8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): I get that the Clippers have regressed some since a very hot start to the year and that the Spurs are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in their last five games. But I still believe that at home, the Clips deserve to be favored in this spot. Consider that earlier in the season, during that hot start, the Clips went to San Antonio and whipped the Spurs 116-92 as 4.5-pt dogs. While this game be that lopsided? Probably not. But after watching what Los Angeles did for me on Tuesday night vs. Denver (I laid the points), I'm confident that they can win this game.

This is the Spurs' second tough road game in the L3 nights. Tuesday saw them go into Houston and snap the Rockets' 10-game win streak. But they had to pull off a desperate rally, culminating w/ a Patty Mills' three-pointer w/ 12.9 seconds remaining, to earn that 102-100 victory. They also benefited from some uncharacteristic poor Houston shooting. The Rockets made only 38% of their total FG attempts and missed 32 of 38 three-pointers. The other teams, save for Boston, that San Antonio has beaten during this win streak of theirs quite frankly haven't been very good. The list includes Brooklyn, New Orleans and Phoenix. Overall, they've shot 10 full percentage points better than their opponents the L5 games. That is a difficult differential to maintain.

In terms of efficiency, the Clippers are 5th on offense while San Antonio is 6th. On defense, the Spurs are 4th and the Clippers are 5th. So that seems like a pretty even matchup to me. The Clippers' only loss over the L6 games was one of those dreaded Sunday afternoon affairs, in Washington, at the end of a three-game Southeast trip. They returned home to blow out Denver on Tuesday, shooting 54.7% from the floor. They did so w/o the services of Blake Griffin and it is his continued absence that can be the only justification for the current number on this game. I think it's an overreaction. The Spurs will be resting Manu Ginobili tonight, by the way. As a road fave of three points or less, the Spurs are a surprisingly poor 4-9 SU and ATS the L3 seasons. This is just the fourth time all year that the Clippers will be an underdog. They are 2-1 SU/ATS previously. 8* LA Clippers

10* Over Warriors/Nets (7:35 ET): Believe it or not, Golden State has now gone Under in eight straight games. While, historically speaking, the team may be the greatest ever in terms of offensive efficiency over a two-year span, they are quite underrated defensively as well. This year finds them currently ranked #2 in defensive efficiency w/ only Memphis ahead of them. In the last game, they held Utah to only 74 points on 35.5% shooting. It was the third consecutive game where the Warriors allowed 90 points or less. But here, they should have a "willing dance partner" in terms of an Over as Brooklyn is pretty horrific at the defensive end (28th in efficiency) and I see the Dubs scoring a lot more here than they did vs. Utah on Tuesday. Take the Over.

Brooklyn is actually fairly competitive at home (6-7 SU) as opposed to the road where they are an awful 1-13 SU. Surprisingly, they are averaging 106.6 points per game this year. However, that scoring average has largely been rendered irrelevant due to a non-existent defense that is permitting an ugly 114.4 PPG. That's the most allowed per game in the league right now, which quite obviously can be problematic when facing the Warriors. Last Saturday, Golden State faced one of the two teams that rank below the Nets in defensive efficiency (Portland) and ended up scoring 135 pts. Thus, they can essentially "name" their point total here. I certainly expect them to top their YTD average of 117.4 PPG (1st in the league) in this one. Since November 14th, the Nets have allowed at least 122 points eight times.

With the highest scoring offense facing off with the worst defense (in terms of PPG allowed), half of the equation here is more than taken care of. But what about the other end of the floor? Well, despite the Warriors' defensive exploits mentioned above, I think it may prove difficult for them to hold a third consecutive opponent below 40% shooting. Brooklyn is due for an uptick in its own shooting percentage as they were held below 40% in their last game, a 116-104 loss at Toronto. This may be one of the highest totals we've seen all year, but these are the two teams whose games average the most total PPG in the league. Brooklyn is also playing at the fastest pace in the league while Golden State is third. That means plenty of possessions. The Nets are 11-1 Over this year vs. the Western Conference. 10* Over Warriors/Nets

10* Air Force (4:00 ET): This will be the second time this week that I'm taking the Flyboys here in Colorado Springs. Monday, I backed them getting points against Colorado. Though Colorado somewhat gifted us the cover w/ some bad FT shooting down the stretch, note that it was also a tie game w/ just under 10 minutes remaining. Air Force outrebounded the Buffs, but all of those achievements are nothing more than Pyrrhic considering it was the Falcons' second straight loss at home and sixth in the last seven games overall. But, I feel the third time will be the charm Thursday in Colorado Springs. What is it with these bad Big West teams? Yesterday's 10* College Hoops play saw me fade Cal State Northridge and today I'll do the same w/ Cal Davis. Lay the points.

Cal Davis snapped its own four-game losing skid last Saturday, but that came at the expense of William Jessup. The Aggies actually burned me by covering last week at North Dakota State, a game where they were getting 10 points. I'm not so sure that the difference between N Dakota State and Air Force is as great as the oddsmakers are making it out to be here. Note that the entirety of Cal Davis' losing streak came away from home, either in a neutral site game (1) or "true" road games (3). I did successfully play against them in a 25-point loss at Cal on December 10th. Save for Cal, it's been a pretty weak schedule for the Aggies to this point. 

These teams have exchanged upset victories each of the last two seasons. In 2014, it was Cal Davis coming here to Colorado Springs and winning outright as 6.5-point pups, 81-75.  The AFA returned the favor last season by winning 67-60 as 4.5-point pups. This year, I say it's time for the favorite to hold serve. Air Force is most certainly the better team here and they're at home. Despite the losing streak, they've arguably been competitive in every game as all but one loss was by single digits. As I continue to harp on, the bottom of the Big West seems to be really bad this year and Air Force is 6-2 ATS its last eight games vs. this conference. I just can't see the Falcons losing a third consecutive home game and the number is small. 10* Air Force

8* Utah (9:05 ET): These teams experienced very different results last night. The Jazz were completely humbled in a 104-74 loss to Golden State. The Kings, paced by 55 points from the enigmatic Boogie Cousins, won a wild one over Portland, 126-121. But let's not allow one night's results to cloud the overall picture of these respective teams. Utah has lost only three times in its last 14 games. Two of those were to Golden State, the other by a single point to Miami. Sacramento, who has yet to post B2B wins this month, is a below average team w/ massive chemistry issues. The Kings have lost SU and failed to cover off their previous six SU wins. The Jazz are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS off a double digit loss this season. Lay the points.

It hardly mattered in the end, but the Jazz did themselves no favors last night by shooting just 35.5% from the floor. Despite coming out of the gate ice cold, they were actually able to hang with the Warriors for a bit, trailing only 19-15 at the end of the first quarter. Utah remains one of the premier defensive teams in the league, especially at home where they give up an average of just 93.5 points per game. They are third in the league in defensive efficiency. Just 11 days ago, they beat Sacramento by 20 here, 104-84 as six-point chalk, limiting them to only 37.8% shooting. My projections say this should be a double-digit line.

Looking at how each team has performed in the second of back to back games also is telling. Sacramento is just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in the spot while Utah is 5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS. The Kings are annually one of the worst defensive teams in the league and a far cry from the Jazz on that end of the floor. To quantify, they rank 24th in efficiency and give up an average of 104.6 PPG. It's safe to say that Cousins won't be scoring 55 points again tonight. The only time in the L13 games that he failed to score at least 20 points was that loss here in Utah 11 days ago. Keep in mind that game saw the Jazz turn the ball over 22 times, leading to 36 Sacramento points, and they still won by 20. Off a season-low in points scored, I expect a major bounce back here from the Jazz at home. 8* Utah

10* Boise State (9:00 ET): This time of year, the faithful on the Boise State campus are typically more concerned with the school's upcoming bowl game. This year, the Broncos' football team will be facing Baylor, next Tuesday, in the Motel 6 Cactus Bowl. But there's also a basketball game taking place on campus tonight and that's against a struggling Cal State Northridge team that is ripe to be routed. I've successfully targeted many of these Big West bottom feeders during this incredible College Hoops run I'm on and one could make the argument that the Matadors are the worst that conference has to offer. They come into tonight only 3-8 SU/2-7 ATS on the season and they've yet to win on the road. Lay the points.

A 100-95 loss to Bethesda on Friday was certainly not a "good look" for Northridge. That's a NCCAA (National Christian College Athletic Association) school for those keeping track. Thus, one could say the Matadors don't have a "prayer" here (heyyyyyy-o!). By the way, that game did not got into overtime. CSN actually allowed 100 pts in regulation to a non D-I school, at home! Bethesda led the entire second half and by as many as 10 at one point. It would be one thing if the Matadors had been playing well previously, but they had not. Two of their three wins this year came in games where they were favored and those wins were both by three points or less. (The other was against a non DI school). So calling for a "bounce back" in this situation seems fruitless. 

Boise State made a strong accounting for itself its last time out, waxing Idaho State 82-59 as 15.5-pt chalk. Ironically, Idaho State is also one of the three teams that Cal State Northridge beat this year. But the Matadors won by only three over the Bengals. Boise State has beaten SMU, a good team, on this floor. They've also gone to Oregon, a top 20 team, and lost by only five. In eight of their 10 games, the Broncos have had the lead at halftime. This is a strong home team as well w/ a 41-1 SU run vs. non-conference foes. Overall, they are 59-8 SU L67 home games. Three-point defense is huge for the Broncos as opponents are only making 4.5 per game against them at a 29% clip. In other words, this is a total mismatch and I look for BSU to end its non-conference slate on a high note. Cal State Northridge may also again be w/o Aaron Parks (undisclosed), who is one of their four double digits scorers. That would really hurt a team w/ little depth. 10* Boise State

8* Oregon (11:00 ET): Oregon, now ranked #20 in the polls (fair ranking), has lost only two times all year. One of those came in their lone "true" road game, at Baylor, all the way back on November 15th. The other came six days later vs. Georgetown in Maui, a game they fell way behind early, only to have a furious second half rally come up just shy. There should be no need for a rally Tuesday evening in Eugene as Fresno State comes to campus. Given what we've seen from the Ducks thus far, I have every reason to believe that this will end up being another blowout adding to their already impressive average margin of victory (+24.6 PPG) here at home. Fresno State, playing its second road game in four days, is off a tough two-point win over Pacific. I question what the Bulldogs have left in the tank here. Lay the points.

Having covered that last game (barely) as 1.5-point favorites, FSU is now 4-0 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS overall. But the competition hasn't been all that impressive and they've actually lost a pair of non-lined games to Prairie View A&M and Cal State Bakersfield. Prairie View A&M is among the worst teams in the entire country and the CS-Bakersfield game was on the road. Since then the Bulldogs have won six of seven, the only loss coming by three at Marquette, but this will be their toughest foe yet. That game on Saturday vs. Pacific saw the Bulldogs nail a pair of free throws in the closing seconds as they erased what had been a five-point deficit w/ just 1:15 to go.

Oregon comes into tonight riding a 32-game home win streak, which is third longest in the nation. They are currently w/o leading scorer Chris Boucher, but Jordan Bell more than picked up the slack w/ 16 pts and 12 rebounds in the 20-point win over UNLV (which took place in Portland) Saturday night. Remember, this Ducks team not only won the Pac 12 last year, they reached the Elite 8. Fresno State has NEVER won in Eugene and has not beaten a Top 25 squad since 2002. Should be an easy one for the Ducks. 8* Oregon

8* Over Nuggets/Clippers (10:35 ET): Recent Denver games have not lacked for scoring. In fact, each of the last three (they've won all of them) have seen a MINIMUM of 224 total points scored. The lowest scoring one was last night's 117-107 victory over Dallas where they shot a blistering 57% from the floor, but also allowed 53.1% shooting by the Mavericks. I don't think for a second that Denver will be able to match last night's offensive output, but from a totals perspective, that will be counteracted by the fact they figure to give up far more points tonight to the Clippers. Remember that Dallas is near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency. The Clippers are top five. Therefore, I expect them to shred an unrested Nuggets defense and score a boatload of points in the process. That will lead to this game going Over the total.

Like the Nuggets, the Clippers have seen an abundance of high scoring affairs recently as well. Sunday's loss to the Wizards was a 117-110 final. There has been only one game all month where they failed to score at least 100 points and that was a loss to Golden State where they finished w/ 98. Over the last five games, they are averaging 115.8 PPG on nearly 50% shooting from the floor. There's no Blake Griffin for the time being, but I still anticipate the points to keep coming. Defensively though, there is a concern as they just allowed the Wizards to shoot 80% percent (!) from the floor in the fourth quarter on Sunday. There has definitely been some "slippage" at the end of the floor since starting the year #1 in defensive efficiency.

Six of the last seven times these teams have met, the Under has cashed (includes one push). But none of those meetings took place this season. Note that Denver did not shoot the ball well in any of the three head to head meetings last year, making less than 40% of their field goal attempts every time. They were particularly brutal from three-point range. Also, free throw shooting numbers were pretty ugly for both sides in those three meetings. We should see better percentages tonight and an Over to boot. Over is 13-2 when Clips are facing a team w/ a losing record & 8-1 when Nuggets are facing a team w/ a winning record. 8* Over Nuggets/Clippers

10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): The Clippers lost on Sunday afternoon, at Washington, 117-110 as a 5.5-point favorite. I've said it many times before, but those random non-nationally televised Sunday afternoon games sure seem to always favor the home team, don't they. For the Clips, that outright loss capped an 0-3 ATS trek through the Southeast. Previously, they had failed to cover in wins over Orlando and Miami. The fact that it was their third road game in five nights also helps explain why the team lost outright in D.C. But Tuesday night, they're back home and playing a team that is w/o rest, that being Denver. I see this as being a "get well game" for Los Angeles, who should roll to victory despite not having Blake Griffin. Lay the points.

Denver got me last night, beating Dallas 117-107 and just covering the 8.5-point spread. It was a game they trailed early, by as many as 12. I still stand behind the play, but let's remember that Dallas is among the worst teams in the league. The Clippers are among the very best. The entirety of the Nuggets' current three-game win streak came at home against below average opponents. Their last road trip not only saw them lose at Dallas, but go 2-4 SU overall w/ one of the wins coming at Philadelphia's expense. This is a very bad team defensively (26th in efficiency) and they are not going to shoot 57% from the floor again, like they did last night vs. Dallas.

The Clippers started the season on an other-worldly pace in defensive efficiency, but have since regressed some to 5th place overall. Still, that's a good ranking to have. They also rank fifth in offensive efficiency, making them the only team besides Golden State to rank in the top five at both ends of the floor. Here at home, they are outscoring teams by 10.6 points per game. I would certainly have them as a double-digit fave for this one. Anything less is a bargain in my estimation as the Nuggets are bound to give up a ton of points in this one. 10* LA Clippers

10* James Madison (7:00 ET): Very little has gone right for James Madison so far this season. Case in point, they couldn't even manage a cover (as underdogs) against Appalachian State on Saturday despite the game going into OT. The Dukes were outscored 14-2 in the extra period, thereby ensuring they would NOT cover the 3.5-point spread. While close throughout, JMU led at the half and was up three w/ just six seconds remaining in regulation. So they were actually outscored 17-2 over the final 5:06. The loss leaves the Dukes at a rather ugly 1-9 SU this season as well as 1-7 ATS. The lone cover came at old CAA rival George Mason back on 11.26 while the lone SU win came at the expense of non-board team Longwood on 12.3

That all being said, I see some value on the Dukes in this spot as they get set to host Richmond. Obviously, they should feel somewhat "robbed" of the cover their last time out. Not only that, but this team has lost four other games by seven points or less, so it's not as if they're being routinely blown out. They also get to return home for the 1st time since 11.23. That's nearly a full month, if you're keeping score at home. This team has played just three home games thus far and while I faded them in an ugly loss to Rice early in the year, we've now come full circle. They're now hosting a team that they've beaten outright each of the last two seasons!

I'm not sure that Richmond deserves to be favored on the road, even against a 1-9 opponent. The Spiders are also in off a loss, theirs coming at home to Texas Tech. That will be a tough loss to get over as TT is a good team and Richmond had the lead at half. But they were down by as many as 17 in the second half before rallying. Also, there was a scary situation with freshman Grant Golden collapsing on the bench. Now playing as a road favorite for the 1st time in 2016, this is a tough spot for the Spiders. They are just 1-2 ATS as favorites so far this season, including an outright loss to another old CAA rival of JMU's, that being Old Dominion. The Spiders are just 2-11 ATS in the month of December the L2 years and have lost outright three of the past four times they've been road chalk of 3.5 to 6 pts. 10* James Madison

8* Dallas (9:05 ET): For the most part, it has been a miserable season thus far for the once proud Mavericks. Perhaps Mark Cuban is spending too much time worrying about "Shark Tank," because the roster of his basketball team is the weakest its been since buying the organization. However, while the team is still tied (w/ Philadelphia) for the worst overall record in the league at 7-20 straight up, there have been some positive developments of late. Such as blowing out Sacramento last night, 99-79, for their third win in the last six games. They are 4-2 ATS over that span, including a close loss to Utah in a national TV game Friday night. Here, they drop in class to take on a Denver team that I simply don't believe is worthy of laying this much weight. Take the points.

Since returning home from a six-game trip out East, the Nuggets have responded w/ B2B double digit victories over Portland and New York. Those teams are among the very worst defensively in the entire league. Dallas' issue is on the offensive end where they rank 27th in the league in efficiency. Sure enough, they've held three of the last four opponents to 95 points or less. Denver, meanwhile, is 25th in defensive efficiency and was fortunate that those last two opponents are among the select group below them in that department. In each of the last four games, the Nuggets have given up at least 112 points. None of those games went to overtime. Again, those are not the kind of defensive numbers you'd want to see when laying points in this price range.

One of those four games was a 112-92 loss at Dallas. One could make the argument that it was the Nuggets' worst game of the season. Whatever happened there, I certainly think that the oddsmakers have failed to adjust for this rematch as they basically are saying both teams are the same since then. I believe the Mavs have steadily improved as is evident by last night's performance. Six players scored in double figures and defensively it was season-best effort in terms of points allowed. The Mavs never trailed in the game. I can only assume that like the Wizards, we are seeing a team undervalued due to being in the second of B2B games. 8* Dallas

10* Air Force (9:00 ET): These are in-state foes, remember. Colorado has won and covered its last three visits here to Colorado Springs and also beat the AFA last season in Boulder, 81-70, albeit they failed to cash as 15-pt chalk. For this year's matchup, I do not like the setup for the Buffaloes perspective. This will be their second game in three days and while the last one was a "cupcake," only beating Fort Hayes State by 10 points is a bit of a troubling sight. Meanwhile, the Flyboys have been off since December 10th when they lost here at home to Denver. That was their first home loss of the year after starting 6-0 SU, so grabbing the points seems ideal and a nice value. Air Force has lost five of six, but most of the losses have been close.

The AFA has run into some red-hot shooting opponents of late, most notably Denver, who finished the game at a blistering 56.9% from the field.The Pioneers got a career-best effort from Daniel Amigo, who finished w/ 33 points. It was a similar story on 12.7 at Army as the Cadets shot better than 50 percent. But the time off should help shore up the defense and quite frankly Colorado isn't a good shooting team anyway. The Buffs are barely above 40% from the field the L5 games, which cost them games vs. Colorado State and BYU. Earlier, I spoke of the fact that the AFA has played well at home this year. They are averaging 85.6 PPG here and outscoring opponents by 16.7 points per game. They are also 8-2 ATS the L10 times taking the court w/ at least seven days rest.

Colorado HC Tad Davis did not mince words concerning his team's performance Saturday, the second half in particular, despite coming out on the winning end. "This team has two things going for it right now," Boyle said. "Number one, they own the most-disappointing loss in that seven-year span, the Colorado State game a few weeks ago. And now they also can add to that, that they own the most-disappointing win." Beating a D-II school by only 10 pts at home, following a long break, is certainly not a "good look." Yes, CU led by as many as 21 in the first half. But they barely outrebounded Fort Hayes State and allowed a player (Rob Davis) to score 29 pts after halftime.  The Buffs are just 7-19 SU in "true" road games the L3 seasons. 10* Air Force

8* Detroit (8:05 ET): Something I failed to mention in the Washington-Indiana analysis is just how log-jammed the Eastern Conference is at the present time. After Cleveland and Toronto, there are nine teams separated by just 2.5 games in the standings, all but one (15-12 Boston) within two games over .500 either way. Like Washington & Indiana, count Detroit & Chicago among that group. The two Central Division rivals meet Monday night in the Second City and despite the fact both teams appear to be on a downward trajectory, I favor the Pistons in this one. They have lost B2B games as favorites, ironically to Washington and Indiana, but have typically shown a strong propensity to bounce back from such defeats, going 24-9 ATS when off an outright loss as a favorite the L3 seasons. The Bulls have lost three in a row straight up and are just 1-7 ATS the L8 games. Take the points.

I have to admit that Chicago's strong play at the outset of the season really surprised me. I did not like the offseason that they had and though the Dwyane Wade signing was completely overrated as it did not really "fit" the roster. Early on, offensive efficiency was shockingly good, but the team has since regressed in that department, hitting a new low in Friday's 95-69 home loss to Milwaukee. In that game, the team shot a dismal 30.4% from the floor. Obviously, it is highly unlikely that they'll be that bad again, but to what degree do they improve? There are major questions surrounding HC Fred Hoiberg's tenure here as it's looking more and more like he was a lousy choice to succeed Tom Thibodeau.

Meanwhile, I have far more faith in Pistons' HC Stan Van Gundy to right his ship. Remember, I had this team in a road win over Dallas last Wednesday. Since then, they've lost B2B games by double digits. That prompted the dreaded "players only meeting," but unlike in Chicago, I do not feel there is any kind of serious disconnect between the players and the coach. Detroit beat Chicago earlier this year, 102-91 (at home) as 5.5-pt favorites. Not sure why there would be any kind of positive adjustment by the linesmakers for the Bulls here, given that they are playing worse now. 8* Detroit

8* Washington (7:05 ET): In the interest of full disclosure, the Wizards were my pick to win the Southeast Division prior to the start of the year (expected a tight battle between them and Charlotte). But the season got off to an awful start for the Wiz, leaving myself (and many others I'm sure!) to re-evaluate just where this team stood. Well, all of a sudden, they're starting to play well as is evident by three consecutive SU wins, all as underdogs. Yesterday, they beat the Clippers at home, 117-110, not needing the +5.5 the linesmakers were giving them. They are now 5-1 SU/ATS L6 and I can only assume it is the fact they are playing the second of back to back games that they are getting this many points against the Pacers. Because I have the Wizards rated as the better team here. Take the points.

