8* Virginia (2:00 ET): Two more teams (Buffalo, Furman) fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last night, leaving just six left in the country. Counted among them is #5 Virginia, a team that has won 41 of its last 44 games overall. While it it going to take a LONG time to wash away the stench of that historic loss in LY's NCAA Tournament (first #1 seed to ever lose to a #16), the bottom line is that Tony Bennett's Cavaliers remain one of the premier teams in the country. William & Mary won't be any match for them this afternoon in Charlottesville. Lay the points.

So far, the Hoos are 10-0 and outscoring teams by 21.1 PPG. That average margin of victory is basically what we're looking for here and we should get it (and then some) due to the combination of Virginia's own defense and W&M's lack of it. The Hoos are #1 in the country in scoring defense (as per usual), giving up just 51.3 points per game. They're even stingier here at home where they are allowing only 46.6 PPG! The only team to crack 60 against them so far was Maryland and that was a "true" road game. Four of their five visitors have not scored 50.

William & Mary can score. They come in averaging 77.3 PPG. But that's also skewed due to games against lesser competition, like their last one against William Peace College where they scored 106. Note that the Tribe has faced one top 20 defense in efficiency this year (Old Dominion) and was held to 53 points on the road. This is very likely to be worse. Then you have the fact that William & Mary comes in allowing 81.3 PPG. So in addition to their usual brand of defense, UVA should score plenty Saturday afternoon, giving this the potential to be one of the bigger blowouts on today's card. 8* Virginia

8* Drexel (1:00 ET): This battle of Philly schools may not be as lopsided as it appears. Temple, while 9-2 SU, has won a LOT of close games so far. Already, they have four wins by four points or less. Only three of their nine wins have come by a margin greater than eight points. While it's nice to have such wins "in the bag," it's also not sustainable and doesn't make for being a great favorite. Sure enough, the Owls are 1-6 ATS as chalk this season. Coming off B2B two-point victories (over UMass and Davidson), I see Temple as being ripe for an upset. Take the points here. 

Admittedly, Drexel has a couple bad losses this year (NJ Tech, MD-Baltimore County). They were also just blown out by 32 at UConn earlier in the week. But getting this game at home is going to be a big motivating factor for the Dragons, who also come in w/ revenge for a three-point loss to Temple last year. They easily covered the 16-point spot there as neither team shot the ball well. One thing that makes this Drexel team attractive as an underdog in they can score. They average more than 80 PPG on the season while shooting 39.2% from three-point range. That'll go a long way in keeping this one close. 

Now they did shoot only 3 of 16 from behind the arc against UConn. But remember that was on the road. The Dragons had scored at least 76 points in each of their four games previous to the loss to UConn. Unlike the Huskies, Temple really does not have the kind of elite offense that can blow teams out w/ regularity. The Owls needed OT to get by Davidson last Saturday, scoring the GW basket on a lucky turnover. That came on the heels of rallying back from being down 10 at the half to UMass. Really, the Owls should feel fortunate to have that 9-2 SU record as three of their last four wins have come by exactly two points. The underdog will keep this closer than expected. 8* Drexel

10* Marquette (8:30 ET): I admit Buffalo got me earlier in the week (winning at Syracuse), but this is a pretty brutal spot for the still-undefeated Bulls, who are playing as a short road underdog for a second straight time. With Texas Tech losing last night (to Duke), only eight teams remain unbeaten in College Basketball. Sooner than later, all will fall at least once and for Buffalo, tonight is that time. Marquette is a stronger team than Syracuse, despite the oddsmakers suggesting otherwise, and they're a perfect 8-0 SU here at home. Lay the short number here as Buffalo takes its first loss of the year. 

Buffalo is a nice story, but I'll continue to maintain that they are nowhere even close to being a top 15 team in the country, which is where the pollsters have them. Now, this is an experienced group that did win a NCAA Tournament game (upset Arizona) last March. Nate Oats' team is expected to repeat as MAC Champions, but the Bulls have clearly surpassed expectations so far w/ a 7-1 ATS mark. I concede that they do own impressive road wins over West Virginia and Syracuse. But this four-game road trip that they're on (takes them through the New Year) figures to provide them their first loss as this is pretty clearly the most challenging spot of the three remaining games.

Marquette has won six straight, a streak which includes wins over Louisville, Kansas State and Wisconsin. They too are in the Top 25 (currently 20th) following a 26-point over North Dakota their last time out, a blowout win which came in spite of 22 turnovers. The Golden Eagles only losses this year came at Indiana and to Kansas at a neutral setting. Their eight home wins have come by an average of 18.5 PPG (opponents shooting just 36.0%). Eventually, Buffalo has to lose and this figures to be the last time they are an underdog for awhile. 10* Marquette

10* Over Pistons/Hornets (7:05 ET): In an Eastern Conference w/ no depth, both of these teams figure to make the playoffs. They are likely to battle for the 6th seed, a spot which the Pistons currently occupy w/ a 15-14 SU record. But Charlotte is just one-half game back, has a better YTD point differential and has already beaten Detroit twice. But this play isn't about who's covering, rather I'm looking at a total which seems too low. The first two meetings both stayed Under, but only by a handful of points. Thus I'm looking at the Over cashing tonight as neither side is exactly noted for its defensive prowess.

Detroit allowed a shooting percentage of just 43.7% in its last game (at Minnesota), yet still gave up 123 points. The game did go into overtime, but the Pistons allowed just five points in the extra five minutes. Had the T'wolves shot even reasonably well, who knows how many points they could have scored. While two Minnesota players - Robert Covington and Dario Saric - combined to go 7 of 16 from three-point range, the rest of the team was an abysmal 2 of 17 from behind the arc. Charlotte is a much better three-point shooting team, especially here at home where they're hitting 37.1% for the year. Look for them to make the Pistons pay tonight from distance. 

The Hornets allowed only 99 points their last time out, but that was against Cleveland. The Pistons aren't exactly the greatest shooting team in the world, but they'll present a far greater challenge defensively here for Charlotte. Detroit is averaging 110.7 PPG on the road. Meanwhile, the Hornets are averaging 115.2 PPG at home. Looking at season averages, we're several points clear of the O/U line, so all we need is an "average game" from both sides here. Note in the last meeting, Charlotte didn't shoot the ball well at all. I expect those numbers to go up substantially here tonight. 10* Over Pistons/Hornets

8* Coastal Carolina (7:00 ET): Charleston comes into this game pretty red hot, as winners of seven straight. They are 10-2 SU overall, but I don't see them being worthy of this price range against this opponent tonight. Coastal Carolina might only be 6-5 SU, but they've taken only one DD loss on the year and it was by 11 to a Wofford team that is substantially better than Charleston. Other than that, the Chanticleers' other four losses have all been by six points or less. I look for them to take the favored Cougars down to the wire in this one, which should be tight from start to finish. 

This is also a revenge game for Coastal Carolina as they lost by two to Charleston at home last year. It was a dreadful shooting night for the Chanticleers last year, particularly from three-point range where they went 1 for 16. This year's edition is a pretty strong shooting team (46.7% overall) and especially from behind the three-point arc where they are nearly 39% for the season. So Charleston won't be able to count on the same poor shooting tonight. Coastal Carolina is off a nice 69-65 win over NC Central on Sunday (led by as many as 14) and has played plenty of "true" road games so far. In other words, they'll be ready for this one. 

College of Charleston is nowhere near the three-point shooting team that Coastal Carolina is, so that's a big edge for the underdog right there. In fact, Charleston is shooting below 30% from behind the arc at home this year. Coming off B2B road wins, one of them an upset of Virginia Commowealth, I think this sets up as a letdown game for the favorite tonight. The Cougars are coming off a commanding 83-58 win over Siena their last time out (where they shot 61.5% overall!), a performance they won't soon be repeating. Overall, the Cougars' recent shooting simply is not sustainable. Coastal Carolina is a perfect 3-0 ATS as a dog so far this year while Charleston is just 1-3 ATS at home. 8* Coastal Carolina

10* Under Thunder/Kings (10:05 ET): Sacramento has been shredded defensively over its last four games, giving up 130 or more points three times. Note that none of those games went to overtime. Monday, they were caught playing the second game of a back to back and fell into a massive early hole in Minnesota. They trailed by 30 at halftime and ended up losing 132-105. But I don't look for tonight's game to be nearly as high scoring as they face an OKC team that is stout defensively (#1 in the league in efficiency) and often struggles to score on the road. Take the Under.

The Thunder come into this game off a 121-96 win over Chicago. That was actually a revenge spot for them as they'd lost to the Bulls, in Chicago, earlier this month. As I just stated, OKC is the top team in the league in defensive efficiency as they are the only team holding its opponents below one point per possession. At the same time though, we should expect a reduction in their own scoring tonight seeing as they are shooting only 43.9% on the road this year. The Thunder are also the worst three-point shooting teams in the league, in terms of percentage. 

These teams have met twice before this season and both games went Over. However, this is the highest O/U line yet. Sacramento got almost nothing from its starting five in Minnesota Monday, but the bench did score a season-high 78 points. That number will come down rather dramatically here. As for OKC, the Under is 6-1 this season when they are facing a team w/ a winning record and 10-4 when they are on the road. Thunder games don't typically approach the number of total pts the oddsmakers are calling for here. In fact, their road games average "just" 214.3 points. 10* Under Thunder/Kings

8* Ark-Little Rock (8:00 ET): Memphis is no longer the power that it once was under John Calipari. Really, it was a pretty fast decline under Coach Cal's understudy Josh Pastner, who would bolt for Georgia Tech. Tubby Smith replaced him an did a terrible job for two years. Famous alum Penny Hardaway is now in his first season at the helm and the Tigers are 5-5 SU, coming off an emotional loss to in-state rival Tennessee where they scored 92 points at home and still didn't even cover the spread. I believe they are "ripe for the picking" tonight and laying far too many points. 

Little Rock had a far easier time in its last games as they played Miles College and won easily, 67-47. That kind of opponent was a welcome sight for the Trojans, who had just experienced two back-breaking losses in a row. They blew a halftime lead at home to Bradley at home, then lost on a half-court heave to Central Arkansas, also at home. (That was actually their 2nd loss to Central Arkansas in two weeks). While the road has generally been unkind to Little Rock, they did cover here in Memphis last year in a similar price range, losing by only eight points. They are 4-0 ATS the L4 meetings w/ the Tigers. 

Memphis is not good defensively and their struggles extend way beyond giving up 102 pts to Tennessee on Saturday. They're allowing over 80 PPG on the season. The only two teams not to score at least 76 against them were Tennessee Tech and Canisius. Obviously when you are giving up that many points, it's pretty difficult to cover as double digit favorites. Speaking of that, the Tigers have not been DD favorites since the season opener, when they played Tennessee Tech, and they failed to cover in that spot. While Memphis played Saturday, Little Rock has been off for eight days, giving them a bit of an edge there. The Tigers' tempo, which often leads to them not getting the best shot offensively, will be their undoing here. 8* Ark Little Rock

8* Boston (7:35 ET): While these teams definitely reside at opposite ends of the NBA spectrum, recent results have the favorite undervalued coming into this one. For the first time in more than a year, Phoenix comes in on a three-game win streak. They've beaten the Mavs, T'wolves and Knicks, the former two at home. They got the Knicks playing in the second half of a back to back. Here, it's a Boston team coming off a surprise loss in Detroit on Saturday. But before that, the Celtics had won and covered eight straight games. It's a big number tonight, but lay it. 

While the number is big, consider that the Celtics were 10-point favorites in Phoenix a little over a month ago. Now they didn't cover mind you, but they also shot just 40.2% on the road and still won by seven. They actually trailed the Suns by as many as 22 before rallying back and taking the game in overtime.  Boston then made a hard-charge up my own personal power rankings w/ a series of blowout wins during the 8-0 SU/ATS streak. Five times they won by double digits. Most of the teams they blew out had losing records. No one has a worse record in the Western Conference than Phoenix, who is 7-22 SU for the season.

The Suns do have their top two scorers back, Devin Booker and TJ Warren. Their absences were the reason the team hit the skids in late November, at one point losing 10 straight games. The team also just made a trade, shipping Trevor Ariza off and getting Kelly Oubre Jr in return. I don't think that will make much difference. Monday's win over the Knicks marked just the second time all year that Phoenix prevailed in a road game. Boston is outscoring teams by 11 PPG here at home. A giant gap exists between these two teams when it comes to defensive efficiency as the Celtics rank third in the league while the Suns are 27th.  This should end up being a pretty sizable blowout. 8* Boston 

10* Richmond (7:00 ET): This is a total letdown spot for Old Dominion, who comes in off an upset of Syracuse at the Carrier Dome this past weekend. The Monarchs were able to rally from a double digit deficit to win by six, outscoring the Orange by 16 in the 2H. ODU is definitely a hot team right now as they've won six straight (5-1 ATS) and they can certainly play some defense (top 20 in defensive efficiency). But I'm not sure I see them going on the road for a second time in five days and coming away w/ a "W." It's their first time playing B2B road games this year and they're favored in this one. Take the points. 

While it will be difficult for ODU to match its intensity from the last game, Richmond is likely be very motivated tonight, playing at home. First off, they are in off an embarrassing loss from over the weekend as they fell 59-52 here at home to Oral Roberts as 11-pt favorites. In the loss, the Spiders shot below 30% from the field. This after shooting 50% or better in three consecutive games. Adding to the Spiders' motivation here is the fact they have legit revenge from a 19-point loss to ODU last year down in Norfolk. They didn't shoot the ball particularly well there either. It should be a different story tonight. 

It was a season-low in pts scored (52) for Richmond on Saturday. This is a team that averages 72.2 PPG on 47.8% shooting. This does figure to be a pretty low-scoring game, but that favors the underdog. Old Dominion is just 1-6 ATS its last seven time as a road fave of 6.5 to 9 points. They are shooting just 41% for the year and are below 40% away from home while averaging just 61.2 PPG. Meanwhile, Richmond is 6-1 ATS as a home dog in that 6.5 to 9 point range. This is just a bad spot for ODU, especially to be laying points. 10* Richmond 

10* Denver (9:05 ET): Coming into the year, the Nuggets were lauded as one of the deepest teams in the league. We're seeing that depth currently pay off. Despite being w/o three Opneing Night starters right now (Will Barton, Paul Milsap and Gary Harris), the team continues to win and has the best win percentage in the Western Conference (.690). They are 10-2 SU and ATS the L12 games, including B2B impressive wins over OKC and Toronto here at home. Tonight, they look to close out a four-game homestand w/ a perfect record as Dallas comes calling. Denver isn't laying nearly enough here.

I thought the Mavs might improve this season and they have. But the improvement has been even more pronounced than expected (team's record is 15-13 SU) and a lot of that is owed to rookie Luka Doncic. However, Dallas has dropped B2B games and clearly isn't the same team on the road. While they sport a 12-3 SU home record, they're just 2-10 SU away from American Airlines Center. Their most recent road loss came last Thursday ... at Phoenix (scored only 89 pts). Their home record also took a hit over the weekend w/ a loss to Sacramento.

The Mavs aren't exactly at full strength here either as they could be w/o two guards, Dennis Smith Jr and J.J. Barea. As has already been well-established, this team simply isn't very good on the road (outscored by 7.5 PPG) and the Pepsi Center here in Denver is one of the more challenging venues in the league for opposing teams. The Nuggets have some major revenge to exact on the Mavs when it comes to the pointspread as they were 0-4 ATS against them last season (did win both home games SU). Denver is 12-3 SU at home this year, outscoring opponents by double digits. 10* Denver

8* Syracuse (8:00 ET): Entering Tuesday, there are still nine unbeatens left in College Basketball. Eight of them are ranked (St. John's being the exception), but only five truly deserve to be. Those five would be: Virginia, Kansas, Michigan, Nevada & Texas Tech, all of whom I believe are top 10 teams in the country. Another unbeaten is Furman, who did beat Villanova, but should still be considered well below all the other remaining unbeatens. That leaves us two more to hit on, Houston and Buffalo, both of whom are in the Top 25, but don't deserve to be. We've got a chance to play against Buffalo here, on the road against a "name" program, at an extraordinary price. I'm laying the points here. 

Syracuse dropped from the Top 25 due to a loss to another strong mid-major (Old Dominion) on Saturday. The Orange were nine-point favorites and lost to the Monarchs 68-62 as they shot a woeful 33.3% from the floor. Losing to ODU here at the Carrier Dome is clearly "something that shouldn't happen," but it did and not to make excuses, but there is an important caveat. Like Syracuse, ODU ranks pretty high nationally in defensive efficiency. In fact, the Monarchs are top 20 in that category. Syracuse, who is #16 in the country in defensive efficiency itself, won't have to worry about that same kind of suffocating opponent here as Buffalo ranks 54th in def efficiency. Among the unbeatens, only St. John's and Furman are lower. 

Buffalo is a tremendous story at 10-0 and ranked #14 in the country. But there is simply no way that Nate Oats' team is one of the 15 best in the country. Their "best" wins came at West Virginia and on a neutral court vs. San Francisco. Both were narrow victories (by 5 pts or less) and neither opponent is as good as Syracuse. Note Syracuse led ODU by double digits on Saturday before a poor second half. Also note that Buffalo really struggled against a zone defense vs. Southern Illinois Saturday. The SIU zone caused Buffalo to lose a 19-pt lead. We know what kind of defense Syracuse plays (Hint: it's a 2-3 zone) and they've beaten Buffalo 18 straight times dating back to 1963. 8* Syracuse 

8* Memphis (10:35 ET): Unlike the other two games in this package, I don't believe the underdog is the better team here, nor do I give them a great shot at pulling off an outright upset. However, the Grizzlies are getting way too many points here against Golden State, who has simply NOT been the same dominant team as they've been the last four seasons. On Friday night, the Warriors found themselves down in the fourth quarter at Sacramento before going on a 17-2 run to win the game by five points. Even on the road, the Grizzlies are worthy of more respect than what they're getting from the oddsmakers here. Take the points. 

One thing worth being concerned about here is that Memphis has been held under 100 pts for five consecutive games as well as seven of their last eight. That's almost unheard of in today's NBA. You just don't see too many teams scoring only 94.6 PPG over a five-game stretch anymore. But what we don't have to concern ourselves with here is the Grizzlies defense. They lead the Western Conference in points allowed (102.1 PPG) and have held 26 of their 29 opponents below their season scoring average. As for the offense, look for a bounce back tonight as Golden State has slipped tremendously on defense and gives up 111.1 PPG. 

Like most teams, the Grizzlies have struggled the past few years against the Warriors. They've lost 13 of the last 17 meetings, including a 117-101 loss here in Oakland last month. Golden State shot well in that game, but that may not be the case again here. They were 14-pt favorites in that last meeting and did cover, but needed a huge 34-15 third quarter advantage to do so. Memphis is due to start shooting the ball better and is good enough defensively to hang within the number here. 8* Memphis

8* Sacramento (8:05 ET): The Kings continue to be a surprise team as they won last night in Dallas, 120-113. That victory was no small feat. The Mavs had won their previous 11 home games. Sacramento is now three games above .500, something that no one foresaw for this point in the season. While tonight is the second game of a back to back, the oddsmakers sure are being generous considering the Kings just beat the T'wolves 141-130 last week. Dave Joeger's team has covered seven of its last eight games overall and is a very respectable 9-7 SU on the road. Take the points. 

The T'wolves are coming off an 0-4 road trip that included that aforementioned stop in Sacramento. The road has been unkind to this team so far as they're 2-12 SU this season. It's been a different story at home though where they have gone 11-4 SU. However, rarely is Minnesota this large of a favorite. They were 7.5-pt favorites on the road to Phoenix Sat night and lost that game outright. They were also three point favorites last week at Sacramento where they allowed 141 pts in regulation. I don't think a simple switch in venue is enough to overcome the swing in point differential that the oddsmakers seem to be calling for here. Minnesota has had lay eight or more at home two times previous to this and ended up 1-1 ATS. But those games came against Chicago and Cleveland. 

In its last three games, Sacramento has scored 141, 125 and 120 points. They are 4th in the league in points per game. On Friday, they led the Warriors by 10 points in the fourth quarter before succumbing to a better team. I'm not sure Minnesota is a better team that Sacramento as the T'wolves definitely have their issues defensively. They just allowed an average of nearly 120 PPG on the 0-4 road trip w/ opponents shooting 40% from three-point range. These teams are dead even in defensive efficiency rating, but the Kings are significantly higher on offense. 8* Sacramento

8* Utah (8:05 ET): Here's yet another game where I believe the road dog is the better team overall and not getting the proper amount of respect from the oddsmakers. We've all been waiting on Houston to "get it going" and while lately there have been signs that is taking place, I'm still not convinced that they're significantly better than Utah, even playing at home. The Jazz are another team off to a disappointing start as - like Houston - they currently sit outside the top eight in the Western Conference. The Jazz have also already beaten the Rockets - twice - this season. Take the points. 

Now Utah does come into tonight having dropped three of four, including a stop in Mexico City where they fell as six-point favorites to Orlando, by a score of 96-89. Houston, meanwhile, has won and covered three straight. But the Jazz were one-point favorites for each of the first two meetings w/ the Rockets, one of them here in H-town. Now the Rockets played that home game w/o the services of Chris Paul (was suspended) and James Harden left w/ an injury in the 4Q. But there was no such "excuse" when they lost out in Utah earlier this month as they were at full strength. In fact, Utah was w/o one of its top players, Rudy Gobert, who was ejected early in the convincing 118-91 victory.

