8* Toronto (8:05 ET): The Raptors were limping (badly) before the All-Star Break, but picked up what I feel was a huge win in their last game, beating Charlotte 90-85. Maybe that doesn't sound all that impressive to you, but consider Toronto was down by 17 entering the fourth quarter and on a three-game losing streak. Tonight's nationally televised contests shapes up as a huge showdown in the Atlantic Division. The public perception is that Boston has surpassed Toronto as the top challenger to Cleveland in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics, in fact, do have a four-game lead in the standings. But the Raptors' net efficiency rating and point differential is better, which indicates this race is nowhere near over. Toronto is also 10-2 SU/ATS vs. division foes including a 2-1 mark vs. Boston. Lay the short number w/ the home team. 

In the month leading up to Break, Toronto went just 5-11 straight up. But they took an abnormal number of close losses. Six were by five pts or less and four were by two points or less! That's what made the rally against Charlotte so important. The Raptors are still 19-10 SU at home this year and outscoring their visitors by a healthy average of 8.5 points per game. One of the most efficient offenses in the league, they average 111.6 PPG at home this year. They also are averaging 113.1 PPG in division contests. This is a revenge spot as they lost in Boston on the 1st of February, 109-104. Previously though, they'd beaten them twice. Overall, they are 8-3 ATS their L11 games vs. the Celtics including 4-1 at home. 

Avery Bradley is still expected to be M.I.A. for Boston, which is a big deal. Yes, they won 11 of 13 going into the Break and last Thursday's loss to Chicago was highly controversial. But their SU record as an underdog is only 6-11 SU and this number is short enough that it probably won't factor in. While Boston stood pat at the trade deadline Toronto added a couple of key pieces in PJ Tucker and Serge Ibaka. They, not the Celtics, are the second best team in the East and I believe they'll use tonight's national showcase to reaffirm that. 8* Toronto

10* Indiana (7:05 ET): Only the atrocious Nets were colder going into the All-Star Break than were the Pacers. Indiana has lost six straight, but still remains in sixth place in the wide open East. Yet, with uncertainly and unhappiness now abound, it is clearly in the team's best interest to end this skid ASAP. Especially considering the number of teams within striking distance. I think the time off will prove to be good for them. While four of the six losses did come here at home, note the Pacers' record here is still an impressive 20-10 SU. They also had to play a pretty hard schedule before the break w/ two games against Cleveland, two against Washington (hottest team in the league) and another vs. San Antonio. With the team's next five game all on the road, I'm figuring the coaching staff has this one labeled as a "must win."

Memphis lost its final game before the All-Star Break, as eight-point favorites, to New Orleans. They too are in sixth place in their conference, although the West is better and so is the Grizzlies' record compared to that of the Pacers. The Grizz figure to battle w/ OKC the rest of the way for the six seed. While I think that the time off for the Pacers was probably for the best, the same cannot be said for Memphis, who has failed to cover both times this year they've played w/ three or more days rest. In fact, they are just 2-8 ATS this year when playing w/ two or more days rest. They're also 3-6 ATS coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Another surprise is that they have a losing record (10-11 SU) vs. the Eastern Conference. Again, not sure Memphis should be getting such respect from the linesmakers here, especially w/ an offense that ranks just 19th in efficiency.

Indiana's recent problems can be tied to a lack of defense. They've given up an average of 116 points per game during the losing streak w/ all six opponents scoring 110 or more. But again, they had to face some of the top offenses in the league during this time. I like the Pacers' chances even more tonight if they get Thaddeus Young back in the lineup. Reportedly, Young went through 5 on 5 drills yesterday and seems ready to go. It's not as if the Pacers have been dominated during the losing streak and it should be pointed out they'd won seven in a row previous to it. I put a lot of stock in that 20-10 SU home record and expect the losing streak to end tonight. 10* Indiana

10* Cornell (7:00 ET): Penn should probably not be laying points on the road, against anyone. Granted, the Quakers did just win a pair of road games last week, one of them as a favorite (at Brown). But following what is now a four-game SU/ATS win streak, they certainly seem to be a bit overvalued for this trip to Cornell. Tonight marks the first home game for the Big Red in nearly three weeks. They went just 1-3 SU on the road over the L2 weeks, which included an 82-63 loss at Penn, who were 6.5-pt favorites. That certainly makes this line curious by comparison. It was the Quakers fifth straight win and cover in this Ivy League rivalry, so while history may not be on Cornell's side Friday, the law of averages certainly is. Take the points.

Penn was just 7-12 SU overall before this win streak started two weeks ago. Admittedly, it has been a pretty dominant four-game run. After beating Columbia 70-62 at home exactly two weeks ago, the Quakers have rattled off three straight wins by 16 or more points. Against Cornell, they shot 54.7% from the field (Big Red shot 38.9%). Incredibly, the Quakers 42-14 going into halftime. Needless to say, that kind of advantage happens maybe once or twice all season. The sharpshooting continued last week at both Brown and Yale as Penn finished above 50% from the field in both games, including 57.6% against Brown. To call this stretch of hot shooting "surprising" would be an understatement. For the year, the team is just 284th nationally, averaging only 68.7 points per game. Of course, Yale shooting only 32.8% from the floor on Saturday helped as well. 

This year will see the 1st ever conference tournament in the Ivy League. Only the top four teams make it. Right now, Princeton, Harvard and Yale all appear to be sitting pretty. The fourth spot is absolutely still up for grabs. Thanks to the four-game win streak, Penn is now in position to qualify. But lest we forget, a 4-6 SU record in conference play means that the Quakers started 0-6! Cornell is just one game back at 3-7 SU. I expect the Big Red to play a lot better at home where they average 77.9 PPG for the year. Meanwhile, I expect all these road game to start catching up w/ Penn. 10* Cornell

10* Under Nuggets/Kings (10:35 ET): Sacramento is the butt of all NBA jokes right now for the manner in which it basically "gave away" its lone superstar, DeMarcus Cousins. It certainly does appear as if the old Lakers-Kings rivalry is being renewed in the sense that GM's Phil Jackson (now w/ the Knicks) and Vlade Divac seem intent on outdoing one another in terms of incompetent dealings. But in all seriousness, the Kings are going to be very bad the rest of the way. Their scoring was already declining before trading away Cousins. They failed to break the 100-pt barrier in the final two games before the All-Star Break and have gone Under three straight games overall. They come into tonight averaging "only" 103.0 PPG.

Denver reigns supreme as the top Over team in the league, but this is still a pretty high number, all things considered. Their opponents are a perfect 4-0 Under this season when the O/U line exceeds 220 points. The Nuggets are an incredible 16-5 Over in the same circumstance, which seems unsustainable to me. Note that the previous two seasons saw only TWO Denver games w/ OU lines of 220+! They are last in the league in defensive efficiency, but w/ Cousins gone, Sacramento's leading scorer is Darren Collison at 13.7 PPG! Yikes. So this should be one of the easier defensive assignments of the year, especially now that the Nuggets are back at full health.

Tonight's O/U line is also a sharp increase over the number that linesmakers hung for the previous meeting between these teams. A 120-114 Denver win marked the EIGHTH straight time these teams have conspired to go Over the total, which may explain in part the increase in the total for tonight. But who knows who will be in uniform for the Kings or how they are likely to perform? My guess is "not very well" and in the first game coming out of the All-Star Break, I wouldn't be shocked to see both teams a bit rusty on the offensive end. They can't all go Over for Denver, can they? 10* Under Nuggets/Kings

8* Weber State (9:05 ET): This is a big game in Big Sky country. Weber State once the conference, but has suffered two of its three losses over the past four games. The one that really hurt came last Saturday at home to North Dakota. That allowed the Fighting Hawks to take over first place. Weber State trails by just one-half game, so a win here and they are tied, although UND swept the season series. Not far behind is also Eastern Washington, who is 10-4 SU in Big Sky contests, which puts them one game back of Weber State. When these teams met the first time, Weber State was a NINE-point favorite and I just don't think enough has changed since that time to justify the rather massive swing we're seeing here from the oddsmakers. I'll take the points.

Not only has Weber State suffered a pair of SU losses recently; they've also failed to cover the spread in six straight games. This will be just the second time in conference play that they have been an underdog. The first was all the way back on New Year's Eve when they went to Montana (were +2.5) and won 84-81. Remember that these Wildcats opened Big Sky play 4-0 and 9-1. There have been a number of close calls recently, but I just don't see the justification in making this team a dog in this spot, even on the road. There are no significant injuries to speak of. It's not often that I go w/ the road team in College Hoops, but I'll make an exception here as the Wildcats are 4-1 ATS taking points this year. They were 5.5-pt favorites against North Dakota last Saturday. 

By the metrics, Eastern Washington has been one of the luckier teams in the entire country this season. They are an amazing 5-1 SU in overtime games including three wins in games that went to double or triple overtime! Their only loss over the last five games also came at North Dakota. They've since responded w/ a couple blowout wins over a couple of bad teams, Northern Colorado and Idaho. Even there, the Eagles experienced a bit of "luck" as those two teams combined to shoot below 35% from the field. Don't count on that kind of fortune here as Weber State comes in shooting at a 49.5% clip for the year including a lights out 41.9% from three-point range. It took a big second half rally to beat EWU the first time, but still I really disagree w/ this pointspread. 8* Weber State

8* Houston (8:05 ET): As I'd anticipated, New Orleans is being overvalued in the wake of the Boogie Cousins trade. Despite that, the Pelicans could very well still make a run at the 8-seed in the Western Conference. But here, they'll be facing one of the league's top teams and the number is just far too short. Houston is a top five ATS team in the league and has gone 20-8 ATS against foes w/ a losing record. New Orleans, remember, is only 23-34 SU. In the only prior meeting this year, the Rockets won 122-100 as they actually led by that same 22-point margin after one half of play. They were big 12-point home favorites in that game as well. It's going to take time for Cousins and Anthony Davis to gel. Lay the short number w/ the road team here. 

Even before the Cousins trade, New Orleans had created some momentum for itself. They went 3-1 SU/ATS on a four-game road trip, losing only (ironically enough) to Cousins and his old team, Sacramento. They pulled outright upsets over Minnesota, Phoenix and Memphis. But the fact they were a dog against those first two speaks volumes about what the marketplace thought of them. Remember that Cousins has never been part of a winning team. Even Davis, as outstanding as he is, hasn't had a ton of success so far in his NBA career. The team also lost some depth in dealing for Cousins. It's not like they were deep to begin with. Even w/ Davis' presence, the Pelicans' ranked just 27th in the league in offensive efficiency. Davis didn't really get any kind of break over the weekend as he was the MVP of the All-Star Game.

Houston lost its last game - as a 10-pt favorite - to Miami last Wednesday. I chalk that up to the team looking forward to the All-Star Break. They'd been off the three days prior and were on a four-game win streak. Moving forward, I see no reason to not expect this team to solidify its place as one of the three best teams in the West. With James Harden running the show, they obviously can score in bunches. Currently, they are second (only trailing Golden State) in the league, averaging 114.4 PPG. They are fully healthy coming out of the Break w/ Patrick Beverley back and Lou Williams being brought into the fold. At 19-11 ATS, this is one of the top two road teams at the betting windown in the entire league. 8* Houston

10* Charlotte (7:35 ET): It sure is nice to have the NBA back, isn't it? Charlotte was a team that did not end the 1st half well. They went into the All-Star Break on a real tailspin. They've covered only two of their last 13 games overall and are just 3-10 SU over that same span. Their final game before the Break was perhaps the most painful result yet as they blew a huge lead in Toronto (outscored 32-10 in 4Q!) and lost 90-85 as six-point pups. Hey, at least they covered! I expect this to be one of the more motivated teams coming out of the Break. Note they still own the East's sixth best net efficiency rating and point differential. That's more than you can say for Detroit, who is 2.5 games up on Charlotte, but also an inferior team according to the numbers. Take the points.

The Pistons had their own struggles in the 1st half, but went into the Break on a 6-3 SU/ATS run. They are clearly a much better team at home (17-11 SU), but they've still been outscored overall over the course of the season. Shooting remains an issue. They are 28th in the league in "true" shooting. They've failed to score 100 pts in three of the last four games. Something to keep in mind is that the team's longest win streak all year is only three games, so sustained success is not something we're seeing in the Motor City. The majority of their recent wins have come against the dregs of the league, such as Philadelphia, the Lakers and Dallas. There was also a miracle one-point win at Toronto. Simply put, even after factorinig in home court advantage, I do not believe the Pistons should be favored to this degree. 

Charlotte is clearly in "do or die" mode to start the second half. Their next six games will all be on the road, the next five out West. They do get a break in that they avoid most of the top Western Conference teams on the trip. It is shocking to see the team's record as an underdog is 1-15 straight up. But, again, I expect that to turn around. They have lost two of three to the Pistons this season, but the last meeting (which took place here in Detroit) was a one-point game. A buzzer-beater from Marco Belinelli was disallowed as it came a split second too late. Had it counted, it would have been the punctuation mark on a 47-30 run to close the game. I'm sure the Hornets players will be eager for revenge. They turned it over only five times in that game. 10* Charlotte

10* Florida Atlantic (7:00 ET): The rise of UTEP is one of the most "under the radar" stunning things of this entire College Basketball season. Basically "left for dead" at 2-13 SU, the Miners have inexplicably won 9 of 11 and covered 10 consecutive games! I suppose this is somewhat comparable to what the Heat did in the NBA. But like the Heat, the idea of UTEP being a legit threat in Conference USA seems a bit far-fetched. Tonight, they are at Florida Atlantic. It was a one-point game (66-65 UTEP) when these teams met earlier in this season and that was the last time the Miners did NOT cover (were -1). This ATS streak is bound to end and considering the team has lost straight up each of the previous two times it has been on a three-game win streak, tonight looks like the night! 

FAU stopped a three-game losing streak w/ a 94-82 win at lowly Southern Miss Saturday. It was the Owls' highest scoring game of the year against a D-I opponent. They shot 61.2% from the field and made 15 three-pointers. Will they be able to match those numbers tonight? Probably not. But let's give this team some credit. Save for games against the top two teams in their league (Middle Tenn, LA Tech), they have been competitive virtually every time out. Five of their C-USA losses have come by six pts or fewer, two of them in overtime. Earlier in the year though, the Owls went to Ohio State and won in OT! While just 4-8 SU at home this year, the Owls have only been outscored here by an average of 1.2 PPG. They are better than their record shows. 

There's been a stark contrast w/ UTEP when it comes to close games. The Miners' stunning surge has largely been a byproduct of winning a lot of close ones. Of their nine conference victories, five have been by six points or less and three were decided in overtime. Two were one-point games, one of those the win over FAU, a game which did to go OT. That game was decided on a buzzer-beater and was actually the Miners' second straight one-point win in OT at the time. There have been four wins by four points or less for UTEP during the 9-2 SU run. So what I'm saying is that they're due to lose a close one. There's definitely some value here on FAU considering the change in venue as it was a 1-pt spread in El Paso. Again, UTEP has failed to win both times they've been on a three-game win streak this season. 10* Florida Atlantic

8* Creighton (9:00 ET): Creighton is off big 87-70 win over Georgetown (shot 53.1%) Sunday, which improved the Blue Jays' record to 22-5 SU on the season. Unfortunately, all five of those losses have come in Big East play and as a result they are still looking up at both Villanova and Butler in the conference standings. Four of the five losses have come over the last month and they are at Nova on Saturday. So, winning tonight is imperative. The Jays host a Providence team which has covered five in a row and eight of its last nine. The Friars are 11-3 ATS as underdogs this season. But this number looks too low to me and as a result, I'm laying the points. Creighton already beat Providence - by 14 - on the road earlier in the season. 

Though Providence has found success at the betting window, road games haven't gone all that well for them. They have the ignominious distinction of being the ONLY Big East team to lose to DePaul this season. They've won just one road game over the last month and that was by one point at Marquette. Having a full week to prepare here may seem like an advantage to some. But I sense the time off is a contributing factor to this line being so low. Remember last Wednesday's 75-63 win over Xavier isn't as impressive as it may seem considering the Musketeers were w/o their two top scorers. At home, the Friars were actually down at the half before pulling away late.

In the first meeting, Creighton's efficient offense was on full display as they shot a blistering 56% from the field. This is one of the nation's top shooting teams, in fact, only UCLA is shooting at a better percentage for the year. They are better than 50% for the year in Big East play, which would be the highest percentage by a conference member since Syracuse in the late 1980's. The sharp shooting is nothing new as in the six years under HC Greg McDermott, the Blue Jays are top five in the nation in both overall and three-point shooting percentage. They're averaging 85.5 points per game this year. Providence, like G'town on Sunday, will have no answer defensively. 8* Creighton

10* Georgetown (7:00 ET): On the surface, DePaul has been competitive - at least by its woeful standards - the L2 games. Though they still lost by an average of 14.5 PPG, the Blue Demons managed to cover against both Villanova and DePaul. But the fact remains this team has just ONE win in Big East play this season (an upset of Providence back on January 10th) and is 0-11 SU away from home. They've been outscored by an average of 13 PPG by conference foes, which has to be a sweet sound for tonight's opponent, Georgetown. The Hoyas are still licking their wounds a bit after being taken behind the proverbial woodshed at Creighton Sunday. But this is a big drop in class for them and one they should handle w/ ease considering they've already beaten DePaul on the road this season. Lay the points.

John Thompson III's bench might be a little shorter tonight w/ two reserves - Bradley Hayes & Tre Campbell - both listed as questionable due to foot and knee injuries, respectively. But it's no matter against this weak opponent that they've beaten six times over the L3 seasons. It's been more than 20 years since DePaul won here. About three weeks ago, the Hoyas won at DePaul. It was only by a three-point margin, but that sets us up well here w/ some good value. G'town was eight-point favorites for that first meeting, so w/ the switch in home court, it certainly appears to be some decent value. Again, DePaul has not won a single game away from home this year. They've been outscored - on average - by 14.8 PPG in those 11 contests. 

If you happened to have DePaul on Sunday, god bless you. A half court heave at the buzzer gave them the cover at Butler. The final score was 82-66 and DePaul was 17.5-point underdogs. They closed the game on an 11-0 run over the final two minutes after trailing by as many as 27. That was thanks to some sloppy play from Butler (turnovers!) and more free throw attempts than they should have been getting. It was a similar story earlier in the week vs. Villanova as the Demons trailed that game 39-18 at the half and again fell behind by as many as 27 in the second. This second road game in four days is the culmination of a brutal stretch for the worst team in the Big East as they just had to play the top three teams, all in a row. G'town had no answers for Creighton's efficient offense on Sunday, but this will be a far easier task, obviously. It should be noted that the Hoyas project to shoot much better tonight from 3-pt range than they did Sunday when they were a woeful 3 of 22. 10* Georgetown

8* Temple (7:00 ET): Temple has lost B2B games as a favorite. Perhaps they were looking forward to this revenge spot against UCF, who beat them by 24 back on New Year's Eve in Orlando. The first of those two outright losses was pretty embarrassing as they fell to lowly East Carolina 78-64 as 6.5-pt chalk. How did that happen? Well, the Owls went ice cold in the second half as they went from a halftime lead (by 1) to a 17-point deficit pretty quickly. Sunday, here at home against UConn, it was a much tighter affair. Again, the Owls blew a halftime lead, this one was six points. They lost on a last second layup (just 2.9 seconds remaining). It was a game they led almost the whole way and by as many as 10 pts in the second half. I look for them to take out their frustrations on UCF tonight. Lay the short number. 

The loss to UConn was actually the second time this season that Temple lost a home game in the closing seconds. The other was against Tulsa back on 1.14. They are already guaranteed just their third losing record in conference play over the L34 seasons because of those two defeats. Injuries also have taken a toll, but here they may actually be the beneficiary of a key absence on the other side. UCF's fourth leading scorer Tanksley Efianayi is listed as questionable due to a knee injury. After missing last Tuesday's game vs. Tulsa entirely, Efianayi played only four minutes at ECU Sunday, a game the Golden Knights won by only three. That game required UCF closing on an 11-2 run just to pull out the SU victory. So they too very easily could have lost to the Pirates.

When these teams met on New Year's Eve, Temple couldn't hit water from the boat. They finished at just 31.2% from the field including an ugly 5 of 25 from three-point range. Aside from a game against a very good SMU team, that is their lowest scoring effort against any American Conference opponent. They were also -20 in FT attempts, not that it mattered in a 77-53 loss. But this time around, it's UCF's shooting I'd be concerned with. The Knights average just 63.9 PPG away from home. They have lost the last five times they've been a road dog of three points or less, covering only once. Meanwhile, Temple is 18-6 ATS the L24 times it has been asked to lay three or less at home. 8* Temple

10* New Mexico (10:00 ET): Colorado State visits the famed "Pit" in Albuquerque for a very important Mountain West matchup. The Rams are one of three teams currently tied atop the MWC at 10-4 SU in league play. New Mexico isn't far behind, just 1.5 games off the pace at 9-6 SU. But if they are to catch the top three, winning tonight is probably a neccessity. The homecourt edge may not be what it once was for the Lobos, but it is still strong as is evident by their 10-3 SU record at "The Pit" this season. They are only 3-7 ATS in those games, however, which reflects inflated lines based on their past strong history here at home. But the number is short tonight, probably due to the fact Colorado State is 9-1 ATS in "true" road games. I'm laying the points as the Lobos already beat CSU in Fort Collins earlier this season. 

When New Mexico arrived in Fort Collins for that earlier meeting, they were struggling. They'd lost three in a row. But they responded w/ an outright 84-71 win as four-point underdogs as they shot 55% from the floor. But that game was more notable for the fracas that took place afterwards between a UNM assistant CSU forward Emmanuel Omogbo. So clearly, emotions will be high for this rematch. But the problem from Colorado State's perspective is that there's turmoil from within right now as a report came out three days ago alleging their own HC (Larry Eustachy) berated and intimidated players, creating a "culture of abuse." There have been calls for Eustachy's job, something that is likely to create major distractions moving forward. 

The Rams have won and covered four straight entering tonight, but all of those wins came before the report on Eustachy was released. Normally, having a week off (as CSU has had here) would be a good thing. But this being the 1st time the Rams have taken the court since the report came out may work against them. They do host San Diego State on Saturday, so this may be a bit of a lookahead spot as well. Not so for New Mexico, who is off a loss at Fresno State Saturday. But that was just their third loss in the last nine games. Curiously, two of those losses were to bottom tier MWC teams, but the Lobos also hold road wins over three of the top teams in the league as well. They also average 78.4 PPG here at home. 10* New Mexico

8* Central Michigan (7:00 ET): The MAC West remains one of the most wide-open races in any conference in all of College Basketball. Currently, five of the six teams are separated by just two games. However, of late, it appears as if both Northern Illinois and Central Michigan are determined to play their respective ways out of the race. Northern Illinois has lost four straight, the last two at home and those were killers considering they came against Toledo and Ball State. Not to be outdone, Central Michigan has lost three in a row, the last two also coming at home. Playing one more time in Mt. Pleasant, I can't see the Chippewas losing another home game, thus I'll gladly lay the points in this revenge spot.