Indiana is also off an upset win, theirs coming back on Saturday when they went to Detroit and beat the Pistons, 105-90 as 4.5-pt dogs. That win enabled them to avoid what would have been a winless road trip as they'd previously dropped games at Miami and New Orleans. Indiana is another team I'd classify as an "early season disappointment," far more so than Washington at this point. One thing I'd like to point out is that the Pacers shouldn't go into this game thinking they'll be dealing w/ another cold-shooting opponent. The Pistons shot just 38.1% against them on Saturday, but the Wizards have shot better than 50% in every game during the three-game win streak. Bradley Beal scored 41 points yesterday. 

In evaluating these teams, they grade out as remarkably similar w/ the Wiz just slightly better. So, again, I think the road team is being undervalued due to being in the second of B2B road games. Admittedly, it's a role that hasn't treated them well thus far in 2016, but note that Indiana is 0-4 both SU and ATS coming off a SU dog win this season. It would seem that the game taking place at Bankers Life Fieldhouse would favor the Pacers given that they are 10-4 SU at home and the Wizards are 2-8 SU on the road. But the road team won all three head to head meetings last year. In a battle this even, taking the points is the way to go, especially w/ the hotter team. 8* Washington

10* Tennessee (4:00 ET): It's no secret that I've been targeting the rapidly dwindling number of unbeaten teams left in the country. That number is still six after Saturday, though the weakest of the bunch (USC) got a major scare from 22-point underdog Troy (who I was on) as did UCLA and Creighton. Aside from defending National Champion Villanova, I don't believe any of the other unbeatens are among the very best in the nation, though everyone except USC belongs in the top 25. One of those teams is Gonzaga, who takes the court for the first time in eight days. The Zags have yet to play a "true" road game and while this one isn't on Tennessee's campus, you still have to figure it will be quite the partisan crowd in Nashville at the Bridgestone Arena (home of the NHL's Predators). I'm taking the points. 

Though Gonzaga arrives here at 10-0 SU and off three consecutive covers, they have had some close calls thus far. Three times they've won by seven points or less, against Iowa State, Florida and Arizona. Those games were all contested at far more "neutral" sites than this one. Last time we saw them, they drubbed poor Akron 61-43, a game where the Zips shot a miserable 26.7% from the field. It was a similar story for Gonzaga's previous opponent, Washington, who was held to 30.4%. Fortunately for our sake, Tennessee comes in shooting 46.9% for the year. They've been above 45% in each of the L6 games, four times making more than they missed.

At the same time, the Vols have done an excellent job defending, the three-point line in particular. None of their L5 opponents have shot 45% from the field and for the year teams are shooting below 30% from behind the arc against them. Tennessee is no stranger to playing elite teams this year as this will be the fourth Top 20 foe that they've faced. They're a perfect 3-0 ATS against Oregon, Wisconsin and North Carolina and actually led the Tar Heels for much of the second half, in Chapel Hill, last Saturday. While Gonzaga's been off, the Vols have played twice this week, blowing out both Tennessee Tech and Lipscomb. This is a revenge spot as well from an eight-point loss in Seattle last year. 10* Tennessee

8* Troy (10:30 ET): With two weeks to go in the calendar year, six unbeaten teams remain in College Basketball. One of them, USC, is significantly worse than the rest. (Admittedly, Villanova is also appreciably better than the other four). Therefore, I'll fade the Trojans here against an opponent of their same namesake. Though part of the Las Vegas Classic, note this is still a home game for USC, who has now cracked the top 25 in the AP Poll. But they still haven't cracked my own top 25, nor are they that close to doing so. (Top 35 is more appropriate). Despite missing Bennie Boatright, they still haven't been tested recently, but I'll call for that to change in this late Saturday night start. Charles Buggs is also listed as questionable here w/ a hamstring injury.

Troy has taken advantage of a pretty light schedule here in December in rolling to three consecutive victories over non-lined foes. Last time out, these Trojans blew out Point University 114-52, the second time they've topped 100 pts against a non-DI foe this year. Scoring has dipped rather dramatically when they take their act out on the road, but this is still a big pointspread for a team that has lost by more than 12 pts only one time this year. A 1-5 ATS record has just as much to do w/ this spread as does USC's surprising start and as we so often see, this confluence has led to an overreaction by the marketplace. In my estimation, this spread should be several points lower.

Boatright was considered to be one of the best power forwards in the nation, so his loss is significant. Buggs is not really a major contributor, but his potential absence still thins the roster. Granted, USC had no trouble w/ Pepperdine on Sunday (won 93-67), their only game in the last two weeks. But I can't see a duplication of their red-hot shooting from that game (56.6%!), nor is Troy likely to shoot the ball as poorly as Pepper

10* Under Rockets/T'wolves (8:05 ET): This Houston team is red hot right now. They have yet to lose in the month of December, winning nine straight, a streak which began w/ a win over the Warriors. Predictably, the offense has been very efficient under HC Mike D'Antoni as they rank third in the league plus are averaging 122.8 points per game. They just set an NBA record w/ 24 made three-pointers in a 122-100 rout of the Pelicans last night, so Minnesota better be ready to play some defense. The T'wolves are in off a rare win, having upset Chicago 99-94 (rallied from 21 down) in a national TV game earlier in the week. They've had three days off, rare in today's NBA, so they should indeed be ready. I'm thinking Under in this matchup as the total seems too high despite the Rockets exploits.

Minnesota has plenty of young talent, but it has yet to translate into wins, especially here at home where they're only 3-9 SU. They'd lost eight of nine overall before beating the Bulls Tuesday, a game where they allowed only 94 points (fewest in any game this month). It's not like the T'wolves aren't used to facing some of the top offenses in the game, in fact, they've recently taken on the two teams that rank higher the Houston in efficiency, Toronto and Golden State. They did allow an average of 120 PPG in those contests (both losses), but I like the idea that they're more rested coming into this game while the opponent is not. On offense, the team is averaging only 99.6 points its last five games. The two times we've seen a O/U line of 220+ for this team (both times against Golden State), the Under is 2-0.

These teams have met seven times the last two seasons and the Over is a perfect 7-0. But, it's "high time" for things to go the other way. This will likely close as the highest total for any of those past matchups. Houston, playing the second game of a back to back, isn't likely to come anywhere close to last night's awesome three-point production (they attempted 61!). By the way, the Under did cash in last night's game as they held the Pelicans to just 100 points. That was the fifth time in the last six games, the Rockets held their opponent to 100 pts or less. 10* Under Rockets/T'wolves

10* California (8:00 ET): Last Saturday, Cal was my 10* Game of the Week and the Bears treated me well w/ a 86-61 win over UC Irvine. They haven't played since and a week later we find them drawing another overmatched Big West opponent. That would be Cal Poly, who has said "goodbye" to home for the remainder of 2016 as the Mustangs are embarking on a six-game trip which will lead into the start of conference play. Granted, this isn't a long trip, but it's a daunting one given that Cal is now at full strength and looking good. Cal Poly has already lost to one Pac 12 team, Arizona State, by 22 earlier in the year. Cal is a significantly better team than ASU, so lay the points here.

Cal Poly, like Cal, was off all week due to exams. Unlike the Bears, they lost their last game. It was a double-digit defeat at the hands of Fresno State to start this six-game trip. Again, that's a much inferior squad compared to what they'll face here. The Mustangs trailed by as many as 20 points last Saturday and matched their lowest offensive output of the season (59 points) due to some pretty dreadful shooting (19 of 51 from the field). It was the second time in three games that they scored only 59 pts, which is not a good sign here against a Cal team playing excellent defense. Extended rest has never helped the Mustangs in the past as they're just 1-6 ATS the last seven tries taking the court w/ at least five or six days rest. They had been off a whole week prior to playing Fresno State as well.

Cal has allowed more than 65 points in a game just once all season. Here in Berkeley, where they are undefeated (7-0, winning by an avg of 17 PPG), they are holding teams to 59 PPG on 36.7% shooting. So it promises to be a long night for Cal Poly on the offensive end here. This is a big game as Cal can set a new school record w/ a 27th consecutive victory at home!  As I mentioned in my writeup last week, the Bears are now healthier than they've been all season. Having Ivan Raab also helps as the preseason All-American is averaging 14.9 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. But it is freshman Charlie Moore now leading the way w/ 17.6 PPG. The Bears have three double-digit scorers and are a top 16 team nationally in rebounding and points allowed. This shapes up as another mismatch for them at Haas Pavillion. This team will be a threat in the Pac 12 this year. 10* California

8* Under Mavericks/Jazz (10:35 ET): When one of the least efficient offenses meets one of the slowest paced teams, the elements for a successful Under bet are definitely present. That's precisely what we have here as Dallas (29th in off efficiency) meets Utah (29th in pace) Friday night in ESPN. Oh by the way, the Mavericks are the one team in the league playing at a slower pace than Utah, so we actually have the two slowest paced teams in the league facing off here! Thus, the number of possessions should be severely limited. The Jazz have also gone Under in three consecutive games thanks to some pretty fantastic defense. Take the Under here.

This Jazz team is quite good. They've won 9 of 11 overall. One of the two losses was to Golden State while the other came by a single point (vs. Miami). They are off B2B 20-pt victories coming into tonight, both of those taking place at home. The first was Sacramento, then Oklahoma City. Those two opponents were limited to 84 and 89 points respectively on 37% shooting. Though tonight's total is lower than either of those games, I can safely project that Utah will not match its shooting from Wednesday night where they blitzed the Thunder to the tune of 58.3% from the floor. I see them having little difficulty keeping the Mavs in check here, considering they already did it earlier in the year (more on that in a bit).

Dallas is not a good team, particularly on the road. I played against the Wednesday as they lost at home to Detroit, 95-85. It was their fifth time being held under 90 points in the last nine games. On the road this year, things have grown real dire as in a 1-11 SU record w/ just 91.1 PPG scored. Utah is allowing just 93.0 PPG at home this year, so again, they'll have little trouble containing the Dallas offense. Overall, Utah ranks #3 in defensive efficiency. As briefly touched upon above, these teams did meet here in Salt Lake earlier this year and the final result was 97-81 Jazz w/ the Mavs shooting a woeful 42.9% from the floor, including 7 of 26 from three-point land. 8* Under Mavericks/Jazz

10* Charlotte (7:35 ET): The Eastern Conference pecking order has two clear top teams (Cleveland and Toronto) and a large grouping of contenders below them. These two are part of that large grouping. Currently, Charlotte is in third place despite having lost their last three games. Right behind them (as in one-half game) is Boston, who likewise is on a three-game losing streak. So something will have to give here and while Kemba Walker is injured and unlikely to play, I still see the Hornets staying within the number. This is a revenge spot for the road team, who lost to the Celtics at home early in the year. The road team has enjoyed an unusual amount of success when these teams meet, as in four consecutive SU victories. Thus, I'll take the points.

Charlotte figured to lose the first-game of this current five-game trek as they were in Cleveland. Sure enough, lose they did, 116-105 as eight-point underdogs. But they were favored at both Indiana and Washington, games they also lost SU. As a team, they shot the ball well at Washington (51.4%), but unfortunately the Wizards did the same and there were also an uncharacteristic 18 turnovers from the Hornets. Note that Walker did play in that game, so that was not the reason for the turnovers. Walker is missing this game for a "personal reason" and Ramon Sessions will start in his place. Even w/o Walker, I expect the good shooting from the Washington game to carryover here as the team is still only at 42.2% the L5 games, which is well below their season average.

It's pretty remarkable how even these teams seem to be on paper. Both average exactly 104.3 PPG. Charlotte allows the same number of PPG on the road as Boston does at home (103.7). However, overall, the Hornets are allowing 0.7 PPG less for the year. They also average exactly one point per game more on the road compared to the Celtics at home. Thus, I am left to assume that tonight's larger than expected spread is a byproduct of Walker's absence and Walker's absence alone. It is an overreaction in my estimation and I question what Boston may have left in the tank here after such a difficult stretch of games. 10* Charlotte

10* Miami (FL): These two Floridian schools are both coming off long breaks (exams) and big wins. The last time we saw Miami FL, they were drubbing a clearly overmatched South Carolina State squad, 82-46 (non-lined game). That same day (December 6th), Florida Atlantic pulled of a major upset in beating Ohio State, in Columbus, as 20-pt underdogs. While the Owls have been competitive this year (three losses by four points or less), I feel the upset of OSU has created a situation where they're getting far too much respect from the market here. Miami is a better team than the Buckeyes and thus deserving of a higher price range. Yes, some adjustment must be made for FAU's win, but this would be a classic overadjustment. Lay the points.

Florida Atlantic has played three "true" road games to this point and all have been decided by two points or less! That's two losses (Hawaii & UT Martin) plus the stunner in Columbus. How did the Owls upset the Buckeyes, you ask? Well, first let's point out the game went into overtime. FAU had to rally back from an 11-point second half deficit just to get the extra five minutes of game time and they were clearly aided by a bevy of Buckeyes' turnovers and missed three-pointers. The key to the upset, as it often is in this sport, was beyond the three-point arc where FAU went 10 of 25 and Ohio State was just 4 of 20. Perhaps the long break between games somewhat mitigates the concept of a "letdown" taking place here, but I still think the Owls are drastically overmatched heading into Coral Gables.

The U is not ranked currently, but to me they are on the fringes of the Top 25. (For the record, they are in the "others receiving votes" category). Their only two losses this year have been to Iowa State and Florida, both on a neutral court. Those are both Top 20 teams, IMO, and they were actually favored over ISU (small dog vs. Florida). Those two losses begat a four-game ATS slide, so many may be wary of laying this kind of weight, but note that the 'Canes just missed out on covering similar DD spreads vs. Wofford and Rutgers. Teams are shooting just 36.2% against The U for the season. Meanwhile, The U is shooting 47%. FAU can enjoy the hiring of Lane Kiffin because this game will not go well. 10* Miami FL

10* Under Blazers/Nuggets (9:05 ET): These teams have met twice previously this season w/ the Over cashing both times. But from the Under's "perspective," I believe the third time will be the charm as this is (predictably) the highest O/U line yet. Portland, while there still is much work to be done, seems to have gotten its defense under some control. They just held Oklahoma City to 95 points in a much needed win Tuesday night, at home, on ESPN. As for Denver, they are returning home from a six-game trip that had them out East and lethargy could certainly be a factor in their first game back in the thin air. They scored only 92 pts in an embarrassing loss at Dallas the last time we saw them. Take the Under here.

Though the Over cashed in the November 13th meeting, it's not like either of these two sides shot the ball well when they faced off last. Both were sub 40% from the field, but through sheer volume (58 total attempts), the three-ball was a factor. So too were free throws as they combined for 48 makes from the line. I envision we'll see a decrease there. In Denver's last game, they made only 15 FT's. Portland shot 53.8% from the floor against OKC, but I can't see them matching that percentage here now that they're out on the road. These are two of the top Over teams in the league right now, but this is also among the highest totals either has seen all season.

Denver may have been a disaster defensively in its last game, giving up 65 first half points to Dallas, but there is no way they'll be that bad again here, I guarantee you. There is reportedly a "pretty good" chance that guard Gary Harris will return tonight after missing the last 16 games. Portland will also again be w/o forward Al Farouq-Aminu, who was a late scratch vs. OKC. Something else I'd like to point out is that while the first meeting of the year, played on 10.29 here in Denver, went Over, that was only because of overtime. It was a 104-104 game at the end of regulation. The Under has cashed three of the four times Portland has been off a DD win this season. 10* Under Blazers/Nuggets

10* Murray State (8:00 ET): We have a relatively "short" number that a SEC school is laying against a so-called "mid-major." It's for good reason. The fact that Ole Miss checked in at #26 in the RPI heading into their last game (80-75 loss at Va Tech) shows just how flawed that particular metric is. The far more reliable KenPom ratings have them 93rd, which is about where Vegas has them as well. That game at Virginia Tech, the Rebels' first "true" road date of the season, saw them trail the entire second half and fall behind by as many as 14. Defensively, there are major issues in Oxford and I think those will cost them tonight laying this number against an always dangerous Murray State squad. 

This may not be the finest edition of Murray State basketball that we've seen through the years, but the Racers are deadly in this spot nonetheless. Yes, they've failed to cover their last five lined games, losing outright twice as a favorite. But they were at least able to build some confidence by blowing out NAIA school Bethel, 103-65 on Monday. While the Racers have yet to win B2B games this season, this will be the most points they've been catching so far. They covered as 9-point pups in the second game of the year, at Middle Tennessee, who is a better team that Ole Miss. Don't believe me? The Blue Raiders beat the Rebels 77-62 in Oxford on November 30th! That loss to Middle Tennessee is one of three for Murray State this year to come by six points or less (11 pts total).

In nine games this season, Ole Miss has allowed at least eight made three-pointers eight times. Overall, they are giving up over 80 PPG. There's been only one game all year where they didn't allow at least 77 points. That's good for the underdog here as the Racers come in averaging 80 PPG and that's even after the dreadful shooting performance last week at Evansville. Ole Miss allowed Va Tech to sink 10 three-pointers on Sunday. Note that Murray State's Ohio Valley Conference rival UT Martin came here to Oxford and nearly won outright (as 17-pt dogs), losing by just three. That's one of three wins by five points or less so far for the Rebels. Murray State, while yet to play a Power 5 team, has scored at least 73 points in every game but one, that being the disaster that occurred vs. Evansville. Ole Miss has covered only four times this season, twice in losses where they were the underdogs and twice as a fave of 4.5 pts or less. The number is too high here. 10* Murray State

8* UC Santa Barbara (10:30 ET): On paper, this shapes up as a colossal mismatch and there's no way I can stump for UCSB to win this game straight up. But at some point, the market has to run some "interference" and that's what I believe will take place here as the Gauchos' 0-5 ATS record should be remedied by what will certainly be the largest spread they'll face all season. Of course, there's a reason for this spread and the reason happens to be UCLA is unbeaten and rolling. The Bruins are 10-0 SU, ranked #2 in the country and have covered the spread in each of their last seven games. But they're due for a bit of an "off night" at least once, right? After high-profile games against Kentucky and Michigan, I'l call for that "off night" to take place here.

Note that in three of UCSB's five lined games, they have been the betting favorite. That includes Sunday's 77-68 loss to San Diego where they were 2.5-pt chalk on the road. Missing on 18 of 23 three-point attempts, plus going just 9 of 17 from the FT line did the Gauchos no favors in that one, especially w/ the Toreros making 12 three-point FG's and making over 90% of their own FT attempts. Going from a road favorite to near 30-pt underdog is quite the swing here for UCSB and while this is a really tough opponent, it's not like they haven't faced some strong competition. Already this season, they have played at both SMU and USC, the latter of whom is also still undefeated (though not nearly as strong as UCLA). Yes, UCSB's lone win thus far came against a non-DI school. But I believe they'll compete here.

At some point, UCLA HAS to cool off from three-point range. Right now, they are shooting an unsustainable 47.1% from behind the arc and Saturday vs. Michigan saw them go 15 of 24 from there and shoot 67.2% overall from the field!! In seven of 10 games, this team has now scored at least 97 points. Again, this cannot possibly continue. One thing I would worry about if I were a Bruins fan is defense as opponents are also shooting 40% from 3-pt range against them here at Pauley Pavillion. It was a 50-50 game (literally, that was the score) at halftime Saturday vs. Michigan. Hold your nose and take the boatload of points here. 8* UC Santa Barbara

8* Detroit (8:35 ET): Off an embarrassing loss (to Philadelphia!), I expect the Pistons to bounce back in a major way this evening as they face the team w/ the worst record in the league. That would be Dallas, whose fall from grace has been swift and harsh in 2016. The days of Dirk Nowitzki leading an efficient offense here are long gone and in fact Nowitzki isn't even playing these days. The Mavs have won their last two home games, both as small underdogs, but those came against subpar foes. One was Indiana, a situation where I actually was ON Dallas. The other was their last time out, arguably the best performance of the season when they blew out Denver 112-92. A repeat of the last game - for either team here - is unlikely.

For awhile, the Mavs had the least efficient offense in the entire league. They've worked their way up to 27th, but Monday's effort was definitely a surprise as six players scored in double figures en route to the team posting a season-high for most points in a half (65). But I am not buying that performance as the start of anything permanent. Not only is this team last in points per game (93.5), they're also last in rebounds and 29th in assists. So, yeah, they're really bad. An undrafted rookie, Dorian-Finney Smith, is seeing time as a starter currently. Again, we've seen a couple upsets from this team lately, but those came against teams worse than the Pistons. Dallas is also 0-4 SU/ATS this season after scoring 105+ points the previous game.

Detroit is a team better than its record. I say that because they're an unfortunate 0-3 SU in games decided by three points or less this year. That's tied for the most losses w/o a win in that situation in the entire league. Now it wasn't a close game at all when they lost to the Sixers 97-79 on Sunday (as 12-pt road favorites), but that was one of those dreaded early Sunday start times that always seem to favor the home side. As I said earlier, coming off such an embarrassing defeat, I expect SVG to have his team ready to go in this one. I just can't see the Pistons losing to two of the worst teams in the league, back to back, even on the road. They are 23-8 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite the L3 seasons. 8 * Detroit

10* North Dakota State (8:00 ET): North Dakota State is a university known for football and this Saturday will see the Bison square off w/ James Madison in the FCS semifinals. But it's the school's basketball team that I'm interested in tonight as they're at home, off a home loss. The 74-56 home loss to in-state rival North Dakota exactly one week ago dropped the Bison to 0-5 at the betting window on the still young season and was the second time they lost outright as favorites. But tonight in Fargo, I see them bouncing back in a major way against poor Cal Davis, who was the victim of my 10* Game of the Week selection on Saturday when they lost at Cal 86-61, the third consecutive time they've tasted defeat. Lay the points here.

