8* Indiana (7:05 ET):  Both the Pacers and Celtics will be looking to bounce back from losses their last times out. Boston, as a 4.5-point favorite, fell outright at home to Houston, which is rather embarrassing. But more embarrassing is what happened to Indiana - a 29-point loss at Atlanta on Sunday. That came on the heels of three consecutive SU wins as a dog, so previously the Pacers had been beating the oddsmakers projections, most notably a 99-91 upset of San Antonio in their most recent home game. The Celtics, who have been off since Friday, are just a .500 team on the road and have dropped two of three so far this year against Indiana. That has me on the home side, laying a short number here, as they are a perfect 2-0 ATS this year laying three points or less at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

It was the second game of a back to back and off a win, you might figure that the Pacers would be due for an off-night Saturday. But things quickly went awry in Atlanta and the team ended up scoring a season-low 75 points on just 37.9% shooting (5 of 24 from three-point range). Not to mention, they were only 4 of 7 from the free-throw line!  Paul George was just 3 of 15 from the field and finished w/ only seven points, well below his season average. Needless to say, we will see an increase in offensive output here from George and the Pacers now that they return home where they average a healthy 102.7 points per game. They also don't figure to end up on the wrong end of a 20-0 run again. Indiana has done really well in conference games this year, going 25-14 ATS. They are also 9-2 ATS on exactly two days rest.

Boston will be w/o a key defender for this one, that being Jae Crowder. That should allow George to have a big game. Offensively, the Celtics had been on fire since the All-Star Break, but them failing to break 100 against the woeful Rockets had to be a disappointment. With a big home game looming vs. Oklahoma City tomorrow night, don't be surprised if Boston gets caught "peeking ahead."  One of the more interesting tidbits with the Celtics under Brad Stevens is how much better they've been (ATS) when on no rest compared to rested. In the L3 years, they have been the best team in the league w/o rest at the betting window. Otherwise, they are basically a 50/50 proposition. This one goes to the home team. 8* Indiana

10* Ohio State (7:00 ET):  In handicapping the NIT, assessing individual teams' respective level of motivation is key. Now, normally, when we think of an unmotivated team, a disinterested favorite comes to mind. But keep in mind that (this year especially) there are a number of "mid major" schools who had aspirations of playing in the Big Dance that did not come to pass. One such squad is Akron, regular season champs out of the MAC. The 26-8 Zips were upset in the Final of their Conference Tourney, losing to Buffalo on a last second three-pointer. I feel that it is going to be very difficult for the players to get over that, especially considering the loss took place just four days ago. On the road, against a school from a "Power Conference," is not a good situation for the Zips at all. Lay the small number.

Ohio State had an ugly end to its Big 10 Tourney run as they had the misfortune of running into Michigan State. The final result there was 81-54 Sparty, the third time that the Buckeyes had lost to Tom Izzo's team over a three-week span. But Michigan State is actually the ONLY team to beat Ohio State since February 9th as the Buckeyes have won six of nine.  Granted, this was not Thad Matta's best team this year, but OSU still went 14-5 SU at home, holding visitors to an average of just 62.5 points per game. Something to consider is that this is Akron's first "true" road game since Feb 23rd when they lost outright at lowly Miami (OH). In fact, the Zips have lost three straight "true" road games.

Akron is likely to "live and die" by the three-point shot in this one and while OSU has been prone to letting teams shoot well from behind the arc, I'm just not convinced that the three-point shot alone can carry the Zips here. What I find to be more interesting is that Akron got away w/ its opponents (a much weaker schedule than OSU, obviously) shooting only 29.5% from three-point range, one of the lowest percentages in the entire country.  While it is tempting to take the "little guy" in this matchup of in-state foes, beware of the fact that Akron is probably far less interested to "be here" than is Ohio State. This is really a small number for the Buckeyes to be laying on their home court. 10* Ohio State

10* Dallas (7:05 ET):  There is no denying the vastly different directions these two teams have been trending in recently. Charlotte, who I've defended much of this year, has been on fire. They are not just 7-0 straight up (6-1 against the spread) in March, but 15-3 SU (13-5 ATS) their L18 games overall.  That's the longest active win streak in the league and as a result the Hornets are up to fifth in the East.  As for Dallas, well, they are 0-5 SU and ATS their last five overall and that has them down in eighth over in the West. I refuse to accept that the Mavs are this bad, in fact, they've actually been competitive in every game during this losing streak of theirs. The line looks just a little bit high to me here and as a result, I'm taking the points.

Twice this season, we have seen the Mavs close as road underdogs of 6.5 to 9 points. Both times they not only covered, but also took the game straight up.  It is interesting that they have been favored in eight of the last 10 games, including four of five during this losing streak, which has seen them fall by seven points or less in all of those.  Saturday saw them 112-105 at home to Indiana. The Pacers were 27 of 29 from the free-throw line, which was very key, especially in what was a one-point game multiple times in the fourth quarter. Not only is this Dallas' longest losing streak of this season, it is the league's longest active losing streak.  Simply put, this is "must win" territory for Rick Carlisle's team, who has upcoming games vs. Cleveland, Golden State and Portland. 

The Mavericks have won 19 of 22 all-time meetings w/ the Hornets. One of those three losses took place very early this season, 108-94 as 3.5-point favorites. Dallas didn't shoot well (39%), but Charlotte did (49.4%) and lately we have seen the Hornets' offensive numbers continue to exceed YTD levels. During the seven-game win streak, they are averaging 118 points per game (43.1% 3-pt shooting). For the season, they average only 103.3 PPG. Eventually, they are going to have to start regressing back to that average. One more win and they would match the franchise's longest win streak this century. Another loss for Dallas and they are under .500 for the first time since November 10th. Hopefully, you can see where I'm going with this one as the "law of averages" dictates taking the points, if not expecting an outright win entirely. 10* Dallas

10* New York (9:05 ET):  Recently, I've had a good pulse on when to take the Knicks. Last Saturday, they were a generous seven-point dog (at home) against the Pistons and came through with a big 102-89 upset.  The result was even better on Wednesday as they dismantled Phoenix, on the road, 128-97 in game where the public had bet them to the role of underdog.  Now, HC Kurt Rambis' tenure hasn't gone particularly well and the team did lose Friday on the road to the Clippers, 101-94 (but left w/ the cash as 10.5-pt dogs). But getting to stay in LA and dropping in class to play the Lakers should be to their liking. The Lakers still are getting too much residual credit for that shocking upset of the Warriors last Sunday. Lay the short number.

I certainly don't have much regard for this Lakers team and in fact have had them right at the bottom of my own personal power ratings for much of the season, even below Philadelphia.  Right now, the two are neck and neck. Whereas Philly's problem lies on the offensive end, the Lakers issue clearly is defense, or a lack of it. All season long, they have been dead last in terms of efficiency and currently they allow 109.2 points per 100 possessions.  They allow 107.1 per game and just gave up 120 in Thursday's loss to Cleveland, falling behind by as many as 17 in the fourth quarter. Of course, offense is also an issue with this team as they also rank dead last in the league in terms of "true" shooting. After watching Kobe Bryant, the league's worst jump shooter by far, go 11 for 16 the last game, suffice to say he won't be repeating that performance again.

The Knicks just had their way w/ another bad defensive team (Phoenix) the other night, so I look for the offense to come alive here after shooting just 41 percent against the Clippers, who had too much offensive might of their own for NY to compete.  But one bright spot for the Knicks there was the play of Kristaps Porzingis, who went for 23 points Friday. The Knicks did down the Lakers, 99-95, earlier in the year.  That was despite shooting less than 40% from the floor. They are 5-1 ATS this season on the road if the total is between 205 and 209.5. 10* New York

8* LA Clippers (3:30 ET): The Cavs are 2-0 on the current road trip, but by no means has it been easy. First, they were tooth and nail with the lowly Kings all the way into the fourth quarter (trailed 60-54 at halftime) on Wednesday. The following night, in LA, I took them and it took awhile to shake the sorry Lakers. Eventually, they won 120-108 as a 9.5-point choice. But after being fortunate enough to play the two worst defensive teams in the league, back to back, Cleveland will find things much more challenging here as they stay in Los Angeles to take on the Clippers. My own personal power rating disagree w/ them being favored in this spot as the difference between the two is fairly negligible.  Take the points.

The Clippers are off a win, 101-94 over the Knicks. But they did not take the cash as they were favored by 10.5 in that spot. At halftime of that game, it certainly appeared as if they would cover as they held a double digit lead thanks to shooting 51.2 percent. But a 15-point third quarter changed all that.  All five starters did score in double figures, but the problem was a bench that ran just four deep and added just 20 points. Taking points at home is rare for the Clips though. This will be just the seventh time it's happened this season and they are 4-2 against the spread. Overall, they are 22-11 SU at the Staples Center this season, outscoring opponents by 6.2 points per game. They are also a strong 20-7 SU vs. the Eastern Conference.

These teams met in Cleveland in late January and the Cavs prevailed 115-102 as 6.5-point favorites. One key was Cleveland going 13 of 27 from three-point range compared to just 6 of 25 for the Clippers.  For the record, these two teams average the same # of three-pointers made per game (10) for the year and the Clips have a slightly better percentage. Los Angeles also did themselves no favors by missing 12 of 36 free throws back in Cleveland.  I don't imagine we'll be seeing such lopsided shooting percentages in the Cavs' favor this afternoon and you have to remember this team has not been very good at the betting window all year, including 24-32 ATS as a favorite (they are one of just three East Conf teams below 50% ATS overall!).  I just don't agree with the road team being favored here. 8* LA Clippers

8* Under Purdue/Michigan State (3:00 ET):  For the first time since January 20th, Michigan State failed to cover on Saturday, only beating Maryland 64-61 in the Big 10 semis. I'll call for another streak to come to an end here, that being Sparty's streak of going Over seven straight times vs. Purdue. I ran through my rationale for playing Unders in the semis and beyond in these various conference tourneys in the Kentucky-A&M analysis and I sure wish I would have taken my own advice in the two Big 10 semis, both of which stayed Under the total. I already mentioned MSU beating Maryland 64-61 and earlier in the day Purdue took care of business against Michigan, winning 76-59. Like that Kentucky-Texas A&M matchup in the SEC, the one regular season game these two teams played went Over only because of overtime. Take the Under here.

Michigan State is probably gunning for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but Purdue will certainly be a formidable opponent. The Boilermakers have won both of their Tourney games by double digits, first crushing Illinois 89-58 before handling what was a desperate Michigan team yday afternoon.  That's an average of just 58.5 points allowed in the two games and for the season the team is allowing fewer than 65 points per game. In four neutral court games, they are allowing just under 60 PPG.  The edition of Michigan State is a lot more prolific from three-point range than previous ones, but the Boilers are holding teams to just 29% shooting from behind the arc (even lower in their two tourney games!), which is a real key.

Now Purdue has been shooting the lights out recently.  Yesterday marked their sixth consecutive game at better than 51 percent from the field and the first five all went Over the total. But for evidence of Michigan State's defensive prowess (like you even need any), look no further than yday's performance against Maryland, who was just one day removed from scoring a Big 10 Tournament record 97 points. Tom Izzo's defense held the Terps to 15 points below their overall season average and it was a similar strong effort Friday vs. Ohio State, who scored only 54 points. The two opponents have shot just 27.3 percent from three-point range. 8* Under Purdue/Michigan State

10* Arkansas Little Rock (1:00 ET):  These were the top two teams in the Sun Belt during the regular season and the tournament format clearly favored them w/ the double byes into the semifinals. Both Arkansas Little Rock and (much to my chagrin) LA Monroe won comfortably on Saturday as the former downed LA Lafayette 72-65 while the latter took care of UT Arlington 81-72.  Both covered the respective spreads.  Covering the spread is something LA Monroe has done quite a bit in the past vs. today's counterpart (6-0 ATS L6), but I look for that trend to come to an end Sunday for this potential "bid thief" as the top seed (only four SU losses) is just too strong this year and will move on w/ relative ease to the NCAA Tournament.

It was two close games during the regular season between these two w/ the home team winning both.  However, LA Monroe was a big 11-pt dog at Little Rock when they lost 58-57 on January 9th. One month later, they pulled a minor upset (were +2), beating the Trojans 86-82. That was one of just three Sun Belt losses for ALR, who outscored conference foes by a dominating 9.4 points per game this year. Had the Trojans not dropped a meaningless regular season finale (at Appalachian State), they would have finished as the only three-loss team in the country.  Yet, given all the upsets we've seen over the past week, I'm not convinced they will make the NCAA Tournament though if they were to fall here. This is not like the UConn-Memphis game in the American where one team knows it is safely in while the other must win.  ALR will absolutely "show up" ready to go.

I went against LA Monroe yday and was clearly disappointed at the result there. Early on, things looked great from my perspective. UT Arlington actually raced out to a 12-0 lead, but from there it was all Warhawks.  The keys were ULM shooting 13 of 27 from three-point range and getting a career-high 21 points from DeMondre Harvey.  Note that for the year, Arkansas Little Rock holds teams to just 59.8 PPG and 30.8% shooting from three-point range. The current win streak of 10 games is the longest for ULM in 22 seasons, but it comes to an end here.  10* Arkansas Little Rock

10* Under Kentucky/Texas A&M (1:00 ET):  Throughout the conference tournaments, we've been targeting Unders in the late rounds (semis/finals) as it only seems logical that the more times a team has to play in a short period of time, the more likely the respective offenses are to be adversly affected. Also, in the vast majority of these tournaments, there is no home court advantage as both sides are playing at a relatively unfamiliar site. Finally, given the stakes involved, we are less likely to have a wide open game.  For Sunday's SEC Championship, I am on the Under as Texas A&M really showed me something yesterday by holding LSU to just 38 points. It won't be that easy here against Kentucky, but then again the Wildcats are due for a decline in shooting from yday anyway.

These teams met just once during the regular season. The game, won 79-77 by A&M at home, did go Over the total, but that was only because of overtime. It was tied at 68 at the end of regulation.  In doing my research for this matchup, I was shocked to find that was the third time in the last four meetings these teams have gone to OT.  The total was much lower (119.5) in LY's meeting in College Station, but was actually only 53-53 at the end of regulation and ended up going to double overtime (UK won 70-64).  The 2014 meeting in College Station (which had a O/U line of 128.5) was a 62-62 game at the end of regulation before UK came through with a 72-68 victory.  So clearly, Under bettors have gotten a "raw deal" in this rivalry. Hopefully, we avoid overtime here, because if we do, then I see this one staying well below the number.

Now, Kentucky (who is favored here) did just score 93 points yday in a wild semifinal win over Georgia (trailed much of the game). That was the fourth straight UK game to go Over. But they shot 56 percent in the second half and clearly they're not going to be able to do that here against a Texas A&M team that just got done completely bottling up Ben Simmons and LSU, who barely shot 20 percent and turned in the lowest scoring game by any major conference team this season.  For the season, the Aggies allow just 65.9 PPG and I don't see them allowing 10 made three-pointers again here like they did in the regular season matchup w/ UK.  At the same time, Kentucky's defense (67.6 PPG allowed for the season) should be dramatically better here than it was in the first half yday when they allowed Georgia to shoot better than 60 percent, including six made three-pointers.  10* Under Kentucky/Texas A&M

10* New Orleans (7:35 ET):  It was a tough loss for the Pelicans last night as they fell in Memphis, 121-114 in overtime.  The injury-riddled Grizzlies strung together multiple career-best performances from a rag-tag group of players. The Pelicans' defensive numbers and road record should certainly give us pause, but fortunately for tonight bettors seem willing to lay the points with an equally bad Milwaukee team.  The Bucks are off a surprising result; that being a 114-108 win (here at home) over Miami as 3.5-pt dogs. But consider that the first time these teams played, the Pelicans won by 17 and that's despite the Bucks shooting 52.7% overall, including 6 of 15 from three-point range and they were 83.3% from the line....and they still lost! Take the points.

New Orleans has actually beaten Milwaukee six straight times (17-2 L19 meetings!) and a big reason for that is Anthony Davis, who has averaged 28.5 PPG the last four times they've played. Davis will certainly be the best player on the floor tonight and last night, he turned in 25 pts and 13 rebounds. Lately, he's been getting lots of help from PG Jrue Holliday (34 pts last night).  Unfortunately, the team has still dropped six of seven, though many of those defeats have been close. Every one has been by single digits, including two by a combined seven pts.  Last night was an overtime game and they've also had to play San Antonio during this stretch.  My own personal power ratings have these teams rated dead even, so the points are a premium here.

Milwaukee isn't favored often and when they are, results are mixed (7-7).  Tonight marks the most points that they will have had to lay in any game since before Christmas when they hosted Philadelphia.  Off a SU win this year, they are only 10-16 SU.  Just twice since Feb 1 have they posted B2B victories. It is important to remember that this is a bad team, one that is being outscored by essentially four points per game. It's also important to note that just like they are here, they were at home after their two previous wins and both times they lost.  With this number being driven up, the value is on the dog here.  10* New Orleans

10* Under Seton Hall/Villanova (5:30 ET): Watching yday's Villanova-Providence game, where I had the Under, I was feeling very confident throughout. It was a 32-27 game at halftime (total was 140.5), meaning it would have taken quite the high scoring second half to put the game Over. With just 10 minutes remaining in the second half (three-quarters of the way through the game), only 93 total pts had been scored. Incredibly, we then got more than 50 in the final 10 minutes as the game did in fact sneak Over the total. Overall, it was the eighth straight 'Nova game that went Over. It's been a similar story w/ Seton Hall (five straight Overs), but tonight I'm forecasting a bit of regression to the mean as both teams are playing a third game in three days and my play is on the Under.

Both of Villanova's tournament games have followed a similar patter w/ low-scoring first halves and then high scoring second halves.  The discrepancy was even more pronounced in Thursday's 81-67 win over Georgetown as just 55 total pts were scored in the 1H, but 93 in the 2H.  After those two frustrating losses for Under bettors, I believe tonight will be their night. Defensively, the Wildcats are more solid than they're given credit for as they allow only 63.5 PPG. They've allowed more than that in seven of their last eight games, so I expect a better effort on that end of the floor here. On the offensive end, I see them as likely to cool down after averaging 82.6 PPG on 51.5% shooting the last five games.

Seton Hall has solidified itself as a NCAA Tournament team with wins over Creighton and Xavier the last two days.  They shot better than 50% both games while averaging 84 PPG, obviously a very high number. I just can't see that continuing.  Historically, teams tend to wear down as these conference tourneys progress.  The last time these teams played, the game just snuck Over the total (by three), but the previous four matchups had all stayed Under.  The Pirates last five games have been drastically higher scoring than the five before that and I think it's telling where this number opened and all the early money came in on the Under. 10* Under Seton Hall/Villanova

10* UT Arlington (4:30 ET):  The Mavericks of UT Arlington came into the year as the favorites in the Sun Belt, but a season-ending injury to leading scorer Kevin Hervey threatened to derail their entire campaign.  Remember that this is a team that delivered B2B non-conference road wins over Ohio State and Memphis back in November!  Since Hervey has gone down, the team is just 4-11 against the spread, but note that they were favored in the vast majority of those games and have still managed a winning straight up record, including 4-0 here in March. In yday's quarterfinal victory over Texas State, the final score was 72-63, but the Mavericks just missed out on covering as 9.5-pt chalk. Maybe you're surprised here that they are a slight favorite over the team w/ a bye (LA Monroe), but don't be. Lay the short number.

Now, UT Arlington did need to rally back from a small halftime deficit yday. But they closed strong and honestly, I'd rather them save "their best" for this game as opposed to the previous game. This is a double revenge spot for the Mavericks, who dropped both regular season matchups to LA Monroe despite being favored in both games. (Hervey did not play in either game). The last time they met, it was a close game, 64-61 in Arlington as the Warhawks closed as seven-point dogs.  I can't see the Mavericks losing for a third time and it's telling that they are still favored here despite LA Monroe being off the bye.  Something you probably did not know is that UT Arlington is first in the country in rebounding, 12th in assists and 31st in points per game. They shot only 38.1% from the field last night (28.1% from 3-pt range), a number we should see go up here.

LA Monroe comes into this game on a nine-game win streak, so to some it is curious that they are the underdog here.  Four of those wins were by five points or less, however, and their overall record remains worse than that of UT-Arlington. Before this nine-game win streak started, the Warhawks were only 10-12 SU. UT Arlington has won 9 of 11 themselves and the two losses were a) to Monroe by three and b) to SBC regular season champ Ark Little Rock on the road.  The Mavericks have 10 wins away from home compared to just six for LA Monroe and a greater scoring margin in conference play. 10* UT Arlington

8* UConn (3:00 ET):  This is a little contrarian here as UConn is coming off yday's incredible 4OT win over Cincinnati, so the fact they are w/o rest will have most bettors willing to line up against them.  But it is telling that they remain favored over the #1 seed in this American Tourney, that being Temple.  The top-seeded Owls are perhaps the weakest #1 seed in any major conference tournament and I have to believe this line would have been a lot higher were it not for yday's marathon effort from the Huskies.  Interestingly enough, both regular season meetings saw Temple upset UConn, so the precedent is there. However, both games were very close and I can't help but think the Huskies will be energized not only by what happened yesterday, but by the double revenge angle as well. Lay the number.

UConn was favored in both regular season games vs. Temple, first by 10 at home, then by five on the road. Yes, they did lose both games. But using those lines as a barometer, I can't help but think we're getting a great value here on the Huskies, especially because the public perception will be that the team is "too tired" and at a major disadvantage playing the second of back to back games.  Were this their third game in as many days, I might be inclined to agree, but the bottom line is that UConn had four days off prior to yesterday.  I think the "fatigue factor" is somewhat overrated this time of year and the players are going to be just fine here. Remember that they have four players averaging double figures in points.

Temple won yday by a score of 89-72 over a bad South Florida team, so that's serving to bring the line down as well.  But this Owls team is incredibly shaky as a #1 seed given that they were just +3.0 PPG in conference play despite a 15-4 SU record.  Over the course of the entire season, they were only able to outscore opponents by just under two points per game, yet won over two-thirds of their games.  I can only assume that "the world" was waiting to line up to bet against UConn here, but Temple just happens to be the wrong team to take. For the sake of comparison, the Huskies are outscoring opponents by 10.0 PPG this year. 8* UConn

8* Dallas (2:05 ET):  The Mavs and Pacers seem to be two teams trending in opposite directions. But is recent form truly indicative of overall play this season? I think not. Dallas has lost four straight games, three of them at home and three of them as favorites. But all of those games were close, save for Monday's 109-90 loss to the Clippers and even that one saw them have the lead at halftime.  They've now dropped into eighth place in the Western Conference, a precarious place to be sure. I cannot see them losing again, especially at home, and Indiana seems to be getting "too much credit" for its (admittedly impressive) upset of San Antonio Monday night. I look for a reversal of recent fortunes here.

