10* Over Creighton/St. John’s (12:00 ET): Very quietly, Creighton is a team peaking at the right time. While the Bluejays may not be garnering much national attention, they have made a pretty clear case to be considered one of the top 15 teams in America and perhaps the best in the Big East. They’ve won 9 of their last 10 games including a current five-game win streak where they’ve covered the spread in every game. The primary reason for their success is an offense which ranks 5th nationally in efficiency. 

St. John’s isn’t having as much success as Creighton this season, but they can still score. Especially when they play at home. The Johnnies are averaging 77.2 PPG here, but that hasn’t done them much good lately as they are coming off losses at both Seton Hall and Villanova. Over the L5 games, the Red Storm have permitted their opponents to shoot 48.4% from the field. Creighton is obviously going to present a very tough challenge considering they come in averaging 78.2 PPG for the season.

I’ve established that both teams are capable of scoring plenty of points on any given night. For further evidence of that, let’s look at the last time they met, which was back on Feb 8th in Omaha. Creighton won that game 94-82 as an 8.5-pt favorite and it obviously sailed well past the total. I know it’s been “tough sledding” of late for the Johnnie’s w/o leading scorer Heron, but they’ll do enough offensively here for another Over. 10* Over Creighton/St. John’s

10* New Mexico (10:00 ET): Utah State is trying to make sure that TWO Mountain West teams get in the NCAA Tournament (San Diego State the other) as they have won six in a row, the last three all coming by double digits. But while the last 10 days have seen the Aggies prevail by scores of 78-58 (over Wyoming) and 94-56 (San Jose State), both of those games were at home. They also were against the two weakest teams in the conference. Tonight they visit Albuquerque where the home team has lost only three times. 

When it hosted San Diego State back on January 29th, New Mexico was undefeated at home (13-0). They were blown out in that game, 85-57, and have subsequently nosedived with six more losses in the last seven games. They are now 14-3 SU at home and the reason for the downturn has to do with injuries and players leaving the program altogether. Still, you should expect the remaining Lobos to “show up” for this final game of the regular season. 

The Lobos still average 83.2 PPG at home. The game vs. San Diego State marked the only time they were getting more than a single point here in “The Pit.” I think Utah State is due for an “off-night” here as they get ready for the Mt West Tournament, an event where they must at least make the final. They’re just 3-6 ATS on the road. 10* New Mexico

10* Golden State (9:05 ET): The nightmare season for Golden State will finally get some positive news tomorrow when former MVP Steph Curry makes his return to the lineup. But first is a game tonight at Phoenix, who just lost as a nine-point favorite last night. Curry’s return couldn’t come at a more needed time for the Warriors, who have lost eight in a row and routinely been blown out in doing so. But one of their two ATS wins in those L8 games came on this floor 17 days ago. Tonight’s spread is strangely larger. 

I realize the Warriors have been very bad since picking up the ATS win at Phoenix with the last four losses all coming by 14 points or more. But the Suns are not very familiar with this kind of price range and last night showed that as they lost outright (here at home) to a struggling Pistons squad. The Suns are now just 3-10 ATS their L13 games overall and they’ve dropped B2B games SU here at home. Going back to MLK Day, Phoenix has been a favorite just five times and lost four of those games outright! 

The Suns haven’t been good on the second night of a back to back either, going just 4-6 SU/ATS in that situation this season. Furthermore, they are just 11-20 SU and 11-19-1 ATS in home games. In addition to covering at Phoenix earlier this month, the Warriors also beat the Suns right after X-Mas. 10* Golden State

10* Over Hornets/Raptors (7:35 ET): Charlotte picked up a rare win Wednesday by beating the Knicks 107-101. Despite that, and the fact they pulled off three additional upsets surrounding the All-Star Break, things remain rather dire for the Hornets as they own the 4th worst point differential in the league and have dropped 21 of their last 28 games overall. This is a bad basketball team, a point we made abundantly clear last Saturday when we faded them at home vs. Kyrie Irving-less Brooklyn. The Hornets lost 115-86. 

Toronto, on the other hand, is playing great. The reigning NBA Champs did just get humbled here at home by Milwaukee (Eastern Conf Finals preview?), but before that they had won 17 of 18 games. Interestingly enough, the Raptors were held under 100 points in the only two games they have lost since mid-January. Clearly, we don’t see that happening here as Charlotte gives up 110 PPG and are a poor 25th in defensive efficiency. It’s a virtual lock that the Raptors will improve upon the 35.2% shooting we saw vs. the Bucks. 

The champs are averaging 116.5 PPG at home this season, so what happened Tuesday vs. Milwaukee should be considered a total anomaly. It was a game between the two top teams in defensive efficiency as well. This one should be a lot different. Charlotte may rank near the bottom of the league in PPG, but I see them scoring enough to help send this game Over the total. Seven of the last eight times these teams have met, the Over has cashed. It was a 112-110 Toronto win in Charlotte last month. 10* Over Hornets/Raptors

10* Davidson (7:00 ET): Dayton has emerged as a national force this season by winning 26 of its 28 games. The Flyers currently rank #4 in the country and unlike a San Diego State team that just lost its first game this season, I’ve got this team more in line with the pollsters. Right now, the only other team in the country w/o a conference loss is New Mexico State and they play in the rather hideous Big West. 

I’m not sure what it says about the rest of the A-10 that no one has been able to beat the Flyers yet. What’s interesting here is that Dayton was NOT even the preseason pick to win the conference. They were pegged for third behind VCU and Davidson. The latter is who comes calling Friday and lately the Wildcats have FINALLY begun to flash the form that made them a choice to finish ahead of Dayton this year. They have won 8 of 11 including a very impressive 74-49 beatdown of LaSalle earlier this week.

Looking at the only three games Davidson has lost over the last month or so, one was a 4OT game and another was decided by a single point. You’d have to go all the way back to early December to find a game that the Wildcats lost by more points than what the oddsmakers are calling for tonight. While it’s been a disappointing season for them, this will be treated as the “Game of the Year.” Dayton’s last four wins have all been by single digits. 10* Davidson

10* Golden State (10:35 ET): The Warriors get a break here as LeBron James is sitting this one out for the Lakers due to a sore groin. Certainly, the Dubs will take any break they can get at this point as they enter Thursday w/ the worst record in the league at 12-46 SU. It has been a precipitous fall for the team that has represented the Western Conference in each of the L5 NBA Finals. That’s thanks to injuries, but hopefully now they can take advantage of an opponent missing its best player.

We shouldn’t need to go through what James means to the Lakers. With the decline of Golden State, the Lakers have taken their spot atop the Western Conference w/ James playing in 54 out of a possible 56 games. LeBron matched a season-high w/ 40 points in Tuesday’s win over New Orleans. Anthony Davis is still bothered by a sore left elbow. The bottom line here is that I’m banking on the Lakers not taking this game very seriously.

Despite what I think the mindset will be for LA tonight, we’re still able to grab a boatload of points. The Warriors are at home where they only lost by five to the Lakers earlier this month and that was with LeBron on the court. Home or away, Golden State has not done well recently (losing seven straight), but this is still a prideful bunch that knows its playing on national TV and has a chance to “steal one” against a team taking the floor without arguably the best player in the league. The Warriors have covered both times this year when they’ve gotten double digits at home. 10* Golden State

10* Purdue (7:00 ET): Despite an overall record of .500 (14-14 SU), Purdue’s NCAA Tournament hopes aren’t done yet. But it’s getting to be “do or die” time for the Boilermakers, who not only need a strong finish to the regular season, but a strong showing in the Big 10 Tournament as well. They’ve lost four in a row, two of those coming as home favorites. But they’ll have many more chances to show that they’re better than several of the Big 10’s presumed NCAA Tourney teams, including here as they face the last time they beat.

It was back on Feb 8th that Purdue went to Indiana and won 74-62 as a three-point dog. That was the night Bobby Knight made his long-awaited return to Bloomington. At the time, it seemed like the Boilermakers were finally ready to “turn the corner” for good. They were coming off an impressive shellacking of Iowa (104-68!) here in West Lafayette just three days prior. But things haven’t gone their way since, including an ugly 71-63 home loss to Michigan on Sunday where they shot just 28% in the 1H.

IU has won three of its last four since Purdue handed them what was (at the time) a 4th straight loss. But I still consider Purdue the better team here, especially at home. This is the first time the Boilermakers have lost B2B home games in six years. Despite the .500 SU record, I still consider them to be just on the outskirts of the top 25 teams in the country. It’s been a massively disappointing season so far for Matt Painter’s team, but they’ve got a chance to rewrite the script against an Indiana team that is just 8-23 SU its L31 road games including 2-6 (SU and ATS) this season. 10* Purdue

10* Missouri (9:00 ET): I happen to think the SEC isn’t very good this year. Other than Kentucky, there’s no team I feel is a strong bet to get out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament (and the Wildcats are far from a lock to do so themselves). Neither of the two teams in question here are going to even make the NCAA Tournament, but it’s a matchup where there’s definitely value as the last place team in the conference is getting far too much respect here.

Vanderbilt is last in the SEC with a 1-13 SU conference record. That one win was a real shocker as they upset LSU (who was unbeaten in conference play at the time), here in Nashville. However, other than that, this season has been a disaster for the Commodores. They are being outscored by 11.4 PPG in SEC play and have lost their last five games by a pretty similar margin. I see no reason to expect them to win tonight. 

Missouri isn’t exactly a world-beater but this spread basically dictates that all we need from them tonight is a SU win. The Tigers had covered four in a row before losing to Arkansas last Saturday. Mizzou has had a lot more success in the SEC this year than has Vandy, beating the likes of Arkansas (first time around), Auburn and Florida, all of whom could be NCAA Tournament teams. They also nearly upset LSU on the road. Lay the points here. 10* Missouri

10* Washington (7:05 ET): Over the previous few days, I’ve experienced success by both taking and fading Brooklyn. Of course they just lost Kyrie Irving for the year, so fading the Nets seems logical right now. But not last Saturday when I said they were the right side in Charlotte and sure enough came away with a 29-point victory. But facing a much better Orlando team Monday, they lost 115-113 as a 3.5-point favorite. So what’s a bettor to do Wednesday when the Nets host Washington? 

The Wizards fall somewhere in between the Magic and Hornets in my power rankings, so that makes the decision on how to answer the question above a little murkier. Three straight losses since the All-Star Break have done the Wiz no favors. But Bradley Beal has gone for 50+ (points) in B2B games. That the Wizards have lost both is somewhat incredible as Beal is the first player in league history to go for 50+ in B2B games since Kobe Bryant did it four straight times back in ‘07. 

Brooklyn blew a 19-pt lead Monday, the second time in less than a week they blew a lead of that size and lost. It’s been a profitable February for them (6-2-1 ATS) but they have just two road wins and one was by a single point. They lost here in D.C. back on Feb 1, 113-107, and are now just 10-17 SU on the road for the season. The Wizards are 6-1 ATS this season when off 3+ SU losses. They have a red hot Beal while the Nets just lost Irving. Washington is 14-2 SU its L16 games vs. Brooklyn. 10* Washington

10* Golden State (10:35 ET): It’s been hard times for the Warriors this season as injuries to Steph Curry and Klay Thompson had them derailed from the very start. They have gone from being the best team in the league over the last five seasons to having the worst record in 2019-20, which is as precipitous a fall as I’ve seen in this league in a long time. But I’m still unsure that they should be getting this many points at home against the Kings, a team that just isn’t favored on the road very often.

The Kings didn’t need any points to defeat the Clippers on Saturday. The 112-103 outright upset (were +9) was the Kings’ second win in a row and fifth in the last seven games. That said, they are still 10 games below .500 and unlikely to make the playoffs. They are just 3-3 STRAIGHT UP in the road favorite role and my guess is this could end up being the most points they have to lay in any road game all season. 

The Warriors have lost six in a row coming into tonight’s game, so they should be hungry for a win. No Marvin Bagley III means it will be tough for Sacramento to keep winning and I think they are prone for a letdown here after upsetting the Clippers. I just don’t think the spread should be this high. 10* Golden State

10* Baylor (8:00 ET): Pretty simple here as Baylor is looking to bounce back from its loss Saturday to Kansas. That loss snapped the Bears’ 23-game win streak and dropped them from #1 in the polls. Still though, there’s plenty to celebrate here in Waco. This remains a very likely #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and they could end up as the #1 overall seed in the field of 68. 

Kansas State is the team that finds itself in the unenviable position of facing Baylor tonight. This is a case of “wrong place, wrong time” for the Wildcats and to make matters worse they come in on a seven-game losing streak. The most points they’ve scored in any of those games is 67, ironically against Baylor, but the issues scoring are likely to really bite this team tonight w/ Baylor allowing just 56.8 PPG at home.

Provided there’s no letdown amongst the players, Baylor should easily roll in this one. Kansas State has major issues scoring (60.5 PPG away from Manhattan) and has just one win away from home all season. The Wildcats’ current form doesn’t inspire any confidence that they can get the job done here and this one has the potential to get “ugly” in a hurry. Baylor is #2 in the country in defensive efficiency and has proven it can win games by large margins even w/o large production from its leading scorers. 10* Baylor

10* Over Hornets/Pacers (7:05 ET): Charlotte is a team that I have very little regard for right now. I’ve been pretty steadfast in this mindset, which is why I went “all in” against them Saturday with a ~SIGNATURE~ *10* ULTIMATE POWER release on Brooklyn. The final score of that game was 115-86 (in the Nets’ favor) as Charlotte’s per game point differential for the season dropped to -7.4. That’s 4th worst in the league. 

There seems to be a very good chance Indiana will finish 6th in the Eastern Conference as they simply lack the kind of home court dominance we see from the the two teams (Miami, Philadelphia) that are ahead of them in the standings. But it was the road that was unkind to the Pacers Sunday as they were severely routed 127-81 by Toronto. That putrid effort saw them held to 32.6% shooting for the game. It was easily their worst margin of defeat this season.

Indiana hasn’t shot well in either of its games since the Break. Despite sustaining some injuries, you have to figure they’ll see their shooting improve upon returning home tonight. This is a team that normally shoots the ball pretty well (47.4%) and they average almost 110 PPG. As for Charlotte, they too shot poorly in their last game and I expect improvement there. This is a really low total by 2020 NBA standards. 10* Over Hornets/Pacers

10* Under LaSalle/Davidson (7:00 ET): Davidson had certainly hoped to be a bigger factor in the A-10 this year, but like everyone else in the conference, the Wildcats are looking up at Dayton. Still though, that hasn’t stopped them from playing better of late. Davidson has won 7 of its last 10 games with one of the losses coming in 4OT’s and another coming by a single point. Of particular interest to this selection is the fact the L4 games have all gone Over the number. 

LaSalle went 2-0 last week including an upset win at GW on Sunday. The Explorers entered their last game as three-point pups and came away w/ a 72-62 win in what was (sadly) maybe their most impressive showing in conference play so far. Prior to last week, LaSalle was just 2-10 SU in A-10 games. Their three conference wins besides the one at GW have come at the expense of Fordham & St. Joe’s, who are a combined 2-26 SU in conference play and tied for last. 

I mentioned earlier that Davidson’s L4 games have all gone Over. Well, the last one would NOT have done so had it not been for OT. There was also another game in the streak that saw them sink a season-high 18 three-pointers (against Fordham), which won’t happen again anytime soon. Davidson is actually a good defensive team (allowing just 61.1 PPG at home) and w/ LaSalle shooting only 40% in conference play, this looks like a pretty clear Under to me. 10* Under LaSalle/Davidson

8* New York (8:00 ET): It normally would take a lot for me to consider the Knicks as a viable play, but in this case we are getting “a lot” … a lot of points that is! There haven’t been too many games this season where NY has gotten more points than they are here. On the flip side of that, this could end up being the most points Houston has had to lay in any game this season. The Rockets do come in on a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, but two of the victories were by less of a margin than what the oddsmakers are calling for tonight.

The Knicks have played just one game since the All-Star Break and it was a 106-98 home loss to Indiana. They actually finished with a higher overall FG% than the Pacers (43.2 to 40.6), but were ultimately undone by the fact Indiana made more free throws than NY even attempted! I should point out that prior to the Break, the Knicks started February on a 4-0 SU/ATS run with three of those wins coming on the road. One (at Indiana) even came as a DD dog. 

