10* Michigan (9:20 ET): There are two ways to view Michigan's path to Monday's National Championship Game. One is the fact that they've been extremely fortunate. In five games, they have yet to play a team seeded higher than six. They benefited from the fact that the top two seeds in their region, Xavier & North Carolina, failed to make it out of the first weekend. (Now, it's worth noting the Wolverines did later go on to beat the two teams that upset Xavier & UNC). They also won a game at the buzzer (over Houston). Then, in the Final Four, they were matched up w/ the ultimate Cnderella (an 11-seed at that), Loyola Chicago. A more positive/optimistic view of their path is that they've advanced this far despite - pretty clearly - NOT being at their best in four of the five games (Texas A&M, the exception), at least on the offensive end. They even covered for me (big time!) Saturday night vs. Loyola despite trailing much of the game. 

Villanova has had no difficulty in this Tournament. They've won all five games by double digits, by an average of 15.8 points per game. They are 5-0 ATS. They so thoroughly dominated Kansas, a 1-seed, that the game was over arguably less than seven minutes after it started (led 22-4). It was a double-digit game the rest of the way as the Wildcats would go onto record a Final Four record w/ 18 three-pointers made and they shot 55% overall from the field. It was the fourth time in the tourney that they topped 80 pts. Now it should be pointed out that Kansas was - by far - the weakest Final Four team in terms of defensive efficiency. Michigan, as noted in my GOY writeup, is the strongest (3rd in the country). If you've been following this incredible tournament run of mine, then you already know defensive efficiency is the key metric I've been leaning on most. The fact the Wolverines are so stout defensively, and getting points for the 1st time in the Tournament, makes them quite attractive to me. 

Michigan allows only 62.9 PPG for the season. They've held four tournament opponents, Texas A&M the exception ironically, to 63 pts or fewer. NCAA Tournament opponents are shooting just 38.7% against them overall. John Beilein's team is also 7-2 ATS as an underdog. Though the Tournament opposition has been easier than expected, it's not as if they haven't beaten any good teams this season. In the Big 10 Tournament, they beat Michigan State and Purdue on consecutive nights. There is next to zero chance that 'Nova will shoot as well here as they did Saturday. In fact, I feel pretty comfortable in calling for their worst offensive performance of the Tournament Monday night. At the same time, despite the issues of shooting in a dome, I believe Michigan is due for a far better offensive performance than what we saw Saturday. While 'Nova is going for its second title in three years, Michigan will be trying to erase an 0-3 SU record in Championship Games since '92 (two losses by Fab Five). The Wolverines aren't likely to be blown out (only two double digit losses all year), so I'll take the points. 10* Michigan

8* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): Here we have two teams fighting for one of the last playoff spots in their respective conferences. Milwaukee is far safer in the East as they hold the 7th position (one-half game up on idle Miami) and have a five-game cushion over ninth place Detroit w/ only six games left to play. Barring a complete collapse, they are going to make the playoffs. It's just a question of where they finish as it could be anywhere from sixth to eighth. Out West, Denver is in a far more precarious position. They are two games back of the 8th spot. (This despite having the same record as Milwaukee). If the Nuggets ultimately fail to make the playoffs, it can probably be pinned on their terrible road record, which currently stands at 14-25 straight up. 

However, tonight Denver is at home. But laying points isn't what I'd do in this spot, especially as it marks a return home after a long seven-game road trip that took them all around the country. They've only had one day off since ending that trip w/ a 126-125 win over Oklahoma City that not only required overtime, but also a season-best 36 pts from Paul Milsap. Most would excuse giving up 125 pts as a product of OT, but the Nuggets are not a good team at the defensive end as they rank 27th in efficiency. (Two of the teams that are worse are Sacramento and Phoenix. The other is Cleveland). Sure, the team has been able to cover some of that w/ the fact they are also sixth in offensive efficiency. But Milwaukee is right there w/ them at the offensive end (7th in efficiency) while also ranking a superior 18th on the defensive end. 

The Bucks are playing the fourth and final game of a road trip here. It started w/ a loss to the Clippers, but they've bounced back w/ wins over Golden State and the Lakers. They too needed overtime to win their last game (124-122 over the Lakers), but note they were also up double digits going into the fourth quarter of that game. Of course, the same could be said for Denver against OKC as well. But I simply hate the spot for the Nuggets as teams often struggle in their first home game back after a long road trip. Plus, they're being asked to lay points and still don't have second-leading scorer Gary Harris, Jr. Wilson Chandler also left the OKC game w/ a nose injury and is listed as questionable to play tonight. The Bucks have revenge here for a 134-123 loss last month where the Nuggets hit an incredible 24 of 40 three-point attempts. That will certainly NOT happen this go around. 8* Milwaukee

10* Dallas (6:05 ET): The poor Mavs! This team has never been able to catch a break all season. Now if you want to point out that a team that's currently 30 games under .500 simply isn't any good, that's fine. But be aware that Dallas (23-53 SU) has only been outscored by an average of 2.5 points per game this season. That's infinitely superior to the team right above them in the Western Conference standings, Sacramento, who is 24-53 SU, but w/ a per game point differential of -7.4. Of the four "bottom-feeders" in the Western Conference, Dallas is clearly "best" and actually closer in point differential to the 33-42 Lakers than Sacramento, Memphis or Phoenix. Based on point differential, the Mavericks have a win expectancy of 30, making them the biggest underachiever in the league right now when it comes to actual vs. expected wins.

Tonight's opponent, Cleveland, is ironically one of the biggest overachievers in terms of actual and expected games won. LeBron and company have struggled through a lot of injuries, adversity and out-and-out bad defense this year. They are still third in the Eastern Conference mind you, but only one-half game ahead of Philadelphia and one full game ahead of Indiana, both of whom have better YTD point differentials and net efficiency ratings. The Cavs may be 46-30 SU, but w/ a per game point differential of only +0.7, you'd "expect" them to only have 40 wins. Not surprisingly, they have been a disaster at the betting window this year, particularly in the favorite role. When laying points, the three-time defending Eastern Conference champs are a money-burning 16-41 ATS. 

The Cavs' defense has generally been hideous all season long and they come into this game ranked 28th in efficiency, ahead of only Sacramento and Phoenix. While they did just beat New Orleans here at home on Friday, 107-102, it was a struggle and they trailed much of the game. The Cavs' home record may be 26-11 SU, but they're only outscoring visiting teams by 1.0 PPG! Kevin Love may be back in the lineup after suffering a concussion, but PG George Hill was injured in the game vs. New Orleans and Kyle Korver remains out as well. Dallas may only have nine road wins all season and they've dropped seven of eight overall. But none of those losses have been by more than 10 points. They lost by one at home to Minnesota on Friday and are a healthy 31-24 ATS as underdogs this season. Cleveland has proven itself totally untrustworthy laying this many points and with a number of big games vs. Eastern Conference opponent looming this week, it will be easy for them to overlook this contest. I suspect we'll get Dallas' best shot and I'll take the points. 10* Dallas

10* Golden State (10:05 ET): The Warriors are finally getting closer to full strength. Steph Curry remains out, but for the first time in more than three weeks, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are set to share the court together. That should be more than enough to breeze by the lowly Kings, a team the Dubs have predictably owned for the last several seasons. But despite being locked into the second seed in the Western Conference, the Warriors won't be w/o motivation here. Not only are they on their longest losing streak of this season (three games), but they have some revenge to exact against Sacramento, who won 98-93 in Oakland two weeks ago. With three of the "Big Four" healthy, the line here should be a lot closer to where my power rankings suggest it should be (-14). Lay the points. 

The Warriors are only 3-10 ATS in March. The entirety of this three-game losing streak has come at home. Clearly, this is not a normal occurrence in Golden State. Durant returned two nights ago vs. Milwaukee, but did not last long as he was ejected in the second quarter for arguing w/ the officials. That left Green and little else to compete. The Dubs did shoot nearly 55% from the field, including 10 of 20 from three-point range, but shockingly, the Bucks were even better and it was a 20-point game going into the fourth quarter! Golden State was favored by four in that game, so we see Durant's effect on the line there and coupled w/ the probable return of Thompson, we can almost go back to handicapping this team in normal fashion. This is just the second three-game losing streak that the Warriors have suffered in the last three seasons. 

Sacramento has been at the bottom of the league all season. This is no surprise as they were expected to be terrible before the start of the season. Really, they're quite fortunate to even have 24 wins considering their YTD point differential of -556 (-7.3 per game) is indicative of an 18-win team. Only Phoenix has been outscored by a wider margin this season. While the Kings have been a little more competitive of late, they've still dropped five of six as they continue to deal w/ the distraction that is the ongoing protests outside the arena (in response to the shooting of an unarmed civilian by the police). I'm expecting the best performance out of Golden State we've gotten in awhile and it comes at the expense of one of the worst teams in the league. 10* Golden State

10* Michigan (6:09 ET): In the more unlikely of the two national semifinal matchups, we have #3 seed Michigan vs. #11 seed Loyola Chicago. The latter is the lowest seed ever to make a Final Four, matching the achievement set by former Missouri Valley member Wichita State back in 2013. Ironically, that was the same year that Michigan last made the Final Four! Both of these squads wound up w/ far easier than expected paths to San Antonio. Incredibly, the Wolverines did not have to defeat a team seeded higher than sixth to win their region! The two top seeds in their region, Xavier and North Carolina, failed to make it out of the first weekend. However, after their own close call vs. Houston in the second round (won at the buzzer), the Maize and Blue did defeat the teams (Texas A&M, Florida St) that ousted those top two seeds. Like Michigan, Loyola also saw the top two seeds in its region fall in the first weekend. They did beat Tennessee (a 3-seed) in Rd 2, but other than that, they also didn't beat a team seeded higher than sixth. Again, just like Michigan, they beat a 7-seed (Nevada) in the Sweet 16 and then a 9-seed (Kansas St) in the Elite 8. 

While we've established that Michigan and Loyola had similar paths to this point, that doesn't necessarily mean the two sides are equal. I don't think there's any disputing the Wolverines are better on paper (that's why they're favored). They also have the highest defensive efficiency rating of any of the Final Four teams and if you've been following this great Tournament run of mine, then you know that's the key metric I've been leaning on throughout. While Michigan shot astronomically well in the 99-72 win over Texas A&M (I had 'em there!), they've been below average offensively in the other three wins (scored 61, 64 and 58 pts). Here, I envision a scenario where they continue to play well defensively, while at the same time shooting the ball better. I don't think that's a unrealistic scenario. After all, they have allowed just 63.1 PPG over the course of the season and only two of their last 12 opponents have topped 64 points. Offensively, they are shooting at a 47% clip this season, but have been below that in three of four Tournament games. Even in the spacious Alamodome, I expect their three-point shooting to be better than it was against Houston and Florida St (combined 12 of 52). 

Loyola's first three tournament wins were by a combined four points, two of them won on a shot in the final seconds. Then, they blew out Kansas State 78-62 on a hot shooting night where they finished 57.4% from the field. It was the third straight game the Ramblers shot 50% or better. They are a ridiculous 56% from the field the L2 games. Needless to say that's not happening here. Not against a Michigan team that is #3 in the country in defensive efficiency. It's pretty clear to me that the Wolverines are not only the best team Loyola will have faced in this tournament, but all year as well. Obviously, the same is not true the other way around. In fact, I would rank both Houston and Texas A&M as better than Loyola. It's pretty crazy to me that the spread here is essentially identical to 'Nova-Kansas, despite the gap in talent here being far wider. Michigan has covered all five times this year it has faced an opponent that allows less than 64 PPG. 10* Michigan

8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): I've been waiting for a bit of "Portland regression" for awhile now. Despite the increasing likelihood of them finishing 3rd in the West (2.5 games up on Spurs/Thunder), the Blazers are only sixth in the Conference when it comes to point differential and net efficiency. But how could anyone have anticipated regression would have taken place at the hands of lowly Memphis? Playing the second game of a back to back (and third game in four nights) at the end of road trip (and no Damian Lillard), the Blazers lost 108-103 to the Grizzlies Wednesday night. Lillard is expected back in the lineup here (birth of first child), but the underrated Moe Harkless (starting small forward) will not be as his regular season is likely done after suffering a knee injury in the loss to Memphis. I'm going to grab the points w/ the Clippers.

Despite Wednesday's loss, Portland remains 24-8 SU in its last 32 games. They won 13 in a row at one point, the last game of that streak ironically being a win over these Clippers. That game took place in LA w/ the Clippers as a slight 1.5-pt favorite. The final was 122-109, but since that time they have struggled shooting from behind the three-point line. The last five games, they are just 29.3 percent from distance. With a possibly distracted Lillard and no Harkless, I don't see this being the game where Portland gets back on track offensively. Note that when off a SU loss as a favorite, they are only 6-6 straight up this season.

The Clippers will not be a "sympathetic ear" when it comes to Portland's health. They have sustained a list of injuries that is too large to go through here. Yet, despite all that and trading away Blake Griffin midseason, Doc Rivers' team is somehow still in playoff contention. They enter tonight's game on a three-game SU and ATS win streak and are 4-1 SU/ATS the L5 games (only loss by five at Indiana). That has them at 41-34 SU w/ seven games to go and trailing 8th place Utah by only one game for the final playoff spot. They are only two games out of sixth place! Last we saw them they were having no problems with awful Phoenix, whom they defeated 111-99 as 11-pt road favorites. Note that the Clips are 16-5 SU this season when off a double digit victory. They are also 24-14 ATS on the road. I believe this desperate team, taking points, is a live dog Friday night in a must-win spot for them on national TV. 8* LA Clippers

10* Over Bulls/Magic (7:05 ET): The last 10 times these teams have met, the Under has cashed every time. That's quite the streak. I'm going to lean not only on the "just due factor," but the fact that these two bottom-feeders aren't likely to play much defense in this relatively meaningless March affair. Yes, I'm going w/ the Over. Chicago played last night and for the third consecutive game failed to score 100 points (lost 103-92 to Miami). Even though the Bulls are 29th in offensive efficiency, going three consecutive games w/o scoring 100 pts is pretty uncommon in today's NBA. Even with all the blantant tanking that's going on the Windy City, the team still averages 103.1 PPG this season. They also are allowing 113.1 PPG on the road, which is just as key to this play. Orlando is no stalwart defensively either as they allow 109.1 PPG overall this season. Over is the play.

This game does carry some minor importance for the Magic as they are looking to avoid a season sweep at the hands of the Bulls. Three times these teams have met in 2017-18 and on every occasion, Chicago has emerged triumphant. The first two were blowouts w/ the Bulls winning by an average of 20 PPG. Things were a much closer last month in a 105-101 final. Orlando's big problem in the three matchups has been poor three-point shooting. They have gone an ugly 25 of 93 in the three games. That's an ugly 26.8% overall. While not the best three-point shooting team in the league, the Magic are at least making 35% of their attempts from behind the arc for the season. So I expect some pretty significant improvement in this department tonight. Chicago is allowing 37.1% shooting from three-point range for the year. Orlando was 11 of 31 in its last game.

We can't really trust the Magic to cover here as they're a woeful 1-9-1 ATS as a home favorite this season. Furthermore, they just lost here to Brooklyn Wednesday night, 111-104 (were 2.5-pt underdogs). Recent Magic opponents had NOT shot the ball well. But Brooklyn made 12 three-pointers and shot 46.0% from the field. Even still, the last five Orlando opponents are only shooting 43.4% overall. That's not normal as this is a bottom 10 team in defensive efficiency (Chicago is bottom five). So, again, don't be surprised if the Bulls score more than anticipated here. The Over is 22-15 in Bulls' road games this season. Before last night, they had allowed 110 or more points in nine straight games. 10* Over Bulls/Magic

10* Over Pacers/Kings (10:05 ET): Homecourt advantage for a first round playoff series is a very real possibility for the Pacers. They are currently fifth in the East, but only a half game back of (admittedly red hot) Philadelphia and a full game back of Cleveland. So finishing as high as third in the Eastern Conference is not out of the realm of possibility. No one expected this team to make the playoffs this season (myself included), so tip your cap no matter where the team finishes. Speaking of teams no one expected to make the playoffs this year, I bring to you the Kings. The difference between Indiana and Sacramento though is that the latter has "made good" on its prognostication. The Kings are simply one of the worst teams the league has to offer. 

It's been a tumultuous scene outside of the arena in Sacramento w/ large protests taking place over the killing of an unarmed civilian by police. The last two Kings' home games have been sparsely attended, not that there's any sort of huge demand to get in the building anyway. The team has lost both, failing to even score 100 pts either time. (I successfully played against them Tuesday vs. Dallas). As mentioned in the analysis for that game, the Kings are one of only two teams in the league currently not averaging 100 PPG. They've actually failed to hit triple digits in five of their last six games, though they've never been held below 90 pts. 

This is a pretty low total by 2018 NBA standards. In addition to Sacramento's anemic offense, another contributing factor to that has to be Indiana's 12-2 Under record this month. The Pacers' last game was a 92-81 final over injury-riddled Golden State. But something else to consider is that the Kings also rank 28th in defensive efficiency. It's been awhile since they've faced a team w/ any kind of potent offense and I expect Indiana to come in here tonight and score plenty of points. The first meeting between these teams took place all the way back on Halloween and the Kings made only two three-pointers and seven free throws! They'll certainly improve upon that tonight and they'll shoot better than they did Tuesday (40%) as well. Take the Over. 10* Over Pacers/Kings  

8* Dallas (10:35 ET): The Mavs came through for me last night, so why not come right back w/ them? They were badly mispriced (as underdogs!) last night in Sacramento and the same holds true tonight in LA where they are (predictably, but incorrectly) an even bigger dog. As I've been saying for awhile now, Dallas is a lot closer to the Lakers than they are to the rest of the bottom feeders in the Western Conference. What I mean by that is their YTD point differential as well as net efficiency rating more closely mirrors that of the 32-41 Lakers than it does the 24-51 Kings. Dallas has only been outscored by 2.5 PPG on the season, which is indicative of a 30-win team (actual record is 23-51). For the record, the Kings have the point differential of an 18-win team while the Lakers 32-41 on the season, have played "true to their record" being outscored by 1.6 PPG. So as you can see, Dallas really is a lot closer to the Lakers than they are the Kings. Take the points. 

It's not as if the Lakers are at full strength here either. Leading scorer Brandon Ingram has been out of the lineup the L13 games w/ a hip injury and is only listed as questionable to play tonight. Whether or not he does is irrelevant to the play as one would assume that even if he does play, he's likely to be rusty. Only nine players suited up for Saturday night's win over Memphis, the lone time the Lakers have come out victorious in the last six games. Remember though, that's Memphis (who stinks). The Lakers resumed their losing ways Monday in Detroit, falling 112-106, despite 7 of 8 shooting from rookie Lonzo Ball (finished w/ 15 pts). Ball had again been struggling w/ his shot previous to that. Coming back from a four-game trip w/ only one day of rest isn't exactly a great spot for Ball and the Lakers to get back on track. 

Dallas snapped its own five-game losing skid last night, but as I said in my analysis, they'd been a "tough out" despite the lack of success. Four of the five losses were by single digits and the fifth, which came by 10 pts, saw them lead for a good period of the game. Last night, they led by as many as 18 before the Kings mounted a relatively meaningless rally. The Mavs are 30-23 ATS as underdogs this season and the Lakers aren't favored that often (especially by this many). Take the points. 8* Dallas

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): I have no idea why this line would "jump the fence" (Brooklyn now favored) given how these two sides grade out rather evenly and the Magic are at home. Sure, the Nets have had the lead at the end of the first quarter in seven straight games. But they've won only two of them. Close losses (Nets have lost three straight, all by seven pts or less) do not justify a bad team being favored on the road, in my opinion. Especially the Nets, who have previously been favored on the road only two times all season. Orlando is off a win here, 105-99 over sorry Phoenix, and adequately rested (last played on Saturday). They should be the favorite here and I'll take 'em. 

The Magic had been struggling offensively prior to beating the Suns as they'd been held under 100 pts five times in a seven-game span. While it was by no means an "offensive explosion" Saturday night, they at least broke the century mark, and it would have been a lot more if not for a 12-point second quarter. That win snapped the Magic's own three-game slide. Now, I'm well aware that this team has produced only two win streaks since Thanksgiving! They won three in a row in early February, then B2B games earlier in March. But the line "flipping" certainly would appear to work to our benefit. Whereas the Magic are a money-burning 1-9-1 ATS as home chalk, they have a winning ATS record taking points here. Again, these teams grade out almost exactly even, meaning I'd have the Magic favored by at least 2.5 pts here. There's value. 

These teams have met three times this year and every game has been close (all decided by five points or less). Two of those games took place very early in the season (all the way back in October) and were high-scoring. The last meeting, on New Year's Day, was won by the Nets 98-95. The home team is 3-0 SU in the three meetings and key here is that Brooklyn has lost its last five visits to Orlando. When they came here back in October, they were 4.5-pt dogs. It's been a long time, but I don't see the justification for the adjustment in the line tonight. Another issue for the Nets is that they have allowed 110+ pts in 12 of their last 13 games. 10* Orlando 

8* Dallas (10:05 ET): Sacramento may be 1.5 games up on Dallas and a slight favorite here at home, but to me, the Mavs are clearly the better team in this battle of Western Conference also-rans. Only Phoenix can lay claim to having a worse point differential and net efficiency rating than Sacramento and those two are significantly worse than virtually every other team in the league in those departments. A 24-50 SU record clearly is not good, but for the Kings should be considered fortunate as they actually have the point differential of a 17-win team. Meanwhile, Dallas is being outscored by 4.5 PPG fewer than Sacramento and has the point differential of a 29-win team as opposed to a 22-win team (actual record is 22-51). Losers of five in a row, I see the Mavs picking up a win tonight. 

None of the five losses Dallas has recently suffered were of the blowout variety. Four were by single digits and the fifth was decided by 10 pts, a game that was very close most of the way (Mavs even led). Now the Mavs did let me down Saturday night w/ a 102-98 home loss to Charlotte. They had no answer for Dwight Howard (who finished w/ 23 pts and 18 rebounds) nor the Hornets' three-point shooting, which finished the game at 12 of 25. Fortunately for tonight, Howard doesn't wear a Kings uniform and Sacramento is shooting only 38.1% from distance. The Kings are one of only two teams in the league that doesn't average 100 PPG (Memphis) and defensively they are very bad as well (29th in efficiency). 

The Mavs have only eight road wins this year, but tonight marks just the 10th time all season that the Kings will be favored. They've been outscored in the previous nine. Now a 6-7 SU stretch actually qualifies as Sacramento's best 13-game run all season. But they just lost to a severely undermanned Boston side, 104-93, on Sunday. It was the fourth time in the last five games they failed to score 100 points. Dallas may or may not be a little banged up coming into this game, but Dennis Smith Jr is back in the lineup. Dirk Nowitzki is expected to play. Dallas is due for a victory while - to me - Sacramento is pretty clearly the second worst team in the league and due to lose. 8* Dallas 

10* Utah (7:00 ET): I'm a little surprised that Western Kentucky has been able to sum up the motivation here in the National Invitational Tournament. They were upset in the finals of their conference tournament (by Marshall), losing as six-point favorites. Now they were favored in the first NIT game, winning 79-62 vs. Boston College. But one might have expected it to end there. It obviously didn't though as they've upset USC and Oklahoma State, both on the road, to get here to MSG. They've now covered the spread comfortably in all three games, but here the line is a virtual non-factor (essentially a pick) against a Utah team that's desperately trying to salvage some dignity for the Pac 12 Conference. The Utes recorded an impressive upset of their own, beating St. Mary's, to get here. That was after home wins over Cal Davis and LSU. I'm taking the Utes to advance to Thursday's final. 

I had Utah in their second round win over LSU. Now homecourt advantage was a big reason for that, but still, homecourt alone wasn't enough to justify how decisive that win ended up being. The Utes won 95-71 as they led 30-11 after the 1st quarter (yes, we're playing quarters, not halves, in this year's NIT). They shot 58% from the field overall, made 14 three-pointers and all five starters scored in double figures. The game was never close as the Utes led by as many as 27 at one point. Impressive as that win was, going to St. Mary's and winning 67-58 may have been just as - if not more - impressive. Yes, the final score is a little misleading in the sense that the game did go into overtime. But look at how few points St. Mary's scored in 45 minutes of action. The Utes became the only team besides Gonzaga to win at SMU this season. The Gaels (previously 18-1 SU at home) were averaging close to 80 PPG at home for the season. 

