8* Under Raptors/Magic (7:05 ET): Helping drive this O/U line up is the fact Toronto is 5-0 Over its L5 games, averaging over 120 PPG. This is a high-scoring team, but they've been at or above their season average for seven consecutive games now and eventually that streak has to come to an end. Tonight brings a seemingly "easy" matchup w/ the Magic, who have lost six in a row, but they've been competitive in those losses. These teams have not met previously this season, so there will be a small sense of unfamiliarity here. Orlando's last six games have all season both they and the opponent top 100+ pts. That's another streak likely to end sooner than later, so I'm taking the Under tonight.

Toronto has shot the ball extremely well since the All-Star Break. They made 52.5% of their FG attempts against Detroit the other night in a 123-94 beatdown. But that was also at home where they are averaging 113.3 PPG for the year. In fact, the Raptors have the best home point differential in the league this year. This is a road game and I don't expect the shots to fall w/ that kind of regularity. Yes, they have scored 100 or more in 12 straight games and Monday was the 19th time they went overe 120 this season. But keep in mind that in their first game back from the All-Star Break, they missed 25 of 34 attempts in a 122-119 loss to Milwaukee. The amount of scoring in that game is skewed because it went into overtime. 

Orlando is no offensive juggernaut, though they are averaging over 105 PPG for the year. Lost in the conversation about Toronto's offense is that they've also been defending well of late. Five of their last eight opponents have failed to reach 100 pts. Only two of the last eight opponents have shot better than 43% or better from the field. So, I wouldn't expect a banner offensive day here from Magic. A bad sign here for Orlando is they shot 56% from the field in the 1H vs. OKC on Monday (scored 62 pts) and still lost. There's no way they'll be that prolific again here. 8* Under Raptors/Magic

10* Robert Morris (7:00 ET): This is a 1st round matchup in the Northeast Conference (#2 vs. #7 seed) w/ RMU going for revenge as they lost here only six days ago, by the lopsided score of 72-53. In fact, the Colonials have double revenge as they were also blown out at home by MSM, 67-42, back on Feb 1st. My intuition tells me the third time may very well be the charm for Robert Morris and at the very least this game is going to be a lot closer. Granted, RMU didn't exactly have a sterling end to the regular season as they've dropped three in a row. Meanwhile, Mt. St. Mary's has won three straight. But the head to head results from the reg season aren't indicative of the true gap between these teams, which is a lot smaller than you think. Take the points. 

It's been awhile since Robert Morris beat their NEC rivals. They've lost all seven matchups the L3 seasons, including the two blowouts this year. But even after dropping seven of their last night, I can make the case that the Colonials are the best of the bottom four in the NEC. They've been outscored by less than two points per game on the year and are a respectable 9-10 SU away from home. They were outscored by just over a point in conference play. Tiebreakers are what made this the 2 vs.7 (seed) matchup in the quarterfinals as RMU actually finished tied for the fourth best overall SU record among NEC teams. Meanwhile, Mt. St. Mary's was third, just three games better than the Colonials.

RMU did not shoot the ball well - at all - when they hosted MSM in the regular season. We're talking a 29.8 FG% including a horrendous 3 of 21 from three-point range. They were better in the rematch, but so was MSM. The Mountaineers do have the NEC Player of the Year on their roster, Junior Robinson, but I'm going to question how they'll respond after a huge win over top seed Wagner in the reg season finale. Yes, MSM has lost only two of its last 10 games and those losses were by a combined three points. But it's very hard to beat the same team three times in the same season, let alone a month, so taking the points is the way to go in this winner take all matchup. 10* Robert Morris

8* Under Clippers/Nuggets (10:35 ET): This is a big game, worthy of national TV coverage (it's on TNT). Denver currently leads the Clippers by one game, an advantage that would obviously go away w/ a loss here, for eighth place in the Western Conference. As we know, it's the top eight that make the playoffs. I've been impressed w/ how the Clippers have played since trading Blake Griffin to Detroit, especially on this road trip which ends tonight. The trip, which began before the All-Star Break (on 2.9), has seen them go 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS w/ the only losses coming at Philadelphia (who has been hot) and Golden State (no explanation needed). Though a seventh straight road game sounds really brutal (especially in high elevation), the Clips have had the last three days off, not to mention the All-Star Break mixed in. 

Denver is playing its third straight home game. Coming out of the Break, they've split against the Spurs and Rockets, which is fine when you consider that level of opposition. They did allow 119 pts in both games, which is not good, but my guess is we'll start to see some defensive improvement tonight. In the last six games, the Nuggets have allowed an average of 118.8 PPG. All six games have gone Over the total and the team is 10-1 Over its L11 games. But, at home, the Nuggets allow only 104.9 PPG for the season. So the likelihood of regression to the mean seems strong here. Same thing w/ the Nuggets offense, which has been scoring more than usual of late. Overall, their games are averaging just over 215 PPG for the season. This will be just the fourth game w/ an OU line of 230+ for them in 2017-18. 

Meanwhile, the Clippers have scored 129,127 and 128 points their last three games! How likely is that to continue? Not very, in my opinion. Those were three easy Overs obviously, but since the Break they faced Golden State (top offensive team) and Phoenix (worst defensive team). Consider that when these teams met last month, the total was nearly 15 pts lower and still stayed Under. That means we've got some serious value here as both teams are due to return to their "normal" levels of scoring. 8* Under Clippers/Nuggets

8* Creighton (9:00 ET): The only reason I can think of as to why this line opened so low is that the oddsmakers are expecting some sort of letdown from Creighton after they upset Villanova on Saturday. But a letdown is something the Blue Jays simply cannot afford right now going into the BIg East Tournament. Obviously, 'Nova and Xavier are the two teams to beat in this league (both ranked in the top four nationally). However, Creighton probably has as legit a claim as anybody to being the third best Big East team.  That being said, they enter Tuesday in a four-way tie for third (w/ Seton Hall, Butler and Providence) at 9-7 SU in conference play. Winning out would thus be a very big deal for the Bluejays.

On the other hand, DePaul, will be one of the bottom four teams forced to play an Opening Rd game next week in NYC. The Blue Demons are 4-12 SU in Big East play, one game ahead of last place St. John's. Considering they have this game, followed by Xavier, the chances of them losing out seem pretty high. Now, like Creighton, DePaul is off a SU win as a home dog. They beat Marquette Saturday, 70-62 (were getting 3 pts). There were two huge factors in the Blue Demons pulling off that upset. One was rebounding as a 49-30 advantage on the boards led to a 15-4 edge in second chance points. The other was free throw shooting. While Marquette attempted only nine free throws the entire game, DePaul had 32. I don't see either edge being present tonight. 

Creighton isn't ranked in the AP Poll (#24 in Coaches), but I have them among my Top 25 teams in the country. They had lost two in a row and four of six heading into Saturday, but beating Villanova all but clinches their spot in the NCAA Tournament. Yes, they needed overtime on Saturday after trailing by eight w/ only 4:30 to go. But consider they had learned earlier in the day that starting forward Ronnie Harrell, Jr would be out w/ a foot infection. (He could return here). The Bluejays shot the ball much better than did Villanova as well, which is impressive when you consider how efficient Nova's offense has been. But, maybe we shouldn't have been surprised as Creighton averages over 90 PPG at home (shooting 52.9%). I know it was only a one-point win over DePaul the first time (which came directly after a 20-pt LOSS to 'Nova), but consider the line value we're getting. The Bluejays were seven-point favorites on the ROAD that game. Lay it! 8* Creighton

10* Kent State (7:00 ET): The Golden Flashes play their final home game tonight and have legit revenge for an 11-point loss down in Oxford in January. That 1st meeting w/ Miami saw the RedHawks shoot nearly 52% from the field, including 10 of 25 from three-point range. Meanwhile, Kent State could only manage to shoot 5 for 18 from "downtown." A change in venue should lead to a change in result however, and it certainly helps that we're getting some added value on the home team tonight. That can be attributed to the fact that Miami is off B2B upsets, the last one coming at Akron on Saturday. I can't see the RedHawks winning B2B road games, even though they are a somewhat shocking 10-4 ATS on the road this season. Lay the points.

Kent State has been favored only seven times this season, but has won six of those games straight up. They did just fail to cover Saturday, hosting Bowling Green, as that was a 64-63 final w/ a 4.5-pt spread. That game certainly could have gone either way as there were five lead changes in the final minute alone as the Golden Flashes needed two free throws in the final four seconds to secure the win. However, I was impressed by the Flashes winning in spite of some poor shooting. Interestingly enough, their two lowest scoring efforts of February both came against Bowling Green. They're only 2-5 SU and ATS this month overall, but their home record is still 11-3 SU for the season. On Senior Night, I expected a highly motivated performance.

There's a good chance that the winner of this game will be finishing in 2nd place in the MAC East. If Miami wins, that is guaranteed. There is a chance (for both teams) that a 2nd place finish would give them a bye into the quarterfinals of the MAC Tourney in Cleveland next week. Kent State knows it can play better than it did the first time vs. Miami when they trailed by 23 pts at halftime. Defense was huge against Bowling Green Saturday as they held the Falcons to a 33.8 FG% (lowest this year vs. any D-I opponent) and set a program record w/ 11 blocked shots. I think defense will be big again here. Miami is only shooting 40.8% from the field its last five games. Their win Saturday over Akron required OT and was 51-51 at the end of regulation (they trailed 31-17 at halftime!). That was also the RedHawks' second OT game in the L10 days. They may be "out of gas" here. 10* Kent State

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Wow. The Lakers are road favorites for a second straight time here. What is the world coming to? They won and covered Saturday in Sacramento, 113-108, laying a point and a half. They are actually 2-0 SU/ATS since the All-Star Break having also downed Dallas at home on Friday. Overall, they'll be looking to make it 7 wins in the last 10 games as they visit another 18-win team Monday, that being Atlanta. The Hawks are playing their first home game in two weeks here as they are coming off a winless three-game road trip that was wrapped around the Break. Not surprisingly, they are a lot more competitive here at Phillips Arena.

The Hawks are the league's youngest team w/ nine players on the roster in their first or second season. So growing pains were clearly expected in 2018 and sure enough they haven't "disappointed." I will say that they are not demonstrably worse than the other three bottom teams in the East. On the road, they are dreadful (5-25 SU), but like I said earlier, they are competitive at home w/ a 13-17 SU record and only being outscored by 2.5 points per game. In their first game back from the All-Star Break, the Hawks lost to the Pacers by 23 points. So they should be motivated here. Further adding to the motivation is them looking to avenge a 19-point loss out in LA last month.

The Lakers are playing better now, but this is still a 10-20 SU team on the road and I don't like laying points (no matter how many minimal) with that resume. They didn't exactly blowout Sacramento either. It was a 113-108 final after they trailed at the half. They also needed a career-best 34 points from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, half of those coming in a decisive third quarter. This is a team that still gives up 113.8 points per game on the road. Atlanta is a curiously outstanding 15-5 ATS in Western Conference games this season. It all adds up to this being a pretty solid price on the Hawks here. They were only 3.5-pt dogs when they visited Staples Center last month. That game saw the Lakers shoot better than 55% from the field, which will not happen here. The Hawks are also 10-4 ATS this season when on a losing sreak of three games or more. 10* Atlanta 

8* Virginia Tech (7:00 ET): In the final home game of the year, Va Tech will host Duke. The Blue Devils will almost certainly improve upon their #5 ranking when the new poll comes out later in the day. That's because not only did #3 Villanova lose Saturday, but Coach K's team has won and covered five straight. They're certainly in play for a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament if they were to win the final two regular season games and the ACC Tournament. As per usual, Duke will close its regular season vs. North Carolina. (That game will be in Cameron). Virginia Tech's status is a lot more precarious after they lost here in Blacksburg to Louisville on Saturday. The Hokies could really use a marquee win and I'll take the points. 

It actually wasn't long ago that these squads last met. It was Valentine's Day in Cameron and needless to say, Duke wasn't in a very "loving mood" as they waxed the Hokies 74-52 as 10.5-pt chalk. But this is obviously a road game and four of the Blue Devils' five losses this season have come on the road. A big part of that is the fact they give up 79.6 PPG away from home. Now Marvin Bagley III is set to return Monday. But it's not as if the Blue Devils appeared to miss the ACC's leading scorer/rebounder. Might his return actually have a short-term adverse effect on the team as they work to integrate him back into the offense? It's certainly possible. 

Va Tech is a strong 6-1 ATS the last three seasons when seeking revenge for a loss of 20+ points. That includes a 2-0 mark this season. Furthermore, they attempted only four free throws in the first meeting. Duke went zone for the entire duration of that first meeting, something that caught the Hokies' coaching staff off-guard. It also didn't help that leading scorer Justin Robinson battled foul trouble much of the contest. The Hokies are a strong home team (13-4 SU overall, outscoring teams by about 15 PPG). Last week saw them beat a top 15 team (Clemson) here. Yes, they lost to Louisville, but the three-point line was a big difference in that one to a degree I don't believe will be present here. The Hokies actually shoot the ball better than Duke, both from two-point and three-point range. At home, they're shooting an incredible 52.2 percent. 8* Virginia Tech 

10* Connecticut (4:00 ET): Both of these once-proud programs have fallen on hard times. So it will be little on the line with the exception of pride Sunday afternoon. Pride is something that seems to be severely lacking in Storrs right now where UConn is coming off a 25-point loss at Cincinnati earlier in the week. But that was hardly a great spot for the Huskies as not only were they facing a legit Top 10 team on the road, but the Bearcats were also angry, off a loss. UConn has just two wins in its last eight games and those have come by a total of seven points over South Florida and East Carolina. But this is a huge revenge spot for them as they were humiliated down in Memphis back in January, losing 73-49 as three-point dogs. Lay the points.

That same night (Thursday) that UConn was being blown out in Cincy, Memphis was recording perhaps its most impressive victory of the season as they beat Houston 91-85 as six-point home dogs. It was the Tigers' third consecutive victory, all of those coming as underdogs. The other two were at SMU and Tulane. Note, however, that all three wins were by six points or less. Beating a ranked squad like Houston is nice, but note the Tigers did trail by as many as 13 in the contest. A lot of that can be attributed to the fact Houston shot only 32.3% from the field in the second half. Meanwhile, Memphis shot 61% in the 2H. Also, the Tigers were quite fortunate in that UH (one of the top three-point shooting teams in the country) went just 11 of 29 from behind the arc.

However, and this is a really big deal, not all the news for Memphis was good coming out of the Houston game. Starting point guard Jeremiah Martin broke his left foot, which will require surgery, so he's done for the season. That's a huge loss as the team was just starting to build some momentum. Martin was leading the AAC in both points (18.9) and steals (2.3) per game. As for UConn, a five-game ATS skid is due to end. They get back their leading scorer, Jalen Adams, who missed the Cincinnati game due to the flu. Without him, the Huskies simply never got going against a superior opponent and it didn't help that they got only five points total from the bench. This game takes place in Gampel Pavillion where UConn is 6-1 SU this season. 10* Connecticut

10* New Orleans (3:05 ET): Two teams fighting for playoff position in their respective conferences meet Sunday afternoon in Milwaukee. The Bucks' second half of the season got off to a nice start as they went to Toronto Friday and upset the Raptors, 122-119 in overtime (were 7-pt dogs). Winning "North of the Border" is not easy to do (Toronto's home record is a league best 24-5 SU) plus the Raptors were coming out of the All-Star Break on a seven-game win streak. But, I have my doubts as to how well the Bucks will play, post-upset. New Orleans comes in hot (won four straight) and this is a spot Milwaukee has NOT fared well in all season. Off a SU win as a dog, they've gone just 3-6 SU and 2-6-1 ATS. Take the points.

New Orleans' is also off an overtime win, theirs coming at home vs. Miami on Friday. Anthony Davis played another ridiculous game, finishing w/ 45 points, 17 rebounds, five blocks and five steals. Not long ago, Davis infamously said the Pelicans would be a "Finals team" if not for the Boogie Cousins injury. I wouldn't go that far, but this is a team that's certainly had little difficulty scoring of late. Granted, two of the four wins during the current streak were OT affairs, but they've still totaled at least 118 pts in every game. This is a team that already ranks 4th in the league in points per game. Milwaukee had recently shown some defensive improvement (after firing HC Jason Kidd), but that's largely been "out the window" these L2 games.

The Bucks are only 10-16-3 ATS at home this season. They are trying to reach nine games above .500 for the first time in nearly EIGHT years today. While Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to draw league MVP consideration, that has somewhat inflated the overall outlook on the team. This is a pretty mediocre lot when you break it down as they've scored and allowed roughly the same number of points per game on the year. You can say the same for New Orleans, but they play in the tougher conference and are the team getting points today. Though Milwaukee has won 10 of its last 13 games, that's mainly come at the expense of a pretty weak schedule. They lost down in the Big Easy, 115-108, back in December and the bottom line is I believe the Pelicans are still the better team. 10* New Orleans

10* Florida (8:30 ET): The Gators have now lost three in a row and its getting harder and harder for me to justify calling this a top 25 team. Now, it should be pointed out that all three losses have been by five points or less. Wednesday, it was a poor shooting night at Tennessee (35.0%) that cost them in a 62-57 loss. Things get no easier tonight as they face the SEC's other "surprise" team, that being Auburn, who leads the conference w/ a 12-3 SU record. The Tigers are 24-4 SU overall and coming off a dominant 90-71 win over rival Alabama. That was a nice bounce back from a loss in their last road game, at South Carolina. I know it seems as if these teams are trending in opposite directions, but I'm on Florida here.

Auburn has certainly had little to no success vs. Florida through the years, particularly in Gainesville. They are 3-23 SU the L26 head to head matchups, including an 0-11 SU mark in Gainesville. So that's a lot of history going against them. Now there's no denying the job Bruce Pearl has done here and that this isn't your typical Auburn squad. Picked to finish 9th in the SEC back in the preseason, the Tigers instead can now clinch at least a share of the regular season crown w/ one more victory. The fact they have pulled this off despite losing two contributors that were projected to be key (before the season even started) is stunning. But now we're starting to see even more attrition. Only eight players suited up against 'Bama as Anfernee McLemore was lost for the season (ankle) in the South Carolina game and Mustapha Heron (second leading scorer) is battling the flu (questionable for tonight). It's obviously difficult to win on the road w/ such a short rotation. 

For Florida, it's all about tonight as they are desperate for a win. They have shockingly dropped three of their last five home games, all as favorites of nine points or greater. The last two losses came on the road, however. They led Vandy at the half, but came out very slow at Tennessee. Something to keep in mind though is that this is the same team that went to South Carolina two weeks ago and won by 24. That's the same South Carolina team that upset Auburn last Saturday. I believe tonight is a breakout game for the Gators. 10* Florida

10* Memphis (7:35 ET): Things are obviously not going very well in Memphis right now where I've seen the Grizzlies referred to as a "dumpster fire" recently, amongst other unkind words. For the record, the team has dropped eight in a row and last night's home game vs. Cleveland completely unraveled after a somewhat promising start. The Grizz actually led by seven after the 1st quarter, but from there were outscored 92-62 in what ended up being a 112-89 loss (as five-point dogs). Tonight they hit the road to face a fellow unrested team, that being Miami. The Heat also lost last night, 124-123 in New Orleans, in overtime. Given the respective ways the two teams lost Friday, I think the Heat are actually in the worse situation here and asking them to lay points is something I'd want no part of.

To me, Miami has been an overachiever this season. That might sound odd considering they're only in eighth place in the Eastern Conference, but consider they were higher in the standings before some predictable regression started to take hold. This is a team that's been outscored this season and has consistently been "in the red" when it comes to an efficieny rating. Both Detroit and Charlotte (two teams behind them in standings) have better YTD point differentials. While it's true the Heat have covered four in a row, they are just 2-8 SU their L10 games and aren't a favorite as much as you might think. Going back to Jan 15th, tonight marks only the sixth time they've been favored. They've lost three of those previous five outright and are only 8-16 ATS overall at home this season, regardless if they're favored or not. 

Tonight also marks the ninth consecutive game that the Grizzlies have been an underdog. They have not been good on the road this year, which is actually an understatement when you consider their 5-21 SU road record is second worst in the league (only Atlanta is worse). But as ugly as things were before the All-Star Break and over the final three quarters last night, I don't see the Grizz getting blown out here. Both teams play at very deliberate paces, which lends itself to taking the points in what promises to be a low-scoring game. 10* Memphis

8* Oklahoma (6:15 ET): Given that it was a little over a month ago that the Sooners came in FAVORED at Kansas State, this line sure looks a "steal," doesn't it? Now, I fully recognize there are substantial reasons that the oddsmakers have adjusted so dramatically for the rematch. One is that Kansas State won that 1st meeting by 18 points. The other is that OU has essentially gone down the tubes ever since. Their losing streak reached six games on Monday w/ a humiliating 30-pt setback in Lawrence (to Kansas) that leaves them at only 16-11 SU for the year. Their status as a NCAA Tournament team seems secure, but losing 9 of 12 overall certainly is not a good look. Monday aside, many of those losses have been close.

Kansas State has won and covered three in a row and is 9-4 ATS its L13 games overall. The Wildcats beat Texas on Wednesday, in Manhattan, 58-48 as the Longhorns shot a woeful 28.6% from the field, including 2 of 18 from three-point range. What's interesting about the Wildcats' three game win streak is the last two games were both at home and they were tied at the half. So it's not exactly been a dominant streak we're talking about here. They are only 1-5 ATS this season after allowing 60 pts or fewer the previous game. I see the chances for defensive regression being high as they've held the L5 opponents to 40.3% shooting, but for the year, that number jumps substantially away from home as do the number of pts allowed.

You have to remember that there was a time where OU was the talk of College Basketball w/ freshman Trae Young drawing Steph Curry comparisons. I always thought that was a case of putting the cart before the horse and truthfully I'm not shocked the Sooners have regressed (many projection models did not like them even when they were winning). But we've now reached a point where their value could not possibly be lower. What happened Monday (on national TV) was downright humiliating and they've had two more days to prepare than Kansas State did here. The Sooners are still 11-2 SU here in Norman where they average a whopping 93.2 points per game. This has to turn around, right? 8* Oklahoma 

8* Detroit (2:00 ET): This is a regular season finale out in the Horizon League and most likely Detroit's last shot at achieving something meaningful in 2018. The Titans enter Saturday's game w/ an 8-22 SU overall record and are off an ugly 72-49 loss to Milwaukee on Thursday, which took place here at home. A 4-13 conference record has them in last place in the Horizon, but today they honor the seniors in this the final home game. Catching Green Bay just two days after they upended Oakland (as 11.5-pt road dogs) seems advantageous as there's no doubt in my mind which will be the more motivated side here. Lay the points.

The first matchup between these two this season took place all the way back on 12.28. Green Bay won 95-83, but I think it's worth noting they were only 3.5-pt favorites at home. So there has been somewhat of an adjustment from the linesmakers here. The difference in that first meeting was simply the Phoenix taking and making more shots. The number of three-pointers made and FT's attempted were actually identical. But GB had 12 more shot attempts overall and made five more. They also had only nine turnovers compared to 15 for Detroit. None of these things necessarily are likely to repeat themselves, especially w/ the Phoenix now out on the road where they are 1-13 SU this season, allowing 82.1 points per game.