You can always expect plenty of points when Central Michigan takes the court. Case in point; they've scored a total of 193 points the L2 games and lost both. Saturday was a painful overtime loss to Ball State, the current MAC West leader, by a score of 109-100. The Chips were a small 2.5-pt favorite for that game. They lost despite Marcus Keene scoring 40 pts for the sixth time in a game this season. He is the nation's leading scorer at 29.8 PPG and as a result CMU is third nationally in points per game at 89.9. They average 95.2 at home. Prior to losing to Buffalo and Ball State over the L7 days, the Chips were 10-1 SU on their home floor. I find it very difficult to believe that a Northern Illinois squad that's averaging only 64.2 PPG on the road can keep pace here.

Back on January 7th, Northern Illinois did beat Central Michigan 87-83 in DeKalb. They did so despite making nine fewer three-pointers than the Chippewas, who also got to the FT line 44x. Shockingly, NIU controlled most of the game. Given the statistical profile, that almost seems impossible. At the time, that was the start of a four-game MAC win streak for the Huskies. But they're only 2-7 SU since w/ one of the wins coming by just a bucket. This is not a good shooting team - at all. They are just 38.7% from the field on the road, including 26.8% from three-point range. They've lost 16 of the past 19 visits to Mt. Pleasant and I can't see them winning this one either. 8* Central Michigan

10* Toledo (7:00 ET): The MAC West is very wide open right now w/ every team besides Eastern Michigan separated by just two games. The two teams in question here are both tied at 7-7 SU in conference play, which is one game behind division leader Ball State. Northern Illinois, Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan have all been fading of late, so this is a very important game as both Toledo and Western Michigan will still get to host Ball State later this month. Toledo is the home team here as well and I love the set up from their perspective. Not only is it a revenge game (lost 90-74 in Kalamazoo last month), but WMU is just awful away from home. The Broncos are 1-13 SU when they're not the home team, which includes four neutral site losses than came by an average of more than 16 PPG. I say lay the number here.

The aforementiond 90-74 loss to WMU stands as Toledo's worst conference loss of the season. Four of the other six have been by six points or less w/ three of those coming by four points or less. The Rockets were actually 4.5-pt favorites when they visited Kalamazoo, so by comparison, this line looks like a steal after factoring in the change in venue. Especially w/ how bad of a road team Western Michigan has been. Toledo comes into tonight having covered four straight w/ the only SU loss during that stretch coming at Akron. They beat Northern Illnois by eight, on the road, Saturday in overtime. However, while they may have needed an extra five minutes to put away the Huskies there, note that the Rockets actually led by as many as 15 in the second half. They shot 54.5% from the field for the game. 

In the first meeting between these teams, Western Michigan shot an insane 70% from the field, also matching that number from three-point range (7 of 10). I assure you that's not a misprint and also they will not be matching that performance here tonight. The Broncos' road woes are actually more attributable to the defensive end, however, as they give up over 80 PPG on better than 50 percent shooting. That's trouble against a Toledo side which is one of the better shooting teams in the entire country and is at 54% overall the L5 games. At home, the Rockets average 82.3 points per game. Toledo's only two home losses this year have come by a TOTAL of three points. I look for the Rockets to be the ones to keep pace tonight in the MAC West. 10* Toledo

8* West Virginia (9:00 ET): Well, Bob Huggins team finally won an overtime game. They entered Saturday 0-3 in OT contests, which accounted for half of their losses this season. It took TWO OT's to dispatch of Texas Tech and while they failed to cover the spread (my ONLY NCAAB loss this weekend), they actually came pretty close, winning the game 83-74. (The closing line was -10). Some may attempt to make the case that this would be a bad spot to lay points w/ the Mountaineers given that they they are only two days removed from a marathon win. But, it's a big drop in class from Texas Tech to Texas and that isn't being properly accounted for by the linesmakers. When WVU went to Austin earlier this year, they were an 11.5-pt choice. Thus, it looks as if we have plenty of value for tonight's rematch when factoring in the change in venue.

I have not attempted to hide my affinity for WVU this season. I think this is one of the top teams in the country and a squad that can make a LOT of noise come Tournament time. They are certainly better than their record. Even at #9 in the country (new poll comes out later today), I feel they are ranked too low. Remember last Monday, they had Kansas "dead to rites" - in Lawrence. At home this season, they are 14-2 SU and outscoring opponents by 24 points per game. It was not easy Saturday vs. Texas Tech, but they outrebounded the Red Raiders, forced 20 turnovers and were able to overcome the opponent shooting a blistering 58% from the field in regulation (held them to 13% in the two overtime periods). I will again mention how big turnovers are for this team; they lead the country in the number forced and differential. 

Texas is highly unlikely to shoot 58% from the floor in this game. Not just because WVU had held its three previous opponents all below 35%, but also due to the fact the Longhorns are a dreadful three-point shooting team. We're talking 30.3% overall from behind the arc (27.1% on the road) for the season. The Longhorns have not won a SINGLE game away from home this year (0-12 SU!) and in doing so, average only 63.8 points per game. They are 330th nationally in three-point shooting and 311th in foul shooting. They played surprisingly well in Austin against the Mountaineers, but that won't be the case here. 8* West Virginia

10* Georgia Southern (7:00 ET): The sadists that run the Sun Belt have done it again as all four road teams Monday are playing away from home for the second time in three days. The only one of the four being asked to lay points is TX-Arlington, who not coincidentally is also the only one of the four that won Saturday. The Mavericks should probably be considered the SBC's best team at this point, though by no means is that a definitive distinction. Tonight they face one of the two teams that's just one-half game off the lead, that being Ga Southern. TX-Arlington was a very fortunate winner Saturday at Georgia State, so they could easily be coming into this game - perhaps the biggest in the remainder of the SBC reg season - off a loss. I'll take the points w/ the home dog.

TX-Arlington won Saturday by hitting a 35-foot shot w/ just two seconds left. The final score was 68-67 at Georgia State and as I said, they should feel very fortunate to have won that game. Not only because of the last second shot from Eric Neal, but also because - as a team - they shot just 35.5% from the field. Sure, we should probably expect that number to improve here. But, by how much? For the year, the Mavericks are shooting a woeful 30.8% from three-point range when away from home. All six of their losses have been "true" road games this year. Half of those have been as favorites vs. conference foes. Here they'll have to deal w/ an offense which averages a very impressive 85.5 PPG on its home floor. The result of that average is Georgia Southern is 10-1 SU in Statesboro. 

Georgia Southern also won a close one Saturday, beating Texas State 70-67. Though they did not hit their season average in points per game, they did shoot the ball well. I talked about the likelihood of TX Arlington shooting better tonight than they did in the last game. Well, similarly, we should probably expect an increase in point production from the home side as well. A big difference in the last games from these respective teams was game control. Aside from the final score, TX Arlington never led in the second half. Georgia Southern led Texas State the whole way, by as many as 17. The Bulldogs' lone home loss of the season came all the way back on Dec 4, by three, against Florida Gulf Coast. By the way, this is also Senior Night on campus as it's the final reg season home game for GSU (next three all on the road). Expect a very motivated team and a raucous crowd. 10* Georgia Southern

10* Wisconsin (1:00 ET): Count me among the group that is not a strong believer in Maryland. Yes, the Terps are an impressive 22-4 SU overall, including 10-3 SU in Big 10 play. But they've had a tremendous amount of good fortune along the way, namely a 9-3 SU record in games decided by six points or less. The majority of those close wins came early in the season, thus we've already started to see some regression to the mean in this department, including a pair of losses to open February. They did just win at Northwestern (as 2.5-pt pups) on Wednesday, improving to an unfathomable 10-0-1 ATS as an underdog this year (10-1 straight up!). But this stands as their toughest test to date as they face one of the two teams in their league that I have rated as clearly better. I'll call for Maryland's incredible streak as an underdog to come to an end here. Lay the points.

Wisconsin is currently tied w/ Maryland at 10-3 SU in Big 10 play, so the winner here will move into a first place tie w/ Purdue, who won Saturday. To me, Purdue and Wisconsin are the class of this league and there's a gap between them and the field. They are the only teams worthy of the Top 25 in the Big 10 in my estimation. However, the Badgers are coming into this big game a little wounded, both literally and figuratively. Literally in the sense that Bronson Koenig is still battling a lower leg strain that caused him to miss the Michigan game on Thursday. Figuratively in that the team has now dropped B2B games w/ a pair of sub-60 pt performances. They fell here in Madison (rare home loss!) to Northwestern last Sunday, then w/o Koenig fell at Michigan.

Thursday marked the first time in his career Koenig missed a game. Reports are that he practiced Friday. His status is still listed as questionable for today. But regardless if he suits up or not here, I'm on the Badgers. Though a senior and an important cog on the team, Koenig is NOT Wisconsin's best player. They'd actually been winning despite some subpar individual performances from him prior to the injury sidelined him. The Michigan game was neck and neck w/o him throughout and that was on the road. This is the first time all season that the Badgers have dropped B2B games. I should point out that the N'western game marked their 1st and only home loss of the season. They are 13-1 SU at the Kohl Center, outscoring foes on average by 21.8 points per game! I'll bank on that defense that is holding foes to just 55.8 PPG here to "rule the day." After he scored a career-high 32 points in the last game, Maryland start Melo Trimble should come back down to Earth here. 10* Wisconsin

10* UCLA (10:00 ET): While I admittedly have some concerns about UCLA (specifically, their poor defense) come NCAA Tournament time, I have far more concerns regarding their rival, USC. This may seem like a lot of points to lay in a rivalry game, but it's telling that USC remains unranked despite just five losses this season and playing in a Power 5 Conference. I actually do not consider them one of the top 50 teams in the country, let alone the top 25. Therefore, I've got no issue laying this number w/ a Bruins team that is among the best in the country offensively and well rested, playing its third straight home game.

I should bring up that this is a revenge spot for UCLA. One of their three losses this season came on January 25th at USC, 84-76 as seven-point chalk. At that time, they were coming off a loss to Arizona, which remains the only time they've dropped a home game all year. They actually shot much better overall than the Trojans in the first meeting, but the difference was USC making 14 three-pointers compared to just six for the Bruins. That +24 margin from behind the arc is what enabled the Trojans to pull the upset. That was a season-high for them. UCLA also committed 17 turnovers (a season worst for them) and the 76 points still stands as the fewest they've scored in any Pac 12 game this season. This is a team that averages 91.9 points per game, which is the most in the country, and that average jumps to 94.6 PPG at home!

This spread looks like a great value considering what UCLA was asked to lay in the first meeting, on the road. Their average margin of victory here at home is 20.1 PPG. Since losing to USC, they've won four straight, three of those by 16 points or more. The latest came Sunday vs. Oregon State, 78-60. Lonzo Ball again led the way in that one w/ 22 pts and nine assists. The Bruins were actually held to just 32 points in the first half, a season-low, but still won comfortably. Having not played since Sunday, they should be rested and ready for tonight. USC has been off since last Saturday when they lost at Oregon, 81-70. It's easy to see this team's 9-2 SU record away from home this season and think the points are a bargain, but the Trojans have been quite fortunate throughout the year. UCLA gets its revenge in a major way. 10* UCLA

8* Oregon (3:00 ET): The seventh ranked Ducks have lost only two Pac 12 games all season. One was at UCLA last week, a game where they blew a double digit halftime lead. The other, also on the road, came against Colorado. They'll look to avenge that one this afternoon and with the national TV cameras present here in Eugene, I expect a highly motivated favorite. Oregon has been unbeatable here at home this season - literally - as in they're 16-0 SU w/ an average margin of victory of 21.1 points per game. This being the second road game in three days (dreaded spot for Pac 12 teams) does Colorado no favors here. Lay the points. 

Oregon was a 6.5-point favorite when they ventured into Boulder last month. While oddsmakers certainly have to account for the result of that game, it still appears (to me) that the Ducks are a bargain here at this price. As you probably know, the effect of home court advantage is quite drastic in college basketball. I already meNtioned Oregon's perfect home record. Well, Colorado is just 4-7 SU in "true" road games. One of those wins came Thursday at Oregon State, who is winless in conference play. I played against the Buffs in that game and it was tooth and nail most of the way. They even trailed at halftime. In my analysis, I called it a "sandwich spot" as CU was off a blowout win Sunday over Washington State (81-49) and had this higher profile game on deck. I think I was proven right.

The first meeting between these teams marked Oregon's worst offensive effort to date in conference play. It also tied their lowest scoring game of the season. It's one of just three games they failed to score at least 70 points. Here in Eugene, they average 82.8 points per game. Aside from one bad half against UCLA, the Ducks have been pretty close to perfect the L4 games. They absolutely destroyed Arizona on this floor, 85-58, two weeks ago. Thursday, it was a 79-61 win over Utah. They shot 53.4% for the game and led by 16 at halftime. Oh by the way, it's not just this season that Oregon is dominating at home. They've won 41 STRAIGHT TIMES here, which is the nation's longest home win streak! The two teams they've beaten over the L7 days (USC, Utah) are both better than Colorado, a team that lost its first seven Pac 12 games. 8* Oregon

8* Ohio (2:00 ET): One might make the argument here that Ohio is in store for a letdown after pulling B2B upsets on the road. But not I. Really, it's been pretty remarkable what the Bobcats have been able to do since losing leading scorer Antonio Campbell for the year. I had them when they hosted MAC leader Akron two weeks ago. They won that game convincingly, 85-70, handing the Zips their first conference loss of the season. After that was a letdown here in Athens w/ OU losing (as nine-point chalk) to Central Michigan. But since then, they've won twice on the road - both times as dogs - beating Ball State and Eastern Michigan. Both wins were relatively close, but one that was not came back on January 28th when they destroyed today's opponent, Bowling Green, 96-72. That was w/o Campbell and as seven-point chalk. Thus, the Bobcats look like a bit of bargain here. 

Bowling Green, as you might surmise, is not a good team. They've lost both games over the past week, both by double digits. The latest came at Western Michigan by a score of 89-79. The Falcons were seven point underdogs in Kalamazoo, but even the oddsmakers can't help when you continue to play poor defense. BGSU has now allowed six of its last seven opponents to score at least 82 points while only one of the last six hasn't shot 51.9% from the floor or better. For the season, the team is allowing over 80 PPG away from home and that's a big reason they are just 2-9 SU in such games. Last Saturday, they allowed Buffalo (who is not a great team) to shoot 63.5% from the floor! If the Falcons shoot anywhere close to what they did in the first meeting w/ Ohio, then they are in major trouble yet again.

In that first meeting, Ohio held BGSU to just 33.3% from the floor including 7 of 34 from three-point range. Consider that Ohio made only TWO free throws the entire game (went to the line just 7 times!) and still won by 24 on the road. Of course, it helped that they shot 53.5% from the floor including 18 of 35 from three-point range. Bowling Green's track record indicates that the Bobcats may be able to match those numbers here this afternoon. Again, that win came w/o Campbell in the lineup. Ohio is 5-1 ATS its last six times laying between 9.5 and 12 points in Athens, including a perfect 2-0 this season. This line should be higher. 8* Ohio

10* West Virginia (2:00 ET): This matchup has many elements you look for in handicapping College Basketball. First off, WVU is going to be in an ornery mood in its return to Morgantown after blowing a huge lead late at Kansas Monday. They lost in overtime (still covered), a game they will certainly rue for some time. But I anticipate HC Bob Huggins channelling what happened in a positive direction. This is also a revenge spot for the Mountaineers, who lost by one down in Lubbock earlier this season. At home, WVU has destroyed opponents to the tune of a 25.0 PPG margin. For this afternoon's rematch, they are catching the Red Raiders right after an upset of Baylor on Monday. The revenge angle is strong here and I anticipate a blowout. Lay the points. 

With less than three minutes to go, West Virginia led Kansas by 14 points Monday. Again, that was in Lawrence. They held the Jayhawks to 34.4% shooting for the game. It is almost inexplicable that they ended up losing. Still, as disappointing a result as that may be, I still view this team as one of the very best in the country. Defensively, we all know about the press that forces opponents into turning the ball over at a high rate. But the Mountaineers have also held four of their last five opponents below 50% shooting including the last three all under 35%! Texas Tech has done a good job of not turning the ball over lately, but I question that ability in this environment. Their road record is just 1-6 SU and a big reason for that is their overall shooting numbers drop dramatically.

The Red Raiders upset Baylor Monday thanks to some strong shooting (51%). But I don't see them being that sharp here having to deal with the West Virginia press. Remember that the 1st meeting went to overtime w/ the score tied 67-67 at the end of regulation. Again, while Texas Tech has been careful w/ the ball lately, they are facing a deep team that leads the country in turnovers forced and turnover margin. It will be a whole different animal facing the Mountaineers in Morgantown where as mentioned earlier, the home team is bludgeoning opponents, outscoring them on average 90.9 to 65.9. Also consider that three of West Virginia's losses this year have come in overtime. They are better than the overall record and still a top 5 team in my estimation. 10* West Virginia

8* Wichita State (12:00 ET): Northern Iowa got off to an uncharacteristically terrible start in Missouri Valley play, losing its first five conference games. Needless to say, the faithful are not used to seeing those kind of results. However, there has been somewhat of an incredible turnaround in Cedar Falls w/ the Panthers winning 9 of their last 10, the only loss coming on the road to second place Illinois State. UNI is seeking to become the 1st team in MVC history to start conference play 0-5 SU or worse and still finish above .500. They may very well achieve that, but this afternoon is a tall order as they visit the top team in the league, Wichita State. The Shockers have lost only one MVC game all year, also at Illinois State, and they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.8 PPG. Northern Iowa has been hot, but lay the points here.

It's pretty ridiculous that Wichita State is not ranked in the Top 25. The Shockers are 24-4 SU overall and two of those losses, to Michigan State and Louisville, took place back in November. Last time I played them was the revenge spot against Illinois State and they destroyed the Redbirds 86-45 here at home. Since then, they've continued to roll, posting three more double digit victories. The latest came Wednesday at Southern Illinois where they won 87-68, covering the 13.5-pt spread. They shot 55.6% from the floor, which will be a difficult number to duplicate here, but then again the Shockers are one of the top shooting teams in the country and above 50% at home where they are destroying opponents by an average of 27.3 points per game. I just don't see how this team isn't considered among the 15 best in the country right now.

When Northern Iowa opened conference play 0-5 SU, one of those losses came at the hands of Wichita State. It was an 80-66 loss as 10.5-pt home underdogs. Using that line and result as a baseline, the favorite sure looks undervalued here, don't they? I realize that the Panthers have seemingly turned their season around, but the majority of the wins have come at the expense of the bottom of the league, which is very weak. When facing a team that averages at least 77 PPG (WSU averaging 81.8), UNI is 0-9 ATS this season. A big reason for that record is that they are averaging only 63.3 PPG for the year and an ugly 59.8 PPG on the road. Incredibly, during Wichita State's current nine-game win streak, only one of the wins haven't been by at least 15 points! 8* Wichita State

8* Rider (7:00 ET): Rider's record (14-13 SU overall, 7-9 in MAAC) won't cause you to do cartwheels, but the Broncs most definitely have been competitive of late. Therefore, at home tonight, I anticipate them beating a Canisius team they already took care of on the road earlier in the year. Rider has covered three straight and in both SU losses, they lost the lead in the final two minutes. They led Fairfield on the road Monday night, but could not hold on as they went cold down the stretch. They still covered though, as four-point dogs, losing only 69-67. That came after an insane 112-107 win last Saturday over Quinnipiac here at home. No, there was no overtime. Also, last week saw the Broncs play Monmouth (MAAC's top team) tough, losing by only five. Take the points as I believe the home team will finish off a season sweep here.

Canisius comes off an 89-83 home win over Iona where they were slight one-point favorites. They are now two games up on Rider in the conference standings. The game w/ Iona was tied in the late stages before the Golden Griffins closed on a 6-0 run. However, I remain concerned about this team's defense, or rather lack of it. Somehow they have managed to go 9-6 SU, 10-4-1 ATS on the road despite allowing an average 83.7 points per game! Each of their last five opponents - and seven of the last eight - have shot 50% or better from the field. Rider may be w/o assist leader Stevie Jordan, but they still have four other double digit scorers on the roster. Twice the Golden Griffins have been road chalk in MAAC play and both times they lost the game outright. Those were against bottom tier teams Niagara and Quinnipiac, both of whom are looking up at Rider in the MAAC standings. 

When Rider won at Canisius earlier in the year, they shot exactly 50% from the floor in a 72-66 upset as 6.5-pt dogs. Using that number as our baseline and factoring in the switch in home court advantage, you'd certainly think the Broncs would deserve to be a slight home favorite for the rematch, especially considering they won SU the first go around. Something to note is that they pulled that upset despite making only two three-pointers the entire game! They are now 4-1 SU/ATS the L5 meetings vs. Canisius and 16-3 SU the L19 times hosting them. Rider sees its scoring average jump all the way up to 80.4 PPG here at home, so I see another strong offensive showing tonight. 8* Rider

10* St. Mary's (11:00 ET): Wrong place, wrong time for Loyola Marymount here. They are venturing into St. Mary's right after the Gaels lost for the just the second time in conference play. That loss did take place here at home, against rival Gonzaga on Saturday. The Gaels played the Zags tough, but ultimately came up short (by 10 points) on the scoreboard. Both WCC losses so far have come to Gonzaga. Otherwise, St. Mary's has taken care of business in conference play w/ 11 of its 12 wins coming by double digits. One of those came all the way back on December 29th as they beat Loyola Marymount on the road, 72-60 as 11.5-pt chalk. I suppose you could make the case that this is a big number to lay after suffering a disappointing loss, but SMC has had adequate time to get over what happened on Saturday. Lay the points.

Loyola Marymount had the misfortune of playing Gonzaga two days before St. Mary's did. They lost by 30, at home. If you're going to make the case that the Lions might take advantage of a letdown here from the Gaels, then you probably would have also argued that they should have taken advantage of a lookahead spot last week. That clearly didn't happen. Loyola did win its next game, 66-60 over Portland on Saturday, but the Pilots are a very bad basketball team. I mean really bad. As in their last win was December 31st. St. Mary's beat them 74-33 here at home. Note Loyola is also 0-4 ATS this season after allowing 60 pts or less their last game. Also troubling for the Lions is that they've shot worse than 40% from the field in three consecutive games. As I'm about to get into, St. Mary's can be a very staunch team defensively. 

