8* Over Hawks/Hornets (7:05 ET): Charlotte just can't get "out of its own way" as they lost another close one on Wednesday, at home, to the Pelicans (by a score of 101-96). That doesn't even add to their already mystifying 0-14 SU record the L2 seasons in games decided by three points or less. Something to consider when evaluating this team is that - despite their 19-27 SU record - they have the 8th best point differential in the Eastern Conference and aren't much worse than Cleveland in that department! But tonight's focus is on the total w/ their game against Atlanta. I wouldn't want to lay pts w/ Charlotte anyway, but there's a bit of history here that suggests a high-scoring game "has" to be on the horizon. Take the Over.

Here's the deal: the Under has hit the last 10 times these Southeast Division rivals have met. That's quite the streak. Now they haven't met since very early this season w/ Charlotte winning 109-91 here at home. Neither team shot particularly well in that game and the Hornets actually rallied back from a 56-49 halftime deficit. Typically, they've been on the wrong end of those kind of situations this season. Despite not shooting the ball particularly well at home, they're still averaging 105.9 PPG though. Lately, there's been an uptick in their scoring, up to 112.8 ppg, over the last five contests. They've also averaged a similar number in division games this year. They'd gone Over in four straight before the loss to the Pelicans.

Atlanta has stayed Under in each of its last five games, but the bigger story for them is that they've won three of those. However, all those games were at home. On the road, this team is giving up an average of 109.3 points per game, a big reason why they are 4-19 SU in such games. They are still a bottom tier team in defensive efficiency as well (tied for 23rd). Like Charlotte, they are coming off a loss, 108-93 to Toronto. It was the third time in the last four games they failed to break 100 pts. But the shooting should improve from Weds night when they were below 40% from the field. The same could be said for Charlotte as well. I don't necessarily think that this O/U line is alarmingly low, rather I just think that we're "due" for this matchup to produce an Over. 8* Over Hawks/Hornets

10* BYU (11:00 ET): As is usually the case, the computers and power ranking systems like St. Mary's a lot more than the pollsters due. I'm not saying than one is necessarily "more right" than the other (though I personally usually side w/ numbers over humans), it's just the reality of the situation. In fact, you could say the same for SMU's main rival in the WCC, Gonzaga, as well. The Gaels just beat the Zags, by the way, 74-71 last week in Spokane. Predictably, there was then a bit of a letdown on Saturday when they only beat Pacific by three. However, coming off a four-game road trip, I view this game as being more dangerous for the Gaels. They're facing the #3 team in the WCC and historically have NOT performed well in this spot (read on for more detail). Take the points. 

BYU is the previously unnamed opponent here and they come in w/ a solid 17-4 SU record. They've won four in a row and five of the last six w/ the lone loss coming by a single point, at Pacific. The Cougars also have revenge for a 10-point home loss to SMU back on 12.30. That result dropped them to 1-5 SU/ATS the L6 head to head meetings. Though they did actually lead that December 30th game at halftime (31-29), the Cougars did not shoot well (40.7 FG%) while the Gaels did (50.9 FG%) and that was the difference. Making only five three-pointers certainly didn't help either. Note that - for the year - BYU is shooting 49.3% from the field, including 38.3% from three-point range. So, I'd expect a better offensive showing in this rematch. In fact, BYU has shot better than 50% in 9 of its previous 10 games and is at 54.5% the L5! 

St. Mary's is now 4-23 ATS after playing three consecutive road games. That's after failing to cover against Pacific on Saturday as 10.5-pt road chalk. That game was close throughout (w/ neither team leading by more than seven points) and the Gaels trailed at halftime. Fortunate for them, Pacific isn't very good. BYU is and obviously comes in w/ a ton of motivation. Yes, the Gaels have won 14 in a row, but BYU has won four straight - all by 15 pts or greater - so they should be feared as a dog, just like SMU was at Gonzaga last Thursday. As a favorite, SMU is just 7-9 ATS this year. 10* BYU

10* Under T'wolves/Warriors (10:35 ET): This shapes up as a really good national TV game Thursday as the best team in the league hosts arguably the most improved team in the league (compared to last year). The former team in question is obviously the Warriors, who have won 10 of 12 to improve to 38-10 on the season, which is three games clear of the second best team out West, Houston. San Antonio is third, but right behind them is Minnesota, who is making good on all the hype they received coming into this season. But they did lose in Portland last night and this is obviously going to be a challenging spot for a young team that could potentially be w/o Jimmy Butler. But the pointspread is also too high for my liking. The total has me intrigued, however, and I'm going w/ the Under.

Tuesday Golden State improved to a perfect 10-0 SU this season when off a SU loss as they beat the Knicks 123-112 here in Oakland (as monster 16.5-pt chalk). Their average margin of victory in those 10 games is now +17.2 PPG. I made the mistake of going Under in that one as the Warriors had a big second half (65 pts) and shot 55.4% for the game. Still, it's not as if the two teams flew past the O/U line (which closed at 226.5). We've got a slightly higher O/U line here and probably for good reason as Minnesota is also in the top 10 in offensive efficiency (Warriors #1), but also not that great defensively. Still though, four of the Warriors' five games previous to the one vs. New York resulted in Unders.

Minnesota has gone Over in three straight as last night saw them surrender 123 pts to Portland. But as is the case w/ Golden State, recent Timberwolves' games have been higher scoring than normal. Their last five have averaged 225.8 PPG, up considerably from the YTD average of 214.7. With the Dubs, we're looking at an average of 233.6 points the last five games as opposed to 223.1 for the season. Though they have scored at least 114 pts in all three games w/o Butler thus far, I can't see that continuing for the T'wolves, especially against a Warriors team that remains top five in the league in defensive efficiency. 10* Under T'wolves/Warriors

8* Miami FL (8:00 ET): Though many are making the case that it is the Big 12 that is the best conference in the land, if you believe Joe Lunardi, the ACC will be sending the most teams to the Big Dance (9). These are two of them in what, on paper, looks to be an even battle. But two things separate Miami from Louisville in this matchup. One is obviously home court advantage. I'm pretty impressed that the Hurricanes "are where they are" despite having played just seven times so far here in Coral Gables (6-1 SU, only loss is to Duke). Second is defense. Louisville is a good defensive team, but Miami is better and ranks in the top 10 nationally in adjusted efficiency (according to KenPom). I'll lay the short number here.

Both squads are in off wins. Louisville has won four straight, in fact, and was also on a 5-game ATS run before failing to cover Sunday at home vs. Boston College. I'm impressed that the Cardinals have been able to withstand all the off the court turmoil and remain a tournament team. The ugly departure of Rick Pitino obviously had the potential to really set the program back, but that hasn't really happened. But, away from home, they're just 3-3 straight up. They're also just 1-4 SU vs. the RPI Top 50 w/ the one win coming by four over Florida State. They have not taken on the most challenging of ACC schedules, having avoided Duke, North Carolina and Virginia thus far. They don't even play Duke or UNC until mid-February. They did lead big over B.C. on Sunday before winning by only eight, but that was after a double OT win over Notre Dame and coming from behind to beat Va Tech. 

Miami is off a really nice win at NC State over the weekend where they shot 58 percent from the field. While that kind of offensive display will be difficult, if not impossible, to duplicate here, I don't think they'll have to. As stated earlier, the Canes are top 10 in defensive efficiency. They've outscored visiting teams by over 18 PPG this season. This is their first home game since losing here to Duke, whom they led by 13 in the second half. This is a really critical game for "The U" given they've dropped three of five overall. L'ville is in 2nd place in the ACC right now, but they are pretty clearly NOT the league's 2nd best team. 8* Miami FL

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The spot the 76ers find themselves in tonight has traditionally not been a good one for them. Monday saw them lose to the Grizzlies, as 2.5-pt favorites, and when off a SU loss as chalk they're just 1-8 ATS this season (2-7 SU). However, note that loss came on the road and this team is still getting accustomed to the favorite role this season, let alone a road favorite. Also, it's not as if they were blown out. It was a four-point loss two nights ago and a game they probably "should" have won (outscored 31-18 in 4Q). Their opponent for tonight is Chicago and despite the resurgence over the second quarter of the season, I remain unsold. Yes, the Bulls have covered six straight, but this will be their third road game in five nights and they're off a double overtime loss to boot. Lay the number.

While the Sixers blew a 10-pt lead w/ less than 10 minutes to go on Monday, the Bulls happened to blow a 17-pt second half lead in New Orleans, so their loss was even more disappointing. Chicago had no answer for New Orleans' dynamic duo of Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, who combined for 78 points. They allowed the Pelicans to go on a 23-4 run towards the end of regulation. While the Bulls still covered, I think it's fair to question what they'll have left in the tank here at the end of a four-game road trip. This remains a bottom tier team in offensive efficiency as they rank 28th out of 30 in that category. They have not been a good road team this season as is evident by a 7-17 SU record and the fact they have been outscored by over eight points per game.

Chicago dug itself far too deep an early season hole to be thinking about the playoffs this year, but Philly is definitely thinking playoffs. Right now, they are 8th in the East w/ a one-game lead over the Pistons. So a win here, as a home favorite, is a real necessity. Prior to the loss at Memphis, they had beaten Boston and Milwaukee, both in fairly convincing fashion. The defense shockingly ranks third in the league in efficiency, so I don't expect them to give up a ton of points here even though their pace of play remains quite fast. Something worth noting here is that when these teams met in Chicago, back in December, the Sixers were favorites. They did lose, blowing a late nine-point lead, but given that they were favored in that 1st matchup, the spread should be several points higher here. 10* Philadelphia

8* Indiana (7:05 ET): Phoenix looks to complete a perfect 4-0 ATS road trip here, but I just can't see that happening against an Indiana team that "ate their lunch" just 10 days ago in a 120-97 massacre. That was in Phoenix and the Pacers were 3.5-pt road chalk there, so I really can't understand this line - at all. Admittedly, the Indiana offense has sputtered some of late, failing to even score 100 pts in three consecutive contests. But they are off an upset win over San Antonio nonetheless, as six-point road dogs. The Suns are the second worst team in the league in my eyes. Again, this is the tail end of a long road trip and I think it's fair to question what they may have left in the tank, even though they had last night off. Lay the points.

Indiana is a top seven team in offensive efficiency, so I think they're due for a breakout performance on that end of the floor. Phoenix is pretty much an ideal opponent in that regard as they are 28th in defensive efficiency, plus we have the fact they gave up 120 to this same opponent (just 10 days ago) to lean on. That game saw the Pacers shoot 54.5% overall, including 11 of 23 from three-point range. That game was never really close as Indiana raced out to a 14-pt lead after the 1st quarter and never looked back. Seven players finished in double figures. The next night, they'd go onto win at Utah and were sitting pretty w/ a three-game win streak. But then came ugly losses at Portland and the Lakers. But closing the road trip w/ a win in San Antonio was no small achievement. The Spurs had previously won 14 straight at home.

The Pacers have had two days to prepare for this game, which is nice when coming off a trip out West. Compare that to the road-weary Suns, who are playing a fourth road game in nine days. Phoenix just lost to Milwaukee, hours after the Bucks fired Jason Kidd. This team simply doesn't win much as they have just two victories in the last eight games overall. Four of those six losses have come by double digits. They have the worst point differential in the league, save for Sacramento. Defensively, they allow more than 112 points per game. Indiana has gone 13-3 SU/11-5 ATS this season vs. foes allowing 106+ PPG. 8* Indiana

8* Under Knicks/Warriors (10:35 ET): New York has gone Over in seven straight, so naturally a battle w/ Golden State would seem destined to be a high-scoring affair. However, this number is just too high in my estimation. The Warriors, despite being the best and most efficient offense in the game today, have gone Under in three straight - all games w/ higher totals than this. Tonight marks their return home after a five-game road trip, which ended w/ a loss in Houston Saturday night (I was on the Rockets!). They'd previously played four Eastern Conference teams and beat them all. Conversely, the Knicks are in the middle of their own seven-game trip and have alternated wins and losses through the first four. I don't see a win tonight nor do I see an Over.

In terms of both points scored and allowed, the Knicks rank right near the middle of the pack. They just allowed 127 points (to the Lakers!) on Sunday, which isn't a good sign, but that was also their most pts allowed in any game this season. Not coincidentally then, we find this to be the highest O/U line for any Knicks game this season and by a pretty substantial margin. While it is true that they've allowed more than 120 pts three times in the last seven games, the previous two instances were overtime affairs, one of them going to two OTs. Both meetings w/ Golden State last year had lower O/U lines and the Under is 2-1 for NY this season if the number is 220 or higher.

Lost in all of the Warriors' success is the fact they are actually a very good defensive team. They are currently tied for 5th in efficiency at that end of the floor and the fact they allow 107.1 PPG is owed to the fact they play at a fast pace. But the number of points allowed does dip down slightly to 105.4 here at home. Warriors' home games "only" average 219.1 PPG as opposed to 222.9 PPG overall. Note both numbers are below tonight's O/U line. Opponents are shooting below 44% against them for the season. The Under is also 6-2 for them this season when taking the court on exactly two days rest. In four all-time meetings, Knicks' leading scorer Kristaps Porzingis has averaged only 10.0 PPG against GSW (though this will be the 1st time he's not saddled w/ Carmelo Anthony). 8* Under Knicks/Warriors

10* Kentucky (9:00 ET): We're not used to seeing Coach Cal in this position very often. His Wildcats have dropped B2B games as well as three of their last five and now find themselves out of the Top 25 for the 1st time since 2014 (when, ironically enough, they ended up making a Final Four run). Remember, this team opened #5 in the country and was in the top 10 as of Christmas Day. But they have yet to beat a single ranked team and aren't even in the top 25 nationally in either offensive or defensive efficiency. Now that we've got all that out of the way, it's time to "buy low." Tonight, UK hosts a Mississippi State squad that's dropped four out of five and is just 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season (4-10 ATS overall). Lay the points.

Until Saturday night, Kentucky had not lost a home game all season. They fell, 66-64 to Florida, the first time in 30 games they lost to a SEC opponent here in Lexington. What are the odds then of it happening two times in a row? I'd say "not likely" considering they did lead the Gators late in that game. Also, in the loss to South Carolina earlier in the week, they had a 14-point lead in the second half. It's got to be especially disheartening to have lost both of those games considering UK held South Carolina and Florida to 37.7% and 33.3% shooting, respectively, from the field. For the season, opponents are barely shooting above 40% against the Wildcats. On offense, they do need to get their act together from behind the arc. 

Fortunately for UK here, Mississippi State does NOT shoot the ball well, particularly on the road. The Bulldogs have won just once away from Starkville this season and are 0-4 SU in "true" road games. You don't have to dig too deep to find out why that is. They average just 58.8 PPG away from home, "thanks" to a 38.1 FG% and they are below 30% from three-point range. So they are really an ideal opponent for Kentucky right now. Furthermore, MSU is just 1-7 ATS this season against teams w/ winning records (Kentucky is 14-5 SU). Last year, UK was a DD favorite in Starkville. This looks like a really good value on Coach Cal and company, who are playing B2B home games for the 1st time in '18. 10* Kentucky

10* Baylor (9:00 ET): The Big XII did not treat me well on Saturday as I came out on the losing end of a couple close games. One of them involved Kansas State, who was able to outlast TCU 73-68 as a 2.5-pt favorite (I had TCU). It was a good week for the Wildcats, who went 2-0 SU, also beating Oklahoma. But both wins came in the Little Apple (at home). Now they hit the road where they have not won since 12.29. Baylor, on the other hand, comes off a deflating three-point loss at Kansas, a place where they still have NEVER won. This sets up as HUGE game as "esteemed" bracketologist Joe Lunardi has both of these teams among the first few OUT of the field of 68 in March. It will be a crippling loss tonight for whomever falls. I'm siding w/ the home team in the "must-win" spot. 

Baylor actually led Kansas by five w/ less than five minutes to go Saturday night. They'd just scored on nine consecutive possessions and rallied back from an 11-pt halftime deficit. Then the wheels came off as the Jayhawks outscored them 14-6 over the final 4:39. The Bears' last five losses to Kansas have come by a combined 20 points, which has to be frustrating. So too is the fact that the team's record isn't better than 12-7 SU, including 2-5 in conference play. Of those five Big 12 losses, three have come by exactly three points each. Six of the team's seven losses have come against Top 25 teams. This is a classic case of a squad being better than its record. Personally, I would have the Bears ranked just outside the top 25 teams in America. 

Kansas State would still be a little lower for me, so factor in the homecourt advantage and Baylor is the play here. The Wildcats have recently come out on the winning end of a number of close games, basically the opposite of Baylor, though they too lost close in Lawrence (to Kansas) - in their case by just a single point. But since 12.20, they've also posted three victories by five points or less. That's in an eight-game span. Key to the Wildcats' victories last week was that they shot the ball exceptionally well; 56.5% and 52.9% respectively from the field in the two games. I don't see that happening tonight on the road. Baylor has only been favored five times this year, but covered four of them. They have NOT shot the ball that well recently, but that should change here at home where they are 38-9 SU the L47 tries. They've outscored visitors this season by an average of almost 19 PPG while holding them below 40% shooting. 10* Baylor

10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): The Chicago Bulls opened the season an abysmal 3-20 SU, looking every bit as bad as the pessimistic projections foretold. However, since that time, a strange improvement has taken hold, one that has seen them go 15-8 SU over the L23 games. They come into tonight having won four of the last five, two of those wins coming by three points or less (one in double OT), however, the last one was as "easy as it gets" as they dispatched Atlanta (on the road!) by a score of 113-97. That same Atlanta team just beat New Orleans not long ago (last Wednesday), but don't be fooled by those disparate results as the Pelicans are clearly the better team here and I expect that to show in the final result tonight. Lay the points.

The Bulls have also covered five straight as their lone SU loss during that stretch came against Golden State. They held the Hawks to 38.0% shooting Saturday while scoring at least 112 pts themselves for a third consecutive contest. However, context is everything and the bottom line is the Bulls are still being outscored by 5.6 pts per 100 possessions, the third worst mark in the entire league. Granted, there's been a big difference between the last 23 games compared to the first 23, but I remain unsold on any kind of renaissance taking place in the Windy City. They are bad road team w/ a record of just 7-16 SU and being outscored by almost nine points per game. Also, they're likely to be w/o PG Kris Dunn here as he suffered a concussion in the Golden State game. 

All-Star starters were just named last week. There were two teams that had multiple players picked. One was obviously Golden State w/ Steph Curry and Kevin Durant. The other was New Orleans w/ Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. This Pelicans team, while not deep, is one the top teams in the West will certainly want to avoid in the 1st round of the playoffs. Right now, it's a close battle for the bottom few spots, but I have the Pelicans ranked as the 6th best team in the Conference. Led by Davis and Cousins, they average more than 110 PPG and are sixth in the league in offensive efficiency. I don't see the Bulls having any answer inside for the "twin towers." Though it was only a seven-point win over Memphis on Saturday (didn't cover), New Orleans led by as many as 21 and never trailed. Also note that they won in Chicago earlier in the year (in a very ugly low-scoring game) and covered as 5.5-pt favorites. With a virtually identical pointspread here at home, there's substantial value on the chalk here. 10* New Orleans 

8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): It seems as if every time the Hornets are set to possibly turn a corner, they shoot themselves in the proverbial foot. The latest instance of this "phenomenon" occurred Saturday, right here at home. Off impressive B2B victories over Detroit and Washington, they were in position to win a third straight game over a top eight team (in the East) as they led Miami by five w/ 34 seconds remaining. Sadly, they lost (on a disputed foul call) 106-105, dropping them to an almost unfathomable 0-14 SU in games decided by three points or less since the start of last season! Fortunately for this underachieving ballclub, tonight they'll host the worst team in the league, that being Sacramento. Don't be scared off by the pointspread in this one - lay it!

Despite an 18-26 SU record, the Hornets have basically scored the same number of points that they have allowed this season! Last year, they actually outscored the opposition, yet finished 36-46 SU. Compare this to the season Sacramento is having as the Kings are now a league-worst 13-32 SU (lost 7 straight) and being outscored by 9.2 ppg, easily the worst mark in the league (next worst is Phoenix at -6.7 ppg). Furthermore, the Kings have the dubious distinction of ranking last in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They're one of only two teams in the league not averaging at least 100 PPG and they're the only team that doesn't average at least one point per possession. In other words, they stink. 

Earlier this month, the Hornets went to Sacramento and destroyed the Kings by a score of 131-111. They were 4-pt favorites there, so little to no adjustment has been made by the oddsmakers for this rematch. On the road this season, the Kings are already being outscored by roughly 12 points per game. They just lost - by 18 - at Memphis, who is the other team in the league not averaging 100 ppg. That marked the third double-digit loss in the last four games and fourth overall during the seven-game skid. To further illustrate their struggles, they've covered just two of the previous 11 games and that's despite being an underdog in nine straight. 8* Charlotte

8* Virginia (6:00 ET): I have a ton of respect for Tony Bennett's Cavailers. The Hoos come ranked #2 in the country and there's no doubt they are in fact one of the best teams in the country. Tonight finds them in search of a 10th straight victory. Granted, they're on the road for just the third time in ACC play and 2nd time in a week. But the pointspread has not really been an issue for this team as they've gone 11-3 ATS as a favorite this season. Their lone loss came at West Virginia back on 12.5. So much of their dominance is predicated on their defense, which gives up the fewest number of points per game in the country at 52.6! Wake Forest, one of the weaker teams in the conference, just doesn't stand a chance here. 

Tuesday saw UVA win at Georgia Tech by a score of 64-48. That was the eighth time this season that an opponent failed to score even 50 pts, which is obviously very impressive. During the current win streak, they have not allowed more than 61 pts in any game and 52 or fewer six times. Here, they face a Wake Forest opponent that can score (made 9+ threes in every ACC game), but the Demon Deacons struggle to defend (allowing 76.8 PPG in ACC play). If Virginia comes anywhere close to what WF is allowing in conference play, then this will be an easy win and cover for the favorite. Last year in Charlottesville, they beat the Demon Deacons 79-62. 

Wake Forest is also only shooting 39.4% overall in ACC play. That's not the kind of number you want to have when facing Virginia. They suffered a fourth straight loss on Thursday, 72-63 at NC State as the Deacons gave up the game's final 11 points. The fact that WF is just 3-9 ATS against teams w/ winning records this year does not bode well considering they are about to embark on a six-game stretch of facing teams that either are currently ranked or have previously spent time in the Top 25 this year. Virginia holds teams below 30% shooting from three-point range, so that's one weapon the Demon Deacons likely can't rely on here. 8* Virginia

8* Boston (1:05 ET): For just the third time this season, we find the Celtics off B2B defeats. One of the previous two instances came all the way back in the third game of the season! Since that time, they've gone 34-10 straight up and the lone losing streak (before the current one) took place right before X-Mas. Now there is zero instances of them losing three straight. So taking them here off B2B losses, both here at home no less, seems prudent. Now there is a pointspread to "worry" about, but fortunately the opponent is Orlando, who is only 5-20 SU on the road this year and getting outscored by six points per game. That's w/ the vast majority of games coming against foes not as good as the Celtics. Lay the points here. 