This being the Titans' final home game, there should obviously be some level of motivation present in the locker room. Especially after being blown out here two nights ago. It was a terrible second half, one which they were outscored 40-24. Shooting only 28.6% from the field, over the course of a full game, is hard to do. But the Titans did it Thursday. This is a team that averages over 80 PPG at home, so I expect a massive increase in offensive production this afternoon. This is a team w/ four double digits scorers, mind you. As for Green Bay, they upset Oakland on Thursday due in large part to a career-high 36 pts from Sandy Cohen III. That won't happen again. Nor will the team be able to shoot a collective 57% from the floor again. Something to note from that game is the Phoenix trailed by seven w/ just over four minutes remaining. The win snapped a four-game losing streak as well. 8* Detroit

8* Under Mavs/Lakers (10:35 ET): It was certainly an "interesting" All-Star Break for the Mavs considering their non-descript 1st half to the season would make you think they were one of the least likely candidates to "make noise" during the week off. Of course, said "noise" was not positive as scandal has rocked the front office and owner Mark Cuban has admitted to actively promoting tanking. The Mavs are currently one of four teams in the Western Conference to be tied w/ only 18 wins and while the metrics may suggest they are the "best" of the lot (faint praise, I know!), I'm somewhat afraid the darkest days have yet to hit in "Big D." They open here against a Lakers team that's kind of in a "no-man's land" as the playoffs are not a real possibility, but they're also clearly better than the four 18-win teams.

Two weeks ago these two played and it was a 130-123 win for Dallas. The Mavs' scored at least 30 pts in all four quarters and the Lakers weren't too far behind, scoring 28+. Dirk Nowitzki scored a season-high 22 points in the win. Both teams shot about 54% from the floor and there were 28 total three-pointers made. I would not look for a repeat of that here. Dallas plays at one of the five slowest paces in the league and the Lakers are bottom five in offensive efficiency. When they met in January, the game stayed Under even w/ OT. The totals for those last two matchups were both 213.5. As you can see, the number is substantially higher here.

The Lakers are inconsistent on the defensive end, but still rank in the top half of the league in efficiency. Aside from what happened in the last meeting, Dallas is not a great offensive team. That was obvious in the two games that followed, which saw them score only 97 and 109 pts in losses to Houston and Sacramento. On the road, they barely average over 100 PPG. There could be issues w/ the Lakers offensively as well as Isaiah Thomas is still working his way into the offense and Lonzo Ball may return tonight as well. Those are two players who need the ball in their hands, so it could have an adverse effect on the rest of the team. 8* Under Mavs/Lakers

8* Under Clippers/Suns (9:05 ET): Last night's result has certainly encouraged Over betting for tonight's Clippers tilt. Thursday saw them allow 134 in a loss to the Warriors, but it won't be the two-time champs they're facing tonight, rather it's an opponent at the complete opposite end of the spectrum. Prior to the All-Star Break, Phoenix was making its "case" to be considered the worst team in the sport as they've lost seven in a row and 12 of the last 13. The last five games have seen them outscored by an average of 26.6 points per game. That's landed them at the bottom of my own personal power rankings, but for tonight I'm more interested in the total. This number (which was too high to begin with) has been bet up far too much. Take the Over.

Five times during the seven-game losing streak, the Suns have not even broken 100 pts. On offense, they are 29th in efficiency for the season, so this is a major drop in class for the Clippers' defense, which simply had no answer for the Warriors last night. Steph Curry had 44 pts as the Dubs shot 62.7% as a team and made 14 of 25 three-point attempts. There were also a combined 68 free throws attempted in the game (34 for each side). Most, if not all, of those elements are "non-repeatable" tonight. Phoenix lacks a player like Curry that can "go off" (ok, maybe Devin Booker) and they are shooting just over 40 percent from the field the L5 games. The last time they faced the Clippers, they scored only 95 points on 36.1% shooting.

That last meeting, which took place in December, saw a total of 215. That's substantially lower than what we're getting here. Both meetings this season between these two have stayed Under. Those were both in LA. The L4 meetings in Phoenix have all gone Over, but I expect something different here as the Clips are likely "bushed" after last night's game. I still expect defensive improvement, simply based on the change in opponent, but the offense should decline as well. The Clips have shot 50% or better from the floor each of the last three games and simply are "due" for an off-shooting night. The team is just 1-7 SU in the second night of a back to back this season, averaging only 101.6 points per game. 8* Under Clippers/Suns

8* Iona (9:00 ET): Iona has lost B2B games, both as favorites, and this is their final one at home this season. Therefore, I expect a pretty motivated side here tonight. The line is certainly "curious" here when you consider the Gaels beat Manhattan on a neutral floor back in January and did so, 78-65 as seven-point favorites. Now we're getting the same line at home? Sign me up! Iona can sew up a top four finish in the MAAC w/ a win tonight and third place (one-half game back) is certainly within reach. Finishing top three has its advantages for the postseason tournament as you not only draw a bye (top five teams do), but you also get to face an opponent that had to play a 1st rd game two days earlier. I'll lay the points here.

Manhattan is off a win here, 82-72 over Niagara, but this situation has NOT treated them well most of this season. The Jaspers season has been every bit as mediocre as their record indicates (13-15 SU overall, 8-8 MAAC) as they've only posted B2B wins three times and never won three in a row. Granted, their last three losses have all come by four points or less and they haven't lost a conference game by double digits since 1.5 at Monmouth. But I would not look for a repeat of what the Jaspers were able to do offensively to Niagara on Sunday. While team's last two home games have produced their highest two point totals in conference play, Manhattan still only averages 68.6 PPG for the season and 65.8 PPG on the road.

Iona is a high scoring team that averages 79.5 PPG. Their B2B losses have been by a combined five points. They lost by one to Niagara on Friday despite the Purple Eagles losing second leading scorer Mike Scott to injury. Two days later, Manhattan did not have to worry about defending Scott as he was out. There's a bit of a "hidden edge" for Iona here as they've had two extra days to prepare. Not sure they even need it though as the Gaels were able to down the Jaspers by 13 out in Long Island last month. Iona shot very well in that game (54.5 FG%) and that was before Manhattan lost a key rotational player, Aaron Walker Jr, who has since quit the team. Iona has owned Manhattan the L3 seasons, winning and covering all five meetings. They're better rested and more motivated and this line looks like a steal. 8* Iona 

10* Under T'wolves/Rockets (8:05 ET): There's a lot going on here. Houston went into the Break red hot having won 10 in a row. Even w/ Golden State winning last night, the Rockets remain percentage points ahead of the Warriors for the top spot in the Western Conference. They have a slightly better point differential for the year, thus there needs to be a very real conversation over Houston's chances of making it to the NBA Finals. Tonight, they'll host a good Minnesota team that is currently tied for 3rd (w/ San Antonio). Not only have the T'wolves met their lofty preseason expectations, they've arguably exceeded them. Clearly, the elements for a high-scoring affair are present in this one. But I look at that total and to me, the number screams "too high." Take the Under. 

Prior to the Break, Minnesota's last six games all went Over the total. That, along w/ the opponent, explains why the O/U line is so high tonight. Minnesota's last five games have seen an average of 238 total points per game scored, but that includes a wild OT affair w/ Cleveland that they lost 140-138. For the season, the average number of PPG scored when the T'wolves are involved is closer to 215. Now, up in Minnesota two weeks ago, these teams met and Houston won 126-108. The O/U line for that game wasn't quite as high as it is here. Both teams shot well in that game w/ Houston making 22 of its 47 three-point attempts to boot. I can't see that happening again, especially in the first game back from a long layoff. 

Over its last five games, Houston has allowed an average of just 100.2 PPG. That's better than usual, but not dramatically so. Even for them, this is a pretty high total. Note that in that last meeting, 10 of those 22 three-pointers made came in the 4Q. That's a performance that is unlikely to be repeated. Like the T'wolves, the Rockets' average number of total PPG comes up short of the number tonight. Their games average 219.5 PPG. One thing working in our favor here is Minnesota ranks near the bottom of the league in three-pointers made. They made only six the last game vs. Houston and that's not too much below the season average. Assuming Houston cools off from downtown, this will be a lower scoring game than two weeks ago. 10* Under T'wolves/Rockets

8* Under Clippers/Warriors (10:35 ET): It sure is nice to have the NBA back. Right out the box, we get a TNT doubleheader, the second game featuring the Clippers and Warriors. This had been a big rivalry the last few seasons, but it's taken a considerable hit due to the Dubs' clear superiority. The Clippers looking poised for a rebuild (traded Blake Griffin to Detroit) doesn't help matters either. But I'm not interested in laying double digits w/ anyone in the first game back after such a long break. Nor am I interested in calling for a game to be as high scoring as the oddsmakers are thinking here. Last time these teams met (in January), the O/U line was 218.5. So there's been a sizable adjustment since. Take the Under.

Now there is a good reason for said adjustment and that's the last six meetings between these two have all gone Over. But a 125-106 surprise win by the Clippers on 1.18 would not have gone Over tonight's total. That game saw both teams shoot pretty well, though Golden State did not hit their season-long average of 115.8 points per game. Still, even w/ their games being the highest scoring on average in the league, we're talking about 223.5 PPG, which is well below what the oddsmakers are calling for tonight. At home, it's a slightly less number of points per game, thanks to the defensive end. Golden State never gets enough credit for their work on the defensive end of the floor, by the way. They are #5 currently in defensive efficiency.

Before the All-Star Break, eight of the Clippers' last nine games stayed Under. The lone exception came in the final game where they scored 129 pts on Boston of all opponents. The Celtics are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency, but were definitely having their problems going into the Break. I don't see any such problems for the Warriors here. The Clips are 8-3 Under this season w/ a total north of 220 points and the only game w/ a total of 230+ was against Houston and also stayed Under. After such a long break, don't be surprised if both offenses come out a bit rusty. Granted, several Warriors participated in the All-Star Game, but there's a big difference between that and "real" live NBA competition. Golden State has had "1st Quarter issues" this season in that they've actually fallen behind in 17 of the last 30 games. 8* Under Clippers/Warriors

10* St. Mary's (10:00 ET): Pepperdine has had some success recently, at the pay window only, cashing two in a row as double digit dogs. But the fact remains this is a very bad basketball team, one w/ a 4-24 overall SU record that has yet to win a single time away from home (0-13 SU) and is just 1-15 SU in conference play. Tonight, the Waves find themselves in the unenviable position of having to fact St. Mary's, after just playing at Gonzaga last weekend. Full disclosure, I laid the big number w/ Gonzaga on Saturday and they never really came close to covering the 25-pt spread. However, we're getting some additional value on St. Mary's b/c of that and once again, I'll call for a bad team to get blown out. Lay it!

St. Mary's has seemingly yet to recover from losing to Gonzaga (here at home) earlier this month. The Gaels entered that game w/ an unbeaten home record and unbeaten conference record. Both were blemished by a Zags team that I was on, in a 78-65 "upset." St. Mary's would then go out and lose its next game (at San Francisco), 70-63 as nine-point favorites. They finally got back in the win column last Saturday, winning at Portland by 12 points, but again failed to cover. Starting guard Emmett Naar also left the game because of an ankle injury and did not return. But he's listed as probable to play tonight and I'm not sure the Gaels would even need him given the opposition. 

Pepperdine's lone WCC win came by a single point over ninth place Loyola Marymount (this is a 10-team league). They are very bad defensively, giving up over 80 PPG on the season. As I mentioned in the analysis for the Gonzaga game, they are playing for a lame duck head coach as it's already been announced Marty Wilson will not return next year. Since that announcement, the team has played tough, covering not only against Gonzaga, but also taking BYU into overtime. But playing the top three teams in the league, all in a row, is certainly not desirable. St. Mary's is already outscoring visitors by 16.5 PPG and virtually all of those opponents are better than this one. The Gaels already beat Pepperdine once this year, by 17 on the road, and there's no reason NOT to believe it won't be a larger MOV at home. 10* St. Mary's

8* Stanford (9:00 ET): According to bracketologist Joe Lunardi, Washington is currently among the first four out in the latest projections. That's a precarious place to be, but in my estimation, the Huskies should feel fortunate to even be in that spot as in my own personal power rankings, they're just outside the top 100. That's a few slots behind tonight's opponent, Stanford, who isn't even under any legit NCAA Tournament consideration. This weekend marks the final home games in Palo Alto this season w/ the Cardinal hosting the two Washington schools. A strong finish to the regular season could definitely improve their standing in the upcoming Pac 12 Tourney as a fourth place finish is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. I'll lay the points w/ the better team playing at home here. 

Both teams split their pair of games last week. But the difference is Washington played twice at home while Stanford was on the road for both games. The Huskies lost to Utah last Thursday, 70-58, but then bounced back w/ a big 82-59 win over Colorado. Stanford lost at Colorado on Thursday, but was able to bounce back by beating Cal 77-73 as five-point chalk. Curiously, given Cal's last place standing in the conference, the smart money moved against the Cardinal in that one and proved to be correct for doing so. Stanford is on a three-game ATS losing skid overall, but all three games were on the road. At home, they're 11-5 straight up. 

Adding to the case for Stanford here is the fact they already beat UW up in Seattle last month. It was a 73-64 final where the Cardinal came in as a 4.5-pt underdog. Washington did not shoot well in that game, connecting on only 37.5% overall, including 5 of 22 from three-point range. Normally, there might be an expectation of an improved offensive performance in the rematch, but not on the road. The Huskies' last two road games resulted in a 25-pt loss to Oregon and a loss (in double overtime) to Oregon State. The Oregon loss saw them score only 40 pts in a truly putrid performance. As for Stanford, the last time they were at home, they beat Oregon by 35 points! So homecourt advantage definitely plays a significant role in handicapping this matchup. Stanford has lost only two Pac 12 home games (one vs. Arizona) and those two losses were by a combined five points. 8* Stanford

8* Nevada (10:00 ET): The class of the Mountain West, Nevada, can pretty much "name its score" here as they host the last place team in the conference, that being San Jose State. The Wolfpack have climbed into the the Top 25 (currently #20) thanks to three straights wins and covers. The most recent was Saturday when they won at Utah State, 93-87, shooting 59.3% from the field. I may be a little more skeptical of their chances for success next month, but there are computer systems (such as KenPom) that essentially agree w/ the pollsters. Where there is no debate is the fact they are head and shoulders above the rest of the Mt West. They are 12-2 SU in conference play, outscoring opponents by a healthy margin. Lay the big number here. 

San Jose State, meanwhile, has yet to even win a single conference game this season. They are 0-14 straight up, losing by an average of 14.6 points per game. Keep in mind that the majority of teams in the Mt. West are nowhere near as good as Nevada. In the first meeting of the season, Nevada beat SJSU by 17, 71-54, and that was on the road. The Spartans weren't actually as fortunate to cover as you might think as they even led at the half! However, that game marked (at the time) season lows for Nevada in point scored (24), field goals made (8) and shooting percentage (26.7%) in a half (all in the 1st). There is no basis to claim SJSU is capable of holding Nevada "in check" like that again. Note only one of the Spartans' losses on the conference road this year did not come by double digits. That loss was by nine points at UNLV. 

Nevada is 12-1 SU in Reno this season, its only loss coming at the hands of TCU, who was ranked #20 at the time. Over the last week, they recorded a pair of road wins (over Boise State and Utah State) and both are tough places to play (hence the relatively small MOV). Ranked #11 in the country in offensive efficiency (per KenPom), the Wolfpack average 85.3 points per game at home. San Jose State is already giving up more than 80 PPG in conference play coming into tonight. So I expect the Wolfpack to "blow by" the 71 pts they scored in the first meeting. San Jose State is 1-12 SU on the road this year (-13.5 PPG). Nevada has covered 28 of its last 42 home games. 8* Nevada

10* Pittsburgh (9:00 ET): This season has been a complete disaster for once powerful Pitt. Not only are they 8-20 SU overall, but they're also winless in ACC play (0-15 SU!). Things have gotten really dire recently w/ six consecutive double digits losses, four of those coming by at least 23 points. Tonight, they host the second worst team in the conference in what is their last realistic shot at achieving a conference victory in 2018. Now, we do know the Panthers are significantly worse than the field in the ACC. But are they this much worse than Wake Forest? I don't think so. The Demon Deacons, just 2-7 SU in "true" road games this year, being favored by this many away from home is pretty much unprecedented. Take the points.

Wake has won only three ACC games this season and all were in Winston-Salem. The most recent came last week, 79-62 over Georgia Tech, who is third from the bottom in the league. The Demon Deacons then resumed their losing ways on Saturday as they fell to NC State (as a favorite?!), 90-84, and trailed by double digits for much of the second half. Given the line (-2.5), obviously it was a home game. The road, particularly the conference road, has been quite unkind this season. They are 0-7 SU in ACC road games and while only two of those losses have come by double digits (Duke, Louisville), it's a whole different dynamic w/ the Demon Deacons being favored here. This is a team being outscored by almost six points per game in conference play and they're favored on the road, prohibitively so. Not sure I've ever seen such a thing.

Now obviously, there's not a whole lot of positive spin for Pitt here. Their last win occurred all the way back on 12.22 against Towson. However, I will point out they are at least a respectable 7-9 SU at home, which is where all but one of their wins this season have come. Defensively, they've been a lot better here. The Panthers showed some fight over the weekend against Florida State, even leading at the half (on the road!). But they couldn't overcome a foul trouble and a corresponding disparity at the FT line where the Seminoles had 18 more attempts. Make no mistake about it - this is a play AGAINST WF, who simply should not be favored by this many on the road, no matter the opponent. 10* Pittsburgh

8* LaSalle (7:00 ET): Going into Friday, Rhode Island had the nation's longest win streak and was one of two teams in the country that could still claim to having a perfect (SU) conference record. Well, both of those things are no more after losing to St. Bonaventure, 77-74 as two-point favorites. Tonight is a tricky spot as they're a road fave for a second straight game and laying a pretty big number to boot. LaSalle has certainly had its fair share of struggles at the pay window this season (8-16-2 ATS overall), particularly of late as they've failed to cover 11 of their previous 12 games. But there's no denying the Explorers will be "up" for their biggest A-10 home game of the season. I'm taking the points as URI is primed for a letdown.

Before facing the Bonnies, Rhode Island had won 16 in a row. They remain ranked this week, at #18, but I think that's far too high as this isn't even one of the top 25 teams in the country (my opinion). They lost to St. Bonaventure despite holding them to 38.1% shooting. The A-10 is very weak this year as the only way it gets multiple bids in the NCAA Tournament is if someone besides URI wins the conference tourney. The Rams did beat LaSalle last month, but pushed as 12-pt favorites (won 74-62). Looking at that line for the first matchup, it's clear that the oddsmakers have adjusted. But why? It's not as if LaSalle was blown out the first time. I can only suspect that it's because the Rams are off a loss, and thus there's an anticipation of a "bounce back." But that's no guarantee.

There's also a key factor worth noting from that first matchup. LaSalle was w/o the A-10's leading scorer B.J. Johnson. He's been back for the L10 games and averaged 18.9 PPG. He's been in double figures all 10 games. For the year, Johnson averages 20.5 points and 8.0 rebounds per game. So his absence was definitely key to the Explorers losing by 12 in that first meeting. Since his return, the team is 4-1 SU at home. All four Rhode Island losses this season have come out on the road. Though they did not cover Saturday, LaSalle did win SU on Saturday, 69-62 over George Mason. They did have to rally from a 13-pt halftime deficit as GMU shot better than 60% in the 1H. Still, being able to win (by seven!) despite all that is impressive. 8* LaSalle.

10* Texas A&M (7:00 ET): There's definitely been a bit of a "fall from grace" for A&M since SEC play began as the team is just 6-8 SU in games played in 2018. They are coming off B2B losses, both on the road, as short dogs to Missouri and Arkansas. Yet, they are still considered as a "safe bet" for the Big Dance next month and digging through the numbers, it's easy to see why. First off, they remain in the top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency. That's something that can carry a team a long way in March. Secondly, there's a good chance they could be favored in each of their four remaining games. So even though they are an ugly NINTH in the SEC right now, look for that to improve by the end of the regular season. Lay the points here.

On Tuesday, it will be Mississippi State that comes calling to College Station. The Bulldogs just whacked rival Ole Miss on Saturday, 79-62 as 7.5-pt favorites, for their seventh consecutive cover. However, it hasn't exactly been the most challenging SEC gauntlet for them. They've avoided Auburn, Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky and Arkansas, who collectively I believe are the top five teams in the conference. A&M would be 6th for me. Note that just one game separates third from eighth place in this league right now. Note that the win over Ole Miss did not come w/o some attrition. Aric Holman, one of the Bulldogs' three double digit scorers, injured his leg and is questionable to play tonight. His absence here would be significant.

Given A&M's defensive prowess, don't look for MSU to come anywhere close to shooting 56.4% like it did vs. Ole Miss. Visitors to College Station are shooting only 38.0% from the field this season. While they're 17-1 SU in Starkville, Mississippi State is only 2-7 SU otherwise (road/neutral site games) w/ one of those two wins coming at a neutral setting. A&M is outscoring opponents by 13.8 PPG at home so far. Saturday's loss at Arkansas was arguably the worst showing by the Aggies all season and something they'll be eager to bounce back from. Something else to note about A&M is that they are third in the country (1st in SEC) in rebounding margin. This is a team that won at Auburn less than two weeks ago and also beat Kentucky by 11 on this floor. They're simply a much better team than MSU. 10* Texas A&M

8* Akron (7:00 ET): We haven't checked in on the MAC much this season, but a quick glance at the standings reveals both divisions are essentially "sewn up" w/ Buffalo taking the East and Toledo likely to do the same in the West. Only one other team is above .500 in conference play and that's Ball State. So for Akron and Bowling Green, the only goal at this point is to win next month's conference tournament in Cleveland. Akron would also like a repeat of what they did to BG back on January 13th at the James A. Rhodes Arena and that's win. It was an 80-78 victory as 3.5-pt favorites. Curious that despite the non-cover, we've seen the line adjusted so much. As I'll get into, that has a lot to do w/ recent ATS performance, which we can exploit here. Take the points. 

Akron has won just one of its last seven games. They're also 1-5 ATS L6. But they also came into that 1st matchup w/ Bowling Green on a three-game losing streak. Overall, the Zips have really had the Falcons number, taking 26 of the last 28 meetings. This is considered a real "down year" in LeBron's hometown as this team is used to competing for MAC Championships. Saturday's 78-68 loss to rival Kent State was perhaps the most disappointing result of the year as the Zips shot just 39.1% from the floor and lost to a team that had dropped its four previous games. Incredibly, Akron has not won a single time away from home this season (0-12!), including 0-9 in "true" road games. But tonight they'll be facing a team that gives up plenty of points and is unaccustomed to the role of favorite. 

