8* Toronto (7:35 ET): This is the second night of a back to back for Denver as they face a Toronto team that’s in complete disarray right now. The Raptors are responsible for ending the Rockets 20-game losing streak as they went down in Houston 117-99 on Monday. They are now on their own nine-game losing skid and rumors are swirling about the team being a “seller” at the (trade) deadline with Kyle Lowry and Norman Powell being the possible departures. But amidst all this chaos, the Raptors are only a slight home dog to the Nuggets tonight and I think they’re going to “show up.” Take the points. 

Having been hit hard by COVID-19 and injuries, Toronto is now 17-26 SU on the year and in 11th place in the Eastern Conference. Keep in mind they were .500 and very much considered a playoff team before the current losing skid began. Tonight is very much a “buy low” spot in my eyes. OG Anunoby is set to return to the lineup tonight (sat out Monday) and you’ve gotta think this defense is going to improve. I fully understand that the Raptors have fallen out of favor with much of the public, but their statistical profile is of a team that should be close to .500, not nine games under. 

Denver was up big on Orlando last night, then nearly let all of a 20+ point lead slip away. They ended up winning 110-99 and covering as 7.5-point road favorites. The Nuggets are solidly in the top five in the Western Conference right now and looking to take advantage of the fact the Lakers’ two stars are both out with injuries. They’ve only lost twice this month, at home to Dallas and New Orleans, but everything about this line “stinks” and I believe it’s a trap game for a team playing w/o rest. Denver is just 1-4 ATS following its last five SU victories. 8* Toronto

10* New York (7:35 ET): The NBA’s Eastern Conference is very BAD this year. Or at least you can say that it’s “lacking depth.” There are only three teams (Philly, Brooklyn, Milwaukee) that are currently more than one game above .500. The massive drop-off after that trio sees seven teams separated by just 2.5 games. Surprisingly, one of them is the Knicks. At the start of the season, no one saw this team as a likely playoff contender. But here they are in 7th place and allowing the lowest number of points per game in the entire league. Tom Thibodeau clearly deserves some sort of award. 

As depth-shy as the East is this season, Washington still finds itself way off the pace for even a play-in spot. They are 15-26 SU and at the opposite end of the spectrum (from the Knicks) when it comes to points allowed as they give up a league-high 120.0 per game. They surprisingly held the Nets to just 113 the other night, in a game effort, but the end result was still a loss, their sixth in the past seven games. Sunday was the first time during that 1-6 SU stretch that they didn’t allow more than 120 points. 

The Knicks aren’t a high-scoring team, but I expect them to post a big number tonight. They might be just 1-3 SU L4 games, but all three losses came by five points or less, two of them by a total of four points. Also, those losses were to Brooklyn and Philadelphia. Sunday’s loss to the Sixers was an OT game. It’s very sad that Washington isn’t a real playoff contender in the East, considering they have both Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook. New York is simply the better team here and playing with more effort, especially on the defensive end. They beat the Wiz 109-91 as three-point road favorites last month. 10* New York

10* LA Clippers (10:05 ET): For a while now, I’d thought Atlanta was much better than its record showed and sure enough they’ve really picked up the pace by going a perfect 8-0 in March, including 6-0 since the All-Star Break. This is a team that has had a positive scoring differential and net efficiency rating for basically the entirety of the season, so I’m not surprised to see them up in 4th place in the Eastern Conference right now. However, this shapes up to be their toughest matchup in quite some time and I see the win streak coming to an end tonight. 

The Clippers have been maddeningly inconsistent all year. You’d have to go back more than a month to find the last time they strung together B2B wins. However, they are still 4th in the West, the stronger of the two conferences, and coming off a commanding 27-point victory over Charlotte that took place here at home Saturday night. In four of the last five games, the Clips have held their opponent to 105 points or less. This despite being w/o both Patrick Beverley and Serge Ibaka. 

Give credit to Atlanta for its eight-game win streak, but they’ve been beating some weak teams such as Orlando, Sacramento, Cleveland, Houston and Oklahoma City. They also just faced the Lakers, the game where LeBron got hurt. Not having to deal with James or Anthony Davis, the Hawks rallied to win that game by five points. That helped the Clippers out and now they can help themselves as there’s definitely room to move up with the Lakers being so vulnerable right now. They still have Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, so I’m not concerned about the injuries to Beverley and Ibaka. 10* LA Clippers

8* Under Colorado/Florida State (7:45 ET): So we’ve got two teams coming off very efficient wins where they were red-hot from the field. Colorado and Florida State very much won in “different ways,” but I don’t think there’s any denying that neither will be able to match the respective shooting we saw in those first round victories. Colorado made 16 three-pointers as they absolutely annihilated Georgetown 96-73. Florida State didn’t make a single three (0 for 9) in its 64-54 win over UNC Greensboro, but was 64% from inside the arc. 

Colorado was up 24 at halftime vs. Georgetown and saw that lead balloon to 32 in the second half. They shot 60.7% overall from the field, including a ridiculous 16 of 25 from 3-point range. No way they are matching those kinds of numbers here as FSU opponents are shooting less than 40% from the field for the season. The Buffaloes are 6-2 Under this season following a game where they scored 80+ and they are also 21-8 Under the L29 games with just one day of rest. They are 17-5 Under L22 as underdogs. 

Florida State is still 16-7 Over in all games this season, even though the first round win stayed Under. But here they are up against a team that gives up just 63.6 PPG and ranks top 25 in the country in defensive efficiency. I’m sure the Seminoles will make a three (or several!) tonight, but they won’t be matching that shooting from 2-point range they had on Saturday. 8* Under Colorado/Florida State

9* Colorado (7:45 ET): I feel that the wrong team is favored in this #4 vs. #5 (seed) matchup in the East Region. Colorado very much looked like a Final Four team as they completely dismantled Big East Tournament Champion Georgetown 96-73 in the first round. The Buffaloes came out red hot and took a 24-point lead into halftime. They wound up hitting 16 three-pointers for the game and led by as many as 32 at one point. Leading scorer McKinley Wright IV only had 12 points and that didn’t even matter. 

FSU had a bit of a tougher time with UNC Greensboro on Saturday. Though the Seminoles pretty much led wire to wire, they saw a double digit lead cut down to just one in the final five minutes. It wound up being a 10-point victory as the ‘Noles were very efficient from inside the arc, making 25 of 39 two-point attempts. They were 0 for 9 from three-point range, however, and that could be a major problem here as they face a team that just made 16 3PA in its first round game. FSU is just 1-4-1 ATS its L6 games, losing three of them outright despite being a favorite in all six. 

While I don’t think Colorado can possibly shoot as well from 3-point range here as they did vs. G’town, I also am predicting Florida State to have a downturn in its own shooting as well. I’ve been relatively high on this Buffs team all season and very much believe they have Final Four potential. Wright may have only had 12 points, but he had 13 assists and got help from freshman Jabari Walker, who had 24. Colorado is a perfect 8-0 SU this season (and 7-1 ATS) following a game where they scored more than 80 points. 9* Colorado

10* Creighton (6:10 ET): Creighton, a popular pick to get upset in the first round, was able to hold on for a 63-62 win over UCSB on Saturday. They obviously did not cover the spread (-7.5), but HC Greg McDermott will take it as his team got to move on. It’s been a bit of a “trying month” here with McDermott getting himself suspended for poor phrasing and the Bluejays getting clobbered in the Big East Final by Georgetown. But I still believe this is a Sweet 16 worthy club and they get a great break in playing 13-seed Ohio in the Round of 32. 

Ohio caught a massive break with its first round draw against Virginia. Due to COVID protocol, the Hoos weren’t able to practice together and didn’t even arrive in Indianapolis until Friday. This put them at a severe disadvantage and they played like it, shooting only 35% from the field, including 8 of 31 from three-point range. The Bobcats are hardly noted as a great defensive team as they rank 152nd nationally in efficiency, which is easily the worst among the 24 remaining teams in the Tournament (only one other is lower than #86 and that’s LSU). 

Creighton is an elite offensive team that should take advantage of Ohio’s defensive shortcomings. This matchup is similar to Villanova-North Texas, which I cashed in on yesterday. My power ratings suggest that the Bluejays are being significantly undervalued and this line should be double digits. Remember what I said about 13 seeds in Round 2 of the NCAA Tournament yday? They remain “0-fer” the L5 Tourneys in the 2nd round, losing by an average of more than 20 PPG. 10* Creighton

9* Villanova (8:45 ET): ‘Nova treated me well on Friday as they were my top Round 1 selection. A popular pick to be upset, the Wildcats instead won and covered, 73-63 as six-point chalk. With so much talk about the injury to PG Colin Gillespie, I think it’s fair to say the Wildcats are being underrated by the oddsmakers right now. I felt it should have been a double digit spread against Winthrop and think the same here as they face 13-seed North Texas. Lay the points here as Jay Wright’s team catches a very favorable second round matchup. 

Tip your cap to North Texas for pulling a 78-69 upset over Purdue in Round 1. The Mean Green were 7.5 point underdogs going into that game and are now 5-0 SU/ATS their L5 overall. But remember the Purdue game did go to overtime as UNT was unable to hold on to its early lead. I thought the Mean Green really caught a big break in that the Boilermakers started out very slow and shot poorly throughout. For the game, Purdue shot 36.2% overall and 30% from 3-pt range. 

Betting against teams seeded 13 or lower in Round 2 is typically the way to go as they struggle to maintain their “momentum” (hate that word) from the first round upsets. In particular, 13 seeds are “0-fer” in the previous four NCAA Tournaments, losing by an average of 18.8 PPG. Again I see some substantial value here on a Villanova team that just won by 10 despite not shooting the ball particularly well. North Texas’ last four victories have all come by fewer than seven points or in overtime. 9* Villanova

10* Florida (7:45 ET): Although they shot a blistering 56.5% from the field, Florida needed OT to get by Va Tech 75-70 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The Gators actually trailed by as many as 10 in the first half and were down 44-36 with just 15 minutes to go in regulation. But despite playing short-handed, they found a way to win and that was mostly by dominating the Hokies on the glass (36-22 rebounding edge). Really, had it not been for turnovers and some poor FT shooting, the Gators should have taken the game in regulation.

Meanwhile, 15-seed Oral Roberts became the big surprise of the 1st day of Tourney action by stunning Ohio State 75-72 as 15-point underdogs, another game that went to OT. The Eagles, who finished fourth in the Summit League and have the worst defensive efficiency of any team in the NCAA Tournament, pulled off one of the biggest upsets in history despite shooting only 35.7% from the floor. Not to throw “cold water” on the situation, but it’s a game I thought Ohio State really “threw away” in the closing moments of regulation. Turning it over only six times was huge for Oral Roberts.

This matchup reminds me a lot of my top first round selection - Villanova over Winthrop. The line is just way too low. It’s because of injuries on the Florida side (remember ‘Nova was missing its starting PG and still won), but they’ve still got Tre Mann, who has averaged 21.6 points the L5 games and Colin Castleton (who went for 19-14 vs. Va Tech). Oral Roberts really got dominated on the glass by Ohio State (-17) and considering what Florida did to Va Tech, I expect that to happen again here. Only one 15-seed (Fla Gulf Coast) has ever made the Sweet 16 and I don’t like Oral Roberts’ chances of becoming the second. Six straight wins for them sounds nice, but four have been by four points or less. 10* Florida

10* Over Wizards/Nets (7:05 ET): I don’t think you can find a matchup more likely to produce a ton of points than this one right here. Now obviously, that means the total is going to be high. But Brooklyn leads the league in scoring at 120.4 points per game. Washington gives up the most points at 120.2 PPG. So you have to figure the Nets will score a ton tonight. The Wizards should follow suit as they have hit at least 119 in each of their last four contests. Take the Over. 

The Nets are 14-2 SU their L16 games, but coming off a shocking 121-113 loss to Orlando, a game where they came in as 11-point favorites. While they finished below their season average in PPG, the main culprit for the defeat was the fact they let Orlando sink 21 three-pointers. It was also the second straight game a Brooklyn opponent shot 51.2% from the field. I won’t be surprised to see the defensive issues persist tonight, but there is a reason this team has been so successful and that’s the offensive end of the floor. I expect James Harden will have a bounce back game after struggling vs. the Magic (just 4 of 15 shooting). 

Washington has given up at least 120 points in six straight games. Brooklyn’s last three games have all gone Over. So did both previous meetings this year vs. the Wizards and surprisingly enough, both were Washington victories. The second was an insane 149-146 final and there was no overtime. The first was a 123-122 final. 10* Over Wizards/Nets

8* Wisconsin (2:40 ET): The Badgers probably couldn’t have played any better than they did in their 85-62 thrashing of North Carolina on Friday. I was happy to see it. Remember that I said the “wrong team was favored” in that matchup and was on the Badgers. In turning in their fourth largest margin of victory this season, Wisconsin turned it over only seven times vs, UNC while shooting 51% overall and 57% in the second half. Maybe it was the fact the game was played in “familiar territory,” that being Mackey Arena, home of Big 10 rival Pudue. 

Or maybe it’s that the Badgers are simply far better than their seed indicates. Something else I brought up in my analysis of their first round matchup is the fact that their last four losses all came to ranked teams and were by five points or less. While I don’t think they’ll be able to duplicate the 13 of 27 shooting from three-point range we saw vs. UNC, remember that Wisconsin is a top 15 team in defensive efficiency. In the KenPom ratings, they are in the top 12 overall! 

Though they had an easy time in Round 1 vs. Hartford, winning 79-55, Baylor really hasn’t looked the same since its season was paused for three weeks in February. They are just 1-7 ATS the L8 games. Even against a 16-seed, they struggled to shoot the ball Friday, making only 41.3% of their FG attempts including 11 of 33 from behind the arc. It will get much harder to make shots today. I just think Wisconsin was really underrated coming into this Tournament. They are 11-3 ATS vs. Big 12 teams. 8* Wisconsin

8* Abilene Christian (9:50 ET): There seem to be a lot of trendy underdogs in this Tournament, but I’m not seeing the name Abilene Christian mentioned among them. Maybe that’s because few people follow the Southland Conference. Or maybe it’s because they draw a tough 3-seed in Texas. But the Wildcats know how to defend as they are top 30 nationally in efficiency. They will be a tough out here. Among teams seeded 11th or lower, only Utah State has a higher defensive efficiency rating than Abilene Christian.

No 14-seed has won outright in the L3 NCAA Tournaments. You’d have to go back almost 20 years to find the last time there was a four-year stretch w/o a 14-seed winning. Abilene Christian comes in hot as they’ve won 12 of their last 13 games and steamrolled regular season champ Nicholls 79-45 in the Southland Tournament Final. That defense I mentioned earlier was on full display as they held the Colonels to 29.7% shooting. It was the team’s third consecutive win by 20 or more points.

While Texas (5-0 SU/ATS L5 games) has played very well of late for HC Shaka Smart, four of their last six wins have come by four points or fewer. The past three #3 seeds to lose in the first round were all Big 12 teams. Now I’m not saying the Longhorns lose straight up here, but after winning the Big 12 Tournament they feel a bit overvalued. They are just 1-6 ATS vs. teams averaging 77 or more points per game and Abilene Christian averages 77.6 PPG. Take the points with a dog more people should be talking about. 8* Abilene Christian

8* Norfolk State (9:20 ET): Obviously, I’m not predicting an upset here. But this is a ton of points, the largest spread we’ve seen in the NCAA Tournament thus far and I’m grabbing the points. Norfolk State was a 54-53 winner in the “First Four” Thursday, holding off a comeback attempt by Appalachian State, whom they led by as many as 19 points. I think the close call works in our favor here. Had the Spartans won in blowout fashion, my feeling is this line wouldn’t be nearly as high. For the record, my own power ratings suggest this number should be +30.

Gonzaga is seeking to become the first team since Indiana in 1976 to run the table and go undefeated for a full season. There is no doubt that the Zags were the best team in America during the regular season. I agree that they should be the favorite to cut down the nets in three weeks. But covering a spread this large can be problematic. There were several times this year where the Bulldogs got “backdoored.” In the seven games this season where they were favored by at least 30 points, they went just 2-5 ATS.

Norfolk State has covered its last six lined contests. They’ve won seven in a row overall SU. Their leading scorer Devante Carter scored just four points against App State on 1 of 10 shooting. Expect him to play better here. Defensively, the Spartans allowed just 25.8% shooting in the “First Four” game. Obviously, they won’t get that lucky again, but there’s a lot of pressure on Gonzaga this season and I don’t see them winning this game by 30+ points. For the record, their average margin of victory this season is 23.0 PPG. 8* Norfolk State

8* Creighton (3:30 ET): It seems as if the public has turned on Creighton, whether it be due to HC Greg McDermott’s poor choice of words or the team’s hideous showing against Georgetown in the Big East Tournament. Whatever the reason, I’m seeing a great “buy low” opportunity on the Bluejays here in the 1st round vs. UCSB, who did not play a single team from a major conference during the regular season. I expect the underdog Gauchos to really struggle to defend an elite offensive team like Creighton. Lay the points.

