8* Over Colorado/Washington State (10:00 ET): Wazzu started out the season by going Over the total in each of the first five games. Since then, the Under is 11-2 their last 13 games. They’ve gone Over in just one game during the month of January, but that was against tonight’s opponent, Colorado. That game ended up as an 83-79 final, in favor of the Buffaloes. It was the first game for CU in nearly three weeks because of COVID-19. Washington State had been off for two weeks for the same reason. 

The Cougars didn’t even have Noah Williams in that first meeting and he is the team’s second leading scorer. Shooting was not particularly outrageous from either side. So, yes, I think the teams are capable of going Over another low total on Sunday night. Eventually, Washington State’s shooting in conference play is bound to improve. They are making only 39% of their FG attempts against Pac 12 opposition, which is really bad. The shots have to start falling, sooner or later, and at least they’re at home tonight where they scored 71 points last time out (despite shooting only 36.9%) in a win over Utah.

Wazzu won that last game, rather handily, as it also held the Utes to 54 points on 39.1% shooting. Defense has not been a problem for the Cougs, but when they last faced CU, they allowed 51% shooting. Colorado shot a dreadful 34% overall in Thursday’s 60-58 loss to Washington. They were rather lucky the game ended up so close as UW was just 4 of 17 from three-point range and 8 of 17 from the free throw line. I think we’ll be getting some points tonight! 8* Over Colorado/Washington State

10* Portland (3:40 ET): I faded Chicago on Friday night and got a win from San Antonio. The Bulls now are set to face a Western Conference team with a slightly better record than the Spurs and that’s Portland, who already beat them once this season, 112-107 back in November. Despite not having top scorer Damian Lillard, the Blazers are fighting their way back up the Western Conference pecking order. They’ve won five of seven on the road and I don’t see them getting blown out here. Take the points. 

As I said in Friday’s analysis, Chicago’s point differential is only seventh best among Eastern Conference teams. So do not be surprised if they fall down a few spots in the standings. Injuries and COVID have been a factor for them this month. While the Bulls’ record at home remains solid, they have struggled defensively as they just allowed 131 points in the loss to the Spurs. Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso remain out, so they are still short-handed. The team is 0-2 SU this season after allowing 130+ pts last game.

The Blazers are getting contributions from a wide variety of players right now. Three players scored 25 or more points in Friday’s 125-110 win at Houston. It was the team’s third straight win away from home. Obviously, Houston isn’t very good, but the Blazers have also won at Boston and Toronto recently. They’ve covered the previous six trips to the Windy City and right now a case could be made that they are playing better basketball than the Bulls. Since 1/9, Portland is 7-4. Chicago is 4-8. 10* Portland

8* Washington (8:10 ET): The Wizards have had three full days to get over the meltdown against the Clippers, which saw them blow a 35-point lead and lose 116-115. It’s tough times in the Nation’s Capital right now as the Wiz have lost four in a row and are on the precipice of falling out of the top ten in the Eastern Conference. Three of those four losses have been by four points or less, two by a single point each. Now some would call that “comeuppance” after their rash of close victories to start the season.

Things are even more dire at the betting window where Washington is just 1-10 its last 11 games. However, they have gone off as the favorite in all but three of those 11 contests. Their lone cover in this stretch came as an underdog, when they beat Philadelphia 117-98. Rested, they are getting points here against a Memphis team that has been hot, but also is playing without rest. 

The Grizzlies won again last night, beating Utah 119-119. It was their second straight win after a five-game stretch where they went just 2-3 straight up. There haven’t been many losses for Memphis the last two months as they are 25-7 SU L32 games, including 11-3 SU and ATS this month. But this is a tough spot against a motivated team. Look for the visitors to at least keep within the number, or possibly take the game outright. Take the points. 8* Washington

10* Over Celtics/Pelicans (7:05 ET): Both of these teams played last night and did not shoot the ball well. So they’re also both coming off a loss. Boston went down by a score of 108-92 at the hands of Atlanta. The Celtics missed 12 of their first 13 three-point attempts in the game and finished 9 of 34 from behind the arc. They also missed 12 of their first 16 field goal attempts in the fourth quarter. New Orleans was a horrendous 5 of 34 from three-point range, and 38.9% overall, in its 116-105 home loss to Denver on Friday. 

So what I am saying, right off the bat here, is that you should anticipate BOTH teams shooting better tonight than they did on Friday. Boston had just scored 128 in its last win and that was without even shooting all that well. It’s a three-game Under run coming into tonight, but that’s also because the Celtics’ two previous opponents (before Atlanta) were just horrific shooting the ball. I don’t think they can count on holding New Orleans to 35% or less as they did to Washington and Sacramento. 

New Orleans’ last three games have all gone Over with them allowing 113, 117 and 116 points. For the year, they are giving up 110 PPG. So there’s more reason to expect Boston is going to have a bounce back game offensively. As for the Pelicans, they could be getting at least one of their top two scorers back. Regardless, these teams will combine to shoot MUCH better than 31% from three-point range, which was the number they were at when they met in Boston earlier this month. 10* Over Celtics/Pelicans

10* Illinois (4:30 ET): The Fighting Illini survived a scare on Tuesday, holding off #10 Michigan State for a 56-55 win. It was a game they led by double digits at the half, despite being without two of their top players. Kofi Cockburn could be back today while Andre Curbelo (COVID) is less likely to return. Both players are officially listed as questionable as of this writing. What I do know is that the Illini, in order to preserve their Top 25 ranking, can not afford a slip up here against Northwestern. 

I’ve got Illinois rated as the second best team in the Big 10 this year, only behind Purdue. The Illini are currently tied with Wisconsin for first place with a 7-2 SU conference record. They haven’t covered any of the last three games, but one of those was an OT loss to Purdue. This is a short number we’re dealing with here, and while I usually stay away from road favorites, the fact is Northwestern (Illinois’ opponent) is coming off a slew of disappointing setback and may have little left “in the tank” on Saturday. 

Six of N’western’s seven Big 10 losses have come by eight points or fewer, including 72-70 at Michigan on Wednesday. That was a game that saw the Wildcats only lead briefly after a late run in the second half. As many close calls as they’ve had, N’western is just 2-6 ATS vs. Big 10 teams thus far. They have struggled defensively, giving up an average of 78.0 points the L5 games. Even a possibly undermanned Illinois team can come into Evanston and win. They are 17-5 ATS L22 trips here. 10* Illinois

8* Alabama (4:00 ET): This is a spot I couldn’t wait to jump on. Most will see Baylor, the defending National Champion, laying a short number on the road and want to lay the points. But give me Alabama, an underrated team that’s off a bad loss. The Crimson Tide still rank in the Top 20 of my power ratings, even after losing to Georgia (as a 15.5-point favorite) on Tuesday. They’ve beaten both Houston and Gonzaga this year and only lost by four to Auburn. I love the Tide getting points in Tuscaloosa. 

Bama is on a six-game ATS losing streak coming into this game, after the bad loss to UGA earlier this week. That’s not the first time a loss to the Bulldogs has angered the Alabama fan base this month. But this was the basketball team’s worst defeat of the season. It came about as a result of going just 9 of 34 from three-point range and a big disparity at the free throw line (-11 in makes). But now the Tide is back home, where they are 9-1 SU this year, the only loss coming against #1 Auburn.

The same night ‘Bama got upset, Baylor dominated Kansas State for a 74-49 home win. But now they step into unfamiliar territory as this is part of the Big 12 vs. SEC Challenge and the Bears should expect a hostile environment. The Bears are certainly capable of winning on the road (they are 8-0 SU outside of Waco this season), but remember they did lose at home to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. I think Alabama is pretty comparable to Texas Tech. The respect shown here to the home team is not a surprise. They were favorites at home vs. Auburn! 8* Alabama

8* Winthrop (3:00 ET): The number of teams with an unbeaten conference record is rapidly dwindling across College Basketball. But we’ve got one of the few remaining here with Longwood out of the Big South. The Lancers have won all six league games so far. But other than a 73-49 thrashing of last place Hampton earlier this week, all of the wins have come by single digits. This afternoon, Longwood gets its stiffest Big South test to date with a visit from the other division leader, Winthrop. 

Now Winthrop has been a disaster for bettors so far this season. The Eagles are 3-13 ATS overall and haven’t covered a spread since December 7th! But they have also been favored in almost every game during this ATS slide. The lone exception was a blowout loss at Mississippi State. In fact, the last time Winthrop covered a game, came as a home underdog to Furman (they won that game outright). It is rather incredible to see a team with an 0-11-1 ATS record as favorites, but we don’t need to worry about laying points here. 

This is the third game in six days for both teams. Winthrop lost at High Point on Monday, but then bounced back with a four-point win at USC Upstate in overtime. Longwood had the win at Hampton on Monday, then beat North Carolina A&T by eight on Wednesday, at home. Winthrop has certainly had Longwood’s number the last couple years, winning all five meetings, four of those by double digits. Longwood trailed at the half on Wednesday. Take the points here. 8* Winthrop

10* Over Knicks/Bucks (10:10 ET): Milwaukee had a three-game win streak halted two nights ago in Cleveland. They lost 115-99 while shooting just 28% from three-point range (9 of 32). Part of the reason for that poor shooting was because the Bucks were without two of their top shooters, Grayson Allen and Wesley Matthews. Both could be back in the lineup Friday (Allen definitely will) when the team returns home to face the Knicks. The Bucks have won three straight at home and two of the wins saw them score 126 and 133 points. They are averaging 112.4 PPG at home for the season. 

So expect a return to form, at least on offense, for Milwaukee here tonight. As for the Knicks, they’ve struggled with their shooting recently, failing to make more than 43% from the field in any of the last four games. Offense has been a struggle all season for New York, but I expect this game will go a little better than most of the recent ones, and that’s because Milwaukee has allowed 114+ points in four of its last five games. 

This is the fourth head to head meeting between these two teams this season. The first three all stayed Under, but were very close to the number as the games finished with 211, 212 and 209 total points. We haven’t seen good shooting from either side in any of the prior meetings, which is odd. Looking at this number, all we basically need is the Bucks (111.8 PPG) and Knicks (103.8) to hit their season averages. I don’t think that’s asking for too much? The Over is 9-3 L12 times the Bucks have been home favorites. 10* Over Knicks/Bucks

8* San Antonio (8:40 ET): The Spurs remain one of the more “curious cases” in the league as they have the point differential of a team you’d expect to be right around .500, but instead they are 13 games below. At home, they’ve actually outscored their opponents this season, but somehow have a 9-16 SU record here. Coming off another tough home loss, 118-110 to red-hot Memphis, I’m banking on a strong effort from San Antonio and a much “overdue” win. 

Comparing the Spurs and Bulls, in certain metrics, is certainly interesting. The Spurs have the eighth best point differential in the Western Conference, despite their .367 win percentage. They should be, at least, in position for one of the play-in spots. As for the Bulls, they’ve spent time atop the Eastern Conference standings and currently sit second with a 30-17 SU record. But they only have the seventh best point differential in the East. It’s been a great start to the season in the Windy City, but I do see them as likely to drop down a few spots. 

Beating Oklahoma City and Toronto earlier in the week marked the first time that Chicago has won B2B games since January 7th. Injuries and COVID-19 have certainly been a factor with this team, but let’s also note that their two road wins this month both came by a single point. Going back to the start of December, the Bulls have just one road win by more than four points. San Antonio is getting great production of late from PG Murray, who already has 10 triple-doubles this season. Chicago will NOT shoot 39 of 58 again, from two-point range, like they did vs. Toronto. 8* San Antonio

10* Akron (7:00 ET): Toledo is on quite the run currently. They’ve won and covered seven straight, putting them squarely in first place in the MAC. The Rockets’ lone conference defeat this year came by just three points at Kent State back on New Year’s Day. This run hasn’t seen too many close calls, although there have been a couple upsets, like winning at Ohio last Friday. On Tuesday, they won here at home over Buffalo, 86-75. Note, however, that was a close game until the stretch run. I think now is the right time to take the points against Toledo as they are facing a pretty strong Akron team. 

Akron is 6-2 SU in MAC games as they too lost in Kent, but were also beaten at home by Ohio. The Zips have won four in a row coming into tonight, three of those by four points or less. So it’s not been as dominant of a win streak as Toledo’s, but the Zips have allowed an average of just 55.3 points the last three games. Strong defensive numbers are a big reason why this team is 5-1 ATS as an underdog this year. They are 13-5 ATS L18 times getting points.

Toledo is the better offensive team here, but look for them to get stymied by Akron’s slow pace of play. The Zips play at the 15th slowest pace in the country, so by limiting possessions, they can limit the potential damage Toledo can do at the offensive end. It boils down to the visitors making shots and I think they can. Three times in conference play, Akron has scored at least 84 points. Toledo is allowing 72.8 points over its L5 games. 10* Akron

8* Northeastern (7:00 ET): These teams just met on Monday. UNC Wilmington won 74-68 as a 2.5-point underdog. What’s remarkable about that spread is UNC Wilmington entered the game with a perfect conference record. Northeastern is still winless in the CAA this season! It was also UNC Wilmington’s eighth consecutive victory against the spread and ninth win in a row overall (straight up). But all but ONE of those lined victories came as an underdog. Tonight the Seahawks are favored for just the second time since December 1st!

Pulling off four consecutive upsets, not to mention seven in your last eight games, is a remarkable achievement and that is what UNC Wilmington has done. Clearly, they have made the oddsmakers look a little foolish. But all good things must end, and now as a favorite, they are ready to be faded. Northeastern actually shot much better in the game Monday night (46.3% to 40.0%). The key was that UNCW made eight threes to N’eastern’s four and they were also +8 in FT makes. 

N’eastern actually led at the break Monday. It is telling that despite being 0-8 SU in conference play that the Huskies are only a slight dog to the first place team, on the road. UNC Wilmington’s average margin of victory in conference play is less than five points per game. They’ve yet to win by double digits and three of the wins have come by four points or less. Four of Northeastern’s conference losses have been by six points or less. This is simply a case of regression/progression to the mean. 8* Northeastern

10* James Madison (7:00 ET): JMU is off one of the worst “beats” in recent memory as they, as a three-point favorite, fell “victim” to a last second three. The Dukes still won the game 95-94, but if you bet them (like I did), that was some “tough luck.” 

That one-point win (over College of Charleston) took place Saturday night. It was the fourth straight ATS loss for JMU, although they have won two of the games straight up. Three have been decided by four points or less. The oddsmakers are expecting another close tonight vs. Drexel, but I do think the Dukes break through and cover the spread in this one. They have been a strong home team all year, winning 8 of 10 games here and averaging 82.1 PPG. Each of the last two games have seen a three-pointer hit at the buzzer. The last one, as I already mentioned, cost them a cover. The previous one was even more heartbreaking as they lost 71-70 to UNC Wilmington. 

While it is a little concerning how JMU has given up 90+ points in three of its last four games, don’t look for Drexel to do anywhere close to that kind of damage at the offensive end tonight. The Dragons are off a horrible loss, as 15-point favorites, to the worst team in the league (that being William & Mary). That came at home. JMU, while shooting over 50% themselves at home this season, is limiting the opposition to 40.3% here. This is the Dukes’ fourth straight game at home and they’ve only been an underdog one time since conference play began. Drexel has only been favored once. So I see the home side covering the short number, this time. 10* James Madison

8* Under Wisconsin/Nebraska (5:00 ET): Well, taking the Under the last time Wisconsin took the floor turned out to be the incorrect play. But, if at first you don’t succeed, then try again. Tonight’s matchup seems far more conducive to an Under, even though the opponent (Nebraska) is not so hot defensively. I think the big key is that Nebraska - unlike Michigan State - is simply incapable of scoring 86 points. That’s how many Michigan State put up on the Badgers last Friday. 

This will be Nebraska’s first game in 10 days due to COVID. This matchup was originally set to take place on Tuesday, but the Cornhuskers were dealing with health and safety protocol. Last Saturday’s game vs. Ohio State also had to be postponed. So I would not be surprised if it’s a “sluggish” start from the home team in this one. It’s also unlikely that the Cornhuskers will EVER get hot from three-point range tonight; they are sinking only 29.8% of their 3PA for the season! It’s been a tough season in Lincoln. 