While the Pacers did beat the Spurs, 99-91 as 6.5-point home dogs, they have had their troubles w/ the Western Conference this season. They're still only 12-14 straight up and an even worse 8-18 against the spread in non-conference games.  It's been B2B upsets for them (won at Washington last Saturday) and overall the team is 4-1 ATS its last five games. But they still have a losing road record and it's highly unlikely that the Mavs shoot 35.4% here, which is what the Spurs (4 of 28 on three-point attempts) did Monday night, their season-low. Also, it should be pointed out that San Antonio was w/o HC Greg Popovich (family emergency). Indiana's defense generally isn't that great (101.9 PPG allowed) and Dallas can score.

Now, the Mavs are off B2B sub-100 point games, which is a rarity for them. Previously, they'd topped the century mark in ten straight games.  Still w/ a winning record at home, the team averages 104.6 PPG here at home and overall it rates in the top eight in terms of offensive efficiency.  There was some sketchy officiating in Wednesday's home loss to Detroit (technical foul called on Deron Williams).  Keep in mind that this is now Dallas' longest losing streak of the entire season. Thus, we're now able to get them at essentially a pick 'em at home, a great value all things considered. It was an ugly 26-point loss in Indiana back in December, but the line for that game was 4.5, so I can't see how the Mavs aren't favored in this situation. 8* Dallas

8* LSU (1:00 ET):  Anything short of winning the SEC Tournament probably means LSU won't be in the field of 68 next week, thereby denying us the opportunity to watch the top NBA prospect in the country (Ben Simmons) on the grandest stage.  So, yes, there will be a tremendous sense of urgency from the Bayou Bengals this afternoon as they take on top seeded Texas A&M. They had little difficulty w/ 12-seed Tennessee yday, winning 84-75 and covering as 5.5-pt chalk. I was less inclined to back LSU as a favorite, but now taking points against an A&M side that was quite fortunate to cover yday as 5.5-pt faves themselves (never led by more than the final margin of six!). Take the points here.

These teams met twice during the regular season, each winning at home. Given that the line was +7.5 in College Station, this looks like a strong value.  That game came at a time when A&M was playing really well and the final score was a bit misleading in the sense that the score was tied 44-44 w/ 15 minutes remaining. But LSU was held to just 23 pts in the second half and Simmons 10 for the entire game. On Feb 13, the Tigers got their revenge, however, winning 76-71 as Simmons went for 16-11-7 and this time the team scored 43 pts after halftime. A&M hasn't lost since, but one certainly has to question their level of motivation this weekend as they're pretty much locked into being a 4 or 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament and really have little to play for.

I think that the most encouraging sign for LSU coming out of yday's game was the fact that they prevailed comfortably despite playing w/o Simmons for the final 15 minutes of the first half (foul trouble).  This team has generally struggled outside of Baton Rouge this season, but with their season at stake, I'm expecting to get their best here. Remember only ONE top seed (Chattanooga) has won its conference tourney so far and A&M is only 9-9-1 ATS vs. conference foes this year with an average margin of victory less than seven points per game.  This one comes down to the fact that one side has a whole lot more to play for and that side is getting a generous number of points.  8* LSU

8* Michigan (1:00 ET):  Firmly on the bubble, Michigan did themselves a big favor yday w/ a win over top seed Indiana in the Big 10 quarterfinals as 7.5-pt dogs. The 72-69 win came on a last-second three-pointer and while it had to feel good, by no means is the Wolverines' work done here in Indianapolis.  A win here over Purdue, themselves coming off a very impressive win yday, would go a long way for the contingent from Ann Arbor. Because Purdue won in such blowout fashion Friday, 89-58 over Illinois, they come into this rubber match clearly overvalued.  The spread is a few points too high as consider the Boilermakers were a 1.5-pt dog in Ann Arbor the last time these teams met, and they lost.  Take the points.

Anything that could go right, did, for Purdue yday.  They shot 58.3 percent to 39.3 for Illinois and were +18 in rebounding differential.  They made 13 of 27 three-pointers, highly irregular for a team that averages only eight makes per game from behind the arc.  Winning by that kind of margin is largely irregular for the Boilermakers. While they do come into this contest off three straight double digit wins, that's above their season long average margin of victory in Big 10 play of +7.5 PPG.  In the two regular season meetings vs. Michigan, they were a little fortunate in that the Wolverines have shot only 37% overall from the field. I expect the Maize and Blue to shoot significantly better here as how long can Purdue sustain their current level of 3-pt FG% defense (29.3 percent)?

Playing with one or less days rest, Michigan is 3-0 ATS this season. They are 5-1 ATS in neutral site games as well.  They're the more motivated side here as they probably need a win here and maybe even tomorrow as well.  Note that despite shooting only 5 of 20 from three-point range last month vs. Purdue, the Wolverines still won. Obviously, it's been two very narrow wins so far in this tournament, one in overtime and one at the buzzer.  But it's unusual for Michigan to be getting this many points. They covered taking 9.5 at Maryland last month and then obviously won outright yday.  Those are the only two times since the beginning of February they've taken this many points. 8* Michigan

10* Tulsa (9:00 ET):  This will be the fourth quarterfinal of the day in the American Conference Tourney and I think we have a great value here w/ a Tulsa team trying to play its way into the Big Dance. Not only is Memphis a team I've exclusively played AGAINST this season (the Tigers are 11-16 ATS in all games), but this is a revenge spot for the favored Golden Hurricane, who lost outright as 2.5-point road favorites in Memphis in the second to last regular season game. Getting to now lay a near identical number at a neutral setting is a blessing as far as I'm concerned as there's no denying which team has been better throughout the campaign.  Tulsa is not only 48-9 SU as a favorite the last three seasons, but also 37-19 ATS vs. conference foes. Lay the small number here.

The Golden Hurricane concluded its regular season w/ an 84-74 win over South Florida.  Though they failed to cover there as lofty 16.5-pt favorites, it was a nice bounce back nevertheless from the loss to Memphis. Coming into the weekend, Tulsa is squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble as the venerable Joe Lunardi currently has them among the first four teams OUT of the field of 68.  That means a loss here is something they simply can't afford and honestly they probably have to at least get to the finals.  Having played just one game in the last 12 days, and that was six days ago, they should be more than ready for this game.  A 5-2 ATS record when seeking to revenge a road loss is also encouraging.

The Memphis program has clearly regressed under HC Josh Pastner, so I'm not surprised at all to see them come in as the six seed here. The Tigers have had to play twice since upsetting Tulsa on Feb 28, first losing at Temple (72-62) and then beating up on a bad East Carolina team, 83-53.  That loss to Temple is significant because it dropped the Tigers to 1-6 ATS coming off a conference win this season. They are just 3-8 SU outside of Memphis this year due to giving up over 80 points per game.  They shot nearly 54% vs. Tulsa the first time, which won't be repeated here, nor will Tulsa's 7 for 25 shooting from three-point range. Honestly, I am anticipating a blowout in this one. 10* Tulsa

10* Detroit (7:05 ET): Yes, I fully remember going against the Pistons two nights ago while pointing out their striking home vs. road dichotomy. They "got one over on me," beating the Mavs 102-96 as 2.5-point dogs.  Remember though, in Detroit's previous game, I was on them and they rolled to a 20-point victory (at home) against previously red-hot Portland.  While B2B minor upsets might normally give me pause, it is the Hornets that should be more worried about regression here as they've now won five in a row while averaging over 116 PPG, which is well above their season average. I've questioned Charlotte as a favorite before (won taking the points against them Monday) and will do so again here. Take the points.

The Hornets have hardly "had it rough" of late w/ recent games against the likes of Phoenix, Philadelphia, Minnesota and New Orleans.  I do anticipate that this line will continue to get bet up, so you may want to wait a little bit before actually placing your wager.  It has been six seasons since the Hornets had a six-game win streak, which is what they are gunning for here. Without question, Kemba Walker has been the catalyst during this win streak w/ four straight 30+ games. But how long can one player carry his team offensively?  Again, the Hornets have been facing some really bad defensive teams of late.  While their ATS record as a favorite is almost identical their record as an underdog, I think we're starting to reach a point where this team is becoming overvalued. After all, a 9-3 ATS run is sure to start regressing to the mean, sooner rather than later, right?

  The Pistons don't necessarily shoot the ball well, but they already have more wins than they did at the end of last season and SVG clearly has them trending in the right direction. With Chicago's loss last night, they are now in the eighth place position by themselves in the Eastern Conference. Certainly, they don't want to concede that right back.  Unlike Charlotte, I'm not sure we've reached "peak Pistons" yet.  In what shapes up as a pretty even battle on paper, taking the points is the way to go.  10* Detroit

8* Under Providence/Villanova (6:30 ET):  These conference tournaments are arguably tougher on teams because unlike the NCAA Tournament, there's often no days off between games and eventually that starts to wear on the players. Last week, in the smaller conferences, I did quite well for myself by betting the Under in the final rounds of several conference tourneys and now that the more marquee leagues have reached a similar point, I'll adopt the same strategy.  Here, in our first Big East semifinal of the night, we have a Villanova team that has gone Over in its last seven games, most recently yday's 81-67 win over Georgetown. Providence did not go Over the total yday in its win over Butler, but shot 55.4% from the field, which I clearly don't see them matching here. Take the Under.

Over its last five games, Villanova is averaging a whopping 84 points per game, which is well above its overall season average of 77.3 PPG and even more above its scoring average outside of Philadelphia (73.6 PPG).  So we're due to see a decrease in scoring from them. Yesterday, it was only a 28-27 game at the half vs. G'town before an offensive explosion took place in the final 20 minutes w/ the two teams combining for 93 points, 53 of them coming from the Nova side.  The key, without question, for the Wildcats was making 13 of 21 three-point attempts. That will be tough to do here against Providence, who is allowing opponents to shoot just 31.8% from behind the arc. In the two regular season matchups, Nova connected on only 14 of 53 three-point attempts against the Friars.

Similar to Villanova's performance yday, Providence shot better than 60 percent in the second half vs. Butler.  Ben Bentil led the way with 38 points and I would look for a sharp decline here in both team and individual performance.  Villanova is holding teams to an average of just 63.4 PPG on 39.6% shooting for the year.  All four of Providence's neutral site games this year have stayed Under the total.  After scoring 90 pts in the regular season finale (vs. sorry St. John's) and then last night's hot shooting, the Friars (like Nova) are due to regress offensively. While one regular season meeting went Over and the other Under, tonight's number is higher than both of those contests. 8* Under Providence/Villanova

8* Bowling Green (6:30 ET):  We've already seen a number of top seeds drop in the mid-major conferences, so I see no reason why the MAC's #1 team, Akron, would be exempt from suffering the same fate.  The Zips had all sorts of trouble with Eastern Michigan yday, winning only 65-63 as a five-point choice.  Curiously, they are now a bigger favorite in the next round against Bowling Green, who has pulled two upsets to get here. Granted, the Falcons are a low-seed in this tournament and did lose by 35 at Akron in late February. But I don't see the justification for them getting more points here in Cleveland than they did at Akron. After ending the regular season on a 1-10 ATS slide, the underdog Falcons clearly have some "momentum" here. Take the points.

Akron's big win over BG two weeks ago was actually nothing new. They've taken the last six meetings, covering the spread in five of them w/ one push. But one thing I've noticed about these Zips is that they seem to have a bit of a "glass jaw" away from home. While they were a perfect 15-0 SU at home this year, they are only 10-7 SU on the road/in neutral site games and yday saw them down by as many as 12 in the second half vs. an Eastern Michigan team that simply is not that great.  Sure, Akron fans can point to the fact that their team shot only 33.9 percent overall, including 9 of 33 from three-point range, and still win. But it's not as if the Zips have been regularly shooting the ball well anyway.  One would have to go all the way back to the final game of January to find the last time they were above 50% from the field.

As for Bowling Green, they've now shot better than 50% in three consecutive games in what is turning into a bit of a Cinderella run. I'll go back to their pointspread woes (1-10 L11) at the end of the regular season as a sign that the Falcons were due to turn things around here in the MAC Tournament. First, they knocked off Kent State in a "true" road game Wednesday, then yday it was a three-point win over Central Michigan here in Cleveland. Both games featured second half comebacks.  It's "that time of year" and you just get the feeling that BG has a bit of "lady luck" on its shoulders, so I anticipate them staying within this number. 8* Bowling Green

10* Cleveland (10:35 ET):  Since Feb 1, the Lakers are 10-5 ATS, which has to be a bit of a surprise. Of course, the biggest surprise of them all took place Sunday as they stunned the Warriors w/ a 112-95 win as 17.5-point home dogs. I called for a letdown the following game, but it didn't happen as they ended up defeating Orlando 107-98 as a 3.5-point dog here at home.  But I'll look for the run to end here with a visit from Cleveland, who picked up a much needed win last night in Sacramento and a strong finish to that game should carry over here. My own personal power ratings suggest the Cavs should be about a 13-point favorite in this one, so there's definitely a little value.  Lay the points.

All season long, I've been hammering home that road teams playing the second game of a back to back are typically undervalued. That appears to be the case w/ Cleveland here, even though this is certainly a significant number of points to be laying on the road. While it was only a nine-point win in Cleveland for the Cavs the last time these two met, note that they did lead by 19 entering the fourth quarter and that was after losing Kevin Love to an injury in the first half.  After a relatively sluggish first half, the Cavs busted loose for 66 points in the second half last night against Sacramento. I find it interesting that while the Kings may be the worst team in the league in terms of points allowed per game, the Lakers rank last in defensive efficiency, so what I'm saying here is to expect another big offensive game from LeBron and company here.

The hype for this game will be centered around the fact that it is the final meeting between James and Kobe Bryant.  The latter did not play Tuesday, but given the circumstance here, I expect he will suit up and take the court. This will, of course, only hamper the Lakers offense.  Almost entirely due to Kobe, the Lakers are the worst shooting team in the entire league.  Note that this is just the third time all year that the Lakers have been off B2B wins. The first two instances saw them have to play the Warriors and Spurs, so not surprisingly, there hasn't been a single three-game win streak all season. 10* Cleveland

10* Creighton (9:30 ET):  A team like Seton Hall, who is all but assured of making the NCAA Tournament at this point, can be somewhat of a dangerous proposition in this instance as they are laying points to a team playing w/ "nothing to lose."  Now the Pirates have been a strong bet for much of this year as they finished the regular season 19-9 against the spread.  But they were only 9-7 ATS when favored, meaning much of the real "damage" was done as an underdog, so I like the value we're getting here w/ Creighton in the spoiler role. These teams exchanged road wins during the regular season w/ Seton Hall last winning in Omaha, by 10 as 5.5-point dogs, back on January 30th. This is a 'pick em type contest from where I sit, so I'll take the points.

Now Creighton's regular season did not end all that well as they've lost four of their last five.  But their last three defeats have all been by five points or less.  They put up 93 points in the regular season finale, but that was not enough against Xavier, who scored 98.  I fully expect the defense to "tighten up" here, but as for the offense remember it was just three games ago that they hit the century mark, albeit against St. John's.  Though you might not be able to discern this from simply looking at the number of points allowed per game (72.8), this was actually the Blue Jays' best defensive season (in terms of efficiency) under HC McDermott as they ranked in the top 50 nationally and fourth overall in the Big East.

Speaking of defense, Seton Hall is allowing the opposition to shoot just 26.4% from three-point range! Can that really continue?  That will be tough.  Yes, I did take the Pirates about ten days ago when they beat Xavier outright.  But that took place on their home floor.  Something I find interesting is that despite Seton Hall being 4.5 games better overall than Creighton, the two teams PPG differential is essentially dead even. Again, that tells  me that we have more of a pick 'em type contest than one that Seton Hall should be favored.  Do not be surprised if Seton Hall's 67% free throw shooting comes back to bite them here. 10* Creighton

8* Butler (2:30):  This is a 4 vs. 5 (seed) matchup in the Big East Tournament with the latter favored despite having lost to the former twice during the regular season. That should tell you something right there. But those two wins now seem like "forever ago" and the bottom line is that a Providence team few believed in to begin with has faded badly down the stretch. Sure, the Friars concluded their regular season with three straight victories. But two of those came at the expense of DePaul and St. John's, the two worst teams in the league. Prior to that, they had dropped five of six. Meanwhile, Butler has won seven of nine (8-1 ATS) w/ the only losses coming at the hands of Xavier and Villanova (top two in the Big East). We've got teams trending in opposite directions as they head toward the NCAA Tournament. Lay the points.

It's not like either regular season matchup was a blowout either. The first saw Butler, at home, actually enjoy a 36-25 halftime advantage. But they shot only 3 of 17 from three-point range and would go on to lose 81-73 as a 7.5-point favorite.  That's a 56-point second half for the Friars, if you're keeping score at home, and at the time they were 13-1 straight up.  Three weeks later, it was a three-point Providence win at home as they again rallied late after trailing for much of the second half. Butler is now just 1-5 SU/ATS vs. Providence since becoming conference foes, but I'll go ahead and back the double revenge angle as I simply cannot see Providence beating them for a third time this season.

As I mentioned earlier, Butler is clearly playing a lot better right now.  They closed the regular season w/ a 21-point win at home over Marquette. They led by 19 at halftime, shot 56 percent from the floor and got 36 bench points. While that sounds like a call for regression is in order, note this team has averaged 90 PPG its last three and averages 81.3 PPG. Over the last 11 games, they've averaged 79.5 PPG w/ 42 percent shooting from three-point range. The key for them seems to be getting to 80 pts as they are 15-0 SU when they do.  Something interesting is that Providence only shoots 41.7% from the floor. I don't see them keeping pace here. 8* Butler

8* Duke (2:30 ET): This seems like a bit of a curious number, no? You have Duke, favored, despite playing yday and not covering against a NC State team that was just beaten by Notre Dame, the opponent here.  That seemed curious to me at first, but judging by power rankings this line actually seems too low. Duke did lose outright, at home, to the Fighting Irish in the regular season. But they were 8.5-point favorites in that one and if you factor out the home court edge, they still should be -4.5 in this instance. Now, you could make the argument that the loss coupled with playing w/ no rest should make the line even lower, but the bottom line is I expect the Blue Devils (#3 in offensive efficiency) to "circle the wagons" here and surprise. Lay the short number.

Notre Dame is similar to Duke in the sense that they rank very high in offensive efficiency (#4), but are not good defensively (#189!). That defensive rating makes Duke (#113) look positively stout by comparison!  Duke not only has revenge from the regular season, but also LY's ACC Tournament. Overall, they've dropped four of five to the Irish, so I expect this game to carry a ton of weight with the Blue Devil players. While their lack of depth could ultimately become a problem, the bottom line is they played extraordinarily well yday.  They shot better than 52 percent from the floor and turned the ball over only four times. I suppose you could point to the fact they still barely won, but I don't anticipate the Irish being as hot here as NC State was yesterday.

Notre Dame's offensive numbers had curtailed in losses to both Florida State and Miami, but like Duke, they had their way w/ NC State, scoring 89 pts on 50 percent shooting.  The previous five games all saw them fail to break 72 points, their season average away from South Bend, and those were against some of the ACC's lesser teams.  Duke had not shot well for three straight games before yday and while their defensive numbers may not have impressed vs. the Wolfpack, the bottom line is that the Blue Devils are 11-3 ATS the L14 times they've allowed 80 or more points the last game, including 4-1 this season.  8* Duke

10* Florida (1:00 ET):  A pretty poor finish to the regular season has the Gators' NCAA Tourney hopes pretty much on life support and given the events of the last week (lots of upsets), it may very well take winning the SEC Tournament to get in.  I'm not sure if they'll be able to accomplish the feat w/ the likes of Kentucky and Texas A&M in their way, but the fact is they are a dangerous 8-seed here in Nashville. I'd probably rank only four teams ahead of them in the SEC power structure and one of those is certainly not Arkansas, their first round opponent, whom they've already beaten by four in Gainesville earlier in the year. While Florida didn't cover the spread there (-7.5), the number is considerably lower here and I have the Gators advancing w/ relative ease.

Arkansas was able to hang tough in that first meeting by making 10 of 21 three-point attempts. Meanwhile, Florida was just 5 of 19.  I suppose that's not too far off from overall season averages, but still I wouldn't expect a repeat of that discrepancy.  It's also important to note that the Razorbacks have just three wins outside of Fayatteville this season and are 0-3 in neutral site games.  Their regular season did not end well as they lost at home to South Carolina, 76-61 as 6.5-point favorites. Unlike Florida, the Hogs have no realistic shot at making the NCAA Tournament (barring an improbable SEC Tournament win), so their motivation may not be as high this afternoon.

I admit that Florida is only 2-8 ATS its last 10 games (4-6 straight up). But three of those SU losses were by six points or less.  Unlike Arkansas, the Gators regular season ended well w/ an 82-72 win over Missouri.  The potential loss of center John Egbunu (injured in practice Tuesday) does hurt - literally and figuratively - but overall Florida is the far better team here due to its defense, which holds opponents to 68.7 points per game. It was disappointing that they scored 87 pts in the first meeting w/ Arkansas and still didn't cover.  If they are anywhere near that point total again today, it will be an easy trip to the pay window. 10* Florida

10* Arizona State (11:30 ET):  I found this line to be rather curious.  Though it was in Tempe, ASU destroyed Oregon State 86-68 (as five-point favorites) earlier this season. Even factoring out home court advantage, it really makes little sense then that the Sun Devils wouldn't be favored here.  Yes, they did not end the regular season well. That's part of it. The other half of the equation is that Oregon State is considered to be a "bubble team," which as you probably know tends to overvalue this time of year. So too does the Beavers' 86-82 win at UCLA in the regular season finale.  But before that, OSU had lost three of five and one of their two wins came by a single point. I look for the Sun Devils to dash the Beavers' NCAA Tournament dreams.

Earlier, I said that Arizona State didn't finish the regular season particularly well.  They, in fact, ended February w/ four straight double digit losses.  But I then backed them at home vs. Stanford last Thursday as they picked up a really nice 74-64 win over Stanford (led by as many as 21).  Then, in the regular season finale they gave a good Cal team all it could handle and actually led at the half, not to mention led by eight halfway through the second half. It still was an easy cover as six-point dogs.  One thing that is key here for the Sun Devils, and we saw this in the win vs. Stanford, is rebounding.  They outrebounded Oregon State 39-24 in the regular season meeting and as a result shot nearly 60% from the field.  OSU is not a particularly good rebounding team.

The Beavers have Gary Payton II, but they won't have second leading scorer Tres Tinkle here. That's a big loss. Stephen Thompson Jr was able to deliver a career-high in points in the upset victory over UCLA last week, but can that be counted upon again? Probably not.  Thanks to a 55-point second half, that win over UCLA was OSU's highest scoring effort in Pac 12 play all season. Thus, we are all but guaranteed to see a regression tonight and don't think this team won't be feeling the pressure of what is perceived as a "must win" spot.  Take the points.  10* Arizona State

10* New York (9:05 ET):  There's been a rather dramatic swing in the line here as the Knicks actually opened as three-point favorites and now look to be GETTING as many as three! Considering the opponent (Phoenix!), that seems odd, even though New York clearly has its own set of issues right now.  The Knicks lost again last night, 110-94 in Denver, even though Carmelo Anthony came through w/ 30 points. Other than that, it simply wasn't a very good night for the team and overall they are just 3-12 SU over the last 15 games.  I did have them Saturday night though, in an upset of Detroit (at home), where it seemed as if the money was stacked up against them there as well. I just can't believe the Suns would be bet to the role of favoritism given their own sorry state of affairs. Take the points.

