8* Over Nets/Clippers (10:35 ET): Let's take a moment to "tip our cap" to this start to the season the Clippers are having. Through 10 games, they are 9-1 SU and outscoring foes by an almost otherworldly 14.8 pts per 100 possessions. To put that number into some perspective, the Warriors finished +11.6 pts per 100 possessions in LY's record-breaking 73-9 SU finish. Granted, it's still a relatively small sample size thus far for LA, but clearly they are in a "good place" right now. Particularly on the defensive end where they are only allowing .927 points per possession. Again, to put the number into some perspective, San Antonio led the league LY by allowing only .966 pts per possession. Only one other team (Atlanta) allowed fewer than one point per possession last season.

That all being said, I think that it's safe to say the Clips won't be able to maintain their current pace, particularly at the defensive end. Right now, they are only giving up an average of 84.0 PPG at home, which I have to believe would be a NBA record. For the year, teams are barely shooting 40% from the floor against them. We have already started to see a bit of regressions as their last two opponents - Oklahoma City & Minnesota - both topped 100 points. Granted, those were road games, but still my points stands. They're going to start giving up more points - both per possession and per game - moving forward. Offensively, I think they are just fine. An average of 107 PPG is impressive, but by no means unsustainable.

A key here w/ tonight's opponent, which is Brooklyn, is that they are currently playing at the second fastest pace in the league, trailing only Phoenix. The Nets have been suprisingly competitive this year and are right behind the Clips at the betting window w/ a 7-2 ATS mark (LA is 8-2). But they still give up 107.6 PPG (22nd in league) while scoring 106.3 PPG themselves. On the road, those numbers get even higher to 111.5 and 110.7 respectively. To give you an idea about the effect their pace of play is having, last time out they faced Phoenix, who shot only 37.4% but still scored 104 points. The Nets also turn the ball over a lot (17.1 per game) and that should lead to a lot of additional scoring opportunities for LA here.  Take the Over. 8* Over Nets/Clippers

8* Nevada (10:00 ET): Both teams here already have a game played under their respective belts. Given the pointspread for tonight's matchup, you might be surprised to learn how those first games each went. Then again, considering Loyola Marymount's opponent was something named "Vanguard University" (NAIA school), I think it goes w/o saying that a win there was all but assured. But just to show how little that result meant, the Lions are still sizable underdogs to Nevada here despite the Wolfpack taking it on the chin in their opener (at St. Mary's). We'll use these results to our advantage here as I believe the home team to be significantly undervalued as a result. Lay the points.

There are some wild shooting numbers to report on from each team's game on Friday. LMU saw Vanguard University shoot a preposterously low 23.2% from the floor (16-69) including 1 of 18 from three-point range. Those Lions (also Vanguard's nickname) had no "roar" whatsoever as they shot an unconscionable 5 of 35 after halftime and finished w/ only 17 pts in the second half! Needless to say, when LMU jumped out to a 20-2 lead, the game was basically over. But let's not make any conclusions that LMU is significantly better than we thought because of that result, which was a glorified exhibition game. This team is being picked to finish near the bottom of the West Coast Conference and is outside the Top 200 in most reputable power rankings systems.

Nevada ran into one of the top WCC teams Friday night, that being St. Mary's, who shot 60 percent from the floor en route to an 81-63 victory. I don't know what it is about the Gaels and early season home games, but they always seem to shoot ridiculously well in them. Keep in mind that St. Mary's opened the year ranked #17 in the country, so this is a massive drop in class for the Wolfpack. I have seen this team projected for as high as a third place finish in the Mountain West this year. Loyola Marymount was very bad defensively last year (allowed 74.8 PPG) and beat only ONE top 150 RPI team all year, that being Pepperdine in double OT.  Home team rolls in this one. 8* Nevada

10* Minnesota (7:05 ET): The T'wolves let me down last night, losing to the Clippers 119-105. While there's no shame in losing to the best team in the league right now, I had thought Minny could at least take advantage of a generous spread at home w/ LA coming in off a hard fought victory (at OKC) the night before. The problem was they fell behind early and could never really recover. That's a rarity as the T'wolves entered last night as the highest scoring first quarter team in the league. They've blown multiple double digit leads already and I feel they're far better than the 2-6 SU record as they are still own a positive point differential for the season!

Meanwhile, it's probably about that time to start fading the Lakers. They've won five of six, including a 126-99 beatdown of New Orleans last night, on the road no less. For those struggling to explain the Lakers' surprising succes this year, it's actually pretty easy. They removed the biggest ballhog in league history from their lineup (you know who) and the offense has improved dramatically. But that offense still hasn't been as efficient as Minnesota's has been. I take a look at this line and can't help but feel its decreased far too much from what it would have been just a few days ago. I give the Lakers credit, but they are clearly playing "above themselves right now" and it's only a matter of time before they begin to regress, in my view.

Playing in the second game of a back to back has not been kind to the Lakers in the past; they are just 5-30 SU in that spot the L3 seasons! Yes, they did beat Atlanta earlier in the year w/o rest. Double digits wins like last night have been rare for this team in recent years and they are just 3-9 SU/4-8 ATS off a DD win of any kind the L3 seasons. Last night saw the team shoot better than 55% from the floor (!) and that can't possibly carry over to tonight's game. If anything, LA is due for an off-shooting night. Again, in terms of efficiency, the T'wolves have been the better offensive team this year. To sum it all up, what we have here is one team that's been overperforming its expectations by a wide margin and another that's undeperforming. I look for a return to normalcy tonight. 10* Minnesota

8* Rice (2:00 ET): This little school in Dallas, TX was quite kind to me on Saturday as the football team (had just 1 game all season) went to Charlotte as 10.5-pt underdogs and won outright, a ~SIGNATURE~ 10* ULTIMATE POWER release! Now, I'll look to back the school's basketball program as they look to erase the memory of a bankroll busting campaign last season. The Owls finished 2015-16 at 7-18-2 ATS, which was the worst pointspread record in the country of any team that played at least 10 games. But they were only outscored by an average of 4.7 PPG. I'll make the case that it will be a nice little bounce back season for Mike Rhoades' team. Take the points.

James Madison is the opponent for Rice on Sunday and the Dukes have already played a game. They lost it, 62-55, at Old Dominion. JMU did not shoot the ball well from any range, going just 39.6% overall, including 6 for 30 from three-point range. They also didn't help themselves the few times they got to the free throw line, going only 7 of 13 there. JMU actually led (by one) at the half, but allowed the first basket of the second half and trailed the rest of the way. Looking at the preseason CAA projections, the Dukes are a team expected to finish in the middle of the pack and remember that league isn't as strong as it once was. You may recall they went 21-11 SU a year ago, good for third in the league. But they were one and done in the conference tournament. Playing for a second time in three days, though it's early in the season, I don't think does this team any favors.

Like JMU, Rice returns four starters from LY. Most notable is Marcus Evans, who led all freshman last year by averaging 21.4 points per game! Evans will be the best player on the floor Sunday afternoon. Not much is expected from the Owls this year (picked for 9th in C-USA), but I think they will exceed those low expectations. The problem for them last season was on the defensive end as they gave up 80.5 PPG, one of the worst marks in the entire country. There's just no way they don't see a decrease in that average. As we saw in their opener, JMU isn't a strong offensive team and they're just 13-27-1 ATS L41 home games. 8* Rice

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Interestingly enough, my own personal power rankings indicate that the Clippers should be favored by MORE in this contest. But two things need to be taken into account here. One is that the Clips are playing in the second game of a back to back. Often times, we find teams undervalued in this role, but note here as they will have been favored (on the road) both times. Secondly, as good as LA has been to this point of the season (8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS), it is highly doubtful that they'll be able to maintain their current pace where they've been outscoring opponents by an incredible 14.9 points per 100 possessions! Off the tough game last night at OKC, the Clips are ripe to be upset. Take the points.

Minnesota might be 2-5 SU, but they are better than their record. Believe it or not, they are outscoring their opponents by almost four points per 100 possessions. They are 4th in offensive efficiency. Both of their wins have been blowouts. The last one, three nights ago, saw them go to Orlando and prevail 123-107 as 2.5-point pups. In retrospect, that was an awful line. Three of the T'wolves losses this year have been by four points or less and they blew double digits leads in all of them. There is a chance PG Ricky Rubio could return tonight, which would be a big boost. Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Wiggins form a strong young core. I do believe that 1st year HC Tom Thibodeau will improve the defense. Right now, I'm leaning towards this team being the #8 seed in the Western Conference.

The Clips played their worst defensive game of the season last night against OKC, giving up 108 points. That may not seem that shocking to you, but consider that the Thunder rank in the bottom six in the league in offensive efficiency. To reiterate, Minnesota is fourth in that department. The Clips still are giving up only .92 points per possession. There is simply no way they will be able to maintain that average. The Clips have looked good in the back end of both back to backs this year, but eventually the roll has to slow down. It was a two-point game last night in OKC (won 110-108) and it was essentially close throughout. Can this resurgent LA bench really continue to be trusted? 10* Minnesota

8* LSU (2:00 ET): Last year, LSU was a massive bust at the betting window. Among teams that played more than seven lined games, they had one of the worst ATS records in the country at 11-20-1. That included a poor start to the year w/ an 0-5 (ATS) November. The issue was that they were overvalued because of Ben Simmons, who has now moved on to the NBA. Granted, the Tigers were not a bad team; they finished 19-14 SU and at one point were 9-3 SU in SEC play. But a bad finish, which culminated in an embarrassing 71-38 loss to Texas A&M in the conference tourney was "all she wrote." The team may not be better per se this year, but there is definitely more value in taking them at the window. Lay the points here.

Wofford, who we've seen in the NCAA Tournament before, also comes in off a down year. They went 15-17 SU overall and finished 4-10 SU in non-conference play. This year, the Terriers are projected to finish third (I've seen as low as fifth) in the Southern Conference where everyone is chasing incumbent Chattanooga. Last year's leading scorer, Spencer Collins, graduated and that leaves some big shoes to fill. This will a young team this year w/ as many as six freshman possibly being asked to contribute. We saw last night w/ our play against Harvard what relying on so many young players can look like this early in the season.

Call me crazy, but I think LSU may come together better than expected w/o Simmons. At times last year, it appeared as if the team did not understand how to utilize its superstar properly. Either they were too reliant, or didn't go to him nearly enough. I think that the coaching staff will have a real emphasis on starting the season strong consider the hole that was dug last year. Antonio Blakeney will be one of the top players in the SEC this year. Wofford is only 11-19 ATS in road games the last two seasons and as an underdog they are 7-13 SU/3-17 ATS. 8* LSU

8* Stanford (11:00 ET): The Cardinal have moved on from Johnny Dawkins. Last year's 15-15 SU (11-15-1 ATS) finish was the "straw that broke the camel's back." In steps former UAB head man Jerod Haase, who helped that program improve its win total each of the four years he was there. By no means is the cupboard bare here in Palo Alto for Haase. He'll inherit four returning starters from LY's team as well as 10 of the top 11 scorers. So there is no reason to believe this team won't improve here in 2016.

This game, it should be noted, takes place in China. Harvard has brought in a strong recruiting class and figures to be the favorite in the Ivy League under HC Tommy Amaker. However, the Crimson have largely been a bust when priced as the underdog. Over the last two seasons, they've won just 4 of 17 games in that role. The line is really short here, it should be pointed out. Stanford is 29-8 SU as a favorite the L3 seasons. Theyve also won 21 of the last 28 non-conference games.

Robert Cartwright is a name to pay attention to here. The Stanford PG missed all of last season due to a fractured right arm. Him handling the ball should be a big difference maker. Also, remember that this team won the NIT two years ago. It's not that they were a bad team last year; they simply undeperformed under Dawkins. I have them undervalued coming into this year and will gladly lay the points in this opener. 8* Stanford

10* Over Kings/Blazers (10:05 ET): Things started quite well for Sacramento last night at home vs. the Lakers. In a nationally televised contest, they jumped out to a 30-16 lead after the first quarter and wound up leading by as many as 19. But the wheels came off in the second half, particularly in the fourth quarter where they were outscored 31-18. Overall, it was a 56-36 edge for the Lakers in the second half. The game, it should be pointed out, came nowhere close to the total of 211 as the final score was 101-91, meaning the Under won by 20 points. However, I highly doubt we'll be getting another 36 point half from the Kings in this one, especially facing a Blazers squad, who started the year with five straight Overs. Take the Over here.

Portland was off yday, which was probably for the best, as they got clobbered 111-80 by the ridiculously hot Clippers Wednesday night. Again, like the Kings, we should clearly anticipate a rise in scoring from the Blazers here compared to the last game. They were an awful 35.2% from the floor vs. the Clips, including 6 of 30 (20%) from three-point range. It should be pointed out that the Clippers lead the league in defensive efficiency right now in almost other-worldly fashion. Sacramento ranks 23rd, which is actually two spots ahead of Portland. So, we have two offenses that would almost certainly bounce back, regardless of the opponent, but the bounce back here should be greater considering both are bottom eight in defensive efficiency.

As I said earlier, the Blazers' first five games all went Over the total. The Clippers' game marked the first time all year that they failed to score at least 100 points in a game. They are averaging 106.9 PPG overall, but allowing 110.8. Their home games, all four of which have gone Over, have seen a combined average of 228.2 PPG. In six of nine games, they've allowed at least 110 points this year. Sacramento, fresh off matching its lowest scoring output of the year, hasn't been quite as bad defensively, but the Over is 17-8 for them L3 seasons when off a SU loss as a favorite. All four meetings between these two stayed Under last year, but this total is now lower than any of those four matchups. 10* Over Kings/Blazers

10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): The Pelicans have yet to win a game. The only other team that can claim that dubious distinction is Philadelphia over in the Eastern Conference and that was probably to be expected. Though dealing with numerous absences, there's no excuse for the Pelicans, who have one of the best players in the league in Anthony Davis. Though the team is on the road tonight, I can see them breaking through for that elusive first win. Milwaukee is a team that surprises me in that they rate a lot higher than I expected in my own personal power rankings. But after three straight high scoring wins and covers (one at New Orleans' expense), they managed only 75 points in a dreadful overtime loss at Dallas Sunday.

When these teams met back on November 1st, it was a high scoring affair w/ the Bucks coming from behind to win 117-113 as 3.5-pt dogs. Despite a 35-point effort from Davis, the Pelicans were outscored in the pain and outrebounded somewhat significantly as the Bucks got a variety of stunning contributions. Greg Monroe, coming off the bench, even grabbed 11 rebounds. Another problem for New Orleans was that they finished the game by missing 18 of their final 22 three-point attempts. I do not expect these kind of numbers to appear in the box score in tonight's game. What I do expect is another standout performance from Davis, who averages 30.9 PPG and also is among the league leaders in rebounds, steals and blocks.

The Bucks just lost to another team that was winless, Dallas, on Sunday. That was with the Mavs missing two starters as well, so there's hope for New Orleans yet. Milwaukee was just dreadful on on the offensive end in the loss, scoring only 48 points after the first quarter! My god. They were outscored 12-1 in the OT period and 27 turnovers for the game certainly didn't help. Losing a game when your opponent shoots 9 of 38 from three-point range is not a good sign at all. This is also just the third time this year that the Bucks will have been favored. They are 1-1 ATS thus far, failing to cover as eight-point chalk over Brooklyn. The Pelicans are still 58-46 ATS as a dog the L3 seasons. 10* New Orleans

10* Over Bulls/Hawks (7:35 ET): Atlanta is off a huge win here as they went to Cleveland last night and handed the Cavs their first loss of the season. Therefore, it's fair to question what they'll have left in the tank for this second of back to back games, at home against the Bulls. It has been a really impressive start to the season for the Hawks though, as they are 5-2 SU w/ the best point differential in the Eastern Conference (+9.6 PPG). They rank #7 in offensive efficiency and #4 in defensive efficiency. It's the latter I'd be more concerned about them maintaining here as Chicago comes in averaging more than 1.1 points per possession, third best in the league. They did just allow 106 pts to the #2 team in offensive efficiency (Cavs) last night. Take the Over here.

Save for a 111-94 loss to Indiana on Saturday, the Bulls have hit 100+ points in every game this year. Save for the last one, a 112-80 beatdown of the Magic, every total has been higher than this one. The 112 pts scored against Orlando was not a season-high, but rather pretty "par for the course." The Bulls come in averaging 107.3 PPG thus far, a big reason why they are off to a winning start. Of course, they also lost three in a row at one point due to giving up an average of just under 112 PPG. It's a little bit surprising that only two Chicago games thus far have gone Over the total. By the way, the Over is 13-9 in Bulls' road games the L3 season if the total is between 200 and 204.5.

The Hawks may rank highly in defensive efficiency, but they have still been giving up plenty of points, including 103.5 PPG at home. Over the L5 games, they have allowed 103.2 PPG. Now that's largely due to one really poor effort out in LA against the Lakers, who rang up 123 pts on them. A big key is the Hawks are playing fast as in the seventh fastest pace of play per game in the league. By the way, the Over is also 25-15 in the second game of back to backs for them. So far, they are shooting 47.4% for the season on all FG attempts, but also 38.9% from three-point range at home. Look for a pretty high-scoring game here. 10* Over Bulls/Hawks

8* Under Rockets/Spurs (9:35 ET): San Antonio is 5-2 SU, but both losses have been bad and in each instance I'm proud to say I happened to be against them. Those losses were 106-91 at home to Utah (were -10.5) and then Saturday, 116-92 at home to the Clippers (-4.5). But that being said, this still remains as one of the top three teams in the league. Tonight, they will host a Houston team that is playing its fifth consecutive road game. Recent trips to the Alamo haven't gone well for the Rockets as they are 0-4 SU/ATS the L4 and all of those games have also gone Over the total. But for this venture, they arrive having gone Under each of the L3 games. This is a high total by San Antonio standards (admittedly not by Houston's though). Take the Under.

The Spurs have actually gone Over in each of the last four games. But those totals were obviously all lower than this one. Their leading scorer Kawhi Leonard finished w/ only 14 points last game, not scoring at all after halftime. We'll likely see an increase in his individual offensive production here, but the team defense is what's set to improve the most from the last game. The Clippers torched the Spurs for 39 points in the first quarter and 73 in the first half. Despite that, this remains a Top 10 team in the league in defensive efficiency. They allow only 93.7 PPG at home.

Houston has actually now stayed Under in five of seven games overall.  That includes a 3-0 mark after allowing 105+ points last game, which they did here.  They are also 4-0 Under after scoring 105+ points the last game. While this is a low total for them, lowest of the season in fact, it's also the staunchest defensive opponent they've faced so far. 8* Under Rockets/Spurs

10* Minnesota (7:35 ET): The T'wolves have just one win this year, but it came by 36 points (over Memphis). That's a greater margin than their four losses combine to equal (30 points) even after factoring in their first "bad" game of the year, a 112-92 loss at Oklahoma City Saturday night. Prior to that, Minny had actually led by 15+ points in each of their first three defeats. So, we're coming off the first time all year that the T'wolves didn't lead their opponent by double digits. Much improvement was expected from this team in 2016-17 and I believe they are a lot better than the overall record. Lay the points.

Brooklyn, on the other hand, was projected by most to be one of (if not THE) worst teams in the league. Because of that, they have been able to take advantage of some large spreads and start the season 5-1 ATS. They are 2-4 SU, but three of the losses have been by five points or less. While they've performed better than I projected them to (so far), I still have little regard for this Nets squad and I expect them to get run out of the gym here. A number of key players are out for them, most notably PG Jeremy Lin. Randy Foye and Greivis Vasquez are also battling injuries. Foye is listed as probable but Vasquez is not expected to play tonight.

Ricky Rubio's absence has affected Minnesota at the point guard position, but they'll have the best player on the floor Tuesday in the form of Karl-Anthony Towns, who is off B2B 30+ pt games. This is not just the best player in this game, but one of the best young players in the league. Something else that's interesting is the fact that the T'wolves rank in the Top 10 in the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency! The Nets haven't played since Friday and this is their fourth consecutive home game. But that second half of the equation may not be a good things considering their awful 4-16 ATS record when taking the court after playing three in a row here at the Barclays Center. 10* Minnesota

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Yesterday's win by Dallas (I was on 'em!) leaves only two teams winless across the league. They are New Orleans (many injuries) and "old reliable" Philadelphia. There hasn't been a lack of trying w/ these young Sixers, however. Saturday night saw them rally back from a double digit deficit here at home against Cleveland to lose by only a single point. Thus, they easily covered the spread there. Utah appears to be getting a bit too much respect by comparison and this is the second game of a back to back for them. Yesterday, in an early start time, the Jazz beat the Knicks by five (114-109), the return of Gordon Heyward to the lineup. But winning by any kind of margin here will prove difficult. Take the points.

Saturday night actually saw the Sixers come all the way back to take the lead on Cleveland before the incomparable LeBron James worked his magic and found an open Channing Frye for the GW three-pointer. Still, even though it was their 42nd consecutive loss in October/November, Philly should hold its head high. Joel Embid scored 22 points and was a perfect 4 for 4 from behind the three-point line. He currently leads the team, averaging 18.5 PPG. Three of the Sixers' losses this year have come by six points or less, two of them by two points or less! Other than the game vs. Atlanta, they've generally been pretty competitive.

