10* Over Celtics/Nets (8:05 ET): The Nets are reportedly attracting plenty of action to win the NBA Finals. With the trio of Durant, Irving and Harden, it’s easy to see why they’d be so attractive to the public. But that trio has played just nine games together all season (only 202 total minutes) and I’m a little bit less sold on them championship prospects than others are. But there is no denying that - no matter who Brooklyn has on the court - they are likely to score lots of points. They finished second in scoring in the regular season with 118.6 points per game. I look for Game 1 vs. Boston to go Over the total. 

The Celtics didn’t shoot particularly well in the play-in win over Washington, but they still scored 118 points, led by Jayson Tatum’s 50. They made slightly less than 40% of their total field goal attempts and were 33% from three-point range. They did put up a ton of threes (45) and I expect a high volume again tonight. Overall, I think the team will shoot better than they did Tuesday night. But they certainly can’t count on Brooklyn going 3 for 21 from three-point range like the Wizards did. There is no doubt that Boston will give up more than 100 points here. 

The three regular season meetings between the teams all stayed Under. One of them did see 230 total points and Brooklyn scored 123 and 121 win the first two. It was a bad shooting night for both teams when they met last month.I am anticipating both teams scoring at least 115 tonight. The Over is 7-3 in Brooklyn’s L10 home games. One of the three Unders came when neither Durant nor Harden suited up. 10* Over Celtics/Nets

8* Memphis (9:05 ET): That the Grizzlies were able to still win on Wednesday, despite it being a poor offensive night, is probably a good thing. They did jump out to a commanding 38-19 lead after one quarter. But from there, they scored just 62 points over the final three quarters with 28 of those coming in the fourth as they held on for the 100-96 victory. They shot just 7 of 22 from three-point range and were an ugly 54.2% from the FT line. I say it’s “probably a good thing” (that they shot poorly and still won) because it’s highly unlikely they’ll shoot that poorly again tonight vs. Golden State. 

The Warriors obviously lost on Wednesday, 103-100 to the Lakers, thus setting up this winner take all game. It wasn’t a particularly great shooting game for Golden State either on Wednesday, outside of Steph Curry. Curry had 37 points on 12 of 23 attempts, including 6 of 9 from three. But he had only one teammate score more than 10 points. Yes, it’s likely that Golden State’s “other players” will contribute more now that they’re at home. But might Curry be a different story? Everyone remembers him dropping 46 on the Grizz in Sunday’s regular season finale. But it was somewhat inefficient in doing so, needing 36 shots and he took a season-high 22 3PA. 

Memphis isn’t going to shoot as poorly tonight as they did Sunday nor as poorly as they did on Wednesday. They average 116.6 PPG on the road, which is significantly more than they average at home (109.8). I think most people are going to see Steph Curry and the Warriors laying short number at home and jump all over it. So the Warriors will be a very “public play” tonight (especially with this being the lone game). But I see these teams as being pretty even and the Grizzlies actually posted the higher offensive efficiency rating in the regular season. Memphis is 9-2 ATS L11 as a dog. 8* Memphis

10* Over Grizzlies/Warriors (9:05 ET): That the Grizzlies were able to still win on Wednesday, despite it being a poor offensive night, is probably a good thing. They did jump out to a commanding 38-19 lead after one quarter. But from there, they scored just 62 points over the final three quarters with 28 of those coming in the fourth as they held on for the 100-96 victory. They shot just 7 of 22 from three-point range and were an ugly 54.2% from the FT line. I say it’s “probably a good thing” (that they shot poorly and still won) because it’s highly unlikely they’ll shoot that poorly again tonight vs. Golden State. 

At the same time, the Grizzlies can’t count on the opposition shooting 35.1% again like the Spurs did Wednesday. San Antonio made just eight three-pointers and was actually just 26 of 75 on two-point attempts, which works out to a horrendous 34.6%. I can’t see a Steph Curry-led team shooting that poorly, especially considering Curry went for 46 when these teams just met on Sunday. As a team, the Warriors shot almost 50% and made 15 three-pointers. Curry didn’t get much help in Wednesday’s loss to the Lakers, but LA is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency, so I wasn’t surprised about that. 

So look for BOTH teams to improve upon their respective shooting efforts from Wednesday night. All three regular season meetings between these teams did stay Under, but none featured less than 214 total points and Memphis shot poorly in two of the games. Sunday, they were 43.5% overall and 6 of 25 (24%) from 3-point range. They’ll easily best those numbers here. Memphis actually averages more PPG on the road (116.6) than at home (109.8) and Golden State averages far more at home (116.4) than on the road (110.7). So expect it to be a pretty-high scoring game Friday night. 10* Over Grizzlies/Warriors

10* Indiana (8:05 ET): Four games into the NBA’s new “Play In Tournament,” the home team has yet to lose. However, despite the way the regular season series went down, I believe Indiana has a great shot at changing that here against Washington. Yes, the Wizards won all three regular season meetings and had a strong close to their regular season. But Indiana has now covered five straight games and obviously looked far more impressive Tuesday night. Take the points in this one. 

The Wizards are 15-6 their L21 games, but picked a poor time to play their worst game in over a month. They lost by 18 in Boston Tuesday, a game which could have gotten them into the playoffs as the 7-seed. Now they get a second try and can be the 8-seed, but despite the strong finish to the regular season, I have my concerns. This is the worst defensive team in the entire NBA, at least in terms of points allowed per game. They also have a negative net efficiency rating as they are outscored by 1.6 points per 100 possessions. Based on that, I’m not sure they should be the favorites tonight, even with the home court advantage. 

Indiana has a positive net efficiency rating and obviously looked great on Tuesday, shooting 55.2% from the field on their way to an easy 144-117 beatdown of Charlotte. While they did lose every regular season matchup with the Wizards, the Pacers still ended up averaging 132.3 points in the three games. Now the flip side of that is they obviously played terrible defense. But I have no doubt that they will score a ton of points tonight. Two of the three regular season losses were close, one of them went to OT. Indiana actually has a better record on the road (21-15 SU) than at home. 10* Indiana

8* LA Lakers (10:05 ET): Given that the Lakers are still listed as the odds on favorite to win the Western Conference, it seems highly unlikely that they would fail to make it out of the NBA’s first ever “play-in tournament.” Then again, it’s pretty remarkable that the defending NBA Champs are even involved in this. But injuries to both LeBron James and Anthony Davis really derailed this team’s regular season and they fell all the way to 7th in the Western Conference. All things considered, it’s really an incredible matchup we have here with the reigning champs taking on the former three-time champion Warriors. 

Golden State, as was expected, improved dramatically from LY’s disastrous 15-win campaign. Steph Curry (injured most of last season) being back was responsible for most of that improvement as the former MVP led the league in scoring at 32 points per game. But let’s be clear that this is not the “same old Warriors team” of a few seasons ago. Believe it or not, they were only favored in 31 of their 72 regular season games. So they actually “overachieved” in getting to 39-33 SU. They were pretty good at home (25-11 SU, 23-13 ATS), but the road was a different story as their record was 14-22 SU and ATS. 

Bettors seemed to think that this spread opened too high, but I now see a pretty substantial discount on the Lakers here. If anything, Golden State figures to be a pretty public dog Wednesday night. It’s rare that the public isn’t siding with LeBron, but it’s the case here. Not only are James and Davis back, but so too is Dennis Schroeder. The Lakers are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and I view this as the ultimate “buy low” spot. Kelly Oubre Jr is out for Golden State. The Lakers won the season series 2-1 with the wins coming by 31 and 26 points. The one loss saw them ahead by 14 going into the 4Q. 8* LA Lakers

10* Memphis (7:35 ET): San Antonio is NOT a team I see winning in this play-in tournament. There was a five-game gap between them and 9th place Grizzlies, which is larger than the gap between 7th and 10th in the Eastern Conference. I thought the Spurs were a weaker team than New Orleans, who didn’t even make the play-in tourney. Greg Popovich’s team did not have a good close to the regular season, losing the last four games as well as 10 of the last 12. Five of those were double digit defeats, three of them by 22+ points. 

Memphis lost the regular season finale, 113-101 at Golden State, denying them an opportunity to take on the Lakers for the right to be the 7-seed. Though beating the Lakers was probably unlikely, it still would have been an easier path to the playoffs for the Grizzlies as they’d have two chances. Now they must win here just to earn the right to face the Lakers/Warriors loser for the 8-seed.

While the road team took all three regular season matchups between San Antonio & Memphis, the Grizzlies will be glad to get this one at home where they’ve won four in a row. They’d won five straight overall before the loss to Golden State. They are simply better at both ends of the floor than the Spurs, who have posted B2B losing season for the first time since the mid-1980s. Following a DD loss, the Grizzlies have gone 15-5 ATS this season (it was 113-101 at Golden State). The Spurs have lost 14 of 17 to teams with a better than .500 record and have let four of their last five opponents shoot 50% or better from the field. Memphis has let only four of its last 19 shoot that well. 10* Memphis

10* Over Wizards/Celtics (9:05 ET): The winner of this play-in game automatically becomes the 7-seed in the Eastern Conference. Certainly, recent form has been quite different for the Wizards and Celtics. Washington stormed its way into the playoffs by winning 15 of its last 20 games and the five losses were all by four points or less, three of them by exactly one point. Meanwhile, Boston lost Jaylen Brown for the season and limped to the finish with losses in five of their last six games. On the whole, the Celtics definitely had a better regular season. But there’s no denying the Wiz are the “hotter” team entering this game.

What I anticipate Tuesday night is a high-scoring game. Washington plays at the fastest tempo in the entire league and despite the late season surge, they still allow the most points per game (118.5) in the league. You’d have to go back to April 10th to find the last time they didn’t score at least 115 themselves in a game. They’ve also allowed 120+ in seven of their last nine games. Before going Under in the final three regular season games, the Wizards had gone Over six straight times. Boston is also on a three-game Under streak, but was 8-1 Over the previous nine games. 

 All three regular season meetings between these teams did stay Under, which is surprising to me. Looking back, the Under is 5-0 the L5 meetings, even more surprising. But tonight should snap that streak as I anticipate both teams to shoot better than they did in any of those aforementioned matchups. Neither team has shot 50% or better in any of those L5 meetings with the three-point shooting generally being not good. That’s uncharacteristic for both sides. The Over is 6-0 in the L6 Boston home games. 10* Over Wizards/Celtics

10* Charlotte (1:05 ET): Both of these teams will be in the Play-In Tournament, which begins Tuesday. It’s just a matter of which seed they end up with and who they’ll face. It could end up with them facing one another again. This game will go a long way in determining the East’s 8-10 seeds. Both Charlotte and Washington are 33-38 SU entering the final day of the regular season. So is Indiana, who plays Toronto Sunday. The winner of this game is guaranteed the 8-seed, which is huge as it means that the team would only need to beat Boston (easier said than done) to get into “the normal playoffs.” 

The loser of this game finishes either 9th or 10th in the East, depending on what happens in that Pacers-Raptors games. That means whoever loses here would not only have to beat the Pacers (possibly on the road), but then also the loser of the Celtics vs. #8 seed game, just to get into the playoffs. Got all that? The bottom line is that this is one of the more important games on Sunday’s slate. Charlotte is 2-0 SU/ATS vs. Washington this season (both wins by double digits), but has been fading badly down the stretch. Yesterday’s overtime loss to the Knicks was the Hornets’ fourth straight. 

Meanwhile, the Wizards have been surging with a 14-5 SU record the L19 games including a 15-point victory over Cleveland on Friday. All five losses since April 12th have been by four points or less. But I think this team has been playing “over its head” and it’s difficult to look past the fact they allow the most PPG in the league. They may also not have leading scorer Bradley Beal today. Charlotte got back Miles Bridges yesterday and he scored 30 in his return from quarantine. I think this is too many points. 10* Charlotte

10* Under Heat/Bucks (8:05 ET): When Miami beat Philadelphia 104-96 Thursday night, it snapped a 10-game Over streak. Considering that the Heat are only 25th in the league in scoring, it sure was strange to see them go on such a run of Overs. But of course the totals for the vast majority of those games were fairly low. Facing Milwaukee Saturday night, the Heat will see their highest O/U line in well over three months. With the exception of two games vs. Brooklyn in January, this will likely close as the highest O/U for any Miami game all season. 

Now a high total here shouldn’t be that surprising as Milwaukee is the league’s highest scoring team. But even for them, the amount of scoring in recent games has gotten a bit “out of hand.” The Bucks’ last five contests have averaged more than 260 PPG! There’s a bit of a “course correction” that’s due to take place here and with Giannis Antetokounmpo likely to see reduced minutes Saturday (he played only 35 minutes Thursday), this seems like the “right time” for it. The Bucks shot 57.4% against the defensively challenged Pacers in the last game. That won’t be repeated tonight against a Heat team that just held the #1 team in the East below triple digits. 

Even with the game vs. the Sixers on Thursday staying well Under the total, Miami’s last five contests have averaged WAY more points than is per usual for them. They’ve shot nearly 53% from the floor the L5 games, so they are also bound to “cool off” at the offensive end. These are two of the top 10 teams in the league in defensive efficiency and the Heat play at a bottom five tempo. 10* Under Heat/Bucks

10* Under Magic/Hawks (7:35 ET): Atlanta is now guaranteed a top six finish in the East after outlasting Washington in each of the last two games. A top six finish is nice as it allows the Hawks to avoid the play-in tournament. But they want to be 4th and have home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs. While this has been an interesting season (to say the least), Atlanta is 23-11 SU on its home floor where it’s won nine in a row. So getting the home court advantage would be a big deal to them. The final two games (both at home) vs. Orlando and then Houston look to be pretty easy. 

Orlando is absolutely NOT going to the playoffs as they’ve been near the bottom of the Eastern Conference most of the season. They actually own the worst point differential in the East as they are getting outscored by 8.8 points per game this year. Coming into tonight, they’ve lost four in a row - all by double digits - and are now 21-48 SU this season. The Magic’s big problem is they just can’t score. They average only 104.1 PPG, second fewest in the league, and in those four straight DD losses they’ve never shot better than 41.8% from the field. Three of the four games have seen them score 102 pts or less. 

After coming back from a 13-point 4Q deficit last night, Atlanta may be a bit drained on the offensive end. The L5 games have seen them average 125.8 PPG, which is well above their season average. Keep in mind they just got done facing the league’s worst scoring defense (Wizards) B2B times. The Under is 8-3 in division games for Atlanta as they give up only 105.1 PPG and score only 109.4. It was 112-96 the last time these teams played and the total was much lower. 10* Under Magic/Hawks

8* San Antonio (7:35 ET): Last night, the Spurs failed to clinch the final spot in the Western Conference’s “play-in tournament” as they lost 128-116 at Brooklyn. It was a game they never led and trailed by double digits most of the way. With their two final regular season games both coming against high-flying Phoenix, San Antonio could badly use a win here so that they don’t have to worry about beating the Suns. I know that it’s the second game of a back to back, but their opponents are returning home after a long West Coast swing, so there’s no situational advantage in terms of scheduling. Take the points. 

The Knicks are the league’s biggest surprise this season as they have clinched a top six spot in the East and could finish as high as fourth. To the point they’ve been surprising, no team in the league has a better ATS record than New York’s 44-23-2. They are covering games at a near historic pace, but I think the oddsmakers are eventually going to “catch up with them.” This is a team that has been an underdog in two-thirds of its games including each of the last five. After a series of high-profile non-conference clashes vs. the likes of the Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets and Suns, this could be letdown territory for the favorite. 

The Knicks-Lakers game on Monday saw 22 lead changes and went to OT. The Knicks lost 101-99 as they shot below 40% overall. Over the L4 games, the Knicks have not broken 106 points. San Antonio is just two games removed from a shocking 146-125 win over Milwaukee and while they lost at Brooklyn last night, the Spurs are a better team on the road with a 19-16 SU record. The Knicks could be playing short-handed tonight as four players are listed as questionable on the injury report. 8* San Antonio

10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): Here’s a stat for you: five of Washington’s last six games have been decided by two points or less! Four of them have been decided by one point! They are 2-2 SU in the four one-point games, including a 125-124 loss here in Atlanta on Monday. I thought the Wizards were a bit lucky to make a game of it, though I may be biased considering I laid the points with the Hawks, who had a 17-point lead going into the fourth quarter. The Wiz didn’t have Bradley Beal in the lineup Monday and he’s out again tonight. Missing the NBA’s second leading scorer is significant and I don’t see the road team being so “lucky” this time. 

By going 15-5 SU in its last 20 games, Washington is likely going to make the playoffs. But only three teams in the entire Eastern Conference have a worse YTD point differential and those are Detroit, Cleveland and Orlando. Defensively, the Wizards are very bad as they are giving up an average of 132.4 points the last five games. Granted, two of the games went to OT, but there’s been just one time in the L6 games that they did NOT give up at least 124 in regulation. They are dead last in the entire NBA in points allowed per game. 

I can’t see Washington shooting better than 50% overall - and from three-point range - again like they did Monday. Not with Beal out of the lineup. This opens the door for the Hawks to win their ninth in a row at home. Before beating Washington Monday, the previous six home wins had all been by at least seven points. The Hawks fell victim to a 45-point 4Q on Monday, something I certainly don’t see repeating itself here. Look for the home team to win big. 10* Atlanta 

10* Over Nets/Bulls (8:05 ET): Last time out, the Nets snapped a season-worst four game losing streak with a come from behind effort in Denver. They won 125-119 as 3.5-point chalk and were my 10* Game of the Week. In the analysis for that pick, I talked about how strange it was to see Brooklyn not only on a four-game SU losing streak, but also a 4-game Under run. Well, both of those streaks are over now as they look to solidify their status as a top two team in the East and possibly catch Philadelphia for home court advantage. 

