8* Texas (10:30 ET): We’ve got ourselves a top five matchup in College Basketball in the very first week of the season. Gonzaga, whose only loss since the start of last year came in the National Championship Game (to Baylor), will host Texas. The Zags - not surprisingly - entered 2021-22 as the top ranked team in the country yet again. They’ve brought in some exciting newcomers to help fill the void left by a lot of departing talent. But this Texas team is very much “for real” as 1st year HC Chris Beard brought in a ridiculous amount of talent to Austin. I’m taking the points in this one. 

Texas won its season opener 92-48 over Houston Baptist. That the Longhorns won was obviously not a surprise, but it is impressive that they covered the huge 37.5 point spread. Beard has SEVEN transfers with D-I experience and most came from “name” schools. Beard was obviously very successful at Texas Tech and I expect similar results here at his alma mater. Texas shot 62% from the field in its opening game, including 13 of 22 from three-point range. This figures to be one of the few times they are underdogs in a game this season. 

Gonzaga led the country in scoring last year and will probably be one of the most prolific scoring teams again in 2021-22. But, it may take time for this team to get on the same page. HC Mark Few missed the opener as he was serving a one-game suspension for DUI. The Zags still won comfortably without their coach - 97-63 over Dixie State - but did not cover the 39.5 point spread. I think there’s a real shot the Bulldogs may LOSE this game (outright!) so taking the points is a “no brainer” to me. Texas is 20-8 ATS its L28 games as a road underdog. 8* Texas

10* Atlanta (9:05 ET): Well, I guess I’m chasing the Hawks, who are 0-5 ATS in their last five games (also 0-5 SU) and a mind-numbing 0-8 ATS on the road this season. Remember that this is a team that made it to the Conference Finals last season. The road-heavy schedule to start the season seems to have taken a toll, but I remain a believer that the Hawks can bounce back tonight in Denver. Four of the Nuggets’ last six games have been decided by three points or less and they’ve been fortunate to win three of those. 

Now I took the Hawks plus the points in each of their two previous games. Those plays obviously failed to come through as they lost to Utah and Golden State by a combined 26 points. With the benefit of hindsight, I was probably being a bit stubborn in thinking Atlanta would keep up with the two best teams in the NBA right now. This road trip started with a four-point loss in Phoenix, so the Hawks have had to play four of the West’s top teams. But of the four, Denver might be the weakest.

The Nuggets are averaging only 101.8 PPG thus far. They did just win, 101-98 against Indiana, without Nikola Jokic (who was suspended). Jokic will be back tonight, but Michael Porter Jr is expected to miss a third straight game due to a sore back. I don’t think Denver can count on another career-night from Zeke Nnaji, who scored 19 against the Pacers. Atlanta could be getting back both Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter tonight. That would be a boost. But the bottom line is that I just can’t see the Hawks failing to cover ANOTHER road game. Take the points here as Denver has only covered one of the last six times it has been favored. 10* Atlanta

8* UL Lafayette (8:00 ET): The spread has jumped the fence for this matchup. Louisiana now finds itself favored, on the road, after beating West Florida (non-board team) 81-47 on Tuesday. Southern Miss won in similar fashion against a lackluster opponent (William Carey), 81-67. It’s interesting that the line has flipped, which may have something to do with the fact the Ragin Cajuns are looking to end a four-game losing streak to Southern Miss. I think the line move is justified and will back the visitors in this one. 

Louisiana never trailed against West Florida as they jumped out to a 17-4 lead after six minutes. The lead grew to as large as 42 in the second half. While it was not a formidable opponent that they were up against, the Ragin Cajuns winning in blowout fashion seems a little more impressive when you consider they made only 8 of 29 three-point attempts and went 5 of 11 from the free throw line. I expect those numbers to go way up tonight. Eight players scored at least seven points, so this is a deep team. 

Southern Miss also had a big second half lead on Tuesday, but the difference between them and Louisiana is that they could not maintain it. The Golden Eagles are not that deep as five players combined to score all but five of their points in the opener. It was a 30-point night from Tae Hardy, which probably can’t be counted on here. My power rankings call Louisiana the better team here, so this looks to be a simple case of the oddsmakers setting a bad line. Let’s take advantage of that mistake. 8* UL Lafayette

10* Over Northern Illinois/Indiana (7:00 ET): Both teams started their respective 2021-22 seasons with an Under. Now, the fact Northern Illinois’ first game stayed Under was NOT the biggest takeaway, as the Huskies pulled a HUGE upset over Washington, winning 71-64 as 20-point underdogs. Indiana won much closer than expected against Eastern Michigan, 68-62 as 24.5-point favorites. 

The Hoosiers were up by 20 in the second half, but quickly let that lead slip away and found themselves ahead by just one point with 2:46 to go. I know there are some concerns about “offensive consistency” under new HC Mike Woodson, but you’ve got to expect IU will shoot better from three-point range tonight compared to the 4 of 24 effort we saw in the opener. It’s the defense that I think is likely to regress on Friday. The Hoosiers held Eastern Michigan to a 31.3 FG% and without a field goal for the first 7 ½ minutes of the game. 

Tonight’s MAC opponent shot a blistering 52.3% from behind the arc in its upset win in Seattle. Now, will they match that number tonight in Bloomington? Probably not. But they also aren’t going to watch their opponent go 3 for 18 from behind the arc like Washington did. This is a lower O/U than either team faced in its respective opener. Indiana had previously been 8-1 to the Over against MAC teams. They’ve gone Under their last five games overall, dating back to the end of last season. That streak ends here. 10* Over Northern Illinois/Indiana

analysis soon

8* Maryland (6:30 ET): The Terrapins are ranked #21 in the country at the start of the new College Basketball season. They opened the season with a fairly comfortable 83-69 win over Quinnipiac on Tuesday. Though they did not cover the large 23.5-point spread in that game, they were up big most of the way. It was 41-25 at halftime and the lead grew to as big as 25 points in the second half. Quinnipiac went on a 9-2 run over the final four minutes to steal the cover though. While that’s always a concern when laying a big number, expect the Terps to leave with the cash tonight against George Washington. 

GW has a LOT of new faces entering the 2021-22 season. There are NINE new transfers on the squad, more than any other team in the country. Only ONE player is left from last season, the first under HC Jamion Christian. So I expect there to be lots of “growing pains” for the Colonials early on. They barely snuck by St. Francis (PA) on Tuesday, winning only 75-72 as seven-point chalk. That’s despite the fact St. Francis shot only 1 of 9 from three-point range in the game. It’s obviously a big step up in class for GW here tonight and I don’t think they’re ready for it.

Maryland has plenty of size, which should give GW all sorts of problems in this one. The Terrapins also have plenty of depth. “We have seven starters,” said HC Mark Turgeon after Tuesday’s season opening win. GW was the worst defensive team in the Atlantic 10 a season ago and figures to struggle at that end of the floor yet again as all the new pieces try and come together. The Colonials have covered just one of their last five games as a road dog of 12.5 or more points. That trend continues in this one. 8* Maryland

10* Minnesota (10:05 ET): The T’wolves were extremely unfortunate not to cover the spread Monday in Memphis. First off, they led by 16 points in the fourth quarter. After blowing the entirety of that lead, they were still “in the money” (as 4.5-point underdogs) when Karl-Anthony Towns decided to hit a 39-foot heave at the end of regulation to tie the game up. You can guess what came next. Minnesota lost by seven in overtime. 

Tonight’s assignment in Golden State may look like a tough one for the T’wolves, but I’m banking on them at least being able to cover the spread here. Now I know that the Warriors are 9-1 SU and have yet to be beaten in regulation. (Their only loss came in OT against Memphis). But the Dubs have been feasting on some bad teams recently. While Minnesota’s SU record is only 3-6, they’ve only been outscored by 4.1 PPG. 

In the last two games, Minnesota has held leads of 20 and 16 points, yet is somehow 0-2 ATS. Steph Curry had 50 points in Golden State’s last game, a performance he isn’t about to duplicate here. Interestingly enough, the Warriors were outscored in three of the four quarters by Atlanta. They had one big quarter (third) where they outscored the Hawks 41-20. That doesn’t seem sustainable to me? 10* Minnesota

8* Idaho (9:00 ET): So this spread appears to be WAY off as my own power ratings say the home team should be slightly favored. Long Beach State isn’t even a top 300 team, so the idea of them laying the points (especially this many) on the road seems dicey at best. The Beach were a 6-12 SU team last season and missed a ton of action due to COVID-19. Once a proud program, LBSU has now had five consecutive losing seasons under HC Dan Monson. 

Now I’m well aware that Idaho went 1-21 SU last year. That’s obviously really bad. The top two scorers from LY are gone, but it’s not like they made much of a difference. I understand that people are going to look at the Vandals’ 2020-21 record and give them no shot here. But this team is going to be better this season. HC Zac Claus knows that this is one the more winnable games for his team. 

Again, I’m going to put faith in my power rankings, which basically call this a ‘pick em type game. LBSU may be looking forward to a game with UCLA over the weekend. For Idaho, this game will have their full attention. The Vandals did end last season on a 3-0 ATS run. They had five losses by six points or less. Expect them to be competitive in this first game of the season. 8* Idaho

8* Charlotte (8:05 ET): The Hornets are 0-5 SU/ATS in November and just 2-7 SU/ATS their last nine games overall. Tonight marks the end of a five-game road trip that has seen them lose three times by double digits. But after only losing by three (in overtime) at the Lakers the other night, Charlotte should finally break through here. 

Memphis is also off an overtime game, although they were victorious, 125-118 over Minnesota. The Grizzlies were very lucky to win that game, let alone cover the point spread. They trailed by as many as 16 in the fourth quarter. Had the Timberwolves’ Karl-Anthony Towns not made a 39-foot heave at the end of regulation, then the Grizz would NOT have covered the 4.5-point spread. But thanks to the extra five minutes they did and anyone who laid the points in that game should have felt very lucky to cash a winning ticket. 

That win over the T’wolves was just the third game Memphis was favored to win all season. It was the first time they covered as favorites since the season opener vs. Cleveland. Prior to defeating the T’wolves, the Grizzlies had lost 115-87 at Washington. In addition to the OT win on Monday, they have two other wins this season by three points or less. I think the Grizz are a good team to fade as chalk right now, especially with Charlotte being so desperate for a win. 8* Charlotte

10* Portland State (10:30 ET): Oregon State was an Elite Eight team last March. The Beavers, as a 12-seed, shockingly made it to the end of the NCAA Tournament’s second weekend before bowing out at the hands of Houston. They were also one of the country’s best ATS teams, finishing the year 23-8-1 at the betting window. That’s one of the reasons I’ll be looking to fade them in the 2021-22 season opener. Another is that they have seven first-year scholarship players and nine newcomers overall. 

Portland State was not really a “player” in the Big Sky Conference last year, finishing eighth in the 11-team league and making a first round exit in the Conference Tournament. The Vikings have a new head coach entering this year in Jase Coburn. While he brought in seven transfers, Coburn also has the benefit of lots of returning experience. There are eight players back from last season, four of whom started 10 or more games. I expect PSU to be much improved. 

Though Oregon State would go on to win the Pac 12 Tournament last season, they are pegged for just a fourth place finish here in 2021-22. Had they not made the run in the Conf Tourney, the Beavers would not have even made the Big Dance. Their Elite Eight appearance makes them an early season target. Portland State played the Beavers tough last season, only losing by five here in Corvallis as a 13-point underdog. OSU closing LY on a 14-1 ATS run (underdog in most games) was pretty ridiculous and I just have to fade them here. 10* Portland State

8* Portland (10:05 ET): This is an early season rubber match between the Trail Blazers & Clippers. These teams have taken turns beating each other, each winning on their own floor in blowout fashion. First it was the Clippers prevailing 116-86 here at Staples Center. Then it was the Blazers turn to return the favor with a 111-92 win several days later. I had the Blazers in that rematch and will go with them again here, plus the points. I know they are 0-4 SU/ATS on the road, but coming off B2B wins at home, I think they’re ready to end that particular losing streak. 

Portland has been favored in every game but one so far. That one exception was the previous game here vs. the Clippers. So unless they’ve been facing the Clips on the road, the Blazers have been favored every time out. That makes their 5-5 SU overall record seem like a disappointment. But, as alluded to above, things have begun to take a turn for the better. Damian Lillard made 6 of 15 3PA in Saturday’s 105-90 win over the Lakers. That game was a blowout most of the way with the Blazers leading by 30+ in the third quarter. That followed a win, 110-106 over Indiana, where *I* cashed them. 

The Clippers have won four in a row, the last three all coming by double digits. But they’ve been beating up on bad teams. Two of the wins were against Minnesota, another vs. Oklahoma City and then Sunday required a 22-0 run in the 4Q to beat Charlotte. I’m still not really sold on the Clips without Kawhi Leonard. They’re a middle of the pack team in the West until he returns. Take the points here. 8* Portland

8* Under Kentucky/Duke (9:30 ET): Kentucky and Duke are each off disappointing seasons. The Wildcats were just plain bad in 2020-21, going 9-16 straight up, while the Blue Devils weren’t much better at 13-11. Neither made the NCAA Tournament.  Yet the pollsters didn’t hesitate putting both of them in the preseason top 10. That’s a little high from where I sit, but not all that egregious. I’m taking the Under on Opening Night as these two College Basketball “bluebloods” open the season in NYC as part of the State Farm Champions Classic. 

When I think Duke-Kentucky, I always think back to the all-time great game in 1991 where Christian Laettner hit his famous buzzer beater to send the Blue Devils to the Final Four. I’m a little surprised that the programs have only met three times since 2012. All were early season matchups like this one. The most recent came in 2018 with Duke winning in blowout fashion, 118-84. Needless to say, you shouldn’t expect anywhere close to that many points scored here tonight. 

Both squads have a lot of new faces. For Kentucky, that’s nothing new. Although this time Coach Cal has leaned heavily on the transfer portal. Coach K recruits just as well (if not better) than Coach Cal and four starters on this team will be freshmen. With all the new faces, I can’t see this being a high-scoring game. Kentucky averaged just 66.6 PPG vs. non-conf teams last year while giving up only 64.9. Duke isn’t going to score 70 points in this game. 8* Under Kentucky/Duke

10* Atlanta (9:05 ET): For a half, it sure looked like the Hawks were the right side last night against the Warriors. I took them, plus the points, and they led Golden State 65-61 at the break. Early in the 2Q, they were up by as many as 11. But then the third quarter and Steph Curry happened. Atlanta was outscored 41-20 in the 3Q and Curry finished the game with 50 points and 10 assists. The Hawks lost 127-113. They are now a shocking 0-7 ATS on the road this season. 

Things will not get any easier for the Hawks tonight as they must visit Utah to play the Jazz, who are the only team that I have rated higher than Golden State in my power rankings. This is a game Atlanta desperately needs as not only are they 0-7 ATS on the road this season; they’ve also lost six of seven overall straight up, including four straight. I’m going to take the points again, feeling this team is simply better than what it has shown recently. Remember they were in the Eastern Conference Finals just a few months ago. 

This is the second meeting in a week between the Hawks and Jazz. Utah took the first one, in Atlanta, 116-98. The Hawks were actually slight favorites for that game. As rough as things have been recently, there looks to be value on them plus the points in the rematch. Utah has lost its last two games, the last one coming in Orlando where they were 11-point favorites. 10* Atlanta

10* Atlanta (10:05 ET): The Hawks are 0-6 ATS on the road so far. That’s the most losses without a single cover in the league. Portland (0-4 ATS) is the only other team yet to cover a spread on the road. While it’s a short number they’re getting tonight, and they’re up against a hot Golden State team, look for Atlanta to end its six-game ATS road losing streak. Key here is that the Warriors had to play last night. This is the first time all season that the Dubs find themselves in the second night of a back to back. Take the points. 

Golden State did prevail on Sunday, winning 120-107 over lowly Houston. It was not only the fourth straight SU win for the Dubs, but also their fourth straight cover. All four wins have come by double digits.  The team is now 8-1 SU on the year and the one loss came in overtime (to Memphis). Last night also marked the first Warriors’ game to go Over since the season opening win against the Lakers. But as good as the Dubs have been of late, I simply view this as a “bad spot.” Any team can have an “off-night.” 

Sure enough, the Warriors are 8-14 ATS the previous two seasons when playing without rest. It should be noted that the Hawks came VERY close to covering the other night in Phoenix, only to lose by four as 3.5 point underdogs. For the record, I cashed the Over in that game. The Hawks actually led by double digits going into the fourth quarter. Losers of three in a row, this team will be desperate for a win Monday night.  Remember they were in the Conference Finals last summer. Look for the dog to take advantage of a tired favorite. 10* Atlanta

10* Under Hornets/Clippers (9:05 ET): The Clippers have won three in a row, the last two both coming against Minnesota, to square their record away at 4-4 SU for the season. Remember that they are without Kawhi Leonard (and others!), which really leaves the scoring burden on Paul George (27.9 PPG). Now it’s obviously helped that the team is allowing an average of just 98 PPG during its current win streak. The Clips actually had to rally back from down 20 against the T’wolves on Friday, so there was a 40-point swing that took place in that game! 

Charlotte is not doing a good job defensively so far. They are giving up the most points per game in the league (117.4) and just allowed Sacramento to hit a franchise-record 22 three-pointers on Friday. That game got ugly in a hurry and the Hornets ended up losing by 30, 140-110. I’m expecting a better effort on the defensive end here. I mean, how could it be any worse? It was the second time this season that the Hornets allowed 140 in a game. The other was an overtime loss to Boston. I have to mention that other than those two games where they allowed 140, the Hornets have not allowed more than 114 in any of the other L9 games. 

