10* San Antonio (9:05 ET):   The Clippers currently own the league's third best scoring differential (+6.9 PPG), but are only fifth in the loaded Western Conference. As I said earlier in the week, when I played against them in Utah (Jazz covered as 7-pt dogs), no team has played fewer road games.  With last night's outright loss in New Orleans, LA is now just 12-8 SU away from home.  Now, without rest, they have to head to San Antonio.  The defending champion Spurs are playing very well right now, having won seven of eight, and this will be the first time in four games that they're NOT being asked to lay double digits at the betting window. They're rested too; having not played since Wednesday's 95-86 win over Charlotte. Lay the points.

The Spurs have won both previous meetings this year w/ the Clippers, including 125-118 here in the Alamo, right before Christmas.  They shot an insane percentage (63.5%!) in that game that cannot be duplicated here.  But, that being said, the team still averages over 105 PPG here at home and the bigger story could be their defense, which is allowing just 93.3 PPG the L14 games.  The Spurs have also had the Clippers' number through the years, winning 31 of the past 34 times they've met here in San Antonio (includes playoffs), plus they are 22-5 SU the L27 matchups overall! 

The Clippers have not fared well in the second game of back to backs this season, at least at the betting window, where they've gone 3-8 against the spread.  They're also giving up an average of 102.2 PPG on the road after allowing 108 last night in New Orleans. At seven games, this is their longest road trip of the season, and this is the third game in four nights.   They actually trailed the Pelicans by as many as 14 points last night and were outrebounded 51-38 for the game.  They also missed 75% of their three-point attempts, going just 7 for 28.  This is a tough spot and even taking points, it's tough to make a case for the Clips here.  10* San Antonio

8* Philadelphia (7:35 ET):  Both of these teams, while at opposite ends of the NBA spectrum, won last night.  For Philadelphia, I felt it was perhaps the one game all year in which they should have been favored, hosting Minnesota, and they delivered a 103-94 home victory (as four-point dogs).  As horrible as this team looked over the course of the first two months of the season, they now have 10 wins and six of those have come in January.  Tonight sees them going for their first three-game win streak of the year, and while that's unlikely to happen, the Sixers are catching a huge number against an Atlanta team that was somewhat fortunate to extend its winning streak to 18 games last night.  Take the points.

Atlanta, the Eastern Conference leaders at 39-8 straight up, covered the spread in each of the first 15 games during the current win streak.  But then they failed twice in a row, laying double-digits, to Minnesota and Brooklyn here at home.  Last night, facing what we all knew would be a stiffer test from Portland, the Hawks trailed by five points entering the fourth quarter.  But they scored 36 points over the final 12 minutes to pull off the victory.  The team now owns the best record in the entire league.   But might they be "peaking" too early? And at what point do they hit a tipping point?  For some, they would not have covered last night, making it three straight ATS losses.  Their 1-2 ATS this season as a favorite of more than 12.5 points and this is likely to be the most points they'll lay in any game all season.

Philadelphia has dropped the first two meetings w/ Atlanta this year by an average of 17 PPG, so this spread is probably just about right.  The losses have been by 16 and 18 points and were pretty similar.  They actually came into the last meeting, back on January 13th, off B2B wins as well.  The one difference though is that those two wins had both come by three points or less.  They've since won three times by nine or more points, something they had not done even one time previously. Right now, the Hawks' depth is being tested w/ DeMarre Carroll (a starter) and Thabo Sefolosha both injured and another frontcourt player, Shelvin Mack, has missed six straight games as well.  All-Star PG Jeff Teague has shot poorly (38.5 percent) the L7 games.  8* Philadelphia

10* Georgetown (2:00 ET):  The Hoyas are off a bad showing against Xavier earlier in the week that knocked them out of first place in the Big East.  They got off to a terrible start in the eventual 66-53 loss (were four-point favorites), going w/out a made field goal for an 11-minute stretch and finishing w/ a season-low 16 pts in the first half.  With a 3-1 record in overtime games this season, there has certainly been some good fortune come Gtown's way, but also remember this is a team that defeated Villanova by 20 points just 12 days ago, which was no accident. I'll call for John Thompson III's team to bounce back here against a Creighton squad that just won for the first time in 10 games Wednesday. Lay the points.

