10* Under Jazz/Spurs (8:35 ET): Both these teams are coming off back to back high scoring encounters. Utah held off Dallas on Christmas Night, 120-116, in a game that featured a ton of free throw attempts. That followed a 128-116 win over Minnesota. Meanwhile, San Antonio is off its two best offensive games of the season as they scored 138 on the Lakers Thursday and 144 on Detroit last night. For a variety of reasons, I anticipate we’ll be seeing a massive decrease in scoring from both teams on Monday. 

The Jazz won’t have PG Donovan Mitchell available tonight due to a back strain. The injury actually occurred in the first quarter of the Dallas game, but Mitchell still went on to score 33 points, his ninth 30+ point game of the season. It’s a big loss not having him on the floor for this game and Utah’s league-leading offense should suffer as a result. I certainly don’t expect the Jazz to get to the free throw line 37 times like they did vs. the Mavs. The team also averages fewer points per game on the road than it does at home. 

But Utah’s defense actually gets better on their travels, holding teams to 102.5 PPG. As a result, Jazz road games see about eight fewer total points per game scored than their home games. The defensive effort will be needed here against a Spurs team that just had its highest scoring first half and game of the season last night. But again, it is unlikely that SA can even come close to replicating that kind of offensive effort here. They too are without their starting PG (Murray) and the Under is 7-3 the L10 times the Spurs have been in the second night of a back to back.. Both teams are due to “cool off”. 10* Under Jazz/Spurs

10* Under Mavericks/Jazz (10:35 ET): Rolling into XMas night with a 22-9 overall record, Utah is pretty clearly one of the three top teams in the NBA right now, alongside Phoenix and Golden State. While the Jazz may trail both those teams in the standings, they are actually level with the Warriors for the best point differential in the league and have an ever-so-slightly better net efficiency rating. I’ve got them at #1 in my own personal power ratings. The most efficient offensive team in the league (and highest scoring), the Jazz are big favorites here against the short-handed Mavericks. But it won’t take many points to win this game. You’re going to want to go with the Under here.

The Under has hit in 9 of Dallas’ last 11 games. Part of that is the Mavericks play at the slowest pace in the entire league. Fewer possessions equal fewer points and that’s the name of the game here. But the main reason the Mavs will look to “shorten” the game is because Luka Doncic (and likely many others) remain out because of COVID. The team could manage only 95 points last time out as they suffered a seven-point loss to Milwaukee (who was without Giannis Antetokounmpo). In that game, the Mavs had five players suit up that were under 10-day contracts. Three of the top four scorers are out. Doncic won’t even travel with the team XMas Day. 

So I’d say it’s a safe assumption that Dallas won’t be doing a ton of scoring on Saturday. Only twice in their last 11 games have they scored more than 105 in a game and those were against Charlotte and Minnesota, two of the worst defensive teams. The key to this Under then rests on the Mavs’ ability to slow down the Utah offense. One good thing for the Mavs is that I don’t think the Jazz are going to shoot as well as they did on Thursday vs. Minnesota when they made 53.3% of their FG attempts. A natural decline from that number will help the underdog, who is not only 9-2 Under their L11 games overall, but also 35-17 Under the L52 times taking points. 10* Under Mavericks/Jazz

8* New York (12:05 ET): It seems as if EVERY team in the league is currently being hit hard by COVID-19 related absences, but the Hawks and Knicks are both dealing with some SERIOUS attrition heading into XMas Day. Atlanta was already without SEVEN players due to health & safety protocols before both Cam Reddish and Delon Wright suffered sprained ankles on Thursday. Somehow Atlanta still managed to upset Philadelphia, 98-96, as Joel Embiid missed a potential game-tying shot at the buzzer. But of the starting five from last year’s run to the Eastern Conference Finals, John Collins is the lone starter left for the Hawks right now. The most prominent absence is Trae Young, who is not expected to play here.

Not to be outdone, the Knicks have five players in quarantine and Derrick Rose is out due to an ankle injury. While the Hawks managed to somehow win their last game, the Knicks were not as fortunate, losing 124-117 to Washington despite 44 points from Kemba Walker. It was an inability to get stops that doomed New York on Thursday night as they let the Wizards shoot 56% from the field. The loss was the Knicks’ ninth in the last 12 games as this continues to be a very disappointing season with the team now four games below .500 and outside of a play-in tournament spot. Remember that last year saw NY finish fourth in the Eastern Conference, only to be eliminated in the first round of the playoffs - by Atlanta. 

So neither team’s lineup on Saturday is going to resemble what we saw in last year’s playoffs. But that doesn’t mean that the Knicks won’t still be out for revenge. Yes, they already did beat the Hawks 99-90 (in Atlanta) last month. But a win on XMas would be an even bigger deal. Walker has shown himself to be capable of carrying the scoring load for New York. I don’t know who can do that now for the Hawks, who did beat the Sixers, but also lost to the Magic the previous day. In both games, the Hawks scored just 98 points. They are 0-3 SU/ATS this season coming off a SU win as an underdog. The Knicks should also defend better here than they did vs. the Wizards the other night. 8* New York

8* Over Thunder/Suns (9:05 ET): This may surprise you given how I spoke of the Thunder in yesterday’s (successful) Under play. While it’s still true that Oklahoma City is the lowest scoring team in the NBA, they have now topped their season average in four straight games, which includes three consecutive straight up victories over teams that were in the playoffs last year. I expect the Thunder to shoot a lot better from three-point range tonight than they did Wednesday vs. Denver (23.5%) and the team they face is more than capable of putting a big number on the board. So Over is the call on Thursday. 

Phoenix has shown no real signs of regressing after last year’s run to the NBA Finals. They did start the season 1-3, but since then have gone 24-2 SU including an 18-game win streak. The Suns easily beat the Lakers on Tuesday, 108-90, for their fourth straight victory. As you can see, that was a relatively low-scoring victory as the Suns shot below 30% from three-point range. (They were coming off a game where they shot 56.8% overall and scored 137 points). At the defensive end, the Suns were even stingier though, holding the Lakers to 39.1% overall including 7 of 35 from three-point range.

Don’t be surprised if/when the three-pointers are flying (and going in) tonight. Phoenix shoots 37.4% from behind the arc at home, so I’d say they are a lock to shoot better tonight than they did vs. the Lakers. They are averaging 113.5 PPG at home and that’s a number I believe they can exceed here. If so, we’re only going to need 100 from OKC and given their recent form, that seems “doable” as well. When in the second night of a back to back, the Thunder are allowing over 120 PPG this season. The Over is 20-8 in Phoenix’s last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and OKC is 5-9 SU on the road this year. 8* Over Thunder/Suns

10* Under Nuggets/Thunder (8:05 ET): Over their last six games, the Nuggets have basically averaged almost 120 points per game. Not convinced they can continue to maintain that kind of average moving forward, especially because they are averaging only 106.8 PPG for the season. So look for a decrease in scoring from Denver tonight. Those last six games have all gone Over the total as have 13 of their last 14 games. But tonight they are facing the lowest scoring team in the entire NBA. Take the Under.

There’s definitely no shot of Denver matching its scoring output from the last game when they went to Atlanta and shot 58.1% overall from the field, including 17 made three-pointers. The Nuggets currently have a number of players dealing with injuries, so it was definitely surprising to see them “go off” like that on Friday. By the way, the Nuggets haven’t played since Friday. They were supposed to play Brooklyn Sunday, but that had to be postponed. A lengthy layoff could lead to some “rust” and a slow start at the offensive end tonight. 

Oklahoma City is coming off B2B wins, which is a rare occurrence for them. They’ve upset the Clippers and Grizzlies over the last few days. Both games stayed Under. As mentioned above, the Thunder are the lowest scoring team in the NBA. They don’t even average 100 PPG. Neither of these teams like to play at a particularly fast pace, so we don’t have to worry about that. Denver is 12-5 Under its previous 17 games as a road favorite. 10* Under Nuggets/Thunder

8* Georgia (7:00 ET): Georgia is having a tough season. They’ve already lost two starters to season-ending injuries. The end result is a 5-6 SU record coming into Wednesday. But the Bulldogs did win earlier in the week, beating Western Carolina 85-79 on Monday. They failed to cover though as 11.5 point chalk. The pointspread has certainly been unkind to UGA so far this season as they are just 4-7 at the betting window and that includes a 2-0 start to the year. But it's a small number at home tonight and I’m laying it. 

East Tennessee State comes into Athens with a 7-5 overall record (straight up). But they are coming off a loss, 79-64 at UNC Asheville on Saturday. That was actually the second straight loss for the Buccaneers as they went down at the hands of North Carolina A&T (as 12-point favorites!) last week. And Saturday’s result also dropped them to 0-4 SU this year in “true” road games. It would certainly appear as if ETSU is getting a bit too much credit from oddsmakers here, probably due to the Georgia injuries. 

Again, those injuries didn’t prevent the Bulldogs from winning on Monday and they also put up 85 points in the process. East Tennessee State likes to play slow, so if Georgia can push the tempo, they should be in good shape tonight. There are still four players on the team averaging in double figures. The key here for Georgia will be improving their three-point shooting. They’re at just 30.7% for the season, which is bad enough that you have to figure they almost HAVE to improve. 8* Georgia

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): This is an immediate revenge situation for Dallas, who lost to Minnesota 111-105 on Sunday night. Ironically enough, I had the T’wolves minus the points in that game. But now it’s time to go the “other way,” even though the Mavs look to be short-handed going into the rematch. Luka Doncic is expected to miss this game while Kristaps Porzingis is questionable. Several other players have made their way onto the COVID-19 list. But we’ve seen “strange things” (i.e. wins) all season from these teams dealing with absences. I look for the other players to step it up on Tuesday night. 

Minnesota has now won four in a row and passed Dallas in the Western Conference standings. With the West seemingly so depth-shy this season and the advent of a play-in round, this would seem to be an ideal year for the T’wolves to make a rare playoff appearance. But a couple things to keep in mind here - they are dealing with a couple players on the COVID list and even with Dallas being short-handed on Sunday, the T’wolves could only win by six at home. They trailed going into the fourth quarter. 

Poor shooting doomed the Mavericks in the 4Q and losing Porzingis to injury didn’t help matters. But at home, you’ve got to expect they’ll shoot better than 43.9% (including just 12 of 41 from 3-pt range) as they did on Sunday. The combo of Hardaway Jr, Finney-Smith and Brunson combined for 69 points last time out. Like I’ve said before, it also seems as if SOMEONE steps up in these situations. Minnesota has been a road favorite only one time previous to this all season. 10* Dallas

10* Lehigh (7:00 ET): It’s not been a positive start to the season for Lehigh as the Mountain Hawks have just one win, which came back on Nov 23 against Colombia. Yet they are still the favorites here, which should tell you all you “need to know” about Albany. Now Lehigh has failed each of their last four tries as chalk, losing three of those games outright. But I look for this one to “be the charm” as they’ve been off for 17 days while Albany just played on Saturday. Lay the points. 

Albany has not exactly been a “cash-cow” by any means. They are just 3-8 ATS, not to mention 3-8 straight up as well. The Great Danes just lost 66-58 to Niagara as 5.5 point dogs. That followed two wins, both of which were by four points or less. In fact, the team’s three wins this year have been by a total of just seven points! So this could pretty easily be an 0-11 team coming into tonight. They have just one road win all year.

When breaking this matchup down, I simply *have* to come back to the massive edge in rest that Lehigh has. Since the Mountain Hawks last played, Albany has been on the court four different times, three of those coming over the previous 10 days. Scoring has been a real problem all season for the Great Danes, even more so than for Lehigh, as the visitors come in averaging a paltry 57.8 PPG on the season and even fewer than that over the L5 games. 10* Lehigh

8* Utah (9:05 ET): The Jazz have now suffered back to back upset losses here at home, first to the Spurs (128-126) and then to the Wizards (109-103). Those games took place Friday and Saturday. I faded them against the Wizards as it was a large spread in the second night of a back to back. Still, it was a bit shocking to see the Jazz lose the game outright. This is a team that had previously won eight in a row before the B2B setbacks. They rank 1st overall in my power ratings, having outscored opponents by 10.5 points per game this season. Look for a strong statement to be made Monday against a road-weary opponent. 

Charlotte finds itself in the same situation Utah was in Saturday, that being the second game of a back to back. The only difference is that the Hornets are on the road. It’s not “just” the second night of a back to back either; it’s also the team’s fifth consecutive road game and third in four days. Of the Hornets’ first 32 games, 20 have come away from home where they are giving up 119.3 PPG. It was a blowout loss last night in Phoenix, 137-106, as the team has allowed an average of 124 points its last five games. For the season, Charlotte ranks dead last in the league in defensive efficiency and points allowed. 

That’s a problem when facing a Utah team that is #1 in offensive efficiency and points scored. Talk about a mismatch. The Jazz rested PG Mike Conley against the Wizards, which partially explains the loss. He’ll be back on the floor tonight and the team should shoot a lot better than it did on Saturday. The Jazz are 20-6 SU this season with Conley in the lineup. While this is a larger number than I typically lay in a NBA game, Charlotte is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS  when playing without rest and going from Phoenix to Utah is the toughest spot they’re likely to be in all season. Lay the number. 8* Utah

8* Notre Dame (8:00 ET): The Fighting Irish have not had much luck at the betting window this season (just 1-7 ATS), but a recent upset of Kentucky (lone ATS win) shows what they are capable of doing. The Irish gave a rude welcome to UK here in South Bend, winning 66-62 as a 4.5-point underdog. Sadly, they couldn’t follow up, losing 64-56 to Indiana (in Indianapolis) in the Crossroads Classic. But that was a close game most of the way and the final score wasn’t really indicative of how ND played. A much easier opponent here should result in a big win on Monday. Lay the points. 

Western Michigan has the same number of wins (4) as Notre Dame, but two of their wins have been against non-DI opponents, including the last game - a 67-56 win over Aquinas. The other two were against teams ranked outside the top 250 in my power ratings. Seemingly even more pertinent is the fact that all six of the Broncos’ losses have been by double digits and by an average of 25 PPG. They were absolutely hammered in losses to Michigan State (90-46) and Iowa (109-61), which isn’t all that surprising. But even the likes of Detroit (83-64) and Saginaw Valley (80-63) were able to hammer them. Saginaw Valley isn’t even a D-I school! 

Notre Dame has struggled to make shots this season, but that should change here against a WMU team that is one of the worst in the country defensively. The Broncos are 343rd in the country (out of 358 teams) in defensive efficiency. With ACC play looming, the Fighting Irish could really use a big win here and then Wednesday over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. I think they’ll take care of business tonight as the three-pointers will start to fall against a team that struggles to defend from behind the arc. ND only allows 58.3 PPG at home. WMU allows 86.8 PPG on the road. 8* Notre Dame

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The Timberwolves have made the playoffs just one time since 2004 (when Kevin Garnett skipped town!) and that was four years ago when they made a first round exit. The Western Conference is shaping up to be pretty weak this season (at least much weaker than usual) and with the play-in round now “being a thing,” 2021-22 seems like a real opportunity for the T’wolves to get into the postseason. They enter Sunday with a 14-15 SU record, good enough for ninth place in the Conference. 

While still a game below .500, the T’wolves have won three straight. They’ve beaten the Nuggets, Blazers and Lakers, all of whom were playoff teams a year ago. Friday was a somewhat convincing 110-92 win over the Lakers here at home. The Lakers were dealing with plenty of COVID-related absences, but still had LeBron James. Taking advantage of Anthony Davis’ absence, Minnesota dominated on the glass with a 61-36 rebounding edge, including 15-1 at the offensive end.

The Mavericks’ last game was a loss to the Lakers (in overtime). They will again be without Luka Doncic tonight as well as several other players because of COVID. The Mavs just really haven’t impressed me this year and are deserved underdogs in this game. Only three teams - OKC, Orlando and Detroit - are averaging fewer points per game. Karl-Anthony Towns (24.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG) will be the best player in this game and he’s wearing a T’wolves jersey. 8* Minnesota

8* Sacramento (6:05 ET): Off a huge win in Utah Friday night, San Antonio looks for just their second win streak of the season tonight in the capital city of California. From November 26th through December 4th, the Spurs won four consecutive games. But, as I just alluded to, that is their lone win streak of the season. At no other point have they won consecutive games. They’ve followed up recent wins over Denver and New Orleans with double digit losses to Denver and Charlotte. I’ll look for “usual form” to hold here as this is a rare time that the Spurs are favored on the road. Take the points.

Sacramento is actually one game ahead of San Antonio in the Western Conference standings. This despite the Kings losing four of their previous five games, including a 124-105 setback at the hands of red-hot Memphis on Friday night. While playing extremely short-handed right now (COVID), Sacramento did open up a 15-point lead over the Grizzlies in the first half. They just couldn’t hold it, even though all five starters finished in double figures. 