Now, Orlando has covered four consecutive games, even winning straight up once, that being as a home dog over Minnesota earlier this week. But they reverted back to their losing ways Thursday in Cleveland. While they lost by only one to the struggling Cavs, note that they did trail by as many as 23 points. Cleveland's atrocious defense again let Orlando back in the game, the second time that has happened this month. Note that other than the Magic, Cleveland hasn't beaten anybody in the last three weeks! Here, Orlando will face a far more formidable foe on the defensive end. In fact, Boston ranks #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and #2 points allowed (just 0.3 PPG behind San Antonio). 

This will be the Celtics' third consecutive home game since returning from London (where they rallied back from a huge deficit to defeat the 76ers). Back in Beantown, they then lost to New Orleans on Monday, giving up 116 pts in the process. However, be aware that point total is a little misleading as the game went into overtime. It was then the offense that betrayed the Celtics Thursday night in an 89-80 loss to a highly motivated 76ers team that was seeking revenge. Kyrie Irving didn't even play in that game and as a result the Celtics shot just 40.5% from the floor. Boston is obviously a far more dynamic team offensively w/ Irving on the court. He is expected to return to the lineup today. Orlando, only 12-34 ATS their L46 visits here, is short-handed w/o Nikola Vucevic and Arron Afflalo. They also allow 112.4 PPG on the road, which is very bad obviously. 8* Boston

10* Under Mavs/Blazers (10:05 ET): Right off the bat, this number looked a little high to me. That's probably owed to the fact Portland has gone Over in six of its last seven games. But the one that they didn't was last time out as they held Indiana to only 86 points in a convincing victory. That's a Pacers team that ranks in the top seven in offensive efficiency, mind you. Here they'll be facing a Dallas team that is far less scary on the offensive end of the floor. In fact, the Mavericks rank 24th in the league in points per game, an average largely owed to the fact the play at one of the slowest paces in the entire league. But the Mavs do also rank 10th in points allowed while Portland is 8th. Sounds like an Under to me! 

Dallas has going Under more than they have Over recently. They're 4-1 Under their L5 games. Last Saturday, I took the Under when they played the Lakers and even w/ OT, the game still stayed Under. After two days off, the Mavs then traveled to Denver and lost by a similar score (105-102), although this team there was no OT. Poor foul shooting, at least late in games, is somewhat to blame for the inability to win close. However, the bottom line is that this simply isn't a very high scoring team. The loss to Denver was also misleading in the sense that the Mavs entered the 4th quarter down 17 and took advantage of some lackadaisical Nuggets defense. Dallas scored 33 pts in the 4th quarter after scoring just 42 total in the 2nd & 3rd combined. 

Portland is only 20th in the league in points per game, so like Dallas, they've been a better team this year at the defensive end. It was crazy that they lost six in a row here at home at one point, but they've since responded w/ five straight wins. Thursday vs. Indiana, both teams shot below 40 percent from the field. Very different from the Mavs' last game, the Blazers used defense to pull away in the 4Q, holding the Pacers to just 12 pts. After the recent rash of Overs, we're due to see more Unders start coming in for the Blazers, who are already 20-6 Under in games that they are favored in this season. They are also 5-1 Under this season after holding their previous opponent to 90 pts or less. The Under is 15-7 in all Blazers' home games. 10* Under Mavs/Blazers

8* Houston (8:35 ET): The two top teams in the Western Conference (and the league) square off Saturday night in Houston w/ the Rockets hosting the Warriors. For a good length of time there, the Rockets were not only seriously challenging the Dubs for the top spot in the West, they were leading them in the standings! As things stand as of press time, Golden State has a 4.5 game advantage. Since starting 25-4 SU, Houston has gone 6-8 SU its L14 games including a loss to these Warriors (here at home) back on January 4th. They did not have James Harden in that game, however, and I don't see GSW coming in and winning here again. Therefore, the points are a premium in this marquee showdown on national TV. Take the points.

Something to keep in mind about the Rockets' 6-8 stretch is that they have not been healthy. Even for tonight, they'll have two players - Trevor Ariza and Gerald Green - suspended for their roles in that ridiculous melee w/ the Clippers earlier this week. But, Harden is back and that's what matters as he, Chris Paul and Eric Gordon will all be back together. This is as healthy as the team has been going back to December 13th! Harden returned Thursday and even though he didn't play particularly well (10 pts on 3 of 15 shooting), the Rockets still rolled, 116-98, over a good Minnesota team. The Rockets are really the only team in the league that can match Golden State's efficiency on the offensive end (teams rank 1-2 in that department).

In addition to Houston being healthy for the first time in forever, I also like their chances based on where this game comes up on Golden State's schedule. Tonight marks the Warriors' fifth consecutive road game (last of the trip) over a nine-day span. So fatigue could definitely be a factor for them here. Draymond Green did not play in Wednesday's win at Chicago and is listed as probable here. But let's note there have been some close calls on this trip and they've had to travel alot, including games vs. Toronto and Cleveland. Tonight will mark just the fifth time Houston has been an underdog this year. Two of the previous four have been against Golden State and let the record show they did go to Oakland and win outright earlier in the season when they were healthy. 8* Houston

10* Kentucky (8:15 ET): Not being the favorite in the SEC is certainly irregular in Lexington and coming off a disappointing loss at South Carolina earlier in the week, this shapes up as a very big game for Coach Cal and company. With the ESPN cameras present, I expect a big effort tonight vs. 1st place Florida. Strangely, the Gators come into this game unranked. That had me a little wary of going in on the Wildcats here, but the bottom line is they are a perfect 11-0 SU here at Rupp Arena, outscoring their visitors by 13 points per game. Florida lost its last road game (at Ole Miss) and had a close call in the one before that. It is unlikely that they're going to play anywhere near the level they did vs. Arkansas (in Gainesville) earlier this week. Lay the points.

Tuesday's loss to South Carolina simply should not have happened as Kentucky blew a 14-point second half lead. They led the Gamecocks to 37.7% shooting for the game, including 5 of 23 from three-point range. But it was the Wildcats' own poor shooting from distance that helped doom them as they went 1 for 11 from behind the arc, virtually all of the attempts coming from Kevin Knox. This being a Coach Cal squad, there's a lot of freshman, but unlike past seasons, the head coach has yet to settle in on a lineup. Part of that is PG Quade Green has missed the L2 games w/ a back injury. He's listed as a game time decision for tonight. Also, freshman Jarred Vanderbilt is just getting going. The team was significantly better on defense when he was on the court Tuesday. I just can't see a team this talented struggling offensively again the way it did vs. South Carolina (a top defensive team, mind you). The Wildcats scored only three points over the game's final six minutes and were outscored 36-14 over the final 12:28.

Meanwhile, Florida ripped Arkansas on Wednesday, using a fast start as the catalyst. It also helped that KeVaughn Allen went for 28 points. But the Gators have struggled away from home this season, going just 5-3 straight up and that's primarily due to the defensive end as they are allowing 78.6 points per game in those contests. As I mentioned earlier, they lost at Ole Miss last weekend and before that beat Missouri by only two. Kentucky is a far greater challenge obviously and one I don't think they'll be able to overcome. 10* Kentucky

8* TCU (4:00 ET): Here's another Big 12 battle on Saturday. Check the opening of my analysis on Oklahoma-Oklahoma State for my take on the depth of the conference. Here we have two of the "mid-tier" teams in the conference, though that distinction undersells what TCU has accomplished this season. I have the Horned Frogs ranked in my top 20, despite a 2-4 record in conference play, and the pollsters have them in the Top 25 as well. They picked up a big win earlier in the week, literally, as they routed Iowa State 96-73, snapping a three-game losing skid. Today they pay a visit to a Kansas State team that should be in prime letdown mode after upsetting Oklahoma earlier in the week. Take the points. 

I talked about the Oklahoma-Kansas State result in the analysis for the other Big 12 game in the package, but just to rehash, the Wildcats were able to hold Trae Young, the nation's leading scorer, in check in the 87-69 win as 2-pt dogs. They also forced 20 Sooners' turnovers. Coming off a one-point loss to Kansas last weekend, that was a pretty impressive performance from Kansas State. But can they follow up? History says "no" as they are 1-5 ATS this season after scoring 80+ points the previous game. Furthermore, they shot 56.5% from the field against the Sooners and that's not likely to be repeated here, even though TCU is a weaker defensive team. It's still early, but the Wildcats have yet to string together consecutive conference wins. 

TCU comes in at 14-4 SU overall and all four losses have been by five points or fewer, two of them in overtime. Taking a team that has yet to be blown out, as an underdog, certainly seems like a prudent maneuver. Jamie Dixon's team entered the Iowa State game w/o starting PG Jaylen Fisher (out indefinitely), but it didn't matter as backup Alex Robinson came in and filled the void. All Robinson did was dish out a school record 17 assists. So the Horned Frogs certainly seem okay the position. Kansas State is also w/o its starting PG, Kamau Stokes, who is also listed as out indefinitely. His backup, Barry Brown, is averaging 24.7 PPG. So this one may very well come down to the battle of backup point guards. I'll still side w/ TCU though as they have been the better team all season and remain an underrated side. 8* TCU

8* Oklahoma (2:00 ET): Just in case you hadn't been paying close attention, the Big 12 is absolutely stacked this year. The league could send as many as 8 of its 10 members to the Big Dance in March, which would be quite the remarkable achievement. It's also somewhat of a "top-heavy" conference w/ five teams currently ranked in my top 18, none of whom have emerged as the clear favorite (let's be honest though, would anyone be shocked if Kansas wins the regular season crown again?). Oklahoma is one of those five teams and is off a SU loss here, perhaps its worst of the season, 87-69 at Kansas State. But this afternoon, the Sooners find themselves playing one of the two "also-rans" in the conference, that being Bedlam rival Oklahoma State. I'll lay the short number on the road.

OU has lost just three times this year, all to quality opponents. The infamous "Octagon of Doom" in Manhattan, KS is a tough place to play, so there's no shame in the Sooners losing to Kansas State earlier in the week. But it clearly was a bad performance as leading scorer Trae Young had arguably his roughest night of his outstanding freshman campaign. The Sooners' guard was held to only 20 pts, his fewest in a game since the opener, on 8 of 21 shooting. "I didn't do very well tonight. I played terrible," the freshman guard said. "I blame a lot of the loss on me. All of the loss on me. I didn't play very well tonight," said Young after the game. Obviously, I would expect him to be significantly better tonight. It was 20 turnovers, more than anything else, that prevented OU from coming anywhere close to its scoring average of 93.6 PPG (#1 in the nation!) against KSU.

Now Oklahoma is absolutely NOT the 4th best team in the country (current ranking) right now. They'll drop b/c of Tuesday's loss, however, this remains an ideal bounce back situtation. They've already faced Oklahoma State once and put up 109 pts on them in Norman. Young had 27 pts, 10 assists and 9 rebounds in that game. Keep in mind that not only does Young lead the country in scoring (29.5 PPG), he is also #1 in assists (9.8). Oklahoma State is just 1-6 ATS this season vs. teams averaging 77+ points per game. Though they haven't played since Monday (lost 76-60 at Baylor), having to take a bus home from Waco (inclement weather) does the Pokes no favors coming into this one. 8* Oklahoma 

8* Georgetown (12:00 ET): Patrick Ewing's Hoyas are off an absolutely humiliating loss to Villanova earlier in the week, as they fell 88-56. While there's no shame in losing to one of the best teams in the country, doing so by that kind of margin (at home no less!) is clearly no good. But today, G'town not only gets to stay at home, but face an opponent they've already beaten. In fact, I took them +6.5 when they went to the Big Apple and beat St. John's outright, 69-66, on January 9th. That happens to be the Hoyas' last win as they'd go onto lose at Seton Hall last Saturday, then came the Villanova debacle. But St. John's is in much worse shape right now as the Red Storm remain winless in Big East play at 0-7 SU. Lay the small number.

Georgetown was actually one of the last remaining unbeatens nationally as they opened the season 8-0 SU. But few took them seriously as they took on an incredibly weak non-conference schedule, one that saw them play just a single "true" road game. Sure enough, we've watched them go 4-6 SU the L10 games, including a 2-5 mark in Big East games. But the perception that the Hoyas padded their schedule was well-known and something that I believe created a "desire" to play against them, even at inflated prices. They haven't covered the last two games, but before that they were 5-1-1 ATS their L7. Coming off a terrible loss like the one they took against 'Nova and already having beaten St. John's, I think the Hoyas are pretty clearly undervalued in this spot.

Of course, the Hoyas' recent level of losing does not compare to that of St. John's, who last won a game before X-Mas! There have been numerous close calls in this 0-7 start to Big East play (five losses by 7 pts or less), but that actually works against them here as I seriously doubt they'll be able to match Wednesday's effort at Xavier where they shot 50% from the field, including 11 of 24 from three-point range. This is also the second of B2B road games. Meanwhile, G'town isn't about to let another opponent shoot 60% (like Villanova did Weds) and their own shooting is set to drastically improve as well (four straight games below 40%!). Consider the Hoyas were able to beat St. John's the first time despite shooting only 33.3% and that was on the road! 8* Georgetown

10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): Miami is as hot as any team in the league right now as they've won eight of nine. Remember, though they didn't make the playoffs last year, there was a tremendous second half run where they went 30-11 SU. However, one thing I have to point out here about the Heat is that despite currently being in fourth place in the East, they've been outscored this season. There are seven teams in the East w/ positive point differentials and they are not one of them. So while it may be tempting to lay a small number against a "bad" Brooklyn team, don't fall into the trap. Also, from a scheduling perspective this is not a good spot for Miami. It's their third consecutive road game and fourth game overall in six nights. Take the points.

Brooklyn has lost three straight to fall to 16-29 SU on the season. That awful deal they made w/ Boston a few years back (to land an over the hill Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett) still haunts the franchise as they don't even have a 1st round draft pick this offseason (Cleveland now owns the rights to it via the Kyrie Irving trade). So, it's very likely this franchise will continue to suffer for some time. But, as for the present, it may not be quite as bad as you may think. They're only being outscored by 3.2 ppg this year. Now they have lost five in a row at home. But they only lost by five here to San Antonio on Wednesday and that's despite shooting a pretty woeful 42.2% from the field. They pushed as five-point dogs, but are still 17-7 ATS this season vs. teams w/ a winning record. 

Miami has kept winning in spite of some injuries, but I feel that can't continue. Dion Waiters is done for the year and Tyler Johnson (ankle) is listed as OUT for this game. The last time these played, the Nets actually blew the Heat out, 111-87 as six-point dogs, and that was in Miami! The Heat shot just 33.7% from the field, including a horrific 3 of 26 from three-point range. Given the result though, I just don't understand the line for this one. My own power rankings rate this game as a pick 'em and I have to go back to the number of games the Heat have played recently as something that will catch up to them. I also think they're NOT as good as their won-loss record. The Heat are also just 7-11 ATS when favored this year and this is just the FIFTH time they've been favored on the road. 10* Brooklyn

10* Over St. Bonaventure/Davidson (7:00 ET):  Something has got to give w/ the total in this Atlantic 10 matchup as one of the participants (St. Bonaventure) has gone Over in five straight games and the other (Davidson) has gone Under in five straight. In terms of wins and losses, the two squads are also trending in opposite directions. The Bonnies have dropped three of their last four, including a 14-pt loss at Rhode Island their last time out. Davidson, meanwhile, has won four straight and the last three have all come in dominant fashion as in by 27 points or more! Therefore, it certainly seems a bit odd that the Wildcats would be favored by so little on their homecourt Friday night, but I'm banking on them giving up far more points here than they did against either GW or Fordham, their previous two opponents. Take the Over.

Davidson has played only five home games so far and won them all. They've outscored opponents by an average of 25.6 points in those five games. On the road, they certainly had no problem w/ Fordham on Sunday, winning that game 75-45 as eight-point chalk. It was their second straight game holding the opponent to 45 points, which is "Virginia-like," however, we should note that those two opponents shot 32.7% and 37.2% from the field, respectively. In regards to that Virginia reference, the Hoos rank #1 in the country in defensive efficiency while the Wildcats aren't even the top 100! They actually rank much higher in offensive efficiency (39th), which surprised me. 

Equally as surprising is that St. Bonaventure ranks better in defensively in terms of efficiency. But they still average a healthy 76.7 PPG. They just gave up 87 pts in the loss to Rhode Island Saturday and it's not as if the Rams shot the lights out (only 46.8%). The Bonnies, picked to finish 2nd in the A-10 before the season, have been a disappointment thus far but I wouldn't give up on them just yet. They've averaged nearly 80 PPG their L5. Throw in that Davidson has averaged 83.0 PPG at home this season and we have what should be quite the high-scoring contest. 10* Over St. Bonanventure/Davidson

10* Michigan (9:00 ET): Coming off their huge upset of Michigan State last weekend, I played against the Wolverines on Monday night and was successful in doing so. They barely got by a short-handed Maryland squad (won 68-67 as 8-pt favorites), needing two free throws in the closing seconds just to pull out the SU victory. They even trailed by 10 at halftime and remember, the game was in Ann Arbord. But I can look past that as it was a pretty obvious letdown spot for the now-ranked (#23) Wolverines. Now that it's out of the way, they can concentrate on what appears to be - on paper - a pair of very winnable games coming up. Going back to early December, Michigan has lost only one game and that was by a single point to Purdue, who is perhaps the best team in the country right now. They won't lose here. 

Nebraska is the opponent tonight and the Cornhuskers are coming off three consecutive close games, two of them wins. They edged Illinois 64-63 (as 4-pt chalk) on Monday. Like Michigan's one-point victory that same night, the game was not decided until the final seconds. In Nebraska's case, it was a running three-pointer from James Palmer right before the buzzer sounded that gave them the win. That came on the heels of an overtime loss to Penn State last Friday where I once again faded the Cornhuskers. That was their 1st loss of the year in Lincoln, but I'll continue to maintain this team isn't all that impressive. They've really struggled offensively here in Big 10 play, connecting on only 39.5% of their field goal attempts. That's bad news against a Michigan team allowing just 62.8 PPG for the season.

You'd have to go all the way back to the start of the season to find the last time the Wolverines failed to cover in consecutive games. They're 2-0 SU/ATS thus far as a road favorite, including a win at Iowa earlier this month. Nebraska is still dealing w/ changes to its starting lineup as HC Tim Miles inserted two new starters for the Illinois game and they didn't really yield anything in the way of positive results. After getting a (needed?) scare from Maryland earlier in the week, I'll lay the points w/ Michigan here as they are simply the better team in this matchup. 10* Michigan

10* Under Magic/Cavs (7:05 ET): Cleveland appears to be in some real trouble right now. Not only does their defense rank 29th in efficiency, but they've also now dropped four in a row, the most recent setback coming on MLK Day to rival Golden State (here at home). There's also no sugarcoating what a disaster the three-time reigning Eastern Conference Champs have been at the betting window. There, they're currently a league-worst 12-30-1 ATS including a horrific 6-26 ATS when favored! Therefore, laying the points here is out of the question, even though I do expect them to get back into the win column. The Cavs last win (back on Jan 6th) came against Orlando, but if there's going to be a difference between this game and that one it's that I anticipate far less scoring. Take the Under. 

Last time these teams hooked up, it was a 131-127 final. Cleveland was "humming along," until that 4th quarter that is, when they gave up 40 points to make what was a 20-point game all too close. The defensive issues persist, but no way do I see them giving up 127 pts again to this Magic team, who is still bottom seven in the legaue in offensive efficiency. That game saw both teams shoot exactly 50.0% from the field (rare!) and combine for 29 made three-pointers. It is highly unlikely that those numbers will be duplicated here. For what it's worth, Cleveland failed to even break 100 in its three games immediately following the win over the Magic. Their last two games, vs. Indiana and Golden State, have both stayed Under and both of those teams rank in the top 10 in offensive efficiency (GSW obviously #1).

Orlando is probably in a letdown spot after a rare win as well. They stunned Minnesota two nights ago, winning outright as 8.5-pt home dogs, 108-102. It was just their second win since December 8th (yikes!) and only the fifth since November 10th (double yikes!). It was one of their better defensive efforts in some time, limiting the T'wolves to just 102 points on 43.9% shooting. The injury bug has bitten this team throughout the season and they'll come into this game likely w/o Arron Afflalo (suspension?) and Marreese Speights (personnel reasons). That's in addition to the already M.I.A. Nikola Vucevic, among others. This O/U line is simply too high. 10* Under Magic/Cavs

10* Under Jazz/Kings (10:05 ET): A matchup of two of the five "slowest" (in terms of # of possessions per game), one of them also being the lowest scoring team in the league, seems ideal for an Under play. Sacramento is dead last in the league in offensive efficiency and points per game. Utah is 28th in points per game (ahead of only Memphis and Sacramento). Neither team broke 100 pts in its last game, Utah losing to Indiana (at home) 109-94 and Sacramento losing to OKC 95-88. I simply don't see a lot of points being scored in this game either. Take the Under. 

One thing we can almost certainly count on in this game is better defense from the Jazz than what we saw from them vs. Indiana. They let the Pacers shoot 53.2% from the field, just the 4th time a Jazz opponent was better than 50% in the last month. Utah ranks 6th for the season in points per game allowed. Based on opponent adjustment alone, we can be confident in defensive improvement here. Sacramento shot below 40% in their last game and is the ONLY team in the league not to be averaging a full point per possession. HC Dave Joeger knows his team's "lot" and is consciously making the decision to "go young" while resting some of his veterans. Expect growing pains. Since December 8th, there have been only three times where the Kings have shot at least 50% from the field.

Utah is in the bottom six in points, rebounds and assists per game. They are just 4-15 SU overall the L19 games, a stretch which can be tied to the absence of Rudy Gobert. They have failed to score 100 pts in four of the last six games. The road has been quite unkind as they're only 4-18 SU this year. On average, their games are bottom five in the league in total points per game at just 202.5. (Only San Antonio, Memphis and Boston see fewer). The Jazz do not shoot the ball well as their FG% for the season is only 43.9% on the road. Sacramento, across the board, is the worst offensive team in the league. 10* Under Jazz/Kings

8* Seton Hall (8:30 ET): The Big East is a top-heavy league this year w/ four perceived NCAA Tournament "locks," these being two of them. Ironically, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Creighton ended up finishing ahead of Seton Hall in the standings when all was said and done. But, here, I think the Blue Jays are laying too many points. Sure, they should be highly motivated after being routed by Xavier over the weekend (92-70). But this is a Seton Hall team that's already beaten them once, 90-84 as five point favorites, and given that result and corresponding spread, I'm a little "miffed" by the oddsmakers call for this one. Revenge can often be overrated in this sport and if Creighton does win here, it would likely be by the slimmest of margins.

Prior to beating crushed at Xavier Saturday, Creighton's only loss in its previous 10 games was the one to Seton Hall. The Pirates have really had their number the last couple seasons, taking four of the previous five meetings. The last one, which saw both teams come in on the fringes of the Top 25, saw Seton Hall rally back from a 13-point 2H deficit. Since then, the Pirates' ranking has only continued to rise (currently #19). Creighton, meanwhile, won its next four games, but then was severely outclassed by Xavier. The Blue Jays committed 20 turnovers in the loss and second leading scorer Khyri Thomas was 0 for 8 from the field. This team is 40-18 ATS the last 58x it has been favored, plus 11-0 SU at home this year (averaging 93.5 PPG). So I understand, it's somewhat scary to fade them in this spot. But, realize that Seton Hall is 22-8 ATS the L30x it has been an underdog!