It really was an irregular game for the Hoyas on Tuesday against Xavier.  They committed a season-high 17 turnovers, 13 of them coming in that disastrous first half. They also shot only 13 of 24 from the free throw line after going 28 of 32 in a road win over Marquette the game previous.  They were also outrebounded, 36-28, after finishing w/ a +5.3 per game edge on the boards its previous five contests.  Note that the Hoyas have bounced back from their two previous Big East losses w/ a win and cover.  One of those came against this Creighton team back on January 3rd.  Eerily similar is that they were coming off a loss to Xavier and they responded by beating the Blue Jays 76-61 as eight-point favorites.  

With the graduation of Doug McDermott (coach's son), we all figured Creighton would take a big step back this year and they have.   Wednesday marked their first Big East win of the season, snapping a nine-game losing streak, which was tied for the longest such skid in the 99-year history of the program.  The win, which came by just three points here in Omaha over slumping St. John's, probably doesn't mean much in the big picture.  In these teams' first meeting, Georgetown played one of its best games of the season, shooting a season-best 58.7 percent from the field, including 8 of 19 on three-point attempts.  While maybe they don't match those lofty percentages here, it is notable that Creighton has allowed its last two opponents to shoot 50 percent (22 of 44) from behind the arc.  10* Georgetown

8* Iowa State (2:00 ET):  At the start of January, TCU was one of the last remaining unbeatens in the entire country. What a difference a month makes, huh?  The Horned Frogs have dropped six of seven in Big 12 play, many of them admittedly close, and now have to face another conference heavweight on the road Saturday.  It's very likely that eight of the 10 teams in the Big 12 make the NCAA Tournament.  At the forefront is #15 Iowa State, who took a terrible beat in their win over Texas Monday.  The final score says the Cyclones won by only three, but they led by as many as 21 in the second half, before an improbable offensive display from Texas took place.  That means anyone who laid the five points w/ ISU was left scratching their head, but here I'm more confident in their ability to close, even laying a bigger number. 

For the first 28 minutes of the game Monday, Fred Hoiberg's team looked as good as they have all season.  That's really saying something when you consider the Cyclones have also beaten Kansas and won at West Virginia.  A key here will be getting out in transition. Iowa State is third in the nation in transition points, averaging 22 points per game.  At home, that should not be an issue. This is a team that's won its last 18 games in Ames and 42 straight here over unranked foes.  This season, they've averaged 84.0 PPG at Hilton Coliseum, winning by an average of of 16.5 PPG.  Against the Longhorns, they shot 54.7% from the field and keep in mind that's with a pretty notable size disadvantage.  They got to the free throw line with great frequency in what was their fourth win over ranked opponent this season. This team also leads the nation in assists per game.

A big reason for TCU's decline can simply be explained by the step up in competition.  They played a pretty weak non-conference schedule overall.  They are averaging 22 less points per 100 possessions in conference play compared to non-conference games. Poor free throw shooting hasn't helped either.  As a team, they shoot just 60.9 percent from the charity stripe, one of the worst marks in the entire country.  Last year, the Horned Frogs were swept by ISU despite leading scorer Kyan Anderson averaging 22.5 PPG. Both losses were by double digits.  8* Iowa State

8* Pittsburgh (12:00 ET):  Wednesday saw Notre Dame catch Duke in a bad spot (for the Blue Devils, that is), as they were coming Coach K's 1,000th career victory and had a showdown w/ unbeaten Virginia on deck.  Coming from behind late, the Irish won 77-73 as 1.5-point dogs.  But now, off that "upset" win on TV, it's they who are primed to be in letdown mode.  Meanwhile, Pitt is off the opposite kind of result - that being a 70-67 overtime loss at Virginia Tech (were 3.5 pt favorites) that was decided in the final seconds.  The loss was their third straight, but only one not to a top 10 team, and also dropped the Panthers to a poor 1-7 ATS their last eight.  I feel that in this early Saturday start, we're going to see a little "regression to the mean." Take the points.

