8* Delaware (6:30 ET): The CAA “ain’t what it used to be,” so what we’re left with is a far more “wide-open” league. A conference that has produced TWO Final Four teams this century does have another storyline going for it in 2020 as current leader William & Mary is one of only FOUR original D-I schools NEVER to have made the NCAA Tournament. But tonight, the focus is on Delaware and Hofstra, both of whom are off a close games that didn’t turn out the same way. For a variety of reasons, I’ll be taking the points here. 

Delaware is off a 79-78 win over Elon, a game that was decided on a three-pointer with just two seconds left. While they escaped with the SU, the Blue Hens did not come close to covering the 10-point spread and are now just 1-5 ATS their L6 games. Tonight, they are looking to make it B2B wins for the first time since conference play began. Interestingly enough, this will be just the second time Delaware has been an underdog to a Colonial opponent and it’s the most points they’ll be taking for any game since facing Villanova last month.

Hofstra lost by two at College of Charleston Saturday, capping a three-game road trip where every decision was by exactly two points. The Pride won the first two games, 74-72 over Northeastern and 63-61 over UNC Wilmington. All three games saw the game winning basket made in the final 10 seconds. While a fine home team, this just looks like too many points for Hofstra to be laying. Being in the lower half of the CAA standings, Delaware figures to come in as the more desperate side and I just can’t see them losing by double digits here. 8* Delaware

10* Under Rutgers/Iowa (9:00 ET): Rutgers’ games have been going Under for quite awhile now. The last seven, a streak which goes all the way back to December 14th, have all stayed Under. But more important to the Scarlet Knights right now is that they’ve covered nine straight games, a streak which stretches back to December 9th. They’ve lost only one game during that time - by three at Illinois on Jan 11 - and have to be feeling pretty good about their chances of surviving the Big 10 gauntlet heading into Iowa City tonight.

Iowa has won its last three games as well as seven of its last nine. The Hawkeyes are now nationally ranked (#19 in both polls) and that’s pretty close to where I have them in my own power rankings (#18). They just hung 90 points on Michigan last Friday, but repeating that kind of offensive effort here against a team that ranks #7 nationally (per KenPom) in defensive efficiency seems unlikely.

In its last nine games, the most points Rutgers has allowed is 65. They’ve held six opponents below 60 points. For the year, they allow just 58.7 PPG, which matches their efficiency ranking (#7 in the country). Obviously, Iowa is a better offensive team than most of the teams that Rutgers has faced. But Under is the call here. 10* Under Rutgers/Iowa

10* Memphis (7:35 ET): Last Friday, the Grizzlies saw a 6-game ATS win streak end when they failed to cover the nine-point spread in a 113-109 win over Cleveland. Monday saw the end of a 7-game SU win streak when they fell to the Pelicans 126-116. They allowed New Orleans to make a franchise-record 21 three-pointers in that game. Despite both the ATS and SU win streaks having ended, I like the Grizzlies to cover tonight in Boston, something which they have done in 18 of their previous 22 visits. 

The Celtics picked up a signature win on MLK Day, absolutely annihilating the Lakers 139-107. But before beating the Lakers, Boston had lost six of eight and three straight. I would not be confident in them maintaining the “high” of beating the Lakers. They’ve suffered recent losses to teams worse than the Grizzlies and winning here by the margin suggested by the oddsmakers is going to be tough. Honestly, a Memphis SU win seems more likely than them getting blown out. 

The Grizzlies have surged into 8th place in the West thanks to an offense that has scored at least 110 points in every game since December 21st. So it’s hard to cover a large spread against against them. Expect them to defend the three-point line better here than they did vs. NO. It’s been a month since Memphis lost B2B games with them going a perfect 4-0 ATS off their L4 SU losses. 10* Memphis

8* Over Heat/Wizards (7:35 ET): On average, Wizards’ games are the highest scoring of any team’s in the league. You’re looking at an average of 234.1 points per game. That’s obviously very high. What is - by far - the most interesting thing about this team is that their dramatic split between offensive and defensive efficiency. While they’ve recently gotten less efficient on the offensive end, it is their defensive efficiency - or rather lack of it - that’s really killing them. They are also dead last in the league in points allowed.

Miami is coming off an overtime win against Sacramento. That improved their home record to a league-best 19-1. I played accordingly in a recent home and home with the Spurs, taking them at home and fading on the road. I won both times. This spread is a little high, but what’s notable is how the Heat’s scoring average jumps here at home to 115.7 PPG. They only average 108.0 PPG on the road. That’s actually a pretty sizable split. Regardless if home or away, the Over is 26-16-1 in all Heat games this season.

So a home matchup against the worst defensive team in the league seems poised to go Over. The Wizards allowing a shocking 122.2 PPG on the road. Opponents shoot nearly 50% from the field! These teams have met twice already this season with the home team winning both games. Another key is the Wizards are 13-4 Over in games vs. .500 or better foes. Look for this to turn into a track meet. 8* Over Heat/Wizards

10* Rhode Island (7:00 ET): Duquesne started the season red hot. They were even one of the last remaining unbeatens at 10-0. The Dukes then lost their next two games, but have subsequently bounced back with 5-0 start in Atlantic 10 play. They and Dayton are the only two A-10 teams without a loss. But a generous schedule is as responsible for this 15-2 SU record as much as anything else. The Dukes’ strength of schedule is outside the top 300 and it’s telling that they are not even in the top 75 of the KenPom rankings.

Rhode Island is 4-1 in the A-10. Their only loss was to Richmond, 69-61 at home, in the conference opener. Not only is that the Rams only conference loss, it’s their only home defeat. They are 8-0 otherwise in their own gym and Saturday saw them take care of LaSalle here, 66-63. While the Rhodies did not cover the 10-pt spread, that was because of a poor shooting night. I expect them to bounce back on the offensive end tonight plus they’ve held their L5 opponents to a 39.7 FG%.

Three of Rhode Island’s five losses were to Maryland, LSU and West Virginia. Duquesne simply is not in that same class. Keep in mind that none of those three losses were here at home either. Duquesne needed OT to get by Fordham 58-56 last week as an 18-point favorite. Fordham is one of two teams in the conference (St. Joe’s is the other) without a win. I really like the short number here. 10* Rhode Island

8* Miami FL (9:00 ET): I mentioned Duke in the WF/Clemson writeup and here we are playing against them Tuesday. The Blue Devils have lost two in a row, dropping them to #8 in the rankings. While I still believe this is easily one of the best teams in the country, it’s also a good time to fade Coach K as most bettors are going to look at this matchup and simply assume “bounce back.” Duke will win most likely, but it won’t be as easy as it was down in Coral Gables earlier this month when they beat Miami by 33 points.

That was a horrendous loss for Miami as they were coming off an impressive upset at Clemson on New Year’s Eve. Since the Duke game, the Hurricanes have lost three of four, but they were quite competitive on Saturday against another top 10 squad, that being Florida State. The Seminoles are very likely the ACC’s 3rd best team this season (trailing only Duke & Louisville), yet the Canes were able to hang tight,, losing by only four points (83-79) at home. They covered as seven-point dogs and are 3-1 ATS this season after allowing 80+ points in their last game.

Duke lost a heavily-hyped showdown with Louisville on Saturday, 79-73, right here at home as 8.5-point chalk. It was their second loss of the season in Durham, the only being that absolute shocker to Stephen F. Austin. It was a near identical score when the Blue Devils lost at Clemson exactly one week ago (79-72). It’s very rare to see Duke off B2B losses and the number looks inflated, especially off two straight poor defensive performances. 8* Miami FL

analysis soon

10* Under Wake Forest/Clemson (8:00 ET): A couple of 9-8 teams fighting to stay relevant in the ACC meet Tuesday in Death Valley. Wake Forest is off a big 80-62 home win over Boston College on Sunday, which ended a three-game losing skid. But it’s a quick turnaround for the Demon Deacons as tonight they hit the road and face a Clemson team that just had a three-game win streak snapped with a 60-54 loss at NC State on Saturday. The Tigers still covered that game (were +7), so they are 4-0 ATS the last four games. 

It’s not the pointspread I’m concerned with tonight, however. Wake Forest also comes in having gone Over in eight consecutive contests. But some of those Overs have been by the “skin of the teeth” for Danny Manning’s squad. In fact, five of the eight games have gone Over by no more than four points. The Demon Deacons scored 80 points Sunday against B.C. but won’t come close to that number tonight as they are averaging just 68.7 PPG outside of Winston-Salem. Their last road game saw them get held to just 59 points by Duke. 

Clemson is ranked 33rd in the country in defensive efficiency, a strong rating. This is a team that beat both North Carolina and Duke three days apart earlier this month. Saturday’s loss to NC State was a revenge game for the Wolfpack after the Tigers had beaten them here at home on January 4th. The 60-54 loss in Raleigh snapped Clemson’s own four-game Over streak. They hold teams to just 39.7% shooting here at home and WF is shooting that exact same percentage on the road. 10* Under Wake Forest/Clemson

10* Purdue (7:00 ET): Purdue is a team I’ve been closely tracking for awhile now. With eight losses already on their resume, the Boilermakers certainly aren’t getting any consideration as a Top 25 team right now. But, make no mistake about it, this is a team that’s far better than it’s 10-8 SU record would seem to indicate. Nine days ago, they proved what they are capable of by demolishing #11 Michigan State (another underrated team) 72-41 right here in West Lafayette. Despite a loss at Maryland on Saturday, both the KenPom ratings and my own consider Purdue to be one of the 25 best teams in the country. 

Illinois is one of the teams that may pay the price for the Big 10 being so good this year. There are 12 teams from this conference that I have rated within my Top 40 in the country. That’s amazing. The problem for the Illini is that I have them 11th in the pecking order. It’s pretty hard to make the NCAA Tournament when you’re only the 11th best team in your own conference, though Joe Lunardi currently has 11 Big 10 teams in his projected field and the Fighting Illini are among them. Still, despite what happened when these teams met on January 5th, I have Illinois rated as the inferior squad. 

What happened on January 5th was a 63-37 beatdown of the Boilermakers by the Illini over in Champaign-Urbana. That shocking result began what is now a four-game win streak for Illinois. But I believe revenge is going to be sweet for Purdue tonight. They are 8-1 SU at home and winning by an average of almost 19 PPG. Illinois has been outscored by about 6.0 PPG when they leave campus. Purdue has a top 6 defensive efficiency rating per KenPom and will obviously shoot the ball better tonight than they did two weeks ago when they made only 25% of their FG attempts vs. the Illini. Love the spot and the number here. 10* Purdue.

8* Portland State (10:05 ET): Portland State began 2020 with four straight road games, three of them ending up as losses. But they returned home on Saturday and prevailed 82-76 against Idaho State. The Vikings have played a lot of close games in conference play, but tonight they host one of the Big Sky’s weaker teams, that being Weber State. Damian Lillard’s alma mater also happens to be off a win over Idaho State (Thursday) but they needed OT and are only 6-11 SU on the season. This will be Weber State’s fourth time playing on the road since the new year began.

Weber State has won just one time as an underdog (1-10 SU in that role) all year and that was 72-67 at Utah Valley State back on December 4th. They’re just 4-7 ATS getting points so them getting such a small number here doesn’t make them the least bit attractive. Again, the Wildcats needed overtime to snap a three-game losing skid on Thursday. They trailed by seven at halftime. It was the fourth straight game where they were held to 64 pts or less in regulation. This team is 287th in offensive efficiency and 280th in defensive efficiency. 

Portland State has been one of the worst defensive teams in the country so far, but is far more efficient than Weber State on the offensive end (80th nationally). Despite a quicker turnaround between games, I like the spot more for the Vikings as they are at home where they’ve won 25 of their last 36 games straight up. Weber State’s struggles as an underdog aren’t just limited to this season. They’ve lost 23 of their last 28 in that role. It’ll be too much offense from Portland State (82.1 PPG at home) for the underdog to overcome in this one. 8* Portland State

8* Indiana (9:05 ET): The Pacers pulled out a win in Denver last night, rallying with a 41-point 4Q, 18 of those coming from Doug McDermott. They also owned the Nuggets from behind the three-point line, outscoring them there 39-9. The win was the fifth straight for Indiana, who is now 28-15 SU for the year and tied with Boston for 4th place in the Eastern Conference standings. They’ve covered the spread four times during the five-game win streak and won outright both times they were an underdog. They haven’t been a dog of this size since playing at Milwaukee before X-Mas. 

Speaking of X-Mas, Utah must have gotten one heck of a gift because they’re 11-1 SU since the holiday. They’ve climbed up to third in the West, tied w/ Denver at 29-13. The Jazz’s home record is 16-3 SU, which is one of the best home win percentages in the entire league. They’ve lost only two games since December 10th and both were on the road. Since suffering their last home loss (12/9 vs. OKC), the team has gone 16-2 SU overall.

But as hot as the Jazz have been, I feel they are due to “cool off” some. This line is inflated due to it being the second game of a back to back for Indiana. But the Pacers are a solid 3-3 SU in this situation, only being outscored by 3.8 PPG. Too often we see the rested team overvalued in this spot and that’s the case again here. The Jazz have a losing SU record (6-8) vs. teams that have winning records. Incredibly, their L10 games have all been against sub-.500 foes, which explains the win streak. 8* Indiana

10* Charlotte (5:05 ET): This is the first meeting of the season between these Southeast Division rivals.They split four games last year. Neither comes into MLK Day playing particularly well. Orlando is in 7th place in the Eastern Conference, but is just 20-23 SU on the season after losing B2B games. Charlotte has lost six in a row, but at least they are now back home after a winless four-game trip out West. This will be the sixth straight road game for the Magic, the last five all coming out West. The situation definitely looks better for the Hornets. 

After what he called a “disturbing” effort by his team at Golden State the other night, Magic HC Steve Clifford didn’t mince words when it came to the set up for today’s game. "The Charlotte game is going to be difficult because of the travel, the schedule, which to me is ridiculous." Again, Orlando is coming off five straight road games out West, four of which came in a six-day span. Meanwhile, Charlotte hasn’t played since Wednesday and after tonight won’t play again until Friday when they face the Bucks in Paris. This game figures to have their full attention. Hornets HC James Borrego seems confident about tonight after all the practice time his team was able to log. 

Orlando was favored (by six) when it lost at Golden State. That was a really bad loss considering the Warriors had lost their previous 10 games and were very short-handed. After jumping out to a 13-0 lead, the Magic were outscored 109-88 the rest of the way. It marked the third time on this trip that they were held below 100 points, nothing new considering they are the league’s lowest scoring team. They made just 29% from 3-pt range vs. Golden State as they fell to 3-7 SU L10 road games. It’s an easy decision to fade them as a favorite in this spot. 10* Charlotte

10* Over Cal/UCLA (8:00 ET): Neither team is playing well and both are off less than stellar offensive efforts. California put just 56 points on the board Thursday night at USC in what ended up being a humiliating 32 point defeat. UCLA could manage only 59 points in a 15-point loss at Stanford Wednesday. The two 8-9 teams meet Sunday night in Pauley Pavillion, both desperate for a win. UCLA is 1-6 SU/ATS its last seven games (0-3 SU/ATS L3) while Cal is 3-7 SU/ATS its L10. 

The struggles you’ve seen from both of these teams are not limited to the offensive end of the floor. Cal let USC shoot 50% from the field as it remained winless on the road this year. A big reason for that winless record is that they give up 75.7 PPG away from Berkeley. They don’t exactly shoot well either, but going against UCLA should help. The Bruins have given up at least 74 points in six of their last seven games.

UCLA’s last two opponents have both shot better than 50%. I expect this to turn into a pretty high scoring game. Cal is 164th nationally in defensive efficiency while UCLA is an atrocious 233rd. UCLA is 7-4 Over as a favorite this year while Cal is 4-1 Over after being held to 60 points or less in its last game. 10* Over Cal/UCLA

8* San Antonio (3:05 ET): When these teams met down in Miami on Wednesday, I felt taking the Heat was a very logical call. After all, they came into the game with the league’s best home record (17-1 SU) and were laying a pretty short number. Well, turns out I was right as Miami is now 18-1 SU at home after beating the Spurs 106-100. But they just BARELY covered and it was more of a struggle than I anticipated as the Heat actually trailed going into the 4Q. Each team has played once since then and it the same result for both with the Heat winning (at OKC) and SA losing (to Atlanta).