UCSB is 18-1 SU its last 19 games, but the lack of quality competition certainly helps explain that record. They rolled in the Big West Tournament, but it is worth mentioning that in their four losses this season, the Gauchos let the opponents shoot 44% from downtown. Creighton is a very good three-point shooting team as they make 36.7% of their attempts from behind the arc. I really don’t know how to explain what happened vs. G’town, other than to say it was “one of those days.” I certainly don’t see that happening again. There have been only two times this season when the Bluejays lost B2B games.

It was basically dreadful shooting in the first half that sunk Creighton in its last game. Look for them to come out hot here. UCSB has not made the Tournament since 2011. My power rankings say this spread should be double digits and that doesn’t even take into account the fact that UCSB’s third leading scorer (Ajare Sanni) has been downgraded to doubtful for this contest. 8* Creighton

10* St. Bonaventure (1:45 ET): LSU is precisely the kind of team I look to play against in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament. While the Tigers may be an elite team offensively, their defensive efficiency rating (125th in the country!) really sticks out like a “sore thumb” (in my eyes) and holds them back. They also aren’t a very good rebounding team. The fact that the Bayou Bengals just made it all the way to the SEC Tournament Final cast an even greater public spotlight and this is a great matchup to fade them, IMO. 

St. Bonaventure, rather quietly, won the regular season and tournament championship in the A-10. The Bonnies are 16-4 SU on the season and won/covered all four neutral court games during the regular season. In the A-10 Tourney, they got by both Saint Louis and VCU, two very good teams. Key here is the fact the Bonnies are 16th in the country in defensive efficiency, a huge edge over LSU. In fact, KenPom rates them as the better overall team in this matchup. I like the fact that teams are shooting less than 39% against them for the season. 

Remember that I did take LSU (plus the points) in the SEC Tourney Final vs. Alabama. But the Crimson Tide were also coming off a spirited come from behind win over Tennessee less than 24 hours prior. That was also the third meeting of the season between the teams. St. Bonaventure, a team with five double-digit scorers, is less familiar. LSU, for all its scoring prowess, has just four players averaging more than 4.2 PPG. The Tigers are 0-3 ATS L3 NCAA Tournament games. In a battle of two hot teams, the Bonnies are better. 10* St. Bonaventure

10* Villanova (9:57 ET): It’s the one time of year when I’m looking to FADE underdogs. Bettors are craving upsets during the first round of the NCAA Tournament, which results in many “unfamiliar” sides becoming public darlings. I believe we’ve got one such team here in Winthrop. The fact this is a 12-5 matchup will be sure to attract the public’s eye even more, but the bottom line is that my own personal power ratings suggest this line is substantially off - double the discrepancy of any other first round line vs. my own power ratings. I’ll happily lay the number here. 

Yes, I’m well aware of the fact Villanova lost it starting PG (Collin Gillespie) to a season-ending injury. But they still finished off Creighton without him and should be well-rested coming into Friday after an early exit from the Big East Tournament. (They lost in the closing seconds to Georgetown). That early exit actually marked the second straight loss for the Wildcats and third in the last four games. But the last two were by a combined three points and games they could have easily won. This is the 1st time all year Nova has been off B2B losses. 

Winthrop has just one loss this season and it came by two points to UNC Asheville. They dominated the Big South this year, but that’s a pretty weak conference. The key to this game will be tempo as Winthrop likes to play fast while Villanova doesn’t. I think a massive overadjustment has been made here by the oddsmakers in light of Nova’s B2B losses and the Gillespie injury. I’m going to trust my power ratings here. Winthrop turns the ball over at a fairly high rate and I wonder about their interior defense going against the likes of co-Big East Player of the Year Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. 10* Villanova

analysis soon

10* Miami (8:05 ET): Indiana has been in a downward spiral for some time now as they’ve dropped 8 of their last 10 games overall, including three of four since the All-Star Break. Some tough matchups haven’t helped as they first had to go on the road to face the Lakers, Suns and Nuggets, followed by a home game vs. red hot Brooklyn. But the fact that they’ve gone just 1-8-1 ATS in those L10 contests speaks to the fact all's not well here. The Pacers are now five games below .500 on the year and now are set to face a Miami team that’s trending in a much different direction. 

Though the Heat are 11-2 SU their L13 games and up to 4th (place) in the Eastern Conference, they are off a loss here. Ja Morant hit the game winning layup with just over a second remaining as the Grizzlies ended up beating the Heat 89-85 on Wednesday. In the only two losses over the last month, Miami has been held to 85 points or less. That seems to be a recurring theme for them as they’ve now been held to 85 pts or less a league-high six times. But after the last one, they bounced back quickly and defeated the Pelicans by 10 points in the next game. 

Miami is now healthier than it's been all season, which helps explain the recent surge. They may also have Trevor Ariza making his debut tonight after acquiring him in a trade with OKC. This is the first time facing Indiana since the Heat swept them in the first round of last year’s playoffs. The teams play again here on Sunday. The Heat couldn’t have asked for a better time to face the Pacers than right now. By the way, Miami has been playing excellent defense of late as they’ve held seven of their last eight opponents below 100 points, a remarkable achievement in today’s NBA. 10* Miami

analysis soon

8* Liberty (6:25 ET): Here’s an upset bid I do like. Oklahoma State is overvalued right now following a run to the Big 12 Tournament Final. The Cowboys had covered eight in a row before losing to Texas 91-86 (as three-point underdogs) on Saturday. They are 8-2 SU L10 games, the only other loss coming to then-undefeated Baylor. However, a number of those wins were close. Five of them were by five points or less. KenPom has them rated only 30th, very low for a 4-seed, and they aren’t in my Top 25 either. Take the points in this one.

Speaking of win streaks, Liberty hasn’t lost since January 15th. The champions of the Atlantic Sun Conference have won 12 straight, not a surprise as they were double digit favorites for most of the games, but they also covered the spread in the majority of them. The fact that the Flames play at a very slow tempo, which will minimize the number of possessions in this game, should increase variance and improve their upset chances. Their lone double digit loss this year was the opener against Purdue. 

OSU has the likely next #1 overall draft pick in the NBA, Cade Cunningham. But that probably over-values them in the marketplace. This team is just 5-6 ATS as a favorite. Meanwhile, Liberty is 4-1 ATS as a dog. Believe it or not, Oklahoma State has not been favored in any game since they faced an Iowa State team that went winless in Big 12 play, back on February 16th. The only time all year that the Pokes were favored by more than three points against a NCAA Tournament team was the second game of the season vs. Texas Southern (who is in the “First Four.”) 8* Liberty

8* Loyola Chicago (4:00 ET): The Ramblers, everyone’s favorite from the 2018 Tournament (when they made a run to the Final Four) is back and they are DANGEROUS. While seeded only 8th, they led the country in defensive efficiency and are considered a Top 10 team (overall!) at KenPom. This is a team no #1 seed wanted to see in the second round, so Illinois better be prepared. But of course, Loyola must first take care of business in the Round of 64 against Georgia Tech. I think they will. 

Georgia Tech came out of nowhere to win the ACC Tournament. Keep in mind that they got a free pass into the Tournament Final when Virginia had to bow out due to COVID-19. That was after a narrow escape against fledgling Miami, who led them at the half despite playing its third game in as many days. Then, once again playing with a rest advantage, the Yellow Jackets somehow beat Florida State by five in the Final despite the Seminoles shooting 56% from the field and 53.3% from three-point range. The key to that game was FSU turning the ball over an astounding 25 times, leading to 31 Ga Tech points. 

Yes, it’s now an 8-game win streak for the Yellow Jackets, but I believe it’s a great time to “sell high” on them. As I stated earlier, Loyola is no joke. They are 24-4 SU on the year with the only loss in the last two months coming by a single point at Drake (in the second game of a back to back). They allow just 55.5 PPG (also #1 in the country) and are 22-2 SU/16-7-1 ATS when favored. They also shoot 50% themselves. Georgia Tech has very little depth and already has had a player test positive for COVID before arrival in the Tournament bubble. Before the current win streak, the Jackets were only 9-8 SU. 8* Loyola Chicago

8* Utah State (1:45 ET): The Aggies of Utah State finished second in the Mountain West this season and were the runners up in the conference tournament. They are a top 10 team in the country in defensive efficiency. So I like ‘em getting points in this first round matchup with inconsistent Texas Tech. The Aggies have tremendous size in the frontcourt with 7-footer Neemias Queta averaging a double double (15.1 points, 10.0 rebounds) and forward Justin Bean right behind him in both departments (11.3, 7.7). Teams that have size have given Texas Tech problems all season. There’s always an upset or two on the first full day of the Tournament and this may very well be one of them. Take the points.

Texas Tech has gone far in both of its previous NCAA Tournament appearances under HC Chris Beard. You may recall that I was quite high on them during their run to the Championship Game in the last Tournament (2019) where they ultimately fell to Virginia (in overtime). They were an Elite Eight team in 2018. Perhaps it’s this resume why most bettors seem to think the Red Raiders will be fine here. But this particular group is NOT as strong as those previous two Tourney teams. 

This year, Texas Tech ranks “just” 24th in defensive efficiency. That’s obviously still pretty good, but not as good as Utah State and not as good as the 2019 Red Raiders team that was #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. Texas Tech is 0-3 ATS in neutral court games this season and just 3-5 SU in its last eight games overall. Utah State is 4-0 ATS after a game where it was held to 60 pts or less. They are 20-6 SU overall L26 games with three of the losses by four points or less. 8* Utah State

10* UCLA (9:57 ET): So UCLA’s regular season did not end well. They come into the NCAA Tourney having lost four in a row, those losses coming to: Colorado, Oregon, USC and Oregon State. Those would be the three teams I considered the best in the Pac 12 and also the team that won the conference tourney. Furthermore, it’s not like the Bruins played poorly in these games. Against USC, they led the whole way - until 1.3 seconds were left and the Trojans hit the GW three-pointer. Their exit at the hands of Oregon State in the Pac 12 quarterfinals may have been even more painful as they blew a 16 pt lead. 

You will probably hear numerous times about how Michigan State has wins over Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan in the last month. While that is rather impressive, Sparty was a clear underachiever this season. That’s evident by their 9-18 ATS record, which includes 3-11 when favored. They had those three impressive wins, but they also lost by 30 to Iowa and Rutgers. In three of their last five games, MSU failed to score 60 points, including a 68-57 exit against Maryland in the Big 10 Tournament. 

The fact UCLA has shot better than 50% its L5 games, but gone 1-4 SU, is a bit mystifying. They led the Pac 12 in three-point shooting this year at 39%. I think the Bruins are going to be a handful for a MIchigan State team that has just THREE wins outside of East Lansing this season while averaging just 63.5 PPG. UCLA has five double digit scorers, led by Kentucky transfer Johnny Juzang’s 14.0 PPG. They’ve led at the half in each of the L4 games, but are 0-4 SU! That’s insane! They are the better team here and should be favored. 10* UCLA

10* Over T’Wolves/Suns (10:05 ET): We all remember how the entire sports world was put on lockdown a little over a year ago. Since resuming, the Phoenix Suns have been one of the best teams in the entire NBA. They won all eight games in the bubble and while they were still denied a playoff berth, that hasn’t stopped them from starting this season 26-12. Truly one of the ascendent teams in this league, the Suns are only 2.5 games back of the Jazz for the top spot in the Western Conference as they have won 18 of their past 22 games. They are off a commanding 122-99 win over Memphis back on Monday. 

Minnesota operates at the opposite end of the spectrum. They have the fewest number of wins in the NBA (9) and have been the loser in 11 of their last 13 contests. Tuesday saw them go down 137-121 at the hands of the Lakers, who were playing the second night of a back to back. Thus the T’wolves were again denied B2B wins, something they have not done since starting the season 2-0! Since that time, they are just 7-31 SU overall. This is the first of two straight games for them here in Phoenix. 

The last time these teams played was Feb 28. That was a relatively low-scoring game with the Suns winning 118-99 (as a 10-pt favorite). Neither team shot well from 3-point range and it was a bad overall shooting night from Minnesota. Given that the T’wolves just allowed 137 points in their last game, I expect Phoenix to score plenty tonight. They’ve scored 120 or more in 8 of the last 12 games. Minnesota’s L5 games have averaged 241.4 points as they’ve topped 120 three times themselves while also giving up that many three times. They’ve allowed 135+ twice. The Over is 6-1 for them this season after a game where they allowed 130+ points. 10* Over T’Wolves/Suns

10* Washington (7:05 ET): Once again, I’m fading Sacramento. The last time I did so was Monday and sure enough they blew a 4Q lead and lost 122-116 in Charlotte. This play is quite similar in that we’re laying a short number to them on the road. Washington may not be as strong as Charlotte this season, but after losing to the Sixers and the Bucks twice, they should be ready to take advantage of a rare favorable spot. The Wizards’ current 1-6 SU slide is very much a byproduct of “who they’ve played” and I like them to bounce back here. 

The Kings lost more than a game on Monday. Marvin Bagley III, one of their top players, fractured his hand and will be out indefinitely. I’m sure the team will still figure out ways to score, but the issue for them remains on the defensive end where they are about as bad as anyone. No team in the league gives up more points per possessions and sure enough they’ve allowed 120+ points in five of the last six games. They shot 55.8% themselves on Monday and still lost. That dropped them to 3-13 SU since Feb 9 and those wins came against Detroit (worst team in the East), the Lakers (no LeBron/Davis) and Houston (17-game losing streak). Two of the three wins were by three points each. 

If there’s one thing that the Wizards do well, it’s score. So expect a ton of points from them tonight. Now, like the Kings, they too struggle at the defensive end. Notice how high the total is for this game. But, when the total is 230 or higher this season, Sacramento’s ATS record is just 4-12 (2-14 SU). Hopefully, 3-point shooting specialist Davis Bertans (knee) will be able to suit up tonight for the Wiz. If not, Bradley Beal (NBA’s leading scorer) and Russell Westbrook (off 23-17 game) should still carry them to a win and cover. 10* Washington

8* Under Bucks/Sixers (7:05 ET): There are three elite teams in the NBA’s Eastern Conference this season and these are definitely two of them (Brooklyn being the other). Milwaukee has finished first in the East each of the L2 seasons (no NBA Finals appearances though) and has the best YTD point differential. But it’s Philadelphia leading the way so far this year with a 28-12 SU record and they’ve won six in a row. Not to be outdone, the Bucks come into tonight riding a four-game win streak. Something will have to give.

Philly’s recent shooting spree was “due” to cool off and sure enough it did last night. While they still managed to beat the Knicks, they did so in low-scoring fashion, 99-96 as seven-point favorites. They had to come from behind to win and did so by holding the Knicks to just 14 points in the fourth quarter. The previous five games had seen the Sixers shoot a blistering 54.2% from the field, which couldn’t possibly be sustained and sure enough they shot just 41.1% last night, including 11 of 32 from three-point range. 

Milwaukee has scored 125+ in each of its last three games, but two of those were against Washington, who plays little to no defense. The Bucks shot 55.3% from the field in their last game, so they are due to “cool off” as well. The Sixers are #2 in the league in defensive efficiency and 4-1 Under this season when the total is 230 points or higher. This should be a hard fought game that stays Under a VERY high total. 8* Under Bucks/Sixers

10* Chicago (8:05 ET): The East isn’t particularly deep this season (only three good teams, IMO) and there is only a four-game gap between 4th and 11 place in the conference. Chicago is a team “in the mix” despite a SU record of 17-20. They just took advantage of the shorthanded Raptors Sunday night, earning one of their most lopsided wins in awhile, 118-95 as a three-point favorite. Now the Bulls can make it B2B wins by beating what I consider one of the weaker teams in the league, Oklahoma City. It’s a home game and a short number and I say lay it.

The Thunder are also coming off a win on Sunday as they beat the Grizzlies 128-122 as a 9.5-point home underdog. It was OKC’s third win in the last four games, though they are still closer to the bottom than the top in the West with a 17-22 overall record. They’ve been a bit more competitive than expected, especially on the road where their ATS record is 13-5.  But by most objective measures, they still should be counted among the worst teams in the NBA. After a game where they score 115+ points, it's a good time to fade the Thunder. They are just 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS in this situation. 

Chicago didn’t even get much from leading scorer Zach LaVine against Toronto as their leading scorer finished with only 15 points, his second lowest total of the season. He had 35 in the first meeting with the Thunder though, which the Bulls lost 127-125 in OT. The Bulls were favored to win that game (-2.5) and I like the revenge angle here, especially considering their 15-5 ATS mark this season when facing teams with a losing record. OKC can be pesky on the road, but this number is too low. 10* Chicago

10* Over Clippers/Mavericks (9:05 ET): Following a terrible 135-115 loss last night in New Orleans, Kawhi Leonard called the Clippers’ lack of consistency “very concerning.” He’s right. The team trailed by as many as 33 last night and is now only fourth in the Western Conference standings. They’ve dropped four of their last five games with the only win coming at home vs. Golden State. All four losses have come on the road - where they’ll be again tonight - and two were to sub-.500 teams. 

