10* New Orleans (10:05 ET): Second meeting in the last three days for these teams. The Jazz took the first, 118-102 here at home on Wednesday night, as they shot well from three-point range (21 of 47) while the Pelicans did not (6 of 26). That 45-point difference from behind the arc more than accounted for the final score. Utah has looked quite good of late as they are on a six-game SU and ATS win streak, but you should not count out New Orleans in this spot as they are desperate for a win and getting a decent amount of points. 

With just one victory in their last seven games, New Orleans really needs to “get going.” That one victory came against defensively inept Sacramento on Sunday and other than that, the offense really hasn’t “been there” for Zion Williamson and company. The Jazz have been outstanding defensively during the win streak, but again that can change in an instant and I certainly don’t see the home team being as prolific offensively as they were Wednesday, especially from “downtown.” 

Williamson is coming off B2B 30+ point games for the first time in his career. Wednesday night’s contest was largely decided in the third quarter where the Jazz outscored the Pelicans by 16 points, which was the exact final margin for the game. I’m impressed with Utah’s fondness for the 3-point shot, but that can also lead to an “off-night,” which you have to think is coming. The team’s hot start really shouldn’t be that big of a surprise when you consider they’ve gone off as the favorite in 12 of 14 games. Take the points in this one. 10* New Orleans

10* Eastern Illinois (8:00 ET): Belmont has ruled the Ohio Valley Conference this season with a perfect 8-0 SU record and their only loss of 2020-21 came all the way back on December 5th to Samford. But it is worth noting that one loss did come here at home, a game where the Bruins were 17.5-point favorites. You have to think eventually this team is going to drop an OVC game and while it may not be tonight, the number the Bruins are laying seems quite large against an Eastern Illinois team that’s better than its record. 

Hopefully, Eastern Illinois gets its leading scorer (Josiah Wallace) back from a hamstring injury for tonight’s game. Wallace is second in the OVC in scoring (17.5 PPG) and the team has gone winless since he got hurt. The injury occurred 1/9 vs. Austin Peay, a game which the Panthers ended up losing at the buzzer, 74-71. After shockingly falling at home to Morehead State as seven-point favorites (87-61!), Tony Romo’s alma mater suffered another crushing defeat on Saturday as they fell in OT to Eastern Kentucky.

After three straight losses at home, it’s fair to say Eastern Illinois has underachieved. While the Wallace injury has a lot to do with that, this is a team that has plenty of senior talent and should be better than 3-10 ATS. I look for them to come out fired up here against a team they haven’t beaten since 2015. Belmont just gave up 91 points (no overtime) to Jacksonville State in its last game. Were Wallace to play, that would be a HUGE plus, but I’m taking the points regardless here as EIU should keep it close throughout. 10* Eastern Illinois

8* Memphis (7:00 ET): Memphis played at Tulsa on Sunday and I felt that line was way off. Turns out that I was incorrect in that assessment as the Tigers (who closed -1.5) lost by a single point, 57-56, to fall to 1-9 ATS on the season and 6-5 straight up. It’s certainly been an underwhelming season thus far for Anfernee Hardaway’s team and they’ve had three games postponed since December 30th, meaning the loss to Tulsa is the only time they’ve played this month. But there’s still time to “turn things around” and I believe it happens tonight at home vs. Wichita State. 

Wichita State’s recent form is a lot better than Memphis’ as the Shockers have won seven of eight and covered the last four. They’d had no issues with cancellations until Sunday when they were supposed to travel to SMU. I wonder if that breaks the “momentum.” Yes, I’m fully aware that in their last game the “Wheat Shockers” destroyed Tulsa 72-53, but that was at home. They’ve played just four “true” road games and while they’re 3-1 SU, the record could be worse considering all four games were decided by five points or less.

Memphis has been favored in every game this season, which should tell you something. This is a talented team with five double digit scorers and they play excellent defense, giving up only 58.0 PPG here at home. Wichita State has actually covered six in a row going back to 12/15 as two of their last eight games came against non-DI foes. Other than last time out (vs. Tulsa), they don’t have a dominant conference win to speak of, so I see the respective trends reversing tonight as the home team gets back on track. 8* Memphis

10* Golden State (10:05 ET): Last season was anything but normal in the NBA. There was a shutdown in March, a “bubble” beginning in July and the Finals weren’t completed until October. But on a less serious note, there was something else strange when it came to start the postseason. Neither the Spurs nor the Warriors were in sight. The two Western Conference stalwarts both missed the playoffs in 2020, but they’ve each got their respective eyes back on them this season. The Spurs come in at 8-6 SU on the year and currently sit 5th in the West. Golden State, at 7-6, isn’t too far behind (in 7th). 

Last time out, the Spurs were able to take advantage of a short-handed Portland team (no Nurkic or McCollum) and won 125-104 as 1.5-point favorites. It was their second straight victory as they were also able to beat the Rockets 103-91 as seven-point chalk two days earlier. Again, that was a short-handed opponent though. In the wake of the James Harden trade, Houston was down to only eight players and almost couldn’t play. Yet they still led San Antonio for much of the first three quarters. 

Golden State was obviously short-handed for most of last year as injuries caused them to nosedive down the standings. San Antonio, like a lot of other teams, took advantage and swept the season series from the Warriors. It was two wins, one in overtime. But this year’s Warriors, while still not back at their Championship level, are much better with Steph Curry playing every day. They just upset the Lakers on Monday, a game where I backed them to cover. This line looks low to me. 10* Golden

10* Arkansas (9:00 ET): After starting the season 8-0, Arkansas has struggled, losing four of its last five games. But tonight the Razorbacks are matched up against a team they’ve already beaten once this year and that win came on the road with little difficulty. Now they welcome Auburn to Fayetteville where their WL record is still 9-1 SU + they are averaging 88.7 PPG. Auburn has struggled on the road, not just this season (where they are 1-3 SU), but the L3 seasons as they’ve gone 7-17 ATS. Lay the points here.

I remember the first Arkansas-Auburn matchup well as I won by laying the points with Arkansas. The game went down on December 30th and featured plenty of offense with the Hogs winning by a final score of 97-85. Key for me is that they were laying 3.5 points in that one, now they’re laying only slightly more at home. Thus, I’m seeing plenty of value here given how that first game played out. Auburn actually shot 51.9% in the first meeting, including 15 of 27 on three-pointers, yet still lost by double digits at home! 

The Tigers are quite unlikely to match those shooting percentages tonight. They are shooting just 28.4% on the road this season from three-point range. Even with red-hot shooting, they couldn’t beat Arkansas at home. Therefore, I just don’t see much of a path to victory this time. Arkansas has gone cold in its L5 games (39.2 FG%), but given their YTD scoring average (12th in the country!) should bounce back. They shot nearly 50% from the field in the 1st meeting and also had an edge at the FT line, making 77% compared to 58% for Auburn. Those free throw percentages are right in line with the respective season averages. Off a horrible game vs. Alabama, this is a prime “buy low” spot for the Razorbacks, who are holding opponents to just 64.3 PPG in Fayetteville. 10* Arkansas

8* Boise State (9:00 ET): Boise State is flat out rolling right now. It’s 12 straight wins for the Broncos following a season-opening loss at Houston, for which there should be no shame at all (Houston is a top 10 team). All but one of those 12 victories has been by double digits and when I took them on New Year’s Eve (at San Jose State), they won 106-54 as a 22-point favorite! The Broncos are one of a dwindling number of teams in the country that still has a perfect conference record and I see things staying that way tonight against overmatched Fresno State.

The Bulldogs come in at just 5-5 SU on the year and the road has been rather unkind to them. They’ve lost all four previous road games (by an average of 18.5 PPG) and none of them have been close. Last weekend saw FSU get swept in Reno, losing by 14 and 16 in two games vs. Nevada. That’s actually better than they did earlier in the year at Colorado State when they dropped two in a row by a combined 44 points. They’re now at Boise for a pair this week (next game is Friday) and it’s difficult to see how a team that’s 1-5 ATS vs. .500 or better teams competes here. 

Furthermore, four of Fresno State’s five wins this season have come against either non-DI teams (William Jessup and Fresno Pacific) or San Jose State (worst team in the MWC). They are 0-4 ATS as underdogs. They have shot just 38.1% in those four previous road losses and are making only 24% of their three-point attempts. They are also a horrible free throw shooting team. Boise State is 28th in the country in scoring (81.8 PPG) and their average margin of victory in MWC play so far is an eye-popping 23.4 PPG. They allow only 58.4 PPG at home. 8* Boise State

8* Illinois (8:30 ET): There really is no excuse for Illinois to have lost so many games thus far, even though four of the five defeats have come by six points or less (three by 3 pts or less) and the other to #2 Baylor. My own personal power ratings still consider the Fighting Illini a top 10 team in the country, but right now they are on the verge of falling out of the Top 25 in both polls (AP/Coaches) after suffering B2B losses to Maryland and Ohio State in the L9 days. Both those losses came here in Champaign! I can’t see a third straight home loss, so I’ll lay the points against a team the Illini have already beaten this season. 

This is a rematch from 12/23 when Illinois went to Happy Valley and won 98-81 as four-point chalk. Based on that line and result, you can see we are getting some value with the favored side tonight. Penn State shot 53.8% in that first meeting, something they are very unlikely to do here in the rematch as their FG% on the road this season is just 39.7. They allowed Illinois to shoot 55% in the first go-around as I see no reason why the Illini can’t come close to matching that number tonight, given how they are shooting overall (51.3%) for the season. 

Penn State has played just twice since that loss to Illinois last month. They’ve gone down in road games at Purdue and Indiana, the latter taking place Sunday. It was the third game in a row the Nittany Lions allowed at least 80 points. That’s not a good sign when taking on the 7th most efficient offense. Remember what I mentioned earlier, the Illini hung 98 points in the first meeting. Poor starts have doomed Brad Underwood’s team the L2 games. I do not see that happening here. 8* Illinois

10* SE Missouri State (7:00 ET): This is a matchup of two not-so-good Ohio Valley Conference sides and the bottom line is you would want to take the points, no matter who was favored. I’ve got the teams rated virtually even, so there’s really no reason that Tennessee State should be laying this many points … to anyone. They are last in the OVC with a 1-6 SU record and just 2-8 SU overall. While five of those losses have come by four points or fewer (what crummy luck!), I still would never endorse the Tigers as chalk. 

SE Missouri St is just 3-8 SU and 1-4 vs. the rest of the OVC. But they are 5-1 ATS on the road as well. They actually covered the spread at Belmont, notable as that’s the class of the conference and the Bruins also happened to destroy Tennessee State by 25 here in Nashville. Now the RedHawks have just one SU win in their last eight games, but it came against … Tennessee State back on January 2nd! It was an 83-79 win for SEMS, a game that went to double overtime. That the RedHawks won was pretty remarkable when you consider they shot just 35.8% including 5 of 23 from three-point range. 

SEMS has also had poor luck in close games, losing four games that were decided by six points or less. They did win the close one vs. TN State, doing so as 1.5-point chalk. I see no reason why the line should have swung so much for the rematch. As an underdog, the Red Hawks are 6-3 ATS this season with outright wins over UMKC and Lipscomb. Tennessee State has been favored only two other times, one of those being their last game, which they lost outright at Tennessee Tech 74-71. Take the points. 10* SE Missouri State

10* Golden State (10:05 ET): The Lakers, as expected, have been very good this season as they lead the Western Conference with an 11-3 SU record. They’ve won five in a row and 9 of their last 10. Their YTD point differential (+11.0 per game) is the league’s best and their net efficiency rating is right on par with Milwaukee. What I’m saying is that, yes, the defending NBA Champs are again the team to beat. They’ve won four straight by double digits, but look for tonight’s game to be a little closer than expected as they’re facing a Golden State team that’s eager to get back to the pinnacle of the league once again.

Last year was an injury-induced disaster for the three-time champion Warriors and a bounce back was all but assured for 2020-21. Just how much they “bounce back” remains to be seen as the Dubs currently sit 8th in the West and aren’t the same offensive juggernaut they used to be. They’ve lost B2B games - to Indiana and Denver - and had a game vs. Phoenix postponed on Friday. Having not played since Thursday, I’m expecting a hot start here from the fresh Warriors in this nationally televised affair. 

One key for the Dubs will be maintaining their recent play on the defensive end. They’ve held six straight opponents under 115 points and if they can do that again here, they should be able to easily cover the large spread. The Lakers have actually lost each of the L3 years on MLK Day -- by a total of 60 points! Also, all three losses this season have come at home. With a game at Milwaukee later this week, the Lakers may be overlooking the Warriors and that would be a mistake. I smell a big game from Steph Curry. 10* Golden State

8* VMI (7:30 ET): These SoCon rivals met three times last year, once in the Conference Tourney, and while East Tennessee State won all three games straight up, it was VMI that covered the spread every time. The losses were by six, five and 13 points and the Keydets have nothing to hang their heads over as East Tenn State was a good team last season. This season, the Buccaneers aren’t quite as strong, hence this line being in the single digits (something that wasn’t the case in any of the three meetings LY). 

VMI is a strong offensive team, which was very evident on Saturday when they defeated The Citadel 110-103. No, there was no overtime. The Keydets are now averaging 82.1 PPG on the season, so it’s going to either take a lot of points by ETSU, or a really strong defensive effort, to cover the number here. VMI is 7-3 ATS on the year, including 4-0 if they allowed 80+ points the previous game. I realize their defense is shaky, but this is a spot the Keydets usually cover in. Also, two of their last four losses have been by two points. 

East Tennessee State is coming off a loss, 78-66 at Wofford where they were 9.5-point underdogs. That was their first game in two weeks, but it was late, not early, that saw them struggle. The Buccaneers can’t score at the rate VMI does and while they are the better defensive team here, I don’t think they’ll be able to contain the opponent enough to cover this large of a spread. ETSU has only been favored in three games so far and only one time by more than 3.5 points. They failed to cover, laying 12.5 to Gardner-Webb. Two of ETSU’s last three opponents have shot at least 50% from the field. 8* VMI

10* St. John’s (2:30 ET): It just feels right to be able to once again call these teams conference rivals. UConn has rejoined the Big East this season and this will be the first meeting w/ St, John’s since 2013. The Huskies not only comes in ranked (#25), but they’ve covered six in a row. The Huskies’ only loss came by two points against Creighton (a top 10 team). They’ve won four straight (SU) since including a 3-0 January record with all those games coming on the road. UConn hasn’t taken the court in a week due to a game with #3 Villanova being postponed. This game will be on FOX Monday afternoon.

St. John’s hasn’t had nearly the amount of problems with COVID cancellations than UConn has. The Red Storm have played nearly twice the number of games the Huskies have and come into today sporting a 7-7 SU record. It’s been a bit of a struggle recently as the team started 5-1, but has now dropped six of its last eight including a 2-point home loss to Marquette on Saturday. As an underdog, the Johnnies have struggled and they are also winless on the road (0-4 SU). They are in both roles Monday, but I’m expecting this to be a strong effort off the narrow loss 48 hours ago. 

This boils down to the fact that I feel UConn is due for a bad game. Coming off a week layoff and playing a rare weekday afternoon game, it just “feels” like this might be it. St. John’s has had several narrow losses, just not Saturday, while UConn’s won a couple close ones. The Huskies are without leading scorer James Bouknight and quite frankly were lucky to beat Depaul last week as they were outrebounded and shot the ball poorly. Depaul was careless with the basketball and that’s why UConn won the game. St. John’s averages almost 80 PPG and will be a lot tougher to beat. Take the points. 10* St. Johns

10* Under Pelicans/Kings (9:05 ET): Sacramento’s defense has been so bad that it almost has “no choice” but to improve. The Kings are dead last in the league in a variety of defensive categories and as a result are just 5-8 SU on the year. They have allowed 122 or more points in seven straight games and the last two they gave up 132 and 138. That makes tonight’s play on the Under quite the “contrarian” call, but I’ve got reason to believe the new defensive system that HC Luke Walton is implementing will start to take hold.

New Orleans is not a great offensive team. They are averaging just 105.9 PPG for the season, which is 28th (third worst) in the league. On Friday, they were held under 100 points for the fourth time this season despite shooting better than 60% in the 1st half. Now they were facing the Lakers, who are at the opposite end of the spectrum from the Kings in terms of defense. But still, scoring 37 points in a half is really bad (which is what the Pelicans did in the 2H vs. LA). They are 5-1 Under on the road so far this season. 

That game vs. the Lakers stayed Under the total as did the Pelicans’ first five games of the season. In between that, they went Over in five straight. But tonight will mark the highest O/U line for them since the third game of the season. Sacramento has been facing some very good offensive teams of late, which is why the Over is 6-1 their L7 games. But they’re not facing a good offensive team here. Also, the Kings have scored 100 or less in two of their last four games. New Orleans can hold them to a low number too as they rank in the upper half of the league in defensive efficiency. 10* Under Pelicans/Kings

8* Bradley (4:00 ET): These teams just played Saturday and while Bradley “only” won 69-60, they are still being undervalued for this rematch. The respective shooting percentages from yesterday’s game are very interesting to look at. Bradley shot an incredible 61.4% from the floor while Evansville finished at just 37.7%. You may see those numbers and think there’s no way that kind of difference will repeat itself. But consider Bradley was only 3 of 11 from three-point range (27.3%) while Evansville was 14 of 34 (41.2%).

Making 11 more threes than your opponent and still losing by nine is a pretty bad deal if you’re Evansville (or any other team for that matter). I just don’t see there being any way that discrepancy repeats itself again Sunday. So that’s bad news for the Purple Aces, who made only SIX two-point field goals in yday’s game. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a low number! Meanwhile, Bradley shot 24 of 33 from inside the arc, so they’ve got a clear edge down low in this particular matchup. 