There was a game two weeks ago where St. Mary's allowed just 27 points. Not in a half, but in a GAME. That was at San Diego on Feb 4. For the year, the team is giving up just 56.6 PPG, which is second best in the nation, trailing only Virginia. Besides Gonzaga, only one WCC team has been able to score 70 against the Gaels and that was Pacific, who hit it right on the nose. St. Mary's average margin of victory here at McKeon Pavillion is 15.8 points per game. Against a below average foe like Loyola Marymount, they should be able to top that. The only team besides Gonzaga that came in here and won this season was TX-Arlington. That was all the way back in the second game of the season. After a couple of bad shooting performances last week, the Gaels should rebound here against a team which allows its opponents to make 48.8% of its field goal attempts (38.6% from 3-pt range) on the road. 10* St. Mary's

8* Oregon State (9:00 ET): There's no sugarcoating the fact that this has been an awful season up in Corvallis. Not only has Oregon State yet to win a single conference game (0-13 SU!), but they have been w/o their best player, Tres Tinkle (coach's son), ever since January 7th due to a wrist injury. The result has been them getting outscored by an average of 16.7 PPG by Pac 12 foes. Most of the games, as you can tell, have not been close. But one that was took place at the end of January at Colorado. There, the Beavers were able to stay within the generous 18-pt spot, losing only 85-78. The rematch is tonight and it seems as if the oddsmakers still haven't learned their lesson as, now on the road, CU is still laying too many points given that they are a below average Pac 12 team. Furthermore, this is hardly a great spot for the Buffs. They're in off a blowout win on Sunday and have a far "bigger" game on deck, at Oregon, later this week. Take the points. 

Oregon State actually has a history of playing Colorado tough, at least here in Corvallis. They've both won and covered the spread in five of the past six meetings here, including LY's 60-56 win as three-point favorites. There haven't been many Pac 12 wins since, but at least the Beavers can enter w/ some confidence knowing they've been able to at least hang w/ the Buffs recently. They were also able to hang w/ UCLA, at least most of the way, on Sunday. Taking on one of the league's top teams, OSU actually led late in the first half and held the Bruins to a season-low 32 1H pts. The 78-60 final is a bit misleading, although UCLA pulled away halfway through the second half. But still, OSU stayed within the number (+25.5) the whole game. 

Colorado dominated Washington State on Sunday, winning 81-49 as 12.5-pt home favorites. It was their second straight game scoring 81 pts on better than 50% shooting. But both of those games took place in Boulder. The Buffaloes have just one Pac 12 road win this season and it came at Stanford back on 2.2. They are 0-6 SU otherwise. One key reserve, Deleon Brown, may be out tonight as he sustained a concussion Sunday. CU is only 5-10 ATS this year when laying points. As mentioned above, they'll be at Oregon this weekend, a date that they players and coaching staff are probably pointing to alot more than this one. The Buffs are also 0-4 ATS this season after allowing 60 pts or less in the previous game. Coming off a blowout like that has inflated this line. 8* Oregon State

10* Under Wizards/Pacers (8:05 ET): Three times these teams have met this season and the Over has cashed in all three. The last meeting took place less than a week ago, in the Nation's capital, with the Wizards prevailing 112-107. As is the case here, Indiana was coming off a loss to the Cavs. Only tonight the spot is a bit more difficult from the Pacers' perspective as they were in Cleveland last night. For a fifth consecutive game, Indiana gave up at least 110 pts (113 to be exact) as they fell pray to a barrage of three pointers from the World Champs. Washington is in the top five in three-point FG%, but their overall scoring is due to come to down as is the number of points allowed by Indiana. Look for the Under to hit in this one.

Washington has won 17 of its last 20 games to move into third place in the Eastern Conference. Their last win was quite impressive as they blew out Oklahoma City 120-98 at home. But there is no denying the fact that the Wiz are a much better team at home. In fact, something to note here is the fact they've played far more games at home (31) and than on the road (23) so far. Their road record is just 9-14 SU w/ the scoring average declining to 104.5 points per game. They've played all of one road game in February so far and fortunately for them, it came at Brooklyn. They still needed OT to prevail there. As alluded to earlier, the Wizards' scoring average from the L5 games is set to decline. The fact they have averaged 117.2 PPG over that timeframe is a bit misleading as that includes TWO overtime contests.

Indiana has lost five in a row, yet they are still sixth in the Eastern Conference. But a bit of a divide is starting to form between them and the top five. Having faced Cleveland twice in the L5 games hasn't helped. Last night, the Cavs made 18 three-pointers as Kyle Korver caught fire in the second half. I don't look for anyone on the Wizards to duplicate Korver's performance tonight. For the year, the Pacers allow just 103.2 PPG at home. The Under did still cash last night, mind you, ending a four-game Over streak and before that the Under had cashed in five straight Pacers games. Without rest, Indiana is just 3-8 SU this year, averaging 103 PPG. Don't be surprised to see BOTH teams' shooting a bit off in the final game before the All-Star Break. 10* Under Wizards/Pacers

8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): The Clippers are still w/o Chris Paul and facing a formidable schedule, but don't count this team out yet. They just concluded a grinding, five-game road trip w/ three consecutive wins, the last two both coming in the underdog role. The more impressive of those two came last time out as they beat Utah 88-72, a throwback defensive performance to the early portion of the season when they led the league in efficiency. Now they actually get to play a home game! Their only other time over the last 11 games that they got to play at Staples Center was unfortunately against the Warriors (on 2.2) and you get one guess as to how that went. Tonight, they host an Atlanta team I happen to feel is quite overrated. Lay the short number. 

The Hawks are now fourth in the Eastern Conference at 32-23 straight up. That SU record comes w/ a big caveat though as they've actually been outscored over the course of the year.This will be their third straight games out West. After losing by a single point at Sacramento, they topped Portland 109-104 as 2-pt dogs Monday night. Don't let that score fool you though as the game went to overtime and it was a bad shooting night for both teams. The Hawks shot only 38.6% from the floor, but were fortunate that Portland finished at 35.9%. One area that Atlanta was dominated was on the glass. Portland grabbed 78 rebounds for the game. That's a lot and the Blazers are hardly a great rebounding team. Atlanta was pretty fortunate to even make it to OT Monday as they needed a Paul Milsap buzzer beater at the end of regulation to get there. They also trailed by seven in the extra frame before closing them on 12-0 run. 

There's no Paul, but Blake Griffin is picking up the slack for the Clips by averaging 25.4 points, 9.8 rebounds and 6.8 assists the L5 games. While the team may not match its defensive performance from the last game, I expect improvement on the offensive end. They'd scored at least 100 pts in six straight games prior to Monday. Note that it was only three weeks ago that the Clippers went down to Atlanta and won outright as seven-point dogs. That was not only w/o Paul, but w/o Griffin as well. One player I expect to regress on the Atlanta side is Tim Hardaway Jr, who has scored in double figures 10 straight games. That's easily a career best stretch for him and should come to an end shortly. 8* LA Clippers

10* Indiana (9:00 ET): The Hoosiers are in a bad way right now. Some of that had to do w/ losing leading scorer James Blackmon. But Blackmon was back on the court Sunday when the team lost 75-63 to Michigan at Assembly Hall. It was their fifth loss in the last six games and the one win during that stretch was against Penn State and required three overtimes. So you would actually have to go all the way back to a January 21st home victory over Michigan State to find the last time this squad won a game in regulation. That sounds bad and I realize the road record isn't good (1-5 SU/ATS), but let us not forget this is a team that beat BOTH Kansas and North Carolina this year. Time to get back on track tonight. Take the points.

Minnesota is one of a handful of Big 10 teams I believe to be highly overrated (Maryland and Northwestern are the others). The Gophers actually ended January on a five-game losing streak. While they've certainly turned things around here in February (won three in a row), the competition has been weaker. Saturday saw them go to last place Rutgers and prevail 72-63. The Scarlet Knights shot the ball terribly and didn't rebound as well as they normally do. That was the Gophers second straight Big 10 road win, but they've come at the expense of the bottom two teams. The other was 68-59 at Illinois back on Feb 4, another game where they benefited from poor opponent shooting (38.1%). In between, there was a VERY fortuitous cover here at home against Iowa. That game, which went to double overtime, actually saw the Gophers cover as seven-point favorites, 101-89.

Minnesota is just 6-6 SU in league play and will have trouble containing this offense. Indiana comes in averaging over 80 PPG and is also a top 36 team nationally in rebounding. Lately, the offense has struggled, but that's had a lot to do w/ Blackmon. He's gone just 5 of 21 from the field in two games since returning to the lineup. That's gotta improve, right? With everyone starting to write off the Hoosiers, I feel now is the perfect opportunity to jump on board? I can see an outright upset here as these teams would be rated relatively even on a neutral floor. Even with the homecourt edge, Minnesota is favored by too much. 10* Indiana

8* Butler (8:30 ET): St. John's has covered five straight games, the latest being a minor upset of Seton Hall (at home) on Saturday. Meanwhile, Butler is off an outright loss at Providence (were three-point favorites). That and the fact that the Johnnie's upset the Bulldogs in the first meeting of the year have created some much needed value on the favorite tonight. Consider that Butler was an eight-point favorite in NYC when they lost to the Red Storm, 76-73, back on December 29th. That game saw St. John's shoot 54% from the floor, their best mark to date in conference play and well above their season-long average of 43.8%. HC Chris Mullin has - somewhat shockingly - turned things around here, but his team is due to get blown out. Lay the points.

Butler is considered to be a NCAA Tournament team right now, but losing at Providence Saturday certainly won't help their cause. The team is still ranked in the Top 25 mind you (#24), even though they've lost three of four. That was after an 18-3 start though that included an 11-0 SU mark at home. The Bulldogs have actually lost B2B home games - to Georgetown and Creighton - as they allowed both of those teams to shoot the lights out. But usually it's Butler that has no issue scoring here in Hinkle Fieldhouse. They average 79.8 PPG on 50.0% shooting here. I expect the team's leading scorer Kelan Martin (15.4 PPG) to have a bounce back effort tonight after totaling only 20 pts in the L3 games. Notable is the Bulldogs' 3-1 SU/ATS record this year off a Big East loss.

St. John's had a full week off prior to winning Saturday. Their opponents (Seton Hall) were coming off a pair of overtime wins, so certainly it was an ideal spot for the Red Storm. Another key in winning that game was turnover margin. They forced 18 and converted those into 30 points. Meanwhile, they turned it over only eight times themselves. Maybe they've simply been undervalued, but the bottom line is that the only two times St. John's has been favored in league play this year came against last place DePaul. The market catches up with them tonight.  8* Butler

10* Boston (7:35 ET): Yes, there is no denying that Philadelphia is much improved this year. That's obvious by the fact they are 12-9 straight up since January 8th. They've also covered 16 of their last 22 games as well, including three consecutive upsets coming into tonight. They swept their way through the Southeast, beating Orlando, Miami and Charlotte, all games where they were an underdog. But let's keep a few things in perspective, okay? Most notably, even with all the improvement, this is still one of the five worst teams in basketball. They have also NEVER had a win streak of four games over the last three seasons. In fact, their only two three-game win streaks both came last month and in each instance, they failed to cover the next time out. Both of those were double-digit road losses, at Washington and at Atlanta. History repeats itself tonight. 

Boston has also won its last three games, two of them as road underdogs. Last time out, they finished off their Western Conference swing w/ a 111-98 win as 1.5-pt chalk at Dallas. This is a very hot team right now; their only loss in the last 11 games came at Sacramento (!) on Feb 8. Right now, the Celtics have a golden opportunity in front of them. They are #2 in the East, only 2.5 games back of Cleveland and the Cavs are now going to be w/o Kevin Love for the next six weeks. They can pick up as many as 1.5 games before the All-Star Break as they have not only this game, but Chicago tomorrow night. Meanwhile, Cleveland hosts Indiana in the second game of a back to back tonight. There will be a lot of chatter during the Break about whether or not Boston can overtake the defending World Champs. 

One thing is for certain and that's the Celtics have had no problem beating the 76ers the last few years. They've won all 10 matchups the L3 seasons, though they are 0-2 ATS against them this year. Both wins were by four points or less. But Philly will again be w/o the service of Joel Embiid tonight. The Celtics won at both Portland and Utah despite being down two starters and now have Jae Crowder back. Avery Bradley is still out, but that shouldn't matter as the 76ers allow over 108 PPG on the road. The Sixers also remain the least efficient offense in the league. Isaiah Thomas continues to lead the way for Boston w/ three straight 20+ pt games. He should have another big one here. 10* Boston

8* East Carolina (7:00 ET): This is most definitely a tricky spot for the road favorite, Temple. Not only are the Owls playing the second of B2B road games, they pulled an upset in the first leg, beating Temple 74-62 as six-point dogs Sunday. It's a shorter turnaround compared to their opponent as East Carolina last played Saturday. Admittedly, ECU isn't exactly in the finest form right now (lost 9 of 11). But the Pirates are 10-4 SU at home where they hold their opponents to just 58.4 points per game. Furthermore, there's a little value on them for this rematch as in the 1st meeting w/ Temple, they were nine-point road underdogs. Yes, there had to be adjustment after losing the game 81-62, but the market has swung too far against ECU here. Take the points. 

Even after beating Memphis, Temple is still near the bottom of the American, just one place ahead of East Carolina. The Owls entered Sunday at just 4-8 SU in conference play, so I question how worthy they are of laying points on the road. This will be just the second time as road chalk this year in conf play. They pushed the 1st time, winning 79-71 at Tulane, who is worse than East Carolina. Sunday in Memphis, the Owls won due a strong close to the first half. They actually trailed 23-14 early before going on an 18-0 run over an 8:42 span. That run essentially decided the game. Like I said earlier though, this is not your typically strong Temple squad. They've been outscored by about four points per game in conference play and particularly concerning here is that they are 0-4 ATS off an conference win this year. 

East Carolina did not shoot the ball well in the first meeting with Temple (3 of 14 from three-point range). The Pirates aren't a great shooting team to begin with, so that's hardly a surprise. Still, we should see improvement at home tonight. But the real improvement should come on the defensive end. That's a really impressive number that they're holding visitors to here at home. Note they held Cincinnati to just 55 pts in their visit last month. The Pirates have covered five of the last seven games overall. A big key here is that leading scorer BJ Tyson, who has been out w/ a knee injury, could be back on the floor for the first time since Jan 11. He was in uniform (but did not play) for Saturday's disappointing road loss to USF (ECU were 2-pt favorites). ECU did beat Temple here in Greenville last season in a near identical price range. 8* East Carolina

8* Rhode Island (7:00 ET): Fordham, like the team we played against yday (Marist), is not a good team. Thus I can't see why anyone would endorse them, even in this price range. The Rams may not be the worst team in the Atlantic 10 this year, but as per usual they're near the bottom of the league. Their only win over the L5 games was a double OT affair at St. Joe's. Tonight, they'll travel to Rhode Island to face another group of Rams, this one better and likely more angry. The Rhodies lost here at home their last time out, 75-74 to Dayton, a result which knocked them 2.5 games behind the conference leaders. The Rams are most certainly a "bubble team" right now in the eyes of the selection committee and really could use a blowout win in this spot. They'll get it. 

Any time a team loses by a single point at home, there's going to be a feeling of disappointment. But for Rhode Island last Friday, they REALLY had to be kicking themselves. They led a good Dayton team 73-69 w/ just 24 seconds left, but let it slip away despite holding the Flyers to 41.1% shooting for the game. That's a scenario where you HAVE to close. Two losses to the Flyers (by a combined five points) may ultimately sink URI's postseason hopes, but the bottom line is this team had won and covered four in a row prior to Friday's setback. Those four wins all came by a remarkably consistent 8 to 12 pt margin against the "middle class" of the A-10. This is a matchup w/ a bottom tier team that the should win by a larger margin. Friday was just the second home loss of the year for the Rams, who are outscoring visitors by 12.2 PPG to begin with this year. 

Fordham only averages 62.5 PPG on the road, so they'll have trouble keeping pace tonight. This will be their only meeting w/ Rhode Island this season, but the Rams should take it very seriously considering they actually lost at Fordham last year. But at home, URI won by 16. Both games saw Rhode Island shoot better than 50% from the floor. Given that scoring average, it should be no surprise that Fordham doesn't shoot the ball away from home. They're at 39.6% for the year. They also can't stop their opponents, particularly from three-point range. The fact they let home teams shoot 43.1% from behind the arc is really alarming. Rhode Island may just be 2-8 SU against the top 100 of the RPI, but they are 14-0 SU against everyone else. 8* Rhode Island

10* Toronto (8:05 ET): I find it very odd that the Bulls are a perfect 9-0 - both straight up and against the spread - the past nine meetings with the Raptors. During this time, Toronto has been the better overall team, without question. Right now they may be slipping (lost 10 of 14), but I think a case can be made that Toronto is still a top two or three team in the East. (Their net efficiency rating is still the best!). Fortunately, Chicago is not playing well either of late as they've lost three straight, all in embarrassing fashion. Both teams are looking to atone for miserable performances Sunday as Toronto blew a double digit lead at home to Detroit. The price tag might seem high, but that's because the Bulls are going to be w/o both Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler again. Lay the points.

Chicago just wrapped up a 2-4 SU road trip (all non-conference games) w/ three consecutive double digit losses. One was to Phoenix. The latest came Sunday at Minnesota and there we saw how dire things can get w/o Wade and Butler. By early in the second quarter, the Bulls were behind 45-19 and the game was basically decided. I see no reason to expect any kind of marked improvement tonight from a very short-handed squad. Paul Zipser and Nikola Mirotic are also likely out here. Many times, the first home game back after a long road trip is a really tough spot. While the Bulls are 5-0 SU/ATS off three consecutive losses this year, right now they just don't have the horses to compete. I said it many times earlier in the season, but I was surprised when things got off to seemingly a good start for this roster. I never viewed this as a playoff team. 

Toronto still doesn't have Patrick Patterson, but they are far healthier than Chicago. They also let a 16-point lead get away Sunday at home against the Pistons. That can't happen. I envision the team coming into this game highly motivated, especially after PG Kyle Lowry ripped their recent play. Offense is no issue for the Raptors as they are tied for second in the league in efficiency (w/ Houston), trailing only the obvious #1 (Golden State). The defense has been an issue, but as I said in Sunday's analysis, Chicago is not a good offensive team. I played the Under in the Bulls' loss to the T'wolves, which cashed. To rehash the facts, Chicago is the worst three-point shooting team in the league, both in terms of percentage and number made. That's including all the games that both Butler and Wade played in. Without that duo, plus two key reserves, they're going to have a REAL struggle to keep pace here. 10* Toronto

10* St. Peter's (7:30 ET): Marist is a very bad basketball team. They have just three conference wins this season, the last one coming all the way back on January 16th against Niagara. Since then, it's been seven straight MAAC losses, five of them by coming by double digits. One of those five was to tonight's opponent, St. Peter's, an 81-65 loss that took place at home. Tonight, they head to Jersey City as decided underdogs and I don't see this game going well for them. St. Peter's, playing a pretty road-heavy schedule of late, has covered six of its last seven games and were it not for an an abundance of close losses, they'd be right there w/ Monmouth, challenging for the MAAC regular season title. I see them "putting the boots" to the underdog in this one. Lay the points.

Incredibly, five of St. Peter's six conference losses have been by three points or less. While five of their last six games overall have taken place on the road, ironically it was the one home game that that accounts for their lone ATS loss during that stretch. They fell at the buzzer, 72-70 to Canisius, as three-point favorites. That and a two-point home loss to Niagara last month really sting. The Peacocks have also recently lost by just a single point at Monmouth in overtime. That was after beating the MAAC leaders here at home, 71-61, earlier in the year. But let's talk about what the Peacocks do well, shall we? Last week, they went 2-0 SU/ATS on the road, crushing both Quinnipiac and Manhattan by a combined 48 points. Sunday in Manhattan, they shot 56% from the floor and never trailed. This is also a very good defensive team. They allow just 62.6 PPG, which is 14th best in the country. 

While SPU went 2-0 on the road last week, Marist was 0-2 at home. The Red Foxes lost by 20 to Fairfield and then by seven to Siena. Unlike tonight's opponent, they do not defend well. On the road, Marist gives up an alarming average of 80.1 points per game. They've also shot just 37.2% from the floor over the last five games. On the road, they are just 2-12. Here they'll have to contend with the fact that St. Peter's is 12-4 ATS in conference play and 6-1 ATS after holding its previous opponent to 60 pts or less. I think a decent case could be made that St. Peter's is a major darkhorse come conference tourney time. These teams are in completely different classes right now. 10* St. Peter's

8* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): On Friday, Eastern Michigan failed to do what Ohio did the week prior. That's beat Akron at home. The Eagles fell for a fourth consecutive time as the Zips shot a blistering 52.9% from the floor. That 87-76 final was EMU's sixth loss in the last seven games and after leading the MAC East at one point, the Eagles are now just 13-12 SU on the season. Meanwhile, Ohio has had an interesting L4 games, alternating a pair of upsets w/ SU losses as a favorite. After being Akron two Saturdays ago, the Bobcats fell at home (as 9-pt favorites) to Central Michigan. They responded by pulling a minor upset at Ball State on Friday, 79-77 as 1.5-pt dogs. I just can't envision Eastern Michigan losing again here, especially considering they're at home, so I'll lay the very short number. 

Though I was on Ohio when they beat Akron (Zips' 1st MAC loss of the season), I warned that this was not the same team we saw at the start of the season. That's because they lost leading scorer Antonio Campbell for the year (knee injury) back on January 20th. Again, the team has alternated wins and losses in the six games w/o him, three times losing SU as a favorite. Another of their three remaining double digit scorers, Kenny Kaminski, was injured in the last game. However, he may still play here. But what Bobcats' backers need to be concerned about here is their team gives up 76.8 PPG on the road. Also, it was an awful shooting night the first time they faced EMU this season. In an ugly 53-49 loss, Ohio shot just 30% from the floor. That was at home w/ Campbell in the lineup, mind you. Another troubling sign is Ohio's propensity to blow big leads. Twice in the L4 games, they've lost a lead of at least 18 points. They actually blew all of a 25-pt lead Friday at Ball State before pulling out the two-point victory. 