The Spurs only have five road wins all year and tonight marks just the third time they will be favored away from home. Most will look at the Kings as “sitting ducks” here due to the abundance of unavailable players and their head coach also being out. But I don’t agree with them getting more than a couple points in this situation. San Antonio only won by two on Friday and has been outscored this season. Recently, we’ve seen a lot of short-handed teams win in the NBA. 8* Sacramento

10* Colgate (2:00 ET): Here we go back to the well, playing against Monmouth. The Hawks are a positively stunning 11-0 ATS this season. They are obviously the top spread team in the country. Perhaps most impressive of all is that Monmouth is coming off a six-game stretch on the road where they went 5-1 straight up. They are 9-2 SU on the year, despite playing only two home games. But I view Sunday as a “tricky” spot for the favorites, who have been underdogs in most of their games this season. Take the points! 

Colgate has not been nearly as successful as Monmouth at the betting window. The Raiders are 1-5 SU and ATS their last six games and coming off an 82-64 loss at St. John’s last Sunday. A full week to prepare for this game should help, however. When comparing these two teams’ ATS records, something to be aware of is the fact Colgate has been favored in more games this season. This will be only the 4th time that Colgate has been taking points. They covered the first two times, including an outright win (as 11.5-pt dogs) at Syracuse. Last Sunday’s loss to St. John’s was the only time the Raiders didn’t cover as pups.

Monmouth has played a lot of close games. Eventually, one of them has to not go their way, at least at the pay window. Having played six straight road games over the L3 weeks is something that you have to figure “catches up with them” at some point. The Hawks have failed to score 70 points in four of their last six games. As an underdog, that’s not a problem. But this will be just the third time that Monmouth is favored by more than three points. 10* Colgate

10* Washington (9:05 ET): Utah is very clearly one of the top teams in the NBA right now. I’ve got them rated second in my own personal power rankings, only behind Golden State. But the team that finished first in the Western Conference a season ago saw its eight-game win streak come to an end last night with a 128-126 loss to San Antonio. Now the Jazz must immediately turn around and face the Wizards and they are being asked to lay a big number in the process. I’ll take the points in this one. 

Washington is clearly struggling right now as they’ve won just one of their last eight contests and that was by only three points, in overtime, against a terrible Detroit team. The Wiz did not cover the spread in that win, nor have they covered in any of their last seven losses. But this is still a .500 team (15-15 SU) that’s tied for seventh in the Eastern Conference. You’ve got to figure they’re going to be desperate for a win tonight and while they may not get it, keeping this one within single digits certainly seems like a reasonable goal. 

The situation clearly favors Washington as they were off last night. Now they were blown out, in Phoenix, two nights ago (lost 118-98 as nine-point dogs). But this season has seen the Wizards go 6-2 ATS when off a game where they failed to score 100 points. They are also 19-8 ATS in that very situation the L3 seasons. While the Wiz were blown out by 25 at home by the Jazz last week, they did beat them in BOTH meetings last season. 10* Washington

10* Canisius (5:00 ET): Canisius is just 2-9 straight up entering this game, but it’s notable that they are getting double digits here. The reason that’s notable is because the only two games the Golden Griffins have covered this season came as DD dogs. Those covers came at Miami (FL) and St. Bonaventure. This evening marks the first time all season that Canisius is a DD dog at home. They are 0-7 ATS L7 lined games and 0-8 ATS overall this season when NOT getting double digits. But due to the poor ATS record, the oddsmakers are being too generous here. Take the points. 

The team Canisius is hosting, Buffalo, is 6-1 ATS and has just one loss by more than three points (and that was to Michigan). But off a 10-day layoff, the Bulls could be prone for a letdown Saturday afternoon. Prior to the extended time off, UB pulled a minor upset, going to Western Kentucky and winning 77-67 as a three-point dog. Tonight marks the first time that the Bulls are laying points in a “true” road game. Previously, they were favored at neutral sites against SF Austin St (and lost outright) and Illinois State (covered, but also allowed 90 points). 

I realize that, on paper, Buffalo looks to have a rather sizable edge in this matchup. But again, don’t discount the fact that this is a large spread for the Bulls to be laying after such an extended layoff. They are just 3-3 SU away from home this season. This is a local rivalry, which likely means more to Canisius, who has beaten Buffalo just one time since 2014. But none of the previous six meetings were decided by more than 15 points and two of the games went into overtime. 10* Canisius

8* St. John’s (12:00 ET): The Johnnies snapped a six-game ATS losing streak last Sunday, beating Colgate 82-64 as 7.5-point home chalk. They allowed just 29 points in the 2H, which was Colgate’s season-low for a half. But it’s the offense that usually makes the headlines for the Red Storm. Led by Julian Champagnie, the team comes in averaging 85.2 PPG and that number is way too much for an offensively inept Pitt team to compete here. I’m laying the points in this matchup of former conference rivals. 

These programs have not met since 2012-13, when Pitt left the Big East for the ACC. St. John’s probably wishes they could face Pitt more often, at least in recent times. Going back to last year, the Panthers are just 5-15 SU their L20 games. That includes a 3-7 start to this season as they’ve suffered double digit losses to the likes of The Citadel and UMBC. Last time out, the Panthers fell at home to Monmouth, 56-52 as a 1-point home dog. They trailed in that game by as many as 17 points. 

With the start of conference play looming, normally I might be a bit “gun-shy” about laying so many points. But St. John’s full focus will be on this game after it was announced Monday’s Big East opener (vs. Seton Hall) has been cancelled due to COVID (outbreak is with SH) and the Red Storm will be awarded a win via forfeit! The Red Storm are simply too strong at the offensive end for a team like Pitt that is last in the ACC in both scoring (60.5 PPG) and FG% (41.7). St. John’s likes to play fast (9th in adjusted tempo), which is also a problem for Pitt. 8* St. John’s

10* Sacramento (10:05 ET): The Kings pulled off a much-needed win on Wednesday, beating the slumping Wizards by a score of 119-105. Sacramento shot better than they have in awhile, making 54.9% of their FG attempts. Despite being short-handed and without their coach (COVID protocols), the Kings used a big 4Q (outscored the Wiz 35-19) to pull away. There is a concern that this game may not get played due to the Kings’ COVID outbreak. But if it is played, I like them plus the points. 

I have been positively STUNNED over how Memphis has played without Ja Morant. They’ve won 9 of 10 games without their superstar. On Wednesday, the Grizzlies went to Portland and held the Blazers to 37.8% shooting in a 113-103 win. Their first game without Morant was, ironically enough, against Sacramento. The Grizz won 128-101 as a four-point favorite, but that was at home. The Kings were also coming off a triple overtime win over the Lakers, so it was a bad spot. 

Certainly, I acknowledge that the COVID outbreak doesn’t exactly make this the most desirable spot to take Sacramento. But they are at home where they’ve won three straight and - generally speaking - are a much better team. Memphis, despite a 7-5 SU record on the road, has been outscored in those games. I just can’t see them continuing to win like this without Morant. The Kings had a horrible shooting night when they last faced Memphis. Expect them to shoot a whole lot better tonight. 10* Sacramento

10* San Diego State (10:00 ET): Let’s head to the West Coast for tonight’s 10* offering. This game between St. Mary’s and San Diego State is being played in Phoenix, AZ as part of the Jerry Colangelo Classic. I like the spot for SDSU; not just because they’re getting points, but also because they come in well-rested. The last time they took the court was 12/8 when they defeated CS-Fullerton by a score of 66-56. 

These are two defensive-minded teams. St. Mary’s gives up only 57.6 PPG while SDSU isn’t too far behind that, allowing only 59.2 PPG. The Aztecs have lost only three times this season -  to BYU, USC and Michigan. All three of those teams have spent time in the Top 25 this year. I just don’t see St. Mary’s as being quite at that level. Something to keep in mind is that the defensive numbers would be even more even if you exclude the Gaels holding Stanislaus State, a non-board team, to 39 points on Tuesday. 

St. Mary’s has actually played two games since SDSU last took the court. Besides beating up on a “little guy” earlier this week, the Gaels also crushed UCSB 80-59 last weekend. But that was at home. Note the previous two games, both on the road, saw SMU struggle. They barely got by Utah State (won by 2) and then lost by 16 to Colorado State. Notable is that both of those teams hail from the Mountain West. I look for the Aztecs to win a low-scoring game on Friday. 10* San Diego State

8* Over Bucks/Pelicans (8:05 ET): Milwaukee had seven players missing from the lineup on Wednesday, one of them being Giannis Antetokounmpo. But they still defeated Indiana 114-99 for their 13th win in the last 16 games. Still short-handed, the reigning NBA Champs now head to the Big Easy to face a Pelicans team that is at the opposite end of the standings. However, NO is off a very exciting win where Devonte’ Graham made a 61-foot shot at the buzzer to beat Oklahoma City 113-110 on Wednesday. 

The Pelicans’ season got off to a terrible 3-16 start, but they have battled back to win six of their last 11 games including the thriller 48 hours ago. Zion Williamson hasn’t played a minute this season. As for the catalyst of the recent “turnaround,” you’ve got to point in the direction of Brandon Ingram, who averages a team-high 23.4 points per game after averaging 27.9 over the last eight games. 

The Bucks could get Kris Middleton back for tonight’s game, but regardless of that I like this game to go Over the total. We saw what Jrue Holliday can do on Wednesday when he scored 26 points and had a season-high 14 assists. Something to keep in mind with all these absences going around the NBA is that teams typically still find a way to score. New Orleans is on a 13-3 Over run when facing teams with winning records. The Over is 23-9 the L32 meetings between these teams, including 5-1 L6 here in NO. 8* Over Bucks/Pelicans

8* NC State (6:30 ET): This is a neutral site game, being played in Charlotte, NC. Taking a look at NC State, whose three losses have been to Oklahoma State, Louisville and Purdue, I’m not sure they should be the underdog here. I realize they are just 2-8 ATS, but the Wolfpack have gone off as the favorite for most of those games. They are 1-6 ATS as a favorite so far this season, including 0-6 when laying seven or more. But this time, we don’t have to worry about laying any points, do we? 

Richmond is on a three-game win streak, having beaten Wofford, Northern Iowa and Toledo. Prior to that though, the Spiders had lost four of six. It was a narrow win on Sunday at home over Toledo, 72-69, where the Spiders did not cover the 9.5-point spread. In fact, they scored a season-low 24 points in the 1st half and found themselves trailing by 17! Honestly, I have no idea how Richmond was able to come back and win that game.

As for NC State, they took Purdue to OT on Sunday. It was a crushing defeat considering the Wolfpack never trailed in regulation to a team that was ranked #1 in the country at the time. NC State’s only other two losses were both by six points or less, so they’ve really yet to play a “bad game” all season. This despite not shooting the ball all that well. But the Wolfpack are top five in the country in FT attempts (23.9 per game) and are an excellent offensive rebounding team. Considering that NC State probably should have won its last game while Richmond should have probably lost theirs, I’ll call for things to “even out” here on Friday. Take the points. 8* NC State

10* Over Knicks/Rockets (8:05 ET): Houston had been surprising a lot of people of late, winning 8 of 10 games straight up while also going 8-1-1 ATS in the process. However, last night they ran into an even hotter Cleveland team, who slapped them with a 124-89 beatdown. That was more reminiscent of the Rockets’ 1-16 start to the season, which saw them get held under 100 points nine times. But I’m expecting a better effort tonight at the offensive end against the Knicks.

New York was one of last year’s surprise teams. But as I’ve previously written, they’ve slipped considerably to start 2021-22. Last season saw them lead the league in 3PT% defense, which was not going to be repeated this year and sure enough opponents are hitting 35.4% against the Knicks from behind the arc. Last time out, NY saw history made at their expense with Steph Curry setting a new NBA record for most career three-pointers made. The Knicks lost that game 105-96 as they could only shoot 36.1% from the field.

I am expecting both teams’ offensive numbers to pick up tonight. Houston is pretty bad defensively, giving up 113.0 PPG for the year. Three of their last four opponents have scored more than 120. So you’ve got to like the Knicks’ chances of putting up a high number this evening. Julius Randle had a 25-point second half vs. the Warriors, so he's the player to watch. I know the Rockets are playing short-handed (top four scorers were all out last night), but this is the NBA and teams almost always find ways to score. The Over is 6-0 when Houston is in the second night of a back to back. 10* Over Knicks/Rockets

8* Tulsa (8:00 ET): What a strange season it’s been so far for Alcorn State. The Braves are 1-8 straight up but 8-1 against the spread. So while they're losing, it’s almost never by as much as the oddsmakers anticipate. I think that interesting dichotomy ends tonight with a visit to Tulsa. Note that there have been only two spreads shorter than this one in Alcorn State games this season. One of those was the lone game they failed to cover, an 85-64 loss at Tulane as 13-point underdogs. By the way, this will also be the 10th consecutive “true” road game for Alcorn State and they aren’t even close to being done with their “travels.” 

Alcorn State’s last three games have resulted in losses by 21, 32 and 19 points. So they’re losing by an average of 24 PPG. The alma mater of the late, great Steve “Air” McNair averages only 60 PPG and they haven’t topped 64 in any of their last eight contests. In terms of efficiency, they are in the bottom 30 in the country at the offensive end. Earlier, I mentioned the cacophony of road games that the Braves have been playing this season. They’ve still got SIX more to go after this one, including a visit to #1 Baylor next Monday, which may have the player’s attention more so than this game does. 

Tulsa isn’t going to pass up this opportunity to beat up on a road-weary opponent. The Golden Hurricane just ended a three-game losing streak last Saturday, beating Southern Illinois 69-65 as a three-point favorite. I know there have been some disappointing showings as a favorite previously, but Tulsa also has pulled upset wins over Oregon State and Rhode Island. They hold teams to a very respectable average (63.3 PPG) here at home and with Alcorn State shooting just 38.0% on the year, I feel that this is going to be one of the Golden Hurricane’s better defensive efforts all season. Thus, lay the points. 8* Tulsa

8* Under Hornets/Spurs (8:35 ET): San Antonio has a real “imbalance” when it comes to Over/Unders at home vs. on the road. The Over is 10-1 so far in Spurs’ home games. But when the team hits the road, they are 10-1 Under. They are at home tonight, facing a Charlotte team whose games - on average - are the highest scoring in the NBA (231.5 PPG). This has led the oddsmakers to set the highest O/U line for any Spurs’ game this season. While there is an inherent risk playing the Under with the Hornets team, I believe that’s the way to go tonight.

While San Antonio has the highest Over rate in the league at home, Charlotte is #2. But this is obviously a road game for the Hornets and the Over is more “modest” 9-8 when they are away. The Hornets had gone Over in eight straight games overall before losing 120-96 in Dallas on Monday. What’s key to note with Charlotte right now is that they have been playing short-handed due to COVID protocols. Initially, they stayed competitive, but then we saw what happened last time out.

After a poor start to the season, the Spurs have been better of late. They are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS in their L9 games. They last played on Sunday when they turned in a solid defensive effort, holding New Orleans to 97 points on 42.6% shooting. That was just the second Spurs’ home game to go Under this season. The fact this is the highest O/U line for any San Antonio game this year is notable. Will their starting five combine to score 88 points again, as they did in the last game? Unlikely. 8* Under Hornets/Spurs

8* Indiana (8:00 ET): The Pacers need this game more than the Bucks. Indiana (despite a positive point differential for the year) currently sits in 13th place in the East with a 12-15 overall record. There are six teams ahead of them with worse YTD point differentials. A case can definitely be made that the Pacers "ought" to be higher in the standings right now.

Milwaukee is doing well (18-11, 3rd in the East) but they will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight (COVID-19). Giannis isn't the only unavailable player. Six Bucks players have been ruled out for this game and that doesn't even include Kris Middleton (knee), who is listed as questionable. It's going to be a real "skeleton crew" out there tonight for the Bucks.

This just seems like the perfect opportunity for Indiana to end its 0-6 ATS run in Milwaukee?  8* Indiana

10* Over Middle Tennessee/Ole Miss (8:30 ET): Though the last six Ole Miss games have all stayed Under the total, I like this one to go Over. The Rebels are coming off back to back horrendous shooting efforts. Despite beating Memphis 67-63 on December 4th, the Rebels shot just 35.3% in that game. Then, in Atlanta over the weekend, it was a disastrous performance with 27.4% shooting in a 71-48 loss to Western Kentucky. But now Ole Miss is back in Oxford (where they are 5-0 and averaging 78.0 PPG). Expect the scoring to increase in this one. 

The Rebels better be scoring tonight. Because they are facing a Middle Tennessee team that comes in averaging 80.1 PPG. The Blue Raiders are 8-2 straight up and there’s been just one game all season where they failed to score at least 71 points. In the last game, MTSU went to Tenn-Martin and came out on top 84-75. That was actually the second win over the Skyhawks this month. They won 73-61 in Murfreesboro back on the 1st. In between, there was a loss at Murray State where the Blue Raiders surrendered 93 points (no overtime!). 

Neither of these teams are all that efficient on offense, but Middle Tennessee likes to “play fast” and thus there should be plenty of possessions in tonight’s contest. Again, the real key is that I expect Ole Miss to shoot MUCH better than they have in their last two games. The Over is 5-0 the last five times Middle Tennessee has been an underdog, four of those games coming on the road. A huge key to the Blue Raiders’ success is that they get to the free throw line 22 times per game, more than any other Conference USA squad. 10* Over Middle Tennessee/Ole Miss

10* Portland (10:05 ET): This game is on TNT. Phoenix comes in off a loss, just its second in the last 22 games, as they fell 111-95 at the Clippers last night. It should be noted that it was also the Suns’ second loss in the last four games (after a franchise-record 18-game win streak) and second straight loss on the road. (They were beaten 118-96 at Golden State on 12/3). The Suns should obviously be respected, but I think they’re “due” to drop another one tonight in Portland. 