In the two wins this year, the Jazz have held the Rockets to an average of 90 points. They haven't been that prolific otherwise this season, but the defensive numbers should improve considering this team was #2 in the league in defensive efficiency last season. Houston continues to rely too much on Harden, who has had triple doubles in each of the last two games. In my eyes, this is a pretty even matchup w/ the Jazz being the slightly better team. The homecourt edge is being overvalued as the Rockets are just 7-5 SU here this season. 8* Utah

10* New York (7:35 ET): For the first time in over a year, the Phoenix Suns have won B2B games. Both wins came at home. The first was against a Minnesota team that isn't very good on the road. Then they beat another team w/ a drastic home vs. road split, that being Dallas, on Saturday night. The Suns now have TJ Warren and Devin Booker back in the lineup. Their absences certainly played a role in the team losing 10 straight games from 11/25 to 12/11. But just because both are back doesn't mean the Suns should be getting this much respect on the road. I know the Knicks are banged up, but Phoenix is a league-worst 1-13 SU on the road and last produced a three-game win streak back in March of 2017. Lay the short number here. 

New York did play last night. They lost 110-99 to Indiana, a game where I played the Over. The Over wasn't a winning bet as the Knicks shot just 41.6% from the field. But it was a close game most of the way and still tied 81-81 w/ just under nine minutes remaining. It was down the stretch where the Knicks wilted. Though short-handed and only 2-8 SU the L10 games, this is one of the few matchups tailor-made for NY to win. They've played only 13 of their 31 games at home, so they should be happy to be back at MSG tonight. Again, Phoenix is only 1-13 SU on the road, getting outscored by almost 16 PPG. 

The Suns may be a little short-handed here as well. They finally were able to trade Trevor Ariza (following a comedy of errors) in a three-team deal that netted them Kelly Oubre Jr and Austin Rivers. But there's a good chance neither will play tonight. Even if one or both did, I wouldn't expect very much in the first game w/ a whole new set of teammates. I just think that the Suns being listed as a near pick 'em is pretty unfathomable, especially when you consider they're only 3-11 ATS on the road. After playing three consecutive road games, the Knicks are 2-0 ATS this year. 10* New York

10* Over Knicks/Pacers (5:05 ET): Indiana is working on a few streaks coming into this Sunday afternoon contest. For starters, they've covered their last four games. They've won their last five straight up. But the one we'll focus on today is that they've gone Under nine straight times. That seems like an unsustainable streak to me and the oddsmakers have taken notice, installing a pretty low total for this matchup. It is actually higher than when these teams played back on Oct 31, but that was still early in the season when both were figuring things out. (The Knicks still haven't really figured things out, btw). 

Leading scorer Victor Oladipo is now back for Indiana. His absence for 11 games at least partially explains the Under streak. He has been back for the last two contests, but predictably, it's taking some time to get back "into rhythm." Oladipo is just 10 of 27 from the field, with 26 points, so far. Don't be surprised though if this is the game where he gets it going again. He did nail a couple of clutch threes late in the team's 113-101 win over Philadelphia Friday. That's probably a sign of things to come. 

The Knicks roster resembles a M*A*S*H* unit right now w/ a lot of guys hurt. But on Friday, they were able to rally back from a 21-point deficit to defeat Charlotte in overtime, 126-124. That final score is obviously inflated by five extra minutes of play, but the Knicks clearly have their issues defensively as they give up 115.2 PPG on the year and are 29th in the league in efficiency. The question here is how many points will NY score? Well, they average about 109 (108.9 PPG to be exact) and if they can get to that number, then this game should have no problem going Over. The Knicks are 3-0 Over the L3 games and 10-2 Over when seeking revenge for a home loss. 10* Over Knicks/Pacers

10* St. Mary's (11:00 PM ET): In addition to the wrong team being favored here, this is a horrendous spot for LSU to fly out to Vegas and play a red hot team. You may recall that earlier in the week I was on the Tigers as they went to Houston. They were underdogs against an unbeaten team and I took the points, giving them a great shot at pulling the outright upset. For most of the game, they looked to be the better team, building a lead as high as 15 early in the 2nd half. They still had a double digit lead w/ just under 15 mins to go. But that's when the wheels fell off and they ended up losing by six (covered by 1/2 pt). I don't like LSU at all in this quick turnaround.

Especially when they're laying points to such a hot team. St. Mary's has won and covered four straight and should be the betting favorite here. All four wins have been by double digits, though against competition far weaker than what they'll see here. It's been a nice turnaround for the Gaels after losing four in a row, which I think is still weighing on the oddsmakers' minds here. Tuesday vs. CS-Fullerton, they led by 19 at halftime and never looked back. Jordan Ford scored all 19 of his pts in the 1st half and three other starters would join him in double figures.

The Gaels shoot the ball very well (49.7 FG%) and that's going to mean trouble for a LSU side that really doesn't, especially away from Baton Rouge. The Tigers have won just 1 of 4 away from campus so far, including an outright loss as favorite to Oklahoma State last month. Three-point shooting, as if often is, may prove key in this contest. St. Mary's is shooting 39.1% from behind the arc so far this season. They are allowing just 29.6% shooting. With the way LSU struggles to shoot away from home, I wouldn't be too confident in them being able to "keep up" in this late night showdown. 10* St. Mary's

10* Memphis (8:05 ET): Houston may have some again believing that a turnaround is forthcoming and Memphis is the second night of a back to back. But I feel the Grizzlies are still an outstanding value tonight as a home dog. Last night's 100-97 loss to Miami aside, the Grizz have been one of the league's top defensive teams this year. They've held 25 of 28 opponents below their season average in scoring and are second overall in points allowed. The Rockets aren't the same explosive team on offense that they were a season ago. Therefore, I'll take the points here.

Memphis found itself slightly behind for most of the way last night against Miami. They simply did not shoot the ball very well, especially from three-point range where they were only 8 of 29. However, I suspect a nice bounce-back takes place tonight. The Grizzlies have shockingly been held under 100 pts in six of their last seven games, which you don't really see in this league anymore. But they shoot the ball well at home (46.5 FG%) where they are 9-5 SU and ATS. Houston is just 9-12 ATS as a favorite (10 outright losses) and 5-10 ATS on the road. They've lost six of their last seven road games straight up, even though James Harden has gone for 33 or more points four times in that stretch. 

Although these teams are division foes, it's been more than a year since they actually  faced off. Memphis earned a season split LY, taking the first two matchups, which was before they fell apart (due to injuries) and Houston really took off. I mentioned earlier that Houston is not the same team offensively this year and they're down to 106.6 PPG on the road. If Memphis can hold them below their season average, which history suggests that they will, then I sense a very easy cover here. The Rockets have still allowed more points than they've scored this year, making them  one of just five teams in the Western Conference that can say that. 10* Memphis 

8* NC State (2:00 ET): Every week, when the new NCAAB rankings come out, I like to compare them to my own personal top 25. There's not as much discrepancy as you might think, but there's a always at least a couple teams not ranked by the pollsters that I think deserve to be. One such team is North Carolina State. The Wolfpack have started 8-1 this year, the only loss coming at Wisconsin (by just 4 pts) in the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. Other than that, the competition hasn't exactly been fierce, but it's worth noting that NC State is outscoring teams by 26.9 PPG this year!

This is a neutral site game w/ Penn State, another Big 10 team. The Wolfpack are obviously hoping for a better result than what they got in Madison. They should. Last year in Raleigh, they beat the Nittany Lions 85-78 as a three-point home dog. Both teams are better this season. Penn State is actually top 10 in the country in defensive efficiency right now (per KenPom), but really struggles shooting the ball sometimes. Not in the last game, mind you, when Rasir Bolton's career-high 27 pts led a 76-65 win over Colgate. The team shot 10 of 27 from three-point range as well. But the issue is that the Nittany Lions have shot just 40.7% from the field outside of Happy Valley this year, including a dreadful 29.5% from three-point range.

NC State is 6th in the country in scoring and 14th in offensive efficiency. Defensively, they're not too shabby either, ranking 21st in points allowed. Again, I recognize they haven't taken on the toughest non-conference schedule, but that doesn't change the fact that this is a very good basketball team. They've scored 180 pts the L2 games and are 7-2 ATS overall. The only two times they failed to cover were as big favorites. The Wolfpack shoot the ball very well; better than 50% overall and better than 40% from three-point range. That's too much for Penn State to keep up with, so lay the short number. 8* NC State

8* Sacramento (10:05 ET): In an ultra-deep Western Conference, no one thought the Kings would be able to do much. Virtually all projections before the season had them and the Suns as the bottom two. But here we are in mid-December and they're right in the mix! Back to back wins have them at 15-12 SU and in eighth place in the Confererence. At the same time, Golden State no longer is the infalliable team of the last four years. They're still tied for first, but have already lost 10 times. This line is still based on preseason projections and not where each team is currently at. Take the points. 

Facing a Toronto team that was w/o Kwahi Leonard, the Warriors got embarrassed Wednesday night - at home - losing 113-93. I suspect this line is based on the expectation that it will be an angry Golden State team taking the floor tonight, looking to exact some revenge. But even w/ the team healthier than its been, I don't see it. They escaped w/ a one-point win over the Kings last month. Granted, there was no Steph Curry or Draymond Green. But Kevin Durant did go for 44 points in the game and the Dubs probably won't be getting that kind of individual performance tonight.

Sacramento is 5-1 SU and ATS in December. Admittedly, that includes wins over Phoenix, Cleveland and Chicago, three of the four worst teams in the league. But they also just dropped 141 pts in regulation in their last game, shooting almost 59%, in a double digit win over Minnesota. The Kings are now 7-5 SU at home this year and 8-4 ATS as they've been a dog in every game. Yes, I'm with you in that this team is going to eventually fall off (won't make the playoffs). But they are better than they've been the last couple seasons and no longer a team that's going to get blown out regularly. 8* Sacramento 

10* Green Bay (9:00 ET): WI-Green Bay has been a covering machine this year. An underdog in all but one lined game, the Phoenix are 6-2 ATS on the year, 6-1 when in the underdog role. They've stepped up in class a couple times, playing the likes of Iowa and Oregon on the road, so they certainly shouldn't be intimidated by tonight's visit to Creighton. Outside of an ugly loss at Bowling Green last week, there's nothing to indicate the Phoenix can't hang w/ the heavily favored Blue Jays here. They average 87.2 PPG (13th in the country), so take the double digit spread.

Creighton also isn't shy about scoring as they are averaging 83.6 PPG. But they do come in off B2B losses. Now those losses came against Gonzaga and Nebraska, two very good teams, one of them top five in the country. But w/ another more "high-profile" game (at Oklahoma) looming next week, I think it will be easy for the Blue Jays to overlook tonight's game, which is obviously dangerous when laying double digits. Creighton has not covered either time it was a DD favorite this year, winning those games by only 11 and 6 points and they were playing Western Illinois and East Tennessee State. 

Green Bay plays at one of the fastest tempos in the country (9th in possessions per game) and have scored 100+ pts in two of their last three games. Yes, one of those games was against a non-DI school, but the other came on the road against Belmont, a game where they were 7-pt underdogs. As for the oddsmakers, they are giving Creighton basically the same level of respect they gave Iowa and Oregon against the Phoenix. I don't think that's right. Creighton is highly suspect defensively as it ranks 301st in points allowed & is 128th in efficiency. They were just shredded by Nebraska for 94 pts after giving up 103 to Gonzaga. Giving up a lot of points here will obviously make it difficult to cover such a large spread. 10* Green Bay

10* Under Wizards/Nets (7:35 ET): Two struggling teams meet here. Washington has to be on the short list for biggest disappointment in the league, having started 11-17 SU. Having made the playoffs four of the past five seasons, in-fighting and just bad basketball are threatening to tear this team up. They've lost three in a row coming into tonight, the most recent defeat coming at home to Boston Wednesday night. That game went to overtime, so beware the 130-125 final score. I feel tonight's O/U line is simply too high, thus I'm on the Under. 

Brooklyn has been searching for answers ever since losing leading scorer Caris LeVert to a serious injury. From 11/21 to 12/5, they lost eight in a row, but have since found a spark w/ a three-game win streak (also 3-0 ATS). They certainly didn't appear to miss LeVert Wednesday, winning 127-124 at Philadelphia while shooting nearly 52% from the field. Winning on the road, against one of the top teams in the East, is certainly impressive. Especially when you consider the Sixers shot 54% overall themselves! But the Nets counteracted that by going 14 of 28 from three-point range and 37 of 43 from the FT line. Spencer Dinwiddie went for a career-best 39 pts as well. I suspect none of those numbers will be repeated tonight.

Washington is a perfect 4-0 Under following a game where they allowed 130+ pts this season. Bottom line is that all the numbers from both teams' last games are due to come down. That's both offensively and defensively. Brooklyn will not make nor will they attempt as many free throws. They aren't going to shoot 50% from three-point range on a high volume of attempts either. When they met two weeks ago, it was a rough shooting night all around as the Wiz prevailed 102-88 in D.C. The teams combined to 16 for 59 from three-point range and Brooklyn was just 30 for 81 overall for the game. 10* Under Wizards/Nets 

8* Orlando (9:35 ET): In the writeup for the total, I didn't talk much about the fact this game is being played in Mexico City. While I think it's going to adversely affect both teams on the defensive end, look for the Magic to be less affected and ultimately pull out an easy win. Chicago is a complete mess right now w/ the Boylen situation and players threatening to boycott practice. Overall, the Bulls have dropped 13 of their last 15 games w/ one of the wins coming at home over Phoenix. This is easily one of the worst teams in the league and it's either them and it's hard to fathom taking them getting such a short number. I'll lay the points. 

Orlando has lost its last three games, the last two in blowout fashion. The streak began w/ a tough loss in overtime to Denver, at home. Maybe getting away to Mexico City is what this young team needed. As mentioned in the writeup on the total, the Magic weren't at full strength for the Dallas game and they shot the ball terribly. But, save for Jonathan Simmons, they're back to a full compliment of players here and should shoot the ball a lot better. Despite the three-game losing streak, the Magic are still in 8th place in the East. If they want to be a playoff team, then they need to win games like this. For the year, the Magic are 12-6 ATS vs. teams allowing at least 106 PPG. 8* Orlando 

10* Over Bulls/Magic (9:35 ET): I like both side and total in this game, which takes place in Mexico City. Let's start w/ the total, which I like a little bit more. In one of the more bizarre trends you'll find, the Bulls & Magic have gone Under the total 11 straight times when facing off. I'm going to call for that to end Thursday as this O/U is way too low for pretty much any matchup, by 2018 standards. I realize the Magic are coming off a terrible 76-point showing in Dallas while Chicago is dead last in the league in offensive efficiency. But when you look at the season-long numbers for both sides, it adds up to an Over.

The Under is 8-2 in the Bulls' previous 10 games. They too are off a couple "stinkers" offensively. First, they were held to 77 pts in a humiliating 56-pt home loss to Boston. Then, perhaps equally as embarrassing was getting held to 89 points at home by Sacramento. There's a lot of turmoil going on w/ the Bulls right now as the players haven't exactly taken a "liking" to interim HC Jim Boylen. But both Kris Dunn and Bobby Portis are back from knee injuries and we should start to see some improvement, at least on the offensive end. 

Orlando is off a dreadful shooting night against Dallas where they finished at 36% overall from the field and missed 20 of 28 three-point attempts. You have to figure they're going to shoot better here, even in a relatively unfamiliar environment. Leading scorer Nikola Vucevic, in particular, should have a bounce back game after he scored a season-low eight points on 4 of 15 shooting vs. Dallas. The Magic were also w/o both Mo Bamba (suspended) and third-leading scorer Evan Fournier in that one. Both are expected back Thursday and like Chicago, we should see a rather dramatic increase offensively from the Magic compared to the last game. They average 104.6 PPG while giving up 107.9. Chicago averages 101.8 PPG while giving up 112.9. Both of those points scored vs. allowed averages work out to an Over here. 10* Over Bulls/Magic

8* Under Clippers/Spurs (8:35 ET): We've gotten a glimpse of the "Spurs of old" as in their last two games (both wins), they've held the opposition to just 97 and 86 points respectively. That's a far cry from when Greg Popovich's team was torched for 127 PPG over the previous six games, a stretch where the Over went 6-0. While their defensive efficiency rating has slipped (tied for 26th), perhaps we're seeing the start of a turnaround. For tonight, it helps that the Spurs are at home where they allow "only" 106.6 PPG as opposed to the 118.1 PPG they give up on the road. 

The Clippers have been one of the real surprises in the league so far. At one point, they head the best record in the Western Conference! But after needing OT to get by lowly Phoenix Monday night, the Clips got blown out in Toronto 123-99 the following night. It was their third SU loss in the last four games and they're 0-4 ATS during that same stretch. They've been held under 100 pts in all three losses and have averaged just 98.5 PPG in regulation factoring in the game against the Suns. Right now, LA is w/o Lou Williams, who is their third leading scorer despite being a reserve. 

San Antonio shot a blistering 62% from three-point range in Tuesday's 111-86 win over Phoenix. I wouldn't look for that number to be repeated here. Even though they are shooting the ball really well from distance for the season, the Spurs are still at "only" 38.9% behind the arc. Nor would I look for Bryn Forbes to approach the career-high in points (24) he set vs. Phoenix, a night which included him going 5 for 5 on three-point attempts. Through the years, the Spurs are 6-1 Under in home games where the total is 220 pts or higher. These teams played a high scoring game last month (116-111 Clippers win), but I expect different this time around. 8* Under Clippers/Spurs

8* Over Lakers/Rockets (8:05 ET): When these teams met early in the season, they have little difficulty in going Over a much higher total. Thus, I have no problem taking the Over here. The Lakers lost that early season meeting, 124-115, in Houston. It was part of an 0-3 start to the season for them, but they're the ones that have turned things around, going 17-7 SU since. Meanwhile, the Rockets are still trying to dig themselves out of a hole. They're two games below .500 entering play tonight and second from the bottom in the Western Conference. 

Under has admittedly been the way to go w/ the Lakers over the last month. The Under is 16-4 in their L20 games, a stretch which dates all the way back to Halloween. Their last two games have stayed Under the total, but both came against low-scoring teams, Memphis and Miami . This should be a much different style of game w/ Houston likely trying to push the pace. Also, it's not as if the Lakers are a bad offensive team. They average 113.1 PPG on 47.4%. You may have heard of LeBron James, who has seen improvement in his three-point shooting since coming to LA. James and the Lakers should exploit a Rockets team that is 25th in defensive efficiency.

Houston found itself down double digits at home in the first half to Portland Tuesday night. They roared back for a 111-103 victory, snapping a three-game losing streak. They'd also gone 2-7 SU and ATS the last nine games. I have to say that it's been rather shocking to see how far the Rockets have fallen offensively after being neck & neck w/ Golden State last year in terms of efficiency and points per game. But there's still a lot of time to rectify that fall and the team's home games are already 7-4 to the Over, even if their last one didn't quite get there. Again, the total was much higher when these teams played early in the year (237.5) and the game went Over despite terrible FT shooting from both sides and the Lakers missing 24 of 32 three-point attempts. Six of the last eight meetings have gone Over. 8* Over Lakers/Rockets

8* LSU (9:00 ET): Nine teams are still unbeaten in College Basketball and you can predictably find most of them in the latest Top 25 poll. Even a schools as small as Furman finds itself at #23 in the AP due to the "0" in the loss column. But, make no mistake about it, not all of these unbeatens SHOULD be in the Top 25. Take Houston, for example. The Cougars are 8-0 SU, but I don't believe they're one of the 25 best teams in the country. LSU has been a real "problem opponent" for them the L2 years and I would not be surprised to see the Tigers end UH's unbeaten run for a second time in the last three seasons. Take the points.

Each of the last two years have seen Houston go down to Baton Rouge and suffer an outright loss to LSU as favorites. Two years ago, the Cougars were 5-0 SU and laying 4.5 points. They lost 84-65. Last season, they were 8-2 SU and 2.5-pt favorites as they paid a visit. They lost 80-77. This time, they're hoping the "third time is the charm" at home. Houston does have a few nice wins this year. They beat Oregon here at home, plus they went to BYU and Oklahoma State and prevailed. That OK State win came over the weekend as they held the Pokes to 35.1% shooting in a 63-53 win. They shot 12 of 34 from three-point range themselves. 

LSU is playing its first "true" road game here. They lost - by 13 - to Oklahoma State on a neutral floor. So between that, UH being at home and still unbeaten, it's easy to see why LSU is the underdog here. But the Bayou Bengals have four players averaging double figures and leading rebounder Emmitt Williams is expected back tonight after he missed the 91-50 beatdown of Incarnate Word on Sunday. This team is averaging an impressive 82.1 PPG on 49.7% shooting. So they're very attractive in the underdog role, which they're in for only the second time this year. They covered the first - as 3.5-pt dogs - vs. Florida State. 8* LSU

8* Portland State (9:00 ET): Portland State just got done beating Portland Bible College (really!) and Portland U. I suppose they ran out of teams within the city limits to beat so they'll venture to Provo Wednesday to meet a BYU team that has been taking care of business in its own state. The Cougars hold wins over both Utah State and Utah in the last week, a nice recovery from a three-game slide. It was a really nice win Saturday over the rival Utes, but I look at this matchup as a letdown spot for BYU. It certainly isn't a great situation to be laying this many points.