It's hard to envision what Cal Davis might have left in the tank here. This is their third straight road game to start December and, in fact, 10 of their 11 games this season have been played on the road or at neutral sites! In my analysis Saturday, I spoke of the Aggies' propensity to turn the ball over too much and how they were subpar at both ends of the court. Nothing I saw in Berkeley changed my mind. They turned it over a season-high 21 times against Cal and shot a woeful 17 of 42 on two-point attempts. Going into halftime, it was a 39-18 game and whether or not Cal would cover the 17-pt spot was the only question. Did I mention the Aggies also allowed the Bears to shoot 56.5% from the field?

NDSU has dropped three of four and this will be the final non-conference home game before Summit League play begins. With a three-game road trip looming, which includes a game at Arkansas, it's really critical for the Bison to win here to build some "momentum." (hate that word!). Fortunately, UC Davis should be a willing "dance partner." These teams met in LY's season opener and it was NDSU winning on the road, 79-71, as three-point chalk (actually trailed by six at halftime). I think the combination of a week off + looking to atone for a home loss has the Bison ready to go here. They are giving up just 63.8 PPG this season and have covered three of the last four times they've played w/ five plus days rest. 10* North Dakota State

10* Morehead State (9:05 ET): My, oh my, what a curious line this is. We have the home team (Eastern Washington), winners of six straight, laying just the "token" three points to our side, which has lost six straight. If you think something is "rotten in Denmark" here, you're not alone. A clear trap has been set here by the oddsmakers and it's one that I, personally, will not be falling for. Note that while EWU has won its last six games, two of those (against the same opponent!) have come in double overtime, another in just single OT plus and two more were decided by six points or less. Save for the last game, a 103-76 win over non-lined Great Falls, this has been one of the least dominant six-game win streaks that I can recall. Take the points.

The team that Eastern Washington beat twice in double overtime, in a 12-day span mind you, is Seattle. The first occasion took place on 11.22. The game saw EWU tie the game up on a three-pointer w/ less than six seconds to go in both regulation and the 1st OT. The second time around, this time at Seattle (on 12.4), saw them have to rally back from a 14-pt deficit in the second half. The Eagles also had to rally from a halftime deficit to defeat Denver in OT here at home on 11.27. "Way back" on 11.21, they benefited from 34 FT attempts and a career game from Bogdan Bliznyuk to beat Bryant by only four. Free throws were again key in a six-point win over San Francisco on 11.27 as the Eagles were 23 of 26 from the charity stripe while the Dons were just 14 of 22. That game also saw EWU have to rally from a seven-point halftime deficit. So, what I'm saying is that this team is extraordinarily lucky to be 7-2 SU right now. 

Morehead State would obviously "kill" to have that record, but I see more positive things on the horizon for these Eagles tonight. There's a bit of controversy here as HC Sean Woods (former player at Kentucky) is still suspended as an investigation takes place over his treatment of players. But the real issue for Morehead State has been their opponents simply can't miss from three-point range. Their last two opponents, Purdue and Lipscomb, have combined to 30 of 55 (54.5%) from behind the arc! That's insane. (Note the Eagles had beaten Lipscomb earlier in the year). That doesn't even include ridiculously hot shooting games from Pitt and Evansville either. This can't all be blamed on the Morehead State defense either as they are quite good at forcing steals (8.8 per game, which is 24th in the country) and have a 1.4 assist to turnover ratio, which leads their conference (OVC). This was pegged to be one of the top teams in the Ohio Valley this season and I see them going to Cheney and picking up a road win. 10* Morehead State

8* Under Grizzlies/Cavs (7:05 ET): While I see the Cavs winning this one in blowout fashion, it won't be in their usual high-scoring mode. That's because they are facing a Memphis team that not only has gone Under in four consecutive contests, but also plays at the third slowest pace in the entire league. Earlier in the year, Cleveland did score 128 pts on the team that plays at the slowest pace in the league (Dallas), but the Mavs are terrible. The Grizzlies can certainly be more stout defensively as they showed Saturday when they held Golden State (#1 in offensive efficiency) to a shockingly low 89 points. The game before they held Portland to only 86 points on 30.5% shooting. Take the Under here (and the number is dropping!).

Cleveland has scored at least 100 pts in all but three games this year and two were losses, one w/o LeBron James. So it's clear that we'll need Memphis to struggle offensively in this one and fortunately that's what I'm projecting. Yes, the Cavs have been a bit disappointing at the defensive end of the floor this year, but that's due in part to building large leads after the first quarter. That's not how I see this particular game unfolding. Memphis plays at too slow a pace for that to happen. But that being said, they also are shooting a pretty woeful 42% from the floor for the season and just 40.9% in the L5 games. I should also point out that Memphis games are currently the lowest scoring in the league at 195.6 PPG.

The fact that the Grizzlies have also held their last five opponents to an average of 94.8 PPG on 39.2% shooting also bodes well here. Cleveland cannot possibly maintain its ridiculously hot shooting from the L2 games as it shot 55.4% against Miami and then 57.5% against Charlotte. LeBron James, as per usual, was just sensational vs. the Hornets w/ a 44-9-10 statline and he did so on 17 of 24 shooting. But as phenomenal a performer as he is, he likely won't be duplicating that here. Also encouraging is that the Cavs have held their last five opponents to 42.6% shooting from the field. 8* Under Grizzlies/Cavs

10* Under Nets/Rockets (8:05 ET): I fully understand that the matchup of Brooklyn's awful defense against Houston's efficient offense could be problematic when playing the Under, but the fact remains this is one of the highest totals we've seen all year in the NBA. Neither team's games are within 10 points of where this number might close at, so the value is on the Under here. Granted, Brooklyn has been a bit of an "Over machine" lately, going that way in each of the last four games and the last one saw them give up 130 to San Antonio. That makes them 10-0 Over this year vs. Western Conference foes! But this is set to be the highest O/U line for any Nets game all season and it will be close for the Rockets as well (only a game vs. GSW currently higher). Again, the value here is on the Under.

Entering tonight's action, the Nets are allowing a league-high 114.9 points per game. That number jumps to 118.2 on the road and what's really frightening is that they've allowed at least 111 in 13 consecutive games. But it still takes "two to tango" and even if the Nets' defensive ineptitude continues, I do not believe it will be enough to send this game Over. I say that because all of a sudden Houston has held three consecutive opponents under 100 points and that includes Oklahoma City. The Under has actually cashed more times this season for the Rockets than has the Over. It's been over a year since these teams have played, but note that the totals for last year's two meetings were both sub-210.

Fast starts to games have become commonplace for the Rockets, including a 36-point first quarter effort vs. Dallas on Saturday. But note that for the rest of the game, the team scored "only" 73 points. They went 19 of 37 from three-point range, a number of makes and percentage that I do not believe they'll be able to equal here. I also can't see the Nets being as porous as they were Saturday when they let the Spurs shoot 53.2% from the floor. Over the L5 games, Brooklyn is shooting just 42.7% from the field itself, so again, it's them failing to do "their part" that should cost Over bettors here. The number is just too high. 10* Under Nets/Rockets

10* Maryland (7:00 ET): To me at least, this is a shockingly low number for a team that still has only 1 loss to be laying against such an inferior foe. I actually played against Maryland in their lone loss of the season, which came back on November 29th, to Pitt, 73-59 (were 4.5-pt favorites). In my analysis for that game, I did mention how the Terps' unbeaten run was somewhat living on "borrowed time" considering they'd posted several close wins to start the year, two of them by exactly one point. Immediately after the Pitt loss, they posted another (71-70 over Oklahoma State), which ironically I was on. Since then, they've won by double digits over both Howard and St. Peter's. I see that being the case here again tonight vs. overmatched Jacksonville State. Lay the points.

Whomever handles Jacksonville State's schedule must be part sadist. Either that, or the school is simply trying to rack up frequent flyer miles. This will be the Gamecocks' 11th game of the season and 10th away from home! Furthermore, they'll be playing nothing but "true" road games from now until the end of the calendar year. The current trek began w/ a three-point win over Alabama State on 11.29 (same day Maryland suffered its only loss). Since then, they've lost at Samford and LA Monroe, both times by five points or less. While those were close games, the step up in class here is rather immense. Shockingly, this spread is almost identical to the one JSU faced when taking on Tulsa, a team I rate seven points worse than Maryland! Yes, the Gamecocks won that first game outright, but again, this will - easily - be their toughest opponent to date.

Fatigue could certainly be a factor for the Gamecocks here as well. The loss at LA Monroe took place Saturday and that game went into overtime. Maryland also played Saturday, but that was at home and they were not tested (never trailed!). Yes, center Damonte Dodd is out here w/ a knee injury, but that should not affect this game. Leading scorer Melo Trimble has found support in the form of a pair of freshman - Justin Jackson and Kevin Huerter. Keep in mind that the Terps led by as many as 25 in the second half Saturday before clearly taking their foot off the proverbial gas pedal.  10* Maryland

8* Pepperdine (10:00 ET): Entering play on Sunday, there are seven teams in the country still undefeated. KenPom, a far more reliable ranking system than the pollsters, has five of them in the top 20 (only Villanova cracks the Top 10!). The other two are South Carolina and USC, who are tied for the fewest number of wins among the unbeatens (8) and no one is really taking seriously. While USC is unlikely to fall at home Sunday night, their unbeaten record sure does have them overvalued as they host Pepperdine. This is a bit of a tricky spot for the Trojans as they've been off for the last week (last game was on 12.3) and won't play again until 12.17. Seems like a good time to step in and fade them. Take the points.

Pepperdine isn't likely to scare anyone being that they're currently riding a four-game losing streak, but the Waves can be competitive. They've proven that by cashing all four times they've been a road underdog of 12.5 or more points the previous two seasons. They are about to enter a very tough stretch of games as Wednesday's loss at Long Beach State marked the beginning of a six-game road trip that will take them to the end of the year. Aside from a somewhat embarrassing loss to Portland State (at home) earlier this month, it's not like the Waves have been drastically underperforming expectations. This marks the sixth game in a row that they will be an underdog. They do hold a neutral site win over Ark-Little Rock back on 11.22.

The last time we saw USC, they beat BYU 91-84 at Staples Center. The game marked their first w/o starting forward Bennie Boatright, who will miss the next six weeks due to a knee injury. Boatright is a key loss as he averages 10.8 points and 4.0 rebounds per game. It should be pointed out that the Trojans lost the rebounding battle vs. BYU. Though BYU missed 18 of its 23 three-point attempts, they were still able to score 84 points, including 52 in the second half. So Pepperdine should have no issues scoring here and given the large pointspread, that's a winning combination as far as the betting window is concerned. The Waves are dealing w/ injuries as well, but have a 22 PPG scorer in Lamond Murray Jr. The team is shooting better than 40% from three-point range as well. 8* Pepperdine

10* New Orleans (8:35 ET): The Pelicans were somewhat humiliated last night, losing to the Clippers 133-105. It was a close game, at least for a half (NO trailed only 61-55 heading into the break), but Chris Paul's virtuoso performance of 20 pts, 20 assists and zero turnovers proved to be too much. It should also be pointed out that Anthony Davis, who is averaging a league-high 38.1 minutes per game, was rested.  It was the team's fifth consecutive loss (also 0-5 ATS) and seventh in the last eight games. This stretch is reminiscent to the start of the season when they began 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS. In between, however, they were 6-2 SU, 6-1-1 ATS. With Davis expected back in the lineup Sunday, I like the team to at least cover, if not snap the losing streak outright. 

Not sure Phoenix should be favored here. Yes, they did just win out in LA (over the Lakers) Friday night in a nationally televised affair. But I suspect that rather high profile 119-115 victory is the cause for this line, something I would dub an "overreaction." It should be pointed out that not only are the Suns 0-4 ATS this season when favored, they have lost all four games outright! They are still w/o TJ Warren (concussion). Coming off a SU win as a dog this year, the team is 1-5 SU and ATS. Three different bench players scored in double figures against the Lakers, something that simply cannot be counted on a game by game basis. According to my own power rankings, the Suns remain one of the worst teams in the league as they are 22nd in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency. They give up 113 PPG, most in the Western Conference. 

Though beaten badly last night, it stands to reason that the Pelicans should bounce back w/ Davis returning to the lineup. Again, despite being severely short-handed, they hung tough w/ the talented Clippers for a half. The 133 pts allowed last night were a season-high and can directly be tied to Davis' absence as the team actually ranks a respectable 13th in defensive efficiency overall. Also possibly rejoining the lineup tonight are Jrue Holliday and E'Twaun Moore. Having actually dropped three in a row to the Suns, one of those earlier this year, this is a bit of a revenge game for the Pelicans as well. 10* New Orleans

10* California (10:30 ET): Since winning and covering their season opener, Cal has has its issues at the betting window. But help comes tonight in the form of UC Davis, a team outside the top 250 in the country. While Cal has struggled to cover games (2-7 ATS), they are 7-2 straight up, including a perfect 6-0 here in Berkeley. Off a loss to Seton Hall Wednesday (in Hawaii), I anticipate they'll be looking to blow the doors off UC Davis here and the Aggies should be pretty compliant given a 1-33 SU mark as a road underdog of more than 12.5 points. 

Cal did lead Seton Hall at the half Wednesday (34-31), but overall it was a poor shooting night, especially from three-point range where they were just 3 of 16. Cuonzo Martin's team entered the break having shot 52.4% overall from the field, so it was clearly the second half that cost them. Back at home, I imagine we'll see better shooting tonight. One thing that we can count on w/ the Bears is their defense, which is permitting just 60.0 PPG. Only one opponent, San Diego State, has topped 65 points against them this season. That's pretty impressive and thus you would expect that they would have covered more games. They did beat Princeton in the Pearl Harbor Invitational, holding them to only 51 points. This remains a top 50 team nationally.

UC Davis has been off for a week, but this will be their second consecutive road game. They lost at Idaho, 68-66 as 6.5-point dogs, last Saturday as that game was decided at the buzzer. They did win their only other road game to date, outright, as they upset Santa Clara 63-58 as 5.5-pt dogs back on November 12th. But this shapes up as the Aggies' most difficult game to date. Cal is very good at forcing teams to take tough two-point shots and UC Davis is shooting only 46.4% on two-point attempts this year, which ranks 250th nationally. The Aggies are below par on both ends of the floor compared to the national average an also have a propensity to turn the ball over way too much. Led by preseason All-American Ivan Rabb, Cal simply has too much height for this overmatched opponent and don't forget 7' junior center Kingsley Okorah. The Bears have been dealing w/ numerous injuries so far, which explains them falling short of the oddsmakers expectations, but head into this contests as healthy as they've been all season. For UC Davis, who has played 10 games total, this is their ninth on the road. 10* California

8* Over Warriors/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): This total is too low for a Warriors game. The best team in the league sees an average of 225 total points scored in their game (league-high) due to an other-worldly offense that is easily the league's best. They average 119.3 points per game and 1.15 points per possession. Ironically, tonight brings a date w/ a team whose games - on average - are among the lowest scoring in the entire league (only Detroit & Orlando lower). I feel this total is so low, not because of the Grizzlies' season-long averages, but due to the last game w/ Portland, which was an 88-86 final. Like Golden State, the Blazers are typically involved in high-scoring affairs, but the difference is Memphis won't be holding the Warriors to 88 points. Take the Over.

I admit that Memphis' home games do tend to be really low scoring. They average just 189.2 points per game, which again ranks among the lowest averages in the entire league. The game w/ Portland Thursday was even lower scoring than that average, but note that both sides were just dreadful shooting the ball. The Grizzlies finished at just 35.6% while the Blazers were a heinous 30.5%! In fact, each of Memphis' last three opponents have shot below 40%. Good luck holding the Warriors anywhere close to that percentage. The two-time defending Western Conference Champs are above 50% for the year. Since starting the year 0-3 ATS, GSW has been held under 115 points only four times.

One of those four times was Thursday as they faced a stout Jazz team. But that was a game they scored 65 first half points and somewhat coasted from there. The 41 point second half was among their lowest scoring halves in any game this season. While the Under is 5-3 in the Dubs' last eight games, four of those Under came in games where the total was 217.5 points or higher. As it stands now, this would be the third lowest total for any Golden State game this season. It'll be the highest for Memphis, but considering these teams went Over a total of 213 in the final meeting last season, it's not high enough. 8* Over Warriors/Grizzlies

10* Miami (8:05 ET): The Heat were blown out last night in Cleveland, but I see them bouncing back tonight in Chicago and earning themselves at least a cover. The Bulls are in prime letdown mode here as they're fresh off an upset of San Antonio on TNT Thursday night. They were three-point underdogs there, but have now shifted to large favorites at the betting window, a role that I do not believe suits them well. As a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points, they are just 6-12 ATS the L3 seasons. When these teams met in Miami exactly one month ago, the line was a pick 'em. Though Chicago won that game by three, I do not believe the large shift in the spread is justified for this rematch. Take the points.

Miami has actually won and covered each of its last three visits to the Windy City. Obviously, this is a rebuilding year on South Beach, something that was readily apparent by looking at the lineup Coach "Spo" trotted out last night in Cleveland. But not every opponent is going to be as strong as the Cavaliers, who had way too much firepower. It also didn't help that the Heat shot a season-worst 34.8 percent from the floor. Their best player, Hassan Whiteside, was held to just eight points on 4 of 10 shooting and wound up getting benched. At the same time, the Cavs gashed them for 55.4 percent shooting. I expect the shooting percentages to be far closer tonight. Since the start of November, Chicago has shot better than 50% from the floor in only one game. That was against the defensively inept Lakers.

Chicago has beaten both Cleveland and San Antonio in the last eight days, but lost three straight times in between, including a blowout at the hands of the team w/ the worst record in the league (Dallas). They've been a very inconsistent team. Given that both of these squads rank in the bottom third in pace of play, we shouldn't expect a ton of possessions tonight and thus the likelihood of a blowout decreases. Over the L30 days, the Bulls have posted just two double digit victories and one was against Philadelphia. There's also the matter of their 9-20 ATS record (L3 seasons) when coming off a SU win as a dog. 10* Miami

8* Michigan (8:00 ET): UCLA is one of eight remaining unbeaten teams in the country. Ironically, I don't think any of them, save for #1 Villanova, belong in the top 10! UCLA is currently ranked #2 by the pollsters, but I don't know of anyone besides them who thinks this is the second best team in the country. This will be the Bruins' first game since their upset of then-#1 Kentucky last Saturday and while a week can be a long time, I still view this as a letdown spot in Pauley Pavilion. Michigan has lost twice, but both times were as favorites and one of them was by just three points. The other was their first "true" road game (at South Carolina), but I believe John Beilein will have his Wolverines "ready to go" Saturday night in primetime.

Michigan is coming off a 53-50 win over Texas in Ann Arbor on Tuesday. They were 10-pt faves there, which shows how much the market was respecting them. Curiously, this Wolverines team is nowhere near as sharp-shooting as past Beilein editions. I can assure you this is not a misprint, but the Maize and Blue were an all-time horrific 19.2% from the floor against South Carolina, which explains that loss. They shot only 41.2% against Texas, which was their next lowest shooting percentage to date. The team is shooting just 34.9% from three-point range, which would be the lowest percentage for any Wolverines team since 2009-10. I expect these shooting numbers to drastically improve moving forward as almost 45% of their total attempts from the field are from behind the arc. Sooner rather than later, those shots will start to go down. 

Meanwhile, UCLA is due to regress as they're currently hitting an unsustainable 45.4% from three-point range. The win over Kentucky was not w/o some ugliness as Lonzo Ball was just 2 of 8 from behind the arc and committed five turnovers in the first half. With six straight covers, the last one being an outright win as 10.5-point pups, it's only natural for the oddsmakers to have the Bruins overvalued coming into this tilt. Michigan is dangerous as a dog, a role they have yet to find themselves this season, until now. 8* Michigan

10* Georgetown (2:00 ET): This game is being contested in Miami, FL as part of the Hoophall Invitational. For LaSalle, it's their second straight Big East opponent. In non-tourney action, they took on city (Philly) rival Villanova Tuesday and actually played the #1 team in the nation pretty tough, losing only 89-79 as 17.5-pt dogs. Coming off a high-profile game such as that, Georgetown may not have the Explorers' full attention and that could prove problematic. With a shaky ATS mark already, the Hoyas barely escaped Elon (won by 3) their last game. But that was on Sunday and I figure JTIII will have his team very focused for this neutral site affair. Lay the short number here.

Thus far, G'town has covered only one game, a 65-61 upset of Oregon (were +9) on 11.21. They've been big money-burners when favored, going 0-4 ATS including early season losses at home to both Maryland and Arkansas State. At one point, they stood at only 2-4 SU, but the team has since rattled off three consecutive victories. The disappointing records - SU and ATS - have led to a bit of a reevaluation in the marketplace and right now I believe it to be a great time to "buy low" on them. One thing that the Hoyas do well is defend the three-point line as opponents are shooting only 30.6% from distance against them this year. That's key facing a LaSalle squad that's currently making an unsustainable 41.6% from behind the arc.

LaSalle played Villanova very tough on Tuesday and you have to wonder what they'll have left in the tank here. A flurry of late three-pointers had them down only four, which was also the halftime deficit, late in the game. But the Explorers eventually wilted and lost by 10. While this team can certainly score, I'd be concerned about a defense which is permitting 80.4 PPG on 48.7% shooting. Opponents are making almost 40% of their three-point tries against LaSalle. Georgetown unexpectedly struggled in its last game on the glass, but w/ Isaac Copeland now back in the fold, I see them dominating that department here against the Explorers. The five days off should do the Hoyas some good and I'll point out that they've gone 31-2 straight up under Thompson vs. opponents giving up 77+ points per game. 10* Georgetown

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): The Mavs fall from grace has been rather precipitous, but I'm not sure they should be catching this many points at home against a subpar foe like Indiana. Yes, Dallas has the worst record in the league (4-17 SU) and are 29th in offensive efficiency. But they've at least been competitive here at home, losing by an average of just 5.4 PPG thus far. As you might have guessed though, this is more a play AGAINST the Pacers, who are just 3-7 SU and ATS on the road and not really worthy of being favored. Sure, Indiana is coming off a blowout win at Phoenix Wednesday night, but this will be their fifth straight road game and fourth in six nights. Dallas, theoretically, should be highly motivated after being humiliated here at home by Sacramento on Wednesday. Take the points.