It should be noted that the loss to the Warriors was the last time Phoenix found itself in the second night of a back to back. The same situation is a whole lot worse tonight because the team is without both Devin Booker and DeAndre Ayton. Without rest, the Suns have NOT performed well this season, going 1-4 ATS and being outscored by 7.6 PPG. While the Suns are a top three team in my power ratings, I don’t think they’re quite as good as either the Warriors or Jazz. Point differential & net efficiency backs my assertion up, so look for the Suns to fall behind those two aforementioned Western Conference powers in the coming days/weeks. 

The Blazers are hoping to avoid what would be a fifth consecutive home loss here. Such a streak is rather odd considering they were 10-1 SU to start the year at the Moda Center. Damian Lillard is back and had 24 points with a season-high 11 rebounds in Sunday’s 116-111 loss to Minnesota. I expect Lillard to shoot better tonight than he did vs. the T’wolves (5 of 17). But the most convincing thing here about Portland is that they’ve already wiped the court with Phoenix once this season, winning 134-105 back on Oct 23rd. That was here at home. It won’t be that lopsided this time, but take the points. 10* Portland

8* Houston (8:00 ET): The 14th ranked Cougars are coming off a one-point loss at Alabama (who is now the #6 ranked team in the country), but I still believe Kelvin Sampson’s team to be one of the finest in the entire country. Remember that this was a Final Four team last season. My power ratings still consider them to be a top four team right now. Houston’s only two losses have been by a combined three points and it could certainly be argued they were the victim of a bad call in Tuscaloosa Saturday night. On the final possession, it looked as if Alabama got away with goaltending. 

So now the Cougars return home to face Louisiana. Expect them to take no mercy on their visitors. The Ragin Cajuns enter this game with a 5-4 SU record and are also off a loss, 78-69 to Louisiana Tech. That loss came despite a career game from Jordan Brown (30 points) and La Tech shooting just 19% from three-point range. I think it also bears mentioning that Louisiana lost outright (as a 14.5-point favorite) earlier in the year to Jackson State. They’ve been outscored by an average of 18.3 points in the L3 road games and none of those three opponents were as strong as this one is. 

Look for Houston to feast off turnovers in this game. The defense forces a TO on 25.2% of all possessions, which is top 25 in the country. Meanwhile, Louisiana is among the sloppiest teams in the country, turning it over on 22 percent of all offensive possessions. The Cougars are 6-0 SU at home, winning by an average of 33.5 PPG. Off the loss to Alabama, where they shot poorly, Houston will have a “take no prisoners” approach to this game. Lay the points. 8* Houston

8* Over Warriors/Knicks (7:35 ET): So, it is a virtual lock that tonight Steph Curry will break Ray Allen’s NBA record for most three-pointers made. Curry could not have asked for a bigger stage as the Warriors will visit Madison Square Garden to play the Knicks on TNT. With history about to be made, expect the Warriors (Curry in particular) to come out firing. As a team, they were just 8 of 30 from three-point range in last night’s 102-100 win over Indiana. Curry was 5 of 15 and now needs only three more threes to surpass Allen. He’ll make a lot more than three tonight as it should be a big offensive night. 

The Knicks were a surprise team last year, finishing 41-31, good for 4th place in the Western Conference. A big reason for their success was leading the league in 3-pt FG% defense. They haven’t been nearly as good this year at defending the three-point arc and as a result, the Knicks enter tonight’s showdown with a 12-15 SU record and are just 12th in the Eastern Conference. Having lost three straight and six of their last seven games, there’s much work to be done in the Big Apple. 

I do think the home team will have a bigger offensive night than expected here. Golden State was fortunate that Indiana shot only 23.3% from three last night. New York, who shoots 36.0% from three for the year, should do a lot better than that. I know the Knicks are off B2B sub-100 point games and the Warriors have been an “Under machine” thus far. (Under is 20-7 in all GS games). But even if the Knicks only score 100 here, I think it’s reasonable to expect 110+ from the Warriors and that means the game goes Over. 8* Over Warriors/Knicks

8* LA Monroe (7:30 ET): Kind of “scratching my head” here as to why LA Monroe is getting double digits here. I’m assuming that the blowout losses the Warhawks suffered early in the season are still on the oddsmakers’ mind. But those were to the likes of LSU and Auburn, two of the best teams in the entire country. Here they are facing a SF Austin team that has fallen off a bit from the years (2014-18) where they were an NCAA Tournament regular. Even though they are 7-2 SU, the Lumberjacks shouldn’t be laying this many points tonight. 

This is a significant season in Nacogdoches as SFA (along with three other Texas schools) moved from the Southland Conference to the WAC. The move came on the heels of the program having to vacate some 100+ wins from its “heyday” due to eligibility errors. As the season moves on, it will be interesting to see how the Lumberjacks perform in their new conference. They’ve yet to play a single WAC game and the majority of their opponents have been “also-rans” (including three non-DI opponents). SFA did just beat Liberty 61-53, as 2.5-point dog, over the weekend. 

But I think that minor upset should result in a bit of a letdown tonight. SFA was able to defeat Liberty thanks to much better shooting from three-point range (53.3% to 22.2%) and a significant edge in FT attempts. They can’t count on that happening again. LA Monroe has built up some confidence with three consecutive wins and the Warhawks now average 81.3 PPG, tied for 32nd most in the country! My power ratings indicate this number should be a LOT lower and I’ll trust those numbers by taking the points. 8* LA Monroe

10* Yale (7:00 ET): The big “story” coming into this game is that Monmouth is a perfect 10-0 against the spread to start the season. What makes that start all the more remarkable is that all but two of the contests have been “true” road games. Only twice have the Hawks lost straight up  - by two at Charlotte and by five at St. John’s. So, no matter what way you slice it, it’s been an incredible start by the MAAC contingent. But you know that eventually they are going to fail to cover a spread. I believe tonight is that night. This will be Monmouth’s sixth straight game on the road (second in three days) and they are facing a team that was the preseason favorite to win its conference. Take the points here. 

Now, with a 6-6 SU record, Yale has failed to live up to its advanced billing. The Bulldogs have dropped a couple close ones, losing by three to Southern Utah and by four to Stony Brook, but in their five games as underdogs they’ve lost four times. Now some of those were against Top 25 teams, like Seton Hall and Auburn. Yale also had to travel to face a good Vermont team. In the most recent game, the Bulldogs faced Iona (another MAAC team) and lost 91-77. Nevertheless, I still think this team is better than its record and will show why they were the preseason choice to win the Ivy League. 

With Monmouth, there has to be a concern about them “running out of gas” at some point. Again, tonight marks their sixth straight game on the road, a stretch which goes all the way back to the end of November. They outlasted Pitt on Sunday, winning 56-52, thanks to a huge first half. Pitt missed all seven of its three point attempts in the 1H and finished the game with a 34.0 overall FG%. Yale will shoot better than that as they are 46.6% for the season at home, including 38.5% from three. The Bulldogs, who are 7-1 ATS after allowing 80+ points in their last game, also average 82.6 PPG on their own court. They’ve lost B2B games just one time this year. 10* Yale

10* Under Wizards/Nuggets (9:05 ET): After a brief stop back home, the Wizards are back out on the road Monday to start what will be a six-game trip that takes them to X-Mas. Saturday’s return home did not go well as the Wiz lost 123-98 to the Jazz. That was their fourth loss in the last five games and fifth in the last seven. Believe it or not, Washington was actually up 51-50 at the half. But their defensive effort over the final 24 minutes left a lot to be desired and it was the fifth Over in the last six games for the Wiz. 

Denver is on a 10-1 Over run. Their scoring has been way up of late as they’ve averaged 113.6 points the last five games. At the same time, the Nuggets have also allowed 111.4 PPG those last five contests. However, all of their games this month have been on the road. This will be Denver’s 1st home game since 11/26. What’s notable about this is that the Nuggets allow only 98.7 PPG. I also expect their recent shooting to “cool off” after such a long road trip. 

Denver only scores 103.5 PPG at home. So this O/U line is much higher than the combined average number of points scored here at the Pepsi Center this season, which is 202.2 per game. Washington only averages 102.7 PPG on the road. Their number of points allowed has gone up recently, but for the season the Wizards still are allowing only 107.4 PPG. Kyle Kuzma (COVID list) won’t play for Washington tonight while Denver is dealing with multiple absences. 10* Under Wizards/Nuggets

10* Oklahoma State (8:00 ET): After a 6-1 start to their season, Oklahoma State has dropped two straight games, both as home favorites. They lost 60-51 to Wichita State and 77-71 to Xavier. In both instances, the Cowboys inability to make shots doomed them. They missed their final nine FG attempts vs. Wichita State, ending up at just 37.5% for the game. Against Xavier, the Pokes ran into a 2-3 matchup zone and that really slowed them down. The L2 games have seen OSU go a combined 13 of 47 (27.6%) from three-point range. Having had more than a week off, look for them to shoot better tonight against Cleveland State here in Stillwater. Lay the points. 

Now I know it may seem risky to lay double digits to a Cleveland State team that has won its last six games. But the Vikings, co-regular season champs in the Horizon League last season, haven’t had to leave campus in quite a while. They’ve played just one “true” road game all season and that was the opener, a 69-59 loss to BYU. CSU then lost its next game, 67-56 to Ohio U, giving them an 0-2 start to the year. They’ve since managed to beat up on some lesser competition, but this will easily be their toughest opponent to date. 

In four of the last five games, Cleveland State has managed to shoot 50% or better from the field. Don’t look for that to happen tonight. OSU has held opponents to 37.3% for the year so far and is 13th in the country (per KenPom) in defensive efficiency. Both teams have big upcoming games (CSU plays Duke next, OSU plays Houston). But the home team, coming off B2B losses, should be more focused tonight and will shoot the basketball a lot better than they have of late. Look for a “statement game” from the Cowboys. 10* Oklahoma State

10* Portland (9:05 ET): Both these teams have been struggling mightily as of late. The Blazers have lost four in a row, all by double digits, while Minnesota has lost five in a row with the last three defeats coming by an average of 20 PPG. So something is going to have to give Sunday night in the Pacific Northwest. Injuries aside, my power ratings say Portland should be a solid favorite in this spot. With the chance that Damian Lillard could return to the lineup tonight, my money is on the home team. 

Portland has lost its last three home games. However, there’s no denying the fact this is a much better team at home than on the road. The Blazers fell to 1-11 SU away from home with a 104-94 loss at Golden State on Wednesday. But they are still 10-4 SU here at the Moda Center where their number of points scored rises to 111.7 PPG and their number of points allowed drops to 106.9 PPG. The home court advantage seems especially valuable for tonight as Minnesota has dropped eight straight here in Portland. 

Lillard could return and the Blazers are at home. That’s two reasons to like them. Another is the amount of time off they’ve had between games. For the first time this year, Portland will be taking the court with three days of rest. Minnesota last played on Friday when they trailed by as many as 30 at home vs. Cleveland. Defensively, the T’wolves are a mess right now having allowed 110 or more points in seven of their last eight games. Their last three losses were all at home. On the road, they allow even more PPG. 10* Portland

8* UMKC (3:00 ET): It would seem as if the oddsmakers are underrating UMKC right now. I had them on Friday, as my *10* Game of the Week, when they held off Green Bay for a 64-55 win and cover as 8.5-point favorites. I definitely had to sweat the cover, but let it be known that the Roos were up by as many as 17 points in the second half. The fact that the game ended up being closer “than it should have been” actually works in our favor here as we can again grab UMKC at a discounted price. 

Here, the Roos are facing a SIU-Edwardsville team that is 3-6 SU and has not won B2B games at any point this season. The fact SIU-Edwardsville is off a win here makes them an attractive fade on Sunday. The Cougars played arguably their best game on Wednesday, beating IPFW 80-59 as a 2-point home underdog. They jumped on the Mastodons from the start, taking a 46-29 lead. But SIU Edwardsville has yet to play two good games in a row. After their previous two wins, they’ve gone out and lost by double digits both times. 

One of those losses was to St. Thomas, a non-DI school! The other was a 25-point loss at Bradley last Saturday. This issue of not being able to follow up on a win has persisted for a while now with SIU-Edwardsville as they are 0-7 ATS off their previous seven SU win! As for UMKC, they are now a perfect 5-0 ATS their L5 games as a favorite and 6-0 ATS their last six games vs. teams that have losing records. A reminder that the Roos have already gone to Missouri and won this year. 8* UMKC

10* Sacramento (8:00 ET): This is an interesting matchup as both teams are in the second night of a back to back. The Kings lost Friday, 124-123 in Charlotte, after De’Aaron Fox missed two free throws with 2.4 seconds remaining. I was personally happy to see that as I was on Charlotte. But for the Kings, it was a difficult “pill to swallow,” not just because of Fox’s missed free throws, but they led most of the game (by as many as nine in the 3Q) and the Hornets seemingly “couldn’t miss” (shot 55.2%). Look for them to bounce back here though, at least ATS, as they’re catching a decent number here in Cleveland.

The Cavs continued their surprising start with a dominant 123-106 win at Minnesota last night. They led by as many as 30 (on the road!). With the win and cover, Cleveland is now 19-6-2 ATS, which is the best cover percentage in the league. Although they are 4-0 ATS when favored, this is a tricky spot for the Cavs, who are unrested and rarely this large of a favorite. I can’t possibly see them matching the red-hot shooting of last night where they were 54.1% from the field (shot over 60% in the 1H).

You have to tip your cap to Cleveland, who is undoubtedly THE biggest surprise team in the NBA. They entered this season with the fifth lowest power rating in the league, but now project to be a playoff team. They’ve covered the spread in 9 of their previous 10 games, but what’s interesting about that is the lone ATS loss during that stretch (at Milwaukee) came on the second night of a back to back. The Cavs’ last 9 ATS wins have all come when playing with at least one day of rest. The Kings will come into this game hungrier and - at the very worst - keep it close. 10* Sacramento

10* Mississippi State (2:00 ET):  There are still eight unbeaten teams remaining in College Basketball. One of the “lesser knowns” would be Colorado State, who is 9-0. The Rams are not ranked and other than Iowa State, I’d consider them the “weakest” of those teams that still don’t have a loss. Expect CSU to lose for the first time on Saturday as they face a Mississippi State team that’s angry after losing to Minnesota (as 11.5-pt favorites) in Starkville last weekend. MSU is 6-2 SU on the year and this is the first time they’ve been underdogs in any game. Take the points. 

This game takes place in Fort Worth, TX as part of the Hall of Fame Classic. It certainly looks to be Colorado State’s toughest test so far, although they did just beat St. Mary’s by 16 last weekend. But that game was in Fort Collins where the Rams “shot the lights out,” making 52.8% of their total field goal attempts, including 9 of 16 from three-point range. Also helpful was the fact St. Mary’s missed 17 of its 21 three-point attempts.

Miss State has done an excellent job defensively, holding teams to 39.4% shooting for the year. It should be noted that this is their second straight game against an unbeaten team. The Bulldogs were tied with Minnesota with 17 seconds left on Sunday before giving up the game’s final five points (Minnesota has since lost to fall from the ranks of the unbeaten). I don’t think that MSU is going to blow a second chance to ruin a team’s unbeaten start. Colorado State can’t continue to shoot 53.6% from the floor (season average!) and Miss State has the size advantage here. 10* Mississippi State

8* Oklahoma (1:30 ET): There are still eight unbeaten teams remaining in College Basketball. One of them is #12 Arkansas, who is 9-0. You can’t take away from the fact they are unbeaten, but I’m not nearly as high on the Hogs as the pollsters are. They sit just outside the Top 25 in my own personal power ratings, which is just a little lower than they are in the KenPom ratings (where they are #23). This afternoon marks the Razorbacks’ first “true” road game of the season and I think it will be their first SU loss as well. 

Oklahoma is hosting Arkansas on Saturday. The Sooners are 7-2 SU, but coming off a bad loss to Butler here in Norman. It wasn’t “bad” in the sense that they were blown out. But rather, OU was an 11-point favorite in the 66-62 overtime loss. The Sooners blew a 10-point halftime advantage and saw their 26-game home win streak against non-conference teams come to an end. Both of their losses this year have been close; the other was by three to Utah State in Myrtle Beach. 

Oklahoma already holds a win over a Top 25 team this season. Ironically, it was over a SEC team. They beat Florida 74-67 (in Norman) back on Dec 1. OU will soon be headed to the SEC, but they’re not there yet, so the 26-1 SU run vs non-conference teams at home is still in play for this matchup with Arkansas, a team the Sooners are 5-0 SU/ATS when hosting, going back to ‘97. This game is being played in Oklahoma City, not Norman, but I’d still consider it a “home game” for the Sooners, who should hand Arkansas its first loss of the season. 8* Oklahoma

10* Under Pistons/Pelicans (8:05 ET): Two teams whose games have been higher scoring than usual of late collide in the Big Easy on Friday. Both the Pistons and Pelicans are off overtime losses, which at least partly explains some of the added scoring we’ve seen of late. Detroit went down at home to Washington on Wednesday, losing 119-116 on a buzzer beater. That was the Pistons’ 10th straight loss, a streak which goes back to 11/19. As for New Orleans, their OT loss on Wednesday was also at home, 120-114 to the Nuggets. I’m looking for this game not to be as high scoring though and will jump on the Under. 