The Spurs have made the postseason every year since 1998, which is an NBA record. But it looks like that streak may be in serious jeopardy now with the team currently not in the top eight in the Western Conference. They’re two games back of suddenly red hot Memphis and an embarrassing loss to lowly Atlanta certainly did not help matters. That loss, which was on Friday, was 121-120 as a nine-point favorite. The Spurs blew a 14-point lead in the 4Q.

After a loss like that, I expect the Spurs to be ready to go this afternoon. Miami is nowhere near as strong on the road where they win just 50% of the time. They’ve been outscored in their road games. While it was a 115-106 win at Oklahoma City on Friday, the Heat are just 6-10 ATS this season after scoring 115+ in their previous game. They have previously lost at Washington and New York. There was also a 20-pt loss in Orlando. The Spurs are 54-34 ATS in revenge spots the L3 seasons. 8* San Antonio

8* Houston (8:35 ET): It should be a good one for this first installment of Saturday night NBA on ABC. But a number of factors are pointing me in the direction of the Rockets. First off, while both teams come in off a loss, Houston is clearly more desperate. They’ve actually lost two in a row to fall to fifth in a very top-heavy Western Conference. Losing by 10 at home to Portland Thursday night was kind of shocking, but the Rockets are 6-1 ATS this season off a double digit loss. That makes it seem quite logical to lay the short number. 

The Lakers’ loss to Orlando Wednesday night was by just a single point (119-118) and ended a nine-game win streak. They hadn’t lost since X-Mas. All season, the Lakers have lost just three times by double digits and they are 22-1 SU vs. sub-.500 teams. The one loss was to Orlando as both Anthony Davis and Rajon Rondo sat. Both are officially listed as questionable for tonight. Against teams with winning records, the Lakers are a more “mortal” 11-7.

This is only the second time the Rockets have lost two in a row this season. They did have a three-game losing skid in November, but otherwise have been a “safe bet” off a loss. Two straight losses as a favorite is a first, so again they’ll be the more “desperate” side tonight. This one simply means more to them. 8* Houston

10* Arizona (2:30 ET): Last Sunday, we touted Arizona as our Game of the Week and they failed. It was an embarrassing loss at Oregon State where the Wildcats went down 82-65. In our analysis for that game, I made it pretty clear that Arizona was better than its record shows. In fact, I’d go so far as to call this one of the most underrated teams in the country at this point! They bounced back from Sunday’s loss w/ a nice 93-77 beatdown of Utah here in Tucson Thursday night. Now it’s time to take care of Colorado.

Colorado comes in ranked #20 in the country. They are one of just two Pac 12 teams ranked in the current AP Poll (Stanford is #25 in the Coaches). But, by now, I’m sure you’ve noticed this line which would certainly seem to indicate that unranked Arizona is better in the eyes of the oddsmakers. I definitely agree with that assertion and the oddsmakers are usually better than the pollsters anyway. I’ll take things a step further and call Arizona the best team in the Pac 12 despite what the WL records may say. 

Arizona is 12-5 SU on the season. But before Oregon State got them on Sunday, the previous four losses had all been by five points or fewer. Three of the losses were to top 10 teams including Gonzaga & Baylor, who are currently 1-2. At home, the Wildcats are 10-1 SU and outscoring opponents by 25.6 PPG. So there’s no hesitation to lay the points here. Colorado had a nice road win Thursday, 68-61 at Arizona State, but as those who follow the Pac 12 closely will tell you, it’s the second road game of the weekend that usually gets you. The Buffaloes have dropped 20 of their last 29 “true” road games. 10* Arizona

10* Under Bulls/Sixers (7:05 ET): Chicago picked up a win it really “needed” to have on Wednesday, beating Washington 115-106 as a 3.5-point home favorite. The Bulls are now 15-27 SU on the year but by no means out of playoff contention, despite losing 7 of the last 10 games. They are just four back of the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference. But they are banged up right now with multiple players injured including Otto Porter and Wendell Carter Jr. Friday looks like a tough assignment at Philadelphia, who is 19-2 SU at home.

The Sixers have one of the sharpest home vs. road splits in the league right now. They are only 7-14 SU away from home and that’s why they’re not any higher in the Eastern Conference standings. They did beat Brooklyn here at home Wednesday night, 117-106 as a 7-point favorite. Joel Embiid remains out indefinitely, so they are short-handed right now as well. Before the win over the Nets (where they shot 51.1%), the Sixers had lost six of eight (all six losses on the road) and had even been held under 100 points four times. 

Philly, as you might expect, is a lot better defensively when at home. They give up just 102.1 PPG here, which is one of the better averages in the league. Some of that is certainly due to Embiid, but even without their All Star center, they still just held the Nets (with Kyrie) to 106 pts. Three of the Sixers last four opponents have not shot well. At the same time, they are 9-5 Under after scoring 115+ points. This O/U line exceeds what both teams’ games are averaging for the season. 10* Under Bulls/Sixers

10* St. Louis (7:00 ET): Conference play isn’t even a month old, but across the country most teams have already experienced a loss. But in the Atlantic 10, there are still three unbeatens left, one of them the clear class of the league and that’s #13 Dayton, who is in action here. The Flyers were lucky in that leading scorer Obi Toppin’s ankle injury wasn’t as serious as originally thought. As a result, they had little difficulty defeating preseason favorite VCU on Tuesday. But that was also home. Friday, they hit the road to face a dangerous St. Louis team. 

St. Louis comes in riding a three-game win streak. They have not played since Saturday when they went to Richmond and picked up a nice 74-58 road win as 5.5-point underdogs. Having had the extra time off is surely an advantage heading into what will be the biggest home game of the entire conference slate. The Billikens suffered their only A-10 loss on the road, to also undefeated Duquesne, but are a strong 10-1 SU at home with the lone loss coming to a very good Seton Hall team. They won the only other time they were a home dog this season, that coming against Belmont right before Thanksgiving. 

I know what kind of season Toppin is having, but SLU also has a pair of standouts with Goodwin and French being the ONLY teammates nationally to both be averaging a double-double. The duo combines for 29 points and 20.5 rebounds per game. The Billikens are also a strong defensive team, which is needed to beat what has been a very efficient Dayton offense. This figures to be one of Dayton’s toughest remaining games and it’s a lot of points to lay on the road. St. Louis is already 5-2 ATS as a dog with four outright wins. Take the points. 10* St. Louis

10* Golden State (10:35 ET): Coming off a 100-86 win over Charlotte last night, Denver finds itself playing the second night of a back to back here. Compounding that issue is the fact the Nuggets enter short-handed. We already know that Jamal Murray won’t play. He was already dealing with a back issue when he was taken off the court last night because of an injured ankle. Gary Harris and Paul Milsap, two other starters, also didn’t play last night and the coaching staff seems in no rush to get them back on the court. 

Now Golden State obviously has its own set of problems to deal with, namely a nine-game losing streak and their own bevy of injuries. But at least they are rested coming into tonight. They certainly played poorly here at home vs. Dallas on Tuesday, but I don’t believe the Nuggets are good as the Mavericks (despite what the standings may say). Three of Golden State’s last four losses have come to teams I have ranked in the top six in the league. 

Back to back’s have been tricky for Denver as they are just 1-5 ATS in them this season. This one, where they’re likely to be quite short-handed, looks like a real tough spot. Despite being 28-12 SU on the year, the Nuggets are overrated in my book. Despite being tied for the second best record in the Western Conference, their net efficiency rating of +2.8 is only 12th in the league. They have overachieved, just like last year. Take the points in this one. 10* Golden State

10* Delaware (7:00 ET): Delaware is going to be happy to be back at home Thursday night after playing three straight on the road. They lost two of those three games including 84-68 at Towson on Saturday. That leaves the Blue Hens at 2-3 SU in CAA play, but again this one is all about the return home. Delaware is 7-1 SU in Newark where it averages over 77 PPG. The Blue Hens have certainly been priced like a contender in this conference as tonight is the fifth time in six games they’ll go off as the favorite. 

William & Mary, infamously, is one of four original D-I schools to have never made the NCAA Tournament. They’re looking to change that in 2020 as they come into tonight as the lone unbeaten team in Colonial play. The Tribe have opened conference play with five straight wins, two of those by two points or less. Defense has been very key with W&M holding conference opponents to 63.4 PPG on 39.4% shooting. That’s an improvement from non-conference play when opponents averaged 72 PPG against the Tribe. 

Look for Delaware to break the streak of poor shooting William & Mary opponents. I already went over their scoring average here at home and the Blue Hens are also a strong shooting team. They also play good defense at home, holding the opposition to 64.7 PPG on 38.4% shooting. Since starting the year 9-0, the Blue Hens are just 3-6, but they’ve lost to Villanova and an OT game. William & Mary is the hot team now, but can easily “cool off” just like Delaware did. They’re not running the table in conference play. 10* Delaware

10* Missouri State (8:00 ET): I would certainly say that it “speaks volumes” that Missouri State is favored here, even though the game is at home. The Bears are coming off a terrible 23-point loss to Northern Iowa here in Springfield and just 8-9 SU on the season. Bradley comes in at 12-5 SU and has covered five in a row, the last four coming in conference play. Oddsmakers have set a trap here and I’m not falling for it. Lay the short number with the home team. 

Let’s look at the home court advantage for a bit, shall we? Before losing to Northern Iowa, who leads the MVC, Missouri State had been 6-1 SU on this floor. Even after giving up 80 pts to the Panthers on Saturday, they are still only allowing 60.7 PPG here for the season. Bradley has won just 4 of its last 22 trips to Springfield and was held to 37 points in an embarrassing loss here LY. The Braves had been 0-4 SU in “true” road games before beating Evansville last week (were favored to do so).

Bradley has gotten to take on some of the weaker teams in the Missouri Valley so far, which helps explain the ATS win streak. The one exception was when they had to face Northern Iowa on the road and sure enough they lost that game. Missouri State has lost only once as a favorite (in eight tries) all season. 10* Missouri State

10* Miami (7:35 ET): The Heat have lost two straight, both as favorites, but those games were played on the road. Now they return home - where they are 17-1 SU on the season - and laying a short number to a San Antonio team that is still below .500 and playing its fourth consecutive road game. There looks to be some value here as my raw numbers indicate that the spread should be closer -7.5. The Spurs still have major issues defensively and I’m going to lay the points here.

Now it’s obvious that the Heat’s last loss was a total embarrassment. They lost 124-121 to the lowly Knicks, a game they were favored to win by 7.5 points. It was a shocking defeat in the sense that Miami was up 10 going into the 4Q. Usually a good defensive team, they allowed 40 pts in the final 12 minutes. The Heat shot a much higher percentage from three-point range, so really it’s a game they “should have” won. The same could be said for the three-point loss in Brooklyn that preceded it. They’ve actually shot 51% or better in four straight games.

Again, the Heat are 17-1 SU at home. That’s the best home win percentage in the league. This is the first time all season that they’ve been off B2B losses. I look for the string of strong offensive efforts to continue as San Antonio is allowing 116.2 PPG on the road. Miami is actually outscoring its visitors by an average of 11.7 PPG, which is very impressive. San Antonio did just win at Toronto, but was down 13 points after three quarters. They haven’t won two straight on the road all year. 10* Miami

10* Under Kentucky/South Carolina (6:30 ET): Kentucky, still my pick to win the SEC, seemed to have the faithful in Lexington in a bit worried when they lost back to back games to Utah and Ohio State right before the New Year. But John Calipari’s Wildcats have responded with four straight wins where their scoring has been remarkably consistent (between 71 and 78 points) and all four wins have been by at least eight points. They’ve moved up to #10 in the polls and tonight take on a South Carolina team trending in a very different direction. 

The Gamecocks have lost three straight games coming into tonight. This streak started with a humiliating upset here in Columbia as they lost 63-56 as a 22.5-point favorite to Stetson. Since then, it’s an 0-2 start in the SEC with losses to Florida and at Tennessee. They covered Saturday in Knoxville, losing by only one point, but could only manage 55 points. There have been a number of games this season when South Carolina’s offense seemingly “failed to show up.” They’ve shot just 35.5% in SEC play. 

It’s highly unlikely that the Gamecocks figure it out offensively in this game. Kentucky is strong defensively as they allow only 62.5 points/game. In the only meeting last year, they held South Carolina to 48 points. But the key here will be that UK’s own offense won’t be up to par. This is a rare “true” road game for the Wildcats, just their second all year. Four of South Carolina’s last five opponents have failed to exceed 63 points and for the year, opponents are shooting just 37.9%! Sounds like an Under to me! 10* Under Kentucky/South Carolina

10* Houston (8:30 ET): Is Memphis for real? The Grizzlies have won five straight games and now occupy the “coveted” 8th spot in the Western Conference standings. That spot is going to be up for grabs the rest of the way and I’m unconvinced the Grizz end up in it. This win streak can be chalked up to a favorable schedule that has seen them play the last three games all as home chalk. Offense has definitely been on the rise, but tonight it’s a matchup with the team that is tied for the highest scoring average in the league. The win streak ends here and you should lay the points. 

Houston just put up 139 points on Saturday, beating Minnesota in what was a nice bounce back from a bad loss at Oklahoma City. That loss to OKC, which came in the second night of a back to back, is the only time the Rockets have been beaten over the L5 games. A win here could have them in second place in the West by night’s end. Earlier in the year, the Rockets came to Memphis and covered as six-point favorites thanks to a massive edge in three-point shooting. 

The Grizzlies are just 7-12 SU vs. teams that have winning records this year. They have only two such wins over the past month. This is pretty clearly the best they’ve played all year. Because of that we’re able to get a good price on Houston, who is 6-1 ATS when taking the court this season on exactly two days rest. As good as Memphis has been at the offensive end recently, Houston is more consistent at that end and let’s not discount that the Grizzlies are 27th overall in PPG allowed. 10* Houston

10* VCU (8:00 ET): #13 Dayton is 14-2 SU with its two losses (Kansas, Colorado) both coming in overtime. Being unbeaten in regulation is quite the claim to be able to make at this point of the season. The Flyers are very much a legit threat on a national level as they are #6 in the KenPom rankings and I’ve got them #9 in my own power ratings. But if there is one concern I have, it’s that they are only 43rd in defensive efficiency. Tonight, they are playing the only A-10 team that’s higher in that important metric and that could mean upset. Take the points. 

Certainly you’re familiar with the brand of basketball VCU likes to play. The full court pressure, termed “Havoc” by former HC Shaka Smart, is once again yielding solid results as the Rams are giving up only 60.9 PPG on the year. But it hasn’t translated at the betting window as VCU is an ugly 4-12 ATS on the year and just lost outright at home to Rhode Island Saturday, 65-56 as 8.5-pt chalk. But offense was the problem in that game as the Rams shot a woeful 31.3% overall. They'll absolutely shoot better tonight. 

Dayton is undefeated at home (9-0), but this is going to be a test. The Flyers do rank #3 nationally in offensive efficiency, but they also haven’t faced a good team since the loss to Colorado. Compounding matters, leading scorer Obi Toppin sprained his ankle in Saturday’s win over UMass and likely will miss tonight’s game. Even if Toppin can go, the play stands. Against a team that plays defense like this, not having your leading scorer at 100 percent is hardly ideal. 10* VCU

8* Sacramento (10:05 ET): Orlando has played well over its last six games, winning four (SU) and covering five. But they are off a 98-94 loss at Phoenix. As is obvious from the final score, offense was an issue Saturday night for the Magic. That’s something that has plagued them all season as they come into tonight ranked dead last in the league in points per game with 103.5. Because of the fact their defensive numbers slip on the road, I’m fading them here. 

The Kings are also off a loss, but considering they faced Milwaukee their last time out, what else would you expect? The Kings gave up 127 points, but that was to the highest scoring team in the league. They actually led in the third quarter. Interestingly enough, Sacramento also just won at Phoenix (114-103), something that Orlando just failed to do, so that’s a mark in their favor. The Kings had won three of four going into the Milwaukee game, the lone loss coming by 2 pts. 