I'll admit that Portland State's numbers are a bit skewed due to three huge wins over non-board teams. They beat Portland Bible College 123-40, outscoring them 65-18 in the 1st half. Last Thursday's game vs. Portland was obviously a much bigger test and it was one that the Vikings passed w/ "flying colors." They led the Pilots by as many as 19 in the 2H and improved to 4-0 SU at home. This will be just their second "true" road game of the season, the first being a 12-point loss at Stanford. The Vikings have covered 15 of their last 20 non-conference games.

Two of BYU's four losses have come against teams that are still unbeaten, Nevada & Houston. But they've also lost to Illinois State and Weber State, games in which they were favored to win. They gave up 92 and 113 points respectively in those two losses. One did go to overtime, but it's not the one you think as the Cougars really did give up 113 pts in regulation to Weber State. They lost despite shooting 59.4% from the floor as they gave up 66 2nd half points. That's not necessarily indicative of how BYU plays defense; they just held Utah to 59 pts, for example. But I look for them to give up enough tonight that it costs them the cover. 8* Portland State 

10* Cleveland (7:05 ET): For the second time in eight years, the Cavs are having a really tough time in a post-LeBron world. Things aren't quite as bad now as they got in 2010, but still. The team's record is 6-21 SU and they are definitely one of the four worst (but not THE worst) teams in the league right now. Injuries have played a role w/ Kevin Love missing a ton of time and now Tristan Thompson, the other frontcourt stalwart from the four Finals teams, may miss up to a month as well. But despite all that, I still believe Cleveland deserves to be a slight favorite on its home court vs. a New York team I'd also rank in my bottom five. The Knicks have many of the same issues the Cavs do and have lost four straight, also going 0-4 ATS. Take the points here.

New York has lost six of seven overall, the one win coming in overtime against Milwaukee of all opponents. This is a team that does very little well and the good news here for Cleveland is that the Knicks are one of the few teams as defensively inept as they are. Cleveland is 30th (i.e. last) in defensive efficiency. But the Knicks are 28th and have given up an average of 120.6 points the L5 games. This obviously has the potential to be a really high-scoring game and I simply wouldn't trust NY as a road favorite, a role which they've been in only one other time all year (at Atlanta). The Knicks are just 4-11 SU in all road games, losing by an average of nearly 10 PPG. 

Four of the Cavs' six wins this year have come here at home. They won here at the Quicken Loans Arena on Saturday, beating another bad team (the Wizards) 116-101 as 7.5-pt dog. Rookie Collin Sexton had a career-best 29 pts in that game, but unfortunately followed it up w/ a bad shooting night against Milwaukee, a game the Cavs lost 108-92. Expect Sexton and the Cavs to shoot a whole lot better tonight and there's no reason to believe they can't beat the Knicks (who are also w/o their best player, Kristaps Porzingis) at home. 10* Cleveland

10* Columbia (7:00 ET): Columbia got off to a terrible start to the year, losing six of its first seven games. But the Lions have kept a busy schedule here in December and won their last two games, the most recent one being a minor upset of Iona at MSG on Sunday. Now they're set to play a string of road games that will take them through the New Year. Up first is a venture to Chesnut Hill to face Boston College. B.C. has certainly had a tumultuous last week or so. It began w/ an overtime loss, 100-95, to Providence last Tuesday. Then, last weekend's game vs. Texas A&M was cancelled due to mechanical issues w/ the Eagles' plane. Now they have to lay a big number. It's not a good spot and I'll be taking the points in this matchup.

While B.C. is 6-2 SU, they've hardly taken on a challenging schedule. In fact, they've yet to even play a "true" road game. Their "best" win came in the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge over Minnesota. However, they've hardly been blowing teams out. Since opening the season w/ a 20-pt win over Milwaukee, they've yet to win another game by more than 15 pts. That's key considering the number here. And an outright loss wouldn't be unprecedented considering the Eagles did lose to IUPUI as 16-pt chalk last month. Against Providence, they didn't shoot the ball well, but the bigger problem was giving up 87 pts in regulation. Leading scorer Ky Bowman has been in a slump, shooting less than 37% from the floor in three straight games. 

Columbia was able to defeat Iona despite not having its leading scorer Mike Smith. It appears as if he will suit up on Wednesday. Note that this is a revenge game for the Lions as they lost here LY, 81-66. That was despite attempting only TWO free throws the entire game! Something else to consider here is that Columbia's record could easily be a whole lot better. They have suffered three losses by a total of 4 pts (all by 2 pts or less). They have yet to lose any game by more than 11 points. So just like B.C. really hasn't been blown out, Columbia really hasn't been blown out. 10* Columbia

10* Portland (8:05 ET): Houston continues to be vastly overrated in the marketplace. It's easy to understand why. They won 65 games last year and it was them, not the Warriors, who went into the playoffs as the #1 seed in the Western Conference. They even took the Warriors to a deciding 7th game in the WCF and even had a big lead w/o Chris Paul. But something is very different this year. While Paul and James Harden are still here, much of the supporting cast has been stripped away. What's left is a below .500 club that is second from the bottom in the Conference and they might as well be "last" considering that Phoenix is the one team below them. The Rockets simply should NOT be favored by this many over a Portland team that is just plain better than them. Take the points.

Truthfully, neither of these teams has played very well of late. While Houston is just 2-7 SU and ATS in its last nine games, Portland went through its own ATS "dry spell," failing to cover in eight straight games at one point. But they've recovered somewhat w/ B2B wins at home, both of which saw them cover the spread easily. The first was against lowly Phoenix, a game which the Blazers got out to a 36-9 lead. Then came a 113-105 win over Minnesota on Saturday. CJ McCollum is now back in the lineup, so Portland is at full strength here. They've already won here in Houston once this year, doing so by a score of 105-84 back on October 30th. Admittedly, James Harden did not play in that game. 

When the Rockets won five in a row heading into Thanksgiving, it looked as if they'd righted the ship and the early season struggles had passed. But, now they've gone just 2-7 SU and ATS the L9 games and it's pretty clear that there are some significant issues w/ this team. They've never been known for defense, but last year saw them finish the regular season ranked 6th in efficiency. This year, they're down all the way to 25th. Defensive rebounding is another issue as they're 29th in that category. Chris Paul is shooting only 43.1% from the floor, his lowest percentage since he was a rookie. And the team's bench is last in the league in scoring. Overall, it's just not hard to see why this team is 7-12 ATS as a favorite this season w/ 10 outright losses. 10* Portland

8* Pennsylvania (7:00 ET): Two of Philly's Big 5 meet up Tuesday night at The Palestra. Both Villanova and Penn are 8-2. Villanova is the defending National Champions, yet this season got off to a bit of a dicey start. They were 2-2 after suffering B2B embarrassing losses to Michigan and Furman (both at home). Losing to Michigan isn't that embarrassing, but losing by 27 certainly was. The Wildcats were 16-pt favorites agianst Furman. However, six wins later (the last three all coming against the other Philly area rivals) and Nova is back in the top 25. They deserve to be, but this won't be an easy game against Penn. I'm taking the points. 

Villanova is obviously Philly's finest, but a case can be made that Penn is #2. The Quakers have won four in a row, including an 89-75 victory in this gym over Miami FL. So they certainly won't be intimidated. They too are off a win over a city rival, in their case a bad LaSalle team, whom they defeated 83-65 as 5.5-pt chalk. Note Nova was a 17-pt fave @ LaSalle, yet only won by seven. That was their only other "true" road game as well. Subsequent wins over Temple and St. Joe's (at home) have made it 25 straight Big 5 victories. This team is now 29-14 ATS its last 43 games overall. But I stand by my earlier assertion that this will not be an easy game for the favored Wildcats. 

Early in the year, Penn lost Ryan Betley, a 3-pt specialist and all-Ivy League Player. But the team hasn't missed a beat. Freshman Michael Wang has picked up the slack, shooting a ridiculous 57.4% from the field. Penn is a very good shooting team overall, making nearly 50% of its shots, including almost 40% from three-point range. That will go a long way when taking points. The Quakers are 4-0 at home, averaging a ridiculous 96 PPG on 56.3% shooting. Obviously, they won't approach those numbers tonight, but they should still score enough to cover. Villanova did not shoot well in its last game (37.5%). 8* Pennsylvania 

8* Phoenix (9:05 ET): The Suns have been beyond atrocious recently, but that has a lot to do w/ the fact they've been without their top two scorers, TJ Warren and Devin Bookier. Warren is expected back tonight and while there's no disputing just how ugly it's been in Phoenix this year, I think the team is more than capable of staying inside a double digit number at home. The Clippers, are one of the bigger surprises in the league so far, but they've been held 100 pts in B2B losses. They just lost as 9.5-pt home favorites to Miami and are only 7-7 SU on the road.

The Suns are off to the worst start in franchise history at 4-22 SU. They've lost eight in a row, also going 0-8 ATS. Their last loss was also at home to Miami, although they were 8.5-pt dogs and the final score was 115-98. Still, I can't harp enough on the fact that they've been down their top two scorers. Warren will only play limited minutes tonight, but his 17.2 PPG scoring average will be welcomed. I just have to think that this team is due to - at the very worst - play a close game tonight. 

The Clippers beat the Suns at home a couple weeks ago, 115-99. But it was a tie game at halftime. That also happens to be the last time both Warren and Booker suited up for the Suns. I realize that this is a team with very little going for it right now, but they're still a group of professionals w/ some pride. Losing a seventh straight time by double digits is almost unheard of, even for the worst teams in this league. I just have the feeling that the oddsmakers are being a little bit too generous in this one. 8* Phoenix

8* Orlando (8:35 ET): Dallas has won 9 in a row at home and their last win here was special for me as it was a *10* Top Division Play that saw them upset Houston. Overall, the Mavs have won 11 of their last 13 games as they look to be one of the more improved teams in the league this year. But as good as they've been at home so far, they're a team that still isn't favored all that often. Tonight will mark just the 4th time they've been favored to win a game by more than three points. Likely w/o starting PG Dennis Smith Jr for a third straight game, I see them as a ripe for a letdown tonight. 

Orlando is also improved this year, though you wouldn't know it from the result of their last game. They lost by 22 at home to Indiana, who was w/o Victor Oladipo. It was the Magic's second straight loss as Denver also beat them at home last Wednesday. But prior to those consecutive setbacks, the Magic were on a real roll at the betting window, covering 11 of 13 games. They are 9-2 ATS on the road this year and 13-7 ATS overall when taking points. Leading scorer Nikola Vucevic is going to play despite suffering an ankle injury in the game vs. Indiana Friday night.

The Magic are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS this season when coming off B2B losses. As well as the Mavericks have played at home this year, I simply do not like them laying this many points. The Magic have actually played significantly better defense on the road than at home. They are allowing just 104.7 PPG as a visitor as opposed to 111.1 PPG at home. I just see this as a game where is Dallas is likely to have a letdown.  8* Orlando 

8* Under Jazz/Thunder (8:05 ET): I've admittedly been on the wrong end of a couple Jazz totals in the last week. Both games were against the Spurs, the more recent one taking place just last night. After they scored 139 points to ruin my Under last Tuesday, Utah finished w/ only 97 Sunday to thwart my Over play. (For the record, I was correct in taking the Under when they played Houston Thursday night. That was a 118-91 win). Tonight, they're in Oklahoma City to face a Thunder team that tops the league in defensive efficiency, allowing fewer than one point per possession (only team in the league that can claim that). Under is pretty easy call for me here. 

The Thunder will likely not be in a pleasant mood entering this game as they're looking to rebound from an embarrassing defeat to lowly Chicago on Friday. They gave up 114 pts to a 6-win team that ranks last in the league in offensive efficiency. A really poor 1st half is what cost them as they held the Bulls to just 44 pts after halftime. The loss was only the 4th in the L20 games for OKC, who previously had gone 13-0 SU vs. sub-.500 foes. I expect the defense to be a lot better here than it was in the 1st half vs. Chicago. The 114 pts scored by the Bulls was the most given up by OKC in any game in almost three weeks. The Bulls' 52.4% shooting was the highest percentage by any opponent in nearly four weeks. 

Utah was one of the top defensive teams in the league last year. They finished #2 in efficiency, but have slipped somewhat this year down to 11th. They are 20th in offensive efficiency, which is actually only one spot below the Thunder. Both teams also rank near the bottom of the league in three-point shooting percentage w/ OKC 28th at 31.7%. But while the Thunder are lacking on the offensive end when it comes to three-point shooting, they make up for it by defending the arc well. They allow just 32.8% shooting from distance for the year, which ranks right near the top of the league. The percentage is even lower here at home. 8* Under Jazz/Thunder

8* Detroit (7:05 ET): The Pistons are 0-4 SU/ATS their L4 games, including a loss at home last night to New Orleans. Their rotation is rather thin due to injuries, so few will give them a chance this evening against a Philadelphia team that is 13-1 SU at home (only loss is to Cleveland!). Plus, the Sixers just beat them in Detroit, 117-111 Friday night. While the Pistons had to play last night, Philly hasn't had to play since. But I believe the Pistons will keep this one close, even having a chance at possibly stealing the game outright! Take the points. 

In that game Friday night in the Motor City, the Pistons were 2.5-point favorites. They lost, so there has to be some adjustment by the oddsmakers, but they've shifted their respective views of the teams too far, in my opinion. Granted, the Sixers won that last meeting despite Joel Embiid not even suiting up. But they actually trailed by 12 at halftime. The Pistons wound up having an off-shooting night at 41.6% from the field and they missed 28 of 35 three-point attempts. This is a better team than what they've shown the L4 games. They're also 2-0 ATS when playing the second night of a back to back this year.

Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS when its off a SU win as a dog this season. Having just beaten the Pistons w/o Embiid, I can see them being overconfident coming into tonight. This is actually the 4th time these teams have met this season. Detroit took the first meeting, 133-132, in overtime. But they not only lost Friday, but here in Philly last month by 10 points. Still, I expect a focus effort from the road dog tonight. This is a team desperate for a win and they're not about to get blown out. Seven of Philadelphia's previous nine wins have come by single digits. 8* Detroit

10* Over Jazz/Spurs (7:05 ET): Earlier this week, I made the mistake of playing a matchup between these two Under the total. Pretty clearly, I had underestimated just how much San Antonio has regressed this season. The play also flew in the face of the recent history between the teams as now eight of the past nine matchups have gone Over the total. While the numbers are now higher, I learned from my mistake and expect that trend to continue. The Spurs have seen the Over cash in six straight games, as well as 10 of the last 11, due in large part to the massive defensive regression. Utah hung 139 points on them Tuesday. Of course, San Antonio can score too; something that was readily apparent in a 133-120 win over the Lakers on Friday. Take the Over here.

Utah followed up its win over San Antonio by beating Houston on Thursday, 118-91. I did win w/ the Under in that game as they held the Rockets below 39% from the field. Key was forcing 22 Houston turnovers and turning them into 33 points. The most impressive thing about the win is that the Jazz did it mostly w/o Rudy Gobert, who was ejected in the 2nd quarter for arguing with the officials. After a mostly disappointing first quarter of the season, the team has now won 4 of its last 5. Now they'll look to replicate Tuesday's shooting performance against San Antonio when they were 60% overall from the field and made a season-high 20 three-pointers. Utah is 6-1 Over this season following a double digit win.

The Spurs were down 12 in the 4Q to the Lakers on Friday, but rallied back for a double digit win on the back of eight players scoring in double figures. One of them was DeMar DeRozan, who went for a season-high 36 pts. The bench also outscored the Lakers' reserves 54-26. But I still worry about this team defensively as they've slipped all the way down to 28th in efficiency, a stunning collapse and completely uncharacteristic of what we've seen during the Greg Popovich era. Only Phoenix and Cleveland are lower in defensive efficiency right now. But the Spurs aren't the only team to have regressed defensively in 2018-19. Utah was #2 last season and now #10. San Antonio is 11-3 Over this season in games where they are the underdog. 10* Over Jazz/Spurs

10* Washington State (7:00 ET): This should be an extremely easy game for Wazzu at home. Both of the Cougars losses this year have been on the road. Here in Pullman, they're already 5-0 SU and averaging 89.2 PPG. They've covered the spread in all five games as well. Now the competition hasn't exactly been the stingiest, but it's not like we should expect much here from a bad Montana State side that has won only two games so far. The Bobcats have had to play most of their games on the road so far and are 0-5 SU outside of Bozeman, losing by an average of almost 23 PPG. I'll lay the points here. 

In its last game, Washington State won by 20 over Idaho. They were laying a similar number to what they are here and scored 90 points. They've now scored at least 80 in every home game. That kind of offensive prowess is going to put a lot of pressure on Montana State here as the Bobcats have topped 70 in only one road game so far (at Colorado State) and were held to just 35 by Indiana. A big key here (as it usually is) will be shooting from behind the arc. Wazzu is taking nearly 30 three-point shots per game, which is top 10 in the country. That high volume is going to be problematic for their opponent tonight, who often struggles to defend the 3-pt line.

Montana State has not played in 11 days, so don't be surprised if they come out rusty. Furthermore, they're off a rare win as well. They beat North Dakota in a close game, one that saw them rally back from a halftime deficit. The 81-76 win marked MSU's second fewest points allowed in a game this season, which is kind of frightening. The only opponent to score less against them was Presentation College, a NAIA school who went for 68. The Bobcats are allowing 84.1 PPG, which is bottom 15 in the country right now. I don't think the long layoff is going to be a benefit, rather it's more likely to be a hindrance. Washington State has covered 10 of its last 11 games against teams allowing 77 or more points per game. 10* Washington State

8* San Diego State (10:30 ET): Both teams are off a loss here. San Diego State's was more shocking as they fell as six-point favorites to San Diego. Cal's loss also occurred at home, but they were seven-point dogs to a good San Francisco team. I don't know if the Bears are thinking about switching conferences (only kidding!), but they've actually taken on three straight West Coast Conference teams. While they did beat a bad Santa Clara squad, the Bears not only lost to USF, but at St. Mary's as well. Of course, the team SDSU just lost to also hails from the WCC. While it may seem like a relatively even matchup Sat night, I still believe the Aztecs have a significant edge and thus I'll lay the short number. 

These schools have met each of the last two seasons, right around this time of year. It was a neutral site game that San Diego State won back in 2016, 77-65 as 6.5-pt underdogs. Last year, Cal won on the road, 63-62 as 16.5-pt dogs. So it's a big revenge game for the Aztecs. Lucky for them, Cal has won just two of its eight games this season w/ five of those losses coming by double digits. It's a real bad scene in Berkeley right now as both wins came against teams outside my top 200. This team does not defend well as they've given up at least 76 points in all six losses. 

I mentioned earlier that SDSU suffered an outright loss in their last game, to San Diego. Looking at the second half of that game, it's pretty stunning how the Aztecs fell apart. They led by seven at halftime, but were outscored 47-28 in the second half. That kind of defensive collapse just doesn't happen w/ this team very often as opponents are shooting less than 40% against the Aztecs for the season. Fortunately, SDSU is not only 26-9-4 ATS off an ATS loss, but also 5-1 ATS off their previous six SU losses. This year has already seen them respond from a couple blowout losses (to Duke and Iowa State) w/ nice wins and covers over Xavier and Jackson State. Make no mistake about it, the Aztecs are the significantly better team here. 8* San Diego State

10* Dallas (6:05 ET): At this point, I think it's safe to say "Houston, we have a problem" as the Rockets continue to struggle at the outset of the 2018-19 season. Thursday's 27-point loss in Utah marked not only the second straight game where the team failed to score 100 points, but it was also their sixth loss in the last eight games overall. They've been even worse at the pay window recently, going 2-7 ATS their L9. Tonight, they're matched up w/ a Dallas team that has been absolutely sensational at home this year (10-2 SU AND ATS), yet still laying points. I'll go w/ the Mavs as home underdogs in this one as they recently beat the Rockets - in Houston - by 20 pts. 

That 20 pt win in H-town saw Dallas shoot a blistering 54.1% for the game, including 17 of 34 three-pointers. They scored 74 pts in the 1H and it was never close after that. As you can probably tell, this is a much improved team this year after the 24-win disaster of a season ago. They are already half way to that win total this year and we've played only a quarter of the games. The team is coming off their own blowout loss (26 pts), to New Orleans, but that was on the road where the improvement hasn't really translated. At home, they've won eight in a row, beating the likes of Oklahoma City, Golden State, Boston, the Clippers and Portland. They average 115.2 PPG here. 

Meanwhile, a Houston team that led the league w/ 65 regular season wins last year has fallen off rather dramatically. They've been held under 100 pts seven times, which is more than double the number of times that happened over the course of 82 games LY. James Harden & Chris Paul went a combined 10 for 27 against Utah and the supporting cast simply is not as strong this year. Right now, the Rockets are one of only four teams in the Western Conference that have been outscored on the season. That puts them in a rather precarious position as the only team below them in the standings is Phoenix! The Rockets have not fared well on the road this year, going just 5-9 ATS, including 3-6 as the favorite. They're also 2-7 ATS after allowing 115+ pts in their last game. 10* Dallas

10* Loyola Chi (4:00 ET): With all due respect to Sister Jean, we all knew Loyola Chicago would take a step back this year. I mean, how could they not after that incredible Final Four run last March? The Ramblers went an amazing 32-6 SU last season en route to San Antonio, but knew they wouldn't be sneaking up on anyone this year and have already dropped four games. One of them, I was against them in what was a huge revenge game for their opponent (Nevada). The Ramblers now come into this game as losers of three of their last four, having lost outright as a 5-pt home favorite to Ball State on Wednesday. 