The Rockets are just 7-5 STRAIGHT UP when coming into a game on a win streak of at least three games. While there’s no debate as to who the better team is in this matchup, laying this many points is not something I’d really advise doing in any NBA matchup. Let’s not forget that Houston does not defend particularly well. 8* New York

8* Orlando (7:35 ET): One of these teams is very likely to end up as the 7th seed in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Brooklyn currently occupies the spot and I backed them in a major way Saturday when they went to Charlotte as a three-point road favorite. They won 115-86, which was quite the statement considering Kyrie Irving is now done for the year. But remember who they were playing. Much of the basis for my play on the Nets was the Hornets are one of the worst teams in the entire league. 

Orlando is 24-32 SU, which puts them 2.5 games back of Brooklyn. But they are a fairly safe 3.5 games up on the 9th place team in the East. This Magic team does not seem to be as strong as last season and their first game after the All-Star Break was a major disappointment as they lost 122-106 at home to Dallas. But the Mavs are a really good team. The last time the Magic faced the Nets, which was in Orlando, they won 101-89. As will be the case the rest of the way, Brooklyn did not have Kyrie Irving suit up in that game. 

The Nets have enjoyed a profitable February, going 6-0-1 ATS the last seven games. But they’ve been underdogs for more than half of those contests and lost two straight up. While I did play them as a favorite Saturday, again, that was all about fading a very bad Charlotte team. Orlando is going to make the playoffs and actually leads the league in PPG allowed (105.7)! I think they’ll defend well enough to at least get the cover tonight and most likely the outright win! 8* Orlando

8* Cleveland (7:00 ET): For my first NBA selection after the All-Star Break, I chose to fade the Heat as a road favorite. The move worked beautifully as the Heat lost outright in Atlanta. Now there were clear signs that might happen. Miami has one of the strongest home vs. road splits in the league right now as they are 23-3 SU at home and just 13-17 SU on the road. Tonight they are again laying points against one of the league’s weakest teams and I’ll be fading here too. 

Cleveland has a rather eventful All-Star Break as HC John Beilein, who was never a good fit, was let go. The team responded by winning its first game under interim J.B. Bickerstaff, 113-108, in a come from behind effort at Washington. Then came a loss to the Heat. But that 124-105 setback was in Miami. I can’t say the Cavs are a great home team, but they’ve obviously got a much better shot at beating the Heat at home than on the road. This is also Bickerstaff’s 1st game at home, so expect an inspired effort.

Miami has dominated Cleveland through the years, winning the last eight matchups. All three wins this year have been by double digits. But the Cavs players obviously wanted the coaching change and should play better as a result. The difference in the Heat’s play at home (+10.9 PPG) vs. the road (-2.9 PPG) cannot possibly be overstated. While it was against Atlanta, the Cavs did win the last time they played here at home. Look for this to be tighter than expected. 8* Cleveland

10* Texas (7:00 ET): West Virginia has a problem winning on the road. An overtime loss at TCU Saturday dropped them to just 3-7 SU and ATS in “true” road games. It was their 5th consecutive loss away from Morgantown and three of those have come as favorites. As good as the Mountaineers are at home, I just can’t trust them laying points on the road right now and will play accordingly tonight as they visit Austin. 

Texas is coming off a 2-0 week, including a win over TCU. While the Longhorns got the Horned Frogs here at home, they did have to travel to Kansas State for Saturday’s win and Manhattan is not an easy place to win. Even more impressive is that the 70-59 upset (UT was +5) was a lot more lopsided than the final score showed. The Longhorns led 42-23 at the half and were never really threatened. 

To say Texas is “thinking revenge” here would be putting it mildly. They lost by 38 up in Morgantown last month, a result I’m sure HC Shaka Smart and his players have not forgotten. As noted above, WVU is obviously a much different team on the road. They are just 1-4 SU/ATS their L5 games overall. The Longhorns allow just 60.8 PPG in Austin and have allowed less than that in three of their last four games overall. Believe it or not, WVU is just one game up on Texas in the Big 12 standings. The Longhorns are getting career-best production out of Courtney Ramey right now. 10* Texas

10* Portland (9:05 ET): The Blazers have lost Damian Lillard (groin) for an indefinite period of time and he’s not the only one currently sitting on the bench due to injury. But I believe this team still has enough to defeat the sorry Pistons, who have lost five in a row as well as 10 of their last 12 games. Portland is still very much in play for that 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference and isn’t about to let a chance like this slip by. 

Detroit, meanwhile, is rapidly seeing its already slim playoff hopes get even slimmer. Even with only six teams in the East over .500, the Pistons are six games back of the final playoff spot. They’ve averaged only 97 PPG during the five-game losing streak and remember they don’t have Blake Griffin. A 20-point home loss to Milwaukee on Thursday was the latest setback as the team fell to 9-26 SU in games where it is an underdog. 

Portland is a disappointing 15-12 SU at home this year, but finds itself laying a short number here. After losing three straight games to teams they are battling for that 8-seed (including two to New Orleans), look for the Blazers to blow through the Pistons tonight as they’ve had enough of the losing. Even without Lillard, they still scored 115 points in their last game. 10* Portland

10* Under Celtics/Lakers (3:30 ET): This long-standing rivalry is certainly relevant again with the Celtics in third place in the East and the Lakers leading the West. Boston lost just once in its L10 games and that was at Houston before the Break. Since the 2nd half of the season began, they’ve beaten the Clippers 141-133 and T’wolves 127-117. As you might guess from those two scores, both games easily went Over. 

The Lakers have won four in a row overall to solidify their lead atop the Western Conference standings. They’ve played only one game since the Break and it was a 117-105 win over Memphis (who was in the second night of a back to back) Friday night. During the win streak, LA has scored a minimum of 117 pts every time. They’ve also covered the spread in the last three games. 

While both sides have scored plenty recently, don’t go discounting their ability to play defense. The Lakers are giving up only 104.8 PPG at home, which is a really impressive number for 2020. Opponents shoot just 43.6% when they visit LA. Believe it or not, the Celtics allow a slightly lower FG% on the road. These are two of the top five teams in the league in defensive efficiency. A meeting last month in Beantown saw the Celtics score 139 points. That won’t be happening again here. 10* Under Celtics/Lakers

10* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): At last glance, Cincinnati is considered to be one of the last teams in the field of 68 (NCAA Tournament) that wouldn’t be in a “play-in game.” That makes today’s game vs. Wichita State critically important for the Bearcats as a loss here would place them squarely on the Tourney bubble. A win further solidifies their status as one of three teams from the American Conference likely to get in. 

Wichita State is one of the two (Houston being the other) that is considered “safe” as far as making the Tourney goes. After a three-game losing streak to start the month, the Shockers have now won three straight - all by double digit margins. But those three wins have all come against bottom teams in the American. Interestingly enough, two of those three losses they took earlier this month came against Houston and Cincinnati. They lost 80-79 at home to Cincy as five-point chalk. 

Cincinnati has only been beaten twice in its last nine games. Once was by a single point at UConn. The other was Wednesday vs. UCF, a game which went to double overtime. So, again, you can see how important this game is for them. While they’ve failed to cover four straight (overall), this is a team that’s 11-2 SU at home and covered both times they’ve been in the -3.5 to -6 range here. 10* Cincinnati

10* Over UC Irvine/CS Northridge (10:00 ET): UC Irvine has been the dominant team out in the Big West the last two seasons. Last year, the Anteaters went 15-1 SU in conference play and 31-6 SU overall. They’re not nearly that dominant this season, but still have only lost two conference games and come into Saturday having won three straight. Thursday saw them avenge one of those two Big West defeats as they easily handled Long Beach State, winning that game 70-55 as 15-point favorites (so it was a push). 

CS Northridge was a team seemingly “left for dead” at one point as the Matadors started their season with seven consecutive losses. They are 11-9 SU since, but just got blitzed by UC Davis on Thursday, losing 110-98! No there wasn’t any overtime involved to get to that final score. Both teams shot almost 60% from the game and were a combined 25 of 44 on three-point attempts. While we shouldn’t expect that level of shooting again, it would require a pretty substantial dropoff for this one to go Under. 

UC Irvine’s last four games have all gone Under as they’ve held the opposition to just over 60 PPG. But that’s going to be hard to do here as CS Northridge averages more than 80 PPG at home. Of course, you should also expect UC Irvine to score it’s “fair share” as Northridge is giving up almost 80 PPG for the season. This is the first meeting of the year and what’s interesting for UC Irvine is that the majority of their first meetings w/ conference opponents this year have gone Over. 10* Over UC Irvine/CS Northridge

10* Brooklyn (7:05 ET): The Nets’ future prospects for the remainder of this season were dealt a severe blow earlier this week when it was announced Kyrie Irving won’t be returning from shoulder surgery. The Nets are currently in 7th place in the Eastern Conference and should still make the playoffs despite the fact their two big free agent acquisitions (Irving and Kevin Durant) played a total of 20 games this year (0 for Durant). The fortunate thing for Brooklyn is that there’s a pretty large gap between them and 9th place (currently 5 games). 

Charlotte is one of the teams hoping to benefit from the Nets now being short-handed. Thursday saw the Hornets win for a third straight time (all as road underdogs) as they beat Chicago 103-93. But they are still 6.5 games back of the Nets and 4.5 games back of 8th place Orlando. While it was impressive that the Hornets won in Chicago, even with leading scorer Devonte Graham being held scoreless, make no mistake about it -- this is one of the worst teams in the entire league according to point differential. The Hornets -7.0 PPG differential is currently tied for 4th worst.

The Nets did lose Thursday in Philadelphia, but that’s a tough place to play. The Sixers have the league’s best home record. They pushed as eight-point dogs, but are still 7-1-1 ATS their L9 games. Remember that w/o Irving they snapped Toronto’s 15-game win streak right before the All-Star Break. The remaining cast for the Nets is better than you think and the Hornets are only 8-16 SU at home. 10* Brooklyn

10* Purdue (2:00 ET): Purdue has been one of the most confounding teams in the entire country this season. Thought by many (including me!) to be among the top 25 teams in the entire country, the Boilermakers have suffered 13 defeats and are now in serious danger of failing to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. At 14-13 SU overall, winning out between now and the Big 10 Tournament may be a necessity, especially in light of three straight losses. It’s obviously a “must win” today vs. Michigan. 

The Wolverines went from unranked at the start of the season to as high as #4 in the polls. Clearly, they were underestimated with an unproven HC (Juwan Howard), but it was laughable to me that they were ever considered the 4th best team in the country. They got that high on the strength of an impressive early season showing in the Bahamas. While beating Gonzaga still looks impressive, the win over UNC (who was #6 at the time - HA!) definitely isn’t. 

The Wolverines just handed Rutgers its first home loss of the season, 60-52 on Wednesday. They were 3.5-pt dogs in that game and it was their fourth consecutive win - SU and ATS. Two of those four wins have been as underdogs, but I don’t see them pulling the trick in B2B games as Purdue is about as desperate as it gets here. The Boilermakers are still 10-3 SU when playing at home and 12-4 SU as a favorite. We’re getting a great discounted price on them today. Trust me. 10* Purdue

8* Pittsburgh (12:00 ET): I’ve been through before how this simply isn’t the same caliber Virginia team compared to the one that cut the nets down last April. This Cavaliers team, while still playing the same caliber defense we’re used to seeing from a Tony Bennett outfit, is just horrendous offensively. Consider that this year’s team actually ranks spot HIGHER in defensive efficiency compared to last season. But offensively, they’ve fallen from 2nd to 212th. They are averaging only 56.2 PPG on the road. 

Then again, Pitt is not exactly tearing it up in the ACC this year either. The Panthers come into Saturday on a three-game losing streak. The most recent setback came Tuesday when they lost by 15 at Florida State. Most of their ACC wins have come against teams located at the bottom of the conference standings. Those three straight losses have all come by double digits. As a result, I expect a desperate team to bring its ‘A’ game here. 

Despite only losing once (to Louisville) in its last eight games, Virginia still fails to crack my top 40 nationally and right now is still considered a “bubble team” for the NCAA Tournament. This is the first meeting of the year with Pitt. They’ve mostly handled Pitt through the years, but I continue to worry about this group’s ability to score. Averaging so few points makes it increasingly difficult to cover as a favorite and sure enough the Hoos are 4-13 ATS this year vs. winning teams. 8* Pittsburgh

10* Memphis (10:35 ET): The Grizzlies had a game last night in Sacramento and lost it by four points. That result seemingly does not bode well for tonight’s contest out in LA against the Lakers. But it’s a lot of points the Grizzlies are getting here and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if LeBron & company come out rusty in their first game post-All Star Break. I won’t go so far as to call this number “way off,” but Memphis has suffered only three SU defeats in its last 11 games. They are 5-2 SU/ATS in the second game of a back to back this season. 

The Lakers went into the Break in first place in the Western Conference. They won their last three games, but two of those were close (5 pt wins). Seven of the Lakers’ 12 SU losses this year have been at home. They only beat Memphis by a single point the last time they faced them and that was back in November. The Grizzlies have gotten much better since that time, going 23-17 SU overall. 

Incredibly, there have been three different times this season that Memphis has been a double digit dog and won the game outright. The last such time was right here in this building against the Clippers when they won 140-114, setting off what would be a 7-game win streak. It’s just too many points for the Lakers to lay in their first game back after the All-Star Break and remember that their two stars (LeBron & Anthony Davis) figured heavily into Sunday’s All-Star Game. 10* Memphis

10* Under Suns/Raptors (7:35 ET): I happen to think Phoenix is a lot better than its record (22-33 SU) shows as they’ve only been outscored by 1.2 PPG and actually have a positive net efficiency rating. By those metrics the Suns are actually the 8th best team in the Western Conference, but they still face a healthy six game deficit to make the playoffs, which is something the franchise has not done since 2010 (2nd longest drought in league). Unfortunately for the Suns, having to head for Toronto is not exactly the most ideal way to start the 2nd half. 

The defending NBA Champion Raptors have really hit their stride over the last month or so, winning a franchise record 15 in a row from 1/15-2/10. That win streak was halted in the final game before the All-Star Break as they fell 101-91 in Brooklyn. The last time the Raptors lost a game “North of the Border” was January 12th - by a single point - to San Antonio. Look for the Raptors to finish either 2nd or 3rd in the East as they fight w/ Boston over who’s the best team besides Milwaukee. 

The “secret” to the Raptors’ success is the fact they rank #2 in the league in defensive efficiency, trailing only Milwaukee. They’ve been able to consistently win despite a myriad of injuries and right now three players, including starter Marc Gasol, are likely to miss tonight’s game. Phoenix is also dealing with several players on the injury front, though their respective statuses appear more promising. Yet this is just the third time all year the Suns have taken the court w/ at least three days rest. Both previous times, the game went Under. 10* Under Suns/Raptors

10* Harvard (7:00 ET): Despite the fact that leading scorer Bryce Aiken has played in just seven games all season, Harvard has persevered to go 16-7 SU and they are just one game back of both Yale & Princeton in the Ivy League standings. Tonight, they get to host Princeton and it’s a revenge game for a 70-69 loss that occurred back on Feb 1st. Harvard was favored in that game, despite it being on the road, which is telling. I think laying the points is the right move in this rematch as the Crimson look to have a sizable edge at home.

That first meeting w/ Princeton was part of a five-game road trip for Harvard in which they finished up 2-3 SU. All five games were decided by four points or less (by 10 pts total!) including a pair of one-point losses. It was another close call for the Crimson in their last game as they needed double overtime to get by Columbia on Saturday. But that made it a 2-0 sweep for the week at home where they are now 8-1 SU on the year and holding opponents to a scant 59.4 PPG. The only loss at home was to Maryland, who is a top 10 team nationally.

Princeton is coming off an easy 73-54 win over Brown. That was a nice bounce back for them after being blown out by Yale, 88-64, in their own gym the night prior. While they did manage to slip by Harvard the first time, note it took a 56.5% shooting night from three-point range to do so. This line is rather telling given the Tigers are tied for 1st place in the conference. They give up 77.6 PPG on the road and w/ Harvard’s three league losses coming by a total of five points, it’s safe to say they are better than their record. 10* Harvard

10* Over Loyola Marymount/St. Mary’s (11:00 ET): St. Mary’s goes for the season sweep of Loyola Marymount tonight and really the task shouldn’t prove too difficult. The Gaels won by 11 last month and LMU has won just two times away from home all season. One was a neutral site game as the Lions’ record in “true” road games is 1-8 SU. St. Mary’s is 4-0 SU/ATS the L4 head to head meetings. Still laying this many points is not something I have much interest in. Instead, let’s look at the total.