There have been only two instances of the Pirates getting points this season. They won both outright. Both were narrow wins, at Butler and at Louisville, but that's impressive nonetheless. Now, Seton Hall was recently routed as well, losing 84-64 at Marquette last week. But they quickly bounced back to take care of Georgetown, 74-61 as 12-pt chalk, on Saturday. The Pirates come in averaging a healthy 80.0 PPG themselves, so it will be difficult to defeat them by any kind of margin. These teams just seem so close that it seems foolish to want to lay points. 8* Seton Hall

8* New Orleans (7:35 ET): Admittedly, this seems like a difficult spot for the visiting Pelicans, who are off a pretty thrilling overtime victory last night in Boston. But a similar spot (albeit in a different sport) didn't deter me from taking Dallas in NHL last night and nor will it deter me here where once I again I simply bank on the fact that the road team is significantly better than its host. In this case, we only have to lay a short number to go against an Atlanta team that has the worst SU record in all of basketball at 12-31 SU. Seems easy enough, no?

Furthermore, it might be the Hawks that are in prime letdown mode here. On Monday, they upset San Antonio here at home, 102-99 (+5.5). Keep in mind that was a Spurs team that came into the game w/o Kwahi Leonard and then lost Manu Ginobili to injury in the 1st quarter. With an edge in both rebounds and fast break points, it seemed simply as if the Hawks "wanted" that one more than the Spurs did. But something to keep in mind is that this has not been a good team to bet when off a SU victory. They're just 1-10 SU in that role this season, 3-7-1 ATS. With the number so short in this one, a fade is heavily advised. 

New Orleans is looking for a fourth straight win here, which would be a season-high. This is the fourth time they've won three in a row. Anthony Davis has been just plain ridiculous lately w/ 93 pts and 33 rebounds the last two games. Yes, defensively, the Pelicans have their issues. Fortunate for them then that Atlanta isn't a great offensive team. Meanwhile, the Pelicans currently rank 7th in offensive efficiency (average 111.2 PPG). Something else to keep mind here is that New Orleans led Boston by double digits much of the way last night. So don't let the fact the game went into OT fool you. The Pelicans looked like the better side most of the way and that was against the #1 team in the league in defensive efficiency. They now have a winning road record this season. 8* New Orleans

8* Temple (6:00 ET): This is not the same Temple team we've been accustomed to seeing through the years. They have just one conference win; ironically it came at SMU, who had a 33-game home win streak at the time. That's probably the most shocking singular result we've seen in AAC play so far this season. Unfortunately for the Owls though, they couldn't follow up. Saturday saw them lose here at home, in overtime and at the buzzer to UCF, 75-72. They were 7.5-pt favorites as Memphis had not won a road game all season prior to that. In their last five games, the Owls have lost by three points or fewer three times. Similar to yday's winner on Northern Iowa, I find it "curious" that a team near the bottom of their conference would be favored like this. It worked yday, so I'll lay it again!

Tulsa hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire either. They come into tonight's game on a three-game losing skid. They did just take Wichita State to the limit on Saturday, losing only 72-69 as 12.5-pt home dogs. But I say it's fair to question what the Golden Hurricane will have left "in the reserve" here. They led by 10 in the first half, but attempting only five free throws (for the game!) really hurt. Also, while Tulsa may have started 3-0 in AAC play, let's remember how badly they were beaten last week in their most recent road game. It was a 104-71 loss at Houston. Their lone "true" road win this year came at Tulane on New Year's Eve. 

Temple actually has some revenge to exact here as they lost LY's only meeting, 70-68, right here in Philly. They also lost the second meeting of 2016, by 19, at Tulsa. With so many close calls in a 1-6 (SU) stretch, I have to believe the worm will soon "turn" for the Owls. Their shooting also has to improve, right? (Been below 35% three of the last four games). Tulsa allowed its opponents to shoot 55.2% and 50% in its previous two road games. Though they lost close last time out, the Golden Hurricane pulled off a number of close wins earlier in the year (beat UConn in 2OT), so their record could easily be worse. After playing well and coming up short against Wichita State, I see this being a major letdown spot on the road. 8* Temple

10* Northern Iowa (8:00 ET): Needless to say, it had been a very bad stretch of results for Northern Iowa prior to Saturday's 81-76 win and cover (were 4-pt favorites) over Missouri Valley newbie Valaparaiso. They'd lost seven in a row and four of those (all to MVC opponents) had come by seven pts or less. Truth be told, the Panthers' RPI (outdated metric) was always a bit misleading anyway, but still, no one expected these kind of struggles once conference play hit. Good news tonight though; they'll host perennial MVC doormat Drake, a team whose number UNI has had for many years now. The last four matchups - whether your're talking SU or ATS - have all gone the Panthers way and I think they'll make it five straight after tonight. Lay the short number.

Drake actually comes into tonight playing pretty well as they've won six of their last seven overall and are in first place in the Missouri Valley (5-1). Ironically, their lone conference loss came at the hands of Valparaiso, who is the only MVC team that UNI has beaten. But the Bulldogs have had a much different fortune in close games than has UNI, that being they're 3-0 SU in games decided by three points or less so far. It's pretty telling that the last place team in a conference would be favored over the first place team, even at home, isn't it? Drake used a strong 1st half to blow by Evansville over the weekend, 81-65, as they shot 54% from the floor. However, I think you still have to worry about this team away from home where they're just 4-8 SU (7-0 at home) and allowing 81.1 PPG. That includes "true" road games as well as neutral site affairs. 

Prior to beating Valpo, Northern Iowa had lost three in row here in Cedar Falls. That's after winning their first seven here. The key here will be pace of play. Drake is the most efficient offense team in the conference (so far) while Northern Iowa plays at one of the slowest paces in the entire country. I simply can't see teams continuing to make over 40% of their three-point shots against the Panthers moving forward. Nor can I see Drake continuing to shoot as well as it has to this point. Note that, at home, UNI still is allowing only 57 PPG. 10* Northern Iowa

8* Boston (7:35 ET): Without even playing, the Celtics have gotten a lot of help in their quest to finish atop the Eastern Conference this year. Both Toronto and Cleveland have been losing of late, so the Celtics (who have been off for five days) now have a four game lead over the former and 7.5 game lead over the latter. Not that Boston necessarily wanted the time off. They are unbeaten in 2018 and have won seven in a row overall. Their latest triumph came last Thursday over in London where they overcame a 22-pt deficit to beat Philadelphia, 114-103 as 1.5-pt favorites. Tonight's line is every bit as curious as that one was, considering the Celtics remain the top ATS team in the sport. Lay the points against an inferior opponent. 

New Orleans is looking like it might be a playoff team this year. They haven't made the playoffs since being ousted as the 8-seed (by Golden State) three seasons ago. Certainly, it's going to be a tight race w/ four teams battling for those final three spots in the Western Conference as the Pelicans, Clippers, Nuggets and Blazers come into today separated by just one-half game in the standings. So its an important game from the New Orleans side. The Pelicans come off B2B wins, beating Portland and the Knicks, but both games could have gone either way and Sunday's win over the Knicks required overtime. That was w/ 48 pts and 17 rebounds from Anthony Davis and the Pelicans also rallied back from 14 down to start the 4th quarter. It was a fortunate win.

Davis scored 36 against Portland, a game where the team shot almost 55% as a whole. Don't expect those kind of offensive number tonight though against a Boston team that leads the league in defensive efficiency by a comfortable margin. The Celtics are the ONLY team in the league that's allowing less than one point per possession. They are also 18-5 SU at home. New Orleans, meanwhile, is a terrible defensive team as they allow 111.0 PPG, third most in the league and not far from the bottom. Bottom line is that this is a bad matchup for the Pelicans, especially w/ it being their 2nd road game in three nights. Boston is both well rested and 5-1 SU the L3 seasons against New Orleans. 8* Boston

10* Over Warriors/Cavaliers (8:05 ET): Golden State is back to its high-scoring ways (7-1 Over L8 games) and that means big-time trouble for a Cleveland team that is absolutely atrocious defensively. The Cavs come into this game ranked 29th in defensive efficiency, ahead of only lowly Sacramento. So this looks to be a far greater mismatch than what we saw in LY's NBA Finals. Furthermore, the Cavs are reeling right now as they've suffered three consecutive losses, two of them (Minnesota, Toronto) by a combined 62 points and then they blew a 20+ pt lead Friday in Indiana. Perhaps the only silver lining here is that I expect them to shoot much better than they did X-Mas Day in Oakland. As a result, I'm on the Over here.

This is a battle of two top five teams in offensive efficiency. Golden State recently regained the top spot, overtaking Houston. They have averaged 117.2 points per over the L5 games and they're shooting better than 50% from the floor for the season. Steph Curry (returned Saturday) will play tonight, making them all the more dangerous. Saturday's 127-125 win over Toronto is a little misleading in that the Dubs led by as many as 27 (on the road!). They shot a blistering 58% from the floor, the third time in four games they shot 55% or better! Against an inept defensive team like Cleveland, they should be able to name their point total. This may seem like a really high O/U line (it is!), but the Warriors are 6-1 Over this year in games where the number is 230 pts or higher. 

Cleveland is the worst ATS team in the league and has shockingly failed to score 100 pts in three straight games. Prior to the loss to Indiana, they'd given up 127+ pts in three straight, which is quite obviously very terrible. While the defense will continue to struggle here, I do expect more from LeBron James and crew on the offensive end. The last time they faced Golden State (X-Mas Day), they shot just 31.8% overall, which made it a bit a miracle that they only lost by seven (no Curry for GSW though). The Cavs were actually 15 of 36 from three-point range in that game, but only 13 of 52 on two-point attempts! That latter figure will improve dramatically here. So too will GSW's three-point shooting from the last meeting where they went just 10 of 37 w/o Curry. 10* Over Warriors/Cavs

8* Florida State (7:00 ET): Truth be told, I got very lucky w/ the Seminoles on Saturday. Hosting Syracuse, they blew a 10-pt halftime lead and had to go to overtime. But OT was actually a massive break for me as I was laying the points and for most of the second half, it appeared as if they had little shot to cover. The same held true in OT. Thankfully, the game then went into double OT and that's where the 'Noles took over, outscoring the Orange by 11 and getting the shocking cover. Playing on the road 48 hrs later hardly seems like an ideal spot to follow up w/ a play on them, but Boston College I believe is "ripe for the picking here." The Eagles faced Dartmouth over the weekend, making this a large step up in class for them.

B.C. had lost three of four in ACC play prior to beating Dartmouth on Saturday. That includes a 30-pt loss at North Carolina in their last conference game. Dartmouth, predictably, was a much easier task, though the Eagles only led by three at halftime. They took over though after the break, thanks to guard Ky Bowman. Now B.C. did beat Duke here in Chesnut Hill earlier this season. They're 10-1 SU at home overall, outscoring opponents by 13 PPG. That one home loss came to Clemson, by four, right after the New Year. They've already faced most of the ACC heavyweights, not to mention a very good Texas Tech team in the non-conf portion of the schedule. However, I think it's important to remember this was just a nine-win team last season (already 12 wins TY!) including a 2-16 SU record in ACC play. I'm not sure they've improved to the point we should regularly expect them to be winning.

Florida State should still find itself in the Top 25 when the new poll comes out. That's despite sustaining close losses to both Miami and Louisville prior to outlasting Syracuse. There is some concern here w/ leading scorer Terrance Mann potentially out due to a concussion. But the 'Noles are deep enough to overcome that, at least against this opponent. In last year's lone matchup w/ B.C., they won by 32. Has that much really changed in one year's time? The 'Noles were 19-pt favorites for that matchup as well. They have covered 7 of the 10 times they have been favored this season. 8* Florida State

10* Maryland (6:30 ET): The Big 10 has become a lot more wide open, thanks to the sudden struggles of Michigan State. Michigan is one of the teams that recently beat Sparty, doing so on Saturday as they went into East Lansing and prevailed 82-72 as 9.5-pt underdogs. That impressive win for the Wolverines came on the heels of them losing by only one to mighty Purdue. Now comes the inevitable letdown though. It certainly seems dangerous to lay points w/ the Maize and Blue right now, given the emotion involved from the last two games. Maryland won't be lacking in motivation here as it was embarrassed at Ohio State on Thursday, 91-69. Having had the weekend off is a nice edge for the Terps. Take the points.

Maryland has actually suffered two bad defeats in its last three games, the other coming at Michigan State. But other than that, they've played well. They'd won eight of nine heading into the Ohio State game where they shot just 36.7% from the floor while allowing the Buckeyes to make 56.1% of their field goal attempts. Sure enough, bad defense was also the culprit in the loss to Michigan State, but the good news is the Terrapins are 9-2 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 80+ pts the previous game. They just covered in this spot, in between the losses to Michigan State and Ohio State, beating Iowa 91-73 last Sunday. Injuries have taken a big toll on this team recently, but I think the extra time off will be a big "boon" Monday.

Maryland hasn't played many close games recently, but they have been involved in six that were decided by six points or less this year. That includes two Big 10 victories, over Illinois and Penn State. Michigan comes in red hot, having won 8 of 9 w/ the only loss coming to Purdue. But this just seems like a good spot to fade as they're off a huge upset over a rival. They didn't cover their last game as a favorite, beating Illinois by only 10. Also, the last three meetings between these two have all been decided by seven points or less. Maryland won both games last year and I fully anticipate a close game at Crisler Arena tonight. In beating Michigan State, Michigan saw Sparty sink only three of 13 three-point attempts. Maryland will be more prolific than that tonight. 10* Maryland

8* Washington (2:05 ET): This is the second game of a back to back for Milwaukee (who really let me down yday) and third game in four days. An ugly showing Sunday in Miami (scored only 79 pts) made it four consecutive ATS losses (1-3 straight up), but they'll be getting no sympathy here from the Wizards, who are 0-5 ATS their L5 games and have revenge on their minds from a 110-103 loss to the Bucks right here in D.C. nine days ago. Note Washington has been a favorite in all five games it did not cover, so they still carry plenty of respect in the marketplace. They come in averaging a whopping 111.0 PPG at home and I really like this spot for them, given the scheduling set up and revenge angle. Lay the points.

Note that I actually played AGAINST the Wiz Saturday night when they hosted Brooklyn. I caught a major break w/ the Nets being able to force overtime as they trailed by as many as 23 pts. For Washington, that night found them playing in the second game of a back to back (just like Milwaukee here. A lack of consistency in closing out games is a bit of a concern w/ this Washington team as there have been multiple instances this year of them blowing double digit leads and losing. But, I think, being able to still win Saturday night is a step in the right direction. They never trailed in the game, despite it going to OT. Offensively, there are no issues with this team right now. Their top two scorers - Beal and Wall - shot a combined 12 of 38 in the 1st meeting w/ the Bucks, but I can't see that happening again given how poor the Bucks' defense has been of late. Opponents shoot better than 40% from three-point range, on the road, for the season. 

Milwaukee shot only 31.6% from the floor yesterday in its 97-79 loss at Miami. This team has been outscored on the year and is overrated. In fact, they have a worse YTD point differential than do the 16-25 Hornets! I just can't see the winning twice here in D.C. in a nine-day span. Yes, they'll probably shoot significantly better here compared to yday. But a decline in defense should offset that. Interestingly enough, the last visit to the Nation's capital saw the Bucks off a double digit loss and playing the second game of a back to back. But consecutive day games is a rare thing in this league and certainly won't help. 8* Washington

10* UMass (5:00 ET): Looking back at the preseason projections, St. Joe's probably wasn't banking on coming in as an underdog to UMass (even here in Amherst) nor being only 7-8 SU at this point of the season. Keep in mind they recently beat both VCU and St. Bonaventure as well, albeit both at home. The Hawks have been one of the A-10's bigger disappointments thus far and that continued earlier this week when they were beaten by George Mason at the buzzer. Now they find themselves playing a second straight road game for the first time since November. Sure, they're 5-2 ATS as a dog this season, but they've still been outscored by an average of over five points per game in those contests. They have just two wins away from home all year (2-7 SU) w/ the lone "true" road win coming all the way back in the 2nd game against IL-Chicago.

So as you can sense, I'll be on the other side Sunday afternoon. UMass comes in off an 86-79 win over LaSalle (here at home) and an upset at Dayton before that. Not a ton was expected of the Minutemen coming into the season, but they are 8-2 SU at home and that's where this game is taking place! Now the teams has gone to overtime twice in it last three games, winning one and losing the other. They had to overcome a 21-pt deficit against LaSalle on Wednesday and needed a program-record 44 pts from Luwane Pipkins to do it, eventually prevailing 86-79 in OT. That win came on the heels of another come from behind effort, this one at Dayton as eight-point underdogs (won 62-60). Those two close wins were long overdue as previously the Minutemen had gone only 1-5 SU in games decided by six points or less, or overtime. 

I look for UMass to have a strong game offensively here. They already are shooting 47.6% from the floor at home this year, including 39.5% from three-point range. St. Joe's isn't exactly what I'd call "stout" defensively as they allow 76.7 PPG. Meanwhile, the Hawks have somehow been able to average 77.8 PPG in conference play despite barely shooting 40% from the floor. That isn't likely to continue. Coming off a loss at the buzzer, you have to question the Hawks mindset here and I think they'll struggle to contain Pipkins and the Minutemen's other top scorer, Carl Pierre, as well. 10* UMass

10* Milwaukee (1:05 ET): Truthfully, I'm not too surprised where each of these teams currently reside in the Eastern Conference pecking order as I wasn't quite as high on Milwaukee as some (coming into the season) while Miami made my list for Most Likely To Improve. However, said improvement for the Heat hadn't really taken hold until this month where they've now won six in a row, the latest two coming on the road against Toronto and Indiana. The Heat have certainly had ample time to prepare for this game as in three days off since those pair of outright victories (were +4 in both games). But this is a team that's still been outscored over the course of the season. You could say the same for Milwaukee, but they have the better efficiency numbers as well. Take the points.

The Bucks come into this game off a home loss to Golden State on Friday. In that game, they were able to overcome a 14-pt halftime deficit, even taking the lead after three quarters, yet still wound up losing by 14 anyway as they were outscored 28-12 in the fourth. There was no Steph Curry for the Dubs either. Yet, I hardly would call that a "bad" loss for the team and the good news here is that the Bucks have been alternating wins and losses for the first two weeks of 2018. By that measure, they're "due" for a win here. Don't look for them to shoot as poorly here as they did against the Warriors (42.4%) nor allow the same kind of shooting percentage they did against the defending champs (55.0%). This is a team that actually averages more points per game on the road than at home. 

Miami 'fans' are thinking about last year when the team went on an amazing 13-game run right around this time of the season. However, note that this six-game stretch has hardly been dominant; every win has come by single digits, two of them by a single point and another in overtime. What's also been key for the Heat is a 14-4 SU record against teams below .500. Prior to the previous two games, they'd been just 8-13 SU vs. winning teams. They've been surprisingly bad at home so far (11-9 SU, 5-13-2 ATS) and are clearly overachieving given they're just 6-11 ATS when favored. Milwaukee is the better team here and getting points. Miami is just 3-7 ATS this year off a SU win as a dog. 10* Milwaukee

10* Brooklyn (7:05 ET): Second night of a back to back for the Wizards and I don't trust them enough to cover against a lesser opponent following a SU win. Last night saw them down the atrocious Magic, 125-119, a game which featured little to no defense (both teams scored 30+ in each of the first three quarters!), but Washington failed to cover as 10.5-pt chalk. That makes it four ATS losses in a row for them. Brooklyn comes in on a bit of an ATS role having covered seven of its last eight games, including an outright win last night in Atlanta as 2.5-pt dogs. So often, we see a team playing on the road and w/o rest be undervalued. I believe that to be the case here. Take the points. 

Washington is now just 8-20 ATS as a favorite and 8-16 ATS vs. teams w/ losing records. They've allowed 100 pts in 13 consecutive games, so it would take a really impressive outburst offensively for them to cover a spread as large as this. They couldn't last night, despite shooting 56.8% from the field. Now they were only 4 of 16 from three-point range, but any gains made in that area tonight will be offset by the extreme likelihood of them not coming anywhere close to going 50 of 79 (63.1%!) from two-point range again. The 74 pts scored in the paint last night were a season-high. The Wizards were very lucky that Orlando missed 16 of its 22 field goal attempts in the 4th quarter, because before that they were at 60 percent for the game themselves! Washington is just plain bad defensively as they are allowing an average of 107.8 pts the L5 games.

Brooklyn is far more respectable this season than in year's past as they're "only" being outscored by an average of 2.8 points per game (-6.7 PPG last year). While they are by no means a good shooting team they should find success against a leaky Wizards defense for all the reasons listed above. Also, it's not like the Nets haven't found success against the Wiz this season. They're 2-0 SU/ATS in head to head matchups, including a 119-84 win last month where they led by as many as 40 points! Washington has been pretty dreadful in revenge spots this season. Most shocking of all is the level of defense the Nets have played against the Wiz this year, holding them to an average of 91 PPG on less than 40% shooting, including 9 of 42 from three-point range. 10* Brooklyn

8* Under Lakers/Mavs (2:05 ET): Two teams at the bottom of the Western Conference meet Saturday afternoon and at least they can say they'll be done in time to watch the first NFL playoff game. The Lakers, in the midst of the circus known as Lavar Ball, have all of a sudden won three straight after previously losing nine in a row. All three wins came at home, however. Dallas, meanwhile, has turned things around somewhat after a dreadful start to the season. They're actually a respectable 10-11 SU their L21 games including 6-3 their L9. But, as a favorite, they're tough to like as they've gone just 4-8 SU and ATS in that role this season. But I don't like the Lakers in this spot either, given their poor history vs. the Mavs (lost 14 straight to them!). What I do like here though is the total, which seems too high, especially from the Dallas perspective. Take the Under. 

There was a time when the Lakers ranked pretty high in defensive efficiency. HC Luke Walton was quite critical of his team on that end of the floor during the nine-game losing streak. But they still rank a very respectable 12th in defensive efficiency for the year after holding B2B opponents (one San Antonio!) below 90 pts. Those two opponents - the Spurs and Kings - both rank in the bottom five in the league in pace. Fortunately here for the Lakers, the Mavs are not far above that, ranking 6th slowest. Most impressive though is holding four straight opponents below 44% shooting from the floor. Meanwhile, the Lakers themselves actually rank 1st in the league in pace (most possessions per game), but at the same time they're horribly inefficient as they rank 28th on offense. Like their L2 opponents, they didn't break 100 pts in the L2 games either. 

As for Dallas, I had the Under in their most recent home game, a 114-99 win over Orlando (cashed!). They followed that up by going to Charlotte the next night and winning outright (as 6.5-pt dogs), 115-111 (that game obviously went Over). So, despite both being considered "also-rans," each team is on a winning streak here. Note that the Mavs are 30-13 Under the L3 seasons when coming off a SU win as a dog. They have also - shockingly - scored 114+ in six of their previous seven games. Needless to say, I don't think they do that here. 8* Under Lakers/Mavs

8* Oregon (2:00 ET): The Ducks came up big for me on Thursday, upsetting what was a highly overrated Arizona State team. Naturally, you'd call for a letdown here, but they're getting points against an Arizona team that has its own set of problems right now. Wildcats HC Sean Miller recently went on the record, saying he can't get his team "to play for him" and "can't reach" them. I don't think a solitary win over Oregon State (didn't cover) Thursday at home was the cure-all either. Now you may be wondering what Miller is taking about considering his team is 13-4 SU and ranked 17th in the country. But more was expected from this team, even if they still should be considered the "class" of the Pac 12. Take the points here. 