Maryland is one of EIGHT Big 10 teams currently ranked in the top 25. That conference is absolutely loaded this year as there's a 9th team - Indiana - probably worthy of Top 25 consideration as well. While I just said that Loyola Chi "wouldn't be sneaking up on anyone" this year, don't be surprised if the Terps aren't taking them as seriously as they should. Maryland is coming off a series of high-profile games, all of them going down to the wire, and may not have as much "left in the tank" as they'd like. They just lost at Purdue on Thursday by two. It was their second loss in three games as they fell by five to Virginia as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. This is a young team. Seven of the top eight players in the rotation are either freshman or sophomores. 

Note this is technically a neutral site game, taking place in Baltimore. I think that's a big break for Loyola not having to go into College Park. As for those eight ranked Big 10 teams, I happen to think Maryland is the weakest of the lot and probably shouldn't even be ranked. Missing eight of its final nine shots, the Terps shot less than 30% in the second half vs. Purdue and that loss will be hard to shake. Meanwhile, Loyola is an underdog for only the 2nd time this year (first was vs. Nevada) and should be motivated back in a more comfortable role. Ball State shot 57% against them, which isn't happening again here. The Ramblers are 15-7 ATS when taking points the L3 seasons. They are also 4-2 SU L6 vs. the Top 25 and 10-2 SU L12 on a neutral court. Take the points. 10* Loyola Chi

10* Under Raptors/Nets (7:35 ET): Toronto has the best record in the league currently at 21-5 straight up. They've lost just one time in the L10 games and it was to Denver, the team w/ the best record in the Western Conference. That defeat took place on Monday (at home), but the Raptors quickly rebounded w/ a 113-102 win over Philadelphia. Tonight, the opponent is much easier, but they have to hit the road where on average their games are a little bit lower scoring. Toronto's working on a three-game Under streak as they head to Brooklyn on Friday and I think it continues. 

The Nets lost an absolute heartbreaker Wednesday night, falling here at home to the Thunder 114-112. It's not just that they fell only two points short against one of the best teams in the league. Brooklyn led by as many as 23 points. They were outscored 39-19 in the 4th quarter w/ Russell Westbrook scoring 25 by himself. Though the Nets still covered (were 6 pt underdogs), the SU loss was their eighth in a row. I will point out that five of those have been by six points or less, so it's not as if the team is being blown out. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they're competitive again tonight. 

But this is a play on the total, so we need to talk about scoring. Brooklyn's slide coincides w/ the loss of their leading scorer, Caris LeVert, back on November 12th. The team is just 2-10 SU since. Not having LeVert is clearly affecting the team down the stretch of games as they are shooting just 39.5% in the fourth quarter their L5 games at home. Over the L5 games overall, they are averaging just over 102 PPG. Toronto has less issues scoring, but it does average several points fewer per game on the road as opposed to at home. This total is simply too high. 10* Under Raptors/Nets

10* Under New Mexico/St. Mary's (7:00 ET): This game is being played at Staples Center as part of the Air Force Reserve Hall of Fame Classic. It is the first of three games tonight in LA w/ the "main event" being a battle of unbeatens between Nevada & Arizona State. To me, it's the matchup where there's the most value and that value exists with the total. New Mexico has gone Over in all six games this year. St. Mary's has gone Over in every game in which it has been favored (7x total) and they are laying points here. But I see these streaks coming to an end Friday as this O/U line is simply too high. I'm on the Under. 

New Mexico just gave up 100 pts in its last game, a 35-point loss to in-state rival New Mexico State. That certainly has played a major role in why this O/U line is so high. In addition to playing horrendous defense, the Lobos shot just 28.1% from the floor. Now they should obviously shoot better tonight at Staples, but at the same time, they're not going to give up nearly as many as points. For as many as they gave up Tuesday, there were still "only" 165 total pts scored in the game. That was also their second time facing NMSU already, the first being a 98-94 shootout (lost) in Albuquerque. Tonight will be the toughest opponent they have had to face all year, at least defensively speaking. 

St. Mary's had no problems making shots in their last game as they sank 59% of their field goal attempts in a 93-61 blowout of Bethune-Cookman. It was their third straight game shooting 50% or better and second in a row hovering around 60%. That's really impressive, but also not sustainable. Also, all three of those games were played at home. I referenced the Gaels' defense earlier and they are holding opponents to just 30.4% shooting from three-point range. That's key here as this is the highest total for any SMU game so far this season. In it's two neutral site games thus far, St. Mary's has shot just 33% and averaged 60 pts. Playing in a larger "gym" than usual, look for both side to struggle shooting the basketball and the Over streaks to come to an end. 10* Under New Mexico/St. Mary's

8* Under Rockets/Jazz (10:35 ET): Two Western Conference teams that are desperate for a win face off tonight in the second game of the TNT doubleheader. Both Houston and Utah are surprisingly below .500 as we've passed the quarter pole of this season. I think it's safe to call them the two biggest disappointments in the league right now, at least given preseason expectations. When they last met, it was a very low-scoring affair w/ the Jazz winning 100-89 on the road. I think we're in store for another relatively low-scoring game tonight, maybe not quite as low-scoring as the first go-around, but the Under is still the play here.

I played both of these teams Under the total in their last games. With Houston, it worked out well. They were held to 91 points, including just 29 in the second half, in a loss to Minnesota. That result snapped the Rockets' eight-game Over streak. Now certainly this team is fully capable of producing far more than 29 points in a half. But for tonight, I expect a more even distribution of scoring across the two halves. They had 62 pts in the 1H vs. Minnesota Monday night and that's about as unlikely to be repeated here as the 29 pt 2H. Also in handicapping this rematch, one thing that's different about the Rockets from the last time they faced Utah is no Carmelo Anthony (thank goodness for that!). 

Playing Utah Under the total on Tuesday did not work out so well for me. They blistered the suddenly defensively incompetent Spurs for 139 points on 60.7% shooting. Perhaps more impressive is that the Jazz also shot better than 60% from three-point range in the contest, making a season-high 20 three-pointers! They aren't likely to repeat that performance though as for the season, the team shoots 46.4% overall and 33.8% from 3-pt range. Those aren't terrible numbers, just pretty average. I expect the three-point shooting in particular to decrease here, both in terms of percentage and volume. While Utah may not be as stout defensively this year compared to 2017-18, they certainly held Houston in check the first time. It's shocking to see the Jazz only 3-6 SU at home this year and perhaps almost as surprising that the Over is 8-1 in those games. But Houston is 24-11 Under the L35 times it has been an underdog, which isn't often. 8* Under Rockets/Jazz 

10* UC Riverside (10:00 ET): UC Riverside isn't having the best start to the season (just 2-7 SU). But here's the thing: that was to be expected. They haven't been favored in a single game and they've played just twice at home. Once was a win against non-DI team UC Merced. The other was a 10-pt loss to Cal Baptist. The Highlanders' only other win was an upset (as 5.5-pt dogs) of Elon in a Holiday Tournament. They're finally back home Thursday, hosting a Pepperdine team that is laying WAY too many points considering they aren't very good either. Take the points in this one.

The Waves of Pepperdine do own a mark of 5-1 ATS. They're also 5-3 straight up. But they just dropped a non-lined game to CS-Northridge, at home, 90-83. Pepperdine blew a double-digit lead as defense continues to be a problem for them. They're allowing 77.6 PPG so far, which is just awful, and one of their wins (Miami OH) saw them miraculously rally back from an 18-point deficit in the second half to win 88-80. Something that you may not be aware of is that the Waves won all of six games LY. So Lorenzo Romar has the program at least pointed in the right direction in his second stint coaching the team. 

But this is just the second "true" road game for the Waves w/ the first being an 88-80 loss to Northern Colorado. It'll also mark the first time they've been a "true" road favorite since the 2015-16 season! They've won a total of just 15 games the past two seasons and are 1-27 SU their last 28 road games! So you can see where I'd be of the belief that this is far too many points for them to lay. UC Riverside isn't exactly Duke, but they are sufficient enough to cover this generous spread. The Highlanders also have revenge here for an 11-pt loss LY at Pepperdine where the Waves took and made 13 more free throws. Pepperdine does deserve to be favored here, but not by this much. 10* UC Riverside

8* Over Spurs/Lakers (10:35 ET): Well, it was a bad read last night (by me) w/ the Under on Spurs-Jazz. Clearly, San Antonio's defense has regressed far more than anyone could have imagined. It was their third time giving up 130+ points in the last six games. (By the way, they also topped 130 themselves once during that stretch). Bottom line is that a team who for so long was a mainstay at the top of the defensive efficiency ratings, is no longer any good on that end of the floor. Tonight, they face a Lakers team that has gone Under in its last eight game as well as 14 out of its last 16. A matchup with the Spurs is just the recipe to change that. Take the Over here.

After a slow start (should have been expected), LeBron has the Lakers playing pretty well of late. The team has won three straight, all by double digits and all at home. They're actually up to fifth in the Western Conference right now. Tonight's spread might be an overlay as the only teams they've been asked to lay more points to in a game this season are Atlanta and Phoenix. Also, the Lakers are 0-2 against the Spurs this year w/ those two losses coming by a total of five points. The first one was an absolute shootout w/ the Spurs winning 143-142 in overtime (LeBron missed two free throws late). The rematch, which took place in San Antonio, was a lower-scoring affair w/ SA prevailing 110-106. 

The total for this game is a lot lower than it was for the second meeting. That's probably because of the recent rash of Lakers' Unders. But San Antonio is 8-1 Over its last nine games and giving up a ton of points on the road this year. The Lakers are 14-6 SU since that first loss to the Spurs and should have a productive offensive night here. They scored 120 Sunday vs. a lousy Phoenix team. Note they were w/o third leading scorer Brandon Ingram for both previous matchups vs. the Spurs. The fact that San Antonio is in the second night of a back to back won't mean much here as HC Greg Popovich pulled his top two scorers - DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge in the 3Q last night. It was only two games ago that the Spurs had a historically great shooting night, becoming the 1st team in 23 years to shoot better than 60% overall, 70% from three-point range and 90% from the FT line. The Over is 9-3 when they are an underdog this season. 8* Over Spurs/Lakers

10* Nebraska (9:00 ET): I'm alot higher on this Cornhuskers team than most people. They finally cracked the Top 25 this week, but probably should be a lot higher. They're 7-1 SU w/ the only loss coming to a very good Texas Tech team, at a neutral site, on a poor shooting night. I took them when they went to Clemson and won as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. They followed that up by beating Illinois 75-60 in the Big 10 opener. They jumped all over the Illini, racing out to a 13-2 lead and never trailed. They never led by less than nine points the entire second half. The biggest key was the frequency w/ which they got to the FT line. They went 25 of 30 from the line for the game. For the year, Nebraska is now outscoring teams by 23.8 points per game.

Minnesota is a team I faded in their Big 10 opener. The Gophers had to go to Columbus to face Ohio State and lost 79-59. The game played out similarly to Nebraska-Illinois, only w/ the Gophers playing the role of the Illini. The score was 26-7 a little over 10 minutes in and never really got close after that. Perhaps the most incredible thing of all is that Minnesota missed all 13 three-point attempts it took. At home, that's highly unlikely to be repeated, but note Nebraska can be just as effective defensively as Ohio State. In fact, the Cornuskers rank slightly higher than the Buckeyes in defensive efficiency (17th vs. 21st) and scoring (4th vs. 17th).

Nebraska is 6-1-1 ATS on the season. Thus, you'd think they'd carry more respect in the marketplace. Yet they're only a small favorite against an inferior foe that just got blown out. I realize it's a "true" road game, in conference, but the Cornhuskers already went to Clemson (ranked at the time) and won. Minnesota has been dreadful in its two road games while going 6-0 SU at home or neutral sites. But even the home court can't save them here as Nebraska will own a substantial edge on the glass and their smothering defense figures to turn the Gophers over w/ great regularity. Something to keep in mind is that the 'Huskers won here LY, 91-85 as a 3.5-pt dog.  10* Nebraska 

8* Orlando (7:05 ET): Something is going to have to give in this battle of hot teams. Denver just might be the best team in the West right now as they've won and covered six straight, many of them against top tier teams. They just beat Toronto, on the road, 106-103 as seven-point underdogs. Not to be outdone, Orlando has been on quite the ATS role itself. Last night's outright win in Miami puts them at 11-1-1 ATS their L13 games. They are 8-5 straight up during that same stretch. Coincidentally, the only game they lost ATS was against Denver back on November 23rd. That was the start of the six-game road trip that just concluded last night. I look for a much better result in tonight's rematch as the Magic are back home. Take the points. 

Even in a weak Eastern Conference, Orlando has not made the playoffs since Dwight Howard left town. That's a long time. It's been six years and only Sacramento and Phoenix have longer active droughts. But w/ LeBron James out West, the East is more wide open this year and the Magic have a legit shot at finishing in the top eight. Last night's win got them to .500 and they're currently in seventh place (actually lead the Southeast Division!). They beat the Heat by allowing just 90 points, their second straight strong defensive performance, although the other one was against a short-handed and downtrodden Suns team. It also helped they shot 50% from three-point range last night. For a third time, they turned in a quarter w/ a point differential of +18 or better.

Denver obviously presents a greater challenge. The Nuggets have won and covered the L5 meetings w/ the Magic, including the 25-point beatdown in the Mile High City two weeks ago. That game was relatively close until the 4th quarter. But this one occurs smack dab in the middle of a five-game road trip for the Nuggets. While they have been on a roll, do note that four of the six wins in this Denver win streak have come by single digits and 6 of the team's 16 wins this season have been by five points or fewer. Also, they won't have leading scorer Gary Harris Jr in the lineup tonight as he left the Toronto game Monday w/ a hip injury. Though they failed to cover against Denver the first time, Orlando is 12-5 ATS as an underdog this season otherwise. All signs point to this rematch being a lot closer w/ the Magic having a great shot at pulling the outright upset. 8* Orlando

10* Under Spurs/Jazz (9:05 ET): These teams played four times last year and the Over hit in three of the games. But those were low totals, all sub-200 pts, a range you're probably not going to see very much this season. Alas, it's a much higher total this go around for the Spurs & Jazz, which also makes sense when you consider how both teams have regressed defensively. Last year, these teams were 2nd (Jazz) and 4th (Spurs) in defensive efficiency. This year, they've slipped to 13th and 27th respectively. The Over has hit in seven of San Antonio's last eight games as they've regressed to a shocking degree. This all being said, I still think tonight's number is too high. Take the Under.

After giving up 128 or more points three times in a four-game stretch, it was time for the Spurs to give their opponents a taste of their own medicine as they dropped 131 in a win over Portland on Sunday. They got a season-high 36 points from DeMar DeRozan and shot a blistering 60.2% from the floor overall. Even more ridiculous is how prolific they were from three-point range. They attempted only 15 shots from behind the arc, but made 11 of them! Needless to say, they probably won't shoot that high of a percentage from distance in any other game the rest of this season. Something else that happened in that game is the teams combined to go 36 of 38 from the free throw line. That's also highly irregular in today's NBA. Bottom line is that all the offensive numbers from the Spurs' last game are due to drop severely. It was the 1st time since 1995 that a team shot 60% overall, 70% from 3-pt range & 90% from the FT line. Overall, their recent numbers - both offensively and defensively - are way out of whack. 

I think it's fair to say that Utah has been a giant disappointment so far this year. With San Antonio, you knew they'd fall off some w/ the entire core group of players from the last few years "vacating the premsis." But the Jazz came into 2018-19 w/ high hopes. From November 12th to the 26th, they were held under 100 pts six times in a nine-game stretch. That's bad. Perhaps most shocking of all is the team's 2-6 SU home record. The Over is 7-1 here, but I suspect better defense is forthcoming. The Jazz have played a ton out on the road lately, so they may still be a bit tired heading into tonight, which will affect their shooting. 10* Under Spurs/Jazz

8* Northeastern (6:45 ET): N'eastern might be down some bodies, but give the Huskies a ton of credit for still competing. They're actually missing three starters from LY's team, not because of graduation mind you, but rather due to injuries. This includes their top two scorers, Vasa Pusica and Shawn Occeus. You'd think that they'd be struggling in light of this rash of injuries, but instead they're off B2B wins, both coming by double digits! They won at Bucknell by 18 on November 28th, then returned home to down Eastern Michigan by 14 on Saturday. The task will obviously be far greater tonight in the Carrier Dome, but Northeastern is getting too many points here.

Syracuse is 5-2 SU. Given "brand recognition," it's not a surprise they drew votes for the latest Top 25 poll, though they didn't quite make it in. I don't think they belong there anyway, even though they did go to Ohio State and record an impressive 72-62 road win last week (part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge). That was followed up w/ a 63-55 win against Cornell over the weekend. But be wary of the Orange in this spot as they have a lookahead to long-time rival Georgetown this weekend. That game has always carried significant meaning throughout the tenure of Jim Boeheim, who is now in his 42nd year at the helm (incredible!). Also, last week's efforts were not exactly indicative of what we saw from this team in the first four games, which included losses to both UConn and Oregon.

Syracuse came nowhere close to covering the 21.5-pt spread against Cornell on Saturday. They are now just 2-4 ATS as favorites. Now, one of Boeheim's sons plays for Cornell (the other plays for him!), so you could argue the coach may have taken it easy. I don't think that's the case, however. The 'Cuse shot 50% overall for the game, yet still couldn't manage to pull away. Normally, this is not a great shooting team. They are just 41.9% overall for the year, including a woeful 29.1% from 3-pt range. Meanwhile, six of Northeastern's top seven scorers can shoot the three and they are 41.1% from behind the arc. Three-point shooting can play a huge role w/ a double digit spread and I think the underdog easily stays within the number here. 8* Northeastern

10* Under Rockets/T'wolves (8:05 ET): Maybe Houston finally has things turned around? Things started getting better w/ the decision to put Carmelo Anthony "on ice." Melo still hasn't been traded, but it's been a clear case of "addition by subtraction," simply by making him inactive. The team rattled off five consecutive victories in mid-November before another swoon set in as they lost four in a row. But back to back blowouts (over San Antonio and Chicago) seem to have things pointed in the right direction as they're at least back to .500. They've also gotten back to scoring plenty of points, something we became accustomed to seeing throughout last season when they were neck & neck w/ Golden State for the top offensive team in the league.

Minnesota had its own "problem child" to start the season, that being Jimmy Butler, but he's been traded (to Philadelphia) and now they too are playing better. They did lose 118-109 to Boston on Saturday, but before that they'd won and covered four straight. Defense was key to their turnaround as they held three of the four opponents under 100 points, something you don't see very often in today's NBA. The loss to Boston snapped a streak of nine consecutive games holding the opponent below 43% shooting. The Celtics shot (44) and made (17) a lot of three-pointers in that game. It also hurt the T'wolves that Boston was 21 of 21 from the free-throw line. James Harden & the Rockets are certainly capable of putting up similar numbers, but I don't think they'll be quite as prolific as the C's were Saturday night. 

This is a play on the total, so let's start looking at that. Houston has gone Over in eight straight games. They've topped 130 pts three times during that stretch, but they shouldn't approach that number given how Minnesota has been defensively of late. The T'wolves have gone Over in B2B games, but prior to that the Under had hit in seven straight games and 12 of the last 13. So something will have to give here. Minnesota also made a ton of FT's (26) in the last game and I don't see that getting repeated here. The Under is 12-4 for them when facing a team that gives up 106 or more PPG this season. It's also 11-5 when the O/U line is 220 points or higher. 10* Under Rockets/T'wolves

10* Over Rutgers/Wisconsin (8:00 ET): Conference play isn't even a week old and already I'm 2-0 in the Big 10. Not only did I have an easy one w/ Ohio State (over Minnesota) yday, but Wisconsin beat Iowa for me on Friday. The Badgers are back in action Monday and I'm now looking at the total. This will be a much easier matchup than the one Friday in Carver-Hawkeye where they ended Iowa's unbeaten run. After trailing in that one by as many as eight in the 2H, they fought back admirably to win 72-66 and are now poised to go on a favorable run here in December w/ a friendly stretch of games. They're already 7-1 SU and have scored at least 72 pts in all but two games, one of those coming against Virginia in Atlantis (only loss). 

If you recall, Rutgers was also kind to me in one of their non-conference games. Quite frankly, it was one of the easiest bets I've ever made in College Basketball, if not any sport. Back on November 19th, they blew out Eastern Michigan 63-36, a game in which they led 31-4 at halftime. That tied an all-time NCAA mark for fewest points ever allowed in a 1st half. Needless to say, the Scarlet Knights won't have a better defensive performance the rest of this season, if ever again! Now they did turn in two additional strong efforts in beating Boston U and Miami FL. But conference play opened w/ a loss to Michigan State where they surrendered 78 points. 

