10* Over Raptors/Lakers (10:35 ET):  This total looks low to me. Way too low.  Kobe Bryant has been upgraded to probable for the Lakers tonight, which is actually now a concern, as he has been the league's worst jump shooter to this point (sorry, Kobe fans, but look it up).  Still, Kobe SHOULD see his shooting numbers start to improve (at least a little bit) moving forward and the team can probably do better than 99.4 points per game. They'd gone Under six straight games before giving up 120 pts to Phoenix earlier this week and now in comes to Toronto, who prior to its last game had both scored and allowed 100+ four of its previous five games.  Take the Over.

The Raptors had been averaging 107.8 PPG over a five-game span before running into defensive-minded Utah Wednesday night.  They lost 93-89, but covered (by half a point!) for me. The good news is that Toronto has been held below 100 pts B2B games only once this season.  The even better news is that they are going up against a Lakers team that is allowing 105.5 PPG. Of course, it was Toronto's own lack of defense that cost them Wednesday against the Jazz. They gave up 34 points in the fourth quarter on 61.1 percent shooting. Their last three opponents have collectively shot 51.3 percent against them. Offensively, I can see some improvement in the cards tonight, but it must begin with a good start. No team in the league is averaging fewer points in the 1st quarter than are the Raptors (21.8). 

If you think Toronto's fourth quarter defense was bad the last time we saw them, well then I'll "raise you" the Lakers, who gave up 40 points over the final 12 minutes against Phoenix. With Bryant out of the lineup, the team actually shot better, much better in fact, a season-best 48.1 percent w/ six players scoring 10 or more points. This team, largely because of Bryant, is last in the league in overall field goal percentage. I'm really hoping that Bryant's return doesn't have the negative effect it's capable of having, but the key is Toronto's 8th ranked offensive efficiency going up against the Lakers' 27th ranked defensive efficiency anyway. Toronto is 7-1 Over the past three seasons as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points while the Lakers are 7-3 Over the previous two seasons when playing w/ 3+ days rest. 10* Over Raptors/Lakers

8* Boston (7:35 ET): This is another game where the spread is far too low despite the favorite's lack of history in this price range. All six of the Celtics' victories this season have been by at least 13 points and that's a margin I'm looking at for tonight's home game w/ lowly Brooklyn. Boston had a 3-game SU/ATS win streak snapped on Wednesday, losing 106-102 to Dallas, a game which they actually led by as many as 18 in the first half. A disastrous fourth quarter (outscored 36-24) should leave a bitter taste in the players' mouths and I expect a bounce back here against a Nets side that may have covered five in a row, but only has two SU wins to their credit all season.  Lay the points.

This is the front end of a home and home between the two Atlantic Division rivals. Last year, the road team took three of four meetings, but the lone home win came from the Celtics by 16 points.  Later in the season, they would win at Brooklyn by eight and 19 points. The Nets' only two wins this year came at the expense of Houston, who already fired its coach, and Atlanta (by two points). They have routinely been blown out, losing four times by double digits, and this will be their sixth time playing out on the road in the L7 games. Only three teams in the entire league - Golden State, San Antonio and Cleveland can claim a better YTD point differential than these Celtics.

As discussed in the Charlotte writeup, the Nets are off a five-point loss on Wednesday. That came on the heels of just their second win of the season, the previous night.  I feel they're still getting too much credit for taking Golden State into overtime on Sunday and while they're on a 5-0 ATS run (all as dogs) coming into tonight, remember that they opened the season 1-6 at the betting window. Turnovers could be a big deciding factor tonight as the Celtics, who play at one of the league's fastest paces, average 23.6 PPG off turnovers and 14.4 PPG on the fast break. Defensively, they're also much better than Brooklyn, giving up nearly 10 PPG fewer per 100 possessions.  8* Boston

8* Charlotte (7:05 ET):  This might seem like a LOT of points to lay w/ the Hornets, but of course the opponent is Philadelphia, who is winless and being outscored by a frightening 14.0 PPG. Two nights ago, the Sixers were destroyed on their own floor, 112-85 by Indiana. Right now, the difference between the Hornets and Pacers is fairly negligible. So even though, they only beat Brooklyn by five on Wednesday, I expect the home team to take care of business in this one. The Hornets are 4-1 SU in Charlotte so far, scoring 107 points per game, and overall they are actually sixth in the league in offensive efficiency, trailing only some of the league's real "heavyweights."  Philly is last in that department, by a considerable margin. Lay the points.

One of the reasons that the Hornets have been so efficient on offense is that they don't turn the ball over much. They give it up, on average, only 11 times per game and that's almost two per game less than every other team! Who turns the ball over the most in the league? Why, Philadelphia, of course!  The Sixers offensive efficiency has become so bad that they now average seven points less per 100 possessions than the second worst team in the league (Brooklyn).  That gap is more sizable than the difference between the #7 and #29 teams! Philly has turned the ball over a total of 58 times the last two games, including 31 on Wednesday, a league-high for any game this season. Over half of the Sixers' losses have come by 17 pts or greater and that's the kind of margin my own personal power ratings are suggesting for tonight. 

Charlotte is in the midst of a seven-game home stand that will take them through the rest of the month. They should be able to pad their record in the first several games before visits from both Cleveland and Golden State later on.  Defense will need to be better tonight than it's been recently as the Hornets have allowed 100+ in three of the last four games.  But, as already discussed, Philaelphia is the worst offensive team in the league right now. They have not scored more than 86 pts in any of their L4 games and been held below 90 in five of the last six. Look for the Hornets to roll.  8* Charlotte

8* East Tennessee State (7:00 ET):  I'm going to step out in front of the Villanova train yet again here as a 48-20 ATS mark the last two-plus seasons certainly is due to regress back to the mean, right? Last season alone, the Wildcats went 25-10 at the betting window and thus far in 2015, they haven't been messing around w/ wins over Farleigh Dickinson (non-lined game) and Nebraska coming by 37 and 24 points, respectively,  I went against them Tuesday vs. the Cornhuskers and after a great start (for me), it wasn't very pleasant to watch. A seven-point deficit quickly turned into a double-digit lead by halftime for the Wildcats, thanks to a 22-0 run. Are you kidding? I still think that the linesmakers catch up w/ Jay Wright's team though.  Take the points. 

Bad shooting by opponents has really helped 'Nova in the first two games, not that they needed it. But it should be pointed out that FDU and Nebraska were both ice cold from the field for the most part, shooting 27% and 37.7%, respectively. Enter East Tennessee State, a team that has topped 100 pts in each of its first two games, albeit against far weaker competition than they'll face here.  But still, a team that can put the ball in the hoop that much is certainly worthy of a shot, taking this many points. The Buccaneers are off a 103-90 win over Wisconsin-Green Bay (game was at 6 AM ET), very much a "real" opponent (as opposed to Division III Averett, whom they blew out in the season opener), as the Phoenix had just taken Stanford to OT in its first game.  So, don't discount the underdog here. They won't be intimidated.

ETSU may not be known nationally, but I think they could be a real surprise for first year HC Steve Forbes thanks to a number of key transfers. The Buccaneers are not the favorites to win the Southern Conference (Chattanooga is), but they're certainly a contender.  Five players scored in double figures Tuesday morning and the team has been above 50 percent shooting in both games. This will be Villanova's toughest test to date. The Wildcats benefited greatly from turnovers against Nebraska w/ 22 of them being converted into 33 points. But E Tennessee St has just 22 TO's in two games.  They also are shooting 85% from the free throw line while leading the nation in total # of attempts! 8* East Tennessee State

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET):  While LeBron James may still be having "nightmares" over what happened in June against the Golden State, November can't exactly have him and the Cavaliers sleeping well either as they've gone a bankroll busting 0-8 against the spread this month, including a couple of outright losses, one to Detroit on Tuesday and the other to Milwaukee on Saturday. They'll get a chance to avenge the latter tonight, and after publicly being called out by James, the team should be more than ready. It was a double overtime loss to the Bucks on Saturday where the Cavs shot only 40.7 percent from the field.  Being back at home, where they're unbeaten, LeBron and company should gain revenge. Lay the points.

It was a disastrous finish to the game Tuesday for Cleveland as they blew a lead they'd held for much of the game, late. They led by eight with just over seven minutes to go, but then went incredibly cold, scoring just one more basket (a James' layup w/ 15 seconds remaining) the rest of the way. Intentionally fouling the Pistons' Andre Drummond backfired as the 40 percent FT shooter made four of five from the line down the stretch.  The Cavs' own FT woes have really hurt them this season as they're shooting just 68.7 percent from the charity stripe, which is downright unforgivable for a supposed title contender. The good news is that the FT percentage goes up to a more respectable 74.4 percent here at home. The fact that opposing teams have shot 77.2 percent from the line hasn't helped the Cavaliers either.

Milwaukee had started to show signs of a turnaround, but then got blasted Tuesday night in Washington, losing 115-86 to the Wizards. It was the third time this season that the Bucks allowed that many points, though two of those have come against the Wiz. Still though, Cleveland is more than capable of putting up a big point total here tonight. It's highly likely that the players not named "LeBron" or "Kevin Love" will do better than the collective 34.8 percent shooting they put forth in the first meeting w/ Milwaukee. This Bucks team has lost four times by 16 or more points already this season.  10* Cleveland

10* Rutgers (7:00 ET): I wouldn't be too confident laying points w/ St. Johns in their first real test under 1st year HC Chris Mullin (yes, the alum & former NBA great). It has been somewhat of a tumultuous last month for the Red Storm as a number of players that were expected to be key contributors this season have been ruled ineligible. The most notable is Marcus LoVett, a much hyped freshman that many thought would quickly evolve into the team's best player.  Two other players, Felix Balamou (a senior) and Kassoum Yakwe (another freshman), also aren't going to be playing. Suffice to say, it remains to be seen just how good of a head coach Mullin can be (has never previously served in such a capacity) and with a roster made up almost entirely of new faces (90 percent of last year's scoring gone!), I think the immediate future looks rather grim.

The Johnnies' are 2-0 SU, but wins over Wagner and MD-Baltimore County certainly shouldn't impress anyone, especially considering it was a three-point game vs. Wagner in the final 90 seconds!  Also, the Red Storm lost an exhibition game - to a Division II school (St. Thomas Aquinas) - by 32 points! Things looked a little better on Monday against MD-Baltimore County, but that too was a three-point game in the second half.  In the two regular seasons games so far, St. John's has turned the ball over on a whopping 23% of its total possessions. Depth is a major concern in both the front and back courts. So far, the Red Storm have been lucky in that neither of their first two opponents could hit water from a boat, but a Rutgers squad that's shooting 46.6% from the floor can. 

While St. John's prized recruit is being forced to watch games from the bench, the first real top recruit of the Eddie Jordan era at Rutgers was a key contributor in the Scarlet Knights' 82-70 win over Howard on Sunday. Corey Sanders led the way w/ 15 points in his debut after being forced to sit out the opener due to his own eligibility issue.  This is another young team, but at least it's one now filled w/ Jordan's recruits as opposed to those of his predecessor Mike Rice. Three-point shooting has been the major issue for the Scarlet Knights thus far, but they're getting open looks and I expect some of those shots to start going down. Take the points here.  10* Rutgers

8* Toronto (9:05 ET):  Again, it's a team playing w/o rest being undervalued by the linesmakers. The Raptors refused to "play ball" w/ me last night, staying inside the number at Golden State.  For the record, Toronto was trailing by 16 at halftime. But they did manage to trim the deficit all the way down to a single point in the fourth quarter. While that result may not have been to my liking, it won't stop me from turning around and backing the Raptors as underdogs tonight as they visit a Utah team coming off a four-game East Coast swing. The Jazz split the four games straight up (3-1 ATS), last winning for me, 97-96 (as three-point pups) in Atlanta Sunday evening.  While 7-3 ATS and one of the top defensive teams in the league, I'm not convinced that they should be favored by this many against a team the caliber of Toronto. Take the points.

This will only be Utah's third home game of the season, so that does speak well to the already impressive looking start to the season. But it comes in a tough spot as they will be hitting the road again Friday for a tilt w/ the Dallas Mavericks.  I'm not sure this non-conference matchup will hold their attention quite as much.  This is also only the third time the Jazz have been asked to lay more than three points at the betting window. The previous two instances came against league-worst Philadelphia (covered) and Portland, who beat them outright here in Salt Lake City. The issue right now w/ Utah being favored is that they don't score a ton of points. Currently, they are averaging only 95.5 per game.  There's also the issue of two starters, Rodney Hood & Rudy Gobert, battling injuries.

The Raptors have won and covered all four meetings vs. the Jazz the past two seasons and done so in dominating fashion, winning by an average margin of 19 points per contest.   They were favored last year here in Utah and won by 19.  They too can play some defense, having held six of their first seven opponents under triple digits.  Unfortunately, they've allowed 100+ in four of their last five, but playing Golden State will do that to you.  The other occasions were far less excusable, but I like the fact this team is 2-0 SU/ATS in the second night of back to backs this season.  8* Toronto

8* New Mexico (9:00 ET):  First off, best wishes go to Lobos' reserve forward Devon Williams, who collapsed in the team's 83-74 win at in-state rival New Mexico State on Sunday. Williams suffered what is being called a cervical spinal bruise and obviously is out of the lineup for the near future, but by all accounts will be fine. Undoubtedly, playing for their injured teammate tonight, I really like UNM to roll against Loyola-IL, who is forced to make the cross-country trip as part of the now-annual Mountain West vs. Missouri Valley challenge, an event you may or may not be aware of.  The MWC has dominated previously (24-15 SU) and I expect the Lobos to keep that trend alive tonight in "The Pit," which has always been a difficult place for the visitor to win.

New Mexico is "just" 24-7 SU on its home floor since the start of the 2013-14 season, including an 86-57 win over Texas Southern in this year's opener. They were able to put up that many points (admittedly against an overmatched foe) despite missing 12 of 17 three-pointers.  They weren't any more efficient from behind the arc against New Mexico State, yet still scored 80+ in that one as well. Just imagine how many they would have scored had they been better from distance! I like what I've seen from the Lobos' starting backcourt - Cullen Neal and Elijah Brown - thus far.  The latter scored 31 pts Sunday night and as a duo, they're averaging 43.5 points per game. Look out for big man Sam Longwood, despite a slow start to the season, as well. 

New Mexico has yet to lose to a Missouri Valley team in the history of this event.  Loyola is a relative newcomer to the MVC, having joined back in 2013 after spending time in the Horizon League.  They were somewhat of a pointspread juggernaut last season, covering 67 percent of their games, including an incredible 11-2 ATS mark on the road and winning the CBI Tournament.  However, I don't see them faring too well in Albuquerque where almost all of those seven UNM home losses I spoke of earlier occurred during last year's very disappointing finish to conference play. Little can be derived from the Ramblers' first two games of the season due to the poor quality of competition, but they did fail to cover at home against UTSA.  8* New Mexico

8* Denver (8:35 ET): For years, I've pointed to the fact that teams playing in the second night of a back to back are generally undervalued and that's what we have here as the Nuggets, fresh off a win last night, take the court in San Antonio.  As a generous six-point dog, Denver downed New Orleans on Tuesday, 115-98 as the struggling Pelicans lost Anthony Davis to an injury in the first quarter.  It would be easy to simply "write off" the Nuggets victory as a byproduct of that injury, but they were actually outplaying the Pelicans when Davis was on the floor. That was Denver's fourth win in its last five games, surprising, considering where most though this team would be at the start of the year. I've got no problem grabbing the big number here though.

San Antonio, as expected, is one of the league's two best teams (only Golden State rated higher).  Their only loss since Opening Night (at full-strength Oklahoma City) came on a buzzer-beater at Washington.  Since then, they've won five straight, all by nine or more points.  In four home games this season, they're holding the opposition to an average of just 83 points per game!  That said, they just got done playing Portland and Philadelphia, two of the worst teams in the entire league.  Denver isn't likely to become a playoff team "overnight," but they should at least give the Spurs a better fight than past opponents have.  Also, the Spurs' offense has struggled shooting the ball those L2 games, connecting on only 40.8 percent of their attempts from the field.

The Nuggets lost all four meetings to the Spurs last season and are 0-7 SU against them the past two seasons. But double digits is a lot to lay in today's NBA and Denver has gone 5-3 ATS when taking 12.5 or more points since the start of last season.  Earlier this season, they covered at Golden State.  This will be the fourth time so far that the Spurs have been asked to lay 12 or more pts and while they've gone 2-1 ATS, those previous three instances were all against teams weaker than the Nuggets.  San Antonio is just 15-16 ATS after allowing 85 pts or less in its previous game.  8* Denver

10* Atlanta (8:05 ET):  What am I missing here?  Why is this line so low?  You're telling me that the Hawks are now perceived to be basically even w/ the Kings on a neutral floor?  That's what this line is saying.  My own personal power ratings have Atlanta favored by significantly more, even w/o starters Jeff Teague and Kent Bazemore in the lineup.  Granted, the Hawks aren't exactly "flying high" right now (three-game losing streak), but they should certainly be hungry after suffering an embarrassing defeat last night in Brooklyn (5th straight ATS loss). They've won 14 straight over Sacramento (league's longest active head to head win streak!) while covering the last four and the result should be no different here. Lay the points.

About a week ago, the Kings held one of those "players-only" meetings as they seemed to be on the verge of implosion w/ star player DeMarcus Cousins and HC George Karl butting heads. The aftermath of that meeting has seen the team win three straight, so some of the more foolish "talking heads" will probably want to label this as some sort of "turnaround."  I don't; rather it just points to the fact the team had been underachieving previously. Also, all three wins came at home where Sacramento typically plays a lot better. This team is just 22-62 SU on the road the last 2+ seasons and this year finds itself allowing a frightening 116 PPG away from home.  Granted, that's just two games, but it also speaks volumes that the Kings' overall record isn't better considering they've played 9 of 11 games at home. The last two were both close calls as well. Sunday night, they trailed Toronto heading into the fourth quarter. Coming off a SU win as a dog, the Kings are a woeful 9-21 ATS.

Atlanta has been struggling its last five games, but the last two have been losses by a combined three points. Last night in Brooklyn, they held the biggest lead of the game (8 pts), but managed to lose a back and forth affair due to a season-high 20 turnovers. You can obviously point to the absence of Teague for that happening, but really it's just overall carelessness, something I expect to be corrected here. Playing back to back nights hasn't bothered the Hawks so far this season as they've gone 3-0 SU in that situation. 10* Atlanta

10* Golden State (10:35 ET):  The Warriors laying single digits at home?  Thank you linesmakers! Honestly, unless they're playing San Antonio, there isn't a single team (maybe Cleveland?) that the defending champs shouldn't be laying at least 10 to here at Oracle Arena. Toronto, after starting the season a perfect 5-0 straight up/against the spread, has just two wins in its last six games and those came at the expense of two teams (New Orleans, Philadelphia) that are a combined 1-20 SU right now.  They just lost outright in Sacramento Sunday night, an ominous sign as they embark on a five-game West Coast swing. Consider that last year the Dubs beat the Raptors twice by 20+ points.  Lay the number.

As you know, Golden State is off to a perfect 11-0 start.  They have failed to cover the spread only four times, three of which came as favorites of -14 or higher. The other was a game vs. the rival Clippers.  Strangely, their closest call of the season came last time out, against Brooklyn of all teams.  Despite shooting only 41.9 percent from the field, the Nets somehow took the Warriors into overtime before eventually losing 107-99.  Really, it all boiled down to Brooklyn jumping out to a 36-21 lead after one quarter.  But as simple math will tell you, the Warriors outscored the Nets by 23 the rest of the way and their YTD point differential remains at +16.3 points per game.  So, again, laying single digits here seems like a really nice value.

Toronto hasn't exactly been taking on the best of the best these last six games and yet has produced a losing record.  They've lost at both Orlando and Sacramento, two teams that weren't even in playoff contention in year ago and also got blown out (by 20) at Miami.  They allowed the Kings to shoot 51.3% Sunday, a season-high for an opponent, and got outscored 16-2 to end the game.  I suppose one could turn that around and point out the Raptors easily could have won, but the fact they lost despite shooting 15 of 33 from three-point range is a BAD sign, especially when getting set to "step up" in competition like they are here.  I think that Golden State's close call vs. the Nets has driven this line down way too far and, oh by the way, the Warriors are 17-5 ATS the L3 seasons when taking the court w/ exactly two days rest. 10* Golden State

10* Nebraska (8:30 ET): Though it ended earlier (as per usual) than expected (lost in Rd of 32), #11 Villanova had quite the season last year. Jay Wright's Wildcats went a full two months w/o losing a game at one point and finished 25-10 against the spread, for one of the best marks vs. the number in the entire country. In fact, 'Nova is now 47-20 ATS the last two seasons, which is well over 67 percent and thus pretty unsustainable moving forward.  This year's team lost three key pieces from the squad that finished 33-3 SU last year and though a 91-54 win over Farleigh Dickenson in the opener looks nice, all that's done is further drive up the number as the Wildcats get set to face their first "real" opponent of the season, that being Nebraska. The Cornhuskers scored nearly 100 pts in their opener & I'm taking the points.

Villanova should once again rule the Big East this season.  But I do expect them to struggle a bit more than expected versus the non-conference slate.  This year's team is smaller and lost two of LY's best players (Darrun Hillard and JayVaughn Pinkston) to graduation and another key contributor (Dylan Ennis) transferred to Oregon. Last year's Wildcats were remarkably fortunate on the health front w/ virtually no time lost to injury. While it was a solid all-around performance Friday, I wouldn't put a ton of stock in that result as FDU shot an abysmal 27 percent from the floor.  Considering Nebraska shot 10 of 22 from three-point range in its opening game, I do not expect them to struggle as much against the zone defense.

It was a 97-51 win over Mississippi Valley State for Nebraska in its season opener, the program's highest scoring game in nearly a decade.  While the Cornhuskers are coming off a losing campaign in 2014-15 and saw their leading scorer depart for the NBA, there is still reason for optimism in Lincoln. HC Tim Miles brought in a key transfer from Kansas, Andrew White III, who led the way w/ 18 points on Saturday. This team has the necessary size and length to bother Villanova offensively.   Look for the underdog to come out and give the favorite all it can handle Tuesday night. 10* Nebraska

8* Miami (7:35 ET): Quietly, the Heat have morphed back into a top ten team in this league. At least that's what my own personal power ratings say as only Cleveland is better in the Eastern Conference and just a handful of teams from the West can say the same. The key has been defense. No team is allowing fewer points per game (90.2) right now and that's been the driving force behind the fact they have gone Under in eight consecutive games. Only once has Miami allowed 100+ in a game this season and that was 102 to Cleveland.  They've won three in a row, allowing 76, 88 and 91 points respectively and I really like their chances of "putting the clamps down" on a young Minnesota team that has lost four in a row, here tonight. Lay the points.

