10* Houston (8:35 ET): It's still only November, but the Rockets REALLY need a win here. Call it the "curse of Carmelo Anthony" or whatever else you'd like, but this team is only 4-6 SU and just lost to the Russell Westbrook-less Thunder on Thursday. It was their third straight game getting held under 100 points and the fourth time in the last five games! This is a team that was neck and neck w/ Golden State for the top spot in offensive efficiency last year and was within one game of the NBA Finals. There were only seven instances all of last year's regular season where the Rockets were held below 100 pts and one of them was the meaningless final game. I'm expect an 'A' game from them tonight in San Antonio. 

This isn't the same Spurs team as we're used to seeing as the entire core of the past several seasons is gone. But they still have Greg Popovich coaching and DeMar DeRozan has somewhat stepped into a leadership role. But, like Houston, the Spurs are off a pretty poor performance as they were held to only 88 points on 33.3% shooting Wednesday night in Miami. It was the lowest shooting percentage in a game by any Spurs team dating back to '08. LaMarcus Aldridge was a woeful 2 of 14 from the floor despite grabbing 16 rebounds. It was also San Antonio's second straight loss as they fell here at home to Orlando on Sunday. 

San Antonio has played only twice since Sunday while this is Houston's fifth game in nine days. There's no sugarcoating how bad the Rockets played in OKC as they trailed for the entire second half and got down by as many as 25 points. But before that they'd won three in row and were starting to show signs of a turnaround. Slow start to the season or not, I believe they are the better team here and I will lay the short number. They won three of four against the Spurs last season. 10* Houston

8* Over Nets/Nuggets (9:05 ET): Denver is back home, off just its second loss of the season. It was a shockingly low-scoring game, even w/ Memphis being involved, as they fell 89-87 Wednesday night. As you can tell from that final score, it was not a good shooting night, but especially for Denver as they finished w/ a 39.0 FG%. That was their lowest percentage for any game since the season opener and it was obviously their lowest scoring game to date. But upon this return home, we should see an automatic increase in scoring from their side as they average 113 PPG on 47% shooting. It also helps that the team they're facing tonight isn't exactly known as a defensive stalwart. Take the Over. 

Now Brooklyn is off B2B strong defensive performances, which is why they won both games. They held Philadelphia to just 97 points and then Phoenix to only 82 on 34.6% shooting. But the latter performance in particular will be almost impossible to duplicate as it came against such a bad team. In fact, the their two best defensive performances of the season came against possibly the two worst teams in the league (Cleveland, Phoenix). This opponent is probably a top five team in the league. The Nets are still allowing over 108 PPG for the year while scoring over 109 per game themselves. They have scored 120 or more in two of the past four games. 

This will actually be the first time in over a year that these teams have played as both meetings last year came quite early in the season. Interestingly enough, despite the "explosion" of scoring we've seen in the NBA this year, the O/U lines for LY's games were far higher than where this one is set at. Denver scored only 17 points in the 4Q vs. Memphis and Nikola Jokic took just ONE shot the entire game. Neither of those things will happen again here, I assure you. It's pretty surprising that the Nuggets are near the bottom of the league in number of possessions per game, but that shouldn't continue. The Over is 6-2 for Brooklyn the L3 seasons after holding their previous opponent under 90 points. The Over is 46-24 for Denver when facing a team that both scores and allows more than 106 PPG. 8* Over Nets/Nuggets

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Philadelphia finally won a road game, doing so Wednesday at Indiana, 100-94 as a 2.5-pt dog. Now they return home where they've yet to taste defeat (6-0 straight up). Two of those six wins have been by two points or less, however, one of them against Charlotte back on October 27th. It was a 105-103 final, a game where neither side had a lead of more than six points the entire second half. Therefore, taking the points in this rematch would seem prudent, especially considering the Hornets have the better YTD point differential (6th best in NBA!) and easily covered the last time.

Since losing to the 76ers, the Hornets have won three of four. The only loss was to Oklahoma City by four points. All three wins came by double digits. Though Kemba Walker is currently 2nd in the league in scoring at 28.1 PPG, this is a deep Charlotte team. Seven players were in double figures in a 32-point win over Cleveland and then five were in Tuesday's win over Atlanta. You may recall that I faded the Hornets in that spot vs. Atlanta (and came away w/ a half-point cover!), but it's important to note they were also double digit favorites. Here, they are underdogs, a role that has seen them go 3-1 ATS this season. Of the team's five losses, four have been by four points or less.

Going back to last season, Philly has taken the last five meetings from Charlotte. They swept the season series last year, also going 4-0 ATS, but all four games were contested after March 1st when the Hornets were pretty much out of contention. Charlotte missed 26 of 35 three-pointers in the last meeting, which probably won't happen again here considering the team is shooting a much more reasonable 36.5% from behind the arc for the season. Philadelphia's offensive production has been far more inconsistent and they've averaged just 102 PPG the L3 contests. Philly is a top five team in defensive efficiency, but Charlotte is top five in offensive efficiency. This could then boil down to the fact Charlotte is 11th in defensive efficiency while Philadelphia is 20th offensively. 10* Charlotte

8* UL Lafayette (7:00 ET): Tennessee is a top 10 team playing at home, but they're laying too many points here. Let's not put a ton of stock into the Vols' 81-46 over non-board team Lenoir-Rhyne either. The Bears did not have a single starter w/ more than one made field goal and they barely shot 20% from the field. Clearly, they were not a formidable opponent. But I believe the Ragin Cajuns can be as they too dominated a lesser opponent in their opener, scoring 121 points. Take the points. 

Louisiana shot a ridiculous 67.1% from the field en route to scoring 121 pts on the University of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Obviously, as is the case for UT, things will be nowhere near that easy tonight. But with six players scoring in double figures in the opener, the Ragin Cajuns certainly are capable of making a "run at it" this evening. This team shot 58.3% from three-point range in the opener. Am I a little concerned about the defense? Sure. But ULL can score enough to hang within a huge number. They won 27 games last season. This was a top 15 team nationally in scoring too.

Tennessee has a lot of hype, which may be working against it right now. I think there could be some defensive regression this year in spite of what we saw in the opener and all the talent back. Consider that over the last two seasons, the Vols are just 1-4 ATS when laying more than 12.5 points at home. They have bigger games they might be looking ahead to on the docket. This is the highest preseason ranking in school history. Two guards, Jalen Johnson and Lamonte Turner, are battling injuries and could be limited here. 8* UL Lafayette 

8* Evansville (8:00 ET): Both of these teams are in rebuild mode. Illinois is in the second year of their rebuild under HC Brad Underwood while Evansville is set to embark on its own, under 1st year HC Walter McCarty (yes, the former Kentucky standout). The situation almost begs for you to take the points as scoring should be at a premium in this game where both teams are trying to find their way. Both teams are expected to finish near the bottom of their respective conferences. Illinois, the favorite, allowed 73.8 PPG last season. Take the points.

The Illini bring back only four players from last season, one of them being talented guard Trent Frazier. He's pretty much the only holdover worth mentioning as the other key player figures to be highly touted freshman Ayo Dosunmu. Overall, Underwood will have SIX freshman playing for him this season, so this is a really young Illinois team. Such a young team could be likely to overlook an opponent like Evansville and is not a good candidate to lay points with. In the games that they were favored to win last season, the Illini only won by an average of 8.1 points per game. 

Evansville is going to have to deal w/ a press, but I feel the 1st game of the season allows you adequate time to prepare for that. Like Illinois, there is a lot of roster turnover here for the Purple Aces. It's top three scorers from last year are all gone and the three most talented players on the roster are all ineligible right now. That's hardly a good sign, but this team can play defense and hopefully that continues under McCarty. Lsat season, the Purple Aces ranked 11th in the country, giving up just 63.9 PPG. If they can keep Illinois close to that number, then they should cover w/ ease tonight. 8* Evansville

10* Over Sixers/Pacers (8:05 ET): In the Eastern Conference right now, you obviously have two very hot teams in Toronto and Milwaukee. Boston will obviously be a contender for the top spot as well. Then there are these two teams, probably the only other potential candidates for a top four spot. Philadelphia is having some major problems on the road however, as they're 0-5 SU away from home after taking a 25-point loss to Brooklyn in their last game. Indiana is also off a loss, by just four points at home, to Houston. But what I'm focused on here is the poor offensive performance each team had in their previous games. I look for those to be rectified this evening and for this nationally televised affair to go Over the total. 

The Sixers were just dreadful Sunday in Brooklyn, turning it over 28 times (a league-high for the season) and shooting just 20% from three-point range. There's virtually no way we see anything close to a duplication of those numbers tonight. Note it was Philly's second lowest scoring game of the season, the benchmark still being the season opener in Boston. They've scored at least 105 pts in every other game. You would have to go all the way back to October 23rd to find the ONLY time the Sixers have shot 50% in a game this seaosn. But you also have to factor in just how bad this team has been defensively on the road. Earlier I mentioned that they are still winless (0-5 SU) away from home. Well, a big reason for that is they are giving up 122.4 PPG in those five losses. 

Indiana has gone Under in five straight games and was held under 100 pts for just the third time this season its last time out. Certainly, few would have expected a final score of 98-94 for a matchup with Houston. The Pacers have been good defensively (7th in efficiency), especially at home where they are giving up just 99.4 PPG. But I look for a bit of different story to unfold tonight, obviously. Indiana missed 10 FT's in the four-point loss to Houston Monday. This was one of the league's better FT shooting teams last year, so they definitely "left some points" at the line. In their last five games, the Pacers are averaging only 100.6 PPG, but I look for that number to go way up after tonight's matchup. 10* Over Sixers/Pacers 

8* Western Carolina (7:00 ET): Wright State should not be laying this many points, in my opinion. They did win 25 games and the Horizon League last season, but this year's squad lost two of that team's key players - Grant Benzinger and Justin Mitchell - both of whom were double digit scorers. Now it has been B2B 20+ win seasons for the Raiders under HC Scott Nagy and my projections for this year have them right line for that win total again this year. But this is a big number to lay for a team that was not a double-digit favorite all that often last year. Take the points. 

Western Carolina finished sixth in the SoCon last season w/ a sub-.500 record and was 13-19 SU overall. It was a poor finish to the regular season as the lost seven of their final 10 games, then were one and done in the Conference Tournament. For this year, the Catamounts have a new head coach (Mark Prosser), though he will need a find a way to replace lost production from the top two scorers from LY both graduating. While it may seem like Western Carolina has no chance here, don't be surprised to see them be a better shooting team than they were last year (were 327th in FG%).

It may seem odd that I'm calling for improved offense against a Wright State team that held its opponents under 60 PPG last year. But with this promising to be a pretty low-scoring game overall, taking the points is definitely the way to go. Wright State failed to score more than 65 points in almost a third of its games last season. Look for the underdog to find a way to stay under the big number. 8* Western Carolina

10* Cal Santa Barbara (10:00 ET): Wyoming traditionally has one of the top homecourt edges in the sport (high elevation!), but I don't think that alone wil be able to carry them against what is a gutty underdog. Truthfully, I'm not convinced that the better team isn't the one getting points here. Under the guidance of a 1st year HC (Joe Pasternack), UCSB completed the second best single-season turnaround in D-I history last year, going from 6 to 23 wins. They were denied a postseason berth as they lost in the Big West Tourney semis, but did go 11-4 ATS on the road last season. Wyoming was a terrible defensive team LY and also lost four of its five top scorers. Take the points. 

UCSB also must deal with some key departures as they have only one starter back from last year's turnaround team. Max Heidigger (19.1 PPG) is the one key holdover. But unlike Wyoming, the Gauchos appear to be well-positioned to replace that departed talent. They had the best recruiting class in the Big West plus added a few key transfers, Devearl Ramsey from Nevada, JaQuori McLaughin from Oregon State and Ar'mond Davis from Alabama. Ramsey is a speedy point guard while the other two will definitely help the Gauchos' shooting from long-range.

Wyoming is off B2B 20+ win seasons. They also won 10 conference (Mt West) games LY, just the 2nd time in 16 years they'd done that. But as mentioned above, four of the top five scorers are gone and that's not good news for a team that didn't really shoot the ball all that well anyway. Even worse is the team's defensive outlook. Last year, the Cowboys ranked a horrendous 317th in scoring, allowing 78.7 PPG. That makes them a dicey proposition to lay points with, and they had a losing ATS record at home last year anyway. 10* Cal Santa Barbara

8* South Alabama (9:00 ET): Auburn will start the season ranked #11 as most consider them the third-best team in the SEC, behind Tennessee and, of course, Kentucky. The Tigers were a 4-seed in LY's NCAA Tournament, but bowed out in embarrassing fashion in the Round of 32, losing by 31 to Clemson. They were not a healthy team come Tourney time and a couple of key offseason departures have me a little "lukewarm" on them to start the year, even though they're still expected to score plenty of points here in 2018-19. But this is a big number to lay in the first game and I'll take the points.

South Alabama has a new HC, Richie Riley, who comes over from Nicholls State. Riley, a former assistant at both UAB and Clemson, led Nicholls State to the regular season championship in the Southland. After five straight losing seasons, the Jaguars should be significantly improved this season and be a player in the Sun Belt. They return the majority of LY's roster, including their top five scorers. Riley inherits a team that was in the top 15 in the country in forcing turnovers, doing so on 22.4% of opponents' possessions. The Jaguars will have to improve their shooting, both from three-point rang and the free throw line. They should do that. 

You may have forgotten that Auburn opened last season by winning 16 of its first 17 games. At one point, people were buying Bruce Pearl's team as a possible #1 seed (I did not). The key to their eventual downfall was a season-ending injury to Anfernee McLemore. He is back, but Mustapha Heron (transferred to St. John's) is not, nor is LY's leading rebounder Desean Murray (transferred to Western Kentucky). Also, Danjel Purify is ineligible for the season's first nine games due to the scandal that has engulfed the sport. Austin Wiley, like Purify, was ineligible LY due to the scandal. He had actually been cleared, but is now doubtful for the season opener due to a foot injury. I believe we're not going to see the Tigers score the way they did last season, at least initially. 8* South Alabama

10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): On paper, Charlotte probably could not have asked for an easier set of back to back games than what they're getting here. After easily dispatching of Cleveland Sunday night (won by 32!), they'll get Atlanta tonight, also at home. The Hornets are 5-5 SU on the season, but actually own the East's third best point differential at +7.6 points per game. They are an impressive 4th in offensive efficiency. However, I don't see things going quite as easy tonight as they did Saturday vs. Cleveland when seven Hornets finished in double figures, including five off the bench. I'll take the big number in this one. 

Coming into the year, most had Atlanta finishing at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. This is definitely a rebuilding project, but the team has won three games, including its last one. Saturday night, they upset Miami (at home) by a score of 123-118 (as 5.5 pt dogs). Rookie Trae Young led the way w/ 24 points and a career-best 15 assists. The team made 13 three-pointers and led by as many as 15 in the second half. This will be among the biggest numbers that the Hawks have gotten so far and it's one worth grabbing. 

Now the Hornets have largely controlled this Southeast Division rivalry, winning and covering seven of the past eight meetings, including all four here in Charlotte. But they are usually not this large of a favorite. The Hornets are 2 for 2 as double digit chalk so far this year, easily beating both Chicago and Cleveland. But I see a team prone to a letdown in this spot, especially w/ a more marquee battle (at Philadelphia Friday night) looming on the horizon. Note that Charlotte is 2-5 ATS after scoring 125+ points in their previous game. 10* Atlanta 

10* Indiana (7:05 ET): The Pacers were my *10* Game of the Week on Saturday and despite being in the second game of a back to back, they rallied to beat Boston on Victor Oladipo's jumper w/ just a few seconds remaining. I thought they were a "steal" as a home dog in that matchup and here that's the case as well against a Rockets team that simply is not playing very well in the early going. Right now, Indiana is one of only six teams in the league with a win percentage of .700 or higher and outscoring its opponents by five or more points per game. I think they should be favored by more here and I'll take them for a second straight time at home at what looks to be an excellent value. 

Houston, who won 65 regular season games a year ago, was a massive disappointment in opening the season 1-5. They've won B2B road games, but those came against Brooklyn and Chicago and neither were easy despite both victories coming by eight points. They actually trailed at the half in both games. With Chris Paul and James Harden each missing multiple games, it would be easy to pin the Rockets' problems on that. But I believe the team's issues run a bit deeper. They've already suffered four double digit losses, all at home no less. They're 3-1 SU on the road, but won't be able to overwhelm Indiana in a quarter like they did to both Brooklyn and Chicago. With Eric Gordon still out, Rockets' HC Mike D'Antoni has had to use five different starting lineups in eight games. 

Indiana's three-game win streak has been by a total of nine points, so they're by no means blowing teams out recently. But they were earlier on in the season w/ their first four wins all coming by double digits. Compare that to a Houston team that has yet to win any game by double digits. The Rockets' scoring is way down this year (106.2 PPG) due them shooting just 42.3% from the floor. At the same time, the defense has gotten way worse, though numbers have slightly improved because of the last two games. But right now, Indiana is simply the better team here and I'll take them at home. 10* Indiana

8* Under Kings/Bucks (3:30 ET): I almost had to do a "double take" when I looked at the matchup, but these teams have gone Over in the L11 meetings against one another. But that trend comes w/ a pretty important caveat as none of those eleven O/U lines have been higher than 213.5 points. A lot has changed - for both teams - in the last year, but we were looking at a pair of sub-200 pt totals for the two 2017-18 meetings. Here, we've got one of the highest totals set so far this season and I think it provides an excellent opportunity to play the Under. Scoring in Sacramento games has been pretty crazy this season, but it's due to subside some moving forward. 

Kings' games are averaging an insane 236.4 PPG so far, but it would seem that number can only come DOWN. Perhaps more shocking is the fact the team has won and covered five straight games. Win streaks such as this are quite uncommon in California's capital city. Note that I don't expect the Kings to come anywhere close to the 146 points they scored Thursday in Atlanta. They shot 54.1% for the game, a percentage that will be difficult to match. Something akin to the 46-pt third quarter they delivered against the Hawks is almost a lock not to be repeated as Sacramento had been averaging "just" 110.8 PPG during the first four wins of the current streak. They had that through three quarters Thursday. It's an offensive performance that's simply unlikely to be repeated. 

Meanwhile, the Bucks are due for some defensive improvement after suffering their 1st loss of the year Thursday in Boston. They allowed the Celtics to make 24 three-pointers, a stunning departure from the kind of defense we'd seen Mike Budenholzer's team play during its 7-0 SU start. They still rank second in the league in defensive 3-point percentage (31.5%) as well as overall defensive efficiency. Here at home, Milwaukee is limiting teams to 40% shooting overall, including just 27% from three-point range. This being an afternoon game, don't be surprised by a somewhat "sleepy" start from both teams offensively (even though we just set the clocks back!). 8* Under Kings/Bucks

10* Indiana (7:05 ET): After trailing by as many as 18 in the first half, the Pacers were able to come back and beat the lowly Bulls Friday night w/ Darren Collison's jumper in the final seconds being the difference in a 107-105 final. It was the team's second straight "close" win as they beat the Knicks by only six on Wednesday. But now, for just the fourth time all year, Indiana gets to play a home game. They won their first two, beating both Brooklyn and Memphis pretty handily, but lost to Portland earlier in the week. This won't be an easy three-game homestand for the Pacers as they face the Celtics, Rockets and 76ers. But I think they'll up to the challenge tonight from Boston.

While Indiana is the team playing the second night of a back to back, I'm wondering if it's not the Celtics in the worse situation here. They're being asked to lay points on the road after a big home win Thursday night over previously unbeaten Milwaukee. I see no way the Celtics will match their prolific shooting from that game where they made a record 24 three-pointers. That three-point shooting helped nullify that the Bucks had a ridiculous 62-22 edge in points in the paint. The Celtics did have a double-digit lead going into the 4Q, but things quickly got tight and they had to hold on a for 117-113 victory. While Boston has won four in a row, three of those wins have been by six points or less. 

I'm certain that the Indiana players and coaching staff will treat this as a "measuring stick" game as to determine where the team is at in the Eastern Conference pecking order. Last year, they played four tight games w/ the Celtics and the road team surprisingly won all four. Three of the games were decided by a total of nine points, so going w/ the underdog here seems logical. The way that Boston was outscored in the paint by Milwaukee makes me thinks that the Pacers' Domantas Sabonis is going to have a big game here. Sabonis is shooting 70.7% from the field so far. Jaylen Brown is currently listed as questionable for the Celtics. Take the points. 10* Indiana

10* Over Knicks/Mavs (8:35 ET): The O/U line itself has been huge in determining whether or not Mavericks games have Over or Under this year. Obviously, that's the case for any team and basically why an O/U line exists! But looking at the O/U lines for Mavs' games, a pretty clear pattern emerges. The Under is 3-0 when the O/U line is 229 pts or higher. But the Over is 4-0 at 220.5 or lower. Here, we find them coming off an Under and a failed comeback attempt against the Lakers Wednesday night. They lost 114-113, still a pretty high scoring game by an objective standard, but not high enough to top the huge 234-pt total that was set. So far, only one Mavs game has seen less than 221 total pts scored. I'll go w/ the Over here. 

The Knicks have seen five of their last seven games stay Under the total, but more concerning to them is the fact they've dropped six of those seven games. Their most recent loss came Wednesday night, 107-101 to Indiana, a game where they blew a 4th quarter lead. Lucky for them that Dallas is on a five-game losing streak, so somebody is going to have to pick up a win here. My guess is that we see a high-scoring game, which is often the case when two bad teams meet up. Neither team is playing much defense in the early going, especially Dallas, who is giving up 116.6 PPG on nearly 50% shooting. They've allowed five different opponents to shoot 51% or better. The Knicks just let the Pacers shoot 54.2% from the field and they are giving up 110.2 PPG on the year. 

Now neither team has shot the ball particularly well itself, but Dallas has averaged 119.7 points in three home games. The Knicks have yet to win on the road (0-3) but still average a respectable 106 PPG, a number they should top tonight. One bad offensive performance (87 pts at Miami) is still heavily skewing their overall numbers. Other than that one game, both teams have scored at least 100 in every game. The fewest number of points Dallas has given up in any game this year is 109. 10* Over Knicks/Mavs

8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Improbably, the Kings have won four straight - all as underdogs. I was willing to bet that streak would end at three, but was wrong as they downed Orlando on Tuesday, 107-99 as 4.5-pt road dogs. Over the past three seasons, this is just the third time that Sacramento has won more than three straight games. Tonight, they look to continue the streak, but have a couple things clearly working against them. One is that this will be their third road game in four nights. Two, for the first time all season, they find themselves favored. That's problematic considering they have lost 11 straight times in Atlanta and are just 4-16 ATS in their last 20 visits here. Last season, the Kings were road faves all of four times and didn't cover once (0-3-1 ATS). 

Atlanta, like Sacramento, is a young team that no one expected much from in 2018-19. Ten players on this Hawks' roster have two or less years of NBA experience. Take away Vince Carter and the average age of the roster drops pretty significantly. As is the case w/ many young teams, the Hawks are currently going through some growing pains. They've lost three in a row, including a bad 136-114 decision at previously winless Cleveland Tuesday night. The Hawks are just 2-5 SU and ATS overall, however they've had to play the majority of their games on the road. Rookie Trae Young has been as good as advertised, leading the team in both points (19.1 per game) and assists (6.6 per game).