Now, Utah's edge defensively won't be as pronounced here as it was each of the L3 games. Plus, they'll be facing a Western Kentucky team that has scored at least 79 pts in all three NIT games, including 92 in the upset of Oklahoma State in the quarterfinals. The Hilltoppers have shot 52.5% or better in all three NIT games as well, but I'll call for that number to drop - rather significantly - here as Utah is allowing its opponents to shoot just 41.7% from the floor for the season. Over the last five games, Utah opponents are shooting below 40% from the field. I realize WKU has the better record away from home, but note Utah is the only team left in the NIT field that was seeded higher than fourth (#2). I think this line is off and the Utes deserved to be favored here. 10* Utah

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): It's no longer a question of "trusting" the process, but rather how far can it take the Sixers this year (officially have clinched a playoff berth). This young team has made the proverbial "quantum leap" in 2018 and is now on the verge of breaking into the top five of my own personal power rankings. That's for the entire LEAGUE, mind you, not simply the Eastern Conference. Currently on a six-game win streak (2nd longest active streak in the league), the Sixers are percentage points ahead of Indiana for fourth place in the East, meaning they'd have the homecourt edge in a potential first round playoff series w/ the Pacers. They're at home tonight, facing a Denver team whose overall record isn't much different than Philly's, but in the tougher Western Conference, they're only ninth at this time. I'm going to lay the points here. 

If you're surprised the Sixers are favored by this many, well, don't be. This is a pretty strong home team (24-10 SU, outscoring visitors by 6.9 PPG) and also definitively better team than the Nuggets. That's reflected in both point differential and net efficiency rating. Both offensively and defensively, the Sixers' numbers improve noticeably at home. They're averaging about 1.5 PPG more here while giving up 2.4 PPG less (compared to overall season-long averages). Of the team's six straight victories, four have come here in Philly and the last three have all been by double digits. Overall, the team has won its last four games, all by double digits. They've scored at least 118 pts five times in this six-game streak. Rookie Ben Simmons has four triple doubles in the L7 games. Consider that they led Minnesota by 27 going into the 4Q on Saturday.

Denver finds itself smack dab in the middle of a seven-game road trip, which still has visits to both Toronto and Oklahoma City to come. After starting the trip w/ B2B losses (including an embarrassing one to lowly Memphis), the Nuggets have now won B2B games, first blowing out the Bulls, then beating Washington. Yet, they still trail 8th place Utah by 1.5 games. The Nuggets have not been a good road team this season, which is reflected w/ their 13-23 SU record away at home. They are also only 9-18 SU in games in which they are the underdog. Over the L2 seasons, the Sixers have been the best ATS team in the league, showing that the public & sportsbooks still aren't fully "caught on." Don't be afraid to lay this number Monday night! 10* Philadelphia

10* Oklahoma City (7:05 ET): After winning 13 in a row, Portland has suffered B2B losses. Both were at home to top teams, Houston and Boston, but the latter was missing key pieces (including Kyrie Irving), so that was a surprise. Losing that game outright marked the first game all month the Blazers did not cover (now 9-1 ATS). Tonight, the schedule is no less unkind as they must travel to OKC for an important Western Conference showdown. The Blazers are still third in the West, but the Thunder are now "hot on their heels" as they're 7-1 L8 and just a game back. At home, the oddsmakers obviously favor OKC and so do I. Lay the points.

Division games have not been kind to the Thunder this year, which is why they've spent the majority of the season not in first place in the Northwest (not like divisions even matter in the NBA), instead looking up at either Minnesota or Portland. They're just 5-9 SU and an ugly 2-12 ATS vs. the rest of the Northwest teams and that includes a 0-3 SU/ATS mark vs. Portland. Earlier this month, they lost up in the Pacific Northwest, 108-100 as 4.5-pt pups. That was hardly a good spot for the Thunder though as they were in the second night of a back to back, both on the road, while Portland came in w/ a day of rest. As touched on earlier though, OKC has gotten hot since then, winning seven of its last eight and the lone loss came on a buzzer-beater (to Boston). I expect a tremendous amount of importance to be placed on this game by the Thunder coaching staff and players. Going back to last season, they've actually lost to Portland five straight times.

Something to monitor here is the status of Portland's best player, Damian Lillard. There is a chance he may not play as his girlfriend is due to go into labor any time now. (The couple's son was due on Monday). A private jet is on standby for Lillard, so he could be out at a moment's notice. If Lillard were to miss this game, obviously that would make things easier for the Thunder. (Note: the line would obviously go up, but play is still valid). But with or without him, I expect Portland to lose tonight as we're starting to see them predictably regress a bit after the 13-game run, plus I have OKC rated as the better team anyway. 10* Oklahoma City 

10* Duke (5:05 ET): Compared to the wild "left-side" of the bracket, the right side has been downright "chalky." Almost every year, it seems as if we get one 1 vs. 2 (seed) matchup and this year it comes from the Midwest Region in the form of Kansas vs. Duke. However, it's rather interesting that the 2-seed comes in favored. Doesn't surprise me though as Duke has been the better team all year. They also have a drastically better defensive efficiency rating than Kansas, which for me, is the kicker here. If you've been following this incredible Tournament run of mine, then you know defensive efficiency is the key metric I've been harping on the whole time. I expected the Blue Devils to be favored in this spot and will lay the points.  

Duke is the only team in the field to be ranked top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, making them a great value pick to win the whole Tournament. It's rare that a Coach K team actually has value (public usually over the Dookies), but this year is the exception. I saw many brackets that had them failing to get by Michigan State in the Sweet 16. Well, they caught a "break" in that Sparty was upset in Rd 2, by Syracuse, a conference rival that Duke was familiar with, key because the zone is something they're accustomed to seeing. Of course, it's been much ballyhooed that the Blue Devils are also playing zone and the move has worked to perfection as the last 11 games have seen them allow an average of just 61.4 PPG. Only once during that stretch have they allowed over 70 and that was to rival UNC (who scored 74).

Kansas bettors have suffered back to back brutal beats. In the Round of 32 (vs. Seton Hall), a last-second "meaningless" three-pointer went in, putting the final score at 83-79 (Jayhawks were 4.5-pt favorites). Then, in the Sweet 16, they led Clemson by as many as 20 in the second half only to win (again) by only four points. They were favored by five to beat the Tigers. That's too bad b/c even as a dog I'm not about to endorse Bill Self's team considering they have the lowest defensive efficiency rating of any team in the Elite Eight (46th). Duke is 9th, a huge gap, not to mention also 2nd in the country in offensive efficiency. Self has had his issues in the Elite 8 before as his record is only 2-5 straight up, including a loss to Oregon (as a favorite) last year. Meanwhile, no coach has more Elite 8 appearances than Coach K (since Tournament field was expanded). Duke did lose to Kansas (by two) last season, even with the Jayhawks making only 2 of 17 three-point attempts. But KU still finished above 50% overall from the field, which won't happen here as I simply cannot stress how improved the Blue Devils have been on the defensive end this season. 10* Duke

8* Texas Tech (2:20 ET): Villanova is 3-0 ATS in this tournament, basically the lone exception of a top team playing above the oddsmakers' expectations. In the second round, I stepped out against them once and paid the price for doing so as they whipped Alabama 81-58 as an 811.5-pt favorite. (Note: I haven't lost a Tournament play since!). That came after an easy win against overmatched Radford (who was playing for a second time in three days), 87-61 as 22.5-pt chalk and before a Sweet 16 win over West Virginia, 90-78 as 5.5-pt chalk. But now comes - easily - their toughest test of the Tournament in the form of Texas Tech. This will be the best defensive team the Wildcats will have seen all season, so you know what that means ... take the points. 

Texas Tech was a nice winner for me in the Sweet 16 as they "upset" Purdue (were 1.5-pt dogs) 78-65. All tournament long, I've been harping on teams' defensive efficiency rating and it's obviously treated me quite well. In this department, the Red Raiders now rank 3rd nationally. They moved ahead of Michigan thanks to the performance against Purdue. That means the Red Raiders are now - at least temporarily - the top defensive team left in the field. Purdue isn't held under 70 pts often (finished 0-5 when it happens), but Chris Beard's team was able to do it. Sure, you can cite the Boilermakers not having leading scorer Isaac Haas, but I don't think he alone could have changed Friday night's result. Texas Tech is holding opponents to 64.6 PPG on 40.4% shooting for the season.

The Red Raiders also have Keenan Evans. In my analysis for the Purdue game, I mentioned that a late season Evans' injury was the reason for a Texas Tech swoon. He was not at full strength for four games and the team lost all four. But now, Evans is back and playing at an All-American level. He had only 16 pts vs. Purdue (still a team-high), but is averaging over 20 PPG for the Tourney. Usually, Villanova's Jalen Brunson is the best guard on the floor, but that may not be the case here. Not sure I understand how Texas Tech comes in as a bigger underdog here than WVU did for the Sweet 16. Going back to that Alabama game, 'Nova was held below 40% shooting by a top 20 defense. Texas Tech is top four. Note that the underdog here has only one loss all season by more than 10 points. 8* Texas Tech

8* Michigan (8:45 ET): The third seeded Wolverines have caught numerous breaks during the course of this Tournament run. Poor shooting nearly cost them in each of the first two rounds, but they were able to overcome a slow start vs. overmatched Montana and then of course hit the buzzer beater to get by Houston. I thought the Maize and Blue came in drastically undervalued in their Sweet 16 matchup w/ Texas A&M, thus I jumped on them and boy was I richly rewarded as they absolutely thrashed the Aggies, 99-72, thanks to a spectacular shooting display (61.9 FG% overall), most notably from three-point range where they went 14 of 24. Before the Tournament started, I had Michigan making the Final Four and thanks to a far more favorable Elite 8 matchup than I envisioned, I'm sticking w/ that. Lay the points. 

Now, if you're a regular client of mine, you may recall that I had A&M in the Rd of 32 against North Carolina. One of the major reasons I then chose to fade the Aggies was that I didn't think there was any way they could come close to matching that performance against Michigan. So why am I not taking a similar tact w/ the Wolverines after Thursday night's incredible showing? Well, for starters, how about their defense. They are the top team left in the field when it comes to defensive efficiency (my key metric!) at #3 in the country. I'm confident in what I've seen from them defensively in this Tournament can/will be maintained here, thus negating any potential offensive regression from the Sweet 16. Then, there's the Elite 8 opponent. I had expected Gonzaga to be here (even before the Tournament started), which would have meant a significant disadvantage in fan support for the Wolverines. Instead, it's a Florida State team that doesn't play defense as well as Gonzaga or certainly Michigan. 

Now we should give some credit to the Seminoles. They came into this Tournament likely undervalued due to an 0-7-1 ATS run. But they dominated Missouri and have pulled B2B upsets of Xavier and Gonzaga. I had them against top seeded Xavier, but that was a top seed in name-only. In fact, I would have had any of the other top four seeds in this region (UNC, Michigan, Gonzaga) favored against the Musketeers. Nor do I think Florida State is as good as the last two teams Michigan has beaten, Houston and Texas A&M. This really is a dream draw for the Elite 8 for Michigan, who will certainly shoot better against the Seminoles than either Missouri or Gonzaga did. Of the 12 remaining teams in the Tournament, Florida State is 11th in defensive efficiency. Again, Michigan is #1. 8* Michigan

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): One could (and I will!) argue that both of these squads are deserving of better fates in 2018. But it was not to be for either Charlotte or Dallas due to a variety of reasons. The Hornets can't win a close game to save their lives (1-14 SU L2 yrs in games decided by three pts or less) nor can they stay healthy. Having Michael Jordan construct your roster isn't exactly a good idea either. As for Dallas, they dug themselves a huge early season hole and off-the-court drama has engulfed the franchise since the All-Star Break. But I've said it before and will reiterate it here yet again. Of the league's "bottom feeders," the Mavs are clearly the strongest team, confirmed by a point differential that is closer to the 31-win Lakers (who are nine games ahead) than the 24-win Kings (who are two games up). Maybe that's "damning w/ faint praise," but I'm taking the Mavs tonight. 

Now I also took Dallas in their last game, a 119-112 home loss to the Jazz. But that ended up being a "backdoor cover" for me (Mavs were +8!) thanks to a late flurry. They were able to outscore Utah 31-23 in the fourth quarter and made two late free throws to "steal" the cover. As fortunate as that may seem, the Mavs' luck was non-existent the game before as they never trailed New Orleans by more than six points until the final two minutes. They lost that game by 10, as eight-point dogs. So perhaps Thursday was just the Mavs "turn" to be lucky. Regardless, I believe tonight is their night to break through into the win column after four straight single digit losses. 

I was a little surprised this spread wasn't a little higher considering Charlotte is off a franchise-record 61-point win. Yes, you read that correctly. In a season full of disappointment, Thursday's 140-79 triumph over heinous Memphis will undoubtedly end up as the highlight. But it also works against them tonight. Memphis barely qualifies as a NBA team these days and there's nowhere for the Hornets' performance to go but down tonight. Charlotte isn't a good road team (12-24 SU) to begin with, so them being the favorite here is a dicey proposition. Plus, Dallas already won in Charlotte earlier in the year, 115-111. The Hornets don't put win streaks together very often (they come into tonight having won two straight) and having Dwight Howard back (was suspended for Memphis game) may actually be a negative. 10* Dallas

8* Detroit (7:05 ET): Typically, I shy away from laying this many points, even if it's the best of teams in the favorite role. So doing so w/ the Pistons might seem, on the surface, to be a bit risky. But never fear as they welcome in the sorry Bulls (who are playing the second of a back to back, and the third game in four nights). Detroit isn't dead yet when it comes to playoffs, though they currently trail eighth place Milwaukee by six games w/ just 10 to play. Thus the margin for error is slim. I see them blowing out the Bulls Saturday night in the Motor City. 

Chicago lost last night (of course they did!), to Milwaukee, so that did Detroit no favors. Even after being spotted a 10-pt lead after the 1st quarter, the Bulls still couldn't cover the spread as a home dog. They were held to just 44 pts in the second half and lost 118-105 as 5-pt pups. In case you hadn't noticed, the Bulls are a very bad team. They have the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference (been the case most of the year) and have lost four in a row, the last three all coming by double digits. This will also be their fifth game in the last eight days, so the situation is REALLY unfavorable for them, especially out on the road where they've only won nine times all season. They have won four times in March, but two of those were against the heinous Grizzlies. The other two were against Atlanta and Dallas.

The last time these teams played was earlier this month and the Pistons won by 16 here at home. They held Chicago to just 83 pts on 35.5% shooting. I see little reason why this one will turn out any differently. After a dreadful ATS stretch, Detroit has covered six of its last eight games. Yes, this is their first time playing back at home after a six-game West Coast swing. But the Bulls are the "gift that keeps on giving." They will be w/o their entire starting backcourt here as both Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine have been ruled out. Meanwhile, the Pistons have PG Reggie Jackson back and have played much better since his return. Blake Griffin also continues to play well as he's averaging 23.9-6.5-6.8 the L10 games. Since Jackson's return, the Pistons have won twice (both by double digits) and taken Houston into overtime. Lay the points. 8* Detroit

10* Kansas State (6:05 ET): Perhaps it has something to do w/ their #1 fan Sister Jean, but Loyola Chicago has gotten to the Elite 8 by winning their three games by a total of four points. That's pretty remarkable. I've been on the winning end of two of those games, the Rd 1 win over Miami and the Sweet 16 victory over Nevada. Similarly, I was on Kansas State in the Sweet 16 and they rewarded me w/ a huge win, beating favored Kentucky 61-58. Now both teams were more dominant than their respective Sweet 16 scores show as they each led virtually throughout. Now we are left w/ an unprecedented 9 vs. 11 (seed) matchup in the Elite 8. As has been the case throughout this Tournament, I'll side w/ the team that has the better defensive efficiency rating, especially considering the price here. 

Kansas State beat Kentucky despite shooting only 35% from the field. They were -15 in free throw attempts (a disadvantage somewhat negated by Kentucky making on 23 of 37) and were outrebounded 38-29. Yet, they still be a superior team and basically led throughout. This is owed to defense, which I can't harp on enough in this Tournament. They held UK to 38.1% shooting including 3 of 12 from three-point range. Kentucky is certainly a better team than Loyola Chicago or any team the Ramblers have beaten to this point. Yes, there was a little "divine intervention" for K-State in this Tourney as they became the first team in history to get to face a 16-seed (UMBC) in the 2nd round. But there was nothing fluky about the win over Kentucky, nor the 1st round win over Creighton for that matter. The Wildcats have yet to allow 60 pts in any game this Tournament and are now ranked #14 in the country in defensive efficiency. Remember they've done this despite basically getting zero contribution from leading scorer Dean Wade!  

I had a lot of respect for Loyola coming into this Big Dance, hence me playing them twice so far. But they got a fortunate Sweet 16 draw w/ Nevada, a team that had trailed at halftime in each of its previous five games, including three by double digits. After a slow start vs. the Wolfpack (initially trailed 20-8), the Ramblers took their own 2H double digit lead. Things then got close at the end (always does w/ Nevada!) despite the Ramblers shooting 55% for the game and making their first 12 field goal attempts after halftime. It was their second straight game shooting at least 50%, something that I don't see happening here given KSU's defensive prowess. Sister Jean or not, Loyola is very lucky to have advanced thus far (three wins by four total points!) while Kansas State has largely been in control of all three of its tourney contests thus far. 10* Kansas State

8* Texas Tech (9:57 ET): I have yet to play on/against either of these teams in the NCAA Tournament. Texas Tech has faced two tough defensive-minded teams thus far, Stephen F Austin and Florida and beat back both. Purdue was a somewhat popular choice to be upset in the last round as they had lost their best player, Isaac Haas, to injury in the 1st round win of CS Fullerton. But the Boilermakers played well w/o Haas and ousted pesky Butler, 76-73 (did not cover as they were favored by four). Oddsmakers are still adjusting in light of the Haas injury, but not by enough here in my estimation. Texas Tech is the significantly better defensive team in this matchup (#4 in efficiency vs. Purdue's #29) and has its best player (Keenan Evans) as close to full strength as he's been in a while. I like the Red Raiders. 

Evans has led the way for TT, averaging 22.5 PPG in the Tournament. Coming into the Big Dance, the Red Raiders had gone just 2-5 SU in their L7 games w/ virtually every game being close. Both wins were by four points and three losses were by three points or less. The key is that Evans clearly was not at full strength in four of those games due to a toe injury and the team went 0-4 SU. The one game he missed the entirety of was at West Virginia and coincidentally, that was the worst loss of the bunch. But now Evans is back to looking like an All-American and coupled w/ the Red Raiders' outstanding defense, that means trouble for Purdue. Texas Tech forced nine first half turnovers vs. SFA and contested all but two of Florida's three-point attempts.

Purdue being w/o Haas is a major loss. I thought it was being overrated vs. Butler, but Texas Tech is a tougher opponent and the Boilermakers will absolutely miss him here. Don't look for them to shoot 50% from the field here like they did vs. Butler or 11 of 24 from three-point range. Take Carsen Edwards out of the equation and the rest of the team was 22 of 35 from the field overall and 8 of 14 from three-point range. Unsustainable! With no Haas and a supporting cast likely to regress facing a team that is holding opponents to 40.3% shooting for the year, look for the Boilermakers to have a rough offensive night in the Sweet 16. 8* Texas Tech

8* Over Heat/Thunder (8:05 ET): This is an important game for both teams, who are each fighting to strengthen their playoff position in the two respective conferences. Miami comes in at 7th in the East, having won three straight. One of those wins (over the Lakers) was by a single point and another in double OT (vs. Denver). So it's hardly been a dominant stretch of basketball, though they did beat the Knicks by 21 on Wednesday (but that was at home). Oklahoma City is currently tied for 4th (w/ New Orleans) in the far tougher West, so earning homecourt advantage for a 1st rd playoff series is the goal here. But while the Thunder are only two games back of third place Portland, they're actualy closer to being the 8-seed (only 1.5 games difference). So a loss for them here could prove deadly. 

I think the pointspread is just right here, so I'm not making a play on that. Instead, let's look at the total. Miami's recent averages are obviously skewed by the double overtime game vs. Denver. But, two other times in the L5 games, they have scored 119 pts in regulation. They've shot 55% from the floor in the last two games - combined. While it's a "tough ask" to call for such a percentage yet again, Oklahoma City hasn't exactly been defending well recently. Over their last five games, the Thunder are giving up an average of 109.2 PPG. Now that number is a little skewed by a 132-125 win in Toronto last weekend, but this is a team that has given up 100+ pts in 13 of its last 16 games. 

Of course, OKC can score w/ the best of them as well. They did not shoot the ball well in a disappointing one-point loss to short-handed Boston on Tuesday (just 41.2 FG%). But keep in mind that the Celtics are also the best defensive team in the league. I fully anticipate some sort of "offensive bounce-back" from the Thunder tonight, especially playing at home where they average 108.0 PPG. At Toronto, they shot better than 55% from the floor. A huge factor for the Thunder as of late has been the arrival of Corey Brewer, who has come in and shot 38.2% from three-point range since signing (7 games). Miami is going to be w/o its best defender in this game (Hassan Whiteside) and has struggled to beat the top teams in the Western Conference this year. Though the last seven meetings between these teams have all gone Under, I see a different result taking place tonight. 8* Over Heat/Thunder

10* New York (7:35 ET): Minnesota has taken a bit of a tumble down the Western Conference standings, though it's really no fault of their own. It seems as if every other playoff contender has ripped off some sort of huge win streak over the last month, thus the likes of Portland and New Orleans have passed them and Utah is currently tied w/ them for seventh. There is also the Jimmy Butler injury, which you knew would take its toll. Since losing their best player, the T'wolves have gone just 5-5 straight up. This recent "decline" is a little interesting to me as - before the season - I predicted Minny would finish below their projected season win total of 48.5. So it seems the market has taken hold here. Without Butler, this seems like too many points to lay, even if it's the Knicks that they are playing. Take the points. 

The Knicks' fate was essentially sealed when they lost their best player, Kristaps Porzingis, to injury. The big difference between them losing Porzingis and Minnesota losing Butler is that NY knew Porizingis was done for the year and they've, well, acted accordingly. They have just three wins in their last 28 games, though two of them have come in the last seven days and both were at home. They beat Charlotte 124-101 as six-point dogs, then Chicago 110-92 as a five-point favorite on Friday and Sunday respectively. Their losing ways then resumed w/ a 21-point loss at Miami (as 9.5-pt dogs) on Wednesday. 

As bad as the Knicks have been since Porzingis went down, they have remained competitive at home where their record is still above .500. As I just mentioned, they've won their last two games here at MSG. Minnesota, even w/ Butler in the lineup, is a shaky road team at 14-22 SU overall and rarely are they favored by this many. The last time they were asked to lay a similar number away from home was Feb 9 at Chicago and they lost the game outright. This is only the third time they've been favored, period, since Butler went down. Once was against Sacramento and the other was Tuesday vs. the Clippers. They did win both, but Tuesday's game was at home and a lot closer than the final score indicated. A big reason I don't trust this T'wolves team to win a playoff series is they rank 26th in defensive efficiency. Tuesday was their highest scoring game since January and given the poor defense, I don't see them scoring enough tonight to cover the lofty spread away from home. 10* New York

10* Clemson (7:07 ET): This is our latest example of an underdog having a significantly higher defensive efficiency rating than its favored counterpart. Taking the points in these situations has proven fruitful for me in this Tournament, most notably last Sunday where Texas A&M, Clemson and Florida State all won their games outright. Two #1 seeds didn't even make it to the Sweet 16, including the #1 team overall, Virginia. Of the four 1-seeds, I had Kansas rated third coming in and they are definitely more vulnerable compared to the other still remaining, that being Villanova. Clemson is up to #7 in the country in defensive efficiency (Kansas only #45) after their absolute thrashing (won 84-53!) of Auburn in the Rd of 32. I'll take the points here.