I’ll be taking the Under in this one. I just don’t think the Clippers, even with Reggie Jackson shooting well these last three games, have much scoring punch behind George. Charlotte is due to defend the three-point arc better here than they did on Friday. The Clippers don’t shoot the ball particularly well from three-point range, especially at home where they’re just 30%. But they do defend the three-point line well, keeping teams to just 28.5% here at the Staples Center. The Under is 6-2 in all Clippers games so far. 10* Under Hornets/Clippers

10* Over Hawks/Suns (10:05 ET): Two teams that made surprisingly deep playoff runs last summer will collide tonight in Phoenix. Atlanta made just its second EVER appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals, losing to eventual champion Milwaukee in six games. Of course, Phoenix’s season also came to an end at the hands of the Bucks, but that was in the NBA Finals (just the second time in their history that the Suns made it that far). At the start of 2021-22, it’s been a bit of a rocky start for both (needless to say what’s going on OFF the court in PHX). But I expect tonight’s game to have some fireworks.

The Hawks are just 4-5 SU and coming off an ugly 116-98 loss at home to Utah where they shot just 25% from three point range. I’m aware of the Hawks’ 0-5 ATS road record, but expect them to shoot the ball better tonight. Trae Young was not only just 8 for 20 overall against the Jazz, but he didn’t make a single three (0 for 4). Like a lot of teams right now, Atlanta is struggling to make shots (especially on the road), but I don’t expect that to continue. They are 25th in defensive efficiency and allowing opponents to shoot over 49% the L5 games.

Suns’ owner Robert Sarver is currently being investigated by the league for a variety of misconduct, so that’s going to be a distraction. But on the court, the team is 4-3 SU and has won three straight - all here at home. Those three wins have been by an average of 11 PPG, however take note of the fact they came against Cleveland, New Orleans and Houston. Thursday night saw the Suns score a season-high 123 points and they didn’t even shoot that great. The previous four Atlanta-Phoenix matchups have all gone Over with a minimum of 227 total points being scored. 10* Over Hawks/Suns

10* Portland (10:05 ET): Can the Blazers really lose four straight times as favorites? I hope not, because I’m laying the points with them Friday night at home vs. the Pacers. Now I haven’t forgotten how Portland failed to come through for me in their last game. That was a 107-104 loss at Cleveland. The defensive effort was simply not up to par as the Blazers allowed the Cavs to shoot 52.7% from the field, including 15 of 30 on three-point attempts. But one reason I believe today can (and will) be different is that the Blazers are back home where they’re 3-1 SU so far this season. (They are 0-4 on the road). 

Not long ago, Indiana was a team that I championed to turn things around. It was Monday when I took them and they covered the spread for me in a 131-118 win over San Antonio. They followed that by beating the Knicks on Wednesday, 111-98. Prior to the B2B wins, the Pacers were just 1-6 SU overall and looked like one of the real “disappointments” in the Eastern Conference. But now they have to go and do something they have yet to do all season and that’s win on the road. So far the team is 0-4 SU away from home and giving up an average of 120.2 points in those four contests. 

Portland has averaged 120.5 PPG at home so far. In my analysis for their game vs. Cleveland, I talked about how it’s only a matter of time until Damian Lillard gets on track. Lillard did go for a team-high 26 points against the Cavs, but that was on 10 of 27 shooting (3 of 12 from 3PT range). I trust that he and his teammates will shoot better tonight now that they’re back home. The Blazers have been favored in all but one game so far, so their 3-5 SU record is a major disappointment. They’ll win and cover tonight. 10* Portland

8* New Orleans (10:05 ET): I think it’s safe to say that Golden State is off to a pretty great start to the season. They will never again ascend to the heights of those championship teams from several years back, but they’ve definitely been the second best team in the Western Conference (behind Utah) thus far. The Warriors are 6-1 SU and have yet to be beaten in regulation (lone loss was by three, to Memphis, in overtime). Since suffering that one loss, they’ve put together a couple commanding victories over Oklahoma City and Charlotte, beating those two teams by 21 and 22 points respectively.

New Orleans is NOT off to a good start. They are 1-8, which has them dead last in the Western Conference. Zion Williamson has not played and will probably be out for two more weeks. But at least Brandon Ingram appears ready to return tonight. Ingram has missed the Pelicans’ last three games, all of which have been losses, the last two coming by a combined 25 points at Phoenix and Sacramento. Before those three games, the Pelicans had been competitive, losing to the Hawks and Kings by a combined seven points.

Playing on national television, the Pelicans certainly won’t want to be embarrassed tonight. So look for a solid effort in this Friday night ESPN matchup. They are due to start shooting the ball better while at the same time the defense can only improve (last four opponents have all shot 50% or better). Golden State held its previous two opponents to 36% from the field, which is hard to do. The Dubs figure to be a popular play tonight, but I think it’s a great spot to be a “contrarian.” Take the points. 8* New Orleans

8* Over Celtics/Heat (8:05 ET): Reports indicate that there was an “emotional” players-only meeting in the Boston locker room ahead of last night’s 92-79 win over Orlando. The Celtics have certainly been an early season “disappointment” as they are still only 3-5 SU even after Wednesday’s victory. Marcus Smart went public in his criticism of teammates Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, leading to the closed door meeting. I guess it worked, at least for a night, but the team better be on the same page for Thursday’s game as they visit Miami to take on what has been a red hot Heat team. 

Miami has started the year 6-1 SU and outscored opponents by a league-high 16.7 points per game. Their only loss came in the second game of the season, 102-91 at Indiana. All six victories have been by double digits, the closest margin being 13 points! It’s tough to imagine them being able to play any better than they have thus far, especially at the defensive end where they are tops in the NBA in both points allowed and efficiency. They are one of just two teams to be holding their opponents below 100 PPG thus far. I do not see that continuing. 

But while I expect the Heat defense to regress a bit, look for their three-point shooting to pick up. In three home games, they’ve shot just under 31% from behind the arc. Considering they are at 36.7% from 3PT range for the season, I anticipate a good night from long range here. Miami is no Orlando, whom the Celtics were able to hold to 79 points last night on 32.1% shooting. Boston actually ranks 26th in the league in defensive efficiency so far. But they (meaning the Celtics) should also shoot better than they did last night. 8* Over Celtics/Heat

8* Over Hornets/Warriors (10:05 ET): Golden State has stayed Under in all of its last five games. My guess is that they could care less as they’ve ascended back to the top of the Western Conference, a place they were accustomed to before nose diving the L2 seasons. The Dubs have yet to be beaten in regulation this season as their only loss came in OT to Memphis, 104-101, last Thursday. (It just so happens. At 5-1, they are just a half-game back of Utah entering Wednesday for 1st place in the West. 

Charlotte started its season 3-0, but has since dropped three of five. They very nearly erased a big 4Q deficit against Cleveland at home on Monday, but still came up three points short in a 113-110 loss. The Hornets were down 17 with just seven minutes to go and it’s worth pointing out that they’ve trailed by double digits in all but one game this season. Turnovers were the problem vs. Cleveland, at least in the first half, They also didn’t shoot the ball particularly well through the first three quarters. 

The good news here (for the Hornets) is that they come in leading the NBA in 3-point FG% (41.1). The Warriors are no slouch in that department either as they are making 38.1% of their attempts from behind the arc (40.7 at home). So I’m anticipating a good old fashioned “shootout” tonight in San Francisco and for that Golden State Under streak to come to an end. Six of Charlotte’s eight games have gone Over. The Warriors, who have not played since Saturday, are 4-0 Over the L3 seasons when playing with three or more days rest. 8* Over Hornets/Warriors

10* Portland (7:05 ET): Here, you’ve got two teams whose records somewhat defy the odds. Portland has been favored in all but one game so far. They are just 3-4 straight up. Cleveland has been an underdog in ALL of its games, yet is 4-4 SU. I just can’t see the Blazers losing for a third straight time as chalk nor do I see the Cavs continuing this surprising early season run. So lay the short number with the road team. 

Portland is 0-3 SU and ATS on the road. Tonight will be their third road game in four nights. As I alluded to earlier, the Blazers went off as the betting favorite in each of the previous two contests. Their last game was a 113-103 loss to a Philadelphia team that was playing without Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid and Danny Green. It was a bad loss, plain and simple. Right now, it would be very easy to “point the finger” at Damian Lillard, who is averaging career-lows in points, FG% and 3PT FG%. Lillard went 7 for 20 overall (2 for 9 from behind the arc) against the Sixers. I believe it’s only a matter of time before he - and the team - gets back on track. 

Look for it to start tonight in Cleveland. The Cavs are coming off a five-game road trip (that was mostly out West) and saw them pull three outright upsets. The latest upset win came Monday in Charlotte when they won 113-110. They blew a big lead in the fourth quarter of that game. Important to note is that in three of the Cavs’ four wins, the opponent has failed to score 100 points. Yet it’s not as if the Cavs have some great defensive efficiency rating. I just believe Portland, specifically Lillard, is due to get back on track here and I’m not a buyer on the Cavs’ start. 10* Portland

8* Sacramento (9:05 ET): As one would expect, the Kings have not had much success against the Jazz these last few seasons. They are just 1-8 - straight up and against the spread - the last nine meetings. The one SU win came by a single point as 4.5 point dogs very early in the 2019-20 season. All eight losses have come by at least nine points and quite frankly the average margin is pretty huge. But I’m here to tell you that you shouldn't be surprised when the visitors (Sacramento) make this close a game on Tuesday night.

Utah, as they were expected to be, is one of top teams in the Western Conference so far. They are 5-1 SU with a conference leading +12.9 per game point differential. But I successfully faded them in their lone loss, which came on Saturday in Chicago, 107-99 as 3.5-point favorites to the Bulls. They immediately followed that with perhaps their signature win of the season, 107-95 over defending NBA Champion Milwaukee as five-point home favorites. The Bucks shot very poorly in that game.

The Kings have already lost to the Jazz once this season. It was a 110-101 game in Sacramento back on October 22nd. But the Kings come into this game with a 3-3 SU record. Now all three wins have been close (decided by four points or less), however all three were also on the road! I fully anticipate that the Kings will shoot the ball better from three-point range here than they did vs. Dallas Sunday (just 19.4%). They finished with a season-low in points and their top two scorers (Barnes, Fox) finished a combined 10 of 32. Take the points. 8* Sacramento

10* Memphis (8:05 ET): When Nikola Jokic went down with what looked to be a serious knee injury last Tuesday, there was some serious concern that the reigning league MVP would be out for an extended period of time. But Jokic ended up not even missing a game and has since led his Nuggets to B2B wins. The first was a blowout over Dallas at home and then the Nuggets eked out a 93-91 win at Minnesota on Saturday. But this being their third game in four nights, and on the road, I think it’s a bad spot for them. 

Memphis has fallen to 3-3 SU on the season after dropping three of their last four games. They played their worst game of the season on Saturday night, here at home vs. Miami. The Grizzlies lost 129-103 in a game they were favored to win by two points. They shot just 38.6% from the field. But the big problem was allowing the Heat to hit 21 three-pointers. The Grizz were down 16 at the end of the first quarter and never really got close after that. Needless to say, you should expect a much better effort tonight. 

Memphis isn’t just looking to bounce back from a bad loss, they also are playing with triple revenge tonight. They lost all three matchups with Denver last year. But take note two of those losses were decided by a total of three points. What’s interesting about this matchup is that the Grizzlies have been far better at the offensive end than Denver this year, but much worse defensively. I just can’t see the Grizz dropping B2B games as a home favorite nor can I see the Nuggets winning B2B games as a road underdog. 10* Memphis

8* Indiana (7:05 ET): The Pacers are off to a dismal start at 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS. Leading scorer Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring) is hurt and listed as questionable for tonight. In addition to that, Caris LeVert (who played for the first time in Saturday’s 97-94 loss to Toronto) is on a minutes restriction as he continues to work his way back from offseason back surgery. But I see the wounded Pacers picking up a win tonight over a San Antonio team that’s off a big upset and unlikely to win two straight on the road. Lay the short number here. 

The Spurs are 2-4 SU. They’ve actually covered the number in the first two games of this three-game trip, first losing in Dallas by only five points (were 7-point dogs) and then shocking Milwaukee 102-93 on Saturday, once again as a seven-point dog. Coming off a win over the NBA Champs means a “letdown” is likely in order for Greg Popovich’s team on Monday. This isn’t “your older brothers Spurs” by any stretch of the imagination. Coming into tonight, I’ve got them in the bottom seven of my own personal power ratings. 

Indiana isn’t much higher than San Antonio in the ratings, but I do have the ahead by a couple points. So with the home court advantage tonight, the Pacers seem like a logical play. I know that the injuries are a concern, but this is a team that could have a much better record right now. Three of their losses have been by three points or less, including two by exactly one point (first two games). The Spurs benefited from the Bucks shooting VERY poorly on Saturday night. Off B2B sub-100 point efforts, I think the Pacers are set to break out at the offensive end tonight. 8* Indiana

10* Chicago (8:05 ET): The Bulls suffered their first loss of the season on Thursday and I was happy to see it. No disrespect to those in the Windy City, I just happened to be on the team they were playing (Knicks) and it was my *10* Game of the Month. It was a tight game with the Knicks (who were slight underdogs) ultimately prevailing 104-103. Unfortunately for the Bulls, the news didn’t get any better on Friday when it was learned that forward Patrick Williams would be out for the remainder of the regular season due to a fractured wrist. That’s a literal “ouch” for a team that had gotten off to a 4-0 start. 

Chicago’s opponent on Saturday is Utah and the Jazz have also started 4-0 SU. That’s less surprising than the Bulls’ 4-0 start as the Jazz were universally projected to be one of the top teams in the West this season. Thus far, they’ve overwhelmed some pretty bad teams, beating Oklahoma City, Sacramento, Denver and Houston by an average of 18.2 points per game. Only one of those previous opponents (Denver) made the playoffs last season. I said going into that aforementioned Knicks-Bulls game that I wasn’t surprised Chicago was undefeated (based on who they’d played). I say the same for the Jazz here. 

Despite being off a loss and the Williams’ injury, I’m taking the Bulls plus the points in this one. Utah is the only unbeaten team left in the league - whether you are talking straight up or against the spread. It’s just a matter of time before a loss is hung on them in both regards. With Chicago’s only loss this season coming by a single point, I think they are the team that will - at the very least - be the first to cover against the Jazz this year. When Utah faced Denver earlier in the week, they had three days off to get ready. This is their second road game in three days. Take the points. 10* Chicago

10* Over Pacers/Nets (7:35 ET): All five Brooklyn games have stayed Under the total this year. That's certainly not what you'd expect from a team that led the NBA in scoring a season ago. I look for the trend to get snapped tonight when the Nets host Indiana. 

The L3 games have seen Brooklyn shoot just 43.7%, 42.6% and 38.8% from the field. The percentages from three-point range are obviously even lower, down around 28% overall during the three-game stretch. Again, this is simply not what you expect from this team. Kyrie Irving remains out, but with Kevin Durant and James Harden, the Nets should be scoring more. Harden has struggled as he continues to work his way back from the hamstring injury that he suffered in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. He’s averaging just 16.6 PPG, very “un-Harden like.” I think it’s only a matter of time before he and the Nets get on track offensively. How about tonight? They’ve yet to score more than 114 points in a game this season. Last year, they averaged 118.6 PPG. 

As for Indiana, they too have underperformed of late. At 1-4, they’re off to their worst start in six seasons. That includes an 0-3 record on the road after losing 118-100 to Toronto on Wednesday. After scoring 122 and 134 points in the first two games, the Pacers have averaged just 103.6 PPG the last three. They should easily top that number this evening and shoot better than either of Brooklyn’s last two opponents did. Domantas Sabonis, a 21.6 points per game scorer, attempted just four shots in Toronto. Look for a big bounce back game from him tonight. 10* Over Pacers/Nets

10* New York (8:05 ET): One of the big early season winners looks to be Chicago, who is 4-0 for the first time since the halcyon days of Air Jordan. But let’s “pump the breaks” just a little bit as the Bulls have beaten the lowly Pistons twice as well as the Pelicans and Raptors. It was a three-point win in Toronto, which was enough to cover the spread (Bulls were -2) there, and it’s another short spread tonight for a team that’s not just 4-0 SU but also 4-0 ATS. However, this is where I think the streak comes to an end. 

The Knicks are off to a 3-1 SU start (also 3-1 ATS), their lone loss coming at home to Orlando of all teams. I happened to fade NY in that one defeat. But give them credit for bouncing back Tuesday night against Philadelphia for an emphatic 112-99 win. That ended a 15-game losing streak to the 76ers, so the win was more significant than normal. The key here is that the Knicks are averaging 118.8 PPG so far. While Chicago is allowing just 97.5 PPG, again, look at who they’ve played. 

The Bulls did lead the Raptors by as many as 20 points Tuesday, so the final score was somewhat misleading. However, I still am confident that their 4-0 SU/ATS run comes to an end tonight. Before the win over Toronto, the Bulls were 0-4 SU/ATS the previous two seasons when coming off three consecutive SU wins. So this is very much “uncharted territory” for them. The Knicks, a playoff team last year, are still the more “reliable” commodity and a deeper team. 10* New York

10* Cleveland (10:35 ET): The Cavaliers are competing for HC Bernie Bickerstaff as they’ve pulled B2B upsets, beating Atlanta and Denver. They beat the spread by a combined 35 points in those two wins, yet are still pretty sizable underdogs for tonight’s visit to the Clippers. This Los Angeles team, which is without Kawhi Leonard and several other key players (all injured), just picked up its first win of the season Monday when they crushed Portland 116-86 here at home. But I don’t think we’ll see anything close to a repeat of that performance here tonight. 