The key here is Nebraska keeping Wisconsin’s offense in check. Fortunately, the Badgers are second in the country at turning the ball over. I don’t think that’s going to lead to an abundance of points for Nebraska, but it will lead to plenty of empty possessions by the road team. The Cornhuskers are second in the Big 10 at forcing turnovers. Wisconsin played without its third leading scorer in the last game and got just seven bench points. Their Over streak, now at eight games, is due to end. 8* Under Wisconsin/Nebraska

8* Utah (10:10 ET): I understand who the hotter team is here. Phoenix, who leads the NBA with a 37-9 SU record, has won its last seven games and 10 of the last 11. Meanwhile, Utah has been slumping over its last 10 games, going just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS. But the fact the Jazz, severely short-handed, were able to “keep up” with the Suns two nights ago on the road was an encouraging sign. Six of their nine top scorers did not play in the game Monday, including Mitchell, Gobert, Bogdanovic and Conley. Most of them are set to return tonight, so I’m taking the points as this is the 1st time all season the Jazz have been underdogs at home. 

Despite the recent slide, I’ve still got the Jazz rated #3 in my own power ratings. The last two games have seen them lose close decisions to the top two teams, Golden State and Phoenix, both on the road. Utah covered the spread in both games, much needed relief for their backers after going 4-14 ATS the previous 18 games. Even without most of their best players, the Jazz were up in the fourth quarter Monday in Phoenix, which is pretty remarkable when you think about it. Seven players actually finished in double figures.

The Suns are also playing without some key pieces, namely Payne, Ayton and Crowder. So they aren’t at full strength either here. As I said earlier, this will be the first time this season that Utah is getting points at home. It does appear as if Gobert and Mitchell will again be out, but the other players should be back and if a skeleton crew could stick with the Suns on the road, then it stands to reason a more “complete” roster can also cover the number at home. The Jazz will badly want this win, knowing the game is on national television. 8* Utah

10* Seattle U (10:00 ET): The current leaders in the WAC have won seven in a row and now stand at 15-4 SU on the year. They’ve yet to drop a conference game and have covered the spread against five of their six WAC opponents thus far. I’ll look for the trend to continue tonight when Seattle hosts Stephen F Austin. The Lumberjacks, in their maiden season in the conference, currently stand at only 12-7 SU after suffering a 14-point loss at home to New Mexico State on Saturday. They are now just 1-5 ATS in their L6 games. 

Seattle is coming off a 76-68 win at Tarleton State where they were actually 1.5-point underdogs. It was the second straight outright win as a dog for the Redhawks, who also beat Abilene Christian 72-62 on the road two days earlier, as a six-point dog. As to why the team is performing so well of late, you can probably credit the defense, which is holding the opposition to below 40% shooting in conference play. That’s a problem for SF Austin St, which has been below 40% in three of its last four games. 

The Redhawks are the better team here and with the home court advantage, they should clearly be bigger favorites. They’ve gone 11-1 SU at home and averaged 80.7 PPG. So it’s not just the defense. Last time SF Austin St ventured on the road, they shot a hideous 26.2% from the floor in a 49-41 loss to Sam Houston State. This isn’t the Southland anymore and these road trips are about to get more daunting for the Lumberjacks, who are set to hit the West Coast for the first time as a WAC member. This number is way too short. 10* Seattle U

8* Seton Hall (8:30 ET): Taking a flier on Seton Hall here as they have revenge and are off their worst loss of the season. The revenge angle stems from a controversial 73-72 loss to Marquette 11 days ago, a game that was decided on a late foul (which really could have gone either way). The bad loss came Saturday, 84-63 to St. John’s, a team the Pirates had just beaten at MSG two days prior. The loss occurred in historic Walsh Gymnasium and saw SH play without Bryce Aiken, who has been in concussion protocol ever since the loss to Marquette. Even if Aiken does not return here, I still believe in the Pirates and think this is an opportune time to “sell high” on Marquette. 

It was back on Jan 4 that I took Marquette in what ended up being an 88-56 romp over Providence. I took them again in their next game and they crushed Georgetown 92-64. A third straight double digit win (87-76 over DePaul) followed. Since then, the Golden Eagles have rattled off three consecutive upsets, all over ranked teams, to make it a six-game win streak. Now they come in ranked (#22) and are seemingly one of the hottest teams in the country. But two of those wins, the one over Seton Hall and then later a three-point win at Villanova, easily could have gone the other way. 

Seton Hall had a huge rebounding edge (47-26) in the first meeting, but could not overcome 20 turnovers. The other thing that hurt them was Marquette shooting much better from three-point range. With the rematch set to take place at home, the Pirates should take better care of the basketball and shoot better from behind the arc. Leading scorer Jared Rhoden, who was 6 of 28 on FG attempts in the L2 games, should be far more efficient and PG Richmond is a lock to improve after his disastrous showing Saturday (0 for 8 from the field). Aiken returning would be the “cherry on top,” but not necessary for SH to pull off a much-needed win. 8* Seton Hall

10* Over Mavericks/Warriors (10:05 ET): While both of these teams have been very stout defensively, and the Warriors have really been that way all season, I’ve got to think tonight’s game on ESPN goes Over the oddsmakers’ total. For one, Dallas is on a preposterous run of Unders (eight straight, 13 of last 14 games) right now. Also, I think that Golden State, Steph Curry specifically, is due to break out of a shooting slump. This could end up as the lowest O/U line for any GSW game since 12/18, which went Over. 

Now there is no denying how good Dallas has been defensively during this 13-1 Under stretch. The most points they’ve given up in any of those games is 109 and only three teams have been able to top 100. In today’s NBA, that’s quite shocking. But eventually, you’re going to have a bad game defensively. The fact the Warriors have been struggling to make shots over the same stretch the Mavs have turned it on defensively tells me a “perfect storm” may be in order for tonight’s game. 

Even if both Klay Thompson and Draymond Green both sit out, the Warriors will top the 94 points they scored in the win over the Jazz Sunday. Steph Curry has been in a mini-slump, including 13 points on 5 of 20 shooting last game. He can still go off any night though. The Warriors scored just 11 points in the 4Q Sunday. They were on track for well over 100 before that. Holding the Jazz to 38% shooting was what allowed them to hold on for the two-point win. Dallas will shoot better than recent Warriors’ opponents have. 10* Over Mavericks/Warriors

8* Missouri (8:30 ET): Auburn is now ranked #1 for the first time in program history. This puts a big target on their back every game. I know that it’s been a great run of form for Bruce Pearl’s team as they have covered the spread in each of their last eight games. But Tuesday is a total letdown spot as the Tigers are coming off a home win against Kentucky and have Oklahoma (SEC/Big 12 Challenge) and rival Alabama on deck. Laying double digits on the road, they are ready to be faded here. 

Missouri has been a bit schizophrenic of late. But they have covered the number in each of the last three games. They’ve not been favored in a single SEC game so far. So the fact they are 2-4 SU in conference play isn’t that bad. They beat Alabama, as a 14-point underdog, here in Columbia. They also won by 25 at Ole Miss last week, a game where the Tigers were +7.5. Over the weekend, they fell in a rematch with Alabama, but easily covered the 18-point spread. They actually led by as many as 14 in that game. 

Three-point shooting has been pretty lousy for Mizzou all year. But there were signs of a turnaround in their last game, as they made 11 of 24 from behind the arc against Bama. Auburn will not shoot 56.8% again like they did vs. UK on Saturday. They trailed at halftime in that game, but scored 51 points over the final 20 minutes. Auburn’s last four road games have brought three single digit wins. We don’t even need that tonight. Look for the home dog to stay within the number here. Take the points. 8* Missouri

8* Washington (7:10 ET): The Wizards got off to a pretty nice start to the season, winning 10 of their first 13 games. But I saw some “holes” in their resume and there were some clear signs that regression would eventually take place. This is a team with a league-high eight wins by three points or less. Only the Magic and Pistons, the two obvious worst teams, have a worse point differential in the East. Sure enough, the Wiz are now reeling as they’ve lost four of five, all at home. They are 1-9 ATS in the L10 games. 

But, tonight is a situation I expect them to take advantage of. With road games at Memphis, Milwaukee and Philadelphia looming on the schedule, this game vs. the Clippers is a virtual “must-win.” After Sunday’s embarrassing loss to Boston, you’ve got to expect Washington will come out fired up at home. They can’t possibly shoot any worse than they did against the Celtics. They were just 35.5% overall and 23.5% from behind the arc. The good news is that they usually bounce back from games like that. They are 8-2 ATS this season and 21-8 ATS L3 seasons after a game scoring 100 points or less. 

The Clippers are still without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Don’t look for them to make a move into the top six out West. Had LA not made a stunning comeback against Philadelphia on Friday, they’d be coming into tonight as losers of five of their last six. The situation clearly favors the Wizards, who are playing their eighth straight home game while the Clippers are playing their fourth road game in seven nights, and the front end of a back to back. 8* Washington

8* Under Nuggets/Pistons (7:10 ET): These teams just met Sunday with Denver winning 117-111. It came down to the final minute, which had to be less than thrilling if you’re a Nuggets’ fan as they led by as many as 16 in the fourth quarter. What should have Denver “breathing easier” for tonight’s rematch is that it is HIGHLY unlikely the Pistons will shoot 56% again from the floor. The Pistons are last in the East in scoring (102.0 PPG) and shoot just 42.1% for the year. Only OKC is worse offensively. 

Though they were able to rally and tie the game up in the final minute, what killed the Pistons on Sunday were 22 turnovers, which were converted into 28 points by the Nuggets. They may not shoot as well tonight, but the home team should play a “cleaner” game. Defensively, they should be much better as well. While Detroit is allowing 115.1 PPG on the road, it’s a much more reasonable number (107.5) at home. The Under has also hit in the team’s last eight Tuesday games. 

Denver is on a six-game Over run, where scoring has been way up from normal. They’ve allowed four straight opponents to shoot better than 52% from the floor. That can’t keep happening. As detailed above, this is an ideal opponent for the defensive woes to cease. I will not be the least bit surprised if the Nuggets win a close, low-scoring game here. 8* Under Nuggets/Pistons

8* Over Hornets/Raptors (7:10 ET): Both teams lost on Sunday, due in no small part to bad shooting. Charlotte, playing without Gordon Hayward, fell 113-91 at home to Atlanta. That was only the second loss in the last nine games for the Hornets though. I expect them to bounce back offensively in this one, especially after going a dreadful 4 of 36 from three-point range vs. the Hawks. They missed 18 straight attempts from behind the arc and finished the game at just 39.1% overall from the field. 

Toronto played a horrible game against Portland, falling behind by 34 in the first half. This was at home! While I am predicting Charlotte to bounce back offensively in this one, the same can be said for the Raptors. They were held under 40% shooting by the Blazers. Key to their projected improvement here is the fact Charlotte is dead last in the Eastern Conference in scoring defense, giving up 114.2 points per game. The Hornets’ defense has improved some over the last month, but the YTD numbers speak for themselves. 

The total was very high (233.5) for the Charlotte-Atlanta game Sunday. So it looks like we’re getting some solid value with this number. The Under is 7-1 in Charlotte’s last eight games and 12-3 L15 (4-0 L4). To me, that says things are “due” to go the “other way.” Same for Toronto, who had gone Under in seven straight before Sunday’s Over vs. Portland. Prior to the seven-game Under run, the Raptors had gone Over in 10 straight games. They are streaky when it comes to totals! 8* Over Hornets/Raptor

9* TX Southern (8:30 ET): The last time I took Texas Southern, things went VERY well as the Tigers annihilated Mississippi Valley State 95-58. What followed (for them) were two close, painful losses - by one at Alcorn State and by three at Jackson State. But home court appears to be a “panacea” as they returned to Houston on Saturday and crushed Alabama A&M. The Tigers have only played three home games this season. But they are 3-0 and have won by 19, 37 and 34 points! 

So I’ll lay the number here. Can’t guarantee it will get as ugly as the last time I took them, or even Saturday. But Texas Southern is clearly a “different team” at home and shouldn’t have much difficulty thrashing Alabama State, who is 1-11 SU on the road so far. The Hornets just lost at Prairie View A&M, who is very bad, 70-67 on Saturday. They covered, but the fact they were underdogs speaks volumes. This is a bad basketball team. 

Consider that when Alabama State hosted Alabama A&M, they won by just four points. That’s the same opponent that TX Southern just beat by 34. For each of the last three games, Alabama State has been below 38 percent shooting. This is a team that’s been beaten by double digits on nine separate occasions this year. 9* TX Southern

8* Binghamton (7:30 ET): Both of these teams come into Monday riding three-game ATS win streaks. But I’m not sure a 3-11 Hartford team deserves to be favored on the road, against anyone. The Hawks had nearly a month off (due to cancellations/postponements) when they beat New Hampshire 69-57 last week. They returned to their “losing ways” over the weekend, falling at Vermont 82-72. There’s really no shame in that loss (Hartford was +15.5), but again … a road favorite? 

Binghamton is 4-2 in conference play, so they’ve gotten in a lot more games than Hartford. Playing regularly keeps you in rhythm and thus I expect the Bearcats to be in better form this evening. They are off a 68-57 win over New Jersey Tech on Saturday, which was a revenge spot. With the next two games both coming against Hartford, there’s a real shot for Binghamton to put some distance between themselves and the middle of the pack in the America East. The only two teams ahead of them right now are Vermont and Stony Brook. 

Last time at home, Binghamton lost by three to Stony Brook in a game that could have gone either way. It was their second straight home loss, so motivation should be high coming into tonight. After not playing a single game for nearly a month, Hartford is now playing for a third time in less than a week. The Hawks are just 2-7 in “true” road games this year and after shooting 50%+ in the last two games, I see a downturn tonight. Take the points. 8* Binghamton

10* Under Towson/Delaware (7:00 ET): Delaware finds itself on a five-game Over streak. They’ve shot 50% or better and scored 80+ points in four of the games. But they probably can’t keep that up. Those numbers aren’t demonstrably higher than what the Blue Hens are doing at the offensive end for the balance of the year. But it’s really hard to keep up an offensive stretch like that for a long period of time. Plus, Delaware surprisingly shoots WORSE at home (where they are tonight), making only 44.9% of their total FG attempts. 

Tonight, the Blue Hens run into a Towson team that can play some defense. The visiting Tigers are holding the opposition to 40.4% shooting for the year and 65.4 PPG. They did just give up 81 in a loss to UNC Wilmington over the weekend, but that game went to overtime and was tied 65-65 at the end of regulation. In their previous game, Towson had held Charleston to just 32.9% shooting. None of the Tigers’ previous nine opponents have scored 70 in regulation. 

Delaware can play some defense too; they are allowing just 40.3% shooting at home this year. Neither of these two teams play incredibly fast. Both are outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo. Towson is actually 320th in adjusted tempo, which means their preferred pace is VERY slow. With both teams playing their second game in three days, I look for the Under to cash in this Monday CAA matchup. This is a high O/U line for Towson, who is 6-2 Under when the total is 140 to 149.5. 10* Under Towson/Delaware

10* Over Grizzlies/Mavericks (7:35 ET): While the trends are firmly on the side of the Under here, I’m looking to “buck” convention as two of the hottest teams in the league should find a way to go Over here. Yes, Dallas has gone Under in seven straight games, the last five of which have been here at home. That brings the O/U record for the year to 17-5 Under at home, which is pretty crazy. All three previous Grizzlies-Mavs meetings this year have gone Under. But expect this one to go differently. 

The last time these teams met was earlier this month and the Mavs surprisingly ran away with a 112-85 road win. That’s just one of two games that Memphis has lost since Christmas. Part of the reason the Grizzlies lost is because they shot just 38.2% from the floor, including 22% from behind the arc. They actually led 55-50 at the half but were held to only 30 points over the final two quarters! Even though it ended up being a blowout victory, even Dallas didn’t shoot well from three in that game. The two teams combined to go 15 of 63 from behind the arc!

Expect much more precise three-point shooting in this one. Memphis is a team that averages 112.1 PPG and they just scored 122 in their last game, despite being without their second and third leading scorers. Ja Morant went for 38. Dallas is off a disappointing 109-101 loss to Phoenix where they scored only 19 points in the 4Q. Luka Doncic expects to play Sunday after leaving the last game with a neck injury. That’s key. 10* Over Grizzlies/Mavericks

8* St. Louis (2:00 ET): This is an immediate rematch from a game played on Thursday, which UMass (surprisingly) won 91-88. The Minutemen were three-point underdogs for that one, at home, but now must head to St. Louis where they’ve won just once in their last 10 tries. The Minutemen are also 1-7 SU away from home this season, including 0-4 in “true” road games. The likelihood of them matching their shooting from Thursday’s game is not likely here. St. Louis is holding visiting teams to 38.2% shooting this year. 