Making this line all the more curious is the fact that Indiana was favored by only 5.5 earlier in the year over the Mavs and that was at home. Granted, they won and Dallas has fallen harder and faster than even the biggest pessimist would have thought. But still, this looks like an overadjustment by the oddsmakers. That first meeting was actually the season opener for both teams and it went to overtime. Dallas put up an unconscionable 48 three-pointers in the contest, but Indiana was far more efficient from behind the arc, hitting 10 of 18. I do not envision the Pacers matching that kind of shooting as they were also better than 50% overall from the field. For the year, they are shooting just 45.5% from the field and 34.4% from three-point range. The Pacers, like the Mavs, are in the bottom third in the league in offensive efficiency.

The Pacers poor defense will also serve to help Dallas here. On the road, the Pacers are giving up a horrible 115.7 PPG. Some of that was them getting torched for 142 by Golden State on Monday. But they also allowed 131 to Portland last week. While this is the Pacers' fifth consecutive road game, it is the Mavs' fourth consecutive home game. So the situation definitely favors them. Again, this team was embarrassed here two night ago and I can only assume they'll be eager to atone for it. 10* Dallas

8* Longwood (7:30 ET): Sure, Longwood is not even one of the top 325 teams in America? Do you even know what conference they hail from? (Answer: Big South). Do you even know their nickname>? (Answer: Lancers). The answers to those questions are actually quite irrelevant because this is just a horrible spot for still unbeaten Creighton. The Blue Jays are just two days removed from an in-state tussle w/ Nebraska where they clearly brought their 'A-Game.' Of course, Nebraska really did not as the 'Huskers shot just 32.4% from the floor in the 77-62 final (Creighton was favored by four). Will Longwood win this game? Obviously not. But this is an absolute boatload of points to take going against what should be a very disinterested favorite.

Longwood rarely plays a lined game, but they have one under their belt in 2016. As 18-point underdogs, they ended up covering @ SF Austin, losing by only six. Obviously this is a big step up in class here, but the Lancers have generally been competitive. Their only "bad" loss came by 22 at home to Maine, which was the season opener. They are coming off a loss to a previously winless James Madison team last Saturday, but I imagine the players will be very excited to take on this challenge. This is their first time playing a ranked opponent since Georgetown in 2012. They have three double-digit scorers, led by Darrion Allen (15.7 PPG). No matter how "outgunned" you may think Longwood is here, I guarantee they shoot the ball better than Nebraska did on Wednesday. The Cornhuskers missed 19 of 22 three-point attempts, for crying out loud!

Creighton has an eight-day break after this game, so don't be shocked if they're already peeking ahead to that. There has been only one time in the L3 seasons that the Blue Jays have been asked to lay more than 30 points at the betting window and not surprisingly, they failed to cover the spot. This is just an insane spread, regardless of matchup, and I keep coming back to the fact this is their second game in three days and clearly the less interesting of the two. Total letdown game for Creighton, who will not be interested in winning by the margin that the oddsmakers are calling for. 8* Longwood

10* UT-Arlington (10:00 ET): The number of unbeatens in College Basketball was reduced to nine last night w/ both Butler & TCU losing. Of the nine remaining, #1 Villanova (defending Nat'l Champs) is clearly the strongest. After the Wildcats, we find a group of teams that likely fall between the 10th and 20th best teams in the country right now. One of them is St. Mary's. Unbeaten starts are nothing new for the Gaels; last year the team also started 6-0 SU. But then they lost their next game at Cal. For the record, it should be pointed out that SMU has played the fewest # of games of any remaining unbeaten. Tonight, they host a worthy adversary in UT-Arlington, who happens to be one of the top mid-majors in the country. Take the points.

The Mavericks of UT-Arlington are a formidable foe here as they have already won outright at Texas, as 7.5-pt underdogs, back on 11.29. The preseason choice to win the Sun Belt, UT Arlington has thrived in the underdog role through the years, going 44-22 ATS including 16-8 ATS the L3 seasons. Already they're 3-1 ATS this year w/ not only the outright win at Texas, but also at Fordham as well. They also covered a game at Arkansas. So don't look for the team to be intimidated at all by playing the #12 ranked team in the country. This is already the Mavs' seventh road game and the start of their third three-game trip. So they're battle tested. Be on the lookout for SBC Player of the Year Kevin Hervey, who is averaging 13.4 points and 6.2 rebounds per game.

While UT Arlington just played two nights ago and St. Mary's has been off since 11.30, I do not see that being a significant edge for the favorite here. It's not as if UT Arlington was tested on Tuesday; they won by 50 over a D-III school (Texas-Dallas). Also, don't be surprised if St. Mary's is perhaps a bit rusty coming off the week-plus break. This is just the second time in the last three seasons that they've had 7+ days off between games and they failed to cover in the only previous instance. While the Gaels have already beaten the likes of Dayton and Stanford, a case can be made that UT Arlington is on par w/ those teams. Yet they're getting a far more generous spread. 10* UT Arlington

10* Portland (8:05 ET): The Blazers have been a massive disappointment this season, particularly on the defensive end. They currently rank dead last in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up almost 1.1 points per possession. Last night saw their 3-0 SU/ATS win streak halted as they allowed 115 points in Milwaukee. But tonight, they take on a Grizzlies team that's not known for scoring in bunches and is playing w/o Mike Conley. While the Grizz have yet to lose since their starting PG went down, they've been fortunate to draw some pretty weak opponents. Orlando, the Lakers, New Orleans and Philadelphia were the last four opponents and all four wins have been by five points or less. I like Portland here.

"We're not a very good team right now" is what HC Terry Stotts had to say about the Blazers following last night's loss in Milwaukee. Things really came apart in the second half as they allowed the Bucks to score 64 points. For the game, Milwaukee shot nearly 52% from the floor and was 10 of 24 from three-point range. That performance came on the heels of some improved defensive efforts against Indiana, Miami and Chicago. Fortunately for Portland here, Memphis is short-handed and I believe simply lacks the capability to exploit the defensive shortcomings. In addition to being w/o Conley, the Grizzlies don't have Chandler Parsons, James Ennis, Vince Carter and Brandan Wright. Zach Randolph is set to return tonight, but that's still a lot of missing pieces for one team to deal with.

Portland has already beat Memphis once this year, here at the FedEx Forum, and that was when Conley was playing. What I want to specifically point to there is that it was one of the Blazers' best defensive efforts of the season. They won 100-94 by holding the Grizzlies to just 38.3% shooting overall including 6 of 26 from three-point range. If they can beat Memphis at full strength, then they should be able to beat them here. I believe that the Grizz simply lacks the firepower to keep up w/ Portland right now. They are averaging only 95.5 PPG at home this season. 10* Portland

8* Under Nuggets/Wizards (7:05 ET): I think that by any objective measure, you would have to qualify both of these teams as being major disappointments this season. Denver, in the middle of a six-game road trip, just lost at lowly Brooklyn last night. They are just 8-14 on the season while being outscored by 4.2 points per 100 possessions, which would place them at 25th in the rankings. Not far ahead would be Washington, who lost here at home to Orlando two nights ago, despite John Wall scoring 52 points. I had the Over in that game and Over it went (by 40 points!), but tonight I'm going the other way as I feel the Nuggets could be tired and the Wizards should see decreases in scoring - on both ends - from their last game. This number just seems too high. Take the Under.

The last four times these teams have met, the Over has cashed. But the number here is several points higher than it was for either of LY's meetings. Washington has also gone Over in four straight, but this qualifies as one of their highest O/U lines of the year. I found only two that were higher (vs. Houston, Phoenix) and both of those stayed Under. As for Denver, last night's loss to the Nets was a 116-111 final, so clearly that had an impact on the number here as well. Interestingly enough, the Nuggets shot only 40% from the field in Brooklyn. They did make 11 three-pointers, however. There was also a combined 41 free throws made in the contest between the two teams. While an optimist would like to call for better shooting from the Nuggets tonight, the fact is they are shooting only 42.5% from the field away from home for the season.

Wall is clearly unlikely to match his offensive production from the last game. Outside of Wall, the rest of the Wizards didn't do much Tuesday as they combined for just 64 total points on 26 of 62 shooting (42%). Meanwhile, I can't imagine the defense being as horrendous here as it was vs. Orlando where they allowed the Magic to score a season-high in points (124) on better than 51% shooting. Both coaches, I expect, will place an emphasis on the defensive end of the floor for this matchup. The Under is 4-0 this season in Washington home games when the total is 210 or higher. 8* Under Nuggets/Wizards

8* Nebraska (9:00 ET): In-state bragging rights are on the line here and it's the bigger state school that finds itself in the role of home underdog for this one. While one could argue that this game "means more" to unbeaten Creighton, don't discount Nebraska's motivation in this one. Sure, the folks in Lincoln may still be more concerned with the Music City Bowl vs. Tennessee later this month. But for those inside Pinnacle Bank Arena tonight, this game looms large. Creighton is #10 in the nation and as I said earlier, still unbeaten (one of 11 remaining unbeatens in the country). The Blue Jays have had the Cornhuskers' number through the years, going 15-5 ATS, including B2B double digit wins. But I'm calling for a different end to the story tonight. Take the points. 

This will be Creighton's first "true" road game of the season. Granted, they don't have to go far, but it's still a hostile environment. I cannot possibly see the Bluejays' hot shooting continuing, at least at the current clip. They've shot 50% or better in every game so far and average 90.2 PPG. But the first true road game seems like a good spot for that average to dip and Nebraska is allowing only 62.5 PPG thus far, on 39.3 percent shooting. Here at home, the scoring average dips down to 53.5 PPG. Last year in Omaha, Creighton attempted 21 more free throws while the 'Huskers shot just 4 of 21 from downtown (three-point range) and that was the difference.

Nebraska has definitely challenged itself this year as they played UCLA, the current #2 team in the land, and Virginia Tech. Not to mention, they had to go to Clemson as a part of the Big 10-ACC Challenge and came up just two points short there. That's three top 40 opponents away from home thus far. Creighton did beat Wisconsin early in the year, but that's their only top 60 opponent to date. Shockingly, the Bluejays are only 7-18 SU in "true" road games the previous two seasons. 8* Nebraska

8* Over Cavaliers/Knicks (8:05 ET): After playing the Knicks Over last night (and winning), I'll do the same here as they face a Cleveland team that should easily exploit their defensive shortcomings. New York's already woeful defensive efficiency rating (1.07 pts per possession) certainly didn't improve after last night's showing, where they allowed 103 pts to a Miami team not exactly known for lighting up the scoreboard. The Cavs come in sporting the 4th most efficient offensive in the game and are averaging 110.3 points per game this year. They should have no problems scoring here and even better is the fact that Cavs' defensive numbers have been far from impressive this year. That makes this an easy Over call.

The Cavs won't have JR Smith tonight or for the foreseeable future, but I don't see the team having much difficulty scoring here w/ LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love leading the way. High totals have not bothered the World Champs as the Over is 6-2 this season for them when the O/U is 210+. With three consecutive losses, there was a little bit of panic going on in Cleveland, but the team turned in a strong effort Monday night in Toronto, scoring 116 pts in a key road win. James scored a season-high w/ 34 pts, Love had his 13th double double (28-14) and for a 10th straight game, Irving scored at least 20. Again, the Cavs should have no problems at all scoring on a Knicks team that is 27th in defensive efficiency. 

I'd be inclined to call for a Cleveland rout here, but their lack of defense has been troubling. Over the L5 games, they've allowed an average of 112.4 PPG. The Knicks may give up plenty of points, but they can score as well as is evident by the fact they've topped 100 pts in 11 consecutive games now. Only once during those 11 games have they NOT allowed more than 100 as well. I cashed the Over (barely) when these teams met on Opening Night, the result of which was a 117-88 Cleveland win and cover. I'll call for the Knicks to score a lot more tonight. Prior to Opening Night, the Under had cashed seven straight times between these two, so it's "high time" we see a reversal of that trend. 8* Over Cavaliers/Knicks

10* SMU (8:00 ET): There are still 11 unbeaten teams remaining in College Basketball and four of them are in action tonight. Perhaps the weakest of those 11 is TCU, who is actually an underdog this evening at in-state rival SMU. Despite a 16-5 ATS record vs. the Ponies, the underdog distinction is absolutely justified here for the Horned Frogs. This is a team that hardly cracks the top 50 in most rating systems, including my own. They'll be playing a "true" road game for only the second time all year (won close over UNLV back on 11.25). SMU has won 37 of its past 40 home games overall and has taken on the far more challenging schedule to date compared to their Texas brethren. Lay the points in this one as TCU will be handed its first loss of the season.

SMU has started December w/ a pair of cupcake games, beating CS-Bakersfield and Delaware State here in Dallas. Against the former, they did not shoot the ball well at all, in fact they finished the game at just 31.8% from the field. But they allowed only 43 points on 29.8% shooting, then had far less difficulty w/ Delaware State on Sunday. This will obviously be a stiffer test tonight, but getting the game here at Moody Coliseum is huge. They've won 19 straight here over non-conference competition. Four different Mustangs are averaging double figures in scoring and this team also boasts the 6th best rebounding margin in the country. They did beat TCU LY in Ft. Worth, 75-70, albeit failing to cover as 6.5-pt chalk. But a shorter number at home seems like a real bargain to me.

I'm just not a buyer on this TCU team as they've yet to play anyone of real substance. Sure, they did beat Washington twice, but the Huskies hardly crack the top 90 teams nationally. Their toughest opponent to date may very well have been Illinois State. Meanwhile, SMU has taken on the likes of Pitt, Michigan, USC and Boise State, all away from home. Even w/ the win at UNLV, the Horned Frogs are still a lousy 3-18 SU last 21 "true" road games. We've seen similar starts from this program before, only for things to unravel once the conference portion of the schedule hits. Once again, TCU's weak non-conference slate isn't fooling me. 10* SMU

10* Over Knicks/Heat (7:35 ET): The Knicks are clear overachievers in my book as they are two games above .500 despite being outscored by 2.7 pts per 100 possessions. Their record is owed to a 6-1 mark vs. teams below .500 and a 3-0 mark in games decided by three points or less. So regression should be in the cards, sooner or later. However, I'm not sure about tonight as they are facing a Heat team that's below .500 and really struggling. What I am sure about, however, is the fact the Knicks stink defensively. They are 27th in efficiency, giving up 1.07 points per possession. Meanwhile, Miami is also slipping on that end of the court as they've allowed 110 or more points three times in the last five games. Take the Over here. 

Totals for recent Heat games have been all over the map, largely dependent on the opponent that they have played. Last time out, they ended up playing a low-scoring game w/ Portland, a game that had a very high total. While it's a bit concerning they were only able to score 92 points against the worst defensive team in the league, the opposite could be said for the team's previous game where they scored 111 against a very good Utah defense. That game sailed Over a low total. This one is in the middle and I think it's safe to say the Knicks should shoot better than Portland did on Saturday. The Blazers, despite winning, shot only 40.4% from the floor. Meanwhile, the Heat will shoot better than the Knicks previous opponent (Sacramento) did. The Kings finished a horrific 32.3% from the field.

Though the Knicks limited Sacramento to only 32.3% shooting, note that DeMarcus Cousins still had a big game w/ 36 points and 12 rebounds. That followed Minnesota's Karl-Anthony Towns going for 47 points and 18 rebounds against them. Miami has a strong post player in Hassan Whiteside, who averages 17.8 points, 14.9 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game, so look for a big night from him. The Under was 4-0 in the four meetings last year between these old rivals, but those were two very different teams. Miami isn't nearly as strong defensively. The Knicks have scored 100+ points in ten consecutive games and w/ their own defensive ineptitude, this one should sail Over the number. 10* Over Knicks/Heat

8* Over Magic/Wizards (7:05 ET): I surely believed that I was holding a winning Over ticket on the Magic's last game (Sunday) when the score was 78-73 (in their favor) after three quarters. The total was only 195.5 points there, but unfortunately they and the Pistons combined for only 39 fourth quarter points. Of course, Orlando won't complain as they managed to upset what had been a red hot Detroit team as seven-point underdogs. Tonight, it's a trip to the Nation's Capital to take on the reeling Wizards, who just played last night and won 118-113 in Brooklyn. Ironically, the Wiz have posted B2B wins only one time all year and that came at the Magic's expense! I don't want to lay the number here, but at the same time I don't want to back Orlando off a SU dog win. Therefore, we turn to the total and my read here is the same as it was for the Magic's last game. Take the Over. 

Admittedly, the Under is now 9-2 in Magic road games and this team is rated 29th in offensive efficiency, just ahead of Philadelphia. But the O/U lines are starting to get lower and we can now take advantage. This is already the third meeting of the year between these Southeast Division rivals and while the first two (both played in Orlando) stayed Under, you should expect better all-around shooting tonight. In the first meeting, neither side shot 40% from the field. That's rare. The rematch, played on November 25th, saw them combine to go a woeful 13 of 52 from three-point range. Sunday saw the Magic shoot 53.2% from the field in Detroit.

The opponent here is more conducive for an Orlando Over than it was Sunday. Washington gives up plenty of points, as we saw last night. For the year, they are allowing 106.2 PPG, which is bottom 10 in the league. They just allowed 113 last night to a Brooklyn team which ranks pretty low in offensive efficiency. It was their third straight Over, all of those game seeing both them and the opponent top 100 points. The Over is 3-1 this season when Washington is playing in the second game of a back to back and 26-17 L3 seasons in the situation. The Wiz are shooting 37.7% from three-point range at home, but the fact they allow an even higher percentage should ensure this game is higher scoring than expected. 8* Over Magic/Wizards

10* Ball State (7:00 ET): Revenge alert! Ball State lost at Bradley last year, 54-53 as two-point favorites. As you can ascertain from that final score, it was a pretty miserable night shooting the ball for both teams. This year, the Cardinals get to play host and have the additional motivation of being of a loss, here at home no less. They fell Saturday to IUPUI, as six-point favorites, 73-62. As was the case w/ the play on Rider last night, I don't see our side dropping B2B home games. Bradley is also off a home loss here, theirs more severe, as they fell 91-69 to Nevada. The Braves have pulled off a few upsets this year, but not here. Lay the points. 

Ball State is actually just 1-2 SU here in Muncie, losing outright as the betting favorite twice. The first came to Indiana State back on November 15th. Then there was Saturday's setback. The lone home win for the Cardinals so far was against a non-D1 foe (Indiana-Kokomo). That being said, poor shooting was to blame for both home losses. I see the Cards shooting the ball better here against a Bradley team that just gave up 91 points on 55.6% shooting. Saturday's loss was a tough one for BSU as they led IUPUI 36-29 at halftime and led by 11 w/ 14:37 to go. They shot just 33.3% in the second half and scored only four points in the final four minutes. They were 3 of 10 from the FT line w/ only two of those attempts coming after halftime. Bottom line is the Cardinals know they let one slip away Saturday and should come out highly motivated.

Poor shooting was again the culprit in LY's loss at Bradley. Ironically, Bradley shot worse though. The Braves were held to 31.9% from the floor, including 5 of 20 from three-point range. But making nine more free throws than BSU did was the difference in a one-point game. Bradley's game Saturday vs. Nevada was a part of the Mountain West vs. Missouri Valley Challenge and saw the Braves fall behind by 20 at halftime. They never led in what was a very one-sided affair. Bradley has won just 3 of its last 25 "true" road games, one of those wins being an upset LW at Eastern Illinois. I wouldn't look for them to make it two in a row. 10* Ball State

10* Under Celtics/Rockets (8:05 ET): Both of these teams are pretty bad defensively, but I believe the number is too high here. Houston has gone Over in six straight games, but the Under is 14-3 their L17 times hosting Boston and 3-0 the past four meetings overall (one push). Furthermore, the Celtics have been an Under team for much of this season, at one point going that way in nine consecutive games. The Over is 4-1 their L5 games, but those lines were much lower than this one. Take the Under. 

Houston is returning home from a very successful road trip that saw them go 4-1 SU/ATS including a win over Golden State. Throughout the trip, they faced some of the highest scoring teams in the league, such as Sacramento, Portland, Golden State and Denver. Those teams are also known for giving up their fair share as well. Sacramento, Denver and Portland all rank in the bottom eight in the league in defensive efficiency. Boston is only 18th, but they've shown much improvement after a bad start to the year. They did just give up 106 pts to the Sixers, but that was owed to uncharacteristically good Philly three-point shooting (15 of 33). The Under is 6-2 this year for the Celtics if they gave up 105+ pts the previous game and its 7-2 when the total is 210 pts or higher.

Houston will of course jack plenty of three-pointers here as they've made at least 10 in 19 consecutive games, a NBA record. But something that is interesting here is that both teams rank outside the top 10 in pace of play, meaning the number of possessions could affect this game somewhat significantly. Don't be surprised if the Rockets come out a tad bit lethargic after a somewhat grueling road trip. They had, at one point, gone Under in six straight games last month. Many of the totals during that streak were similar to this one. 10* Under Celtics/Rockets

10* Rider (7:00 ET): Rider didn't play its first home game until Thursday and they promptly lost it 76-67 as 3.5-point favorites to Fairfield. Tonight, they host a Siena team that beat Fairfield, 80-73 as 7.5-pt home favorites, just two days later. Thus, most will naturally favor the Saints in this MAAC battle, but not I as Rider has some revenge to exact here, plus Siena may be a little road-weary from playing its sixth "true" road game since November 15th. They're 0-5 SU so far, so I see no reason why they should be the favorite here, especially considering they've given up an average of 83.4 PPG in those five losses. Take the points.

Rider had no answer for Fairfield's Tyler Nelson, who went for 38 points last Thursday. Needless to say, it was a career night for Nelson as he made six three-pointers, all 10 free throws and was 11 of 20 from the field. While the Broncs did trail the entire second half, they had managed to close the gap to five before free throws put the game away. Meanwhile, Siena was able to beat the Stags in their MAAC opener as one of their players (Nico Clareth) had a career night w/ 33 points. Nelson scored only 23 for Fairfield this time. Note that the Saints actually gave away a 16-pt lead in the second half, allowing the Stags to score 16 straight points. Something to note here is Siena was only 9 of 19 from the free throw line and those kind of numbers can cost a team moving forward.