In addition to Leonard being out indefinitely, the Clips have yet to get any minutes this season from Serge Ibaka or Jason Preston. Marcus Morris is also questionable with a knee injury after missing the Portland game. Paul George has picked up the slack by averaging 28.7 PPG, but I don’t think the team can count on Luke Kennard shooting as well as he did on Monday when he matched a career-high with six three-pointers. Nor can LA count on Cleveland shooting as poorly as Portland did that day. The Blazers went 8 for 37 from behind the arc in that game.

The Cavs pulled their two upsets thanks to some solid play on the defensive end. They held both the Hawks and Nuggets under 100 points. At the offensive end, the Cavs have had a different leading scorer in all four games. Is this a great team or even one that will make the playoffs? Probably not. But they’ve shown they’ve got the “goods” to at least stick within the number against a Clippers team that isn’t as good as it’s been in years’ past. Take the points in this one. 10* Cleveland

8* Portland (10:05 ET): The Trail Blazers are coming off an embarrassing 30-point loss at the Clippers Monday night. Even though it’s still early in the season, they can ill-afford anything close to a repeat of that performance as they host Memphis tonight on ESPN. The Blazers have dropped two of three so far, but did blow out the reigning Western Conference Champs (Phoenix) here at home over the weekend. I don’t think it’s asking too much for them to bounce back and win at home. 

Memphis 2-1 SU and has covered the spread in every game. They are coming off their first loss of the season, 121-118 to the Lakers on Sunday. Though the Grizzlies have been off for two days, this marks their third consecutive road game and they are also in Golden State tomorrow night. Ja Morant has been excellent, averaging 35 points and eight assists per game. But can he keep up THOSE kind of numbers? Probably not. Note that the Grizz have been behind at halftime each of the last two games. 

I’m expecting a big bounce back game from Damian Lillard tonight after he missed all eight three-point attempts against the Clippers. Also, Portland turned the ball over 30 times in that game. Lillard has had a cold start to the season, shooting just 36 percent and averaging 17.0 PPG. My guess is he’s going to be highly motivated going against Morant. The Blazers are traditionally a strong home team and seeing them lay such a short number, I can’t help but think we’re getting a “discount” in this one. 8* Portland

10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): As we all anticipated, it’s been a rough start to the season for OKC. The Thunder are 0-3 - both SU and ATS - and every loss has been by 12 points or more. But, even by their low standard, a fourth straight double digit loss to start the season seems unlikely. You just don’t see that very often. So I’ll call for a “circle the wagons” type performance tonight at home and take the points. 

Golden State is 3-0 SU and covered the spread in two of the wins. I took them on Opening Night when they “upset” the Lakers 121-114 as 3.5 point dogs. From there, they’ve since defeated the Clippers 115-103 and the Kings 119-107. In both instances, the Warriors were three-point favorites. Now they face their largest spread of the season. Oddsmakers are calling for a margin of victory that they’ve achieved only once thus far.

The Warriors did defeat the Kings by 12 points on Sunday, but that was a game where they led by only two going into the fourth quarter. Steph Curry has been a bit inconsistent, scoring 45 points in the win against the Clippers but making just 6 of 23 three-point attempts in the other two games. The way I look at things, it’s very hard for a team to go four straight games without being competitive. The Thunder have shot 40.6% overall and 26.6% from three in the first three games. Those numbers are bound to improve and I believe they will tonight. 10* Oklahoma City

10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Playing without Zion Williamson (out indefinitely with a foot injury), the Pelicans are off to an 0-3 SU start. But despite a horrid shooting night on Saturday, they still managed to cover the spread here in Minnesota. They shot 34.8% from the field and were 9 of 40 from three-point range in the 96-89 loss to the T’wolves. Not to mention they turned the ball over a franchise record 30 times! But New Orleans was a 7.5-point dog in that one, so they left with the cash. I anticipate the same thing will happen tonight. Take the points.

While it was just a half-point cover on Saturday, you’ve got to figure the Pelicans are going to shoot the ball better this evening. Devonte Graham and Nickeil Alexander-Walker were the primary offenders, combining to shoot a horrendous 3 of 23 from three-point range. You’ve got to figure that duo will be much better tonight AND the number of turnovers will be cut down significantly. In the Pelicans’ previous game, Graham and Alexander-Walker were 9 of 17 from behind the arc. 

Because they are still winless, expect New Orleans to come out “hungry” on Monday. They did not get off to a good start to Saturday’s game, which was the second night of a back to back for them. Minnesota is 2-0 SU with the other win coming against a rebuilding Houston team. It’s fairly shocking to see the T’wolves favored in the first three games of the season. I don’t think they’re a very good basketball team and the defensive numbers we’ve seen so far will not be sustained. 10* New Orleans

8* Over Pistons/Hawks (7:35 ET): Atlanta’s first two opponents combined to shoot just 37.4% overall and 28.2% from three. You’ve got to figure that won’t hold up. Also, they only scored 95 points themselves in a surprising loss to Cleveland on Saturday night. A return home should lead to noticeable uptick in scoring. In the first game, the Hawks scored 113 points and easily defeated the Dallas Mavericks. They are big favorites here over the Pistons and I expect this game to go well Over the total. 

Detroit has played two low-scoring games thus far, both against Chicago. Neither time were the Pistons able to break 90 points. That’s just sad. The first game vs. the Bulls saw them shoot 40% and score 88 points. A visit to the Windy City saw declines down to 38.6% shooting and 82 points. Through two games, the Pistons are a horrible 19.6% from three-point range. These numbers can only improve and I think they will tonight - substantially - as the Hawks were already set to regress defensively from the first two games.

With these teams combining to go 4-0 Under thus far, it’s no shock that the total is low. But it’s too low. Atlanta averaged 113.7 PPG at home last season. They were right at that number in the season opener vs. Dallas. If they were to again finish near that average (very reasonable assumption) then all we’d need is 100 points from the Pistons. Again, that sounds reasonable. Trae Young did not shoot well against Cleveland nor the last time he faced Detroit. That’s about to change. The Over is 10-1 the L11 meetings between these teams in Atlanta. 8* Over Pistons/Hawks

8* Orlando (7:05 ET): A young Magic team that doesn’t have a single starter over the age of 23 has gotten off to an 0-2 start. Both losses have been blowouts. First, they fell by 26 to the Spurs. Then it was by 25 to the team they’ll face again Sunday, the Knicks. Against San Antonio, Orlando was at least competitive for most of the first half. The same cannot be said for Friday’s game with the Knicks where many fans in their own building were cheering for the road team. But I expect this one to be closer. Take the points. 

New York set a team record for most made threes in a game with 24 on Friday. That is not going to be replicated. The Knicks went to double overtime in their first game, winning a wild one, 138-134 over Boston. So they are 2-0 for the first time since 2012. Do I expect them to win this game? Yes. But covering a double digit spread is a different matter. The line closed at -8 for Friday’s game with the Magic. 

Now the linesmakers obviously had to account for the change in home court advantage as well as the final margin from Friday. But this looks like a classic overreaction. Orlando isn’t going to have a great year, but they will be desperate to avoid a third straight double digit loss to open the season. The Knicks are a team I expect to regress a bit this year as they can’t count on holding opponents to the lowest 3PT FG% in the league again like they did last season. 8* Orlando

9* Toronto (7:35 ET): Boston lost a tough one on Wednesday, dropping their first game in OT to the Knicks by a score of 138-134. Jaylen Brown, despite spending the majority of the previous 10 days in quarantine (COVID-19), scored 46 points for the Celtics. But obviously those went to waste. Jayson Tatum did not shoot the ball well at all, going 7 for 30 from the field including 2 of 15 from three-point range. The Celtics now turn around and host another division rival, that being Toronto. I think the spread is too high here. 

The Raptors also lost their first game, albeit in much lower-scoring fashion compared to the Celtics. They went down 98-83 at home to the Wizards. As you can tell from the score, it was not a banner shooting night from the NBA’s Canadian contingent. They made only 30.9% of their field goal attempts and were a dreadful 7 of 34 from three-point range. You have to figure - even with leading scorer Pascal Siakam sidelined - that we will see better shooting tonight. 

Even with Siakam hurt and Kyle Lowry traded in the offseason, I think there's a case that Toronto will be better than it was last season. Despite going 27-45 SU in 2020-21, the Raptors were only outscored by 0.4 PPG. They were essentially playing to the level of a .500 team before the bottom dropped out at the end of the season and they lost their last seven games (injuries). This is a revenge game for them after being swept in LY’s season series. I look for this to be a close game that comes down to the wire. 9* Toronto

10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): The Bucks began the defense of their NBA Championship with a convincing 127-104 victory over Brooklyn on Opening Night. What was so impressive about that is they won by 23 despite the Nets shooting 53.1% from three-point range! And it’s not like the Bucks were exactly “on fire” from behind the arc; they made just 17 of 45 attempts. But they had 21 more FG attempts than Brooklyn did and Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 32-14-7 and shot 12/25 from the floor. 

This is Miami’s season opener. They come into 2021-22 with some new faces, most notably Kyle Lowry, who they obtained in trade with Toronto. He joins Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo as the three cornerstones of the team. The Heat are hoping Lowry helps them move up the Eastern Conference standings after a sixth place finish last year. But this is a tough first game against the team that swept them in the first round of last year’s playoffs. Three of those four games were decided by double digits. I don’t think the Heat are THAT much better now than they were in May. 

The Heat did not have a particularly impressive net efficiency rating or point differential last season. They very much were a slightly above average team. The Bucks had the East’s best point differential and obviously went on to win the whole thing. Seeing as the better team already has a game under its belt, I consider that to be a pretty significant advantage for Thursday night’s game. The Bucks are likely to shoot better here than they did on Tuesday, which is a frightening proposition for Miami. 10* Milwaukee

10* Under Pacers/Hornets (7:05 ET): Two Eastern Conference teams that I expect to end up fighting for play-in spots come playoff time are Indiana and Charlotte. That shouldn’t be considered a very “hot” take. After all, both these teams found themselves in the play-in round last year. Neither made it out with the Hornets losing to the Pacers 144-117 to end their season. Then Indiana could not get by Washington, losing 142-115, which ended their season. It should be a much lower-scoring game to start the season this year. Take the Under on Wednesday.

Indiana has finished between fourth and ninth place in the Eastern Conference each of the last six seasons. That’s a nice run of consistency, but they’ve never advanced past the first round of the playoffs during that time. The hope is that new HC Rick Carlisle can take them past mediocrity. He’s got some good pieces with Sabonis, Turner, Brogdon, LeVert and Warren forming a solid starting five. There’s not much depth though. What Carlisle needs to work on - and probably will - is the defense. The Pacers gave up 115.7 PPG, the same number they averaged themselves. That led to the highest Over percentage in the league. I expect more Unders in 2021-22. 

Compared to Indiana, Charlotte games were much lower-scoring last season. The Hornets only averaged 109.6 PPG, which put them in the bottom third of the league. Defensively, the key to their success is playing more zone than every other team. The zone clearly bothers opponents. It should bother Indiana, who will be without Warren and LeVert. But I worry about the Hornets offensively as their leading scorer last year was Terry Rozier. We saw what happened LY in the play-in game when the threes weren’t falling. The Under is 13-3 their L16 games as a home favorite. 10* Under Pacers/Hornets

8* Golden State (10:05 ET): The Warriors’ 2020-21 season came to an end in the play-in round and the Lakers were partly responsible for that. The league’s very first play-in game saw these teams match up and it was LA winning 103-100 on a last second LeBron James’ three-pointer. Golden State would get a second chance to advance to the playoffs, but also lost that one, 117-112 to Memphis (in overtime). Still, last season was an improvement for the Dubs after plummeting to the worst record in the league two years ago. 

Meanwhile, there was only one way to go for the Lakers after winning the NBA Championship in 2020. As is obvious by the fact they were in the play-in round, LA regressed heavily last season. Only three players are back from LY’s team, two of them being LeBron James and Anthony Davis. So I would not count on a fast start from “Showtime” in 2021-22. LeBron is now 36 years old and has played the second most minutes in NBA history. For what it’s worth, with all the new faces, the Lakers were 0-6 SU in the preseason. 

Golden State was 5-0 SU in its preseason, two of those wins coming against the Lakers! It is clear that the Warriors are getting back to the mentality that brought them multiple NBA Championships and that mentality involves shooting a lot of threes. We started to see it at the end of last year’s regular season. Steph Curry scored 41 in the final preseason game and with him and Draymond Green on the court at the same time, the Dubs destroyed opponents (provided James Wiseman was also NOT on the court). The revenge angle is big here and I don’t think Russell Westbrook is ready to be a difference maker for the Lakers just yet. Take the points. 8* Golden State

10* Under Nets/Bucks (7:35 ET): The two top teams in the Eastern Conference, if not the entire league, square off on Opening Night as the reigning NBA Champion Bucks host the Nets. Entering this season, Brooklyn has the best odds of winning the NBA Finals. But they are also dealing with the issue of Kyrie Irving not being available until he gets vaccinated. They still have the luxury of Kevin Durant and James Harden being on the roster though. Irving and Harden both missing three games in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals had a lot to do with Milwaukee overcoming an 0-2 hole to win that series in seven games. 

That ECF was much lower-scoring than anticipated, given these were the two highest scoring teams in the league last season. Only one of the seven games went Over the total and that was Game 7, which went to OT. In fact, the Under is 7-1-1 the L9 meetings between these teams including a perfect 5-0 when they play here in Milwaukee. 

I’m going to say that they go Under again here in the season opener. Neither team figures to be in “peak offensive form” for the first game. Somewhat incredibly, the losing team did not even score 100 points in four of the seven games in LY’s ECF. It may not be THAT low-scoring this time around, but this is a high O/U for the first game and I just can’t see this one reaching it. 10* Under Nets/Bucks

10* Under Suns/Bucks (9:05 ET): The Bucks have valiantly fought back from an 0-2 series deficit to come within one win of their first NBA Championship since 1971. That ‘71 Finals victory happens to be the franchise’s lone NBA Championship. I’ve got to say that I’m happy to see them in this position as they were my call for both Games 4 & 5. Each time they battled back from a significant deficit. It was a nine-point 4Q deficit that they faced in Game 4. The deficit was much larger in Game 5 (16 pts), but that came early and a big 2Q resulted in them leading most of the way. Of course, that was my 10* Game of the Year. 

With the Bucks having come from behind to win each of the last two games, I’m a little skeptical of laying the points here. Something I said going into Game 5 was that it was pretty surprising Milwaukee won Game 4 considering they were outshot 51.3 to 40.2 percent. I didn’t think the Suns would have such a large edge in FG% again and that proved to be the case even though they actually shot better overall (55.2%) and were 13 of 19 from three-point range. But Milwaukee shot 57.5% overall and was 50% (14 of 28) from three-point range! 

I can’t possibly see either team matching those kinds of percentages here in Game 6. Thus, I’m taking the Under. This is the highest O/U line we’ve seen so far for this series, which does make sense coming off the highest scoring game of the series. But the teams absolutely will NOT combine to go 27 of 47 from behind the arc again. In Game 4, they were 14 of 52. And shooting a combined 56% overall from the field again is totally out of the question. Outside of Devin Booker, the rest of the Suns have scored just 140 points total in the L2 games. The number of PPG allowed by both teams in this postseason does not exceed 105.5. 10* Under Suns/Bucks

10* Milwaukee (9:05 ET): Zig-zag theory be damned, I’m fading Phoenix again in Game 5. While it was a somewhat fortuitous cover on the Bucks in Game 4 (they trailed by as many as nine in the 4Q), the key here is that the surprisingly large edge in FG% that the Suns enjoyed in the last game simply isn’t likely to be present again. They shot 51.3 percent from the floor in Game 4 - while Milwaukee shot just 40.2 percent - and still LOST. Even though they are on the road again, the Bucks shooting is likely to improve here and that makes taking the points seem like the logical option to me. 

Now Suns’ fans are obviously going to decry the foul trouble that Devin Booker was in throughout Game 4. Booker still ended up scoring 42 points, but spent long stretches on the bench due to the aforementioned foul trouble. Honestly, he should have fouled out of the game with a few minutes left. It’s very likely that Booker ends up not being whistled for as many fouls at home, but I don’t see him going for 40+ points again. The fact no one else on the team contributed more than 15 points in Game 4 should be worrisome to Suns fans. I just don’t see the team shooting as well as it did overall in the last game. 

Kris Middleton was the Game 4 hero for Milwaukee, who now looks to end an 0-5 SU/ATS streak in Phoenix. Middleton scored 40 Wednesday night, a number that teammate Giannis Antetokounmpo exceeded each of the previous two contests. Right now, I simply have more faith in the Bucks’ top scorers being able to collectively lift the team up (don’t forget Jrue Holiday) compared to their Suns’ counterparts. Milwaukee has to be pleased with the fact they have this series tied despite Phoenix finishing with a higher FG% in every game. Eventually, the Bucks are going to shoot better. I’ll bank on that happening tonight. 10* Milwaukee

10* Milwaukee (9:05 ET): Down 0-2 in the series, the Bucks got the win they desperately needed in Game 3 and did so in emphatic fashion. Leading virtually the entire way, they had no problem covering the 4.5-point spread. It wound up 120-100 with Giannis Antetokounmpo scoring 41 points. The home team is now 3-0 SU/ATS in this series. Phoenix has not lost B2B games since the first round series vs. the Lakers and is 13-3 SU in its L16 games. They are 2-0 ATS off a SU loss during that time. But Milwaukee is very tough at home where they are 34-11 SU for the season with just one loss in the playoffs. I’m laying the points in Game 4. 