It’s a pretty low number here and I’m not exactly sure why. The Over is 5-1 for St. Mary’s this season when the total is 120 to 129.5 and this team is 13th in the country in offensive efficiency. Five of the last six St. Mary’s games have gone Over, most of them with higher O/U lines than this one. Their home games average 137.5 PPG, which is well above tonight’s total. The first meeting vs. LMU was a 73-62 final where the Gaels shot 56% from the field.

Now Loyola Marymount doesn’t exactly score a ton of points. But even if they can get to their season average of 60.3 per game away from home, we should be in good shape here. The Lions did just pull an upset over the weekend, holding Santa Clara to 59 pts in what was their first “true” road win of the season. But you shouldn’t look for that kind of defensive effort here against St. Mary’s. The good news is St. Mary’s ranks outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. From LMU’s perspective, the number is low as the Over is 36-17 the L53 times the total has fallen into the 120 to 129.5 range. 10* Over Loyola Marymount/St. Mary’s

10* Under Rockets/Warriors (10:35 ET): What was a Western Conference Finals matchup last season will not be repeated in 2020 as Golden State has been decimated by injuries from the very start of this campaign, resulting in them having the worst record in the league going into the All-Star Break (12-43 SU). That would have been considered unthinkable back in October. Meanwhile, the Rockets are underperforming in their own right as they went into the Break 5th in the West.

Houston has the clear advantage tonight, but what I’m focusing on is the high total for this game. With their reputation for high-scoring games, the Rockets have seen exactly two-thirds of their games this season have an O/U line of 230 points or higher. The Under is 25-11 in those games, including 15-5 on the road. That’s the situation tonight and they’re up against a team that is averaging only 106.3 PPG.

Golden State has just three wins since 12.27. During that time, they’ve been held below 100 pts six different times. Now I’m not guaranteeing that will happen again tonight. But this is one of the highest O/U lines for any Warriors game this season. The Under is 2-0 for them w/ a total of 230 or higher. They are 17-7 Under when on a losing streak of three or more games. Meanwhile, Houston went into the Break on a four-game Under streak. Some recently added pieces may lead to further inefficiency with the offense. 10* Under Rockets/Warriors

10* Texas State (8:00 ET): Off to the Sun Belt we go for this one as Texas State hosts Ga Southern in what amounts to a very important game. This conference race remains wide open with the four teams at the top separated by just two games. These two teams are both two games back of leader Little Rock, who Texas State just beat exactly one week ago here in San Marcos. The Bobcats followed that up w/ another home victory, 69-64 over Arkansas State, and they enter tonight on a 9-2 hot streak w/ the two losses coming by a total of five points.

Georgia Southern, on the other hand, is off a loss and a bad one at that. They fell 62-57 at home to Appalachian State as a six-point home favorite. That result snapped a three-game win streak. What really hurt the Eagles in that loss Saturday was them missing 16 of 18 three-point attempts. Tonight they’re up against a team that allows just 63.6 PPG on the year and even fewer (60.6) at home. Again, Ga Southern scored just 57 points in its last game. 

This is also a revenge spot for Texas State as they lost by three at Ga Southern back in December. Since then, things have obviously “picked up” (see above). Over the L11 games, no opponent has scored more than 66 pts on the Bobcats. Ga Southern has actually not been an underdog since Jan 18th when they lost at South Alabama. It’s a role that has not treated them well at all as they’ve failed to cover five of the seven times and lost six of those games outright. This is Texas State’s night. 10* Texas State

10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): It feels good to have the NBA back Thursday. For those unaware, Miami has the sharpest home vs. road split in the league outside of Philadelphia. While the Heat have gone an impressive 22-3 SU at home this year, they are still only in fourth place in the Eastern Conference due to a 13-16 road record. The proof is “in the numbers” as they go from a +10.6 PPG scoring differential at home to -2.9 on the road. With them laying so many points on the road tonight, I’ve got no choice but to fade. 

While Atlanta’s home record (9-15 SU) is even worse than Miami’s road mark, the Hawks are generally a lot more competitive here in their own building. They’re only -3.4 PPG, which is a massive improvement from them being outscored by an average 13.3 PPG on the road. While I cannot run from the fact the Hawks are at the bottom of the league record-wise and have some serious defensive issues, this is precisely the kind of situation (off a long break) where they should be capable of pulling an upset, or at the very least keep the game close. 

Now the Hawks are 0-3 vs. the Heat (SU and ATS) this season with all those games taking place before X-Mas. But two were in Miami. Tonight is also the end of a six-game road trip for the Heat that goes back to Feb 5. Their only SU win on the trip so far came at Golden State. Another thing to consider is that Miami was a very lucky team in the first half. They went 8-0 in overtime games, which is almost unheard of as an achievement. One of those was against the Hawks and somehow they ended up prevailing by 14 (misleading final!). Take the points here. 10* Atlanta

10* Under South Dakota St/North Dakota (8:00 ET): If you recall, we went Under on South Dakota State’s last game and came away with a winning ticket. That game was played Sunday against IPFW and the Jackrabbits held their opponents to just 64 points on 37.5% shooting. The current Summit League leaders are now on a six-game win streak and have held their L5 opponents to an average of 65.6 PPG on 37.5% shooting. During that time, only one team (Denver) has scored more than 64 pts or shot better than 37.5% against them.

SDSU hits the road Wednesday to face North Dakota, who like IPFW is a middle of the pack team in this conference. The Fighting Hawks did just record an 86-83 victory at Western Illinois, who is one of the worst teams in the Summit League. Before that win & cover (were -2), ND had covered only one of its previous nine games. The first meeting with South Dakota State did not go well as the Jackrabbits rolled to an 87-66 win thanks to shooting 50% from the field. Fortunately, SDSU does not score nearly as much on the road as they do at home.

While North Dakota may have some issues defending, the Under remains 7-1 this year for South Dakota State when the O/U line is 150 to 159.5. Also note that North Dakota’s last game went into overtime. It was 73-73 at the end of regulation, so the final score is a little misleading. The Fighting Hawks shot just 41.3% overall and were a dreadful 5 of 23 from three-point range. What “propped” their point total up was them going 29 of 33 from the FT line. They also shot poorly from 3-pt range in that 1st meeting w/ SDSU, which should repeat itself here as the Jackrabbits are holding opponents to 30% from behind the arc this year. 10* Under South Dakota St/North Dakota

8* Butler (6:30 ET): I’ve got much respect for Seton Hall, who leads the Big East right now w/ a 10-3 SU record in conference play. But the Pirates have dropped two in a row, including one at home to Creighton, and this is a tough spot laying points to a fellow ranked team. Butler certainly won’t be lacking for motivation as it has revenge for a 78-70 home loss to “The Hall” last month and things have gone a little “sideways” recently for the Bulldogs as they are just 4-6 SU their L10 games. 

Butler is coming off a bad loss to Georgetown where they were 12.5-point home favorites. They lost 73-66. While HC LaVall Jordan has been quick to point to defensive issues, it’s the offense that’s hurt the Bulldogs more of late. They’ve failed to hit 70 pts in three straight games as well as five of the last six. This is a team that still ranks 26th in the country in offensive efficiency and makes 53.3% of its two-point attempts. The good news is that it was only two games ago that the Bulldogs held a lead as large as 17 points against a good Xavier team. 

Seton Hall HC Kevin Willard admitted after Saturday’s loss at Providence that he’s dealing with “some guys with bad attitudes right now.” That’s never a good sign, especially this late in the season. Curiously, the Pirates are shooting below 30% from three-point range at home. That’s a big break for a Butler team that admittedly struggles to defend beyond the arc. But they are holding opponents to 43.3% from two-point range. Virtually all of the recent head to head meetings have been close (three decided by 2 pts or less!) and w/ Butler 5-1 ATS L6 visits here, I’m taking the points. 8* Butler

8* Under Colorado St/UNLV (10:30 ET): From Jan 8 through Feb 1, UNLV went Over in seven straight games. Since then, the Under is 3-1 in their games w/ the lone Over coming in a game that went to overtime (82-79 loss to Nevada). The Rebels aren’t exactly a great shooting team (I watched them in person vs. Nevada) and are making just 30.5% of their 3PA here at the Thomas & Mack Center. Tuesday sees them hosting a Colorado State team that has gone Over in five straight.

These teams met not long ago in Fort Collins and CSU hung 95 points on the Runnin’ Rebels in a blowout victory. That was the final game of the 7-game Over streak for UNLV. It was also the 2nd straight game Colorado State scored 90+. They haven’t been able to reach that number since, but their games continue to go Over. These L5 games have seen the Rams average 83.2 PPG on 49.5% shooting. Both numbers are well above their season averages. 

Playing on the road, I don’t expect Colorado State to have a big offensive night here. They only shot 40.7% in Saturday’s 77-70 win at Wyoming. Similarly, UNLV should not be expected to match the 50% shooting we saw against short-handed New Mexico Saturday. Their previous three games saw them finish below 40% from the field. Colorado State shot 61.5% overall in the first meeting and was 11 of 17 from three-point approach. It’s all but impossible for them to match those numbers here. 8* Under Colorado State/UNLV

10* Over Ball State/Buffalo (7:00 ET): Buffalo is a high-scoring team. Their 78.2 PPG average ranks among the top 25 in the country overall and they are averaging more than 80 PPG here at home. However, each of the Bulls’ previous six games have gone Under the total, three of those being among their lowest scoring efforts of the year. But after failing to top 65 pts in B2B games for the 1st time all season, there was an offensive breakthrough last Friday at Toledo. The Bulls won that game 83-65 (as a 2.5-pt dog).

Similarly, Ball State had gone Under in eight straight contests heading into this past weekend. But their streak has been snapped. Differing from Buffalo, it was a defensive breakdown that cost the Cardinals their last game as they gave up 77 points in a six-point loss at home to surprising Bowling Green. While that was the most points BSU has allowed in any MAC game this season, it was far from their worst defensive effort. The last time they played on the road, the Cardinals let Western Michigan shoot 61% from the field! 

So Buffalo should definitely score plenty of points tonight. While the number may be on the rise, this is still one of the lower O/U lines in recent memory for the Bulls. Defensively, they have held three straight opponents below 70 pts and the last two both below 40% shooting. But they’re still giving up 74.6 PPG on the year with opponents shooting 45% in home games. So there’s an opening for Ball St offensively in this one and I look for them to take advantage of it. 10* Over Ball State/Buffalo

10* Kent State (7:00 ET): After back to back “clunkers” against Ball State and Northern Illinois (scored 54 pts both games), Kent State played one of its best games of the year Saturday, riding a career-high 27 points from Troy Simons and a season-high 17 made three-pointers as a team en route to an 87-72 victory over Ohio. They look to continue better position themselves for the MAC Tournament Tuesday when they hit the road to face a rising Eastern Michigan team. 

Eastern Michigan has covered five straight games and won them all but one, a 59-58 loss at Akron. The Eagles play pretty outstanding defense, especially at home where they are giving up only 59.5 PPG. Factoring that in along with the recent form makes it seem they’ll be a pretty “tough out” for the Golden Flashes tonight. But something that is very interesting here is the oddsmakers’ perception of EMU. Their last game (a 69-51 over Western Michigan) marked the 1st time ALL YEAR that they were favored in MAC play!

So I think it speaks volumes that the road team comes in favored here. Yes, Eastern Michigan has been winning, but three of their last four wins have been by four points or less. Before this 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS streak began, the Eagles had actually lost seven in a row. Incredibly, this is a team that has been favored only six times all year (6-0 in those games). They are still just 4-10 SU in the underdog role. Off the strong showing Saturday, look for Kent State to come in and take care of business. 10* Kent State

10* Iowa State (9:00 ET): Kansas figures to still be at #3 in the polls when it tips off against Iowa State Monday in Lawrence. The Jayhawks, now 22-3 SU on the year, notched impressive wins over West Virginia (58-49) and Oklahoma (87-70) over the past week. They’ve now won 10 in a row and truth be told there is an argument to be made that this is the best team in the entire country. KU has covered the spread in three straight games.

Iowa State had a far more tumultuous week as they learned star Tyrese Haliburton, projected to be a 1st round NBA pick, will miss the rest of the season with a wrist injury. In their first game w/o Haliburton, the Cyclones were crushed 90-61 at Oklahoma. But they then circled the wagons Saturday for arguably their most impressive performance to date, an 81-52 thrashing of Texas in Ames. 

Kansas has #1 Baylor on deck, a showdown in Waco that takes place Saturday. They already faced Iowa State right before Baylor earlier this season and this time KU is hopeful things turn out better. That’s because last time they ended up losing to Baylor 67-55. They did defeat ISU 79-53 in Ames, but I look for this rematch to be a lot closer than that. It’s the most points the Cyclones will get in any game all season and they’re 22-10 ATS as a road dog of at least 12.5 points going back more than a decade. The “lookahead” factor is real here. 10* Iowa State

8* California (6:00 ET): It would appear as if these two teams are trending in pretty different directions coming into Sunday, but the reality of the matter is that neither is really heading anywhere of note. Arizona State has won four in a row, including an upset at Stanford on Thursday, but the Sun Devils are still aren’t considered a NCAA Tourney team (nor should they be). Cal, who no one expected to do much this year, has lost three in a row. But save for Thursday’s loss to a very good Arizona team, the Bears have proven to be a pretty tough “out” here in Berkeley. 

I consider Arizona to be the Pac 12’s best team, so I won’t put much stock in the fact California lost to them by a score of 68-52. That non-cover (were +10.5) snapped a 5-0 ATS run in Pac 12 home games for Cal, which included three outright upsets. The only two conference opponents to come in here and win are Arizona and Oregon, the two best teams. This is simply a much better team when at home and it’s a benefit that ASU is playing its second straight road game. 

While in the midst of (arguably) their most successful stretch of the season, Arizona State is mostly winning close. The last two games have seen them prevail by a total of seven points and four of their last five wins have been by five points or fewer. That leaves them on “shaky ground” as a road favorite as far as I’m concerned. This will be just the third time the Sun Devils have been a road favorite this season and they are 0-2 ATS the previous two occasions with a two-point win over Princeton (2nd game of the season) and an outright loss at Washington State last month. 8* California

8* Connecticut (3:00 ET): As it stands now, the American Conference may be sending as few as 2-3 teams to the NCAA Tournament and Memphis won’t be one of them. Anfernee Hardaway’s Tigers came into the 2019-20 season with plenty of promise, but things have been marred with controversy from the start as top recruit James Wiseman was quickly ruled ineligible. The team has still managed to go 17-7 SU, but comes into Sunday off B2B losses (to South Florida and Cincinnati), the latter of which coming in a game that went to OT.

UConn’s glory days seem like a long time ago, but the Huskies have proven to be a tough out lately by going 3-0 ATS their L3 games. Two of those were also SU wins, one of them against the AAC leader (at the time) Tulsa. That was followed by a minor upset of Cincinnati here at home (also an overtime game)) and then on Wednesday the Huskies gave SMU all they could handle in an eventual 79-75 loss. The Huskies still covered the spread (+5) even though they allowed SMU to shoot 55% from the field. 

This is a revenge game for UConn as they lost 70-63 down in Memphis on Feb 1. That was a tie game w/ under three minutes to go, but Memphis uncharacteristically hit most of its free throws down the stretch (9 of 10) to get the win and cash as five-point chalk. While UConn is 0-5 ATS its L5 times hosting the Tigers, I see them getting revenge this afternoon as they are simply a much better team at home where they are 10-3 SU/9-4 ATS. They shot poorly in the game at Memphis, something I don’t see happening today. Memphis makes less than 41% of its FG attempts on the road. 8* Connecticut

10* Under IPFW-South Dakota St (3:00 ET): Out in the Summit League, South Dakota State is tied with North Dakota State for first place (both teams sporting 10-2 SU records in conf play). The Jackrabbits have won five straight and 10 of their last 11 as they remain perfect on the year at home (14-0 SU). They’ve enjoyed a strong season at the betting window as well, going 17-8 ATS overall including 12-4 when favored. They tend to put a lot of points on the board, especially at home where they average 82.4 PPG.