Notre Dame has won a number of close games this year. Just recently, as in during this month, they've beaten North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Miami, NC State and Duke all by five points or less. That's all but one of their last six victories and doesn't even include a seven-point win at home over Georgia Tech at the start of the month.  Only one of their four ACC games to date has been decided by a margin greater than three points.  Keep in mind that against Duke, the Irish trailed by 10 points w/ just 10 minutes to go.  They failed to cover their lone chances as a road fave of 3.5 to 6 pts this season, beating Ga Tech by only three.

Not only is Pitt just 1-7 ATS its last eight games, but going back even further they are 1-10 ATS L11 lined games overall.  While only 1-5 ATS as a dog this season, Jamie Dixon's team is a strong 9-2 straight up at home, holding opponents to just 60.1 points per game.  Opponents are shooting a really high percentage from three-point range against them of late, a rate that I do not believe can be sustained.  So much of handicapping college basketball comes down to the situation, and while it worked in Notre Dame's favor Wednesday, it does not today.  8* Pittsburgh

8* Seton Hall (12:00 ET):  The Big East is a real crapshoot right now.  Of all teams, it is Providence that comes in w/ the conference lead, but seven teams are within two games of the Friars.  Two of them play here.  If you're looking for more evidence of the "upside-down" nature of this league, consider that BOTH Xavier & Seton Hall are coming off SU dog wins, the former at Georgetown and the latter at Marquette.   The Musketeers had previously failed to cover five in a row and also have an outright loss to Depaul on their resume.  As for the Pirates, they too have lost to the Blue Demons, but also own a win over Villanova. In addition to the homecourt, I think the deciding factor here is revenge, as Seton Hall has it from a 69-58 loss back on January 7th.

Xavier's win at Georgetown Tuesday was impressive.  However, it was also just their third away from home all season.  They're 3-7 SU in road/neutral site games as opposed to a perfect 11-0 SU at home.  Considering they've now swept the season series from the 21st ranked Hoyas, the Musketeers probably deserve to be in the Top 25 as well, and if they were to win here would likely replace G'town in the poll.  The only thing, however, is that they got a great deal of help Tuesday from the Hoyas, who went scoreless for an 11-minute stretch in the first half and also missed 11 of 24 free throw attempts.  While it's the smallest of numbers, I find it odd that Xavier now finds itself in the favored role considerint the poor overall road record.  They have lost outright both previous times they were road chalk (Depaul, Auburn).

In the first meeting this year between these teams, Seton Hall actually came in as the ranked team, but was the 7.5-point underdog on the road.  They didn't shoot well at all, just 41.1 percent for the game in fact, and the 58 points scored matched a season-low (at the time).  They've since scored only 57 in a loss to Butler, but as mentioned earlier, bounced back Wednesday at Marquette w/ an upset win where leading scorer Sterling Gibbs led the way w/ 24 pts.  Gibbs missed every shot he took in the 2nd half in the first meeting w/ Xavier, something I don't see repeating itself here, and even better is that the Pirates' second leading scorer (Isaiah Whitehead) appears as if he's ready to return after missing the last month of action.  8* Seton Hall

8* Buffalo (10:00 ET):   It's pretty telling about the state of the MAC when the conference's top team is a dog of this size on the road against a middle of the road team.   Kent State has won six in a row, covering the spread in each of the last five, but I see the streak coming to an end tonight in this late night start in Buffalo.  The Bulls did just beat another of the league's better teams, that being Western Michigan, Tuesday night here at home by a score of 77-71.  They also swept Kent State last year.  Lay the points.

Buffalo is led by the unheralded Justin Moss, a player that deserves more recognition nationally after going for 23 points and 10 rebounds in the team's win over Western Michigan.  The Bulls won that game despite missing 19 of 21 three-point attempts, something I don't see repeating itself here night.  The win over WMU improved Buffalo to a perfect 7-0 SU this season at home where they are averaging 80.7 points per game.  That's another reason you shouldn't be surprised to find Kent State as the underdog here.  The Bulls have won all by one of the ten games in which they've been favored this season.  This is a team that played both Kentucky and Wisconsin earlier in the year and was even competitive in Madison. 