Remember when it was thought that an injured Antetokounmpo might not be a factor in this series? Neither do I. Kidding, but Antetokounmpo is off B2B 40+ point games. He went for 20-17 in Game 1. Clearly, he’s not hobbled by his left knee injury any longer. At home, he can expect help from Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, both of whom had good Game 3 performances. That duo combined to go 14 of 28 from the field and 8 of 17 from three-point range. The team averages 119.3 PPG at home. I expect a similar offensive effort to Game 3. 

Phoenix did not have a strong offensive effort in Game 3. Devin Booker really struggled, going 3 of 14 from the field, including 1 of 7 from three-point range. He finished with only 10 points. Booker figures to better those numbers in Game 4, but I also don’t think the Suns will shoot 48.2% from the floor again like they did Sunday. Milwaukee seems to have a huge edge in the paint and they outscored Phoenix by 15 pts from behind the arc in G3. Look for the home team to win again. 10* Milwaukee

10* Under Suns/Bucks (8:05 ET): The first two games of this year’s NBA Finals both went Over the total as have all four meetings this season between the Suns and Bucks. But Phoenix probably isn’t going to shoot as well in Game 3 now that the series moves to Milwaukee. The Suns were 48.9% overall from the field in Game 2 and made 20 threes. They aren’t going to match this numbers tonight. It definitely felt like Game 2 “should have” stayed Under as there were “only” 200 points scored with 4:10 remaining. But plenty of late free throws helped “seal the deal.” Look for this to be a lower-scoring game. 

Milwaukee had been 5-0 Under this postseason when trailing in the series. They still are allowing just 105.2 PPG in the playoffs. They’ve played eight games at home and allowed less than 100 in regulation six times. Phoenix has seen two players get hurt in the first two games - Dario Saric and Torrey Craig - so their lack of depth could become a problem. Role players typically don’t do as well on the road, so Mikal Bridges isn’t going to match the 27 points he scored in Game 2 here. Again, the team’s three-point shooting should take a major “hit” compared to what we saw in Game 2. 

Considering we didn’t even know if he was going to play in this series, Giannis Antetokounmpo has been rather remarkable for the Bucks. He went for 42 in Game 2 after a 20-17 performance in Game 1. I definitely don’t see him duplicating the previous game’s performance. Phoenix has allowed only 102.4 PPG in the playoffs and is right on that exact number the L5 games. The Bucks have only scored 108 and 105. This figures to be the lowest-scoring game of the series so far as the Under is 4-1 the L5 times Phoenix has been a dog. 10* Under Suns/Bucks

10* Milwaukee (9:05 ET): Even with the return of Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks could not overcome Chris Paul and the Suns in Game 1 Tuesday night. Antetokounmpo didn’t just play, he contributed a strong effort with 20 points and 17 rebounds. Teammate Khris Middleton had 29 points. But where the Bucks were really hurt was the free throw line. Not only did they have 10 fewer attempts, they had 16 fewer makes. Phoenix was 25 of 26 from the charity stripe while Milwaukee was 9 of 16. That difference was basically identical to the difference in the final score. I look for a much tighter Game 2 and possible Bucks’ outright win. Take the points. 

Following their last three playoff losses, the Bucks have come back to win and cover the spread in the next game. All three wins were by double digits and the average margin of victory was 20.0 PPG! Now every one of those games was played in Milwaukee. But the Bucks have proven they can win on the road. They did so in Game 7 vs. Brooklyn in Round 2 and took two of three in Atlanta in the Eastern Conference Finals. While the Suns have opened the last two series with B2B wins, Game 2 vs. the Clippers was decided by just a single point (on a last second alley-oop). 

Phoenix lost its backup center (Dario Sakic) to a season-ending ACL injury in Game 1. While they were able to persevere and win the game, depth is now a bit of a concern. With Antetokounmpo back, this spread seems a bit high. I know he played in Game 1 and the Bucks still lost, but this team is 10-4 SU off a DD loss this season and 4-1 when trailing in a playoff series. I see Jrue Holiday scoring more than 10 points (his Gm 1 total) in Game 2. He missed all four three-point attempts. The Bucks are allowing just 104.5 PPG in the playoffs and I expect a better effort at the defensive end tonight. 10* Milwaukee

10* Atlanta (8:35 ET): This has become a difficult series to handicap as each team’s best player is injured and we don't know (for sure) what their statuses are for Game 6. Giannis Antetokounmpo is currently listed as doubtful for Milwaukee while Trae Young is questionable for Atlanta. What we do know however is that when each team has stepped up without its star player, it has been at home. The Hawks have won 15 of their last 18 home games going back to the end of the regular season and facing elimination, they are my call here (minus the points). Consider it a bonus if Young suits up. 

Young is more likely to play than Antetokounmpo tonight, not just because of the severity of injuries, but also because Atlanta is trying to stay alive. But it must be pointed out that the team had its best shooting night in a while, minus Young, the last time they played here at home. They basically dominated the entire game and won by 22. That was with Antetokounmpo playing more than half. The Bucks got 100+ points from their starters in Game 5, but asking for that again is probably a case of “asking for too much.” The reserves only scoring 17 in the last game is cause for concern as they now have to go on the road. 

Atlanta had its best overall shooting night of the series in Game 4, then had its best three-point shooting night in Game 5. So they’ve proven they can take care of business without Young. The same can be said for Milwaukee w/o Giannis due to what happened in Game 5, but the fact the Hawks are back at home now is a big reason why I am on them. Also, they are 2-0 SU/ATS when trailing in the series during this postseason. Milwaukee has lost four of its last six games on the road. The Hawks have lost B2B games only two times in the playoffs. So look for them to force a Game 7. 10* Atlanta

10* Under Hawks/Bucks (8:35 ET): This has become an incredibly difficult game - and series - to handicap with the unknown statuses of Trae Young and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Young missed Game 4, but it turns out that the Hawks did not need him as they shot 50% from the field and rolled to a 110-88 win. Things took a rather dramatic turn in the 3Q when Antetokounmpo went down with a knee injury and the Bucks never recovered. His status is more in doubt for Game 5 than is Young’s, but there’s a chance neither even plays. That’s a lot of missing offensive production for two teams that have already gone Under in three straight games. 

I was dead wrong about the Hawks going into Game 4. The numbers showed that their offensive efficiency went way down without Young, but they wound up turning in just their fifth 110+ point game of the playoffs. Lou Williams stepped up big time, but I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance from him. Clint Capella is also questionable for tonight and Bogdan Bogdanovic is dealing with a knee injury. On the road again, I just don’t see how Atlanta can match its offensive performance from the last game - even if Young were to return. 

The Antetokounmpo injury seems to loom largest though as there’s no replacing him for Milwaukee. It would be up to Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, both of whom are known to “step it up” at home. There’s no doubt (in my mind) that the Bucks are going to score more tonight than they did in Game 4, but it would still take a pretty substantial increase for this game to go Over the total. The Under is 10-4 for the Bucks in all playoff games while it’s 11-5 for the Hawks. So the teams have combined to go Under 70% of the time including each of the last three games. How about one more?  10* Under Hawks/Bucks

10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): The Clippers lost their first three home playoff games (all to Dallas) before winning the next five. That streak came to an end in Game 4 of this series, a spot I faded them, as they lost an ugly 84-80 contest. But if nothing else, the Clippers have proven themselves resilient throughout this postseason. Everyone knows they are the first team in NBA Playoff history to overcome multiple 0-2 series deficits in the same postseason. Well, now they are trying to overcome a 3-1 series deficit against the Suns. They took the first step in doing so, winning Game 5 116-102 as a 5.5-point dog. After cashing them in that spot, I’ll take them again as they return home for Game 6. 

Phoenix is averaging just over 100 PPG (100.4 to be exact) in this series. That number gets a lot lower if you take out their 120-114 win in Game 1. As I mentioned in the Game 5 analysis, despite being down in the series, the Clippers have actually outscored the Suns. Their margin of victory in Game 3 (14 points) exceeded the combined margin of victory in Phoenix’s three wins (11). Now, after Game 5, the Clippers have actually outscored the Suns by a total of 17 points across the five games. Had they properly defended that out of bounds play at the end of Game 2, they would be the ones with a chance to move on to the NBA Finals tonight.

The Clippers are 8-3 ATS this postseason when trailing in the series. They are now 3-0 ATS when facing elimination. The Suns averaged just 88 PPG in the two prior games here in LA and has not scored more than 104 in any of the last four games. With Kawhi Leonard still out, both Paul George and Reggie Jackson have stepped up big time. For the Suns, Chris Paul has not been good since returning from his COVID-related absence. He’s 0 for 9 from three-point range in the L2 games. The Suns are just 2-10 ATS their L12 road games vs. the Clippers. 10* LA Clippers

10* Milwaukee (8:35 ET): This series could be “all over but the shouting” if Trae Young is unable to go for Atlanta. Young, who is easily the best player for Atlanta, sprained his ankle near the end of the third quarter in Game 3 and was clearly affected by it. The Hawks were outscored 30-17 in the 4Q, which basically decided the game. An MRI revealed Young has a bone bruise in his right foot. His status for tonight is questionable and while I’m sure he’s going to want to go, just how effective can he be? Even with improved 3-point shooting in Game 3, the Hawks still lost by double digits. Lay the points here. 

Obviously, you have to be careful NOT to overreact to an injury. But it’s difficult to overstate what a loss Young would be for the Hawks. This is not like the Clippers, who have Paul George to “pick up the slack” without Kawhi Leonard. Even if he does play, will Young be able to attack with his patented “floaters?” Or will he be relegated to being a jump shooter? He’s had some dreadful shooting nights in these playoffs, including Game 2 of this series. Milwaukee is a very good defensive team as they’ve allowed just 102.4 PPG in the playoffs. Over its last five games, all with Young, Atlanta has topped 103 just once. 

The Hawks have not been favored to win a game since Game 4 of the first round. So it’s impressive enough that they’ve got this far. I did take them in both Games 1 and 3 of this series (got a win and a loss there), but my feeling now is that their run is likely over and this series is probably ending in five games. Atlanta’s three-point shooting had been really bad for several games before improving on Sunday. But with Young injured and possibly out, it’s going to decline greatly. Believe it or not, but this is the first time the Bucks are ahead in a series since the first round. They went 3-0 ATS vs. Miami once they grabbed the series lead. 10* MIlwaukee

10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): The Clippers have made a habit of climbing out of precarious positions this postseason, but the current one is the most precarious they have been in so far. An ugly 84-80 loss in Game 4 has them down 3-1 in this Western Conference Finals and facing elimination. Even though they’ve lost the first two games of all three series, the Clips have faced elimination just twice before. Those were Games 6 & 7 in the first round against Dallas and both saw them turn in outstanding efforts. Granted, they had Kawhi Leonard back then, but I think they’ve got enough left to at least still cover tonight. Take the points. 

Phoenix overcame some awful shooting, including 4 of 20 from 3-point range, to win Game 4. They are now hitting just over 25% from behind the arc over the L3 games. You might be fearful that they are “due” to improve, but the same could be said for the Clippers, who were even more dreadful in the last game. They made only 32.5% from the field and were 5 of 31 from three-point range. They also missed 11 free throws, which was killer. Considering LA was #1 in the league from three-point range in the regular season, I think their shooting is set to improve more in this game. 

Even though Phoenix has won three of the four games, they’ve actually been outscored over the course of the series! They’ve yet to win a game by more than six points. Considering that and just how low scoring the series has been, taking the points seems like a real prudent move here. This series could easily be 2-2 right now had the Clippers properly defended the out of bounds play at the end of Game 2. They are 7-3 ATS when behind in the series this postseason and this could be only the 4th time all season that they’ve been an underdog of 5.5 or more points. 10* LA Clippers

10* Atlanta (8:35 ET): The Hawks are off a terrible loss in Game 2 as they were beaten by 34 points. It was 77-42 at halftime with the second quarter turning into a complete massacre as the Bucks outscored the Hawks 43-17. But now the Hawks get to come home where they have won 14 of their last 16 games. You’ve gotta think they’re shooting is going to improve as they made only 25% of their three-point shots in Milwaukee. Trae Young in particular is due for a bounce back as he went 1 for 8 behind the arc in Game 2. That was after he had 48 points in Game 1. Take the points in Game 3. 

No one on the Hawks scored more than 15 points in Game 2, which is really unbelievable when you think about it. It’s not just Young who I see “raising his game” tonight, but the supporting cast as well. Remember that role players often perform much better at home. There are four other double digit scorers on Atlanta besides Young (Collins, Bogdanovic, Gallinari, Huerter) and you should expect at least one of them to step up here. This team is 20-6 ATS its L26 home games and 3-1 ATS off a SU loss in the playoffs. 

Milwaukee shot 52.5% in Game 2 as they were able to consistently get better looks. But just as Atlanta’s production from its supporting cast should increase in this game, the Bucks’ supporting cast production should decrease. Friday was their highest scoring game in the postseason since Game 2 of the Miami series (Round 1). They never scored more than 108 in any of the four games at Brooklyn in Round 2. Jrue Holiday scored 55 points in the first two games of this series, an average he will not maintain moving forward, and most of Kris Middleton’s big games come at home. 10* Atlanta

10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): The Clippers won Game 3 at home and hope a familiar pattern continues tonight as they look to even this Western Conference Finals up at two games apiece. As you know, the Clippers have lost the first two games of all three of their playoff series. In each of the previous two instances, they have battled back to win Games 3 and 4. In the case of the Utah series, they won four straight after being down 0-2. No team in NBA Playoff history had previously EVER won multiple series in the same postseason when falling behind 0-2. So the Clippers are really defying the odds and doing so without Kawhi Leonard makes it all the more impressive. 

But I think the pattern is going to be broken tonight by Phoenix. The Suns certainly won’t shoot as poorly here as they did in Game 3 when they made only 38.9% from the field, including 10 of 32 from three-point range. After missing the first two games due to quarantine, Chris Paul returned for the Suns in Game 3 and did not shoot well (5 for 19). Nor did Devin Booker, who was 5 of 21. Booker had 40 points in the Game 1 victory, but has struggled with his shot the L2 games. Do not be surprised if he has a big game tonight. The Suns are 6-3 ATS off a double-digit loss this season. 

With their shooting likely to improve from Game 3, hopefully we’ll also be seeing a typical effort from the Suns at the defensive end as well. In the playoffs, they have held the opposition to just 102.4 PPG on 42.9% shooting. That’s pretty impressive in the “modern NBA.” The potential loss of backup PG Cameron Payne is a bit of a concern, but the Clippers are reeling more when Leonard still out and Marcus Morris being listed as a “gametime decision.” LA has no answer for DeAndre Ayton inside and Paul George’s minutes are really starting to add up. Might fatigue become a factor for George? The Suns have lost B2B games only four times this season. 10* Phoenix

8* 1st Half LA Clippers (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a first half play only. You’d be hard pressed to find a situation where a team is going to come out more motivated than when down 0-2 in the series and playing at home. That’s the situation the Clippers are in, once again. I made them my top play for the entire 2nd round when they faced this very situation against Utah. They won that game 132-106 and enjoyed a sizable halftime advantage. I also took them when they were down 0-2 in the Dallas series and they won that game 118-108. Not as confident this time about winning the game, but I definitely expect LA to be leading Phoenix at halftime tonight. 

This series could easily be tied 1-1, but Paul George missed a couple of late free throws (after the Clippers got a gift call) and then the Suns pulled off the miraculous out of bounds play to win Game 2. That was the ninth straight win for Phoenix, who is shooting better than 50% in the series. Even if Chris Paul plays tonight, I don’t see that kind of shooting from them tonight. The Clippers have shot well from three-point range in this series and I do see that continuing considering they were #1 in the league in 3PT % during the regular season. 

Since 2005, NBA home teams down 0-2 in the series and playing Game 3 at home have covered the first half line roughly two-thirds of the time. So history, not just their own, is on the Clippers side tonight. The fact they have fallen into their third straight 0-2 series hole is a little shocking, but I’ve got no doubt that they’re coming out hot early. They’ve actually trailed the Suns at the half each of the last four times they’ve faced them. But three of those four deficits were three points or smaller. 8* 1st Half LA Clippers

10* Over Suns/Clippers (9:05 ET): Down 0-2 (again!), the Clippers are going to come out desperate here in Game 3 at home. Expect them to lean heavily on the three-point shot as they’ve already attempted 81 in the first two games and made over 40%. That percentage might sound high, but this was the #1 three-point shooting team in the regular season at over 41%. So they’re actually “right on par.” This is a team that averages 116.4 PPG at home. In the last four home games, all wins, they’ve averaged 126.75 PPG. So look for this one to go Over the total. 

Phoenix has also shot the ball well in the first two games. They finished at a blistering 55.1% in Game 1, which I did not think they would match in Game 2. They didn’t, but still shot 50% from the field. One area where they did struggle though was from behind the three-point arc. They made just 6 of 26 attempts. Devin Booker saw his point total cut in half from Game 1 as he finished with only 20 points in Game 2 (on 5 of 16 shooting). I would expect an increase in points from Booker tonight and for the Suns to shoot better from three-point range. 

Chris Paul is now listed as probable for tonight after missing the first two games. Regardless if he plays or not, Paul’s backup (Cameron Payne) is probably going to do well. He had 29 points and nine assists in Game 2. If Paul does play here, Payne is likely to have a big game playing against the Clipper second unit. If Paul doesn’t suit up, well, Payne has already proven he can step up. Prior to stealing Game 2, the Suns had scored 113 or more points in seven straight games. They are 25-12-1 Over L38 games and this one should go Over as well. 10* Over Suns/Clippers

10* Atlanta (8:35 ET): They were outscored by 20 points in the series, but the Hawks won in seven games against the 76ers to advance to just their second Conference Final in the last 50 years. Three of the four wins were by four points or less, two of them saw them rally from a deficit of at least 16 points. After coming out red hot in Game 1 at Philadelphia, the Hawks never really regained their shooting touch, which makes the series win all the more improbable. I realize that none of this sounds like a “ringing endorsement,” but I’ll call for Atlanta’s shooting to improve and for them to cover the spread in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. 