IPFW is facing a pretty tough “ask” from the schedule makers here as they just played at North Dakota State Thursday. They lost, 80-70, but at least got the cash as 12.5-poingt dogs. The loss snapped a two game win streak for the Mastadons, who now have to travel to face the other co-leader in the Summit. The first meeting this season with SD State yielded a 70-61 loss, at home obviously, as IPFW had a dreadful shooting night (32.4% overall) which included them missing 22 of 26 three-point attempts. 

As you may have guessed, South Dakota State shoots the ball well here at home. They shot the ball well vs. IPFW in that first meeting, making over 52% of their FG attempts. They figure to shoot it pretty well again this afternoon, but let’s not discount the defense the Jackrabbits are playing either. Before the 90-78 win over Denver on Friday, they’d held three straight opponents to under 37% shooting. IPFW generally does NOT shoot the ball well. Neither team ranks in the top 200 in adjusted tempo. 10* Under IPFW/South Dakota St

8* UC Irvine (11:59 ET): UC Irvine continues to lead the Big West (8-2 SU in conf play) and should be considered - by far - the best team this league has to offer. The Anteaters’ overall record may be just 16-10. But they took on a tough non-conference schedule. It was last Saturday when they suffered their second loss in Big West play, 64-61 at UCSB. But they wasted little time in rebounding as they went to rival UC Riverside and won 63-59. The next goal is ending a 3-game ATS losing streak. 

Hawaii host UC Irvine tonight. The Warriors have not covered the spread in any of their last seven lined contests. They’ve also lost the last three on the court. The most recent was by a single point, 50-49, to Long Beach State right here at home. While that was only their third home loss of the season, the Warriors definitely still deserve to be underdogs tonight. They lost at UC Irvine by 14 last month and were never really in the game. 

It’s pretty crazy that three of the last six meetings between these teams have been decided by exactly one point. But the other three have all been comfortable victories for UC Irvine. Hawaii is one of only three teams besides UC Irvine in the Big West to have a winning overall record. But that should also say something about the Warriors inability to get the cash. Wednesday’s 4-point  win by UC Irvine was their first all year in the Big West by less than seven points. They cover the spread here. 8* UC Irvine

10* Over Virginia/North Carolina (8:00 ET): Even though the conference currently has three top eight teams (Louisville, Duke, Florida State), on the whole it’s been a very disappointing season for the ACC. Nowhere is that more evident than here as Virginia faces North Carolina Saturday night. Virginia, who won last year’s NCAA Tournament, is fighting just to get in the Big Dance this year. North Carolina has no shot to make it into March Madness unless it wins the ACC Tournament, which seems unlikely at this point.

Virginia is still playing its usual trademark defense as they rank third nationally in efficiency. But the offensive end has been ugly with them ranking 250th in efficiency. Compare that to last year’s title team which ranked 2nd in the country in offensive efficiency (5th in defensive efficiency). Overall, UVA games are only averaging a paltry 108.1 PPG this season, easily the fewest in the entire country. So it should be no shock that the total is really low here. But with UNC as the opponent, it’s too low.

The Tar Heels have dropped four in a row including that heartbreaker to Duke last Saturday night. That was followed by a dismal effort at Wake Forest where they lost 74-57 as a 1.5-point favorite. But here in Chapel Hill, they are still averaging 74.6 PPG. Will they reach that average tonight against Virginia? Probably not. But UNC should score enough to get this one Over. My view is that both teams are capable of scoring 60 here. The Over is 5-1 this year in Virginia road games with a total of 119.5 or less. 10* Over Virginia/North Carolina

10* South Florida (12:00 ET): Tulsa was badly exposed last week when they lost by 16 to UConn as a three-point home favorite. Believe it or not, the Golden Hurricane actually came into that game leading the American Conference. They were further exposed in their next game, an 83-75 loss at UCF. But they did bounce back earlier this week w/ a convincing 70-56 win over East Carolina, a team near the bottom of the AAC. Still in third place, the Golden Hurricane now make the long trip to USF for an early Saturday start. 

South Florida has covered four straight, the lone SU loss in that stretch coming last time out when they faced first place (and the only ranked AAC team) Houston. But the Bulls lost by only four. This team may have its issues scoring, but they play excellent defense as is evident by the fact they are allowing only 57.8 PPG at home. The game before they lost to Houston, USF went to Memphis and won outright. The two previous games saw them allow just 100 points total. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS on Saturdays this season. 

Other than vs. East Carolina, the only other time Tulsa has been a favorite in conference play was the game against UConn. We saw what happened there. Once again, oddsmakers are speaking volumes by installing them as an underdog here. The kind of defense USF can play here at home is the difference. They lead the conference in scoring defense. We saw Tulsa allow 83 pts in their last road game to a UCF team that USF held to 48 pts. Both times this year that the Bulls have been favored at home by three points or less, they have gotten the cash. 10* South Florida

10* Over Manhattan/Iona (7:00 ET): These MAAC schools just met 12 days ago with Manhattan dealing Iona a humiliating 72-49 blow as 4-point favorites. Since then, Iona has bounced back with two convincing wins on the road: 73-52 over Quinnipiac and 78-54 over Fairfield. Both came as underdogs. The Gaels are certainly better than their 7-12 SU record, but have also proven to be wildly inconsistent. Not sure if they can be trusted as favorites tonight, even though they are back home in a huge revenge spot.

Manhattan is also unbeaten since the Iona game having beaten Niagara 77-59 (-6.5) and Quinnipiac (65-63). The latter was on the road while the former was at home. Over the course of what is now a 3-game SU/ATS win streak, the Jaspers have allowed an average of only 57 PPG on 36.6% shooting. But I cannot see them continuing that level of defensive play for much longer, especially on the road. On the flip side, the Jaspers may not be a deadly offensive team, but look for them to take advantage of the fact Iona is allowing opponents to shoot better than 45% from behind the 3-point arc this season.

Iona likely won’t shoot as well here as they did in their last game (57.4%!) but they’ll definitely be more proficient than they were in the first meeting with Manhattan when they made only 32.6% of their shots. Iona home games are averaging 147.1 PPG, which is well up from 136.9 PPG on the road. Because of that, I’m throwing down on the Over here as both sides are capable of scoring far more than you think. 10* Over Manhattan/Iona

8* Over Buffalo/Toledo (6:30 ET): Buffalo enjoyed a really nice run of success under Nate Oats. During his tenure, the Bulls made it to the NCAA Tournament three times and advanced to the Round of 32 twice. But Oats bolted for “greener pastures” (i.e. Alabama), leaving his former program as basically “just another MAC team.” While still one of the better teams in the conference, UB can no longer count on dominating night after night. They come into tonight’s game having lost 3 of 5, leaving them at 15-9 SU on the year. 

I would rate Toledo fairly comparably to Buffalo so the line tonight doesn’t surprise me. Toledo has a losing record (12-13 SU) and has not done well against the spread this season as they are just 2-10-1 ATS the L13 games. But earlier this week, the Rockets were able to put an end to five-game SU losing streak by beating Miami (OH) 65-57. They held the RedHawks to 36.2% shooting, which is abnormally good defensive performance for them. The same statement could be made for Buffalo in their last game (which was last Friday) as they held Central Michigan to 35.7% shooting in a 65-60 win. 

Buffalo’s last five games have all stayed Under, the last two by huge margins. But by playing at the sixth fastest tempo in the entire country, this team is due for an offensive resurgence. They still average 78.0 PPG on the year. Toledo is not a good defensive team as they rank a woeful 258th nationally in defensive efficiency. Expect this to be a high-scoring game. 8* Over Buffalo/Toledo

10* Oklahoma City (8:00 ET): Back on Tuesday, I noted how the Pelicans have been doing with Zion Williamson. Since he debuted, the team’s record is 6-4 SU w/ him missing one of the losses. I had New Orleans Tuesday, in a home game vs. Portland, but if you read that analysis then you know it was more of a fade on a Blazers team that more often than not struggles on the road. Sure enough, they prevailed by 21 points. They’re at home again Thursday, but playing against what I consider a more formidable team. 

Oklahoma City has been one of the big surprises of the first half of the season. Having already gone over their season win total (31.5), they lead the league with a 34-19-1 ATS record. That said, they did just drop a home game to San Antonio Tuesday night 114-106 as an eight-point favorite. Count on them bouncing back here though. Incredibly, they have gone 20-5 ATS on the road, so they are a much bigger threat than the Blazers were. While tonight’s number is short, it’s worth noting OKC is 21-8 ATS getting points.

The Thunder are also 3-0 vs. the Pelicans this season. The three wins were all relatively close and when New Orleans didn’t have Williamson in the lineup. Nevertheless, my view is that OKC is the better team here. The Pelicans still have massive defensive issues in that they give up 117.2 points per game. That’s the most in the Western Conference and things really haven’t been much better since Williamson arrived. In each of the L5 games, NO has allowed at least 117 pts. 10* Oklahoma City

10* Under Nevada/UNLV (10:00 ET): I’ll be taking in this game in person! That’s right, I plan on being at the Thomas & Mack Center this evening as UNLV hosts in-state rival Nevada. Like everyone else in the Mountain West, these teams find themselves staring up at undefeated San Diego State. Both have five losses in conference play, which ties them for second. Nevada won the first meeting 86-72 in Reno as they were four-point favorites. But you should look for the Wolf Pack’s scoring to drop off tonight. 

UNLV has not shot well recently, making less than 40% of its FG attempts over the L5 games. That’s helped put an end to what was a seven-game Over streak for the Runnin’ Rebels. The last two games have both gone Under as they’ve scored just 54 and 68 points. The 68 was enough to get by Fresno State at home over the weekend and the Rebels have been pretty good at the defensive end here, giving up just 65.9 PPG. So, again, Nevada isn’t going to be scoring anywhere close to the 86 pts they had in the 1st meeting.

I know the Wolf Pack are coming off a couple of high-scoring wins. They put 88 on the board against Air Force and 95 against San Jose State. But again, those were home games, not to mention against two of the worst teams in the league. Nevada averages 81.8 PPG in Reno but just 70.1 on the road. Not to beat a dead horse, but that’s the key here. If the Wolf Pack are to sweep the season series, it will be because they are holding conference opponents to 40.7% shooting this year. 10* Under Nevada/UNLV

10* Miami (9:05 ET): Oddsmakers would appear to be “begging” you to take Utah here as the line has been set low. The Jazz have won three straight, one of them a “controversial” win over Miami and the other two being upsets of Houston and Dallas on the road. So they are hot. And we know Miami struggles on the road. But the Heat finally did win a game on this “West Coast” swing by beating Golden State 113-101 (-7) on Monday. Jimmy Butler is now back in the lineup after missing two games, which obviously makes the Heat a more formidable team.

Personally, I don’t see any issue with the line here as these teams come into Wednesday with the exact same records and are both in fourth place in their respective conferences. I won’t run from the fact the Heat are just 13-15 SU on the road, but note they are only being outscored on average by 2.4 points in those games. Utah’s three game win streak has seen them prevail by three, one and four points. They haven’t won a game by more than five points since 1.22 against Golden State!

So I think there’s a pretty viable scenario that the Heat could lose this game and still cover. After all, the reverse of that happened when the Jazz visited Miami back on 12.27. The Heat won 107-104, but Utah got the cash as 4.5 point dogs. Of course, I very much give the Heat a chance to win this game as they are a much better team with Butler back in the lineup. The Jazz have not been playing great defense recently and aren’t about to approach the 59.0 FG% they had Monday vs. Dallas. Take the points. 10* Miami

10* Over Utah St/Colorado St (9:30 ET): Utah State is 19-7 SU but it’s been a disappointing season. They’ve had to sit back and watch Mt West rival San Diego State explode on the national scene as the only unbeaten team left in College Basketball. They’ve already lost twice to the Aztecs, so USU’s path to the Big Dance probably goes through the conference tourney. The Aggies have won two straight, but both wins were at home. It remains to be seen if they can do it on the road where they are 1-4 SU in conference play. 

Colorado State is on a three-game win streak and they have scored 80 or more in every victory. All three games went Over, obviously something that caught our eye. The Rams are a team that can definitely score and it’s not just a recent trend. They average 76.5 PPG for the year and that number jumps to almost 80 PPG here in Fort Collins. They did not have a good night at the offensive end when they visited Utah State last month, scoring only 61 points on 37.3% shooting. It goes without saying they should be better tonight. 

Utah State shot the lights out in that game, making 59% of their FG attempts. Clearly, it’s going to be very difficult to replicate that kind of proficiency here. But the big key is at the other end. The number of points the Aggies are allowing on the road vs. at home is quite the split, especially when factoring in only conference games. Take away the Wyoming game and the Aggies have allowed at least 70 in every MWC road game and 79 or more in three of the four. 10* Over Utah St/Colorado St

10* Under Spurs/Thunder (8:05 ET): The “Rodeo Road Trip” is something the Spurs have been dealing with for decades. But this year’s is going as poorly as any in history. They’ve lost the first five games and in doing so they have allowed an average of 122.2 PPG. Last night was a 127-120 loss in Denver, which was actually the closest the Spurs have been in any game on this trip since the first one against the Clippers. Tonight they are in OKC to face the surprising Thunder, who have already gone over their projected season win total of 31.5. 

The Thunder have won 9 of their last 11 games. But one of those two losses came Sunday, here at home vs. Boston. They lost 112-111 but did cover the 1.5-point spread. That’s a very good (and hot!) Celtics team, so there’s no reason for OKC to hang its collective head in shame. What’s interesting is that the 112 pts allowed were the most in any game since a win over Orlando on 1.22. They’ve been doing a lot better than the Spurs recently, giving up just 104.6 PPG in their L5 contests. 

Despite the Spurs’ defensive deficiencies, I like this one to go Under. The teams met last month in San Antonio and the Thunder prevailed 109-103. That game had a total of 217.0. The Spurs shot 41.9% from three-point range in that game, something they almost certainly won’t repeat tonight. With the Thunder, it’s the number that’s key. In games with a total of 220 or higher, the Under is 16-3 for them this season. That includes 9-2 at home. 10* Under Spurs/Thunder

10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Since Zion Williamson debuted, the Pelicans have gone 5-4 SU. They’ve won B2B games, putting up 124 and 125 pts in road wins over Indiana and Chicago. Ironically, Williamson did not play in Saturday’s win over the Pacers, nor did All-Star Brandon Ingram. At least Williamson will return tonight for a key home game against a Portland team that has won six of eight and is 2.5 games ahead of New Orleans in the standings. The Pelicans are 2-0 SU/ATS vs. the Blazers this year, both wins coming before X-Mas and thus w/o Williamson. 

As stated above, New Orleans isn’t the only team surging here. Portland has won six of eight. But those two losses have something in common in that they were both on the road. Exactly one week ago, we faded them at Denver and they lost by 28 points. Then came a controversial loss in Utah where Damian Lillard was robbed of a potential GW basket when an obvious goaltending was not called. It must be mentioned that the Blazers are still only 10-18 SU on the road this season. 

New Orleans is 7-1 ATS this season when playing with two days rest. That win in Indiana took place Saturday. Again, this is a really key game as the Pelicans need to jump three teams, Portland among them, to get the #8 seed in the Western Conference. Despite the slow start to the season, NO very much has a similar statistical profile to the teams they are competing with. That loss in Denver last week showed how much the Blazers’ scoring drops off on the road. 10* New Orleans

8* Purdue (6:30 ET): I cannot stress enough just how loaded the Big 10 is this year. The conference has 12 of its members ranked among my top 40 teams in the country! Perhaps the most interesting of those 12 is Purdue, a 14-10 SU team that I call one of my top 15 in the country! Go ahead and disregard that record as I’ve long believed the Boilermakers are set to go on a big run. We’re already starting to see signs of a surge w/ them winning their last three games, two of which were on the road.

Penn State is ranked (#13) coming into this game and that seems about right to me. The Nittany Lions are having a breakthrough season and lately they’ve been getting the job done for bettors, not only winning six in a row straight up, but covering the spread in all six games as well. That includes wins at Michigan and Michigan State. Because of that they figure to be a popular dog tonight, but I’m going in the opposite direction.