From the Billikens’ perspective, what made Thursday’s loss so disappointing is that they got a season-high 23 points from Gibson Jimerson as well as a career-best 20 points from Fred Thatch Jr. Of the two teams, St. Louis is far more likely to match Thursday’s offensive effort. I say that because UMass has been just dreadful at the defensive end all season. The Minutemen are allowing over 80 PPG on 50.2% shooting in conference play. All five A-10 opponents have scored at least 77 against them. 

My power ratings suggest a double digit spread here, so there’s value on the home team. UMass had lost six of seven, including all four conference games, prior to the upset on Thursday. St. Louis has covered the spread off each of its last three losses, all those games coming at home. While just 11-6 SU on the year, the Billikens could have a much better record. Five of their six losses have been by six points or less. Look for them to get their revenge with an emphatic win on Sunday. Lay the points. 8* St. Louis

8* UMKC (8:00 ET): The Roos proved to be a “bad take” the last time I had them (Monday vs. Denver) vs. they quickly bounced back with an 80-77 win over North Dakota State on Thursday. That win came as a two-point home underdog as they put together an excellent second half, rallying from a seven-point deficit at the break. I don’t know what happened on Monday when they lost outright to Denver, a team that had lost 10 in a row on the road, 63-55 as an 8.5-point favorite. This should be UMKC’s best performance in awhile. 

They host North Dakota, a team that also surprised me this week when it hung with Summit League power Oral Roberts. The line was +20.5 for the Fighting Hawks and they easily covered, only losing the game by a four-point margin. But it was still their seventh loss in a row and 10th in the last 11 games. North Dakota’s only win since November came against a non-board team. They are 4-15 SU overall and two of those wins came in the first three games of the season. 

The Fighting Hawks are 0-9 SU in “true” road games, losing by an average of 18.4 PPG. Going back further, they are 10-29 ATS L39 road games. As an underdog, they are 5-11 ATS and losing by an average of 13.1 PPG. I really see them struggling to keep up with Kansas City here, especially with them allowing 50% shooting in conference play. UMKC is holding teams to 38.1% shooting here at home. My power rankings say this line should be much higher and I won’t disagree! 8* UMKC

9* North Alabama (4:30 ET): I love dabbling in these smaller conferences as that’s often where the most value is. Such is the case today in the Atlantic Sun where North Alabama hosts Stetson. Now both of these teams have been struggling in 2022. North Alabama has dropped six of seven with the one win coming by a single point. Stetson has dropped three in a row and four of its last five. But the key is home court advantage. Having it, North Alabama should be a much bigger favorite in this spot. 

The Lions have won six of seven at home this season, outscoring their opponents by 28.6 PPG! Now that’s a little skewed by them posting three blowout wins over non-DI teams. However, their last win came here in Florence as they upended Eastern Kentucky as 5.5-point underdogs. That’s an EKU team I just won with earlier this week. Since that win, the Lions have dropped two straight on the road, but one of them was in overtime. North Alabama has the distinction of having faced Gonzaga & Auburn this year (#1 and #2), so they won’t be intimidated by anyone from the A-Sun. 

Stetson is a team that’s only been favored in two games all year. Both times they were favored by two points or less. The Hatters are underdogs here, but it’s a short number. My point is this is typically not a team that the oddsmakers expect to win. They are 2-6 SU on the road. Earlier in the week, Stetson lost in OT to Florida Gulf Coast, which was extra painful as they battled back from a 15-point halftime deficit at home. The two games prior saw them average just 49.5 points. 9* North Alabama

10* James Madison (4:00 ET): Both of these Colonial teams got off to respectable starts to the season, but after dealing with multiple cancellations because of COVID-19, conference play has been a surprising struggle. James Madison is a team I’ve won with before; I took them as a slight favorite when they crushed Northeastern 89-66 earlier this month. But since that win, the Dukes are 0-3 ATS including an ugly loss on the road to Elon and a loss at the buzzer to UNC Wilmington on Thursday. Between them and Charleston, I think JMU is the more likely team to bounce back on Saturday. 

Charleston is 0-4 ATS in CAA play, winning only one game straight up. That win was over the Elon team that blew JMU out. But the difference is Charleston got Elon at home. On Thursday, Charleston lost 74-67 to Towson as they could only score 24 points in the first half, a season-low for the team. Now 1-6 ATS in the L7 games overall, the Cougars are playing their second road game in three days, a scenario they’ve yet to face this season. On the road, this team is shooting just 40.4%.

The loss suffered by James Madison on Thursday was just their second at home all season. This is a team my power ratings have felt has been underrated for awhile; they beat Virginia here at home! For the year, JMU is averaging 80.7 PPG at home while giving up only 61.6. They are shooting 50.5% from the field here (38.5% from three) while allowing just 39.3% overall shooting (27.9% from three). At the end of the day, I just can’t see the Dukes dropping a three straight game as chalk. 10* James Madison

8* Nevada (11:00 ET): It’s been a tough run for the Wolf Pack as of late, particularly at the betting window. This team hasn’t covered a spread since November, although that’s a little misleading as they only played three games in December. One of those was not lined (against MN-Duluth), but it’s still an 0-6 ATS run heading into Friday. Nevada is 3-3 straight up in those six games, alternating wins and losses along the way. They are off a loss here, 77-67 to Wyoming, so if the pattern holds that means they are set to get back in the win column. A win would almost certainly mean a cover. That’s what I’m banking on here. 

Now Fresno State comes into Reno on a bit of a run. The Bulldogs have won and covered three straight, beating San Jose State, UNLV and Utah State, all as a favorite. FSU is 12-4 ATS on the year, which is one of the best cover rates in the country, but Nevada is an opponent that has given them all sorts of trouble through the years. The last eight head to head meetings have all been won by the Wolf Pack, including two double digit decisions here in Reno last season. 

Now it was a home loss for Nevada last time out. It was close most of the way vs. Wyoming, but things got away from the Wolf Pack down the stretch. The final margin was the most they trailed by the entire game. I see this team being eager to not lose two in a row at home. They’ve got the oddsmakers’ respect being favored against Wyoming and Fresno State, two of the four Mountain West teams that are 13-4 SU or better. That’s probably because all four of FSU’s losses this season have come on the road where they are averaging only 62.9 PPG. 8* Nevada

10* Denver (9:05 ET): Memphis hasn’t lost B2B games since a three-game losing streak right before X-Mas. Since that three-game slide, they’ve won 12 of their last 14 games and now have a rather ridiculous 22-6 SU record over their last 28 games. But they have been blown out two of the last three times they’ve taken the court, including 126-114 at Milwaukee on Wednesday. I’ll call for them to lose B2B games - for the first time in almost a month - as they visit Denver tonight, short-handed. 

The Grizzlies likely will not have two of their top three scorers for this game. Dillon Brooks is out with an injured ankle while Desmond Bane is in health and safety protocol. That’s a tough break when getting set to face a Nuggets team that has scored 130 (or more) points in three of its last four contests. Now the last game saw Denver have to go to OT to beat the Clippers, but they got a triple double from MVP Nikola Jokic, who had 49 points. As the season progresses, expect the Nuggets to solidify themselves as a top six team in the West. 

Memphis is 14-7 SU on the road thus far, but their point differential indicates that might be a fortunate mark. They’re only scoring 0.4 PPG more than they allow away from home. This is a big double revenge game for Denver as they’ve lost twice at Memphis this season, including by just two points in the last meeting. Both those games were in early November. It’s not just two of the top three scorers that are out for the Grizzlies, three other players are in protocol as well. Look for the revenge-minded Nuggets to take advantage. 10* Denver

8* Under Michigan State/Wisconsin (9:00 ET): I happen to think both of these teams are slightly overrated. Do they belong in the Top 25? Yes. But not top 15 and in the case of Wisconsin, definitely not top 10. Despite losing last night, Purdue remains the favorite in the Big 10. As for who is the second best team in the conference, I’d point to another team that is in action tonight, that being Illinois. 

But now to the game that’s taking place tonight. Wisconsin is on two separate seven-game streaks right now. Not only have they won seven in a row, all seven wins have gone Over the total. (They’ve also covered the spread in five straight). I think the O/U streak is the one more likely to be snapped tonight. While this O/U is in line with most recent games, the Badgers probably won’t shoot as well here as they did Tuesday at Northwestern (51.9%). They scored 41 points in each half. 

Michigan State hasn’t played since Saturday when they saw their nine-game win streak come to an end, 64-62 at the hands of Northwestern. The Spartans lost despite holding N’western to 34.8% shooting. It was the second straight game decided by two points for Sparty. Previously, they’d beaten Minnesota 71-69. They hold teams to just 65.6 PPG and 29% from behind the three-point arc. Wisconsin doesn’t turn the ball over much (fewest in the country!), but has also been LIVING at the free throw line, which may not continue. 8* Under Michigan State/Wisconsin

10* Oral Roberts (8:00 ET): Oral Roberts is looking to keep pace with South Dakota State (who handed them their lone conference loss) in the Summit League. The Eagles are flying high with a 6-1 SU conference record and have won five straight since going down 82-76 at SDSU back on December 22nd (did cover as 9-point underdogs). It’s a fairly easy matchup on the docket for Thursday, one that I believe ORU is going to win in blowout fashion. 

North Dakota is at the opposite end of the Summit League spectrum right now. The Fighting Hawks are 0-5 SU in conference play and 4-14 SU overall this season. Things have been pretty ugly for some time now as they’ve dropped 13 of the last 15 games and both wins were against non-DI opponents. The last time ND won a game was December 14th. Their eight road games have all resulted in defeat, by an average of almost 20 PPG. They’ve covered the spread in just one of them. This promises to be one of the toughest road trips of the season. 

Oral Roberts has covered seven of its last eight games. They have dominated at home this season, averaging 90.7 PPG while allowing only 59.4. I expect the margin of victory tonight to approach 30 points. The Eagles are shooting above 44% from three at home while allowing opponents to shoot just 27.1%. North Dakota is getting torched on the defensive end with the first five conference opponents shooting better than 50%.. The Fighting Hawks are 24-47 ATS their L71 games, including 9-29 on the road. 10* Oral Roberts

10* Over Suns/Mavericks (7:35 ET): Two hot teams meet in Dallas, on TNT, tonight. The Suns are looking to complete a perfect 5-0 road trip while the Mavs have won three straight at home and four in a row overall. While Dallas has been playing excellent defense of late, evident by the fact the Under has hit in 11 of their last 12 games including each of the last six, keeping Phoenix in check will be a tall order. 

Over their last three games, the league-leading Suns have won by an average of 19.7 points. Devin Booker is leading the charge by scoring 37.7 PPG in those L3 wins and he turned in a season-high 48 in the 121-107 win at San Antonio on Monday. Do note that Phoenix trailed going into the 4Q of that last game, but was able to hold the Spurs to just 16 points over the last 12 minutes. Don’t think they’re going to be able to do that again, although from the Suns’ perspective it may not matter if they continue scoring the way they have. They are averaging 112.5 PPG for the season. 

Dallas held Toronto to 38.5% shooting, including 8 of 32 from three-point range, in the last game. There’s virtually no shot they can keep the Suns in check to that degree. It's the combination of defensive efficiency and slow pace that has led to the recent rash of Unders for the Mavs, but eventually one of these games is going to go Over and I think they’ve got the right “dance partner” tonight. Dallas has also shot VERY poorly from three-point range in its last five games, which I feel is going to change. 10* Over Suns/Mavericks

8* Georgetown (5:00 ET): Things have gone rather poorly for the Hoyas of late. They’ve lost four in a row, including three straight by double digits to open Big East play. COVID-19 has certainly played a significant role with even HC Patrick Ewing having to miss games. Ewing is expected back on the bench tonight though and I’m expecting a bit of an inspired effort. It also helps that G’town is facing an opponent that’s also been in a battle with COVID, causing them to be inactive for nearly two weeks. 

That would be Providence, a team who I already felt was overrated and not worthy of being ranked in the Top 25. The Friars have the #1 “luck rating” (per KenPom) in the country this season. Their record is 14-2 and they are ranked #21 in the country coming into this game. However, my power ratings don’t even think of them as a top 45 team. After a 12-day layoff, expect the Friars to struggle a bit here, especially at the outset. 

Earlier this month, before their COVID pause, I played against Providence twice. The first play went even better than expected as the Friars got destroyed by Marquette, 88-56, thus proving my point about them being overrated. Two days later, they bounced back with an 83-73 win over St. John’s (at home), but note they were down at halftime in that one. Georgetown is desperate and with Providence coming off such an extended (unplanned) layoff, I’m taking the points. 8* Georgetown

8* Villanova (8:00 ET): This pains me a bit as Marquette treated me so nicely in convincing victories over Providence (88-56) and Georgetown (92-64) earlier this month. The Golden Eagles have now won four in a row after home wins over DePaul and Seton Hall in the L10 days. But they’re running into an even hotter - and better - squad this evening. Villanova is currently ranked #11 in the country and probably ought to be even higher. Both KenPom and my own power ratings have the Wildcats as a top five team. 

‘Nova certainly looked like a Top 5 team on Sunday when they blasted Butler for a 40-point win. That was the Wildcats’ sixth consecutive victory, four of those coming by 15 points or greater. The 82-42 beatdown of Butler tied their largest MOV for the season, matching what they did all the way back in the very first game (beat Mount St. Mary’s 91-51). Jay Wright’s team shot almost 60% overall from the floor on Sunday and was 12 of 19 from three-point range. 

 Now you may be thinking it will be difficult to repeat that kind of performance. That’s true, but we also don’t need a 40-point win here. Villanova is 6-0 SU at home with an average margin of victory of 29.1 PPG though! Marquette had some shooting issues in the 2H vs. Seton Hall on Saturday, a game they won by a single point on a late free throw. The ultra-slow tempo that Nova likes to play at will bother the Golden Eagles here. As good as they’ve looked recently, Marquette is still not a Top 40 team in the country. 8* Villanova

10* Brooklyn (7:10 ET): I gotta believe this is where the Nets get back on track. I know that they are without Kevin Durant for the time being, but James Harden is still here and because tonight is a road game, that means Kyrie Irving is eligible to play. The Nets have been better this season on the road anyway, sporting a 15-5 SU record (as opposed to only 12-11 SU at home). They did lose in Cleveland on Monday, but have won four straight off a SU loss. Take the points.

This play is also guided by the fact I’m not a big believer in the Wizards, who I think could fall out of the top ten in the Eastern Conference by season’s end. Propping the Wizards up so far is an extremely fortunate 8-2 SU record in games decided by three points or less. That’s the most “close wins” in the league right now. In fact, no other team has more than five. The Wiz are also 3-0 SU in OT games this season. Now I’ll give them some credit for an impressive 117-98 beatdown of Philadelphia the other night. But before that, Washington had failed to cover six straight games. Five of those ATS losses were as favorites.

Brooklyn has also struggled at the betting window this month, going just 2-9 ATS their L11 games. So something will have to “give” in that regard tonight. I just find it hard to believe, that with Harden and Irving in the lineup, that the Nets are underdogs to a team like the Wizards, who have the third worst point differential and fourth worst net efficiency in the Eastern Conference. Brooklyn is 4-2 SU/ATS as an underdog this year. 10* Brooklyn

10* Navy (7:00 ET): Navy will look to continue its mastery of Lehigh as it looks to stay atop the Patriot League standings after tonight. The Midshipmen come in sporting a 5-1 SU conference record, tied with Loyola MD for first place. All the Patriot League teams are in action Wednesday, including Loyola, who is also at home against Boston U. Of the co-leaders, the Middies have the easier matchup. They are 4-0 SU/ATS the L2 seasons against Lehigh, who comes in at just 6-12 SU overall on the year. 

Now Lehigh has been a bit pesky as an underdog this season, covering all four times the oddsmakers have given them 12.5 or more points. But the Mountain Hawks also lost all four of those games - to Rutgers, Virginia, Maryland and Yale - three of them by double digits. There was a 4-1 run to open conference play, including a rather shocking 97-64 win at Bucknell (as 3.5-point underdog), however Lehigh then “came back down to Earth” on Sunday, losing at Loyola MD by 12 as a two-point home dog. 