Part of what's driving this line towards the Suns is that they are actually off B2B upsets of Orlando and Memphis where they covered the spread by a shocking 50 point margin.  They were 12.5-point dogs in a 102-84 win at Orlando and 9.5-pt dogs (opened much higher) in a 109-100 win at Memphis.  They've now won three of five following a disastrous 13-game losing streak, but by no means do they deserve to be favored in this spot.  Consider that they won just three games total from Christmas to the end of February!  This is their first time being favored since an outright loss to Brooklyn (here at home) on February 25th and before that one would have to go all the way back to January 3rd to find the last time they were in the chalk role.  They lost outright there as well, to the Lakers.

The Knicks have just four wins over their last 21 games, but one of them did come against Phoenix, 102-84 as seven-point chalk. As that number illustrates, even on the road, they should still be the favorite here.  They were only a one-point dog in Denver last night, so this totally seems like an overreaction (by the public, not the linesmakers).  Before winning its last two games, the Suns have been routinely getting blown out and in fact only teams (Lakers, Sixers) have a worse scoring margin per 100 possessions in the entire league. 10* New York

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): This shapes up as almost a "must-win" for the Mavericks.  Granted, "must win" doesn't mean "will win," but nevertheless I do believe the conditions are favorable here to a Dallas win and cover. As we've been through before with Detroit (tonight's opponent), their home-road dichotomy is striking. They were quite kind to me the last two games, first by losing outright in New York Saturday night (102-89, -7), then by bouncing back w/ a win Sunday at home over Portland (123-103 as a slight dog). It should not come as a shock to you to find which game was on the road and which was at home as the team's YTD record now stands at 13-20 SU away and 19-11 SU home (ATS records similar in both regards). Therefore, I'll lay the small number w/ a Dallas team desperate to avoid a fourth straight loss.

In the interest of full disclosure, I was actually debating taking the Mavs Monday night. I'm glad that I didn't because they ended up falling apart in the second half and lost 109-90 to the Clippers. That came on the heels of an excruciating 116-114 defeat (overtime) the night before in Denver where they blew a four-point lead in the final 10 seconds of regulation. As I mentioned earlier, the team has lost three in a row and that has them a tenuous seventh in the West and really it's four teams competing for those last three playoff spots.  However, the good news here is that at no point during this season have the Mavs lost four in a row and they are 5-1 ATS when off three straight losses (2-0 this year). Coming off a double-digit defeat, they are 11-4 SU/10-4-1 ATS this season. 

Detroit typically does not shoot the ball well, but on Sunday they were at 52.4% from the field in the rout of Portland. Again though, that was at home. Their previous home game before that saw them shoot 57% in a minor upset of Toronto. But in between were two road games (both losses) where they were below 40% from the field. For the season, their FG% is at just 42.4 on the road and "true" shooting numbers are really bad, due to their awful free throw percentage.  In fact, only the Lakers are worse in terms of "true" shooting percentage.  10* Dallas

8* Under Heat/Bucks (8:05 ET):  Similar to yesterday's Under play (Raptors/Nets), here we have two teams that have been scoring more than per usual of late.  Miami has topped 100 pts in nine of its last 11 games, including four straight, which is surprising as they average only 98.0 points per game. Over the last five games, they have averaged 110 PPG on better than 50% shooting. That's largely owed to one ridiculously good game where they scored 129 points vs. Chicago, shooting an other-worldly 67.5 percent.  With Milwaukee, they are actually off B2B bad shooting nights (sub 40 percent), but overall scoring has been up their recent games by about 10 points per game.  I see another Under coming through here.

Lest we forget about the Heat's defensive credentials.  They are #1 in the East, allowing just 96.9 points per game. Only the Spurs allow fewer league-wide.  This has been the top Under team in the league for the vast majority of the season (currently 39-23 in all games) and that includes a 6-1 mark when priced as a road favorite of three points or less.  In road games where the total is between 200 and 204.5, the Under is 2 for 2 this season for them and going back three seasons, 10-3.  I think it's important to note that Miami is the ONLY team in the East that neither scores nor allows 100 points per game. Only two other teams in the league (Memphis, Utah) can claim that, so a total this high seems like an overreaction to recent form by the linesmakers. 

It's also important to note that Miami averages only 94.7 PPG on the road. The last time they came calling to Milwaukee, they scored 107 and the game easily went Over the total (of 194.5 pts!). I think that game also has obviously played a large role in tonight's total.  But both teams shot that ball pretty well in that one and I don't think we'll be seeing those shooting numbers duplicated here. Consider that the first meeting this season saw the Bucks win 91-79.  Remember that the Heat are still w/o Chris Bosh.  This might seem like a low total for the Bucks, but I anticipate their shooting woes of the last two games to continue and at the same time, their defense to improve.  8* Under Heat/Bucks

8* St. Louis (6:30 ET): This is a first round matchup in the Atlantic 10 Tournament. These teams split during the regular season, each winning on the other's home floor.  Those results seem rather odd considering St. Louis had just two other road wins (all season!) and George Mason had just three!  As far as recent form goes, SLU's isn't very good as they ended the regular season on a four-game losing streak and went just 2-9 SU L11, though one of those wins did come at the expense of George Mason.  As for the Patriots, they ended their regular season w/ an upset (as 6-pt dogs) of Richmond, at home. I suspect that is the reason they are getting "a little love" here, but as my regular clients already know, I often like to fade teams coming off an outright win such as that. Take the points.

This shapes up as a pretty even matchup to me. It's not as if the venue (Brooklyn) gives any kind of advantage to George Mason, so I'm not sure why they'd be laying points here, other than the fact that they are the higher seed (12 vs. 13). Back to the idea of fading the Patriots off their upset win; it turns out that they are 0-4 ATS this season off a conference win, not to mention 2-11 ATS their L13 in that situation.  This is admittedly a strong rebounding team, but their 55 boards vs. Richmond set a season-high and thus is unlikely to be duplicated here.  One thing this team does not do well is shoot the ball; their field goal percentage is at only 40.7% for the year, including 29.1% from three-point range.  Perhaps most telling of all is the fact GMU is only 2-4 SU and ATS as a favorite this year. That includes not only a home loss to St. Louis, but also another outright setback at lowly LaSalle, the only two times they were favored against an A-10 opponent.

As for St. Louis, they will need to turnaround their recent fortune in neutral court games (0-7 ATS L7!). That trend seems like an outlier, if nothing else, to me and should revert back to the mean.  Something to consider is that George Mason allowed 76.8 PPG in conference play, so the Billikens could possibly be in for a big offensive night, just like the last time they faced the Patriots. Consider they won at George Mason despite making only FOUR free throws the entire game. That number clearly should go up here and it's likely another "upset." 8* St. Louis

10* Orlando (10:35 ET):  This is a pretty short number to lay going against the sorry Lakers. Yes, I know they just pulled off the most astounding upset of this NBA season, beating the Warriors here at home Sunday. But that's clearly played a large role in the line "being what it is here" and what it is, is too short.  The Magic did play last night (and lost to the Warriors), but showed me something in not getting blown out when they easily could have (trailed by 15 in the second half). The game before saw them suffer quite the embarrassing upset (102-84 at home to Phoenix!), so this figures to be a game that Scott Skiles' team will be desperate to win. The Lakers will be in clear letdown mode after beating Golden State.

Since the start of February, the Lakers are actually a respectable 9-5 ATS.  But they've won just twice since the All-Star Break and w/o a big number attached to them, I feel they are impossible to back.  Even after beating the Warriors, they barely are ahead of the 76ers in terms of being outscored per 100 possessions (-10.4 to Philly's -10.5). My own personal power ratings indicate that Orlando should be about a 5.5-pt favorite in this spot.  The Lakers defense remains absolutely atrocious as they concede 107 points per game, which is the third most in the league and they also happen to be dead last in terms of efficiency.  I'm conflicted here on what the status of Kobe Bryant (questionable) means as despite being the team's leading scorer, he's actually more harm than help at this point.  Something to keep in mind is that the Warriors missed 26 of 30 three-point attempts against the Lakers. (They were 16 of 35 against Orlando).  I think LA rookie point guard D'Angelo Russell summed it up best when he said yesterday, "I really don't know how we came together," in regards to beating Golden State.

Orlando was just 5 for 21 last night from three-point range, a department that they should definitely improve upon here against one of the worst defensive teams in the league.  Note that as a favorite, the Magic have been pretty strong, going 16-6 SU and 13-9 ATS. Also, the Lakers are 0-3 SU/ATS following a double digit victory this year. 10* Orlando

8* Gonzaga (9:00 ET):  This is it for Gonzaga. A program that is generally considered a "lock" for the NCAA Tournament, they probably must win tonight as it seems as if their chances of gaining an at-large bid are slim to none.  Luckily, the WCC Tournament happens to be an event that they have owned. The Zags are now 38-4 SU in all WCC Tourney games (since '99) following last night's 88-84 win over BYU. Only three times in the last 16 years has Gonzaga not won this tournament. This year is a little different as they did not come in as the top seed, but here they have double revenge against the team that did (St. Mary's) and I like Mark Few's team to capture the rubber match and move on to the Big Dance as per usual. Lay the points.

Despite being the top seed and sweeping Gonzaga in the regular season, St. Mary's deserves to be the underdog here. It's certainly been an interesting season for the Gaels. They opened a perfect 12-0 against the spread, not to mention 14-1 straight up. Two of their four losses this season came to Pepperdine, but they just gained revenge for that w/ an 81-66 win and cover (were -7.5) last night.  However, they've clearly fallen off at the betting window down the stretch, covering just five of their last 15 games.  As an underdog, which they've been just three times, they are 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS. Quite simply, St. Mary's schedule this year hasn't been particularly challenging. They played two-thirds of their games at home and other than trips to Gonzaga and Cal, there was nothing even remotely challenging on paper.

This is the first time since 1995 that Gonzaga was swept in the regular season by St. Mary's. Overall, they are 40-10 SU the L50 meetings. Normally, the "shoe is on the other foot" when these teams meet in the WCC Tourney Final and it is the Gaels needing the win. Both regular season meetings were close w/ the 'Zags losing by a combined eight points.  They are the better team w/ the two best players - Sabonis & Wiltjer - on the court tonight.  Both teams shoot the ball really well. But it is St. Mary's that is more likely to regress from yday's performance (57.4%!) and the key is how well the 'Zags defend the three-point line (#1 in the country at 29%!).  8* Gonzaga

10* Under Nets/Raptors (7:35 ET):  This one of those matchups where both teams' recent scoring levels have been way above average and as a result we have an O/U line that is significantly higher than the previous meeting.  Toronto has gone Over its last four games, mainly due to some poor defense as three times during that stretch they have conceded at least 113 points. The latest was a surprising 113-107 loss to the Rockets here at home. As for Brooklyn, they just turned in one of the most unfathomably bad defensive performances in recent memory, allowing Minnesota (yes, Minnesota!) to shoot an astounding 68.4 percent from the floor (highest FG% in a NBA game since '98!) in a 132-118 loss. I'll call for a decrease in scoring across the board here and for this game to stay Under the total.

The Nets have been out on the road for quite awhile. This will be their eighth straight away game and somewhat surprisingly they are 3-4 SU so far on the trip.  But there's no disputing what a disaster Saturday was in Minnesota, though it did come on the heels of an outright upset of Denver (as 5.5-pt dogs) that I was on the right side of the previous night. Those two games happen to both rank in the top three for highest scoring Nets' games this season. However, both had special circumstances. I already went through Minnesota's ridiculous shooting night on Saturday and on Friday the game in Denver went to overtime. I think that it's important to remember that, for the year, Brooklyn averages only 97.7 points per game.  They've been above that average three straight games now.  It's time for a little "regression to the mean."

Of course, we'll need not only the Nets offense to get worse, but also for their defense to improve.  Aiding the former is the fact Toronto is allowing just 95.9 PPG in division contests. So, again, we should be good there. As for the Raptors offense being held in check, well, Brooklyn did rest its top two interior defenders against Minnesota, which played a role in that debacle.  Both Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young are set to return here. Brooklyn is a perfect 3-0 Under as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points this season. The last time these teams met (January), both shot better than 50 percent. That won't happen again here. Also, the O/U line is about 15 points higher than it was the last time these teams met. 10* Under Nets/Raptors

8* Wagner (7:00 ET): The Northeast Conference Tournament actually got underway all the way back on Wednesday and here we are in the Finals w/ the two top teams meeting for the right to go to the Big Dance. Top-seeded Wagner has the home court advantage, though that didn't mean much in the regular season w/ them and Fairleigh Dickinson exchanging victories on the others floor.  More recently, it was Wagner winning by 20 in Teaneck. Earlier in February, FDU managed to win by three here, becoming one of just three road teams to beat Wagner at home. I do not see history repeating itself tonight as the top-seeded Seahawks are clear favorites here and for good reason as they held the rest of the NEC to just 62.5 points per game. Lay the number.

Wagner comes into this Tournament Final having won seven straight. In five of those wins, they've held their opponent under 60 points. The two times that they did not, they "cranked up" the offense, scoring 94 and 81 points respectively. The former performance was against FDU. The latter came in Saturday's semifinal against Long Island where they were 7.5-pt favorites and covered by winning 81-65. Interestingly, the Seahawks actually trailed at the half and were tied w/ just 16:30 to go in the game. Therefore, you might find it curious that Wagner is actually laying more points to the #2 seed than they were to the #6 seed.  But consider that Fairleigh Dickinson has actually been outscored over the course of the season!

I expect Wagner's defense to be a lot better here than it was it Saturday's semi, not to mention the two regular season meetings vs. FDU. I say that knowing full well that the underdog Knights come in as the highest scoring team in the NEC. They managed to shoot 46.8% from the floor and score 74 pts the last time these two teams met. And they still lost by 20 - at home! In the first meeting, FDU scored even more points (82, which matched a season high in pts allowed by Wagner) and that was on this floor. But note that game went into overtime and Wagner actually led by six with under two minutes to go. The Seahawks then uncharacteristically allowed three consecutive three pointers, including the GW w/ just 1.4 seconds remaining.  Both of FDU's wins in this tournament have been close games that could have gone either way. I see them getting blown out here. 8* Wagner

8* Under E Tenn St/Chattanooga (9:00 ET):  This is the Final of the SoCon Tournament and the bracket has held "true to form" with the top two seeds meeting. Clearly, Chattanooga came in as the team to beat as the Mocs lost only five games in the regular season and went on the road to beat the likes of Dayton, Georgia and Illinois. That's really impressive, but as of late they have been on an ATS slide, failing to cover five in a row, including yday's narrow 73-69 win over Western Carolina where they were eight-point favorites.  East Tennessee State is a worthy adversary here as the Buccaneers have won seven straight and covered in the last six since losing to the Mocs back on February 13th. However, it's not the side that has me interested here, but rather the total as I expect a low-scoring affair in the third game in as many days for both teams. Take the Under.

  East Tenn State shot 54.2% from the field in last night's 84-76 win over Furman, including 8 for 15 from three-point range. Not to mention, they also made 24 of 27 free throw attempts.  I just can't see them matching those kind of numbers here.  While the Bucs definitely can score, this is the first time they've topped 80 points in consecutive games in two months.  Their last meeting with Chattanooga marked one of their lowest scoring efforts of the season (68 points) and they only had scored 43 with just under 11 minutes to go.  The Mocs are pretty strong defensively, holding teams to just 66.6 PPG. In 14 of their last 17 games, they've held the opponent below 70 points.

What about keeping UTC in check? Well, two nights ago, they scored only 59 points in a narrow win over Samford. They were lucky to hold the Bulldogs to just 18 points in the second half as it was a five-point deficit at the half.  For both teams here, this number is higher than the respective totals for yday's semifinal games. Because both went Over, we now have a little value to work with.  Four of the last five matchups have stayed Under the total, including the last one where the Mocs took a TON of free throws (31) and still lost. The first matchup went Over only because of a combined 23 made three-pointers, well above the combined season average. 8* Under East Tenn St/Chattanooga

    

10* New Orleans (8:05 ET):  This line has been doing some "funny things" ever since it opened. First, there was a move on New Orleans (from -1 to -1.5), but ever since money has come in on Sacramento who might end up closing as the favorite here. That's just fine by me as the Kings are one of those teams that I feel has been overvalued for much of this campaign.  Note that they have a losing (ATS) record in the chalk role (10-13-1) and on the road things get pretty ugly. Over the L3 seasons, they are just 1-7 ATS as road faves of three points or less (0-1 this year) and with a defense this bad (110.6 PPG allowed on the road), it's easy to understand why. The Pelicans do have a winning record at home, by the way.

Both of these teams are off losses on Saturday. Sacramento, predictably, fell in San Antonio 104-94, but actually did manage to cover (at +11.5) due to somewhat of a "back door scenario" where they outscored the Spurs 27-18 in the fourth quarter.  The final margin still has to be a little disappointing given that San Antonio rested three starters. Again though, the Kings are simply not a very good road team (11-20 SU) and defensively no team in the league allows more points per game. Tonight marks the end of a four-game, six day road trip. Fatigue could certainly be a factor and the fact is this team has covered only four of its last 13 games. They are 4-11 ATS when coming off a double digit loss this season.

New Orleans lost as a favorite, here at home, to Utah on Saturday night.  That game saw the Pelicans fall behind early, only to rally back in the third quarter and then fall apart again. More was lost than just the game, however, as the prognosis for PG Eric Gordon isn't looking good and this is already a banged up team. Still though, they have Anthony Davis, who is likely to improve upon his subpar shooting (11 of 31) from the last game. Going from Utah to Sacramento in terms of defense is "worlds apart" as the former is #2 in points allowed in the Western Conference while (as I already mentioned) the latter is #30 in the league.  The Pelicans have twice beaten the Kings comfortably this year, once w/o Davis.  10* New Orleans

8* Minnesota (7:05 ET):  Charlotte is a team that I've had ranked fairly high in my own personal power ratings for much of the year. Since January 22nd, they have the East's third best SU record (14-5) and that includes wins in nine of their last 11 games (won 4 straight).  But in this price range, I have to "back off" some. Yes, they did just record recent blowouts over both Phoenix and Philadelphia, but I'm still not convinced that this team is capable of those kind of performances on a consistent basis. They're much better suited as an underdog, in my estimation, as this year has seen them go just 1-3 against the spread as a home fave of -6.5 to -9 (4-8 ATS L3 years). While the Hornets have been scoring a lot recently, the T'wolves actually have been the more efficient of the two offenses this season and I'm going to take them plus the points here.

Minnesota is off its own big win, 132-118 over Brooklyn, as 9.5-point favorites Saturday night. They shot the ball at an astounding 68.4% clip, which is  not just the highest mark in franchise history, but also the highest we've seen in any NBA game since 1998! Now, clearly, we're going to have to deal with a decline in that department here.  But still, they have topped 100 pts in 11 of the past 13 games, a stretch that has seen them go a more than respectable 6-7 straight up. For whatever reason, this team tends to be much better on the road, at least from a pointspread perspective as they are 17-14 ATS. One reason for that is they tend to get a lot of points as the road team. Such is the case here.

Charlotte has beaten Minnesota three straight times, including a 104-95 win back in November. But the T'wolves were w/o both Andrew Wiggins and Ricky Rubio in that one. Wiggins, along with Karl-Anthony Towns and Zach LaVine have formed a nice little nucleus for a team still in rebuild mode.  They key here for Minnesota is going to be defense and thankfully Charlotte is only 10-11 straight up this year after topping 105 pts in its previous game.  I just get the sense that the Hornets are a little overvalued in this spot as we've already seen peak play from them over the past week or so. 8* Minnesota

10* North Dakota State (7:00 ET):  I'm going back to North Dakota State, who was a nice winner for me Sunday, beating IUPUI handily (60-45 as 5-pt chalk). As I mentioned in my analysis yday, the Bison are the top defensive team in the Summit League, a fact that will not be lost on tonight's opponent. IPFW, the top seed in this tournament, was held to season-lows of 46 points and 28.1% shooting the last time they faced NDSU and I'm proud to say that I was on the right side of that one as well. Though the Mastodons do have the edge of one extra day to prepare (their quarterfinal game was Saturday), I keep coming back to the fact that their ATS record (nation's best) of 21-6 is due to regress.  Take the points & I wouldn't be surprised to see an outright upset obviously.

What was a close game at the half yday was broken open by NDSU, who held IUPUI to just three made field goals over the final 16 minutes!  Again, just to rehash from yday's analysis, the Bison are holding opponents below 65 PPG for the year (top 25 nationally!).  Sunday's win improved them to 17-1 SU this season when holding the opposition under 70 points. Also, I'd like to reiterate that this team has won the Summit League Tournament each of the last two years. They do an excellent job of not fouling much (under 16 per game) and protecting the basketball (only 10 turnovers per game).  In the last meeting w/ IFPW, they held the Mastodons to just 9 of 32 shooting from two-point range!

IPFW has been quite lucky this year as they are 13-2 SU in games decided by six points or less.  Both losses came to rival IUPUI and I was on the last one, which was the regular season finale.  Yes, they "got me back" w/ an 86-70 win over South Dakota in the quarterfinals. But they were able to shoot better than 50% from the field there, including 12 made three-pointers.  I do not see a repeat of that taking place here. Even in their win over North Dakota State during the regular season (at home), they shot just 42.4% overall and won by only five.  They are actually favored by more here (in a neutral setting) than they were at home. That's a mistake by the linesmakers. 10* North Dakota State

10* North Dakota State (7:00 ET):  This is a quarterfinal matchup in the Summit League, which saw the top two seeds advance to the semis yesterday. This is the 4-5 matchup (winner moves on to play top seed IPFW) and perhaps you may find it curious that the lower seeded team is favored here. But IUPUI is by no means a strong team, so I can't say that I'm surprised at the number, even though I took the Jaguars last Saturday when they came away w/ an 80-77 upset of rival IPFW. But that was a home game and the fact is this team is still only 13-18 SU for the season, including just four wins away from home. I really like North Dakota State in this spot. Lay the short number.

Now, it was not a particularly strong end to the regular season for NDSU.  They did beat IUPUI, 63-59 here at home, but failed to cover as 6.5-point favorites. Then, they dropped B2B road games, first to Denver, then to South Dakota State. The Bison scored only 59 points in both games, which is well below their season average, and I see them bouncing back offensively here against a IUPUI team that has allowed five of its last six opponents to score at least 76 points. Also, remember that the Bison are two-time defending Summit League Tournament champions, so they know how to get the job done here in Sioux Falls.

