9* Iowa State (9:59 ET): Everyone seems to really love Miami in this unlikely Sweet 16 matchup, which pits the 10 and 11 seeds of the Midwest Region against one another. I’m not sure why? The gap in defensive efficiency, a very important metric this time of year, is the largest of any Sweet 16 matchup. Iowa State ranks fifth in the country in that regard while Miami is 124th, easily the worst of any of the remaining teams and it’s not particularly close. (Purdue is next lowest at 87th). I actually think that the WRONG TEAM IS FAVORED in this contest and thus I’m grabbing the points. 

Here’s something noteworthy. Iowa State has not lost a single non-conference game all season! The Cyclones are 15-0 when faced with a team outside the Big 12. I’ve been somewhat skeptical as my power rankings see a team that went 2-22 SU (0-18 in Big 12 play!) last year. But ISU certainly proved me wrong with their win over Wisconsin in Round 2. The bottom line is that the ‘Clones have allowed just 103 points in two games in this tournament with opponents hitting just 6 of 41 (14.6%!) from three-point range. You could argue that’s not sustainable, but so far Miami is just 4 of 29 (13.7%!) from three-point range in the tournament. 

So look for Iowa State’s defense to win out here. At the same time, I expect their offensive numbers to improve against a Miami team that is suspect defensively. The Hurricanes were fortunate to get out to a double digit lead in the 1H vs. USC in Round 1 as they held on for a two-point win. Then, they shockingly exploded in the 2H against Auburn in Round 2. Auburn shot very poorly in that game (just 30%) and while Iowa State certainly isn’t going to go for 80 points here, they will shoot better than Auburn did. I am just a big “seller” on this Miami team, who I think is the weakest team (besides St. Peter’s) left in the field. 9* Iowa State

10* UCLA (9:39 ET): Coming off an impressive upset of top-seeded Baylor in Round 2, North Carolina now seems to be accumulating quite the bandwagon as they head to the Sweet 16. But it’s hard for me to shake the fact that this Tar Heels team ended up as the three seed in a weak ACC this year. They were beaten by Virginia Tech in the Conference Tournament, then blew all of a 25-point lead (in 10 minutes!) against Baylor, needing OT to pull that upset off. The hot shooting we’ve seen from UNC these first two rounds is NOT likely to persist and I certainly don’t believe UCLA is going to shoot as poorly as Baylor did on Saturday. 

Meanwhile, UCLA quietly turned in a dominant effort in Round 2, ousting St. Mary’s 72-56. That followed a somewhat “sleepy” effort against Akron in the first round (where the Bruins won by just four points). But they have held B2B opponents below 60 points. I look at this East Region and see a pretty clear path to the Final Four for UCLA, who is one of just four teams left that ranks in the Top 25 in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency. Why is that important? Because all but one of the last 20 National Champions (2014 UConn) have been Top 25 teams in both categories. I think the Bruins are being drastically undervalued for this Sweet 16 matchup. 

Now Jaime Jaquez Jr, who is UCLA’s leading rebounder and second leading scorer, is questionable due to an ankle injury suffered last game. And North Carolina’s near choke-job vs. Baylor certainly coincided with the ejection of Brady Manek, who WILL play Friday. But I am steadfast in my assessment of the two teams. UCLA has been better all season and should be favored by more. Don’t be surprised if it’s the defense that gets it done here for the Bruins, who are 7-1 ATS their L8 NCAA Tournament games. 10* UCLA

8* Under North Carolina/UCLA (9:39 ET): UCLA quietly turned in a dominant effort in Round 2, ousting St. Mary’s 72-56. That followed a somewhat “sleepy” effort against Akron in the first round (where the Bruins won by just four points). But they have held B2B opponents below 60 points. This Bruins team is 14th in the country in defensive efficiency and thus I believe they are capable of doing what neither Marquette or Baylor could do and that’s slow down this North Carolina offense. Going back to February 12th, only one team has been able to score more than 68 against UCLA and that was Arizona in the Pac 12 Tournament Final. 

At the same time, I can’t see UCLA shooting as well as they did in the last round (when they made 56.5% of their field goal attempts). North Carolina has surprisingly held its first two tourney opponents to 35% overall shooting. They held Marquette to just 63 points in the first round. The second round saw the Tar Heels hold Baylor to just 29 first half points. But then came the big ejection of Brady Manek, which led to UNC blowing a 25-point lead (in the final 10 minutes of regulation) amidst a massive defensive breakdown. With Manek back in the lineup, we won’t see another defensive breakdown like that. 

UCLA star forward Jaime Jaquez sprained his ankle against St. Mary’s and thus is questionable to play Friday. I think the Bruins can survive without him, but potentially being without your second leading scorer and top rebounder is tough. This is a much higher O/U line than usual for the Bruins. Note the O/U lines for the first two tourney games were 128 and 126! This is just the third total north of 140 for UCLA since Feb 3rd. Remember that North Carolina was held to an average of just 61 PPG in two ACC Tourney games. They won’t score anywhere close to what they did in the first two rounds of this tournament. 8* Under North Carolina/UCLA

8* Over Warriors/Hawks (7:40 ET): Without Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson Golden State somehow managed to beat Miami on Wednesday, 118-104 as a 10-point underdog. Curry (foot) is out indefinitely, but Green and Thompson will both be back in the lineup Friday as the team faces Atlanta. (Those two were simply given Wednesday off). The Warriors can’t afford any kind of letdown here as they now trail Memphis by 2.5 games in the race for the second seed in the Western Conference. I think we’ll see plenty of offense from the Dubs tonight, even without Curry.

In the East, Atlanta finds itself at the back end of the playoff race, currently occupying the last play-in spot. It’s a far cry from last season when the team made a run to the Conference Finals. Losing by 21 in Detroit on Wednesday was NOT what the “doctor ordered,” although perhaps that result was the byproduct of being in the second night of a back to back. Things really fell apart for the Hawks in the second half when they were on the wrong end of a 23-0 run and then could only manage two points over the first four minutes of the fourth quarter. With them now back at home, I am expecting a far better offensive effort in tonight’s game. 

The Hawks are averaging 116 PPG at State Farm Arena, which is marked improvement from the 109.6 PPG they average on the road. But regardless of where they are playing, the team is giving up just over 112 PPG this season. Trae Young had only 21 points in Detroit after scoring 45+ in three of his previous five games, two of those coming here at home. If Golden State can score 118 without its three best players in the lineup, certainly we should expect around the same with two of them back in the lineup tonight. They actually shot 51.9% against the Heat and are now 6-2-1 Over L9 road games. 8* Over Warriors/Hawks

8* Under Jazz/Hornets (7:10 ET): So the Jazz have lost B2B games for the first time since January. They were humbled Wednesday in Boston, losing 125-97 to the Celtics as a 4.5-point underdog. Entering that game, Utah had the league’s sixth highest scoring offense, but they were held under 100 points for the first time since March 4th as they went 8 of 36 from three-point range. However, I’d say it was the defense that let them down more. They allowed the Celtics to shoot a season-high 59% for the game and make their first 10 shots. That’s why the Jazz found themselves down by as many as 30 points before halftime. 

Charlotte turned in a similarly poor defensive effort that same night against the Knicks. New York would score 40 pts in the 1Q en route to a 121-106 final, ending the Hornets’ five-game win streak. Charlotte really struggled to defend the three in that game, letting the Knicks hit 14 of 26 from distance. Look for that to be a “point of emphasis” here as the Hornets try to lock down one of the “play-in” spots in the East. Similarly, Utah has to be concerned with preserving its status as a top four team in the West. So I’m looking for better defensive efforts from both sides tonight.

The Hornets played much better defense over the final three quarters against the Knicks, but it was largely “too little, too late.” Their games, on average, are the highest scoring in the league, but still not at the level of tonight’s number. This season, Charlotte is 24-10 Under when facing an opponent that has a winning record, including 12-3 L15 in that situation. Looking at the number from the Jazz’s perspective, they are 7-1 Under this season when the O/U line is 230 points or higher, including 3-0 on the road. 8* Under Jazz/Hornets

8* Over Wizards/Pistons (7:10 ET): I do not expect much defense to be played in this game. Washington has dropped eight of nine, really putting a dent in their already fleeting playoff hopes. They just lost (last night) 114-102 to a Milwaukee team that was resting both Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo. That result leaves the Wizards 5.5 games back of 10th place Atlanta for the last play-in spot and let’s be honest here: the Wiz aren’t making that kind of ground up. They’re allowing an average of 115 points over the L5 games. 

Detroit is simply looking to avoid the Eastern Conference cellar at this point as they continue to battle with Orlando at the bottom of the standings. It was a rare win on Wednesday, 122-101 over Atlanta, as rookie Cade Cunningham led the way with 17 points, six rebounds and eight assists. Cunningham was one of eight Pistons to finish in double figures, so it was a real “team effort” and at one point they went on a 23-0 run! It’s also now four straight games for the Pistons where there has been AT LEAST 222 total points scored. 

In three of their last four games, Detroit has scored at least 115 points. Can they keep that up here? I think so. Washington has allowed eight of its last 10 opponents to shoot over 50% from the field. This being the second night of a back to back for the Wizards is key as they are 9-2 Over in that situation this season and 27-11 Over the L3 seasons. But look for the Wiz to shoot well themselves, certainly better than they did last night from three (28.9% vs. MIL). The Pistons have held B2B opponents under 42% from the field, which is atypical for them. 8* Over Wizards/Pistons

8* Over Suns/Nuggets (9:10 ET): A Suns’ win tonight would give them home court advantage throughout the Western Conference playoffs. Even if they fail to get the job done here, with a nine game lead over second place Memphis, bank on last year’s Western Conference champs ending up as the top seed. Whereas LY’s run caught everyone by surprise, this season the Suns have clearly been the league’s most dominant team, posting the top net efficiency rating and point differential. A big key to their success is having one of the league’s top offenses. Coming into tonight, Phoenix is averaging 128.2 points over its L5 games. 

Denver is no slouch in the scoring department either. They have averaged 117.6 points over their last five games and that’s not all that far above what they average for the season here at home (113.5). Right now, the Nuggets are simply trying to hold on to a top six spot in the West. Phoenix did them a real “solid” last night by beating Minnesota 125-116. That widened the gap between the Nuggets and T’Wolves to 1.5 games. Denver is coming off a 127-115 win over the Clippers on Tuesday night. In that game, they shot 54.2% overall from the field and 50% from three-point range. 

The Nuggets’ last four games have all gone Over the total. The Suns are 6-1 Over in their last seven games. I know that we’ve got a high total here and both teams can’t keep scoring the way that they have recently, but I still don’t think the number is high enough for tonight’s game. Phoenix has allowed 111 or more points in six of its last seven games and I don’t think this being the second night of a back to back really helps. The Over is 6-1 in Suns’ road games when the total is 230 or higher. Denver has given up 115+ points in each of the L3 games. Look for a high-scoring game. 8* Over Suns/Nuggets

10* Under Bulls/Pelicans (8:10 ET): Chicago ran into a train named “Milwaukee” Tuesday night, getting crushed by the Bucks 126-98. The defending NBA Champs shot a blistering 61 percent from the field against the Bulls, handing them their ninth defeat in the past 12 games. Now you would think, giving up that many points, that Tuesday’s game went Over. But much to my chagrin (I had the Over), it did not. The Bulls scored only 98, their fewest in a game this month. But I do not think they are about to allow the kind of shooting we saw in that last game either. Take the Under here. 

New Orleans is also coming off a loss, 106-103 at Charlotte. They were looking to make it a 3-0 road trip after winning at San Antonio and Atlanta. But scoring only 10 points over the final nine minutes won’t get it done. Like Chicago, the Pelicans’ last three games have all stayed Under the total. (Bulls are also 8-1 Under L9 games). I know the previous six meetings between these teams have all gone Over, but this one should be different as there could be multiple key absences and the number is just too high, given respective season averages. 

Bulls’ games are averaging 223.0 PPG this season. There’s really no difference home vs. road. Meanwhile, Pelicans’ games average just 218.4 PPG this season. At home, things tend to be a little higher scoring (220.9), but not much. Monitor the statuses of Chicago’s DeMar DeRozan and New Orleans’ Brandon Ingram. The latter has missed the L8 games, so him being out again wouldn’t be a surprise. But DeRozan, the Bulls’ leading scorer, is now listed as questionable after suffering a groin injury in the last game. That would be a huge loss for the road team. 10* Under Bulls/Pelicans

**Note: Michigan PG Jones still listed as questionable as of press time. I think the Wolverines are due for a downturn offensively, regardless of what Jones' status ends up being. If he plays, there could be some "rust." 

10* Under Michigan/Villanova (7:27 ET): Through two games in this tournament, Michigan has shot 52% from the floor and averaged 75.5 PPG. They beat Colorado State by 12 (despite trailing by seven at the half) and then stunned Tennessee 76-68, again overcoming a halftime deficit. It would definitely be a surprise if they could win again, but stranger things have happened in March. I did cash the Wolverines in the first round and they are clearly a team that was better than their regular season record. But this game against Villanova promises to be a grind. 

Second seeded Villanova has handled its business against Delaware and Ohio State, winning those two games by a combined 30 points. As expected, it was not very difficult to oust the Fighting Blue Hens as a 35-10 run put that game away. ‘Nova held Delaware to 3 of 20 from three-point range. Then, against Ohio State, the Wildcats raced out to a sizable early advantage before holding on for a 71-61 win. While Michigan has 14 losses on the year, Villanova has lost only one time since Feb 5 and that was by only two points. 

I think a big key when betting the total here is noting that Villanova plays at one of the slowest tempos in all of College Basketball. They are 345th in pace. This is a strong defensive team, one that averages just 62.9 PPG allowed. Michigan is due for a downturn in shooting and ‘Nova is allowing a FG% of just 40.9 for the year. They also allow teams to shoot only 30.6% from three-point range. We’ve also seen Michigan put the clamps down defensively, holding CSU and Tennessee to just 27 and 31 pts in the 2H, respectively. Tennessee didn’t make a single three-pointer in the 2H on Saturday. 10* Under Michigan/Villanova

8* Under Washington State/BYU (9:00 ET): I think these might be the two of the top three teams left in the NIT. Coming into the Tournament, Oklahoma was the highest rated in my power rankings, but the Sooners are out. That leaves Wake Forest as the highest one left, then these two. In fact, the four highest rated teams remaining are all on one side of the bracket with Wake, A&M and these two. Enough of that though. I had success with a previous Washington State Under and that’s the way I’m playing tonight’s quarterfinal at BYU as this is a very solid team defensively. 

Now stopping Brigham Young may seem like a challenge. The Cougars have scored 90+ points in their first two NIT games, beating Long Beach State and Northern Iowa. But neither of those teams are as solid as Wazzu at the defensive end. Note that when I last played the Under with Wazzu, they were facing another WCC team (Santa Clara) that came in averaging 76.5 PPG. The Broncos had scored 89 or more in three of their last four games, but were held to just 50 points (on 30.0% shooting) by Washington State. Wazzu is top 30 in the country in defensive efficiency and kept SMU to 63 in the second round, including 20 in the 1H, on the road. 

But Washington State also has shot just under 35% from the field in this tournament. They were 6 of 24 from three-point range vs. SMU. BYU is also pretty staunch at the defensive end, especially here in Provo where they allow just 63.9 PPG. Visiting teams are hitting just 29.4% from three-point range here. In sum, you cannot expect BYU to shoot the ball as well as they have in the first two NIT games. But their own defensive prowess will keep them in this one, a battle of Cougars which looks to stay Under the total. 8* Under Washington State/BYU

8* Utah (7:40 ET): I really respect Boston, but this is too many points to lay to the Jazz, who are looking to bounce back from a loss. Utah has been one of the top teams in the league all season. In fact, I’ve got them second in the power rankings, one spot ahead of the Celtics. So this line doesn’t make much sense to me. Boston is off a 4-0 road trip - where every win came by at least nine points - but it wouldn’t shock me to see them a little “gassed” in their return to Beantown. Meanwhile, with just a one game lead over 5th place Dallas in the race for homecourt advantage, there’s a great sense of urgency for the road team tonight. Take the points. 

Utah lost in Brooklyn Monday night, 114-106, falling victim to a 37-point performance from Kevin Durant. The Jazz had previously won three straight and the good news is they perform well off a loss. The last time this team lost consecutive games was late January. Since then, they’ve followed their last five SU defeats with a win, including a 15-point victory over Chicago the last time they were in this situation. Something to consider is that while Boston leads the league in defensive efficiency, Utah leads the league in offensive efficiency. They are tough to stop and getting this many points with a team that averages 113.9 PPG is rare. 