Chicago’s last seven games have been a bit strange in that the losing team has been held below 100 points in every game. The Bulls were the losers in the first four of those seven games, but have since turned it around with a three-game win streak as they hope to keep their fleeting playoff hopes alive. They trail 10th place Washington by 2.5 games for the last spot in the “play-in” tournament with four games to go. The problem is the Bulls have yet to win more than three in a row this season. They are 0-3 SU/ATS when off three consecutive wins in 2020-21. 

I like this to turn into a really high-scoring game. Even without James Harden, we know what the Nets can do offensively. They are second in the league at 118.6 PPG. They shot a blistering 62.1% against Denver Saturday night. Chicago now has both leading scorer Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic back in the lineup and as a result the team scored 120+ in recent wins over Charlotte and Boston. They also shot 51.2% against Detroit Sunday. The Bulls are 7-0 Under the L7 games, but the opponent they are facing tonight is likely to end that streak. 10* Over Nets/Bulls

8* Under Heat/Celtics (7:35 ET): These teams just met Sunday here in Boston with the Heat emerging victorious in a wild 130-124 game. Miami jumped out to a huge 79-53 lead as they were shooting better than 65% from the field at that point. However, with a 40-point fourth quarter, the Celtics almost pulled off what would have been a second improbable comeback in the L10 days. (Remember they came back from 32 down to beat the Spurs 143-140 on April 30th. I don’t think this immediate rematch will turn out nearly as high scoring and thus Under is the call Tuesday night on TNT. 

The game Sunday saw great shooting from both sides. Miami finished the game at 57.3% overall, including 16 of 35 from behind the three-point line. Boston was at 54.2%. The teams also combined to go 40 of 47 from the FT line as the game went Over by more than 30 points. The Heat are now 9-0 Over their L9 games while the Celtics are 7-1 Over their last eight. But can this continue? The last five games have seen Miami score 121.8 PPG, which is well above their season average of 107.6. Same thing for Boston, who is averaging 123.4 PPG their last five contests as opposed to 112.9 for the year.

These teams faced off in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals and almost every game went Over. So I am definitely bucking not only recent history, but head to head history as well. However, this is likely to close as the highest O/U line for any Miami game in the last two months. It’s also much higher than any of the O/U lines from LY’s ECF. Boston doesn’t have Jaylen Brown anymore and Evan Fournier isn’t likely to continue his recent hot shooting. Sunday was the Heat’s second highest scoring game of the season. 8* Under Heat/Celtics

8* Portland (10:10 ET): It’s a lot of points to lay with Portland tonight, but they are taking on a very bad team that will be playing its third difficult road game in four nights. Houston is last in the NBA with a 16-52 SU record and has lost five in a row, Their last two losses came Friday in Milwaukee and Saturday in Utah. They actually covered both spreads, but with nothing left to play for - and the season winding down - you’ve got to wonder what (if anything) they’ve got left in the tank. Plus, Portland has played REALLY well of late, winning seven of eight. Six of those seven wins have been by double digits. 

These teams have met twice before this season and both games were close, decided by three points or less. Houston won one of them, but that was at home. It’s also important to note that both prior meetings occurred before “the bottom dropped out” in Houston after the James Harden trade. They were 8-9 after beating Portland on January 28th. They’ve only won eight of 51 games since. Bottom line though, the Blazers are going to take this one seriously. Especially since they are trying to clinch a top six spot in the Western Conference to avoid the “play-in” tournament. 

The Blazers are currently one game ahead of the Lakers for sixth. They have the tiebreaker over LA by virtue of winning the season series. Their last game was a 22-point win over San Antonio and they are now 8-2 ATS L10 games vs. losing teams. The Rockets have had only eight players available each of their L2 games, so it’s a minor miracle they were even able to cover. They could have 10 players available tonight, but the returnees would be Christian Wood and Kelly Olynyk, neither of whom are exactly “All-Stars.” Lay the points here. 8* Portland

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Washington seems to have played itself into the Eastern Conference’s play-in tournament, which will determine the final two seeds in the playoffs proper. Since April 7th, the Wizards are 15-4 with three of those losses coming by a total of five points. Two were by one point and the three-point loss came in OT. But it’s just as important to note the Wiz are still four games under .500, have been outscored on the season and on a per possession basis. Perhaps most important of all is that they won’t have the NBA’s 2nd leading scorer, Bradley Beal, in the lineup tonight vs. Atlanta. 

The Hawks are trying to chase down the #4 seed in the Eastern Conference, which would mean home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Right now, they trail the Knicks by one game in the race for that spot. Losing at Indiana on Thursday did not help, but the Hawks have had three days to recover from a game where they allowed the opponent to shoot 62.1 percent from the floor and score 133 points. The positive from that is Atlanta is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this season following a game where they surrendered 130+ points. The rest is also huge, especially facing a team that’s playing it’s fourth road game in six nights. 

While the Wizards’ last three losses have all been very close, what I failed to mention is that they are coming off B2B OT wins as well. Beal scored 50 in a 133-132 win against Indiana on Saturday. He will be sorely missed tonight. For Atlanta, De’Andre Hunter could return to the lineup tonight (gametime decision) as he practiced in full on Sunday. They did just lose at Indiana, but the Hawks have won seven straight at home and their last time here saw them destroy Phoenix by 32. Coming off extended rest, I believe they are well positioned to blow out their division rival tonight. 10* Atlanta

10* Detroit (8:05 ET): Chicago is off B2B blowout victories, but it’s probably a case of “too little, too late” as they still trail by three games in the race for the final play-in spot. You’ve got to wonder where the team would be had leading scorer Zach LaVine not missed so much time. LaVine is now back and so is Nikola Vucevic. The Bulls have to be happy that they just beat Charlotte and Boston (two teams ahead of them) by nearly identical scores. But laying this many points with them on the road would be a bad idea. 

In last place in the Eastern Conference, Detroit is in the second game of a back to back here. They lost at Philadelphia, 118-104, and a relatively high-scoring second half cost me my Under. Not happy about that, especially after the Pistons scored just 17 points in the first quarter. I do expect them to shoot the ball better tonight and remember what I talked about in yesterday’s analysis. Though they’re giving their young players most of the minutes right now, the Pistons are probably better than their record. They are definitely better than the two teams directly ahead of them in the standings, Cleveland and Orlando. 

Chicago is just 3-5 SU its last eight games and has been favored only once during that span. The number of times this season they’ve been favored by more than five points is THREE and they lost two of those games outright. All three games were at home. There is a chance this could be the most points the Bulls have had to lay in any game all season. So there’s some real value in fading them off rare B2B blowout victories. The Pistons are 17-9 ATS off a double digit loss. 10* Detroit

10* Brooklyn (10:05 ET): The Nets’ current four-game losing streak is a season-worst. Previous to this, they’d only lost three in a row one other time and that was back in early February. After that three-game losing streak, the team proceeded to win (and cover) its next eight games. But a 113-109 loss at Dallas Thursday night ensured there would be no repeat of that. The Nets have also now failed to cover four in a row. There’s only been one longer ATS losing skid this season and that occurred in the first seven games of the season. But I do see Brooklyn bouncing back tonight in Denver as the Nuggets find themselves in the second half of a challenging back to back. 

Last night, the Nuggets were in Utah and lost to the Jazz 127-120. Now in fourth place in the Western Conference, they have a very comfortable lead (five games) over fifth place Dallas, but last night’s loss leaves them one game back of the Clippers. I don’t see Denver catching the Clips. Not without PG Jamal Murray, whose season is done due to an ACL tear. While the Nuggets have actually fared quite well (so far) w/o Murray (10-3 SU), they’ve dropped two of three and the injuries have really started to pile up with Morris, Barton and Dozier all out. 

Brooklyn is missing James Harden and is just 10-9 SU without him. But they still have Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, the latter of whom scored 45 against the Mavs Thursday. There’s a greater sense of urgency for the Nets right now (compared to Denver) as they are now three games back of first place Philadelphia in the East and tied with Milwaukee for second. The Nets haven’t shot the ball all that well the L4 games, odd for a team that averages 118.5 PPG, while I don’t see Denver matching last night’s 51.8% shooting. The Nets won by six when these teams met in January to improve to 5-1 ATS L6 meetings. 10* Brooklyn

8* Under Pistons/76ers (7:05 ET): With five games left in their regular season, Philadelphia holds a three-game lead over both Milwaukee and Brooklyn in the chase for the Eastern Conference’s #1 seed. So it certainly looks like the road to the NBA Finals will go through the City of Brotherly Love. The team held on for a 109-107 win over short-handed New Orleans (no Zion) last night, thanks to Joel Embiid’s 37 points and 13 rebounds. While they did not cover the spread, it was the eighth straight win for Philly. 

Detroit is last in the Eastern Conference, some 26 games behind Philadelphia. I actually believe the Pistons are slightly better than their 20-47 SU record, or at least better than the two teams directly ahead of them: Cleveland and Orlando. However, down the stretch, it’s been pretty clear that the team is more interested in evaluating its young players as opposed to “winning now.” However they did shock Memphis on Thursday, 111-97 as nine-point underdogs, ending a four-game losing streak. 

Philadelphia is #2 in the league in defensive efficiency whereas Detroit is 26th in offensive efficiency, so you have to figure the Pistons won’t be scoring too many points this evening. All five of their starters were in double figures Thursday and they shot 53% overall as a team. A repeat of that is highly unlikely as two of the previous three games saw them fail to break 100 points. The Pistons are 19-8 Under coming off a non-conference game. The 76ers are on a 7-2 Under run vs. losing teams and have held five of their last seven opponents to 107 points or less. 8* Under Pistons/76ers

9* Orlando (8:05 ET): This is definitely more of a fade on Charlotte than any kind of endorsement of Orlando. The Hornets got blown out last night, here at home by Chicago, 120-99. A team I have been skeptical of for most of this season probably shouldn’t be laying this many points to anybody, let alone on the second night of a back to back. I suppose that theory will be put to the test tonight as the Magic are off a 36-point home loss to Boston the other night. Look for them to play a lot better here and take the points. 

Prior to getting blown out by Boston, the Magic had won two in a row. One of those was in Detroit and the other at home against Memphis. It’s been a long season for the Magic, who have the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference. But a division game where they are getting a lot of points, and off a blowout loss, is a good “buy low” spot. They’ve already split two games with Charlotte this season with the loss coming by only three points on the road. 

The Hornets continue to deal with injuries, even though LaMelo Ball and Malik Monk are back. Devonte Graham is questionable for tonight after also sitting last night and forward Miles Bridges is also out. Ball shot 1 for 10 against the Bulls, but the team was actually 16 of 35 from three and still lost by 21 at home (and scored less than 100 points). Charlotte is a below average team by the numbers. Reports out of Orlando is that the team had a good practice following the humiliating loss on Wednesday. I don’t see them getting blown out again. 9* Orlando

8* LA Clippers (10:05 ET): I have the Clippers rated #2 in my own power rankings (Utah is #1). But right now they are tied for third in the conference and could be looking at a first round playoff matchup with the Lakers. They probably want to avoid that, even though they are already 2-0 vs. the Lakers this season. Ironically, if they were to beat their rival again here it would increase the probability of that first round playoff matchup happening. But I don’t think the Clippers care about that right now. They’ve lost three of five and see a Lakers team that won’t have LeBron James tonight. I think the Clips win big. 

The Lakers won’t have James (rest) or Dennis Schroeder (quarantine), so that’s their two primary ball-handlers out. They did just win in Denver, but the Lakers have been struggling of late with only two wins in the last eight games. The win in Denver snapped a seven-game ATS losing skid. I just don’t like the way the Lakers are trending and it seems unlikely they will turn things around with James out of the lineup, although they did win Monday without him. But the Lakers have been bad as underdogs, going 4-15 straight up and 6-13 against the spread. 

The Clippers now have Kawhi Leonard back and while they are 0-2 ATS since his return, the lineup they’ll have on the court tonight is going to be much stronger than what the Lakers trot out. Patrick Beverley returned from injury on Tuesday. The last five games have seen the Clippers go 0-5 ATS and average only 104.4 PPG. I see them “breaking out” at the offensive end in this game. They beat the Lakers by 18 last month. Anthony Davis is back for the Purple & Gold, but James isn’t and Schroeder’s absence will be felt as well. 8* LA Clippers

8* Over Grizzlies/Pistons (8:05 ET): Another game I expect to go Over Thursday night features two teams facing very different realities at the present time. Memphis, who won a wild 139-135 game last night in Minnesota, is trying to lock down a spot in the play-in round. Currently 8th in the West, things seem secure, though the lead over 11th place New Orleans is still only 3.5 games. Detroit is dead last in the Eastern Conference and has lost four in a row. They’ve got nothing to play for the rest of the way, although escaping the basement would be nice. Recent starting lineups show that the focus seems to be the future, and not the present, though. 

Memphis shot 53.6 percent against the Timberwolves last night and made 14 threes. At the same time, their defense was not very good as they allowed Minnesota to make 19 threes and shoot 52.1% overall. It was the third straight Grizzlies’ game to go Over the total and only five of their games in the L30 days have stayed Under. Last night was the eighth time this season they scored 130 or more and also the eighth time they allowed 130+. They gave up a 40-point quarter last night, but also had one of their own. Ja Morant had 37 points and 10 assists. 

Detroit seems to be tanking, although they did stay within the number vs. Charlotte on Tuesday. That was a low-scoring game (103-99 final) where they and the Hornets combined to make 17 of 63 three-point attempts. The Pistons have been holding out some of their regular starters in order to give some “youngsters” a try and the results aren’t always pretty. The three rookies combined to shoot 4 of 23 from the field on Tuesday. We should see improvement tonight. 8* Over Grizzlies/Pistons

8* Over Nets/Mavericks (7:35 ET): Brooklyn has lost three in a row for only the second time all year. The other three-game slide occurred back in early February and the team would go on to win (and cover) each of its next eight games. HC Steve Nash has to be hoping for something similar now that it’s crunch time in the regular season and the Nets no longer hold the tiebreaker against the Bucks after two close losses in Milwaukee this week. James Harden has missed 17 of the last 18 games and the team is just 10-8 SU in that stretch. But the Nets still have Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. They are only two games back of first place Philadelphia. Honestly, no one should be panicking in Brooklyn right now.

With wins in seven of their last nine games, the Mavs aren’t panicking either. But they still find themselves locked in their own tight three-way battle. It’s not for the top spot in the conference like Brooklyn’s is, but rather to avoid the play-in round. Right now, Dallas is tied for fifth with the Lakers, but they are only one-half game up on Portland. One of those three teams is going to be relegated to a play-in situation. The Mavs have been openly hostile to the notion of the play-in round and I do expect them to avoid it. What’s interesting about their 7-2 SU run is that both losses came to Sacramento. 

It’s not quite as rare as losing three in a row, but Brooklyn is also 3-0 Under its last three games. It’s only the third time this year they’ve gone Under in three or more consecutive games. Tuesday’s 124-118 loss to the Bucks BARELY stayed Under (total was 242.5). The number here is lower and they are facing a team that’s scored 125 or more in three of its last five games. The Mavs may not match the near 53% shooting from their last game, a 127-113 win over Miami, but they won’t have to as I expect the Nets to be pretty prolific tonight. 8* Over Nets/Mavericks

10* Sacramento (8:05 ET): The Kings won their third straight game last night, squeaking by the Thunder (in OKC) 103-99. I had the Under there, which was an easy win (cashed by 27 points!), as I loved the fact that both teams were playing without their respective leading scorers. The loss of De’Aaron Fox hasn’t seemed to bother Sacramento all that much however, as the team has not only won (and covered) three straight, but also five of its last seven. I’ll take the points Wednesday as Indiana is even more banged up than the Kings.

The Pacers have scored an incredible 293 points their last two games. That’s the good news. While they turned in the biggest road win in NBA history (at OKC) on Saturday (152-95), they turned around and gave up 154 (no OT!) to the Wizards on Monday. They allowed the Wizards to shoot 61.2% from the field, an alarming number which included only nine made three-pointers for the Wiz. Indiana has not been good ATS at home all year, owning an 8-22 record. There are rumors that HC Nate Bjorkgren’s future here may be in some trouble as he’s had trouble “gelling” with players & staff. 

Sacramento isn’t likely to make the playoffs, but this three-game win streak shows they aren’t going down without a fight. Beating the Thunder isn’t anything special, but the two previous wins were against the Lakers (w/ LeBron) and Dallas. Indiana will likely be in the “play-in” tournament in the Eastern Conference, but is also four games below .500 and the record-setting thrashing of the Thunder is their only win in the L4 games. With seven players listed as questionable or out, the Pacers shouldn’t be laying this many points. 10* Sacramento

8* Cleveland (7:35 ET): My condolences to anyone who may have bet the Cavs last night. A double digit home dog, they took Phoenix into overtime but did NOT get the cover as they were outscored 20-4 in the extra five minute period. That’s tough. But I’ll use that result to my advantage tonight as the Cavs are again catching double digits at home, but facing a weaker opponent. Having failed to cover any of their last seven games, Cleveland is “due” to get the cash sooner rather than later. So take the points here. 