Detroit shot 54.2% from three-point range against Washington (and still lost!). Do not expect them to come anywhere close to that percentage tonight. Not only are the Pistons shooting only 31% from behind the arc for the season, but they are 29th in overall scoring (99.8 PPG) and offensive efficiency (ahead of only OKC in both categories). Plus they are 30th (i.e. last) in Effective Field Goal Percentage. Over the last nine games, the Pistons have not scored more than 106 points in regulation. Four times they’ve been held below 100 points. 

New Orleans averages just 103.7 PPG for the year, but the L5 games have seen them score 111.8 PPG. Again, going to OT on Wednesday partially explains the increase in scoring. There was also a win over the Clippers where the Pelicans scored 123 points. But just like the Pistons, you can’t expect this level of scoring to continue. New Orleans is bottom five in both offensive efficiency and effective field goals percentage. It was a lot of turnovers on Wednesday (25) that led to them giving up 120 points. They won’t be that careless again, nor will Detroit shoot 51% overall like Denver did. Can’t see the Pelicans matching their own 52.2% shooting from the last game either and the Under is 4-0 the L4 times they’ve been home chalk. 10* Under Pistons/Pelicans

10* UMKC (8:00 ET): UMKC has fared extremely well at home thus far, although both times they faced non-DI opposition. Still, giving up an average of just 34 PPG at home is quite the accomplishment. Tonight the Roos host a Green Bay squad that is 0-4 on the road with the four losses coming by an average of 13.7 PPG. It’s the first time this season that UMKC has been favored, but according to my own power ratings, the number isn’t nearly high enough. So I’ll lay the points. 

UMKC opened its season with three road games against teams from “power conferences.” After predictably losing the first two (at Minnesota and Iowa), the Roos stunned the College Basketball world by going to Missouri and winning 80-66 as an 11-point dog. That win obviously carries a lot of weight in the power rating. But it should be noted the Roos have another road win as well, 74-58 at Idaho State, where they were a two-point dog. All four of the teams wins this season have been by double digits. 

Green Bay had a two-game win streak snapped last Saturday as they were housed 82-58 by Youngstown State, at home. That was a pick em game according to the oddsmakers, however, the Phoenix were outscored 50-28 over the final 22 minutes. Their only two wins this year came against a non-DI team (WI-Superior) and Robert Morris (who is still winless). I can’t see GB going on the road and pulling an upset here. For UMKC, this is the final home game before X-Mas, so they’re going to want to win big. 10* UMKC

8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): The oddsmakers seem to be underrating the Hornets as of late. That’s understandable as the team is without three starters and two reserves due to COVID-19 protocol, plus they have also lost five of their last six games. But, including B2B close losses to the 76ers here at home, Charlotte has managed to go 4-0 ATS in its last four games. Tonight they host a Sacramento team that’s on a 3-0 SU/ATS winning run. My power ratings say the Hornets should still be favored here, so I’m rolling with them. 

Earlier I mentioned that Charlotte is just 1-5 SU in its last six games. But five of those games have been decided by four points or less and the Hornets have come out on the losing end in four of them. So they easily could have a better overall record coming into this game. What’s really hurt them is an 0-4 SU record in OT games this season. The first loss to Philadelphia was an OT game, then the Hornets came up just four points short in the rematch on Wednesday. 

In the wake of all the absences, other players have stepped up for the Hornets. Gordon Hayward had a season-high 31 points on Wednesday. Charlotte should have no problem scoring tonight against a Sacramento team that just gave up 130 points in its last game. Prior to their last two games, the Kings have had three and two days off. Here, it’s just one day between games. Sacramento also has only five wins by more than five points all season. With one of those five coming against Charlotte (140-110 back on 11/5), the Hornets are “thinking revenge” coming into this one. The Kings are also 0-7 ATS the L3 seasons off a game where they scored 130+ points. 8* Charlotte

8* St. John’s (8:30 ET): I think it’s a secretly “juicy” card tonight in College Hoops. Not only are two of the remaining nine unbeatens playing, but you have the nation’s worst ATS team (who I’m taking) as well as the nation’s best ATS team (who I’ll be fading) both in action. I already talked about how 0-9 SU/ATS William & Mary is “due” for a win & cover Thursday. Now let’s turn to Monmounth, who is 8-0 ATS and certainly due to drop a game at the betting window. There are only two perfect ATS teams left (7-0 MD-East Shore is the other). I think “tonight is the night” for the Hawks to fall from those ranks as they are clear underdogs at St. John’s. Lay the points in this one. 

St. John’s unveiled a new starting lineup on Sunday and the end result was an 83-69 win against Fordham. Replacing 6-2 G Stef Smith and 6-11 center Joel Soriano were Dylan Addae-Wusu and Esahia Nyiwe. Addae-Wusu had a career-day (11 points and 11 assists) while Nyiwe scored seven points. Addae-Wusu was high school teammates with the Johnnies’ second-leading scorer, Posh Alexander, who also had a career-day against Fordham with 23 points. Julian Champagnie led the Big East in scoring last season and is averaging 21.0 PPG so far this year. I think Red Storm HC Mike Anderson has found himself a solid starting five.

St. John’s is 6-2 SU coming into this game. Their only losses were to Kansas and Indiana. While they got blown out by the Jayhawks, the Red Storm only lost by two at Indiana. Against the spread, they are 0-5 L5 games, but they were big double digit faves in four of those games (all wins) and then there was the game vs. Kansas. I know that Monmouth is not only perfect ATS, but also on a 7-game SU win streak after losing the season opener (by just two) to Charlotte. But tonight marks the Hawks’ seventh road game of the season and fourth in the last 12 days. They’ve got to be running on empty. 8* St. John’s

10* Memphis (8:05 ET): This is a situation where I anticipate that “the world” will be on the Lakers as they are laying a short number to a Memphis team that lost last night. But it certainly seems foolish to discount a Grizzlies team that won (and covered) its first five games without Ja Morant. One of those wins came by 73 points over Oklahoma City, which set a new NBA record for largest margin of victory in league history. Last night’s game against Dallas saw the Grizzlies seemingly run out of gas late as they were outscored 28-21 in the fourth quarter. The final score was 104-96, an outright loss as 2.5-point favorites. 

While this is the second night of a back to back, I think it’s worth noting that Memphis at least gets to stay home. That alleviates some of the issues typically associated with this situation. Also, note that Dillon Brooks was ejected late in the 4Q last night, which may have an inspiring effect on both he and his teammates for tonight. As a team, Memphis shot just 40% against the Mavs, including 9 of 31 from three-point range. I expect better shooting tonight as the Grizz are 6-1 SU and ATS this season after a game where they were held under 100 points. They are also 9-4 ATS as underdogs. 

The Lakers are just 13-12 SU this season, including 4-5 on the road. Now a lot of that has to do with LeBron James missing a lot of action. James is expected to be on the court tonight. However, he would be matching a season-high by playing in his third consecutive game. Not sure he will be able to match his 30-point effort (on 13 of 19 shooting) that he had against Boston on Tuesday. Same with Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook, both of whom also had double doubles. I just think the Lakers are a mediocre basketball team right now and the oddsmakers haven’t caught up to that fact. Take the points. 10* Memphis

8* William & Mary (7:00 ET): Tonight “has” to be the night for William & Mary, right? The Tribe comes into Thursday at 0-9 - both straight up and against the spread! There are just four winless teams in the country, straight up. None have more losses than W&M’s nine. There are also just four winless teams in the country, against the spread. None have more losses than W&M’s nine. This is quite the dubious distinction for one of the last remaining “major” College Basketball programs to never make a NCAA Tournament. But hosting an “added board team” tonight, we like the Tribe to “get off the schneid.” 

Hampton comes in with a 3-6 SU record, but is off its first win in nearly a month. After opening 2-0 SU (both wins against non-DI opposition), the Pirates promptly lost their next six games. Four of those six losses came by double digits and all were by at least six points (significant when looking at tonight’s pointspread). But Saturday saw the Pirates finally take down a D-I opponent as they snuck by Norfolk State 58-57. They won on a buzzer-beater as Russell Dean hit a miraculous three-pointer as time expired. That was a nice win as a three-point home dog, but Hampton is still 0-3 SU on the road this season. 

Hampton is still on a “high” off their thrilling win, but William & Mary is desperate and knows this is their best shot at a win yet. The only other time that the Tribe have been favored was the second game of the season when they were -2 here at home vs. American U and lost 72-64. I know that an 0-9 SU/ATS record inspires little confidence here, but every team is eventually “due” and in the case of W&M they are facing their weakest opponent yet, one that is 5-16 ATS its L21 non-conference games. Hampton is 0-5 ATS the L5 times it has been off an ATS win and 0-4 SU vs. W&M the L4 seasons. 8* William & Mary

10* Seton Hall (6:30 ET): I believe the wrong team is favored in this Big 12 vs. Big East matchup Thursday night. This isn’t the first time I’ve taken Seton Hall, nor will it be the last. It was almost a month ago that I called the Pirates one of the more underrated teams in the country as they went into Michigan and pulled a 67-65 upset. That win earned them the respect they deserved. While the Pirates did lose their next game, 79-76 to Ohio State, they have since rattled off four consecutive victories and come into tonight ranked #23 in the country. 

Texas is ranked #7 in the country and like Seton Hall has just one loss on the season. The Longhorns were beaten as a 7.5-point dog by Gonzaga, 86-74 back on November 13th. That loss is still the only time UT has had to venture off campus thus far. They’ve won five straight by an average of 23 PPG, but that’s all against lesser competition. This will be, by far, the ‘Horns toughest test since losing to the ‘Zags. 

While Texas is the higher ranked team, factoring in the home court edge, I believe Seton Hall should be the favorite here. The Pirates are 5-0 SU at home, winning by an average of 32.4 PPG. Again, Texas has played only one “true” road game while Seton Hall not only went to Michigan, but also played a Holiday Tournament in Florida. Myles Cale returned to Seton Hall’s lineup over the weekend, after missing the previous three games. That’s a big boost for tonight. Also, Texas is 0 for its last 7 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days rest and 2-14 ATS when facing a team that averages at least 77 PPG. 10* Seton Hall

8* Utah Valley State (9:00 ET): Going back to my “old friends” in Utah Valley. The last time I played the Wolverines, they turned in an outright upset for me, defeating #12 BYU 72-65 in overtime as 13-point underdogs. Quite obviously, that was the Wolverines’ most impressive win to date as they’ve started the season 7-1. That they were able to defeat BYU despite shooting just 31.3% from the field (including 5 of 19 on 3PA) speaks to what kind of team we’ve got here. They did have a substantial edge at the FT line over BYU, but even if that’s not the case tonight, UVU should get by Southern Utah. Take the points. 

Southern Utah enters tonight on a four-game win streak. Two of those wins, 88-85 over Yale and 81-75 over Idaho, were close. In fact, the win over Yale required OT. This will actually be just the second home game for the Thunderbirds, so it may seem surprising that they are 5-3 SU overall. But they’ve only been a dog three times and did lose outright at Dixie State (as a 10.5-point favorite) in the second game of the season. 

I know that one has to be careful about taking a team coming off a big upset win, but in the case of Utah Valley State, they’ve had plenty of time off. The win over BYU was last Wednesday. They were to play Yellowstone Christian (a non-board team) on Friday, but that game was canceled. I’ve got the Wolverines rated as the better team on a neutral floor, so even with the home court advantage tonight, Southern Utah should not be favored by this many. This is a triple revenge game for UVU as they have not beaten their in-state rivals since 2014 (lost in both ‘19 and ‘20). 8* Utah Valley State

10* Over Bulls/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): Chicago has won and covered four straight, but tonight they will be without leading scorer DeMar DeRozan, who is in the league’s “health and safety protocols” due to COVID-19. DeRozan, the league’s fourth leading scorer at 26.4 PPG, is a significant loss to the Bulls. However, they did just score 109 points without him in a win over Denver on Monday. Tonight, I expect they’ll easily crack the 100-point barrier once again. With a low total, that means I’m going Over in this one. 

Cleveland, like Chicago, is another surprising team. The Cavs enter Wednesday with a 13-12 SU record and are 8th in the East. That may not sound all that impressive, but when you consider how moribund this franchise has been in the “non-LeBron years” the last decade-plus, it’s certainly an improvement. The Cavs had their own four-game win streak snapped on Sunday with a 109-108 loss to the Jazz. Then they went down to another of the league’s top teams, Milwaukee, 112-104 on Monday. That snapped a 7-game ATS win streak. 

The Bulls are a perfect 6-0 Over this season after holding their previous opponent to 100 points or less. That’s the situation they are in here, coming off the aforementioned win over Denver. Chicago is averaging 110.2 PPG on the road this year. While a big part of that is DeRozan, the team can still turn to the likes of Lonzo Ball, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, all of whom have turned in big games lately. For Cleveland, this is a rare instance of being favored (just 3rd time all season). Having scored 104+ points in eight consecutive games, they’ve been just fine offensively without Collin Sexton. I think this is a case where oddsmakers have set the O/U line far too low, based on a couple of absences. Both teams will be fine. 10* Over Bulls/Cavaliers

10* Connecticut (7:00 ET): Normally, when a ranked and unranked team meet, I see value in the latter. But here, you’ve got a UConn team whose #15 ranking I am totally in line with, taking on a West Virginia team that simply isn’t on their level. I understand that this game is in Morgantown and UConn is without two starters. But my power ratings say the Huskies should still be the favorites tonight, so taking the points in this one looks to be a “no-brainer.” 

At 8-1, UConn is off to its best start since 2013-14. This is a team with tremendous depth, which is why I am not overly concerned about the absences of Adama Sanogo and Tyrese Martin. Without those two, the Huskies still scored 88 points in their last game. Granted, it was at home vs. Grambling, but positive contributions from the likes of R.J. Cole, Isaiah Whatley and Jordan Hawkins have me confident in this team heading into tonight. Nine different players scored and logged at least 12 minutes on the court against Grambling. I also like the fact that UConn is 16th nationally in FG% defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 37.2 percent for the season. 

West Virginia (7-1) also has just one loss. It came against Marquette, back on 11/19, 82-71 as a 5.5-point neutral site favorite. The Mountaineers have since rattled off four straight wins, including 67-51 over Radford on Saturday. But only two players finished that game in double figures. With second-leading scorer Sean McNeil out, WVU leans heavily on Taz Sherman, who went for 27 against Radford. I think that UConn, the superior defensive team in this matchup, can contain Sherman. The Huskies’ only loss this year was by four to Michigan State on Thanksgiving, which came a day after a 2OT win over Auburn in a holiday tournament. Look for them to win their first “true” road game of 2021-22. 10* Connecticut

8* DePaul (8:30 ET): After suffering their first loss of the season, I see DePaul bouncing back in a major way Tuesday night at home. The Blue Demons lost 68-64 on Saturday, to Loyola Chicago, but covered the spread as 4.5-point home underdogs. They’re now 6-1 ATS and while there have been some close wins mixed in (won by three over Rutgers and four over W Illinois), this should be more of a blowout as Duquesne comes in at 3-6 SU and off a very tough loss at Marshall. Lay the points.

On Saturday, Duquesne went to Marshall and took a seven-point lead into halftime. But it was not meant to be. The Dukes lost 72-71 on a last-second three-pointer. While they left with the cash (as eight-point dogs), it’s going to be a difficult loss to get over and thus I believe the Dukes are ripe to be blown out here. This is the first time this season that Duquesne has had to play B2B “true” road games. They’ve actually dropped two in a row as last week also saw them lose at home to Bowling Green, 78-70 as a 4.5-point favorite. 

DePaul also led at the half in their last game. They took a 37-31 lead into the break and seemed primed to win their seventh straight game. But they only scored 27 points in the second half. Leading scorer Javon Freeman-Liberty was held to only 10 points and six rebounds. He averages 21.1 PPG, so expect a bounce back effort here. My power ratings say that this should be a double digit spread, so I’ll put faith in that and lay the number. 8* DePaul

10* Kansas (8:00 ET): Kansas enters the day ranked #8 in the country. I’ve got them a bit higher in my own power ratings. The Jayhawks’ lone defeat came by a single point, in Florida, to Dayton on a buzzer-beater. That was a game they led by 10 at the half. Since suffering that loss, KU has bounced back with convincing wins over Iona (also in Florida) and at St. John’s. Tonight they face a UTEP team that is going to be severely outclassed. The game takes place in Kansas City, not Lawrence, but you’re still going to want to lay the points as the favorite should roll here.