The Celtics actually just gave up 123 to Oklahoma City (who is one of the lowest scoring teams in the league) the other night. Now that number feels like a bit of an aberration, but consider Utah put up 137 when these teams last met, back in December (and there was no overtime). Boston ended up scoring 132 against the Thunder Monday night, but they are just 1-5 ATS this season after scoring 130+ in the previous game. The Jazz have won the last four head to head meetings and a 4-0 ATS their last four trips here to Boston. 8* Utah

10* Over Hawks/Pistons (7:10 ET): Atlanta got back into the win column last night, besting the Knicks 117-111 as a 1.5-point road favorite. Trae Young led the way with 45 points, a nice “recovery” for the Hawks leading scorer after he’d been held to just 21 and 9 in in the team’s previous two contests. But Young is certainly no stranger to crossing the 40-point threshold as he’s now done that three times in the last five games. I expect Young and the Hawks to put up a lot of points again tonight as they face the cellar-dwelling Pistons, a team whose last three games have all gone Over the total. 

Detroit did pick up a win last Thursday in what was the lone NBA game on that particular day’s docket. They scored 134 points on the Magic and that was despite being extremely short-handed. Saddiq Bey exploded in that game for a career-high 51 points. However, since that win, it’s been back to losing in the Motor City. That’s even with leading scorer Cade Cunningham returning to the lineup. Cunningham had 25 points in the Pistons’ 119-115 loss to the short-handed Trail Blazers on Monday. That was a game where Detroit actually closed as a 10-point favorite! They fell behind by as many as 23 before briefly taking the lead, then falling apart down the stretch. 

That Blazers-Pistons game saw some woeful three-point shooting as the teams combined to go just 17 of 63 from beyond the arc. Yet there were still 234 total points scored. That was  owed to NINETY free throws being taken. Won’t be nearly that many here, but I still see an Over. Detroit chose to sit five players against Portland, but looks to be closer to full strength here. Last time these teams met, the total was higher. The Over has hit each of the L4 times Atlanta has been in a B2B and Detroit is 10-5 the Over when the number is 220 or higher. 10* Over Hawks/Pistons

10* Under Vanderbilt/Xavier (9:00 ET): Xavier is probably no worse than the Marquette team that got slaughtered (by North Carolina) in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. But with an 18-13 SU regular season record, the Musketeers were simply not going to get into the Big Dance, particularly after losing six of their last seven games. So they had to settle on the NIT and that’s gone well with a 72-68 win over Cleveland State and 72-56 win over Florida. Another SEC team comes to campus for Tuesday’s quarterfinals, that being Vanderbilt, who has beaten Belmont (82-71) and Dayton (70-68) thus far. 

This will be the first time Vandy has had to leave home in the NIT. Their first two games were both in Nashville. Now they’ll try and make it an “Ohio double” after beating Dayton (in overtime) last time out. The Commodores have fared quite well at the betting window down the stretch; covering 11 of their last 15 games. They just missed out against Dayton as three point favorites. As underdogs, the Commies have covered five straight times. But it’s another streak that I’m looking at here, them having produced four straight Overs. Away from home, I don’t see this team shooting all that well. Also, that last game (vs. Dayton) would NOT have gone Over without OT. 

Vandy isn’t a great shooting team to begin with. Their FG% for the season is only 42.4. I look at the L5 games and see a team that has been scoring well above their season average (78.2 PPG). For the year, the Commodores are averaging just 70.7 PPG. Xavier allows just 64.8 PPG at home and has held its previous two NIT opponents to only 62 PPG. What will keep Vandy in this one though is the fact they are 38th in the country in defensive efficiency and allow just 30% shooting from three-point land. Xavier is actually better than that (at home), allowing just 29.4%. Neither team is great at the FT line either. Xavier’s second leading scorer (PG Scruggs) is questionable after leaving the last game with a knee injury. 10* Under Vanderbilt/Xavier

10* Over Bulls/Bucks (8:10 ET): This is a high total, but consider that the last time these teams played (earlier this month), the number was even higher (239.5). That previous meeting did NOT go Over, but did see 230 total points scored (Bucks won 118-112). The Under is actually 2-0 in Bulls/Bucks meetings in 2021-22 with the first being really low-scoring. But for that first meeting, the Bulls did not have Zach LaVine and the two teams combined to shoot an irregularly bad 13 of 69 from three-point range. Going back to February 5th, the fewest total pts scored in any Milwaukee game is 228. I’ll take my chances here with the Over.

Chicago played last night and picked up a key win over Toronto, 113-99. The win kept them in fifth place in the Eastern Conference and also widened the gap over the seventh place Raptors to 2.5 games. This will be the third time this season that the Bulls are playing in a back to back where the first game was home and the second was away. The previous two occasions have seen an average of 237 total points per game scored. The Bulls’ defense has been very shaky over the last month or so and will NOT keep the Bucks in check the way it did Toronto (who shot just 6 of 32 from three-point range).

In fact, the previous two games - when it faced Utah and Phoenix - Chicago gave up 125 and 129 points. Milwaukee has scored 117 or more in every game but one since the All-Star Break. That one time was against Golden State, who is one of the top two defensive teams in the entire NBA. Now the Bucks have their own issues defensively as the last two games have seen them surrender 126 and 138 points. They allowed 38 made threes in the two games. The Over is 13-5 in the Bucks’ last 18 games overall and 9-3 L12 at home. 10* Over Bulls/Bucks

10* Dallas (8:40 ET): The Timberwolves sure are “humming” right now. They’re up to sixth in the Western Conference, and have fifth place Dallas in their sights, after winning (and covering) 10 of their last 11 games. Last time out, the T’wolves beat Milwaukee 138-119 as a 3.5-point favorite. That line swung dramatically after it was announced Giannis Antetokounmpo would not be playing for the Bucks. Minnesota took full advantage of the absence, shooting the lights out, including 22 of 47 from three-point range. But I don’t think they’ll be as fortunate tonight when they face the team they are chasing for fifth. 

Dallas returns home tonight after a five-game road trip that started well and ended poorly. The Mavericks won the first three games of that five-game trip, including victories over Boston and Brooklyn. But then they lost at Philadelphia and Charlotte on Friday & Saturday. Perhaps they “ran out of gas,” but the bottom line is they can’t afford many more stumbles with just a 1.5 game lead over the T’wolves and Nuggets. The last thing the Mavs want is to “fall into” the play-in round. 

It’s been a LONG time since Dallas has lost three in a row (Dec 3-7), so I expect a bounce back tonight at home. The Mavs have a big edge defensively in this matchup. They allow just 102.2 PPG at home while the T’wolves are allowing 117.1 on the road. Remember that I faded the T’wolves, successfully, in their lone loss in the L11 games, which was at Orlando. Because of the strong numbers at the defensive end, Dallas is 23-12 SU at home this season. Look for Luka Doncic, who is averaging 28.1 points, 9.2 rebounds and 8.5 assists, to get more “help” here than he did in the last game. Role players tend to produce more at home. 10* Dallas

8* Under T’wolves/Mavs (8:40 ET): The Timberwolves sure are “humming” right now. They’re up to sixth in the Western Conference, and have fifth place Dallas in their sights, after winning (and covering) 10 of their last 11 games. Last time out, the T’wolves beat Milwaukee 138-119 as a 3.5-point favorite. That line swung dramatically after it was announced Giannis Antetokounmpo would not be playing for the Bucks. Minnesota took full advantage of the absence, shooting the lights out, including 22 of 47 from three-point range. I don’t see them shooting that well here, against a Mavs team that allows just 102.2 PPG at home.

Dallas returns home tonight after a five-game road trip that started well and ended poorly. The Mavericks won the first three games of that five-game trip, including victories over Boston and Brooklyn. But then they lost at Philadelphia and Charlotte on Friday & Saturday. Perhaps they “ran out of gas,” but the bottom line is they can’t afford many more stumbles with just a 1.5 game lead over the T’wolves and Nuggets. The last thing the Mavs want is to “fall into” the play-in round. 

I think Dallas matches up uniquely well against Minnesota. First off, the Mavs play at the slowest pace in the league, a big reason why they are the #1 Under team at 43-26-2. The Under is 24-10-1 in their home games. Also, the Mavs allow the fewest number of three-point attempts in the league (10.9 per game), which is key because Minnesota takes the most threes per game. The previous two matchups between these teams both saw 216 total points scored and had much lower totals. I believe that the offensive numbers for Minnesota are due to “come back down to Earth” and that’s a big reason why I’m on the Under here. 8* Under T’wolves/Mavericks

10* Over USC Upstate/South Alabama (8:00 ET): So this is “The Basketball Classic,” a new tournament for this year that replaced the CIT. Honestly, it feels like the organizers are kind of “making the rules up as they go along here” as you’ve got one team (Portland) already with a bye into the quarterfinals and four second round matchups, so we’re going to be left with five teams and I don’t really understand how that’s going to be resolved! What I do know is that this matchup between USC Upstate and South Alabama should feature plenty of points. 

USC Upstate, who finished with the fourth best record in the Big South this year, hung 80 in a first round upset at Appalachian State last Tuesday. Despite being 10.5-point underdogs, the Spartans led most of the game, although they did blow all of a 12-point lead in the second half. It ended up being their highest scoring game since 2/2, but USC Upstate has now scored 70 or more points in five of its last six games and that’s all we probably need from them tonight. 

South Alabama grinded out a 70-68 win over SE Louisiana in the first round. The Jaguars did not cover the nine-point spread in that game as they blew a 17-point 2H lead. The last five games have seen USA score well below their season average of 71.3 PPG, so I expect them to get on track offensively here against an opponent that ranks outside of the top 300 in defensive efficiency. At home, the Jaguars average 75.4 PPG and that’s the exact number USC Upstate is allowing per game on the road. 10* Over USC Upstate/South Alabama

8* Under Raptors/Sixers (8:40 ET): I’ve been unafraid to play the Under with the Sixers recently as that’s the way that five of their last seven games have gone. One of the two that didn’t went to overtime. The Under was a winning bet when I took it Friday as the Sixers beat the Mavericks 111-101. As has been discussed before, the defensive efficiency numbers when James Harden and Joel Embiid are on the floor together have been exceptional. Embiid is listed as questionable for tonight, but you obviously can’t disregard the impact that will have at the offensive end. Take the Under with Philly yet again. 

Toronto seemed poised to break into the top six in the Eastern Conference as they were on a 5-0 SU/ATS run heading into Friday night’s game vs. the Lakers. But they lost that one, 128-123 in overtime, and coupled with Cleveland’s B2B wins, the Raptors are now 1.5 games back of the top six. Toronto shot 50% against the Lakers, a number I don’t think they’ll be able to match here. They are shooting 44.4% for the year. 

The Under is 23-12 in Sixers’ home games this season. That includes 8-1 when the O/U is 220 or higher.  While the offensive numbers exploded in the first 5-6 games with Harden, the L5 games have seen Philly average only 111 PPG and that’s with an OT game. This O/U line opened much higher than either of the two previous meetings, both of which did go Over, but would have barely scraped by this number. 8* Under Raptors/Sixers

8* Under Miami/Auburn (7:45 ET): I have no unearthly idea how Miami was able to defeat USC in the first round. The Hurricanes were outshot, 48.0% to 42.9%, and made only ONE three-point shot (on 17 attempts) for the game. But they did enjoy a +10 advantage in FT attempts and that, coupled with a fast start, allowed them to hold on for the 68-66 upset as two-point underdogs. I would not at all be surprised to see the ‘Canes get run out of the gym by Auburn on Sunday, but the better play (in my view) is on the Under here. 

Auburn didn’t have any difficulty disposing of Jacksonville State on Friday. That was an 80-61 victory as 14.5-point underdogs. In retrospect, that was a shockingly low number for a 2-15 matchup, especially considering Jacksonville State did NOT win its conference tournament. Auburn allowed just 31.1% in that game. Incredibly, only TWO teams have shot better than 45% this season against the Tigers. Those were UConn (49.3%) on 11/24 and Kentucky (50%) on 1/22. Given Miami’s own offensive struggles on Friday, I’m not worried about them shooting the lights out here. 

Auburn has scored 80 or more in three of its last four games, but those efforts were all against overmatched opponents; a 15-seed and two non-tourney teams. Miami’s defensive efficiency numbers are not great, but I think they can keep the Tigers in relative check here. Jaylin Williams and Walker Kessler ran into each other against Jacksonville State, getting banged up in the process. Bruce Pearl expects to have both Sunday, but don’t discount the injuries. 8* Under Miami/Auburn

10* Under Thunder/Magic (6:10 ET): Orlando’s defense has been absolutely atrocious over the L2 games, giving up 150 to Brooklyn and 134 to Detroit. Allowing 150 points is never acceptable, though the Magic fell prey to a 60+ point effort from Kyrie Irving that day. I’m not complaining as I had the Over in the game. Giving up 134 to the Pistons may have actually been worse considering Detroit is second to last in the NBA in scoring. Tonight, the Magic face THE lowest scoring team in the NBA, Oklahoma City. Can the defense turn around? Yes, I think it can! (It certainly can’t get any worse!) Take the Under. 

Each of the Thunder’s last four games have gone Over, but they are banged up heading into Sunday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (ankle) is listed as questionable for tonight and there were SEVEN players that missed Friday’s game vs. Miami, which ended up being OKC’s eighth consecutive loss. Gilgeous-Alexander is the team’s leading scorer and the second AND third leading scorers were out against Miami. I know the injuries haven’t stopped the Thunder from scoring more than usual, but that’s likely to end for a team that averages just 102.8 PPG on the road this season. 

By the way, Orlando is also banged up and one of the lowest scoring teams in the league. The Magic average only 104.5 PPG (28th overall) and were without two starters (Carter, Suggs) vs. the Pistons. I believe that the recent rash of high-scoring games both teams are experiencing is a mirage, mostly due to the opponents. This total is absurdly high considering its two of the three lowest scoring teams in the NBA. They are the bottom two in offensive efficiency. Thunder games average 214.1 PPG for the season while Magic games average 217.0 PPG. The Under is 10-4 in Orlando’s L14 games vs. teams with losing records. 10* Under Thunder/Magic

10* Wisconsin (6:10 ET): The Badgers have thrived in close games this season, so it wasn’t much of a surprise to see them “turn it on” late against 14-seed Colgate Friday night. Trailing most of the game, Wisconsin went on a 10-0 run to take the lead for good and held the Raiders scoreless for over seven minutes. The favorite ended up not covering (won 67-60, were -7.5), but I’m going to lay the points here as I think the Badgers got a favorable second round draw with an Iowa State team that I’ve not been sold on all season. Lay the points. 

Iowa State shot just 35.7% in the first round, but it was enough to pull the upset over LSU, 59-54 as 3.5-point dogs. Remember that the Tigers had just fired their HC, the day before Selection Sunday. So the Cyclones really got lucky with the draw. The turnaround in Ames has been pretty remarkable this season, considering that last year the Cyclones finished 2-22 SU overall and didn’t win a single Big 12 game! They started 2021-22 by winning their first 12 games, but are only 9-12 SU since (including Friday’s win) and had dropped three in a row coming into the NCAA Tournament. Most concerning is the lack of offense; ISU has been held below 60 pts in three of its last four games. 

Wisconsin commits the fewest number of turnovers per game (8.5) in the nation and gave it away only five times against Colgate. So this team does not beat itself. Like Iowa State, the Badgers have been a surprise team this season (were picked to finish 10th in the Big Ten), but that’s all water in the bridge. I know I’ve pointed to an unsustainable record in close games, but this is a game Wisconsin should win big. I just don’t think ISU is very good. Over the last four games, the Cyclones were held to 36 points by OK State and 41 by Tex Tech! Wisconsin will certainly make more threes than LSU did (only four) here. 10* Wisconsin

10* Under New Mexico State/Arkansas (8:40 ET): New Mexico State made me look foolish in Round 1, upsetting UConn 70-63, thus continuing the 12 vs. 5 seed trend. It was Aggies’ first NCAA Tournament win since the early 90s. Now they’ll meet an Arkansas team that outlasted an upset bid from upstart Vermont. The Razorbacks won 75-71 on Thursday, but did not cover the spread. That was a game where scoring really picked up in the 2H (85 pts) after a relatively low-scoring first half (61 points). As someone who had the Under in that Arkansas-Vermont matchup, I was quite sad. So both of these teams “owe me” one on Saturday. 

Arkansas’ last seven games have all gone Over. That’s the longest O/U streak of any team left in the tournament. This is a top 20 team in the country in defensive efficiency and I expect the Razorbacks to advance here. Look for them to do it with defense. NMSU isn’t anywhere near as prolific as Vermont when it comes to shooting the basketball. Now the Aggies did shoot a ridiculous 64.7% from three-point range (11 of 17) against UConn, but that is a number they certainly will not be repeating here. For the year, they’re at just 33.5% from behind the arc. 