Portland comes into C-town off a 123-114 loss at Atlanta. This is the final game of a six-game trip out East for the Blazers and while they won the first four, the schedule is bound to catch up with them. This is their third road game in four nights, always a tough situation. While the Blazers do have a 20-13 SU road record this season, they are outscoring teams by just 1.2 points per game. So they should feel fortunate to have that record. Quite frankly, I’ve been skeptical of this team finishing in the top six in the West for some time now. 

The Blazers are just one game back of Dallas and the Lakers for sixth. They could end up finishing as high as fifth, but I don’t see that happening. This team is very bad defensively as they give up the second highest number of points per possession in the league (only Sacramento is worse). Though Portland wasn’t nearly as healthy the first time these teams met, it’s notable they were only -3.5 at home. This is the most points they’ve been asked to lay on the road all season and it’s only the third time they’re set to go off as a DD favorite, period. 8* Cleveland

8* LA Clippers (10:05 ET): Toronto will look to make it an “LA double” tonight as they face the Clippers on TNT. Sunday saw the Raptors pull off an upset of the Lakers (as 10.5-point dogs). The 121-114 win was much needed as not only did it snap a three-game losing streak, but it also kept the team’s fleeting playoff hopes alive. While I do think the Raptors are better than their overall record shows, it’s hard to look past an 11-22 SU record on the road this season. Kawhi Leonard is back for the Clippers and now it’s their turn to snap a three-game losing streak. Lay the points. 

Leonard made his official return on Saturday, playing 30 minutes in the Clips’ 110-104 loss to Denver. That loss dropped the team into fourth place in the Western Conference, even though they own the league’s second best net efficiency rating (trailing only Utah). I expect a big finish to the regular season from them, starting here, as the current three-game slide matches their longest of the season. The only previous time they were on a three-game losing streak, they responded by destroying Golden State 130-104. 

The Clippers have not shot the ball recently and have failed to score 110 points in any of the last four games. Look for that to change here as this is the #2 team in the league in offensive efficiency and they still are averaging 116.7 PPG at home. Toronto is playing its fourth road game in six days, not to mention third in the last four, and the previous opponents were Denver, Utah and the Lakers. So this is the end of a treacherous gauntlet and I can see them being out of gas. 8* LA Clippers

10* Under Kings/Thunder (8:05 ET): Two of the league’s bottom five teams meet tonight in OKC with nothing on the line other than pride. Sacramento is going to miss the playoffs for a 15th consecutive season (longest active streak in the NBA), although they do come into Tuesday having won four of six including the first two games of this four-game road trip. Oklahoma City has fallen into the abyss with just one win since the start of April and recently suffered the worst home defeat in NBA history. They are at the bottom of my power ratings. 

These teams have not met at all this season, but will play three times in the next eight days. If only the Kings were closer to playoff contention, this would be a great opportunity for them to end that long playoff drought. Give them credit for upsetting both the Lakers (w/ LeBron) and Mavericks though. Surprisingly, it was defense that was largely responsible for those upsets as they held those teams to 106 and 99 points respectively. I cashed the Under when they beat the Lakers.

A big reason why I’m taking the Under here is both teams are without their leading scorers. De’Aaron Fox continues to be in quarantine for Sacramento and making matters worse is that PG Tyrese Haliburton is now out as well after suffering a leg injury in the Dallas game. So don’t look for the Kings to match their 55% shooting from the last game. OKC losing 20 of its last 22 games coincides with the loss of their leading scorer, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and they were already last in the league in offensive efficiency. The Thunder have failed to reach 100 points in three of the last six games. 10* Under Kings/Thunder

8* San Antonio (10:05 ET): Admittedly, this looks like a challenging spot for the Spurs. They lost for the third straight time yesterday and it was the second straight loss in overtime. They’ve played three OT games in the last seven days. Now they must turn around and head to Salt Lake City where the league-leading Jazz await. But Utah has been much shakier of late, at least at the betting window where they’re 1-4 ATS L5 and 3-8 ATS L11. I’ll take the points as this is a critical game for San Antonio. 

Friday saw the Spurs blow all of a 32-point lead and lose to Boston 143-140 in overtime. Jayson Tatum scored 60 for the Celtics in that one. Yesterday, San Antonio actually rallied from a 10-point 4Q deficit to force OT. But it was still the same painful end result as they went down 113-111. On the bright side, the team is now 5-1 ATS in its L6 games. But they’ve lost three in a row SU (all by 5 points or less) and their lead over New Orleans for the final playoff spot is down to 2.5 games. It’s imperative that they turn things around.

The fact they took the Sixers to OT yesterday was actually impressive when you consider the Spurs were down four starters. Two of them - DeMar DeRozan and Jakob Poeltl - rested and should be back tonight. This will be the first of two straight games in Salt Lake City (next one is Wednesday). Over the last five games, Utah has just one win by more than four points. They’ve actually lost three of the five outright, including two to Minnesota. So the Jazz aren’t immune to being upset. The Spurs are 21-9 ATS on the road this year. 8* San Antonio

10* Detroit (7:05 ET): You may remember the last time I went with the Pistons. It was April 19th and they actually closed as a dog, here at home, vs. Cleveland. They would go on to win that game 109-105 after jumping out to an early 32-9 lead. Despite the fact the Pistons were the last place team in the East and starting several young players, I was adamant that they were a better team than Cleveland. Three weeks later, they’re still in last and still going with a youth movement. But I feel even stronger about the Pistons being a better team than Orlando, who they’ll host Monday. You’ll want to lay the short number in this one. 

By most objective measures, it’s pretty obvious that the Pistons are better than the Magic. They’ve got a better per game point differential (-4.0) compared to Orlando (-8.3). Not only are the Magic last in the East in PD, they are also last in net efficiency rating. I’ve got them from second from the bottom overall in my own personal power ratings, ahead of only Oklahoma City. Detroit, despite having the worst record in the Eastern Conference, is actually ahead of six teams in the power ratings. Orlando does have the better won-loss record, but only by a game and that discrepancy can be rectified tonight. 

You may also recall that I just faded the Pistons on Friday when they lost to Charlotte 107-94. But that was a road game. At home, Detroit isn’t bad defensively as they allow just 107.7 PPG, which is much less than they give up on the road. Orlando is off a win here, just their third since April 1st, so now it’s an appropriate time to fade them. They scored just 75 points in their last road game and have lost 13 of 16 overall. The Pistons are 17-8 ATS off a double digit loss this season. 10* Detroit

8* Under Raptors/Lakers (10:05 ET): LeBron James returned Friday, but that was not enough to turn the tide for the slumping Lakers as they lost to the Kings 110-106. That was LA’s fifth loss in six games and they are 0-6 ATS in that stretch. Remember that Anthony Davis is now back as well. The team has fallen into sixth place in the Western Conference standings and is only one game ahead of Portland. Wouldn’t it be something if the defending NBA Champions were relegated to the “play-in” round? 

The Raptors, who were NBA Champions two years ago, are simply just trying to get into the play-in round. Suffering their third straight defeat last night (106-102 at Utah) certainly didn’t help the cause as Toronto is now three games back of where they need to be to get into the postseason. This has been a very trying season for the league’s only Canadian franchise as they are 10-22 SU on the road and have played no “true” home games. Injuries have played a big part in the decline as well. That said, I actually think they’ve been better than their record as they have a positive scoring differential/net efficiency rating. 

LeBron is questionable for tonight, so that’s something to keep an eye on. The last time the last two NBA Champions met was about a month ago and James didn’t play in that game either. A horrendous shooting night (39.6% overall, 5 of 33 from 3pt range) cost the Raptors in a 110-101 loss. That game actually went Over (a really low total), but you’ll notice the number is a lot higher for the rematch. I think there’s value going Under here, which I did when the Lakers lost to the Kings on Friday. As mentioned in that writeup, the one good thing for LA is that they are still #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. 8* Under Raptors/Lakers

10* New York (8:05 ET): Houston actually had a 55-49 halftime advantage last night against Golden State. But things then turned - rather dramatically - in the third quarter as the Steph Curry Warriors went on a 24-0 run and outscored the Rockets 39-12 over the 12 minute period. It ended up being a 113-87 final and now Houston must play the second half of a back to back against the surprising Knicks, who lead the NBA in points per game allowed and are an incredible 13-1 ATS their last 14 games. It’s a big number to lay on the road, but I think the Knicks are going to cover it. 

I don’t think anybody - myself included - envisioned the Knicks finishing fourth in the Eastern Conference this season. But that’s where they are and most of the metrics say this team is a legit #4 in the conference right now. As I already mentioned, they are giving up the fewest number of points in the entire NBA. Last time they took the floor, they held Chicago to just 94 points as it was commanding fourth quarter performance, leading to the Knicks’ 10th SU win in their L11 games. That win over the Bulls took place on Wednesday, meaning the Knicks have had three days off. That’s a tremendous edge to have against an opponent playing in the second night of a back to back. 

ICYMI, the Rockets scored only 87 points on 36.0% shooting last night. So they figure to struggle against Tom Thibodeau’s stingy defense. Houston is a team that has won just five games since Feb 5! They are a miserable 8-24 ATS this season coming off a double digit loss, not to mention 8-26 ATS in all home games. The Knicks have been outstanding when favored this year, going 17-5 SU/16-6 ATS. Yeah, this is a big number, especially for them. But the situation very much calls for it. The Knicks won the first meeting by 22 and the Rockets are a skeleton crew, playing out the string. 10* New York

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Though I don’t think the Hornets are as good as their record indicates and the Pistons are probably better than theirs, the former is involved in a playoff race and the latter is last in the Eastern Conference. So when it comes down to motivation Saturday night in the Queen City, there should be no question which team is more motivated. Charlotte has also had Detroit’s number the L3 seasons, winning all nine matchups straight up (7-2 ATS) including 105-102 here back on March 11th. 

You may recall that I faded the Hornets their last time out, which was at Boston. That turned out to be the correct call as they lost 120-111 as 6.5-point dogs and are now 3-7 SU L10 games. Injuries (Gordon Hayward, Malik Monk, LaMelo Ball) have played a major role in the downturn, but they are still 8th in the East at 30-32 overall. Despite falling behind by 20 at the end of the first quarter and shooting just 42.5% for the game, the Hornets were still able to make it a competitive game in Boston. 

They should find things a lot easier tonight at home against Detroit, who is playing a lot of rookies right now. The Pistons are 3-8 SU their L11 games and lost 115-105 to Dallas Thursday despite shooting 50.7%. Virtually all of the Pistons’ wins in April came against teams that are out of playoff contention. They are a putrid 7-27 SU on the road this season and averaging only 104.4 points the L5 games overall. This is a critical stretch for Charlotte and I think they’ll start May with a big win. 10* Charlotte

8* Under Kings/Lakers (10:35 ET): So playing the Kings Under the total in their last game turned out to be a horrendous mistake. They allowed the Jazz to shoot 64 percent from the floor and score 154 points, the franchise’s worst loss since 1991. Obviously, there’s going to be defensive improvement from them tonight against the Lakers. But will it be enough to allow this game to go Under the total? I think so as LA continues to struggle offensively without LeBron James. They are averaging just 104.2 points in the L5 games and Anthony Davis has been back for the last four. He’s averaged only 16.3 PPG on 39.1% shooting. 

Sacramento still doesn’t have its leading scorer, De’Aaron Fox, who is out due to COVID-19 protocol. The Kings have been held to 113 points or less in three straight games without Fox in the lineup. While the defense was being shredded Wednesday night, at the offensive end they were held to their fewest number of points in a game in almost three weeks. The Under is 10-4 in the Kings’ last 14 road games and 11-4 when they are off a SU loss. 

The Under is also 8-2 the last 10 times the Lakers have hosted the Kings. I know Sacramento is one of the worst defensive teams in the league, but I just don’t see the Lakers taking advantage tonight as they have shot below 44% from the field in three of the last five games. The one positive with James out is that the Lakers remain #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. 8* Under Kings/Lakers

10* Over Magic/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): It was a rude welcome home for Memphis on Wednesday. The Grizzlies fell 130-109 to Portland in their first game back at the FedEx Forum following a 4-3 road trip. Shooting just 42% for the second consecutive game was NOT what the doctor ordered, especially on the heels of the prior six games, five of which saw the Grizz score 120 or more points. They are now 3.5 games back of Dallas for sixth place in the West and tied with the Spurs for eighth. A win here is desperately needed. 

When in need of a win, playing Orlando always seems to be a favorable matchup. The Magic have run out tricks this season as they are second from the bottom in the Eastern Conference and have the second worst point differential in all of the league. They did win, 109-104 at Cleveland on Wednesday. But the Cavs are not a good team and it doesn’t seem reasonable to expect the Magic to hold another opponent to 40.2% shooting like they did to Cleveland. The previous three games saw Orlando allow each of its opponents to shoot 54% or better and six of the last nine opponents have been above 50%. 

So I think we can definitely count on Memphis scoring a lot of points tonight. The question then is can Orlando do the same? Seeing as how the Grizzlies have allowed 120 points in B2B games as well as four of their last six, I’ll answer that question in the affirmative. The Magic are 8-1 Over their last nine games, including 4-0 the last four. Since March 22nd, only seven Grizzlies’ games have stayed Under and only one of them had a total lower than 225. 10* Over Magic/Grizzlies

10* Oklahoma City (9:05 ET): The Thunder snapped a 14-game losing streak by beating Boston 119-115 on Tuesday. They were 11-point road underdogs for that contest, which they led most of the way and put to bed with a 41-point fourth quarter. Now the team can pick up its first win at home this month as they host the Pelicans tonight. They’re obviously not favored to do so, but at least the Thunder now have some confidence, which is more than I can say for New Orleans, whose playoff chances seem to be fading rapidly. 

The Pelicans have now lost six of eight after falling in Denver last night, 114-112. They did cover the spread, but that’s merely a pyrrhic victory for a team that finds itself four games off the playoff pace in the Western Conference. Really, New Orleans should not have covered last night, let alone been in position to tie the game. They were down nine points with 52.8 seconds remaining when Denver (who is without starting PG Jamal Murray) started turning the ball over. 

New Orleans has only one win by more than seven points this month and that was at home. The team’s last road win by more than seven points came all the way back on February 16th! This is somewhat unprecedented territory for them to be laying so many points away from home and the Pelicans’ ATS record as a favorite this season is only 11-21. The only other time in 2020-21 they’ve been in the second of B2B road games, they lost by 28 points. Not saying OKC wins here, but they’ll keep it close. 10* Oklahoma City

8* Under Jazz/Kings (10:05 ET): These teams played earlier this month and didn’t have much trouble going Over the total in what ended up being a 128-112 Utah win. You’ll notice the total is several points LOWER for this rematch and that’s because the Jazz simply aren’t the same team right now as they were in that first meeting. PG Donovan Mitchell is out and the team is coming off B2B losses to lowly Minnesota, one at home and one on the road. The last four Jazz games have all stayed Under the total. 

Sacramento’s April began with a long losing streak as they basically played their way out of playoff contention. Things have stabilized a bit over the past six games as they’ve gone 3-3 SU and 5-1 ATS. Still, it feels like “too little, too late” for a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in over a decade and is 5.5 games out currently. The Kings are off a 113-106 win over Dallas on Tuesday, one of the better defensive efforts in some time. It was actually their fewest points allowed in a game since March 27 vs. Cleveland. 

I don’t think the Kings will match Monday’s 51.9% shooting. Not with De’Aaron Fox still sidelined. Fox is the team’s leading scorer at 25.2 points per game. Now, will Utah shoot better than it did against Minnesota on Monday? Probably. They did miss 41 three-point attempts in that game! But they will also still miss Mitchell, who led the way with 42 points in the first meeting with the Kings. The Jazz were also 30 of 35 from the FT line in that game, something that isn’t likely to happen again tonight. 8* Under Jazz/Kings

10* Boston (7:35 ET): The Celtics are not only looking to avenge Sunday’s loss in Charlotte here, but also bounce back from a very embarrassing defeat last night where they fell, at home, to Oklahoma City. The Thunder came into Tuesday on a 14-game losing streak, so the Celtics ought to be pretty perturbed over that result. I know that both Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker were out, but that’s a game Boston HAS to win in the midst of a playoff race. HC Brad Stevens is hopeful that Tatum and Robert Williams III will be back in the lineup tonight as the team seeks to end a three-game losing streak. Regardless if either returns, I look for the Celtics to snap that losing streak and exact some revenge in the process. 

Charlotte, who beat Boston 125-104 on Sunday, also played last night and lost. They went down at home to Milwaukee 114-104 as 9-point underdogs. It was a 17-point deficit at halftime. While things got closer in the 4Q, the Hornets simply didn’t have enough firepower to get over the hump. Remember that they are playing without Gordon Hayward, Malik Monk and LaMelo Ball. I have been shocked that this “skeleton crew” has remained in playoff contention, although they are now a game below .500 and only one game ahead of ninth place Indiana in the East. 

I know things went poorly on Sunday, but given that the Celtics were 8-point favorites in Charlotte, it looks like we’re getting a major “discount” with the line here. The Hornets are 0-4 SU and ATS their last four visits to Boston. The Celtics have been struggling offensively the last several games, including shooting 11 of 49 from three-point range last night. You’ve got to think that percentage is set to improve here. At the same time, the Hornets aren’t going to shoot as well here compared to what we saw Sunday when they hit 50% overall, including 21 of 43 from 3-pt range. Charlotte has massively overachieved this year and I’m not a believer. 10* Boston

10* Portland (7:05 ET): Portland has lost five in a row, three of them as favorites, while Indiana is on a three-game win streak. Yet it’s the Blazers who are favored here, on the road. How can that be? Well, Indiana is without multiple starters and the fact their three wins came against Oklahoma City, Detroit and Orlando (maybe the three worst teams in the league?) has to be accounted for. Portland’s last four losses have been to the Clippers, Denver and Memphis twice with three of them coming by a total of four points. I look for the Blazers to get back on track tonight with a big-time win. 