Sacramento has won and covered all four meetings with Orlando the past two seasons. I expect them to simply “outscore” the Magic in this one. While the Magic have been able to hold three straight opponents below 100 pts, that’s happened to the Kings only two times since Dec 4. Both teams are banged up right now, but Sacramento needs this one more as they are struggling to remain relevant in the Western Conference. 8* Sacramento

10* Arizona (10:00 ET): Oregon State has definitely improved. But they are not yet deserving of this price range, even at home, against the class of the Pac 12. While these teams have matching 11-4 SU records, not all records are created equally. Three of Arizona’s losses have been to top 10 teams. All four have been by five points or less. While they are in danger of falling out of the polls, I very much consider the Wildcats to be a top 10 caliber team. I certainly don’t see them losing another game and will lay this short number tonight.

All four Arizona losses have come in their last six games. Similarly, three of Oregon State’s four losses this year have been in their last five games. The Beavers have lost to some quality teams, but none of them were the same caliber of the teams that have beaten Arizona. Something else worth noting is they lost here at home Thursday to an Arizona State team that Arizona beat by 28. So that’s another reason not to judge these identical records the same. OSU has lost 36 of the last 44 times they’ve faced Arizona. 

Thursday in Eugene, Arizona led Oregon by six points with two minutes left in regulation. They failed to protect the lead and lost in overtime. So they should be in an ornery mood here. Two of their other losses were to Baylor and Gonzaga, both of whom will be in the top three of next week’s rankings. Arizona is better at both ends of the floor than Oregon State, especially defensively. The Beavers don’t even rank in the top 100 nationally in defensive efficiency. 10* Arizona

10* Under Spurs/Raptors (6:05 ET): San Antonio had been playing a lot better of late, including big wins over both Milwaukee and Boston. But the key word in that last sentence is “had.” Friday’s loss in Memphis saw Greg Popovich’s team give up 134 points. This is simply not the same strong defensive team we’re used to seeing under Popovich as they let the Grizzlies shoot 52% for the game. But considering they held Milwaukee and Boston below 42%, the Spurs are still capable of playing some good defense. 

The Spurs are 13-4 Over their last 17 games including 4-0 the L4. But we know they can’t possibly be any worse at the defensive end than they were in Memphis. In the same vein, Toronto’s last game should not have gone Over, but they went to OT in Charlotte and that resulted in a 112-110 final score. The Raptors will take the win, but Under bettors had to be salty about losing a game that was tied 100-100 at the end of regulation. Toronto has now held its last seven opponents to 102 pts or less in regulation, so they aren’t having the kind of defensive issues the Spurs have been experiencing of late. 

The big story coming into tonight’s game is that there is a chance that some of Toronto’s injured starters could be returning. Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol and Norman Powell were all injured in a December 18th win over Detroit. Those absences obviously haven’t hurt the Raptors defensively. Of the trio, Powell is the most likely to return tonight. He’s the least important on the offensive end. Even if Gasol or Siakam is able to play here, I wouldn’t expect a ton of points. Toronto doesn’t give up many points and San Antonio is “due” for a low-scoring game. 10* Under Spurs/Raptors

10* Wyoming (7:00 ET): Second home game in four nights for the Cowboys, who just hosted undefeated San Diego State on Wednesday. Predictably, the Pokes came out on the short end of that one, although it ended up being slightly more lopsided than I had anticipated. I took Wyoming +17.5 and they lost by 20. Laramie remains a tough place to play though (because of the elevation) and you should look for the home team to play a lot better Saturday when they host UNLV. Take the points.

UNLV also comes in off a loss, theirs to Boise State by seven. They lost 73-66 as 5.5-point road underdogs. That loss snapped a four-game win streak, the entirety of which came in Vegas. The Rebels haven’t been too good away from home this year, losing five of six games and they’ve been outscored by double digits. Thus I wouldn’t be too confident laying points with this team here, especially with their starting point guard still injured. 

Wyoming has lost three in a row to fall to 5-12 SU. It’s been nearly two months since they were favored to win a game. They've lost three straight overall and certainly don’t want to lose two in a row at home. This is a desperate team right now. There are issues offensively, but it’s not like UNLV can score all that much either. This Saturday night game in the Mountain West has all the makings of a low-scoring slugfest where you'll want to be getting points. 10* Wyoming

8* Drexel (4:00 ET): While I don’t see either of these teams competing for a CAA Championship, I am seeing some value with the team getting points in this Saturday matchup. It’s actually a fade on the favorite, James Madison, a team I don’t approve of laying points in most circumstances. The Dukes, losers of four of five, won the last two times they’ve been chalk. But the last cover, at UNC Wilmington, was by a single point. Three of the last five meetings between these teams have been decided by two points. 

Drexel did not have a good showing Thursday at Towson. They lost 89-73. Full disclosure - I was the Dragons that night. What I did not anticipate was them allowing Towson to shoot a blistering 56.9% from the floor. Drexel had won its two previous games, admittedly both at home, by allowing just 55 and 66 points. The good news is that they are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season after allowing 80+ pts in the last game.

James Madison is now 1-4 SU in conference play after an 80-76  loss to Delaware Thursday night. That was a home game and the Dukes did lead at halftime. They were still up in the final minute, which is when they allowed a GW three-pointer. The loss dropped JMU to 1-7 ATS this year vs. winning teams. Drexel has a 9-8 SU record. I have the Dragons rated as the slightly better team, so I’ll take the points. 8* Drexel

10* Providence (9:00 ET): It’s always tricky laying points on the road, even when you’re a top 10 team like Butler that’s 14-1 SU. But while the Bulldogs are my pick to win the Big East this year, I do feel they are currently a bit overrated at #6 in the polls. This is a tricky spot Friday night at Providence as the Friars have won four straight, all against good teams. Providence won all three games against Butler LY and is 11-3 ATS the L14 meetings (5-1 here at home). Take the points. 

Those last four Providence victories have come against Texas, Georgetown, DePaul and Marquette. The last two were both by one point but also were both road games. Now they get to come back home where they’ve won seven of eight this season, the only loss coming against Penn during what was a late November swoon. Texas lost by 22 here while Georgetown lost by 16. With four wins by four points or less, it may “feel” like Providence is overachieving, but the reality is that this is just the fourth game they’ve been an underdog.

Butler’s only loss was by one point (53-52 at Baylor) and they are 4th nationally in points per game allowed. However, they’ve had a recent close call as well, winning by only two at St. John’s. Providence’s defense improves exponentially here at home as they give up just 59.6 PPG. Butler has gotten a bit lucky with their last two opponents (SJU, Creighton) both shooting very poorly from three-point range. Providence shoots 39.2% at home from behind the arc. 10* Providence

10* Under Hornets/Jazz (9:05 ET): Charlotte plays at the slowest pace in the entire league, meaning their games average the fewest number of possessions. Theoretically, that should make them an “Under team,” but lately that has NOT been the case with their last four games all going Over the total. But tonight’s trip to Utah should put an end to that streak as the Jazz are a really solid defensive team, especially when they are playing at home. Take the Under.

Early on in the season, Utah looked like a disappointment. Not anymore. They’ve gone 12-1 SU since December 11th and are a perfect 7-0 since X-Mas. This was a team I felt was primed to finish in the top four in the Western Conference this year (along with the Lakers, Clippers and Rockets). Other than a wild 128-126 win over defensively inept New Orleans on Monday, the Jazz have held each of their previous five opponents to 104 pts or less. Three of them were held below 100.

Charlotte’s last game (vs Toronto) should not have gone Over, but did because of overtime. That was a 100-100 game at the end of regulation, which would make it three times in the last five games they’ve failed to top 104 points in regulation. So much for being an “Over team.” Advanced metrics hate this Hornets team as they’ve been outscored by one of the five largest margins in the league this year. They only average 104.6 PPG on the road. 10* Under Hornets/Jazz

8* St. Mary's (11:00 ET): As per usual, Gonzaga is the class of the West Coast Conference this year. And as per usual, these two schools are battling it out to determine who's second best. BYU comes in riding a six-game win streak and most of those wins have been VERY convincing. Saturday's 63-38 win over Loyola Marymount was the 4th time during the win streak that they prevailed by at least 25 points. Impressive as that streak is, none of the wins have come in "true" road games. 

St. Mary's is off a very different result here. They were upset, on the road, by Pacific 107-99 as 8.5-pt chalk. As you might have guessed from that final score, it was not a 40 minute game. In fact, it went to FOUR overtimes. Tough loss for the Gaels, who not only had their own five-game win streak snapped, but also blew an eight-point lead with 4:28 to go in regulation. Prior to that, SMU's only two losses were to Dayton (top 15 team) and to Winthrop (by two). I have them bouncing back tonight. 

These WCC rivals do seem fairly even on paper, but I have to go back to BYU's lack of "true" road games. They've played only three and lost two. The only win was by a single point. St. Mary's is 7-1 SU at home, outscoring their opponents by 14.1 PPG. Last year in this building, they destroyed BYU by 22 points. Neither team shot well their last game. Back in their own gym, St. Mary's is the more likely of the two to bounce back in that department. This is a team that's won 22 of its last 28 games overall. 8* St. Mary's

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The NBA's Western Conference features seven teams that are at least five games over .500. All seven should feel pretty safe when it comes to making the playoffs. As for who gets the 8th spot, that's anybody's guess at this point. You would think that a Portland team that made the Conference Finals a season ago would certainly be among that top seven, but they are not. Even after winning on Tuesday, the Blazers are still six games below .500 on the year.

Minnesota is right behind them at 14-22, two back in the win column. The T'wolves had been playing better lately, winning three of four, but that was before running into Memphis on Tuesday and losing 119-112 as a 4.5-point dog. The strangest thing about this T'wolves season is how poorly they've played here at home. They are only 5-11 SU at the Target Center and scoring less than they do on the road. Of course, it hasn't helped that Karl-Anthony Towns has missed so much time. 

Still, even without Towns, the T'wolves were up eight with just eight minutes to go at Memphis Tuesday night. It was the exact opposite for Portland, who led Toronto for all of 18 seconds Tuesday, yet came out ahead 101-99. Let's use those misleading results to our advantage here as the Blazers should NOT be favored on the road here. Prior to sneaking by the Raptors, Portland had gone 1-6 SU/ATS its L7 games, the lone win coming against a bad (and banged up)Washington team. The Blazers have a losing road record (8-13 SU to boot). 10* Minnesota

8* Drexel (6:00 ET): A bit of an early start time in the Colonial as two teams looking to build off wins meet. Drexel, who is the underdog, has actually won two straight and is 4-1 its last 5 games overall. Meanwhile, Towson snapped a three-game losing streak by beating UNC Wilmington on the road Saturday. A pretty compelling case could be made that UNC Wilmington is the weakest team in the CAA this year, so I'm not about to change my view here on the hosts, who are laying too many points. 

Drexel won its last game as an underdog, beating Delaware 61-55. Now that was at home. But it was also last Friday, meaning they've had one additional day to prepare for this game, compared to Towson. The Dragons are 5-1 ATS the past three seasons when having five or six days to prepare. Admittedly, "true" road games have not gone all that well for them so far, but they were able to stick within five at both Temple & Rutgers. That's good enough for me. 

Towson isn't Temple or Rutgers. They, like Drexel, are just a middle of the road CAA team. The Tigers are just 1-5 ATS vs. teams with winning records and Drexel does come in at 9-7 SU overall. Towson is just 7-9 SU including only 3-3 here at home. It was actually just a one-point game in the final minute against UNC Wilmington on Saturday. The Tigers have not won a game by more than seven points since December 4th. They are hardly an ideal candidate to take as a favorite. 8* Drexel

8* Wyoming (9:00 ET): There are just two teams left without a loss and both are in action Wednesday night. But while #5 Auburn (13-0) gets to play at home, #7 San Diego State (15-0) has to travel to Laramie to face Wyoming and lay a big number to boot. I won't sit here and tell you Wyoming is a great team because they certainly aren't. But Laramie is a tough place to play and you can obviously expect the home team to play inspired basketball tonight. Take the points.

Another reason to fade SDSU here is that they are off one of their biggest wins of the season, 77-68 at Utah State, who figures to be the Aztecs' closest competition this year in the Mountain West. That was Saturday and now the Aztecs are hitting the road again. This is the first time all year that they will play B2B "true" road games. They've covered the previous four road games and are also 2-0 SU at neutral sites, but I have to say that - overall - the schedule has not been that challenging for SDSU.

Wyoming's 2020 has started with consecutive losses, but both came on the road. This is a team that may only be 2-8 SU its last 10 games, with one of those wins coming in OT and the other against a non-DI team. But I don't see them being blown out on their home floor this evening. This a really tough set of B2B road games for SDSU with both played at high elevation. Nathan Mensah (respiratory issue) may again have to sit for them. 8* Wyoming

10* Dallas (7:35 ET): It's a very thin line between second and sixth place in the NBA's Western Conference right now, which is where these teams are respectively. Though Denver may be higher in the standings, I've got Dallas rated as the better team as they've posted both a better YTD point differential (+7.4 vs. +4.0) and a better net efficiency rating (+6.8 vs. +2.9). Both of those numbers indicate that tonight's spread should be at least several points higher and I agree, so lay the short number with the Mavericks. 

Both in terms of point differential and net efficiency rating, the Mavs rank 4th best in the entire league. So how are they only in 6th place in their own conference? That's a good question. Going 0-3 in OT games is part of it, plus it's been a pretty pedestrian stretch the last month with the team going just 7-7 SU its L14 games and winning B2B times only once. But I expect them to start to go on a run now. Certainly the numbers indicate they will. Luka Doncic is off yet another big game Monday as the Mavs beat Chicago 118-110 here at home. 

While Dallas gets a six-game homestand to start 2020, Denver is wrapping up a five-game road trip tonight. It's been an "up and down" trip so far as they're 2-2 SU with a loss to the lowly Wizards. They bounced back from that Monday against Atlanta, but this is a tough spot for the Nuggets as they may not have much left in the tank playing a fifth road game in nine days. Defense hasn't been great of late and no team averages more points per possession than Dallas does. The Nuggets have surrendered at least 115 points in five straight games. Back in October, the Mavs went to Denver and won 109-106. 10* Dallas

8* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Raptors are definitely banged up right now, but they should have won last night's home game vs. Portland. They led for all but 18 seconds yet a Carmelo Anthony GW jumper resulted in a 101-99 loss as 2.5-pt favorites. Tonight, the reigning NBA Champs take their act to Charlotte to face a Hornets team they crushed earlier in the year by 36 points. While that was when they were closer to full strength, I'm still expecting a win here. Lay a number that's far too short. 

At 15-24 SU on the year, no one is going to make the claim that Charlotte is a good team. But the reality is they're actually pretty bad. They've been outscored by 6.6 points per game so far and have a net efficiency rating of -6.1, both of which place them among the bottom five teams in the league! Even in an Eastern Conference that has the three worst teams in the league (NY, Cleveland & Atlanta), the Hornets should be further down the standings. They lost by 11 at home to an undermanned Indiana side Monday night, dropping them to 2-13 SU vs. .500 or better teams this season. 

The Raptors are 19-1 SU vs. teams that have losing records, that one loss being last night. It was just the fourth time all year they lost as a favorite. But they are a perfect 6-0 SU as a road favorite. Even with multiple starters missing, Toronto has been able to hold its last six opponents all to 102 pts or fewer. The last time this team was off a loss (Saturday), I backed them at Brooklyn and they delivered an impressive 122-101 win. 8* Toronto

10* Under Knicks/Lakers (10:35 ET): The Knicks have started their four game road trip with a couple of high-scoring losses. They went down 120-112 in Phoenix and then 135-132 to the Clippers. While losing certainly isn't irregular for this moribund franchise, scoring lots of points certainly is. Despite what's gone down in the L2 games, they are still 27th in PPG and 26th in offensive efficiency. After they shot a stunning 57.1% from the floor (and still lost!) Sunday, expect a sharp decline in offense tonight as they play the red hot Lakers. Take the Under.

The Lakers have won five in a row, but many of those games have been "too close for comfort." They led big leads slip away against both Phoenix and New Orleans, then needed a 4Q rally to defeat struggling Detroit Sunday night. They're still 20-0 SU vs. teams with losing records, but I think they'd like to be winning a lot more comfortably. One positive takeaway from the win over Detroit is that they had 20 blocked shots (eight coming from Anthony Davis), a sign they are playing good defense. 