As for Utah, we're all thinking this is their year to breakthrough into maybe the Top 5 in the Western Conference. It certainly was an encouraging sign to see Hayward score 28 points in his return Sunday afternoon. But the B2B scenario should catch up w/ the Jazz here. Laying points on the road is still fairly a new concept for this team. Note they trailed for the majority of the first three quarters yday, even by double digits in the first half. I don't see them shooting better than 50 percent for a second consecutive game. While Hayward is back, Alec Burks and Boris Diaw remain out, leaving them a bit short-handed and that can come back to bite a team when its playing w/o rest. 10* Philadelphia

8* Dallas (7:05 ET): The decline of the Mavericks is something we all expected this year, but so far the decline has been more severe than initially thought. They enter Sunday as one of only three winless teams in the league. The other two are New Orleans (very injured) and Philadelphia (always terrible). In fact, the Mavs actually own the worst per game scoring differential in the Western Conference right now (-8.8). But they are favored tonight, at home, against an opponent playing w/o rest. Milwaukee won big on their home floor last night, 117-91 over Sacramento, and might be a bit too overvalued here as a result. I'm calling for Dallas to get its first SU win of the year. Lay the short number. 

Since scoring 121 pts in in an overtime loss to Indiana (season opener), the Mavs haven't hit 100 points again. After two of their first three losses either came in OT or by one point, it's been B2B double digit losses to Utah and Portland. But I'll make the argument that this is their weakest opponent yet. They have dominated Milwaukee through the years, winning 11 of the past 13 meetings including three straight here at home. Yes, I'm well aware there will be no Dirk Nowitzki tonight (or for the foreseeable future), but I think that the remaining pieces can get the job done. Thus far, the team is shooting just 41.8% from the floor. That number can only go up, right?

To my earlier point about the Bucks possibly being overvalued here, note that over the L3 seasons they are just 2-10 against the spread when on a three-game win streak. Going back more than a decade, they're 48-87 ATS in the role. They've beaten New Orleans, Indiana and Sacramento, but needed OT to get by the Pelicans and their only other road game so far resulted in a double digit loss to the Pistons. I don't think playing in the second night of a back to back does them any favors here either. Over the L3 seasons, they are just 15-27 SU when playing w/o rest and that includes the double digit loss to the Pistons I just spoke about.  8* Dallas

10* LA Clippers (8:35 ET): Both of these Western Conference powers won last night, on the road. The Clippers went to Memphis and won 99-88 and really things were in line to be a bit more lopsided (Grizzlies outscored them 31-23 in the fourth quarter). LA led by as many as 21 in the contest and what should be real scary for San Antonio here is the fact the Clips were able to win so comfortably despite shooting only 37.6% from the floor. The Spurs, meanwhile, gained a measure of revenge for their only loss of the season Friday night. They beat Utah 100-86 as a short favorite, payback for a 106-91 home loss that took place earlier in the week (Jazz were my *10* Game of the Week in that first meeting). In this battle of heavyweights, I'll take the points.

The more things change, the more they stay the same. It's the familiar names on top of the Western Conference standings right now and the Clippers are right in the thick of things w/ a 4-1 SU and ATS record. Their only loss so far came by two points, at home, to fellow one loss team Oklahoma City (were seven-point favorites there). Considering last night and that the loss to OKC came by a score of 89-87, it shouldn't surprise you to learn that it's now been B2B poor shooting efforts from Chris Paul and company. But what should surprise you is the fact this team is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency - by a wide margin. They are giving up just 0.89 points per possession, a remarkable achievement when you consider San Antonio led the league LY at 0.96. Obviously, keeping that pace up will be difficult for Doc Rivers' team, but if they can stay near the top of the league, they'll have no trouble at all finishing at least third in the West this year.

We know how Greg Popovich sometimes treats these back to back efforts, so there is always the chance some key Spurs could be rested. They are already w/o their starting backcourt of Danny Green and Tony Parker. Therefore, I highly recommend betting this one now as we've already seen the number start to come down. Note: this play still stands regardless of line movement. Note that the Clips are a strong 29-12 SU in the second game of a back to back the L3 seasons, including an 18-pt win over Phoenix earlier this year. This projects to be a low-scoring game, so taking the points is the way to go. 10* LA Clippers

10* Washington (7:05 ET): At 0-3 SU and ATS, the Wizards are one of just four teams w/o a SU win so far. They are the ONLY team that has not covered. I look for that to come to an end after tonight when they host the team that beat them in the series opener, that being Atlanta. The Wizards have played the fewest number of games in the league to this point, so they still should be fresh. I readily admit to playing the Wiz in the aforementioned season opener and though they lost by 15, it was a one-point game entering the 4th quarter. They also blew a lead on the road, at Memphis, the following game. Wednesday night in the home opener, one would have hoped that things would turn around (I know I hoped they would!), but instead they lost to Toronto 113-103 - despite shooting 58.3% from the floor!

The Hawks had the best point differential in the league (+19.3) through the first week, but suffice to say that was going to last. I played against them Wednesday when they lost outright, at home, to the Lakers. The final score there was 123-116 and the Hawks came in favored by 12. They allowed LA to shoot 53.9% overall and score 72 points after halftime. With the losses of Jeff Teague and Al Horford in the offseason, questions are abound re: this team. Defensively, they had been able to maintain last year's standard. That was before facing LA though.

Scoring has not been an issue for Washington, who has been in every game. They just need to learn how to finish and not turn the ball over. It's not like this is a young team; they have a talented backcourt. They were my pick to win the Southeast and while early returns have not been good, I'm not giving up. Look for this to be their first win of the year. 10* Washington

8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Anyone thinking there might a "championship hangover" with the Cavaliers best think again as they are off to a 4-0 start, outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game. Certainly, it will be a bit of a somber mood tonight in Cleveland after the Indians dropped Game 7 of the World Series across the plaza last night. But that's nothing that LeBron and company can't rectify. This is a big Eastern Conference matchup on TNT considering much has been made of Boston being the Cavs top contender this season. But as you can see, the oddsmakers still believe there to be quite a gap at the top of the pecking order. I agree and will lay the points here as the Celtics are in the second game of a back to back.

The Celtics did win last night, 107-100 at home against Chicago, placing them as one of a number of teams in the East at 3-1 SU, one game behind the Cavs. But Boston is only +3.0 in per game point differential, which shows they've hardly been dominant. In fact, every one of their games have been decided by seven points. Under Brad Stevens, they have been an outstanding bet in the second game of a back to back, going 25-12 ATS (league-best during that time). But this is quite the challenge as they could be w/o both Al Horford and Jae Crowder due to injury. Horford is in the league's concussion protocol after leaving last night's game. Crowder sprained his ankle. The team was fortunate to be picked up by Amir Johnson, whose 23-point effort included four three-pointers. Don't expect a repeat of that here.

Cleveland was not at its best defensively (far from it) Tuesday night against Houston, but that can be excused given the Rockets forced the pace of play. The #1 team in offensive efficiency thus far, the Cavs scored 128 points for the game, which was moved up to a 6:05 ET start to accommodate the World Series. Even after allowing 120 pts to the Rockets, the Cavs are still top nine in defensive efficiency in the early going. They held both New York and Toronto to under 39% from the field. With Boston having struggled defensively against some subpar offensive opponents thus far, I expect James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love to all have big games here in what should turn into a somewhat surprising blowout. 8* Cleveland

8* New York (7:35 ET): I don't have much affinity for the present construction of this Knicks squad (imagine trying to run the triangle offense in 2016 w/ Derrick Rose no less!), but this is a really favorable spot for them as they catch Houston off a big game in Cleveland. In a game where the start time was moved up to accommodate the World Series, the Rockets came up short, 128-120 against the World Champion Cavaliers. My gosh, this is a bad defensive team. Thus far, they are giving up an alarming 1.13 points per possession, the worst such mark in the league. Consider that the Lakers were last a year ago, allowing 1.09. That gap is far more significant that you might think. It's absolutely ludicrous that the Knicks were attracting so much action before the season to win the NBA Finals, but for one night they'll look good.

Of course, the Knicks also played last night and lost. Defense wasn't necessarily their problem; rather they shot only 40.7% in a 102-89 loss. Both road games have resulted in less than desirable performances thus far as they also scored only 88 pts in a loss at Cleveland Opening Night. But the Knicks' one previous home game saw them score 111 pts in a win over Memphis. I'm calling for something along those lines here against the defensively inept Rockets. On the positive side, Rose at least contributed a season-high 19 points last night. For Houston, James Harden had a legendary game (41-15-7) last night in Cleveland, but it still wasn't enough. Harden is highly unlikely to match those kind of numbers again tonight; thus it's pretty tough to make a case for the Rockets winning. It's a heavy burden on Harden right now as starting PG Patrick Beverly remains out.

Dating back to January of 2010, these teams have played a total of 13 games. The Knicks have won only once straight up (3-10 ATS), but that one win did come last year. Keep in mind they have fielded some pretty bad teams through the years. Also, all three ATS wins have come in the L5 meetings. I just think that the burden on Harden is too great in this second game of a back to back. Adding to the problem is that Trevor Ariza sustained a head injury last night and is listed as questionable here. 8* New York

8* LA Lakers (7:35 ET): Through the first week of the season, it is Atlanta that owns the league's best per game point differential at +19.3. Don't expect them to keep that up, however, as this certainly does not grade out as one of the league's better teams. (I had them rated eighth in the East coming into the year). So, even hosting the Lakers, I look for that lofty point differential to start coming down. Be aware that the Hawks led the Wizards by only one point entering the fourth quarter in their season opener. It was a similar situation Monday hosting Sacramento as they trailed entering the 4Q of that one, before outscoring the Kings 27-14 over the final 12 minutes. This impressive point differential of theirs is basically owed to one game, that being a 104-72 road rout of lowly Philadelphia Sunday afternoon. I'm taking the points here.

This is the Lakers' fourth consecutive road game and second of a back to back. That helps to explain why tonight's line is a bit inflated. Since surprising Houston, 120-114 (as six-point dogs) in the season opener (at home), it's been three straight losses for Los Angeles. But they've covered in two of the three, at Utah and last night at Indiana. Yet, we still find them getting the most points they've gotten in any game on the trip here tonight. I patently disagree with the idea of Atlanta laying more points to an opponent than Oklahoma City, the one team the Lakers have failed to cover against on this trip. Even that was a relatively competitive game for Luke Walton's team as they trailed by only four w/ just under five minutes remaining. Last night, they were more than competitive w/ the Pacers, rallying back from a 16-pt deficit to take the lead for a brief time in the fourth quarter.

With Kobe Bryant out of the picture, the Lakers can now actually focus on getting better as a team. Last year was a disgrace that stunted the growth of the young players, who had to sit idly by and watch Kobe jack up an inordinate number of shots. We've already seen a modicum of improvement in the early going under Walton. I simply cannot support Atlanta in this price range. 8* LA Lakers

10* Washington (7:05 ET): It's been a relatively "light" schedule to this point for the Raptors and Wizards, both of whom are playoff hopefuls here in 2016. Actually, that moniker largely undersells what Toronto hopes to accomplish this season; they were in the Conference Finals a year ago and hope to at least make it back there. Then again, they have already failed their first test, that being a nationally televised home date vs. Cleveland. The result there was a 94-91 loss (they basically trailed wire to wire). Since then, they have bounced back w/ a three-point win over Denver. This will be the first road game for the Canadian contingent and ironically it's in our Nation's capital, a place the host Wizards have yet to play this season.

Washington is 0-2 SU/ATS having dropped road games to Atlanta and Memphis. This is a non-playoff team from last year that I have ascending into the top eight in the East. The Southeast Division is clearly wide open and someone must fill the void left by the disintegration of the Heat. With one of the best backcourts in the league (John Wall and Bradley Beal), I believe the Wiz will be that team. You would have hoped they would at least split the first two games, but oh well. Against Atlanta, it was actually a one-point game entering the 4th quarter before things fell apart. The final score against Memphis was also a bit misleading in that the game went to OT, only after Marc Gasol hit a three-pointer in the final seconds of regulation. That was a brutal situation as Gasol made 4 three-pointers in that game; which is one more than he made all of last season.

Last year, Toronto owned Washington head to head as they took all four matchups. Two were decided by three points or less, however. This being the Wizards' home opener and them being well rested is a significant advantage, I think. Over the L3 seasons, Toronto is just 31-46 ATS following a game where they scored 105+ points (They beat Denver 105-102). Opponents will NOT continue to shoot 47% from three-point range against Washington. I point to what Minnesota (a team that blew leads in its first two games) did last night as evidence the Wizards are in line for a strong performance tonight. 10* Washington

10* Utah (8:35 ET): This game sets up rather perfectly from where I sit. The demise of the Spurs has certainly been greatly exaggerated as Gregg Popovich's bunch is off to a 4-0 start - both SU and ATS. Most notably, they crushed Golden State on Opening Night, 129-100, and remember that was a road game! Since then, they've beaten three sub-par foes - Sacramento, New Orleans and Miami - all by comfortable margins. But what this run has done is greatly inflate the line for what projects as a tough, low-scoring matchup w/ the improved Jazz. Considering how the low the total is for this matchup, unless the Spurs turn in some sort of remarkable defensive effort, I don't see how they are able to cover this number. Take the points.

Utah is the chic pick in the Western Conference this year. While they did not make the playoffs last year (finished 40-42), they had a per game point differential (+1.2) that was better than four teams that qualified. (Only the heavyweights - GSW, SA, OKC and LAC - were better!). But, so far, this year has been a bit of a disappointment. They stand at only 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS following an embarrassing 88-75 loss to the Clippers on Sunday. Seeing that point total, I shouldn't have to tell you that it was a pretty horrendous shooting night for the team as they connected on only 39.7% of their FG attempts and the four starters other than George Hill combined to score only 20 points. Even facing a top tier foe like San Antonio, improvement is all but guaranteed tonight.

The Jazz definitely miss Gordon Hayward (out first 20 games), but there is still plenty of talent on hand here. Hill led the way w/ 18 pts Sunday afternoon and backup PG Dante Exum was also in double figures. The quartet of Boris Diaw, Rudy Gobert, Rodney Hood and Joe Johnson combined to go a miserable 8 of 25 vs. LA and that will be improved upon here. Clearly, all the preseason praise led to an overvaluation in the market, but now the team is back to being properly rated, if not undervalued. They have had their struggles in the last few seasons in San Antonio, but this is the best they've brought here in a while. Again, taking the points in a game projected to be as low scoring as this one is typically a good idea, particularly if its a conference game. 10* Utah

8* Under Grizzlies/T'wolves (8:05 ET): This is an early season rematch from a 102-98 Memphis win (at home) last Wednesday. It was the fifth consecutive time these two teams have conspired to go Over the total against one another. However, you should note that last week's meeting went Over by the slimmest of margins as the total was 199. The oddsmakers' projection is basically the same for tonight's tilt and with the Over now having gone a combined 5-0 in these teams games this season, I say we're about "due" for an Under to come through.

Minnesota has been an early season disappointment. They're 0-2, but those losses have been by a combined seven points and both were on the road. This young team was projected for one of the biggest leaps in the standings this year and should compete for what will be a wide open race for the 8 seed in the Western Conference. I thought the projection of 40+ wins was a bit too high, personally, and am not surprised at the 0-2 start. Losing at Sacramento on Saturday had to be disappointing given they shot 51.4% from the floor. Even more concerning is that the team has led by at least 17 in both games. Free throw shooting has cost them as they're just 70% so far from the charity stripe. With Tom Thibodeau as the head coach, it stands to reason that the team's current 28th place ranking in defensive efficiency will improve moving forward.

Memphis has yet to shoot better than 45% in any game, yet they are averaging a healthy 106.0 PPG. What makes that discrepancy all the more shocking is they currently rank 28th in pace of play. By the way, do you know one of the two teams currenty playing slower than the Grizzlies? That would be Minnesota! (Utah is the other). Of course, it doesn't take much digging to understand the Grizz's offensive numbers. Last time out, they went to overtime and beat Washington 112-103. That game saw Marc Gasol make a career-high four three-pointers, which is more than he even attempted all of last season! One came w/ just 15.7 seconds remaining in regulation, forcing OT.  With two of the three slowest paced teams in the league facing off here, I smell an Under. 8* Under Grizzlies/T'wolves

8* Under Bulls/Nets (7:35 ET): For whatever reason, the Bulls always seem to go Over the total when facing teams from the Atlantic Division (27-8-2 Over L37 games). That includes all three meetings last year vs. the Nets, which saw 215, 207 and 220 total pts scored. All but one resulted in a Chicago victory and oddsmakers didn't really adjust the total properly until the last meeting, which ironically ended up being the highest scoring of the bunch (118-102 Bulls win) anyway. We have a similar number attached to the first meeting of 2016-17, but I feel its still a little "too high" for this early in the season. Looking at those three matchups from last season, Brooklyn shot remarkably well from the FT line (50-62) and I don't see them duplicating that here. Nor will the Bulls duplicate their hot 3-pt shooting (34 of 78) from those three games either. Take the Under.

Chicago has undergone somewhat of a massive transformation in the offseason. Though they're 2-0 SU, I do not like the makeup of this team at all w/ Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler. I do not see this team matching its 52% shooting from the last game, a 118-101 rout of Indiana. So far, Wade and Butler have combined for 76 points. Rondo dished out 13 assists vs. the Pacers and Doug McDermott made 9 of 14 shots en route to 23 points. I just don't see those kinds of numbers as sustainable. The team shot only 39.1% from the floor against Boston. Of note is that this is the Bulls' first road game of the season. They are 4-1 Under the L2 seasons when the total is 210+ points.

Brooklyn is hoisting a lot more three-pointers this year, but only connecting at a 32.1% clip. This is just the second time in franchise history that they've attempted 30+ three-pointers in three consecutive games. They were 11 of 35 from behind the arc in Saturday's 110-108 loss to Milwaukee. That game was decided at the buzzer on a John Henson tip in. The Nets' one home game thus far saw them play some pretty good defense as they held Indiana to only 94 points on 37.8% shooting, which included 7 of 24 from three-point range. Look for a lower scoring game than expected here. 8* Under Bulls/Nets

8* LA Lakers (7:05 ET): Though Bryant himself was terrible last year, the expectation was for the post-Kobe era Lakers to really struggle this year. Instead, they opened the campaign w/ a surprise win at home (over Houston) and then covered the spread at Utah Friday night. Here, we find them making the trip to OKC and I feel the value is on them as the dog. OKC is 2-0 SU, but also 0-2 ATS as the numbers vs. both Philadelphia and Phoenix proved to be too much. The Thunder are of course also dealing w/ a major offseason departure, that being Kevin Durant. While Russell Westbrook and a formidable frontcourt will be enough to keep them near the top of the Western Conference, it appears as if that's not enough to cover spreads against the teams perceived to be at the bottom of the league. Take the points.

In fact, at home, the Thunder were taken to overtime by Phoenix on Friday night. It took 51 points and a triple double from Russell Westbrook to get the 'W.' It was the first time since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1974-75 that we saw a player acheive a triple-double w/ at least 50 points. Such a performance from Westbrook might be both a "blessing and a curse" for OKC this year. While obviously a talented player that's capable of carrying this team to 50+ wins, Westbrook figures to dominate the ball a bit too much and that likely will lead to a few "bad" performances as well throughout the season. The team could become too reliant and the offense too stagnant. Consider only one other player was in double figures Fri night (Victor Oladipo). The team shot just 41.7% from the floor w/ Westbrook taking 44 of the team's 96 attempts.

The Lakers have not beaten the Thunder since March of 2014. That's eight consecutive losses and they are just 2-5-1 ATS in those matchups as well. Last year, they were a double digit dog in all four and covered only once. Despite that, there's no denying that the Lakers look like a better team so far in 2016. While OKC figures to have one player dominate the ball, LA is now "done with that" as Bryant thankfully retired. 8* LA Lakers

8* Orlando (7:35 ET): Cleveland's defense of its first ever NBA Championship has gone well so far as they destroyed the Knicks on Opening Night, then won at Toronto last night (by 3). Though they return home tonight (while much of the city will be focused on the World Series), laying double digits w/o rest is a tough spot, even this early in the season. Orlando is 0-2 SU/ATS and thus going to be a pretty desperate team on Saturday night. The Magic are 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS vs. the Cavaliers the L3 seasons, but this is a steep price tag, the largest we have seen attached to any of those seven matchups. Take the points. 

Now it certainly deserves to be pointed out the Cleveland is 14-0 the L14 meetings vs. Orlando with the average margin of victory coming by 21 points per game! But despite what the early returns may seem to indicate, this year's edition of the Magic should be a lot better than what we've seen the last few seasons. Yes, they lost at home to Miami and then were blown out at Detroit last night. They allowed 50.5% shooting and lost by 26, so clearly this is a "buy low" situation. With Frank Vogel now serving as HC, I expected this team to be a little more stout defensively. Of course, it would also help if the started to shoot a lttle better. They were only 34.7% from the floor last night and 36.6% for the season so far. Even against a top-flight team like Cleveland, I expect that number to go up. 

Cleveland has had an issue w/ turnovers as they have 31 of them the first two games. That's been mitigated by their first two opponents shooting only 37.85% from the floor thus far, but that percentage is unsustainable. LeBron James actually played center last night as the team is short-handed w/o Channing Frye (death in the family). Orlando, by comparison, has only turned it over 20 times in two games. This is obviously a huge early season number and note that the Magic are 9-4 ATS the L3 seasons as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points. They are also 20-16 ATS playing in the second of back to backs. Cleveland is just 17-21 ATS w/o rest. I can't see the Cavs wining by this big a margin. 8* Orlando

8* New Orleans (9:35 ET): The world figures to be on Golden State here as the Warriors were flat out embarrassed on Opening Night, losing 129-100 (at home!) to the Spurs. But, I'm of the belief that the Dubs will consistently be overpriced on a game by game basis this season and thus the value is typically going to come fading them. Here, they are being asked to lay double digits, on the road. I realize that the Pelicans failed to win a game where Anthony Davis went for 50 points, 16 rebounds, 5 assists, 7 steals and 4 blocks! But the team also combined to go a horrific 3 for 19 from three-point range, a number that all but HAS to improve tonight. Look for Davis to carry his team to a cover. Take the boatload of points.