Teams that are seldom favored often make for good fades when in the chalk role. Just ask Atlanta. The lone time the Hawks were favored to win a game this year, I played against them. That was Saturday vs. Chicago and sure enough, they lost outright 97-85. I think the scheduling catches up w/ the Kings here as does the inevitability that they've been overachieving of late. 8* Atlanta

10* Under Nuggets/Cavs (7:05 ET): This is a terrible spot for Denver, who had to go to overtime last night to beat Chicago. They're 6-1 SU and looking every bit the Western Conference contender I thought they'd be, but last night showed that they can struggle against the league's weaker teams. So - by no means - will tonight's game in Cleveland be easy. However, what I'm looking at here is the total. Even though last night's game went to overtime, the Under still cashed. The Under is now 5-2 in all Nuggets' games this season, so while Cleveland is pretty terrible defensively, I think this number is simply too high Thursday night. Take the Under.

The Cavs scored a season-high 136 points Tuesday in their first win of the season. They shot 50% from the field, their first time doing so all year. But it was against the lowly Hawks. Defense continues to be an issue for the Cavs, who are still trying to figure things out under an interim coach (Larry Drew) as Ty Lue was fired on Sunday. Fortunately for the Cavs, Denver is going to come in tired tonight and likely not be at their most prolific offensively. Last night, the Nuggets didn't even score 100 pts in regulation and that was when rested and facing a Bulls team that was off an all-time bad defensive performance vs. Golden State. 

Quietly, Denver is 4th in the league in points allowed at just 103.9 per game. So that's why we can't write their chances off completely tonight, despite being in this terrible spot. That defense should not be challenged much by a Cleveland team that is w/o Kevin Love and thus lacks a true "go-to" scorer. Yes, seven Cavaliers reached double figures in the win over Atlanta, but I would not look for that to happen again as the Nuggets are highly unlikely to commit 22 turnovers like the Hawks did. The Cavs are 26th in the league in assists per game and like I said earlier; they hadn't shot 50% or better in any game until Tuesday. 10* Under Nuggets/Cavs

8* Under Hawks/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): The last time these teams played was October 21st. It was also the first sign Cleveland was potentially headed for a second post-LeBron disaster. They lost the game 133-111 (to the Hawks!) and remain winless on the season as they're 0-6 SU entering tonight's rematch. Over the weekend, they fired HC Ty Lue, a sign that management may not have a clue as to how bad this team truly is. Now they are looking at being w/o Kevin Love for the next month. The Cavs' defense has been beyond horrendous so far, not only in conceding 133 pts to the Hawks in the last meeting, but also allowing Indiana to shoot 64% from the field in a 119-107 loss on Saturday. Despite that, I'm looking for this game to stay Under the total.

Atlanta may have torched Cleveland for 133 nine days ago, but they've scored just 177 pts total the L2 games. One of those saw me fade them, that being Saturday night's outright loss to Chicago. There, they shot a woeful 32.1% from the field. They weren't much better last night in a 113-92 loss at Philadelphia, shooting only 37.2%. That game was basically decided in the 3Q when the Sixers outscored them 31-13. The Hawks also didn't help themselves by going just 8 of 37 from three-point range and missing seven of 21 free throw attempts. If there has been one shining light of late for this team, it's been the defense as they've held three straight opponents below 44.0% from the field. All three games have gone Under. The Under is 25-11 for Atlanta when coming off 3+ consecutive Unders. 

Now the Over has cashed the last NINE times these teams have met. Interestingly enough, the O/U line here is lower than what it was for the first matchup. While the Over did cash there, Atlanta is 11-5 Under the L16x its played a game w/ a OU line north of 220. That includes a 3-1 mark this season, the 1st game vs. the Cavs being the exception. I obviously don't see the Hawks being as prolific offensively tonight as they were in that first visit when they made a franchise record 22 three-pointers. At the same time, without Love (and really any viable scoring options), Cleveland is really going to struggle to put the ball in the basket the next several games. 8* Under Hawks/Cavaliers 

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): Can Sacramento really pull a fourth consecutive outright upset, tonight? I'm willing to bet that the answer is "no." Last night, the Kings went to Miami and upset the Heat, 123-113 as nine-point dogs. Like I alluded to, it was their third straight outright win as a dog. The previous two were at home and saw them beat Memphis 97-92 (as a 3-pt dog) and Washington 116-112 (as a 5-pt dog). Tonight, they are a pretty short dog in Orlando. I get that the Magic have dropped four of five and aren't exactly inspiring as home favorites (were 2-10-1 ATS in that role LY). But they are well rested (two days off) while the Kings are playing the second game of a back to back. Sacramento is also 1-13 SU/2-12 ATS when coming off a double-digit win the L3 seasons.

Orlando should play a lot better here than what we saw from them on Saturday in Milwaukee. There, they lost 113-91 while shooting only 32.7% from the field. But that was on the road and against an unbeaten team. The Magic have actually taken on a pretty challenging schedule in the early going, facing the Sixers, Celtics, Blazers and Bucks in the last four games and three of those (not the Blazers) were on the road. Tonight will be the 1st time all season that they are favored and they have previously pulled upsets over both the Heat and Celtics. I see them playing their "best game" of the season tonight.

While you have to hand it to Sacramento for winning three straight, a lot of history is against them tonight. For starters, they are just 1-3 ATS the L3 seasons when on a win streak of three or more games. They have only two win streaks of more than three games during that time. Playing w/o rest has been unkind to this team as well as they are just 12-24 SU in the second game of a back to back. They did win one earlier this year, vs. Memphis, but that was also at home. This is the second of back to back road games. It just seems like a logical spot for them to fall. 10* Orlando 

10* Indiana (7:05 ET): This is a pretty interesting Monday night matchup in NBA. Both teams fancy themselves as legit contenders in their respective conference, more so than the public probably does. Both are off to decent starts. Portland is 3-2 SU w/ one of its losses coming by a single point in overtime. All five of their games have gone Over the total. Indiana is 4-2 SU and just won B2B games on the road, both by double digits. They're a short favorite here at home tonight and I'll lay the number considering the Blazers are playing a third road game in five nights. The Pacers also have double revenge from last season when they lost both meetings.

Indiana beating Cleveland rather convincingly might not seem all too impressive considering the Cavs' winless record. But note it was still a road game for the Pacers, who were outrebounded and w/o sixth man Tyreke Evans (who is averaging 12.5 PPG). Still, led by Victor Oladipo's 24 pts, six Pacers finished the game in double figures (including all five starters) and the team shot a blistering 64.9% overall from the floor! That probably speaks to how bad Cleveland is defensively, but I still think it's impressive the Pacers could win a game by double digits on the road despite there being some obvious areas for improvement (like FT shooting). Evans will be back in the lineup tonight. Indiana is also 2-0 at home so far, having won both games by 20+ points. 

Portland is not that great defensively (giving up 117.2 PPG), so it could be another big night for Indiana offensively. While they rallied to take the lead in the fourth quarter Saturday night, the Blazers actually trailed by as many as 19 down in Miami. This is a team that has given up 108 or more points in regulation in every game this season. They've allowed 114 or more in all but one game. Look for an Indiana team that's actually playing some defense (102.8 PPG allowed) to exploit this. Both teams are top six so far in offensive efficiency, but the key is that the Pacers are also top five on the defensive end. They're at home and have covered all three times they've been favored so far this year. 10* Indiana 

8* Utah (7:05 ET): After an impressive 132-111 win last night in New Orleans, the Jazz are a perfect 3-0 on the road. It's too bad then that they're 0-2 SU at home or we'd be talking about them living up to the preseason hype. Many, myself among them, feel this team is destined to finish #2 in the West (behind the Warriors). Last night was definitely a step in the right direction as they hung 132 on an unbeaten Pelicans squad. Tonight's game should be pretty easy as well. Lay the points. 

Dallas is the exact opposite of the Jazz as they're 2-0 at home, but 0-3 on the road. They're off B2B losses in Atlanta and Toronto, though they were able to at least cover in the latter. But that came as 11-pt underdogs. Save for the Raptors, it's not exactly been a challenging slate of opponents for the Mavs. They have also faced the Suns, T'wolves, Bulls and Hawks, four bad teams. The biggest problems has been poor shooting as they are at just 43.9% overall and that would be even lower if not for the 140-pt game (shot 50%) against Minnesota. 

What makes this an ideal matchup for Utah is they have held three straight opponents below 43% shooting. They projected as the best defensive team in the league before the year started. They were #2 in defensive efficiency last season. Remember that Dallas was one of only two teams that did NOT average 100 PPG LY. The Mavs are also letting their opponents shoot 48% from three-point range, the worst mark in the league. Utah is off its best offensive game of the year last night and that should carry over. 8* Utah

8* Chicago (7:35 ET): Personally, I don't think Atlanta should be favored by this many points against anybody. Even though they've won B2B games, I still have the Hawks as the lowest rated team in my own personal power ratings. Chicago is right ahead of them, so the spread here should be nothing more than the token three points for homecourt advantage. I realize the Bulls are in the second night of a back to back, and without multiple players, but this is a good value and I have them at least covering the spread. 

The Hawks two upsets have come at the expense of Cleveland and Dallas, two teams that aren't exactly world-beaters. Cleveland is still winless (only team in Eastern Conference w/o a win), so beating them isn't all that impressive and the Dallas win saw them down 26 points at one juncture. That was here at home and had they not shockingly come back to win, I think we'd be viewing them in a much different light coming into this game. As far as them being favored here, that happened only 12 times all of last season. Never were they asked to lay this many points and there were only two times they were favored by more than three points. I have to see more from them before we start calling them "improved." 

The Bulls are just 1-4 overall and 0-3 on the road. But two of their losses have been by six points or less. Last night was an ugly showing in Charlotte as they gave up a season-high 135 points. That caused HC Fred Hoiberg to quip "I know we are throwing a lot of makeshift lines out there, but it is not an excuse to not go out there and play hard." While w/o Kris Dunn, Lauri Markkanen, Denzel Valentine and Bobby Portis, the Bulls still have Zach LaVine, who is averaging 32.5 points per game. Tonight is also a homecoming for top draft pick Wendell Carter, Jr, who I expect to play well. Take the points. 8* Chicago

10* Houston (8:05 ET): Even w/o James Harden, I'm rolling w/ the Rockets here as they are the clearly superior team compared to the Clippers. Now you might not think that given their 1-3 SU start to the season w/ one of the losses coming out in LA. But that first meeting w/ the Clippers was the second half of a back to back as the Rockets had just beaten the Lakers in a spirited contest the previous night. Even worse, a fight at the end of that game w/ the Lakers left PG Chris Paul suspended for two games. So the Rockets are not strangers to being down a superstar when facing these Clippers. The difference last time was the Clippers bench scoring 56 points. Even so, the Rockets still only lost by three on the road. Things will be different this time around.

Paul was also suspended for Houston's last game, a 100-89 home loss to Utah. It's definitely been a challenging slate of games for the Rockets so far w/ Paul's suspension only compounding matters. But he'll be back in the lineup tonight, just in time to offset Harden's absence. Note that it was a tight game in the 4th quarter vs. Utah when Harden left w/ an apparent hamstring issue. The Jazz would go on to score the game's next 10 points and take control for good. I don't think much of Carmelo Anthony anymore, but he's here and had a season-high 22 points vs. Utah. With Harden out, expect him to be a bigger factor in the Rockets' offense. Certainly, having Paul and Anthony is enough to offset the loss of Harden. Note that Houston had only ONE losing streak of at least three games LY and it came around the X-Mas holiday. 

The Rockets shot only 40.2% from the field against the Jazz, who are one of the league's better defensive teams. Expect that shooting percentage to be way up tonight against the Clippers, who will be playing on the road for just the second time. Like Houston, LA got to know first hand what New Orleans is "all about" this season as they lost down in the Big Easy, 116-109, Tuesday night. The depth is there for HC Doc Rivers, but he wishes he had the "high end" talent Houston has. I look for the Rockets to be highly motivated in this early season revenge spot and I love the value we are getting due to the overreaction to the Harden injury. 10* Houston

10* Under Blazers/Magic (7:05 ET): Last night may have been the "tipping point" I spoke of in my NBA analysis for yesterday. I had an Under (Pacers/Spurs) and was sure to note how the incredible amount of scoring we'd seen in the early part of the NBA season was eventually due to subside. The result of my Under play might vary for some, but the bottom line is that 8 of the 11 games stayed Under. I'm not saying that to abandon the Over strategy entirely moving forward, but blindly betting Overs is probably already a thing of the past. Tonight, I've found another game I like to stay Under the total. 

Portland is one of those teams that has seen every game go Over thus far. Even after last night's run of Unders, there are still three others (Lakers, Milwaukee, Washington) that have yet to experience an Under. No team has been able to make it to 5 straight Overs to open the year yet. I don't think the Blazers will either as their scoring average of 124.3 PPG is bound to subside and their defensive numbers (117.3 PPG allowed) are bound to improve. Believe it or not, but they've actually held their last two opponents to a field goal percentage below 42%. They only shot 39.8% themselves Monday vs. Washington, which speaks to the number of possessions in that game. Also, when looking at that final score (125-124), note the game went into overtime. Tonight also marks the first time Portland has had to play on the road. Last year, their scoring average did dip some on the road, which is really not a surprise. 

Orlando is a team that hasn't been any good since Dwight Howard left town in 2012. With LeBron James taking his talents to the Western Conference for the first time, the Magic are hoping they can break though this season in a pretty weak Eastern Conference. So far, they are 2-2 SU and hold a shocking 93-90 win in Boston as 11-pt underdogs. That's the kind of final score I'd love to see here tonight, though it may not be realistic. But, Orlando has topped 105 pts in only one of its four games so far, which I'd say is pretty significant. Both meetings w/ the Blazers LY stayed Under w/ neither side scoring 100 points either time. 10* Under Blazers/Magic

8* Sacramento (10:05 ET): Because they find themselves playing in the second night of a back to back, the Kings are better than expected value tonight as they return home to host the Grizzlies. The Kings did lose last night, which was to be expected as they were in Denver. The final score was 126-112 and thus they just missed covering as 12-pt dogs. Now they were down 20+ heading into the fourth quarter, which is pretty shocking considering they ended up shooting 52.3% for the game, including 13 of 31 from three-point range. But I expect them to bounce back at home tonight as a) they're back home, b) the Grizzlies don't deserve to be road favorites and c) a back to back isn't that big of a deal this early in this season. Take the points. 

Memphis had a rough season last year as they lost 60 games. Now they were as banged up as any team in the league and figure to improve this year. They've already started 2-1, including a huge upset of Utah Monday night as 11-pt underdogs. They allowed just 84 points in a shocking defensive performance that saw them hold the Jazz to just 35.4 percent shooting. Still though, the Grizzlies haven't shot the ball particularly well themselves so far (40.2 FG%). They did cover as a seven-point favorite against Memphis last week, but that was at home. As a road favorite, the team was 0-4 SU and ATS last season and it's a role I'm not ready to trust them in just yet. 

Sacramento came into last night's game second in the league in scoring at 125.7 PPG and was the first team to top 100 against Denver so far. So that's at least one positive takeaway from last night. Free throw shooting was definitely not positive as they missed 11 of 20 attempts. That number should definitely go up tonight. The Kings are a dead even 17-17 ATS in the second night of a back to back the L2 seasons, so they're no worse in this situation ATS than they are normally. In fact, there's no difference at all as the team's overall ATS record since the start of 2016-17 is 81-81! No starter played more than 24 minutes last night. The Kings have shot better than 50% from the floor in every game this season and have enough offensive firepower to potentially pull the outright upset. 8* Sacramento

10* Under Pacers/Spurs (8:35 ET): At some point, we will reach a "tipping point" of sorts w/ the scoring explosion that is currently ongoing in the NBA. Perhaps it was last night when the Clippers-Pelicans game (where the total was bet as high as 238.5) stayed comfortably Under w/ a final score of 116-109. That was bad news for me as I chose the Over. While I'll certainly be looking to go Over in many more future games this season, tonight I've found a game where it's likely that that Under will cash. Ironically, it features a team that was a part of my only previous Under bet this season, Indiana. I had the Under in their season opener vs. Memphis, a game where they allowed only 83 points. Tonight they play the Spurs and I expect a (relatively) low-scoring affair. 

San Antonio came into this season with more question marks than any other season in the past 20 years. Many do NOT even consider this a likely playoff team in the Western Conference as the core of the team was gutted in the offseason. They still have Greg Popovich coaching though and have started 2-1. That includes a wild 143-142 win over the Lakers Monday night that went to overtime. The Spurs were actually down six in the final minute of OT before rallying and then getting a gift when LeBron James missed two free throws. Obviously, I'm not looking for anywhere near that kind of offensive performance - from either side - here tonight. Note the Spurs shot just 42.5% from the floor in their first two games. The Under is 10-4 for the Spurs following a 130+ pt effort the previous game. 

Indiana scored only 91 pts in its last game, which was a loss at Minnesota. That was after a 132-point effort against Brooklyn on Saturday. But while the Pacers are averaging 121.5 points in their two home games, they are averaging just 96 in the two road games. The respective shooting percentages are drastically different as well. Both coaches were critical of their team's defense in the last game, so I expect that to be the point of emphasis for tonight. Both meetings last year between these teams were very low-scoring w/ just 191 and 180 total points scored. 10* Under Pacers/Spurs

8* Over Clippers/Pelicans (8:05 ET): I'll look for the NBA's scoring explosion to continue Tuesday night w/ one of the teams most responsible for it. New Orleans has scored 131 and 149 points in two blowout wins. As a result, we have the highest posted total yet for any NBA game this season. They are hosting the Clippers, whose own scoring has increased w/ each passing game. They scored a season-high 115 in an upset win over the Rockets Sunday night. That moved them to 2-1 SU, though all three games were played at home. I'm not about to jump in front of this Pelicans' scoring train, so Over is the play.

The Pelicans wasted no time turning heads as they rocked Houston 131-112 in the season opener. That was in Houston, by the way. New Orleans scored 30 or more points in every quarter and was led by Anthony Davis' 32 points and 16 rebounds. Nikola Mirotic added 30 and the team shot 53% overall. It was even more of an offensive onslaught against Sacramento where they scored 149 pts, the highest scoring effort by any team this season. The Pelicans shot almost 59% in that win, including 16 of 31 from three-point range. All five starters were in double figures, led by Mirotic's 36. But lost in that impressive offensive performance was them allowing 129 points. The Clippers will get theirs too here. 

While this O/U line is high, it's not too much higher than previous Pelicans' totals. The numbers closed north of 230 for both previous games. Now for the Clippers, it is high. Their first two games, against Denver and Oklahoma City, saw them hold the opponent below 38 percent shooting. That certainly is unlikely to happen tonight. In those same two games, the Clippers didn't shoot that well either. As discussed earlier, the Pelicans defense has been such that the Clippers will score plenty in this game. Don't be afraid to bet the Over in this one as it should be a wildly exciting contest. 8* Over Clippers/Pelicans

10* Over Knicks/Bucks (8:05 ET): Half of the teams in the NBA have gone Over in all of their games so far. But the Knicks have been an exception to the "rule' w/ two of their three games staying Under. It's not that they have been terribly low-scoring affairs, though they have averaged only 103 PPG in back to back losses to Brooklyn and Boston. On the bright side, they are 3-0 ATS and getting double digits tonight in Milwaukee. But to stay perfect against the spread, they'll need to improve upon their shooting (42.4%) to keep pace w/ a Bucks team that has come firing out of the gates to average 115.5 points in two games. I had the Over in their last game, a 118-101 win over Indiana, and am going to play this one the same way. The Bucks are among the half of the league not have played a single Under so far.

Milwaukee is using the three-pointer to its full advantage under HC Mike Budenholzer and it's paying off. They went 17 of 46 from three-point range against the Pacers, certainly high volume, but it paid off. Last year, the team ranked in the bottom third from behind the arc, so this is most definitely a welcome change. I don't think it's going to subside anytime soon either as Giannis Antetokounmpo was 0 for 7 from behind the arc vs. Indiana and that's unlikely to happen again. Note the Bucks have been fast starters in their two games, scoring more than 60 pts in the first half each time. Friday vs. the Pacers, they scored 30 or more in each of the first three quarters. Speaking of fast starters, the Over is 44-23 in the first half of the season for the Bucks the L2+ seasons. 

The Knicks did score 126 pts in their season opener, a win over the Hawks, so they are capable of putting points on the board. And Milwaukee definitely is susceptible on defense. The Bucks allowed Charlotte to come back from a 20-point deficit in their first game (still won by 1 pt). The Knicks are a little short-handed right now w/o their best player (Kristaps Porzingis) and top draft pick (Kevin Knox), but still look for this team to be better offensively in 2018-19 as they have not only rid themselves of Carmelo Anthony before last season but are now free from the foolishness of Phil Jackson trying to make them play a triangle offense. 10* Over Knicks/Bucks

8* Over Hornets/Raptors (7:35 ET): Half the teams in the NBA have gone Over in all of their games thus far. You can count Toronto among them as the Raptors are 3-0 Over, in addition to also being 3-0 straight up. They've been remarkably consistent in the scoring department, finishing w/ 116, 113 and 117 points the L3 games. And they've done so despite not even really shooting the lights out (46.7 FG%). I was impressed w/ how there was no hangover the night after beating Boston as the Raptors went to Washington and scored a season-high 117 points despite playing w/o Kwahi Leonard (rest). I see no reason why the Raptors won't continue contributing to the league-wide scoring explosion tonight as they're back at home to take on the Hornets. Toronto was 3rd in the league in offensive efficiency last season while averaging 112.5 PPG and that w/o Leonard.

Charlotte has gone Over in two of its three games thus far. Ironically, both Overs finished w/ identical 113-112 final scores, however the Hornets lost one and won one. Their only game to go Under was against Memphis, one of the worst offensive teams in the league (held them to 88 points). The Hornets are off a rare close win (they have the worst record in games decided by 3 pts or less the L2 seasons), beating Miami by one on Saturday night. They are also now 3-0 ATS. Like Toronto, they too are averaging 115 PPG, having scored 112 or more in all three games. And they've done that despite relatively modest shooting (45.1 FG%). The key has been the three-point shot as they are 41.5% from behind the arc so far. They aren't going to be able to sustain that as their 49 three-pointers made through three games is a new NBA record. 

But even as the percentage drops, I expect the sheer number of three-point attempts to keep Charlotte's amount of scoring strong. They attempted 42 three-pointers against the Heat, whom they led by as many as 26 on Saturday night. The Hornets could also stand to improve their FT shooting, which currently stands at only 70%. Meanwhile, this Toronto team is deep as they have seven players in double figures w/o Leonard against Washington. The Over is 8-4 in Raptors' home games the L3 seasons when the total is 220 points or higher. The Over cashed in three of the four Charlotte-Toronto matchups last season and I don't see how this one doesn't follow suit. 8* Over Hornets/Raptors

10* Denver (8:05 ET): Golden State finds itself in the second leg of what insiders know is the toughest road trip in the sport, the Utah-Denver double shot. The Warriors were lucky to beat the Jazz Friday night, 124-123, getting a last second tip-in from Jonas Jerebko. The two-time defending champs are now 0-2 ATS on the year as they also failed to cover against the Westbrook-less Thunder on Opening Night. It's pretty shocking that the Dubs needed a last second tip-in to squeak by the Jazz given that they shot 56.3% for the game. They aren't likely to shoot the ball that well again here and as I stated earlier in the week, this Denver team is for real. Take the points.