The Lakers only allow 103.6 PPG, so again I think it's going to be a long night offensively for the Knicks. In two of the last four games, LA has held its opponent below 100 points. They are 4th in the league in defensive efficiency. This is a high total for both teams as the Lakers are 12-6 Under and the Knicks 8-4 Under when the total is 220 or higher. The Knicks are 9-5 Under this season after allowing 115+ pts and 6-2 Under the L3 seasons after allowing 130+ pts. 10* Under Knicks/Lakers

8* Syracuse (9:00 ET): Both teams are off pretty crushing defeats, but they were also very different kinds of losses. Virginia Tech was actually thinking upset when they traveled to face rival Virginia on Saturday. Instead, they got absolutely blasted by the Hoos, losing 65-39! Meanwhile, Syracuse lost by 1 (88-87) to Notre Dame here in the Carrier Dome as they allowed 15 made three-pointers. When comparing losses, I think Va Tech is going to struggle more to get over theirs. Lay the points.

Thinking you are going to pull a big upset and then losing by 26 is a cold dose of reality for the Hokies. Having to play a second road game in four nights probably isn't the way to get over it either. Since starting 6-0 with a shocking upset of Michigan State, the Hokies are just 4-4 SU the L8 games. Saturday was the first "true" road game since the season opener. Maybe we're starting to see why this team was picked low in the ACC preseason rankings. 

Syracuse couldn't get a rebound to save its life in the 2H vs. Notre Dame. Good for them then that Va Tech isn't a great rebounding team either. I don't see the Orange dropping B2B home games to a team they've never lost to here at the Carrier Dome. While Va Tech has covered in five of its six visits, they're usually getting a lot more points than this. The Cuse still is allowing just 61.3 PPG at home, so look for a bounce back effort defensively after getting torched by ND's shooters on Saturday. 8* Syracuse

8* Toledo (7:00 ET): I talked a little bit about the MAC over the weekend when I cashed an outright win w/ Northern Illinois at Buffalo. This is very much a wide open conference and the two teams here both think they can win it. But for Toledo, they've had a big time problem covering spreads as its a six-game ATS losing skid coming into Tuesday, not to mention four consecutive SU losses as well. Tonight they face a Kent State team that couldn't have played better in its last game. I'm taking the points with the desperate road underdog. 

Toledo opened conference play with a four-point loss to Ball State on Friday. That was a road game and the Rockets just couldn't get over the hump on a poor shooting night. It's actually been a series of poor shooting efforts as they've connected on only 38.0% of their FG attempts the L5 games. That's pretty shocking for a team that averages 76.9 PPG. My guess is we're going to see them get back on track offensively tonight.

Meanwhile, Kent State responded nicely from a blowout loss to Mississippi State, beating Bowling Green on Friday by a score of 79-61. They were 2.5-pt road underdogs, but shot 50% and led by as many as 22 points. Like I said earlier, they probably could not have played any better. But now they've got to follow that performance against a stronger opponent. The Golden Flashes are a perfect 7-0 SU at home, but they're a little lucky to be 11-3 SU overall as they've won twice in overtime and also have a one-point win at Wright State. This one reeks of an "upset" in the making. 8* Toledo 

8* Ohio (7:00 ET): Another MAC game. Ohio U has fallen to 8-6 SU after dropping three of its last four games. One was to Purdue, which is excusable even at home, but the last two losses both came as favorites. The last one, which took place Saturday, saw the Bobcats lose as 1-pt favorites at Western Michigan, 77-65. That was preceded by a poor effort here in Athens, a 63-55 loss to Campbell as eight-point chalk. I don't see this team losing a third in a row. Lay the short price. 

Eastern Michigan is one of the worst offensive teams in the entire country. They currently rank 330th in efficiency out of 353 D-I schools. Three times in the last four games the Eagles have been held below 50 points!  Two of those were on the road, right before the New Year, at Michigan State and at UNLV. Not like they were gonna win either of those games, but poor efforts nonetheless. So was Saturday's 24-point home loss to Akron. EMU shot just 27.1% in that one. 

You just can't trust a team that's this bad offensively on the road. Ohio is averaging a healthy 76.9 PPG at home, so they should win this one going away. They too are off a couple of bad shooting games, but unlike with Eastern Michigan, there really hasn't been a consistent pattern of that happening. The road team has won the L4 meetings. Time for that to change. Eastern Michigan has not covered any of its last four chances as an underdog. 8* Ohio

8* Oklahoma State (9:00 ET): West Virginia had been doing quite well for itself recently, but figures to drop slightly when the new rankings come out later today as they lost at Kansas Saturday. While there's no shame in that, especially by only a seven-point margin, the Mountaineers nevertheless find themselves in a tough spot Monday as they again have to hit the road, this time heading to Stillwater. They've lost three in a row to the Cowboys, including twice last year. Classic home dog spot. Take the points. 

Oklahoma State is also off a loss here, although theirs was far more embarrassing as they went down to Lubbock and got crushed by Texas Tech, 85-50 (only trailed by 6 at halftime). As you can tell from that final score, it was a rough shooting night for the Pokes as they made only 28.8% of their field goal attempts including an abhorrent 6 of 25 from two-point range! Needless to say, a return home will provide automatic improvement in the shooting department. OSU is also 15-9 ATS off a conference loss the previous two years. 

WVU didn't shoot well in its last game either, getting held to 32.2% by Kansas. The Mountaineers haven't been a good road team in recent years, dropping 17 of 24 outright and that even includes neutral site games. Their only "true" road win this year came at Youngstown State, who is terrible, and they failed to cover that game as 12.5-pt chalk. It's been an impressive 11-2 SU start out of Morgantown, but the team has also been beating up on some weak competition. Playing a second straight road game after facing Ohio State and Kansas is rough. 8* Oklahoma State

10* Under Pacers/Hornets (7:05 ET): In spite of their respective records, it is Indiana that comes into Monday having lost B2B games while Charlotte has won two straight. The Pacers have had to make due w/o Victor Oladipo all season, but now are also missing Malcolm Brogden and possibly T.J. McConnell (who left the last game w/ an ankle injury). The Hornets are a team that should feel pretty lucky to even be 15-23 SU right now as their scoring differential (-6.5 per game) ranks 5th worst in the entire league! I'm taking the Under in this one. 

Now, if you recall, I had the Over in Indiana's last game. That was Saturday (when McConnell got hurt) in a 116-111 loss at lowly Atlanta. The Pacers were 7-point favorites heading into that one, but had no answer for the Hawks' Trae Young, who had 41 points. A disastrous 1st quarter (allowed 43 pts!) doomed Indiana in that game. While I'm not about to lay points with them here, I do see them playing better at the defensive end tonight. 

Charlotte ended 2019 on a six-game losing streak, but has started its New Year w/ a pair of three-point wins over Cleveland and Dallas. The latter was a real shocker as the Hornets came into Big D as 11.5-point underdogs. Note the 123-120 win came in overtime though (103-103 at end of regulation)  and required Charlotte to overcome a 12-point 4Q deficit. The Hornets play at the slowest tempo in the league and are only averaging 104.4 PPG. They aren't a good shooting team either. This has all the makings of a low-scoring game. 10* Under Pacers/Hornets

8* Over Grizzlies/Suns (8:05 ET): Part of me is a little trepidacious about taking the Over with Memphis one night after they exploded for 140 points on 51.0% overall shooting, which included 18 of 39 from three-point range. But this is a team that's now gone Over in four straight as well as 10 of its last 12 games. And the Grizz are matched up with a Suns squad that's been delivering some pretty similar results as six of its last eight games have gone Over. Take the Over here. 

With the Suns, who I was on Friday (Game of the Week), 14 of their 19 games have gone Over and that's with all but three having an O/U line of at least 220 points. The Over is 5-2 here when the total is 230 pts or higher. Them coming through against the Knicks (won 120-112 as 7-pt chalk) made it four straight ATS wins as well. This is a team that ranks in the top 10 in offensive efficiency and now they have Deandre Ayton back in the starting lineup. They average 116.9 PPG at home. 

This is not the same Memphis team of years' past as they are playing fast. Only three teams in the league - Milwaukee, Houston and Washington - average more possessions per game. So that helps. So does the fact that the Grizzlies are not a good defensive team as they give up 116.5 PPG. Both teams are in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. The first two meetings of the year both stayed Under, but that's because each time the losing side shot poorly from 3-pt range. Not this time. 8* Over Grizzlies/Suns

10* Over Purdue/Illinois (8:00 ET): The Big 10 is absolutely loaded this year. We're talking eight teams in the top 24 of the KenPom rankings and 12 in the top 44! Count these two among the lot as Purdue is a team we still have rated very highly despite five losses. Illinois also has five losses and would qualify as the 12th best team in the conference, but there has probably never been a better 12th best team in a conference in history. I like this matchup to go Over the total. 

Purdue's last three games have all gone Over. Now that comes with a bit of an asterisk considering their last game went to double overtime. The Boilermakers pulled out an 83-78 win over Minnesota. While that game was just 62-62 at the end of regulation, you'll notice the O/U line for tonight is much smaller and we're not going to need a tremendous offensive effort by either team to get this one Over. Purdue has had its issues scoring on the road, but Illinois isn't an outstanding defensive team by any means. 

However, count on the Illini shooting better tonight than they did vs. Michigan State on Thursday. They finished the game at a dreadful 29.3% from the field, obviously their worst shooting night of the season so far. But that was on the road. At home, this team is averaging 86.7 points per game on 51.6% shooting! Purdue is strong defensively, but this will be a challenge to hold the Illini in check here in Champaign. Most Illinois totals are much higher. They have gone 7-1 Over the L3 seasons coming off a game where they scored 60 pts or less. 10* Over Purdue/Illinois

10* Minnesota (7:30 ET): The Big 10 is absolutely loaded this year. We're talking eight teams in the top 24 of the KenPom rankings and 12 in the top 44! That would leave only two outliers and one of them is in play here as it's Northwestern traveling to Minnesota Sunday night. The Wildcats are most definitely the second worst team in the conference and the gap between them and the worst team (Nebraska) is actually smaller than the gap between N'western and the top 12 teams. So I'm laying the points in this one. 

Despite the gap in talent here, the line has actually come DOWN, which surprises me. Perhaps bettors are looking at the fact that Minnesota is just three days removed from a double overtime loss to Purdue. Losing that game is obviously disappointing for the Gophers, but they still covered (were +7) against a really good team. It was their 4th consecutive ATS win going back to last month's big upset of then undefeated Ohio State. While Minnesota has been a dog in four of its last five games, they are 5-1 ATS as favorites this season as well. 

Northwestern, who has been off since 12/29, is on a three-game losing streak. All three losses were close (decided by a total of 11 pts) with the most recent being a 67-66 loss to Hartford as 16-point favorites. While close, that's a BAD loss. The previous two years have seen the Wildcats go just 2-9 ATS when off 3 or more consecutive losses. They're also 2-5 SU/ATS when playing w/ 5 or 6 days rest. So this really isn't a great spot for them. I see Northwestern struggling to score here, much the same way they did at Purdue (only 44 pts) as Minnesota allows only 62.5 PPG at home. 10* Minnesota

10* Over Pacers/Hawks (7:35 ET): I don't figure Atlanta will do very well in this spot. They are playing in the second night of a back to back and that's a situation they're already a horrendous 0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS in this season. If that record isn't bad enough, they are being outscored by an incredible 25.0 points per game in those seven losses. Making this B2B even tougher than usual is the fact they were spotted an 18-point 1Q lead in Boston last night and couldn't hold it, losing 109-106 to the Celtics. Look for this game to go Over as the tired Hawks figure to allow plenty of points. 

Defense has been a problem for Atlanta all season. They are 28th in the league in efficiency giving up over 1.1 points per possession. Only Washington, who is playing some historically bad defense, allows more points per game. In those seven losses the Hawks have taken when playing the second night of a back to back, they have given up an average of 125.1 PPG. All signs points to a long night for the home team here and them giving up a lot of points to Indiana. 

The Pacers haven't been shy about scoring recently, reaching 112 pts in four of their last five games. Problem is they've also given up 113+ in five of their last six, including a 124-116 home loss to Denver Thursday night. Malcolm Brogden (back) will be sitting next to Victor Oladipo on the bench for this one, but for all the reasons listed above, expect Indiana to still score plenty. Brogden has hardly played at all during a stretch in which Indiana has gone 4-1 Over its L5 games. Atlanta plays at a pretty fast pace (4th in adj tempo), which helps. 10* Over Pacers/Hawks

10* Toronto (6:05 ET): Though they've lost 16 of the last 17 meetings with the Raptors, the Nets are likely to come into this game irrationally confident due to the fact they are getting Caris LeVert back in the lineup. LeVert, along w/ Kyrie Irving, has missed substantial time due to injury (thumb surgery). But just how effective can he be in his first game back, following an almost two month absence? Brooklyn is also on a season-worst four game losing streak right now. The wrong team is favored here. 

While just how effective LeVert will be tonight can certainly be debated, one thing is for certain. Toronto is going to shoot a lot better than it did in an ugly 84-76 loss at Miami Thursday night. That loss, which marked the first time in three years the Raptors were held below 80 points, saw them run into a tricky Heat zone defense and they shot a woeful 6 of 42 from three-point range. In addition to simple progression to the mean, another reason the Raptors' offense should improve tremendously in this game is the fact Brooklyn has allowed 120+ pts in B2B games for the first time all season. 

While Brooklyn is getting back one of its big stars, Toronto is still waiting on Pascal Siakam to come back. But they've been dealing with key players being in and out of the lineup all season and have still managed a 23-12 SU record. Defensively, there are no issues for the defending champs as they've held four straight opponents under 100 pts (wow!) and allow only 102.1 PPG for the season on the road. They are 13-1 SU vs. sub.-500 teams (Nets are 16-17 SU) and covered both times after they previously held their last opponent below 90 pts. 10* Toronto

8* Northern Arizona (6:00 ET): All of a sudden, Northern Arizona has lost three in a row. But all three games were on the road and two of the losses came by two points. The Lumberjacks return to Flagstaff Saturday for this evening matchup with Big Sky rival Weber State. NAU has been a solid team at the betting window thus far, going 6-3 ATS, and they've got some big time revenge on the mind here as they've lost all four matchups with Weber State the L2 seasons (also 0-4 ATS). 

Weber State was very close to entering this game on its own three-game losing skid. But after opening conference play with a 79-77 home loss to Eastern Washington, the Wildcats were able to sneak by Idaho on Monday, 69-68. But they did not cover as 9-point chalk. This will be Weber State's first conference away game and so far the road has been unkind as they are 1-6 SU and averaging just 58.6 PPG outside of Ogden. This is actually one of the longer road trips for most Big Sky teams. 

Admittedly, Northern Arizona isn't too used to being the favorite. It's been the case just ONE time in that 6-3 ATS start. Sure enough, they happened to play arguably their worst game of the season, losing 85-66 here at home to Cal Davis. But I don't see history repeating itself Saturday. The Lumberjacks average 85 PPG at home and are also a better defensive team than Weber State as they allow just 61.2 PPG in Flagstaff. Weber State has just TWO wins over D-I opponents so far and they've come by a total of six points. 8* Northern Arizona

8* Northern Illinois (2:00 ET): Northern Illinois lost its last game, 85-84 to Green Bay, as a 6.5-point home favorite. They've had plenty of time to stew over that defeat as it took place all the way back on December 21st. Now they'll hit the road for the MAC opener, taking on perennial conference heavyweight Buffalo. But in addition to being motivated by that outright loss they suffered two weeks ago, the Huskies won't be intimidated here. They've upset the Bulls each of the last two times they've faced them! Take the points. 

This Buffalo team is not as strong as those of the last couple years. Former HC Nate Oats bolted for Alabama after guiding the program to a 32-4 SU record LY and its second straight Round of 32 appearance in the NCAA Tournament. Unless the Bulls run the table, they won't match LY's WL record as they enter this game at 9-4 SU. They did hand an overrated DePaul team its 1st loss back in December and they can score (80.8 PPG). But I don't consider this the favorite to win the MAC this year. In fact, I currently have four teams in the conference rated better. 