While the key core returns, there are many new faces on board. The most notable is obviously Kevin Durant, who did play well in the opener. He made 11 of 18 shots, finishing w/ 27 points. Steph Curry had 26, but was only 3 for 10 from behind the three-point line as it's highly unlikely that LY's other-worldly numbers will be repeated. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green were also in double figures. But no one else on the team scored more than five points and that's where the problem lies. The top four is as strong as any top four on any team in league history, but the dropoff after Curry, Durant, Thompson, Green is severe and you have to wonder just who will be able to contribute consistently. Don't discount the fact that HC Steve Kerr has lost his top assistant each of the last two years. Complacency may also set in w/ a team still disappointed about LY's Finals loss.

The Warriors were also awful defensively against San Antonio, giving up 30+ points in EVERY quarter. Lost in LY's incredible run is that this was one of the top FG% defenses in the entire league. I expect them to regress in that department this year. Interesting is that not only is the team 5-4 ATS as a road favorite of 9.5 to 12 pts the L3 seasons, those four ATS losses have also all resulte in outright losses. New Orleans may be shorthanded here, but they have Davis and figure to be highly motivated playing the league's best team. When they hosted Golden State last year (granted very early in the season), they were only 5.5-pt dogs. It took 53 points from Curry for the GSW win. 8* New Orleans

8* Houston (8:35 ET): The Rockets really let me down Wednesday night, losing their first game to the Lakers. Coming into the year, offense was not thought to be an issue for this team under new HC Mike D'Antoni and it wasn't in LA as they went for 114 points. But defense was another matter as they let dreadful opponent shoot better than 50 percent from the floor en route to scoring 120. Houston also failed to shoot well from three-point range (24.1%), something that I do not anticipate being the case moving forward. Were it not for a -15 pt discrepancy from behind the arc, I just don't see how the Rockets lose that game Wednesday. I'll come back w/ them here. Take the points.

Dallas has made the playoffs every year this century save for one time (2012-13). They have not had a losing record since 1999-00 (went 40-42) and you'd have to go back to 97-98 to find the last time they didn't win at least 40 games in a full 82-game season. But this year, I expect the Mavs to take a pretty significant step back. They lost a tough one in the opener, 130-121 at Indiana, a game that went to overtime. They had trailed earlier by as many as 14. Dirk Nowitzki simply isn't getting any younger and the supporting cast around him has crumbled. Had it not been for a Harrison Barnes' three-pointer w/ 2.3 seconds remaining in regulation, then the team would have lost in OT. They let the Pacers shoot 52.6% from three-point range and 50.5% overall for the game.

Getting back to Houston's three-point shooting from the first game, they missed 15 of 16 attempts in the second half. That can't happen again. While Dallas has taken 29 of the last 43 head to head matchups in this Southwest Division rivalry, note Houston has won six of the last nine. They split four last year. Given the Mavericks' inability to defend Indiana, I think that they are in for a rough outing here against a Houston team that can absolutely pour it on. Look for the road team to come in and take this front end of a home and home. 8* Houston

8* Charlotte (8:05 ET): Similar to their season opener vs. Milwaukee, the line has moved in the direction of the Hornets here. Miami may have also won its season opener, 108-96 at Orlando (+3), but I'd caution about expecting much from the Heat in 2016-17. This team is a shell of its former self w/ all of the "Big 3" (LeBron, Wade, Bosh) all departed as have Luol Deng and Joe Johnson. As you might expect, Hassan Whiteside led the way against the Magic w/ 18 points and 14 rebounds. Goran Dragic contributed 16 pts in a game the Heat basically led for the entirety of the second half. While Miami has dominated Charlotte through the years here at home (25-5 SU L30), I would expect that to change this season.

This is of course a revenge spot for the Hornets as they were eliminated in seven games LY by Miami in the 1st round of the playoffs. Game 7 was here in Miami and saw the Heat prevail by a score of 106-73, one of the largest margins of victory ever in a Game 7. This year, I anticipate only Charlotte making it back to the playoffs. They get a full season of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who was limited to only seven games in 2015-16. He scored 23 pts and added 14 rebounds in the team's opening night victory over Milwaukee. That was a really dominant performance by the Hornets as they led by as many as 24 in the 107-96 SU win and cover. Roy Hibbert was also solid Wednesday night. Not only did he score 15 pts, but so too did his backup Cody Zeller.

Miami probably can't rely on another opponent shooting just 38.6% from the field like Orlando did Wednesday. Nor should they rely on the likes of new starters Dion Waiters and Luke Babbit. Both Josh Richardson and Wayne Ellington remain out. Charlotte was a strong defensive team to begin with under Steve Clifford; with Hibbert in the fold, they are even stronger. Don't forget about Kemba Walker either; he should be the best player on the floor Friday night. These teams finished even in the standings LY, but I thought Charlotte was better as they outscored teams by a full point more per game than did Miami. The Hornets are as good or better than last season while the Heat are significantly worse. 8* Charlotte

8* Washington (7:35 ET): The Southeast Division is wide open this year. Miami finished in first place last year, but we know they are set to take a rather significant step back in 2016-17. That leaves a void that needs to be filled. I believe the Wizards are the team most likely to step up. Though they failed to even make the playoffs LY, they still possess one of the top starting backcourts in this league w/ John Wall and Bradley Beal. Health was an issue for the Wiz early on last season, but once the got their full compliment of players back, it was a strong 18-13 SU finish to the campaign. This was definitely the best team in the East not to make the playoffs (faint praise, I know!) & if they can continue to feast on below .500 competition (23-9 SU LY), then I project a big jump in the standings.

Atlanta has undergone a significant makeover in an attempt to get them out of the perpetual mediocrity they've resided in for the past decade. Jeff Teague and Al Horford are both gone. They have been replaced with Dennis Schroeder and Dwight Howard. Schroeder is an "in-house promotion" as he was the backup to Teague at the PG position last year. It will be interesting to watch how he handles the significant increase in minutes that comes w/ being in starting lineup. Howard is an interesting call. He is no longer the dominant force he was in Orlando, but has something to prove after awful tenures in LA and Houston. Personally, I feel Schroeder and Howard are both downgrades from the respective predecessors. The only clear sign of improvement for the Hawks this year is that they probably won't go 0-5 SU in overtime games again. 

I favor the Wiz here and believe the better team is getting points. New HC Scott Brooks is looking to make an impact in his first game at the helm. These teams played four times last year and all were decided by double digits. Expect a more competitive affair here where the points are worth taking. Also key is regression/progression to the mean on the defensive end. Even w/ Howard, don't look for the Hawks to repeat last year's performance where they ranked #2 in the league in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, I expect Washington to improve upon its 104.6 PPG allowed from LY. 8* Washington

8* Houston (10:35 ET): I spent a majority of last season ripping the Lakers as a young team that stood idly by and watched Kobe Bryant take an inordinate amount of FG attempts. The result was a horrible 17-65 SU finish, second worst in the league, ahead of only the 76ers. But now that it's "Mamba Out," my projection for this team gets no rosier. They still figure to be one of the three worst teams in the league. I saw a recent transaction for the club that included the names "Metta World Peace" and "Yi Jianlin." That should tell you all about where this once proud franchise currently stands. While there's good young pieces, it's going to take a lot of time to gel and LY's Kobe victory lap really stunted a lot of potential growth. Lay the points here.

Houston had its own issues last year as they barely made the playoffs despite being one year removed from an appearance in the Western Conference Finals. After leading the league at the betting window in 2014-15 at 59.2% ATS (58-40-1, a record that was better than anyone last year), they dropped all the way down to 43.7% ATS (38-49), which was WORST in the league. How about that? Where I come from, that's called "regression to the mean," but expect the team to finish somewhere in the middle during this campaign. The Rockets have thankfully rid themselves of Dwight Howard, who did not have a good tenure here. I expect a bounce back year from James Harden and w/ Mike D'Antoni now running the show, I would not be shocked if this team led the league in points per game. 

I think you can certainly expect Houston to score plenty of points tonight as they face the team that ranked 30th (ie last) in defensive efficiency a year ago. The Lakers allowed a dreadful 1.09 points per possession in 2015-16 and in a game that figures to turn into a track meet, that's bad news. Over the L3 seasons, Houston has gone 6-1 SU and ATS vs. the Lakers, including a perfect 4-0 here in LA. Every game last year was decided by at least 17 points w/ three coming by 20+, so yeah this is a bad matchup for the home team. 8* Houston

10* Phoenix (10:05 ET): The Suns were not a good team last year. Actually, that's putting things quite mildly. They went 23-59 SU, getting outscored by 6.7 points per game. Only Brooklyn, Philadelphia and the Lakers were worse in my own personal power rankings. I was actually a bit surprised to find that the Suns were favored a total of 26 times last season (went 11-15 ATS). But only five of those times came after January 1st and two of them were in the meaningless two final games. Therefore, you might be a bit shocked to see me calling to lay the short number here. Don't be. I feel Sacramento is wildly overrated and getting too much respect from the oddsmakers here. This is a rare time when the favorite isn't getting the majority of bets.

The Kings have gone 3-1 - both SU and ATS - each of the L2 seasons against the Suns. After losing the first matchup here in Phoenix LY, they won the next three. Interestingly, Phoenix was favored in both home games last year - by six and 10 points respectively. Some are thinking Sacramento can possibly compete for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, but I don't buy it. This continues to be a dysfunctional franchise as it's difficult to build around Boogie Cousins, even as talented as he is. PG Darren Collison is suspended for the first eight games (domestic abuse) and starting in his place will be Ty Lawson, who has his own set of issues, one of them being he's not a very good point guard at this stage of the game. That's problematic b/c the team doesn't have another true point guard on the roster! The Kings were just 15-26 SU on the road last season and were a terrible defensive team, giving up a league-worst 109.1 PPG. 1st year HC Dave Joeger has a lot of work to do here. 

Of course, so too does Suns HC Earl Watson. But I like how his roster is progressing. Will this be a playoff contender in 2016-17? Obviously, not. But can they beat Sacramento at home, laying only a short number? Yes. Keep in mind that this team suffered a ton of injuries last season. Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker is your starting backcourt w/ Brandon Knight coming off the bench as the sixth man. That's a solid foundation. Up front you have Jared Dudley, Tyson Chandler and some good young talent that will be enough to aid in winning this game "going away." 10* Phoenix

10* Portland (10:05 ET): In my initial NBA Power Rankings column, I have these teams basically rated as being even. Based on that, one might surmise that I'd feel the Blazers are a tad bit overvalued here on Opening Night. That assertion would be wrong. Utah is a team that I feel will make a leap into the middle of the playoff pack in 2016-17, but they are the ones a tad bit overvalued coming into this season. Calls for 50+ wins or a Northwest Division Title seem to be a case of putting the "cart before the horse" to me. Portland has always been a very strong home team. They were 32-14 SU here last year and that included a pair of wins over the Jazz. Overall, they took three of four head to head last season. Utah is not exactly healthy to start the season w/ Gordon Hayward definitely MIA and Derrick Favors + Alec Burke also possibly out. Lay the points.

It's difficult to fathom now, but Portland was actually projected to win fewer than 30 games last season. That was due to them losing FOUR starters from the previous campaign, one of them being All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge. But credit HC Terry Stotts for doing a tremendous job here. There's no such attrition to suffer through coming into this season as the nucleus of LY's playoff team is all back. Most notable is Damian Lillard, the only player in the league besides LeBron James, Steph Curry and Russell Westbrook in the Top 10 in both points and assists. This is a deep roster too; they added Evan Turner for depth in the offeseason. CJ McCollum, alongside Lillard, makes for one of the better starting backcourts in this league. Folks, this team has been in the second round of the playoffs each of the L2 seasons. They averaged a whopping 108.2 PPG at home last year.

Utah was not a good road team LY as their record was only 16-25 SU and averaged only 96.8 points per game. Pretty short-handed, I see them struggling to match Portland on the offensive end. I also don't expect them to be in "mid-season form" when it comes to the defensive end. There are some new pieces as well, such as PG George Hill, Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw, that will require time to gel. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 6.5 points, the Blazers went 12-6 ATS last year. 10* Portland

8* Over Knicks/Cavaliers (7:35 ET): Lost in all the hoopla surrounding tonight's much anticipated World Series Game 1 is that Cleveland will also be celebrating its first professional sports championship in over half a century, the Cavaliers' NBA Finals stunner last June over the Warriors. The Cavs treated me quite kindly during that run; I had them in Game 7 (and in my analysis called for the outright win). Here on Opening Night, they'll be facing a far less formidable opponent. All the key pieces are back for the NBA Champs, most importantly LeBron James. Kevin Love should be more comfortable in his third year with the team and unlike last season, Kyrie Irving will be suiting up on Opening Night. There is no reason to believe this team shouldn't at least repeat as Eastern Conference Champions.

I've seen several outlets report that the Knicks have received more individual wagers to win the NBA Title than any other team. That is insane. Yes, their odds offer more value than the Cavaliers, but there is a reason for that. I'm sorry; but I think Phil Jackson has done an atrocious job here as the GM. Why is this team still attempting to run the antiquated triangle offense? They have a new HC in Jeff Hornacek. I think the move to bring in Derrick Rose was totally overrated as he's a below-average contributor at this point of his career. The offense, triangle or not, will still run through Carmelo Anthony. Kristaps Porzingis and Joakim Noah are nice complimentary players.

This isn't the first time Cleveland has opened a season against New York in LeBron's second act here. James' first game back w/ the team (in 2014) was against the Knicks and the Cavs promptly lost that game, 95-90 as 12.5-pt chalk. That result has started a trend which has seen all seven matchups played between these teams the L2 years stay Under the total. But this Cleveland team has its full compliment of players and is gelled. New York will be the group working to fit all the new pieces together. While that will take time to produce positive results, I do concede there are simply more offensive options for NY than there have been in some time. Look for this Under streak to end tonight. I'm on the Over. 8* Over Knicks/Cavaliers

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): A SU win by Cleveland in Game 7 would re-write a lot of history. First of all, no team has ever won a NBA Finals after falling behind in the series, 3-1. Secondly, the last time Golden State has lost three consecutive games was November of 2013. Then there is the matter that no Cleveland sports team has won major professional championship since 1964. But of course, the beauty of this play is that we do not necessarily need a SU victory. The Cavs are getting points here and considering that not only are these teams dead even in points scored during the Finals (610-610), but that the underdog has actually been the more efficient side throughout the playoffs (+9.4 vs +6.5 pts per 100 possessions), I'm on the dog.

Going back to Game 3, Cleveland has really dominated the vast majority of the last four games of this series. They've obviously won in blowout fashion three times. Those three SU wins have all come by at least 14 points and by a combined 59. But in the one loss, which took place at home in Game 4, they led at halftime and were up by eight in the third quarter. Clearly, LeBron James has emerged as the best individual player in the series. Not only does he lead his own team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, he leads BOTH teams! In the last two games alone, James has gone for 82 points, 24 rebounds and 18 assists. That's preposterously good. In Game 6, it became clear that James has a point to prove here and that point is that he, not Steph Curry, is the best player in the league. By the way, Cleveland is 8-4 ATS taking points this season.

Home teams have of course traditionally enjoyed a tremendous home court advantage in Game 7's. But the Warriors are reeling right now. If Steph Curry and Klay Thompson aren't making threes, they're in real trouble. Injuries have also begun to hit them at the worst possible time. Andrew Bogut is out and Andre Iguodala isn't 100 percent, which is a killer defensively. The team's lone remaining interior presence is Festus Ezeli is a non-factor. Harrison Barnes is a horrific 2 for his last 22 from the field. Remember that James has averaged 34.4 PPG in Game 7's in his career. 10* Cleveland

10* Under Cavs/Warriors (9:05 ET):  Your results for the Over/Under from Game 5 will vary, but those who bet the Over late would have come up just short (by one-half point!), which seems inexplicable when you consider the game was tied 61-61 at halftime and featured not one, but two 40+ point performances from Cleveland (Kyrie Irving and LeBron James). Klay Thompson had 26 points at halftime for the Warriors. But don't tell that to anyone that got caught with 209.5. Needless to say, I don't think we'll be seeing so many great individual performances here in Game 6, nor are we likely to see half with so much scoring like the first brought in Game 5.  Thus, I'm on the Under here.

The most points scored in any game so far in the Finals has been 210 (Gm 3 here in Cleveland).  The losing side in every game has been held to 97 pts or less. Needless to say, with the stakes now so high, I believe we'll see a greater focus on the defensive end. As the two teams become more familiar with one another, its only natural to expect the defense to get tighter. Golden State has actually shot just 40.7% and 36.4% respectively the last two games. They were just 42.1% in Game 3. So, Cleveland's defense definitely seems to be improving. With Golden State, they'll have Draymond Green back and that's huge. He's held James and Irving to a combined 36% from the floor when guarding either in this series.

With Green suspended, James and Irving went nuts in Game 5, combining to shoot a preposterous 33 of 54 from the floor.  Again, I just can't see two individual performances such as those being duplicated. By the way, the rest of the Cavs team combined to score just 31 points, fewer than either James (41) or Irving (41)! I've said all year how I feel the Warriors are underrated defensively as the actually finished fourth in efficiency during the regular season.  Ten of the past 15 meetings between these two have stayed Under and I would not be surprised at all to see this end up being the lowest scoring game of the series.  10* Under Cavs/Warriors

10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): Draymond Green is out (suspended) and the line is dropping as a result. That's the story from the media and gambling perspectives for Game 5 of the NBA Finals. But truth be told, I'm not concerned with either narrative as I liked the Cavs in this spot well before the news came down Sunday. Even with Green being suspended for Golden State, I feel we're now back to where we were prior to Game 3, which is when everyone was writing Cleveland off and I decided to take them. My reward there was a 30-pt win. I came back with the similarly undervalued Warriors in Game 4 and while this one may not be quite as easy as either of those, the underdog (facing a "must-win" situation) simply isn't getting enough respect here and I'm taking the points. Don't rule out an outright victory either.

Make no mistake about it, Green being out does weaken the Warriors significantly. Only seven players in league history have ever registered 300 points, 200 rebounds and 100 assists in a single postseason. Green is the seventh. He's the team's third-leading scorer in the Finals, not to mention their leader in rebounds, assists and steals. He had 13 triple doubles during the regular season. He's played more minutes than any other Warrior in these Finals. The news just keeps getting worse if you're a Golden State fan. With him off the court in the series, the team's offensive efficiency drops 15.5 pts per 100 possessions and compared to the Cavs they are -9.6 pts per 100 possessions. On defense, LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are shooting a combined 36 percent from the field against Green. Finally, here's the big one. Green has missed only one game previously all season. The result was an outright loss to the Denver Nuggets.

Going back to last year's Finals, the Warriors have now beaten the Cavaliers eight times in nine overall meetings. I just don't believe the gap between the two teams is that severe. Cleveland has actually posted a better efficiency rating and point differential in the playoffs. They have had the lead in three of the four games and were up by eight in the third quarter in Game 4. I actually think that the Cavs are playing solid defense in this series as Golden State was just 16 of 45 from two-point range in Game 5. They are a good value plus the points. 10* Cleveland

10* Golden State (9:05 ET):  Well, the Warriors are off a loss here (just their 15th all season) and save for Game 4 of the last series, you know what that means. They're a sure thing to bounce back. They are 13-1 SU coming off a SU loss this season (9-4-1 ATS) and outscoring opponents by 12.4 PPG in those contests. Now, as you know, I went "all in" on Cleveland for Game 3. What has changed, you ask? Well, for one, you have the fact the Warriors are off a loss. Two, there is the size of that loss. Remember that Cleveland was off a similar margin of defeat going into that last game. Teams off a SU loss by 30+ pts in the NBA Finals are now 3-0 SU/ATS all-time in the next game. The Warriors are also now underdogs, which is rare. Take the points.

As dogs, Golden State is 4-2 SU/ATS this year.  That does include a 34-point win in this building back on Martin Luther King Day.  Betting these series on a game-by-game basis requires one to "go against the grain" often times. This was certainly the case for Game 3 when everyone was writing off Cleveland. Now, perception has swung the other way. The fact is, historically speaking, NBA teams tend to come back and play very well off a blowout loss (by 20 or more) in the playoffs.  

I also don't see how Steph Curry and Klay Thompson can continue to play as "poorly" as they have.  Curry is off one of his worst games all season, scoring only 19 pts in Game 3 as he got into early foul trouble.  The Warriors fell into a massive early hole, as they trailed 33-16 after the first quarter and while they got closer by halftime, the deficit was far too great to overcome, especially on the road. I don't see things getting so out of hand again.  As a team, the Warriors shot a pretty woeful 42.1% from the field, including just 9 of 33 on three-point attempts. Those numbers will go up tonight.  10* Golden State

10* Cleveland (9:05 ET):  It goes w/o saying that this is a "must-win" for the Cavs. Down 0-2 in the series, they have shown few signs of life, enjoying only a brief lead in both games and losing by the combined biggest margin in the first two games of any Finals in history. But if there was to be any game that they'd win, you have to think it would be this one (similar to Toronto in the Eastern Conference Finals). Now, that doesn't mean that they have to win, but I think they will.  Though Game 2 was a disaster, history is actually on Cleveland's side here. There have been only two times in Finals history where a team has lost a game by 30+ points. Both times the team that lost big came back to win and cover the next game. Much more so than Game 1 and even Game 2, people are now completely writing the Cavs off and that has created value.

There is simply no way Cleveland doesn't improve from its woeful Game 2 performance. Yes, there is a chance that Kevin Love may not play here, but an interesting issue has been raised whether the team may actually be better without him. Defensively, they certainly would be. There is the matter that NO Cavs player besides LeBron James has made any substantive contribution in this series. As we know, role players tend to play better at home.  We saw that with Golden State in the first two games.  Considering the hot shooting we saw from Cleveland in the first three rounds, it is almost incomprehensible that the same group could be so bad here. Through two games, they've shot below 37% overall and have missed 32 of 44 three-point attempts.  Those numbers should go way up in Game 3.