The Nuggets are also 2-0 straight up, but unlike Golden St they've covered both games. I took them in the first game as they rallied late to put away the Clippers, 107-98. Last night, they predictably blew out the Suns 119-91 w/ Nikola Jokic's triple double (35-12-11) leading the way. Jokic also didn't miss a single shot, going 11 for 11 from the field. Not all the news was good coming out of the game, however, as Will Barton was lost to a hip injury and could miss extended time. He won't play tonight. But despite that injury and the fact the Nuggets are in the second night of a back to back, I still think the situation favors them. They traditionally own one of the league's best home court advantages (31-10 SU LY) due to the high altitude other teams aren't used to playing at.

Remember - it was a blowout win last night, so the B2B game scenario isn't that bad here for the Nuggets. They led 30-16 after one quarter. Losing Barton could be significant, but thankfully this is one of the league's deeper teams. The Nuggets should also be "up" for playing the Warriors at home. Typically, they have matched up well against the Dubs, even beating them twice outright last year. They are one of only three teams (Spurs & Jazz are the others) to hold at least five regular season victories against Golden State in the Steve Kerr era. A number of the Warriors' top players have struggled in this venue previously. Kevin Durant is a woeful 34% from three-point range in his career here while Klay Thompson has never scored more than 21 pts in a game at the Pepsi Center. I'll take the points, expecting an outright win. 10* Denver

8* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): LeBron lost his Lakers' debut Thursday night, falling at Portland, 128-119. I wouldn't be overly concerned with that result, however, considering James also lost his pro debut in Cleveland, his 1st game in Miami and his 1st game back in Cleveland. In the case of the last two stops, his teams immediately bounce back w/ a win. As for James individually, he was his usual efficient self against the Blazers, totaling 26 points, 12 rebounds and six assists. What has the potential for more concern was Houston's woeful performance in their first game. At home, they were blown out 131-112 by the Pelicans and it looks as if they are prepared to take a step back this season. One of these teams is going to be 0-2 SU after tonight and I'll take the points. 

Last year was one of the best seasons in recent Rockets' history as they finished w/ the best record in the league (won 65 games) and took the eventual champion Warriors to a 7th game in the Western Conference Finals. But like most, I have them taking a bit of a step back in 2018-19. For one, I hate the Carmelo Anthony acquisition. No team w/ Melo on the roster has ever been a legit championship contender and this is now his 4th franchise. Last year's team was actually competent defensively, but w/ the losses of Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute in the offseason, that might not be the case again this year. We saw clear signs of defensive regression against the Pelicans, who shot 53.1% from the floor en route to a blowout victory. 

Bad news for Houston is that the Lakers were just 7 of 30 from three-point range against Portland and missed their first 15 attempts. That might actually sound like "good news," but I don't see any way the Lakers aren't better from distance tonight and that's not even factoring in the Rockets' poor defense. While I do think the expectations for the Lakers are a little high this season, this team does have plenty of talent beyond just James. It's a more talented group than he had LY in Cleveland. Meanwhile, I'm concerned that Rockets' HC Mike D'Antoni had to make the excuse "I thought they were tired" in reference to his team's performance vs. New Orleans. It was the 1st game of the season! 8* LA Lakers 

10* Oklahoma City (10:35 ET): In this PERFECT 4-0 start to the NBA season, both of these teams have treated me well, albeit in different ways. Oklahoma City was my 1st winner of the season as they stayed inside the number against Golden State on Opening Night despite not having Russell Westbrook. Then I played against the Clippers the following night as they hosted Denver and lost 107-98 here at home. I'm sticking with those preferences tonight and taking the Thunder. They have had the Clippers number in recent years, going 6-1 ATS the previous seven meetings, including a season sweep in 2017-18. Plus, as I said in the earlier analysis, I simply don't think much of this Clippers team whose ceiling is probably no higher than 11th in the Western Conference. 

There have been conflicting reports about the status of Westbrook for tonight's game. Initially, he was thought to be rule out, but he's officially listed as questionable. Clippers' HC Doc Rivers claims to have an "inside source" and believes that Westbrook will play. Consider him playing to be an added bonus, one that we don't need. Despite 27 points from Paul George, the Thunder shot only 36.3% from the field Tuesday night, including 10 of 37 from three-point range. They also missed 13 of 37 free throws and were outrebounded, a rarity for them, by the Warriors. I expect all shooting numbers to go up here and for the rebounding to improve as well tonight. 

The Clippers were soundly outrebounded by the Nuggets on Wednesday and one of the reasons I believe it'll be a similar story here vs. OKC is that Thunder are traditionally one of the top rebounding teams in the league. Like the Thunder, the Clippers didn't shoot particularly well in their season opener, but the difference is that they don't really have the horses to project any kind of improvement for tonight. The starting five is barely recognizable from past years and Patrick Beverely was 0 for 8 from the floor against the Nuggets. The team's best scored, Lou Williams, comes off the bench. The Thunder are the better team here, with or without Westbrook, and I'll gladly take the points. 10* Oklahoma City

8* Over Pacers/Bucks (8:35 ET): Both of these teams won their respective season openers, but the margins of victory were much different. Indiana rolled Memphis at home, winning 111-83. I had the Under in that game, which was a double-digit winner despite the Pacers shooting a blistering 56.6% from the field. Those concerned w/ me now looking to go Over w/ them should also consider that they held Memphis, a bad offensive team, to just 29.8% shooting. So while Indiana isn't likely to shoot the ball well as they did two nights ago, they're defensive numbers will almost certainly regress at the same time. So this one boils down to the opponent, Milwaukee, who beat Charlotte 113-112 in their season opener. Take the Over.

While the Bucks won by just one point Wednesday night, things should have been more comfortable considering they led Charlotte by as many as 20 at one point. But 21 turnovers did them no favors and allowed the Hornets to get back in the game. After scoring 93 points through three quarters, Milwaukee scored only 20 in the final 12 minutes. Led by the all-World Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks should do plenty of scoring this year. I have them projected to finish in the top four in the East, behind the obvious three of Boston, Toronto and Philadelphia. Last year's squad averaged 106.5 PPG despite getting little else beyond "The Greek Freak." They were 7th overall in offensive efficiency. 

Tonight is the opening of the Bucks' new arena, the Fiserv Forum, so it should be a strong atmosphere for a team playing under a new HC (Mike Budenholzer) as well. But the Bucks will certainly be tested more here over the course of 48 minutes than they were by Charlotte. It doesn't bode particularly well that they let the Hornets shoot 42 percent from behind the three-point arc. Also, Indiana has a strong bench, one that scored 58 points against Memphis. I look at this matchup and see a lot of points being scored. 8* Over Pacers/Bucks

10* Over Bulls/76ers (8:05 ET): Chicago is one of the last teams to open its season, doing so on Thursday against a Philly team that lost to Boston on Opening Night. The Sixers had yday off to recover from that disappointing defeat and should be ready to go here in a game they'll be heavily favored to win. I certainly expect the Sixers to score more than the 87 points they finished w/ against the Celtics, who are one of the top defensive teams in this league. The Bulls used to be one of the league's premier defensive teams, but not anymore as they finished 28th in efficiency a season ago. I'm on the Over in this one. 

The Sixers shot just 39.1% from the field Tuesday night in Boston. You're not going to win many games on the road shooting that poorly, especially against one of the league's top teams. The overall shooting was bad enough, but the Sixers specifically struggled from three-point range where they missed 21 of 26 attempts. They also didn't help themselves from the FT line, going 14 of 24. I expect across the board improvement tonight from a team that averaged 109.8 points per game last season. In three games vs. the Bulls, they were remarkably consistent, scoring 115, 115 and 116 points. I expect a number in that neighborhood tonight. 

The Bulls won just 27 games last year, their fewest in any season in over a decade. They should improve some in 2018-19, but don't kid yourself; this is NOT a playoff-caliber team. They were not good on either end of the floor last season, ranking bottom three in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Defensively, they figure to be bad again. They allowed 112 PPG on the road last season. Offensively though is where the improvement might come as Zach LaVine (acquired in the Jimmy Butler trade) is healthy and consider Chicago native Jabari Parker to be the X-factor. 10* Over Bulls/76ers

10* Denver (10:35 ET): I don't think the Clippers are going to be very good this year while Denver projects to be a top 4-5 team in the West. Therefore, even in LA, this looks like a good value play on the Nuggets. The preseason, as meaningless as it is to some, showed me that the Nuggets are going to score plenty of points this year. In particular, a much-hyped game vs. the Lakers saw them score 124. After missing the playoffs five straight years (came very close L2 years), this team should win 50 games this year. 

The Clippers are a team trending in the opposite direction. Last year was their first time NOT making the playoffs since 2010-11. They traded away Blake Griffin. They were not healthy, which hopefully won't be the case this year, but players like Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari are injury-prone. Their most reliable scorer, Lou Williams, is best served as a 6th man. Doc Rivers' starting five is now Tobias Harris, Gallinari, Beverley, Marcian Gortat and Avery Bradley. Hardly inspiring. At some point this year, HC Doc Rivers is going to focus on developing younger talent.

The Nuggets are loaded w/ scoring options: Nikola Jokic, Paul Milsap, Will Barton, Jamal Murray and Gary Harris may not be "household names," but trust me when I say that this team is going to put plenty of points on the board. This actually could be the deepest team in the entire league. Milsap being healthy will be key. Missing out on the playoffs because of a loss in the regular season finale still sticks w/ this team. They'll come out strong this year. 10* Denver 

8* Under Grizzlies/Pacers (7:05 ET): Memphis was not a good team last year. They lost 60 games and were outscored by 6.2 PPG. Now they weren't very healthy and that played a role in their significant decline. With upgrades at the wing and at the defensive end, I expect the Grizz to win more games this year. I don't think they'll make the playoffs in a loaded Western Conference, mind you, but an increase of 10 or so wins seems reasonable. Their problem lies at the offensive end.

Indiana won 48 games LY and was the #5 seed in the Eastern Conference. Most project them to be in the top five in the Eastern Conference again this year, but I say don't be surprised if they win fewer games. That's because they were an extraordinarily fortunate 11-2 SU in games decided by three points or less last season (3-0 in overtime). That won't be repeated and the Pacers are largely bringing the same roster back. I believe regression is inevitable, even in a weak Eastern Conference. 

For this season opener, I expect a relatively low-scoring game. Memphis was one of only two teams in the entire league NOT to average 100 PPG last year (Sacramento was the other). The Grizzlies do have Mike Conley back at PG, which is the most important "addition" from last year, but the new pieces - such as Summer League star Jaren Jackson Jr - will take time to gel. Both times these teams played last season, the game went Over. But those two games saw excellent shooting that won't be repeated here. The total is also higher than either of LY's matchups. 8* Under Grizzlies/Pacers 

10* Oklahoma City (10:35 ET): There was a time when a spread like this would have been eye-popping, but any time the Warriors are at home, they're going to be laying a lot of points. The two-time defending NBA Champs (also won 3 of last 4 titles) again come into the year as the prohibitive favorite to repeat. There's such an embarrassment of riches with this time that it almost feels like the regular season is a complete waste of their time. Of course, that mentality can also lead to a number of "play against" situations. Like tonight as they host Kevin Durant's former team, the Thunder. 

OKC has thankfully rid itself of Carmelo Anthony, which is addition by subtraction from where I sit. Melo is now Houston's problem and this should help the Thunder in the Western Conference pecking order. Anthony was never a fit here as he needed the ball too much on a team that already had Russell Westbrook. With Westbrook and Paul George, this remains no worse than a top five team in the West in my estimation. It's a lot of points to be taking for the 1st game of the season. Remember that the Thunder beat the Dubs twice last year and lost another time by only four. 

Now the big story here is that Westbrook may not play as he's still recovering from offseason knee surgery. But even if the Thunder have to go w/o him, I believe they can hang against Golden State. If he does play, obviously that's just a bonus. Golden State has a bit of a new look for this season w/ Damian Jones starting at center. Obviously, there's no question marks w/ the other four starters, but newly acquired DeMarcus Cousins won't be suiting up until December at the earliest. The Warriors are weak on the interior and OKC has long been one of the better rebounding teams. I look for the Thunder to rebound from LY's poor 36-50-2 ATS mark. 10* Oklahoma City 

10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): While a series sweep entails one team winning four in a row, a loss tonight in Cleveland would all but end the Cavaliers' season. For the third year in a row (this is the fourth straight Finals meeting), they have opened the NBA Finals by losing the first two games in Golden State. Barring a series comeback many just aren't seeing right now, the Cavs will likely rue the Game 1 loss for some time. So many things (reversed call, missed FT, JR Smith blunder) went against them in the overtime loss, that it's a wonder they even were able to make it to Game 2. While they fought valiently Sunday night, the underdog Cavs just couldn't seem to get over the hump in a wire to wire defeat, 122-103, at the hands of the Warriors. But, now at home, I think we'll see them perform a lot better. I'm taking the points in Game 3. 

If it feels like we've seen this before, that's because we have. Just last round, in the Eastern Conference Finals, Cleveland found itself down 0-2 to Boston w/ the series heading back home. They would go onto win the next two games here in C-Town and eventually the series. Now, this Warriors team is a lot more formidable than the Celtics. But, same as that Boston series, I have to believe the Cavs' players not named "LeBron James" will start to set up now that they're back on their home floor. In the first two games, James' teammates are an abysmal 8 of 32 from three-point range off his passes, including 5 of 16 when uncontested. JR Smith, Jeff Green, Kyle Korver and Jordan Clarkson are a combined 14-54 from field in the series, including 5-25 on 3's. Again, look for these shooting numbers to jump way up now that we're at the Quicken Loans Arena. 

Golden State shot 57.3 percent from the field in Game 2, which makes them basically impossible to beat. In fact, they were near 54% for the first two games as a whole. But, just like Cleveland's shooting numbers must go up, the Warriors' must go down. At four games, Golden State is currently on its longest win streak of the postseason. They are 9-21 ATS this season off 3+ consecutive SU wins. In the Eastern Conference Finals, the Cavs never scored more than 94 pts in any of the four games in Boston. But in the three home games, they scored: 116, 111 and 109 pts. In the last five home games, they've averaged 113.8 PPG. In both '15 and '16, they beat GSW here at home in Game 3. Last year, they should have done the same, but blew a huge lead. With their season basically on the line, I'm on the home dog. 10* Cleveland

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): This is an interesting game to handicap. The crux of the arguement hinges on whether or not the underdog Cavaliers truly have a formula to stick w/ the heavily favored Warriors, or will they be "emotionally spent" coming off a brutal Game 1 overtime loss? For me, I believe it's the former. I understand the need for the marketplace to "respect" the Dubs, but to me, the oddsmakers have them overpriced in this series. As maligned as this year's "supporting cast" might be, any team that can claim LeBron James on its roster is capable of winning on any given night. I almost never mention the officiating in my analysis, but there was certainly a myriad of calls that went against the Cavs Thursday night that cost them the chance at pulling the outright upset. After cashing the Over in Game 1, I'll take the points in Game 2. 

James had 51 points in Game 1 (on 19 of 32 shooting) to go along w/ eight rebounds and eight assists. It's a real shame how it was "wasted." His teammates went a combined 25 of 67 from the field (just 37.3%) including 7 of 30 from three-point range. Obviously, they need to be better. There was the JR Smith gaffe that will live in infamy, which followed a George Hill missed free throw that could have won the game at the end of regulation. Kevin Love played pretty well, but was also just 1 of 8 from behind the arc. I expect the supporting cast to be "better" here, which it will need to be as it would be beyond any superlative were James to score 50+ again. One key area where the Cavs did dominate Game 1 though was on the glass. They outrebounded Golden State 64-42, including 19-4 on the offensive end. Tristan Thompson will NOT be suspended here and I see no reason why the Cavs can't dominate the "smallish" Warriors on the glass again. 

This is the fourth time this postseason that Golden State has won three straight games. They have yet to win four straight. They lost Game 4 of the San Antonio series, then Game 3 of the New Orleans series and then Game 2 of the series as well. Now all of those losses did take place on the road. They have lost once at home this postseason (Game 4 vs. Houston), but overall have won 18 of their last 19 playoff games at Oracle Arena. I want to point out though that each of the last three games have seen them have to rally from a deficit of at least nine points. That doesn't seem like a very sustainable blueprint to me. Andre Iguodala is still out w/ a knee injury and listed as doubtful. I'm not sure the team shoots 51.1% from the floor again like it did in Game 1 either. For the season, when off three or more consecutive SU wins, the Warriors are just 8-21 ATS. Cleveland is 5-1 SU this postseason when down in the series and 17-10 ATS as an underdog this season. 10* Cleveland 

10* Over Cavaliers/Warriors (9:05 ET): For the fourth consecutive year, we have the same two teams meeting in the NBA Finals. Over the year four year span of 1984-1987, the Celtics and Lakers met three times (not '86 as the Celtics met the Rockets instead), but that's the only comparable thing (in my lifetime) to what we're seeing here. Golden State has beaten Cleveland twice over the previous three Finals, winning in six games in '15 and just five last year. The Cavs won their lone NBA Title in 2016, stunning the Warriors by rallying back from a 3-1 series deficit to win in seven games. Were they to win it all this year, it would be considered an even bigger upset than two years ago, both by the odds and logic. Cleveland no longer has Kyrie Irving while GSW now has Kevin Durant. Still, it is pretty remarkable that a team w/ the best player in the world on its roster (that being LeBron James) would be this prohibitive an underdog. 

Unders reigned supreme in the Conference Finals, going 11-3 overall. Breaking it down, that was 6-1 in the Warriors' series vs. the Rockets and 5-2 for the Cavs vs. Celtics. The low-scoring games in the Western Conference Finals were particularly surprising as those were the top two offensive teams in the league matched up. Oddsmakers continued to drop the O/U line throughout the series, all the way down to 208 for Game 7 (after the O/U line was 227.5 for Gm 4!), but it still didn't matter. Incredibly, the Dubs held Houston to an average of only 91.2 points on 39.2% shooting over the last five games. The Warriors did exceed their own YTD scoring average of 112.7 PPG three times over the course of the series. 

It was a similar story in the Eastern Conference Finals w/ Game 7 closing w/ the lowest O/U line of the series and it also being - by far - the lowest scoring game. Oddsmakers had dropped the number by a full 10 pts from a series high of 207 (Gm 3), but to no avail. I see the NBA Finals, at least Game 1, changing this trend. While both regular season matchups between these teams stayed Under, one had a total of 234.0 and the other was an ugly shooting X-Mas Day game (GSW won both). Though they've improved somewhat dramatically in the postseason, Cleveland was a terrible defensive team in the regular season, ranking 28th in efficiency. Both teams were in the top five in offensive efficiency, however, and I simply cannot see two teams w/ this much firepower continuing to stay Under the number so consistently. The final four games of LY's Finals all went Over and the totals were much higher. 10* Over Cavaliers/Warriors

8* Houston (9:05 ET): Will we really see a road team win both Game 7's in the Conference Finals? The oddsmakers and public certainly think so as Golden State is a pretty significant favorite here, which is rare for a road team in a Game 7. Of course, that has a lot to do w/ the status of Chris Paul for the Rockets. For the record, as I write this, the Rockets are saying CP3 is "questionable" and will be a "game-time decision." Whether or not he plays, this play stands. Though Game 6 ended up being a disaster for Houston, note that that they did put together a 39-point first quarter w/o Paul. On the road. I'll take the points w/ the (rare) home dog in a Game 7.

The Rockets have now been held under 100 pts in four straight games. Just how unprecedented is that? In the regular season, there was never an instance of them failing to score at least 100 pts in consecutive games! They've averaged just 91 PPG these L4 contests, which is just stunning. But, again, as we saw in that 1Q Saturday night, this team is more than capable of still scoring even w/o Paul. Consider that despite shooting 8 for 12 from three-point range in that 1Q of Game 6, the Rockets finished the game just 31 of 77 from the field overall (40.3%) and would go onto miss 20 of their final 27 attempts from behind the arc. James Harden in particular has really struggled from distance, going a combined 4 of 23 the L2 games. But, now the Rockets are back home and I just don't see any way we don't see across the board improvement offensively here. Four straight games of 40% shooting or worse is pretty unprecedented for any team in this league, especially this one. 

Home teams are now 104-27 SU all-time in Game 7's. That's just under an .800 win percentage. Over the last five years, home teams are 14-4 SU and two of the four wins by the road team came from the LeBron-led Cavs. On the road, the Warriors will not shoot as well here as they did at home in the second half of Game 6. They outscored the Rockets 31-9 in the fourth quarter, which is ridiculous and not going to happen again. Houston has not lost B2B games in the playoffs (going 4-0 ATS off a loss as well). Paul or not, I just see a ton of value w/ a team that was favored over the Warriors the last time here at home. 8* Houston 

10* Over Warriors/Rockets (9:05ET): So it's all come down to this. Golden State clobbered the Chris Paul-less Rockets in Game 6, 115-86, as 12-pt favorites. But, despite that final score, it actually wasn't as easy as it seemed. The Warriors actually trailed by as many as 17 in the first quarter before a second-half barrage was far too much for Houston to overcome. After scoring 39 pts in the 1Q, the Rockets were held to only 47 the rest of the way. That included a disastrous nine-point 4Q. As a result, for a fourth straight game, the Under hit. Obviously, with a NBA Finals berth on the line Monday night, all other storylines seem secondary. But to me, how far the oddsmakers have had to reduce the O/U line is quite notable. I'm on the Over in Game 7 as the total is now almost 20 pts lower than what it was for Game 4! 

The Rockets have now been held under 100 pts in four straight games. Just how unprecedented is that? In the regular season, there was never an instance of them failing to score at least 100 pts in consecutive games! They've averaged just 91 PPG these L4 contests, which is just stunning. But as we saw in that 1Q Saturday night, this team is more than capable of still scoring, Paul or not. Consider that despite shooting 8 for 12 from three-point range in that 1Q of Game 6, the Rockets finished the game just 31 of 77 from the field overall (40.3%) and would go onto miss 20 of their final 27 attempts from behind the arc. James Harden in particular has really struggled from distance, going a combined 4 of 23 the L2 games. But, now the Rockets are back home and I just don't see any way we don't see across the board improvement offensively here. Four straight games of 40% shooting or worse is pretty unprecedented for any team in this league, especially this one.

Golden State did not get off to a good start in Game 6, but turned in a 33-pt 2Q, which was their 1st 30+ pt quarter since the third of Game 4. They went into halftime at just 4 of 18 from three-point range, but went 12 of 20 in the second half. Over the final three quarters, the Dubs scored 93 points, which is what we're used to seeing from them. They won going away despite a subpar (by his standard) effort from Kevin Durant, who was just 6 of 17 from the field. Also, neither team shot well from the FT line. On 36 total attempts, there were 14 misses. 10* Over Warriors/Rockets

analysis soon

10* Over Rockets/Warriors (9:05 ET): It sure is shocking to see two straight Rockets-Warriors games where the winner wasn't even required to score 100 points. In fact, Houston has averaged just 92.7 points over the L3 games! Not only is this the first time all season that they've been held below 100 pts in three consecutive games, it's the first time they've been held below 100 in B2B games. Now, the big story for Game 6 is going to be the absence of Chris Paul. This has made the Rockets big underdogs in a spot Golden State already had to win to stay alive. But even w/o Paul, look for Houston's offense to increase tonight. I'll say the same for a Warriors team that has also been held below 100 pts in B2B games, a rarity in its own right. I'm on the Over.