Arkansas has its own issues shooting from long distance as they are just 30.9% for the season. So NMSU may be able to stick around because of that. The Aggies did just hold UConn to only 63 points. It’s interesting that both teams’ games were VERY low-scoring in the first half, yet still went Over. Don’t see that happening here. Arkansas held Vermont to 27 points in the 1H while NMSU held UConn to 22. Look for the underdog to try and slow the pace and limit possessions. Only two of the Aggies’ last seven games would have made it Over this total. Teddy Allen will NOT score 37 again here like he did vs. UConn. Keep in mind the rest of the team made just 13 field goals and attempted ZERO free throws. 10* Under New Mexico State/Arkansas

analysis soon

8* Over Creighton/Kansas (2:45 ET): Creighton was really lucky to advance over San Diego State, as the Bluejays scored the final nine points of regulation and the Aztecs missed a free throw that would have clinched the game. However, the 72-69 OT win wasn’t all good fortune for Creighton as starting big man Ryan Kalkbrenner hurt his knee and he won’t be back. That means the Bluejays are now without two of their top three players as Ryan Nembhard, the Big East Freshman of the Year, was already lost to injury. However, led by another freshman (Trey Alexander), I still expect Creighton to put a decent number of points on the board Saturday against Kansas. 

The top-seeded Jayhawks breezed through their first round game, as expected, beating Texas Southern 83-56 with an effective FG% of 58.0. Kansas is one of the top offensive teams in the country, has shot 50% or better from the field in three of its last four games and averages 78.7 PPG. They are #5 in the country in offensive efficiency. With Kalkbrenner out for Creighton, expect KU’s David McCormack to have a “field day” on the inside here. Also, expect Big XII Player of the Year Ochai Agbagi to have a more productive game than he did Thursday when he finished with only 11 points. 

With Creighton may be a bit short-handed coming into the second round, I do expect they will dramatically improve upon their three-point shooting from the first round, which was a woeful 14.3%. Over their L2 games, the Blue Jays have hit only 5 of 43 3PA, which is just insane. I know that even with OT, they managed just 72 pts on Thursday. But San Diego State is one of the top defensive teams in the entire country. Kansas is not nearly as stout and will find Creighton much more difficult to defend than Texas Southern was. 8* Over Creighton/Kansas

8* Chicago (10:10 ET): The two surprise teams in the East, Chicago and Cleveland, have both started to fall off a bit in the second half of the season. In the case of the Bulls, they’ve won just two of their last nine games, going 1-8 ATS, and are now down to 5th place in the Conference. (Remember that they were once in 1st). With seventh place Toronto making a move, the Bulls need to get things turned around in a hurry or they risk falling into the “play-in round” for the playoffs. Despite recent form, I’m going to take the points here as the road team comes in desperate and motivated. 

Shortly after the All-Star Break, Phoenix dropped B2B games (to New Orleans and Utah), but they’ve since battled back to win seven of their last nine, despite not having PG Chris Paul. The last three games have all been wins and covers for the Suns, one over the Pelicans in a revenge spot. But the other two wins were against the Lakers and Rockets, the former a sinking ship and the latter the worst team in the Western Conference. At 56-14 on the year (best record in the NBA), the Suns have nothing to worry about, but I could see them coming out flat here. 

The Bulls have certainly seen their defensive numbers take a hit over the last month or so, but Alex Caruso (one of their top defenders) is now back and that should help. Losing at Utah on Wednesday night really shouldn’t be taken as a big deal. Now losing Monday in Sacramento was bad. But I just think this Bulls team comes out ready to play on Friday. Right now feels like a “buy low” spot on a team that was once first in the Eastern Conference standings. 8* Chicago

10* Under Mavericks/76ers (7:10 ET): Since they acquired James Harden, Sixers’ games have become much more high-scoring. With the exception of the game Harden sat (99-82 loss at Miami), every Philly game since the trade has seen at least 224 total points scored. But, you may recall that a few games ago, I was the beneficiary of overtime with an Over bet on the Sixers win against the Magic. Had it not been for OT, that game would have stayed well Under the number. Here, the Sixers are matched up with the top Under team in the NBA. That’s the way I see this one going. 

With Dallas, the Under is 24-10-1 this season when they are at home. The percentage isn’t nearly as skewed when they are on the road, but this team is still tied (with Boston) for the league lead in scoring defense, giving up just 103.7 PPG. They’ve been slightly more stingy over the L5 games, allowing only 102.7 PPG. The only team to top 107 against them in that stretch was Brooklyn on Wednesday, a game the Mavs won at the buzzer 113-111.

Twice in those last five games Dallas has failed to score 100 themselves. The Under is 40-16 their last 56 games as a road underdog, including a 95-92 win at Boston on Sunday. With just 210.4 total PPG scored, Mavs’ games are - on average - the lowest scoring in the NBA this year. This is a high total for them, owed to Philly’s recent results after the Harden trade. But be aware that the Under is 8-1 in Sixers’ home games this season when the total is 220 or higher. Take the Under. 10* Under Mavericks/76ers

10* CS Fullerton (7:10 ET): Duke has been a complete mess defensively of late. Over the last four games, the Blue Devils have surrendered an average of 82.8 points per game and rank 224th in defensive efficiency. So I’ll gladly grab the big number here with Cal State Fullerton, who won the Big West Tournament to get here. The Titans have held their last five opponents to 39.9% shooting. Obviously, that’s against weaker competition than they’ll see here. But I still see the 15-seed staying inside the number. 

Duke comes into the Tournament on an 0-4 ATS losing skid. They dropped Coach K’s home finale, losing to rival North Carolina 94-81. Then it was two close wins in the ACC Tournament over Syracuse and Miami. They lost in the Finals, to Virginia Tech, 82-67 as a 5.5-point favorite. I would have expected the ATS losing skid to scare the public off here, but it has not and, in fact, the line has only gotten bigger. I think because of the name on the front of the jersey, this team is overvalued right now. The Blue Devils are young and inexperienced. 

An outright upset seems unlikely here, although we did see a 15-seed (St. Peter’s) win yesterday. But CS Fullerton has dropped only two games over the last month and those two losses were by a combined eight points. The Titans are a very solid 6-2 ATS as underdogs this season and should come in “loose” as they are essentially playing with “house money” here. Duke’s lack of defense down the stretch makes them a prime candidate to fade as a big favorite. 10* CS-Fullerton

8* Under CS-Fullerton/Duke (7:10 ET): While the Duke defense has been a complete mess lately, giving up an average of 82.8 points over the last four games and ranking 224th nationally in efficiency, I don’t see the Blue Devils giving up a ton of points to Cal State Fullerton in this first round matchup. CS Fullerton doesn’t take a ton of threes, so the Titans’ best bet is to keep this one low-scoring. I think they will and the fact Duke’s last games have all gone Over has this number too high. Take the Under. 

It;s obviously against inferior Big West competition, but the last five games have seen Cal State Fullerton hold its opponents to 39.9% shooting from the floor. In the first two Big West Tourney games, they held opponents to 55 and 46 points. In the Final, they upset top seeded Long Beach State 72-71, thanks to their own hot shooting as they made 52% overall from the field, including 11 of 20 from three-point range. Though I expect them to cover here, I can’t see the Titans matching those percentages against Duke. 

This is a pretty high total for both teams. CS Fullerton is 16-5 Under its last 21 non-conference games. For the season, their games only average 136.5 PPG total. They’ve had just ONE O/U line north of 145.0 all season and that was in the very first game. The Under is 4-0 the last four times that the Titans have been underdogs. Duke has shot below 25% from three-point range in its last two games and the O/U line for the ACC Tournament Final against Virginia Tech was much lower than this one. 8* Under CS-Fullerton-Duke

8* Texas (4:30 ET): I think we’re getting a GREAT discount on Texas here as this line looks like it might “jump the fence.” I assume the public infatuation has to do with Va Tech winning the ACC Tournament. Now I very much thought the Hokies were capable of making a run in that event, but mainly that was because the ACC was so “down” this season. And the Hokies only finished SEVENTH in that league. Conversely, Texas made an early exit in the Big 12 Tourney, losing in the quarterfinals to TCU. But the Longhorns are still sixth in the country in points allowed (59.6 per game) and have a big edge at that end of the floor. 

I understand that Texas comes into the NCAA Tournament on a three-game losing streak where they’ve not topped 63 in any game. But two of those defeats came to Baylor and Kansas (both 1-seeds) and they had an 18-point lead over TCU in the Big 12 Tourney. All but two of this team’s losses this season came to ranked foes. Va Tech is unranked. Teams are shooting just 41.2% against the Longhorns, so I just don’t see the Hokies hitting at the same rate they did against the weak defenses of the ACC. The Horns have had just one losing streak longer than three games in the L3 seasons. 

Let’s also not forget Va Tech was just 19-12 SU before winning four games in four days to clinch their spot here. One of those wins in came in overtime and required a buzzer beater. I did think - that like Texas - the Hokies were being underrated much of the year. But Texas was a preseason top five team. I think this is a classic case of “recency bias” as too many people are focused on Va Tech’s ACC Tourney run and not the big picture. Teams that are only in the field due to winning the automatic berth from their conference are good first round fades, in my opinion. 8* Texas

8* Loyola Chicago (12:15 ET): So, as many of you already know, I rely heavily on a team’s defensive efficiency rating this time of year. Well, in this matchup of Loyola Chicago and Ohio State, my side looks to have a major edge in that regard. Champions of the Missouri Valley, Loyola is #22 in the country in defensive efficiency. Ohio State is #130, easily the worst rating of anyone in the KenPom top 40. Look for the Ramblers to exploit this edge and move on to the Round of 32. 

Ohio State was upset LY in the first round of the tourney, as a 2-seed, losing 75-72 to Oral Roberts. That Buckeyes team was better than this edition, but still only rated 82nd in defensive efficiency. Now the problem seems to be even worse. Last year’s upset loss was also nothing new for Chris Holtmann. His teams are now just 11-17 SU all-time in Conference/NCAA Tournaments. That includes an early exit from this year’s Big 10 proceedings, 71-68 to Penn State as a 5.5-point favorite. Also, don’t discount the fact the Buckeyes had to play seven games from 2/19 to 3/6 as a result of postponements. 

Loyola ended up being the four seed for the MVC Tournament, but that was highly misleading as an OT loss to Northern Iowa on the final day of the regular season dropped them from the top spot and they fell victim to a tiebreaker. The Ramblers were always the best team in “the Valley” this season and showed it in the Conference Tourney, including a whipping of N Iowa 66-43. In its last five games that ended in regulation, Loyola has allowed no more than 58 points. While offensively, they don’t score a ton, the Ramblers do shoot 56% from two-point range, top 25 in the country. 8* Loyola Chicago

8* San Francisco (9:50 ET): I think the line is moving in the wrong direction here, for this 7 vs 10 matchup. Yes, I know Murray State is 30-2 SU and hasn’t lost since December 22nd to Auburn. But San Francisco is the better team from the better conference with a higher defensive efficiency rating. The Dons stayed undefeated into December and one-third (3 of 9) of their losses came to top-ranked Gonzaga. Other than Gonzaga, not a single team beat SF by more than five points this year! Five of their losses were by two points or less! So I’m taking full advantage of this line move and grabbing the points. 

My own power ratings are simply not as high on Murray State as some others. I’ve got the Racers just outside my Top 50. I know that they probably would have been an at-large team had they not won the OVC Tournament and got the automatic bid. But that was a fairly weak league, outside of Belmont and Morehead State, neither of whom were in my Top 85. Murray State also really benefited from the fact they shot 157 more free throws than their opponents this season and attempted 149 more field goals. If they’re not getting to the line and not getting those second chance opportunities, then they could be in real trouble. 

San Francisco has a strong backcourt and is also likely getting back big man Yauhen Massalski (13.5 points, 9.4 rebounds per game), which is a big boost. The Dons have not been in the NCAA Tournament since 1998, so they will be highly motivated here. Not that Murray State won’t be, but to me the Racers have the feel of being a bit “too trendy,” especially considering four of their last seven wins were by four points or fewer. Murray State lacks depth in the frontcourt and doesn’t shoot free throws well. San Francisco is outstanding at defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to hit less than 30% from deep. 8* San Francisco

9* Under Vermont/Arkansas (9:20 ET): This promises to be a very popular upset pick as Vermont is a very legit team out of the America East. The Catamounts come into the NCAA Tournament on a real roll, having won eight straight. They hit 60% of their two-point FG attempts and 40% from three-point range in conference play. But I think many be selling Arkansas “short,” as the Razorbacks are a Top 16 team in the country in defensive efficiency and clearly better than any of the other teams from the America East. What I like here is the game to go Under the total as Vermont’s shots won’t be falling at the normal rate. 

Note that doesn’t mean the Catamounts can’t win here. Arkansas shoots just 30.8% from three-point range, so I hardly see them “running away with things.” Even when the Hogs ripped off 13 wins in 15 games, their three-point percentage didn’t go up much. In five of their last seven games, they shot BELOW their already poor season average from behind the arc. In 9 of 20 conference games, the Razorbacks averaged less than one point per possession. Vermont’s defense is not at all bad (just 60.3 PPG allowed), so again, I’m not looking for the favorite to score a ton here. 

Arkansas’ last six games all went Over the total, so I think we’re getting a good number here. Vermont has not lost in regulation since Dec 7, but again, you have to take into account the weak competition. Five of the Catamounts’ last six games stayed Under and the one that didn’t required a 98-point effort from them, the likes of which we clearly will not see here, against lowly NJIT. I do think this play comes down to Vermont’s defense, which has not allowed more than 61 points in a game since Valentine’s Day. Given Arkansas’ poor three-point shooting, they’ve got a shot. The Under is 5-1 in Arkansas’ last six NCAA Tourney games. 9* Under Vermont/Arkansas

10* UConn (6:50 ET): We all know the history of the 5-12 (seed) matchup. In 31 of the last 36 Tournaments, at least one 12-seed has won a first round game. But only one did so last year and that team (Oregon State) came from a P5 conference. I just don’t see it here with New Mexico State and, in fact, I believe 5-seed UConn should be an even larger favorite here. The Huskies have won seven of their past nine games and the two losses were by a combined five points. My own power ratings suggest this should be a double digit spread. So I’m laying the points.

UConn is a team with tremendous length, one that grabs the second highest percentage of its own misses in the country. Only Kentucky had a higher offensive rebound percentage. When 6’9” Adama Sanogo is on the floor, the Huskies rebound 39% of their misses and also make 39% of their 3PA. Sanogo missed the team’s lone meeting with Big East Champ Providence this year. I don’t think NMSU has any ability to match up with him and UConn’s massive edge in size and length is going to be a big problem for the underdog in this one. 

New Mexico State is making its 10th NCAA Tournament appearance since 2007 under four different coaches. The problem is the Aggies have not won in the Big Dance since 1993. The WAC is a really weak league. Concerning for NMSU is their turnover rate (21%) as UConn is certainly better than most teams the Aggies have faced. I know NMSU hasn’t lost a game by more than four points since January, but again … the competition. They lost to a terrible Chicago State team. UConn is looking to end its own NCAA Tourney drought as their last win in the Big Dance came back in 2016 . Look for that to end here as the Huskies win BIG. 10* UConn

8* Marquette (4:30 ET): Once again, this is a matchup where I feel the public is “loading up” far too much on one side, given the respective seedings. Marquette did not have a particularly strong finish to its regular season, going 4-6 SU L10 and getting bounced from the Big East Tournament, 74-63 by Creighton. But I’m not all that impressed with North Carolina as the ACC was “down” significantly this season and the Tar Heels only finished third. They did go on a late season run, including a win over Duke in Coach K’s final home game. But that’s overvalued them a bit. They lost by 13 to Va Tech in the ACC Tourney.

Marquette had some close losses down the stretch and thus their SU record could be a lot better. The Golden Eagles have a higher defensive efficiency rating than UNC, something I look at this time of year. In fact, the Tar Heels are giving up a whopping 77.4 PPG outside of Chapel Hill. That simply will not get it done in an NCAA Tournament game, especially when favored. Marquette had the Big East’s most efficient offense inside the three-point arc, shooting 53.1% on 2PA, and they were also 37% from three-point range. Bottom line: I look for Marquette to SCORE in this matchup. 