Northern Illinois isn't one of those four, but this is too many points for Buffalo to be laying in this spot. The Huskies were in a tough spot for that home loss to Green Bay as they were coming off four consecutive road games, two of them out on the West Coast. It was their first time back in DeKalb in nearly a month. While they're back on the road today, they covered the last two times they were a dog and those were against better teams (St. Mary's, Pitt). The Huskies allow fewer PPG than Buffalo does, by a pretty substantial margin (63.5 vs. 76.2). 8* Northern Illinois

8* Virginia Tech (2:00 ET): How appropriate I would be stepping out for this rivalry game! The annual battle for the Commonwealth Cup was my 10* Game of the Year in College Football and I had Virginia has they ended a frustrating 15-year losing streak to Va Tech with an outright upset. On the basketball court, however, the in-state rivalry has been owned by the Hoos. True to form, I'll be backing the underdog in this one as I feel Virginia is living off its reputation from the last several years. This team is nowhere near as good as it was the last two years. Take the points.

One year after suffering the humiliation of being the first #1 seed to ever lose to a #16 in the NCAA Tournament, Virginia bounced back to win the National Championship. This is a program that we've been consistently high on throughout Tony Bennett's tenure. Once again, the Cavaliers are leading the country in points allowed (47.3 per game). But they are pretty bad offensively, ranking an ugly 178th in efficiency. Honestly, even at 10-2 SU, I'm not sure they deserved to be ranked in the top 25. The Cavs have yet to score more than 65 in a game this season, so they're not a team I'd be confident betting as a favorite - even with that defense. Sure enough, they are 3-8 ATS in that role so far this season. After covering the first two games of the season, UVA is just 1-9 ATS its L10 overall. 

Virginia Tech is 10-3 SU and comes in riding a four-game win streak. While they've played just one "true" road game so far (won it, at Clemson), you can't say the Hokies aren't battle tested. They beat Michigan State in Maui (71-66 as 13-point dogs) and have also faced Duke. Since losing to the Blue Devils, Va Tech has given up an average of just 49 PPG in its 4-game win streak. In what figures to be a low-scoring game, grabbing the points seems like the right move. Plus, Va Tech is the much better three-point shooting team here. 8* Virginia Tech

10* Southern Utah (9:00 ET): We head out to Big Sky country for this one and I think Southern Utah is ready to snap its losing streak to Montana. Since joining the Big Sky Conference, Southern Utah has NEVER beaten Montana, losing all 12 head to head matchups. They haven't had much luck at the betting window in those games either, failing to cover seven in a row (all double digit losses). Yet it speaks volumes that the Thunderbirds come in as the favorites this time around (never happened before) and deservedly so. Lay the short number. 

Another streak on the line here is Montana's six-game conference win streak. They haven't lost a Big Sky game since March 7th of last year when they were upset by Portland State. But this year's Golden Grizzlies simply aren't as good as past editions. Though they've opened 2-0 SU in conference play, those wins were at home and close. They are 0-6 SU on the road so far, scoring only 59.5 PPG. They are also just 1-5 ATS as underdogs, losing all six games outright. They are just 3-15 SU their L18 times as a dog. 

Southern Utah is the better team here. The Thunderbirds rank 2nd in the Big Sky in offensive rebound rate. They have also won four in a row here in Cedar City where they are averaging 92.8 PPG. The key here is to get to 73 points, very doable, as Montana has yet to win a game when allowing that many. The Golden Grizzlies have three players who have accounted for 81% of all points the L5 games. That's not a lot of balance. This is SUU's "time to shine." 10* Southern Utah.

8* Toronto (7:35 ET): Oddsmakers seem to be doubting the Raptors in this matchup of top Eastern Conference teams. The defending NBA Champs have certainly proven that they are still going to be a force despite losing Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard. I know they've been dogged by injuries more than just about any team besides Golden State (oh, the irony!) but even w/o Pascal Siakam the Raptors were able to go to Boston recently and win by 16. I'll take the points in this revenge spot.

Miami had a five-game winning streak going into their final contest of 2019. But four of those five wins had been by four points or less, including three straight by a total of five pts. Those close calls caught up with them in Washington where they suffered a shocking outright loss as 14-point favorites to a severely undermanned Wizards team. Thus, the Heat have now failed to cover four in a row. While they are 15-1 SU at home, I don't buy that they should be laying more than three points to this particular opponent. 

As alluded to above, this is a revenge game for the Raptors. Almost exactly one month ago, they lost at home to the Heat 121-110 as 5.5-point favorites. That was Kyle Lowry's first game back from his injury and he shot terribly, missing all 11 three-point attempts in addition to his first 11 shots overall. That won't happen again. The Raptors swept the season series from the Heat last year. While Miami is coming off a terrible defensive effort (gave up a 42-point quarter), Toronto has held three straight opponents below 100 points. That makes them attractive as the underdog. 8* Toronto

8* UNC Wilmington (6:30 ET): A pretty ugly matchup to ring in the New Year with, out of the Colonial. Both teams are already 0-2 in conference play. James Madison started by losing two straight at home, to Hofstra by six and to Northeastern by 16. UNC Wilmington's two CAA defeats both came on the road as they lost by 14 at Delaware and by five at Drexel. Overall, the Seahawks have now lost seven in a row. But it isn't often JMU is favored, especially on the road. I'll take the points.

UNC Wilmington did recently have team assist leader Kai Toews bolt the program. That was right before conference play began. I know he ws the starting point guard. But considering the Seahawks had lost five in a row with Toews on the floor, I don't think he'll be all that missed. Look for UNCW to get back to scoring more in this game as James Madison is allowing 76.5 PPG. I know little has gone right for this team so far, but this is a rare time the Seahawks should feel confident that they can win.

These teams also have a history of close games. Three of the last four meetings were decided by three points or less. The road team won both times last season, but JMU has yet to be a road favorite at all this season. In fact, the Dukes have been favored in only five games total. Their defensive issues are pretty glaring as five of their last seven opponents have gone for at least 82 points. JMU also is only shooting 36.9% away from home. 8* UNC Wilmington

8* Utah State (11:00 ET): So a big key here is that Aggies' leading scorer Sam Merrill has been upgraded to probable. The last game Merrill played saw Utah State upset Florida down in Miami, 65-62, led by his 21 points. But even without him, Utah State was able to put 129 points on the board Saturday, albeit against Eastern Oregon. This remains a very underrated team, one that's going to compete with still undefeated San Diego State for Mountain West Conference supremacy. Even if Merrill doesn't play tonight, we'll still lay the short number tonight in Vegas. 

UNLV is only 6-8 SU and that's after winning their last two games. Both were here at home as they rolled to double digit victories against Eastern Michigan and Robert Morris. But Utah State is a team that the Rebels have struggled to deal with the last couple seasons. It's an 0-3 SU/ATS record the L3 meetings and it's tough to see this one going any better. The Rebels are 2-7 ATS this season vs. teams with winning records and they're going to struggle to score here vs. a team that allows a FG% of just 38.2 on the year.

Offensively, USU is 18th in the country at 81.8 PPG. The last game, where they blitzed a NAIA school, obviously helped to inflate that scoring average. But they had plenty of big scoring nights prior to that and remember they were without Merrill vs. Eastern Oregon. I seem to be a bit higher on the Aggies than the marketplace is. Perhaps the reason we're getting such a good number on USU is because prior to them upsetting Florida, they'd failed to cover six in a row. But whatever the reason for the short spread, I'm laying it. 8* Utah State

10* Over Clippers/Kings (5:05 ET): I wouldn't go counting on Sacramento to play anything resembling "stellar defense" tonight. More than just about anybody, the Kings are looking to say "goodbye" to 2019 as they've now lost seven in a row and failed to cover the spread six times. Some of these losses have been close (4 of the last 5 have been by 5 pts or less), but the common theme has been lack of defense. They've given up at least 110 points in all but one of the seven consecutive defeats. 

Compared to the Kings, the Clippers are obviously in a much better position entering 2020. While they're looking to rebound from a 120-107 upset loss at the hands of the Utah Jazz (were 7-point favorites), I'm willing to call the Clips the third best team in the West right now. They beat the Lakers on X-Mas, though they needed to come from behind to do so. Had they not come back in that one, then it would actually be a three-game losing streak entering tonight. Still, LA's record is 23-11 and they are outscoring opponents by 6.5 points per game. 

The road has been a little tricky for the Clips however and that's why I'm not about to lay this number. Their road record is just 9-8 SU and that includes X-Mas, which really wasn't a "true" road win. It's not like the Clippers' offense suffers away from home as their scoring average (114.5 PPG) is pretty much in line w/ what they average at Staples Center (116.1). The issue is defense as they go from allowing 105.5 PPG at home to 112.3 on the road. Compounding matters here is they just lost one of their top defenders, Patrick Beverley, to a wrist injury. 10* Over Clippers/Kings

8* Temple (2:00 ET): Under 1st year HC Aaron McKie, Temple has started 8-3. The Owls just beat a Rider team that had previously won five in a row and did so fairly convincingly, winning 77-68 as a 9-point favorite. That was a nice bounce back for McKie's team, which had just lost to Miami FL by one point (78-77) four days earlier. Something notable about this group is that it ranks #24 in the country in defensive efficiency as its opponents are shooting only 36.2% for the year. 

UCF also suffered only three losses in non-conference play. Two of them were by just a single point, the most recent coming 10 days ago when they fell 53-52 at Oklahoma. The Knights are 9-3 SU overall and 5-1 ATS vs. teams with winning record. They were nine-point underdogs to the Sooners, so that was an easy cover despite them shooting just 31.3% from the field. Still, I don't feel UCF is in Temple's same class as they are really lacking in signature wins and aren't as strong at either end of the floor. 

Safe to say, oddsmakers made a mistake not opening Temple as a larger favorite. Even though UCF has suffered just one loss by more than one point, look for them to struggle to score against the strong Temple defense today. The Owls already have "true" road wins over LaSalle, USC and Texas A&M and can also say they hung tough on a neutral court vs. Maryland. McKie inherited a pretty experienced team and we saw what they were capable of in that 27-point beatdown of St. Joe's earlier this month. 8* Temple

10* Seton Hall (8:30 ET): DePaul has lost only one game this year, but they're a team I don't put much stock in. Now that Big East play is about to begin, expect the Blue Demons' 12-1 SU record to take a major hit. I count at least seven teams in the conference that I rate higher than DePaul right now. One of them is Seton Hall, who comes to Chicago tonight. The Pirates have been without their best player, Myles Powell (21.2 PPG), due to a concussion. But there seems to be some positive news on that situation as Powell could play tonight. Whether or not he does, take the Pirates. 

Seton Hall has already proven that they can win without Powell as they went to Maryland and handed the Terps their first loss of the year. I think it speaks volumes that Seton Hall isn't an underdog here, even with Powell's uncertain status. With Powell, they are a top 25 team in my view. After the upset of Maryland, things did get a bit "dicey" for a half against Prairie View A&M last week. But they wound up shooting 57.6% in the second half and still won by 20 points. 

The official report on Powell is that he "definitely" will be back for the Georgetown game on Friday. He has practiced the L2 days. Again, with or without him, Seton Hall is the call here. DePaul has had plenty of close wins this season, the most recent coming against Northwestern nine days ago. But they've failed to cover three of the last four games including their only SU, which was here at home to Buffalo. Seton Hall has double revenge here for a pair of losses LY that were by a combined five points. They were favored in both games. Seton Hall shows who's best! 10* Seton Hall

10* Over Nets/T'wolves (8:05 ET): Two games ago, Brooklyn put forth one of the most heinous shooting nights in league history, making only 26.9% of its field goal attempts. That was the lowest shooting percentage by any team in almost seven years. They made just EIGHT two-pointers, the fewest in a NBA game since 1950! While shooting was slightly better Saturday night in Houston, they still made only 40% from the field and failed to break 100 points (lost 108-98).

Speaking of heinous, Minnesota is 1-12 SU in December (2-10-1 ATS). The lone was by one point at Sacramento. As you might expect, the Timberwolves have had their fair share of shooting issues as well. The last six games have seen them shoot below 40% overall and the most points they've scored in any of those games is 106. As a result, the Under has hit in all six games.

While I wouldn't look to either of these teams for shooting tips, here's the thing. Both are due to start making some shots. This poor rash of shooting cannot possibly continue. I don't consider either to be a great defensive team. Brooklyn allows 113.6 PPG on the road while Minnesota gives up 114.9 PPG at home. On offense, both still average slightly more than 110 PPG. So this is a case where if we can just get back to "average," then the Over is assured. It was a 127-126 game when they met in Brooklyn back in October. Granted there was a lot more star power on the court back then. But this total is just too low even if the Twolves' starts join the Nets' Kyrie Irving on the bench. 10* Over Nets/T'wolves

10* Under Thunder/Raptors (6:05 ET): Last night saw Toronto get revenge for its Christmas Day loss as they went to Boston and beat the Celtics 113-97 as a seven-point underdog. Making that win all the more impressive is how short-handed the Raptors came into the game. Three of the team's top seven rotation players were out, including leading scorer Pascal Siakam. While Kyle Lowry said afterwards that the team "just doesn't care" about the injuries, this is admittedly a tough spot having to play a back to back, even at home. 

Speaking of surprises, Oklahoma City has done much better than advertised after losing both Russell Westbrook and Paul George in the offseason. They are currently 7th in the Western Conference, something that no one expected at the start of the season. The Thunder have won five of six including a two point win in Charlotte Friday night. 

This looks like a tough spot for both teams. Toronto is short-handed and playing in the second night of a back to back. Oklahoma City is playing its second road game in three nights. The Thunder have scored only 201 total points the L2 games and come in averaging just 102.6 PPG on the road for the season. The Raptors held Boston to just 97 points last night in an incredible effort. This has all the makings of a low-scoring game. 10* Under Thunder/Raptors

10* Brooklyn (8:05 ET): Both teams are off results they'd just as soon forget. The Rockets lost on X-Mas Day to the suddenly resurgent Warriors, 116-104, as an 11.5-point favorite. The following night saw the Nets lost at home to the sorry Knicks, 94-82 as seven-point chalk. Something will have to give here as both teams are perfect ATS on the year when coming off a DD loss. Brooklyn is 5-0 after losing by 10 or more while Houston is 3-0 vs. the number. 

I'm taking the points, even though the Nets remain short-handed. Kyrie Irving isn't even accompanying the team on this road trip and Caris LeVert is still out as well, even though he's reportedly "getting closer" to returning. Spencer Dinwiddie (who has been a godsend for this team amidst all the absences) said it best when he said it was a case of "too mugh egg nog" for the Nets Thursday night. They shot 26.9% from the field, which was the lowest FG% by any NBA team in almost seven years. Their eight two-point field goals were the fewest made in a game since 1950. Needless to say, the Nets are going to shoot a whole heck of a lot better tonight. 

Houston isn't any "great shakes" defensively as they are a mediocre 16th in efficiency. That's three spots lower than Brooklyn. Obviously, the Rockets offense is a concern for the Nets. But Houston, factoring out James Harden, was also victimized by poor shooting in the last game. They made only 37.0% against the Warriors w/ players not named "Harden" combining to miss 54 of 82 attempts. While the Rockets' shooting figures to improve just like the Nets, I just don't see them running away w/ this one, especially w/ a back to back in New Orleans looming tomorrow night. 10* Brooklyn

10* Boise State (6:00 ET): Cal State Northridge has made one of the more curious "turnarounds" over the last month or so. The Matadors are by no means a "good team." That can easily be confirmed by their poor 3-10 SU record. But they have been cashing tickets at the betting window recently. Since starting 0-4 ATS, they've come back to cover six of their last seven games and that doesn't even include an 85-50 blowout of San Francisco State (non-board team) earlier in the week. 

But I don't look for this ATS surge to continue. My own power rankings say tonight's line vs. Boise State is WAY off. Boise State is 8-2 ATS its last 10 games and is coming off a strong showing in Hawaii in the Diamond Head Classic over Christmas. After losing the first game (to Georgia Tech), the Broncos ended up finishing fifth in the tournament by beating UTEP and Portland. Maybe its because they just played three games in four days. But bettors aren't taking Boise State seriously enough in my opinion. 