Navy is only 4-3 SU at home in 2021-22, which is somewhat surprising. Their lone conference loss did occur here in Annapolis, 69-50 to Colgate, just last Thursday. But the Midshipmen quickly responded by sinking Boston U on the road, 72-65, on Sunday. I can’t see them dropping B2B home games in league play. This Navy team plays solid defense as it gives up only 59.9 PPG. They are 9-2 ATS when favored this season and 27-10 ATS in the chalk role the L3 seasons. This number should be closer to -20. 10* Navy

8* UNC Asheville (6:30 ET): While I don’t think UNC Asheville is going to win the Big South this year, the Bulldogs can certainly still be a “player” in the mix. But first they’ll need to get back on track after suffering a couple of close defeats. The previous seven days brought heartbreak against both Winthrop and USC Upstate as Asheville lost those respective games in overtime and in the closing seconds. They were 8.5 point favorites here at home against USC Upstate on Saturday. I can’t see B2B losses as home chalk. 

Against Winthrop, the Bulldogs had a decided edge in three-point shooting, but couldn’t stop the Eagles from inside the arc. Winthrop went a somewhat insane 31 of 49 on 2PA in that game. Then against USC Upstate, it was three-point shooting that killed Asheville. They let the opponents hit 60% from behind the arc while only hitting 15% themselves. I’m definitely sensing there will be a “reversal” in shooting percentage tonight as the Bulldogs face a team that’s shooting just 42.5% overall for the season, including 31.3% from three. 

North Carolina A&T had won four straight before running into High Point on Saturday. That 78-71 loss was the Aggies’ first setback in league play thus far. But this team is just 2-8 SU in “true” road games as well as 2-8 SU as an underdog. This line looks a bit “short,” doesn’t it? UNC Asheville is allowing only 59.4 PPG and 26.7% shooting from three this season at home, where it is 7-2 SU. The gap between these teams is bigger than what this number reflects. 8* UNC Asheville

8* Houston (8:00 ET): Houston, who was in the Final Four last season, is a team I believe should have been in the Top 10 long ago. They’re finally there after seven straight wins, most of which have been by double digits. But the Cougars did survive a close one Saturday at Tulsa, holding on for a two-point win as 11-point favorites. Injuries continue to mount for Kelvin Sampson’s team, but note they were up 17 at the half on Tulsa. Here they face a team that just beat by 17 on the road earlier this month. 

Including the one vs. Houston, South Florida had lost its first three conference games by an average of just over 14 PPG. But the Bulls then pulled off a somewhat shocking result on Saturday, beating UCF 75-51 as an eight-point dog. But that was at home and the opponent had an absolutely miserable shooting night, making only 33.3% for the game including 2 of 20 from three-point range. That led to USF’s biggest margin of victory over UCF in seven years. The other key was a near 2:1 rebounding edge (53-26). 

All of the Bulls’ victories this season have come when they have an edge on the boards. That is unlikely to happen tonight as Houston typically controls the glass and will be using a larger lineup due to the injuries in the backcourt. The Cougars are 9-0 SU at home this season, winning by an average of almost 30 PPG. USF is shooting just 38.4% for the season and can’t count on UH shooting the ball as poorly as UCF did. The Cougars have won all five meetings the L3 seasons, four of them by 17+ points. 8* Houston

8* Connecticut (7:00 ET): UConn has (finally) cracked the Top 25 this week, but this is a team I’ve considered “worthy of being ranked” for some time now. The Huskies are actually 15th in my own personal power ratings. Were they a bit fortunate to get by St. John’s, in overtime, last Wednesday? Yes, they were. They tied the game on a foul shot with just 1.3 seconds left in regulation. But it was also a much-deserved result following close losses to Providence and Seton Hall. 

UConn has already played four OT games this season. After some postponements around the holiday, each of the L2 games have required “extra time.” But this one won’t as the Huskies host a Butler team that’s coming off a 40-point loss at Villanova on Sunday. UConn has been excellent in Storrs this season, going 7-1 and outscoring teams by almost 26 PPG. Their overall scoring margin for the season (+15.1 PPG) ranks 17th nationally and they are averaging 80.3 PPG, which is 24th. 

UConn had another postponement on Saturday as they were set to face Providence. So the schedule sets up quite nicely for them here. They’ve been off for five days while Butler is playing its third road game in five days and second in the last 72 hours. While Sunday was their worst loss of the season, the Bulldogs have been getting blown out regularly. Six times they’ve been beaten by at least 15 points. Tonight figures to add to that list. Rebounding has been a major concern thus far for Butler and UConn is strong on the boards. 8* Connecticut

10* Eastern Kentucky (7:00 ET): Eastern Kentucky’s maiden season in the Atlantic Sun Conference (they were formerly in the Ohio Valley Conference) has gotten off to a bit of a rocky start. The Colonels are 0-4 SU/ATS in league play and what’s shocking about that is the fact they were favored in all four games! Almost every game has been close and tonight is a spot where I figure EKU is set to get back on track. They are hosting a Lipscomb team that’s lost three in a row and is just 8-11 SU on the season. 

Now EKU is only 8-10 SU, but this number set by the oddsmakers really “speaks volumes” doesn’t it? The Colonels’ record really should be a whole lot better as they are 0-5 SU in games decided by five points or less. The first season in a new conference can be tough, but what is killing EKU right now is that they are shooting just 37.4% vs. A-Sun opponents. You’ve got to figure that number will improve, while at the same time they won’t be letting teams shoot 50.9% against them. At home, the Colonels are averaging 86.1 PPG while allowing only 67.7.

Lipscomb has shot 52.8% so far in conference play, yet is only 1-3 SU in those four games, which should tell you something about how poorly they play defense. The Bisons are giving up over 80 PPG for the year and the last four road games have seen them allow 88, 93, 95 and 97! This is the first ever trip to Richmond, KY for Lipscomb and it doesn’t figure to go well. Look for the home team to record its first ever A-Sun victory! 10* Eastern Kentucky

10* San Antonio (8:40 ET): The Spurs FINALLY got back into the win column on Saturday, beating the Clippers 101-94 as a 1-point home favorite. It was just their second win since the day after X-Mas, the other was by just two points at Boston on January 5th. But, I’ve previously made the case that this team is better than its record (currently 16-27 SU) and they should find their way into the play-in round mix. At home, San Antonio has actually outscored opponents despite an 8-12 mark here. 

Phoenix is in the second game of a back to back. They played Detroit yesterday afternoon and that meant an easy win as they raced to a 135-108 decision over the worst team in the league. But not all the news was good as DeAndre Ayton was lost to an ankle injury in the first quarter and thus is likely to miss this game. Being without one of your top players is a tough break when playing w/o rest. This is also the Suns’ fourth straight road game and third in the past four days.

San Antonio has been competitive in two previous meetings with Phoenix, losing both by just four points. I expect better offensive efficiency from the Spurs here than what they showed in the win over the Clippers. That game saw them score a season-low 36 points in the paint and shoot just 41.0% from the field. Yet seven players still finished in double figures, led by PG Murray’s 18. Phoenix will NOT shoot as well as they did on Sunday (58.6%), so take the points in this one. 10* San Antonio

10* UMKC (8:00 ET): Kansas City (UMKC) is a Summit League side that I feel has been underrated by the oddsmakers most of this season. This isn’t the first time I’ve backed the Roos. Back in December, they came through as a 10* play for me, beating Green Bay 64-55. They’ve gone just 3-3 SU in six games since that win and lost 84-72 as a 4.5-point home dog to Oral Roberts over the weekend. But this shapes up as the easiest matchup since that win over Green Bay over a month ago. I’m laying the number. 

Denver will be playing its third road game in five days here. That’s a tough spot, especially for a team that’s a hideous 1-11 SU away from home this season. They are 0-10 SU in “true” road games, including losses to South Dakota and South Dakota State last week. The Pioneers gave up 80 points in both games and never really threatened either time. They’ve now lost three in a row overall and their last four defeats have all been by nine points or more. 

UMKC has been a rather dominant home team thus far. They are 5-1 SU here and have outscored opponents by 27.6 points per game! They are scoring 81.8 PPG and allowing just 54.2. I expect solid shooting in this game from the Roos as Denver is giving up more than 80 PPG in conference play. Certainly, the home team is due for an uptick in shooting after making only 39.7% in their first four Summit League games.They are shooting 48.7% from the floor at home. The Roos captured both meetings last season by a 12 point margin. 10* UMKC

8* Portland (7:00 ET): Portland has been a hot team at the betting window, covering the spread in each of its last four contests. Last time out, the Pilots evened their SU conference record at 1-1 with a rather dominating 82-63 win at Pepperdine. What was impressive about that showing wasn’t just the fact that Portland was a 6.5-point road underdog, but that they were also coming off a narrow OT loss just 48 hours prior. This team easily could be 4-0 SU (as well as 4-0 ATS) its last four games as the two losses have been by a total of seven points. I’m definitely taking the points here. 

Meanwhile, Loyola Marymount is reeling a bit as they’ve dropped B2B games to open the WCC schedule, both on the road. After getting waxed 97-73 by San Francisco (2nd best team in the league), the Lions were upset (as three-point favorites) at San Diego on Saturday. LMU has now dropped four of five overall with three of the losses coming by exactly five points. Their lone win in that stretch came at Bellarmine. 

Loyola Marymount will be thrilled to be back home after, like Portland, playing its last four games on the road. But home court advantage alone does not justify a double digit spread here. The Lions have actually lost two straight at home, losing to New Mexico State and Grand Canyon, both times as a short favorite. I’m a little shocked at how big this number is, considering that Portland has held the L4 opponents to an average of 61 PPG in regulation. In both losses, they had a halftime lead. An outright upset would not surprise me here. 8* Portland

10* Utah (8:15 ET): Even though they have lost four in a row and fallen to fourth place in the Western Conference standings, the Jazz remain second overall in my NBA power ratings (trailing only Golden State). When looking at this four-game losing streak, it is critical to note that Rudy Gobert has missed all of the games. Gobert has been cleared to return, giving the team its top defensive presence back, and I think that leads to a return to winning ways tonight in Denver. 

The Nuggets have seemingly established themselves as a top six team in the West with B2B dominant wins. It was a 140-108 drubbing of Portland on Thursday. That was a result I was happy to see, having laid the points with the Nuggets. But recall why I did so. The Blazers were extremely short-handed going into that game, including no Lillard or McCollum. Last night, Denver was a 133-96 winner over the Lakers, who are still without Anthony Davis. 

You’ve got to wonder if the Nuggets “used up” all of its good shooting last night. They made 57.5% from three-point range, a display that they cannot possibly hope to repeat here, especially if Gobert does return for Utah. Denver has really struggled on the second night of back to backs this season, going just 1-5 SU/ATS in this situation. The Jazz have had three days off to get ready for this game, so the schedule really sets up nicely for them to end this rare losing skid. 10* Utah

8* St. John’s (4:30 ET): The Red Storm suffered another tough loss on Wednesday, falling 86-78 at UConn in overtime. It was a game they thought they had won when Julian Champagnie hit a three-pointer with 4.8 seconds left in regulation, giving the Johnnies a 71-70 lead. But a late foul call, on a putback attempt, allowed for UConn to tie the game by making one of two free throw attempts. For St. John’s, that loss comes on the heels of blowing a halftime lead at Providence (and losing 83-73) last Saturday. 

On Sunday afternoon, the Johnnies are catching the right team. Georgetown has lost three in a row, all at home, as COVID has played a role. Two double digit scorers and coach Patrick Ewing were out for Thursday’s 72-58 loss to Butler. That came after a game I played against the Hoyas. They were three-point underdogs at Marquette on 1/7 and ended up losing 92-64. Ewing really ripped the team after that one, but as of yet, his words have had zero effect. G’town is 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season and this will be just their second “true” road game. 

All nine St. John’s wins this season have been at home where they are averaging 84.9 PPG. A possibly depleted G’town squad isn’t going to be able to stay within that kind of number. Even if they were at full strength, I wouldn’t like the Hoyas’ chances here. The Red Storm have three double-digit scorers, led by Champagnie’s 21.2 PPG. This is a team that’s better than its record. The oddsmakers seem to know that and I’ll lay the number. 8* St. John’s

10* Boston (8:40 ET): The Bulls didn’t just lose a game last night, they also lost Zach LaVine to a knee injury. LaVine did not travel with the team to Boston as he’s set to have a MRI. The belief is that the injury isn’t too serious, but obviously he isn’t playing Saturday. Chicago’s depth was already being tested with Alex Caruso, Derrick Jones Jr., Javonte Green and Tyler Cook all on the mend. Perhaps of greater concern is that the Bulls have now given up 138 points in B2B games, letting the Nets and Warriors both shoot 56% from the field.

Now the Celtics aren’t as prolific as either of those two squads, but they are capable of hanging a big number on the Bulls here. Boston was also in action Friday night and the result wasn’t good as they fell 111-99 at Philadelphia. They were down by as many as 28 thanks to a terrible first quarter. But the game prior saw the C’s shoot rather well as they got 30+ point games from both Tatum and Brown. This is a better team at home where their SU record is 13-8.

Chicago has lost its last two games by a combined 68 points, so they are reeling. That’s the first time since the NBA instituted the conference format (in 1970) that a first place team lost consecutive games by an average of 30 PPG. This is a big revenge spot for Boston, who blew a 14-point 4Q lead here at home and lost to Chicago back on Nov 1. Even before the LaVine injury, I was a bit skeptical of the Bulls’ ability to remain on top of the East. The Celtics, meanwhile, should be higher than they are in the standings. Lay the points. 10* Boston

10* Texas (2:00 ET): Still not sold on Iowa State’s #15 rating as they are outside the top 40 in my own power ratings. The Cyclones have won just ONE of their last 22 Big XII games and that was by four points over Texas Tech last week. They are coming off B2B road losses here, the first of which was at Oklahoma last Saturday. ISU was a six-point dog to an unranked team there, which should tell you all you need to know. They were double digit dogs at Kansas on Wednesday and lost by one, 62-61. 

Texas just beat Oklahoma, though in Austin, 66-52 and comes into this game ranked #22. I’ve got them higher at #15 in my own power ratings, so it’s not at all surprising to see the Longhorns favored here in Ames. What I really like about this team is the fact they lead in the country in scoring defense at 53.0 PPG allowed. Against Oklahoma, they allowed just 40% shooting, including 1 of 13 from three-point range. Only Gonzaga, all the way back in the second game of the season, has been able to crack 64 against UT. 

Iowa State trailed Kansas by nine late in the game Wednesday. They shot just 40.7%. That was after shooting 55% against Oklahoma, an effort negated by them allowing 61.7% shooting in the same game. It was a poor shooting effort in the victory over Texas Tech at 30%. I’m just going to stick with what I said last Saturday when taking OU minus the points. The Cyclones are due to tumble out of the Top 25. Their recent offensive showings tell me it could be an ugly day at that end here. 10* Texas

10* Richmond (9:00 ET): This is a critical home game for Richmond, who already has two conference losses. They welcome in a Davidson team that is 13-2 SU overall and 3-0 in A-10 play. I say the Spiders should still be the favorites here; they are 7-1 SU at home and have had Davidson’s number the last few years. Head to head, Richmond has won seven of the last nine head to head matchups while also going 8-1 ATS. The circumstances dictate that they’ll be the more “desperate” (and aggressive) team tonight. 

Richmond did pick up its first league win last time out, beating UMass 80-72. They failed to cover the spread, but it was 10.5 points. Just a win is all we need here and the schedule certainly sets up well for the Spiders. That win against UMass took place on January 5th, nine days ago. They’ve had two games postponed since. Davidson was in action this past Tuesday, also against UMass (won 77-67). The Wildcats have actually played two games in the time since Richmond last took the court. 

The other was a 72-68 win over Rhode Island. Like the game vs. UMass, that was at home. Davidson is 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS in “true” road games thus far, but save for the cross-country trip to face San Francisco (which they lost), this is the toughest one. The Wildcats didn’t cover in either of those last two victories and Richmond is a place where they’ve lost AND failed to cover three straight times. Note that Richmond was up 19 at the half over UMass and won comfortably despite the Minutemen shooting 55% from three. This spot sets us quite well for the home team. 10* Richmond

8* Orlando (7:05 ET): It’s been a great four-game run for Charlotte, who won by 29 over Detroit, beat Milwaukee twice (both times at home) and then went to Philadelphia to pick up a 109-98 victory on Wednesday. The Hornets are now up to seventh in the East and just one game out of fifth. This despite having a negative scoring differential on the season and the second worst scoring defense in the league. This is a big number for them to lay; they’ve only been favored in 10 games all season! 

Meanwhile, Orlando hasn’t been able to get over the hump. They suffered a 10th consecutive loss on Wednesday, falling in Washington 112-106 to the Wizards. I cashed them as underdogs though. Five of the Magic’s last six losses have been by six points or less. They’ve led or been tied going into the 4Q in four of those six games. Wednesday saw them dig an early hole (trailed 33-16 after 1Q) but they fought back valiantly. As they have gotten closer to full strength, the Magic have had four different leading scorers in the last five games. 