Back to back wins over ranked opponents, both on the road no less, would obviously be huge for Oregon. Remember the Ducks were a Final Four team last year. Now they did lose a ton from that team, but HC Dana Altman is 30-15 ATS the L3 seasons in Pac 12 play and 26-9 ATS off a conference win. The Ducks destroyed Arizona State on the interior Thursday, outscoring the Sun Devils 38-16 in the paint and 15 offensive rebounds led to 15 second chance points. They are the 1st road team to win in Tempe this season. Now can they turn the trick in Tucson? History says "yes" as they are 21-5 ATS their L26 games against teams averaging 77+ PPG (Arizona comes in averaging 82.5). Oregon averages 81.3 PPG themselves, so they can hang.

Arizona is only 5-10 ATS when favored this season. They're also just 2-8 ATS against teams that have winning records. So you can start to understand Miller's criticism. It came after a loss at Colorado last Saturday. They never led in that game and it simply wasn't as close as the 80-77 final suggests as the Wildcats shot just 30 percent in the 1st half and fell behind 45-29. The 62-53 win over Oregon State was also a tad bit misleading as they trailed at the half and did not start to pull away until the final six minutes of the game. It helped that they were facing a drastically inferior opponent that shot only 39.3% from the floor. But Arizona only scored 62 and like Oregon State, the Ducks employ a zone (which always seems to befuddle the Wildcats). Also, the Ducks won't be lacking in confidence here as they won their last visit to Tucson, which ended Arizona's 49-game home win streak. 8* Oregon 

10* Florida State (2:00 ET): This is a spot that I'm all too apt to jump on as the home favorite is off a SU loss (in that same role) its last time out. Florida State lost to Louisville on Wednesday, 73-69 as 6.5-pt chalk, but lucky for them Syracuse is not Louisville. This is a really crucial game for the 'Noles as they've dropped three of four (every loss by 7 pts or less), but note the one win during this stretch came over North Carolina (here in Tallahassee). The L'ville loss was their first at home all season. This is a team I still have ranked in my top 30 nationally. As for Syracuse, not only are they not Louisville, they're not even your usual Orange squad under Jim Boeheim. They've lost three straight ACC games following the usual Jim Boeheim cupcake-filled non-conference schedule (bereft of "true" road games). Lay the points 

For the record, it's not just me that thinks highly of the Seminoles. They come into this game ranked #23 in the country (loss occured after latest poll was released). The loss also snapped a 28-game home win streak. It's not like they came out of the gates slowly either. They had a 13-pt halftime lead and it was looking like they were well on their way to another home victory. But after connecting on 18 of 39 FG attempts in the 1st half, they went just 8 of 26 from the field in the 2H. It also didn't help that they committed six turnovers in the first six minutes after halftime. This is a squad that averages 83.6 PPG overall and 88.9 at home. So, they were held well under their scoring average. I don't expect that to be the case for a second straight game.

Like FSU, Syracuse's three ACC losses have all been by seven points or less. The win came against Virginia Tech. Despite a relatively strong defense (trademark zone!), the Orange can't seem to hit "water from a boat" themselves as they're off B2B sub-40% efforts from the field, averaging just 55 PPG. If you can't win a game, at home, where you hold the opposition to a 30.0 FG% (like the 'Cuse did vs. Notre Dame), then I don't know what to say. Even against said zone, I expect FSU to shoot better from three-point range than they have in their L2 games (27.1%). This is a brutal spot for the Orange, who simply lack offensive firepower, three days after playing on the road at Virginia. They got all of ZERO bench pts in that game. That won't cut it.  10* Florida State

10* Memphis (9:05 ET): I came into this season thinking it wouldn't be a particularly good one for the Grizzlies. However, I had no idea things could get this dire. They enter Friday w/ the second worst record in the Western Conference, only one-half game ahead of Sacramento. Injuries, particularly Mike Conley's Achilles, have been the primary culprit, but at least the team is showing signs of life lately. They've at least been competitive in going 5-1 ATS the L6 games and just beat New Orleans on Wednesday, 105-102, as a small home underdog. They're getting enough points here where I like them against a Denver team that is on a season-worst three-game losing skid w/ two of those defeats coming to Sacramento and Atlanta. Take the points. 

The Nuggets are thought to have one of the strongest home court advantages in the league. They are 14-5 SU here and averaging 110.9 points per game. But they lost, to Atlanta, last time out. They scored only 97 points (on 40.0% shooting) and what's key here is the Hawks are one of the few teams in the league w/ a worse record than the Grizzlies. Also, as mentioned above, the Nuggets also recently lost to the Kings, albeit that was on the road and they (Denver) were in a horrible scheduling spot. Still, if the Nuggets want to be a playoff team, they can't be losing to such opponents. They are only 9-12 ATS vs. teams w/ losing records this season.

Memphis is still w/o Conley and Chandler Parsons, but is in a good place due to the schedule. Playing in Denver in the second night of a back to back is terrible, but not only did the Grizz have last night off, they've played just one time in the previous six days! They were able to beat the Pelicans despite not even shooting the ball very well (42.0%) and lost to the Wizards by only two points despite shooting even worse (40.7%). Yes, both those games were at home, but the team has shot better than 52% in two of its previous three road games. This is a team that's only being outscored by 3.3 PPG on the season. While Denver just got beat by Sacramento, the Grizzlies hammered the Kings the week before (also in Sacramento), by 18 points. (They were in the second game of a back to back as well). I expect this to be a close game. 10* Memphis

8* Under Magic/Wizards (7:05 ET): Washington is reeling after B2B losses here at home (were favored in both games) to the Bucks and Jazz. However, that's nothing compared to the amount of losing the Magic are experiencing. Believe it or not, but Orlando was once 8-4 and being talked about as a potential playoff darkhorse. Since then, they have lost an unfathomable 26 out of 30 games. That includes a 130-103 loss to these Wizards back on December 23rd (were 12-pt dogs). The line is shorter here, but despite the earlier Wiz cover, I simply cannot back them in this spot given their poor 8-19 ATS record as chalk. I'm also not about to back the Magic right now. Thankfully, it's the total that merits a play.

While the pointspread has curiously declined here, the O/U line has increased fairly dramatically from that first meeting. I suppose that was to be expected seeing as the Wizards scored 130 pts and the game easily went Over. But this number is high - by both team's standards. Orlando has topped 103 pts only once in its previous six tries, three times failing to even crack triple digits. They are 25th in offensive efficiency for the year and playing at a fast pace really hasn't worked for them. Washington is nothing more than a middle of the road team offensively. Though they shot 52.6% from the floor against Utah Wednesday night, they missed 14 of their final 22 FG attempts, which explains how they lost that game despite the Jazz being (very) short-handed. 

In the last meeting between these two, both teams shot the ball pretty well, the Wizards (obviously) in particular. The Wiz finished at 54.7% from the floor including 16 of 30 from three-point range. Despite Orlando's continued ineptitude on the defensive end of the floor, I wouldn't expect Washington to match those numbers tonight. Nor are they likely to score 72 pts in the 1st half again (like they did in the 1st meeting). Though they are division rivals, these teams have met just twice in the past 12 months. The Wizards are 15-8 Under against teams w/ losing records while the Magic have gone 4-1 Under here in January. Overall, the Wizards are one of the top Under teams in the league (third), having gone 24-15-2 in all games. 8* Under Magic/Wizards

10* Nebraska (7:00 ET): The Big 10 weekend slate gets started a little early in Happy Valley as Penn State hosts Nebraska Friday night. In what is a VERY top-heavy league this year, these two squads are presumed for the "middle of the pack," but Nebraska comes into tonight actually tied for 4th at 3-2 SU (12-6 overall). Penn State has the same overall record, but is 2-3 SU in Big 10 play. Granted, the Nittany Lions' three losses have all come by margins of six points or fewer, but they've also yet to play either of the two heavyweights - Michigan State and Purdue. Those two are who handed Nebraska its two losses and both games were on the road. Last time out, the Cornhuskers upended Wisconsin (in Lincoln) 63-59 as 1.5-pt faves. 

The 'Huskers led by as many as 13 in the 2H vs. Wisconsin in what (as you can see by the line) was no upset. Now, free throws were a key in the win as Nebraska went 21 of 28 from the line while Wisconsin was just 4 of 10. They probably can't count on such an edge taking place here tonight, on the road. State College has also not been kind to them as they've won just one of their previous six visits here. But might this team be a little different as it has gone 3-2 SU against five NCAA Tourney teams from LY? This has been a strong spread team as well (11-5 ATS overall) and they play defense too. Their last three opponents have been held to 42.4%, 44.3% and 29.2% overall from the floor and all were Big 10 teams. Even better is that none of the three shot better than 29% from three-point range (key!).

While Nebraska was beating Wisconsin on Tuesday, Penn State lost to Indiana despite outshooting the Hoosiers, pretty drastically. The Nittany Lions finished 50% from the floor while IU was at just 40%. How then, do we explain that result? Well, the bench was outscored 25-1 and IU made 18 of its 22 free throws while Penn State made just 12 of its 18. Also, the Nittany Lions committed 14 turnovers to the Hoosiers' nine. But consider this: PSU's top two players - Carr and Stevens - combined for 48 pts and they still lost (on an overall good shooting night for the team). Nebraska managed to defeat Wisconsin despite shooting only 5 of 19 from three-point range. This spread is too high. Penn State, keep in mind, lost to Rider back on 12.22. 10* Nebraska

10* Oregon (10:00 ET): I think I speak for many when I say that I never took Arizona State seriously, not even as the Sun Devils could still claim to be one of the few remaining unbeatens in the country. They got as high as #2 in the polls, but this is barely a Top 25 team in my opinion. So, OK, they did win at Kansas in their lone "true" non-conference road game. They also upset Xavier here in Tempe. But a team that was projected to finish as low as sixth this year in the Pac 12 has predictably come back "down to Earth" now that conference play has commenced. ASU lost B2B games at Arizona and Colorado to bookend the New Year and followed that up w/ a close call in Salt Lake earlier this week (beat Utah by three). I'll take the points here as the (now) #11 team in the country is still due to tumble down the rankings a bit more. 

Oregon comes into this game well-rested. They're also angry as last Friday saw them fall to rival Oregon State, in Corvallis, 76-64 as 2.5-pt favorites. It was the second time in three Pac 12 games that the Ducks lost outright as favorites as they also lost at home to Utah in the opener (beat Colorado in between). This will be the 1st time in conference play that they are getting points. It's only the third time all season that the Ducks have been a dog. They're 8-3 ATS in that role the L3 seasons, not to mention they're also 6-1 ATS the L7x they have taken the court w/ five or six days rest. They've also been exceptional against high scoring teams such as ASU, going 20-5 ATS their L25 games vs. opponents that average 77+ PPG.

Now Arizona State has enjoyed its own success at the betting window this year, covering all but two lined games, one of those coming when they were 38-pt favorites. They're also 9-0 ATS this season after scoring 80+ pts the previous game and haven't lost at home. This is their first time hosting in Pac 12 play as the first three games were all on the road. That said, their recent shooting decline is a concern and I don't think a simple return to Tempe is a "cure-all." Oregon (a Final Four team LY, remember!) can both rebound (+6.0 rpg) and defend (opponents shooting below 40% for the year) and that can keep an underdog in any game. 10* Oregon

10* Sacramento (10:05 ET): The Kings are, in my opinion, the worst team in basketball. Sure, there are  teams w/ worse records (two to be precise) and they are tied w/ two others (Lakers, Grizzlies) for the worst record in the Western Conference. But no team in the league can "touch" their -8.7 PPG scoring differential. That being said, there are two factors pointing to me taking the points here. One is that they are at home. Whereas the Kings are being outscored by double digits on the road, they're "only" -5.7 PPG at home and a respectable 7-12 straight up. They even won outright over Denver here, last Saturday, 106-98 while taking 8.5 pts from the oddsmakers. That win is relevant to the discussion here because like the Nuggets there, Sacramento's opponent for tonight is coming in w/o rest. Take the points.

Not only are the Clippers coming into this game w/o rest, it also happens to be a massive letdown spot as last night saw them STUN Golden State, 125-106 as 12-pt underdogs. That game was in Oracle Arena too and the Clips were short-handed (no Blake Griffin)! They absolutely destroyed the Dubs on the glass, outrebounding them 61-37, but the real story was Lou Williams scoring a career-best (easily!) 50 points. Needless to say, Williams probably won't come close to that point total tonight nor will reserve Tyrone Wallace be scoring 22 pts here (That was his career-high last night as well!). Furthermore, the Clippers have been absolutely dreadful in the second of back to back games this season, going 0-6 straight up. This is not a good spot for them.

The Kings have won just one of their previous six games and just lost at the Lakers, by double digits, scoring only 86 points. Prior to that, they did play San Antonio tough here at home (lost by only 7) and then there was the win over Denver. They also beat Cleveland here at home right before the New Year. I know it seems a little scary taking the Kings in this price range, but when the Clippers visited earlier in the year, it was only a two-point game. Following last night's huge win, there is simply no way that the Clips will be able to have the same intensity and it really can't be overstated just how short-handed they are right now (as many as six players out!). 10* Sacramento

10* USC (10:00 ET): This is a classic set up w/ the favorite off a SU loss (as road favorites) taking on an underdog off a PAIR of outright wins as a dog. Things aren't going quite as planned for Andy Enfield's USC Trojans as they'll enter this game w/ only an 11-6 SU record. This is a team that was predicted to finish 2nd in the Pac 12, prior to the start of this campaign. But they've already lost twice in conference play, one of those coming at Stanford (77-76) their last time out. The Trojans were five-point favorites in that contest. They'll be favored again tonight as they host a Colorado team that has to be feeling pretty good about itself following upsets of Arizona State and Arizona. But both upsets took place in Boulder. Not here. Lay the points. 

USC's loss to Stanford was as brutal as it gets as the Cardinal's Deajon Davis hit a 50-foot desperation heave at the buzzer to win the game. The Trojans had led by 11 at the half and by as many as 15. Considering Stanford was coming off a double OT game three nights prior, blowing that kind of lead - even on the road - should not happen. Southern Cal is now just 5-6 SU its last 11 games, including a home loss (in OT) to Princeton. That said, this is still a good offensive team that averages 83.5 PPG at home. They have three losses by two points or less or in overtime. I anticipate them going on a bit of run here w/ a favorable stretch of games this month, making tonight a good "buy low" situation. Following a SU loss this year, the Trojans have gone 4-1 ATS w/ the avg MOV coming by double digits.

Meanwhile, now would be an opportune time to "sell high" on Colorado. As stated above, the Buffaloes just upset both Arizona schools and did it as nine (Arizona St) and 8.5 (Arizona) pt underdogs respectively. ASU was one of the final teams to suffer a loss nationally, but is way overrated. Arizona is also struggling right now, something their own HC will readily admit. A huge key here is venue as "true" road games have been unkind to CU. They are 0-4 SU/ATS in them, including double digit losses at both Oregon and Oregon State in Pac 12 play. So, it's been a very different Buffaloes team we've seen on the road compared to Boulder. This game is in L.A., so it's a no-brainer. 10* USC

10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): Last night saw OKC stop back home for the only time in a six-game stretch. They lost, 117-106, to Portland as eight-point favorites. It was their second consecutive SU loss in that price range as the game prior saw them suffer an embarrassing double-digit defeat in Phoenix. Meanwhile, Minnesota is off arguably its most impressive win of the Tom Thibodeau-era as they waxed Cleveland 127-99 here at home Monday night. So, the two Northwest Division foes head into tonight's game feeling quite different. I can see this being a potential 1st round (#4 vs. #5) playoff matchup and being that it's a national TV game, the Thunder aren't about to take it lightly, especially given what's happened to them the L2 games. I'm also banking on the T'wolves not being as sharp as they were last tine out. Take the points.

One thing the Thunder have going for them here is that they are a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog this season. Not only that, they won all four times straight up! Despite the respective records and recent form, I still believe OKC to be the better of the two teams here. Already, this will be the fourth meeting of the season between the pair and Minnesota has gone 3-0 ATS in the previous three. However, all three games were decided by four points or less and by nine points total! The Thunder did win the last one SU though, 111-107 as five-point chalk, for what was at the time their first win all season by eight points or less. (They've subsequently won eight such games!). The first two meetings (both won by Minnesota) were played very early in the season and one of them was decided on a buzzer-beater. This will be the final meeting of the regular season and I'm guessing OKC is going to want to make a statement.

Now the Thunder failed to make a statement last night, losing at home to a Portland team that was w/o its best player (Damian Lillard). They did not shoot nor defend well. Here's the thing though; OKC is a far better defensive team than Minnesota as the two teams rank 6th and 19th respectively in efficiency at that end of the floor. Now the T'wolves have led by 34 and 41 points in each of their last two games and could get PG Jeff Teague back. But what goes up, must come down, and in this case I'm riding w/ a Thunder team that rarely catches points like they are here. 10* Oklahoma City

8* Under Heat/Pacers (7:05 ET): Miami took advantage of a short-handed Toronto team last night, ending the Raptors' 12-game home win streak. Not only did Toronto enter that game w/o Kyle Lowry (bruised tailbone), but they also lost both Serge Ibaka to a second half ejection. Now the Heat's James Johnson was also tossed in the scuffle w/ Ibaka, but I'd say that loss had less effect than what Toronto was dealing with. It was a very low-scoring game, 90-89, as Miami's Wayne Ellington made a layup in the final second for the win. Indiana, on the other hand, comes in rested after defeating Milwaukee Monday night by a score of 109-96. The L3 times these teams have met here at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, the game has stayed Under. Make it four in a row after tonight! 

Prior to last night, the Heat had gone Over in four consecutive games, scoring and allowing 100+ pts every time. They've also now won five straight to climb up to fourth place in the Eastern Conference. Interestingly, on a total points per game basis, this is the lowest scoring team in the East at 202.5 PPG. They average 100.6 (fewest of any team in the East!), but allow only 101.9 (tied for 2nd best). Not surprising then is they're 22-15-1 Under in all games this season. This total, while not high by modern NBA standards, is high for the Heat and you should note that they are 10-3 Under this year when facing a team that averages at least 106 points per game (31-14 Under L45 in that role). 

Pacers' games are higher scoring than Heat games w/ the former's offensive vs. defensive splits being more dramatic. However, Indiana has also held B2B opponents below 100 pts, including Milwaukee to just 96 Monday night. They were even more stout in an ideal spot Saturday, holding Chicago to 86 pts on 37.5% shooting. The Under is 14-7-1 in all Pacers' home games this season and the team is also 11-4 Under when favored, regardless of venue. Myles Turner is likely to miss this game and I can't see Sabonis continuing to average 21 PPG like he has over the last three games. Miami has not fared well here in Indianapolis the last several seasons, losing 10 straight visits here! They are still w/o Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow, by the way. These teams have met twice previously this season w/ both games in Miami and both going Over. But Indiana won't be shooting anywhere close to 60% from the field here like they did in the last meeting. 8* Under Heat/Pacers

10* Under Magic/Mavs (8:35 ET): We just turned the calendar to 2018, but suffice to say neither of these teams will be sniffing the playoffs come April. Orlando actually came into this season w/ playoff aspirations, but after a decent start (8-4 SU through 12 games), the bottom has dropped out here as the team is an absolutely horrific 4-24 its last 28 games. They have just one win since December 6th and I don't know how much longer HC Frank Vogel can keep his job if things keep going this way. Meanwhile, Dallas started its season poorly, but has been far more competitive of late. Though 0-3 SU in the New Year, they'd gone a respectable 8-8 SU their 16 games prior. That said, I don't want to back the Mavs as favorites here. What I will do, however, is call for an Under as Dallas plays at a slow pace and Orlando is quite inefficient.

While they average 105.1 PPG, the Magic are just 27th in the league in offensive efficiency. In what will likely prove to be a low possession game, that means trouble for them. Last time out, the Magic scored 127 points, but it was still not enough against Cleveland (though they did cover as 9-pt home dogs). Dallas is obviously a much different opponent than Cleveland. Something else to consider is that Orlando is 8-1 Under following a game where they allowed 130+ pts (that trend goes back several seasons). Both they and the Cavs shot exactly 50% from the floor on Saturday, something I dare say WON'T be repeated by either team here. Cleveland is a top three efficiency team on offense, but 29th on defense. Dallas is worse offensively (16th), but also better defensively (22nd).

This is actually the third consecutive game where the Mavs are favored. They lost the previous two, to Chicago and New York, outright. They shot only 38% from the floor in Sunday's 100-96 loss to the Knicks. While they could very well improve upon that number tonight, note that the Mavs rank just 23rd in the league in scoring overall (102.0 PPG) and their home games average just 205.8 points per game - total. I expect an ugly game here. 10* Under Magic/Mavs

8* Georgetown (6:30 ET): There seems to be a bit of a desire (from the general public) to play AGAINST Pat Ewing's Hoyas these days. That probably has a lot to do w/ all we've heard about just how weak the Hoyas' non-conference schedule was. Ironically, G'town wasn't a good bet in the non-conference as they often faced lofty spreads and weren't covering them. But now that Big East play has started and they're a dog every time, we've seen more ATS success. Yes, they were severely routed by Creighton over the weekend, 90-66, as six-point home dogs. But prior to that, they'd gone 2-0-1 ATS in conference games, upsetting DePaul and losing to Butler (2 OT) by just two points (pushed as nine-point dogs at Marquette). Here, Ewing is fortunate to be facing St. John's at a time when the Red Storm have lost four in a row and will be w/o second leading scorer Marcus LoVett. Take the points.

The build up for this game will center around the two coaches, Ewing and Chris Mullin, each of whom led their respective alma maters to greatness over 30 years ago. That makes sense, but also masks the fact both teams are struggling right now. St. John's, like G'town, is off an ugly loss as they were beaten at home (as seven-point favorites), 91-74 by DePaul. The Red Storm have played two Big East home games thus far and lost them by a combined 39 points. They're off to an 0-4 start in conference play and that is largely owed to some terrible defensive efforts. They're giving up 84.5 PPG on 49.8% shooting in league play. There seemed to be a real lack of effort at defending the three-point line vs. DePaul.

G'town is 3-0 ATS the L3 times it has been a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and 17-7 ATS its last 24. St. John's clearly misses LoVett (knee) and as a result one player (Shamorie Ponds) has had to carry the scoring burden. Ponds has really struggled to shoot the ball of late, including a 7 of 24 effort in the loss to DePaul. Again, the Red Storm just lost - at home - by 17 points to DePaul. That is not good. Georgetown has a sizable (pun intended!) edge in the frontcourt and I anticipate them exploiting that. The Hoyas might never have been as good as their record this season, but they are worth taking plus the points here in what could be an outright upset. 8* Georgetown

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): In the past, I've been quite criticial of Cleveland and their inability to defend well. They come into this game ranked a rather unsightly 27th in defensive efficiency after allowing 127 pts in a win (!) over Orlando Saturday night. As a result, the Cavs have been HUGE money-burners in the favorite role this season, now 6-24 against the spread. So, what's w/ the endorsement here? Well, Minnesota happens to be a good matchup for LeBron and company as the Timberwolves are in the same boat in terms of offensive vs. defensive splits. While ranking 5th in offensive efficiency (Cavs are 3rd), the T'wolves are 20th on the defensive end. They have also struggled against the East this year, going just 2-11 ATS (4-10 SU). 