The "no respect" card is nothing new to these Tigers, who came into the Tournament w/o Dante Grantham. Much was made of their pedestrian record since the injury, but as I said in my analysis of the Auburn game, "perhaps that had more to do w/ the rugged ACC and less w/ the Tigers themselves." As expected, they overwhelmed Auburn w/ their defense, holding them to 53 points on a palty 25.8% shooting. It was a 43-19 game at halftime! But the thing w/ Clemson is they're not just defense. They put up 84 pts on Auburn and that was after shooting better than 55% in Rd. 1 against a New Mexico State team that was ranked inside the top 20 in defensive efficiency. Something else I noted in the analysis for the Auburn game is that Clemson has really feasted on non-conference competition this year. They're now 13-1 SU (9-2 ATS) and have shot 55% or better four times. They are 46 for 80 on two-point attempts in this Tournament. 

Kansas suffered a brutal beat in its Rd of 32 game vs. Seton Hall. They gave up a three-pointer w/ no time remaining, which allowed the Pirates to get inside the number. Normally, I might then consider a reprieve the next time out, but I don't like this matchup for the Jayhawks - at all. With a less than 100% Udoka Azubuike, they are quite vulnerable on the inside as we saw when Seton Hall's Angel Delgado turned in a 24-23 (pts-rebounds) performance. HC Bill Self wants to play a four-guard lineup, but I don't think that works here. The Jayhawks are shooting 40% from three-point range this season, but good luck getting to that number here. The likelihood of an upset here is high. 10* Clemson

8* Kansas State (9:37 ET): Well, the deck certainly appears cleared for Kentucky to make another Final Four run, doesn't it? If the Wildcats were to make it to San Antonio, the highest seeded opponent they will have beaten is a 7, and that's only if Nevada wins its Sweet 16 game vs. #11 Loyola Chicago. Already it's been a fairly "easy" ride to the Sweet 16. After getting by pesky 12-seed Davidson in the Rd of 64, UK got to face 13-seed Buffalo (who had upset #4 seed Arizona) in the Rd of 32. The Wildcats were my 10* Game of the Week selection in that one and they rolled the underdog Bulls, 95-75, as an almost outrageously priced 5.5-pt favorite. Here's where I take advantage of public perception though and grab some value. This battle w/ Kansas State is a lot more even than people think. Not saying the Wildcats win this one outright, but I will take the points. 

Now Kansas State was another beneficiary of a big upset to get here. In their case, they were the 1st team to take on a 16-seed in the Rd of 32. That was thanks to UMBC's historical upset of overall top seed Virginia. It was a very ugly affair w/ UMBC, who the players couldn't possibly have been ready to play. KSU won 50-43 by holding UMBC to 29.8% shooting for the game. They led at halftime despite going 0 for 8 on three-point attempts and being w/o leading scorer Dean Wade (who could come off the bench in this game). The Wildcats were also w/o Wade when they beat Creighton in Round 1, 69-59. Incredibly, Creighton and UMBC were held to a combined 32.1%. Tough to lose when you're playing defense like that. 

Statistically, these teams are a lot more even than you might think. Kansas State is slightly ahead in defensive efficiency and we've seen that be huge for underdogs thus far in this tournament (see A&M over UNC). Plus, the line here is basically the same as it was for Kentucky-Buffalo. Now obviously, there's some influence based on what the Wildcats did in that last game, to a team that had just beaten Arizona by 21 pts. But let's not be too quick to forget that Kentucky finished 6th in the SEC in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They have shot 50% or better in four consecutive games, but I do not see that happening here as this game will be a struggle. At 9-1 ATS L10 and heavily favored to get to the Final Four (wasn't the case last week), UK is overvalued. 8* Kansas State

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): Utah suffered a shocking home defeat Tuesday, losing outright (as 13-pt favorites!) to lowly Atlanta, 99-94. It was only the fourth loss for the Jazz in the last 25 games, but perhaps a costly one as it dropped them to a precarious eighth place in the Western Conference standings. Incredibly, two of those four losses have come against the Hawks! Tonight, Utah finds itself heavily favored again, but this time on the road. And same as the Atlanta game, they'll be facing a team on a losing streak. Dallas has dropped three in a row, continuing what has been arguably the worst season since the beginning of the Mark Cuban era. But I've also been rather adamant that this team is NOT the bottom-feeder it might appear to be on paper. I'm taking the points in this matchup. 

Dallas enters this game at 22-49 SU overall and right in the middle of the bottom four in the Western Conference. However, and this might be a case of "damning w/ faint praise," I consider the Mavs to - easily - be the best among the four teams in that quartet. They have a vastly superior point differential compared to Memphis, Sacramento and Phoenix. In fact, the Mavs are only being outscored by 2.5 points per game this year, making them really "appetizing" in this price range. They are a solid 28-22 ATS this season as an underdog, even after suffering a brutal beat Tuesday night in New Orleans. Taking nine points, the Mavs never trailed by more than eight until the final two minutes of the game. They lost by 10. That's really tough, especially when you consider they led the Pelicans by as many as 13 at one point in the game.

Utah has been a losing proposition on the road this year w/ a 16-19 SU record. The fact they were able to go on such a run and still are only 8th in the West is really tough. Now I still expect them to make the playoffs, but upward mobility is going to be tough as you have to think they'll start plateauing. When these teams met last month in Salt Lake City, the Jazz won by only seven and that was as a 10-pt favorite. Clearly, there's been a big shift from the oddsmakers for this rematch and it's something we can take advantage of. This is too many points to lay for a Jazz team that hasn't had to play many road games over the last month. 10* Dallas

8* Michigan (7:27 ET): Texas A&M has treated me incredibly well in this Tournament as I've cashed in on both of their games. First was a spot as a small favorite against a Providence team I simply didn't have a ton of respect for. After a slow start to that game, the Aggies roared back by controlling the boards and playing suffocating defense (won 73-69). It was a similar story in Rd 2 when I took them plus 6.5 points against North Carolina, a game they trailed early, but then quickly took control of and never looked back. In fact, this was a much bigger beatdown as they were up 14 at half and kept pouring it on after that, leading by 20+ for most of the second half. This is an athletic team that dominated their first two opponents on the inside, just like I thought they would. Problem is, I feel they'll meet their match in Michigan. Lay the points. 

The set up here is eerily reminiscent of that Providence-A&M matchup I spoke of at the outstet. Only this time the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot." Whereas A&M was the short favorite lacking in respect vs. Providence, here we have a situation where the majority of bettors are ON them as a short dog. Yes, they still have their "fearsome twosome" of Davis and Williams, who combined to go 10 for 12 from the floor against UNC. But what Michigan has that UNC didn't is outside shooters. The Tar Heels basically shot themselves out of that second round matchup, going 6 for 31 from three-point range. Trust me when I say that we won't be seeing that poor shooting here from the Wolverines. They shoot better than 36% for the year from 3-pt range. 

Remember; Michigan hasn't lost since February 6th. They bring an 11-game win streak into the Sweet 16 and it's actually been less about their shooters and more about defense. Did you know the Wolverines rank 3rd in the country in defensive efficiency? Only twice during the current win streak have they allowed more than 66 pts. They've held the last five opponents to 59.6 PPG on 38.6% shooting. Yes, it took a last second miracle to beat Houston in the Rd of 32. But let me let you in on a little secret - Houston is better than Texas A&M. Michigan hasn't even got much yet from leading scorer Moritz Wagner (just 17 pts in two games) in this tournament. No way A&M plays as well here as they did vs. North Carolina. Michigan is being underappreciated in this spot. 8* Michigan 

10* Loyola Chicago (7:07 ET): One of the most unlikely Sweet 16 matchups in recent memory (or ever?) takes place Thursday night in Atlanta as 7-seed Nevada meets 11-seed Loyola Chicago. As you might expect, it has not been a dominant path here for either side. Loyola, champions of the Missouri Valley, have won both games by two points or less (by nearly identical scores) and needed last second shots each time. Nevada, an at-large team that won the Mt West reg season crown (upset in conf tourney), has taken an even dicier path. They've trailed by double digits in the second half of both games - including down 22 to Cincinnati on Sunday. By rule, one of these teams is actually going to end up in the Elite 8 and I'm going to side w/ the one that has the clear edge in defensive efficiency, the metric I've been harping on all tournament long.

Defensive efficiency is the metric I leaned on heavily when it came to key second round calls such as Clemson over Auburn, Florida State over Xavier and Texas A&M over North Carolina. Now, going by that standard, Nevada should have been eliminated back in the Rd of 64. They've beaten Texas (#12 in def efficiency) and Cincinnati (#2). I laid off the Nevada-Cincinnati game though (spread too high) and it's obviously a good thing I did. But it bears mentioning that the Wolfpack - by a wide margin - have the lowest defensive efficiency rating of any team still left in the Tournament, They are 109th in that department. The next worst team is Florida State at #55. Six of the Sweet 16 teams are top 10 in defensive efficiency and 12 are in the top 30. Loyola Chicago, for the record, is 27th. In the regular season, they held opponents to 33.2% shooting from three-point range and turned them over only roughly 20% of all possessions. 

The Ramblers come into the Sweet 16 having won 19 of 20 games (only loss was by 2 at Bradley). I played them against Miami in the Rd of 64 and remember what I said in my analysis. This team beat Florida earlier in the year. They're not all defense either. They also rank third in the country in field goal percentage made (50.6%). They've also connected on 39% of their three-point attempts in this Tournament. Yes, both wins were close, but they never trailed in the manner Nevada did in both of its games. The Wolfpack looked like an inferior side against Texas (needed OT) and Cincy before miracle comebacks. Trailing by double digits in B2B games is not a sign of an Elite 8 team. 10* Loyola Chicago

10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): It seems as if the top eight teams in the Eastern Conference are set. But, I wouldn't feel too comfortable quite yet if I was Milwaukee. The Bucks do have a 5.5 game cushion over Detroit for the 8th and final playoff spot, but this is a team that has been outscored over the course of the season and has been somewhat of a disaster at the betting window of late. They're just 2-10 ATS the L12 games and I played against them Monday as a short road dog in Cleveland (they lost 124-117). Tonight, they are back home, hosting a team in a similar position. The Clippers are also 37-33 SU (same record as Bucks), but by virtue of playing in the Western Conference, they're by no means guaranteed a playoff spot (currently in 10th place). As I'll get into in a bit, the schedule is unkind to LA here. Lay the points. 

The Clips missed a chance to make up some ground in the playoff chase last night as they lost 123-109 in Minnesota. That was their fourth straight loss, all of them coming to teams in the Western Conference's top eight. The last three games have seen them allow an average of 122 PPG. HC Doc Rivers called last night's effort "the most disappointing of the season" and even removed all of his starters w/ 7:22 left in the game. Really, considering an 8-15 start to the season and the fact they dealt Blake Griffin, it's pretty shocking that the Clippers are still even in playoff contention. (Not to mention, all the injuries they have sustained). But it appears as if the "end may be near" as five of the next six games are on the road (not even counting last night). Nine of the last 12 games are also against teams fighting for a playoff spot. This is not only the second game of a back to back, but the Clippers' third game in four nights and fifth in the last seven.

Meanwhile, this will only be the Bucks' third game in the last seven days, so that's a pretty clear edge. Plus they are at home where their record for the season is 22-14 SU. Injuries at the point guard position have hurt the Bucks - literally and figuratively - over the last month, but Brandon Jennings (now working on a second 10-day contract) has begun to fill in nicely. This one ultimately boils down to the schedule though as the Clippers are just 3-9 SU playing w/o rest this season. 10* Milwaukee

8* Cleveland (7:05 ET): This is a huge game for the Cavaliers, who have a chance to beat the top team in the East. Yes, there's the issue that they're still short-handed, but as long as LeBron James is out there, they have a chance to win any game. Plus, Kevin Love did return Monday when the team beat the Bucks 124-117 here at home. I can then look past some "supporting pieces" being out as the schedule is unkind to Toronto here. They are playing in the second game of a back to back (beat Orlando 93-86 last night, on the road) and their fifth game in the last seven nights. That can really take its toll on a team, even one that has won 12 of its last 13 games. This is a predictable spot for them to "slip up." Take Cleveland.

The Cavs will definitely be w/o Kyle Korver, who is back w/ his family after his brother suddenly passed away (my condolences). Tristan Thompson, Larry Nance Jr and Rodney Hood are also all listed as questionable. Of those three, Nance is the least likely to play. It's sounding like there is a chance we could see either Thompson or Hood. We will see James, who is coming off a monster game Monday night where he went for 40-12-10 while making 16 of 29 field goal attempts. He is averaging a triple double over the L18 games. Love scored 18 pts in his return and it certainly didn't appear the Cavs missed HC Tye Lue, who remains out w/ an illness. This is a huge revenge game for Cleveland, who was dealt its worst loss of the season by the Raptors, back on January 11th - up in Toronto - 133-99 as 2.5-pt favorites. As you can tell, there's been a huge shift by the oddsmakers since that time. 

Toronto seems well on its way to earning homecourt advantage in the Eastern Conference (five-game lead over Boston, 11.5 game lead over Cleveland). They have pretty clearly been the best team in the East all season long, which is confirmed by a point differential (+8.6 per game) that is a full point better than Golden State. But this game is on the road, not at home where they are 29-6 SU this season. Furthermore, as alluded to earlier, the schedule is not kind to them for this national TV showdown. Orlando to Cleveland is a worse back to back than normal and this will be a third game in four nights as well as fifth in seven. Leading scorer DeMar DeRozan has been battling a thigh bruise (sat out last night) and is not 100%. Revenge, the schedule and desperation add up to the Cavaliers being a great play tonight on ESPN. 8* Cleveland

8* Louisville (9:00 ET): You can't underestimate the importance of homecourt advantage in the NIT. Last night, I rode w/ Utah, who demolished LSU in Salt Lake City. That being said, three of the top four seeds in this tournament are OUT, one of them Baylor at the hands of Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are back in action tonight, again on the road, in quarterfinal action at Louisville. Needless to say, this has been quite the tumultuous season on the L'ville campus, starting w/ Rick Pitino resigning in disgrace. But the Cardinals' players can still salvage some semblance of pride by winning the NIT and I have them advancing to the Final Four next week in MSG w/ a comfortable win tonight. Lay the points. 

Louisville, the #2 seed in Region 2, has won both of its NIT games by double digits. Their first victim was Northern Kentucky (reg season champs out of the Horizon League), 66-58 as 7.5-pt chalk. Then came an 84-68 win over Middle Tennessee (reg season champs in C-USA) as 4.5-pt chalk. Now you can make the arguement that both of those teams were battling some disappointment over getting bounced from their respective conference tourneys. But Middle Tennessee did win still win its first NIT game and I might argue that they are a better team that Mississippi State is. Something to note is Louisville easily beat Middle Tennessee despite leading scorer Deng Adel not scoring a single point - with just one shot attempt - in 21 minutes of action. The team still went on to make 11 three-pointers. 

Mississippi State beat Baylor on a last second three-pointer Sunday, after blowing all of a 14-pt halftime advantage. Three-point shooting was the real difference in that game as the Bulldogs went 13 of 22 from behind the arc while the Bears were a paltry 3 of 12. Remember though; the three-point line has been extended for NIT play (experimentation!). I'd be a little leery of MSU being able to outshoot a second straight opponent so decisively again, especially in another road game. That win over Baylor was only the third "true" road win of the season for the Bulldogs. Thus I can't see them turning the same trick twice in a three-day span. Furthermore, Louisville has covered five of its last six as a home favorite of -3.5 to -6. 8* Louisville

10* Under Clippers/T'wolves (8:05 ET): All of a sudden, this has become somewhat of a "do or die" type game in the Western Conference playoff picture. It wasn't that long ago that Minnesota making the playoffs was considered a mere formality, but it seems as if everyone else (particularly Portland and Utah) have gotten hot at the right time and that has coincided w/ a dip from the T'wolves, who are still w/o their best player, Jimmy Butler. (Butler's absence completely coincides w/ the dip). They now find themselves in 8th place in the West, only two games in front of the 9th place Clippers. So a lot is on the line here and I expect a more "playoff-like" intensity here, meaning better defense and less scoring. Take the Under. 

I fell for the Clippers on Sunday night as they were actually favored against the red-hot Blazers. That was a mistake as LA was outclassed at home and would lose by a score of 122-109. It was the team's third loss in a row, although the teams that beat them were: Houston, OKC and Portland, not exactly an easy group of teams to walk away w/ a win against. The Clips have now given up 120+ pts in B2B games and have to face a top 5 team in offensive efficiency. But Minnesota has been a little limited on that end w/o Butler, even though they did just score 120 in their own loss to Houston on Sunday (here at home). 

So the Clippers have gone Over in B2B games and Minnesota three straight. These two teams have met three times before this season and all three games have gone Over the total. But tonight's O/U line is - by far - the highest to date. The last meeting took place back in January and saw the Clippers (were at home) shoot a blistering 56 percent from the field. They still lost, mind you, 126-118 as the T'wolves attempted 39 free throws and made 33. I expect all of these numbers to come down tonight. Plus, Andrew Wiggins and Jeff Teague combined for 70 pts for Minnesota in that last meeting. That's unlikely to happen again either. This is a pretty high O/U line from both teams perspective as neither's games average anywhere close to what the oddsmakers' number is currently set at. 10* Under Clippers/T'wolves

10* Detroit (10:05 ET): The Pistons are rapidly running out of time to make any late charge for the playoffs. With only 13 games to play, they trail 8th place Miami by 6.5 games, so the likelihood of them making it is really somewhere between "slim" and "none." It wasn't supposed to be this way, however. Not after the team went "all in" on a mid-season trade to bring in Blake Griffin. Shockingly, that is when things turned South. Now, it's not fair to place all the blame on Griffin as the injury to PG Reggie Jackson was the real killer here. But still, this team has failed terribly in the oddsmakers' eyes, going a miserable 6-20 ATS its last 26 games after a 13-point loss at Portland Saturday night. Fortunately though, tonight they'll be running into one of the worst teams in the league. I'll lay a short number, even on the road.

Give Sacramento some credit as they have gone 8-2 ATS the L10 games, even winning five of them straight up. They're probably out of the discussion for "worst team in the league" - at least for the time being - as Phoenix and Memphis are both playing so unfathomably bad right now that the dubious dishonor couldn't go to anyone else. It should be pointed out though that all five of the Kings' recent victories have been by six points or less. They still sport the league's second worst YTD point differential (ahead of only Phoenix). Saturday night they fell 103-97 in Utah, closer than expected yes, as it was the Kings' fifth game in the last seven days. They were fortunate in that the spread was huge, but that's not the case here against a team desperate for a win that won't be "taking the night off." 

Detroit won by exactly nine, 108-99, over Sacramento in the first meeting of the year. They were nine-point home favorites. Now the Pistons have been very bad on the road in 2018, losing their last 12 as well as 17 of the last 18 dating back to December 15th. The one win did come over Brooklyn and you have to think that this is at least a comparable situation to this one. Rarely do you have to lay so few points to go against Sacramento. That's what this play is all about as I believe the Pistons are going to treat this as a "must-win" game, especially after HC Stan Van Gundy was fined for ripping the officiating after the loss to Portland. Sacramento is 29th in the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Ouch. 10* Detroit

8* Utah (9:00 ET): The Pac 12 had a very brief and disastrous run in the NCAA Tournament (all three teams lost 1st game, two of them in the "first four"), but the conference is well represented here in the NIT w/ five teams, all of whom WON their first round games! Now Oregon did bow out of the tournament yday, but that still leaves four schools, all of whom are in action tonight. Three are the higher seed and thus host their respective quarterfinal matchups, one of them being Utah. The Utes won their 1st rd NIT matchup, 69-59 over Cal Davis, but failed to cover the 12-pt spread. LSU won and covered its 1st round matchup, beating in-state "rival" LA Lafayette 84-76 as 3.5-pt chalk. 

The homecourt advantage is something you really have to take into account when handicapping the NIT. Now, two home teams did lose quarterfinal matchups over the weekend. But I don't see that happening here as the Utes are 14-3 SU in Salt Lake City, outscoring the opposition by 12.5 points per game. Visiting teams shoot only 38.8% here. In fact, going back to the Pac 12 Tournament, the Utes have held three straight opponents below 40% shooting. Only one of their previous 10 opponents have shot better than 43.1% from the field. I've been stressing the importance of high-level defensive play in my NCAA Tournament picks, which have obviously been quite successful, and the same applies here to the NIT. 

Interestingly, Utah's 1st round opponent (Cal Davis) is a better defensive team than LSU. That may explain why that game was a little closer than expected. There are also the rule changes to this year's NIT as the teams are playing four 10-minute quarters as opposed to two 20-minute halves. The three-point line has also been extended and the free throw lane widened. Utes HC Larry Krystowiak was also ejected from the game vs. UC Davis as his team found itself down by as many as 11 at one point. But then they held the Aggies to 1 of 11 shooting down the stretch. LSU simply overwhelmed Louisiana in its first round game Wednesday, shooting 52% from the floor, but that won't happen again tonight. The Tigers have just three "true" road wins all season, the last one coming in early January. When it comes to defending a shorter three-point distance, Utah already had a clear advantage, thus I'll lay the short number w/o hesitation. 8* Utah

8* Cleveland (7:05 ET): Generally speaking, there have been a lot more "fades" than "takes" on this end when it comes to LeBron James and the Cavaliers this season. The "proof is in the pudding" as this team has turned in a historically bad ATS record so far, currently sitting at 22-46-1, easily a league-worst (next worst is OKC at 30-41-1). It's not just the pointspread that's been giving Cleveland trouble, however. Since the All-Star Break, they are just 6-6 straight up and the wins have come over the likes of Memphis, Brooklyn, Detroit, Denver, Phoenix and Chicago. With the exception of Denver, all of those wins have come against teams that are blatantly tanking. LeBron really bailed out his "skeleton crew" supporting cast Saturday night as he went for 33-13-12 in another virtuoso performance. The Cavs beat the Bulls 114-109, but did not cover the 6.5-pt spread. Tonight, it's a small number at home facing Milwaukee. Can the three-time defending Eastern Conference champs finally cash in? I think "yes!"

There's no problems w/ Cleveland's offense. The team averages 110.3 points per game and ranks fifth in efficiency. However, it is the defensive end that will likely betray this team. There, they rank a shockingly bad 28th in efficiency. I'm a little surprised that this hasn't been more of an "Over team," especially here at home where they give up more PPG than they do on the road. Still though, this is LeBron James laying basically one possession at home. Earlier in the season, such a line would be reserved for only a visit from a top tier team from the West (maybe Boston?). Not the East's seventh best team.

This will be Cleveland's 1st home game since March 5th. They lost three players - Larry Nance, Jr, Cedi Osman and Rodney Hood - to injury during the two-week road trip, plus Kyle Korver to a family emergency. Plus, HC Tye Lue has been ill. Only eight or nine players were active Saturday. (Don't forget both Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson are out as well). Yet, against the odds, I'll still "hitch my wagon" to LeBron here. The Bucks have covered only two of their last 11 games overall and have been outscored over the course of this season. They have a losing road record while the Cavs are 22-11 SU at Quicken Loans Arena. 8* Cleveland 

10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): Portland won its 12th game in a row last night (longest active win streak in the NBA), beating Detroit 100-87. Yet they come into tonight as a slight underdog. However, it's not too difficult to understand why. Last night's game was at home while tonight's is on the road. At home, the Blazers are 25-11 SU, but on the road they're just 18-15. They're also w/o rest, a scenario that has seen them be little better than a 50/50 proposition at the pay window this season (6-5 ATS). Also, might now be the time to start entertaining the notion that the Blazers are slightly overrated? In terms of point differential, they're only sixth in the West and in net efficiency, they're seventh. So I believe its fair to say that they may have peaked. Sharp money appears to have moved this number overnight and I'm inclined to agree! 

The Clippers are just trying to make the playoffs. Now, halfway through the season, that previous sentence might have been up for debate. Hit hard by injuries, the team decided to deal away Blake Griffin to Detroit and it was just widely assumed that the Clips would "phone it in" the rest of the way. That hasn't happened though. They enter Sunday trailing New Orleans by 1.5 games for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Though they have dropped B2B games, those were at Houston and Oklahoma City and both were close. I thought they actually played really well vs. the Thunder Friday night, save for 23 turnovers. 