Evansville is now just 1-4 SU on the road this season. They are 6-7 SU overall and did cover six straight games at one point, but consider them overachievers as they’ve been favored just twice in their last eight games. They’ve now lost two straight as they fell at home, 73-68, to Illinois State last Sunday. Bradley has won two straight as they beat Northern Iowa by two on Monday. The Braves have won four in a row at home and have beaten Evansville six straight times by an average of 11 PPG. They have huge edges down low and defensively. 8* Bradley

10* Memphis (3:00 ET): Memphis has failed to cover six in a row and is just 2-8 ATS on the season. But things should change today as they face Tulsa for the second time. This spread is as off as any I’ve seen in awhile. The Tigers were 9.5-point favorites when they hosted Tulsa on December 21st. While they lost that game 56-49, my personal power ratings still have them significantly favored in this revenge spot. Oddsmakers opened them as underdogs, which appears to be a mistake as they were quickly bet to the role of favorite. I’ll follow the money on this one. In that first meeting, there wasn’t much offense to speak of. I do find it incredible that Memphis found a way to lose, at home, despite holding Tulsa to just 19 points in the first half! Things took a dramatic turn after the break with the Golden Hurricane outscoring the Tigers 37-22. Neither team shot well with Tulsa making only 34.7% of their FG attempts and Memphis making only 32.1%. The teams combined to go a horrendous 10 of 41 from three-point range. The difference came at the FT line where Tulsa made 17 of 28 compared to just 10 of 21 for Memphis. Anfernee Hardaway’s team has had their last three scheduled games all postponed due to COVID, so they should be “itching” to take the court Sunday. They haven’t played since December 29th! So they’ll be fresh. Meanwhile, Tulsa just lost by 19 at Wichita State on Wednesday, snapping a six-game win streak. As well as they’d been playing, the Golden Hurricane come in averaging just 61.7 PPG and Memphis is a stout defensive team. I believe in my power ratings and the fact Memphis is better than its record (they’ve been favored in every game) while Tulsa is not as good as theirs. 10* Memphis

8* Massachusetts (2:30 ET): UMass is 4-3 SU, which has to be considered disappointing as all three SU losses came when they were favored. But those three losses - to Northeastern, Bryant and George Mason - were all by five points or less. So the Minutemen could easily be coming into Sunday with a better won-loss record. They’ve definitely turned things around over the last week or so, beating LaSalle and Rhode Island, the latter being a close game that went their way (80-78) and it was an upset as the Minutemen were three-point home underdogs.

Now they are road favorites and should have little difficulty beating a Fordham team that has yet to break 55 points in any game this season. If you recall, I just played against Fordham Wednesday afternoon when they faced St. Bonaventure. That ended up being a somewhat close call with the Bonnies prevailing 68-54 as 11-point road favorites. The Rams scored only 17 points in the second half as their offensive woes continued. Not only have they yet to score more than 55 in any of their five games, but they are shooting a dreadful 34% from the field, including 23% from three-point range.

As I mentioned in Wednesday’s writeup, Fordham was picked to finish last in the Atlantic 10 this year. You’re starting to see why. Three of their four losses have been by double digits and two of those were by 24 and 37 points. They are one of the worst offensive teams in the country. So this should be easy pickings for a UMass team that is averaging 85.3 PPG. The Minutemen have scored at least 75 in every game and beat La Salle twice, by 19 and 16, which is noteworthy as Fordham lost to the Explorers by 37. 8* Massachusetts. 

10* Atlanta (10:05 ET): I guess it’s time to “pump the brakes” on that Hawks’ bandwagon as the team has now dropped five of six following what was an impressive 4-1 SU start to the season. They just lost last night in Utah, 116-92, a result I did not care for as an Over bettor. That was the Hawks’ seventh straight game to go Under, yet oddsmakers are still expecting a high-scoring game here as they face Portland. I’ll stick with taking the points here as the underdog should be pretty desperate for a win. 

The Blazers were also blown out in their last game, losing 111-87 here at home to Indiana. While they had won four in a row before that, two of the wins were against Sacramento and another was vs. Minnesota. The other was a 1-pt win over Toronto, who is struggling. Portland is now just 1-5 ATS this season at home where it has been outscored. They are a bottom five team in the league in defensive efficiency, which is not a good sign. Neither is the fact Jusuf Nurkic broke his wrist Thursday and will be out indefinitely. 

Atlanta could not buy a bucket last night as they went 5 of 28 from three-point range and watched Utah go on a 21-0 run to open a 29-point lead. As horrible a performance as that was, the Hawks are obviously going to shoot the ball better tonight being that they are facing a poor defensive team. Trae Young in particular is due for a big game. The Hawks had been 3-0 ATS in the underdog role prior to last night’s loss, which was their largest of the season. Teams are often undervalued in the second night of a back to back, especially if they’re off a loss, and that’s the case here. Take the points. 10* Atlanta

10* Florida (4:00 ET): The Gators went almost three weeks without playing a game in December. Since returning to the court “full-time,” they’ve gone 3-2 SU including a key win over Ole Miss, 72-63, in Gainesville earlier in the week. Now they head to Starkville where they’ll take on a Miss State team that lost its “shooting touch” in a 56-55 loss to Texas A&M on Wednesday. That was the fewest points scored in a game by the Bulldogs since the season opener. They had topped 80 in six of their previous eight contests. While the tendency is to back the home team in a bounce back spot, that’s not the case here as Florida is just plain better. 

Of course, the big story this season with Florida was the on-court collapse of Keyontae Johnson, back on 12/12 vs. Florida State. It was after that the team went nearly three weeks without playing. The Gators have also had to endure players missing games due to COVID, such as Scottie Lewis, who did not play in the last game. Things were not looking great following losses to Alabama and Kentucky, but then came the win Tuesday over Ole Miss where the Gators really turned up the defense. Remember that this team beat LSU a couple weeks ago. They are also playing with double revenge here (0-2 vs. Miss St L2 seasons). 

MSU has lost four games this year in which it held a halftime lead. Wednesday vs. Texas A&M was the latest. They led the Aggies by 10 at the break in that one, only to score just 22 points in the 2H. A&M closed the game with a 12-5 run to win by a single point. Don’t be surprised if that has a carryover effect. Florida has had an extra day off (compared to MSU) to prepare here. Miss State struggles to defend the three-point line and you should look out for Florida’s Colin Castleton, who had 21 pts, 10 rebounds and EIGHT blocks in the last game. 10* Florida

10* Over Hawks/Jazz (9:05 ET): After having their previous game postponed, Atlanta finally takes the court again Friday night as they’ll travel to face Utah. Last we saw the Hawks was Monday when they snapped a four-game losing streak by defeating the Sixers 112-94. Early on, the Hawks were REALLY flying high as they got off to a 4-1 SU/ATS start to the season. But then they crashed back down with the aforementioned four-game slide - two of the losses vs. Charlotte - and all as favorites. They should be more comfortable in the underdog role tonight as they are 3-0 ATS this season when getting points.

Utah dominated Cleveland its last time out, winning by 30 (117-87) on the road. It was the second straight game where the Jazz held their opponent under 90 points and won. They beat Detroit 96-86 on Sunday. Such defensive efforts shouldn’t have been that surprising as the Pistons and Cavs are two of the worst offensive teams this league has to offer. Before the season, the Pistons were thought to be the worst offensive team in the league. It turns out that’s Cleveland, who is currently last in offensive efficiency by a mile.

So it should be a much tougher chore at the defensive end tonight for Utah. The Hawks have averaged 121.2 points in five road games so far. While that number is skewed by a 141-point game vs. Brooklyn, look for the Hawks to hang a pretty big number here. They’ve gone Under in six straight, but many of those O/U lines were much larger than this one. They are 15-3 Over vs. Northwest Division teams. Utah also had its last game cancelled, so both teams come in fresh and ready to run. This should turn into a bit of a shootout w/ the Over being 35-17 the L52 times Atlanta has been an underdog. 10* Over Hawks/Jazz

8* Under Mavs/Bucks (7:35 ET): These teams have “taken turns” leading the league in offensive efficiency the past two seasons (Bucks in 2018-19, Mavs in 2019-20) with the Bucks back on top so far this season. But I’m anticipating this Friday night ESPN matchup to be a bit more low-scoring than you might think. I just won with the Under on Milwaukee’s last game, a 110-101 win over the Pistons. They’ve now gone Under in three straight, allowing an average of just 96.7 PPG during that time. Dallas is tied with the Lakers for #1 in defensive efficiency while the Bucks aren’t far behind at #4 in that department.

The Mavs come into tonight on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak, which has seen them defeat Houston, Denver, Orlando and Charlotte. In each of the last two games, they’ve held the opposition below 100 points and both those games stayed Under. The Under is 7-3 in all Mavs’ games this season, which have averaged “only” 213.8 PPG or well below the O/U for tonight’s matchup. On Wednesday, they held Charlotte to only 93 points on 38% shooting, including 10 of 38 from three-point range.

Milwaukee once again looks like the best team in the league as they have the best point differential and net efficiency rating. Winners of six of their last seven, the Bucks are right near the top of the Eastern Conference standings, a place we all thought they’d be. They get a break here in that Dallas is a bit short-handed right now. Having held their previous five opponents to 42.8% shooting, it’s not as if the Bucks really need much of a break. Dallas is 5-2 Under its last seven tries as an underdog and I happen to think this O/U has been set too high. 8* Under Mavs/Bucks

10* UAB (5:00 ET): UAB looks to be severely underpriced here. The Blazers have lost only one time (9-1 SU) and that was to Chattanooga (who’s now 11-3 SU) by three points. They were 10.5-point favorites in that lone defeat, which they’ve subsequently bounced back from by beating Southern Miss twice last weekend. But, as double digit favorites, the Blazers did not cover either game vs. Southern Miss. While this is only the second “true” road game of the season, they beat a decent E Tenn State team in the first and that was on the only game (besides today) this season that they DIDN’T go off as a DD favorite. We look to be getting a real discount here. 

Charlotte is 5-5 SU and coming off a terrible loss to a non-DI opponent, Belmont Abbey. That’s the only game the 49ers have played in the L2 weeks. The team had previously won four of five and covered two straight at home vs. Western Kentucky. They did have a couple impressive early season wins, beating South Carolina State by 38 and upsetting Davidson on the road as a 10.5-point dog. But their other three wins have all been by four points or less and they’re a bit lucky to even be .500 at this point. 

Defensively, UAB has been excellent, giving up just 57.0 PPG. That ranks 3rd in the country among teams that have played at least 10 games with the only two allowing fewer being Houston and Tennessee, a pair of Top 10 teams in the country. Charlotte has been through a lot recently with their last two games both going into OT and a COVID 19 cancellation vs. Marshall. Not only did they just shoot only 36.8% against a non-DI team, but they’ve allowed three of the last five opponents to shoot 50% or better. UAB has double revenge and is 5-1 ATS playing with 5 or 6 days rest. 10* UAB

8* Golden State (10:05 ET): Denver has struggled out of the gate and I can’t say I’m all that surprised. Coming off B2B seasons where they seemingly “overachieved,” regression was eventually going to take hold. In 2018-19, the Nuggets really benefited from a 13-3 SU record in games decided by three points or less. In 2019-20, they weren’t as fortunate in close games, but did manage to still finish 3rd in the West despite having the 6th best point differential in the Conference. They have begun the current season 5-6 SU (3-8 ATS) and are coming off a six-point loss in Brooklyn the other night. 

Conversely, everyone expected Golden State to improve this year after shockingly falling to the depths of the league in 2019-20. Injuries were the main culprit for LY’s decline. I don’t think we’ll ever get to the point where it’s the “Warriors of old,” but there’s no reason why the Dubs can’t nap a top eight spot in the West this season. It’s a little surprising that they’ve only been favored three times so far, the most recent being Tuesday’s 104-95 LOSS to Indiana. But despite that, they still come into tonight sporting a 6-5 SU overall record.

The Nuggets are probably due for a lower-scoring game tonight after shooting better than 50% from the field in three consecutive contests. Plus, they just allowed the Nets to shoot over 60% on Tuesday. But Golden State should see its own scoring increase here following B2B subpar shooting efforts against Toronto & Indiana. Rather quietly, the Dubs are playing great defense of late as they’ve held their L5 opponents to 105.6 PPG on 42.9% shooting. I like them as underdogs tonight as they’ve won outright four of their last five times in that role. Take the points. 8* Golden State

10* Indiana (7:00 ET): The Hoosiers have lost seven straight times to Purdue, a streak that goes back to the 2016-17 season. But this year, IU is clearly the better team and I think they’ll show that Thursday night at Assembly Hall. I was on the Hoosiers Sunday evening when they went to Nebraska and won 84-76 as a six-point favorite. While that ended up being a close game for much of the second half, be aware that IU led by double digits at halftime and was in control most of the way. They’ve now won three of four, the lone loss coming in double overtime at Wisconsin last week. I’m laying the points here.

Purdue is off an upset as they went to East Lansing last Friday and beat Michigan State 55-54 as a six-point dog. We know Sparty is overrated this year, but don’t tell that to the contingent in West Lafayette as they were just happy to win a game after dropping three of their previous four. The Boilermakers have also really been struggling at the betting window where they are just 2-7-1 L10 games. I should mention tonight will be their FOURTH consecutive road game, a tall order no matter the opponent, but when faced with a team that has an argument to be in the Top 25 the task is obviously even more difficult. 

Purdue has played a total of five “true” road games before this. They have been held under 60 points in four of them. That seems troubling when facing a team that is averaging 78.6 PPG at home, not to mention just dropped 84 on the road. The Hoosiers are also 14th in the country in defensive efficiency. They are obviously well aware of the losing streak to Purdue and thus should come in supremely motivated here. Tip your cap to Purdue for the win at East Lansing, but they trailed by 15 at halftime and won on a last second shot. 10* Indiana

8* Under California/Colorado (2:00 ET): Cal has gone Over in seven straight games, but this afternoon they are running into an opponent that I feel is among the most underrated teams in the country, that being Colorado. The Buffs scored for us on Monday, beating Utah 65-58 as a 2.5-pt favorite, though they did have to rally back from a 10-point halftime deficit to do so. This is a team that plays excellent defense, especially at home where they are allowing just 55.3 points per game thus far. You’ll want to be on the Under here. 

California won its first Pac 12 game of the season Saturday by defeating struggling Washington 84-78. That was the Bears’ highest scoring effort since an 87-56 blowout of CS Northridge back on 12/19. Between those two 80+ point games, Cal was held to 70 or less four straight times. I should also bring up the fact that playing on the road should lead to an obvious decrease in offensive production. The Bears have played five “true” road games thus far and the most they’ve scored in any of them was 69. Four times they were held to 64 or less. 

Colorado is 18th in the country in defensive efficiency, so they’ve certainly “got the goods” to slow down Cal today. I really can’t believe this team isn’t ranked as my power ratings comfortably have them in the Top 20. It appears as if they are getting Cal at the perfect time as two of the Bears’ key players - Matt Bradley and Kuany Kuany - have been battling injuries and both missed the last game. Bradley is the team’s leading scorer, so if he misses a third straight game, it would be a huge loss. This game was supposed to be played last night, but got bumped back due to COVID protocols. The early afternoon start time may lead to a “sleepy start” for both teams. 8* Under California/Colorado

10* New Orleans (10:05 ET): The Pelicans haven’t played since Friday and will be eager to end a three-game slide here. They were favored in all three losses - to Indiana, OKC and Charlotte - all of which were at home. Then came a COVID-19 postponement as they were supposed to face Dallas Monday, but the Mavs didn’t have enough available players. With extended rest, I like the Pelicans getting points tonight as they are back on ESPN to face the inconsistent Clippers. Take the points.

The Clips let me down Sunday as they were not able to defeat the Bulls by the margin the oddsmakers were calling for. They won 130-127 as double digit favorites, a result they’ll take considering it came on the heels of a meltdown against the Warriors two days prior. But letting the Bulls shoot over 60% for the game was a major “red flag” to me. They trailed by seven at halftime, but were rather fortunate to go 20 of 38 from three-point range and thus rallied to win. I don’t think they can count on that kind of shooting again here as the Pelicans are holding teams to an average of just 100.2 PPG on the road thus far. 

I just think this is too many points for the Clippers to be laying to a desperate team. While they are 1-4 ATS as favorites this year, the Pelicans have not gotten this many points in any game so far. I’ve got this spread at 4.5 as New Orleans has outscored its opponents this season. They should be fresh and with this being the start of a six-game road trip, highly motivated. 10* New Orleans

10* Over Texas A&M/Mississippi State (9:00 ET): Texas A&M really struggles offensively and as a result their last seven games have ALL stayed Under the total. To end a streak such as that, sometimes all it takes is the “right opponent.” In this instance, that’s what we’ve got with Mississippi State, a team that has put up 80+ points in six of its last eight games. The Bulldogs have scored no less than 73 in any of those eight games, so I see them “helping” A&M to its first Over in more than a month. 

As you might have guessed, Over has been the way to go with Miss State as that’s how six of their last nine games have ended up and for some it might be seven of nine. (The 78-63 win over Missouri last week fell very close to the number). On Saturday, the Bulldogs were involved in quite the high-scoring affair as they beat Vanderbilt 84-81. They shot over 60% (31 of 51) in that win and completely overwhelmed the Commodores in the paint, outscoring them there 42-18. What’s truly remarkable about the Bulldogs putting up 84 points in that game is the fact they made only four three-pointers. They attempted only seven! 