This is a low total. Looking at every game both teams have played this year, only one has had a lower O/U line and that was Wisconsin's game vs. Virginia. The Over is 3-0 so far when the Badgers play here in Madison w/ them averaging 86.7 PPG. As I alluded to in my analysis for the Iowa game, this is a much improved team from LY thanks to Ethan Trice (missed 23 games in 2017-18) back in the fold. He came into that Iowa game leading the country in 3-point shooting at 60%. Rutgers' defensive numbers are still skewed by that outlier performance against Eastern Michigan. I think what we saw vs. Michigan State is more in line from what we'll get from them in Big 10 play. Wisconsin is actually 17th nationally in offensive efficiency right now. This one finds a way to sneak Over. 10* Over Rutgers/Wisconsin

8* Ohio State (7:00 ET): The mood this morning in Columbus may be one of resignation as the fate of Ohio State's football program seems destined NOT for the College Football playoff. But the Buckeyes' basketball program, not bad in its own right, can certainly lift the campus' spirits w/ a big win tonight. Over the last week, you may have heard about the NCAA's much maligned new rating system, NET (replacing RPI), which had Ohio State as the #1 team in the land. That ranking was met w/ almost universal mockery and it certainly didn't help that the Buckeyes lost their first game after the rankings were released. Wednesday, here in Columbus, they went down to Syracuse 72-62 as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. But foolish rankings aside, OSU remains a strong team ready to do damage as Big 10 play gets underway Sunday. I'll lay the points here.

The Buckeyes started the season 6-0 w/ a couple of impressive road wins over Cincinnati and Creighton. Considering Creighton just took #1 Gonzaga to the limit yday (led by double digits) and Cincy's rep, there's no denying those are two quality wins. Against Syracuse, a good team, things kind of fell apart in the second half. The Orange finished the game at 46% from three-point range (11 of 24), a far cry from what previous Buckeyes' opponents had shot from behind the arc. Consider that - for the season - OSU is still allowing only 28.7% shooting from three-point range. So we'll just consider what the 'Cuse did to be an aberration. It was also the just the school's ninth loss in the L42 home games. 

Minnesota also comes in at 6-1 SU on the year. The Golden Gophers lost their Big 10-ACC Challenge game, 68-56 at Boston College, which was their first and only "true" road game thus far. They've also played a game since, vs. Oklahoma State, which they won 83-76. But might that extra game be a "detriment" when it comes to preparing for this Big 10 opener? I think it may. Ohio State has been off since Wednesday while its just a 48-hour turnaround for the Gophers. Minny played OK State at U.S. Bank Stadium (home of the NFL's Vikings) and caught a break w/ their opponent going just 12 of 24 from the FT line. They still allowed the Pokes to shoot 10 of 19 from three-point range, which could be a problem here. In that one "true" road game so far, the Gophers shot a horrific 29.2% from the field. They've played a challenging schedule, but figure to come up short again here. 8* Ohio State

10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Teams at opposite ends of the Eastern Conference spectrum meet tonight in Cleveland. The Raptors lead the East w/ a 19-4 SU record (best in the league) after beating Golden State Thursday night. The Cavs are now 4-17 SU after losing big (128-95) in Boston last night. Things have come full circle here as these teams opened the season against one another w/ Toronto winning 116-104. They just missed out on the cover as 12.5-pt chalk. While things went south in Cleveland in hurry, post-LeBron, I don't think the Cavs deserve to be this large an underdog tonight. Take the points. 

Last week, the Cavs were kind to me, cashing two different times as a premium release. Most impressive of all is that they covered both games wire to wire for the full 96 minutes. One was the heavily-hyped game vs. LeBron and the Lakers. The other was vs. Houston, which was an outright upset as a 10-point dog. Both games were at home. This number is even larger. Granted, that's because the Raptors are a stronger foe, but it's still an overlay. Cleveland has been far more competitive at home this year as opposed to the road where they're just 1-10 SU. The last time they dropped a game by double digits here at the Quicken Loans Arena was November 1st. 

With LeBron on its roster, Cleveland was a long-time nemesis for Toronto, so expect no sympathy from the favorite tonight. Still, the number is just too large. The Raptors have won seven in a row, the win over Golden State arguably being the high point of the season so far. So don't be surprised if the Raptors take the Cavs a little lightly here. After all, they've already beaten them once. That was that game where they were going to take out any remaining angst against the post-LeBron Cavaliers. Being a road favorite of more than 12.5 points is almost unprecedented for Toronto. They're 0-2 ATS in the role all-time. On the flip side, the Cavs are 2-0 ATS as home dogs of 12.5 or more. 10* Cleveland

10* Butler (5:00 ET): We'll probably always associate Butler w/ the back to back runs to the National Title Game under former HC Brad Stevens in 2010-11. But, seven years later, the program remains quite strong. I believe the Bulldogs are worthy of Top 25 consideration right now as they've started 5-1 SU w/ a win over Florida last week. Remember that this is a team that made it to the Round of 32 in LY's NCAA Tournament where it bowed out to second-seeded Purdue by just two points. Today is their first "true" road game of the season and we find them only laying a small number to a St. Louis squad it defeated by 30 points last year. I realize it's now a road game, but Butler should handle its business w/ relative ease Saturday. Lay the points.

Butler had been favored in all of its games before facing Florida (pick 'em). They did drop a disappointing decision to Dayton, 69-64 as seven-point chalk, back on November 21st. But they quickly responded w/ a 31-point win over Middle Tennessee, then came the big win over Florida. All those games took place down in Atlantis. It was an off-shooting night in the loss to Dayton, but a much different story vs. MTSU. Against Florida, it was a dominant 2nd half w/ the Bulldogs shooting 50% from the floor while "tightening the screws" on the Gators, holding them to just 29% overall, including 1 of 12 on three-point attempts. Butler is top 20 in the country in offensive efficiency right now and a solid 41st defensively, per KenPom. 

St. Louis has the same 5-1 SU record as Butler, so it's a little surprising that they're only 1-5 ATS. Then again, they've been double digit favorites in four of the ATS losses and gone 0-4 vs. the number. That tells me that this is not a dominant team, even against lesser competition. The Billikens do hold an upset over Seton Hall, on the road, a rare instance of the visitor drastically outshooting its host from behind the arc. But they followed that up w/ an outright loss to Pitt (as a 4-pt favorite) in yet another hard-fought game that was decided by just two points. Last weekend, they beat Central Arkansas by only 12 points. A St. Louis team that ranks 137th in offensive efficiency is going to have issues scoring today and I just don't see them keeping up w/ their sharpshooting opponent. 10* Butler

8* Marquette (2:30 ET): As we continue to look to "pick off" teams from the dwindling list of remaining unbeatens, Kansas State will be our next target. The 6-0 Wildcats certainly aren't a fraudulent team by any means, but they're certainly overrated at #12 in the polls. Despite that ranking, they check in as slight underdogs on Saturday to an unranked Marquette team. This is the oddsmakers essentially "tipping their hand" and I'll call for the Wildcats to fall for the 1st time this season. This will be their first "true" road game and despite winning the Paradise Jam, it's hardly been a daunting schedule thus far for Bruce Weber's team. Meanwhile, Marquette won't be intimidated here having already faced the likes of Indiana, Kansas & Louisville. Lay the short number here. 

Marquette played two of those three teams tough, even beating Louisville (who just upset Michigan State) in overtime. That came two days after losing to Kansas 77-68 as 8.5-pt dogs. Both those games came at a neutral setting (New York City) as part of the NIT Tipoff. The only game the Golden Eagles played poorly this year was when they traveled to Indiana for their lone "true" road game to date. After "upsetting" L'ville (actually favored), Marquette returned home to play Charleston Southern on Tuesday. They won that game easily, 76-55 as 18.5-pt chalk. It was the fourth time this season the Golden Eagles held an opponent below 60 points. The fact that this team was favored over Louisville I think is pretty instructive as to the caliber of team we're getting here. 

If Marquette does struggle in one area, it's taking care of the basketball. They've turned it over on 20% of their possessions this year and I can see where that would be a problem vs. a team like Kansas State. But, at home, I suspect protecting the basketball will be priority #1. Remember that KSU has not had to play in a hostile environment all year. Marquette is 31-10 SU its last 41 home games and is #26 nationally in offensive efficiency. Aside from the Indiana game, they've played good defense as well. In four home games, they've allowed just 52.5 PPG. No one is going undefeated this season and for Kansas State, they'll taste defeat for the first time Saturday afternoon. 8* Marquette

10* Wisconsin (8:00 ET): There were still 18 teams without a loss in College Basketball entering yday. We targeted one of them, Sacramento State, who happened to be the weakest of the lot. They went down pretty easily (75-58), leaving us w/ 17 teams still w/ a "0" in the loss column. It's very likely that most of these teams are going to suffer that first loss soon, so I'd make a note of who's on "the list." Now the "elite" teams are less likely to lose, but those not defined by that label are easy targets. Such as this Iowa team I'll be playing against tonight. The Hawkeyes were lucky to escape at home vs. Pitt Tuesday, winning by just a single point as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge (which ended in a 7-7 tie). Wisconsin was similarly fortunate to win its game, but as the oddsmakers are clearly letting you know here, they're the better team. 

Not all unbeaten records are created equal and in this case of Iowa, it's been a pretty weak slate of opponents thus far. They did beat Oregon (ranked #13 at the time) in the semis of the 2K Classic on what was a cold-shooting night for the Ducks. The Hawkeyes have yet to play a "true" road game, something that will change next week when they visit East Lansing to play Michigan State. So we're probably going to learn a lot about this Hawkeyes team in the next two games. What we do know is they allowed Pitt to shoot a stunning 61.3% from the floor in the 1H Tuesday. They put the clamps down in the 2H, allowing just 22 pts and rallying back from a seven-point deficit at the break. Tonight will be Iowa's toughest test to date. 

Wisconsin has played three straight top 40 teams, all of whom I'd say are at least at the level - if not better - than the Oregon team that constitutes Iowa's best win. The Badgers have had to face Oklahoma, Virginia and NC State in the last week, losing only to Virginia, who is a top five team. They lost 53-46 to the Hoos and seemed poised to be headed for a second straight defeat on Tuesday, before rallying late to get by previously unbeaten NC State. Like Iowa, the Badgers trailed by seven at the half - at home. But a 50-pt 2H saved them and now they can knock off a second straight unbeaten opponent. This is a double revenge spot for Wisconsin too as they're 0-2 SU/ATS vs. the Hawkeyes the L2 seasons, including an 18-pt loss here in Iowa City LY. But remember that was one of the weakest Badgers' teams in recent memory (missed NCAA Tournament for first time in 19 years) and they're much improved for 2018-19, led by one of the top players in the country, Ethan Happ. I haven't even mentioned yet that due to injuries, Iowa is down to just nine scholarship players! Their unbeaten run ends tonight. 10* Wisconsin

10* Cal Santa Barbara (10:00 ET): Entering play on Thursday, there are still 18 unbeaten teams in College Hoops. Of those 18, Sacramento State is definitely the weakest and also happens to have the fewest number of wins (3). It's only inevitable that the Hornets drop a game and tonight appears to be the night as they visit an old "friend" of mine in UCSB. The Gauchos came through for me, big-time, in their season opener. They walloped a bad Wyoming team 76-66 in Laramie and are now 5-1 SU, 4-1 ATS on the year and enter tonight on a three-game win streak. There is some question over whether or not G Max Heidegger plays here (concussion), but his status has been upgraded and I actually don't think the Gauchos even need him to cover this spread. Lay the points. 

I mentioned earlier that Sacramento State has played only three games. Two of the wins have been by five points or less, one of them coming in OT, and the other was over a NAIA school. So, yes, it's not a stretch to call this the weakest of the remaining unbeaten teams in the country - by a pretty substantial margin. One player (Marcus Graves) is carrying the Hornets right now. He's posted a triple-double (season opener) and made the game-winner in a 58-55 win over UC Davis on November 20th. Saturday vs. Cal State Fullerton, the Hornets did lead by as many as 18 pts in the 2H, but needed OT - plus 22-12-8 from Graves - to get the win. The Hornets were slight underdogs in the last two games and tonight is their 1st "true" roadie of 2018-19.

UCSB beat Sacramento State last year, on the road, 82-72 as an 8.5-pt favorite. A year later, the spread is roughly the same, even a little lower, at home. So I see value on a side that has won four straight while covering the three lined contests. Saturday against Idaho, UCSB didn't even shoot that well (36.7%), yet still won comfortably due to another outstanding effort on the defensive end. Thus far, the Gauchos have held their opponents to a ridiculous 35.6% from the floor, including just 22% from three-point range. They've played only two home games and won them by a combined 75 points. In addition to playing on this team at Wyoming, I also won w/ them in the last home game (vs. Montana State). They've been able to win w/o Heidegger before and would be able to do so again tonight. Sacramento State is way overvalued due to the "0" in the loss column. 10* Cal Santa Barbara

8* North Carolina (9:30 ET): Whenever I see these two teams matched up, I automatically think of the famous 1993 Title Game where Chris Webber called that infamous timeout he didn't have, costing Michigan a National Championship. That loss is one of four Title Game losses for the Wolverines in the last 26 years, the most recent coming last March to Villanova. But the Maize and Blue seem pretty determined to finally cut down the nets this year, starting 6-0 SU and they've already exacted revenge over 'Nova in a stunning 73-46 beatdown that took place IN PHILLY. But this game vs. North Carolina, part of the Big 10-ACC Challenge, is Michigan's toughest to date. At the start of the season, I don't think many would have expected the Wolverines to be favored in this spot, even in Ann Arbor. UNC is still the better team IMO and I'll gladly take the points. 

The ACC has typically owned this annual event with their Big 10 counterparts. Last year, they won 11 of the 14 games. So far this year, things have been a lot more even at four wins apiece. But all four wins by the Big 10 have been by four points or less, three of them by two pts or less, which is really incredible when you think about it. Overall, this has been a very tightly contested event as the ACC pulled out a couple close ones itself last night w/ Notre Dame beating Illinois 76-74 and Louisville upsetting #9 Michigan State in overtime. Of course, the majority of these results don't have a huge bearing on our play tonight, but I do think they're instructive as to how valuable taking points w/ the ACC side is. Especially when it's North Carolina, who is rarely an underdog and still #2 overall in my own personal power ratings (behind only Duke). 

The Tar Heels did drop a game last week, losing to Texas 92-89 as nine-point chalk. Sadly, I had the Heels in that one as the allowed the Longhorns to shoot the lights out in Vegas. Coby White did have 33 points for UNC, the most by any freshman since Harrison Barnes went for 40 back in 2011. The team did bounce back in the consolation game vs. UCLA, winning 94-78. The Heels have now scored at least 89 points in six straight games. This should be a fascinating battle between the #4 offensive team in the country (UNC) against the top defensive team (Michigan). But at the end of the day, North Carolina is way underrated at #11 in the Top 25. They are the better team here. 8* North Carolina

10* New York (7:05 ET): The Knicks played last night and lost 115-108 to the Pistons. But they did cover (were +7.5), which makes it 5 straight ATS wins for this moribund franchise. They'd actually pulled three consecutive upsets prior to last night, beating Boston, New Orleans and Memphis. So even though this is the second night of a back to back (and third road game in four nights), there's no reason NY can't compete here against a Philly side that has consistently been overvalued in the early going this season. The Sixers have failed to cover each of their last four games, including an outright loss here at home to Cleveland last week as 13-pt favorites. I'm taking the points. 

After suffering that embarrassing loss to Cleveland last week, the Sixers were able to bounce back w/ a win in Brooklyn on Sunday. But the win came by only two points as they trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter. In fact, they needed 38 4Q points to overcome the deficit they were facing (trailed by as many as 20 pts) as the Nets shot an incredible 57 percent from the floor in that game, including 46% from three-point range. I don't expect the Knicks to shoot that well tonight, but they shouldn't have to in order to gain the cover. The Sixers have failed to cover three of the last four times they've been a DD favorite. They're also 1-8 ATS this season after scoring 115+ points in the previous game.

I know that the Sixers are 10-1 SU at home (just 4-7 SU on the road) and itching to play after losing their last time here to Cleveland. But falling into that 20-pt hole against Brooklyn shows me this team still has much to work on. Defensively, they've really begun to slip, giving up an average of 119.8 points the L5 games. They're actually averaging the same number of PPG that they allow for the season. So, because they're at home and the Knicks played last night, the Sixers look to be really overvalued in this spot. I know NY fell behind pretty big itself last night. But a variety of players are actually contributing now and that helps alleviate playing w/o rest. The Knicks are 9-6 ATS when taking points this year. 10* New York

10* Richmond (7:00 ET): Georgetown looks to be way overvalued in this spot, which seems odd given that they've failed to cover the number in five of their first six games. Now they've won five of the six games straight up, but only one by double digits and that was the first game vs. MD-Eastern Shore (68-53) where they were 30.5-pt favorites. After a Jamaican trip that saw them lose to Loyola Marymount and then barely squeak by USF (needed OT), the Hoyas returned home over the weekend and again played a close game, this time beating Campbell by only eight points. They did lead by as many as 22, but that advantage had shrunk to as few as 4 pts in the final minute. 

Richmond is having a bit of a disappointing start to the season. The Spiders are 2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS and enter Wednesday on a three-game losing streak. Two of the losses were blowouts. Down in Ft. Myers, they lost by 16 to Loyola Chicago, then followed that up by blowing a late lead against Wyoming. A return home over the weekend seemed like it would get this team back on track, but instead they lost outright to Hampton, 86-66, as 11-point favorites. That huge misfire has obviously influenced tonight's spread pretty severely and I think we're getting a ton of value (at least several points) w/ the dog here. 

Richmond led Wyoming by as many as 11 in the second half before blowing the game and losing by two. I suspect the disappointment of that result contributed to what we saw Sunday against Hampton as the Spiders fell behind 18-4 and never led. Richmond has been favored in five of their six games, so the fact that they're 2-4 SU has to be viewed as a massive disappointment. But here's where they can at least gain some confidence by standing toe to toe w/ a "better-known" school. Richmond has revenge for a 6-pt home loss to G'town last year where the Hoyas shot the lights out (53.2% for the game). Even though the rematch is in D.C., I don't envision the Hoyas shooting that well again. The Spiders did lose third leading scorer Nick Sherod in the last game, but the team is almost guaranteed to improve its three-point shooting (went 3 of 21 vs. Hampton) even w/o him. Take the points. 10* Richmond

8* Over Lakers/Nuggets (9:05 ET): It didn't take long for this O/U line to start moving. For good reason too; I expect this to be a high-scoring game. Now both teams have gone Under in each of their last four games respectively. For the Lakers, the Under is 10-2 the last 12 games. But when you look at the O/U line from the last time these teams played, you can gain a real "appreciation" for how much the oddsmakers have overadjusted here. That previous O/U line either closed at 234.5/235 depending on your book. If you bet the total, the closing number definitely mattered as the final score was 121-114, in favor of the the Lakers. But for the purposes of tonight's total, all you need to know is that final score would make for an easy winner on the Over. That's the way I go here. 

The Lakers have won 9 of 12 games since Halloween, but lost their last time out, 108-104 to Orlando. That was a Sunday afternoon home game and LA's second loss to the Magic in just over a week's time. The Lakers did not shoot poorly per se against the Magic on Sunday, but did finish well below their season average of 114.2 PPG. Defensively, they'd held their previous three opponents all to 40% or worse from the field, before allowing Orlando to shoot 45%. They re allowing 112.7 PPG on the year. Without PG Rajon Rondo (out indefinitely), the Lakers have turned the ball over a total of 41 times in the L2 games. They had no problems shooting against Denver the last time they met, sinking exactly 50% of their shots in the 7-point win.

Denver also shot exactly 50% from the floor in that last meeting. In fact, they took (92) and made (46) the exact same numbers as the Lakers! The difference was that the Nuggets only made 6 of 23 three-point attempts (26.1%) while LA was a more respectable 10 of 29. Denver averages 10 makes per game from behind the arc and you can also expect them to shoot better overall at home where they average 113.8 PPG on 48.1% shooting. What I'm not sold on here is them repeating the kind of defensive efforts we've seen in the last two games where they allowed 87 and 98 pts in wins over the Magic and Thunder. Denver is 50-28 Over the L78 times it has faced a team averaging at least 106 PPG (Lakers average 114.2). The Lakers are 3-1 Over as underdogs this season. 8* Over Lakers/Nuggets

10* Nevada (9:00 ET): This is a colossal revenge game for the 5th ranked team in the country. As soon I saw this matchup for Tuesday, I instantly went back to last March when these teams met in the Sweet 16. Nevada, the 7-seed, led by as many as 12 early, but could not hold the lead and eventually found itself down double digits in the 2H. The final score was 69-68 as Loyola-Chicago would go on to make an improbable Final Four run. It's been awhile, so I can only assume my analysis of that game is long since forgotten. I'll briefly rehash here by reminding you I was on Loyola (+1.5) as Nevada's poor defensive efficiency stuck out like a "sore thumb" last year. But the Wolf Pack are much improved in that area this year, not to mention #1 in the country in offensive efficiency (per KenPom). Playing for major revenge, I'll lay the points w/ Nevada in this rematch. 

For some, it will probably take some getting used to seeing Nevada so high in the national rankings. I'm here to say "get used to it." As it stands now, I have the Wolf Pack set to win more games this year than any other team in the country besides Gonzaga. (BTW, shame on the Pac 12 for not even having a team in the discussion for superiority out West). As I said earlier, this is the top offensive team in the country right now as they average 92.0 PPG and have won all six games by double digits. They just dropped 110 pts on UMass in the Final of the Las Vegas Holiday Invitational on Friday, shooting an incredible 67.4% from two-point range while also making 11 of 22 three-pointers. This team is as deep as any in the country right now. 