Full disclosure, I’ve openly predicted that Portland would fall out of the top six in the Western Conference and that is precisely what has happened. I can’t say I’m a big fan of a team that is 29th in defensive efficiency, but remember the Blazers were 29-18 at the start of this month. You’ve got to think Damian Lillard is going to turn things around after shooting just 34.7% his L3 games. Again, most of the Blazers’ recent losses have come in close games. Four times this month they’ve been beaten by 1 or 2 points. 

While Portland’s best player (Lillard) is set to improve, I can’t possibly see Indiana matching its 54.9% shooting from the Orlando game on Sunday. Nor are they going to hold the Blazers to 39.6% like they did to the Magic. The three-game win streak for the Pacers has come against teams that are a combined 57-127 SU this season and two of the teams they beat are currently on losing streaks of 6+ games. Indiana won’t have Domantas Sabonis for this game and we know Myles Turner is out as well. The Pacers are just 11-17 SU at home this season and 8-20 ATS. They are 0-2 SU/ATS off three straight wins. 10* Portland

8* Cleveland (7:35 ET): The Cavs lost a tough one last night as they blew an eight-point fourth quarter lead in Washington and fell 119-110. It was a game they shot 51.3% from the field, despite not having leading scorer Collin Sexton. As an added “kick in the teeth,” they ended up not even covering the 7.5-point spread. While Sexton remains questionable for tonight (concussion) and it’s the second night of a back to back, the number looks generous here for a Cleveland team that probably feels “it should have” won on Sunday. Toronto, while better than its record, probably shouldn’t be laying this many points to anybody. 

Remember (that because of COVID-19) there’s no home court advantage for the Raptors this season. All “home games” have been played in Florida and this displacement has led to a 15-15 SU “home” record. Ironically, they’ve been significantly worse in "true" road games (10-20 SU), but the bottom line is that all this travel has put the team at a severe disadvantage this season. The Raptors do have a better YTD point differential than all of the teams they are chasing for a spot in the “play-in” round, but they’ve lost outright the last three times they’ve been favored by 6.5 or more points. One of those losses was to this Cleveland team.  

They also lost on Saturday, 120-103 at New York. In that one, the Raptors allowed 56% shooting, including 51.3% from three-point range. So there’s definitely hope for Cleveland here. Toronto is just 4-8 straight up and 3-9 against the spread following a double digit loss. In addition to losing to the Cavs last month, they've also been beaten by the Thunder and Rockets in the L30 days. Not saying the Cavs will win outright, but you definitely want to take the points here. 8* Cleveland

10* San Antonio (7:05 ET): The Wizards extended their win streak to eight games with a 119-110 victory over Cleveland last night. But even though they were facing a weak opponent, it was by no means “an easy win.” The Cavs led much of the game and shot 51.3% from the floor despite not having their leading scorer Collin Sexton. Washington was down eight early in the fourth quarter when Bradley Beal (NBA’s 2nd leading scorer) took over. Obviously, “a win’s a win,” but it should be pointed out that even with an eight-game win streak, the Wizards are only 10th in the Eastern Conference and still six games below .500 on the year.

San Antonio is also fighting for its playoff life right now. Like the Wizards, they currently occupy the last remaining slot in the “play-in round” for their conference. Winning four of five has definitely helped their cause as did Golden State losing last night. It was a key win on Sunday when the Spurs won in New Orleans, 110-108 as three-point underdogs. So they too are a “hot team” right now. The win over the Pelicans also improved them to 17-10 SU and 19-8 ATS on the road this season. They've won their last three on the road, one of those coming at Phoenix. 

Washington is at a disadvantage here being in the second night of a back to back. While he’s apparently fine, Beal did have a scary moment last night when he limped off the court in the final minute. The team was concerned that it might have been an Achilles injury, but that is not the case. Still, it's something worth monitoring. While the Wizards have been very successful the last two weeks, most of the wins have come against bad teams and they remain pretty horrible at the defensive end (28th in PPG allowed). I think the win streak ends here as San Antonio beat them handily (121-101) back in January. 10* San Antonio

10* Under Grizzlies/Blazers (4:05 ET): Going back to last season’s “bubble,” the Grizzlies and Blazers have met three times and all three have gone Over the total. This season’s first meeting just took place on Friday and the teams combined for 258 points (130-128 Memphis win) after combining for 248 and 275 (OT) in LY’s bubble. But with a quick turnaround breeding a sense of familiarity here, I look for a much lower-scoring game on Sunday and will take the Under. A lot is on the line here. 

Portland has lost its grip on sixth place in the West, which is critical because the way things stand now, they’d have to deal with the “play-in” scenario. I fully expected the Mavs to pass them and now the question is will the Grizzlies do the same? Friday’s win pulled the Grizz within 1.5 games of the Blazers and they’ve got the better YTD point differential and net efficiency rating, indicative that a passing may take place. While Portland’s last three losses have been a total of four points, they’ve also taken a high number of blowouts this season.

These teams definitely appear to be trending in different directions as the Blazers have lost four in a row overall and the Grizzlies are 16-4 ATS their L20 games. But winning twice in three days at Portland will be hard. Memphis shot 53% Friday, shooting I don’t think they’ll be able to match here. Nor do I think Portland is going to shoot 40% from 3-point range again. The Blazers are 4-1 Under this season after allowing 130+ points the previous game. Memphis leads the NBA in 2-point field goals attempted AND made per game, so they’re not a 3-pt shooting team. Don’t expect them to match Friday’s 29 fast break points either. 10* Under Grizzlies/Blazers

10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): I can’t overstate what an important game this is for the Pelicans as they come in trailing the Spurs by 3.5 games for the final spot in the “play-in” tournament. Coming off a 35-point in Orlando (which snapped a four-game losing streak), New Orleans definitely has some confidence entering Saturday. A win tonight would at least give them the tiebreaker over the Spurs as they’d take the season series. The previous two meetings saw each team win by three at home. 

The Pelicans led by as many as 42 points Thursday night en route to their largest margin of victory this season. Now you can’t play the Magic every night, but San Antonio is a slightly below average team in my eyes. Despite resting several players, the Spurs did win themselves on Thursday (106-91), but that was against a Detroit team that has an even worse record than Orlando. Leading scorer DeMar DeRozan is still listed as questionable for this one and a short-handed Spurs lineup isn’t likely to be as successful tonight. 

I view these teams as close to even, so the 3.5 game gap in the standings is misleading. New Orleans is at home, so they deserve to be favored and I’ve got no hesitation laying the short number. They’ll have the best player on the floor (Zion Williamson). San Antonio is just 1-7 ATS off its last eight double digit wins. We saw them lose by 20 at home to Miami the last time in this situation. The Spurs’ record is actually better on the road than at home, but I’m unsold. 10* New Orleans

10* Over Wizards/Thunder (8:05 ET): Washington has gotten hot at the right time as they’ve won six in a row to move into 10th place in the Eastern Conference. If they can hold onto that spot (or move up further), then they are in the play-in round for the playoffs. It’s the second longest active win streak in the NBA right now (Knicks) and what’s been curious is that it’s been somewhat fueled by the team’s play at the defensive end of the floor. The Wizards have given up only 109.4 PPG over the L5 games.

All five of those games stayed Under and we had the Under in the last one, a 118-114 win over Golden State. Now obviously a final score such as that is going to go Over most totals. But I saw a really high number there and took advantage. What’s interesting is that three of the five straight Unders would have gone Over tonight’s total as the Wiz are in OKC to face Russell Westbrook’s former team, the struggling Thunder, who have lost 12 in a row and are at the bottom of my own personal power rankings. 

Washington has averaged 120.5 PPG during its win streak and I see no reason why they shouldn’t again be hovering around that number tonight. They are probably likely to eclipse it as the Thunder have allowed an average of 122.0 PPG their last five contests. These teams just met Monday in D.C. with the Wizards winning 119-107. The rematch should be higher scoring based on the fact that OKC was just 23 of 50 on two-point attempts in that game and I’m not a believer in Washington sustaining its recent defensive “surge.” They are still giving up 118.0 PPG for the season, which is third most in the league. 10* Over Wizards/Thunder

8* Dallas (9:35 ET): The Mavs just missed out on covering the 10.5-point spread last night as they downed Detroit 127-117. It was a game they largely controlled in the second half - as they should have considering where the Pistons are in the standings. Dallas will gladly take the SU win, but it’s still six straight ATS losses for a team that had lost four in a row at home going into last night, including two to losing teams. I will point out that they led the Pistons by as many as 17 in the fourth quarter. The number is a LOT shorter tonight and I will lay it as the Mavs look to win two in a row.

The big story for this game is that Anthony Davis is expected to return for the Lakers. Davis says he’s now “100% healthy,” but how effective can he be after missing 30 games? The Lakers went 14-16 SU in his absence and now trail the Nuggets by 2.5 games for fourth place. Remember there’s still no LeBron James. The team hasn’t played since Monday when they lost 111-97 to Utah. While they’ve been alternating wins and losses all month long, I just don’t like their chances here as they are only 3-8 ATS in their L11 games as an underdog. 

I truly believe Dallas will pass Portland for sixth place in the Western Conference. Remember how important that is as sixth place allows you to avoid the play-in round. Finishing sixth or better is a stated goal for this team, which has been vocal in its displeasure over the “play-in round.” The six straight ATS losses matches a season-high, previously set in late January. A win here would tie the Mavs with Portland for sixth place. A SU win almost certainly will equal an ATS win and I think we’re getting a real discount due to the Davis news (I don’t think he’ll be that effective). 8* Dallas

10* Boston (7:05 ET): Phoenix continues to show they deserve to be mentioned among the league’s elite as they’ve begun the most difficult road trip of the season (five games out East) with wins over Milwaukee and Philadelphia. But playing for the third time in four nights at Boston, this is hardly what I’d call a “good spot” for them. It was the narrowest of escapes last night in Philly as the Suns won 116-113 when Joel Embiid’s last second desperation heave went “in and out.” The Celtics are dealing with injuries, but are rested and have won 8 of 10. Take the points here.

Boston’s six-game win streak came to a bit of a shocking end Monday as they fell here at home to Chicago, 102-96 as 4.5-point chalk. The team had also previously covered four in a row. Two 18 point quarters doomed the Celtics and they were outscored by 14 in the third. But this team is still a solid 18-11 SU at home and could really use the win here as they are locked into a tight three-way battle for fourth place with the Knicks and Hawks. Not finishing sixth is imperative as it would allow the Celts to avoid the three Eastern Conference heavyweights in the first round of the playoffs. 

Both Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart missed Monday’s loss. They are expected back in the Boston lineup tonight. The team is less optimistic about Jaylen Brown (doubtful) while Jayson Tatum has said he WILL play. Regardless, this is a really good value on a team that isn’t a home dog very often. Phoenix was only a three-point favorite when they hosted the Celtics back in February. They could be excused for an “off-night” here considering the situation and they’ve got another back to back upcoming with the Nets/Knicks. Winning all these games isn’t going to happen. 10* Boston

8* Sacramento (10:05 ET): Here we go again, fading the T’wolves off a win. It’s been about the surest bet in the NBA this season. Since starting 2-0, Minnesota has not won back to back games at any point. They are 0-14 SU off a win since that 2-0 start, going 2-11-1 ATS as well. They are being outscored by about 15 PPG in this situation. The last time they were off a win was Sunday and I faded them in Los Angeles (against the Clippers) in what turned out to be a 124-105 loss. They won last night here in Sacramento, 134-120 as 3.5-point underdogs, so there’s only one way to play this matchup from where I sit.

Given all the information listed above, it would be quite embarrassing for the Kings at home B2B days and for a third time this month to the T’wolves. Certainly, little has gone right for Sacramento over the last month as they’ve lost 10 of 11 to play themselves right out of the playoff race. But I can’t see Minnesota shooting 56.7% from the field again (like they did last night). The Kings actually led going into the fourth quarter, which is when everything began to fall apart. They scored just 17 points over the final 12 minutes and were on the wrong end of a 17-3 run down the stretch. 

When the T’wolves are off a SU win as a dog, they are 0-12 SU the next game and 2-10 ATS. In the second night of a back to back, they are getting outscored by 9.2 PPG this season. They entered yday tied with Houston for the worst SU record in the league. The Kings are surely better than how they’ve played of late and will be desperate to win at home for the first time this month. Given the situation at hand, I’ll make the RARE move to lay points with them. 8* Sacramento

10* Under Warriors/Wizards (7:05 ET): The two top scorers in the NBA will be on the same floor tonight as Steph Curry and the Warriors take on Bradley Beal and the Wizards. Curry has been absolutely on fire of late and was the talk of social media Monday night with a 49-point effort against the Sixers. He made 10 three-pointers as it was his 11th straight game with 30+ points and he’s averaged 43.8 PPG on the team’s current road trip. But still, as a team Golden State finished with only 107 points Monday night. You have to figure Curry won’t be going off like THAT again here, even if the Wizards are far from the league’s finest defensive outfit.

Washington comes into tonight on a five-game win streak (also 7-1 L8) as they too are trying to qualify for the postseason. They are in the midst of a “friendly” stretch of home games that has seen them recently defeat New Orleans, Detroit and Oklahoma City. The Wizards’ last four games have all stayed Under as their defense has improved at the right time. They’ve held those last four opponents to 115 pts or less, which may not sound all that impressive, but it is for this team. 

This total is really high. It’s almost identical to the O/U line from the last meeting, which was earlier this month, and saw Washington win 110-107 as a 4.5-point underdog. Curry hadn’t really “caught fire” yet, but still went for 32. The Wizards had four players score at least 19 in that win. I just don’t see the kind of scoring the oddsmakers are expecting to take place here. Only two of Golden State’s last 13 games would have gone Over this number while only three of the Wizards’ last 12 would have done the same. 10* Under Warriors/Wizards

10* Orlando (7:35 ET): The Magic are obviously a team in complete disarray right now, but this is a massive number for the Hawks to be laying at the betting window. Even though they’ve won 8 of 10, Atlanta still has only two wins by more than 12 points this month and both were against New Orleans. This is a more familiar opponent, one that has won and covered six of the previous nine meetings. When these teams played last month in Orlando, it was only a three-point win for the Hawks. They did cover as 2.5-point chalk, but the line has obviously grown significantly larger for tonight’s rematch.

Orlando has just one win in its last nine games (115-106 at Chicago on 4/14) and now is the “proud owner” of the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference. Perhaps “rock bottom” occurred on Sunday night when they lost at home to a Rockets team that has won only four games since Feb 4. While I do not expect the Magic to win tonight’s game, I do expect them to keep it close. It was really just one bad quarter that killed them Sunday and they still only ended up losing by four. The Magic are 5-2 ATS L7 as road dogs. 

Atlanta has been asked to lay double digits only one other time all season and that came all the way back on December 28th against the Pistons. They won that game, but only by eight points. Subsequently, there have been only a handful of times where they’ve had to lay seven or more points. Twice they lost outright. That they blew all of a 20-point lead against Indiana Sunday night is a concern, even though they still wound up winning that game by 12. The Hawks have a bigger game tomorrow night at New York to worry about. Take the points. 10* Orlando

10* Detroit (7:05 ET): The Pistons couldn’t be further from the success of the legendary “Bad Boys” of the late 1980’s or even the teams from 15-17 years ago. They have basically spent the entire year in last place in the Eastern Conference. Their current record is 17-40 SU and they’ve dropped four of five following a 21-point setback (121-100) in D.C. on Saturday. But I just can’t understand why they’d be getting points, at home, from a Cleveland team who has a far more negative point differential. Yes, the Cavs have a better SU record. But this is just the third time they will be a road favorite in 2020-21. 

I know the Pistons are currently fielding a VERY young lineup. A majority of the veterans are dealing with injuries, so they will be resting tonight. It’s not like the team was doing that well with those players on the floor, so I don’t really view this as a negative. While the Pistons were blown out by a surging Wizards team over the weekend, this is basically the same starting lineup that beat Oklahoma City here at home on Friday. While the Thunder are 30th (last) in my personal power rankings, the Cavs are 29th. So this is a very winnable game for a Detroit team that’s already 16-5 ATS this season when off a double digit loss.

This is also a big revenge game for the Pistons. They are 0-2 vs. the Cavs in 2020-21 (and 0-9 SU in all division games!). The day after X-Mas saw the Pistons blow a late lead and lose in double overtime. Then it was a rare hot shooting night for Cleveland (at home) in the second meeting. The Cavs have a per game point differential of -7.3 (Detroit just -3.8, which is actually better than three teams in the East, including the Wizards). I just faded the Cavs as a short road dog against a Chicago team that had dropped five in a row and that turned out to be an easy win. Cleveland has also lost four of five and should NOT be favored in this one. 10* Detroit

10* LA Clippers (10:05 ET): The Clippers are off a rare loss (106-103 at Philadelphia) while Minnesota is off an even rarer win (119-111 over Miami). Typically, this is a tremendous spot to bet against the T’wolves. Not only have they failed to win B2B games since a 2-0 start to the season, they are 2-10-1 ATS off their previous 13 SU victories. When off a win this season, the T’wolves are being outscored by 12.6 points per game. The last time, they lost by 30 at Brooklyn. They are a league-worst 5-23 SU on the road and the last two away games have seen them surrender 141 and 145 points. 