Eastern Michigan also needs to be concerned about its defense. They've allowed two straight opponents to shoot better than 52% from the floor and on Friday, Akron hit 18 three-pointers against them. Ohio can be a deadly three-point shooting team as well, but we've already see the Eagles put the clamps down on them once. What EMU need not worry about here is their offense, which averages 87.0 PPG here in Ypsilanti. Note Ohio actually led EMU 26-19 at the half in the 1st meeting, so that's another blown lead. Having lost four in a row, Eastern Michigan is a desperate team here. I see them picking up their first home win since 1.17 tonight. 8* Eastern Michigan

8* Under Warriors/Nuggets (9:05 ET): This is the highest O/U line for any NBA game to date this season. If there were any two teams capable of going Over, it would probably be the Warriors and Nuggets, but I shouldn't have to explain to you the confluence of events required for a game to go Over an O/U line this high. The previous high O/U line for a game this season was 238.0 for Warriors-Rockets on Jan 20th. That game stayed Under, albeit barely, with Golden State winning 125-108. Note that was also the highest O/U line for any NBA game in almost SEVEN years! Golden State is #2 in the league in defensive efficiency (something that's rarely talked about). The Under is 19-9 in their road games including a perfect 8-0 when favored between -9.5 and -12 points. Take the Under here. 

Denver is the top Over team in the league. They are 37-16 Over in all games including a remarkable 30-9 when the total is 210 points or higher. Their last two games both went Over as they allowed 123 points to the Knicks and 125 points to the Warriors. But both of those games were on the road. Certainly, Golden State will "get theirs" tonight, but it's worth noting that the Nuggets allowed only 87 points (to Dallas) in their last home game. Shifting to the offensive end of the floor, Denver is likely to struggle to score tonight considering they could be w/o a number of key players. We know that leading scorer Danillo Gallinari is out indefinitely due to a groin injury. Kenneth Faried, Emmanuel Mudiay, Darrell Arthur and the recently acquired Mason Plumlee also may all not be uniform here!

I had the Over in Golden State's Saturday night showdown in Oklahoma City (Kevin Durant's return to OKC). The Dubs did not disappoint me, scoring 130 points in rout. It was their third straight game scoring 120+ and this is easily the top team in the league in offensive efficiency. But coming off a high profile win such as that, I think there could be a bit of a letdown tonight and lack of offensive efficiency. They are 4-1 Under their last five games against teams w/ losing records. Eight of the past nine meetings w/ Denver have gone Over, including a 127-119 win back on January 2nd. But this is obviously a higher total than any of those nine previous matchups and over the L2 seasons only that last one would have gone Over this total. I anticipate a Golden State blowout here w/ them taking their foot "off the gas" late, leading to a low-scoring 4Q and an Under. 8* Under Warriors/Nuggets

8* LA Lafayette (8:00 ET): Maybe more than any other conference in America, the Sun Belt seems to take perverse enjoyment in making its members play two road games over the span of three days. (Note: The Pac 12 typically does this a lot too, only Thurs-Sat). Tonight, South Alabama is forced to do the deed after pulling out a three-point win at LA Monroe on Saturday. This will actually be the Jaguars' third consecutive road game, they won the 1st too (at Troy, 76-71, as six-point underdogs), so this is an attempt at a somewhat improbable sweep. Prior to the trip starting, the team was just 2-7 SU in "true" road games this year. They'll be visiting LA Lafayette, who just lost their fourth game in a row Saturday, at home, to Troy. Given situation and circumstance, I'll back the Ragin Cajuns here. Lay the points. 

LA Lafayette is just 4-8 SU in conference play, but the majority of losses have been close. Four have come by five points or less. Now they did just give up 100+ pts for a second time. Troy hit the century mark on the nose thanks to a career-high 31 pts from Jordan Varnado. The 100-88 final was a tad bit misleading in the sense that it was a six-point game in the final 30 seconds. (Troy made 12 of 14 FT's in the final 1:19). Defensive ineptitude aside, the Ragin Cajuns can score, especially here at home. They average 87.4 PPG here at the Cajundome, so it's actually pretty head-scratching that they've lost four times here. Prior to the loss to Troy, the team had lost B2B road games - both by four points or less.

South Alabama has covered four in a row, their only loss during that time coming by just three points at Georgia State. So it would appear to the "naked eye" that these are two teams trending in opposite directions. However, considering that the Jaguars average only 69.8 PPG on the road, it's right to question just how they'll be able to keep pace here. The team's overall field goal percentage has also been up of late and is thus likely to start regressing back to the mean (42% for the year) sooner rather than later. Both recent road wins were close for USA; on Saturday they faced the last place team in the conference and won by only three. That snapped a seven-game losing streak to Monroe, so there could be a bit of a letdown here in what shapes up as a tough spot anyway. 8* LA Lafayette

full analysis soon

8* Virginia (6:30 ET): In past analysis, I have not hid my affection for HC Tony Bennett and his Virginia Cavaliers. The Hoos are off perhaps their finest win of the year here having downed Louisville 71-55 on Monday. That was in Charlottesville and a much needed performance after dropping two of their previous three (both losses by 4 pts or less). Here, they'll hit the road to face a team they recently destroyed in Charlottesville, that being Va Tech, who found itself on the wrong end of a 71-48 beatdown back on Feb 1. As a result, the number for tonight's rematch is obviously a bit inflated, but in my opinion it is still not high enough. The Hokies are simply nowhere near UVA's class and the Cavaliers will take this game seriously considering they lost LY's visit to Blacksburg. Lay the points. 

Virginia continues to lead the nation in points allowed, giving up just 54.0 per game. As mentioned earlier, they held Va Tech to only 48 in the first meeting. The Hokies shot a woeful 35.7% from the floor in that game (including 3 of 20 from 3-pt range!) in what ended up being the most lopsided margin of victory in this in-state rivalry over the last 25 years. Even with the scene shifting to Blacksburg, I can't really see much justification for Va Tech keeping this one close. The Hokies are 12-1 SU at Cassell Coliseum this season, averaging over 85 PPG, but Virginia has won 23 of its last 33 ACC road games. While 3-3 SU over its last six games, two of Va Tech's wins were by a single point. They lost again (at Miami) on Wednesday.

Virginia has had an extra two days to prepare here, which should be considered an advantage they probably did not need. If there is one area that the Cavs do need work on it's limiting turnovers. They have given it away 29 times the L2 games after averaging just nine per game previously. Fortunately, Va Tech does not force many TO's. Again, Virginia is not bothered by playing on the road where they've gone 7-2 against the spread. On Monday, they looked as good as any team in the country (in the 2nd half at least), outscoring Louisville 39-21. Remember the Cardinals came into that game as hot as any team in the country. I believe Virginia is a top 5 team nationally and should be pretty close to that ranking after a win tonight. 8* Virginia

10* SMU (4:00 ET): Cincinnati is one of the few remaining teams in the country w/o a conference loss. The others are: Vermont (America East), Princeton (Ivy) and Gonzaga (WCC). However, a case could certainly be made that the Bearcats are NOT the clear-cut best team in the American. Today they'll face what will be their toughest conference game of the season, a trip to SMU. Not only are the Mustangs perfect at Moody Coliseum this season (8-1 ATS too!), they're 46-3 SU here the L3 seasons. They have also won seven straight, six of those by double digits, since losing the first meeting w/ Cincinnati by just two points. That 66-64 loss (as 4.5 pt dogs) on Jan 12 is the Mustangs ONLY loss dating back to November! Last Saturday, we saw three teams w/o a conference loss get priced as underdogs. All three lost, so I'll lay the points in this situation.

SMU comes in averaging a very impressive 1.18 points per possession in conference play. That's quite the efficient offense there. At the same time, they also are giving up only 58.6 points per game, which is fewest in the country and third fewest in the country. They are led by Duke transfer Semi Ojeleye, who is one of only two players in the conference averaging both 17 pts and 5 rebounds per game. He dropped a career-high 30 points (also had 10 boards) in Thursday's 66-50 win over Temple. Scary is the fact the team didn't shoot particularly well (37.9 FG%) and still won comfortably, on the road no less. They completely dominated Temple on the glass, outrebounding them 49-32. They also outrebounded Cincy in the first meeting. The fact that SMU just cracked the Top 25 is a bit preposterous. I've had them safely ranked in my Top 20 for some time.

Cincinnati was able to build a lead as big as 15 pts in that first meeting as they shot the ball much better than SMU, particularly from three-point range. But good luck w/ repeating that feat considering SMU outscores its visitors by 22 PPG at home. Both Bearcats losses this year took place out on the road. Granted the last one took place all the way back on Dec 10 at Butler. Like SMU, Cincy shot the ball poorly in its last game, yet still won by double digits. That should tell you right there that these are easily the two best teams in the American. But the key today will be the homecourt advantage plus the fact the Bearcats are just 1-5 ATS this season vs. teams allowing fewer than 64 PPG. 10* SMU

10* Under Bulls/T'wolves (3:35 ET): Minnesota has now gone Over the total in eight straight games. The last one was quite the high scoring affair as they lost 122-106 here at home to New Orleans. The team's defense continues to be a concern as they've now allowed an average of 113.8 points the last five games. Opponents are shooting above 50% against them during this time! With Tom Thibodeau in place as head coach for the foreseeable future, one has to think that this issue will eventually be remedied. One issue that won't be remedied this year, however, is the health of Zach LaVine. One of the team's three top scorers, LaVine has been lost for the year to an ACL tear. Other than Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, no other player on the team now averages more than 11 PPG.

Minnesota's opponent Sunday afternoon is Chicago. The Bulls have dropped their last two games as today will be the finale of a six-game West Coast swing. Wednesday's loss, while by 31 points, was at least understandable as it came against Golden State. However, there's simply no sugarcoating how bad Friday's 115-97 loss to Phoenix looks. They even got both Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade back in the lineup for that game. Butler, who will be a starter in next weekend's All-Star Game, may not play here as his heel continues to give him trouble. Again, the Bulls are coming off B2B sub-100 pt games and the Under is 18-9-1 in their road games. On the bright side, like Minnesota, their defense should improve as they've given up far more PPG than usual of late. Playing Golden State clearly skews their recent numbers.

Starting in place of LaVine is Brandon Rush, who averages all of 4.8 points per game. When these teams met earlier in the season, with both Butler and LaVine in the lineups, the final score was 99-94 in favor of Minnesota. Despite that, the O/U line remains basically identical for today's rematch. Note both teams rank in the bottom eight in the league in pace of play. In terms of "true shooting," which weighs both FT and 3-pt percentage, the Bulls are next to last in the league. That's due to their last place ranking in 3-pt percentage (.314). In terms of three-point FG's made per game, these teams rank 28th (Minnesota) and 30th (Chicago). They were a combined 10 of 36 from behind the arc in the first meeting. All of the above factors have me on the Under in this one. 10* Under Bulls/T'wolves

10* Over Warriors/Thunder (8:35 ET): Golden State is playing the second of B2B road games while OKC last played Thursday against a Cleveland team that decided to rest starters. But the Warriors should not struggle to score tonight in Kevin Durant's return to Oklahoma City. I say that not only because the Dubs just scored 122 points on a very good Memphis defense last night. But also because the Thunder have allowed 121 and 122 points in their two meeetings with Golden State this year. Thus, the key for tonight's game on ABC will be the Thunder offense, which does average 109.7 PPG at home despite a paltry 21st ranking in offensive efficiency this season. I expect this game to be played at a fast pace. Take the Over. 

At this point, I probably do not have to run through the accolades of the Golden State offense. They are #1 in efficiency - by a wide margin - as they were last year. They also again are pacing the league in points per game at 118.3. They've been above the average in four of the past five games. Last night they scored 122 on 50% shooting against one of the top defenses in the league. They did so w/ Steph Curry scoring only 18 points. Draymond Green had only four, but actually registered a triple double w/ 10 steals. Kevin Durant scored only 24, but you know he'll be highly motivated here. In the two previous games vs. the Thunder this year (both in Oakland), Durant has averaged 39.5 points per game.

Oklahoma City should be able to keep relative pace here. Speaking of pace, both teams are top seven in the league in that department, so this should be a fast paced game. Because they are #2 in pace, the Warriors are allowing over 105 PPG, same as the Thunder. The previous two games this season both stayed Under as OKC didn't shoot well either time, but at home I expect their offensive numbers to improve. 10* Over Warriors/Thunder

10* Iowa State (6:00 ET): All the goodwill that came with last Saturday's upset of Kansas (in Lawrence!) was quickly swept away as Iowa State was upset by Texas on Tuesday. Given it was the second of back to back road games and what the Cyclones did against the Jayhawks, maybe such a result was inevitable. They came out of the gate ice cold, making only 2 of their first 17 shots from the floor. They were down 30-13 to start the game. They eventually fought back, tying the game in the final minute, but lost on a pair of free throws in the closing seconds. While the Cyclones have now dropped three of four overall, I like their chances of bouncing back tonight against an Oklahoma team that is not playing well. ISU is 6-1 ATS the L7 games in the series, including a five-point win in Norman earlier this year. 

OU was actually a two-point favorite in that first meeting, but that was before we knew how bad this season would be for the Sooners. They've now lost six in a row and are coming off a tough result Wednesday vs WVU as they scored only 50 points at home. That was a bitter pill to swallow considering they led for much of the first half. But their shooting never got on track (33% for the game) and they struggled badly against the Mountaineers' press. This is clearly the worst team in the Big 12 this year as they're just 2-9 SU in conference play. They've failed to top 70 pts in any of the L4 games and probably won't here considering ISU allows only 63.9 PPG at home. 

While the loss to Texas was disappointing, last Saturday's win at Kansas shows Iowa State can play w/ anyone. With the exception of a loss to Iowa, there hasn't been a single game this year they haven't been in. They lead the conference in transition points (20.5 per game) and PG Monte Morris is a player to keep an eye out for. His assist to turnover ratio (4.59) is currently on pace to be the best in league history and the best by any player in the country in the L20 years. I already mentioned how the Iowa defense performs at home, well, the offense is pretty good too. It averages 82.3 PPG, so it's an avg MOV of 18.4 PPG here in Ames. I think the Cyclones are a lot better than their given credit for; I'd certainly consider them "top 25 worthy" in fact. They'll show that here. 10* Iowa State

8* Charlotte (5:05 ET): The Clippers are in the midst of a pretty tough stretch and the fact they are w/o their leader (Chris Paul) has made things all the more brutal. Going back to January 21st, they've had to play 9 of their last 10 games on the road. The lone home game was against Golden State. This will be their fourth straight game out East and the trip will finally end in Utah Monday. They are off a win, but that came at the expense of the dysfunctional Knicks. Prior to that, they'd dropped seven of nine and three straight. Meanwhile, injuries are also a legitimate reason to cite for Charlotte's current slide, although they are healthier now. Still they have just one win in the last nine games and it was a close one against Brooklyn. This is a game they NEED to win. Lay the points. 

Thursday night saw the Hornets fall here at home to the Rockets, 107-95 as 2.5-pt dogs. A poor third quarter (outscored 36-22) and turnovers (season-high 22) were to blame for that one. Houston is no stalwart defensively, so it was definitely disappointing to see Charlotte score only 95 points. They average more than 105 PPG for the year. But the team has not shot the ball well recently. That should change here facing a Clippers defense which has fallen off a cliff. Los Angeles now allows 109.6 PPG on the road this season and just gave up 115 to the Knicks. That was after allowing 118 against Toronto.

Lost in the all the drama surrounding Carmelo Anthony and Charles Oakley Wednesday night is the fact the Clips actually trailed the Knicks by 10 points in the fourth quarter. Blake Griffin is starting to play well again after returning from his own injury, but w/o Paul this is clearly a much worse team. It took a unique set of circumstances to come back and beat the Knicks, which is pretty embarrassing. I look at a Hornets team that has covered only one of its last 10 games (last Saturday at Utah) and seen an opportunity to "buy low." 8* Charlotte

8* Oklahoma State (4:00 ET): Oklahoma State lost outright as a favorite its last game while Texas won straight up as a dog. That typically creates a situation where there's value on the home side and this afternoon in Stillwater is no different. Beating Iowa State (at home) and having a 6-1 ATS road record may look impressive. But note that the Longhorns are an ugly 0-10 SU outside of Austin this season! Oklahoma State, whose games typically don't lack for scoring, averages an impressive 93.5 PPG in Stillwater. So I'll call for the Pokes to bounce back from Wednesday's disappointing result where they scored only 69 pts here and lost to Baylor by three points. They were actually 1.5-pt chalk for that matchup, notable because Baylor has lost only two games all year. That should tell you right there about how the marketplace views the Cowboys. Lay the points here.

The discrepancy between what Oklahoma State averages at home and Texas averages on the road is quite significant. The 'Horns average just 61.9 PPG on the road, so as you can see it will take quite the yeoman's effort on the defensive end to keep pace today. I'm not sure they have it in them. They did pull off an 82-79 win over OK State, in Austin, back on January 4th. That still stands as UT's highest scoring game - by a wide margin - in Big 12 play. They were down at the half, however, and were aided by an edge in FT attempts, an area where they typically do not convert. Note that wasn't a good spot for OSU as it was a "sandwich game" between West Virginia and Baylor. Tevin Mack had a career-high 27 pts for Texas, but is of course now out indefinitely due to a suspension. Given Mack's absence, it was pretty shocking to see the Horns upset Iowa State earlier in the week. Again, that game was shockingly decided at the FT line, which is not Texas' strong suit. Iowa State also shot the ball terribly early on. Perhaps that had something to do w/ the letdown spot they were in, coming off their own upset of Kansas.

OSU had a five-game win streak snapped w/ the loss to Baylor. Again, the idea of a letdown spot was in play as the Cowboys were off an impressive upset of West Virginia, in Morgantown no less! Playing two top 10 teams in a row is a tough spot. This will be a clear drop in class. Texas won't shoot the ball as well as Baylor did Wednesday as the loss of Mack clearly should catch up w/ them. OSU did hold Baylor w/o a field goal over the final four minutes of the game, so they can play some defense too. 8* Oklahoma State

10* North Dakota State (3:00 ET): North Dakota State currently leads the Summit League, but two teams are within one game of them. They faced one of the two today, at home, as Denver comes calling. This will be a revenge spot for the Bison, who suffered one of their three league losses this year at Denver, nearly one month ago. They were embarrassed actually, losing 79-55 as a two-point favorite. Given what the spread was there and what it is now, it sure looks as if there's some substantial value on the favorite for this rematch. They are off a blowout of South Dakota State on Thursday, which thankfully snapped a two-game losing streak. Denver is off B2B wins, one a blowout of Oral Roberts (as an underdog) and then a close call at home vs. Ft. Wayne last Saturday. 

The fact that Denver has been off for a week may have influenced this line as well. But I'm highly skeptical of this team being able to replicate recent performances. Back on Jan 31, they shot a ridiculous 72 percent in the second half against Oral Roberts, which led to a 93-69 win as three-point dogs. The Pioneers are a good shooting team (50% in conf play!), but that's taking things to an unsustainable level. Sure enough, their next time out they declined to 41.7%, but still managed to beat Ft Wayne thanks to C.J. Bobbitt's buzzer beater in overtime, which gave the team a 76-73 win as 2.5-pt home favorites. While having only played twice in the past 11 days seems like a nice luxury, it could lead to some rust and certainly NDSU will not be lacking for motivation here.

The Bison experienced a dreadful shooting night in the 1st meeting vs. Denver as they finished a lousy 31.7% from the floor (19 of 60!). That is easily their worst offensive showing of conference play. After losing as favorites to both IUPUI and South Dakota last week, NDSU bounced back by making over 51% of its shots in an 82-65 rout of South Dakota State on Wednesday. Note that the Bison have been a favorite in every Summit League game thus far. At home, their record is 9-2 SU and their scoring average jumps to 79.5 PPG. They have hit 80 pts in 7 of 10 Summit League games thus far. This is a pretty deep team w/ seven different players scoring at least 18 pts in one game this season. 10* North Dakota State

10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): I certainly am not averse to buying low on bad news. In this instance, the "bad news" for the Bucks is that for a second time in three years Jabari Parker has suffered a season-ending knee injury. Parker's permanent departure from the lineup comes at a time when Kris Middleton had finally rejoined it. Compounding matters is that Milwaukee is ice cold right now. After looking like a legit player in the Eastern Conference for much of the first half, they've dropped 11 of 13 - both SU and ATS. But help arrives tonight in the form of a visit from the lowly Lakers. Sure, Los Angeles has covered six of seven, but they just got blown out in Detroit and this will be the finale of a five-game Eastern trip. You have to wonder what they have left in the tank. Lay the points.

Even w/o Parker, I believe this line should be close to double digits. Parker, who started at power forward, was second on the team in scoring. But Giannis Antekounmpo is still here and Middleton is now back. I think there's been a clear overreaction to the Parker injury by the marketplace. Even as the losses have started to pile up, the Bucks still sport a positive net efficiency rating. I used the phrase "buy low" in the first sentence of this analysis and it's something I say often. Milwaukee is not as bad as they've looked lately, particularly in the Heat game Wednesday. Strangely, that loss to Miami dropped them to 0-7 SU/ATS when playing with three or more days rest. They're .500 in all other games and have a positive point differential.

This is a really low number to lay to the Lakers on the road. Luke Walton's team is just 6-24 SU on the road, giving up over 112 points per game. This is the worst team in the league in terms of defensive efficiency. Walton has been trying out some different lineups of late, which while smart for the long-term, will also lead to short-term struggles. When priced as a road underdog (as they are here), the Lakers are being outscored by an awful 12.8 points per game. Milwaukee's scoring increases rather dramatically at home anyway, so even w/o Parker, I expect plenty of points from them tonight in what virtually shapes up as "must-win" for them. 10* Milwaukee

10* Under Pelicans/T'wolves (8:05 ET): Minnesota comes into this game on a seven-game Over streak. The Over has also hit the L5 times they've played New Orleans. But, for several reasons, I think we'll be seeing less points scored than expected tonight. First off, both teams' defenses are due to improve. Minnesota is giving up an average of 114.4 points its last five games. That's well above their season average of 105.6 PPG and 10 PPG more than what they allow at home this year. Having faced two of the most efficient offenses in the league during that time (Cleveland, Toronto) didn't help matters. New Orleans is also due to start giving up less. They were torched for 127 pts by Utah on Wednesday, one of their highest totals allowed all season. Finally, the Pelicans scoring average dips rather dramatically on the road. Therefore, I'm on the Under.