Siena won both matchups LY and has beaten Rider three straight times overall. The Broncs were embarrassed last year here in Lawrenceville, losing by 20, and given that they just dropped the home opener, I expect a real emphasis placed on the result here. I was impressed that Rider was able to win three of five on the road to start the year and they should be the fresher team here, not just because they've had two additional days to prepare, but also due to the fact they've played two fewer games overall. The Broncs are also a strong 14-3 ATS as home underdogs of 3.5 to 6 points.  10* Rider

8* Over Magic/Pistons (6:05 ET): Detroit has gotten on quite the roll and turned in perhaps their finest effort to date on Friday, beating Atlanta by 36. That makes it five wins and covers in the L6 games overall and the last three have all come on the road as underdogs. Thus it certainly seems to be a favorable setup Sunday evening as they return home (where they are 7-2 SU/ATS for the year) to face an opponent they have pretty well dominated the last few seasons (7-1 SU/ATS vs. Orlando since 2014-15). But that being said, I'm shying away from the side here (even though my numbers indicate the Pistons may be undervalued) and instead turn my attention to the total. Take the Over here, as I believe the O/U line to be too low.

The Magic have primarily been an Under team this year. That's the way the total has gone in each of their last three games, not to mention 8 of the last 10. A big reason for this is they average only 93.0 PPG and rank 30th (i.e. last) in offensive efficiency. While I do worry about the fact that Detroit is allowing only 89.0 PPG at home this year, I still believe this total is just too low. It is among the lowest for either side this year. It was a 108-82 Pistons' victory in the second game of the season, so the total here opened a few points lower. Note that in the first meeting, the Magic shot just 34.7% from the floor. I expect improvement there, plus I also expect the teams to combine for more than 18 total free throws, which is how few we saw back on October 28th. 

The Magic did just top 100 pts for only the fifth time this season on Friday, but for a second time it was against Philadelphia. Still, they'll be facing a Pistons team that has gone Over in three straight and five of its last six overall. It's been back to back 121-point efforts against the Celtics and Hawks and they come in averaging a healthy 102.0 PPG here at home. While the Under has been profitable for both them at home and the Magic on the road, I feel this is a "tipping point" of sorts w/ the number simply being too low. Finally, there is a chance that PG Reggie Jackson might make his season debut here for Detroit. 8* Over Magic/Pistons

10* Coll of Charleston (4:00 ET): Davidson rolls into Charleston pretty hot as the Wildcats have won (and covered) four straight following a 78-57 beatdown of Mercer on Tuesday, their first "true" road tilt of the season. The lone loss on the resume of Bob McKillop's team was to Clemson, back in the second game of the season where they allowed 95 points. Meanwhile, Charleston has responded well after losing three straight, posting B2B wins over USC Upstate and Navy. Two of those three losses did take place at home (other at Villanova), but the Cougars are getting a few too many points, in my opinion, to pass up on here. It looks as if the line is climbing as well, so you may even want to wait a little bit before playing! Take the points.

This is a double revenge spot for the home team as they've lost each of the last two seasons to Davidson, including by one on the road in 2015. They were 15-point road dogs LY. This was an old conference rivalry before Davidson ditched the SoCon for greener pastures. Last year's game featured a total of 19 lead changes and 11 ties and was a brutal defeat for the Cougars, who led 81-76 late (under 4 minutes to play), but allowed the Wildcats to score the game's final six points. So, what I'm saying is that motivation will not be lacking from the home side here.

While I am a bit worried about Charleston and its shooting percentage going up against a Davidson team that's allowed it's six opponents to shoot only 37% from the field, the Cougars will not be intimidated here considering they've already faced the likes of Wake Forest and, both of whom are bigger and more athletic than Davidson. I think that Charleston is deserving of more respect than Mercer was and given the virtually identical lines, that doesn't seem to be the case. Granted, an adjustment had to be made after Davidson blew Mercer out, but I think the oddsmakers and now public are overreacting. 10* Coll of Charleston

10* Over Suns/Warriors (10:35 ET): Oddsmakers can't make this total high enough in my opinion as we have the most efficient offense in the game (Golden State) going up against a team giving up 111.9 PPG already. Furthermore, Phoenix is playing at the fastest pace in the league. These Pacific Division rivals already met once this year (on 11.13) and it was the Warriors coming out ahead 133-120. Even if this ends up as the highest total of the NBA season to date, I don't believe it will be high enough. Take the Over.

The Warriors saw their 12-game win streak come to an end Thursday w/ a 132-127 double overtime loss to Houston. It was 113-113 at the end of regulation, so it was admittedly a bad beat for Under bettors there (O/U Line was 232.5). But there should be no issues scoring here against a Suns team that gives up a ton of points (23rd in efficiency) due to the fast pace they play at. Speaking of pace, the Warriors are third in that department, so there should be plenty of possessions here. Golden State scores 120 PPG at home, by the way.

The Warriors also give up 109.6 PPG here at home, so Phoenix should score their fair share as well. The Suns come in averaging 107.9 PPG on the road. Over these last 13 games, Golden State has scored 115 points all but three times. They'll probably need closer to 125 here, but that should be no problem against this opponent. They made 16 threes and shot 51% overall in the first meeting with the Suns this year. Phoenix also shot 51% from the floor in that game. Again, after 253 total pts were scored in that game, the oddsmakers needed to adjust more. 10* Over Suns/Warriors

10* Maryland (9:00 ET): The Terps were embarrassed earlier this week, losing 73-59 to Pitt here in College Park. I went against them in what was their first loss of the season. They have yet to cover a spread here at home (0-3 ATS), but tonight they're not getting any respect against fellow 1-loss team Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are playing their first "true" road game of the year and considering they lost to Maryland by nine last year in Stillwater (as 9-pt favorites), I do not see them getting the job done here.

It was an awful first half vs. Pitt on Tuesday. I was quite happy to look at the scores and see Maryland down 45-24 at the break as the likelihood they'd come back from that kind of deficit, let alone cover as a favorite, was quite minimal. But I did like how the Terps fought back to cut that deficit to eight. They held Pitt to 26 percent shooting in the second half after allowing them to convert at a 61% clip in the first half. I think that considering this was an unbeaten team entering the week, this is a pretty extraordinary price on Maryland here at home. I realize that I was quite dismissive of the Terps' unbeaten start in my analysis of the Pitt game, but this is a great value. I have the Pokes and Pitt rated fairly evenly, so the market has overadjusted here. 

OSU has given up at least 85 points in four of their seven games. That includes games vs. Central Arkansas and Rogers State. Many will point to the fact the Cowboys destroyed a Georgetown team (by 27) that Maryland only beat by a single point. But, I'm not sure that matters. Besides, it was a "true" road win for the Terps over the Hoyas. OSU isn't going to be able to simply outscore Maryland, like they did to some of the lesser teams on the schedule, and they are just 8-21 ATS as road underdogs of three points or less or a pick em. Consider that each of the Cowboys last three opponents have shot 51% or better and even Rogers State was at 56.9%, unfathomable given the talent discrepancy. Maryland will bounce back big-time offensively here. 10* Maryland

8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Over the L2 seasons, the Hawks and Raptors have each played the role of "bridesmaid" to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference. Last year was the Raptors' turn as they fell in six games to the eventual World Champs. That's better than Atlanta did in the 2015 Eastern Conf Finals (they were swept). This year has seen both teams emerge as potential contenders for the #2 spot, which Toronto currently holds thanks to a five-game win streak. Right now, it appears as if these teams are trending in very opposite directions as Atlanta has lost five in a row and eight of nine. The Raptors have not only won five straight, but covered six in a row. But these very different streaks have created a situation where there's now a ton of value on the Hawks. Take the points.

Atlanta was destroyed last night, at home, by Detroit. The final score was 121-85 and that was a game the Hawks were 1.5-pt favorites. So, what happened? Well, the Pistons were red-hot from the floor, making 17 three-pointers, and the Hawks were not. Part of that was being w/o leading scorer Paul Milsap again, but the rest of the team was just 36.4% from the floor, including 25% from three-point range. Dwight Howard attempted only four shots and had just two points. He was called for five fouls, which didn't help. After missing 10 straight shots in the second quarter, the Hawks fell behind by 19 points. Needless to say, tonight can't possibly go as poorly.

The Raptors are 6-2 SU/ATS the L2 years vs. the Hawks, going 3-1 each season. While Atlanta was blown out last night, Toronto destroyed the Lakers by 33. It was their third straight double digit win, but those came against the Sixers, Grizzlies and Lakers. The Raptors can't possibly continue this hot shooting as they've been 54% or higher from the floor in each of the L3 games. The Lakers shot just 34% last night. The back to back scenario has yet to bother the Hawks this season as they've gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in it, winning outright four times. They are also 6-1 ATS this year vs. teams w/ a winning record. They are still #2 in the league in defensive efficiency and I refuse to believe they are as bad as they've looked of late. 8* Atlanta

8* Georgia Tech (1:00 ET): The Yellow Jackets are off just their second loss of the year. The final score at Penn State Tuesday was remarkably similar to their first loss, which took place back on 11.18 at home vs. Ohio U. They fell 67-60 in Happy Valley, as six point underdogs. (They were 3.5-pt home dogs in the 67-61 loss to Ohio). I'm hoping that the "third time will be the charm" for GT getting points as that's the scenario Saturday afternoon in Knoxville against Tennessee. The Vols have not played since Maui, a tournament which ended before Thanksgiving. They've played just five games overall and their lone win on the Island was against the host, D-II Chaminade. Their only other win this year was a wild 103-94 affair vs. Appalachian State. I believe the better team is getting points here.

Georgia Tech shot just 36.4% against Penn State, yet was able to stay in the game virtually throughout. It was a two-point game w/ just two minutes to go. Three-point shooting (7 of 16) was able to keep them in the game. Getting to the free throw line only seven times didn't help. Not coincidentally, the Yellow Jackets' worst two shooting games of the year are also their two losses. With Tennessee giving up an average of 80 PPG thus far, I feel the Jackets should be able to put plenty of points on the board today.

The three-point line could be huge here. I already mentioned that Georgia Tech was pretty sharp from distance last time out. Well, they also defended the arc well (Penn State missed 11 of 15 attempts). Meanwhile, Tennessee is not shooting the ball well from long range. They are at just 29% for the year, including 25.7% for the year. Therefore, it's odd that they've been able to still score so many as this is a relatively small team. Overall, the Vols are just 8-23 ATS as a favorite the L3 seasons and 10-22 ATS in home games. They lost to Georgia Tech LY in Atlanta, by two, as seven-point underdogs. The line has shifted significantly in one year's time, too much I believe. Take the points. 8* Georgia Tech

8* San Antonio (8:35 ET): Greg Popovich may be ornery, but if he were to state that his team is no better than third right now in the Western Conference, he would not be incorrect. But as much as the early returns on the Spurs' 2016-17 campaign have been a little disappointing (at least compared to those of the Warriors and Clippers), this remains one of the best teams in the league. Sure, they dumped a game to Orlando (here at home!) earlier in the week and then followed that up by barely beating a terrible Dallas team on the road. But the ornery Popovich, I believe, will have his team ready to go tonight against Washington, a team in far worse shape right now than San Antonio. Lay the points.

If you want to talk disappointments, how about the Wizards? Scott Brooks inherited what most believed was a pretty talented roster, led by John Wall and Bradley Beal, but the Wiz are going nowhere fast. Currently, they are 6-11 SU after "giving one away" at Oklahoma City Wednesday night. That was an overtime game and I see the loss being difficult to get over. They are now 1-5 ATS as an underdog and just 1-6 SU on the road. They've not fared well against teams w/ winning records either and their last three wins came against Sacramento, Orlando and Phoenix. A big problem is they are giving up 105.7 PPG and that number goes even higher on the road. This despite playing at a much slower place compared to last year.

Washington has not won in San Antonio since 1999 and I wouldn't look for that streak to come to a halt anytime soon. Keep in mind that these teams have already met once this year and the Spurs won comfortably in D.C., 112-100 as 5.5-pt favorites. Using that line as a baseline for tonight's pointspread, you would then figure San Antonio would be asked to lay double digits. I wouldn't be surprised if the number got there as I don't think bettors will put much stock into the fact this team has already lost four times at home. I also put little to no stock in that as te Spurs are simply the way better team here. 8* San Antonio

10* Minnesota (7:35 ET): Thus far, the T'wolves have been real money-burners at the betting window. Their 5-13 ATS record is a league worst and in the interest of full disclosure, if it weren't for them, my NBA record would be pretty fantastic. I admit to taking them Wednesday, in this first game of a home and home w/ the Knicks, which they promptly lost 106-104 as 3.5-point favorites. But as was the case Wednesday, I still believe Minnesota to be the better team on Friday. Sure, they aren't very good defensively, but the Knicks remain worse and are being outscored by 3.5 pts per 100 possessions. Early line movement seems to indicate the "sharps" are w/ me on this one as well. Take the points.

Wednesday's game wasn't decided until Carmelo Anthony sunk the GW jumper w/ 2.3 seconds remaining. That negated an incredible effort by Karl-Anthony Towns, who led all scorers w/ 47 points and added 18 rebounds. Also, the T'wolves (for once!) closed the game strong, using a 20-3 run to tie the game up prior to Anthony's game-winner. Note that this is Minnesota's third three-game losing streak of the year. But they are a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS off the previous two, beating Orlando by 16 (on the road) and Phoenix by 13 (also on the road). Wednesday was the team's fourth loss already by four points or less. I will continue to maintain that the T'wolves are better than the record shows and better than the Knicks.

New York continues to give up an average of 106.1 PPG, which is problematic when you're favored. In defensive efficiency, they are tied for 26th. I'm very surprised to see that the Knicks have covered seven of nine, but note that four of those SU wins have been by four points or less. So, what it boils down to here is the Knicks have been coming out on the right side of some close games while the opposite is true for the T'wolves. I look for that trend to reverse itself here as Minnesota is far too talented to continue losing like this. Courtney Lee is doubtful for the Knicks tonight while Joakim Noah is questionable. 10* Minnesota

10* Cal Poly (11:00 ET):  TX-San Antonio is not a good team at all; they currently rank outside of the top 300 in most projection systems. So the fact they are off a win, as five-point dogs no less, can be used against them here. Even if it means a half-hearted endorsement of a Cal Poly team I just went AGAINST not that long ago. Granted, the Mustangs sit outside the top 250 themselves and are off an unsuccessful stint in DeKalb for Northern Illinois' Thanksgiving Classic Tournament. But returning home, laying a relatively short number, should not be an issue against this weak opponent. While this is the first D-I opponent they've played in their gym, the Mustangs are 2-0 SU at home so far w/ both wins coming by double digits.

The game that I went against Cal Poly was last Friday vs. Illiniois-Chicago as they were actually four-point favorites at a neutral site and ended up losing 84-71. Note that came on the heels of upsetting the tournament host (as 10-pt underdogs), two days earlier. The Mustangs did not shoot the ball well against UIC (only 38.5%) and fell into a rather sizable halftime hole that they could not climb out of. In fact, they missed 23 of 31 field goal attempts in the first half. Things were better the following day against Elon, where the Mustangs in fact had a slight halftime advantage. But attempting 14 less free throws for the game proved to be a difference maker there and helped turn a game that was tied w/ a little over four minutes remaining into a six-point loss. Still though, Cal Poly actually covered the closing line (+6.5).

After allowing 52% shooting in the last two games, Cal Poly's defense should be a lot better here. I say that knowing full well that TX-San Antonio is shooting a woeful 37.4% from the field for the year, including 25.5% from three-point range. The Roadrunners have shot better than 40% in only one game all year (Prairie View A&M) and in their two wins were the beneficiaries of opponents shooting the ball even more dreadfully. One was the Prairie View A&M game (31.5%) and then last Friday, Texas State finished at just 30.0% on ALL field goal attempts (scored just 48 points). The Roadrunners are just 1-6 SU following a game where they allowed 60 or less points. 10* Cal Poly

8* LA Clippers (8:05 ET): Though Cleveland is off a loss here, just their second all year w/ LeBron James in the lineup, I'm going to trust my numbers, which suggest this should be a pick em game. Yes, the Clippers have now lost three in a row, including embarrassing setbacks to both Indiana and Brooklyn. But let us not totally disregard their strong start to the season, particularly on the defensive end where they were ranked #1 in efficiency for the first several weeks (currently #2 behind Atlanta). Meanwhile, the Cavs' defense has been somewhat suspect all year, currently ranking 15th in the league. This will be just the second time this year that LA is an underdog and I had them the first time, when they went to San Antonio and won outright. Take the points.

Since LeBron returned to Cleveland, the Cavaliers have swept all four meetings w/ the Clippers. They are also a perfect 4-0 ATS. But this appears to be a better Clippers team, particularly on the defensive end. Though it's still a "bad" loss, don't be fooled by the 127 pts they allowed to Brooklyn as that game went to double OT (was a brutal beat for me, as I had the Under). After HC Doc Rivers was tossed from that game, I expect him to have his team highly motivated to end this three-game losing streak. Also, Blake Griffin will be back in the lineup after missing Tuesday's game. That's a big boost. This is also one of the few offenses that may be able to keep pace w/ Cleveland. In addition to ranking #2 in efficiency on the defensive end, the Clips are #5 in offense.

The Cavs are #3 in offensive efficiency, but #15 on defense. Despite the great SU record, they have not been a "hit" at the betting window as their 6-9-1 ATS record ranks near the bottom of the league. That can be tied to the number of points per game they are currently allowing (103.7), which is problematic when you're favored in virtually every game. My numbers say this game should basically be a pick em, so I'll take the points here as Cleveland has struggled in B2B games. They are just 11-18 ATS since LeBron returned (two years ago) when off a double digit loss. 8* LA Clippers

8* Over Hawks/Suns (9:05 ET): The Hawks are in the midst of quite the slump right now as they've lost six of their last seven games overall. This was a team that had gotten off to a tremendous start, even ranking as high as #2 in efficiency. But their recent tailspin can largely all be tied to a decline on the offensive end of the floor, as they still rank #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. Thus, you may not be surprised to learn this team has gone Under in each of its last nine games. But tonight, they have an opponent that should allow for them to get back on track and score plenty of points in the process. That would be Phoenix, who is giving up over 112 PPG while playing at the fastest pace in the league. Take the Over here.

The Hawks actually didn't have a bad scoring night Monday in Golden State. What happened was Golden State shot much worse than you'd expect at 43.5% from the field for the game. Truth be told, the Hawks didn't shoot that well either at 41.9%. Scoring also curtailed in the fourth quarter w/ only 44 total pts scored. But again, the offensive woes should be rectified here against a Phoenix team that just gave up 120 pts in its last game. The Suns have actually given up that many in five of their last nine games overall!

As mentioned above, the Suns are currently playing at the fastest pace in the entire league. The Hawks aren't too far behind at seventh, so there should be plenty of possessions here, which obviously should lead to increased scoring. The Suns have gone Over in all five games this season when facing a team w/ a winning record. This is a pretty low total by their standards. Not only do they give up over 112 PPG, but they also score 106.1 PPG. It was poor all-around shooting in both matchups last season, which means the Under has now cashed four straight times when Atlanta and Phoenix have played. But I'll call for that streak to end tonight. 8* Over Hawks/Suns

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): One of these teams is overachieving, the other is underachieving. The former distinction belongs to a Knicks team that many in Vegas have foolishly wagered on as if they're a legitimate NBA Finals contender. They are not. Not only are they beating outscored by 3.7 pts per 100 possessions, they are tied for fourth worst in defensive efficiency. We've started to see them regress back to the mean w/ a pair of losses in recent days, first to Charlotte and then one to Oklahoma City. Here, they travel to Minnesota to face a T'wolves team w/ plenty of talent, despite the less than stellar early season results. This is the front end of a home and home and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Minnesota swept. Lay the points tonight. 

Much has been written on why the T'wolves are not living up to their potential thus far, but know this: despite a 5-12 SU record, they are only being outscored by roughly one point per 100 possessions. They are just outside the top 10 in offensive efficiency, so look for them to take advantage of the sorry Knicks defense tonight. Already, there have been about a half dozen instances where Minny has lost a game SU in which it held a double-digit lead. For whatever reason, their shooting tends to dip rather dramatically in the second half of games. In the first half, they rate as the most efficient offense in the game! That really makes no sense, so look for a young team to "learn how to close" better as we move forward. 

I'd definitely rather have Karl Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins than Carmelo Anthony and Derrick Rose. Monday night vs. Utah was yet another example though of the T'wolves letting one get away. After rallying to take the lead in the fourth quarter, they lost 112-103. But I still feel tonight's game can be the beginning of a turnaround. The Knicks allow a frightening 111.7 PPG on the road where they are just 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS. Minnesota has struggled to cover the spread in home games the L3 seasons (32-55 ATS!), but are underpriced for a change here tonight. 10* Minnesota

8* Detroit (7:35 ET): The Pistons turned in a really strong effort last night, beating Charlotte on the road, 112-89 (as four-point underdogs). Yet they're certainly not getting much respect tonight here in Boston. One would have to assume they're being falsely penalized for the back to back situation, but we can use that to our advantage here and grab what I believe - clearly - is an inflated number. Boston was expected to be the #2 team in the East this year (behind Cleveland), but has yet to play anywhere near that level. In fact, I have them rated as the sixth best team in the East right now, which is actually lower than last season! While they've covered three straight times as a favorite, the Celtics are laying too many here.

Interestingly enough, the C's have won their last four road games, but lost two in a row here at home. That has more to do w/ who they've played as the last two teams to come here to Beantown were Golden State and San Antonio. Their last four visits were to Detroit, Brooklyn, Minnesota and Miami. Yes, Detroit is included in there as they beat the Pistons 94-92 as two-point underdogs back on November 19th. I didn't see enough there or subsequently to justify this rather sizable shift in the marketplace. Boston still ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of defensive efficiency. Al Horford is back from paternity leave, but I still don't think that alone justifies the price increase. Over the last 19 days, the Celtics have only one win by more than eight points and it was against sorry Brooklyn.