Bowling Green enters this game on a six-game ATS win streak. But they did lose Saturday, 95-82 to Buffalo (covered as 14-pt dogs). They trailed by as many as 17 in the 1H and had no answer for the Bulls defensively. Buffalo shot 60 percent from three-point range (12 of 20), essentially giving the Falcons little chance to catch up. Bowling Green is giving up 77.4 points per game this year, which is a lot (221st in points allowed), and it's worth noting that the only time they were favored in this 6-0 ATS stretch saw them -1 against Kent State. Overall, this will be just the fourth time that they are favored in MAC play this season and sixth time overall. After scoring 80+ pts the previous game, they are 1-4 ATS this season. 8* Akron

8* Oklahoma (9:00 ET): I think many of us knew that regression was coming for Oklahoma, we just didn't think it would be quite this severe. The Sooners lost their fifth consecutive game on Saturday, falling in Norman to rival Texas by a score of 77-66. It was their third time losing as a favorite during the streak. Even worse is OU has now failed to cover the spread in seven consecutive games and is also 1-10 ATS its L11! All this sounds very bad as they head to Allen Fieldhouse on Monday, a place where they have not won at since 1993 when both schools were still apart of the Big 8 conference. The losing streak currently stands at 16 and counting. Not sure if OU can "right the ship" and win straight up here, but I do like them plus the points. 

One reason to like OU plus the points here is they already beat Kansas this year. Just last month, it was 85-80 in their favor down in Norman. Led by sensational freshman Trae Young's 26 points, they were able to rally back for the victory (trailed by as many as eight in the 2H). But there was also a strategy employed by HC Lon Krueger, reminiscent of the "hack a (insert poor free throw shooter's name here)" that we sometimes see in the NBA. It was done to Kansas' Udoka Azubuike, who ended up missing 7 of 8 FT's. Azubuike was much better from the charity stripe Saturday vs. WVU (also led the team w/ 21 pts), so it will be interesting to see how Krueger handles him tonight. One thing is for sure though and that's Young needs to get back on track. While he still leads the nation in scoring (29.1 PPG) and assists (9.3 per game), he's gone just 10 of 51 from three-point range the L5 games. I "smell" a bounce back. 

Kansas was very fortunate to get by West Virginia here on Saturday. The Jayhawks benefited from an almost unheard of 35-2 advantage in free throw attempts in an eight-point win. Unlike years' past, the Jayhawks have not been infallable here in Lawrence, already losing three times, including once to Oklahoma State. It's been almost exactly one month since KU won three in a row and they are 2-7 ATS this year off a Big 12 victory. The FT disparity they enjoyed vs. WVU was their largest EVER in a Big 12 game. They trailed that game by as many as 12 in the 2H and did not pull ahead by enough to cover (which they ended up doing) until the final minute of the game. 8* Oklahoma

10* Northern Kentucky (7:30 ET): Northern Kentucky figures to be in an ornery mood tonight when they hit the court for their final home game of the regular season. That's because the Norse, 19-8 SU on the season and co-leaders in the Horizon League, are off a two-point loss at Wright State on Friday. That result is what has those two teams tied atop the Horizon, each 12-3 SU in league play. Tonight's opponent - Youngstown State - is NOT in the mix for the regular season crown, in fact the Penguins are just 6-10 SU in league play and 8-21 SU overall. These teams met on the first of the month and while NKU won 95-85, they actually failed to cover as 11-pt road chalk. Still, that line suggests the number for tonight's home date should be a lot higher. Lay the points.

Northern Kentucky had won five in a row heading into the Wright State game. The final result is made even more disappointing by the fact Wright State also won the first meeting here in Highland Heights. For the season, that's one of only two home losses for the Norse, who now must deal w/ the fact they lose the tiebreak to Wright State. They are outscoring teams by an impressive 21.4 PPG here at home and when you couple that w/ Youngstown State's poor road mark, then the potential for a blowout is obviously there. YSU gives up a frightening number of points per game on the road (86.7!) w/ opponents shooting 52.4% against them. I see this as a clear "get well" spot for the home side. 

Playing its final home game when off a loss should be all the motivation the Norse need this evening. Then you throw in the fact the opponent is not a good team and that's why I'm willing to lay the big number here. Youngstown State is just 2-16 SU away from home this year while being outscored by roughly 16 PPG. That's against mostly inferior competition than what they'll face tonight. Friday saw the Penguins lose by 10 at home to Detroit, the last place team in the Horizon League. That snapped a two-game win streak, however, the Penguins have still allowed 80+ pts in six of the last seven games w/ three teams going over 90. Northern Kentucky holds teams to 38.1% shooting here at home. 10* Northern Kentucky

10* Purdue (8:00 ET): What on Earth has happened to the Boilermakers? It seems as if it wasn't even two weeks ago that they were considered among the consensus top three teams in America (alongside Villanova and Virginia) and poised to - easily - earn a top seed in next month's NCAA Tournament. But, suddenly and shockingly, they've dropped three in a row. Last week, they lost to Ohio State and Michigan State (the other top of the top three in the Big 10) by a combined four points. That was somewhat excusable even though the loss to OSU was at home and saw the Boilers blow a 14-pt second half advantage. But I was shocked to see them lose at Wisconsin on Thursday as 11-pt favorites. After all, this is the same team that had won 19 in a row prior to the current three-game skid. I'm still willing to lay the points in this spot.

While Purdue is looking to rebound tonight, Penn State is going to be avoiding any kind of letdown following a shockingly brilliant performance at home Thursday against Ohio State. The beat the Buckeyes 79-56 (were -1.5), completing a season sweep, and keep in mind those are the Buckeyes' only two Big 10 losses this season. Overall, the Nittany Lions have now won four in a row as they try and make their case that they belong among the field of 68 next month. As of right now, they still are not considered a safe bet to make it. A win here over Purdue would certainly go along way in changing that, but easier said than done. Ohio State is the lone ranked team PSU has defeated this season (non-conf schedule was weak) and Purdue is 14-1 SU at home, winning by an average margin of almost 25 PPG. 

I simply can't see Purdue losing a fourth straight game, nor at home again. This is clearly still a Top 5 team in America and I think they are #2 (behind only Villanova). They and Michigan State are the only two teams in the country to rank in the top 10 nationally in offensive and defensive efficiency (per KenPom). In fact, Gonzaga is the only other team to rank in the top 20 in both. Penn State has not won a game here in West Lafayette since 2006. Once again on Thursday, the Boilermakers blew a 2H lead (led Wisconsin by 7). They easily could have won all three games during the losing streak. They take their frustrations out here on the Nittany Lions. 10* Purdue

8* Illinois (3:30 ET): Back on January 15th, Illinois lost a one-point game in Lincoln, NE (64-63), but still managed to cover the spread as four-point dogs. Fast forward to the present and Nebraska has covered in every game since, going an impressive 8-0 ATS. In fact, the Cornhuskers have one of the best ATS records in the country right now as they are 20-6 overall at the pay window, including covers in 16 of their last 17 lined contests. Still though, they are NOT considered a NCAA Tournament team. By Big 10 standards, they've faced a relatively lackluster schedule w/ a 20-pt home win over Michigan being the exception to the rule. They are 0-4 SU against Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State and Penn State, all of those losses coming on the road. 

Now Illinois most definitely is nowhere close to the upper echelon of the Big 10. As a matter of fact, they're in last place w/ a 2-12 SU conference record. Wednesday saw them suffer a fourth consecutive loss, 78-68 at Indiana, as the Hoosiers shot a ridiculous 59.1% from the floor. Poor three-point shooting certainly didn't help as the Illini went 1 for 12 from behind the arc. Also, they were just 20 of 30 from the free throw line. The 25 pts scored in the 1st half were a season-low, but the key number here is 75 as Illinois has not won a game all season when giving up that many points. Fortunate for them, Nebraska averages "only" 68.9 PPG on the road where they've been outscored for the season. The Illini are a somewhat surprising 11-5 SU at home and average 81.2 PPG here. 

In that first meeting, Illinois again shot poorly, making only 39.0% of its total shots, including 3 of 18 from three-point range. Yet they still only lost by one on the road. Seven of Nebraska's previous 11 games have been decided by six points or fewer, with five of those being wins, so the record really could look a lot different coming into this one. I happen to agree w/ the "experts" that this is NOT a Tourney team and its worth noting that more often than not, the Cornhuskers have been an underdog in Big 10 play. The current six-game win streak is their longest of the season and I see the "bubble bursting" (not necessarily permanently) today in what looks to be a tricky spot. This is Illinois' second to last home game and their best shot at a win (Purdue is final home game). 8* Illinois 

8* Tulsa (3:00 ET): Something that we need to get "out on the table" right away here is that USF is not a good team. The Bulls have dropped six straight and 13 of 14 overall here in conference play. That obviously has them in last place in the American and really there's no "light at the end of the tunnel" here. Back on Wednesday, they lost by 15 at UCF as the numbers continue to get uglier and uglier. This afternoon, they visit a Tulsa team that already beat them once this year - by nine points - despite shooting only 29.1% for the game! I can't remember the last time I saw a team shoot below 30% from the field and win. The Golden Hurricane not only won that Feb 4th meeting, they also covered as 7.5-pt road chalk. Now that they're the home team, I'm not sure as to why they're not favored by more. Lay the points.

There's a clear top three in the American (Cincinnati, Wichita St, Houston) and really a top two (sans Houston), if you want to be frank about it. But Tulsa is streaking its way into the fourth position thanks to a four-game win streak. That includes the win in Tampa two weeks ago, which has been followed up w/ a pair of two-point victories. Thursday, they upset UConn - in Storrs - as three-point road underdogs. That game saw the Golden Hurricane hit 11 three-pointers and shoot 55.3% overall from the field. Sterling Taplin led the way w/ a career-best 30 points. Despite not winning the rebounding battle against UConn (surprising), Tulsa is still +11.3 rebounds/game compared to its last three opponents. They were able to rally back from a nine-point halftime deficit as they swept UConn for the 1st time ever.

Now USF must contend w/ the fact Tulsa is a very good home team. The Golden Hurricane have covered 25 of their last 36 here at the Donald W. Reynolds Center and are 10-2 SU here this season, averaging 81.2 PPG. Meanwhile, USF is bad no matter where they play. They are being outscored by roughly 17 PPG by conference opponents and the road has been particularly unkind this year w/ a 2-9 SU record that has seen them get outscored by 17.3 PPG. This spread being several points under that average makes little sense to me as the Bulls are being outshot this season by an incredible margin and I project that to continue here. 8* Tulsa

8* Gonzaga (8:00 ET): Laying a number this large can potentially be pretty dangerous especially when you consider Gonzaga has NOT been very good at the pay window of late. To be fair though, a lot of that has to do w/ the fact that the WCC schedule - more often than not - isn't going to inspire them to the degree that the oddsmakers are calling for. At one point, they failed to cover eight consecutive games (but lost only one of them). However, I took them last Saturday in what was the biggest game of the year, a revenge spot at St. Mary's. They won there, 78-65, then followed that up w/ a 30-pt win Thursday vs. Loyola Marymount. I'm looking for them to make it B2B 30-pt wins now as Pepperdine is just terrible. Lay the points. 

Obviously, Gonzaga and St. Mary's are the class of the WCC. BYU has been a solid addition to the conference as well. After that, well, Gonzaga really doesn't lose to anybody else. Pepperdine is in last place in the WCC w/ a 1-14 SU record. The Waves come in at just 4-23 SU overall. The first time these teams met this year saw Gonzaga win by 30 on the road and they were "only" 24-pt favorites in that one. Using that as our baseline, this spread should pretty clearly be north of 30 pts. Over the previous 44 meetings, Gonzaga is 40-4 SU vs. Pepperdine, also going 30-12-2 ATS. That includes a 19-1 SU and 15-5 ATS record at home. Each of the last three meetings have been decided by at least 30 points. 

Making matters more challenging for Pepperdine is that they are playing for a lame-duck head coach. It's already been announced Marty Wilson will not return next season, so I don't exactly see a lot of effort forthcoming. Yes, the team did play inspired at home against BYU on Thursday. Their last three losses have all been by six points or less. But once the inspiration runs out, there's little left here. The Waves' lone WCC win came by a single point. They shot a respectable 44.8% the first time against Gonzaga and still lost by 30. Gonzaga has held its last five opponents to 58.2 points per game on 37.5% shooting. They jumped out to a 17-0 lead on Loyola Marymount Thursday w/ all five starters scoring before any LMU player scored. This is a complete mismatch in every sense of the word. 8* Gonzaga 

8* Hofstra (4:00 ET): We head down to the Colonial here, a conference which has lost much of its luster since the halcyon days of George Mason and VCU (both of whom bolted for the greener pastures of the Atlantic 10). Right now, it looks to be a two-team race between Charleston and Northeastern for the regular season crown, but don't count out a Hofstra squad that is lurking in the shadows and only a few games back. The Pride pulled into a third place tie w/ William & Mary by virtue of beating the Tribe on Thursday and scored 90 pts in the process. While they "only" won by six (were -4.5), Hofstra led by as many as 17 in the 1st half. It was the 2nd time in February that Hofstra scored at least 90 pts in a game. Lay the points.

Hofstra has shown they can beat teams in a variety of ways as not only have they twice scored 90 this month, but there's also been two recent wins where they held the opposition under 60 points. Given Drexel's defensive liabilities, I figure the Hofstra offense will again carry the load here. The Pride have a variety of scoring options as leading scorer Justin Wright-Foreman (24.3 PPG) owns the nation's fourth longest streak of finishing w/ 10 or more points (49 straight games), but he was one of only three players to finish in double figures vs. W&M. Rokas Gustys going for 22 points and 21 rebounds, his 12th double double of the season and 46th of his career, I haven't even mentioned Eli Pemberton yet. He went for 17 pts against W&M and averages 16.1 per game, second most on the team.

The recent schedule has been unkind to Drexel as the Dragons have had to play at both Northeastern and Charleston in the last seven days. This game makes it three straight on the road against the top teams in the CAA. I mentioned earlier that Drexel is not very good defensively. They allow 78.9 PPG for the year and in conference play that number has jumped to an unsightly 83.3 PPG. Not good news considering Hofstra averages 85.0 PPG at home. The Dragons even shot the ball well Thursday against Northeastern (52.9%) and still lost. Not a good sign here. They lost the first meeting (at home) to Hofstra as 2.5-pt home dogs, giving up 91 pts in the process. Not only is this their third road game in a week, but the game prior to that was an OT affair. Look for the tired Dragons to get blown out. 8* Hofstra

8* Florida Atlantic (2:00 ET): With Lane Kiffin on board, FAU is most definitely a "football school" for the forseeable future, but the Owls' hoops team has a big game today against rival FIU. These teams opened the Sun Belt campaign against one another (back on 12.30) and it was Florida International emerging victorious, by a single point, 58-57. But FAU escaped w/ the cover as 1.5-pt dogs. There were more lead changes than one could count over the course of the game and it easily could have gone either way. Interestingly, at the time, FAU had lost three in a row and would go on to lose six straight. They come into today's game on a four-game losing streak. But I still like them to exact revenge as a short home favorite. 

Interesting to note that these two rivals have played the same eight opponents over their last eight respective games. FAU has gone 2-6 SU and ATS while FIU is 3-5 SU, but 6-1-1 ATS. That would seem to favor taking the Panthers, who are also already 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season and 22-9 ATS their L31 road games. They've had a full week to prepare here, but this will also be their third consecutive road game after losing at both Marshall and Western Kentucky last week. Note though that WKU was w/o its star center Dwight Coleby most of the way, which was not the case when the Hilltoppers downed FAU earlier in the week. FIU has only two "true" road wins in nine tries this year. A big reason for the positive ATS record is they are almost always getting more than 4.5 points.

Neither of the teams shoot the ball particularly well, but at least the Owls jump up over 45% from the field here in Boca Raton. As a result, their scoring average increases to a reasonable 73.8 PPG, up from 65.0 PPG on the road. They shot only 34% against Marshall last Saturday, yet still were tied 55-55 midway through the second half. Like FIU, the Owls have had a full week to prepare here. I simply happen to believe FAU is the better team here, before even factoring in the home court edge, and that makes them a bit of a bargain at the current price. 8* Florida Atlantic

10* Miami FL (12:00 ET): Other than the B2B losses, I have no idea why the Hurricanes would be getting "little more" than the token number for homecourt advantage in this ACC matchup. They are clearly superior to Syracuse in my eyes as right now they "should" be a top six or seven seed in the NCAA Tournament while the Orange are on the fringes of the cut. Syracuse is off a loss as well, 74-70 to NC State, as six-point favorites in the Carrier Dome. As much as they "need" this game, it's not as if Miami couldn't stand to build its resume as well. Playing in Coral Gables and coming off B2B defeats will have the Hurricanes quite motivated Saturday afternoon and I'll lay the short number here as I worry about Syracuse offensively.

Miami lost last Saturday to Boston College, by two points, on the road. That's certainly not a "good" loss, but take note they did lead by seven late in the 2H before missing their final nine shots. They also played the game w/o HC Jim Larranaga (sick), which I'm sure had an effect on their late-game execution. The poor shooting then carried over into Tuesday's home date w/ Virginia as they never led and made only 38.3% of their field goals in a 59-50 loss. But given the opponent, that isn't a total shock. Here, they face a Syracuse that is also in the top 13 in defensive efficiency (Virginia #1), but note the 'Canes aren't chopped liver on that end of the floor either as they rank 20th in defensive efficiency (per KenPom). They held Virginia to 59 pts and are 8-2 SU this season after allowing 60 pts or less their previous game. They are also a perfect 4-0 SU after scoring 60 or less.

Syracuse is notorious for not playing any "true" road games in the non-conference under Jim Boeheim. (They did travel to face old Big East foe Georgetown this year). They've gone just 2-4 SU on the ACC road so far this season and while all of those games have been close, recent performances suggest they simply aren't going to be able to stay within the number here. For starters, they lost at home to Virginia by 15 pts. Also, last time out (vs. NC State) was just the third all season that they shot better than 50 percent from the floor, and they still lost. Miami allows just 63.4 PPG at home where they've lost only twice and that was to two top five teams (Duke, Virginia). 10* Miami FL 

10* Georgia State (9:00 ET): Tonight, it's the "Battle of Georgia" down in the "Fun Belt" where everyone is chasing 1st place Louisiana. The only team within realistic striking distance of the Ragin Cajuns would be Georgia State, who is 10-3 SU in league play (and two games back). Everyone else has seven or fewer wins w/ Georgia Southern being one of the many in a logjam of 7-6 and 7-7 squads. The Eagles host tonight, looking to avenge a 17-pt loss to the Panthers that they suffered last month. For that initial meeting, Georgia State was a 6.5-pt favorite and used a big 2nd half run for the win and cover. They shot better than 50% in Atlanta while Ga Southern shot only 33.8%. Will it be that easy in the second go-around? Probably not. But Georgia State is the better team and I'm taking them. 

Now perhaps Georgia State got caught "looking ahead" to this rivalry game as last Saturday saw them get upset (as 13.5-pt chalk) by Louisiana Monroe, 90-82. Or perhaps it was a letdown considering the Panthers were less than 48 hours removed from handing Louisiana its first and only conference loss of the season. Incredibly, the Panthers scored 106 (in regulation!) in the upset of the Rajun Cajuns. Not a ton of defense is played in the Sun Belt, but note it was an OVERTIME loss to La Monroe on Saturday. It was certainly a disappointing loss for Georgia State's perspective as not only did it snap a 10-game win streak, but they had battled back from a 16-pt second half deficit as well. While defense is sometimes optional in this conference, note Georgia State is pretty good at it (putting aside the L2 games), even on the road. They are giving up only 63.5 PPG away from home, which has translated into a 10-3 ATS record.

Georgia Southern comes in off three consecutive losses, so they're not in good form right now. Their latest loss came Saturday as they were in the unfortunate spot of having to face Louisiana right after Georgia State beat them. Still, giving up 100+ pts on your home floor is not a "good look." Overall, the Eagles have now dropped five of seven, beginning w/ the loss to Georgia State. Though they are 0-5 SU and ATS their last five visits into Statesboro, I like GSU to get the job done tonight. They simply can't afford another loss if they want to keep pace w/ Louisiana. Every other Sun Belt squad, Georgia Southern included, just needs to be thinking about the conference tournament at this point. 10* Georgia State

8* Under Lakers/T'wolves (9:05 ET): A high total was to be expected here considering Minnesota has gone Over in five straight while the Lakers have been gashed for 130+ pts in each of the last two games (obviously both Overs as well). But we've now reached a point where I believe there's value to be had on the Under in this final game before the All-Star Break. Yes, Minnesota's offensive/defensive splits have led them to going Over more than Under this season. But before the current streak began, that record was essentially dead even. Their games, while typically high scoring, average "only" 216.3 total points per game. Same for the Lakers, whose total PPG average is 217.3. Take the Under. 

Defensively, the Lakers were a disaster last season (worst efficiency in the league). At times, that's reared its ugly head again this year, particularly in the losses. However, generally speaking, Luke Walton has them playing better at that end of the floor this year. They rank in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency even after what's happened the last two games. Both New Orleans and Dallas shot better than 53% from the floor and combined to make 26 three-pointers. But that came on the heels of two stellar defensive efforts, one against Phoenix and the other against OKC. In those games, the Lakers allowed FG%'s below 39.0 and neither opponent shot well from three-point range. One good thing here is Minnesota is second to last in the league in three-pointers made on a per gaem basis w/ 7.9. The Lakers aren't world-beaters in that department either, ranking 23rd. 

Incredibly, the Over has gone 23-5 in the T'wolves last 28 February games. They are coming off a matchup w/ the Rockets (lost 126-108), so no surprise that was a high-scoring game. Giving up 42 fourth quarter points is what killed the T'wolves there. But that won't be an issue here. The last five games have also seen Minnesota average over 117 PPG. They average 109.6 PPG for the year. They've also given up an average of 118.6, which is well above their season average and especially what they give up per game at home (104.2). Despite recent form, I look for this game to be lower scoring than expected. 8* Under Lakers/T'wolves

10* Arizona (9:00 ET): I'd like to think that I was pretty early on the "sell Arizona State train." Numerous metrics suggested that regression was on the horizon for the Sun Devils when they started the year 12-0 straight up (10-1-1 ATS). Sure enough, that regression has taken hold as they team has gone just 7-6 SU since, all of those conference games. But the Pac 12 isn't a particularly deep league this season, which has allowed ASU to stay in the thick of things. As of today, they are still considered a NCAA Tournament team, but that's "faint praise" for a squad that once found itself listed as a potential top seed (ridiculous!). Tonight brings a matchup w/ the best team in the conference, Arizona, and that means another loss for the Sun Devils. 

These rivals have met once before this season, the conference opener in fact, and Arizona won 84-78 (-6) handing ASU its very first loss of the season. The Sun Devils come into the rematch on a three-game win streak, the last two coming here in Tempe. But last week was the first time the Sun Devils swept their schedule since conference play began and they hadn't even won B2B Pac 12 games before the current streak began. They have lost five in a row to Arizona, going 0-4-1 ATS as well. Ranking 14th nationally in offensive efficiency is nice, but it largely won't matter when paired w/ a #97 ranking on the other end of the floor. Arizona State shot only 37.9% from the floor in the first meeting, thanks in large part to Deandre Ayton, who is in the running to be the #1 overall pick in the NBA Draft in June. 