Penn State is just 2-17 SU its last 19 visits to West Lafayette. Purdue is 10-2 SU at home this season and winning by an average of more than 20 PPG. Their last time here saw them absolutely crush a very good Iowa team, 104-68. They followed that up w/ their largest win at Assembly Hall in Indiana in more than 40 years (74-62). Those two games have seen the Boilermakers shoot a jaw-dropping 54% from three-point range. They’ve covered 8 of the 12 home games and are 41-3 SU their L44 here overall. 8* Purdue

10* Sacramento (8:05 ET): Milwaukee is obviously an elite team with few holes as we approach the All-Star Break. In fact, I don’t think it’s going out on a limb to say the Bucks are - rather easily - the top team in the league right now. Since X-Mas, they’ve gone 18-2 SU including perfect 4-0 start to February. This stretch includes an easy 21-point win at Sacramento on January 10th, but for a variety of reasons I’m expecting things to be closer here. This will end up being the most points Sacramento gets in any game all season. 

Despite what the final score ended up being, the Kings actually fought valiantly against the Bucks last month, rallying to take the lead in the 3Q after trailing by as many as 18 early. But a -20 discrepancy in attempts at the FT line was too much to overcome as were 16 turnovers and poor 3-point shooting. That loss ended up being the start of a five-game SU/ATS slide for the Kings, but they’ll arrive in Milwaukee in much better form. They’ve won and covered three straight including 122-102 over San Antonio Saturday night. 

Now skeptics will point to the fact that all three wins came in Sacramento. But I’m not expecting a win here. However, the number is such that a play on the Kings plus the points is warranted. They are 9-2 ATS the last 11 times they’ve gotten at least 12.5 points from the oddsmakers. Also, there’s a chance Giannis Antetokounmpo may not play tonight for the Bucks (“personal reasons”). So I’d bet this one quickly as the line should come down by several points if Antetokounmpo is out. Regardless, I see the Kings covering. 10* Sacramento

10* Under FSU/Duke (7:00 ET): Duke survived a huge scare Saturday as they rallied to defeat rival North Carolina in overtime, 98-96. Down 13 with just 4 ½ minutes to go in regulation and five with 20 seconds left, the Blue Devils somehow forced overtime and then won at the buzzer. Thus, they’ve five in a row overall, the last three of which all came on the road. It’s the first time Duke swept a three-game road trip in over 40 years! This is a rare situation where a showdown w/ a fellow Top 10 opponent might actually be a letdown spot. 

For the second straight week, Florida State plays on Big Monday. Last week, they faced North Carolina and won a low-scoring affair 65-59 (were 8 pt chalk). The Seminoles followed that up by crushing Miami 99-81, making it three straight wins as well as 13 wins in the last 14 games. Both teams come into tonight at 20-3 SU overall and 10-2 SU in ACC play. It’s obviously a big edge for Duke getting the game in Durham, although FSU did win at L’ville earlier in the year. Both sides have been going Over a lot recently, but given the respective situations, I look for a different kind of game tonight. 

Duke is 7-1 Over its last eight games while Florida State is 7-2 Over its last nine. While tonight’s O/U line is right in line with what we’re accustomed to seeing for both teams, take note that FSU is off its best shooting night in over a month and it came against the last place team in the conference. Duke’s previous scoring effort was obviously aided by OT. We’re looking at two Top 20 teams in terms of defensive efficiency here. FSU has held ACC opponents below 40% shooting so far while Duke isn’t far behind that number here at home. 10* Under FSU/Duke

10* Utah (7:05 ET): From now until the end of the regular season, there figures to be a LOT of movement among the six teams behind the Lakers in the Western Conference. The teams currently seeded #2 through #7 are separated by just five games and most of them have taken a turn at the #2 spot. Utah was once the hottest team in the NBA as from 12/11 through 1/25 they won 19 of 21 games. But prior to scoring a controversial win over Portland on Friday night, they’d lost five in a row. They are 0-6 ATS the L6 games. 

Because of the controversial nature of the victory Friday night (goaltending was not called on what would have been the GW basket for Portland), my guess is there won’t be many people looking to step out and take the Jazz here. But I’m not afraid as they’ve got revenge on the mind here from an embarrassing loss on 1/27 where the Rockets played without both James Harden and Russell Westbrook. That’s what began the Jazz’s current slide. Let’s not forget, they also have revenge for last year’s playoff exit.

Speaking of bad losses, Houston just took one on the chin Friday, losing at Phoenix 127-91. That snapped a four-game win streak. The Rockets have gone 10 games w/o losing two straight, but I’m still liking the points here as Utah has not been a dog since 12.28 when they went to LA and upset the Clippers. They have won (outright) the last three times they’ve been in the underdog role. I’ve got the Jazz rated slightly higher than the Rockets in my own power ratings. 10* Utah

10* Clemson (6:00 ET): The largest gap in the ACC standings exists between the top three and the rest of the field (three games). After L’ville, Duke & Florida State, the next nine teams are separated by only 2.5 games. These two schools are among that group of nine, but seem to be trending in opposite directions as Notre Dame has won and covered three straight while Clemson is coming off two straight losses. Sometimes though, handicapping a game can be as simple as who has the home court edge. That’s the case here. 

Both Clemson losses in the last week have been on the road. They scored only 44 points against both Wake Forest and Virginia, not something the Tigers should be proud of in the least. But there’s been a bit of a predictable pattern to their games this year, at least in ACC play. The last four road games - all losses with them scoring no more than 62 points. The last four home games - all wins with them scoring at least 71 points. That includes an upset of Duke (79-72, +10.5) back on January 14th, which came on the heels of the program’s 1st ever win at North Carolina. 

Similarly, ND has looked good at home recently with the entirety of the 3-game win streak coming in South Bend. Those three wins also all came against teams in the bottom half of the ACC. We’re about to find out what the Fighting Irish are made of as their next three games are on the road. The Irish are just 2-5 SU outside of South Bend this year. Clemson has proven it can beat the “big boys” (UNC and Duke in a 4-day span) and holds teams to 62.2 PPG at home. This has “bounce back” written all over it. 10* Clemson

10* Over Oregon/Oregon State (10:30 ET): The “Civil War” may not mean as much on the basketball court (compared to the football field), but spirits should be high tonight in Corvallis as Oregon State is having one of its better seasons in a long time. Of course, Oregon has developed into a mainstay atop the Pac 12 and the Ducks come into Saturday as the highest ranked team in the conference and tied for first place with Colorado. These teams are a combined 30-15 Over this season and I look for a high-scoring game.

Oregon is off a loss, but that was to a Stanford team that is quietly one of the best in the country at the defensive end. The Cardinal rank 5th nationally in defensive efficiency (look out for them in the Tournament?) and held the Ducks well below their scoring average on Thursday night. The 70-60 final was emblematic of a Stanford-type game, not an Oregon one, as the Ducks are 8th in the country in offensive efficiency, but 94th in defensive efficiency. It’s a good thing then that they aren’t facing Stanford tonight.

Oregon State plays similar to Oregon. The Beavers are 26th in offensive efficiency, but a horrendous 199th in defensive efficiency. This all but guarantees a bounce back game at the offensive end for the Ducks, who come in averaging 76.8 points per game. Oregon State has won just one of its last six games, leaving them at 13-9 SU, but as I said earlier this is one of the better teams coming out of Corvallis in many years. They shoot 48.2% at home. The Over is 5-0 when the Beavers are the underdog. 10* Over Oregon/Oregon State

10* St. Mary’s (10:00 ET): We all know Gonzaga is “head and shoulders” above the rest of the West Coast Conference, but if there’s one rival known to give them fits it would be St. Mary’s. The Gaels have won two of the last five head to head meetings outright including LY’s WCC Tourney Final. Gonzaga may come into this game at 24-1 SU overall and 10-0 in conference play with those 10 victories coming by an average of 23.0 PPG. But they’ve failed to cover the L3 games and if they were to lose a WCC game outright, it would be this one. Take the points. 

In the last 10 days, I’ve actually faded both of these teams. St. Mary’s, I faded exactly one week ago at BYU. As a dog, they led most of the way and ended up covering the spread in an 81-79 loss. So I was wrong there. The Gaels have since bounced back with a 66-60 win at San Diego, though they did not cover the 11-point spread. Looking at their three WCC losses this year, two have been by two points or less while the other was a quadruple overtime game. Gonzaga may be the most efficient offense in the country but SMU also happens to be in the top 10. 

Gonzaga has gone 751 days w/o losing a regular season conference game. The last loss came January 18th, 2018 -- to St. Mary’s. Despite the perceived invincibility, oddsmakers seem to have caught up to the Zags, who have failed to cover three in a row including our Game of the Week on Santa Clara last Thursday. So let’s make it two straight weeks going against Gonzaga with a GOW play as this is the only time SMU will be a home dog this season. They are allowing only 62.5 PPG at home. 10* St. Mary’s

10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): The number 13 proved NOT to be unlucky for the Raptors last night as they won their 13th straight game (a franchise record), 115-106 at Indiana. Two nights prior, they beat the Pacers here at home on a buzzer-beater, which was the closest call during the win streak. Now 38-14 SU and in second place in the Eastern Conference, Toronto does find itself in a bit of a tough spot Saturday laying this many points to Brooklyn. This will be only the third time during the win streak that the Raptors have had to play a back to back.

Of course, the Nets won’t have Kyrie Irving in the lineup tonight. But they should be used to that by now as Irving has played in only 20 of the team’s 50 games this season. The Nets are off a couple of impressive home victories, both of which saw them cover the spread. It was double digit victories over the Suns and Warriors, the latter coming by 41 points, the largest MOV the Nets have had in a game all season. That game was played Wednesday, so Brooklyn clearly is the more rested team here.

Health issues aren’t exclusive to the Brooklyn side here. Toronto has been as banged up as almost any team in the league this year, making their WL record all the more impressive. But last night saw Kyle Lowry go down with an injury and he’s not expected to play tonight. That makes three starters absent for the Raptors as both Marc Gasol and Norman Powell are both out indefinitely as well. Brooklyn will be highly motivated here as they’ve lost five straight to the Raptors and nine in a row in Toronto. This is their chance to put an end to a lot of streaks. Take the points. 10* Brooklyn

8* Temple (12:00 ET): We revisit the American Conference early Saturday afternoon as SMU visits Philly to face Temple. For the past several years, SMU has been a really good home team. But outside of Moody Coliseum, they are just 9-19 straight up the last three seasons. That includes just 1-3 SU on the conference road this season with the most recent defeat coming at Cincinnati, a little over a week ago. Since suffering that 22-point defeat, the Mustangs have played only one time. It was a 15-point home win over last place Tulane. 

Temple hasn’t been as good as usual this year (just 9-13 SU) and since we turned the calendar to 2020 things have really taken a downturn. The Owls are only 2-8 SU their L10 games after a 79-65 loss at Memphis earlier in the week. But they did beat arguably the top team in the American, Wichita State, here at home. They also won their last home game, 76-64 over East Carolina, covering a 10.5-pt spread. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, Temple has gone 6-1 ATS the L3 seasons.

Three of SMU’s four road wins this year have been by four points or less, so the overall record could be a lot worse. Temple might only be 6-4 SU at home this year, but they are 27-11 SU here the L3 seasons. SMU is -1.8 points per game on the road while Temple is +7.4. I don’t think the Owls should be the dog here. I know SMU won by 16 in Dallas, but that was a terrible shooting night for Temple as they made only 32.7% of their shots, including a stunning 12 of 37 on 2-pt attempts. While SMU may lead the conference in scoring, Temple held them below their average last month and has allowed 68 pts or less in 14 of 22 games. 8* Temple

10* Over Blazers/Jazz (10:35 ET): For more than a month, Utah was the hottest team in basketball. From 12/11 through 1/25, they won 19 of 21 games to get as high as second place in the Western Conference. But all of a sudden, things have taken a sharp turn with them losing five straight while also going 0-5 ATS. Tonight they host a team that has ironically swung in the other direction. Portland is 5-1 SU/ATS its last six games to get within four games of .500 and 2.5 games of the 8th and final playoff spot.

The Blazers played last night and won 125-117 at home vs. San Antonio. A 40-point 4Q is what propelled them to victory as Damian Lillard had another great individual performance and the team shot 53.3% overall including 18 of 37 from three-point range. They got to 125 pts despite taking only 12 free throw attempts. It was the 4th straight Blazers that went Over the total and I should also point out that it was the eighth time in their L10 games surrendering at least 117 points. Last time on the road, they gave up 127 at Denver. 

These teams just met Saturday in Portland w/ the Blazers coming out on top by a score of 124-107. Four days later the Jazz played in Denver (one day after Portland did) and they lost 98-95. After some poor shooting efforts, I look for the Jazz to pick it up offensively tonight at home where they average 111 PPG on 48% shooting. Wednesday was the first time they were held below 100 points since December 9th. Whether they win or lose, a bounce back offensively is all but inevitable here. 10* Over Blazers/Jazz

10* Illinois (8:00 ET): We all know just how loaded the Big 10 is. So these two teams should be commended for entering Friday night’s showdown on FS-1 in a first place tie with one another. Maryland being tied for first is not that big of a surprise as the Terps were expected to be near the top of the league standings (most had them finishing 2nd behind Michigan State). Illinois is a surprise as they were pegged for a “middle of the pack” finish. While their seven-game win streak was snapped Sunday in Iowa, the Illini are my pick to get the cash Friday as they are back in Champaign-Urbana where they’ve gone 12-1 SU this season. 

Maryland comes into this game on a five-game win streak and has held its last two opponents to less than 37% shooting. They are coming off a hard-fought 54-51 win over Rutgers Tuesday night as they held the Scarlet Knights to 33.8%. But that was in College Park. The Terrapins are just 2-4 SU in “true” road games this season and despite winning the last two, their defense wasn’t nearly as tight as both opponents (Northwestern, Indiana) shot north of 50% from the field. 

Illinois should be the more motivated team tonight as not only are they coming off a loss, but they’ve also got revenge on the mind from a 59-58 loss at Maryland back in December. That game saw the Illini blow a 14-pt halftime lead. They are the more rested team coming into this rematch with two extra days of prep time. They have covered all times this year as a home favorite of three points or less. 10* Illinois

8* Harvard (5:00 ET): One of college sports’ most prominent rivalries is renewed on the basketball court Friday night with Harvard taking on Yale. Yale is the consensus top team in the Ivy League this year and they should be considering they not only boast a perfect conference record (4-0 SU) but are also 16-5 SU overall and 13-4 ATS. Those four conference wins have all been by double digits and by an average of 17.8 points per game. They are definitely a team to be reckoned with.

However, Yale is not only facing a chief rival here but also a team that is an amazing 20-4 ATS the L24 times it has been an underdog. While Harvard is 0-4 ATS in Ivy League play and 0-5 ATS its L5 overall, they were actually favored in all of those games. After opening the conference slate by sweeping a home and home from Dartmouth, last week was not a good one for the Crimson as they lost by three at Penn and by one at Princeton. Incredibly, seven of Harvard’s last eight games have been decided by five points or less. But because they were favored in all but one, they haven’t been doing well ATS.

But the one time in that stretch that Harvard was catching points, they won outright at UC Irvine (top team in Big West). As mentioned above, the Crimson have been nothing short of extraordinary as underdogs, not only covering 20 of the last 24 opportunities but also winning 11 of those outright! They may only be 1-4 SU/ATS vs. Yale the L2 seasons, but the one win came here in New Haven last season - as six-point pups. While there’s no Bryce Aiken (injured since December), Harvard can absolutely still win this game. Yale has yet to beat or even face a top four Ivy League team. 8* Harvard

10* Philadelphia (8:05 ET): Anyone that’s been following the Sixers this year knows that their home vs road splits are as dramatic as any team in the league. While 22-2 SU at home (+10.4 PPG), Philadelphia is 9-18 on the road and being outscored by 4.7 PPG. The L3 games have really driven the point at home as they’ve lost by double digits at Atlanta (10), Boston (21) and Miami (31). Tonight they’re in Milwaukee to face the best team in basketball. While history certainly suggests the 76ers will lose this game, it won’t be by as much as you might think.