The Clippers had won seven in a row before losing in Philly Friday night. Playing without Kawhi Leonard for the fourth straight time, they fell behind early (trailed by 11 after one quarter) and had no answer for Joel Embiid, who had 36 points and 14 rebounds. But they still made a game of it. Leonard is questionable for tonight, but Paul George has been the best player in the Western Conference over the last week and the opponent is as weak as it gets here. The last time the Clips hosted Minnesota, they won by 23. They are 22-8 SU at home this season and also beat the T’wolves by seven on the road in February. 

Minnesota was a seven-point dog in Friday’s upset win over Miami. When off a SU win as a dog, they are 0-11 SU/2-9 ATS the next time out. Not only did they recently lose to the Nets by 30, they also lost by 25 to the Bucks. I bring those results up because those are top tier teams like the Clippers. The T’wolves are allowing 122.1 PPG when off a SU win and here they are facing the league’s most efficient offense. After a SU loss, LA is 14-4 SU/12-6 ATS with a point differential of +9.9 PPG. 10* LA Clippers

10* Chicago (8:05 ET): When the Bulls traded for Nikola Vucevic last month, it was supposed to lead to a charge up the Eastern Conference standings. Instead, the team is now 3-9 SU since that trade and on a five-game losing streak (also 0-5 ATS) following last night’s defeat at the hands of Memphis. Obviously, leading scorer Zach LaVine being in COVID protocol doesn’t help. But recent losses to the likes of Orlando and Minnesota are downright inexcusable when in the stretch run. As ugly as things have gotten here in the Windy City, I just can’t see the Bulls losing at home tonight to lowly Cleveland. 

The Cavaliers are actually just two games back of the Bulls, which should be a major wake-up call for the home team tonight. The Cavs are very much a bottom five team in the league, despite their “closeness” to the Bulls in the standings right now. I make that statement based on their YTD point differential and net efficiency rating. Cleveland is the worst offensive team in the NBA on a per game and per possession basis. If Chicago can’t win this one, they really ought to be ashamed of themselves.

The last time these teams met was last month and the Cavs did win here in Chicago, 103-94 as 7.5-point underdogs. But as you can see, we’re getting a MUCH shorter line with the home team in this one. The Bulls were just 28.6% from three-point range in that last meeting, a number I expect them to improve upon tonight. Cleveland has lost 8 of 11 since beating the Bulls, so they’re in no better shape. I can’t see the Bulls’ defense being as bad as it was in the 2H last night. This is a classic “buy low” spot. 10* Chicago

10* Under Knicks/Mavericks (9:30 ET): The surprising Knicks have won four straight and are on an even longer ATS win streak of seven games. They are now in sixth place in the Eastern Conference, which is not something I saw coming at the start of the season. But their underlying metrics suggest there is nothing phony about this. Key to their success under HC Tom Thibodeau is the fact the Knicks are #1 in the NBA in points allowed as they are giving up only 104.3 per game. On average, their games are the lowest scoring in the entire league at 209.9 PPG. 

Dallas led the league in offensive efficiency a year ago, but not in 2020-21 as they are down to 10th in that category. On Wednesday night, the Mavs won a game that they badly needed. Luka Doncic capped a fourth quarter rally with a “lucky” last second shot to defeat Memphis 114-113. Unfortunately, that shot cost me a winning Under ticket. But all the Mavs care about is they are now within one game of Portland for sixth place in the Western Conference. I do believe they’ll pass the Blazers by season’s end and thus avoid the “play-in round” that they’ve been so critical of. 

While this is a low total, that shouldn’t be all that surprising with the Knicks involved. Also, Dallas has failed to score 100 points twice in its last five games. Over the past month, the most points allowed by the Knicks in regulation is 114. They’ve held eight opponents under 100 during that time and only four (out of 16) have been able to top 102. The Mavs’ scoring average decreases at home (down to 109.8 PPG) and the Under is 10-1 L11 home games. When these teams played two weeks ago, the final score was 99-86 (Dallas won). 10* Under Knicks/Mavericks

8* Indiana (3:05 ET): We’ve got a rare weekday afternoon game in Salt Lake City Friday as the Jazz host the Pacers. Utah still has the best overall record in the league (41-14 SU), however they’ve gone just 3-3 their last six games and were very short-handed in Tuesday’s 106-96 win over sorry Oklahoma City. Three players were out, and as a result the Jazz actually fell behind the Thunder by as many as 17 points. Only seven players ended up scoring, but that ended up being enough to get the win. As of this writing, it’s unclear how many of the three injured players (O’Neale, Ingles, Clarkson) will return tonight. 

Conversely, Indiana had a MUCH easier time in its last game. They led wire to wire in a 132-124 win at Houston. That was the fourth win in the last five games as the Pacers try to lock down a spot for the postseason (which begins next month). Currently 8th in the East, Indiana has shown more offense these L5 games, averaging 126.2 PPG. They typically have NOT performed well ATS when coming off a high-scoring effort, but it’s also rare to find them getting as many points as they are here.

While winning in Salt Lake City is tough, the Pacers do sport a 17-12 SU road record this season, which is pretty good. Also, the Jazz did just lose here at home, 125-121 to Washington on Monday night. That snapped a 24-game home win streak. They’ll likely still be short-handed here and the Pacers make for their toughest opponent in over a week. (The Jazz’s L3 games have been against Sacramento, Washington and OKC). The Pacers were able to keep it close (lost by 8) when the teams played last month. I think they do the same again here. 8* Indiana

10* Sacramento (10:05 ET): Obviously, this does not seem like the ideal spot for the Kings to end an ugly eight game losing skid. After all, they are in the second night of a back to back and facing a team that is second in the Western Conference. Last night saw them drop a home game to the Wizards, 123-111 as two-point underdogs. While I don’t think they can beat the Suns, I do think this is a generous number for a battle of division opponents. It’s more than the Kings were getting when they traveled to Utah last week.

Utah is the only team ahead of Phoenix right now in the Western Conference, though the red hot Clippers are hot on the Suns’ heels. Two nights ago I laid a much shorter number with the Suns here at home and they rolled to an impressive 106-86 win over Miami. But an odd trend has developed with Phoenix over the last three weeks; they’ve failed to cover B2B games even one time. They are 0-6 ATS off their previous six ATS wins and while they’ve suffered only one straight up defeat during that time (Clippers), this is a big number to cover. 

The last two times Phoenix has been off an ATS win and laying double digits, they were playing Houston. Both times they failed to cover as they won those games by only three and six points. After an ATS win, the Suns are only +4.8 PPG this season. So expect this one to be closer than the oddsmakers (and public) think as Sacramento is desperate for something resembling a competent performance and should turn one in here. 10* Sacramento

8* Under Mavericks/Grizzlies (9:35 ET): This is a pretty important game for these teams, both of which are looking to move up the Western Conference standings and avoid the play-in scenario for this year’s playoffs. Remember that a team has to finish 6th (or better) to avoid the play-in. I give both of these teams a good shot at moving past Portland (who currently occupies 6th place), Dallas moreso. But the Mavericks come into tonight as losers of two straight while Memphis is off a 101-90 win over Chicago. 

The Under is 7-1 in Dallas’ past eight games. They scored only 95 points in a home loss to Philadelphia on Monday where they shot only 42.2% from the field. They were just 9 of 36 from three-point range. This team’s offensive efficiency is way down compared to last season when they led the league in that department. Currently, they are 10th in offensive efficiency. On the bright side, they did defeat Memphis 102-92 in the season’s first meeting as they held the Grizzlies to 6 of 31 shooting from three-point range. 

Going back to last year, the Grizz have averaged just 94 points the L2 times they have faced the Mavs. Their defense had been poor in recent losses to the Knicks and Pacers, however one of those games (Knicks) did go to OT. The defense improved tremendously vs. Chicago Monday night as they allowed 41.9% shooting including 5 of 31 from three-point range. The Under is 33-11 in Memphis’ last 44 home games including 5-0 the L5 when they are the dog. 8* Under Mavericks/Grizzlies

10* Under Magic/Bulls (8:05 ET): Orlando has really sunk into the abyss as they’re on a six-game losing streak which has seen them get beat by double digits five times and by 20+ points three times. They have the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference. Obviously, there are major issues defensively as this six-game skid has seen them allow an average of 123.7 points per game. But for purposes of this play, be more focused on the fact that they’ve failed to crack 100 themselves three different times during the same stretch. That includes both of the last two games. 

Chicago is just trying to get into the playoffs. They currently occupy the last spot for the Play-In Tournament as they are in 10th place, 1.5 games ahead of a Toronto team that I happen to think is better than they are. Despite bolstering their rotation at the trade deadline, the Bulls have failed to “pick up the pace” and come into tonight’s game on a three-game losing streak. They’ve lost 9 of 12 overall. Now the majority of those losses have come on the road. This is the first of three straight winnable home games on the upcoming schedule, but the problem is they are only 10-16 SU at home this season. 

The Bulls are also coming off a loss in which they failed to score 100 points. They shot 5 of 31 from three-point range in a 101-90 setback at Memphis Monday night. While they figure to shoot better than that here, they only average 109.7 PPG at home. Of course, that might be enough as Orlando averages just 102.2 PPG on the road (29th in the league). These teams played earlier in the season and it was 118-92 in Orlando and that was with the Bulls (who won) shooting better than 50% (including 15 of 30 from 3-pt range). They won’t shoot that well here. 10* Under Magic/Bulls

10* Phoenix (10:05 ET): The Suns used a big 1st half, which included a NBA record 18 made three-pointers, to roll to a 126-120 victory last night over Houston. The good news is that the hot start enabled them to go on “cruise control” down the stretch, important since they were in the front end of this back to back. The bad news is for anyone who bet them as a 23-point halftime advantage wound up shrinking down to six by the final whistle as the Suns failed to cover as 12.5-point favorites. I’ll “swoop in” tonight though and take them laying a much shorter number. 

Since the start of March, Miami has been very hot and cold. They went on a five-game winning streak, then a six-game losing streak and are now 6-1 SU their L7 games. Sunday night, the Heat began what will be a four-game road trip with a 107-98 win in Portland. As is the case with Phoenix here, the Blazers were in the second night of a back to back. Miami actually built a 20-point lead early in the fourth quarter. But this is a much more challenging opponent set for Tuesday as the Suns are 30-8 their L38 games including 8-1 L9. 

Phoenix is 2nd in the Western Conference, just 1.5 games behind Utah, who lost last night. While the Heat have had the Suns’ number in the past (20-6 ATS L26 head to head meetings, 11-1 ATS L12 here in Phoenix), the last two matchups have gone Phoenix’s way. That includes a 110-100 win in Miami last month as two-point favorites. Though the Heat are in fifth place in the Eastern Conference, they still have a negative point differential on the season. The Suns don’t have to travel for this back to back (last night’s game was also at home) and they are 5-1 SU this season in the 2nd of B2B home games, winning by an average of 9.3 PPG. They are the much better side here. 10* Phoenix

8* LA Clippers (7:35 ET): If Kawhi Leonard was playing tonight, this line would obviously be higher. But even after factoring in Leonard’s absence and the Pacers’ home court “advantage,” the number looks a little low to me. The Clippers are a hot team right now as they’ve won five in a row by an average of nearly 14 points per game. Keeping up with the Jazz and Suns is imperative. Without Kawhi, they were able to defeat Detroit 131-124 on Sunday. As I’ll get into momentarily, Indiana’s home record is shockingly poor. 

While the Clippers are trying to inch closer to the top of the Western Conference, Indiana is just trying to remain relevant in the Eastern Conference. Right now, the Pacers are in 9th place and that’s with a three-game win streak coming into tonight. Those wins - which were against Minnesota, Orlando and Memphis - have them within two games of .500. The mediocre overall won-loss record is largely owed to the fact they are 9-15 SU (7-17 ATS) at home, one of the worst such records in the entire league this year. 

So there’s really no “home court advantage” for the Pacers here. Myles Turner is out for them and defensively there are issues with two of the last three opponents scoring at least 125. The Clippers are #1 in the league in offensive efficiency and while not having Leonard hurts a little, they still have Paul George, who went for 32 against the Pistons. When these teams met in January, the Clippers ran away with a 129-96 victory as seven different players finished in double figures. 8* LA Clippers

8* Under Nuggets/Warriors (10:05 ET): Thanks to a disastrous fourth quarter (in which they scored only EIGHT points), the Nuggets saw their eight-game win streak come to an end Sunday at the hands of the Boston Celtics. Denver actually led by eight going into the 4th, but then things completely fell apart as Boston scored 40 of the game’s final 48 points. The Nuggets finished with a 36.4 FG% including 8 of 34 from three-point range as they played for the fourth straight time w/o PG Jamal Murray (who is listed as questionable for tonight). 

We know Golden State is going to be short-handed coming into this game as they are without Kelly Oubre Jr and James Wiseman, their third and fourth leading scorers. This puts even more pressure on Steph Curry, who has scored 32+ in each of the L6 games, but the Warriors are just 3-3 SU in that stretch. The Dubs are only 21st in offensive efficiency, a far cry from their “heyday,” so if they are to “get it done” here, it’ll have to be via the defensive end (they are 8th in efficiency there). 

Two short-handed teams, one playing in the second night of a back to back, seems like a recipe for an Under to me. Denver’s offensive efficiency drops noticeably without Murray in the lineup. They won’t have a quarter as bad as the fourth yesterday, but the Under is 6-1 in the Nuggets’ last seven road games. Golden State has little offensive firepower beyond Curry and probably won’t match the 53.8% shooting we saw from them when they defeated the inept Rockets on Saturday. 8* Under Nuggets/Warriors

8* Over Heat/Trail Blazers (10:05 ET): Portland’s game last night (w/ Detroit), a 118-103 win, was the fourth Under for the team in its last five games. But the Blazers remain a very suspect team defensively (29th in number of points per possession allowed) and here they are matched up with a Miami team that’s gone Over in each of its last four games. Granted, not all of those Heat totals were very high. But neither in this one, especially if you look at it from Portland’s perspective. Number is too low. Go Over tonight. 

Miami has won five of six to move into the middle of the playoff pack in the Eastern Conference. Right now they are in 6th place, just one-half game behind Charlotte and Atlanta, who are tied for fourth. So this is an important game. When they hosted Portland last month, the Heat lost by a score of 125-122. That game saw them shoot 56% from the field and still LOSE. The teams combined to go 36 of 80 from three-point range, which they probably won’t do again. But remember we don’t need the game to be nearly that high-scoring to still cash this Over ticket. 

Portland is 6th in the Western Conference, but at 10 games above .500 they have a much better record than the Heat. Enes Kanter set a record with 30 rebounds in last night’s win, a nice “step up” performance with Jusuf Nurkic sidelined (Nurkic is expected to play tonight). But maybe the real key was holding the Pistons to 9 of 26 shooting from behind the arc, a percentage the Heat should easily eclipse tonight. With the Over 12-5 when Portland is in the second night of a back to back, this number just looks too low. 8* Over Heat/Trail Blazers

10* Under Pelicans/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): We’ve seen some uncharacteristic results from both of these teams lately. Cleveland, who is very bad, actually pulled off B2B wins earlier this week, beating both San Antonio and Oklahoma City on the road. Most shocking of all is how they did. The team that is dead last in the league in points per game (103.9) put up 125 and 129 in those two victories. Of course, they then proceeded to return to their losing ways last night, falling here at home to Toronto by a score of 135-115.

So it’s now four straight Overs for the Cavs, a sharp departure from what we’d seen from them the previous five games, all of which went Under. During that five-game stretch, they never topped 101 points and averaged only 90.8 PPG. As I stated earlier, this is the lowest scoring team in the league. So after beating their season average in points scored in three straight games, expect them to have an “off-shooting night” Sunday when they host the Pelicans, who held their previous opponent to only 94 points. 

That kind of defense was a bit of a radical departure for New Orleans. After all, they’d just given up 139 (to Brooklyn) the game before that. But by holding the 76ers to 94 in a much-needed win, the Pelicans are now “sniffing” the play-in spots for the Western Conference playoffs. They’ve topped 111 just once in the last five games though and my guess is they’ll keep the Cavs in check tonight. Look for this to be a relatively low-scoring game at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse. The Under is 11-5 this season for Cleveland when the total is 220 or higher. 10* Under Pelicans/Cavaliers

10* Golden State (10:05 ET): I didn’t have many positive things to say about the Warriors when I faded them yesterday. Sure enough, they ended up losing outright (here at home) to the Wizards 110-107 as 4.5-point chalk. So why would I turn around 24 hours later and lay an even bigger number with the Dubs? Well, look at who they’re hosting. Houston also played last night and was a double digit loser to the Clippers (126-109). That was the Rockets’ 28th loss in their last 31 games. They’ve covered the spread only seven times during that stretch. 

In yday’s analysis, I mentioned that GS isn’t favored all that often. But the result against the Wizards aside, the Warriors usually win when laying points. They were 13-5 SU in the chalk role going into Friday. Now they have lost 8 of the last 10 games overall as they are fighting just to hold on to a spot in the “play-in” round of the postseason. Their lead over the 11th place Pelicans has dwindled to a single game. If Steph Curry and company don’t get this ship righted, then they could be the “odd team out.” 