As for Kent State, they're averaging just 63.4 PPG on the road despite a 6-2 record there (includes 2-1 in neutral site games).  As alluded to earlier, the MAC is not a deep conference, and the Golden Flashes have largely been able to take advantage of playing a number of "bottom rung" teams to this point.  The one exception would be a 63-53 home win over Central Michigan earlier this week.  A 17-0 second half run was the key there as the Chippewas, who came in averaging 83.9 PPG, shot just 33.9 percent for the game. Here, I look for Buffalo to hand Kent just its second MAC loss of the season. 8* Buffalo

10* Miami (8:00 ET):  Even playing w/out Dwyane Wade, I believe the Heat can stick w/ the Mavericks tonight.  Dallas is mired in its longest losing streak of the season (four straight), thus laying a hefty number on the road right now isn't a very good idea, even if they are 4-0 ATS this season as a road fave of -6.5 to -9 points. The Mavs have also gone 0-4 ATS during the losing streak, most recently falling at Houston Weds night, by a score of 99-94 as 2.5-point pups.  After leading the league in scoring for much of the year, the Mavs have failed to top 100 pts in four of their last five games.  Miami is a perfect 5-0 SU vs. Dallas the L3 seasons, including a 105-96 road win earlier this season, as eight-point dogs. Take the points. 

The Heat are off an outright loss on Tuesday, as 2.5-point home favorites, to Milwaukee.  The 109 pts allowed in that game were the most since December 3rd.  While offense has been an issue for Coach Spo's team, defensively they rank 2nd in the entire league at just 96.4 PPG allowed.  Prior to playing the Bucks, they'd allowed just 87.8 PPG on 40.2 percent shooting over a 10-game span that had seen them go 6-4 straight up.  Something else that perplexes me is Miami's 8-14 SU record at home. I'm not saying they'll win outright here, but aren't they "due" to start winning a little bit more on South Beach? 

Rajon Rondo was thought to be the final piece of the puzzle for Dallas, but he's averaging just 6.8 PPG since January 4th and was held scoreless in Wednesday night's loss.  The team's win percentage with him is .579 as opposed to .679 before making the trade.  Not only are they averaging seven points per game less w/ Rondo, but they are also averaging a fewer number of assists!  Part of the issue is Rondo is shooting an absolutely unforgiveable 30.9 percent from the free throw line this season.  What a joke!   In case you were wondering, that would be the worst FT shooting percentage in league history by a guard w/ at least 50 attempts.   Look for the Heat to keep this one closer than expected.  10* Miami

10* Monmouth (8:00 ET):  Despite only being 11-10 SU overall, Monmouth is just a game out of first place in the MAAC w/ a 7-3 conference record.  First place Iona doesn't play until tomorrow, but the Hawks can at least move into a tie w/ Rider (who won last night) for second place w/ a win tonight.  Already 8-2 ATS on the road this season, despite a loss at Manattan their last time out, Monmouth visits Fairfield tonight.  The Stags are not having a good season as they come in having lost three straight and 9 of their last 11.  While this is a rare visit to campus by the ESPNU cameras, that motivation won't be enough to overcome what is simply the better team.  Lay the points.

Fairfield's season perhaps hit its nadir Sunday when they lost at Marist, a team that had previously not won a single MAAC game this year.  Despite holding the Red Foxes to just 35.7% shooting for the game, it was enough as they (Marist) got to the free throw line 44 times and wound up scoring 48 points after halftime.  Marist was one of the two teams that Fairfield had beaten over the last month and represents their lone home victory dating all the way back to the conference opener on December 5th.  The Stags are just 3-7 SU (2-7 ATS) on their home floor this year, scoring a meager 59.3 points per game. In case you couldn't pick up on it, what I'm trying to say here is that this is not a very good team.

As for Monmouth, they've already beaten Fairfield once this season, 77-70 at home, 12 days ago.  Unfortunately, they just missed out on the cover as they were laying 7.5 points at the betting window.  The Hawks did have to rally back from a small halftime deficit, but again it was a Fairfield opponent getting to the FT line at an incredible prodigious rate (40 times).  That helped alleviate the fact Monmouth missed 11 of 12 three-point attempts, which is something they should be better at here.  Fairfield is 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS vs. teams with winning records this season and I don't see things getting any better tonight.  10* Monmouth

8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET):   Toronto has yet to drop a division game this year. They're 8-0 vs. the rest of the Atlantic, which you have to remember is a really awful division.  If the Nets fail to make the playoffs this year (very possible!), then it's likely the Raptors will be the lone rep from the division still playing at that time.  But for tonight, I believe the Atlantic leaders to be laying too many points on the road.  I realize that January hasn't gone well at all for Brooklyn, who has lost 11 of 13.   But they did just hang tough w/ a good Atlanta team on the road Weds night and thus I see them staying within this generous number tonight.  Take the points.