I know that Marquette HC Shaka Smart didn’t win a NCAA Tournament game at Texas and his Golden Eagles were picked to finish ninth in the preseason Big East poll. But they might be better than UNC at BOTH ends of the floor. Defensively, no team in the Big East was better at defending the three-point line. Opponents made just 31.8% from behind the arc against the Golden Eagles. North Carolina is a team that often loses when it’s not making its threes (2-7 SU against Quad 1 teams). Also, Marquette led the Big East in steal rate. Let’s not forget UNC lost at home to Pitt last month. Marquette swept Villanova this year and beat Providence once. 8* Marquette

8* Boise State (1:45 ET): Memphis seems to be far too popular a choice here, given the seeding. I know the Tigers are a hot team, winners of 12 of their last 14, but they just got blown out in the AAC Title Game by Houston (71-53) and have to contend with a similarly hot Boise State squad. The Broncos, who will be supremely motivated by the fact the program has NEVER won a NCAA Tournament game (0-7 SU all-time), were regular season and conference tournament champions in the Mountain West. They’ve won 24 of their last 27 games and are an excellent team defensively. Take the points.

With a Top 20 defensive efficiency rating, Boise State allows just 60.8 PPG. They held Colorado State (also a NCAA Tournament team) to 52 in the MWC Tourney Final. Offensively, though they didn’t really show it in that win over CSU, the Broncos are also very good. They’ve shot 50% or better in six of the last nine games. While Memphis has improved defensively throughout the season, the Tigers still are allowing 68.4 PPG. Boise State has lost only three games since the start of February and two of those were by just three points each. 

Memphis also has a major albatross and that is they turn the ball over way too much; nearly one-quarter of their possessions to be exact. Though they did beat Houston twice down the stretch, the Tigers’ “resurgence” mostly came against bad AAC teams that didn’t make the Tournament. Houston is better than any team from the MWC, but overall I’d say the Mountain West was stronger than the American this season. Boise State is 7-2 ATS as an underdog this year and I think the better team is getting points in this matchup. 8* Boise State

8* Michigan (12:15 ET): So both of these teams enter the NCAA Tournament with “chips” on their respective shoulders. Colorado State felt like it was snubbed from LY’s Tourney, so the Rams left little doubt in the minds of the committee this year with a 25-5 regular season. But it’s telling that - despite being ranked #24 in the country and the higher seed - CSU is still an underdog to a Michigan team that is just 17-14 SU and barely got in the field. I think it’s the Wolverines who are not only better, but have more to prove in this Round of 64 matchup. I’m laying the points. 

Don’t be fooled by Michigan’s record vis a vis Colorado State’s. The Wolverines played a much more challenging schedule, one that saw them play 15 “Quadrant 1” teams. KenPom has their schedule rated as the fifth toughest in the country. They successfully navigated their HC Juwan Howard being suspended, going 3-2, and should have beaten Indiana in the Big 10 Tournament (were up 17). Michigan is a team that, despite its record, is still considered Top 25 by my own personal power ratings. Let’s not forget they were in the Elite 8 a year ago. 

Colorado State not only played a weaker schedule (84th), but I thought they were a bit lucky this year (4th in luck rating at KenPom). The Rams also favor a significant matchup disadvantage here, going against MIchigan’s Hunter Dickinson, one of the best big men in America. The Rams are 304th (in the country) in average height and allowed Mountain West teams to connect at a 51% clip on two-point attempts in conference play. That’s not good. Offensively, they only averaged 55.5 points in two MWC Tourney games. Lay the points. 8* Michigan

8* Under Celtics/Warriors (10:10 ET): This promises to be a good game. You’ve got Boston, who I believe is actually the best team in the Eastern Conference right now, going against a Golden State club that needs little introduction. It’s on ESPN. Everyone likes to see scoring, like what we got with last night’s Over play on Brooklyn-Orlando (which included a 60-point individual effort from Kyrie Irving). But here I expect the scoring to stay low as we’ve got two of the best defensive teams in the league. Take the Under.

Boston has gone 23-7 SU over its last 30 games. They were below .500 when they lost to the Warriors 111-107 back on Dec 17. The turnaround has been engineered, in large part, because of a defense that is tied for tops in the league in efficiency this season. The Celtics are allowing just 103.9 PPG this season on 43.2% shooting. They did lose on Sunday, but you can’t blame the defense as they held the Mavs to only 95 points. The Under is 10-5 this season for Boston when the OU line is 220 or higher. 

Who is Boston tied with for the league’s #1 defensive efficiency rating? That would be the Warriors! Here at home, Golden State gives up just 102.3 PPG on 42.2% shooting. Everyone rightly thinks of the Dubs as an offensive juggernaut, but when they were winning championships, their defensive numbers were always among the best in the league. Draymond Green is now back, which is key for the defense. Now the Warriors have gone out and averaged 124 PPG themselves the L2 games, but don’t expect them to approach that number here. Curry won’t score 47 again like he did vs. Washington Monday. 8* Under Celtics/Warriors

10* Under Notre Dame/Rutgers (9:10 ET): Notre Dame finished the regular season as the 2-seed in the ACC, but I thought it would have been pretty ludicrous to consider the Fighting Irish the second best team in that conference. My power ratings had four ACC teams rated higher, including Wake Forest, who didn’t even make the Big Dance. The Irish could only manage a 3-3 split in their last six games, but still made their first NCAA Tournament appearance in five years.

Rutgers had some nice upsets this season, including four straight wins over Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois. However, three of those four were in Piscataway and the Scarlet Knights simply aren’t the same team away from home that they are at the RAC. They have just four wins away from home all season and have dropped four of six overall. Rutgers was in the Tourney last year and made the Round of 32. Led by Ron Harper Jr, this is the first time the program has made B2B appearances in the Big Dance in 40 years. 

I think this one is set to be low-scoring and I am on the Under. I know that the Over is 7-0-1 in ND’s last eight games, but they are facing a Rutgers team that is 43rd in the country in defensive efficiency. That’s significant because no ACC teams rank higher than that. On the flip side, Rutgers only shoots 33.6% from three-point range and that’s not going to cut it. Before losing to Iowa in the Big 10 Tournament, the Scarlet Knights had not topped 66 in four straight games, all of which stayed Under. 10* Under Notre Dame/Rutgers

10* Philadelphia (7:10 ET): The way things stand currently, this would be a first round playoff matchup in the East. While the underlying metrics suggest that it is Cleveland (the current 6-seed) who has had the “better” season overall, I don’t think the upstart Cavaliers would want to see the Sixers in a seven-game series. For starters, Philly beat them 125-119 when they last met (on March 4th). The Sixers are also clearly a stronger team now (because of James Harden) than they were in the first half of the season. 

Harden was in the Sixers’ lineup for that March 4th win over Cleveland. He scored 25 points. Each of Philly’s first five games with Harden in the lineup saw the team score at least 125. But the L5 have been a bit of a different story with them averaging just 105.8. But that number is a little misleading because it includes a 99-82 loss at Miami where Harden sat. I should also mention Joel Embiid, who leads the NBA in scoring at 29.9 PPG. The Harden-Embiid duo clearly makes Philly one of the top teams in the East. 

Now I did fade the Sixers their last time out, and they lost 114-110 (at home) to Denver. But the Nuggets are a better team than the Cavs. Note that Philly did jump out to an early 17-point lead over Denver. Cleveland comes into this game banged up, playing without All-Star Jarrett Allen as well as Rajon Rondo. So I don’t expect them to play as well as they did the last time they faced this Sixers team. Before beating the Clippers in OT on Monday, the Cavs had dropped two straight and five of seven. I know this is a reversal of Monday - when I faded Philly and took Cleveland (won both bets). But the matchup calls for it as I just think the 76ers are the far better team right now. 10* Philadelphia

8* Bryant (6:40 ET): No matter who prevails in this “First Four” matchup, it won’t be a long NCAA Tournament stay for either Bryant or Wright State as the winner will go on to face the South's #1 seed, Arizona, in the Round of 64. Bryant, champions of the NEC, is making its first ever appearance in the Big Dance. Wright State, out of the Horizon League, is making its fourth (and first since 2018). Due to the perceived home court advantage for the Raiders (their campus is located just an hour away from Dayton), bettors seem willing to hitch their wagon. But I’m not convinced they should be the favorites here.

Wright State has three double digit scorers, but little in the way of depth as four players are averaging 32+ minutes for HC Scott Nagy. If there’s foul trouble, the Raiders are going to be in big trouble here. Nagy seemed disappointed that his team was put in the “First Four,” but the reality is they were down 16 (with 11:47 left!) in the Horizon League Tourney Final against Northern Kentucky, so they’re a bit lucky to even be here. It was a one-point win, 72-71, in that game. Wright State is 262nd in defensive efficiency, worst among all 68 teams in the Tournament. 

That shaky defense will be tested by Bryant’s Peter Kiss, who is the nation’s leading scorer at 28.2 PPG and does an excellent job at getting to the FT line. The Bulldogs have lost just one game since Jan 6. In the NEC Tourney Final, they destroyed a very good Wagner team 70-43, which made me look foolish (I had Wagner). I know that Bryant benefited from some really poor three-point shooting by opponents in conference play. But Wright State shoots just 32.8% from long distance and I don’t think they are the team to exploit the Bulldogs’ defense. 8* Bryant

analysis soon

10* Over Nets/Magic (7:10 ET): Yes, Orlando needed OT to get Over the total in their last game, a 116-114 loss to Philadelphia. But I think it’s highly unlikely they hold the Nets to 38.0% shooting like they did with the Sixers on Sunday. This is a high total, but for good reason as not only is Kevin Durant back, but Kyrie Irving will play for Brooklyn. I see the Nets putting up a big number tonight. While I don’t necessarily trust them to cover the spread, I do like the Over here. 

I had the Over in that Philly-Orlando game, so I for one welcomed overtime. The Magic, who have been playing better of late, led by 12 at halftime and were still up 10 in the 4Q. The key to building that lead was the 76ers shooting just 33% in the 1H. Again, I can’t see Brooklyn shooting that poorly tonight. The Nets have shot 50% or better from the floor in four of their last six games, a stretch that coincides with Durant coming back. The L3 games with Durant & Irving in the lineup have all seen the Nets score at least 120 points. 

Both Durant and Irving have turned in 50+ point performances recently. On Sunday, with Irving (unvaccinated) out of the lineup, the Nets won 110-107 over the Knicks with Durant scoring 53. The team shot just 20.7% from three-point range with non-Durant players combining to go 2 of 16. I expect much better shooting tonight. With Brooklyn likely to pile up the points here, we shouldn’t need a huge number from Orlando. Fortunately for them, the Nets are giving up 111.7 PPG this season. The Over is 6-2-1 in the Nets’ L9 road games. 10* Over Nets/Magic

10* Belmont (7:00 ET): The NIT gets underway on Tuesday and you can call this “the Battle of Nashville” with Vanderbilt hosting Belmont in first round action. The underdog Bruins should be psyched for this matchup as it is a chance to beat a SEC program that is located right in their “backyard.” I believe Belmont is the better team here and the clincher is the fact they’ve been off for more than ten days while Vandy is just four days removed from the grind of the SEC Tournament. Take the points here. 

Belmont’s run in the OVC (Ohio Valley) Tourney ended with a disappointing two-point loss to Morehead State in the semifinal. That was just the second loss for Belmont, going back to mid-January. Since 2022 began, the only teams to beat the Bruins were Morehead State and Murray State. There have been only five instances this season where this team was beaten by more than three points. Rarely are they underdogs; just four times all season have the Bruins been getting points and three of those occasions were part of the non-conference schedule, back before X-Mas. 

Vanderbilt is one of the weaker SEC teams, though they are currently on a 7-1 ATS run. That’s in stark contrast to Belmont’s 1-8 ATS slide coming into tonight. But Vandy’s recent ATS success is a byproduct of typically being the underdog. They did have a nice upset of Alabama in the SEC Tourney, but were down 15 in the 2H of that game. Belmont is 3-0 ATS the previous three times they’ve played with seven or more days rest. I like the idea of the better team getting points and I think Belmont will be the more motivated team tonight as well. 10* Belmont

8* Denver (7:40 ET): Playing side AND total in this matchup and let’s start by analyzing the former. Denver, despite four straight ATS losses, seems to be in a great spot here as Philadelphia is in the second night of a back to back and had to go to overtime last night to defeat Orlando (who has the worst record in the Eastern Conference). This line, perhaps influenced by the recent addition of James Harden for the 76ers, opened way too high. Take the points. 

The Nuggets are looking to bounce back from an embarrassing 127-115 defeat at home, which came against the Raptors. The final score there is a little deceiving as Denver led going into the 4Q. They had 99 points through three quarters, but went cold in the fourth, scoring only 16. Getting dominated in second chance points did not help matters. Still, there’s plenty of reasons to “keep the faith,” especially since the Nuggets have won five straight on the road. 

Philly won its first five games with Harden in the lineup, but then was blown out Thursday here at home by Brooklyn, then struggled to get by Orlando last night. The Sixers trailed by six going into the fourth quarter and have now failed to cover in four of the last five games, a sign that Harden has made them a bit overrated in the marketplace. The Nuggets have Nikola Jokic and this game marks just the third time over the last month that they have been underdogs. 8* Denver

10* Under Nuggets/Sixers (7:40 ET): Also going with the Under in this matchup. Reason being I was a little lucky to cash the Over in last night’s Sixers game, as it went to OT tied at 104. The O/U line was 222.5, so the Over was a loser in regulation, but the 22 points we got in the added five minutes were the difference maker. Philly’s previous three games had all stayed Under and while one of those was with Harden out of the lineup, they’ve generally played solid defense (except in the loss to Brooklyn). 

Denver needs to get back to playing better defense after allowing an average of 118.8 points over its last five games. I believe they will get back to doing so tonight. For the year, they are giving up 106.4 PPG, so it’s a big difference from what we’ve been seeing lately. Philadelphia has also allowed more points than usual over its last five games. 

The 76ers have posted an outstanding defensive efficiency rating when Harden and Joel Embiid are on the court together. The number had even rivaled the Celtics, the league-leaders in defensive efficiency. Denver won’t shoot 55% again like it did on Saturday, even though I believe they cover the spread here. 10* Under Nuggets/Sixers

8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): This is a bad spot for the Clippers, who only managed to squeak by the Pistons last night. Now, I know I had LA in that one, as a 4.5-point favorite on the road. They won by just four after Detroit’s Cade Cunningham made a “meaningless” layup with just 8.2 seconds remaining. But to get the SU win, the Clips had to outscore the Pistons 67-49 in the 2H. This team remains short-handed (no George or Leonard) and there’s no real sense of urgency here as they seem destined for a play-in spot in the Western Conference.

Meanwhile, the Cavs are desperate to hold on to a top six spot in the East. They’ve lost 8 of 11 amidst several key injuries and are also just 2-8-1 ATS in that same stretch. On Saturday, the Cavs went to Chicago for a key game and lost 101-91 as 5.5-point underdogs. That leaves them just one game ahead of seventh place Toronto. But they are still fourth in both point differential and net efficiency. I think tonight is a great spot for JB Bickerstaff’s team to get back on track, despite not having some key players. 

Back in October, Cleveland routed the Clippers 92-79 out in LA. That helped set the tone for a rather shocking first half of the season as the Cavs were arguably the league’s most pleasant surprise. They’ve taken a hit over the last month or so, but are still a much better team than the Clippers and I look for the Cavs to get back to playing solid defense tonight. They are #2 in the NBA in scoring defense (103.7 PPG allowed) and only give up 100.6 PPG at home. Lay the points. 8* Cleveland

10* Over Sixers/Magic (6:10 ET): Two teams off surprising results meet Sunday in Orlando. The Sixers have had two days to recover from their 29-point beatdown at the hands of Brooklyn. That was the first time they lost with James Harden in the lineup. The fact that the loss came at the hands of Harden’s former team made it a bit more painful. Orlando, meanwhile, turned in a shocking performance on Friday, beating the T’wolves 118-110 as a 7.5-point home underdog. They were my 10* Game of the Week! 

That was the Magic’s second straight upset win as well as their fifth victory in the last eight games overall, so Philly must take this game seriously. I think they will. Consider that in the first five games with Harden in the lineup, the Sixers scored no fewer than 121 points. The last two matchups vs. Orlando have seen them score 116 and 123 points and that was before Harden came over. The Sixers shot just 32.3% against the Nets, a number they will easily eclipse here. They are 5-0 Over on Sundays this season. 

Orlando can only hope for the kind of offensive day against Philly that Brooklyn enjoyed. The Sixers gave up 40 points in the first quarter and 72 in the first half. The Magic did make 15 of 30 three-point attempts over the final three quarters against Minnesota. Their last five games have all stayed Under, but I think there’s reason to be concerned over how the Magic defense will hold up here. I do think they score enough to help send this one OVER the total. 10* Over Sixers/Magic

8* Purdue (3:30 ET): We’ve got the potential for a real “shootout” here in the Big 10 Tournament Final as it’s a matchup of the two most efficient offenses in the entire country. But Iowa, playing its fourth game in four days, is at a disadvantage from where I sit. After pretty much breezing through their first two tourney games (beat N’western 112-76 and Rutgers 84-74), the Hawkeyes needed a second half rally to overcome Indiana in yday’s semifinal. Purdue ended up beating Michigan State by only five in the other semi, but led virtually the entire game. I’m going with who I feel has been the best Big 10 team all season. 