Just last month, the Warriors beat the Rockets by 14 in Houston. They closed as 11-point favorites for the game, so this spread looks like a bargain by comparison. The Rockets were outscored 41-10 in the second quarter last night, which tells you all you need to know about what they are going through. Meanwhile, the Warriors were winning their game with less than 10 seconds remaining. I may not have trusted the Dubs last night, but I do here. 10* Golden State

analysis soon

10* Over T’wolves/Celtics (7:35 ET): Boston has gone Under in each of its last seven games. However, a matchup with the team with the worst record in the NBA should result in them putting up a big number Friday. I believe it’s critical to note who the Celtics have faced recently. Their last game was against the Knicks, who have the league’s top scoring defense. Before that, it was the Sixers, who are #2 in defensive efficiency. So it’s not a surprise those games were low-scoring. This will be a much different story. 

Minnesota is off a 141-137 loss to Indiana, which is the exact opposite of “low-scoring.” It was not an overtime game either. Making matters more embarrassing for the T’wolves’ defensive effort is the fact the Pacers were short-handed, down FOUR starters including All-Star Domantas Sabonis. The Pacers’ bench scored 69 points in the game. They had 77 overall, a season-high, in the first half and opened up a 22-point lead. Maybe we shouldn’t be surprised seeing as the T’wolves allow the third most points per game in the league? 

The last three Celtics-T’wolves encounters have all gone Over. The most recent was over a year ago and Boston won 127-117. Though their last two games were both low-scoring efforts, the Celtics did score 118 and 116 when they faced Houston and Charlotte the two games prior. I expect them to be in that range, if not higher, tonight. Boston isn’t exactly great defensively either as they allow just over 110 PPG. The Over is 8-3 in Minnesota’s L11 road games. 10* Over T’wolves/Celtics

10* Portland (10:05 ET): A REAL tough spot for Utah here. They just lost in overtime to Phoenix last night, which was a significant result as it shrank the Jazz’s lead atop the Western Conference to 1.5 games. Yes, Utah still has the best record in the NBA and this is only the second time they’ve been off B2B losses since early January. But laying this many points to a sneaky Portland team, even at home, seems like a tough ask. I’m taking the points in this one. 

The Blazers are currently sixth in the West, 10 games over .500 despite a slightly negative point differential for the season. Normally, I’d be looking to fade a team with that kind of resume, but the situation is favorable here and they are getting a lot of points. While Portland has suffered an alarming number of blowout losses this season, such as the 17-point one they took at the hands of the Clippers Tuesday, they are 16-8 ATS off an ATS loss. They have not suffered B2B double digit losses at any point this season. 

Furthermore, Portland has dropped B2B games only one time since the beginning of March. I realize Utah has won 22 straight home games, but this is one they can lose. Given that mentality, why wouldn’t you take the points? 10* Portland

8* Under Lakers/Heat (7:35 ET): This rematch from last year’s NBA Finals certainly lacks the luster of the six-game series in October or even the meeting the teams had back in late February. That’s owed to the fact LeBron James is M.I.A. as is Anthony Davis for the Lakers. The defending champs are actually 4-5 SU since James got hurt, which isn’t bad, but they’ve fallen into fifth place in the Western Conference. Miami enters this game in sixth place in the Eastern Conference, but with a much worse straight up record than the Lakers (Heat are 26-25, Lakers 32-19) 

The Heat have actually given up more points than they have scored this season. Things had been trending in a positive direction though. At least before they lost to Memphis 124-112 as 6.5-point favorites Tuesday night. Before that loss, the Heat had won four straight games while allowing only 96.25 PPG. They let the Grizzlies shoot 54.8%, offsetting their own 53.7% shooting. I don’t think we’ll see those kinds of shooting percentages in tonight’s game. 

Yes, this total is quite low. But it ought to be given how the Lakers’ season has gone. Tuesday’s 110-101 win over Toronto was only the second LA game to go Over since LeBron got hurt. The Lakers are 33-17 Under in all games this season, including 17-2 when facing a team that has a winning record (note: Toronto has a losing record). The problem (for the Lakers) is the fact they have the second lowest offensive efficiency in the league without James. 8* Under Lakers/Heat

10* Charlotte (8:05 ET): I can’t say that I’m all that excited about the Hornets’ long-term prospects as they are dealing with multiple key injuries right now. Their YTD point differential and net efficiency rating (both negative) indicate that they’ve been a pretty clear overachiever to this point. But they are 5th in the Eastern Conference and you’ve got to give them credit for that. Tonight they are at Oklahoma City to face a Thunder team in even worse shape right now. I’ll lay the points! 

The Thunder have lost three in a row and it has been ugly. The three losses have all been by 24 points or more and they’re playing no defense with 132 or more points allowed in every game. They lost by 37 at Phoenix and 44 at Portland before losing by 24 at home to Detroit (who has the worst record in the Eastern Conference) on Monday. I had the Over in that game vs. the Pistons and OKC allowed Detroit to score a season-high 132 points. Like Charlotte, OKC is dealing with multiple absences from the rotation right now. 

Charlotte’s scoring average has come way down the L5 games as they are without LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward and Malik Monk. But the Thunder’s woeful defense should allow for some significant improvement at the offensive end tonight. Meanwhile, I just don’t see much in the way of improvement coming for OKC as they’ve not only dropped three straight, but six of seven and 8 of 11. The Hornets are 4-0 ATS L4 as road favorites and 20-5-1 ATS L26 road games against teams with a losing home record. OKC is 9-16 SU at home. 10* Charlotte

10* Under Pistons/Nuggets (9:05 ET): I had the Over in last night’s Pistons game, which was in Oklahoma City. They scored a shocking 132 points (new season-high), which was a sharp departure from their previous game when they lost by 44 at home to the Knicks. Now keep in mind that Oklahoma City is terrible. I don’t expect the Pistons to shoot 51.6% from the floor again when they face Denver tonight. In that loss to the Knicks, Detroit scored only 81 points (a season-low!).

The good news for the Pistons is that they’ve covered all three times they’ve been an underdog of at least 12.5 points this season. The bad news is they are 0-3 SU in those games. Denver is not a team you want to be facing right now as the Nuggets have won five in a row and moved past the depleted Lakers into fourth place in the Western Conference. During this five game win streak, the Nuggets have allowed an average of just 101.6 PPG. A head-scratching loss to Toronto, the Nuggets’ only defeat over the L7 games, is also the only time during that stretch they’ve surrendered more than 109 points to their opponents.

The fact that Denver plays at the second slowest pace in the league also helps our Under cause tonight. The Nuggets have shot better than 50% during the 5-game win streak, but that’s difficult to maintain. Detroit did hold OKC to 5 of 27 shooting from three-point range last night. 10* Under Pistons/Nuggets

8* Boston (7:35 ET): The 76ers have once again ceded the top spot in the Eastern Conference to the Nets. Brooklyn won last night while Philly lost by 16 at home to Memphis on Sunday. That was the fourth time they failed to cover in the last five games, a stretch where the only two SU wins have come against Cleveland and Minnesota - arguably the two worst teams in the entire NBA. Tonight the Sixers find themselves in Boston, facing a Celtics team that’s coming off B2B home victories. 

It was a very easy win for the Celtics on Sunday as they blew past injury-riddled Charlotte 116-86 as 9.5-point chalk. Six players, including the entire starting five, finished in double figures and the team made 21 three-pointers. It was also a solid effort at the defensive end, holding the Hornets to 40% overall, including 10 of 31 on 3PA. While only 7th in the East, Boston is only a game out of 4th place. You would assume they’re going to move up the standings before the playoffs begin. They cannot afford any kind of letdown. 

Adding to the motivation here is the fact this is a double revenge spot for the Celtics. They lost twice down in Philadelphia back in January. Each time they blew a halftime lead. Now the Sixers are without Joel Embiid (still) and he was the dominant presence on the court in those two January meetings. Philly actually trailed Memphis by 26 points heading into the fourth quarter Sunday (again, that was at home!) and they are not a particularly great road team (17-36-3 ATS L53). 8* Boston

10* Under Baylor/Gonzaga (9:20 ET): Baylor and Gonzaga were widely considered the two best teams in College Basketball all season long. So I’m glad we’ve got them matched up in Monday’s National Title Game. Unbeaten Gonzaga is the one who very nearly failed to “hold up their end of the bargain” as they needed overtime to defeat 11-seed UCLA in a game for the ages. Baylor had a much easier time Saturday as they blew out Houston 78-59, a game I’d rather not hear about again. 

Conventional wisdom seems to be that Baylor will be willing to play at Gonzaga’s preferred tempo. The Zags are 7th in the country in adjusted tempo and they lead the country in scoring at 91.6 PPG. However, they haven’t been able to hit that number in regulation in any of the L4 games. They shot 59.6% against Creighton and 58.7% against UCLA, percentages they won’t be able to match here against a longer and more athletic opponent. Baylor has held four of its five Tournament opponents to 63 points or less. That’s a very unrealistic number for this matchup, but they did hold Arkansas (who also likes to play fast) to 72 in the Elite Eight. 

This is a high total, even for Gonzaga, and certainly for a National Title Game. It should also be noted that Gonzaga held its first four Tournament opponents to 71 points or less. They are actually quite underrated defensively (8th in the country in efficiency). Baylor won’t shoot 52.7% from the field in this game like they did against Houston. This game may not stay Under by a lot, but I don’t see both teams scoring 80+ and that is likely what would be needed for an Over. 10* Under Baylor/Gonzaga

10* Over Pistons/Thunder (7:05 ET): Two teams coming off 40+ point losses on Saturday. OKC took its worst loss in franchise history (133-85) at the hands of Portland while Detroit suffered its worst loss in 27 years (125-81) and that was at home to the Knicks. There’s nothing positive I can say about either team right now and when it’s “bad vs. bad,” typically you don’t see a lot of defense being played. On the bright side, both teams are definitely going to score more points tonight than they did on Saturday. Take the Over.

The Thunder have lost five of six and their two losses to open April were by a combined 85 points. Not only did they just let Portland score 133, but Phoenix had just torched them for 140 (on 60.0% shooting) the night before. Three of the last four games have seen OKC surrender at least 127 points. While I can’t guarantee the defense will be THAT bad again tonight, I can say with virtual certainty that the Thunder should see a dramatic increase in their own scoring, compared to Saturday. They are averaging 107.1 PPG at home this season. 

Detroit has lost six of eight and remains in last place in the Eastern Conference. Losing by 44 at home is obviously inexcusable, but I will point out the Knicks do lead the league in scoring defense. OKC is at the opposite end of spectrum. The last three times the Pistons have been held below 100 points, they’ve come back to score 116, 111 and 118 in their next game. I see a similar number for them tonight. This number is lower than the average number of total points per game for both teams this season. 10* Over Pistons/Thunder

10* Under Lakers/Clippers (3:30 ET): We all know about the Lakers’ current plight. But playing without both LeBron James and Anthony Davis, things actually haven’t been THAT bad as the team’s record is 3-5 SU since the James ankle injury. They did win 114-94 in Sacramento Friday night. It’s actually the Clippers that come in off B2B losses (one to Orlando!) and in both games they were held below 100 points. I look for this Sunday matinee to be lower-scoring than expected and thus Under is the call here. 

The Clippers can be an absolutely maddening team. Before the B2B losses, both of which were here at home, they’d won six in a row. Defense hasn’t really been a problem for them. Over the L10 games they’ve held every opponent to 112 points or less, including 105 or less eight times. But the Clips shot 41% against both the Magic & Nuggets and that’s a big reason why they lost those two games. Rajon Rondo is set to debut this afternoon, but I don’t think that will be much of a boon offensively. 

The Clippers never led against Denver Thursday night, losing 101-94. They let the Nuggets shoot 52% from three-point range, something I don’t think will happen here with the Lakers. The Lakers haven’t shot better than 48% (overall) in any game since James got hurt. Six times they’ve been held below 44%. But, like the Clippers, their play at the defensive end has been admirable. The Lakers are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and even without James & Davis, they’ve held three of their last four opponents to 94 points or less. Eight of their last nine games have gone Under, including five straight. The Under is 16-2 this season when the Lakers face a team with a winning record. 10* Under Lakers/Clippers

10* Under Bucks/Kings (10:05 ET): Both teams are in the second night of a back to back, but that’s where the similarities end. Milwaukee was a 127-109 winner in Portland last night while Sacramento lost 115-94 here at home to the Lakers. For the Bucks, last night was their second straight win after suffering three straight losses. For the Kings, last night was a second straight loss after a five-game win streak. 

The Bucks have shot well each of the last two games. They were 53.2% from the field against the Lakers on Wednesday, then 54.4% against the Blazers last night. A third straight game with that high of a field goal percentage seems unlikely, even though they are facing the Kings, who are not good defensively. Giannis Antetokounmpo was 18 for 18 on two-point attempts last night and scored 47 points. No way he repeats that performance. I do think the Bucks can maintain their recent defensive efforts though. They held the Lakers to a 40.2 FG% and Portland to 36.4. 

Sacramento has shot 42.4% each of the L2 games. Their two best players - De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield - combined to go 1 for 13 from three-point range last night as the team was held under 100 points for just the second time this season. While you can argue a bit of an offensive bounce back is in order, this O/U line is really high and these teams are “due” for an Under after all of their 16 meetings have gone Over! The Bucks are 5-1 Under playing in the second night of a back to back as well.  10* Under Bucks/Kings

10* Houston (5:14 ET): The National Semifinal that will have more intrigue (regarding the outcome) is an all-Texas affair between Baylor (1-seed from the South Region) and Houston (2-seed from the Midwest Region). I had both teams getting here, so this matchup is not a surprise. Much will be made of the fact that Houston did not have to defeat a team seeded higher than 10th in any of the first four rounds. But it would be quite foolish to undersell this squad. They have won 11 consecutive games with seven of those victories coming by a margin of 16 points or more. This will be just the second time all season the Cougars are underdogs. The first was all the way back on 11/29 vs. Texas Tech and they won that game 64-53 as three-point pups. 

Houston’s calling card remains their defense. They are #2 in the country in points per game allowed (57.6). None of the other teams in the Final Four rank higher than 62nd in PPG allowed. The Cougars are also #1 in the country in field goal percentage defense. Opponents have shot just 37.3% against them this season. In the four tournament wins, they’ve allowed an average of only 55.75 PPG. There have been only two times during the 11-game win streak that they allowed more than 61 points. Both were against Memphis. Simply put, when you’re not giving up many points, more often than not you will win. In this case, Houston is GETTING points. 

The key here (for me) is that Houston is a perfect 10-0 SU/9-0-1 ATS coming off an ATS loss. They probably “should” have covered for us vs. Oregon State in the Elite 8 as they led 34-17 at halftime. But they let the lead shrink in the 2H, then allowed a “meaningless” three-pointer in the closing seconds to blow the cover. I told you to take the Cougars the last time they were off an ATS loss (this was in the Sweet 16 vs. Syracuse) and they won that game by 16 points. Coming off an ATS loss this year, UH has won all ten times by an average of 28.1 PPG! Absolutely take the points here. 10* Houston

8* Under Houston/Baylor (5:14 ET): We had the Over in Baylor’s 81-72 win over Arkansas in the Elite 8. That play cashed as it ended up being - rather easily - the Bears’ highest scoring game of the Tournament. That shouldn’t be a surprise, not because I had the Over, but rather due to the pace Arkansas plays at. The Razorbacks were a top 20 team nationally in adjusted tempo, a far cry from Baylor’s previous two opponents. Like the dispatched Wisconsin and Villanova, Houston plays at one of the slowest adjusted tempos in the country. Thus I’m pivoting to the Under for this Final Four matchup. 

It’s not just Houston’s tempo that has me on the Under here. The Cougars are #2 in the country in scoring defense (57.6 PPG allowed) and #1 in opposing FG% (37.3). The fact they’ve advanced despite not scoring more than 67 points in any of the L3 games should tell you all you need to know about their defense. In four Tournament games, the Cougars have allowed an average of only 55.75 PPG. The most points they’ve given up in any of the four games is 61. The Under is 3-0 the L3 games.

Baylor is 7-2 Over its L9 games, however they allowed just 55, 63 and 51 points in the three games prior to facing Arkansas. They scored 46 points in the 1H of the Arkansas game, which is a lot, and also shot 53.3% for the game from three-point range. Don’t see them matching those kinds of numbers on Saturday, even if they are #1 in the country from three-point range. Houston is allowing just 28.3% shooting from behind the arc this season. Baylor can take solace in the fact Houston shot just 32.3% against Oregon State. Three of the Bears’ four Tourney opponents have shot worse than 28% from distance. 8* Under Houston/Baylor

8* Portland (10:05 ET): The Blazers have overachieved a bit in getting to 11 games over .500. I say that based on the fact they’ve actually given up more points this season than they have scored. Typically, you won’t find a team with a negative YTD point differential sitting 11 games over .500. But there’s no denying the fact the Blazers are in better shape now than they’ve been at any point this season. Both CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic are back in the lineup and the team has won four in a row. 

Milwaukee has the best point differential and net efficiency rating among Eastern Conference teams, but they are still only third in the standings. So you can make the case they’ve underachieved. They did snap a three-game losing streak Wednesday, but that win came against the depleted Lakers so it’s not like it could be called “impressive.” Prior to that, the Bucks were just 1-6 ATS their L7 games and what’s been concerning is some of their defensive efforts. They are allowing 114.8 PPG on the road this season. 