Statistically speaking, these teams are not far apart when you measure their respective seasons as a whole. Sure, Portland is the hot team right now, but this reminds me a bit of New Orleans last week, who peaked as high as fourth in the conference standings, despite an inferior point differential/net efficiency compared to many of their brethren. Sure enough, the Pelicans have since lost two in a row. We might be about to see something similar w/ Portland, who not only has this game to worry about, but lookaheads to home dates vs. Houston and Boston up next. I just feel Portland has reached its peak in terms of value (covered 9 straight times) and now its time to go against. The situation is ideal (no rest, on the road) and it should be pointed out they've been playing a lot of short-handed teams during this win streak. 10* LA Clippers

8* West Virginia (9:40 ET): I smell a rout cooking here as West Virginia should roll 13-seed Marshall. Granted, I predicted that Marshall would get blown out in its first round game against Wichita State, and not only did that not happen, the Thundering Herd obviously pulled the outright upset, 81-75 as 13.5-pt dogs. Tip your cap to Dan D'Antoni's (brother of Mike) squad though as they looked every bit the better team down the stretch. But note I made a big mistake in handicapping that game as Wichita State came in outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. All tournament long, I've been harping on that metric and for one game I downplayed it and got burned. Maybe I overlooked it because Marshall had never won a NCAA Tourney game before in its history or maybe it was because they only rank 126th themselves in that department. But now let's see how they fare against Bob Huggins and "Press Virginia." My call is that this game won't go well for the underdog. Lay the points. 

This is obviously a battle of in-state schools, so spirits should be high. But emotion alone will not be nearly enough for the Thundering Herd to pull another upset here. I'm concerned that leading scorer Jon Elmore played the full 40 minutes vs. Wichita State and now has to go up against perhaps the most frenetic pressure defense in the land (w/ just one day in between games). Also, Marshall was down seven midway through the second half on Friday and appeared headed for an exit. That is when Elmore got hot though and Wichita State simply fell apart. That won't happen w/ WVU though as the Mountaineers come into this game ranked 43rd in defensive efficiency. That's far lower than usual for a Huggins-coached team, but still much better than Wichita State. 

Odds are not in Marshall's favor here. Teams seeded 13 or lower are just 9-47 SU in the Round of 32, including Buffalo's loss to Kentucky yday (that was my *10* Game of the Week!). We know West Virginia is going to press and while Marshall was careful w/ the basketball vs. Wichita State, this is a whole different animal that they are facing here. WVU rolled Murray State in Round 1, 85-68, despite making only four three-pointers the entire game. Murray State's leading scorer Jonathan Stark went 1 for 12 from the field, an ominous sign here for Elmore. Marshall simply isn't good enough defensively to hang w/ WVU, let alone come close to pulling another upset. 8* West Virginia

8* Florida State (8:40 ET): There has yet to be any real "upset" in the West region where the #3 seed Michigan and #4 seed Gonzaga have already moved onto the Sweet 16. The lone instance of a lower-seeded team even winning a game in this region came late Friday night w/ Florida State dismantling Missouri, but even then, the ninth-seeded Seminoles went off as the betting favorite in that particular matchup. Now the Noles are in an underdog role against top seed Xavier and I see the signs of a "legit" upset being pulled here. Yes, Virginia suffered the all-time embarrassing upset on Friday, but the Musketeers came into the tournament - easily - the weakest 1-seed on paper. I don't even have them rated as a top 10 team and taking the points here seems like a no-brainer to me. 

Whomever wins this game will very likely be the lowest rated team in defensive efficiency going into the Sweet 16. The only three teams that are lower than these two in that department are: Nevada, Marshall and UMBC, all heavy underdogs to go home after Sunday. Xavier only being #60 in the country in defensive efficiency makes them appear particularly vulnerable as a #1 seed and especially laying points to a comparable foe in this area. Now the Musketeers did score over 100 pts and win by 19 on Friday over 16-seed Texas Southern. But they were also facing a team that was playing for the second time in three nights and probably just "happy to be there." This will be a big step up in class and I'm concerned this team leans far too heavily on leading scorer Trevon Blueitt. It's unlikely they get a career-high 24 pts from Kerem Kanter again like they did vs. TX Southern. I also don't see the team shooting 11 of 24 from three-point range again as they did Friday night. 

Florida State now appears likely to be w/o their leading scorer Terance Mann here after he strained his groin in the win over Missouri. That's a shame, but not something the Seminoles can't overcome. I say this because they got 42 of their 67 points from the bench in the highly impressive Round of 64 triumph. In what was supposed to be an "even battle," the Noles dominated Mizzou from the start, taking a 22-point lead into halftime and allowing just 32.7% shooting for the game. This is the ACC's third highest scoring team (81.8 PPG) and they've got legit revenge for an upset suffered in LY's Tournament when they, as a 7.5-pt favorite, fell to Xavier 91-66. Look for a much closer game this time around. 8* Florida State

8* Clemson (7:10 ET): We have a seemingly "even" 4 vs. 5 matchup here w/ the oddsmakers giving a slight lean to Auburn. However, after defeating a tough 12-seed New Mexico State (a very trendy upset pick that did NOT come to fruition) in Round 1, I believe Clemson is set to advance here. The Tigers are top 10 in the country in defensive efficiency and if you've been following my tournament selections, then you already know that's the metric I lean on the most. Note: Auburn isn't too shabby in that department either, ranking 32nd. But that's not top 10 and it's not as if "those Tigers" were overly impressive in the Rd of 64 as they beat Charleston by only four points on what was a bad shooting night. Just like on the football field, look for defense to be the difference maker in a Clemson vs. Auburn matchup. 

Conversely, Clemson shot the ball very well in a 79-68 victory Friday night. They were a blistering 55.9 percent from the field and that came against a New Mexico State team that was also top 20 in the country in defensive efficiency. The Tigers' guards routinely beat the NMSU pressure and that resulted in a double digit lead by halftime. While only 8-6 SU since the loss of Dante Grantham, perhaps that had more to do w/ the rugged ACC and less w/ the Tigers themselves. They have really feasted on non-conference competition this year, going 12-1 SU (8-2 ATS) and shot 55% or better four times. In ACC play, they topped 50% only one time. But Shelton Mitchell appears ready to "pick up the slack" as he scored a season-high 23 points on Friday.

Auburn has also had to cope w/ a key injury as they lost Anfernee McLemore midway through the season. Like Clemson w/o Grantham, they initially struggled. I worry about a team that is somewhat limited offensively to begin with (188th on 2-pt field goals for the season) now facing a much better defensive team in the second round. While they did hit multiple contested three-point shots late, Auburn was only 5 of 21 from behind the arc vs. Charleston, plus they benefited from having the wrong FT shooter (i.e. a much better one) sent to the line at a critical moment. Clemson also isn't going to turn the ball over as much as Charleston did. 8* Clemson

10* Texas A&M (5:15 ET): There has yet to be any real "upset" in the West region where the #3 seed Michigan and #4 seed Gonzaga have already moved onto the Sweet 16. The lone instance of a lower-seeded team even winning a game in this region came late Friday night w/ Florida State dismantling Missouri, but even then, the ninth-seeded Seminoles went off as the betting favorite in that particular matchup. The top two seeds in the region are back in action today and in the case of the #2 vs. #7 seed matchup, I do see plenty of upset potential as North Carolina takes on Texas A&M. The Aggies have the higher defensive efficiency rating coming into this one, as they rank 12th while UNC is just 35th. Take the points. 

A&M got off to a somewhat rough start in its first round game vs. Providence (didn't score first field goal until 7:17 into the game!), yet was able to quickly recover and take the lead by halftime. They would go up by as many as 11 pts in the 2H, including having that lead w/ just 31 seconds remaining. Providence made a couple three-pointers in the closing seconds to make the final score a bit closer, but make no mistake, the Aggies were the better team that day (I had 'em!). A big reason I had the Aggies Friday afternoon was their size advantage over the Friars. They'll enjoy a similar advantage here against the Tar Heels, believe it or not. I wasn't kidding in my analysis for Friday when I said A&M had one of the most talented frontcourts in the country. The tallest player in UNC's starting lineup is 6'8". A&M has two, often three, players taller than that on the floor at any given time. 

North Carolina beat Lipscomb 84-66 on Friday, but only outscored the Bisons by single digits in each half. It will obviously be a big step up in class here after facing a 15-seed, and one that had NEVER played a NCAA Tournament game to boot. A&M dominated Providence on the glass (outrebounded them 44-26) w/ the talented duo of Robert Williams and Tyler Davis combining for 29 of those rebounds. North Carolina is going to have problems w/ those two, mark my words. North Carolina is balanced, but unlikely to get 18 points against from Kenny Williams like they did vs. Lipscomb. With an edge in height and on defense, Texas A&M is more than capable of pulling this upset. Remember they were ranked very high at one point and beat West Virginia early in the season by 23 pts. North Carolina struggles to defend the three-point line. 10* Texas A&M

10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): Both teams played last night, but this is a much worse spot for Dallas as not only did they blow a lead and lose in overtime, but they've got to travel back from Canada and play on the road yet again. Brooklyn lost close in Philadelphia, 120-116, covering the spread as 8.5-pt pups. But while the Mavericks left Toronto w/ the cash, they have to be incredibly disappointed they didn't win outright as they led the heavily favored Raptors (who have only lost five home games all year) before wilting late and losing in OT. Dallas has just eight road wins all year, thus it's difficult to trust them as such a short dog, even against a fellow "also-ran." Lay the points. 

Neither side has performed very well w/o rest this season. Dallas is 3-9 SU in that situation while Brooklyn is 3-10. However, the Nets are at least 9-4 ATS. Now that obviously reflects that they're typically GETTING points in this spot, not laying them as they are here. But they also rarely have drawn an opponent even more weary when in the situation. Brooklyn, like Dallas, played well last night. They led by as many as 13 pts in the first half and the game was tied w/ under three minutes remaining. The Nets are obviously more competitive at home and while it's rare that they are favored, it should speak volumes when they are. They did win in Dallas back in November, 109-104 as 5.5-pt dogs. 

Dallas got "behind the 8-ball" rather quickly this season and never recovered. They're one of four teams in the Western Conference already eliminated from playoff contention. Of those four (also includes Sacramento, Memphis and Phoenix), they are pretty clearly the "best," but that's a case of "damning w/ faint praise" as I feel the other three are probably the worst three teams in the league right now. They aren't good on the road, at all, as their 8-25 SU record clearly indicates. Also, they are just 9-16 SU and ATS when facing teams that have losing records. While both teams are in the second game of a back to back, clearly the situation favors Brooklyn being at home. Dallas' loss last night was probably the more "painful" of the two as well, considering they led by 10 w/ just eight minutes to go in regulation. 10* Brooklyn

8* Washington (7:05 ET): This is the third meeting in 2018 between these two teams and so far the road team has gone 2-0, straight up and against the spread. Back on February 5th, the Wizards went into Indiana and won as four-point favorites, 111-102. Then, just two weeks ago, they were only four-point chalk here at home and lost outright 98-95. Note that they were without John Wall for both games as they will be here for tonight's rubber match. But Indiana has its own injury issues w/ Domantas Sabonis and possibly Myles Turner out due to ankle injuries. There was a fear that Turner's injury was more serious, but it's "just" a low ankle sprain. But he's listed as questionable for tonight. Either way, I like the Wiz in this spot. 

This is a really big game for both teams. Coming into Saturday, Indiana is third in the Eastern Conference, but Cleveland, Washington and Philadelphia are all within 1.5 games of them. That quartet will likely end up matching up in two first round playoff series, so the jockeying for playoff position (and homecourt advantage) is huge. While Washington did need double overtime (and was down 20!) to a severely undermanned Celtics squad Wednesday night, I suspect they'll come out a lot more inspired tonight. As a home favorite, they've been shaky at the betting window this year, but I like the spread here. Losing twice to Indiana at home, in two weeks' time, is something I just don't see happening.

Indiana has had some issues offensively of late. They've failed to score even 100 pts in five of the past seven games, which just won't get it done in today's NBA. Washington averages 109 PPG at home. Not having Turner would leave them really thin in the frontcourt. The Pacers failed to take advantage of 20 Toronto turnovers Thursday night in a home loss where they fell apart down the stretch. It was the fourth time in the last six games they shot 43% or worse from the field. Washington didn't shoot well in the meeting two weeks ago and found itself down 10 at half. But I expect a stronger start and better result tonight. 8* Washington

10* Kentucky (5:15 ET): Well, it sure does seem if the Wildcats' half of the bracket "opened up," hasn't it? Gone is top seed Virginia thanks to a historic upset suffered last night at the hands of UMBC (first time a 16 seed ever beat a 1 seed). But prior to the Hoos bowing out in the most infamous of fashion, Coach Cal and company had to be feeling pretty good about itself. That's because the 4-seed, Arizona, also lost. So now UK is looking at a scenario where they'll only have to beat a 13-seed, then the winner of Kansas State-UMBC (9 vs. 16 seed), to get to the Elite 8. Saturday evening sees them taking on the team that took out Arizona, that being Buffalo, champions out of the MAC. I had Kentucky beating Arizona in this spot anyway and we're getting a great line here due to all the hype surrounding "Cinderella." Lay the points. 

What UMBC did to Virginia last night was an all-time shocker, but let's not forget that Buffalo beat Arizona by 21 points and looked every bit the better team Thursday night. The Bulls basically led the entire way (never trailed by more than three) and totally overwhelmed their favored counterparts w/ quickness from the guard position. Buffalo shot almost 55% for the game, taking advantage of an Arizona team that quite frankly wasn't great on the defensive end to begin with. The three-point line was also a deciding factor as Buffalo made 15 of 30 from behind the arc while Arizona went an ugly 2 of 18. But now the question comes - can Buffalo do it again? Kentucky is a lot better defensively compared to Arizona, so obviously my thinking here is a great big "no." 

Kentucky appears to be "peaking" right now as they come into the Rd of 32 having won eight of nine - both straight up and against the spread. A 5-seed, they were actually a popular pick to be upset in the first round by Davidson (Note: no 12 seeds won this year). But they overwhelmed the Wildcats, winning 78-73 in a game that wasn't necessarily as close as the final score indicates. Kentucky never trailed after the opening minutes and was up double digits going into the final minute (not to mention, at halftime as well). Davidson made a meaningless three in the closing seconds to make it a five-point game. Interesting is that Kentucky was able to win the game despite not making a single three-pointer. So while Buffalo is likely "due" to cool off here, UK is likely to be more proficient from deep. They dominated Davidson in the paint, outscoring them 36-20, and I see the same thing happening here. 10* Kentucky

8* Alabama (12:10 ET): To most, I think Bama's 86-83 "upset" of Va Tech in Round 1 won't register as anything special. But I came away wholly impressed w/ the Crimson Tide, who were able to win a game despite allowing the Hokies to score 83 pts on 55.6% shooting. Defense is typically this team's calling card, but on Thursday night it was the offense leading the charge. The Tide shot a ridiculous 60% from the field en route to their highest scoring effort since November. However, I'm still going to lean on the fact that this team is in the top 20 nationally in defensive efficiency. They rank higher than Villanova in that area, key because I think this could end up being the ONLY time in this entire tournament that the team w/ the better defensive efficiency is getting double digits. Take the points.

Villanova obviously looked impressive Thursday night. They jumped out to a 31-8 (!) lead and it was basically over at that point. With 11:45 left in the game, and up 69-37, the top-seeded Wildcats were shooting a ridiculous 75% overall and 60% from three-point range! As impressive as all that is, remember they were facing a 16-seed (Radford) that not only had zero chance of winning, but was also playing for a second time in three nights. There's a huge jump from 16 seeds to every other team in the Tournament. So you almost have to disregard the result in a sense. (Note: That preceding sentence was obviously written before UMBC's historic upset over Virginia!). Now Villanova is obviously still very good, but I come back to the fact they rank slightly lower than 'Bama in defensive efficiency. All that win over Radford did is ensure we'd have a really nice number to grab w/ their second rd opponent.

I really came away impressed w/ the athletes on Alabama. None moreso than freshman Collin Sexton, who scored 21 of his game-high 24 pts in the second half, making six of 10 field goal attempts and 10 of 14 free throws. Might he be the best player on the floor Saturday afternoon? That's certainly something to consider. There's also Sexton's fellow freshman in the backcourt, James Petty. As a team, Alabama made 67 percent of its two-point attempts for the game. This team can both score and defend and is a huge step up from Villanova's 1st round opponent. They are certainly more than capable of keeping this game within single digits, if not pull the outright upset. 8* Alabama

8* Syracuse (9:40 ET): Similar to Nevada-Texas, this is a 1st round matchup where one side will enjoy a massive edge in defensive efficiency (I keep harping on this for good reason!). It was far from the most "aesthetically pleasing" victory for Syracuse in the "First Four," but their defense shined in a 60-56 victory where they held the Sun Devils to 40.4% shooting. Their next opponent, TCU, profiles very similar to Arizona State in that they have a rather dramatic split in offensive vs. defensive efficiency. The Horned Frogs are 8th in offensive efficiency, but only 105th on the defensive end. (Arizona State, for the record, was 19th and 125th). Syracuse is now 10th in the nation in defensive efficiency and that will again be the difference here. Take the points. 

That Syracuse defense held ASU to its lowest point total of the season - easily -as the previous low was 64. It was only the third time all year that the Sun Devils were held below 70 points. With the "vaunted" 2-3 matchup zone, I figure the Orange will give TCU similar problems. Sophomore PG Jaylen Fisher was lost for the season, remember, and the Horned Frogs are just 6-6 SU overall the L12 games w/o him. Furthermore, the Horned Frogs were just 3-10 SU vs. NCAA Tourney teams this season, including two losses each to Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas Tech. They were "one and done" in the Big 12 Tournament, getting upset by Kansas State, 66-64 as three-point favorites. In its previous two losses before that, the Frogs shot just 41 percent from the field. 

Syracuse's zone should frustrate the TCU guards. Remember that the Orange is also the tallest team in the country, not just the tournament. Conversely, the TCU defense should allow the Orange's shooters some opportunities they are usually not afforded. TCU is an atrocious 324th nationally in three-point FG% defense, allowing opponents to convert at a 38.3% clip. While Syracuse can struggle to score at times, they were able to beat a top-20 offense despite barely shooting 40% from the floor themselves and missing 10 of 23 free throw attempts. I think they'll be better offensively here. But defense tends to beat offense this time of year and experience matters too. This is TCU's 1st NCAA Tourney appearance since 1998. 8* Syracuse 

8* Toronto (7:35 ET): The Raptors won again last night, 106-99 at Indiana, increasing their win streak to 10 games (NOT the longest active streak in the NBA right now) and their lead over Boston to five games for the top spot in the East. To me, Toronto is CLEARLY the best team in the Eastern Conference. You have to wonder if the franchise's "checkered history" (have advanced past 1st rd only three times, two of those coming in the L2 years) still works against them. Because they actually have a better per game point differential than Golden State (+8.9 vs. +7.9) and are set to overtake Houston (+9.0) for the league lead in that department. The Raptors are 28-5 straight up at Air Canada Center (best home record in the league) where they are outscoring foes by 11.6 PPG! I'll gladly swallow the points here against a sub-par Dallas team that's simply playing out the string. 

The Mavs did win their last time out as well, beating the depleted Knicks 110-97 on Tuesday. They've had two days off in what will end up being a four-game road trip w/ these next three games all being played over the next four days. I'm actually on record as saying Dallas is better than a lot of the other bottom-feeders in the league and they've been competitive of late, winning three of four. The one loss was to Houston, but by 23 pts at home. However, to me, Toronto should be a double-digit favorite at home against an average team. Dallas remains below average, so the number looks short. The Mavs are just 8-24 SU on the road and remember that's w/ a win their last time out. Something else to keep in mind is they just lost SG Wesley Matthews for the year to a broken leg. 

Toronto did need to come from behind to win at Indiana last night as they were down eight at the half and did not take the lead unti late in the fourth quarter. However, they did dominate the Pacers on the boards and stll wound up covering the spread. I realize there is a question of fatigue here w/ this being the second game of a back to back, but this is not the most challenging of opponents. That said, the Raptors do have legit revenge for a five-point loss down in Dallas back in December. That was one of their worst offensive games of the season (shot only 33%!), something that won't happen again here. 8* Toronto

8* Texas (4:30 ET): This is yet another matchup where one side has an extreme edge in defensive efficiency, this one possibly the most extreme example yet. Texas may have gone just 18-12 SU overall and 8-10 SU in conference, but they finished Top 10 in defensive efficiency nationally. Nevada, 27-7 SU overall and regular season champs in the Mountain West, ranked outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. That massive gap will prove to be the difference maker in this one. Also, it could be said the Wolfpack (tied for highest seed in program history) were somewhat exposed w/ an early exit in the conference tournament where they were beaten badly by San Diego State. Texas hails from the better conference and is being vastly underrated in this spot.

Texas has plenty of size and one of the most impressive frontcourts in the country. The good news is that stud freshman Mohamed Bamba  is set to play here. Bamba is second in the country w/ 3.8 blocks per game. He'll give the Horns a massive edge - literally and figuratively - inside. He played only 14 minutes in the team's 68-64 loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 quarterfinals. That's a good team that they were able to cover against, without their best player. The Longhorns have covered three of four down the stretch, including an impressive win over West Virginia in the regular season final. The 'Horns obviously play in a much stronger conference than Nevada, so take the respective records w/ a grain of salt. 

Nevada has only played eight games against NCAA Tournament teams and three of those were vs. San Diego State (went 1-2). Another was against 16-seed Radford. They went 0-2 SU vs. the BIg 12, losing to TCU and Texas Tech. The Wolfpack are also a banged up team right now. PG Lindsey Drew was lost to an Achilles injury back in mid-February and since then, they've lost twice. Several other players are banged up too and this is just a six-man rotation for HC Eric Musselman. If there's any kind of foul trouble, Nevada will most definitely be "up against it." The way you beat the Wolfpack is by slowing the game down and controlling the boards. Coincidentally, those are the ways Texas wins. In the MWC Semifinal loss to San Diego State, Nevada was -10 in rebounds and found themselves down by THIRTY at the half! In the L3 losses, they are -30 on the boards. The Longhorns get the first NCAA Tourney win of the Shaka Smart era! 8* Texas 

8* Butler (3:10 ET): This is another of these first round matchups where a team that is clearly better (to me) is laying a really short number. It also looks to be one of only two games (also FSU vs. Missouri) where the lower seeded team is favored. Now I will concede that Arkansas is a formidable offensive team and is coming off a nice run in the SEC Tournament. But this time of year is when I put more stock in the defensive end of the floor and there is where the Razorbacks' resume can be picked apart as they rank 103rd nationally in defensive efficiency. That's one of the lowest rankings of any team from a power conference in the tournament. Arkansas beat both South Carolina and Florida in the SEC Tourney, but was then exposed by Tennessee in an 84-66 semifinal loss. Lay the points here w/ Butler.

Over in the Big East Tournament, Butler did not have a good semifinal experience either. They lost to Villanova 87-68 as 8.5-pt dogs. That came on the heels of a buzzer beating victory over Seton Hall, a revenge game for a loss in the regular season finale. The Bulldogs did not finish the regular season particularly well, going just 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS their last nine games. But seven of those games were against tourney teams, four away from home, and they still walked away w/ three victories. That may not sound all that impressive, but note the Bulldogs lost three games to teams seeded #1 in the NCAA Tourney, Villanova twice and Xavier. Butler is a respectable 31st nationally in offensive efficiency, not far behind Arkansas (#18), but as alluded to earlier, it's the other end of the floor where the clear edge comes into play. The Bulldogs rank 49th in defensive efficiency. 