Arizona had dropped B2B games (Washington, UCLA) before beating USC at home on Saturday. They opened conference play at 9-1 SU, so I'll chalk the losses up to a little "mid-season blues." The Wildcats shot 56.1% against USC as they too can light it up (rank 8th in offensive efficiency). Truth be told, I'm not going to be a big believer in either of the teams come March, but as far as the Pac 12 is considered, Arizona is still king, Something else to consider is that they have been a favorite in every game this year dating back to December 5th's victory vs. Texas A&M. So this is a really good price as well. Arizona State is 4-15 ATS off its previous 19 conference wins. 10* Arizona

8* Ohio State (8:00 ET): The 8th ranked Buckeyes (#9 in Coaches Poll) have definitely made the Big 10 more than just a two-team race between Purdue and Michigan State. In fact, they come into tonight leading the conference at 13-1 SU! That one loss is what they'll be looking to avenge this evening as they visit Penn State. The loss occurred in Columbus, ironically enough, 82-79 back on January 25th. OSU was 10-pt favorites for that game, so there's definitely been an adjustment by the linesmakers. But should there be? That game was decided at the buzzer and saw Penn State shoot preposterously well for the game. We're talking 58.3 percent overall from the field, including 11 of 14 from three-point range. That won't be happening again.

Going back to the win over Ohio State, the Nittany Lions have now won five of six w/ the lone loss coming at Michigan State. Still though, they are NOT considered a NCAA Tournament team as the win over the Buckeyes should be considered a "season highlight." They're only 3-5 SU in Big 10 play otherwise including losses to Minnesota and Northwestern. Recent wins have largely come at the expense of the bottom of the league, most recently a 74-52 win over a terrible Illinois team on Sunday. They outscored the Illini 37-16 in the 2nd half on another hot shooting night (54.5 FG%).

Not sure homecourt advantage can save the Nittany Lions here as Ohio State has won all five "true" road games this season, doing so by an impressive average of 13.0 PPG. They even won at Purdue in a very impressive comeback. They're 5-0 ATS in those games as well. Revenge can be often overrated, but not here when you're talking about avenging your lone conference defeat. The Buckeyes rank 12th in the country in defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and are clearly a "legit" squad. I was certainly not in universal agreement w/ the committee's top 16 teams (revealed Sunday), but Ohio State was an obvious inclusion that everyone would have to agree with. Kam Williams will also be back in the lineup here after being suspended the L3 games. Not that the team needed him in those three games as they won all of them. 8* Ohio State

10* Boise State (11:00 ET): I'll use a seemingly unrelated result to open the discussion of this Wednesday night Mountain West matchup and that's UNC Greensboro's 74-56 win over East Tennessee State on Monday. That matchup saw a conference (Southern) favorite actually come in as a slight dog despite an unbeaten SoCon record (not to mention the nation's longest active win streak). Well, it's something similar here as Nevada (10-2 in Mt West play) is an underdog for the first time all year to a conference opponent, that being Boise State. While not unbeaten in conference play like ETSU was, the Wolfpack are the perceived "best team by a mile" here in the MWC. But the oddsmakers obviously think otherwise. 

In fact, despite perception, at the end of the day today Boise State may very well find itself in first place in the MWC. They are a half game back w/ a 10-3 SU conference record (compared to Nevada's 10-2). Boise State is 20-5 SU overall. Nevada is 21-5 SU overall. This is a revenge game for the Broncos as they lost by six down in Reno last month. That game saw them go a miserable 3 for 21 from the three-point line. Perhaps they got caught looking ahead to this game b/c on Saturday they lost at Utah State, 71-65 as three-point chalk. They were outscored 44-31 in the second half. Pretty incredible is the fact that 9 out of Boise State's last 10 games were decided by six points or fewer.

The big key here though is where this game is being played. Boise State is 13-0 SU at home this season and averaging 85.5 PPG here. Their average margin of victory is 19 PPG. They've never been a home dog all year and even w/ all the close games, they've yet to drop B2B games at any point this season. Being at home and off a loss, facing the top team in the conference, I expect the Broncos to come up huge here. 10* Boise State

8* Orlando (7:05 ET): The Magic were certainly kind to me last week as they hosted (what was at the time) a decaying Cleveland team and took the game outright by 18 points (were 7-pt home dogs). Given the respect LeBron carries in the marketplace, it sure seems odd to see Charlotte near the same price range as they enter Orlando tonight. This Magic team, while still a work in progress, has covered 12 of its past 15 games, showing it is undervalued. The Hornets on the other hand, have failed to cover five straight, the last four of those coming as underdogs. So, again, they sure make for a curious road favorite. They're a team I've tried to stump for in the past, but no more and definitely not here as they are 8-18 SU/8-15-3 ATS on the road this season. Take the points. 

Charlotte's biggest problem has been an inability to win close games. This isn't the first time I've talked about this and the issue dates back to last season. They're now 0-14 SU since the start of last season in games decided by three points or less. This hardly makes them an ideal candidate for the role of road favorite. Even the confines of their own homecourt couldn't help them on Sunday as they were blown out by Toronto, 123-103. It is not w/o precedent that the Hornets would be favored on the road. Just 10 days ago, they started a four-game West Coast swing w/ a stop in Phoenix and they were asked to lay 6.5. They won 115-110. Another issue here is their defense, or rather lack of it. They've allowed 113.8 PPG during the ATS losing skid while opponents have shot 52.8%. 

Charlotte has had Orlando's number in the past, beating their division rival nine straight times (8-1 ATS), including a pair of wins early this season. But the Magic have been competitive of late, going 6-7 SU the L13 games and only one of those seven losses has been by double digits. They fought their way back from an 18-pt deficit to almost beat Chicago (lost by four) on Monday. I've been impressed by the improved efforts on the defensive end and right now they're simply playing better than Charlotte. To me, this is a pick 'em type game, so taking the points is a "no brainer." 8* Orlando

8* Davidson (7:00 ET): The A-10 "ain't what it used to be" w/ everyone chasing Rhode Island (who is unbeaten in conference play) and likely needing to win the Conference Tourney just to get into the Big Dance. Here's two teams that have made "NCAA Tourney noise" in the past, albeit some of it when hailing from another league. But this year, both VCU and Davidson are simply fighting to stay relevant. Davidson has a game in hand and can move into a second place tie (w/ St Bonaventure) w/ a win here tonight. They just lost at Rhode Island on Friday, 72-59, but at least had an additional day to prepare here, plus VCU had to go into overtime Saturday to beat Dayton. I'll lay the points. 

Prior to losing to URI on Friday, Davidson had been gaining steam. They'd won three straight games - all by double digits - and two of those wins came by 29 points! Unfortunately, that made them a bit overvalued (even as a road dog) against the Rams. After making 20 three-pointers last Tuesday vs. St. Joe's, the Wildcats were held to just 4 of 17 from behind the arc by the Rams. In retrospect, the closing line for the game seems a bit ridiculous given the gap between Rhode Island and the rest of the A-10. But it also speaks volumes that they come into this game laying points. I expect the offense to bounce back after Friday's terrible performance.

VCU needed a career-high 37 points from Justin Tillman, as well as an extra five minutes of action to get by Dayton on Saturday. That was a home game and they did shoot 53.7% from the floor. I don't expect them to shoot that well as a team here, nor do I expect Tillman (19.2 PPG average) to come anywhere close to that career-high performance. VCU has not fared well as the underdog this year, going 2-7 straight up and 3-6 against the spread in this role. They are giving up an average of 76.6 PPG in conference play. Compare that to Davidson, who is allowing only 60.8 PPG in conference play. 8* Davidson

8* Miami FL (9:00 ET): With Virginia off a loss, it's 1st in ACC play all season, conventional wisdom will have the Hoos bouncing back. After all, they are still ranked #1 in all of the land. But laying points on the road isn't always the best situation for a "bounce back." Miami is 9-1 SU here in Coral Gables, the only loss coming to Duke. Plus, the 'Canes are off a close loss themselves. So they won't be lacking for motivation either. Then there's the fact that the "The U' hasn't lost by more than two points in regulation in almost a month. Take the points here as Virginia should certainly be on "upset alert."

Virginia's loss to Virginia Tech was an overtime affair, a 61-60 final where they were playing from behind most of the way and shot only 34.4% overall. Obviously, there's nothing wrong with a defense that allows only 61 pts in an overtime game. Sure enough, the Cavaliers have the second best defensive efficiency rating by any team over the last 10 years. So this is a team that should certainly be taken very seriously. They'd won 15 in a row before Saturday. There's two interesting things about their ascension to #1. One, obviously, is that they did so despite losing. Well, that's because each of the top three teams in America lost last week. The second is that this is the first time since 1982 (the Ralph Sampson days!) that a Virginia team has been ranked #1 in the country. Remember - they came into this season UNRANKED. I'm intrigued as to how they'll handle the target being on their back.

Miami allowed the last nine points of the game Saturday at BC to lose 72-70 as 1.5-pt favorites. As if they needed any extra motivation (they don't!), what better than getting to host the #1 team in the country on national television? The Hurricanes are 9-1 SU at home, winning by an average of 15.2 PPG. Visitors shoot less than 40 percent here. That will come in handy against a defensive-minded team like Virginia. With point potentially at a premium, taking the points seems like a natural move. Note Miami won in Charlottesville LY (were +7.5), 54-48. This will be the most points that "The U" have gotten in any game all season. 8* Miami FL

10* Under Rockets/T'wolves (8:05 ET): Certainly the potential for a high-scoring affair is there w/ the second and third most efficient offenses in the game matching up. But oddsmakers are keen to this as well and have opened the O/U line very high for this matchup. The average Houston game nor the average Minnesota game averages the number of points per game in question here. Furthemore, a meeting between these two teams last month (won by the Rockets, in Houston) saw "only" 214 total pts scored (116-98 final score). I don't see an Over here either in what should be a "playoff-like atmosphere." Take the Under. 

Houston has won eight in a row and now trails Golden State by just one game in the race for the top spot in the Western Conference. They have both a slightly better YTD point differential and offensive efficiency rating than the Warriors, both the best such marks in the league. They are also a surprising 8th in defensive efficiency. Clearly, they have emerged as the top threat to the Dubs. They lead the league in number of three-pointers made per game, but were a surprising 13 of 45 in the win over Dallas on Sunday. That game, a 104-97 final, saw their defense lead the way by holding the Mavericks to 40.9% shooting. The Rockets haven't let a single opponent shoot 50% in a game this month.

Minnnesota will likely head into the All-Star Break as a top four team in the Western Conference. They are currently fourth, but only one-half game behind San Antonio. The upside here looks tremendous w/ the offense ranking third in efficiency despite ranking near the bottom of the league in three-pointers made. Defensively, there is some work that needs to be done. The T'wolves' last four games have all gone Over, but before that it was four straight Unders. Before that was another four-game Over streak. So if the pattern holds, an Under will be in store tonight. It's not just that, however. Defensively, the team allows only 103.5 PPG at home, which is alot more respective than what we've seen recently as they've allowed an average of 111.2 points the last four games. But that number is heavily skewed by the overtime game against Cleveland, which was a 140-138 loss. 10* Under Rockets/T'wolves

8* Over Hawks/Bucks (8:05 ET): "At long last," we finally saw Milwaukee's long Under streak come to an end Saturday (at nine games) when they downed Orlando 111-105. I had the Over there and as I said in my analysis, the defensive improvement we've seen from the Bucks post-Jason Kidd firing was bound not to last. Before the win over Orlando, the team had held seven of its previous eight opponents under 100 pts, which is extremely rare in this league. Over the past five games, their opponents have shot just 40.8% from the field and averaged 93.6 points per game. Orlando, who is not a good team, was above those numbers on Saturday, so there's no reason the Hawks can't do the same. Take the Over.

Atlanta is actually off a win here as they beat Detroit 118-115 on Sunday, at home. Going 32 of 37 from the free throw line certainly helped. However, that was also the fifth time in the last seven games that the Hawks scored at least 107 pts. This is not a good road team (5-22 straight up!), but that has a lot to do w/ the defense. For the year, they give up 109.3 PPG away from home, which actually isn't that much higher than what they give up overall (108.1 PPG). They rank 26th in defensive efficiency. Four times in those last seven games, they've allowed 115 or more points. They've given up 123 and 115 in the last two, respectively.

These teams have not met since the end of October. It was in Atlanta and Milwaukee won 117-106 . They shredded the Hawks' defense to the tune of 54.5% shooting, including 13 of 26 from three-point range. One thing you usually can count on is the Bucks' offense as they are shooting 47.8 percent overall, including 48.6 percent here at home. Their own scoring has been down recently, coinciding w/ the defensive surge. Again, just like defensive regression, I expect the offensive numbers to start going up. Jabari Parker is expected back in the lineup tonight after sitting out Saturday. He's played four games since returning from an ACL injury and averaged a solid 9.3 points per game. Note Atlanta is 10-5 this season after allowing 115+ points and 4-2 Over after scoring 115+ points. 8* Over Hawks/Bucks

10* Oklahoma (7:00 ET): Led by Trae Young, Oklahoma got off to an incredible 14-2 start. But many of the advanced metrics raised some "red flags" and sure enough those red flags have came to fruition as the team has lost six of its last eight games. Now the majority of those losses have been close, including one by two points last week at home to West Virginia. Saturday saw them again lose as a favorite (-6), this time on the road to Iowa State. But that didn't stop the NCAA Tournament committee from pronouncing this as one of the top 16 teams. The pollsters aren't quite as high as the Sooners check in at #23 in the latest Top 25 poll. Things get no easier tonight w/ a visit to Lubbock to face #7 Texas Tech.

The seventh-ranked Red Raiders are trending in a much different direction that OU right now. They've won six straight, the last three all coming by double digits (3-0 ATS). This is the #3 team nationally in defensive efficiency (trailing only Virginia & Cincinnati) and they are holding opponents to only 58.9 points per game here at home where they have yet to lose a single time this season (15-0 straight up). Yet, this line seems inflated due to recent results. When they met last month in Norman, not only did Oklahoma win 75-65, they did so as 2.5-pt chalk. Given that result, it sure seems like the number has swung too far in the other direction for the rematch. Again, I suspct this has to do w/ recent results. But that's a small sample size, remember.

After losing B2B games as a favorite, Oklahoma is coming into this game highly motivated. Young has struggled in the previous two road games, at Texas & Iowa State, going just 14 for 43 overall from the field, including 3 for 22 from three-point range. I suspect he's going to have a big, bounce-back type game here, in spite of the Red Raiders' defensive numbers. In the first meeting, Young went for 27 pts (w/ 10 assists) and that was despite not shooting all that well. This is a player that has scored 43 or more points in four different games (he's the nation's leading scorer). By Big 12 standards, Texas Tech's recent slate of games hasn't been all that challenging. I expect nothing worse than a close loss from OU here. 10* Oklahoma

8* Baylor (9:00 ET): The back half of the Big Monday doubleheader sees Texas hosting Baylor in an important games for both sides. As of today, it would appear as if both teams are right near the "cut line" for the NCAA Tournament. Baylor looks to be on the wrong side ("out") though they did just deliver their most impressive win of the year Saturday, beating Kansas 80-64 in Waco as three-point underdogs. That was the Bears' third consecutive win and cover. Texas, if you believe the "Bracketologists" would be in the field of 68 (anywhere between a 10-12 seed), even though they sport the very same 15-10 SU record as Baylor and have lost B2B games. I have the underdog rated as the better team here and given their lot, I think they're the more "desperate" side here. Take the points. 

Full disclosure - I did play against Baylor on Saturday. That was a mistake as the Bears put together one hell of an effort. In the first half, Kansas had more turnovers (9) than field goals made (7)! Now, I did say in my analysis that in my own personal power rankings, Baylor was ahead of not one, but two Big 12 teams that were thought to be "in" the Big Dance. Those being Kansas State ... and Texas. Baylor won the first meeting w/ the Longhorns this season, 69-60 as 2.5-pt chalk. They did so despite going 3 of 12 from three-point range. The key to victory was defense as Texas shot only 34.3% overall and attempted only five free throws. It will be hard to duplicate those kind of numbers, but it's not like the Longhorns have improved much offensively over the last month. 

Now Baylor has shot the ball extremely well during its three-game win streak, hitting 50% or better from the field in every game. They shot 56.6% from the floor against Kansas! Texas, known for its defensive efficiency (8th nationally), has allowed three straight opponents to shoot 51.6% or better from the field. TCU shot 54.8% against them in an 87-71 loss (for Texas) Saturday. Both of these teams have experienced their "fair share" of close losses in conference play, but Texas is the only one that's really been blown out. Not only was there the TCU game, but they also lost by 35 @ WVU. Baylor is 5-7 SU in conference play, but four of those losses have come by three points or less. They are a perfect 4-0 ATS off a conference win this year. 8* Baylor

10* Over Magic/Bulls (8:05 ET): Call it the "gambler's fallacy," but this play boils down to the fact Orlando and Chicago have a long (bizarre?) history of going Under against one another and that's bound to end at some point. Nine straight meetings between the two sides have stayed Under, which has to be one of the longest active, head to head streaks in the league. However, it's more than just the "just due" factor that leads me to believe we'll be seeing an Over here. For the season, Orlando's defense tends to be very bad (111.8 PPG allowed) on the road and their recent defensive efforts (which have been good) were due not to last. That's why I played (and won w/) the Over in their last game, a 111-104 loss to Milwaukee.

For me, Chicago has been a bottom rung team all season long. But this current stretch ranks right up there w/ their very worst. They've dropped eight of nine coming into tonight w/ the only win coming by a single point (over Minnesota). Even that win saw them fall behind by as many as 17 points. The Bulls latest "effort" was one of the worst of the entire losing skid as they fell 101-90 to Washington, here at home. They shot only 42.5% in the loss and the game easily stayed Under. It was the latest in a long-line of poor shooting efforts from Chicago, but perhaps a visit from Orlando will be what cures them (see defensive numbers above) as the Magic are allowing opponents to shoot right around 48% YTD. 

Chicago is no "great shakes" defensively either. In fact, both teams allow more than 109 PPG in all games this season. It's a little strange that Orlando's Over record isn't a little "better" away from home, given they both score and allow more points per game here than at home. The average Magic road game sees 218.4 points scored. In terms of points allowed, both teams rank in the bottom seven in the league. So again, despite the head to head history here, calling for a high-scoring game here is not w/o logic. The Magic also average 106.6 PPG on the road. At one point Saturday vs. Milwaukee, they missed 14 straight three-pointers. That won't happen again here. Nor will Chicago endure another 0 for 7 stretch to close the game like they did against the Wizards. 10* Over Magic/Bulls

8* New York (7:05 ET): Sure, the Knicks season is "all over but the shouting" now as Kristaps Porzingis was lost to a season-ending ACL tear. But the remaining players were game enough to stick w/ Indiana last night, for three quarters at least, in a 121-113 defeat. ATS results will vary there as there, as it could have been a win (Knicks opened +9.5), loss (closed +7.5) or even a push, depending when one bet the game. Even though this is the second game of a back to back and the team has now dropped six straight, I feel this line is way too high. The overreaction by the oddsmakers is obviously a result of the spot on the schedule and the loss of Porzingis. But at least last night the Knicks offense was able to show some life, for the first time w/o its All-Star. Take the points.

Another reason we are able to grab an inflated number here has to do w/ the recent play of the 76ers. They've won and covered three straight, all as favorites. Overall, this team has played pretty well, going back to late December. There was a stretch where they'd won seven of eight, but I'd argue that the current win streak is as good as they've looked all season. Yet, this is a pretty uncharted number for the young Sixers. It will be the most points they've been asked to lay in any game all season. The only other time they were a double digit favorite in 2017-18 (12.4 vs. Phoenix), they ended up losing that game outright. I simply cannot see a fourth consecutive double-digit win here, even given the respective state of the two teams involved here. 

As I mentioned earlier, the Knicks (finally) showed some life offensively last night. That would be the first time since Porzingis went down as they scored 113 pts against Indiana. In their five previous games (all losses), they had averaged only 87.2 PPG. Not saying they'll score 113 again here, but it was only a matter of time before the remaining players began to score more. Though their play on the defensive end has been better recently, Philadelphia still is giving up 105.8 PPG for the year. In division games, that number rises to 107.3. Emmanuel Mudiay, acquired in a trade w/ Denver, should continue to give the Knicks plenty of production (scored 17 pts in team debut yday). I simply don't trust "The Process" in this price range. 8* New York

10* UCF (4:00 ET): This is one of those challenging games to handicap due to key absences on both sides. But I have UCF rated as the better team, even after factoring in homecourt, thus they're a play for me on Sunday. Back on January 3rd, they proved they are a better team than Memphis, beating the Tigers 65-56 as eight-point home chalk. The line appears to have now swung far too much in the other direction, especially given the result of the 1st matchup. Granted, the Golden Knights just got their doors blown off by Cincinnati (lost by 37!) on Tuesday. B.J. Taylor reinjured his ankle in the loss after missing all five shots and is questionable to play today. But with or without him, UCF can lean on the fact there is simply no way they can be as bad from three-point range here as they were vs. Cincinnati (0 for 14!) and they remain one of the top defensive teams in the country. Take the points.

Memphis is also coming off a blowout loss. There's was suffered at the hands of Wichita State, the other "power" in the AAC. It was a 20-pt home loss and the Tigers' fourth setback in the past five games. As I've stated before, this is not your "older brother's Memphis' team." It certainly appears as if the players have tuned out HC Tubby Smith. Malik Rhodes was recently suspended for his public gripes over playing time. Keep in mind last Saturday, the Tigers lost to a terrible East Carolina team, 88-85. It wasn't just that they lost either; East Carolina came in as the nation's WORST three-point shootingt team and yet went 11 of 24 from behind the arc. That is one of just three AAC wins for ECU on the season and it clearly illustrates there's hope for the UCF offense here, regardless if Taylor plays or not.

I mentioned earlier that UCF is one of the top defensive teams in the country. This is true. Per KenPom, they rank fourth nationally in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 61.3 PPG w/ opponents shooting less than 39% for the season. Really, it's a shock that they are only 14-9 SU. That record has more to do w/ injuries than performance, however, and coming off a humiliating defeat I'd expect a motivated team today. As for Memphis, they are a terrible three-point shooting team (28.8% for the year!) and have allowed 80+ pts in B2B games. 10* UCF

8* Boston (3:35 ET): In spite of an incredible roster overhaul, I remain highly skeptical of Cleveland. Granted, such an overhaul NEEDED to take place considering the current team (outside of LeBron) simply wasn't very good. Despite being 10 games over .500, the Cavs have been outscored over the course of the season. They rank 28th in defensive efficiency and are giving up the most points in the Eastern Conference. Sure, they've won B2B games. But the first came against a Minnesota team (3rd offensive/24th defensive efficiency) they match up well with, considering the similar split in offensive/defensive efficiency (Cavs 5th on offense). Then, after all the trades went down, it was the lowly Hawks that they beat. No reason to be impressed there. Today, it's the Celtics and this spread is too low. Lay the number.