Just like Atlanta, Milwaukee needed to win a Game 7 on the road to get here. But the Bucks are now the favorites to win the NBA Championship after getting by Brooklyn and they’ve got the home court advantage. They’ve yet to lose a home game in the postseason (5-0 SU) and don’t forget they swept Miami in Round 1. However, the Hawks have traveled well in the playoffs, winning five of their seven road games against the Sixers and Knicks. I don’t think the one extra day of rest is going to matter much for Milwaukee. In fact, they are just 1-4-1 ATS their L6 games on 3+ days rest. 

The key for me here is that the Hawks’ shooting HAS to improve after what we saw in the last five games (42.9 FG%). That they won a Game 7 on the road while shooting 25.9% from three and their best player (Trae Young) going 5 for 23 overall was a minor miracle. This is a team that shoots 36.8% from 3-point range for the year. They’ve been below that average each of the L5 games, so they are due to regain their touch, Young in particular. Something that most don’t know is that the Hawks have the best SU record in the Eastern Conference (31-14) since Nate McMillan took over. Take the points. 10* Atlanta

8* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): I passed on Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals as both teams came in on ATS win streaks (Clippers 4-0 L4, Suns 7-0 L7) but minus big stars. I was also unsure on how to handicap the difference in rest. What ended up happening was the Suns winning 120-114 and just barely covering the four-point spread (thanks to last second free throws). After taking the “wait and see approach,” I’m fairly confident that Phoenix won’t be able to shoot 55.1% from the field again. So take the points as I don’t think the number should be higher here than it was for Game 1. 

The Clippers actually drained seven more threes compared to the Suns on Sunday. Typically that results in victory, but not for Ty Lue’s team as Phoenix was far better on its two-point attempts, going 36 of 57, which is a ridiculous 63.1%. Devin Booker had a massive game, scoring 40 points to go along with 13 rebounds and 11 assists. I’m pretty confident that Booker isn’t going to be that good again. The rest of the Suns team (sans Booker) attempted only two free throws in Game 1, which is odd. 

No Kawhi Leonard for the Clippers has meant Paul George stepping up. In the three game without Leonard, George has scored 37, 28 and 34 points. Remember that the Suns are playing without Chris Paul. The Clips are the first team in NBA history to win two series in the same postseason in which they lost the first two games. They don’t dare fall into an 0-2 hole for the third consecutive series. They’ve been good on the road so far, winning all three games in Dallas and then Game 5 in Utah. You have to think that Phoenix’s 8-0 ATS run is going to come to an end sooner rather than later. Take the points. 8* LA Clippers

10* Philadelphia (8:05 ET): While it’s come down to a winner take all Game 7, I feel that the 76ers have largely dominated this series. I took them in Game 6, which they obviously won, and will reiterate much of what I said in that analysis. They’ve now outscored by Atlanta by 27 points over the course of six games. All three Hawks’ wins have been by four points or less (10 total) and in two of them they had to erase a deficit of 18 points of greater. Since losing Game 1, Philadelphia has shot better than 40% from three-point range. I will lay the points in Game 7 with what I feel is the better team. 

When I (successfully) played Atlanta in Game 1, a lot of my rationale had to do with the knee injury suffered by 76ers’ MVP candidate Joel Embiid. Well, save for a terrible second half in Game 4, Embiid has shown no ill-effects from that knee injury. He has been the best player in the series, averaging more than 30 points per game. In the three games here at home, Embiid has averaged 38.7 PPG, scoring at least 37 every time. He did not get to the free throw line much in Game 6 (only 4 attempts), but I expect that number to improve rather dramatically in Game 7. As a team, Philly shot just 40.9% on Friday, another number that should rise here. 

The last five games have seen the Hawks average only 104.8 PPG on 43.1% shooting. Sadly (for them), I do not see those numbers going up much in this game. Trae Young basically kept them in Game 6 all by himself, scoring more than a third of the team’s total points. With Game 7 being on the road, it’s less likely that his “supporting cast” steps up. Atlanta has a losing road record this year. De’Andre Hunter is a big loss at the defensive end. For Philadelphia, Ben Simmons is going to easily top his sorry six-point effort from the last game and the Sixers’ starting five is likely to attempt more than 14 total FTs as well. This series should already be over, but at least 76ers’ fans can now watch the clincher in person. 10* Philadelphia

10* Under Bucks/Nets (8:35 ET): The home team being 6-0 straight up in this series is what will get the “lion’s share” of attention heading into this Game 7 battle. But don’t discount what has been going on from an O/U perspective. The series has been far lower scoring than expected (remember these teams were 1-2 in scoring during the regular season) with five of the six games staying Under by double digits. The only Over was in Game 5 and that one barely got Over. The other games have stayed Under by 17, 27, 66 (a record), 25 and 17 points. I don’t think the O/U is low enough here. Take the Under.

This Game 7 being on the road does no favors for Milwaukee. Of their 29 losses this year, 19 have come on the road. They are 0-5 SU this year in Brooklyn, including 0-3 in this series. Those three losses have seen them average just over 100 PPG. Over the L5 games, they have averaged just 98.2 PPG. Khris Middleton really bailed the Bucks out with a 38-point effort in Game 6. But he has shot only 32.3% from the floor in the three games in Brooklyn. Middleton’s likely drop in scoring here is a real problem when you consider his teammates were a combined 2 of 25 from three-point range in the last game.

We all know about the Under trend with Game 7’s in the NBA Playoffs. Since 2002-03, the Under is 36-22 in all Game 7’s including 22-7 in Round 2 or later. With five of the previous games in this series staying Under by 17 or more points and three of them not even hitting 200, there’s only one way to play this Game 7. Compared to Game 6, Brooklyn will limit Milwaukee’s number of fast break points. I don’t think Kevin Durant and the Nets will “go off” though as they’ve averaged just 101.1 points the L5 games. James Harden has only 21 pts in the two games since he returned. Kyrie Irving will be missed. 10* Under Bucks/Nets

8* Over Jazz/Clippers (10:05 ET): Injuries have played a vital role in this series. Mike Conley has yet to suit up in the second round for Utah while Donovan Mitchell continues to deal with an ankle injury. Things are more serious for the Clippers, who have lost Serge Ibaka and Kawhi Leonard. But they were the ones to step up in Game 5 with a 119-111 upset (as 8-point underdogs) and one more win would mean they’re on to the Conference Finals, a place no Clippers team has even been before. Despite these key injuries, I still see Game 6 going Over the total. Every game in the series has seen at least 221 total points scored.

I learned my lesson taking the Under in the last game. It actually was still in play late in the 4th quarter despite the teams combining for 125 points in the first half and 175 through three quarters. But it ended up being the second highest scoring game of the series. Maybe the Clippers don’t shoot 51% again without Leonard, but this was the league’s top three-point shooting team in the regular season and they’ve been above 40% in each of the L3 games. They are now back at home where theoretically the role players should shoot better. Even without Leonard, I still see the Clips getting to 110 points.

Utah was the league’s 2nd best three-point shooting team in the regular season. They put up 54 attempts in Game 5 and made 20. While it was their most 3PA in any game in the series, they previously made 20 on just 39 attempts in Game 2. This is a team that has five scorers averaging at least 15 PPG. One of them (Conley) is out, but Mitchell is averaging over 30 PPG in the postseason and Bojan Bogdanovic made nine threes in the last game for 32 points. The Jazz average 115 PPG on the road and should get to that number here. They are 8-2 Over in all playoff games. 8* Over Jazz/Clippers

10* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): It is almost incomprehensible to me that the 76ers are now trailing in this series. They’ve outscored Atlanta by 22 points. They’ve shot better than 50 percent from the field (51.3% to be exact) in the five games, including 46 of 104 (44%) from three-point range in the last four. One could argue that the series should actually be over, or at the very least it should be Philly leading 3-2 headed into Friday’s Game 6. But after blowing leads of 18 and 26 points in the L2 games, the Sixers now face elimination for the first time in these playoffs. While the last loss was completely demoralizing, I think they will step up to the challenge. Lay the points.

Both Philly wins have been by 16 points while Atlanta’s three have been by 10 points … total! Not since a shockingly good Game 1 performance (where I took them) has Atlanta enjoyed a double digit advantage in any game in this series. The 76ers have been up double digits in each of the last four games! But none of that matters now after they shockingly blew a 72-46 lead (at home!) with just over 20 minutes to go in Game 5. The past two games have seen the Sixers shoot substantially better than the Hawks. But they’ve taken 26 fewer FG attempts and struggled from the FT line. That’s how you blow 18+ point leads in consecutive games.

The good news from Game 5 - if you’re a Philly fan - is that Joel Embiid had 37 points. That was a nice bounce back from his 0 for 12 effort in the second half of Game 4. Seth Curry helped Embiid out with 36 points, a career playoff-high. But the rest of the team totaled only 33 points. Expect that number to rise in Game 6. Atlanta is without its best defender, DeAndre Hunter, which is eventually going to catch up with them. I realize the Hawks have won 14 of their last 15 home games. But the 76ers easily could have won both Games 3 and 4 here. They are 10-3 ATS this season off a SU loss as a favorite. They’ll stay alive. 10* Philadelphia

10* Milwaukee (8:35 ET): With the Bucks leading 74-57 in the third quarter of Game 5, I was feeling pretty good about having laid the points. Then Kevin Durant struck. But as great as Durant was, that was a Milwaukee gag job. The Bucks now return home facing another potential early postseason exit. But I’m laying the points again. Brooklyn is 0-4 straight up in Milwaukee this season. Kyrie Irving is out. James Harden was ineffective Tuesday night. Durant, coming off perhaps his best game EVER, won’t be that good again. 

Lost in the virtuoso performance from Durant (1st player to EVER do 45-15-10 in a playoff game) is that Harden simply wasn’t very good in his surprise return to the lineup. He finished with just five points on 1 of 10 shooting, including 0 of 8 from three-point range. Both Durant and Harden played 46+ minutes with the former going the full 48. That was certainly a curious decision from HC Steve Nash. I understand leaving Durant in, given how hot he was. But playing a hobbled Harden that long seems unwise. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo was clearly outshined by Durant, but did turn in his third straight game with 30+ points and 10+ rebounds. He came up small down the stretch, but it shouldn’t have come to that as the Bucks were up double digits most of the game. At home, with the season on the line, the Bucks should start to see their shots falling more. They’ve averaged just 98.8 PPG this series, on 43% shooting. They averaged 120.1 PPG during the regular season. In particular, the three-point shots should start to fall. We started to see that in Game 5 (13 of 32) and I think it continues here. 10* Milwaukee

10* Under Clippers/Jazz (10:05 ET): Just as they did in Round 1, the Clippers have successfully erased a 0-2 series deficit. Although this time, they did so at home as opposed to on the road. Games 3 and 4 in Los Angeles saw the Clippers largely dominate throughout as they’ve now outscored the Jazz over the course of the four games. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George have each gone for 30+ points in the L2 games. But will they be able to do so again now that the series moves back to Salt Lake City? I don’t think so. Donovan Mitchell, who has six straight 30+ point games for Utah, is also due to “cool off.”

So I’m looking Under in Game 5. Note that I had the 1st half Over in Game 4, which cashed, but the full game total stayed Under - just barely (1.5 points). Three-point shooting was good - for both teams - in the games in Los Angeles. Both teams made over 40% of their threes with the Clippers making 46.5%. Those percentages should start to come down. We’re also coming off a game that had a series-high 64 free throws. The previous high was Game 1 with 50 FTs. So count on a reduction there for Game 5.

Utah is 6-2 Under this season immediately following a double digit loss. That includes Game 4. Meanwhile, the Clippers are 6-1 Under following a double digit win. Again, Game 4 included. The Clippers are allowing just 107.4 PPG in the playoffs, which is basically right in line with their regular season average. Utah is much more sound defensively at home where they allow only 105.4 PPG. I think the vast majority of signs point to this game being lower-scoring than the last one, which means Under. 10* Under Clippers/Jazz

10* Milwaukee (8:35 ET): This series has changed dramatically over the past two games as we’ve gone from Brooklyn being up 2-0 to things being all squared away at two games apiece. Not only that, the Nets are now without the services of both James Harden (injured in Game 1) and Kyrie Irving (injured in Game 4). That changes the outlook on this Eastern Conference semifinal quite dramatically and oddsmakers now have the Bucks favored to take Game 5 in Brooklyn. I have no hesitation laying the points here as you have to remember that the Bucks actually went off as favorites here in Game 2 (when the Nets had Irving). 

Now Brooklyn dominated Game 2, making the line movement look foolish. But it’s a whole different ball game now without Harden and Irving. Truthfully, I thought Milwaukee might be the better team coming into this series. They held the Nets to 83 and 96 points the last two games and I certainly think they can do the job defensively on the road now that two of the Nets’ superstars are M.I.A. Remember that they led by as many as 21 in Game 3 and then pulled away in Game 4 once Irving went down. 

Kevin Durant is going to have to shoulder a huge load for Brooklyn tonight. The problem is he went only 9 for 25 from the floor in the last game as PJ Tucker did an excellent job of guarding him. No one besides Durant had more than 11 points for the Nets in Game 4 as they missed 23 of 33 three-point attempts. Meanwhile, Milwaukee seems to have rediscovered its shooting touch after making 16 of 47 3PA in Game 4. Yet they still haven’t hit their season average of 38% in any game in this series. That has to be scary for Brooklyn, especially considering how Kris Middleton has been heating up. 10* Milwaukee

10* Phoenix (8:05 ET): It appears to be “all over but the shouting” in this Western Conference semifinal as the Suns have the injury-plagued Nuggets outgunned and outclassed. Phoenix can end this series tonight and in the process win their seventh consecutive game. Since being down 2-1 in the first round series vs. the Lakers, a switch has seemingly “flipped” with this young team that I still think is being underrated. They had the second most wins in the regular season and are 6-0 ATS during the current win streak. I’m laying the points as the Suns should finish off the sweep Sunday. 

Remember that the Suns’ rise began in LY’s bubble when they went a perfect 8-0. Including that, they are 66-22 their L88 games overall! Chris Paul has taken control in this series, leading victories by 17, 25 and 14 points. That’s an average margin of victory of nearly 19 PPG. Keep in mind they also closed out the Lakers series with a pair of double digit wins, one of them coming by 30 points. The last five wins have all been by 13 points or more. They are allowing just 98.9 PPG in the playoffs! 

Denver hasn’t lost four in a row at any point this season, but that’s about to change. MVP Nikola Jokic just isn’t getting much help in this series. This just isn’t the same team without Jamal Murray. Campazzo, Morris and Rivers all overperformed against Portland, but that’s a bad defensive team. The Suns are playing lockdown defense right now. Even the return of Will Barton hasn’t meant much to the Nuggets’ cause. Over the L6 games, Phoenix has not allowed more than 105 points. 10* Phoenix

8* Under Nets/Bucks (3:05 ET): All three games in this series have gone Under. I think it’s fair to call that “surprising,” given that these were the two highest scoring teams in the league during the regular season. Of course, that meant the oddsmakers were going to post high totals for this series. The O/U line closed 235.5 or higher for each of the three games so far. But the last one really stands out. Game 3 stayed Under by 66 points, a record for the last 30 years of NBA Playoff action. Will there be more scoring Sunday? Obviously. But I don’t think there will be 60+ more pts scored. Take the Under. 

Milwaukee will be looking to even the series here after winning Game 3 86-83. They just barely failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites, which was upsetting to me as I laid the points. It is interesting how the line has shifted for Game 4 with Milwaukee now an underdog at home. I think the concern for them has to be the fact that other than Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton, the rest of the team combined for 18 points and made just eight field goals in Game 3. Will that go up? Again, obviously. But the Bucks are also coming off B2B 86-point games. I just don’t see a “magic” return to the regular season average when so many players are shooting so poorly, especially from three-point range. 

Even Kevin Durant was only 11 of 28 from the floor in Game 3. Brooklyn is now 12-4 Under its L16 games against teams with winning records and all of them from here on out are going to fall into that situation. The most total points scored in any of the three games was 222 (Game 1) and that was with a blistering pace set in the first half. Again, I know the expectation is for a higher scoring game this afternoon, but making up the discrepancy between Game 3 and the O/U line here seems dicey. 8* Under Nets/Bucks

10* LA Clippers (8:35 ET): The Clippers are in an all-too familiar position here, that being down 0-2 in a best of seven series. The same thing happened in the first round against Dallas, although in that instance they lost the first two games at home. That series would become rather infamous for the road team capturing the first six games (1st time in NBA Playoff history). This one has been a bit more “traditional” with top seeded Utah winning the first two at home. The Clippers are now hoping it’s the home team that “rules the day” in Round 2 as the series shifts to Staples Center for the next two games. I’m laying the points in Game 3.

The last time the Clips played at home, it was the most important game of the season - Game 7 vs. Dallas. I took them and they delivered a 126-111 victory. Both games in Salt Lake City were close as they were decided by three and six points. Despite being down by 21 in the second half Thursday, Ty Lue’s team did come back and even took a brief lead in the 4Q. They also were up by double digits for most of the first half in Game 1. Though 0-2 ATS so far in this round, home teams down 0-2 in the series are typically sound bets. It would be foolish to write off the Clippers here.