Note that even with the horrible start to the current road trip, the Sixers are only getting outscored on average of 4.7 points per game on the road. Obviously, that number has gone up over the L3 games. The Sixers are just 9-17-1 ATS on the road, but what this is a reflection of is they rarely - if ever - are a dog of this size. Previous to this, the most points the 76ers have ever gotten in a game this year was 6.5. Also remember that they beat the Bucks 121-109 on X-Mas Day (at home) and led that game by 27 going into the 4Q.

Now there’s no denying that the Bucks are an awesome team that’s out for revenge. But an interesting thing I’m seeing is that they are “only” 9-6 SU vs. .500 or better opponents this season and 6-9 ATS. So they’ve really been feasting on non-winning teams. Philadelphia may not be a good road team, but they are still a good team overall and come in with a 31-20 overall SU record. Expect a tight game that might even be a little lower-scoring than anticipated. 10* Philadelphia

10* Tulsa (7:00 ET): You may be surprised to learn that it is Tulsa - not Wichita State, Memphis or even Houston - leading the American Conference right now with a 7-1 SU record. The Golden Hurricane picked up a huge 54-51 win over Wichita State this past weekend, a game in which they were at home but also getting points. Incredibly, Tulsa’s last four SU wins have all come as underdogs. They’ve now won and covered each of their last six games, five of them coming as underdogs. Thus, it’s interesting that tonight they are favored. 

While favored, it still seems as if the market isn’t respecting the leaders in the American. It’s only a small number that they are laying to a UConn team that is subpar at best. The Huskies come in at 11-10 SU overall, but are 0-5 in “true” road games and just 2-6 SU in conference games. This once proud program has taken a severe nosedive in recent years. It’s only win over the L6 games came as a 4.5-pt home favorite vs. Temple. They were beaten 70-63 at Memphis on Saturday, failing to cover as 5-pt dogs.

This is the second meeting of the season between these teams. Tulsa, not surprisingly, won the first. It was a 79-75 final where the Golden Hurricane came in 5.5 point underdogs. UConn shot poorly in that game (below 40%) and that should be expected again here w/ Tulsa only allowing 60.4 PPG at home. On the flip side, Tulsa made just three 3-pointers in the first meeting and that number should at least double here. In a battle between the first place and second to last place team in a conference, the former should be laying more than this at home. It’s that simple. Tulsa is an underrated team right now. 10* Tulsa

10* Indiana (7:35 ET): Toronto has surged into second place in the Eastern Conference on the back of an 11-game win streak. During the win streak, the Raptors are averaging 120.7 points per game on 50.4% shooting overall, including 39.7% from three-point range. That sounds really impressive, and it is, but it’s also unsustainable. Sunday against the Bulls, they shot 56% overall and made 16 of 34 three-point attempts. This is a team averaging 112.6 PPG on 45.8% shooting for the season. Eventually, they are going to have an “off-night.” 

The fact that Toronto comes into Tuesday w/ a 36-14 SU record is made all the more impressive by the fact they are 5th in most man games lost. The four teams ahead of them on that list (Warriors, Wizards, Blazers & Pistons) are a combined 69-130 SU. Right now, front line players Marc Gasol and Norman Powell are both out. Yet six different players have led the team in scoring during the 11-game win streak. By the way, a win tonight would set a new franchise record for consecutive SU wins. 

Another streak on the line here is Toronto’s 11-0 SU run at home against Indiana. But the Pacers did prevail (in overtime) at home against the Raptors back on December 23rd. That was w/o Victor Oladipo, who is now three games into his return. The last two haven’t gone well as the Pacers lost outright as favorites both times. But now they’re an underdog, a role which I believe serves them well. Unlike some of the other top teams in the East, Indiana is actually a good road team (13-12 SU record). In the end, I simply believe Toronto is “due” to drop one. 10* Indiana

8* Butler (6:30 ET): The last time these teams met (Jan 21), Villanova won rather comfortably. It was a 76-61 final (Nova -3.5), but that was in Philly obviously. Butler now gets its chance to play host as the teams come in ranked #10 and #19 respectively. The Bulldogs have lost only two home games all year, but come into this rematch having dropped four of six overall after a 15-1 SU start. Villanova is also off a loss, 76-61 (oh, the irony!) to Creighton at home. They were 6.5-pt favorites as their seven-game win streak came to an end.

Butler also lost as a 6.5-point favorite their last time out. It was not a good effort against Providence, which was a home game. It was also the third straight game w/o PG Aaron Thompson. For the first time, it looked like the Bulldogs really missed him. They missed 14 of 15 three-point attempts and turned it over 15 times. I can’t see them losing for a second straight time at home, however. They give up just 57.6 points per game here. Visiting teams are making just 27.6% of three-point attempts. Villanova, for all its success, has made only 40.8% of its FG attempts in conference play. 

Butler is just 1-5 SU/ATS its last six meetings with Villanova including four straight losses. So you know they’ll come out motivated. When I look at Villanova being ranked #10, I can’t help but think that’s too high. I have them on the fringes of the Top 20 and KenPom agrees, having them at #23. Four of their seven wins during the recently ended streak were by six points or less. 8* Butler

10* Denver (9:05 ET): You may have recently read (see Sunday analysis) how I’m not a huge buyer on the Nuggets vis a vis the other top teams in the West. But tonight is a much better situation for them than it was Sunday in Detroit when they lost outright in overtime, 128-123. This is a home game and the Nuggets will be hosting a Portland team that’s likely on fumes following three consecutive outright upsets of its own. The Blazers have won four in a row overall, also going 4-0 ATS. But they are 0-2 SU/ATS vs. Denver so far this season.

While I did cash the Pistons on Super Bowl Sunday, it bears mentioning that the Nuggets had a big lead early - by as many as 21 points. Prior to blowing that lead and losing, Denver had beaten both Utah (hot team) and won at Milwaukee (league’s best team) as a 13-point underdog. They did so while being relatively short-handed. One thing we can count on with the Nuggets now that they are back home is defense - they are giving up just 103.7 PPG at home this season. They allow just 99.7 PPG in division contests. 

Led by a jaw-dropping offensive display from PG Damian Lillard, the Blazers have become viable again for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Lillard is averaging 48.8 points and 10.2 assists over the last six games. Portland has won all of those but one, however only one came on the road. The Blazers are only 10-16 SU on the road for this season with the team’s overall scoring declining by about seven points from when they play at home. As an underdog, they get outscored by 6.3 PPG. 10* Denver

10* Kansas State (9:00 ET): With easy wins (both by double digits) over Iowa State and TCU, #1 Baylor figures to hold the top spot in the new poll that comes out later today. The Bears assumed that spot two weeks ago in the AP and last week in the Coaches, moving past Gonzaga. I think I speak for a lot of people though when I say the Bears are probably NOT the best team in America. There’s still a handful of teams I’d favor over them in a neutral setting (one in their own conference - Kansas) Tonight, they put their 18-game win streak (nation’s longest) on the line at the “Octagon of Doom” in Manhattan, KS.

Kansas State is not having a particularly good season as they are just 9-12 SU overall. But the Wildcats have covered three straight, including at West Virginia on Saturday. They also defeated the Mountaineers here in Manhattan. All but one of KSU’s victories this season have been at home where they’re 8-3 SU overall and holding teams to only 59.5 PPG. They were a seven-point home dog when they beat WVU here, 84-68. 

Look for Wildcats’ leading scorer Xavier Sneed (14.4 PPG) to have a big, bounce-back game tonight. He’s struggled some recently, including tallying only 11 pts in the loss to WVU over the weekend. That game saw the team shoot just 3 of 17 from three-point range. At home, Sneed and the Wildcats figure to shoot much better. Baylor has clearly been impressive all season long, but in what figures to be a low-scoring, defensive-minded game, I want the points. Baylor has not shot better than 45% in any game in 2020. 10* Kansas State

10* Washington (7:05 ET): It’s not all that often you see the Wizards favored and the fact that they would be laying points to Golden State is something that could not have been believed at the start of the season. But we know how things have gone for the Warriors this year with both “Splash Brothers” (Curry & Thompson) out, leaving the team as a shell of its former championship self. Despite a convincing win the other night in Cleveland, the Dubs still have the worst overall record in the league at 11-39 SU.

The Wizards have been a disaster defensively this season, ranking last in the league in efficiency and points allowed. Fortunately for them though, Golden State has been pretty bad defensively as well. Over the last six games, the fewest points allowed by the Warriors was 112 and that came in the win Saturday at Cleveland. Meanwhile, Washington has actually held its last two opponents to 107 pts and as a result won both games. It should be noted the Wizards do allow far less PPG here at home than on the road.

I like the matchup for Washington for several reasons. One is that Golden State is playing for a fourth straight time on the road and all of those games have been out East. It was a rare good game for Warriors on Saturday, but that also came at the expense of the worst team in the league. Before that, they’d lost 15 of 16 overall and had gone nearly two months w/o a road win. This will be the Wizards’ third straight game at home and leading scorer Bradley Beal has been motivated by being “snubbed” as an All-Star. 10* Washington

10* Detroit (12:35 ET): The Pistons did make the playoffs LY as an 8-seed. But with the top of the Eastern Conference having collectively improved this year, the Pistons have seemingly been “left in the dust” and are further away from contending than they’ve been in awhile. It hasn’t helped that they’ve regressed. Part of the story has been injuries. January ended with Detroit going 0-5 SU and ATS its last five games. I just played against them Friday night. But I’ll be singing a much “different tune” here on Sunday. 

I’ve said it before - Denver has been a big overachiever the last two seasons. They finished second in the Western Conference a season ago despite several teams behind them having better YTD point differentials. The same thing is happening this year as they are again 2nd in the West even though FIVE teams behind them have better point differentials. That all being said, the Nuggets are off a somewhat shocking win on Friday night as they went to Milwaukee and beat the Bucks 127-115 as a 13-point underdog. They also won at home vs. Utah Thursday night.

What makes those two wins even more shocking is that the Nuggets were short-handed for both. Starting backcourt Murray and Harris missed both games as did forward Paul Milsap and backup Mason Plumlee. HC Michael Malone has recently talked about resting players due to increased workloads, particularly Nikola Jokic. Detroit has its own injury issues, but Denver is 3-8 ATS after scoring 115+ points their previous game and only +1.8 PPG on the road. Look for the Pistons to pull the upset. They’re sick of losing. 10* Detroit

8* BYU (10:00 ET): As I went over on Thursday, the West Coast Conference has basically become “Gonzaga & everyone else competing for second place.” This has been the case going back many seasons. Since their arrival into the WCC mix back in 2011, BYU has finished either second or third in the conference every season. Of course, the other perennial challenger to Gonzaga is St. Mary’s. Sure enough, St. Mary’s & BYU come into tonight in 2nd and 3rd place respectively in the WCC. But I’ve got a strong preference here.

While unranked, most power rating systems (including my own!) consider BYU to be a Top 25 team (in the country) this year. KenPom has them #18 while BPI (ESPN) has them #27. All three of the Cougars’ WCC losses have come on the road, two of them coming by three points or less and the other at Gonzaga. They have revenge here having fallen at St. Mary’s 87-84 back on January 9th. Sure enough, I cashed St. Mary’s (-2.5) in that game, which went to overtime. But things should turn out much differently here in Provo where BYU is 10-1 SU and outscoring teams by 22.3 PPG. 

Three of BYU’s losses this year came against Gonzaga, San Diego State and Kansas. All three of those teams are currently projected to be #1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. All three losses came when BYU’s best player, Yoeli Childs, was suspended. They were also without Childs when they lost to St. Mary’s, one of four losses by either one point or in overtime for the Cougars. The bottom line is that this team is better than its WL record as we saw in a 27-point win (107-80 over Pepperdine) on Thursday as Childs led the way with 21 pts. This time St. Mary’s has to contend with him and I think the number here speaks volumes. 8* BYU

10* Under Sixers/Celtics (8:35 ET): This is the primetime game on ABC as we get two of the Eastern Conference’s best teams squaring off. Boston is in a third place tie with Miami right now, but interestingly enough only two teams in the entire league (Bucks, Lakers) can claim to having a better YTD point differential than the Celtics. Getting this game at home is pretty huge for them (Boston) as Philly is only 9-16 SU on the road, compared to 22-2 SU at home. The 76ers are currently 6th in the East, two games back of the Celtics.

Boston has won five of its last six games (also 5-1 ATS) including two straight. In the five wins, they’ve allowed no more than 107 points. The one loss saw them concede 123 to the Pelicans, but that was on the road and the game still stayed Under. That’s part of a 5-game Under streak the Celtics carry into tonight. Boston is top five in the league in defensive efficiency and I expect them to hold the Sixers offense, which is averaging just 106.1 PPG on the road, in check tonight. 

But the Celtics may have a problem on the offensive end here as Kemba Walker is questionable with a knee injury. That same knee caused him to miss a game in January and Walker scored only 13 points (5 of 13 shooting) in Thursday’s win over Golden State. Enes Kanter may also be out because of a hip injury. The 76ers have really had the Celtics’ number as they look to make it a 4-0 season sweep tonight. In the previous three matchups, they’ve held Boston to an average of just 100 PPG. The Sixers are 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency, but only 19th in offensive efficiency. 10* Under Sixers/Celtics

10* Cincinnati (6:00 ET): With Memphis predictably underachieving, a “vacuum” was created in the American Conference and both of these teams have moved their way to the top. Houston leads with a 7-1 SU conference record, but Cincy is just a game back as they’ve won three in a row heading into this Saturday showdown. That means a win here would pull the Bearcats even with the Cougars and possibly into a first place tie depending on what Tulsa (6-1) does today vs. Wichita State. The stakes are high here. 

Cincy has been rolling here at home so they’ve got to be loving the fact they get to host tonight. The Bearcats have had four conference home games so far. They’ve won all of them by at least 16 points. That includes a 31-point drubbing of Tulsa back on January 8th. Tuesday, they won by 22 against SMU, holding the Mustangs to just 43 points on 25.9% shooting. Looking at the Bearcats’ 13-7 SU record, it could be a lot better had they won all five games that either went to OT or were decided by 1 pt (3-2 SU in those games). 

The Bearcats being favored here may surprise some considering Houston is ranked (#21) and generally considered to be the American’s top team. The Cougars have won 15 of their last 17 games including five straight. Despite Houston holding its opponents to 56.6 PPG on 35,4% shooting during the win streak, Cincy actually comes in with the better defensive efficiency rating for the year as it is holding teams to 35.1% shooting at home. The Bearcats can match Houston on the boards, which is key, and they’ve won 40 of the L44 home games. 10* Cincinnati

10* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Raptors have surged into second place in the Eastern Conference, thanks to a nine-game win streak. They look to make it 10 in a row tonight in Detroit as they visit the Pistons. Last night, Toronto escaped Cleveland with a 115-109 win. That one was closer than expected as the underdog Cavaliers rallied late in the fourth quarter. Still, all but one win during this streak has been by five points and thus I’m going to lay the number tonight against a struggling Pistons side.

Detroit is 0-4 SU/ATS its last four games, including a loss to Cleveland. Three of the four losses have been here at home, though the last one - 125-115 to Brooklyn - was on the road. The Pistons defense has been atrocious during the four-game losing streak, giving up 125, 121, 115 and 125 points. All but one opponent shot better than 50%. There’s a big gap in defensive efficiency between these two teams as Toronto ranks 2nd in the league in that department while Detroit is 21st. 

The fact the Pistons shot 50% themselves on the road Wednesday and still lost by double digits is not a good sign. They are just 2-10 SU/2-9-1 ATS this season after scoring 115+ points in their last game. Toronto has already beaten Detroit twice this season, by 12 at home and by 13 on the road. A third double digit win seems likely considering the current state of the Pistons, who are without three of their best players (including Blake Griffin). Toronto is as healthy as its been all year. Detroit is only 9-16 SU at home. 10* Toronto

10* Buffalo (7:00 ET): The MAC has belonged to Buffalo the last couple years as former HC Nate Oats led the program to four NCAA Tournament appearances over the last five seasons, including a pair of wins. Oats has since moved on (to Alabama), but the Bulls showed they are still a team to be reckoned with as they beat Akron (MAC’s best team this year) on the road Tuesday. The 77-74 outright win (as 7.5-pt dogs) improved UB to 5-1 SU its L6 games, the lone loss coming by four points (here at home) to Kent St last Friday. 