This should be an easy double digit win for the home team. They are 5-1 SU in Boise, outscoring opponents by an impressive 24.5 PPG. CS-Northridge is 1-8 SU away from home and giving up 83.9 PPG in those contests. While the Matadors just got All-American Lamine Diane back from suspension, Boise State just added a transfer to its ranks as Abu Kigab debuted in Hawaii. Cal State Northridge has lost 52 of the last 59 times it has been an underdog. 10* Boise State

8* Central Michigan (12:00 ET): I am absolutely on board with the notion that Purdue is better than its record. The KenPom ratings have the Boilermakers rated as the 13th best team in the country while I've got them at #22 in my own power ratings. This despite them already having five losses, the most recent coming exactly one week ago to Butler (on a neutral court). But they're also coming in way overvalued for today's tilt with Central Michigan. I'm taking the points.

Central Michigan has the same 7-5 SU record as Purdue. Obviously, they have not faced the same level of competition. But they should have handed then-unbeaten DePaul its first loss back on November 26th as they led by double digits at halftime (on the road!) only to fail to even cover the DD spread! More recently, the Chippewas have lost three straight, all on the road. But after a 10-day break, I think they're ready to compete. Those L3 road games were all played within a 10-day span. 

Central Michigan can definitely score as they average 87.9 PPG, which is 3rd most in the entire country. Furthermore, they are top 10 in adjusted tempo, so they play fast. There have been a couple "clunkers" from the Chips (against Minnesota & Valpo) and Purdue is very good defensively. But I still see the underdog scoring enough to stay within what is a very generous number. Purdue is only 314th in the country in points per game and their 2nd leading scorer is dealing with a concussion. 8* Central Michigan

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): The Magic have already beaten the Sixers once this year and they were actually favored in that game. Now they're an underdog and catching Philadelphia at what looks to be a very opportune time. Philly just played one of its best games of the year as they blew out the Bucks on X-Mas Day. Can you say letdown? Take the points. 

The 121-109 win over Milwaukee was the Sixers' third consecutive win and cover. They are now 23-10 SU, which is the 4th best record in what is rapidly becoming a "top heavy" Eastern Conference. But while beating the Bucks was very impressive (led by as many as 29!), the win came at home where the Sixers are now 16-2 SU. But on the road, they have a losing record (7-8 SU). I can all but guarantee that we won't seeing a repeat of the Sixers' shooting on Christmas. They hit a franchise record 21 three-pointers. 

We know Orlando can play defense as they are allowing just 104.9 PPG, which is third fewest in the entire NBA. They held the Bulls under 40% from the field in Monday's 103-95 victory. That snapped a three-game losing skid and was just the second win for the Magic in their L8 games. But this is a pretty clear "ambush spot" from where I sit. Leading scorer Nikola Vucevic is back in the lineup and he makes this a pretty formidable team. 10* Orlando

10* Over Cavs/Celtics (4:05 ET): These teams met roughly three weeks ago, right here in Boston, and the Celtics rolled to a 110-88 win and cover as 13-point favorites. There really is no reason to expect this game will go much differently, although the Celtics are at the minor disadvantage of having played on X-Mas. Still though, this is a game they "should" win. But laying this many points isn't something I'd typically advise. What I would advise though is to play the Over. 

In that last meeting, Cleveland had an awful shooting night, making only 39.6% of their field goal attempts including 7 of 31 from three-point range. Look for them to shoot better here. For the first time all season, the Cavs have won three straight. Now all three wins were at home, close and against bad teams. But at least they have some of the dreaded "momentum" (still hate that word!) coming into this December rematch. 

The problem Cleveland will have though is the defensive end. The only other time the Cavs took the court on 3+ days rest so far this season, they wound up giving up 127 points to a Detroit team that is hardly an offensive juggernaut. They are 29th in the league in defensive efficiency. Boston is #5 in offensive efficiency and has averaged 113.8 points over its last five games. They should not have much difficulty putting points on the board in this one. They shoot 47.5% overall/38.6% from three/84% from the FT line at home. 10* Over Cavs/Celtics

10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): Tip your cap to the Nets, who have managed to stay relevant despite lengthy injury absences from both Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert. Of course, Kevin Durant hasn't even suited up this season, but that was expected when he was signed. Still, when Irving and Durant were both brought in, there was a lot of internal optimism from the franchise. Being 7th in the Eastern Conference probably isn't want they had in mind, but given the injuries, it's not all that bad. This team should still easily make the playoffs. 

The Knicks lost out on both Irving and Durant in free agency and when then happened, the team was pretty much resigned to another losing year. Sure enough, New York comes in at 7-24 SU. Only the Hawks have a worse record and point differential. The Knicks don't score much (tied for last at 103.5 PPG) nor do they play very good defense. They're currently on a three-game losing skid that has seen them allow an average of 124.3 PPG. 

The emergence of Spencer Dinwiddie has been huge for the Nets as he's come in and averaged 26.1 PPG on 44.5% shooting as a starter. He's scored 20+ points in 16 of his last 18 games including a career-best seven in a row. Brooklyn is 8-3 ATS its L11 games and clearly superior to their NY rivals. The Knicks are a miserable 3-12 SU on the road, 0-8 SU in division games and 0-6 ATS when playing with exactly two days rest. The Nets should have no problem winning this game by a big margin. 10* Brooklyn

10* Under Wizards/Pistons (7:05 ET): Washington has one of the more interesting statistical profiles in the league. They are 4th in offensive efficiency (trailing only "heavyweight teams" Dallas, Milwaukee and Houston) but dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency. That's simply not a "winning formula," so it's not a surprise to me that they are stuck near the bottom of the Eastern Conference with a 9-20 SU record. Of course, given the statistical profile, it's also not a surprise to see that the Wizards are one of the top Over teams (17-11-1). 

Detroit again finds itself mired in mediocrity. They are clearly better than the worst teams in the Eastern Conference, but also aren't nearly good enough to win a playoff series. Right now, just making the playoffs seems unlikely as the Pistons are 11-20 SU, which is barely better than the Wizards! They've lost five in a row (0-5 ATS as well) and have been outscored by over 15 PPG during that stretch. 

The Pistons' recent defensive efforts leave a lot to be desired. Given that and who they are facing tonight, you might be thinking Over is the right call. But O/U lines, such as this one, are starting to get a bit high for Wizards games. A big reason for tonight's high O/U line is that these teams just met 10 days ago here in Detroit and it was a ridiculous shooting night by both sides. Washington ended up winning 133-119. Don't expect anything like that here as the teams are likely to come out rusty after the holiday break. The dichotomy of "all offense, no defense" for the Wizards has to tighten moving forward. Oddsmakers aren't going to let this team keep going Over "all the time."  10* Under Wizards/Pistons

8* Denver (10:35 ET): They don't have the star power of many of their Western Conference contemporaries, but the Nuggets storm into Christmas night on a seven-game win streak and in second place, which is right where they finished last year. I think the most surprising thing about the team this year has been its defense, which leads the league by giving up just 102.1 PPG. They are big favorites here at home vs. New Orleans, but for good reason. Lay the points. 

The Pelicans have had a dreadful 1st half, which has included a 13-game losing streak. They snapped that last week with a 107-99 win at Minnesota, a team dealing w/ its own DD losing skid currently. Then after a four-point loss at Golden State, NO won again, surprising Portland Monday as six-point dogs, 102-94. The bad news here for the Pelicans is that they are 0-4 SU/ATS this season coming off a SU win as a dog. This will also be their 4th straight game on the road. 

Denver is not an easy place to play either. The Nuggets have a 13-3 SU home record and tighten up their already stout defense a little more here. Believe it or not, Denver has some revenge here for an Opening Night loss in the Big Easy. It's really surprising to see that they are 0-5 ATS vs. the Pelicans since the start of last season with three outright defeats. Look for that streak to come to a resounding end tonight as the Pelicans are no match for the vastly superior Nuggets. New Orleans allows the most points per game in the Western Conference. 8* Denver

10* LA Lakers (8:00 ET): These teams haven't met since Opening Night when the Clippers dealt the Lakers a 122-112 defeat. I played the Clips in that one, stating I was unconvinced that the Lakers could emerge the top team in the Western Conference. While I was right about the game, I was wrong about the Lakers' prospects as they come into X-Mas leading the West w/ a 24-6 record. That said, they are currently on a season-worst three-game losing streak (LeBron sat Sunday's game vs. Denver). With LeBron obviously playing I have the Lakers getting it done in this revenge spot. 

The Clippers are currently 4th in the West with a 22-10 record. They have a similar YTD point differential to the Lakers and another thing they have in common is some recent stumbles. The Clips have dropped three of five, including a 118-112 decision at OKC on Sunday. Also like the Lakers, this team is much better when both of its superstars - Kawhi Leonard and Paul George - both play (11-3 SU in those games). But I'm not convinced that they are as good as the Lakers. 

The fact that the Lakers have lost three in a row is pretty significant in that it should have them really motivated (as if they needed any extra motivation) for this X-Mas Day game. Plus there's the revenge angle. Following the Opening Night loss to the Clippers, the Lakers would go on to win 24 of their next 26 games. I wouldn't put much stock into the three-game losing streak as one of the losses came against Milwaukee and another w/o LeBron. The Lakers rate higher than the Clippers in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Lay the short number. 10* LA Lakers

10* Under Bucks/Sixers (2:35 ET): Christmas is widely considered to be the time we can start making conclusions about the NBA season. At the moment, I don't think there's any debating that Milwaukee is the best team in the league right now. After posting a NBA-high 60 regular season wins LY, the Bucks are well on their way to surpassing that mark in 2020 as they've started 27-4 and have won 20 of their last 21 games. The thing is they have been dominant at BOTH ends of the floor, ranking 2nd in offensive efficiency (behind only Dallas) and 1st in defensive efficency (by a wide margin).

Philadelphia figures to be in the mix for the #4-#6 seed in the Eastern Conference. I have them below not just Milwaukee, but Boston and Toronto as well. After suffering three losses in a row, including their first two of the year at home, the Sixers come into X-Mas off B2B wins. They posted 125 pts in each of them, but note those came against Washington and Detroit. The former is dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. But the 76ers do have to be respected at the defensive end where they rank #7 in defensive efficiency.

It's the offensive end where Philly can sometimes be pretty pedestrian. They are a mediocre 14th in offensive efficiency. Look no further than last week's loss to Miami (where I cashed the Under) for evidence of this team's offensive shortcomings. Facing a zone, they scored just 104 pts. The games before & after that, they were held below 100. Milwaukee is deadly at the offensive end, but the fact the 76ers allow just 101.1 PPG at home must be respected. That's #1 in the league among home teams. Milwaukee has held the L4 opponents that weren't Dallas to 108 or less. 10* Under Bucks/Sixers

8* Under Jazz/Heat (7:35 ET): This number isn't nearly as high as the other two matchups in this package, but I still like the Under here as Miami's recent rash of high-scoring games should come to a halt here. It's all about the opponent as Utah plays slow (17th in pace) and is also near the top of the league in fewest number of points allowed per game (106.3). Surprisingly, Miami plays at an even slower pace and they aren't far behind the Jazz in terms of PPG allowed. Let's make it 3 for 3 with Unders tonight! 

For some, the Heat have gone Over in seven straight games, though there were a couple times in that stretch where if you bet the early number, you could have cashed an Under. (I did that in their game vs. Philadelphia last Weds). Still, it's been a hot shooting stretch (pun intended!) for the Heat, culminating in them making 55.8% of their shots against the Knicks Saturday night. The Jazz will not be so generous. Their opponents are hitting just 44.2% for the year. 

Utah doesn't average a ton of points itself and their scoring average on the road is just 105.8, one of the lowest in the league. Miami is really strong defensively at home, permitting just 104.7 PPG, a big reason for their 12-1 SU record here. Utah also shot well in its last game (52.0 FG%) but that was against Charlotte in a daytime tip. The Jazz are coming off five straight games vs. sub-.500 foes, so they may not be ready for the step up in class that awaits them tonight. 8* Under Jazz/Heat 

10* Under Wizards/Knicks (7:05 ET): Wizards games - on average - remain the highest scoring in the league at a whopping 239.3 PPG. I can't remember the last time a team saw its games average that many points over the course of a full season. The Wiz currently rank 4th in the league in offensive efficiency and dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency. I think the ridiculous amount of scoring we're seeing in their games is due for a downturn as we get set to hit the New Year. Take the Under in this one. 

Tonight's opponent happens to be the lowest scoring team in the NBA, that being the Knicks, who come in averaging a scant 103.1 PPG. While they are 28th in defensive efficiency, the Knicks also rank 28th in offensive efficiency. Take away a shocking 143 point effort against the inept Hawks the last time the Knicks took the floor here at MSG and the offensive numbers get even uglier. They shot just 40.2% from the field against Milwaukee on Saturday. 

With two of the bottom three teams in defensive efficiency meeting here, you do have to recognize the potential for lots of points to be scored. But that's built into the line, which as it stands would be the highest O/U for any Knicks game this season. The Under is already 5-1 for them when the total is 220 pts or higher. Washington has not shot the ball well recently either. That gets counteracted by the fact they play at a very fast tempo, however, New York ranks just 26th in that metric. So expect this to be a "slower" than usual game for the Wiz. 10* Under Wizards/Knicks

8* Under Hawks/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): Yet another total that is too high. Now I recognize that these teams have gone Over the last six times they've met. However, we are also looking at the #26 (Cleveland) and #30 (Atlanta) teams in offensive efficiency here. Cleveland is the second lowest scoring team in the NBA at 103.9 PPG (ahead of only the Knicks), so their games don't even come close to averaging what the total is here. Atlanta games, on average, also fall short of this number. Take the Under here.

Cleveland has had three days off to savor what is just its second win streak of the year. They are coming off wins over Charlotte and Memphis, both here at home. The Charlotte game was really low scoring, a 100-98 final, even though the Cavs shot a season-high 54.1% from the field. They play at a really slow pace (25th in adj tempo) so shooting well, which they rarely do anyway, hardly matters. But the encouraging sign for the Cavs has been their improved defense as they held both the Hornets and Grizzlies to just over 40.0% from the field.

Atlanta has lost seven in a row and can be just dreadful at times defensively. They did recently allow the Knicks to score 143 points in an unforgivable performance, but don't look for history to repeat itself here. Leading scorer John Collins, his 25-game suspension served, is expected back tonight for the Hawks. But him coming in and playing well seems far-fetched. The Cavs have seen the Under hit in all four home games w/ a total of 220 or higher this year and they are 4-0 Under playing with two days rest. Atlanta shoots a league-worst 31.9% from three-point range. 8* Under Hawks/Cavaliers

10* Georgia State (7:00 ET): After an 8-0 start to the year, SMU has now lost B2B games. The most recent was a double overtime affair at Georgia. All three of the Mustangs' "true" road games have been decided by four points or less. While they do return to Dallas for this last game before X-Mas, the last time SMU played here at home, they got beat 91-74 by a Georgetown team that was on the verge of being depleted by the transfer portal. Looking at the early line movement, I think people are selling on the notion of SMU losing three straight. I remain a little more skeptical of them. 

Georgia State comes in on a seven-game win streak. They are also 8-2 ATS this season including a perfect 4-0 ATS as underdogs. The Panthers have also lost to Georgetown, but their game was closer (lost by only eight) and it was on the road. They haven't lost since falling to the Hoyas. The only other two losses were to Duke and by four at College of Charleston. An underdog that averages over 80 PPG is very attractive. The Panthers have covered all five "true" road games as well. 

In their last game, Georgia State held Texas State to 36.5% shooting, which shows they can play some defense as well. That was their second straight win to open conference play and right now they should probably be considered the favorites to win the Sun Belt. The Panthers play at a very fast pace, rank third in the country in three-point percentage (41.2), don't turn it over much and are efficient in rebounding and at the FT line. This is a very live dog against a SMU team that really hasn't beaten any opponent of real consequence. 10* Georgia State

10* Over Nuggets/Lakers (9:35 ET): This is a golden opportunity for Denver as they face the Lakers tonight and there's no LeBron James. The Lakers want you to believe that the decision not to play James tonight has nothing to do with "load management," but the reality is they have a X-Mas day game coming up against the Clippers that I'm sure has their attention. They come into this game having dropped two in a row after losing only once in their previous 18 games. They are also 0-4 ATS L4. But now they're back home for just the second time since December 1st. 