The T'wolves have been a bit of a surprise thus far, especially being a perfect 5-0 against the spread on the road.  They'd actually won each of their first four games away from home, all as the underdog, before bowing out to Indiana last week, 107-103 (still covered at +7.5).  However, we're starting to see clear signs of regression, most notably on the defensive end where they've allowed 112.2 PPG their last five contests.  On the offensive end of the floor, I do not anticipate them continuing to maintain their current scoring average of 103.1 PPG.  Consider that Minnesota's lowest scoring game of the season (84 points) came against this Miami squad, back on November 5th.  The spread for that game was 4 points, so w/ the Heat winning by 12 there, it's rather curious that the line isn't higher here, factoring in the change in venues.

Both Dwyane Wade and Gerald Green should be back in the lineup tonight for Miami, so the team should be even stronger than it's been of late. Meanwhile, Minnesota looks to again be w/o starting PG Ricky Rubio for a fifth straight game and they've yet to win with him out of the lineup.  Considering the T'wolves just allowed the Grizzlies to shoot better than 56 percent from the floor on Sunday, the Heat should have no problem scoring in this one.  Honestly, I cannot believe this line isn't double digits, which is where I expected it to be.  8* Miami

8* Duke (7:30 ET): We certainly didn't have to wait long for a Top 5 matchup this College Basketball season, did we?  This is a battle of LY's actual National Champ (Duke) vs. the team that was "supposed" to win it (Kentucky) and while Coach K's most ardent followers might like to imagine a world where his program resembles some "purer form" of the sport compared to John Calipari's Kentucky teams, that's simply not the case. In fact, one could argue that the Blue Devils are now doing a better job of taking advantage of the so-called "one and done" rule than UK.  Loaded recruiting classes have these two again poised to compete for the national championship.  My take here though is that while Kentucky is almost automatically favored every time out, Duke has passed them and is the better team getting points here.

In fact, the Blue Devils are an impressive 7-1 against the spread when taking points the past two seasons. They have won six of those games outright and in taking them here, you have to assume a cover = outright win. Now Duke certainly was not an underdog in either of its first two games this year, wins over Bryant and Siena by a combined 56 points where they've topped 90 pts both times.  Might the Blue Devils be getting a break defensively in this one, however? So far, they have allowed 47.6% shooting from three-point range, but Kentucky has struggled from distance at only 28.9%.  That's a far cry from Duke's own 50.0 percent shooting from behind the arc the last game. 

Kentucky has lost three of the past four matchups w/ Duke and like the Blue Devils struggled a bit more than was anticipated in the season opener, a 78-65 win over Albany.  The New Jersey Institute of Technology provided less resistance in a 30-point Wildcats' victory on Saturday, but still, Coach Cal's team has a lower margin of victory to this point than does Duke, thus I feel the line has the wrong team favored. Not to mention, Duke is 32-3 SU its L35 non-conference games (22-12 ATS) and 31-3 SU after scoring 80+ points (22-11 ATS).  It being so early in the season, teams w/ this much new talent are somewhat of "crapshoots," but I expect the defending champs to be more "big game ready" at this juncture. 8* Duke

8* San Francisco (10:00 ET):  Rice was not a good team last year.  The Owls finished 12-20 SU, although they were outscored by less than two points per game and actually went 17-9 at the betting window.  There was some promise coming into this season, but that went "out the window" w/ two key injuries, one to junior Marcus Jackson, who was started in all but one game LY and was expected to be their leading scorer TY.  The result was a starting five was in major flux coming into the season opener Thursday at California and things got downright ugly there as they fell by 32.  Given that result, I don't think the Owls are adequately priced here, especially considering an 0-5 ATS mark as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points the last two seasons.  Lay the points. 

San Francisco got its season off to a nice start w/ a 78-75 road win over IL-Chicago and I like their chances here as the Dons won while shooting only 38.1 percent.  USF isn't expected to be a player in the WCC this year and might not be even close to as formidable an opponent as Cal was for Rice, but playing at home and laying a short number seems ideal given that they were already able to win on the road.  When they are favored, the Dons typically take care of business, going 21-10 SU the L3 years and the number here is so short that I'm not really concerned about it "coming into play."  This team left a LOT of points on the table Friday at UIC due to missed free throws (went 22 of 39 from the charity stripe!) and coupled w/ the poor overall shooting, I'd expect a big bounce back night offensive against a Rice team that allowed Cal to shoot better than 50 percent from the floor.

More troubling for Rice is that they were 6 for 17 on three-pointers Friday, meaning they were just 16 for 43 inside the arc, which is beyond hideous. They were outscored by 16 in each half, another bad sign, and at no point were they competitive. Back to back road trips out West to start the season is not favorable, especially short-handed, and I'm just not sure where the points come from for the Owls right now.  This is a team that's won just 6 of its last 28 road games overall.  8* San Francisco

10* Boston (8:05 ET):  I think that the wrong team may be favored here.  The Rockets, who are being outscored by nearly seven points per game this season, have dropped three in a row - all as favorites.  I went against them on Saturday as they fell here at home to Dallas, 110-98 (closed -7.5), which dropped them to 1-5 ATS when laying points and 1-5 ATS at the Toyota Center as well.  It was also their fourth double digit loss of the season already, which is an alarming number.  Boston, undervalued simply because they played last night, has been the much better of the two teams in the early part of the season and is the play here. Take the points.

The Celtics, now 4-1 SU/ATS their last five games, are coming off an impressive 100-85 win in Oklahoma City on Sunday. Yes, the Thunder didn't have Kevin Durant, but it was a spot I expected Boston to fail in nevertheless.  The Celtics actually trailed by seven at the half, but stormed back and dominated the fourth quarter, outscoring OKC 28-11.  This is a team that has a variety of contributors; last night it was Marcus Smart leading the way w/ a season-high 26 points, one of four Celts in double digits. It's been back to back double-digit victories for Boston, over Atlanta & OKC, yet they're still undervalued due to playing w/o rest. But that's just fine by me as this team is an outstanding 27-11 against the spread when taking the court for the second time in as many nights. As a road underdog of 3.5 to 5 points, they are on a 10-5 ATS run. This is really a great value on the team that's playing better right now.

Meanwhile, the Rockets have been just awful on the defensive end, giving up an average of 108.3 points per game. Only two teams - the Wizards and Pelicans (similar disappointments) - are giving up more currently.  I jumped all over the other side Saturday when they elected not to play Dwight Howard in the second game of a back to back.  It wasn't just the defense that was bad against the Mavs either; James Harden was a woeful 5 for 21 shooting and the team finished at only 38.1 percent from the floor, including 9 of 34 from three-point range. Houston, who has allowed 100+ points in every game this season, has yet to win when not hitting triple-digits themselves. That's problematic against a Celtics squad that is allowing just 92.2 PPG its L5.  10* Boston

8* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): Both of these teams played Sunday, yet experienced very different results. Memphis picked up a much needed win (just their 5th of the season) in Minnesota, beating the T'wolves 114-106.  Oklahoma City blew a seven-point halftime lead and ended up losing by double digits to Boston at home (scored only 11 fourth quarter points).  Obviously, there's still no Kevin Durant for the Thunder, but I think they'll be just fine here as they're clearly having a better season so far compared to the Grizzlies.  

OKC had won three in a row - all by double digits - prior to last night's loss.  For awhile, it appeared as if they were headed for a fourth straight DD win.  They even led by 11 early in the third quarter before the wheels fell off.  Russell Westbrook, as you may have guessed, didn't play well down the stretch and wasn't getting much help.  The team shot a season-low 36.4 percent from the field, including just 6 of 25 from three-point range.  Still though, I'm not convinced that the Thunder should be an underdog in this spot. Collectively, they should be better at the offensive end tonight and individually, Westbrook should have a better game. Coming off a SU loss as a favorite, OKC is 68-39 against the spread. They are averaging 110.1 PPG, second most in the entire league, trailing only Golden State.

Memphis, on the other hand, is nowhere near as prolific offensively.  Before yday's win, they were shooting a league-low 40.1 percent from the floor and their 93.4 PPG scoring average is ahead of only winless Philadelphia.  Here at home, they're averaging just 90.5 PPG. Needless to say, I don't see the Grizz matching Sunday's 56.4 shooting percentage (season-high).  They used to be able to "hang their hat" on the defensive end, but there have been issues on that end of the floor as well.  They've allowed 100+ in three straight games and this is a team that's already suffered five double digit losses this season, two of them (to Cleveland & Golden State) by a combined 80 points!  They have simply not performed well against the better teams on the schedule.  Take the points.  8* Oklahoma City

10* Loyola Marymount (8:00 ET): This is a revenge spot for the underdog Lions, who are taking a generous number to boot.  Last season saw them lose, as eight-point home underdogs, 80-72 to the Anteaters.  So it was a push. Here, I expect better as LMU got away w/ shooting 34.7% from the floor in the season opener Friday, still beating Cal Irvine's conference rival Cal Fullerton, 79-74 as two-point home chalk.  Meanwhile, Cal Irvine is highly unlikely to match their own offensive production from Friday as they shot at a ridiculous 62% clip in an 89-72 win against overmatched Cal San Diego, a Division II squad. I'm taking the points here.

Loyola Marymount led their opener 41-31 and held off a late rally thanks to reserve Adom Jacko coming off the bench to post a double-double (22 pts, 12 rebounds).  This is a team that did not finish last year strong (lost last seven games) to finish 8-23 SU (4-14 in conf play) and they weren't particularly good at the betting window either, going 14-15-1 ATS.  But, on paper, this year's squad appears to be much improved.  A number of junior college transfers have come aboard in HC Mike Dunlap's second year at the helm.  The Lions went 8-5 ATS as road dogs last year, including 5-3 in the regular season when taking double digits.

UC Irvine made the NCAA Tournament last year and almost upset Louisville in the Round of 64. So they come into 2015-16 w/ high hopes. But they appear overvalued in this situation. They were 62.1 percent against the spread last season, so it's easy to understand why. But they were just 5-6 ATS home & it was only a March surge that brought them to such overall profitability.  They led LMU, wire to wire, last year, but never by the amount the oddsmakers are calling for here.  This should be a close game throughout.  10* Loyola Marymount

8* Utah (6:05 ET):  This has been a tough road trip for the Jazz, who have lost all three games thus far coming into the finale Sunday at Atlanta. The first two games, against Cleveland and Miami, were both close throughout, but then playing for a third time in four nights proved to be too tough as they fell way behind Orlando early on Friday. A late rally made things look a tad bit more respectable, but the bottom line is I expect the Quinn Snyder's team to be quite hungry this evening. They look like a really solid value plus the points here, not only because I actually have them rated higher than Atlanta, but also the Hawks have failed to cover their last three games, all as favorites. Take the points.

I played against the Hawks their last time out, the result there being a 106-93 at Boston as a 1-pt favorite. They were dominated on the boards and had to play w/o their coach Mike Budenholzer due to a medical issue w/ his wife. They'll be w/o Budenholzer again here and if the Boston game is any indication, that's going to be trouble. Of late, the team just hasn't been playing well as they trailed Minnesota by as many as 30 - at home - before having to hold off an Anthony Davis-less New Orleans team as well. Over their L5 games, Atlanta is allowing 107 points per game w/ opponents shooting 47.9 percent. They are 2-4 ATS at home this year, losing outright twice, and four wins have been by six points or less.

Utah is one of the top defensive teams in the league; in fact they came into Friday #1 in the league in points allowed.  Neither Rudy Gobert nor Rodney Hood were on the floor Friday due to respective injuries and their statuses are still in question for Sunday.  But with or without, the Jazz should play much better than they did against the Magic.  I have to imagine that they will see their overall shooting percentage (42.2%) start to rise.  HC Snyder even admitted his team was "on fumes" vs. Orlando, so after being off Saturday, I expect a much sharper effort here.  The Jazz had covered six of seven, including four straight, prior to losing to the Magic. They are a perfect 3-0 ATS as dogs this season. 8* Utah

10* Under Trail Blazers/Hornets (5:05 ET):  Portland has gone Over in seven consecutive games. But, this evening, they have an opponent that can help end that streak in Charlotte, who generally speaking will turn in a solid defensive effort and rarely tops 100 points. In fact, if you were to take out a 130-point "explosion" against the Bulls, then the Hornets' offensive numbers would come WAY down.  This will almost assuredly close as the highest O/U line for a Charlotte game to date. Interestingly enough, these teams have combined to go Over the total in all four meetings the last two seasons. But looking at the two O/U lines from last season, they were significantly lower, by double digits in fact. Take the Under.

Charlotte comes in off a loss at Chicago Friday night where they scored 33 points fewer than they did in the season's first meeting w/ the Bulls.  It was also their third consecutive Under. In fact, only two Hornets games all season have seen more than 202 total pts scored. Interestingly enough, the totals for both of those contests were low. As a favorite, Charlotte is 37-25 Under the last three seasons. That includes a 10-4 mark as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Something else worth noting here is that the Hornets went 15 of 33 from three-point range Friday night and still only scored 97 points. It is highly unlikely that they will have a repeat performance from behind the arc as those 15 makes actually tied a franchise record for a single game.

Portland, who has had to replace four starters from last season, has not been strong on the defensive end lately as they've allowed seven of nine opponents to top 100 points, including four straight. That streak was poised to end Friday, but a Zach Randolph buzzer-beater gave Memphis a 101-100 victory.  In the past, the Blazers have done an excellent job at limiting Charlotte's offensive production, keeping them at 91.9 points per game the L12 meetings.  On the flip side, I expect Portland to struggle from three-point range in this matchup as the Hornets are holding teams to just 31.9% shooting from three-point range.  10* Under Trail Blazers/Hornets

10* Cleveland (8:35 ET):  I took a 'push' on Cleveland last night, but for many the ATS result may very well have been a loss as they were bet up from the opening line of -6 against the Knicks (won 90-84). That would make it six straight non-covers for the Cavaliers following a 3-0 ATS start (were underdogs twice!), but remember that they've generally been asked to lay large numbers at the betting window. Despite being injured (no Kyrie Irving & Iman Shumpert), they continue to take care of business, winning eight straight against lesser competition. A weak early season slate continues tonight w/ a visit to Milwaukee and I see the Cavs covering here against a Bucks team that has certainly regressed from LY's campaign where they covered over 55% of their games. Lay the points. 

For a third time in this package, we have the road team being undervalued because of a back to back scenario. Cleveland, in stark contrast to last season, is almost "under the radar" right now but owns the Eastern Conference's best scoring margin (+8.3 points per game), which is what you'd expect.  Looking at the upcoming schedule, a case can certainly be made that they could be 13-1 heading into a game at Toronto the day before Thanksgiving. While the hole the team dug itself in last night vs. the Knicks is a bit concerning, they again showed they have little difficulty coming from behind.  That, of course, can be a bit problematic when laying points, but if we get a complete game here from LeBron and company, then the Cavs will cover this number w/ plenty of room to spare.

  Milwaukee has also played a light schedule this year, but they have only four wins and three came at the expense of either Brooklyn or Philadelphia, the two consensus worst teams in the league right now. Three times this season, the Bucks have dropped a game by 15+ points. They are coming off a one-point loss in Denver Wednesday and that was while shooting a season-best 53.2% from the floor. This is a much better defensive team that they face tonight as last night saw Cleveland hold the Knicks to just 12 fourth quarter points. Of course, there's no debate who the better offensive team is here either. The Cavs are 12-5 ATS after holding their previous opponent to 85 pts or less. 10* Cleveland

8* Dallas (8:05 ET): Here, we have another undervalued team, fueled by revenge, that is being undervalued due to the back to back scenario. The Mavericks won last night, 90-82 over the lowly Lakers (as 7.5-pt favorites), and despite the perception (largely correct) that this team is not as good as it once was, I believe they are in line to starting being undervalued on a game by game basis. Last season, Dallas was one of the worst ATS teams in the league (42.2%) while Houston was the most profitable to bet on (59.2%). But the Rockets certainly appear to have taken a big step back this season as they are only 3-6 vs. the number, including B2B outright losses to Brooklyn and Denver. Take the points here.

The Rockets played last night as well, losing in Denver 107-98 as 6.5-pt chalk.  There was a thought that Dwight Howard might be rested Friday, but he played, scoring 12 points and grabbing 10 rebounds, and the team still lost.  Now he's likely to miss this game, a huge break for the underdog Mavericks, who are looking to snap a 1-6 SU/ATS slide here in Houston. Remember that the Rockets eliminated the Mavs from LY's playoffs, a fact that I'm sure won't be lost on the Dallas players. Looking at just this season, it's hard to make a case for Houston to even be favored here as they are now giving up 108.1 points per game and are being outscored by 6.3 points on a per game basis. They're only 1-4 ATS at home and 1-4 ATS when favored.

Meanwhile, the Mavs have had a much better week than the Rockets, beating the Clippers and Lakers at home by a combined 18 points. Last night, they finally got almost a full game from Chandler Parsons, who played both halves last night for the first time all season. Unfortunately, that means that he's unlikely to play tonight, but I still think they'll do just fine by leaning on the emerging ZaZa Pachulia (really!) as their "consolation prize" signing ("Plan B" after being spurned by DeAndre Jordan) is averaging a double-double thus far.  In addition to being woeful defensively, Houston continues to turn the ball over way too much (20+ three times in the L5 games).  8* Dallas

8* Orlando (7:00 ET):  Washington has beaten the Magic nine straight times, not losing to them once in the past three seasons. In every one of those matchups, including an 88-87 (-4) win in this season's opener, the Wizards were considered to be the better team. The linesmakers are sticking w/ that thought process here, but even in D.C., I'm not entirely sure that I agree. Orlando did cover the season opener and overall have been the better team this season as they're now a league-best 8-2 ATS (5-5 SU) following an impressive 102-93 win over a good Utah team last night. The oddsmakers' unwillingness to favor the Magic this season (happened only two times) again works in our favor tonight.  Take the points.

Orlando didn't need Victor Oladipo (concussion) yday as they became just the second team (besides Cleveland) to score 100+ against a Jazz team that came in #1 in the NBA in points allowed. That game was virtually "over before it started" as the Magic opened on a 16-2 run, were up 33-15 after the first quarter and led by as many as 23 in the fourth quarter. A late and relatively meaningless Utah rally made the game seem closer than it actually was, so perhaps that and certainly the fact the Magic are playing in the second game of a back to back have them severely undervalued here. I'm not saying that they SHOULD be favored here (although my secondary power ratings say they should be!), but my main ratings say the line should be much lower. They are 2-0 ATS so far w/o rest, 7-1 ATS as a dog and have big-time revenge.

It's not just Orlando that should be lauded here, but Washington needs to be criticized. The Wizards promised to play at a faster pace in the preseason, but so far all that's delivered is a 5-1-1 Over record as they're giving up a whopping 110.4 points per game, which is second most only behind similarly disappointing New Orleans. Take away the win over Orlando and that number jumps to 114.3 PPG allowed. They just gave up 37 points in the first quarter and 68 in the first half of a 24-point home loss to Oklahoma City Tuesday. Orlando, who has had no such issues defensively (94.6 PPG allowed L5), should certainly improve upon its 12 of 32 shooting in the paint from last night and more good news is that the Thunder were 15 of 23 from three-point range against the Wizards, who may be w/o Bradley Beal here. You could certainly argue that the Magic are the better team right now whether or not the Wiz have Beal in the lineup.  8* Orlando

8* UNLV (10:00 ET): Cal Poly projects to be a player in the Big West this season, but this isn't a conference game to open the season and quite frankly, I think the line is way too low.  UNLV has underachieved the last couple of years under HC Dave Rice, but should be much better this season as it's the most talented Rebels team in years. Last year, they closed the regular season on a nice 11-2 ATS run & three of their MWC losses were to champ San Diego State by a combined 11 pts.  This year's team has one of the best big men in the country in Stephen Zimmerman, Jr, who some are comparing to the NBA's Greg Monroe. I say lay the points here.

UNLV does not have an easy non-conference slate. They play UCLA, Oregon, Arizona and Wichita State to name a few, so a blowout win on Opening Night seems like a necessity. While the Rebels will be "stepping up" (to face the bigger Pac 12 teams) in the coming weeks, it's their opponent stepping up here and the Mustangs simply haven't performed well in the past against the Mountain West, going 2-11-1 ATS the L14 games against the conference, including 0-4 the L3 seasons.  They have lost all 14 games straight up. Out West, it's a pretty simple pecking order:  Pac 12 > Mountain West > Big West.  For a team from the better conference to only be laying single digits, on its home floor, it seems like a steal. Especially when you consider UNLV is on a 31-6 SU/23-14 ATS run as a favorite.

Cal Poly only won 13 games a year ago and had its fair share of issues on offense, averaging just 60.4 PPG for the season.  On the road, that number got even lower and they really struggled to put the ball in the hoop down the stretch, averaging only 52.4 PPG the final five games (all losses).  They should struggle here as well against a UNLV team that allowed just 59.1 PPG at home last season.  Four times in conference play last season, the Mustangs failed to score even 50 points.  Yes, they return their top five scorers from 2014-15, but I'm not sure that will be enough to compete when stepping up in class, particularly w/ the team looking to adjust its pace of play this season.  8* UNLV

10* Mississippi State (9:00 ET):  Mississippi State did not finish last season strong as they went just 3-8 SU from February 1st on and that ended up costing former HC Rick Ray his job.  In steps Ben Howland, who is a wonderful hire here despite the bitter taste from the way things ended for him at UCLA.  Howland inherits a pretty talented team here in Starkville and brings in top recruit Malik Newman, who some are projecting to be an All-American candidate in his freshman season.  The Bulldogs had a losing ATS record last year, but were better than their SU record showed as half of the team's losses came by six points or less. I look for them to start the season w/ a big win over Eastern Washington, who is making a long and tough trip here.  Lay the points.

Howland has already changed the mood around Starkville and the team has yet to even take the floor.  Recruiting is going well for next season and this year's team could end up finishing #2 in the SEC (behind Kentucky obviously).  Some may take this line is putting "the cart before the horse," (MSU has been favored only 11x the L2 seasons and LY was asked to lay DD only 3x), but I do not.  Howland has four starters back, three of them seniors, so this is a veteran-laden team.  Their backcourt projects to be very good w/ Newman and last year's leading scorer Craig Sword.

As for Eastern Washington, they were in the NCAA Tournament last year, but must replace their leading scorer Tyler Harvey, who didn't just lead the team, but the entire nation w/ 22.9 points per game!  That's clearly a big void to fill. I've seen them projected outside the top 200 teams in the country, which is a scary thought for taking their act out East so early in the season.  The Eagles did not play a single opponent the caliber of Mississippi State last year, save for Georgetown in the Big Dance and the result there was a 10-point loss on a neutral floor.  There will be growing pains early in the season for EWU and this certainly has the potential to be their worst loss of the entire season.  They allowed 77.2 PPG away from home last year. 10* Mississippi State

8* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET):  It's still really early in the season, so we can still find a ton of value in some situations as oddsmakers scramble to gain a proper read on some of these teams. One such situation presents itself tonight and surprisingly it's with a team being asked to lay double digits. Oklahoma City might be w/o Kevin Durant right now, but they certainly won't need his services to get by lowly Philadelphia, who is now the league's only winless team and struggling to even remain competitive on a nightly basis. The 76ers' rating isn't nearly low enough right now as they should prob be a DD dog to almost every team, at least on the road.  This line should be closer to -19 according to my own power ratings! Lay the points.