While they did not cover either regular season matchup vs. IUPUI this year, note that they easily could have covered both.  They were in position for the win and cover back on January 31st in Indianapolis when the Jaguars' Jordan Pickett nailed a three-pointer w/ just 2.3 seconds remaining giving his team the 73-72 decision (as one-point dogs). Then, two weeks ago in Fargo, the Bison were up by as many as 15 in the second half before things got close at the end. I still believe in NDSU's defense, which was tops in the Summit League, holding teams to just 65 points per game (29th nationally). This team doesn't foul often (15.9 times per game) and takes good care of the basketball (just 10.6 turnovers per game) and the fact that IUPUI only averages 63.8 PPG away from home is great because the Bison are 16-1 SU this season when allowing fewer than 70 points! 10* North Dakota State

10* Detroit (6:05 ET):  The Pistons are off a pretty embarrassing loss last night. I know because I happened to be on the other side (Knicks), who beat them outright 102-89 as seven-point dogs. That result, combined w/ Chicago's win over Houston (which I was also on the right side of!) now has Detroit outside the top eight in the Eastern Conference (one-half game back of the Bulls). They can make up that discrepancy tonight though w/ a win over the Blazers, who have been hot recently, but also will be playing their sixth consecutive road game out East. They (Portland) got me last Sunday w/ an upset over Indiana, but they've had to play three times since then and it's fair to question what they have "left in the tank" for the final game of the trip.

I've said it before, but Detroit is not a good shooting team and that issue has hurt them in each of the last two games where they've been below 40% from the field. Of course, it hasn't helped that their opponents both shot above 50% as well.  I went against the Pistons both times (cashed the Spurs Wednesday, 97-81), so this is definitely "reversing course" for me. What's the difference? Well, it's pretty obvious. Now they're back at home where their record is a healthy 18-11 SU and 18-10-1 ATS. That's a far cry from 13-20 SU/ATS on the road and a big reason for that discrepancy is on the offensive end. They average 104.9 PPG here at home while shooting a more respectable 45% from the floor. It also bears mentioning that coming off an outright loss as a favorite, the Pistons are 10-2 ATS this season.

Portland had won 14 of 16 before dropping its last two, which is the first losing streak the team has been on in nearly two months. I realize a lot has changed since the early part of the season, but I can't help but go back to the fact the Blazers were only two-point favorites (at home) over Detroit in November and lost that game straight up. Given that result and the change in venue, it stands to reason that the Pistons should be favored by a greater margin this evening. My own personal power ratings suggest that they should be laying 2.5 points in this one, so there's some value right there and again this is Portland's sixth straight road game in a nine day span. 10* Detroit

8* Under Holy Cross/Army (12:00 ET): This is the first of two Patriot League semifinals w/ the winner moving on to play the winner of American vs. Lehigh in the Championship Game on Wednesday (note: this tournament is really spread out!). The bracket has already been "busted" here w/ Holy Cross upsetting top seed Bucknell, whom they held to just 33.3 percent shooting on Thursday. Yet that game still went Over (due to double overtime!) and so too did Army's 79-72 win over Colgate. In fact, the last four times a total has been posted for an Army game, the Over has cashed. But w/ the stakes considerably higher now and this being Holy Cross' fourth game in eight days, I look for a different story to unfold (i.e. an Under) today.

Coming into this tournament, I identified Army as one of the potential "sleepers" as their conference record is a bit misleading. They finished only 9-9 (straight up) vs. the rest of the Patriot League, but were 3-6 SU w/o leading scorer Tanner Plomb, who is back now and averages a healthy 20.2 points per game. The Black Knights have won six of their last seven, the only loss coming to Lehigh, and they could very well get an opportunity for revenge in the Final.  As for this game, obviously, it is huge for the #4 seed to find itself having home court advantage in the semifinal.  Especially in this case as Holy Cross, a 41.3% shooting team overall, averages just 63.5 PPG on the road.

Neither regular season matchup between these two saw more than 140 total points scored.  The more recent meeting took place here in West Point w/ Army prevailing 72-68. It was also a four-point game at Holy Cross, that one seeing the Crusaders prevail 69-65. The key in both games is that neither side shot the ball well from three-point range.  HC went a combined 9 for 37 while Army was 11 for 39.  Those numbers are pretty well in line w/ overall season performance (HC a little lower). Again, you have to consider that it took two overtimes for Holy Cross' last game to go Over the total as it was just a 53-53 game at the end of regulation. Bucknell hoisted 39 three-pointers alone there, something HC won't be seeing from Army here. I look for a low-scoring game. 8* Under Holy Cross/Army

8* Chicago (8:35 ET):  My goodness, what has happened to Bulls under Fred Hoiberg?  The easy answer would be "injuries" as Joakim Noah (out for the season), Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler have all missed significant time.  The good news here is that it looks like Butler is probable to return (Rose is a definite) and that makes the team look like a really solid value in this price range against the disappointing Rockets. As upset as Chicago fans may be over the won-loss record, Houston fans have to be feeling a lot worse as their team is a game below .500 and in danger of not even making the playoffs in the top-heavy West. Their defense is downright disgraceful, particularly on the road, where they give up 109.1 points per game. 

After covering their first four games after the All-Star Break, Chicago has failed to cover its last four, failing to cover in each loss as well.  They lost 102-89 in Orlando Wednesday, shooting just 38.4% in the process.  Assuming Butler does return tonight, he would provide a massive lift offensively as he is the team leader w/ 22.4 points per game. He's also perhaps the team's best defender as well w/o Noah being out.  Defense has been the issue with Butler out as the Bulls last 15 opponents have all gone over 100 points.  I can say for certain that offense won't be an issue here against the defensively inept Rockets.

Houston had its troubles offensively on Wednesday, missing 32 of 35 three-point attempts! Yet, somehow, they still won at home over New Orleans, 100-95. That marked the first time in eight games that Houston allowed less than 100 points.  Like I said earlier and then reiterated, the Rockets are really bad defensively on the road, giving up 109.1 PPG.  In games where they allow 100 or more points, the Rockets are just 17-28 SU. Chicago comes in averaging 101.5 PPG on the season.  Overall, Houston has been one of the worst performing teams against the pointspread, going 26-35 ATS in all games.   8* Chicago

8* Virginia (8:30 ET):  This line caught me a little bit "off-guard" at first.  But then, I remembered two things.  The first is how Virginia completely destroyed Louisville in the first meeting, 63-47, holding the Cardinals to just 14 first half points! The second is that "this is it" for Louisville, the final game of the season, due to the self-imposed postseason bad. Motivation could really be lacking in this spot, especially after a narrow win in the final home game for the departing seniors earlier in the week.  The Cardinals simply aren't very good on the road to begin with (just 2-8 ATS), so visiting the team that handed them their worst loss of the season doesn't sound very promising.  Lay the points. 

Virginia has plenty of motivation here. The Cavs are gunning for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and a win here, plus losses by both Miami and North Carolina would give them a share of the ACC regular season crown. Miami visits Va Tech while UNC has to play at Duke, so by tip-off, there's a good chance the team will know its own fate.  UNC losing at Duke is a distinct possibility, leaving UVA the chance to "sneak up" at take second place in the conference at worst.  This is a team that's perfect (14-0) straight up at home this year and won 10 of its last 12.  The only two losses came by a total of four points. 

I mentioned earlier that Louisville hasn't been very good on the road this year. In addition to being just 2-8 ATS, they are 5-6 straight up.  Turns out that the easy non-conference sked (which included ZERO "true" road games) probably had the Cardinals overrated.  Obviously, the self-imposed ban has had a negative effect on the team, particularly the two who transferred here to compete for a National Title.  There have actually been some close games this year where Louisville didn't really play well and the result could have been worse. It's tough for me to say this, but I'm basically calling for a L'ville "no show" in this one.  8* Virginia

10* Iowa (8:00 ET):  Normally, I don't play road teams in College Hoops.  Just look at most team's records at home and compare them to the record on the road and you'll see why. But here, I make an exception. This is due to Iowa suffering a shocking four consecutive outright defeats, the most recent occurring at home against Indiana Tuesday night. Here, they travel to Ann Arbor to face a Michigan team that's also off a loss, one where they scored only 57 points against Wisconsin.  Iowa has already beaten the Wolverines once this season, 82-71 in Iowa City and while I may not necessarily disagree with this line, I do think desperation starts to set in with the Hawkeyes and they come through in a major way tonight.

Iowa was, at one point, 19-4 straight up and rated among the top ten teams in the country. No more as, like I said, the Hawkeyes have lost four in a row (all as favorites) and actually failed to cover six in a row. Their one win in the last six games was a narrow one against a poor Minnesota team.  It should be pointed out, however, that every loss has been close. In fact, three of the last four have come by four points or less. It's not like Michigan is playing well either as the Wolverines have dropped five of their last eight and three of four. The losses have been on the road, but earlier in the year they did lose here at home to both Indiana and Michigan State.

Probably, Iowa was not as good as it looked at the start of the season, which included a sweep of Michigan State. But they are not as bad as they looked of late either.  Similarly, Michigan started 17-5 SU overall including 7-2 in conference play before falling off. Most of Michigan's Big 10 wins have come against the sub-.500 teams as season sweeps of Minnesota and Penn State account for four wins, plus there was Illinois, Northwestern, Nebraska and hideous Rutgers.  Even at home, I do not see them beating a team the caliber of Iowa.  10* Iowa

10* Over Florida/Missouri (7:30 ET):  Recent Florida games have not lacked for scoring as each of the last three have gone Over the total, including Tuesday's crushing 88-79 loss to Kentucky. I use the term "crushing" because the Gators' NCAA Tournament hopes are now on life support due to four straight losses. They've allowed at least 87 pts in the last three. Considering their own 0-6 ATS record as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, not to mention Missouri's 7-0 ATS run as a home dog in same price range, on paper, this clearly does not appear to be a great spot to take the Gators. But the Over is a strong play here as the Tigers have topped 70 points in seven of their last eight games. 

Missouri has also lost four straight games. They have allowed at least 80 pts in all four defeats. So we have two teams that are struggling defensively in this one and really Mizzou's struggles go back further than that as they've allowed 80+ in six of their last eight games as well.  Each of their last two opponents have shot better than 50% against them. But, overall, most teams are not shooting particularly lights out at their expense, so that means we're typically getting games with a high number of possessions.   Offensively, the Tigers have been nothing but remarkably consistent as in their last nine games they have scored somewhere between 69 and 75 points every time.

Prior to its last three games, Florida had three straight terrible shooting efforts. The last three games have seen their opponents all shoot at least 52% from the floor. Missouri may not be capable of shooting that well, but the Gators' own numbers should start to improve.  Though the last three meetings between these schools all stayed Under the total, this one promises to be played at a faster tempo and with both teams struggling to find their way defensively, it should be an easy Over.  10* Over Florida/Missouri

8* New York (7:05 ET):  It was another loss for the Knicks last night, although this one closer than expected as they fell 105-104 in Boston as 10-pt underdogs.  That was a pretty painful result considering they led by as many as eight in the fourth quarter, which was just a 17-point period for them. They've now dropped 12 out of their last 14 games to fall well out of contention in the Eastern Conference as they trail eighth place Detroit by seven full games (eight in the loss column) and that's who they'll play tonight, here at home.  Taking a more than generous number, I'll endorse New York as a home dog in this spot as my own personal power ratings indicate that this line should be much closer to a pick 'em.

The Pistons are also off a loss here, theirs coming Wednesday night in San Antonio by a score of 97-81. I was on the Spurs there, noting that Detroit was "in over its head" there even as a double digit dog. This is not a particularly great road team as is evident by their 13-19 SU record outside of the Motor City. They are being outscored by three points per game in such affairs and another issue I have with this team is their poor overall shooting as only the Lakers are worse in terms of "true shooting," which weighs free throws and three-pointers. For the season, they shoot just 42.5% on the road, so it should not be that big of a surprise that they are 0-3 ATS as a road favorite of -3.5 to -6 points.

If you want to talk line value, then consider that when these teams met just last month, Detroit was only a 4.5-point favorite - at home. They were asked to lay only 1.5 in their only other visit to the Big Apple this season - and lost! That loss dropped the Pistons to just 10-23 ATS their L33 games here at MSG.  The Knicks, who are now below .500 at home this year, do have a winning ATS record when taking points this season and it looks as if we've reached the point where clearly they are being undervalued (started the year surprisingly strong).  Playing the second of back to back games, they are 7-6 ATS this season. 8* New York

10* Indiana (7:05 ET): The Pacers didn't work out for me last night as they were outscored 28-19 in the fourth quarter by the red-hot Hornets and it was the first time in franchise history that they were swept in a season series by Charlotte.  Because they lost, it is a much better value tonight in D.C. and the Wizards team they are taking on here also happened to lose Friday, by 25 in Cleveland. I would not have Washington favored in this spot, even at home, as my own personal power ratings have this one basically a pick em due to the fact the Wiz are just a .500 proposition (straight up!) at home this season. Indiana is 24-13 ATS vs. the rest of the Eastern Conference and taking points they are a strong value.

The road team has won each of the two previous meetings these two have had. The first was here in Washington w/ the Pacers winning 123-106 (+3).  The Wizards then returned the favor in January, 118-104, but if you look at the seven-point line for that contest, it indicates that that the Wizards probably shouldn't be favored here, even as the home team. Again, they're only 16-16 SU at the Verizon Center due to giving up 103.9 points per game. The Pacers are 6-1 ATS their last seven visits here. 

With a visit to San Antonio on deck, followed by a two-game trip to Dallas and Atlanta, it is imperative that Indiana gets the win here.  They are currently only seventh in the East, just 1.5 games up on the 10th place Wizards, who have been the hotter team as of late.  But as good as the Wiz's recent record has been, consider that two of the wins were at Philadelphia's expense, another was against Minnesota and the other was vs. Cleveland when they didn't have LeBron. So take that four-game win streak w/ a grain of salt.  They are still just 2-6 ATS their last eight games vs. teams with a winning record.  10* Indiana

10* South Dakota (7:00 ET): I've been through this drill with IPFW (that's Indiana Purdue-Ft. Wayne) before, but in case this is your first time playing against them, I'll go through it again. The Mastodons have the best ATS record in the country (20-6 ATS), but lately (as you might expect) they've begun to regress. I first stepped out against them a few weeks ago when they visited North Dakota State and got blown out 62-46. They managed to get back on track after that, however (four straight wins), but then in the regular season finale I went against them again and they lost outright at rival IUPUI, 80-77.  This is a quarterfinal matchup in the Summit League Tournament and I'll take the 8-seed (plus the points) over the 1-seed. 

Note that I did play against South Dakota just last Saturday (went 2 for 2 in the Summit!) as they lost to Western Illinois.  Though South Dakota finished second to last in the Summit (9th place Western Illinois not in the tournament), there's an argument to be made that the Coyotes are better than that. There were four close losses by six points or less, two of them to two of the top three in the league. With the tournament taking place in South Dakota, that's a slight edge for the Coyotes here as well.

When a team is 20-6 against the spread like IPFW is, eventually the linesmakers are going to catch up. That's what I expect to happen here.  Note that they were NOT favored in the majority of their games this season. Clearly, the Mastodons are a team that overachieved and quite frankly they should feel lucky to be the top seed here as they won a tiebreaker over a much better South Dakota State team due to a head to head sweep of third place Omaha.  With a chance to sew up first place all to themselves, this team lost outright to a pretty bad IUPUI team last week and that's a telling sign for what lies ahead, in my opinion.  They have failed to cover two of the last three times they have been favored by at least six points, losing one of those games outright.  10* South Dakota

8* Brooklyn (9:05 ET):  It just so happens that the Lakers were the last opponent for both the Nets and Nuggets. Denver had the benefit of playing them second (when LA was w/o rest), thus they were able to prevail 117-107 despite not having leading scorer Danilo Gallinari in the lineup.  The previous night saw Brooklyn not be as fortunate as they lost 107-101 (actually closed as the favorite!) to the guys in purple and gold.  Interesting though is there the Nets were the ones that were unrested and that probably had an effect. They'd been on a four-game ATS win streak prior to the Lakers loss and while they were DD dogs in three of those games, the fact is I like them plus the points here as like Brooklyn, Denver isn't trustworthy as a favorite.

As a favorite, the Nuggets are only 3-6 ATS this year and that includes five outright losses.  Now, they did obviously just cover at the Lakers expense Tuesday night, but we've already been through how that was a beneficial spot against an unrested foe. More pertinent to this matchup is the fact that not only did they not cover as favorites in Brooklyn last month, but actually lost outright. Now, they were only -2.5 and the final score was 105-104. But, it still speaks to the fact that laying points with one of the worst teams in the league probably isn't a good idea, especially since this time they are w/o Gallinari. Denver is actually 0-3 ATS as a home favorite of -3.5 to -6 this year and that doesn't even include an outright loss (as 2.5-pt faves) to Sacramento here a little over a week ago. Curiously, despite the majority of tickets so far being written on the Nuggets, this number has come DOWN. You know what that means (smart money alert!).

The Nets have actually beaten the Nuggets four straight times.  While it was a close game last month, the last two meetings here in Denver were both blowouts as Brooklyn has prevailed by an average of 25.5 points per game.  That's pretty staggering. Sure, with this being the Nets' fifth straight road game, the natural inclination is to fade them, but that's hard to do here with Denver allowing an average of 111 PPG its last five home games. DJ Augustin is due to cool off for them. The Nets are a surprising 17-10 ATS vs. the Western Conference this season. 8* Brooklyn

8* Boston (7:35 ET):  The Knicks have been a complete dumpster fire under Kurt Rambis as the team is now 2-11 straight up its last 13 games and they were just blown out (105-84) at home by Portland on Tuesday. We have Phil Jackson comparing Steph Curry to Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf and Carmelo Anthony directing chants of "refund" to owner James Dolan. So clearly whatever goodwill the team had built up during its surprisingly decent start to the season is now long gone and tonight I expect the struggles to continue. In many ways, the Knicks are a tailor-made opponent for the Celtics as games where the O/U line is 210+ points, the guys in green are a remarkable 13-3-1 ATS/15-2 SU and it's not just this year that they've excelled when the linesmakers think the game might be high-scoring. They're 24-6 ATS in that situation in three years under HC Brad Stevens. Lay the points here.

While New York may be floundering, Boston is surging thanks to four consecutive wins. Out of nowhere, this has become one of the better offensive teams in the entire league. They've topped 100 pts in 23 of the last 25 games, including Wednesday's 116-93 romp over the same Blazers team that had just blown out New York the previous night. Interestingly, one of the two games where the C's failed to score triple digits was against these Knicks. But they more than made up for it by allowing only 89 pts in what turned out to be an eight-point victory on the road. Considering they were laying 4.5 points in that game, the line should be higher here. Rarely are the Celtics asked to lay double digits (only twice against the Sixers), but keep in mind that only six teams in the league (Spurs, Warriors, Thunder, Clippers, Cavs and Raptors) are outscoring opponents by a wider margin per 100 possessions.

The only other time in the last 25 games that Boston was held below 100 pts was at Utah, who is one of the better defensive teams in the league. They just had a rematch with the Jazz Monday and hit the triple-digit benchmark right on the nose. Save for a win over Minnesota, the Knicks have been routinely torched defensively on the road and are giving up more than 105 PPG their L5 games overall. Meanwhile, Boston's defense has been great the L3 games and they've won 12 in a row here at home. 8* Boston

10* Under Austin Peay/Belmont (7:30 ET):  This is the first of two semifinal matchups in the OVC (Ohio Valley) Tournament tonight with the winner moving on to face the winner of Morehead State-Tenn Martin in tomorrow's final. Austin Peay is the surprise as the eighth seeded Governors have pulled B2B upsets to get here, beating Tennessee Tech and Tennessee State. Meanwhile, top-seeded Belmont had the luxury of the double-bye and the tournament taking place in Nashville favors them as well. So, clearly Austin Peay (playing its third game in as many nights) looks to be "up against it" here and you have to wonder if fatigue will start to set in. One thing I do know is that the Governors have been shooting the ball very well as of late and sooner rather than later, their offensive numbers are going to decline. I feel that happens here & I'm on the Under.

The Over is 9-1 in Austin Peay's last 10 games, but this is not just the highest O/U line for them during that stretch, but also the second highest for any game all season. The highest was a game vs. Eastern Kentucky back on January 2nd, a 79-70 loss, which stayed Under. Interestingly enough, that kicked off a streak of five straight Unders from the Governors. But lately things have changed. Tuesday saw the team score 92 pts in a romp over Tenn Tech, their most in any OVC Tourney game since 2000. But last night, as seven-point underdogs, beating Tennessee State was even more improbable as the Governors had to rally back from a double digit halftime deficit (scored only 27 pts in the 1H!). Five made free throws in the final 24 seconds helped to just barely push that one Over the total.

Belmont hasn't played in almost a week. With nothing at stake, the Bruins dropped their regular season finale 87-72 (to Tennessee State). This is the nation's 15th highest scoring team, but we know that they can hold Austin Peay in check as the lone regular season meeting was a 76-58 final that went Belmont's way. Interestingly, despite that game staying well Under the posted total, the O/U line for the rematch opened higher. That has everything to do with an Austin Peay team playing "over its head" right now. Belmont tightens the screws here and keeps this one Under the total. 10* Under Austin Peay/Belmont

10* Toledo (7:00 ET): This is not only a revenge spot for UT, but also Senior Night and their last chance to "stop the bleeding" before next week's MAC Tournament. Back to back outright losses, to Central & Western Michigan, have the Rockets reeling right now and another loss here could result in them finishing as low as fifth in the West Division. Or they could possibly finish as high as third. It's all about taking care of an Eastern Michigan squad that beat them earlier this year, 91-85, a game where the Eagles shot a preposterous 68% from the field. Yes, you read that correctly. Needless to say, I don't see "history repeating itself" here as the Eagles are significantly worse on the road due to their awful defense.  Lay the points in this one. 

Lost in Toledo losing the first meeting is that they themselves shot the ball; 50.8% overall including 7 of 17 from three-point range. They finished w/ 85 points. But it wasn't nearly enough as Eastern Michigan made 34 of the 50 field goal attempts they took including an incredible 11 of 16 three-pointers. The thing is, Toledo isn't generally that bad of a defensive team. Here at home, they are allowing just 68 PPG (71.3 PPG allowed overall).  Without question, it was the Rockets' worst effort of the season on that end of the floor. Conversely, it was not just EMU's best offensive performance of the season, but also the best any Eagles team has shot in program history. There's no real way to explain what happened on February 20th except to say "it was one of those games."