Denver has won five straight, but all of those wins were at home. This continues to be one of the best defensive teams in the league as they allow a league-low 101.7 PPG. Perhaps even more impressive is that over the last 15 games, the Nuggets have held every opponent but one to 105 points or less. The most they've allowed during the entire stretch is 108! The Nuggets are 19-8 Under in all games this season, including 11-1 when facing a team with a winning record. 

The top Under team in the league facing the LeBron-less Lakers has resulted in a very low total by modern NBA standards. Most Denver games aren't too far off from this total, but for the Lakers it's a low number. LA has gone Under three striaght games, but two of those had totals of at least 227 points. Yes, the Under hit in Denver earlier this month, 105-96 Lakers win. While James is out, Kyle Kuzma is expected to return here for the Lakers. Look for this one to sneak Over. 10* Over Nuggets/Lakers

8* Under Marshall/N Iowa (2:00 ET):  Not many teams have exceeded expectations more than Northern Iowa has as the Panthers are not only 10-1 straight up, but also 8-1 against the spread. There have been two games - against South Carolina & Colorado - where the Panthers were underdogs and they won the game outright. But UNI's pointspread prowess is not my primary concern in this one. Rather it's the streak that their opponent is on. Marshall comes in having gone Over in six straight despite playing some good defense. I look for this game to be lower scoring than anticipated. 

Marshall has won three in row, scoring 86 or more points in every game. But all three games were against "lesser competition," such as Bluefield State (non-DI), Morehead State and Eastern Kentucky. I wouldn't call the Thundering Herd a great offensive team as they actually rank outside the top 200 in offensive efficiency per KenPom. But they are playing at one of the 10 fastest tempos in the country. Still, they also are holding opponents under 40% shooting for the year. The L3 games have all been among their top four highest scoring outputs to date. I'll call for a downturn in offensive production this afternoon on the road. 

Northern Iowa has gone Over three straight times itself, but they've also been off for 10 days, which could lead to some rusty shooting at the outset here. Against some of the better teams they've played so far, the Panthers have struggled to shoot anyway. It was arguably the four weakest opponents that they racked up big offensive numbers against. But they - like Marshall - are also holding teams to a low FG% (40.2 for the year). This is the highest O/U line for any UNI game this season as well and by a pretty comfortable margin. 8* Under Marshall/N Iowa

10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): Leading scorer Devin Booker returned last night for the Suns, but it wasn't enough to turn the tide as the team lost 126-108 out in Oklahoma City. That's five losses in a row now for the Suns, who have tumbled down the standings as a result. But the numbers still suggest that this is a competitive ballclub as they're only being outscored by 0.3 PPG on the year. Tonight, they return home. While they came up short the L2 home games, those losses were by a combined three points. It's not an easy opponent coming in tonight, but I'll take the points w/ Phoenix.

The Rockets are coming off a big win out in LA as they beat the Clippers on Thursday, 122-117 as five-point dogs. But it wasn't easy. They trailed by as many as 16 in the second half and needed 40 points from Russell Westbrook in addition to 28 from James Harden. It was actually the second straight game where Houston rallied from a big deficit to win. Monday night at home vs. San Antonio, they trailed by as many as 25 before coming back to win 109-107. There's no denying the Rockets are a good team, but needing these kind of comebacks isn't a great sign. 

This is the 4th time Houston has won B2B games since Thanksgiving. They have yet to put together a three-game win streak as they are 0-3 SU/ATS off B2B wins w/ every loss coming in a game where they were favored to win by at least 7 points. With Booker, Phoenix can definitely score (116.6 PPG at home) and they are 13-4 ATS when playing with revenge. Two weeks ago, they lost by only six in Houston (were +11.5). While that was their 12th straight loss to the Rockets, the final margin being close only confirmed that the Suns are a lot better now than they've been in past years. 10* Phoenix

10* Kansas State (7:00 ET): This game takes place at a neutral setting (Kansas City, MO). Kansas State doesn't exactly come in peak form as they've dropped four of six, including a 67-61 setback at the hands of Mississippi State last weekend. That was also a neutral site game, which took place in Newark, NJ. Poor shooting was the clear culprit as the Wildcats made only 32.3% of their FG attempts, including just EIGHT two-point field goals. I expect an improvement on offense here against a St. Louis side that just let a non-DI opponent shoot better than 50%. 

St. Louis is 9-2 SU w/ their only losses coming to Seton Hall and Auburn. The Auburn loss was exactly one week ago and it was a very uninspired follow-up on Tuesday as they beat Maryville, a non-board team, 82-69. Most concerning for the Billikens is they allowed 51.9% shooting. While they were never really in danger of losing, SLU allowed Maryville to make a stunning 23 of 38 two-point field goals. That's shocking for that caliber of opponent.

Kansas State has not played since last Saturday, giving them a bit of an advantage. I realize it's been a bit of a disappointing stretch for the Wildcats, but two of St. Louis' top three scorers are dealing w/ injuries. KSU is also 5-1 SU and ATS the L6 head to head meetings. The Wildcats are still solid defensive (only 59.0 PPG allowed) and I see this as being a "breakout" game. 10* Kansas State

10* Over Furman/Mercer (7:30 ET): Furman is a team that should be taken pretty seriously in the SoCon this year as its only non-conference losses came to Alabama, USF and Auburn, all of which were "true" road games. It'll be interesting to see whether or not the Paladians can match up w/ SoCon favorite East Tenn State (who just upset LSU earlier this week). Most feel the SoCon is going to be a very competitive three-team race between those two and UNC Greensboro, all of whom are ranked inside the top 80 of my own personal power rankings. 

Furman opens conference play w/ a road game against Mercer. Mercer joined the SoCon in 2014 (formerly in the A-Sun), right after its stunning 1st round upset of Duke in the NCAA Tournament. Since then, it's been a bit of a struggle for the Bears in their new conference. Last year, they finished just 11-20 SU and were 6-12 in conference play, their worst record since joining the SoCon. They have really struggled against Furman, going 1-10 ATS including 0-5 here at home. The L3 seasons have seen them lose all five meetings to the Paladians. 

So it's no surprise that Furman comes in favored for this SoCon opener. But the total is what has my attention as Mercer has gone Under in six straight games. They've really struggled offensively in the L5, averaging just 63.4 PPG on 40.1% shooting. But only one of those five games was here at home. Furman can definitely score as is evident by the fact they are averaging nearly 80 PPG for the season. With the exception of two games, they've scored at least 70 in every game this year. With them doing much of the "heavy lifting," look for this game to go Over the total. 10* Over Furman/Mercer

8* Towson (5:00 ET): Raise your hand if you were aware that Liberty was one of the four remaining unbeatens left in College Basketball. Quite frankly, the entire quartet includes names you wouldn't expect as Liberty is one of two teams not even ranked (Duquesne is the other). Auburn and San Diego State are the other two unbeatens, but I don't think anyone is really talking about either of them (well maybe Auburn) as a potential Final Four team. 

Liberty is 12-0 SU, which is the best record in the country. But the Flames haven't exactly had to "run the gauntlet" schedule-wise. In terms of strength of schedule, KenPom says they've played among the 10 easiest in the entire country! Tip your cap to the job done so far as they have blown out a majority of their opponents. They also just went on the road and beat Vanderbilt last Saturday. That was the fifth straight lined game that they covered. But I remain very suspect of this team's success. 

I won't sell you on the notion that Towson is any kind of great team. But the Tigers should certainly be coming in motivated for this game against an undefeated foe. The game takes place in Washington D.C. as part of the "Battle for the Capital" Tournament. Towson has had nine days off since they beat UMBC 77-71 (didn't quite cover as 8.5-pt dogs). While Liberty is going to look to establish its usual methodical pace in this one, I see the underdog staying within the number as they've already taken on a number of stronger opponents like Florida and Xavier. The Tigers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in neutral court games when the total is 120 to 129.5. 8* Towson

8* CS-Bakersfield (10:00 ET): Cal State Bakersfield has had all sorts of problems covering spreads this season. They enter this game at 1-8 ATS and have also lost three in a row straight up. Two of those games, vs UC Santa Barbara and at Idaho, were close. The Roadrunners were even favorites at Idaho (-5.5) last Saturday, but eventually went down in OT by a score of 76-70. That final six-point margin was the largest lead either team enjoyed the entire game. Such are the breaks when you're a struggling team. 

But I see the Roadrunners earning a rare win tonight at the expense of Montana State, who is playing its second road game in four days. The first saw them lose by 14 at North Dakota State. Since a 4-1 start, the Bobcats have now lost three of five. They haven't dropped B2B games yet this season, but I think it speaks volumes that they come in as the underdog here. So far Montana State has been favored in only two games. That's two fewer times that Cal State Bakersfield. 

I'm counting on homecourt advantage playing a role tonight. CS-Bakersfield has averaged 81 PPG at home so far and all four wins this season have come right here. While its true three of those were against non-DI foes, they did also beat Hampton 70-57 as a seven-point favorite. Montana State, meanwhile, is averaging only 62 PPG on the road. Despite shooting just 35.1% their last game, CS-Bakersfield still managed to almost win on the road. They are "due" for a win tonight and get the job done. 8* CS-Bakersfield 

10* Cal Poly SLO (10:05 ET): Cal Poly is off a terrible loss (to Fresno State), but thankfully is catching generous number tonight at Sacramento State. Obviously, those two things are tied together. Scoring only 37 points isn't an easy thing to do, but that's what the Mustangs finished with Saturday vs. Fresno. And that was a home game. They shot a dreadful 24.5% from the field including 1 of 16 from three-point range. But, believe it or not, it was just a three-point game at halftime. 

Sacramento State is a team probably not on your radar, but they should be as they are the only perfect ATS team left in the country. Though they lost Saturday, the Hornets improved to 6-0 ATS by staying within the number at Santa Clara. The final score was 60-58. It was only the second loss of the year for Sacramento State, the other coming at Colorado. They actually led Santa Clara much of the game, but could not overcome their own poor shooting night. 

The key for tonight is that this is the most points Sacramento State has had to lay in any game so far this season. Looking at Cal Poly's resume, that should not be a surprise. But Sacramento State has been a dog in half of its lined games so far and it's a big jump to DD favorite. Cal Poly has faced better teams than Sacramento State and I'm willing to chalk Saturday up to "one of those nights." The fact that the number came down rather quickly only confirms my suspicions here. 10* Cal Poly SLO

10* Over Ark Pine Bluff/New Mexico State (9:00 ET): Arkansas Pine Bluff is the ONLY team in the country that has not had one of its games go Over the total. The Golden Lions simply aren't very good (1-9 SU record) and what is nothing short of a murderous schedule to start the season hasn't helped matters. Only one time have they played a home game and that just so happens to be their lone win, which was against a non D-I opponent (75-67), Champion Baptist. Incredibly, the Golden Lions' next six games are also on the road, including this one at New Mexico State.

New Mexico State has had its own set of issues recently, namely covering the spread as they are 2-9 ATS this season and 0-5 the last five games. Saturday saw them suffer a second loss to New Mexico, this one coming in Albuquerque by a score of 69-62. The Aggies were four-point underdogs. Earlier in the year, they'd lost to the Lobos 78-77 as four-point favorites here in Las Cruces. Tonight's game marks just the second time NMSU will be favored by more than 11.5 points this season and we're not about to lay that w/ a team struggling so mightily at the betting window.

Arkansas Pine Bluff is "unplayable" as well, so it's the total and not surprisingly I'm going to fade the early season trend and go Over. I realize Arkansas Pine Bluff is barely averaging 50 PPG, but they give up their fair share and with NMSU averaging 76.7 PPG at home, this one should easily go Over a low number. New Mexico State's scoring average has been way down recently because they haven't been at home, but this game should get them back on track offensively. It's a pretty low number for both teams based on previous O/U lines this season. 10* Over Ark Pine Bluff/New Mexico St

10* Under Heat/Sixers (7:05 ET): Both teams are in off disappointing losses. Miami, for the first time all year, fell to a sub-.500 opponent as they went down 118-111 in Memphis Monday. Philadelphia, playing without Joel Embiid, lost by 20 at Brooklyn on Sunday. As both look to bounce back Wednesday night, Philly seemingly has the edge as they are a perfect 14-0 at home so far. They are the only team that hasn't lost a home game this season. Embiid is expected back for tonight's game while Miami is still a little short-handed. But Under is going to be the call here. 

The 20-point loss to Brooklyn was the Sixers' worst of the season, at least in terms of margin of defeat. The team is only 3-3 w/o Embiid in the lineup and his replacement, Al Horford, really struggled Sunday. Horford shot just 5 of 15 overall and was 0 for 6 from three-point range. You obviously expect Philadelphia's offensive output to go up w/ Embiid back, but don't discount the defensive benefits he brings either. A big reason why the Sixers are still undefeated at home is that they only give up 98.9 PPG here at the Wells Fargo Center. That's easily the fewest number of PPG allowed by any team at home this year. Overall, the Sixers are 6th in defensive efficiency. 

Miami is also a top 10 team in defensive efficiency and they'll need to more closely resmble that ranking here as opposed to what we saw Monday. They allowed 73 pts in the first half to Memphis, which is not something you'd expect to see. The L5 Heat games have all gone Over, but I'm banking on that defensive effort improving. Also, the Heat are averaging just 107.5 PPG on the road. It was an easy Under when these teams met here back in November (Sixers won 113-86). 10* Under Heat/Sixers

10* Over Kings/Hornets (7:05 ET): This is a low total for two teams that aren't very good defensively. Granted, Sacramento did show some "defensive chops" in its 100-79 win at Golden State Sunday. But the Warriors are nothing more than a pathetic shell of their former selves at this point. In that same game, the Kings shot over 60% from the field. While it's highly unlikely they'll be able match that kind of shooting here today, that'll be offset by defensive regression. 

Charlotte has scored 85 and 83 points its last two games, yet another reason tonight's O/U is so low. The Hornets actually won one of those two games as they beat Chicago 83-73 on the road last Friday, despite it being their lowest scoring game of the year. It was also their best defensive effort as they held the Bulls to 30% shooting for the game. But that defensive effort didn't last long as the Hornets allowed 107 in a loss at Indiana on Sunday. They've allowed at least 107 in five of their last six games. 

I know both teams have been playing low scoring games of late. But this O/U still doesn't make much sense to me. When the teams met in Sacramento back on October 30th, the total was 223 and the game went Over! That was a 118-111 Hornets win as 7-point underdogs. They shot the ball well. The Kings did not. No Hornets player has scored 20 pts in the L2 games w/ the team shooting a hideous 11 of 63 from three-point range. That's got to improve moving forward. Charlotte allows 112.2 PPG at home. 10* Over Kings/Hornets

8* Over Evansville/Jacksonville St (8:30 ET): Again, I'm targeting a game where we've got one team on a pretty lengthy O/U streak and looking to buck the trend. In this case, it's Jacksonville State that has gone Under six straight times. The number isn't quite as low as I'd hoped, but it's still a lot lower than where it was when the Gamecocks faced Evansville last year. That game went way Under (final score was 55-50), but this Evansville team isn't going to have any games that low scoring this year. Take the Over. 

Evansville has five straight. Three of those wins have been by six points or less, which is why I backed off from laying points with the Purple Aces here, even though they are clearly the "bettors choice" tonight. The five-game win streak began w/ a 115-112 win over Morgan State, which went to three overtimes. While that amount of scoring certainly skews the Purple Aces' season averages, I still hang my hat on them averaging almost 80.0 PPG (79.8) while they allow 76.6. They've given up at least 71 in over half their games played while they've also scored 70 or more eight times.

Jacksonville State may be in a scoring slump, but that's because most of those games were played on the road or at neutral sites. Now their return home last week to play Troy didn't go according to plan, as they lost 60-55. But I don't see the Gamecocks shooting 34.1% at home again like they did in that game. Nor do I see Evansville shooting below 40% again like they did Saturday at WI-Green Bay. The Purple Aces were lucky that the Phoenix shot just 33.3%, the kind of percentage you rarely see from an Evansville opponent. 8* Over Evansville/Jacksonville State

10* Over Cavs/Raptors (7:35 ET): I still can't believe that Toronto's last game didn't go Over as they had 65 points by halftime and also allowed 60. Going into the 4th quarter, it was a 90-83 game, meaning 46 points was all I needed in the 4th (yes, I had the Over in case you couldn't tell where this is going!). All three previous quarters saw at least 48 total pts scored. So no problem right? Wrong. The Raptors and Nets combined for only 39 pts over the last 12 minutes. 