While Cleveland has languished near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency all season long, Boston has been the top team in this department. They rank #1, just barely allowing over one point per possession (Cleveland allows almost 1.1). Spread those efficiencies out over the course of a full 48 minutes and the gap is tremendous. The Celtics are currently the only team in the league besides San Antonio to be allowing fewer than 100 PPG. However, they do have their own issues to sort out right now. They've lost two of three and the one win required a bit of a miracle to beat Washington in overtime. They very easily could be coming into this game on a three-game losing skid. Offensively, they've been held under 100 pts in three of the last four games. Getting blown out Tuesday in Toronto, then losing at home to Indiana on Friday has them percentage points BEHIND the Raptors for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. 

I can't see Boston losing B2B home games though, something they have done only one other time all season (last month). In fact, following a SU loss, their record is 11-5 SU and 10-5-1 ATS. Cleveland has been all-time bad at the betting window this season, going 16-37-1 ATS and while they're the underdog here, I still suspect it's going to take time for the new roster to gel. Also, their ATS record off a double digit win this season is just 1-7. They lost here in Boston by 14 pts last month. Today is also a special day in Beantown as Paul Pierce's number is going to be retired. 8* Boston

10* Gonzaga (10:00 ET): This is the game Gonzaga has been waiting for as they seek to avenge their lone conference loss of the season and one of just four losses this season, period. They have lost since falling at home to St. Mary's, 74-71, as 7.5-pt chalk back on January 18th. Interestingly enough though, they have not covered a single spread since then either. The Zags are now on an eight-game ATS losing streak, which goes back to the game before losing to St. Mary's. Their YTD margin of victory, whether you're talking overall (+17.4 PPG) or in WCC play (+19.4) remains impressive. However, it's definitely taken a "hit" recently. None of the L4 wins have come by more than 10 points. This one doesn't have to be though, and that's key as I'll take the points.

Computers and power rankings seem to like these two more than the pollsters, which is nothing new. I believe Gonzaga to be the better team and one of the 10 best in the country for that matter. St. Mary's wouldn't be too far behind, but Top 20 is a better designation for them. The issue of homecourt advantage then comes into play here. The Gaels have won all 14 home games this season, by an average of nearly 19 points per game. Of course, homecourt advantage certainly didn't matter the first time these teams met when SMU pulled the upset (Gonzaga's lone home loss of the year). The line has swung about 10 points for this rematch, which seems like (to me) an overadjustment by the oddsmakers. Take note that both teams played Thursday and St. Mary's is just 2-8 ATS this season when playing w/ one or no days' rest.

The Gaels last loss occurred on November 26th, in overtime, at a neutral site against Georgia. That particular holiday tournament (Wooden Classic in Fullerton) is responsible for both losses this season as the game prior saw them lose to Washington State. Outside of Gonzaga, St. Mary's has not faced another ranked team all season. So the schedule can definitely be called into question. Meanwhile, Gonzaga has faced a schedule that includes games vs. Ohio State, Florida, Creighton and Villanova. Any of those four teams would be SMU's hardest or second-hardest game to date. St. Mary's was ridiculous from the field in that first meeting, shooting 56.6% overall and 8 of 13 from three-point range. Don't look for those numbers to be duplicated tonight. 10* Gonzaga

8* Orlando (7:05 ET): Milwaukee's recent surge (following the firing of Jason Kidd) ended w/ a THUD last night as they lost 91-85 down in Miami. Tonight is the second of back to back games in Florida and they get the lesser of two teams in Orlando. Any realistic chance of the Magic competing for a playoff spot went out the window long ago, but right now they are playing their best basketball since November. It's been three consecutive upset wins (over Miami, Cleveland and Atlanta) and they're 4-1 SU their five games as well. Those four wins equal the number they had over their previous 24 games! Yet, the Bucks are the team I feel is more likely to "come back down to Earth" tonight. Take the points.

Milwaukee has performed surprisingly well in the second half of a back to back this season, going 8-3 SU and 7-2-2 ATS. But it's not too often that they are favored on the road in this situation. As a matter of fact, tonight will make just the eighth time all season that the Bucks are favored on the road. The numbers suggest this is a pretty mediocre outfit as they've scored and allowed the same number of points per game (104.4) this season. Recently, their defense had improved somewhat dramatically (since firing Kidd), but while last night marked the fourth straight time they allowed fewer than 100 pts (also 7th time in last 8 games), the offensive numbers were ugly. They scored only 85 pts, their second fewest in a game all season. The only time they scored fewer (79) was January 14th, also against Miami! So it must be something about the Heat.

The last time they faced Orlando was last month (in Milwaukee) and that was a 110-103 final, won by the Bucks as 10.5-pt favorites. Milwaukee went 41 of 62 on two-point attempts in that game. Orlando is obviously playing better now, both offensively and defensively, then they were then. In fact, the last 11 games have seen them average 107.6 PPG, up from 102.7 the previous 27. They are also allowing "only" 105.4 the L11 games after allowing 112.6 PPG those previous 27. The fact they've been able to make this run w/o leading scorer Aaron Gordon is impressive. The team is now 6-2 SU w/ DJ Augustin as the starting point guard. All season, Orlando has been competitive at home, going 11-14 SU and only being outscored by an average of three points per game. 8* Orlando

10* Over Bucks/Magic (8:05 ET): It's been a rather significant defensive resurgence post-Jason Kidd firing as they've now held seven of their last eight opponents, including the last four, below 100 pts. However, last night saw the offensive betray them in an ugly 91-85 loss to Miami. It was the third quarter in particular that cost them as they were outscored 30-9. They also missed 14 of 20 three-pointers for the game. They've now gone Under in nine consecutive games as well as 14 of the past 16. I cannot see this continuing. The last five games have seen them allow an average of only 94.4 PPG, which is rougly 10 PPG below their season average. At the same time, they're also scoring about 10 PPG less than their season average those L5 games. Take the Over here as the number is more than 10 pts lower than what it was when these teams faced off last month.

Tonight sees the Magic gunning for their first four-game win streak since late 2015! They've pulled three consecutive upsets, beating Miami, Cleveland and Atlanta. They've also won four of five, averaging 110.4 PPG in the process. But offense has never really been an issue here, even w/ leading scorer Aaron Gordon currently out of the lineup. The team averages 105.7 PPG for the year and has been at 107.6 PPG the L11 games. Defensively, however, there are issues. They rank 27th in efficiency. They have allowed fewer than 100 pts in B2B games, but allowed 98 both times. This is only the second time all season we've seen the Magic do this and the first saw them allow 99 in both games. A team giving up 109.9 PPG for the season should give up its "fair share" tonight. 

When these teams met last month, it was a 111-103 final, won by Milwaukee. The Bucks shot an outrageous 41 of 62 from two-point range, but what's interesting is that neither team shot well from three-point range. They combined to go 12 for 48, exactly 25%. Orlando only shot 43.3% for the game and should easily improve upon that here, Milwaukee's recent defensive showings be damned. The Bucks also missed a lot of free throws in that last matchup, which cost Over bettors. With a far lower O/U line this time around and Milwaukee destined to see its performance move closer to season-long averages, Over is the call here. 10* Over Bucks/Magic

9* Over Purdue/Michigan State (4:00 ET): Maybe they were caught looking ahead to this game, but Purdue blew a 14-point second half lead Thursday against Ohio State and saw it's 19-game winning streak come to an end. It was also the 5th consecutive game they failed to cover. The other half of the equation in this Big 10 showdown is Michigan State and the Spartans have struggled at the betting window of late as well, going 0-4-1 ATS their L5 games. Somebody "has" to cover today obviously (or maybe it will be a push?), but my interest is w/ the total. I had the Over in the aformentioned Purdue-Ohio State game and while that came up short, I don't see that being the case here in a battle of two teams both averaging 80+ PPG.

This is also just the 2nd time all season that Purdue checks in as an underdog. The first took place all the way back on 11.24 vs. Arizona, who at the time was ranked #2 in the country. That game took place in Atlantis and it's crazy that those two teams were playing for 7th place in the tournament. Were they to play again today, Purdue would clearly be favored. It's also interesting to note that at the time the Boilermakers were off B2B losses. Beating Arizona is what started the 19-game win streak as they scored 89 points on 57.4% shooting. Wednesday's loss to Ohio State saw the Boilers shoot only 42.6% overall and it was their lowest scoring game of the year (63 points). Pretty clearly, you should expect a bounce back offensively here. We've seen 9 of their last 11 games stay Under, so we're also "due" for an Over.

East Lansing has seen its fair share of high-scoring games this season as the Over is 9-3 in all Spartans' home games. Sparty is also off a high-scoring win on the road and, really, that's putting things mildly. They won 96-93 at Iowa on Wednesday and, no, there was no overtime there. MSU scored 48 pts in each half and shot 56.1% for the game. While those numbers may be hard (if not impossible) to duplicate here, note that Purdue has allowed a shooting percentage of nearly 50 percent its last five games. Michigan State also is averaging a stunning 90 PPG here at the Breslin Center. Purdue averages a not too shabby 83.2 PPG overall and both teams rank in the top 10 in offensive efficiency nationally. 9* Over Purdue/Michigan St

8* Kansas (2:00 ET): #10 Kansas finds itself in a dogfight as it looks to win an unprecedented 14th consecutive Big 12 regular season title. The Jayhawks enter the weekend tied for 1st w/ #7 Texas Tech at 8-3 SU in conference play. After suffering a somewhat shocking home defeat at the hands of Oklahoma State last Saturday, Bill Self's squad quickly bounced back by defeating TCU 71-64 as seven-point chalk. Today, they'll hit the road to face Baylor. The Bears, who played KU tough last month (lost by only three in Lawrence) are off B2B victories, though they'd also lost four in a row before that. That loss to the Jayhawks last month was particularly painful as the Bears still have NEVER won in Allen Fieldhouse. They led by six w/ just over two minutes remaining. I expect a similar result this afternoon in Waco. 

Baylor is just 4-7 SU in Big 12 play and 14-10 SU overall. Right now, they are NOT considered a NCAA Tournament team, the only Big 12 team besides Oklahoma State and Iowa State with that distinction. Quite frankly, it would take one heck of a close to the regular season or more likely winning the conference tournament just to get to the Big Dance. To illustrate how strong this league is, I have the Bears ranked 32nd in the country, which would be sixth best in the 12-team Big 10 (ahead of both Texas and Kansas State). While there have been some close calls in this rivalry recently (last five meetings all decided by six points or less!), all of them have gone Kansas' way. The Jayhawks have even found plenty of ATS success here in Waco, covering in 10 of the previous 13 visits. 

Baylor has won consecutive games by double digits, but those came against the two weakest teams in the league, Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Needless to say, the defensive effort put forth in Tuesday's "upset" (were +2) in Stillwater likely won't be repeated here as they held OK State to 37.3% shooting for the game. Kansas comes in ranked in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and that's something that only a handful of teams in the county can lay claim to (only 5 to be exact: Purdue, Mich St, Gonzaga & WVU being the others). I just can't see the Jayhawks losing here, so that combined w/ a low spread has me laying the points. 8* Kansas

8* Oklahoma State (12:00 ET): The Big 12 likes to fancy itself as the best - and deepest - conference in America. Yet, there is a good chance that we'll be seeing the same end result we always do come the end of the regular season, that being Kansas on top. #19 West Virginia would certainly like to change that though. But even after B2B wins have gotten the Mountaineers within one game of the conference lead, there's still plenty of work to be done in Morgantown, especially considering the team had dropped five of six prior to the B2B victories. I have them rated as better than #19, but also can't see them winning by more than the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here against a game OK State squad. Take the points.

The Pokes are near the bottom of the Big 12 and have the league's worst RPI (outdated metric). However, that doesn't mean they haven't been competitive. Last Saturday, they went to Kansas and won - as 12-pt underdogs - 84-79. It's a little interesting to see them getting an almost identical number now against a slight inferior team. This underdog has generally been quite competitive on the road this season, leading Texas Tech, Kansas State and Arkansas in the second half. They ended up losing to those three teams by a combined 10 points. Then there was the first meeting w/ WVU, who they led by as many as 13 (w/ only seven minutes remaining!) before faltering late and losing the game 85-79. OK State didn't even end up covering as they were three-point dogs.

Using the the line for the first matchup as a baseline and the line for LW's Kansas game, it sure does seem as if there's some value on the underdog in this early Saturday tip. Keep in mind WVU is off a two-point victory (75-73) over Oklahoma as three-point underdogs. Also, Oklahoma State came here and won outright last season, 82-75 as 10-pt dogs. The road team has actually won each of the L4 meetings! Even against a great defensive team like WVU, I have to imagine the Cowboys will shoot better here than they did Tuesday vs. Baylor (37.3%) when they lost 67-56. Only one time, that being 1/3 at Oklahoma, have the Pokes been blown out in conference play. 8* Oklahoma State

8* Detroit (9:00 ET): The Horizon League lost Valparaiso (to the Missouri Valley) before this season, opening up a void that needed to be filled atop the conference. Currently, three teams are separated by just one game and are at least three games ahead of the rest of the field. Neither of these two teams are among that power trio (which is Wright State, Northern Kentucky and UIC). Yet there will still be a sense of pride on the line Friday night as in-state rivals Oakland and Detroit meet. Especially because this is a rare national TV game (on ESPN2). The first matchup of the year produced a 92-86 Oakland win, although they failed to cover as nine-point road favorites (thanks to a big Detroit 2H rally). I'll be taking the points here.

A couple things to consider here before we break down the actual matchup on the court. One is that an official statement has been released that this game WILL be played tonight, regardless if Oakland is forced to "shut down" the campus due to inclement weather in the area. Obviously, given the weather situation, I expect crowd support to be low and thus decrease the value of "homecourt advantage" in this one. Two, a lot of names (on both sides) won't be playing. Just SIX scholarship players suited up for Oakland in Sunday's 82-74 win over IUPUI. That's because THREE players were injured in last Friday's 79-73 loss to UIC, one of them a season-ender (ACL) to starting PG Brailen Neely. Detroit's depth is also being tested as three players were already out due to suspension (undisclosed or academic) and now three more are either injured or battling the flu. Good grief! 

WIth both teams possibly running "skeleton crews" on the floor Friday night, taking the points only seems logical, especially w/ this being a rivalry game. The first meeting saw Oakland jump out to a 50-29 halftime lead before winning by only six. I can't see Detroit digging themselves such a hole this time around. I also have to question the psyche of an Oakland team that was the preseason favorite in the Horizon League and has massively underachieved (just 4-11 ATS as a favorite). Meanwhile, Detroit (currently in 10th place) can still improve its position for the conference tournament as they are only two games back of fifth place Milwaukee in the loss column. 8* Detroit

10* Over Bucks/Heat (8:05 ET): The Bucks' Under streak hit EIGHT in a row Tuesday as they held the Knicks (lost Kristaps Porzingis to season-ending injury during the course of the game) to just 89 points on 41.6% shooting. Apparently, Jason Kidd wasn't preaching defense because since his firing Milwaukee has transformed somewhat dramatically on that end of the floor. They've allowed 96 pts or fewer six times in the last seven games. Not coincidentally, those six times all resulted in wins and the one exception was a loss (108-89 loss to Minnesota). Speaking of streaks, tonight's opponent (Miami) has lost its last five games. This is a low total (for both teams) and I'm going Over.

While the Bucks' play on the defensive end seems to be rapidly improving, it's been just the opposite for the Heat, who have allowed 111, 111 and 109 pts respectively the L3 games. Before you ask, none of the games went to overtime either. While they did just hold Houston slightly below its scoring average of 114.0 PPG (lost 109-101), they still let the Rockets shoot 51% from the field. That was two games after letting the Pistons (not a great offensive team) shoot 52.4% from the field. For the year, teams are actually shooting a pretty healthy 46.5% against the Heat here in Miami. At the same time, the Heat have now topped 100 pts in three straight games after failing to do so six straight times. 

To me, the key here is Milwaukee's recent defensive showing is due to regress to the mean. The last five games have seen them allow only 95.2 PPG, which is well below their norm for the season, especially on the road where they are still giving up 105.8 PPG. The average number of points per game Milwaukee scores + allows is 209.2 (they both score/allow 104.6), which is well above the O/U line for tonight. The same holds true for Miami's season average, albeit to a lesser degree. You would have to go all the way back to 12.9 to find the last Bucks' game that had an O/U line below 200 pts and that game (117-110 win over Utah) easily went Over. In fact, the Bucks are a perfect 7-0 Over this season when the O/U line is below 200 points! Miami is 3-1 Over the L4 times w/ a total this low. 10* Over Bucks/Heat

8* Washington (8:05 ET): With Cleveland declining and skepticism of Toronto, the NBA's Eastern Conference seems far more wide open in 2018 than past years. Most consider Boston the favorite now, but they just got clobbered up in Toronto (lost by 20) two nights ago. Granted, they had won four in a row prior to the loss, but they're still only 5-6 SU the L11 games overall. Tonight, the Celtics visit the Nation's capital to take on a Wizards team also looking to rebound from a bad loss suffered on Tuesday. Playing on the second night of a back to back (and w/o John Wall), the Wiz lost in Philly 115-102, a game which they never led. Tonight marks their ONLY home game from February 3rd-22nd and I expect an all-out effort.

You may have noticed this line "flipped" overnight w/ the Wizards now favored. Boston is 11-2 ATS as an underdog while Washington is just 11-23 ATS as a favorite. So the "reversed roles" may not seem all that promising. However, note that the Wiz are 5-1 ATS off a double digit loss this season, plus 17-9 SU at home where they average an impressive 110.5 PPG. Now they still don't have Wall, but they do have Bradley Beal, who is having a career year. Some (not me) have even speculated that the team plays better without Wall. They'd won five in a row prior to the Philly loss and that included wins here at home over Oklahoma City and Toronto, both as underdogs. This is just the 2nd meeting of the year w/ Boston; Washington won the first, on the road, X-Mas Day as four-point dogs (111-103) despite being outshot severely from three-point range. 

That X-Mas Day matchup saw Boston go 14 of 29 from three-point range while Washington was only 6 for 26. I don't see a repeat of those numbers tonight. The Celtics trailed Toronto by as many as 29 on Tuesday as Kyrie Irving returned from his own injury. That was just the fourth double digit loss of the season and they've responded from each of the previous three by winning the next time out. But you can look for tonight to be a bit different as the Wizards should be treating this game w/ the utmost importance. Meanwhile, Boston has to think about returning home to face Indiana tomorrow night, followed by another home game vs. Cleveland on Sunday. 8* Washington

analysis soon

10* Delaware (7:00 ET): Tonight, we head to the CAA, a league that is nowhere near what it once was during they "heyday" of George Mason and VCU. Both those schools left for the "greener pastures" of the Atlantic 10, leaving behind a field that is generally competitive, albeit no longer than dangerous come March. Northeastern is one of the teams currently competing for the top spot as they enter the day just one game back of 1st place Charleston. The Huskies snapped a two-game losing streak by beating UNC Wilmington 107-100 on Saturday, but as you can tell from that score, it was an overtime affair. Tonight, they hit the road for what "looks" to be a winnable game, but it's always dangerous laying points in this situation and I'll fade. 

Delaware is your host tonight and things have not been going well for the Blue Hens of late. They're on a six-game losing streak, three of those coming at home. But, as you might expect, the losses at home have generally been closer calls than those that took place on the road. They covered here against both Towson and Hofstra, losing those games by only a combined nine points. Tonight marks a revenge spot for the Blue Hens, who lost up in Northeastern last month by a score of 76-64. Interestingly, they were "only" 10-pt dogs in that contest, so by comparison, tonight's line looks like it has some substantial value. Delaware actually led the 1st meeting at the half, 31-28.

Now not having leading scorer Ryan Daly is something Delaware must overcome here. He injured his ankle against Charleston back on Jan 25 and hasn't played in any of the three games since. However, even w/o him, the Blue Hens were competitive in two home games. Tonight's spread appears to be an overreaction to the injury. Even in Saturday's 13-pt loss to Elon, offense really wasn't an issue as the Blue Hens scored 76 pts despite going only 6 of 25 from three-point range. Northeastern isn't a great defensive team by any means and their offensive numbers are obviously "skewed" by the last game. As a nine-point underdog LY, the Blue Hens upset the Huskies here at home. I think they are capable of doing it again. 10* Delaware.

10* Over Ohio State/Purdue (8:30 ET): This sets up as a GREAT matchups as these two teams have gone a combined 23-1 SU vs. the rest of the Big 10 w/ that one loss belonging to the Buckeyes (at home to Penn State). Purdue is one of the consensus top three teams in the country right now (along w/ Villanova and Virginia) and I could make a case that there's NO team better than Boilermakers, who have outscored their opponents by 19.8 points per game over the course of the season. However, they are off a close call at Rutgers (won by only 2) on Saturday and have failed to cover four in a row. This spread MIGHT be too low, but I'm more comfortable wagering on the total tonight, which I'm confident is too low. Take the Over.

While Purdue had to thwart a comeback effort Saturday vs. Rutgers (led virtually the entire game), Ohio State required a comeback to get by its lowly Big 10 opponent (Ilinois) on Sunday. The Buckeyes trailed by as many as 11 in the first half before taking control by halftime and leading the rest of the way. Something I noticed right away here is that despite both teams basically shooting 50% from the field in conference play, we've seen a rash of Unders from both sides. Ohio State has averaged 75 points its last three games and the two that went Under did so because of the opposition. Six of the Buckeyes' last seven games have stayed Under as they're now 17-6 Under for the season. But this team isn't very accustomed to playing out on the road (just four "true" road games!) and I'm wondering how and if their defense "travels." 

Purdue has uncharacteristically been struggling on the defensive end of late. Their last five opponents have shot 49.7% against them, though that clip is largely owed to Michigan's stunning 60% effort back on 1.25. Still all five teams shot at least 44.1% from the field. Not enough people talk about the Boilermakers' offense, which is third in the nation in efficiency and averages 87.4 PPG here in West Lafayette. They are shooting better than 50% for the year (all games), including a ridiculous 42.7% from three-point range. That helps explain why they've won 19 in a row (nation's longest win streak) and in the L17 games, they've scored no fewer than 70 every time. 10* Over Ohio State/Purdue

10* Memphis (8:05 ET): Similar to last night's OUTRIGHT winner on Orlando, we have a home team getting far too many points here. The situations aren't quite the same, however. Last night, I spoke (at great length!) about how bad Cleveland is right now and how they shouldn't be laying that many points - to any team - right now, even an opponent as lowly as Orlando. Despite the Cavs' (many!) shortcomings, they're still being valued at a price reflective of past year's performance, not the current season. Here w/ Utah, we have a team that has been playing WAY above its head recently. They've not only won and covered six straight, but five of those victories have come on the road (and in the one home game, they beat the Warriors by 30!). 