But the negative is that they did allow Vandy to make 15 shots from behind the arc. As good as they’ve been offensively, MSU has allowed 73+ points in three of its last four contests. Saturday marked the third time this season they allowed more than 80! So A&M has a shot to get its offense going here. Their three point shooting, below 30% for the season, is certainly due to get better. Of course that won’t matter if the Aggies play defense like they did vs. Tennessee, who they allowed to shoot 58.7% from the floor. This number is way too low for a game involving a team like Miss St. 10* Over Texas A&M/Miss State

8* Under Bucks/Pistons (7:05 ET): These teams just met twice last week (both games in Milwaukee) and as you might have guessed, the Bucks won both times. The scores were remarkably similar, 125-115 and 130-115, and that had the Over also going 2 for 2. Now they face off in the Motor City where the Pistons will hope for a better result. It’s highly unlikely that the underdog can prevail here, but their best chance is to keep things a lot more low-scoring. I do think that’s going to happen, for a variety of reasons.

Since sweeping the Pistons last week, the Bucks have gone on to win two of their last three games. After losing to Utah (gave up 131 points!), they’ve bounced back to defeat both Cleveland (allowed just 90 points) and Orlando (allowed just 99 points). The Under hit in both wins and again, that’s what I see happening in this one as they are taking on another opponent that is apt to struggle at the offensive end. The Pistons are 26th in the league in offensive efficiency and prior to the season were projected to be LAST in that department.

Now keeping the Bucks’ offense (#1 in efficiency) is going to be the key to this play. The Bucks are averaging 121.9 PPG so far, but that’s going to be difficult to maintain. Tonight marks the first time they’ve had to play consecutive road games since the start of the New Year. Hopefully, that can have a small (negative) impact on their production. But the bottom line here is that in it’s last two games, Detroit has scored just 86 and 93 points in regulation. With injuries at the PG position, they shot just 33% vs. Utah on Sunday. The Under is 4-1 in the Pistons’ last five home games. 8* Under Bucks/Pistons

8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): I like the Mavericks quite a bit and fully anticipate they’ll finish in the top four of the Western Conference by season’s end. But Charlotte has very much been an above-average team so far (surprising!) and because of that I’m taking the points Wednesday night. While the Mavs come in as winners of three in a row - SU and ATS - the Hornets have won and covered four straight, three of those coming in the underdog role. I had them last Friday in an upset of New Orleans on ESPN. Following that, they blew out the Knicks 109-88 as five-point home favorites. 

This is already the second (and final) meeting of the season between these teams. Back on December 30th, the Hornets went into Dallas and pulled out a stunning 118-99 upset as eight-point underdogs. That was a cold-shooting night for the Mavs as they made only 39.1% of their FG attempts and were 12 of 42 from three-point range. If you’re looking for a reason why the Hornets have gotten hot, then look no further than the defensive end. Since a season opening loss in Cleveland, only Philadelphia has topped 110 points against them. 

Dallas had a game postponed due to COVID on Monday, so that very well might “throw them off.” The last time they played was Saturday (a 112-98 win over Orlando), so don’t be surprised if they come out rusty. A slow start could very well cost them and this looks like a real bargain on the Hornets considering they were +8 when they visited Dallas. Now they are they home team and the Mavs are 0-5 ATS L5 as road favorites. 8* Charlotte

8* St. Bonaventure (2:00 ET): We have what appears to be a massive mismatch from the A-10 this afternoon with the Bonnies playing at the long-time dreg of this league, Fordham. The road team comes in at 4-1 SU with the lone loss coming by six at Rhode Island. Since then, they’ve managed to beat a good (but somewhat overrated) Richmond team and then blew out St. Joe’s 83-57 last week. I don’t see any reason why the Bonnies shouldn’t win in blowout fashion again today as they face an opponent that has yet to score more than 55 points in a game this season. 

Fordham last’s game was played on Saturday and they did hang in there against Duquesne, “only” losing by three points (48-45!) as 13.5-point road underdogs. That came on the heels of the Rams’ only win of the season, a shocking 55-54 upset of Dayton here at home where they were 12-point underdogs. Prior to that, they lost by 24 and 37 to George Washington and LaSalle. Because of COVID-19, the Rams’ season didn’t even get underway until December 30th. It’s not like there was much to look forward to as they were predicted to finish LAST in the conference in the preseason poll. 

With Fordham’s offensive numbers being so dreadful, I just don’t see how they keep pace in this one. Yes, they’ve been able to rely on their defense to cover the L2 games and pull the one outright upset. But St. Bonaventure comes in averaging a solid 73.4 PPG. Furthermore, they defend the three-point line quite well as is evident by the fact their opponents are shooting just 25.7% from there for the season. Fordham is 341st in offensive efficiency this season (out of 357 teams). The Bonnies have covered six straight times against them and today should make it seven. 8* St. Bonaventure

10* Golden State (10:35 ET): Indiana is off a tough loss last night in Sacramento (127-122 as 3.5-pt favorites), which I feel makes them particularly vulnerable in the second night of B2B road games. Golden State, who is building “momentum” in the wake of victories against the Clippers and Raptors, should take full advantage of the situation. Since opening 0-2, the Warriors have won six of eight and what’s particularly jarring is the fact they’ve gone off as the favorite in just two of the victories. But this seems like an obvious time to lay a short number.

Golden State’s surge has actually come on the strength of their work on the defensive end as they’ve held four straight opponents to 108 points or less. During their incredible run of five straight Finals appearances, the Dubs routinely ranked among the league leaders in defensive efficiency. That’s something I think has been forgotten. Steph Curry actually had one of the worst shooting nights of his career vs. Toronto (2 of 16!), so it was a real “feather in the cap” that the team still won that game. Curry should obviously be expected to shoot the ball much better tonight. 

Indiana had been playing solid defense as well, but has now given up 125+ points in B2B games, both of which they lost as favorites. Making matters worse for tonight is the fact the team is already playing short-handed (no Warren, Lamb or McConnell) and the top three scorers (Sabonis, Brogdon, Oladipo) all played 37+ minutes last night. This simply looks to be a terrible spot for the Pacers. Depth is already a huge edge for Golden State as their reserves average 41.8 PPG (4th most in the league) while Indiana’s average only 30.3 (27th). That edge should be further exacerbated tonight. 10* Golden State

10* Marquette (9:00 ET): This Tuesday night Big East battle is critical for both teams, but especially Marquette, who has failed to cover in five straight games. The lone SU win during that stretch was by four against Georgetown (on Jan 2), but that was quickly followed with an 11-point home loss to UConn. Friday’s game at Villanova had to be postponed and there’s a good chance (given ‘Nova is the #3 ranked team in the country) that would have been yet another defeat. I view the postponement as a huge break for the Golden Eagles as they come into tonight well rested (full week off) while the opponent (Providence) is playing its second road game in three days. 

Let’s also not forget that Marquette holds victories over both Wisconsin and Creighton. Those are both top 10 teams! So the fact they’ve been struggling so much in conference play confounds me a bit. Against UConn, they were up 18 (in the second half!) but were on the wrong end of a 42-13 run down the stretch (what?!) and scored just two points over the final 4:44. Still, I don’t think there’s any reason to panic. At home this year, the Golden Eagles are allowing a FG% of 37.9! Their own shooting, which has been poor the L2 games, should improve here against a team that’s not very good defensively. 

Providence is coming off B2B losses by a combined three points. They lost by two at home to Creighton on Jan 2, then by one at Xavier on Sunday. The loss to Xavier was particularly brutal as the Friars shot better than 51% for the game and led by seven with just over a minute to go. They allowed the game’s final eight points and the winning basket, a three-pointer, came with just 0.1 seconds left on the clock. I find it hard to believe Providence is going to be able to recover from a defeat such as that with such a short turnaround between games. They are 1-6 ATS playing with one or less days rest the L3 seasons, including 0-2 this season. Not only does the schedule work in Marquette’s favor here, they’ve got the added motivation of double revenge for a pair of losses to the Friars last season. 10* Marquette

8* Akron (3:00 ET): You may not know this, but Northern Illinois is atrocious. At 1-9 SU, the Huskies can be found among the bottom 25 teams in the country in my personal power ratings. They are the lowest rated MAC team. The one win came against a Chicago State team that could be the worst in the entire country and actually just suspended its season. But coming off a surprise loss at Eastern Michigan on Saturday, don’t look for favored Akron to take the Huskies lightly. Rather, they can sense the “blood in the water” and should win here in blowout fashion. 

The Zips were hoping for a convincing win Saturday in Ypsilanti, but were instead upset by Eastern Michigan as 5.5-point chalk. They scored a season-low 59 points as they shot just 25% from 3-point range. Turning it over 17 times didn’t help matters either. I think they re-discover the shooting touch Tuesday as NIU just allowed its previous opponent (Miami OH) to shoot 53.2%. It was almost exactly one year ago that Akron came here to DeKalb and won 72-49 as 2.5-pt favorites. 

Northern Illinois has been dreadful at the offensive end, averaging only 58.8 PPG. They’ve topped 64 only twice, against Ball State on 12/8 and Ohio on 1/5 . That Ohio game is the only one the Huskies have covered as it was a 3-point loss. Saturday’s 70-58 loss to Miami was already the sixth double digit loss (in 10 games) for the Huskies. They are now 5-14 ATS the L3 seasons coming off a game where they scored 60 points or less.The favorite won’t mess around in this afternoon game. 8* Akron

10* Under Pacers/Kings (10:05 ET): Indiana is off a home loss to Phoenix, 125-117, on Saturday night. It was just the third loss this season for the Pacers, who are in their usual position of “second tier” in the Eastern Conference. They do have one of the better point differentials in the East and also sport a better net efficiency rating than 7-1 Philadelphia. Coming off a loss, the Pacers have to be “licking their chops” as they start a five-game West Coast swing in Sacramento against a Kings team that’s lost five of six.

Sacramento’s most recent loss was an ugly one as they fell 125-99 at home to Portland. That makes it five ATS losses in a row and B2B 20+ point defeats at home. They also lost here to Toronto on Friday, giving up 144 points in the process. This is a very bad defensive team as it has allowed 124+ points in four straight games while dropping to dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. 

Despite that, I expect tonight’s game to stay Under the total. The Kings’ defensive numbers almost HAVE to improve and the Pacers will also be looking to improve on that end after giving up 125 to Phoenix. This will be the highest O/U to date for any Indiana game. They are 2-0 Under this season after allowing 115+ points last game. Meanwhile, the Under is 13-6 for the Kings following a double digit defeat at home. That trend held in the Portland game. This number simply opened way too high. 10* Under Pacers/Kings

8* Colorado (6:00 ET): Colorado may or may not enter the rankings when the new Top 25 poll is released later today. Regardless they SHOULD be included as my power rankings like this team quite a bit, calling them the Pac 12’s best. They just beat Oregon 79-72 on Thursday and that’s significant because the opponent they face tonight (Utah) just lost to the Ducks on Saturday (here in Salt Lake City) by a score of 79-73. Colorado also holds a recent victory over USC, who destroyed the Utes 64-46 three days later. Oddsmakers opened this line way too low and I’m jumping on it. 

Troubling for Utah is the fact they shot 55.8% against Oregon and still lost. It’s a virtual certainty that the Utes will not shoot that well again tonight. Against USC, they made only 27.9% of their field goal attempts. While it may not get that dire again this evening, Colorado is top 30 in the country in defensive efficiency and allows only 62.6 PPG. The fact Utah blew a 10-point halftime lead against Oregon may carry over here. 

While Utah has the home court edge tonight, that obviously doesn’t mean a ton in 2021. Colorado has the edge in rest as they haven’t played since Thursday while Utah’s game with Oregon was on Saturday. This game was originally going to be played on March 6th, but got bumped up because Colorado’s game with Oregon State (scheduled for Saturday) was postponed. Utah HC Larry Krystowiak seems to be tinkering with his lineup while Colorado will have the best player on the floor in McKinley Wright IV. Lay the short number. 8* Colorado

10* Indiana (6:00 ET): Similar to yesterday’s GOW winner on Texas Tech, I’ve got this line a lot higher than it actually is. With a 7-5 SU record, Indiana obviously isn’t going to merit much conversation for the Top 25. But my power ratings DO consider them a Top 25 team. Consider that four of their five losses this year have been to Top 25 teams with the most recent (Thursday) coming in double overtime at #8 Wisconsin. That was the third loss to a team rated in my own Top 10, two of them in OT. The Big 10 gauntlet is tough for everybody, but Nebraska is probably the worst team in the conference. So look for the Hoosiers to win big Sunday. 

Nebraska has lost four in a row coming into this game and they haven’t been all that competitive. While they covered their last game, as a nine-point underdog here at home vs. Michigan State, that was actually the Cornhuskers’ first ATS victory since November 28th (and just the second of the season). They lost by seven to Sparty, but before that their previous five losses had all been by double digits. They lost here in Lincoln as a five-point favorite to Nevada. Their only three wins this year have been vs. McNeese State, North Dakota State and Doane College.

IU won all three meetings w/ Nebraska last season, all of the wins coming by six or more points. Right before the season shut down, they ended the Cornhuskers’ season with a 25-point beatdown in the Big 10 Tournament. Nebraska is being outscored by 17 PPG so far in Big 10 play and isn’t likely to match the kind of shooting we saw from them vs. Michigan State. Defensively, Indiana is allowing just 40.7% shooting for the year. I think this is where they break out offensively, even without Armaan Franklin. 10* Indiana

10* LA Clippers (4:05 ET): I expect a VERY strong effort from the Clippers on Sunday afternoon. This is a team that just blew a 21-point second half lead Friday and lost to the rival Warriors. Following that defeat, Kawhi Leonard quipped “things have to change.” He was probably referring to the fact that since the start of last season, the Clippers have lost an NBA-high eight times when leading by 15+ points. This team should definitely be better than 6-4 coming into Sunday. It’s “wrong place, wrong time” for the Bulls here. 

Now we’ve got to be wary of the fact Chicago has covered seven of its last eight games including the last four. All of those covers came as underdogs and they’ve won four of the games outright. But Sunday afternoon in LA will mark the Bulls’ fourth road game in six days and you have to wonder how much they’ll have left in the tank. Honestly, I think the fact they have been covering so much sets us up with some nice value. Yes, the spread is double digits. But it’s not like the Clips aren’t capable of winning by that kind of margin.

They’ve won twice by at least 13 this season and there have been multiple other games where they built DD leads. The fact that they are routinely up so big should tell you something - this is still one of the better teams in the NBA. Again, they should be very motivated coming off the Golden State loss.The Bulls just lost by two and four points the last two games, making this an even harder than normal fourth road game in six days. The Bulls are 27th in defensive efficiency and I believe could get torched by a motivated favorite. 10* LA Clippers

10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): I’m “turning on” the Hornets here after they delivered me a 118-110 outright win last night in New Orleans. The change of course makes sense. Not only is this the second night of a back to back for Charlotte, but they are also facing a revenge-minded Atlanta team they just defeated Wednesday night. I’d say it seems pretty easy to envision the Hornets having a “letdown” game Saturday night, coming off B2B upsets. We’ve got to pay a premium here (Hawks were only -5.5 at home Weds night), but it’s well worth the investment, in my opinion. 

Following a strong 4-1 start to the year, the Hawks were looking like one of the most improved teams in the league. But three straight losses - all as favorites - have really quelled that discussion. It’s not just that the Hawks have lost three in a row, it’s who they’ve lost to: Cleveland, New York and Charlotte. If they envision themselves as one of the league’s most improved teams, then those are games they have to win. It is worth noting that they held DD leads in the second half against both the Knicks and Cavs. Those are games that Atlanta SHOULD have won. 

Against Charlotte on Wednesday, the Hawks took a lot of ill-advised shots early and found themselves in a 16-point hold at the end of the 1Q. They trailed by as many as 24 as Gordon Hayward scored a career-high 44 points. But they did battle back to make a game of it and took the lead in the 4Q before fading late. Charlotte was actually down by 18 last night before coming back to win. The fact they had to play a game in between the two vs. Atlanta, last night no less, is an obvious disadvantage. I’m expecting the Hawks to roll here and improve to 5-0 ATS on the road this season. 10* Atlanta

10* Texas Tech (4:00 ET): Texas Tech remains one of the more talented teams in the country, but they really need to start covering some games. A failure to cover the 16.5-point spot vs. Kansas State earlier this week made it seven consecutive ATS losses for the Red Raiders, who come in at #19 in the country for Saturday’s tilt with Iowa State. This is certainly a game that the contingent from Lubbock should win as ISU is just 2-6 SU and coming off games vs. Baylor and Texas. So I’ll lay the points in this Big 12 matchup. 

Not sure what Iowa State did to the schedule markers, but this has been an absolutely brutal stretch of games for the Cyclones. As I just mentioned, in the past week they’ve had to take on both Baylor and Texas, a pair of Top 4 teams. They lost by 11 to Baylor and by 6 to Texas, so the ‘Clones were competitive and in fact covered the spread in both games. But what will they have left as they prepare for a third straight game against a top five defense in the country? Texas Tech makes you work at the offensive end and I’m just not sure ISU is gonna have much left in the tank here. 