Utah has won the first two games despite not having the services of Mike Conley. He’s questionable for tonight. On the road, Conley’s absence would loom larger. I seriously doubt the Jazz will shoot 55% again as they did in Game 2. They were also 20 of 39 (51.3%) from three-point range in Game 2. Again, the chances of replicating that kind of shooting on the road seem small. Donovan Mitchell HAS to cool off, right? I think it’s time for the Clippers to break out offensively in this one as their three-point shots will start to fall. 10* LA Clippers

10* Over Suns/Nuggets (10:05 ET): Phoenix has looked dominant through two games of this series. They won by an average of 21 PPG and Chris Paul now looks totally fine after being hampered by a shoulder injury for much of the first round. Since falling behind the Lakers two games to one in the opening round, the Suns have won five in a row with the last four victories all coming by double digits. Right now, you have to consider them the favorite to advance to the Western Conference Finals. But the series is moving to Denver where the Nuggets averaged 115.1 PPG in the regular season. That’s well up from the 101.5 they averaged in the first two games. Take the Over. 

All five Suns’ starters have finished in double figures both games. Paul led the way in Game 2 with 17 points, 15 assists and zero turnovers. The team averaged 222.5 points in the first two games and is 31 for 72 from three-point range. They are 18-8 Over this season coming off a double digit win and 26-13 Over after scoring 115+ points in their previous game. While you might expect somewhat of a dropoff offensively on the road, Denver has given up 120.2 PPG in the playoffs. The Over is 6-2 in Nuggets’ playoff games as only one time have they allowed fewer than 115 points. 

Denver’s perceived poor effort in Game 2 led to HC Michael Malone blasting the team in the media. So expect an inspired effort as they face the potential for an 0-3 series hole. MVP Nikola Jokic has done his part, but is getting little in the way of help. At home, that should change. Will Barton is now back, having returned to the lineup in Game 2. All three of the Nuggets’ home playoff games have gone Over. They are 10-4 Over this season following a double digit loss. Though Game 2 stayed Under, scoring picked up a lot in the 2H and nearly sent the game Over. 10* Over Suns/Nuggets

8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): The story of the two games in Philadelphia was that each team was able to pick up a win following a hot start. I had the Hawks in Game 1 and they absolutely rolled (save for a shaky 4Q) thanks to a 42-point first quarter. I thought Game 2 was an obvious time to use the “zig zag theory” on Philadelphia and sure enough they jumped out to an early 18-point lead, held on, and won 118-102 victory as 6.5-point chalk. Now the series moves back to Atlanta - where the Hawks have won 13 in a row. I’ll “zig zag” again and take them as I’m surprised they opened as underdogs for Game 3. 

The loss of De’Andre Hunter (out for the season) is tough for Atlanta, but it’s not something they can’t overcome. Look for Trae Young to pick his shooting back up after a rare “off-night” in Game 2. After going for 35 points in Game 1, Young was held to only 21 in Game 2 and in particular, he struggled from three-point range by going just 1 for 7. The Hawks also seem to have a massive edge on the bench as their reserves have outscored their Sixers’ counterparts by almost a 2:1 margin through two games. And those two were played on the road. At home is typically where reserves play better. So expect the edge in bench points to be even bigger for Atlanta here. 

Joel Embiid has been great in the first two games, but remember he’s (theoretically) hobbled by a knee injury. The Sixers’ reserves had ZERO points in the 1H of Game 2 and aren’t likely to be bailed out by Shake Milton (14 pts in Gm 2) again. Let’s go back to something I said in the Game 1 analysis. Since Nate McMillan took over as HC, the Hawks have the best win percentage in the East, despite not always being fully healthy. Their last home loss was nearly two months ago. Philly has shot very well in the first two games (52%). Expect that to decline on the road. 8* Atlanta

10* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): Through two games, things have not gone well for the Bucks. Ghosts of playoffs past seem to have reemerged as the team is shooting a woeful 29 percent from three-point range in the series. So much for that 1st round sweep of Miami convincing people (like myself) that this Bucks team would be different? Not so fast. The series now heads back to Milwaukee where there will be an obvious improvement in the Bucks’ shooting. As for Brooklyn, there’s just no way they can hope to maintain their current percentages of 55% overall, 44% from three and 88% from the FT line. 

Let’s not forget that sharp money was all over Milwaukee heading into Game 2. Said money turned out to not be so “sharp” as the Bucks were annihilated 125-86 as a 1.5-point favorite. They’d opened +2.5, so that line move was significant. I know Game 2 was a horrible performance, but it seems like we’re getting a discount here on the Bucks at home. This is a team that’s 28-10 SU on its home floor this season and averaging more than 120 PPG. Through two games, Milwaukee has been outscored by 66 points from behind the three-point line. That is simply not going to continue. They were one of the better 3-pt shooting teams in the regular season. 

Have we also forgotten about James Harden? He’s still out with a hamstring injury. I know Kevin Durant has been “out of his mind” and there’s only so much you can do to stop him. But on the road, I don’t think he’ll shoot 12 for 18 again like he did in Game 2. The triumvirate of Harris-Griffin-James has given the Nets 79 points in the first two games. Role players tend to struggle more on the road, so their production should dip as well. This is basically “do or die” for Milwaukee as another loss would have them down 0-3 and the season would basically be over. Lay the points as I expect an inspired effort. 10* Milwaukee

10* Over Nuggets/Suns (9:35 ET): Early in the second half of Game 1, Phoenix looked to be in some trouble. They were down 10 and Chris Paul’s shoulder was seemingly an issue again. Then, out of nowhere, it wasn’t an issue any more. Paul’s shot making was the catalyst for a 34-9 Suns run that gave them a 122-105 win and cover (as six-point chalk) Monday night. I apologize to everyone that was with me on the Nuggets, but for 2.5 quarters they definitely looked like the right side. Nikola Jokic certainly picked a bad time to go cold, a day before winning the league’s MVP Award. I don’t think he’ll go 10 of 23 from the floor again in Game 2.

Four Suns scored 20 or more points in Game 1. Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton and Mikal Bridges joined Paul in the mix. The team shot 54% overall and finished with a playoff-high 122 points. But the Suns defense has been the real story as they are allowing just 98.6 points per game in the playoffs and 42.2% shooting. That is something I can’t see continuing. They were a good defensive team in the regular season, but even still they gave up an average of 108.5 PPG. Facing two banged up opponents thus far in the postseason has been a bit of a break. That being said, don’t be surprised if the Suns allow more than 109 points for the first time (in the playoffs) in Game 2.

The Over is 23-10-1 in Phoenix’s last 34 games. Denver is now 7-1 Over in the playoffs. The last three times these teams have met, not surprisingly, the game has gone Over with 256, 232 and 227 total points scored. Denver is 21-8 Over following a SU loss, including 10-3 if it was by double digits. Like I said earlier, Jokic is very likely to shoot better tonight than he did in Game 1. The Nuggets average 115.4 PPG for the season. Look for their scoring to rise in Game 2 (they'll DEFINITELY attempt more than SIX free throws) while Phoenix likely comes close to matching their Game 1 output. 10* Over Nuggets/Suns

8* Utah (10:05 ET): The Clippers were good to me on Sunday (they were my 10* Game of the Week!) but I’ll gladly fade them here coming off the Game 7 victory. Yes, they went 3-0 SU/ATS on the road in the Dallas series. But winning at Salt Lake City will not be as easy. The top-seeded Jazz are not only rested (last played on 6/2), but they are 33-6 SU on their home court this season. They did drop Game 1 here to the Grizzlies, but that should only serve to have them MORE ready to go in the second round opener. They won the last four games of the Memphis series by an average of 11.25 points per game. Lay it! 

Keep in mind that Jazz PG Donovan Mitchell sat in Game 1 vs. Memphis. Upon returning to the lineup, he averaged 28.5 points and 5.8 assists per game. The team scored 120 or more in all four first round victories. As you might guess from a 33-6 SU record, this has been a dominant home team as they’ve won here by an average of nearly 13 PPG this season. In my first round analysis, I called the Clippers the #2 team in my power ratings, but guess who’s #1? I’m not here to say that the Clips don’t have a chance in this series; I just think it’s a terrible situation they’re facing here in Game 1 with the quick turnaround.

Only five teams in NBA history have lost the first two games of a best of seven series at home and come back to win the series. The Clippers are the fifth. So they are definitely a bit lucky to be here. The league’s top three-point shooting team in the regular season, they struggled from behind the arc in the first round.. But then they finally had a break out effort in Game 7. Not sure I see a carryover though as Utah keeps its opponents to 32.8% from three-point range here at home. The Jazz took two of three regular season meetings, are 9-3 ATS L12 vs. LA and 20-8-1 ATS L29 times hosting them. 8* Utah 

10* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): I took the Hawks in Game 1, and while it definitely got a bit “dicey” at the end, I couldn’t have been more pleased with how things went. Trae Young and company jumped on the East’s #1 seed early with a 42 point first quarter. Atlanta led by 15 after 1Q, 20 at halftime and 16 after 3Q. But I’m not sure how anyone could bet the Hawks with any confidence in Game 2 based on how poorly they closed the game. Philadelphia, down 17 with 4:42 remaining, got within two in the final minute. I watched in horror as Atlanta displayed some of the worst late game execution that I have ever seen. 

As mentioned above, the Hawks started out hot w/ a 42-point first quarter. They made 14 of their first 18 shots. But gradually, the 76ers adjusted defensively and showed why they were the #2 ranked team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. It was their defense, specifically trapping, that got them back into the game. They used their size advantage and I expect to see lots more of that in Game 2. Philly lost just one other game previous to Game 1 this postseason (Game 4 vs. Wizards) and I backed them off that loss. They delivered a 129-112 and improved to 9-2 ATS this season off a SU loss as a favorite. 

The other big story for Game 1 is that Joel Embiid played. He was great with 39 points and nine rebonds, showing no real ill effects from the injury he suffered in Round 1. As a team, the Sixers actually shot better than the Hawks in Game 1, 54.9% to 51.2%. But Atlanta made twice as many threes (20 to 10) and Philly missed 11 free throws (Ben Simmons being the biggest offender). I don’t see the three-point discrepancy repeating itself here in Game 2. Atlanta got the win it needed and can head home (where they’ve won 11 in a row) with no worse than a split. Classic zig-zag play here as the end of Game 1 should carry over into Game 2. Lay the points. 10* Philadelphia

10* Denver (10:05 ET): It’s not that often you can say it’s “surprising” to see a 2-seed in the 2nd round of the NBA Playoffs. But that’s how I view the Suns, who got by the Lakers in six games. Maybe it was a mistake to underestimate Phoenix, although the Lakers came into the postseason still favored to make a repeat trip to the Finals. After three games, it very much looked like the Suns would be “one and done,” but give them credit for taking advantage of a banged up Lakers team and winning three straight. Now they face a Denver team that is also dealing with injuries, but has adjusted much better than LA did. 

The Nuggets also won their 1st round series 4-2. Even with Portland’s best player (Damian Lillard) “going off” on a consistent basis, the Nuggets were still able to get the job done. PG Jamal Murray’s season is over and Will Barton is expected to miss Game 1 tonight. But the likes of Michael Porter Jr stepped up big time against the Blazers with three games of 25+ points. Of course, you’ve got Nikola Jokic as well. He averaged 33.0-10.5-4.5 in the first round and 25.7-13.7-8.3 against Phoenix in the regular season. The Nuggets won twice here in Phoenix and the road team actually won/covered all three regular season matchups. 

Don’t forget about Chris Paul’s injury and its effect on the Suns. Through the first three games of the Lakers’ series, it looked as if Paul's injured shoulder was going to sink them. I’ve got these teams rated far closer than the spread indicates, even after factoring in a slight home court edge for Phoenix. The Suns, who like to play slow, aren’t going to hold the Nuggets under 100 points like they were able to do against the Lakers. I’m not sure they have an answer defensively for Jokic. Denver has already overcome Lillard, so Cory Booker doesn’t necessarily scare me here. Take the points. 10* Denver

8* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): On the Nets’ very first offensive possession of Game 1, James Harden went down with an injury. He immediately went back to the locker room, never returned and has already been ruled out for Game 2. For most teams, the loss of a player like Harden would be devastating. But Brooklyn still has Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, who combined for 54 points. Then you had the likes of Joe Harris, Blake Griffin and Mike James combining for 49. The Nets ended up taking control of Game 1 in the second quarter and never looked back, winning 115-107 as 3.5-point chalk. They are 10-1 SU/ATS L11 games. 

I don’t think for a second that the triumvirate of Harris-Griffin-James is giving Brooklyn almost 50 points again. Also concerning were the number of minutes logged by both Durant (40:06) and Irving (44:35) in Game 1. While the Nets are “used to” playing w/o Harden at this point, this is the playoffs and his absence is more significant. Harden missed 18 straight games from April 5th to May 11th and the team lost eight of those games. This is not a team I trust defensively and Milwaukee is going to shoot much better from 3-point range in Game 2 than they did in Game 1. The Bucks also dominated the paint Saturday night, scoring 72 points.

The Bucks did not shoot the ball well from 3-point range in Game 1 of the first round series against Miami. They missed 26 of 31 attempts. I immediately jumped on them for Game 2 and sure enough they shot 22 of 53 from behind the arc in a 132-98 blowout victory. Not saying it will be THAT easy tonight, but you can definitely count on improved 3-point shooting from Game 1 when they made just 6 of 30. This is a team that makes 38.3% of threes for the year. Eventually, the Bucks have to cover as underdogs (0-5 ATS this year). I think it happens Monday. Take the points. 8* Milwaukee

10* LA Clippers (3:35 ET): Led by Kawhi Leonard’s 45 points (tied a career playoff high), the Clippers forced a Game 7 with a 104-97 win (as three-point favorites) on Friday night. According to ESPN’s Stats & Info department, this is the first time in NBA Playoff history (excluding LY’s bubble - when there was no home court advantage) that the road team has captured the first six games of a series. The road team is 6-0 ATS as well. I just can’t see the streak reaching seven games though. I released a ~SIGNATURE~ *10* ULTIMATE POWER for Game 6 and they came through. Now look for the home team to finally win (and cover) a game.

As I noted in my Game 6 analysis, LA has gone off as the favorite for every game in the series. The spread for Game 7 is roughly on par for what it was in Games 1, 2 and 5. While the Clippers lost all of those games, I still point to the fact they have outscored Dallas in the series - now by 21 points. Something that jumped out to me when analyzing Game 6 is that the Clippers have been the much better team on a per possession basis. Dallas has also seen its shooting decline dramatically the L3 games. They’ve been below 42% overall from the field each game w/ 3pt shooting really taking a tumble. 

The Clippers were the NBA’s #1 three-point shooting team in the regular season (41.1%) so it’s been surprising to see them down at 35% in this series. Still, I take it as a positive sign that they were able to win Game 6 despite shooting just 29.4% from behind the arc. They did take twice as many free throws compared to the Mavs and made 10 more. But Leonard was the key, not just offensively, but also at the defensive end when it came to stopping Luka Doncic. I think he’ll be the difference again Sunday. Lay the points as the home team is “due” to win (and cover) Game 7. 10* LA Clippers

8* Atlanta (1:05 ET): The Hawks turned a lot of heads when it took just five games to eliminate the Knicks. Trae Young was most definitely the best player on either team in that first round series and if Joel Embiid (questionable for Game 1) remains out for the 76ers, then Young is probably going to be the best player on the floor in this second round series as well. Regarding Embiid, though the Sixers did win the clincher vs. Washington, they are just 10-11 SU this season w/o the MVP Finalist. I don’t think many realize just how good this Atlanta team has been since Nate McMillan took over. They are 27-11 SU. 

That win percentage (.711) is the best in the Eastern Conference during that time. Philadelphia, who finished first in the East, won at a .703 clip in that same stretch. The Hawks were not a healthy team in the regular season as players combined to miss 278 regular season, fourth most in the league and most of all playoff teams. But now they are pretty healthy. DeAndre Hunter did an excellent job at stopping Knicks’ leading scorer Julius Randle. Atlanta held the Knicks to 39.9% overall shooting and 97.0 PPG. It won’t be that easy here, but Philly isn’t going to be shooting 51.1% in this series as they did vs. the defensively inept Wizards.

If Embiid is out for any length of time, another potential issue for the 76ers is that their defensive efficiency rating jumps to 114.8 with the other four starters on the floor. Just to give you an idea of how big of a jump that is, a 114.8 defensive efficiency rating would rank dead last in the NBA. Philadelphia actually finished second overall in defensive efficiency. Now they have to concern themselves with Young, who is averaging 29.2 PPG in the playoffs and went over 30 in all three road games. Even if Embiid does play, he won’t be 100 percent. Atlanta is a hot team that is much better than most realize. This spread speaks volumes. 8* Atlanta

10* Under Bucks/Nets (7:35 ET): This seems like it will be the “marquee” series in the second round of the NBA Playoffs as you’ve got the team that finished first in the Eastern Conference each of the L2 seasons (Milwaukee) taking on this year’s favorite to win the NBA Finals (Brooklyn). Neither team finished first in the East this season, but the winner of this series would be favored over the top seeded Sixers. The expectation is obviously for a high-scoring Game 1, but I think the total is too high here. Take the Under.

The expectation for a high-scoring contest is not without merit here as these were the top two scoring offenses during the regular season. But even so, Brooklyn games “only” averaged 233.3 points per game while Milwaukee games were at 232.5 PPG. In the first round playoff series against Miami, the Bucks allowed an average of 98.0 PPG. While repeating that vs. the Nets will be next to impossible, the Bucks did hold the Heat below 40% shooting in the four-game sweep. Brooklyn is 2-0 Under this season when playing with three or more days rest.