I look for the Bulls to go into the weekend a lot happier this time around. Tonight, they’ll host Bowling Green, a team that has won seven in a row. Beating such an opponent may sound like a challenge, but note that the Falcons have been incredibly lucky during this win streak of theirs, prevailing by three points or less four times and by six points or less six times. I’m not saying this is going to be an easy win for Buffalo, but BG is definitely “due” to drop a game and I’m all too willing to lay the small number as a result. 

Bowling Green may have the MAC’s best record (7-1 SU), but Akron and Kent State are probably the two best teams (Akron definitely #1) and that’s who Buffalo has had to face over the past week. Meanwhile, Bowling Green has generally avoided the league’s top teams, save for a 67-61 win over Ball State earlier this week. But that came at home. Buffalo remains one of the country’s highest scoring teams and averages 81.5 PPG when they are at home. While BG may lead the conference, they are just 5th in offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive efficiency. 10* Buffalo

10* Santa Clara (10:30 ET): Santa Clara will try and do here what no WCC team has been able to do since the Tourney Final last year. That’s beat Gonzaga. The #2 ranked Zags have not lost a regular season WCC game since Jan 18, 2018. Both that and LY’s WCC Tourney Final loss were to St. Mary’s. The last time a WCC team other than St. Mary’s beat Gonzaga was Feb 25th, 2017 (BYU). Overall, the Zags have won 57 of their 59 conference games the L3+ seasons, including a 7-0 mark here in 2019-20. So when it comes to pulling an upset, history is definitely NOT on Santa Clara’s side here. 

Fortunately though, there is a pointspread. Now oddsmakers haven’t been much assistance for Santa Clara when facing Gonzaga recently. Two weeks ago in Spokane, they lost by 50 (104-54!) to the Zags. That was their 20th straight loss in the rivalry and the fourth time in the last five meetings Gonzaga won by at least 43 points. After failing to cover the first two WCC games this year, the Zags have now covered five straight coming into tonight. 

But despite the horrible series history, I believe Santa Clara is worth taking plus the points here. It’s a huge difference getting the Zags at home. Santa Clara is 15-1 SU at home this season (only loss was in OT), outscoring teams by 17.4 PPG. The Broncos are coming off a win over San Diego (on the road) and you know revenge has to be on the mind after taking a 50-point drubbing. Gonzaga has a bigger road game (at San Francisco) on deck Saturday, so this one probably won’t have their full attention. 10* Santa Clara

10* Over Hornets/Wizards (7:05 ET): We’ve got two bad teams here, each desperate for a win. Charlotte did win its last game (Tuesday vs. NY), but had lost eight in a row prior to that come from behind effort. Washington, meanwhile, has given up an ungodly 303 total points its last two games combined and neither of those went to overtime! Something has to give here as the Hornets’ last four games have all stayed Under while the Wizards last four games have all gone Over. I think Washington’s trend is the more likely to continue.

It is becoming difficult to explain just how awful the Wizards are defensively. Last in the league in efficiency and points allowed (121.3 per game), they have allowed 134 or more points in four of their last six contests. What makes Tuesday’s 151-131 loss in Milwaukee all the more humiliating is that the Bucks played without Giannis Antetokounmpo, yet still managed to shoot 56.6% from the field including 19 of 36 on three-point attempts. The Wizards allowed 88 points in the first half alone!

Charlotte is the league’s lowest scoring team (103.1 PPG), but it would be foolish to think they are incapable of “going off” against the defensively inept Wizards. They’ve averaged 116 points in two prior meetings with them this season. The lone game here in D.C. was a 125-118 final (in favor of the Wizards) as both teams shot better than 50% and combined to make 28 three-pointers. This is about as low a total as you’re going to get on a Washington game these days, so play accordingly. 10* Over Hornets/Wizards

10* San Antonio (8:35 ET): The Spurs have lost three straight games, all by four points or less. The most recent came in a game where I had the Over, a 110-109 loss in Chicago that was sealed with a pair of last second Zach LaVine free throws. This three-game losing streak has the Spurs stuck in 9th place in the Western Conference, 2.5 games back of Memphis (who won last night). Of course, only the top eight teams make the playoffs, something SA has done for each of the L20+ seasons.

Utah has surged into the top three in the West with a 32-14 SU record. I expected the Jazz to finish among the top four this year and they have been almost unbeatable since X-Mas, going 14-2 straight up, not to mention 13-3 ATS. That all being said, the Jazz did lose on Monday, 126-117 to Houston and the Rockets played w/o both Harden & Westbrook. It was Utah’s first home loss since December 10th. They allowed Eric Gordon to go off for 50 points in a result few, if any, saw coming. While 18-4 SU at home, the Jazz are only 14-10 SU on the road.

Over the next four days, Utah will play not only here, but also at Denver and Portland. Look for them to “give some back” over the course of this trip. San Antonio has not been kind through the years with the Jazz owning an 8-41 SU record and 14-32-3 ATS record here in the L4 trips. Off three straight losses, the Spurs are the more “desperate” team tonight and with the annual “Rodeo Road Trip” looming, that only amplifies the desperation. When not favored at home, the Spurs have a winning ATS record. 10* San Antonio

10* Texas Tech (8:00 ET): This is an important game in the Big 12, especially on the Texas Tech side. The Red Raiders come in on a two-game losing streak, their second of the new year, plus they have revenge for a loss in Morgantown 18 days ago. The last two losses both came w/ TT favored, the more recent was vs. Kentucky (were -3) and the game went to overtime. I think it’s certainly notable that a now-unranked Red Raiders team remains favored over the #12 team in the country (WVU). That should tell you something right there.

West Virginia is definitely a surprise this year as they’ve moved up to #12 in the rankings. They are back to playing defense in Morgantown as this Mountaineers team currently ranks #1 in the country in defensive efficiency, a key metric for March. Bob Huggins’ team is 7-1 ATS its last eight games and coming off a 74-51 beatdown of Missouri in Morgantown. However, all three losses this year came in “true” road games where they are only 3-3 SU. Something to keep in mind is that in the preseason WVU was pegged to finish fifth in the 10-team Big XII. 

Three-point shooting seemed to be the difference in the UK-Texas Tech matchup. While Kentucky shot 46.7% from behind the arch, TT finished at only 15.8%. Similar poor shooting was the story the Red Raiders in the loss to WVU earlier this month as they were held to 28% overall in Morgantown. I expect them to shoot better in this game, despite WVU’s tremendous defense. Texas Tech is no slouch defensively either, ranking 5th nationally in defensive efficiency and holding opponents to 58.5 PPG here in Lubbock. 10* Texas Tech

10* Over Pelicans/Cavaliers (7:35 ET): After losing the first two games with Zion Williamson on the court, New Orleans finally broke through with a win on Sunday, beating the Celtics 123-108 in a game they (meaning the Pelicans) were actually favored to win. After that performance, the Pelicans have to like their chances going up against a Cleveland side that is one of the league’s worst and will be playing the second night of a back to back. One thing for certain is that the potential for a LOT of scoring is present.

The Cavaliers did pick up a rare victory last night, winning 115-100 in Detroit. They closed as 6.5-point underdogs and Kevin Love scored all 20 of his points in the first half. It was Cleveland’s first win in over two weeks and snapped a seven-game losing streak. The game also went Over, the third straight Cavs’ game to do so. The Over is now 11-3 for this team in the month of January, which really isn’t all that surprising considering they have posted the league’s second worst defensive efficiency rating. Only Washington is worse.

New Orleans has also been going Over quite a bit this month with a 10-3 Over mark. This is a team that can score and Williamson only makes them stronger at that end of the floor. But the Pelicans’ problem remains defense as they actually give up more points per game (117.4) than Cleveland. They are 28th overall in PPG allowed (only Atlanta & Washington worse). With that distinction + Cleveland’s own defensive inefficiencies, look for a ton of scoring tonight. New Orleans is 7-1 Over off a DD win. 10* Over Pelicans/Cavaliers

8* St. John’s (6:30 ET): Coming in at #8 in the latest AP Poll (#10 in Coaches), Villanova feels a bit “overrated,” even with a 16-3 SU record. The Wildcats are certainly a Top 20 team, but that’s about it from where I sit. While they’ve won six in a row and are 12-1 SU since December 1st, ‘Nova has been extremely fortunate to go 6-0 in games decided by six points or less during that time. It just feels like Jay Wright’s squad is “due” to drop one and Tuesday’s road game at St. John’s is the place I’ll fade them. 

Most of the winning Villanova has been doing of late has been in Philly. Four of the last five wins have come at home, the exception being Saturday’s 64-60 triumph at Providence. I feel the Wildcats were pretty lucky to win there as they made only ONE field goal over the final 6:45 of game time and were outrebounded badly (-14 in offensive rebounds). Providence also had a bad shooting night, making only 31.7% of their shots including 3 of 23 from three-point range. It’s tough to win, on the road no less, when you attempt 15 fewer shots than your opponent. But somehow Villanova did it. 

St. John’s is a “tougher out” than Providence even though the Red Storm have only two wins in their previous eight games. Both wins were against DePaul, the second one coming on Saturday, 79-66 as 4.5-pt road underdogs. That improves the Red Storm’s record when getting points to 6-3 ATS this season. They are also 8-3 ATS at home where they average 79.5 PPG. On the defensive end, St. John’s has a higher defensive efficiency rating than Villanova. The Red Storm have covered all four meetings w/ Nova the past two seasons (all decided by 7 pts or less). For the favorite, Jermaine Samuels is listed as “day to day” with a foot injury sustained in the Providence game. 8* St. John’s

10* Eastern Washington (9:05 ET): The homecourt advantage should be the decisive factor in this game as Eastern Washington has lost only once here in Cheney and that was to Big Sky leader Montana. The Eagles are 5-1 SU in all other conference games and come into Monday on a three-game win streak after handling Southern Utah here at home Saturday night. They needed overtime to get the job done there and did not cover the 3.5-point spread (won 81-78). But all we need tonight is a SU win and that seems like the logical result here.

Northern Colorado is also 5-2 SU in Big Sky play. These teams are tied for second, one game back of Montana. Northern Colorado beat Montana, but did so at home. What the Bears must contend with here is an Eastern Washington team that is third in the entire country in scoring, trailing only Gonzaga and Dayton. At home, the Eagles are averaging 93.7 PPG, which is the highest scoring average in the country in home games. It’s been more than six years since Northern Colorado won a game here.

Northern Colorado is 2-0 SU in Big Sky road games this season, but those wins came against the two weakest teams in the conference, Weber State and Idaho. The latter was Saturday, by a score of 74-53. This will be the third time this season that the Bears are playing consecutive games on the road. They have yet to sweep as they lost twice back in November and then split a pair last month. So history is not on their side for this one and I just don’t think the Bears have the offense necessary to “keep up” here. 10* Eastern Washington

10* Over Spurs/Bulls (8:05 ET): This is the second game of a back to back for San Antonio, who lost yesterday to Toronto 110-106 as a 3.5-point home dog. It was the Spurs’ second straight home defeat by exactly four points (also lost 110-106 to Phoenix on Friday) and now they’ve got to fly to Chicago to face a Bulls team that’s off a 118-106 victory at Cleveland Saturday night. But I’d be in no rush to bet the Bulls in this situation as they haven’t posted B2B wins in over a month. 

The Spurs have not missed the playoffs since the year before they drafted Tim Duncan. That’s quite the streak and year in, year out, you always expected this to be one of the best defensive teams in the league. That has NOT been the case this year, however. The Spurs have slipped to 23rd in defensive efficiency and are also giving up 115.8 PPG on the road. More than anything, that’s what’s turned this into a fringe playoff team. They are 26-17 Over in all games this season including 13-7 on the road. 

Chicago has had trouble stringing together two straight competent offensive efforts, but they should hopefully exploit the fact that San Antonio is letting opponents connect on almost 38% of three-point attempts on the road. It was a nice game offensively vs. the Cavaliers Saturday as the Bulls shot 51% from the field. The only problem was they also let Cleveland shoot 50% overall, which included 13 of 30 from three-point range. The Bulls are a sub-.500 team (18-30 SU) and the Spurs are 15-5 Over this season vs. such opponents. 10* Over Spurs/Bulls

10* Over Suns/Grizzlies (6:05 ET): These teams have already met three times this season and the Under has cashed every time. But there were 219, 223 and 235 total pts scored in those games. The problem was that - as the scoring increased - so did the O/U line. This is the first time we’ve seen a decrease in the O/U line from the previous meeting and I feel like we should take advantage. Memphis has become quite the high scoring team this year, averaging 115.1 PPG. But they are actually giving up more than they score (116.7 at home), so high-scoring games are nothing new for them. Take the Over in this one. 

Phoenix, who I rate as a better team that Memphis, is hopeful that the trend continues of the road team winning in this series. It’s happened in all three previous meetings this year and the last four overall. On Friday, the Suns traveled to San Antonio and picked up a key 103-99 win over the Spurs, pulling them a bit closer to the #8 spot in the Western Conference, a spot currently occupied by Memphis. Despite the low-scoring nature of the last game, the Suns are averaging 112.8 PPG while allowing 113.7 PPG.

The Over is 9-6 in Phoenix’ games this season when the total is 230+ points. They are 19-13 Over vs. teams averaging at least 106 points per game.  The Grizzlies just scored 125 in Detroit Friday night, one game after being held below 100 (by Boston) for the first time since December 4th. Not only that, the Grizz have actually scored 110+ pts in 14 of their last 15 games. In terms of pace (# of possessions per game), both of these teams are in the top 10 in the league. 10* Over Suns/Grizzlies

analysis soon

10* Drake (4:00 ET): For the first time this year, Missouri State is off B2B conference wins. The Bears beat Evansville 68-58 and Valparaiso 67-60. Ironically, the last time they lost, I was on them -- a 91-78 loss to Bradley. I just don’t see this middle of the pack MVC team winning for a third straight time as Sunday they have to visit Drake, who they are 0-4 SU/ATS against the last two seasons. Furthermore, Drake is a perfect 10-0 SU here at home, winning by an average of 15.3 PPG.

Though a somewhat pedestrian 10-8 ATS this season, Drake has been something of a pointspread juggernaut in recent years. They are 50-29-8 ATS the L88 games including 23-8 here at home. The 10-0 start this year has them at 34-5 SU L39 home games and they’ve covered six of the eight lined affairs here this season. I just find it very hard to believe that that they’re not a safe bet as such as short favorite, especially considering a 25-11 ATS run as chalk.

What’s strange about Missouri State’s recent “surge” is that it has come with G Tyrik Dixon out with a shoulder injury. Dixon is the only player on the roster averaging more than two assists per game! Drake is simply the superior side here and coming off a 23-point road win (at Evansville), it’s hard to imagine them stumbling in this situation. 10* Drake

10* Under Fordham/St. Louis (3:00 ET): Perhaps they were still reeling from their near upset of Dayton the previous Friday (lost in OT), but St. Louis lost to Davidson on Wednesday 71-59. Granted, the Billikens were 2.5 pt underdogs for that one, but they were certainly hoping for a better result after taking one of the top teams in the country to overtime. They’ll look to bounce back at home Sunday and it’s a spot where they should do well as they host A-10 lightweight Fordham. 

Fordham is coming off a win here, 59-54 over George Washington on Wednesday. But that was on the heels of a five-game losing streak. The Rams had actually dropped 9 out of their last 10, the only win coming against Coppin State. What doesn’t bode well for them today (or most others for that matter) is that they only average 59.6 points per game. St. Louis is a strong defensive outfit, giving up only 65.8 PPG. 

That said, I’m not about to lay this many points with a team that couldn’t break 60 points in its last game. Fordham actually plays great defense, giving up only 60.9 PPG. This has all the makings of an ugly slugfest where it could be the first team to 60 wins. Fordham has been held under 63 points in seven straight games, averaging only 56.2 their L5. Both teams here hold opponents under 41% shooting for the year. 10* Under Fordham/St. Louis

8* Virginia (12:00 ET): This Virginia team is nowhere near as talented as what we’ve seen coming out of Charlottesville the last several seasons. That’s evident by the fact the defending National Champs are out of the Top 25, thanks to losses in four of their last five games. But despite this, I’m still not shy about backing them here at Wake Forest. The Cavaliers are 21-6 ATS L27 road games including 8-1 when laying between 3.5 to 6 points. They are well rested (last game was Monday) and all four of those recent losses were of the single digit variety (two by four points or less). 