Last season, Texas Tech swept the season series from Iowa State, winning by 20 and 30 points. So this is an opponent they’ve dominated in the past. I think it’s critical to note that while Texas Tech “only” won by 11 its last time out and Iowa State “only” lost by six its last time out, the margins were bigger for a substantial portion of those games. Iowa State has beaten only two teams this year: Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Jackson State. Some of that is due to the brutal schedule, but they did lose here in Ames to South Dakota State and were blown out (by 28) at Iowa. Texas Tech slams the door here. 10* Texas Tech

10* Charlotte (7:35 ET): The Hornets have been dreadful when favored thus far (0-3 STRAIGHT UP!), but they’ve been somewhat reliable when getting points, going 3-2 ATS and producing all of their SU wins in that role. The most recent win came Wednesday night when they went to Atlanta and beat a much improved Hawks team 102-94. They led by double digits almost the entire way (save for a big 4Q run by the Hawks) and were led by Gordon Hayward’s career-high 44 points. 

Meanwhile, New Orleans has also struggled in the role of favorite. They’ve lost two straight as chalk, falling here at home to Indiana and Oklahoma City. The latter saw them laying eight points to a Thunder team that simply is not very good. The Pelicans gave up 27 fast break points in the game, allowed OKC to make 19 three-pointers and trailed by as many as 14 (10 entering the 4Q). Because of Zion Williamson, there’s a lot of “hype” surrounding this team, but I don’t really think they’re “their yet.” 

It’s the Pelicans that find themselves favored (again) tonight, so I’m going to fade as I expect Charlotte to “stick around.” Something that surprises me is that the Pelicans are just 25th in offensive efficiency. This very well could turn out to be a low-scoring game, so that’s another reason to want to take the points. Then again, the Pelicans have allowed 111+ points in five of their previous seven contests. Charlotte has allowed that many just twice since the season opener. Going back to before the shutdown, the Hornets are 10-2-1 their L13 games as an underdog. 10* Charlotte

10* Northern Kentucky (7:00 ET): Seeing Cleveland State atop the Horizon League with a 6-0 record is not something I expected to see, especially after the Vikings were throttled 101-46 by Ohio U one month ago. In that game, CSU found itself on the wrong end of a record-setting 40-0 run (spanning both halves). That’s right; they gave up 40 consecutive points to the opponent without scoring one themselves! Since that time, the Vikings are 7-0 ATS and have won six in a row in league play, sweeping IPFW, Youngstown State and IUPUI. It’s a run that’s bound to come to an end and in the words of Neil Young, “tonight’s the night!” 

Northern Kentucky is off its own sweep of IPFW last week, winning those two home games by seven and two points. The Norse were expected to be one of the Horizon’s top teams this season (#3 in preseason poll) and have started conference play 3-1 SU. While they’ve yet to win a “true” road game in 2020-21, they’ve had great success here at CSU in the past, going 4-1 SU/ATS L5 visits. I was impressed that they were able to win their last game despite only SEVEN free throw attempts (made them all). One area where I expect NKU to improve tonight is their 3-point shooting as they are hitting just 28.4% from behind the arc thus far. 

Pegged for seventh in the preseason Horizon League poll, it is definitely a surprise to see Cleveland State in 1st place sporting a 6-0 SU/ATS record. The Vikings started the season outside the top 300 in my power ratings. Give them some credit, but two of the three teams they’ve swept are expected to be the bottom two in the league. Also, only one of the six victories has been by more than 10 points. The Vikings have been terrible for years, averaging just 11 wins per season since 2017-18! Trust me when I say that the better team is getting points here. 10* Northern Kentucky

10* Dallas (10:05 ET): These two teams finished 7th (Dallas) and 3rd (Denver) respectively in the Western Conference standings a season ago. But that’s quite misleading. It was the Mavericks who had a far better YTD point differential (+4.9 per game vs. +2.1 for Denver) and I was REALLY hoping that they’d be matched up in the 1st round of the playoffs, so I could fire away on Dallas. That didn’t happen though. What did happen is that Denver overcame TWO 3-1 series deficits to get to the Western Conference Finals while the Mavs went home after the 1st round.

For Denver to finish above Dallas last year, there had to be some “luck” involved and sure enough they had nine wins by three points or less and a Western Conference-high five wins in OT. That’s BEFORE the playoffs, mind you. Dallas was a league-worst 2-11 SU in games decided by three points or less, undercutting the fact they had the third most double digit wins in the conference. I’m not sugarcoating it one bit when I say the Mavs were a better team than the Nuggets last season. I believe they are going to be better this season. Now is their time to prove it. 

The Mavs are off a 113-100 win in Houston, which was much needed as they were off a loss in Chicago (no Doncic). Doncic returned with a triple double vs. the Rockets. Though just 3-4 SU right now, the Mavs have destroyed the Clippers (51-point win) and also beat Miami by 10. Denver was 1-4 before a home and home sweep against lowly Minnesota. They’ve already lost a couple of close games, so the expected regression in that area has taken hold. These teams met three times last season with Dallas winning twice and the loss was by one point. The underdog is the better team here. 10* Dallas

8* BYU (8:30 ET): So far, only one team (West Virginia) has been able to stay within single digits of #1 Gonzaga. It’s tough to find many flaws with the top-ranked team in the country as they’ve shot the ball at 50% or better in every game but WVU (were 49.3%) and the last six wins have all come by 23+ points. They even defeated Kansas and Iowa, two teams I consider to be Top 10 in the country, by double digits. But eventually the Zags are due for an “off-night.” All we need here is BYU to stay within 17 points, which I believe is very plausible. 

BYU beat Gonzaga last February by 13 points. They did it by holding the Zags to 5 of 25 shooting from 3-point range. Now that game was played in Provo, but note the Cougars have won both of their road games this season and those were not “easy” games at Utah State and San Diego State. The Cougars have played just one bad game all year and that was against USC on December 1st. Other than that, their only loss was by just four points to Boise State. They are more than capable of “hanging” with Gonzaga tonight. 

The win over San Diego State marked the only other time previous to this that BYU was an underdog this season. They were even favored in the USC game, which should tell you that this is a pretty talented team. Tonight is the start of a brutal stretch of three road games (at St Mary’s and San Francisco next week), so BYU does not want to start their 2021 with a blowout loss. They’ve had two weeks to prepare for this game, so you have to expect that they’re ready for the challenge. I don’t expect them to win, but they will keep it close. Take the points. 8* BYU

10* Over Montana State/Northern Colorado (8:30 ET): Here’s an “off the radar” game that quickly caught my attention. Even though Northern Colorado has gone Under in each of its last five games, I think the total is too low here. This will be the first of two meetings with Montana State over the next three days and tonight is also Montana State’s Big Sky opener. Take the Over. 

So far, Montana State has been real “feast or famine” on the offensive end of the floor. They have three games with more than 90 points scored and two with under 60 points scored. While two of the three strong efforts came at home against non-DI teams, the Bobcats did manage to score 91 in a season-opening win at UNLV. One area I definitely see improving is the Bobcats’ 43.2% shooting from INSIDE the 3-point line. That number is just awful and HAS to improve. They do shoot pretty well from three-point range (37.5%) so I see no reason why they can’t improve the shooting when closer to the basket. 

Northern Colorado has failed to reach 70 points in any of its last five games, a stretch which has seen them shoot very poorly as well. Again, you’ve got to expect improvement in that department. The Over is a perfect 4-0 the L4 times Montana State has been an underdog and a perfect 6-0 the L6 times they’ve been off a SU win. They scored 96 points in their previous game, a win over Montana Western on New Year’s Day. 10* Over Montana State/Northern Colorado

8* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): The Bearcats have lost five in a row, the last four all coming as favorites. They are 1-7 ATS on the season (2-6 SU). So clearly they are underperforming. But all of their losses have come vs. teams in the top 100 of my power rankings. Three of the last four have been by five points or less. So I relish the opportunity to take this team as an underdog, something that they’ve been only one other team this season (vs. Tennessee). The Bearcats have played a much more difficult schedule than SMU to this point, so I view the respective won-loss records to be very misleading (which is reflected in the spread). 

SMU just suffered its first loss of the year and it came here at home, 74-60 to Houston. Now Houston is obviously a very good team. But the Cougars also happened to be the first “good” team SMU had faced all season. The only other game they’ve played that was expected to be competitive was at Dayton, which they won by just two points. 

Two things that HAVE to improve for Cincinnati here are their 3-point shooting (just 26% on the year) and the amount of times they turn the ball over (21.1% of all possessions). One would think that those numbers can ONLY get better. The Bearcats have beaten SMU seven straight times by an average of 13 PPG, so this is a matchup they’ve definitely done well with in the past. I see no reason why Cincy should be struggling as much as they are. They were competitive against everyone except Georgia (lost by 15 on the road) and SMU’s 6-1 SU record just seems phony. Take the points. 8* Cincinnati

10* Under Pistons/Bucks (8:05 ET): These teams just played on Monday. The Bucks won that game 125-115, led by Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 43 points. The team shot a somewhat ridiculous 57% for the game as well. Though Milwaukee still boasts the most efficient offense in the league, it has not been the same dominant start we’ve seen the previous two seasons. They come in at just 4-3, though all three losses were on the road. It should be another win tonight, but it won’t be as high-scoring.

Not only did Milwaukee shoot 57% from the floor on Monday, but the teams combined to go 31 of 74 from 3-point range. That almost certainly will NOT be happening again. Detroit is a team I project to finish near the bottom of the league offensively. So far they’ve been a bit better than expected, though they are shooting just 43.4% overall. It’s the defensive issues that must be fixed if they are to remain competitive. Already the Pistons have allowed 120+ points four times, though one of the games went to double overtime. 

The O/U line for tonight did open a few points higher than the closing number from Monday, so right away there’s a bit of value to be had. The Pistons are 20-8 Under the L3 seasons, on the road, when the total is 220 or higher. Meanwhile, the Under is 11-5 for the Bucks when they are off a SU win. The Bucks have defended quite well at home so far, allowing an overall shooting percentage of 40.5% and a 3-pt % of 29.7. Some familiarity and obvious decreases in shooting percentage should lead to an easy Under here. 10* Under Pistons/Bucks

8* Boston (7:35 ET): It’s a rematch of last season’s Eastern Conference Finals tonight on ESPN with the Heat hosting the Celtics. Coming up short in that series should still be fresh in the minds of the Celtics being that it was less than three months ago. The unprecedented short turnaround between seasons is something to keep in mind when looking at the Heat as their season didn’t end until mid-October. They’ve gotten off to a bit of a “slow” start, alternating losses and wins through the first six games.

If that pattern holds for Miami, then tonight will be a loss. They are coming off a 118-90 win over a bad Oklahoma City team (as 9-pt chalk) Monday night. But they are 0-2 SU/ATS when coming off a win this season, those losses coming by 47 (to Milwaukee) and by 10 (at Dallas). Incredibly, the Heat have had a different starting lineup in every game so far, so things are far from “settled” with this group right now. While all three wins have come here at home, it’s pretty difficult to look past the inconsistency we’ve seen from the Heat thus far. 

Boston turned in its own impressive win Monday, beating the Raptors 126-114 as a six-point dog. They were led by Jayson Tatum’s 40 points. This will be the Celtics’ fourth straight road game and third in four nights. But obviously, the revenge factor should counteract any “disadvantage” that situation presents. I expect them to be the far more motivated team Wednesday night and it would be even better if Marcus Smart returns from a thumb injury. The Celtics were favored in every game in the ECF, remember. They are 3-1 ATS as underdogs this season and 29-18 ATS the L3 seasons. 8* Boston

10* UNC Greensboro (7:00 ET): I think it’s fair to say that most expect Furman to be the pace setter in the underrated SoCon this season. This was a strong conference last year and the teams we’ll be focusing in on today are likely competing for “who’s #2” (behind Furman). We’ve got UNC Greensboro, who is off an upset loss to East Tenn State (who was another good team from this conference LY) visiting Wofford. This is a very significant game for the visitors, not just because of the upset loss Saturday, but also because they have had problems beating Wofford in the past. I think they do so here. Take the points.

The previous two seasons have seen Wofford go 5-0 ATS, 4-1 SU against UNCG, which includes a win in the 2019 SoCon Tournament They are 7-1 ATS the L8 meetings as well. However, the majority of those games were close. Four were decided by four points or less and both games last year went into OT. UNCG ended its four-game losing streak to Wofford with an 83-79 win in the most recent meeting, but obviously did not cover as 9-point chalk. 

I think that a key to handicapping this matchup is the expectation that we will see a reversal of “shooting fortunes” from each team’s last game. UNC Greensboro shot a dreadful 32.8% from the floor in the loss to ETSU, a game they were favored to win by 7.5 points (lost 71-61). Led by Isaiah Miller, arguably the best player in the SoCon, I expect a much better effort on the offensive end tonight from the Spartans. Meanwhile, I don’t think there’s any chance Wofford matches the 63.3% shooting we saw against Samford on Sunday. UNCG is simply better at the defensive end. 10* UNC Greensboro

8* Minnesota (9:00 ET): Things couldn’t be going much worse for the T’wolves right now as they’ve lost four straight - by a combined 95 points! Karl-Anthony Towns is injured and won’t play again tonight as the team finishes off a home and home with Denver. The Nuggets won 124-109 in Minnesota Sunday night, getting key contributions from Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and most surprisingly, Facundo Campazzo. But I don’t believe the team can count on shooting 42% from three-point range again, like they did the other night.

Before the win in Minnesota, the Nuggets had gotten off to a very disappointing 1-4 SU start to their season. This is a team that has defied the odds a bit the L2 seasons, winning a lot of close games, not to mention rallying from a PAIR of 3-1 series deficits in last year’s playoff run. I do NOT see them finishing as high in the Western Conference standings this year. Considering they’ve lost three of four home games, the Nuggets are far from a safe bet in this price range. Defensively, they are dead last in efficiency in the entire NBA. 

Minnesota really needs an inspired effort tonight. Not just because of the four-game losing streak. They’ve also lost nine in a row to Denver going back to 2018. They actually shot the ball well Sunday, making more than 51% of their field goal attempts, but it was from behind the arc where they struggled. They made only 10 of 31 3PA and with Denver making nine more 3PA, that was the difference in the ball game. Look for that discrepancy to be a lot tighter tonight and the T’wolves to stay within the double digit spread. 8* Minnesota

10* Michigan State (9:00 ET): Michigan State became drastically overrated because of a win over Duke (another overrated team) on December 1st. That was the last time they’ve covered a spread! It’s seven straight ATS losses for the Spartans heading into tonight’s home game vs. Rutgers. While I do think Sparty remains overrated at #23 in the country, the same can be said for Rutgers at #15 and I think this is where Tom Izzo’s team “gets back on track” ATS. They did just win at Nebraska Saturday, 84-77, as 9.5-pt favorites. 

I had MSU when they beat Duke back on 12/1. It was the start of this incredible 87-55-2 run I’m on entering Tuesday. You wouldn’t have known the Spartans were overrated by that performance, which saw them up double digits most of the 2H en route to a 75-69 “upset” in Durham. They did have three more “comfortable” wins after beating Duke, but were favored by 23 or more in all three. That partly explains the ATS skid. But opening Big 10 play at 0-3 was a “head-turner,” even though two of the losses were on the road and the other game was played on Christmas. I just can’t see them losing tonight at the Breslin Center though. 

Rutgers is off a 2-point home loss to Iowa, which no doubt took something out of them. While the Scarlet Knights did beat Illinois earlier in the year, that was at home. Their last road game resulted in a 12-point loss to Ohio State. That’s the only loss besides Iowa, but I can’t look past what a challenging spot this is as they are back on the road facing a second straight Top 25 team. Michigan State was up 17 on Saturday, so don’t let the single digit MOV fool you and they are 9-0 against Rutgers since becoming conference rivals. 10* Michigan State

8* Texas (8:00 ET): I suppose you could say this is a “letdown spot” for Texas coming off their incredibly impressive dismantling of #6 Kansas over the weekend. The Longhorns won in Lawrence, 84-59 as a 4.5-point dog, which has to be placed among the very best single-game performances by any team so far in this College Basketball season. It was the second largest road win over an AP Top 5 team in HISTORY and vaulted the 8-1 Longhorns into the top five themselves. The good news for tonight is that they don’t have to be nearly as good against an Iowa State team that’s in a trick spot itself. 

Iowa State just played Baylor over the weekend, so the schedule makers are doing them no favors by sending them to Austin right after that matchup. I was a little surprised the Cyclones were able to stay within the number against #2 Baylor, losing only 76-55 as a 15.5-point dog. But the game was in Ames. ISU is the only winless team in conference play in the Big 12. They are 0-3 and let’s not forget how they were obliterated by Iowa on the road, losing by 28. Their only win in the L6 games came against Jackson State. 

Considering Baylor didn’t even play its best game and still beat ISU by 11 on the road, I see no reason why Texas doesn’t prevail by double digits here in Austin. My own power ratings have this spread much higher, at about 17 points. The Longhorns probably are thinking “payback” here after they were blown out in Ames (lost by 29) last season. Texas showed that it is one of the best defensive teams in the country (#4 in efficiency) on Saturday and Iowa State has been held to 65 points or less by each of its previous four opponents. This one could get ugly in a hurry. 8* Texas

9* Over Kings/Warriors (10:05 ET): Steph Curry went off for a career-high 62 points last night in a 137-122 win against Portland. As a team, the Warriors shot 55% from the floor. Neither Curry nor the team will likely be able to match that kind of offensive production here tonight, but they shouldn’t have to for this matchup with the Kings to still go Over the total. Neither of these teams are very good defensively and with Sacramento likely to bounce back from a poor shooting effort in its last game, look for more points than expected in this one. 

Curry’s performance was much needed for a Warriors team that has not been all that impressive in the early going. Lost in the virtuoso shooting effort though was the fact last night marked the fifth time in six games that the Dubs allowed at least 122 points. The only opponent they’ve been able to hold under that number was Detroit, who projects to be the worst offensive team in the league this season. The Dubs are currently 26th in defensive efficiency and they are NOT going to fix this issue when playing for a third time in four nights. 