Speaking of inconsistent, it will be Dallas hosting the Clippers tonight. The Mavs have been on a recent uptick, winning five of their last six games, but are still only in 8th place. I expect better from them after an underachieving 2019-20 campaign. Saturday’s 116-103 win in Denver was definitely a step in the right direction, especially coming on the heels of a disappointing loss at Oklahoma City in the previous game. 

If there is one bright spot for the Clippers here, it’s the fact they are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season in the second night of back to back. But who could forget the last time they faced Dallas? They were down 50 points at halftime, which was a shot-clock era record, and suffered the worst defeat in franchise history (124-73). Obviously, they are going to score more tonight. But with a suspect defense (Pelicans shot 65.4% last night) and Patrick Beverley still M.I.A (and maybe Serge Ibaka too), the Clips will give up their fair share here as well. I see this game easily going Over the total as the Over has hit in each of the L4 Clippers’ games plus Dallas is 4-0 Over the L4 times it has been off a double digit win. 10* Over Clippers/Mavericks

8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): It would certainly appear as if the oddsmakers opened this line far too low. Not that I’m any kind of “big believer” in Charlotte, but Sacramento is most definitely one of the worst teams in the league (again) this season as they have the third worst record in the Western Conference and are giving up a league-high 120.0 PPG. Lay the points in this one. 

With three consecutive victories, the Hornets have climbed above the .500 mark and into sixth place in the Eastern Conference. This is something few would have imagined at the start of the season. In Saturday’s 114-104 win over the Raptors, they had a huge 1st quarter (44 points) and never really looked back. They wound up tying a season-high with 21 made three-pointers, 11 of those coming in the big opening quarter. Considering how porous the Kings are at the defensive end, Charlotte seems poised for another big offensive effort tonight. Two weeks ago, they won 127-126 in Sacramento, led by a career-best 42 points from PJ Washington. 

The Kings have split their two games since the All-Star Break, but are coming off a 15-point loss to the Hawks. They are also just 3-12 SU since Feb 9. Those three wins came against: Detroit (worst team in the East), the short-handed Lakers (no LeBron/Davis) and Houston (who is on a 16-game losing streak). Two of the three wins were by three points each. I know Charlotte has had its share of close wins recently, but unlike Sacramento, they can play defense. The current three-game win streak has seen them allow 102, 102 and 104 pts. With about 3,000 fans now allowed in, there’s a sense of home court advantage here. 8* Charlotte

10* Golden State (4:05 ET): The Utah Jazz were THE surprise team in the league in the first half. Not that no one expected to be good, but ascending to the top spot in the entire NBA was something few, if any, saw coming. But somewhat predictably, the Jazz have begun to “give a little back.” They lost their final two games before the All-Star Break, then failed to cover Friday against Houston, although they were massive 19-point favorites for that one. 

Golden State comes in on a season-worst four-game losing streak. Three of those losses - to the Lakers, Suns and Clippers. While it’s notable that those are three of the best teams in the Western Conference, so is the fact that all four losses have been on the road. Prior to this current losing skid, the Warriors had not dropped more than two in a row at any point this season. Ironically enough, this four-game losing streak came on the heels of their first three-game win streak of the season.

The first Utah-Golden State matchup of the season did not go well for the Warriors as they lost by 19 points. But that game was in Salt Lake City. Seven of Utah’s nine losses this season have come on the road while Golden State is a solid 12-6 SU at home. Also interesting is the fact the Dubs were “only” 7-point underdogs when they visited Utah for that first meeting. Now the number is roughly unchanged for a home game. I’m seeing some value today on the underdog especially since they’ve won three straight here in San Francisco. 10* Golden State

9* LSU (1:00 ET): I thought for sure that we “had” Alabama yesterday as Tennessee, a 4.5-point underdog, was up 48-33 early in the second half. But not only could the Vols not hold the lead, they failed to cover, losing 73-68. Thus the Crimson Tide, the regular season champs of the SEC, can now win their first conference tournament since 1991. LSU’s drought is even longer (1980) and they are the opposition after upsetting #2 seed Arkansas (who I have a lot of respect for) 78-71 on Saturday. The Tigers were 3.5-pt dogs yday, which is what my power ratings say the line should be here. Grab the points. 

LSU is #6 in the country in offensive efficiency and comes in averaging 82.4 PPG. So it typically takes a lot of points to defeat them. This is a double revenge game for the Tigers as they were blown out in both regular season matchups by Alabama. One of those was an awful 105-75 loss in Tuscaloosa while the other (in Baton Rouge) saw them lose by 18. So I guess I’m not surprised that this number has been bet up this morning. But I don’t think those regular season encounters are really indicative of the discrepancy between these two squads. 

While Alabama is certainly deserving of their Top 10 ranking and a team you should pay careful attention to when filling out your bracket this week, LSU is in my Top 25 as well. I see the underdog keeping this one closer than expected on Sunday. It’s the third game in three days for both teams and an outright upset seems more likely than a blowout. Alabama easily could have lost yesterday. They are without freshman guard Joshua Primo. While LSU is a bit suspect at the defensive end, they do defend the three-point line well as you saw yday vs. Arkansas. I think they’ll shoot better from distance here than they did in either regular season matchup with Bama. 9* LSU

10* Colgate (12:00 ET): A rare visit to the Patriot League for myself. This tournament has been spread out over the course of the last week with all the games played at campus sites, hosted by the higher seed. With top-seed Navy bounced in the quarterfinals (by Loyola MD), Colgate became the favorite and will host the Tournament Final. The Raiders have been big favorites in both of their tourney games so far. After not covering against Boston U in the quarters (won by 8 as 12-pt chalk), they annihilated Bucknell 105-75 (were -11) in the semis.

Loyola MD, the 9-seed, caught a break in that they were supposed to play in the first round of the tournament but Holy Cross forfeited due to COVID. Then came B2B upsets, first over top seed Navy, then over 4-seed Army. The Greyhounds are only 6-10 SU on the year, including the two upsets in this tournament. They did not face Colgate in the regular season. But they are 0-7 SU their L7 visits here. I’d be absolutely stunned if Loyola pulled a third consecutive upset here.

The Greyhounds’ good fortune continued beyond the Holy Cross forfeit as Navy was without two starters, so that helps explain that upset. The only loss for Colgate (13-1 SU) this season was by two points to Army. They are second in the country in scoring (86.4 PPG), trailing only Gonzaga, and have outscored their opponents by an average of 18.0 PPG. A win here would give the program its first NCAA Tournament appearance in a quarter century (the Adonal Foyle days!). They were probably the best team in the Patriot League this season  and I expect them to dominate this game. 10* Colgate

10* North Texas (9:00 ET): This is the C-USA Tournament Final. The winner goes to the NCAA Tournament, the loser will not. North Texas and Western Kentucky did not meet in the regular season. The last time they played was just over a year ago when North Texas won in overtime 78-72. Now they’ll try and do something they have not done since 2015 and that’s cover the spread against the Hilltoppers. The Mean Green are 0-8 ATS L8 head to head matchups, but are favored here and that’s telling. 

North Texas has not made the NCAA Tournament since 2010. They’ve won three games in three days this weekend, holding their opponents to an average of 53.5 PPG. That’s obviously very impressive, but probably should be expected seeing as the team is 10th in the country in scoring defense at 61.4 PPG. After crushing Middle Tennessee by 20 in their first tourney game, it’s been B2B six-point wins over Old Dominion and La Tech. The Mean Green are 8-1 ATS this season after allowing 60 points or less and they gave up just 48 on Friday. 

WKU is also strong at the defensive end. Over its last six games, they’ve allowed just 62 PPG on 39% shooting. Over the last two months, only one team has scored more than 71 points against them and that was Top 10 Houston. But those defensive numbers aren’t as good as what North Texas has produced. The Hilltoppers trailed UAB at the half yday despite shooting 50% from 3-point range. The player to watch here is UNT’s Javion Hamlet, who has averaged 18.0 points, 7.3 rebounds and 7.7 assists in this tournament. 10* North Texas

10* Portland (8:05 ET): While I’m a tad bit skeptical of the Blazers maintaining their current 6th place spot in the Western Conference, I do think they match up quite well with the T’wolves. Of course, most teams match up well with the T’wolves. Minnesota is in last place with an 8-29 SU record. They are arguably the worst team in the entire league, though they did start the second half with a shocking 30-point win over New Orleans. But they went into the All-Star Break on a 9-game losing streak, both SU and ATS.

After the shocking win Thursday, look for the T’wolves to revert back to their losing ways tonight. They shot a season-high 53.7% against New Orleans, so the Break treated them well. The 135 points were also a season-best. However, this is a team that ranks 27th in offensive efficiency, so I don’t think the shooting we saw Thursday will carry over. The fact that the Pelicans shot 6 of 32 from three-point range while the T’wolves were 19 of 40 was key. New Orleans actually led by 16 early in the game! 

Portland’s second half to the season started with a 127-121 loss at home to Phoenix. The Suns are a really good team this year, so that result doesn’t bother me. The Blazers had actually beaten the Suns last week to go into the All-Star Break on a three-game win streak. The only previous meeting with Minnesota was a 135-117 win at home that featured a 47-point quarter. Minnesota got a career-high 28 points from a third string PG Thursday and has won B2B games only once all season (started 2-0!). 10* Portland

8* Iowa (3:30 ET): I’ve got Iowa rated as the better team, so I’m taking the points here. Now there is no denying that Illinois is rolling. A couple months ago when they were underachieving a bit, I said to watch out for the Fighting Illini. They come into Saturday on a 5-game SU/ATS win streak including an impressive 90-68 thrashing of Rutgers last night. But just like the Illini, I feel Iowa is one of the five best teams in the country. It speaks to the strength of the Big 10 that such a matchup would take place in the tournament semifinals. 

Iowa won 62-57 yesterday, their second close win over Wisconsin in the last week. That they were able to win in such low-scoring fashion really impressed me. The Hawkeyes are typically known for out-scoring their opposition as they rank #2 in the country in offensive efficiency and #4 in points per game (84.2). That they held Wisconsin to just 57 points was a real nice “change of pace.” Uncharacteristically, they shot just 2 of 20 from three-point range. Look for that to turn around in a major way here. 

Presumed Player of the Year Luke Garza still scored 24 yday. This will be just the fifth time all season that Iowa is an underdog. The last time saw them go to Ohio State and win big. While Illinois has won 12 of 13, the Hawkeyes are 8-1 SU their L9 games (only loss at Michigan). The Illini did take the lone regular season meeting, but by only five points and that was in Champaign-Urbana. Illinois is only 1-4 ATS when coming off a SU win by 20 or more points. Iowa is undervalued here. 8* Iowa

8* Ohio State (1:00 ET): Friday marked the second day in a row that Ohio State failed to protect a big lead, yet managed to survive and advance. They were up 18 at the half on Purdue yday, but saw that entire lead slip away over the course of the last 20 minutes of regulation and overtime was needed to decide things. As you know, the Buckeyes were my 10* Game of the Week. I couldn’t watch any longer, so I actually turned the game off. I was quite pleased several minutes later when I checked my phone and saw that they won 87-78, easily covering the 1-point spread.

Because their last two games have ended up being close, we’re getting another good value on Ohio State today. I brought up a 5-game ATS losing skid they were on going into yesterday. That’s over now. They also led Minnesota by 14 with 3 ½ minutes to go on Thursday. So the Buckeyes have played pretty well in this tournament. They’ve just struggled to protect leads. That’s less of an issue now that they come in as the underdog, a role they have been in just twice since the start of February. 

The last time OSU was an underdog was against Michigan, a game they lost 92-87. That’s one of three losses by 5 points or less that they’ve suffered since Feb 21. This is the most points they’ve gotten in any game all year since before X-Mas. Michigan’s game yesterday was just the opposite of Ohio State’s. The Wolverines trailed by 12 early before storming back. I expect this one to be close as my power ratings say the number should be closer to +3. Ohio State has five outright wins as a dog this season and is 4-1 ATS the L5 times catching points. 8* Ohio State

8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): Both teams won their quarterfinal games in blowout fashion yesterday. Alabama hammered Mississippi State 85-48 as 7.5-point chalk. As impressive a win as that was, Tennessee beating a good Florida team by double digits may have impressed me more. The Volunteers never trailed in the contest and were up by as many as 17 in the second half. Now it’s looking likely that they’ll be without senior John Fulkerson for this game. But that’s caused the number to balloon and the Vols are a really good value here getting points. 

I have these teams rated pretty evenly. Fulkerson does lead Tennessee in field goal percentage, but they also have three double digit scorers to pick up the slack. Then you’ve got Yves Pons, who nearly had a triple double yesterday with 11 points, eight rebounds and nine blocks. Alabama could also be missing one of its standouts, starting guard Josh Primo, as he left yday’s game with an apparent knee injury. If Primo were to be out, that would certainly “cancel out” the Fulkerson injury. 

Alabama probably could not have played any better than they did yesterday. They were up huge most of the game, forced MSU to turn it over 18 times and held them to 1 of 19 from three-point range. But Tennessee will be tougher. To me, the Vols are a Top 25 team (even though they are not ranked). They’ve got revenge from a loss in the regular season. The Crimson Tide are just 1-4 ATS following a win by 20+ points and I feel are being overvalued off the big blowout win. Take the points. 8* Tennessee

8* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): Indiana’s first half ended with an 0-6 ATS run and they lost outright in five of those six games. The one victory was by only three points against Cleveland and even then they trailed by 19 in that game. The end result of this is the Pacers have fallen from the top eight in the Eastern Conference and are in a precarious position right now, sitting at 16-19 SU overall. They get no breaks to start the second half as they have to head to LA to face LeBron and the Lakers. 

Now the Lakers’ weren’t exactly playing their best basketball heading into the Break either. Playing without Anthony Davis, they dropped six of eight in what was their worst stretch all year. LeBron sat out the last game, a 123-120 loss to Sacramento, so take that result with a “grain of salt.” The rest came at a good time for this team as LeBron had really been shouldering a huge load. I think we’ll see them come out strong at home Friday night and this is really a short line when you think about it. 

Indiana is still waiting for Caris LeVert to finally suit up. He may return later in this road trip, but not tonight. LeVert was supposed to fill the void left by trading Victor Oladipo and the Pacers have really struggled since that move was made as they don’t have a reliable third scorer. Defensively, they were torched in their previous five games, allowing the opponents to shoot a collective 53.4% from the field. The Pacers have failed to cover their last eight games as an underdog. 8* LA Lakers 

8* Under Oregon State/Oregon (8:30 ET): Oregon State’s impressive ATS run continued yesterday as they knocked out UCLA 83-79 in Pac 12 quarterfinal action. It was the Beavers’ 14th cover in the last 17 games. Here they’ll face one of the teams they failed to cover against, top-seed Oregon, who beat them 80-67 in the regular season finale at Corvallis. Note that OSU did take the season’s first meeting, 75-64 in Eugene, but that came at a time when the Ducks were playing very short-handed. 

Oregon had no problems yesterday as they blew out Arizona State 91-73 as a 9.5-point favorite. The Sun Devils were playing their second game in as many as days (I won w/ them on Weds). Oregon was insanely hot from the field in the second half, scoring 56 points while not missing consecutive shots for almost a 15-minute stretch! The Ducks wound up shooting 59% for the game, including 10 of 18 from three-point range, the type of clip that will be awfully hard to duplicate here against their rivals. That said, the Ducks did shoot 57.4% overall and 65.2% in the regular season finale. 

You’ve got to think Oregon’s shooting HAS to cool down though as they are above 58% the L3 games and the Over is 6-0 L6 games. Couple that with the fact Oregon State’s final score yday was a byproduct of OT and I think you’ve got a great situation to play the Under here. The Beavers were down 16 in the 2H against UCLA before storming back with a shocking rally. Both teams are now playing w/o rest, so that’s a perfect time for them to “cool off” from the field. OSU was only averaging 63.4 PPG away from home this season going into yesterday. 8* Under Oregon State/Oregon

10* Denver (8:05 ET): With a four-game win streak going into the All-Star Break, the Nuggets were able to climb up into fifth place in the Western Conference. They were able to cover the spread in all four of those victories as well. Two were 30-point blowouts, one of them at Milwaukee, and what’s most impressive of all is that all four wins came on the road. Before heading back to Denver for a five-game homestand, the Nuggets wrap up their road trip tonight in Memphis. 