There are times when I’d look at how these teams have performed relative to their metrics and say it’s time for things to “balance out.” But this isn’t one of those times. Portland is coming off a 4-0 road trip (averaged 120.8 PPG) and is 7-2 SU its L9 games overall. Getting points with them at home looks to be a very nice value Friday night. The Bucks are just 2-7 ATS this year in games where the total is 230 or higher. The Blazers just turned in a 73-point second half in their most recent game, so take the points. 8* Portland

10* Memphis (8:05 ET): You probably don’t need me to tell you that Minnesota has been pretty dreadful this season. Stuck in last place in the Western Conference, the T’wolves’ only shot at escaping the basement is if Houston continues to tank. The T’wolves are off a win, 102-101 over the Knicks on Wednesday night, but that makes for an excellent time to fade as not only are they 1-10 SU this season off a win, but they are 3-7-1 ATS and been outscored by an average of 11.8 PPG in this situation. 

The one time that Minny won B2B games was when they started the season 2-0! Since then, it’s been 10 consecutive SU losses when off a win. Last time they were in this spot, they lost by 22 … to the Rockets (!) That was after beating the Rockets the previous night. Memphis is well-positioned to “step in” and do some damage here as they’ve covered six of their last seven contests. While only 4-3 SU in those same seven, all three losses were to the first place Jazz. Two of the three losses were by four points or less. 

The Grizzlies actually led the Jazz going into the 4Q here at home on Wednesday. They were obviously unable to hold that advantage, despite getting 36 (points) from Ja Morant, but it was still a solid effort. With them now favored, we need more than just a “solid effort” here, but considering how the team really needs the win to get back to .500 and move closer to the top eight in the West, I think we’ll get the Grizz at their best here. They easily defeated the T’wolves back in January, 118-107, and are 7-1 ATS against them the L3 seasons. Lay the points. 10* Memphis

10* Over Warriors/Heat (8:05 ET): Coming out of the All-Star Break, Miami was as hot as any team in the league. They won their final seven games in February and a dominating performance against Cleveland on March 16th (113-98) was their 12th win in 13 games. But then they went into a tailspin, losing six in a row and failing to cover the spread in all six games. It should be noted four of those six losses were by four points or less. They’ve seemingly now “righted the ship” by winning two straight, both in low-scoring fashion, including 92-87 last night at Indiana which was my 10* Game of the Week. 

Tonight the Heat return home to face Golden State. The Warriors thankfully have Steph Curry back in their lineup and he led the way with 32 points in Monday’s 116-102 win over Chicago. Curry had missed the team’s previous five games and they’d lost four in a row without him. The Dubs currently sit ninth in the Western Conference standings with a two-game gap between them and 8th place. Realistically, it’s looking like they can finish no higher than 7th. In the weaker East, Miami can finish as high as 4th, even though they have a very similar record (to Golden State). 

Miami has been held to 85 pts or less more than anybody this season and is coming off B2B sub-100 point games. But I believe they rediscover their offense tonight. Victor Oladipo is set to debut and that will help. Not once has the Heat had a three-game stretch where they failed to top 105 points this season. The Over is 39-18-1 the L58 home games vs. a team with a sub-.400 win percentage on the road. Golden State’s road record is 9-15 SU/ATS. The Warriors average 112.7 PPG for the season and when these teams met in late February, the final score was 120-112 (GS won). That was right before Miami went on to win 12 of its next 13. 10* Over Warriors/Heat

10* Miami (7:05 ET): The Heat ended a 6-game losing streak on Monday with a 98-88 win in New York. They go for two (wins) in a row tonight in Indiana. I think it’s important to remember that prior to the six-game losing skid, the Heat had won 12 of 13 games. The vast majority of those six losses were close games. Two were to the Pacers, one of which was NOT close. They were both at home. So this is a big-time double revenge spot as Miami not only looks to stay in front of Indiana, but also move up the standings in the depth-shy Eastern Conference. 

The Pacers are off a 132-124 loss (as seven-point favorites) to the Wizards. They’d won four of five before that, including the two wins over Miami. The first saw them shoot the lights out (58.4 FG% including 20 of 33 from 3-pt range) while the second game went to OT. Prior to winning four of five, the Pacers went through a 2-8 stretch themselves, so they’ve had their own struggles. They are only 8-12 SU at home this season (6-14 ATS). In addition to that, they have one of the league’s worst overall ATS marks. The loss on Monday doesn’t bode well as Indiana is 0-3 ATS this season coming off a game where they allowed 130+ points. 

Miami isn’t quite at full strength, but they’re close. The recently acquired Victor Oladipo is ill and not expected to play here. But Goran Dragic returned to the lineup Monday after missing four games. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo combined for 47 points against the Knicks (Adebayo had 18 rebounds too) while Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro combined for 32 more. It was one of the Heat’s better defensive efforts this season and after the six-game slide, I believe this team is due to start turning things around in a positive direction. The double revenge angle is strong here and the Pacers won’t shoot the ball the way they did in the first meeting. The Pacers have also given up 132 or more in two of their last four games.  10* Miami

10* Over Hawks/Suns (10:05 ET): These have been two of my favorite teams to watch this season, so I’m pretty excited about the matchup. Atlanta is 6th in the East with a .500 SU record, but I look for them to finish higher than their current standing by season’s end. Right now, they are in the middle of an eight-game road trip. You may recall that I had the Over in their last game, which cashed and ended up being a 126-102 loss in Denver. That dropped them to 2-3 on the trip, but they easily could have won the other two games they lost. 

Phoenix is a surprising second in the West, ahead of both the Clippers and Lakers. They are 3.5 games behind first place Utah after winning two straight in low-scoring fashion. Wins over Toronto (104-100) and Charlotte (101-97) made it a successful trip of their own out East (won three of four). The game vs. Charlotte on Sunday afternoon was really low-scoring when you consider it went to overtime. At the end of regulation, things were knotted at 90 apiece. But I’ll chalk that up to the usual “Sunday afternoon hangover” so many teams seem to experience in those early games. 

The Suns shot only 35.4% against the Hornets on Sunday and I look for them to easily improve upon that number tonight. Atlanta has let its last two opponents shoot north of 50%. For the year, Phoenix averages 115.3 PPG on 49.2% shooting at home. They are #8 in offensive efficiency. Atlanta is 13-3 Over following a DD loss and their L3 games with a total south of 232.5 have all gone Over. 10* Over Hawks/Suns

10* Under UCLA/Michigan (9:57 ET): UCLA is now the lone double-digit seed (they are an 11) in the Tournament. They’ve had to win FOUR games just to get here as they were in the “First Four.” The Bruins are the first “First Four” team to reach the Elite 8 since the famous 2011 VCU team that made it all the way to the Final Four for Shaka Smart. Give them their due, but two of UCLA’s wins have come in overtime, one of those the “First Four” game (vs. Michigan State) where they trailed most of the way. They got a weak 6-seed (BYU) and then a 14-seed (Abilene Christian) in the Round of 32.

However, there was nothing “phony” at all about the way Mick Cronin’s team defeated 2-seed Alabama in the Sweet 16. Yes, the game went to OT, but the Bruins did lead most of the way. I think what is interesting is the fact the game would have stayed Under if not for OT. There were only 130 total points scored in regulation before a very high scoring extra five minutes. None of UCLA’s last three games have eclipsed the 135-point mark in regulation. Michigan, a top 10 team nationally in defensive efficiency, holds teams to 65.6 PPG on 39.3% shooting for the season. 

After struggling some against LSU in the Round of 32, Michigan looked very impressive in a blowout win (76-58) over Florida State in the Sweet 16. They are 8-1 Under this season following a game where they allowed 60 points or less. The Under has also gone 6-1 in their games with a total of 130 to 139.5 and is 8-2 the L10 times they’ve played with one or zero days’ rest. With UCLA playing at a bottom 20 pace (# of possessions per game) in the country, I see this ending up being a relatively low-scoring game. The Wolverines are without their second leading scorer and made only three 3-pointers vs. FSU. 10* Under UCLA/Michigan

8* USC (7:15 ET): Southern Cal promises to be the toughest test for Gonzaga (29-0 SU) this season. While the Zags do hold early season victories over the likes of Iowa and Kansas, neither of those teams play defense the way the Trojans do. Ironically, USC could have faced both Iowa and Kansas on their path to the Elite 8. But the Hawkeyes got bounced early. Kansas was USC’s 2nd round opponent and was no match as the Trojans won that game “going away” 85-51 (as 1-pt favorites) in what may have been the most impressive single-game effort I’ve seen in the Tournament thus far. 

In addition to destroying Kansas, USC has beaten 11th seeded Drake and 7-seed Oregon to get here. As I alluded to above, it has been their defense that has led the way. After watching them hold both Drake and Kansas below 30% shooting, I had no choice but to roll with the Trojans in the Sweet 16. Same as their regular season matchup against the Ducks, they rolled to a big first half lead and coasted from there. Not only did USC hold Oregon to 37.7% shooting (including 5 of 21 from 3-pt range), but they shot 57.4% themselves (10 of 14 from three). They’ve now shot better than 50% from the floor each of their L4 games.

Gonzaga is obviously the best offensive/overall team in the country, but they’ve failed to hit their season average in PPG in six of the last seven contests. The Bulldogs actually generate a very high percentage of their offense from two-pointers, which could be a problem here as USC has held opponents to 41.5% on 2PA this season, which is #1 in the country! USC has been an underdog only five times this season and never by more than +3.5. This is a lot of points for the #4 ranked defensive team in the country to be getting. The fact this is Gonzaga’s first single digit spread since December is significant. 8* USC

8* Over Arkansas/Baylor (9:57 ET): Both of these teams average more than 80 points per game and are off poor shooting efforts from three-point range. For Baylor, that’s quite atypical. The Bears lead the country in making 40.8% of their attempts from behind the arc. They were just 3 of 19 in the 62-51 win over Villanova. That was their lowest scoring game of the year (by total points) and the second fewest points scored by them in any game. When they scored a season-low 58 at Kansas on 2/27, they came back the next game and scored 94. 

It’s a similar deal with Arkansas, who averages 81.7 PPG but is off a game where they were just 1 of 9 from three-point range. The 72-70 win over Oral Roberts marked the fourth time in five games the Razorbacks were held below their season average in points per game. So they are due for a breakout effort at the offensive end of the floor. This is a pretty low total by Arkansas’ standards and Baylor is 6-2 Over its L8 games.

A team that leads the country in three-point shooting coming off a game where they shot 3 of 19 is a classic bounce back opportunity. Further improving the likelihood of Baylor scoring plenty of points tonight is the fact Arkansas was lucky to hold Oral Roberts to 8 of 31 shooting from 3-point range on Saturday. For the season, the Razorbacks have let their opponents hit 39.1% from behind the arc when away from Fayetteville. Also of note is the fact Arkansas plays at a MUCH faster tempo (17th) than either of Baylor’s previous two opponents (329 and 336). Baylor held Villanova to 3 of 17 shooting from 3-point range, a percentage the Razorbacks should easily eclipse. 8* Over Arkansas/Baylor

8* Arkansas (9:57 ET): The Razorbacks have certainly been “living dangerously” in this Tournament as they’ve won their last two games by two points each. They also trailed Colgate early in the first round. But this Elite Eight matchup with Baylor marks the first time in Tourney that the Hogs have been underdogs and I’m grabbing the points as this line has been bet up. Arkansas has a higher defensive efficiency rating compared to Baylor and I believe is due to “break out” offensively tonight. 

Arkansas averages 81.7 PPG, but they’ve gone Under in five straight while being held below that season average four times. The only time in the Tournament they exceeded their season average in points per game was against Colgate. But it will be a shock to Baylor’s system to face a team that likes to play at such a fast tempo. Per KenPom, the Razorbacks play at the 17th fastest pace in the country. Baylor’s last two opponents - Wisconsin and Villanova - were 329th and 336rd in adjusted tempo, which is as slow as it gets. 

Arkansas made just one three-pointer in its 72-70 win over Oral Roberts. They average seven makes from behind the arc per game, for the season. That’s not a ton, but it’s more than one. They only attempted nine three-pointers vs. Oral Roberts, a really low number. Baylor kept Villanova to 3 of 19 in three-point shooting Saturday, a very low number. So at the same time Arkansas’ 3-point shooting is set to improve, Baylor’s three-point defense is set to regress. Expect this to be a close game. 8* Arkansas

10* Under Kings/Spurs (8:35 ET): I chose the Spurs on Saturday and they rolled to a 120-104 win against the new-look Bulls. That snapped a four-game losing skid for Greg Popovich’s team, who is now 7th in the Western Conference with a 23-20 SU record. Tonight they host a Sacramento team that is on a surprising four-game win streak (matches a season-high). It should be pointed out here that the last time the Kings won four in a row, they proceeded to lose their next nine games (also went 0-9 ATS).

This particular four-game win streak has seen the Kings beat lowly Cleveland twice and also wounded Golden State. So let’s not go making playoff reservations just yet, although the Kings are now just one game back of the last play-in spot in the Western Conference. Surprisingly, it has been an improvement on the defensive end that has spurred on Sacramento recently. They’ve allowed 108 points or less in three of the last four games. While two of those were against Cleveland, the other time was vs. Atlanta.

But I like this game to go Under primarily because I don’t see the Kings matching their red-hot shooting from the last two games. They connected at a ridiculous 59.6% clip against Golden State last Thursday, then were over 50% against vs. Cleveland on Saturday. San Antonio, save for one bad game vs. the Clippers, has been pretty solid defensively as of late. They’ve held six of the last eight opponents to 110 points or less and the Under is 10-1 the L11 times they’ve hosted a team with a losing road record. Sacramento, who is on a 7-0 Under run when playing with exactly one day of rest, is 9-13 SU on the road. 10* Under Kings/Spurs

8* Toronto (8:05 ET): It’s been a miserable March for the Raptors, who are now 1-11 SU this month. Last night saw them waste a 41-point first quarter as they lost 122-117 at home to Portland. But it is worth mentioning that I was with Toronto in their lone win this month, which occurred last Wednesday when they vanquished a good Denver team by a score of 135-111. Last night was the fifth time this month that the Raptors lost a game by five points or less. Their point differential & net efficiency rating for the year both suggest they should be much better than 10 games below .500. So I’ll back them again here. 

Detroit is still in last place in the Eastern Conference, a spot they’ve occupied for most of this season. They’ve lost four in a row and while they played both Indiana and Brooklyn tough, they also lost by 14 to Chicago and Washington. Scoring only 92 points against the Wizards should be considered a huge embarrassment. As was the fact the Pistons trailed by as many as 30 points in that game. They only made things a little closer once Bradley Beal, the NBA’s leading scorer, exited the game with an injury.

This is the third time this month that these teams have played. As you can ascertain from the info given above, the Raptors lost both times. I know times are tough, but how can someone look at themselves in the mirror after losing to the likes of the Pistons three times in one month? Detroit is just 1-8 SU otherwise in March. Toronto was favored by 7.5 and 6.5 in those two games, so we’re getting a bit of value here. Detroit shot abnormally well (above 51% overall and 32 of 70 from 3-pt range), which I don’t see happening again tonight. The Pistons are just 2-8 SU L10 games despite allowing only 107.5 PPG.  8* Toronto

10* Houston (7:15 ET): This “madness” (pun intended!) with Oregon State MUST come to an end. The Beavers, picked to finish LAST in their conference (Pac 12) this season, are somehow one of the final eight teams left in the NCAA Tournament. Had it not been for winning the Pac 12 Tournament, OSU wouldn’t have even qualified for the Big Dance and they are now just the second-ever 12 seed to make the Elite 8. They’ve been a covering machine as well: 6-0 ATS L6, 13-1 ATS L14 and 19-2-1 ATS L22. But I feel it all comes to an end here against a vastly superior Houston side. 

The Cougars are on the verge of their first Final Four since the Phi Slamma Jamma days of the early 80s. Incredibly, they won’t have to defeat a team seeded higher than 10th to get there. Having benefited from some upsets, Kelvin Sampson’s team has beaten Cleveland State, Rutgers and Syracuse to get here. I had them in the Sweet 16 as they locked in defensively and beat the Orange 62-46. They allowed a shooting percentage of just 28.0% for the game, including 21.7 from three-point range. 

Fourth in the country in defensive efficiency, those are the kind of defensive numbers I’m looking for here from the Cougars. Oregon State has been incredibly fortunate from three-point range during their six-game win streak, going 50 of 120 (41.7%) themselves while the opponents have shot just 30 for 142 (21.1%). Houston is #2 in the country in points allowed (57.5 PPG) and teams have shot just 28.0% from 3-point range against them for the season. As I said in the writeup vs. Syracuse (another team that was on a 6-0 ATS run), Houston is a team that’s been winning big. Seven of their last 10 victories have been by 16 or more points. 10* Houston

8* USC (9:45 ET): So we’ve got a matchup of conference rivals in the Sweet 16 as USC takes on Oregon. It’s been a great Tournament thus far for the Pac 12 as they placed four teams in the Sweet 16. USC is the only one favored to make it to the Elite 8, however. As you may have guessed, these teams did meet in the regular season (just once). The Trojans prevailed 72-58 and really it wasn’t even that close as they led 43-22 at the half. I think USC is the much better team here and will gladly lay the short number in the rematch. 

Oregon caught quite the break as they didn’t even have to play a 1st round game. Their scheduled opponent, VCU, was forced to withdraw due to COVID-19. The Ducks took full advantage of that “bye” by then going out and blitzing 2-seed Iowa 95-80 in an upset as 5-point underdogs. For the fourth time in the last five games, the Ducks shot better than 55% from the field (55.9%), which is remarkable. But I don’t think they’ll have that kind of “touch” here against a USC team that has held its first two Tournament opponents below 30% from the field. 