Sacramento is off its worst shooting game of the season so far as they made only 38.9% in a 102-94 loss to the Rockets on Saturday (just 9 of 28 from three-point range). That was their second straight loss in Houston following an impressive 3-1 start. They’ve gotten to 119 points in half their games. Look for the Kings to regain their shooting touch tonight against the defensively inept Warriors, but also be on the lookout for Curry, who has averaged a stellar 30.3 PPG in his career when coming off a 50+ point effort. 9* Over Kings/Warriors

8* Under Wyoming/Fresno State (9:00 ET): Honestly, I sort of think the wrong team may be favored here. Wyoming just won here, 78-74, on Saturday and is now 7-1 on the season. Their only loss came by two points to Texas Southern in the second game of the season. But beating the same opponent on the road twice in three days is a pretty tall order and the Cowboys were pretty lucky to win here the other night. So I’m looking at the Under, something that hasn’t cashed a lot in Wyoming games this season, but will tonight. 

That lone Wyoming loss saw them blow a 19-point halftime lead in Laramie, so this is a team that probably “should” still be undefeated. The Over is 6-1 their last seven games, but they have not shot the ball all that well nor have they defended that poorly. Their tempo isn’t that fast. They have shot 44% from three-point range in three “true” road games though and that’s a number that’s due to come down. They were 12 of 30 from behind the arc Saturday and also 22 of 26 from the free throw line. Don’t look for them to match those kinds of numbers tonight though. 

It was just a 33-31 game at halftime when these teams played Saturday before the scoring really picked up in the second half. Fresno State actually shot much better overall than Wyoming, but was undone by a lack of three-point shooting (just 5 of 16) and by going just 15 of 22 from the FT line. There were a LOT of free throws made in the final six minutes Saturday, taking a game which looked like a sure Under (game was 58-57 with 6:43 left) to an Over. FSU is 7-3 Under when playing with revenge for a home loss. 8* Under Wyoming/Fresno State

10* LA Clippers (8:05 ET): I have a TON of respect for the 5-1 Suns, but this feels like an opportunity to “sell high” on them. Right now, I’ve got Phoenix rated third among all Western Conference teams, but tonight sees them facing one of the two teams above them, that being the Clippers, who are off a loss and thus in no mood to “fool around.” Prior to losing at Utah on New Year’s Day, the Clips only other previous defeat was that head-scratching effort against Dallas. They bounced back from that with a 23-point win in Minnesota. 

Going back to the bubble, Phoenix has now gone a simply amazing 13-1 SU/ATS their L14 games. The only loss & non-cover came in the second game of this season when they fell 106-103 in Sacramento. Since then, it’s been four more victories with the most recent being at Denver (106-103). This will be the third consecutive game they come in as the underdog, pretty remarkable when you consider what they’re doing, but I just can’t see another “upset” here against the best team they will have faced to date.

It was a bad shooting night for the Clippers in Utah (just 38.8%) despite the return of Kawhi Leonard to the lineup after he’d missed the two previous games. It wasn’t “all bad” for Leonard however as he matched a career-high with 16 rebounds against the Jazz, despite wearing a face mask. Look for LA to work the ball inside here against the Suns. The Clippers aren’t just 1-0 SU/ATS off a loss this season, they are 21-8 SU their L29 off an outright loss as a favorite. The Suns can’t keep winning/covering forever, right? 10* LA Clippers

10* So Illinois (6:00 ET): Drake looks to continue its improbable start to the season here as it hosts Southern Illinois Sunday night in a battle of Missouri Valley heavyweights. The Bulldogs are not only 11-0 SU, but also 9-0 against the spread! They opened conference play by sweeping a pair of road games at Larry Bird’s alma mater (Indiana State), winning by 18 and 7. This will be the first of two games in two days vs. SIU and you can bet Drake will be motivated since they lost both games to the Salukis last season. 

Southern Illinois is no slouch in its own right. They too were unbeaten heading into their last game, which turned out to be a shocking 84-72 loss to Evansville in Carbondale. The Salukis were eight-point favorites in that one having just defeated the Purple Aces the day before. This team covered the spread each of its first five tries this season and that includes outright wins over Murray State and Butler, the only other two times they’ve been an underdog in 2020-21. They won here as a 6-point dog, 79-72, a year ago. 

There is no doubt that Drake is going to be fired up for this double revenge spot, however, eventually the Bulldogs’ improbable ATS run has to come to a halt. Not only are they 9-0 ATS this season, they are 47-26 ATS the L3 seasons! Talk about making the oddsmakers look bad! You just don’t see an ATS record like that very often and the Bulldogs are even 30-12 ATS L42 as a favorite. But Southern Illinois is as tough an opponent as they will have faced so far this season and I’m taking the points with an angry dog off a loss. The Salukis led that last game at the half before Evansville caught fire from three-point range. Meanwhile, in their last game, Drake actually went into the break trailing Indiana State. 10* So Illinois

10* Under Cavaliers/Hawks (7:35 ET): This will be the second time (this season) that I’m playing the Cavs Under the total. The first was Tuesday’s game against the Knicks. Believe it or not, Cleveland actually came into that game at 3-0. But I warned you about buying into them and sure enough they dropped that game 95-86 (as a 3.5-pt favorite), making for an easy Under (total closed at 216). The Cavs’ predictable downfall then continued on New Year’s Eve with a 119-99 loss at Indiana, their third game in a row to go Under.

Many believed that this young Hawks team could surprise in the Eastern Conference this season and so far they’ve proven to be worthy of the “hype.” Last night saw them prevail in Brooklyn, holding the Nets to just 96 points on 40.7% shooting, including 7 of 37 from three-point range. Atlanta is now 4-1 SU with the only loss coming in the first of the two games at Brooklyn and they actually blew a 4Q in that one. Making the record look even more impressive is the fact the Hawks have played only one home game thus far.

Hawks’ games have generally been high-scoring thus far, but defensively they have held three of the first five opponents below 41.5% shooting. Offensively, I don’t think they are going to be able to match last night’s blistering 16 of 39 three-point shooting. Cleveland has actually played surprisingly decent defense in the early going (well, not vs. Indiana), posting a top five efficiency rating on that end of the floor. However, in three of their last four games the Cavs have been held to 101 pts or less in regulation. Both of these teams are dealing with multiple injuries in the early part of the season. 10* Under Cavaliers/Hawks

10* UT Arlington (5:00 ET): This is an immediate rematch from yesterday, a situation we’re going to be seeing plenty of this College Hoops season. Little Rock prevailed on Friday, winning 102-93 as four-point chalk. In what was one of the most insane things I have ever witnessed, the Trojans shot 70% from the floor including 9 of 14 from three-point range. Three months from now, my guess is that we’ll still be able to call that game Little Rock’s best offensive effort of the season. I’m taking the points with the revenge-minded underdog here. 

Now UT Arlington obviously needs to shore things up defensively today. The good news is that Little Rock hardly attempted a high volume of threes yesterday. The Trojans went into Friday averaging just six makes per game from behind the arc, so don’t expect them to go wild from deep again here. Nor can they possibly match yesterday’s overall shooting effort. The key is to try and hold Little Rock under 72 points, which - despite what happened yday - is doable. UT Arlington is 4-0 SU this season when holding the opposition under 72 points. 

The Mavericks are a good three-point shooting team as they are making about 10 per game, which places them second best among Sun Belt teams. In particular, keep an eye out for both Wells and Griffin, the team’s most lethal marksmen from behind the arc. This is a really big game for UT Arlington, not just because they are seeking to avoid an 0-2 start in conference play, but also they are 0-5 SU their L5 visits to Little Rock. I thought they might be the right side going into yday and will back them here today. 10* UT Arlington

8* Arkansas (12:00 ET): So this is a battle of my most overrated (Missouri) and underrated (Arkansas) teams in the country. The road team comes in ranked #12 while the home team is unranked. My own personal power ratings say it should be just the opposite. That’s something that does not happen very often. Sure enough, I just cashed Arkansas in their first road game of the season (at Auburn) Wednesday. That same night I faded Mizzou as they got blown out (at home) by Tennessee for their first loss of the season. Now I can take advantage of the power rating discrepancies on both teams in the same game! 

It speaks volumes that an unranked team would be favored over #12, even at home. Of course, I’m not surprised as I heavily touted Arkansas earlier in the week. The Razorbacks are 9-0 SU with an average margin of victory approaching 27 PPG. Every win this season has been by double digits. My power ratings call them a Top 15 team in the country. They are a senior-laden team that continues to get the job done defensively, allowing an opposing field goal percentage of just 37.7. Of course, the Hogs are pretty good at the offensive end as well with four straight games of 85 or more points. 

Meanwhile, Missouri has had trouble scoring in B2B games. Even before getting held to just 53 by Tennessee, the Tigers could only muster 54 in a nail-biter over Bradley (won that game by 1 point). Both those games were in Columbia. This will be just the 2nd “true” road game for the Tigers and easily the toughest yet. When these teams met here in Fayetteville last season, the Razorbacks held Mizzou to just 4 of 21 shooting from three-point range. The Tigers’ 3-pt shooting has gotten no better this year (only 27.3%!) and Arkansas just allowed Auburn to shoot better than 50% from behind the arc and still won by 12. Mizzou is getting too much credit for its upset of Illinois. They were picked to finish 10th in the SEC in the preseason poll. 8* Arkansas

10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): The Clippers have that very embarrassing loss to Dallas on their resume, but are 4-0 otherwise. They’ve looked very good in those four wins, the last two both coming by 23 point margins. They’ve also won on the road against the Lakers and Nuggets. Utah is a curious 0-2 SU at home thus far as they just lost here to Phoenix last night, 106-95. The Jazz are very lucky that they’re not coming into this game on a three-game losing streak as they managed to beat OKC 110-109 three days before losing to the Suns.

If you recall, I faded Utah when it hosted Minnesota the day after Christmas. That ended up being a 116-111 loss (for the Jazz) as 9.5-point favorites with them trailing most of the way. Then came the 1-point win at OKC, another game they trailed for a good portion of the game (GW shot came w/ 7 secs remaining). Last night vs. Phoenix, the Jazz just “didn’t have it” as they trailed the entirety of the final three quarters. Playing without rest against an opponent the caliber of the Clippers is a really tough spot for New Year’s Day. 

The Clips have lost five in a row here in Salt Lake City, a streak that dates back to 2017. So they should come in properly motivated. Remember that Kawhi Leonard missed the 51-point loss to Dallas, but is now back. He had 28 points in a 128-105 win over Portland on Wednesday night. Leonard is one of five double digit scorers right now for LA, another being Paul George, who went for 23-10-7 against Portland. George has led the team in scoring in three of the five games thus far. This line is a steal. 10* LA Clippers

10* Wright State (7:00 ET): What a wild season Oakland (MI) has had. The Golden Grizzlies opened by losing their first nine games. But then they were fortunate enough to run into in-state rival Detroit Mercy right before the New Year. They won both games there, 77-75 as a 4-point underdog and 83-80 as a three-point underdog. Only one Oakland game this season has stayed Under (1st one vs. Detroit) and I had the Under in that one, which cashed despite the game going into overtime. Quietly, Oakland has covered seven of its last nine, though you should be aware that this very much remains a bad team. 

Wright State is one of the perennial favorites in the Horizon League and they come into the New Year riding a six-game win streak. They too swept Detroit Mercy on the road, winning those games by 23 and 13 points. Back home, the Raiders then swept Green Bay, winning both of those games by double digits as well. In fact, all six WSU wins this season have been of the double digit variety. Tonight certainly seems like quite the favorable matchup as they’ve won and covered seven straight against Oakland, six of those wins coming by 12 points or greater. 

Not sure if it’s the fact Oakland is off B2B wins or that they’ve been covering more often than not lately, but this line seems awfully low. My own power ratings project this to be yet another “safe” double digit victory for the Raiders. This is a team that’s been able to score at least 85 points in four of its last five contests. They are tops in the Horizon League in scoring. Oakland has not shot the ball well all year long and they don’t exactly play quality defense either. Prior to facing Detroit, the Grizzlies had not topped 73 (points) in any game. They are allowing an average of 85.5 PPG. 10* Wright State

10* Boise State (8:30 ET): Those who have followed my picks through the years know it’s quite “unlike me” to play a road favorite of this size (in any sport). But there are always exceptions to be made and in this particular instance we will be going against one of the worst teams in all of College Basketball, San Jose State. Factoring out some of the smaller conferences you may not follow, it could be argued that SJSU is the worst team in a “major” conference. In terms of teams whose games are always lined, I’d say they ARE the worst. They are 0-4 SU/ATS so far vs. D-I teams with three of those losses coming by 33+ points. 

Boise State opened Mountain West play by sweeping a couple games from New Mexico. Neither game was close as the Broncos won by a combined 61 points! Overall, BSU has won six straight since suffering a 10-point loss in the opener to a very good Houston team. That includes an upset, on the road, of BYU where the Broncos were getting 3.5 from the oddsmakers. I expect tonight’s game to go very much along the lines of the pair vs UNM last week where Boise St shot almost 60% from the field! 

This really is a total mismatch. Boise State has won the previous seven meetings by an average of 22 PPG. The last five have all been decided by at least 18 points with four of them coming by 23 or more. The Broncos are #14 in the country in terms of points allowed per game, giving up only 58.0. San Jose State is allowing a frightening 88.4 PPG so far while averaging only 66.6 itself. Led by Derrick Alston Jr, the visitors can name the score tonight and they’ll head into 2021 off a very comfortable win (by the way, they get to play SJSU again on Saturday). 10* Boise State

10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Oklahoma City somewhat defied expectations last year, making the playoffs (as a 5-seed) and going a league-best 47-31-1 ATS. But I don’t see them doing that in 2020-21 as they project to be the worst team in the entire Western Conference. They opened with two close games, beating Charlotte (who is bad) by two and losing to Utah by one. Then came an 11-point home loss to Orlando two nights ago. Tonight marks the 2nd time in the last 3 games that the Thunder will host a team they swept last season. While they were fortunate enough to cover against Utah, I don’t see that happening here.

New Orleans arrives in OKC on a 3-game ATS losing skid. They did defeat San Antonio by three during that time, but also suffered road losses to Miami and Phoenix and neither of those games were particularly close. But remember the Pelicans did open the season with a win “at Toronto” (game actually played in Tampa). I think the Pelicans, led by Zion Williamson, are going to be a top 7-8 team in the West this season and this is a game they really should win. 

When you consider that New Orleans has been favored only one time this year, their 2-2 start isn’t all that bad. Something I’m looking for tonight is the Pelicans to show improvement from behind the arc. They’ve made only 21 percent of their 3-point attempts in the L3 games, a big reason why they’ve failed to break 100 points every time. But thankfully OKC’s defensive numbers have worsened with each game and they let Utah and Orlando combine to shoot better than 50% from the floor. 10* New Orleans

8* Tennessee (9:00 ET): I talk about my own personal power ratings a lot. Here they are quite instructive as they very much agree with the fact that Tennessee deserves to be ranked among the top seven teams in the country. However, they vehemently disagree with the pollsters assessment of Missouri (who is ranked #12) as I’ve got them comfortably OUTSIDE the top 25. Thus, it makes perfect sense to lay the short number with the Volunteers in this battle of unbeaten SEC teams Wednesday night.

With conference play set to commence tonight, we’re going to learn a lot about the SEC in the coming weeks. Everyone knows about Kentucky’s struggles. But you’ve got three unbeaten teams (Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri) that are viewed as question marks. Personally, I think Arkansas is the 2nd best team in the conference, not Missouri. But there’s no disputing the fact that Tennessee looks every bit the part of the favorite to win the league in 2020-21. The Vols have smashed their first six opponents, winning by an average of 28.1 PPG. 

Tennessee has covered five of its six games, the lone exception being the last game when they were -33.5 vs. USC Upstate and won by 20. The competition has not exactly been “fierce” and critics will point to the fact Missouri has already beaten Illinois here in Columbia as a “sign” they can get it done tonight. But the Tigers’ wins have been a lot closer (than Tennessee’s) this season and they almost lost to Bradley (won 54-53) last week. A big key here is that UT doesn’t turn the ball over much while Mizzou forces very few turnovers. The Vols are also #2 in the country right now in scoring defense. 8* Tennessee

8* San Antonio (8:35 ET): Both the Lakers and Spurs are off losses here. In each instance, the loss came at home and was on the second night of a back to back. But because the Lakers have already successfully bounced back from one defeat this year, they are being priced as a comfortable favorite Weds night. (They’re also “the Lakers.”) But San Antonio has had one extra day off compared to the Lakers and I think they come out “ready to play” on their home floor. Take the points. 

The Lakers’ loss was to Portland Monday night, 115-107 as a six-point favorite. They led going into the 4Q but pretty much fell apart down the stretch. LeBron scored a team-high 29 points, but didn’t get much help outside of Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroder. Bench players tend to struggle more so on the road, so I’m not looking for a heavy increase in production there. I think it’s also imperative to note LA just won the NBA Finals two months ago and they are the team most affected by the unprecedented short turnaround between seasons. 