The Raptors are the Eastern Conference's highest scoring team on the road, at 106.0 points per game, but they do have their issues defensively on the road.  "South of the border," they allow a pretty frightening 104.5 PPG.  Now, Brooklyn's offense isn't exactly setting the world on fire this year.  They come in averaging just 95.1 PPG.  Their defense hasn't been much better of late either.  But, for the season, the Nets allow just 98.3 PPG at home and they did just top 100 pts offensively against the Hawks.  

This is the first of back to back games for Toronto, who will visit Washington tomorrow night.  That game is more likely to have their attention that this one, so there is the lookahead factor.  It's also the Raptors' third game in four nights.  With a scheduled game vs. Portland cancelled earlier this week because of the poor weather in the Northeast, Brooklyn has played only the one game since Saturday.  So they should be well-rested and ready to go as they look to snap a three-game losing streak.  This is a lot of points for a home team to be taking.  8* Brooklyn

10* UCLA (10:00 ET):  I played against the Bruins on Saturday, noting the string of embarrassing performances that have been put forth by this once proud program. Things certainly don't look any better after they were blown out 82-64 at Oregon (closed as only 2.5 point dogs!), so why the switch in direction, especially for a matchup w/ Final Four contender Utah?  Well, for starters, this game takes place in Pauley Pavillion.  Utah has had to play only two Pac 12 road games to this point, losing one of them to Arizona.  All three of the Utes' losses this year have come away from home (including neutral sites) and it's pretty shocking that a team could have only played four "true" road games at this point in the season. Take the points.

Now UCLA hasn't done much when getting points this year, going 1-8 ATS as a dog.  Meanwhile, Utah is 10-3 ATS as a favorite.   But those things have a way of evening out over the course of a season and the home team getting this many points to work with is one such way that occurs.  Also, this is a massive revenge spot for the Bruins as one of their most embarrassing defeats of the year came at the hands of the Utes, in Salt Lake City, 71-39 earlier this month.  That's not a typo.  UCLA shot just 28.8% for the game and made only one three-pointer.  Leading scorer Bryce Alford (coach's son) missed all 10 shots he took. Consider that at home, they are 9-1 SU and averaging an impressive 83.9 points per game.

Utah's issue on the road has been a lack of scoring as they average just 60 PPG.  They have not won here at Pauley Pavillion in 53 years.  Since joining the Pac 12, they've lost here by margins of 14 and 27 points.  Those obviously came against better UCLA teams, but I don't see any way possible that the Bruins can be worse than they were in this season's first matchup.  10* UCLA

8* Orlando (7:05 ET):  Milwaukee has been one of the best teams at the betting window all season, going 30-14-1 ATS overall, a record topped only by Atlanta to this point.  It includes a 19-6 road record, and surprisingly a 10-5 mark when favored (4-0 as road chalk!). But as a result, the asking price has gone up as this will be the first time all season that they will have had to lay more than 3.5 points in any away game, save for two, one w/ the horrible Knicks and the other against Philadelphia.  Granted, Orlando isn't much better than those two, but they did beat Milwaukee earlier this year, on this floor.  Quite simply, the Buck stops here! 

One key thing to note when handicapping this game is that Milwaukee has not won here in Orlando in over 10 years.  That certainly makes it sound as if they're "due," especially considering the different states of the two teams currently, but as I just said, it was Orlando coming out on top earlier this year.   It was a 101-85 win for the Magic back on November 14th, and interestingly they were the favorite for that game. It was the Bucks' 17th straight loss here in Orlando, a streak that goes all the way back to 2004.  Now, Milwaukee has gone 2-0 ATS in the first two games of this three-game road trip, covering in San Antonio and winning outright over Miami, but both times they were underdogs.  The last time this team was favored was exactly one week ago, and I played against them, getting an outright win w/ a pretty subpar Utah team.