Fortunately for Cleveland, they were able to turn in one of their highest scoring efforts of the year Saturday in Orlando, finishing the game w/ a 131 pts on relatively mediocre shooting. They built a lead as large as 20 pts going into the 4Q, which is when the poor defense made things closer than they ought to have been. (Magic scored 40 pts in the 4Q). Still, as you can tell, there is nothing wrong w/ the Cavs offensively right now as they come into tonight averaging 110.5 PPG. Unlike most of their games, there's no real worries about a pointspread here as a SU win basically equates to a cover. Remember that Isaiah Thomas is now in the Cavs lineup as well. It's a small sample size, but the two games where Thomas has played have seen the team average 129 pts! 

Minnesota has been unusually stout at the defensive end lately, holding each of its previous five foes below 100 pts (94.6). But they've played some weak teams during that stretch, such as Brooklyn and the Lakers. For the season, the T'wolves are allowing 47.8% shooting at home, including 37.8% from three-point range. Cleveland is one of the better three-point shooting teams in the league right now and I expect them to score plenty tonight. How much they give up is another matter, but the number won't be as many as they score. Having dropped five of eight, the Cavs have fallen five games back of Boston for the top spot in the East, so it's imperative they finish this road trip strong. 10* Cleveland

8* LA Lakers (9:35 ET): Two bottom feeders meet late Sunday night, so I don't anticipate a huge handle on this game. That said, I do think it's worth a shot taking the Lakers (even as a favorite!), who are desperate right now to snap a nine-game losing skid that started before X-Mas. Even worse is the fact that six of those losses took place here at Staples Center. But absences have played a role and while the idiotic LaVar Ball remains an annoyance, I feel tonight is a case of "if not now, when?" for the team. Atlanta comes in as the only team w/ a worse record than the Lakers and will be playing its third consecutive road game here. Lay the short number. 

While six of the Lakers last seven losses have come by double digits, the Hawks have been a surprisingly "tough out" as they've covered 12 of the last 18 games (including one push). But they too were routed their last time out, 110-89 by Portland as they trailed by as many as 25 pts in the fourth quarter. The Hawks have actually been favored in five games this year, winning and covering four of them. But otherwise, they rarely win as their SU record as a dog is 6-27. They lose those games by an average of 6.2 points per game, but w/ the pointspread usually generous, they can at least reward those taking them ATS. But here, the number is short and you don't see that often w/ this team, at least on the road. They are just 3-17 SU on the road this season, the worst such record in the league.

The Lakers defense has ranged from horrific to non-existent of late and that has to stop. There was a time earlier in the year when they actually ranked in the top ten in defensive efficiency (currently 15th). HC Luke Walton seems cognizant of that. "Early in the year, if we had off-shooting nights, like we've had a lot of, we were still right in ball games, because we were defending our tails off," he said. The Lakers need to win here to avoid matching the franchise's longest losing streak in history (set in the dreadful period when Magic Johnson was coaching the team in '94). Fortunately here, Atlanta happens to rank 27th in defensive efficiency. The Lakers beat the Hawks both times last season and can do it again tonight. 8* LA Lakers

10* Iowa (8:00 ET): Maryland is a team that would find itself squarely on the bubble if this were March as most "Bracketology experts" have them right on the cutline as one of the final four teams in the field of 68. However, the Terps certainly did NOT look like a NCAA Tournament team earlier in the week when they were thrashed (by 30!) at top ranked Michigan State. Iowa isn't even thinking Tourney right now after it dropped B2B home games to Ohio State and Michigan. Just when it appeared as if the Hawkeyes had things turned around (five straight wins to end 2017), they drop a pair in Iowa City to start the new year. They have yet to win a single Big 10 game (0-4 SU!), so expect a desperate dog tonight in College Station. Take the points.

Maryland is 2-2 vs. the Big 10 and 13-4 SU overall. The two losses did come to Purdue and Michigan State, not only the two best teams in the league, but two of the best teams in the country. However, the two wins are by a combined seven points, one of them (at Illinoi) by only one. That's significant b/c Illinois is the only other Big Ten team besides Iowa w/o a win in league play. Every Terrapins' Big 10 tilt, besides the last one, was close. Thursday in East Lansing, however, they were completely decimated in a 91-61 defeat. They had no answer for the Spartans' depth or shooting (57.7% overall), which included a season-high 16 three-point FGs made. Will tonight's game be a significant drop in class for Maryland? Certainly. But might the Terps also still be "licking their wounds?" Probably. 

Iowa has its issues defensively as they've given up at least 73 points in four consecutive games and 92 the last time out, vs. Ohio State. This is a young and not particularly deep team (though they do play 11), but still, falling behind by as many as 17 pts (in the first half) in your own gym is pretty unacceptable. It was the second straight game where the Hawkeyes got off to a bad start. They also allowed the Buckeyes to shoot 53.0% from the field. But this looks to be a generous spread as the Hawkeyes haven't really been a dog of this magnitude, save for once, this season. Maryland has been good at home so far, but they've yet to blow a Big 10 opponent out. 10* Iowa

8* Boston (6:05 ET): The Celtics withstood a tough challenge from the T'wolves Friday night, holding them to 84 points in a seven-point win and cover. Playing on the road and w/o rest here may not be an ideal combo, but consider that the opponent is lowly Brooklyn. While the Nets too beat Minnesota in their last game (Wednesday), which was their second straight win and fourth consecutive cover, the Celtics are not a good matchup for them. I say that knowing full well that the Nets covered in Beantown back on December 30th, as 9.5-pt dogs, in a 108-105 loss. But that was an atypical game for the Celtics as they allowed 59 pts in the 1st half and then also went scoreless from the field over the final 4:27. Lay a shorter number here.

That last meeting also marked the seventh straight time Boston beat Brooklyn. They did so despite some of the factors listed above, plus they were only 16 of 25 from the free throw line. It was - easily - the Celtics' worst defensive showing in the last five games and also only one of four times in the L11 games that they surrendered more than 100 pts. They come into tonight ranked #1 in defensive efficiency and PPG allowed (97.9) after holding B2B opponents below 90 pts. Both of those opponents - Cleveland and Minnesota - came in ranked in the top five in OFFENSIVE efficiency, mind you! Brooklyn is tied for only 18th in that department as they may average 106.9 PPG for the season, but do so thanks to a high number of possessions per game. If and when Boston limits the number of possessions and turns this into a halfcourt game, it will be a frustrating affair for the Nets. That's the big edge the Celtics have here.

Brooklyn's B2B wins have been by a total of three points. Both were at home, against Orlando and Minnesota. Before that, they'd lost 8 of 10. They have won three in a row at home, but have not won three in a row overall (what they're gunning for here) at any point this season. In fact, it's just the third time they've won consecutive times. The last time (early December) saw them lose their next game by double digits, here at home. Furthermore, only one time all of last season (towards the end of the year) did the Nets win three straight times. Boston has won five straight and is holding opponents to 93.2 PPG on 37.5% shooting. One final point to make here centers around three-point shooting. Boston beat Minnesota last night despite shooting a season-worst 6 for 36 from behind the arc. They'll obviously improve upon that number here. Meanwhile, Brooklyn needed to hold Minnesota to 1 of 11 from three-point range to prevail by one point on Wednesday. Their three-point defense is bound to regress. 8* Boston

8* North Carolina (1:00 ET): In all due respect to the Big XII matchup between WVU and Oklahoma later in the day, the standout game on Saturday's slate takes place in the ACC. Both Virginia and North Carolina are probably better than their current rankings, #8 and #12 respectively, and today we'll find out who is better overall (albeit not necessarily permanently). This is a rivalry dominated by the home team recently w/ four straight wins and seven of the last nine. But North Carolina is likely the more motivated side here after losing at Florida State Wednesday (by a single point!) and thus, they'll be the proverbial "tough out" plus the points. I'm taking the underdog here.

Now, I must concede that Virginia is a very good basketball team. How good? Well, at the defensive end, they are allowing just 52.7 points per game. That's the fewest in the country right now and perhaps more impressive is the fact the Hoos have held every opponent thus far to either its lowest or second lowest point total of the season! They allow 6.2 PPG fewer than the #2 team defensively (Miami). They also don't turn the ball over much, doing so just 9x per game, fewest in the country. But Saturday afternoon will certainly be their toughest test to date as UNC comes in averaging an impressive 84.9 points per game. Off their previous two losses, the Tar Heels have won by double digits the next time out, each time scoring 86 pts. 

It's rare that UNC loses B2B games. It didn't happen at all last season en route to them cutting down the nets in April. This team may not be as good as that one, but remember they don't even need to necessarily win straight up here. Prior to routing Va Tech in Blacksburg earlier in the week (1st win there in four years), Virginia was lucky to win its ACC opener (here in Charlottesville) as they escaped w/ a one-point win over Boston College. Getting back to North Carolina, they are 35-17-2 ATS their L54 games following a SU loss. That's good enough for me as you have to figure they've been favored in almost all of those contests. There's some real nice value here taking them plus the points. 8* North Carolina

8* Memphis (9:35 ET): This is a rare TV showcase (ESPN) for the Grizzlies, so I expect them to be up for it. They host a Washington team who is well-known to either play up - or down - to its level of opponent. Case in point, the Wizards have won three in a row, one of those games against Houston. (All three were also at home.) But they've also suffered recent losses - by double digits - to Atlanta and Brooklyn. Those were two of their last three road games. The Wiz have a losing road record this year (9-10 SU) while being outscored as well. I like that this number has been bet up in the A.M. and I'll take advantage by grabbing the points.

For Memphis, this is their 1st home game since before Christmas! They just wrapped up a five-game West Coast trip w/ a 113-105 loss at the Clippers. They at least managed to beat both the Lakers and Kings on the trip and only lost to Phoenix by two. When they met Washington earlier in the season (in D.C.), they lost by just six and that was as 7.5-pt favorites. Not sure why the line would be so high for the rematch. Memphs is also averaging an impressive 111.3 points over its L6 games.

Washington will have John Wall in the lineup tonight (and tomorrow). Usually, HC Scott Brooks has been resting Wall in the front end of a back to back. But with the team being so inconsistent, he's "changing it up" a bit. I reckon that Wall's presence is what has influenced this line so much. The Wizards are only 11-10 SU against teams w/ losing records and 8-13 ATS in those same games. Those losses I mentioned earlier - to Brooklyn and Atlanta - were by a combined 49 points! 8* Memphis

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): Winners of five in a row ATS (4-1 straight up), the Mavs face an ideal opponent tonight in the Bulls. Dallas has seen its offensive efficiency rise pretty dramatically over the last month or so while Chicago still languishes (ranked 29th) in that department. I still feel that the Bulls are being overvalued due to that somewhat shocking seven-game win streak in December. They're 12-3 ATS the L15 games, but let's not forget just how poorly they played over the first two months of the season. Sure enough, they've begun to regress again w/ three consecutive losses, the latest coming at home to Toronto (Wednesday) by a score of 124-115. They're just 4-15 SU on the road, getting outscored by almost 10 PPG and have gone just 1-13 SU, 2-9-3 ATS against the Western Conference. Lay the points here. 

Dallas also had a very rough start to the season, but despite their 13-26 SU overall record, they're still only being outscored by 2.4 points per game. That's a far better YTD point differential than Chicago, who is -5.6 points per game. In fact, only two teams in the league can lay claim to having a worse point differential than the Bulls, those being Phoenix and Sacramento. Per 100 possessions, the Bulls are being outscored by 6.5 points, tied for second worst in the league. Dallas isn't favored too often (this will be just the 10th time this season), but it's a good spot as they have outscored their opponents at home, largely due to the fact they hold opponents to 43.9% shooting here. Also, they are a perfect 3-0 ATS after scoring 115+ pts the last game.

Alas, 122 pts was not enough for the Mavs on Wednesday as they went up against Golden State, but only lost by three. They covered as 8.5-pt dogs. Prior to the loss, they'd won four in a row. Certainly, losing to the Warriors is no crime, especially if its by only three points. Steph Curry made a three-pointer in the closing seconds to decide the game. As for the Bulls, while their offense still languishes, the defense has now surrendered 114 or more points in three straight games. Again, those have all been losses. I liked how Dallas had seven players score in double figures (2nd time in 3 games!) against the Dubs and that they shot 19 of 43 from three-point range. 10* Dallas

10* Northeastern (7:00 ET): Off an outright loss as a home favorite earlier in the week, I expect the Huskies to be highly motivated for this Friday night home date. On Tuesday, they lost to Hofstra, 71-70 as 5.5-pt chalk. That snapped a five-game home winning streak and was an extremely disappointing result given that N'eastern led early on by double digits. In the second half, no more than three points separated the two teams over the final 10 minutes. In a contest determined by the slightest margin possible, the keys were Hofstra shooting 49 to 45.5 percent from the floor, outscoring N'eastern 36-24 in the paint and four more free throws made. Tonight they face an Elon team in the exact opposite situation, that being off a SU win as a (slight) dog at home. I'll lay the points. 

Elon got me their last time out, beating Towson 75-72 as a 1.5-pt dog. Again, that game mirrored Northeastern's last game, only w/ the opposite result for the team in question. The Phoenix trailed virtually the entire first half and was still down six w/ just over seven minutes to go in the game. Like the N'eastern-Hofstra game, Elon and Towson were never separated by more than five pts after that. The Phoenix did not take the lead for good until the final minutes. They've now won three in a row and started 2-0 in CAA play, but both conference games were at home. Speaking of close games, these teams played a pair last season, each winning by 2 pts or less on the other's home floor. They were very different games. Elon won at N'eastern 51-49 and then the rematch went the Huskies way, 105-104, after two overtimes. 

Speaking of overtimes, Elon has been a very lucky team so far this season, winning three different OT games including one double OT game and one triple OT game! Four of their five losses have been by nine points or greater, three of those coming by 16 pts or more. All five losses were also on the road. As for Northeastern, I simply can't see them dropping B2B home games. The Huskies are allowing just 63 PPG at home this year while limited teams to 26% shooting from behind the arc. I'm banking on their defense showing up in a major way here and avenging what happened earlier in the week. Elon is just 1-5 ATS away from home this year. 10* Northeastern

10* Over Thunder/Clippers (10:35 ET): Neither of these teams got off to the start they were hoping for this season, but as we've seen recently - from both - they have the talent to turn things around in a hurry. It took OKC less time as they've climbed to fifth in the Western Conference after initially struggling to integrate their "Big 3" of Westbrook, George and Anthony. Poor play in "clutch" situations late in games, particularly on the defensive end, also hurt. But they are a solid fourth in efficiency. The Clippers have had to overcome losing Chris Paul to the Rockets and Blake Griffin to injury, but Griffin is back and they've now won four straight. I expect a good, high-scoring game here. Take the Over.

This is the second game of a back to back for the Thunder, both TV games. Anyone who watched on ESPN last night saw a team that had no issues scoring as they dropped 133 pts on what appeared to be a disinterested Lakers team. Now, I don't think for a second they'll score that many tonight. But that won't be neccessary either. Three of the Thunder's previous four games have gone Over by double digits. They've shot the ball quite well recently, 52.4% to be exact the L5 games, and averaged 115.4 PPG. Westbrook, Anthony and George all scored 20+ points last night. This isn't a normal back to back as they're playing in the same venue two nights in a row. More than two months into the season, I like the way the three of them have started to play together. 

The Clippers have won six of seven, scoring 106 or more in every game. Four of the last five games have gone Over w/ them averaging 114.8 PPG (shooting 50.9%) and they average 109.0 PPG at home for the season. They have a better bench than in recent years, primarily all due to Lou Williams, who has as many 30+ pt games off the bench this season as all other reserves in the league. Griffin has scored 21+ pts in all three games since his return from injury. When these teams played back in November, it was a 120-111 final (in favor of OKC). Another key is the Clips give up 105.7 PPG. 10* Over Thunder/Clippers

10* Wichita State (7:00 ET): This season has seen Wichita State make the "move up" from the Missouri Valley, a conference which they dominated seemingly for forever, to the American. The expectation is that it will the Shockers competing w/ Cincinnati for supremacy here. Sure enough, those are the only two AAC teams ranked, currently. Wichita State won its first league game on Saturday, 72-62 over UConn, but failed to cover (barely) as 10.5-pt favorites. It was the fourth consecutive game where they did not cover. For tonight, the number is more manageable (1st time not favored by DD since SU loss to Oklahoma), but the task more difficult as they host 12-2 Houston. The Cougars are off to a 2-0 SU start in AAC play. 

Houston's two losses this year are by a combined seven points, but to Drexel and LSU, games in which they were favored. They've only been an underdog once and that game happens to be their best performance of the season, a stunning 91-65 beatdown of Arkansas. But that was at home. The Cougars were a busy team prior to the New Year, playing twice in three days and beating USF and Temple. However, those two wins did not come w/o some attrition as starting forward Breaon Brady (scored 21 pts vs. Temple) sustained an ankle injury. He may not play tonight. Going into Charles Koch Arena, one definitely wants to be at full strength. That's because Wichita State is 65-1 straight up here the last five seasons!

Wichita State will certainly be Houston's toughest opponent to date. While the Shockers didn't play particularly well last month against Oklahoma, the Sooners are also a tougher opponent against Houston. WSU's only other loss this year was to Notre Dame (who was ranked #13 at the time) in Maui and they blew a double-digit halftime lead in that one. The key to the Shockers' success has been rebound margin as they rank #4 in the country in that department at +11.6 per game. This being their 1st AAC home game, I expect a very motivated effort from WSU.  Lay the points. 10* Wichita State

8* Under UTSA/La Tech (7:30 ET): Here's a somewhat "off the radar" matchup as we travel to Conference USA where both UTSA and Louisiana Tech are looking to bounce back from losses. The latter was expected to challenge Middle Tennessee for conference supremacy this season, but has opened C-USA w/ B2B losses, albeit both taking place on the road. But it can't all be blamed on the schedule here as the Bulldogs have had lineup issues and turn the ball over too much. Jalen Harris, the team's second leading scorer, asked for and was granted a release from the program after only 11 games. Leading scorer Dequan Bracey has battled back issues, which have limited him over the L2 games, and he's also the primary culprit for all the turnovers. 

UTSA won its C-USA opener (over Rice), but then lost to North Texas by a single point on Saturday. Unlike La Tech, the Roadrunners got to play both of their first two league games at home. Not much is expected from UTSA this season as they were picked to finish in the middle of C-USA and they're simply not very good away from home. Their lone "true" road win this year came by a single point at Texas State in the second game of the season. The loss to North Texas was the Roadrunners' fourth game this season decided by four points or less and they've lost three of those. They blew a seven-point halftime lead to North Texas and missed two layups in the closing seconds. This is not a team noted for its defense as they've allowed 100 pts TWICE in regulaton this season. 

Like UTSA, La Tech can score. They average 79.7 PPG and 90.0 PPG at home. UTSA averages 85.5 PPG (still not in the top 20), but also allows 77 PPG. These teams have a history of going Over against one another w/ seven of the previous eight meetings going that way, including all four the last two seasons. But notable here is the fact the O/U line some 20 pts higher than it was for either meeting last year. Both 2017 matchups BARELY went Over as in by 2 pts and 1 pt. Five of La Tech's last six games have stayed Under and while, again, both were on the road, they are averaging just 66.5 in conference games. UTSA is also coming off its lowest scoring effort to date. 8* Under UTSA/La Tech

8* New Orleans (9:05 ET): I expect both of these teams to be in the battle for the last couple (few?) playoff spots in the Western Conference, all season long. The five teams I consider "locks" in the West to make the playoffs are: Golden State, Houston, San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Minnesota. That leaves three spots, likely to be filled by some combo of the Pelicans, Jazz, Blazers, Clippers and Nuggets (so two teams will be left out). Given the way Utah played in December, the playoffs might seem like a remote possibility. Though they did end 2017 w/ an upset of the Cavs (here at home), the Jazz have gone just 3-10 SU since December 5th to fall to 16-21 SU overall. New Orleans, despite B2B losses, sits ahead of them (currently in that coveted 8th place position). 

Both teams are well-rested coming into tonight as they've each been off for three days. The Pelicans failed to take advantage of what looked like, on paper, to be a favorable homestand to close out 2017 (favored in all three games). They lost the last two, to Dallas and New York, "thanks" to a combo of poor defense and collapsing down the stretch. It was the defense that cost them against the Mavs, a poor offensive team that the Pelicans let make 22 three-pointers and score a season-high 122 pts. Then against the Knicks, NO blew an eight-point lead w/ under three minutes to go. So they should be highly motivated, not to mention this is a revenge spot as they lost here in Salt Lake City back on 12.1 (114-108). Interestingly though, they were 3.5-pt road favorites that night. 

Utah doesn't have Rudy Gobert, which is problematic to begin with, but especially when facing a team that has Anthony Davis and Boogie Cousins on its roster. I'm not sure how the Jazz plan on stopping them. Sure, they can slow the pace down, but that will be tough against a Pelicans team that plays at the sixth fastest pace in the league. I concede the fact Utah allows only 95.5 PPG at home, but since their problems started back on 12.5, they've held only two opponents below 100 pts. The December schedule was pretty brutal for the Jazz, so I can't say I was shocked to see them struggle. But while the pointspread is somewhat negligible here, it's only the 2nd time they've been favored in the L10 games. Only twice in the L18 games have they been favored by more than two points! 8* New Orleans

8* Oklahoma State (9:00 ET): Bedlam is renewed on the basketball court tonight w/ Oklahoma hosting rival Oklahoma State in the second Big 12 game for each side. The faithful in Norman may still be "licking their wounds" after the football team's disappointing loss in the Rose Bowl Monday, but they've got a pretty good basketball team too. The Sooners come in at 11-1 SU and ranked #7 in the country. In the (very deep) Big XII, they are the second highest rated team right now according to the pollsters (ahead of Kansas!). But it wasn't easy New Year's Eve, handing TCU its first loss of the season, and OK State will come in highly motivated off a loss at home to WVU. Take the points w/ the Pokes in this one.

The Big 12 looks to be loaded this year w/ five teams currently ranked in the top 18 and three in the top 10. Personally, I have OU rated as the fourth best team in the league (ahead of TCU among those ranked). I don't think they're the 7th best team in the country, by any means. Oklahoma State is in the next tier (along w/ Texas, Baylor and Kansas State) in what is potentially shaping up to be a seven-bid league in the NCAA Tournament. Certainly, they don't want to (can't afford to?) start 0-2 in conf play. They led WVU by seven at halftime in Stillwater on Friday, but shockingly the nation's #2 free throw shooting team (80.5%!) faltered down the stretch (11 for 19 in 2H). While the Cowboys were picked to finish last in the preseason poll, clearly, they're better than that as their only three losses so far have come to Top 10 teams (WVU, A&M, Wichita State). 