What will cost Charlotte the cover in this game is their defense. I know that they somehow held Milwaukee and Philadelphia below 100 points the L2 games. But for the season, the Hornets are allowing 115.5 PPG. Unless they “go off” at the offensive end (something I don’t see happening), it’s going to be incredibly difficult to cover a spread this large with the defensive regression I am projecting. Orlando does have double revenge here from two prior losses to the Hornets this season. Both losses were by single digits. 8* Orlando

10* Over Suns/Pacers (7:05 ET): What a tough season it’s been for Indiana. They are 15-27 SU and have just one win (against Houston) since X-Mas. I don’t think the team has played all that poorly. They own a better YTD point differential than 7th place Charlotte, but have been doomed by an awful 1-10 record in games decided by three points or less. Things weren’t close on Wednesday though as the Pacers shot a season-worst 19.4% (7 of 36) from three-point range. Only one player (Justin Holliday) made more than one three in the 119-100 loss to the Celtics. 

Phoenix wasn’t much better offensively in its last game, though they did win 99-95 in Toronto, a game that had no fans present. All five Suns starters finished in double figures, but the reserves combined to score just 21 points. You’ve got to expect more than that here, right? The Suns average 111.8 PPG, but have been below that number each of their last three games. As is the case with Indiana, I’m expecting a bit of an offensive breakthrough by the road team in this Friday night matchup. 

The Pacers average 11 made three-pointers per game, so that’s an area where I expect them to improve quite a bit from the last time. The Suns held the Raptors to 21.6% from behind the arc, so it works both ways. Not only is Indiana set to improve, Phoenix is set to regress defensively. Indiana actually averages 111.5 PPG at home. But at the same time, I can’t see the Suns not improving their offensive numbers as well. I think both teams are reaching 110 points in this game. That means Over is the call. 10* Over Suns/Pacers

10* Arizona (11:00 ET): There are two other Pac 12 teams (#3 UCLA, #5 USC) ranked higher in the polls than #6 Arizona coming into tonight. But I believe the Wildcats are the best team in this conference. Assuming they handle their business the rest of this week, they will pass USC, who just suffered its first loss of the season. Tonight, ‘Zona faces a Colorado team that’s won five straight, but really isn’t a threat. The game is in Tucson where the Wildcats are a perfect 8-0 this season, winning by an average margin of nearly 35 points per game! 

Now Arizona has failed to cover each of its last four games. But three of those saw them favored by more than 24 points. Those three games saw them win by double digits each time, every win coming by 16 pts or greater. Mixed in was a four-point loss to a good Tennessee team (#22) on the road, their only defeat all season. So far the Wildcats have played two conference games and they defeated Oregon State by 25 and Washington by 16. This is one of just eight teams in the country to rank in the top 20 nationally in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Not only do they lead the country in scoring at 89.9 PPG, but they play VERY fast (third in adjusted tempo). 

There’s a pretty sizable gap between the top three and everyone else in the Pac 12. Colorado is about to find out that Arizona isn’t just one of the best in the conference, but in the entire country. The Buffaloes prefer to slow the game down, but for the reasons listed above, it’s going to be difficult to play that kind of game here. CU is 0-9 SU in Tucson since joining the Pac 12 a decade ago. While the Buffs may be on a five-game win streak, all those victories came in Boulder. Alarming is how they’ve shot just 22% from three-point range away from home this season. Their only “true” road game came at UCLA and they lost there by 12. This one promises to be even uglier. Lay the points. 10* Arizona

10* Denver (10:05 ET): Portland is in a very bad spot here. They are now without both Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum for an indefinite period of time. The starting backcourt is really the “heart and soul” of this team and truthfully the Blazers haven’t even been that strong this year when one or both plays. They have a 16-24 SU record, including 2-13 away from home where they are being beaten by an average of 12.2 PPG! The underdog role has not suited them well as their ATS record when getting points is just 5-14. I know they were able to stun Brooklyn the other night, but that was at home. 

For the record, Lillard is undergoing abdominal surgery and will be re-evaluated in 6-8 weeks time. McCollum has missed the previous 16 games due to a lung injury and paternity leave. Denver isn’t about to take it easy on the undermanned Blazers. Not after blowing a 25-point lead and losing 87-85 to the Clippers on Tuesday. Coach Michael Malone ripped his team after it was outscored 32-19 in the final quarter by LA. So the Nuggets should be motivated from the “get-go” here. Earlier in the year, they hosted Portland and won 124-95 as a 6.5-point favorite. Considering all the absences for the Blazers tonight, I’m really surprised the home team isn’t favored by more. 

It’s not just Lillard and McCollum that are out for Portland. They were without Norman Powell and Larry Nance Jr on Tuesday, making the win over the Nets all the more shocking. Neither of those two are expected to play tonight either. Nor is Cody Zeller or Anfernee Simmons. Playing with a “skeleton crew” couldn’t come at a worse time as the team is about to embark on a six-game road trip. Denver is top five in the league in PPG allowed at home. This should get ugly in a hurry, so lay the points. 10* Denver

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): My only losing bet in the last three days came with the Timberwolves. It was on Tuesday and they were laying a short number, on the road, against New Orleans. The T’wolves were coming off their highest scoring game of the season, a 141-123 win in Houston, and had won four straight overall. It seemed like a prudent play. Unfortunately, by their own admission, the team came in overconfident and lost 128-125 with the game decided on a Brandon Ingram three-pointer with just 1.3 seconds remaining. "We acted like we were just going to walk in, get a win, and it's going to be sweet," Karl-Anthony Towns said. "I don't know if we thought, like, we're the Warriors all of a sudden.

It’s not the Warriors that the T’wolves will be facing here, but it’s arguably the hottest team in the NBA as Memphis has won 10 straight and 20 of its last 24 games. This is a step up in class for Minnesota after the last three road games were all against bottom tier Western Conference teams. But the good news is that Minny has beaten Memphis this year and did so in emphatic fashion, 138-95, back on November 20th. While that was a home game, take note that the T’wolves also took the Grizzlies to overtime earlier in the year here in Memphis.

While it’s a little risky to fade a team as hot as the Grizzlies are right now, I believe it’s an opportune time to “sell high” on them. They just beat the Warriors on Tuesday, and the Lakers before that, so a “lesser” team like the T’wolves may not command their full attention. Also, while Memphis is 9-1 ATS during the 10-game SU win streak, they’ve been underdogs in half the games. Only once, against Detroit, have they been favored by more than 5.5 at the betting window. Minnesota is #6 in the conference in point differential and net efficiency. With their starting five healthy, they are 9-3 SU this season. Take the points. 8* Minnesota

analysis soon

10* Orlando (7:10 ET): The Magic are obviously not a great team. They’re not even a good team. They have their worst 41-game record in franchise history (7-34 SU) and have lost a season-high nine in a row. HOWEVER, they have been playing better recently and don’t have players currently in health & safety protocols. The Magic probably should have picked up a win (or two) in the L5 games, a stretch which has seen them lose four times by four points or less. They’ve led or been tied going into the 4Q in all but one of those five games as well. 

One of the close losses came Sunday at home to Washington, who the Magic have an immediate rematch with tonight. The Wizards had to play a game in between, which they won last night, 122-118 over Oklahoma City. The Wizards have thrived in close games this season, going 8-2 SU in those decided by three points or less. That’s how they’ve maintained a better than .500 record despite having the third worst point differential in the Eastern Conference. I think they’re due to tumble. 

While Orlando is relatively healthy, Washington saw leading scorer Bradley Beal have to re-enter health and safety protocol last night. The Wizards lost two of three games the last time Beal was in protocol. With this being the second night of a back to back, it’s a tough spot, and I cannot see the team matching its 54% shooting from last night nor can I see Kuzma or Dinwiddie matching their respective individual performances vs. the Thunder. Orlando is due for a win while Washington, whose L3 wins have been by a TOTAL of seven points, is due for a loss. Take the points. 10* Orlando

8* Minnesota (7:00 ET): Michigan State comes into this game ranked #10 in the country, which seems too high. My power rankings obviously still consider Sparty to be a Top 25 team, but Top 10 seems a “bit rich.” I was set to fade them on Saturday when they were scheduled to hit the road to face unranked Michigan, who was a slight favorite to win. But that game had to be postponed due to COVID. Might that interruption have an adverse effect on the Spartans tonight? I wouldn’t be surprised if it did.

This is also a revenge game for underdog Minnesota, who was 7-0 SU back when they hosted MSU in the Big 10 opener back on 12/8. The Golden Gophers ended up losing that game 75-67, on what was a poor shooting night for them (just 26.1% from three), and falling into a 13-point halftime hole was the key. Even though they’re now on the road, and off back to back losses, look for a better start from the Gophers tonight. This is a critical game for them as they are off to a 1-3 start in Big 10 play. 

Back to the cancellation from Saturday, Michigan State is just 1-6 ATS the last seven times it has played with five or six days rest. This is a lot of points to lay in a conference game, especially considering the Spartans’ issues turning the ball over. They did not cover a similar spread vs. Nebraska last week. While 13-2 SU looks nice, MSU hasn’t exactly played a “murderers row” in the Big 10 thus far. Minnesota has had to face Illinois and Indiana and shot just 20% from three-point range in those two losses. Expect more shots to fall for them tonight and they’ll stay within the number as a result. Take the points. 8* Minnesota

10* Wofford (7:00 ET): For those that even bother to dig “this deep” into the College Basketball card, there may be some sense of surprise that a 9-7 team is favored by so many points against an 11-4 team. But, with this number, oddsmakers are basically telling you what they think of Wofford and Samford and I agree that the disparity is wide. Wofford will be going for their ninth straight head to head win in this SoCon rivalry. The previous eight have been by an average of 10 points, which is what the line is currently (as of this writing). 

Safe to say that Samford won’t be able to match the performance they turned in for the last game. Facing one of the weaker teams in the league (Western Carolina), the Bulldogs shot 50% from the field while allowing just 33.9% en route to an 85-60 blowout. It was their largest MOV all season, even more than the two times they faced a non-DI foe. BUT, this is a team that has an incredible FIVE wins by two points or less. Two of those were against “power conference” teams (Ole Miss, Oregon St), but I believe tonight’s game will more closely resemble the Bulldogs’ recent trip to Furman, where they lost by 32 points. 

Wofford probably feels like they “let one get away” as on Monday they lost 58-54 to UNC Greensboro. The Terriers had a 10-point halftime lead (on the road) after holding UNCG to just 18 points! But the 2H was completely different as they were outscored 40-24. It was a game Wofford led most of the way. They are now just 1-3 SU in conference play (despite being favored all four times), so look for tonight to be a “statement” game of sorts. At home, the Terriers are averaging 81.7 PPG, but perhaps more telling is that they shoot 51.0% from the field. Samford is shooting just 40.7% on the road. Lay the points. 10* Wofford

10* Minnesota (8:10 ET): The Timberwolves are on a four-game win streak here and coming off two of their highest scoring games of the entire season. After walloping OKC 135-105 last Friday, it was time to establish a new season-high in points on Sunday with a 141-123 beatdown at Houston. You may be thinking that this sounds like an apt time to “sell high” on the T’wolves, but think again. When this team has its starting five intact, they have been very impressive. They are 18-10 SU when just Towns and Russell are available. When the full starting five plays, their record is 9-2 (Beverley could return here). 

The T’wolves’ travels next take them to New Orleans as they continue the face the worst the Western Conference has to offer. This is the fourth straight game for them against the bottom three in the West as they got to face OKC twice before blowing out Houston on Sunday. Given the recent offensive numbers, it shouldn’t be a problem covering this short number tonight as the Pelicans haven’t had many answers for anyone of late. The Pelicans only win in the L5 games came against Golden State, who was extremely short-handed (no Curry, Green or Thompson) at the time. 

Minnesota now has the sixth best point differential in the West, so they seem to be legit. Having only made the playoffs once since 2004, this is a team that should be giving it “their all,” night in and night out. Surprisingly, the T’wolves are top 10 in the league in defensive efficiency and as I said prior to the last game (had the Over vs. Houston), their YTD FG% of 43.7 is due to improve dramatically with Towns and Russell back. I don’t see New Orleans being able to slow them down. The T’wolves have already taken two of the previous three meetings this season despite never shooting better than 40.6% from the field. They’ll shoot much better tonight. 10* Minnesota

10* James Madison (7:00 ET): This is going to be the first time in at least six years that JMU is favored to beat Northeastern. The Dukes did take the last meeting, 79-72 back on January 24th of last year, but did so as 5.5-point dogs. Consider them being favored here as a “changing of the guard” in this rivalry, not to mention a “sign o’ the times” as N’eastern has lost four in a row to fall to 6-8 SU on the year while JMU, despite also being off a loss, is 9-3 SU. I’m laying the short number here. 

For both teams, this will be the second game in three days. As I already mentioned, N’eastern has lost four in a row. The last two defeats have been by a total of four points. They fell 70-67 at Towson on Sunday. While that game ended up being close, N’eastern only led briefly in the first half and never had the advantage after halftime. James Madison lost for the first time at home on Sunday, 87-80 to Hofstra, a game the Dukes led by one at halftime. For most of the second half, it was a one-possession game. 

JMU was on a four-game win streak prior to losing to Hofstra. I think having them having the home court edge for this one is a big deal as their record in Harrisonburg is still 6-1 SU and they are averaging 81.0 PPG while allowing only 59.6 PPG. Meanwhile, this will be Northeastern’s fourth straight road game, a stretch which goes back to before the New Year. The Huskies are only 2-7 SU away from home so far this season and 1-5 ATS in “true” road games. After dropping a couple of close calls, the tank could be "running on empty" for N'eastern. JMU has covered both times this year when it has been a favorite of 3.5 or more points. Last month, they defeated VIRGINIA here at home! 10* James Madison

8* Akron (7:00 ET): The MAC - as per usual - seems pretty wide open this season. Toledo, Ohio & Buffalo should be considered the favorites right now, but not far behind is Akron, who I believe will win 20+ games by the end of the year. The Zips are just 7-4 SU right now, so they’ve got a lot of work to do to “live up” to my projection. A 69-63 home loss last week to Ohio didn’t help matters, but having a full seven days to prepare for this game, a drop in class vs. Ball State, a bounce back should be in order. 

Now Ball State does come in on a four-game ATS win streak and they won on the road Saturday, 78-72 at Eastern Michigan. The Cardinals entered that game as one-point underdogs, but were able to pull the minor upset due to an edge at the FT line (+11 in makes, +18 in attempts) and hitting a much higher percentage of 3PA (50% to 25% for EMU). They also held EMU’s second leading scorer to only seven points on 3 of 10 shooting. It was a solid effort, but also just the second road win of the season for Ball State, whose four previous “true” road games all resulted in double digit defeats. 

Akron hadn’t lost at home before facing Ohio last Tuesday. They were also on a six-game win streak overall. Having had several extra days to prepare is obviously a huge edge for the Zips coming into tonight’s contest. This will be the first time this season that BSU is playing two “true” road games in a span of four days or less. Note the reason for Akron having been off for a week was COVID, which cancelled Saturday’s game vs. Miami and had them short-handed vs. Ohio. But it looks like they’ll have the full complement of players tonight. Ball State is giving up a ton of points per game (84.0 on the road!) while the Zips average 82.2 at home. 8* Akron

8* Texas Southern (8:30 ET): Mississippi Valley State, who is the worst team in all of College Basketball, actually won a game on Saturday. They beat Prairie View A&M 84-82 in overtime, as a 17-point underdog, for their first win of 2021-22. But make no mistake about it, the Delta Devils have a LONG way to go in order to escape the basement of my power ratings. There’s only ONE team in the country that they’d be favored against at home (Delaware State) and that’s not who they are facing tonight. And it’s also a road game. On the road, MVSU is getting outscored by more than 30 points per game this season! 

So this should be the easiest win of the year for a Texas Southern team that’s gotten to play just ONE game at home prior to this. That lone home game was on Saturday and the Tigers ran past Arkansas-Pine Bluff 90-71. Opening the season with 11 consecutive road games is a BRUTAL ask, so look past Texas Southern’s record for this one. My power ratings have them closer to a 30-point favorite over MVSU! 