Even though they are off a 98-95 loss to New Orleans, the Spurs are 3-0 ATS so far. They covered as 4.5-point underdogs down in the Big Easy and had a chance to tie on the final shot of regulation. Previously they defeated Toronto and Memphis. I don’t think I can ever remember a San Antonio team with lower expectations than this one, at least during the Gregg Popovich era. That means we’re probably going to get some good value, at least early on in the season. They are 44-34 ATS as underdogs in the L3 seasons. 8* San Antonio

10* Arkansas (7:00 ET): An unbeaten team playing its first “true” road game is normally something I would tend to fade, but not here as I feel 8-0 Arkansas is one of the more underrated teams in the country. The Razorbacks are not ranked, but my own personal power ratings say they are among the 20 best teams in the country right now. They’ve got double revenge on the mind tonight as they visit 6-2 Auburn, who won last season’s only meeting 79-76 in overtime (in Fayetteville). The Hogs aren’t ready to lose yet! 

Auburn has played well at home so far (4-0, +19.0 PPG) but they’ve hardly faced a “murderer’s row.” South Alabama, Texas Southern, Troy and Appalachian State were the victims and the Tigers came in as DD favorites for all four games. It’s quite the opposite here as they get ready for their toughest game since a blowout loss to Gonzaga last month. Auburn is a young team with three freshmen accounting for roughly half the team’s scoring this year. Turning the ball over has been an issue, though so far it’s been alleviated by an ability to clean up on the offensive glass.

Arkansas is a much more veteran team than Auburn with four seniors doing the majority of their scoring. This is a better defensive team than Auburn as the Razorbacks are #32 in the country in defensive efficiency. Opponents have shot just 41.2% from INSIDE the arc and 27.5% from three-point range. Auburn shoots a high volume of threes, but does not make many (29.2%). Arkansas is also even better on the offensive glass than Auburn and doesn’t turn the ball over nearly as much (only 15.6% of total possessions). They are simply better and should be a bigger favorite here. 10* Arkansas

10* Over Ole Miss/Alabama (9:00 ET): All six Ole Miss games have stayed Under this year, which is quite the streak to start a season. The Rebels are holding the opposition to just 52.3 PPG, but look at who they’ve played: Jackson State, UNC Wilmington, Central Arkansas, Middle Tenn, Tenn-Martin to name a few. Tonight they head to Tuscaloosa to face an Alabama team that’s averaging almost 80 PPG. Look for this to be the first time Ole Miss goes Over the total this season. 

The Crimson Tide’s scoring average would be even better if not for a “clunker” against Clemson on December 12th where they finished with just 56 points. They’ve gone over 80 in all five wins and they are slight favorites here. They haven’t played since last Tuesday, which was an 85-69 win over East Tenn State. While that was a game they were expected to win by DD, they’ve also put up 80+ against the likes of Furman (who is very good), UNLV and Providence. On the flip side, the Tide have given up 71+ points five times already.

Ole Miss scored a season-high 90 points in their most recent game, which was last Tuesday vs. Tenn Martin. Still the game didn’t go Over as they allowed just 43 points against a very bad team. Something that sticks out to me is that neither of these SEC teams have shot the ball very well from three-point range thus far. Ole Miss is down at 28.8% while Bama is at 30.2%. Look for that to change tonight. In terms of adjusted tempo, Alabama is in the top 30 nationally. They are 23-13 Over in all home games the L3 seasons. 10* Over Ole Miss/Alabama

10* Under Knicks/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): The Cavs are a shocking 3-0 with all three victories coming as underdogs. But when you consider they were dogs to the likes of Charlotte (at home!) and Detroit, that record isn’t as impressive as it looks. I will give them credit for the win Sunday as they buried Philadelphia 118-94. That was by far their best defensive effort of the season, at least in terms of points allowed, though they did hold the Pistons to an even lower shooting percentage (40.8) the night prior. The only reason that game ended up being so high scoring (128-119) is because it went to double overtime.

The relatively easy early-season schedule for the Cavs will continue Tuesday as they host the Knicks. Cleveland is favored, so there’s a real legit shot they start the season 4-0! But New York is coming off a shocking 20-point win over Milwaukee where it scored 130 points! The odds of NY scoring that many again here range from slim to none. They are 12-4 Under coming off a game where they scored 130+ points and 18-6 Under coming off a SU win as a dog. While they shot 54.1% against the Bucks, they were at just 38.6% the game before (vs. Philadelphia) and finished with only 89 points. They scored only 107 points in the opener, a loss to Indiana.

Both these teams may be coming off impressive victories, but I still anticipate they’ll each finish near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings this year. As for who wins tonight, that’s anyone’s guess, but I like the game to finish Under the total. We’ve got the Knicks’ trends listed above, plus it’s a virtual lock that the Cavs’ offensive production from the first three games (122.3 PPG!) takes a downturn. The Under is 17-5 in the Cavs’ last 22 games following a double digit win. 10* Under Knicks/Cavaliers

10* Colorado (9:30 ET): We’ve got two 6-1 teams from the Pac 12 here, although recent form has been quite different for Colorado and Arizona. The Buffaloes, whose only loss came to Tennessee (a top 10 team), have won four in a row and all four wins have been by double digits. Arizona’s only loss came in the Pac 12 opener (78-75 at Stanford) and they’ve now failed to cover three straight following a closer than expected call last week vs. Montana (won by only 6 as 15-point chalk).

This game was originally going to be played on December 2nd, but got postponed due to COVID. While neither of these teams come in ranked, my own personal power ratings say Colorado should be and that they are a top 15 team in the country! Even in Tucson, I feel the Buffaloes should be favored. Holding Tennessee (who averages over 80 PPG) to just 57 is a pretty significant achievement as far as I’m concerned. They are top 25 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency and are pretty good at forcing their opponents to turn the ball over. 

Arizona actually trailed Montana by seven at halftime last Tuesday. That’s not a good sign. While the Wildcats have always been a strong home team, they don’t have anything resembling a quality win this year and I barely consider them to be a top 50 team. They have lived at the FT line this season (9th most attempts in D-I), but Colorado doesn’t foul all that much and ranks 30th in keeping opponents OFF the FT line. Arizona has gotten 43% of its scoring this season from two freshmen and that seems unsustainable. Keep an eye on Colorado’s senior guard McKinley Wright IV. The home team has won 10 in a row in this Pac 12 rivalry (oddity!) but this is the Buffs’ chance to make a statement on the road. 10* Colorado

10* Utah (8:05 ET): The Jazz were embarrassed Saturday night on their home floor, losing outright (as 9.5-point chalk) to Minnesota. I remember the game well as I had the T’wolves plus the points. The Jazz trailed by as many as 17 before making a game of it late. Their inability to defend the three-point line in the 1st half is what did them in as they allowed Minnesota to shoot 55% from deep and make 11 3PA before halftime. It was a far cry from the Jazz’s first game when they went to Portland and won by 20. 

Now it’s back to divisional play as Utah heads to Oklahoma City. The Thunder have played only one game thus far and it was a 109-107 win at Charlotte as three-point underdogs. Their first game (vs. Houston) was called off due to COVID-19. As a reminder, the Hornets aren’t going to be very good this season. Nor will the Thunder, who have fully entered the rebuilding stage. In fact, I project them to finish with the worst record in the Western Conference this season. It’s a far cry from the Durant-Westbrook-Harden days. 

Now Utah has struggled w/ OKC the last couple years, going only 1-6 SU and ATS against them. But this is a much different Thunder team they’ll be facing, even compared to the one that beat them in the bubble (110-94) last August. The Thunder bring back just five players from last season and guard Ty Jerome is injured (day to day). Again, even though I faded them on Saturday, writing off Utah after one bad game would be a mistake. Winning by 20 in Portland was no small feat and I like how they are shooting more threes this season. They held Damian Lillard scoreless in the first half in the opener! 10* Utah

8* Indiana State (5:00 ET): The fact these teams are playing for the second time in as many days is something you’re going to see a lot more of this College Hoops season. Yesterday, Drake turned in a huge second half performance to win here in Terre Haute, 81-63 as a three-point favorite. The Bulldogs are now not only 10-0 SU, but a remarkable 8-0 ATS. Full disclosure - I had Indiana State yday, a rare misfire, but it’s certainly worth noting that it was a one-point game at halftime. In a unique “do-over” opportunity, I see Larry Bird’s alma mater ending Drake’s unbeaten run on Monday. 

Every one of Drake’s 10 victories this year has been by double digits. So give them credit. However, as I said in yday’s analysis, the schedule has been weak thus far with two non-DI opponents and just three “true” road games (yday being the 3rd). It was a tie game early in the 2H Sunday when the Bulldogs went on a 9-0 run to seize control. They scored 50 pts after halftime, which is somewhat ridiculous, and shot 54.1% for the game (including 9 of 18 from 3-pt range). Duplicating a performance like that, in the same place with no rest, seems unlikely. 

ISU was 3-0 SU at home this year before losing yday and 24-6 L30 home games overall. Their only two losses previous to Sunday came against Purdue and St. Louis, both of whom are very good. Not only are the Sycamores looking to exact some revenge for yesterday, but they are also 0-7 ATS L7 games vs. Drake. So some serious payback is in order tonight. ISU didn’t shoot well yday (38.8%) and truthfully has been pretty cold from the floor in the L4 games. But they are due to “heat up” at the same time Drake is due to cool off. Take the points. 8* Indiana State

10* Washington (7:05 ET): These teams just played last night (here in D.C.) and there was no shortage of points with the Magic prevailing by a score of 130-120. That makes it five straight wins for the Magic against the Wizards and they’ve covered the spread in each of the last four. Furthermore, Orlando has now opened its season with B2B “upsets” as they beat Miami 113-107 on Opening Night (that was at home). I can’t see these runs continuing though in what will eventually become a common spot this season (that being facing the same team B2B nights), but is still unusual as of right now. 

Washington is now 0-2, but they did cash for me - as 7.5 point underdogs - in the first game (against Philadelphia). That game saw them lead much of the way before fading late. They were actually up 10 - on the road - going into the 4Q. Last night saw another poor finish as they were outscored 39-28 over the final 12 minutes. The team is certainly getting “what it wanted” from Russell Westbrook as he’s now turned in a pair of triple doubles. Bradley Beal also scored a game-high 39 points last night. 

Bench scoring was huge for the Magic last night as they outscored the Wizards’ reserves 53-32. You don’t often see that kind of an advantage for the road team in a NBA game. Don’t count on it happening again.  All that’s missing for the Wizards is that elusive win. They need to work on their defense (easier said than done), but given they had the lead going into the 4Q in both games so far, learning to finish is the most important thing. I think they do that Sunday night. 10* Washington

10* Indiana State (1:00 ET): Drake is not only 9-0 straight up, they are also 7-0 against the spread to start the season (two games vs. non-board teams). But the Bulldogs haven’t really beaten anyone of note since the season opener at Kansas State. Sunday afternoon finds them traveling to Terre Haute for the MVC opener. While this is a rivalry Drake has largely dominated at the betting window (8-1 ATS L9, 6-0 L6), ISU did win the most recent meeting, 58-56 back in January, on this floor. Close games have also been common with four of the past six head to head matchups being decided by six points or fewer.

Indiana State has played just five games so far and is 3-2 SU. Both losses are quite excusable as they were on the road against Purdue and St. Louis. The Sycamores are 3-0 SU at home after their most recent game, a 72-66 win over SE Missouri State on Tuesday. While the final margin ended up being just six points, ISU started the game with a 9-0 run and never trailed. They were up double digits for most of the second half.

Every one of Drake’s wins this season has been by double digits, so give them credit. But this will be just the third “true” road game of the season and only the second in the L30 days. Again, the schedule has been weak with two non-DI opponents, not to mention the likes of South Dakota, Chicago State and North Dakota. A side note: these teams are also playing tomorrow. I absolutely think Drake’s unbeaten run ends here in Terre Haute and Larry Bird’s alma mater is worth taking the points Sunday afternoon. They are 24-6 SU L30 home games. 10* Indiana State

10* Minnesota (9:05 ET): Not sure how good the T’wolves are going to be this season, but they did start the season with a win (admittedly, it was vs. Detroit) and are getting a decent amount of points tonight in Salt Lake City. The Jazz probably couldn’t have asked for a better start to their season as they blew out Portland on the road, winning by 20 points (120-100). It won’t be that easy every night, however. Look for this to be a close game Saturday night between two Northwest Division rivals. Take the points. 

Minnesota was NOT invited to the bubble, so the win against Detroit Wednesday night was the 1st time we got a chance to see them play since March. While Karl-Anthony Towns led the way with 22 points, 11 rebounds and 7 assists, it was Malik Beasley that scored a team-high 23. That the T’wolves won by 10 is a little misleading in the sense they trailed by as many as 12 in the third quarter. They actually didn’t take their first lead until there were less than four minutes remaining in the game. 

Despite that, the underdog role should suit them well tonight against a Jazz team that won’t be able to replicate its Wednesday effort. They put up 50 three-point attempts, a potential sign of things to come. Five different players drained at least three 3-pointers and the team made 19 of those 50 attempts. Defensively, they held Damian Lillard scoreless (!) in the first half. Again though, this feels like a bit of a letdown spot. I look for the T’wolves to shoot better tonight than they did vs. Detroit (43.2%) and with games against the Lakers & Clippers looming in the next three days, they should play hard in this one. 10* Minnesota

10* Under Oakland/Detroit (4:00 ET): Both of these Horizon League squads are pretty bad defensively, but they should get a much welcome “reprieve” by facing each other. I say that because - as bad as both Oakland and Detroit may be defensively, they seem to even worse shooting the ball. Oakland, who is an ugly 0-9 SU, has shot just 35.4% from the floor so far and 29.0% from three-point range. Yet all but one of their games (the 2nd one) has gone Over the total! That streak should end Saturday afternoon. 

Detroit is no better when it comes to shooting the basketball. They are making only 38.5% of their FG attempts so far, including an unsightly 28.9% from 3-point range. The Titans just allowed an average of 89 PPG in a pair of home losses to Wright State. Both of those games went Over the total. Again though, their defense is going to get a major break here in facing one of the worst teams in the entire country. The most points Detroit has scored in a game this season is 76 and this is the highest O/U line for any game to date. 

Same for Oakland, whose previous high O/U line was 148.5 against Michigan State. They played Detroit twice last season and while both of those games went Over, the final point totals were 141 and 147, both of which would be UNDERS in this scenario. Oddsmakers have adjusted too much in the wake of all the poor defensive efforts these teams have delivered in the early part of the season. Again, neither is shooting the ball well and that means I am going Under on a very high total. 10* Under Oakland/Detroit

10* Over Clippers/Nuggets (10:35 ET): Think revenge might be on the Clippers’ mind here? Back in September, they were shockingly eliminated from the Western Conference semifinals - in 7 games - by the Nuggets. That series saw the Clips blow a 3-1 series advantage. It was one of the more improbable playoff runs as Denver had also come back from a 3-1 series deficit to oust Utah in the first round. I have the Nuggets regressing (in terms of wins & losses) this season, so I was not shocked that they dropped their opening game.

I certainly considered the Clippers in this spot, given the revenge angle. But I don’t like the idea of laying points, no matter how few, in Denver. The Clippers are also coming off an emotional win over the Lakers in the opener. I took the Over in that game, which panned out, as the 116-109 final snuck Over the closing number of 219.5. It was a really strong effort from the Clips, who raced out to a 39-19 lead after the 1st quarter. As much as they’d like to “stick it” to Denver here, not sure they can replicate that first game performance - on both ends.

No game in that 7-game Western Conference semifinal series went Over. There were five Unders and two pushes. But not only did the Clippers’ 1st game go Over, so did the Nuggets’. Overtime obviously helped with the Denver game (was a 124-122 final), but it was also 112-112 at the end of regulation with Sacramento. Expect the Nuggets to shoot better from three-point range than they did vs. the Kings when they connected on only 8 of 27 attempts. Both of these teams can score in bunches and WILL on Christmas night. 10* Over Clippers/Nuggets

8* Dallas (8:05 ET): It was a poor shooting night for Dallas in the opener as they made only 42.4% of their field goal attempts and were a woeful 9 of 37 from three-point range. Yet they only lost by four on the road to the Suns. I’m pretty high on the Mavs this year, feeling that they should finish third in the West (behind the two LA teams). They really underperformed last year considering they did finish 3rd (in the West) in point differential and led the entire league in offensive efficiency. Bottom line: I expect them to win more games this season. 

The Lakers are at a severe disadvantage at the start of the season, seeing as they’ve had just 71 days off since winning the NBA Finals in October. It showed in the opener as they were blitzed out of the gate by the Clippers, falling behind 39-19 at the end of the 1st quarter. While they quickly rallied to turn it into a competitive contest, the Lakers never led and ended up losing 116-109 as a two-point favorite. Personally, I cashed the Over.

Dallas has to be getting sick of these close losses. They were a league-worst 2-11 SU in games decided by three points or less, prior to the season being suspended last year. They then suffered three more losses by 4 pts or less in the bubble. I expect some of those close losses to “become” wins this year. Throw in the fact they are likely to shoot the ball much better than they did in the opener and I see a live dog Christmas night. The Mavs should also start to improve defensively with Josh Richardson on board. They had the 4th most road wins (23) in the league last season. LeBron rolled his ankle in the opener.  Take the points. 8* Dallas

10* Washington (7:35 ET): The Wizards probably shouldn’t have even been invited to the “bubble” back in July, but I suppose the NBA wanted to create the illusion of some sort of drama in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Things didn’t go well for the Wiz down in Orlando as they went a pretty miserable 1-7 SU (2-6 ATS), the lone SU win coming in a completely meaningless final game vs. Boston. On the flip side, the opportunity to play those games in the bubble did allow for Washington’s younger players to gain valuable time to develop. 