While it may seem ultra-dangerous to fade a team whose last four victories include THREE by 24+ pts, let's have some perspective, shall we? Prior to the current streak, the Jazz were an awful 5-19 straight up on the road. I have no unearthly idea where this offense has come from as the L4 games have seen them average an astounding 127.75 PPG! In the three games prior, they failed to even break 100! They've shot 56.5% or better in all four games, which I'm not sure I've EVER seen before, and just achieved a season-high in points scored w/ 133 on Monday in New Orleans. Obviously, the current level of play can't be sustained. It should be noted that this is the Jazz's fourth road game in six nights. That's a scheduling spot that often has an adverse effect on performance.

Why do I think Memphis, a team that just lost by 26 in Atlanta last night, is the one to stop this Utah streak? Well, for starters, their recent shooting has been just the opposite of the Jazz's. In each of the L3 games, the Grizzlies have been below 43% from the floor. All three games took place on the road, mind you. At home, the Grizz are a far more respectable outfit. It's also worth noting that they play at a very slow tempo. Their style of play, last night aside, is conducive to at least keeping games close. In fact, in terms of number of possessions per game, both of these teams are in the bottom six. I see this as a pretty low-scoring game and considering Utah has only been a road fave of this season ONCE all season (and lost outright at Phoenix back in October), this spread should be a lot smaller. Take the points. 10* Memphis

8* Maryland (6:30 ET): After last night's success (10* on Northwestern), it's back to the Big 10 we go. As discussed in yday's analysis, this top heavy league has three clear locks (Purdue, Ohio St, Michigan St) for the NCAA Tournament. Michigan is considered to a be 4th team that's "in," but the Wolverines did themselves no favors by losing last night. As for everyone else, it's going to take either an a) incredible late regular season run, b) winning the conference tournament or c) both a and b. Maryland and Penn State enter Wednesday in the middle of the pack, both at 16-9 straight up overall. The Terps ended a three-game losing streak on Sunday by rallying to beat Wisconsin. Penn State has covered four straight (3-1 SU) and off its biggest conference win to date, 82-58 over Iowa. 

First, let's address the "elephant in the room" here, shall we? Maryland could again be w/o 7'1" Michal Cekovsky, one of three injured players on this roster. Injuries can certainly help explain how this team went from 14-4 SU to just 16-9 SU in a hurry. However, they didn't have Cekovsky when they beat Wisconsin on Sunday. Note that there is a chance he plays tonight as he's listed as questionable on the injury report. Either way, this play stands. With or w/o Cekovsky, the Terps can stay in any game as long as their defense keeps playing the way it has. Opponents are shooting just 40.5% against them for the season. Also, while the record away from home looks bad (3-7 SU road/neutral site), note they've only been outscored by 3.7 PPG in those contests. 

I think that Penn State's previous result works against them here as it has artifically inflated this line. The Nittany Lions shot 54.7% from the floor against Iowa, but the Hawkeyes are a pretty atrocious defensive team and that adjective might be considered kind in some circles. While they've won three of their last four overall, including an upset over Ohio State, Penn State has won B2B games just one time in 2018. This is their longest ATS win streak of the season. I know Maryland has yet to win a single time as an underdog all season (0-8 SU), but tonight could very well be "their time." They beat Penn State back on Jan 2 (forgot to mention that!) as 3.5-pt chalk and that was despite making five fewer baskets in the game. 8* Maryland

8* Ole Miss (9:00 ET): The Rebels host Missouri tonight in a SEC tussle. While Mizzou is considered a NCAA Tournament team right now (Ole Miss is not), it's pretty interesting to note how the line has "flipped" overnight and you should be aware that while Ole Miss' SEC record is only 4-6 straight up, Mizzou's is just 5-5 SU. So despite the respective distinctions when it comes to the Big Dance, this is a lot closer matchup than most on the national level will make it out to be. In fact, I firmly believe that at home, the Rebels are likely to win here. Yes, they've lost three in a row, including a humiliating setback Saturday at Tennessee. But Mizzou is in prime letdown mode following a win over Kentucky that same day. 

Prior to winning B2B games (both by identical 69-60 scores), Missouri was dealing w/ its own three-game losing skid. All three losses were by double digits as well. Then came a win at Alabama last Wednesday and an even bigger victory Sat afternoon vs. Kentucky. The Tigers held those two opponents to about 33% shooting overall, which is obviously really tough to do. At the same time, Ole Miss shot only 35% from the floor against Tennessee. But a big key here is the game being Oxford where the Rebels average an impressive 81.6 PPG. Bottom line is I expect the hosts to be a lot more proficient on the offensive end tonight while the road team's defensive numbers from the L2 games should decrease rather dramatically here.

Missouri has dealt w/ plenty of attrition this season, losing four players from its original rotation. Michael Porter, Jr was obviously considered the biggest loss, but they've been dealing w/ his absence for almost three months now. Still, off their 1st EVER win over Kentucky, it's only natural to have a letdown in this spot. As for Ole Miss, they should be fully motivated coming off a 33-point loss on the road. They beat Missouri three times last season, so what's one more? Coming off an SEC loss, the Rebels are an incredible 19-3 ATS the past three seasons (4-1 ATS this year) and 65-33 ATS their L98. They are also a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS this season as a home favorite of three points or less. 8* Ole Miss

8* Orlando (7:05 ET): The Cavs stink. Seriously. What once could be written off as a mere "swoon" (they have struggled every year in January since LeBron's return) has now morphed into full-fledged disaster. There has never been a time since the King's return (in 2014-15) where things have been THIS bad. Not only do the Cavs rank an atrocious 29th in defensive efficiency, things have now gotten so bad on that end of the floor that they have a negative net efficiency rating. That means their offense (top 5) is no longer good enough to carry the defense, especially now that they are w/o Kevin Love. Isaiah Thomas has been a complete disaster, especially when you consider who he was traded for (Kyrie Irving).

Saturday night saw Cleveland lose by 32 - at home - to the Rockets. It was the fourth time since January 1st that the team lost a game by 24+ points, which is almost unconscionable. The loss caused LeBron to call for the team to be pulled off national TV games indefinitely and HC Ty Lue to reassert that the he thinks this is still a "playoff team." Imagine just two months ago thinking the Cavs wouldn't make the playoffs in the East! Even more unconscionable than all the blowout losses the Cavs have racked up is the fact they are an absolutely heinous 8-31 ATS as a favorite this year. That's key, because while my "handicapping style" normally might dictate a "buy low" situation here, the issue is the Cavs are still laying a substantial number on the road. Quite simply, there isn't a team in the league they should be laying this many to on the road.

Now Orlando will certainly put that theory to the test. The Magic are one of the worst teams in the league having lost 32 of their previous 40 games. But they did win last night - in Miami - and now can win B2B games for the 1st time since early November! Cleveland has won only five times in 2018 and two of those wins were against the Magic. But they came by a combined five points and Orlando is actually 3-0 ATS vs. the Cavs this season, including an outright win (as 11.5-pt road dogs) back in October. Before winning at Orlando on January 6th, the Cavs' previous road win came on December 17th. They've won only three times on the road since the start of December! Take the points. 8* Orlando

10* Northwestern (7:00 ET): It remains to be seen just how many teams from the Big 10 make the NCAA Tournament. Three - Purdue, Michigan State and Ohio State - are considered absolute locks. After that, Michigan is considered the only other team "Tournament worthy" at this point. The Wolverines, winners of B2B games at home, will hit the road tonight for a critical game at Northwestern. Fresh off their 1st NCAA Tourney appearance last year, the host Wildcats came into this season w/ Big Dance aspirations (four returning starters) and were even ranked in the top 25 at the start of the year. But they have been one of the bigger disappointments in the country so far as they are only 14-10 SU and probably need to win the Conference Tournament to make the field of 68.

Of course, a late season run would certainly improve N'western's chances as well. Looking at their remaining schedule, there's reason to believe such a run is possible. Purdue and Ohio State are both out of the way and only one game (vs. Michigan State on 2.17) figures to see them as a substantial underdog (and even that one is at home). With the Big 10 having expanded, you simply don't see as many regular season rematches anymore. But this is one. Last Monday in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines downed the Wildcats 58-47 in an ugly shooting night for both sides. Northwestern turning the ball over 16 times (Michigan only five) was definitely a factor as was the venue. Michigan is 13-1 SU in Ann Arbor this season (+15.9 PPG) while they're just 4-4 SU in "true" road games (only +1.9 PPG). Meanwhile, N'western is 10-3 SU at home, averaging 79.1 PPG, which is a dramatic rise in scoring compared to their season average.

Northwestern has played two rematches in conference play thus far and won both. The first, like this game, was a revenge spot against Penn State (won 70-61 here in Evanston). The second saw them sweep the season series from Minnesota, winning 77-69 on the road. Michigan has played only one Big 10 foe twice so far and dropped both games to Purdue. Note N'western did lead by nine in the first half in the first meeting in Ann Arbor. Defensively, they are playing better since switching to a 2-3 zone. They've also been off since Thursday while Michigan had to play an overtime game on Saturday, squeaking by short-handed Minnesota. 10* Northwestern

10* Under Blazers/Pistons (7:05 ET): Detroit has won three straight, but still sits outside of the top eight in the Eastern Conference (one-half game behind Philadelphia). That's because prior to the current win streak, they'd lost eight in a row while going 1-7 ATS in the process. But for our purposes, the streak/trend to pay attention to is the fact they've gone Over in five consecutive games. During this time, they have averaged 110.4 points per game (well above their season average of 102.9). They've also allowed 113.0 PPG, which is also well above their season average (103.1). I view this stretch as a pretty clear "outlier" and fully expect them to regress to the mean, starting tonight. Take the Under here as the O/U line is too high.

Portland is sixth in the West, but it figures to be a tough battle for those final three playoff spots in the Conference the rest of the way. They've lost two in a row, to Toronto and Boston (two top teams in the East) and need a win here to avoid a winless trip. The Motor City has not been kind to the Blazers in recent years as they are 0-4 SU/ATS the L4 trips here. Furthermore, this is the second game of a back to back as Sunday afternoon saw them fall by one point to a Boston team that was playing w/o Kyrie Irving. Al Horford's buzzer beater for the Celtics was of course the highlight of New Englanders' day yday. That's a tough loss for Portland as they held the Celtics to just 38 pts in the first half, but wound up shooting below 40% for the game themselves. 

The acquisition of Blake Griffin can be directly tied to the Pistons' resurgence, though they've been a good home team all year and both wins w/ Griffin in the lineup have been here in Detroit. Though Griffin scored 16 pts in the win over Miami Saturday, he made only one field goal the entire second half. I just come back to the fact that in four of the previous five games, the Pistons have scored and allowed more points than what they are giving up for the season. The one time they did not (vs. Memphis), the O/U line was very low. While yday may have marked the 1st time since 12.30 that Portland failed to score 100 pts, they have given up less than triple digits in three of the last five games. These teams rank 10th and 11th respectively in defensive efficiency. 10* Under Blazers/Pistons

8* Syracuse (7:00 ET): This matchup is used to carrying a lot of national importance, but not so much this time. Louisville is good, and the job that HC Scott Padgett is doing here should really be commended, considering the circumstances he inherited. However, the Cardinals are not ranked and are unlikely to make it past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Syracuse might be lucky even to make the field of 68 at this point as they are coming off an 0-2 week where they were held below 100 total pts by Georgia Tech and Virginia. Of course, L'ville was also 0-2 SU last week. So something is going to have to give here and I'll take the points, noting Syracuse had not been beaten by a margin larger than seven in ACC play (discounting an overtime loss) prior to Saturday. 

Looking at Syracuse's last seven days, their lack of success simply boils down to an inability to make shots. They shot 30% and 33.3% in the two losses, thereby negating some of their own strong defensive efforts. Note that this team actually ranks ninth in the country in defensive efficiency, which would serve them well if they were to make the NCAA Tournament. But it's actually been three straight games shooting 35.2% or worse from the field. Talk about being "due" to make shots! Prior to the loss to Virginia on Saturday (no shame there), the Orange had allowed field goal percentages of 27.7% and 33.3% its last two games. They are fourth in the nation in field goal percentage allowed. Saturday was a case of simply running into a better team. Only four Syracuse players scored, which is downright unconscionable! 

As for L'ville, they have given Syracuse problems in the past, especially here at home. Not only have the Cardinals won and covered seven of the last eight meetings at home, they are 3-0 SU and ATS the L3 overall. However, that was a different (and better) regime. This Louisville team has dropped three of its last four and for the 1st time in two seasons has dropped B2B ACC games. They were held to 12 of 33 shooting after halftime vs. Florida State on Saturday and outrebounded severely as well. Junior Ray Spalding (ankle) was also injured in the loss. Before Virginia on Saturday, Syracuse's ACC losses were by two, seven, 11 (misleading as it was a 2OT game) and four points. I like them as the underdog here. 8* Syracuse

10* Under Hornets/Suns (3:05 ET): Charlotte has begun to gain some "momentum" (still hate that word!) w/ B2B wins, but I'm not about to fall into the "trap" until further evidence of a legit turnaround is put forth. The Hornets have burnt me before as this is arguably the unluckiest team in NBA history, considering their record in games decided by three points or less is now 0-13 SU the L2 seasons. They have only two win streaks of three games all season and both took place prior to December. So, even though I FIRMLY believe this team is better than its overall record (better point differential than the Cavs!), I'm not about to lay points with them here. Especially this many. But something has caught my eye and that concerns the total. I'll be on the Under here.

The Hornets' two wins, which came against Atlanta and Indiana, saw them total an astronomical 256 points by themselves. They've previously had some big scoring efforts this year, but the 133 against Indiana Friday night matched a season-high. They shot 53% from the field and sank 15 three-pointers. It also helped that they went 30 of 34 from the free throw line. Kemba Walker led the way w/ 41 pts and has 79 the L2 games. Now, a matchup w/ the typically "defenseless" Suns (29th in efficiency) might seem ideal, but I'm not about to discount the fact Charlotte is only 7-15 SU on the road in large part to a scoring decrease from what they average at home. They won't have the FT shooting to lean on tonight and also this is one of their highest O/U lines of the season. The only two that were higher both saw the Under come in.

Phoenix does not shoot the ball well as they are below 44% from the field even at home. Last game saw them shoot only 41.4% from the floor, not that it mattered as they got blitzed by Utah, eventually losing by a score of 129-97. But Charlotte won't come close to matching the Jazz's shooting performance from that game (56.7%!) and while the Suns do give up plenty of points (112.1 per game), they also are 14-5 Under when facing an opponent that also allows more than 106 PPG. That includes four straight. Simply put, the O/U line is too high here as Charlotte is due to be worse offensively and Phoenix is due to get better defensively. 10* Under Hornets/Suns

8* Wisconsin (1:00 ET): If you're a regular client, then you may be getting a little "sick" of the Badgers right about now. After all, I've tried unsuccessfully w/ them, not once but twice, in the past seven days. Monday, they lost at home to Nebraska by a score of 74-63 (were 3.5 pt favorites). Wednesday, they again lost as a small home favorite, this time to Northwestern by a score of 60-52. The team has now lost seven of its last eight games overall (2-6 ATS) and its only role in the Big 10 race moving forward will be that of a spoiler. Call me stubborn; but I think they're undervalued in this spot (granted I thought the same the L2 games). So, let's say "the third time is the charm" and take the points.

Maryland is the Badgers' third opponent in the last seven days. The Terps aren't exactly playing well either as they've lost three straight and five of the last six. They will also not be at full strength Sunday. Leading scorer Anthony Cowan is dealing w/ a thumb injury and thus won't be at 100 percent. Furthermore, two other players - Dion Wiley and Michal Cekovsky - are listed as doubtful, thereby costing them depth. Maryland's one strength is rebounding, but they failed to control the boards in Tuesday's 75-67 loss at Purdue. Granted, that's one of the top teams in the entire country, but the Terrapins fell into a big early hole and never led in that game.

Wisconsin's season also took a nosedive in part due to injury, but at least they've become accustomed to playing w/o both D'Mitrik Trice and Kobe King. I realize that the Badgers have just one win outside of Madison all season, but rarely are they blown out and when they are, it's usually by a very good team. Maryland is not very good and the only reason they have a better record than Wisconsin has to do w/ a softer non-conference schedule. The Badgers have won each of the last two meetings against the Terps, both by double digits. Granted, they are nowhere close to the same time this year, but I think they have enough to stay within what is a generous number. 8* Wisconsin

8* New Orleans (8:05 ET): To me, there are two clear things "conspiring" against the Pelicans here, which have resulted in this line being several points higher than it ought to be. One is obviously the season-ending injury to DeMarcus Cousins, which literally and figuratively could prove to be a crippling blow to the team's playoff hopes. The other is the fact they find themselves in the second night of a back to back, on the road no less. But they were able to go into Oklahoma City last night and defeat the Thunder, so I see little reason why they can't compete here against a comparable Timberwolves squad. Take the points.

Remember that New Orleans still has Anthony Davis. He had 43 points last night against the Thunder and that was while being matched up against Steven Adams, one of the legaue's better interior defenders. The Pelicans shot 51% from the field as a team, including 13 of 24 from behind the three-point line, and that was against a top five team in defensive efficiency. Minnesota is nowhere close to that as they rank 24th in defensive efficiency (2nd worst among current playoff teams) and give up 105.7 points per game. Furthermore, Davis is going to be getting a little help now. Right after the Cousins injury, the front office made a move, acquiring Nikola Mirotic from Chicago. Mirotic is expected to make his debut tonight. Note that the Pelicans have won outright each of the last four times they've been a dog and that includes games vs. Boston, Houston and OKC!

Minnesota has been a strong home team this year (21-6 SU) and are outscoring visitors by 7.4 points per game. Thursday saw them in a spot where they have typically responded very well, that being a return home off B2B road losses. They beat Milwaukee 108-89 as six-point chalk. They are now a perfect 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS at home off B2B losses this season. That includes a win over these Pelicans back on Jan 6, 116-98. As impressive as that final margin looks, note that the T'wolves were only 1.5-pt favorites in that game. The line is substantially higher here and I simply don't agree with that. With three days off before a visit to Cleveland next week, don't be shocked if Minny gets caught "looking ahead" tonight. 8* New Orleans

8* Indiana (8:15 ET): Indiana has performed somewhat admirably in conference play, covering six of its last eight. However, the schedule has not been kind to them of late as tonight's game vs. Michigan State will be their THIRD in a row vs. Top 25 team! They did stick within the number here in Bloomington vs. Purdue (lost by only seven as 8.5-pt dogs), but then were never really "in it" Tuesday at Ohio State (lost by 15 as 10-pt dogs). Drawing a Michigan State team that absolutely annihilated them last month in East Lansing is probably the last thing the Hoosiers wanted to see for this weekend. But I think there's some substantial value to be had here as there's no way they'll play as poorly in this rematch. Take the points.

Michigan State was "only" a 14.5-pt favorite in the first meeting when they shot 54.2% from the field, including 10 of 20 from three-point range. Sparty was also off a loss there (to Michigan), so it was a case of "wrong place, wrong time" for IU there. The Hoosiers certainly didn't help themselves in that first meeting, shooting only 33.9% from the field and missing 18 of 26 three-point tries. It was a 19-point game at halftime and from there the margin ballooned to 28 by the final buzzer. When you look at the line for tonight, there's been a clear adjustment by the oddsmakers and I would dub it an "overadjustment" quite frankly. 

IU has lost three straight, but when they lost to Michigan State earlier in the season, they were coming in on a three-game win streak. As I mentioned, Sparty was off a loss. Now they've won five in a row as they look to keep pace w/ Purdue and Ohio State atop the Big 10 standings. However, let's be sure to note the Spartans needed to rally to beat Penn State at home Wednesday (trailed by six at halftime). That makes it two in a row where they had to rally back from a deficit that got as high as double digits (trailed Maryland by as many as 13 Sunday). Let's also not discount the sexual assault controversy currently engulfing the Michigan State campus right now and the impact that can have on the coaches and players. Tom Izzo is repeatedly being asked about it and at this point, it's got to be at least a little distracting. This is too many points to lay on the conference road. 8* Indiana

10* Oregon (5:00 ET): As discussed yday, the Pac 12 is not a particularly strong or deep league this year. Right now, we're looking at three, maybe four, teams making the Big Dance. Neither Oregon nor Stanford are currently among that quartet. However, Oregon (a Final Four team last year!) looks like their making a run at it. The Ducks (who lost four starters from LY's team) have won three straight, all as favorites, most recently 66-53 over Cal on Thursday. The Ducks have been a great bet the last few seasons, especially when coming off a conference win, a role they are 29-9 ATS in since 2016. They are also 10-3 ATS as a dog the L3 seasons and here will be traveling to Palo Alto to face a Stanford team that had lost three in a row prior to Thursday. 

The Cardinal snapped their losing skid by beating lowly Oregon State, here at home, two nights ago. They opened a 15-pt lead at halftime and the margin never got closer than six in the second half. Despite struggling of late, Stanford has been solid at the betting window, covering eight of its last nine games overall! But that has a funny way of working itself out as an ATS streak such as that often leads to teams becoming overvalued in the marketplace and that's what we have here. Even at home, I do not believe the Cardinal should be favored in this game. This will also be the first time in three weeks that we find them playing a second game in three days, which is actually a common spot in the Pac 12, but one they've obviously avoided of late. 

I realize that this is also Oregon's second road game in three days, but they covered in this spot the last time they were in it (I remember b/c I was on them!), losing to Arizona by only seven as nine-point dogs. At the time, it was actually the Ducks' third consecutive road game and they were off an upset of Arizona State. Oregon has the better overall record of these two teams, 15-7 vs. 12-11, and really they should have beaten Cal by more on Thursday. They led by double digits most of the way, yet did so despite turning the ball over 17 times and giving up 19 offensive rebounds. Clean up those issues and you have a team that can make a late season run in the Pac 12! 10* Oregon

8* LSU (3:30 ET): The SEC may be king in football, but that's definitely NOT the case in basketball. While the latest projections have as many as SEVEN teams from the conference making the field of 68, none seem like legit Final Four contenders to me. Arkansas is one of those seven projected "in," but the Razorbacks are only 4-5 SU in league play and really can't afford too many more slip ups. They just lost, 80-66, at Texas A&M on Tuesday and have been a complete disaster at the betting window, going just 1-8 ATS vs. the rest of the SEC. That doesn't even include last Saturday's win (but non-cover) at home over Oklahoma State, 66-65 as seven-point chalk. Problem here for the Razorbacks is this is another road game. They are just 1-5 SU and ATS in "true" roadies so far. 

LSU is just 3-6 SU in conference play, but that's the same record as the Texas A&M team that just beat Arkansas. Consider there are currently eight teams currently 4-5 SU or 3-6 SU in SEC play, so it's a real logjam in the middle. Just 1-5 SU and ATS their last six games overall, the Tigers have been struggling. The last week has not gone well for them - at all - as they lost to Auburn and Tennessee by a combined 48 points. But both of those games did take place on the road. Here in Baton Rouge, they are a respectable 8-4 SU and outscoring visitors by 14.3 points per game (shooting better than 50%). Their last home game was a win, 77-65 over Texas A&M, as two-point underdogs. Two of their four home losses have been by three points or less. 