Winners of nine in a row, the Sooners are clearly going to be motivated here by the double revenge they have from last year (lost to OK State both times). But three of the past four meetings between these two (including both LY) have been decided by four points or less. In other words, expect a close game tonight. OU just outlasted TCU on New Year's Eve, coming from behind to win 90-89. At one point, the Sooners trailed by as many as 13 in the second half. Having had two more days to prepare here is a big edge for the underdog. Oklahoma certainly can score, but they give up plenty of points too (79.9 PPG). Maybe that's why they're just 3-6 ATS laying points this season. 8* Oklahoma State

10* Over Rockets/Magic (7:05 ET): This would appear to be a complete mismatch on paper as well as a "get well" spot for the Rockets, who have failed to cover six straight times. But they did snap a season-high five-game (SU) losing streak on New Year's Eve, beating the Lakers 148-142 in double overtime. Now, the "elephant in the room" here is that James Harden is out (indefinitely) due to a hamstring injury. It will be interesting to see how Houston performs w/o him. My guess is they'll be fine against bottom-feeders like the Magic. Now, this game isn't likely to be as high-scoring as the Rockets' last one, but it doesn't have to be, plus take note that even w/o OT, that last game was tied 122-122 at the end of regulation. Take the Over here.

Prior to the final 10 days of 2017, Houston had clearly emerged as the top challenger to Golden State's throne. Consider that their five consecutive losses were more than they experienced in their first 29 games! Led by Harden, they are ahead of Golden State in offensive efficiency this season and #1 overall. But, unlike last year (when they would have fallen completely off w/o Harden), now they have Chris Paul to lean on. An Orlando team that is just dreadful defensively (allows 110.0 PPG) should be all too welcoming for the undermanned Rockets here. Both Magic home games that have had a total of 220+ this season went Over. 

Houston's defense has been much improved this season and Harden certainly isn't going to be as missed on that end of the floor. That being said, I still anticipate Orlando scoring plenty tonight. During the course of their six-game ATS losing streak, the Rockets have allowed 112 or more points five times. They've allowed 121+ in regulation FOUR times. So, we've already begun to see some "slippage" defensively here. A key though is I expect Houston to shoot better tonight than they have recently (43.3% L5 games). Harden went down in the 4Q vs. the Lakers and after he left Paul scored 15 of his 28 pts. Orlando has been just terrible of late (4-26 SU L30 games!), but they too will shoot better tonight than they did in the last game. They were just 36.5% overall from the field in a 98-95 loss to Brooklyn on Monday, including 6 of 31 from three-point range. 10* Over Rockets/Magic

10* Charlotte (10:05 ET): Tonight marks a sort of "crossroads" for me as it pertains to the Hornets. In the interest of full disclosure, I tabbed this team as one of my most improved for 2017-18, presupposing they'd experience a lot better luck - whether you're talking injuries or record in close games. Instead, they've gotten neither. They currently sit 10 games below .500, have been w/o Nic Batun (since returned) and Cody Zeller (out indefinitely) for significant time, and seen their record in games decided by three points or less dip to an almost unfathomable 0-13 (straight up) since the start of last season! Even their head coach Steve Clifford has not been immune as he has been M.I.A. for three weeks due to an undisclosed health issue. 

But I'm willing to take a stab (one last one?) tonight as they visit the team I rate as the worst in the entire league, that being Sacramento. Sure, there is a handful of teams w/ worse records than the Kings. But in my estimation, no team has played worse. They have - by a fairly wide margin - the worst per game point differential in the league at -8.7. Mirroring that, they are giving up 10.3 more points per 100 possessions than they are scoring. The next worst team is only -6.4 in that department. That discrepancy is largely owed to a league worst defense that is giving up 1.1 points per possession. Offensively, the Kings are also dead last in efficiency and they average only 97.0 points per game. They won't have either their starting (rookie De'Aaron Fox) or even backup (Frank Mason) point guard for tonight's game as both are out w/ injuries. Yikes! 

The last two games have seen Sacramento get outscored by 28 pts. That may not mean surprise you, but consider the opponents were Memphis and Phoenix. So there is hope for a team like Charlotte here. Against the Grizzlies, the Kings trailed by as many as 30 in the second half and that that was here at home! Whereas the Kings are simply a bad team, the Hornets are a decent one, hurt by poor luck. I know that they're only 3-13 SU on the road this season, so it seems odd to lay points, but the line actually isn't high enough. Expect Kemba Walker to shoot better than he has recently, in this game. 10* Charlotte

8* Phoenix (9:05 ET): Two bottom-feeders face off Tuesday in the desert w/ the Suns hosting the Hawks. Both teams entered 2017-18 "knowing their lot" and that it would be a long season. Neither has "disappointed" in that regard. Phoenix is 14-24 SU and really could be a lot lower in the Western Conference standings as three of the four teams w/ worse records have better YTD point differentials. The Hawks are at the bottom of the Eastern Conference (10-26 SU), yet off a rare SU win. That latter component makes them strong fade material in my book as bad teams rarely post B2B wins, especially on the road. The Suns are 28-12 ATS the L40 H2H meetings, including a perfect 4-0 ATS the L2 seasons. Lay the short number. 

For Atlanta, this game marks the start of a five-game trip out West. They beat Portland at home Saturday, 104-89 as 2-pt home dogs. In addition to much better than usual defense, the Hawks used a second-half scoring "explosion" to down the Blazers. They scored 32 points in the 4Q alone and the difference in the last 12 minutes was almost the difference in the game. They also benefited from shooting 14 of 30 from three-point range while Portland was only 7 of 25. The Hawks are middle of the road offensively, but it's the other end where they often struggle. They'll come into this game ranked 27th in defensive efficiency. (Phoenix is one of three teams rated lower). The 89 pts allowed to Portland were the fewest by any Hawks opponent since Sacramento scored only 80 back on November 15th. The Hawks promptly lost the next game, by 11, to Boston.

On the road, things have not gone well for Atlanta either. They're just 3-15 straight up and being outscored by six points per game. Their last road win came back on December 2nd at Brooklyn. I'm actually a little shocked to see the Hawks are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall. But, as you might have guessed, that's a byproduct of a lot of large spreads. With that not being the case here, it's good to think "the other way," and here w/ Phoenix, they'll be looking to bounce back from a double digit loss here at home on New Year's Eve to Philadelphia. Prior to that, they'd won 5 of 7. Against teams w/ losing records, the Suns do have a winning SU record, something the Hawks cannot say about themselves. The Suns' home record would be better if not for the games leading scorer Devin Booker missed. 8* Phoenix

8* Towson (7:00 ET): The Colonial is nowhere close to what it was in its "heyday" (w/ VCU and George Mason's Final Four runs bring the conference to nat'l prominence) and the team that has dominated the last couple seasons (UNC Wilmington) is expected to take a step back in 2018. Thus, we have ourselves yet another a wide-open race. Both teams here figure to be "players" in the CAA race, along w/ favorite (College of) Charleston. Now, that being said Towson does not come into this game playing well. They've lost three in a row, all "true" road games, including their CAA opener - at the aforementioned Charleston. Here, they play a fourth straight "true" roadie, at Elon, who won (here at home) over Drexel Saturday. 

Prior to the current three-game skid, Towson had started the year 10-1 SU. I still rank them as the 2nd best team in the CAA (after Charleston) despite the losses. Something to note is that the Tigers were actually favored at Pitt last week. Even though they lost, that's a lot of respect from the marketplace. The Tigers are quite battled-tested by this point as they've played only four home games (won them all). Despite that, and the three-game skid, they're still outscoring foes by an impressive 9.4 points per game. Usually, their defense is very stout (allowing 39.0 FG% for the year), but on Saturday, they let Charleston shoot above 51%. I don't see that happening again, especially not in B2B games.

Elon is 5-0 SU at home after a 90-75 win over Drexel as 6.5-pt favorites. Prior to that, they went to Terre Haute and upset Indiana State as six-point dogs. So the Phoenix are playing well right now? But can they summon up a third straight quality performance? I'm not convinced. They're only +1.8 PPG despite the 9-5 SU record and Saturday's offensive showing, where they scored 90 pts on 49.1% shooting, is atypical compared to what we usually see from them. We're only two weeks removed from the Phoenix losing by 16 at Canisius and three weeks from them losing by 31 at UNC Greensboro. They scored just 95 pts - total - in those two games and shot terribly. They're also just 1-4 ATS as underdogs this season. 8* Towson

10* Over Bucks/Raptors (7:35 ET): All of the chatter about the Eastern Conference tends to focus on Cleveland and Boston. Yet, by several metrics, it is Toronto that comes into 2018 as the team playing the best in the conference. Milwaukee is another team looking to "crash the party" come playoff time, and even though they've been outscored this season, they sit sixth in the East (same as last year). These two teams clash New Year's Day (why else would I be talking about them?). Though they did struggle a bit at the end of the month, the Raptors did just go 11-3 SU in December and they should play well here at home where they're 13-1 SU for the year. Milwaukee is off B2B wins, over Minnesota and Oklahoma City, the latter of which was not w/o controversy (read one!). I'm on the Over in this one as I expect both teams to have no problem scoring.

Toronto has NOT shot well recently (40.5 FG% L5 Games), but here at home this is a prolific offense. They average 114.4 PPG on 48% shooting here North of the Border. Thus, it should not be surprising that the Over is also 9-5 at the Air Canada Center. We saw how dominant they can be here on Friday, albeit against Atlanta, in a 111-98 win. The team didn't even shoot that well in the win. But this remains a top five offense in terms of efficiency and a difference between this game and last is they'll be facing a fellow top 10 offense. 

This won't be the same Bucks team that the Raptors eliminated in LY's playoffs as Milwaukee now has PG Eric Bledsoe. The Bucks went Over in 11 of 12 games (one push) in December, before staying Under in the last two. They held the T'wolves and Thunder to just 95.5 PPG, but it will be far more challenging defensively tonight. The Minnesota win required a massive comeback, one that saw them hold the T'wolves to just 12 pts in the 4th quarter. Then came the OKC game w/ the controversial ending as Giannis Antetokounmpo clearly stepped out of bounds before hitting the game winner. Had there been overtime, who knows, that would have probably been another Over for the list. The bottom line though is Milwaukee scored 38 pts in the 1Q vs. OKC and it never should have gotten to that point. The Bucks do allow 107 PPG on the road. 10* Over Bucks/Raptors 

10* West Virginia (5:00 ET): This is a potentially great matchup for New Year's Day w/ two of the heavyweights from the Big 12 facing off. Both won their respective conference openers, WVU over Oklahoma State and Kansas State over Iowa State. Even more impressive is that both wins came on the road. Can Bob Huggins' Mountaineers now make it B2B road wins? Well, considering they've won their last 12 games, I'd answer in the affirmative. WVU has ascended to 7th in the latest national rankings and while they may not be quite that good, I definitely have them ahead of Kansas State, whose 11-2 SU record hasn't exactly come at the expense of many good times. It's tough winning at the "Octagon of Doom," but WVY can do it. 

In fact, they almost did it last year, losing by only four (were -3.5). Note that after that loss, they'd go on to drub K-State in Morgantown (by 19) and then beat them again in the Big 10 Tourney. Overall, they've beaten the Wildcats in seven of the previous eight head to head meetings. As per usual, "Press Virginia" is creating a lot of turnovers; 21 per game, in fact, for the season. This is a very balanced (and deep) team that ranks in the top 20 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency (per KenPom). Only three other teams in the country - Michigan St, Purdue and Kansas can also lay claim to that. Six different Mountaineers scored in double figures Saturday in Stillwater as they outscored OK State 46-33 in the 2nd half. 

Six Big XII teams currently find themselves ranked in the Top 25, but Kansas State is NOT one of them, which is somewhat telling. I don't always agree w/ the pollsters and this is one of those cases where I'm "with them" as I don't have Bruce Weber's team ranked in my top 40 despite their 11-2 SU record! Remember that they lost outright to Tulsa last month. They do hold road wins over Vandy and Iowa State, but that's about it. The win Saturday over Iowa State was KSU's first in Ames since 2011. I seriously doubt we'll see a repeat performance from junior Dean Wade, who went for a career-high 34 pts in that game. As a team, the Wildcats shot better than 55% from the floor Saturday, including 13 of 26 from three-point range (Iowa St was just 4 of 15 from 3-pt range). That also won't be duplicated. 10* West Virginia

8* Minnesota (5:05 ET): There is some question as to who will exactly be suiting up here (on both sides!), but I believe that in the end, the T'wolves will have the stronger lineup, especially if Victor Oladipo can't go for the Pacers. Oladipo is currently listed as "doubtful" for Sunday's game due to a knee injury that has kept him out the last two games. Honestly, I'd be shocked if he played here as HC Nate McMilan has already gone on the record in saying Oladipo will likely be out. The results haven't been good w/o Oladipo, the team's leading scorer, as the Pacers have lost three in a row. Not only did they lose by double digits twice, but they lost to Dallas at home. Minnesota could be w/o Andrew Wiggins, but they're better built to sustain in his absence and they've been a hotter team of late. 

On Thursday, the T'wolves had a five-game win streak snapped in Milwaukee (lost by six). Now, that was the first game played w/o PG Jeff Teague, but that still didn't stop Minny from racing out to a 20-pt lead in the third quarter. It was their third game in four nights, so that prob helps explain why they blew the lead, contributing to a night of incredible comebacks all around the league. Despite not having Teague, the T'wolves probably still should have won that game (were outscored 27-12 in 4Q). They're better rested now (2 days off!) and it needs to be stated how this is legitimately a very good team. Minnesota has not lost B2B games since before Thanksgiving!

This is the second matchup of the year between these two teams. Indiana won the 1st, 130-107, as they shot a season-best 66.7% from the floor. Needless to say, that kind of percentage isn't going to be repeated here. Furthermore, it's the Pacers that now need to be concerned about defense as they just allowed a Chicago team (that was dead last in the league in offensive efficiency) to go 18 of 39 from three-point range on Friday. It was the Pacers' fourth consecutive ATS defeat, all of them coming to subpar teams. This will be Indiana's fourth game in six nights as well. No Oladipo means trouble for the Pacers. 8* Minnesota

8* Valparaiso (4:00 ET): Missouri Valley play got underway this week and in the case of Valpo, it did not go well. The Crusaders lost at Indiana State, 73-64, as one-point road favorites. But let's look at that situation, shall we? The game came at the end of a ridiculous SIX-game road swing (all "true" road games, at that), one that had taken them out to the West Coast for a couple of games prior to the Holiday break. Now, they're back at home - for the 1st time in December! I think that counteracts the fact that their opponents here, Missouri State, have been off for nine days since winning their MVC opener, 64-59 over Loyola (at home). The Bears come into this game having won 9 of 10, but I'm not ready to buy into them.

I've said this before, but the Missouri Valley is wide open this year due to the departure of Wichita State. Valpo replaced the Shockers, keeping this a 10-team league, but it is Missouri State that was labeled by many as the new favorite. Tip your cap to the Bears for holding Loyola, who was thought to have the best offense in the league coming into the season, to just 59 points. The game before that, the Bears held Wright State to only 28.1% shooting. For the season, the Bears are allowing just 38.2% shooting. Therefore, it shouldn't come as much of a shock to find that the one time this year they allowed better than 50% shooting, happens to be their last loss. That was also their last "true" road game, at Oral Roberts, who went for 73 pts on 53.1% shooting. 

Again, Valpo has got to be thrilled to be back on campus as they are a perfect 5-0 straight up here this season and are outscoring their visitors by an incredible margin of 28.0 points per game! The Crusaders can play a little defense as well as they're holding foes to just 39.0% shooting for the year. At home, that percentage dips down to 33.0% (just 24.4% from 3-pt range!) and opponents score only 54.8 PPG here. They went just 1-5 SU on that brutal road trip, but had started out 8-0 SU before that. Note too that the Crusaders are off B2B outright losses as a favorite. In addition to being a very short favorite over Indiana State on Thursday, they were laying 6.5 to UC Riverside in a 73-60 loss on 12.20. The market still respects them though, and so do I. 8* Valparaiso

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Thus far, it has not been a positive West Coast swing for the Cavs as they first dropped a game to the Warriors on X-Mas Day, then came in w/ a "Holiday Hangover," losing to the lowly Kings on Wednesday. So my view is that the reigning three-time Eastern Conference Champs will be pointing to this game as a "get well spot" and thankfully the reeling Jazz will be all too kind to oblige them. Utah has dropped six of seven, the most recent loss coming by 25 pts at Golden State. They have been as bad as any team in the league this month (2-10 SU overall since December 5th), thus I'll disregard the fact LeBron and company are a money-burning 5-22 ATS as favorites this season (that eventually has to turn around, right?). Lay the points.

Cleveland beat the Jazz earlier this month, 109-100, at home obviously. They didn't cover however (were laying -9.5), yet I'm a little surprised no real adjustment has been made by the oddsmakers for this rematch. As I stated above, Utah has not been good recently. Their last five losses have all come by double digits (14 or more), four of those coming by 20+! Now this is a much better team here at home and the recent schedule hasn't been kind w/ a plethora of road games. But there's no Rody Gobert either and that's had a real adverse effect on the team defense, which has allowed the L5 opponents to shoot 49.5% from the floor while averaging 106.5 PPG. 

Cleveland is all offense, but has been shut down dramatically the L2 games. They shot a mystifying 25% from two-point range against the Warriors and then just 43.2% overall against a Sacramento team that is awful defensively. Something I've been harping on for weeks now is that the Cavs are awful defensively themselves, but that should NOT hurt them here as Utah plays at a slow pace (bottom five in possessions per game). Before getting held under 100 pts in B2B games, Cleveland had topped the century mark in 26 consecutive games. They've made 10 or more three-pointers in 20+ consecutive games. Too much offense here from the road favorite and this is LeBron James' birthday, so he should be highly motivated. This is a small number the oddsmakers have attached, so a SU win likely = a cover. 10* Cleveland

10* Davidson (4:30 ET): Steph Curry's alma mater is off a 7th place finish in the Diamond Head Classic as they won their final game out on the island (Hawaii), thereby avoiding finishing last in the eight-team field. Now it's time to start Atlantic 10 play and the Wildcats do so here w/ a very favorable matchup against a Richmond squad that is struggling mightily. The host Spiders have dropped eight of nine, the lone win during that stretch coming by three over James Madison. Adding to the motivation, this is a double revenge spot for Davidson as they dropped both meetings LY, including one as 11-point home favorites on New Year's Eve. Though Richmond hasn't played in a week, they are off an OT loss (to Boston College) and a game that was actually delayed a day (weather) before that. I'm laying the points.

Davidson's 91-78 win over Akron on Christmas was their best offensive effort of the month, led by Kellan Grady's career-best 30 points. In retrospect, things could have gone much better for the Wildcats out in Hawaii, but they dropped two close games, one to the host. They shot only 38.1% from the field against Hawaii and that was preceded by a last-second loss to New Mexico State (by one). That loss to NMSU was particularly brutal when you consider a second half rally had Davidson in front by seven w/ 7:35 to go (trailed by eight at halftime).

Richmond is only 1-5 SU on its home court this season, largely due to the fact they are allowing visitors to shoot at a 53.3% clip here. So I'm expecting a second straight strong offensive showing from Davidson (average 79.3 PPG already) here. The Spiders are just 2-10 SU overall and getting outscored by 11.5 points per game. As I mentioned earlier, they did take their last opponent (Boston College) to overtime and that came after the game vs. Bucknell was delayed a day due to weather (5" snow). Even after the long break and this still being relatively early in the season, you have to wonder what the Spiders have left to give. Right now, they project as the weakest team in the Atlantic 10, so this is a game Davidson simply MUST win if it wants to remain remotely relevant in the conference race. 10* Davidson

8* Washington (10:30 ET): Pac 12 play commences on Friday and this is an interesting conference to handicap. Arizona is usually the favorite here, but it is their Territorial Cup rival (Arizona State) that has taken the nation by storm as the Sun Devils are currently one of only three teams w/o a loss this year. However, it's safe to say that ASU is nowhere close to its #3 ranking in terms of true talent (I have them barely cracking the Top 25). Beyond the two Arizona teams, it's anyone's guess as right now I don't see the Pac 12 sending a ton of teams to the NCAA Tournament. USC is the presumed third-best team, but there's a gap between them and ASU and I certainly wouldn't want to be caught laying double digits w/ the Trojans in this spot. Take the points.

USC is off a successful trip to Hawaii as they won the Diamond Head Classic over the Holiday. The Championship Game of that tournament was played Christmas Day w/ the Trojans prevailing 77-72 over New Mexico State. Not that the Aggies are a bad team (they aren't), but I think it speaks volumes that USC was only a four-point favorite in that spot. They won and covered all three tourney games, but two of the wins (also Akron) were by five points or less. This team struggled after Thanksgiving, losing three straight, although that was against a pretty tough competition. But, remember, they also lost here at home to Princeton (overtime). Southern Cal was tied at the half against New Mexico State and needed a Ryan Boatwright three-pointer w/ 4.1 seconds left in the game, just to pull out the SU win. I view this as an EXCELLENT spot to fade the Trojans.

Washington actually comes in w/ the better non-conf record of the two as they are 10-3 as opposed to USC's 9-4. After suffering two early season losses (Providence, Va Tech), the Huskies have won eight of nine, including three straight. Like USC, there have been some close calls lately w/ two (Loyola Marymout, Montana) of those three straight wins coming by three points or less. This is actually Washington's first "true" road game of the season, but I'm expecting a closely contested affair as they're better rested having not played a game in the last week. They average a healthy 80.5 PPG. 8* Washington

10* Miami (8:05 ET): Looking at the current Eastern Conference landscape and what I thought it might look like back at the start of the season, it's safe to say Miami has been one of the bigger disappointments. Now, some of that is owed to the 13-game absence of Hassan Whiteside, who returned to the lineup earlier this week. But were it not for a loss at sorry Atlanta, the Heat would be coming into this game as winners of six of seven. In Whiteside's return, they dominated a bad Orlando team on Wednesday, winning 107-89 (4th quarter scoring was mostly responsible for that MOV). They host another bad team tonight, that being Brooklyn, who has dropped seven of eight including all three on the current road trip. I'll lay the points.

Brooklyn's one win in the last two weeks came by a 35-pt margin (at home) over Washington. Other than that, they've been outscored by 88 pts in the seven losses. This team is a disaster defensively as they are allowing an East-high 110.7 PPG. Three times in the last seven games, they allowed 120 or more. This is owed to the fact they play at one of the fastest paces in the league, but like fellow also-rans (the Lakers, Phoenix and Orlando), it's not really working out for them. Nor has playing Miami as the Nets are just 1-7 SU/ATS the previous eight meetings, including a loss down in Mexico City (101-89) earlier this month.

I expect Whiteside to play more minutes here than he did vs. Orlando (18) and for the Heat to drastically slow the tempo of this game down. In terms of number of possessions, no team's games see fewer than this one, at least in the East. Whiteside being back will also dramatically help Miami's defense, which just gave up only 89 pts to an Orlando team that (like I mentioned earlier) likes to place "fast," just like the Nets. D'Angelo Russell remains out for the Nets, by the way. There's just "something" about Friday nights for the Heat as they're a perfect 7-0 ATS on this day this season. 10* Miami 

10* Portland (10:35 ET): I think we've gone from "trusting" back to questioning "the process" in Philly. Make no mistake about it, the 76ers have been built the "right way" and will eventually be a force in the Eastern Conference. But I thought oddsmakers and the public were being far too optimistic w/ a win projection approaching .500 this season. Remember, they only won 28 all of last year (against 54 losses). I did NOT think the Sixers would be a playoff team this year and sure enough, a surprisingly hot start has subsided and the team now finds itself three games below .500, even after the win on X-Mas Day over the Knicks. Prior to that, they had gone 0-5 SU and ATS their L5 games. Lay the points w/ Portland here.