The Thunder are no strangers to being without Durant.  He missed a total of 55 games last year, which is why they ended up missing the playoffs.  The good news, if you can call it that, is they should be used to this.  Philadelphia should certainly provide little in the way of resistance as well as they've lost all eight games by an average of 13.6 PPG.  Their last two games saw them lose by a combined 39 points and both were at home.  OKC, admittedly w/ Durant, comes off B2B 20+ pt wins over Phoenix & Washington. Not only are the Sixers an astounding 0-33 SU as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points the last three seasons, but they have a losing ATS record in the situation, including 4-11 vs. the number when priced between +12.5 and +15.

Look for Enes Kanter's offensive numbers to go up immediately.  He averaged 18.7 PPG w/ Durant out of the lineup last season.  But obviously it will be Russell Westbrook shouldering the load.  He comes off his first triple-double of the season Wednesday & was one of three Thunder players to score 20+ against the Wizards, none of them named "Durant."  OKC has scored 249 points its L2 games and that's bad news for a Philly squad that averages only 92.9 PPG and is coming off its worst defensive performance of the season as well (allowed 119 pts to Toronto).  They are dealing w/ a ton of injuries right now, including Nerlens Noel's wrist.  Look for a blowout here. 8* Oklahoma City

8* Cleveland (7:35 ET): While my own personal power rankings don't suggest that this is necessarily a great value play, nor does the fact the Cavs failed to cover a 10.5-pt spot at home against the Knicks earlier in the year (won by only 10), I'm going to lay the points here. LeBron and company have failed to cover five in a row after opening 3-0 ATS (underdogs twice), but were asked to lay double digits three times during that stretch.  New York has been competitive (4-4 SU) and did lead the Cavaliers 46-38 at the half, in Cleveland, back on November 4th.  However, they are off a tough loss (buzzer-beater waved off) Wednesday in Charlotte and that might be difficult to overcome. The Cavs are in line for a big win. 

Cleveland has played an admittedly weak schedule to this point, but has done so short-handed. They pulled out an impressive 118-114 home win over Utah on Tuesday, an offensive performance that is quite impressive when you consider that the Jazz lead the league defensively in terms of points per game allowed (90.0).  Taking the floor w/ exactly two days rest has been a profitable situation for these Cavaliers the past three seasons, going 17-10 against the spread.  This team has shot 50% or better from the floor in three of its last five games and James has been just as efficient as ever. Even w/o Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert, this is a deeper team than last year and not as reliant on LeBron. Kevin Love, in particular, has played well. He has B2B 22-point games and Mo Williams has been a nice addition as well.

The Knicks have had their share of issues in the fourth quarter, getting outscored 26-17 by the Cavs in the first meeting and then 26-14 by Charlotte in a two-point loss Wednesday.  As a team, they have yet to shoot 50% or better in any game this season and were a woeful 27% in the 4Q vs. the Hornets.  After opening 2-1 SU, New York has dropped four of six w/ its two wins, one of them at home against the Lakers, coming by a combined six points.  They are a woeful 33-53 ATS at home the L3 seasons, including 3-10 as a dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Lay the points.  8* Cleveland

8* Boston (7:35 ET):  The Celtics let me down on Wednesday by losing here at home to Indiana, 102-91 as 3.5-pt favorites. Perhaps it was the fact they were playing in the second night of a back to back, but Boston fell into an early hole (trailed by 8 after 1Q) and never really recovered. However, it's not like they didn't have an opportunity to come back. It certainly didn't help that they shot a woeful 4 of 24 from three-point range, plus they missed 7 of 19 free throw attempts in the third quarter alone.  I expect a bounce back type performance tonight.  Atlanta, though off a win Weds vs. New Orleans and 8-2 SU for the season, should not be favored here according to my personal power rankings. Take the points.

The Hawks were a victim of the public betting the number up on Wednesday as they couldn't cover the number against New Orleans, who was w/o Anthony Davis. In fact, they trailed by nine at halftime and led by just one entering the fourth quarter. So, really, they never were even in position to cover against the Davis-less Pelicans.  Poor starts have been the story the past two games for Atlanta as earlier in the week they fell into a 30-point hole, at home, vs. Minnesota. Boston is the toughest opponent that the Hawks will have faced since a narrow road win over Miami.  They are just 4-7 ATS after playing three consecutive home games and have played four of their previous five at home. They are the Eastern Conference's lone unbeaten team on the road (4-0), which won't last.

I was impressed by Evan Turner's play for the Celtics Wednesday as he was thrust into the starting lineup and scored 20 points, a season-high.  Backcourt mate Isaiah Thomas, the team's leading scorer w/ 20.6 PPG, scored a season-low 14 pts however, but I'd expect better production here.  We should see improved shooting across the board for the Celtics here as the Hawks allowed the T'wolves to shoot 57.5 percent from the field.  Meanwhile, Atlanta is highly unlikely to maintain its current 104.4 points per game scoring average. These teams played two close games last year, including a Boston 89-88 win here at home. 8* Boston

8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET):  The Clips failed to cover the spread yet again last night, this time losing the game outright (in Dallas).  That made me happy as I was on the Mavs, who were taking a generous +7 in an emotional game for them because of the DeAndre Jordan situation.  Seeing as they'd already beaten the Mavs earlier in the year, the game likely wasn't as big of a deal for Los Angeles.  Unrested, LA is undervalued tonight visting Phoenix, who is off B2B losses, the most recent coming by 21 points at Oklahoma City on Sunday. I went against the Suns in that one and will do the same here as I think the Clips are far more likely to turn around their early season ATS woes. They're the far better team.

Overall, the Clippers have failed to cover five of the last six games. But they've been a "medium-sized" favorite or higher in all of those non-covers. (The one ATS win came as an underdog in a loss at Golden State.)  They were nine-point home favorites over Phoenix (won by six) back on 11.2, which at the time had them at 4-0 straight up. They did build a lead as big as 11 points in beating the Suns for an eighth straight time. With lower lines, the Clippers are not only 4-0 straight up, but 4-0 against the spread their L4 games in Phoenix. Both of last season's wins here came by double digits. 

I'm not really worried about the Clips being in the second game of a back to back as they've gone 24-14 straight up in that situation the L3 years! Also, they are 29-9 SU when coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Last night saw them outshot 55.3 percent (season-worst FG% allowed) to 43.0 percent, so the fact they still kept the game close should be taken as a really positive sign. Three-point shooting and rebounding have been two problems for the Clips this season, but last night they were an encouraging 12 of 27 from behind the arc and they also won the rebounding battle for the first time all season. Phoenix has conceded 119 rebounds its last two games and are allowing opponents to shoot 41.8% from three-point range here at home.  Lay the points.  8* LA Clippers

10* Miami (7:35 ET): I would much rather watch this game than Golden State-Minnesota tonight on TNT as my power rankings actually suggest this is a matchup of top eight teams in the league! However, it's a tough spot for the visiting Jazz, who two nights ago played a very tough game in Cleveland and came up just four points shy against the favored Cavaliers. They allowed a season-high 118 points in that one and while the Heat may not have LeBron James anymore, they can play defense. In fact, these teams actually rank 1-2 in the league in points per game allowed w/ Utah at 89.7 and Miami at 90.1.  The key here though is that the Heat are at home and coming off a much easier game (against the Lakers) on Tuesday. Lay the points.

Utah's loss in Cleveland carried an additional cost in that starting center Rudy Gobert injured his ankle and he may not play here. Losing his 3.4 blocks per game would be huge considering the Jazz will have to deal w/ the Heat's own shot-blocker extraordinaire, Hassan Whiteside, who is averaging 3.9 blocks/game to go along w/ solid averages of 15.3 points and 11.4 rebounds per game. Miami's worst defensive effort of the season also came against Cleveland, but they allowed "only" 102 points to the Cavaliers. Since that time, they've kept five of six opponents to 90 points or less, all of those games staying Under the total. The O/U line is very low here and that's a good thing for the Heat as they are 5-1 ATS L3 seasons at home when the total is in the 180 to 184.5-point range.

Miami may have missed the playoffs last season, but this is a much improved team this year. Some of that is health as Chris Bosh is back and coming off a season-high 30 points Tuesday. Whiteside's emergence is clearly the driving force on the defensive end. But the fact that Justice Winslow somehow fell to them in the draft was an absolute steal.  The numbers suggest that it is when Winslow is on the court that the Heat are at their best defensively. Again, I think Utah left it all on the floor in Cleveland and it's going to be tough for them to play at that level in B2B road games. All five of the Heat's victories this season have been by double digits. 10* Miami

10* Dallas (8:05 ET):  This is another early season revenge game (for the Mavs) and it's a national TV game against the team that "stole" DeAndre Jordan from them over the summer to boot. Yes, I went against Mark Cuban's, pardon me, Rick Carlisle's team last night in New Orleans, but that was a desperate and winless Pelicans team I was playing there. I even cited the potential for a Mavs' look ahead to tonight.  Retaining the services of Jordan in the offseason was clearly a win for the Clippers at the expense of the Mavs, and they drew "first blood" on the court w/ a 104-88 win at Staples Center back on October 29th. Don't think for a second that any of this is lost on the Mavs' players, who I think are being severely undervalued here at home tonight. Take the points.

In that first meeting, Dallas was playing w/o rest as is the case here as well. But, the difference is that the Mavs were coming off a SU/ATS win (over Phoenix, which I cashed in on!) prior to that first meeting.  Last night, they fell into too big of a hole to climb out of (trailed 12-0 out of the gate) and were down by as many as 23 in the second half.  At that point, I have to believe their thoughts turned to tonight.  This team clearly is not what it once was and will have to fight just to make the playoffs this year. But I can't imagine that a fifth double digit loss is in the cards, particularly because they're unlikely to shoot as poorly here as they did last night (5 of 20 from 3-pt range) or in the first matchup w/ the Clippers (36.1 percent overall).  Also, the Mavs have not been a home underdog of this size even once over the past three seasons.

Meanwhile, the Clips are just 2-7 ATS as road faves of 6.5 to 9 points and have failed to cover four of five games overall since beating the Mavs.  All four ATS losses came as favorites, including just a two-point win at home over Memphis Monday night as seven-point chalk. This will be just their third road game of the season and it's the front end of a back to back (at Phoenix tomm night).  All of Los Angeles' games this season, save for the win over Dallas, have been decided by seven points or less. 10* Dallas

8* New Orleans (8:05 ET):  This is yet another early season revenge spot and I've made the decision to "roll with" the Pelicans with or without Anthony Davis. Of course, I was on them last night as they picked up their first win of the season, 120-105 over Dallas. Encouraging is that they did so w/ Davis sitting out the entire second half and the rest of the team was even able to extend the lead (as high as 23 points) w/ him in the locker room.  Davis playing tonight would obviously be a great benefit, but if he doesn't, we'll just be able to get a better line.  Take the points.

New Orleans lost to Atlanta on Friday, 121-115 at home, despite Davis going for a career-high 43 points. Including last night, the Pelicans have now scored 115 points in regulation three times this season, yet are only 1-6 SU/ATS, which is crazy. It's often said that teams playing in the second night of a back to back are undervalued and you can certainly make that case here considering Atlanta was only an 8.5-point home favorite to what I still consider to be an inferior (compared to New Orleans) Minnesota squad on Monday and the Hawks lost that game, 117-107 after trailing by as many as 30! It's not as if the Pelicans were taken down to the wire last night either; they led 12-0 out of the gate and never trailed.  Yes, there's injuries here, but the team is in a good position to cash tonight.

Atlanta had won seven in a row prior to losing to the T'wolves Monday night, but this will be the most points they've been asked to lay in any game this season.  Four of their wins during the now-ended winning streak came by six points or less.  New Orleans remains desperate as they cannot afford to fall too far behind in a very tough Western Conference. The Hawks were expected to take a step back this season, coming off a 60-win campaign in 2014-15. Kent Bazemore really hasn't done a good job filling in for the departed DeMarre Carroll and it really does speak volumes that the team trailed Minnesota by that many points. When New Orleans visited Phillips Arena last season, they were only a 2.5-point dog, so there's value for you right there. 8* New Orleans

8* Boston (7:35 ET):  Last week, these teams played in Indiana and I took the Pacers as a two-point home dog (citing value) in an eventual 100-98 win and cover. Since then, Frank Vogel's team has remained perfect ATS this month (5-0) to increase its November run to 25-8 ATS the L3 seasons. However, it's a "role reversal" here as this time the value is on the revenge-minded Celtics laying a short number at home. Granted, they had to play Tuesday (beat Milwaukee 99-83 on the road), but Indiana is playing for a third time in four nights, thus likely being the more fatigued unit as Boston hadn't played since Friday prior to last night's 'W.'  Final result aside, if the Celtics were favored on the road against the Pacers the last time, it stands to reason they should be favored by more here at home. Lay the number.

Though they found themselves in an early 10-point hole, it ended up being a close, back & forth game for the Celtics when they played the Pacers last week. The game wasn't decided until a pair of Monta Ellis' free throws in the final 13 seconds and Boston did have the final shot (missed). They held Indiana to only 38.5% shooting (a season-best defensively), but turnovers and rebounding were the stories as the Celts coughed it up a season-worst 19 times in that game and were outscored 24-11 in second-chance points. Indiana was actually the one playing at home and w/o rest last Weds, so the shoe is really "on the other foot" here. Injuries are a bit of a concern for Boston right now, but they managed to turn in another strong effort on the defensive end last night, holding the Bucks to only 83 points. That was their second straight double digit victory as they blew out Washington (by 20) here at home on Friday. 

Indiana's only loss in November came by four points in Cleveland, so no shame there, plus they responded by becoming the first team this season to cover against Orlando w/ a 97-84 home win (as 4-pt home faves) on Monday. That was just the second time this season that the Pacers were favored and tonight marks just their third road game. Two of their four wins have been by three points or less, so had those results gone the other way, we'd be talking about this team in a very different way right now.  The Celtics are an incredibly profitable 27-10 ATS when playing in the second game of a back to back. 8* Boston

10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): As we enter the third week of the NBA season, three teams are still winless. Two are Philadelphia and Brooklyn, which is no surprise seeing as how I have that duo at the bottom of my own personal power rankings. But the other is New Orleans, a major surprise considering the Pelicans came into this year w/ a ton of hype due to Anthony Davis. Tonight marks the Pelicans' second chance at a revenge spot this year. While they failed in the first, that was against Golden State. Tonight, they host Dallas, who beat them 107-98 on Saturday after outscoring NO by 15 in the second half (65 2H points for the Mavs). Simply put, I just cannot see the Pellies continuing to lose like this & I'll call for them to bounce back here. 

Dallas, while 3-3, is also "down" this year. Coming off a year where they were near the bottom of the league in terms of ATS record, I thought there might be slight improvement there, but the bottom line is this team is definitely worse on the court. Getting left "at the altar" by DeAndre Jordan set the tone for a disappointing summer and you get the sense that this is a roster in decline. Speaking of Jordan, the Mavs get a second shot and him & the Clippers tomorrow night, in a nationally televised game, so this might be a little bit of a lookahead for them. Not so for New Orleans, however, as they are desperate to pick up that first win of the season. The Pelicans were one of the best ATS teams in the league a season ago.

The Mavs shot a season best 47.6% from the floor Saturday night, an all-too familiar story for the Pelicans, who are last in the league in points allowed. With Davis in the middle, that should not be happening.  Already twice this season, New Orleans has lost a game in which it scored 115 points in regulation!  A big part of the problem for the Pelicans has been injuries, but hopefully Jrue Holliday and his 13.0 PPG scoring average will be back in the lineup tonight (sat out Saturday). Interestingly, the Pelicans have been favored in only one game so far. Obviously, they lost it - outright - but still that at least puts the SU record in some context. Look for Davis' play to start improving and for him to lead his team to a win here. 10* New Orleans

8* Over Knicks/Raptors (7:35 ET):  New York has stayed Under in four straight games while Toronto has done them "one better" w/ a 5-game Under streak. But, as these Atlantic Division rivals are set to take the court Tuesday, I have reason to believe we'll see more scoring than expected. The Raptors, once 5-0 SU/ATS before B2B SU/ATS losses, have essentially seen their scoring decrease in every game since they scored a season high 113 pts in a road win over Boston on October 30th. They "bottomed out" w/ an ugly 76-point effort at Miami Sunday and have shot below 40 percent in both losses. But back "North of the Border," the offense should pick up the pace. The Knicks opened the year by going Over in three straight, but neither they nor their opponents have broken 100 in any of the L4 games. That should change here.  Take the Over.

The Knicks have not shot the ball better than 40.7 percent in any of those L4 games. However, they have actually seen their own scoring INCREASE w/ each passing game during that stretch. They were up to 99 points in a win Sunday afternoon over the lowly Lakers. Like Toronto, this O/U line will threaten to be the lowest for the Knicks all season. The O/U line closed at 212 for the Lakers game. While that clearly has a lot to do w/ LA's own defensive ineptitude, the Raptors may be w/o their own top defender, DeMarre Carroll tonight due to plantar fascitis. Carmelo Anthony may be on pace for the worst shooting percentage of his career and rookie Kristaps Porzingis is likewise below 40 percent for the year. But I expect both to become more efficient, starting here.

Defensively, the Knicks have been surprisingly solid the L3 games, twice holding opponents below 40 percent. But it should be pointed out that while Toronto scored only 76 pts its last time out, they did have a solid 47 at halftime before a woeful second half shooting display. This is a team that topped 100 pts in each of its first five games and has regularly seen O/U lines north of 200 pts. In their only two home games this season, the Raptors have scored exactly 106 pts both times. The Over is 14-4 for them when coming off a DD loss. 8* Over Knicks/Raptors

8* Denver (9:05 ET):  Often times, you'll find a team playing in the second night of a back to back undervalued because of the expectation that they'll struggle. That's not the case here though w/ Portland, who is off a brutal loss last night. Leading Detroit by 13 pts going into the fourth quarter, at home, the Blazers were promptly outscored 41-11 over the final 12 minutes w/ the Pistons' Andre Drummond turning in one of the best single-game efforts I've seen all year (29 points, 27 rebounds).  I think it's going to be tough for Portland to overcome that defeat, on the road, w/o rest.  Denver might be a bottom tier team, but their homecourt advantage is still very real and for years they have dominated unrested visitors here at the Pepsi Center. Lay the short number.

Denver has not played since Friday when they covered a large 17-point spread (largest for any NBA game this season) at Golden State (lost by 15).  It was their fourth DD loss this season and they have yet to win at home.  The big issue in their two previous home games, both against division rivals (Minnesota, Utah), has been poor shooting. They're shot a woeful 34.1 percent overall from the floor in those two losses, a percentage which obviously is in line to go up.  This is a team that has not opened a season 0-3 at home in 13 seasons. The last time it happened was the year before they drafted Carmelo Anthony. There were signs of an impending turnaround in the second half vs. the Warriors, whom they outscored 60-45 over the final two quarters while shooting 51.1 percent.

Even though it was a loss, Portland actually shot a season-best 53.3 percent from floor last night. But that's a bad sign for tonight as they're unlikely to duplicate. Let's remember that this is a team that's had to replace four starters from last season, most notably LaMarcus Aldridge. I'm surprised to see that they've started 4-3 SU as they were projected for below 30 wins by the oddsmakers.  This is already the third time they've been asked to play back to backs and while they're 1-1 SU/ATS in the situation so far, this is the first time they have to play the second game on the road. As a road dog of three points or less, the Blazers are 6-12 ATS L3 seasons while the Nuggets are 6-3 ATS laying three or less at home. 8* Denver

10* Under Bulls/76ers (7:05 ET): Well, all the "goodwill" that Chicago may have built up as as result of their impressive, Derrick-Rose led 104-98 win over Oklahoma City Thursday quickly went away w/ an embarrassing 102-93 home loss (in OT) to Minnesota (as 9.5-pt chalk) Saturday night. They've alternated wins and losses, or rather losses and wins, their L5 games (2-3 SU) including a really bad loss (by 25 pts) at Charlotte. So, there are no guarantees as they visit league-worst Philadelphia Monday. That being said, I can't really endorse the 76ers either in this spot; certainly not after this winless bunch failed to cash Saturday night here at home in what looked to be a pretty decent spot against unrested Orlando. Instead, I'm on the total. Take the Under.

These teams played three times last season and all three games went Over the total. The last four meetings between the two here in Philly have also all gone Over. So, history may not be on our side, but the number are as twice in 2014-15, the O/U line was sub-190.0.   Playing on the road when the O/U line falls into the 195 to 199.5 point range, the Bulls are 10-4 Under the L3 seasons. The Sixers are 17-9 Under as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Chicago scored only 93 points in an OT game their last time out, though depending on your point of view, that looks better/worse when you consider they didn't score a single point in overtime.  Philadelphia has been held under 100 points in all games this year except when facing Cleveland (interesting), including twice under 90. 

I expect Chicago to rediscover its defensive identity Monday after giving up 100+ to the T'wolves. Again, that was just a 93-93 game at the end of regulation, however.  In three of their first four games, all against conference opponents, the Bulls held the opposition under 100 pts. Only one time this year have they allowed their opponent to shoot above 45 percent from the floor.  Philly comes in averaging only 92 PPG while shooting a pretty ugly 42.8 percent overall. The key here will be the Sixers' defense, which again outside of the two Cleveland games has been pretty decent. No other opponent has shot better than 47 percent against them. 10* Under Bulls/76ers

8* Oklahoma City (7:05 ET):  After opening up 3-0, the Thunder have lost three in a row, all by six points or less. They do only have one blowout win to their credit, that being here at home over lowly Denver, but tonight should be another as they've had two days off to prepare for a Phoenix team that I have little regard for. The Suns are off a loss too, which snapped a four-game ATS win streak. The loss came at home, to Detroit, 100-92 as four-point chalk. Other than a home and home sweep of Portland (four new starters this year), the Suns have just one win to their credit, at the expense of Sacramento. Last year, when the Thunder were more depleted, they still managed to take three of four matchups w/ the Suns. Lay the points.

Defensively, OKC has had its issues thus far. The Denver game was the only time that they allowed fewer than 100 pts this year.  Fortunately though, Phoenix has had its share of issues offensively this season. They shot just 40.2 percent overall against the Pistons. In fact, that Sacramento game was the only time this year that the Suns have shot better than 45% in a game.  Twice they've been below 40 percent.  I just don't see them keeping pace w/ a Thunder squad that will have the two best players on the floor (Durant, Westbrook) Oklahoma City averaged 122.7 PPG in its three wins and their dynamic duo is averaging 57 points per game.