Take the Eagles outside of Ypsilanti and they are simply not a very good basketball team. They are 3-11 ATS (3-10 SU) in road games.  We've already established that the offense is guaranteed to decline from the first meeting, but what about EMU's defense? Well, in their last road game they gave up 115 points and lost by 36 at Ball State. Defense has been an issue all season for this team as they allow 84.4 PPG away from home. Thanks to a three-pointer w/ just 24 seconds remaining, the Eagles were able to pull out a close win (at home) over Northern Illinois on Tuesday. But they are just 2-5 SU and ATS coming off a conference win this year. While Eastern Michigan was winning close Tuesday, Toledo blew a six point lead w/ nine minutes to go on the road at Western Michigan and lost by six. A season-high 23 turnovers were the clear culprit there and that should not be repeated. The bottom line though is the Rockets are much better than their record shows. Yes, they've lost four of five, but all of the games were close and in there they did beat division leader Ball State. I think it's pertinent to point out that they were favored in Ypsilanti last month, so this line looks like a great value. Consider that UT has outscored its opponents by 13.9 PPG here at home this season. 10* Toledo

8* Indiana (7:05 ET):  Throughout this season, I've been making the case that Charlotte is far better than they're being given credit for. Lately, their play has backed up that assertion. Since Feb 5th, they've won 8 of 10 and that includes a narrow 96-95 victory (as 4-pt dogs) over tonight's opponent, Indiana. But lately, the Hornets have also been fortunate. Not just because Kemba Walker hit a GW shot w/ 2.4 seconds remaining at Indiana last Saturday, but also in that their last two opponents were the Suns and Sixers. The result there was the best back to back performances in franchise history as never before had we seen a Hornets team win by 20+ point margins on consecutive nights. The task is certainly harder this evening, and though Charlotte is at home, Indiana has revenge and is likely to be the better team here. Take the points.

I'm coming off a win with the Pacers in their last game, which was a 104-99 (-2) decision at Milwaukee on Wednesday. That victory snapped a three-game losing streak for them and as I wrote in my analysis this team simply performs much better in conference games. They are now 24-12 ATS vs. the rest of the East after covering two nights ago. That record would be even better w/o a pair of outright losses to the Hornets (both at home). This being a double revenge spot, where both losses occurred over the past month, I'd expect a focused effort from Paul George and company here. Note that Indiana has NEVER been swept in a season series by Charlotte.

While I've "defended" the Hornets as a legit playoff contender for much of the year, the fact is right now their stock is actually a bit too high.  I go back to the fact they got to play two of the worst teams in the league to open March. Neither the Suns nor Sixers could manage to shoot better than 40% from the floor while Charlotte averaged 122.5 PPG against two bad defenses.  Looking back to those first two Pacers-Hornets matchups, the difference was that Charlotte was able to make three-pointers while Indiana could not. The former went 23 of 57 from behind the arc while the latter was 8 for 37. I look for the "script to be flipped" here and Indiana to build off Wednesday's win where seven players scored in double figures. 8* Indiana

8* Arizona State (11:00 ET):  This is a revenge spot for the Sun Devils, who lost by only two (as two-point dogs) in Palo Alto on January 23rd.  Given that result, you would figure that they would be asked to lay more in the rematch tonight in Tempe. But your would have figured wrong as ASU is off four straight losses here, the last three all coming on the road, making them extremely undervalued in my estimation.  Meanwhile, Stanford is off B2B home wins as 1-pt underdogs (both games) over USC and UCLA, the latter allowing them to shoot a blistering 61.2% from the floor.  That won't be repeated here as the Cardinal are a pretty woeful 2-6 SU and ATS on the road. Buy low/sell high!  Take the Sun Devils.

Not only did ASU just lose three straight on the road, but they were blown out every time. There was a 38-point loss at Arizona, a 35-point loss at Utah and 10 pt loss at Colorado. Yikes! Granted, they were double digit dogs in all two of those games (not Colorado), but still they should have performed better.  Perhaps a return home is all they need as they average 78.5 PPG here and are 10-5 SU. Even after getting blown out three straight times, YTD numbers still indicate that this is a pretty competitive team, one that has been been outscored by less than a point per game overall.  In the first matchup with Stanford, they lost on a last second shot (w/ just 3.2 seconds to play), so there's no shame there.

Just like ASU is not as bad as they've looked recently, Stanford is not as good as recent performances might seem to indicate. While they've won four of five overall, before that they had lost four in a row (also 0-4 ATS).  That shooting percentage against UCLA was pretty astounding. Not only was it (again, 61.2%!) a season-high but it also marked just the second time since the second game of the season that the Cardinal topped 50%!  Wanna bet it drops tonight? On the road, this team shoots just 39.2 percent, including 27.5% from three-point range, so the corresponding poor record is not a shock or any kind of fluke. In their last road game, they scored just 53 points in a double-digit loss to Washington.  8* Arizona State

8* Marist (9:00 ET):  This is a first round matchup in the MAAC Tournament, which will be hosted by the #3 seed Siena.  What's interesting here about the #6 (Manhattan) vs. #11 (Marist) matchup is that is expected to be closer than either the #8 vs. #9 or #7 vs. #10 matchups.  Manhattan and Marist exchanged victories during the regular season, each winning on the others floor, which is odd because neither squad was particularly good away from home overall.  Early money came in on the underdog Red Foxes, probably because it isn't often that Manhattan is actually favored and the Jaspers closed the regular season w/ three consecutive losses. One of those saw them let me down, as seven-point home dogs vs. Iona. I've learned my lesson. Take the points here.

Marist, meanwhile, is off B2B wins. Both were at home, but encouraging is that each was decided by a double digit margin as they easily covered the spread.  That was a nice change of pace for a team that has suffered a number of close losses throughout the year. Seven times this season, the Red Foxes have lost by four points or less, which is a stark contrast to having just two wins in such contests.  They come off perhaps their best game all season, a 91-77 win over Quinnipiac, as they shot 56.4% from the floor.  Typically, I might want to fade a team coming off such a performance, but the conference tournament setting nullifies that mentality, plus you have the fact that the Red Foxes had the weekend off, giving them two extra days to prepare here.

Manhattan's regular season did not conclude until Sunday when they were beaten 60-57 by Rider.  At least they left w/ the cash as six-point dogs in that one. But the bottom line is the Jaspers have covered the spread just one time in conference play when laying more than a basket!  With the winner of this game being matched up w/ tourney host Siena tomorrow, it won't be a long stay for the winner, but the bottom line here is I expect Marist to pull the upset, something they were able to do at Manhattan earlier this year.  8* Marist

8* Eastern Washington (9:05 ET):  Eastern Washington is a team w/ one of the strongest home court edges in the entire country. I mean, it's pretty ridiculous what they've been able to accomplish this season in Cheney. Not only are they a perfect 10-0 straight up, but their average margin of victory is an astounding 23.4 points per game here. This isn't the first time I've played the Eagles at home this year; I had them in a 10-point win over North Dakota back on Feb 11.  That was actually one of their closest decisions of the year and now being off B2B road losses, EWU should be set to "explode" at the expense of Big Sky also-ran Idaho State. Lay the number.

EWU actually played its last three games on the road. The trip started out well w/ a 93-88 win and cover over Sacramento State. But then they forgot to pack their defense in a 107-91 loss at Portland State, a game that saw them trailing by 20 at halftime.  Saturday marked a frustrating effort at the offensive end of the floor as they scored only 62 points in a four-point loss.  Keep in mind that the Eagles are #5 in offensive efficiency in the entire country. After shooting just 43 percent overall vs. Idaho, including 0 for 7 from three-point range, they should absolutely improve here at home where they average a whopping 96 PPG!  Not only does the team average 12 made three-pointers per game at home, but they are shooting 55.4% overall from the floor for the season!

Idaho State actually has the same conference record as EWU, but as this line illustrates, the Eagles' home court edge is quite significant and far more important than the respective 10-6 SU records in Big Sky play. Idaho State checks in off a 76-69 win over Montana State, but note that was a tie game w/ five minutes left.  The Bengals made 10 three-pointers, more than we're accustomed to seeing from them, and not only is EWU's home court edge very significant but it is compounded by the fact the visitors here are just 4-9 SU in "true" road games this season. The Bengals of Idaho State see their offensive numbers decline significantly away from home and simply lack the firepower to compete tonight.  8* Eastern Washington

10* Arizona (9:00 ET):  This is a big revenge spot for #18 Arizona (lost by one at Cal on Jan 23rd), who is off B2B losses to boot. I was on Cal in the season's first meeting, as they were 2.5-point dogs in Berkeley where they have still yet to taste defeat at home all season long (18-0 SU).  Following that upset, the Bears would drop B2B games. But they've since won and covered seven in a row, strengthening their case to be at worst an at-large team in the NCAA Tournament. But while they have won at both Washington schools during that stretch, the fact is the team is still just 3-6 SU in "true" road games and the McKale Center in Tuscon is a place where only one visitor (Oregon, this year) has triumphed in the last 54 tries. Lay the points.

This game caught my eye quickly, not just because Arizona is at home and off B2B losses, but also due to the fact the line jumped almost immediately.  Clearly, I am not the only one anticipating Sean Miller's team to bounce back in this spot. Given that the Wildcats don't just win here, but regularly blow visitors out (+20.4 PPG at home), it's certainly a reasonable assertion to have. The two losses on the road last week (at Colorado, Utah) both came by single digits as have all others this season. In fact, five of the seven have been by four points or less.  So, let's not go writing this team off just yet.  Though they lost the first time to Cal, it's not as if they played poorly. Also, that game saw them take the court w/o their leading scorer, freshman Allonzo Trier.  Coming off a game-high 23 pts at Utah over the weekend, Trier's presence tonight should make a big difference. 

Cal averages roughly 8.5 points per game less on the road compared to at home.  That clearly plays a role in their striking home vs. road dichotomy.  There is no denying that this team's stock is really high right now, especially right after blowing out USC over the weekend. But, as my regular clients will attest to, I often choose to "sell high" on a team and that's the opportunity we have here. This is Cal's toughest game of the entire Pac 12 slate and Arizona comes in with an extra day to prepare. The difference in the Bears defensive numbers (home vs. road) is just as severe as the offensive numbers.  10* Arizona

8* Phoenix (7:35 ET):  This is a real "hold your nose" and take the points kind of situation as since Christmas no team in the league has been worse than the Suns and you're probably all too aware of that. But taking both theirs and Miami's last game into account, we've got to be getting some sort of regression to the mean on both sides. Phoenix was absolutely clobbered on Tuesday, losing by 34 to Charlotte. That's pretty inexcusable, but when you consider the team was off its first win in more than a month, I suppose its understandable. Meanwhile, Miami just shot an insane 67.5% from the floor (not a misprint!) in its last game, a 129-111 win over Chicago. The Heat only average 97.5 PPG (one of the lowest marks in the league), so that kind of offensive showing is highly irregular and the idea of them laying double digits their next time out sounds a bit "iffy" to me.  Take the points.

Make no mistake about it - Miami is playing well right now. They've covered six of seven, winning five of those games straight up and one of the two losses was to Golden State. But that certainly doesn't disqualify them from potentially being undervalued for this contest.  Remember that they are still w/o Chris Bosh (blood clot).  This will be just the second time all year that they've been favored by more than 12.5 points. They failed the first time, beating Philadelphia by only five back in November. In fact, since that time, they have been double digit dogs three times, which is three times more than they've been double digit favorites (0). After scoring 105+ points the previous game, the Heat are just 4-7 ATS their next time out.

There's no sugarcoating how bad Phoenix has been on the road this season (4-24 straight up!), but they probably won't be any worse here than Chicago was on Tuesday against the Heat. Consider that Miami ranks dead last in the league in three-point percentage (31.9%), but made half of their attempts from behind the arc against the Bulls.  Some of the improvement is owed to the Joe Johnson acquisition, but still I see them regressing here. For Phoenix, things can't possibly be worse than they were in the last game. They'll stay within the number, which has actually come down despite the majority of bets being on the Heat (smart money alert!) 8* Phoenix

8* UCLA (9:00 ET):  UCLA is a team whose stock is considered to be "down" right now as the Bruins have dropped B2B games (both on the road), not to mention five of their last seven, leaving the team's NCAA Tournament status tenuous at best. With a 15-14 SU record, it looks increasingly likely that they will have to win the Pac 12 Tournament just to make the Big Dance. But while tonight offers up a challenge, it's also a big opportunity to break through. Oregon, currently alone in first place in the conference, comes calling and this is not just a revenge spot, but Senior Night as well. Given UCLA did not play many home games in February (just two), I expect motivation to be high here and an upset to be pulled.  Take the points.

Looking at the two times the Bruins got to play in Pauley Pavillion last month, one resulted in a two-point loss (to Utah) and the other was a 20-pt win over Colorado. They've since lost at Cal and Stanford, the latter coming Saturday as one-point favorites. The two road games in three days scenario is brutal in the Pac 12, so I wasn't surprised to see the week go so badly. Note, however, that at home UCLA is 10-4 straight up and outscoring opponents by 9.3 points per game.  That includes 2-0 SU and ATS as a dog with those upsets coming at the expense of Arizona and Kentucky (quite impressive!). They let Stanford shoot 61.5% Saturday. As good as Oregon might be, they are highly unlikely to match that kind of shooting tonight.

Teams at the top of the polls have been losing to unranked opponents at a historic pace this season, at least when they're on the road. Oregon, now in the top 10, has a losing road record this season (3-5 straight up) and was clobbered in a similar spot last month at California, losing by 20. I was on the Bears there and then the Ducks would follow that loss up w/ another, this time by four at Stanford.  They've rebounded with three straight wins, but all were at home (where they are 18-0 SU) against double digit underdogs. Though they won the first meeting vs. UCLA by 14, I do not believe they should be favored here.  UCLA has not lost three consecutive Pac 12 games since 2010.  8* UCLA

8* San Antonio (8:05 ET):  Though I figure the Spurs must soon fall from their lofty ATS perch (league-best 37-22), it won't be here. Unless you've been under a rock for the duration of the season, the Spurs unblemished 28-0 SU home record is not news. Best of all is that when you subtract the two games this year in which they were an underdog (obviously, both on the road) that ATS record jumps to 37-20. That includes 7-1 when in this price range (-9 to -12.5) at home, so I'd argue that it's the Pistons, not the Spurs, that come in overvalued for this one. The reason being Detroit has won and covered four straight, including upsets of the top two teams in the East (Cleveland & Toronto). But the road has been unkind to SVG's troops as they are just 13-18 SU/ATS outside the Motor City.  Lay the points.

These teams met not that long ago (January 12th) and the Spurs won 109-99 as 6.5-point favorites.  That's pretty significant considering how good the Pistons have been at home. Also, using that line as our baseline, the number here should clearly be higher, especially seeing as San Antonio covered that first meeting.  I expect Detroit to really struggle to score here. They shot just 41.8% against the Spurs the first go-around and are one of the worst shooting teams in the league overall. In terms of "true shooting percentage" (which weighs free throw and 3-pt attempts), only the Lakers are worse. I probably don't have to tell you that San Antonio is #1 in the league in terms of defensive efficiency by a pretty wide margin. Here at home (where their avg MOV = 16.1 PPG), they give up only 90.4 PPG. 

It's important to note that Detroit did not have to contend with Toronto's Kyle Lowry (rest) in the last game. Also, they shot a season-best 58% from the floor (also season-high in assists w/ 28).  Those numbers will almost surely decline tonight as they aren't going to be making 12 three-pointers again.  In many ways, Sunday was one of the Pistons' best games all season. The difference for the Spurs is that those kind of performances are more commonplace. Back at home for the first time since before the All-Star Break ("Rodeo Road Trip" complete!), they should come out very strong here in a nationally televised contest.  8* San Antonio

8* Indiana (8:05 ET): After coming up short in three straight, including a tough loss in Cleveland to start the week, the Pacers should be a team focused on winning Wednesday night in Milwaukee. They'll find a Bucks team in off a surprising win, 128-121 (+3) over Houston, that was exciting yet that kind of performance will be hard to duplicate. The Rockets are just atrocious defensively and the Bucks were able to take advantage by topping 30 points in three of the four quarters, including 36 in the critical fourth. Indiana has not lost four in a row at any point in the season, going 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS when off three straight defeats, and given the short number in play here, I'm willing to lay it.

The Pacers really let me down Sunday when they lost at home to Portland, 111-102. But playing w/o rest in Cleveland (who was off a bad loss itself Sunday), they showed me something in sticking with the favored Cavaliers, losing only 100-96 as eight-point dogs.  Were it not for Lebron James, Indiana probably wins that game, which they led by four w/ just under five minutes left. Though they've now lost five straight division road games, the fact remains the Pacers are 10-2 ATS vs. the rest of the Central this year. Also important to note is their 23-12 ATS record vs. the entire East. For whatever reason, this team performs much better against the opponents that "they know."

These teams are certainly familiar with one another as it will be the third meeting of the season. They split two games in Indiana w/ the Pacers winning the first in blowout fashion (by 37!), but losing the second by four.  Milwaukee shot 58.4% in their win, similar to the 59.3 FG% they turned in vs. the Rockets. But often times we will see a team come back "down to Earth" following such a hot-shooting performance and that's what I anticipate here. A new starting lineup has breathed some much-needed life into these Bucks, but I seriously doubt Giannis Antetokounmpo is going for a triple double in B2B games.  Even after winning five of eight, Milwaukee remains "out of it," a full six games back of the Pacers.  8* Indiana

10* Chicago (7:05 ET):  I've been writing off the Bulls as any kind of legit contender in the East for some time now, but now things have reached the point of crisis as Fred Hoiberg's outfit has dropped three in a row and is no longer in the top eight in the Conference. Point differential says this is no fluke as they are being outscored by 1.3 points per 100 possessions over the course of the season, worse than every team in the top eight.  But, now in full on desperation mode, I'm going to back them plus the points tonight in Orlando.  The Magic, like the Bulls, lost yday and haven't been playing particularly well of late. Sure,they have two wins over the last six games, but that's because they were lucky enough to play Philadelphia twice. Road teams are often undervalued in the second of B2B games and that's what we have here.

Orlando has covered seven of the last eight times these teams have played. That includes a 92-87 loss early this season where they were taking eight. That game now seems like "forever ago" and the bottom line is that after opening the season 21-9 ATS, the Magic are just 11-17-1 ATS their last 29 games.  As a favorite, a role they've been in more than you might think, the YTD record is a very respectable 15-5 SU/12-8 ATS. But that's come at the expense of facing a lot of bad teams. For example, Philadelphia, whom they beat handily twice in the last week or so. Defense, or rather lack of it, is becoming a major issue for Scott Skiles, who has watched his team allow 118 PPG its last five. Four of those five games, including Philly twice, have seen the opponent score 115 or more. Dallas shot a season-best 56 percent against the Magic last night en route to 121 points. Over the L26 games, Orlando has allowed an average of 107.1 PPG.

Of course, Chicago has its own issues defensively.  In what Pau Gasol rightly termed a "terrible effort," the team allowed Miami to shoot a preposterous 67.5%(!) from the floor, the highest percentage in any NBA game since 2010.  The Heat are one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league, but finished the game w/ a season-best 129 points.  As bad as that may sound, there's no way Orlando can be any better and given their own recent form, they make an ideal matchup for the Bulls. In games where the total is 210+, the Bulls are 4-1 ATS this season. 10* Chicago

10* Duquesne (7:00 ET): Hardly a "marquee" game on the Wednesday slate, this matchup of A-10 also-rans offers some solid value.  Duquesne plays its final home game and you have to figure they'll be desperate. If they don't win here, then it likely will be a nine-game losing streak entering the Conference Tourney due to having to travel to St. Joe's this weekend. Yes, despite seven straight losses, the Dukes are actually favored here. I like this play because Fordham, perennially the worst team the A-10 has to offer, has actually won three of its last four including an upset of Davidson its last time out. So, the value here resides in going against the Rams, who have not been off B2B wins since playing a very weak non-conference slate. Lay the short number.

In fact, this is the first time we find Fordham off B2B wins in the A-10 all year. Last Wednesday, they found themselves in the rare role of favorite, playing last place LaSalle. The Rams won there, albeit barely, as the final score was 56-53 (laying 3). Note that LaSalle is very bad and easily the worst team in the conference this season. Saturday, however, saw the Rams down a pretty good Davidson team, 91-82 as four-point home dogs. All five starters scored in double figures and the team shot better than 51% from the floor, their highest percentage in a game since facing Richmond on January 10th. Needless to say, we should see a decline here. On the road this season, Fordham is 2-7 straight up and being outscored by 9.9 points per game. One of the wins was at LaSalle, the other at UMass, who also stinks.

I'm not going to make the case that Duquesne is any kind of "world-beater," but most of their recent losses have been close (five by single digits, three by four pts or less). Unfortunately, they ran into Richmond (off three straight losses) at the wrong time and lost 83-67 (line was pick 'em!) Saturday.  The Dukes typically have no problems scoring here at home; they average 83.5 PPG on 47% shooting.  Richmond came out really hot & defense is a bit of a concern, but not here w/ Fordham only averaging 63.1 PPG on 40.1% shooting away from home.  It's Senior Night and that always adds to the motivation, something the Dukes should already not be lacking in, given the long losing streak. 10* Duquesne

10* New Mexico (9:30 ET): The famed "Pit" in Albuquerque has long been known as one of, if not the, most difficult venue to play at in the Mountain West. Despite a down year for New Mexico, that statement continues to hold true as the Lobos are 12-3 straight up at home. But that's including a loss in their last game, 92-82 to Fresno State as 6.5-point favorites.  That loss, the team's third straight overall, came about despite shooting at a 53.2% clip and leading scorer Elijah Brown contributing a career-high 41 points.  What went wrong? Aside from allowing 51 second half points, the Lobos turned the ball over 18 times. On Senior Night, as a rare home dog, I expect them to bounce back though. 

San Diego State, who already has the MWC regular season title all wrapped up, is also off an outright loss here. They too were 6.5-point favorites when they fell (by three) to Boise State over the weekend, at home.  It was just their second loss in the last 16 games and it came in spectacular fashion as the Broncos erased a nine-point deficit w/ less than two minutes remaining. That was the Aztecs first game since clinching the regular season crown, by the way. Remember that the conference is way down this year. That doesn't mean that New Mexico isn't a worthy challenger here though, if anything, the Lobos should be highly motivated to avenge a seven-point loss from last month. The line there was only -5, so I don't really understand why the home team isn't favored again here. 

Furthermore, that first meeting went to overtime and that was only after SDSU rallied back from a five-point deficit w/ just over 20 seconds to go in regulation! There was a controversial call on an inbounds pass that went the Aztecs way and the result was them getting the ball back and then tying the game up with a three-pointer.  I mentioned earlier that New Mexico has now lost three straight following Saturday and they have actually been the favorite in all three of those games!  They also will be motivated here by the fact they've lost three straight times to the Aztecs. "Funny things" tend to happen on Senior Night and the Lobos do average more than 80 PPG at home. San Diego State does not tend to shoot the ball well on the road. 10* New Mexico

8* Iowa (9:00 ET):  This is a rematch. In the first meeting, which was in Bloomington obviously, I played Indiana. That play won and unforeseeable at the time is that it would begin a downward spiral for the Hawkeyes that has seen them drop four of five (0-5 ATS) w/ the lone win coming by four over lowly Minnesota. They have lost three in a row outright as favorites, including their first and only home loss (to Wisconsin) last Wednesday. That was followed up by losing at Ohio State, 68-64, on Sunday. Stock is down in Iowa City right now, but you know me, that makes it the perfect opportunity to "buy low" here. Indiana is off a big win last Thursday (had the weekend off), guaranteeing itself at least a share of the Big 10 regular season crown, but I don't see them beating Iowa twice in the same season. Lay the short number.