Something else to consider is what LSU did to Arkansas in the first meeting. They went to Fayatteville and prevailed 75-54 as 10-pt underdogs! Arkansas couldn't make a shot to save their lives as they finished the game at only 33.3% from the field and trailed by 20 at halftime. I'd say that's something that's pretty important to note! Now, even though they're now at home, it certainly won't be that easy for LSU here. However, Arkansas is not good defensively as they are giving up 81.7 PPG in conference play. LSU shot 52.7% against them in the first meeting and obviously had its way inside considering that, like the Hogs, they were just 4 of 18 from three-point range. The Tigers will have a deeper bench for this game w/ two players back from suspension.  8* LSU

8* UCF (12:00 ET): Though Cincinnati and Wichita State are the headlines, there's more to the AAC than just those two this season. Right now, both Houston and SMU are considered NCAA Tournament teams, although they are by no means "off the bubble." Then there is UCF. The Golden Knights have some ugly conference losses on their resume, yet are still in position to finish as high as second place in the conference w/ a late surge. Wednesday, here at home, saw them down UConn by a score of 70-61 as 5-pt chalk. Today, they host aforementioned Houston, who is off a loss and playing the second of back to back road games. It was Cincinnati that got the Cougars on Wednesday, 80-70, in a game w/ an 8.5-pt spread. 

To make that late surge, UCF is going to have to overcome some injuries. Definitely Tacko Fall (2nd leading scorer) and possibly Chance McSpadden (5.5 ppg) could be out today. However, it's important to note that neither played against UConn Wednesday. Ironically, a key midseason return (B.J. Taylor) led the way. Taylor, who is now the team's leading scorer after just five games, scored 20 points. He was one of four Knights to score in double figures as the team picked up just its second win EVER over UConn. After giving up the first basket of the game, UCF never trailed again. So it was a pretty impressive victory. As a home dog of three points or less, the Golden Knights have covered 10 of their past 12 (also 10-2 SU).

A loss here would obviously be crushing to Houston's resume, but they have to prove to me that they can win on the road. They are just 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS in "true" road games thus far and as mentioned earlier, just dropped another one this week. It was the third time in the last four road games that the Cougars allowed 80 or more points. It's goes w/o saying that it's pretty tough to win on the road when you're giving up that many. UCF is by no means a prolific offensive team, but they do give up only 59.3 PPG at home this season w/ opponents shooting below 38% from the field! They actually rank #6 nationally in defensive efficiency. One of the few teams ahead of them in that category is Cincinnati, who just beat Houston. The Cougars have failed to cover the L3 times they have been a road fave of -3 or less. 8* UCF

8* Utah (9:00 ET): The Pac 12 isn't particularly strong this season. Outside of Arizona, I really don't see any other team making any "noise" come March. Remember when Arizona State was one of the last remaining unbeaten teams in the country? Right now, no one (outside of the pollsters of course!) considers the Sun Devils even among the top 40 nationally and I'd say there's a decent chance they won't even make the NCAA Tournament! Right now, if you believe the "Bracketologists," only three Pac 12 teams would make the field of 68. Two teams struggling to find their way will meet Friday night in Boulder as Utah comes calling to play Colorado. The Utes swept last year's season series and have beaten the Buffs three straight times overall.

CU hardly comes into tonight in top form. They've lost three in a row, all by nine points or more. Saturday, it was an 80-66 loss at Arizona State where they again failed defensively in the second half. The last two games have seen the Buffaloes give up 98 points atfer halftime. That's way too many. It also didn't help that they failed to get to the FT line (only nine attempts) against ASU and their own top two scorers combined for only 10 points. Obviously, some of those numbers are set to improve upon a return home, but the bottom line is that this team simply isn't very good. Since opening the year 6-0 SU (all six wins at home), the Buffs are just 6-10 SU their L16 games. 

Utah was hoping to enter this game, their third in a row on the road, on a four-game win streak. But they lost by a single point at Arizona on Saturday, 74-73. The Utes rallied back from a deficit that got as high as 13 pts in the second half. That was a tough spot though as two days earlier, they'd gone to overtime and beat Arizona State in Tempe. Arizona simply could not miss as they finished the game at a ridiculous 64.4% from the field, including 10 of 16 from three-point range. I seriously doubt that Colorado can come close to matching those kind of offensive numbers. Interesting to note that CU has only been favored twice in Pac 12 play thus far. This line figures to close around a pick 'em, but still. The Buffaloes have scored more than 71 pts just one time in the previous six games. 8* Utah

10* Toronto (7:35 ET): The Raptors dropped a tough one last night, losing to the Wizards (sans John Wall) by a score of 122-119. That result came despite them shooting 53% from the floor. But they had no answer for Bradley Beal in the 4Q as he scored 27 of his 29 pts there, plus the Wiz were 24 of 26 from the free throw line. Still, if they hope to be the East's top seed, that's a game Toronto needs to win. Tonight, they are back at home where they're 19-4 SU on the season and outscoring teams by more than ten points per game. No team in the league has a better record or point differential on its home floor. The visitor tonight is Portland, who has won and covered four straight, thereby influencing this line to this point where there's value on the home side. Lay the points.

Of Portland's four consecutive wins, three have come against Dallas, the Clippers (day after Griffin trade) and Chicago. They were the betting favorite in all four games. Wednesday saw CJ McCollum score 50 pts in just three quarters (28 of them coming in the 1st) as they routed Chicago 124-108 (led 43-19 after 1Q). Don't look for any kind of repeat performance tonight, however. The Bulls let them shoot 56.1% from the floor, a season-best (for the Blazers). Note that in the first matchup vs. Toronto this season, Portland scored only 85 pts, including a six-point second quarter. It's also interesting to see the Blazers have held three straight opponents below 41.5% from the field. Don't look for that to happen again tonight as Toronto comes in ranked 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.

The Raptors did lead by as many as seven it the first half last night before the Wizards made their comeback. This team doesn't lose B2B games very often though; they are 11-4 SU off a loss, outscoring the opposition by 8.5 points per game. At home, we see their scoring average jump to 112.5 PPG, but as we saw last night, scoring is no issue for this group. Rather the key may be that their defense is giving up only 101.8 PPG at home, a substantial decrease from what they allowed last night and are giving up on the road over the course of the season. This four-game win streak is Portland's longest of the season and they've also lost five straight years here in Toronto. 10* Toronto

8* Under Thunder/Nuggets (10:35 ET): Oddsmakers continually anticipate these two teams will play a high-scoring game against one another, yet (at least recently) that hasn't been the case. The last four head to head meetings, two of those taking place this season, have all stayed Under. In fact, the two meetings this season have both seen less than 200 total pts scored. Oklahoma City, despite having three current/former All-Stars, is overrated offensively. They have recently climbed up to 9th in efficiency, but really it has been the defense (4th) that has kept them in the mix. As for Denver, they were the top Over team last year, but 30-21 Under this season. This number is too high and I'm going Under.

Now the Thunder had gone Over in five straight, but that was before losing to Washington on Tuesday, 102-96. The Wizards didn't even have John Wall in the lineup, so that's a bad loss. I had the Under in that game as OKC shot just 37.5% while holding the Wiz to 38.2% from the field. Out on the road, the Thunder's scoring average does dip down to 104.8 points per game. This is also a bad free throw shooting team (68.9% on the road!). They scored only 42 pts in the 2H Tuesday w/ Russell Westbrook scoring only 13 pts for the game. Obviously, Westbrook should score more here, but what about the rest of the team? Remember guard Andre Roberson is now done for the year and it's not like this is a very deep team. The Under is 14-9 when the Thunder face an opponent that has a winning record. 

Denver is also off a loss, by two to San Antonio. In fact, their previous three games (1 win, 2 losses) have all been decided by two pts or less (five points total). Tonight's O/U line is higher than any of the previous five games. At one point, Denver went Under in seven consecutive games in January. The Under is 16-10 in their home games w/ 211.8 total ppg scored. They typically play MUCH better defense at home, allowing almost six fewer points per game than they do on the road. Problem is the Nuggets are really banged up right now w/ Paul Milsap, Mason Plumlee and possibly Wilson Chandler all out. That will continue to affect them on the offensive end. 8* Under Thunder/Nuggets

8* Gonzaga (9:00 ET): At this time last season, Gonzaga was still unbeaten and would stay that way until the regular season finale when they lost (at home) to BYU. But, as we know, it was the second loss that stung more as it took place in the National Championship Game to North Carolina. This year's team isn't quite as good and as a result, has been flying "under the radar." They're currently ranked 14th, but I believe them to be better than that. Most computer ranking systems, as well as my own personal power rankings, have them inside the Top 10. Thus, despite being a relatively large favorite here, I believe there's some value on the Zags. They've beaten tonight's opponent, San Diego, 18 straight times here in Spokane. How about one more? 

San Diego actually brings some legit credentials into this year's first of two meetings. The Toreros are #1 in the COUNTRY in defending the three-point line and hold opponents to just 39.3% shooting overall (14th). That said, they just allowed 82 pts in a win over Loyola Marymount Saturday, the most points they'd given up in regulation all season. The 89-82 win was a bit of a misleading final as they led by 23 at halftime and by 15 w/ just 80 seconds remaining. Still though, the defensive numbers have to be a concern now that they're going up against an offense that is 5th nationally in FG% (51.2) and makes more than nine three-pointers per game. Here at home, Gonzaga averages a whopping 92 PPG. 

Like USD, Gonzaga dominated by more than final score indicated in their last game. The 'Zags were leading San Francisco by double digits w/ just over six minutes remaining on Saturday, but had to hold on as the Dons cut it to a three-point game. Gonzaga is now 0-5 ATS its L5 games, including a SU loss to St. Mary's, with none of the four wins coming by a margin greater than 16 points. But, their first five WCC victories did come by an average of 35 PPG. I think that the Bulldogs "get back on track" tonight and do what they usually do to San Diego - that's rout them. The last four matchups, all Gonzaga wins and covers, have been decided by 36, 22, 36 and 58 points. That's an average margin of victory of 38 points per game! 8* Gonzaga

10* Wisconsin (8:30 ET): I've talked about this before, but outside of Purdue and Michigan State (two legit Final Four contenders), I'm not entirely sure if we can be certain anyone else in the Big 10 is any real threat. Ohio State has definitely stepped up, but I don't think for a second that the Buckeyes are going to make a deep NCAA Tourney run. The current state of things in the conference has to have both Northwestern and Wisconsin (who meet tonight) "feeling blue." Off their 1st Tournament appearance EVER, N'western came into the season ranked in the top 25. But they've been one of the bigger disappointments as they're only 13-10 SU overall and off a 47-point "effort" at Michigan. I'll be fading the Wildcats tonight.

It's almost one year to the day that N'western came here to Madison and beat Wisconsin, 66-59 as 11.5-pt dogs (happened Feb 2, 2017). The Badgers would get their revenge in the Big 10 Tournament, winning 76-48. But what's interesting here is N'western has not won in Madison, in consecutive seasons, since 1969-70! In fact, before winning two of their last three visits here, they'd dropped 14 in a row from 1997-2012. Tonight marks their third consecutive road game overall and it comes right in the middle of a "Michigan sandwich." The Wildcats will get their shot at revenge against the Wolverines (for the aformentioned loss) this Saturday. Monday saw them shoot just 38% as they failed to hold an early 19-11 lead on the road.

Wisconsin is also off a loss, although at home. It's not just one loss the Badgers are looking to bounce back from, however. They come into tonight on a three-game losing skid and are just 1-6 SU their previous 7 games. They were actually -3.5 vs. Nebraska on Monday (full disclosure: I had them), but it was not to be as the Badgers blew a double-digit 2H lead. They scored only eight points over the game's final nine minutes as the Cornhuskers threw a 1-3-1 zone at them (unlikely wrinkle). Going 16 of 31 from the FT line, including nine misses in the 2H certainly didn't help matters either. But in taking the double digit lead, the Badgers showed me they are more than capable of "holding court" against a team like Northwestern. The Wildcats are just 2-6 SU on the road (-8.5 PPG) and 1-7 SU when priced as an underdog (-13.9 PPG). 10* Wisconsin

10* Valparaiso (8:00 ET): When Valpo moved from the Horizon League to the Missouri Valley, finishing in last place is obviously not what they had in mind. Remember that the Crusaders finished tied for 1st in the Horizon last season. But they've won only 2 of 10 games in their new conference this season w/ the last one coming exactly three weeks ago. Both wins were at home, however, and against better teams than what they'll face tonight. Indiana State has also fallen below .500 overall on the year having dropped B2B games. The Sycamores are also traditionally a very bad road team (8-26 SU L34) while Valpo is still 39-6 SU its last 45 games. Therefore, I'll gladly lay this short number. 

Valpo's very first MVC game was against Indiana State and they lost 73-64 in Terre Haute. Their struggles weren't known back then, but still it's interesting to note the Crusaders were slight (as in one-point) favorites in that game. That makes this price look like a real value by comparison. The difference in the game was ISU going 10 of 18 from three-point range and also having 12 more FT attempts. I don't think either of those things will repeat themselves in this rematch. Valpo is much better defensively here at home, giving up an average of just 61.8 PPG on the year w/ opponents shooting just 37.9% overall and 28.2% from three-point range. Thus, it's not a real surprise that they're 7-3 SU here.

Speaking of three-point shooting, Valpo couldn't "buy one" Saturday at Illinois State as they missed their 14 attempts from behind the arc and finished 3 of 19 in a game they never led. Obviously, there's no way they'll play - or shoot - that poorly again. Meanwhile, Indiana State just lost to a Bradley team that had previously not won on the conference road. A key to me here is Valpo is 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS when favored this season. So they typically take care of business when they're supposed to. They didn't the first time they faced the Sycamores, but I don't see a season sweep taking place here.  10* Valparaiso

8* Syracuse (8:00 ET): As is an annual case, Syracuse finds itself firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble as we head into February. That's what happens when you never play any "true" road games on the non-conference slate, thereby "inflating" the won-loss record, which then inevitably takes a hit once the far more challenging ACC schedule hits. Right now, the Orange have won three straight to get to 15-6 straight up. But of those three wins, two were against Pitt (winless in ACC play) and the other vs. Boston College. Preceeding the current win streak was a four-game losing skid (every loss close). Fortunately for Jim Boeheim, his team will be facing another conference lightweight tonight, that being Ga Tech. This is a game the Orange "can't lose" and I don't think they will. 

Ga Tech has lost four in a row, three of those coming by double digits. The last one, Sunday at home vs. Clemson, was decided by only two points. That was a tough one for the Yellow Jackets as the game wasn't decided until the closing seconds. While competing hard against a ranked team (Clemson #18) looks good on paper, there is no denying that the Yellow Jackets are in poor form right now. They play good defense, but Syracuse is even better on that end of the floor. Also, there's the fact Syracuse won LY's lone matchup, 90-61 at the Carrier Dome. Ga Tech shot just 5 of 20 from three-point range in that game as they couldn't solve the zone defense. I don't see them solving it here either.

Syracuse actually ranks just outside the top 10 (11th) in defensive efficiency nationally. That should serve them well moving forward. Now they are short-handed coming into tonight as the Howard Washington injury leaves them w/ potentially a six-man rotation. Good thing then that for a fourth straight game they are facing a team in the bottom five in the ACC. The Yellow Jackets rank 324th (out of 351 teams) in points per game. Syracuse doesn't shoot the ball particularly well either, but they are 4-0 ATS this season after scoring 60 pts or less the previous game. And as far as the schedule goes, the Orange have played only five games against teams w/ losing records (Ga Tech is 10-11 SU) and won them all. 8* Syracuse

8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): Despite dropping B2B games, Philadelphia actually moved UP in my personal power rankings this week. That movement is largely owed to blowing out the Spurs at the start of this four-game trip, which ends tonight in Brooklyn. A third road game in four nights (and fourth in six) is never an ideal spot, but is particularly troublesome for a team unaccustomed to a price range such as this one. Therefore, this is a pretty clear fade for me. Now Brooklyn just concluded its own road trip w/ a loss to the Knicks last night. It was their fourth loss in a row and 10th in the last 13 games. But, that being said, the Nets are a much better team at home and have also covered 13 of 17 times this season when facing an opponent that averages 106 or more points per game. Take the points.

The first two (one win, one loss) of the Nets' five game trip were both decided by one point. It concluded w/ three consecutive double digit defeats. That's what has created the value here as the Nets are better than what they showed against Milwaukee, Minnesota and New York. An 0-4 record vs. the Knicks this season is a bit curious and in the case of last night, it was a bad first half and three-point shooting that determined the final result. While the Nets were 9 of 36 from behind the arc last night, the Knicks were 13 of 26. This is the 1st meeting of the year w/ Philadelphia. So while an 0-9 (straight up) record vs. division opponents is worrisome, it's not really applicable here.

Despite the three straight DD defeats, Brooklyn is still 25-15 ATS as an underdog this year. The Sixers are obviously not road favorites, particularly of this size, all that often. Tonight marks just the eighth instance of them having to lay points away from home this season. One thing that I think works to the underdog's advantage here is that Philly plays at a pretty similar (uptempo) pace. While the Sixers absolutely will improve upon their hideous 2 of 26 three-point shooting from the last game, they also allow over 108 PPG on the road this season. I just don't see them scoring enough to compensate for that and an outright loss certainly wouldn't surprise me either. 8* Brooklyn 

8* Iowa (9:00 ET): Both of these Big 10 squads are really struggling right now. Minnesota has lost six of seven - both straight up and against the spread. That's after a 13-3 SU start. Iowa has dropped six of eight and never really even got "out of the box" this season. They're also just 2-6 ATS in those eight games. So something will have to give tonight in Carver-Hawkeye. As discussed yday, the Big 10 is pretty top heavy. I see this being only a four-bid league in March. The only team Iowa is ahead of right now is Illinois and that could change w/ another loss. One thing the Hawkeyes can do is score as they average 84.0 PPG at home. They did win their last home game, 85-67 over Wisconsin, and I think they win this one as well. Lay the short number. 

It's been a tumultuous season for Minnesota w/ the Reggie Lynch situation and I don't think it's any coincidence that things have hit the skids since that came to light. Four of their last six losses have been by double digits. They just lost at home to Northwestern, 77-69. exactly one week ago. They had the weekend off, but I doubt that can cure what ails them. The Gophers have a real depth issue right now, which was apparent down the stretch vs. Northwestern when they blew a double digit lead. HC Richard Pitino has already had to use five different starting lineups in 10 conference games. Who knows what he'll trot out tonight?

Iowa gave up 98 points in its last game, a loss at Nebraska. They allowed the Cornhuskers to shoot 57.7% overall, including 11 of 19 from three-point range. Nebraska also got to attempt 36 free throws. No way Minnesota approaches any of those numbers tonight. After all, the Gophers are shooting less than 40% in conference play! Iowa shoots 50% at home and if they can play their style of game, they should win this one going away. 8* Iowa 

10* Under Thunder/Wizards (7:05 ET): John Wall is unlikely to play here for the Wizards as that definitely puts them at a disadvantage when facing a talented team like the Thunder. However, even at full strength, I'm not too sure I'd trust OKC either in this spot. They are a money-burning 16-27 ATS as a favorite this season w/ 19 outright losses. If not for the Cavs, that record would look a lot worse. One thing is for sure and that's Thunder games have been a lot more high scoring of late. They've gone Over in five straight and those games have averaged an astounding 237 PPG. But I certainly look for that number to start coming down. One of those games, a 121-112 win, came against these Wizards. But I look for the rematch to be a lot more low scoring. Take the Under.

The O/U line has been raised significantly from last week's meeting in OKC. That game saw a really high scoring second half as the Thunder led 54-40 at halftime. Russell Westbrook finished w/ 46 points (season high) and the fourth quarter was particularly ridiculous as the teams combined for 77 points (39-38 Thunder). Westbrook isn't likely to match that point total tonight. Note he's been taking fewer three pointers of late. Speaking of the three-point line, Washington went 16 of 35 from behind the arc in that game. Don't look for a repeat of that either here tonight.

Washington bounced back from the loss to OKC by beating Atlanta 129-104 over the weekend. Despite not having Wall, they assisted on 40 of their 49 field goals made. But the Hawks are a bad team and the Thunder won't be scored on as easily. Something you may not know about the Thunder is that they rank sixth in the league in offensive efficiency. The Wiz had a very up and down road trip (five games). Yes, they shot 57.6% against the Hawks, but that was also two games after they shot 30.6% and scored only 75 pts in a loss to Dallas. They'll end up somewhere in between tonight. Defensively, I expect them to start improving as well. They've allowed an average of 113.6 PPG the L5 games, which is noticeably above their season long average. This would rank on the high end of O/U lines for both teams, looking at the broad spectrum for the season. 10* Under Thunder/Wizards

10* Wisconsin (9:00 ET): As top heavy as the Big 10 is this year, it sure is strange not to see Wisconsin in - or anywhere near - the mix. The Badgers have declined significantly from their "heyday" under HC Bo Ryan as this Greg Gard coached team is banged up and floundering at 10-12 SU overall. Last week brought not one, but two double digit defeats - at the hands of Iowa and Michigan State - although both were on the road. Tonight, the Badgers return to Madison and are slight favorites over a Nebraska team desperate to strengthen its somewhat weak resume. The Cornhuskers are 16-8 SU overall, but not really considered a legit at-large candidate for the Big Dance in March. This is a revenge game for Wisconsin as they lost by four down in Lincoln earlier this month. 

Only five Big 10 teams currently have winning records in conference play and Nebraska is one of them at 7-4 SU. The Cornuskers' four conference losses have all come against fellow teams w/ winning records. Three of them have been by single digits, the lone exception taking place at Michigan State back on Dec 3 when they lost by 29. Two of their non-conf losses were to Kansas and Creighton and it's been an inability to beat any of the top teams on the schedule that likely precludes them from at-large consideration. They're also 12-1 SU at home, but only 2-6 SU on the road (including neutral site games). They have been a bit of a covering machine lately, going 8-1 ATS in January, so it will seem "odd" to some that they are the underdog here.

When Wisconsin lost down in Lincoln earlier this month, the big key was the free throw line. Going only 4 of 10 from the charity stripe is really bad and made even worse by the fact Nebraska was 21 of 28. That was basically the difference in the game. Injuries have also really derailed the Badgers' season. They badly miss both Kobe King and D'Mitrik Trice, both of whom are done for the season. However, in Madison, I still believe they are worth a shot - particularly in this price range. Nebraska won't shoot the ball as well as they did Saturday (57%) against Iowa. Nor will Wisconsin shoot as poorly as they did Friday at Michigan State (36.2%). Also, the one extra day to prepare is key for the home team here. 10* Wisconsin

10* Over Heat/Mavericks (8:35 ET): By today's standards, this is a really low total for a NBA game. Rarely do we see an O/U line sub-200 pts anymore. Of course, it's not like this instance isn't w/o some justification as neither Miami nor Dallas is any kind of offensive juggernaut, plus - tempo-wise - both teams play at some of the slowest paces in the entire league (going by # of possessions per game). The Heat's last three games have all season both they and their opponent fail to score 100 pts. The Mavs have gone four consecutive games w/o hitting the century mark themselves. That all being said, the number is too low and I'm going Over. Both teams' total PPG average for the season exceeds the O/U line here.