UTEP has a 4-3 SU record after a loss to New Mexico State last week. That’s the only game the Miners have played since Thanksgiving. I  made the mistake of taking the Under in that last game and what killed me was UTEP allowing 56.5% shooting, including 40% from three-point range. I don’t see the Miners defending any better here against one of the elite offensive teams in the country (Kansas is 3rd in Off Efficiency per KenPom). Another issue is that UTEP fouls way too much. They also don’t shoot well from behind the arc (just 31.7%), so it’s going to be difficult to “keep pace” against a vastly superior opponent. 

These teams met last season and the game was actually close (Kansas won 67-62 as a 17-point favorite). It was not a great shooting night for the Jayhawks, who made only five three-pointers and 41.8% of their total FG attempts. I expect a much better effort at the offensive end tonight. Covering the spread has been a bit of an issue thus far for Bill Self’s team (3-3-1 ATS), but UTEP is just 2-6 ATS its last eight games vs. teams with winning records and hasn’t faced any team near this caliber all season. 10* Kansas

8* South Dakota (8:00 ET): I wouldn’t want to lay points with a Northern Colorado team that has seen four of its five wins come by three points or less. The Bears opened their season by beating Pacific 67-65 and then Hawaii 81-78. Then they proceeded to lose five of their next six contests, the lone win coming against Colorado College (non-DI team). That 93-53 final is the only time Northern Colorado has won a game by more than three points all season. They are coming off a two-point win (in OT) over Montana State in the Big Sky opener, then a three-point win over Montana on Saturday (a game they trailed by eight at the half). 

Now South Dakota is hardly some dominant force. But the Coyotes should be able to stay inside this generous number tonight. They’ll come in with some confidence after picking up their own non-DI victory on Friday, 93-37 over Waldorf College. South Dakota is now 5-3 SU overall and aside from a horrible second game of the season (at Drake), they’ve been competitive throughout. They were favored in three of their early wins. 

This is a non-conference game, so it is unlikely to have the favorite’s full attention. In fact, Northern Colorado heads to Arizona next week and that may be the game the coaching staff and players are thinking about right now. The Bears have not been favored by this many points in any game this season and I can’t see them shooting 53.5% again from the floor, like they did their last time out. The last five games have seen them allow 77.8 PPG on 48.3% shooting. 8* South Dakota

10* Under New Mexico State/New Mexico (9:00 ET): I’m going to try with the Under for a second time here with New Mexico State. Back on Friday, I was unsuccessful as the Aggies and UTEP combined for 141 points, six more than what the oddsmakers projected. Notable though is that the number of combined points was lower than the O/U line for tonight’s game against New Mexico. Now that’s understandable given these two teams went to a 101-94 final last week. But the average number of total points in NMSU games this season is still only 148.4 PPG. 

For more than half the game, NMSU and UTEP looked to be headed for an Under. I was feeling good when the game was 34-34 with just over 15 minutes remaining. But those final 15 minutes saw both teams more than double their scoring. The Aggies finished the game by shooting an unreal 56.6% from the field. They also hit 40% from three-point range for the second straight game. I just can’t see them matching those numbers again tonight.

New Mexico has not played since the first meeting with NMSU. Aside from a 73-58 loss to Towson, virtually every Lobos’ game has been high-scoring. You can also say the same for NMSU as their last six games have all gone Over the total. But this is likely to close as the highest O/U line for either team this season. The number was 143.0 last week, so it’s a substantial increase from that. The Under is a combined 20-6 in these teams last 26 Monday games. 10* Under New Mexico State/New Mexico

10* Miami (7:35 ET): Two teams missing star players meet on the court Monday as the Heat play host to the Grizzlies. Surprisingly, Memphis has gone 4-0 SU and ATS without Ja Morant, a stretch which includes a record-setting 152-79 beatdown of the Thunder last Thursday. But you can’t play the likes of OKC every night and even though that win (largest MOV in NBA history) was followed by a 97-90 win in Dallas on Saturday, I just don’t think that the Grizz can continue to win like this without Morant. 

Miami has been without Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, resulting in them losing three of their last four games. Adebayo is out for six weeks, so forget about him for now. But there’s a chance Butler could return to the lineup tonight. Regardless if he does or not, expect the Heat to win “going away.” There’s still enough firepower on hand here, including Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson. Look for the team to shoot a lot better tonight than it did vs. Milwaukee (40.5%) on Saturday. 

Though it’s the 73-point win that grabbed all the headlines, the Grizzlies have been winning mostly because of their defense, which has held the last four opponents well below 40% from the field. That likely cannot continue. Even with the record-setting win over OKC, the Grizz still have a negative point differential for the season and on the road they are being outscored by over eight points per game. Miami remains a top four team in the Eastern Conference and their defensive numbers are set to improve. 10* Miami

10* Toronto (6:05 ET): The Raptors are just 4-10 (SU and ATS) over their last 14 games with three separate three-game losing streaks. But, in the midst of what is a pretty long homestand, they did just knock off the reigning NBA Champion Bucks Thursday night, 97-93 as 4.5-point dogs. That was no small feat as Milwaukee entered the game on an 8-game winning streak. Toronto’s home record of 3-8 SU still leaves a lot to be desired, but I’m willing to lay a small number on Sunday in what looks to be a favorable spot.

The Raptors will host Washington tonight. The Wizards are coming off a 116-101 loss to Cleveland on Friday where at one point they were on the wrong end of a 27-2 run. They never led after the first quarter and at one point found themselves behind by as many as 36 points. Now the Wiz are set to play three road games in four nights. This hasn’t been a very good road team as they score just 101.8 PPG away from home. The last six road games have seen the Wizards go 1-5 ATS.

Toronto has failed to score 100 points in four consecutive games while shooting around 40%. You’ve got to figure they are due to breakthrough offensively. The Wizards are not exactly known for their defense and have given up an average of 110.4 points their L5 games. The Raptors have done a good job defensively, at least recently, holding their last three opponents all below 42% shooting. They held Memphis to 38.7% and Milwaukee to 37.6%! The upcoming schedule is favorable and this is a team due to go on a run at home. 10* Toronto

10* Canisius (1:00 ET): Going with the short home dog in this one as Canisius should be highly motivated facing a team that’s unbeaten, ATS that is. Monmouth is 7-0 vs. the number thus far, one of only four teams in the country to be 6-0 ATS or better. The Hawks are also 6-1 SU with the only loss coming at Charlotte in the season opener. Since then, they’ve gone on quite the run, which includes an outright upset at Cincinnati two weeks ago. But you’ve got to think they are due to “slip up.”

Another motivating factor for Canisius is that they’ve lost five straight to their MAAC rivals (also 0-5 ATS in those games). Furthermore, the Golden Griffins have lost two straight at home - 89-75 to Cornell and 74-68 to Fairfield. They went off as the favorite in both games. After losing the conference opener, Canisius is now 2-6 SU on the year, so this is pretty close to a “must-win” for them. It’s just tough for me to see this team losing three in a row at home. Plus, Monmouth is due to drop a game, at least at the betting window.

Sure enough, Canisius is a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS its last three times as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points. They were blistered by hot shooting in the L2 games as Cornell shot 61.8% and Fairfield shot 53.6%. Monmouth has averaged just 59 points the L2 games and will be playing its third straight away game and second in three days. They benefited from the opponent (Niagara) shooting just 28.6% on Friday. That’s quite the difference from Canisius’ last two opponents. Look for the shooting to “even out” in this early Sunday start. Take the points. 10* Canisius

10* Over Bulls/Nets (7:35 ET): These are the two top teams in the Eastern Conference right now. With Brooklyn, that’s not a surprise as they came into the season as the consensus top team in the East (even with the status of Kyrie Irving). Chicago has been a surprise as they are 15-8 SU and just a 1.5 games behind the Nets. This is the best start by any Bulls team since 2015-16 and it includes an impressive 23-point win over the Nets (at home) last month. The Bulls come into tonight off B2B wins. 

Brooklyn played last night and was able to outlast the pesky Timberwolves 110-105. But they did not cover the 7.5-point spread. The game also stayed Under despite a combined 65 free throw attempts from the two teams. That high number of FTs was offset by poor three-point shooting, especially from the Nets, who were just 6 of 23 from behind the arc. I expect them to improve - dramatically - on that number here. The Over had been 5-1 in the Nets’ L6 games prior to last night with five straight seeing at least 220 total points scored. 

Chicago’s last two games have both been high-scoring as they beat the Hornets 133-119 and the Knicks 119-115. The Bulls have displayed very good three-point shooting so far, making 37% of their attempts from behind the arc. That percentage is even higher on the road. Looking at the Nets’ 3-pt defense, I just don’t think they can continue to hold teams to 30.9%. Brooklyn didn’t shoot well in the previous meeting with Chicago (39.5%) while the Bulls were only 29.0% from three. I think those percentages will be improved tonight. 10* Over Bulls/Nets

10* New Orleans (8:35 ET): The Pelicans look for revenge tonight after being run out of their own gym in their last game. The Mavericks beat them 139-107 on Wednesday while shooting a blistering 68.7% from the field. That kind of offensive performance doesn’t happen all that often (it was a franchise-record!), so I think it’s safe to say we can expect colder shooting from the Mavs here tonight. I know that New Orleans has gotten off to a bad start this season (6-18), but they’d won three of four going into Wednesday night’s game. This is a spot where I want to take the points. 

Aside from the top three teams (Phoenix, Golden State & Utah), all of whom are VERY good, the Western Conference is looking a little depth-shy this season. The Mavs come into tonight in fourth place, but they’ve actually allowed more points than they’ve scored this season. Jason Kidd’s team had to be ecstatic with their own offensive effort Weds night considering their previous two opponents shot 57% and 56% against them. In their last home game, Dallas lost 114-96 to Cleveland. The inconsistency of this team makes it hard for me to believe they are capable of turning in a second straight dominant performance, which is what is needed with this kind of spread. 

The Mavs have lost five of seven, so New Orleans was the hotter team entering Wednesday’s game. It boiled down to Dallas coming out red hot. The Mavs were 18 of 34 from three-point range, which certainly won’t be duplicated here as they are just 34.1% for the year from behind the arc. Not only are the Pelicans 5-2 ATS off their previous seven straight up losses, but the Mavs are just 1-4 ATS the previous five times they’ve been off a double digit win. Take the points here. 10* New Orleans

10* Under New Mexico St/UTEP (8:00 ET): New Mexico State has gone Over in each of its last five lined games, including a wild 101-94 home loss to rival New Mexico (that did NOT go to overtime) earlier in the week. The Aggies will rematch the Lobos in Albuquerque on Monday. There’s a chance they might be looking ahead to that rematch, but regardless I expect tonight’s game in El Paso to be a lot lower-scoring than recent NMSU contests. This is primarily due to the fact the home team (UTEP) is allowing just 59.3 PPG this season. Take the Under. 

At home, UTEP is allowing just 53.7 PPG. They’ve played four games here so far and none of the opponents have been able to score more than 57 points. Now, none of those opponents were all that formidable (two were non-DI teams), but it’s not as if New Mexico State is some kind of juggernaut either. This will be the Aggies’ first “true” road game of the season. They’ve played three neutral site games so far and one of them (against Utah State) saw them held to just 58 points 

UTEP is just 236th in points per possession, so I wouldn’t count on them scoring very many points Friday night. It was just two games ago, here at home, they finished with 40 points in a loss to UC Riverside (where the Miners were 4.5-point favorites!). Throw in the fact that NMSU doesn’t exactly play at the fastest tempo (276th) and you’ve got the perfect recipe here for their Over streak to be halted. The Under is 35-17 in UTEP’s last 52 home games, including 6-2 the L8 when they were a dog. 10* Under New Mexico St/UTEP

8* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): The 76ers come into Friday having won just 3 of their last 12 games. They lost 88-87 in Boston on Wednesday as Joel Embiid, still working his way back from a three-week absence due to COVID-19, struggled again. Embiid had 42 points and 14 rebounds in his first game back, but has gone a miserable 7 of 33 from the floor in the two games since. As a team, the 76ers are shooting just 40.8% in their L5 games. But I expect them to “step up” tonight in what amounts to a “must-win” game at Atlanta. 

The Hawks have played much better than the 76ers recently, winning 8 of their last 10 including a 114-111 at Indiana on Wednesday. But they remain short-handed as Bogdan Bogdanovic, Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter all remain out of action. Trae Young really carried the team with a 33-point effort on Wednesday, but the Hawks probably can’t rely on that again here. This is a team that is heavily two-point dependent and the Sixers do an excellent job at defending inside the arc, especially with Embiid on the floor. 

Despite Embiid’s struggles in the L2 games, the All-Star clear makes Philly more formidable. Again, I expect the Sixers to break out of their recent shooting slump here (Atlanta is just 23rd in defensive efficiency). With a healthy Embiid, they smoked the Hawks earlier in the year, 122-94, as they shot 53.5% from the field. That gave them a measure of revenge after being eliminated from LY’s playoffs by the Hawks, but you know Philly will be hungry for more. The Sixers’ last two losses were both by one point and they are better than their 11-11 SU record. Take the points. 8* Philadelphia

10* Sacramento State (10:00 ET): Both Montana and Sacramento State head into the Big Sky opener off humbling defeats. Stepping up in class to face a team from the Pac 12 did not go well for either side as Sacramento State lost 105-59 at Arizona on Saturday while Montana was an 87-47 loser in Oregon on Monday. While Montana had won three in a row prior to that blowout loss, they are at a disadvantage here, playing their third game in seven days and second straight time on the road. 

The loss to Arizona is the only game Sacramento State has played in the last nine days. The Hornets have had two more days to prepare for this conference opener than Montana has. That’s pretty key in a matchup where I don’t see much of an edge for the favorite, even if the amount of time between games was equal. Also, Sacramento State happens to be 5-0 ATS off its previous five SU losses. 

Then you’ve got to take into account the fact Montana is 0-3 SU/ATS on the road so far. While two of those games were against teams from “power conferences” (Miss State and Oregon), both went VERY badly (Montana lost by a combined 77 points) and the Golden Grizzlies also lost outright (as seven-point favorites) at North Dakota. An 89-83 home win last year, in overtime, marked the first time Sacramento State beat Montana since 2017. You have to figure they’ll be hungry for their first regulation win in the rivalry in nearly five years. At home, the Hornets are absolutely capable of pulling the outright upset here. Take the points. 10* Sacramento State

10* Under Thunder/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): While I did cash an Over ticket involving the Thunder last night, that required a 70-point fourth quarter with 41 points coming from the opposition. Losing two straight times to the Rockets (who have the worst record in the Western Conference) should tell you “all you need to know” about the current state of OKC, who has now lost seven in a row (five by seven points or less). It is highly unlikely that they will match last night’s 110 point effort here as that was the team’s highest scoring game in more than a month. 

Memphis had a seven-game Over run halted on Tuesday when they beat Toronto 98-91. Expect more low-scoring games to follow now that the Grizzlies are playing without leading scorer Ja Morant. The Grizz have not been anything close to “stout” at the defensive end (they allow the most points per possession in the league), but tonight they are facing the league’s second lowest scoring team (OKC averages only 99.0 PPG), so Under is going to be the call here. 

The Thunder’s paltry scoring average dips even further on the road, down to 95.2 PPG. But the one thing that they do well is holding teams to 43.9% shooting. They’ve even been a bit better defensively when on the road (42.5 FG% allowed), which is why the Under is 8-2 in Thunder away games this season. Last night, they held Houston under 30 points in each of the first three quarters before imploding in the fourth. I don’t see that happening again. Considering you’ve got the second-lowest scoring team in the league against a Morant-less Grizzlies, I just don’t see many points being scored in this one. 10* Under Thunder/Grizzlies

8* Utah Valley State (9:00 ET): So BYU is 6-0 and ranked #12 in the country right now. But despite that record, which includes an impressive beatdown of Oregon (in Portland), I’m not convinced the Cougars are even one of the top 25 teams in America. Yes, they proved me wrong when they went to Salt Lake City on Saturday and beat rival Utah 75-64 as one-point favorites. But they are much bigger favorites tonight at Utah Valley State and covering this spread is going to be a lot more problematic for them. 

Utah Valley State is no slouch as they bring a 6-1 SU record into this contest. Their lone loss came in the season opener, by 20 at Boise State. Since then, it’s been six straight wins, all of which have seen the Wolverines score 74 or more points. They are averaging 79.5 PPG here at home. So unless it’s some kind of unforeseen poor effort at the defensive end of the floor tonight, I see the Wolverines covering this spread pretty easily. My own power ratings say this spread should be single digits.

Coming off a win over Utah, this has the makings of a “letdown” game for BYU. Meanwhile, Utah Valley State should be incredibly fired up to be facing a “bigger” in-state foe. (The respective campuses are just five miles apart). Utah Valley already has pulled a couple upsets, one over Long Beach State and another against CBI Champion Pepperdine. An outright win here would be quite the achievement. I can’t say it’s going to happen, but the underdog will cover the generous number. 8* Utah Valley State

10* Over Rockets/Thunder (8:05 ET): You’ve got two bad teams here, meeting for the second time in three days and the fourth time this year. None of the previous three encounters have been particularly close. The home team has won all three times. It was the Rockets prevailing 102-89 on Monday, just 12 days after losing 101-89 in Oklahoma City. The teams also met in the second game of the season and that was the biggest blowout of all with the Rockets winning 124-91. In addition to every game being a blowout, all three previous meetings also stayed Under the total. In that regard, I look for a different story tonight. 