The Boilermakers beat the Hawkeyes both times in the regular season, 77-70 in West Lafayette and 83-73 in Iowa City. They had double digit halftime leads in both games and completely smoked the Iowa defense the last time they met, shooting 61.2% for the game, including 13 of 22 from three-point range. I realize that Purdue is 0-7-1 ATS its last eight games, but the pointspread won’t be a factor here as we’re basically needing just a SU win. 

Iowa has hit 40 three-pointers in the three tournament games, which is quite ridiculous and eventually those shots won’t keep falling. Had they “only” made 39, there’s a chance they wouldn’t be here as it was Jordan Bohannon’s three with less than one second remaining yesterday that got them here. Meanwhile, Purdue was up by as many as 13 in the 2H on Saturday. The Boilermakers are 24-0 SU this season when scoring 70+ points and will almost certainly hit that benchmark today, given Iowa gives up 71.3 PPG. 8* Purdue

8* LA Clippers (3:10 ET): The Pistons, 18-49 with the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference, are getting far too much respect from the oddsmakers here, even if they are at home and have covered nine in a row. The Clippers will be desperate for a win here after losing in Atlanta Friday night, 112-106. The Clips at least covered the spread in that game (were +7.5), but clearly felt like they should have won, if not for some whistles not going their way. Marcus Morris’ ejection in the third quarter really hurt. 

The Pistons’ recent ATS run is a little shocking and with a short-handed lineup, it figures to end here. Multiple players in the regular rotation missed Friday’s 114-103 loss at Boston (where the Pistons were 14-point underdogs). Detroit lost by 11 even though the Celtics shot just 6 of 32 from three-point range. The Pistons allowed the Celtics to shoot 62% inside the arc and make 24 free throws. You also can almost never count on the Pistons’ offense, which is 28th in efficiency and 29th in points per game.

The Clippers obviously are still without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, but they are a top 10 team in defensive efficiency and thus I don’t see them giving up many points here this afternoon. While LA certainly looks “safe” when it comes to making the play-in round, a loss here could be potentially devastating. It’s very rare to only have to lay a few points to go against this Pistons team, which has been an underdog in all but three games this season. It’s time to “sell high” on their ATS win streak. 8* LA Clippers

10* Princeton (12:00 ET): Princeton was the clear class of the Ivy League this season, but even at 23-5 SU, their resume isn’t strong enough to guarantee an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament. So the Tigers MUST win here against long-time rival Yale in the Ivy League Tournament Final. They come in riding an eight-game win streak after ousting Cornell in the semifinals yesterday, 77-73, a game where they did not cover the spread. Yale did cover on Saturday, beating Penn 67-61 as three-point chalk, and has won 10 of 12. The teams split the regular season series, each winning in the other’s gym. 

This rubber match is being played in Harvard’s gym, so no home court advantage for Princeton. But they do have a clear advantage on the offensive end of the floor as they rank eighth in the country in points per game (80.6) and seventh in three-point shooting (38.8%). Yale may normally be tough defensively, holding six of its last nine opponents to 65 points or less, but Princeton dropped 81 on them the last time they met. The Tigers have shot better than 50% each of their last three games.

I know that Yale underachieved during the non-conference portion of the schedule, but Princeton has been the better team all season and it would be a bit of a shame if the Tigers aren’t the ones to grab the automatic bid. Yale typically feasts on getting to the free throw line and offensive rebounds, but Princeton is typically pretty good at limiting those two things. Yale is also just 4-11 ATS off an ATS win. 10* Princeton

10* Under Va Tech/Duke (8:30 ET): This is a crucial game for Virginia Tech, who is considered among the “first four out” (for the NCAA Tournament) according to both ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm. Coming into the ACC Tournament, I had the Hokies as the second best team in the conference, so I’m not surprised they’ve made it thus far. They were actually a pick ‘em vs. #2 seed Notre Dame, then turned in a very impressive performance last night in defeating North Carolina 72-59. 

It would be a crime if Va Tech missed the NCAA Tournament as my power rankings call them a Top 25 team in the country. My only concern with the Hokies coming into tonight’s Tourney Final vs. Duke is that they may not have a ton left in the tank. This will be their fourth game in as many days, a stretch which began with an OT win over Clemson. I also would not be confident in the Hokies shooting 45% from three-point range again like they did last night. The Hokies have scored above their season average in every game in this tournament. Do we really think they can do that for the fourth straight game?

Duke is 0-2 ATS in ACC Tournament games, having been tested more than expected by Syracuse and Miami. We know the Blue Devils can score, but even by their standard, the past five games (all of which have gone Over) have been a bit outrageous. They are averaging 86.4 points on 51.4% shooting. Those numbers are due to come down. Va Tech held UNC to 3 of 26 from three-point range last night. When these teams played in the regular season, they snuck over by two points, but that was with Duke shooting 53% from the field. I don’t think they’ll shoot that well here. 10* Under Va Tech/Duke

10* Miami (8:10 ET): Looking to fade Minnesota for the second night in a row. Last night worked out pretty well, didn’t it? I said it was time to “sell high” on the T’wolves, who were on a 6-0 SU and ATS win streak going into Orlando. They lost outright, as a 7.5-point favorite, 118-110. Keep in mind that the Magic entered that game with the lowest win percentage in the entire NBA. Now, without rest, the T’wolves must turn around and face the East-leading Heat on the road. I’m fading the T’wolves again, though this time we must LAY points to do so. 

Miami was also in action Friday as they beat Cleveland 117-105 as an eight-point favorite. The Heat are now 45-23 SU on the season and have a 2.5 game lead over Milwaukee for the top spot in the East. They are now 6-1 ATS their last seven games. Last night ensured they’d keep alive a streak which has seen them not lose B2B games in almost two months. The Heat are 13-3 SU since Feb 3 and are a top six team in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season. 

As mentioned in yday’s analysis, Minnesota is subpar on the road (16-18 SU), mainly because of the fact it gives up an average of 116.9 PPG on their travels. The T’wolves are just 1-5 ATS when coming off a SU loss as a favorite and I don’t think the jump in class (in terms of opponent) can be overstated here. The T’wolves previous five games saw them face the Thunder twice, Blazers twice and Magic. Those three teams are a combined 73 games below .500! The offensive production is due to curtail. 10* Miami

analysis soon

10* Under USC/UCLA (11:30 ET): This is one of the better matchups on Friday’s entire docket as rivals USC and UCLA meet in the Pac 12 Tournament’s second semi final. USC had to rally in the second half last night to get by Washington 65-61 and did not cover the 6.5-point spread. UCLA just barely covered the nine-point spread in a 75-65 win over Washington State. UCLA comes in ranked 13th in the country, perhaps a bit low, while USC is 21st and I definitely think that’s too high.

While I may believe the Trojans to be overrated, I’m not about to fade them in this scenario. I expect a tight and relatively low-scoring game. Five of the previous USC-UCLA meetings have stayed Under the total, the exception being the last one. That game was played last weekend and despite losing, USC shot very well from three-point range (42.1%). The fact they could only score 68 points on the Bruins with that kind of three-point shooting is a little ominous. I don’t expect USC to shoot that well from three again here.

UCLA has gone Over in four straight, but they have not allowed more than 68 points in any of the last nine games. The Under is 10-2 their L12 games vs. a team with a win percentage above .600. The Under is also 6-2 the last eight times they’ve been off an ATS win. USC is 5-0 Under its last five neutral site games. In terms of tempo, neither side plays particularly fast. 10* Under USC/UCLA

10* Orlando (7:10 ET): Minnesota couldn’t possibly be any hotter than they are right now, having won and covered six straight. The last five wins have all been by double digits, three of them by 30 or more points! But this has caused the market to take notice and tonight the T’wolves are lofty road favorites, a position they are not too familiar with being in. Yes, they did recently destroy the Thunder in OKC as a similar sized road favorite (compared to tonight). But I think the T’wolves are due for an off-night here. 

Orlando just pulled an upset Weds night, going to New Orleans and defeating the Pelicans 108-102 as 8.5-point road dogs. It was the Magic’s fourth win in the last seven games, a solid stretch for them. They still have the worst SU record in the NBA (17-50) entering tonight, but they played the Suns (who have the best record in the NBA) tough the other night and have just one loss by more than eight points since returning from the All-Star Break. They are 8-2 ATS L10 games with a total of 230 or higher. 

Minnesota has simply been shooting the lights out of late and I don’t think they can continue to do so. They are basically averaging 130 points on better than 50% shooting during the six-game win streak and that cannot be maintained. Defensively, the T’wolves struggle on the road, giving up 116.8 PPG. That’s why they have a sub-.500 record away from home. A team with a losing road record should not be favored by this many points, no matter how well they’ve been playing. Take the points. 10* Orlando

9* Toledo (5:00 ET): The “chalk walked” into the MAC semifinals with the top four seeds all advancing. The first semi pits top seed Toledo against 4-seed Akron. Both of these teams won close yesterday afternoon. Toledo avoided what would have been a massive upset (they were -17 against Central Michigan) as RayJ Dennis made a layup with 10 seconds left to give the Rockets a 72-71 win. Akron won 70-68 over Buffalo as Greg Tribble made two free throws with 3.2 seconds left. 

Toledo dominated the MAC during the regular season, going 17-3 straight up and 16-4 against the spread. So it’s a bit surprising that they are such a short favorite here. The Rockets faced Akron just one time in the regular season and won that game 84-76 as a 7.5-point favorite.They shot 59% from the floor while the Zips did not help themselves by missing 10 free throws and shooting only 28% from three-point range. But note Toledo is 12-1 ATS this season vs. teams that have a winning record. 

Akron comes into this game on a six-game win streak (as does Toledo!) but the last two wins have been by a total of three points. For whatever reason, Central Michigan always seems to play Toledo tough. But the Rockets’ four previous wins had all come by double digits. Toledo is simply the better team here and KenPom has them as an 8.5-point favorite. There’s a major edge at the offensive end where the Rockets rank 35th in the country in efficiency while the Zips are 139th. Assuming UT can push the tempo, Akron won’t be able to keep up. Lay the points. 9* Toledo

8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): The first thing to consider here is that Cincy MUST win the Conference Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament while Houston is obviously a NCAA Tournament team that will get a pretty high seed. The Bearcats did play yesterday, and it certainly wasn’t as easy as the final 74-63 score showed against East Carolina. But after scoring the final 12 points of that game, I think they are going to surprise here and stay within the double digit number. 

Houston did not have a good end to the regular season as they got clobbered by Memphis, 75-61, a game where they were actually favored by 2.5 points. The Cougars turned the ball over a season-high 20 times in that game and trailed by as many as 23 points in the first half. Now that was just their fifth loss of the season and Memphis is the ONLY team to beat them by more than two points! But I can see a combination of the layoff and overconfidence leading to a poor start here for the favorite. Remember that due to injuries, Houston has a VERY short rotation (sometimes goes only six deep). 

Cincinnati did lose the two regular season meetings with Houston by a combined 40 points. But again, the perception that creates has led to some value for this tournament matchup. I certainly don’t think the Bearcats can play any worse than they did in either of the two regular season meetings. They made a season-high 10 three-pointers yesterday, a positive sign, and I think they will play “loose and free” here. Take the points. 8* Cincinnati

8* Over UC Riverside/Hawaii (11:30 ET): This is the #3 vs. #6 (seed) matchup in the Big West quarterfinals. Hawaii, despite being seeded higher, is a slight underdog here in Henderson, NV. The Warriors won five of seven to end the regular season, capping the run with a dominant 84-62 win over Cal State Northridge in the finale. Given the number of points they scored there, combined with UC Riverside’s recent trend, this O/U line looks far too low. I’m going Over.

So UC Riverside has seen the Over hit in each of its last seven games. The last one had a total of 142 (they lost 73-72 to Long Beach State). Given that final score, I’m truly amazed at how LOW this total is as none of Riverside’s last seven games have seen fewer than 136 total points scored. Now, the Highlanders have been scoring WELL above their season average recently. But even for the year, their games average 130.2 points. 

The one time these teams played in the regular season, the game did stay Under. It was a 64-59 Riverside victory as three-point home favorites. Note that the total for that game was higher than it is here. Also, in the first meeting, the teams combined to go 12 of 35 from three-point range. I expect better shooting here. UC Riverside has shot 54% overall from the field in its last five games and Hawaii is shooting 36% from three-point range for the season. 8* Over UC Riverside/Hawaii

10* Philadelphia (7:30 ET): Does Brooklyn, currently in eighth place in the Eastern Conference, probably “need” this game more than Philadelphia (who is third)? Yeah. But don’t discount the motivations of James Harden tonight as he faces his former team. The 76ers are 5-0 in games with Harden in the lineup since the blockbuster trade with the Nets. They have averaged slightly more than 125 points in those five wins, four of which have come by at least 16 points. The Sixers are the better team here and I’ll lay the points. 

Harden sat out Philly’s 99-82 loss to Miami on Friday. But he returned to the lineup Monday as the team beat Chicago 121-106. It was actually Joel Embiid leading the way in that one, with 43 points. In the 128 minutes that Harden and Embiid have shared the court together so far, the Sixers have outscored opponents by 76 points, an incredible number! Also, the team’s defense has gotten much better, posting a defensive efficiency rating that would be better than the league-leading Celtics (when Harden and Embiid are together).

The Nets are still more of a work in progress as Kyrie Irving’s “on again, off again,” status has been a problem (due to him not being vaccinated). I don’t think the team can count on him going for 50 points again like he did the other night vs. Charlotte (who is a bad defensive team). Durant continues to work his way back from injury. He and Irving simply haven’t played together enough over the L2 years and to me this remains an overrated side. The Nets are 2-11 ATS off a double digit win. 10* Philadelphia

10* Wichita State (3:00 ET): Tulsa has been a bit of an unlucky team this season, but I don't think that's going to change here in the conference tournament. The Golden Hurricane did pull out a one-point victory in their regular season finale, beating UCF 73-72, but you’d have to go all the way back to mid-December to find the last time this team posted B2B wins. They finished second from the bottom in the American this year, ahead of only South Florida, and were swept by their first round opponent (Wichita State), losing both games by 10 points. 

Wichita State comes into this tournament off B2B wins. One of them was against Tulsa, 72-62, as a three-point road favorite. Then the Shockers closed the regular season by beating East Carolina 70-62. It was not a great season in Wichita, but the team still sits inside the Top 50 in defensive efficiency. They’ve won and covered five of the last six meetings with Tulsa and in the regular season sweep this year, held them to an average of just 55 PPG. 

Remember that Wichita State won the regular season AAC title last season. It’s been a tough fall this year, but they are clearly better than Tulsa and the rest of the bottom-feeders in this league. This line just looks way too short, given Tulsa has just two wins away from home all season. The only “true” road win was against USF while the other was a neutral site game vs. Rhode Island back in November. The Golden Hurricane are also 0-6 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a home loss. 10* Wichita State.

8* Providence (12:00 ET): Surprise! Me taking the Friars may come as a shock to those who have followed my plays over the course of the season, but the situation is really in their favor in this Big East Quarterfinal matchup. Rested, they are taking on Butler, who went to overtime to upset Xavier yesterday. Let’s not forget Butler had lost five in a row going into yesterday. Providence has not lost to any Big East team besides Villanova going back to January 4th. I’m laying the points in this one. 

Now it’s been established that Providence has been arguably THE “luckiest” team in America this season. Their record in close games is stunning and Butler knows this VERY well as the Friars beat them by seven and one in the two regular season meetings, the latter going to OT after Providence rallied from 19 down in the 2H. But that’s water under the bridge now and we’ve got a superior team, rested, against someone coming off an OT game. Note Butler was down four in the last 30 seconds of regulation yesterday, so it was their “turn” to be lucky.

Providence hasn’t played since losing (by two) at Villanova on March 1st. This means they should be fully healthy as HC Ed Cooley expects Al Durham to return after missing a month, including the second game vs. Butler. Durham is a double digit scorer, so that’s a key returnee. Butler just isn’t that good (14-18 SU) and not capable of playing any better than they did yesterday. Two players carried the scoring load, and I just can’t see Harris and Lukosius combining for 56 again. 8* Providence

9* Under Georgetown/Seton Hall (9:30 ET): What an absolutely atrocious season it has been for Patrick Ewing and Georgetown. The Hoyas shockingly won the Big East Tournament last year, but haven’t won a conference game since as they finished the regular season 0-19 SU vs. the rest of the BE! Needless to say, there is NOT going to be a repeat of LY’s Cinderella run. I fully expect that the Hoyas’ season will end today, but of course they are big underdogs. I think the better play is on the total. 