Iowa really hurt themselves at the free throw line in the first matchup. Even though they had more attempts than Indiana (on the road), they finished w/ five less makes. That's pretty significant in a game they lost by only seven points.  Also significant here is the change in venue.  We know that Indiana has, arguably, the strongest home court edge in the entire country.  They have not lost one time at Assembly Hall this season and average a ton of points per game there. But on the road, the Hoosiers are only 3-6 ATS (in "true" road games) and averaging well below their season average of 82.9 points per game (74.1).  Again, Iowa had not dropped a home game itself before falling to Wisconsin last week. Despite that result, they have outscored visitors on average by 15 PPG at Carver-Hawkeye Arena this season.

I'm simply not buying Iowa's recent form as any kind of long-term trend. They've shot only 40.7 percent from the floor including a season-worst 32.7% in their last home game. There were zero bench points scored in the first meeting vs. Indiana and that number can obviously only go up. On Sunday, they led Ohio State by six points w/ just over four minutes to go. Against Wisconsin, they were up six w/ just over 10 minutes remaining.  They've lost by a total of 16 pts these last three games and this is their longest losing skid of the season to date. Indiana will not be as prolific as they were LW at Illinois. 8* Iowa

10* Under Magic/Mavericks (8:35 ET):  Scoring has been up for both of these teams lately, both when it comes to points scored and allowed. For Dallas, the Over has cashed in eight straight games. They've topped 100 themselves in each of the last seven, in fact, they've scored 114 or more in five of them. Three of the last four have seen them top 120, though one of those games (vs. Denver) went to overtime.  This all sounds very impressive, but the schedule has been weak and the fact remains the team averages and allows only right around 102 points per game. Their opponents here have seen a similar surge in scoring recently, including their highest scoring game (excluding OT) to date, a 130-point effort vs. lowly Philadelphia on Sunday. Again, regression to the mean is in the cards.  Take the Under. 

The Mavs also recently achieved their season high in points scored at the Sixers' expense. They dropped 129 back on February 29th and came up just one point shy of that mark w/ a 128-101 win over Minnesota on Sunday. They shot 64 percent in the first quarter en route to 39 points. It's highly unlikely that they'll come out so hot again.  Similarly, Orlando shot a blistering 57% for the game against Philly on Sunday (62% from 3-pt range), which they won't top here as it was their best shooting game all year. They turned in their highest scoring first (40) and second (36) quarter of the year! Considering the Sixers last eight opponents have averaged almost 119 PPG, it's no wonder that the Magic scored a total of 254 pts against them in two games over the last week. Dallas won't be rolling over like that.

By the way, four of the Mavs' six previous games have gone to overtime, so beware of inflated point totals there. One of them was against this Orlando team, which ended up being a 110-104 Magic win. That game saw Dallas make a season-high 19 three-pointers, but they still lost. The game was just 98-98 at the end of regulation. Yet the total for the rematch is significantly higher. Obviously, it is due to the recent hot shooting of both teams, but I can't help but think those numbers are going to start to go down. Orlando averages only 98.6 PPG on the road and they are 11-4 Under this season after scoring 105+ points their previous game. 10* Under Magic/Mavericks

10* New York (7:35 ET): Since December, much has changed for Portland. You have to remember that this was a team that had to replace four starters from last year, including All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge, and opened only 11-20 (straight up) out of the gate.  However, following the X-Mas Break, the Blazers have gone 21-8 SU and that includes a very strong 9-2 February. Turning back to December, however, there was a game against the Knicks that they lost 112-110. That was at home and the Blazers were 3.5-pt chalk. I realize that "much has changed," but it certainly does appear that the Knicks are now a really solid value taking more points at home than they did at the Moda Center 2.5 months ago.  Take the points.

Now, while the Blazers are surging, the Knicks are clearly fading.  After the disastrous season that was 2014-15, the latter was a nice early season story. But it didn't take long for former HC Derek Fisher to get sacked and the team is 3-14 SU its last 17 games. Believe it or not, but at the time of the first meeting, the Knicks had a better overall record than the Blazers! Don't think for a second that the oddsmakers haven't taken note and as a result we have an inflated line for the rematch.  Remember what I always say about "selling high" & "buying low?" It certainly applies here. Portland still has a losing road record (13-16 SU) for the year (-2.0 PPG) and this will be their third straight away from home of what will be a six-game trip (all out East).

Interestingly enough, the Blazers have been a road favorite only seven times all year. Three of those games were against the Nets, Sixers and Lakers. So this is a bit of 'rarefied air' for them.  Eventually, this incredible run that PG Damian Lillard is on has to come to a bit of a halt. He has scored 30+ pts in seven of the last eight games, a stretch certainly to be commended, but I don't think he can continue to keep it up. Only four guards all season have scored 30+ against the Knicks.  Maybe New York reached a point in the year where they were overvalued, but that time is no longer and they are still 21-17 ATS when taking points. Taking away games where they are playing w/ two or more days rest (11-1 ATS in that situation), the Blazers have a losing ATS record.  10* New York

8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET):  Brooklyn has started what will end up being a nine-game road trip with three consecutive covers, including B2B "upsets."  I use the quotation marks there because they were bet to the underdog role in Phoenix last Thursday, but clearly Saturday was a surprise as they were taking 11.5 points in Utah.  It was an identical number last week in Portland (only lost by eight), but while those lines may both have been too high, this one is not nearly high enough. A huge gap exists between the top four and the rest of the field in the Western Conference and the Clippers are among the former group. After being shocked by Denver here at home Wednesday (I had the Nuggets +10.5!), LA rebounded by blowing out Sacramento on the road Friday. They had the weekend off, so lack of rest won't be an issue. Lay the points.

Meanwhile, being on the road for a week could start to take its toll on the lowly Nets, who only have six wins away from home all season. They won't be back home again until March 13th and that's clearly bad news for a team that's already being outscored by almost 7.5 points per game on the road.  Look for their scoring to start to decrease as they average only 96.9 PPG on the road for the season, but have been above that number each of the last three games.  Playing at an increased tempo has led Brooklyn to shoot nearly 45% from three-point range the last nine games. Again, that number will start to regress back to the mean as they are only 34.7% from behind the arc for the season. It's the same players shooting remember. 

The Clippers have covered four of five and got a season-high 40 points (w/ 13 assists) from Chris Paul on Friday.  Before that, defense had actually been the story, holding three of the previous four opponents under 90 points.  Here at the Staples Center, Los Angeles is 19-10 SU and outscoring teams by 6.7 points per game. Maybe that doesn't sound impressive, but when considering Brooklyn's YTD numbers on the road, this line should be higher. My own personal power ratings have the Clips favored by 15.5 in this spot.  The Nets lost by almost 40 in their lone visit to LA to play the Clippers last season.  8* LA Clippers

8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET):  It's always a challenge to drum up any support to play on the Sixers and here they figure to get little in the way of support given they just lost to the Wizards by nine (at home) on Friday. But each team has played a game since then and those respective results have greatly influenced this line from where I sit. Philadelphia lost (again) Sunday, this time 130-116 in Orlando, a wild affair that featured little to no defense. Meanwhile, Washington pulled a major upset yday, beating Cleveland at home, though the "impressiveness" of that win is somewhat minimized by the fact that LeBron James did not play. The Wiz have not had the greatest of seasons and the idea of them laying double digits isn't something I'd be too keen on.  Take the points.

From previous analysis we know that teams playing in the second of back to back road games are often undervalued, especially as an underdog.  Philly hasn't fared particularly well in this situation, but after five consecutive ATS losses, you have to think there will be at least a little bit of value on them in this price range.  This will be an unprecedented price range for the Wizards, as in it's the most points they've been asked to lay in any game so far this season! The only other time they came in as double digit chalk, they ended up losing outright to the Lakers here at home. Going back to previous seasons, the Wiz are just 3-10 ATS the L13 times they have been favorites of at least 12.5 points.

The Sixers actually scored their season high in points (on 53.2% shooting) Sunday. So that likely means we're getting a decrease in scoring here, but at the same time we should see improved defense as it can't get any worse than 130 pts allowed on 57% shooting (Magic scored 77 pts in the 1st half!). As I've previously written about, Washington is hardly an efficient offense as they are top five in pace (point of emphasis for them coming into the year), but are in a tie for 17th in points per 100 possessions. Things have gotten better since the All-Star Break (won five of seven), but after a win like yday (which was a bit misleading w/ no James), their stock is now a little bit too high in my estimation, so I say it's time to fade. 8* Philadelphia

8* North Carolina (7:00 ET):  The Tar Heels lost on Saturday, but considering they were at Virginia (as slight underdogs), that's fairly excusable. The final score was 79-74 and I cashed the Over, but tonight I'm willing to lay the points as they're back in Chapel Hill. Earlier this season, at the Carrier Dome, UNC downed Syracuse 84-73 as 7.5-point chalk. Using that number as a baseline, it does appear that we have a little bit of value on the home favorite tonight (should be about an eight-point swing from road to home in NCAA). Syracuse is pretty pedestrian away from home while North Carolina is 14-1 SU here at the Dean Dome, outscoring its opponents on average by about 21 points per game.  Lay the number.

UNC does have a big revenge spot upcoming at Duke on Saturday, so they'll have to avoid looking ahead. But considering the loss two nights ago, I'm counting on the proper focus here.  Off its last loss (which was the one to Duke), the Tar Heels came back and blew out a very good Miami team here by 25 points. Only once all season has the team dropped B2B games and both were on the road. The Heels actually shot the ball reasonably well against a Virginia team that is among the best defensively in the entire country. In fact, they finished the game at 49.2% from the field, including 9 of 19 on three-pointers (47.4%). But where they killed themselves was at the FT line where they went just 7 for 13. Virginia had more made FT's than UNC even had attempts. Despite having lost four times in February, I see no reason to panic in Chapel Hill as Roy Williams' team averages 86.8 PPG here.

Syracuse is just 1-7 ATS the last three seasons when attempting to avenge a home loss. Prior to beating North Carolina State (at home) on Saturday, the Orange had dropped B2B games while being held under 60 points both times. That's not a good sign here. They did win at Duke last month, but generally speaking, the 'Cuse have failed to "step up" when taking on the upper echelon of the ACC.  Against NC State, one of their own (Michael Gbinjie) scored a career-high 34 pts while Wolfpack leading scorer Anthony Barber was held to only 15.  As a team, the Orange made 12 three-pointers. I can't see that happening again tonight, so with UNC looking to hold down a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, look for them to win in convincing fashion. 8* North Carolina

10* Indiana (6:05 ET): I was a little surprised to see Portland win yday in Chicago, at least as comfortably as they did.  Granted, the Bulls did not have their full compliment of players (no Derrick Rose, not to mention no Butler or Noah), but still... the Blazers led by 10 at the half and never really looked back.  When is the inevitable regression to the mean going to take place w/ this team? They've won 16 of 20 overall, including seven of their last eight (6-2 ATS). But despite last night's win, they remain 12-16 SU on the road, getting outscored by 2.4 points per game. How much longer can they simply "count on" their outstanding backcourt of Damian Lillard (31 pts last night) and CJ McCollum? Playing in the second game of a back to back, I expect the Blazers to stumble Sunday in Indiana. Lay the short number.

The Pacers have now failed to cover three in a row after an outright loss to Charlotte (here at home) on Friday. That loss came by a single point as the Hornets' Kemba Walker was able to answer Monta Ellis w/ a game winner when just 2.4 seconds were left on the clock.  Yet, they appear to be a little bit undervalued in this situation given their strong record when favored (25-10 straight up) and against .500 or better teams (19-8 ATS).  They are outscoring teams by 4.2 PPG here at home this season. I constantly preach the importance of "buying low" and here is a good opportunity to do so with Indiana. 

Portland took the season's first meeting, 123-111 thanks to making a ridiculous 18 three-pointers.  For the season, they average 10 makes per game from behind the arc. I feel confident in forecasting that we'll be seeing a decrease in production offensively here. Also, I find it interesting that Indiana was actually a 2.5-point favorite in Portland back in December. That again illustrates the kind of value we appear to be getting here.  I often make the case that teams, especially road teams, are often undervalued in the second game of a back to back. But because they've been so hot, that's not the case here with the Blazers, who are just 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS in this situation anyway. The Pacers have had their struggles vs. the West this year (7-17 ATS), but did win at Oklahoma City right after the All-Star Break and I'd expect that trend to progress back to average. 10* Indiana

8* Seton Hall (12:30 ET):  The respective statuses of these two Big East teams, as it pertains to the NCAA Tournament, is quite different entering this Sunday afternoon matchup. Xavier, ranked 5th in the country right now, is battling for a #1 seed in the big dance. Meanwhile, Seton Hall finds itself firmly on the bubble, even though they've won three in a row including an 18-point beatdown of Providence earlier this week. The Pirates have been one of the better teams to bet on in the entire country this season w/ a 17-8 ATS mark including 9-2 last 11. Where they've really excelled is in the underdog role as they are a perfect 5-0 ATS their last five including three outright upsets. I'll call for another here as Xavier is in a letdown spot off the big win over #1 Villanova.

These teams met last month & it was Xavier winning (but not covering) 84-76 as nine-point chalk. Neither team shot the ball particularly well, especially from three-point range, but where Seton Hall really killed itself was from the line. They made only 10 of 19 free throws, which was a big deal when you consider Xavier was 18 for 22.  Also, reserve James Farr came in and contributed career highs in both points (24) and rebounds (15). Like the free throw discrepancy, that probably won't be repeated again today. The home team has now won each of the last four meetings with the final margin being at least eight points every time. Seton Hall has just three home losses on its resume, one of them coming by only a single point to Villanova. This is their final home game this year. 

I mentioned earlier that Seton Hall has covered five straight in the underdog role. They are 9-1 ATS overall this season when taking points and a highly impressive 28-14 ATS L42.  Overall, they've also covered eight of their last 10 games against teams that have a winning record.  Those impressive marks are largely owed to having perhaps the best defense in the conference. Opponents are shooting just 39.3% overall vs. the Hall, including 30.7% from three-point range (last year Xavier missed 18 of 19!). Providence was held to 28.4% Thursday. Xavier, off the 90-point effort vs. Villanova, is prone to a letdown in this spot. 8* Seton Hall

8* Oklahoma City (8:35 ET):  While just about anyone (myself included) would have both of these teams ranked among the top 4 in the league (GSW either 1st or 2nd, OKC either 3rd or 4th), the truth is that they are miles apart when it comes to the pointspread.  The Warriors trail only the Spurs in the ATS standings (32-23-2  to 36-22-0) and of course they are 52-5 straight up, on pace for the best record in league history.  Meanwhile, the Thunder have the worst ATS record in the league at 22-35-1 ATS (have been at or near the bottom much of the year) after losing outright in New Orleans Thursday night. Predictably, the public is on the short road favorite in this one, but I'm going the other way as OKC is 25-7 SU at home and has yet to be an underdog here in any game this season.  Take the points!

This will be the second Saturday night primetime meeting between these two this month.  I did not have a play on that first meeting, a 116-108 Golden State win that fell right on the number.  Note that it was a high-scoring first half and the Warriors had a 73-59 lead going into the break.  But with the public moving in on them here, Steph Curry and company are a little overvalued, which is something that I haven't been able to say much this season. The fact is both they and the Spurs are significantly ahead of the rest of the league, but with homecourt advantage I expect the Thunder to be quite competitive, if not pull off the outright win. Remember all five Warriors losses this season have come out on the road. They are due to regress (at least against the pointspread) and Curry should see his own production drop after a 51-pt effort Thursday in Orlando. This is the final game of a seven-game trip for the team.

The Thunder appeared to have righted the course w/ a 116-103 win in Dallas Wednesday, but then lost outright in New Orleans the following night. It was their third loss in four games since the All-Star Break even though they shot nearly 55% from the floor! You simply should not lose when back that hot from the floor and the issue here has been defense, or rather a lack of it.  Clearly then, Golden State coming to town is not promising, but consider the Thunder average 108.2 PPG at home while outscoring foes by almost nine points per game and 7-5 SU off a SU loss as a favorite. The Warriors do allow 107.5 PPG on the road.  8* Oklahoma City

10* Western Illinois (8:00 ET): The Leathernecks (still a great nickname!) let me down Thursday, losing here at home to IPFW (Indiana-Purdue Ft Wayne) aka the top ATS team in the country, 87-75 as 3.5-pt dogs.  It was their fourth loss in a row, guaranteeing them a last place finish in the Summit League. Tonight marks the regular season finale (at home) and they draw the team that's second from the bottom, South Dakota, who is off a surprising win (85-82 over IUPUI).  Revenge will be in the air tonight in Macomb as the Leathernecks lost to the Coyotes last month, 76-67 as 4.5-pt dogs.  But that result doesn't justify this line and Western Illinois should be highly motivated to win at home for its seniors.

I think that home court advantage and defense will play the deciding roles in this one. As far as the former is concerned, Western Illinois might only be 6-6 SU at home this season, but they have a point differential of +6.6 points per game, indicating that the record should be better. They're allowing just 66.6 PPG here (eerie numbers!) which is markedly better than what South Dakota gives up on the road (82.6 PPG allowed).  The Leathernecks endured a poor start to the second half Thursday and that's what cost them. They only trailed IPFW (Summit leaders) by five at halftime.  Coming after playing the top two teams in the league, South Dakota is a steep drop in class in terms of opponent for the Leathernecks, who are led by junior Garret Covington, who has gone over 20 points in four consecutive games.

South Dakota shoots the ball well overall, but Western Illinois is better from three-point range (38.4%) and that could end up being the difference here given the Coyotes struggles defending the arc.  Coming off their only other outright win as a dog in Summit League play, South Dakota ended up losing by 20 their next time out and as is the case here that was the second of B2B road games.  The Coyotes opened league play 2-7 SU, but have since won four of seven thanks to a home-heavy stretch.  The road will be unkind here.  10* Western Illinois

8* Over North Carolina/Virginia (6:30 ET):  When you think about Tony Bennett and Virginia, low-scoring games probably come to mind and sure enough the 3rd ranked Cavaliers have seen their last seven games all finish Under the posted total. But tonight they get a visit from #7 North Carolina and the Tar Heels should present a much greater challenge than recent opponents seeing as they come in averaging 83.7 points per game.  The Tar Heels have also been on a bit of a recent Under run (6-1 last 7), but that's also because the total is usually much higher than it is here.  In fact, it appears to be a virtual lock that this number will close as the lowest O/U line in any UNC game this season. Take the Over.

These two Top 10 teams have not met previously this season and won't again, save for a potential matchup in the ACC Tournament.  The two times they faced off last season (one in the ACC Tourney), the Over hit both times, albeit w/ lower totals.  UNC did not attempt many three-pointers in the two games, but they key was that they made them, going 11 of 23 from behind the arc. In the tournament game, they also made 57% of their two-point attempts. Coming into this game, the Tar Heels are at 48.3% on FG attempts for the year. Clearly, they will try and push tempo here and try to make this as high a possession game as possible. One thing that HC Roy Williams should be concerned about is his defense, which allows opponents to shoot 38.6% from three-point range. Virginia comes in shooting at better than a 40% clip from distance.

The Cavs' pack-line defense (made famous by Bennett's father, Dick) allows just 59.7 PPG.  They just allowed 64 points in a loss at Miami Monday (I made the right call on that one), their most given up in any game since a 72-71 win over Wake Forest back on January 26th.  But, it could be their offense that ends up being the difference in this one. They come off a 61-point effort in Coral Gables Monday, which tied their lowest scoring effort in ACC play all season.  That number should go up here. They'll likely hold UNC under its season average in points scored, but the Tar Heels have scored at least 65 in every conference game this season. 8* Over North Carolina/Virginia

10* Middle Tennessee (6:00 ET): Things are not looking especially great for Middle Tennessee right now. Not only did they just drop a tough one here at home to rival Western Kentucky Thursday, but leading scorer Gibby Potts (15.0 points per game) has been ruled out for an indefinite period of time due to a concussion. This is not good news for a team that has now dropped three of its last four to essentially "play its way out" of the race in Conference USA. However, there's been a clear overreaction to the injury by the oddsmakers as the Blue Raiders were just one-point dogs when they lost at Marshall (admittedly in blowout fashion) last month. Curiously, while the majority of the bets in this game have come in on the road dog, the line has actually gone UP. That's a sign of so-called "smart money" on the home favorite here, so I'm going to lay the short number.

Marshall finds itself in second place in C-USA, 1.5 games back of first place UAB.  That's not bad for a team that entered conference play at just 4-9 SU overall.  But while they did cover, it was a crushing 95-91 loss at UAB on Thursday, a game that saw the Thundering Herd turn the ball over only eight times. Playing that well and still coming up short in such a crucial game is bound to have a bit of a "carryover effect" here. The Herd have covered five straight games, but this is the dreaded second road game in three nights scenario, which is very difficult for most College Basketball teams.  Defensively, this team is a disaster as they allow not just 83.2 PPG overall, but also 89.9 PPG on the road (has to be the worst in the country!).  Twice in conference play, they have allowed more than 100 pts on the road.

Speaking of trouble defensively, Middle Tennessee's last few opponents couldn't miss.  Four of the last five have shot better than 51% from the floor, including UAB at 61.4%, but note that for the season the Blue Raiders are allowing just 43.2% shooting.  They are just 1-5 ATS L6 games, but were actually favored over first place UAB here in Murfreesboro where they are 10-3 SU w/ a point differential of +7.5 PPG.  This is their final home game of the season, so motivation should be quite high, especially coming off the B2B outright losses. They will not shoot nearly as poorly here as they did in the 1st meeting vs. Marshall (missed 13 of 16 three-point attempts).  10* Middle Tennessee

10* Under Heat/Celtics (3:05 ET):  Quietly, Boston has become one of the highest scoring teams in the league. Only three teams average more points per game (Warriors, Thunder, Kings), although they are just 10th in terms of efficiency (103.7 pts per 100 possessions). Over the last five games, however, they've taken things to a whole new level by averaging 117.4 PPG while at the same time allowing 115.4 PPG. That's well above season-long averages of 106.2/102.2 and tonight finds them facing the top Under team in the league (35-21-1), Miami. The Heat have also been seeing higher scoring games than per usual of late w/ a scoring average 108.6 PPG themselves while allowing 107.0 PPG.  It certainly seems as if we're due for a little "market correction" here. Take the Under.

The Celtics have topped 100 pts in 20 of their last 22 games. The two opponents that held them under triple digits were the Knicks (surprise) and Jazz. Getting held to 93 pts by Utah is notable here because the Jazz are currently #4 in the league in points allowed. Miami is tied for second (96.9) and is sixth in efficiency, well ahead of the Jazz.  Note Boston's scoring average from the past five games is heavily skewed due to a 139-134 overtime win over the Clippers. Still, the Over is a perfect 7-0 their last 7 games, but that's just a short-term trend as not only should the offense begin to tail off, but their defense also has to start tightening up. Their last five opponents have combined to shoot better than 50%, but fortunately the Heat are not strong offensively, particularly from three-point range where they are only 32.2% for the season.