But while Butler's edge might be on defense, let's not discount their offense. They scored 101 pts in a victory over Villanova on New Year's Eve (Wildcats' 1st loss of season) and average 79.1 points per game. They are also top 50 in the country in two-point FG%. They've got experience as well w/ six players having been in the Tournament before. Arkansas was already thin in the front court before dismissing Dustin Thomas (a starter!) prior to the SEC Tournament. Also, nine of the Hogs' 10 losses this season came by double digit margins. 8* Butler

analysis soon

8* Texas A&M (12:15 ET): I'm not really "getting" the love for Providence in this spot. Sure, the Friars pulled an upset of Xavier (a #1 seed) last weekend in the Big East Tournament, but they're a pretty pedestrian team from where I sit. Their 3-0 ATS performance last weekend (beat Creighton & Xavier, covered vs. Villanova) can be picked apart in the sense that all three games went into overtime, which probably works AGAINST them here. For what it's worth, Providence has the lowest BPI rating (ESPN) of any at-large team in the field. With the line having shifted, I now see some significant value on Texas A&M. Granted, the Aggies didn't exactly close strong, bowing out earlier than expected in the SEC Tournament w/ a one-point loss to Alabama. But that was a tough spot facing the Crimson Tide a second straight time (beat them in reg season finale). A&M is still #12 in the country in defensive efficiency and that carries a lot of weight w/ me. Lay the points. 

Really, I'm not sure what area Providence has in this matchup. They're also outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency. That's owed in large part to a lack of three-point shooting. Only one player on the roster shoots better than 40% from three-point range and the team was second from the bottom among Big East teams from behind the arc. They do a good job defending, particularly the arc, and actually led the Big East in PPG allowed. However, that being said, A&M is still superior defensively. Also as good as the Friars may be at guarding the three-point line, they are in the bottom 100 nationally in two-point FG% at 51.7. Falling behind is never good, but especially for a team the likes of Providence that isn't really built to come from behind.

A&M has both talent and depth in its frontcourt, led by probable 1st rd NBA draft pick Robert Williams, who shot 67% on two-point attempts during the regular season. Given the info provided above on the Providence defense, I look for Williams to have a big game here and exploit the edge the Aggies have on the interior. While Providence is in the bottom 100 nationally in two-point FG defense, A&M is in the top 15. That's a massive edge. Suspensions and injuries hurt the Aggies in the early going of the SEC slate, but now they're at full strength and have six players averaging at least 9.0 PPG. A&M is the better team here and laying a short number, somewhat of a "no-brainer." 8* Texas A&M 

8* Detroit (9:05 ET): Despite trading for Blake Griffin halfway through the season, it's looking less and less likely that the Pistons will be making the playoffs, even in the watered-down Eastern Conference. Since Griffin's arrival, they've generally been a disaster at the betting window and their last time out, they took a horrendous 110-79 beatdown at the hands of Utah. That leaves them five full games back of the eight spot in the Conference and money-burning 5-19 ATS their L24 games overall. On paper, things are no easier tonight as they visit one of the teams w/ the strongest homecourt advantages in the league. But I'm not entirely sure Denver deserves to be laying this kind of weight. Take the points. 

It's not just the bad ATS stretch that has the Pistons undervalued here; it's also how badly they were beaten Tuesday in Utah. The game was never close as Detroit found itself down 21 pts at the end of the 1st quarter. They were then outscored in every subsequent quarter and never got closer than 15 pts. They shot below 40% in every quarter as well, finishing the game at 37.5% overall. Needless to say, they're "due" for a better offensive night here. A big difference is the Jazz are tied for #2 in the league in defensive efficiency while Denver is tied for 24th. That lends itself to my belief that a much better offensive performance is forthcoming. 

The Nuggets are just 5-5 SU since the All-Star Break and are in 10th place in the Western Conference. I played against them Tuesday night, as road favorites, and sure enough they lost outright to the Lakers. It was the second straight road game I played against them and got the same result. Now this is a much better team at home (26-10 straight up), however, they normally aren't being asked to lay this many points. They did cover the L2 here at home, against Sacramento and the Lakers, but this is an opponent they are less familiar with. Interestingly enough, when these teams played back in December, the Pistons were a seven-point favorite. Granted, they got blown out 103-84, but now the line has totally flipped the other way. I expect the Pistons to come out motivated here after playing one of their worst games of the season two nights ago. 8* Detroit

8* Houston (7:20 ET): This Houston team is a legit darkhorse. Ranking in the top 20 nationally in defensive efficiency, the Cougars are coming off a strong run in the American Tourney where they upset Wichita State, then took Cincinnati to the limit in the Final (lost by only 1 in a real "rock-fight," 56-55). I think they're a solid value Thursday against a San Diego State team that is only here thanks to an upset of Nevada in the Mountain West Tourney. Without that and the subsequent win over New Mexico in the conference tourney final, the Aztecs would be in the NIT, not here. To me, they are clearly the inferior squad here. Lay the short number as I expect Houston to roll in this 6 vs. 11 matchup. 

In terms of talent and the metrics, I think Houston is a lot closer to Cincinnati and Wichita State than people realize. It definitely was a "Big 3" in the American this year and I would argue that the Cougars were actually better than Wichita State! This is an excellent rebounding team, one that has a +7.7 edge in boards per game over their opponents. Then there is the defense, which gives up just 64.9 PPG. Teams shot less than 40% for the season against the Cougs. They do have an issue w/ fouling too much, but I don't think that will hurt them here. Something else that is key is they come into Thursday off a loss. Despite an 18-11 SU record, UH NEVER lost B2B games during the regular season. 

San Diego State seemed headed for a pretty pedestrian season under 1st year HC Brian Dutcher. They were 13-10 SU going into a Valentine's Day tilt w/ Wyoming, but won that game and haven't lost since. It's nine straight wins coming into the Tournament. The big one was obviously beating Nevada in the MWC semis. It was actually the second win in less than a week over the Wolfpack, a pretty good achievement. They also beat Gonzaga earlier in the year. But other than that, there really aren't any other quality wins. They finished fourth in a pretty weak conference and are a fringe top 50 team. I have Houston ranked inside my top 20. While the Aztecs are also pretty good defensively, they lack a "go-to" guy offensively and aren't very prolific from three-point range. Houston, conversely, shoots 38.7% from behind the arc. 8* Houston

10* Seton Hall (4:30 ET): It's my belief that Seton Hall is simply a better all-around team that North Carolina State. Therefore, I have zero issue laying what is a very short number Thursday afternoon in this Round of 64 matchup. The Pirates, who are a fringe Top 25 team from where I sit, come into the Tournament highly motivated after a 1st round exit LY at the hands of Arkansas. All season long it has been the players' stated goal to win a NCAA Tournament game. Adding to the motivation is an earlier than expected exit from the Big East Tournament last week. A good Butler team beat them (by one) on a last second tip-in. That was no upset though as the Pirates were slight underdogs. They come into Thursday on a 5-0 ATS run.

NC State is wholly unimpressive and I'm not exactly sure they deserved to be among the field of 68. This is a team that trailed Pitt (who didn't win a single ACC game this year) at the half. Yes, they did beat both Duke and North Carolina, the latter coming on the road. But when you start talking about the defensive end of the floor, that is when the cracks really start to show with this team. They rank 100th nationally in defensive efficiency, a dubious distinction, as only a "handful" of power conference teams that made the Tournament rank lower in that department. They gave up 91 points to Boston College last week, making them one and done in the ACC Tourney. They shot better than 50% from three-point range and 53% overall and still lost!

That kind of leaky defense should prove problematic against a Seton Hall squad averaging 79.0 PPG. Granted, the Pirates aren't the best defensively themselves, but they are 43 spots higher in efficiency compared to NC State. This is also a team that traditionally plays well when rested. They are 11-2 ATS when taking the court w/ five or six days rest. The Pirates have been "one and done" in the Tourney each of the last two years, so will the third time "be the charm?" Yes, I think so. NC State has not been to the Tournament since 2015, which was under a previous regime. Their non-conference schedule was not good and this is a team that does not fare well under the slower pace that Tournament games tend to be played at. Seton Hall is the more experienced team here and the fact they don't turn the ball over much will spell doom for a NC State team that struggles when the other team isn't giving it away. 10* Seton Hall

8* Loyola IL (3:10 ET): Of all the first round matchups, this is the one where the lower seed is most likely to win, in my opinion. The oddsmakers certainly seem to agree, installing 6th seeded Miami as only a short favorite for this battle w/ regular season and conference tourney champ Loyola IL, out of the Missouri Valley. This Ramblers are in the Big Dance for the 1st time in 33 years, so the opportunity certainly won't be taken lightly. This is a team that can shoot the lights out (50.7 FG% for the season, third best in the country and tops among tournament teams!) and perhaps more importantly they can play defense too. This is the rare time where a team seeded 11 or lower has a markedly better defensive efficiency rating than its counterpart. Loyola is 25th nationally in defensive efficiency while Miami is 45th. It all adds up to a 1st round upset, IMO. Take the points. 

It's not as if "The U" heads into the Big Dance in fine form either. Being 4-4 SU over your last eight games is unimpressive on its own, but when you consider that those four wins came by a TOTAL of eight points, well, it's even less impressive. Furthemore, the Hurricanes will be w/o soph guard Bruce Brown, Jr, due to a left foot injury. Now Brown has been out for awhile (surgery was Feb 1), but since his departure, the team's lone DD win was against a Pitt team that went winless in ACC play. The Canes have gone just 3-10 ATS their L13 games. They have not shot the ball well this year, either from the free throw line (66.6%!) or three-point range (36.5%) and lack experience. As a favorite, their ATS record this season was only 5-10. 

Meanwhile, Loyola lost only five times all year and comes into the tourney having won 17 of 18. They have five double digit scorers and six different players shoot better than 37.5% from behind the arc. As a team, the Ramblers shoot nearly 40% from distance! They beat Florida earlier this season (in Gainesville!). Their three conference losses were by a combined 11 pts, none greater than a five-point margin. Honestly, looking at this matchup, I'm not sure how much of an "upset" it would really be as Loyola may simply be the better team overall. They are top five in the country in PPG allowed, giving up just 62.7 PPG. This was an awful draw for the 'Canes. 8* Loyola IL

8* UNC Greensboro (1:30 ET): When searching for a potential "Cinderella" in the NCAA Tournament, there are several "boxes" I like to check. First off, did the team win its regular season conference crown? In the case of UNC Greensboro, that's a check, as the Spartans won the SoCon w/ a 15-3 SU record and went 27-7 SU overall. They beat a very good East Tennessee State team in the Tournamet Final, 62-47. They can also play some defense too, ranking inside the top 30 in efficiency nationally. That's another key metric I like to look at (it certainly "foretold" South Carolina's run to the Final 4 last year). For this 1st round matchup, UNCG draws LY's national runner-up Gonzaga and I think they're getting way too many points.

Gonzaga largely sleepwalked through WCC play, something that they could get away with, considering how bad the league was this season. St. Mary's not getting into the Tournament certainly hurts the Zags' resume. This team is not as strong as last year's, which entered the Big Dance #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. This year, they dropped down to 16th. But again, you have to question the resume as the Zags haven't beaten a Tournament team going back to December 1st. That makes them no different than UNCG in that regard. Gonzaga did "turn it on" in the conference tourney, beating all three opponents by double digits. But two of those teams aren't very good (Loyola Marymount, San Francisco) and they were lucky to avoid St. Mary's in the Final, instead playing BYU. The late run has the Zags a bit overvalued here, IMO.

In my estimation, UNC Greensboro would be the 4th best team in the WCC. Really, they are pretty comparable to BYU. Now, yes, I haven't forgotten what I just typed about the WCC Final. But a big key here is how Gonzaga isn't as familiar w/ UNCG as they are BYU, who they played three times. The line here is also several pts higher than it was for that BYU game. Something to make note of is that UNC Greensboro has a lot more size than you're accustomed to seeing from a mid-major. That's a big reason why this team ranked 6th nationally in PPG allowed. The Spartans covered all six non-conference games that were lined in the regular season. Not sure they'll pull the outright upset, but expect a close game here. 8* UNC Greensboro

10* Golden State (10:35 ET): The Warriors' embarrassment of riches has never been more apparent than here where I'll gladly lay the points despite them being w/o Steph Curry, Draymond Green and possibly Klay Thompson. They still have Kevin Durant remember. While Curry's ankle is keeping him out of action, it appears the former MVP's 30th birthday party is what has claimed the others on the roster. It certainly appeared to be a good time on that yacht and as a result practice was cancelled yday. Now the team has lost two straight w/o Curry, but those losses were on the road against tough opponents, Portland and Minnesota. There's no other team in the league I'd take w/ all the above factors in play, but the Dubs are obviously different.

Key to this play is that the Lakers (who I've won w/ B2B games) are in the second night of a back to back and playing their fifth game in seven nights. LA was a winner for me both Sunday vs. Cleveland and last night vs. Denver, but those were both home games. On the road this year, this team is only 13-21 SU and allowing 113.8 PPG. There's also some attrition on this end as Bradon Ingram is still out w/ a strained groin. The team was able to overcome his absence last night, but three starters logged 39 or more minutes in the win, which saw them have to rally in the fourth quarter (outscored Denver 35-21). This is a bad spot for the Lakers and one can only imagine what the line would be if the Dubs were even close to full strength here. 

Golden State does have Durant though and he's scored 79 pts total the L2 games. The Warriors are also no stranger to facing the Lakers short-handed this season. In two of the three previous meetings, Curry hasn't played. They were also w/o Green in a two-point road win (overtime) back in December. Despite beating the Lakers 15 of the last 19 meetings, one would have to go back almost a quarter century to find the last time (1994) the Warriors swept a season series from their division rival. So there's your motivation there, in addition to the B2B losses. Look, I've been on the Lakers recently as they've played well since the All-Star Break (8-2 L10). But this is a horrible spot for them and only the second time all year GSW has been off B2B losses. 10* Golden State 

8* Syracuse (9:10 ET): Defensive efficiency is a key metric that I will lean on throughout the NCAA Tournament. Here, it looks to be a huge edge for Syracuse. Neither of these teams should have even gotten into the Big Dance, but now that both are here, we should probably look to exploit the situation. Jim Boeheim will COACH against Bobby Hurley here and I don't know who that should make "feel older" - me, or Boeheim. Regardless, the veteran HC brings a much better defensive team into this year's tournament compared to what Hurley has. Syracuse ranks 11th nationally in defensive efficiency while ASU is an unsightly 125th, the worst such ranking of any team from any "major" conference in the tournament. Based on that and the fact they're a slight dog, I'm all over the Orange here.

Both of these squads have the somewhat dubious distinction of owning losing records in conference play (both 8-10 SU). Again though, that seems like a knock against ASU given that they play in the weak Pac 12, which sent only three teams to the Tourney and two (them and UCLA) are "first four" participants. Meanwhile, I'm not going to ever give a ringing endorsement of a team that goes 8-10 SU in conference play, but at least Syracuse has the "excuse" of playing in the ACC, which sent NINE teams to the Big Dance, the most of any league in the land. The 'Cuse can at least say they have wins over the likes of Clemson and Miami, both of whom are seeded six or higher. While Arizona State started 12-0 w/ wins over Xavier and Kansas (both #1 seeds), the metrics were all in agreement that the offensive production (were averaging 91.8 PPG!) was unsustainable and that regression was forthcoming. That is exactly what transpired. 

Now Syracuse might be as inept offensively as any team in this Tournament. But again, it's the other end of the floor that will determine the outcome of this game. Against power five foes that average 70 or fewer possessions per game, ASU went just 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS in the regular season. Syracuse plays slow and will obviously play a lot of zone here. Those are two things that have given the Sun Devils all sorts of trouble. Meanwhile, ASU's defense is just terrible as they rank only one spot higher in efficiency than Radford, a 16-seed that had to win a "first four game" yday. 8* Syracuse

8* LA Lakers (10:35 ET) Similar setup here to my winner w/ the Lakers over Cleveland Sunday night as I believe they should be favored at home against the Nuggets. The Lakers have actually played really well since the All-Star Break, winning seven of nine, and Sunday's double digit triumph over the Cavs may have been the finest performance yet. Led by a career night from Julius Randle (36-11-7), the Lakers basically led the entire way. Now they look to avenge one of their only two losses since the Break. Friday in Denver, they fell to the Nuggets 125-116 as eight-point dogs. The Nuggets, ironically, were coming off a home win over Cleveland two days prior. Deja vu? I think so! Take the points. 

A change in venue should be a big reason for a change in result from last Friday. Denver is 26-10 SU at the Pepsi Center where they enjoy one of the stronger homecourt advantages in the entire league. But on the road, they are just 11-20 SU and give up over 110.2 PPG. Considering the way the Lakers just pushed around another bad defensive team (Cleveland), I see the same thing happening here. Also, while the Lakers are just 13-21 SU on the road, they sport a winning record here at Staples Center. Their only home loss since the start of February came against a Portland team that is the hottest in the league right now and that game was close (lost by only five). 

Obviously, Houston and Golden State are the class of the Western Conference this year. But behind them are eight teams currently separated by just four games. The Nuggets are at the bottom of the spectrum, tied w/ two other teams - Utah and San Antonio (!) - for the eighth seed. So I know this game is important to them. But the role of spoiler seems to be treating the Lakers well. Given they rank 25th in the league in defensive efficiency (Lakers are 13th), the signs are on the wall that Denver may be one one of the two teams left out of the playoffs amongst the current crop of contenders. They've played a pretty easy schedule of late, yet are only 4-4 SU the L8 games (were favored six times). The last time they hit the road, they lost outright to Dallas (I was on the Mavs!) and gave up 118 pts. Both teams coming in off a double digit win (Denver beat Sacramento 130-104 Sunday) sets up an interesting scenario. While the Nuggets are 5-12 ATS off a win by 10+ pts, the Lakers are 12-2! 10* LA Lakers

8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): This is a bad spot for Oklahoma City to be laying points, even if the opponent is "only" Atlanta. The Thunder didn't cover last night either as they were laying double digits at home to Sacramento. The Kings may very well be the worst team in the league (if not them, Phoenix or Memphis), yet OKC entered the fourth quarter trailing them, at home. It took Russell Westbrook's 20th triple double of the season to notch the 106-101 victory. They are now 4th in the West, one-half game ahead of New Orleans and Minnesota, but tonight happens to mark their their third game in four nights not to mention their fourth in six nights. They've gotten to play the last three all at home and faced both Phoenix and Sacramento, not to mention a decimated Spurs' squad. Over the L6 road games, the Thunder do not have a win greater than eight points. Take the points here. 

While OKC is fighting for homecourt advantage in the 1st round of the playoffs, Atlanta's fate was sealed long ago, some might say even before the season started. It's no surprise to see this team heading to the lottery, although I should mention that will snap the East's longest active playoff streak at 10 straight seasons. Though they have lost three in a row and find themselves tied at the bottom of the conference currently, the Hawks have generally been a competitive bunch here at home where their record is a respectable 15-20 SU and they're being outscored by less than three points per game. They've also done quite well against the Western Conference this year, going 16-7-1 ATS w/ a positive point differential. 

Atlanta had last night off, which was needed after losing at home to Chicago on Sunday. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, loses an hour as it has to travel East (w/o rest) and remember we're just getting used to Daylight Savings Time (this stuff has an effect!). It's not like the Thunder haven't been bankrupting their backers all season anyway; their 27-41-1 ATS mark is second worst in the league right now, ahead of only a Cleveland team that has been historically bad at the betting window. Both teams have been short-handed of late and while that might seem to hurt the Hawks more, they got 38 points from Taurean Price on Sunday and the schedule is more kind to them coming into this one. 8* Atlanta

10* Radford (6:40 ET): We've moved past questioning the existence of these first four "play in" (opening round) games, at least I think. Every year, we've seen at least one team that played either Tuesday or Wednesday advance to the Rd of 32. Of course, none of the 16 seeds have ever done that. But seeing as no 16 seed has ever beaten a 1 seed, it's kind of nice to have these games as at least there is the chance for victory. Typically, these 16 vs. 16 seed matchups feature teams that did NOT win their regular season conference crown and such is the case here. Radford hails from the Big South and they caught a break in the conference tournament as top seed UNC Asheville was eliminated in the semifinal round, then won in the final on a buzzer beater. LIU Brooklyn won the Northeast Conference by stunning top seeded Wagner themselves in the Tournament Final. 

Though Radford didn't finish first in the Big South, it's not as if they weren't close. They finished in second place, just one game behind UNC Asheville. They come into the Big Dance on a real roll, having won seven in a row. Now I will concede that they didn't play UNC Asheville (who was the last team to beat them, by two, back on 2.10)during that stretch and instead picked up a good number of wins against the bottom of the conference (including two over last place Longwood). However, they did beat #3 seed Winthrop in the semifinals and then Liberty (who ousted UNC Asheville) in the final. The Highlanders have been playing some great defense of late, holding six of the last seven opponents to 53 pts or less. They've allowed just 50.8 PPG the L5 contests on 39.2% shooting. Though it won't matter beyond tonight, playing that kind of defense is huge this time of year. Radford ranks in the top 20 nationally for scoring defense this season. 

Long Island has also turned in some solid defensive numbers of late as opponents have shot only 35.5% against them the L5 games. That percentage seems somewhat unsustainable, however. The Blackbirds stunned reg season champ Wagner in the NEC Final, 71-61 as 9.5-pt dogs, thanks in large part to Wagner shooting only 30 percent from the field. It was Wagner's only home loss of the season (what a time!) and the 1st half was the difference maker as LIU was able to go into the break w/ a shocking 34-18 edge. I just cannot see the Blackbirds coming anywhere close to duplicating that kind of performance. It's not as if they are any kind of stout defensive team. They rank 295th in defensive efficiency, which is second worst among the 68 tournament teams. (Radford is 133rd, 2nd best among the 16 seeds (Penn)). LIU was only 13-16 SU on Feb 21st and didn't beat a single team in the field of 68 all year. They are a small team that ranks in the top 17 nationally in turning the ball over. Though Radford has not been to an NCAA Tournament since '09, this is the third time in the last five seasons under HC Mike Jones that they've won 20+ games. They are the better team here and should win relatively easily. 10* Radford

10* Miami (10:35 ET): The Heat look to going into Portland short-handed Monday night, but that gives us an inflated number to exploit. Among those on the injury list tonight for the Heat are: Justise Winslow, Dwyane Wade and Hassan Whiteside. Of the three, Winslow is the most likely to play. Wade is officially OUT and Whiteside is doubtful. Given Portland is as hot as any team in the sport right now, this seems problematic. But I believe the Blazers are going to be in full letdown mode here after just beating another injury-riddled team, Golden State, over the weekend. Whether they're at full strength or not, beating the Warriors is always a big deal, for any team. Portland's streak of six straight ATS wins comes to an end here. Take the points. 

Miami has been on a bit of a hot streak (pun intended!) of their own recently as they're 4-1 SU, 4-0-1 ATS the last five games. The lone loss during that stretch was by four at Washington and they just avenged it Saturday night w/ a commanding 129-102 victory, at home. Let's also not discount the importance of this game for the Heat, who are currently seventh in the East. The top eight have started to pull away from the pack in the conference, meaning the likelihood of Miami making the playoffs seems secure. But they'd probably like to move up into 4th or 5th, so that they can avoid Toronto, Boston or Cleveland in a 1st round series. That's something not out of the realm of possibility. 

Portland's win over Golden State was their ninth in a row. With Houston losing Friday night, that's the longest active win streak in the league right now. They are off back to back double-digit wins and both opponents were w/o their best player. The Warriors didn't have Steph Curry and the Knicks are of course w/o Kristaps Porzingis. Miami may not have Whiteside, but keep in mind they didn't have them when they beat Washington by 27 pts the other night. The five starters combined to shoot 77 percent from the field! They won't be able to do that again tonight, but this is also a top 10 defensive team and that should be enough to keep them inside this inflated number. 10* Miami

10* LA Lakers (9:05 ET): I won't go so far as to say Cleveland is a "bad" team, but they are decidedly mediocre. The advanced metrics suggest it could be a very short playoff run for LeBron and company as they have barely outscored their opponents over the course of the season, thanks in large part to a 28th place ranking in defensive efficiency. The Cavs fell again on Friday night, 116-102, which was their 17th double digit loss this season! Following those defeats, they have not fared well their next time out, going an ugly 3-13 ATS (only 8-8 straight up). Overall, it has been a historically bad year at the betting window w/ Cleveland's ATS record now 21-43-1 ATS, easily a league-worst, and when you factor out the games they were an underdog in, that ATS record dips to an unsightly 11-38! The sharp money appears to be against them again tonight and I concur. Take the points. 