Cleveland has not lost at home in the playoffs, going 7-0 w/ the last five victories all coming by double digits. Despite the shift in scene here, they are actually receiving less action here than what they did for either Game 1 or 2. Again, that has to do w/ what happened Sunday night.  Three of Golden State's losses this year have come in games where they were road favorites of three points or less.  They actually opened as the 'dog here. While Cleveland could conceivably still go off as the favorite, it's still a shocking lack of respect being shown to a team that's 40-8 SU on this floor and outscoring its opponents by 10 points per game.  Also note that Golden State has lost every Game 3 during these playoffs, the last two by double digits (allowed 120 & 133 pts).   I look for the Cavs to get back into this series. 10* Cleveland

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET):  There are two ways to look at the Cavaliers' 104-89 loss to the Warriors in Game 1. One would be that they lost a game by double digits despite their opponent's top two scorers combining for just 20 points on 8 of 27 shooting.  The more positive outlook is that there is simply no way that Golden State's supporting cast will play as well as it did Thursday night and even though they lost by double digits, Cleveland did come back to go up (albeit only momentarily) in the second half despite really no one outside of LeBron James playing that well. That's the outlook I'm taking and I'm also taking the points.

The Cavs had been 7-2 ATS as an underdog this season before failing to cover Game 1. In terms of efficiency, they've actually been better than the Warriors this postseason, outscoring opponents by 11.1 points per 100 possessions while Golden State is just +9.4. Then there is the matter of LeBron James being a perfect 9-0 straight up in his career in Game 2's of a playoff series if his team dropped Game 1.  Last year in the Finals, we saw a Cleveland team (w/o either Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love) stun the Warriors on this floor w/ an outright win. This Cleveland team is better than last year and I expect them to show that tonight.

I just can't see the Warriors players not named "Thompson" or "Curry" combining to shoot 35 of 60 again from the floor.  Note that outside of the Cavs' "Big 3" (James, Irving, Love) and Tristan Thompson, the rest of the team attempted only 13 shots!  That's not enough.  The Cavs shot only 38.1% for the game and made only seven three-pointers.  We have seen how deadly they can be from behind the arc throughout these playoffs and I expect the likes of JR Smith and Channing Frye to play a bigger role tonight.  I do not rule out a repeat of last year where the Cavs win Game 2 outright.  The Cavs' current six-game losing streak to the Warriors matches the longest James has had vs. any opponent in his career.  10* Cleveland

10* Golden State (9:05 ET):  It's a rematch of last year's Finals, which were of course won by the Warriors in six games. Much will be made of the fact that the Cavaliers now have both Kyrie Irving (injured in LY's Game 1) and Kevin Love (missed the entire Finals LY) at their disposal. But will that be enough? Tonight in Oakland, I don't think so. The Warriors have actually beaten the Cavs five straight times going back to LY's Finals including a 34-pt trouncing in Cleveland during the regular season. I remain concerned about the Cavs' defense, which gave Toronto (and Atlanta, and Detroit for that matter) far too many open looks from three-point range. Though those opponents could not convert, Golden State will. Lay the points.

This could end up being just the fourth time that Golden State has been asked to lay six points or less here at home.  They are 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS previously.  Over the course of the season, this team has outscored its opponents by an impressive 14.2 points per game at Oracle Arena.  They've only lost here three times total.  The Cavs dropped two games in Toronto in the last series, not a good sign here.  On a game-by-game basis, favorites have generally dominated in these playoffs, cashing at virtually a 60% clip (46-32-2 ATS).

The Cavs defense is a concern as they are allowing 102.9 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs and that number came down several points after the Game 6 win over Toronto. I also do not believe they can continue their extraordinary shooting from three-point range. They've actually been better than the Warriors from behind the arc in the playoffs, but I'm not sure that will be the case by the time this series is over.  While it's extremely rare to catch Cleveland in this price range, the fact is that they haven't been challenged like GSW was by OKC in the Western Conference Finals and I think the Warriors have had enough time to recover (27-12 ATS when playing w/ exactly two days' rest).  10* Golden State

full analysis soon

10* Golden State (9:05 ET):  It hasn't happened often this season, but the Warriors are the underdog for tonight's Game 6 in Oklahoma City. They are 3-1 previously - both straight up and against the spread - when taking points.  They are also 6-1 ATS when down in a playoff series.  It is quite clear that the Thunder were undervalued coming into this series, but that's all changed now and I just don't see the 73-win Warriors going down here.  The outright win is likely, but definitely take the points.

It's important to recall that Golden State led big in Game 1 (wound up losing) and then also in Game 5 (still won and just barely held on for cover).  Yes, both of those games were in Oakland. The two games so far in this series in OKC were both blowouts that went the Thunder's way, but remember that this team has often times struggled to put away opponents, which cost them in the regular season vs. Golden State. Also, the Thunder are just 27-36 ATS after scoring 105+ points and 15-21 ATS after allowing 105+ points. 

I have to think Golden State is going to be better offensively here than they were in either Games 3 or 4.  Their scoring average in this series is about seven points below what it is for the season, so there's clearly room to grow for what was the league's most efficient offense during the regular season.  Defensively, they haven't been as strong as we're used to seeing either and I expect that to change tonight as well.  OKC is just 4-3 SU/3-4 ATS when up in the series during these playoffs.  I think that like Game 5, it is still a great time to "buy low" on the Warriors and "sell high" on the Thunder. 10* Golden State

10* Toronto (8:35 ET):  The Cavs and Raptors have met eight times this season and all eight times the home team has won. Thus, if I have an opportunity to get points with a host, I'm obviously going to take it. I had the Raptors here at home in both Games 3 and 4 when they won by a combined 21 points and covered the spread by a collective 32 points. Yes, they were completely destroyed in Gm 5 at Cleveland, losing by 38, but all that's done is create a situation where we are again able to get tremendous value in Toronto. With their season on the line tonight, I expect the Raptors to fight until the very end. Take the points. '

I'm just going to go back to my analysis for both Games 3 and 4 when it comes to Toronto's home court advantage. The Raptors have now won 8 of 10 home games in the playoffs to up their YTD mark here to 40-11 straight up. That's with a scoring differential of 6.5 points per game.  It's virtually unheard of for a team that's this good at home taking so many points.  Essentially, Toronto is getting the same level of respect that 8-seed Detroit did against Cleveland in Round 1. This despite the fact that the Raptors are now a perfect 4-0 ATS as home dogs of more than 3.5 pts this season, winning all of those games outright!  DeMar DeRozan is one player that really seems to "turn it up a notch" here North of the border as he scored 32 points both Games 3 & 4, bringing his YTD scoring average to 24.8 PPG here at the Air Canada Centre.

Cleveland is only 14-24-1 ATS as a road favorite this year, including 2-7 when laying between 6.5 and 9 points.  Remember that Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love went a combined 4 for 28 from the field the last game here in Toronto. Love, in particular, should decline from his breakout Game 5.  It's amazing that the Cavs continue to be favored here in Toronto given that they are not only 0-4 ATS here, but 0-4 straight up (favored every time).  As a team, Cleveland shot a blistering 57.1% from the field in Gm 5 including 10 of 21 from three-point range.  Those numbers absolutely will come down here.  10* Toronto

10* Golden State (9:05 ET):  Who would have ever thought we'd be in this position?  The Warriors, who won a record 73 games during the regular season (never once dropping B2B games) now face an elimination game and must win three straight against the red-hot Thunder just to get to the NBA Finals.  For the first time all season, they are off B2B losses as they were blown out in both games at Oklahoma City, losing by a combined 52 points. But now they are back at home, where they outscore opponents by 13 PPG for the season and have lost only three times. They "should" have beaten the Thunder in both Games 1 and 2 here and remember that it was a 27-pt victory in Game 2. Lay the points.

All season long, I've made the case that the Warriors are vastly underrated on the defensive end of the floor.  In the regular season, they finished tied for fourth in efficiency and they're allowing a similar number of points per 100 possessions, ranking 5th overall and tops among remaining teams. But there is no denying they were shredded by the Thunder each of the last two games, giving up a shocking 251 total points.  Look for a return to defensive form tonight, plus I don't see OKC getting to the free throw line w/ such frequency like they have the last two games (66 of 77). 

Offensively, Golden State shot just 41.3% in the two games at OKC and I would expect that number to obviously go up here.  This team led the league in offensive efficiency during the regular season, so coming off its lowest scoring game this postseason, it's poised for massive improvement.  At no point this season have the Warriors been held under 100 pts in consecutive games. In fact, they are 6-2 ATS in this situation, averaging a whopping 121.25 points per game.  That average seems like it would be more than enough to cover here and what's stunning about this run that the Thunder are on is that they came into the playoffs having lost 10 of the 11 games they were an underdog in the regular season.  As a road underdog, they're being outscored by six points per game and are just 4-11 (including playoffs).  10* Golden State

10* Under Raptors/Cavaliers (8:35 ET):  I said it before Game 3, but far too many people were quick to write Toronto off in this series after they lost both games in Cleveland.  Sure enough, they've responded by producing B2B outright wins at home (I was on them both times). Now, despite a seemingly generous number from the oddsmakers here, I can't quite "pull the trigger" a third straight time as the series now shifts back to Cleveland for Game 5. But I am confident that we'll see a low scoring game here, thus Under is the call, as the Cavaliers offensive regression should continue and we saw how poorly the Raptors shot the ball in the first two games.

Cleveland had produced historical efficiency at the offensive end through the first two series and then shot better than 50% in both Games 1 and 2 vs. Toronto. But when they went "North of the border," they cooled off rather dramatically, particularly from three-point range where they went a combined 27 of 82.  That is a staggering number of attempts, and quite frankly way too many when you consider that the chances of them matching the level of shooting we saw vs. Atlanta range from "slim to none."  Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love were also both terrible the L2 games. Now, I know a case could be made for improvement based on the fact the Cavs are returning home. But note that other than Games 1 and 2 of this series, the team has actually shot better than 50% only one other time in these playoffs! The historically great three-point shooting we saw in the last series simply is unlikely to return.

Now Toronto is coming off its best shooting effort of the entire postseason (53.8 FG%), so I project them to decline offensively here as well. Especially now that they're back on the road. The Raptors might have seen five of their last seven games go Over the total, but in the playoffs, their games are averaging just under 190 PPG.  That has a lot to do w/ them shooting a woeful 42.2% from the field overall.  Since winning Game 3 of the Indiana series, 101-85, this team has scored more than 91 points only one time in its last seven road games.  The Under is 27-13 L40 times they have been off a SU dog win, including 11-4 this season. 10* Under Raptors/Cavaliers

10* Golden State (9:05 ET):  Needless to say, the Warriors have hit a major speedbump in their pursuit of history. Down 2 games to 1 in this series, they were absolutely embarrassed in Game 3 as they lost by a stunning 28 pt margin. They trailed by 37 entering the fourth quarter in what ended up being "only" their second worst loss of the season (lost 137-105 in Portland on Feb 19). But if there's one thing we know about this team, it's they have an incredible ability to bounce back from a defeat. They haven't lost B2B games at any point this season as off a loss they've gone a perfect 12-0 straight up (8-3-1 ATS), winning by an average margin of 16 points per game! Great opportunity to "buy low" on the defending Champs.

Game 2 saw Golden State off a loss and they won by 28 points. This is now the first time they've lost multiple times in the same series since LY's NBA Finals. Note that while they are now 0-3 SU/ATS in Game 3's during this year's postseason, they bounced back nicely in Game 4 victories over Houston and Portland, winning those games by a combined 34 points.   Consider they are also 36-3 straight up this season after a game where they failed to cover the spread.  Tonight's number is so low, that a SU win w/o covering is highly unlikely. When down in a playoff series, this team is a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS its last five.

Draymond Green not being suspended here is a really big deal for the Warriors as well.  I see no way he won't improve upon a dreadful Game 3 where he shot 1 of 9 from the floor and finished with only six points. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are both likely to improve upon their combined 15 of 36 effort from Game 3, which included 5 of 19 from three-point range.  Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is just 1-3 ATS off its previous four SU wins as a dog this season.  I do not see them matching their 50% shooting from Game 3 nor do I envision another 33 of 37 performance from the free throw line forthcoming.  Durant and Westbrook alone were a combined 20 of 34 from the floor and 21 of 23 from the FT line.  Those percentages won't be duplicated. 10* Golden State

8* Toronto (8:35 ET):   As you already know, I had Toronto in Game 3.  My rationale for backing them again tonight is essentially the same.  Cleveland losing was bound to happen sooner or later as the fact is their defense hasn't been very good throughout the playoffs and offensively they could only regress.  To quote my own previous writing, "on the road is where you'd expect to see the decrease in productivity.  They (the Cavs) average about 4.8 PPG less on the road than they do at home (that's over the course of the season)."  Then there's the value of the home court to the Raptors, something that I believe is being drastically undersold by the linesmakers and public alike.  Take the points.

The Raptors have now won seven of nine home games in the playoffs to up their YTD mark here to 39-11 straight up. That's with a scoring differential of 6.6 points per game.  Again, I'll reference my analysis from the last game and point out that it's virtually unheard of for a team that's this good at home taking so many points.  Essentially, Toronto is getting the same level of respect that 8-seed Detroit did against Cleveland in Round 1. This despite the fact that they are now a perfect 3-0 ATS as home dogs of more than 3.5 pts this season, winning all of those games outright!  DeMar DeRozan is one player that really seems to "turn it up a notch" here North of the border as he scored 32 points in Game 3, bringing his YTD scoring average to 24.8 PPG here at the Air Canada Centre. 

Cleveland, meanwhile, was nowhere close to its super hot shooting from the first two games in Game 3.  They finished at just 34.1% from the floor and jacked up 41 three-pointers.  Again, I'll go back to my analysis from the last game and point out that the Cavs are now just 14-23-1 ATS as a road favorite this year, including 0-3 when laying five or more in the playoffs. But the new concern for Cavaliers bettors is that the team is 0-6 ATS in 2015-16 after they scored 85 pts or less the previous game (they scored 84 in Gm 3)! Obviously, you'd expect both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love (combined 4 for 28!) to play better here, but I'm suspicious that improvement from them alone can account for more than a 20-point swing, which is what they'd need to do to cover.  Take the points. 8* Toronto

    

8* Golden State (8:05 ET):  It seems like "forever ago" that the Warriors bounced back and evened this series up at one game apiece w/ a convincing 118-91 Game 2 victory. After three days off, the series now shifts to Oklahoma City. Interestingly, three of Golden State's 12 losses this year have come in situations where they had three or more days off between games. But I don't see that happening here and considering what we saw Wednesday night, I have no problem laying what is a very small number. Remember that the Warriors did lead by double digits at halftime in Game 1 before romping to victory in Game 2.  If not for the fourth quarter meltdown in Gm 1, they would be a perfect 5-0 vs. Thunder this year.

Oklahoma City is just 4-13 SU this season as an underdog. Only one of the games this year vs. Golden State has come here at home and that was the famous one where Steph Curry buried the half court shot at the end of regulation and the Warriors went on to win 121-118 in overtime (as three-point favorites).  The Thunder have been outscored in six of the eight quarters in the series and I just don't see the Warriors playing as poorly as they did in the second half of Game 1 yet again.  I mentioned earlier that Golden State has been surprisingly mediocre when taking the court w/ three or more days rest, but OKC has actually been a little worse, going just 2-3 SU/ATS in that situation.

While the Thunder have not dropped B2B games this postseason, the Warriors have suffered two losses in a three game span only twice - all season.  They absolutely deserve to be favored in this spot considering a +14.1 efficiency rating in the playoffs (OKC is +6.1).   The difference in actual scoring differential is identical (+8.0 PPG for the Warriors), so to me this line probably should be -5.  That little bit of value is enough for me to side w/ what has been the best team in basketball all season long. You won't find the Warriors in this price range very often, so take advantage.  8* Golden State

10* Toronto (8:35 ET):  Most are now simply considering it a formality that Cleveland will advance to a second straight NBA Finals. I admit that it certainly hasn't looked good for Toronto in the last two games.  They've lost by a combined 50 points and while this has been the franchise's most successful playoff run ever (1st ever Conference Finals appearance), the truth of the matter is they haven't been very impressive as they've actually been outscored (by about 3 PPG) and are just 3-10 against the spread the last 13 games. Now that all being said, the series now shifts "North of the Border" where I feel the Raptors are going to be far more competitive. This is a big number for them to be getting at home and I see it continuing to go up (so you may want to actually wait a little bit before placing your wager).

The last time Toronto played here at home, we saw them destroy Miami in Game 7, 116-89 as 4.5-pt chalk. They've won six of eight home games this postseason to bring their YTD record here to 38-11 straight up w/ a scoring differential of +6.4 points per game. It is almost unheard of that a team with that kind of home record would be getting this many points.  Only six times all year have the Raptors been a home dog and they have responded by going 5-1 ATS including a perfect 2-0 when taking more than 3.5.  They also won both of those games outright!  I'm not saying this will be an outright win for them, but I absolutely think the game will go down to the wire and easily be the most competitive game of the series so far.

Cleveland's offensive numbers have to start going down soon. They've shot better than 50% against the Raptors so far in the series, but on the road is where you'd expect to see the decrease in productivity.  They average about 4.8 PPG less on the road than they do at home (that's over the course of the season) and they are actually a money-burning 14-22-1 ATS overall as a road favorite. They didn't cover in close out games against either Detroit or Atlanta, which were the only two times so far in the postseason they've had to lay at least five points on the road.  Take the points.  10* Toronto

10* Over Raptors/Cavs (8:35 ET):  The Cavs have set a historic pace on offense this postseason by averaging a whopping 1.17 points per possession and they've already made more three-pointers in nine games than any team before this season had in 12 games.  In Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, they rolled to 115 points as Toronto did not show any ability to stop them. Even worse from the Raptors perspective is that Cleveland "only" went 7 of 20 from three-point range in the series opener, instead connecting on a shocking 63% of their two-point attempts.  Defensively, Toronto was clearly consumed with guarding the three-point line (which they typically aren't very good at doing anyway) and it cost them. Now they are faced with a situation where they don't know what to do in Game 2. I know what to do here though and it's take the Over!

The Raptors were pretty awful themselves on offense in Game 1 as they scored just 84 points on 42.1 percent shooting that included missing 19 of 24 three-point attempts. It has hardly been an efficient attack from Toronto this postseason, but I do anticipate them scoring significantly more points here in Game 2. I say that not only because they are 10-4 Over this season coming off a double digit loss (24-8 Over the L3 seasons), but also due to the fact that Cleveland's defense has hardly been "good" during this playoff run of theirs.  Game 1 was their best showing yet, but remember that they were coming off a long layoff while Toronto was playing for the second time in three days. Defensively, the Cavaliers are allowing 1.04 points per possession in the playoffs, worst among the four remaining teams.

Something else to consider from Game 1 is that Cleveland scored 95 points in three quarters, so their final point total (high as it may be) actually undersells how dominant they were.  Again, I don't really see Toronto finding a way to stop them.  If they again focus on defending the three-point line, the Cavs have shown they can exploit them inside. If the Raptors pack it in, the Cavs will likely go "bombs away" and burn them that way.  Cleveland is 9-3 Over this season if they allowed 85 pts or less the last game.  10* Over Raptors/Cavaliers

10* Over Thunder/Warriors (9:05 ET):  A funny thing happened late in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors completely collapsed down the stretch.  The NBA's most efficient offense managed only 14 points in the fourth quarter as they went cold from the field. That was the fewest points for them in any quarter this postseason and their 42 second half points were their fewest in any half. With Oklahoma City, keep in mind that they won despite Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook shooting a combined 17 of 51 from the floor! Thus, I think it's more than reasonable to expect more points to be scored tonight in Game 2. Take the Over.

Golden State had 60 points by halftime, so it's not like the Thunder were dominant defensively. It was simply a case of the Warriors missing shots that we usually see them make. Klay Thompson made only three three-pointers, the first time in seven games he didn't make at least five.  Steph Curry scored 26 points, but was only 9 of 22 from the floor.  This is a team that averages 115.7 PPG at home and Game 1 marked their second lowest scoring game of the postseason.  The lowest was their one loss to the Rockets in Round 1, a game they played w/o Curry. They responded the next game by scoring 121 points.  That's par for the course with this team as they are averaging a phenomenal 121.3 PPG off a SU loss this season.

Oklahoma City was #2 in offensive efficiency during the regular season, trailing only Golden State. They average 109.7 PPG and that number actually goes up slightly when they're on the road (110.4).   While just one meeting between these two teams has gone Over, and that was a byproduct of overtime, the O/U line has also now decreased dramatically from what we saw in the regular season (232+ every time) and is even several points lower than what we saw in Game 1.  So there's a ton of value here.  Both teams left a lot of points at the charity stripe, missing a combined 16 free throws on a total of 49 attempts.  That's highly irregular as both teams shoot better than 76% from the FT line for the season. Expect more points to be scored tonight.  10* Over Thunder/Warriors

10* Toronto (8:35 ET):  With the quick turnaround the Raptors are facing between series and the long layoff the Cavaliers have gotten to enjoy, I think that the knee-jerk reaction from most bettors is going to be to back the home team in Game 1. But that line of thinking is a little bit flawed when you consider there's just as good a chance that Cleveland comes out "rusty."  Sure they are a perfect 6-0 straight up when playing w/ three or more days rest this year, but this is a massive number to lay as Toronto is basically getting the same amount of respect that the 8-seed Detroit did in Round 1. The Raptors are a strong 17-11 ATS as underdogs this season, so take the points.