Houston has not won a road game all season. They are 0-11 SU away from home, though they have covered the number five times. But they enter Wednesday’s game not just off a win over OKC, but on a three-game SU win streak. Now that was preceded by a 15-game losing skid, so you shouldn’t get too excited. The 89 points they allowed to the Thunder on Monday was a season-low. But on the road, the Rockets are giving up 113.0 PPG. Don’t forget that two games ago, they were involved in a wild 146-143 final with Charlotte. Yes, the game went to OT. But there were still 270 combined points scored in regulation. On the road, don’t expect the same defensive effort we saw Monday. 

OKC has lost six in a row, though they had covered the spread in each of the five losses prior to going down in Houston 48 hours ago. The Thunder are obviously not a great team offensively, but you have to expect them to shoot better than the 35.6% we saw on Monday night. That game saw them go 7 for 43 (!) from three-point range, an absolutely abysmal number that will be improved upon - likely by a lot - tonight. Each of the previous three Houston-OKC encounters have seen both sides put up a ton of 3PA. I look for BOTH teams to shoot the ball better here than they did Monday (Houston was only at 41.7%). 10* Over Rockets/Thunder

10* Over S Illinois/Evansville (7:00 ET): We’re gonna try with the Over here on a Southern Illinois team that has seen the Under hit in all six of its games this season. The reason being this is a new “low watermark” for an SIU O/U. The previous low was 125.0. Now that game saw them score only 47 points against Northeastern, but I have to imagine the Salukis are going to shoot better than 29.6%, which is what they did vs. Northeastern. Most of the O/U lines for SIU games this season have been north of 130.0. I see some value here. 

Similarly, Evansville has had just one O/U line lower than tonight. They went Over (119.5) in that game, which ended up being a 69-60 loss to Akron. The Purple Aces followed that up by defeating Eastern Illinois on Sunday, 70-54 as 6.5-point road favorites. Five of their last six games would have gone Over tonight’s total, the exception being a game vs. Vermont when they shot just 32.7%. Let the record show that Evansville is 5-1 to the Over the L6 times they’ve been a home dog, a role they are in tonight. 

The last time these MVC teams played was December 28th of last year and that ended up being a very high scoring game, 84-72, with Evansville (+8) getting the surprise win in Carbondale. They shot 55.3% from the floor, including 17 of 29 from three-point range. While I don’t think the Purple Aces are going to shoot the ball that well again here, look for them to make enough shots that this game does go Over the total, which will be a first for SIU this year. Evansville is shooting the ball much better at home so far. 10* Over Southern Illinois/Evansville

10* Sacramento (10:05 ET): With the Western Conference being SO depth-shy this season, it feels like the perfect time for the Kings to end their mind-numbing 15-year playoff drought. But entering tonight, they are in 11th place, five games below .500 and two games back of where they’d need to be just to make the play-in round. The good news is that the season is still young. But if they wish to make the playoffs for the first time since 2007, they can’t afford to fall too far behind. They’ve already fired Luke Walton, which tells me there’s a real sense of desperation in Sacramento right now. 

The same sense of desperation doesn’t exist down in LA, but it probably should for a Lakers team that is just 11-11 SU and being outscored on a per game and per play basis. Now being without LeBron James for several games has played a role in that, but with James in the lineup the Lakers lost to the Kings 141-137 in triple overtime last week. They bounced back by beating the lowly Pistons on Sunday, but by just four points and again that was with LeBron in the lineup. 

 Most are going to want to lay this short number with the Lakers as they are playing with revenge. But it’s been nearly three weeks since the Lakers posted B2B victories and both of those were by only three points. In fact, five of the Lakers seven wins this month have been by five points or less and none have been by more than eight! They are just 4-12 ATS as favorites this season and I think the Kings, motivated by an early-season coaching change, are capable of beating the Lakers for a second time in less than a week. Take the points. 10* Sacramento

8* Pepperdine (10:00 ET): It is my view that Nevada should not be laying double digits here. While Pepperdine (losers of four in a row) is definitely struggling right now, the favored Wolf Pack are just 3-4 SU themselves and highly unlikely to replicate the efforts we saw from them in the L2 games, wins over George Mason and Washington in the Crossover Classic at Sioux Falls, SD. It’s been a long journey back to Reno (last 5 games all away from home) and the last time the Wolf Pack played here, they lost outright to another WCC team (San Diego) 75-68 as 13.5-point chalk. Take the points here.

Plus, while Pepperdine has been losing, most of the games have been close. The last three games were all decided by single digits, including a 59-56 game against Grand Canyon (who I just won with last night) on Saturday. The Waves never trailed by more than six in that one and were ahead with less than two minutes to go. Prior to that, they gave Fresno State and TCU tough games at the SoCal Challenge. 

Nevada is actually 0-2 against the WCC this season. Not only did they lose that home game to San Diego that I already mentioned, but they also gave up 96 points in a horrible loss at Santa Clara. They’ve also been torched for 102 points by South Dakota State! This is a bad team defensively, so Pepperdine is basically a lock to shoot better here than they did against Grand Canyon (35.1%) in the last game. The Waves are a (slightly) better three-point shooting team than Nevada and they are 6-1 ATS when on a three-game losing streak the L3 seasons. 8* Pepperdine

10* Long Beach State (10:00 ET): While I do not expect The Beach to win this game, it’s a generous number that they are taking from San Diego State and this should end up being closer than what the oddsmakers think. Just last Wednesday, LBSU did pull an outright upset, beating Wright State 85-76 as 10-point underdogs to earn their only win in the Naples Invitational. Coming off a humbling 80-43 loss to Murray State, it was somewhat of a shocking effort from LBSU, who basically led from start to finish. 

San Diego State is 4-2 SU on the year, but does not have a win by greater than 17 points and they just lost 58-43 to USC on Friday. That loss, which took place in Anaheim as part of the Wooden Classic, saw the Aztecs have a dreadful shooting effort as they made only 32.1% of their total field goal attempts and were 3 of 17 from three-point range. At halftime, they had just 15 points, their lowest scoring 1H since a game vs. Air Force back in January of 2019. Now I’m not going to make the case that The Beach can play defense like USC does. The Trojans are a Top 25 team. But take note that SDSU also barely survived games against inferior sides Arizona State and UT Arlington, winning those by a combined eight points. 

The key to this game will be LBSU speeding up the tempo. They play at one of the quickest paces in the country, averaging 76 possessions per game. Junior Joel Murray leads The Beach in scoring and has averaged 16.6 points over the L5 games. Three seniors have combined to average 43% of the team’s points this year. San Diego State, who plays at a very slow pace, has seen its leading scorer (Matt Bradley) go just 3 for 14 from three-point range in the L3 games. Take the points. 10* Long Beach State

8* Grand Canyon (10:00 ET): The Antelopes of Grand Canyon University face their second West Coast Conference opponent in three days here. Back on Saturday, they edged Pepperdine 59-56 but did not cover the number as 3.5 point favorites. This time GCU is an underdog as it heads to Loyola Marymount. It will be the first time this season that GCU is an underdog. They have a 5-1 SU record with the lone loss coming by seven (at home) to Wyoming. I think they’re the better team here, so take the points. 

Loyola Marymount is 4-2 SU. They lost the opener 75-64 (as seven-point favorites) to UT Chattanooga. The other loss was less surprising, as it came against Florida State, but it was a humbling defeat as the Lions went down 73-45 as 6.5-point dogs. Since that loss to FSU, LMU has defeated SMU (as a 3.5-point dog) and Prairie View A&M. The game vs. PV A&M was closer than expected (as in decided by three points) as LMU came in as 13.5-point chalk for that game. So they are just 1-2 ATS as favorites thus far and have just one win by greater than seven points.

Loyola Marymount actually trailed Prairie View A&M, a winless team, at the half on Saturday. They were very fortunate to get to the charity stripe 36 times as they converted 32 of those FT attempts. Without that, they probably would have lost the game. That Grand Canyon was able to win its last game, despite going 5 of 19 from three-point range, is a positive sign as I anticipate they’ll shoot a lot better tonight. When the Antelopes faced PV A&M earlier in the season, they won by 27. GCU has also held four of its six opponents below 60 points. 8* Grand Canyon

8* Illinois (9:00 ET): It might seem like an ideal time to fade the Fighting Illini, as they are coming off a very narrow win over UT Rio Grande Valley and have multiple players either injured or sick. But they still have Kofi Cockburn, who carried them against UTRGV with a career-high 38 points. Sometimes all you need is that one great player and Cockburn is definitely one of the best in the entire country this season. Despite their uneven start to the year, I think the Illini are going to take care of business here vs. Notre Dame in the opening day of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. 

Notre Dame just played in the Maui Invitational, which was held in Las Vegas this year. The Fighting Irish lost two of their three games in the desert, the one win coming against D-II Chaminade. They are now 0-4 ATS on the season as the final game of the tournament saw them blow a 10-point halftime lead against Texas A&M and lose 73-67 as 3.5-point favorites. That was a tough stretch of three games in three days for the Irish and while they’ve had the last four days off, I don’t think they’re ready for their first Top 25 opponent of the young season. 

Illinois is 0-4 ATS its last four games, including two outright losses, but I like the short number here in what is a favorable matchup. Cockburn and teammate Alfonso Plummer both went for 30+ against UTRGV, marking the first time since 1990 Illinois had two players go for 30+ in the same game. Notre Dame doesn’t defend well as opponents are making 42.7% from three-point range against them. And with Cockburn, the Illini should also be able to dominate down low. Lay the points. 8* Illinois

10* Utah (9:30 ET): Two 5-0 teams meet in Salt Lake City tonight with Utah hosting rival BYU. Brigham Young is ranked (#18), but that’s basically based on one win - an admittedly impressive 81-49 thrashing of Oregon. But I told you to fade this team earlier in the week and sure enough they failed to cover the spread against Texas Southern. Here, the Cougars won’t enjoy the same kind of size advantage they had in their last game. I look for Utah to hand them their first loss of the year.

The Utes don’t have a marquee win like BYU does, but four of their five wins have been by double digits. In addition to having the home court advantage, the schedule sets up nicely for Utah, who has not played since Sunday when they beat Tulsa 72-58 in Daytona Beach. That was a game they controlled start to finish. 

This is BYU’s first “true” road game of the season. Utah is 23-7 SU its last 30 home games and is looking to avenge an 18-point loss in Provo from last season. These teams have a very similar statistical profile with Utah having slight edges in both PPG allowed and FG% defense. In the end, it boils down to the home court edge, more rest and revenge. 10* Utah

8* Cincinnati (2:00 ET): Cincinnati returns home after playing two tough opponents in the Hall of Fame Classic at Kansas City. One of the games went well as the Bearcats upset #14 Illinois, rallying back from a 15-point deficit to win by 20 (as 9.5-point underdogs). But the next day saw them “run out of gas” in a 73-67 loss (as 5-point underdogs) to #13 Arkansas. The Bearcats are hosting Monmouth on Saturday, an opponent they should blowout. Cincy has won its first four home games by an average of 21 points. 

Monmouth is 5-0 ATS with its only SU loss coming by two in the opener against Charlotte. Since that opening loss, the Hawks have beaten Towson, Lehigh, St. Joe’s and Princeton. So this will be a big step up in class and the first of six consecutive road games over the next 2+ weeks. The Hawks should be no stranger to the road at this point; three of their first five games were played away from home. But this one will be - by far - the toughest. Monmouth lost roughly half of its offensive production from last season. 

I know that there’s the risk of this being a “flat spot” for the favorite, who is coming off B2B games against Top 15 opponents. But being off a loss, their first of the 2021-22 season, should have Cincinnati properly motivated in this one. The Bearcats are playing outstanding defense thus far, holding teams to just 33.9% shooting overall and 24% from three-point range. Monmouth isn’t going to cover every game and this feels like the spot where their ATS win streak comes to crashing halt. 8* Cincinnati

8* Portland (10:05 ET): Going to take a chance with the Blazers here as they are catching a decent number. Now it’s against Golden State, who is 16-2 SU and looking like the best team in the league. It’s also a road game for Portland, and they’ve struggled in those, going 1-8 both straight up and against the spread. But prior to losing by just four points in Sacramento, this team had won four in a row, albeit all at home. I think taking the points is the right move here as Portland is one of the few teams capable of matching the Warriors at the offensive end. (Blazers are #4 in offensive efficiency). 

Golden State’s two losses this year have been by a total of seven points and one of them was in overtime. So, yeah, I’d say it’s been a really impressive start. They have - by far and away - the league’s top point differential as they are beating opponents by an average of 13.5 PPG. They’ve won five straight, four of those coming by double digits. But this figures to be their toughest test since facing Brooklyn. It comes after a holiday and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Dubs come out a bit “sluggish” in this one. They were down 19 in the 2Q Wednesday against Philadelphia, who was short-handed and playing its sixth straight road game. 

If they are to get an advantage, I don’t think the Blazers will let the Warriors “off the hook” the same way the Sixers did. I know it’s been a struggle on the road. Portland’s lone win away from home so far was against Houston. But the team played well in Sacramento. Damian Lillard had 32 points and 10 assists while Jusuf Nurkic contributed a season-high 28 points and 17 rebounds. You know the underdog is going to come in highly motivated for this one and Golden State isn’t going to win every game. Portland has averaged 117.6 points in its L5 games, so they can easily stay within the number here. 8* Portland

10* Over Suns/Knicks (7:05 ET): If you thought the Suns were going to “regress” after LY’s surprising run to the NBA Finals, perhaps it’s time to reassess. Phoenix is the hottest team in the league right now, having won 14 in a row. They are 15-3 overall. The only team with a better record right now is Golden State, who is 16-2 SU. The Suns have won six in a row on the road, however the last two away games - a 115-111 win over San Antonio and 120-115 win over Cleveland - were both close against subpar opposition. That should give the Knicks some semblance of hope heading into tonight’s contest.

New York is off what it should consider a big win as they beat the Lakers 106-100 on Tuesday. Although LeBron James did not play for LA in that one, the Knicks will gladly take the win after they had lost four of their previous six games. But what I’m choosing to focus on here is the fact the last eight Knicks games have all stayed Under the total. That’s quite the streak. But it can’t last forever and I’d be really surprised if we don’t start to see Knicks’ games get a bit higher scoring. The L5 have seen them average only 101.0 PPG. That’s down from 107.2 for the season. They are allowing just 99.2 points the L5 games, down from 106.4 for the season. 

Phoenix can definitely score. They come in averaging 112.3 points per game (tied for #2 in the league) and their L4 games have all gone Over the total. The Suns have shot better than 50% in each of those last four games. So they really are the ideal opponent for this Knicks’ Under streak to come to an end. Both times these teams met last season, the end result was an Over. There were 228 and 233 total points scored in those two games.  The Over is 5-0 the previous five times the Knicks have been a home dog. 10* Over Suns/Knicks

10* Penn State (7:00 ET): LSU has shot up the power rankings, thanks to an impressive 5-0 SU/ATS start where they are outscoring the opposition by 34.4 points per game. To put things in perspective, that’s a wider average margin of victory than #1 Gonzaga. But the Tigers have also yet to play anybody from a “power conference.” They’ve faced LA Monroe, Texas State, Liberty, McNeese State and Belmont so far. Of those five teams, only Belmont would rank in the top 150 nationally. So don’t be surprised to see the Tigers tested on Friday. I look for this to be their first ATS loss of the young season. Take the points. 

Penn State is 3-1, but at the opposite end of the spectrum (from LSU) when it comes to the point spread as their ATS record is 0-4. Early in the season, the Nittany Lions suffered a rather shocking 81-56 defeat at the hands of UMass, which obviously has affected their own power rating. But since that loss (where they were four-point road favorites), PSU has won B2B games, beating both St. Francis NY and Cornell by double digits. Now those aren’t exactly the most impressive of opponents either, but the Nittany Lions did tie a program-record with 15 made three-pointers against Cornell on Monday. 

This game is being played in Florida as part of a Holiday Tournament. It’s the first time Penn State is an underdog this season. Obviously, I’m not shocked by that. But with the Nittany Lions at 0-4 ATS and LSU at 5-0 ATS, I believe we’re getting a solid value on the dog here. PSU has three double digit scorers, two of which (Lundy and Sessoms) combined to make 11 of those 15 threes in the last game. With LSU yet to play a “real opponent” and this also being their first game away from Baton Rouge, it will be interesting to see how they respond to what figures to be a close game. 10* Penn State

10* Towson (9:30 ET): This game is part of the Las Vegas Invitational, which is a four-team tournament involving UAB, New Mexico, San Francisco and Towson. Not exactly the most compelling field, but we do have an undefeated San Francisco team that’s 6-0 SU. The Dons have been quite active thus far, but despite their perfect SU record, they are just 2-4 ATS with two wins coming by five points or less. This will be the first time they’ve left home this season and I’m going to take the points in what should be a challenging game for them. 