Minnesota did beat Toronto Wednesday, 112-109 as three-point dogs. That win snapped a four-game losing streak. That said, the T'wolves allowed the Raptors to shoot 53.2% from the floor, something HC Tom Thibodeau relentlessly harped on afterwards. So I expect the defensive end to be a real point of emphasis tonight. Toronto also made 11 of 24 three-pointers in that game, something I don't think New Orleans is capable of doing. Speaking of three-point shooting, Minnesota's isn't very good either. They are just 28th in the league in 3PM per game. They're also a surprising 25th in pace of play. Remember that they just lost one of their three top players - Zach LaVine - to a season-ending injury as well. This is not a deep team. Other than LaVine, Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, no other player averages more than 10.5 PPG. 

New Orleans also allowed a high shooting percentage in its last game. Utah made over 54% of its FGA in a 127-94 rout Wednesday and that game was played in the Big Easy. One has to assume the Pelicans defense can only improve after that poor effort. However, I'm not so sure about the offense. This team averages only 98.8 PPG on the road. That's the third lowest average in the league. While Anthony Davis likely improves on his poor performance vs. the Jazz (scored only 12 pts), he probably won't come close to matching the 45 he scored against the T'wolves the last time these teams met, which was a home game. Because of the low PPG, the Under is 15-9 in Pelicans' road games this season. The Under is actually now 64-39-3 the L106 road games, so this is a long-term trend. 10* Under Pelicans/T'wolves

8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): We have two teams trending in totally opposite directions here. Miami has, improbably, won 12 in a row and covered the spread in all 12 games. Brooklyn has lost 11 straight and is a hideous 1-22 SU its L23 games. The Nets' current 13-game home losing streak is the longest to ever begin a calendar year! But I'm going to buck the trends and back the underdog Friday night at the Barclays Center. Why would I do such a thing? Well, in addition to the simple laws of regression, the Nets have certainly been more competitive of late. They just took Washington to overtime Wednesday night, which made it B2B covers as their six losses have all been by single digits. Consider this number is nearly identical to what the Heat were asked to lay - in Miami - just 12 days ago! Take the points.

Miami's current win streak may be the biggest shocker of the NBA season so far. It has more than doubled their total number of wins for the season as they were 11-30 SU before it began. Interestingly though, they have been favored in just four of the 12 games. While they've obviously covered all four spots, note over half of the wins during the streak have been by eight points or less. I'd still be leery of laying this many points w/ them, especially on the road. Sure they are 7-3 ATS as a favorite so far in 2016-17, but this will be only the third such time on the road and by far the most points they've been asked to lay in any road game this season. Even after factoring in the current win streak, Miami's road record is still only 10-17 SU and they're being outscored by 4.3 points per game. 

It's not like Brooklyn is great anywhere, but at least seven of their nine wins this year have come at home. The last one was January 2nd, but as I said earlier, they've been more competitive of late. This will be their third time facing Miami during the Heat's current win streak and both times the Nets have played them tough. The first meeting, which took place here in Brooklyn on 1.25 saw them blow an 18-point lead entering the fourth quarter. Five days later down in Miami was another close one as the Nets only lost by eight despite a massive discrepancy from behind the three-point line (outscored 33-12). I simply believe that both team's disparate streaks are due to end some time and why not simultaneously? A couple of weeks ago, it would have been considered insane to see Miami in this price range on the road. 8* Brooklyn

10* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): On Saturday, I played against Akron and they promptly dropped their first MAC game of the season, 85-70 at Ohio. In my analysis for that game, I'd brought up how the Zips should be considered one of the luckiest teams in the entire country as they could boast six wins by five points or less. Well, you can now make that number SEVEN (wins by 5 pts or less) as they rebounded from the loss to OU by beating Ball State 65-63 on Tuesday. They were nine-point favorites though, so they failed to cover for a fourth consecutive game. Tonight finds the Zips playing at Eastern Michigan. EMU was leading the MAC West for much of the season, that was until this current three-game losing streak that they're on. But I have them bouncing back here in Ypsilanti.

Akron does hold a 70-63 win over Eastern Michigan, back on January 20th. But remember they'd also beaten Ohio at home too. That loss by Eastern Michigan was what started the current slide as they've not only lost three straight, but also five of six overall. Two of those have come at home as favorites. They are still more than alive in the division, however, as all but one team in the MAC West is separated by just one game in the standings. Meanwhile, still w/ a sizable lead in the East, might we start to see some complacency set in w/ Akron? Note that the Zips' last three wins have all been by three points or less and by a total of six points. While they are a dominant home team (won 29 straight!), results on the road have been so-so as Akron is just 3-5 SU in "true" road games this year and 13-19 SU the L3 seasons. 

Eastern Michigan averages an impressive 88.0 PPG at home. Two Saturdays ago, they were a play for me as they went to Miami and recorded their 1st win in Oxford in over 20 years and did so in pretty dominant fashion. Since that time though, they've dropped three straight. In all three games, free throw shooting was an issue for the Eagles. Against both Kent State and Northern Illinois, they watched as opponents got to the charity stripe w/ tremendous regularity. Tuesday in Toledo saw them get to the line only EIGHT times themselves while the Rockets shot a blistering 53% for the game including 10 made three-pointers. But with an avg MOV of 19.5 PPG at home, I can't help but think EMU is a tremendous value, especially in such a desperation spot. 10* Eastern Michigan

8* Louisiana Tech (9:00 ET): La Tech is 16-8 SU overall and currently in second place in Conference USA. They trail Middle Tennessee by only two games. A one-point loss way back on January 7th to UTSA (were 16.5-pt favorites) still looms large. But I believe the Bulldogs can certainly still end up finishing in first place, although it will be tough considering they've already lost to MTSU. For this game, I feel they're drastically undervalued. Part of it is a four-game ATS losing streak. The other half of the equation is UTEP has pulled not one, not two, but THREE consecutive upsets. They were underdogs of seven points or more all three times. The latest saw the Miners beat Middle Tennessee at home Saturday, 57-54 as 11-point dogs. They can't do it again, can they? I'll lay the points.

These two met back on January 5th and it was all La Tech in 20-point (64-44) win in Ruston. Neither team shot well (both below 40%), but a key difference was La Tech making 10 three-pointers while UTEP only made two. The Bulldogs offense was again on full display Saturday night w/ a 94-point effort Saturday against Marshall. Granted, the defense wasn't very good (gave up 90 pts), but I don't think UTEP is capable of that kind of point production. Even with the recent resurgence, UTEP has scored more than 66 points only twice in its last 10 games! 

Prior to winning six of their last seven, UTEP was just 2-13 SU on the year. So color me skeptical of them. Teams have not shot the ball well against the Miners recently as Middle Tennessee was actually the first in the L6 games to be above 40%. You have to tip your cap to UTEP for handing MTSU its first league loss of the year. But they actually trailed 27-16 at the half and didn't take their first lead until there were less than three minutes left in the game. It was a similar story last week against UAB as the Miners trailed that game 28-19 at halftime before rallying to win 63-59 as seven-point dogs. As impressive a run as this has been, eventually the Miners will revert back to the team we saw earlier in the year. 8* Louisiana Tech

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Both of these teams won as large favorites on Tuesday. However, while Houston covered, Charlotte did not. The Hornets at least snapped their long losing streak (seven games!) by beating Brooklyn 111-107. However, it should be pointed out that the Hornets held a 17-point halftime lead and controlled the game despite a pretty poor shooting performance. Houston, on the other hand, pulled away late from Orlando in a 128-104 win and cover. They too had a big halftime edge, but also had to outscore the lowly Magic 34-20 in the fourth quarter to grab the cash. Charlotte's recent struggles have had more to do w/ injuries than anything else and now they're healthier. Houston hasn't exactly been tearing it up at the betting window either. Take the points w/ the home dog.

Even after losing seven in a row and falling to ninth place in the Eastern Conference, the Hornets still sport the East's fifth best point differential and net efficiency rating (those two things are tied together). The recent schedule hasn't been all that kind as they had to play the Warriors twice, not to mention the Wizards and Jazz, who are two of the hottest teams in the league. I mentioned they didn't shoot well Tuesday vs. Brooklyn. They finished the game at 39.2% including 7 of 26 from three-point range. They should shoot much better tonight. Houston is not known for its defense and gives up 110.8 PPG on the road. Cody Zeller might finally return to the lineup tonight, but regardless, seven Hornets scored in double figures vs. the Nets. This team is 16-10 SU at home this year and this will be just the FOURTH time they've gotten points here.

Houston is only 4-4 SU its last eight games and an even worse 2-6 against the spread. Though they did defeat Charlotte 121-114 at home last month (led by 20 at half), I don't think they should be laying this many points on the road. While the Rockets have one of the league's best ATS road records (18-11), that's because they are 7-1 as dogs. I simply believe Charlotte is due to turn it around, both in the standings and at the pay window. They are a great value as a home dog in this spot. 10* Charlotte

10* Florida International (7:00 ET): According to KenPom, FIU has been one of the unluckiest teams in the entire country. That's confirmed by six losses by five points or less while they have no such victories. Of course, the Panthers have won only five games all season and just one of their last 10! They are coming off a 15-point loss at Charlotte Saturday, which dropped them to 0-10 SU in "true" road games. But here at home, they've been far more competitve (outscoring opponents!) and I like the spot hosting a Rice team that will be laying points for a second straight road game. The favored Owls did cover Saturday as they won 95-80 (sound familiar), but that was against North Texas, who is one of the worst teams in the entire country!  Take the points. 

As you might guess, FIU shoots the ball a lot better at home. They are at 48.9% overall from the field including 38.1% from three-point range. Then again, offense certainly wasn't the issue Saturday against Charlotte, who shot a blistering 59.6% from the field against the Panthers. Expect the defense to be better tonight simply because it can't be any worse than it was there. Now Rice is a top 25 offense in terms of points per game, but they've also been able to take advantage of what has been a really weak recent schedule. You would not expect a team like Rice to be 3-0 SU as road favorites, but they are. However, covering in that spot twice in a row is unfamiliar territory. 

Rice's defense also gets significantly worse away from home. They allow opponents to shoot 46.7% from the field in road games. Curiously, the Owls are 0-9 ATS their L9 Thursday games. The last one, they lost to Old Dominion, outright, as 4-point favorites. Something else that should be noted here is Rice had been off for a full week heading into the North Texas game. This week, they play not only here at FIU, but at FAU on Saturday. The home team has won each of the last two meetings between these schools. Look for this one to be closer than expected w/ an outright upset a distinct possibility. 10* Florida International

8* Under Clippers/Knicks (8:05 ET): This is not a very attractive TV matchup as the Clippers are still w/o Chris Paul and the Knicks are still w/o any hope or sensible direction. We knew that Paul's absence would be detrimental to the Clips' fortunes; the only question was just how much. Well, the team has lost seven of its last nine and has quite the challenging schedule this month. This game would certainly appear to be the most "winnable" of the next six, that's for certain. As for the Knicks, they just lost outright at home to the Lakers. So there's not really an edge when it comes to playing the side here, however, the total does appear to be inflated due to the rash of points allowed by both teams of later. Therefore, I'm going to play the Under here.

Twice in the last five games, the Clippers had to play Golden State. As a result, we've seen them give up an average of 123.2 PPG during that time. That number almost certainly will start to come down. They did just give up 118 in their last game, a loss at Toronto, but the Raptors are another of the league's top offensive teams. So too is Boston, who the Clips played Sunday. I actually had the Under there and the final score was 107-102, a pretty easy win and the only time the Under has cashed for LA over its last seven games. But the team they take on tonight ranks just 18th in offensive efficiency, so this is a major reprieve after facing three of the top seven plus a Phoenix team that plays at a top three pace. 

The Knicks recent defensive numbers are also inflated. Although in their case, that's due to one game in particular and not playing Golden State twice. Back on January 29th, they played a four overtime game against Atlanta and lost 142-139. That obviously skews all recent averages. So the fact they have given up about 10 PPG more over the L5 games compared to season long averages should soon be rectified. The Knicks are not good defensively, but facing the Clippers w/o Paul is clearly advantageous. Note that the Under is 5-1 when the Knicks are off a SU loss as a favorite (as they are here). Offensively, the Knicks do not shoot the ball well. Want proof? They have shot 50% or better from the field just TWICE in their last 47 games! 8* Under Clippers/Knicks

10* Cleveland (7:05 ET): For a second straight game, the defending NBA Champs will pay visit to a red-hot team. Monday saw them go to D.C. to take on a Wizards team that had won 17 straight at home and 11 of 12 overall. It took overtime - and a miraculous shot by LeBron James at the end of regulation - but the Cavs did emerge victorious by a score of 140-135. Now they take on an Indiana team has won seven straight games. While it may seem like a tough spot for LeBron and company, I think all the chatter about "what's wrong" with this team has galvanized them and we're about to see them go on a bit of a run. I'm actually disregarding my own numbers on this one as I feel the Cavs' net efficiency is a bit misleading due to James missing a few games. One of those was against Indiana on November 16th. Cleveland gets revenge here. Lay the points. 

Indiana is actually 8-1 ATS its last nine games vs. Cleveland, but they've benefited from James sitting out multiple times during that streak. Back in November, it was a 103-93 win here at home over the Cavs. Incredibly, that was the fourth time in the past two years that the Pacers got to play Cleveland at home with James resting. But let's be clear, LeBron is playing tonight and coming off an outstanding performance against the Wizards where he went for 32 points and 17 assists. Something to keep in mind is that James fouled out in overtime and the Cavs still won, thanks to Kyrie Irving scoring 11 of his 23 points in overtime. Kevin Love, the subject of trade rumors, scored 39 points and had 12 rebounds. Love might very well be in store for another big game tonight as he went for 27-16 in that November meeting. Indiana could be w/o Thaddeus Young here, which would make defending Love all the more difficult. 

Indiana's defense has been a lot better of late with them holding four straight opponents below 100 ptsa and three of them to 90 or less. But none of those teams were Cleveland, who ranks fifth in the league in offensive efficiency and makes 39% of its three-point attempts. In fact, the Pacers' last four opponents all rank in the bottom third of the league in offensive efficiency and yes that includes Oklahoma City. While the Pacers have been tough at home all season, I view this as another statement game for Cleveland, who has quietly covered its last three games. 10* Cleveland

8* Connecticut (7:00 ET): Like Xavier-DePaul, this is another game where the home team should roll. UConn is looking to bounce back from an 82-68 loss at Cincinnati (the top team in the American) on Saturday and has the perfect opponent to do just that. South Florida has yet to win a game in conference play and I don't see them starting tonight. UConn already beat USF once this year, by 21 down in Tampa, and were 7.5-point favorites when they did so. Using that number as our baseline, it would seem as if tonight's line should be several points higher. Lay the points.

I will concede right off the bat that this is not your typical strong UConn team. Barring some miraculous late season run or winning the AAC Tournament, they will not even make the field of 68. They trailed the whole way Saturday against Cincinnati, but again that's a very good team they were facing. Because of injuries, they've been down to as few as six scholarship players at times this year, but it appears as if both Juwan Durham and Steven Enonch will be back tonight from their respective foot injuries. Prior to losing to Cincy, the Huskies were on a season-best three-game win streak. They've won four in a row here at home. I suspect we'll see a lot better defense from Kevin Ollie's team tonight after they gave up 82 points to Cincinnati. That was the most allowed in any conference game this season.

Also helping the UConn defense in this one is the fact South Florida comes in averaging only 62.4 PPG in conference play. They have lost all 11 American games by an average of 16.4 points. Their last win came all the way back on 12.22 vs. Delaware. They only time they won a road game this year came back on 12.1 at Troy. What's real concerning here for the Bulls is they just shot better than 50% in B2B games and still lost - comfortably - both times. I would expect a sharp decline in the team's overall shooting tonight as UConn holds its visitors to just 61.2 PPG at home. Don't be too fooled by the final score from Saturday (83-74) as the Bulls actually trailed Temple by 23 at the half and only shortened the margin once the game was well in hand. The first time these teams met, USF allowed UConn to make 12 three-pointers. 8* Connecticut

8* IPFW (7:00 ET): Among schools whose games were regularly lined, Fort Wayne was the top ATS team in the country last year at 21-8 (72.4%). Despite the predictable regression in that department this year (they're just 7-11 ATS) and the fact they are just 5-5 SU in conference play, I still view this as the best team in the Summit League. One thing is for sure and that's the Mastadons take care of business at home where they are 11-1 SU and averaging a whopping 95.9 PPG. Tonight, they look to rebound from a tough road loss at Denver as they host South Dakota in what is a revenge spot. I look for the Mastadons to win big in this one. Lay the points.

IPFW lost to Denver at the buzzer - in overtime - on Saturday. It was their fourth loss in the last six games, a far cry from last season when they lost only four conference games all season and were the top seed entering the Summit League Tournament (were upset in the semfinals). But again, I feel that the homecourt edge tonight will be the difference maker. The Mastadons have not only covered 19 of their last 27 games played on this floor, but they've topped 100 pts in three of the last four home games! It's been a road-heavy schedule that's contributed to the downturn of late. This will be just the second home game for the Mastadons in the last month. The first saw them beat rival IUPUI by 30 on January 25th.

South Dakota pulled an upset over IPFW at home on January 14th. It was an ugly 66-63 game where neither side shot well. Unfortunately for the Coyotes, they won't be able to count on Ft. Wayne shooting that poorly again. Especially considering they give up 78.7 PPG away from home to begin with. South Dakota pulled an upset Saturday, beating the first place team in the Summit (North Dakota State), 76-66 as six-point underdogs. But this will now be their third consecutive road game. They've shot above 50% from the floor in the first two, but I do not see that trend continuing this evening. Note IPFW is a strong 9-1 ATS the L3 seasons when seeking revenge for a road loss. 8* IPFW

8* Xavier (6:30 ET): The Musketeers just upset Creighton, 82-80 as five-point dogs on Saturday, and did so w/o the services of Edmond Sumner. Sumner (knee) was lost for the year in late January and remember that Myles Davis has also left the team. So there's plenty of attrition going on here, but it didn't stop the team from recording its first win over an RPI Top 25 opponent on Saturday. If the Musketeers were able to down a team like Creighton, then certainly they should have little difficulty here against Big East lightweight DePaul, right? The Blue Demons enter this contest having lost all but one league game and they are 0-9 SU on the road as well. Let's continue to take advantage of Xavier still being undervalued in the wake of some personnel looses. Lay the points.

How did Xavier upset Creighton? Well, let's start by pointing out that they shot better than 50 percent from the field and got really hot late. Five three-pointers were the key during a 19-7 second half run which essentially decided the game. It also helped that Creighton missed free throws. Now starting in place of Sumner, Quentin Goodin scored 15 points. It was the Musketeers third straight win, so they've yet to lose since the Sumner injury. All three wins have been close, but tonight marks - by far - their easiest league game of the season. Xavier is 11-1 SU at home this year, outscoring visitors by 14.8 points per game. They've beaten DePaul by double digits three straight times, including twice last season. They are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season as home favorites of 12.5 or more points.

Saying DePaul is "not good" would be putting it mildly. Their only Big East win of the season came by a single point, at home, vs. Providence. True road games have been a complete disaster as they've lost all six (also 0-3 at neutral sites) by an average margin of 17.1 points per game. They come into tonight off a 13-point loss to Marquette, at home. They gave up 92 points there and that's not a good sign when you only average 62.0 per game on the road. Incredibly, the Blue Demons are shooting just 35.7% from the field this season when away from home. That includes an atrocious 24.9% from three-point range! At the same time, they allow opponents to make 48.7% of their FG attempts and 38.2% from three-point range when they are the road team. This should be a blowout. 8* Xavier

10* Michigan (9:00 ET): When these teams met nine days ago in East Lansing, Michigan State was a desperate team. They entered the game on a three-game losing streak. However, they were able to defeat the rival Wolverines 70-62 as slight three-point favorites even though the sharper dollars appeared to be on the other side. Now it's Michigan that's desperate. They lost here in Ann Arbor to Ohio State over the weekend, 70-66 as four-point chalk, dropping them to just 4-6 straight up in Big 10 play. However, I don't see them dropping B2B home games. After all, they are 12-3 SU this year in Ann Arbor, holding opponents to just 62.0 points per game. Therefore, I'll lay the short number. 

Michigan State was a play for me last Thursday as they went to Nebraska and won 72-61 as a short road favorite. So it's now B2B wins for Sparty and they were off this weekend. But this team simply isn't as strong an outfit as we're used to seeing under HC Tom Izzo. Thursday marked just their second "true" road win of the year and when they're not a home favorite, the team's record is just 5-8 SU this season. They did shoot a blistering 63 percent from the field in the second half against Nebraska, but that's unlikely to be matched here due to the Michigan defense not to mention the simple laws of regression. They also made 11 of 17 three-point field goals in that game, which is well above their norm.

Michigan is better at home primarily because the defensive numbers improve so much, but they also shoot the ball slightly better. They did not shoot the ball well at all in the first meeting w/ MSU, finishing that game at just 33.9% from the field including 7 of 26 from three-point range. Note that prior to suffering that loss in East Lansing, the Wolverines had just blown out Indiana by 30 (here at home) the game previous. While MSU is considered "safely" in the field of 68 (NCAA Tournament) right now, Michigan is right on the bubble. They BADLY need to win this game and I think they will as the hot shooting we're used to seeing from John Beilein teams should return. They were only 37.3% from the field against Ohio State Saturday, which was pretty shocking. 10* Michigan

8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Neither of these teams have been playing well of late. The Hornets have lost seven in a row to fall out of the top eight in the Eastern Conference. I did cash them plus the points Saturday, however, as they lost by only seven at Utah. On the bright side, that marked the first time they covered a game during this losing streak. Of course, that's nothing compared to what Brooklyn has gone through this season. The Nets have just ONE win since X-Mas and have lost their last nine games. While they've been somewhat competitive in the last four (all decided by single digits), the fact is this team has just two road wins all year and isn't going to win tonight. Charlotte is better than its record shows. As I mentioned in Saturday's analysis, they have the fifth best per game point differential and net efficiency rating in the Eastern Conference. Lay the points.

While I believe the Hornets are better than their 23-28 SU record, they have actually struggled against the Nets this year. They're 0-3 ATS against them so far this season, including an outright loss (in Brooklyn) back in December. When they hosted the Nets last month, they were favored by 12 and won by only seven. That game saw Brooklyn make 17 three-pointers, which is atypical. The Hornets haven't won since, but have had to play Golden State twice, not to mention a couple of red-hot teams in Washington and Utah. Saturday night in Utah saw them enter the fourth quarter w/ a nine-point lead only to get outscored 32-16 over the final 12 minutes. It should be pointed out that leading scorer Kemba Walker was sick going into that game, but is now reportedly feeling better.