I think that the “thrill” of picking up their first victory will cause an inevitable “letdown” here for Miss Valley State, whose numbers this season are absolutely hideous. They shoot only 28.8% from three-point range and 36.1% overall. They’re being outscored by 25.6 PPG as they let opponents score 88 PPG on 53.1% shooting. Texas Southern was a 16-point favorite against Ark-Pine Bluff, so they certainly should be a larger favorite here. Look for this to be a complete blowout. 8* Texas Southern

8* Over Jazz/Pistons (7:10 ET): When I first saw this number, I assumed that it was the highest O/U line for any Pistons game this season. But it’s not even their highest of the month. Games against Milwaukee and Charlotte both had higher O/U lines and the one vs. Charlotte is worth mentioning here as the Pistons gave up 140 points in the game. In their most recent game, a 97-92 win over Orlando, the Pistons allowed just 33.7% shooting. But there’s no way we’re going to see anything close to that tonight as they face the team with the most efficient offense in the NBA. 

Utah has dropped back to back games, the latest being a 125-113 loss to Indiana where they let the Pacers hit 55% from the floor. I’ll come back to that in a moment. But know that the last time the Jazz dropped B2B games, they came back to win six in a row. Only Golden State and Phoenix (both 30-9 SU) have better records than the Jazz this year and only the Warriors have a better YTD point differential. As I stated earlier, no team averages more points per possession. Utah also averages a league-best 115.7 points per game. 

But the Jazz are missing their best defender right now, Rudy Gobert, and that played a significant role in them allowing the Pacers to shoot 55% from the floor. I know that Detroit is probably not capable of shooting THAT well, but I do expect them to easily break 100 points in this game. In the first three games after the New Year, the Pistons topped 110 each time. Eight of Utah’s last 10 games have seen at least 225 total points scored. 8* Over Jazz/Pistons

10* Over T’wolves/Rockets (7:10 ET): Minnesota is now fully healthy and on Friday I saw first-hand what they were capable of doing when that’s the case. The T’wolves crushed OKC 135-105 as a relatively short road favorite. That was a mistake by me to doubt this team’s ability to go on the road and beat one of the weakest teams in the league. (In my defense, it was just the second time all season that the T’wolves were road favorites). The situation now repeats itself as they are in Houston on Sunday. 

I’m obviously not going to try and fade the T’wolves again here. The trio of Towns, Russell and Edwards combined for 70 points (on 27 of 39 shooting) Friday. It was just the second game back (from health and safety protocol) for Towns and Russell and clearly this is a playoff caliber team when those two are in the lineup (at least good enough for the play-in round). While Minnesota may not score 135 points again tonight, they should still put up a big number against a Houston team that’s giving up an average of 123.6 points its last five games and 115.9 for the season. The T’wolves’ overall shooting for the season (43.5%) is certainly due to improve. 

The Over is 4-1 in the Rockets’ last five games and that’s despite them shooting only 43.7% themselves. They are putting up 110 PPG when at home this season. Their last game (scored 106 points) was their lowest scoring effort since 12/27 and they were just 12 of 43 from three-point range. So, better offense tonight, coupled with the usual defense from the Rockets should lead to an easy Over. 10* Over T’wolves/Rockets

10* Niagara (1:00 ET): These teams met nine days ago and haven’t played since. Quinnipiac took the first meeting, 77-68 as a 1.5-point home dog, for their fourth consecutive win and cover. The Bobcats shot 53.8% from the floor in that victory, which is well above their season average of 45.2%. They raced out to a big halftime lead and also got a season-high 20 points from Dezi Jones. Now on the road for Sunday’s rematch, I can’t see a repeat performance from Quinnipiac, so look for Niagara to get some revenge here. 

The Purple Eagles have yet to record a conference win this season (0-3 in the MAAC) so they come into today pretty desperate. The switch in home court advantage should prove to be significant for this rematch as Niagara is holding teams to just 63.3 PPG on 39% shooting here in their own gym. Meanwhile, Quinnipiac’s defense gets significantly worse on their travels; they allow 77.2 PPG on 48.3% shooting away from home. 

Three times during this four-game win streak, Quinnipiac has been the underdog. I can’t see a fourth upset taking place over a five-game stretch. Again, Niagara was the slight favorite to win on the road, so we’re getting a good value on them for the rematch. The Purple Eagles are 12-4-1 ATS their L17 home games. The home team has won and covered four of the previous five meetings between these two teams, including a 75-59 Niagara win the lone time they got to play host during that stretch. 10* Niagara

10* Boston (7:40 ET): This is a huge revenge game for the Celtics, who blew a 25-point lead on Thursday and lost to the Knicks 108-105. That game was decided on a RJ Barrett three-pointer, which banked in at the buzzer. For Boston, it was a second straight loss that came down to the final shot. Earlier in the week, they lost 99-97 at home to San Antonio when Jaylen Brown’s driving layup rolled off the rim as time expired. I expect the Celtics to come out highly motivated on Saturday and win big. 

The Knicks probably can’t count on getting 41 points from Evan Fournier, which is what happened in Thursday’s game. While it was a nice come from behind win for NY, you can’t erase the fact that they were down 25 at one point. The Knicks have played a bit better of late, winning five of their last seven, however Thursday was the only game in that stretch where they topped 105 points. In addition to Fournier’s likely regression, I cannot see the team shooting 50% from three-point range again like they did last time out. 

Boston is now 11th in the Eastern Conference, one game back of the Knicks for what would be the final spot in the play-in round. So in addition to the revenge angle, there’s a real sense of urgency coming into tonight’s game. I’m expecting big games from both Brown and Jayson Tatum tonight. The Celtics SHOULD be a top eight team in the East according to most metrics. I can’t see them losing a third straight game as a favorite and they are 6-3 ATS this season off a SU loss as a favorite. 10* Boston

8* Oklahoma (6:00 ET): In all due respect, Iowa State could be the most overrated team in the country right now. The Cyclones are ranked #11 in the country by the pollsters, but my own personal power ratings don’t have them in the Top 50 and they are underdogs here in Norman to an unranked Oklahoma squad. The Sooners have already knocked off a pair of Top 25 opponents this year, Florida and Arkansas. Let’s make it three on Saturday. Lay the points. 

What is most remarkable about Iowa State’s 13-1 SU start is that this team finished 2-22 SU last season, including 0-18 in Big 12 play! Yes, COVID-19 was a major reason for that, but this kind of improvement, in terms of the record, is almost unprecedented. They lost their top five scorers from last season and returned only three rotational players. While the Cyclones lone loss was to #1 Baylor (in a New Year’s showdown of unbeatens), I remain unsold. It was a VERY ugly four-point home win over Texas Tech on Wednesday, 51-47. The last two games have seen the Cyclones shoot just 8 of 39 from three-point range. They were 3 of 19 overall from the field in the 2H vs. TT. The last time ISU won a Big 12 road game was Feb ‘19. It’s a 21-game losing streak since. 

Oklahoma is also a program that’s surprising under a first year head coach. Porter Moser inherited just four scholarship players, but has made it work as the Sooners are 11-3 this year. They are coming off a loss at Baylor, but there’s no shame there as it was on the road. In Norman, the team is 8-1 SU and holding opponents to 56.6 PPG. Wednesday wasn’t even Iowa State’s lowest scoring game this year. They also beat Jackson State with just 47 points. This spread “really tells a story,” and I expect OU, the better team, to win convincingly. 8* Oklahoma 

8* Under Cornell/Princeton (6:00 ET): This is a high total for both teams and really you won’t find many higher across the entire College Basketball card today. The high O/U line isn’t without justification. Princeton has gone Over in each of its last seven lined games, including last night, which was a 84-69 win over Columbia. Cornell is 8-3 to the Over this season, but last night’s game, a 75-69 loss to Penn, did stay Under. I think this number is too high and will play accordingly. 

For those who are unfamiliar, the Ivy League schedule has its members play both Friday and Saturday night, almost every week, during conference play. With conference play just getting underway, this will be the first time this season for both Cornell and Princeton that they are playing without rest. Expect that to have an effect. First and foremost, I do not expect Princeton to continue the kind of torrid shooting we’ve seen from them most of the year. Last night, they “only” shot 46.8% in what was their first game in over two weeks. 

Cornell was much worse, shooting only 33.3% last night. The Big Red have now failed to score 70 points in three of their last four games. Princeton should keep them in check as they are holding visitors to 43% from the field at home this season. But I think the big key is that the Tigers’ offensive numbers have to start curtailing. Prior to last night, they’d shot 51% in six of their previous seven games. I just do not think that’s sustainable. This number, the highest for any Princeton game this season, is dropping quickly. So get your bet in quickly! 8* Under Cornell/Princeton

10* San Diego State (4:00 ET): Colorado State is one of the three unbeatens left in College Basketball. Baylor (#1) and USC (#7) are the others. I think this is it for the Rams, who I successfully faded earlier in the week (as 19-point favorites) against Air Force. While CSU (obviously) won the game straight up, they never came close to covering as the game was actually tied with just over 10 minutes remaining. This despite Air Force being without six players due to COVID, three of them starters and one their leading scorer. It was Colorado State’s first game in over three weeks due to cancellations and postponements as well. 

It’s a much tougher test than Air Force on Saturday as CSU heads west to visit San Diego State, who is a perfect 7-0 SU on its home floor this season. The Aztecs, along with Boise State, figure to be the Rams’ top challengers in the Mountain West this season. The hosts come into Saturday on a four-game win streak, including a 62-55 victory at UNLV last Saturday to open the MWC slate. They held the Runnin’ Rebels to just 29.7% shooting for the game, representing the lowest FG% by any SDSU opponent this season. 

I think the few extra days to prepare (compared to CSU) is a nice edge for San Diego State coming into this important conference clash. The Aztecs’ only losses this year came to BYU, USC and Michigan. They have a 15-game win streak in conference play and remember blowing a 26-point (and losing) to CSU when they hosted them last season. Third-leading scorer Lamont Butler could return from a wrist injury here. This is Colorado State’s first “true” road game of the season and it’s only being played Saturday because both teams had to reschedule this week’s original opponent. Look for the Rams to lose their first game. 10* San Diego State

8* St. John’s (12:00 ET): As I predicted, #16 Providence went down on Tuesday. But the Friars didn’t just go down, they went down HARD. It was their worst game of the season - an 88-56 loss at Marquette - which pretty much backed up my assessment that they are NOT a legit Top 25 team. In case you missed that 10* offering from me (on Marquette), allow me to reiterate that Providence isn’t even a Top 40 team in my own personal power ratings. I’m playing against them on Saturday. 

In fading Providence Tuesday night, I pegged that they were “due” for a poor effort at the defensive end and sure enough, it ended up being their worst defense effort so far this season. Marquette shot 52.5% from the field, which was the first time any opponent shot better than 50% against the Friars. Defending St. John’s won’t be easy either. The Red Storm, led by Julian Champagnie, average 83.2 PPG. That’s the 12th highest figure in the entire country. For the sake of comparison, Providence is averaging only 68.9 PPG, which is 211th in the nation.

Champagnie had a career-high 34 points and 16 rebounds in an 89-84 win over DePaul on Wednesday. His teammate, Dylan Addae-Wusu, also had career-high in that game with 17 points. Posh Alexander, another double-digit scorer, added 16. So the Red Storm have plenty of options to attack this Providence defense. The Friars have massively overachieved thus far (10-5 ATS) and G AJ Reeves is still questionable with a finger injury. This is only the third time St. John’s has been an underdog this season. Take the points, but an outright upset is likely. 8* St. John’s

10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): This is the second game of a home and home between these Northwest Division rivals. Minnesota took Wednesday’s game, at home, by a score of 98-90. Both Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell returned to the lineup, however there was some obvious rust shown from that duo. I understand that the T’wolves have been much better in the select number of times their full starting five has been available (Weds was just the 11th time this year), but I’ve got to fade this team as a road favorite, which they’ve been in only one game prior to tonight all season. 

Oklahoma City is also getting back to full strength as four players made their returns to the lineup on Wednesday. One was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who led the team in scoring with 19 points. The Thunder also have a rookie PG, Josh Giddey, that is averaging 12.4 points, 9.5 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game. Giddey recently became the youngest player in NBA history to record a triple double. He’s only shot 25% from three-point range in the L2 games though, a number I expect to improve tonight. I also think Gilgeous-Alexander is set to score more than he did in Wednesday’s game. 

Oklahoma City, despite its poor overall SU record, is one of the best teams at covering the spread. They are 24-13 ATS, which is second best in the league right now, trailing only surprising Cleveland. The Thunder are 9-2 ATS their L11 games overall and here’s a trend for you: the team is a perfect 9-0 ATS this season if they allowed 100 pts or fewer in their previous game. Again, they allowed only 98 on Wednesday. 10* Oklahoma City

10* Under Spurs/76ers (7:10 ET): Philadelphia, who ended up being the top seed in the Eastern Conference last season, has started to get going of late with five consecutive victories. This win streak has them up to fifth in the Eastern Conference, two games back of 4th place and five games back of the top spot. The Sixers have certainly been scoring more (118.0 PPG) during their win streak, but a curious thing about this team is how much WORSE they’ve been at home (7-8 SU) compared to the road (14-8 SU). The Under is 11-4 in all Sixers’ home games and that’s the trend I’ll follow here. 

San Antonio is a team that I feel is better than its 15-22 SU record. They have a positive point differential on the year, which is something that only five other teams in the Western Conference (the top five) can say right now. But before a 99-97 win in Boston the other night, the Spurs had dropped four straight with three of those defeats coming on the road. Like a lot of teams, the Spurs are short-handed as a number of players remain in health & safety protocol. They did have four starters finish in double figures against Boston, but even so they still couldn’t score 100 points. Four of the last five games have seen them fail to top 105 points. 

When it comes to how the teams should perform at the offensive end tonight, I’m just not expecting big nights from either side. Philadelphia is unlikely to be as prolific here as they were vs. Orlando on Wednesday when they shot above 50% overall and 42% from three-point range. So expect a drop in scoring for them. Same with San Antonio as four starters scoring in double figures again may not be realistic. The Under is 13-6-2 in the Spurs’ previous 21 road games. 10* Under Spurs/76ers

10* Marquette (6:30 ET): The Golden Eagles treated me so nicely in their last game (an 88-56 demolishing of #16 Providence) that I’ll come right back with them again for Friday, this time as an even stronger play. Actually, this play has more to do with what preceded that impressive win over Providence Tuesday night. Marquette had lost four in a row, mostly close games. As I said in the analysis for Providence-Marquette, the Golden Eagles are a team you’ll want to “buy low” on right now as they are better than their overall record.

The opponent here is Georgetown, who has yet to play a conference game. The Hoyas last took the court on 12/18, so it’s basically been three weeks off for them due to COVID. "We've been shut down because we had a lot of guys with COVID," coach Patrick Ewing said. "There wasn't too much we could do.” Wednesday was the team’s first full practice in more than two weeks. The Hoyas’ record this season is 6-5 SU and they did lose their last game, 80-73 here at home to TCU. 

While it is highly unlikely that Marquette will be able to match its performance from Tuesday, they won’t have to, as all we are basically in need of is a straight up victory tonight. I like the Golden Eagles’ chances as they’ll have revenge on the mind from LY’s Big East Tournament. G’town has shot relatively well from three-point range this year, but so had Providence and Marquette held them to 26.3% from behind the arc. The “renaissance” continues here for Shaka Smart’s team. 10* Marquette

10* Golden State (8:05 ET): Even though Steph Curry is unlikely to play Thursday, I’m still going to back the Warriors in this game. Beating New Orleans is something they can still do, even without their superstar. The team shot a season-worst 5 of 28 from three-point range last night in Dallas, where they lost 99-82. There will be a natural progression to the mean in that category, even if Curry is unavailable. 

New Orleans is in the midst of a brutal stretch of games as they’ve previously faced the Bucks, Jazz and Suns. They lost to all three and surrendered an average of 124.7 PPG in doing so. It would be an obvious break, facing the Warriors w/o Curry, but it’s something I don’t think the Pelicans will be able to take advantage of. This is just a bad team. The Pelicans are 13-25 and second to last in the West. 

With Curry suffering the injury last night and Klay Thompson not yet back, where will the scoring come from for Golden State? How about Andrew Wiggins, who had a team-high 17 points last night. I’m also looking for a bounce back here from Draymond Green, who only had TWO points against Dallas. The Warriors beat the Pelicans by 41 earlier this year and can still win here, even without Curry. New Orleans’ leading scorer Brandon Ingram has been struggling of late. 10* Golden State

8* Tarleton State (8:00 ET): Tarleton State is off an embarrassing 22-point loss to Utah Valley on New Year’s Day, but prior to that, the Texans had been playing rather well. They’d won five of six overall as well as covered six of their last eight lined games. Defensively, the last game was their worst effort since an early season meeting with Kansas. It should be noted that the loss to Utah Valley came on the road. For the season, Tarleton State only allows 56.3 PPG at home. So I look for them to bounce back. 