Toronto should also be very encouraged by the way that PG Kyle Lowry finished the Miami series. After some dreadful shooting in the Indiana series, Lowry came alive against the Heat by scoring 33 or more points three times in the last five games. He scored a series-high 36 in Game 7 Sunday and even more encouraging is the way he played against the Cavs in the regular season. There, he averaged 30 PPG while shooting a somewhat ridiculous 66 percent from the floor.  Kyrie Irving is not a good defender at all and figures to struggle to contain Lowry when he's on him in this series. Toronto did beat Cleveland in two of the three regular season meetings.

Speaking of defense, lost in the Cavs amazing barrage of three-point shooting this postseason is the fact they haven't been very efficient on the other end of the floor. Sure, you can take a look at the raw numbers and see that only one time have they allowed more than 101 points. But, they are also allowing five more points per 100 possessions than Toronto is during the playoffs. Their defensive efficiency rating of 106.5 is easily the worst among the four remaining teams and assuming there's a decline in the insanely good three-point shooting, this team is going to struggle to win by any kind of significant margin. Note that while they are a perfect 8-0 straight up in the playoffs, three of the wins have been by five points or less and only one (Game 2 vs. Atlanta) was really a blowout.  10* Toronto

10* Golden State (9:05 ET):  The Thunder are flying high into the Western Conference Finals as they surprised a lot of people (myself included) by ousting the Spurs in six games in the last round. It turns out that having two of the best five players on the planet really helps! However, I feel the Thunder's task is significantly more challenging here as they face a Golden State team that they don't matchup nearly as well against. It is true that OKC did have a fourth quarter lead in all three regular season meetings, but they still didn't win any of them and I wouldn't necessarily count on them playing that well tonight in Game 1. Remember that the Thunder were destroyed in Game 1 of the San Antonio series. This is a low number to get on the Warriors at home, so lay the points.

This is a matchup of the two most efficient offenses during the regular season (Cleveland has been better than both in the playoffs).  Oklahoma City is obviously great offensively, averaging 1.09 points per possession and 109.7 per game, but Golden State is simply better with averages of 1.12 and 114.8.  Both teams figure to score a lot in the series, but I think that the Warriors' vastly underrated defense could be the deciding factor. The Dubs' were fourth in the regular season in defensive efficiency and are third here in the postseason.  In the three regular season meetings, they held the Thunder to just 20 of 68 from three-point range.

I referenced earlier how this is about as low a price as you can hope to get on Golden State when they're playing at home. Well, they covered both home games against the Thunder in the regular season and are now 8-0 SU/6-2 ATS in the -6.5 to -9 point range as home favorites this year. Going back further, they are 21-9 ATS (70%) in that range the last three seasons. Another key could be the fact that OKC is only 1-3 SU/ATS when playing with three or more days rest. Also, before upsetting the Spurs twice in the previous series, they had been just 1-10 straight up as an underdog this year.  Before failing to cover the close out game vs. Portland, the Warriors were a perfect 5-0 ATS at home in the playoffs and their average margin of victory here over the course of the season is +14.6 PPG (45-2 straight up).  10* Golden State

10* Over Heat/Raptors (3:35 ET):  Points have been pretty hard to come by in this best of seven series. Just like the series itself, the Over-Under is tied at three games apiece, but we've yet to see more than 198 total pts scored in any one game (remember that three of the games have gone to OT) and Toronto has yet to break 100 pts on its own.  But that being said, we have seen a minor uptick in scoring the L2 games (both went Over) thanks to the Raptors' starting backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan finally both coming around.  With this game taking place at home, we can expect Toronto to score more (103.6 PPG) and they certainly should improve upon their overall 41.5 percent shooting from Game 6 (4 of 16 from three-point range).  Take the Over.

This represents a pretty low number on the spectrum for totals in Raptors home games this year. The Over is a perfect 3-0 the only three times the # has been between 185 to 189.5 points and that includes Game 5 where it was 189.  The key for Toronto in the last two games has been Lowry and DeRozan both coming alive as they combined for 59 points in the Game 5 victory and then 59 more in Game 6, albeit on a far less efficient shooting night.  But as mentioned above, Toronto is a better offensive team here at home where the Over is now 26-21-1 for the year. Also, the Raptors are 23-8 Over when coming off a double-digit loss the last three seasons. 

Theoretically, it should be easier for both teams to score inside as the starting centers are both out due to injury. Hassan Whiteside was a really strong defensive presence for the Heat and has been missed the last couple games.  While the Heat have been one of the top Under teams for most of the year, their scoring average definitely increased as soon as Joe Johnson came over and they are coming off a series high 103 points in Game 6.  Remember that Toronto often struggles to defend the three-point line.   Look for this deciding game to be feature more scoring than what the linesmakers expect. 10* Over Heat/Raptors

10* Toronto (8:05 ET):  Despite the struggles of both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan throughout the playoffs, the Raptors now have a chance to clinch a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals. All they have to do is win tonight at Miami.  With the number being what it is, obviously, I'm thinking there's a very good chance that they do advance, but let's definitely make sure to take the points anyway.  As I said in my Game 5 analysis, Toronto was bound to experience some progression to the mean after covering only one of their previous eight games. They'd actually played much better than that ATS record indicates as you're about to read. 

In fact, Toronto has now led at the half in six of the last seven games with Game 4 of this series being the lone exception. Even in that game, they enjoyed a nine-point advantage with just a little over six minutes remaining in regulation before spectacularly blowing the cover in OT (Miami was never "in the money" until the final seconds). Game 5 finally saw both Lowry and DeRozan "wake up" as the starting backcourt combined for 59 points and the team never trailed at any point in the contest.  As underdogs this season, the Raptors are a strong 17-10 ATS with 14 outright victories.  I know that this postseason hasn't always been pretty for them, but they have outscored the Heat over the course of this series.

All of the games in this series have been pretty low-scoring, so that's another case for taking the points.  Toronto's eight-point win in Game 5 was the largest margin of victory in this series and consider that Miami has yet to win a game in regulation.  It was only a matter of time before Lowry and DeRozan got their games going and I feel that Wednesday marked the proverbial "turning of the corner."  The Heat, as I've said before, remain far too centered around Dwyane Wade on offense and without their best defender (Hassan Whiteside), are in trouble on that end of the floor as well.  Much will be made of Coach Spo's excellent ATS record when facing elimination, but this team is not as good as past editions as there's no LeBron James anymore.  10* Toronto

10* Over Spurs/Thunder (8:35 ET):  It's a situation that few thought would be possible as San Antonio might not even make the Western Conference Finals. They face an elimination game tonight, on the road, and history is not kind them as under HC Greg Popovich they are just 2-10 straight up on the road in must-win playoff games. So that has me a little trepidacious taking them as a short favorite, but at the same time it would be a mistake to count this team out.  Therefore, we turn to the total. I've been right side of the Over/Under three times already in this series and here I'm calling for the highest scoring game since the opener as San Antonio should bounce back from a rather dreadful 39.8% shooting performance in Game 5. Take the Over.

Defensively, we know what the Spurs are all about. They were #1 in efficiency - by a wide margin - in the regular season.  In the playoffs, they are giving up an average of just 90.7 points per game.  But that number is somewhat skewed due to facing a severely undermanned Memphis team in Round 1.  The Thunder have beaten that same average in every game in this series and were of course #2 in the league in offensive efficiency during the regular season (obviously trailing Golden State).  The Thunder average 109.7 PPG for the year and while they've broken 100 just one time in the series, that time was the last home game.  The Spurs allow roughly five more points per game on the road than they do at home.

However, as alluded to above, the driving force behind this Over play is the fact that I'm projecting San Antonio to shoot significantly better here than they did in Game 5.  Something to note is that they were actually 8 of 18 from three-point range Tuesday, which means they were only 27 of 70 (38.5%) on two-point attempts, a shockingly poor performance. This is a team that shoots above 48 percent for the year.  They haven't been at or above that number since the blistering Game 1 performance when they shot better than 60% en route to 124 points and a blowout victory. That might seem like "forever ago" now, but this team averages more than 103 PPG.  OKC is 6-1 Over as a home dog of three points or less.  10* Over Spurs/Thunder

10* Golden State (10:35 ET):  With the return of Steph Curry, this series is all but over. Tonight, I'll not only call for the Warriors to advance, but to do so in rather emphatic fashion. Losing Game 4 all but sealed the Blazers' fate as this has not been a great road team this season (just 17-29 straight up) and they've been outscored by almost five points per game with the rest of the competition obviously not even close to Golden State's level.  Furthermore, Portland is just 12-28 ATS its last 40 games in Oakland, including 1-6 ATS the L3 seasons.  Lay the points. 

Curry set a record for most points ever scored by a player in overtime w/ 17 in Game 4 as the team overcame an early 16-2 hole to not only win, but cover the spread as well.  I had the Warriors, so I was certainly happy to see that. Yes, it took a vintage performance from the MVP, but if Golden State is able to still cover in that situation, you have to like their chances here as they return home for Game 5.  They are now 44-2 at home this year (won Games 1 and 2 by double digits - w/o Curry) and the average margin of victory is +13.7 points per game.   Portland has been a road underdog of this size only one time this year and you guessed it, it was here.  They lost that game (on March 11th) by 16 points.

Even playing without Curry for the vast majority of the time, Golden State is still winning by an average of 12.4 points per game in the playoffs.  They've been the second most efficient offense (1.12 points per possession) and as I've said all season, their defense is very underrated as they are also second in terms of efficiency there during the postseason.  Portland actually has a negative scoring differential in the playoffs and after playing their best in the last two games and only coming away w/ a split (Curry didn't play when they won), it's tough to like their chances here given the opponent.  10* Golden State

8* Toronto (8:05 ET):  The fact that the Raptors have been outscored in the postseason (-1.4 PPG) probably does not bode well for them moving forward, but nevertheless I feel that there have been multiple instances of them "snatching defeat from the jaws of victory" in recent games. One such time was Game 4, their second overtime loss of this series.  Ironically, that was the first game of the series where they did NOT have a halftime lead, but they were up by nine with just a little over six minutes to go in regulation. Now only 1-7 ATS their last eight games overall, at least they are back home where they have outscored opponents by roughly six points per game over the course of the year (36-11 straight up). I'll call for them to regain the series lead and cover w/ room to spare.

It was pretty brutal to see the Raptors "give away" the cover in overtime Monday night.  "Give away" might sound like a strong phrase, but consider the Heat were never "in the money" until the final seconds of OT.  They also never led, save for 13 seconds, in the fourth quarter. Despite the win, Miami remains far too Dwayne Wade-centric as the rest of the team shot a pretty dreadful 23 of 56 from the floor.  The Heat have also been pretty horrible from three-point range the L2 games (5 of 33), including 1 of 15 in Game 4, and keep in mind those were both home games!  On the road, the team's scoring average dips to 96.3 points per game and remember they are w/o Hassan Whiteside, who is a game-changer on the defensive end.

When Terrance Ross is your leading scorer with only 14 points on 4 of 10 shooting and you still almost win on the road, I think you should actually feel pretty good about yourself in the next game. That's the situation here for the Raptors, who continue to get next to nothing from their two All-Stars, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. However, here at home, I think one or both are more apt to turn things around.  Meanwhile, Wade was only 7 of 17 for 17 points the last game here in Toronto, a 96-92 Raptors win.  Miami has a losing record on the road this season, having been outscored by an average of two points per game. 8* Toronto

8* Under Thunder/Spurs (8:05 ET): As you already know, I've had a great deal of success in this series. Oklahoma City is coming off a 111-97 win in Game 4, which was easily their best showing of the four games so far. But if this season has taught us anything it's to expect a bounce back from San Antonio here as save for a relatively meaningless end of the season losing streak, they have been deadly off a SU loss.  They are 14-2 in this situation (11-5 ATS), winning by an average of 14.5 points per game. However, I'm actually a little leery of laying all these points and instead am going to play the total. Coming off the first game all series where BOTH sides shot relatively well, I can't help but think we'll be seeing fewer points scored in Game 5. Therefore, I'm on the Under.

  The key to San Antonio's ability to bounce back from a loss this season seems to be them refocusing on the defensive end. They've allowed an average of only 90.3 PPG in this situation and that includes a 100-96 win in Game 3 where I was on the Under as well (play cashed by a few points).  What makes me even more confident in taking the Under here (compared to Gm 3) is that the Spurs are at home where they give up only 90.4 PPG for the year.  This was of course the #1 team in the league in terms of defensive efficiency during the regular season and they've posted a near-identical rating so far in the playoffs.  By the way, the Under is 26-12-2 this season when the Spurs failed to cover the spread in their previous game.

  Oklahoma City got 41 points from Kevin Durant in Game 4 and shot better than 50 percent as a team.  I reckon that we'll see both of those number go down tonight.  The Thunder scored 66 points in the second half of Game 4 (shot 57 percent), which is a lot against any team, but especially vs. the Spurs.  The good news is that San Antonio simply has not allowed 100+ pts in B2B games very often.  In fact, that's happened only five times all year! When talking about the Spurs on offense, they seem to have stagnated as their number of assists continues to go down with each game in the series and relative to the other teams left in the playoff field, the three-pointer is not as big a weapon.  The Thunder have allowed less than 100 PPG in the playoffs (98.6 PPG) and are 9-5 Under as an underdog this season.  I find it interesting that the O/U line came down half a point despite the overwhelming number of bets being on the Over (about 80%).  So, that's a sign "sharp money" is on the Under here and I am too.  8* Under Thunder/Spurs

10* Golden State (10:35 ET): The Warriors actually finished behind the Spurs in terms of efficiency rating during the regular season (+11.8 to +11.6), but thanks to San Antonio losing last night the defending champs now clearly have the best playoff resume w/ a +15.9 efficiency rating (San Antonio is +12.3).  Keep in mind they've basically been w/o Steph Curry for the duration of the postseason, so I'm still not concerned that he likely won't be returning for Game 4 tonight against Portland. This is Golden State off a loss, a role they are 10-0 straight up in this season w/ the average margin of victory coming by 15.8 points per game.

Game 3 here in Portland was clearly the Warriors' worst outing of this postseason as they were beaten 120-108 as 2.5-pt chalk.  Their only other playoff loss came by a single point in Houston and that was largely a result of a poorly officiated finish.  There were a few things that stood out to me from Game 3, one being that Golden State made only 10 free throws on 17 attempts (Portland was 23 of 29).  The Blazers also connected on 56.7% of their three-point attempts (17 of 30).  Finally, Damian Lillard scored 40 points.  I do not anticipate seeing "history repeat itself" in any of those departments tonight.  Keep in mind that Portland has actually been outscored in the postseason.

The Warriors are more than just Curry.  They have Klay Thompson, who has already made 36 three-pointers in eight games. That number actually breaks Curry's record (set last year) for most three-pointers made in a team's first eight games of a postseason run.  Don't forget Draymond Green either. So far in this series, he is averaging 25.7 points, 12 rebounds and 8.6 assists per game.  That's "LeBron-like" and other than simply "playing out of their minds" like they did on Saturday, I do not believe the Blazers have an adequate answer.  Yes, Portland is a strong home team (32-13 SU this season), but not only are the Warriors a perfect 10-0 SU off a loss this year, they have gone 6-3-1 ATS in those games.  10* Golden State

8* Toronto (8:05 ET):  After the Raptors let me down in both Games 1 and 2, I turned to the total for Game 3 and came away with a (narrow) win on the Under. And wouldn't you know it; Toronto also pulled off the outright win, 95-91 as 5.5-pt pups. That snapped a six-game ATS slide dating back to Game 4 of the Indiana series, but I still believe that unlike Round 1, there is some value (based off the regular season) on Toronto here. They were a better team than Miami over the course of 82 games and even during the six-game ATS losing streak, there were instances where they probably "should have" covered (like Gm 7 vs. Indiana).  All three games in this series have been decided by six points or less (two in overtime), so I'll take the points.

The big difference for Toronto in Game 3 clearly was the 33 points from Kyle Lowry, who previously had been struggling badly this postseason.  Consider that Lowry scored only 25 pts - combined - in the first two games of the series. He had been shooting just 31 percent over from the field in the playoffs, so hopefully that (Game 3) was a sign of things to come. I think that for a player of his caliber to endure such a shooting slump was a bit odd and he was eventually due to turn things around.  I hope the same can now be said for fellow backcourt mate DeMar DeRozan, who is just 15 of 41 from the floor the last two games.  By the way, the Raptors are now 17-9 ATS as underdogs this season, including 14 outright wins in the role.

The big news for Game 4 is that both teams will be w/o their respective big men - Hassan Whiteside for Miami and Jonas Valanciunas for Toronto - as both were injured and lost for the series in Game 3.  I think that the Whiteside injury matters more as don't forget the Heat are also w/o Chris Bosh.  His absence affects the team most on the defensive end as he led the league in blocked shots (3.7 per game), but Whiteside has also been a "double-double" guy in the playoffs (12 points, 10.9 rebounds) in the playoffs. Provided the starting backcourt of Lowry and DeRozan can both play a good game, the Raptors have more scoring options left than Miami, who was far too "Dwyane Wade-centric" in Game 3. 8* Toronto

10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET):  After the Spurs absolutely destroyed the Thunder in Game 1 (won 124-91), the last two games of the series have been nail-biters w/ OKC taking Game 2 in San Antonio (98-97 as 7.5-pt dogs) and then San Antonio regaining the homecourt advantage with a 100-96 win and cover in Game 3.  Personally, I’m a perfect 3-0 in this series having cashed the Over in Game 1, OKC outright in Gm 2 and the Under in Game 3.  Tonight for Game 4, I’m back on the Thunder, who I believe are a tremendous value here at home in what is basically a “must-win” spot.  This team is 34-11 SU at home this year (including playoffs) and only once have they dropped B2B home games all year (right after the All-Star Break). 

Oklahoma City only shot 41.5% from the floor in Game 3, yet still almost won. Both teams made 10 three-pointers, but the difference is that the Thunder attempted 30 to the Spurs’ 19. I have to imagine that we’ll see improvement here from the OKC offense, which shoots at a 47.5% clip for the season while averaging 109.8 points per game. Despite struggling offensively in two of the three games in this series, the Thunder still are third in the league in efficiency during the postseason (1.11 points per possession). They were #2 in efficiency during the regular season (trailing only Golden State). 

San Antonio was held to just 20 points inside the paint in Game 3, its lowest total for any playoff game in the last 15 years. They have raised their three-point percentage somewhat dramatically here in the postseason and I anticipate that percentage soon regressing to the mean.  Something else to keep in mind is that the Spurs have been held to an average of just 98.5 points the last two games after scorching the Thunder in Game 1.  When leading in a playoff series, Greg Popovich’s team is just 9-10 ATS the L3 seasons. Meanwhile, OKC is 5-2 ATS when down in a playoff series including the Game 2 outright win.  The Thunder know that if they lose here, the series is basically over, so I anticipate them responding accordingly. 10* Oklahoma City

10* Cleveland (3:35 ET):  It would certainly appear as if this series is “all over but the shouting” at this point considering that not only can Atlanta not seem to beat Cleveland (10 straight losses to them!), but the manner in which Game 3 went down. Trailing by as many as 11 in the second half, the Cavs stormed back by outscoring the Hawks 36-17 in the fourth quarter, including a 22-5 run to end the game, as the three-point barrage continued (now 46 made the L2 games!) w/ Channing Frye of all players joining the fray this time (went 7 for 9 on Friday). Cleveland just seems to match up well vs. Atlanta and I’ll call for this series to end in a sweep w/ the favorite covering Game 4 with “room to spare.” Lay the points.

Atlanta is now 7-24 ATS its last 31 second round games.  That’s pretty indicative of where this franchise is “at” in this point in time and really been for much of its recent existence.  They simply cannot compete with Cleveland as every game in this series has been decided by double digits and down 0-3, I see little reason to expect the Hawks to come out and play hard this afternoon.   During the 10-game losing streak to Cleveland, they’ve lost by double digits eight times.  Consider that they made 16 three-pointers of their own on Friday and still lost the game by double digits.

Cleveland’s offensive efficiency has been breathtaking in the playoffs as they are averaging an amazing 1.18 points per possession. This is of course due to the incredible marksmanship we’ve seen from three-point range so far and while it’s probably unsustainable, Atlanta has yet to demonstrate any ability to stop it.  Also, there’s the fact that when a LeBron James team is up three games to none in a series (happened 10 times), never has that series lasted more than five games and eight of them have ended in sweeps. The Hawks are only 9-15 ATS as underdogs this year and with Cleveland outscoring its opponents by 12 points per 100 possessions this postseason, this line is simply too low.  10* Cleveland

8* Golden State (8:35 ET): For the record, it appears as if Steph Curry will not be making his return the court here despite the fact that there has been a three-day break in the series. No matter, the Warriors have already beaten the Blazers twice by double digits. While it’s true that those games did take place in Oakland, the fact is Portland simply is not good enough to compete even at home.  Golden State is now 6-1 ATS in the playoffs, outscoring teams by 16.5 points per game all while receiving minimal contributions from Curry.  This is a good value considering it will only be the third time all season that Golden State has been asked to lay three points or less on the road.

The Warriors defense is vastly underrated. In fact, they lead all team in the playoffs in terms of efficiency, giving up just 92.1 points per 100 possessions.   In the regular season, they ranked fourth in the league in defensive efficiency.  In this series, Portland’s shooting improved a little bit from Game 1 to Game 2, but they wound up scoring fewer points anyway.  Though Blazers fans will attempt to “hang their hat” on the fact that they dealt the Warriors a rare loss here during the regular season, the bottom line is they are just 3-10 ATS the L13 meetings. Also, speaking of efficiency, Portland is being outscored by 4.5 points per 100 possessions in the postseason. Toronto is the only other team remaining in the playoffs that can claim to have a negative efficiency rating.