No matter what way you slice it, Brooklyn is the worst team in the league. They have lost 20 of 21 games since beating Charlotte at home on 12.26. On the road, they give up an average of 117.5 PPG. What's really scary if you're a Nets fan (besides still being a Nets fan) is that the team has actually played better defense of late and is still losing. It's last three games, opponents have shot only 41.6 percent against them. Over the L5 games, they're giving up an average of "only" 107.4 PPG. Given they are last in the league defensively, I expect this to lead to Charlotte having its best offensive output in some time tonight. The price is high here and I know Charlotte hasn't been good of late. But if there's any recipe for a turnaround, it's a visit from Brooklyn. I like the addition of Miles Plumlee to the roster as well. 8* Charlotte

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Pun intended, but the Heat are red hot right now. They arrive in the Twin Cities riding a 10-game win streak where they are also 10-0 ATS. For much of the year, in my weekly power rankings column, I made the case that this team was better than its record. But in saying that, I never would have expected this! Speaking of "better than it's record," the T'wolves are a team that should have a lot more wins. They've lost three in a row to drop to 19-32 SU on the year, but interestingly have the Western Conference's eighth best per game point differential and net efficiency rating. In addition to the three-game losing streak, mor bad news came down over the weekend when it was announced Zach LaVine was done for the year w/ an ACL injury. Still though, I believe they have enought - at home - to snap Miami's stunning win streak. 

Though LaVine is one of three under-22 (year old) players on the T'wolves roster to be averaging at least 18.9 PPG and started 47 of 50 games this year, his absence may not have quite the severe impact you think. Before losing to Memphis on Saturday, the team had gone 3-0 SU/ATS w/ LaVine out of the lineup, all three wins coming by double digits. LaVine isn't a great defender and strangely PG Ricky Rubio seems to shoot a lot better when he's not on the floor. Karl Anthony Towns (double-double in 30 of last 32 games) and Andrew Wiggins are still the team's two best players. Something else to consider is that the T'wolves are 7-1 ATS this season when coming off three consecutive SU losses. They actually led Memphis by 16 after one quarter on Saturday, but it ended up being yet another game where the T'wolves blew a double digit lead (I've lost count how many times they've done that this season). Something else to consider is Minnesota is 3-7 SU in games decided by three points or less this year. That record is bound to improve. 

Speaking of improvement, it's safe to say no one saw Miami coming. Prior to this 10-game win streak, they'd actually lost 10 of 11 and were 11-30 SU overall. Though they do have wins over both Houston and Golden State during the streak, it's largely been an easy and home-heavy schedule, which in part explains the surge. Playing Brooklyn twice and Philadelphia over the L6 games definitely helps. Offensive production has been way up of late, but they still ranks 26th in the league in efficiency. We should start to see regression there. Also, the Heat are only 8-17 SU on the road this year, averaging just 96.7 points per game. 8* Minnesota

10* Under 76ers/Pistons (7:35 ET): Playing Under with both of these teams has brought me recent success. With Philadelphia, it was a game at San Antonio when they were held to only 86 pts on Thursday. With Detroit, it was Saturday's game w/ Indiana where they were held to just 84 points. Still though, there's further "regression to the mean" that's set to take place here as results for both teams have typically been higher scoring than expected over the last two weeks. The Sixers just gave up 125 points in a loss at Miami Saturday, their eighth Over in the last nine games. The Pistons had gone Over in seven straight before Saturday. Season-long results do not support the recent rash of Overs, on the either side, thus I'll be going Under again here.

Let it be noted that Philadelphia remains 30th (i.e. dead last) in the league in offensive efficiency. That's where they've been all season and the place they are likely to stay. They are the ONLY team in the league that does not average a full point per possession. Joel Embiid is again expected to be held out of the lineup tonight. Also possibly M.I.A. for Monday will be Jalil Okafor and Robert Covington. If all three are out, I'm simply not sure where the points will come from. Detroit is a pretty decent defensive team, holding visitors under 100 PPG at home this year. Of course, it also helps that they are 26th in pace of play. 

Similar to Philadelphia, the Pistons are not a great offensive team either. They often struggle to shoot the ball and are 27th in the league in terms of true shooting. In the last meeting with the Sixers, which took place here at home, they scored only 79 points. Philly, like Detroit, is a middle of the road team in terms of defensive efficiency. That last meeting, which took place back in December, was just the fifth win of the year for the Sixers. They shot 55% overall from the field including 7 of 17 from three-point range. I seriously doubt they'll be able to match those percentages tonight. This is another example of a game where the O/U line exceeds what both teams' total PPG average is for the season. It's a scenario I've been exploiting on a regular basis over the last several days. 10* Under 76ers/Pistons

10* Rider (7:00 ET): This is a revenge spot for MAAC-leader Monmouth. But because of that, the spread is inflated. The Hawks haven't fared too well on the conference road thus far, going 1-3 ATS w/ the one cover being a four-point win at Canisius. Of course, they also didn't fare well the first matchup vs. Rider (back on New Year's Eve) when they lost 93-90 as 14-pt home favorites. That was an overtime game that saw Monmouth fall behind by 13 at the half. They would go on to lose their next game as well (at St. Peter's), but have since won nine in a row. Still though, this line is clearly inflated if you use the number from the first meeting as our baseline. Rider certainly won't be lacking for motivation here either as they lost by 21 to Iona on Friday. Take the points here.

Elsewhere on Friday, Monmouth avenged its only other MAAC loss from this season. They faced St. Peter's in a situation similar to this, only at home and the number certainly appeared to be more advantageous from their perspective. I took the bait and was let down as the Hawks only prevailed 71-70 (were -8.5) and needed OT to do so. While they initially raced out to 14-2, Monmouth struggled from that point forward, letting St. Peter's tie the game by halftime. They even faced an eight-point deficit w/ just over six minutes remaining. While this is the Hawks' second nine-game win streak of the season, note the program has NEVER won 10 consecutive games.

The first time these teams matched up, Rider definitely benefited from catching Monmouth at the right time. The Hawks were off a high-profile game vs. North Carolina where they were blown out 102-74 and thus more ripe to be upset. Rider pulled off the SU dog win by outscoring the Hawks 41-28 in the first half and holding them to 38.9% shooting for the game. For tonight's rematch, another break may have already gone Rider's way as Monmouth's second leading scorer Micah Seaborn (15.4 PPG) injured his knee on Friday and may not play here. Though they average plenty of points, Monmouth is hardly a great shooting team (42.9%). Rider was on the wrong side of a pretty massive shooting discrepancy Friday vs. Iona, but the Broncs are also a perfect 3-0 ATS this season after allowing 80+ pts last game. I'd be a bit surprised if Rider pulled out another SU dog win at Monmouth's expense here, but the number is generous. 10* Rider

8* California (4:30 ET): It appears as if you have to be a pretty good team to beat Cal. Their last four losses have come against Virginia, Arizona, UCLA and Oregon. Sunday's opponent, Colorado, is not at that level. Yes, the Bears did lose earlier in the year to San Diego State and Seton Hall. But those were neutral site games. Here in Berkeley, the team is 13-2 SU w/ an avg MOV of +12 points per game. The only two home losses came to Virginia and Arizona by a combined nine points. It was a double overtime win here on Thursday (over Utah) and while that can take a lot out of a team, the fact that Colorado is playing its second road game of the weekend mitigates that. I can't see the Buffaloes pulling back to back upsets (won at Stanford on Thurs). Lay the points.

I really like this Cal team. Even though it was a double overtime game Thursday, they never trailed Utah by more than three points. The Utes came in shooting a Pac 12 best 53.9% from the field, but Cal held them to just 41.5%. It was just the second game all year that the Bears were outrebounded. I do not think it's going to happen in B2B games. Ivan Rabb now has 11 double-doubles and the Bears blocked nine shots against Utah. There should be a massive edge inside for the home team in this game. By the way, Colorado is just 1-11 SU all-time in Berkeley. While just 1-5 ATS the L6 games, Cal has won all but one of those straight up, a visit to an Oregon team that has not lost a home game all season. Defensively, the Bears have a massive edge in this game. They allow only 59.9 PPG at home while Colorado allows 80.4 PPG on the road.

Colorado is just 3-6 SU in "true" road games this year. They upset Stanford on Thursday despite a season-high 23 turnovers and making just one field goal over the final six minutes. That actually made it B2B upsets as they shocked Oregon last week in Boulder. This three-game win streak looks "nice and shiny," but remember that the Buffs opened Pac 12 play 0-7. With a tough three-game road trip looming, this is almost a "must-win" for Cal. I feel they're going to dominate the inside and score at will this afternoon. At the same time, Colorado is due to regress after pulling off a pair of upsets. 8* California

10* Under Clippers/Celtics (2:05 ET): There's been a real uptick in scoring in Clippers games recently. As a result, the last five have all gone Over the total. But I do believe we're about to see some regression to the mean. Looking at the L5 games, they are averaging 113.4 points per game. That's above their season long average of 108.4. Remember that they are still w/o Chris Paul. But defensively is where the real discrepancy lies. The L5 games they've allowed an average of 123.4 PPG. This is well above their season-long average of 104.7 PPG. The number is obviously skewed by the fact they got torched, not once but twice, by Golden State. Boston is prolific, but not that prolific. Take the Under Sunday afternoon.

After giving up 144 pts the first time vs. Golden State, the Clippers allowed 133 more Thursday. The Warriors shot 62% and 52% in the two games. There was a time when LA actually led the league in defensive efficiency. That time is obviously long gone, but they still rank in the top half of the league. The bottom line here is that I can't help but think the defensive numbers will start to improve, if only because they "have" to. Meanwhile, without Paul, I think the offense is going to struggle. Paul was #1 in the league in RPM (Real Plus-Minus) and worth, on average, over nine points per 100 possessions. The team is 5-1 Under this year when playing w/ exactly two days rest. 

Boston has also been on a scoring binge of late. They will typically allow around 105 PPG, a number they've been at consistently of late (108, 109, 104, 107 L4 games). I played the Under in the last game and while it got a little too "close for comfort" at the end, it did hit against the Lakers. The Celtics are more likely to start to see a decrease in production offensively as the L5 games have seen them at 115 PPG, which is roughly seven points higher than their season average. This coincides w/ the likely Clippers defensive improvement. Both teams rank near the middle in terms of pace of play. With the increase in scoring we've seen across the league this year, we're starting to see O/U lines that are starting to get too high. Neither of these teams' total PPG average exceeds what the O/U line is here. 10* Under Clippers/Celtics

8* Hawaii (10:30 ET): The Warriors may be in the second game of a back to back, and off an upset, but they're getting far too many points tonight at Cal State Northridge. The host Matadors have won three consecutive games, oddly as 1-pt favorites every time, but this price range is a bit of rarefied air for them. Only twice all season have they been asked to lay this many points and both times they failed; home games against Idaho State and UC Riverside. Thus, I'll look past what is typically an unfavorable situation for Hawaii as I think they're getting enough help from the oddsmakers to make this a winning ticket. Take the points.

Believe it or not, but Hawaii has played only THREE "true" road games so far. Thursday was their first win as they went to UC Riverside as 3.5-pt dogs and won outright, 72-63. It was their second consecutive win after routing UC Santa Barbara at home last Saturday by a score of 78-56. Three of the team's four Big West losses this year have been by six points or less. The only bad one was to UC Irvine, who is easily the top team in this league. Thursday saw the Warriors jump up to a huge 20-point halftime lead and then coast in the second half. They have already beating Northridge once this year, 80-77 as 2.5-point home favorites. It was pretty remarkable that they were able to win despite a -16 disadvantage in FT attempts.

CS Northridge is not a good defensive team as they allow over 81 points per game. That makes them pretty unappealing as a favorite right there. They are off a wild 108-98 win over Long Beach State Thursday, their 1st game hitting triple digits on the scoreboard since a double overtime loss in 2014. The Matadors do lead the conference in points per game, but at "only" 79.1. They had trouble getting stops in the season's 1st meeting vs. Hawaii and are 1-9 ATS this year coming off a game where they allowed 80+ points. The Matadors are not only 6-17 ATS seeking revenge for a road loss, but also only 1-6 ATS at home this year. 8* Hawaii

10* Charlotte (9:05 ET): What has happened to the Hornets? They've totally lost their sting, that's for sure, as the team comes into Saturday on a six-game losing skid. Though it should be noted that two of the losses came to Golden State, there is no denying that Charlotte is going through its roughest patch of the season. However, despite now being four games below .500 and tied for 8th in the Eastern Conference, they actually still own the fifth best point differential in the East. Tonight may seem like a tough task at Utah, especially if Kemba Walker (illness) can't go. But I believe the Hornets find a way to at least stay within the number. Utah isn't exactly a team built to blow out opponents by large margins. Take the points. 

The Jazz, like Charlotte, have had the last two days off. Unlike the Hornets, they are off a win. They beat Milwaukee, here at home, 104-88 as eight-point chalk. But prior to that, they'd dropped three of four straight up and were just 1-7 against the spread in their last eight. Going back further, they are only 4-11 ATS L15. Defensively, Utah is among the very best teams in the league (3rd in efficiency) and holds foes to an average of just 93.3 PPG at home. But they're also one of the few teams that doesn't average 100 PPG. In the role of favorite, the team is simply less appealing, particularly this price range. We also know that they will be w/o Rodney Hood, who is out w/ a knee injury.

Charlotte will be w/o Cody Zeller and that's meant bad news in the past. They are an ugly 1-11 SU when their starting center is out of the lineup this year. But help has arrived in the form of Miles Plumlee, who is scheduled to make his Hornets debut here. With or without Walker, the team's defense can't be any worse than it was against the Warriors on Wednesday. They allowed 21 three-pointers in that game, something Utah is simply not capable of doing. I just think the Hornets are a lot better than what they've been showing of late. They did beat Utah early in the year, at home. 10* Charlotte

10* Under Pistons/Pacers (7:05 ET): Detroit went Over the total again last night. It was their seventh consecutive time doing so. The final result was 116-108, in their favor, at home against Minnesota. It was their second win in a row as they have now fought their way back into a tie for the coveted eighth spot in an admittedly weak Eastern Conference. One of the teams they find themselves competing with for a playoff spot is Indiana. The Pacers have won five straight, including 106-97 over Brooklyn last night. Two familiar opponents, both playing the second game of a back to back, sounds like an Under in my book. That's the way I'm playing this one. 

The Pistons' scoring, as you might have guessed, has been way up of late. Over the L5 games, they are averaging 110 PPG, which is nearly a 10 PPG increase from their overall season average. There was a time, not too long ago, that this was one of the few teams in the league not to be scoring nor allowing 100 PPG. This streak has changed that. I've mentioned this before in a previous writeup, but in terms of "true" shooting (which weighs 3-pt and FT shooting), Detroit is typically among the worst teams in the league. Currently, they are tied for 27th in that department, even after this stretch of increased scoring. The Pistons are also allowing more points per game than per usual. The L5 games has seen them give up an average of 108.8, which is roughly seven more points per game than the season average.

Indiana just won a pair of road games against bad teams, holding them both under 100 points. Last night was a win in Brooklyn (where I had the Nets +7.5 and they came up just short). Needless to say, going from the Nets to any other opponent (save for maybe the Lakers) means a tougher defense. Speaking of defense, the Pacers did a good job last night in holding the Nets to just 37.2% shooting. Another notable difference between this game and last night (from Indiana's perspective) will be pace of play. Brooklyn actually leads the league in that department. Detroit is 26th. So this game should be played at a much slower pace w/ fewer possessions. This is the highest O/U line of the three meetings so far between these division rivals. Detroit is 6-2 Under in the second game of a back to back. 10* Under Pistons/Pacers

10* UAB (4:00 ET): The Blazers just lost (on the road) to a bad UTEP team Thursday night, but will get a chance to bounce back here against one of C-USA's other bottom-feeders, that being UTSA. Given the events of 48 hours ago, UAB is now available at a far cheaper price than they ought to be. Prior to losing at UTEP, they had won seven of eight. Meanwhile, UTSA has lost four in a row. Thursday brought their first home loss of the year, to Middle Tennessee, but this may be viewed as  a bit of a letdown spot by the players after hosting the league's top team. They even had a lead at halftime, but obviously could not hold on. I think it will be tough for the players to get over that disappointment. UAB is 6-2 ATS off a SU loss. Lay the points. 

UAB also enjoyed a halftime lead in their previous game, only to come up short. In their case, they held UTEP to only 19 first half points. But a key 14-2 second run by the Miners totally changed the game and UAB could not recover. It was a rare off night from the floor for the Blazers, who shot just 39.3% for the game, including 6 of 20 from three-point range. They also certainly did not help themselves from the FT line where they went just 9 of 18. That's a killer in what ended up being a four-point loss. I anticipate UAB's shooting will improve dramatically here as in each of the six games previous to the loss to UTEP, they were above 50% from the field. They are also normally a very good FT shooting team (76%); in fact, they are 20th in the country at the charity stripe! 

UTSA does well defensively, at least at home (61.4 PPG allowed), but struggles offensively. They are 325th nationally in scoring offense and 341st in FG%. The Roadrunners have been below 40% from the field in five straight games. While they've got the nice home record, most of the wins were close. They come into today off four straight double digit losses, a streak which began w/ one of the ugliest performances of this entire NCAAB season, that being a 59-39 loss at UTEP. I feel that given the disparate ways these two teams shoot the ball, there's a reciepe for a blowout here. Something that's also benefited UTSA at home this year is opponents are only making 63.4% of foul shots. That cannot possibly continue. 10* UAB

10* Ohio (12:00 ET): The number of teams still w/o a conference loss continues to dwindle and THREE such teams will be an underdog on Saturday. The first is Akron, who visits MAC East rival Ohio. These teams have already met once this season w/ the Zips (obviously) winning 83-68 as six-point favorites. Since then, their cushion in the division has grown to four full games as Ohio has lost two more times, including their last time out as they fell 90-85 at Western Michigan on Tuesday. That game saw the Bobcats blow a 21-pt lead (were up 10 w/ just over 5 mins remaining). As heartbreaking a defeat as that may be, I expect OU to get over it quickly in this revenge spot. Lat the points. 

Ohio has not been the same since losing Antonio Campbell for the year. The senior forward was leading the team in scoring (16.4 PPG). All four league losses have come since the injury. But they've also managed to win big at both Northern Illinois and Bowling Green w/o him. Plus, they did lead WMU big on the road. The Bobcats did not have him the first time they faced Akron, so it's not as if they will have to make up lost production. They've also shot the ball at 50% or better in each of the L3 games. Here in Athens, they're 9-2 SU and holding teams to just 61.9 points per game. Those two home losses have been by a combined seven points. They happen to be the last two home games they've played. So, that's another reason motivation will be high here.

Akron could also be w/o a key contributor Saturday afternoon. Michael Hughes is listed as questionable. Even with him, the Zips have been a pretty lucky team this season. Their luck rating at KenPom is actually second highest in the country, trailing only Sam Houston State. What do I mean by that? Well, for starters, they have a ton of close wins. Six by five points or less to be exact. Five of those took place in January, including the last two times they've been in action. Last Saturday, they squeaked by Buffalo by a single point, 91-90 as 7.5-pt chalk. They won that game via two free throws in the final seconds. Then on Tuesday, they had to rally back from a 14-point halftime deficit to win at Northern Illinois, 76-73. So we have a team off a huge come from behind victory visiting a team that just blew a huge lead and lost its previous game. With this also being the second of B2B road games for Akron, it's tough to like them in this spot. Ohio is 29-11 ATS its L40 games as a home favorite of three points or less. Akron goes down for the 1st time in MAC play. 10* Ohio

8* Under Lakers/Celtics (8:05 ET): This matchup no longer means what it once did, but for some reason the game is on ESPN anyway. The announcers figure to spend more time talking about Magic and Bird than the players actually on the court. While that can get a bit nauseating, this one does figure to turn into a blowout, at least if you believe the oddsmakers. Boston is a big double digit fave here as the Lakers are playing the second game of a back to back. The Celtics are not a team I'm willing to endorse in this price range, so instead let's look at a total which I believe is too high. Are the Lakers bad defensively? Sure they are. But they're not that good offensively either and I see this one staying Under a very high total. 

Looking at Boston, you can expect them to probably give up around 105 points here. That their season long average. But I'm going to call for a decrease in offensive production, even though they are facing the #30 team in defensive efficiency. Over the L5 games, the Celtics have averaged 116.4 PPG. That's well above their season average of 108.2. Looking back, they've been held under 106 only one time since Christmas. That's really impressive, but the total here is still too high. The only time the Celtics have seen an O/U line of more than 220 since X-Mas was against Houston and that game (barely) stayed Under.

Like the Celtics, the Lakers recent defensive efforts have been right in line w/ their season long average. They give up a little more than 110 PPG. But offensively, they've been averaging only 97.4 points the L5 games and sadly they don't even average over 100 PPG on the road for the year. They did score 108 last night in Washington, but I don't see them getting to that number here. They do catch a break in that Boston is likely to be w/o Avery Bradley again. 8* Under Lakers/Celtics

10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): The Nets are not a good basketball team, so why the endorsement here? Well, this is the second time in a row we find the Pacers laying points on the road. The first saw them outlast Orlando Wednesday night, 98-88. I admit that I was on the Magic there, but the longview says Indiana isn't likely to keep covering away from home. They are still just 8-15 - both SU and ATS - on the road this year. They're home tomorrow night for a game w/ Detroit and could be looking ahead. Also, they've been able to pull out some lucky wins of late. Not saying Brooklyn wins here but they will keep it within the margin that the oddsmakers are calling for. Take the points. 

The Nets have won just 1 of their last 19 games. So why do I think they have a chance here? Well, in addition to Indiana's road woes, the Nets have been fairly competitive of late. Four of their last five losses have come by eight points or less. Against the Knicks on Wednesday, they led most of the way before blowing the game late. They jumped out to a 27-15 first half lead and led for the first three quarters. The 38 points allowed in the first half marked a season-low. It's somewhat cruel that a team known for playing bad defense still couldn't get the job done even when holding the opponent to 35.4% shooting. Typically, Brooklyn can score. Tonight, I think they can take advantage of an Indiana team that allows nearly 110 PPG on the road.