Sam Houston State arrives on a three-game win streak, but the road has been a challenge for the Bearkats this season. In “true” road games, they are 0-5 SU and all five losses have been by nine points or more. SHSU hasn’t played a road game since 12/14 when they lost at North Texas. Three of the five road losses have seen them fail to score 60 points. The most points scored in any road game is 66. 

So it shouldn’t take a big scoring effort for Tarleton State to win this one. Their scoring average at home is 70.5 PPG, which is way up from what they average on the road. After shooting a dreadful 29% from the floor against Utah Valley, the Texans should see dramatic improvement at the offensive end tonight. They shot 58% in their most recent home game, which was a 22-point win over Air Force. Not only had Tarleton State won three in a row prior to the loss on 1/1, all three wins were by double digits. 8* Tarleton State

8* Under Celtics/Knicks (7:35 ET): Neither of these teams can be happy with their current record. Both are 18-20 SU, which is tied for 10th place in the Eastern Conference. Of the two, I’d say the Celtics are more likely to move up, but that’s no guarantee. Boston lost last night, 99-97 to San Antonio, thus ending a two-game win streak. The game came down to the final play, which was a missed layup by Jaylen Brown after a steal. The Celtics are 6-2 Under this season when coming off a SU loss as a favorite. 

The Knicks are coming off a win Tuesday night as they beat the Pacers 104-94. Over the last five games, the team has averaged only 95.8 PPG. On the bright side, they’ve only allowed 96.4. There had been three consecutive games where neither the Knicks nor their opponent scored 100 points. That was before a 120-105 loss to Toronto on Sunday. Tuesday saw Julius Randle return to the lineup after missing several games due to COVID and he scored 30 points. RJ Barrett went for 32, but the rest of the team combined for only 42 points.

This will be the third meeting of the season between these teams. The first two both went Over, but one was a double overtime game. Neither team shoots all that well with Boston at 43.9% on the road and New York at 43.6% overall for the year. I don’t think NY can count on Randle and Barrett both going for 30+ again while Boston’s Jayson Tatum admitted to still being “rusty” after catching COVID for a second time. The Knicks are 5-1 Under their L6 games while the Celtics are 6-2 Under in their L8. Look for those trends to continue here. 8* Under Celtics/Knicks

8* Under Raptors/Bucks (8:05 ET): So this is obviously a case of “bucking” the recent trend that has seen Toronto go Over in each of its last eight games. That’s a pretty long streak and during that time the team has exceeded its season average in points scored (107.6 per game) seven times. The Raptors are off B2B 120+ point efforts in beating the Knicks and Spurs, but I think they’ll find it much harder to score tonight when they face a Milwaukee team that is allowing just 42.5% shooting here at home. 

Now the Bucks have also been doing a lot of scoring themselves recently. They scored 136 pts in B2B games last week. But that was followed with a shocking loss to the Pistons last time out, 115-106, as a 16-point home favorite. The Bucks’ recent schedule has been incredibly “soft” with two games against the Magic, one against the Pelicans and then the Pistons. Lack of defense has been a bit troubling for the defending NBA Champs recently. They’ve allowed 110+ points in five straight games. I say that streak ends tonight. 

Toronto’s scoring is clearly due to subside while Milwaukee’s defense is set to improve. But what kind of defensive effort should we expect from the Raptors tonight? Well, over the last three games, they’ve held opponents to an average of just 105.7 PPG. The Bucks are coming off their second worst three-point shooting performance of the season. They made only 11 of 46 attempts from beyond the arc against the Pistons. Also note that when these teams faced off in Toronto last month, the final score was 97-93 (Raptors won). 8* Under Raptors/Bucks

10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): The Nets have shockingly lost all three games since Kevin Durant’s return to the lineup. Those losses, all of which saw the Nets favored, were to Philadelphia, the Clippers and Memphis. The first two saw them blow fourth quarter leads while Monday was just a case of being outplayed by the Grizzlies. Durant and James Harden combined to shoot just 13 of 38 from the field, including 4 for 15 from three-point range. Overall, it was just a bad shooting night for Brooklyn as they were 9 of 31 from behind the arc and 12 of 21 at the free throw line. 

Fortunately, tonight the Nets are facing an Indiana team that is both short-handed and struggling. Without leading scorer Malcolm Brogden, the Pacers have dropped five in a row and are now 10 games below .500. They probably deserve a better fate as they’ve lost 9 of 10 games that were decided by three points or less. But this is NOT the matchup for the Pacers to “get right” as Brooklyn will certainly be motivated to end its own losing skid and the last five head to head meetings have all gone to the Nets, three of those being decided by double digits. 

There’s a curious thing going on with Brooklyn as they are just 10-9 SU at home, but 13-3 SU on the road. They did beat the Pacers at home earlier this season, 105-98. The Nets have cleaned up against sub-.500 opposition, going 13-2 SU. Oh, by the way, Kyrie Irving is expected to make his season debut tonight. That comes at a time when Indiana has eight players still in health and safety protocols. Lay the points. 10* Brooklyn

8* Under Nebraska/Michigan State (7:00 ET): Nebraska is obviously one of the weaker teams in the Big 10, but they did just take Ohio State to overtime on Sunday. Unfortunately for the Cornhuskers, they lost that game 87-79 and now must turn around to head to East Lansing and face top 10 Michigan State. The Spartans are off to a 3-0 start in conference play after defeating Northwestern 73-67 on the road Sunday. That was their fifth straight game to go Over, but this O/U line is very high and I’m going Under. 

In fact, it’s looking like this could close as the highest O/U line in any game for Sparty this season. The previous high was 149 against Toledo and that pushed with MSU winning 81-68. What’s remarkable about the last game going Over the total is Sparty shot just 38.5% from the field while holding N’western to 32.3%. Tonight’s game may not feature such poor shooting, but the O/U line being so high means that’s okay. Only two MSU games this season have seen more than 150 total points scored: the opener vs Kansas (161) and a game with Oakland (168). 

It is incredibly unlikely that Nebraska will win this game. They are 1-24 SU their L25 road games and are just 6-45 SU their L51 games as an underdog. They’ve lost 70 of the last 73 times they’ve been a road dog of at least 12.5 points including 0 for the last 15. Because the Cornhuskers are shooting just 27.9% from three-point range, Michigan State should easily keep them in check. Assuming this one isn’t close at the end, there won’t be much fouling and the home team can just shorten the game with long possessions. Note that Nebraska’s game with Ohio State was tied at 72 at the end of regulation. 8* Under Nebraska/Michigan State

10* Dayton (7:00 ET): So the A-10 seems to be a bit “down” this year. There’s no team worthy of the Top 25 nor is there a clear-cut favorite to win the league. Here we have two of the stalwarts, VCU and Dayton, ready to open their conference schedule. VCU has won four in a row to get to 7-4 SU on the season. While two of the Rams’ losses are to Baylor and UConn, the others were to Wagner and Chattanooga. They should be respected for their defense (3rd in efficiency), but VCU’s problem is that it can’t score consistently (just 60.5 PPG). I think that costs them here on the road. 

Dayton has only managed a 2-2 split in its last four games, however both losses (SMU, Ole Miss) did come on the road. The Flyers come in at 8-5 SU on the year. Their most impressive win of the season obviously was the one against Kansas, which took place the day after Thanksgiving, on a neutral floor. Since then, the Flyers have been a bit inconsistent, although they’ve won all four home games, one of them against Virginia Tech as a 2.5-point dog. 

VCU is 4-0 ATS as an underdog so far this season, but this is a short number and Dayton is playing with big-time revenge after losing all three head to head matchups last season. The Flyers can also defend (just 61.2 PPG allowed at home) and they are more consistent than VCU at the offensive end. They’re shooting 48% on the season and averaging 70.4 PPG. Tonight is also VCU’s first game in three weeks, so they are likely to come out quite rusty. 10* Dayton

8* Air Force (9:00 ET): There are still three undefeated teams in College Basketball. One is #1 Baylor. The second is #7 USC, who I’d say is slightly overrated (but still a Top 20 team). The third is Colorado State. Because they are 10-0, the Rams are obviously ranked. But my power ratings consider them to be just barely one of the top 35 teams in America. While it’s unlikely that CSU’s first loss comes tonight, I do think that this is a lot of points to lay in what will be their first time taking the court in over three weeks. 

Air Force is 8-4 SU. They just pulled a massive upset in their game, beating Utah State 49-47 as 13-point dogs. That was actually the fourth straight game where the Flyboys did not score 50 points. The previous three were all double digit losses on the road. Let the record show that Utah State is one of the better Mountain West teams, so the AFA isn’t going to be intimidated heading into Fort Collins tonight. If anything, they should be supremely motivated facing an undefeated (and ranked) opponent. 

COVID is obviously the reason for Colorado State’s long layoff. They had three postponements in December and don’t be surprised if the conference’s best shooting team comes out a little “cold” tonight. Air Force has held six different opponents below 40% shooting this season, including Utah State last week. That the Falcons were able to win that game, while shooting just 1 of 19 from three-point range, was pretty remarkable. They’ll shoot better from deep tonight and because they play at such a slow tempo, should easily stay within the number. They’ve had fewer cancellations, thus will be in better “game shape.” 8* Air Force

10* Marquette (9:00 ET): Providence comes into this game ranked #16 in the country. But despite the Friars being on an eight-game win streak, my own personal power ratings are unimpressed, saying that not only does this team NOT deserve to be in the Top 25, but they are not even a Top 40 team in the country right now! The defensive numbers have been solid, but let’s see how the Friars perform here when they are playing a second straight “true” road game, a first for them this season. 

Marquette is going to be desperate here as they have not won a home game since 11/30. Coming off a double overtime loss to Creighton on New Year’s Day, a game where they were down by as many as 17, Shaka Smart’s team is certainly due to turn things around. The Golden Eagles have now dropped their last three at home, shooting less than 40 percent in those losses. Again, you’ve got to figure that number will improve here, even if they are facing a team that has posted a very strong defensive FG% on the year. 

One thing I do not see happening for Providence tonight is them shooting 8 of 15 (53.3%) from three-point range again, like they did in Saturday’s win at DePaul. Incredibly, the Friars have held their three previous Big East opponents to 33.3% shooting, which is astronomically low. You almost have to figure that number is going to go up and with Marquette’s own shooting due to IMPROVE, tonight seems like a “perfect storm” of sorts for the home team to pull an “upset.” Providence is only averaging 61.4 PPG on 38.9% shooting away from home. 10* Marquette

8* Michigan (7:05 ET): So both these teams are 7-5 straight up. That’s definitely surprising on the Michigan side as the Wolverines were once ranked as high as #4 in the country in the early part of the season. Juwan Howard’s team comes into Tuesday’s game off a pretty shocking 85-71 loss at UCF, a game they led at the half. But the Maize and Blue simply could not get stops in the second half of that game as their opponents shot a preposterous 72 percent, including 8 for 8 from three-point range. 

It’s highly unlikely that Rutgers - or any future Michigan opponent for that matter - is going to shoot the ball that well again this season. The Scarlet Knights do have an impressive win on their resume, beating then #1 Purdue at the buzzer back on December 9th. They’ve subsequently wrapped up non-conference play with easy wins over Maine and Central Conn State. While the Scarlet Knights are 7-1 at home so far (0-4 on the road), this is going to be a tough game for them. They have never beaten Michigan since joining the Big 10. 

I believe the Wolverines are set to turn things around now that conference play is in full effect. My power ratings still consider them to be among the Top 25 teams in the nation, despite their disappointing record. Note that they’ve won by double digits off each of their previous four losses. Rutgers isn’t even the top 100 in my power ratings and they have a lower efficiency rating both offensively and defensively compared to Michigan. Lay the points. 8* Michigan

8* Under Maryland/Iowa (9:00 ET): It’s tough competition in the Big 10 this year as you’ve got seven teams from this conference currently ranked in my Top 30. I think we can all agree who the best team is (Purdue), but after that you’ve got six teams pretty closely congested. Iowa is among that group and the Hawkeyes will take a three-game win streak into tonight’s clash with Maryland. The Hawkeyes, who do have one of the most efficient offenses in the country, topped 90 points in all three of their recent wins. But those were also all non-conference games. Maryland should prove to be a lot stingier. 

The Terrapins were a team that opened the year ranked in the Top 25, but I was not a real believer in what was going on in College Park. I played against them in an outright loss to George Mason and since that time the Terps are 5-3 including a 67-61 loss to Northwestern in their only conference outing thus far. This team struggles to shoot the three (30.2% for the year). Friday’s win over Brown (81-67) was their highest scoring game in awhile, but still wouldn’t have gone Over this total, nor would have any game but one since the season opener. 

Iowa’s two previous conference games were rough as they lost both of them. Now they played Purdue and Illinois, who I think are the top two teams in the league. There was also a dreadful 53-point effort in a blowout loss to Iowa State. The Hawkeyes have followed those three straight losses with the three-game win streak I mentioned earlier, but scoring against Maryland will be a lot tougher than it was against the likes of SE Louisiana and W Illinois. The Terps are holding teams below 40% shooting for the year. Good for Iowa then that they allow only 40.2% shooting at home. 8* Under Maryland/Iowa

10* Under Hornets/Wizards (7:05 ET): These are two teams I could see sliding down the standings before we hit the All-Star Break. Washington had been 6-0 in games decided by three points or less this season. That was before losing at the buzzer against Chicago on Saturday, 120-119. The kind of luck the Wizards were having in close games is something that is certainly hard to sustain over the course of the season. This team actually has the third worst point differential in the entire Eastern Conference entering Monday. 

Charlotte just got blasted at home last night, 133-99 by Phoenix. That ended a three-game SU win streak and four-game ATS win streak. But it did make it five straight Unders for the Hornets. Because they allow the most points per game in the entire NBA, Hornets’ totals are consistently among the highest in the league. I think this affords us a nice opportunity to start taking some Unders as scoring is down league-wide this season and the trend figures to hit Charlotte sooner than later. 

The Hornets only shot 25% from three-point range last night. Any gains in that area tonight will be nullified by certainly allowing fewer points to the Wizards than what they gave up against the Suns. Washington was without seven players for its last game, so I was surprised to see them score so many points. They play at one of the slowest paces in the league. Charlotte is only averaging 104.9 points in division games this season and the Under is a perfect 5-0 in the L5 meetings between these teams (2-0 this season). 10* Under Hornets/Wizards

10* Under T’Wolves/Lakers (9:35 ET): The Lakers finally played a good game the other night, beating the Blazers 139-106. I don’t think they’ll shoot 55.3% from the floor again though, or even close to that tonight against the T’wolves. LeBron James had a season-high 43 points in that win on New Year’s Eve. It should be noted that three days earlier the team shot better than 50% and topped 130 points in a win over the Rockets. The next game they scored 99 in a loss to the Grizzlies. 

So we’ve got one team (the Lakers) with a virtual guaranteed drop in offensive production from its last game. Then you’ve got Minnesota, who is having COVID issues. Their best player, Karl-Anthony Towns, is among those that are currently out of the lineup. The T’wolves have lost four of five since the COVID issues reared their ugly head and in the last two games they have averaged only 99 points. Since the start of December, there has been only one game where Minnesota shot better than 47% from the floor. That’s remarkable. 

There have been two previous meetings between these teams this season. Both went Under. Surprisingly, Minnesota was the winner each time, holding the Lakers to 92 and 83 points. The T’wolves have gone Under in 10 of their 13 games this season against teams that have losing records. The Lakers are 18-19 on the year. This seems like a high total, especially with the Lakers 12-2 Under following a SU win by 10 or more points. 10* Under T’wolves/Lakers

10* Drake (8:00 ET): Both Drake and Missouri State are off to winning starts this season. Drake is 10-4 while Missouri State is 9-5. But Drake is 1-0 in conference play, having picked up a win over Valparaiso back on December 2nd, while Missouri State lost its only Missouri Valley game, as a 6.5-point favorite at Illinois State on December 1st. Now, after both teams won big against non-DI teams earlier in the week, it’s a permanent return to conference play. I like the road team to at least cover here.

Drake has struggled to cover games this season (just 3-9 ATS overall), especially on the road (0-5 ATS), but they have been an underdog to just two teams this season: Alabama and Clemson. Despite the ATS struggles, the Bulldogs are on a four-game SU win streak. The last five seasons have seen them really own Missouri State with an 8-2 SU head to head edge, including a 3-0 season sweep in 2020-21. 