The Cavs are just 4-5 SU since the All-Star Break and those four wins have been against: Memphis, Brooklyn, Detroit and Denver. The key is that none of those four would be playoff teams as of today. Four of the five losses have come to teams that would be in the postseason if it got underway today. Now, the Lakers are definitely not going to be a playoff team this year, but they've been playing well since the Break. In fact, their second half record is better than the Cavaliers' at 6-2 SU. They just lost in Denver Friday night, a tough place to play, and lost by nine as eight-point dogs. It was the Lakers' largest margin of defeat though since a loss at New Orleans on 2.14. After scoring 115+ points, LA is 10-5 ATS this season and they do have a winning home record. 

Adding to Cleveland's ATS woes is an 0-7 mark against the Pacific Division. Overall, they have a losing record against the Western Conference this season. Already w/o Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson, the Cavs lost two more regulars - Rodney Hood and Cedi Osman - to injury on Friday. Neither will play here and Kyle Korver is questionable as well! Save for some historically great LeBron James performance, I don't see how the Cavs win here. The Lakers have not been a bad team over the last three weeks. 10* LA Lakers

8* Dallas (7:05 ET): Houston saw its 17-game run come to an end Friday night in Toronto. I remember that result well, not just because a huge win streak was ended, but due to the fact I was on the Raptors, who I felt provided extraordinary value as a home dog. Now the Rockets are back on the court Sunday and laying a huge number on the road. Because of that win streak, the Rockets figure to be overvalued for awhile and that's clearly the case here. Dallas isn't a good team by any means, but they're better than their record and just won by 34 pts here at home last night. Though they're the ones playing the second night of a back to back, I'd argue the situation is still better for them as both games are at home while Houston is having to travel all the way from Canada w/ just one day in between games. This is also the Rockets' fourth road game in six nights. Take the points.

The Mavericks definitely had a scheduling advantage over last night's opponent, not that they needed it though w/ the team in question being Memphis, who have now lost 17 in a row. The Grizzlies were playing the second of back to back road games while the Mavs hadn't played since upsetting Denver on this floor back on Wednesday. I was on them in that upset as well as they won 118-107 (were +6.5) thanks to a hot shooting second half. Thanks to all the time off, I'm not really concerned at all about this being the second game of a B2B, plus it will be Dallas' fourth consecutive home game. 

Taking advantage of their massive edge in rest, the Mavs jumped out to a 31-13 lead on Memphis last night and never looked back. They allowed only 30 pts in the first half, their best defensive effort in any half this season. Meanwhile, the final score may show Houston lost by only three at Toronto Friday night, but they trailed by as many as 19 in the 1st half. James Harden scored 40 pts, but is officially listed as questionable for tonight (sore left knee), so I really can't understand why the Rockets would be favored by this many. The Mavs may have the same exact record as the Sacramento Kings, but the notion those teams are equally as bad is pretty ludicrous as Dallas' point differential is nowhere near as bad. In fact, Dallas is only being outscored by 2.2 PPG on the season. Despite a 14-21 SU record at home, they've actually outscored opponents here. With or without Harden, the Rockets won't cover tonight. 8* Dallas

10* Pennsylvania (12:00 ET): I made a bet bet against Penn Saturday afternoon, completing underestimating the power of their homecourt advantage in this Ivy League Tournament. The Quakers absolutely rolled Yale, winning 80-57 as five-point favorites (in fairness, I wasn't the only one. The line was bet down a couple points before tipoff.) Now, we get the matchup the Ivy League brass was looking for as the top two seeds, Penn and Harvard square off to determine who will move onto the NCAA Tournament. We've seen a lot of upsets in the last 48 hours w/ so-called "bid-thieves" winning their conference tourney. But w/ the Ivy, it should come as no surprise that we have the top two teams in the final. It's only a four-team tournament and one of the co-regular season champs is playing on its home floor. I underestimated that factor for Penn yday, but won't make the same mistake again today. Lay the points. 

Penn and Harvard split the two regular season matchups, each side winning at home. First, it was Harvard's turn in a 76-67 victory on February 10th. But then Penn got some revenge w/ a 74-71 win two weeks later. Note that the Quakers were four-point favorites when they hosted Harvard, so there's some value when you compare that to today's line. Penn is now 12-3 SU this season at The Palestra while outscoring its visitors by 13.7 PPG. They are 9-1 SU as a home favorite. They never trailed on Saturday, took a 19-point lead into halftime and never looked back. They held Yale to only 32.8% shooting from the field.

Likewise, Harvard had no problems beating Cornell on Saturday. The Crimson won 74-55 (as 5.5-pt chalk), but interestingly there was no massive disparity in FG% like there was in the Yale-Penn game. Harvard didn't pull away until the second half and it boiled down to them dominating the glass (leading to 11 more FGA for them) and the three-point line where Harvard had a big edge. Again, I made a bad error in judgement, underrating the Quakers' homecourt advantage yesterday. I won't make the same mistake twice as they certainly appear to be undervalued in Sunday's Final. 10* Pennsylvania

10* Orlando (10:35 ET): The Magic aren't a good team by any stretch of the imagination, but this is far too many points for the Clippers to be laying in the second night of a back to back, especially after last night being a big win over Cleveland. I can see the Clips coming out very disinterested here, which is obviously what you want from the favorite when playing on a double-digit dog. Consider that when these teams met back in December, LA was only a 1.5-pt favorite. While Blake Griffin was still on the roster back then, he didn't play. Now that was also before the "bottom dropped out" for Orlando as they were only 11-17 SU going into that game and now are 20-46 SU. Still though, this is too many points to lay in a B2B.

The Magic are also in a B2B as they were involved in one of the ugliest NBA games of the season last night, losing to sorry Sacramento 94-88. It speaks volumes that you are a dog to the Kings when they are down two starters. That said, the Magic were playing their first game w/o Evan Fournier (torn MCL) and Aaron Gordon didn't play either due to a concussion. Those are the team's top two scorers, so it's a real "rogue's gallery" that Frank Vogel is trotting onto the court these days. Still though, I see value in taking the points tonight. The Clippers are only 2-8 SU this season when playing w/o rest.

You won't find the Clippers laying double digits all that often, especially post-Griffin. In fact, they've been a double digit DOG more times this season than they have a fave (by a count of 6 to 2). The last time the latter situation occurred was back on November 1st vs. Dallas. Orlando just played here at Staples Center on Wednesday when they suffered a controversial, one-point loss to the Lakers. Later, it was determined by the league that the Magic should have gotten a "re-do" of the final play. Yes, this is a third road game out West in four nights. But the Magic only lost the previous two by a total of seven points. They are also 6-1 ATS the last seven times they've been double digit dogs! Hold your nose and take the points as the favorite is unlikely to match last night's intensity and thus comes in way overvalued. 10* Orlando

10* Montana (8:00 ET): This is the Tournament Final in the Big Sky with the top seed Montana facing off w/ the "hottest" team in the conference, that being Eastern Washington. For over a decade, these have been the top two programs in the conference, so they are no strangers to one another nor meeting in this position. Eastern Washington has won eight in a row coming into tonight, covering the spread in all but one of those victories. But they got a break in the semifinals, drawing 10 seed Southern Utah, who upset the #2 seed Idaho the day before. That made for a relatively easy matchup for the Eagles, who won 82-70. Meanwhile, Montana's road here was far more precarious. They needed OT to get by Northern Colorado. But that sets up a strong value play here on the Golden Grizzlies, who also have revenge here. Lay the points. 

In the only regular season meeting between these two, Eastern Washington walked away victorious 74-65 as four-point home dogs. They shot 56.2% from the floor that day (Feb 15th). You can see the value though, as Montana is now laying fewer points at a neutral setting (Reno) than they were in Cheney. Granted, based on the earlier result, oddsmakers had to make some kind of adjustment. I just happen to feel that it is an overadjustment. Montana has been favored in every Big Sky game this season. They are clearly the best team the league has to offer.

That said, the Golden Grizzlies are lucky to be here. They trailed Northern Colorado most of the way last night and were down six w/ just over a minute to go in regulation. The problem they had in that game was the three-point line. Northern Colorado was 7 of 11 from behind the arc while Montana attempted only six three-pointers and made just one (in a game that went to OT!). Note in the regular season matchup with EWU, the Golden Grizzlies attempted 22 three-pointers (made only six). They are admittedly not a great three-pt shooting team, but they do make over 50% of their two-point attempts. Eastern Washington has won only three of the 13 games it has been an underdog this season, two of those coming during the last month. I just can't see Montana slipping up here. 10* Montana

8* Yale (3:00 ET): For the life of me, I can't understand why this line is so high. These teams just met last week, in the second-to-last regular season game for both, and it was Yale prevailing 80-79 as 2.5-pt home dogs. Again, that was clearly a bad line, so I'm not sure why the oddsmakers haven't really adjusted at all for this season's third meeting. Now Penn did win the first meeting, 59-50 as 5.5-pt home chalk, and they are the Ivy League Tournament hosts here as the smallest conference tournament in the country takes place at The Palestra this weekend. But even still, I believe the value is on the dog here in this second of two semifinals today in the Ivy League. Take the points. 

Only the top four teams in the Ivy League qualify for the postseason tournament and this is the #2 vs. #3 seed matchup. Penn tied for Harvard for the regular season crown and had the far better overall record, but is the #2 seed due to a tiebreaker that involved beating Yale. Because Harvard swept Yale and Penn split w/ them, it was Harvard that got the top spot. So, you can definitely say Yake cost Penn the top seed last week. The Bulldogs were somehow able to win despite shooting significantly worse than the Quakers, particularly from three-point range. It's actually pretty impressive that they were able to take the game considering the respective shooting percentages. Yale should shoot much better today while Penn is due for a decline from Saturday's regular season finale vs. Brown where they shot 56.1% overall and 11 of 18 from three-point range. 

Yale comes into the tournament having won and covered four straight. They ended their regular season w/ a 94-90 overtime win over Princeton on Saturday. Three of the wins during the four-game streak have come by four points or fewer. Still, you have to tip your cap to the Bulldogs this season for persevering w/o Makai Mason. They've actually won seven of eight w/ the only loss occurring at Harvard. Yes, it's a big break for Penn that this weekend's games are being contested on their home floor. But they are only 2-6 ATS this season when facing a team that has a winning record. I do not see the Quakers covering the spread in this one. 8* Yale 

10* Toledo (9:00 ET): This is yet another instance of me going w/ a team that has double revenge from the regular season. Yesterday afternoon, this worked out quite well w/ Kansas beating Oklahoma State and there have been several other successful plays earlier in the week. My latest comes from the MAC Tournament where in the second semifinal matchup, Toledo is out for revenge against Eastern Michigan. The Rockets lost both regular season matchups, by six up in Ypsilanti back in late February (85-79, +2.5) and by two in the regular season finale (71-69, -5) at home. I'm sure the players (especially the seniors) haven't forgotten about what happend last week and I'm on the avenging team. 

Toledo did not cover in yesterday's quarterfinal win over Miami (OH). In fact, they barely won. It was a 71-69 final and Miami had a shot to win at the end. However, the Rockets did lead by as many as 12 in the second half. The key was their leading scorer and MAC Player of the Year Tre'Shaun Fletcher leaving w/ a leg/knee injury. Fletcher is currently listed as probable to play tonight and given the circumstance (win or go home!), you have to assume he will be out on the floor. If for some reason he is not (again, I expect he will), we'll then get an inflated line. Note that Fletcher actually played one of his worst games of the season the last time these teams met (9 pts on 3 of 10 shooting) and Toledo still almost won. That game was decided on a three-pointer made by Eastern Michigan's Paul Jackson w/ 8.8 seconds remaining. 

Eastern Michigan would appear to be the "hotter" team coming into tonight as they've won seven in a row, covering the spread in each of the last six. Last night saw a solid defensive performance in a 67-58 win over Akron as six-point chalk. However, be aware that the Eagles trailed by nine at halftime and by as many as 14 in the 2H. They then went on a game-changing 28-4 run to beat the Zips for the first time in six tries in MAC Tourney play. Akron was held w/o a single made basket for the final 6:38 of the game. Simply put, I do not believe that scenario is repeatable here. Also, let's put these teams' respective seasons into some context. Eastern Michigan was only 5-7 SU in MAC play before their current win streak began. Toledo was right behind Buffalo for the top spot most of the season before taking three of its five league losses over the last month. They are the better team, which is not properly reflected by this line. 10* Toledo

8* Memphis (8:05 ET): Welp. There's really no way to sugarcoat how bad things are in Memphis right now where the Grizzlies have lost 15 in a row and sunk to the bottom of the Western Conference standings (18-46 SU). I don't think they are the worst team in the league necessarily (that dubious distinction goes to either Sacramento or Phoenix), even taking into account this horrid stretch of losing. Perhaps it's "grasping for straws," but each of the last five defeats have "only" been by single digits, including a two-point loss at San Antonio Monday. That was followed w/ a nine-point loss at Chicago. But now, at least the Grizz are back home where they're a more respectable 13-20 SU (-2.8 PPG) as opposed to a woeful 5-26 SU mark (-6.7 PPG). Take the points.

Truthfully, this isn't so much any kind of endorsement of the Grizzlies, but rather a repudiation of the Jazz in this price range. There is no denying Utah has been a hot team over the last month as they've won 16 of their last 18 games. But still, they're only tied for ninth in the West (w/ Denver), percentage points back of the Clippers for that coveted eighth and final playoff spot. I did take them earlier in the week, but that was at home against a bad Orlando team. That was followed up w/ a very impressive 20-pt win at Indiana. But now we've reached a point where they've become overvalued. Granted, Memphis probably isn't even as good as Orlando right now. But consider the Grizz are getting basically the same number of points here at home that the Magic were on the road Monday. That doesn't seem right.

I am a little concerned w/ how many points Memphis is going to score here as Utah has been able to five of its last six opponents to 96 pts or less. The Grizzlies are one of only two teams in the league (Sacramento is the other) NOT averaging 100 PPG (they're at 99.1). But Memphis can play defense too. They are allowing just 103.8 PPG. I think the real key here is the pace of the game, which figures to be "sloth-like" considering you've got two of the bottom four teams in adjusted tempo. That right there lends itself to taking the points. Sure enough, Utah is not a road favorite of this size very often. This will be the most points they've laid on the road all season and just the fourth time they've been a road favorite of six points or more. The previous three instances have seem them: lose outright and win the other two by only four and seven points. 8* Memphis

10* Toronto (7:35 ET): What a showdown we have here. On one side, you have the Rockets, winners of 17 in a row and the owners of the best overall record in the league (one-half game ahead of Golden State). So, laying a short number, it's hard to argue w/ them being the "public" side here. However, in "the other corner," you have a Toronto team that has won six in a row and has a very similar overall per game point differential compared to Houston (+8.9 vs. +8.6). But the key here is where the game is taking place. It's "North of the Border" and the Raptors are the best home team in the sport this season, owning a 27-5 SU record w/ a +11.8 point per game differential. This will be just the third time all season that Toronto has been a home dog. They are 2-0 ATS in the role so far. So forget about any perceived "value" on the Rockets; the true value here is on the Raptors. 

The situation also isn't great for Houston, who will be playing its third road game in four nights. Wednesday, they beat Milwaukee 110-99, which is impressive considering the Rockets were off a win in OKC the previous night. Five of their previous seven wins have been by double digits. Five of the seven wins have also come on the road. But as hot as Houston is right now (and there's no denying how well they're playing), I just don't agree w/ them being the favorite here. They are just 1-8 ATS vs. the Atlantic Division this season, including an outright loss (at home) to these Raptors, 129-113, back on November 14th. 

Houston is 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency while Toronto is 4th. But the Raptors have the edge defensively, ranking 3rd in efficiency while the Rockets are 10th. Yes, Toronto did need overtime and 42 pts from DeMar DeRozan to get by Detroit (on the road) Wednesday night. But I've been impressed w/ how the Raptors have continued to win despite being held below their scoring average in regulation each of the last four games. As an underdog, the Raptors are 8-3 ATS this season. I like them in this battle of conference leaders that is a legit potential NBA Finals preview. The homecourt edge coupled w/ Houston's schedule, and the fact the Raptors are getting points, is simply too good to pass up. 10* Toronto

8* St. Joseph's (2:30 ET): Twice these teams met in the regular season and both times George Mason pulled an upset. The first time was in Fairfax w/ the Patriots winning 81-79 as four-point pups. Then in Philly, they won 79-76 as seven-point pups. Going back to last season, they've actually now upset the Hawks three straight times as the lone meeting in 2017 saw the Patriots prevail (again in Philly), 75-67 as four-point pups. But in addition to getting some nice line value on the favorite here (especially compared to 1st meeting when St. Joe's was a four-point favorite on the road), GMU finds itself at a distinct disadvantage as the lower seed because they had to play yday while the Hawks did not. Lay the points here.

I just can't see George Mason pulling a third upset here. There really hasn't been an upset in the A-10 Tourney so far, unless you want to count 13-seed UMass beating 12-seed LaSalle in the opening round. The top eight seeds have all advanced to the quarterfinals, with the top four (St. Joe's counted among them) all getting double byes to this point. Now many of the games have been close here in D.C. Case in point, George Mason won by only five yday, although they were only 1.5-pt favorites. The keys were FT shooting and second chance points as the Patriots did not make a field goal in the game's final four minutes and were outshot, 53.2% to 35.9%. Really, it's game - that on paper - they "should have" lost. But sinking 28 of 31 free throws plus converting 20 offensive rebounds into 26 points was huge. Note that while the Patriots come into this game having won four of five, all four wins were by five points or less.

Meanwhile, St. Joe's has been off for nearly a week and ended its regular season on a three-game SU and ATS win streak. We last saw the Hawks winning at home over LaSalle, 78-70 as 3.5-pt home chalk. But, by far, the most notable thing on their resume was their 30-point beatdown of A-10 regular season champ Rhode Island (on the road!) the game before LaSalle. That right there tells me this is a team to be feared (a win here sets up another game vs. URI potentially). I think it speaks volumes GMU was only a 1.5-pt fave over the 13-seed yday. The Hawks have covered three straight times when playing w/ 5 or 6 days rest. 8* St. Joseph's

8* Louisiana Tech (9:30 ET): I know the Bulldogs had to win last night (beat North Texas 68-62 as 3.5-pt favorites) and thus face an "uphill climb" here against second seeded Old Dominion in the C-USA tournament. However, this is a lot of points. They were only a 2.5-pt home dog to the Monarchs when they dropped the lone regular season meeting, albeit by a score of 82-69. ODU shot a pretty ridiculous 56.6% from the field that day, also knocking down 10 of the 20 three-point attempts they took. I do not anticipate that kind of offensive efficiency here. ODU is a hot team entering this tournament (won 8 of 9), but they really haven't played anyone of any real substance during that stretch. They're overvalued and I'll take the points.

Note that despite being the lower seed yday, Louisiana Tech didn't really "upset" North Texas, at least in the eyes of the oddsmakers as they were installed as favorites. The Bulldogs went into halftime w/ a four point lead and never trailed in the second half. What was the key? Nothing in particuar, honestly, although some good free throw shooting late put the game out of reach. It was also the fewest points the Bulldogs allowed in a game since a 73-60 win over UAB back on February 15th. In between those two wins, they did lose four straight, but three of those games were on the road and the other was to regular season champ Middle Tennessee. It goes w/o saying that the Bulldogs are playing w/ "house money" here. 

As for ODU, despite finishing second in the regular season, they probably need to win the tournament this weekend to have any shot at the Big Dance. Don't be shocked if they are already looking ahead to a potential semifinal matchup w/ Western Kentucky, who destroyed them late in the regular season, 88-66. This being the last quarterfinal of the day is a break for La Tech, who played yesterday. Were it an earlier game, I might be less inclined to take the points. But at the very worst, I sense the backdoor will open late in this game and don't discount that lookahead factor mentioned above. While ODU delivered multiple routs down the home stretch of the regular season, they also had four wins by exactly five points. I anticipate a close game here. 8* Louisiana Tech

10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): There has to be a real sense of urgency for the Thunder right now as they've lost B2B games to fellow Western Conference powerhouses and have fallen to 7th in the standings. There are four teams in the West that currently have win streaks of at least six games. Those are now the top four - Houston, Golden State, Portland and New Orleans. Then you have San Antonio and Minnnesota. So if the Thunder want to improve their playoff position (and I'm sure they do!), they have to turn things around in a hurry. Fortunately for this evening, they draw the lowly Suns at home. This should be the proverbial 'get well' spot for OKC. Lay the points.

Phoenix is very bad. They have the dubious distinction of owning the worst point differential in the league at -8.3 per game. Keep in mind that most teams they face aren't as good as the Thunder. Since the start of February, the Suns have dropped 13 of 14 games overall w/ the lone win coming at the expense of a Memphis team that has now lost its last 15 games. Defensively, the Suns have been a disaster. They give up the most PPG in the league (113.3) and are dead last in efficiency as well. The offensive numbers aren't that inspiring either. They average 104.7 PPG, but that's only because they play at a fast pace. They're actually 28th in offensive efficiency. Monday night saw them get buried in the second night of a back to back, losing 125-103 at Miami.

Going back to last year, the Thunder have had some curious struggles w/ the Suns. They'd actually lost three straight times to them, but that was before Saturday's 124-116 win in the desert. Note that the last four meetings have all taken place in Phoenix. Saturday saw them have to rally in the 4Q, but Russell Westbrook's 43 pts turned out to be the difference. Looking at the line from Saturday (it was OKC -7.5 on the road), it sure looks as if we're getting some value on them tonight. Yes, I know the Thunder are off B2B losses, but those were against two of the hottest teams in the league right now, Portland and Houston. This is a major drop in class and I look for OKC to be a lot better defensively tonight than they have been since the All-Star Break. 10* Oklahoma City

10* Kansas (2:30 ET): I absolutely love this matchup as the top-seeded Jayhawks come in not only w/ a case of double revenge, but also the advantage of a bye. Oklahoma State, who shockingly won both regular season matchups against the Jayhawks, had to win yday (over rival Oklahoma) just to get here. Kansas has been off since Saturday when they were humiliated down in Stillwater, losing 82-64 as 3.5-pt favorites. I can't see them losing to the Pokes for a second straight time, let alone a third time this season. Note this spread is nearly identical to what Bill Self's team was laying last weekend in Stillwater and now we're at a neutral setting. Lay the points. 

Oklahoma State is obviously fighting for its NCAA Tournament life right now. According to the "esteemed" Joe Lunardi, the Cowboys are among the "first four out" of the field of 68, but he also has Oklahoma among the last four "in." There is no denying that the Pokes are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have covered the number in five straight, winning four of the five straight up and the one loss was by a point at Texas. Last night, they led Oklahoma by as many as 16 pts despite not even shooting the ball relatively well. But this is obviously a very quick turnaround, something that puts them at a distinct disadvantage (which should be the case for the lower seed).

History is NOT on OSU's side here. Granted, they did become the first team to swep a regular season series from Kansas in the Bill Self era. But the last time the Jayhawks lost to the same opponent three times in the same season was 1983! Now KU didn't lead at all in the regular season finale and shot just 41.7% from the floor in what was their worst effort of the year. Consider that they shot 50% or better from the floor each of the L3 games, twice topping 60%. Yes, there is bad news in that they must open this Tournament w/o Udoka Azubuike, who sprained his knee in practice on Tuesday. With that news and the fact OK State swept the regular season series (and is a bubble team to boot), it's easy to understand why this spread is several points lower than it ought to be. Bottom line is there's a ton of value on Kansas though, who remember is fighting to be a #1 seed next week. 10* Kansas

8* Memphis (2:30 ET): Memphis basketball is seemingly NOT in a good place right now w/ rumors abound that Tubby Smith will be replaced as head coach in favor of famous alum Anfernee "Penny" Hardaway. Smith has hardly been a great fit here, but it is worth nothing that the Tigers are playing arguably their best basketball of the season for their embattled head coach. They closed the regular season by winning five of six and are the fifth seed in the American Conference Tournament. That's not a bad spot to be in considering there's only three NCAA Tourney teams in this league and Memphis can avoid all of them until the semifinals. This afternoon, they look to avenge that one loss over the last six games, as they face last place South Florida.