As for the Magic, they did at least earn the cover Monday night in Memphis (as 12-pt dogs).  Overall though, the team has lost six straight and 12 of its last 14.  That's hardly an encouraging sign, but they are 14-7 ATS this year vs. teams w/ winning records, thanks in large part to inflated spreads.  That's what I see here as the Bucks are due to come back down to Earth after Tuesday's hot shooting performance (54.9% overall) that included 44 bench points.  I don't see a repeat of that taking place here.  8* Orlando

10* Under Bucks/Magic (7:05 ET):  To say these two teams had been experiencing different results when it comes to totals recently would be putting it mildly.  Milwaukee had stayed Under in 12 straight games at one point, before going Over in three of the last four. As for Orlando, they'd gone Over in eight consecutive contests before Monday night's Under in Memphis.  I was on the Under in that game, a 103-94 loss for them, and somewhat beneficial was the fact that the Grizzlies got up big early and thus only scored 36 points in the entire second half.  But the Magic also remain one of the lowest scoring teams in the league (95.7 PPG) and facing a team that's seen the Under cash w/ great regularity of late, I see the Under cashing here as well. 

Because of their recent results, we're still getting high totals with the Magic.  For Milwaukee, this is a very high total.  The O/U for their last game w/ Miami was just 187 points and that was only after being bet up some. In fact, the Bucks' last seven games have all featured sub-200 point totals.  You'd have to go all the way back to a January 9th game w/ Minnesota, when the closing number was 203.5, and that game stayed way Under as the final was a 98-84 score in their favor. The team is a perfect 6-0 Under the last six times the total has been 200+ for one of their games. It's hard to imagine the hot shooting from Tuesday's win in Miami (54.9% incl 9 of 16 from three-point range) can carry over here.  They got 44 bench points in that game, an unusually high number for them.  Also, the team is now 11-4 Under this season when favored.

When these teams met earlier this year, on this floor, the total was only 194 points and the game still stayed Under in what ended up being a 101-85 win for the Magic.  Milwaukee missed 17 of 19 three-point attempts in that game, and while they're unlikely to be that bad again tonight, Orlando probably isn't duplicating it's three-point shooting (10 of 24) from that last meeting either.  The Magic have gone Over totals higher than this one recently, but those games were w/ opponents that were capable of scoring more than the Bucks' average of 98.5 PPG (20th overall).  10* Under Bucks/Magic

8* Phoenix (10:35 ET):  The fact that the Wizards are playing in the second night of back to backs and have a banged up leading scorer has me willing to lay the points here with Phoenix.  It's a number that's being bet up as we speak, so I recommend getting down quickly.  Last night saw Washington prevail 98-92 in LA (against the Lakers), but they did not cover as 8.5-point favorites. That dropped them to 0-4 ATS L4 overall and with this being the finale of a four-game, five-day West Coast swing, it's difficult to imagine them "staying in the money."  

Phoenix has also failed to cover its last three games.  The difference is that all of theirs have been at home.  This is their seventh of what will be eight straight played at home, so situationally things could not be better for them tonight against the road-weary Wizards.  The homestand started well enough w/ the Suns winning four straight, but they have lost the last two, to Houston and the Clippers, both of whom are obviously very tough opponents.  Washington, from the weaker conference, is not in that same class.  Case in point, while the Wiz are second in the East and Phoenix eighth in the West, they have roughly the same YTD point differentials. 

Washington actually trailed the Lakers by as many as 19 points last night.  John Wall had a monster game, finishing w/ 21 pts, nine rebounds and 13 assists.  But already dealing w/ an Achilles injury, he injured his ankle stepping on a cameraman.  I would not be surprised to see Wall given the night off here.   But even if does suit up, this is a tired team.  Phoenix won outright in D.C earlier this year, 104-92, and despite the sizable swing in the pointspread from that game, I feel they are a great situational play this evening.  Don't forget this is a national TV game as well, so with the Suns off B2B losses, they'll be highly motivated.  8* Phoenix

8* Utah (9:05 ET):  The Jazz followed up their biggest (in terms of margin) victory of the year (108-73 Sat vs. Brooklyn) w/ an outright loss here at home Monday to Boston, 99-90.  After being favored in each of those last two games, they're now back in their customary role of underdog against a Clippers team that needed a furious fourth quarter rally to overcome Denver at home its last time out.  Something else to consider in regards to Los Angeles is that they've played the fewest number of road games in the league to this point (just 18).  Thus, I don't see them as a great bet laying this many points tonight in what will be the first of eight consecutive road contests.  Take the points here.