Just as rare as these two teams getting held below the century mark in consecutive games is the fact the Dubs have lost B2B games. When at (or close to) full strength, that simply does not happen. Now, I know Andre Iguodala has been out the last two games and his absence was a big reason why I took the Rockets in both of those games (went 2-0 ATS!). He's listed as questionable for tonight, but as HC Steve Kerr put it, "he's gotten incrementally better each day." Golden State is 6-3 Over this season coming off three or more consecutive Unders (Under is 7-1 their L8 games). When off a SU loss, they average 117.3 PPG. When off B2B losses (has happened only five times all season, including one three-game losing streak), they have scored no fewer than 107 in every game in that situation and are averaging 114.8 PPG.  Bottom line is they'll "get theirs" tonight. 

With Paul out, expect plenty of Harden in this game for the Rockets. Though I ultimately expect this series to go to a seventh game, a Harden-led offense is still plenty to "write home about" obviously. Consider that the team went 15-9 SU w/o Paul in the regular season. Now none of those games were against the Warriors, but the point still stands that I can't see this offense being held under 100 pts for a fourth straight time. I should also mention just how much this O/U line has dropped from the first four games. It's a near 15-point drop from Game 4, which is more than "pretty substantial" and will be one of the lowest totals for either team all season. There's plenty of value to be had here. 10* Over Rockets/Warriors

10* Over Warriors/Rockets (9:05 ET): While the Eastern Conference Finals is being controlled by homecourt advantage, over in the West, the zig-zag theory has held firm as the loser of the previous game has stormed back to win each of the last three games. It was Houston's turn in Game 4 as they pulled the upset in Oakland, 95-92 as nine-point underdogs. I'm proud to say that I was on the dog there as the Rockets essentially "saved" their season following an embarrassing 45-point loss in Game 3 just two nights earlier. The zig-zag theory indicates tonight would be the Warriors' time to shine, however, the series has now shifted back to Houston. Looking at tonight's total, it's significantly lower than any previous O/U line in the series and certainly lower than what it was for any of the regular season matchups. I'm on the Over in Game 5.

We're certainly not accustomed to seeing final scores in the 90's from either the Warriors or Rockets, so the fact that Tuesday's game ended up 95-92 is definitely quite shocking. These are, after all, the two top offensive teams in the league (both in efficiency and points per game). The fact that the Rockets averaged just 90 PPG in the two games at Golden State and were still able to come away w/ a split should actually have them feeling quite well about themselves. Because they average 113.9 points per game at home and should be considered a virtual lock to improve upon the shooting of the last two games, each of which saw them shoot just 39 percent from the floor. In particular, we should see them improve from three-point range where they were just 23 of 72 the L2 games. In the two home games in this series, Houston scored 106 and 127 pts.

Golden State is obviously no slouch on offense either. They shot better than 50% each of the first three games of the series before dipping down to 39% themselves in Game 4. This is a team that averages 113.0 PPG on the year w/ almost no dip on the road. Coming off an outright loss as a favorite, they are 13-8 Over this season. Their 14 assists in Gm 4 marked a series low and - shockingly - their assist percentage in the series is below that of the Rockets. That should start to change. Only Kevin Durant and Steph Curry scored more than 11 pts Tuesday and that's not likely to be the case again tonight. Both teams having two sub-20 pt quarters in Game 4 is something that certainly isn't likely to repeat itself again here. I'm taking advantage of this "low" number. 10* Over Warriors/Rockets

8* Houston (9:05 ET): While the Eastern Conference Finals is being controlled by homecourt advantage, over in the West, the zig-zag theory has held firm as the loser of the previous game has stormed back to win each of the last three games. It was Houston's turn in Game 4 as they pulled the upset in Oakland, 95-92 as nine-point underdogs. I'm proud to say that I was on the dog there as the Rockets essentially "saved" their season following an embarrassing 45-point loss in Game 3 just two nights earlier. The zig-zag theory indicates tonight would be the Warriors' time to shine, however, the series has now shifted back to Houston. I've actually been on the Rockets in every game in the series, feeling that they're undervalued, and I'm not wavering from that viewpoint here in a spot where the "world" figures to be on Golden State.

We're certainly not accustomed to seeing final scores in the 90's from either the Warriors or Rockets, so the fact that Tuesday's game ended up 95-92 is definitely quite shocking. These are, after all, the two top offensive teams in the league (both in efficiency and points per game). The fact that the Rockets averaged just 90 PPG in the two games at Golden State and were still able to come away w/ a split should actually have them feeling quite well about themselves. Because they average 113.9 points per game at home and should be considered a virtual lock to improve upon the shooting of the last two games, each of which saw them shoot just 39 percent from the floor. In particular, we should see them improve from three-point range where they were just 23 of 72 the L2 games. In the two home games in this series, Houston scored 106 and 127 pts.

Now Golden State is going to improve upon its own 39% shooting from Game 4 as well. They shot better than 50% from the floor in each of the first three games. But I'm not sure they get to that level here. Even if they do, they still have to win, which is not easy to do for the road team in Houston. The Rockets are 40-9 SU at home this year, outscoring opponents by 9.2 PPG. They are also 52-14 SU this year when the trio of James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capella take the floor together. Consider that Golden State jumped out to a 12-0 lead in Game 4, led by 12 again in the fourth quarter and still lost. And that was at home! Those advantages won't be present here in Houston. While both may end up playing, Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala (the latter being questionable) are not 100% and that has an impact on a shortened Warriors' rotation that really can't play its bigs due to the Rockets' "small-ball" lineups. 8* Houston

10* Cleveland (8:35 ET): Well, after seemingly being written off after the first two games, the Cavs have stormed back to tie the Eastern Conference Finals at two games apiece. Now we head back to Boston for Game 5 where the Celtics have not lost the entire postseason. They're a perfect 9-0, both SU and ATS, here at TD North Bank Garden w/ the vast majority of the wins coming by double digits. Both Games 1 and 2 of this series were decided by DD as the Celtics won by 25 and 13 pts. But there's probably something to the fact that Cleveland has held a double digit lead in each of the last three games, largely holding it for the majority of the previous two. I'm willing to put my money w/ LeBron James as it would appear the lack of their own "go-to" option is finally starting to catch up w/ Boston. 

After shooting 51% from the floor in Game 1, the Celtics have not shot the ball well the rest of the series. They're at just over 41% for the last three games and that includes a 25 of 81 mark from three-point range. Defensively, Cleveland has largely been a lot better in the playoffs than they were in the regular season (when they ranked a woeful 28th in efficiency). For the entire postseason, the Cavs are allowing just 101.7 PPG, which is a lower average than the defensive-minded Celtics! Now Boston's scoring typically goes up here at home. It would be easy to say that they'll regain lost form here in Game 5. But Cleveland is actually 9-5 SU here in TD North Bank Arena in this second era of LeBron. It was easy to forget after the first two games, but the Celtics don't have their best player (Kyrie Irving) and I'm not sure who they can count on - consistently - to counteract James. 

LeBron is the difference maker here as he turned in yet another 40+ pt effort in Game 4 (44 to be exact), albeit one w/ "only" five rebounds and three assists. He is averaging 33.7 PPG in the playoffs. Though they led wire to wire in Game 4, the Cavs had a lot of miscues (which can easily be corrected) that allowed that game to stay closer than it should have been. Namely turnovers, seven of them coming from LeBron. He'll need some help from the supporting cast obviously, but I sense a big game coming from James tonight as for the first time in the series, we'll see the road team get a win. 10* Cleveland

10* Houston (9:05 ET): For the second time in three games, the Rockets were humiliated by the Warriors as they lost Game 3 by an embarrassing 45-point margin. Once they got down, it was a total laydown "effort" which saw them get outscored 38-18 in the fourth quarter. Steph Curry finally came alive for the Warriors, scoring 35 pts on 13 of 23 shooting. That was more points than he had in Games 1 and 2 combined (34) when he was 2 for 13 from three-point range. At one point, before catching fire late in Game 3, he was 3 for 19 from three-point range for the series. As for Houston, they shot just 39.5% overall for the game. This shapes up like a classic "zig zag" spot in the NBA playoffs where you take the team that got blown out the last game. That's precisely what I'll do as this is a big number for a Rockets team that was favored in both home games. 

You don't see the Rockets lose that big or score that little very often. Sunday marked just the third time all season that they were held below 85 points. They came back and won the next game after both such occasions. They are also 7-3 SU off a double digit loss this season. They have yet to drop B2B games this postseason, coming back from their lone loss in the Minnesota series w/ a 19-pt win (on the road) and then their lone loss in the Utah series w/ a 21-pt win (also on the road). Of course, the also rebounded from losing Game 1 of this series w/ a 22-point win in Game 2 (at home). So that's an average margin of victory of 21 PPG when off a loss in the playoffs. Not saying that will happen here, but it's illustrative of how the team doesn't play poorly in B2B games. 

Conversely, the Warriors are just 3-6 ATS when leading in the series during these playoffs. Everyone has been quick to proclaim "the return of Curry," but he really didn't get going until Game 3 was out of reach. Andre Iguodala has been listed as "doubtful" for tonight w/ a knee injury. Getting back to the Houston supporting cast, we saw Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker and Trevor Ariza combine for 68 points (on 23 of 33 shooting!) in Game 2. That same trio had just 23 total pts (8 of 24 shooting) in Game 3. They should, collectively, have a bounce back effort tonight. Remember that Houston is 51-14 SU this year when another trio - James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capella - all play. 10* Houston

10* Over Celtics/Cavaliers (8:35 ET): Cleveland got a much needed win in Game 3, finally providing LeBron James w/ some support. In addition to James' 27 points and 12 assists, all other Cavs' starters scored in double figures and the team finished w/ 116 points and made 17 three-pointers. That's a big change from the first two games in Boston where they scored just 179 pts total and shot very poorly (particularly from three-point range). While the home team is now 3-0 in this series, so too is the Under as the losing side has yet to score more than 94 points in any of the three games. Boston was very bad shooting the ball on Saturday, making only 39.2% from the field, including 6 of 22 on three-pointers. My guess is they'll be a lot better here offensively (remember, Cleveland ranked 28th in defensive efficiency during the regular season) and the Cavs will be pretty close to their Game 3 performance as well. Take the Over. 

Each team has been pretty dismal from three-point range in two of the three games in this series. For Cleveland, it was obviously Games 1 and 2 as they went a combined 14 of 57 (24.5%). Therefore, Game 3 was a much-needed and welcome refresher. James made all three attempts from distance, but the real key was the rest of the team going 14 of 31, led by Kyle Korver and J.R. Smith going a combined 7 of 8. Remember - role players typically perform better at home. Obviously, I'm not anticipating much of a dropoff for Game 4. For the year, the Cavs are averaging 110.5 PPG at home on 48.2% shooting. This is also a team that averages 12 three-pointers made per game for the year. 

Boston does not need to win another road game to advance to the NBA Finals (they have homecourt advantage in this series), but they need to at least start playing better on the road. Saturday's loss dropped them to 1-5 SU on the road in these playoffs and they have not scored more than 102 pts in any of those games. Four times, they've been held to 92 or fewer. But Cleveland is giving up 108.7 PPG for the year and isn't a good defensive team. It's hard to imagine the Celtics shooting as poorly as they did in Game 3 or for that matter, the last two games. They are just 69 of 166 the L2 games, 41.5 FG%, including 16 of 53 from three-point range. James defended like a monster in Game 3, but given his offensive burden, I'm not sure a repeat of that can be reasonably expected. 10* Over Celtics/Cavaliers

10* Houston (8:05 ET): The Rockets tied up this best of seven Western Conference Finals w/ a convincing 127-105 win in Game 2. It feels as if that game took place "eons ago," (Wednesday to be exact), so allow me to remind you that Houston's back was really "up against the wall" in that one as the chances of them overcoming a 2-0 series deficit to the Warriors, with both losses coming at home, was next to nil. Now the scene shifts to Oakland for Game 3 and it's no surprise that the Dubs are prohibitive favorites to reassert control in the series. However, I see them being favored by too many here as I'll remind you that Houston was the better team - whether you're talking record, net efficiency or point differential - in the regular season. Take the points here.

It's not as if the Rockets' postseason performance should result in any sort of "downgrade" here either. Like Golden State, they needed just five games to advance past their first two opponents. Tonight marks the first time in these playoffs that they will be an underdog. After basically failing to exceed their season average in points per game six straight times, Houston finally "woke up" offensively in Game 2, scoring 127 points on 51.1% shooting and they made 16 three-pointers. It's not like the team's scoring average dips that much on the road where they are averaging over 110 PPG for the season. They also have the best road record in the league mind you at 34-11 SU. They've won the L3 road games, one in Minnesota and two in Utah, by an average of almost 18 PPG (all by 13 or more).

Now Golden State is obviously a "step up" from those two aforementioned teams (actually, SEVERAL steps up), but with the points this is more than "doable" for the Rockets and, in fact, I believe they can take this game straight up. Yes, Kevin Durant has been as good as any player not named "LeBron James" in these playoffs. But what about Steph Curry? He is averaging only 17.0 PPG and has missed 11 of 13 three-point attempts. The "knee-jerk" reaction would be to call for a breakout performance here in Game 3, but I'm not so sure of that. Plus, Houston scores so much that the Warriors' margin for error in covering this spread is pretty small. That's if they even win. Note that the Dubs are just 10-22 ATS when facing an opponent w/ a winning record the second half of the season. This one can go either way, so I'm definitely taking the points. 10* Houston

10* Under Celtics/Cavaliers (8:35 ET): It has not been a good first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals for Cleveland, who has been held to just 177 pts on 40.9% shooting by the team that finished #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. For Boston, they couldn't have asked for a better start as they still undefeated at home this postseason (9-0 SU/ATS) w/ this "rag tag" group of well-coached players exceeding all expectations. But I wouldn't bet against Cleveland in this spot. Nor would I bet against a Celtics team that is now 23-8 ATS when taking points this season. What I would bet on for Game 3 is another Under as the Cavs are back to getting next to nothing outside of LeBron while Boston should see its own scoring (from the first two games) decrease, now that they're on the road. 

Game 2 was especially frustrating for Cavs' fans as LeBron had another triple double, this one coming w/ 42 points. But the rest of the team contributed just 52 and Kevin Love had 22 of those. The rest of the team combined for an odious 30 points on 12 of 33 shooting. That's how you blow a double-digit lead (which the Cavs had in Game 2). My guess is that at least one "role player" will step up and contribute tonight. But the lack of depth remains glaring here. Cleveland's overall scoring average in the playoffs (101.2 points per game) is way down from what it was in the regular season. This is also a bad free throw shooting team, which has cost them at times. The Under is 3-0 this postseason for the Cavs when trailing in a playoff series and 4-0 this season when playing w/ three or more days rest. 

Boston didn't exactly shoot well either in Game 2, going just 43.2% overall, including 10 of 31 from three-point range (Cleveland was an identical 10 for 31 from distance). But they had 12 more FG attempts and turned it over far less. Jaylen Brown has scored 23 pts in both games in this series and he + Terry Rozier have outscored Cleveland's starting backcourt 72-12 in the two games. But, key here is that the Celtics are just 1-4 SU on the road in the playoffs w/ significant drops in almost all major statistical categories. They have yet to top 102 pts in any of those five playoff road games and are averaging just 97 PPG overall. 10* Under Celtics/Cavs

10* Houston (9:05 ET): Though they failed me in Game 1 (fell victim to a second half "surge"), I'll come back w/ the Rockets again in Game 2. This is basically "must-win" territory for the home team, as they do not dare fall behind 0-2 w/ the series set to move back to Oakland. Now, they wouldn't be eliminated per se, but let's be honest, dropping B2B home games to the Warriors would be "death." While the Dubs shot well in Game 1 (52.5% overall), the same really can't be said for the Rockets (45.9% overall). They scored just 50 pts after halftime, which was the difference. As was Kevin Durant scoring 37 points. James Harden scoring 41 for Houston wasn't even enough. But w/ their backs against the wall, I'll take a Rockets team that is 11-3 SU off a SU loss as a favorite this season.

The rationale for taking the Rockets here is essentially the same as it was for Game 1, only now amplified due to the situation. They've now lost only nine times in 48 tries at home this season w/ a point differential of nearly plus nine points per game. They, not Golden State, led the league in point differential and net efficiency rating during the year. They also won the regular season series, taking 2 of 3 games, including the only matchup here in Houston.  The Rockets are 50-5 straight up this season when the trio of James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Cappella take the court together. This postseason, Houston has turned the ball over on less than 10 percent of its total possessions. That number would be an all-time playoff record if it holds. For the first time in the Kerr-era, Golden State faces an opponent that may not only be just as good as the Warriors offensively, but - gasp - possibly better! The Rockets also shocking allow fewer PPG than the Dubs.

I anticipate the Rockets shooting better as a team here in Game 2 compared to Game 1. Not since the first two games of the 1st round series vs. Minnesota have they been held under 110 pts in consecutive contests. Furthermore, Golden State is just 8-20 ATS off three or more consecutive victories this season. That includes an 0-2 SU/ATS mark here in the postseason as they've followed up their previous three game losing streaks w/ a SU loss both times. The Rockets should get more here from the players beyond the trio of Harden, Paul and Capella as well. 10* Houston

8* Cleveland (8:35 ET): Well, it certainly didn't take the media (both national & local) to write Cleveland off in this Eastern Conference Finals. After a Game 1 debacle that saw the Cavs lose by 25 points (108-83), it's all aboard the Boston train seemingly. I had the Celtics in Game 1 mind you, but have to admit that I was very surprised at the ease at which they prevailed. They got out to a big lead early and never looked back. It obviously won't be that easy in Game 2 and I'm going w/ the "zig zag" theory for Game 2, expecting a Cavaliers' bounce back. LeBron James in particular was bad in Game 1, getting held to 15 pts on 5 of 16 shooting (missed all five 3-pt attempts). Cleveland, one of the top offensive units in the game, shot just 36% as a team and was 4 of 26 from three-point range. That won't happen again and I'm on 'em for Game 2. 

While Cleveland couldn't hit water from a boat in Game 1, Boston - its starters in particular - could not miss. The Celtics finished the game at 51.2% from the field, but that's a little misleading as the starting five combined to go 34 of 59 from the field, which is an unconscious 57.6% overall. That quintent also accounted for 10 of the team's 11 made three-pointers. Needless to say, we won't be seeing that happen again, even if Cleveland is a somewhat deficient team at the defensive end. The Celtics are still perfect at home this postseason (8-0 SU and ATS) and 10-3 ATS overall in playoff games, but Cleveland has not lost B2B games in the playoffs. They are also 15-8 ATS as dogs this season.

The Cavs have been held under 85 pts only two times previous to Game 1 this season. After both instances, they came back and won the next game. They are also 10-4 SU in that situation the L3 seasons. Boston, as good as it is defensively, had only held an opponent to 85 pts or less five times all season. Obviously, Cleveland is going to be better in Game 2 than they were in Game 1, but my call is that they'll be SIGNIFICANTLY better - to the point that we'll head back to Cleveland w/ the series knotted up at a game apiece. Don't forget James came into this series averaging 34.3 points, 9.4 rebounds, 9.0 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.0 blocks per game this postseason. 8* Cleveland

10* Houston (9:05 ET): For the 1st time since Steve Kerr became the head coach of the Golden State Warriors (which was 2014), the Warriors do NOT have homecourt advantage in a playoff series. The Rockets won 65 games in the regular season, finishing seven games clear of the Dubs, thus getting the top spot in the Western Conference this year. Yet, they are they underdogs in this series and not even being given much credit at home. I think there's tremendous value on Houston in this series opener (and possibly Game 2?) as this is a team that has lost only eight times at home all season (in 47 games), winning by an average of 9.4 points per game. They, not Golden State, led the league in point differential and net efficiency rating during the year. They also won the regular season series, taking 2 of 3 games, including the only matchup here in Houston. 

Now the Warriors are by no means having a down season. Their numbers may not be as prolific as they were each of the last two seasons, but they've still lost only three playoff games in six series since Kevin Durant became a member of the team. But here's another stat for you: the Rockets are 50-5 straight up this season when the trio of James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Cappella take the court together. This postseason, Houston has turned the ball over on less than 10 percent of its total possessions. That number would be an all-time playoff record if it holds. For the first time in the Kerr-era, Golden State faces an opponent that may not only be just as good as the Warriors offensively, but - gasp - possibly better! The Rockets also shocking allow fewer PPG than the Dubs. 

You won't find the Warriors as underdogs too often. Usually, it only happens when multiple star players are out for a stretch, like we saw earlier this season. Interestingly, they are just 1-5 ATS this year as dogs. They are also just 9-21 ATS in the second half of the season against teams w/ winning records. Neither of these teams have lost this year when playing w/ three or more days rest (both 7-0 straight up), although Houston is better ATS in that situation. Just like you don't find Golden State as underdogs too often, you won't find the Rockets as this short a favorite very often. I'm sure this is the shortest number they've had to lay at home all season when healthy. The Rockets have waited all year for this game and this series. They'll show up - big time - in Game 1. 10* Houston  

8* Boston (3:35 ET): It's the same Eastern Conference Finals as last year with the Cavs taking on the Celtics. There are two rather significant differences from last year's matchup, which saw Cleveland win - rather easily - in just five games. One is that this year Boston has the homecourt edge. Two is that Kyrie Irving won't be suiting up - for either side. The Celtics thought they had pulled off a real "coup" in acquiring Irving from the Cavs via trade this past offseason. But he's missed the entire postseason w/ an injury and won't be a factor here. That hasn't stopped Boston from advancing so far, as they needed only five games to eliminate previously red hot Philadelphia. Interestingly, both teams were pushed harder in the first round (Cleveland by Indiana and Boston by Milwaukee) w/ each series going seven games while they made quicker work of their respective second round opponents than expected.

Cleveland swept Toronto in the last round, an incredibly impressive performance considering the Raptors were the top seed and won 59 regular season games. While you can write off the Raptors as "choke artists" all you want (Cavs swept them in the 2nd round LY as well), there's no underselling the brilliance of LeBron James at this point. He's averaging 34.3 points, 9.4 rebounds, 9.0 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.0 blocks per game in the playoffs. But the big question here is what kind of help will he get? He got very little in the Indiana series before several players stepped up against Toronto. But the Celtics are a much better defensive team than the Raptors. They ranked #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. That's a far cry from the Cavaliers, who were 28th! 