Game 2 saw Portland take a double-digit lead in the first half and they still ended up losing the game by double digits.  In fact, they led by 11 entering the fourth quarter. This is an ominous sign.  The team is 1-6 ATS in the second round of the playoffs the last two years, which is reminiscent of Atlanta and indicative of where those two particular franchises are at.  Remember that the Blazers got to the second round in large part because of the massive amount of injuries suffered by the Clippers.  Only 3-8 ATS their last 11 games overall, the Blazers have lost four times in the playoffs by double digits already.  They are simply not in the Warriors’ class.  8* Golden State

10* Under Raptors/Heat (5:05 ET):  Even with the benefit of overtime, Game 2 of this series still stayed Under the total.  Game 1 needed overtime to just barely go Over the total. At the end of regulation, there has been 180 and 172 total points scored respectively.  Thus, the number for Game 3 still looks far too high, particularly considering the way Toronto’s top players continue to shoot the ball.  Furthermore, the Under has clearly been the way to go with both teams lately as Toronto is 8-2 Under its last 10 games and Miami is 6-1 Under its last seven games.  Take the Under here.

In the playoffs, the Raptors are averaging only 93.1 PPG.  They’ve been right on that average the last five games. By now, I’m sure you know what ills them.  Their top two scorers during the regular season – Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan – have been downright dreadful.  That duo has combined to shoot a woeful 32.5% from the field.  Lowry in particular has been awful. He’s shooting just 37.5% in the paint and is 9 for 57 from three-point range.  As a team, Toronto’s FG% is only 40.3 and that includes 27.3 from three-point range.  They are dead last among all remaining playoff teams in offensive efficiency.

Miami was one of the better defensive teams in the league during the regular season (7th).   That’s the driving force behind the fact that the Under is 53-37 in all of their games this season.  So far, they are giving up just 91.6 PPG in the playoffs and over the last five games, they are below that number.  Not to be outdone, Toronto is allowing only 94.4 PPG in the playoffs. The Under is 5-1 for them when they are a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points.  The overwhelming majority of tickets written on the total of this game (as of Friday night) are on the Over, yet the number has actually come down a point. That’s something certainly to consider.  10* Under Raptors/Heat

10* Under Spurs/Thunder (9:35 ET):  Man, it seems like forever ago that these teams last played, doesn't it? In case you forgot, the Thunder took Game 2 outright, 98-97 as 7.5-pt underdogs, handing the Spurs just their second home loss of the season (Warriors were the only other team to do it).  The game stayed Under as well, albeit just barely.  Then again, we were "due" for a low-scoring game after the Spurs shot better than 60% in Game 1 and scored 124 points.  After the long layoff between games, I envision another low-scoring affair taking place tonight, so I'm on the Under.

San Antonio was of course the #1 defensive team in the league during the regular season.  Off a loss, they are giving up an average of just 90.4 PPG.  They've maintained a strong defensive rating in the playoffs (#2 in efficiency), allowing just 92.9 points per 100 possessions and 85.7 points per game.  Granted, defending Oklahoma City is a lot tougher than defending what was a injury-riddled Memphis squad, but still, the Thunder failed to break 100 points in either of the first two games. 

OKC is just 11 for 42 from three-point range in the series, which won't cut it, and San Antonio allows just 32.9% shooting from three-point range for the season.  Just because they are back home does not necessarily mean the Thunder will score more as remember they were held to only 84 points by Dallas in one of the three home games in Round 1.  The Under is a perfect 3-0 this season for them, at home, when the total is 200 to 204.5.   The Under is also 24-17 in all road games for San Antonio this year. 10* Under Spurs/Thunder

8* Atlanta (7:05 ET):  The Hawks are coming off an absolutely humiliating loss in Game 2 as they allowed Cleveland to make a NBA-record 25 three-pointers and wound up trailing by more than 40 points at one juncture.  The 123-98 final score from Wednesday night doesn't even begin to tell the whole story as the Cavs led 35-20 after the first quarter and Atlanta never got any closer.  Nothing is even for certain, but I'm pretty confident that Cleveland will not shoot the ball as well tonight (how could they?) as they were 55.6% from three-point range on 45 attempts.  The scene does shift to Atlanta now and I feel the home team is a solid value, taking points, off a blowout loss.

Going back to LY's Eastern Conference Finals, the Hawks have now lost to the Cavs nine consecutive times. At some point, this streak has to come to an end.  What's really remarkable about Cleveland's offensive performance from the other night is that Atlanta ranked second in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season (trailing only San Antonio).  The Cavs are now averaging an insane 1.18 points per possession in the playoffs, a number that I expect to start coming down moving forward. Consider that they are currently averaging six more points per 100 possessions than the Warriors, Thunder and Spurs.   Here at home, the Hawks allow just 96.8 points per game.

Atlanta's shooting has been pretty bad during the playoffs (41.8%), but I expect that number to start going up.  When it comes to defensive efficiency, Cleveland is actually the worst team left in the field as even after Game 2, they are allowing 7.4 more points per 100 possessions than is Atlanta. The Hawks are a good home team (30-14 straight up) and they are outscoring visitors by an average of 6.6 PPG this year. They won all three first round home games, two of them by double digits and in the third led by as many as 19 points.  8* Atlanta

10* Toronto (8:05 ET):  Though they finally made it out of the first round (first time since '01!), this has hardly been a great postseason for the Raptors. They've been outscored by 4.5 points per 100 possessions, tying Portland for the worst such mark among teams still playing. For a second time in as many series, they dropped Game 1 at home, this time losing in overtime to the Heat, 102-96, but only after a miraculous Kyle Lowry half-court heave went in at the end of regulation. That's actually a lot better than how they performed in Game 1 of the Indiana series where they lost by 10 points. Of course, what I'm going to point to here is the fact they came back to win Game 2 against the Pacers by double digits. It'll be a case of "deja vu all over again" tonight. Lay the short number.

It's pretty amazing that Lowry hit that half-court shot considering how he's shot the ball so far in the postseason. He was just 3 for 13 from the floor in Game 1, including 1 of 6 from three-point range, dropping his overall shooting percentage to a rather abysmal 30.6% in the playoffs. That's the worst postseason shooting percentage by any NBA player w/ at least 50 attempts - ever - according to the Elias Sports Bureau.  I feel bad for Lowry because he's simply a much better player than this. Of course, DeMar DeRozan hasn't helped matters by shooting just 33 percent himself. Still, despite their top two scorers struggling so mightily, Toronto has gotten to this point. They led Game 1 at halftime, were up big in Game 7 against Indiana (before blowing the cover) and even led at half in an eventual Game 6 loss to the Pacers.  Provided Lowry and DeRozan turn things around, the Raptors should be able to make a series of this.

The key for Miami in Game 1 was that they shot 72.7% from three-point range (8 of 11) while Toronto was 23.8% (5 of 21).  I am envisioning a little "regression to the mean" here for the Heat, who are 3-7 SU and ATS this season when on a three-game win streak. Meanwhile, there's only one way to go for the Raptors and it's "up" as during this 0-5 ATS streak of theirs, they're averaging only 90.6 PPG, which is well below their season average. Here at home, they remain +5.9 PPG for the year while Miami's YTD scoring average on the road is -2.0 PPG.  10* Toronto

8* Atlanta (8:05 ET):  Though they fell behind by as many as 18 in the second half of Game 1, the Hawks were by no means "blown out" as they actually stormed back to take the lead in the fourth quarter, albeit by only a point.  But a win of any kind will do us just fine here as would a close game.  The final margin may have been 11 points in Monday's series opener, but that was with Atlanta shooting only 37.9% from the floor, including 11 of 34 from three-point range (missed many wide-open looks). I can't imagine them shooting that poorly again, thus the points look attractive here in Game 2 as Atlanta certainly is "due" to beat Cleveland at least once, aren't they?

The Cavs are the only team that has yet to lose a game in the playoffs, but none of their five wins have really come in a blowout fashion.  They did beat Detroit by 17 in Game 2 of their first round series, but even that was just a two-point game at halftime. They also made 20 three-pointers, an NBA record at the time (which Golden State broke just a few days later), in that one. Cleveland's over-reliance on the three-pointer is a little bit troubling, though it's worked for them thus far. But there's really no denying that this team has generally been overpriced for most of this season as they're only 34-43 ATS when laying points, not to mention 10-19 ATS off three consecutive victories and 14-20 ATS off a double digit win.

In my own personal power rankings, Atlanta ended up grading out as the second best team in the Eastern Conference by season's end (Cleveland was obviously #1).   The gap between them and the Cavs was not as great as the linesmakers seem to think it is, so the value here is on the dog.  Maybe Dennis Schroeder doesn't match his 27 pts for Game 1, but the trio of Jeff Teague, Paul Milsap and Al Horford basically have to improve after going a combined 12 of 41.  Cleveland has its issues defensively, namely that Kyrie Irving can't stay in front of anybody.  Kevin Love also appeared to hurt his shoulder late in Game 1, which is a bit of an ominous sign.  The Hawks did everything right in Game 1, except make shots, and I anticipate they'll make more of those in Game 2. 8* Atlanta

10* Under Blazers/Warriors (10:35 ET):   Five times these teams have played this season. All five games have gone Over the total. In fact, going back two full seasons, 10 of the last 12 Blazers-Warriors matchups have gone Over, including seven in a row.  So history certainly won't be on our side Tuesday night when the Under is the play for Game 2. But I feel that the "law of averages" is with us.  Golden State is of course without its best player and Portland simply isn't a very good road team. Thus, I feel it is highly unlikely that we'll be seeing as many points here as we did in Game 1.  Take the Under.

With Curry sidelined at least until Saturday (Game 3), other players on the Warriors are going to have to step up and in Game 1 that clearly was Klay Thompson, who finished with 37 points on 14 of 28 shooting, which includes 7 of 14 from three-point range.  I do not believe he will be able to duplicate that kind of performance tonight.  Note that the last time Thompson was coming off a 30+ pt performance, he followed it up w/ only 17 points and missed all seven three-point attempts he took.  (That was Game 3 vs. Houston). As a team, GSW scored 37 points in the first quarter of Game 1, had 65 pts by halftime and never really was in danger. But without Curry's 30.1 points per game, I just don't see them being that prolific again on the offensive end.

Portland shot just 40.2 percent from the floor in Game 1, yet still ended up scoring 106 points. That speaks to the pace Golden State plays at, but the game also became a little more "wide-open" due to the large lead that the Warriors enjoyed throughout. Assuming this one is a little closer, the number of possessions should decrease.  The Blazers simply aren't a good road team (17-28 straight up) and their scoring average drops roughly six points per game on the road compared to at home.  The Under is 6-3 for both of these teams over their last nine games, respectively. 10* Under Blazers/Warriors

10* Toronto (8:05 ET):  All things considered, I'm actually a little bit surprised that the Raptors are the favorites to win this series (-140). Sure, they have the home court edge, but Miami is the more marquee team and certainly had a much "easier" Game 7 win in the first round. So, I'm not surprised that 88% of the bets to win this series are on the Heat. But, that being said, it still took seven games for the Heat to eliminate the Hornets, the same number it took the Raptors to dispatch of the Pacers. Bettors probably still have the proverbial "bad taste" in their mouths from the way Toronto blew the cover in their Game 7 (outscored 20-11 in the 4Q), but in my opinion that has created an opportunity where there's value on them here. Lay the points.

Miami had no problems covering the spread in their Game 7 victory over Charlotte as they prevailed 106-73 as 6.5-pt favorites. They led the entire way as clearly the Hornets were "not ready for primetime."  I think a lot of people still feel the same way about Toronto, who is in the second round of the playoffs for only the second time in franchise history. But I think it's important to point to the home court advantage here as Miami did lose two of three in Charlotte in the first round and is just 21-23 SU in all road games this year. Toronto, meanwhile, is 35-10 SU at home while outscoring opponents by 6.1 PPG.

If the Raptors are to advance to their first Eastern Conference Final, they will certainly need better play from their starting backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Fortunately, it is highly unlikely that the duo can play any worse than they did against Indiana. Incredibly, Toronto is just the second team in playoff history to win a series in which its two top scorers were both below 33 percent shooting.  Those numbers almost HAVE to go up, don't they?  I feel that the Raptors played a lot better in their last two games than what the final scores say as the actually led Indiana (on the road) at halftime in Game 6, then were up by as many as 15 in the second half in Game 7.  Note that in their three first round losses, the Heat were held under 90 points. Toronto won three of the four regular season matchups vs. Miami, including both here at home (one by 20 pts!). Miami has been held under 47% shooting in each of the last six matchups. The Raptors are the deeper team here and should have an edge in bench scoring throughout the series.  With more people likely to take the Heat, I like the home team here in Game 1. 10* Toronto

10* Oklahoma City (9:35 ET):  The Thunder are off a humiliating 124-92 loss in Game 1 (as 6.5-pt underdogs) as they were beaten "from pillar to post."   The Spurs scored 43 points in the first quarter and not only never trailed, but got to enjoy a double digit lead from the midway point of the 1Q through the rest of the game. Greg Popovich's team shot a blistering 60.7% overall from the floor, including 9 of 15 (60%) from three-point range, but it's going to be very difficult (if not impossible) for them to match those percentages again tonight. I see OKC coming out very motivated here after suffering what was just their six double digit loss of the season. What's impressive is that they are 4-1 straight up off the previous five. Also, teams coming off a 25+ point loss in the NBA playoffs are 67% ATS since 2005. Take the points.

I will readily admit that the Thunder have never fared well here in San Antonio during the postseason. Their last four such visits here have all resulted in double digit losses, those coming by an average of 28 points per game.  But this team is too good to get blown out in back to back games.  I already mentioned that they are 4-1 straight up this season coming off a double digit loss. For them to be an underdog in the situation is rare (happened only once before) and note that off their ONLY 20+ point loss in the regular season (at Cleveland), the Thunder bounced back with a double digit win their next time out. I won't call for an outright win here, but it will be a close game, judging by OKC's history.

I am simply of the opinion that you often need to "buy low" and "sell high" whether it's regular season or the playoffs (this goes for any sport).  There's simply no way San Antonio will be as good as they were in Game 1 while there's also no way that Oklahoma City will be as bad.  Remember that the Thunder have two of the four best players in the sport on their roster and they were just 11 of 35 from the floor in Gm 1 (0 for 5 from three-point range) while totaling only 30 points. I just can't imagine Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook struggling that much again and note the Spurs are just 23-24 ATS this season when off a double digit victory. 10* Oklahoma City

10* Toronto (8:05 ET): To call tonight's Game 7 vs. Indiana "the most important game" in Raptors history is not hyperbole. This is supposed to be the year that they finally make a playoff run. Who knows what will happen to the franchise, which has won just ONE playoff series in its history (and that was all the way back in 2001!), if it loses here. Fortunately, I don't think fans "North of the border" are going to have to worry about that. Coming off an awful second half in Game 6 at Indiana (remember, I had the Pacers), I expect Toronto to rebound (both figuratively and literally) and advance, covering this spread w/ "room to spare."

For Game 6, I cited Indiana having home court advantage as a major reason for taking them laying only a small number.  Now, that advantage is gone. We know about the success home teams have had in the past in Game 7's in the NBA playoffs as they've won 80% of the time (97-24) including a 6-1 record the past two years. Now, I know what you're thinking.  That one loss was Toronto (to Brooklyn) back in '14.  But that was a more veteran Nets squad that they had to deal with there. The Pacers are just 20-24 SU in road games this season.  It should also be pointed out that of the now four home games in this series, this will be smallest number Toronto has had to lay.  They've outscored opponents by 6.2 PPG this seaosn while going 30-14 straight up.  We're getting a good value here.

It's no secret as to why the Raptors have struggled to put away the Pacers in the series. There's a direct correlation with how their starting backcourt of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry have performed, which is to say they've both been very subpar so far.  The two combined for only 18 pts in Game 6 and are averaging 14.6 fewer points per game in the series compared to the reguar season.  But despite losing Game 6 by 18 points and DeRozan/Lowry struggling so much, the Raptors actually led that game at halftime.  I find it hard to believe that Toronto won't improve upon their 36.7% shooting from the last game and it bears mentioning that Indiana has won just one of its last seven visits here (Game 1).  10* Toronto

10* Under Blazers/Warriors (3:30 ET): Handicapping this series is a little difficult due to the Steph Curry injury.  Golden State clearly didn't need the league's presumptive MVP to prevail in Round 1, but then again they were facing a Rockets team that didn't know the meaning of defense and was falling apart at the seams. As for Portland, they too got a bit of a "big break" as the Clippers lost their two best players to injury in the same game and that allowed them to take the series in just six games.  I don't have a great read on the side here, but I do envision Game 1 of this second round matchup being low-scoring, at least by Warriors' standards.  Take the Under.

The last three games of the Warriors' first round series all stayed Under and that's with them scoring 121 and 114 in the last two.  Playing without Curry, the reigning NBA champs turned up the defense, holding the Rockets to just 91.2 PPG on 38.6% shooting.  Before they were able to take the final two games against a severely undermanned Clippers squad, Portland had struggled offensively in the first four games of the series.  In fact, they averaged just 92.5 PPG.  They'd also seen six straight Unders before no longer having to deal with Chris Paul or Blake Griffin.  Portland is a team whose scoring average dips rather dramatically on the road as they average nearly six full points per game fewer than what they average at home.

These teams met four times during the regular season and all four games did manage to go Over the total.  In fact, nine of the last 11 head to head matchups between these two have gone Over, including six straight. But remember who's NOT playing here. That would obviously be Curry, who averaged 32.5 points in just 29.5 minutes per game (54.1% shooting) vs. Portland during the regular season.  Yes, Golden State can still beat Portland w/o him, but it's going to be harder and we won't see them making anywhere close to their usual number of three-pointers (made 18 in three of four reg season games vs. Portland).  I also think that Warriors' defense with Shaun Livingston, and not Curry, on the court is vastly underrated.  10* Under Blazers/Warriors

8* Charlotte (1:05 ET):  I fear that the Hornets may have blown their chance at winning the series when they dumped Game 6 at home, losing 97-90 as two-point favorites. However, I've maintained throughout the series that they are the undervalued side here and I'm not deviating from that script here in Game 7.  They did win here in Miami, outright, in Game 5 (I had them).  The last four games of this series have all been low-scoring, so taking the points naturally seems like the way to go in this situation. I do think too many people are writing this this team off despite the fact that they posted a better net efficiency rating than Miami in the regular season. That's a mistake. So, I will be taking the points here.

Charlotte's defense, particularly when it comes to guarding the three-point line, is going to be the key to this game. In the three losses in this series, they've allowed Miami to shoot better than 50 percent from behind the arc and in the first two games of the series, the Heat were almost 58 percent overall from the floor.  But in the three games that the Hornets won, they held Miami to 42% or worse overall, including 33.3% from three-point range.  Thus, we will probably be able to determine pretty early on how this game is going to go. I'm willing to bank on the Hornets defense coming through here as over the last four games they've held the Heat to just 87.5 PPG. It's pretty tough for a favorite of this size to cover when averaging that few points per game.

It was pretty ridiculous to see Dwyane Wade make not one, but two three-pointers in the closing minutes of Game 6.  Consider that's two more than he had made previously in ALL of 2016!  Though Nic Batum's status remains up in the air, I'm still banking on Kemba Walker being the best player on the floor Sunday. He scored 37 points Friday night and is now averaging 25 PPG for the series. The edge that home teams enjoy in Game 7's is very real, but take note that this is the most points that the Heat have been asked to lay in any game this series.  It's a classic overlay, in my opinion.  8* Charlotte

10* Over Thunder/Spurs (8:35 ET):  With two Game 7's still to go (both will be played Sunday), the Under has been "taking names" so far in the NBA Playoffs with a 29-13 (69%) record. However, looking back to the regular season matchups between Oklahoma City and San Antonio, it does appear as if there's at least a little value in taking the Over.  I say that knowing full well that the Under cashed in three of the four matchups. However, only one of those saw fewer than 200 total points scored and that included the reg season finale for OKC, who sat both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.  (Yes, I know that game did go to overtime). With the Thunder's "dynamic duo" obviously in the lineup here, the O/U line is still lower than what it was for that reg season finale, not to mention several points lower compared to the other three matchups.  Take the Over.

Oklahoma City torched Dallas in the final three games of that series, scoring 131, 119 and 118 points.  This will obviously be a greater challenge and I don't anticipate them scoring nearly as much.  Kevin Durant might struggle against the Spurs, particularly when guarded by Kahwi Leonard, but there's still Russell Westbrook, who has averaged 22.5 points, 7.3 assists and 5.8 rebounds in 12 career playoff games vs. San Antonio.  Obviously, it's pretty rare to find OKC taking this many points, but history suggests a high-scoring game as they're 26-10 Over L36 times in the +6.5 to +9 range on the road. The Thunder finished the regular season ranked #2 in offensive efficiency, trailing only Golden State of course.

San Antonio was #1 in defensive efficiency, but lost in that is they were #3 in offensive efficiency.  Perhaps "better than ever," Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge have both stepped up at the offensive end at the same time the famous core of Duncan-Parker-Ginobili has slightly declined w/ age.  Leonard led the team in scoring w/ 21.2 PPG while Aldridge wasn't far behind at 18.0.  The team averages nearly 105 PPG at home this year and comes off a 116-pt effort in the series clincher vs. Memphis.  I think we'll see better overall shooting than you might think in this game. 10* Over Thunder/Spurs

8* Portland (10:35 ET):  It's now all over but the shouting for the Clippers, a team still reeling from the loss of both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. Portland has taken the last three games of this series, including Game 5 in Los Angeles, 108-98 as 2.5 pt chalk.  While the Clips are 10-3 against the spread this season when seeking revenge for a home loss, now they have to do so w/o their two best players, a near impossible task.  Plus, they are 0-4 ATS the L3 seasons as a road underdog of at least 9.5 points, which they are here.  The price range is justified given how depleted they are and I look for the Blazers to move on.  Lay the points.