Even in a down year in the ACC, Wake Forest is struggling to remain relevant. The Demon Deacons come into Sunday also having lost four out of five. The most recent setback was Tuesday at Clemson, 71-68 as a 9.5-point underdog. Something interesting about this WF team is that their last nine games have gone Over. While they can score, they are also very bad at the defensive end, ranking 151st in the nation in efficiency. I have the Demon Deacons rated as the third worst team in the entire ACC right now. 

Wake’s ability to score will be severely tested by a Virginia defense that is still among the nation’s best. The Hoos are again #1 in the country, allowing just 49.7 PPG. While their ability to score can certainly be called into question, I think they’re going to have one of their most productive offensive days in awhile here. Wake Forest is a shockingly poor 15-31 ATS its last 46 ACC games and without their second leading scorer (Chaundee Brown) they are really going to struggle to score here. 8* Virginia

10* Over Lakers/Sixers (8:35 ET): For the second week in a row, the Lakers are featured on ABC in primetime. They can only hope this game goes as well as last week when they downed the Rockets 124-115 in Houston. But that was the start of a five-game road trip. Tonight is the end of the trip and they’re in Philly where the host Sixers are a very strong 20-2 SU. So I can’t advise laying points in this spot. But I do see the Lakers going Over for the eighth time in their last nine games.

Philadelphia is 6-2 Under its last eight games and has even been held below 100 pts four different times during that stretch. But the key there is all four times were on the road. At home, the Sixers are up to 111.4 PPG on the year. This is not the most efficient offensive team in the league, far from it, but they are 5-1 Over when coming off a double digit loss. They lost by 12 in Toronto Wednesday night due in large part to shooting only 38% from the floor. At home, against a tired defense, you can look for them to shoot a heck of a lot better..

The Lakers just put up 128 points Thursday night in a win over Brooklyn. They shot 50% from the floor as they won for a 12th time in the last 14 games. Seeing as LeBron and company average 114.6 PPG on the road, I don’t envision them having much difficulty scoring tonight. The Lakers actually average slightly more PPG on the road than at home. Philadelphia put up 46 three-point attempts in their last game, a clear sign that’s going to be a big part of their arsenal moving forward. 10* Over Lakers/Sixers

10* Florida State (8:00 ET): Florida State has climbed all the way up to #5 in the country as they are 16-2 SU and won nine in a row. This is the first time since 1972 that FSU, a school known for its football, has been in the top five in College Basketball. Do I think this is one of the five best teams in America? No I don’t. But in what is a shockingly “down year” for the ACC, the Seminoles are going to finish with a very good record. Them, Duke & Louisville are the only “sure things” for the NCAA Tournament. 

The Noles do have to play L’ville twice, but they’ve already beaten them on the road. They’ll have to travel to Duke on Feb 10th, but that’s the only game the rest of the way where they’re guaranteed to be underdogs. Now it was not easy last Saturday against Miami as FSU had to rally back from a late nine-point deficit to force OT (where they would go onto win 83-79). That snapped a four-game ATS win streak as the Noles were six-point chalk in Coral Gables. But with a full week off, they should be ready to go tonight at home.

Notre Dame lost to Syracuse Wednesday as a five-point favorite in South Bend. Each of the Fighting Irish’s last five games have been decided by five points or less with them winning two and losing three. Tonight, it’s time for them to be on the wrong end of a more lopsided game. Florida State is 9-0 SU this year in Tallahassee, winning by an average of 20.3 PPG. They are 58-3 SU their L61 home games including 28 ACC wins. Notre Dame, never a good road team, is overmatched here. 10* Florida State

8* Under Florida International/Charlotte (4:00 ET): Charlotte’s results when it comes to the O/U have been very “streaky.” At one point, they’d gone Under in six straight games. But now the 49ers are on a four-game Over run. Key to the latest streak is that three of the four games were on the road. This is a team that plays much better defense here at home where it allows just 57.5 PPG. Neither of the last two games were that high scoring, it was just that the totals for both were exceptionally low.

Meanwhile, there’s no denying how most FIU games go. This is a high-scoring team, one that averages 81.1 PPG (14th in the country) and even 77.4 on the road. They also give up 76.6 PPG away from home. Yet the Panthers’ OU record for the year is actually 10-7 to the Under, due in large part to consistently high totals. The last three games, all wins, have seen FIU score 93, 83 and 83 points. They didn’t even shoot that well in two of the games. 

This one will largely come down to which team can dictate the pace. FIU is 14th in adjusted tempo while Charlotte is 280th. Ultimately, I think this game is going to be played at Charlotte’s pace. Again, this is a pretty high total for them. Conversely, it’s pretty low by FIU standards. But note the Under is 4-1 in Panthers’ games where the O/U line is between 140 and 149.5. They are also 7-2 Under after scoring 80+ pts in their previous game. The Under is 7-3 in Charlotte home games. 8* Under Florida International/Charlotte

10* WI-Milwaukee (3:00 ET): Milwaukee, normally not a contender in the Horizon League, has moved up into third place by virtue of B2B wins, the most recent coming in OT against Youngstown State on Thursday. They’ll now go for what would be their second three-game win streak in the New Year (won 5 of 6 overall) Saturday at Cleveland State. The Panthers have yet to string together consecutive road victories this season, but this is also the first time they will have been favored away from home. 

Given this is WI-Milwaukee’s first time in the road chalk role this year, you can probably guess that the team they are facing here is not very good. That assertion would be correct. Cleveland State comes in at 7-14 SU on the year and has lost four straight. Three of those losses have come by double digits while the last one, here at home, saw them down 12 with just over three minutes to go. The Vikings have really fallen on some “hard times” in recent years. They rank outside the top 300 in the country according to most ratings systems, which is obviously very bad (I have them 314th, 2nd worst among Horizon League schools). 

Cleveland State just doesn’t score very much. They are averaging only 63 PPG for the season and rank in the bottom 20 nationally in offensive efficiency. Milwaukee seems to have really turned it around in 2020 and a win today would have them in great position going into next week when they’ll face the top two teams in the Horizon League. Note the Panthers had a 10-pt halftime lead (on the road) Thursday, so that game going to OT was a little unfortunate. But they still won and should have too much offense for Cleveland State. 10* WI-Milwaukee

8* Auburn (12:00 ET): Auburn was one of only two remaining unbeatens in all of College Basketball when it lost last 84-63 at Alabama last Wednesday. More “bloom” came off the rose when three days later the Tigers were blown out in Gainesville, losing 69-47 to Florida. That’s a heck of a way for an unbeaten run to end, but Bruce Pearl’s team subsequently bounced back with an 80-67 win over South Carolina earlier in the week. It’s important to note Auburn is still undefeated at home and that’s where they’ll be for today’s game vs. Iowa State, part of the Big 12 vs. SEC Challenge. 

Iowa State enters this game at just .500 overall (9-9 SU). They squared away their record with a 89-82 win in Ames over Oklahoma State on Tuesday. But the bad news for the Cyclones is that it’s been a LONG time since they won B2B games. One would have to go back to a 76-66 win over Seton Hall (shocking in retrospect) to find the last time they did so. That was back on December 8th. Since then, ISU is only 3-6 SU overall.

Sometimes it’s as simple as “who’s at home?” Iowa State has not won a “true” road game all season (0-5 SU) while Auburn is 11-0 SU at home. The Tigers are averaging 84.6 PPG at home and they should hit that number today considering the Cyclones allow 79.6 PPG outside of Ames. It’s been a 17.4 PPG margin of victory for Auburn here at home this season and with ISU a money-burning 0 for their last 6 ATS as a road dog of +6.5 to +9, I’ll lay the number here. ISU is just 1-6 ATS as a dog this season. 8* Auburn

10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Denver, to me, is the sixth best team in the Western Conference. I thought they greatly overachieved LY in finishing 2nd. They were able to do so in large part on the strength of a league-best 13-3 SU record in games decided by three points or less. Sure enough, they are 6-3 SU in such games this season and have been as high as 2nd in the standings. But there are five other teams with better YTD point differentials and net efficiency ratings. Unlike LY, I expect the Nuggets to slowly fall down the pecking order.

New Orleans seems to be a team on the rise. We all know that Zion Williamson is now an active participant as the #1 overall draft pick made his pro debut Wednesday against San Antonio. While the Pelicans lost the game 121-117, Williamson definitely showed signs of why he was chosen #1 overall. He finished the game with 22 points including a barrage of 17 straight in the 4Q. While it ultimately wasn’t enough to win or cover, the Pelicans still are 11-5 SU the L16 games while going 13-2-1 ATS. 

I think it speaks volumes that New Orleans is favored here, given the respective WL records. Then again, the Pelicans are 2-0 SU/ATS vs. the Nuggets this year, winning on both Halloween and X-Mas, and those wins came without Zion in the lineup. Denver is off a 16-point loss the other night in Houston and dealing with multiple injuries right now, the most notables ones being Jamal Murray (ankle), Paul Milsap (knee) and Gary Harris Jr (abdominal). Those are three starters missing from lineup. Of the three, only Harris has a chance to play here, but he’s listed as questionable. Also injured are Mason Plumlee and Michael Porter Jr. 10* New Orleans

10* Iona (7:00 ET): It has not been a good year (so far) for Iona. The Gaels has a strangely “light” schedule in November and December, playing only seven games total. They’re set to double that number for January tonight as they host MAAC rival Canisius. While just 2-4 SU this month and 4-9 SU overall, Iona looks like a great play in this spot despite all their previous difficulties. Canisius has pulled three straight “small” upsets (all as dogs of +2 or less) but a fourth seems quite unlikely. 

Iona has been very poor so far at the betting window. They are 2-10 ATS overall including 1-6 as a favorite. That they continue to be favored though tells me something. Something to keep in mind is that the Gaels have played only four home games all year! Two have been one-point losses (to St. Peter’s and Niagara). So their overall (and conference) record could be a lot better. Keep in mind that while Iona is currently last in the MAAC (2-4 SU), only two games separate them from first! 

The Gaels won last Friday here at home, beating Fairfield 64-57. Unfortunately, they could not sustain that success, losing their next time out (Sunday) to Marist by a score of 83-73 (that was on the road). I think this team is ready to make a run. As for Canisius, regression seems likely. Before their string of upsets, they’d lost six in a row. They are just 3-8 SU on the road this season. The Golden Griffins shot better than 60% in their last game, which was at home, a number they won’t come close to duplicating out on the road. 10* Iona

10* Over Bucks/Hornets (3:05 ET): Charlotte is not good at all, but I feel Milwaukee can “carry them” to an Over here in Paris, France. The location is the reason for the early start time, obviously and I don’t expect that either team “packed its defense.” Of course, the Bucks lead the league in scoring at 119.4 PPG and should have little difficulty scoring on a Hornets team that they already hung 137 on in a win earlier this season. The Bucks are strong defensively as well, but could “slip up” a bit in the unfamiliar environment. 

Now I realize there weren’t any defensive issues for Milwaukee in either of its last two games. They held both Brooklyn and Chicago under 100 points in a pair of victories, extending the team’s win streak to seven games and overall run to 12-1 since X-Mas. Compared to recent games, this is a really low total for the Bucks, who rarely see O/U lines below 220 pts these days. The total for that 1st meeting with the Hornets was 226 and went Over, so it’s a little surprising to see the number this low, even in Paris. 

In that first meeting, the Bucks blitzed the Hornets with 56.5% shooting en route to 137 points. It was one of the most efficient offensive performances all year from the best team in the league. Charlotte is trending in a very different direction lately as they have lost seven in a row and failed to hit 100 in the L2 losses. But I’ll call for an improved effort on the offensive end tonight. Milwaukee has gone Over in four straight games vs. sub-.500 opponents while the Over is 17-7 for Charlotte when they’re off a DD loss at home (lost 106-83 to Orlando on Sunday). 10* Over Bucks/Hornets

10* Under Utah Valley State/CS-Bakersfield (10:00 ET): Utah Valley comes in at 8-12 SU on the year and just snapped a three-game losing streak with a 72-70 win over UT Rio Grand Valley last Saturday. But the Wolverines failed to cover (were -4.5) so the ATS losing skid is still alive at four straight games. Tonight they head to Cal State Bakersfield to take on a team that’s returning home after B2B road wins against the bottom of the Big West. I am envisioning this to be an ugly, low-scoring game.

So CS-Bakersfield’s two road wins came against Missouri-KC and Chicago State. The latter is probably the worst team in the entire country, so read little into the fact that the Roadrunners were able to shoot 51% from the floor in that game. It was actually their highest shooting percentage vs. a D-I opponent all season. While you may look at CS-Bakersfield’s scoring average at home this year (78.5 PPG) and be weary over playing the Under, take note that scoring average is greatly inflated by three wins over non-DI opponents. They’ve scored more than 75 pts vs. just one D-I foe this year and that was the second game of the season.

Utah Valley has gone Under in four straight games, due in large part to some dreadful efforts at the offensive end. Prior to the win last Saturday, they had scored 56, 50 and 63 pts in their previous three contests. The Wolverines shoot a poor percentage (30.2) for the year from three-point range, so they’re not much of a threat there. Even in victory, they were just 5 of 21 from behind the arc Saturday. 10* Under Utah Valley State/CS Bakersfield

10* Eastern Illinois (8:30 ET): We’re heading to the Ohio Valley Conference for this one, a league that still has TWO unbeaten teams in conference play. Believe it or not, no other conference can say that. But neither of those two teams - Austin Peay or Murray State - are involved in this play. Instead, it’s two teams in the “middle of the pack,” but are trending in opposite directions. Eastern Illinois (Tony Romo’s alma mater) is off a blowout win and back to .500 overall while UT Martin has lost three straight (all at home) to fall to 5-12 SU on the year.

To be fair, UT Martin’s losing streak has come at the hands of the three top teams in the OVC, including both unbeatens. But they really struggled on the defensive end against those three teams, giving up 85, 84 and 92 points. There’s really no way of sugarcoating just how bad the Skyhawks are at the defensive end. They are giving up 83.5 PPG on the year and only two of their L10 opponents have failed to score at least 82 points on them. They are second to last in the COUNTRY in defensive efficiency, ahead of only Houston Baptist.

The defensive issues have obviously resulted in a poor start to conference play for UT Martin (1-5 SU) and now comes a visit to Eastern Illinois, who is averaging a whopping 91.8 PPG at home. They’ve only played five home games, but the Panthers are undefeated while outscoring their opponents by more than 30 points per game! That’s really impressive. They are in off an 84-59 beatdown of Tenn Tech as 11-pt favorites, which snapped a 6-game ATS losing skid. The Panthers are shooting better than 53% from the field at home! I realize UT Martin has faced Austin Peay and Murray State a total of four times already, but this is a terrible matchup for their terrible defense. 10* Eastern Illinois

10* Washington (7:05 ET): The Wizards lost last night, in overtime, 134-129 at Miami. But even with it being the second night of a back to back here in Cleveland, the Wiz should not be in a position where they are getting points. The 12-32 Cavaliers have the league’s worst net efficiency rating as they are getting outscored by 10.5 points per 100 possessions. They also have not been favored to win a game since January 2nd - when they lost outright here at home to Charlotte. Overall, the Cavs are 0-3 ATS as chalk this season. 

Washington dug itself a big hole last night in Miami, trailing by as many as 21 points in the 3rd quarter. They started the game by missing their first eight three-point attempts and were just 4 of 22 from beyond the arc by halftime. But give the Wizards credit for getting back into the game and forcing OT. They even had a 118-115 lead going into the final minute of regulation. But it was not to be as the Wiz dropped to 1-6 SU in games decided by 5 pts or less this season. They also took 16 fewer free throws than the Heat, who have lost only one home game all season.

I had the Over in last night’s game, an easy winner obviously (even before OT) and there’s definitely a chance this game could turn into a “track meet” as well considering we’re looking at a pair of teams with the worst two defensive efficiency ratings in the league right now. But the big difference is that the Cavaliers (104.8 PPG) can’t score like the Wizards (114.7 PPG) can. Washington is a surprising 4-1 ATS without rest this year and has revenge for a loss to Cleveland that occurred at home back in November. The Cavs have lost their last five games, including a terrible 106-86 setback here at home to the Knicks on Monday. They can’t be trusted to win a game under almost any circumstances. 10* Washington