Boston is a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS at home in the postseason. Incredibly, this will be the fourth time they will have been an underdog. It's pretty clear to me that this team has been wildly underrated in the wake of the Irving injury. They are 23-8 ATS as underdogs this season, including a perfect 10-0 ATS at home (9-1 SU). The Celtics finished the regular season w/ the best ATS record in the league. Contrast that w/ Cleveland, who was the WORST ATS team in the league and is still just 21-48 ATS as a favorite. Playing w/ three or more days rest, the Celtics are 4-1 SU/ATS while the Cavs are 0-3 SU/ATS. LeBron has been otherworldly, but I don't think that alone can be enough in Game 1. 8* Boston

10* Philadelphia (8:05 ET): It's well-known that no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series in NBA playoff history. The chances of it happening here remain small, but the Sixers did stay alive for another day by taking Game 4, 103-92 as seven-point chalk. It's worth noting that Philly has been favored in every game during the series, so them falling behind three games to none was quite the shock. The price came down for Game 4 and I think remains at an appropriate price for Game 5 here in Boston. Remember that the Sixers were in control in Game 2 (led by as many as 22) and Game 3 was an overtime affair that certainly could have gone either way. They were able to win Game 4 despite a poor shooting effort. Boston has gotten by short-handed so far in the playoffs, but another body has dropped (Shane Larkin) and I'll call for the 76ers to stay alive for another day and take Game 5. 

The Sixers came into this series having won 20 of 21 games and were -400 on the money line to advance. In retrospect, that was pretty clearly a case of bad pricing by the oddsmakers, but the initial read still should be respected. Especially seeing as Boston has been far from dominant since winning Game 1. Sure, Philly was not going to be able to maintain its ridiculous winning percentage. I said that coming into the series when I took the Celtics (as home dogs) in the opener. Though they have not shot well in the series, charting the games, Philadelphia has had the better shot selection. We know Boston was #1 in defensive efficiency during the regular season, but I suspect the Sixers' shots are about to start falling. 

TJ McConnell got the surprise start in Game 4 and led the way w/ 19 pts on 9 of 12 shooting. I suspect we'll see more of him here. The play of Ben Simmons has been a real "sore spot" for Sixers' fans in this series, but the good news is his shooting can only get better. Meanwhile, I just don't trust Boston to find consistent scoring w/o Kyrie Irving. Something not talked about enough w/ the Sixers is that the ranked in the top five in defensive efficiency (during the reg season), just like the Celtics. They've actually been better on the defensive end here in the playoffs. Boston has shot better than 46% in just three of their 11 playoff games so far. While I still have my doubts that the Sixers pull off the miracle (i.e. come back to win the series), I do think they'll force a Game 6 back at home. 10* Philadelphia

8* New Orleans (10:35 ET): ): It certainly would appear as if we're destined for a Rockets-Warriors Western Conference Finals. Both teams enter Tuesday up three games to one in their respective series and are at home tonight. The idea that the Pelicans could beat the Warriors three straight times seems pretty laughable to be honest, so it's only a matter of time before their season comes to a close. Anthony Davis and company are double digit dogs for Game 5 following a 118-92 loss in Game 4 Monday night. They have just two wins over Golden State in the last three seasons, Game 3 included. But they did cover the spread here in Oakland in Game 2 (lost by only five) and because everyone is going to be so quick to "write them off," I think there's value here. Take the points. 

It was a wire to wire win in Game 4 for the Dubs, led by Kevin Durant's 38 points. Steph Curry is back and he had 23 pts as well. The team has won its last 14 home playoff games (a streak that dates back to last season), so they have to be feeling confident coming into tonight. But let's not forget the call the pointspread the "great equalizer" for a reason. Golden State is only 18-26 ATS at home this year and was a bottom five team overall at the betting window during the regular season. The spread tonight is higher than it was in Games 1 and 2 and we can use that to our advantage. It's not like New Orleans is any weaker here than they were going into the first two games in Oakland. The Pelicans are 11-2 ATS overall their last 13 games.

Golden State isn't the only team in this series that can score. New Orleans averages 111.6 PPG. Only the Warriors and Rockets averaged more during the regular season. A team that can score that much seems pretty dangerous as a double digit dog, no? Any team w/ Anthony Davis on its roster has a fighting chance in my opinion. Davis had 26 pts and 12 rebounds in Game 4 and that was considered an "off-night" as he committed a game-high six turnovers and was just 8 of 22 from the field. Game 3 was a different story, however, as he had 33 pts and 18 rebounds. He's averaging nearly 14 rebounds per game in the series in addition to more than 26 points. Consider this: since X-Mas, the Pelicans have been double digit dogs just two times (one was Game 2). They covered both time. 8* New Orleans

10* Under Jazz/Rockets (8:05 ET): It certainly would appear as if we're destined for a Rockets-Warriors Western Conference Finals. Both teams enter Tuesday up three games to one in their respective series and are at home tonight. Houston was able to take both games in Utah, which is pretty impressive considering the Jazz came into this series sporting a 31-13 SU home record. Plus, both wins were by double digits (21 and 13 pts). That means of the eight head to head meetings between these two, the seven Rockets wins have all been by double digits. I'd like to think that w/ their season on the line, the Jazz will be more competitive. But I'm not willing to go on a limb and bet on oit. Instead, the total is more appealing as I'm 2 for 2 w/ the Under in this series already. Let's make it 3 for 3.

Over their last six games, Utah has failed to score 100 pts five times. The exception would be their Game 2 victory in Houston, which was a 116-108 final. You would have thought that they'd shoot better at home, but they finished Game 3 at 41.7% from the floor (despite going 11 of 29 from three-point range) and they were 38.6% from the floor in Game 4. They were 7 of 29 from three-point range this time and scored just 39 second-half points. It's not just playing in Houston that makes tonight a tall order for the Jazz offensively. They'll be short-handed as well. Ricky Rubio has not played a single game in this series after injuring his left hamstring in the close-out game vs. OKC. Apparently left hamstring injuries are contagious in the Jazz locker room as Dante Exum now has one as well and he'll miss tonight's game too. The Rubio injury has forced Donovan Mitchell into starting PG duties and that simply hasn't gone well as the rookie is shooting just 32.5% overall in the series. 

If they are to have any chance in Game 5, Utah will have to rely on its defense, which has been their calling card much of this season. They finished the regular season ranked #2 in the league (behind only Boston) in defensive efficiency. Frustrating for Jazz fans in this series is that Houston has not shot the three well, yet still is in position to advance. Following a Game 1 performance where they were 17 of 32 from behind the arc, the Rockets are just 31 of 111 (that's 28%!). Only one time in the series has Houston hit its season scoring average of 112 PPG and that was Game 3 when they scored 113. They have been relying on a lot of Chris Paul mid-range jumpers so far. The Rockets are already 5-2 Under this season after allowing 90 pts or less the previous game. 10* Under Jazz/Rockets

10* Under Celtics/76ers (6:05 ET): While Philadelphia pretty clearly was overpriced coming into this second round series (were -400 favorites on the ML!), no one anticipated them being on the brink of elimination going into Game 4. Not after they'd won 20 of 21 games previously. Now that winning percentage was unsustainable, a point I harped on when I took the Celtics in Game 1. But in the last two games, one in Boston and the other here in Philly, we've seen the Sixers blow significant leads. Here at home, they lost in overtime after blowing a five-point lead in the extra session. That came after Game 2 in Boston where they blew a 20-point lead. My "gut" tells me the Sixers stay alive here, but I have no interest in laying the points. Therefore, I'll be playing Game 4 the same way I did Game 3 - Under.

The Game 3 Under cashed in spite of OT. There were only 178 total pts in regulation scored, well below the oddsmakers posted O/U line. That's the kind of defense I was expecting from two teams that finished the regular season ranked in the top five in efficiency. Boston was of course #1 in that department and has held the young Sixers in check in this series. In the three games, Philly has shot 42.2%, 43.5% and 39.2% from the floor. I'm just not sure the Sixers are going to have an answer offensively. They've been bad from three-point range in two of the three games, including Game 3 where they were 10 of 38. Turnovers were an issue for them in the regular season and have certainly reared their ugly head again in this series. Ben Simmons has certainly looked nothing like a Rookie of the Year contender in the L2 games.

Boston's Brad Stevens is pretty clearly outcoaching Brett Brown in this series or perhaps its a case of the latter's young team failing to execute. Whatever the reason, the Sixers margin for error is now nil. I'm still confident that they can defend here though as they hold visiting teams to 42.5% shooting for the season. Boston's defense doesn't take a hit on the road, but on offense they do average about 4.2 points per game less. The first two games in Boston saw the Celtics go a combined 32 of 72 from three-point range. That was well above the team's season-long average of 37.7% from behind the arc. Sure enough, they regressed down to below 30% in Game 3.  10* Under Celtics/76ers

10* Utah (8:05 ET): Just as I did in Game 2 of this series, I'll be using the old "zig zag theory" (taking ATS loser of previous game) here in Game 4. The zig-zag theory is by no means "foolproof," but I do think its often a way to seize upon some great value, particularly when taking an underdog that was blown out in last game. Game 1 saw Utah lose 110-96 (trailed by 25 at half), only to bounce back and stun the Rockets in Game 2, 116-108 as double digit road dogs. But Game 3 was a giant step back for the Jazz as they lost at home, 113-92. In six meetings w/ the Rockets this season, the Jazz have lost by double-digits five times. While that hardly sounds inspiring, that's not in any way indicated of what this team is capable of and remember I'm already 3-0 in this series. Take the points w/ the home dog. 

The big story coming into Game 4 is the status of starting Utah PG Ricky Rubio. He hasn't played since injuring his hamstring in the close out game of the Oklahoma City series, but the team is "optimistic" that he will play here today. With Rubio out of the lineup, rookie Donovan Mitchell has been forced into point guard duty and I think it's safe to say that move has affected his game for the worse. Mitchell is shooting just 32.2% for the series. As a team, Utah has not shot well in either loss this series as they were 41.7% overall from the field in Game 3 despite making 11 of 29 three-point attempts. But with or without Rubio, I'm willing to call for a bounce back as the Jazz are 31-14 SU at home this season, shooting 46.5%. They also allow only 97.1 PPG here. Remember this was the #2 team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. As a home dog, they had been 7-3 straight up and against the spread prior to losing Game 3. 

Houston had allowed 50% shooting in four of its last five games before holding Utah in check Friday night. That includes both Games 1 and 2 in Houston. The Rockets are certainly the more talented team here, thanks to James Harden and Chris Paul, but have actually not been very good when one or both are off the floor. They're also just 21 of 73 from three-point range the L2 games. They took a lot more mid-range 2's in Game 3 and found success, but I wouldn't count on that happening again here. The Jazz are basically playing for their season tonight, so I expect a much better effort - on both ends of the floor from them. Remember what I said in my Game 2 analysis; this Jazz team hasn't lost B2B games (with the exception of the meaningless reg season finale/playoff opener) since before MLK Day. 10* Utah

10* Under Celtics/Sixers (5:05 ET): Perhaps we were all too quick to "crown" the Sixers as they lost both games in Boston (as favorites) and now face an 0-2 series deficit. Coming into the second round, they had won 20 of their previous 21 games, an unsustainable run that was due to come back "down to Earth." I, for one, am not all that surprised that they are in the predicament they are in currently. I actually played against them in Game 1, the end result being a 117-101 loss. Game 2 saw them lead by as many as 22 in the first half, but Boston quickly erased that and was able to take the lead by midway through the 3Q and only give it back briefly. For me, it was a tough loss on the Under, which didn't officially become a loser until eight seconds were left in the game.

At home, I suspect that we'll see a strong bounce back performance from Philadelphia here as their backs are definitely against the wall (no team has ever recovered from a 3-0 series deficit). However, I don't dare bet against a Boston team that is 22-7 ATS in the underdog role this season (and 13-2 ATS off a SU win as a dog). So, I'll go back to the well w/ the Under again. I figure we can always count on the Celtics defensively as they've held the Sixers to 42.2% and 43.5% shooting in the first two games. They were also the #1 ranked team in defensive efficiency during the regular season.There is basically no change in the number of points per game allowed on the road compared to at home. They do however average about 4.2 PPG fewer themselves.

Ben Simmons isn't going to be held scoreless again for Philly (was in Gm 2), but any individual gains he makes here likely come at the expense of the other scorers. The Sixers were terrible shooting the ball in Game 1, most notably from three-point range where they went 5 for 26. They improved to 13 of 33, a solid percentage, in Game 2. I expect that number to come back down for Game 3. At the same time, on the road, I expect Boston's three-point shooting to fall off tonight. In the first two games, the Celtics were 32 of 72 from behind the arc, which is almost 45 percent. That's well above the team's normal average of 37.7% for the year. Something not talked about enough is Philadelphia's defense. This was also a top five team in efficiency during the regular season and they hold opponents to just 42.4% shooting here for the year. 10* Under Celtics/Sixers 

10* Under Rockets/Jazz (10:35 ET): Utah surprised a lot of people (not me!) by winning Game 2, 116-108 as a double digit dog. After taking a big early lead (by as many as 19 points), they had to thwart a Houston comeback, one that even saw the Jazz trail briefly in the third quarter. But led by Donovan Mitchell (17 pts, 11 assists) and Joe Ingles (career-high 27 pts), the Jazz were able to battle back and in the end, win comfortably. Game 2 was a stark contrast to Game 1 when Utah fell behind big early (trailed by as many as 25 pts) and never really recovered. Now the series shifts to Utah for the next two games where the Jazz have gone 31-13 SU this season and only allow 96.7 PPG. I had the Under in Game 1 and that's how I'm playing Game 3 as well.

Game 1 did see the Under cash (barely), but Game 2 went Over pretty easily as the Jazz shot 51.8% from the field and made 15 three-pointers. One area that the Jazz struggled in both games was free throw shooting as they're a combined 28 of 47 in the series. But an area where there were no struggles, at least in Game 2, was the defensive end. They limited the Rockets to 40% shooting overall, including 10 of 37 from three-point range. That's very different from Game 1 when Houston went 17 of 32 from behind the arc. Of course, in taking the Jazz plus the points in Game 2, I anticipated that Rockets drop-off. Some of that was natural, the rest probably can be traced back to the fact Utah finished the regular season ranked #2 in defensive efficiency. Something that may surprise you is that in the first two games, Houston is only 48 of 108 on two-point FG attempts. That's just 44%. 

While Houston might very well shoot better in Game 3, Utah probably won't shoot as well here compared to the last game, even though it is at home. Ingles probably isn't scoring 27 pts again. Something else to keep in mind is that the Jazz play at one of the slowest paces in the entire league. They were tied for 25th in adjusted tempo, second slowest among all playoff teams (San Antonio). Defensively, they are a lot better at home (96.7 PPG allowed) than on the road (103.4 PPG allowed) and that probably helps explain why the Under is 26-18 in Salt Lake this season. Similarly, the Under is 25-17 in Rockets' road games this season. They score about 3.5 PPG less on the road than they do at home. They also give up fewer points. 10* Under Rockets/Jazz 

8* Under Sixers/Celtics (8:35 ET): Well, I "struck gold" in Game 1 of this series, cashing the Celtics as home underdogs. They won 117-101 (closed +4.5), holding the previously red hot Sixers to just 42.2% shooting. Head coach Brad Stevens rightly deserves all the accolades heaped upon him, especially considering all the personnel Boston was w/o in Game 1. Kyrie Irving is of course out for the entire postseason and Jaylen Brown didn't play either. Of course, this team's calling card all season long has been its defense as they ranked #1 in efficiency on that end of the floor during the regular season. The loss of Irving really doesn't hurt them at all in that regard. But it obviously hampers them offensively and while Boston has found ways to have some big scoring nights in this postseason, I don't think Game 2 will be one of them. Take the Under.

Brown had been upgraded to probable for Game 2, but has since been downgraded to doubtful on Wednesday afternoon. Keep an eye on his status. Regardless, this Under play will stand. If Brown does play, expect some rust and him not to be all that effective on the offensive end. Given that the swingman is averaging 17.9 PPG this postseason, his loss will be felt. But then again, that average is heavily skewed by a 34-point effort in Game 4 of the last series. This Celtics team did not shoot particularly well vs. the Bucks in Round 1 (only two games above 42.0 FG%), so needless to say I don't see a repeat of their 48% shooting from Game 1 of this series. I especially don't see them shooting 17 of 36 again from three-point range or 18 of 19 from the FT line. The Over is 10-2 the Celtics' last 12 games overall, but that's a trend I see reversing itself moving forward.

While Boston should certainly be commended for its Game 1 performance, the truth of the matter is that Philadelphia was highly unlikely to continue its torrid pace, which had seen them win 18 of 19 games. The cold reality is they've shot below 43% from the field in four of the past five games anyway. As stated above, they are now dealing with the #1 team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. In five meetings w/ the Celtics this season, the Sixers have yet to top 103 pts in any of them. They've also shot 42.2% of worse in four of them. Joel Embiid was quick to tout Game 1 as not being "representative" of what the team is capable of, and while that might be true against most teams, I'm not sure it applies to facing the Celtics. Embiid himself struggled in Game 1 as he continues to get used to the new offense the team is playing. The Under is 10-4 this season for Philadelphia if they allowed 115+ pts the previous game. 8* Under Sixers/Celtics 

10* Over Cavaliers/Raptors (6:05 ET): It was a familiar story for Toronto in Game 1 as they once again failed to beat LeBron James, this time doing so in one of the most excruciating ways possible. That is, they lost in overtime (by a single point) after never trailing in regulation. To add insult to injury, James didn't even perform that well (though he did have a triple double). By his own admission, it was "probably one of my worst games of the season." James shot just 12 for 30 from the field, including 1 for 8 from three-point range, and additionally went 1 for 6 from the FT line. He was only 3 for 15 in the fourth quarter & overtime, his most misses from the field in a 4Q/OT in his entire career. And Cleveland still won the game. The key was an epic collapse from the Raptors as down the stretch they missed 16 of 17 shots at one point. Neither team shot better than 43% for the game.

For the first time in these playoffs, Game 1 saw a James' teammate score at least 20 pts in a game. It was J.R. Smith of all people, who like most Cavs not named LeBron had been having a poor playoffs so far. Overall, five Cavaliers scored in double figures, led by James' 23. One of them was NOT Kevin Love, who continues to shoot poorly (was 3 for 13 in Gm 1). It would be easy to dismiss the Smith contribution as unlikely to repeat itself in Game 2, but the fact of the matter is that LeBron's supporting cast has been so poor thus far in the playoffs that you can't help but think the collective effort WILL improve. As a team, Cleveland averaged 110.9 PPG in the regular season (2nd in the East, only to Toronto) and was 5th in offensive efficiency. James is also very likely to see his own shooting percentage improve for Game 2.

If there is hope for Toronto, it's that Cleveland also ranked 28th in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They were ahead of only Sacramento and Phoenix. I wrote about this a lot in the first round series vs. Indiana where the Cavs somewhat shockingly allowed more than 101 pts only once. But in Game 1 Tuesday, there were signs of regression despite the Raptors inability to hit a shot late. What was so frustrating from the Toronto perspective is that so many of the missed shots were wide-open. At home, it's difficult to envision them missing those same opportunities again. After all, this is a team that averages 112.5 PPG at home and ranked third in the league in offensive efficiency (behind only Houston and Golden State) in the regular season. I see both teams shooting better here in Game 2 than they did in Game 1 when they each finished w/ 105 pts at the end of regulation anyway. For the season, Cleveland still allows 109.2 PPG. 10* Over Cavaliers/Raptors

10* Utah (8:05 ET): Game 1 of this second round series took place Sunday afternoon and was the fifth time this season that the Jazz and Rockets faced off. For a fifth time, it was Houston prevailing in lopsided fashion, doing so 110-96 as 11.5-pt chalk. The Rockets are now 5-0 SU and ATS against the Jazz this year, every win coming by a minimum of 11 pts. The average margin of victory has been 16.8 points per game. As someone who "stood on the sidelines" for the Game 1 spread (I instead cashed the Under), I have to say "isn't it time for Utah to play Houston close?" Now not having Ricky Rubio (strained left hamstring) definitely hurts - both literally and figuratively - but I believe the Jazz can overcome his absence by playing their usual brand of defense (#2 in efficiency during regular season) and at least cover the spread here. Take the points. 

Game 1 was never really close as Houston jumped out to 13-point lead by the end of the first quarter and pretty much coasted from there. They led by 25 at halftime and by 18 entering the fourth quarter. The Rockets shot 53.1% from three-point range, making 17 of 32 attempts w/ seven of those coming from James Harden (career playoff-high). Harden had 41 points, eight rebounds and seven assists for the game as the usually defensively-minded Jazz had no answers. I had thought the Houston-Minnesota series would offer up a blueprint for Utah to defend Harden, but it was to no avail. If you recall, early on in Round 1, Harden struggled when the T'wolves sank their big man, Karl-Anthony Towns, in the paint to prevent drives. With Rudy Gobert in the middle, I thought the Jazz would do better than they did in Game 1. Fortunately for them, it was only "one game." 

Utah missed 15 of its 22 three-point attempts and missing 9 of 22 free throws certainly didn't help matters either. I expect the team to improve in both areas for Game 2. Something to keep in mind here is that the Jazz closed the regular season on a 29-6 run. While there was a stretch back in March where they dropped three of five, they haven't lost B2B games (save for the reg season finale (meaningless)/playoff opener) since before MLK Day! Including the playoffs, this is a team that has won 33 of 42 games and getting double digits. I think they can keep it close here against Houston, for a change. The quick turnaround between series did Utah no favors (eliminated OKC on Friday), but here they've had two days in between games. Houston is just 5-10 ATS this season playing w/ exactly two days rest. 10* Utah 

10* Toronto (8:05 ET): LeBron James is the best basketball player in the world (and no worse than the 2nd best player ever), but Cleveland is not a great team. Throughout my analysis of their 1st round series vs. Indiana, I mentioned how the Cavs finished the regular season ranked 28th in the league in defensive efficiency. That was ahead of only Sacramento and Phoenix. Speaking of that 1st round series (which just ended Sunday, mind you), it went the distance (seven games) and the Cavs four wins were by a combined 14 points. None were by greater than four. Meanwhile, two of their three losses were by 18 or more points and they were outscored by 40 pts in the series. That's the worst total point differential for any team that won a playoff series since 1984!

Now Toronto has an ugly past to overcome here. Namely, they've only won two playoff Game 1's in franchise history, one of those coming in the last round vs. Washington. They've been eliminated each of the last two years by the Cavaliers, even getting swept last year. However, there are signs that 2018 could be a little different. Namely, the Raptors have the homecourt advantage this year. In the regular season, they owned the best home point differential in the entire league. They won all three home games in the 1st round vs. Washington, all by eight points or more. Yes, they did drop two of three regular season meetings w/ Cleveland. But both losses came on the road and were by six points or less. The one meeting that took place here North of the Border (back in January) saw the Raptors win by 34 points! 

Had I told you before the series that Cleveland would allow only 100.6 points per game to Indiana, you would probably assume that they'd advance w/ relative ease, not be taken the distance. But despite allowing more than 101 pts just one time, the Cavs needed a full seven games. Tristan Thompson and George Hill stepped up big on Sunday, but overall James had little to no help in the series. LeBron led the team in all five major statistical categories and scored 3x as much as any other Cav. The quick turnaround between series does the visitors no favors here. Let's not forget Cleveland barely outscored its opponents during the regular season. It would take another superhuman effort from James just for the Cavs to have a chance here and I can't see him averaging 34.4 PPG on 55% shooting again like he did vs. the Pacers. 10* Toronto

10* Boston (8:05 ET): Well, according to oddsmakers and pundits, it seems as if a "changing of the guard" has already taken place even before this series has begun. Going into Sunday, Philadelphia was the betting favorite to win the Eastern Conference (though that could change based on Cleveland advancing). But what is for certain is that the Sixers are favored not only to win this series (-400 odds last I looked!); they're favored in Boston for Game 1. Given the Celtics' lack of health, maybe that shouldn't be a surprise. Plus, Philly has won 20 of its last 21 games. But I'll hang my hat w/ the home dog that is getting no respect here, noting the fact they were #1 in defensive efficiency during the regular season. A long layoff also could leave the 76ers a tad rusty. Take the points.