There have also been no offensive issues in the past for the Thunder when facing the Suns. They've topped 102 in 17 of the last 18 matchups, including all four last year, and are 14-3 SU the L17 overall.  One big key advantage here for Oklahoma City is that they are leading the league in three-point percentage at 39.2. It's been tough competition the L3 games for OKC; this is a definite drop in class.  Meanwhile, for Phoenix, this will be just the second time they are matched up w/ a team that was being projected to make the playoffs at the start of the season.  8* Oklahoma City

8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET):  After giving up 110 points in a close win over the Kings last night, the Rockets are walking into the proverbial "lion's den" here against the rested Clippers, whose only loss this year came at the hands of unbeaten Golden State. It's not like the Clips need any additional motivation coming off their first loss of the season, but they have it here in the form of revenge for last season's crushing playoff exit at the hands of Houston. If you recall, Los Angeles was up 3-1 in that particular series and had the Rockets "dead to rights," up 17 in the third quarter here at home in the potential series clincher, but let it get away and were outscored by 37 points over the final five quarters. Tonight should be LA's night. Lay the points.

I played against the Rockets last night and the end result was a 'push' in their six-point victory over the Kings. They led "wire to wire," but the game got close at the end and were it not for James Harden's 43 points, things could have turned out very differently. Considering Harden entered last night shooting just 29.4 percent from the floor, I wouldn't be expecting a repeat performance here. Yes, Dwight Howard was given the night off Friday and will be back tonight, but there are still a number of other injuries the team is dealing with (three rotation players out). Remember that Houston, the best ATS team in the league last year, has covered just one game so far this season and started the year w/ three consecutive 20+ point losses (first team to do that in NBA history!).

The Clippers actually rallied from an early 17-point hole at Golden State Thursday night to take a 10-point lead w/ less than eight minutes remaining in the game.  But beating the Warriors is hard to do and in the end, it was a four-point loss.  That being said, LA can take solace in the fact that they are the ONLY team so far to stay within double digits of the Warriors.  The Rockets lost to the Warriors by 20 and that was at home.  We know what the Clips are capable of at home (4-0 SU this year, winning by an avg margin of 9 PPG) and this will be the fewest # of points they've been laid to ask here at the Staples Center so far this season. This is a great spot situationally for the home team. 8* LA Clippers

10* Brooklyn (8:35 ET): With an embarrassing home loss to the Lakers Friday night, the Nets maintained their place as one of the league's three winless teams, alongside Philadelphia and (surprisingly) New Orleans. They've been outscored by a league worst 13.2 points per game to this point and I have them ahead of only the 76ers (who have the last spot in perpetuity) in my own personal power rankings.  But, brighter times could be ahead, at least this evening as they visit Milwaukee in an early season revenge spot. The Bucks, who also played last night (beat New York 99-92), won at Brooklyn five days ago by a final score of 103-96 (as 1.5-pt favorites). I'll take the points in the rematch.

When these teams first played, Milwaukee was 0-3 and coming off an ugly loss the previous night in Toronto. They've now won three straight, but all have been at the expense of the dregs of the Atlantic (Nets, 76ers, Knicks) and by no more than a seven-point margin. I've already played against this team, as a favorite, a couple of times this season (and gone 2-0 ATS) and noted that they are somewhat overvalued in that role coming off a profitable 2014-15 campaign at the betting window (55.3 percent ATS).  The Bucks were lucky last night in the sense that their own awful three-point shooting (3 of 14) was "topped" by New York going just 4 of 21 from behind the arc. An early 14-point lead was huge as the margin was only two points heading into the fourth quarter, but the Knicks could never "get over the hump."

Brooklyn was also terrible from distance last night, missing 16 of 19 three-point attempts. Sadly, that's nothing new as the team is a league-worst 22.7 percent from 3-pt range this year. That and turnovers have been the major issues. They actually jumped out to an early 27-18 lead on the Lakers, but wound up giving that away by halftime. Part of the problem, in my opinion, is that there were a ton of Laker fans at the game last night and it almost had a feel of a road game for the Nets, despite being at the Barclays Center. This is an actual road game, but considering the way they've played the Bucks in five meetings the last two seasons (four decided by 7 pts or less), I'm siding with the underdog. Points could be at a premium in this one. 10* Brooklyn

10* Sacramento (10:35 ET):  I'm well aware that Boogie Cousins isn't expected to suit up for the Kings tonight, but a rare national TV appearance at home should have the rest of the team fired up here and I'll call for them to cover a generous spread. Last year, the Rockets and Kings finished at opposite ends of the ATS spectrum w/ the former leading the league at 59.2 percent while Sacramento "brought up the rear" at 40.3 percent.  So far in 2015-16, the early season returns haven't been all that promising on either side. You've had the predictable regression on the Houston side of things (1-4 ATS) while Sacramento is just 2-3 ATS. But this line is clearly inflated due to the Cousins' injury and I think we can take advantage.

Houston's season got off to a real ugly start as they lost each of their first three games by 20+ points, becoming the first team in league history to "accomplish" such a dubious feat.  Things have since turned for the better w/ a pair of five-point wins over Oklahoma City & Orlando (both at home). However, it was a "fight to the finish" in both as they trailed the Thunder by 11 points at halftime and then needed OT to get by the pesky Magic.  An issue that the Rockets are dealing with right now is Dwight Howard's back, which will continue to limit his time on the court. Tonight marks the front end of a back to back (at Clippers tomorrow night) for the team, so Howard's minutes may be limited or he may not play at all.  They chose to rest him entirely the first time they were in the front end of a back to back and the result was a 20-point loss at Miami. Overall, they are 0-2 w/o Howard this year, also losing by 20 to lowly Denver. 

Not facing Howard would be a big break for Sacramento considering they'll be w/o their best player too. But we do know Houston will not have the services of three key contributors: Terrance Jones, Patrick Beverley and Donatas Motiejunas.  So not having Cousins might not be THAT big of a deal for Sacramento here, all things considered.  Having to carry an increased scoring load, James Harden has really struggled from the floor (below 30 percent!). The Kings had largely been competitive before running into a hot shooting Suns team Weds night and I think are a nice value getting all these points here at home. 10* Sacramento

8* New Orleans (8:05 ET):  With Anthony Davis thought to be ready to ascend to the top of the league, the Pelicans came into 2015-16 w/ a lot of promise. So far, they've failed to deliver. They are 0-4, both straight up and against the spread, but two of the games were against Golden State. On paper, things don't get a whole lot easier this evening as in comes Atlanta, the team that finished w/ the best record in the Eastern Conference last year. The Hawks have won five in a row as well, however, those wins have all come at the expense of bad Eastern Conference teams, only one of whom made the playoffs a season ago and that was Brooklyn, who is awful this year. I just can't see New Orleans continuing to lose, so I'll take the points here.

Both of these teams were big winners at the betting window last season (ATL 57.9% ATS, NO 57.1%). Thus, you would expect some slight regression this year seeing as both were surprise teams in 2014-15.  Atlanta hasn't really been asked to lay big points this season, though they did lose outright as seven-point chalk in the opener.  They haven't lost since, but three of the five wins have come by six points or less. It was a two-point game entering the fourth quarter vs. Brooklyn Wednesday. Fortunately (for them), they were able to connect on 59 percent of their FG attempts in the second half, but as you know that's a very difficult, if not impossible, pace to maintain.  They also benefited from 19 Nets' turnovers. There were actually 14 lead changes in the game and the Hawks didn't go up by double digits until there were less than five minutes remaining.

At home last year, Atlanta was dominant. On the road, they were far more fallible, going only 25-16 SU.  They lost here in New Orleans, as a three-point favorite, 115-100.  The Pelicans are coming off B2B home losses, so they are desperate here.  I cannot fathom Davis continuing to play as poorly as he has to this point and the team is likely to see its shooting improve across the board.  Davis' own shooting has been worse than any four-game stretch last season for him. Injuries have literally hurt the Pelicans so far, as has facing Steph Curry twice, but I expect better from this team tonight. 8* New Orleans

8* Boston (7:35 ET): I view these teams as being pretty even. Therefore, the Celtics getting points, at home, seems like a really good value. The reason for this value is that since winning it season opener (112-95 over Philadelphia), Boston has lost three straight. Two of those defeats came at the hands of San Antonio and Toronto. The other was Wednesday, a 2-point loss at Indiana as a road favorite. The result of this is that the market has shifted too far against Brad Stevens' team.  Washington is 3-1 SU and off a buzzer-beating victory over San Antonio, at home, Wednesday night.  Such a high profile win is likely to attract extra attention from the public, so we have a bit of a "double whammy" here as the home team is undervalued and the road team overvalued.

The Wizards needed a 36-point fourth quarter to overcome the Spurs Weds night. It was a wild game as they jumped out to a 19-2 advantage right out of the gate, only for San Antonio to counter w/ a 28-5 run of their own.  While it's tough to decipher anything from that kind of inconsistency, what's not up for dispute is that Washington's defense has been subpar.  Twice they have allowed 113+ points this season. They have allowed 50+ in the first half of every game.  While they have a 3-1 SU record, all three wins have come by five points or less.  In road games where the O/U line falls into the 205 to 209.5 point range, they are just 3-9 straight up (L3 seasons).   It will be interesting to see how they fare against a Celtics team that's averaging 30 PPG in the fourth quarter this year.

Slow starts have hurt Boston so far (19 PPG in the first quarter).  So has a poor overall shooting percentage of 40.2% (28th in the league). You have to figure both of those numbers will start to go up.  Defensively, as expected, the team has been solid, limiting its foes to 41.5 percent shooting, even though they are giving up 100.7 points per game.  They held Indiana to just 38.5% shooting Wednesday, but turnovers really killed the Celtics as they had 19 of them, which were converted into 22 Pacers' points. Fortunately, Boston is 26-17 ATS when off 3+ losses the L3 seasons, so I see them bouncing back here at home tonight. 8* Boston

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): Charlotte is just 2-19 SU all-time vs. the Mavericks, including 0-11 here in Dallas. All trends are eventually due to regress, but this one won't be doing so tonight as I think the Mavs are a) being undervalued and b) due for a big bounce back. Tuesday saw them lose their home opener, to Toronto, 102-91 as two-point dogs. Their only other loss this year was to the Clippers, a game where I nailed the Under. The Hornets have played hard this year, but suffice to say Tuesday's 130-105 beatdown of the Bulls (at home) was more "blip" than "trend" as in the first three games they'd failed to top 94 points. Offense has been an issue under HC Steve Clifford and I just don't think the visitors will have enough in the tank to stay with the home favorites tonight. Lay the points.

To give you some reference, Dallas checked in as a 9.5-pt favorite when they hosted Charlotte last year. I'm not convinced that the market shifting this much is justified. Tuesday against Toronto was a much closer game than the final score indicated as it was a one-point contest heading into the fourth quarter when the Mavs would go on to shoot a pretty woeful 6 of 22 from the floor. One issue right now is the minutes restriction on Chandler Parsons (offseason knee injury), although I think it's unfair to pin the loss to the Raptors solely on that. One reason I think that the Mavs are undervalued coming into this season is that they were actually one of the worst ATS teams in the league last year (35-48-4), which means a likely "market correction" is coming. Plus there's a perception that the team has "fallen off" (did win 51 games LY!), which may be true, but I'm not sure to the degree that's being called for.

After shooting below 41 percent from the floor in each of their first three games, the Hornets were at 51.6% in Tuesday's breakout performance over Chicago. I think it's very likely that we'll see a drastic falloff tonight. Consider that in 13 of the past 14 meetings w/ Dalllas, Charlotte has been held below 100 points. That includes 80.5 PPG in last season's two defeats. Though the Hornets have been historically profitable in this price range, on the road, they fail tonight. 10* Dallas

8* Philadelphia (8:05 ET):  At the start of the season, this line would have made sense, but I've had to downgrade Milwaukee due to a 1-3 SU/ATS start that's seen them get blown out twice. You'll recall I played against them in their first game, the result there being a 122-97 loss to a Knicks team that was perceived to be among the league's worst coming into the year.  This is a banged up Bucks team right now w/ several players missing time and really it shouldn't be too much of a surprise to see them regress in the early going as this was a team that improved its win total by 26 games last year while covering the spread over 55% of the time. Surprisingly, they went 23-9 ATS as favorites, but this year figures to find them laying points more often and in this case bigger numbers than we're accustomed to seeing. Take the points.

It took getting 13 points at home, but the 76ers did leave w/ the cash for the first time this season, Monday against Cleveland. They did actually lead in the game, by as many as 15 points in fact and by five at halftime. The far better team eventually took over, but Milwaukee isn't Cleveland and doesn't have LeBron James.  On the bright side for Philadelphia, top draft choice Jahlil Okafor scored 20+ points for the second time in three games.  The team should be able to take advantage of a Milwaukee defense that has been beyond atrocious, giving up 110.5 points per game to this point. The Sixers are on a very impressive 60-33 ATS run as road dogs in the +9.5 to +12 range. 

Milwaukee has been a banged up team to this point and while they're getting healthier (Jabari Parker is back), I still don't like them in this price range. They only got by Brooklyn, who is in contention to be the league's second worst team (admittedly, ahead of the Sixers), by seven points Monday. Now they did sweep Philly last year (4-0) and are 6-1 SU/ATS the past seven meetings overall. But the Bucks are just 18-33 ATS as home favorites in that same 9.5 to 12 pt range. With a relatively lower total, points should be at somewhat of a premium here, making grabbing the big number the way to go. 8* Philadelphia

10* LA Lakers (10:35 ET):  Coming into the year, the fact that Kobe Bryant and the Lakers are terrible seemed to be lost on no one but the guilty party itself, but the reality seems to becoming more and more apparent "in-house" after a dreadful 0-3 SU/ATS start. Said Bryant after a dreadful 3 of 15 shooting performance against the Mavs on Sunday, "I freaking suck." I'm inclined to agree w/ that assessment, however, I do believe the team itself is a good value tonight as it's actually not being asked to lay points against a Denver side that simply isn't much better. Sure, the Nuggets are perfect against the spread as a road favorite of three points or less the last two seasons, but it's a small sample size (5-0 ATS) that's due to regress as is the team's three-game SU/ATS win streak here in LA against the Lakers.

With both teams having lost to Minnesota already this season, right now you would have to project these two to be the worst teams in the Western Conference. The fact that Denver checks in as a road favorite seems to be an overreaction to the Lakers.  After opening the season w/ a surprising 20-point win in Houston (a team that also struggled out of the gate), the Nuggets have been blown out in B2B games, losing by a total of 41 points to the T'wolves and Thunder. This is a total rebuild in the Rocky Mountains and it certainly doesn't help that the team looks like it will be down several contributors for tonight's matchup. Wilson Chandler and Jusuf Nurkic have yet to take the court this season and Joffrey Lauvergne & Nikola Jokic are both dealing with back injuries. If none of those names sound familiar to you, then you probably gain a sense of what a sorry state this franchise is in right now. Will Barton (who?) shared the team-lead in scoring in Sunday's loss.  Rookie Emmanuel Mudiay (#7 overall DC) will likely lead the league in turnovers at his current pace.

As bad as Bryant has been, he is at least capable of breaking out for a good game or two. I believe there to be far more talent on this Lakers' roster than that of the Nuggets. Bryant himself may very well end up holding it back, but I can see him having a good game here in what could be a high-scoring, wide open game w/ little defense played on either side.  Denver was a dreadful road team last season (11-30 SU), so the Lakers should be given more credit for having the homecourt edge. 10* LA Lakers

8* Indiana (7:35 ET):  Before the year started, I projected the 8-seed in the Eastern Conference to be a three-horse race between Central Division rivals Milwaukee (who made the playoffs last year), Indiana and Detroit.  Early returns have the Pistons currently sitting in the "pole position" as they are 3-0 SU (and ATS) while their two rivals both opened 0-3 SU/ATS. The Bucks won last night though and now I feel it's time for the Pacers to get out of the box as they find themselves catching a generous number this evening in the Motor City. This will be the first time this season that Detroit is being asked to lay points, a role that has been unkind to them previously, especially here at home where they've gone just 5-14 ATS in the -3.5 to -6 range the past two seasons. I'm taking the points here.

Indiana had played somewhat of a tough schedule to open the season as they had to play three good teams in four-day span.  They were absolutely hammered Halloween night, at home, by Utah as the final score there was 97-76. Rebounding and shooting have been the two primary issues thus far for the Pacers, but it's hard to imagine they'll play a worse game than what we saw Saturday where they scored just 27 points in the second half. This is a different Indiana team than past years w/ a remade roster and approach.  Monta Ellis has struggled in the early going, but should get better. They should also cut down on the number of turnovers (44 last 2 games) as 24 of them led to 30 Utah points.  I just don't think this team is as bad as its looked in the early going.

Nor do I think Detroit is as good as its looked in its first three games. They've actually been outshot in every game this season, so despite the nice-looking defensive numbers, the offense still needs a lot of work.  Two of the team's wins have been by five points or less, including a 98-94 overtime victory over Chicago on Friday. Overall, the Pistons are shooting just 38.7 percent from the floor, which is pretty bad, as is their 67 percent free throw shooting.  I'll call for a little progression/regression to the mean Tuesday night as the disappointing team gets the cash at the expense of its surprising counterpart. 8* Indiana

8* Memphis (10:35 ET): Golden State has certainly picked up from where it left off last year as the defending NBA Champs have opened 3-0 SU/ATS with all three victories coming by double digits. Two were against New Orleans and the other at Houston, two teams that are combined 0-6 SU/ATS right now. That's certainly worth noting as is the fact that Steph Curry has been carrying the load with 39.3 points per game, including 53 Saturday night against the Pelicans.  He was a ridiculous 17 of 27 from the field in that game, 8 of 14 from three-point range, so a dropoff here is all but inevitable. I think the Grizzlies will be the Warriors' toughest test to date and come into Monday night's matchup undervalued. Take the points.

Houston and New Orleans were two of the Western Conference teams the Warriors ousted on their way to the NBA Finals. Memphis was the other and of the three gave Golden State their toughest test. They beat them twice, including an upset as 10-pt dogs here at Oracle Arena. That was one of just THREE home losses for the Warriors in their last 50 games here! The loss of Mike Conley really hurt the Grizzlies in that particular series and he led the team in scoring w/ 22 points in Saturday's win over Brooklyn. It was an ugly start to the season for the Grizz as they got blown out at home by Cleveland, but they've responded w/ B2B victories by a combined 19 points. This is the first time they are getting points this season.

Had Memphis been more competitive against the Cavaliers, then I don't think this line would be nearly as high. It was just one game and it should be pointed out that the Grizzlies were blown out at home by the Cavaliers last year as well, so it may simply be a case of "bad matchup."  Golden State covered an impressive 57.6 percent of their games en route to last year's NBA title (tied for 3rd best ATS record in the league), so at some point there HAS to be some "market correction," right?  I'll call for the linesmakers to "catch up with them" here as defensively there were some major issues against the Pelicans that got lost in the impressive offensive performance from Curry.  8* Memphis

8* Under Spurs/Knicks (7:35 ET):  The Knicks are a surprising 2-1 and have topped 100 pts in every game so far, which had led to a 3-0 Over mark as well. Tonight, they host a San Antonio team that finds itself in the second game of back to backs after winning 95-87 in Boston yday. It was the Spurs' second consecutive game holding an Eastern Conference foe below 90 points.  These teams have combined to go Over the total in all four matchups the last two seasons, but it's looking like we have more than just a little bit of line value here as the O/U lines for LY's two matchups were just 190.5 and 194.5 respectively. One of those went to overtime as well.  I'm on the Under here.

Strangely, New York has been getting the job done despite the absence of starting point guard Aaron Afflalo. They haven't necessarily shot the ball "lights out" in any one game w/ their highest overall field goal percentage being 47.7 percent, their last time out, which resulted in a 117-110 victory at Washington. Carmelo Anthony was the real standout there, scoring 37 points on 11 of 18 shooting, including 4 of 5 from three-point range. He also went 11 of 12 from the free throw line.  A repeat performance here is unlikely. No other player scored more than 14 points against the Wizards. Following an Over streak of three consecutive games, the Knicks are 15-7 Under the previous two seasons.

In the last two games, San Antonio has allowed just 81 points per game on 37.7 percent shooting.  That's obviously a difficult pace to maintain. But, thankfully, we have quite the margin for error here.  The Spurs are 23-16 Under when playing in the second of back to back games the L2 seasons and even though the Knicks have allowed an average of 111 PPG the L2 games, I think we'll see the San Antonio offense struggle a little bit w/o rest.  You also never know how Greg Popovich will play this spot as his veteran players like Tim Duncan may very well see limited action.  The team has actually struggled in the past here at MSG, losing here three of the past four seasons. Also, don't forget Anthony will likely face a tough assignment being guarded by Kawhi Leonard. 8* Under Spurs/Knicks

10* Over Cavs/Sixers (7:05 ET):  Cleveland came up just short in an Over play I had their last game, versus Miami. They have now gone Under in all three games this year after leading the league in that department in 2014-15.  However, offensively they should feel very little resistance tonight against lowly Philadelphia, who has been blown out in both games to this point. All three meetings between these two last year stayed Under, but we've got a low number tonight.  After shooting poorly from three-point range (6 for 21!) against the Heat, I expect a much better performance from distance here from the Cavaliers, who were one of the league's better teams in that department last season. Take the Over.

Now, for this one to go Over the total, we will need Philadelphia to do something offensively. Improving upon their dreadful showing vs. Utah on Friday is paramount. There, the Sixers finished w/ only 71 points (a league low so far) on 30.2 percent shooting.  The fact that performance came here at home makes it all the more embarrassing. The starting five combined for just 41 points on 11 of 43 shooting.  Five players did finish w/ 10+ points, but none had more than 12! As abysmal as that may be, there's only one way a team can go from there and it's obviously up.  Playing w/ exactly two days rest, the 76ers are 12-5 Over the previous two seasons.

Defensively, they gave up 112 points in the season opener, to Boston, who doesn't have nearly the offensive firepower that Cleveland possesses. LeBron James hasn't even really had to do much thus far, though he did tally a very efficient 29 points in Friday's win over Miami.  Kevin Love has looked very good as well and even w/ both Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert injured, this year's team looks a lot deeper than the one that made it to the Finals a year ago.  Like Philadelphia, Cleveland has been an Over team when taking the floor w/ exactly two days rest, going 17-8 in that situation. Cavs' opponents are barely even shooting 40 percent to this point and as bad as the Sixers are, they should be able to top that benchmark tonight, which will help push this one Over the total. 10* Over Cavs/Sixers

10* New Orleans (7:35 ET):  This is an early revenge spot for the Pelicans, who lost on Opening Night, 111-95 at Golden State. I was on them there & it's one of just two losses I've suffered so far this NBA season. So, it's a bit of a revenge spot for me as well! Needless to say, 0-2 was not how 1st year HC Alvin Gentry envisioned starting the season when taking this job. After losing to the Warriors, his team was blown out the following night, 112-94 in Portland, by a team that had lost four of its five starters from last season. But now the Pellies find themselves in a somewhat advantageous spot, at home, hosting a Warriors team playing in the second night of back to backs. Take the points.