But the big difference between this Nevada team and last year is the defensive end of the floor. This year, they are allowing just under 70 PPG and rank a respectable 48th in defensive efficiency and are holding opponents to just 22.8% shooting from three-point range, which is key. Back in March, they allowed Loyola to shoot 55% for the game. That won't be happening again. The Ramblers aren't as strong a team this year as they lost three starters from the Final Four squad and have not played the most challenging of schedules either. Not only did they just lose to Boston College in Fort Myers, earlier in the year they dropped a home game to Furman. Nevada will - easily - be their toughest opponent to date. While the Wolf Pack don't force a lot of turnovers defensively, that issue is mitigated by them not turning it over much themselves and defending the 3-pt line well. 10* Nevada

8* Virginia Tech (7:00 ET): Last night, I won w/ a road team (Nebraska) that I thought should be favored in this Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. Tonight, the road team I like is favored, only it's not by nearly enough. I'm also pivoting to the ACC school here as Va Tech comes in unbeaten and ranked #13 in the country. I suspect that many are suspicious of the Hokies, given we're not used to seeing them among the "blue bloods" of the sport. But Buzz Williams' team is most definitely "for real" as they've covered all five games so far and rank 7th nationally in offensive efficiency. I'll gladly lay the short number on the road here. 

Penn State has already dropped a couple of games, admittedly both of them very close decisions. They lost by two @ DePaul and by three to Bradley on a neutral court. Still, those results don't exactly bode well when getting set to face the #13 team in the country. Against Bradley, junior Lamar Stevens led the way w/ 27 points, his 5th consecutive 20+ pt effort. However, he got little help from his teammates, who combined to score just 29 points on 10 of 39 shooting. The depth issue in Happy Valley will soon be alleviated when Mike Watkins returns to the team. Watkins has yet to play this season due to an ongoing mental health issue. HC Patrick Chambers has said Watkins might play tonight, but he won't be enough to turn the tide in this Big 10 vs. ACC matchup. 

Va Tech has already beaten one Big 10 team this year, that being #19 Purdue, on their way to winning the Cancun Classic two weekends ago. They've since clobbered St. Francis (PA) 75-37. But even though they won by 38, that was actually only an 11-point game at halftime. But the Hokies were completely dominant over the final 20 minutes, holding the Red Flash to just 15 points. Tonight marks the Hokies' first "true" road game of the season, but I think they'll be up to the task. This team is legit as I've got them right around the same national ranking the pollsters do in my own personal power ratings. Penn State simply lacks the offensive firepower necessary to keep pace here. 8* Virginia Tech

10* Over Magic/Warriors (10:35 ET): Golden State seems to have righted the ship, although a one-point win over Sacramento on Saturday was hardly inspiring. The Dubs have now covered only one of their last eight games as they continue to try to overcome the absences of both Steph Curry and Draymond Green. Tonight they face an Orlando team that is much improved this year, evident by the fact the Magic come in on a 5-1 ATS hot streak (4-2 straight up). As has been the case w/ most recent Warriors' lines, this one looks short, but you obviously have to factor in the Curry and Green injuries. I also happen to think the O/U line here is too low and that's where the value is in on Monday night's matchup. Take the Over. 

Orlando played yesterday and pulled out an upset in LA, beating the Lakers 108-104 as 7.5-pt underdogs. The Magic had two 30+ point quarters in the win, though they by no means shot the ball particularly well. We do have to be cognizant here of the fact that Orlando only shoots 43.5% from the floor on the road. But the Over is 3-1 this season when the team is playing the second night of a back to back. Defensively, I expect them to struggle tonight. Golden State is still #2 in the league in offensive efficiency w/ both Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson both guaranteed to play. There's also a chance Green could return (listed as "day to day"). 

Even with Curry and Green missing time, the Warriors are still shooting nearly 50% for the season and average 116 PPG. Durant has caught fire in the last two games, scoring 76 pts on 55% overall shooting. Thompson went for 62 points, making nine three-pointers total. Both, particularly Durant, had really struggled from three-point range during the first and only four-game losing streak of the Steve Kerr era. Something not really talked about is the Warriors have regressed defensively this year. Hidden in the midst of all the scoring the last several years is the fact they usually rank near the top of the league in defensive efficiency. This year, they've slipped to 15th, one spot ahead of Orlando. 10* Over Magic/Warriors

8* Cleveland (7:05 ET): The Cavs have been kind to me twice in the past week, covering the entire 96 minutes against a pair of supposed heavyweights, Los Angeles and Houston. They lost the Lakers game, LeBron's much hyped return to Cleveland, but easily covered a drastically inflated number (+9) in a 109-105 final. I also had them Saturday night in a huge upset of Houston (were 10-pt dogs) here at home. In between, they pulled another upset, perhaps one of the biggest you'll see this entire NBA season. They entered Philly on Friday as 13-point dogs and one of the three teams in the league w/o a road win. The Sixers were undefeated at home. All the Cavs did was pull a 121-112 upset where they led by as many 15 in the 4th quarter. This is an undervalued team right now! 

Ironically, Minnesota was one of the other two teams w/o a road win heading into Friday night. All three teams (these two + Phoenix) got the job done that night, however. Minnesota won in Brooklyn, 112-102, but that's a team missing its leading scorer. The T'wolves then won again Saturday, 111-96 over lowly Chicago. But that was at home. I get that the Cavs have experienced their fair share of issues, but laying this many points w/ a Minnesota team that has just one road win seems like a classic case of putting the "cart before the horse." The T'wolves have just two wins this year by more than 10 points. When these teams met in the Twin Cities earlier this year, the Cavs were only 8.5-pt dogs and covered (ever so slightly) in a 131-123 loss. So you can see the value here. 

Now Cleveland have Kevin Love (former T'wolf!) for that first meeting. He led the team w/ 25 points. But Minnesota also still had Jimmy Butler (since traded to Philadelphia), who led his squad w/ 33 points. That was the second game of the year for both teams. The Cavs now lean on rookie Collin Sexton, who just scored a career-high 29 points Saturday vs. Houston. Minnesota is 5-2 SU since dealing Butler, including a 4-1 SU/ATS mark as a favorite. But they've never been asked to lay more than 2.5 pts on the road this year and Cleveland isn't substantially worse than most prior T'wolves' opponents. 8* Cleveland

8* Nebraska (7:00 ET): This is the first game of the annual "Big 10-ACC Challenge" and these schools met in LY's event as well. The 2017 meeting also took place here in Death Valley w/ Clemson holding serve 60-58, though they did not come close to covering the 10.5-point spot. This year, the Cornhuskers are a much stronger team, one more than capable of pulling the upset here. In fact, my numbers say they should be favored here and are also a top 20 team in the country. Nebraska will be a player in the Big 10 this year, mark my words, and they'll help the conference here w/ a win in an event usually owned by the ACC. Take the points.

This will be Nebraska's first "true" road game. They do have a loss already, to Texas Tech in the Hall of Fame Classic at Kansas City. But the Red Raiders are really good right now and ranked #3 in the country (per KenPom) in defensive efficiency. I'm really not sure how the Red Raiders aren't in the Top 25 (should be after Monday). Clemson is (#16 as of this writing), but off a loss to another Nebraska school, that being Creighton. It was an 87-82 loss on Wednesday. The Tigers haven't played since. Meanwhile, Nebraska did get a chance to bounce back from its lone loss. In Lincoln, they clobbered Western Carolina over the weekend (Saturday), 73-49. 

In a two-point loss LY on this court, Nebraska missed 14 of 18 three-point attempts. That was essentially the difference in a game where neither side shot well overall. Clemson also had a massive edge in free throws (+15 in attempts, +13 in makes). Not so sure the Tigers can count on those same advantages being present this time around. Nebraska is averaging 80.5 PPG so far this season, but it's real strength is its defense, which ranks 4th nationally in scoring (51.7 PPG allowed). I realize that Clemson lost only one game on its home court this season, but it is 0-3 ATS here in Death Valley so far this season. Being left out of the NCAA Tournament (despite 22 wins) last year has this Cornhuskers team highly motivated coming into 2018-19. I'm higher on this team than most and look for them to justify my faith Monday night. 8* Nebraska

10* Wofford (7:00 ET): For already the third time this season, Wofford gets a crack at a Power 5 school. They're 0-2 so far, but have taken on North Carolina and Oklahome. They actually got the Tar Heels at home (season opener!), but that's obviously one of the top teams in the country. Still, the Terriers only lost by 11. They lost by that same margin down in Norman, Oklahoma. South Carolina certainly isn't on the level of a UNC and I don't even have them at OU's level. Therefore, this number looks inflated. Wofford has topped 90 points in three games vs. lesser competition while South Carolina is 1-4 ATS w/ two SU losses. Take the points.

Wofford got to host the Gamecocks LY and came up well short, 73-52 as 6.5-pt dogs. They shot poorly (34.7% overall!) while South Carolina went 11 of 23 from behind the arc. To call this a huge week in the history of the Wofford basketball program would be putting it mildly. After this game, they'll host East Tenn State in the SoCon opener (East Tenn St won Conf Tourney last season). Then it's a date w/ current #1 Kansas. But don't think for a second that Wofford is going to overlook South Carolina, an in-state opponent, as this represents a golden opportunity to knock off a P5 school. 

The Gamecocks did not play at all the week of Thanksgiving. Last time we saw them, they turned in easily their best performance to date, a 90-55 whitewashing of George Washington. The Gamecocks were 11.5-pt favorites, so it was a game they were expected to win comfortably. But I think that final margin of victory has had some unnecessary influence on this line. You do have to tip your cap to the way South Carolina defended against GW. They limited the Colonials to 28% shooting overall, including 4 of 27 in the 1H. They went into halftime w/ an incredible 56-18 lead. Things won't come that easy again the rest of this season and certainly not tonight against a mid-major that shoots the ball very well. South Carolina is just 5-15 ATS when playing w/ 7 or more days of rest. 10* Wofford

10* Over Suns/Pistons (4:05 ET): I've had quite a bit of success playing the Over in Suns games this week. I'm 2-0 w/ winners on Monday (in Philly) and Wednesday (in Chicago). Monday's game in Philly saw them lose 119-114 (total was 219.5) and Wednesday in Chicago was another loss (124-116) where the game flew past the O/U line (217.5). I did not play the game Friday as the team picked up a shocking 116-114 win in Milwaukee, as 13.5-pt underdogs. That game did not go Over either, just falling short of the 232.5 pt total. But it certainly still featured plenty of scoring. Phoenix will wrap up its four-game road trip against the Eastern Conference Sunday afternoon in Detroit and the O/U line is back where I like it. Take the Over on this one. 

The Pistons are coming off a home and home w/ the Rockets where the team playing host won both games. Detroit covered the game in Houston, losing by only two, then pulled an upset on Friday. The game in the Motor City went into overtime, which I'm still a little "sore" about as that cost me what would have been an easy winner on the Under. The game was tied 98-98 at the end of regulation (total closed 216.5), but the teams combined to score 31 points in the extra five minutes. For the Pistons, that upset was right in line w/ other recent performances as the team is now 5-2 SU over its L7 games. They're 6-1 ATS in that same stretch, covering four straight. 

When making the case for the Over in Phoenix games earlier this week, I noted the Suns were dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. They've since moved up a spot, to 29th, passing Cleveland. But they are still obviously very bad at that end of the floor. They've allowed an average of 119 PPG on the current road trip. Detroit has little trouble scoring anyway (111.2 PPG), so they should put up a lot of points tonight. At the same time, they're not so great defensively either, giving up an average of over 110 PPG. The Suns came into this season on a 27-8 Over run when scoring 115+ points their previous games. All three games on this road trip have seen at least 230 points scored while Detroit games are averaging 222.3 PPG. 10* Over Suns/Pistons

10* Cleveland (7:35 ET): Interestingly enough, there were three NBA teams that hadn't won a single road game going into yday. All three (Minnesota, Cleveland, Phoenix) won on the road Friday! It's a debate as to which was the bigger shocker: Phoenix winning at Milwaukee, or Cleveland winning in Philly. The Cavs were facing a Sixers team that was unbeaten at home and looked like the hungrier team, jumping out to a 22-8 lead early in the game and shooting 52.7% overall, including 11 of 22 from three-point range. Perhaps you could make the case Philly was still a little "full" from Thanksgiving, but tip your cap to Cleveland for what was their most impressive peformance of the season to date.

Houston also played last night, but they lost in Detroit, 116-111 in OT. The fact that the game went to overtime is a bit of a "sore subject" for me as it allowed the game to go Over the total and I had Under (was 98-98 at the end of regulation). For the Rockets, the loss snapped a five-game win streak. Four of the wins had come at home, however, including one over those same Pistons (by 2) on Wednesday. With Carmelo Anthony persona non grata, the Rockets have been playing a lot better of late, but they're being asked to lay a big number on the road here and they've actually still been outscored this season. You also have to factor in the back to back. 

While Cleveland is definitely not a playoff team, I've been impressed w/ how they've looked the L2 games. I had them here at home against the Lakers Weds night. That was LeBron's much hyped return and the Cavs easily covered that one. The fact that this team has led the Lakers and Sixers for almost all of the 96 minutes (they did wilt late vs. LA) has to be taken into consideration. So does the number, which is huge. As bad as Cleveland has looked at times this year, they've only been a double-digit dog three times and all were on the road. I think we have to be a little careful in pronouncing "Houston's back" after all the trouble they had at the start of the season. 10* Cleveland

8* William & Mary (4:00 ET): W&M comes into this game on a four-game losing streak, including a home defeat at the hands of Radford Tuesday. That last loss sounds worse than it really is as not only Radford is going to be a player in the Big South this year (top team), but W&M was incredibly short-handed for the contest, down three starters. Still, oddsmakers had the game listed as pick 'em even though the Tribe were starting three freshman. Now it isn't good that W&M allowed Radford to shoot 58% for the contest or that they rank outside the top 300 (per KenPom) in defensive efficiency. But, the Tribe can score as is evident by placing in the Top 60 (per KenPom) on the offensive end. Last year's team averaged 85.0 PPG, which was 4th best in the country. 

St. Joe's is coming off a loss in the third place game of the Myrtle Beach Invitational last weekend. After clobbering Wake Forest in the first game (won by 20 pts), the Hawks went down in the next two, losing to UCF and WVU. The West Virginia loss is certainly excusable, but losing by to 20 UCF wasn't the best of looks. Also, there has to be a concern over the Hawks lack of defense in those two games as they face a William & Mary team that will definitely want to pick up the pace. Not only did St. Joe's give up 97 points to West Virginia, but they also let UCF shoot 55% from the field. 

William & Mary's health is obviously important to this game, but it looks as if at least two of the three starters that missed the Radford game will return here. This is a young team, but the freshman getting so much playing time against Radford will be beneficial for the future. The loss to Radford snapped a 23-game home non-conference win streak for the Tribe. This is an explosive team that should thrive in the underdog role Saturday afternoon. They were also short-handed against Notre Dame last week and still managed to cover that game. Besides Radford, the Tribe's other three losses all came in "true" road games and one (to UIC) was by just five points. Don't be surprised at an upset here. 8* William & Mary

8* Under Jazz/Lakers (10:35 ET): What in the world has gone wrong w/ Utah? This is a troubled team right now. Wednesday night saw them lose outright at home (as 9.5-pt favorites) to Sacramento. That loss comes on the heels of a 2-3 SU road trip where they twice got their doors blown off, once by 27 at Indiana and the other time by 50 (!) at Dallas. In no way does this currently resemble the squad many thought would emerge as the #2 team in the Western Conference (behind Golden State) this year. Currently, they're 8-10 SU and giving up over 109 PPG on the season. On offense, they've averaged just 95.4 points over the last five games.

The Lakers are off somewhat of an emotional win as LeBron returned to Cleveland and led his new team to a 109-105 victory. They didn't cover, which made me happy as I was on the Cavs. In fact, Cleveland (a 9.5-pt dog) led outright most of the way, not conceding the lead until there was just over a minute left in the game. The Lakers haven't been a great team to bet on (just 6-11 ATS), which isn't surprising as you had to figure they've be overvalued due to the expectations of James coming on boad. I thought the expectation that the Lakers would be an automatic playoff team in the loaded West was a bit premature. But this team is playing pretty well right now, having won six of its last seven.

These teams are tied in defensive efficiency, ranking 19th. That's not all that impressive, but I look for this to be a bit of a low-scoring game. Eight of the Lakers last 10 games have stayed Under the total. Oddsmakers are still scrambling some after the scoring "explosion" we saw league-wide early in the season. So we're still able to get some O/U lines higher than they ought to be. This is one of them. The Lakers' defense has actually been much better of late, plus Utah has failed to score even 100 pts in four of its last six games. Utah was a top defensive team LY and I suspect we'll start to see their numbers at that end of the floor start to improve as well. 8* Under Jazz/Lakers

8* Cal Poly (10:00 ET): Portland is the host team in this tourney and won its first game, 73-56 over USC Upstate. It was their third win in a row and fourth of the season. But most of the wins haven't been all that impressive. Two were against non-board teams and they allowed over 100 pts in the season opener vs. Multnomah Bible College, a NAIA school that went 22 of 50 from three-point range. There was another close call at Cal State Northridge, whom the Pilots downed 80-77, but only after trailing by as many as 18 pts. So what I'm saying is that I really don't trust this team laying this many points, even if they are the tourney hosts. 

Cal Poly is a conference rival of Cal State Northridge. So maybe they had a chance to dial up the Matadors' coaching staff for a scouting report. Even if they didn't, look for the Mustangs to keep up in this game. They've lost three in a row, so motivation should be high here. Two of those three losses were to Pac 12 schools, Arizona and Wazzu, so no shame there. The most recent one came here in Portland in an ugly 54-42 game w/ Texas State. The Mustangs actually led the game at the half, 23-16, but went scoreless for nine minutes in the 2H and that was the difference in the game.

Cal Poly has not been a good ATS team the last three seasons, going just 18-39 vs. the number overall. That includes a hideous 1-14 mark after scoring 60 pts or less the previous game. But I'll call for them to buck the trend here. The issues against Texas State were a) getting dominated on the boards and b) shooting only 3 of 16 from three-point range. Both of those issues are easily correctable facing Portland. First off, the Pilots aren't a great rebounding team. Two, we already talked about their issues defending the three-point line. Take the points here. 8* Cal Poly

10* Under Rockets/Pistons (7:05 ET): These teams just played Wednesday in Houston. The Rockets won 126-124, shooting 55.6 percent from the field. Though it ended up being a two-point game, Houston actually led by much more w/ just five minutes to go. The lead was 14 pts to be exact. The key to Detroit's ultimately failed comeback was top Rockets' defender P.J. Tucker getting ejected (two techs). With Tucker gone from the game, Blake Griffin went off, making five three-pointers. Overall, the Pistons scored 41 pts in the 4th quarter. I don't see that happening again nor do I see Houston shooting as well on the road. Tucker should play the full game this time and thus I see this second game of a home & home staying Under. 

To the shock of no one, Houston has improved dramatically since ridding itself of Carmelo Anthony. Melo is still on the roster, but not playing and things have taken a positive turn since that decision was made. Wednesday was the Rockets' fifth win in a row and eighth in the L10 games. After shockingly getting held under 100 pts six times in the first 11 games, the team has averaged 117.8 points over its last five games. That number coming on better than 50% shooting. While an offensive uptick was to expected, especially w/o Anthony, I don't think the Rockets will be able to sustain the production of the L5 games. They also only average 103.4 PPG on the road. 

Detroit should bounce back defensively in this one as the Under is 21-8 for them the L3 seasons if they allowed 115+ points the L3 games. This is a top 10 team in the league in defensive efficiency right now. As far as Houston's overall shooting percentage for the year, it's just 43.9%. The Pistons aren't exactly a great shooting team either at 43.3% for the year. Over the L3 seasons, the team is also 20-9 Under after scoring 115+ points. The teams combined to make 29 of 72 three-point attempts on Wednesday, which is a high percentage. Not surprisingly, the O/U line has been set a few points higher for tonight. That leads to some value and like I said, I'm on the Under. 10* Under Rockets/Pistons 

10* North Carolina (7:30 ET): This game is part of the Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational in Vegas and the Tar Heels are forced to make the trip w/o starting PG Seventh Woods as he sustained a concussion in practice on Tuesday. But it's important to note that HC Roy Williams has five players averaging double figures so far and Woods isn't one of them. Yes, he's an important piece, but he only averages 2.8 PPG, which is 11th best on the team. As per usual, this is a deep team coming from Chapel Hill and they've already topped 100 pts three times, albeit against much lesser competition. You'd think a team like UNC might be overvalued heading into its first real test of the season, but the opposite actually holds true here due to the Woods' injury. Lay the points.

Texas, like North Carolina, comes to Las Vegas unbeaten. The Longhorns are 4-0, having already survived an overtime test from Arkansas earlier in the year. Shaka Smart's team is not nationally ranked and my own power rankings confirm they shouldn't be as I've got them just on the outskirts of the top 40. I've already played against them one time already, that being a horrible spot vs. LA Monroe, which was the game after they beat Arkansas in OT. The 'Horns never came close to covering the 19-point spot there, winning only 65-55. They've since recorded their first ATS win of the season as they destroyed The Citadel 97-69 last Friday. The long layoff coming into this Tournament doesn't look like a good thing for Texas, however. They're 0-6 ATS the L6 times playing w/ five or six days rest.