These teams met four times during the regular season w/ Boston winning three of them. But not much can be ascertained by those individual results, considering the Celtics had Irving and the Sixers hadn't totally matured yet. The last meeting, which took place all the way back on January 18th, saw Philadelphia win here in Boston by a score of 89-80. Going into that game, the Sixers' record was 20-20. They finished the regular season at 52-30 and the finished off the Heat in just five games in Round 1. Three of the four wins were by double-digits, but don't think for a second that the Celtics are on par w/ the Heat. The homecourt advantage in Boston is very real as is evident by the fact the Celtics won all four home games in Round 1. 

Boston is also 20-7 ATS as a dog this season, including a perfect 8-0 at home (7-1 straight up)! So, when they're undervalued like this, it's often the best time to strike. Going to back to them losing the last regular season matchup to the Sixers, Brad Stevens' team is a remarkable 65-36 ATS playing w/ revenge the L3 seasons, including 20-5 ATS this season. Now, I realize they don't have Irving and could also be without Jaylen Brown in Game 1. But the defense is the key. After a shaky start to the Milwaukee series, the Celtics allowed an average of just 93.3 PPG the last three games. The Sixers, as successful as they've been down the stretch, still allow an average of 107.1 PPG on the road. Then there is the matter of that 20-1 SU stretch, will be difficult (if not impossible) to maintain. 10* Boston 

10* Under Jazz/Rockets (3:30 ET): It's a quick turnaround between series for Utah, who just eliminated Oklahoma City Friday night. It took them six games in what should NOT be considered an upset as they had the better point differential and net efficiency rating in the regular season. This Jazz team must be taken seriously as their record since MLK day is a remarkable 33-8 SU. Now a second round tilt w/ Houston will be a far greater challenge than what they faced vs. the poorly constructed Thunder, yet the same could be said for Houston as the Jazz will be a much stiffer challenge than the defensively challenged Timberwolves. In fact, Utah was #2 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. That's a big reason why I am on the Under in Game 1. 

It only took five games for the Rockets to eliminate the T'wolves. Offensively, they got off to a slow start in that series, failing to hit their season average in scoring in each of the first three games. Consider that Minnesota was only 22nd in defensive efficiency. The Rockets scored 119 and 122 pts in the final two games, but it didn't come easy in Game 4 as they shot only 43.5%. Minnesota may have actually provided a "blueprint" of sorts for Utah to defend likely MVP James Harden. The T'wolves dropped Karl-Anthony Towns back in the pain in a "rim protection strategy" that seemed to work most of the time. Utah employing something similar w/ Rudy Gobert, a much better defender than Towns, would likely be even more effective. The Jazz were one only two teams (Spurs) in the regular season that allowed fewer than 100 PPG. Three times, they held OKC under the century mark and over the last five games, they allowed an average of only 98.2 PPG. 

But not all the news is good for Utah coming into this series. Starting point guard Ricky Rubio could be out for as many as 10 days and will definitely miss Game 1. That's a killer on the offensive end as Rubio was having a career year. Also, the Jazz were swept by the Rockets in the regular season series, losing the four games by an average of 17.5 points per game. The Jazz scored 101 pts or fewer in three of the four games and actually saw their scoring decrease w/ each passing game. They also failed to score 100 pts in the last two games vs. Oklahoma City. 10* Under Jazz/Rockets

10* Golden State (10:35 ET): Both of these teams made it look pretty easy in Round 1. With Golden State, that really wasn't much of a surprise as they were facing a depleted San Antonio squad (minus Kawhi Leonard) that also was dealing w/ the wife of their head coach passing away. The Warriors didn't sweep, but considering they were w/o Steph Curry (questionable to play tonight), finishing the series in five games has to be considered a "victory" in every sense of the word. Three of the four victories came by double digits. As for New Orleans, arguably no team in the playoffs has exceeded expectations any more than they have. They shockingly swept Portland, also going 4-0 ATS in the process. The Pelicans have now covered nine in a row, but I think they're overvalued coming into this series. Lay the points. 

Over the last three seasons, New Orleans has beaten Golden State only once in 11 tries. That came in the final regular season meeting this year, 126-120, right here in Oakland. That game was played earlier this month and while the Warriors did have Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson all active, they were a different team at the time. All three of those players, in addition to Curry, had missed time due to injury and were still trying to "get their legs back." Both teams shot the ball remarkably well in that game, but Golden State getting to the free throw line only 11 times (and making just 7) really hurt in the end. The "wild card" here is Curry's potential return, which will happen sometime in this series, possibly as early as tonight. Incredibly, New Orleans is 2-26 SU the L28 meetings w/ Golden State, including a four-game sweep in the first round back in 2015. 

That sweep was the only time previous to this year that Anthony Davis had ever been in the postseason. He certainly made this chance count w/ a dominant effort against the Blazers as he averaged 33 points and 12 rebounds per game. But I see no way the Pelicans perform as well here as they did in Round 1. Of the eight playoff teams in the Western Conference, New Orleans had the worst point differential in the regular season. I think the draw vs. Portland was a fortunate one as the Blazers were lucky to finish third in the Conference. The Pelicans' poor defensive numbers may also come back to haunt them in this series as they gave up 110.4 PPG in the reg season, most among all playoff teams. Golden State was again the top team in offensive efficiency this year and led the league w/ a 113.5 PPG scoring average. The Dubs are also always underrated defensively as they finished tied for seventh in efficiency during the regular season. This is a team that has lost only two games in its last five playoff series. Curry or no Curry, I see the Warriors taking Game 1 rather easily. 10* Golden State

8* Over Bucks/Celtics (8:05 ET): The home team has won all six games of this best of seven series, so here we are in Boston for Game 7 Saturday. Quite frankly, I was not crazy about either of these teams coming into the postseason as Milwaukee was the lone team in the field to be outscored during the regular season while Boston is injury-riddled, most notably being w/o Kyrie Irving. There was a string of shockingly good shooting performances, from either one side or both, in the first four games (all Overs). But that has quickly changed w/ B2B Unders in the L2 games, both of which saw 183 or less total pts scored. Thus, the O/U line is way down here compared to where it's been previously in this series. Though the Celtics' calling card is defense, I'll call for Game 7 to go Over the low number. 

Boston finished the regular season #1 in the NBA in defensive efficiency. However, Milwaukee is shooting better than 50% from the field in this series. Really, the Bucks have had only one bad shooting night in the entire series and that was the last game here in Boston, Game 5 on Tuesday. They bounced back and stayed alive by shooting 50.7% in a 97-86 Game 6 win, which also doubled as their best defensive effort of the series as well. Looking strictly at shooting percentages in this series, one would think Milwaukee should have already advanced. Boston is shooting only 42.7% in the six games and that number would be even lower if not for shooting 53.3% in Game 2. In all other games, they've been 42% or lower. Looking through all the numbers from this series, something else that sticks out is how bad the three-point shooting has been the past two games. The teams have combined to go just 37 of 126, which is an ugly 29.3% 

That three-point shooting can only improve here and at home, I certainly think Boston will shoot better tonight. The Bucks do allow 107.8 PPG on the road for the season. While Game 5 was a bit of an "ugly win," the Celtics did score 113 and 120 pts respectively in Game 1 and 2 victories here at home. Bucks' games average more than 212 PPG for the year, so this total is really low from their perspective. In fact, it is very likely to close as the lowest O/U line for any of their games this season! For the record, the Over is 3-0 in Milwaukee games this season when the O/U line is 197.0 or lower. Two of the three games even saw at least 217 pts scored. Even from Boston's perspective, this O/U line is low. You just don't see many NBA totals at 195 pts or lower anymore. 8* Over Bucks/Celtics

10* Over Cavaliers/Pacers (8:05 ET): To quote Whitesnake, "Here I go again, on my own." The low-scoring nature of this series (Under is 5-0!) has flat out stunned me given Cleveland's poor defensive marks during the regular season. They ranked 28th in the league in efficiency, ahead of only the Kings and Suns (you're probably sick of me saying that at this point). Coming into this series, had you told me that the Cavs would hold Indiana to 100 pts or less in five straight games, I might have guessed the series would be over at this point. But it's not and LeBron James had to (again!) bail his team out w/ an incredible block & then three-pointer in the closing seconds Wednesday. (Goaltend or not, the Cavs still would have won). As for Indiana, we're starting to see their record in close games regress, which is something I would have predicted coming into the playoffs. 

The Cavs were shockingly blown out on their home floor in Game 1, losing 98-80. Since then, they've come back to take the series lead w/ all four games decided by four points or less. Now, they try and close out the Pacers on the road. Again, I'm not shocked to see Indiana losing close games here. They were a league-best 11-2 SU in games decided by three points or less during the regular season, which is obviously extraordinarily fortunate. While they did win Game 3 at home, 92-90, note they were down by 17 at halftime. Really, Cleveland dominated much of the way in Games 2-4. Game 5 was a back and forth affair w/ the Cavs rallying this time behind an incredible James performance that saw him go for 44 pts (15-15 FT's!), 10 rebounds and 8 assists. 

What has surprised me in this series is how low-scoring it has been. The Cavs still are averaging 109.9 PPG for the year, even though they haven't hit that average once in this series. The same can be said for the Pacers and their YTD scoring average of 105.0 PPG (which jumps to 106.4 at home). Both teams finished ranked inside the top 12 in offensive efficiency during the regular season w/ Cleveland 5th. Of course, the Cavs also allow 109.1 PPG, second most among playoff teams (New Orleans). Three-point shooting has generally been poor (from both teams) in this series and really we've gone three straight games w/o either team shooting the ball particularly well overall. I'll call for that streak to come to an end here in Game 6. It's not like the teams aren't scoring. All five games have seen the team w/ the halftime lead score at least 55 pts. The current Under streak (now at six games) is the longest for Cleveland all season. 10* Over Cavaliers/Pacers

10* Boston (8:05 ET): The home team has won and covered all five games in this series w/ the Celtics now holding a 3-2 lead after Tuesday's 92-87 win as 4.5-pt favorite. Personally, I went w/ the Under, which was a ridiculously easy winner (cashed by 25 pts) after each of the first four games finished Over the total. So now Milwaukee is facing elimination, but back home where they took both Games 3 and 4. Their second win came on a last-second tip-in by Giannis Antetokounmpo, but because Game 3 was so lopsided, the Bucks have actually outscored the Celtics in the series. But something I predicted for Game 5 came to fruition and that's Milwaukee's hot shooting of the past few games would start to cool off, thanks to a Boston defense which ranked #1 in efficiency during the regular season. Sure enough it did as the Bucks shot just 36.8% in Game 5. I'll hang my hat w/ that Boston defense yet again for Game 6, this time taking the points. 

The Celtics are no slouch when it comes to getting points. They are 20-6 ATS as dogs this season. They are also 28-14 ATS in road games. We've already touched on the defense, which has been the calling card under HC Brad Stevens. The Celtics allowed the fewest number of points per game in the regular season in addition to being first in efficiency. The loss of several players, most notably Kyrie Irving, has not and should not effect them at all on that end of the floor. Now, offensively, the team has struggled to shoot the ball in this series. They've shot just 43.8% in this series and that percentage would be much lower had they not connected at a 53.3% clip. But just like Milwaukee's previously hot shooting was due to hit a "speedbump," I feel Boston's is due to improve. Marcus Smart is also now back, remember.

Milwaukee is the only entrant in the playoff field that was outscored during the regular season. They trailed by as many as 16 points in Game 5. It was 18 turnovers from the Celtics, who were also scoreless for a five-minute stretch in the third quarter, that kept the Bucks in the game. If you followed my excellent NCAA Tournament run, then you already know how much I value play on the defensive end of the floor and especially when the better defensive team is getting points. The Bucks are also just 14-26-3 ATS in home games this season. 10* Boston

10* Over Pacers/Cavaliers (7:05 ET): Let's try this yet again, shall we? While most in the national media remain focused on whether or not this series might end up being the first time LeBron James loses in the first round, to me, the most shocking thing about this series has been all four games staying Under the total. Our Over play in Game 4 suffered a brutal fate as the Cavs' Jeff Green missed a free throw in the closing seconds, costing us a win. Given Cleveland's defensive ineptitude during the regular season, I'm not sure what is more surprising: the fact they've held Indiana to 100 pts or less in all four games or the fact that they're just 2-2 in the series despite doing so. I think we're finally in store for an Over here in Game 5 (I realize I've said that before!), and that's the way I'm playing this one. 

As I've stated numerous times before, Cleveland ranked 28th in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They finished ahead of only Sacramento and Phoenix. No team has ever made an NBA Finals w/ a defensive efficiency rating that low. Heck, only two playoff teams finished lower than 20th (them and soon to be eliminated Minnesota). So it's definitely a surprise to see the Pacers getting held to 100 pts or less in all four games. Indiana averages 105.2 PPG on 47.2% shooting for the year. Meanwhile, Cleveland averages 110.1 PPG for the year on an almost identical shooting percentage. We've seen some good shooting nights so far in this series (not Game 4), but it simply hasn't translated into a lot of points. It's also hurt that the number of free throws attempted in each game hasn't been that large. 

In every game of the series, at least one of the teams has scored 55 pts in the first half. After Cleveland infamously "nose-dived" in the second half of Game 3 (blew 57-40 halftime edge), they very nearly did the same again in Game 4, but this time were able to hold on for the 104-100 victory. A big reason they were able to hold on was that Pacers' leading scorer Victor Oladipo had himself an "off-night" as he finished the game at just 5 for 20 shooting. I expect him to improve upon that percentage and overall scoring tonight. In fact, Oladipo is just 19 for 53 from the field the L3 games after scoring 32 pts in Game 1. So, he's definitely due to improve. As for the Cavaliers, LeBron continues to carry the rest of the team "kicking and screaming," but tonight at home, I expect the "role players" to perform better than they have in the previous two games. 10* Over Pacers/Cavaliers

8* Under Spurs/Warriors (10:35 ET): San Antonio was able to "circle the wagons" in Game 4 and thus delay the inevitable (that being elimination) by winning 103-90 as home underdogs. They did so w/ HC Greg Popovich missing a second straight game due to the death of his wife. An emotional a win as that might have been, I don't think many are looking for the Spurs to last much longer (no Kwhai Leonard remember) and tonight's probably the night that their season ends. However, I don't think for a second that they won't go down w/o a fight. Golden State, who trailed by as many as 17 pts in Game 4, is w/o Steph Curry and thus has its own set of issues right now. I realize it was only "one bad shooting night" in Game 4, but I like this potential close out game to stay Under the total. 

The Warriors missed 21 of 28 three-point attempts Sunday and shot just 37.8% overall from the field. In each of their three victories in the series, they were north of 50% overall. But they are just 14 of 61 from three-point range the L2 games. That's where they obviously miss Curry, but let's also not forget that San Antonio is one of the best defensive teams in the league. Only them and Utah allowed fewer than 100 PPG during the regular season and the Spurs also finished fourth in defensive efficiency. Game 4 snapped a seven-game Over streak for the Spurs' in the postseason when trailing in a series. But remember that this particular iteration doesn't really have the "horses" past ones did and I sincerely doubt we're going to see the same type of production we saw from Manu Ginobili, in particular, here that we did on Sunday. 

Lost in this great four-year run the Dubs have had is that they are a good defensive team. It was another top 10 finish in efficiency this year and they're holding San Antonio to just 98.2 PPG (on 42.3% shooting) in the series. In their last six games (includes last two reg season games), the Spurs have not scored more than 103 pts. They were fortunate to make 15 of 28 three-point attempts in Game 4, but that was after going a somewhat horrific 11 of 61 from behind the arc the previous two games. I realize that this is a low total from Golden State's perspective, but I think they'll hold the Spurs in severe "check" offensively tonight and won't need anywhere close to their "usual" amount of scoring to close out the series. 8* Under Spurs/Warriors

10* Under Bucks/Celtics (7:30 ET): Have the oddsmakers simply underestimated these teams ability to score? Through the first four games of this best of seven series, it would certainly appear that they have. The Over is a perfect 4-0, though Game 4 just barely snuck Over after Giannis Antetokounmpo's game winning putback gave the Bucks a 104-102 win on Sunday. We're all knotted at two games a piece in this series w/ the other trend (besides the Over) being that the home team has won every game. The scene now shifts back to Boston where the Celtics won the first two games, but they remain undermanned and have been outshot in every game in the series. The Celtics managed only 35 1st half points in each game at Milwaukee and while there might be a natural "jump" in scoring w/ them being back home, I believe it to be minimal at best and it will be defense that carries them, if they are to win here. Take the Under.

You have to remember that the strength of this Celtics team in the regular season was defense. They ranked #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and allowed just 100.4 PPG, which was third fewest in the entire league (fewest in the Eastern Conference). However, that defense has been under fire in this series as the Bucks have shot a stunning 54.2% in the four games, averaging 108.2 PPG. While the loss of Kyrie Irving is huge for the Celtics, that should not be having an adverse effect on the team defensively. Yet going back to the end of the regular season, Boston has gone Over in eight straight games. Totals have generally been low during this time, but note Celtics' games are still only averaging 205 PPG for the season. 

I can't see Milwaukee continuing to shoot the ball as well as they have moving forward. In that regard, look for Celtics' HC Brad Stevens to make adjustments. I have little faith in a Bucks team that was actually outscored during the regular season, beyond Antetokounmpo. They were one of the top Over teams in the league during the regular season, but I've been really surprised as to how well they're shooting in this series. The Bucks' bench also scored 31 pts in Game 4, a number that should decrease significantly tonight. As for Boston offensively, that's where they do miss Irving and the "next man up" mentality isn't always going to work. Jaylen Brown did have 34 points Sunday (career-high), but note that Game 1 "hero" Terry Rozier had only 10. Looking at this roster, I just don't see a "reliable" scoring option on a night to night basis. The Celtics have shot below 42% in three of the four games in this series. 10* Under Bucks/Celtics

10* Oklahoma City (10:35 ET): The Thunder fell behind in this best of seven series, two games to one, w/ a 115-102 loss on Friday. After taking Game 1, OKC has now dropped back to back games and would be in REAL trouble were they to lose again here. Oddly, after getting off to poor starts in both home games, the Thunder raced out to a 30-22 advantage at the end of the 1st quarter in Game 3. But they found themselves down by halftime and a surprising triple double from Jazz PG Ricky Rubio led to the final result. The Thunder shot the ball well enough, but were outrebounded badly. Given how Utah tends to defend here in Salt Lake, wasting a good shooting night can end up as a big missed opportunity when viewed in retrospect. But I'll take the points here in Game 4 as I expect the Thunder to play better. 

I'd go ahead and guarantee that we won't be seeing another triple double from Rubio, but Russell Westbrook has already beaten me to the punch in that regard. Westbrook has declared that he will see to it. It would also help if the All-Star point guard shot better than 5 for 17 like he did in Game 3. I suspect he will and thus finish w/ more than 14 points. Though he continues to post good all-around numbers, Westbrook has really struggled in both Thunder losses in this series, going for just 33 total pts on 12 of 36 shooting. Paul George has played well, but Carmelo Anthony has been persona non grata, averaging just 15.3 PPG in the series. The Thunder are 7-4 SU off a double digit loss this season and rarely are a dog in that role (as they are here). 

Utah was my 10* Game of the Week in Game 2 (plus the points) and rewarded me there w/ a straight up victory. I wasn't surprised to see them win Game 3 either, but now I question the number of points they're being asked to lay. This has been a great team down the stretch obviously as they've won 30 of their last 37 games overall. But in eight meetings this year w/ the Thunder, they've been favored by more than 1.5 pts just twice and Friday was the first time. The Jazz also shot well in Game 3, better overall than the Thunder in fact, and I don't see them hitting 52.5% overall from the field again. Nor do I see B2B blowouts, so again, taking the points is the way to go. 10* Oklahoma City

10* Over Cavs/Pacers (8:35 ET): Cleveland is in some real trouble here. Yes, they dominated virtually all of Games 2 & 3 except for "the end." That last little tidbit ended up costing them Game 3 Friday night as they blew all of a 17-pt halftime lead and ended up losing 92-90. What's really scary if you're a Cavs fan is that your team, which finished 28th in the regular season in defensive efficiency (ahead of only Sacramento & Phoenix), has given up less than 100 pts in all three games and yet is down 2-1 in the series as well as 0-3 against the spread. They're now just 4-13 ATS head to head vs. Indiana the L3 seasons despite being 12-5 straight up. I don't really want to bet against the Cavs off a loss, but what I will do here is go w/ the Over as all three games in the series staying Under may be the biggest surprise of all!

Because the Under is a perfect 3-0 in this series, the O/U line has come down somewhat significantly since Game 1. Totals for the first two games were 212.5 and 213. Both Unders cashed by double digits, so the oddsmakers dipped the number for Game 3 and even that one was an easy winner for Under bettors. So now it's been another noticeable dip for Game 4. I know I wrote this prior to Friday, but I think we've reached a "tipping point" of sorts when it comes to the current O/U line. I already mentioned how bad Cleveland was defensively in the regular season. They continue to give up an average of 109.4 PPG for the year. They also average 110.1 PPG for the year, themselves. So this is a really low number from their perspective. 

Indiana is no slouch offensively either, at least in the regular season they weren't, as despite failing to break 100 pts in any of the three games here they average 105.2 PPG. At home, that average jumps to 106.6. Three-point shooting has been pretty woeful in this series - from both sides - and the number of free throw attempts hasn't been what it should be (this despite a LOT of fouls being called in Game 3). I've got to imagine those numbers go up here. Cleveland was held to just 33 second half pts on Friday, an unconscionably low number, after scoring 57 by halftime. They had only 12 pts in the third quarter. With George Hill's back giving him trouble, Cavs HC Ty Lue is reportedly set to start Jose Calderon at point guard. I actually think that's an upgrade based on necessity. Following three or more consecutive Unders this season, the Cavs are 8-4 Over. 10* Over Cavs/Pacers

8* Under Raptors/Wizards (6:05 ET): The first three games of this series have all gone Over the total, most of them comfortably so. I was actually on the Over in Game 1. After a ridiculously high-scoring Game 2 (Raptors won 130-119 to take a 2-0 series lead), oddsmakers adjusted the O/U line for Game 3 by several points, but even that wasn't high enough as the teams combined for another 225 pts. But this time it was the Wizards prevailing, 122-103, as a slight favorite at home. That was obviously a must-win for Washington as no team in NBA history has ever overcome an 0-3 series deficit. But note for Game 4, the line has shifted to where Toronto is now a slight favorite. I'm leaving that alone, but I do think that we're in store for an Under here tonight. I just don't see the two teams keeping up the ridiculous shooting we've seen in the first three games. 