In taking Portland the last time they were here at home (Game 4), I noted in my analysis just how strong they've been this year playing at the Moda Center. They're now 30-13 straight up with a point differential of almost six points per game.  Game 4 is of course where "it all went wrong" for the Clippers (losing both Paul and Griffin) and considering they averaged just 86 PPG in the two contests in Portland, with Paul and Griffin both playing most of the way, I just don't know where the scoring is going to come from tonight.  As a team, they've shot below 40 percent the last three games including 25.4 percent from three-point range.  Making matters worse for them is that Portland has gotten hot from three-point range the L2 games.

Here's a trend for you:  the Blazers are 17-3 ATS their last 20 home games with a total in the 195 to 199.5-point range.  There should be a tremendous sense of urgency here for the home team as they want to avoid having to go back to LA for Game 7.  Portland comes off its highest scoring game of the series, another bad sign for the Clippers.  I just can't make any case for the Clips to be competitive in this environment.  8* Portland

10* Indiana (7:35 ET):  This is a "do or die" situation for the Pacers, the very definition of a "must win" as they let one get away Tuesday night in Toronto and as a result are now facing elimination on their home floor.  They led most of the way in Game 5, by as many as 15 in the second half as a matter of fact, before things imploded and they ended up losing by three. Indiana did leave Toronto "with the cash" (covered as 7-pt dogs), but that's obviously a small consolation. Yet, it is indicative of the fact that the individual games in this series have been a little mispriced.  Twice the Pacers have been able to win outright, as dogs, by double digit margins. Tonight marks just the second time they've been favored in a game (lost the first) and given the circumstances, that's warranted. Lay the small number.

Paul George has already come out and stated that he's willing to "play all 48" (minutes) tonight, if need be. The fact that there have been two off days between games would seem to allow George to do that and playing w/ two days rest exactly seems to be the Pacers "sweet spot" as they are 12-4 against the spread in that role this season. Remember that this team has really "cleaned up" against conference foes this season, at least at the betting window where they are 35-22 ATS.   They might be just 4-5 ATS vs. Toronto, but this series has been relatively even to this point with the Raptors outscoring the Pacers by less than one point per game. Thus, it appears as if the value of home court advantage is being a little "undersold" in this one as Indiana is 27-16 SU on its own floor this season, outscoring teams by 3.9 PPG. 

There's a lot of pressure in this series on Toronto, who is trying to advance to the second round for just the second time in franchise history. You'd think that would breed a sense of urgency, but note the last game here in Indiana saw the Raptors come in w/ a 2-1 series lead and basically "mail in" the the game.  Though DeMar DeRozan broke out a bit in Game 5, the Raptors starting backcourt of he and Kyle Lowry has really struggled so far in this series.  As I said at the outset of the series, the Pacers are the far better defensive team here and they've held Toronto under 42 percent shooting in four of the five games. The Raptors' three-point shooting has been nothing short of atrocious (33 of 125). They are also just 1-3 ATS all-time when up in a playoff series. 10* Indiana

8* Atlanta (8:05 ET):  As you might be able to ascertain from this line, the oddsmakers are basically begging you to take Boston, who is off a horrible 110-83 loss in Game 5 and now faces a situation where they are playing to keep their season alive. I will not take the bait. Atlanta has been the better team for the vast majority of this series, only to twice blow leads of 16 points or greater and end up not covering. The first time was Game 1, which they still won, 102-101. The second was Game 4, which ended up being an overtime loss. The Celtics really miss their second-leading scorer, Avery Bradley in this series (lost for the season in Gm 1) and it shows.  I'll lay the points on the road.

If losing Bradley wasn't bad enough, leading scorer Isaiah Thomas left Game 5 with an ankle injury. He's currently listed as probable to play, but if not at 100 percent, then I just don't know where the Celtics' scoring comes from.  Remember that Atlanta ranked second in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season.  The Hawks seemed to "figure out" how to defend Thomas by double and even triple teaming him Tuesday and that resulted in Boston's top scorer shooting just 3 of 12 from the field before his early exit.  Keep in mind that as a team, the Celtics are averaging just 94.2 PPG in the series. While it might seem tempting to take them as a home dog, note their record in that role this season is only 2-4 straight up and 2-3-1 against the spread.

As good as Atlanta's been defensively in this series, it was the offense that keyed them to victory on Tuesday by scoring an incredible 70 points over an 18-minute span!  While some teams have a tendency to "phone one in" when up a game in a series, I do not believe that will be the case here with the Hawks - at all - as wrapping up this series ASAP should be a priority given that Cleveland is going to be well rested for Round 2.  Those anticipating a letdown off a big win best take note of some Hawks' history as the team is actually an incredible 50-29 ATS the L3 seasons when coming off a double digit win.  This series is over after tonight.  8* Atlanta

10* Over Rockets/Warriors (10:35 ET): Contrary to popular belief, those living in the Bay Area should not be preparing for Armageddon.  Yes, Steph Curry is going to be out for at least a couple weeks. But all the Warriors need is one win over the Rockets to advance and they may very well end up playing an even more injury-riddled Clippers team in the second round. Without Curry, I don't want to lay the points here, but I will turn to the total as any notion of Golden State's offensive production going down should put aside here as Houston is just dreadful defensively.  The Rockets allow 108.2 points per game on the road and that's while facing 28 other teams that don't have Curry either.  Take the Over. 

Playing without Curry for most of this series, Golden State has still found a way to average over 109 points per game and that number would probably be even higher were in not for the blowout nature of some of the games.  Case in point, they had scored 97 points through three quarters on Sunday in what ended up being an easy 121-94 win and cover. (I chose wisely in laying the points in Game 4).  The Warriors shot a series best 51.7% from the floor and set a new NBA playoff record w/ 21 three-pointers made and keep in mind that was with Curry shooting just 2 of 9, including 1 of 7 from three-point range. Golden State is going to find ways to score tonight and it won't be hard against the worst defensive team in the playoffs.

Of course, we will also need some help from Houston's offense to get what we want here.  Thankfully, I can't possibly see them being as bad as they were from three-point range in Game 4 where they missed 22 of 27 attempts.  The last two games have seen them go a horrific 16 of 63 from behind the arc. This is a team that averaged a respectable 34.5% on three-pointers during the regular season, so they should improve tonight.  Something else that should be mentioned is these two teams combined to miss 23 free throws in Game 4.  Golden State got to the line only 16 times and made just eight FT's. I expect their number of attempts to go way up here while the overall number of misses comes down. That should be instrumental in this one going Over the total.  10* Over Rockets/Warriors

10* Charlotte (8:05 ET): My initial assertion, that the Hornets were the better team in the regular season compared to the Heat, didn't look so smart after the first two games of this series.  Charlotte, who has never found any kind of playoff success, got rolled in Games 1 and 2 here in Miami, losing by a combined 44 points.  But things took quite the dramatic turn once the scene shifted to the Queen City as the Hornets returned the favor with a pair of wins where they were largely in control for most of the two games. Winning Game 4 by only a four-point margin might seem to suggest otherwise, but take note the Hornets led by as many as 18 in the second half and never trailed after the midway point of the second quarter. Back in Miami, they are a solid value. Take the points.

Offensively, it's been like night and day for the Heat when it comes to home and away. The first two games of the series saw them average 119 PPG on better than 57% overall shooting, while the two games in Charlotte saw them average only 82.5 PPG on 35.5% shooting.  I realize we're now back in South Beach (where the L10 Hornets-Heat matchups have all gone Over the total!), but I don't envision an automatic "return to form" here for Miami, let alone anything resembling what we saw in the first two games of the series.  The Heat have simply looked like the older team the L2 games and I don't mean that as a compliment.  With the Game 4 win and cover, Charlotte improved to 6-2 straight up and against the spread this season after allowing 85 pts or less in its previous game. 

Three-point shooting was huge for the Hornets during the regular season, but so far in this series they're below 24 percent. I do expect that number to start to rise. What has offset the three-point shooting woes is an ability to get to the FT line as not only is Charlotte +28 in attempts compared to Miami in the series, but they're also making their free throws (82.8%).  Furthermore, there is a chance that Nick Batum - the Hornets' best two-way player, returns tonight (gametime decision). Even without him, the Hornets bench has been able to outscore their Heat counterparts by an average of 15.7 points the L3 games. Again, Charlotte had the better efficiency rating of these two teams during the regular season. 10* Charlotte

10* Under Celtics/Hawks (8:35 ET):  Consider that Game 4 of this series stayed Under the total, despite overtime. As a result, the Game 5 total is lower, but not low enough from where I sit.  Three of the four games in this series have now stayed Under the total and we've seen the oddsmakers struggle to "keep up" even though they've decreased the line with each passing game. Note that Atlanta ranked second in the league (trailing only San Antonio) in defensive efficiency during the regular season and allows only 97.2 PPG here at home.  Boston's offense seems entirely dependent on Isaiah Thomas and while that worked for them in Games 3 and 4 at home, they averaged just 86.5 PPG in the first two games here in Atlanta. Take the Under.

Game 4 was tied 92-92 at the end of regulation as neither team shot the ball well. The Hawks attempted 100 shots in the game and made only 37 of them, so that's an easy percentage to figure out. They were again just awful from three-point range (12 of 43!), finishing the two games in Boston at 21 of 79 (26.5%).  You'd expect some improvement here in their return home, but truth be told they did not shoot the ball well from three-point range in the first two games of this series either; going 16 of 56. So, they're now just 37 of 135 from behind the arc against the Celtics, which is 27.4%.  The Under is now 64-39 in the Hawks L103 playoff games overall, including 46-24 in the first round. Other than Paul Milsap (45 points), the rest of the team scored only 59 points in Game 4. Milsap is highly unlikely to match that kind of production tonight.

Boston shot just 36.3% and 31.8% in the first two games here in Atlanta. They are of course w/o Avery Bradley, a significant loss as he averaged 12.3 points per game during the regular season, second most on the team.  After falling behind by 16 points early in the second half on Sunday, the Celtics went on to shoot 56.4% the rest of the way, a level they simply will be unable to match on the road.  With the overall shooting at just below 40% through four games (both teams combined), Under is the way to go here. 10* Under Celtics/Hawks

10* Toronto (6:05 ET):  Note that w/ no Western Conference games on tap, it's a bit of an early start time North of the border this evening. The Raptors and Pacers are tied at two games apiece in this series after Indiana won Gm 4 in convincing fashion, 100-83 as 1-pt dogs. They also took Gm 1 here in Toronto, 100-90 as seven-point pups and while I was on the dog there, it's going to be a different story here. Though the series is now even, none of the four individual games have been close. All games have been decided by double digits, so laying points shouldn't seem like much of an issue, plus there's the matter that Toronto is now 26-12 ATS the L38 meetings w/ Indiana here at home including 6-1 ATS L7. They are 12-3 ATS head to head w/ the Pacers overall the L3 seasons. 

Indiana is just 9-13 ATS coming off a SU win as a dog this season & 3-5 ATS after allowing 85 pts or less in its last game.  Toronto shot just 36.5% from the floor in Game 4, a number that you have to figure will improve tonight at home.  Now neither team, with the exception of the Pacers on Sunday, has shot better than 44% in any individual game of this series.  But Toronto could easily help itself by NOT missing nine free throws like they did in Game 4 and the starting backcourt of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan simply must be better as the duo shot a combined 8 of 27 from the floor, including 0 for 7 from three-point range. I think they will be better tonight. Also, the Raptors have enjoyed an advantage in rebounding in all four games and Jonas Valanciunas should have more than the six he pulled down Sunday.

Toronto is 33-10 SU at home this season with a point differential of +6.2 per game.  Indiana, who sports a losing (20-23) record, is -0.7 PPG on the road. So, while my personal power rankings might suggest that the Raptors are a tad bit overvalued in this spot, perhaps they are underrating the value of home court advantage. Credit Pacers HC Frank Vogel for making a change to his starting lineup for Game 4 (Myles Turner in for Lavoy Allen) and it working. But the Raptors will be ready for that tonight and I expect their best players to play better. 10* Toronto

10* Portland (10:35 ET):  Trailing 0-2 in the series, the Blazers "had to have" Game 3 here at home and they came through with a 96-88 win and cover, snapping a five-game ATS losing streak in the process. Of course, that victory will mean little in the "grand scheme of things" if they were to lose tonight in Game 4. I think it's curious that the Clippers come in favored by a slightly greater margin here compared to Saturday and while they may have an outstanding 20-5 ATS record as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points (7-1 this season), that trend will come to a halt here at the Moda Center where the home team is a very strong 29-13 straight up this season w/ a point differential of +5.8 PPG. Also, Portland is 26-10 ATS off a SU win as an underdog. Take the points.

After losing the first two games of the series by 20 and 21 points respectively, what changed for the Blazers in their Game 3 victory?  Well, for starters, the Clippers couldn't shoot to save their lives.  Just 40.9% overall from the field, Doc Rivers team missed 15 of its 18 three-point attempts, not to mention 10 of 23 free throws.  This line is simply moving the wrong way as the majority of teams that the Clippers have covered against as a road favorite in this range are bad teams that missed the playoffs altogether. As mentioned above, Portland has been a great home team throughout the year, particularly of late. They've won 10 of their last 11 home games with that one loss coming by only one point. The notion that the Clippers will bounce back here because of how the first two games played out is quite frankly misguided.

Another key to Saturday's victory was the Blazers' outstanding backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, who combined to score 59 points on 50% shooting.  In the first two games, they had combined for just 63 points on less than 35% shooting. So, again, you can see the effect home court has here. Portland averages 107.8 PPG at home for the season and they should still come out as the more desperate team here. 10* Portland

10* Over Cavaliers/Pistons (8:35 ET):  Game 3 of this series was well on its way to going Over the total (which is how I played it), that was until a 40-pt fourth quarter where Cleveland took control and felt content (as they should have) to “sit” on the ball and force Detroit into long possessions on the defensive end. Still though, LeBron and company have scored at least 100 pts in every game in this series and can now close things out Sunday w/ one more victory. The key will be whether or not the Pistons “show up” as no team has ever overcome a 3-0 series deficit and this group happens to be young and competing in their first postseason together. But they were a strong home team during the regular season and I think they’ll at least score enough to help this game finish Over the total.

Unless something changes between now and tipoff (and I don’t anticipate that it will), this will be the first time in the series that we have an O/U line below 200 points.  This bodes well if you believe in trends as Detroit is a perfect 8-0 Over this season, in home games, if the O/U line falls into the 195 to 199.5 point range.  Though they scored just 91 points here in Game 3, the Pistons do average 104.7 PPG at home for the season.  I suspect that they won’t be as bad as they were from three-point range (6 of 23) or the free throw line (68.4%) as they were Friday night. Consider that on two-point attempts, the team was an outstanding 30 of 51, nearly 60 percent.  Defensively, Cleveland had not held B2B opponents under 100 points since mid-March. 

As for the Cavs, I see little – if anything – being different for them on the offensive end in this game.  When Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love both contribute the way they have been the L3 games, this is a very difficult team to beat. Irving is averaging 26.3 PPG in the series and has been a problem for Detroit to defend all year long.  I’ve actually been more impressed with Love though, as he has posted double doubles (in points & rebounds) in all three games. LeBron James shot only 8 of 24 from the field in Game 3, so you have to figure that percentage goes up here.  As a team, the Cavs have made at least 12 three-pointers in every game in the series. 10* Over Cavaliers/Pistons

10* Boston (6:05 ET): It’s always worth taking note of public perception over the course of any playoff series and in the case of this one, there’s been a rather seismic shift. For the first two games, which took place in Atlanta, the public liked the dog (Boston) and came away with what some would say was a “fortunate” split as Gm 1 saw the Celtics rally back from a 19-pt deficit to “steal” the cover (but not win the game). Game 3 saw public opinion rather divided, but in what was an obvious “must win” for Boston, they came through with a 111-103 victory as three-point chalk.  Now, for Game 4, I’m a little surprised to find that the majority of bettors are taking the Hawks.  What I surmise is that those bettors are remembering how the first two games went and that the Celtics are without Avery Bradley. But, at home, Boston remains a strong value laying this small of a number.

There were two significant changes that took place for Boston in Game 3 compared to the first two games of the series. One is that they got to the free throw line more, a lot more. In fact, their 33 FT attempts in Game 3 were more than Games 1 & 2 combined (31). This is typical of when a series changes venues.  Note, as the road team, Atlanta got to the line only 21 times in Game 3 after a total of 51 attempts in the first two games at home.   The other major change was Isaiah Thomas, who went for 42 points on Friday night. I’m not sure that kind of individual performance can be counted upon again, but note the team does average 106.2 PPG here at home, for the season, and Atlanta’s defense significantly worsens when they are the road team. By the way, Boston did lead Game 3 by as many as 20 points, so the final score is a bit misleading.

It appears as if three-point shooting, as it so often is in today’s NBA, might be the key to winning games in this series. The Hawks did win Game 1 despite a dreadful 5 of 27 night from behind the arc, but came back in Game 2 to make 11 of 29 attempts. They regressed back to 25% (9 of 36) in Game 3 and I wouldn’t look for that number to go up very much this evening as Boston is holding teams to just 31.1% on 3-pt attempts at home this season. Meanwhile, after going a miserable 16 of 63 from 3-pt range themselves in the first two games, the Celtics were up to 11 of 32 in Game 3.  The fact that Thomas is not suspended today (despite blatantly hitting Atlanta’s Dennis Schroeder) looms large in handicapping this game. 10* Boston

8* Golden State (3:30 ET):  Houston pulled the upset in Game 3, winning 97-96 as 3.5-pt home dogs. The Warriors were of course without Steph Curry (he’ll be back on the floor today), but the game was not without controversy as afterwards the league basically admitted that the officials did an atrocious job down the stretch. There were five blown calls in the final two minutes alone, the most noteworthy being the Rockets’ James Harden getting away with a push off on Andre Iguodala on what turned out to be the game winning shot. I don’t see Houston getting that kind of “help” here in Game 4 and now they have to go back to dealing with Curry. The better team will reassert itself and take control of the series with a blowout victory here. Lay the points.

The first thing to take note of here is that the Warriors have not dropped back to back games all season long.  Off their nine regular season losses, the team had a scoring differential of +14.5 points per game.  They are the only team in league history never to lose B2B games in a regular season.  The second thing to take note of is, obviously, the return of Curry. Other than Marreese Speights of all people, Golden State has really struggled from three-point range the last two games.  Factoring out Speights, the team is just 25 percent from behind the arc. Curry, if you recall, was an incredible 5 of 7 from distance back in Game 1.  He changes the entire dynamic for the Houston defense, which of course isn’t very good to begin with.

Off a SU win as an underdog, the Rockets are just 4-9 against the spread.  This is a high number attached to this game, but remember that Houston is the worst defensive team left in the field (allow 106.3 PPG).  It’s a little surprising to see that the Warriors have shot only 43% in two of the three games in this series (Game 2 being the exception), but then again Curry’s absence led them to the dreadful 6 of 25 performance from three-point range that was touched on earlier in this analysis.  That percentage (24.0) was the team’s worst in its last 24 games, but the game now changes w/ Curry, a 45.4% shooter from 3-pt range, returning.  I have zero problem with this pointspread as you have to remember the Rockets are team that has been outscored over the course of the regular season while GSW was +11.6 in points per 100 possessions during the regular season.  8* Golden State

10* Over Thunder/Mavericks (8:05 ET):  Dallas offered little resistance in Game 3, allowing Oklahoma City to score a whopping 131 points in a blowout loss here at home. That was in stark contrast to recent defensive performances, most notably Game 2 where they held the Thunder to just 84 points in a stunning upset victory. In fact, the Mavericks had allowed fewer than 100 points in 10 of 11 games heading into Thursday. But they clearly had no answer for an OKC offensive attack that was led by Kevin Durant's 34 points. As a team, the Thunder shot 57.7 percent from the floor, including 15 of 27 from three-point range. The last six head to head meetings here in Dallas have all gone Over the total and I don't see this one being any different. Take the Over.

While we may not be able to count on OKC matching its outstanding output from Game 3, there's definitely room for improvement with Dallas, who has been just awful from three-point range in this series. In the three games, the Mavs are shooting just 15 of 60 (25 percent!) from behind the arc.  That's well below their season average, obviously, and furthermore this is a team that averages 104.3 points per game at home this season.  The Over is a perfect 4-0 for them when they are a dog of 6.5 to 9 points here at the American Airlines Center, so history is on our side. While a bit depleted, Dallas is certainly "due" to at least get back to average as they've topped 100 pts in only three of their last 12 games and those three have seen them score 101, 102 and 103 points.

As for Oklahoma City, we know what they are capable of offensively. They finished the regular season behind only Golden State in terms of offensive efficiency and come into tonight averaging an impressive 111.4 PPG, which is actually higher than their scoring average at home!  They are 10-2 Over this season as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. One thing holding them back, however, is the fact they also are allowing 106.1 PPG on the road this year.  For a team that regularly sees O/U lines north of 200 pts (avg O/U line this year in Thunder games is 212 pts!), the oddsmakers have been coming in "pretty low" this series. I say to look for another high scoring affair between these two tonight. 10* Over Thunder/Mavericks

10* Toronto (3:05 ET):  The demise of the Raptors appears to have been greatly exaggerated. Since dropping Game 1 of this series, at home, they've stormed back by posting B2B double-digit victories where they've held the Pacers to an average of just 86 points per game. Going back two full seasons, Toronto is now 12-2 ATS in 14 head to head matchups with Indiana and that includes a 6-1 ATS record on the road. After leading wire to wire in Game 2, the Raps essentially did the same thing in Game 3, so they've really taken control of things and keep in mind that's with their top two scorers, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan - both being subpar and inefficient. Indiana simply doesn't seem to have an answer for Toronto's better depth or interior dominance. I'll lay the small number here.