Seton Hall is a team that I have some faith in. The Pirates might only be the 6-seed in this tournament, but my power ratings actually call them a Top 25 team in the country! I would favor them, on a neutral court, over regular season champ Providence. Unfortunately for SH, one of the two BE teams I think is better (UConn) awaits them in the next round. I also don’t trust the Pirates laying double digits here, particularly after they failed to cover against G’town last week (won by only five). 

That meeting last week just barely stayed Under the number (145) as it was a 73-68 final. The first meeting also stayed Under and was even lower-scoring (70-63). At a neutral site (Madison Square Garden), I don’t think we’ll be seeing a higher scoring game as the Pirates are 15-4 Under their L19 games vs. teams that have losing records. Only one of their last 11 games overall would have gone Over this total. Georgetown is shooting just 38.5% away from home this year, Seton Hall isn’t much better. 9* Under Georgetown/Seton Hall

10* Chicago (7:10 ET): The Bulls have experienced a real “downturn” of late, losing and failing to cover each of the last five games. But most of those losses have come against some of the top teams in the NBA, like Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee and Philadelphia. The Bulls have had some real difficulty beating the top teams in the league, but one team they have not had trouble beating resides at the bottom, that being tonight’s opponent, the Pistons. The Bulls are 10-0 SU/ATS the past 10 meetings including 3-0 this season. 

Wouldn’t you know though that Detroit comes into Wednesday riding an 8-0 ATS win streak. They are 6-2 SU in those eight games as well. It’s easily the best stretch of basketball that the Pistons have played all season. Two nights ago, here at home, they defeated Atlanta in overtime by a score of 113-110. It was their third straight SU win, the first time they’ve managed a win streak of this length since March of 2019. So something is going to have to give here. It’s a matter of which trend(s) do you believe in? Recently, the Pistons have clearly been better than the Bulls. But, long-term, the Bulls have certainly had the Pistons’ number. 

I’m looking for the Bulls’ mastery of this rivalry to continue. They might be 0-9 SU this year against Miami, Philadelphia and Milwaukee - the three teams ahead of them in the East - but their record against the rest of the conference is 24-8 SU. The three wins over the Pistons have been by an average of 22.3 PPG. Nikola Vucevic (questionable) could return tonight. Regardless, the Bulls aren’t as bad as they’ve looked recently nor are the Pistons as good as they’ve looked recently. 10* Chicago

10* West Virginia (7:00 ET): Because Oklahoma State is ineligible for the postseason, this is the only first round game in the Big 12 Tournament and the winner gets the dubious “honor” of having to face Kansas tomorrow in the quarterfinals. So it’s basically “one last chance to shine” for either Kansas State or West Virginia, the two bottom teams in the conference standings. I’m on WVU here as they showed signs of “life” by winning the regular season finale, 70-64 over TCU. Kansas State, meanwhile, has lost five in a row. 

Now the Mountaineers had dropped seven in a row before beating TCU in Morgantown. But some of those losses were close, including one by just a single point to Texas. This team did start the season by winning 13 of its first 15 games. They have lost 14 of 16 with two separate seven-game skids, however, this is the one matchup they can win in this Tournament. Kansas State has been giving up a ton of points recently, more than their season average each of the last six times out. 

Making matters tougher for K-State is that one of their leading scorers, Markquis Nowell, has been battling a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable. Nowell led the team with 21 points when they beat WVU in Manhattan on Valentine’s Day. That’s the last time the Wildcats won a game. Note WVU took the first meeting in Morgantown. Kansas State didn’t turn the ball over too many times in the two regular season matchups, but Bob Huggins’ press could be the difference-maker here. 10* West Virginia

8* Florida State (12:00 ET): Today is the second round of the ACC Tournament. This is the only one of the four matchups where neither of the participants played yesterday. Florida State ended its regular season on a real roll, impressively beating Virginia, Notre Dame and NC State. Impressive is not a word that could be used to describe the way Syracuse finished its regular season as the Orange have lost four in a row straight up and failed to cover five in a row. I expect recent form to hold here and am taking FSU. 

This tournament is being played in Brooklyn. While that’s within the state boundary for Syracuse, they have just four wins all season outside of the Carrier Dome. This team is shockingly bad at the defensive end, having allowed over 75 PPG for the season. Among ACC teams, only NC State had a worse defensive efficiency rating and the Wolfpack finished in last place and are already out of the Tourney. Bottom line is that I have zero belief that the ‘Cuse can win a game outside of its own gym. 

FSU actually won at the Carrier Dome back in January 76-71 as a 2.5-point dog. They did so by shooting almost 55% overall and 60% from three-point range. That was after giving the Orange one of their few road wins this season, back in December. I just think that the ‘Noles come into the rubber match in better form. Syracuse blew an 18-point lead and lost at home to Miami on Saturday, which will be tough to get over. Both teams have thin benches, but the Orange are thinner at the moment. 8* Florida State

10* Indiana (7:10 ET): Already without Caris LeVert and Rajon Rondo, Cleveland just lost All-Star Center Jarrett Allen to injury in Sunday’s 104-96 win over Toronto. One of the surprise teams in the league this year, the Cavs have started to slip, dropping six of their last eight and are now sixth in the Eastern Conference standings. There’s a chance Rondo could return Tuesday, but I certainly don’t like the idea of the Cavs laying points on the road right now, even facing a team like Indiana, who is coming off a rough road trip. 

While the Pacers essentially “waved the white flag” on their 2021-22 season at the trade deadline (including sending LeVert to Cleveland), they are better than their record. No team has been more snakebit in close games as Indiana’s SU record is just 2-11 in games decided by three points or less. But even after losing 11 of their last 14 overall, there’s some hope here with the starting backcourt of Brogdon and Haliburton playing together. Brogdon had 27 in Sunday’s loss to Washington while Haliburton has scored 20+ in six of the ten games since coming over from Sacramento. 

This will be the Pacers’ first time playing at home since blowing out Boston here on Feb 27th. Considering who they faced (Orlando twice, Detroit and Washington), the just completed road trip should have been better than 1-3 SU, but the bottom line is the Pacers are a far better team at home (where they actually own a positive point differential). Cleveland is basically a .500 team on the road (17-16 SU) and now playing short-handed. Take the points. 10* Indiana

10* Wagner (7:00 ET): These were the top two teams in the NEC all year. In fact, Wagner didn’t even lose a conference game until February, after a 13-0 start. But they ended up losing three of the final five conference games and that resulted in a drop into second place by season’s end. The regular season title was actually decided on the final day when the Seahawks lost to Bryant, 78-70, after blowing a six-point halftime lead. That was also Wagner’s lone non-OT conference loss of the season! 

As a top-two seed, Wagner got a double-bye into the tournament semis and they promptly blew out Long Island 82-62 as a 5.5-point favorite. Now that game was at home and here they’ll have to play on the road by virtue of Bryant being the top seed. But Bryant certainly struggled here at home in their semifinal, only beating Mount St. Mary’s 70-69 as a 7.5-point favorite. That game was decided on a free throw with no time remaining. Judging by the respective shooting percentages, you would expect Bryant would have lost that game. But they had a huge edge (+19) in FT attempts compared to MSM. 

Wagner did win the season’s first meeting, 84-81, so there’s that. To me, they have been the better team this season. Bryant has been pretty lucky (#5 luck rating over at KenPom) and my power ratings say that even with the home court edge, they should be a dog here. Wagner has a much higher defensive efficiency rating and should be able to avenge its only regulation conference loss of the season here. They have won 26 of their last 31 NEC games. Take the points. 10* Wagner

8* Over Delaware/UNC Wilmington (7:00 ET): Both teams involved in the CAA Tourney Final have gone Under in four straight games. But I believe we’re getting some tremendous value here with this number, considering the last time Delaware and UNC Wilmington met, the O/U line closed at 143.5. Now, that matchup did stay Under, but that was because UNC Wilmington only managed to shoot 40% overall and 2 of 15 from three-point range (still won 69-62). It should be noted that the season’s first meeting, a 70-68 UNCW victory, did go Over the total. So will this third installment. 

It is a surprise that Delaware has gotten thus far. The Blue Hens were the 5-seed entering this tournament and last night pulled an upset over the top seed, Towson, winning 69-56 as a 4.5-point underdog. The Blue Hens really benefited from poor Towson shooting as the Tigers shot just 31% overall and were a hideous 4 of 23 from three-point range. While Delaware held both tournament opponents to just 56 points, I don’t think they can count on UNCW shooting as poorly as Towson did last night. Also, Delaware gives up 70.3 PPG on the year. 

I’ve gone through UNC Wilmington’s season before; they have been an extremely fortunate team that always seems to win close. Last night was no different as the second seeded Seahawks outlasted Charleston 60-57. I made the mistake of betting against them. Not going to get in their way again. But like Delaware, UNCW probably can’t count on the same defensive numbers they turned in last night as they held Charleston to a 38.3 FG% with only four made three-pointers and seven made free throws. I think this number is too low. 8* Over Delaware/UNC Wilmington

10* Oral Roberts (9:30 ET): The “chalk has walked” in the bottom half of the Summit League bracket as 3-seed Oral Roberts will be meeting 2-seed North Dakota State in the second semifinal. Honestly, whoever wins this will be a huge underdog in the Final, presuming the opponent is South Dakota State, who hasn’t been beaten in conference play all year. But I’m seeing value in this one as I believe Oral Roberts to be the better team. Take the points. 

This is a double revenge spot for ORU, who lost the regular season meetings 72-71 and 77-59. In those two losses, the Eagles shot below 25% from three-point range. That’s very uncharacteristic for them. They are shooting 38.1% from behind the arc for the season and average 83.7 PPG, fourth most in the country. Last night in the quarterfinals, they put up 80 against Western Illinois, a game where they never trailed. 

North Dakota State has been a pretty lucky team this season, winning a lot of close games. It wasn’t close yesterday as the Bison rolled to an 82-62 victory over Denver, but even so they were down at halftime. I think that Oral Roberts is due for some positive regression at the defensive end and they’ve now covered seven straight games on a neutral court. I simply happen to think that the Eagles are the better team here and cannot see them losing a third straight time to NDSU. 10* Oral Roberts

8* Charleston (8:30 ET): The 6-seed is favored over the 2-seed in the CAA Tournament, which should tell you something right off the bat. UNC Wilmington (the 2-seed) has been one of the luckiest teams in America this season, going 12-3 SU in games decided by six or less or in overtime. They are 4-0 in OT games. There have been nine instances this season where the Seahawks trailed in a game by double digits, but came back to win. They’ve trailed in 14 of their 22 wins this season, including yesterday’s quarterfinal victory over Elon. 

Now, given UNCW ended up winning 75-58, you may not realize they were down at halftime on Sunday. But Elon could muster only 22 points in the 2H and their leading scorer was held to four points on 2 of 11 shooting. Tonight’s opponent has had no such issues scoring as Charleston comes in hot, having shot better than 51% in each of its last six games. The Cougars put up 92 last night in their quarterfinal win over Hofstra, who was the 3-seed. 

I made the mistake of playing the Under in that Charleston-Hofstra game and learned my lesson about what the Cougars can do. They are second in the country in tempo and averaging 78.9 PPG. This is a double revenge spot for them as they lost both regular season meetings to UNC Wilmington. But the set up here is a bit different as both regular season meetings saw Charleston come in off a seven-day break. Maybe that was too much rest? Charleston led by 22 at the half last night. This is a hot team and UNCW is a team due to lose. 8* Charleston

10* Portland (8:10 ET): Let’s try this again as we should have had a win Saturday with the Blazers getting a similar number of points, but they fell apart late and ended up either not covering or pushing, depending on when you bet them. Portland was severely short-handed for the contest, but was leading at the half and only down one with 8:41 left. To not cover, as a double-digit underdog, was a really bad break. 

Now Minnesota has been red hot, winning and covering four straight. They’ve averaged 132.3 PPG during that win streak, which has seen them shoot 52.8% or better in every game. But they are due to cool off, especially after shooting a season-best 56.5% in the last game. That came on the second night of a back to back, after they had made 22 of 47 three-pointers and turned in their highest scoring half of the season. There’s just no way those numbers are sustainable. 

So with the T’wolves likely to cool off, look for Portland to take advantage and stay within the number this time. Before Saturday, the Blazers had lost three in a row by 30+ points, so as disappointing as that last result was, it marked an improvement. As beat up as they are, I just can’t see a fifth straight double digit loss here. The first two meetings vs. Minnesota this year were decided by a total of seven points. 10* Portland

9* Under Charleston/Hofstra (8:30 ET): Ok, I don’t think for a second that this game will be as high-scoring as the regular season finale, when Hofstra beat Charleston 89-84. Hofstra is very good at forcing turnovers, but even by their standard, last Monday was preposterous. They forced Charleston into 28 TO’s, a season-high, and obviously feasted off those. Assuming the Cougars cut down on the number of turnovers, that should limit fast-break opportunities for the Pride and I like this game to stay Under a (very) high total. 

Over their last five games, Charleston has shot a somewhat insane 54.1% from the field. That can’t continue. For the year, the Cougs are shooting just 43.8%. Because of their tempo, this team is always going to score a decent amount of points. But what we’ve seen from them lately is simply not sustainable. Charleston also made 52% of its three-point attempts in the last game. That won’t be repeated either as they are shooting just 33.7% from behind the arc for the season. 

Hofstra is also a high-scoring team, but this total is high even by their standard. Seeing a total open at 160 or higher in today’s day and age is quite rare. I know that the last game closed at 160, but that was a season-high for both teams. With a cleaner game by Charleston (who won’t shoot as well) and it being at a neutral court, this one promises to stay Under. The first meeting of the season, also won by Hofstra, was a 76-73 final. Look for something along those lines tonight. 9* Under Charleston/Hofstra

10* Nebraska (2:00 ET): Gonna try again to fade Wisconsin, who remains one of the more overrated (and certainly LUCKIEST) teams in the country. The Badgers come into this regular season finale ranked #10 in the country, however both KenPom (#26) and my own personal power ratings (#27) look at them a lot less favorably. The key to the overachieving in Madison has been a preposterous record in close games; the Badgers are 15-1 SU when the final margin is six points or less. Four of their last five wins have been by five points or less, the last three coming by a total of nine points. 

A win here would give the Badgers the Big 10 regular season title. (They can also clinch if Illinois loses later today). What’s crazy about Wisconsin being the probable #1 seed in the conference tournament is that my power rankings consider them to be just the SIXTH best team in the Big 10! At the bottom of the league is Nebraska, but the Cornhuskers aren’t going down without a fight. The last two games have seen them pull off an upset, beating Penn State by 23 and then Ohio State by eight. The ‘Huskers were DD dogs in both games. 

Back on January 27th, Nebraska was able to cover the spread (at home) vs. Wisconsin, losing by only eight as nine-point dogs. They are also 3-0 ATS this season as a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points. Wisconsin is just 1-3 ATS this season when laying 12.5 or more at the betting window, home or road. Just take the points here as when Wisconsin is involved, it’s almost always a close contest. 10* Nebraska

8* Portland (8:10 ET): The Blazers are in a terrible way right now, but this is a good spot for them to ambush the T’wolves, who are playing the second night of a back to back. Minnesota obviously looked quite impressive last night, easily dispatching OKC, 138-101 as a 9.5-point road favorite. But there, it was the T’wolves in the advantageous situation as the Thunder were coming off a shock 119-107 win as double digit underdogs. Minnesota is rarely a favorite of this size, so I will play accordingly. 

Portland certainly cannot play any worse than it has each of the L3 games where they’ve lost by 30+ points each time out! That is insane. I know that they are short-handed and the roster was reshuffled at the trade deadline, but the team should not be THIS bad. Note those three losses came to Phoenix, Golden State and Denver, all of whom are firmly established in the top six in the West and the Suns and Warriors are the top two teams in the NBA. Minnesota is NOT at that level. Before the All-Star Break, the Blazers were on a four-game win streak (season best) which included wins over Milwaukee and Memphis. 

There is simply no way Minnesota can match what they did last night when they made 22 of 47 three-pointers and had their highest-scoring half of the season. Six players scored at least 15 points. Can you say “letdown spot?” These teams have faced off twice previous to this and while Portland lost both, the games were decided by a total of seven points. This is a great sell-high (Minnesota)/buy low (Portland) spot. 8* Portland

8* Under North Carolina/Duke (6:00 ET): It’s Coach K’s swan song at Cameron Indoor Stadium as this is set to be his final home game on the Duke bench. It’s obviously going to be an emotional setting, facing rival North Carolina in the last game of the regular season. Duke is clearly the class of the ACC this season and beat UNC handily, 87-67, in Chapel Hill earlier this year. Not surprisingly, the Blue Devils are big favorites for the rematch. But I think the better play is on the total. 