Washington shot 55.3% from the floor in Game 3 and has shot above 50% for the series. They've scored the exact number of points that Toronto has. A large key for them so far has been three-point shooting where they've gone 28 of 66 for the series, or 42.4%. While a good shooting team in the regular season, these playoff numbers are higher than normal for the Wiz. They had 69 pts by halftime in Game 3 and the starting backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal combined for 56 pts (w/ 28 each). Marcin Gortat also came up w/ his best performance of the series w/ 16 pts at a time when many thought he might get dropped from the starting lineup. Do not expect Washington to be as prolific offensively tonight as Game 3 was certainly one of those "once in a series" type efforts. 

Toronto is also shooting better than 50% for the series, though they were at only 45.1% in Game 3. Now this team is not nearly as effective on the road compared to North of the Border. They are #1 in the league in home scoring differential. Like Washington, the Raptors have been lights out from three-point range in this series as they have gone 41 of 93, which is 44%. Again, that's a percentage one would think almost HAS to come down. Free throw shooting has also been ridiculous for both times. My dad often calls me to lament FT shooting in this league, but I've received no correspondence from him on this series and for good reason. The two teams are combining to hit well over 80% from the charity stripe, missing only 19 of 138 attempts. Again, that's a percentage I don't view as being sustainable. The Raptors had an uncharacteristic 19 turnovers, which led to 28 Wizards' points in Game 3. I don't see that happening again either. 8* Under Raptors/Wizards

8* Over Rockets/T'wolves (7:35 ET): Coming into this series, the expectation was for a lot of points, but that really hasn't come to fruition yet. The first two games have both stayed Under, the last one by a healthy margin as Houston routed Minnesota 102-82 to take a 2-0 series lead. Particularly frightening if you're a T'wolves fan is that Game 2 saw Rockets' star James Harden shoot only 2 for 18 from the floor (including 1 of 10 from three-point range) and still your team lost by 20. Granted, the series now shifts to the Twin Cities, but I'm not confident that will change much. What I am confident in though is that we're in store for a lot more scoring in Game 3. Take the Over. 

Houston was neck and neck w/ Golden State all year long for the most efficient offense in the game. They averaged 112.4 PPG as well, just a bucket less than the Dubs for the highest scoring average in the league. So its certainly rare to see them having been below that average for six consecutive games (all Unders) as well as seven of the last eight. In fact, the Under is now 9-1 Under in the Rockets' previous 10 games. Harden's poor shooting night certainly didn't help matters in Game 2, but he'll certainly be better tonight. As a team, the Rockets only shot 36.5% in Game 2 and they are a woeful 26 of 89 from three-point range in the series. There's no reason NOT to expect those numbers to go up considering Minnesota has never been stout defensively and came into the playoffs ranked 22nd in efficiency.

Now the T'wolves were also a top four team in offensive efficiency in the regular season. They averaged 109.5 PPG in the regular season. So their own offensive efforts in the first two games of this series are even more disappointing that Houston's. They're only 13 of 41 from three-point range, not that they're known as the most prolific three-point shooting team anyway. But they were just 38.7% overall from the floor in Game 2 after shooting 43.7% in Game 1. I think a return home (where they averaged 111.1 PPG in the regular season) is bound to do them some good. Following a double digit loss this season, Minnesota is 8-4 Over. Their three top players - Karl-Anthony Towns, Jimmy Butler and Andrew Wiggins - all scored 13 pts or fewer in Game 2 w/ Towns making only two of nine field goal attempts. Expect a lot more production from that trio tonight. 8* Over Rockets/T'wolves

10* Portland (5:05 ET): Needless to say, the third-seeded Trail Blazers did NOT expect to find themselves in the current situation going into Game 4. That would be down 0-3 in the series and facing elimination. They've been thoroughly outclassed by the Pelicans w/ the margin of defeat growing greater every game. But, as a result of that, we've seen a massive swing in the pointspread from Game 1. After being six-point favorites for Games 1 & 2, the Blazers are now six-point DOGS here in Game 4. I came into this series thinking New Orleans was the undervalued team (cashed them as a 10* in Gm 1) and was proven right, but now things have shifted too far in the other direction. It's predictable, given what we have seen in the first three games, but I can't see Portland going down w/o a fight and this is too many points to lay for the Pelicans. Take the points. 

New Orleans thoroughly dominanted Game 3 here at home, taking a 64-45 advantage by halftime and never looking back. They are the highest seed (6th) to take a 3-0 series led in the NBA playoffs since '01, so yes, this is a surprise. Personally, I didn't buy Portland as the third best team in the West coming out of the regular season, but a case could also be made that the Pelicans weren't the sixth best team either. They do have a virtually identical net efficiency rating compared to Portland (which is why I thought they were the undervalued team in Gms 1 & 2), but now "the shoe is on the other foot." Also, the Pelicans' regular season point differential ranked 15th out of the 16 playoff teams and was just ninth in the West. 

There's all sorts of finger-pointing going on in the Pacific Northwest right now and for good reason. Head coach Terry Stotts may not survive if his team is swept here as his career playoff record is very bad (12-27 SU). Also, leading scorer Damian Lillard has REALLY struggled with the different defensive looks New Orleans has thrown at him in this series. He's averaging only 18.3 PPG in the series (down from almost 27.0 in the reg season) on 32.7% shooting, including 8 of 25 from three-point range. I have to believe he's going to play better here in Game 4. At the same time, I just can't see the Pelicans' Nikola Mirotic playing as well as he did (30 points) in Game 3. No team seeded sixth or lower has ever swept a series since the NBA did away w/ the best of five first round scenario some time ago. The Blazers are 6-2 ATS this season following a losing streak of three or more games. 10* Portland

8* Boston (9:35 ET): While it appears that the oddsmakers are almost "inviting" Celtics' money here, this is the other game on the Friday NBA card (see Toronto-Washington) where blindly taking the "zig zag theory" seems like a fool's errand. While the "zig zag theory" (simply taking the ATS loser of the previous game) has enjoyed a relative degree of success in the past in NBA playoff betting, its effectiveness seems to have waned in more recent times. Case in point, after squeaking out a win and cover (needed overtime) in Game 1, Boston was far more dominant in Game 2, winning 120-106 even though they actually closed as one-point dogs at some shops. Yes, the Bucks have outshot the Celtics in both games so far, but should we be counting on that happening again and if not, it's hard to make an arguement for them, especially w/ what looks like a massive coaching advantage for the Celtics. Take the points. 

Bucks' HC Joe Prunty would be better served playing his starters longer, and together more, moving forward. When they're on the court, Milwaukee has arguably looked like the better team in this series. But w/ a deeper roster (despite a myriad of injuries!) and far superior coaching, the Celtics have counteracted that. They may not have Kyrie Irving for the playoffs, but Jaylen Brown has stepped up for Brad Stevens' team, scoring 50 pts in the first two games. This is just far too many points for the top defensive team in the league (in terms of efficiency) to be getting in this spot. The Celtics are a ridiculous 19-5 ATS as underdogs this season. Remember that Milwaukee is the ONLY team in the playoffs that was outscored in the regular season.

Boston finished #1 at the betting window during the regular season as well, going 48-30-4 ATS overall. I already mentioned how profitable they've been as underdogs, well, they're also 27-13-1 ATS on the road. If you want to count them as underdogs from Game 2 (and like I said, they did close +1 at some shops), they are 12-1 ATS this year coming off a SU win as as dog. Consider that the Bucks shot almost 60% from the floor in Game 2 and still lost by double digits. That's pretty incredible. The likelihood of Milwaukee shooting that well again tonight, even at home, is minimal at best. They even trailed by as many as 20, again despite shooting nearly SIXTY PERCENT from the floor! If the Bucks do win here, I can't see them doing so by the margin the oddsmakers are asking for. 8* Boston

8* Toronto (8:05 ET): This is one of two games on Friday's NBA card where oddsmakers are clearly anticipating "zig zag" bettors stepping in and taking the home team, down 0-2 in its respective series. But while the "zig zag theory" (simply taking the ATS loser of the previous game) has enjoyed a relative degree of success in the past in NBA playoff betting, its effectiveness seems to have waned in more recent times. For instance, those hoping for a Washington bounce back in Game 2 (they lost Gm 1, 114-106 as 7.5-pt dogs) were rudely greeted w/ an early Raptors' firestorm and the result ended up being an even more lopsided Game 2 (130-119). Compared to the lines from the first two games of the series, it sure looks like the oddsmakers have overcompensated here. Take the points.

Now I don't expect Toronto to shoot as well here as they did at home in Game 2. They scored 44 pts in the 1st quarter, had 76 by halftime and never looked back in finishing w/ 130. After making a franchise record 16 three-pointers in Game 1, the Raptors made 13 more in Game 2, though they did slow down in the 2nd half, making only two. The key was the first quarter when every starter made at least one attempt from long distance and the team was 7 of 13 overall. DeMar DeRozan matched a career playoff-high w/ 37 points. This is actually the first time in franchise history that the Raptors have led a series 2-0 and I don't think for a second they are about to let up. Note their scoring average hardly dips on the road (they still average 111.1 PPG) and they're a perfect 4-0 ATS this season after scoring 130+ pts the previous game. 

Washington was not a good ATS team at home during the regular season, going just 15-24-2. They were 10-22-1 ATS when favored here in D.C., so I really don't understand this line at all. Toronto is significantly better and should still be favored on the road in this series. Yes, the Wiz are essentially "playing for their season" tonight, but this is a team that's won only one game in April and it came against an injury-riddled Boston team. Washington has won only three of its last 14 games as well. So this really isn't a very good team and I think this Raptors' team - which had the best year in franchise history - is being severely underrated right now. Toronto has shot better than 50% in both games, outrebounded Washington badly in Game 2 and led by as many as 23. 8* Toronto

10* Over Cavaliers/Pacers (7:05 ET): For some, maybe it's been the lopsided nature of the first two contests that's been the most surprising thing from the series. But for me, it's been the fact that Cleveland - not a good defensive team - has allowed fewer than 100 pts in both games. Now, that comes w/ a giant caveat as Game 1 also saw them turn in their worst offensive performance of the season in a 98-80 outright loss. Led by the greatest player on the planet (LeBron James, duh), they bounced back in Game 2, winning 100-97. Though the final score was close, note Cleveland jumped out to a huge lead and never trailed in the contest. But I come back to the fact the Cavs finished the regular season 28th in defensive efficiency (ahead of only Sacramento & Phoenix) and yet we've had two low-scoring games thus far. I think that changes in Game 3. Take the Over.

I was on Indiana in both Games 1 and 2, so from that perspective, I've had a good read on the series thus far. You could tell pretty quickly though that Game 2 was not going to be their night. LeBron started the game on a 16-2 run by himself and wound up w/ a game-high 46. Cleveland led by as many as 18. It was a far cry from Game 1 when it was the Pacers racing out to a huge early lead and never looking back. I anticipate Game 3 will be more competitive. Now, despite the low score, both teams shot better than 50% in Game 2. But, a big key to the final result was Indiana shooting only 6 of 22 from three-point range. And several of those makes came late in the contest. Helping offset any potential decline in overall shooting from Gm 2 is that I expect a higher # of FT attempts here. The teams combined for just 34 in Gm 2 and Cleveland missed seven of their 22. 

Again, Cleveland is not a good defensive team. Among playoff teams, only New Orleans allowed more points per game in the regular season. Of course, they can score w/ the best of them as well, ranking top five in offensive efficiency during the regular season and averaging 110.4 PPG. Indiana was 12th in offensive efficiency during the regular season and their scoring average jumps to 106.9 PPG here at home. What really hurt them in Gm 2 was early foul trouble for leading scorer Victor Oladipo. This O/U line has come down several points from the first two games and is especially low from Cleveland's perspective compared to most regular season games. Each team's average in terms of points scored and allowed would simply now yield an Over. 10* Over Cavaliers/Pacers

8* Under Sixers/Heat (7:05 ET): In many ways, this is a "mea culpa" of sorts for me after suffering an all-time bad beat w/ the Under in Game 2. With a total of 215.5, I was feeling pretty good about my bet when the game was 104-96 (in Miami's favor) w/ just over two minutes to go. It was a 106-98 game w/ less than 50 seconds remaining. By now, if you're already not aware, you can tell how this story ends. A late flurry, where 12 pts were scored in the game's final 25 seconds, ended w/ a "meaningless" Goran Dragic driving layup (w/ 1.2 seconds remaining!) and the game snuck Over the total (113-103 Miami win). Just like I thought Philly would not be able to replicate its offensive prowess from Game 1 in Game 2 (they didn't), I don't think Miami (Dwayne Wade specifically) will be as prolific here in Game 3 as they were in Game 2. Take the Under.

The other big story from Game 2 (and honestly, the one more cared about than my ill-fortune w/ the total) was the Heat bouncing back in a major way. Led by Wade's 28 points, the Heat ended the Sixers' 17-game win streak in stunning fashion, winning outright as 7.5-pt dogs. They took control w/ a huge second quarter, outscoring Philly 34-13. As I figured they would, the Sixers regressed big-time from three-point range. After making 18 of 28 attempts in Game 1, they were just 7 of 34 in Game 2. This time, it was the Heat's shooting from two-point range that was other-worldly. They went 31 of 57 inside the arc, which is almost 55%. Just like Philly's three-point shooting decline, Miami's two-point decline is almost as predictable here. Remember that the Sixers finished the regular season ranked #3 in defensive efficiency.

As much as I "want" the Under here, it is by no means solely an emotional play for some of the rationale listed above. Philly's scoring drops on the road (common for most teams), but in their case the decline is rougly four points. Opponents only shoot 43.4% from the floor against this team for the year. At the same time, Miami finished the regular season ranked 7th in defensive efficiency and also plays at the slowest pace of any playoff team save for San Antonio. Wade, in particular, will see his production from the last game decline. Also remember that Philadelphia is still w/o Joel Embiid. 8* Under Sixers/Heat 

10* Utah (8:05 ET): Oklahoma City took Game 1, 116-108 as 4.5-pt dogs. They were led by Paul George, who scored 36 pts including a Thunder franchise record eight three-pointers made (on 11 attempts!). He was 13 of 20 overall from the floor. Russell Westbrook added 29-13-8 while Carmelo Anthony had 15 pts. It hasn't always been that "easy" for OKC's "Big 3" and truthfully Game 1 wasn't all that easy, even though they led comfortably for the entirety of the second half. The Jazz did initially get out to an 11-2 lead and given their defensive exploits, I was a little surprised they surrendered it so quickly. I expect a Utah bounce back in Game 2 and will take the points as I won't be the least bit surprised if they snap a long losing streak here in OKC. 

The big storyline for Wednesday will be the health of two key players, one on each side. For Utah, Donovan Mitchell is listed as questionable. He suffered a left foot bruise in Game 1, but did go through practice on Tuesday. More concerning though is the questionable status of George for OKC. He bruised his right hip and was less participatory in the Thunder's team practice on Tuesday. Obviously, the loss of George would be the bigger deal of the two. Sources have indicated that Mitchell will play for Utah. Regardless, I expect the other Jazz players to improve upon their collective Game 1 performances. Meanwhile, I'm not sure how OKC would replace George's lost production. Right now, I'm operating as if he will play, but even so a duplication of Gm 1 seems highly unlikely. 

Utah was #2 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They were the only team besides San Antonio to allow fewer than 100 points per game. Let us not forget just how hot the Jazz were in the second half of the season. Going all the way back to January 24th, this is a team that won 20 of its final 26 regular season games and never during that stretch did they drop B2B contests. Including the regular season finale, now they have, putting them into a rare situation where we can also grab some points. It has been over three months since Utah last lost three straight times. Really, outside of a poor December (that bled into the start of January), this was a remarkably good team. At one point, they lost 13 of 16 games. Other than that streak, they have won 45 of 66 this season! Oklahoma City was NOT a good bet during the regular season, going 24-41 ATS as a favorite. They were also only 2-14 ATS vs. division opponents. 10* Utah

8* Indiana (7:05 ET): Followers of the famed "zig-zag" theory (bet ATS loser of previous game) will surely be on the Cavaliers here after the favorite was thoroughly embarrassed in Game 1 at home, losing 98-80 as seven-point chalk. As someone who was personally on the Pacers, even I have to admit that I was stunned at the ease w/ which they rolled to victory. The 80 pts allowed marked a season-low for Indiana and keep in mind it came against a team that has LeBron James, averages 110.5 PPG and ranked fifth in the regular season in offensive efficiency. But in all due respect to those "zig zag" players, I've got a bit of a different read on this series. I came into the postseason feeling the Cavs would be overrated. After all, they were a league-worst 32-49-1 ATS in the regular season. Maybe Cleveland bounces back and wins Game 2, but they won't cover. Take the points. 

It wasn't just that the Cavs were the worst team in the league at the pay window in the regular season. It's that they set fire to their backers' bankroll when favored, going 19-43-1 ATS. As discussed extensively in my Gm 1 analysis, this team has major issues defensively where they ranked 28th in efficiency, ahead of only lowly Sacramento and Phoenix. Among playoff teams, only New Orleans gives up more points per game. Shockingly though, defense was not the issue in Game 1, offense was. James posted another triple double, but the other four starters combined for just 25 pts. The team shot only 38.5% overall from the field, including 8 of 34 from three-point range and missed 8 of their 20 free throw attempts. Sure, I expect the offensive numbers to improve in Game 2, but if I'm a Cavs fan, there should be a fear about the old defensive issues costing them. Certainly, the inefficiencies on defense can be directly tied to the terrible ATS record from the regular season. 

Indiana has now beaten Cleveland four times in five matchups this year. They incredibly jumped out to a 21-pt lead in the first quarter Sunday and led by as many as 23. Cleveland did cut it to seven in the 2H, but got no closer than that. Victor Oladipo, the Pacers' best player, led the way w/ 32 points. Something else I mentioned in my Game 1 analysis is that even though Indiana is just 5-11 SU vs. Cleveland the L3 seasons, they are 11-4-1 ATS. True to form, here in Cleveland, they are now 2-7 SU in Cleveland and 7-2 ATS. Indiana's only loss to Cleveland this year came on a day when the Cavs shot a ridiculous 56.1% from the floor and still the final margin was only seven. Over the L3 seasons, Cleveland is 13-35 ATS when off a double digit loss (5-15 ATS this year) and 2-11 ATS after scoring 85 pts or less the previous game. 8* Indiana

10* Over Pelicans/Blazers (10:35 ET): Game 1 of this best of seven series treated me well as I took New Orleans plus the points and didn't even need them as they pulled the upset, 97-95 as five-point underdogs. Really, that final margin of victory is a tad bit misleading as the Pelicans led by double digits going into the fourth quarter (led by as many as 19!) before holding on for the outright victory. As I said he would be (in my analysis), Anthony Davis was the best player on the floor, leading the way w/ 35 pts, 14 rebounds and four blocks. While I gave NO an excellent shot at pulling said upset, what really struck me was the low-scoring nature of the contest. On average, Pelicans' games are among the highest scoring in the entire league. We should see far more points scored in Game 2. Take the Over.

The Blazers shot only 37.8% from the field in the series opener, continuing a trend of poor shooting that extends back to the end of the regular season. Three times in the last five games they've failed to score 100 pts, a real oddity for a team that averaged 105.5 PPG in the regular season. They've now been under that average for five straight games. The real sore spot has been the team's three-point shooting. Over the last 12 games, the Blazers have shot below 32% from distance TEN times. Game 1 certainly didn't help those percentages as they were just 12 of 39. Another issue was free throw shooting, or rather lack of attempts. The starting backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum combined for just three FT attempts and the team had only.

In the regular season, New Orleans was the ONLY team in the league to both score and allow 110+ PPG. Scoring was NOT an issue for this team down the stretch as over the final five regular season games they averaged a whopping 121.2 PPG. Davis looked unstoppable in Game 1 and I see no reason why we should expect any different moving forward. Going all the way back to early November, there has been just ONE instance of the Pelicans being held under 100 pts in B2B games. So, the bottom line is that both teams are likely to see a scoring increase for Game 2 and that means Over is the call. In the regular season, New Orleans was the #2 Over team in the league, trailing only Milwaukee.  10* Over Pelicans/Blazers

8* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): We caught a really bad break w/ the Bucks in Game 1 as overtime once again proved to be "an underdog bettor's worst friend." In retrospect, I gladly would have taken the SU loss w/ the Bucks in regulation. Taking four points from the oddsmakers, they were down three when Khris Middleton hit a near halfcourt heave w/ no time remaining to force OT. While that miracle shot gave the Bucks "second life," it proved to be our undoing as they wound up losing by six points. Worst of all is that, down four and w/ little chance to win, they fouled w/ just a few seconds remaining. They now get a chance at revenge in Game 2 and my read on this series remains unchanged as Boston is no more healthy than they were going into Game 1. Take the points.

Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo combined for 66 pts in Game 1 while Malcolm Brogden scored all of his 16 pts after halftime. Still, it was not enough. But Antetokounmpo has certainly had Boston's number this season as he's averaged over 33 pts, 11 rebounds and 5 assists per game. He's also shooting over 50 percent from the field. Unfortunately for the Bucks, he fouled out in overtime. One has to wonder if the Bucks could have pulled off the upset had he not. What we do know is the Bucks beat the Celtics twice in the regular season. One of those was in a great spot (2nd game of the year after Boston had just lost Gordon Hayward), but the other was late in the year when Boston was w/o Kyrie Irving. They've done it before and can do it again.

Not only are the Celtics w/o Irving and Hayward, they don't have Marcus Smart or Daniel Theis either. This is what I said in my Game 1 analysis: "It's going to take one heck of a Brad Stevens coaching job to get this team out of the 1st round, let alone further. The Celtics lost four of their last six regular season contests w/ one of the wins coming in a meaningless regular season finale against the sorry Nets. The other win was against Chicago. This team only outscored its opponents by 3.6 PPG to begin with and that includes Irving playing the majority of those games. I'm just not sure who they lean on for crunch-time scoring." Nothing I wrote there has changed in 48 hours. Boston may have been #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season, but the Bucks shot better in Game 1 and I don't expect Terry Rozier to go off again in Game 2. 8* Milwaukee.

10* Under Heat/Sixers (8:05 ET): The infamous "Process" isn't just working, it's exceeding all expectations at this point as Philadelphia has now won 17 straight following its 130-103 demolition of the Heat in Game 1. Keep in mind the team is still w/o Joel Embiid. It's almost impossible to play against them at this point, though it should be pointed out they actually trailed the Heat at halftime on Saturday. But the second half was all Sixers as they outscored Miami 74-43. They wound up making 18 of 28 three-pointers, a ridiculous percentage that isn't likely to be duplicated anytime soon. In fact, it was a record number of three-pointers made in a playoff game for the franchise. The Game 2 total is the highest yet for any of this season's six head to head matchups and I'm taking the Under.

Needless to say, the Heat don't give up 130+ pts very often. That has happened only two times previously this season and in both instances, they've come back to win the next time out. While you couldn't tell by watching the second half of Game 1, this was actually a top ten team in defensive efficiency during the regular season (7th). They also play at a very slow pace typically (tied for 25th overall). Among playoff teams, only San Antonio averages a fewer number of possessions per game than does Miami. The keys to Game 1 were that they allowed Philly far too many field goal attempts (95!) and that second half in which the Sixers caught fire, hitting most of those three-pointers. As stated above, a repeat performance by Philly from behind the arc is highly unlikely here. 