The Blazers have had some time off to recoup. They did not play X-Mas, nor did they play either of the L2 days. They've been off ever since a 95-92 win over the Lakers on 12.23. That was a game where the bench actually scored 41 of the 95 pts, led by Maurice Harkless' 22. I expect a MUCH better performance from the starting five tonight, especially seeing as PG Damian Lillard (DNP vs. Lakers) is expected back. Lillard ranks sixth in the league in PPG (26.2) and also missed the team's 102-85 loss to Denver on 12.22. This is a really important game for the Blazers, who have not won on their home floor since November 18th against Sacramento (lost six straight!). It's also a revenge spot as they lost out in Philly, 101-81 (as 4-pt dogs), last month. In that game, the Blazers shot only 33.3% from the field. They'll almost certainly improve upon that number tonight.

This will be the third straight road game for Philadelphia, who before holding the Knicks to 98, had allowed 100+ in 15 straight games. They've actually covered five straight meetings w/ Portland, but when visiting the Moda Center are accustomed to getting more points than this. While both of these teams can expect to compete for one of the final playoff spots in their respective conferences the rest of the way, Portland is better and there's value here laying the points. Over the L5 games, the Blazers are giving up an average of only 97.2 PPG and are the much better defensive team here. 10* Portland

10* Detroit (8:00 ET): Horizon League play commences on Thursday and w/ Valparaiso having bolted for the "greener pastures" of the Missouri Valley, this particular conference race seems to be wide open. Well, to be fair, Oakland is probably the favorite, followed by the team that won the Conf Tourney LY, Northern Kentucky. The two teams playing here, Detroit and Green Bay, are probably "middle of the pack" teams, but that doesn't make this game any less important. Especially w/ both entering conference play having losing records. Detroit, in particular, appears to be in real trouble as they've lost SEVEN in a row. But that will have them as the more "desperate" side here and thus I'll take the points.

The Titans of Detroit will play their first two Horizon League games on the road w/ a date in Milwaukee following this one, on Saturday. There are definitely some defensive issues that need fixing here - in a hurry - if they are going to have any success in the conference portion of the schedule. Giving up 89.8 PPG is not a reciepe for success and counteracts the fact they average 84.4 PPG themselves. Five of those seven straight losses have been by single digits (other two to UCLA and Michigan) and some of those could have been flipped to W's w/ some better defensive effort. Thankfully, here, they may have found the perfect opponent. Green Bay comes in shooting only 41.1% from the field for the season and was held to 60 pts in its last game.

Now that last game for the Phoenix was against Wisconsin. But they also dropped their previous home game, to Bowling Green. Overall, it's four losses in the past six games and both wins were against non-board teams. In fact, Green Bay has just one win over a lined foe and it was a two-point win, as a home dog, over Eastern Illinois. So I wouldn't be in a rush to lay points w/ this team right now. They were favored in both meetings vs. Detroit LY, but failed to cover each time, once losing outright (as 5-pt road favorites). Consider that they shot better than SIXTY PERCENT in the two games combined, something they almost assuredly will NOT be doing here, and still failed to cash. These teams have a history of playing close games. All signs point to taking the points. 10* Detroit

10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): Even though they are off (arguably) their biggest win of the season to date (over Houston, 112-107, on Christmas Day), I expect no letdown from the Thunder here as you should look for this team to quietly move up the standings in the Western Conference once we hit 2018. In fact, their predictable ascension has already started to take hold w/ five straight wins (7-1 SU L8) putting them into a fifth place tie (w/ Denver) entering play on Wednesday. As for the opponent, Toronto, they may have already hit peak value as they lost last night in Dallas, 98-93, snapping a six-game win streak. A weak schedule was a big reason for a 10-1 SU start to December, North of the Border. The Raptors are 16-2 SU against sub-.500 foes in 2017, but only 7-7 SU against winning teams. Lay the points.

Playing in the second night of a back to back (on the road, no less) puts Toronto even more "against the wall" tonight. Yes, in the past, I've often said that teams are UNDERvalued in the second leg of a B2B and while - from a strict power ratings perspective - that appears to be the case here, looks can also be deceiving. It really can't be overstated just how weak the Raptors' recent schedule had been as they'd played struggling Philly twice, not to mention Charlotte, Sacramento (twice), Brooklyn, Phoenix (twice!) as well as the depleted Clippers and Grizzlies. This is a big step up in class, nevermind the fact they just lost to a bad Dallas team last night. DeMar DeRozan had one of "those nights" on Tuesday, shooting just 3 of 16 from the field and finishing w/ only eight points. As a team, the Raptors shot just 33.7% from the field. 

You might be thinking "well, Toronto will definitely improve on that shooting tonight." That's probably accurate, but to what degree. As I've been harping on for weeks now, OKC is #3 in the league in defensive efficiency. The "key" to this team starting worse than expected was that they went 0-5 SU in games decided by six points or less. They've since gone 9-1 SU in such contests. They're 11-3 SU overall in December, which is fairly comparable to the Raptors' record this month. Toronto isn't nearly the team on the road that they are at home while, conversely, OKC is significantly better at home than on the road. 10* Oklahoma City

8* Arkansas (8:00 ET): The Razorbacks may not be ranked, but they do find themselves near the top of the "others receiving votes" category as they've only lost twice, albeit both times in blowout fashion. The first was a NCAA Tournament rematch w/ North Carolina while the other occurred in their only "true" road game to date (at Houston). Tonight should be another blowout, only this one being in their favor as they come off extended rest (last played eight days ago). The last game was another blowout that went their way, that one being a 104-69 demolition of Oral Roberts. They had no problem covering a 24-pt spread there, making it four consecutive SU and ATS wins for the Hogs. Make it five in a row here as we lay the points.

They may not be ranked, but I could make a case for the Razorbacks being one of the 15 best teams in America (they are #7 in RPI!). They are top 50 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency, ranking 18th in the former. Despite the two blowout losses, they have still managed to outscore opponents by an average of 16 PPG and here in Fayatteville, that number jumps all the way up to 25.3 PPG. During the current 4-game SU/ATS win streak, they've been a favorite of 16.5 or more points three times (and obviously covered every time). Only one of their six wins has been decided by fewer than 16 pts and that was against Minnesota (who came in ranked #14), a game they covered by double digits. Coming off the layoff, I expect little to no rust as the Hogs' ATS record when playing w/ 7+ days rest is 8-2. Last time out, they led Oral Roberts by 29 at halftime. They shot nearly 60% for the game and forced 27 turnovers. 

I should probably mention the opponent, no? Just like Oral Roberts, CS-Bakersfield is going to be ill-equipped to deal w/ the highest scoring team in the SEC and the pressure it brings. Four times this season, the Razorbacks have forced 19+ turnovers. While the WAC contingent has been better at protecting the basketball lately, that's only b/c they've been facing a weaker slate of opponents. Earlier in the year, they turned it over 25x against Northern Arizona. Despite the weak slate, the Roadrunners have still lost 5 of 8. This is just their fifth lined opponent of the season, and EASILY the toughest, save for Arizona (whom they lost to by 32). 8* Arkansas

10* Under Nets/Spurs (8:35 ET): It was rare not to see the Spurs play on X-Mas, but I'm sure Greg Popovich's team welcomed the day off, following a three-game road tip. You've got to tip your cap to them (again!) as despite not having Kwahi Leonard at the start of the year, they still have managed to maintain the third best record in the Western Conference. Tonight, on paper, looks like an easy one as they host the struggling Nets, who have dropped five of six. This is a battle of contrasting styles as Brooklyn plays at the 4th fastest tempo in the league while San Antonio plays at the second slowest. I'll side w/ the more proven commodity (SA) establishing its "style of game," which means Under is the way to go here (too many points to lay).

The Spurs, as per usual, rank near the top of the league in defensive efficiency (tied for third). They allow a league-low 98.0 PPG and are one of only two teams to currently be allowing below triple digits (Boston is the other). Over the L5 games, four of them wins, they're allowing an average of just 95.4 PPG. The one game they lost though (Utah), they scored only 89 pts themselves. Still, they've allowed more than 105 pts just one time all month and that was against one of the top two offenses in the league (Houston). Brooklyn may like to go fast on offense, but they're not efficient as they rank just 19th in points per possession. That explains why 11 of their last 14 games have stayed Under. 

Defensively, these teams are obviously "worlds apart" as the Nets allow the fourth most points per game in the league. But San Antonio plays at that deliberate pace, so while they may be efficient, I don't have them scoring a ton of points in this spot. Realize that the Spurs have failed to hit 100 pts SEVEN times in December and have topped 105 pts only three times. One of those was the last game against Sacramento (who is even worse defensively than Brooklyn). That was one of just three games this month the Spurs shot 50% or better. The Spurs are a perfect 10-0 Under this season facing a team that allows at least 106 PPG. They are also 7-1 Under when playing w/ exactly two days rest. Also, note the final score of Brooklyn's last game is misleading as it went into overtime. 10* Under Nets/Spurs

10* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): Minnesota made most people's "most improved list" for this season and thus far they have not disappointed, jumping out to a 20-13 SU start, which is good enough for fourth in the rugged Western Conference. Entering this game, they have won three straight (and six of eight) despite some defensive deficiencies. We've begun to see this team favored more often, even on the road, but it hasn't treated them too well as they're just 9-14-2 ATS as chalk. On Christmas Night, they'll travel to LA and face another team that's improved from last year, albeit not by as much as the T'wolves have. But the Lakers are a tough out (6-2 ATS) and a SIGNIFICANTLY better team on the defensive end here. So I'll take the points.

Last year, the Lakers ranked dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. This year, they have risen to 7th! Don't look simply at points per game allowed; the Lakers typically play higher possession games than do the T'wolves. Let's credit the defensive efficiency as the primary reason LA has jumped up closer to respectability. Yes, their record is only 11-20 SU (inverse of Minnesota!). But they've only been outscored by 2.5 points per game. Consider the T'wolves have the opposite record despite a per game point differential of only +1.7. 

Off a three-point loss to Portland (where HC Luke Walton called the team out for "pouting"), expect a motivated Lakers squad here. This team has recently played Golden State tough (twice!). Due to an injured quad, Brandon Ingram did not play vs. Portland, but I won't be surprised to see him in the lineup here. I just don't trust a T'wolves team that is allowing opponents to shoot better than 48% for the season to lay points away from home. They've allowed 104+ point in four consecutive games. This will also be their third consecutive road game in a six-day span.  The Lakers were actually favored against Portland (closed -3), which I didn't understand, but the underdog role certainly suits them better. Sure enough, we find them at 10-4 ATS this season when taking on a team that has a winning record. 10* LA Lakers

8* Over Cavs/Warriors (3:05 ET): My read on Cleveland has been pretty consistent this year: Maybe they'll wind up as the best team in the East, but it's difficult to take them seriously in a potential NBA Finals matchup with either the Warriors or Rockets given a woeful defense that currently ranks 27th in efficiency. To put that ranking in its proper perspective, the only teams giving up more points per possession are: Phoenix, Atlanta and Sacramento (three worst teams in the league?). Now they play old nemesis Golden State, who is #2 in the league in offensive efficiency. The Cavs are a perfect 6-0 ATS as underdogs so far this season, but are also #3 in offensive efficiency themselves. This has "Over" written all over it.

These teams are obviously no strangers to one another. This will be the third year in a row they're meeting on X-Mas Day (home team won each time) and of course they've met in three straight NBA Finals. The Warriors famously "blew a 3-1 lead" in the '16 NBA Finals (Cleveland's 1st pro sports championship of any kind since the 1950s!), but there was no such meltdown in LY's Finals as the Dubs finished things off in five games. The last four all went Over the total and the oddsmakers couldn't set the O/U lines high enough as all of the games saw at least 231 total pts scored, three of them seeing 245 or more scored! The O/U line here seems like "child's play" in comparison. 

Now neither squad is necessarily at full strength or similar to what they were in LY's Finals. Golden State won't have Steph Curry, who has been out since early in the month, but they have the luxury of still having Kevin Durant (not to mention Draymond Green and Klay Thompson). I'm going on the record here and guaranteeing the Warriors will shoot better here than they did Saturday when they were held to a season-low 81 points by Denver, which included 3 from 27 from three-point range. Cleveland has given up 112+ points in four of its last six games and is allowing a 49.1 FG% its last five. Golden State averages 115 PPG and shoots better than 50% from the field. Not to be outdone, the Cavs average 111.3 PPG, have made at least 10 three-pointers in 22 straight games and last failed to top 100 pts all the way back on October 29th. 8* Over Cavs/Warriors

10* Under Bucks/Hornets (7:05 ET): This is the second leg of a home and home between these two teams. My worst fears concerning Charlotte were confirmed last night (they were my 10* play of the week!) as they (again!) failed to hold a lead and had to settle for a 'push', losing by five. Milwaukee scored the game's final nine points. Note that result doesn't even add to the Hornets' atrocious 0-13 SU record in games decided by THREE points or less the L2 seasons. Also note that the game just barely snuck Over the total (by 4 pts over closing line), the seventh straight Bucks game to do so! The Over is now 9-0-1 in Bucks games this month. But familiarity not only breeds contempt, it can also breed an Under and that's what will happen here. 

Charlotte had the lead going into the fourth quarter last night, but scored only 19 pts in the final 12 minutes. That was despite losing Dwight Howard to a finger injury just two minutes into the game. But the real blow came in the final two minutes when Kemba Walker left (injury undisclosed) and the Hornets never scored again. (How cursed is this team?). Now there's a chance that neither Howard nor Walker play and that would obviously be a massive blow to a team already playing w/o Cody Zeller. The Hornets shot 46.2% from three-point range yday (12 of 26), a number that would be difficult to duplicate even if Walker played tonight. The team is 4-1 Under this season when playing in the second game of a back to back.

Milwaukee is not a great defensive team by any means, but last night's effort was their best (in terms of points allowed) in nearly two weeks. Obviously, if Howard, Walker or both did not play here, it would be a huge boost. Charlotte does not shoot the ball well to begin with (43.7 FG%) and would be totally lost w/o Walker, who had 32 pts last night. So, defensively, I think the Bucks are going to be just fine tonight. What about the offense? Well, playing w/o rest works against them too as it was basically three players - Antetokounmpo, Middleton and Bledsoe - carrying the load last night. That trio combined for 78 pts and had 22 of the team's 26 in the 4Q. Asking for anywhere close to a repeat of that seems like a 'tall order.' Milwaukee's Over streak ends here. 10* Under Bucks/Hornets

10* North Carolina (1:30 ET): This is a case of "wrong place, wrong time" for Ohio State on Saturday afternoon in New Orleans, as part of the CBS Sports Classic. North Carolina is off a humiliating 79-75 loss to Wofford at home on Wednesday and I suspect will be "out for blood" as a result. Despite that embarrassment, I think it's still fair to consider the Tar Heels to be one of the top 10 teams in the country. They come into today WAY undervalued against an Ohio State team that has a similar record (10-3 SU) but is still not even in my top 40. The Buckeyes have played only one "true" road game so far, and while it was a very impressive win (83-58 over Wisconsin!), it was a conference game. Lay the points here in a "get well spot" for Roy Williams' team.

The last time UNC lost B2B games was February of 2016. Prior to the shocker vs. Wofford, their only other loss was to #2 Michigan State and they immediately responded w/ a double digit win over another Big 10 squad, that being Michigan. Making the Wofford loss all the more perplexing is the fact UNC attempted a season-high 38 free throws in that game, even making 28. They'd won 23 straight in Chapel Hill previously, but couldn't make a shot Wednesday as they were limited to 36.4% shooting for the game. Wofford, who was picked to finish SIXTH in the SoCon, was a 25.5-pt dog and led the entire second half. Simply put, you won't see a more shocking upset the rest of this College Basketball season. Remember though; it was Sunday where I cashed these Tar Heels in an impressive road win over Tennessee. 

Ohio State has played only one ranked team all season and that game did not go well as they were trounced by Gonzaga, 86-59. Gonzaga is of course the team that lost to UNC in last April's National Champ Game. The Buckeyes are only 8-15 straight up, all-time, against top five foes. They have largely feasted on a weak non-conf schedule w/ most of the games taking place in Columbus. I'd say hosting William & Mary, Appalachian State and The Citadel (OSU's last three opponents) is hardly "good primer" for this nationally televised matchup. The Bucks are just 2-7 ATS their last nine neutral court games while UNC is 6-1 ATS laying between 6.5 and 9 pts at a neutral setting. 10* North Carolina

INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY.... PLEASE DISREGARD! 

8* Harvard (12:00 ET): Credit the Ivy League contingent for taking on a challenging non-conf schedule as Thursday's 74-63 triumph over Boston U marked just the THIRD home game of the season to date! It's now B2B wins for the Crimson, who treated me well w/ an "ugly" 47-45 win over Fordham, all the way back on December 6th. So even though this is their second game in three days, this won't be a tired team as it's also only their second game in 17 days! Now there is some possible attrition here as two players - Bryce Aiken and Robert Baker - are both listed as questionable for this afternoon. Aiken, the team's leading scorer, injured his knee vs. Fordham and would be a big loss if he did not play. (Baker is a reserve whose presence won't matter much). Aiken or not, I like Harvard plus the points in this spot. 

GW snapped a two-game losing streak on Wednesday, but it was close as they only beat New Hampshire (non-board team) by four points. The Colonials even had to rally back from a small halftime deficit just to win the 1st ever meeting between the two schools. The team does hold an impressive upset of Temple (as 11.5-pt dogs) last month, but do not have a win by greater than 11 pts all season. Ironically, that 11-pt victory came against another Ivy League school (Princeton), but since that time GW has not shot the ball well, particularly in the losses to Penn State and Miami (both sub 37% performances). Against New Hampshire, they were actually outshot, allowing the Wildcats to connect on 52% of their field goal attempts. 

Meanwhile, following B2B poor shooting nights against Kentucky and Fordham, Harvard was able to regain its shooting touch by hitting 55.3% of its FG attempts vs. Boston U. Keep in mind that came w/o Aiken, which is why I'm willing to somewhat "roll the dice" here w/ the Crimson. The team's five starters made only 10 baskets against Boston U, a number which will certainly go up here, with or w/o Aiken. That will counteract any regression from the reserves, who were sensational (16 of 28 from the field!) the last game. Over the L3 seasons, Harvard has gone 11-1 ATS in the month of December (light schedule due to exams) while George Washington is 16-23 ATS the L39x it has been a favorite. 8* Harvard

10* Over Xavier/Northern Iowa (9:00 ET): Xavier is a very good basketball team, one that's completely worthy of its top 10 ranking. This, however, will be a tricky spot as they head to Cedar Falls to face an always dangerous (especially in the underdog role) Northern Iowa squad. The Panthers have lost only three times this season and those defeats came at the hands of: North Carolina, Villanova and Iowa State. The last of those occurred on Saturday as perhaps they were pointing towards this game, a rare visit from a Top 10 squad. Of course, you could also make the case Xavier was caught "looking ahead" on Tuesday when they only beat Marshall by four as lofty 19-pt favorites. I see no edge when it comes to playing the side in this matchup, but w/ the way Xavier plays, an Over should be in the cards.

The ninth ranked Musketeers come in averaging 87.7 points per game, which is 14th most in the country. Perhaps we all should have seen that close call vs. Marshall coming as the Thundering Herd happen to be one of the 13 teams averaging more points per game (89.1). Xavier comes in shooting the ball very well (52.2 FG%), which is fourth best nationally. However, defense has been a bit of an issue as in three games away from home, they've given up an average of 78.7 PPG. Now that number is obviously skewed by the Arizona State loss (102-86), but w/ this being only the team's second "true" road game of the year, I'd say there's still legit questions about the defense.

On the other hand, there aren't many questions about Northern Iowa's defense as they're allowing only 59.0 PPG overall and just 50.9 here in Cedar Falls! But, something to keep in mind is that the four teams the Panthers held below 50 pts were all non-board teams. They did give up 86 to North Carolina, who shot 50 percent against them. Iowa State went for 76 on Saturday. Xavier is much more efficient than both of those teams (especially Iowa St), so this may very well be a bad matchup for UNI here. I know many in Cedar Falls were hoping a win here could propel them into the Top 25, but I actually have them rated outside of the Top 80 teams in the country! 10* Over Xavier/Northern Iowa

10* Charlotte (8:05 ET): Things are rapidly falling apart in the "Queen City" where a Hornets team that was due to improve this season simply can't buy a break. Consider for a moment that since the start of last season, this team is 0-13 straight up in games decided by three points or less! (I shouldn't need to tell you that is - by far - the worst such record in the league during that time). Also, injuries continue to take their toll w/ Cody Zeller out indefinitely (just as Nic Batum was getting going) and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist hurt his shin in the last game (listed as probable for tonight though!). The "cherry on top" has to be that HC Steve Clifford is away from the team for an indefinite period due to a "health issue."

Despite everything you just read, however, I'm going in big on the Hornets tonight. Yes, they've lost 11 of 13 w/ Wednesday's 18-pt home loss to Toronto being their worst (in terms of margin) since November 25th. But they'd won their game previous to that one, 109-91 over the Knicks. The road has been unkind to Charlotte this season (2-11 SU), but despite that record they're "only" being outscored by 5.4 points per game. Milwaukee is off an emotional win (here at home) over Cleveland earlier in the week (Tuesday), but continues to play poor defense as they've allowed 115, 115, 115 and 116 pts their last four games. One positive sign for the Hornets was that reserve Jeremy Lamb scored a career-high 32 pts in the game vs. Toronto.

This is the front end of a home and home between the two teams. "It's tough to beat a team two times in a row whether it's back to back like it is this week or within a couple weeks or a month," Bucks wing Khris Middleton said. That was proven true earlier this year when these teams split a pair of matchup in late October/early November, each winning on their home floor. The Hornets didn't have Batum for either matchup, but Kemba Walker scored 26 pts (on 8 of 12 shooting) in the win (126-121). Even though they lost on Wednesday, it was Charlotte's second highest scoring game this month. I believe the Bucks will come out flat tonight and their poor defense will cost them in the end. Note that they've been favored only one time in the last five games and lost that game, at home to Chicago. 10* Charlotte

8* Gonzaga (10:00 ET): Compared to last season, when they were still unbeaten and on their way to playing for the National Championship, Gonzaga seems a little bit "under the radar" (ranked #12). However, it should be pointed out that the 'Zags were only ranked 7th at this time last year and this year's squad has taken on a slightly more challenging schedule w/ both losses coming to Top 10 teams (at the time), one of them coming in double overtime. While that 2OT loss to Florida may look worse now, their only other defeat came at the hands of #1 Villanova at a neutral setting. The Bulldogs have had to settle for a pair of OT wins themselves, one of them against North Dakota (!) last week, but are off a 30-pt win on Monday. This may only be their 2nd "true" road game of the year tonight, but I like the Zags laying a small number.