Toronto's starting backcourt (DeRozan & Lowry) shot a combined 15 of 63 from the floor in the first two games, including an odious 1 of 17 from three-point range. While still not up to par in Game 3, both players were a lot better as they each contributed 21 points. But the key for the Raptors in this series has clearly been Jonas Valanciunas, who is dominating the boards w/ an average of 16 rebounds per game. Valanciunas is the primary reason that Toronto has a +10.7 rebound (per game) edge in the series as well as outscoring Indiana by 13.3 PPG in the paint.  Additionally, defensive specialist DeMarre Carroll has shown why the team signed him away from Atlanta. In the two games that he's started (the last two), the Raptors defense has been significantly better. Indiana shot just 38.2% in Game 3 and scored a season-low 36 first half points.

While Toronto has been fortunate to have its supporting cast "step up" in the series, the same cannot be said for Indiana.  Paul George has seen his scoring decline with each passing game and Monta Ellis had only seven points on Thursday.  No one else has really been able to contribute offensively and with the Pacers getting dominated on the glass, I'm not sure who would be able to even fill that void. Those anticipating an Indiana bounce back will be sad to hear that the team is 4-12 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a home loss. 10* Toronto

8* San Antonio (9:35 ET): While traditionally a home team down 0-2 in the series and coming off a blowout loss might offer something in the way of value (especially taking this many points), the fact is little case can be made at this point for Memphis being even remotely competitive with San Antonio.  Yes, Houston did just beat Golden State last night. But, as you know, the Warriors didn't have Steph Curry.  Here, the Grizzlies are the team that's dealing with injuries - a ton of them for that matter - as they came into the playoffs down two starters (Mike Conley and Marc Gasol) and with little chance. The Spurs have held them to an average of just 71 points through the first two games and like I said, there's just no case to be made for Memphis to even win a game in this series.  Lay the points.

What's incredible about the Grizzlies, a playoff team mind you, is that they have now dropped 12 of their last 13 games! The last four losses have all been by margins greater than 20 points! Seven of the 12 losses have been by double digits. They've now played the Spurs six times this season and only once have they stayed within single digits. That was actually in San Antonio.  I talked about this during the regular season, but Memphis was quite fortunate to finish with a winning record as no team had a greater disparity between actual and expected wins (using YTD point differential). For the season, they are being outscored by almost three points per game, which may not sound like a lot, but it's practically unheard of for a postseason participant. Honestly, the Grizz probably should have won only 34 games.

San Antonio was of course #1 in defensive efficiency during the regular season, turning in the best mark in that department in over a decade.  Facing a starting five of Zach Randolph, Matt Barnes, Chris Andersen, Jordan Farmer and Vince Carter almost seems unfair.  The Spurs are 14-8 ATS this season after allowing 85 pts or less in their last game and have won twice here in Memphis this season by an average of 17 PPG. Remember that the Spurs finished the reg season with a per game point differential of +10.6.  8* San Antonio

10* Over Cavs/Pistons (7:05 ET): With Cleveland up 2-0 in the series, things now move to the Motor City.  The Cavs are still the favorite on the road, mind you, as they should be. But be very aware that Detroit had the league's best ATS record at home during the regular season (24-15-2). I'm going to lay off the side here and instead turn to the total where we find the Cavs coming off a game where they tied an NBA-record 20 three-pointers. It stands to reason that they won't make as many here tonight, but that figures to be offset by the fact the Pistons are very likely to make more than just four three-pointers, which is how many they hit in Game 2.  The Over was 24-16-1 here in Detroit during the regular season. Take the Over.

A big part of why the Over was such a profitable bet here during the regular season is the simple fact the Pistons average 105.0 points per game, a significant increase over what they average on the road (6.3 PPG more).  This may be far from the greatest shooting team in the world, but Wednesday night did mark their lowest scoring game of the year vs. the Cavaliers. Much of that was owed to the 4 of 17 shooting from three-point range, not to mention missing 14 free throws as well (12 from Drummond).  I expect the shooting to drastically improve tonight in both areas.  Also, both times the Pistons hosted the Cavs during the regular season, the game went Over.  Cleveland's last visit brought a higher total than this one and the teams combined to score 220 points.

With Cleveland, we know where the bulk of the scoring is going to come from (James-Irving-Love) and through two games Detroit appears powerless to stop them. The Pistons aren't even contesting most of the Cavs' jump shots and Kyrie Irving continues to tear them up w/ a 27.8 PPG scoring average in four games this season. I don't know what rookie Stanley Johnson is talking about when he refers to himself as the "LeBron stopper" as James made every shot he took against Johnson in Game 2.  The Cavs are 21-11 Over this season when off a double digit win and 7-3 Over as road favorites of 3.5 to 6 points.  10* Over Cavs/Pistons

8* Under Rockets/Warriors (9:35 ET):  The challenge in handicapping this series is that the status of Steph Curry appears to be in flux.  He was held out of Game 2, but Golden State still won rather easily (115-106), though they did not cover. They actually scored more w/o Curry than they did with him in Game 1, but if he continues to sit out, I don't see that being the case moving forward. After Game 1 stayed Under the total by an incredible margin (42.5 points!), Game 2 just managed to sneak past the total, which like the pointspread dropped significantly after it was announced Curry would not play.  Regardless of whether or not the league MVP suits up tonight, I anticipate the game to feature fewer points scored than expected. Take the Under.

Though the Warriors are the vastly superior team here, losing Curry's 31.6 points per game remains a massive blow.  Playing only 20 minutes in Game 1, he scored 24 points - all on three-pointers.  It's one thing for the supporting cast to step up at home, but doing the same on the road seems less likely.  Two players in particular who should see their production from Game 2 decrease tonight are Shaun Livingston (starting in place of Curry) and Andre Iguodala. That duo was a combined 14 of 19 from the field Monday w/ Iguodala making four of six three-point attempts. I realize that Houston is not regarded as a "stout" defensive team, but their job would be a whole heck of a lot easier not facing Curry.  If Curry does play, will he really be 100 percent?

Houston turned it over far too many times (19) in Game 2, which led to additional scoring opportunities for Golden State, who hardly needs them.  At the same time, the Rockets scored 23 points off 12 Warriors turnovers.  I anticipate the number of turnovers going down in this game.  What most people don't realize about Golden State is that they ranked fourth in DEFENSIVE efficiency during the regular season.  They've held Houston to well under one point per possession through the first two games and this Rockets team just seems on the verge of implosion w/ Dwight Howard and James Harden not getting along. Harden is the only player averaging more than 13 PPG in the series.  8* Under Rockets/Warriors

8* Over Raptors/Pacers (7:35 ET):  The first two games of this series both stayed Under, but now the scene shifts to Indiana where I feel we'll see a different result.  Though they were able to salvage a split of the two games at home w/ a wire-to-wire 98-87 Game 2 victory, Toronto's three-point shooting has largely been a disaster so far as they've gone a combined 9 for 37. Indiana was no better in Game 2 Monday, in fact, they were even worse at 4 for 20 from behind the arc.  Remember from my previous analysis on this series that Toronto often struggles to defend the three-point line. So I expect Indiana's overall shooting to improve from Game 2 (41.4%) and at the same time the Raptors' two stars - Lowry & DeRozan - have to start improving as well.  Take the Over.

Toronto's struggles from behind the arc can be pinned almost exclusively on Lowry, who is just 1 for 12 himself.  A 38.5 percent shooter from three-point range during the regular season, he has to be better. Playoff struggles are nothing new for him (he was terrible LY vs. the Wizards), but there's no way he can continue being THIS bad (26.9 FG%) and the same holds true for DeRozan, who has missed 27 of his 37 field goal attempts.  One clear advantage the Raptors do have in this series is down low and I look for them to continue to exploit that w/ Jonas Valanciunas, who has been the driving force behind a +32 scoring advantage and +25 rebounding edge in the series.

Indiana saw its offensive production decrease from Game 1 to Game 2 mainly because no one other than Paul George (28 points) stepped up.  Monta Ellis (15 pts) was the only other double digit scorer for the Pacers in Game 2 and the rest of the team was a woeful 1 for 15 from three-point range. As we so often see, the production from the "supporting cast" tends to go way up when a team is at home and that's what I see happening here for the Pacers.  Both teams are due for improvement in overall shooting here and what I see here is a total that's the second lowest for any Raptors-Pacers matchup this season.  Only four times previously has the O/U line been between 190 and 194.5 for an Indiana home game. 8* Over Raptors/Pacers

10* Dallas (7:05 ET):  After being humiliated in Game 1 of this best of seven series (lost by 38), the Mavs responded by delivering an even more shocking result in Game 2, that being an outright win as 14-pt underdogs. Now the series shifts to Dallas and clearly the oddsmakers are anticipating a bounce back performance from the Thunder as they've hung a number here that is "out of step" with what was already a pretty large spread for the first two games.  Using the opening line from Games 1 and 2 (OKC -12.5) as a barometer, the Mavs should probably be in the neighborhood of a 6.5-pt dog coming into Game 3. My own personal power rankings suggest that the line should be even lower than that. So, I'm going to take the points here.

Kevin Durant was a disaster in Game 2 for the Thunder as he missed 26 of 33 field goal attempts, the worst shooting performance by any player in the playoffs since the immortal Jerry Stackhouse missed one more all the way back in 2001.  Obviously, you'd anticipate Durant shooting better here, but to what degree? Wesley Matthews seemed to do the best job guarding him, holding him to 1 for 11 shooting. Beyond Durant and Russell Westbrook, the rest of the Thunder roster is not to be feared, save for maybe Enes Kanter.  This was not a good team at the betting window all season long (36-45-3 ATS) and those anticipating a bounce back will be disappointed to learn that OKC is just 5-11 ATS when coming off a SU loss as a favorite.

Offensively, Monday marked just the fourth time all season that the Thunder were held below 85 points. Save for Game 1, Dallas has been playing great defense down the stretch, holding 10 of its last 11 opponents under 100 points (Game 1 the exception).  Six of those games have seen them hold the opponent under 90 points! Oklahoma City is just 1-2 ATS coming off those previous three times they were held under 85 pts and they are also just 1-5 ATS after allowing 85 pts or less the last game.  I realize that Dallas is dealing with numerous injuries right now (including Dirk Nowitzki, who will play), but Rick Carlisle is the better coach in this series and will get his team to keep this one closer than expected. 10* Dallas

10* Portland (10:35 ET): The zig zag theory has been quite profitable thus far in the playoffs, taking into account the teams that failed to cover the spread in the respective Game 1's.  Of the five series that have played two games, four of the teams that failed to cover Game 1 came back and covered Game 2.  The only exception is injury-riddled Memphis, who has to deal with San Antonio.  The first round of the Western Conference looked to be a breeze for all the higher seeds, but note we've already seen underdogs Dallas and Houston fare far better the second time around compared to the first and the Mavericks even took Game 2 of their series outright.  Here, we find Portland off a 20-pt loss to the Clippers in Game 1, but I look for them to bounce back with a much better performance tonight. Take the points.

I thought HC Terry Stotts did a marvelous job getting his team to the playoffs considering that the Blazers lost four of five starters from last year's squad, one of them being All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge.  Portland was actually projected to finish with one of the worst records in the entire league at the start of the season. But they wound up going Over that projection by nearly 20 games and here they are. I don't see them getting held below 40% from the floor for a second consecutive game nor do I see shooting guard CJ McCollum being held to only single digits again.  I say that because he hasn't been held below 10 pts in consecutive games since last season. Other than Damian Lillard, Portland's other four starters combined to shoot 10 of 36 from the floor (worst shooting game since 3.14).  There will undoubtedly be improvement tonight.

The Clippers, Blake Griffin in particular, looked impressive in Game 1. But they are just 15-13 straight up following a double digit win this year and 12-16 ATS.  Curiously, they are also 3-9 ATS when playing with exactly two days rest. Just like Portland's shooting numbers are due to improve, the Clippers aren't as likely to be as hot as they were in Game 1 (53.8%).  They are 16-24 ATS following an ATS win this season.  10* Portland

8* Detroit (8:05 ET):  The Pistons certainly played well enough to win Game 1. In fact, given that they shot better than 50% from three-point range and let outright much of the way, they probably feel as if they let one "slip away" Sunday in Cleveland. While a team that didn't shoot particularly well during the regular season is likely to experience somewhat of a decline in Game 2 (at least from behind the arc), what about the Cavs reliance on their "Big 3" (LeBron, Irving and Love), who accounted for a ridiculous 81 of the team's 106 points? I'm not sure that's sustainable either and despite Tyronn Lue making a bit of a savvy decision late (went small), I still trust Stan Van Gundy more to make the necessary adjustments. Take the points.

Detroit did beat Cleveland three times during the regular season. One of those wins came in the meaningless final game (both teams rested starters), but still that's two of three that they still won straight up. Overall, they are 4-1 ATS against Cleveland this year and have not lost by a margin greater than eight points.  So, a double digit spread doesn't seem justified in this situation, particularly given how the Cavs never enjoyed a lead greater than eight points in Game 1.   Cleveland is a money-burning 31-42 ATS when favored this season, indicating that they've definitely been overvauled throughout the campaign. The assumption that they are going to "walk through" the rest of the East has worked against them as they are just 22-31 ATS in conference games. 

Detroit doesn't lose by double digits often. In fact, it's happened only twice in their last 16 games. They are one of just four Eastern Conference teams to win straight up here in Cleveland this season and led by seven in the fourth quarter on Sunday.  I anticipated this line opening much lower than it did.  The Pistons, arguably, have better depth than Cleveland w/ five players averaging at least 14 points per game.  They also have the better coach. The Cavaliers defensive numbers have regressed ever since Lue took over as the head coach.  As long as the Pistons don't turn the ball over as much as they did in Game 1, they should be able to withstand the likely decline in three-point percentage and cover the spread w/ room to spare. 8* Detroit

8* Over Hornets/Heat (7:05 ET):  Miami looked very impressive in Game 1 of this series as they destroyed Charlotte 123-91 (as 4.5-pt favorites), shooting 28 of 43 in the painted area and 57.6 percent overall. Luol Deng led the way w/ 31 points and the Heat never trailed while setting franchise marks for most points in a quarter (41) and game (123) in the postseason. Now, it's highly unlikely that they'll shoot that well again tonight or that the game will be as lopsided. But that being said, this total is just too low and it continues to be bet down. After being an Under team for much of the regular season, the Heat definitely have transformed down the stretch as there's been only four games since the start of March where they didn't score 100 points. Charlotte has now gone Over in each of its last six games overall and is a perfect 9-0 Over in its last nine visits to South Beach. Take the Over.

Miami's late season scoring surge can be traced to the acquisition of Joe Johnson, but what's scary (if you're a Hornets fan) is that he had only 11 points in 26 minutes on Sunday.  The key performances for the Heat came from Deng (31 points) and Hassan Whiteside (21 pts, 11 rebounds).  At home, this team now averages a healthy 103.7 points per game. The last time they failed to score 100 here at the American Airlines Arena was all the way back on February 7th vs. the Clippers. Consider that through three quarters on Sunday, the Heat had scored 97 points.

Charlotte has been an explosive offensive team down the stretch as well, topping 110 pts four times in their last six games.  Again, all six of those games went Over the total and you have to figure they'll be a bit better offensively tonight compared to Game 1.  Sunday marked just the third time in April that they were held below 100 pts and one would have to go all the way back to mid-March to find the last time that happened in B2B games.  Kemba Walker scored only 19 pts in Game 1 and 20 of Nic Batum's 24 points came in the first half. WIth the game out of reach, HC Steve Clifford started taking his key players out in the fourth quarter and as a result the Hornets scored just 17 points. The total is just too low here.  Take the Over. 8* Over Hornets/Heat

10* Over Celtics/Hawks (8:05 ET):  Game 1 was a brutal beat for Atlanta backers as a 19-point lead quickly evaporated and it ended up being only a one-point win, which was not good enough to cover the 5.5-pt spread. But the worse break over the long-term clearly was the injury to Avery Bradley for Boston, which has many now questioning the Celtics viability in this series. The spread is higher for Game 2, so I'm laying off there (bettors still liking Boston plus the points though), but the total has my eye as the loss of Bradley hurts the underdog defensively more than anything else. He is their best perimeter defender and once he left the game Saturday night, Atlanta's Jeff Teague had a field day. That continues here. Take the Over. 

Game 1 saw 203 total points scored and nearly went Over despite poor shooting from both sides.  Boston was just 36.3% overall from the floor (11 of 35 from three-point range) and had only 34 points at halftime.  Atlanta shot just 40.7% overall and missed 22 of 27 three-point attempts. It's highly likely that not just one, but both teams will see their shooting improve tonight.  The Celtics led the Eastern Conference in scoring during the regular season (105.7 PPG) and generally gets its contributions from multiple players, not just one, though Isaiah Thomas leads the way w/ 22.2 PPG.  The Hawks average 103.5 PPG at home and will clearly benefit moving forward w/ Bradley off the floor, Teague in particular. Teague finished w/ 23 points and 12 assists in Game 1 and saw his production increase the minute Bradley left.

The Celtics give up 104.5 points per game on the road.  It will be interesting to see if they go big or small w/o Bradley. With Kelly Olynyk's shoulder still bothering him, going small seems to be the more likely option. I would say that opens the door for the likes of Paul Milsap, who put up big numbers in the regular season vs. Boston.  As for the question of how many points will the Celtics score, note that they've scored at least 100 points in all but one game in April.  There have been only three times in the last 27 games that they failed to score at least 98 points. Look for them to find a way to replace Bradley's offensive production, but not so much on the other end of the floor. 10* Over Celtics/Hawks

8* Under Rockets/Warriors (10:35 ET): If Houston is going to only score 78 points like they did in Game 1, then the NBA might as well go ahead and cancel this series because Golden State will win every game easily.  Saturday saw the Warriors race out to a 6-0 lead and never look back, going up 33-15 by the end of the first quarter and pushing the lead as high as 28 points. Of course, the big story heading into Game 2 is centered around Steph Curry's ankle, which seems to give the Rockets "new life," but I still wouldn't feel comfortable endorsing the underdog in the current price range.  Considering how far Game 1 fell short of the posted total (by 42.5 points!) and Curry's ankle, I see the Under as the smart play here especially considering how playoff games w/ high totals have historically stayed Under.

Saturday's game was the ninth highest total for any NBA playoff game going back to '07.  Given Houston's tendency to play awful defense and Golden State's offensive prowess, that made at least a little sense.  But at no point did the teams threaten to go Over the total as neither shot the ball that well (though the Warriors were 10 of 25 from three-point range) and there were 20 missed free throws. Golden State's offense clearly slowed down in the second half when they were up big and w/o Curry.  The MVP is currently listed as questionable for tonight and did not practice on Sunday.  If he does play, he won't be 100% and thus it stands to reason that the Warriors offensive production will suffer as a result. You might be surprised to learn that the Under is 8-4 in the Warriors' last 12 games where the total is 218 pts or higher.

Houston will probably score more tonight than they did in Game 1, but the question is how much more.  The Under is now 9-2 the L11 times that they have been a road underdog of at least 12.5 points.  This is still a pretty high total by their standards as well as the Under has cashed for them five of the last six times the total has been 215 pts or higher.  While there is a precedent for a "Curry-less" matchup between the Warriors & Rockets (one took place on 12.31) and the result there is not what we would want to see (GSW won 114-110), I do not anticipate seeing that much scoring tonight.  8* Under Rockets/Warriors

10* Over Pacers/Raptors (7:05 ET): Not to "pat myself on the back," but my Game 1 analysis (where I called for an Indiana cover & got a SU win) was pretty "spot on." I noted how Toronto came into this series overvalued based on the notion that "this is their year" (to get out of the first round). I said that it was the Pacers who had the best player (Paul George) and he responded w/ a great game Saturday, leading the way w/ 33 points. Meanwhile, it had to be a case of bad "deja vu" for the Raptors as their two best players - Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan - combined for only 25 points on a horrific 8 of 32 shooting. That pretty much negated the fact that the rest of the team was a more than respectable 22 of 47 from the floor and that the Raptors enjoyed a sizable edge in rebounding, particularly on the offensive end.

While, historically speaking, this spot would seem to be conducive to Toronto bouncing back w/ a win and cover, I didn't like the spread for Game 1, so I certainly can't endorse them as a (potentially) larger favorite for Game 2.  Thus, it's time to take a look at the total.  Game 1 staying Under is almost exclusively owed to the Raptors' poor shooting as not only were they just 38% overall, including 21.1% from three-point range, but they also missed 12 of 38 free throw attempts. Again, Lowry (last year's playoff goat) and DeRozan were the primary culprits with the duo missing all but one 3-pt attempt and Lowry going just 4 of 9 from the line. I anticipate both players shooting better tonight. One good thing is that following a double-digit loss, the Over is 22-6 for the Raptors, including 8-2 this season.

In my Game 1 analysis, I also wrote about how poor Toronto was during the regular season at defending the three-point line.  Indiana ended up finishing 11 of 21 from behind the arc and I envision them being effective again tonight in that department.  While the Under is now 3-2 in the five Pacers-Raptors matchups this season, Saturday's game was actually the lowest scoring of the bunch and every regular season meeting would have gone Over tonight's total. Indiana is 17-6 Over in road games when the O/U line is 190 to 194.5 including a perfect 3-0 this season. 10* Over Pacers/Raptors