Overall, Miami averages just 94.1 PPG on the road. They've gone over 100 pts in five consecutive contests, but not surprisingly four of those games took place at home.  They too recently played an overtime game (beat Indiana 101-93), then faced Golden State their last time out (lost 118-112), which obviously skews things from their perspective. As mentioned above, this is the top Under team in the league - by a pretty significant margin in fact - most notably going 21-9 (Under) vs. opponents with a winning record.  Other than Golden State on Wednesday, this would be the highest total for any Heat game all season. They are one of just three teams to neither score nor allow 100+ PPG and on average, their games are the lowest scoring in the league. 10* Under Heat/Celtics

8* IUPUI (1:00 ET):  Prepare for a bit of "alphabet soup" in this analysis as we have IUPUI taking on IUPUI-Ft Wayne (IPFW).  The latter, as we know, is the best ATS team in the league, now w/ a 20-5 mark. Their latest cover came Thursday night (at Western Illinois) and I happened to be on the wrong end of the 87-75 finale (IPFW was -3.5). Here, the Mastodons visit their chief rival in the Summit League in what is the regular season finale for both. IUPUI is off an outright loss here at home in their last game, by three to South Dakota (were 3-pt favorites). I don't see the Jaguars dropping B2B home games to end the year nor do I see the visitors winning B2B road games, something they have yet to do all season.

IUPUI has actually dropped five of its last six games, but three of those losses have come by a total of nine points including the last two both being final margins of four points or less.  It was actually a two-point win the first time they faced off w/ IPFW, on the road, as six-point underdogs.  At the time, that was part of what would turn into a four-game win streak w/ the next two games also very close.  Here at home this season, the Jaguars are 8-2 straight up while averaging 77.9 points per game. One of those losses obviously was the last game, but they never trailed by more than nine Thursday and then the game before that saw them shoot only 35.9 percent in a four point loss at North Dakota State. As a home underdog this year, the Jags are a perfect 3-0 ATS. 

Simply put, IPFW is likely to regress, not just here but moving forward as well.  At least when it comes to the betting window as the Mastodons have only failed to cover in five of their 25 lined games. But this is one of the teams that was able to cover at their expense. The last time IPFW was playing a second straight road game w/ just one day in between, they lost at North Dakota State in what turned out to be their worst game of the season to date. (I played against them there!) They scored just 46 points on 28.1 percent shooting in that one and note that on the road this season they've been outscored by roughly three points per game and favored just twice.  8* IUPUI

10* Dallas (8:35 ET):  Denver was quite kind to me Wednesday as they went to LA and upset the Clippers (as 10.5-pt underdogs!), 87-81. Strangely, they were able to do so despite not scoring 20 points in either quarter of the second half. The key to the win was the Clippers missing 33 of 46 three-point attempts. The Nuggets are still only 12-18 SU on the road this year and seem to be getting a little bit too much respect tonight for a visit to Dallas. It's highly likely that Denver will regress after such a surprising performance two night ago while the Mavs are looking to bounce back from a 116-103 loss here at home to Oklahoma City. Having won just two of eight, Mark Cuban's team needs to pick up the pace as they are only 1.5 games clear of the ninth place team in the Western Conference. Lay the points here.

The Nuggets are a team that's rarely favored. In fact, they've been asked to lay points only nine times all season, far fewer than either the Kings or even T'wolves, and are just 2-6-1 ATS in those games. But as a dog, they are a strong 29-19-1 vs. the number. Yet, I just can't help but feel the oddsmakers are giving them enough here. With almost all their wins coming in the underdog role this season, I think it's important to note that the team is just 4-14 SU/6-11-1 ATS coming off an outright upset as a dog.  They lost by 11 in Dallas back in November, which was the teams' only previous meeting this season.  This is not a team noted for its defense (103.7 PPG allowed), so I'll chalk up the last game as a little bit of luck and an aberration. 

Dallas has simply been giving up too many points of late, something they will need to fix here. They did hold Denver to just 81 points in the first meeting (on 40% shooting), which is a positive sign, and it's not like the Nuggets were 'lights out' in their upset of the Clippers either.  The Mavs were 8.5-pt favorites when they played host back in November, so this line looks to be giving us a bit of value right off the bat.  Also, consider that coming off a double digit loss, Dallas has gone 10-4 SU/ATS this year and they are also 17-9 SU/16-10 ATS after giving up 105+ points the previous game.  I don't think the Mavs should have any problems scoring here as they come in averaging 113.8 points the L5 games. 10* Dallas

10* Under Cavaliers/Raptors (7:35 ET): This is a matchup of the two top teams in the East and thus it's certainly reasonable to expect a "playoff-like" intensity for tonight's game, particularly because it takes place in Toronto where the home folk should be quite fired up. Now, the first two meetings of the year between Toronto & Cleveland both went Over the total. But those games each had significantly lower totals, particularly the last one (194.0), which took place in Cleveland. It's more than a double digit adjustment from the linesmakers here and given recent results on both sides, I suppose that shouldn't come as too big a shock. But, it's an overadjustment nonetheless and I'm calling for an Under here as defense takes precedent.

Under Tyronn Lue, the Cavs offense has certainly improved. Well, except for Monday's 'dud' performance against Detroit where they scored only 88 points in a home loss. They followed that up w/ a commanding 114-103 win over Charlotte and really it could have been a lot more lopsided had they not rested LeBron in the fourth quarter.  Over the L5 games, the Cavs are well above their YTD scoring average (by 5.5 PPG), but that should start to come down, especially here on the road where they average "just" 100.2 PPG.  Strangely, this team is better defensively on the road where they give up only 95.4 PPG. Quietly, Cleveland is still top eight in the league in terms of defensive efficiency and had held three straight opponents under 100 pts before the last game. That includes Oklahoma City, on the road, a game I had the Under (and won). 

Toronto is right behind Cleveland in defensive efficiency, ranking ninth. But over their last five games, they're allowing 103.6 PPG. That's thanks to a couple of poor efforts around the All-Star Break, but since then they've "tightened things up" and for the season they allow just 96.7 PPG here at home. The two meetings w/ Cleveland so far this season have each seen a total of 25 three-pointers made, a very high number that should come down, and the Cavs made 17 themselves the last time they played.  The Under is 16-11 in Cavaliers' road games this season and a perfect 3-0 in Raptors' home games where the O/U line is between 205 and 209.5 pts.  10* Under Cavs/Raptors

8* Manhattan (7:00 ET):  The Jaspers are off a pretty bad loss here, 61-40 (at home!) to St. Peter's as four-point favorites. Meanwhile, Iona comes in off B2B upsets, the first being a really big one (83-67 over MAAC leader Monmouth) and then Monday they won at Siena 87-81 (+1.5). Given how often I preach about the value of "selling high" and "buying low," this seems like a perfect opportunity to strike in what is a revenge spot for the home team. Manhattan did lose by 14 earlier in the year at Iona, but were 11-pt dogs in the contest and shot just 35.6% from the field after being off for eight days due to a snowstorm in the northeast. Seeing what the line was for that first matchup and comparing to what it is here, there does appear to be some good value on the home dog. This is Manhattan's final home game of the year, so they should be motivated as well. Take the points.

When these teams faced off last month (also on a Friday), Iona was on a five-game ATS losing streak and had just been upset in its previous game, 98-91 by Fairfield.  Now, the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot." Starting w/ the 70-56 victory over Manhattan, the Gaels have covered seven of their last eight games (just avenged only loss - Siena) and are just one game back of Monmouth for first place. However, despite building a 25-point lead in the first half at Siena Monday, things were not nearly as easy as Iona would have liked. They actually let the Saints back into the game and even trailed with just under four minutes remaining. While the Gaels should be commended for building the big lead, the close call shows that they probably should not be trusted laying this many points on the road.  Tonight marks the team's third straight game away from home, by the way.

Manhattan had also been hot at the betting window, but that was before they went out and shot only 26.3% from the field in Tuesday's loss at St. Peter's. That result guaranteed that the Jaspers won't be a top five seed come the MAAC Tourney. But, motivation should still be high tonight given that this is the final home game of the season. The team is a pretty solid 8-5 SU on its own floor and should bounce back offensively seeing as Iona is allowing 76.9 PPG away from home.  Taking points at home, the Jaspers are a strong 6-1 at the betting window this season. 8* Manhattan

10* Under Rockets/Blazers (10:35 ET):  Both of these teams enter in on Over streaks (Houston four straight, Portland five straight), so right off the bat you know there's going to be some value on the Under here.  Sure enough, there is as we've crossed the "magic" 220-point threshold, still a rarity this season. There have only been 14 games previously this season where the total has been 220 pts or higher. (Interestingly, there are THREE tonight).  Portland has been a REALLY hot team of late, winning 11 of 12 including six straight. Over the last five, which includes a 137-105 thrashing of the Warriors, they are averaging an astounding 118.4 points per game. Even though they are playing the defensively inept Rockets here, that number has to start coming down. Take the Under.

This is the finale of a five-game trip for Houston that began prior to the All-Star Break.  So far, the only win on the trip came in Phoenix.  With a tough 117-114 loss (OT) to the Jazz on Tuesday, the Rockets are now under .500 for the year and behind both Utah and Portland in the race for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.  Their defense has been a major liability all season, but note that last game went to overtime, so the points allowed (as well as scored) are somewhat inflated there. Consider James Harden scored 42 points in the loss to Utah, a number he'll probably fail to match here. That game would NOT have gone Over without overtime.  As a team, Houston is shooting just 42.4% its last five games.

This will actually be the third meeting this month between these two teams. Portland has obviously taken the first two, but what's interesting is that neither of those games were as high-scoring as the oddsmakers are projecting for tonight.  The first, in fact, was a 96-79 final. The last one did go Over, but barely, and would be an under here as the score ended being 116-103. The Over is 12-4 the L16 meetings, so it's time for things to start going the other way. With Portland, their starting backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum have both gone over 30 pts in B2B games. No starting backcourt has gone over 30 in three straight all year, so at least one of the duo is likely to have an 'off-night' here. The average total for a Rockets game this year is 209.5 and for the Blazers it's 204.5. So, again, you can see the value. 10* Under Rockets/Blazers

10* Phoenix (9:05 ET):  This is like choosing between the good, the bad and the ugly without the "good" part. The Suns enter this game on a 12-game losing streak and have just two wins since Christmas. Brooklyn actually has three wins in its last seven games overall, but all of them were at home.  On the road, the Nets are just 4-20 straight up, so it speaks volumes (about the Suns) that they are actually favored in this spot.  I believe (and so do my personal power ratings) that they should not be favored here. Believe it or not, but Phoenix was actually a 3.5-point favorite when these teams met in Brooklyn back in December 1st.  Now, given the Nets won that game (94-91) outright, that was obviously a bad line. But it does not mean that we once again should find the road team favored in a battle of two of the worst four teams in the league. Take the points.

Support for the Suns here is likely to be next to nil as they are coming off a horrendous 40-point loss to the Clippers. However, it's amazing how things can swing on a game by game basis in this league and one such example just took place last night w/ those Clippers losing outright (as 10.5-pt home favorites) to Denver (I nailed that one!).  Phoenix, like Brooklyn, is a dreadful road team (just 4-23 SU), but here at home things are a little more respectable. They're being outscored by only 2.2 points per game. Compare that to Brooklyn's -8.5 PPG scoring differential on the road and you begin to see why I think this line stinks.  As a home underdog, the Suns are 8-6 ATS this season. Brooklyn had yet to be in the role of favorite on the road until tonight. 

The Nets won't be back home until March 13, a stretch of nine straight road games. While they did cover Tuesday, that was because of a generous number against a red-hot Portland team (still lost by eight). Phoenix seems like it would be one of the more "desirable" destinations on this trip, but the Nets are just 4-14 SU (4-13 ATS) their last 18 visits here.  The discrepancy in shooting percentages from the Suns' last game certainly should not be as extreme here as they were on the wrong end of 55% to 35.2% against the Clippers.  Interim HC Earl Watson still has not won. He will here. 10* Phoenix

10* Western Illinois (9:00 ET):   Back on February 6th, I played against IPFW (Indiana-Purdue Ft Wayne), noting they would be unable to maintain the nation's best ATS record (17-3 at the time). Sure enough, the Mastodons got blown out at North Dakota State, 62-46, arguably their worst performance of the season. They followed that up by failing to cover in an 88-84 home win over Denver in the next game. However, they've since covered their last two (both at home), one an upset (were +3.5) over South Dakota State and then the other a narrow win (by 4, laying 3.5) over Nebraska-Omaha. So, it's probably time to go against the Mastadons yet again as they are laying points on the road, something they've only been asked to do one time previously.  Take the points.

Western Illinois comes in off a bad 87-67 loss, here at home, to South Dakota State. Of course, the Jackrabbits were likely in a foul mood after being upset by IPFW just two days prior, a result that landed the Mastadons in first place (by their lonesome) in the Summit League.  Western Illinois is at the other end of the spectrum (i.e. last place), which to some will make this short number rather curious. But you should note that IPFW has arguably been the "luckiest" team in the entire country w/ a ridiculous 13-1 SU record in games decided by six points or less. Simply put, they are due to drop one. Western Illinois may be just 6-5 SU at home, but is outscoring opponents by a healthy 8.4 PPG here as opponents are averaging only 64.7 PPG.

Not included in IPFW's string of close wins was an 88-67 home victory over Western Illinois last month. But that game saw the Mastodons shoot nearly 56% from the field, something that is highly unlikely to be repeated here. Covering by just one-half point their last time out is so indicative of this season IPFW is having (made a free throw in the final seconds to cover). I just can't see it continuing though, especially seeing as they are allowing 77.9 PPG in conference play.  It's interesting that despite a poor 9-16 SU overall record, Western Illinois has a point differential of a team that should be a lot closer to .500.  The Leathernecks (one of the best nicknames in the sport!) are just as due to pull off an upset as IPFW is due to suffer one, so take the points. 10* Western Illinois

8* Cleveland State (7:30 ET):   This is hardly the marquee matchup on Thursday's slate.  But there actually is a ton of value here on an admittedly bad Cleveland State team that is suffering through quite the miserable season. The Vikings have just eight wins all season, but one of those came at the expense of tonight's opponent (Northern Kentucky), whom they downed on the road 70-65 (as 4-pt dogs) last month.  Therefore, they certainly should be getting more credit from the oddsmakers tonight at home. But they're not due to suffering three straight blowout losses, the last two of which were on the road.  Believe it or not, but CSU actually has not won a home game in over a month.  They'll break that streak here.

I have a friend that follows the Cleveland State program closely (season-ticket holder) and early on, he alerted me to the fact it was likely to be a tough year. Remember this program has suffered two key transfers, Trey Lewis to Louisville and Anton Grady to Wichita State (in retrospect, things didn't turn out so well for either player!).  That left the cupboard rather bare for HC Gary Waters and while recent results are hardly inspiring, I think that a return home will bring a little bit of motivation. A Saturday/Monday trip through Wisconsin didn't go well, but Northern Kentucky is one the few teams in the Horizon League that CSU can actually beat. By the way, here at home they are holding opponents to just 63.9 points per game.

Northern Kentucky is a Horizon League newcomer this year and like Cleveland State, things have not gone well for the Norse. They've lost four straight and will conclude their regular season w/ two more road games after falling by three at Wright State on Saturday. It was a cover (as 8.5-pt dogs) in that last game, but the fact remains the Norse are just 2-11 SU on the road this year, allowing 79.5 PPG and getting no help from the oddsmakers here. In that first meeting with Cleveland State, they allowed the Vikings to shoot 56.3% from three-point range. As a favorite/pick 'em, Northern Kentucky is a lousy 1-4-1 ATS this year. This will be a rare win for the home team. 8* Cleveland State

8* Iowa (9:00 ET):  Interim Wisconsin head coach Greg Gard is getting a lot of praise for how he's handled a pretty tough situation in Madison (Bo Ryan stepped down mid-season) and he absolutely deserves said credit, particularly if the Badgers do get to the NCAA Tournament. The team has won eight of its last nine, the one loss coming at Michigan State, who is as hot as any team in the country right now. They'd actually previously beaten Sparty, not to mention Indiana (also at home) and Maryland (on the road) as well. But B2B non-covers seem to indicate that the market has begun to "catch up" and it will definitely be a challenge for Gard's team tonight in Iowa City where they'll find the #8 ranked team in the nation off an embarrassing loss that took place exactly one week ago.

Yes, in the Notre Dame-Wake Forest analysis, I talk about how rankings can often artificially inflate pointspreads.  But that's not the case here. Iowa has absolutely been one of the best teams in the country all season long and is at home tonight where they haven't lost in 13 tries and outscore opponents by an impressive 17 PPG margin. Coming off their second loss in the last three games, an outright one at that (were -9 at Penn State), I expect them to be very motivated here as they've had a full week to stew over what happened in State College. What happened was they allowed the Nittany Lions make 10 three-pointers. Consider that was the same team Iowa beat by 24 here in Iowa City earlier this month. There have been some troubling signs defensively of late, primarily in the two losses, but I'm confident the Hawkeyes will revert back to their season average of allowing only 66.5 PPG here at home (29.4% 3pt defense).

Wisconsin hasn't shot the ball particularly well its last three games and on the road this season offense has been a problem.  The team averages only 62.8 PPG outside of Madison on 39.1% shooting (just over 30% from 3-pt range).  Though they've surprised under Gard, the Badgers are simply not in the same class as Iowa, who likely remembers what happened in LY's two meetings. They (the Hawkeyes) lost by a combined 43 points in the two games. So revenge will be on the mind here & I expect a big win. 8* Iowa

8* Denver (10:35 ET):  The Nuggets were, and I stress "were," 8-1 ATS over a nine-game stretch entering the All-Star Break. Yet there is/was no doubt that they still rate among the worst teams in the league, therefore it's been no surprise (at least to me) to see them having come out of the Break with three consecutive defeats, both straight up and against the spread. Two of them came to Sacramento, however, and last night's 114-110 loss (at home) as 2.5-pt chalk could certainly be categorized as a bit disappointing. I've made the case for many years now that teams playing in the second game of a back to back are often undervalued, particularly when they failed to cover the previous night. That is the case here. Take the points.

Opposing Denver tonight will be the Clippers, who are now solidly a top five team in the league thanks to an incredible run w/o Blake Griffin. Somehow, the Clips have gone 20-6 w/o the services of their superstar (no, they are NOT a better team without him) and two losses since the Break have been by a total of eight points, one to Boston (in overtime) and the other to league-leading Golden State. Their last game saw them absolutely whitewash the Suns, 124-84 as 14.5-point chalk. They shot 55% from the floor compared to just 35% and the size of the blowout clearly has impacted tonight's spread. Recall that while I did cash LA in their three-point loss here at home to Golden State that they actually trailed by double digits late. It was the reserves that brought them in through the "proverbial" back door. 

Denver also rallied from a big deficit last night in the fourth quarter, only to ultimately come up short. They trailed the Kings by as many as 17, but were able to momentarily take back the lead in the fourth quarter.  Rarely will you ever read me using the term "momentum," but I look for a little bit of a carryover effect for the Nuggets from last night's rally.  Historically, the team has done quite well in this price range as they are 16-4 ATS the L20 times they've been a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points, including a perfect 5-0 this season alone! Leading scorer Danillo Gallinari should start to see his own personal shooting get better after making only 38 percent of his field goal attempts the L6 games.  8* Denver

8* Colorado (9:00 ET): #9 Arizona finds itself tied atop the Pac 12 standings (w/ Oregon) after winning six straight, the last game being a complete blowout. Sean Miller's Wildcats thrashed in-state rival Arizona State, 99-61 as 12.5-pt chalk, a full week ago. But now they have to hit the road where four of their five losses this season have occurred and end up in Boulder where host Colorado has been more than just a "tough out."  The Buffaloes are 14-1 SU on their home court this season, the lone loss coming at the hands of Utah by just two points (a game that saw them blow a 9-pt second half lead). The Buffs are going to be happy to be back at home as they've lost four straight on the road, including their last two overall.  Take the points here.

Colorado's most recent result was very different than that of Arizona's as the Buffs were blown out Saturday at UCLA, 77-53, a game where they were only five-point dogs. The two respective teams here being off very different results (opposite ends of blowouts) plays to our advantage tonight as we are now able to get a ton of value on a team that is 14-1 SU at home. How often do I preach to "sell" on good news and to "buy low" on bad news?  Consider that the CU has not been a home underdog at any other point this season and is outscoring its opponents here by 14.1 points per game. While still projected to be a NCAA Tournament team by most everyone (somewhere between an 8 to 12 seed), the Buffs' status is getting a bit precarious and another loss might have them firmly on the bubble, if they're already not there. Simply put, a win tonight would go a LONG way.

After shooting a blistering 57% from the floor against ASU, it will be difficult for Arizona to be that sharp again here, especially after a longer than usual layoff.  At the same time, we should see Colorado shoot better than the 32.3% clip we saw from the Sun Devils last Wednesday, especially because the Buffs only shot 31.1% (season-low) themselves in the loss to UCLA.  CU is due to break out offensively, in my opinion, and they are the Pac 12's second best rebounding team in terms of margin. They are also holding opponents to just 39.9 percent shooting here in Boulder.  8* Colorado

8* Wake Forest (9:00 ET):  The polls (Top 25) can have quite the influence on a given pointspread. But the bottom line is that linesmakers pay little attention to them and have their own set of rankings that are far more reliable. The reality of the matter is that when the public sees the little number next to a team and nothing next to the opponent, the assumption is the former is significantly better.  But all too often, this fallacy proves to be wrong. Now, I'm clearly not going to make the case that Wake Forest has been a better team than Notre Dame this year, but the Demon Deacons have certainly been unlucky. In terms of strength of schedule, most rating systems I've seen say that no team has faced a more difficult slate of opponents. They finally broke through with a win over the weekend, and a big one at that (albeit over lowly Boston College), so I say take the points here in what should be a close game.

It seems like a long time ago now, but the Demon Deacons do hold non-conference victories over UCLA, Indiana and LSU. They also took Xavier, at the time unbeaten, to the limit here in Winston-Salem. Unfortunately, ACC play has been far less kind to them as there have been a number of close losses (four by 5 pts or less) and they've had to play all the top teams at least once.  Taking its frustrations out on overmatched Boston College Sunday, Wake saw four players finish in double figures as they rolled to a 74-48 victory as nine-point favorites here at home. They did not fare well in the first meeting w/ Notre Dame this year, losing 85-62 (as 10-point pups) up in South Bend. But that game saw them shoot just 25% from three-point range.