Strangely, Texas has had UNC's number through the years. Roy Williams is just 1-6 SU/ATS vs. the Longhorns as the coach of the Tar Heels, but that record should change for the better after tonight. Were Woods healthy, I would guess this line would be double digits. Missing your starting PG is a big deal, but I think the oddsmakers have overadjusted. While Texas is 1-3 ATS, UNC is 3-1-1 ATS despite being favored by double digits in every game. Their only ATS loss came last time out in a 101-76 win over St. Francis (PA) where they were 27-pt chalk. I've got the Tar Heels ranked right behind rival Duke as the #2 team in the country. Too much scoring for Texas to keep up, in my opinion.  10* North Carolina 

8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): For the second time in less than a decade, LeBron James has left Cleveland's hoops scene a barren wasteland as the Cavaliers come into this much-hyped showdown w/ the worst record in the league at 2-13 straight up. However, unlike when he bolted for Miami in 2010, don't expect James to be winning NBA titles anytime soon w/ this current Lakers squad. While there are certainly signs of progress in LA (they've won 5 of their last 6 games), they remain a money-draining 6-10 ATS on the year and this is a big number that they're laying out on the road. Right now, I do NOT project the Lakers to be a playoff team in the Western Conference. 

The Cavs should definitely be ready for this game. Not only is it a much-hyped game with the franchise's best ever player returning, but they haven't really played much over the last week. In the last six days, Cleveland has had to play only once. That was Monday and while they lost to Detroit, 113-102, they very nearly rallied to "steal" the cover (were +9.5) in the end. One can only assume that the team's full focus has been on this game for awhile now. They've been playing short-handed, but I also expect LeBron to "take it easy" on his former mates. 

For the 13th time in his career, James scored 50+ points on Sunday, finishing w/ 51 in a 113-97 rout of his "other" former team, Miami. While Cleveland hasn't played much recently, the Lakers have. This will be LA's third road game in five nights, all out East. They were upset in Orlando over the weekend, giving up 130 points. Sunday's win over Miami aside, the Lakers are generally not blowing teams out this season as they have four wins by four points or less and just three by double digits. This number is inflated because of the hype surrounding James and the perception of Cleveland. The Lakers will most likely win here, but not by as much as the oddsmakers are expecting. 8* Cleveland

10* Over Suns/Bulls (8:05 ET): We have two very bad teams playing here, the night before Thanksgiving, so I look for defense to be optional in this one. Offensively, the Bulls (30th) and Suns (28th) might both rank in the bottom three in the league in efficiency. But they also both rank near the bottom in defensive efficiency w/ the Suns coming in dead last in that department. Certainly, Chicago is going to do better offensively in this game than they did Saturday vs. Toronto when they scored only 83 points on 34.9% shooting. Both numbers were season-lows. If you recall, my last NBA O/U play was an Over on Phoenix (at Philadelphia) and that game saw 233 total pts scored. More of the same tonight. Play on the Over. 

That Over play w/ Phoenix was their last game. It was also the fifth time in the last six games they allowed 110 or more points. Philly had 62 pts after halftime. The Suns are one of three teams in the league yet to win a road game (Cleveland and Minnesota are the others) and I don't think that there's any denying that this is the worst team in the entire Western Conference. Their record is just 3-13 overall and in their seven road losses they've given up an average of 118.9 points per game. Chicago might be coming off its worst offensive game of the season, but this could end up being one of the best. 

The Bulls have not shot the ball well of late. Their field goal percentages in the last four games are: 39.3%, 39.3%, 43.6% and 34.9%. Incredibly, they've scored more than 100 points only once in the last six games. But tonight could be a breakout performance of sorts. They just got done with a stretch of facing the three top teams in East - Milwaukee, Boston and Toronto - all in a row. Those three are all top five in the league in defensive efficiency. They go from that to facing the league's worst defensive team. Key here is that leading scorer Zach LaVine (25.3 PPG) is set to return to the lineup after missing the Toronto game w/ an illness. LaVine's absence at least partially explains the offensive ineptitude in that game. The Bulls are 7-3 Over the L3 seasons after scoring 85 pts or less the previous game. 10* Over Suns/Bulls

10* Richmond (5:00 ET): Wyoming is a team that I've already targeted multiple times this season and I've been successful on every occasion. The first was the season opener vs. UC-Santa Barbara when they lost by 10 as six-point favorites. That may end up as one of the worst lines set by the oddsmakers all year. The next time I faded the Cowboys was last Friday, again at home, facing Niagara. The Pokes lost outright yet again, this time falling 72-67 as 7.5-pt chalk. They're now 0-5 ATS on the season after losing 88-76 to Boston College on Monday, a game they were NOT "supposed" to win as they came in as eight-point underdogs. 

This game takes place in Ft. Myers, Florida and will be the second game for both Richmond and Wyoming here. I already mentioned that Wyoming lost to BC on Monday, well, that same night saw Richmond fall to Loyola-Chicago by 16 points. We all remember the Ramblers making it to the Final Four last Spring, but that was still a disappointing setback for Richmond as they were just seven-point underdogs in the contest. The Spiders come into today's game at 2-2 SU overall, having also lost to Longwood in the season opener. But they've shot well since that defeat, making almost 55% of their field goal attempts the L3 games! The problem against Loyola was the defense as they permitted the Ramblers to shoot a ridiculous 61% from the field. 

Wyoming won't be shooting that well Wednesday as their field goal percentage for the year is just 40.2. The Cowboys were picked to finish 7th in the 11-team Mt West before the season and look to be worse than projected as they are already short-handed (two players injured) in addition to losing four of the top five scorers from last year's team. The Pokes are also incredibly deficient on the defensive end, which is bad news against a Richmond squad that is shooting the ball very well right now. Look for the Spiders to run away with this one as Wyoming looks even worse on the defensive end than they were a season ago. 10* Richmond

8* WI-Green Bay (10:00 ET): It's been an impressive run so far out on the West Coast for Green Bay w/ them upsetting Eastern Washington and then taking care of Morehead State. Tonight, the task is far tougher as they head down to Oregon, but I think the Phoenix will be up for it. They're getting a lot of points here against a team in prime letdown mode following a big win. This is the end of the non-bracketed 2K Empire Classic, an event which has seen GB play two "true" road games already and go a perfect 2-0 ATS in them. The last game (vs. Morehead State) may have been the most impressive performance to date as the Phoenix led by double digits most of the second half in a game where they were a slight underdog. I'll take the points here.

Oregon is nationally ranked (#21) and I'm not going to disagree w/ the pollsters on that. But this 2K Empire Classic Event has not been all "wine and roses." They lost to Iowa in Madison Square Garden last week, 77-69, a game in which the Ducks shot just 37.1% from the floor. They never led and were down 11 at halftime. Now compare that to Green Bay's performance against the Hawkeyes, which came in Iowa City, where the Phoenix were down by only one point entering halftime. After losing to Iowa, Oregon has since rebounded w/ an 80-65 win over Syracuse, also in MSG. They were better in all facets in that game, namely holding the Orange to just 35.3% shooting. But don't think for a second that result didn't affect this line, which now looks to be inflated. 

Both of these teams have beaten Eastern Washington, Oregon doing so in much more lopsided fashion, but for them it was a home game while Green Bay had to go to Cheney to get the win. The Phoenix are 3-0 ATS their last three games and the two SU losses they have suffered so far have come by a total of 15 pts. The Ducks will be their toughest opponent to date and this is a third consecutive game out West in a five-day span. The win over Eastern Washington was an overtime game as well. But this is just too many points to lay if you're Oregon, which will have to deal w/ a full-court press that forced Iowa into 17 turnovers. Also, Green Bay has topped 80 points in three straight games, so it's going to be really tough to score enough to cover a big number like this against them. 8* WI-Green Bay

8* LA Clippers (7:05 ET): The Wizards are such a dumpster fire right now that I'm more than willing to look past the fact the Clippers are in the second night of a back to back here. Reports are coming in that everyone is on trade block in Washington and it's already been confirmed that John Wall and Bradley Beal have had to be reprimanded for verbally berating the team's coach and general manager in a public setting. Another report surfaced that the players on the team simply "don't like each other." So that's the backdrop for Tuesday night's game as the Wizards come in at a very disappointing 5-11 SU on the season while also owning the league's worst ATS record (4-11-1). 

While the Wizards have been a massive disappointment, the Clippers have been a pleasant surprise so far. Last night's come from behind effort in Atlanta was the Clips' fifth straight victory, giving them an 11-5 SU mark on the year. This current five-game run has seen them cover the spread every time while the Over is also a perfect 5-0. Last night, they did have to rally from a 15-point second half deficit to beat Atlanta 127-119. Obviously, that requires a lot of energy, but the key here is that this team is deep. Four reserves scored in double digits last night, led by Montrezl Harrell's 25 pts. The Clips are a top five team in offensive efficiency right now and should have no problems scoring on a Wizards team that is 27th in defensive efficiency and 29th in points allowed. 

While the Clippers have won five in a row as well as seven of its last eight, Washington has dropped B2B games, both here at home. The last one was even worse than it looked as they trailed Portland by 19 entering the 4th quarter, which is when beleaguered HC Scott Brooks benched his starters for the rest of the game. Not that it matters much, but Dwight Howard continues to be limited due to an ongoing glute injury. The Wizards are not shooting well from three-point range (32.7%), which is a problem in today's NBA. The only other time the Clippers have had to play a back to back this season, they won the second game, 116-110 in Miami. Even w/o second-leading scorer Gallinari and w/o rest, they deserve to be favored tonight. 8* LA Clippers

10* Over Suns/76ers (7:05 ET): Jimmy Butler's first game in a Philadelphia uniform probably should have been a win, but the Sixers gave it away late to Orlando and lost 111-106. But they're 2-0 since including a 122-119 OT win over Charlotte on Saturday that saw Butler hit the game-winner (a 33 foot three-pointer). Despite scoring 122 points, the Sixers didn't shoot the ball all that well, making only 42% of their field goal attempts. But they should no problem scoring tonight against a Suns team that ranks dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. The potential for a blowout is definitely there tonight, but I think Over is the better call here as BOTH teams should score plenty.

Since winning their season opener by 21 points (over Dallas), Phoenix has lost 12 of 14 in what promises to be another long season for this troubled franchise. Last Wednesday, they did pull an upset over San Antonio, 116-96, but followed that up by losing by 10 to Oklahoma City two days later. Those last two games have seen the Suns give up fewer points than usual (96, 110), but both were also at home. On the road, they are giving up 118.8 PPG, a big reason why they've yet to win a game outside of Phoenix. Here, they're facing a team that's unbeaten at home (8-0) and averaging 117.2 PPG in this building. 

Butler obviously gives the 76ers the "go-to" scorer that they previous lacked. In the three games since coming over from Minnesota, he's averaged just 19.0 PPG, but I certainly expect that average to go up moving forward. He's shot 57.9% from the floor as a Sixer. As I've hit on multiple times already, the Sixers should have no problems scoring in this game. The Suns have allowed at least 117 points in every road game this season. The only issue here is whether or not Phoenix will be able to score enough to help this one get Over. The one time Philadelphia was a double digit home favorite this year, the game easily went Over. The Over is also 5-1 in the L6 meetings between these two and 5-1 in the Sixers' last six games overall. 10* Over Suns/76ers

10* Rutgers (7:00 ET): Playing at home, I think Rutgers deserves more than being just a "token favorite." Sure, Eastern Michigan will be a player in the MAC this season, but all the Eagles have done so far is roll up some wins against unimpressive teams and also get annihilated by Duke. Now that latter component won't exactly put them in exclusive company by season's end. But it's the wins that have been less impressive to me, particularly one that they share over a common opponent w/ Rutgers. That would be Drexel, who EMU beat by only four points up in Ypsilanti back on November 9th. Just two days later, the Scarlet Knights rolled the Dragons by 29 in this very building. Those two results against the same opponent tell me that the favorite is undervalued in this one. 

Eastern Michigan is 4-1 so far. But their first three wins weren't all that impressive as they had the close call w/ Drexel and then two others against non-DI teams. The Eagles knew they'd be up against it facing Duke, but things went even worse than expected as they trailed 48-13 at the half and would go on to lose 84-46. Saturday saw the Eagles turn in - easily - their best performance so far as they beat Boston U 80-62 as 7.5-pt chalk and shot 52.5% overall. Senior Eliajh Minnie led the way w/ 28 pts, including 5 of 9 from three-point land. But I question the Eagles' ability to sustain that kind of three-point shooting. They were just 31% as a team from behind the arc including Minnie's 1 of 13. On the road, I think their struggles from deep are likely to reappear. 

While Rutgers is hardly a "flagship" Big 10 program, they're still a Power 5 school and Eastern Michigan has not done well in such spots. Since beating Michigan 45-42 back in 2014, the Eagles have lost nine straight to Power 5 schools and are just 5-43 SU in such games the L20 years. This includes a 3-23 SU record vs. the Big 10. The Scarlet Knights are off their first loss of the season, which was a wake-up call, as they fell by 19 here at home to St. John's on Friday. After averaging 92.5 PPG on roughly 53% shooting in the first two games, Rutgers shot just 34.9% in the loss to St. John's while at the same time allowing the Johnnie's to shoot 16 of 32 from three-point range. I suspect tonight will be a big-time bounce back from that loss. 10* Rutgers

8* Valparaiso (10:30 AM ET): The Myrtle Beach Invitational wraps up Sunday. This is a consolation game as both Wake and Valpo lost their first game. The team that Valpo lost to - Western Kentucky - will be playing in the Championship Game later tonight. There was not shame in losing to the Hilltoppers considering Valpo was a seven-point dog. WKU would also go on to upset West Virginia on Friday. Wake Forest lost its first game to a St. Joe's team that would go on to get blown out by UCF. The Demon Deacons did gain a measure of redemption Friday by beating CS-Fullerton in spite of shooting 33.9% for the game. Valpo beat Monmouth 64-53 as a six-point favorite. 

Wake lost 20 games last season, the fourth under HC Danny Manning. The season started well enough w/ a 90-pt effort over North Carolina A&T, but even then they only won by 12 as 21.5-pt favorites. Then came the St. Joe's loss where they fell victim to 16 three-pointers. Given that kind of shooting, the Demon Deacons had little chance and lost by 20. They did bounce back w/ a 66-59 win over CS-Fullerton. But even then, they needed to score the game's final seven points. To win here, they'll either need to shoot better than they did vs. CS-Fullerton or defend better than they did vs. St. Joes. Maybe both. Regardless, my numbers indicate the wrong team is favored this morning. 

Valpo was outshot badly by Western Kentucky in the first game here, but as I said earlier, that's no longer looking like a bad loss. They bounced back w/ a nice shooting night against Monmouth, also holding the Hawks to just 53 points. Over three games, the Crusaders are shooting 53%. At the same time, they're allowing just 39.7% shooting. Again, in my opinion, they're the better team here and I'll take the points. 8* Valparaiso 

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): These teams squared off last Friday in Philly. Despite falling behind by as many as 21 pts in the 1st half, the Hornets covered easily - and probably should have won the game outright. They led by five w/ just over a minute to go in regulation, but let the Sixers force OT. The final score was 133-132, but at least Charlotte was +6.5. The Hornets have had terrible luck in close games the L3 seasons and five of their seven losses this season have come by four points or fewer. But tonight, they'll be looking to rebound from a truly embarrassing defeat, one that saw them go down by 24 to an undermanned Cleveland team that they had just blown out the previous week. It was just Cleveland's second win of the season.

Charlotte is favored for this rematch and for good reason. They've had three days off to sit and stew about what happened in Cleveland. They should be highly motivated. Meanwhile, the Sixers will have had very little time to recoup from last night's hard fought 113-107 win over the Jazz. That was the home debut for the newly acquired Jimmy Butler, so there was a lot of emotion going into that game. Butler scored 28 pts to lead the team, but the real key was Utah shooting only 18.2% from behind the three-point arc (4 of 22). The Jazz also missed 16 of 37 free throw attempts in a six-point game. So the Sixers were both somewhat lucky to cover and win. This is a tough back to back as it's also Philly's third game in four nights and sixth in nine nights.

It'll also be the fourth road game in the last week for a Sixers team that is just 2-7 SU away from home (8-0 SU at home). The last time they took their act on the road, they lost SU as a favorite to Orlando. They're giving up nearly 116 PPG on the road this season. Charlotte is playing at home for the 1st time in 11 days and should be very motivated off a bad loss and playing w/ revenge. Note Charlotte has lost twice to Philly this season w/ the two losses coming by a total of three points. They've lost to them eight times in a row. If they can't break through tonight, then I don't know when they will as the spot is more than ideal. The Sixers are 0-4 SU/ATS in the second game of a back to back this year, all those games taking place on the road, and the four losses have come by an average of nearly 16 PPG. 10* Charlotte

10* Cal Santa Barbara (5:00 ET): The Gauchos have already treated me well this season. I took them in the season opener when they went to Wyoming and came away w/ an outright 76-66 victory as 6.5-pt dogs. Now, we know Wyoming isn't very good as we faded them again last night and came away w/ another outright winner, this time on Niagara getting 6.5 points. UCSB losing its second game, 82-63 at North Dakota State, has created a ton of value on this pick. Note the Gauchos were w/o Max Heidegger in that game as he was out w/ a concussion. He is expected back today as the team plays its second home game. They successfully rebounded from that loss to North Dakota State by thrashing D-III Cal Lutheran 88-32 on Tuesday. Lay the points here.

Montana State is a team we tried fading Wednesday, but they surprised me w/ a strong effort in covering at Colorado State. They still lost, mind you, 81-77 as 12.5-pt chalk. The Bobcats had not fared well at all in their first two games (more on that in a second), but were able to keep pace in Ft. Collins due to outshooting CSU from behind the three-point arc. Montana State made a season-best 14 three-pointers in that game while CSU went just 6 of 30 from behin the arc. I think I should reiterate the fact that the Bobcats first two games of the season saw them lose by 30 to Utah State (at home) and then by 45 at Indiana. This isn't a good team. Their one win came against non-board team Presentation College. 

These teams played last year w/ UCSB winning in a rout, 91-69. That game was Bozeman (on the road) and the Gauchos were actually slight dogs going in. I expect a somewhat similar result here today. The likely return of Heidegger, an All-Big West selection last year, will have the Gauchos going 12 deep for this game. This is an underrated team by the oddsmakers right now, so keep an eye on them moving forward. Montana State is playing its second road game in four days and I don't believe they're capable of playing as well as they did Wednesday at Colorado State (who was a little short-handed). Lay the points. 10* Cal Santa Barbara

8* Niagara (9:00 ET): Despite the reputation of having a strong homecourt advantage (due to the hight altitude in Laramie), I had no problem fading Wyoming in their season opener. They lost - outright - as six-point favorites to UC Santa Barbara, 76-66. The Cowboys followed that up w/ another loss, at Oregon State, in their next game. They finally won for the first time on Wednesday, 86-78 over Grambling, but did not cover as 12-pt chalk. So their ATS record is now 0-3 as they return home to face Niagara. While the Purple Eagles may not be as formidable as UCSB, they can still cover the spread here, if not pull the outright upset. They've already pulled one upset, 80-72 over St. Bonaventure, though that one was at home. Take the points. 

The follow up to that upset wasn't as good for Niagara as they went down 75-62 at the hands of Loyola IL. But they still covered that game as 16.5-pt dogs. Remember that Loyola-IL was a Final Four team last March! Amazingly, the Purple Eagles stayed inside the number despite shooting less than 30% for the game! I have to imagine they'll be more productive on the offensive end tonight and a huge key to this game could be free throw shooting. Niagara shot 17 of 19 from the FT line in their last game and is 48th in FTA rate. Wyoming is 288th in opponents FTA rate. I also look for the underdog to have the rebounding edge in this battle. They are 32nd in the country so far, pulling down 38.9 boards per game. Wyoming is allowing 39.1 rpg, which ranks 303rd nationally. 

I just don't think this Wyoming team is very good this year. In my analysis for Opening Night against UCSB, I cited the fact the Pokes lost four of their top five scorers from a year ago and they project as a terrible defensive team also. Right now, the team simply can't shoot. Through the first three games, they are at just 40% overall from the field, including a dreadful 27.6% from behind the arc. That's trouble for a team that was 317th in the country in points allowed last season. So far, all three Wyoming opponents have scored at least 76 points. Giving up that many points makes it hard to cover as a favorite and it's right in line w/ what they gave up last year as well (78.7 PPG allowed). 8* Niagara

10* Over Nets/Wizards (7:05 ET): We saw just how much Brooklyn is going to miss leading scorer Caris LaVert (out indefinitely) in their 120-107 loss to Miami on Tuesday. For a second straight game, the team struggled to shoot (40.2 FG%) and reserve Spencer Dinwiddie actually ended up being their leading scorer w/ 18 points in 29 minutes. However, defense has been the bigger concern for the Nets lately as they've allowed three straight teams to shoot 52.4% or better from the floor and given up 116, 120 and 120 points. I see the struggles on that end of the floor continuing tonight against a Washington side that has averaged 117.3 PPG during a three-game win streak. Take the Over in this one. 

The Wizards started the season out very poorly by losing 9 of their first 11 games. But they've rebounded over the six days to go 3-0, including what was - easily - their best performance to date on Wednesday. Granted, it was against lowly Cleveland (who was in a back to back), but they won by 24. Thanks to a 41-point 1st quarter, the Wiz never trailed. Getting 29 points off 24 Cavaliers turnovers certainly helped as did making 13 of 40 three-point attempts. If there is one area where I expect Washington to regress though, it's defensively. Cleveland's 95 points tied a season-low for a Wizards' opponent and it can't be understated just how undermanned the Cavs were in the second night of a back to back (off a rare win no less). 