Towson comes in with a 3-2 SU record, but they are 4-1 ATS. Both SU losses were by single digits. One was to Monmouth, which was a surprise as the Tigers were 3.5 point home favorites for that game. The other was at Pittsburgh, a more impressive showing as they covered as six-point underdogs. After losing to Pitt 63-59, Towson quickly rebounded by shooting 51% in a 76-61 win over Penn two nights ago. That loss to Pitt is the only game where the Tigers didn’t top 70 points. 

These teams met last year on Thanksgiving Day with USF emerging victorious 79-68 at the Mohegan Sun in Connecticut. I’m looking for a closer battle this year. Both teams have done an exceptionally good job at defending the three-point line thus far. The thing is, I expect Towson to shoot better from distance in this game. That may sound strange considering they are just 27.5% from behind the arc through five games. But that percentage is bound to improve. They were just 4 of 17 vs. Penn (on 3PA) and still scored 76 points. 10* Towson

8* North Texas (2:30 ET): 4th ranked Kansas should be considered the favorite here in the ESPN Invitational, which takes place in Kissimmee, FL. The only other ranked team in the field is #10 Alabama. But don’t be surprised if the Jayhawks struggle a bit in this first round matchup with stingy North Texas. The Jayhawks have not played in a week, so there may be some rust. There are also changes to the rotation with Jalen Wilson set to return from a suspension and two players injured. Bottom line: I’m taking the points in this Thanksgiving Day matchup. 

North Texas is actually 7th in the country in points allowed (52.7 per game). The Mean Green really whipped TX-Arlington in its last game, winning 64-36. It was 26-3 out of the gate and they allowed just 12 points in the first half. Now, an earlier loss to Buffalo and B2B games with 35% shooting is a bit of concern when facing Kansas. But I expect the Mean Green to shoot a little bit better in this one. This is a team that’s gone 6-1 ATS its L7 neutral site games. 

But it’ll be the North Texas defense that’s the key to this one. I don’t see Kansas scoring 87 points here as they have in each of their first three games. While the margins of victory continue to grow for Bill Self’s team and they are off a 29-point win over Stony Brook, the Jayhawks are just 5-14 ATS their L19 games coming off a SU win by 20 or more points. They were actually trailing Stony Brook with seven minutes to go in the first half. This is Kansas’ toughest opponent since the opener. 8* North Texas

10* Texas Southern (9:00 ET): BYU is ranked #18, basically on the strength of one win - a shocking 81-49 demolition of then-#12 Oregon. Now that’s an impressive win (especially considering it came in Portland). But the Ducks were overrated going into that game according to my power ratings. Now BYU is too. The Cougars are not #18 in my power ratings, nor are they even in the Top 25. In fact, they barely crack the Top 35. With them laying a big number Wednesday night, it seems like an opportune time to fade.

Texas Southern is the opponent. While winless at 0-5 SU, the Tigers are 4-1 against the spread. All five games have been on the road, just like this one and next seven they’ll play! That is an insane start to the season. But so far the Tigers have been game. Four of the losses have been by single digits and they’ve played at multiple big-time schools, including NC State, Washington & St. Mary’s. Critics will point to a 17-point loss at Oregon just because BYU schooled the Ducks, but I think that’s unfair. 

TX Southern had to go to Eugene to face Oregon, rather than get them at the “neutral setting” of Portland. Remember that this is a team that was in the NCAA Tournament a year ago and won a “First Four” game. They led NC State at halftime on Sunday. This is a program on a 44-23 ATS run when facing teams with a winning record. BYU heads to Utah this weekend, so this very much has the makings of a “lookahead” spot for them. Prior to beating Oregon, the Cougars first two wins were both by 10 points or less. My number say this spread should be several points lower. 10* Texas Southern 

10* Atlanta (8:30 ET): Here’s a shocking stat for you: the Hawks are 0-9 ATS on the road. No other team in the NBA is either perfect or winless against the spread, at home or on the road. It’s just the Hawks. They are also 1-8 SU away from home, so things have not been going well - at all - on their travels. However, a recently completed five-game home stand saw Atlanta go 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS. The lone game they didn’t cover was Monday vs. OKC when they were 13-point favorites and won by only 12. 

I think it’s got to be time for the Hawks to snap this shocking ATS losing skid on the road. They’ll be visiting a San Antonio team that simply isn’t very good this year. I’ve got the Spurs rated 25th in my personal power ratings, probably the lowest they’ve ever been in the Greg Popovich era. Only three other teams from the West are rated lower - New Orleans, OKC & Houston. The Spurs have lost five straight, three of those coming by double digits. It was a game effort against red-hot Phoenix on Monday, but they still came up a few points short in that one. 

That Suns-Spurs game wasn’t even close entering the 4Q as SA was behind by 15. They shot just 5 of 20 from three-point range. Now the Spurs do score a lot more at home. But Atlanta is averaging 117.4 PPG during its current win streak while San Antonio has averaged only 101.6 PPG during its losing streak. These are two clubs going in opposite directions right now and I expect the Hawks to pick up their first ATS road win of 2021-22. Lay the points. 10* Atlanta

9* Orlando (7:05 ET): I am fully aware just how poorly the Magic played their last time out. It was a humbling 123-92 defeat at the hands of the Bucks and it was honestly even worse than that final score suggests. Orlando not only faced a franchise record 41-point deficit at halftime, but at one point trailed by as many as 51! How then could I possibly turn around and endorse them here? Well, the Magic won’t be facing the reigning NBA Champs tonight. Instead, they are hosting an overrated Charlotte side. 

The Hornets are 5th in the East with an 11-8 SU record, but still have a negative point differential on the season. They’ve gotten hot recently, winning six of seven while also going 6-1 ATS. But they were underdogs in virtually every one of the games. In fact, the one time they were favored, it was a single point. This game will mark just the fourth time all season that Charlotte has been favored and the first by more than five points. It must be noted that when they were five-point favorites vs. Cleveland earlier this month, the Hornets lost outright. 

Orlando is only 1-6 SU/ATS at the Amway Center thus far, but it’s been 10 days since they last played a home game. They are coming off a brutal road trip that saw them face the Hawks, Knicks, Nets and then the Bucks twice. I think that after suffering such an embarrassing defeat on Monday, the Magic are going to come out pretty motivated here. Charlotte not only has a losing road record, but they are 29th in the league in scoring defense. Take the points. 9* Orlando 

8* UCLA (10:00 ET): Who could forget the game these teams played last April in Indianapolis? Jalen Suggs’ 37-foot buzzer beater in overtime gave Gonzaga a 93-90 victory and sent them to the National Championship Game against Baylor. Of course, things did not end well for the Zags. They lost to Baylor, ending what had been a perfect season to that point. Now UCLA gets its chance for revenge. The Bruins were not just an 11-seed in last season’s tournament, but also relegated to the “First Four.” Now they are ranked as the #2 team in the entire country. 

Gonzaga is #1, but is not as strong as the team that won its first 31 games last year. Suggs is gone as are two other starters from the 31-1 team. Mark Few has reloaded in Spokane, but this is a tricky early season matchup. I know that the Zags had no problem winning last night as they crushed Central Michigan 107-54 as 34-point favorites. That was their fifth straight double digit win to open the season and four of those have come by 27 or more points. The one exception was when Zags defeated Texas (who is currently #8 in the poll) by 12. Still, I think this is too many points to lay in such a high-profile encounter that’s taking place in a neutral setting (Las Vegas). 

As this is a tournament, UCLA also played yesterday. They defeated Bellarmine 75-62, but did not cover the 22.5-point spread. While that obviously wasn’t as impressive as the Zags’ win, the Bruins got to play their game earlier in the day, so they have had a few extra hours of rest compared to Gonzaga. All but one of UCLA’s wins this season (a 9-point win over Villanova) have been by double digits so far. As the revenge-minded squad, they come in more motivated and with them also having more returning experience from last season, I’ll gladly take the points. 8* UCLA

10* Kansas State (9:30 ET): Arkansas is yet another team that my own personal power ratings do not believe should be in the Top 25. The Razorbacks are 3-0, so give them credit for that, but they are 1-2 ATS with the lone cover coming last time out in a 93-80 win over Northern Iowa. Even that game, which took place last Wednesday, was close as the teams exchanged the lead 18 times and the Hogs were only up one (79-78) with under three minutes remaining. I think it’s a good idea to take the points here. 

A major area of concern right now for Arkansas is that they are one of the worst teams in the country at defending the three-point line. They let Northern Iowa sink 17 of 37 attempts, so the first three opponents are hitting 43.4% from behind the arc. Kansas State happens to be shooting a very similar percentage from three-point range as the Wildcats are 2-0, having beaten Florida A&M and Nebraska-Omaha. Despite winning those games by a combined 25 points, KSU is 0-2 ATS. But here, we obviously don’t need to worry about laying points. 

Though this is technically a neutral site game in Kansas City, part of the Hall of Fame Classic, I think there’s a bit of an edge towards Kansas State in terms of the venue. There is also a lot of turnover on the Arkansas roster compared to last season. I don’t think they can count on Miami FL transfer Chris Lykes scoring 26 points (a career-high) again, like he did vs. Northern Iowa. Kansas State is 5-2 ATS its last seven games as a neutral site underdog. 10* Kansas State

10* Over Hornets/Wizards (7:05 ET): Both of these teams have been going Under quite a bit recently. That includes a head to head meeting with one another, back on the 17th, which was won by Charlotte 97-87. This recent rash of Unders is a little surprising, at least for the Hornets, who rank 29th (next to last) in the NBA in scoring defense, giving up 113.7 PPG. So I think that we’re “due” for an Over tonight. 

Not surprisingly, the total for tonight’s rematch is several points lower than where it was for last week’s meeting. It’s also on track to be the lowest O/U line for any Charlotte game this season. The previous low was 216.5 for a game vs. Indiana on Friday. Interestingly enough, that was the ONLY time in the Hornets’ last six games that the Over hit. The final score was 121-118. So I’m seeing some real value on this number.

Both teams are off to surprisingly good starts this season. Especially the Wizards, who are 7-1 SU at home where they are averaging 112.0 PPG. That’s a dramatic increase from how many points they are scoring on the road. In addition, you’ve got to figure they’ll shoot better than they did last week vs. Charlotte when they finished at just 36.7% from the field. The Wiz were just 8 of 42 from three-point range in that game! 10* Over Hornets/Wizards

8* Seton Hall (6:00 ET): Seton Hall has a shot at knocking off the Big 10’s two “blueblood” programs in consecutive games. I really like their chances of accomplishing this feat. Going into last Tuesday’s game at Michigan, I made it pretty clear that I consider the Pirates to be one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. I had them plus the points (+8) on the road against the Wolverines and sure enough, they delivered the outright upset, winning 67-65. My power rankings say Seton Hall is a Top 10 team in the country right now, so I will again take them here (laying a short number) vs. Ohio State.

Those same power rankings are NOT as bullish on Ohio State. Therefore, it was NOT a shock to see the Buckeyes go down 71-65 at Xavier last Thursday. Currently ranked #19 in the polls, OSU is likely to drop out when the new rankings are released. Again, my power ratings didn’t even consider them a Top 25 team in the first place. This is now a team that’s 1-3 ATS on the year and barely escaped Akron in the season opener, winning by just one point. Don’t forget that the Buckeyes were eliminated in the Opening Round of the NCAA Tournament last March, by 15-seed Oral Roberts. 

Due to the pandemic, OSU had not played a “true” road game in front of fans since the 2019-2020 season. It was not a good sign that they never led against Xavier. This game is being played in Fort Meyers, FL, part of a tournament, and I think it’s clear who the better team is at this point. Seton Hall is deep (plays 10 guys) and believes it is one of the best teams in the country. With them holding their first three opponents to 31.4% shooting, including 13.3% (!) from three-point range, I strongly believe in them as well. 8* Seton Hall

10* Arizona (9:30 ET): While Arizona turned out NOT to be a winning bet Friday night (they won, but failed to cover), my point that they are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now still stands. They are now 4-0 after beating Wichita State in overtime on Friday. In the second half of that game, it seemed like they were headed for a fourth straight cover (up double digits) but wilted down the stretch and allowed the Shockers to tie them and force OT. The Wildcats then scored the first nine points of the extra session before again allowing their opponents to get close.

Michigan rebounded nicely from its first loss of the season, beating UNLV late Saturday night 74-61 as 12-point favorites. But remember I successfully faded the Wolverines earlier in the week, when they lost outright (as eight-point favorites) to Seton Hall. Right now, I’d say Seton Hall and Arizona are my two most underrated teams in the country, so it’s some tough early scheduling for the Maize and Blue. I think that the #4 team in the country is about to suffer its second loss of the season. 

Arizona came into the Wichita State game ranked #1 in the country in effective field goal % defense and two-point FG% allowed. Sure enough, the Shockers did not shoot the ball well at all (33.8% overall, including 15 of 41 on 2-pt attempts!). But the problem is the Wildcats struggled from three-point range, sinking only 5 of 27 attempts from beyond the arc. I look for a team that’s scored 82 or more in every game to be better from distance tonight and upset the favored Wolverines. Take the points. 10* Arizona

8* Arizona (10:00 ET): A pair of 3-0 teams meet tonight in Vegas with Wichita State taking on Arizona. The underdog Shockers have done a good job defensively in the early going, giving up just 55.3 points per contest. However, two of their wins (Jacksonville State, South Alabama) have been by six points or less, so they’re struggling to score. Even in their biggest win to date, 65-51 over Tarleton State on Tuesday, they weren’t exactly “efficient” on offense. That’s a problem when facing Arizona.

The Wildcats come in averaging 94 PPG and have scored 81 or more in every game. Their wins have come against Northern Arizona, UTRGV and North Dakota State. The closest any of those three opponents came was within 29 points. So it’s been a very impressive start in Tucson and my power ratings are INCREDIBLY high on them. And that’s for good reason. Right now, they rank 1st in the entire NCAA in effective field goal percentage allowed and two-point FG% allowed. 

I know that Wichita State is likely to get back Tyson Etienne, one of its best players, who missed the Tarleton State game. But with Etienne in the lineup the team struggled somewhat in the first two games. I just don’t see Wichita State having the requisite amount of offense to “hang” here with Arizona, who has been just incredible at the defensive end as well. I know that earlier in the week I said that Seton Hall might be the most underrated team in the country right now, but Arizona might be even more underrated! 8* Arizona

10* Georgia (9:00 ET): We’ve got a matchup of 2-1 teams from the Peach State on Friday with Georgia hosting Georgia Tech. Of the two records, Georgia Tech’s is more disappointing as the Yellow Jackets have been favored in every game. They lost their season opener, 72-69 to Miami (OH), after missing their last six shots of the game. Being upset early in the season is nothing new for Ga Tech as they’ve previously gone down to the likes of Grambling, Wofford and Gardner-Webb in recent years. 

Since then, it’s been a pair of blowout victories for the Yellow Jackets, 77-52 over Stetson and 75-66 over Lamar. But take note it was a four-point game with Lamar in the 2H on Monday. Though it’s not a long trip to Athens, this will be Ga Tech’s first “true” road game of the season. Georgia’s loss came at Cincinnati, so they’re 2-0 SU at home with the wins coming against Florida International and South Carolina State. It was a 16-point win over SC State on Tuesday, though that wasn’t enough to cover the spread (-21.5). 

I think that Georgia Tech is still getting too much “residual credit” for winning the ACC Tournament last season. Multiple players from that team departed and this group is simply not as strong, especially with two players listed as questionable for tonight. Georgia has captured each of the L5 meetings between the teams (did not play last season) and I like them as a home dog here as my power ratings give the Yellow Jackets no real edge after factoring in the home court advantage. Take the points. 10* Georgia

10* Under Clippers/Grizzlies (8:05 ET): This will be the second meeting of the year between these teams. Back on October 23rd, the Grizzlies won a high-scoring contest, 120-114 as four-point road underdogs. That was the second game of the season for both teams. The Clippers found themselves at 1-4 SU through five games, but have turned it around in November (despite multiple injuries) by winning eight of their last nine. So Memphis should expect a tougher challenge in this second go-around. It should also be a much lower-scoring game. Take the Under. 

The sharp decline in scoring, league-wide, has been one of the big stories so far this NBA season. The Clippers are allowing only 102.5 PPG and Tuesday saw them hold San Antonio to just 92 in a comfortable win. With Kawhi Leonard out, Paul George has mostly carried the scoring burden at the offensive end. But he’s also gotten some help from unexpected contributors, such as Luke Kennard and Brandon Boston Jr on Monday. I wouldn’t expect a repeat effort from either of those two tonight. Also, key reserve Terrance Mann is likely still out due to an ankle injury. 

Memphis poured in a season-high 136 points Monday. But that was against lowly Houston. Six of the Grizzlies’ previous seven games had stayed Under the total. Monday was also only the second time in the last 11 games that the Grizzlies scored more than 108 points. They are more healthy than the Clippers are right now, but don’t expect Memphis to shoot as well as they did in the first meeting. The Under has hit the previous five times they have been an underdog. 10* Under Clippers/Grizzlies

10* Northern Illinois (8:00 ET): I’m a bit shocked by this pointspread as Missouri is coming off a terrible 80-66 loss (as 11-point favorites) to UMKC. The Tigers trailed by as many as 22 points in that game and only briefly led at the outset. They shot a woeful 4 for 14 from “downtown” (three-point range), missed 10 of 24 free throws and turned the ball over 18 times. Obviously, that loss should have Mizzou motivated coming into tonight, but covering the double digit spread is something I just do not see happening. 