The Wizards team that will take the floor tonight won’t resemble what we saw a few months ago. Not only is Bradley Beal back (career-high 30.5 PPG LY) after he sat out the bubble, the team went out and traded for Russell Westbrook. That’s an obvious upgrade from John Wall, who they sent to Houston in the trade for Westbrook. Washington now has one of the best backcourts in the entire league, even if there’s some logistical hurdles to clear. The Wizards were not a good defensive team for much of last year, but did improve to 11th in efficiency from the time they traded away Isaiah Thomas until lockdown. 

Philadelphia was a dominant 29-2 SU on its home floor last season, but without the benefit of any home court advantage really limped to the finish after the restart. They were swept in the 1st round of the playoffs (by Boston), resulting in a coaching change (Doc Rivers now calling the shots). While this team definitely has plenty of talent, I feel they are coming into the season overvalued. Some of that is the home record from last season. Winning by what the oddsmakers are calling for here on Opening Night seems like a challenge too tall with their offensive flaws. Take the points. 10* Washington

10* Ohio State (4:30 ET): We’ve got a Top 25 matchup Wednesday afternoon in Columbus with #23 Ohio State hosting #11 Rutgers. My view is that these teams are much closer than those rankings indicate with the Buckeyes probably being better. So I see Rutgers’ (6-0) unbeaten run coming to an end here. The Scarlet Knights have managed to win two straight as underdogs, but the third time WON’T be the charm here as three consecutive SU dog wins is a difficult thing to pull off. Lay the very short number. 

Ohio State won 77-70 against UCLA its last time out. It was technically a “neutral court game,” though being in Cleveland, it was obviously an edge to the Buckeyes. Still they came in as 2-pt underdogs, so it was a nice win. It was also much-needed after a loss at Purdue last week and a less than stellar showing here at home vs. a terrible Cleveland State side 10 days ago (OSU won by only six). That being said, the Buckeyes are a top 10 team in offensive efficiency right now and 20-8 ATS their L28 home games. They’ve outscored visiting teams by 19 PPG this season in Columbus. 

Everyone’s going to lose at least one game this season and this just seems like a very logical spot for Rutgers to fall for the first time in 2020. The win over Illinois on Sunday was impressive, but also came at home. The Scarlet Knights had to overcome a DD deficit in the 1st half and 54% Illini shooting to get the 91-88 victory. I don’t think they can count on scoring that much on the road. Being able to attempt 36 free throws was also huge against Illinois and that’s something that almost certainly will NOT repeat itself Weds afternoon. Ohio State doesn’t turn the ball over much and will pick up its first Big 10 win of the season here. 10* Ohio State

10* Over Clippers/Lakers (10:05 ET): Doesn’t it feel like the NBA season just ended two months ago? Well, that’s because it DID just end two months ago, with the Lakers taking care of the Heat in the Finals. It will be VERY interesting to see how some of these teams handle the unprecedented short turnaround between seasons. The NBA Champs get the least time off as they open the season Tuesday night against a Clippers team still smarting from a shocking defeat at the hands of Denver in the Conference semis. 

The Lakers arguably got BETTER in the offseason, which sounds scary. Of course, you’ve still got LeBron James and Anthony Davis leading the way. But the big key now is the supporting cast is a whole lot better. You’ve got the likes of Marc Gasol, Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell and Talen Horton-Tucker backing up the two superstars now. Speaking of superstars, the Clippers return their pair - Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. They lost Harrell to the Lakers, but replaced him with Serge Ibaka. The biggest change for the Clips is that Ty Lue replaced Doc Rivers as HC. They will again be a top 2-3 team in the West.

The two LA teams met four times last season and - surprisingly - all four games stayed Under the total. I’m predicting a different outcome this time as the Lakers seem poised to be a lot more dynamic this year when James and Davis exit the court. I hardly expect “lockdown defense” in the first game of the season. The Clippers averaged 116 PPG LY while the Lakers weren’t far behind at 113.3. Strangely, neither side hit their season average in any of the four meetings LY. Things will be different this time. 10* Over Clippers/Lakers

10* Under Purdue/Iowa (9:00 ET): Iowa is 7-0 Over this season and 3-0 Over its L3 games vs. Purdue. So this is most definitely a “contrarian” type play Tuesday as we look to buck those aforementioned trends. One more thing - Iowa comes in averaging an astonishing 98.7 PPG. They just suffered their 1st loss of the season, 99-88 to Gonzaga on Saturday. But in the face of all that info, I’m still going Under here in the Big 10 opener as there’s simply no way those types of numbers can be sustained. 

The 88 points scored in the Gonzaga loss were actually the FEWEST by Iowa in a game this season! But let’s keep in mind that they’ve been able to “run up the score” against some bad teams thus far. Defensively, the Hawkeyes are far from “elite,” but they are holding opponents to just 68.5 PPG on 38.9% shooting here in Iowa City. Again, they’ve hosted some weak teams, but they’re doing a solid job at defending the three-point line plus opponents are shooting just 40.8% overall for the season, even after Gonzaga went 36 of 70. 

To put Iowa’s 7-0 Over run to start the season in its proper perspective, note there are only two other teams in the country that are 5-0 Over or “better.” Purdue comes in off an 88-78 win over Notre Dame, so they’ve done some scoring too, but I just can’t see it continuing like this. The Boilermakers are 3-0 Under as road dogs of 6.5 to 9 points the previous two seasons. Iowa has some serious revenge to exact here as they’ve lost four straight times to Purdue. They’ll be looking to play some defense. 10* Under Purdue/Iowa

8* Under St. Josephs/Tennessee (6:00 ET): St. Joe’s has played a murderous schedule thus far and things get no easier here as they pay a visit to Knoxville to face #10 Tennessee. So far, the Hawks have faced Auburn, Kansas and Villanova. Throw in a 81-77 loss to Drexel and it’s an 0-4 SU start with every game going Over the total. They’ve given up 81 points or more in every game. Do note, however, that one of the games (season opener vs. Auburn) did go to overtime.

Tennessee hasn’t given up more than 56 in any of its four games and thus it’s been a pretty easy 4-0 start for them. They’d actually gone Under in three straight to start the season before shooting a blistering 58.3% from the floor against Tennessee Tech over the weekend, including 47.4% from three-point range. Six players were in double figures as the team produced its 8th largest MOV (54 points) in program history. They scored 103 points, which is something you just don’t see much in College Hoops. Of course, you have to consider the opponent. 

With UT not having allowed more than 56 points in any game so far, I have to think this is where St. Joe’s Over streak comes to an end. Assuming we get the “usual brand” of Volunteer defense, that would require them also scoring 90+ (to send this one Over) and I just don’t see that happening. Playing a second game in four days, it’s going to be next to impossible to replicate the shooting we saw vs. Tenn Tech. None of the Vols’ first three games saw more than 121 total pts scored and this is easily the highest O/U line for any of their games to date. St. Joe’s hasn’t shot well this season and the Under is 7-1 when they face a SEC team. The Under is also on a 25-12 run here in Knoxville and the Vols are allowing just 32.9% shooting YTD. 8* Under St. Joseph’s/Tennessee

10* Minnesota (8:30 ET): There are only 11 teams in the country that have won at least six games without a loss. St. Louis is one of them and perhaps even more impressive is the fact the Billikens have covered the spread in all six games as well. They’ve got two wins against “Power 5” teams (LSU, NC State), but are about to hit the road for the first time tonight against Minnesota. I like the fact St. Louis is favored in this one as it’s a great time to fade a team I didn’t really expect to still be undefeated. Take the points. 

Minnesota also began its season 6-0 SU. But the Golden Gophers just tasted defeat for the 1st time on Tuesday, getting blown out 95-62 by #13 Illinois. I think we all know that the Illini are one of the top teams in the country, so I’m not at all discouraged by that loss from the Gophers. It was on the road (their first road game) and they shot very poorly (27.5 FG%). Back at home, I expect Minnesota to be back in the 80s-90s (in terms of points scored), like we saw in the majority of their first six games this season. 

I think it’s a little telling that St. Louis isn’t even ranked despite its perfect record. Considering they just played two games in three days, with NC State a last minute addition to the schedule, this seems like the point where the inevitability of losing a game catches up with them. They trailed NC State at the half. This will now be their third game in six days. 10* Minnesota

10* Texas Tech (7:00 ET): It’s expected to be a very competitive game in Lubbock tonight as #14 Texas Tech hosts #5 Kansas. While KU has played the more challenging schedule of the two, this will be the Jayhawks’ first “true” road game of the season. The season in Lawrence began with a loss to Gonzaga. No shame there, especially with the Jayhawks winning six in a row since that lone loss. Texas Tech is also 6-1 and their only loss was to a very good Houston team on a neutral floor.

Still doesn’t sound like much of an edge either way, right? Well, Kansas has had plenty of close calls during its six-game win streak, winning half those contests by four points or less. Wins over Kentucky, N Dakota St and Creighton have been by a total of eight points. The Jayhawks easily could have lost all three of those games as they trailed in the final minute against both N Dakota St and Creighton and then by nine at the half against a Kentucky team that has otherwise struggled in the early part of the season. 

The majority of Texas Tech’s wins so far have been blowouts as you’d expect given some of the opposition. Maybe that’s why my power rankings “like” the Red Raiders so much. I’ve got them as the higher rated team, safely in the Top 10 while Kansas is outside the Top 10. Kansas’ defense seems to have slipped this season, so I expect Texas Tech to turn around their recent shooting from 3-pt range. The Red Raiders are obviously again one of the nation’s best defensively as they already rank #1 in efficiency. 10* Texas Tech

10* Over Samford/Troy (7:00 ET): All of Troy’s games thus far have stayed Under the total. Note that the last game (Central Baptist) did not have a total posted, but considering the final score (61-44), it would have been an Under had a number been posted. But here, the Trojans are finally matched up against an opponent that has no problem putting the ball in the basket. Samford comes in averaging 86.0 PPG on the season and is 41-22 Over its L63 games overall. This one will be high-scoring. Take the Over.

These teams met last season and Samford won 72-60. That was NOT an Over, however Samford shot very well in the win, making over 50% of their shots from three and overall. It was a bad shooting night for Troy, who finished at 32.3% overall and 25.9% from three-point range. Poor shooting has also plagued the Trojans during this 3-3 start as they are at just 34.4% overall from the field and 23.1% from behind the arc. Those are simply hideous numbers and HAVE to improve moving forward. Good thing then that Samford is giving up an average of 78.2 PPG so far.

Samford’s last game, a 79-75 loss to Georgia, did NOT go Over the total. However, dating back to last season, their previous seven games all had. Bulldogs’ games are average 164.2 PPG this season, which is well above the total for tonight’s game. Samford has scored at least 75 in all four games and topped 95 twice. They are a top 25 team in adjusted tempo, which means plenty of possessions and more opportunities to score. Troy is 6-2 Over at home when the total is 145 to 149.5. 10* Over Samford/Troy

8* TCU (7:00 ET): Oklahoma State may have a nice, shiny 6-0 SU record, but they’ve covered the spread just twice and are unranked. That leads me to believe this isn’t a team you should place a ton of faith in moving forward. Tonight looks like a clear opportunity to fade as they open the Big 12 schedule against TCU. The Horned Frogs are now 5-2 SU on the year following an impressive 73-55 win against Texas A&M over the weekend. I would not be surprised if Jamie Dixon’s crew ended the Pokes’ unbeaten run here. Take the points. 

Oklahoma State’s last game was a close call at Wichita State where they won 67-64 as three-point road favorites. That was the Cowboys’ 4th win by eight points or less so far and second straight. They only managed to beat Oral Roberts by five last week here in Stillwater. I’m still not sure we know a ton about OK State right now, but we’re about to learn as they open the conference slate with this game, followed by trips to Texas and Texas Tech. What I can say with confidence is the Pokes won’t be unbeaten for much longer.

TCU hasn’t had much success in Stillwater of late, losing eight of the last nine visits. This is their first true road game of 2020-21. But what we can lean on here is the Horned Frogs’ defense as they’ve given up an average of just 57.3 points in three neutral site games. With this likely to be a low-scoring game and OK State just 1-4 ATS when laying more than five points at the betting window, taking the dog is the way to go here. TCU covered against Oklahoma earlier in the year. 8* TCU

10* Western Carolina (7:00 ET): Western Carolina has pulled off an incredible string of close victories this season in getting to 6-1. On Saturday, they downed North Carolina A&T 104-98 in overtime. However, that was a game they really “should have” finished off in regulation as they led by 13 with just over seven minutes remaining. As I already alluded to, winning close has been the norm for this WCU team as they have four wins by seven points or less. On the flip side, their only loss (to Troy) was by two.

VCU has looked a little better than expected so far. Thanks to a couple of upsets over Utah State and Memphis in the first few games, the Rams are now 5-2 SU. They come into tonight riding a three-game winning streak, one of them by 36 over the same North Carolina A&T team that just took Western Carolina into OT. On Saturday, it was a 23-point victory over old CAA rival Old Dominion on Saturday. They’ve covered five in a row and are 6-1 ATS overall. The only non-cover was a 12-pt loss at a very good West Virginia team where they were 10.5-point underdogs. 

While VCU has been impressive in victory this year (all 5 wins by double digits), I don’t think they are going to be able to keep winning in such dominant fashion. With Western Carolina having played so many close games already, I expect another one tonight. The “Havoc” defense of VCU is going to be tested here by a Western Carolina team that shoots the ball very well (58.2% last game). The Catamounts have covered the last five times they’ve been a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points. 10* Western Carolina

8* Portland State (5:00 ET): Washington State may be undefeated (4-0), but they have been living quite dangerously with all four wins coming by four points or fewer. All four wins have been here at the Palouse and save for a minor upset of Oregon State, the competition hasn’t exactly been fierce. The Cougars other three wins were against Texas Southern, Eastern Washington and Idaho. They went 0-3 ATS in those games. So there is hope here for a Portland State squad that may not be great, but was favored in its first road game of the season. 

Sadly for the Vikings, they lost that road game. It was the season opener vs. Portland and they fell 86-73 as 2.5-point chalk. Their only game since then was an 88-48 blowout of Northwestern College on Tuesday. Consider that to be a confidence builder as they go in to face a P5 foe on the road. Portland State held their opponent to 29.1% shooting on Tuesday, an encouraging sign seeing as Wazzu is shooting a paltry 35.9% on the season.

While the Wazzu faithful are hoping that this can be the first dominant win of the season, I see a team ripe to be upset. Considering the Cougars’ four wins this year have been by a total of 14 points, the idea of them laying double digits to anybody seems questionable. They have had to rally from a double-digit deficit in each of the last three games! So they are a REALLY shaky 4-0.  Furthermore, it looks as if they could be short-handed on Sunday. 8* Portland State

8* Grand Canyon (9:00 ET): Grand Canyon University is off to a 3-0 start having waxed Mississippi Valley State by 39 points 10 days ago. That 88-49 win was the Antelopes’ third straight (victory) by double digits to open the 2020-21 season, though the level of competition hasn’t been particularly strong. Case in point; they were 32.5-pt favorites over MVSU. Still the fact that the Antelopes have been bet to the role of favorite tonight vs. Nevada should tell you “all you need to know” about the respect this team deserves.

Nevada is off to a 4-1 SU start, having just defeated William Jessup 86-64 on Monday. Obviously, that wasn’t much of a test. Before that easy win, the Wolf Pack suffered a horrible 25-point loss to San Francisco on December 2nd, a game where they were 2.5-point home favorites. That result carries more weight for me when handicapping tonight’s matchup. Before Monday’s game, Nevada had not shot the ball particularly well this season. 

Though it’s been against weak competition, Grand Canyon looks great so far and deserves to be favored in this matchup. The Antelopes have revenge from an 8-point loss two years ago. That game was played on a neutral floor and you can bet the upperclassmen remember it. Nevada has been held below 40% shooting in two of its games thus far. They had to replace all five starters from last year, a problem for sure, so there are going to be growing pains like we saw vs. San Francisco. With Bryce Drew on the bench, GCU is going to improve a lot on the defensive end this year and three of last year’s four leading scorers are back. 8* Grand Canyon

10* Oregon State (8:00 ET): Oregon State is off B2B outright losses at the hands of Wyoming and Washington State, but should get back on track tonight against a lowly in-state foe. Both OSU losses have been close. They lost by four at Wazzu, then by only three to Wyoming. That Wyoming loss really stung as the Beavers led by six with under two minutes to go. They led Washington State by double digits early in the second half of that game as well. Really, the Beavers easily could be coming into this game unbeaten at 4-0. 

Portland is 3-1 and on a three-game win streak, but two of those three wins came against non-board teams. They did just beat rival Portland State 86-73 as a 2.5-point home dog last Saturday. The fact the Pilots were home dogs to a team like Portland State should speak volumes. I’ve got Portland ranked outside my top 300. As a reminder, there are “only” 347 D-I College Hoops teams. The Pilots have never won more than 11 games in any of HC Terry Porter’s previous four seasons here and are a terrible 7-61 SU in conference play. 

Oregon State’s problems thus far have been turnovers and a bizarrely low FG% on 2-point attempts. We should see those issues rectified tonight in what shapes up to be a “get-well game” for them. Portland also has turnover issues and while they do a great job at getting to the free throw line, they are outside the top 300 in the country in offensive efficiency, which is very bad. Oregon State should have a significant edge on the boards in this matchup and will be looking for a “pound of flesh” after blowing 2H leads in the L2 games. 10* Oregon State

10* Boise State (9:00 ET): Boise State is going to look to exact some revenge here for what happened on the football field. In case you forgot, the Broncos’ football team suffered its only loss of the season at BYU earlier this year and it came in embarrassing fashion on the blue turf. The hoops team heads to Provo, looking to build off an 86-55 win over Sam Houston State that came all the way back on 11/29. The Broncos only other game this season was a 68-58 loss at Top 10 Houston.