Prior to beating Orlando two nights ago, the Pacers were just 1-6 SU/ATS as road favorites. Suffice to say, this will be the most points they've been asked to lay in any road game this season. Earlier in the year, they came to Brooklyn as six-point favorites and lost the game outright. Consider that there have been eight times this season when the Nets have lost a game where they blew a double digit lead. They do play at the league's fastest pace, so they have that going for them. Indiana recently won a couple of games it probably didn't deserve to, including an overtime game against Sacramento last Friday. Probably time to "sell high" on this group. 10* Brooklyn

10* Monmouth (7:00 ET): Though they've won eight straight and are seemingly in control of their conference, don't expect any kind of letdown from MAAC leader Monmouth in this situation. That's because they're matched up w/ the last team to beat them, St. Peter's. When these schools met back on January 2nd, the Peacocks prevailed 71-61 as 5.5-pt home dogs. That result left Monmouth at 0-2 in conference play. It was a bad shooting night for the Hawks, who scored only 19 points in first half en route to what still stands as their lowest scoring output in conference play this season. St. Peter's has remained formidable, especially when taking points, but tonight should be Monmouth's night to garner revenge. Lay the points.

Like I alluded to, St. Peter's has been really strong at the betting window. They've gone 9-2 ATS L11 and since the upset of Monmouth, their only three SU losses have come by 2, 2 and 3 points. But tonight is their third consecutive road game and they are off a loss, at Iona, on Sunday. That was an overtime game as well and saw the Peacocks fail to get the job done defensively. Iona made 13 of 23 three-pointers and that's something to keep an eye on here as Monmouth makes an average of nine shots per game from behind the arc. I'm pretty surprised to see St. Peter's doing this well in conference play considering nationally they rank outside the top 300 in points, rebounds and assists per game! It should be noted that the L2 times the Peacocks have been on a three-game ATS win streak (as they are here), they've failed to cover the next time out. 

Monmouth is 10-1 SU at home and averaging 86 PPG. Last time here, they set the school record for points scored in a single game w/ 95 in a beatdown of Quinnipiac. That was their second straight home victory scoring 90 or more points. Monday, they poured in 83 in a double digit win at Marist. Overall, the team has won four in a row by double digits. There's some definite value here considering the Hawks were favored by 5.5 at St. Peter's last month. While they actually trailed Marist at the half Monday, I'm not too concerned given that Monmouth should shoot a lot better than 40% here. They did score 56 pts in the second half. Again, this figures to be one that the Hawks have had circled on their calendar for some time. They'll take no mercy. 10* Monmouth

10* Under Sixers/Spurs (8:35 ET): Philadelphia has gone Over in seven straight games following last night's 113-95 loss at Dallas. I say that it's time for that streak to end. The Sixers still rank dead last in the league in offense efficiency and here will be taking one of the top defensive teams in the league. Philly is currently the only team in the league not to be averaging a full point per possession. San Antonio is third in the league in defensive efficiency. I see the home team putting the clamps down in this one, but at the same time not scoring a ton either. Take the Under. 

After losing B2B games as favorites (to Dallas and New Orleans), the Spurs held Oklahoma City to 94 points Tuesday in a much-needed win. At home, they are holding opponents to just 97.8 PPG this year. OKC was held to just 35.3% shooting and turned the ball over 20 times. Granted, the Thunder are no longer what they once were offensively, but they're still eons ahead of Philadelphia. Also, the Sixers have benefited from facing a lot of subpar defensive foes recently. The Spurs are second in the league in points allowed. Again, Philly couldn't even break 100 against Dallas last night.

Without Joel Embiid, the task is even tougher here for the 76ers. The presumptive rookie of the year has missed six of the last seven games w/ a knee injury. Granted they were a much worse team last year, but in the two meetings w/ San Antonio, the Sixers scored only 83 and 68 points. This is a pretty high total from both team's perspective. Furthermore, Philly is 9-2 Under its L11 games as a road dog of 15.5 to 18 points. 10* Under Sixers/Spurs

10* Fairfield (8:00 ET): The opening suggested that these two MAAC teams are relatively even, but I don't believe that to be the case. Sure, Fairfield had its share of struggles in January. At one point, they'd lost five in a row, clearly bottoming out w/ a 42-point loss at Monmouth on 1.22. But since then, the Stags have rallied for B2B victories, both here at home. The last one came by 29 points, Tuesday vs. Manhattan. Niagara is also off a win, 80-67 over Rider on Saturday, but the Purple Eagles now find themselves on the road. That's a place they haven't been too often recently, in fact, only one of their previous six games took place on the road. This is a small number and Fairfield is already 5-1 ATS this season when taking on a team w/ a losing record. Lay the points. 

This is the first meeting of the season between these two. Fairfield swept last year while Niagara did the same in 2015. While the visitors come into this game having won three of four, two of the wins required late rallies. On 1.21, Niagara scored the game's final six points to beat St. Peter's by two. Then on Saturday, they closed on a 24-9 run to get by Rider, 80-67. That marked the Purple Eagles' largest margin of victory in a MAAC game this year. They benefited by Rider shooting only 36.8% for the game. I expect them to struggle defensively in this game, given that they allow 77.7 PPG for the season. They are just 2-9 SU on the road as well. 

As mentioned above, Fairfield also rolled to victory in their last game. They held Manhattan to only 25% shooting in a 78-49 win Tuesday. While it's a quick turnaround here for the Stags, I expect them to keep rolling at home. Saturday, they beat Marist here by double digits as well. At home, the Stags do a great job of defending the three-point line as they allow just 26.9% shooting from behind the arc. 10* Fairfield

10* South Florida (7:00 ET): USF got absolutely rocked in its last game, losing by 41 to the best team in the American, Cincinnati. Thus, it was a given that the number would be inflated for their next game (and it is) as they return home to host Memphis. Memphis is not as good as Cincinnati and while USF certainly has plenty of ground to make up after Saturday, this is a good value. Yes, I realize the Bulls have yet to win a single conference game this season and are averaging less than 60 PPG in AAC play. But Memphis seems unworthy of this price range, given their defensive struggles on the road and overall problems covering the spread (1-4-1 ATS L6). Take the points.

South Florida has already played Memphis tough once this year, losing by only six on the road. That game took place a little over two weeks ago and was a pretty ugly affair. Had USF gotten to the FT line more than SEVEN times, perhaps they could have pulled an outright upset. They held the Tigers to 35.1% shooting. Whatever offensive improvement we see from Memphis tonight will be mitigated on the defensive end. They are giving up 76.9 PPG on the road so far this season. They are just 2-2 in American road games w/ one of the wins by only a three-point margin. Even at home, they didn't shoot the ball well Saturday, making just over 30% of their shots in an ugly 57-50 win over East Carolina. 

Obviously, when a team is 0-9 SU in conference play, there aren't a ton of positives to report. But South Florida is third in the league in three-point percentage and they have outscored opponents by 86 points in the painted area. As hard as it is to win conference road games, this is just way too many points for a pedestrian team like Memphis to lay. 10* South Florida

8* Michigan State (7:00 ET): Believe it or not, Nebraska actually swept the season series from Michigan State last year. The two wins came by a combined three points, however. Still, that makes this a big double revenge spot for HC Izzo and Sparty, who could use the win anyway. This MSU team is not as strong as per usual. Their record is only 13-9 SU and prior to beating rival Michigan on Saturday, they had dropped three in a row. Of course, this is the time of year when the Spartans traditionally "turn it on." They've gone 10-3 ATS the L2 seasons in the month of February and I do believe they're catching Nebraska at an opportune time here. The Cornhuskers just upset Purdue here in Lincoln over the weekend, so they're likely in store for a letdown. 

Prior to that win over Purdue, Nebraska had really been struggling. They'd lost five straight, which makes MSU's three-game skid seem like "small potatoes" by comparison. Granted, two of those five Huskers losses were decided by a single point and were decided at the buzzer. But one came to lowly Rutgers. What went right for them against Purdue? Well, two players (Jack McVeigh and Jeriah Horne) came off the bench to score a total of 37 points, which was an unlikely boost. I don't think that duo can be counted on a nightly basis. While a couple of close games may not have gone Nebraska's way recently, note all four wins in Big 10 play have been by four points or less. Then there was last season's pretty fortuitous sweep of Michigan State. What I'm saying is that another close loss tonight would not surprise me. 

Michigan State is still considered a NCAA Tournament team, but a loss here could do some real damage to their resume. Like Nebraska, they were able to turn things around over the weekend. Unlike Nebraska, they did it w/ defense by holding the Wolverines to just 33.9% shooting for the game, including 7 of 26 from three-point range. This is still a top 50 defense in terms of efficiency, mind you. While MSU has lost nine times, it's not as if many of those defeats were bad losses. Five of them came at the hands of Arizona, Kentucky, Baylor, Duke and Purdue. Those are all top 20 teams. I just can't see a third consecutive loss to Nebraska taking place as I would have MSU as the slight favorite, even on the road. Revenge will be theirs. 8* Michigan State

8* Fresno State (10:00 ET): This is another revenge spot, for Fresno, as they lost to the Flyboys last month in Colorado Springs. What followed for the Bulldogs was an impressive three-game win streak, including victories over Boise State and Nevada. But that came to a halt Saturday night w/ a bit of a surprising loss at Utah State (were 2-pt favorites). Air Force has not played since last Tuesday when they shocked San Diego State 60-57. That, ironically, snapped a three-game losing streak and was their first win since beating Fresno State back on 1.11. I look for Fresno to get its revenge here as the home court advantage is a big deal, not only considering their own 9-1 SU home mark, but the fact Air Force is winless on the road. Lay the point. 

The home-road disparity has played itself out for FSU throughout conference play. They're 4-0 SU at home and 1-4 SU on the road. At home, they just seem to be a bit of a different team as they average 80.0 PPG on almost 49% shooting. That one MWC road win was a big one as it came at Nevada, giving them a season sweep of the Wolfpack, who are considered to be the best the conference has to offer. This has been a bit of a covering machine this season as they're 12-4 ATS overall and 5-1 at home. A bad shooting night (35%) of their own combined w/ hot shooting from the opponent (56%) is what doomed them Saturday in Logan. But I don't see Air Force being able to create the same kind of disparity that Utah State did. Certainly not on the road. 

The Falcons have lost all eight times they've venture off campus this year, including six "true" road games. In the process, they are giving up an average of more than 81 PPG. It's a real stark contrast between home and away as in Colorado Springs they're outscoring opponents by double digits while on the road they are being outscored by double digits. The season best effort on the defensive end against SDSU last week isn't likely to be duplicated here as the Falcons are just 3-10 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 60 pts or less the previous game. I also think the week off can hinder more than help. Just look at FSU, who was in the same spot on Saturday (also coming off an upset). Though the AFA has covered 8 of the past 10 matchups vs. Fresno, the Bulldogs have still won eight of those straight up. 8* Fresno State

8* Under Clippers/Suns (9:05 ET): With Chris Paul out until March, it is not a good time in Clipper-land. The team was humiliated Saturday night at Golden State, giving up 144 points in a 46-point loss. Tonight may mark the end of a five-game trip that's seen them go 1-3 SU/ATS, but things get no easier moving forward. After this game vs. the lowly Suns, they have to play Golden State again. That will be their only home game between now and Feb 15 as they'll be emarking on a trip out East shortly. So winning this game seems imperative. However, while the Suns might be awful defensively, do the Clippers have the necessary horses to take advantage? Even w/ Blake Griffin back in the fold, I'm not so sure. Take the Under in this one.

Remember when the Clippers were leading the league in defensive efficiency? That time has long passed as they now rank 11th in that department following the debacle vs. Golden State. That said, any defensive assignment the rest of the way should be considered "small potatoes" compared to what the experienced Saturday night in Oakland. The Warriors shot 62% for the game, had two 40+ pt quarters, and made 17 three-pointers. Even though Phoenix may play at a similar speed to GSW, the results are almost never the same. The Suns are 21st in offensive efficiency and have shot better than 50% in only two of the past 10 games.

These teams met almost exactly one month ago and the Suns were held to just 98 points on 38.2% overall shooting that included a dreadful 2 of 15 from three-point range. The first half was actually pretty high scoring (Clips led 64-58), but things grinded to a half over the final 24 minutes. While Phoenix may not shoot the ball that poorly again, I'm not sure there's a justification for the increase in the O/U line now that the Clips are w/o Paul. Granted, the Suns are not good defensively, but they should be able to do an adequate enough job here. Both teams are on Over streaks, so that's a reason to look to go the other way as well. 8* Under Clippers/Suns

8* Duquesne (8:00 ET): The Dukes may very well always be a bottom tier team in the Atlantic 10, but tonight they're catching a nice number at home against a vulnerable St. Bonaventure squad. The Bonnies are off a loss at Rhode Island on Saturday and are now being asked to play B2B games on the road for the 1st time since conference play commenced. Duquesne, meanwhile, will just be happy to be back home following road losses to Davidson and Richmond last week. Each team's loss on Saturday can be explained by bad FG% numbers. St. Bonaventure shot just 29.5% against Rhose Island while Duquesne ALLOWED Richmond to shoot 53.4% (and gave up 101 pts in the process w/ no overtime). I feel Duquesne's defensive numbers are more likely to dramatically improve here than SBU's offensive numbers. Take the points. 

Scoring 90 points and not covering as a double digit dog is tough to do in this spot, but Duquesne pulled off the feat on Saturday. It was their fifth loss in a row and seventh in the last eight games. Making matters more frustrating from Saturday's ATS loss is that the Dukes actually led outright, 57-52, early in the second half! It also didn't help that Richmond essentially doubled them up at the free throw, which was key in the result at the betting window. While the conference record obviously isn't good, it's not like the Dukes were favored to win many of these games (only one, vs. St. Louis, whom they beat). It also hasn't helped that they've had to play most of the top teams in the conference. Overall, they've remained competitive as they're only being outscored by 3.0 PPG for the year.

While 13-7 SU overall, St. Bonaventure's margins of victory have tended to be razor thin. Their most impressive work of the year came at neutral settings. Take those six games away and they're winning by an average margin of less than three points per game! Prior to losing at Rhode Island on Saturday (trailed wire to wire), the Bonnies needed to rally back from 18 down to overcome St. Joe's the game before. With a big home game looming vs. VCU this weekend, I look for this to be a bit of a trap spot for St. Bonaventure, who is just 2-2 ATS as a favorite in conference play. 8* Duquesne

8* Under Pelicans/Pistons (7:35 ET): Both of these teams have been going Over a lot recently, so this is probably a good time to try and go the other way. Over its last five games, Detroit is shooting 48.9% from the floor and averaging 109.4 PPG. Those are much better offensive numbers than what we're used to seeing from Stan Van Gundy's team. The same holds true for the Pelicans, whose last five games have also seen a rise in scoring at the offensive end. Some of that can be attributed to the fact that last night's game (at Toronto) went to overtime. Tied at 96 at the end of regulation, it still was an Under for some (like me!) that bet the game early. Tonight, I don't believe we'll have to worry about OT or much scoring. Take the Under.

The Pistons have not played any OT games recently, but have still scored at least 102 pts in six consecutive contests. This is pretty irregular for what is still the third lowest scoring team in the Eastern Conference. When you talk true shooting numbers, which weigh three point and free throw numbers, this team is always one of the worst in the league. This year has been no different as they rank 27th. Defensively, the team is again driving SVG up a wall w/ four straight bad performances on that end. But for the year, the Pistons are only giving up 98.6 PPG, which is a very good number. New Orleans simply is not as strong offensively as most recent Detroit opponents have been.

The Pelicans average less than 100 PPG on the road and like I said earlier, last night's game went to overtime. The Under is 14-8 in all of their road games so far this season. They did average 113 PPG in a season sweep of Detroit last year, but that included Anthony Davis turning in a career night w/ 57 points in one of them. Last night saw the Pelicans scored only 36 points in the second half in what has to be considered a deflating loss. Other than Davis, there just aren't a ton of offensive options here and now one starting forward (Dante Cunningham) is out w/ a wrist injury.  If there is one silver lining here though; it's that Detroit shot 3 of 27 from three-point range in its last game. I look for a relatively low-scoring game tonight. 8* Under Pelicans/Pistons

8* Orlando (7:35 ET): With a three-game win streak, Indiana has risen to sixth place in what is still a pretty weak Eastern Conference. Despite this, they've still been outscored over the course of the season. They are off an impressive upset of Houston, but that was at home. Now they hit the road where they've gone just 7-16 SU/ATS this year and giving up 110.9 points per game. Furthermore, coming off an upset win has not been an advantageous spot for them this year as they're only 1-6 ATS in the role. Granted, laying just a short number to an Orlando team that is one of the few NOT in the contention in the East might not sound all that challenging. But the Magic have been competitive the L2 games, including an outright win at Toronto. Take the points. 

The Magic admittedly haven't fared well in the past vs. the Pacers. They're just 1-8 SU/ATS L9 H2H meetings including an 0-2 mark this year. Both prior meetings though came in Indiana. The first saw Orlando score just 69 points. The second saw them give up 117. So there's clear work to be done on both ends of the floor here. Fortunately, leading scorer Evan Fournier (16.8 PPG) has returned to the lineup. Also, as mentioned before, Indiana is not good on the defensive end when taking its act on the road. Overall, the Pacers have allowed 100+ pts in 14 of their last 15 games. Last time out, Fournier and the Magic weren't in a great spot, playing the second of B2B road games at Minnesota. They were off the upset of Toronto the night prior, but still were able to take the T'wolves into overtime before falling by only six. Back at home w/ a day off, I expect the team to play well. 

Indiana's win over Houston was surprising, particularly the margin of victory it came by. They shot 54% in a 120-101 outright win as three-point dogs as Paul George scored 30+ for a fourth straight game. The Pacers were also fortunate in that James Harden had an off-shooting night (3 of 17!). Speaking of good fortune, Friday's win over Sacramento would certainly qualify as they basically trailed the whole game before a furious fourth quarter rally led to overtime. I definitely put a ton of stock in the home vs. road split w/ this team as they're being outscored by 6.8 PPG on the road. As a road favorite, they're a terrible 1-6 both SU and ATS. 8* Orlando

10* Clemson (7:00 ET): If his team keeps it up, Georgia Tech's Josh Pastner is certainly going to win ACC Coach of the Year. He probably is worthy of some National COY discussion. That's because his Yellow Jackets, picked to do next to nothing this year, keep pulling upsets. In the last six games alone, they've won straight up four times as a dog. They're 6-0 ATS overall. That stretch started w/ a 75-63 win in Atlanta over Clemson (were +10). Tonight is the rematch w/ the Tigers, in Death Valley, and incredibly Clemson will be asked to lay fewer points here than they were on the road. Granted, CU had lost six in a row before Saturday's 67-60 win at Pitt. But this is still a good team, one that is clearly capable of winning by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here. Lay the points.

Again, I'd like to point out that Ga Tech has yet to be favored in a single ACC game! Their latest upset came on Saturday when they stunned Notre Dame on a last second buzzer beater. It was the Jackets' second victory over a top 15 team last week as they also destroyed Florida State. Both games took place in Atlanta. Against Notre Dame, they trailed by as many as 10 early and were able to overcome poor three-point shooting. Despite the impressive week (and month for that matter), you have to wonder when the Jackets will begin simply regressing to the mean. They are only 1-3 SU on the ACC road mind you. At Virginia, they managed only 49 points. At Duke, they were beaten 110-57. On the offensive end, the team has yet to shoot better than 50% in any conference game this season.

Clemson may not be in the same class as a Virginia or Duke, but like those two teams, they can beat Ga Tech by double digits. Remember that the Tigers opened the year 12-2 SU. Then 2017 happened. After opening ACC play with a win at Wake Forest on New Year's Eveb, the team dropped six straight, four of the losses coming by five points or less. They've had to play North Carolina, Notre Dame, Louisville and Virginia. No shame in losing to those teams. Really, the only "bad" loss is the one to tonight's opponent as they were 10-pt favorites in Atlanta. In retrospect, that was clearly a bad read by the oddsmakers but that doesn't mean it's not a tremendous value now laying fewer points at home. In that first matchup, Clemson shot just 36.7% from the floor. I project major improvement from that number here as they are at 47.2% at home where they average an impressive 81.2 PPG. 10* Clemson

10* San Diego State (11:00 ET): Both teams here are off home losses. That said, it's still a huge benefit for San Diego State to be at home. Whether you're talking football or basketball, Wyoming sports always seems to have one of the sharpest home-road dichotomies. This year's Pokes also have a strong split in terms of being favored or an underdog. When favored, they're 10-0 SU. When they're an underdog, they're just 2-6. Take away the one time they were favored (won 80-70 over lowly San Jose State) and they're just 1-5 SU in "true" roadies with all of the losses coming by six points or more. It's been many years since they last won here at Viejas Arena. Lay the points.

San Diego State was the consensus choice to win the Mountain West this year, but stumbled out of the gate, losing its first three league games. They went on to win the next three, but tonight hope to avoid a pattern as they're off B2B losses, both as favorites. First it was a road loss at Air Force last Tuesday, 60-57, as 6.5-pt chalk. That game saw the Aztecs blow a second point lead. It was another narrow setback on Saturday, this time on the road, as they lost in the final seconds at Colorado State. That was a one-point game. In fact, three of the Aztecs' five league losses have come by three points or less. All three wins have been by double digits. They do remain tops in the conference, giving up just 62.9 points per game. I really do like their chances of a bounce back here.

Among Mountain West teams, Wyoming takes the most three-pointers and makes the fewest. That's a rather dubious combination. They are making less than 30 percent of their attempts from behind the arc in conference play. On the road, that number drops to a horrendous 26.5%. I think the Cowboys simply lack the firepower to keep pace here against what should be a very motivated favorite thaty's looking to bounce back from a pretty rare home defeat. 10* San Diego State

8* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): The last time that the Lakers hosted the Nuggets, oddsmakers had the game as a pick em. So there's clearly some value on the home side in this rematch, although I should point out that the Nuggets did win that last meeting, 127-121. Still, I don't believe that's enough to justify the shift in the market that's taken place. Sure the Lakers have just one SU win in the last three weeks and are w/o PG D'Angelo Russell. But the Nuggets happen to be w/o Nikola Jokic and I do not see them winning a fourth straight game here tonight. Take the points.

Denver has won seven of nine overall and Jokic was a big reason for that. The big man had been averaging 23.9 points, 11.1 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game this month. He's also shooting 60 percent from the floor this season. So his absence is going to be a big deal. The team was able to overcome it Saturday in Phoenix as they got a season-high 32 points from Danilo Gallinari and they went to the free throw line a ridiculous number of times (42), making 37. For the season, their road record is still only 9-14 SU and they are giving up 111.1 points per game overall, third most in the league.