It’s been even longer since Milwaukee last took the court, exactly one week to be specific, so do not be surprised if they come out a bit “rusty” for Game 1. In the last round, both teams turned in their lowest scoring performances in Game 1. The Bucks-Heat game went to overtime and still ended up just 109-107. Brooklyn had to come from behind to beat Boston 104-93, which was both its lowest scoring game and best defensive effort of that series. 10* Under Bucks/Nets

8* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): Unlike the previous two postseasons, Milwaukee seems to be a bit underrated. They surprisingly made quick work of Miami in Round 1, sweeping the four game series and winning the L3 games by a combined 80 points. As I was looking ahead to the potential for a second round series with the Nets (which has obviously become a reality), my hope was that the Bucks wouldn’t be quite as dominant as I didn’t want them being viewed as a public side here. They’re still underdogs though and I think a case can be made that they were better than Brooklyn in the regular season. Take the points. 

Much will be made of the fact Milwaukee has had a full week off between series. Rest or rust? While I can’t fully answer that question now, I do think it was a GOOD thing that the Bucks had time to “come down” from the Heat series where they were looking to avenge LY’s Eastern Conference Finals. When it comes to the rest vs. rust debate, I don’t think there’s any real advantage or disadvantage here as Brooklyn has also had three days off. Both teams are 2-0 SU this season on 3+ days rest. 

The three regular season meetings between these teams were decided by a total of 11 points (none by more than six), so taking the points here seems like a reasonable option. Milwaukee posted the better regular season net efficiency rating and point differential. Obviously, Brooklyn is a different team now with all three of its stars (Durant, Irving, Harden) all in action. The Bucks had the higher defensive efficiency rating, which I view as key this time of year, and don’t be surprised when their three-point shooting improves from the previous round. Even with the home court advantage, I don’t think that the Nets should be favored by this many points. 8* Milwaukee

10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): The road team is 5-0 in this series, a trend the Clippers certainly hope continues Friday as they look to stay alive in the best of seven series with Dallas. They’re now down three games to two after dropping Game 5 105-100 as 7.5-point chalk. Los Angeles has been favored in all five games and has actually outscored Dallas, so it has to be terribly disappointing for them to be down in the series. I considered the Clippers to be the #2 overall team in the NBA coming into the playoffs, so it’s hard for me to see them bowing out of the playoffs so early. Lay the points here in Game 6.

You’d have to go back more than a quarter century, to 1995, to find the last time the first five games of a playoff series all went to the road team. So history is not on the Clippers side. But this is a team that’s 23-15 SU away from home this season. Meanwhile, Dallas’ home struggles are nothing new. While their YTD record here at the American Airlines Center is 21-17 SU, they are actually 15-23 against the spread and have been outscored. The last game here in Dallas saw the Clippers win by 25. They won Game 3 by 10 points while shooting 57.9% from the field.

The Mavs’ overall shooting has come down the last two games. They made only 34.8%, including 5 of 30 from three-point range, in Game 4. Then it was 41.6% in Game 5, only for them to get bailed out by an incredible individual from Luka Doncic. The Clippers played one bad quarter on Wednesday, that being the third when they went 8 of 21. This was the #1 three-point shooting team in the league during the regular season and they had a higher defensive efficiency rating than Dallas in the regular season. They are actually scoring the third most points per possession in the playoffs. They are 8-2 ATS L10 in Dallas and I still believe they are the better team. 10* LA Clippers

8* Under Suns/Lakers (10:35 ET): This has been a low-scoring series so far with four of the five games going Under and the one that went Over just barely crept past the total because of lots of free throws in the final two minutes. The five games have averaged just 199.2 points, yet the O/U lines have remained fairly consistent since Game 1. This is an elimination game for the Lakers, who were blown out in Game 5, 115-85. Game 2 (the lone Over of the series) is the only time in the series where the losing team scored 100 points. Gonna keep rolling with the Under, which I cashed in on back in Game 4. 

I’m 2 for 2 in this series, not only cashing the Under in Game 4 but the Lakers in Game 2. I do have to say that I’m surprised to see the Lakers down three games to two, especially considering they were seemingly in complete control following a 109-95 win in Game 3. But then Anthony Davis got hurt and nothing has been the same. In the six quarters they have been without Davis, the team has totaled only 127 points. That’s really bad. The most points the Lakers have scored in any game this series is 109. Three times they’ve been held below 100. 

Now one of the Suns’ key players (Chris Paul) is also injured, though he’s been playing through it. But Paul has obviously been ineffective, shooting just 40% in the series. The Lakers were the #1 team in defensive efficiency during the regular season and before Game 5, Phoenix had yet top 102 points in any game in the series. So with Davis questionable to play in Game 6, the way the best chance for the Lakers to stay alive is their defense. They are 15-5 Under after allowing 115+ points this season and 29-9 Under vs. teams that are .500 or better. 8* Under Suns/Lakers

10* Portland (8:05 ET): The Blazers are both facing elimination and at home tonight, so I’ll lay the points in this “must-win” scenario. Game 5 of this series was an all-timer as it went to double overtime, but despite 55 points from Damian Lillard (made 12 threes!) the Blazers still lost the game 147-140. The “zig-zag theory” (simply take the ATS loser of the previous game) has been a fairly reliable 3-1 ATS so far in the series and you just get “the feeling” that these teams are destined for a Game 7. 

It’s impressive that Denver has the series lead here despite being without their two primary ballhandlers: Jamal Murray and Will Barton. Nikola Jokic is having himself quite the series, averaging 32.4 and 11.0 rebounds per game and he’s registered a double-double three times. But playing this game on the road, I don’t think the Nuggets can count on the kind of performances they got from Monte Morris (28 pts), Michael Porter Jr (26) and Austin Rivers (18) in Game 5. Going back to last season, Denver is 0-5 ATS when leading in a playoff series. 

Lillard’s teammates really let him down in the two overtime periods Monday as they shot a collective 1 for 19 from the floor. That’s atrocious. Similar to the regression I see happening with some of the Nuggets’ role players, I look for Portland’s (role players) to improve. Besides Lillard, the rest of the Blazers went 9 of 31 from three-point range in Game 5. This is a team that shoots 38.7% from behind the arc for the season. While a lot of that is Lillard, expect CJ McCollum to play a lot better here. 10* Portland

10* Under Grizzlies/Jazz (9:35 ET): So the Over is 4-0 in this series. I had the Over in the last game and though it looked like a “surefire” winner after three quarters (score was 100-87 Utah), I had to end up “sweating things out” thanks to the Jazz going relatively cold in the fourth. Eventually though, the game did go Over as the Jazz prevailed 120-113 (total was 225.5) to take a 3-1 series lead. The West’s top seed has now taken the last three games after being upset here at home in Game 1. The oddsmakers keep moving up the O/U line and I think Game 5 is when we finally have an Under. 

The big difference in Game 4 was three-point shooting. Utah made 50% (17 of 34) while Memphis made 28.6% (10 of 35). Will we see those numbers even out a bit tonight? Probably. But I don’t see the Grizzlies improving that much being they’re on the road. They shot just below 35% from three-point range the first two games in Utah. This is not a particularly prolific three-point shooting team either. Of the 16 teams that made the playoffs, they have taken the fewest number of attempts from behind the arc. That’s right on par with the regular season when they were 25th (out of 30 teams) in # of three-point attempts.

Utah leads the league in 3PA this season, but they are not likely to hit 50% again as they did in Game 4. Jordan Clarkson went 4 of 9 from deep in the last game en route to 24 points. He’d previously gone 3 of 21 on 3PA in this series. These are two top six teams in defensive efficiency during the regular season. It’s time we had an Under in this series. 10* Under Grizzlies/Jazz

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The 76ers failed in their first attempt to eliminate Washington, losing Game 4 by a score of 122-114 (as 8.5-point favorites). Even worse, Joel Embiid left Monday’s loss with a sore knee. Long-term, that is something definitely worth monitoring. Short-term, I still expect the Sixers to end this series in five games, even if Embiid does not play Wednesday. The Wizards’ overall fitness is not exactly 100 percent and they are 0-7 SU in the City of Brotherly Love the L3 seasons. Lay the points.

In addition to the Embiid injury, it was one bad quarter that doomed Philly’s prospects on Monday. After they took an 11-point lead in the 1Q, things tightened up by halftime. Then they were outscored 32-19 in the 3Q, which is when the game - and the franchise’s chance at its first series sweep in 36 years - got away from them. It was during the 3Q that Washington chose to employ a “Hack-a-Ben” strategy, as in Ben Simmons, whose inability to hit free throws really cost the team. Simmons is a hideous 5 of 20 from the charity stripe in this series. It will be interesting to see if the Wizards continue to elect to send him to the line in this game. If they do, Simmons must make them pay.

Let’s not forget that Washington was last in the league in the regular season in points allowed per game. They’ve been even worse in this series, allowing the 76ers to score an average 122.7 points in the four games. Russell Westbrook has played the L2 games, but is banged up, and Davis Bertans is now out for the rest of the series. That’s no matter as the Wizards’ season is going to end tonight as Philadelphia is a strong 8-2 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite this season. Three-point shooting has been a massive problem for the Wiz in the L3 game, which is not a surprise as the Sixers were #2 in the league during the regular season in number of points allowed per possession. Vintage “zig zag theory” here.  8* Philadelphia

8* Under Wizards/Sixers (7:05 ET): I also like Game 5 to go Under the total. Yes, I know three of the first four games have gone Over the total. But Game 4 was the first time we didn’t see red-hot shooting from either side, even though three of the four quarters saw 59 or more total points scored. The Embiid injury is the big story. The 76ers shot just 41.7% in Game 4 compared to 58.6% in Game 3 and 55.7% in Game 2. While they figure to improve (from Game 4), with or without Embiid I don’t see them getting back to the level of Games 2 and 3. 

Washington has struggled with its three-point shooting all series. They did make 9 of 24, which is a reasonable percentage, in Game 4. But that was also after going 10 of 57 from behind the arc in the previous two games. Again, the Wizards’ struggles offensively shouldn’t be that surprising given Philly allowed the second fewest number of points per possession in the regular season. Russell Westbrook, hobbled by an ankle injury, has been an albatross when it comes to three-point shooting. He’s just 3 for 15 in the series. 

I also don’t expect the teams to combine for a somewhat preposterous 76 free throws in this game. That was the number in Game 4, a byproduct of Washington continually sending Ben Simmons to the line. In the previous three games, there were never more than 49 total free throws attempted. Even if the Wizards choose to keep sending Simmons to the line, I don’t see the same kind of productions from the charity stripe here. Washington made 33 FT’s in Game 4! That’s 13 more than they average per game for the season. 8* Under Wizards/Sixers

8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): I went with the Nets in Game 4 and that turned out to be rather easy as they blew past the Celtics 141-126. It was the most points ever scored by the franchise in a playoff game as they torched Boston for 57.8% shooting, including 16 of 27 from three-point range. More importantly, the win puts Brooklyn on the cusp of advancing to the second round. It is certainly in their best interest to advance ASAP, given that Milwaukee swept Miami. I think it’s pretty clear that the Nets are the vastly superior team here and short of another 50-point game from Jayson Tatum, they should win big.

Tatum did go for 40 in Game 4, but that wasn’t nearly enough as his teammates shot just 42.8% from the field. Tatum got nearly half his production from the foul line (17/17), which can’t be counted on when you’re on the road like Boston now is for Game 5. Making Tatum’s job even tougher here is that the Celtics are playing short-handed. Both Kemba Walker and Robert Williams III sat out Sunday and may be out again here. Even if one or both injured players were to suit up tonight, I don’t think it will matter much. Walker is shooting just 31.8% in the series. Williams averages only 6.3 points per game. 

Going back to the end of the regular season, Boston has won only three of its last 10 games. I did take them in Game 3 (winner!), figuring that would be their “best effort” of the series and it was. But they are clearly outclassed here as the Nets got 80+ points from Durant/Harden in Game 3, then 80+ from Durant/Irving in Game 4. Too many weapons. Brooklyn is averaging 123.5 PPG in the series and shooting 49.3% overall, 41.3% from three-point range and 92% from the FT. Boston is now 0-9 ATS in its L9 times when playing with just one day of rest. Look for this series to end tonight in blowout fashion. 8* Brooklyn

8* Over Jazz/Grizzlies (9:35 ET): All three games in this series have gone Over with the last two seeing 270 and 232 combined points. There’s really no reason to expect there won’t be a lot of scoring tonight in Game 4. The last game saw Memphis shoot just 43% overall from the field and 31.7% from three. Yet they still scored 111 points. That’s slightly below their season average. You have to expect a little better offense from the home team in Game 4, especially since the Over is 7-0 the L7 times they’ve been a playoff underdog. 

Utah has to feel good about itself seeing as they won Game 3 by 10 points despite taking 19 fewer shot attempts. They were dominated on the offensive glass, 16-7, but Memphis only ended up making three more shots than the Jazz did. It’s something to watch here as the Grizzlies should be more efficient if they are able to control the glass again. It should be noted that Memphis is shooting a solid 47% for the series. Utah gives up 110.1 PPG on the road, up from 105.1 PPG allowed at home. 

But regardless of the fact Memphis is likely to improve at the offensive end tonight, the Jazz are going to “get theirs” too. They’ve averaged 123.7 PPG in the three games and they’ve made 19 three pointers in each of the last two games. They are above 45% from behind the arc in their two wins. The Over is 6-0 in Utah’s last six games as a playoff favorite. The Over is also 7-1 the last eight meetings between these teams. Only two of those eight meetings saw less than 230 total points scored. 8* Over Jazz/Grizzlies

10* Under 76ers/Wizards (7:05 ET): It certainly appears to be “all over but the shouting” in this 76ers-Wizards series as top-seeded Philly looks to become the second team in the East (Milwaukee) to sweep their way into the second round. Truthfully, the Wizards didn’t stand much of a chance here with the 30th ranked (that’s last!) scoring defense in the NBA. But you would have hoped for a bit of a better effort in Game 3 on their home floor, especially since Russell Westbrook ended up playing.

Instead, what Washington got was a 132-103 loss in Game 3. For the second straight game, Philadelphia shot the lights out. After making 55.7% of their field goal attempts in Game 2, they were at 58.6% in Game 3. They even made 17 of 33 attempts from three-point range, which was way up from the previous two games. In fact, the Sixers made just 19 threes COMBINED in Games 1 & 2. While Washington’s defense may not give you much confidence, expect the Sixers’ shooting to fall off a bit here in Game 4. It’s only natural.

The Wizards’ shooting in the last two games has been less than desirable as they are just below 40% overall and a horrendous 10 of 57 from behind the three-point line. While there should be some expectation for improvement there, keep in mind that Philadelphia was #2 in the regular season in defensive efficiency and clearly is not having much difficulty stopping the Wiz in this series. They’ve allowed an average of just 105.3 PPG in the series and this is the highest O/U line yet. 10* Under 76ers/Wizards

10* Brooklyn (7:05 ET): The Nets jumped out to a 19-4 lead on Friday and appeared well on their way to taking a 3-0 series lead. But Boston had the lead (33-32) by the end of the first quarter, something they would only briefly relinquish, and would end up winning 125-119 as seven-point underdogs. They were carried by Jayson Tatum’s 50 points. As someone who had the Celtics plus the points in Game 3, I loved it. But I also don’t think there’s any disputing who the stronger team is in this series. I’ll go with them (that being the Nets!) tonight in Game 4. Lay the points. 

Going into Game 3, Brooklyn was basically even money to sweep this series. So the odds are still strong that they’ll finish off the Celtics in five games instead of four. Boston simply shot the ball better in Game 3 (50.6%) than they did in either game at Brooklyn, led by Tatum’s incredible individual effort. If you were to take out the shooting of Kemba Walker and Romeo Langford, then the Celtics’ Game 3 shooting effort was downright insane. It’s something that won’t be repeated tonight in Game 4, even though they are still at home. Boston has not won B2B games in the month of May. 

Meanwhile, Brooklyn had won and covered seven straight before the Game 3 loss. An “off-night” was fairly predictable, which is why I took the Celtics in the last game, but so is the bounce back tonight. Outside of the “Big 3” (Durant, Harden, Irving), the rest of the Nets scored just 23 points on Friday. That number is going to go up here. The Nets were the NBA’s highest scoring team in the regular season and actually averaged more on the road than they did at home. This is the first time in the series with just one off day between games. Boston is 0-8 ATS its L8 games with just one day of rest. 10* Brooklyn

8* Under Suns/Lakers (3:30 ET): The Lakers came into this series as the favorite, despite being the 7-seed, and have begun to assert themselves by winning the last two games. Keep in mind they’re not just the favorites to advance to the second round, they also have the shortest odds to win the Western Conference. Anthony Davis is listed as questionable to play in Game 4 Sunday (sprained knee), but has said there’s “no chance” he sits out. For Phoenix, Chris Paul is still dealing with a shoulder injury that kept him out of practice Saturday. He’s clearly not himself and thus the Suns have really struggled offensively in the series. I think those struggles continue here on Sunday. Take the Under. 

If not for some questionable fouling down the stretch in Game 2, it is likely that the Suns would have been held below 100 points in all three games of the series. They are averaging just 98.7 points in the three games with Game 2’s 102 being the high-water mark. Game 2 is the only one of the three to go Over, and again there was some foolish fouling by the Lakers near that end of that one that allowed it to go Over. We’ve yet to see a game with more than 211 total points scored in this series. 