This will be the fourth time already that these two teams have played this year.  The Clippers have won all three previous meetings, but two of those were decided by six points or less.  Ironically, the one that wasn't was the one here in Salt Lake City.  Incredibly, the Clips have beaten the Jazz 12 straight times.  But I come back to the fact they are only 11-7 SU on the road this year and the fact they allow 102.7 points per game makes it difficult to cover the spread when it is as large as it is here.  They're just 4-8 ATS the L12 times they have been a road favorite in the 6.5 to 9 point range, including 1-1 this year.   The only other two teams to be favored in Utah over the last month are Golden State and Atlanta.   It's just too many points.  8* Utah

10* Over Celtics/T'wolves (8:05 ET):   Both teams here are 4-1 Under their last five games, respectively.  I find that odd considering the lack of defense we're accustomed to seeing from each side.  Boston allows 103.6 points per game, but has been better than that in three of its last four, including in a 99-90 win at Utah Monday night.  Minnesota gives up the most points per game in the entire league (107.2), but they too have been better than that recently. I had them Under in their last game, a 92-84 loss at Oklahoma City, but the result here is a much lower total than usual, for both teams.  I think this one flies Over the number.

The Celtics also averages 101.9 PPG, which is in the top five among Eastern Conference teams and top 10 in the league.  They got to 99 points Monday night despite two very low scoring quarters (17 and 16 pts).  All 10 players that got into the game scored and it helped they were 21 of 23 from the free throw line.  Marcus Smart also returned following a death in his family.  Given the kind of scores we've seen from this team all year long, I'd say this total is too low. 

The same holds true for Minnesota, who admittedly is averaging only 84.6 PPG its last five on 39.4 percent shooting.  They are off their worst shooting night of the season Monday in OKC, where they made only 34.1% from the floor.  You have to figure they will improve on that here.  Also, let's look back to the first time these teams played this year, in Boston.  The Celtics won 114-98 and the game had a total of 212.5.  Tonight's total is significantly lower, creating a ton of value and while the Celtics are unlikely to duplicate their 56.5% shooting from that first matchup, you still have two bad defensive teams facing off that are due for an Over.  10* Over Celtics/T'wolves

10* Notre Dame (7:30 ET):  Not only is Duke facing a fellow Top 10 team on the road here, but they are doing so just days before a huge showdown w/ unbeaten Virginia.  While Notre Dame certainly is deserving of the Blue Devils' full attention, you have to admit it's probably going to be tough for Coach K's team to not look ahead to Saturday.  That's not all that's working against Duke, however, in what will be the second of three consecutive road games this week.  On Sunday, they needed a furious late rally to win at St. John's, giving Coach K his coveted 1,000th career victory.  Just a brutal spot here for the Blue Devils against a team that has only lost twice all season and is an underdog at home.

Notre Dame is off a close call themselves where they beat NC State on the road, 81-78 in overtime.  They too had to rally as they trailed the Wolfpack by 12 at the half and by as many as 18.  A big reason for that early deficit was uncharacteristically poor three-point shooting. The Irish lead the ACC at 40.5% from behind the arc, but missed 11 of their first 12 from that range.  They would go on to shoot 8 of 17 from distance in the second half and overtime.  Also note that game was on the road.  Here in South Bend, the team is 13-1 SU this year and 43-9 SU its last 52.  Expect a fever pitch tonight at Purcell Pavilion as this is the first time since '03 that both Notre Dame and the visitor are ranked in the top 10.  The Irish have won five of their last six here at home vs. Top 10 teams, including a 79-77 win over Duke last season.