San Diego State is the opposition here and they probably can't wait to take the court, given that they've been off for 12 days and last time we saw them, they dropped a stunner (as 16.5-pt chalk) to Cal on this very floor. The Aztecs have just three losses, all of them to Pac 12 schools, and haven't been an underdog since the second game of the year (at Arizona State). However, they don't exactly have any quality wins to speak of, unless you want to count Georgia (I don't!), who I have rated as the 75th best team in the country. Defense remains the calling card here, even w/ Steve Fisher having been succeeded by long-time assistant Brian Dutcher. The Aztecs are holding opponents to 38.6% shooting and 64.2 points per game. The problem here though is Gonzaga averages 91.8 PPG on 51.4% shooting. Few teams shoot the ball better. At the same time, SDSU is only shooting 30.5% themselves from three-point range.

With the five top scorers from LY's team gone, Gonzaga was expected to take a step back this year. The fact they've only lost twice says something positive about this group though and Mark Few's coaching. They blitzed IUPUI on Monday, 101-71, with Killian Tillie scoring a career-high 27 points. In their only other "true" road game thus far, the Zags crushed Washington by 27 points. I'm not sure what the deal was against North Dakota over the weekend (other than they didn't shoot well), but this spread is a bargain. 8* Gonzaga

10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): Both of these teams lost last night, which is par for the course. We haven't even hit the New Year yet (which is when I really start to re-evaluate my preseason projections in NBA), but suffice to say neither the Grizzlies nor Suns will be finding themselves in the playoffs in the Spring. For Phoenix, that's not a shock as they were expected to be one of the worst teams in the league. "True to form," they are 11-22 SU and have the second worst point differential (Kings) overall. Memphis, a team I personally expected to take a step back in 2017-18, has been a disaster ever since PG Mike Conley went down. They actually have a worse record than the Suns (9-22 SU) as they've lost 18 of their last 20 games w/ the two wins coming a month apart and by only four points total. 

At home here, I believe Phoenix to have the edge and there's actually value on them in this price range. Sure, they're 4-12 SU home record is a league-worst. But note that before losing to the Clippers last night, they'd started their three-game road trip w/ B2B wins, first over Minnesota, then over Dallas. This team has not been favored in a game since 11.19 (at home vs. Chicago) and there is a chance they could close in that role here. They are 7-3 ATS here in December and 5-3 ATS this season playing in the second night of a back to back. Last night, they never led in LA (trailed by 18 at halftime) in an awful shooting night. You have to think they'll play better here against a lesser opponent. 

Last night was also ugly for the Grizz as they scored only 33 pts in the second half on 10 of 44 shooting (yikes!), had 17 turnovers for the game and went 12 of 31 from three-point range. This is among the very worst offensive teams in the league right now and I imagine that w/o Conley, a case could be made that they are the worst on that end of the floor. It's five straight games (and counting?) that they've been held below 100 pts, three of those 87 or less, which is almost unfathomable in today's NBA. They've been just as bad against the spread as they've been straight up since the Conley injury, going 4-15-1 at the pay window. It doesn't matter the opponent; if you don't have to lay points against Memphis right now, then you should jump on the opportunity. 10* Phoenix

10* LA Lakers (8:05 ET): Playing against the Rockets may seem insane right now, but eventually they'll have to "tail off" as the current run has reached a peak of unsustainability. They come into tonight as winners of 14 straight and 20 of their last 21 overall. With Chris Paul in the lineup, they haven't lost a game all season! But tonight, while the SU result may not be in doubt, the oddsmakers have attached a very high spread for this matchup w/ the Lakers. While still not a "playoff team," the Lakers are much improved this year and will likely end up with a better record than the Clippers by season's end. They've only won two of their last 10 games, but the last two losses came against Cleveland and Golden State (by a combined 11 pts). Take the points here.

When assessing the improvement of the Lakers this year, the easiest factor to identify is defense. Last year, they ranked dead last in the league in efficiency. This year, they are 8th. While the L3 games have seen them allow an average of 116.7 PPG, note that they took Golden State to overtime on Monday (tied 102-102 at the end of regulation) in an inspired effort, the night Kobe Bryant's jersey(s) were retired. The Lakers obviously covered the spread in that game, something they also did vs. Cleveland on the road. Their worst loss over these L10 games did come against Houston (by 23), back on 12.3, but they also shot really poorly in that game (38.1 FG%). That was their worst shooting effort in any game in the last month.

Houston crushed Utah by 21 on Monday, their latest in a long line of blowout victories. Tonight marks their sixth straight home game, so the schedule has definitely been friendly. They are 7-1 SU/ATS the last eight meetings w/ the Lakers, but this is a much better LA team than past years. Two of the Lakers' last three losses have come in OT and they've lost to Golden State twice by a combined six points in the last month. The Rockets eventually HAVE to slow down or have at least one slip up. Don't let Monday's final score vs. the Jazz fool you as Houston actually TRAILED going into the fourth quarter. Prior to that, they'd allowed at least 100 pts in five of six games. I believe the Lakers should easily stay within the number here. 10* LA Lakers

8* Georgetown (7:00 ET): Because so much has been made of just how weak the Hoyas' schedule has been to this point, there's going to be a desire amongst bettors to fade this team, almost blindly, on a game by game basis. Those who chose to do so on Saturday got a huge break w/ OT as Syracuse was able to prevail 86-79 as 5.5-pt chalk, handing G'town its first loss of the season. It's important to note that at no point in regulation were the Orange covering the spread, and in fact they were down by as many as 13 in the second half! It remains to be seen how HC Patrick Ewing deals w/ his first career loss, but my guess is that North Texas isn't likely to put up much of a fight here. Lay the points. 

Yes, Georgetown's schedule has been VERY weak. All but one of their games have been at home as they didn't even bother to play in any holiday tournaments. Their eight wins have come against teams that are currently 24-64 straight up. That being said, they have "taken care of business" against most of these lesser foes. Other than the one "true" road game they played (82-76 win at Richmond), the Hoyas have won every game by at least nine points. Now that still wasn't good enough for the oddsmakers most of the time as there were some huge spreads. But one thing I'm counting on tonight is that G'town won't be shooting 2 for 17 from three-point range. Again, mock the schedule all you want, but the Hoyas had Syracuse beat. 

North Texas is in the middle of a four-game trip that will take them all the way around the country. Last time out (Saturday), they upset San Diego, 86-3 as 10-pt dogs. It was the Mean Green's third consecutive victory, two of those come as dogs. Overall, they've covered their last five games, which is the exact opposite of Georgetown. But, even though they've played plenty of road games, UNT's schedule (save for Oklahoma) hasn't been that impressive either. Note that the road win they pulled off on Saturday was pretty rare. Prior to that, they'd lost seven straight "true" road games. So, what are the chances of them now winning two, back to back? Not good, I'd say and G'town is still outscoring its opponents by 15 PPG this season. There will be plenty of spots to fade the Hoyas later in the season, but this is NOT one of them! 8* Georgetown

10* Over Cavs/Bucks (8:05 ET): In my analysis for Sunday's 10* Game of the Week play (on Cleveland), I was sure to mention that the Cavs needed tremendous improvement on the defensive end before I can start taking them seriously as a threat to beat either the Warriors or Rockets in a potential NBA Finals. Even after winning 18 of their last 19 games, they still only rank 27th in defensive efficiency and the three teams below them are: Atlanta, Phoenix and Sacramento (i.e. the three worst teams in the league). At the same time though, they have scored 100+ points in 24 straight games now and made at least 14 three-pointers in 20 straight. That makes taking them Over the total a pretty easy call for me. 

Surprisingly, however, six of Cleveland's last eight games have stayed Under the total. Sunday at Washington, they really benefited from the Wizards (particularly Bradley Beal going cold in the 4th quarter). Saturday's win was over a Utah team that plays at one of the slowest paces in the entire league. Tonight's matchup w/ Milwaukee will be an entirely different "animal." Not only have the Bucks gone Over in each of their five previous games (7-0-1 L8!), but 8 of their last 10 matchups w/ the Cavs have also gone Over. Now, Cleveland is probably NOT the team Milwaukee wanted to see on the schedule Tuesday as they've dropped three in a row coming in, surrendering exactly 115 pts in each loss. They've allowed at least 100 pts in eight consecutive games.

Making Cleveland's win in D.C. Sunday night look more impressive is the fact they were in the second game of a back to back and w/o Dwyane Wade. Tristan Thompson, working his way back from a calf injury, only played 14 minutes. Wade will play tonight and Thompson's workload should increase. As alluded to earlier, scoring should not be an issue for these Cavaliers as they are averaging 112.0 PPG on the road and rank 3rd in offensive efficiency (behind the Warriors and Rockets) overall. But, defensively, those issues persist as they are allowing 107.1 PPG. Over the L5 games, opponents have shot 46.5% from the field against them. At the same time, Milwaukee opponents are shooting 48.3% the L5 games. The last meeting between these two saw 243 total pts scored (no overtime!) and both shot better than 50% from the floor. 10* Over Cavs/Bucks

10* Auburn (8:00 ET): The need to adapt on the fly is a prerequisite for handicapping any sport and in the case of College Basketball something very interesting has happened over the last several seasons. It seems, almost, as if "mid-majors" are getting TOO MUCH respect in games vs. teams hailing from power conferences. This mainly applies to the 1st weekend of the NCAA Tournament, but it also applies in a situation like this when the mid-major gets to play host and you have a short number. Tempting as it may be to take the home dog, in this instance Auburn happens to be significantly better than Murray State and I simply cannot justify this line being this low. Lay the points! 

Auburn comes into tonight w/ a 9-1 SU record and is averaging an impressive 86.0 PPG. They may not have a ton of impressive wins, but their only loss came on a neutral floor to Temple. That was over a month ago and since then the Tigers have won seven in a row, five by double digits. Now last week brought a pair of close encounters as they beat UAB by five and Middle Tennessee by six. I have Middle Tennesse rated higher than Murray State and the same holds true for Temple. So unlike Murray State, this will NOT be Auburn's most difficult opponent to date tonight. Note that the Tigers held a 17-pt lead at half over MTSU, who wound up shooting 50% from three-point range. Auburn typically shoots far better than 27.6% from behind the arc (what they shot vs. MTSU), so expect improvement in that area here. 

Murray State is a very good offensive team as they are currently making over 50% of their FG attempts for the year. They've outscored opponents by 17.6 points per game, but considering Auburn is +14.3 PPG against a slightly more challenging schedule, the Racers' point differential isn't all that impressive. Murray State's only loss came at St. Louis, exactly one week ago, before bouncing back w/ a 100-pt effort against Marist over the weekend. That performance is what likely has the Racers overvalued here as there's simply no way they are going to shoot 62.5% from the field again, especially against a taller and longer opponent. Also, Auburn has won its last four "true" non-conf roadies. 10* Auburn

10* Arizona (9:00 ET): Sean Millers' Wildcats certainly expected better than being on the fringes of the Top 25 coming into the season, but the real shocker for this perennial Pac 12 power is that - right now - they're not even being recognized as the best team in their own state. Arizona State (still undefeated) has caught everyone by surprise, though I assure you that the Sun Devils are certainly NOT one of the five best teams in America. In fact, were the two Territorial Cup rivals to play tomorrow, I can say w/ full confidence that Arizona would be the betting favorite. Aside from a poor showing in the Bahamas (where all three losses took place), Miller's team has been just fine and I'm looking for them to role tonight in Tucson. 

Arizona has won five in a row since that ill-fated trip to the Battle 4 Atlantis and many of those wins have been close (three by six pts or less). But that was against some quality competition, better than what they'll face here. Also, on Saturday, they picked up a nice win at New Mexico (Albuquerque is a tough place to pay), by 16 points, as they shot a blistering 64% from the field. Leading scorer Allonzo Trier was right near his average w/ 22 pts and making his first start of the season, Rawle Alkins scored a career-high 26 pts. Alkins being back from injury is huge as it coincides w/ a time where the team's overall depth is hurting due to injuries to a pair of reserves. Against a more formidable opponent, I might be concerned about that. But not here.

North Dakota State has won B2B games, but this is massive jump up in class from last week when they beat Valley City State (non-board team) 101-58. The Bison did play another Pac 12 team (USC) tough earlier in the year, losing by only 10. But they simply lack the firepower to compete here as they're averaging only 64.2 PPG on the road, which is a far cry from the 94.8 PPG Arizona averages at home. NDSU had its own three-game losing streak shortly after Thanksgiving and it included a 34-pt loss at Mississippi State. The Wildcats will - easily - be the toughest team the Bison face all year and I just don't think they're up for the challenge. Over the L3 seasons, the team is only 9-22 ATS in road games and 6-16 ATS as a dog. 10* Arizona

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Somebody break up the Bulls! What was once a "slam dunk" choice for being "worst team in the league," has all of a sudden won five straight (covered six in a row!) and beaten some good teams along the way (Boston, Utah, Milwaukee). Tonight's opponent certainly won't be the toughest they've faced during this "mini-renaissance," but considering Chicago won't go on winning forever, it's an opportune time to fade them. Plus, the spread is basically a non-factor. The 76ers have been trending in the wrong direction the last couple of weeks, going 1-5 SU and ATS their last six games, but this is a good "get well" spot after suffering some close losses, including that 3 OT affair vs. OKC Friday night. 

I anticipate the Sixers battling for one of the final playoff spots in the East the remainder of the year. Remember, it may not even require a .500 SU record to make the postseason in the Eastern Conference. The team started out quite well this year, getting as high as four games above .500. But right now it's fair to call them "average" as they are allowing the same number of points per 100 possessions that they are scoring. Joel Embiid will NOT play here, nor will Trevor Booker, but I still like the Sixers in the spot nevertheless. Remember, they already hold victories over both Golden State and Cleveland. While they haven't fared well off a SU loss as a favorite this season (0-5 ATS!), I suspect that will change here. 

Chicago's brief resurgence has been led by Nikola Mirotic, who apparently has not been "clued in" to the franchise's plan for tanking. Mirotic has averaged 25 points the L3 games, which have seen the Bulls beat the Celtics, Jazz and Bucks. Each team he has guaranteed victory. He's done so again for tonight, but this "gimmick" can only go on for so long. Before winning their last five games, the Bulls had lost 10 in a row, remember. They are still dead last in the league in offensive efficiency and are being outscored by 8.8 pts per 100 possessions. This spread should be bigger. 10* Philadelphia

10* Cleveland (6:05 ET): The last three games, all SU wins, have nevertheless seen the Cavs fail to cover the spread. However, with one more made basket in each game, or just one more point in the case of the last two, they would be 3-0 ATS! Overall, they're just 2-7 ATS their L9, but all Cleveland fans will want to talk about is the fact the team has lost just ONCE since November 10th, going 17-1 SU in the process. Tonight, a SU win would almost certainly equate to an ATS win as the Cavs are very short road favorites over a Wizards team that has failed to cover four in a row themselves. I know this is the second game of a back to back for Cleveland, but I like them to win big here.

The Cavs still need to improve pretty dramatically on the defensive end for me to buy them as a legit NBA Title contender. Granted, they could still easily win the East, but a 27th place ranking in defensive efficiency won't treat you so well when faced w/ the Warriors or Rockets in a potential NBA Finals matchup. However, those are the only teams that currently rank above Cleveland on the offensive end as last night saw the Cavs shoot better than 50% for a third straight game and they beat a short-handed Utah squad, 109-100. LeBron James is having a great year, even by his standards, and just turned his 60th career triple double last night (third in the last four games!). The team has made at least 10 three-pointers in 19 consecutive games. Tristan Thompson (their best rebounder) is also back in the lineup after missing 19 games. 

While the Cavs continue to lean on LeBron, Washington just got back its main superstar, John Wall. In his second game back from injury, Wall scored 15 in a 100-91 win over the Clippers on Thursday. Washington would seem to have the edge here, with Wall back and having had two days off. But Cleveland has won its last three trips to D.C. and that includes one earlier this year where LeBron scored 57 points. The Cavs have been money-burners as favorites (5-0 ATS a dog!), but this is a number we can work with tonight. The Wizards are just 4-9 ATS on their home floor this season. 10* Cleveland

8* North Carolina (3:00 ET): We have a Top 25 matchup Sunday afternoon in Knoxville w/ Tennessee hosting UNC. However, while the Tar Heels are probably deserving of their current #7 ranking (that's where I have them), I'm not sure I can say the same for the Vols, who to me, are a fringe Top 25 team at best. Now, it's not as if I think Roy Williams' team should be a prohibitive favorite in this spot; it's just that I believe in them winning here. Therefore, with that line of thinking, how could I resist taking them? 

North Carolina certainly comes into this game well-rested. They've been off since December 6th when they drubbed Western Carolina, 104-61 as 32.5-pt favorites. It was their fourth straight win, all of them coming by double digits. The Tar Heels' only loss this year was to Michigan State (at a neutral setting) where they shot an abysmal 24.6% from the floor. Despite that game, they still come in averaging an impressive 88.1 PPG, which is 15th most in the country. UNC is one of only seven teams in the country to rank in the Top 20 in offensive/defensive efficiency at KenPom. They're one of only four to rank in the Top 15 in both categories (11/14), joining the likes of Villanova, Mich State and Purdue. They have played one "true" road game previously this season and it was a rout (24 pts) of Stanford.

Tennessee also has just one loss and it also came to a team currently ranked in the Top 2, in their case being #1 Villanova. That took place back on November 23rd (three days prior to UNC's only loss) and like the Tar Heels, the Vols have bounced back w/ four consecutive wins. However, three of the four wins were by 10 pts or less, including the last one (against Lipscomb). That game was played last Saturday, so Tennessee isn't quite as well-rested as their counterparts are here. Much will be made of the fact the Vols have won five straight times here in Knoxville when hosting the defending National Champion (no matter who it is). Also, HC Williams is just 4-7 SU in "true" road games if the opponent is ranked. But this is the first time UT is hosting a Top 25 opponent when ranked themselves in seven years. I think the spotlight will be "too bright" for them. 8* North Carolina

8* LA Clippers (8:05 ET): Teams playing in the second night of a back to back are oft undervalued, especially when on the road, and that's what I'm banking on here as the Clippers look to bounce back from last night's nine point loss in the Nation's Capital. They still covered mind you, as they were 10.5 pt dogs against the Wizards. That makes it four straight covers for the Clips, all against Eastern Conference competition, as they are still trying to remain relevant in the wake of Blake Griffin's season ending injury. They'd won the previous three straight up as well, beating the Wiz (at home), then Toronto (also at home) and Orlando. Tonight's their third road game in four nights, but the opponent is also playing in the second night of a back to back. Take the points. 

Though last night they upset Charlotte, 104-98 as 5.5-pt dogs, Miami still qualifies as a disappointment so far this season, at least to me. This will also be their third game in four nights, by the way. I cashed the Under in last night's game, but note the Heat's defense strangely gets WORSE here at home where they're allowing 106.2 PPG. Overall, they have a losing record here on South Beach (5-7 SU) and are being outscored by more than five points per game. As a result, their home record at the betting window is just 2-8. Also, they've gone 1-5 ATS off a SU win as a dog this year. So maybe the spot is worse for Miami here!

Neither team has won this year when playing in the second night of a back to back this year as Los Angeles is 0-4 (1-3 ATS) and Miami 0-2 (0-2 ATS). So something has to give and that's probably another argument for taking the points. I have these two teams rated dead even in my own personal power rankings, so the number being above three would seem to be incorrect. We all know the Clips have been snakebitten by injuries this season, but Miami is short-handed now too as they're w/o both Hassan Whiteside and Justise Winslow. Last night, the Heat's two leading scorers were Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington - two reserve guards. That's not something that can be counted upon every night. I look for Clippers' big man DeAndre Jordan to have a big night here and lead his team to a possible outright upset. 8* LA Clippers

10* Oregon (6:00 ET):  Even w/ this being "true" road game #1 for the Ducks, I'm a little perplexed as to the favorite/underdog dynamic here as we have one of the Pac 12's four premier teams going up against a middle of the road group from the Mountain West. I get that Fresno State comes in having won seven in a row, but I don't exactly see a lot of heavyweights on that schedule. Sure, they've been blowing out their competition, but isn't that what you'd expect w/ the likes of Montana State, CS-Bakersfield and Ark Pine-Bluff? Due to covering only one of its previous seven games, Oregon is severely undervalued in this spot.

This will be the third year in a row that these teams are going head to head. Oregon has won each of the last two years, but failed to cover each time. Still though, they were favored by 11.5 in '15 and 15.5 in '16. Granted, both of those games took place in Eugene. But has enough really changed to justify such a swing in the line? I think not. The Ducks did have a bit of trouble around Thanksgiving, dropping three of four games in eight days' time. But they've since bounced back w/ three straight wins, all at home. Wednesday marked the FIFTH time this year that they scored at least 95 pts in a game w/ an 11-pt win over Portland State. They shot 50% overall from the field, including 11 of 27 from three-point range. Another thing to like about this team is they are the best free throw shooting team in the Pac 12. Also, this will be just the second time (this year) the Ducks are dogs. They're 7-3 ATS L10 times taking points.

Lest we forget that Oregon made the Final Four last season. Sure, they are down three starters from that squad, but they remain a top tier team in the top heavy Pac 12. Meanwhile, I'm not even sure that Fresno State will be a legit contender in the Mt West. The Bulldogs aren't a terribly deep team to begin with and are going to be w/o starting guard Jaron Hopkins (back injury). Hopkins is the team's second leading scorer. Furthermore, Johnny McWilliams (a reserve) is questionable w/ an ankle injury. Any kind of foul trouble would be devastating for Fresno State here as the rotation could be down to 6-7 players. Defensively, Oregon is holding its foes to just 37.8% shooting for the year. 10* Oregon 

8* UCLA (3:30 ET): Having thankfully rid themselves of the Ball clan, UCLA can now fully concentrate on winning games. Even amidst all the distractions, they've been doing a pretty good job of that so far, compiling a 7-2 SU record, though one of the two losses occurred their last time out, at Michigan last Saturday. Certainly, the Bruins have had ample time to get over that loss and that's huge because today they welcome in perhaps their toughest opponent to date, in #25 Cincinnati. They're catching them at an opportune time though as the Bearcats just put an end to Mississippi State's unbeaten run earlier this week and that came after their own B2B losses, to Xavier and Florida. Take the points here as I smell an "upset."

Thanks to a game vs. Montana (scheduled for 12.6) being cancelled (due to concerns over nearby wildfires), UCLA has only played one game in the L13 days. It was the aforementioned loss to Michigan, which came in OT and saw the Bruins blow a 15-pt second half lead. Turnovers were an issue as they committed 20 of them up in Ann Arbor. Interestingly enough, the Wolverines had just blown a big lead in their previous game and lost to rival Ohio State. Maybe now it's UCLA's time to "flip the script?" What we do know is the Bruins are 31-7 SU their L38 home games, including 5-0 this year w/ a MOV approaching 20 points per game. Also, they are 7-2 SU the L3 seasons when taking the court w/ five or six days rest.

Cincinnati certainly deserves a better ranking than what they currently have, based on the way they played. But as alluded to above, I hate this spot for them. They had to play a tough game during the week while UCLA was off. Miss State was unbeaten in "name only" and not as tough as UCLA will be though. This is just the 2nd "true" road game for the Bearcats, who lost their first (at Xavier) by double digits. Needless to say, this trip out West is a lot longer than the one across town. The depth issue UCLA has is shared on the Cincinnati bench and though many of the names have changed, remember that the Bruins eliminated the Bearcats from LY's NCAA Tournament. 8* UCLA