Given that the Lakers are #1 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, the low-scoring should not be all that surprising. Then you have to throw in the fact they are facing an opponent whose PG is clearly injured. Paul is averaging only 6.7 PPG on 38.1% shooting in the three games so far and the Suns’ offensive efficiency plummets with him on the court. There’s also now too much pressure on Devin Booker to score. The Lakers are the only team in the league who have gone Under more than 60% of the time and the Under is 27-9 when they face a team that has a winning record. 8* Under Suns/Lakers

analysis soon

8* Washington (7:05 ET): Same strategy here as last night’s winners on Boston and the Clippers. We’re taking the team down 0-2 and this one seems real similar to the Celtics play as the Wizards are at home and being largely “written off” in this series with the top seeded 76ers. Right now, the big story is the “iffy” status of Washington PG Russell Westbrook, who rolled his ankle in Game 2 and is listed as questionable for Game 3. But if there was ever a time to take the Wiz it would be here as you’ve got to figure we’re getting their best effort with the season on the line. Even if Westbrook does not play, the Wizards still have Bradley Beal, who was the league’s second leading scorer in the regular season. 

Westbrook or no Westbrook, Washington will definitely shoot better from three-point range here compared to the last game when they went a dismal 2 of 22 from downtown. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen such poor three-point shooting, especially from a team that averages 116.5 PPG. As you’d expect, the Wizards’ scoring average jumps here at home (to 119.6 PPG) and the role players should universally benefit from being back in familiar surroundings. Washington has won its last four home games and the last time they played here (play-in game vs. Indiana), they scored 142 points. 

Philadelphia won’t shoot 55.7% from the floor again as they did in Game 2. They’ve now scored 120 or more in four straight games, going back to the end of the regular season. But all four games were at home. Their scoring drops pretty dramatically on the road where they average just 109.8 PPG (as opposed to 117.7 at home). While the Sixers are 31-7 SU at home this season, they are only 20-16 SU on the road. Washington has covered five straight times off an ATS loss and Philly is 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. 8* Washington

10* Under Nuggets/Blazers (4:05 ET): These teams have now played FOUR straight games, going back to the regular season finale. All four games have gone Over the total. Exceptional shooting - from one or both teams - has typically “ruled the day” every game. Game 3 of this first round series saw Denver make 20 of its 38 three-point attempts (52.6%) en route to a 120-115 victory. What was somewhat amazing about that win is that the Nuggets had 16 fewer shot attempts in the game. But the aforementioned 3-point shooting and a +14 edge in FT attempts (+11 in makes) gave the road team the victory and 2-1 series lead.

I missed on the Under in Game 3, but will come back with it here. I don’t think Denver is going to shoot THAT well again from three-point range. Portland isn’t very good defensively, but even they are allowing just 37.4% shooting from three-point range for the season. Denver shoots 37.8% for the year. Overall, the Nuggets have shot 50% in the three games. I don’t think that can be sustained, especially on the road. Austin Rivers probably isn’t scoring 21 points again either. 

Portland shot 48% from three-point range in the first two games before “cooling off” and going just 14 of 45 in Game 3. Damian Lillard is averaging 37.7 PPG In this series, but his three-point shooting in particular cooled off considerably in the last game. He didn’t get much help either. You have to believe we’re due for a “lower-scoring game” in this series. This is Denver’s first 4-game Over streak since mid-January. For Portland, it’s just the third time this year they’ve gone Over in four straight. They’ve never gone Over in five straight games and neither has Denver. 10* Under Nuggets/Blazers

10* LA Clippers (9:35 ET): The biggest swing that we’ve seen so far in terms of series odds is from Clippers-Mavs. The Clippers, initially -400 to win this series, are now down 0-2 and listed at +220. That’ll happen when you lose twice at home. Only 6.3% of teams that have fallen behind 0-2 in a best of seven series have gone on to advance. That’s the situation the Clippers find themselves in now, but the deficit is far from insurmountable. After all, they’re actually favored to win Game 3 in Dallas where they are 6-2 ATS L8 visits. I’m laying the short number Friday in what is an obvious “must-win” situation. 

Now, as I’ve detailed many times before, “must win” does not necessarily mean “will win,” But you’ve got to think the Clippers will at least start to rectify this discrepancy we’ve seen behind the three-point line. In the first two games of the series, Dallas has made 50% of its 3PA (35 of 70). The Clippers are at 24 of 73 or 32.8%. This is awfully strange for LA, who led the league in three-point shooting percentage (41.4%) during the regular season. They scored 73 points in the first half of Game 2 … and still lost! That’s because Dallas shot 58.5% overall and made 18 threes. 

Not only do I expect the Clips’ three-point shooting to get better in Game 3, I expect the defense to improve as well. They were a top eight team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. The good news is that after the last six times LA gave up 125+ points in a game, they came back and covered five times. They lost 127-121 in Game 2.  Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are both doing their jobs; they just need their teammates to start stepping up. The All-Star duo has 118 combined points through two games. I just cannot see this Clippers team losing a fifth straight game outright as favorites. I had them #2 overall in my own personal power rankings, heading into the playoffs. 10* LA Clippers

8* Boston (8:35 ET): It certainly FEELS as if everyone is writing off the Celtics at this point. In fact, the general consensus seems to be that they’re about to be swept by the Nets. But down 0-2 in the series and back at home, I anticipate their strongest effort coming in Game 3. Remember that they were ahead at the half, on the road, in Game 1. Yes, I’m well aware of the fact that Jaylen Brown is out for the season and Jayson Tatum had to leave the last game - a 130-108 loss - with an eye injury. But Tatum’s status was upgraded on Thursday and he will play. Meanwhile, the Nets are going to be without Jeff Green the rest of this series. 

Now obviously the Nets are relying heavily on their “Big 3” - Durant, Irving & Harden - who played a total of just nine games together in the regular season (202 total minutes). They haven’t had a problem so far in this series, particularly Game 2 when they shot much better than they did in Game 1. The team shot 52.3% and made 17 threes with the “Big 3” scoring a combined 61 points. But really the star of the game was Joe Harris, who made seven of those 17 threes himself and finished with a team-high 25 points. One thing’s for sure and that’s you shouldn’t expect a repeat performance from Harris, who had 16 points in the 1Q, helping the Nets get out to an early 14-point lead and 24-point lead by half. 

Boston has yet to defeat Brooklyn this season in five tries and four of those losses have been by double digits. But, again, if they were to win one it would likely be this game. Home teams down 0-2 in a best of seven series have been excellent bets through the years. In this instance, it looks like we’re getting some tremendous value as the Celtics closed +8 and +8.5 in the first two games and those were in Brooklyn. This will be the Nets’ first road game in 17 days. The Celtics are 20-8 ATS L28 as home underdogs. 8* Boston

10* Under Nuggets/Blazers (10:05 ET): These teams have now played each other THREE straight games, starting with the regular season finale. That finale was won by Portland, 132-116, allowing them to secure the 6-seed and face Denver in this first round series. The Nuggets chose not to play their starters for most of that finale, perhaps hoping to avoid the Blazers, but they got them here anyway due to the 4th seeded Clippers also losing on the last day of the regular season. As for the two games that matter more, the Nuggets and Blazers are all tied in this series after Denver won big (128-109) in Gm 2. 

All three of these games have gone Over the total. I took the Nuggets in Game 2 partly because I expected them to rectify the discrepancy in three-point shooting we saw back in Game 1. That wound up happening, although Portland was still better from downtown - 48.5% to 42.9%. The Blazers are 35 of 73 (47.9%) from behind the arc in the two games, which is going to be a difficult percentage to maintain even as the series shifts to their home court. Damian Lillard made an incredible EIGHT three-pointers in the 1H alone in Game 2, which was a playoff record for a half and thus certainly isn’t going to be repeated. 

Though they struggled from downtown in Game 1, Denver is above 50% overall shooting for the series. Again, that’s going to be really hard to maintain. As you’d expect, the Nuggets’ scoring average dips by a few points when they’re on the road. Fortunately for them, they also allow slightly less PPG on the road. When it comes to stopping Lillard, Denver may have found an answer with Aaron Gordon, who defended the All-Star well in the 2H of Monday’s game. Unfortunately, with Will Barton still listed as “questionable” (as of press time), the Nuggets may still be w/o their two primary ball-handlers. The Under is on a 12-4 run in Denver playoff games when the series is tied (as it is here). Portland is 6-0 Under off their previous six double digit losses. 10* Under Nuggets/Blazers

10* Utah (10:05 ET): The Jazz shockingly went down in Game 1, 112-109 as eight-point favorites. But PG Donovan Mitchell is on track to play in Game 2 and I’m willing to bet that the #1 overall seed in the playoffs bounces back from an overall dreadful night of shooting. A team that usually makes 46.8% of its field goal attempts made only 42.0% in Game 1 and things were even uglier from three-point range where Utah shot only 25.5%. Again, this was a 52-win team in the regular season and Sunday was only the sixth loss at home all season. They are almost +13.0 PPG at home and only five times this year have they lost B2B games. Lay the points. 

I’m not sure Memphis can possibly expect things to go any better than they did in Game 1. At one point, they missed 14 consecutive shots yet still led at halftime. Utah went 12 of 47 from three-point range when they normally average 38.7%. The average number of threes per game that the Jazz hit is 17. Dillon Brooks had 31 points for the Grizzlies in Game 1, which is something I don’t see being repeated. Memphis has now won eight of nine, including three straight since the play-in round began. But those three wins were all by five points or less (total of 12 pts). 

Mitchell sitting out in Game 1 for the Jazz has been a big topic of conversation over the last 48 hours. His presence is key considering the team lost six of its last 16 regular season games without him. Mitchell largely outplayed Brooks in two head to head regular season meetings, scoring twice as many points while shooting a far higher percentage. The Jazz were +14 in FT makes in Game 1, but lost in large part due to taking 20 fewer FG attempts. Memphis had 16 offensive rebounds, an edge I don’t think they’ll have again in any game moving forward. The Grizzlies are just 2-7 ATS off their L9 ATS wins. 10* Utah

10* LA Lakers (10:05 ET): The Lakers were still listed as the favorites to win the Western Conference coming into the playoffs (despite being a 7-seed!), but Phoenix was listed as the fave for Game 1 of this series and certainly looked like the better team Sunday afternoon. The Suns won 99-90, holding the Lakers to less than a point per possession, which is an impressive defensive effort. LA shot just 43.4% as a team, including 7 of 26 from three-point range. LeBron had just 18 points (only 13 FG attempts) while Anthony Davis shot 5 of 16 and had a +/- of -18. I think the Lakers bounce back in Game 2. 

The big story to monitor is Chris Paul’s shoulder. If the Phoenix PG is hampered by it, then the Suns are in trouble. Remember that the Lakers did lose Game 1 in Round 1 last year and then went on to win the next four over Portland, not to mention the NBA Championship. Getting back to the apparent Paul injury, he was clearly bothered by it late in Game 1. That’s probably why the Lakers are now favored to take Game 2. Well, that and the fact it seems unlikely they would fall down 0-2 in the series. Classic zig-zag play on the Lakers here. Oddsmakers are just trying to “scare bettors off” by making them the favorite. 

Let’s not forget how it’s the Lakers that ranked #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. I thought they did a pretty good job at that end of the floor in Game 1. They held the Suns 16 points below their season average. You’ve got to think the Lakers’ shooting will improve for Game 2. Meanwhile, the Paul injury could have a massive impact on the Suns offense. Obviously, you could say the same about James and the Lakers, but I’ve got more confidence in his ability to “play through it.”  Look for him to go inside more often (took only four shots within 10 ft in Gm 1). 10* LA Lakers

10* Denver (10:05 ET): Despite shooting 50% for the entire game, leading at halftime and playing at home, the Nuggets still found a way to lose Game 1 to the Blazers - by 14 points. How could that be? Well, it basically boils down to two things: the third quarter and three-point shooting. With the former, they got outscored 38-25 in the third, which was basically the difference in the game. With the latter, they shot just 11 of 36 from 3-point range (30.6%) while Portland was 19 of 40 (47.5%). I don’t think we’ll be seeing a discrepancy like that again in Game 2 and am going full “zig zag theory” on this one. Lay the points. 

For those that are unfamiliar, the famed “zig zag theory” is as simple as it gets. You just take the ATS loser of the previous game. With Denver, they obviously cannot afford to drop both home games. This is a team that generally shoots much better from three-point range than they did in Game 1. They are now 0-4 ATS this season head to head with the Blazers, which seems odd seeing as how they have the better overall record. I think the majority of signs point to a Denver bounce back in this game and I’m honestly shocked the spread is not higher. 

Portland did a pretty decent job at defending Nikola Jokic in Game 1, which sounds odd as he went for 34 points. But he had only one assist, a career-low for the playoffs. I know the Nuggets are missing both Jamal Murray and Will Barton, but I’d remain leery of a Portland team that finished the regular season only ahead of Sacramento in terms of most points allowed on a per possession basis. Denver has been outstanding this season when seeking revenge for a home loss, going 10-1 straight up and 9-2 against the spread. They are also 11-2 ATS the L3 years when trailing in a playoff series. 10* Denver

8* Under Blazers/Nuggets (10:05 ET): I also like the Under in Game 2 as neither team is likely to shoot as well as they did in Game 1, in particular Portland when it comes to three pointers. Something I failed to mention in the other writeup is that Denver attempted only eight free throws in Game 1 (made just four!). Expect more production there. That may sound like an odd way to begin a writeup on the Under, but while the Nuggets are likely to be more productive from the charity stripe in this game, their overall FG% is likely to fall. As I said in the other writeup, they are without primary ballhandlers Murray and Barton.

But the fortunate thing for Denver is that Portland isn’t going to be as hot from three-point range as they were in Game 1. The Blazers made 19 threes in Game 1 and shot 47.5% from behind the arc. Those numbers are well above their season averages. 

Another reason to like the Under is that Denver plays at one of the slowest paces in the entire NBA. They are bottom five in adjusted tempo. Only the Clippers, Heat and Knicks average a fewer number of possessions per game. 8* Under Blazers/Nuggets

8* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): For awhile there in Game 1, the Bucks had to be having flashbacks to LY’s Eastern Conference Semifinals as they were having all sorts of problems scoring against Miami. But thanks to Kris Middleton, who hit the GW in OT, the Bucks did win Game 1, 109-107. Winning a game where you shoot a horrendous 5 of 31 from three-point range is pretty huge in my book. You have to think that the Bucks, who were 4th in the league during the regular season in 3-point shooting (38.9%), will do better from distance in Game 2. Because of that, I’m laying the number tonight. 

Conversely, Miami should NOT feel good about losing Game 1. They made a franchise record 20 three-pointers (on 50 attempts!), meaning they outscored Milwaukee by 45 from behind the arc and still didn’t win. Also, hitting 20 threes and still only scoring 107 points (with overtime!) is pretty dreadful when you think about it. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo both struggled as they combined to go 8 of 37 from the field. As a team, the Heat made just 32.7% of their two-point attempts. They did cover, but just for the third time in their last 10 tries as a road underdog.

The previous two seasons saw Milwaukee come into the playoffs with the best regular season record in the league. They “flamed out” both times, losing in the Eastern Conference Finals to Toronto two years ago and then Miami in the semis last fall. This year’s team “only” finished third in the Eastern Conference standings, but I feel they’re a much better value vis a vis the rest of the field, at least compared to the L2 years. The Heat made a somewhat improbable playoff run in a “bubble” LY, but now the Bucks have home court advantage and I like them to go up 2-0 in the series. 8* Milwaukee

10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): I don’t think many could have predicted that the Knicks, who finished 21-45 SU in LY’s abbreviated regular season and thus weren’t even invited to the bubble, would have home court advantage for a first round playoff series. Then again, Atlanta is another team that went from “not being good enough for the bubble” to the playoffs this season. Two of the league’s most improved teams square off here in this first round series and I like the Hawks to take Game 1. Take the points. 

New York’s massive jump in the standings this season was largely a byproduct of their defense, which gave up a league-low 104.7 PPG in the regular season. The team also covered at a shocking rate, going 45-25-2  ATS, the best such mark in the league. There is no doubt that MSG, which will be near full capacity (15,000 fans), should be rocking Sunday night as it’s been a long time since the “World’s Most Famous Arena” hosted a playoff basketball game. But the Knicks feel like a very “public” side here and it’s rather curious the line is so short. Personally, I’m not shocked as I view these teams as being pretty even. 

The reason the Knicks have home court advantage for this series is because they went 3-0 head to head with the Hawks in the regular season. I don’t think NY has any distinct matchup advantage, so Atlanta is due to break through with a victory here. The Hawks led two of those three games at the half, so it’s not as if they played poorly. Since Nate McMillan took over as the interim HC, the Hawks are 27-11 SU. New York was pretty fortunate in close games down the stretch and I see things likely to go “the other way” for them here. 10* Atlanta

8* Boston (8:05 ET): The Nets are reportedly attracting plenty of action to win the NBA Finals. With the trio of Durant, Irving and Harden, it’s easy to see why they’d be so attractive to the public. But I am far less sold on this team’s championship prospects - at least in year one together. In the past, we’ve seen “super teams” (like the Heat in 2010) fail to meet their championship goal in their first season together. With this one, the three stars have spent a very limited amount of time on the court together (9 games, 202 total minutes). I’ll take the points with Boston in Game 1. 

The Celtics won the play-in game vs. Washington to become the #1 seed. They controlled most of the way and really took control in the third quarter where they outscored the Wizards 38-26. It ended up being a 118-100 final with Jayson Tatum’s 50 points leading the way. It will obviously be nowhere near that easy in this series, but Boston didn’t even shoot 40% on Tuesday and still won comfortably. It was that kind of mentality that led me to (successfully) take Memphis last night. 

Boston has covered its last three games. Brooklyn is on a 5-0 SU/ATS run. So something will have to give at the betting window tonight. With these teams being division rivals, there’s a sense of familiarity and typically the underdog (especially when getting this many points) is the way to go in such matchups. Now the Celtics did lose all three regular season meetings and are 0-5 SU/ATS L5 trips to Brooklyn. But HC Brad Stevens is 7-1 ATS his L8 first round playoff games and the Celtics are 6-1 ATS L7 as road dogs. 8* Boston