BYU has been much busier than Boise State thus far as they come with a 5-1 SU record on the year. They’re off B2B wins (against St. John’s and Utah State), the latter coming on the road by three points. The Cougars weren’t tested during a 3-0 start and then suffered a blowout loss at the hands of USC, 79-53 as 3.5-point chalk. Tonight will be the most points they’ve had to lay since that game and my power ratings say the number is too high. I’ve got these teams rated pretty evenly and home court advantage just doesn’t mean much right now. 

Boise State has really struggled from three-point range thus far, making only 21.5% of their attempts. I expect that number to start going up immediately. The Broncos do an excellent job at crashing the glass and getting to the free throw line. They also are excellent at forcing turnovers (20th in NCAA) and defending the three-point line (22.9%). Those numbers are significant as BYU has a high turnover percentage (22.1% of its offensive possessions) and struggles at the FT line. This is a good matchup for the underdog. Take the points. 10* Boise State

8* SIU Edwardsville (7:00 ET): I don’t think Valpo should be laying double digits to anybody right now, even a “lesser” opponent like SIU Edwardsville. The Crusaders opened the season with three straight road defeats, one of them as a favorite to old Horizon League foe IL-Chicago. (The other two were at Purdue and Vanderbilt, so to be fair a strong start was unlikely). An 85-45 win over Judson College on Sunday was pretty meaningless considering that the opponent was a non-DI team. 

SIU Edwardsville started with an ugly loss at Saint Louis, but has since been a competitive squad. It’s other two losses were to LSU (easily covered that game as 30-pt underdogs) and Saturday at home vs. Omaha (by just two points). The Cougars pulled an upset in their last road game, beating Northern Illinois (by 20!) as a nine-point underdog! Having lost each of the L2 seasons to Valpo (by a total of just 18 points), the Cougars will be looking for revenge. 

Valpo has struggled from distance so far, shooting just 28% from three-point range. Even if that number is set to improve (it probably will), it’s going to be tough to cover a large spread such as this one. SIU Edwardsville has shot better than 50% in three of its five games and is much more proficient from behind the arc (including an impressive 41.8% in four games away from home). A poor 1H cost the Cougars the game against Omaha on Saturday. They’ll come out sharper here. 8* SIU Edwardsville

8* Illinois (9:30 ET): It was exactly one week ago that I took Michigan State plus the points here at Cameron Indoor and watched as the underdog pulled off the outright upset. Could Duke suffer another outright loss to a Big 10 opponent at home? Yes, I think so. I’ve got Illinois rated even higher than Michigan State, so this is a no brainer for me. I expect an outright win, but will take the points with the better team. Even after factoring in the minimal home court edge, I still think the Illini should be favored tonight. 

A young Duke team is off to an 0-3 ATS start. In addition to the outright loss to Michigan State last Tuesday, the Blue Devils did not cover against Coppin State in the opener or against Bellarmine on Friday. Now to be fair, they were favored by more than 30 in both games. But those spreads also reflect the fact Duke is overvalued right now. According to my own personal power ratings, they are not even a Top 25 team, let alone #10. Their current ranking is completely based on reputation. 

Coach K is also still trying to figure out his starting lineup. Eight different Blue Devils have found their way into the starting lineup in the first three games, which is a reflection of how young the squad is. Illinois is a veteran team looking to bounce back from a double digit loss to #2 Baylor. That was a close game for the first 30 minutes before Baylor pulled away. Note that while Duke lost by “only” 6 to Michigan State, they trailed by double digits much of the second half.  8* Illinois

10* Kent State (7:00 ET): I thought the oddsmakers made an error when they opened Detroit as the favorite for this game and it appears as if I wasn’t alone in that assessment given how the line has already moved. The Golden Flashes gave Virginia all they could handle over the weekend (in Charlottesville!), taking the Hoos into overtime and coming up only seven points short. They were 18.5-point underdogs, so they covered the spread easily. The only other game Kent State has played was a 90-41 win over Point Park.

Detroit is 0-2 SU, but 2-0 ATS as they’ve covered the spread against Michigan State and Notre Dame. Both games have come in the last five days. The Titans were very fortunate to draw Michigan State just a few days after Sparty went to Cameron and upset Duke. The situation played out just as you might think as Detroit took advantage of MSU being in the letdown spot, staying even for most of the game before losing 83-76. On Sunday, the Titans lost by eight at Notre Dame, a game they were expected to lose by 12.

Though Detroit has played two P5 teams tough thus far, they are the ones in a bit of a letdown spot Tuesday night. The team is probably somewhat discouraged by the fact they didn’t win either game and isn’t likely to “get up” as much for an opponent like Kent State. So look for the Golden Flashes to take full advantage as they are better rested and confident after taking Virginia to OT. Had it not been for FTs, they would have won that game. Another reason they should be confident is that they beat Detroit by 35 points last season. 10* Kent State

8* UNC Wilmington (5:00 ET): UNC Wilmington is gunning for a third consecutive upset here as they travel to face 3-0 East Carolina. The Seahawks have previously beaten UNC Asheville and Troy, games where they were six and three-point dogs, respectively. All three of their games thus far were played in Asheville (which is a lovely place to visit) as part of a tournament to open the season. They are led by Jaylen Sims, who is coming off a career-high 29 pts vs. Troy and averaging 26.7 PPG (on 63% shooting) overall. 

East Carolina might be unbeaten, but that’s a byproduct of who they’ve played. A season-opening win over Charlotte was a decent resume builder, but since then it’s been victories over NC Wesleyan (non-DI opponent) and Radford. The Pirates’ defense has been pretty good so far as they are allowing just 56.3 PPG, but I don’t expect that to continue. UNC Wilmington has scored 73 or more points in all three games and shoots very well (40%) from three-point range. The Seahawks have two other double-digit scorers besides Sims. 

While UNCW did allow 98 points to Western Carolina in the season opener, they’ve been much better defensively in the last two games, particularly vs. Troy. They held the Trojans below 30% shooting for the game and allowed only 50 points. While not expected to make a ton of noise in the Colonial this season, the Seahawks deserve more respect than they’re getting here against a team that’s overrated simply because they have a “0” in the loss column. 8* UNC Wilmington

10* California (8:00 ET): The university from Berkeley treated me so well yesterday on the football field (outright win over Oregon as my 10* NCAAF Game of the Week) that I thought I’d try the basketball team on Sunday. In all seriousness, me taking both programs on the same weekend is mere coincidence as this play is all about my skepticism over UCLA being ranked in the Top 25. I don’t see it. 

The Bruins’ season started with them losing outright (as a 3-pt favorite) to San Diego State. While it was a road game, they lost by 15 points and only managed to score 58 points on 39.5% shooting. From there, they did score 107 points the next game, but that was because of TRIPLE overtime. The Bruins were extremely fortunate to get the ATS win against Pepperdine (won 107-98) as they were NOT covering the 7-point spread for roughly 99% of the game. After a game with Long Beach State was postponed, UCLA finally got to play its home opener Thursday and it was their most complete effort to date. But that 78-52 win came against lowly Seattle, who was a 20-point underdog. 

Cal is 2-2 SU, but 0-2 in Pac 12 play. They’ve suffered losses to Oregon State and Arizona State, both coming by exactly eight points. The Bears didn’t shoot well in either game (just under 40% overall) and really struggled from 3-point range. But I didn’t exactly see great defense from UCLA in their first two games. Thus the Bears should see improved shooting tonight. The eight-point final margin against Arizona State was actually somewhat misleading as it was the largest they faced the entire game. It was a close game throughout. The same should end up being true here. Take the points. 10* California

8* UT Arlington (5:00 ET): UT Arlington is off to a 1-3 start (straight up), but that record doesn’t do justice to how competitive the Mavericks have been in those four games. Rather you should look to the fact they are a perfect 4-0 ATS. They only lost by 7 to Oklahoma State, by 5 at Louisiana Tech and by 12 at Arkansas. The Tulsa team that they are facing Friday is 0-2 SU and ATS and hasn’t done much in the way of scoring. When these teams met in Arlington last season, the Mavericks were 14 pt winners, holding Tulsa to just 59 points. This is a matchup where taking the points makes a lot of sense. 

Covering as underdogs is nothing new for UT Arlington. After all, they are a remarkable 70-38 ATS the L108 times taking points including 3-0 already this season. The fact they’ve been able to cover all of these games has been a testament to their defense as the Mavericks are shooting below 40% from the field thus far. They were able to hold Arkansas to just SIX points over the final 10 minutes on Wednesday, but it still wasn’t enough. You have to figure they’re going to start shooting better moving forward and I say that happens here.

Tulsa’s season has started with losses to TCU and South Carolina, both of which were part of the Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City. Despite only losing by 5 to TCU, the Golden Hurricane never led in the second half. They jumped out to an early 9-0 against sloppy South Carolina, but after that were pretty much dominated and ended up losing by 11. This is the first time Tulsa has been favored and UT Arlington is on a 14-5 ATS run vs. teams with losing records. Tulsa’s three-point shooting has been dreadful and I smell upset here. Take the points. 8* UT ARLINGTON

8* Niagara (8:00 ET): These two upstate New York teams have combined to play just ONE game thus far and it was Syracuse delivering a thoroughly unimpressive 85-84 win over Bryant. While you’ll always take a win, given the fact the Orange were favored in that game by 22 points, winning 85-84 is not what they had in mind. The fact they made only 40% of their field goal attempts against such a lesser foe is NOT a good sign moving forward and the Orange could be looking ahead to next week’s game vs. Rutgers, who is a Top 25 team. Take the points in this matchup. 

It would not be a shock to see Niagara keep this game close. After all, last year they lost by only 14 (71-57) here at the Carrier Dome and that was despite shooting just 32.4% from the field, including 6 of 27 from three-point range. You’d expect them to shoot better this time around. The 2019-20 season was not a good one for the Purple Eagles offensively, but they should be better at that end of the floor this season. They return LY’s leading scorer Marcus Hammond, who is one of the top players in the MAAC. 

The fact that Jim Boeheim’s son (Buddy) is the best player on the team is an insight into the relatively sad state of Syracuse basketball right now. No longer is this program a power on the national level. They are probably looking at a middle of the pack finish in the ACC. While they are likely to win tonight, their struggles in the season opener reiterate this is not a team you want to lay a ton of points with. Failing to cover against Bryant drops the Orange to 1-5 ATS the L6 times they’ve been a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points. 8* Niagara

10* USC (7:00 ET): Two unbeaten teams here meeting in the Mohegan Sun Arena for what is a de facto home game for UConn. It seems as if it’s been FOREVER since the Huskies were relevant on the national scene, but they are 2-0 right now and averaging 85.0 points/game. Still, neither win could be considered all that impressive as one was against Central Connecticut State and the other a non-cover vs. Hartford. Tonight is the Huskies’ stiffest test to date as they face a 3-0 USC team. 

Southern Cal has shot 50% or better in all three of its games thus far and played exceptional defense in the last two. After holding Montana to just 33.3% shooting last Saturday, the Trojans were even stingier vs. BYU, limiting the Cougars to a 27.5 FG% in what was termed an “upset” two nights ago. But you wouldn’t have known USC was a 3.5-point dog by the way they played Tuesday. They won by 26 (79-53) on this same floor. Both Mobley brothers finished with double-doubles and Drew Peterson led the scoring with 19 points. 

I’ve got USC rated as the better team here. If this were just a “one-off” at the Mohegan Sun, I’d be less inclined to back them, but that’s not the case. After watching the Trojans destroy BYU here two days ago, I’m comfortable in pretty much disregarding any advantage UConn might otherwise have by playing this game within the state border. It’s not as if fans are a factor in 2020. I’ve been very impressed with the USC defense the L2 games while UConn’s scoring average is inflated by one big game against a terrible opponent. UConn had its game (vs. Vanderbilt) scheduled for Tuesday cancelled and will struggle with USC’s size. The Trojans have won six straight going back to the end of last season. 10* USC

8* Oregon State (10:00 ET): The Pac 12 has wasted little time getting conference play underway and here we have Oregon State travelling to Pullman to face Washington State. Both teams are 2-0, however Wazzu is 0-2 ATS as both wins were close. OSU is coming off a 114-point effort last Friday, albeit against a non-DI opponent (Northwest Col). But the Beavers also have already picked up a win over a conference opponent, beating Cal 71-63 in the season opener. 

Oregon State is hoping to avoid a repeat of what happened LY here in Pullan when they arrived as 3.5-point favorites and lost outright, 89-76. That was a bad shooting night for the Beavers, at least from three-point range where they finished just 2 of 13. That shouldn’t happen again here as the Beavers are deep and one of the most experienced teams in the entire country. Six players are averaging in double figures thus far, led by senior Ethan Thompson, who has started every game in his career. 

Washington State had to rally past both Texas Southern and Eastern Washington to win by four and three points, respectively. The Cougars shot poorly in the first game, then actually trailed 16-3 early against an Eastern Washington side that was down to just seven scholarship players (COVID). Looking at the injury report here, I see a lot of question marks for Wazzu and that’s not good for a team that simply isn’t very deep. They have the worst record in the Pac 12 over the past two seasons as well. 8* Oregon State

10* South Dakota State (7:00 ET): The better team is getting points here, at least in my opinion. Even if you may not agree with that assessment, there certainly is no denying that the underdog is the more “battle-tested” of the two teams. South Dakota State has already played #11 West Virginia, Utah State & St. Mary’s. The Jackrabbits have emerged from that stretch with a 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS mark. Meanwhile, Iowa State has played only one game (Ark-Pine Bluff) and is without starter Tre Jackson. 

All three of South Dakota State’s games were a part of the Bad Boy Mowers Classic, which was held in nearby Sioux Falls. They were actually favored to beat St. Mary’s (-3), which shows this team is already respected in the marketplace. That line was probably also based on the fact the Jackrabbits had just clobbered Utah State by 24 points the day prior. Playing their third game in three days, SDSU had an “off-shooting” night vs. SMU (36.2 FG%), which included 2 of 12 from 3-pt range. They even missed 12 of 27 FT attempts. Keep in mind that the Summit League contingent was able to outrebound West Virginia in the season opener! 

Iowa State will miss Jackson as he was one of the team’s best three-point shooters. Though they ended up winning comfortably (80-63), the Cyclones actually trailed Arkansas Pine Bluff at halftime here in Ames in the season opener. South Dakota State returns the fourth most minutes in the entire country from last season, so this is a veteran team that won’t be intimidated by playing in a Big 12 building. (Home court advantage obviously doesn’t mean much right now anyway). They’ve been off since Friday, giving them plenty of time to recoup after the Bad Boy Mowers Classic. 10* South Dakota State

10* Michigan State (7:00 ET): Michigan State has had a curious lack of success against Duke through the years. Their only win in the L10 tries against the Blue Devils came in the Elite Eight of the last NCAA Tournament played (2019), a 68-67 “upset” as 2.5-pt underdogs. Sparty is 0-3 SU all-time vs. Duke when matched up in the Champions Classic, plus they lost outright to them LY in the ACC-Big 10 Challenge 87-75 as 6.5-pt chalk. Things are different this year, however. I’ve got MSU rated as the better team, so this is looking like a good value. Take the points.

Michigan State is already 2-0 with wins over Eastern Michigan and Notre Dame. They defeated Eastern Michigan 83-67 as 22.5-pt favorites and then Notre Dame 80-70 as a 9.5-pt favorite. The Spartans shot better against Eastern Michigan, which is to be expected, but also played better defense vs Notre Dame. Joshua Langford is back after missing all of last season and the final 18 games of the year prior, which is a big boost. Also, don’t let that final score vs. ND fool you. Sparty led by as many as 28 in the 2H. 

After having its first game (vs. Gardner-Webb) cancelled, Duke finally opened its season on Saturday with an 81-71 win over Coppin State. They too opened a sizable lead (17 pts), but were unable to hold on to it. Still, the Blue Devils never even came close to covering the 39-point spread in that one. That was due to a combination of letting Coppin State make 10 three-pointers plus 22 turnovers. Duke is a young team and home court advantage doesn’t matter much in this scenario. MSU is 16-6 ATS after scoring 80+ points and I like them as a dog early in the season. 10* Michigan State

8* Texas (12:30 ET): Both of these teams started the season with a win. However, Texas was clearly more impressive than Davidson. The Longhorns clobbered a clearly overmatched Texas Rio Grande Valley 91-57, easily covering the 21-point spread. Davidson won comfortably against High Point, 82-73, but didn’t come close to covering the 19-point spread. For both teams, it boiled down to defense. Texas held UTRGV to 26.1% shooting. Davidson let High Point shoot a far more respectable 46.6% overall. 

That impressive showing by the Longhorns in the season opener was a continuation of what we saw from this team last year in non-conference play. They gave up only 61.5 PPG in non-conference play in 2019-20, going 10-3 SU in those games. Meanwhile, Davidson was just 6-6 SU in non-conference play a year ago. This is a big step up in class for the Wildcats facing the #22 ranked team in the country. I’ve got Texas very high in my own power ratings and expect this to be a blowout win Monday. 

This game is part of the “Maui Invitational,” which is actually being held in Asheville, NC. Despite the in-state advantage for Davidson, I still feel this should be a double-digit spread. Texas shot 57% from the floor in the opener. While it probably won’t be that easy on Monday, Davidson did just allow High Point to make 11 three-pointers and shoot 40% from behind the arc. The Longhorns did struggle on the offensive end last year, so their shooting in the opening game was certainly a welcome sight. I think it carries over here. Lay the points. 8* Texas