The Grizzlies are also on a 4-0 ATS win streak. But, unlike Denver, they did not win every game straight up as there was a one-point loss to Milwaukee. Nor was every game on the road. The one-point loss to the Bucks was here at home as was a 127-112 win over hapless Washington Weds night. So Memphis has a game under its belt since the break, which is not the case with Denver. I don’t really see that as being an advantage for either side heading into tonight. 

The Grizzlies do not have much of a home court advantage as they are just 8-11 SU on their own floor this season. Looking at their three previous wins, two were against Washington and the other against Houston, who is arguably the coldest team in the league right now. The fact Denver went to Milwaukee and won by 31 is incredibly impressive. Nikola Jokic has been playing out of his mind and the team is now 4th in the league in points per game (115.9). Memphis is 4-10 ATS following a double digit win. 10* Denver

10* Ohio State (2:30 ET): It speaks to the overall strength of the Big 10 that this, a matchup of Top 20 teams, would be a quarterfinal matchup in the conference tournament. Ohio State had to win yesterday just to get here. They beat Minnesota 79-75, however they failed to cover the 11-point spot. It was the Buckeyes fifth consecutive ATS loss, a streak which also happens to include four STRAIGHT UP losses. Conversely, Purdue SURGED at the end of the regular season, winning and covering its last five games.

I think those respective ATS streaks set us up with a nice value on Ohio State today. It certainly is telling that the lower seed is favored, albeit slightly, against a rested opponent. The Buckeyes’ losing streak featured numerous “close calls” as losses to Illinois, Michigan State and Michigan were all by 5 points or less. While I do have serious questions about the Buckeyes’ defense come NCAA Tournament time, they did a decent enough job at that end in two regular season meetings vs. Purdue (allowed 67 pts both games).

Now the Boilermakers won both (regular season matchups), one by two points and the other by seven (back in December). So in addition to being a “buy low” spot on OSU, it’s also a matter of double revenge. I also think this is a good time to “sell high” on Purdue, who came from the middle of the pack to “steal” a double bye from the Buckeyes. Ohio State got off to a 13-0 start in yday’s game and was up 14 with 3 ½ minutes remaining. So the fact they did not cover was disappointing. Purdue’s schedule over the last month was relatively weak by Big 10 standards. 10* Ohio State

10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): I think it’s fair to say there are three teams better than the rest in this year’s Eastern Conference. Milwaukee, in my view, is still the best. But Brooklyn is probably #2 and certainly has the most star-laden roster. In addition to Durant, Irving and Harden, the Nets now have Blake Griffin among their ranks in what is shaping up to be a “Championship or bust” type of campaign. The second half gets underway with a home game against Boston, who has underachieved and is not in their league. 

The Celtics are currently 4th in the East but as I indicated above, there is a definite gap between them and the top three. That gap was shrunk somewhat when they won their final four games before the All Star Break. All four wins were pretty close though (by seven points or less) and at home. The team is just 7-12 SU on the road so far and 6-13 against the spread. Boston has lost six straight on the road and they are 0-3 SU/ATS their L3 visits to Brooklyn. On X-Mas, they lost by 28 to the Nets - at home. 

Now Durant and Griffin aren’t playing tonight, but that’s OK seeing as Harden has been on fire, averaging 25.5 points, 11.4 assists and 8.7 rebounds with the Nets while delivering eight triple doubles.They lead the league in scoring (121.1 PPG) and “oh, by the way” are 10-1 SU/ATS their L11 games. Brooklyn is now actually the betting favorite to win the NBA Finals and while I’m not sure I agree with that, this line is far too short given that marketplace projection. Their last three wins have all been by double digits. 10* Brooklyn

9* Montana State (4:00 ET): Montana State is a putrid 0-8 ATS its last eight games, but they are still favored to win this quarterfinal matchup in the Big Sky Tournament against Idaho State. I think that’s telling, especially considering the Bobcats are the lower seed. Admittedly, we’re talking about a 5-seed over a 4-seed, but I think this is a great “buy low” spot. Regulars may recall that I took Idaho State last week as a big underdog against Eastern Washington. They shocked even me by winning that game outright. Almost immediately though, they reverted back to prior form, losing the rematch 75-62. 

So Idaho State has dropped three of four coming into this tournament. Granted, that’s not as bad as Montana State dropping six of eight. But save for the shocker over Eastern Washington that I was on, the Bengals don’t have a lot of impressive wins on their resume. The bottom four teams in the Big Sky are all quite bad and that’s who six of the seven wins in January/February were against. The other was against a non-DI team.

In case you’re wondering, no, these teams did not play in the regular season. They were supposed to in early February, but those games were cancelled. The favorite is 11-2 ATS the L13 head to head matchups. Montana State had to play Eastern Washington and Weber State a total of four times down the stretch, which helps explain the swoon. (Those are the two best teams in the league). The Bobcats are coming off a 1-point loss and should be highly motivated to win today. 9* Montana State

10* Seton Hall (3:00 ET): IMMEDIATE REVENGE! Seton Hall lost to St. John’s in the regular season finale 81-71 as a 2.5-point favorite. Full disclosure - I had the Pirates in that game. Things definitely looked good early as the Pirates scored the game’s first 18 points! At halftime, they led 38-28. But things fell apart after that as the Johnnies scored a season-high 53 in the 2H and thus earned the 4-seed for this Big East Tournament. Ultimately, the seeding designation meant nothing as here we are with the teams playing yet again. 

Seton Hall has lost four straight times as a favorite and is 0-6 ATS its L6 overall. But I’m going to “double down” here on them. The fact they were up 18-0 and lost Saturday is pretty ridiculous. They did beat St. John’s in the first meeting of the season, 77-68 as 6-point chalk. This late season swoon may very well end up costing the Pirates a NCAA Tournament berth. Right now, they are in the “Next Four Out” category according to Joe Lunardi. But there’s still time to change that. As I anticipated, the offense did get back on track a little bit Saturday. It was their second highest scoring game since Valentine’s Day. St. John’s is terrible defensively as they allow almost 80 PPG away from home. 

There were two times I faded the Red Storm in February and both bets were successful. One was when they faced DePaul as 11.5-point chalk and they lost that game outright. PG Posh Alexander (thumb) may return Thursday, but I still have the Johnnies as the lower-rated side here. Their lack of defense is a huge liability and has cost them games in the past. Seton Hall is much better than the recent results show and they are 17-5-1 ATS their L23 neutral site games. 10* Seton Hall

8* Over Kansas State/Baylor (2:30 ET): Last night couldn’t have gone better for Kansas State as they routed TCU 71-50 in 1st round Big 12 Tournament action. The Wildcats were 3.5-point underdogs going into that contest, so the margin of victory was definitely surprising. They used two big second half runs - 16-0 and 21-2 - to break the game open. What shouldn’t have been all that surprising is that the game stayed Under. It was the fifth time in their last six games that KSU held its opponent under 60 points and seventh straight Under for them. But the task is about to get a lot more difficult.

Considering how many points Baylor scored against Kansas State in the two regular season matchups, the odds of the Wildcats’ Under streak continuing here seem slim. Both times Baylor scored 100+ as they won those games by an average of 39.5 PPG. The Bears are the #1 seed in the Big 12 tournament, having lost only one game all year and that was to Kansas in the second game back from a long COVID-19 layoff. In the three games since, the Bears have averaged 87.7 PPG and topped 80 in every contest. 

Baylor is 8-1 Over its last 9 games overall and the Over is also 8-1 in the last nine head to head meetings between these two teams. Both of this year’s regular season games obviously flew Over and while the Bears may not score 100 again today, we probably won’t need them to. They average 85.3 PPG for the year, so all we’re looking at from Kansas State is about 60, which seems rather doable. 8* Over Kansas State/Baylor

8* West Virginia (11:30 AM ET): WVU gets an immediate shot at redemption in the first quarterfinal matchup of the day in the Big 12 Tournament. They face Oklahoma State, who just beat them 85-80 in the regular season finale. The game was in Morgantown with the Mountaineers favored by 10 as OSU was missing its leading scorer, freshman Cade Cunningham. The Cowboys have really been surging of late as they’ve won six of their last seven games (6-0 ATS L6) and are ranked #12 in the country. 

But even with the probability that Cunningham will return to the lineup today, I feel this is a great “sell high” opportunity on OSU, who I now view as one of the more “overrated” teams in the country. Not only do I not believe they are a top 12 team in the country, my own power ratings don’t even have them in the Top 30! Some of the teams they’ve been recently, WVU included (also Texas Tech and Oklahoma twice), make for quality wins. But with that run and the fact they’ve covered six straight, you gotta figure they’re due to “drop one” sooner rather than later. They shot almost 58% on Saturday in Morgantown with Avery Anderson III scoring a career-high 31 points. That’s not happening again today. 

With a win here, West Virginia HC Bob Huggins would join just four other coaches with 900 for his career. After being denied the honor Saturday, you can bet he’ll have his team motivated today. Consider that the Mountaineers have not lost a game by more than five points since before X-Mas and two of their last three losses came in OT. They are 4-1 ATS off a conference loss this season. 8* West Virginia 

8* Notre Dame (9:00 ET): The Fighting Irish needed a buzzer-beater to get by Wake Forest last night, so most won’t be giving them a chance here as they face 6-seed North Carolina in the second round of the ACC Tournament. But falling into a big early hole is what really hurt the Irish yesterday. Wake Forest opened the game on a 21-9 run, but ND quickly moved to cut into that margin and ended the game on a 17-2 scoring run of their own. They shot 51.7% from the field, including 12 of 26 from 3-point range. 

I certainly didn’t like the Irish as favorites yesterday. That non-cover dropped them to 1-5 ATS their L6 games overall. But let’s not forget what they did the last time they were an underdog. It was last Saturday when they stunned Florida State in South Bend. The Irish have scored at least 80 points in three of their last four games, so - to me - they are a pretty dangerous dog. In this season’s only meeting with UNC, they lost by only one (66-65) as a 9.5-point dog in Chapel Hill. That game was decided in the closing seconds. 

The Tar Heels probably feel pretty good about themselves heading into this Tournament. They just clobbered rival Duke 91-73 last Saturday. But they lost the last time they were on the road (72-70 at Syracuse) and are just 6-8 SU away from Chapel Hill this season. Five of their last six games were at home. It’s been almost two months since they won B2B ACC games. The underdog has covered five of the last seven head to head meetings between these two. This is one where you’ll want to take the points as “the world” figures to be on UNC. 8* Notre Dame

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): I’m expecting a big second half from the Mavs. Reason being they underachieved last year and that typically leads to a higher finish in Y+1. Currently, they are eighth in the Western Conference, but have won three in a row, including an impressive 115-98 road win over the Nets. They’ve won 9 of the last 11 overall, so really the “turnaround” is already underway. They’ve also won four of the last five regular season meetings with the Spurs, including the last one, 122-117 in San Antonio.

That was back on January 22nd and the Mavs would then go on a perplexing six-game losing streak that led to a lot of finger pointing. But as already detailed, the ship seems to have been righted and the fact the Mavs were able to win their last game without Luka Doncic was encouraging. Doncic will play Wednesday and considering he had 36 the last time these teams played, I’m expecting a big game from the All-Star. He comes in averaging 28.6 points, 8.4 rebounds and 9.0 assists for the season.

The Spurs are 7th in the West, one spot ahead of Dallas. But I’m not sold on them maintaining that position with this “motley crew” of a roster. HC Greg Popovich will always have his team playing hard, but San Antonio went into the break with a loss to OKC. They are bottom seven in the league in effective field goal percentage and just 5-12 ATS the L17 meetings with Dallas. I took the Mavs in that prior meeting and will do so again here. 10* Dallas

10* Arizona State (4:00 ET): While the injury news seems to be in Washington State’s favor heading into this 1st round matchup in the Pac 12 Tournament, I’m still siding with ASU. The Sun Devils last win came against the Cougars and while they did not cover the 5-point spread, all we’re going to need this time is a SU win. That previous meeting went to overtime, but Arizona State led virtually the entire game. They did so despite Wazzu shooting a higher percentage from three. The Sun Devils have been a bit snakebit in that they are just 5-22-1 ATS their L28 games overall. Eventually, that record HAS to turn around.

Now Washington State did not have its leading scorer (Isaac Bonton) for that last meeting w/ ASU. Reportedly, he is set to return Wednesday. But I question just how effective Bonton and his teammates will be here considering they haven’t taken the floor since losing to ASU on 2/27. That’s an 11-day gap between games. The Cougars are just 6-12 SU since the New Year with three of the wins coming vs. Washington or Cal. They also took advantage of Oregon when the Ducks were depleted.

Arizona State may be without its two standout freshmen, but I trust Bobby Hurley’s team will still be able to get the job done here. The regular season finale at Utah was obviously a disaster, but the Sun Devils did play Colorado tough on the road before that, at least until faltering late. I refuse to believe a team can be so inept when it comes to covering the spread and this looks to be a tremendous value. Remy Martin is due for a big game after struggling in last weekend’s pair of road games. He averages a team-high 19.9 PPG and had eight straight of 20+ before the nose diving against Colorado and Utah. 10* Arizona State

8* Over San Jose State/Wyoming (2:00 ET): This is pretty much the opposite of my three successful Under wagers the past two days. We’ve got two BAD defensive teams, one of which (San Jose State) stayed Under in each of its final six regular season contests. But let’s not sugarcoat things. The Spartans are an absolutely awful basketball team. They are giving up 82.2 PPG away from home for the season. Not to be outdone, Wyoming allows 76.7 PPG away from home. Expect this 1st round tournament game in the Mountain West to go Over the total.

San Jose State somehow did not finish last in the MWC this year. They did go 3-13 SU in conference play, but both Air Force and New Mexico each found ways to be worse. In my opinion (and according to my power ratings), San Jose State was the worst team in the MWC this season. Regardless, all you need to know is that the bottom of the MWC is really bad. There is a significant gap between those bottom three teams and everyone else, so Wyoming has every right to be a sizable favorite here. Still, I’d never lay double digits with the Cowboys due to the fact they are not good defensively. Opponents shot better than 50% against them for the SEASON in conference play!

Wyoming did close the regular season on a 4-0 ATS run, but two of those wins were against New Mexico. Seeing as the Cowboys average 75.6 PPG for the year, they should have no issue scoring today and even better is the fact they average 83.1 PPG when favored. These teams did not play in the regular season, but I think SJSU is capable of delivering one of its highest scoring games to date. Due to three cancellations, they haven’t played since February 21st. They’ll have to score as they rank 338th nationally in PPG allowed. Wyoming shot 55.1% on Saturday in its win over UNLV. 8* Over San Jose St/Wyoming

10* Drexel (7:00 ET): We’ve got a 6-seed (Drexel) and an 8-seed (Elon) competing in the Colonial Athletic Association Tournament Final on Tuesday. Obviously, this league is nowhere near the heights it achieved 10-15 years ago with the likes of VCU and George Mason (both of whom have since bailed for the “greener pastures” of the A-10). It’s really been “wide open” ever since those teams left and the fact we’ve got a 6 and an 8 seed playing in the Tournament Final speaks to that. However, I think Drexel was actually one of the better CAA teams this year and is quite likely to move on to the “Big Dance” next weekend. 

Other than regular season champ James Madison (who got bounced by Elon in the quarterfinals), Drexel had the highest rating among CAA teams over at KenPom. My own power ratings actually call them the BEST team in the CAA this season! So I’m not at all surprised to see the Dragons here. They were favored against 3-seed Charleston and 2-seed Northeastern in their first two tournament matchups. If you’re wondering how they ended up being the 6-seed, well that’s because they’ve played only five games since the beginning of February! That includes their two tourney games. 

Meanwhile, Elon is playing its fourth game in as many as days in what has been an improbable run. I did not expect to see them here. The Phoenix are a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS their L7 games and were the underdog in five of them. Three of those seven wins came against either Towson or William & Mary, the bottom two in the CAA. Elon did upset top-seed James Madison, but that was a 1-point win where they were down 10 at the half. Even with the high stakes here, you’ve got to think the tank is “near empty.” Drexel is 8-3 ATS as a favorite this season, so I won’t hesitate to lay the short number. 10* Drexel

8* Under Boston College/Duke (4:30 ET): So the ACC Tournament gets underway on Tuesday and in a rare sight we’ve got Duke playing in the Opening Round. This was most definitely a “down year” in Durham as the Blue Devils went just 11-11 SU and ended their regular season on a three-game losing streak. They most definitely need to win this tourney, or at least get to the final, to have any chance of making the “Big Dance” this weekend. One would think they would prevail today, but Boston College did upset Notre Dame not that long ago. 

Because of the “must-win” belief and the fact Duke is still one of the most “public” sides in all of College Hoops, the line is a little bit inflated here. Still, I really have zero interest in endorsing a BC side that has won just two games since X-Mas. Some of the losses have been close, like Friday’s 80-76 loss at Miami. But Miami is depleted and then you have losses like the one the Eagles were handed last Wednesday by Florida State (94-63). This is a matchup where I’m focused on the total. 