Making the Pistons blowout of the Hornets all the more impressive was that they did so largely w/o the services of Andre Drummond, who was ejected in the second quarter for throwing an elbow. While still only 2-8 ATS on the road this year, I think we'll start to see the Pistons take advantage of some generous spreads like this one. They too were expected to make a leap in the Eastern Conference standings and early on it appeared as if the "cart had been put before the horse." But over the L5 games, they're holding teams to just 95 PPG and that includes a really impressive win over the Clippers. Taking the points is the way to go here. 8* Detroit

8* Miami FL (7:00 ET): Following last night's proceedings, we're down to only 19 remaining unbeatens in College Hoops. Three went down yday: Maryland (who I faded), Houston and Tennessee State. More of these teams are likely (guaranteed) to fall in the coming days and tonight I'm targeting Rutgers, who seems like the surest of the bunch to go down. Not only are the Scarlet Knights the second weakest of those 19 remaining unbeatens (only Texas A&M-CC weaker), they are huge underdogs tonight at Miami. But I don't think the spread is large enough as the 'Canes should absolutely roll Wednesday night as they return home smarting off B2B losses. Lay the points.

Though Miami is not in the Top 25, I believe them to be worthy of discussion for being ranked. Yes, they did just lose to Iowa State and Florida in the Advocare Invitational, but those are both worthy adversaries. Poor shooting, not to mention turnovers, cost them in both contests. They shot just 37.7 percent from the floor against Florida and 36.0 percent vs. ISU. There were a combined 32 turnovers. I envision the shooting will improve tonight and the number of turnovers will come down. This will be just the third "true" home game for Jim Laranaga's team. They did beat a good Stanford team in their first game in Lake Buena Vista. Defensively, I see no issues as the team ranks 28th in FG% defense (37.4) and 12th in scoring (58.7 PPG). 

Tip your cap to this start from Rutgers as the program has not had a winning season since 2005-06. They went 7-25 SU last year, including a horrendous 1-17 mark in the Big 10. But before we go anointing the Scarlet Knights anything that they are not, let's note they have yet to play anyone of any real substance these first six games. They're off a narrow, two-point win over Hartford where the GW basket was scored w/ just six seconds remaining. My guess is that had that result gone the other way (which it easily could have), then this line would be much higher and basically where it SHOULD be. In fact, the Scarlet Knights actually trailed Hartford at one point by as many as 13 pts in the second half! This team does not shoot the ball well at all (just 43%) and has been fortunate to get bailed out by an unsustainable rebounding rate. They won't have that here and you have to figure the shooting woes will continue against a strong defensive foe like Miami. 8* Miami

10* Marshall (7:00 ET): It's yet another unbeaten that I'm targeting on Wednesday, this one happening to be Ohio University. The Bobcats are 4-0 SU, easily the fewest wins of any of the 19 remaining unbeaten teams in the land, and hardly crack my own top 100. The do have a win over Georgia Tech, on the road no less, but tonight I don't see them having that kind of success in Huntington, WV where Marshall awaits, looking to exact revenge from an 85-70 loss in Athens LY. The Thundering Herd also are off their first defeat of 2016, that coming at the hands of Ohio State on Friday, 111-70. After suffering that kind of blowout and already looking for revenge, I look for the Herd to come out highly motivated this evening.

When these teams met last season, Ohio enjoyed a sizable edge in free throw attempts (+20!) and w/ 12 more makes than Marshall, that was essentially responsible for the final margin. It should also be pointed out that the Bobcats shot the ball quite well (50.8%). But it's a little concerning to see that they were at only 37.3% from the field against Tennessee Tech on Friday, a game they failed to cover as 16.5-point chalk. It should also be pointed out that OU was 11.5-point favorites last season, so Marshall has obviously improved. The Thundering Herd are likely to do better than 22.7% shooting from three-point range (5-22) now that they're at home.

Both teams defend the three-pointer well, but Marshall does it better. Opponents are shooting just 28.6% from behind the arc against them this year and that's after Ohio State's blistering performance on Friday. Meanwhile, it's really just one game helping Ohio's three-point FG% defense, that being the upset of Georgia Tech (youngest team in the country!) where the Yellow Jackets were a dreadful 3 of 11. Kenny Kaminski made five three-pointers in that game, but his status is listed as questionable for tonight due to a shoulder injury. That looms large. Meanwhile, Marshall gets back starter Ryan Taylor after the one-game suspension vs. Ohio State. That suspension was actually HC Dan D'Antoni's decision due to Taylor getting ejected from the team's 71-61 win over Jackson State. I like Marshall in this one. 10* Marshall

10* Illinois (9:00 ET): Though I'm not feeling too good about the Big 10's overall prospects in this year's "Challenge" vs. the ACC, here's a game where I feel the conference can "steal one." Granted, John Groce's Fighting Illini come into this one having not covered a single game in 2016. But, even after three consecutive losses, I like this line a lot. NC State is off a real nailbiter, 79-77 over Loyola IL, which was their second two-point victory of this campaign already. The first came in the opener against Georgia Southern. The Wolfpack were double digit favorites in both of those games, so imagine what is likely to ensue in a matchup perceived to be far more even by the oddsmakers. Take the points.

A Thanksgiving trip to Brooklyn did not go well for Illinois, but they also had to take on pair of ranked teams in consecutive nights. The first was West Virginia and they were humiliated there, 89-57. Friday saw them go down by double digits again, this time "only" 72-61, at Florida State's expense. That was actually a tie game w/ less than 10 minutes to play, so don't let the final score mislead you. As uninspiring as those results may be, NC State will absolutely be a drop in class for the Fighting Illini in terms of opponent and I imagine Groce will have his team highly motivated as they return home off three consecutive losses. Over the past two seasons, the Illini are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS when taking the court on a three-game losing streak.

NC State is still w/o Maverick Rowan (concussion) as tonight will be the fifth consecutive game that he's missed. This is in addition to another player,  Omer Yurtseven, being suspended for the first nine games of the season. Note that it was not easy for the Wolfpack on Saturday against Loyola IL as they fell behind by double digits in the first half. Granted, the Ramblers were red-hit from three-point range (58.8%), but that probably shouldn't have happened in Raleigh. Now they play a "true" road game for the first time all year. I look for Malcolm Hill to play better for Illinois tonight as the team avoids what would be a second straight loss to an ACC opponent. 10* Illinois

10* Under Clippers/Nets (7:35 ET): The 14-4 Clippers began the year at an unsustainable clip, posting a defensive efficiency rating that would have put LY's Spurs to shame. So, it's not a huge surprise to find them regressing of late. However, losses to both Detroit and Indiana on the current trip are a bit concerning. Particularly the performance Sunday vs. the Pacers where they finished w/ only 70 points and shot just 31.4%. It was the franchise's first time scoring that few since '03 and it was just the 10th time in Doc Rivers' tenure that they turned the ball over 20+ times. The Clips continue to fly all over the country w/ a stop in Brooklyn tonight and while this SHOULD be an easy one for the road team, I'm looking at the total instead. 

The Nets are in an awful way right now as they've lost seven straight and the best they've done at the betting window during this time is manage one push (0-6-1 ATS). They rank at the opposite end of the spectrum in defensive efficiency (29th) compared to the Clippers, so obviously this shapes up as a very bad matchup for the hosts, who have already lost by 32 to LA once this year. That game started the seven-game slide and five more have been by double digits. In four of the last five games, Brooklyn has allowed the opponent to shoot 55% or better (!) from the floor. Despite that, I do NOT envision the Clips topping their own shooting from the previous game w/ the Nets, which was 53.3% overall and 56% from three-point range. (They were also 17 of 21 from the FT line). 

Brooklyn is a perfect 7-0 Over against Western Conference teams this year, but 5-1 Under the L6 times they've been a home dog of at least 12.5 points. So, like the defensive efficiency numbers, something will have to give here. While the Clips offense was dreadful the last game, their defense remains #2 in efficiency for the year. Brooklyn actually made 10 three-pointers against them in that previous meeting (on 33 attempts!), a number I imagine will decrease tonight. The Clippers scored 71 pts in the first half of that previous meeting as well, another number that likely won't be approached again here. LA's defense wins out tonight and two teams that have been going Over a lot recently conspire to stay Under the total. 10* Under Clippers/Nets

8* Pittsburgh (7:00 ET): Early returns have indicated that this year's ACC vs. Big 10 Challenge may end up a fairly one-sided affair in favor of the former.  Now, you wouldn't deduce that judging from last night's 1-1 split, but rather the body of work that lies outside the official "Challenge" where ACC teams rocked their Big 10 counterparts in a number of early season matchups. The ACC has not won this event since 2008, but already is 7-1 head to head vs. the Big 10 in 2016! Interesting is that of the 22 teams still w/o a loss nationally, six will be participating in this event. That should make for some interesting fade opportunities, including this one w/ 7-0 Maryland, who will get perhaps their stiffest test to date w/ a visit from Pittsburgh. Take the points.

The Terps may be unbeaten, but this has the "feel" of a pretty even matchup. Pitt has lost only one time, to SMU at a neutral site. I think that a big key here is the fact Maryland is coming off a much tougher weekend and may have less "in the tank." While Pitt made 11 three-pointers in a 76-63 win over Morehead State on Friday, Maryland had to play close games w/ both Richmond and Kansas State Friday & Saturday in Brooklyn. The 69-68 win over Kansas State, as three-point underdogs, saw Melo Trimble make a layup w/ 6.9 seconds remaining to give the Terps the win. It was the team's second upset of the year already as early in the campaign, they went to Georgetown and won 76-75 as 6.5-pt dogs, a game that the Hoyas basically gave away and was again won by Trimble in the final seconds w/ a pair of free throws. 

So that's two last second, one-point victories for Maryland in seven games, which is pretty fortunate. In fact, they already have five wins by six points or less! That includes home games against American and Towson State. Teams are going to start shooting better from three-point range against the Terps than they have been thus far (28.7%). Earlier, if you recall, I mentioned the fact that Pitt sank 11 three-pointers in their last game. They come in averaging 81.3 PPG overall. With the spread being so short, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if this ends up being an outright win by the dog. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Over Hawks/Warriors (10:35 ET): What an interesting matchup we have here as it's a battle of the most efficient offense and the most efficient defense in the entire league. The fact that the Hawks own the latter distinction (allow just .97 pts per possession) is of little consolation, however, to a team that comes in as losers in five of their last six games. They fell last night in Los Angeles, not to the Clippers, but rather 109-94 to the Lakers. The fact that Atlanta has been held under 100 pts in every game during this 1-5 SU slide is a big reason why the Under is now 8-0 their last eight games. They should score more tonight, but they'll of course give up a lot more points as well and thus I'm on the Over here. 

Golden State is tops in the league at 1.15 points per possession. Thats by far and away #1 as Cleveland is #2, averaging 1.11. With Kevin Durant becoming more and more fully integrated, this has a chance to be the greatest offensive team of all-time. To put that efficiency rating into some perspective, the most efficient offense we've ever seen is the 2009-10 Phoenix Suns at 1.12. The fact that the Warriors are ahead of last year's pace offensively was to be expected, but should not be understated. This is a team that has not lost a game since November 4th. Since then, they've reeled off 11 consecutive victories while averaging an astounding 121.6 PPG. They've scored 115 in all but two of the games.

Atlanta's offensive numbers took a massive hit w/ a dreadful outing Friday night in Utah where they finished w/ only 68 points on 31.1% shooting. Needless to say, that likely ends up being their worst offensive effort of the entire season. They improved somewhat last night against the Lakers, scoring 94, but I'd expect even more scoring here as GSW is allowing 107.7 PPG at home. Meanwhile, the Hawks defense which had been so good at the start of the year, has now allowed 100+ in five of the last seven games. The back to back scenario does them no favors here, even though they are 4-0 SU/ATS when playing w/o rest this season. I do think the Hawks will have more success on the interior tonight against the undersized Warriors and don't discount the impact of the Warriors fouling Dwight Howard a lot. They've done so in the past and if Howard can convert at any kind of competent level, then we'll be in good shape here. 10* Over Hawks/Warriors

8* Butler (9:00 ET): It speaks volumes to the discrepancy between the the two teams that Butler comes in favored here in Salt Lake City. To me, the Bulldogs are a Top 25 team. But I can't say the same for the host Utes, even though they too are still undefeated. Butler has raced out to a 6-0 SU start, including wins over Vanderbilt and Arizona on consecutive nights (Thurs and Fri) over Thanksgiving Night. This marks their first "true" road game, but the Bulldogs also represent Utah's first "real" competition. The Utes' 4-0 SU start includes wins over the likes of NW Nazarene, Concordia, Coppin State and UC-Riverside. The two D-I opponents both rank outside my top 250 w/ 0-7 Coppin State being one of the worst teams in the entire country. Butler is both better overall and more battle-tested. Lay the short number.

With six new players on the roster, many though this would be a rebuilding year for Butler. Think again? They proved they are for real by beating the #8 ranked team in the land (Arizona) Friday in Las Vegas. It's not like that win surprised the oddsmakers; the Bulldogs actually came in as the slight favorite! Again, I feel this is one of the 20 best teams in the country right now. While shooting the ball at a 50% clip themselves, including 38.5% from three-point range, Butler is holding its opponents to just 41.3% from the field. By the way, they've also now covered 22 of the last 32 non-conference games! Already, they have three wins over Power 5 teams (N'western, Vandy, Arizona). 

All we really know about Utah at this point is they are tall. The schedule thus far has been ranked as the easiest in all of Division I! Like Butler, there's been a lot of roster turnover from last year. The fact the Utes have won 32 straight at home vs. non-conference foes should be respected, but again this line "speaks for itself." Butler probably will be in the Top 25 by tipoff and I see them staying there. 8* Butler

10* Under Rockets/Blazers (9:05 ET): This is a really high total, but considering Houston's reputation and Portland's results, that should not be a surprise. The Rockets, as you'd expect under HC Mike D'Antoni, are top five in the league in points per game. But don't think for a second the oddsmakers weren't anticipating this. The average total for their games has been 215 points and as a result, the Under 10-6 overall, including 7-1 when they're coming off a game where they scored 105+ points. Here, they are off a 117-104 win over Sacramento where they set a NBA record w/ 50 three-point attempts. Facing a Portland team that is playing - on average - the second highest scoring games in the league (trailing only Golden State), there is a recipe for a ton of points here. But the total is too high. Take the Under.

The Blazers' defense, or rather lack of it, has been really bad. They are actually dead last in the league in efficiency, giving up 1.09 points per possession. They were recently torched by Cleveland (allowed 80 first half pts), a team that like Houston makes its living scoring off made baskets. But the defense was a lot better vs. New Orleans (allowed only 104 pts) on Friday. Note that despite all the poor defensive numbers, Portland games are still averaging just 222.2 PPG. I expect the defense to improve moving forward while their own scoring should decrease. The Under is 2-0 this year when they're off a double digit win.

These teams did already meet this year and it was Houston winning 126-109 at home. That's a bad precedent from our perspective, but the likelihood of the teams combining to shoot 37 of 46 from the FT line again is small. That was Houston's second highest scoring game of the season. The number of three-pointers made by both teams - Houston in particular - that we've seen recently should start to decrease. On a sheer attempt basis, the Rockets probably won't come close to matching the number from the last game. Meanwhile, Portland will not dominate the interior here like they did vs. New Orleans. 10* Under Rockets/Blazers

10* Stanford (7:00 ET): This is the final day of the Advocare Invitational as Stanford and Seton Hall play a consolation game. Both teams lost in the first day of the event, Stanford to Miami FL and Seton Hall to Florida. Each bounced back yday. Stanford beat Indiana State 65-62, but failed to cover as six-point favorites. Seton Hall took on Quinnipiac and while they won 90-79, the too failed to cover (as lofty 22-point favorites). You may recall from a play earlier this year that I've identified the Cardinal as a 'play on' team for 2016. Meanwhile, as you may also recall, I just played against Seton Hall vs. Florida, citing the Pirates' ATS record from last season as a driving force to fade them more often than not this season. Take the points.

Things started well this year for Stanford as they opened 4-0 SU, covering their first three lined games. I had them in the opener against Harvard, a game they won 80-70 as 3.5-point favorites. They followed that w/ dominating wins over CS-Northridge and Weber State. A 16-point spread proved to be too much against Colorado State, though they still won SU, 56-49. Poor shooting has hurt them here in Lake Buena Vista though. Against Miami, things started well w/ a nine-point first half lead. But after going into the break up by just four, they allowed Miami to shoot a ridiculous 62.5% after halftime. Stanford shot just 41.2% and was actually worse against Indiana State (36.5%) despite winning that one. It took a massive edge at the free throw line and a last second three to pull out the 65-62 win Friday, but I still liked what I saw enough to endorse the Cardinal here. 

Seton Hall, unlike Stanford, has shot the ball well this season. The one exception though was the game I went against them. They made only 42.9% from the floor against Florida, scoring a season-low 76 points. But while the Pirates can score, can they play defense? They've allowed an average of 81 points the L3 games, so as a favorite it's going to be tough to cover. While they were 22-10-1 at the betting window last year, Seton Hall is just 1-3 ATS this year, the lone cover being the upset at Iowa. Bad news (for them) is that Pirates starting forward Ismael Sanogo is a game-time decision due to a shoulder issue. Defensively, the Cardinal are the much better team here as they hold teams to just 36.9% shooting overall, including 26.7% from three-point range. 10* Stanford

10* Minnesota (10:35 ET): This is the second game of a back to back for both teams and both won last night. Minnesota, per the usual, dominated a lesser foe. Golden State swept a home and home w/ the Lakers. Again, I'm bucking a little history here as the T'Wolves are an almost unfathomable 0-16 SU (3-13 ATS) off their last 16 double digit victories. I'm willing to guess that most of the spreads haven't been this high, however. Yes, that has plenty to do with the opponent, but I believe that a) the T'Wolves are much better than their actual record and b) the Warriors are due for a letdown after winning 10 in a row. Take the points here.

Minnesota's five wins this year have come against Memphis, the Lakers, Orlando, Philadelphia and Phoenix. All were by double digit margins. They are 0-4 SU/ATS off the previous four victories, but in none of those instances were they getting this level of disrespect from the oddsmakers. I again lean on the fact that Tom Thibodeau's team has a positive point differential and efficiency rating despite the losing record. Last night marked yet another game where they held a double digit lead at one point in the game. That's been happening in almost every game for Minnesota. But usually they're blowing them. Last night was different, however, as they outscored the Suns 31-10 in the fourth quarter. Look for that result to build some confidence for this young team. All five starters scored in double digits last night, by the way.

Minnesota played Golden State tough last season, even winning a game here in Oakland as 14.5-point dogs. There was also a narrow five-point loss at home. Overall, they've covered three in a row at Golden State and are 5-2 ATS against them the L3 seasons in all meetings. The Warriors are just 23-26 ATS the L3 seasons as home favorites of 12.5 or more points. It should be noted that GSW shot the ball ridiculously well in the two games against the Lakers (56%!) while Minnesota is coming off two poor shooting efforts (39%). Those should start to even out and while the Warriors are now back to #1 in my own personal power rankings, I do not see them covering tonight. 10* Minnesota

8* Fordham (5:00 ET): UT Arlington is 3-3 SU so far and the results have essentially gone "according to script." Their three wins have all been against non-lined opponents - TX Southern, St. Francis-IL and Mount St. Mary's - while their three losses all came on the road, to Minnesota, Florida Gulf Coast and Arkansas. Here, they have opened as a slight favorite for another three-game trip, which begins in Fordham. The Rams lost their only road game so far, the season opener, 96-59 at East Tennessee State. But they've bounced back with five consecutive home wins, including routs of their only two lined opponents - Rider and St. Peter's. So I see some value in them only needing a SU win this afternoon.

This is also a revenge spot for Fordham, who lost 77-72 (+3) at UT Arlington in the season opener last year. Despite shooting the ball better overall, including from three-point range, the Rams still lost by 5. The key was they only got to the free throw line six times. While they converted every opportunity from the charity stripe, it wasn't enough even w/ UT Arlington shooting only 57.1% there. That's because the Mavericks got to the line 21 times and their six extra makes were essentially the difference. I do not expect that discrepancy to exist today and if it does, it will be in favor of the Rams. Also, the teams both attempt about 21 FT's per game. Fordham is shooting 77% there while UT Arlington is 58.4%.

The Rams have won 16 straight at home against non-conference competition, so you can see why this can be perceived as a great value. Defensively, this team seems to be much improved this year. While the class of opponent can be called into question, they've allowed an average of just 55.8 points the L4 games. Forcing turnovers has been huge as they are averaging over 11 steals per game. On both ends of the floor, Joseph Chartouny has led the way as he's averaged better than four steals per game during these L4 games while on the offensive end he's averaging 16.2 PPG on 56% shooting. Meanwhile, UT Arlington will likely be unable to continue its recent hot shooting from the L2 games (53.4 FG%), here on the road. 8* Fordham

10* Charlotte (7:35 ET): It's pretty shocking that the Knicks have a .500 record. They have been outscored by an average of 3.2 points per game this season and have a similar efficiency rating of -3.5. There's only a handful of Eastern Conference teams doing worse than those numbers currently. However, the Knicks have been able to post B2B wins over Atlanta and Portland to start the week to square their record away at seven wins and seven losses. This is a third straight home, but unlike the first two I see no edges for the Knickerbockers. Charlotte should come in plenty motivated (off three straight losses) and is the better team to begin with. They  have started the year by cashing 7 of the 10 times they've been favorites. The number here is virtually irrelevant, but I expect the Hornets to win.

New York had some minor edges heading into their past two games. It was an early start time Sunday vs. Atlanta and those always seem to favor the home side. They were catching the Hawks playing the second of B2B road games as well as Charlotte had just beaten them two days earlier. Then, it was a visit from a Portland team who is actually one of the few with a worse defensive efficiency rating than the Knicks. So, a 107-103 win wasn't too surprising there and note that was a close game (could have gone either way) throughout. I would still be concerned w/ the Knicks defense (26th in efficiency) and I won't even waste my breath touching on the offensive situation as Phil Jackson is still pressing the team to run his antiquated triangle scheme.