Missouri State has a shorter turnaround between games as they last played on Thursday while Drake’s last game was on Tuesday. While the Bears “couldn’t miss” in their last game, consider the opposition and they are also 0-4 ATS the last four times they’ve been off a game where they scored 90 or more points. That includes two straight up losses this season. Drake is 7-3 ATS following a win by 20 or more points and I think they are a lot better than their ATS record. Grab the points. 10* Drake

10* Dixie State (9:00 ET): Abilene Christian won its final 10 games of 2021. They covered the spread in all seven that were lined. But it was a close call 48 hours ago when they won at Utah Valley State, 80-76 as 1.5-point favorites, in the WAC opener. Tonight marks the first time since opening the season with three straight road games that the Wildcats are playing consecutive games away from home. Given how many points they are laying here, I think it’s an appropriate time to fade.

Dixie State will be looking to rebound from consecutive losses tonight. The Trail Blazers had previously won six in a row before this losing skid. After getting blown out at Southern Utah on 12/22, Dixie State suffered just its second home loss of the year on 12/30, 83-69 to Tarleton State. They were three-point dogs for that game. The fact Tarleton State shot 50% for the game from three-point range did not help. Also, Dixie State attempted only 11 free throws compared to 22 for TSU. 

Dixie State had been 6-1 SU at home, prior to losing Thursday. They average 89.1 PPG for the year here. I see them putting enough points on the board tonight to easily cover this number. Abilene Christian’s success at the betting window has had an obvious influence on this line for tonight and it’s too high. It was shocking that they were able to win their last games, despite allowing 58% shooting. The favorite is due for an “off night” while the home team is going to be desperate to avoid a third straight loss. Take the points. 10* Dixie State

10* Brooklyn (7:30 ET): The Clippers have the unenviable task of playing on both New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. After losing last night in Toronto, 116-108 as a seven-point dog, it’s a brutal spot here having to go to Brooklyn. The Nets will take no mercy on their unrested visitors; they are looking to bounce back from a surprising loss on Thursday, 110-102 to Philadelphia where they were five-point home favorites. It’s a big number, but you’ll want to lay the points in this matchup. 

Now, if you recall, I faded the Nets in that outright loss to the 76ers. I did so, despite Kevin Durant being back for Brooklyn. Durant actually played better than I expected, scoring 33 points in his first game in two weeks. James Harden also had 33 points. But the Nets had no answers defensively for Joel Embiid and also struggled from three-point range where they were just 7 of 27. That three-point shooting will improve tonight and a second game with Durant back in the lineup should see the Nets looking like a well-oiled machine. 

Now the Clippers are not just in the second night of a back to back, they are also extremely short-handed as Paul George is out indefinitely with an elbow injury. LA is just 2-6 SU its last eight games and this will be the second time in less than a week that they’ve got to face the Nets w/o rest. Last week, at home, they lost to them 124-108 and the Nets didn’t even have Durant for that game. The Clippers are now 0-4 SU and ATS the last four meetings with Brooklyn and this could be the ugliest result yet. 10* Brooklyn

8* Marquette (12:00 ET): Creighton is obviously the hotter team heading into this Saturday Big East matchup, but I think it’s a great spot to jump on Marquette. 

The Golden Eagles (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS) have lost their last three games and four of the last five. The lone win in that stretch was by a single point, 64-63, over Kansas State. Furthermore, Marquette has not won at home since November 30th. After a 5-0 start to the season at home, they lost two games here last month, both to strong teams - UCLA and UConn. The most recent loss was 78-71 to UConn on Dec 21 and the Eagles were without Darryl Morsell, their second leading scorer. Morsell is expected to be back in the lineup this afternoon. Regardless, I like the home team as essentially a “pick ‘em” in this matchup. Not only is Marquette desperate for a win, but Creighton is in a major “letdown spot.” 

Creighton is coming off a shocking performance, a 79-59 upset of Villanova where they were seven-point home underdogs. While the upset took place all the way back on December 17th, it will certainly be a near impossibility for the Blue Jays to match their performance and intensity from that day. Following a 7-1 start, Creighton alternated wins and losses in a 2-2 December. They’ve also played only one “true” road game all season. Marquette beat a very good Illinois team here earlier this year, so they are more than capable of winning this game. We’re getting a really solid value on the home side here. 8* Marquette

8* Portland (10:35 ET): The Lakers stink. They have just one win in the past seven games and that came against lowly Houston. While LeBron James is doing his part, including 37 points and 13 rebounds on Wednesday, it hasn’t nearly been enough for an old team that is really short-handed. The Lakers are without several players due to health and safety, plus Anthony Davis is out with a sprained MCL. There have been 20 different starting lineups for the Lakers this season and the bench contributed just 18 points in the 104-99 loss at Memphis two nights ago. 

Things aren’t exactly going great for Portland either. The Blazers are 2-10 their last 12 games and off three consecutive double digit defeats. They are dealing with even more absences on the health and safety front and CJ McCollum has missed the L3+ weeks due to a collapsed lung. The Blazers have really struggled on the road thus far (2-12 SU, 3-11 ATS) and are just 2-11 ATS as underdogs this season. But I believe tonight is a situation where you’ll want to take the points. 

The Lakers are 9-17 ATS as favorites with 12 outright losses. They are also just 6-14 ATS at home. Much like how the Lakers are leaning on LeBron, the Blazers still have Damian Lillard, who had 32 points on Wednesday. So did Norman Powell. But it wasn’t enough against a top tier team like the Jazz. But it’s not the Jazz that Portland is facing here tonight; it’s an old Lakers team that I can see being “disinterested” playing on New Year’s Eve. Portland beat the Lakers earlier this season by 15 points. 8* Portland

10* Under Clippers/Raptors (7:30 ET): While overall shooting may not be as woeful here as it was in the Clippers’ last game, I’m not exactly anticipating a lot of offensive firepower when LA heads “north of the border” to face Toronto on New Year’s Eve. The Clippers won 91-82 on Wednesday, mostly thanks to Boston going an unthinkable 4 of 42 from three-point range. They won’t be that “lucky” at the defensive end tonight, but playing short-handed (no George or Leonard), the Clips aren’t likely to do much scoring themselves here. 

Toronto is getting healthier as the number of players on the COVID-19 list has dropped from ten to two. But they are off two straight losses, one a complete embarrassment (144-109 to the Cavs) when the Raptors were extremely short-handed and then 114-109 to the 76ers on Tuesday. They shot 42.7% from the field in those two losses, which isn’t all that atypical. For the season, the Raptors have a 43.9 FG% and they are bottom five in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. 

Still, the Raptors’ last five games have all found a way to go Over the total. I look for that streak to end tonight. The Clippers are on a 5-1 run to the Under, so things have been going quite differently for them. LA has averaged only 99.2 PPG on 42.9% shooting its last five games and they are actually bottom five in the league in offensive efficiency. With the Clippers missing their leading scorer and Toronto having so many players working their way back into the lineup, expect a low-scoring game. 10* Under Clippers/Raptors

10* William & Mary (2:00 ET): William & Mary is one of four College Basketball programs that’s been eligible for every NCAA Tournament and never gotten in. That’s pretty embarrassing. But I’m not sure it’s more embarrassing than how the Tribe started their 2021-22 season. Not only did they lose their first 12 games, they were also 0-12 ATS. But W&M finally picked up a win on Wednesday, stunning Hofstra 63-62 as 17.5-point home underdogs. I think they’re in line to cover another game here on New Year’s Eve. 

Northeastern enters this game off back to back losses. Those two defeats were sandwiched around a pair of cancellations as the Huskies fell 79-69 to Davidson and 79-62 at Elon. The loss to Elon was particularly embarrassing as N’eastern came into that game favored by three points. They are now 0-4 SU in “true” road games this season with three of the four losses coming by 17 points or more. Williamsburg is not a place where the Huskies have performed well in the past; they’ve lost 10 of their last 13 trips here.

I know that William & Mary has endured a brutal start to the season, but given how untrustworthy Northeastern has been away from home thus far, you’ve got to take the points in this one. William & Mary’s ATS record is so poor that you have to think a turnaround is coming at the betting window. It’s the law of averages. The win on Wednesday, where the Tribe held Hofstra to 30.2% shooting, should inspire some much-needed confidence. Northeastern has only three wins by more than six points, so this game should come down to the wire. Take the points. 10* William & Mary

10* Oregon State (9:00 ET): This line will most definitely be viewed as “curious” by most as you’ve got a 2-10 Oregon State team as a short home dog, facing Utah. The Beavers’ only two wins came in their first - and most recent - games. The most recent win was nine days ago against Nicholls State, 83-61 as a nine-point favorite. I think it would be rather foolish to write this team off as it was only nine months ago that OSU made its incredible run to the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. They’ve also beaten Utah four straight times. 

Utah concluded the non-conference portion of its schedule with a 55-50 win over Fresno State nine days ago. The Utes are now 8-4 straight up, but only 4-7-1 ATS. They’ve played just two “true” road games so far and lost them both, 93-73 at USC and 83-75 at Missouri. While Oregon State may not be as formidable as either of those two teams, it is notable that Utah has suffered three double digits on the season. In the two previous conference games, the Utes shot just 38.0% from the field. They’ve been short-handed of late, though leading scorer Branden Carlson could return here. 

Oregon State has three losses by three points or less this season, so factor that in when looking at their overall record. The Beavers should be “pumped up” for this game in Corvallis as conference play certainly affords them a “fresh start” to the season. Utah is only 6-18 ATS its L24 games away from home and they’ve lost by an average of 18.5 PPG their previous two trips here. The Utes are 4-10 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 60 points or less the previous game, including 1-3 ATS this season alone. 10* Oregon State

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Both the 76ers and Nets are getting closer to full strength and it’s showing in the results. Brooklyn, thanks to James Harden, just went out to Los Angeles and beat both Lakers and Clippers in somewhat convincing fashion. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is looking to make it a perfect 3-0 road trip tonight after wins in Washington and Toronto following a Christmas break. The Sixers have won three of their last four overall, the only loss coming by two points. I know there’s a chance Kevin Durant may return tonight for the Nets, but it’s no guarantee that he will play well after a two-week absence.

Brooklyn has not performed well this season when off a double-digit win. They are just 1-7 ATS in that situation, which presents itself again tonight as the Nets beat the Clippers 124-108 on Monday. Harden scored 39 points and the team shot 56.8% in that game. Even if Durant returns, there’s just no way they are going to match that kind of shooting tonight. Philly has done a good job defensively of late, holding two of its last three opponents below 100 points. Doing that again tonight might be asking a bit much, but it’s worth pointing out that the Nets “only” average 108.0 PPG at home. 

The 76ers, who are just 18-16 on the year and tied for 6th in the Eastern Conference, need this game more than the Nets. It’s also a double revenge game as they are 0-2 vs. Brooklyn this season. The first game saw them blow a halftime lead while the second saw them nearly rally back from a 20-point deficit, despite poor shooting (29.4% from three-point range). The 76ers were up by as many as 17 on Tuesday vs. Toronto as Joel Embiid turned in his sixth consecutive 30+ point game. This is an entirely different team when Embiid is in the lineup and they have actually been better on the road (than at home) this season. Take the points. 10* Philadelphia

10* Indiana (7:05 ET): The Pacers, statistically, have been better than the Hornets this season on a possession by possession basis. They’ve got a slightly higher net efficiency rating as well as a superior point differential. But Charlotte has the better overall record, 18-17 SU compared to 14-20 SU. How can that be? Well, Indiana has had the worst “luck” in the league in close games this season, going 1-8 SU when the final margin is three points or less. I think that tonight, it’s time for the Pacers to get a “little lucky.”

The Pacers have a much better record at home (11-7 SU) than on the road (3-13). Fortunately for them, tonight’s game is at home. While the last two home wins came against lightweights Houston and Detroit, Indiana has won five of six overall here at Bankers Life Fieldhouse with the one loss coming by two points to Golden State. Indiana’s disparity in win percentage at home vs. the road is the largest in the league. They were a bit short-handed (no Malcolm Brogden) for Sunday’s loss at Chicago, but I think the home court edge is the key here, even if Brogden (listed as questionable for tonight) cannot return. 

While Indiana is clearly a better team at home, Charlotte is just 9-13 SU on the road. The Hornets are dead last in the league in points allowed (116.3 per game), giving up 5.5 more per game than every other team in the Eastern Conference. They had a brief stop back home on Monday - when they blew out Houston 123-99. But before that, they’d gone 1-5 SU on a six-game West Coast swing. I think the Pacers’ home court edge and the Hornets’ leaky defense prove to be the difference makers in this one. 10* Indiana

10* Seton Hall (7:00 ET): I think that it’s fair to say I was “ahead of the curve” on Seton Hall, whom I took early in the season in an upset win over Michigan. In my analysis for that play, I called the Pirates “one of the better teams in the country.” They’ve spent the bulk of the season ranked in the Top 25, though like a lot of squads, it’s been awhile since they took the court. Three straight cancellations, including their first two scheduled Big East games, have resulted in a 17-day gap between games for Seton Hall. 

Providence is a team I’m less sold on right now. Though also ranked in the Top 25, the Friars rate a lot lower than Seton Hall in my own personal power rankings. I do not even consider them to be a Top 45 team, let alone Top 25. But the Friars are 11-1, their only loss coming by 18 to Virginia back on Nov 23. They have gotten a Big East game in, a 57-53 win at UConn where the Friars were 7.5 point dogs and held their opponents to 31.1% shooting. What I would consider to be a second straight upset is unlikely, however. 

Seton Hall (9-1) is just plain better, in my eyes. Their only loss was by three points, on a neutral floor, to Ohio State back in November. In addition to the win over Michigan, the Pirates have beaten Texas. Providence’s best win - by far - was the one over UConn on Dec 18th. Obviously, both teams have had extended time off here, but I am simply going to trust my power rankings, which say Seton Hall is decidedly the better team here. 10* Seton Hall

10* Denver (10:05 ET): Golden State got a huge win on Christmas, beating Phoenix 116-107 as 5.5-point dogs. But now they are set to be even more short-handed with Draymond Green joining four other teammates on the COVID-19 list. Tonight’s game, the front end of a home and home with the Nuggets, isn’t nearly as important to Golden State as the X-Mas Day game was. So I don’t like the idea of them laying this many points to a Denver team looking to solidify its own spot in the Western Conference pecking order. 

The Nuggets picked up a win on Sunday, beating the Clippers 103-100. But they were four-point favorites, so they failed to cover. It was the fourth straight time Denver failed to cover as chalk. They’d lost the previous three outright. But the last time they were a dog saw them turn in an outstanding effort, winning in Atlanta 133-115. Right now, reigning league MVP Nikola Jokic seems to be a man on a mission with back to back 20+ point & 20+ rebound games. It’s 55 points and 43 rebounds for him over the last two games. 

Obviously, Golden State should still be respected as they have the best record in the league. But this is basically going to be the “Steph Curry show” tonight due to all the absences. Green’s absence is the biggest of the five and will be felt. Curry had 33 points on Christmas, but even if he were to match that number here, I don’t see it being enough for the Warriors to cover the spread. The last time the Dubs were off a win over Phoenix, they lost the next game outright. 10* Denver

8* Memphis (9:05 ET): The 116-107 loss that Phoenix suffered on X-Mas Day was only their third defeat in the last 28 games. It also snapped a 15-game win streak here at home. There is no denying the pecking order in the Western Conference has a clear top three teams and the Suns are among the three. But of the three teams, I actually believe Phoenix is the “worst.” Their point differential and efficiency rating lags behind those of the Warriors and Jazz. What I’m saying is that I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team that’s been red hot, slip up a little bit in the coming weeks. 

Memphis is currently fourth in the West. While there’s a four-game gap between them and the top three, the Grizzlies are coming off a 127-102 win in Sacramento last night. That ended a three-game losing streak. They come into tonight as decided underdogs, but that’s okay considering their 11-5 ATS mark in that role this season. Six of the last seven times the Grizz have been getting points, they have covered the number. They are also 7-1 ATS L8 road games. 

This number is jacked up due to Memphis coming in without rest. I get their rotation is shortened because of COVID, but the same can be said for Phoenix. Losing to Golden State on X-Mas may result in a bit of a “hangover” here for the Suns, while the Grizzlies are definitely looking to avenge a 25-point loss they suffered at home last month. That previous meeting saw Phoenix lead wire to wire as Memphis shot poorly. Look for better shooting from a motivated dog tonight. Take the points. 8* Memphis