Duke has gone Over in six straight. But before UNC routed them on Saturday, the previous two losses both came in OT. They allowed just 64 and 65 points in regulation in those two contests. In many ways, handicapping this matchup reminds me of yday’s two successful Under wagers. You’ve got a team on a long Over run, but some of that is due to multiple OT games. When these teams met in the regular season, the score ended up 83-82 (Duke won), but BC shot the ball extremely well (56% overall including 9 of 16 from three), a performance they won’t be repeating today. The Eagles have lost two of their top three scorers since that loss to Duke. This will likely end up closing as the highest O/U line for either team all season. Duke is 20-8 Under in neutral site games when the total is 150 to 154.5. 8* Under Boston College/Duke

10* Under Northern Kentucky/Oakland (9:30 ET): The quarterfinals of the Horizon League Tournament, which occurred all the way back on Tuesday, were utterly insane. Three of the four games went to overtime (one of which, Cleveland State-IPFW, went to TRIPLE OT!) and the one that did end in regulation was decided by a single point.  After the four remaining teams were allowed plenty of time to “catch their breath,” things will resume tonight with both semi-finals taking place in Indianapolis. 

Northern Kentucky was the lone Horizon League team to win its quarter final game in regulation. It did so by beating Detroit 70-69 as a 1.5-point dog. The Norse seem to be peaking at the right time as that win was their 9th in the last 11 games and they are 4-0 ATS L4. It was impressive that they held Detroit to only 69 points considering the Titans shot 51% from the field, including 13 of 31 from behind the arc. The game stayed Under. 

Oakland’s 87-83 OT win over Youngstown State in the quarterfinals obviously went Over. That’s now eight straight Overs for the Golden Grizzlies, who are 21-6 Over on the year. But this is not a great shooting team (40.4 FG% away from home). These teams did NOT meet in the regular season and while both meetings LY did go Over those O/U lines were significantly lower than the one we’ve got here. I think the value is on the Under tonight. 10* Under Northern Kentucky/Oakland

8* Under Milwaukee/Cleveland State (6:30 ET): The quarterfinals of the Horizon League Tournament, which occurred all the way back on Tuesday, were utterly insane. Three of the four games went to overtime with one (Cleveland State-IPFW) going to TRIPLE OT. After the four remaining teams were allowed plenty of time to “catch their breath,” things will resume tonight with both semi-finals taking place in Indianapolis. The first semi features two of the most fortunate teams in all of America, Cleveland State and Milwaukee. 

 Cleveland State is the regular season champion of the Horizon League, but perhaps THE luckiest team in the country. Their luck rating is #1 at KenPom. The Vikings have six wins by four points or less this season. During a 17-4 SU, very few of their wins HAVEN’T been close. In that same vein, Milwaukee is now 3-0 SU in OT games this season. One of those OT wins was against Cleveland State on 1/23, a game they trailed by 13 with 1:59 remaining. The quarterfinal win against #2 seed Wright State was perhaps even more improbable seeing as the Panthers were down 24 with 6:26 left. 

Obviously, both teams’ quarterfinal games ended up high-scoring due to overtime. Milwaukee has now seen its last nine games all go Over and Cleveland State is 7-2-1 Under its L10. But I think the total for tonight is too high, especially when you compare it to the O/U lines from the two regular season matchups (131.5, 135). The first game ended up 64-53 in CSU’s favor. Milwaukee shot very poorly in both games and hasn’t been above 50% in any game since early January. 8* Under Milwaukee/Cleveland State

8* Coastal Carolina (9:00 ET): In my view, Appalachian State is clearly the weakest of the four semifinalists in this Sun Belt Tournament. That's hardly a “hot take” considering the Mountaineers are the only team of the four left standing that did NOT finish in the top two of either Sun Belt division. They got here first with a 67-60 win over Little Rock, then a 76-73 win against Texas State. The latter was an upset (ASU was +5) and a game that went to OT after the Mountaineers pulled off a second-half rally. I think their run ends here. 

Coastal Carolina has only had to play one tourney game to this point and it was rout as they beat Troy 86-68 yesterday. Interestingly enough, the Chanticleers’ last three wins have all come against Troy as have five of their last seven wins overall. They enter tonight’s semi final on a 4-game win streak. Even though Texas State (who App State beat yday) was technically the 1-seed in this tournament, I have Coastal Carolina rated higher in my own power ratings. The Chanticleers scored 53 pts in the 2H yesterday.

The only edge App State has in this matchup is they take better care of the basketball. Do not expect them to match yday’s 12 of 27 shooting from 3-point range. They are only 10th in the Sun Belt in three-point shooting. Defensively, no team in the conference has given up a higher effective FG% from 2 and 3 point range. Coastal Carolina is #1 in the SBC in both categories and is also #1 in offensive rebounding. This is a big break for them getting ASU in the semis and they’ll take advantage. 8* Coastal Carolina

10* Maryland (7:00 ET): The Terps suffered a terrible loss their last time out, They were beaten at Northwestern, 60-55 as 4.5-point chalk, a result that did their NCAA Tournament hopes no favors. Now they are still projected as a 9-seed, but were they to lose B2B games to Big 10 also-rans, that wouldn’t be good. This conference is filled with good teams, but N’western isn’t one of them and neither is Penn State, who comes calling to College Park Sunday evening. I expect Maryland to bounce back here.

Penn State recorded a blowout victory in its last game, 84-65 against Minnesota, which was the Nittany Lions’ home finale. But wins have been few and far between for this team as it was just the second for PSU in the L7 games. The other came against last place Nebraska. Now the “elephant in the room” here is that the Nittany Lions did beat Maryland 55-50 back on Feb 5th. But since that time, the teams have trended in opposite directions. The 2-5 slide for PSU began right after while Maryland is 5-2 since. 

Maryland allowed N’western to score the game’s final six points Wednesday, which ended a five-game win streak. It was a dreadful shooting night the first time they faced Penn State, but I do not anticipate that happening again as the Terrapins score 74.3 PPG here at home where they generally shoot well. Penn State has the worst 2-pt FG% in the conference and typically relies on offensive rebounding to increase production. But Maryland is a solid defensive rebounding team. They shoot the three well and teams are making 54.2% of their 2PA against PSU in Big 10 play. The Nittany Lions are just 2-8 SU on the road and will not match their 3-pt shooting from the last game. 10* Maryland

9* Furman (8:00 ET): Despite finishing third in the regular season, I think an argument can be made that Furman is the strongest team in the SoCon entering the Tournament. But before they can concentrate on the likes of UNC Greensboro and Wofford (the top two seeds), there’s a matter of revenge to take care of here in the quarter finals. They play VMI, who upset them back on January 11th. That 74-73 loss (as 11-pt favorites) did not specifically cost the Paladins a top two seed, but it definitely hurt. When you couple it with another 74-73 loss (to Wofford) last Saturday, you realize Furman was basically two points away from being the top seed in this tournament.

VMI also happens to be off a one-point loss, 75-74 at The Citadel. But that was TWO Saturdays ago. They finished 6th in the conference, but there’s a pretty substantial dropoff after the top five. Now give credit where credit is due. The Keydets did beat Furman. But that was at home and it was a cold-shooting night for the Paladins. They made only 37% of their FG attempts while VMI sank 44% from three-point range. Despite those disparate numbers, it was still only a one-point game. 

The number here is several points shorter than it was when Furman travelled to face VMI. So I’m seeing some value right off the bat. Furman had won four in a row, all by nine points or more, before losing at Wofford last Saturday. Like I said earlier, I still consider them the favorites to win this tournament and I wouldn’t be surprised if they are favored in every game. I think the two-week layoff hurts VMI here. 9* Furman

10* Seton Hall (7:00 ET): Twice I faded St. John’s last month and both times it ended up being a winning bet. The first time was against Butler (2/9) when the Red Storm entered in on an 8-game ATS win streak. They lost 76-73 as a 2.5-point underdog. That was close. But things were much more comfortable when I took DePaul +11.5 here in NYC on Feb 20th. The Blue Demons, who are having a terrible season, came in and upset the Johnnies 88-83. As I said in the analysis for both picks, this team has some real issues defensively. They are allowing 77.0 PPG for the season. 

Seton Hall is St. John’s opponent Saturday. This is an “old school” Big East rivalry and the Pirates have had the upper hand recently, winning the last three meetings. That includes 77-68 earlier this season. Now the Pirates come into this rematch with some “egg on their face” after dropping three in a row, all as favorites. They are 0-5 ATS the L5 games overall. But I view this as an excellent “buy low” opportunity and judging from the early line movement, so too do a lot of sharp bettors. 

Seton Hall has scored 60 points or less in four of its last five games. Those offensive woes should come to an end today. Prior to beating Providence Wednesday, St. John’s had allowed 76 or more points in five consecutive contests. There could also be a key absence here for the Red Storm as PG Posh Alexander (second leading scorer) is dealing with a thumb injury. According to Joe Lunardi, Seton Hall is currently the first team OUT on the NCAA Tournament bubble. That makes this a “must-win.” After falling apart in the 2H at home vs. UConn on Weds, motivation will be at an all-time high. St. John’s did beat Providence by 14 on Weds, but also trailed by as many as 11 early on. 10* Seton Hall

8* Indiana (2:00 ET): Already seeing their NCAA Tournament hopes dwindle, the Hoosiers could be without two starters today against #23 Purdue. They lost for a fourth straight time Tuesday, 64-58 at Michigan State and seemed to fade down the stretch. Race Thompson, who leads the team in FG%, exited with a facial injury and is questionable to play here. Second-leading scorer Armaan Franklin is almost certain to miss a third straight game due to a foot injury. But despite all the attrition, I expect IU to “show up” on Saturday. Take the points with what should be a VERY motivated underdog. 

While Indiana has been languishing, in-state rival Purdue has been surging. The Boilermakers have won four in a row with the latest victory coming against Wisconsin, 73-69 (as 2-pt favorites) on Tuesday. However, this feels like a golden opportunity to “sell high.” Much of Purdue’s recent success has come against teams in the bottom half of the Big 10 standings. With Indiana’s injury woes and the fact Purdue has won eight in a row in this rivalry, don’t be surprised if the favorite comes in overconfident. 

I don’t blame the injuries for IU’s loss Tuesday. The team shot 2 of 20 from three-point range and leading scorer Jackson-Davis (19.4 PPG) finished with only nine points. Still, the team lost by only six points. A lot of Purdue’s recent wins have been against Penn State, Minnesota, Northwestern and Nebraska. In an 8-3 SU stretch, those bottom four teams in the Big 10 account for six of the Boilermakers’ wins. The seniors on Indiana, having NEVER beaten Purdue, are gonna give everything they have here and I expect a close game Saturday afternoon. 8* Indiana

8* Wake Forest (8:00 ET): These are certainly two teams trending in opposite directions with Georgia Tech coming in on a 5-game SU win streak (also 6-0 ATS L6) and Wake Forest now 0-6 ATS its last six games and 0-5 SU its L5. Furthermore, the Yellow Jackets already own a 70-54 win (at home) against the Demon Deacons. That game took place back on January 3rd. You may recall I used GT two weeks ago when they travelled to Va Tech and won 69-53. They’ve since prevailed against Duke and Syracuse, both of those wins coming in Atlanta. The key here is the Yellow Jackets aren’t this big of a favorite very often. 

This point spread is a clear byproduct of recent form as Wake Forest is off five consecutive double digit defeats. It’s admittedly been a BRUTAL stretch as both Clemson and Va Tech held them under 50 points, then came a loss to a bad Pitt team (on Tuesday) that had one of its best players just recently transfer. But I don’t think the Demon Deacons are as bad as some of these scores show. They’d actually covered seven of eight before the 6-game ATS slide, showing how volatile the point spread can be. That 7-1 ATS stretch included them taking Florida State into overtime. 

Georgia Tech is now firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble after snapping a 14-game losing streak to Duke. The Yellow Jackets won that game 81-77 in overtime after blowing a seven-point lead in the final 30 seconds of regulation. They’ve now clinched a first round bye in the ACC Tournament, which is huge. But this just REEKS of a letdown game and the only time they’ve been favored by this many points in ACC play is when they HOSTED Wake in early January. The fact the line is basically the same on the road means there’s value on the home dog and I’m going to take it. Ga Tech is just 3-5 SU on the road this season. 8* Wake Forest

10* Hawaii (7:00 ET): I’ve got Hawaii rated as the better team here and I don’t think whatever “home court advantage” exists in 2021 is enough to justify UC Davis being a slight favorite in this Big West matchup Friday night. UC Davis is on a five-game win streak, but three of the last four victories have been by two points with two of them coming in overtime. Hawaii has also been successful in close games recently as their last three victories have been by a total of six points. But they are 0-6 ATS L6 and I think they’re due to end that unusual streak. 

Hawaii swept its two games with Long Beach State last weekend, winning 78-76 and 79-76. Those games took place out in Honolulu and both times the Warriors had to rally from halftime deficits. This will be just the second trip to the mainland since the end of January. The other one resulted in a split of two games with CS Northridge. Having been favored in each of its last four games, I see some value on Hawaii here against a UC Davis team that often struggles to defend. 

The host Aggies are allowing opponents to shoot 49.3% for the year when they are at home. Now the defense has gotten a bit better during the five-game win streak as they’ve allowed more than 66 just once. At the same time though, they’re not shooting the ball that well, which has been an issue throughout conference play (40.9 FG%). Hawaii has taken 7 of the last 10 meetings, including all four the previous two seasons. A case of the better team getting points here tonight. 10* Hawaii

8* Over Warriors/Suns (10:05 ET): Golden State has now lost two in a row. They usually come up big in this spot and by “usually,” I actually mean “always” as they’ve yet to lose three games in a row at any point this season. Ironically, these B2B defeats came on the heels of the Dubs’ first three-game WIN streak of the season. They fell last night in Portland 108-106. That they weren’t able to score more points against a bad defensive team like the Blazers has to be viewed as terribly disappointing.

Building off last year’s perfect run in the NBA “bubble” the Suns are definitely a team you want to pay attention to in the Western Conference. Winners of 15 of their last 18 games, including the last three, they are now in second place ahead of both the Clippers and Lakers. They just beat the Lakers 114-104 on Tuesday. It was the third straight game and fifth time in the last six that they held the opposition to 104 or lower. That’s really impressive, but six of their last eight games (including vs. the Lakers) have still gone Over. 

The Under is 6-0 the L6 times these teams have met. The most recent meeting took place in late January and saw Phoenix win 114-93. Golden State had a dreadful shooting night there, but I expect better from them tonight as they are still quite capable of a big night, like when they made over 60% against Charlotte last week. Outside of Steph Curry, no one stepped up last night. Expect a player or two to step up here and Phoenix is shooting 50% its L5 games. 8* Over Warriors/Suns

10* Arizona State (9:00 ET): FYI - this game will be broadcast on ESPN2. Arizona State and Colorado both come into tonight on three-game winning streaks. However, that’s where the similarities end as the season has gone MUCH better for the Buffaloes. I’ve previously stated that I think CU is probably the best team in the Pac 12. However, if there is a “bone to pick” in Boulder, it’s that the Buffs oftentimes “play down” to their competition. Coming off wins over USC and UCLA, I think that might be the case here. 

Arizona State has had a dreadful season at the betting window as they are 4-16 ATS. But the Sun Devils have not only won three straight, but also six of their last nine games. The last three were all in Tempe and they were favored against Washington twice and Washington State last Saturday. They failed to cover the last two, so they’re now 0-9 ATS the L9 times they’ve been favored. But it’s a pretty big number they’re GETTING here tonight and I like it as the Sun Devils have suffered only three double digit losses since 2021 began. 

This is also Colorado’s final regular season game (ASU has one more, at Utah) and they’ve already clinched a 1st round bye in the Pac 12 Tournament. So the tendency for a “let down” is even more prevalent. It’s not like Senior Night means what it normally does. The Buffaloes have already lost to Cal and Washington as a big favorite and while those came on the road, they are still just 1-7 ATS when facing a team with a losing record past the 15-game mark in the L3 seasons. 10* Arizona State

8* Over Heat/Pelicans (8:35 ET): I realize that Miami sometimes can be a low-scoring team (finished with just 80 points Tuesday vs. Atlanta), but New Orleans’ games almost always end up being high-scoring and that’s how I think this one will end up. The Pelicans have seen 11 of their last 12 games stay Under the total. The exception was a 117-114 loss to San Antonio where the O/U line was 232. That is the only time in the last seven games NO failed to score at least 120 points. 

Miami has been held to 85 points or less six different times this year, which is the most in the entire league. But the 80 they scored Tuesday marked a new season-low as they couldn’t hit “water from a boat” early on, especially from behind the arc. They missed 13 of their first 15 three-point attempts and were never really in the game. You’ve gotta expect better shooting tonight, even if Bam Adebayo and/or Jimmy Butler sit. It helps that they are facing a Pelicans team that is 29th in defensive efficiency and lets teams hit nearly 40% from 3-pt range. 