Yes, Wake will again be w/o its leading scorer, Devin Thomas. But they didn't have him Sunday and other players managed to step up.  I expect the same thing to happen here.  Notre Dame could also be w/o one of their key contributors, Zach Auguste, who injured his knee in the last game. He's currently listed as questionable.  The Fighting Irish lost Saturday, 63-62 at Georgia Tech (were 3-pt favorites) and are now just 5-7 SU for the year outside of South Bend.  I mentioned earlier that Wake shot poorly from three-point range the first time these teams played. That's atypical for Notre Dame opponents, who are shooting 39% from behind the arc for the season. Using the line from last month's meeting, this one seems like a great value by comparison. The Demon Deacons are only being outscored by 3.3 PPG here at home while Notre Dame is only +0.3 PPG for the year on the road.  8* Wake Forest

10* Memphis (8:05 ET): Sure, the Grizzlies - in terms of actual vs expected wins - are technically one of the most overachieving teams in the league (point differential of a 25-win team).  They also just lost - as 7.5-pt dogs - in Toronto. But that negative point differential and corresponding low expected win total still has a lot to do with some ugly, early season results where they were on the wrong end of blowouts. Even though the Lakers are 7-1 ATS here in February, I still have them ranked at the bottom of my own personal power rankings as they're being outscored by a league worst 10.8 points per 100 possessions. Much of that negative margin has to do w/ their awful defense. I played against them Sunday in Chicago, saying that line should have been double digits and the same assertion applies here.  Lay the points. 

Though 7-1 against the spread this month, the Lakers have lost their last six games straight up. After falling in Chicago Sunday, they came back and stayed within a generous nine-point number in Milwaukee, losing "only" 108-101. By comparison, this line looks low as I don't think you can make a case that the Bucks are better than the Grizzlies.  It also must be pointed out that the Lakers ended up outscoring the Bucks 36-18 in the fourth quarter Monday, meaning that they were down 25 at the end of three.  Kobe Bryant again shot the ball poorly (what a surprise!) and only got to 15 points because he was 8 of 9 from the free throw line. Throughout the year, I've referenced the Lakers' odious defense, which now gives up 109.1 points per game on the road & is last in terms of efficiency. They've allowed over 118 PPG over their last four contests overall.

Memphis had won seven of nine before losing "North of the Border" Sunday.  They'd averaged an impressive 105.5 PPG their L14 games, most of those games coming w/ Marc Gasol (now out) in the lineup, mind you, yet I look for them to bounce back here after shooting just 3 of 20 from three-point range against the Raptors (Lakers allowing 47.4 3-pt % L4 games). The Grizz shot better than 56% against LA when they beat them here back in December, 112-96 as 9.5-pt chalk.  The team still is 2-1 w/o Gasol, scoring 109 pts in both wins. 10* Memphis

8* Under UNLV/Boise State (11:00 ET):  Both of these teams have gone Over in three straight games. UNLV's last game, a 101-92 win over in-state rival Nevada, went to overtime only after a buzzer-beating three-pointer at the end of regulation. From there, the Rebels scored an astounding 22 points in the extra five minutes, which is quite the offensive performance. That even outpaces the 79 points they scored in regulation and can likely be pinned on a deflated Wolfpack defense.  As for Boise State, they came out on the wrong end of a close decision (lost 80-78) at New Mexico six days ago (had the weekend off), which followed B2B 90+ point efforts (one of which was a loss). Despite all this recent scoring, I like the Under in this one as both offenses are due to "cool off."

That game vs. Nevada was the second time this month that UNLV has gone into OT (played a 2OT game at Fresno State). After the first, they came back and shot a season-low 29.4% in a 64-61 vs. San Jose State. So projecting a decline in shooting numbers here certainly seems wise. Also, I find it interesting that the Rebels allowed 91 points their last game despite holding the Wolfpack to just 33.3% shooting for the game. What happened is that Nevada made 29 of its 34 free throw attempts. Both teams, in fact, went to the line 34 times. That's quite a bit.  The Rebels, who shoot just 67.3% from the FT line to begin with, average only 24 attempts per game, which is the same number as Boise State. On the road this season, UNLV averages only 72.8 PPG, well below their overall season average. They are also down multiple key contributors right now, Stephen Zimmerman and Dwayne Morgan.

When these two faced off in Vegas last month, it was 87-77 Rebels. But as I just went through, UNLV scores significantly less on the road. That game also saw a 55-point second half by UNLV.  Look for Boise State to be much better defensively this time around as they give up only 66.8 PPG here at home.  In their last game, they allowed New Mexico to make 9 of 17 three-pointers as well as attempt 33 free throws.  UNLV isn't going to match that. At the same time, Boise State shot better than 50% themselves the L2 games, which probably cannot be sustained. 8* Under UNLV/Boise State

10* Under Magic/Sixers (7:05 ET): Part of me thinks that Philadelphia actually has a chance in this one. Since opening the year 21-9 ATS, Orlando is just 9-14 vs. then number and that's after actually covering seven of the last nine. But the Magic did lose their last time out, 105-102 at home to Indiana. But it's difficult to pull the trigger on Philadelphia, who has lost eight of nine w/ the one win coming at home against Brooklyn.  What I can pull the trigger on here is the Under as Sixers games have been higher scoring than usual of late. When these teams met just last month (a Philly win!), the total closed at 195.5, significantly lower than what we have here and that last meeting stayed Under the total. Take the Under here.

For the first time all season, we've seen the Sixers both score and allow 100+ points. There's been only one other time all season where they have scored 100 or more in three consecutive games. The next game, ironically, came against Orlando. While they did beat the Magic that next game, as stated before, it stayed Under - by double digits in fact. They held Orlando to 87 points on 39.3% shooting. While getting that kind of defensive effort again isn't likely, what I believe to be the real key is that over the L5 games, Philly is scoring 8.8 PPG above its overall season average while allowing 5.9 PPG more at the same time. They're due for a market correction on the lower-scoring side.

The same holds true for Orlando, who comes in averaging 104.2 PPG their L5 games. This is a team that averages only 99.7 PPG for the season and even fewer than that on the road.  Looking over the full season, this ranks as one of the highest O/U lines we've seen in any Magic game. There's been only two higher - one against Oklahoma City and one against Sacramento, the two teams that along w/ Golden State consistently see the highest totals in the entire league.  Philadelphia has averaged an incredible 43.3 percent from three-point range these last three games, a number that will almost certainly begin to dropoff and the Under is 5-2 for them this season when the O/U line is 205 to 209.5. The Under is 12-7 for Orlando if they allowed 105+ points the previous game. 10* Under Magic/Sixers

8* Under Rhode Island/Davidson (6:00 ET):  Davidson is off a very impressive performance over the weekend. They beat St. Joe's 99-93 (St. Joe's 1st road loss all season!) & no, there was no overtime. Both teams shot better than 56% from the field, which is highly irregular, and thus in my opinion we have some good value on the Under here as the likelihood of that kind of shooting from either side here is rather small. Throw in the fact that the opponent, Rhode Island, just shot 54.5% in its last game and has allowed three straight opponents to shoot 50% or better.  The Rams have now gone Over in each of their last five games, but the oddsmakers have definitely taken notice & hung the highest total for them here in any A-10 game this season.  Take the Under.

Just to show you how shooting/scoring levels can fluctuate wildly in College Hoops on a game by game basis, take note that it was only three games ago that Davidson played to a 60-59 final (lost) at George Mason.  In the two games since, both they and the opponents have been above 50% shooting.  Looking back, that hadn't previously happened at any other point in this season.  In fact, this is the first time all year they've shot better than 50% from the field in B2B games.  The scoring average here at home (83.6 PPG) is quite impressive while overall, the defensive numbers are troubling. But the Wildcats are allowing roughly seven points per game fewer at home than on the road this season.

With Rhode Island, as I'd previously mentioned, this is a high total. The Under is 13-3 the L16 times the OU line has been between 140 and 149.5 and the last game was the first and only to go Over in that situation all season. In that last game (which was at home), the result was a 77-74 win over Duquesne w/ the Rams shooting 54.5% from the floor. But their numbers taper off considerably on the road where they average just 68.8 PPG. Consider that there have been three games in the last month where the Rams failed to even reach 60 points.  With the exception of a game against bottom-feeder George Mason, URI has typically followed a good shooting effort w/ a bad one in conference play. Only twice this season have they shot better than 50% in B2B games. 8* Under Rhode Island/Davidson

10* Atlanta (8:05 ET): Bucking conventional wisdom a bit, I feel that's it time to start going against Golden State. I did so on Saturday night and while it admittedly took a miracle (13-0 late Clippers run), the result was a winning ticket nonetheless. The Warriors are just now under 60 percent ATS for the season (30-22-2) and that's after cashing at a 57.2% ATS clip in their Championship season last year. Clearly, "the cat is out the bag," with this team as they are striving to break the 95-96 Bulls single season WL record of 72-10. So there should be a ton of value in going against them moving forward, especially when laying this many points on the road (where all five of their SU losses have occurred). Take the points here. 

Atlanta is a desperate team right now, so we're going to get a home dog giving maximum effort. Following the All-Star Break, the Hawks have dropped B2B games here at home and given up a ton of points in the process.  Granted, Saturday's loss to Milwaukee came via double overtime, but neither the Bucks nor the Heat (who beat the Hawks the night prior) are considered offensive juggernauts. It took a 26-19 fourth quarter to even force extra time against Milwaukee, not a good sign, but one positive takeaway is that the Hawks missed a shocking 32 of 41 three-point attempts in that game, something that is not likely to be repeated any time soon. In my analysis Saturday, I talked about the problems that the Warriors have had defensively of late as their last five opponents are averaging 114.2 points per game.

Though Golden State is battling San Antonio for the top spot in the West (currently three games up) as well as chasing history, the sense of urgency for Atlanta here will certainly be greater.  The Hawks have fallen into sixth in a crowded Eastern Conference playoff picture. Obviously, we all knew that the team wouldn't come close to matching LY's surprising 60-win total, but the recent decline is a bit concerning.  Still, this is an unprecedented price range for them at home (this season) and it should be pointed out that they did beat the Warriors last season here.  Golden State is thin in the middle right now (why they signed the recently released Anderson Varejao) and has a losing ATS record vs. the Eastern Conference. Their average scoring differential on the road is in single digits.  10* Atlanta

8* New York (7:35 ET):  The Knicks snapped an ugly seven-game SU/ATS slide w/ a 103-95 win at Minnesota on Saturday (were +2.5 at the betting window).  Now they return home to take on Toronto, who finds themselves in a pretty tricky spot, laying points no less.  The Raptors made a brief stop back home on Sunday, beating Memphis 98-85 as 7.5-point chalk. That was predated by six-game road trek that took them all over the U.S. and now it's back "South of the Border" for yet another away game. Toronto is 0-4 ATS this season as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and is 0-2 ATS against the Knicks, having lost outright to them earlier in the year and then winning by "just" 10 (were -12) last month. Both of those games were in Toronto. Take the points here.

The Knicks falling out of contention can be traced to Carmelo Anthony being absent from the lineup. When Anthony hasn't played, the team is 0-7 straight up. When he's on the floor, they're a respectable 24-26 SU. Anthony led the way w/ 30 points & 11 rebounds in Minnesota Saturday and the Knicks wound up building a lead as large as 24 points in the second half. Him being back also helps rookie Kristaps Porzingis, who struggled when having to shoulder the offensive burden. I think that New York will be just fine offensively in this contest as remember Toronto is still without one of its better defenders, DeMarre Carroll.  Keeping opponents off the glass is something the Knicks have done well recently as opponents are averaging only 44.8 rebounds the L5 games.

Many times, I will make the case that a team playing w/o rest is undervalued, especially when on the road. But being asked to lay points, that is not the case here with Toronto.  The Raptors last two road games have seen them give up a ton of points (233 to be exact).  The defense was obviously much better last night, but that was against an opponent (Grizzlies) that was w/o perhaps its best player (Marc Gasol) and not particularly strong offensively to begin with.  The Raptors' own scoring has been up the L5 games (105.8 PPG) and should start to decrease moving forward (did last night). Look for the home dog to keep this one close throughout and possibly pull the outright upset for interim HC Kurt Rambis. 8* New York

8* Miami FL (7:00 ET):  The 'Canes are off a blowout loss on Saturday (96-71 at North Carolina), but thankfully are back in Coral Gables as they get set for yet another ACC matchup w/ a Top 10 opponent. This time, it's Virginia, who has covered four straight and won eight of its last nine straight up (only loss by 1 at Duke).  Miami has lost three straight in this conference rivalry, including 66-58 in Charlottesville last month, but due to both that result and Saturday's game we're able to get a ton of value here. The "U" was a 4.5 pt dog when they visited UVA on January 12th and given the close nature of that contest, should be favored by more here. Lay the small number.

What a difference a month or so makes. When these teams last played, Miami was the higher ranked team and Virginia was off B2B losses. Playing w/ a sense of desperation there, UVA shot 51.1 percent in the contest and held the Hurricanes to just 6 of 22 shooting from three-point range after HC Tony Bennett made some changes to his starting lineup. Since then, Bennett's Cavaliers have lost only two times, the next game (at Florida State) and the aforementioned defeat at Duke. As that illustrates, on the road, the Cavs simply aren't as strong.  They're just 4-5 SU in "true" road games, including four losses in ACC play, and are 3-6 against the spread. The team did get the weekend off after destroying NC State seven days ago, but that result and the time off have caused a needless reduction in the line, in my opinion.

In that first meeting, Virginia went 16 of 21 from the free throw line while Miami was just 10 of 17. That kind of performance is highly irregular for the 'Canes as they come into tonight ranked 12th nationally in FT percentage (75.1%) and average 10.3 more points per game at the charity stripe than their opponents this season.  So look for that discrepancy to be rectified here.  It was also Miami's lowest point total of the season to date against Virginia the first time.  Saturday happened to be their worst defensive effort of the season (trailed by as many as 38!). The bottom line here is I look for the Canes, one of the top teams in the country, to revert back to their 'usual selves,' particularly leading scorer Sheldon McClellan.  8* Miami FL

10* Chicago (8:05 ET): Something that has really caught me off-guard is the Lakers' recent improved play.  I still have them rated as the worst team in the league, mind you, but their current six-game ATS win streak is worth mentioning.  But, it's not something I see continuing after tonight.  I think it bears repeating that despite the 6-0 ATS run, I still have LA rated #30 and that's mainly because what a disaster they've been on the defensive end of the floor where they allow a ghastly 108.5 points per 100 possessions. I was shocked that they were able to stay competitive with San Antonio Friday night (scored 113 points), but I see those offensive numbers regressing and as I'm about to go through, this line is a tremendous value. Lay the points.

It wasn't all that long ago that these two teams first met.  The end result was a 114-91 Bulls victory, but what's really noteworthy there is that Chicago closed at -8.5, meaning we are now able to lay FEWER points with them at home than we would have had to on the road less than a month ago! The oddsmakers decision is especially curious when you consider the blowout nature of that first meeting (23-point margin).  Yes, I'm well aware of the fact that Chicago is currently w/o the services of Jimmy Butler, who scored 26 points and had 10 assists on January 28th.  But, just two nights ago, we saw other players step up in an impressive 116-106 win over the Raptors. Most notable was the 30 points from Doug McDermott, which likely won't be duplicated here, but still there's ample room for the rest of the team to improve. Everyone not named "McDermott" or "Rose" combined to go just 23 of 56 from the floor Friday night.  So, I look for someone else (former Laker Pau Gasol?) to step up here.

Again, the Lakers are just heinous defensively. They've somehow gotten away with allowing a total of 239 points the L2 games and still covered both times. That was due to some atypical strong offensive showings, but that won't last as we know Kobe Bryant is the worst jump shooter in the league and Chicago is holding teams to just 42.4% shooting here at the United Center. Again, the key here is the number, which is somehow less than what the Bulls were asked to lay in Los Angeles less than a month ago.  10* Chicago

10* Indiana State (4:00 ET): As I had previously projected, Wichita State's dominance over the rest of the Missouri Valley Conference has tapered off a bit w/ two outright losses in the last five games. However, they stepped out of conference on Monday and regained lost form by destroying New Mexico State, 71-41.  Then came another blowout at home, this time 99-68 over Missouri State, which was the Shockers' highest scoring game to date. So, it's no surprise that the oddsmakers are back on their bandwagon here for a visit to Terre Haute. But despite the fact they beat Indiana State by 20 earlier in the year, I'd be leery of laying this many points against what will be a desperate Sycamores team in front of a red hot crowd. Especially considering this is Wichita State's third game in seven days. Take the points.

Indiana State, meanwhile, is a team that oddsmakers have likely cooled off on. That's because of a six-game ATS losing streak that's seen them lose outright four times and then get blown out (by 28) at Illinois State earlier this week.  Still though, when you're able to get a team in almost an identical price range at home as you were on the road (ISU was +14.5 at Wichita in 1st meeting), I think you have to take advantage.  The Sycamores are a lot better here in Terre Haute where they are holding opponents under 40% shooting (39.%) and to only 63.7 points per game. We clearly have yet to see them in this kind of price range at home, in fact, just one time all season have they taken more than five points at home all season. They covered (vs. a good Valparaiso team) and are now a perfect 3-0 ATS as a home dog after outright upsets of both Northern Iowa and Evansville, games the Sycamores won by double digits.

Neither team shot well in the first meeting, but a big difference was Wichita State finishing w/ a +10 edge in free throws made as they had more makes from the charity stripe than Indiana State had attempts. That kind of edge is often prevalent when you're the home team, but the Shockers can't count on it this time around.  While Wichita State has obviously been favored in every conference game this season, Indiana State has also been favored in a majority of theirs and again, suffered five straight (ATS) losses as chalk (not normal) prior to Wednesday night's debacle in Normal. They shot a season-low 25.4 percent from the floor at Illinois State, a percentage that I guarantee will increase dramatically here while WSU will not come close to duplicating its near 60% shooting effort from its last game.  10* Indiana State

8* Under Cavs/Thunder (3:30 ET): While it's pretty obvious to anyone that's been paying even a minimal amount of attention to NBA this year that San Antonio and Golden State are the top two teams, here is a matchup of the teams that are clearly #3 and #4.  Now, Cleveland did beat OKC (by four) at home earlier this year, but I actually have the Thunder rated as the better team overall. But playing the side here doesn't interest me as it's the total that's instead "caught my eye." When these teams took the floor against one another back in December, the O/U line closed at 203 and just managed to get Over thanks to some late free throws. It's substantially higher this go around and to me that means the value resides w/ the Under.

Kevin Durant reportedly re-aggravated a foot injury in the last game, a 101-98 loss to Indiana (where the Thunder were eight-point favorites). He did finish the game and is probable to play here. However, you have to wonder if he'll be a bit limited. One area I expect OKC to improve upon is on the defensive end as they allowed the Pacers to come from behind and "steal one" w/ a 34-point fourth quarter. Overall, the Thunder are giving up 106.4 PPG their last five contests. Expect that number to start to come down here as for the season they allow just 98.8 PPG at home.  The Under is 20-11 in all Thunder home games this season & I find it highly unlikely that Cleveland will be as efficient as they were in the first meeting from three-point range (12 of 29!), even with Kyrie Irving now in the lineup.

The Cavs will likely be short-handed here as the recently acquired Channing Frye still is not ready to suit up and Iman Shumpert (top perimeter defender) is doubtful to play. However, Shumpert's absence won't be felt that much as he was unlikely to guard either Durant or Russell Westbrook, who account for the vast majority of the OKC offense.  The last five games have seen Cleveland average 109.6 PPG, which is well above their YTD average of 99.6 PPG on the road. So, they're likely due for a drop in scoring here. Underrated is the fact the Cavs are top five in points allowed league-wide & both of these teams are in the top 10 in terms of defensive efficiency. Save for a game vs. Sacramento last week, this looks like the highest total for any Cleveland game all season. In a marquee matchup, I just can't see that much scoring. 8* Under Cavs/Thunder

8* LA Clippers (8:35 ET):  I think that most will see Golden State coming off that ugly loss last night in Portland and want to automatically back them here as they're laying just a small number on the road. But that would be a mistake in my estimation. This is a rare time when my power ratings feel that the Warriors aren't undervalued as the Clippers have been a hot team (winning 20 of 25) and they just crushed the Spurs here, 105-86 on Thursday night. Given that result, plus the fact the Clips rarely are afforded the opportunity to take this many points at home, I have no choice but to back them here as they are rested and the Warriors are not, which I do think makes a big difference in such a marquee matchup. Take the points.

Golden State has now failed to cover the spread in three straight games and particularly concerning is the fact they are giving up a lot of points recently. Their last five opponents have averaged 116 points per game and while they've been fortunate enough to score 118, that's still a pretty razor thin margin. I admittedly made a mistake backing San Antonio in a similar spot last night (laying points w/o rest). It is going to be difficult moving forward for both the Warriors and Spurs to maintain the blistering pace set in the first half of the season where they outscored foes by more than 12 points per game and covered more than 60 percent of their games.  I'm well aware of the fact that Golden State hasn't dropped B2B games all season, but it's troubling that they allow more than 107 PPG on the road. Also troubling were the 13 turnovers in the third quarter last night.

  The Warriors are always going to get a team's best shot, but in particular tonight has to be a game the Clippers have had circled for some time. LA has lost five straight to their division rivals, including by seven here at home earlier this season and by four in Oakland just days before.  Both games were played all the way back in November, so a lot has changed since then, particularly with the Clippers, who have caught fire despite not having Blake Griffin.  That home loss to the Warriors earlier in the year was particularly painful because the Clips led by as many as 23 in the second half! But they know they can beat this team, whose five losses this year have all come on the road. 8* LA Clippers

10* Pepperdine (8:00 ET):  This is one matchup where I feel that the revenge angle is worth endorsing. Pepperdine, as a three-point road favorite, got beat by Santa Clara earlier this season 62-60. That game was decided on a last-second three-pointer by the Broncos' Jared Brownridge. It was not a particularly good spot for the Waves either as the game previous saw them pull a big upset of St. Mary's, as eight-point dogs.  Perhaps you recall it was just last Saturday when I went against the Waves in a similar spot (off an upset of St. Mary's) and they failed to cover laying points at Pacific. But here it's a different story as they followed that up by losing to San Francisco (outright) as 8.5-point home favorites Thursday. I'll call for a bounce back here.

I've had a good read on when to play against Pepperdine thus far. Not only did I cash a winning ticket against them last Saturday, but nine days earlier I also went against them and won, that time cashing Portland outright as a 10-point dog.  It should be noted, however, that before that loss the team had covered five in a row including a four-game SU win streak.  Things then went downhill a bit, but then they upset St. Mary's again. This team's chances of finishing in the top four in the WCC took a bit of hit with Thursday's loss to San Francisco, who pulled away late. But, of the Waves last five conference losses, three were by three points or less. So that record could conceivably be a lot better. They haven't been great at the betting window when favored so far, but this line is a bit of a bargain.

Tonight marks the dreaded second road game in three nights for Santa Clara. Somewhat surprisingly, they've fared pretty well in this situation previously. But coming off an upset of Loyola Marymount (who was missing its leading scorer/rebounder), it's difficult to imagine a second straight quality showing.  The Broncos have allowed their last two opponents to shoot over 50% for the game. Somehow, LMU only got to the free throw line a total of SIX times on Thursday! A real key here is that Pepperdine is holding visitors to just 30.2% shooting here at home for the season, including 25.8% from three-point range.  10* Pepperdine