Of course, not only does New Orleans have revenge from Tuesday night, but also from LY's playoffs when they were swept in the first round by eventual NBA champion Golden State. Overall, the Warriors have now taken 11 of the last 12 meetings between these two teams.  Superstar Anthony Davis did not play well in the opener.  He shot a woeful 4 of 20 from the field and 10 of his 18 points came at the FT line. Naturally, you would expect him to play better here. He had 25-10 Wednesday vs. the Blazers, but that wasn't nearly enough as the team fell into an almost insurmountable 43-18 hole at the end of the first quarter. Davis, as noted in previous analysis, has expanded his repertoire to include a three-point shot and made three from behind the arc against Portland.

It's not like Golden State shot the ball lights out in the season opener. They were just 42.7% overall from the field and missed 21 of 30 three-point attempts. Save for Steph Curry, who scored 40 points, the rest of the team shot just 27 of 70 (38.5%) and was 4 for 18 from behind the arc. Last night saw the Warriors blow out the Rockets on the road, 112-92, but that appears to have come w/ some "casualties" as Klay Thompson could only play 24 minutes due to a back injury. This being the second game of a back to back, you'd expect his minutes to be further limited tonight. Andrew Bogut is also out from a concussion sustained in the season opener and of course HC Steve Kerr remains MIA. The Pelicans are 46-35 ATS at home the L2 years, including 8-4 as a dog of 3.5 to 6 pts. 10* New Orleans

10* Sacramento (10:05 ET):  I can't imagine that too many people will be interested in laying this many points w/ a Kings team that dropped its season opener, but hosting a terrible Lakers squad that still receives far too much public backing is one of the select times doing so is justifiable.  Remember, the Lakers couldn't even beat Minnesota at home in their opener. For Sacramento, this is a drop in class after playing the far superior LA team Wednesday night. Turnovers put them into an early hole too big to climb out of against the Clippers, but the Kings still competed for four quarters and ended up basically playing the Clips even over the final 36 minutes.  Coaching doesn't always mean a ton in the NBA, but George Karl over Byron Scott is a massive mismatch.  Again, don't be afraid to lay the points here!

Those thinking that the return of a healthy Kobe Bryant to the Lakers lineup will lead to any kind of drastic improvement are fooling themselves.  Kobe is officially "over the hill" now, yet he continues to take far too many shots at the expense of his teammates.  He missed 16 of 24 in the opener, including 10 of 13 from three-point range and his final eight overall.  Perhaps equally worrisome was the poor debut of rookie PG D'Angelo Russell, who finished with just 4-3-2 in his first game as a pro.  By the end of the game, he wasn't even playing point guard, which is supposed to be his position w/ the team. Again, the Lakers just lost to a Minnesota team that won only 16 games last season, at home, and shot just 9 for 35 from three-point range! A clear case can be made that this once-proud organization is the worst team in the entire Western Conference.

Sacramento has a "uniquely" built roster to say the least, but at least there's some reasons for optimism here. The Kings did take three of the four matchups w/ the Lakers last year, including both here at home.  Overall, they are 6-2 SU the last eight times hosting the Lakers while averaging 105.2 PPG on 48.2 percent shooting. Boogie Cousins will be the best player on the floor Friday night and his increased range (made 4 of 5 3pt attempts Weds!) is a great sign. Did I mention that the Lakers are also awful defensively?  10* Sacramento

8* Toronto (7:35 ET): While these teams finished 1-2 in the Atlantic Division last season, they were actually miles apart at the betting window as the upstart Celtics finished with one of the top five ATS records in the league while the first place Raptors languished far behind at just 43.5%, also seeing their season end via a first round sweep. Coming into this season, I feel there being a "groundswell" of support for Boston to overtake Toronto in the division, but I'm not sure I buy into that as a pretty large gap existed between the two last year (nine games) and it remains to be seen if the superstar-less Celtics have upgraded their roster to the degree some think they have. This was a sub-.500 team, after all, last year.

Both teams opened 2015-16 w/ a win, each in the home favorite role.  Toronto beat Indiana, 106-99 (-5.5), after erasing an early 10-point first quarter deficit. They scored 69 points after halftime and all but one starter finished w/ 14+ points. That was a much more difficult opponent that they had to deal with, compared to Boston, who hosted lowly Philadelphia and won 112-95 (-12.5).  The Celtics also fell into an early first quarter hole, but the fact that their bench outscored their 76ers counterparts 67-15 quickly nullified that.  Something else to consider is that Boston actually had a losing record here at home last season.

As division rivals, these teams played four times last year and three of the games were very close, decided by three points or less. Boston won two of those, by a combined three points, but my own personal power rankings say they are overvalued coming into this first meeting of 2015-16 and this line should be closer to a pick 'em.  There will likely be a great deal of focus on Amir Johnson now being on the Celtics (former Raptor), but don't discount the addition of DeMarre Carroll to the Raptors, as he should improve them on the defensive end. Having lost 21 of their previous 25 visits to Boston, Toronto is likely "due" to turn things around.  Take the points. 8* Toronto

10* Over Heat/Cavaliers (7:05 ET):  This matchup is being televised on ESPN and the pairing will obviously always carry special meaning as it's LeBron James vs. his former team. This is also the Cavs' home opener and you better believe that Cleveland will be rocking, however, I'm a little leery to lay the points w/ them after they (surprisingly) checked in as dogs for each of their first two games (covered both). Instead, I'm looking at the total and what is also surprising is that this Cavs team was the top Under bet in the league last year (42-58-2 including playoffs), plus have opened this season w/ a pair of Unders as well. That's led to this total being too low, in my opinion, as I expect plenty of points tonight in this one. Take the Over.

Miami wasn't too far behind Cleveland in the Under department last season at 46-36 (remember, they failed to make the playoffs), but the difference is that they opened 2015-16 w/ an Over, beating Charlotte 104-94 at home Wednesday night. The Heat shot the ball ridiculously well, from all ranges, as they were 60% from three-point range, 95.2% (21 of 22) from the free throw line and 49.2 percent overall. While it's difficult to imagine them duplicating those numbers again tonight, Wednesday's performance was so impressive that as long as the decrease isn't too severe, the offensive numbers will still look good.  Miami certainly is unlikely to play as poorly as Memphis did against the Cavs Weds night as they scored just 76 points on horrific 35.4% shooting. The Grizz missed 16 of 18 three-point attempts.

Cleveland looked absolutely outstanding in that 30-point win in Memphis and perhaps the most remarkable part of it was that LeBron James played only 31 minutes and finished w/ just 12 points.  His numbers are almost certain to go up here, probably significantly, so that will counteract any dropoff from a bench unit that combined to score an impressive 50 points vs. the Grizzlies. The Cavs are one of the more lethal teams from three-point range in the league, but have been leaving a lot of points at the free throw line thus far. The Over is 12-4 the L2 seasons when they are a home fave of -6.5 to -9, almost all of those games coming last year.  10* Over Heat/Cavaliers

10* Under Mavs/Clippers (10:35 ET): Both of these teams won on the road last night and both games went Over the respective totals. Dallas, who I had, thumped Phoenix by a score of 111-95 in a game where they opened as 4.5-pt underdogs. Incredibly, eight players scored in double figures as they built a lead as big as 28 points in the fourth quarter! They shot over 47% for the game and were 10 of 21 on three-point attempts. Meanwhile, the Clippers also scored 111 points in their win over Sacramento, where the final margin was significantly closer (7 points) despite their overall shooting percentage of 52.5 percent. Emotions should be high here (due to the DeAndre Jordan situation) and I expect plenty of intensity, not to mention an across the board decline offensively due to this being the second night of back to backs for both squads.  Take the Under.

In the interest of full disclosure, the last seven times these teams have played, the Over has cashed every time.  The last meeting, back in March, saw the Mavs shoot a preposterous 60.7 percent from the field in a 30-point (129-99 win) that ranked as one of their best performances all season. But that was a home game. On the road, Dallas saw its offensive numbers slip, somewhat significantly, last year. That didn't stop me from taking them against a team like Phoenix last night, but this is a step up in class. Also, while it's only October, the Mavs are pretty beat up right now w/ Chandler Parsons (knee) out for this game and Deron Williams and Wes Matthews both battling injuries.

The Clippers, like the Mavs, aren't likely to play as well offensively here as they did last night. While the same core from last year is back, LA is breaking in a number of new players and that can lead to some growing pains.  The team they played last night (Sacramento) is typically awful on the defensive end and this is clearly a much tougher matchup, even at home.  They are 14-8 Under the total as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points the L3 seasons. Neither team went Over the respective totals last night by any kind of significant margin; in fact both games went Over by just three points thanks to relatively high-scoring fourth quarters and plenty of late free throw shooting. 10* Under Mavs/Clippers

8* Dallas (10:05 ET):  Most NBA experts have seven teams (Warriors, Spurs, Thunder, Clippers, Rockets, Grizzlies, Pelicans) penciled in for the playoffs. The two matching up here are expected to battle for that eighth and final spot (w/ Utah as well).  I think that the projected regression in Dallas is too severe though. Remember that this team won 50 games last season before injuries and the unwanted presence of Rajon Rondo took their toll heading into the playoffs.  I don't think they'll be nearly as bad as the projections (just 37 wins!) are calling for. On the bright side, that makes them undervalued for tonight's season opener against a Suns team that I do have declining in 2015-16.  Take the points.

Phoenix has been in NBA limbo for the past few seasons, a terrible place to be, as they haven't been good enough to make the playoffs in the loaded Western Conference but also haven't been bad enough to get into position to add a key piece via the Draft Lottery.  Simply put, this is a team at a crossroads entering this season.  The West is only getting stronger and I don't see the Suns as being any better.  Therefore, it would be wise to simply do a good old fashioned "teardown." The Morris twins have been split up, which may leave holdover Markieff angry, and the lone free agent acquisition was 33-year old Tyson Chandler. Defensively, this team was quite poor last season, allowing 103.3 points per game. 

Dallas isn't going to blow things up, not as long as Mark Cuban is running the show, and despite a (very) disappointing offseason (spurned by DeAndre Jordan), I'm not convinced this team is significantly worse compared to last season.  They swapped out Rondo for Deron Williams, a Dallas native, which is clearly a net gain.  It does appear that Chandler Parsons won't play tonight, but new SG Wesley Matthews will.  Of course, there's Dirk Nowitzki as well and while he has plenty of "tread on the tires" (18th season!), he leads what is still one of the league's better offenses (105.5 PPG last year). The Mavs were shockingly one of the worst ATS teams in the league last year (35-48-4) and come into 2015-16 undervalued as a result.  8* Dallas

10* New York (8:05 ET):  These teams experienced drastically different 2014-15 campaigns. Milwaukee snuck up on everybody, improving by 26 wins and going 55.3% against the spread (47-38-3) en route to a surprise playoff berth. The Knicks, on the other hand, were a complete disaster. They went a money burning 34-46-2 ATS at the betting window, the worst such mark in the entire Eastern Conference, and finished w/ the second worst overall (SU) record in the league at 17-65. However, the return of Carmelo Anthony (injured most of last season) and the arrival of #4 overall DC (Kristaps Porzingis) brings hope for improvement and I do think this downtrodden franchise comes into the year undervalued, especially in this spot against a Bucks team that's likely to slightly regress. Take the points.

Milwaukee won't have two of its key players tonight. One is Jabari Parker, last year's top draft choice, who of course missed most of last season due to injury anyway.  However, the other is Giannis Antetokounmpo, the so-called "Greek Freak" and that's significant.  He averaged 12.7 points and 6.7 rebounds per game a season ago.  Remember that this was only a .500 team last season and they have some new pieces, so it could take a little bit of time to gel.  Furthermore, you have to put things in perspective. The Bucks were not favored in the vast majority of their games last season and actually closed on a 1-8 ATS run when favored by six or more points.  That includes a non-cover against these Knicks plus three outright losses.  Safe to say, they're coming into the year a tad bit overvalued.

The Knicks lost all four meetings last year w/ the Bucks. Their one trip to Milwaukee saw them play w/ Anthony and resulted in only a four-point loss. It's important to note that the season really nose-dived once Anthony "shut it down" and I expect him to have a solid bounce back campaign here. He's had plenty of past success here at the Bradley Center, averaging 29.6 PPG, his highest output in any arena. The offense showed signs of picking up the pace in the preseason and despite not having starting PG Aaron Afflalo here, their offensive efficiency should be improved. 10* New York

8* New Orleans (10:35 ET):  This is a big revenge spot for the Pelicans, who suffered a four-game sweep at the hands of the eventual NBA Champs in last year's playoff. That series was far more competitive than a sweep might otherwise indicate, however, as they actually led the Warriors by 20 points after three quarters in Game 3 before blowing that lead and eventually bowing out the next game.  But w/ Anthony Davis (league's best player?) and a new coach, this team figures to be better in 2015-16 and despite seven straight losses at Oracle Arena (1-14 SU L15 vs. GSW overall!), I see them being very competitive in tonight's season opener.  Furthermore, how many times have we seen a team celebrating a championship win from the previous year suffer a letdown once the game gets going? Take the points here.

Golden State retained its entire core from a 67-win campaign, but will be w/o their head coach, Steve Kerr (back surgery), for the foreseeable future.  That leaves the unproven Luke Walton (!) in charge on an interim basis. Of course, it would have been Alvin Gentry manning the ship had he not decided to take over as HC in New Orleans! Gentry's knowledge of the "inner-workings" of the Warriors should prove to be critical for tonight's matchup.  Again, history shows this has been a very tough spot for teams that won the NBA Finals the previous year as they are just 5-8 ATS on Opening Night (San Antonio failed to cover last year) the L13 seasons as the ring ceremony often times serves as a distraction and causes the home team to come out flat. 

While the Warriors might enter the year as the best team, New Orleans will have the best player on the court Tuesday night in the form of Anthony Davis, who just may supplant LeBron James as the league's top player this season.  He shot 54 percent from the floor against Golden State in the playoffs last year, averaging 31.0 points per game.  He ranked 4th in the league in PPG a year ago, while leading all players in blocks and finishing in the top eight in FG%, rebounds and double doubles. Look for the Pelicans to stay within the generous number on Opening Night. 8* New Orleans

10* Over Pistons/Hawks (8:05 ET):  Atlanta is being projected for one of the steepest declines in the league this year. A 60-win club a year ago (top seed in the East), linesmakers are projecting them to win only about 50 times in 2015-16.  One of the primary reasons for that is the loss of their top defender, DeMarre Carroll.  The team allowed just 94.7 points per game at home last year, a number that will be awfully difficult to duplicate this season. Though the opponent was Cleveland, we saw how the Hawks struggled defensively w/o Carroll in the Eastern Conference Finals.  Against a team like Detroit, who now will be looking to push the pace, I see the Over cashing in the season opener Tuesday night.

The Pistons did not shoot the ball well at all last season as they were at 43.2 percent overall, one of the lowest marks in the entire league (only three teams were worse).  They should be better this year offensively, but just how much is up for debate.  One thing is for certain and that's this was a much better team after they dumped Josh Smith, going .500 after his release and they were eighth in the league offensively over the final 16 games. Much of the credit there goes to Reggie Jackson, who meshed well w/ the team's best player, Andre Drummond.  It's clear now that HC Stan Van Gundy has remade this roster in a similar fashion to his previous (successful stint) in Orlando. While it's "only Preseason," the Pistons did just drop 115 points on the Hawks in the finale on Friday.

The last four times these teams have met in Atlanta, the Under has cashed.  That includes two games last year where they combined for just 188 and 175 total points.  But this one should be different.   The Pistons were awful at shooting the basketball in those two losses, making a combined 36.4 percent of all attempts, including a horrible 13 of 56 from three-point range.  Even the Hawks, one of the league's better three-point shooting clubs (thanks to Kyle Korver) were only 14 of 54 from behind the arc in those same two games, which is very uncharacteristic.  The Pistons left a ton of points on the board last year at the FT line, something that can easily be corrected. Atlanta averaged 102.4 PPG at home last year.  10* Over Pistons/Hawks

10* Over Warriors/Cavaliers (9:05 ET):  Ok, let's try this AGAIN.  Game 5 resulted in a brutal push for most bettors on the total.  There was an interesting "shift" of opinion when it came to the O/U for the game as most early bets were on the Under while late the money poured in on the Over.  I was on the latter to no avail as the total is now 1-4-1 for the series and the one Over came as a product of overtime. But the pace of play has gradually picked up w/ each passing game and had it not been for NINE missed free throws by Andre Iguodala Sunday, we would have had our first Over in regulation.  At home, I expect Cleveland's role players to shoot better and don't be surprised if tonight ends up being the highest scoring game of the series.

Game 5 was 51-50 at the half (in favor of Golden State), so at that point we were on pace for an Over despite a very slow start to the game. But a 39-point third quarter then put things in doubt. Still though, had Iguodala gone just 3 for 11 from the free throw line, the Over would have hit.  For the game, there were 20 missed free throws total, which is obviously quite frustrating.  Also, the Cavs have now shot below 40 percent from the field in three of the five games in the series. Only once have they been better than 42%, which was Game 3 (46.1%) here at home. This is a team that averages 103.3 PPG at home this year thanks in large part to 38.1 percent shooting from three-point range. Even if they have to be carried by LeBron James (again), the Cavs are in line for a better performance at the offensive end tonight. 

Of course, Golden State is the top scoring team in the league (108.6 PPG) and they've now broken 100 pts in B2B games.  After a slow start to the series, MVP Steph Curry is back in rhythm, and had 37 pts in Game 5.  The team shot 50 percent overall and 46.2 percent from three-point range.  Both teams are now going small, which is going to lead to a faster pace.  But the key here will be Cleveland getting production out of players not named LeBron. Matthew Dellavedova and Iman Shumpert (starting backcourt) were a combined 5 for 18 from the field in Game 5. After a strong start, JR Smith didn't score over the final 33 minutes. 10* Over Warriors/Cavs

8* Cleveland (9:05 ET):  Despite being short-handed and off B2B losses, I can't see the Cavs going down w/o a fight as Game 5 (at Golden State) was a one-point contests w/ less than five minutes remaining and for the most part this has been a very closely contested series. No team wants to lose the NBA Finals on its home court, therefore I'm going to take the points in this situation as I think the underdog Cavs are being undervalued at home w/ their season on the line. LeBron James is having an all-time great series and if he can just get SOME contribution out of the supporting cast, then I see his team forcing a deciding Game 7 Friday night. The Cavs are 27-3 SU their L30 home games and one of those losses came w/o James.

Cleveland has struggled as an underdog this year, going just 8-16 SU/ATS, but the majority of those games were w/ James out of the lineup and they are 3-0 SU this postseason when trailing in a playoff series, plus 8-0 SU at home this year when the total is between 190 and 194.5 points.  Like Golden State going into Game 4, being off B2B losses is somewhat uncharted territory for the Cavaliers as this is the first time it's happened, other than a home & home w/ Boston late in the year when they rested James and other key players, since the long losing streak when James took time off to heal.  James is playing the best basketball of his career right now, averaging an other-worldly 36.6 PPG, 12.5 RPG and 8.8 APG in the Finals. 

But the Cavs' chances of staying alive and forcing a Game 7 hinge on players not named LeBron contributing as well.  The starting backcourt of Matthew Dellavedova and Iman Shumpert combined to go just 5 for 18 from the field in Game 5 and after a hot start, JR Smith didn't score over the game's final 33 minutes.  I did like HC David Blatt's decision to match Golden State and "go small" as it results in arguably their five best players all being on the floor at the same time.  The Cavs average over 103 PPG at home this year, thanks to 38 percent shooting from three-point range.  They will improve offensively tonight and I do give them a great shot at winning this game outright. 8* Cleveland

10* Over Cavaliers/Warriors (8:05 ET):  The Under would be 4-0 in this series had it not been for overtime in Game 1 and that's despite a massive dip in the total since that time. Curiously though, oddsmakers have posted a higher O/U line for Game 5 than the previous two games in Cleveland and for the first time in this series we're seeing the majority of bettors on the Under.  However, the number has actually gone up at most shops, indicating an influx of "smart money" on the Over here.  Yes, I was wrong the L2 games taking the Over (did have Cavs in Gm 2 & 3), but we get the elusive win here as it appears as if Golden State has found a successful formula to defeat the underdog Cavaliers. 

A Warriors' win (likely here) is more conducive to the Over cashing as they are the better offensive team and average a league-best 110.8 points per game at home.  We saw a massive change in the pace of play in Game 4 as HC Steve Kerr "went small" w/ his starting lineup (Andre Iguodala in for Andrew Bogut) and the decision worked as the team scored its most points in regulation in any game in the series and shot 46.8% including 12 of 30 from three-point range.  The Warriors are 14-4 Under in the playoffs and would be 6-0 Under vs. Cleveland this year (again if not for OT in Gm 1), but at some point things need to start going "the other way."  Consider the O/U line for the first two games here in Oakland were 204 and 199, so there is value here on the Over. 

Also, Cleveland can't possibly shoot any worse than it did in Game 4 when they made only 33 percent of all attempts, including a horrific 4 of 27 from three-point range.  That isn't even their lowest overall shooting percentage in a game this series (32.2 percent in Gm 2 - and they won!) and fatigue definitely appeared to be a factor Thursday night as HC David Blatt is using only a seven-man rotation w/ a heavy burden falling on LeBron James, who got next to no help from his supporting cast in the last game. If Golden State goes small again, Cleveland needs to use its size to its advantage and feast on second-chance opportunities. The Warriors are 6-4 Over this year after allowing 85 pts or less the previous game. I think tonight will easily mark the highest scoring game of the series.  10* Over Cavaliers/Warriors

10* Cleveland (9:05 ET):  I just don't get it.  Golden State remains the series favorite (although the odds are now much slighter) despite facing a 2-1 series deficit and are favored here on the road against a Cavs team that has won 27 of its last 29 games here at Quicken Loans Arena. With the anticipating of 'zig-zag' bettors coming in, the line is actually higher than what it was for Game 3 when Cleveland prevailed 96-91, a final score that is misleading in the sense that the Cavs never trailed.  In fact, Golden State has not led at the end of any quarter in this series (only at the end of OT in Gm 1) and has faced double digit deficits in all three games.  Therefore, I have no choice but to take the points w/ the team that has played better and is at home tonight. The Warriors are just 3-3 SU/ATS as a road favorite of 3 pts or less this season. 