In that first meeting, Duke shot a blistering 57.6% from the field. Can’t see that happening again. The teams also combined to shoot 18 of 40 from three-point range, a very high percentage. Again, don’t look for that to be repeated. With all the pregame festivities planned for this game, I can see the shooters affected and this game to get off to a slow start offensively. The last five UNC-Duke games have all gone Over the total, but none will have the emotion of this one. It will not be the kind of “up and down” game we saw last month. 

Duke is also due to cool off here after shooting a blistering 59% against Pittsburgh earlier in the week. In that game, they made 50% of their 3PA. Again, these kinds of numbers simply can’t be produced every game. Note, after the hot shooting in the first UNC matchup, the Blue Devils came back down to Earth 48 hours later and shot just 42.3% in a loss to Virginia. The final score of North Carolina’s last game, 88-79 over Syracuse, is misleading when you consider that it went to overtime. It was 72-72 at the end of regulation. 8* Under North Carolina/Duke

9* Iowa State (6:00 ET): Coming full circle on Iowa State, who was 12-0 SU and ranked as high as #8 (in the country!) at that time. I was adamant the Cyclones, who finished 0-18 SU in Big 12 play last season, were not as good as their record/ranking. Sure enough, they’ve slipped considerably and come into their regular season finale vs. Baylor at 20-10 SU overall. At least they’ve been much more competitive in conference play this season, going 7-10 SU. That said, it was a horrible showing earlier this week at OK State (lost 53-36) and the Cyclones BADLY need an inspired showing here in Waco to seize some momentum for the Big XII Tournament. 

Baylor has no issues right now. They are ranked #3 in the country and coming off huge wins over Kansas and Texas. They need a win here and Kansas to lose to Texas to win the Big 12 regular season championship outright. Regardless, a likely #1 seed awaits in the NCAA Tournament. But coming off such high profile wins, and laying a big number here, it’s a good spot to fade the Bears as Iowa State is the team in more desperate need of a good showing. 

The Cyclones are off their lowest scoring game since 1948 as they shot a season-worst 28.3% from the field. They were just 2 of 17 from three-point range and scored only 16 points in the 2H. Tonight is a revenge game as Baylor handed the ‘Clones their first SU loss of the season, back on New Year’s Day, by a single point. ISU has covered 16 of the last 19 times it has been a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points. They can’t shoot any worse than they did Wednesday and have already shown they can compete with Baylor. Take the points. 9* Iowa State

10* Under Pittsburgh/Notre Dame (2:30 ET): The Fighting Irish have an excellent chance of finishing second in the ACC. All they need to do is win here and have North Carolina lose to Duke. The odds of that happening are certainly good. Now, do I think for a second that ND is actually the second best team in the ACC? No. But we can tackle that at a later date. Here, I’m focused on the total, which I believe is too high against a Pitt team that is inept offensively and won’t score very many points Saturday. Take the Under.

Pitt is near the bottom of the ACC with a 6-13 SU record in conference play. Only NC State and Georgia Tech will finish below the Panthers and it’s likely to be a quick exit in next week’s ACC Tournament. Pitt comes into the regular season finale on a three-game losing streak, every one of the losses coming at home, and the last two were blowouts. I mentioned earlier that the Panthers are not a strong offensive team; they average just 60.5 points per game away from home this season.

Notre Dame is allowing just 63.8 PPG in South Bend, so expect Pitt to score fewer here than the 67 they finished with in the first meeting, back in December. The Panthers haven’t scored more than 64 in any of their last three games. Notre Dame, who has seen the Over hit in each of its last six games, is due to have a low-scoring game. Pitt has been victimized by hot shooting each of its last two games, but don’t be surprised if ND shoots worse than usual here as they are off a loss (74-70 to Florida State) and 4-1-1 Under off their L6 SU losses. 10* Under Pittsburgh/Notre Dame

8* Under Knicks/Suns (10:10 ET): Two teams at opposite ends of the spectrum are meeting Friday night on ESPN. The Suns have firmly established themselves as the best team in the NBA right now. They are 50-12 on the season and have won 20 of their last 23 games. Following a RARE two-game losing skid (lost to New Orleans and Utah), the Suns bounced back in a major way on Wednesday with a 30-point beatdown of Portland. They are surprisingly short favorites tonight against the moribund Knicks, but there’s a reason for that (more on it in a moment).

The Knicks have lost six in a row and 10 of their last 11. They are 0-6 ATS L6 and 1-10 ATS L11 as well. Even making the play-in round now seems like a bit of a stretch as the Knicks trail the 10th place Hawks by five games. Playing better defense would help. Over its last five games, NY has given up an average of 120.2 PPG. All five games have gone Over the total. This is a team that normally allows “just” 107.3 PPG. But, as alluded to earlier, they are catching a major break tonight. 

That major break is that the Suns won’t have Chris Paul or Devin Booker aka “their starting backcourt.” I know that they just dropped 120 on Portland without the pair, but it seems unlikely that they could repeat that performance here. Note that tonight’s total is about 10 points higher compared to the season’s first Knicks-Suns matchup, which had both Paul and Booker in the lineup! I’m less concerned about how the absences will affect Phoenix’s defense, which is #3 in the NBA in efficiency. Also, the Knicks are 27th in pace. 8* Under Knicks/Suns

10* Philadelphia (7:10 ET): Am I falling prey to “recency bias” here? I don’t think so. The 76ers have won four in a row, while averaging 126 PPG, the last three coming with new arrival James Harden in the lineup and those wins have all been by 15 points or greater. Harden has been great so far with 82 points, 27 rebounds and 37 assists. Now the Sixers have faced the Knicks twice and Minnesota. But the Cleveland team they host tonight seems to be heading in reverse and a surprising first half of the season. I’ll lay the points in this one. 

Not only are the oddsmakers seemingly catching up the Cavaliers, apparently so is the rest of the NBA. Over the L6 games, the Cavs are 0-6 ATS and 1-5 straight up. The streak began with a loss to Philly, pre-Harden. Now it may seem as if I’m being unfair to Cleveland as injuries have taken their toll. But with Caris Levert and Rajon Rondo again expected to be out for tonight’s game, this team is at a disadvantage. They were blown out at home by Charlotte, 119-98, on Wednesday.

With Harden and Joel Embiid, the Sixers are now a legit threat to take over the East. It’s odd to see the Sixers have a better record on the road, considering last year they were MUCH stronger here in the City of Brotherly Love. Defensively, they are allowing just 105.5 PPG at home this season and Cleveland has failed to even score 100 in three of its last six games. Look for the Sixers to continue rolling with Harden and move closer to the top of the Eastern Conference standings. 10* Philadelphia

8* Under Illinois State/Northern Iowa (1:00 ET): This is the first of four MVC quarterfinals on Friday. The top seed is Northern Iowa, who had a bit of a shocking late season run to earn its position, beating conference favorite Loyola Chicago (in overtime) in the final game of the regular season. The Panthers have won 9 of 10 (lone loss was a blowout to Loyola) and have shot the lights out in each of their last three games. But in this early start, I’m looking for scoring to be a lot lower than expected. 

Illinois State had to win a game to get here. The Redbirds downed Indiana State yesterday, in an ugly 58-53 game where they covered the spread as 1.5-point chalk. ISU has been one of the more unlucky teams in the country this season, but now finds itself playing with “house money.” It can’t be ignored that before defeating Indiana State twice (also faced them in the reg season finale), the Redbirds had lost 10 of 11. Really, their only chance here is to slow the game down. They can’t outscore Northern Iowa. 

Let me point out that both regular season meetings between these teams stayed Under. There were 142 and 143 total pts scored in those games. Looking through the season results, this is a high O/U line for both teams. Both have had only two games where the O/U line was higher than 149. Northern Iowa has shot better than 55% over its L3 games, a number they cannot possibly maintain at a neutral setting. The Panthers have gone 21-8 Under in their L29 MVC Tourney games. 8* Under Illinois St/Northern Iowa

10* Under Northern Colorado/Montana (9:00 ET): The Big Sky regular season is wrapping up this week. This is an important game with Northern Colorado and Montana battling for seeding. Both are locks to finish in the top five, which means a bye in the first round. But both also have a chance to finish as high as second depending on how things go. Montana is coming off a big upset win over Montana State, who has already clinched the regular season title. Northern Colorado just won a wild game over Idaho. 

Since I am playing the total here, I should probably mention that EVERY Montana game in the month of February went Over. That’s eight straight Overs. They’ve allowed three straight opponents to shoot 51% or better from the floor. But the key here is how the Golden Grizzlies’ defense improves - remarkably - at home where they are giving up an average of only 58.2 PPG this season. That’s top 16 in the country! Against Montana State on Sunday, they allowed just ONE three-pointer to be made! 

Northern Colorado has gone Over in four straight and beat Idaho 98-94 on Sunday (no overtime!). Both teams shot 55% in that game, which I can’t see being replicated here. Because of all the Overs, this number opened 17.5 points higher than the closing O/U line for the first meeting. So I’m seeing lots of value here. This is a very high total by Montana standards. In fact, it’s the highest O/U line for any of their games this season. 10* Under Northern Colorado/Montana

8* Boston (7:40 ET): Two of the hottest teams in the NBA square off tonight in Beantown. Memphis is third in the West with a 43-20 record and has won 24 of its last 30 games. Not to be outdone, Boston has won 12 of 14. Though they are currently just sixth in the Eastern Conference, the Celtics actually have the best YTD point differential in the East and I think they are a lock to move up the standings. Even with Jaylen Brown ruled out tonight, I believe the home team should be favored in this one. 

Now stopping the Grizzlies’ Ja Morant is a challenge for any team. Morant has scored 98 points in the last two games, setting a new franchise record twice. He scored 46 vs. Chicago, then 52 vs. San Antonio (on 22 of 30 shooting!). But I believe Boston, one of the top defensive teams in the league, is uniquely suited to slow down Morant. This is the #2 team in defensive efficiency for the season and they are #1 over the last month or so. Their only two losses over the last month both came in the second night of a back to back. 

The Celtics probably needed yesterday off after rallying back from 17 down to defeat Atlanta. I can’t see them falling into that kind of hole again here. I have a ton of respect for Memphis, but think they will fall to the 4-seed by season’s end (Utah is better). Morant is probably due for an “off game” as well. As a team, the Grizzlies shot the lights out vs. San Antonio on Monday and also held the Spurs to 28% from three-point range. They can’t count on that kind of disparity here against a better team. 8* Boston

10* Atlanta (7:10 ET): These teams met right after the All-Star Break with Chicago winning 112-108. Fortunately, I bet Atlanta early enough in the day that I still cashed plus the points. Since that win, the Bulls have lost two in a row, falling to Memphis (116-110) and Miami (112-99). I’m on the record as saying I think the Bulls are likely to slip a bit in the Eastern Conference standings, where they are currently second despite having the sixth best point differential. Once again, I’ll be taking the points with Atlanta. 

The Hawks rebounded from that last loss to the Bulls by beating the Raptors 127-120. Unfortunately, then they blew a 17-point lead against the Celtics and ended up losing 107-98. Now getting up 17 on a team that’s been as hot as Boston is an achievement. But the Hawks really shot themselves in the foot with poor shot selection down the stretch. Expect better shot selection here tonight and it should be mentioned how the Hawks are much better at home (where they are 18-13 SU on the season). 

This is a big revenge game for Atlanta. Not only did they lose last week in Chicago, but they are 0-3 SU against the Bulls in 2021-22. The Hawks are not only revenge-minded, but more desperate than the Bulls because they are only 10th in the Eastern Conference and just one game away from not making the playoffs at all. I do think they will move up, but with Kevin Durant set to return for Brooklyn, it’s going to be tough to move up very far. The Bulls have struggled defensively ever since losing Ball and Caruso. Trae Young had only 14 points in the last meeting. He’s scored 72 in the two games since. 10* Atlanta

8* Kennesaw State (7:00 ET): Kennesaw State has been incredibly unlucky this season, finishing fourth in the A-Sun East Division despite being tied for the fifth highest rating (in the conference) over at KenPom. I think the Owls can give Western Division Champ Jacksonville State a real scare here in the quarterfinals, even though they are at the disadvantage of having had to play a game to get here. On Monday, the Owls defeated Eastern Kentucky 82-73 and covered the 3.5-point spread. 

This game is at Jacksonville State as the higher seed gets to host all games in the A-Sun Tourney. Jacksonville State certainly ended the regular season well, posting four straight wins and covers. All four wins were by double digits. But now could be a good chance to “sell high” on the Gamecocks, who are just 1-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points this season. It was only a six-point game when they won at Kennesaw State back in January. Kennesaw is 5-1 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a home loss. 

Also, while Kennesaw is just 2-4 SU over its last six games, they have been remarkably competitive. The four losses have either been by less than six points or in overtime. The Owls really should have a better record and this is a game with some serious upset potential. The underdog has outscored its opponents over the course of this season, which further illustrates how unlucky they have been. Eventually, a team’s luck WILL turn and I give the dog an excellent shot at pulling off the outright win here. 8* Kennesaw State

8* Oakland (7:00 ET): I’ve got the Golden Grizzlies rated as the better team here, so I’m surprised the line has moved this way. Oakland did need a win to make the quarterfinals while Wright State had a bye. But that disadvantage is mitigated by yesterday being an off-day. And it’s not like Oakland was really tested on Tuesday. They won rather easily, 69-58 over a terrible IUPUI team, and while they did not cover, take note that the spread was pretty massive (-23.5). I’m taking the better team and the points here. 

The reason Oakland failed to cover Tuesday was that they were just 8 of 27 from three-point range while IUPUI was 9 of 15. Still being able to win by double digits, while being on the wrong end of that kind of three-point percentage disparity, is pretty impressive. Now, as was already stated, IUPUI is a terrible team (maybe the worst in the country). But I’ve got Oakland rated as the top team in the Horizon, even though they finished fifth! Yes, you’ve got to factor the home court edge for Wright State into this line. But I don’t think that’s enough for Wright State to be favored by this many. 

Oakland has double revenge from the regular season, losing the two meetings by 4 and 11. Both were one-point games at half. I think it speaks volumes that in the regular season finale, Oakland was a favorite over regular season champ Cleveland State and won rather easily. They’ve struggled at the betting window much of the season, but this is a rare time they are underdogs. Wright State does not defend the three-point line well and I don’t think they’ll outrebound Oakland the same way they did in the two regular season matchups. Trust me on this one. Oakland is the better team! 8* Oakland

10* Oklahoma City (9:10 ET): The Thunder have obviously struggled to win games this season, but only Memphis has a better ATS record, OKC has covered at a 64.4% rate this season. That said, they did lose by 21 at home to Sacramento on Monday night. You’ve got to think we’re getting a bounce back effort from the Thunder tonight and I will take the big number. 

The Thunder have played Denver tough in the two previous meetings, both of which were played in OKC. They won outright (by 14!) in the first one, then only lost the rematch by four points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is back in the lineup now and he has scored 30 or more in all three games since returning. 

I just think this is a good time to “sell high” on Denver, who is a season-best 11 games over .500 and coming off a 32-point win over Portland. The Nuggets are still without some key players. Looking at the Nuggets’ current six-game win streak, only twice have they prevailed by more than 10 and twice they won by only a single point. 10* Oklahoma City

10* LSU (9:00 ET): This is a big one for LSU, who I consider a Top 20 team in America, but they are just 8th in the SEC with an 8-8 SU record. To me, the Tigers should be up there competing with the top four for a conference championship. Tonight they face an Arkansas team that is up in that top four and whose only loss in the last two months was by a single point at Alabama. The Razorbacks are 9-0-1 ATS their L10 games as they pushed as two-point favorites over Kentucky this past weekend. 

I have the underdog rated as the better team here, so this is too many points and I’ll gladly take them. LSU has won four of six, but both losses were by a total of seven points and one was at Kentucky. The Tigers certainly remember losing as 6.5-point favorites to Arkansas back in Baton Rouge last month. Now it's payback time. 

This is a tough spot for the Hogs, coming off the win over UK. They also have Tennessee on deck. Tonight marks just the sixth time that LSU is an underdog this season. They are #4 in the country in defensive efficiency. 10* LSU

8* New York (7:40 ET): The Knicks are going for immediate revenge here as they lost to the Sixers, at home, 125-109 on Sunday. The team, which made the playoffs last year, has now failed to cover the spread in 9 of its last 10 games and finds itself on the outside of the playoffs, four games back of the Hawks. It’s now or never for NY if they are to make a playoff push. Though tonight’s rematch is on the road, I don’t see the Knicks getting blown out. I’m taking the points. 