Northern Illinois has already pulled one upset this season. In their season opener, they went across the country to Washington and won 71-64 as a 20-point underdog. Predictably, NIU came back “down to Earth” in the next game when it visited Indiana and lost 85-49. The Huskies couldn’t “hit water from a boat” in that one, making just 30.4% of their field goal attempts, including just 2 of 11 from three-point range. So they too should be in line for an improved effort tonight. 

Missouri wasn’t all that impressive in its opening game when it defeated Central Michigan 78-68 as a 16-point favorite. Having already failed twice as DD chalk, it’s difficult for me to understand why the oddsmakers have the Tigers laying so many points yet again. Especially with two players potentially out, one of them Jarron Coleman, who is a double digit scorer. Northern Illinois has done a solid job at getting to the free throw line thus far, averaging 26 attempts per game. Mizzou has now failed to cover six straight games, going back to last season. 10* Northern Illinois

8* Boise State (2:00 ET): The analysis for this matchup, which is a neutral site game in Charleston, SC, should sound “eerily familiar” to last night’s play on George Mason against Maryland. Once again, we’ve got a ranked team that has been less than stellar in the opening week of the season and my power ratings aren’t as high on them as the pollsters are. Yesterday, I talked about how Maryland had been “playing with fire” in its first few games, falling behind early only to pull out the win in the second half. Well, they lost. Don’t be surprised if the same thing happens to St. Bonaventure on Thursday. 

The 22nd ranked Bonnies are 2-0, but haven’t been all that impressive in either game. Don’t be fooled by the final score of that opening game with Siena. St. Bonaventure trailed for most of the first half and was only up by four going into the break. Things were even “scarier” Sunday against Canisius as the Bonnies were down nine with just 14 minutes left. Down the stretch, they turned things on defensively and were able to pull off a 69-60 win. But they did not come close to covering as they were 20.5-point favorites. Heading into their first game away from home, the Bonnies are outside the top 35 in my power ratings (same as Maryland yday). 

Boise State is coming off a 58-50 loss at UC Irvine. As you can tell from that score, the Broncos really struggled to make shots in that one, finishing at just 32.2% overall including a dreadful 3 of 22 from three-point range. At the same time, they allowed the Anteaters to make six of their nine 3PA. I anticipate the Broncos will shoot much better in this game, perhaps similar to the 51.6 FG% we saw in the opener vs. Utah Valley State. St. Bonaventure could be without A-10 Defensive POY Osun Osunniyi, who injured his back against Canisius. Take the points. 8* Boise State

8* Little Rock (10:00 ET): Little Rock will be looking for a perfect 4-0 start to the season tonight when they hit the West Coast to face Loyola Marymount. Obviously, the oddsmakers don’t like the Trojans’ chances here. But this seems like an awfully high number given the respective starts to the season by the two teams involved. Loyola Marymount is only 1-1 SU and lost outright (as 7-point favorites) in their only game against a D-I opponent (the opener vs. Chattanooga). Seems like an opportune time to grab the points. 

Little Rock’s season began with an outright upset as they went to Carbondale and beat Southern Illinois 69-66 as a 6.5-point dog. Since that time, the Trojans have faced a couple of non-board teams (Champion Christian College and Arkansas Baptist) and blew both opponents out, winning 115-51 and 91-60. Obviously, not a ton can be ascertained from those victories, but the fact Little Rock has already gone on the road and won as an underdog definitely sticks out to me. They should enter tonight’s game as a confident bunch. 

Not only did Loyola Marymount lose its opener to Chattanooga, but they could barely get by a non-board team (Arizona Christian) on Saturday, winning only 74-67. So you’ve got a Little Rock team that’s already recorded one upset on the road and then blown out two non-board teams taking on a LMU team that has already lost once outright as a home favorite and could barely get by a non-board team. Plus we’re getting double digits here. Thank you very much! 8* Little Rock

10* Mississippi State (8:00 ET): The oddsmakers seem to be a “step slow” in accounting for the respective starts of the two teams here. Mississippi State is 2-0 SU/ATS with blowout wins over North Alabama (75-49) and Montana (86-49). The Bulldogs were DD favorites in both games and obviously had little difficulty covering the spread. Per my own power ratings, this number should be north of -20 as MSU welcomes a struggling Detroit side to Starkville. Lay the points. 

Detroit’s early season schedule is nothing short of insane. They will play their first nine games on the road and this trip takes them all over the country and to the Bahamas. So far the Titans have lost at Wyoming (85-47) and Toledo (81-73). Their best player is Antoine Davis, the coach’s son, but despite a combined 37 points in the first two games he’s only shooting 35.9% overall including 3 of 14 from three-point range. Defensively, this team obviously has its issues having given up an average of 83 PPG so far. 

Making matters worse for the Titans here is that it’s looking probable that Miss State will have Rocket Watts in the lineup tonight. A transfer from Michigan State, Watts had hip surgery in June and has missed the first two games. The Bulldogs certainly didn’t need him as they won by a combined 63 points and this figures to be a third straight blowout win for them as they’ve got six players averaging at least nine points per game. They are 15th in the country in 3-point shooting (46.3%) and led 42-16 at halftime in their last game. 10* Mississippi State

10* Cleveland (7:35 ET): This spread is too high, even before taking into account the fact that Brooklyn is in the second game of a back to back. The Nets were hammered here at home last night by Golden State in a 117-99 loss that prompted HC Steve Nash to remark that his team doesn’t belong in the same conversation as some of the top teams in this league. The Nets are 10-5 SU overall, but 0-4 against the Warriors, Heat, Bulls and Bucks. Kevin Durant was held to a season-low 19 points Tuesday night and was clearly outplayed by Steph Curry. While it’s a drop in class tonight hosting Cleveland, I’ll be taking the points in this one. 

The Cavs have definitely been a surprise at the outset of the 2021-22 season. They are 9-6 SU and also tied for the best ATS record in the league at 10-4-1. I did play AGAINST the Monday night, but that was when they were a short home dog against a revenge-minded Boston team. Even that game was close, though I walked away with a winning ticket. Losing standout rookie Evan Mobley to an elbow injury definitely hurts, but this is a team that has yet to be blown out all year. 10* Cleveland

8* George Mason (7:00 ET): I “learned my lesson” with Maryland last week when I made the mistake of laying the points with them against George Washington. They couldn’t come close to covering the 17-point spread and actually trailed at the half. Falling behind seems to be a problem for the Terrapins as they also trailed Vermont at halftime over the weekend. So while they’re now 3-0 SU and ranked #20 in the country, the Terps sure seem like an overrated side to me. I’ll fade them as DD favorites here on Wednesday. 

George Mason also comes into this game at 3-0 SU. While they’ve faced lesser competition, the Patriots haven’t had nearly the kind of close calls Maryland has. All three GMU victories thus far have been by at least 21 points and the average margin of victory is 26.7 PPG. They are 3-0 ATS. On Sunday, they held Morgan State to 34% shooting (7 of 24 from 3-pt range) in a dominant 90-53 effort, their biggest win to date. George Mason’s best player is Josh Oduro, who is averaging 19.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game so far. As a team, the Patriots are shooting 40.5% from three-point range. 

After trailing at the half in B2B games, Maryland seems ripe to be upset. They’ve yet to win a game by more than 14 points and against Vermont they were down seven in the second half. James Graham III remains suspended for this game. I know GMU is 0-9 SU all-time vs. Maryland, but this year’s team is averaging 83.7 PPG so far (2nd most among A-10 teams) and seems primed for a breakout under 1st year HC Kim English. My own power ratings don’t have Maryland in the Top 35. Take the points. 8* George Mason

analysis soon

8* Philadelphia (10:05 ET): These two teams each finished first in their respective conferences last year in the regular season. But neither got to the NBA Finals. Both were actually ousted in the second round of the playoffs, the Sixers by the Hawks and the Jazz by the Clippers. Fast starts to the 2021-22 campaign had them each at/near the top again, but both have since faded. Philly comes into tonight on a four-game losing streak while Utah has lost four of its last five, including two straight. I think you have to take the points here. 

Now I’m well aware that the Sixers are without Joel Embiid as well as several other key contributors. They haven’t won since Embiid tested positive for COVID-19. But all four losses have been by nine points or fewer. On Saturday against Indiana, the 76ers got 24 points from Tyrese Maxey and 16-11 (points & rebounds) from Andre Drummond. Scoring wasn’t a problem as the team finished with 113 points. The problem was letting the Pacers shoot a blistering 57.3% from the field. 

I do not see that happening again tonight. Utah has struggled to score of late, not topping 105 points in three of its last four contests. They were down 22 in the fourth quarter against Miami on Saturday, the second straight game they fell behind by double digits. With this being a national TV game (TNT), the Sixers aren’t going to want to get embarrassed, so look for them to be plenty motivated and keep this game closer than the oddsmakers think. They’ve covered seven of the last eight meetings with Utah. 8* Philadelphia

8* Seton Hall (9:00 ET): So my own power rankings very much agree that Michigan is a top four team in the country. But those same rankings also LOVE Seton Hall, calling them a Top 10 team as well. So I’m going to go ahead and grab the points here in what is a rematch of the 1989 NCAA Title Game. They’ve only met one time since - eight months later - which was before current Wolverines HC Juwan Howard even showed up to play at his alma mater. Expect a great game here as Michigan should be on “upset alert.” 

Beating Yale may not seem like a big deal, but the way Seton Hall did it on Sunday was quite impressive. The Pirates crushed the Ivy League favorites, winning 80-44 as 11.5-point chalk. No one played more than 22 minutes as the Pirates dominated the glass (53-37 rebounding edge) and held Yale to 24.2% shooting. In both games this season, Seton Hall has held the opponent below 50 points and 30% shooting. This is a deep team that believes in itself. Jared Rhoden said they are “one of the best teams in the country” and I agree! 

Michigan had a closer than expected win over Buffalo in the season opener, 88-76, just barely missing out on covering the number. Then they routed Prairie View A&M (as expected) 77-49 as 23.5-point favorites. That game was played in D.C. over the weekend. While I respect the Wolverines, this is just too many points to be laying against an underrated Seton Hall team that I expect to make a lot of “noise” nationally. The Pirates are 36-16 ATS L52 as a road underdog. 8* Seton Hall

10* Charleston (8:30 ET): While the pollsters have North Carolina in the Top 20, I do not. The Tar Heels are off to a 2-0 SU start, but they’ve hardly been impressive in doing so, failing to cover the spread against both Loyola MD and Brown. Hubert Davis’ team is not playing good defense as they allowed Brown to score 87 points, including 50 in the first half! That game very much came down to the wire as UNC only led by three points in the final two minutes. Laying this many points with the Tar Heels in the first road game of the season seems like a bad idea. 

Charleston is 3-0. They too have a win over Loyola MD, theirs coming this past weekend by a score of 79-72. While the Cougars did not cover the spread (they were -9.5), they led the entire game and by as many as 17 points in the first half. This is a veteran team with four seniors accounting for 46% of the offensive production thus far. Through three games, the Cougars are averaging 90.3 PPG (2nd most among CAA teams) and that seems like a problem for a North Carolina team that isn’t playing good defense at the start of the season. 

The thing is, Charleston hasn’t even shot that well and they are still scoring a lot of points. Each of the last two games, the Cougars have shot worse than 40% from the field. North Carolina has shot better than 50% in each of its two games, yet still is 0-2 ATS. Both teams have first year head coaches. It remains to be seen how the unproven Davis can fill the shoes of the legendary Roy Williams in Chapel Hill. Meanwhile, Charleston hired Pat Kelsey away from Winthrop and he brings an up-tempo attack that should keep the road favorite on its heels. Take the points. 10* Charleston

10* Boston (7:05 ET): This is a huge revenge game for the Celtics, who blew a 19-point lead here in Cleveland on Saturday night and lost 91-89. It was an absolutely shocking turn of events after the Cavs were held to just nine points in the first quarter and trailed for almost the entirety of the game. Said Cavs coach J.B. Bickerstaff, “There is no basketball reason why we should have won, but there was a collective spirit," "Momentum is a hell of a thing. When you start to ride that wave in either direction, it changes the game.” Now personally, I’m not a big believer in “momentum.” I expect Boston to get its revenge Monday. 

Cleveland is 9-5 SU and currently fourth in the Eastern Conference standings. Not sure anyone was expecting to see that. The Cavs came into the season with the fifth lowest projected win total in the league. The fact they are a league-best 10-3-1 ATS affirms how they have caught many, including the oddsmakers, by surprise. But at some point you have to expect this run will subside. The Cavs have been rather fortunate to win four games by three points or less this month. I still have them 22nd in the power rankings and remain unsold if they’ll even finish with a .500 record. 

 Cleveland is also missing some players, such as Lauri Markkanen, Lamar Stevens, Collin Sexton and Kevin Love. All of those players were out Saturday, making the 19-point rally seem all the more improbable. You’ve got to believe that Boston will shoot better than it did on Friday. I’ve still got them rated as the better team here - comfortably so. That means I’ve got no issue laying a short number in a revenge spot. They were up 19 on this team 48 hours ago. I’ve got all the confidence in the world that they’ll win here. 10* Boston

10* Penn State (7:00 ET): I was a little surprised to see this line open up so low. I know that Penn State is not exactly the most formidable Big 10 team, but they are certainly a lot better than UMass at this stage of the game. While the Nittany Lions failed to cover the spread in their opener, they still won by 16 (as a 17-point favorite). UMass won by a similar score in its season opener (77-60 over MD-Balt County) as a 10-point favorite, but then went to Yale and got crushed by 20 in a game they were favored to win. 

PSU has a new head coach for 2021-22. His name is Micah Shrewsberry, who was previously an assistant under Brad Stevens at both Butler and with the Celtics in the NBA. Shrewsberry inherits a fairly experienced squad, one that underperformed last year under an interim coach. (Former HC Pat Chambers was forced to resign last October due to conduct. I think the Nittany Lions are going to be an improved squad this year. They shot 51.7% against Youngstown State last Wednesday. 

UMass lost its leading scorer from LY to the transfer portal. So they figure to take a step back. COVID-19 wreaked havoc on the Minutemen’s schedule in 2020-21, so playing three games in a week is something they haven’t done in quite some time. They were shredded by Yale, giving up 91 points. It won’t be any easier here against an opponent that shot well in its first game and comes in with more rest. Lay the points. 10* Penn State

10* Over Warriors/Hornets (7:05 ET): For weeks now, I’ve been saying that while the Warriors were clearly ascending back to the top of the NBA pecking order, they would not again reach the heights of their previous championship teams. Well, maybe we need to revisit that thought. Because I’ve got Golden State #1 in my power ratings right now. They’ve won seven straight games coming into Sunday and covered the spread in all seven. 

Charlotte is a team that will be looking to pull a third consecutive upset tonight. Their last two games have seen them defeat Memphis (as a 4.5 point dog) and New York (as a 2.5 point dog). Prior to those two upset wins, the Hornets did drop five in a row - both SU and ATS. They’re now back at .500, but if I was a betting man (and I am), I’d predict them to finish with a worse record than last year. 

These teams did meet earlier this month and the Warriors won 114-92. It was an awful shooting night for the Hornets as they made just 37.4% of their FG attempts, including only 10 of 36 from three-point range. Expect them to shoot better tonight as they are at home. The team’s scoring average jumps to 118.2 PPG here in Charlotte. As for Golden State, who has played only three road games so far, they should have no difficulty scoring on what is the league’s 30th ranked scoring defense (116.0 PPG allowed). As a reminder, there are only 30 teams in the league. 10* Over Warriors/Hornets

8* San Antonio (3:30 ET): The Spurs are a better team than the Lakers right now, even though they have an inferior WL record. Though 4-8 SU, San Antonio has actually scored more points than what they’ve allowed this season. The Lakers, despite a winning SU record (7-6) can’t say that. They have a -2.3 PPG differential. Something else the Lakers can’t say (right now) is that they have a healthy LeBron James. Friday night saw them lose to the T’wolves by 24 points here at home. 

San Antonio is also off a loss as they fell to Dallas by a score of 123-109. The loss dropped them to 0-4 SU off a win this season. They’ve also failed to cover the spread each of the last three times they’ve been off a win. But when off a loss, as they are here, the Spurs tend to play better. They’re a 5-0 ATS off their previous five losses and this includes a 136-117 win over OKC earlier this week. The Spurs had 16 fewer field goal attempts than the Mavs on Friday. That kind of discrepancy should not exist in this afternoon’s game. 

The Lakers dropped to 3-4 SU without James with Friday’s loss to Minnesota. They were outscored 40-12 in a decisive third quarter. This is a situation where it looks like the public is lining up to bet the favorite, but the lack of line movement is notable. San Antonio has been the better of these two teams on a per possession basis this year. The Spurs also have revenge for a four-point loss at home last month. The road team has won outright the L4 times these teams have met. Take the points. 8* San Antonio