As I pointed out before Gm 3, when the line for these two games in Cleveland were originally posted, the home team was listed as a 2.5-pt favorite. That's a pretty sizable swing, primarily owed to the absence of Kyrie Irving, but the Cavs have now won five of six w/ him out of the lineup.  Of course, having LeBron James on your roster allows you to overcome all sorts of personnel losses, which is what Cleveland is doing here. Through three games, James is averaging 41.0 points per game in the series, not to mention 12.0 rebounds and 8.3 assists.  He has clearly outplayed MVP Steph Curry in this series as Cleveland's other "star in the making" Matthew Dellavedova has done a yeoman's job defensively on Curry, save for the fourth quarter of the last game.  I understand that the Cavs are short-handed, but they also have the best player in the world on their roster and are at home.  They should not be getting points.

James' patience on the offensive end has completely frustrated the Warriors, who are being forced to play at a much slower pace than they desire.  Through three games, they've averaged just 97.3 PPG & that's w/ two overtime periods. As I've written before, Golden State's offensive numbers are down significantly in these playoffs (103.2 PPG) and would be down even further if not for the series w/ Houston, who is awful defensively.  The Cavs have been the top defensive team in these playoffs, allowing just 93.4 PPG, and they're allowing less than 30 percent shooting from three-point range.  Since Jan 15, Cleveland has only lost once on its home floor w/ James on the court.  The team is being severely undervalued. 10* Cleveland

8* Over Warriors/Cavs (9:05 ET):  The expectation here is that Golden State is due to "go off" based on a fourth quarter where they scored 36 pts Tuesday night. But what about Cleveland?  The Cavs have gotten away w/ shooting just 42.9% from the field in these playoffs and actually won Game 2 of the Finals despite 32.2 percent shooting overall.  They were predictably better at home in Game 3, shooting 46.1%, including 9 of 21 on three-point attempts.  This is a team that averages 103.8 PPG at home for the year and when you throw in Golden State's numbers on the offensive end, you have a total that looks too low, especially when compared to the number from Game 1, not to mention the two regular season matchups.   Take the Over.

Now obviously, the pace of play combined w/ Cleveland's amazing defense has played a significant factor in the declining O/U line.  Golden State has been held to an average of just 97.3 PPG - despite two overtime sessions - in this series.  They likely are due to see a rise in scoring and it appeared as if HC Steve Kerr was finally able to make an adjustment, inserting David Lee into the lineup during Game 3's frantic comeback.  At the same time though, Lee is a liability on the defensive end and I expect Cleveland to attack him.  If the pace of play does increase here from the previous three games, the Cavs can still score due to having James, who is averaging 41.0 PPG in the series.  He hasn't had much help, outside of Matthew Dellavedova, but role players tend to play better at home and I wouldn't be surprised to see a breakout game from the likes of JR Smith tonight.

Cleveland is 6-2 Over at home this season when the total is in the 190 to 194.5 range while this will only be the third time all season that a total for a Warriors game has been below 194 pts and both previous occurrences saw the game go Over the total.  When coming off B2B losses this season (only happened five times previously), Golden State has scored at least 100 pts every time, averaging 110 PPG.  I think we are clearly poised for the highest scoring game of the series tonight.  Meanwhile, only once has Cleveland been held below 100 pts three straight games since James came back from injury in mid-January.  8* Over Warriors/Cavs

10* Cleveland (9:05 ET):  While some subscribe to the notion of "right side = winning side," in my opinion that there can be no denying that Cleveland & Under were the right plays for both Games 1 and 2 of this year's NBA Finals.  While that combo resulted in a "double bad beat" in the series opener (due to overtime), it came through easily in Gm 2 as the Cavs again covered wire to wire (closed +7.5) throughout regulation and this time didn't relinquish the lead in extra time. The game also stayed Under by a double digit margin despite overtime.  More shocking is that Cleveland was able to win on the road despite shooting only 32.2 percent for the game. Now the series shifts to Quicken Loans Arena, where the Cavaliers have lost only twice since mid-January, and curiously Golden State has been bet to the role of favoritism. I've been on Cleveland in the first two games and am not willing to switch course yet as they easily could be up 2-0 in the series.

Before this series officially got underway, some books were willing to post lines for the first four individual games.  Originally, Cleveland was -2.5 for both Games 3 and 4.  So, with the public coming in on the Warriors here, you can see we're able to get some nice value on the Cavs as a home dog now and I wouldn't be shocked if the line was bet even further in Golden State's direction. It's a mistake by the public in my opinion as the only two games Cleveland has lost here at home since mid-January had extenuating circumstances. One was late in the regular season & all the top players (LeBron among them) were being rested. The other was Gm 1 of the Chicago series, which was off a long-layoff & the first game w/o Kevin Love. I understand that there's no Kyrie Irving anymore either, but we saw the overreaction in the line for Game 2 (opened +5.5) and the Cavs did win two games against Atlanta w/o Irving, remember.

As I've written about previously, the Cavaliers' defensive transformation in these playoffs has been nothing short of astounding.  Opponents, the Warriors included, are shooting less than 30 percent from three-point range.  Golden State averaged 111 points per game in the regular season at home, yet in the first two games of this series has been held to just 100.5 PPG despite the benefit of two overtimes.  At the same time, Cleveland is absolutely likely to shoot better than 32.2 percent overall now that they're back at home and let's not forget that despite the depleted roster, they still have the best player in the world on their roster. 10* Cleveland

10* Over Warriors/Cavs (9:05 ET):   Of the four times our two NBA finalists have met this season, every game has stayed Under in regulation.  Game 1 of the Finals went Over because of overtime (I was still able to cash the 1H Under), but even w/ an extra five minutes of play on Sunday, Game 2 stayed Under - by a double digit margin.  As a result, the linesmakers have dipped the Game 3 total significantly here and I feel it's time to respond accordingly.  This number is now a full nine points lower than what the Game 1 O/U line closed at, and to me, that screams value.  Golden State is 12-4-1 Under in all of its playoff games so far, but this number will be their lowest for any game this postseason save for the series clincher vs. Memphis (193) that went Over by double digits.  Cleveland is 6-1 Over this season at home when the total is between 190 and 194.5.  I like the Over for Game 3.

Despite shooting only 32.2 percent for the game Sunday night and being short-handed, the Cavaliers found a way to still win outright as a significant dog.  Returning home for Game 3, I think it's safe to assume they'll shoot better tonight, short-handed or not.  The key will be getting contributions from players not named LeBron James.  The general "rule" is that role players tend to perform much better at home than on the road, so I'm expecting more here from JR Smith & Iman Shumpert.  Those two were just 7 of 24 from the field in Game 2, not to mention Tristan Thompson went 0 for 5, so that's 22 total pts from three key players. Like Golden State, Cleveland is a good three-point shooting team as well; they're 38.5 percent from behind the arc at home this year.

As for Cleveland's three-point defense, which has been downright other-worldly in these playoffs (< 30%!), I think we're possibly reaching the point of unsustainability. MVP Steph Curry is coming off arguably his worst game of the season, one where he went 5 for 23 overall, including 2 for 15 from behind the arc.  As a team, the Warriors are just 18 for 62 from three-point range while Cleveland is 18 for 58.  James, who has scored 83 pts in the first two games, is likely to see his own shooting improve as well after missing 18 of 22 shots in the second half.  He needs 40 pts tonight to set the NBA Finals record for most points scored through three games.  10* Over Warriors/Cavs

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET):  Obviously, I'm not the first person to bring this up, nor will I be the last. But the underdog Cavs not covering Game 1 was the most brutal of beats as at no point during regulation were they "not in the money."  Despite taking the Warriors to OT Thursday night, the Game 2 line is now much higher, due to a variety of reasons.  Remember that when this number initially opened, it was at 5.5 w/ the linesmakers anticipating "zig zag players" coming in on Cleveland.  But now that the Cavs are w/o Kyrie Irving for the remainder of the series (not to to much Kevin Love!), the public has become far less enthusiastic about their chances moving forward. But considering how close Game 1 was for much of the way, I think the underdog is undervalued. 

Game 1 saw a very high percentage of bettors go out on a limb and take the Cavs on the money line.  That seemed a little ambitious.  But with Golden State now a more prohibitive favorite to take the game and the series, I would actually be LESS suprised if Cleveland won this game outright.   They did lead outright most of the way Thursday night and that was w/ LeBron James getting very little help from a supporting cast that has mostly played well this postseason.  So the fact that Kyrie Irving is no longer available isn't as big a concern as you might think considering the Cavs almost won w/ minimal contributions from him for much of these playoffs, including two games vs. Atlanta.

Cleveland is 14-0 straight up this year when playing w/ exactly two days rest.  Remember that this team has lost just three times in the playoffs, once in overtime and once at the buzzer.  Two of the three losses came after extended layoffs.   Though many think LeBron won't be able to maintain his level of play from the first game, I disagree. I full anticipate a big series from him and I expect the Cavs are going to make this a series.   Take the points. 10* Cleveland

10* Cleveland (9:05 ET):  So...not much has really happened since I decided to release this play a week ago. The number has stayed relatively the same, and while the fact the majority of the public money being on the Cavs should scare me, alas it does not.  While Golden State certainly deserves to be favored to win the series, by virtue of its 67-15 regular season record and hailing from the better conference, I don't think Cleveland is getting nearly enough respect. The series odds (Warriors greater than 2:1) are too lopsided for my tastes.  All the Cavaliers have done since January 15th is go 46-11 straight up & in the playoffs they actually own a slightly better point differential (+8.9 to +8.0 per game), not to mention they have one less loss compared to the Warriors.  Sure, you could argue that much of that has to do w/ coming out of the weaker Eastern Conference, but note that the Warriors did avoid what I felt would have been their two toughest opponents in the West - the Spurs & Clippers.  Take the points.

One big factor pointing in the Cavs' direction right now has been their defensive transformation. I cited this multiple times in playing them against the Hawks in the Conference Finals.  They have been the #1 defensive team in these playoffs, allowing just 92.5 points per game and opponents are shooting a ridiculously low 32.2 percent - for the year - from three point range when they are the road team. In the playoffs, they're holding teams to right around 30 percent from behind the arc, overall.  In five of the last seven games, they did not allow 90 points.  Now I know that's an unrealistic standard when facing Golden State, but consider that in the two rounds prior to facing the defensively inept Rockets, the Warriors often struggled to meet their regular season average on the offensive end of the floor.

Much of the focus for the series has centered around the star (LeBron) vs. the team (GSW).  I think this is doing a disservice to James' supporting cast, which has routinely stepped up throughout the playoffs. A healthy Kyrie Irving would be a huge luxury to have, but remember they did just sweep a 60+ win Hawks team w/o him really playing much of the series. LeBron still is the best player in basketball & I believe his three-point shooting is due to improve here in the Finals.  Also, he wasn't even in the lineup when the Cavs made their lone visit to Oakland in the regular season.  He went for 42-11-7 when he did play in Cleveland and the Cavs won that game, going away, 110-99.  This is going to be a much closer game and series than the current odds suggest.  10* Cleveland

10* Golden State (9:05 ET):  I had the Rockets in Game 4 as I felt the sense that the Warriors would sweep the series was far too overwhelming.  Plus, Houston was at home and coming off an embarrassing loss.  The Warriors did lose B2B games to Memphis in the last series, but I certainly don't see that happening here, nor do I see this game being particularly close.  Note there have been seven games in the NBA postseason that have been decided by 25 points or more.  Houston has lost three of them, including Game 3 at home. Admittedly, they were close in the first two games here in Oakland, but when you consider they couldn't win despite being spotted a 16-pt lead in Game 1 and trailed by as many as 17 in Game 2, the forecast doesn't look quite as rosy. Look for Golden State to advance to the NBA Finals w/ a big win tonight. 

With Cleveland winning last night, there is now a greater urgency on the Warriors to finish this series off, so that the Cavs won't have a significant edge in rest entering the Finals.  Fortunately, this game is at Oracle Arena where the Warriors are 45-3 SU this season and outscoring opponents by an average of 13.5 points per game. Remember that they have beaten Houston five times this season by double digits.   In selecting the Rockets for Game 4, I cited the fact that they were highly unlikely to repeat their 33.7 percent shooting from the previous game.  Now, the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot" as they are again highly unlikely to repeat their shooting from the previous game, only this time we're talking about a 56.6% clip.   Houston had 45 points at the end of the 1Q Monday, which is pretty ridiculous when you think about it, especially considering Golden State is a very good defensive team.

The Rockets have actually been outscored this postseason due to giving up an average of 111.1 points per game.  That's a far cry from the 96.7 PPG the Warriors are allowing in the playoffs.  Golden State has also set a new high for points scored in regulation three times in this series.  The 115 pts scored in Game 4 matched their high established in Game 3 and note in that game they attempted 30 fewer free throws and had to deal w/ the absence of MVP Steph Curry for an extended stretch.  Curry and the Warriors should be back to their "old selves" tonight.  10* Golden State

10* Under Hawks/Cavs (8:35 ET):  Cashing the Over in Game 3 was no problem here as it was a winning play even before the OT period hit as the teams combined for 208 pts in regulation, well above the 190 pt total. As I said in my analysis for that game, the oddsmakers made a massive adjustment in the O/U line from the previous two games, which saw numbers just south of 200. Of course, that adjustment came w/ good reason as the first two games of the series saw an average of only 185.5 total pts scored.  I was on the Under in Gm 1, and am going back that way tonight as the Cavs look to sweep the Hawks and advance to the NBA Finals.

The 104 pts allowed by the Cavaliers in Game 3 were their most in regulation in any game in these playoffs.  Previously, they had not allowed more than 101 in any playoff game.  They're allowing just 92.8 PPG in the postseason as this has become quite the defensive team ever since the trades for JR Smith, Iman Shumpert & Timofey Mozgov.  They actually rate as the best defensive team in the league in the playoffs and facing a banged up Hawks team that's w/o its top three-point shooter (Kyle Korver) seems an ideal way to continue that trend.  Over its last five games, Atlanta is shooting just 42.1 percent from the field & Sunday was the only time during that stretch they scored more than 95 points. They'd been held under 90 in three of the previous four. 

Because Game 3 was higher scoring than Games 1 & 2, the oddsmakers have adjusted accordingly. While not quite back to the "heights" of the first two games, tonight's O/U line is several points higher than where it closed for Game 3, thus creating a little additional value.   Cleveland has been an Under team all season (55-39-1 all games) and although LeBron James is certainly capable of carrying his team to a series sweep, I think it's the defense that will rule the day for the Cavs here.  They are 16-9 Under this season following a game where they allowed 105+ points and 23-11 Under following three or more consecutive wins.  10* Under Hawks/Cavs

8* Cleveland (8:35 ET):  Golden State missed on their chance for a Conference Finals sweep (I had Houston!), but I think the Cavaliers are in a much better position to pull off the feat here in the East as they are not only at home, but also got Atlanta's best shot the last game (only time I did NOT play Cleveland in the series) and lived to tell the story.  Whereas the Rockets were coming off an embarrassing loss in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals, the Hawks are coming off a crushing one, in overtime Sunday.  They lost by a total of 21 pts at home in the first two games, and neither were as close as the final score indicated. Despite being banged up themselves (Irving questionable, no Love), Cleveland has clearly emerged as the better team here, thanks primarily to having LeBron James.  Lay the points.

The 104 pts allowed by the Cavaliers in Game 3 were their most in regulation in any game in these playoffs.  Previously, they had not allowed more than 101.  They're allowing just 92.8 PPG in the postseason as this has become quite the defensive team ever since the trades for JR Smith, Iman Shumpert & Timofey Mozgov.  They actually rate as the best defensive team in the league in the playoffs and facing a banged up Hawks team that's w/o its top three-point shooter (Kyle Korver) seems an ideal way to continue that trend.  Over its last five games, Atlanta is shooting just 42.1 percent from the field & Sunday was the only time during that stretch they scored more than 95 points. They'd been held under 90 in three of the previous four.

LeBron James turned in another strong performance in Game 3, finishing w/ 37 pts, 18 rebounds and 13 assists, despite starting the game 0 for 10 from the field.  Atlanta failed to capitalize on James' early shooting woes, which is likely to cost them their season as it's highly unlikely that the best player in the world will start tonight's game in such poor form.  Cleveland has won six straight overall, allowing fewer than 90 pts four times, and going back to January 15th this is a team that has gone 45-11 straight up and lost at home just once, when all starters were resting.  This series is over.  8* Cleveland

8* Houston (9:05 ET): Though the Rockets did rally back from a 3-1 series deficit against the Clippers in the last round, coming back from an 0-3 hole is unprecedented. Over half of the time, series that start 3-0 end in a sweep and coming off a dreadful Game 3 performance, I imagine there will be little support for Houston here.  But I think it's important to remember they are still at home and this is the most points they've gotten for ANY game at the Toyota Center all season. While they have as many 25+ pt losses as every other team combined in the playoffs, the bottom line is that the Rockets are 14-4 ATS this year when coming off a double-digit defeat.  They also are 12-2 ATS off an outright loss as a favorite. That's right; they did close as chalk last game, which means it's a massive adjustment in the line for Game 4 (expected). As tough as it may be, take the points as that's where the value is.

Let's not forget that Houston only lost the first two games of the series by a total of five points.  Yes, I was on Golden State Saturday, but that had a lot to do w/ the fact that I though it was the Rockets receiving too much support.  Here, everyone is clearly off the Houston bandwagon, which often times (regardless of team or sport) is the appropriate time to jump on board.  It's now seven games against the Warriors w/o a win and five of them have been decided by double digits. That's obviously not good, but at some point a streak such as that has to be broken.  Facing elimination, you have to figure we will get the Rockets' best shot tonight. 

Golden State's defense does not get enough credit in my opinion, especially after holding a Houston team that had been averaging 110 PPG in the playoffs to only 80 the last game.  But offensive improvement from the Rockets is all but assured in this spot as they won't shoot only 33% from the field again or miss 20 of 25 three-point attempts.   Golden State is only 6-7 ATS in the playoffs and has seen its own offensive production decline.  Look for Houston to keep pace tonight and for this game to come down to the wire.  I'll even give the Rockets a shot at the outright upset. 8* Houston

10* Over Warriors/Rockets (9:05 ET): We finally had a game go Over in these Conference Finals last night and I think that regardless if Golden State finishes off the sweep here, tonight's Game 4 follows suit.  Honestly, it's pretty shocking to see the rate at which the Warriors have gone Under in the playoffs as they are now 9-1 Under L10.  They have scored 110+ though in two of the three games in this series, something they hadn't even done once in regulation the first two rounds. The offense definitely appeared to be back in Gm 3 as they finished w/ 115 pts, including 11 three-pointers, and Steph Curry led the way w/ 40 pts.  Now it's just a matter of Houston being able to follow suit and we can see our first (and only?) Over of the Western Conference Finals.

The Rockets were woeful in Game 3, shooting just 33.7% overall and missing 20 of 25 three-point attempts. The good news is that it would be almost impossible for them not to improve upon those numbers tonight.  Previously, they'd been held to 85 pts or less just three times this season. Only two of those games occurred in 2015 and following them the Rockets averaged 116 points per game.  They also have not been held under 100 pts in three consecutive games since the end of January and even during that stretch they scored 99 pts twice.  Remember that last round saw them get held below 100 pts in B2B losses to the Clippers and they followed that up by scoring 124 pts, facing elimination. 

Golden State has no such offensive issues to concern itself with and it is likely that they'll "get theirs" tonight.  They average 109.1 PPG and are facing a defense that is allowing 110.8 PPG in the playoffs. The fact that the Warriors are scoring roughly six points per game fewer in the regular season than they did in the playoffs has more to do w/ playing Memphis in the last round than anything else. Houston, meanwhile, is averaging 108.1 PPG in the postseason and you have to remember that six of its seven games last round went Over despite consistently high totals.  There's been an adjustment by the linesmakers of roughly seven points from the Game 1 total, thus creating value. 10* Over Warriors/Rockets

10* Over Hawks/Cavaliers (8:35 ET):  Well, these Conference Finals matchups are turning out to be rather anti-climatic, no?  A Cavs-Warriors NBA Finals seems like a mere formality at this point as out West Golden State holds a commanding 3-0 series edge, while here in the East Cleveland took the first two games in Atlanta and now returns home w/ a chance to sweep. Because they were able to win w/o Kyrie Irving in Game 2 and Atlanta is now actually the more banged up team (no Kyle Korver), there's been a massive adjustment in the pointspread for Game 3 to the point where I feel Cleveland (who I was on in the first two games) has no real value.  However, the Over looks like the way to go as there's been a massive adjustment in the O/U line as well from the first two games.  None of the first five games in these Conference Finals have gone Over, so we're due. 

The total for tonight's game is three points lower from where it closed for Game 2 and significantly down from the Game 1 O/U line as well.  Considering Cleveland's offensive efficiency and the fact they are 5-1 Over this season at home when the total is in the 190 to 194.5 pt range, I'd say the time is right to strike.  In addition to having the Cavs in each of the first two games, I had the Under in Game 1. But interesting is the fact that the Cavs have had no problems scoring in the first half, averaging 52.5 PPG.  With their defense clamping down in the second half of both games, there hasn't been much urgency to score late, which has played a role in the two low-scoring results.  But a desperate Atlanta team could very well challenge them throughout here and push LeBron and company to have to score more. The Hawks are 6-1 Over this season as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 pts. 

I'm a little surprised to hear that Kyrie Irving may try and play tonight. If he does, expect that to actually have an adverse effect on the Cavs on the defensive end.  The team's defensive numbers are actually much worse this postseason w/ Irving on the court as opposed to the less heralded Matthew Dellavadova. However, offensively, the Cavs will continue to have little difficulty scoring with or without Irving as they average 103.4 PPG at home this season.  Atlanta, as banged up as they are and w/o Korver, cannot continue to struggle this much offensively and is due to start scoring more. 10* Over Hawks/Cavaliers

8* Golden State (9:05 ET):  Though the Rockets have largely been "in the money" for the entirety of the first two games of the series (did trail by 17 in Game 2), they have still yet to beat the Warriors in six tries this season. Coming home down 0-2 will represent their "best chance" to most, but I think that the linesmakers are giving them far too much respect here based off the two close calls in Oakland.  The Rockets have actually been outscored this postseason and were buried by double digits both times they hosted Golden State in the regular season. They say "close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades" and with this line being so low, Houston's margin for error is basically nil. The Warriors are still the better team, folks, even on the road.

Houston is 10-1 ATS as a home dog of three points or less the last three seasons, including a perfect 4-0 ATS this year. They were obviously being undervalued for Game 7 here at home vs. the Clippers (only time a Gm 7 host was a dog in the L20 seasons), but that doesn't necessarily mean that they should be getting more respect against a better opponent here.  Defensively, these teams have been miles apart in the playoffs.  While Golden State is allowing a scant 95.5 PPG (92.2 L5 games), Houston is all the way up at 110.5 PPG this postseason.  That's a massive gap and the presence of Dwight Howard alone cannot rectify it.  When you consider that the Rockets trailed Game 2 by as many as 17 pts and could not win Game 1 despite being spotted a 16-point lead, I think it's plain to see who the better team is here.