Miami had lost two in a row, one of them to lowly Sacramento, before beating Charlotte Saturday night by a score of 95-91. It was a game where they had to rally from 15 down despite holding the Hornets (who could be cursed) to just 34.5% shooting for the game. The Heat outscored them 24-13 in the fourth quarter. I have my doubts about this Heat team considering they have a negative point differential despite being 28-21 SU overall. Looking at this game in a vaccum, however, I just can't see it being as low-scoring as the L3 games, all of which had O/U lines of 200.5 or higher. Again, four straight games of neither side scoring 100+ pts is very rare in today's game. I can't see it happening here for Miami.

Dallas started the season right near the bottom in offensive efficiency. They have improved though, now ranking a solid 17th in that category. However, they haven't shot the ball well recently and are 6-1 Under the L7 games. Their last game was just the opposite of Miami's as they blew a fourth quarter lead in Denver and lost 91-89. The Mavs have now scored 98, 97, 93 and 89 pts the last four games. Similar to the Heat (and you can call this the "just due" factor if you'd like), I just can't see such a string of low-scoring performances continuing. When these teams met for the 1st time this season, the final score was 113-101 (in favor of Miami) as both teams shot better than 50 percent and the Heat were at a ridiculous 63.9%. While they won't be that hot (pun intended!) this time around, that will be counteracted by the fact the first matchup saw just 17 free throw attempts - total! That number could easily double this time around. 10* Over Heat/Mavs

8* The Citadel (6:00 ET): Let's get it right out in the open that The Citadel is not a good team as you don't get to be a home dog of this magnitude by playing quality basketball over any period of time. Of course, the other side typically has to be pretty good as well and sure enough East Tennessee State is one of 10 teams nationally to be 7-0 SU or better in conference play. The SoCon leaders enter this game at 9-0 SU in conference play, 17-3 SU overall and inside my top 75 overall. That said, this spread is still too high. It's the Buccaneers second road game in a three-day span, plus it'll be just the third time in conference play that they've been asked to lay double digits. Take the points. 

Last year's two meetings did not go well for The Citadel as they lost by 21 and 44 points. But at least they come into this tussle w/ a little bit of "momentum." That stems from an outright win (on the road!) Saturday over Mercer as 16-pt underdogs. The Bulldogs scored 51 pts in the 2H to claim the two-point win, 76-74, snapping a 13-game series losing streak to the Bears. At one point, The Citadel went on a 26-3 run, enabling them to overcome a halftime deficit and take a comfortable lead themselves. Now, the question is how do they follow up? They've only won B2B games one time all season, but a SU win is probably out of the question anyway. However, I'll point to the fact the Bulldogs are only being outscored by about six points per game over the course of the year and have never been a home dog of more than 15 pts the L3 seasons!

East Tennessee State has not lost since 12.16 at Xavier when they only fell by two points. They're ripped off 12 straight wins since and the majority of them have not been close. Yet, their PPG differential for the year is "only" +11.9 per game. They've been a bit of a covering machine so far as a 13-3-2 ATS record is the best win percentage in the country at the betting window among teams that have played at least four lined games. But the only two times they've been a double digit favorite in conference play were at home and this will be only the third time in the L3 seasons that they have been asked to lay 12.5 or more on the road. One of the previous two was here last season, but I just don't see a blowout taking place again tonight. 8* The Citadel

10* Toronto (6:05 ET): The Lakers come into tonight having won four consecutive games - all as underdogs. I was on them in their last win, a matchup w/ Chicago that I thought was badly mispriced. LA won that one 108-103 as four-point pups. That followed wins over Indiana, New York and Boston, all of which were at home. Now its second straight road game and North of the Border against a Raptors team eager to take the floor after suffering a rare home defeat. Toronto fell to 17-4 SU on its home floor w/ a loss to Utah on Friday. It was a poor offensive effort as they scored only 93 pts on 38.9% shooting. Fortunately here, they'll be taking on a team that gives up 112 PPG on the road. Lay the points.

The Raptors are still #5 in the league in offensive efficiency and average 112.1 PPG at home. So, again, I expect a real bounce back effort on the offensive end of the floor. Three of their four home losses have come this month, but all were by four points or less. This team is also playing pretty good defense lately, holding four of the previous five opponents below 100 points. Those five opponents have shot barely over 40% against them. The Lakers have shot nearly 50% from the floor their last five games, something I do not see being maintained. 

Toronto has beaten the Lakers five straight times, including 101-92 back in late October at Staples Center. It was a six-point spread for that matchup, so it looks like we're getting some real decent value on the favorite in the rematch. The Lakers last two wins have both been close, so this isn't exactly a dominant run that they're on.They are still a 7-15 SU team on the road and remember that Lonzo Ball remains out (indefinitely) w/ a sore left knee. 10* Toronto

10* Clemson (6:00 ET): Clemson is off a humiliating 61-36 loss here, but it was to Virginia and right now the Hoos are making a lot of teams look bad. It's a severe drop in class in terms of opponent for the Tigers here as they go from facing the best team in the ACC to one of the conference's weaker teams. Georgia Tech has lost three in a row, a streak that began when Virginia held them to only 48 pts. Since then, the Yellow Jackets have dropped a couple road games - at North Carolina and Florida State. All three losses have been by double digits. In spite of their Virginia result, I still view Clemson as potentially a Top 25 team. This is a short number to lay and I'll play accordingly. 

It's important to note that Clemson has not lost B2B games this season. They opened 14-1 SU and have since alternated wins and losses. All three ACC losses have come on the road, one of them by a single point at North Carolina State. (They also lost at North Carolina, in addition to Virginia). As a favorite, they are 11-2 straight up and 8-5 against the spread. I find it almost impossible to believe their field goal percentage won't increase dramatically from the last game when they shot just 31.6% against Virginia. For the year, they are shooting 47.3% from the field. 

Georgia Tech usually does a decent job of defending, but the last game saw them allow 88 pts on nearly 60 percent shooting. That was to Florida State, who is a pretty comparable team to Clemson in terms of where I have them ranked nationally. Believe it or not, but a win here and Clemson would be tied w/ Duke for third place in the ACC. Georgia Tech resides near the bottom, with only two teams - Wake Forest and Pitt - having fewer wins. The Yellow Jackets have upset Clemson twice in the previous two seasons, so this isn't a game the Tigers will take lightly. 10* Clemson 

8* Northern Iowa (4:00 ET): It's certainly not been your typical season in Cedar Falls where Northern Iowa comes in near the bottom of the Missouri Valley, ahead of only conference newbie Valparaiso. Here, the Panthers travel to play the 1st place team in the MVC, Loyola Chicago, which is NOT something I thought I'd be saying before the start of the season. Yet the Ramblers are 17-4 SU overall (7-2 SU vs. MVC). They come into Sunday on a six-game SU and ATS win streak. Interesting is how they've had Northern Iowa's number the past few seasons, going not only 5-0 ATS against them, but 4-1 straight up as well. But they were the favorite in only one of those five games. Earlier this season, they went to Cedar Falls and pulled an upset, 56-50, as five-point dogs. 

Northern Iowa at one point had lost seven in a row and didn't cover a single spread during that time. However, more recently, they've "righted the ship" a bit by winning three of their last four. Earlier in the week, they won at home, 83-72 over Illinois State as 6.5-pt favorites. Their last three wins have all been at home while they still don't have a "true" road win to speak of this season. But let's note the Panthers have outscored their opponents over the course of the season. They are allowing only 62.2 PPG and that should be enough to keep them in any contest. This is the most points they've gotten against any opponent since facing Villanova back in November. 

Loyola has been favored by more than two points just twice during this 6-0 SU/ATS run. Admittedly, they just destroyed Drake, winning on the road by a score of 80-57. What's amazing about that final score is the Ramblers were actually trailing at halftime! In fact, with 9:19 left in the game, the score was tied 51-51. From that point forward, it was all Loyola obviously as they'd go on a 22-2 run and end up shooting 56.7% for the game. I don't see that being repeated today. Yes, the Ramblers did beat Florida back when the Gators were ranked #5 in the country and thus deserve to be taken quite seriously. But, to me, this sets up as a game where we're going to get UNI's best and that should be enough for at least the cover. 8* Northern Iowa

8* Wake Forest (8:00 ET): Tip your cap to the job being done by David Padgett at Louisville as this season easily could have gone off the rails given the embarrassing way it started w/ Rick Pitino having to leave in disgrace. Padgett has the Cardinals at 15-5 SU coming into today, but the squad is off a loss (in overtime) earlier in the week. They fell to Miami 78-75 in what was quite the competitive affair. Full disclosure: I was on Miami there and did not get the cover as the Hurricanes were 4.5-pt favorites. Laying points to what is - on paper - pretty clearly an inferior ACC foe becomes a dangerous spot, however. Wake Forest is coming off games vs. Virginia and Duke and certainly won't be intimidated. Take the points.

At the betting window, these squads have been trending in very different directions. While Louisville is 6-1 ATS its last seven games, Wake Forest has failed to cover six in a row (also 0-6 SU). It's not as if the Demon Deacons haven't been competitive though. Only two of those six losses came by a margin greater than 10 pts and both were vs. Duke. They also lost by only four at North Carolina earlier in the year. Turnovers really hurt WF Tuesday at home vs. Duke as they committed 21 of them. It also didn't help that they were just 5 of 20 from the three-point line. They did outrebound Duke though and will have a chance to do the same to L'ville, who was outrebounded by Miami Wednesday.

The recent ATS records are a little misleading in my estimation. We've already been over how Wake Forest may not be covering, but they're not getting blown out either. With Louisville, it's just the opposite. They may be covering, but they're hardly blowing teams out. Four of their five ACC wins have been by eight pts or fewer, the exception coming against last place Pitt. With two teams having recent stretches of close games, it just seems logical to take the points. Wake Forest won LY's only meeting (in Winston-Salem). Louisville, to this point, has avoided all of the ACC heavyweights, so I take their conference record w/ a grain of salt. As for Wake, they've already played Duke, North Carolina and Virginia a total of four times. 8* Wake Forest

10* Charlotte (7:35 ET): The Hornets continued to prove (at least to me!) that they are better than their record w/ a double-digit win over Atlanta last night. (I also won w/ the Over on that game!). That may not sound like much, but it continues the fact that this team has outscored its opponents this season despite a 20-27 SU record. Now the road has been unkind w/ a 6-13 SU record, but note they're only being outscored in those games by 1.5 PPG! On the flip side, we have a Miami team that is 27-21 SU despite being outscored by its opponents. The Heat are only 12-10 SU at home and that comes w/ a negative point differential as well. These two division foes are a lot closer than what the standings say and thus I'm taking the points. 

Really, what accounts for the difference in the standings between these two is the fact Miami is 3-0 SU/ATS in head to head play. All three wins have been by five points or fewer w/ the last one coming by a single point. That last meeting took place in Charlotte exactly one week ago and the Hornets came in w/ a massive scheduling edge as they'd been off the previous two days while Miami was playing the second night of a back to back (off a loss to Brooklyn) and for a fourth time in five days. That loss is part of a historically inept 0-14 SU record in games decided by three points or less over the L2 seasons for Charlotte. Eventually, that record is going to shoot up to the mean.

Since beating the Hornets last Saturday, the Heat have lost two in a row and averaged only 89 pts in doing so. Monday's loss in Houston came at the end of a long road trip and thus can certainly be excused. But losing at home to Sacramento is bad, no matter how you want to slice it. Miami blew a 12-pt fourth quarter lead to the worst team in the league. As a favorite this season, the Heat are only 7-13 ATS. Consider that Charlotte has lost only four times in the New Year and three of those have been by five points or less. I still believe the Hornets have a run in them! 10* Charlotte

10* Dayton (4:00 ET): The Atlantic 10 "ain't what it used to be" as right now Rhode Island is running away with things. Other than the Rams, there may not be another NCAA Tourney team in the field, unless someone is able to win the Conf Tourney that is. Certainly, the two teams in question here have no other option than cutting down the nets next month at Barclays Center. Dayton is who I'm looking at in this one as they are coming off a one-point win over Davidson on Tuesday. Their opponent, St. Louis, is off a one-point home loss to VCU. Those razor thin margins really don't mean much as - clearly - either team could very easily be off a win or loss. But Dayton has so thoroughly dominated the Billikens in recent years, that I can't look past that. Take the points.

Note that the final margin over Davidson got to one only when the Wildcats made a "meaningless" three-pointer w/ 3.3 seconds remaining. I use the word meaningless in quotes b/c that basket actually cost Dayton the cover (were -2!). The Flyers have now failed to cover three in a row, the other two games being double digit losses to Rhode Island and St. Joe's. Maybe that one win over Davidson doesn't impress you, but it should as the Wildcats are a top 25 nationally in offensive efficiency and Dayton held them to just 64 pts. The Flyers certainly have had no issue defending St. Louis recently, sweeping the previous two season series, never giving up more than 63 pts in any of the four meetings. Three of the wins have come by at least 20 points. 

St. Louis is right w/ Dayton in the middle of the A-10, but is one game worse in the conference standings and has one more loss overall. However, the latest loss may be a difficult one to "get over" as the game w/ VCU went to overtime and saw the Billikens blow a halftime lead. Not only that, but the game only went to OT after VCU hit a three-pointer at the end of regulation. Suffering such a deflating loss can certainly have an effect on a team its next time out, especially one as mediocre as this. The Billikens were going for their third straight victory when they met VCU as they'd previously beaten Duquesne and UMass. A key here is St. Louis is just 1-4 SU/ATS the L5x it has been a home favorite of three points or less. 10* Dayton

8* Duke (2:00 ET): What a matchup we have here as two of the top five teams in the country square off. In my own opinion, there are five teams better than the rest of the field this season - the other three being Villanova, Purdue and Michigan State. So this is a rare time I actually agree w/ the pollsters. Virginia has yet to lose an ACC game as they come into Saturday at 18-1 SU overall (8-0 ACC), that lone loss coming in Morgantown, WV. That, not coincidentally was the only other time before today that they had been an underdog all season. This game taking place in Cameron Indoor is huge for Duke, who is 10-0 SU at home this year with the margin of victory approaching 30 points per game! Lay the points. 

Coming into Saturday, there are still 12 teams that own conference records of 7-0 (SU) or better. Running your entire conference slate is difficult to do, so targeting some of these teams might be a prudent manuever over the next month. In the case of Virginia, they are rolling. They've covered six of their last seven games, the only exception being a seven-point win over Syracuse. All other wins have come by double digits. The last one may have been the most impressive of all. They beat Clemson, the 18th ranked team in the country mind you, 61-36. Yes, you read that correctly. The Hoos held Clemson to 36 points on 31.7% shooting. They did so w/o their best defender, Isaiah Wilkins. Even more impressive is that UVA actually trailed 23-16 in the first half. But Clemson would score just 13 points over the game's final 26 1/2 minutes! 

However, keeping Duke in check in going to be a much taller order. The Blue Devils rank #2 in the country in offensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and average 91.6 PPG. At home, they are averaging 96 PPG! So, clearly, something will have to give here. Being that the game is in Durham, I just have to favor Duke. They have scored at least 80 pts in 16 consecutive games. I doubt they'll be able to hit that threshold this afternoon, but they will clearly be the top test Virginia has faced all season. Now the same could be said the other way as well, but Duke is 11-3 SU all-time in top 5 matchups here at home. This is also Virginia's third straight road game and they may be w/o Wilkins again. 8* Duke

8* Baylor (12:00 ET): Today's slate is chock full of Big 12 vs. SEC matchups, an annual event to determine "conference superiority." I can't imagine that you'd get any arguement that the Big 12 isn't the deeper of the two leagues in 2018. Yet, Baylor finds itself as a pretty substantial underdog today at Florida. That probably has a lot to do w/ the fact the Bears have dropped B2B games as well as four of their past five. However, be aware that three of those losses were by seven points or less. As for Florida, they too are off a loss, here in Gainesville to South Carolina as 10.5-pt favorites on Wednesday. Baylor also has a bit of a "hidden edge" here in that they've had two extra days to prepare. I'm taking the points. 

 Last we saw Baylor was Monday as they hosted Kansas State and lost as a small favorite, 90-83. That was a crippling loss as it dropped the Bears to 2-6 SU in Big XII play while at the same time strengthening Kansas State's own NCAA Tournament resume. A win here might be needed for the Bears to impress the selection committee as they're tied for last in the conference. But they did go 10-2 SU vs. the non-conference, including a win over Creighton. Their only non-conf losses were to Xavier and Wichita State. Baylor is a lock to play better defensively tonight than they did on Monday where they allowed K-State to shoot over 57% from the field. Remember, despite that insane percentage, they still only lost by seven. Over the L3 seasons, the Bears are 9-1 ATS after allowing 80+ pts the previous game. 

Florida was perhaps "still celebrating" (its big win at Kentucky last Saturday) when it got upset by South Carolina on Wednesday. Though they led by nine early in the second half, the Gators had no answer for the Gamecocks going 11 of 21 from three-point range. Defending the three-point line has been an issue all season for Florida as they rank dead last in the SEC in that department and a woeful 296th in the country. After climbing into the Top 25 this week, look for it to be a short stay for the Gators. 8* Baylor

10* Oakland (9:00 ET): Valparaiso's defection to the Missouri Valley left a huge void atop the Horizona League entering the year and, right now, two teams are looking to fill it. Both Wright State and Northern Kentucky have started 7-1 SU in conference play w/ the latter's lone loss coming to the former. But we're targeting the Norse here tonight as they host Oakland in what is a revenge spot for the underdog. Oakland was the betting favorite (three points) in the first meeting, at home, which they lost 87-83. Much has changed since that time. Namely, NKU has emerged as a top team in the Horizon w/ the only loss coming to Wright State on Jan 11 (were -10.5 in that game). For Oakland, the loss to NKU was the middle game of what would end up being a three-game skid. But they've since rallied to win four straight coming into tonight. Take the points.

For both teams, this is the first time taking the court since Saturday. Oakland won on the road, beating Detroit 92-86 as nine-point chalk. Leading scorer Kendrick Nunn poured in a career-best 38 pts (8th game w/ 30+ this season!) and the Golden Grizzlies led 50-29 at the half. Northern Kentucky also won on the road, beating Green Bay 77-65 as 11-pt chalk. They too enjoyed a lead larger than the final score most of the way. Both teams are off B2B road wins here, but the fact Oakland is playing a third straight away from home is counteracted by the fact this is also just their third game in 14 days. Northern Kentucky played three games last week.

In the season's first meeting, Oakland led at halftime (47-41) and shot the ball well (52.8%). Looking at the numbers, it's actually pretty tough to explain how the Golden Grizzlies lost! They were outrebounded pretty severely, 38-25, and that obviously led to more second chance pts for NKU. But other than that, it was an even game. Oakland has averaged 85.4 points over the L5 games, making them quite dangerous in the underdog role. Tonight actually marks the 1st time they've been a dog - all season - in Horizon League play! They are also 8-2 ATS the L3 seasons when taking the court on five or six days rest. 10* Oakland

10* LA Lakers (8:05 ET): I still am not one to "believe in the Bulls," particularly as a favorite. As I've discussed previously, the second quarter of the season went dramatically different for Chicago compared to the first. The team opened the season by going 3-20 SU its first 23 games, but over the next 23, they turned in a pretty impressive 15-8 SU record. But it speaks to just how poor those first 23 games were that they still rank 3rd from the bottom in net efficiency for the season, ahead of only Phoenix and Sacramento. I would expect the third quarter of the season to be better than the first, but also worse than the second. Sure enough, they come into tonight off B2B losses, the last one being an instance where I successfully played against them. I'll do it again here.

The Lakers will be the visitors in the Windy City this evening and they arrive on a three-game win streak. So much for LaVar Ball and his stupid comments about Luke Walton! The Lakers have pulled three consecutive upsets, granted all at home, but the last one came against Boston in a national TV showdown. Now you might say that a letdown could be in order, but be aware that they've had the last two days off. The win over the Celtics was stunning in the sense that the Lakers were able to score 30+ points in each of the final three quarters against arguably the top defensive team in the league. They would have won by a greater margin than one point if not for some pretty bad free throw shooting (especially down the stretch). LA isn't bad defensively in its own right, ranking 11th in efficiency.

The defensive end could prove to be the difference here as both teams rank in the bottom three in offensive efficiency. But Chicago is only 25th on defense. That gap played out in the season's first meeting, a 103-94 LA win at home. The Lakers actually rallied back from a 14-pt halftime deficit in that one. I don't see them falling into any kind of similar hole tonight. Chicago is playing its fourth game in seven nights and one of those previous three (Monday at New Orleans) went into double overtime. Returning home after a three-game trip may very well have them in the worse spot and I just wouldn't want to lay points w/ a team that has been favored only seven times previously this season. 10* LA Lakers

8* Toronto (7:35 ET): Because of all their playoff shortcomings, the Raptors are probably never going to the amount of respect they truly deserve. Now, that could change were they to make some sort of run this year. Cleveland is down and I happen to think they (meaning Toronto) are better than Boston. So it could happen. Over the previous two seasons, it's Toronto, not Cleveland or Boston, that has posted the best net efficiency rating in the Eastern Conference. For a team that is 17-3 SU at home w/ an impressive point differential to boot, tonight's line sure looks a little low given they're playing a sub-.500 foe in its third road game in five nights. I'll gladly lay the points "North of the Border."

Utah is the visitor I alluded to and they are in off a minor upset of Detroit Wednesday night. But let's remember that the Pistons are struggling - mightily - of late and the game before that saw the Jazz lose to lowly Atlanta. Utah plays at one of the slowest tempos in the league and is not coincidentally one of the lowest scoring teams in the league. Unless they are able to slow down the tempo tremendously, I think they simply lack the firepower to keep up tonight. It's not as if the Jazz are a good road team; their record away from home is 6-19 straight up and they're getting outscored by 6.4 points per game. And most teams aren't as good at home as Toronto is. The Raptors are 17-3 SU at the Air Canada Center w/ a point differential of +11.6 PPG.

Toronto just snapped a four-game ATS slide w/ a win and cover Wednesday over the team that just beat Utah, Atlanta. The Raptors won, on the road, 108-93 as 6.5-pt chalk. Two of their three home losses this year came in a three-game span earlier this month - to Miami (who was red hot at the time) and then Golden State (who needs no introduction). I simply believe that Utah is substantially worse than Toronto and that this game should have a double digit spread attached to it. I haven't even mentioned how the Jazz's win in Detroit came in overtime (after they tied the game w/ a layup in the final second of regulation) or that the Pistons shot the ball woefully in that contest. The Raptors are substantially better on both ends of the floor and should roll here. 8* Toronto