The only time that the Lakers have won since 1.8 was the last time they played at home, 108-96 over Indiana. They just played three in a row on the road and did cover Thursday night in Utah, as 14-pt dogs. They haven't played since, making this the longest stretch of time off they've had between two games all season. It should serve them well. Also, there's a lot of revenge in play here as the Lakers are 0-5 SU and ATS the last five times hosting the Nuggets. At home, the Lakers have been a lot more competitive this year and actually own a positive scoring differential! There aren't exactly a lot of "prime spots" to back the Lakers, but this is one of them. 8* LA Lakers

10* Under Pelicans/Raptors (7:05 ET): Toronto has not played well recently and can no longer blame injuries. All the key players were in uniform for Sunday's embarrassing loss to Orlando where they were 11-pt favorites and gave up 114 points. Overall, it was the Raptors' sixth loss in the last seven games. Defense has been the primary concern as they've given up more than 100 pts in five of the last six, including 113+ three times. Tonight, they'll be hosting a New Orleans team that enters in off its own bad loss from Sunday. This will be the Pelicans' first road game in awhile as they just completed a 3-3 homestand that included wins over Cleveland and San Antonio. The Over cashed in every game but the last one (scored only 94 pts), but I like the Under here.

Without question, the nadir of the homestand for New Orleans was a 143-114 loss to Brooklyn. I'm sure that will end up being the team's worst defensive performance of the season. Thanks to having Anthony Davis in the middle, the Pelicans actually rank #7 in the league in defensive efficiency. That's pretty impressive. What's not impressive though is the fact their offensive numbers tail off on the road, down to only 98.9 PPG. That's more than a full eight point per game decrease from what they average at home. As a result, the Under is 14-7 in their 21 road games thus far. The team is only 26th in offensive efficiency to begin with and like I said earlier is off a game where they scored only 94 points.

Toronto's last game may have soared Over the total but they'd previously held Milwaukee to just 86 points the game before that. Given the criticism levied on the team's defensive play, I expect it to be a point of emphasis for tonight. Outside of Davis, there just isn't a ton to worry about with the Pelicans. Note that for the year neither teams total points per game exceeds what the O/U line is here. I think the value is on the Under here. 10* Under Pelicans/Raptors

10* Ohio State (7:00 ET): Maryland is 19-2 SU and ranked #17 in the country. But, like many, I feel they have been one of the more fortunate teams in the country this year and are nowhere near as good as their record and ranking might seem to indicate. They are 8-0 as an underdog, not just against the spread, but straight up as well. So they've certainly beaten the oddsmakers' low expectations. But, eventually, regression will hit a team I do not believe to be even one of the top 40 in the nation. Yes, you read that correctly. Tonight, they're getting points at Ohio State and while that perfect record as a dog certainly has to give you pause, I'm fading the Terps in this one.

While Maryland went to Minnesota on Saturday and pulled off its eighth outright upset of the year, Ohio State lost at home as a 1-pt dog to Iowa. It was the Buckeyes' second loss in the last three games and each of their previous four (before the Iowa loss) had been decided by six points or less. While OSU is only 3-6 SU in Big 10 play, they started 0-4 and have lost twice at home by two points or less. Their home record is 11-3 SU w/ visitors to Columbus averaging only 63.7 PPG. This is a revenge game too as the Bucks were swept by Maryland in LY's season series, including a close five-point loss here at home. Motivation should be especially high coming off the disappointing performance at Iowa City where they trailed by as many as 20 and let the Hawkeyes shoot 50 percent despite no Peter Jok.

Not only is Maryland 8-0 SU/ATS as a dog, they've won all eight road/neutral site games as well. But this will be their fourth "true" roadie in the last five games overall and eventually that's going to catch up w/ you. It was a come from behind effort Saturday at Minnesota, a performance that is highly unlikely to be duplicated. The Terps scored 59 points in the second half and shot better than 50% for the game, including a preposterous 11 of 18 from three-point range. Maryland is a young team and what we've seen from them thus far is something I view as unsustainable. They profile as a team likely to be upset on the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State is 8-2 ATS after giving up 80+ points its last game. 10* Ohio State

full analysis soon

10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): Just about any objective measure will tell you that the Nets are the worst team in basketball. That's okay though. Tonight, they are getting plenty of points against a bad team that is unaccustomed to the role of large favorite. Miami has shockingly won and covered seven straight games and as a result the market has taken notice. I think that it's important to note that only once have the Heat been favored during this win streak. Of course, it was against these Nets (by 2.5). They were fortunate that it was such a small number as they (Miami) won by only three, 109-106. That result only came about after a stunning 38-17 run to end the game. The Heat have not been favored by more than six points this season and this likely will be their high water mark as a favorite. Take the points.

Brooklyn has just one win since December 26th. They have just two road wins all year. They did win on 1.20 at New Orleans by shockingly scoring 143 points. Since that win, they've been competitive in three of the last five games. Last time out was not one of them as they fell by 20 at Minnesota. But that was also the second game of a back to back (had played Cleveland the previous night). Again, they had the Heat right where they wanted them after three quarters last week. Interestingly, despite the woeful road record, the Nets actually average MORE points per game away from home (108.3).

This play basically boils down to the fact that I think Miami is being severely overvalued. They've hardly dominated as four of the seven wins have been by six points or less. Prior to the streak commencing, I did feel as if the Heat were better than their record, but listen to the chatter now and it's as if people are now entertaining the notion that this might be a playoff team. That's not happening. A low-scoring, below .500 club is simply not a smart bet in this price range. The Heat have been favored only seven times all season and lost three of those games outright. 10* Brooklyn

8* Coastal Carolina (7:00 ET): We're going all Sun Belt with this three-game report as there are some real commonalities with the games. Here, we have Coastal Carolina hosting a revenge game against a TX-Arlington team that is playing on the road for a second time in three days. That's the dreaded spot we've been targeting the last couple days. The Mavericks did win Saturday, 83-67 as seven-point favorites over Appalachian State. It was their fourth consecutive win and cover. But I feel it will be tough for them to win/cover as a road fave for a second time in this short of a span. Coastal Carolina, a SBC newbie, still remembers what happened to them on New Year's Eve. Take the points.

What happened to Coastal Carolina on NYE was a 90-69 beatdown from UT-Arlington. It was a game w/ a ton of three-point attempts (75 total!), but it was actually the Chanticleers inability to make two-point shots that hurt them. Of course, they didn't play any defense either. It's been a real "up and down" start to CC's first year in the Sun Belt as after the loss to UT Arlington, they immediately went on a four-game win streak. They've since dropped three in a row, including a two-point loss here at home to Texas State on Saturday. Their poorest offensive effort of the season was untimely considering they held the Bobcats to just 33.9% shooting.

With Ga Southern losing Saturday, UT Arlington is now just one of three teams within a game of 1st place in the Sun Belt. It should be noted that the Mavericks actually trailed at the half Saturday, 32-24, before exploding for 59 second half points. They did not take their first lead of the game until there was 13:34 left. So the fact they ended up winning by 16 does not tell "the whole story."  Both conference losses took place on the road, for the record (Texas State and Troy). I expect Coastal Carolina to be a lot better defensively here compared to the 1st meeting as they allow only 66.1 PPG at home for the season (opponents shooting only 38%). UT Arlington's average margin of victory as a road favorite is just 2.3 PPG. 8* Coastal Carolina

full analysis soon

10* Evansville (4:00 ET): Has it really been since January 1st? That's the last time Evansville won a game apparently. They beat Northern Iowa 70-58 that day as short 2.5-pt home favorites. Since then, it's been seven straight losses in MVC play for the Purple Aces. What has gone wrong? Well, averaging 61.2 PPG simply isn't going to get it done this time of year. Note that this season was always considered to be a rebuilding year, but I think even the biggest pessimist would not have forecast this. With little to play for the rest of the way, facing the Missouri Valley's top team at home, in a revenge spot no less, may be the last chance to fire the Purple Aces up. With the underdog 11-4 ATS the L15 H2H meetings, I'm taking the points here.

Illinois State is one of the few remaining teams in the country w/o a conference loss. Of course, just yesterday, I targeted one such team (UNC Wilmington) and came away quite happy (they lost big, laying pts on the road). These two teams actually opened conference play against one another and it was ISU winning 62-50 in Normal. Evansville had an awful shooting night, making only 14 of 54 field goal attempts (25.9%!) including 2 of 12 from three-point range. That's still the fewest points scored by the Purple Aces in any game this season. Of note to me is the fact that Illinois State was a 7.5-point favorite for that contest. The line is essentially identical here for the rematch, despite the change in venue!

Illinois State is in first place in the MVC, but they are not the best team in the league (Wichita State is). I tip my cap to the Redbirds for beating the Wheat Shockers two weeks ago (game was in Normal), but you can bet Greg Marshall will have his team ready for next weekend's big rematch. ISU stayed unbeaten in conference play w/ a narrow 71-66 win over Larry Bird's alma mater (Indiana State) on Wednesday. It was their 10th straight win, but it didn't come easy as they trailed at halftime (at home) and shot only 40.8% from the field. It's difficult to beat the same team twice in a season, let alone cover both times. The fact that Evansville allows only 61.7 PPG at home will keep them in this one. 10* Evansville

8* Cleveland (3:30 ET): It has been a miserable start to 2017 for the defending champs, who are a money burning 2-11 ATS this month. As a result, I think many will be surprised to find them laying this number to Oklahoma City. I won't be taking the "bait," however. Rather, I'm going to buy low on LeBron James and company as OKC is by no means what they once were when Kevin Durant was here. The Thunder roll into Cleveland on a three-game win streak, but they have a losing road record due to giving up an unsightly 108.2 PPG. That won't work against a Cavs team that's still among the most efficient in the league offensively. While Russell Westbrook considers to draw well-deserved praise for his individual play, the team's offensive efficiency is way down this year.

Also, OKC will now be w/o Enes Kanter for the foreseeable future. Thursday night vs. Dallas, Kanter made the regrettable decision to punch a chair and ended up fracturing his forearm. His absence moving forward will drastically impact the team's rebounding, which rated among the best in the league. As alluded to earlier, this is not a great offensive team despite Westbrook putting together one of the great individual seasons in recent memory. Last season, they were right behind top ranked Golden State for the most efficient offense in the league. This year, they're down to #17! This, along with the poor defensive numbers on the road (see above), is not a good combination when facing Cleveland.

LeBron did not hold back in his criticism of the Cavs' current roster construction. While they did recently add Kyle Korver, JR Smith is still out w/ an injury. Their own defense, or lack of it, remains a concern. But here at home, the team is still 20-5 SU and averaging an impressive 113.5 PPG. A 124-116 win over league-worst Brooklyn is no reason to throw a parade, but again, I view this as an opportunity to "buy low" on a team that's been a double digit favorite in four of its past five games. The Cavs swept the Thunder last season when Durant was still in the fold. Recently, OKC lost by 20+ to both the Clippers and Warriors on the road. 8* Cleveland

8* Detroit (2:00 ET): At one point, Wisc GB was the lone remaining unbeaten in the Horizon League. The Phoenix began conference play 5-0 SU, but it was hardly the most daunting slate of games. Then they dropped B2B games at Valpo (blown out) and at home to Youngstown State (stunner!). They've seemingly "reversed course" over the past week though w/ wins over Cleveland State and more notably, Oakland. The Phoenix were eight-point underdogs for their visit to Oakland, which they ended up winning straight up by eight points. But this marks the dreaded "second road game in three days" spot where I love to fade teams, particularly if they're laying points on the road. This is a proverbial letdown spot for the road chalk.

Detroit is certainly hoping for a bit of a letdown from the Phoenix because they've lost three straight, giving up 100+ pts twice in the process! Ironically though, they are off an overtime loss where the final score was only 73-69. That was Friday, here at home, versus WI-Milwaukee. The Titans were short-handed for that game as starter Chris Jenkins (leading rebounder) was out w/ a hip injury. He could return today. Also, Jenkins or no Jenkins, the Titans should have won Friday. But they were an absolutely atrocious 9 of 29 from the three throw line! Such a performance cannot possibly be repeated again this season. While it's certainly been a rough season thus far for the Titans, let's take into account the Jenkins' injury and the fact they've have to play five of their last seven on the road. Remember - this team also upset Oakland on the road - as 18.5-pt underdogs.

Detroit's defensive numbers definitely gave me pause initially, but then again, Wisconsin GB is no defensive stalwart by any means. The Phoenix allow 76.6 PPG, a bad number when you're favored on the road. Unlike Detroit, this team has gotten to play the majority of its Horizon League games at home thus far. In only one of the previous four, against Youngstown State (worst team in the league), were they favored.  It's important to note that the Phoenix could again be w/o starting point guard Trevor Anderson.  8* Detroit

8* Over Grizzlies/Jazz (9:05 ET): As you probably are well aware, scoring is way up in the NBA this year. So, by 2017 standards, this is a borderline microscopic O/U line. Of course, given the participants, we shouldn't be too surprised. Memphis and Utah are the ONLY two teams in the league that neither score nor allow 100 PPG. But it should be noted the Grizzlies are within a hair of that threshold on both ends, scoring 99.9 PPG while giving up 99.7. Last night, they lost 112-109 in Portland, ending a streak of four straight Unders. Utah is also just below 100 PPG themselves (99.4), so this total simply looks too low given the season long averages. Take the Over.

Further aiding our cause is the fact that the Grizz give up 104.8 PPG on the road this year, a number which obviously jumped a bit after last night's result. That will somewhat counteract Utah's PPG allowed going down here at home as the gap is greater on Memphis' end. The Grizz have also scored at least 101 pts in six of their last seven games, ironically only failing to do so against Houston. The Over is 15-8 in Memphis' road games this season. Utah, who has gone Under in three straight themselves, had scored 100+ every time out in a six game win streak prior. Two of the three home games this year when the total is sub-190 have gone Over the total for them.

These teams have met twice before, both times in Memphis. Yes, both games stayed Under similarly low totals. But the first meeting saw abborrent shooting, particularly from the Grizzlies side as they were 2 for 23 from three-point range. Also, Utah didn't really help itself from the free throw line in either game, going a combined 28 of 48. For the year, the Jazz may not be great at the charity stripe, but they're at least 75%.  They also shoot 37.4% from three-point range at home (47% overall). We may not see another O/U line this low for the rest of the NBA season. 8* Over Grizzlies/Jazz

8* Under Nuggets/Suns (9:05 ET): These teams just played Thursday in Denver and the final score was 127-120 in favor of the Nuggets. Clearly, a high-scoring result should not surprise you as Denver is the top Over team in the league this year. In fact, the Over is now an incredible 24-6 for them even when the O/U line is 210 or higher! Phoenix is hardly a defensive stalwart as they allow 111.8 PPG, which is right around the same number Denver gives up. But I'm willing to bank that they can't go Over the same high number a second straight time and thus I'm on the Under here. Even w/ the somewhat dramatic increase we've seen in scoring this season, this is a high number. Neither team's games average more 221.2 PPG.

Having just met two nights ago, there should obviously be greater familiarity between the two sides. Now, I'm well aware that all three matchups this year have gone Over. But the O/U line was made significantly higher for Thursday's meeting. Denver has scored at least 120 in all three games vs. Phoenix this year, but is expected to be w/o Nikola Jokic tonight, which would be a major loss. Jokic tallied 27 points, 14 rebounds and eight assists before leaving w/ a hip strain Thursday night. The injury took place w/ less than two minutes remaining in the game, so it had no bearing on the outcome. But missing Jokic for a full game here would obviously have a somewhat dramatic effect on offensive production.

Also on Thursday, Denver made 21 of 25 free throws - in the second half! They should not get that kind of "added production" here on the road. For the year, they average 26 free throws per GAME. Additionally, I don't see the teams combining to shoot as well as they did Thursday. Both were better than 51% including 19 of 52 from three-point range. Even by both team's lofty standards, this is a really high total. They may have gone Over it Thursday, but consider a "tipping point" of sorts as Denver in particularly is highly likely to see overall scoring decrease somewhat moving forward. 8* Under Nuggets/Suns

8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): This is a really rough spot for visiting Sacramento. They blew a second half lead last night in Indiana and ended up losing in overtime. This will not only be the the second game of a B2B tonight, but their sixth consecutive road game as well. Likewise, host Charlotte is playing w/o rest and off a deflating loss. The Hornets fell to to dysfunctional Knicks on the road Friday night, 110-107, their third straight loss and fourth in a row where they failed to cover. But back at home, I expect massive improvement. Charlotte swept the season series last year, both of which were high scoring affairs. I look for the road-weary Kings to simply run out of gas here. Lay the points.

The current three-game losing streak leaves the Hornets a game below .500 and a precarious seventh in the Eastern Conference. But in terms of point differential and efficiency rating (which are closely tied together), they are the fourth best team in the East. Getting outscored by eight points in the fourth quarter by the Knicks is certainly not a good look. But the other two losses during this streak came to red-hot Washington and Golden State (top team in the league). Going cold in the 4Q is what cost them last night in MSG. They've now lost all seven road games in January. But at home, they remain 15-9 SU for the year, averaging 105.6 points per game.

Sacramento scored 64 points in the first half last night and found itself up 16 midway through the third quarter. That's when things began to unravel for them. They had no answer for the Pacers' Paul George, who scored 33 points and made 16 of 17 free throws. Indiana ended regulation on a 17-5 run to force an extra five minutes of play. It will be very challenging for the Kings to get over the fact they just lost a road game where they outshot the opponent 50% to 37.7%. They have won just twice in nine tries in the second game of back to back this year. I should also mention that Sacramento has played B2B overtime games as they won in Cleveland Wednesday night. They are now 0-4 SU coming off an OT game this season. Remember they are down a key man (Rudy Gay) for the rest of the season. 8* Charlotte

10* William & Mary (4:00 ET): UNC Wilmington is still unbeaten in CAA play (20-2 SU overall) following Thursday's 87-76 win at James Madison. If one were to omit Gonzaga from the discussion, then there's probably a legit argument to be made that the Seahawks are the top mid-major in the country this season. But laying points on the road for the second time in three days can be tricky. Here they'll be taking on a William & Mary team that is not only unbeaten at home (averaging 91.5 PPG!), but will certainly be hungry for revenge after getting humiliated 16 days ago down in Wilmington, 101-77. It should be noted that W&M covered both meetings last season including an 18-point win here at home. Take the points.

William & Mary is now 8-0 SU at home following Thursday's 82-58 blowout of a bad Delaware team. That win and cover actually snapped a five-game ATS losing skid. The Tribe shot almost 57% from the field in the win, including 11 of 23 from three-point range. They led by double digits most of the way. Looking back at that first meeting w/ UNCW, there are two things I expect to very different this go around. One is W&M leading scorer Daniel Dixon is highly unlikely to be held to just 10 pts again. That marked a season-low for Dixon, who averages 19.0 PPG in conference play. Also, the William & Mary defense is generally outstanding at home. They let UNCW shoot 55.7% from the floor in the first meeting. Look for that number to come way down here.

UNCW has dominated the CAA the L2 seasons, but they haven't had much luck here in Harrisonburg. Their last win here came back in 2012 and overall they've dropped seven of nine to the Tribe. Last year's visit was a "real bitter pill to swallow" as they allowed 23 straight points in the second half to go from 12 up to an eventual 18-point loss. I already mentioned that W&M is averaging an outstanding 91.5 PPG here at home. Well, they're allowing only 66.5 on 40% shooting as well. UNCW couldn't miss in the first meeting, but the fact they allow 47% shooting on the road while W&M shoots 53.6% at home will lead to a dramatic reversal of fortune tonight. 10* William & Mary

10* Eastern Michigan (3:30 ET): This game will carry special importance for Eastern Michigan. Not only are the Eagles coming off B2B losses, the last one coming as seven-point home faves Tues vs. Ball State, but they have not won a game here in Oxford in a LONG time. My records (go back to '97) show it's been 11 straight losses on the road to MAC rival Miami. But despite what we've seen recently, this year's Eagles team is clearly superior to the RedHawks. EMU is still tied for the lead in the MAC West, having gone 4-3 SU in conference play. Meanwhile, Miami has really struggled. They'd lost five in a row before sneaking by Buffalo (by a single point) Tuesday. I'll lay the points here as when the teams met LY in Ypsilanti, the Eagles prevailed by 25.

A lack of rebounding really hurt Eastern Michigan Tuesday night in Muncie as they were -8 on the glass against Ball State and lost 88-80. Allowing 12 offensive rebounds was a real killer and I will concede rebounding is a weak spot for this team. But that's not as big of a concern when they're making shots. They come in averaging 81.0 PPG, which is tied for 36th in the country. They scored 50 in the second half alone Tuesday. After shooting below 40% each of the L2 games, I expect massive improvement tonight. Last Friday's loss at Akron (still unbeaten in conference) was certainly excusable. This is a really important game for the Eagles to win so they can at least stay tied for the division lead. As a road favorite, they are 2-0 this season, winning by an average margin of 27 points per game.

Miami actually trailed Buffalo by as many as eight points Tuesday before rallying for the eight-point win. Typically not a great defensive team, the RedHawks held the Bulls to just 40% shooting for the game. Three of their previous five opponents shot at least 54% from the field. That's bad news against a potent offense like the one Eastern Michigan brings to town. By the way, EMU is holding conference opponents below 40% shooting from the floor so far this season! I feel they're ready to snap this long losing streak in Oxford, not to mention bounce back from a tough week overall. 10* Eastern Michigan

8* Houston (8:05 ET): I'm a firm believer in regression to the mean and in the case of these two teams, that's what we should be seeing tonight. The Sixers, while certainly improved from the doldrums of the last few years, have been playing above their heads of late. They just won at Milwaukee two nights ago (were 11-pt dogs) and are 8-2 STRAIGHT UP the L10 games, making this their best stretch of basketball in some time. Houston, on the other hand, has lost two in a row as favorites. I played against them Monday in Milwaukee and then they again failed to get the job done in Boston. But this remains one of the best teams in the league right now. It may seem like a lot of points to lay given Philly's recent play, but do it. 

Earlier this season, Houston beat Philadelphia 115-88 as 11-pt home favorites. In terms of offense, this remains a major mismatch. The Rockets are third in the league in offensive efficiency while the Sixers are 30th (by a comfortable margin). With the increase in scoring we've seen this season, there just aren't many teams still scoring below 100 PPG, but you can count Philly among them. Meanwhile, Houston averages the second most points per game in the league (114.3), trailing only Golden State. I just don't see how the 76ers will be able to keep pace here, especially w/o Joel Embiid. Defensively, it's not as if they are that superior to the Rockets where it can negate the massive edge Houston has offensively.

Houston has lost three of four due to the fact they've allowed 120+ in all three losses. That won't be an issue here, trust me. Philly is off two of its best offensive showings of the year and shot 53.3% vs. Milwaukee. But I can't see them sustaining that. The Rockets are also 16-6 ATS this season when faced w/ a team with a losing record. 8* Houston