New Orleans is also coming off a loss, theirs by a score of 128-124 to Chicago. The fact the Pelicans have scored 120 or more in seven of their last nine games, but gone only 4-5 SU should tell you all you need to know about their defensive capabilities. Not surprisingly, they have the highest Over percentage in the league. The Heat are 5-1 Over following a double digit loss at home. 8* Over Heat/Pelicans

10* Memphis (8:05 ET): This year’s Bucks team just doesn’t seem as strong compared to the previous two seasons. They are third in the Eastern Conference and were just trounced (at home) by Denver, 128-97, Tuesday night. I concede that there are several underlying metrics that indicate Milwaukee is still the best team in the East. They’ve won five in a row before the Nuggets loss. But they have a losing record on the road (7-9 SU/6-10 ATS) and tonight they are in Memphis. 

The Grizzlies have won B2B games to get back over the Mendoza Line. They are 16-15 SU on the season and in ninth place in the much tougher Western Conference. Strangely, they’ve not been all that good at home (7-10 SU), although they did recently defeat the Clippers by 28 here. Each of their last two wins were on the road and they were blowouts, particularly the one vs. Houston (133-84). More recently, they won in D.C., beating the Wizards 125-111 as a 1-point dog. 

Both teams have been dealing with some key absences of late and with this being the last game before the Break, most of those players figure to remain out. But it does look as if Kyle Anderson is set to return for the Grizz and he’s the team’s best outside shooter. Memphis has had a different leading scorer in each of its last three wins, so they don’t necessarily rely on one player. At the defensive end, they’ve allowed an average of just 102 points the L5 games. Having also scored at least 122 in three of the last four, the Grizzlies should easily cover tonight. 10* Memphis

8* Bradley (6:00 ET): I think we’ve got ourselves a “false favorite” here in the 1st round of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, meaning the WRONG team is favored. Now I’d obviously be even MORE “all in” on Bradley were they not dealing with several suspensions. But my own power ratings say the Braves should be the ones favored here over 9-seed Southern Illinois, who I think was the worst team in the entire MVC during the regular season. About a month ago, these teams split a pair of meetings in Peoria, but SIU’s win came by just a single point. 

Now those two meetings did come before the suspensions that were handed down to four Bradley players. To address the “elephant in the room,” those suspensions came about due to an ongoing police report. But the suspensions also didn’t stop the Braves from stunning Drake this past weekend, 67-61 as an 8.5-point home dog. Drake is probably a NCAA Tournament team, whether or not they win this Tournament. The previous four games had not been good for Bradley, but Saturday’s upset tells me they can still beat the worst team in the Missouri Valley. 

Southern Illinois lost a couple close ones to Loyola Chicago last weekend. One of the games even went to overtime. But this is a team that has just ONE win by greater than three points going back to the start of the 2021 calendar year! The Salukis are on a 3-0 ATS win streak right now, but were obviously huge dogs in both games against Loyola. They’ve been favored away from home (this game is in St. Louis) only one other time this season and that was the very first game (vs. SE Missouri State). Since opening 7-0 SU, they are just 4-13 SU overall. 8* Bradley

8* Idaho State (9:05 ET): While not a lot of people are going to be playing this matchup tonight, it already feels like the sharp money is on Idaho State. The Bengals are certainly not going to attract a lot of attention from the public, but this is a great spot to take them. They did just lose two in a row at home, both to Montana. But the games were close (decided by a total of seven points) and ISU hasn’t been this big of an underdog since it covered the spread at Utah back on December 8th. 

Now there’s a reason the spread is so large for tonight. Eastern Washington leads the Big Sky with an 11-2 SU conference record and has won its last nine games. They’ve covered the spread in the last five and are 7-2 ATS L9. But a two-week layoff probably came at the wrong time. The Eagles haven’t played since winning at Montana on February 22nd and could very well be “out of rhythm” for tonight. That’s a concern when laying such a big number at the betting window. 

Idaho State is 6-2 ATS on the road this season. For all their dominance, Eastern Washington has been asked to lay 12.5 or more points only one time at home. That was against last place Idaho, who is 1-20 SU. Idaho State is better than they are being given credit for. They are a perfect 4-0 ATS coming off a conference loss. They are tied for 4th in the Big Sky and while there’s a big gap between the top three and everyone else, it’s a respectable place to be. Take the points. 8* Idaho State

10* UNLV (9:00 ET): This is a golden opportunity for UNLV to possibly spring an upset. That may seem like a shocking statement considering how well San Diego State has played recently. But the Rebels almost always seem to give the Aztecs fits as the last four meetings have all been decided by single digits with three of those final margins being four points or less. The last time the teams met was just over a year ago and UNLV won that one (on the road) 66-63 as 14.5-point underdogs. 

The Aztecs have swept their last five opponents, winning 10 in a row overall with nine of the wins coming by 12 or more. They are ranked #19 in the latest AP Poll (#21 in Coaches). However, they’ve really been feasting on the bottom of the Mountain West with eight of those 10 victories coming against teams in the lower half of the standings. They had a lot more trouble last weekend with a good Boise State team as those wins came by just 4 and 12 points. The 12-point victory is completely misleading as that game went to OT.

SDSU’s regular season was supposed to end Saturday, but this is a make-up game. UNLV has another make-up game coming Saturday at Wyoming. So it is their final home game before the MWC Tournament (played here in Vegas). The Rebels have won three of four, including a big comeback against Fresno State on Friday. Over its last eight games, UNLV has been beaten by more than three points only one time. They are 8-3 SU at home and averaging 12.6 more PPG than they allow. Take the points. 10* UNLV

10* Over Magic/Hawks (8:05 ET): In their first game under interim coach Nate McMillan, Atlanta picked up a much needed victory last night in Miami. It didn’t take many points to do so (just 94) as the Heat were held under 85 points for a NBA-high sixth time this season (they finished with just 80). Truthfully, it didn’t take long to figure out what the final result would be. Miami opened the game by missing 13 of its first 15 three-point attempts and never really recovered. The 80 points scored were a season-low for them. 

Coming off a game like that, it may seem a little strange that I’m liking the Hawks to go Over the total tonight. But I think the number of points allowed last night had less to do with Atlanta’s defense and more with it being just an “off-night” for the Heat. For the season, the Hawks are still allowing 112.2 PPG on 46.6% shooting. They are in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. Last night was the fewest points allowed by Atlanta in a game all season. It’s a given they’ll allow many more tonight.

At the same time, I expect the Hawks own shooting to improve as well. Trae Young has been struggling recently. It’s the first time he’s gone three consecutive games without scoring at least 20 at least once. He has just 50 points in the three games. But facing a team that just gave up 130 points in its last game should change all that. Orlando has actually allowed 124+ points in three straight, so they are really struggling at that end of the floor right now. The Over is 11-5 the L16 times in Atlanta has been in a back to back. 10* Over Hawks/Magic

8* Utah (7:00 ET): Oregon State has been one of the best bets in the country over the last two months as they are 12-1-1 ATS their L14 games including six straight covers. This is actually the Beavers’ second six-game ATS win streak during that time. The first ended with a push against Washington State (they won that game by two) then they were annihilated 79-48 at Colorado. Since then, yes they are 6-0 ATS, but only 3-3 SU. OSU has won two straight, both on the road, but I feel their “mojo” runs out here as they play a third straight road game against a revenge-minded Utah squad. Lay the short number in this one. 

On Saturday, Utah showed what it is capable of as they beat USC 71-61 right here in Salt Lake City. The Utes were 4.5-point underdogs in that one, as you figured they might be considering they were up against the team many feel is the best in the Pac 12 this year. But the Utes played an almost flawless second half and went on to record its first win of the season against a Top 25 opponent. However, that’s a little misleading as they've also beaten Colorado (before the Buffaloes were ranked). 

Utah is far better than its 10-11 SU record as there have been a few losses this year where they blew large halftime leads. They’ve beaten USC, Colorado and Arizona, which is no small achievement. One team they did not beat was Oregon State as two weeks ago it was an 18-point loss in Corvallis. Interestingly enough, the Utes were favored (by two) to win that day. I think we’re getting a real “discount” on them at home tonight as the Beavers average only 62.1 PPG away from home while the Utes allow just 64.1 PPG at home. Prior to winning its last two games, OSU was just 1-6 SU in road games. 8* Utah 

10* Under Suns/Lakers (10:05 ET): Should be a good game here. The Suns are most definitely “hot” and a “team on the rise” (see what I did there?) in the Western Conference. They’ve gone 14-3 SU since Jan 28 and have established themselves as a top four team (in the West). They’ve held four of their last five opponents to 100 points or less, the lone exception being a wild loss at home to Charlotte last Wednesday. They’ve since won at both Chicago (106-97) and Minnesota (118-99). 

The challenge will obviously be greater here as the Suns face the defending NBA Champion Lakers. However, things haven’t been all that great in LA recently. There was a four-game losing streak that culminated with a beatdown at the hands of the Jazz. Clearly, LeBron James misses the injured Anthony Davis. But like what we’ve seen from Phoenix of late, the Lakers quickly got back to playing defense. They come into tonight having won two in a row as they held Portland to 93 and Golden State to 91 points. 

The Lakers are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency (by a pretty comfortable margin) and allow just 105.6 PPG. Five of their last six games have seen either they or the opponent held below 100. The one exception was an overtime loss to the Wizards, whose games are almost always high-scoring. Phoenix also happens to be in the top six in defensive efficiency and they are also second to last in tempo, meaning their games - on average - feature the second fewest number of possessions in the league. Fewer possessions = less scoring. The L4 meetings here in LA have all stayed Under. 10* Under Suns/Lakers

10* Illinois (7:00 ET): You’ve gotta hand it to Michigan. Since returning to action (season paused for 3 weeks due to COVID), the Wolverines have faced Wisconsin, Ohio State, Iowa and Indiana. They not only beat all four, they covered the spread in every game. They also beat Rutgers on 2/18, but were denied a cover on the final shot of the game. The end result of this is that the Wolverines are now ranked #2 in the country (thanks to Baylor losing Saturday). They’ll faced their fourth Top 25 opponent in the L16 days here and that opponent is #4 Illinois.

The Fighting Illini could again be short-handed Tuesday as leading scorer Ayo Dosunmo is still dealing with a broken nose. But they didn’t have him Saturday when they went to Madison and beat Wisconsin 74-69 as a 4.5-point dog. Nor did they have him in a 16-point win at Nebraska. They actually led wire to wire against Wisconsin, despite it being their third game in five days and not having their leading scorer. This is a team with just one loss in its last 10 games. Even before that, they always deserved to be considered among the very best teams in the country.

This number is clearly inflated in light of Dosunmu’s uncertain status. To be clear, I’m taking the points regardless. Four of the Illini’s six losses this season have been by six points or less. My own personal power rankings put this number at +4. Illinois has been an underdog only three times all season and won two of the three outright. Michigan has undoubtedly been excellent, but they are also “due” for a slip-up. Illinois is a better team than Ohio State and better defensively than Iowa. Kofi Cockburn has really stepped up in Dosunmo’s absence and if the latter can play here, consider it a bonus. 10* Illinois

8* South Carolina (6:30 ET): So, here’s the thing. For much of this season, I’ve been saying Arkansas was a whole heck of a lot better than people think. Wouldn’t you know, the Razorbacks are now on a 9-game SEC win streak and have climbed to #12 (in the country!) in the polls? Now I think they’re being slightly overrated! It’s time to “sell high” on the Hogs, at least temporarily, as they travel to Columbia Tuesday night to face a South Carolina team that’s off a 21-point win at Georgia. 

That 21-point win snapped a six-game losing streak for the Gamecocks as they are near the bottom of the SEC standings. But you wouldn’t have known that by watching them Saturday as they raced out to a double digit halftime lead and were up by as many as 25 in the 2H. There’s something about playing Georgia that brings out the best in South Carolina as they’ve now beaten the Bulldogs 10 straight times, including 83-59 earlier in the year. Now they’ll try and win B2B SEC games for the first time this season. 

I’m not convinced the home team can win outright tonight, but I do like them plus the points. Arkansas is just 4-4 SU away from Fayetteville with the two most recent wins coming by a total of six points.  The Razorbacks actually trailed LSU by 10 in the first half Saturday (this was at home) so the 8-point win was a little misleading. Keep your eyes on South Carolina’s Jermain Couisnard, who had a season-high 23 points over the weekend. Arkansas hasn’t been great defending the 3-point line on the road (allowing 40%), which is why they give up an average of 82.4 PPG away from home. This is the Gamecocks’ home finale, so they’ll be motivated. 8* South Carolina

8* Oregon (9:00 ET): Oregon has taken 9 of the last 11 meetings from Arizona, including six straight. Each of the last three have been really close, however don’t look for that to be the case tonight. It all boils down to motivation as Arizona is playing its final game due to a postseason ban. Oregon is rolling right now (won 7 of 8) and trying to lock down the top seed for the Pac 12 Tournament. Tonight should be a much easier win for the Ducks than it was in Tucson a few weeks ago. Lay the points. 

Oregon just completed a three-game road trip on Saturday with a 74-63 win over Cal as nine-point chalk. They led wire to wire. The team’s only loss in its last eight games came at the start of the road trip, exactly one week ago at USC. There’s no shame in that loss. Ever since putting the COVID issues behind them, the Ducks have really looked great and I consider them to be the third best team in the league, behind Colorado and USC. They are 9-2 here at home where they allow only 62.8 PPG. 

Arizona is 5th in the Pac 12, which is an accurate representation of where they are at in the conference pecking order. They come into tonight on a three-game win streak, which includes a win at USC, but the other two victories were against Washington State and Washington. They only won by one (75-74) on Saturday and that was against perhaps the worst team in the conference. The game-winner came with just 5.2 seconds remaining. While the Wildcats usually dominate the glass, that wasn’t the case in the 1st game with the Ducks. 8* Oregon

10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Turns out the Jazz aren’t infallible after all as they just dropped a game in Miami Friday, 124-116 as 6.5-point favorites. Now they did immediately bounce back with a 124-109 road win against sorry Orlando. With that win and cover, Utah is now an incredible 23-3 SU and 22-4 ATS its last 26 games. But as I’ve written before, maybe we shouldn’t be *THAT* surprised about the team’s SU record considering it has gone off as the favorite in all but two games this season. 

Now the ATS record is clearly impressive and there’s no denying the Jazz have been the league’s best team to this point. They’ve outscored the opposition by 9.7 PPG. However, can they possibly continue covering the spread at this rate? I don’t think so. Tonight they are laying a hefty number to a Pelicans team that I feel is better than its overall record. New Orleans is off B2B close losses, both on the road, against Milwaukee and San Antonio. They are now just 11th in the Western Conference and five games below .500. 

Given that the Pelicans’ were the 8-seed in LY’s playoffs and expected to be better in 2020-21, their current standing has to be considered a disappointment. But, once again, I believe they are better than the record shows. Zion Williamson has been a beast and the team posted the league’s best offensive efficiency rating in the month of February. Now defense has been a much different story and facing the league’s most prolific three-point shooting team doesn’t sound like a good matchup. However, I believe the Pelicans will score enough tonight to “keep pace.” Take the points. 10* New Orleans

10* Over UMass/Saint Louis (6:00 ET): It’s been a really challenging regular season for both of these teams, even by 2020-21 standards. For UMass, the season did not even get underway until December 11th and they’ve only gotten 12 games in. Still, the Minutemen are set to finish with a winning record for the first time in six years. Saint Louis was once considered a Top 25 team, but a LONG pause in its season (played only one game in January) really seems to have set them back. No longer are the Billikens a lock to make the NCAA Tournament and they need a strong finish, not just here, but in the A-10 Tourney as well. 

Something else these teams have in common is lots of Unders. Saint Louis has gone Under in its last seven games while UMass is 5-0 Under its last five. The Minutemen are off a 75-69 loss at Richmond where they never led and shot just 25.9% from three-point range. It was only their second loss in the last seven games though. Saint Louis won on Friday, ironically against Richmond, 72-67 as they not only shot exceptionally well (54.5% from 3-pt range), but also played great defense (held Richmond to 24 first half points). 

Despite the recent rash of Unders from both teams, I see this one sneaking Over the total. UMass has five double digit scorers and is averaging 76.8 points per game. Saint Louis averages 78.9 PPG at home. The Billikens may not shoot the ball as well here as they did in their last game, but the Minutemen should see improved shooting from their performance against Richmond. Saint Louis is also a beast on the boards and should get plenty of second chance opportunities tonight. The Over is 6-0 in UMass’ last six Monday games. 10* Over UMass/Saint Louis

10* New York (8:05 ET): This is WAY too much respect for a Pistons team that is in last place in the Eastern Conference. While I don’t think Detroit is necessarily the worst team in the East, that’s a pretty low bar. Meanwhile, the Knicks may actually be for real as they battled back to defeat Indiana 110-107 last night to get back to .500 for the first time in over a month. That’s good enough for 5th in the conference, a shocking place for a team that no one expected to do well this season.