Though Wednesday marked Washington's highest scoring half of the season (73 points), they didn't receive much from John Wall, who finished the game w/ a season-low eight points in 21 minutes. He was just 3 of 10 shooting. I would expect Wall to play better tonight and thus we won't see much dropoff from the Wizards offensively. The key here is can Brooklyn find scoring options w/o LaVert? Considering Washington isn't very good defensively (26th in efficiency), they should have their chances. Six Nets players did finish in double figures in the loss to Miami. Brooklyn is 24th in defensive efficiency, so this very much could turn into an "up and down" type game. 10* Over Nets/Wizards

8* North Dakota State (2:00 ET): I do believe that the wrong team may be favored here in a 1st round matchup of the Bahamas Showcase. Miami OH might be off a 91-42 win, but it was against an overmatched opponent (Midway) w/ extreme shooting percentages. We won't be seeing the RedHawks shoot 56% again in this game nor will we see the hold the opposition to just 26%. Note that in the RedHawks' first game, they lost 90-68 at Butler with the shooting percentages basically flipped. 

Here they face a North Dakota State team off an impressive 82-63 win over Cal Santa Barbara. They held the Gauchos to just 37% shooting. That was a nice bounce back after losing out in Las Cruces (New Mex St) in the season opener. The Bison really struggled to shoot the ball in that first game, but were much better offensively on Sunday. After taking a 15-13 lead midway through the first half, they would never trail again. 

An interesting bit of handicapping here - Miami has not played in a true bracketed regular season tournament in a decade. So this format may not favor them. They are just 2-9 ATS their L11 neutral site games and don't have a ton of depth. Like I said at the outset, I think the Bison are the better team here, so I'll take the points. 8* North Dakota State

8* Denver (9:05 ET): After looking like one of the best teams in the league through its first 10 games, Denver has shockingly dropped four in a row, all as favorites. Most shocking of all is that the last three losses all came at home where the typically enjoy a tremendous advantage. Tonight should signal the turnaround that they've been looking for, however, as lowly Atlanta pays a visit. The Hawks have lost 9 of 10 and are playing their third road game in five nights. Most would consider them to be the worst team in the league and I cannot disagree. Lay the points. 

Tuesday marked the Nuggets' first double digit loss of the season as they fell to Houston, 109-99. That was also only the second time getting held below 100 pts. Two of their previous three losses had come by just two points. Poor defense has cost them the L2 games as they allowed Milwaukee and Houston to shoot 57.1% and 54.9%. Fortunately, the Hawks are not either Milwaukee or Houston and should be a much easier team to defend. Atlanta is just 28th in offensive efficiency and has shot better than 50% from the floor in just two games all season, one of them against Cleveland.

The Hawks also could be a little short-handed here w/ three players listed as questionable for various reasons. With a weak overall roster, that amount of absence can be devastating. Despite the losing skid, I still believe in this Nuggets team. Before losing to Houston two nights ago, the team was 6-2 ATS when on a losing streak of at least three games (over the L3 seasons). Atlanta is just 1-7 SU on the road, giving up over 118 PPG. After actually competing against both the Lakers and Warriors (who were short-handed themselves) in the last four days, the Hawks may very well run out of gas in the thin air tonight. 8* Denver

10* Fresno State (9:00 ET): Earlier in the week, I took exception w/ LSU being included in the Top 25. So I faded them and came away w/ an ATS win on Memphis. I feel even more strongly against TCU's placement in the Top 25. The Horned Frogs will come into tonight's game ranked #21 in the country, but I do not have them in my own personal top 50! So this looks like another great spot to take advantage of the pollsters and the perception they place on the betting public. I realize that TCU has a strong core group of players, but outside of their "big three" this is a relatively inexperienced team. Fresno State is only two years removed from a NCAA Tournament berth and won 21 games last season. They are absolutely capable of pulling the upset tonight in Ft. Worth. Take the points. 

Desmond Bane, JD Miller and Alex Robinson are going to have to carry this TCU squad early in the season because w/ PG Jaylen Fisher out, the other nine players are essentially all new faces. Throw in the fact that two of the new starters, Kouat Noi and Lat Mayen, are both out with knee injuries and depth has already become a bit of a concern for HC Jamie Dixon. The Horned Frogs are 2-0 thus far, but failed to cover against both CS-Bakersfield and Oral Roberts. The former matchup saw them win by only five despite being favored by 18. Dixon has never lost a November game since becoming the HC at TCU, but it could very well happen tonight, even though the Horned Frogs are double digit favorites.

Not only is Fresno State a little underrated in my eyes, the Bulldogs are also well rested coming into tonight's game. They've only played one game and it was last Tuesday against Alaska-Anchorage, an easy 91-63 win. New Mexico State transfer Braxton Higgins led the way w/ 23 points. I have to say that I'm a little shocked that the media picked this team to finish 5th in the Mt West given that FSU has won 20+ games each of the last three seasons as well as four of the last five. This rested underdog is also playing w/ a bit of revenge as they lost to TCU in the 2017 NIT, 66-59, but covered as nine-point dogs. Bottom line is that I have this game being way closer than the oddsmakers do. 10* Fresno State

10* Colorado State (9:00 ET): Colorado State has had to start the year short-handed thanks to redshirting and a suspension. But it's hardly mattered as they easily disposed of two non-board teams (Colorado Christian and Ark-Pine Bluff) by an average of nearly 30 PPG. The Rams have been able to sustain the personnel losses to the fact they're a deep team this year w/ multiple freshman already contributing. First year HC Niko Medved is doing a good job w/ this team and they should have very little difficulty dominating a terrible Montana State team Wednesday night. Lay the points. 

Montana State won for the 1st time on Sunday, beating a school named "Presentation College," (a NAIA school). But before that, the Bobcats had been absolutely annihilated in their first two games, losing 101-71 to Utah State and 80-35 at Indiana. I don't think tonight's game will go a whole lot better for them. Against Indiana, which was a road game, the Bobcats shot a dismal 25.5% from the field, which is one of the lowest percentages you'll see all season. I think the fact we're getting this team off a rare win is helpful. Not only is the spread not as high as it should be, but the players themselves might now be a bit overconfident. 

When it comes to depth, this matchup is a no-contest. Six different players are averaging at least 12 PPG for Colorado State while two players account for 44% of total scoring for Montana State. If the Rams can shut down either MSU standout, Keljin Blevins or Tyler Hall, then they'll have no problem winning this game in a romp. Turnovers should also be key here as the Bobcats have been giving away possessions quite regularly so far. They had 25 turnovers against Indiana, for example. In two games, CSU has turned it over just 15 times. Montana State is a program w/ eight straight losing seasons and they simply are overmatched again tonight. 10* Colorado State

10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): I have these teams rated fairly even, so it looks like the wrong one is favored when you take into account where the game is being played. Miami is hardly a bunch of "world beaters" (lost three in a row & six of eight), so they really shouldn't be road favorites against anybody right now, save for the dregs of the league. Granted, the Nets have spent several seasons being counted among the dregs, but they appear to be much improved for 2018-19. They haven't played a ton of home games so far, but have managed to start the season at a respectable 6-8 SU. Take the points. 

The Nets were 6-6 SU before dropping their last two games, both of which were on the road and one was at Golden State. Monday night saw them lose 120-113 in Minnesota where the story was a scary looking injury to Caris LeVert. Thankfully, it appears as if the injury is not as serious as initially believed and LeVert can still return later this season. I suspect the injury has a lot to do w/ the Nets being underdogs here. LeVert was their leading scorer (18.4 PPG), so him being out definitely hurts. But I think there's enough remaining talent on hand to compete and certainly win this game. Miami's defense hasn't been good of late w/ them allowing an average of 114 pts over the L8 games. 

The Heat have won 11 of the previous 15 meetings w/ the Nets. But these are two franchises trending in opposite directions right now. Brooklyn took three of the four meetings last season. Miami is a bit of a mess having turned the ball over 15+ times in 10 of their 13 games. They were also called for 30 fouls in Monday's 124-114 loss to Philadelphia. Something else to note is that Miami's last three losses all came at home. Their two road wins this year have been by a total of six points w/ one coming by a single point at sorry Washington. They too are missing personnel and it's pretty clear to me that they're an overvalued team in the marketplace. 10* Brooklyn

8* Memphis (7:00 ET): This looks to be too many points that LSU is laying in their first "real" test of the season. Like every other game in this package, it's also a revenge spot for the team I'm taking. Memphis, in its first year under Penny Hardaway, figures to be a lot better than they were the last couple of seasons. They won their 1st game for Hardaway, as expected, 76-61 over Tennessee Tech. But they just missed out on the cover as 16-pt favorites. I'm going to like this Tigers team more as a dog anyway, like tonight. A dreadful shooting night cost them last year against LSU. The same thing won't happen again this time. Take the points.

LSU is 2-0 having topped 90 pts in both games. But there is some cause for concern, especially at the defensive end of the floor. In a 97-91 win over UNC Greensboro over the weekend, they allowed 19 made three-pointers, the most EVER by a visiting team in Baton Rouge! Overall, the Tigers are allowing 46.4% shooting from behind the arc, which will absolutely come back to bite them if that number can't come down. Memphis is a big step up in class for them after facing SE Louisiana and UNC Greensboro. LSU is a young team as well w/ freshman accounting for more than 50% of their total pts so far. 

Memphis has a lot of freshman they're hoping to see contribute as well. The four newcomers to the program struggled against Tenn Tech, but I see their collective numbers improving after they combined to shoot just 5 of 24 in that opening game. Hardaway luckily can rely on his seniors, one of them being Mike Parks Jr, who had to miss the opener due to a back injury. I mentioned earlier that Memphis shot the ball terribly LY vs. LSY. They were just 37.3% from the field, including 4 of 22 from three-point range, in the 71-61 loss as 2-pt home dogs. This year's squad is going to do better. I'm not sure why LSU finds itself in the Top 25 this week; I barely count them among my top 50 teams in the country. 8* Memphis

10* Florida International (7:00 ET): Wisconsin-Milwaukee has started out the season quite poorly w/ losses to Boston College (by 20) and North Dakota. Expect FIU to have little sympathy for the Panthers however, as this is a revenge spot for them. It stems from a 66-51 loss last season, which took place in Milwaukee where "our" Panthers were 13-pt underdogs. This time around, it would appear that FIU has a sizable edge, though it's not being properly accounted for by the oddsmakers. I'll gladly step in and lay the short number here as the favorite should take care of business. 

It may been two clearly overmatched opponents, but FIU is certainly feeling optimistic about its chances here based on a 2-0 start. They topped 100 pts against both Webber College and Johnson & Wales, two non-board teams. They averaged 113.5 PPG on 52.3% shooting in the pair of wins. Looking ahead, it may never again be quite that easy offensively, but the Panthers should definitely find ways to score in this game. 1st year HC Jeremy Ballard, the latest to be plucked from the VCU coaching tree, walked into a great situation here by inheriting four returning starters. Offense was the primary concern coming into the year, but Ballard's boys seem well on their way to blowing past LY's production when FIU ranked 317th nationally in three-point shooting. 

FIU is also playing some defense as it held the first two opponents to just 31.1% shooting while forcing 55 turnovers! Again, I realize the teams that they played had no chance. But the performances will definitely give this team some confidence for its first "real" test of the season. Wisc-Milwaukee is shooting a dreadful 30.3% from the floor so far and managed only 17 first half pts Saturday at home vs. North Dakota. It's a bad sign when you're leaning on a transfer who only averaged 1.4 PPG last season. Wisc-Milwaukee has just three players total back from LY's sub-.500 squad, including only one starter. They are going to struggle this year. 10* Florida International

8* UNC Wilmington (7:00 ET): Yet another revenge spot! Although unlike the other two matchups in this report, this is NOT a battle of teams w/ the same nickname. It is, however, a battle of in-state rivals. UNC Greensboro won LY's meeting, 71-58, as 8.5-pt home chalk. It would appear as if the oddsmakers are giving the Spartans a bit too much "credit" out here on the road. I can only assume that has to do w/ them taking #22 LSU down to the wire in Baton Rouge over the weekend. By making 19 three-pointers in the contest, the Spartans were easily able to cover the 10-pt spread in a 97-91 loss. But I don't think they'll replicate that kind of shooting here. 

UNC Wilmington is 0-2 on the year, so they enter tonight as a desperate team. A 97-93 loss to Campbell was an auspicious start to the year, but be aware that game went into overtime. It was close the whole way. That game was on the road, so the Seahawks hoped for better in their home debut Friday vs. Stanford where they were drawing an opponent making a rare cross-country trip. Unfortunately, the Seahawks lost that game by 13 on a bad offensive night (shot just 35.2% overall). They did lead by as many as eight early, but actually went into the break down 14 thanks to a 7 1/2 minute stretch w/o a field goal. 

So you have one team, laying points on the road, coming off a historically great shooting night. Then you have a home dog coming off a poor shooting performance. I'll side with the latter here in what should be a bounce back performance. It was poor shooting that cost the Seahawks last year's meeting. But I don't see that happening again. This is more points than they were getting against Stanford, which seems crazy. This is also UNC Greensboro's third straight road game to open the year, all played within a span of a week. Good spot to fade them. 8* UNC Wilmington

10* Under Spurs/Kings (10:05 ET): The Western Conference is just LOADED this season w/ only a handful of teams aware that they are not playoff contenders. Sacramento was supposed to be among those "building for the future," but even they have surprisingly started 7-6 SU despite being an underdog in all but one game. Meanwhile, it's an interesting year in San Antonio as this is the first time in about 20 seasons where the Spurs are NOT projected to be Conference Title contenders (hence the short line for this matchup). Thanks to a lot of high totals, the Kings have been going Under with more regularity of late. This O/U line isn't quite as high, but I believe the trend will continue against a Spurs team that still knows how to play defense. 

Case in point; the Spurs just held the Rockets to 89 points in a key win Saturday night. Now the Rockets may not be what they were a season ago, but that's still a pretty impressive number to hold ANY opponent to, in this day and age. The Spurs held Miami to just 95 pts last Wednesday, but the only thing there is they lost that game by six points. With virtually the entire core of the last several seasons gone, San Antonio is probably going to struggle to score this season. They also continue to play at a very slow pace (tied for 26th) under HC Greg Popovich. But they'll continue to lean on that defensive play which has limited four of the last five points to 95 pts or fewer. 

Sacramento has had no luck through the years against San Antonio, losing the last 14 meetings. What's pretty remarkable about that is they have NEVER once topped 105 pts in the 14-game losing skid. It's certainly not a good sign that they scored only 85 pts Saturday night against a Lakers team not exactly known for its defense and shot just 34.8% from the floor. I don't think for a second that the Kings will be able to maintain a .500 record for very long, but if there is one positive development it's them ranking middle of the pack in defensive efficiency after spending years near the bottom of the league in that category. They have held five of their last nine opponents below 42% shooting. The Under is 5-1 so far in Sacramento home games. 10* Under Spurs/Kings.

8* LA Monroe (8:00 ET): This is a bad spot for Texas to be laying so many points. Shaka Smart's Longhorns just survived an overtime game against Arkansas over the weekend, winning 73-71. Despite leading at the half, the Horns were somewhat lucky to even get the game into OT considering they went almost 10 minutes in the 2H w/o making a single field goal. Close games have somewhat become the norm in Austin under HC Smart as half of their games LY were decided in the final minute or overtime. Heck, they only won their opener against Eastern Illinois by 12 points. LA Monroe is an underdog deserving of respect. The Warhawks won't win, but they'll keep it close.

There was some fear in Monroe that this team might struggle to score in 2018-19 due to being fairly thin along the front line. However, so far, those fears have proven to be unfounded. Four players are averaging double figures so far, led by senior Daishon Smith (17.0 PPG), a transfer from Wichita State. And the concern about a lack of big men hasn't really mattered as the Warhawks have blocked 15 shots in two games, both wins. They've won at Jackson State (75-66) and then clobbered non-board team Millsaps 94-52 Saturday in the home opener. Against Millsaps, they shot better than 50%. Obviously, it's going to be a far greater challenge tonight. But this dog can score enough to stay within a generous number, in my opinion.

These squads met last year w/ Texas winning easily, 80-59 as 17.5-pt chalk. Both teams are better this season, so I'm a bit surprised to find the spread has increased for this rematch. LA Monroe shot very poorly LY here in Austin, making only 30% of their total shot attempts, including 8 of 34 from three-point range. They also attempted only 11 free throws. It's been established that the Warhawks are much better offensively now than they were at this time a year ago. We'll see about the size issue, but the Longhorns might still be gassed from playing an OT game 48 hrs ago. Plus they struggled to score, making covering a large number like this problematic. 8* LA Monroe

10* Pittsburgh (7:00 ET): Pitt is off to a nice start this season w/ a pair of double digit wins over Youngstown State and VMI coming by an average of 27.5 PPG. That may not sound like a whole lot to get excited about, but remember the Panthers hit a program low point last year when they went winless in ACC play. Right now, this team is underrated (and should continue to be in the early part of the season) as I love the Jeff Capel hire as HC. Capel learned under Coach K. While he has a young team, it's one that is coming together more quickly than expected. Lay the points.

Troy comes into this game 1-1. They did lead by as many as 13 at St. Louis on Saturday, but could not hold on due to poor shooting. The Trojans shot just 38.9% for the game, including a woeful 23.8% from three-point range. It was certainly a far cry from their 96-50 victory in the season opener against Fort Valley State, but then again that was to be expected given FVS is a D-II team. My view is that the Trojans are going to continue to struggle to score as Wesley Person (graduated) is going to be missed this season. Person scored more than 2,000 points and shot better than 37% from 3-pt range in his four years here.

Adding to Troy's offensive problems here is the fact Pitt held its first two opponents to 26.9% and 33.9% shooting and an average of 54 points. At the same time, Pitt shot 63% from the floor against VMI (who admittedly is NOT known for its defensive prowess). Three freshman have stepped up for the Panthers, who also got senior Jared Wilson-Frame back in the lineup vs. VMI. Pitt has covered its last six non-conference games and while Troy did cover at St. Louis, they're just 1-4 ATS when off an ATS win. 10* Pittsburgh

10* Denver (8:05 ET): This already figured to be a terrible spot for Milwaukee as it's their fifth game in eight days, third in four and second of a back to back. It's also the finale of a four-game trip out West and they're ending in Denver after playing in the Pacific Time Zone (LA) yday. Losing that hour is critical as going from the West Coast to Denver has long been one of the most brutal spots any NBA team can face not just b/c of the time change, but also due to the thin air here, which leads to added fatigue. Never mind the fact that the Nuggets are also now one of the NBA's best teams. So that's what Milwaukee was already up against coming into Sunday and now the situation is made worse by the fact they lost an overtime game Saturday to the Clippers. The Bucks are a big-time fade for me tonight. 

Milwaukee was "riding high" coming into the weekend as they were 9-2 and coming off a 134-111 thrashing of the Warriors (in Oakland) on Thursday. But the OT loss to the Clippers yesterday afternoon had to take a lot out of them. They were down 15 early, but battled back and it's a game they could have won. But they lost on a buzzer beater instead. While on the subject of winning, I should point out that's something that Milwaukee has NOT done here in Denver since 2010. Also, the Bucks are only 3-3 SU on the road this year. They've lost three of the past four road games in fact. 

Don't expect the Nuggets to feel the least bit sorry for the Bucks tonight. They are coming off B2B two-point losses to Memphis and Brooklyn, the latter coming right here at home. It was Denver's 1st home loss of the season. But they're still 6-1 SU here and outscoring visitors by 10 PPG. Despite losing to Brooklyn 112-110 on Friday (I had the Over!), Nuggets star Nikola Jokic had a breakout game w/ 37 points and 21 rebounds. Jokic been shockingly quiet in the team's previous four contests, so it was nice to see him assert himself. I'll call for another big game from him tonight. This may be a battle of two teams in the top five in the league right now, but one has a clear advantage. Last weekend, the Nuggets beat Utah by double digits in a similar situation. 10* Denver

10* Under Fort Wayne/Ohio State (4:00 ET): Obviously, this is not a matchup I'd normally pay much attention to, unless something caught my eye. In this instance, we have a clearly inflated total due to the previous peformance of one of the two participants and that performance clearly is not going to be duplicated again here. I'm referencing Fort Wayne and their 112-point effort Thursday against D-III Earlham College where five players scored in double figures. It's a big step up in class for the Mastadons on Sunday as they visit Ohio State. 

While everyone in Columbus is probably still out celebrating yday's win on the football field over Michigan State, hopefully the basketball team's 64-56 win over Cincinnati was not missed. Wednesday night saw the Buckeyes (were +4.5) upset the Bearcats in the latter's return to its on-campus arena where it didn't even get to play one game all of last season. OSU did it w/ defense, holding Cincy to a ridiculously low 27.4% shooting for the game. It was a shockingly easy victory for the Buckeyes, who led virtually the entire way and at point held the Bearcats w/o a field goal for eight minutes in the 1st half. 

We obviously need to be wary of the Fort Wayne defense here as it was torched for 96 points by UCLA in the season's first game. But I don't see Ohio State coming close to matching that here, given they were hardly world-beaters offensively Wednesday night. They're looking to replace some key contributors from LY's 25-win team, including their top three-point shooter. Right before the start of the season, both of these teams lost a player; Ohio State via transfer and Ft. Wayne to injury. Note that Ft. Wayne was a dreadful 9 of 34 from three-point range in the game vs. UCLA. One good thing is they're allowing just 30% shooting from behind the arc in the two games. Look for this be more of a "grind it out" type game. 10* Under Fort Wayne/Ohio State