By the way, Notre Dame's scoring differential here in South Bend is +22.6 per game.  Duke, like the Irish, had to rally from a double digit deficit Sunday.  They were quite fortunate in that St. John's went ice cold in the second half.  After making 56.3% of their shots outside the paint in the 1st half, the Red Storm missed on 11 of 12 such attempts in the 2H.  The other big difference was the decline in points in transition from half to half.  The Johnnie's scored 16 pts in transition before halftime, but only two after. I keep coming back to the letdown/lookahead nature of this game for the Blue Devils while for Notre Dame, this may be their biggest game all season. 10* Notre Dame

8* Duquesne (7:00 ET):  Unlike yday's play in the Atlantic 10, when we focused on two teams at the top of the standings (VCU & George Washington), today we're looking at a pair of teams closer to the bottom of the league. Duquesne has just one conference win all year, that coming back on January 7th at home against St. Joe's.  Only lowly Fordham (who should not even be in the A-10!) is keeping the Dukes out of the league basement.  Here, they'll be taking on a Richmond team that's dropped five of eight, many of them close, including a 63-60 setback at Dayton over the weekend. The Spiders are 3-3 in league play so far and despite the drop in class tonight are laying too big of a number for my tastes.  Take the points.

While they've been experiencing mixed results on the floor, at the betting window Richmond has been cashing in w/ great frequency of late. They're 5-0 ATS last 5, but it should be pointed out that prior to this streak they had failed to cover six in a row.  While the Spiders have been a much better team at home all season and swept Duquesne last year (17-1 SU L18 head-to-head), there are some clear warning signs about laying this many points. For starters, Richmond is averaging just 64.2 points per game.  As a result, they're 0-2 ATS laying 12.5 or more points this season and 2-6 ATS in that role the L3 yrs.  Laying any points at all, the Spiders are just 3-7 ATS in 2014-15.  They're also 4-16 ATS after scoring 60 pts or less the previous game. Against Dayton, they trailed by 10 at halftime.

Though Duquesne has lost five in a row, they've been close in a number of those losses.  Saturday's loss at George Washington was the only one that came by a double digit margin.  Three of the four prior to that came by six points or less, one of them in overtime.  The Dukes average more PPG than do the Spiders (71.7 to 64.2) and assuming they don't have a disastrous half like the one they did vs. GW (fell behind 40-18), they'll absolutely be able to keep this one close throughout.  Three-point shooting will be key also, as Duquesne is better from behind the arc, thanks to Derrick Colter and Micah Mason.  8* Duquesne

8* Oakland (7:00 ET):  I told you about the Golden Grizzlies' exploits on Monday and sure enough they went out and pulled a minor "upset" of Cleveland State, winning 59-56 at home.  It was their fourth win in a row overall and I'll again remind you this is a squad that has beaten the other two top Horizon League teams (Valpo, Green Bay) on this floor as well.  Speaking of upsets, Wright State pulled one over on me Monday, taking out Detroit on the road, 64-53 as 6.5-point dogs.  It was no fluke either as the Raiders led pretty comfortably the whole way.  That win snapped a three-game skid, but I don't see things going well for long as this will be their third straight road game (over an eight-day span) and second in three nights. 

Over its last nine lined games, Oakland is now 8-1 against the spread.  While Wright State has been on the road a lot of late, this will be the Golden Grizzlies' fifth consecutive home game.  They'll try and wrap up an unbeaten homestand and given their 8-3 SU record here, you have to like their chances.  What I thought was most impressive about the win over Cleveland State is that Oakland shot only 39.5% from the field and it didn't hurt them.  A big time edge in free throw attempts helped to alleviate that, but it should also be pointed out they led by 11 going into halftime. With the team averaging 75.4 PPG at home this year, I expect a bounce back performance on the offensive end tonight.

Two of Wright State's three Horizon League wins have come at the expense of Detroit.  The other was over last place Youngstown State.  They've been blown out twice on the road in conference play, once by Green Bay (lost by 24) and then by Milwaukee (by 26).   This marks a triple revenge spot for the home team as Oakland lost all three times it faced the Raiders last season, including by one here at home.  Also remember that Wright State is still without its leading scorer, J.T. Yoho.   8* Oakland