But in Cleveland, the Raptors have an ideal opponent to end what is now a five-game Under streak. The Cavs are second worst in the league in defensive efficiency and are giving up an average of over 120 points the last five games. They just allowed 125 against Milwaukee Saturday night, a game which predictably ended in a double digit defeat. They let the Bucks shoot 54.1% from the field. While Milwaukee is the best team in the league right now, let's not sell Toronto short either. They are averaging 115.0 PPG at home this year.

With the Raptors certainly likely to "get theirs" tonight, this one may boil down to how much scoring Cleveland does. While not a good offensive team by any means, the Cavaliers have averaged over 110 PPG their last three contests. These are the kind of games Toronto usually goes Over in as they are 7-3 Over when facing a team w/ a losing record. Last season, three of the four meetings went Over including both here in Toronto. 10* Over Cavs/Raptors

10* Over Mercer/UNC-Wilmington (7:00 ET): This is exactly the kind of O/U play that I look for in College Hoops. Mercer has gone Under in five straight games. But that's resulted in their lowest O/U of the season to date. During these last five games, they've shot a paltry 39.9% from the field. That's way down from where they are normally at, which is 43.1% for the year. Facing an opponent that can definitely score, tonight's game is going to go way Over the total.

UNC-Wilmington averages 89.7 PPG at home, so they are a more than willing "dance partner" for Mercer's Over problems. Yes, that average is inflated by the fact UNCW three times scored 100+ against non-board teams. There's quite a drop in scoring when looking at D-I opponents, including the last three games, all of which have seen the Seahawks held below 60 points. But tonight should be a breakout night as Mercer is giving up 81.3 PPG on the road this season! 

It's not just the road. Mercer is allowing 76.7 PPG overall, so they are a bad defensive team. At the same time, their own offense should get cooking here as UNC-Wilmington just let Charlotte shoot a blistering 57.4% from the field two Saturdays ago. Both teams have been off for more than week, so we're getting lots of fresh legs in this one. Look for that to lead to an "offensive-minded game." These teams met last year and the final score was 77-73 in Mercer's favor. UNC Wilmington shot only 25.9% from three-point range in that game, but is hitting over 43% at home this year. 10* Over Mercer/UNC Wilmington

10* Minnesota (6:30 ET): #3 Ohio State is set to open conference play on Sunday with a visit to Minnesota. The Big 10 is once again absolutely loaded with three teams currently in the AP Top 5 and seven in the top 25 of the KenPom ratings. Minnesota may not be one of those teams, but they still present a formidable challenge for the unbeaten Buckeyes on Sunday. We've seen unbeatens "drop like flies" over the past week, so I'm taking the points here. 

Minnesota's Big 10 opener did not go well as they were beaten by 20 at Iowa on Monday. It was the Gophers' worst loss of the season as they shot just 36.8% from the field. Looking at the game by game shooting percentages, it's easy to identify which games the Gophers have won and which they have lost. In their four wins, they are shooting better than 50%. In the five losses, they are below 38%. Three of those five losses were on the road, however. 

Ohio State has been dominant at both ends of the floor. They just scored 106 points on Penn State last Saturday, a performance that was preceded by a 74-49 beatdown of North Carolina in Chapel Hill. While a case could be made that the Buckeyes have played better than anyone in the country so far, I think this is a spot where they can slip up. They've been off for over a week and it's just their second "true" road game. The Gophers have revenge for an ugly 20-point loss in Columbus last year (I had the Buckeyes in that one), plus can OSU really cover for an eighth straight time? 10* Minnesota

10* Oklahoma City (9:05 ET): With the exodus of talent that took place in the offseason (both Russell Westbrook and Paul George leaving), most expected the Thunder's win total to take a serious nosedive in 2019-20. But they've remained competitive and actually have a positive point differential and net efficiency rating entering Saturday. Only six teams in the West have winning records right now, so the Thunder could actually end up making the playoffs if they can maintain their level of play from the first quarter of the season. I like them as an underdog tonight in Denver. 

The Nuggets won the Northwest last season w/ a 54-28 SU record. That was second best among all teams in the conference (behind only Golden State), but it came w/ a caveat, that being a 13-3 record in games decided by three points or less. So I anticipate a little regression from Denver this year. But, like the Thunder, so far they've been able to outperform expectations, largely due to giving up the fewest number of points in the league (101.6 PPG). They are 5th in the West right now, which honestly is where I expect them to finish.

Over the previous two seasons, the Thunder are 0-8 ATS vs. the Nuggets and 1-7 straight up. They've lost all four games here in Denver. But I like the number we are getting tonight. Over those last eight head to head meetings, the Nuggets have been favored just one time. OKC has covered four straight, the last three all coming on the road, and the only SU loss during that stretch was by a single point. They've held their L3 opponents all under 100 points. In what could be a low-scoring game, taking points is a premium. 10* Oklahoma City 

10* Over Nets/Raptors (7:35 ET): Despite missing Kyrie Irving, Caris LeVert and of course Kevin Durant, Brooklyn has still managed to play pretty well. Even in Wednesday's 113-108 loss to Charlotte, they led by as many as 20 points. Losing that game as a 9.5-point favorite certainly had to be disappointing, but the Nets are still 8-3 SU & ATS the L11 games heading into tonight's tilt at Toronto, a place where they have lost eight consecutive times. 

After going 8-2 without Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka, the Raptors have curiously nosedived since both returned to the lineup. They've lost four of five and failed to cover the spread in every game. The lone win was by a single point against Chicago. What really jumps out is they've failed to score 100 points in B2B games. That happening on the road is one thing, but the Clippers just held them to 92 on Wednesday. For the season, the Raptors are averaging 116.3 PPG at home.

Both of these teams have struggled when matched up with opponents that are .500 or better. Toronto is just 3-8 vs. such foes while Brooklyn is 3-6 and hasn't won one on the road. So the total is the focus for tonight and I like the Over. Nets' road games have averaged 228.3 PPG this season. As I mentioned earlier, Toronto's scoring average goes up considerably here at home. They also give up more PPG "North of the Border." The Over is 3-0 this year when Brooklyn is on exactly two days rest. 10* Over Nets/Raptors

10* Santa Clara (5:00 ET): Whenever I see Santa Clara, I think back to when I was a kid and they pulled that big 1st Round NCAA Tournament upset against Arizona. It was one of the first times a 15-seed ever won a 1st round Tournament game. Just to illustrate how long ago that was, Steve Nash was on that team! He's retired from the NBA now, I'm not a kid anymore and Santa Clara really hasn't done anything notable since. But I'm looking for them to make a "new memory" for me this afternoon as they host Sacramento State. 

Santa Clara has actually been pretty good this year. Their only two losses have been on the road, at Nevada and Stanford. At home, they are 9-0 SU and winning by an average margin of 21.1 PPG. True to form, the Broncos beat Cal by 19 here last Saturday. Every win this year has been by double digits. The Broncos are getting the job done at both ends of the floor, shooting over 50% at home while keeping their opponents down at 39.4%. 

Sacramento State's only loss this year came on the road to a ranked Colorado team. So the Hornets will be a real test for Santa Clara this afternoon. Sacramento State is one of only two teams left in the country w/o an ATS loss (5-0 ATS), the other being UTEP, who has played only three lined games. It was a close call last week on the road against CS-Fullerton as they pulled off a 62-59 win as 2-point favorites. I don't like the chances of a team that has topped 62 only once against a D-I opponent here. 10* Santa Clara

10* Over Tulsa/Arkansas (1:30 ET): Last Saturday, we played Arkansas Over the total and for the 1st time this season a Razorbacks game did go Over. Unfortunately for them, they also suffered their first loss, 86-79 at Western Kentucky (in overtime). This afternoon finds the Hogs matched up with a team sporting a similar O/U record, that being Tulsa, who is 9-1 Under on the year and has gone Under in five straight. It's a low total this afternoon, much lower than most O/U lines these teams have seeen. Take the Over. 

Coming off their first loss and a full week of rest, I expect Arkansas to come out strong on Saturday. Last week's loss to WKU was by far their worst defensive effort to date. While the number of points they allow here is likely to improve, look for that to be offset by an offensive attack that posted its third highest point total of the season last time out. Almost all Arkansas games would have gone Over this number, so we're getting some good value. 

As for Tulsa, they have not faced anyone as good as Arkansas yet, so today's game could be a bit of a "shock to the system." The Golden Hurricane have shot better than 50% as a team the L2 games, which is a good sign. Against WKU, Arkansas' lack of size was exposed, so look for Tulsa to go down low and try and do what the Hilltoppers did in the paint. There have simply been "too many Unders" between these teams so far for them NOT to go Over this low total. 10* Over Tulsa/Arkansas

10* Under Clippers/T'Wolves (9:35 ET): Most power rankings call the Clippers the third best team in the league right now, the obvious front-runners being Milwaukee and the Lakers. I'm going to disagree. Doc Rivers' team has won three straight, all on the road, and 12 of its last 14 overall. Wednesday saw them deliver a resounding 20-point win in Toronto as for the third time in the last five games they held their opponent under 100 points. I'm looking for another strong defensive effort tonight in Minnesota. 

The Timberwolves have gone Over in five consecutive games, all of them losses which have seen the opposition average a ghastly 130.8 PPG on 54% shooting. It's six-game losing streak overall and while I'm not going to make the case for that to come to an end this evening, I will call for a better defensive effort than what we've been seeing. Don't those awful defensive numbers have to start improving simply by default? Not surprisingly, the O/U line is high for tonight's game. 

Six of the last seven meetings between these teams have gone Over. But the Clippers didn't have Kawhi Leonard or Paul George for any of those. This is a better defensive team now, one that should keep Minnesota in check tonight. While they've yet to face Minnesota this season, LA is 5-0 Under against the rest of the Northwest Division. Those turning on ESPN tonight expecting lots of points will end up disappointed. 10* Under Clippers/T'Wolves

10* Indiana (7:35 ET): The Pacers just picked up a big conference win on Wednesday, beating Boston 122-117 here at home. They came from behind, overcoming a 10-point deficit and 44 points from Kemba Walker, in doing so. Now they'll be taking on a far less formidable foe in Atlanta, a team they have beaten six straight times. While the game is on the road, the spread should be a lot higher than where it opened at. The Hawks have surrendered 130+ points in three of the last four games. Lay the points. 

I faded Atlanta in its most recent game, Wednesday in Chicago, noting what a horrible spot it was for such a bad team. Just the night before, they'd blown a six-point lead in the final minute of regulation and lost to Miami in overtime. Sure enough, the Hawks came out like a defeated team on Wednesday, allowing the Bulls to shoot an insane 57.4% from the field. It was the Bulls' best game of the season, which isn't exactly a ringing endorsement of what's going on in Atlanta right now. This is a team that's won just twice in its last 15 games. 

The Hawks are very clearly one of the worst teams in the league this year. They are being outscored by 10 points every 100 possessions and are second to last (tied w/ Cleveland) in defensive efficiency. A couple weeks ago, they were able to stay within one point of the Pacers in Indiana, but that was an off-shooting night for the Pacers. Trae Young also went for a career-high 49 points. While that game may have been close, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect Indiana to win by a larger margin tonight. They just scored 122 on one of the league's better defensive teams. 10* Indiana

10* Grand Canyon (9:00 ET): Back on Sunday, Grand Canyon failed in its attempt to become the first team to knock off (still) unbeaten Liberty. They lost 70-61, but did cover for me as 9.5-point dogs. Tonight the Antelopes face another hot team, that being Northern Iowa, who just knocked off Colorado. While off to a strong 9-1 SU and 7-1 ATS start to the season, I think this is a dangerous spot for UNI to be laying points. Their last five games have either been non-lined or seen them as underdogs. 

Grand Canyon went scoreless for about 6:30 in the second half Sunday, which ended up costing them the game. Poor shooting has been a problem for Dan Majerle’s team this year, but eventually these open shots will start falling. This is a team that’s been in every game but one (at San Diego State). They are 31-8 SU L39 home games. 

Northern Iowa’s win over Colorado was their first over a ranked opponent in the last seven tries. They were red-hot from the floor, especially from three-point range where they made over 50 (14 of 26). Can’t see that kind of shooting happening again in a second straight road game. It’s also their second road game in three days, a tough spot. Four of the Panthers wins so far have been by five points or less. 10* Grand Canyon

10* Over San Diego/CS-Fullerton (10:00 ET): If only my recent focus on targeting the few remaining unbeatens left in College Basketball had been more widespread. The number of teams now left without a loss is down to five (w/ two of them being Duquesne and Liberty). That's down almost 75% from where we were at this time last week. I haven't always gone against the "right" unbeatens, but the mindset proved correct. So did targeting teams that had either perfect Over or Under records. That list is also dwindling. Tonight we'll look to go Over on a team that has the most Unders w/o an Over this season, that being Cal State Fullerton. 

Cal State Fullerton is 8-0-1 Under so far, but the last two games have both threatened to go Over. It was a push (121.0) in a 62-59 loss at Pacific last Wednesday. The Titans lost by that identical score at home to Sacramento State on Saturday, but the total was one-half point higher (121.5), meaning another Under. Tonight they welcome in San Diego, who's not exactly an offensive juggernaut, but they'd gone Over in four straight before holding Holy Cross to 51 on Saturday. 

You'll notice this O/U line is noticeably higher than the last two games for CS-Fullerton. That's because they're up against an opponent that is a far bigger threat to score. San Diego's last game had their highest total yet. That made sense as they were coming off four straight Overs. Now the number is back down. The Over is 4-1 this season for the Torerors when the O/U line is 135 pts or less. I've got to think CS-Fullerton's overall shooting is going to improve. 10* Over San Diego/CS-Fullerton

8* Over Grizzlies/Suns (9:05 ET): Memphis has increased its scoring the last two games, which it will need to continue to do tonight as they face Phoenix. Scoring 112 wasn't enough Saturday night in Utah as they gave up 126. But 110 was enough Monday when they faced Golden State. But the Suns are far more prolific offensively than the Warriors. (Words I did not plan on typing this season!) It's going to take another strong offensive effort from a team that doesn't play much defense to win this one. Take the Over.

With so many of the "usual contenders" in the Western Conference (like Golden State and San Antonio) having down years, the Suns are one of the teams trying to step up and fill that playoff void. They currently have the NBA's second longest active playoff drought, but right now are in the top eight w/ an 11-12 SU record. It's tenuous though. Phoenix remains shaky defensively as the last five games have seen them allow 49.0% shooting and 117.6 PPG.

The Suns can score though. Only four teams are averaging more points per game. They should have no problems here against a Memphis side giving up over 115 PPG. Good news for playing the Over in this one is that both teams are in the top 10 in pace of play. The Over is 10-3 in Suns' home games, including 4-1 when the number is 230 pts or higher. 8* Over Grizzlies/Suns

10* Chicago (8:05 ET): I would consider this line to be too low even if the Hawks weren't playing in the second night of a back to back. But they are and the situation really couldn't be much worse as the Hawks really let one slip away last night. They led Miami by six points in the final minute of regulation, prompting Trae Young to proclaim "It's Over!" to the Heat bench. Already carrying the burden of being the guy the franchise got when it traded the draft rights to Luka Doncic, it's going to be tough for Young to live last night down. To add injury to insult, the final score ended up being 135-121, the NBA's largest margin of victory in an overtime game in over a decade! 

So that's what Atlanta is up against here. For Chicago, this is a great chance to pick up a much needed win. The Bulls have won just twice in the past eight games, but they've generally been losing close. The last four losses have been by a total of 12 points. They've lost their last three games, but that includes a two-point loss to Golden State (blew 9-pt 4Q lead), their own OT loss to Miami (led by as many as 11 in that one) and then a one-point loss to Toronto (blew 8-pt 4Q lead).

The Hawks are one team the Bulls have actually had some success against these last few years. They are 6-2 SU and ATS the last eight head to head meetings, including a 20-pt win down in Atlanta last month. The Bulls are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS when on a three-game losing streak this season. With the Hawks just 3-10 SU and giving up 123.2 PPG on the road, the line should be several points higher for this one. 10* Chicago