Incredibly, Game 1 marked the third time in the last five games that the Sixers scored at least 130 points! Prior to that, it had happened only one time all season. Something the Sixers don't get nearly enough credit for is their defense. They entered the playoffs third in the league in defensive efficiency (trailing only Boston and Utah). Quietly, Miami actually made 12 three-pointers in Game 1, shooting at a 46.2% clip. Like Philadelphia, that number should come down here in Game 2. There were also a total of 60 free throws attempted in Game 1, a high number. The Sixers are holding visitors to just 42.4% shooting for the season, so a Miami team that isn't the most explosive offensive team to begin with, should struggle here offensively. With or without Embiid (he's listed as questionable), this game stays Under the total. 10* Under Heat/Sixers

10* Indiana (3:35 ET): The East is wide open and because they have LeBron James, Cleveland comes in as the betting favorite to win its fourth consecutive conference crown. I suppose its not difficult to understand why. Toronto (#1 seed) has an ugly postseason history. Boston (#2 seed) has a ton of injuries, including one to their best player, Kyrie Irving. Philadelphia (#3 seed) is both young and unproven. Yet, the Cavs are no "slam dunk" this postseason in my view. They're the fourth seed for many reasons, not the least of which is they were terrible defensively in the regular season, ranking 28th in efficiency (ahead of only Sacramento and Phoenix). They were also a disaster at the betting window, going a league worst 32-49-1 ATS, including 19-43 when favored! They did sweep these Pacers in the 1st round of LY's playoffs, but three of those games were decided by six pts or less and Indiana is improved now. This will be a hard fought Game 1 and likely series. 

The Pacers surprised everyone in going 48-34 SU in the regular season. Most did not think they were going to be a playoff team when they dealt Paul George away in the offseason, but led by Victor Oladipo, here they are. They actually finished w/ a better point differential than Cleveland in the regular season, so judging by that metric, this spread is way too high. Indiana also finished tied for 12th in defensive efficiency. They did fail to cover the regular season finale (meant nothing), but note they've only failed to cover in B2B games one time since the beginning of March. 

Including last year's playoff series, Cleveland is 11-5 SU vs. Indiana the L3 seasons, but just 4-11-1 ATS. So while they usually beat the Pacers, the games are often close. True to that form, here in Cleveland, Indiana is 1-7 SU, but 6-2 ATS. Indiana won three of the four regular season matchups this year, only losing the final one when the Cavs shot a ridiculous 56.1% from the floor (and still only won by seven). I really can't stress just how bad the Cavs are on the defensive end and it's going to prevent them from winning here in the playoffs by any kind of significant margin. Also, Indiana was 4-0 SU/ATS when playing w/ three or more days rest in the regular season and actually finished w/ a winning road record. 10* Indiana

8* Milwaukee (1:05 ET): This is not your "normal" matchup of a #2 and #7 seed in the first round of the NBA playoffs. Obviously, something must be "afoul" for me to endorse a Bucks team that was actually outscored during the regular season. If the last game of the regular season was any indication, then they clearly don't fear the Celtics as they put forth a rather shameful effort in losing 130-95 at Philadelphia. They entered that game w/ a chance to move up to sixth and possibly play either the Sixers or Cavs w/ a win. Perhaps Boston is the better matchup though. After all, the Celtics are going to be without Kyrie Irving for the entirety of the playoffs, no longer how long they last. I believe Boston is ripe for a Round 1/Game 1 upset. Take the points. 

These teams split four regular season matchups. In those four games, Bucks' superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo averaged 33.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 5.1 assists and shot 53.9% from the field. He also averaged 10.5 free throw attempts per game. I look him to be the difference maker in the series. Clearly, if Milwaukee is to advance, it will be him carrying the team. Perhaps most telling of those four regular season matchups was the last one when Milwaukee won 106-102 on April 3rd. Antetokounmpo scored 29pts against an Irving-less Celtics team, but most encouraging of all is that the team was able to go on 11-3 and 16-4 runs while he was on the bench. Milwaukee was generally overpriced on a game by game basis in the regular season, but I like them more as dogs. 

Not only is Boston w/o Kyrie, they also don't have Gordon Hayward, Marcus Smart and Daniel Theis. It's going to take one heck of a Brad Stevens coaching job to get this team out of the 1st round, let alone further. The Celtics lost four of their last six regular season contests w/ one of the wins coming in a meaningless regular season finale against the sorry Nets. The other win was against Chicago. This team only outscored its opponents by 3.6 PPG to begin with and that includes Irving playing the majority of those games. I'm just not sure who they lean on for crunch-time scoring. Sure, the C's were #1 in the league in defensive efficiency, but the Bucks shot 54.4% from the field in the last meeting. In the second half of the season, Boston went just 8-13 SU against teams that had a winning record. 8* Milwaukee

10* New Orleans (10:35 ET): Truthfully, I was hoping these teams would be matched up w/ Oklahoma City and Utah, whom I like more than both of these two. But, "the matchups are the matchups," and let's explore what we have here. Portland is the three seed in the Western Conference even though their YTD point differential ranked just sixth in the conference and their net efficiency rating is actually tied w/ New Orleans for seventh best. Now the Pelicans had some good fortune in earning the six seed as well as they were 7-3 SU in games decided by three points or less, not to mention a somewhat preposterous 7-2 SU in overtime games (obviously some overlap there). At the end of the day, I'm just not as high on Portland as others seem to be and see them as a clear fade (when favored) here in the postseason. Take the points. 

New Orleans lost Boogie Cousins during the regular season, but they still have Anthony Davis and he alone is good enough to carry the team to a series win here. Davis was second in the league in scoring (28.1 PPG), fifth in rebounding (11.1 per game) and 1st in PER. Because of injury, he played in only two full games vs. Portland during the regular season. He dominated, scoring 36 pts both times and I don't see either of Terry Stotts' options - Jusuf Nurkic or Al-Farouq Aminu - being able to stop him here. Remember, the Blazers are down a starter as well for Game 1 as forward Maurice Harkless is still out after knee surgery. As hot as the Blazers were down the stretch, the Pelicans have gone 20-8 straight up their last 28 games overall and they were a surprisingly good road team as well, going 24-17 SU. They were even better at the pay window, going 26-15 ATS. 

None of the four regular season matchups were decided by more than 10 pts w/ the last two each decided by just four points. When these teams met roughly three weeks ago in the Big East, the Pelicans lost only 107-103 despite missing 20 of 24 three-point attempts. That's not likely to happen again as even on the road, they shoot 37.2% from distance. This is an underdog that can score (111.7 PPG) making it difficult to lay points against them and in all due respect to Damian Lillard, the Pelicans will have the best player on the floor. Over its final regular season games, New Orleans averaged a whopping 121.2 PPG while Portland averaged just 98.4 PPG. In particular, the Blazers' three-point shooting was bad down the stretch. In fact, over the last 15 games, they are shooting less than 25% from behind the arc in the 4th quarter. That could come back to haunt them here as the Pelicans should easily stay within the number and possibly pull the outright upset. 10* New Orleans

8* Over Wizards/Raptors (5:35 ET): While they're the top seed in the Eastern Conference, Toronto probably isn't feeling too good about itself heading into the playoffs as they went just 7-6 SU their final 13 regular season games and were far worse at the pay window. Still, they'd built up enough of a lead that holding onto the top spot was not a problem (Boston injuries certainly helped) and their dominance at home during the regular season has to at least have them feeling good. No team in the league outscored its opponents by larger margin at home than did the Raptors (+10.4 PPG), who averaged an impressive 112.2 PPG here. They were third in the league in offensive efficiency (tops in the East) and only Houston and Golden State averaged more points per game. 

Washington is not exactly a defensive stalwart as they allow over 106 PPG. With John Wall missing significant time, the Wizards slid all the way down to the 8th spot, drawing this tough 1st round matchup. If there is any shred of hope here, it comes in the form of the fact Toronto has been just atrocious in Game 1's throughout their franchise history. They've lost 10 straight Game 1's going all the way back to to the 2001 Eastern Conference Semifinals. They've also lost nine straight playoff openers. But the Wizards are a big underdog here for a reason as they have dropped five of six and are just 7-14 their L21 games overall. They do have Wall back, so they're a better team now than they were for most of that stretch. 

These teams met four times in the regular season, splitting the quartet of games. Three of the four went Under as have each of the last five meetings here North of the Border. But I look for a far different result here in Game 1 of this best of seven series. Today's total is lower than three of those four regular season meetings and these are two teams that shoot the ball well (both above 46.7% from the field), including from three-point range. The Raptors actually held two of their last five opponents below 80 pts, which is highly irregular as for the year they're giving up 103.9 PPG. As mentioned before, Washington gives up even more. DeMar DeRozan had a career year and I can see him having a big game in this spot. One key for the Wiz is that they shot 37.5% or better from three-point range in three of the games against the Raptors in the regular season. 8* Over Wizards/Raptors

8* Utah (10:35 ET): This game will decide the third seed in the Western Conference. Utah and Portland come into this regular season finale tied at 48-33. Amazingly, only two games separate third from ninth in the West. So it remains to be seen how far the loser could drop. The bottom line though is I'm "all about" taking the points w/ a red-hot Jazz team (won 6 straight) getting points. Yes, the game is in Portland, but Utah grades out as the better team in just about every way (whether you're talking net efficiency or straight point differential), so taking the points seems like a luxury. The Jazz are one of only two teams allowing fewer than 100 PPG for the season. 

Utah has also "discovered" an offense during the current win streak, averaging 117.2 points the L5 games. Four of those victories have come by double digits, including a 119-79 demolition of Golden State last night. You can talk about how the Warriors didn't have Steph Curry, but Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green all played. It was the Dubs' worst loss (40 pts) of the Steve Kerr era as the Jazz held them to 35 percent shooting and led the entire way! I'm not even concerned w/ this being the second game of a back to back either as no Jazz player logged more than 28 minutes last night! Just how good has this team been, you ask? They have gone 29-5 SU the L34 games, which is tied w/ the Rockets for the best record in the league during that time.

Meanwhile, Portland has been struggling of late. They've lost four in a row and were held to 82 pts on 33 percent shooting in their last game, at Denver. Now all four losses came on the road, but it goes w/o saying which team has the "momentum" coming into this game. I've said multiple times that the Blazers weren't necessarily as good as their record. Going by both net efficiency and point differential, they are the sixth best team in the West. The offensive struggles go beyond just the Denver game and this is not the opponent where those struggles are likely to be corrected. Since their 13-game win streak ended, the Blazers have gone just 4-7 SU overall. 8* Utah

10* Under Sixers/Hawks (7:35 ET): The famed "process" in Philadelphia has succeeded beyond anyone's wildest imagination this season as the 76ers will finish either third or fourth in the Eastern Conference standings, depending on the results of the next two days. The team has won a remarkable 14 straight games and leads Cleveland by one-half game w/ two to play themselves and the Cavs having only one more game left on the schedule. Atlanta is not going to the playoffs as they have the worst overall record in the Eastern Conference (tied w/ Orlando). This game looks like a mismatch on paper, but the line is also inflated. So to the total we go.

Over its last five games, Philly has averaged over 119 PPG. They are shooting 51% from the field during that time. However, the last game was low-scoring as they beat Dallas 109-97 and did not cover as 13-pt chalk. It was the second straight game they did not cover after covering nine in a row. A win tonight would set a new franchise record. Keep in mind that they are w/o Joel Embiid. But its a deep team that has seven double digit scorers. Still, it will be difficult for them alone to carry this game Over the total. For instance, the last meeting w/ the Hawks was a 101-91 final in their favor. 

Atlanta is off a rare win here as they beat injury-plagued Boston 112-106 on Sunday. It was actually their second straight win as they also won at Washington on Friday. They were 10.5 and 9.5 point underdogs, respectively, in those two games. Note that they had failed to top 100 points in any of their four games prior to those two upsets. The Hawks are 12-4 Under when coming off a SU win as a dog and also 4-1 Under in April. The average number of points each team scores and allows combined does not exceed the O/U line here. 10* Under Sixers/Hawks

10* Under Pelicans/Clippers (10:35 ET): The Clippers are out of the playoff race while the Pelicans are one of five teams in the West fighting for the final four playoff spots and that quintet is separated by all of two games. Hence the line here where New Orleans is a significant road favorite as they are the team that "has to win." They are currently fifth in the pecking order in the West, but tied w/ both San Antonio and Oklahoma City. So a loss here could result in them being as low as seventh by the end of the night. I have zero interest in laying the inflated number here, but I do like the total as the number seems too high despite the way most Pelicans games go.

New Orleans allows and scores more than 110 points per game. They are the ONLY team in the league that can claim that. They've also topped 120 pts in three consecutive games. That said, the average number of total points scored in their games does not exceed the total for tonight. Two nights ago vs. Golden State, they shot a blistering 56.3% from the floor. Hard to imagine them approaching that number here tonight even though the Clippers just allowed 134 pts in their last game. They allowed the Nuggets to shoot 62.4% from the floor, a number that will without question come down here. 

We've established that there's valid reasoning for this total being so high. New Orleans has gone Over in three straight and the Over is 47-33 in all games this season. Denver has gone Over in four straight. But the recent numbers also simply cannot be maintained. It is curious that this total is actually lower than it was last month when the teams met. Expect this one to stay Under the total. 10* Under Pelicans/Clippers

8* Over Pistons/Grizzlies (3:35 ET): Detroit has been officially eliminated from playoff contention as we now know the eight teams that will be in the postseason from the Eastern Conference (unlike the Western Conf where only three spots are clinched). With the relatively "meaningless" nature of this contest, I expect little in the way of defensive intensity and thus Over seems like a logical call on a low total. Memphis has of course been long out of contention as they've hit a nadir that is as low as any team has experienced all season. They just lost at home to Sacramento to fall to 3-27 SU the last 30 games. The Friday game was quite low scoring and while the Grizz are dead last in the league in scoring, I see this one sneaking Over the number. 

Memphis has actually failed to score 100 pts in four consecutive games, all losses. Neither they nor Sacramento shot terribly in Friday's 94-93 game, so that final score is a bit head scratching. Also consider that it was just 68-63 going into the fourth quarter. A big thing was each team shooting only 25% from three-point range and there also weren't a ton of free throws attempted in the game. One positive here for Memphis is that Detroit is not particularly adept at defending the three-point line, particularly on the road where opponents are shooting at over a 37% clip. Overall, the Pistons are not a good defensive team, though recent opponents have happened to shoot pretty poorly. 

Detroit has averaged over 109 points its last five games and shoots better than 37 percent itself from three-point range for the season. So that's the bad news for Memphis. Note Detroit's 113-106 win over Dallas on Friday did go to overtime. (Though the Over was a winner at the end of regulation). The Pistons shot 50% against Dallas. Note that in the first meeting, the game did sneak Over a similar total w/ the Pistons winning 104-102. Looking at both teams' season averages, the total number of points scored and allowed exceed this total. 8* Over Pistons/Grizzlies

10* Philadelpha (7:05 ET): The 76ers are the hottest team in the league right now, having won 12 in a row and they've covered the spread in the last 10 wins! Nine of those 10 wins have been by double digits. Cleveland comes in having won five straight and 10 of its last 11 after pulling the proverbial "rabbit out of the hat" last night against Washington. Down 17 w/ just over seven minutes remaining, the Cavs prevailed 119-115 behind LeBron James' 33 points. The winner of this game will be in third place, at least for the time being, in what is all of a sudden a VERY wide open Eastern Conference (w/ Kyrie Irving done for the year in Boston and Toronto slumping). By the numbers, Philly has been a better team this season than Cleveland, so I'll lay the pts even w/o Embiid. 

Only three teams - Houston, Golden State and Toronto - have outscored opponents by a wider margin this year than has Philadelphia. That's pretty incredible. Again, they won nine straight by double digits before beating Detroit "only" 115-108 and note they led that game by 17 entering the fourth quarter. They have scored 115 or more in eight of the last nine games and should easily be able to take advantage of a Cleveland defense that is 28th in defensive efficiency - ahead of only Sacramento and Phoenix. The Sixers beat the Cavs, in Cleveland, 108-97 back on March 1st, snapping a long head to head losing streak. 

Philly has been one of the best teams to bet on this year, especially at home where they are 26-11 ATS. Meanwhile, Cleveland has largely been a disaster at the pay window, going a league-worst 30-48-1 ATS. They have been a lot better of late and have turned a profit as an underdog. But, there's no underestimating the effect of having to comeback last night and then playing on the road. Also, while the Cavs are 28th in defensive efficiency, the Sixers are 3rd. Cleveland has the worst ATS record in the league; Philly has the 2nd best ATS record. The Cavs may be a half game up in the standings, but they have the point differential of a 42-win team, not a 49-win one. Meanwhile, the Sixers have the point differential of a 51-win team. 10* Philadelphia

10* Minnesota (10:35 ET): This is a huge game in the Western Conference playoff picture and can go a long way in determining how the final few spots shake out. The way things stand now is that three teams - Houston, Golden State and Portland - have all clinched. That is also almost 100% likely to be the order of the top three seeds as well. (Houston has clinched #1, GSW clinched #2, Portland all but has clinched #3). After that, seven teams are fighting for five spots and separated by just three games. Both these two are in "the thick of it," yet trending in opposite directions of late. Minnesota, who has been as high as third in the standings, badly misses Jimmy Butler (still out) and has dropped 8 of 14. That may not sound like a terrible losing streak, but the T'wolves have fallen into seventh and are just one game ahead of ninth place Denver, who has won three in a row. 

The Nuggets obviously own a strong homecourt advantage as their record at the Pepsi Center is 29-10 SU. If they don't end up making the playoffs, that fate could largely be pinned on a poor 14-25 SU road record, which is actually not the worst among the playoff contenders, but pretty close. Recently, Denver has experienced some good fortune, such as B2B overtime wins over Oklahoma City and Milwaukee, then beating Indiana by only three as well. Those three wins have been by a total of seven points, so laying a number w/ them doesn't sound too prudent right now. Note that Minnesota has had their number going back to last season as the T'wolves have won the last four head to head meetings. Now they haven't met since right after X-Mas (they again meet, at Minnesota, in the regular season finale), but this division rivalry is pretty clearly going to have a huge bearing on the playoff race. 

I fully expect Minnesota to come out motivated here after they got drubbed, at home, by Utah on Sunday. The final score there was 121-97, in favor of the Jazz, who shot a ridiculous 60 percent from the floor and received 50 pts from the bench. As shaky as Minny has been defensively at time this season, I just don't see them being anywhere close to that poor here tonight. While still w/o Butler, remember Denver doesn't have starting PG Gary Harris, Jr either, nor are they staunch defensively. The Nuggets come in giving up an average of 108.9 PPG, which is more than the T'wolves allow.  Note the rest Minnesota comes into this game with (three full days!). Surprisingly, they are 0-5 ATS when that rested this season, but also note Denver is just 1-5 SU and ATS this year when on a win streak of three or more games. So it's not a good spot for the home team, especially laying points in an important matchup. 10* Minnesota

10* Over Mavs/Magic (7:05 ET): Dallas rewarded me last night by beating Portland outright, 115-109, as 8.5-pt dogs. It was their highest scoring effort in some time as you'd have to go all the way back to March 16th to find the last time they scored 115 pts in a game. Not only that, but they'd been held under 100 in four of the five games previous to last night. While a team that's simply "playing out the string" at this point, note the Mavericks are far better than their record shows. I've made this point numerous times this year as their YTD point differential is indicative of a 31-win team, not a 24-win one (current record is 24-53). They are much closer in point differential to the 33-43 Lakers then they are to any of the other three "bottom-feeders" in the Western Conference. We're talking a per game point differential of only -2.5. 

Orlando also won last night, albeit in far more commanding (and low-scoring!) fashion. They clobbered the Knicks 97-73 thanks to a big second half where they held NY to only 28 points total! Incredibly, the Knicks missed 14 of their last 17 shots from the field, taking what was only a five-point game and transforming it into a total beatdown. The victory was among the Magic's most lopsided all season and in fact it was their first by double digits in nearly two months. But this is NOT a team to be trusted coming off a SU win (7-15 SU/6-15-1 ATS this season in that role) nor as anything resembling home chalk (1-10-1 ATS when favored at home this season). 

Thus, my kneejerk reaction is to take the Mavs in this spot, but on the road and off a win, isn't exactly the most ideal spot for them either. It's actually the total that caught my eye here as both teams have been involved in a string of low-scoring efforts recently. That isn't likely to continue and in the case of the Mavs, we saw a far more high scoring affair just last night. It's not as if either of these sides are stingy defensively as Dallas gives up 106.6 PPG on the road while Orlando is giving up 108.2 PPG for the season. The Magic's last three games have shockingly seen neither they nor the opponent score 100 pts. That's also happened five times in their last seven games overall! That's something that's very rare in today's NBA and it's happened despite the Magic making at least 10 three-pointers in five of the last six games! Given the fact that neither team has anything to play for here, expect a more wide-open game. Last night was the fewest points allowed by the Magic in a game since 2012, so defensively they'll regress here. When these teams met in January, the O/U line was significantly higher (Mavs won 114-99), so there's some value here as well. 10* Over Mavs/Magic

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): The Mavericks have really been shooting themselves in the foot lately. Whether intentional (tanking?) or not, the fact that their straight up record over the last nine games is 1-8 is highly misleading. None of those losses have been by more than 11 points and in almost every loss, they've led for a significant portion of the game. Sunday at Cleveland was no exception. As 11-pt underdogs, they led outright going into the fourth quarter. But from that point on, they either a) quit or b) simply forgot how to play basketball. They scored only 10 pts over the final 12 minutes and ended up losing by 11, a push for me and anyone else that was on them. I've said it before and will say it again here. This team has played far better than its record indicates. 

Despite being 23-54 SU, the Mavs have only been outscored by an average of 2.6 points per game. Based on their point differential, you'd "expect" them to have 30 wins on the year. To put these numbers in some perspective, the team right above Dallas in the Western Conference standings (Sacramento) is being outscored by 7.3 points per game this year. The Mavs' YTD point differential is much closer to the 33-43 Lakers than it is to any of the other three bottom-feeders in the West. They have little (nothing) to play for at this point, but at least they're at home tonight. Their record here is 14-25 SU, but they've actually outscored their opponents! Tonight is the team's second to last home game of the year, the final one not being until the regular season finale (vs. Phoenix). Also, the Mavs' ATS record when coming off a double digit loss is 13-4 this season. 

Portland is the opponent tonight and this is obviously a hot team. Since the All-Star Break, they've lost only three times (16-3 overall). Sunday saw them exact some revenge for one of those losses, to Memphis of all teams, as they won 113-98 as 14.5-pt home chalk. But the team's remaining schedule is going to be a bit of a challenge. After this, it's all playoff contenders w/ three of the four games taking place on the road. They are currently third in the West, but have the sixth best net efficiency rating and sixth best point differential. So there's been some overachieving to get to this point. Something to note is that they are shooting a league worst 27.9 percent from three-point range the L6 games. On the road, they've been not nearly as good this year. I know it seems as if Dallas is tanking, but taking the points is the way to go in this Tuesday night matchup. 10* Dallas