USF has won B2B games coming into this weekend's tournament in Orlando. How rare is that? Well, before the B2B wins, they stood at 1-15 SU in conference play. They snapped an eight-game losing streak when they stunned Memphis (on the road!) 75-51 as 13.5-point dogs exactly one week ago. Consider that Memphis went into that game off four consecutive outright wins as an underdog! So, what happened? Well, it was basically one big half for the Bulls (first) as they led wire to wire. Memphis turning the ball over 10 times in the 1H and shooting only 3 of 19 from three-point range certainly didn't help matters either. USF would then go on to upset slumping SMU, 65-54 as 8.5-pt dogs, on Sunday.

Needless to say, I do not see history repeating itself this week. USF simply isn't very good. They did have a three-game win streak back in December, but that was at the expense of three very bad teams, one of them a non-board team. This is the 1st time all season the Bulls have won and covered consecutive games. The two wins have seen them turn in their two best defensive efforts of the conference slate. I expect them to regress here. Yes, it's a little dangerous to endorse Memphis given the off the court turmoil, but they've scored 83 or more points in three of the last four games. They closed the regular season w/ a 90-70 thumping of East Carolina and can do the same to the only team that finished below ECU in the AAC standings. By the way, Memphis did go to South Florida and win earlier in the season, 86-74 as 8.5-pt chalk. We're laying a smaller price here at a neutral site. 8* Memphis

10* Under Pelicans/Kings (10:05 ET): Somebody break up the Pelicans! This team is on fire right now, having won nine in a row to climb up to fourth in the Western Conference (ahead of Minnesota, San Antonio and OKC!). They have an inferior YTD point differential compared to the teams they are competing w/ for seeding, but that hasn't mattered lately thanks to a string of high-scoring performances, including a 121-116 road win over the Clippers last night. Incredibly, the team has topped 120 points in all nine wins during the active streak, averaging an insane 126.1 PPG during that time. That level of scoring HAS to start coming down sooner or later and looking at tonight's dance partner, I see an Under being in the cards.

Given how much they've been scoring, it should not come as a shock to hear that NO has also gone Over in seven straight games. When it comes to scoring, they've been remarkably consistent since the All-Star Break, scoring in the 121-126 range all six games. Note, however, that two of those games did go into overtime. That would be the first two post-Break, wins over Miami and Milwaukee. Really, when you look at the schedule, it shouldn't come as a huge surprise that the Pelicans have been able to win nine in a row. They've been a dog four times, yes, but looking back those were clearly all "bad" lines. Certainly, I'm not going to argue w/ them being a road favorite tonight, given all Sacramento's woes. Furthermore, the total should be high considering the Pelicans are the ONLY team in the league to be scoring and allowing over 111 PPG this season.

But Sacramento's involvement here is what lends to a play on the Under. The Kings are 30th in the league in offensive efficiency and one of only two teams that don't average 100 PPG. Defensively, they're not good either, but even so their games average only 206.2 PPG. They've been held to 102 pts or less in four of the last five games, though they are off a rare win (beat the Knicks 102-99 on Sunday). By the way, that one game in the last five where the Kings managed to score more was an overtime game vs. Brooklyn. It was tied 100-100 at the end of regulation. So like New Orleans, recent scoring has been inflated by games going into OT. This O/U line just seems too high. 10* Under Pelicans/Kings

10* Ole Miss (9:30 ET): As a 7-seed, South Carolina made a somewhat improbable Final Four runs last year, although their defensive efficiency rating should have told you such a run was possible. This year, things aren't looking so good for Frank Martin's Gamecocks. Eight SEC teams are currently projected to be in the field of 68, yet USC isn't one of them as they finished just 7-11 SU in conference play. There has been success at the betting window (6-0 ATS L6), but much of it has come from the underdog role. Consider they lost three of those six straight games that they've covered in. In the 1st round of the SEC Tournament, the Gamecocks draw Ole Miss, who has "nothing to lose" and will have confidence from the fact they beat South Carolina in the lone regular season meeting between the two. Take the points. 

That win over South Carolina, 73-69 back on New Year's Eve, stands as one of the few highlights of the Rebels' 2018 season. They finished last in the conference (5-13 SU overall) and have dropped 10 of the last 11 overall. A majority of the recent defeats have been by double digits. However, they have beaten teams such as Missouri, Alabama and Florida, in addition to South Carolina. As bad as things have looked in Oxford, remember the Rebels finished only two games back of South Carolina in the SEC standings. Ole Miss had to endure a mid-season coaching change as well w/ Andy Kennedy stepping down and Tony Madlock taking over on an interim basis. That's never easy. Not only are the Rebels 1-10 SU their L11 games, they are also 1-10 ATS! Yet, it's curious that they'd still come in as such a short underdog. Ole Miss has won at least one SEC Tournament game five of the past seven seasons. 

I admit that the basis of this play is that both teams are unlikely to continue their respective ATS streaks moving forward. It's pretty rare that we see such polar opposite streaks coincide at the betting window. Ole Miss actually was favored, albeit at home, in that regular season meeting. Note tonight marks only the fourth time in the past 16 games that South Carolina has been favored. There will be no Final Four run this year in Columbia as the Gamecocks seem poised to suffer an embarrassing upset tonight. 10* Ole Miss

8* Florida State (12:00 ET): This is a key matchup for both teams as a loss could prove extremely detrimental to the respective NCAA Tournament cases. Louisville, which has had to endure a horrendous year off the court, comes in at 19-12 SU overall and has dropped four of five. As of yday, they were considered "the first four out" among bracketologists. Florida State is in a slightly better spot as they're a "consensus" 9-seed right now, which makes you think it would take a lot of "bid theives" to knock them from the field of 68. Still, same as Louisville, the 'Noles don't want to lose in this spot. These teams split two regular season matchups, each winning on the other's floor. So what is the key in a matchup that seems so even? Well, it's all about recent form. 

Now, FSU hasn't exactly been "firing on all cylinders" itself these past few weeks as they've dropped four of seven themselves. In their last two victories, they had to rally both times and that was against Boston College and Pitt, two of the ACC's worst teams. The Seminoles have not been strong at the betting window down the stretch as they come into the Conference Tournament on a 0-6-1 ATS run. (That push occurred in the reg season finale vs. BC). But interestingly enough, the 'Noles last cover came back when they went to Louisville and upset the Cardinals (were 3-pt underdogs), 80-76. In both matchups w/ Louisville, FSU was able to dominate the boards and that's what I anticipate happening again in this rubber match. 

Louisville had to play North Carolina, Duke and Virginia down the stretch, losing to all three, w/ the home loss to UVA being the most infamous and painful. Once upon a time, this team was sitting pretty at 10-2 SU, but they've basically been a .500 team ever since w/ no true impressive victories. Perhaps the scandal that has engulfed the program has finally gotten the players. But whatever the reason for the late season swoon, it seems irreversible at this point. They've given up an average of 77.2 PPG their L5 contests and Florida State comes in averaging 82.0 PPG itself. Note that in Louisville's win over FSU, they trailed by as many as 17 points. The Seminoles' ability to get to the FT line may ultimately end up being the difference in this one. 8* Florida State

10* Portland State (11:05 ET): Handicapping this game reminds me a bit of a matchup I had my eyes on last night (but did not play) between Ohio and Miami, out in the MAC. There the favorite was playing w/ double revenge and got the easy cover as a favorite. Now the RedHawks weren't favored by quite as much as Portland State is here, and they were playing at home w/ immediate revenge as Ohio had come in and beaten them in the reg season finale. But, nevertheless, I think the comparison stands. Portland State has double revenge here, which is something no team should really ever have against Sacramento State. I look for the Vikings to win in a rout tonight as the third time will be the charm. Lay the points. 

Sacramento State has won just ONE game away from home all season (1-17 SU overall). That was at Portland State back on January 27th as they pulled off a somewhat improbable 71-61 victory as 11.5-pt dogs. As alluded to earlier, they also beat Portland State at home, 80-75 as 8.5-pt home dogs. Given that they were getting 8.5 pts at home against this same opponent, it sure looks like there's some real value on the other side in this neutral setting (Reno). Sacramento State finished the regular season w/ another upset, this time over Northern Colorado, but the record is still only 7-24 SU overall and 4-14 SU vs. conference opponents. The Hornets have never won B2B games this season and were winless in February. The win over Northern Colorado last Saturday snapped a nine-game losing skid. 

Portland State finished sixth in the Big Sky standings, thanks to a tiebreaker over Idaho State. The Vikings aren't going to look past this opening round matchup, given what happened in the regular season. This is a high-scoring team, one that averages an impressive 86.8 PPG, third most in the entire country. Sacramento State is averaging only 67.4 PPG. Yet somehow they shot better than 60% from the floor in the first meeting w/ Portland State. Even more shocking though was PSU only shooting 34.4% in the rematch and finishing w/ only 61 pts. The Vikings were a combined 13 of 49 from three-point range in the two games, a percentage they should improve upon exponentially here. I'm expecting a rout tonight. 10* Portland State

8* Dallas (8:35 ET): Denver sure caught me by surprise when they went into Cleveland Saturday and came away w/ an impressive looking 126-117 victory. It's not that beating the Cavs is all that irregular these days, but the Nuggets were playing their third game in four nights and second of a back to back. They've now gotten to enjoy the last two days off (will host Cleveland tomm night), but finish up the road trip tonight in Dallas. Obviously, it's been a tumultuous time for the Mavericks. Mark Cuban advocating tanking, front office misbehavior and a 19-45 overall record are just some of the lowlights of this season. They've lost seven of eight w/ a 1-5 SU mark since the All-Star Break. But they are 3-0 ATS vs. Denver this year and I think a good value plus the points tonight. 

Denver's only previous venture into Big D this season resulted in a 17-point loss. That was all the way back in December. They twice hosted the Mavs in January and while they won both times, it was by a combined five points and they failed to cover each time. Therefore, this line looks a bit high to me and you have to figure the public is going to be all over the short road favorite. But Denver is only 4-7 ATS as road chalk this season. Offensively, they have been on fire of late, but the Mavs are known to play at one of the league's slowest paces and I believe can slow the game down enough to where taking the points is the smart option here. 

Denver has won four straight on the road coming into tonight, something they had not done since December of 2013. Two of the wins were against Phoenix and Memphis, however. Defense is another issue we should talk about as not only have the Nuggets given up an average of 115.8 points the last five games, they are giving up 109.9 PPG for the season. Given that they are being outscored by four points per game away from home and playing their fourth game in seven nights, fading makes a ton of sense. I've said this before, but Dallas has played better than its record shows as they're only being outscored by 2.9 PPG for the year. Prior to winning the last four, Denver was just 7-19 SU on the road this season. 8* Dallas 

8* Utah (9:05 ET): Utah went into the All-Star Break as the hottest team in the league as they had won 11 straight games. However, that win streak didn't even allow them to crack the top eight in the Western Conference! Entering tonight, they are still in 10th place, but now trail 8th place Denver by only two games. That's despite having now won 14 of the last 16 games. I had them as a big play Friday night (*10* Game of the Week) over Minnesota and they responded in kind by covering the spread. However, they failed to do so Saturday in a 98-91 win at Sacramento. It's another big number tonight, but one that's certainly justifiable as Orlando comes to town. The Magic have won B2B games for just the second time since November. Lay the points.

Orlando has beaten Detroit (in OT) and Memphis (lousy) the last two games. Both were at home. Both were close games. Obviously, the game vs. the Pistons was as it went into overtime. But note the Magic actually trailed in the game, by seven points, w/ fewer than five minutes to go in regulation. Against Memphis, the game was tied w/ 22.5 seconds remaining, so bettors should definitely have felt fortunate to walk away w/ a push there. Prior to winning the last two games, Orlando had lost seven in a row. This is a team w/ just two road wins since X-Mas and they're 7-25 SU for the year away from home and giving up over 111 PPG. When they hosted Utah back in November, it was an ugly affair w/ the Jazz coming in and winning by FORTY as six-point underdogs. Clearly, the two teams have gone off in very different directions since then. 

Utah does it w/ defense as they've held three of their previous four opponents under 100 pts. Here at home, they are allowing just 98.5 PPG for the season. In the aforementioned thrashing of Orlando that took place back in November, they held the Magic to only 85 points on 38.3% shooting. Rudy Gobert has been the key here and in the last two games he's gone for a combined 42 points, 28 rebounds and seven blocks. Orlando has shot better than 50% in both of its recent wins, but that's unlikely to happen here as I see the Jazz rolling to another easy victory. 8* Utah

8* Gonzaga (9:00 ET): While the 'Zags have been exerting their usual dominance over the rest of the WCC (save for St. Mary's) this season, oddsmakers have had their way w/ them. Routinely facing double-digit spreads, often north of 20 pts, Gonzaga is a money-burning 7-12 ATS in conference play. That may not sound all that bad, but consider they opened by covering four of their first five. So that means they are just 3-11 ATS since and sure enough they failed to cover the spread in their first WCC Tourney game, an 83-69 triumph over Loyola Marymount (were -19). The spread is now lower though as they face San Francisco in the semifinals (winner plays BYU-St. Mary's winner). I'm going to lay the points here. 

We are getting what looks to be some really solid value here when you consider Gonzaga was a 14.5-pt choice AT San Francisco back on January 13th. The Zags won that game by only 10 pts, 75-65, which is what actually kickstarted this ATS slide. While that spread may have been too high and - clearly - so was the 18.5-pt number when they faced the Dons at home two weeks later (won 82-73), this one is a lot more manageable. Gonzaga shot 50% or better in both games vs. USF in the regular season and comes in averaging 84.7 PPG. I find it a little odd then that they failed to reach their scoring average in both matchups. San Francisco was able to slow the games down a bit, but they didn't get to the free throw line much either time. The Dons have lost 40 of the last 45 matchups vs. Gonzaga. 

San Francisco needed overtime to get here as they beat Pacific by one point, 71-70, in the quarterfinals. Not having to play the next day is a break, but the bottom line here is that the Dons are still outclassed. Sure, Gonzaga pretty much sleepwalked through the win over Loyola Marymount. They led by only one at halftime after turning the ball over seven times in the first 13 minutes. But after the break, the offense caught fire and was shooting 80% before garbage time. That shows me that the Bulldogs can pretty much "name the score" here and the key is that this is the lowest pointspread for any Gonzaga WCC game (save for St. Mary's or BYU) all season. 8* Gonzaga 

8* Detroit (7:05 ET): No way I'd want to lay this many points w/ Cleveland right now as the fact of the matter is this just may be a mediocre team. Truthfully, were it not for LeBron James on the roster, this is a team I'd be salivating to bet against in the first round of the playoffs. They've barely outscored the opposition this year, are 28th in defensive efficiency (ahead of only Sacramento & Phoenix) and probably most damning of all is their historically bad ATS record of 19-42-1, which includes an even worse mark of 10-37 when favored. Right before the All-Star Break, the front office shook up the roster big-time and wins over Boston and OKC seemed to indicate a corner had been turned. Not so fast, however. Since the Break, the Cavs have gone just 2-4 SU w/ the wins coming over Memphis and Brooklyn. All but one of the games took place here at home as well. Now they'll be w/o Tristan Thompson for "multiple games" due to an ankle injury. No thanks, Cleveland. I'll take the points. 

Now Detroit has its own issues right now w/ a big midseason trade apparently not working out. The Pistons have basically been on the fringes of the top eight (in the East) all season. When they went out and acquired Blake Griffin, everyone assumed that would put them over the hump. However, that has NOT been the case. While the ATS record isn't nearly as bad as Cleveland's, the Pistons have been bankrupting their backers of late w/ a horrendous 4-19 ATS mark their L23 games. They've opened March w/ B2B road losses, first at Orlando (OT) and them Miami (I played against them there). A third road game in four nights seemingly does them no favors on paper, but this is a matchup where I'm inclined to take the points regardless.

My own personal power rankings indicate that this line is about three points too high. The Cavs have no height whatsoever right now w/ Thompson and Kevin Love both out of the lineup. We'll see how well Larry Nance Jr pans out in a starting role. I'd been calling for Nance to play more, but this is a tough ask going against Andre Drummond, who has turned in 19 consecutive double-doubles, matching a Pistons' franchise record. Drummond had 21 pts and 22 rebounds in a 125-114 win over the Cavs back on Jan 30th. 8* Detroit 

8* Indiana (7:05 ET): Both of these teams played last night and won. But while the Pacers picked themselves up a nice road win, beating Washington 98-95 as 4-pt pups, Milwaukee was somewhat of an improbable winner at home against Phildelphia. The Bucks became just the second team in the last decade to overcome two seperate 15-point deficits and win the game, doing so 118-110 as a 1-pt dog. As you might expect, Giannis Antetokounmpo (he's back in the lineup) led the way w/ 34 points. The Bucks trailed in the 1st half and the 2nd half by as many as 19 pts, let the Sixers shoot 55.7% from the field (for the game!) and yet still found a way to win. Crazy!

These teams are no strangers to one another as they both reside in the Central Division and just met three days, in Milwaukee. Again, the Bucks found themselves down big at home as they trailed by as many as 17 in the contest. It was their fourth straight loss (SU and ATS) at the time, so had they not made the miraculous rally to beat Philly last night, we'd be looking at a five-game losing streak here. The team is also just 2-6 ATS its last eight games. Something I've noted before is that the Bucks have been outscored over the course of this season, so the fact they're five games above .500 is somewhat misleading. (Indiana is 4th in the East in point differential, trailing only Toronto, Boston and (barely) Philadelphia).

After a four-game road trip started out w/ losses to Dallas and Atlanta, beating both Milwaukee and Washington was huge for the Pacers. Yesterday's win jumped them past the Wizards for fourth place in the Eastern Conference. They were able to hold the Wiz below 100 pts and led by as many as 17 in the third quarter. So each of these teams' final scores from yday are a bit misleading. In Friday's win at Milwaukee, the Pacers not only led big, but also held the Bucks below 40% shooting for the game. At home, Indiana is obviously a much better team as they have gone 21-11 SU at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. They are also 17-8 SU their L25 games overall. Milwaukee was very fortunate yday in that Philadelphia turned the ball over 26 times, leading to 36 points. With both teams in the second game of a B2B, I'm taking the one at home and in far better form. 8* Indiana

10* Iona (7:00 ET): I've been closely following the MAAC Tourney where things were quickly thrown into chaos as the top three seeds were all eliminated in the quarterfinal round. That left Iona as the highest remaining seed and the Gaels struggled to advance yday, just getting by 9-seed St. Peters (who had just beaten top-seeded Rider) 65-62 as five-point chalk. The Gaels needed to rally from 10 points down at halftime after missing 10 consecutive field goal attempts. But they looked every bit the better team in the 2H, scoring 45 pts over the final 20 minutes. Their opponent in this Tournament Final is six-seed Fairfield, who comes in on a seven-game win streak. But the key is that the Stags were the favorite in all seven of those games. They aren't here and I have Iona getting the MAAC's auto bid to the NCAA Tournament. 

Fairfield ousted Quinnipiac yday, 74-64 as 3.5-point favorites. They were exceptionally proficient from the free throw line and turned it on defensively down the stretch, forcing the Bobcats to miss all but one of their final 11 FG attempts. But let's note that w/ the exception of the quarterfinal "upset" of 3rd seeded Niagara, the Stags have been feasting on the dregs of the MAAC during this run. Note I had the word upset in quotation marks in the last sentence and that's because the Stags were actually favored in that game vs. Niagara, so it really wasn't an upset despite being the lower seed. Fairfield's defense has been much improved during the win streak as the last five opponents have been held to roughly 11.3 points per game less than what they usually give up. 

Iona has the offense capable of reversing that trend, even though we haven't seen it so far in this tournament. The Gaels did not shoot well against either Manhattan or St. Peter's, but still come in averaging an impressive 79.7 points per game. I'm going out on a limb and calling for a breakout performance here. There certainly appears to be some line value here when you consider the Gaels were three-point favorites at Fairfield back on January 29th. They lost that game, 103-100 (in overtime), but also crushed the Stags at home earlier in the year by 19. Remember Fairfield had to play one more tourney game to get here. 10* Iona

8* Oakland (7:30 ET): All of a sudden, the "skies have opened" for Oakland in the Horizon League Tournament. The Golden Grizzlies were considered the preseason favorite to win this league, but were a major disappointment during the regular season, finishing only fourth in the standings. But the top seed in this tournament (Northern Kentucky) was eliminated in this tournament in shocking fashion last night (by Cleveland State!) and that makes the Golden Grizzlies path to the final a lot more manageable. Sure, second seeded Wright State is still alive on the other half of the bracket, but Oakland wouldn't have to worry about them until the Finals. The Grizzlies should be totally reinvigorated by yday's results and I expect them to roll today against IUPUI. Lay the points. 

IUPUI was probably like every other Horizon League team and happy to see Northern Kentucky go. But in the case of the Jaguars, the "selfishness" was quite tangible as they were crushed (at home) by NKU in the reg season finale, 75-56 last Sunday. That win had snapped a three-game win streak, all of the victories coming from the underdog role. One was against Oakland, at home, 74-67 as 5.5-pt home dogs. IUUPI covered both regular season matchups as they only lost by eight back on February 4th (were +12.5). Certainly, I agree there needs to be some sort of adjustment from the oddsmakers for this rubber match, but I think it's gone too far and there's significant value on Oakland this time. The Golden Grizzlies couldn't buy a field goal in that last meeting as they missed 23 of 31 three-point attempts and shot just 34.8% overall. Certainly, they'll be more prolific offensively tonight (they average 79.8 PPG). 

Oakland has not been good at the betting window this year, which is a reflection of them failing to match expectations. They were just 4-14 ATS vs. the rest of the Horizon League this season and 5-16 ATS for the season as a favorite. But fortunate for them is that IUPUI won just twice away from home all season. I think it speaks volumes that Oakland was favored in all but one Horizon League game and that was when they visited Northern Kentucky, a game that they won going away, 83-70 (+6.5). Trust me when I say that Oakland is your new favorite to win the Horizon League Tourney. 8* Oakland

10* Purdue (4:30 ET): There is no denying that Michigan is the "hot" team right now in College Basketball, but beating Michigan State and Purdue on consecutive days is something that probably no team is capable of, not even one that comes into today riding an eight-game win streak. Granted, the Wolverines played Purdue tough TWICE during the regular season, losing by only 1 and 4 pts respectively. But that combined w/ yday's results have conspired to drive this down further than it ought to be. Purdue is on my short list of possible NCAA Tournament winners and I actually like the fact that they come in having struggled at the betting window the last month or so, as it means they'll be undervalued. Lay the points.

You probably know what Michigan did yday. They upset top-seeded Michigan State, 75-64 as five-point underdogs, which really suprised me. Yes, the Wolverines were coming off an impressive blowout win over Nebraska (by 19) the day before, but what about the fact they needed OT to get by lowly Iowa on Thursday? This is now the Maize and Blue's fourth game in four days and that is likely to catch up w/ them. Meanwhile, Purdue got a bye to the quarterfinals by virtue of being the #2 seed and has played only two games to get here. They did not cover against either Rutgers or Penn State, but remember those were two teams playing for their "NCAA Tournament lives" (no chance of at-large bid). 

Purdue has lost only five games all season, three of them coming in February, all of which were close. All three losses were by four points or less, by a combined margin of eight and two were in the road. Note that when the Boilermakers hosted the Wolverines back in January, they were 11-pt favorites. That spread was too high in retrospect, but even after factoring out the homecourt edge, the oddsmakers have overadjusted here IMO. Purdue is quite underrated offensively as they are #2 in the nation in efficiency (per KenPom), which has led to the third best scoring differential. You don't get a price this cheap on them too often and while they barely beat the Wolverines in both regular season meetings, I see the third time being the charm as far as ATS is concerned. 10* Purdue

10* Atlanta (3:35 ET): You won't find the Hawks favored very often and an endorsement from me in such as a situation is even more rare. But you can say that "the stars align" for Sunday afternoon's matchup w/ the lowly Suns. Here, Atlanta faces a team in even worse shape than they are in and the gap between the two is actually a lot more significant than you might think. Phoenix has been one of the worst teams in the league all season long, but ever since late January, things have gotten especially dire as they've lost 16 of the last 18 games. This isn't to say Atlanta is anything special (they're not as they've lost five of six), but you just won't find my opportunities like this one where you can lay so few points against the Suns.