Julius Randle led the way last night with 28 points and 10 rebounds for the Knicks. It was their second consecutive win as well as the sixth in the last eight games. How is it that the Knicks are beating expectations? In a word, “defense.” They lead the entire NBA in scoring defense (shocking!) and give up 5.2 PPG fewer than the next best team in the East! Tonight they are facing one of the worst offensive teams in the league in Detroit, who is 27th in effective field goal percentage.

The Pistons fell behind by as many as 17 early against Sacramento on Friday, then ended up blowing an eight-point 4Q lead. It’s been that kind of year in the Motor City. The team has won just one of its last six and topped 107 (points) just one time in that stretch (and it wasn’t the game they won). They’re more short-handed compared to the Knicks right now and the fact the Pistons are 6-0 ATS this season vs. Atlantic Division teams seems like a statistical oddity. The key to that ATS record is they are usually big underdogs. Not here. 10* New York

10* Florida International (3:00 ET): It’s been a REALLY rough stretch for FIU as they’ve not only lost 12 in a row straight up to D-I opposition, but they’re also just 1-11 ATS in those games! The Panthers’ only win since January 8th came against Florida Memorial. What’s so odd about all of this is that they got off to a decent start to the season as they stood at 8-3 SU after the first 11 games. The bottom has completely dropped out, but for several reasons (see below) I think they’re catching today’s opponent at a most opportune time.

Western Kentucky stepped out of conference play earlier this week and that did not go well for them. They were thumped 81-57 at Houston. Now the Hilltoppers are 6-0 L6 C-USA games and Houston is a top 10 team in the country. So you’d think that WKU has nothing to “hang their heads” over and, really, they don’t. However, don’t be surprised if this turns into a bit of a “letdown” scenario. Certainly they were expecting to do better against Houston and it’ll be easy to overlook FIU.

Bottom line: it’s a boatload of points we’re getting here. I do not expect an outright upset by any means. But FIU is only being outscored by 1.1 PPG on the year. WKU is only +4.1 PPG on the year and even at home that number only jumps to +9.6. I know the Panthers’ best player just left the program, but I see the team competing on Sunday. WKU is just 5-9 ATS as a favorite, including 0-3 when laying 12.5 or more at home. 10* Florida International

8* San Francisco (10:00 ET): San Francisco is a better team than what they’ve shown recently. The Dons come into this regular season finale on a five-game losing streak, although they at least covered the spread (+9.5) Thursday night at BYU. Before that, they’d failed to cover four in a row and three of those were outright losses as favorites. But most of these losses, save for when they have to face Gonzaga, have been close. I think they go into the WCC Tournament on a “high note” as it should be an easy win tonight at Pacific. 

Pacific also hasn’t had much to cheer about lately. They’ve dropped 7 of their last 10 and two of those three wins came against an atrocious Portland team that is the worst in the whole WCC. The other was against San Diego, who is in second to last place. Thursday saw the Tigers lose an ugly one, 56-48 at St. Mary’s as they were held to just 32.8% shooting including 2 of 9 from three-point range. It was also the sixth time in the last 11 Pacific games they were kept under 60 points. 

Incredibly, USF has been held to just 38.2% shooting while allowing 56.0% shooting during its five game losing streak. That can’t continue. As I just mentioned, Pacific is not a great offensive team (below 30% for the year from 3-point range!) and the Dons are still only allowing 30.7% shooting from behind the arc on the road this season. I just can’t see them losing for a sixth straight time. The road team has covered seven of the last eight meetings. 8* San Francisco

10* Under Nuggets/Thunder (8:05 ET): Second night of a back to back for OKC here. They beat Atlanta last night, 118-109. It was an odd game that saw both teams wearing very similar color jerseys at first. The Thunder made a “wardrobe change” at halftime and it seemed to work, although it was the first half that saw them shoot 60% from the field. I highly doubt we’ll see that kind of shooting again from them and not just because they are 28th in the league in offensive efficiency and 27th in points per game. Their four games previous to last night all stayed Under the total. So will this one.

Denver has had its own issues lately, though not wardrobe related. They’ve lost four of six to fall back into eighth place in the Western Conference. That’s still a whole heck of a lot better than where Oklahoma City is at (12th), but the Nuggets were in the Conference Finals last season and expect to finish high. Ironically, I think they’re better than their record this year, something I did NOT believe to be the case each of the L2 seasons. 

These teams just met two weeks ago and the final score was 97-95 with Denver winning at home. They combined to miss 52 of 72 three-point attempts. A little known fact with the Nuggets is that they play at the third slowest tempo in the league, so there are a fewer number of possessions in their games and thus fewer chances to score. Over the L5 games, the Thunder have defended well, allowing an average of just 103 PPG. Three of Denver’s last four games would have stayed Under tonight’s total as would have seven of the last nine Thunder games. 10* Under Nuggets/Thunder

10* Under Florida State/North Carolina (4:00 ET): Florida State’s reputation precedes itself here as the total is very high for this matchup with North Carolina. That’s due in large part to the Seminoles’ incredible run of Overs, which now stands at 11 straight games, a streak which dates all the way back to late December. Not to be outdone, UNC has been a “boon” for Over bettors as well. The Over is 3-0 their L3 and 8-3 their L11. When these teams met last month in Tallahassee, the ‘Noles won 82-75. 

However, it is notable that the O/U line in that first meeting was “only” 143.5. That’s a double digit difference compared to today’s O/U line. Obviously, an increase had to be expected. But I think the oddsmakers have gone a bit “overboard” on this one, possibly trying to “suck the public in.” This will be the highest O/U line for any FSU game this season while North Carolina has had only one higher and that was back in early December vs. Iowa, one of the highest scoring teams in the country that also isn’t great defensively.

Florida State’s scoring average predictably dips on the road, so I don’t see them matching some of their recent point totals. They’ve only played five road games all season! Two of them marked their lowest scoring games of the year, a 77-67 loss at Clemson and a 76-65 loss at Georgia Tech. North Carolina just got torched by Marquette, but that was after holding its three previous opponents all to 62 points or less. The Tar Heels are 12-5 Under following a game where they allowed 80+ points. 10* Under Florida State/North Carolina

10* Under Blazers/Lakers (10:05 ET): The Lakers are really reeling right now as Anthony Davis is hurt and they’ve lost four in a row. It was pretty clear watching Wednesday’s 114-89 loss to the Jazz that LeBron James is being forced to shoulder too much of the load and is overextended right now. Wednesday was also the third time in the last four games that the Lakers failed to score 100 points. That’s just terrible. On the bright side, the team has still managed to retain the top spot in the defensive efficiency ratings. 

Portland is also on a losing streak (three games) and dealing with injuries. They’ve been without both CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic for a while now. At first, they were making due. But it now seems as if the injuries to two of the team’s three best players are starting to catch up. A bad sign for the Blazers is that they have already suffered six 20+ point losses this season. Another is that they are 29th in the league in defensive efficiency rating. However, it was a close loss to Denver Tuesday night (111-106) and the game stayed Under. 

That’s the way I see this one going as well. Just too many injuries on both sides. The Lakers are probably getting Dennis Schroeder back, but by their own admission, the rotation is a mess right now. Portland actually held Denver to 42.6% shooting, a good sign. The Lakers are 3-0 Under this season when coming off a double digit loss and 9-1 Under when facing a team that has a winning record. The Blazers are 18-13 SU on the year. 10* Under Blazers/Lakers

8* Tarleton State (8:00 ET): My own personal power ratings say the oddsmakers are still underrating Tarleton State. Now the Texans are by no means a great team, or even a good one, but I think they deserve far more respect than what they are getting here at home vs. New Mexico State tonight. It was exactly one week ago that I backed Tarleton State and they ended up winning at Dixie State by a score of 77-59. While they lost the follow-up (Saturday), I still believe they’re underrated here. 

New Mexico State is coming off a split of its own last weekend as they won one and lost one at home vs. Utah Valley State. The key is they won the second game. It has been almost three months since the Aggies won B2B games and when they did it was the first two games of the season, both of which were against non-DI opponents. COVID-19 really wreaked havoc on NMSU’s early season schedule, but they’ve played six games in February and gone 3-3 SU. They are 1-2 SU/ATS as a road favorite this season. 

Last Friday I said it was hard to justify Dixie State being a favorite against anyone. This week I’m saying it’s just as difficult to justify NMSU being a road favorite, especially one of this size. Tarleton State is 4-2 SU at home and while most of those wins were against non-DI teams, they’ve averaged 88.7 PPG. New Mexico State shoots just 27.2% from three-point range on the road while Tarleton State shoots at 40% for the year from there. Not only can the home team cover this one, they can win the game outright. 8* Tarleton State

8* Little Rock (7:30 ET): Little Rock has really hit the skids of late by losing its last six games. They were favored to win in each of the last four, so it’s REALLY been a disappointing stretch. The Trojans got swept by Texas State, Arkansas State and LA Monroe. However, key to understanding this streak is the fact that only one game was played here at home and that was only a two-point loss to Arkansas State. The team is back in Little Rock tonight and I like their chances against Louisiana, who is not sound defensively. 

These Sun Belt teams have already met twice this year, both times in Lafayette, and they split the pair. Both games were decided by just two points and interesting enough the Trojans were favored both times. So it certainly seems as if we’re getting a “discount” on them for tonight’s “rubber match” and the obvious explanation for that has been their poor recent form. Now their win in Lafayette earlier this season did see the Trojans come back from 10 down at the half to win in OT. But the loss was even crazier as the lights in the Cajun Dome briefly turned red on the final possession, clearly screwing with Little Rock’s final possession. It was absurd that the refs did nothing. 

While Little Rock continues to struggle from three-point range, they do lead the Sun Belt in 2-point FG% and free throw rate. So I believe they are going to be able to score plenty tonight against the team with the worst defensive efficiency rating in the conference. Louisiana gives up 77.8 PPG on the road and is just 1-7 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5. The time is right for Little Rock to snap its long (and somewhat shocking) losing streak. 8* Little Rock

8* Bradley (7:00 ET): So there is a bit of a risk involved here as Bradley continues to be without three suspended players, including their two top leading scorers. (The suspensions are a part of an ongoing police investigation). The three games they’ve played since the suspensions have NOT gone well for the Braves as they’re 0-3 SU/ATS. However, the Braves get a break tonight in that Drake will be without its leading scorer (Shanquan Hemphill) and I don’t think that’s been properly accounted for in this line. Take the points. 

Bradley has been a massive underachiever this year in the Missouri Valley as they were projected to finish third and even got one first place vote in the preseason poll. Instead, they are 5-11 SU in conference play, which is tied for second worst. Despite the suspensions, the Braves still found themselves favored last Thursday here at home vs. Illinois State. They haven’t played since, so that’s a full week off to prepare for one of the toughest teams in the MVC. It should do the home dog some good. 

Drake’s absurd ATS run seems to be never ending as the Bulldogs are now 55-30 ATS their L85 games, including 18-4 this season. They’ve now won four straight since getting blown out at home by Loyola Chicago two weeks ago, which was a game I faded the Bulldogs. This is the first meeting of the year with Bradley and obviously a game Drake “can’t” lose, given that they are currently tied w/ Loyola a top the MVC standings. But playing w/o their leading scorer, the spread is just too high. 8* Bradley

10* Colorado (9:00 ET): Colorado has beaten USC five straight times, covering all but once and that was last year here in Boulder when they won 70-66 as a 9.5-point favorite. They’ve already beaten the Trojans once this season and that was on New Year’s Eve, 72-62 as a 4-point underdog. I’ve been quite vocal for months now that CU is a Top 25 caliber team and tonight is their chance to prove it. It speaks volumes that they are favored here against the #19 team in the country. I know it’s a home game, but I’m betting big on the Buffs tonight in a game they desperately need to have. 

Colorado is currently 4th in the Pac 12 standings, though I think it’s them and USC that are the two best teams. They trail the Trojans by 2.5 games with three more to play, but sweeping the season series would go a long way in keeping their chances alive to win the conference. A loss tonight and they’d be officially eliminated. Saturday saw the Buffaloes snap their first losing streak of this season (just two games) by beating Oregon State 61-57. They did not cover, dropping them to 2-6 ATS L8 games, but it’s only a small number we’re having to lay in this one. 

USC responded from its own loss by beating Oregon last time out. It was a very impressive effort against what had been a red hot Ducks team, however that game took place on Monday, which puts the Trojans at a bit of a disadvantage here. They’ve had just two days off between games while CU has had four. The Buffs have been very impressive at home this season, winning by an average of almost 19 PPG. USC’s third leading scorer (Isaiah Mobley) missed the Oregon game w/ a calf injury and is questionable to play here. I don’t think the Trojans will be getting off to the same kind of start we saw Monday (led by 21 at the break). 10* Colorado

10* LA Clippers (8:05 ET): The Clippers look to win two in a row for the first time in 10 days as they travel to Memphis tonight. The Grizzlies have been struggling (lost 8 of 12), so a win here should be a formality for the road team. Then comes the matter of covering the spread. That’s something the Clips have done in five of the last seven games, including rather easily on Tuesday when they smashed Washington 135-116. Paul George and Kawhi Leonard combined for 62 points in what was the duo’s third straight game on the court together. When those two are both healthy, this is obviously one of the best teams in the NBA. I don’t think they’ll have much difficulty covering the number tonight.

Memphis has not only lost its last two games, but they also failed to score 100 points both times. Monday’s 102-92 loss to the Mavericks came on the heels of an embarrassing 128-97 loss to the Suns here at home. The last three teams that the Grizzlies have defeated are: Detroit, OKC and Sacramento. Their only other win since Feb 1 came against a Charlotte team that was in the second night of a back to back. 

Injuries have been a problem all season for the Grizz and they are still without the services of Dillon Brooks. This would be a hard matchup for them even if fully healthy, but they’re nowhere close to that right now. The Clippers are #2 in the league in offensive efficiency right now and Memphis has allowed its previous five opponents to shoot nearly 50% from the floor. As a road favorite, the Clips are on a 44-20 ATS run. 10* LA Clippers

8* Iowa (7:00 ET): It’s a top 10 battle in Ann Arbor Thursday night as #3 Michigan faces #9 Iowa. This is the second straight Top 10 opponent for the Wolverines as they just outlasted Ohio State 92-87 on Sunday as a 2-point road favorite. That made it three straight wins for the Maize and Blue since they got back on the court following a three-week absence. While it’s tough to “poke holes” in a team that’s 16-1 SU on the season, it should be pointed out that those last three wins have all been by eight points or less. 

Iowa has won four straight, three of them by double digits. Two were on the road, at Michigan State and at Wisconsin, and the Hawkeyes won those games by a combined 45 points! The one close one came Sunday as they beat Penn State by only six, 74-68 as a 10-point favorite. The Hawkeyes actually trailed at the half in that one, though there was plenty of cause for celebration as Luke Garza became the program’s all-time leading scorer. Also, Iowa’s defense has gotten much better over the L5 games as they’re holding opponents to just 36% shooting.

Something about Iowa being an underdog is that three of their six losses this year have been by five points or less. I’m going to take the points here as the teams are rated almost even in my own power ratings. Yes, I’ve got Iowa rated better than the team Michigan just beat, Ohio State. The Wolverines also had to rally back from their own halftime deficit against Wisconsin. The fact they are playing two straight top 10 opponents is tough while the third time should be the charm for Iowa against top five teams (lost to Gonzaga & Illinois). 8* Iowa

8* LA Lakers (10:05 ET): Roughly halfway through the third quarter Monday night, I thought I had an easy winner with Charlotte +12. After all, they were leading the Jazz outright by 11 points! But Utah, as they are apt to do, stormed back to win for the 21st time in the last 23 games. Not only that, they covered the 12-point spread rather easily as the final score was 132-110! I’m not joking here when I say they made 28 of 55 three-point attempts. That was a franchise record for makes and 19 of them came from bench players. Utah has already made 500 threes this season, needing just 31 games to do so, a league-record.

Elsewhere on Monday night, the Lakers blew all of a 17-point lead and fell to the Wizards 127-124 in overtime. That was the third straight loss for the NBA Champs, the first that’s happened this season. Obviously, missing Anthony Davis hurts and LeBron James is playing a lot of minutes as a result. James has now logged the third most minutes of any player in the league, something Lakers’ fans certainly don’t want to see from the 36-year old. Before everyone starts overreacting though, I’ll point out the Lakers were off to 22-7 start before this losing streak began. They’ll be fine. They’re still a top four team in net efficiency.