Betting on Golden State to lose straight up, which is essentially what anyone taking Houston here is doing, seems foolish given that they have won 77 of 94 games SU this year. That includes a 73-11 SU mark when favored. Howard isn't 100 percent for Houston, placing a large burden on James Harden, who was at his best in Game 2 and still could not lead his team to victory.  The Warriors were sloppy with the basketball (17 turnovers) in Game 2, but even though they're now on the road, I expect the "supporting cast" to step up here as they race to a 3-0 series lead.  8* Golden State

10* Over Warriors/Rockets (9:05 ET):  Due to the low-scoring nature of the first two games of the Western Conference Finals, there has been a rather massive adjustment in the total for Game 3, which now sits a full five points lower than what it was at tip off for Game 2. That's a pretty big one-game change in the middle of a series and because of what both of these teams are capable of, I feel the value is on the Over here.  Prior to Game 2, the last three meetings between the Warriors and Rockets had all seen at least 216 total pts scored. While both teams shot well overall in the two games at Oakland, there wasn't the usual number of three-pointers or free throws made that we're used to seeing from them. Assuming both of those numbers go up here, we should have no problem flying Over the total.

Steph Curry has made 11 three-pointers so far in this series, but the rest of the team has combined for only seven.  The Warriors led the league during the regular season w/ 11.1 makes from behind the arc per game and thus a six or seven point increase from Game 2 is almost automatic here.  It's pretty shocking to see what an Under team Golden State has become as dating back to their series clinching win in the 1st Round over New Orleans, they are 8-1 Under the L9 games.  They, of course, led the league during the regular season in points per game and still are averaging 109 PPG overall.  They should be able to better exploit a Houston defense that is allowing 110.5 PPG in the playoffs.

The Rockets are 17-14 Over this season when the total is 210 pts or higher and don't forget that the Over was 6-1 in their last series in spite of high totals.  Neither team is shooting even 70% from the FT line in this series, and while the percentage may not increase dramatically (Dwight Howard being the reason for Houston), I do expect the number of attempts to rise and that will naturally lead to more scoring.  There were only 32 combined free throw attempts in Game 2, down from 50 in Game 1 and that was basically the difference in total points from the two games. With all four Conference Finals games going Under so far, I think Over bettors are overdue to cash.  10* Over Warriors/Rockets

10* Cleveland (8:35 ET):  I have to say that I'm somewhat shocked Atlanta has moved to the role of favorite here.  That line move occurred before this morning's news of Kyrie Irving (questionable) skipping shootaround, but considering the Cavs didn't get a ton of production from Irving in Game 1, that doesn't necessarily worry me.  Nor does the fact that JR Smith is highly unlikely to match his own production (8 of 12 on three-pointers!) from Wednesday.  But if I were an Atlanta backer (and I'm obviously NOT here), I'd be worried about the potential loss of DeMarre Carroll, who was not only their leading scorer in the first two rounds of the playoffs, but the one charged w/ being the primary defender on LeBron James in this series.  As I did in Game 1, I'm taking the Cavs.

While the possibility of Irving missing tonight's game and Smith's regression, James will have to step up.  Fortunately for him, it's highly likely he won't be guarded by Carroll and w/o Thabo Sefolosha as well, the task will likely fall onto Paul Milsap, thereby tiring him (Milsap) out and likely limiting his production on the offensive end. James, who went for 31-8-6 in Game 1, should have a big game here and I believe his jump shooting is going to eventually improve.  Also, defensively, Cleveland has been tremendous in these playoffs.  They are #1 in three-point defense and blocked shots.  They just held Atlanta to 4 for 23 in Game 1 from behind the arc and have allowed less than 100 pts in nine of their last 10 games (89.0 PPG L5). 

Meanwhile, Atlanta has both scored and allowed fewer than 100 pts in three consecutive games.  This does not set them up well for Game 2 as historically low-scoring teams are not good plays in the playoffs.  The Hawks have failed to score even 90 pts in two of their last three games.  Cleveland crushed them on the glass in Game 1, with a 47-39 rebounding edge.  While perhaps zig zag players are to "blame" for the change in favorite, I can't agree with the move as the Cavs have been the better team for the last several months and James is going to continue to be the difference maker. 10* Cleveland

10* Golden State (9:05 ET):  I'm surprised by how much support the public seems to be giving Houston for Game 2.  They still haven't beaten Golden State in five tries this year and while the final margin in Game 1 was a lot closer than the average loss during the regular season (15.25 PPG), the fact they were spotted a 16-point lead and still could not break through is a bad sign. It's highly unlikely that the Warriors will fall into such a hole once again and w/ Dwight Howard less than 100 percent and not looking effective, I think the Rockets are in trouble tonight. I smell a blowout, so lay the points.

Consider that Game 1 marked Golden State's highest scoring game in regulation in the playoffs.  Though I cashed a winning ticket on the Under Tuesday, Houston's defense remains a major concern, even more so if Howard cannot go.  On the road, the Rockets are allowing 105.1 points per game this year.  In the playoffs, that number is now up to 111.4 PPG overall and they've actually now been outscored in the postseason, yet somehow find themselves in the Conference Finals.  Again, the odds for the series are telling as the Rockets opened at nearly 7 to 1 just to advance.  Golden State led the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season and has allowed just 92.4 PPG its last five.

The Warriors also have a tremendous homecourt advantage w/ a 44-3 SU record at Oracle Arena that has seen them outscore opponents by nearly 15 PPG.  They average over 111 PPG here at home. Given Houston's defensive woes, don't be surprised to see them start exceeding that number on a regular basis as this series progresses.  They've scored at least 110 the last three times they've faced the Rockets.  I just don't think the Rockets have the firepower to keep pace, even w/ James Harden, as when the Warriors went small in Game 1, they torched the Rockets' defense, which could not find a way to match up.   There was a 27-point swing in the margin in Game 1 and that was Houston's previous four losses this postseason were all by double digits. This series looks like a mismatch to me & the odds reflect that. 10* Golden State

8* Cleveland (8:35 ET):  In handicapping Game 1 and the series, there's an interesting dichotomy in this year's Eastern Conference Finals between Cleveland and Atlanta as the lower seeded Cavaliers are actually a 2:1 favorite to advance to the NBA Finals, but a slight dog tonight in Game 1.  Obviously, with the game being in Atlanta, Cleveland wasn't going to be favored prohibitively, but if you like them to take the series (as I do), then grabbing them here is probably a good idea as well.  Much will be made of the Hawks' "team concept" going against the best player in the world, LeBron James, but the Cavs have shown they can win this postseason w/o James being at his best (like Game 6 at Chicago). Take the points.

Cleveland's defense will likely determine how this series plays out. While their YTD numbers at that end of the floor look less than ideal, the bottom line is they've gotten much better since trading for Timofey Mozgov, JR Smith and Iman Shumpert.  Opponents are shooting just 46.4 percent at the rim in the playoffs, the second lowest percentage among playoff teams, against the Cavs, who also are #1 in the playoffs in three-point defense (30.0 percent) and blocked shots.  They are 5-1 ATS this season after holding their previous opponent to 85 pts or less and they allowed only 74 in eliminating the Bulls in Gm 6.  Remember this team has only lost 11 games (including playoffs) straight up since January 15.  They have flaws, but having James obviously makes up for them.

Atlanta, at least to me, has not looked the same in the playoffs. They have failed to cover both Game 1's, including an outright loss to Washington in the last round.  The "problem" with the team concept is that often times they will need one player to step up & I'm not sure if the Hawks themselves know who that should be.  DeMarre Carroll has been their leading scorer in the postseason, but he'll be drained here by guarding James as Chicago's Jimmy Butler was in the last round. Kyle Korver's three-point shooting has been off.  The Cavs have started slow in both of their Game 1's, but LeBron-led teams have an incredible history of "stealing" road games and I like them to do so here. 8* Cleveland

10* Under Cavs/Hawks (8:35 ET): For the most part, you can "throw out" the four regular season matchups between these two as three occurred before Cleveland traded for Timofey Mozgov, JR Smith and Iman Shumpert.  For the record, Atlanta won three times, including the lone meeting after the trades and three of the games also went Over.  But coming into tonight's Game 1, both teams are off low-scoring wins in the respective series clinchers as Cleveland beat Chicago 94-73 while Atlanta downed Washington 94-91.  While the total here is significantly lower than what it was for any of the four regular season matchups, there's many reasons for that & I like the Under in Game 1.

The Cavaliers have been a favorite of Under bettors all season. They are 53-38-1 Under in all games this season, including 6-4 in the playoffs.  They've allowed less than 100 pts in eight of those 10 games (avg of 92.6 PPG) and the most they've allowed in any game was 101.  Tonight's total will be higher than the closing number for any of the games in the Bulls' series.  Offensively, we know the Cavs will lean heavily on LeBron James here, but he is drawing a tough assignment going against DeMarre Carroll, who held him to 3 of 15 shooting when matched up during the regular season.  With a less than 100 percent Kyrie Irving and no Kevin Love, Cleveland will likely have to win this series with defense and preventing the Hawks from making three-pointers.  In the final reg season matchup, they did hold them to 6 of 21 from behind the arc.

As for Atlanta, they are holding teams to just 94.7 points per game here at home for the season.  Here in the playoffs, they're allowing 95.7 PPG overall and in half the games the opponent has been held to 92 pts or less.  The Under is 8-4 in Hawks' home games this season when the number falls into the 195 to 199.5 point range and 5-2 Under in all playoff home games.  Their last two games saw an average of just 174 total pts scored. Three-point marksman Kyle Korver is just 35% from three-point range in the playoffs, including 1 for his last 12.  10* Under Cavs/Hawks

10* Under Rockets/Warriors (9:05 ET):  I readily admit that this Game 1 matchup was quite difficult to handicap.  Golden State is an overwhelming favorite not only tonight, but to win the series, due in large part to the fact they won all four regular season matchups with Houston by an average of more than 15 points per game.  The Warriors are more rested and 43-3 SU at home.  Yet, laying double digits in a Conference Finals game seems a bit risky.  Houston went 6-1 Over in its Conference Semifinal matchup w/ the Clippers, but Golden State is 6-1 Under its L7 games and have not scored more than 109 pts in regulation in any game this postseason. Look for a surprisingly low-scoring Gm 1 here and take the Under.

By "low-scoring" of course, we have a lot of room to work with.  Similar to the last round w/ Clippers-Rockets, we're going to have high totals throughout this series.  Looking back to the regular season, the Under cashed the first two times these teams met, then the next two were very high-scoring games w/ the Warriors scoring 126 and 131 pts respectively.  Even w/ Golden State's offensive prowess, the likelihood of them scoring in that range again here is low.  They've averaged "just" 102.2 PPG in the playoffs.  Houston didn't have Dwight Howard in two of the four reg season matchups w/ the Warriors and his presence in the paint should make a difference here. 

Both of these teams, Golden State particularly, are better than you think defensively. In terms of efficiency, the Warriors are the best defensive team in the league.  They allow just 97.7 points per game at home for the season and over the L5 games of the Memphis series, they gave up just 90.6 PPG.   Three of the five playoff home games, they've allowed 87 or fewer pts and in none of the five have they allowed 100.  This is easily their highest total of the postseason and they're actually 5-2 Under the L7 times the total for one of their games has been 215 or higher.  Only one Warriors' regular season game had a higher total than this and it was back in January and they held Phoenix to only 87 points.  Look for Harden to struggle offensively for the Rockets and while a blowout is a possibility, the Under is more likely. 10* Under Rockets/Warriors

8* LA Clippers (3:30 ET):  Well, isn't this line surprising? We haven't seen a road team favored in a Game 7 in the last 25 years and for good reason as the home teams have won 80 percent of such contests all-time.  So, either the linesmakers are speaking volumes w/ their true opinion of the Rockets here or we're all being "set up."  I say it's the former.  While Game 6 marked a gut-wrenching defeat for the Clippers, you can't forget they were up 19 pts for a reason.  Houston has actually been outscored this postseason and for those who don't think the Clips can win here on the road, remember that they took Gm 1 of this series w/o Chris Paul and led much of the way in Gm 2 as well. Save for Gm 5, they have clearly looked like the better team in this series to me & they've already won a Game 7 in these playoffs. Lay the points.

Overall, Los Angeles is 4-2 ATS on the road in the postseason.  They are 3-0 SU all-time in Game 7's w/ Chris Paul & Blake Griffin and while they were the home team against San Antonio in Rd 1, I don't think they'll be too bothered by being the road team here. Yes, home teams have won at roughly an 80 percent clip, all-time, in these Game 7's. But that still means the road team wins some of the time and in this instance w/ the visitors being favored, it speaks volumes about how the linesmakers perceive this series.  I've had LA rated as the better team all season and this series has not changed my mind on that.  When it comes to coaching, I give a big edge to Doc Rivers over Kevin McHale.

Corey Brewer and Josh Smith both scored 19 pts for Houston in the Game 6 come from behind shocker, but I wouldn't expect either to post those kind of numbers this afternoon.  Brewer is averaging just 9.4 PPG in the playoffs while Smith is an erratic shooter at best that can't be counted on to be better than 50% from the field in B2B games.  He'd actually scored just 17 points total in the previous three games.  While it seems as if the value on the home team is "too good to pass up," I think it's a case of "too good to be true," so I'll stick w/ the Clips, who I predicted to win this series at the start.  8* LA Clippers

10* Under Clippers/Rockets (3:30 ET):  By now, you know "what the score is" here. All six games in this series have gone Over the total as there's been a remarkable consistency in terms of range of total points scored.  The first game saw "only" 218 total pts scored while last five have all fallen between 223 and 227.  The number for Game 7 Sunday still isn't that high, but it's also nine points higher than where we were at for Game 1, and to me that's value. If there ever was to be a time for an Under, it would be now, as both teams seasons are on the line and thus I expect added emphasis on the defensive ends of the floor.  Take the Under.

Say what you will about Houston's defense in this series, but for the year they allow just 98.9 points per game here at home.  With their season on the brink Thursday (down 19), they held the Clippers to just 15 fourth quarter points and 18.2 percent shooting (4 of 22).  That was on the road too.  Blake Griffin didn't score in the 4Q, nor did the Clips have a single fast break point.  The Rockets shot only 42.5% for the game Thursday night, but that was counteracted by making 13 three-pointers and 32 free throws.   They also dominated the glass. While they may shoot better overall, I don't see them having some of those other advantages here this afternoon.

Neither of these teams shoots free throws well. But that's been counteracted in the series by the fact both are shooting such a high volume of attempts from the charity stripe.  I don't think either coach, with their team's seasons on the line, employs a "Hack-A-Jordan" or "Hack-A-Howard" philosophy here, thus bringing down the overall number of FT attempts. Also remember that it was the Rockets' "supporting cast" that led the Game 6 comeback and even though we're now back in Houston, that group collectively isn't likely to play that well again.  Getting 37 points from your bench in B2B games is hard to do.  As we know, the Clips will lean heavily on their starting five. In Game 6, only three players scored in double figures for them.  10* Under Clippers/Rockets

10* Over Warriors/Grizzlies (9:35 ET):  You know the story here. Every game in this series has stayed Under the total, which is in stark contrast to the other Western Conference semifinal (Rockets-Clippers) where every game has gone Over.  Typically, the way these things play out is that the linesmakers are forced to continue to shift the number in the direction that the series has been going, until we reach a "tipping point" and things go the other way. Might we have reached that "tipping point" here for Warriors-Grizzlies as the number for tonight's game 6 is a series-low 193.5 pts? I recognize that none of these games have even seen 190 total pts scored, but this is Golden State, plus Memphis is highly unlikely to shoot as poorly here as they did in Game 5 (39.8%) when they were w/o Tony Allen. Take the Over.

When either Allen or Mike Conley has been out in this series, the Grizzlies have lost by 15 and 20 points. They are 2-1 SU/ATS in the three that they have played together in, and while the team has yet to score 100 points in any game in the series, they did register 97 and 99 in their two wins.  For the year, they average 99.1 PPG at home. They have an advantage inside w/ Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph that they need to exploit, but Randolph only has 25 pts total the L2 games.   While Allen's value is typically on the defensive end of the floor, he can also aid in improving the team's woeful three-point shooting from Game 5 where they were just 4 for 15.   Granted, this is not a good 3-pt shooting team to begin with, but they were at least at 45 percent overall from the field through the first three games.

The way this number stands now, it's a 2.5 pts lower than the lowest closing O/U line for any previous game in the series.  That may not seem like much, but it screams value to me, especially on the Golden State side of things.  The Warriors seem to have "regained their touch" from behind the three-point arc, going 28 for 63 the L2 games and thanks the linesmakers' reaction to what's happened so far in the series, this is set to be the lowest total for any Warriors' game this season!  This is a team that averages 106.5 PPG on the road. 10* Over Warriors/Grizzlies

8* Washington (7:05 ET):  I have yet to play the Wizards in this series, but at home and facing elimination in Game 6, they are a good play laying a short number from where I sit.  Atlanta is a little lucky to be up in this series.  They needed an Al Horford layup in the final seconds to pull out Game 5 at home, which was an ugly affair that featured 42 combined turnovers and overall poor shooting. Washington has only failed to cover two games in the playoffs, one of them by just half a point as the Hawks made their free throws late. Atlanta is just 1-6 ATS the last seven times it has been leading in a playoff series, not to mention 6-21 ATS their L27 second round games.  Lay the short number.

With John Wall back in the lineup, the Wiz led by as many as nine w/ just six minutes to go in the game Wednesday.  Though Wall turned the ball over six times and didn't make a single three-point basket, I thought he still played well as he scored 15 pts, had seven assists and four steals.  Overall, the team will improve upon its woeful 37.5% shooting from Game 5.  Paul Pierce didn't make a single two-point bucket, which is unlikely to happen again.  In fact, aside from Marcin Gortat, not a single Wizards' player had what I'd call a "good shooting night."  Note that after scoring 85 pts or less, the Wiz are 6-2 SU this season.  Doubly good is the fact they are 8-3 Under after allowing 85 pts or less.  

Even in victory, it was an ugly game for the Hawks as well in Game 5.  They were just 41% overall from the field, including 5 of 22 from three-point range.  Their long-distance shooting, a major strength during the regular season, has disappointed in this series. I think the most likely scenario here is the Hawks lose tonight and then go back home to take Game 7.  They are just 2-3 SU/ATS as a road underdog of three points or less this season.  Washington allows just 96.6 PPG at home.  They live to fight another day.  8* Washington

10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET):  After taking Houston in Game 5, I'm saying staving off elimination was a "one-time deal" for them as I expect the Clippers to bounce back w/ the kind of big win we saw from them here at home in Games 3 & 4. In those contests, they held the Rockets to an average of just 97 PPG, winning by an average of 29 PPG.  That cannot be ignored.  Nor can the fact that home teams off a DD loss in Round 2 of the playoffs have cashed at better than a 60 percent clip the last 20+ years.  While a team facing elimination is always going to give you its "best shot," in this case I just don't think that the Rockets' best shot will be good enough.

Home court is pretty critical here.  Houston has lost straight up all five times this season in which it has been a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points.  They have lost 9 of their last 10 at Staples Center vs. the Clippers and three of four playoff road games overall.  Defensively, they allow 105.0 points per game away from home and combined with the expected decline  on offense, it all adds up to a bad situation for the Rockets tonight.  Of course, back at home, you can expect improvement from Los Angeles as well.  They shot just 41.8% overall in Gm 5, but have been above 52% their last three home games. Four players - Redick, Rivers, Barnes & Crawford were a combined 9 of 41 from the field in Game 5.  Collective improvement there is all but guaranteed.   Off a SU loss as a favorite, the Clippers are 13-5 straight up this year.

Through the first four games of this series, the Clippers had completely dominated. They pulled off three double digit wins & in the game that they lost, they led going into the fourth quarter following a 65-point first half.  Game 5 was what I would call a "mail-in game," one where there was no sense of urgency for the Clippers.  Once the game got out of hand, there was no real incentive to come back.  That's not the case here.  Lose this game & they'd have to go back to Houston for a winner take all, Game 7. Given what we saw in the two previous games in LA, I expect more of the same and the Clips to finish off the series in blowout fashion.  10* LA Clippers

10* Under Rockets/Clippers (10:35 ET):  Let's try this again. The O/U line keeps climbing in this series and for good reason. All five games to this point have gone Over.  The last four have seen remarkable consistency in the number of total pts scored as the range has been a very narrow 223 to 227 (Game 1 was 218).  The total here for Gm 6 is still below that range yet roughly eight points higher than what it was for Game 1.  I still feel that's some real value here as we're overdue for the Under to come through.  Remember that all four regular season meetings between these two stayed Under the total.  Now on the road, Houston will be unlikely to match its intensity and/or level of play from the previous game.

I was on the Rockets in Game 5.  It was a near wire to wire winner & really the result was in little doubt by the end of the first half.  But Houston is unlikely to match its 54.1 percent shooting from Tuesday night.  Their scoring typically doesn't nosedive too much when on the road, but the results from Games 3 & 4 of this series cannot be ignored as they averaged just 97 points per game in a pair of blowout defeats. They barely shot over 40% from the field.  Free throw shooting continues to be an issue as there hasn't been a single game in the series where they've shot better than a 66% clip.  Also, while expected to play, James Harden is still battling the flu, which could limit him.  A second-straight triple double is unlikely.  Both he and Howard see their numbers decrease quite dramatically in the losses to the Clippers this season compared to the wins, which I suppose is only natural.

  As for the Clippers, there hasn't been a single game in the series where they haven't scored 100 pts. The hope on this end is that they won't get to 120, or if they do, it comes in a blowout manner similar to Games 3 and 4 here at Staples Center.  The Clips' own free throw shooting has been especially poor in the L2 games (below 60 percent) and we know that the Rockets have abandoned the "hack-a-Jordan" philosophy that brought them no success.  For LA, that means fewer FT attemps. The two teams combined to shoot just 18 of 64 from three-point range in Game 5.  I just feel that we're due to have an Under.  10* Under Rockets/Clippers

10* Over Grizzlies/Warriors (10:35 ET):  So far, every game in this series has stayed Under the total.  For Memphis, that's simply a case of "old hat" as they are 51-37 Under in all games this year (three pushes), including 26-8 L34 vs. teams that come in averaging more than 99 points per game.  But for Golden State, now 6-1-1 Under in the postseason, this is fairly irregular. I was on the Warriors in Game 4 as they won handily, 101-84 as five-point favorites, also matching their highest scoring game of the series.  As Memphis HC Dave Joerger put it so succinctly "We need to score more (than 84 pts)."  I would concur and with the scene shifting back to Oakland for Game 5 tonight, I expect the elusive Over to come through. 