It has been two dominant efforts on the defensive end from the Trojans. They held Drake to 56 points and then Kansas to 51. For the year, their opposing FG% is 38.7, which is just fantastic. The Trojans also tend to dominate on the glass, something Oregon knows all too well as it was outrebounded 39-25 in the first meeting. Annihilating Kansas by 34 should garner more respect in the marketplace than it has as USC is very much a team that “deserves” to be in the Elite 8 as I consider them to be a top 10 team in the country. They were underseeded. 8* USC

8* Under Oregon/USC (9:45 ET): The last time an Oregon game went Under was February 22nd. The opponent was USC. The Ducks again run into their Pac 12 rival here in the Sweet 16 after going Over in eight consecutive contests. They caught a huge break last weekend as their 1st round opponent (VCU) had to withdraw due to COVID-19 protocols. Taking full advantage of the “bye,” the Ducks blitzed Iowa 95-80 in a dominant second round victory. But as we’ve seen before, scoring on USC won’t be as easy. 

The Trojans put the clamps down defensively on both Drake and Kansas last weekend. They held them both to ridiculously low shooting percentages (29.4 and 29.0 respectively) and allowed only 107 points total. Dominating efforts at the defensive end are something we’ve seen throughout the year from Andy Enfield’s team. USC opponents have shot just 38.7% for the season and Oregon was held 40.4% overall despite going 7 of 17 from three-point range. The Ducks scored only 22 first half points in that game.

Now Oregon has lost only once since that time and they’ve shot better than 55% from the field in four of their last five games, which is somewhat preposterous. Given USC’s defensive resume, I’m expecting the Ducks to “cool off” considerably on Sunday night. Nor do I expect USC to match its ridiculously hot shooting from the last game as they made an incredible 57.1% against Kansas. These teams know each other well and that familiarity should lead to a relatively low-scoring contest. Oregon’s Over streak is “due” to end and USC is 8-3 Under following a win by 20+ points. 8* Under Oregon/USC

10* Over Hawks/Nuggets (9:05 ET): Two teams looking to move up the standings in their respective conferences meet Sunday in what should be a good one. Atlanta is 9-2 SU/8-3 ATS since making a coaching change at the beginning of the month and for my money is the fourth best team in the East. Denver has won 10 of its last 13 games (8-5 ATS) to move closer to the injury-riddled Lakers for fourth place in the West. Both sides are coming off wins in their last time out. 

Atlanta was a 124-108 winner at Golden State. That was - by far - their highest scoring effort so far on this current road trip, which is now half over. When all is said and done, it will be an eight-game trip. The first four games were all played in California and saw the Hawks go 2-2 SU. They probably feel that record should be better as they blew a huge lead and lost to the Clippers, then fell by two at Sacramento. I do not see them matching their 54.8% shooting we saw vs. Golden State, but the number of PPG allowed in the L5 games (104.8) is likely to start going up as well. 

When these teams met in Atlanta last month, it was a 123-115 Hawks win where the Over cashed pretty easily. The total is several points LOWER for the rematch, which seems odd. Denver has scored at least 110 points in six of its last seven games and is averaging 116.2 at home for the year. The Over is 27-18 in all Nuggets’ games this season. They attempted only seven free throws in the win over New Orleans on Friday and still scored 113 points. 10* Over Hawks/Nuggets

10* Over Creighton/Gonzaga (2:15 ET): Through their first two games of the Tournament, I’ve seen nothing to dissuade me from thinking (like everybody else) that Gonzaga is the “team to beat.” They annihilated Norfolk State in Round 1, 98-55 as a 33-point favorite, then beat Oklahoma 87-71 and covered the 14-point spread there. That win over Oklahoma extends the Zags’ perfect SU record on the season to 28-0 and the last 25 victories have all been by double digits. They are #1 in the country in scoring at 92.1 PPG and what’s scary is that they still scored 87 on OU despite shooting below 50% (49.1) for the first time in nearly two months. 

Creighton had a close call in Round 1 (beat UCSB 63-62) before easily ousting Ohio in Round 2 (72-58). I saw Clark Kellogg on CBS say that the Bluejays were “due” to break out of their scoring slump and I concurred, a big reason why I took them against Ohio. Ironically, it was their defense that led the way in that win as the Bobcats shot just 31.8% overall and couldn’t make any outside shots. While Creighton is allowing just 60 PPG in the Tourney thus far, that’s not really indicative of “who they are” and I do expect them to struggle defensively in this matchup. 

Assuming Gonzaga can come close to its season average of 92.1 PPG, we would only need around 70 points from Creighton to send this one Over the total. Considering the Bluejays come in averaging 76.3 PPG on the year, I think they can do it. Kellogg was right; this is a team that typically shoots better than what we’ve seen so far in the Tourney. Look for this to turn into a really high-scoring game as Gonzaga is 39-16 Over its L55 games. 10* Over Creighton/Gonzaga

8* Creighton (2:10 ET): I’m gonna “take the bait” (i.e. the points) here against #1 Gonzaga. Full disclosure - this did NOT work well when I took Norfolk State in the first round of the Tournament. But at least now we’ve got a team that has a chance to win. Not that I think Creighton will win, but I see the Bluejays keeping this one within single digits. I used them in the last round when they blew past Ohio 72-58 and really it shouldn’t have even been that close. Creighton is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season, by the way. The most points they were getting in any game was +5.5 at Villanova.

Through their first two games of the Tournament, I’ve seen nothing to dissuade me from thinking (like everybody else) that Gonzaga is the “team to beat.” They annihilated Norfolk State in Round 1, 98-55 as a 33-point favorite, then beat Oklahoma 87-71 and covered the 14-point spread there. That win over Oklahoma extends the Zags’ perfect SU record on the season to 28-0 and the last 25 victories have all been by double digits. But, according to my current power ratings, Creighton will be the best team that the Zags have faced all season besides Iowa, whom they defeated by “only” 11 points.

My power ratings say this spread should be several points lower. The key is that Creighton can score. The Bluejays average 76.3 PPG. They really haven’t shot the ball well - so far - in the Tournament. But that can change. They have lost only two games by double digits all season. Six of the eight losses were by eight points or less, half of those by five or less. Creighton is 12-4 ATS when coming off a game where they allowed 60 points or less. Look for this to be “closer than the experts think” on Sunday. 8* Creighton

8* Houston (9:55 ET): One quarter of this year’s Sweet 16 are double digit seeds and two of those four teams reside in the Midwest Region. Both are from P5 conferences, so these aren’t “Cinderellas” in the true sense of the term. That said, I certainly did not expect to see Syracuse still standing at this juncture of the Tournament. The Orange have upset 6-seed San Diego State and 3-seed West Virginia to get here and are on a 6-0 ATS run, the lone SU loss in that stretch coming by three points to Virginia in the ACC Tournament. 

Houston was my pick to come out of this region, so I’m not at all surprised to see them still playing. With the top seed in the Midwest (Illinois) out, I think you’ve got to make the Cougars the favorites to move on to the Final Four. They certainly made it look easy in the first round when they absolutely buried Cleveland State 87-56 (were 20.5-pt favorites), but it was a lot tougher against Rutgers in the second round. They ended up winning 63-60 (were -7), but had to rally to do so. 

The Cougars have lost only three games this season and the last one was over a month ago at Wichita State. They come into the Sweet 16 on a nine-game win streak and the good news is they often follow a close win with a blowout. Of the nine consecutive victories, three have been by exactly three points each. But the other six wins were all by 24 points or more! Houston is 8-0 ATS this season off an ATS loss, winning those games by an average of nearly 30 PPG! This is a really good team. Most don’t know it yet, but they will after Saturday as Syracuse’s 76.1 PPG allowed when away from home remains a concern. The Orange have shot above 53% overall in the Tournament thus far, but I don’t see that happening here against a team that gives up only 57.9 PPG (#2 in the country). 8* Houston

10* San Antonio (8:35 ET): In the wake of a big trade that yielded Nikola Vucevic, most are going to want to take the Bulls in this spot. But I’m not necessarily “buying the hype” … yet. While it’s true Chicago does now have two All-Star caliber players (Vucevic, Zach LaVine), it’s going to take time for all the new pieces to gel (they made some other moves as well). They haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since early in January and just lost to lowly Cleveland in their last game. They’ve lost four of five overall, only breaking 100 points once during that stretch. 

San Antonio has lost four in a row, the last three of which were here at home. This is a season-long nine-game homestand, so they need to start taking advantage if they want to hold onto their current spot. I will point out that three of the Spurs’ four losses have come against either the Bucks or Clippers. The second game vs. the Clips saw them struggle offensively down the stretch. That was too bad as they held LA to 38.2% shooting for the game. 

San Antonio is still 8th in the West, two games above .500. That’s better than Chicago, who is five games below .500 and in 10th in the weaker East. Acquiring Vucevic has brought increased optimism in the Windy City, but I remain unsold. The Bulls are a horrendous 2-15 SU/5-12 ATS vs. teams that have winning records. Last time they faced one, they lost by 25. Granted that was the Jazz, but it was also at home as was the loss to Cleveland. Can’t see the Spurs losing four in a row at home and the line looks short to me. 10* San Antonio

10* Arkansas (7:25 ET): For just the second time in the NCAA Tournament’s history, a 15-seed has made it to the Sweet 16. The other was Florida Gulf Coast in 2013, a run which ended in this round with a double digit loss to Florida. Oral Roberts looks to avoid that same fate on Saturday as they take on 3-seed Arkansas. The Eagles have upset both Ohio State and Florida (ironic!) to get here, which you have to give them credit for doing. But while on a 7-game SU win streak (6-0 ATS L6), five of those wins have come by four points or less and the last four have been by a total of 11 pts (one went to OT). 

This is a regular season rematch as the teams met all the way back on December 20th in Fayetteville. Arkansas won 87-76, but did not cover as 19.5-point favorites. Obviously, this game is not taking place on the Razorbacks’ campus. However, looking at the line for the regular season matchup and comparing it to this one, you can see some value. Personally, I do not believe the loss of “home court advantage” is worth some eight points to the spread. Since the start of February, Arkansas is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS. They covered both NCAA Tournament games, beating Colgate 85-68 and Texas Tech 68-66. 

Look for Oral Roberts’ “Cinderella” run to end Saturday. I’ve been high on this Arkansas team for much of the season and now they are playing up to their potential. They are top 10 in the country in defensive efficiency whereas Oral Roberts is 238th. The Hogs already come in averaging 82.0 PPG (#7 in the country), so they should score a ton here. ORU allowed Florida to shoot 55.2% in the last round and somehow won despite being down 11 in the second half. Ohio State was very much overrated. This team finished 4th in the Summit League! They are not in the Razorbacks’ class. 10* Arkansas

10* Under Blazers/Magic (8:05 ET): Portland was a 125-122 winner last night in Miami, snapping a two-game losing skid. They are now tied for 5th in the Western Conference, though they’ve been outscored on the year, which gives them a significantly worse point differential than the top five. Really, it’s quite head-scratching how this team is currently eight games above .500. They aren’t very sound defensively, two of their top three players missed significant time and they’ve suffered the most 20+ point losses in the league. But here we are. 

Orlando is near the bottom of the Eastern Conference and considering their activity at yesterday’s trade deadline, they won’t be moving up anytime soon. They traded three of their top players away and that’s why they are such big underdogs tonight. We likely won’t be seeing any repeat of the Magic’s last performance, a 112-111 win here at home over Phoenix as 9.5-point dogs. Without Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier, this team will struggle to score. Those are three double digit scorers and they accounted for more than 50% of the team’s points against the Suns. 

Portland could get Jusuf Nurkic back tonight. CJ McCollum has already returned. They traded for Norman Powell at the deadline. But what we won’t see tonight is a repeat of last night’s three-point shooting display where the Blazers made 20 attempts from behind the arc. That’s the big key here. When these teams met last month in Portland, the final score was 106-97 and that was with the Blazers making 18 3PA. Orlando had failed to reach 100 in five of its previous six games before beating the Suns. They are 29th overall in scoring. 10* Under Blazers/Magic

8* New Orleans (8:05 ET): The Pelicans are a team that “should have” a better record. Point differential wise, they are “in the black” (meaning they’ve outscored their opponents this season), yet they currently are five games BELOW .500. Compare that to a team like Portland, who is eight games over .500 despite a negative YTD point differential. But lately, New Orleans has taken matters into its own hands by picking up B2B wins. They beat Denver 113-108 and the LeBron-less Lakers 128-111. Now it’s a rematch with Denver at home. 

The Nuggets are pretty clearly the West’s 5th best team this season, although they certainly didn’t look like it on Wednesday when I (wisely) decided to fade them against the Raptors. As short road favorites, the Nuggets lost 135-111 to a Toronto team that was on a nine-game losing skid. It was Denver’s worst loss of the season. The game was never really close and quite frankly I was shocked at what an easy winner that ended up being. 

While there’s no doubt that Denver is going to be looking to bounce back, New Orleans just beat them and is a better team than its record shows. Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson are both really good. The Pelicans’ starting forwards both went for 30+ last week vs. Denver, then Ingram scored a career high 36 vs. the Lakers. Williamson has 21 straight games with 20+ points. The team averages 118.1 PPG at home. Denver is only 1-7 ATS (2-6 SU) this season when the total is 230 points or higher, so this is the kind of game they typically lose. 8* New Orleans

10* Western Kentucky (10:00 ET): These Conference USA rivals met twice in the regular season, both times in Bowling Green (that’s WKU) and they split the pair. WKU won the first one, 66-64, but then was a 63-58 loser the following day. LA Tech covered both spreads as they were eight-point underdogs in the first meeting and then obviously an outright winner the second time around. But using those first two lines as “barometers,” it would certainly appear as if we’re getting some decent value on WKU for the “rubber match” as they are now a pick ‘em here in Frisco, TX for the NIT Quarterfinals. 

These were the two division winners in C-USA in the regular season. Both were ousted by eventual winner North Texas in the C-USA Tourney. LA Tech went down first (in the semis) then WKU lost in the final. That tourney final went to OT and was the Hilltoppers’ fourth game in as many days, so I thought it was pretty impressive that they were able to bounce back and defeat a good St. Mary’s team 69-67 in the opening round of the NIT. Though it ended up as a two-point game, WKU took the lead for good with eight minutes to go in the first half. 

Louisiana Tech upset Ole Miss in its first NIT game. They had a full week off between the C-USA Tournament and NIT while WKU had just three days in between their loss to North Texas and the win over St. Mary’s. Now it’s WKU that comes in with more rest for this game as they last played eight days ago while La Tech last played Saturday. The Hilltoppers did not shoot the ball well in either regular season matchup (35% overall), but I look for that to change here as they earn an 11th win away from home this season. 10* Western Kentucky

10* New York (7:35 ET): These teams just met Tuesday with the Knicks winning 131-113 as 2.5-point underdogs. I had NY Tuesday and see no reason to “deviate from the script” for tonight’s rematch. The Knicks are a major surprise this year in that they are currently 6th in the Eastern Conference. HC Tom Thibodeau has just done a tremendous job here as the team is #1 in the league in points per game allowed (105.0). The fact that they scored 131 the other night is not surprising as Washington happens to be dead LAST in the league in PPG allowed, giving up an average of 120.2. 

The Wizards have dropped seven of their last eight games and there’s been only one time during that stretch they didn’t give up more than their season average in points allowed (and that one time wasn’t the lone win either). It is an absolute embarrassment that a team with Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook may not even make the playoffs in the weak Eastern Conference. Not helping their cause tonight is the fact their scoring dips by more than eight points per game on the road compared to when they’re at home. 

Six Knicks finished in double figures Tuesday night, led by Julius Randle’s 37 points. The team shot a blistering 16 of 30 from three-point range and led by 20 at halftime. Normally, I might say the Knicks are likely to “cool off,” but facing the Wizards it should be yet another big night at the offensive end of the floor. This is just a really good matchup for NY, who is 2-0 SU/ATS this season following a game where they scored 130+. The Wiz are just 5-19 SU vs. conference opponents this season. 10* New York

10* Under Hornets/Rockets (8:05 ET): These are two teams that have both fallen on “hard times” recently. Charlotte just lost presumed Rookie of the Year LaMelo Ball (likely for the remainder of the season), which is a massive blow to a team that had been overachieving. Houston had just lost 20 in a row before beating Toronto 117-99 on Monday. Victor Oladipo is likely to be moved in the coming days as the Rockets have no chance of making the playoffs and are heading for a rebuild, post-James Harden. I expect this to be a relatively low-scoring game on Wednesday, even lower-scoring than the 119-94 game they played last month. 

Charlotte won that game, as a 1.5-point home dog, back on February 8th. After a high-scoring first half (64-60), things slowed down rather dramatically in the second. Houston did not shoot well (40.7%) overall while the Hornets did, particularly from three-point range (19 of 41). Ball made a career-high seven threes in that game (finished with 24-7-10), but he’s obviously not going to do that again tonight. Yes, the Hornets did win their first game without Ball, beating San Antonio Monday night. But they did so in 100-97 fashion. 

Charlotte is 6-1 Under its L7 games and has failed to top 105 points in any of the last four. Keep in mind all but one of those games were WITH Ball in the lineup. Both teams won on Monday because of their respective efforts at the defensive end (held opponents under 100 pts) and they know that’s the path to victory moving forward. Houston is only averaging 104.6 PPG at home where the Under is now 15-5 for the season. The Under is also 5-1 this season for the Rockets when they are coming off a DD win. I just don’t think either of these teams are very good offensively right now. 10* Under Hornets/Rockets