Utah is #1 in all categories right now and tonight will mark the 30th time they’ve been favored in 32 games. So it really shouldn’t be THAT big of a surprise to see them doing so well. Still though, it is shocking to see them laying this many points to the Lakers. I’m going to grab the points here as LA certainly isn’t accustomed to being an underdog, especially one of this size. The only previous game this season where they were getting points was at Milwaukee (+1.5) and they won outright. This is the most points they’ve gotten in any game since the end of the 2018-19 season. 8* LA Lakers

10* Tennessee (9:00 ET): I’m going all in on the Vols Wednesday as they visit in-state rival Vandy. Tennessee is off a loss here (to Kentucky) and is just 3-3 SU in its last six games. This slide has dropped them to #25 in the rankings, but I’m not that worried as they remain much higher in my own power ratings and are a top five team in defensive efficiency. It would certainly appear as if we’re getting a real “discount” on UT tonight considering they were 21.5-point favorites the first time they faced Vandy, a game they won comfortably, 81-61. I’ll gladly lay the number on the road here.

Vanderbilt is last in the SEC with a 2-10 SU conference record. After recording that second win on February 13th, 72-51 at Mississippi State, the Commodores have subsequently dropped B2B games by the same 82-78 score. They were against Kentucky and Alabama. But note they actually trailed UK by as much as 17 and while they were more competitive vs. Bama, they were also down double digits in the 2H there. The fact the Commies come in having not suffered an ATS loss in their L7 games (6-0-1) has obviously played a significant role in this line being shorter than it should. I’d pump the brakes on calling Vandy “competitive.”

Tennessee shot poorly vs. Kentucky (35.3 FG%) with leading scorer Springer finishing with only four points. They also were outworked on the glass with Josiah-Jordan James sitting for a second straight game. Whether or not James returns, I expect the Volunteers to improve in all areas tonight. Not only did they shoot well in the first game vs. Vandy, they scored 93 against South Carolina (with James sitting) last Wednesday. Meanwhile, I can’t see Vandy shooting 10 of 23 from 3-point range again, like they did vs. Bama. I know this game is in Nashville, but the line shouldn’t be 15 points off from where it was when the teams played in Knoxville. 10* Tennessee

8* Texas (9:00 ET): This is a critical game for #14 Texas. While there’s no doubt that they’re heading to the NCAA Tournament, the Longhorns are off a loss here at home (84-82 to West Virginia) and only 2-4 SU their last six games overall. They’re also just 1-7 ATS L8 and now they welcome in #17 Kansas, who just made a big move up the latest rankings. The Jayhawks are on a 5-0 SU/ATS run and coming off a wire to wire victory over Texas Tech. But seeing as what happened the last time these teams played (Texas won by 25 in Lawrence), I’ve got no hesitation about laying the short number here. 

While they led wire to wire Saturday, KU did allow a Texas Tech team that hadn’t played in 10 days to cut the lead down to three in the final minute. Looking at the 5-game win streak, it’s not all that impressive when you consider three of the wins were at the expense of Iowa State and Kansas State, the bottom two teams in the Big 12. Certainly nothing was impressive when the Jayhawks hosted Texas on January 2nd as they were handed their worst home loss ever under HC Bill Self. Don’t forget this team had fallen out of the rankings prior to this winning run. 

Texas led WVU by as many as 19 early in the second half, so that’s a game they clearly should have won. They wilted late and the end result was their fourth loss in Austin in the last eight games. All four were against ranked teams, but the Longhorns need to be better at home. They should certainly be confident here after what they did to Kansas the last time and a win would give the program’s 1st ever season-sweep of the Jayhawks. I think Shaka Smart’s team delivers. 8* Texas

8* Oklahoma (9:00 ET): While I may not think that #7 Oklahoma is as good as its ranking, they shouldn’t have much trouble with Kansas State Tuesday night. I say that based on a number of factors, the most obvious being a 76-50 win over the Wildcats last month. That thrashing in Norman actually snapped an 0-5 ATS run against K-State, but let’s not sugarcoat how UGLY things have been in Manhattan this season. The Wildcats are just 6-18 SU, including 2-13 in Big 12 play.

Now Kansas State did defeat TCU on the road Saturday, 62-54 as a seven-point underdog. But that was their first win in 2021, snapping a 13-game losing streak. They trailed by five late, but a rare strong closing effort got them the ‘W’. But don’t expect any kind of “carryover” effect to tonight. The Wildcats have yet to win a single Big 12 home game this season and they are 3-11 ATS overall in the “Little Apple.” They are 0-2 ATS this season when trying to avenge a 20+ point loss. 

Oklahoma won at Iowa State on Saturday, it’s eight victory in the last nine games. While it was a 66-56 final in Ames, the Sooners could not cover as 12-point favorites. But they led at one point by 21, so I’d call it a dominant effort. So too was the first meeting with Kansas State as OU allowed just 36.1% shooting, including 3 of 15 from three-point range. Look for more of the same this go around as the Sooners make it B2B double digit victories. 8* Oklahoma

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): If the Magic are favored, then you know the competition has got to be pretty weak. Sure enough, they are hosting the Pistons tonight. Detroit is the last place team in the Eastern Conference, having dropped three straight to fall to 8-22 SU on the year. Meanwhile, Orlando is actually playing well of late with three straight wins getting them within a game of the top 10. Remember, the new playoff format for this year has the teams that finish 7th-10th in the conference involved in a play-in scenario. 

Wouldn’t you know that Orlando’s most recent win came at the expense of Detroit? It was 105-96 here Sunday night as the Magic also covered as 3.5-point chalk. That followed upset victories over New York and Golden State, both of which came here at home. The Magic have been battling injuries all season long and thus have been a shell of the team that made the playoffs as an 8-seed last year. But both Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier have been on fire recently. Vucevic went for 37-12 on Sunday after a triple double against Golden State. Fournier is averaging 25.3 points in the L3 games. 

An injury to starting point guard Delon Wright (out two weeks) has seemingly made things go from bad to worse in the Motor City. Not that the Pistons were all that great with Wright in the lineup, but the offense has REALLY struggled since he went down. It’s been B2B games under 100 points, which is just terrible in today’s NBA and it’s tough to expect much here from a team that’s just 2-14 SU on the road and playing five rookies. 10* Orlando

10* Georgia Tech (7:00 ET): Similar to what I predicted would happen with Missouri, #17 Virginia Tech is a team that should start to tumble down the rankings. It’s been 17 days since the Hokies last played a game. Back on Feb 6th, they were able to squeak by a very undermanned Miami team 80-76 in overtime, but did not cover the spread. It will be interesting to see how they now respond from such a long layoff. Georgia Tech is no slouch and just won by 27 at Miami, obviously a margin far greater than what Va Tech won by there. 

While Va Tech has been on hiatus, Georgia Tech has played four games. They’ve covered the last three, beating Pitt and losing by only two at Clemson. The Yellow Jackets also hold a win over Florida State, who is arguably the best team in the entire ACC this season. The 87-60 win at Miami was the program’s largest road win ever in ACC play and they led 48-18 at halftime. This is an experienced team for HC Josh Pastner with four players that have 1,000+ career points. Only one other team in the country can claim that. GT is desperate to end a decade long NCAA Tourney drought. 

Even before the three straight postponements, Va Tech had been without second leading scorer Tyrece Radford. So that’s something else they’ve got to overcome. This is a team that would barely make my Top 40, let alone Top 25. They’ve had good fortune in going 6-1 SU in games decided by seven points or less. One game that was NOT close was LY’s visit down to Atlanta, which the Hokies lost 76-57. It’s telling that the #16 team in the country is such a short favorite at home vs. an unranked foe. Take the points. 10* Georgia Tech

10* Charlotte (9:05 ET): Saturday saw the Jazz suffer what was just their second defeat since January 6th as they went down at the hands of the Clippers, 116-112. No shame there, especially since it was the second of back to back road games against the Clips. As I’ve said before, Utah’s straight up record (24-6) should not be that surprising when you consider that they’ve gone off as the betting favorite in 28 of those 30 games. It is very impressive that they are 19-3 ATS L22 games, but you have to figure that some of these larger pointspreads are going to start to “catch up with them.” Tonight looks like one of those nights to me.

Charlotte was pegged to finish at the bottom of the Eastern Conference by most, but they’ve been surprisingly competitive, going 14-15 straight up. That’s good enough for 8th place in the standings right now and considering just how weak the East seems to be, the Hornets have a legit shot at making the playoffs this year or at least the play-in round. Saturday saw them beat Golden State 102-100 as they took advantage of Draymond Green foolishly “losing his cool” in the final minute. 

The Jazz have not been DD favorites all that often during this incredible ATS run. It is obviously very difficult to continue winning by large margins in this league. They haven’t dropped B2B games SU in over a month and don’t figure to lose here, but the spread seems too high. Charlotte is very much an average team, not a bad one, and they have been a DD dog only three times all season. They are 2-1 ATS in those games w/ the one non-cover coming in the second night of a back to back. After playing the Clippers twice and having an upcoming game vs. the Lakers on Wednesday, this is a “sandwich spot” for the Jazz. 10* Charlotte

10* Elon (7:00 ET): Elon is near the bottom of the CAA standings, however, they’ll enter tonight’s game with William & Mary pretty confident. It was just 48 hours ago that they blew out the Tribe, 75-54 as a 2.5-point dog. That was on the road as well. Led by Darius Buford’s career-high 27 points, the Phoenix jumped out to a massive 44-23 halftime advantage and never looked back. W&M leading scorer Luke Loewe finished with only five points on 2 of 11 shooting. 

While I do not think it will be THAT easy for Elon this time around, expect them to get the job done at home tonight. Saturday was their second win in a row as they won at College of Charleston (as an eight-point dog) 66-55 on Valentine’s Day. Tonight will be just the SECOND home game for the Phoenix since the New Year! They have not won at home since December 16th against Campbell, but that’s a little misleading as they’ve played only two home games since then. I am expecting them to be VERY motivated tonight as they now close out the regular season with three consecutive home games. 

William & Mary is 8-2 ATS on the road this season, including three outright upsets in their last three tries. But with four of the Tribe’s six victories this year coming by five points or less, they easily could have a worse record. Two of their wins have come by exactly one point. This team was projected to finish last in the Colonial back in the preseason poll and I haven’t even mentioned yet that Saturday was their first time on the court in nearly a month. It showed and I don’t think they can turn things around in 48 hours against the same opponent. 10* Elon

8* SIU Edwardsville (6:00 ET): SIU Edwardsville hasn’t had much to cheer about this season, but the Cougars actually have some reasons for optimism Monday despite being a double digit dog at home. First off, they’ve had Morehead State’s number of late, at least at the betting window where they’ve covered seven of the last eight head to head meetings. They won outright the first time they played this season, 69-65 (as a 5-pt road dog) back on December 18th. Looking at the line for this rematch, it just doesn’t make sense when compared to the number (and result!) of that first encounter. 

Now things quickly went downhill for SIU Edwardsville after that upset win three months ago. Their season was essentially paused for the next month with eight straight postponements. Since returning to the court, they are just 5-10 and the last four games, all double digit losses, have been ugly. But three of those came on the road. The first meeting with Morehead State was as good as the Cougars have looked all season. I think that’s significant. 

Also significant is the fact this is Morehead State’s fourth consecutive road game. They are coming off a 10-point win at Tenn-Martin, which is the Eagles’ 10th win in the last 11 games overall. Morehead State shot 56% Saturday, but only 35% in the first game vs. SIU Edwardsville.  Make no mistake about it, recent form has “jacked up” this line. But I just can’t see why a team would be getting only five on the road, win outright, then be getting double digits at home. It’s a great value on the home dog here, so “hold your nose” and take the points. 8* SIU Edwardsville

10* Over Valparaiso/So Illinois (5:00 ET): Valpo came through for me in a big way earlier in the week, easily covering a massive 20.5-point spread against a very good Loyola Chicago team. The ATS result was never in doubt as the Crusaders allowed just 54 points in the game and held the Ramblers to 38.5% shooting. They actually led outright at the half. Still though, this is a team that hasn’t had much reason to celebrate recently as they’ve lost six of their last eight games to fall way off the pace in the Missouri Valley. 

Southern Illinois isn’t doing any better than Valpo this season. While the Salukis did manage to go 6-0 against the non-conference schedule, they didn’t really have any quality wins (Butler?) and are just 4-10 SU in conference play. They’ve failed to score even 60 points in any of the last four games, one of which they did manage to win (against last place Illinois State). It was another ugly shooting night earlier this week when SIU lost here in Carbondale to Missouri State by a score of 68-53.

Despite all the low point totals posted by these two teams recently, I’m “holding my nose” and taking the Over in this one. When the total is 133 points or lower, Southern Illinois is 5-1 Over this season. The 53 points scored on Wednesday matched a season-low, set in the first game vs. Missouri State. For the year, the Salukis are averaging 68.5 PPG at home. The last time Valparaiso was held to 52 points and faced a different opponent the next time out, they went for 70 and that too was on the road (at N Iowa). 10* Over Valparaiso/Southern Illinois

10* Boston (3:30 ET): There’s been a lot of discourse on why the Celtics are only 15-14 SU this year. Personally, I don’t think there’s much reason to worry as they are still 4th in the Eastern Conference. They won Friday night over Atlanta, 121-109, avenging a loss two nights prior and now they look to make it three wins in the last four games. The Pelicans have more reason to be concerned with where they’re at as B2B losses have them down in 12th in Western Conference. They are just atrocious at the defensive end (29th in efficiency). 

New Orleans has lost five of six overall and allowed at least 123 points in all five defeats. The most recent came at the hands of Phoenix Friday night as they let the Suns shoot 58% on the way to 132 points. It was the third time in those last six games that the Pelicans’ opponent shot 58% or better from the floor. That’s really hideous. Phoenix made 22 of its 39 three-point attempts, which is a shocking percentage and it certainly didn’t help that NO scored only 12 points in the fourth, a season-low for any quarter this season. 

Boston actually led Atlanta by as many as 27 Friday night, so it was a pretty dominant effort. They shot 55.6% from the floor, a season-best, so they’ve got to be salivating a bit at the prospect of facing this Pelicans team. Kemba Walker, who sat out the game the Celtics lost to the Hawks, came back to score a season-high 28 on Friday. New Orleans is just 2-5 SU/ATS in games where the total is 230 or higher. 10* Boston

9* St. Bonaventure (3:30 ET): After turning in a perfect 7-0 record in the month of January, the Bonnies have dropped two of three games here in February. You might recall that their 70-59 loss to Saint Louis on 2/6 was a 10* Game of the Week winner for me. After quickly bouncing back w/ an 86-73 win over LaSalle, the Bonnies lost again - by only three points - at VCU two Fridays ago. They haven’t taken the court in nine days as Thursday’s scheduled game vs. George Mason was postponed due to weather.

This will be Davidson’s first “real’ game since January 24th vs. UMass. The Wildcats have been dealing with COVID-19 and as a result have played just one time in February. It was 48 hours ago against Southern Virginia, a non D-I team, and you can guess how that one went (Davidson won 101-51). While it was the Wildcats’ fifth straight victory, look at the teams they beat. In addition to a non D-I team, they’ve faced UMass, Fordham, LaSalle and St. Joe’s. That’s the three worst teams (UMass excluded) in the conference. 

St. Bonaventure certainly won’t be lacking for motivation on Sunday as they are 1-7 SU/ATS the L8 meetings (0-4 L4) with Davidson and haven’t beaten them in regulation since 2016. I know Davidson is perfect (3-0) ATS as an underdog in 2020-21, but the Bonnies are 6-0 SU at home with an average margin of victory of 15.7 PPG. They also haven’t dropped B2B games this season. The long layoff between conference games definitely hurts Davidson here. 9* St. Bonaventure

8* Portland (10:05 ET): How are the Blazers doing it? Despite missing their second and third best players (McCollum, Nurkic), they have won six straight to get to fourth in Western Conference standings. They’ve covered the spread in all six games as well! They’ve still got the best player (Damian Lillard) and he and the rest of the team should have little difficulty scoring tonight on a Washington team that is as bad as any defensively in this league. The Wizards give up 119.5 PPG, which is why they are just 9-17 SU overall.

Now the Wiz have won three in a row. But all those wins - over Boston, Houston and Denver - did come at home. I see no reason why they should be getting this much respect, on the road, against one of the hottest teams in the league. It was earlier this month that the Trail Blazers came to the Nation’s Capital and handed the Wizards a 132-121 defeat. Since then, the Blazers are 7-1 SU and ATS. Washington shot 55% in that first meeting (and still lost), a number they almost certainly will NOT match tonight.

Washington has scored 130+ in B2B games and used a huge second quarter to overcome an early 17-point deficit against Denver. But their poor defense cannot be ignored. Ironically, a poor defensive efficiency rating is the lone issue I can identify with the Blazers, but the Wizards are one of the few teams lower than them in that regard. Lillard scored 43 in the win over New Orleans Wednesday. The Wizards are 0-2 SU/ATS the previous two seasons when on a 3-game win streak. 8* Portland