Golden State was the highest scoring home team in the league, by a wide margin, during the regular season.  They average a whopping 112 PPG here at Oracle Arena, so simply by getting to their average, the likelihood of this game going Over is strong.  Now, that's easier said than done as Memphis is a great defensive team and held the Warriors to a season-low 90 pts at home in Gm 2.  But also note that in their two wins in this series, GSW has scored 61 first half points.  After shooting just 23.1 percent from three-point range in the previous two games, which you knew wouldn't last, the Warriors made 14 of 33 from behind the arc w/ MVP Steph Curry leading the way (4 for 9) en route to a game-high 33 points.  At home tonight, I would expect the Warriors' offense to resemble that of the last game as opposed to the two prior.

Every series features adjustments and this one is no different.  Golden State got very creating defensively in Game 4, utilizing some really unique matchups to their advantage, but it's not like Memphis is incapable of turning things around.  The Grizzlies should have a tremendous edge in the paint w/ Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol and need to exploit that.  Tony Allen missed a lot of shots in Game 4 when he was open on the perimeter and overall the starting five was just 21 of 60 from the floor, which I cannot see being repeated here.  Their three-point shooting, admittedly a major weakness, can't get any worse and let us not forget that this is a pretty low number for a Golden State home game. 10* Over Grizzlies/Warriors

8* Under Wizards/Hawks (8:05 ET):  This series has featured more Overs (three) than Unders (one), but the O/U line keeps creeping up and I think the value here is on the Under.  High scoring first halves have been the story so far and that trend certainly continued in Game 4 where the Hawks went into halftime w/ a 65-55 advantage.  But in every game, save for Game 3, we've seen a dramatic decrease in scoring in the 2H.  The end result is that no game in the series has seen more than 207 pts scored, so it's not as if these games are flying Over the total. Seven of the past eight head to head meetings here in Atlanta have gone Over, but the one Under was Gm 2 and remember that the Wizards will either have no John Wall or a John Wall at far below 100 percent.  Take the Under.

Both teams were lights out from three-point range in Game 4, going a combined 21 of 45.  The Hawks were actually slightly better from three-point range than they were from two, which is obviously not something you see every day.  Even more striking is the fact that the same held true for Washington in the last game!  Also, neither of these teams does a particularly great job at getting to the free-throw line, primarily because both are so perimeter-oriented.  Note that with or without Wall, Bradley Beal is likely to see a decrease in scoring from the last game when he turned in a career playoff-high 34 points. Paul Pierce is also unlikely to maintain his current percentage from three-point range.  An absent Wall would obviously be the biggest blow of all.

Atlanta is a pretty good defensive team as they allow just 95 PPG at home for the season.  So, Washington scoring 100+ in three of the four games is pretty irregular, even w/ two of them being in D.C.. On the road, the Wiz average just 95.3 PPG for the year and they had only 90 in Gm 2 here in Atlanta, so all signs do point to a decrease in offensive production for them while the Hawks are 8-4 this season at home when the total is in the 195 to 200 pt range.  8* Under Wizards/Hawks

10* Houston (9:35 ET):  Because of the last two games in Los Angeles, there's been a dramatic shift in the way these teams are being priced for Game 5 here in Houston.  The Rockets now come in as a home dog, which I feel is a nice value considering not only the fact the team is 13-4 ATS this season when off a double digit loss, but they are also 8-1 ATS the L9 times they've been a home dog of three points or less.  Yes, the Clippers have dramatically outplayed the Rockets in this series, even when w/o Chris Paul, but I think the public is overreacting a bit to what they've seen the last two games. Remember that they were betting the Rockets like wildfire for Game 1 when Paul was out. The case of Atlanta being bet to the role of road favorite for Game 3 vs. Washington (after it was announced John Wall would not play) also serves as precedent here. Houston won't win the series, but they'll live to fight another day. 

This has simply not been the same Rockets team that we saw dominate Dallas in Round 1.  They are 0-4 ATS in the series and really have been outplayed in 15 of the 16 quarters.  It's been B2B 25+ point losses and this "Hack-A-Jordan" strategy simply has not worked as it's taken Houston out of its own offensive rhythm.  I look for HC Kevin McHale to abandon that particular strategy tonight due to the season being on the line.  I also didn't understand McHale's decision in the last game to have Jason Terry be the primary ball-handler.  That limits James Harden's ability to get to the free throw line, something he did w/ great frequency during the regular season, but he's only 5th in FT attempts here in the playoffs. Again, look for McHale to change up his strategy here.  Also, at home, Harden is more likely to have the calls "go his way."

Defensively, the Clippers are not great. They yield 102.4 PPG on the road, so the fact that a high-scoring team like Houston has failed to break that benchmark in three of four games in the series is somewhat shocking.  Houston's own defense is typically much better at home than on the road as they are allowing about six points per game fewer. Adjustments can be made from game to game within a series and I believe Houston will make the necessary ones to stay alive for another game. 10* Houston

8* Under Clippers/Rockets (9:35 ET): So far, every game in this series has gone Over the total.  But with this Game 5 total opening up at 219 pts, we've now seen a full seven point adjustment from the number for Game 1 & to me, that's value. Houston cannot possibly be as bad defensively as they've shown the last two games.  Here at home, you can expect improvement as for the year they've allowed an average of just 98.8 PPG, which is six pts fewer per game than they've allowed on the road.  The Clippers shot over 50% in the two games at home, including 26 of 60 from three-point range, a clip I do not feel they will be able to maintain here.  Take the Under.

The Rockets have gone Under in only two games this postseason, but tonight's game will likely close as their second highest total in the playoffs.  The highest was 221.5 for the close out game vs. Dallas, which was an easy Under as the final score was 103-94 in their favor.  You'll recall that I started this series out by playing the Over in Game 1, noting the value was there because in the regular season these two teams played four times and all four games stayed Under.  The most points scored in any of those four regular season matchups was 215 and if you want to talk value, the O/U line for the very first Rockets-Clippers matchup of the year was set at only 201.5.  So, there's been nearly an 18-point increase from that first game.  I'm not surprised that this series has been kind to Over bettors thus far, but now it's time to start looking the other way.

While I do expect Houston to be able to get to the free throw line w/ greater abundance here in Game 5, at the same time you can look for the Clippers' free throw shooting numbers to decline.  Not necessarily in terms of percentage, because LA isn't necessarily a great team from the charity stripe anyway, which is obviously beneficial.  Rather the key will be a decline in the number of attempts as I expect HC Kevin McHale to abandon the foolish "Hack-A-Jordan" strategy that simply has not worked so far in this series.  The Clippers attempted a preposterous 63 free throws in Game 4 and while they made only 36 of them, that's still a lot of "free points."  Speaking of free throw shooting, because of Dwight Howard, the Rockets have been horrible there all series, making less than 66% in every game.  8* Under Clippers/Rockets

8* Golden State (9:35 ET):  This has been a crazy postseason thus far, but perhaps the craziest part of all is the top-seeded Warriors having dropped B2B games to fall behind Memphis in this best of seven series.  The Grizzlies are clearly a totally different animal w/ PG Mike Conley back in the lineup, but Golden State has not dropped three consecutive games all season and I don't expect them to do so now w/ their season effectively hanging in the balance. Memphis has done an outstanding job defensively since Conley's return, holding the top scoring team in the league to just 89.5 PPG, but that can last for only so long.  Look for Curry and Thompson to get back on track here and lead the team to a crucial victory.

Not only was Golden State a season-worst 6 for 26 from three-point range, missing several open ones to boot, but they also went just 19 for 28 at the free throw line.  Steph Curry went just 8 for 21 overall from the field.  After being held under 40 pts in the 1st half just once during the regular season, it's now happened to the Warriors in B2B games.  Again, that's due for a correction, right?  When trailing in a playoff series, GSW is 5-1 against the spread the last three seasons.  Now just 2-8 ATS its L10 games overall, this Warriors team was too good during the regular season not to turn things around. 

Memphis has clearly forced Golden State out of its comfort zone here, but there were some adjustments made by the Warriors late in Game 3 that I liked.  For one, they started doubling in the post, daring the Grizzlies' guards to beat them.  It almost worked as they nearly rallied from 19 pts down.  Two games should not erase what the Warriors have done all year as they were the first team since Boston in 2007-08 to outscore its opponents by a double digit margin for the year. Look for them to even this series up w/ a big win tonight.  8* Golden State

10* Atlanta (7:05 ET):  The Hawks ought to be ashamed of themselves for dropping Game 3 in Washington as the Wizards were w/o John Wall as they will be here as well. Yes, that game was decided on a Paul Pierce buzzer-beater, but Atlanta actually found itself down by as many as 21 in the fourth quarter before mounting a furious rally.  The loss dropped the Hawks to 5-20 ATS in second round playoff games, but the good news is this season has seen the team go 10-3 ATS/11-3 SU following an outright loss as a favorite.  As I said prior to Game 2, I just don't believe that the Wizards are as good as their 6-1 SU/ATS record this postseason might seem to indicate.  Lay the points as Atlanta evens this series up. 

So far in this series, the Hawks have not shot the ball well - at all.  Three-point shooting, a major strength during the regular season, in particular has been an issue.  They are just 30 for 90 in the series.  The starting five collectively shot just 37.5% in Game 3, scoring only 51 total points. Improvement is likely and should be expected.  Paul Milsap was dealing w/ the flu Saturday and that definitely had a negative impact on the team.  He scored just eight points in 22 minutes and the other four starters saw their respective shooting percentages dip noticeably w/ him off the court.  Consider that Atlanta had the edge in points off turnovers, points in the paint and fast break points in Game 3.  Assuming their outside shots begin to fall again, they should be just fine here. 

The Wizards are just 3-3 w/o Wall this year and backup Ramon Sessions hardly inspired much confidence for the future w/ his Game 3 performance of eight points on 2 of 10 shooting.  Something that I feel certainly bears mentioning here is that Washington actually finished the regular season w/ the worst ATS record in the league. So, they've made up for that a bit here in the postseason, but in the larger picture, this team is still not a safe bet. Especially considering they're now w/o their best player for the forseeable future (no offense, Paul Pierce!) and have lost four of six overall to the Hawks this season. 10* Atlanta

8* Cleveland (3:30 ET): Zig-zaggers (those taking the SU loser of the previous game) have been treated to a 2-0 ATS record so far in this series & I see that form "holding true" again here for Game 4 Sunday afternoon.  After two pretty uncompetitive games in Cleveland, it was a back and forth affair won by the Bulls on a Derrick Rose buzzer-beater in Game 3. Considering the Cavs' two superstars - LeBron James and Kyrie Irving - both had what I'd call "off nights" Friday (combined 11 for 38 shooting) & the team was still in position to win (led for almost the entire first half & into the second, I'd say the predictable bounce back is in order.  This is a similar rationale to when I played Cleveland in the 1st half of Game 2.

Though I did play Chicago and they won in Game 3, that doesn't mean the team's shortcomings when playing on less than two days rest have been eradicated.  While I expect both James and Irving to play better this afternoon, I don't have the same feeling for Derrick Rose, the Game 3 hero.  As I've mentioned in previous analysis, his effective shooting percentage goes way down when he's not on at least two days' rest and you can't forget that he was actually just 10 for 26 from the field Friday night.  Neither team actually shot well, although Cleveland did make 14 three-pointers thanks to the return of JR Smith (4 for 8), which is a good sign.

Remember that w/ the exception of a home and home vs. Boston (towards the end of the regular season), where they rested key players, Cleveland has not dropped B2B games straight up since a healthy James returned to the lineup back in mid-January.  Chicago is also now dealing w/ a key injury, that being the hamstring of Pau Gasol, which may keep him out here.  Obviously, I think it's interesting that despite losing Game 3, the line has swung in Cleveland's favor as they closed as a 2.5-pt dog Friday night.  But that could actually be a good thing because as previously noted, the Cavs are just 3-13 SU/ATS when taking points this year as opposed to 55-18 SU/40-33 ATS when favored. Look for James and company to even this series up. 8* Cleveland

10* Golden State (8:05 ET):  The Warriors lost for the first time this postseason, shockingly dropping Game 2 by a score of 97-90 to the Grizzlies. I was on Memphis, plus the points, and have to say that even I was shocked by that final result. Then again, while they did sweep their first round series, it's hardly been the "same dominant Warriors" in the postseason that we were accustomed to seeing in the regular season.  They are just 2-4 ATS in the playoffs & 2-7 ATS their last nine games overall.  The Grizzlies now have PG Mike Conley back in the lineup and are getting points at home for the first time all season. But Golden State, off the rare SU loss, happens to be a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS when taking the court on three or more days rest.  My money is on them bouncing back. Lay the points.

Only four times this year have the Dubs lost B2B games. With this number being relatively short, you have to think a SU win will also bring home the cover in this one.  Turning the ball over 20 times in Game 2 was a major problem, but one that I expect to be rectified here in Game 3.  That was their first home regulation loss since November and they virtually trailed the whole way.  Steph Curry and Klay Thompson aren't likely to shoot a combined 13 of 34 from the floor again (3 for 17 from three-point range) as 90 points was the team's lowest scoring output since the All-Star Break.  Even on the road, things are due for a turnaround as they still average 107 PPG. 

  As I wrote in my Game 2 analysis, Conley is a game-changer for the Grizzlies.  But consider that even w/ him in the lineup, the team lost by 23 here at home to Golden State late in the regular season.  Curry & Thompson went for a combined 66 pts in that game.  As good as Memphis can be defensively, I just don't think they can lock down this opponent two games in a row and offensively they do not have the firepower to keep up w/ a likely Warriors' bounce back.  For what it's worth, Golden State is a perfect 16-0 SU on Saturdays this season. 10* Golden State

10* Under Hawks/Wizards (5:05 ET):  I cashed the Under in Game 2 between these teams and though it was close, I feel that's the way to go again here as the series shifts to D.C.. As was the case in the last game, Washington won't have PG John Wall at its disposal and there's no two ways around it; this is a major loss for the team.   Without him on the floor, the Wiz scored just 90 pts in Game 2, including only 15 in the fourth quarter.  Wall had posted a double-double in four consecutive games, averaging 17.4 points and 12.6 assists.  Oh by the way, starting backcourt mate Bradley Beal is also battling through an ankle injury.  Even at home, I cannot see fill-in Ramon Sessions going for 21 pts again like he did in Gm 2.  Take the Under. 

Defense is going to be the key for the Wizards in the next two games. Here at home, they are limiting opponents to an average of just 96.3 points per game.  The last game was just the second time in these playoffs that they allowed 100+ points.  They are 14-8 Under this season after allowing 105+ pts.  While their scoring does rise (by about 3 PPG) at home and they are a perfect 5-0 Over this season when playing on 3+ days rest, not having Wall is a game-changer.   They scored at less than a one-point per possession clip in Game 2.

The pace of the first two games has been relatively slow w/ an average of about 93 possessions per side.  Atlanta is no slouch defensively either.  They ranked 7th in the league during the regular season in points allowed.  As a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 pts, they are 7-2 Under this year.  What I'd be worried about if I were the Hawks is the offense though as they are just 12 of 43 on uncontested jump shots outside of 10 feet in the series. Kyle Korver, in particular, has seen a decline in his numbers.  They're also not finishing well at the rim. While normally, I'd expect a little regression to the mean in this situation, we're getting a great value here as the number is as high as it's been in the series.  Washington is unlikely to make 12 of 22 three-pointers again like they did in Game 2. 10* Under Hawks/Wizards

10* Chicago (8:05 ET):  Could this one be as easy as "whomever scores first, wins"?  That's how each of the first two games in Cleveland went w/ the Bulls jumping out to a 13-2 lead in Game 1 and the Cavs doing the same in Gm 2, and in both instances neither looked back.  I do expect more of a back and forth affair here in Game 3, but despite Chicago's well publicized "woes" when taking the floor w/ one or less days' rest, I expect them to re-take the lead in the series.  Though they get J.R. Smith back from suspension tonight, Iman Shumpert injured his groin in Game 2 and depth remains a very real concern for Cleveland. Lay the short number.

For the Cavs to win, not just this game, but the series, they'll need to heavily rely on LeBron James and Kyrie Irving.  That duo, James in particular, were up to the task in Game 2, but can they consistently do that?  We know that, statistically speaking, the Bulls are much worse when on minimal rest, but might that now be the same w/ the depth shy Cavaliers?  Shumpert may not even play tonight, which would be a killer as he's been the one player on the supporting cast to really contribute to this point.  He scored 37 points in the first two games and made 8 of 17 from three-point range.  Who knows if a rusty Smith (who did not have a good series vs. Boston) can make up for that potential lost production. Meanwhile, you have to think the Bulls' trio of Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler and Pau Gasol will do better than a combined 14 of 42 from the field, which is what they were at in the last game.

Cleveland, interestingly, is only 3-12 ATS this season as an underdog.  Granted, many of those games came during James' so-called "sabbatical" early in the year.  But included in there is an 0-3 SU/ATS mark as a road dog of three points or less.  Chicago, meanwhile, is 4-1 SU/ATS this year as home chalk of three pts or less.  Defensively, Game 2 was the Bulls' worst of the postseason as previously they'd been allowing an average of just 89 PPG.  The Cavs are giving up 101 PPG on the road this year.  The Bulls actually outscored Cleveland in each of the final three quarters Wednesday.  10* Chicago

10* Houston (9:35 ET):  The Clippers have already accomplished what they needed to do here in Houston, and that's win a game. Surprisingly, they came in and took Game 1 of this best of seven series, 117-101 on Monday, despite not having their leader (PG Chris Paul) and being just 48 hours removed from a thrilling Game 7 victory over the Spurs. Obviously, I'm a little biased, but if I'm Clips HC Doc Rivers, I sit Paul for Game 2 and save him for the rest of the series now that you've "stolen" the homecourt advantage. As for tonight, I see the Rockets winning in a blowout as Washington last night and Cleveland two nights ago (Memphis w/o Conley as well) are the standard for what happens in the playoffs when you're down a key contributor.  Paul, or no Paul, note that this play stands! Lay the points.

I knew that Houston wasn't great defensively (part of the reason I took the Over in Gm 1!), but giving up 71 points in the second half, at home, is unforgivable.  Especially considering LA was w/o Paul. Blake Griffin, who in some respects has actually become "underrated," turned in his second straight triple double in leading the 117-101 outright upset. A third straight is certainly unlikely.  Depth is an issue for the Clippers, with or w/o Paul, as their bench rates as one of the worst in the entire league.  Other than Jamal Crawford, there really isn't a single reserve they can count on consistently. Austin Rivers started in place of Paul for Gm 1, scoring 17 pts, but consider in the previous three games he scored only five points total. 

The Clippers are hardly stout defensively themselves, as they've allowed an average of 102.1 points per game on the road this season.  A big issue for the Rockets in Gm 1 was that they made only 14 of their 24 free throw attempts after making at least 70 percent in every regular season matchup vs. the Clips.  That's owed to Dwight Howard going 4 for 9, but after splitting the four regular season games vs. LA, all w/o Howard, theoretically the Rockets should be in better shape w/ him in this series.  James Harden scored only 20 pts in Game 1, and was responsible for nine of the team's 24 turnovers, which the Clips converted into 34 points. Houston was also outrebounded 42-35 Monday, despite having Howard, something I expect to be different this time around.  The Rockets are an amazing 12-1 SU/ATS off a SU loss as a favorite this season, so w/ the Clippers 0-7 ATS the L3 years when leading in a playoff series, tonight is a clear time to "zig zag."  10* Houston

8* Memphis (10:35 ET):  I'll concede to you that things do not look particularly good in this series for the underdog Grizzlies, particularly if they don't get much from PG Mike Conley.  But Conley has come out and said he "hopes to play" in Game 2 and that is just what the team needs to stay close w/ the heavily favored Warriors here.  If there was ever a time to "zig zag" (i.e. play the SU loser of the previous game), it would be in this situation as Memphis is going to be desperate to stay in the series, plus as I talked about when I played Boston plus the points against Cleveland in Game 2 of their first round series, double digit dogs tend to be excellent zig zag plays in the playoffs as they've cashed roughly 65% of the time the L25 seasons.   Take the points here. 

Conley's presence would be a huge difference-maker for the Grizzlies tonight.  Note that this play stands whether or not Conley actually plays.  If he does, there will be obvious improvement on both the offensive & defensive ends of the floor for Memphis.  Conley is the team's best three-point shooter, which I talked about in my Game 1 analysis, and sure enough w/o him the Grizzlies were just 3 of 12 from behind the arc Sunday.  Conley would also help defensively as he would be tasked w/ checking MVP Steph Curry, allowing Tony Allen to guard Klay Thompson.  Keep in mind though that even w/o Conley, the Grizzlies lost by "only" 15 points Sunday. All things considered, that is not bad. All that the linesmakers are requiring here is two more made baskets. 

Undermanned to begin with, Memphis really got into trouble in the series opener when both Zach Randolph and Jeff Green got into foul trouble.  Golden State is a good shooting team to begin with, but they were even better than normal in Game 1, especially from behind the arc, where they connected on 13 of 28 attempts.  Three-point shooting was definitely the difference as the Warriors were +30 in point differential in that department.  I just can't see that discrepancy being repeated.  Note that the Grizzlies stayed within four points  of the Warriors w/o Conley back on April 13th.  With or without him here, look for them to stay inside the number. 8* Memphis

10* Under Wizards/Hawks (8:05 ET):  With Game 1 managing to find its way Over the total, that now makes it seven straight matchups between the Wizards & Hawks here in Atlanta to go Over. So I'm definitely "bucking"  convention here, but I feel the move is well warranted considering how the second half of Sunday's opener played out. Note that Game 1 would almost certainly not have gone Over had it not been for the teams combining for 116 pts before halftime.  After that, it was a low-scoring 2H w/ the teams combining for just 86 pts the rest of the way.  Neither team shot particularly well in Gm 1, but I think a key trend here is that the Hawks are 9-2 Under this season when seeking revenge for a home loss.  Under is the play here.

In addition to having won and covered every playoff game so far (7-0 ATS L7 overall), the Wizards have gone Over in four straight contests as well as seven of their last eight.  Yet despite the pairing of veteran Paul Pierce w/ one of the best backcourts in the league (Wall-Beal), I remain a major skeptic of this team.  Because of their recent results, not to mention the series history (Over is 11-2 L13 head to head matchups w/ Atlanta), tonight's total is just a little bit higher than all of their other playoff games.  This is a team that averages just 95.4 points per game on the road for the season, so there should be a little regression in store.  Going into Sunday's game, the Wiz were a perfect 5-0 Under when coming off three consecutive Overs. 

Defensively, Atlanta should be better tonight than they were in Game 1.  They allow just 95.1 PPG for the year here at home and only once did they allow more than 100 pts in the Nets series, and that was an overtime game on the road.  Previously, the Under was 7-3 for them this season at home when the closing total fell into the 195 to 199.5 point range.  Washington's Bradley Beal scored his playoff career-high (28 pts) in Game 1, a number which should come down tonight as he sprained his ankle near the end of the contest.  Also, John Wall is now less than 100 percent w/ a hand injury. Look for the Hawks to put the clamps down defensively and win a relatively low-scoring affair. 10* Under Wizards/Hawks