The Sixers have won three in a row, all on the road. But they are also 0-5 against the spread in their last five home games following a road trip of seven or more days. This will be the Sixers’ first home game since 2/15 when they were absolutely humiliated (losing by 48) to Boston. Here, all we are needing is the underdog to stay within single digits.

The Sixers are winning by an average of just two points per game at home this season. They are third in the Eastern Conference coming into tonight, but my power ratings consider them the fifth best team. Note that on Sunday, it was only a two-point game entering the 4Q. 8* New York

8* UNC Asheville (2:00 ET): UNC Asheville will look to make it a season sweep over Charleston Southern this afternoon. The two regular season meetings weren’t even close with the Bulldogs winning by 23 at home and 19 on the road. Going back, they’ve beaten Charleston Southern all six times over the L3 seasons. This will be the first time, during that stretch, that the teams are meeting in the Big South Tournament. I expect the favorite to roll here. 

Charleston Southern, who is seeded last in this Tourney, has just one win in its last 12 games and it came over a non-DI foe (Toccoa Falls). Since then, it’s been six straight losses, most of them by double digits. The Buccaneers’ one and only Big South victory this season took place at home, against High Point, and it was by just four points. This is a bad basketball team, folks. 

UNC Asheville was taken to triple overtime in its regular season finale, but did end up beating Presbyterian 98-96. That was a well-earned victory after dropping the previous two games by a total of six points. Now note the number of points that Charleston Southern allowed in its regular season finale (92) and that was just in regulation. UNC Asheville is 10-3 ATS L13 after allowing 80+ points while Charleston Southern is 2-9 ATS its L11 in that same situation. Lay the points. 8* UNC Asheville

8* LA Lakers (10:00 ET): It’s getting to be desperate times for these Lakers, who are six games below .500 and just got their doors blown off, 123-95, at home by New Orleans on Sunday. Certainly, the best Laker fans can hope for is making the play-in round for a second straight year, which does not match the preseason expectations for this club. LeBron James has not endeared himself to management with recent comments about a possible second return to Cleveland. The team was soundly booed off the court after getting blown out by the Pelicans. 

But I think this is a solid “buy low” spot on the Lakers. It’s a national TV game, at home, and they aren’t going to want to be blown out yet again. They’re facing a Dallas team that I took on Sunday and it ended up being a very fortunate outright winner as the Mavs came back from 21 down to stun the Warriors 107-101 as a 3.5-point underdog. I’ll take the win, but it’s almost as if Golden State “fell asleep at the wheel,” scoring just 13 points in the 4Q and shooting 28.2% from three-point range for the game.

As I said in my analysis, the Warriors were short-handed for that game (no Thompson or Green). The Lakers won’t have Anthony Davis, but they do have LeBron James and are getting points at home. The Mavericks are wrapping up a five-game road trip here and have a rematch with the Warriors (in Dallas) on deck. I feel that this game is way more important to the home team and thus taking the points is the best option here. The Lakers are 9-2 ATS this season after scoring 100 pts or less the previous game. 8* LA Lakers

10* Over Clippers/Rockets (8:10 ET): Second time in a row these teams are facing off, which is probably just fine as far as the Clippers are concerned, considering that the Rockets have now lost nine in a row and 13 of their last 14. It was a low-scoring game when they met on Sunday, 99-98, with the Clippers rallying to win in the 4Q. The Under was an easy winner there (by more than 30 points!), but you should expect a lot more points from tonight’s rematch and I’m calling for an Over. 

Houston games average the most possessions in the league as they play at the fastest tempo. More possessions (theoretically) should lead to more points. The thing is neither team shot all that well on Sunday as the Clippers made only 44.2% of their attempts while the Rockets were down at 38.0%. The teams did combine for 76 three-point attempts and there’s no reason to believe we won’t see a similar number tonight. For the year, the Clippers and Rockets combine to average 73 3PA per game. 

The Rockets also have the league’s worst defensive efficiency rating, not a surprise seeing as how they are allowing 117.8 PPG, easily the most in the NBA. Sunday marked the first time since November 6th that they held an opponent below 100 points. Even so, Houston has still allowed 123.8 PPG over its last five contests. Los Angeles is a lock to score a lot more here and Houston should be more effective inside the arc than they were on Sunday (just 18 of 50 on 2PA). It’s a big increase in points that the oddsmakers are asking for, but then again the Over is 18-9 in Rockets’ home games. 10* Over Clippers/Rockets

8* Holy Cross (7:00 ET): Though they dropped BOTH regular season meetings to American U, I absolutely LOVE the situation here for Holy Cross, who is getting this 1st round Patriot League tournament matchup at home due to still finishing with a better conference record. American U has just five conference wins this year and finished in the basement of the Patriot League. In addition to two of the wins coming at HC’s expense, the Eagles won their final regular season game, 65-55 over Loyola MD. 

The fact that American won their last game only enhances my desire to fade them here. The Eagles have not won two straight conference games all season. They also have just three road wins. One of those obviously came here, but that was a game where Holy Cross turned in a putrid offensive effort in the 1H, scoring just 14 points. I think it’s fair to say that won’t be repeated tonight. The idea that American U would sweep three games against the same opponent just seems unlikely to me. 

Holy Cross actually has more than just double revenge coming into this one, they’ve actually lost the L6 head to head meetings. While you might then argue that history is NOT on the side of the home favorite here, I would beg to differ as American U has not won B2B games at any point since Dec 8-11. I find it quite hard to believe the Eagles could beat the same team on the road twice in the same season. After an ATS win this season, American has gone 2-11 SU and been outscored by 10.9 PPG. 8* Holy Cross

10* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): I like the value we’re getting here. Eastern Michigan was a 2.5-point favorite when it won at Kalamazoo back on January 4th. The final score of that game was 85-79 and the Eagles never trailed and led by 17 at the half. Now not a ton has gone right for EMU since winning that conference opener. They come into their final regular season home game having dropped 12 of 15 and have failed to cover each of the last four games. But this is a VERY winnable contest where they are laying a short number to the worst team in the MAC. I’m laying the points. 

Western Michigan had zero conference wins entering Feb 12, but have shockingly won three of their last five, including a 78-67 upset at Bowling Green (were 8.5 point underdogs) on Saturday. That win snapped a 13-game road losing streak for the Broncos, so the idea of them winning AGAIN on the road seems far-fetched. Here’s the other thing; only the top eight teams in the MAC qualify for the conference tournament and WMU has already been eliminated from contention. So they’ve got NOTHING to play for these L2 games. 

Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan can still find its way into the Conference Tourney by winning its last two games. So their motivation is high here. I know the Eagles have struggled to cover the spread recently (1-7 ATS L8), but again, this seems like a REALLY solid value at home against the worst team in the MAC. EMU should have no problem scoring on a team that gives up nearly 80 PPG on the road. 10* Eastern Michigan

10* Fresno State (10:00 ET): The upcoming Mountain West Tournament figures to be a real “dogfight” with the likes of Boise State, Wyoming, San Diego State and Colorado State considered the favorites. But don’t discount this Fresno State team as a possible darkhorse. I realize that the Bulldogs are just 7-7 SU in conference play, but this is a team that ranks #3 in the COUNTRY in scoring defense, giving up just 57.4 PPG. Here at home, that number drops to a paltry 55.7 PPG! 

New Mexico is a team we last checked on last weekend. They traveled to face last place San Jose State, who was still winless in conference play, and promptly lost 71-55 as 5.5-point chalk. I was obviously very glad to have faded the Lobos in that spot. Two days later, they lost again, badly, this time as 12-point underdogs (81-56 to Utah State). Saturday saw them snap their losing streak with a four-point win over Air Force, but they did not cover the eight-point spread. Note that New Mexico has just one SU win this year in conference play against someone other than Air Force and San Jose State, who are the bottom two teams. 

Back on Jan 25, FSU won the first meeting of these teams, 65-60 in Albuquerque. New Mexico is much weaker away from home where it is 2-10 SU and giving up 81.5 PPG. Given Fresno State’s defensive numbers (see above), this has the potential to turn into a real blowout. The Bulldogs have covered six of their last seven games against teams with losing records and with their regular season ending with games at San Diego State and Wyoming, a win here is a must. They won by 25 at Air Force last Tuesday and haven’t played since. So the schedule sets up quite nicely for them to dominate on Monday. 10* Fresno State

8* Texas Southern (8:30 ET): Given the fact Texas Southern was a 2.5-point favorite for the first meeting with Alcorn State (and that was on the road), it would seem as if we’re getting a bit of a “discount” on the Tigers here at home Monday night. Now, the fact TX Southern lost that first meeting, 73-72, obviously had to be accounted for by the oddsmakers. But my power ratings say that they should be double digit favorites in this one. They’ve won 9 of their last 10 games overall! 

This game will go a long way in determining the winner of the SWAC’s West Division. Currently, despite losing the first head to head meeting, TX Southern has a half-game edge on Alcorn State. But Alcorn State’s final two games are against the two last place teams in the conference and at home. Figuring they’ll win those, the Braves are in control of their own destiny as far as the division race is concerned. But if TX Southern were to win here and then Saturday vs. Prairie View A&M, they’d win the division based on a better overall WL record.

This is Alcorn State’s second road game in three days. They upset PV A&M on Saturday, winning 72-69 as a 2.5-point dog. It was the Braves’ fourth consecutive road win and they really benefited from the opponent going 4 of 17 from three-point range. Alcorn’s last two victories have been by a total of four points. As for TX Southern, I’ve got them as the favorites to win the SWAC Tournament. They shot an impressive 55% against Jackson State on Saturday (third straight game over 50%) and are winning by an average of almost 15 PPG at home this season. Alcorn State shoot just 40.3% on the road, averaging 63.9 PPG. 8* Texas Southern

10* Chicago (7:40 ET): This is a huge game for the Bulls. Not just because they are a game back of the Eastern Conference lead, but they are also 0-2 vs. the Heat in the 2021-22 season. Those losses were by three in Chicago and 26 here in Miami and both came before Christmas. The Bulls had won six in a row going into Saturday’s game with Memphis, where they ended up losing by six. As the underdog, I like them plus the points here on Monday. 

Miami is coming off its highest scoring game since Opening Night. They defeated San Antonio 133-129 on Saturday to improve to 2-0 since the All-Star Break. I find it very difficult to believe that the Heat can match its shooting from the other night as they made 56.6% from the field against the Spurs. It should be noted that the team is 1-6 straight up the last three seasons when coming off a game where they scored 130 or more points. The Heat may be 8-1 SU over their L9 games, but they have also failed to cover the number in four of the last five.

Chicago, who has yet to have a losing month all season, is desperate for a “marquee” win this season. Including the 0-2 record vs. Miami, the Bulls are just 1-10 SU against teams with a win percentage of .600 or better. Despite injuries, they continue to lean on DeMar DeRozan, who has 10 straight games with 30+ points. Perhaps even more impressive is the fact DeRozan has shot 50% or better from the field in 8 of those 10 games. He and his teammates will shoot better tonight than they did vs. Memphis. The Bulls are 19-4 ATS this season off a non-conference game. 10* Chicago

8* Dallas (7:40 ET): The Mavs let one slip away Friday against the Jazz. They were up seven at halftime after shooting 56% from the field and making 10 three-pointers. But the offense went cold in the 2H (just 48 points) and they went down 114-109 as 6.5-point underdogs. That result leaves them now tied with Denver for fifth place in the Western Conference. Things get no easier on Sunday night as the Mavs stay on the road to face Golden State. But the Warriors are not at full strength right now and this is a game the road team can steal. Take the points. 

The Warriors are second in the West, six games back of the Suns. I do expect that gap to shrink over the course of the next couple months, but for right now the Dubs are still without Draymond Green and Klay Thompson is questionable for tonight. They were dominant on Thursday, winning by 37 in Portland, but the Mavs are a far better team than the Blazers. Golden State actually went into the All-Star Break on an 0-7 ATS slide at the betting window while Dallas is 7-1 ATS its last eight games. 

The irony of Dallas’ defensive breakdown Friday night is that they are one of the league’s top defensive teams. They allow just 103.5 PPG (tied for 2nd in the league) and play at the slowest pace in the league. Controlling the tempo will go a long way here in limiting the Warriors offensively. In two previous meetings, Dallas has held Steph Curry to 3 of 19 shooting from three-point range. I expect this to be a close game where having points in our “back pocket” will be huge. 8* Dallas

10* Utah (3:40 ET): With Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell both back in the fold, the Jazz are beginning to resemble the team that was quite dominant in the early part of the season (began 26-9 SU). They’ve slipped to fourth in the West, but I think Utah is a lot closer to the top two (Phoenix, Golden State) than most realize and they are better than third place Memphis. Coming from behind to defeat Dallas on Friday was a solid start to the second half of the season and I think the Jazz are prepared to make a definitive “statement” this afternoon on national TV against Phoenix. 

There’s been some substantial line movement for this game as the Suns are going to be without Chris Paul and Cameron Payne. This puts the home team at a significant disadvantage for a matchup that would have been pretty even, if they were at full strength. I faded the Suns on Friday when they lost outright at home to New Orleans, 117-102, as a 6.5-point favorite. You could see the effect of not having Paul on the floor as the offense grew stagnant. Also, historically, the Suns’ turnover rate goes way up when not having Paul in the lineup. 

This is a double revenge game for Utah, who lost twice to Phoenix last month, by six and eight points. The games were played in a three-day span and the Jazz were without Mitchell and Gobert for both games. Mike Conley also missed the second meeting. Yet Utah was actually ahead in the 4Q of that game, despite being without three All Stars. Now it’s Phoenix playing with a depleted roster. While the Suns must still be respected, I’m expecting a bit of a second-half decline from them while the Jazz should surge into the top three in the Western Conference. Love this spot for the Jazz. 10* Utah

10* Monmouth (2:00 ET): These MAAC rivals are playing for the second time in three games with Monmouth going for the season sweep. Unfortunately for the Hawks, in between these two meetings with Siena, they lost outright (as a four-point favorite) to St. Peter’s, 70-65. Meanwhile, Siena bounced back with a 78-71 win at Quinnipiac where they were 2.5-point dogs. The Saints have been among the luckiest teams in the country this season and are not even in the top 250 of my power ratings! It is rather shocking to see them tied for second in the conference coming into the final week of the regular season. 

Monmouth could overtake Siena for second with a win here. It would give them the season-sweep and thus the tiebreak. St. Peter’s is also a game ahead of Monmouth and the Hawks were swept by them. But it’s a very favorable last few games here for Monmouth as they should be favored to win out. The Hawks have been absolute beasts on the road this year, going 13-2 ATS, including 4-0 when laying three points or fewer. When they beat Siena last month, they held them to just 19 points in the first half! As I mentioned the last time I faded them, first half scoring has been an issue for Siena all season. They average 30.1 PPG in the 1H! 

Since that last time I faded Siena (a winner as they lost outright here at home to Marist), they’ve won two of three. But this is still a team that I feel is very lucky to even have a winning record this season. They rank 272nd in the country in offensive efficiency and 201st defensively. It is very telling that the oddsmakers have them as underdogs at home for today’s game. Iona is clearly the best MAAC team this season, but I have Monmouth #2 and Siena down at #7 in my own power ratings. Lay the short number here. 10* Monmouth

10* Oregon (10:00 ET): #16 USC has been living dangerously of late, winning its last two games by a total of five points. I played against the Trojans in both games, neither of which they covered. In fact, this team is now 2-6-1 ATS its last nine games. They won in the final second over Washington State last Sunday, 62-60 (as seven-point chalk) after trailing most of the way. Thursday’s win at Oregon State required double overtime. That was against the last place team in the Pac 12. Now, for the first time since their last loss, USC finds itself playing a second straight road game.

Oregon picked up a huge win on Thursday, beating #12 UCLA 68-63 here in Eugene. Can the Ducks now make it a “SoCal double” against two of the league’s three ranked teams? I think so! Oregon has now swept UCLA and can do the same here to USC after besting the Trojans 79-69 as six-point underdogs in LA last month. Firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble, a win tonight would do wonders for the Ducks’ resume.

And they are favored! Last month, they were up 16 on USC at the half. This is a team that began the year ranked in the Top 15. USC has two key players - Boogie Ellis and Isaiah White - listed as questionable for tonight. So their depth will be tested on the road. I simply do not think the Trojans are as good as their ranking. They’ve been very lucky this season to go 8-1 SU in games decided by five points or less. The line for this game “tells the story.” 10* Oregon