Tonight will mark the end of a four-game homestand for the Hawks. They did win one of the games, beating Indiana 107-102 on Wednesday (as 4-pt dogs). They followed that up w/ a loss, but it came at the hands of the Warriors and the Hawks played them tough, losing only by five as 12.5-pt dogs. It was too bad as they shot 60% in the 1Q and made 15 three-pointers for the game. Kent Bazemore scored a season-high 29 points. But matching that production isn't necessary here as needless to say, it's a huge drop in class in terms of opponent from Friday to today. You've probably guessed that the Hawks aren't favored often and you're right as this will be just the 10th time all season. But they've been competitive at home (14-19 SU/18-15 ATS) and a shockingly good 16-6 ATS vs. the Western Conference.

Atlanta did lose out in Phoenix back in January, but only by a single point as one-point dogs. Since then, the bottom has dropped out for the Suns and it's pretty clear that it's either them or Sacramento that is the league's worst team this season. The Suns did win earlier this week, on the road no less, but that was against a Memphis team that has been every bit as bad (worse?) over the last month. This spread indicates that these teams are "even," but that is simply not the case despite them having the same # of wins (19). Phoenix has the worst point differential in the league (-8.6 PPG), which is nearly twice as bad as the Hawks' point differential. Atlanta is better on both ends of the floor and should win easily here. 10* Atlanta

10* Miami (7:35 ET): This was not a great spot to begin w/ for Detroit, but losing in overtime last night (to Orlando, no less!) probably makes it even worse. When the Pistons made the trade for Blake Griffin, it was thought that would put them "over the top" in their quest to make the playoffs. It hasn't really played out that way, however. They come into Saturday trailing the Heat by three full games for the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference. They've also been an outright disaster at the betting window, going an abhorrent 4-18 ATS their last 22 games overall. Tonight marks their third game in four nights plus fifth in the last seven. I'm going against them and laying the points. 

Miami will not be lacking for motivation here after shockingly giving up 131 points to the Lakers here at home on Thursday. That was their 9th loss in the last 12 games overall. I figured this team was due for a bit of a "market correction" as their differential between actual and expected wins (based on YTD point differential) was among the widest gaps in the entire league. Thanks to the February swoon, that gap now isn't quite as large and their record is now more indicative of their overall level of play this season. While they have been outscored by opponents, I don't see them dropping B2B home games. This year has seen the Heat go a strong 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS when off a SU loss as a favorite. They are 25-11 ATS in that role the L3 seasons. Needless to say, it was a season-high in points allowed vs. the Lakers.

Given the recent schedule demands, including the OT game last night, I'm not sure how much the Pistons have left in the tank here. Let's not sugarcoat how bad it is to lose to Orlando at this juncture of the season. The Magic came into last night on a seven-game losing streak and trailed by seven in the final five minutes of regulation. That's a scenario where the Pistons HAVE to prevail. But they didn't and now they must deal w/ the consequences. They finished last night's game by missing 16 of their final 17 field goal attempts causing HC Stan Van Gundy to remove his entire starting five. Blake Griffin is 0 for 11 on three-point attempts the L4 games. Miami is a much better defensive team than what they showed Thursday and let's not discount what a bad road team Detroit is. The home team is 3-0 in the three head to head meetings between these teams this year. 10* Miami

8* Cleveland (7:35 ET): Going into the All-Star Break, it appeared as if the Cavs might have turned a corner. They shook up their roster w/ a series of bold trades and that led to very impressive road wins over Boston and Oklahoma City. However, since the Break, they've resumed their old inconsistencies, dropping three of five and the two wins came against bottom-feeders Brooklyn and Memphis. The Cavs' ATS record is beyond hideous at this point as they're now 19-41-1, easily a league-worst. Defense continues to be a concern though Thursday vs. Philadelphia, it was a poor offensive performance in the 2H that cost them. Tonight, they are at home again, this time vs. road-weary Denver. It's a must win.

This is not a good spot for the Nuggets, who will be playing a fourth game in six nights and the second of a back to back on the road. Last night, they beat Memphis 108-102, but failed to cover as nine-point favorites. Denver turned the ball over 24 times and scored only 17 pts in the 4Q, but still it was enough to beat a team that hasn't won a game since January 29th. Tonight will obviously be a far greater challenge and it seems as if the oddsmakers are finally starting to hold Cleveland "accountable" for its ATS woes. I would have imagined this spread would be a lot higher had the Cavs not lost to Philly on Thursday. Denver is not a good road team (10-19 SU) and getting this few points in a rough scheduling spot makes for a good fade, IMO.

Cleveland should get J.R. Smith back after he was suspended for the Sixers game for throwing soup (can't make it up!) at assistant coach Damon Jones. Smith is inconsistent, but the team definitely could have used him vs. Philly. LeBron James continues to be other-worldly (averaged a triple-double in February!), buy he clearly needs help. Personally, I'd like to see HC Ty Lue play Larry Nance, Jr more. The team has played much better w/ him on the floor since his arrival from LA. I have not taken the Cavs as a favorite many times this year, and for good reason as they're 10-36 ATS in that role! But as a short home fave against a tired visitor, they're worth the shot. Denver being a bad defensive team plays to the Cavs' strengths. 8* Cleveland

8* Ga Southern (5:00 ET): Louisiana (16-1 SU) ran away w/ the Sun Belt regular season crown this year, but there's still a tight battle going on for third between Georgia Southern and UT Arlington. The former leads by a half game coming into today's reg season finale and can actually finish in a second place tie thanks in large part to their opponent, Troy. The Trojans upset Georgia State on Thursday, 83-70 as 7.5-pt dogs. No matter what, Ga Southern will do no better than the third seed in the SBC Tournament as Georgia State has the tiebreaker. The Eagles have already beaten Troy on the road, 86-80 in a game the oddsmakers had as a pick 'em. Therefore, it would appear there's substantial value on them as a short home favorite today. Lay the points. 

Ga Southern is 9-3 SU at home this year, one of the losses coming to Louisiana and the other two by a combined three points. They average a healthy 83.7 PPG and have had no problems scoring recently as they are off B2B 81-pt efforts. They didn't even shoot particularly well Thursday vs. South Alabama, yet still basically led wire to wire. Not only are the Eagles trying to finish second in the SBC, but they're trying to avoid finishing fourth as UT-Arlington is just one-half game behind them after winning at the buzzer last night. The Sun Belt always has teams playing either twice at home or twice on the road in the weekly Thursday-Saturday schedule. This obviously tends to favor the home side in the second leg and sure enough Troy has yet to win a second leg this year (0-3 w/ two double digit losses). 

In the first meeting, neither side shot particularly well yet Ga Southern was able to emerge w/ a six-point road win even after trailing at halftime. They actually enjoyed an edge in FT attempts as the road team. It was actually the conference opener for both. Though over two months, I'm not sure a ton has changed for either side. Troy is trying to finish 5th in the standings, but that distinction means little as they're playing an opening round game regardless. Really, Ga Southern finishing third is the key here as they'd avoid a matchup w/ Louisiana until the finals. Troy did pull the upset Thursday, but that was w/ an incredible second half that won't be duplicated here. I just can't see them beating two of the top three teams in the SBC, both on the road, in a three-day span. 8* Ga Southern 

8* Portland State (4:00 ET): We head out to Big Sky country for this one where the fight for seeding in the conference tournament is still ongoing. Portland State stll can finish in sixth if they were to win here and Idaho State loses to reg season champ Montana (which is a good possibility). Granted, either way, the Vikings will be playing an opening round game, but getting a bottom two team as the first tournament opponent would certainly be ideal. These teams have not met this season, but Portland State still has double revenge on its mind from LY as they lost both meetings w/ North Dakota, including one in the conference tournament. Lay the points. 

On Senior Day, Portland State will be looking to bounce back from a home defeat to Northern Colorado. It was the Vikings' first regulation loss since falling to Montana back on Feb 8th. They had no answer for Andre Speight (scored 37 points), but were within one w/ just under two minutes remaining. While not a dominant home team per se, I don't see PSU dropping B2B games here to end the regular season. It's strange because the Vikings are 10-5 SU on the road this year, but only 7-5 SU at home. This despite the fact they are averaging 92.5 PPG at home! Now that number is somewhat skewed due to three wins over non-board teams. But still, this is a team that put up 106 pts in 25-pt road win over Cal earlier this year! They also beat Stanford. They lost by only on a neutral floor to Butler. The Vikings have the potential to be a dangerous sleeper next week in the Big Sky Tournament.

While Portland State is off a home loss, North Dakota is off a road win. They beat lousy Sacramento State 90-73 on Thursday as two-point underdogs. It speaks volumes that the Fighting Hawks would be underdogs to a Sacramento State team that is just 6-24 SU overall, even on the road. It was the Fighting Hawks' third win in the last four games, but the other two were both by five points or less, one of them in overtime. The Hawks have not been good on the road this year, going just 2-12 SU in "true" roadies and they're giving up an average of 90.1 PPG. That doesn't bode well when getting set to face an opponent that is #3 in the NATION in points per game. 8* Portland State

10* Florida State (2:00 ET): The Seminoles are looking to bounce back from crushing double-digit defeats at the hands of NC State and Clemson over the last week. Those losses really put a damper on the 'Noles' NCAA Tournament hopes. If you believe those in the "Bracketology game," then FSU is still likely to make the field of 68, but a third straight loss could change that and they also have to avoid an early exit in the ACC Tournament. Today marks not on the regular season finale, but it's Senior Day in Talahassee and a revenge game to boot. Boston College upset the 'Noles, 81-75 (+3.5) up in Chesnut Hill in late January. So there's a number of things that have conspired to drive the line down further than it ought to be. Lay the points. 

FSU is actually 0-6 ATS its last six games w/ four of those also being straight up defeats (three by double digits). But only one of the losses came here at home and that was by four to a very good Virginia team. Overall, the Seminoles are 12-2 SU in Talahassee and averaging an impressive 87.6 points per game. They are typically a good rebounding squad, but were outworked on the boards by Clemson Wednesday. Getting back to the revenge angle, the 'Noles are 4-1 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a road loss. Boston College has only three victories away from home this season and just two of them came in "true" road games.

B.C. is coming off an impressive 15-pt victory over Syracuse on Wednesday, but that was at home. That snapped an overall three-game losing streak. But not all the news was good as freshman forward Steffon Mitchell left w/ a hamstring injury and was on crutches after the game. I do not expect the Eagles to go 14 of 27 from behind the arc again like they did vs. Syracuse. It is Florida State that ranks in the top 25 in the country in offensive efficiency (per KenPom). B.C. has just one ACC road win this year and it came against last place Pitt. In the first meeting between these two, the Seminoles shot just 33% from the field, including a dreadful 5 of 26 from three-point range. Obviously, they'll be much improved on Saturday afternoon. 10* Florida State 

10* Utah (10:35 ET): Yes, this spread is slightly inflated due to the fact the T'wolves are going to be w/out Jimmy Butler. But you could have said the same thing last night for their game in Portland and not only did they lose there, 108-99, they also failed to cover as 5.5-pt dogs. Tonight's spot, playing w/o rest, is obviously much worse. Especially when you factor in that the Jazz have been off the last three days. Since the All-Star Break, Utah has dropped two of three here at home, losing to Portland and Houston. Remember - they went into the Break on an 11-game win streak! I'm laying the points here as I anticipate a blowout.

Playing w/o Butler, things started well enough for Minnesota last night in Portland. They held the Blazers to 25 percent shooting in the 1st quarter and 0 for 13 from three-point range in the first half. Damian Lillard missed his first seven shots and another Blazers' starter, Maurice Harkless, left the game due to injury (did not return) Yet, the T'wolves still found a way to lose. They led going into the fourth quarter and Portland shot less than 40% for the game. But things were decided in the fourth when the Blazers outscored them 33-21. Clearly, Minny is going to miss Butler, their leading scorer, who averages 22.2 PPG. They did win the first two games w/o him, but those came against Chicago and Sacramento, two of the worst teams in the league.

Utah is 19-11 SU at home this year, holding visitors to 97.9 PPG. They're well rested and due for offensive improvement after failing to score even 100 pts in any of the last three games. The key here is Minnesota ranks near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency (24th) and Butler was their best individual defender as well. As a road dog, the T'wolves are only 4-12 SU this season, losing by an average of 7.3 PPG. Keep in mind that virtually all of those games, save for last night, are w/ Butler in the lineup. They are also 0-2 SU in the second of back to back road games (no rest in between), losing by an average of over nine points per game. 10* Utah

8* Detroit (5:30 ET): Some major revenge here from the Titans persepective as they were humiliated in their home finale last Saturday, losing to Green Bay by a score of 107-97. They trailed 61-36 at halftime before making things look slightly more respectable by the final buzzer. Full disclosure - I was on Detroit last Saturday. I'm going to come back w/ them today in this 1st rd Horizon League Tourney matchup as the spot is good as is the price. Earlier in the week, my 1st Conf Tourney play was on a Robert Morris team playing w/ double revenge from the regular season and they won the rubber match outright (as a dog). I expect the same result here. Take the points.

Green Bay shot 56% from the floor last Saturday and made 13 three-pointers. At one point, they led by as many as 29 points. That's quite the embarrassing way to end the regular season if you're Detroit, especially considering they'd just lost by 23 (at home) in their previous game. At some point, pride has to kick in, no? The likelihood of Green Bay playing as well here as they did Saturday seems unlikely. While this is technically considered a "neutral site game," note the tournament is being played in Detroit (at Little Ceasar's Arena, home of the NBA's Pistons), so you do have to give the Titans a bit of a home court edge in handicapping this matchup. Green Bay had zero road wins before the final week of the regular season when they upset not only Detroit, but Oakland as well.

  Therefore, it's difficult to imagine the Phoenix winning three in a row away from home, right? Tonight marks just the fourth time all season that GB has won B2B games. They have gone 0-3 SU the next time out after the previous three times, meaning there's never been a single three-game win streak for them. Tonight marks just the SIXTH time all season that the Phoenix will be favored. Now, it's clear that Detroit has its own issues, but the Titans have to come in motivated here. They are the de facto host of this event, so that's something. Also, despite the last place finish in the regular season, I do NOT believe the Titans are the worst team in the Horizon League. (That dubious distinction will go to the loser of tonight's Cleveland St-Youngstown St matchup). 8* Detroit

8* UAB (8:00 ET): Here we find two teams jockeying for position in the upcoming Conference USA Tournament. Marshall is guaranteed a top five spot right now, but they'd obviously like to move up a spot considering the top four get 1st round byes. Right now, they are in fourth place (one game ahead of UTSA), so they'd obviously like to win out to preserve their current standing. Problem is the Thundering Herd's last two games are on the road where they are just 5-7 straight up and giving up 83.9 PPG. Tonight finds them at UAB, who is 12-3 SU at home where they outscore opponents by 14.4 PPG. Marshall is off a big win while UAB is off a big loss, which is what has created the value here in laying the points. I'm on the Blazers. 

Marshall pummelled Charlotte on Saturday, winning 103-75, but that's the last place team in the conference they were facing there. The Herd is closing the reg season strong w/ wins in six of the last seven contests, the lone loss coming at Old Dominion, which will prevent them from finishing any higher than fourth in the C-USA standings. Note that Marshall has done a great job at beating the teams that they "should" (15-2 SU as a favorite). But when not expected to prevail, the results aren't very good. They're just 2-7 SU as a dog. Something else that caught my eye when handicapping this game is the line from the first meeting. Marshall was only a one-point favoite when they beat UAB 86-78 back on January 20th. It stands to reason then that the line should be higher for tonight's rematch. (It opened low and we've already seen it get bet up). 

In that first meeting, it was the free throw line that burned UAB. Marshall went 18 for 18 at the charity stripe while UAB was a head-scratching 5 of 13! It's not as if the Blazers are a poor FT shooting team. For the year, they make a solid 74.8%. So I'm not sure what was going on that night. Also, the three-point line was huge in that outcome as Marshall went 14 of 37 from behind the arc while UAB was 7 of 23. Consider that the Thundering Herd were only 13 of 35, almost 33.3% on two-point attempts and still won the game! That won't happen again here, especially because the Blazers are allowing opponents to shoot only 40.3% overall this season and allowing just 63.0 PPG at home. Offensively, UAB had a horrendous shooting night at Middle Tennessee on Saturday. It was the third time in the last five games they shot below 36.5% from the field. But they came back and won after the previous two and will do that again here. 8* UAB

10* Under Lakers/Heat (7:35 ET): Whereas many of the league's bottom-feeders had terrible months, the Lakers had themselves a pretty nice February, going 7-3 straight up and 8-2 against the spread! They've won and covered three in a row, the last two coming as road favorites (although the opponents were Sacramento and Atlanta). Prior to January 5th, the team didn't have a single three-game win streak to its name this season, but they've done it four times since then. Overall, they're 15-7 SU the L22 games and tonight they go for their fourth four-game wins streak during that time. They'll be in Miami, facing a Heat team that pulled off a miracle on Tuesday, beating Philadelphia at the buzzer. While they failed to cover, the Heat had previously covered five in a row. Four of their last five games have been decided by three points or less.

When it comes to tonight's total, something had to give as you have a Lakers team that's been scoring a lot recently against a Heat team whose games are typically low scoring. The result is an O/U line somewhere "in the middle" of where we usually see Lakers and Heat totals. Now the Lakers have gone Over in six straight, which inflates a line that is already high from Miami's perspective. Over those L6 games, LA has averaged 118.5 PPG, well above their season average of 107.9 PPG. At the same time, they're also giving up an average of that is far higher than usual. The L6 games have seen them allow 117 PPG. While not a great defensive team, the Lakers are "only" allowing 109.9 PPG for the season. Sooner rather than later, these numbers are going to move back to season-long norms.

Miami has also been scoring and allowing more points per game than usual, of late. They only average 101.1 PPG for the year, but have been at 110.8 the L5 games. They only give up 101.6 PPG for the year, but have been at 106.6 the L5 games. Now those recent averages have been skewed by an overtime game against New Orleans on 2.23. Since then, they've played two games where 203 and 204 total pts were scored. The final game before the All-Star Break saw 206. The Heat are 7th in defensive efficiency and the Lakers are a surprising 11th, so look for this game to be lower scoring than expected. 10* Under Lakers/Heat

10* Charlotte U (7:30 ET): Let's get something out of the way, right off the bat. Charlotte is not a good team. All it takes to confirm that is quick perusal of the C-USA standings where you'll find the 49ers smack-dab at the bottom w/ a 1-15 SU record vs. league foes. They're also a pretty sad 5-22 SU overall. Their one C-USA win came all the way back on January 4th when a last second layup allowed them to defeat North Texas, 70-68 as 7.5-pt home underdogs. Since then, it's been 14 consecutive losses and counting. If they are to win another one, tonight looks to be the night as they are hosting a FIU team that isn't particularly good, yet is coming in off B2B victories (by a combined four points). This is a great spot to fade the road chalk.

Generally speaking, most of FIU's recent games have been close affairs. Only two of the last eight have been decided by more than six points and both were losses. Each of their last three wins have all come by three points or less and all three took place at home. The Panthers' last road win came all the way back on January 11th at UTSA and you guessed it, it was a three-point margin of victory. It's a little stunning to see this team as a road favorite, even as bad as Charlotte has been for much of 2018. The Panthers were road favorites one time previous to this and lost outright to Rice, who is 3-13 SU in C-USA play. They are only 2-8 SU in "true" road games all season. Only one time this year has FIU won three in a row and that streak included a win over a non-board team back in December. 

Charlotte was not competitive - at all - in a pair of losses last week as they lost by 38 and 28 to Marshall and Western Kentucky respectively. But at some point, pride has to kick in. This isn't the final home game (Saturday vs. FAU is), but I still expected a motivated home dog here. Note FIU did trail at the half in each of the last two wins. Charlotte's defense has been shredded by some of the top teams in C-USA recently, but I can't see FIU doing the same as they are a dreadful three-point shooting team (29.0% on the road!) and might be the worst FT shooting team in the entire country as well (59.3% for the year!). I look for the 49ers to "show up" this week, starting tonight. 10* Charlotte

8* Under Thunder/Mavs (8:35 ET): After a brief stop home (where they beat Orlando) Monday night, the Thunder are set to hit the road again for three more games, starting tonight w/ this stop in Dallas. OKC badly needed that win over the Magic as they were coming off a humbling 32-point defeat at the hands of Golden State. That was the end of another three-game trip, though it began before the All-Star Break. This is probably another "must win" as the Thunder currently are tied for sixth in the Western Conference, which is disappointing considering they have three All-Star caliber players on the roster. But this team has not been good at the pay window this year, thus I'll avoid laying the points. I like the Under instead. 

Dallas is not in a good place right now as owner Mark Cuban has been fined for admitting to tanking and the entire front office is trying to move past an ugly scandal rife w/ inappropriate behavor. Somehow the team did manage to beat Indiana here at home on Monday, 109-103, as 2.5-pt home underdogs. That snapped a four-game losing streak and was just the team's third win this month. But I wouldn't expect the good times to last very long here, even if you can proclaim the Mavs the best of the West's "bad teams." This isn't a very good offensive team, by the way, as they average only 102 PPG (27th in the league). But on the other end of the floor, I expect improvement tonight. The L5 games have seen them allow an average of 108.4 PPG. At home, at least they've been pretty solid defensively this year, giving up only 102.7 PPG. 

OKC will also play better defensively here than they did Monday. Orlando actually shot 56% in the 1H and went into the break w/ 62 points! But from there, the Thunder shut them down and was able to win 112-105. This is a top 10 team in defensive efficiency and typically they allow fewer points than what they've given up recently. The L2 meetings between these teams have gone very differently w/ one being high scoring and the other low scoring. Both were won by Dallas! Regardless, the totals for both of those games were substantially lower. The Mavs are 32-13 Under the L3 seasons coming off a SU win as a dog and have gone 9-3 Under their L12 games against teams w/ winning records. 8* Under Thunder/Mavs

10* Washington (8:05 ET): Given the circumstance (1st of B2B road games), the Wizards should be thrilled that they were able to go into Milwaukee last night and come away w/ a 107-104 win as three-point dogs. However, given how well they started that game, it almost feels like they lost Tuesday night. Before you knew it, the Wiz were up 40-22 at the end of the 1st quarter. But they had to hold on as on five different occasions, the Bucks cut the lead to one. But Washington never once conceded the lead and picked up a key Eastern Conference win, just two days after ending Philadelphia's seven-game win streak. Tonight is a much greater challenge, but getting this many points at home, the Wizards are the play here.

Golden State has won six of seven, including all three games since the All-Star Break. They were a double digit favorite in all three games. After not covering against the Clippers (won 134-127), they humbled the Thunder 112-80 on Saturday night before winning at New York, 125-111, Monday. Still the Dubs are facing a very legitimate challenge from the Rockets for the top spot in the West this year as they actually enter tonight one-game back. Favored in every game this season, Golden State doesn't have much of a dropoff when they hit the road, though their average margin of victory does fall slightly (by about three points) even w/ the WL record being nearly identical to what it is at home. Let's also not discount the potential "distraction" visiting the Nation's capital may have caused here as this was supposed to be the time when the Warriors visited the White House (elected not to, but did visit w/ several area childen instead). 

Washington is no pushover at home. They average 110.0 PPG at the Verizon Center and while they're a lousy 7-17 ATS when favored here, they are 4-1 SU/ATS as a home dog. Overall, they are 16-7 ATS when getting points this season. This is a team that's gone 8-3 SU and ATS in the month of February despite being w/o John Wall. The only reason that we are able to get this many points is because of the B2B situation and I don't think that's as big a deal as it normally might be considering how they were up big early last night and clearly took their "foot off the gas." If anything, they should be motivated by almost letting the game slip away. 10* Washington