Charlotte just played San Antonio really tough on Wednesday night. That was a home game on ESPN that saw them come up five points short as five-point underdogs. Eight Hornets actually scored in double figures there (good sign!), but a season high 16 turnovers really undid them. It was their third straight loss, but that stretch includes a trip to resurgent New Orleans as well. The home loss to Memphis was not ideal, but the Grizzlies have been playing well of late also. The key is all three of those teams are better than the Knicks, who are just 4-10 SU and ATS as home underdogs of three points or less. 10* Charlotte

8* Under Bulls/76ers (7:35 ET): The last seven times that these teams have met, the Over has cashed every time. But I look for a lower scoring game than expected tonight, off the quick holiday break. The Bulls have given up B2B 110 point games to the Lakers and Nuggets. But it's a likely decline in offensive production that I'd be most worried about if I were them. With the Sixers, they rank 28th in offensive efficiency, so don't look for them to put up 110 points here. In fact, they come in averaging only 98.1 PPG and the Bulls did have a four-game stretch recently where they held every opponent below 100. That was before running into the Clippers, Lakers and Nuggets, all high-scoring teams. This is a different kind of opponent. Take the Under.

Chicago had covered six in a row before making the trip to Denver on Tuesday night. There, they held the Nuggets to just 19 pts in two of the four quarters (1st and 4th), but unfortunately they gave up a total of 72 points in the second and third. But again, it's the offense that has surprised me most in the early part of this season as the Bulls rank seventh in efficiency, but only 19th in true shooting percentage. They've been propped up a bit by outstanding free throw shooting (82.1%). But look for these numbers to take a hit due to some continued absences such as Doug McDermott and Michael Carter-Williams. The Under is 6-3-1 in their road games this season.

The Sixers have been one of the worst offensive teams in the league for many years now. They are 29th in efficiency currently, ahead of only Orlando. They're one of just five teams averaging fewer than one point per possession. They just played one of the other four, Memphis, and while that game went Over you should note that was a byproduct of double overtime. Even w/ the additional 10 minutes played, the game still ended up only 104-99. It was 86-86 at the end of regulation w/ both teams shooting below 39% for the game. Joel Embid remains on a minutes restriction, which hurts, and he isn't even going to play tonight as a result. I see a sluggish, lower-scoring type affair tonight. 8* Under Bulls/76ers

10* Illinois-Chicago (4:30 ET): This is the second game for both teams and of the day in the NIU Showcase (Northern Illinois), played here in DeKalb. Obviously, one stands to reason that UIC would have the edge in whatever crowd support is present Friday afternoon. But Cal Poly did just beat the host team of this event, 68-64 as 10-pt underdogs, Wednesday night. However, for that very reason, I'm calling for a letdown here from the Mustangs, who now curiously find themselves in the role of favorite for this second game here. UIC, meanwhile, looks to atone for a 91-80 loss suffered against Elon. The Flames have scored 80+ points in every game so far, making them the proverbial "tough out" taking points.

Interestingly, Cal Poly had dropped its first two "true" road games of the campaign, losing at both Pepperdine and Arizona State by a combined 31 points. Wins over non-lined foes Cat St. Dom Hills and Bethesda weren't enough to impress me, so I actually faded them Wednesday vs. Northern Illinois. That obviously turned out to be a mistake as the Mustangs shot 51.1% from the floor, including 11 of 22 from three-point range, which was probably the difference in the game. After leading for much of the first half, Cal Poly wound up falling behind by six with just over eight minutes remaining in the game and it was looking as if I might have a shot at the cover. But, the Mustangs were able to mount an impressive rally from there and instead take the game outright. Note that they are just 9-14 ATS in the favorite role the past two seasons.

UIC is 2-2 SU on the young season. Besides what happened Wednesday, their only other loss came by two points out in San Francisco. Overall, the Flames have shot the ball quite well thus far. They're at 47.7% from the floor. But they've struggled from beyond the arc, connecting at only 28.2%. Assuming Cal Poly "cools off" from outside (compared to their last game) and UIC has a modicum of improvement in that department, there's your difference maker right there. I just can't see Cal Poly winning B2B games out here in the "Land of Lincoln," so an outright upset is a distinct possibility here. 10* Illinois-Chicago

10* Florida (8:30 ET): It's certainly been an interesting start to the season for Florida. They've yet to play an actual home game as the O'Connell Center is still being renovated. This hasn't seemed to bother them though as they've opened the year w/ four consecutive wins at neutral sites, the most recent being a 78-61 triumph over Belmont on Monday. It was their third double digit victory of the young season so far. Tonight, a much closer game is expected against Seton Hall as part of the Advocare Invitational in Lake Buena Vista. The Pirates arrive in the Sunshine State fresh off a minor upset of an Iowa (in Iowa City!) and while I can see why a lot of people are calling for the same thing here, the value is on the Gators. Lay the short number.

It's not like Florida has had to venture far this season. The first two games of the season were played in nearby Jacksonville and neither Florida Gulf Coast nor Mercer proved to be much competition. St. Bonaventure was able to hang tough in Lakeland last Thursday, but as mentioned above, Belmont was no match in Tampa earlier this week. I feel that the fact the Gators have to play their first 11 games all outside of Gainesville will benefit them greatly. While not ranked, I certainly feel Mike White's team is making a strong case and should be favored by more in its home state. A great sign for the Gators thus far is their free throw shooting is much improved from last year when they ranked 323rd (out of 346) nationally. This year, they are up to 75.2% from the charity stripe and that's proven to be a big edge for them so far (more on that in a bit).

Seton Hall has shot the lights out in their first three games at 54.2% overall. But here they'll be running into a team that has limited its opponents to a 38.4% shooting thus far and only 60 points per game. Free throw shooting can decide games and this year it looks to be a problem for Seton Hall, who is only at 56.6%, barely higher than their overall field goal percentage! Florida has really benefited thus far from poor opponent FT shooting (57.8%), so could that trend continue? Speaking of trends, Seton Hall is due to regress after posting one of the better ATS records in the country last year. The Pirates could come out flat after being off for a week. 10* Florida

8* Oklahoma City (10:35 ET): My, how times have changed? The Thunder are crashing, to the point they are now getting points ... in Sacramento? Yikes. Last night brought a brutal loss, to the Lakers, as Nick Young stunned everyone w/ a go-ahead three-pointer w/ only five seconds remaining. The final score was 111-109, OKC's second consecutive defeat by four points or less. They are now only 8-7 SU this season, their first w/o Kevin Durant, but that hardly qualifies them to be a dog to a lowly foe like the Kings. The difference between the Thunder and Pelicans (who I'm playing against in this 3-pack) tonight is expect the former to be more motivated in their unrested situation. Take the points.

Sacramento was on the winning end of a buzzer beater Sunday night, or should I say the right side of a disallowed buzzer beater? Hosting Toronto (were 3-pt underdogs), the Kings led by what ended up being the final score when the Raptors' Terrance Ross hit a three-pointer. But the officials set the clock didn't start on time and disallowed the shot in controversial fashion. Truth be told, the Kings were fortunate they got off to such a strong start (36 first quarter points) as they likely would have lost had the game gone to OT (though I can't prove it!). They also still rank dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. A major story thus far has been their decreased pace of play under HC Dave Joerger.

Oklahoma City was 6-1 SU to start the season and still has Russell Westbrook, who is nearly averaging a triple double. They also rank 6th in defensive efficiency, a far cry from where the Kings are at. Joerger started a smaller lineup against Toronto in an effort to speed the pace up, but the problem w/ that here will be OKC figures to dominate them on the boards. The Thunder are currently fourth in the league in rebounding rate. Oklahoma City was an 8.5-point favorite in both visits to California's capital city last season. Obviously, the departure of Durant must be figured in, but this line is a clear overreaction to recent results by the oddsmakers. 8* Oklahoma City

8* Minnesota (9:35 ET): New Orleans embarrassed me (and the Hawks) last night as they went on the road and picked up a surprising 112-94 win as eight-point pups. It was their third consecutive win and cover and fifth straight up win in the last seven games following an 0-8 SU start. The return of PG Jrue Holliday has proven huge as its eases the burden of Anthony Davis, who was left to carry a sorry supporting cast early in the year. But I don't like the Pelicans chances tonight in the second game of a back to back as they face a T'wolves squad that's a whole lot better than its 4-9 SU record shows. Most of their games have been in the pick 'em range thus far, but this is an opponent they should be favored to beat - even on the road.

Believe it or not, Minnesota still sports a positive YTD point differential and efficiency rating despite the losing record. That's largely owed to the fact that their four wins have all been blowouts. The four teams that they've blown out - Memphis, the Lakers, Orlando and Philadelphia - span efficiency ratings that the Pelicans would fall right in the middle of (below Grizzlies & Lakers, but above Magic & Sixers). The T'wolves still rank 7th in offensive efficiency, even after being held to an average of 82 PPG in losses to Memphis and Boston. The game vs. the Celtics was yet another where this team blew a double digit lead (led by 13 entering the fourth quarter). They've now held a double digit lead in virtually every game this season.

The Pelicans are 3-0 SU since Holliday's return, but it was a career night from fellow PG Tim Frazier (21 pts, 14 assists) that set the tone in last night's shocking blowout in Atlanta. Right off the bat, realize that New Orleans is 1-3 SU/ATS this season when playing in the second game of a back to back this season. Don't look for them to duplicate last night's shooting where they were 52% overall and 44% from three-point range. They are also still giving up 113.2 PPG at home, a frightening number considering Davis' presence. Last year, they gave up 144 points to the T'wolves in a loss! 8* Minnesota

10* Northern Illinois (8:00 ET): After losing for the first time, I like the Huskies' chances of getting back on track tonight in DeKalb. Saturday, they lost by two out at Cal State Northridge (covered as 2.5-pt dogs), but here it's a West Coast team having to make the trip to their gym. All things considered, it's been an impressive start for Northern Illinois as they've won all three home games, including one against Indiana State. Can't say the same for Cal Poly-SLO, however, as the Mustangs lost and failed to cover their first two road games, at Pepperdine and Arizona State. Back to back home wins over the likes of Cal St Dom Hills and Bethesda aren't going to change my view of this team whatsoever. Lay the points.

This is NIU's own tournament, so you'd naturally expect them to play well. Elon and IL-Chicago are also in DeKalb this week and will be the next two opponents for both teams with three games played over a four-day span (no games tomorrow). Yes, I did play against Northern Illinois on Saturday in that trip to CS-Northridge. I was lucky enough to escape with a push (bet the game at -2), but the reality is even that was quite the fortunate result. One could reasonably conclude that the Huskies would have won that game were it not for a massive shooting disparity that saw them make only 34.1% of their FG attempts while CS-Northridge was 51.9%. Both teams actually made the same number of field goals (28), but NIU had 82 attempts to 54 for CSN! If just two of those extra 28 shots would have gone down, they would have won!

A big reason that I went against Northern Illinois in that spot was they were on the road and their opponent had revenge. Neither of those situations are present tonight. The Huskies have won 31 of their past 37 home games and are 14-1 SU (10-3 ATS) after scoring 80+ Points the previous game. In the first three games in DeKalb, they averaged 80.7 PPG. Meanwhile, Cal Poly is just 8-23 SU its L31 road games and allowed both Pepperdine and Arizona State to shoot better than 50% from the field earlier in the year. If NIU can get off anywhere near the number of shots they did at Cal-State Northridge, they'll win this one easily. 10* Northern Illinois

10* Miami (7:35 ET): Coming into the year, these were two Eastern Conference teams expected to trend in very opposite directions. Miami finished third in the conference LY w/ a 48-34 SU record, but the defection of Dwyane Wade and others (no Chris Bosh) led most reasonable minds to conclude that the Heat would tumble down the standings this year. That has pretty much played out as they stand at 4-9 entering tonight after an embarrassing loss to the 76ers on Monday. But, somewhat surprisingly, the Pistons appear to be in just as bad of shape as they've dropped four in a row entering tonight (also 0-4 ATS) and they're simply not playing as well as people expected coming off LY's 8th place finish. Take the points.

One bright spot for the Heat right now is their defense. They are one of only three teams in the league to currently be allowing fewer than one point per possession. A big key in that is Hassan Whiteside, who is averaging 14.8 points, 12.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game. He had a career-high 32 points against Philadelphia, but the problem is that no one else stepped up. Quite frankly, the rest of the Heat were terrible as they combined to shoot a horrendous 21 of 69 from the floor, which is barely above 30%. One could point to the absence of Justise Winslow, but things had been going fine previous to Monday as the team had won B2B games straight up and covered four straight. Yes, there was a six-game SU losing streak to start November, but half of those losses were by three points or less.

The same can be said for Detroit, who has lost three times by three points or less in this four-game losing streak of theirs. But they're still being priced as if that streak has not occurred, which is a problem for them. I have these teams rated evenly coming into tonight, so anything over +3 is a value on Miami, especially in what figures to be a low-scoring game (Under is 7-0 in Detroit home games so far). Overall, the Pistons are just 2-7 SU and ATS their last nine games. 10* Miami

8* James Madison (4:00 ET): It has not been a good start to the season for the Dukes of JMU. I should know as I played against them 10 days ago, when as a 6-point favorite, they lost outright to Rice 94-70! They're now 0-4 following losses to Montana State and Texas Southern. Therefore, it may seem curious that the oddsmakers would favor them here, but that probably speaks to how bad UL Lafayette is. The Ragin Cajuns dropped their first two games, both on the road, one at Montana State as well. They've since "bounced back" w/ B2B wins at home, but both came against non-lined opponents, OK Panhandle State and Delaware State. Monday's win over Delaware State came only by a single point. Lay the points here.

James Madison did not shoot the ball well vs. Texas Southern and that's putting it mildly. They shot only 18 of 50 (35%) overall from the floor, including a dreadful 5 of 21 from three-point range. It was their second straight bad shooting night as they were just 30.4% overall at Montana State! Ironically, their best shooting game of the young season came in their most lopsided loss, the aforementioned game against Rice. That one was at least at home, so that's something to lean on. I see the offense increasing tonight against a LA Lafayette team that has already given up 82+ points in three games this season. Meanwhile, in the Ragin Cajuns first two road games, they too were below 37% shooting.

A big issue for JMU to this point has been the status of Ramone Snowden and Vince Holmes, two key transfers that were expected to contribute immediately. However, both were quickly suspended for violating team rules. Holmes has yet to play in a game. Snowden, who comes by way of Niagara, has played in every game but is struggling to find his shot (30% FG). I look for Snowden to break out here. Winless and off a game where a comeback effort fell short, I'm expecting to see some fire from JMU here in what will be their last home game before December 20th! There's a sense of urgency in Richmond right now that the visitors will be unable to match tonight. 8* James Madison

8* Indiana (9:00 ET): This will be my second time playing against IPFW this year and the reason here will be, generally speaking, the same as the first. Unbeknownst to many, the Mastadons were the top ATS team in the country last year. That's going by percentage at least as they were 21-8 at the pay window. No team that played at least seven games LY covered at that high of a percentage (almost 75%). Therefore, I've stipulated that regression is coming for 2016-17. After IPFW covered the spread in the season opener, losing 92-83 at Arkansas (but as 15-pt dogs), I target them for a fade last Wednesday and they got hammered by Illinois State, 75-57 (getting only 6.5). I've got no problem laying points here w/ an even better team.

This is a rare early season road date, but obviously they won't be going far. It's their only scheduled "true" road game of the non-conference slate. Having won by nearly 40 pts on Saturday (against Liberty) and w/ the next game not until Sunday, the Mastadons should have the Hoosiers' full attention here. Already, IU has recorded one impressive win as they beat Kansas in the season opener, 103-99 as six-point dogs. Tom Crean typically fields an offensive juggernaut and this year appears to be no different. Through three games, the team is averaging 96.7 PPG. Yes, overtime was needed to beat Kansas, but even then the Hoosiers scored 89 pts in regulation.

One of the games IPFW failed to cover last year was against Indiana. Playing in Bloomington, they lost 90-65 as 20-pt dogs. I don't think that the linesmakers have shifted enough to represent the growing discrepancy between the two programs for this year. Indiana is now ranked #3 in the country. As mentioned earlier, they just destroyed Liberty, holding the Flames to 29.7% shooting from the floor and forcing 26 turnovers. The Hoosiers dominated the rebounding battle and shot better than 60% themselves. It may not be that dominant this go around, but it doesn't have to be. 8* Indiana

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): I'm a little surprised that this isn't a double digit spread. I have the Hawks rated among the top five teams in the league currently, alongside all "the usual suspects." (Those being the Clippers, Warriors, Spurs and Cavs). In fact, this team holds a win over the Cavaliers, in Cleveland no less. They come into tonight off B2B losses though, falling on the road to Charlotte (by four) and the Knicks (early Sunday start). The team did drop B2B games once before ... and promptly responded by blowing out a good Houston team here at home immediately after. Therefore, I don't see them having trouble w/ the Pelicans. Considering New Orleans was a seven-point dog at Orlando last week, this price looks like a real bargain by comparison. Lay the points.

Since opening 0-8 SU, New Orleans has won four of its last six games. But this team is still "Anthony Davis and little else." Now the return of PG Jrue Holliday has been big as they are 2-0 SU since his return (was tending to his ill wife). Yes, the Pelicans just beat the same Charlotte team that handed Atlanta a loss. But there's a few things that should be pointed out there. One is that the Pellies got them at home in the second night of a back to back (Hornets had just beaten Atlanta the previous night). It was an overtime game as well where NO had to rally from an 11-pt deficit heading into the 4Q. When the Hawks lost to the Hornets the previous night, Dwight Howard was ejected in the 4Q. 

Dennis Schroeder flat out stunk Sunday in New York, going 0 for 8 from the field. Improvement is a guarantee tonight. Also, the Hawks will welcome key reserve Thabo Sefolosha back to the lineup tonight (missed L3 games). It is important to note that Atlanta is now #1 in the league in defensive efficiency (.96 points per possession) and will be facing a New Orleans offense which ranks 25th. Despite the cities close proximity, this is the first meeting in over a year between these two teams. Atlanta swept last year and was a 13-pt favorite when they hosted. They are 6-1 ATS at home so far this year while New Orleans is 12-26 ATS off its L38 SU dog victories. 10* Atlanta

8* Under Warriors/Pacers (7:05 ET): Golden State comes off its seventh straight victory Saturday night, but failed to cover at Milwaukee, winning 124-121 as nine-point favorites. Shockingly, it was the third time in the past four games that they'd allowed 120 or more points and not one of those games went past regulation. Meanwhile, Indiana is off an overtime affair, as they won in Oklahoma City last night 115-111. It was their fourth OT game already this season. The score at the end of regulation was 103-103, so Over bettors needed the extra five minutes there. With the Pacers coming in as big underdogs tonight, that luxury probably cannot be relied upon and with a huge O/U line, I'm going Under in this one.

Both teams are used to seeing high totals this year. The average O/U line for a Golden State game this year has been 222 and the Over is still 8-5. For Indiana, the average O/U line has been 211.5 and the Over is 8-6, but half of those Overs have come in games that went to OT. These teams met twice last year and the Over hit both times, but the number is now a few points higher tonight. That's despite the fact Indiana will be short-handed this evening. Both Paul George and CJ Miles will again be MIA and while the team was able to win in OKC w/o them last night, I don't see Jeff Teague going for 30 pts again here. By the way, the Under is 10-2 for Golden State when they're a road favorite of -12.5 or higher.

As expected, Golden State has had no problems on the offensive end of the floor where they are #1 in efficiency, points per game and field goal percentage. Kevin Durant has scored 30+ five different times this season and he, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are all averaging at least 20 PPG for the season. But this team has been really good defensively each of the L2 years and I'd be a little concerned about the regression we've seen thus far at that end of the court. That said, I don't see Indiana shooting as well as Milwaukee did Saturday night and I can point to the fact the Warriors just held Boston to only 88 pts on Friday as a sign they can still get it done defensively. 8* Under Warriors/Pacers

8* Ohio State (7:00 ET): The Buckeyes are 3-0 SU, but have yet to cover the spread a single time (0-3 ATS). Wins over Navy, NC Central and Providence have all been by 10 pts or less. Therefore, on the surface, it may not seem like a good idea to lay this monster number tonight as Western Carolina pays a visit. But the Catamounts are prime material to get routed seeing as they've already fallen by more than this spread twice this season and this will be their second road game in three days. The first resulted in a 35-point loss at Marshall (were +16 there). They've also lost at Miami FL by 49, in the season opener (were +22.5 there). Lay the points.

This game is a part of the non-bracketed, Global Sports Invitational. The two sides have already played one common opponent, that being NC Central. While the Buckeyes certainly could have been a lot more impressive against the Eagles, they still won 69-63 here in Columbus, last Monday (were -24). Meanwhile, Western Carolina lost to them at home, 67-59, in a non-lined affair. "I didn't like a whole lot of what I saw tonight," Ohio State coach Thad Matta said in reference to his team's win over NC Central. Matta would go on to say, "We weren't physically and mentally very tough. Obviously, we have to get that corrected." Fortunately for Matta, his team looked a lot better in Thursday's 72-67 win over Providence, though the MOV was no greater. But OSU did dominate in terms of shooting the basketball, 50 percent to 35.4.

Western Carolina scored only 59 pts against NC Central and has been even more inept offensively on the road, scoring just 53 PPG in road losses to Miami and Marshall. Even worse, they've shot below 30 percent in those two losses. I just don't see the issues being corrected here. The Buckeyes have been one of the more dominant home teams in the country under Matta, posting the most home wins of any D-I team at home since 2007-08 w/ 124. JaQuan Lyle had a monster game vs. Providence, registering 21 pts, eight rebounds and seven assists. 8* Ohio State

10* Georgia (7:00 ET): This game takes place in Kansas City, Missouri and is a semifinal matchup in the CBE Hall of Fame Classic. After losing the season opener, 74-64 at Clemson, the Bulldogs have bounced back to post B2B victories in this event, beating UNC-Asheville and Furman. While both games were closer than the 'Dawgs would have liked, I'm still impressed enough by what I saw. Remember that this is a program that has won 20+ games each of the L3 seasons under HC Mark Fox. As for George Washington, they arrive in KC at 3-0 SU, but were hardly impressive in narrow wins over MD-Eastern Shore or Siena (both decided by four points or less). In their last game, the Colonials were fortunate that Ark Pine Bluff shot a woeful 26.7% from the floor (GW was at 35.6%).

It was a different kind of game last time out for UGA as they had to deal w/ Furman shooting the ball at a 50% clip on Thursday. What kept the Paladins in the game was a 10 of 21 mark from three-point range (UGA was just 5 of 18). But while the 'Dawgs may have struggled from distance, they dominated on the interior, going 23 of 35 on two-point attempts. Yante Maten and JJ Frazier again carried the scoring load w/ a combined 55 points. Over the L3 seasons, this team is 9-4 ATS coming off a game where it scored 80+ points. Also of interest is they don't get upset much; their SU record when priced as the favorite is an impressive 31-6 SU.

George Washington won the NIT last year, but has far less experience on this year's squad w/ eight underclassmen suiting up. Contrast that w/ Georgia, who figures to be a threat in the better SEC. Again, GW struggled to get by MD-Eastern Shore in its opener (despite a massive +20 edge in attempts at the FT line) and then was back and forth virtually the whole way w/ Siena at home last Tuesday. The Colonials won't have the same edges on the interior here as they did against the Saints, nor will Georgia shoot the ball as poorly as Arkansas Pine Bluff did on Thursday. Neither team has shot the ball particularly well from three-point range, but I'll point to the fact that Georgia has more overall talent and GW is just 2-8 ATS its L10 games vs. the SEC. 10* Georgia

8* Long Beach State (10:00 ET): UCLA is 3-0 and played three home games against overmatched foes. Not surprisingly, Pacific, CS-Northridge and San Diego all fell by the wayside by double digit margins. Tonight, they host a Long Beach State team whose record is unfair as they've certainly been unafraid to step up and take on strong competition. That's been the hallmark under Dan Monson, but this year has taken things to a whole new level. The 49ers have played Wichita State, North Carolina and Louisville in the L3 games and due to some uncharacteristically poor shooting, all three went really poorly. But I look for a bounce back here and I'm taking the points.

Playing a fourth straight top foe on the road and third ranked opponent in less than five days seems like a really tough spot. But Monson should have his team ready. They've shot just 31.2%, 36.4% and 29.5% those L3 games and I cannot state enough how they're almost certain to top those percentages tonight. UCLA is allowed 80 and 87 pts its first two games. Also, bad defense has hurt the 49ers. Both Wichita State and North Carolina shot better than 55% against them. Again, those numbers are a virtual lock to come down. This perennial Big West power is better than its shown thus far and is due for a competitive game. They've played UCLA tough each of the last two years, losing by only 7 and 14 pts.

While UCLA is getting at least 14 PPG from five different players, they will not be able to keep that up. Four players on the roster are dealing w/ injuries right now. It should be pointed out that they failed to cover against both CS-Northridge and San Diego. In games with high totals such as this, these teams have experienced very different results. If the total is 160 to 169.5, UCLA is 0-8 ATS the L3 seasons. Meanwhile, LBSU is 11-2 ATS L13, 5-0 if away from home. They are also 10-4 ATS after allowing 80+ points the previous game. This is a bounce back spot for the underdog and a great spot to fade an overvalued favorite. 8* Long Beach State

8* Utah (9:05 ET): Both of these Northwest Division teams are pretty banged up right now. Utah, a popular pick to break through into the upper echelon of the Western Conference this year, started in kind at 6-2 straight up. They are now 7-7 SU. They've lost three straight, the first two as favorites. But then yday, even getting 6.5, they could not cover in what ended up being a 111-102 loss to Houston. But I thought there was some positive takeaways. Other than Gordon Hayward, the other four Jazz starters had a combined seven years of NBA experience. Yet the team actually shot better than 50% from the floor. Really, the box score shows an even matchup except for the 14-5 disadvantage Utah faced in turnovers.

Denver has covered its last three games. But they have just one SU win in their last six. They come in off a OT loss here at home to Toronto, 113-111. After falling behind early (trailed by 10 after 1Q), the Nuggets rallied to take a five point lead by halftime. From there, it was a close game throughout. But even though the Raptors shot only 61% from the FT line and 45.7% from the floor, Denver could not get the job done. Part of the problem is that they were a horrendous 4 of 25 from three-point range. Another issue is that they are really thin in the backcourt right now. Both Gary Harris and Will Barton are out and HC Michael Malone has been tinkering w/ his starting lineup. This team's only SU win over the L6 games came at Phoenix's expense.

Denver is just 1-4 SU at home this year. I believe Utah is being undervalued here due to the back to back situation. Note Saturday's game was played a little earlier than normal, so this B2B may not be as tough as some others. By the way, the Jazz are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS playing in the second game of a back to back this year! They are also 5-1 ATS playing against a team w/ a losing record. In terms of efficiency, there is no denying which team has been better and even the Nuggets' home court edge shouldn't make them a favorite here. Utah is allowing only 94.4 PPG so far (#1 in the league!) while Denver is allowing 108.3 (bottom 7). The Jazz are 6-2 SU and ATS the L8 head to head meetings including a 4-0 SU sweep LY. 8* Utah

10* Ole Miss (6:00 ET): Going against St. Joe's didn't prove to be fruitful on Friday afternoon, but I'm going back to the well here on Sunday. The Hawks covered more games (24) than any other team in the country last year, but have lost a lot of talent since then. There's also the simple "law of averages" at play here, which says they simply won't be as profitable here in 2016-17. But after failing to cover the season opener (won by 1 over Toledo), I give them credit for posting double digit wins over Columbia and Loyola Chicago. But now it's time for what is clearly the stiffest test yet, that being a date w/ fellow 3-0 team Ole Miss. I like the Rebels to come through Sunday evening in the Virgin Islands.

While Mississippi is 3-0 SU, they are also 0-3 ATS. All three wins thus far have been by seven points or less. That largest MOV of 7 pts also happened to come in an overtime game, their last time out, against Oral Roberts. So because of all the close calls, we're now getting a better than expected value. Note that the Rebels still average 90.3 points per game! Obviously then, you'd like to see them tighten the defense up. But when you have Miami (FL) transfer DeAndre Burnett pouring in 41 pts (like he did vs. Oral Roberts, who needs defense? Also, it's not like Andy Kennedy's team is playing that bad of defense, they just play at a fast pace. No opponent has shot better than 47.7%, at least overall.  Oral Roberts was able to stay in the game by shooting a somewhat ridiculous 11 of 19 from the three-point line and 15 of 16 from the FT line. 

St. Joe's shot 55.2% against Columbia, but other than that they haven't been so hot from the floor. They really benefited from Loyola only getting to the free throw line 12 times on Friday and missing 21 of 27 three-point attempts. Their two best players from last year - DeAndre Bembry and Isaiah Miles - both departed. One returning player (Pierfrancesco Oliva) is already out for the year and another - James Demery - is dealing with a foot injury and will be out 2-3 weeks. I'm not coming off what I said two days ago and that's St. Joe's is fade material right now. 10* Ole Miss

8* CS Northridge (11:00 ET): Both Northern Illinois and CS-Northridge have played three games. The former is 3-0 while the latter is 1-2. But as is so often the case, records can be misleading. Northern Illinois has yet to leave DeKalb and has played three very weak opponents (Indiana St, Roosevelt, Idaho). Meanwhile, CS-Northridge comes off road dates vs. UCLA and Stanford, neither of which you'd expect them to win (were double digit dogs both times out). Here though, the Matadors are a slight favorite at home and I think a great value. NIU hasn't shot well in either of its two wins over D-I teams. This is also a revenge spot for CSN. Lay the points. 

Last year, in DeKalb, Northern Illinois beat CS Northridge 83-71 as 9.5-pt dogs. We touched on NIU's relatively poor shooting this year, but let's revisit the shooting numbers from this matchup last year, shall we? The Mastadons actually outshot the Huskies from the floor (47.3% to 44.4%), but three-pointers were huge as were free throws for the eventual winner. NIU was 11-24 from behind the arc while CSN was 4-12. Meanwhile, from the charity stripe, CSN actually missed more than they made and they had 31 attempts. Talk about a lot of missed opportunities in a game lost by single digits. For the record, NIU was 24 of 34 on its free throw attempts.

True road games have seen Northern Illinois go just 7-21 SU the previous two seasons (2-8 ATS L10). They are also 9-23 SU as an underdog the L2 years. The 14-point win over Idaho on Wednesday was a bit misleading in the sense that the game was tied at halftime and the Vandals shot only 32% from the floor. Also, NIU had a massive 25-9 edge at the free throw line. This is a good spot for the host Matadors to get back on track. 8* CS Northridge

full analysis soon

8* Loyola Chicago (12:30 ET): I'm looking to go against St. Joe's here simply because the Hawks owe the books some money. What do I mean by that? Well, last year saw them finish w/ one of the best ATS records in the country (24-11). In fact, no team covered MORE games. Earlier this week, recall we faded another team that was quite profitable last year (IPFW) and they were blown out. Here we can grab points at a neutral location (Virgin Islands) w/ a team that has already won three times this year. That would be Loyola Chicago, who has predictably dominated three overmatched foes by an average of 37.4 points per game. Meanwhile, St. Joe's was lucky to escape Toledo in the opener before a hot shooting night enabled them to get by Columbia.

There hasn't been a game yet where Loyola has failed to shoot better than 50% from the floor while holding the opponent under 37%. Of course, Alcorn State, Indiana-Northwest and Eurkea is a real "rogue's gallery."  But dominating those teams is what was expected from the Ramblers and exactly what they delivered. In the past, this team has taken advantage of getting the points as in a 22-12 ATS record the L2 seasons as an underdog. While picked to finish near the bottom of the Missouri Valley, this is already the best start for the program since '97.  The three big wins have given this team some confidence. Remember they nearly upset Wichita State in the MWC Tourney last year. Milton Doyle (16.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG) is a great player and a couple of key transfers have made this roster much better than we've seen in past years.

As for St. Joe's, they are by no means as strong as last year's 28-8 SU squad. Their two best players - DeAndre Bembry and Isaiah Miles - both departed. One returning player (Pierfrancesco Oliva) is already out for the year and another - James Demery - is dealing with a foot injury and listed as questionable here. We saw the Hawks struggle in the opener - at home - against Toledo. That was a game they trailed most of the first half and never led by more than four points. They won't shoot as well here in the Virgin Islands as they did vs. Columbia. 8* Loyola Chicago

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Though they let me down in the last game, I'm coming back with the T'wolves here. Despite a poor 3-7 SU/ATS record, they have actually outscored opponents this season by 1.8 PPG. Only ten teams have a better point differential. They rank third in the league in offensive efficiency, behind only Golden State and Toronto. How is it that they have all these impressive stats, but an unimpressive record? Well, the "issue" is that all three of their wins have been lopsided blowouts. Those wins came at the expense of Memphis, Orlando and the Lakers, two of them here at home. Here, the opponent can't be any worse as it's Philadelphia and this is a rare spot to actually fade the 76ers off a win! Lay the points.

When I first checked the score Tuesday night, I was happy w/ what I saw. Minnesota led a tough Charlotte team by double digits at the break (were +2) and seemed well on their way to snapping an 0-14 SU skid when off a double digit win (they had blown out the Lakers by 26 Sunday night, my 10* Game of the Week). Unfortunately, what followed was a dreadful third quarter that saw them get outscored 36-17. This was not the first time the T'wolves have blown a double digit lead this season. In fact, it was the sixth time! In eight of the team's 10 games this year, they have led by double digits at some point in the first half. The third quarter has been a killer all year long and defensively the team needs work (28th in efficiency). Fortunately for tonight, they face the worst offensive team in the sport. 

Philadelphia averages a woeful .947 points per possession, last in the league. Only four other teams are under 1.00 PPP. Per 100 possessions, the Sixers are being outscored by 12 points, which is also (easily) the worst mark in the league. They did beat Washington last night, 109-102, as seven-point dogs. But frankly, the Wizards aren't very good. Note this is a virtually identical setup to the last time Philly was off a win. After upsetting Indiana at home, they had to go on the road the following night and w/o rest got blown out by Atlanta, 117-96. They've failed to cover both game this year when unrested, losing by an average of 17.5 PPG. 10* Minnesota

10* Elon (7:00 ET): This line has skyrocketed, but may have reached it apex. Regardless, I would bet ASAP. To the casual observer, this seems like a curious game to experience such a significant line move. However, USF is still w/o Jahmal McMurray, who is expected to be suspended for the first six games of the year for an "undisclosed violation." This is a significant loss for the Bulls. McMurray was their top returning scorer from a year ago (15.2 PPG). At times, he was the only reliable offensive option for a team that would finish 8-25 SU overall. An 84-73 win over non-lined Florida A&M does little to dissuade me that USF is going to be in a lot of trouble w/o their best player. Lay the points here.

Elon College, who comes by way of the Colonial, and is off a wild 100-95 loss to Charlotte Monday where they were 4.5-pt home favorites. No the game did not into overtime. While overall shooting was actually in favor of the Phoenix, what ultimately undid them was the three-point line. Charlotte shot a preposterous 10 of 14 from three-point range. Elon took nearly twice as many three-point shots (26), but made one less. I can't stress enough how rare it is to see a team go 10 of 14 from three-point range. South Florida certainly won't, that's for sure. Furthermore, the FT line hurt Elon on Monday as well. They were only 18 of 26 from the charity stripe while Charlotte went 22 of 26. Considering they scored 100 pts in their season opener (vs. lightly regarded William Peace), I don't think the Phoenix will have much trouble scoring here. 

These schools have never met before. Look for Elon's Steven Santa Ana to be the difference maker here. He went for 32 points in the last game and made five three-pointers. As far as the price range goes, Elon is 10-3 ATS as a road fave of 3.5 to 6 points, including 2-0 the L3 seasons. USF is 6-18 ATS as a home dog in that same range, including 0-4 the L3 seasons. Bottom line is that the oddsmakers made this line way too low and will pay for it. 10* Elon

10* Over Spurs/Kings (10:35 ET): With the Warriors naturally receiving so much attention and the Clippers off to an incredible start, some will want to make the case that the Spurs are "down" right now. How soon we forget that this team thrashed the Warriors, in Golden State, on Opening Night! Including that 129-100 win, Greg Popovich's team is 5-0 SU and ATS on the road, so I wouldn't be panicking too much about the fact they have two losses at home. Defensively, this was the top team in the league last year (easily), but this year has seen them drop to sixth in efficiency. Offensively, they rank in the top 10. While the Under is 4-0 their past four games, I'm on the Over here as they face an opponent known for its lack of defense. 

Sacramento has not played since losing 122-120 in overtime at Portland Friday night. I'm proud to say I was on the Over in that game. The game-tying bucket by the Kings at the end of regulation ensured I would have a winning ticket. There's been only three games this season where the Kings have not given up 100+ pts in regulation. Two of those were against Phoenix and New Orleans, both of whom are among the worst teams in the league. Under Dave Joeger, there has been a concerted effort to slow down the pace, which is a bit concerning given how the Spurs also play at a slow pace, but the bottom line here is that the total is simply way too low. There have been just a dozen or so Kings' home games the L3 seasons where the total has been less than 200 pts.

The Under is 4-0 the last four times these teams have played. Earlier this year, these teams matched up here in Sacramento and it ended up being 102-94 in favor of San Antonio. But the total there was 203, which is significantly higher than tonight's O/U line. Neither team shot particularly well on Oct 27, most notably Sacramento as they were just 40% from the field and 6 of 20 from three-point range. San Antonio was coming off the big win over Golden State there. I'll call for this to be the Spurs' best offensive game since the season opener and the Kings should score enough to do their part. 10* Over Spurs/Kings

8* Illinois State (7:00 ET): Unless you're a real college basketball die-hard (like me!), then you are probably unaware that IPFW was one of the best ATS teams in the nation last year. The Mastadons were an impressive 21-8 at the betting window, the best such record for any team that played more than seven lined games. True to form, they covered in this year's season opener at Arkansas. As 15-pt road underdogs, they lost 92-83. They've since played another game, which was not lined, and beat Kenyon College 117-60. That's a meaningless result. Tonight, they visit Normal, IL and I feel the result will be "anything but normal" for IPFW, at least as far as the pointspread is concerned as the number is way too small. Lay the points.

Illinois State dropped its season opener, as a two-point road favorite at Murray State. It was a back and forth game throughout w/ things not decided until a GW three-pointer was made w/ 1.5 seconds remaining. Note that the biggest lead in the game - eight points - was held by ISU. The Redbirds also led by seven w/ 3:23 remaining. So it was a tough loss. A big problem is that while they shot at roughly the same percentage as Murray State from three-point range, the Racers made twice as many. That's an 18-point edge right there, which is tough to overcome on the road. Murray State is also a good team, certainly better than IPFW. It speaks volumes that ISU was favored on the road against them. 

IPFW will not shoot better than 60% again like they did vs. Kenyon. Note they shot just 36.2% against Arkansas. Illinois State is 24-8 SU its L32 home games. They have also won 28 of the last 37 times (straight up) they have been favored. With the number so short here, I like the Redbirds to win and cover. 8* Illinois State

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): I'm bucking some pretty serious history w/ this play. Over the past three seasons, the T'wolves are 0-14 straight up (3-11 ATS) when coming off a double digit win. That includes an 0-2 SU/ATS mark already this season. But, despite what you've just read, I'll be taking them at home tonight against Charlotte. This is a much better Minnesota than in years' past and while they are only 3-6 SU so far, their three double digit wins have resulted in a positive point differential for the season (+4.0 per 100 possessions). They are #2 in offensive efficiency, trailing only annual leader Golden State. Charlotte has been impressive in its own right so far, but I expect them to start coming back down to Earth. Take the points.

While their three wins have come by a total of 78 points, the T'wolves' six losses have been by a total of only 53 points. Two of the losses were to OKC and the Clippers. The other four were all single digit defeats, three of them by four points or less. Typically, and this goes for all sports, point differential and the ability to win by large margins are better predictors of future success (or lack of it) than a team's actual record. In the case of Minnesota, I like what I've seen and right now would consider them to be the leading contender to nab the 8-seed in the Western Conference. My *10* Game of the Week Sunday was on them as they destroyed the Lakers 125-99, paced by a career-high 47 points from Andrew Wiggins. I actually like Karl-Anthony Towns even more, so there's a real solid foundation for 1st year HC Tom Thibodeau.

This is a tough spot for Charlotte following B2B close losses to Toronto and Cleveland. Expect this team to still finish in the top 4-5 of the Eastern Conference as their strong second half LY went largely unnoticed. But, as I just said, I just don't like the spot. Yes, they are 5-1 ATS laying points thus far and surprisingly that includes three road games. But this is only the Hornets' fifth road game overall and the previous three teams they were favored against - Milwaukee, Miami and Brooklyn - should all be considered inferior to this opponent. Jeremy Lamb is still out for the visitors as well. 8* Minnesota

8* LSU (8:00 ET): This will be my second time going w/ LSU in this young season. Given my record, you should already have concluded that the first went well. It did as they beat up on Wofford, 91-69 as only a seven-point choice. Now, they face another team off a high scoring Opening Night win, that being Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles come off a 101-96 victory, but that was with double overtime and against a team named "Tougaloo," a NAIA school. Win or not, that result is certainly not a good sign when stepping up in class from a NAIA opponent to one from the SEC. Meanwhile, this is probably a DROP in class for LSU. Lay the points.

Little defense was played in that USM-Tougaloo matchup. How do I know? Well, look no further than the box score which reveals that the Golden Eagles shot 56.7% from the floor, including 7 of 14 from three-point range. I don't see a duplication of those numbers tonight, in fact, I see a massive dropoff. Unfortunately, that coincides with a worrisome USM defense which permitted a NAIA school to shoot better than 50% - on the road. Speaking of the road, it has not been kind to USM in recent years, particularly in this price game. The team is just 3-25 SU in true road games the L3 seasons not to mention 0 for its last 42 as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points.

LSU, on the other hand, is 26-7 SU its L33 home games including nine straight victories as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. They are 47-2 L49 at -12.5 or higher in Baton Rouge. Two years ago, they downed Southern Miss by 20 here (were 17-point favorites). Just to rehash from my analysis Friday: though it is by no means "addition by subtraction," I think this team will be better off this year w/o Ben Simmons, who often struggled to integrate himself into the flow of the offense. Another positive in that the Tigers won't be consistently overvalued. Remember, at one point last season, they were 9-3 SU in SEC play!  8* LSU

10* LaSalle (7:00 ET): Similar to yday's play on Nevada, we will use fairly "worthless" results to our advantage in handicapping this game. Delaware is 2-0 SU, but one of those wins came at the expense of something called "Goldey-Beacom." The Blue Hens did, and I give them credit here, upset Bradley their last time out as eight-point underdogs. Yet they're even more significant dogs for tonight's trip to Philly as they take on LaSalle. This despite the host Explorers being off an outright loss (were -2.5) at cross-town rival Temple Friday. That was an overtime game for the record. Given Temple just lost last night at home to New Hampshire, one might seek to conclude that this seems like a "real steal" to take the points. But the oddsmakers clearly aren't buying it and nor am I.

Had the results discussed above not unfolded they way they did, one has to wonder what this line would have been. I think LaSalle should be commended for still getting to 92 points despite shooting only 42.3% against Temple, including 9 of 28 from three-point range. I think that it's more than reasonable to expect the Explorers to shoot better tonight in their own gym. Yes, overtime aided them in getting to 92 points, but scoring 81 in regulation is "nothing to sneeze at." This is a relatively deep team now, with two freshman starting. Ten different players saw action Friday and all of them have started at one point or another in their careers.

Though they're 2-0, I see Delaware really struggling to keep pace in this one. They've scored just 64 and 63 points in their two wins and beat a D-II school by just eight points. They've shot no better than LaSalle to this point and have actually been worse from three-point range (27.6%). So you can see that one team obviously plays at a much faster pace. A key to the Blue Hens success so far has been atrocious shooting from their opponents. Both Goldey-Beacom and Bradley shot 32% from the field. Sure, the Delaware defense needs to be credited there, but only to a point. LaSalle will shoot better, play faster and is simply the Blue Hens' most talented opponent yet. I expect a blowout here, so lay the points. 10* LaSalle