8* Miami (12:00 ET):  For two teams that certainly wouldn't classify one another as "rivals," the history of Pelicans vs. Heat is certainly quite fascinating, at least to me. Believe it or not, New Orleans is an eye-popping 39-17 ATS vs. Miami, including a 2-0 sweep last year (Heat were banged up & not as good, Pelicans were seemingly a team "on the rise"). At one point (from 2005-2010), the Pelicans covered an amazing 11 straight times against the Heat! What followed was a 5-0 SU/ATS run by Miami. But that came to a halt in the final year of LeBron being on South Beach and then came LY's sweep. However, as is now quite clear, New Orleans is having a really down year while Miami is in the midst of a resurgence. I'm laying the points here.

When it comes to "Christmas Day experience," the Heat are not lacking. They've played almost every year on the Holiday since the NBA first instituted these games, including an upset of Cleveland last year here at home. In fact, that was the franchise's sixth consecutive win on Christmas Day. Meanwhile, one would have to go all the way back to 2008 to find the last time the Pelicans won on XMas day (back in the Chris Paul era). Another key edge for Miami in this one is on the defensive end of the floor. New Orleans currently ranks second to last in the league (only Lakers are worse) in terms of defensive efficiency, giving up 108.3 points per 100 possessions. Miami is top five, giving up nearly 10 points per 100 possessions fewer. They give up nearly 13 points fewer per game than the Pelicans.

The Heat are off a home loss Tuesday night, 93-92 to Detroit (as 2.5-pt favorites). That was a game where they led by 16 points after the first quarter. Three pointers decided that game as the Pistons were 15 of 29 from three-point range while the Heat were only 4 of 18. I anticipate a bounce back here. New Orleans is off B2B wins, but those were over injury-riddled Denver and Portland teams. The season-best defensive effort against Portland needs to be taken with a "grain of salt" as the Blazers were w/o Damian Lillard. The Pelicans are 3-13 SU on the road (-8.1 PPG) and 2-7 SU (3-6 ATS) vs. the Eastern Conference. I've previously discussed how the East is now the deeper of the two conferences, so it shouldn't be all that surprising to find the Heat 8-1 SU vs. the West. 8* Miami

8* Santa Clara (11:00 ET):  Conference play has already begun out on the West Coast and for St. Mary's, Monday's result at the betting window was the same as it was for every non-conference game. (Note: By betting against the Gaels early, I was able to get a favorable line in their game at Cal. More on that later). That result was a cover as they downed San Francisco by a score of 74-52 as 17.5-point chalk, improving their ATS record to a perfect 8-0 this season.  That's the best such mark in the country right now, but one that's certainly due to regress. Consider that currently there's no other team that has played more than three lined games w/o failing to cover. With this being the only the second "true" road game for the Gaels, the first resulting in their only loss this season (at Cal), I view this as a potential slip up. Take the points.

The opponent here is Santa Clara, who beat St. Mary's on this floor last season, 71-70 as seven-point dogs. This year, they're getting even more points to "work with," thanks to what's been a very bizarre up and down season for them.  The Broncos have not had much luck in close games so far, going 1-6 SU when the final margin is six points or less.  That includes B2B losses by a combined four points. Both were on the road and Monday's 73-72 loss at Pacific (WCC opener) was tough as it came in overtime. While the Broncos did cover (were 4.5-pt dogs), they were obviously hoping for "more," especially considering they held a six-point halftime lead.  This is a team that's due to start shooting the ball better as a 40.5 percent YTD field goal percentage is really low. Yes, I'm aware that the Broncos opened the season with seven straight losses, but again many were close games, including a two-point loss to Arizona on a neutral floor.

It's easy to identify St. Mary's worst game of the season as it's the only one they lost.  They scored just 59 points at Cal and I went against them in that spot and because I got down early, I actually got a win. Here, I anticipate the ATS result will be less in doubt as the Gaels are now being asked to lay double digits. That's always a tough ask on the conference road, especially for a team that's just 13-11 SU in "true" road games the L3 seasons. While Santa Clara's offense needs some work, their defense has been outstanding, holding opponents to just 39.1 percent shooting here at home. In what shapes up as a potentially low-scoring affair, taking the points is the way to go. 8* Santa Clara

8* Over Thunder/Lakers (10:35 ET):  For the life of me, I can't understand how Oklahoma City has been consistently staying Under the total on a nightly basis (13-1 Under L14 games!). This is a team that obviously has two of the top scorers in the league (Durant and Westbrook) and averages an impressive 107.4 PPG. Only Golden State is more efficient on that end of the floor. At the same time, the Thunder haven't been too "defensive-minded" when taking their act out on the road this season, giving up an average of 103.8 PPG.  The "culprit" for all these Unders has been high totals, which I guess shouldn't be all that surprising, but what is surprising is tonight's O/U line being so low for a matchup with one of the worst defensive teams in the league, the Lakers. This is a good value play.  Take the Over.

The Lakers allow 107.2 points per game. That's the second highest number in the league, trailing only New Orleans. It's also how many they gave up last night (107) in last night's game against Denver, the result of which was a rare win! Kobe Bryant scored a season-high 31 points Tuesday, a number that's highly unlikely to be duplicated here. Nor will the team likely match its overall 111 point output.  But going against OKC, they won't have to. Nuggets' starters accounted for only 49 points last night, a number that the Thunder will easily top. When playing w/o rest this season, things have not gone well for Los Angeles as they are 1-5 SU while allowing 110 PPG.  They give up an average of 112.9 PPG to conference foes.

These teams actually just played on Saturday. The result was an easy 118-78 Thunder win and cover. So, obviously it has been established that OKC is likely to torch the Lakers for a lot of points. They shot almost 55 percent from the field in the previous win. The key then will be the Lakers improving offensively and that shouldn't be hard.  Yes, Bryant isn't likely to score 31 pts for a second straight night, but I can guarantee you that he'll score more tonight than he did Saturday. That's because he didn't play the first time against the Thunder. The rest of the Lakers would go on to shoot a woeful 34.8 percent, which is hard to do. Bottom line is that I expect a lot of points to be scored here.  8* Over Thunder/Lakers

10* Indiana (7:05 ET): I don't like the Kings chances here at all as tonight marks the end of a four-game trip and is their third game in four nights. Monday night saw them get blown out in Washington, a 113-99 loss to a Wizards team that quite frankly hasn't been very good this season.  Therefore, I do not anticipate being them prepared for this step up in class where they'll take on a Pacers team angry over B2B losses, both of which came on the road to superior opponents compared to what they'll face here. Indiana has been strong at home this season, going 10-3 SU while outscoring teams by 7.3 points per game. Meanwhile, Sacramento has been horrible on the road for years and 2015 has been no different.  This line should be double digits. Lay the points.

The Kings primary issue on the road is easy to identify.  They simply don't play any defense. Ranking 25th in terms of defensive efficiency is really bad, but giving up 110.1 points per game on the road is downright unforgivable. Indiana plays at a pace similar to Washington (though not quite as fast), so I expect Sacramento to have the same issues here as they did in their last game when they allowed 50.6% shooting. Defense, or in the case of the Kings lack of it, is what will determine the final margin of this game.  The Pacers are allowing only 95.5 PPG at home this season, so again the numbers expect this one to be decided by double digits (my own personal power ratings agree).

In road losses to San Antonio and Memphis, the Pacers were held to an average of just 88 PPG. But that was on the heels of three straight home wins where they topped 100 pts every time. In 12 of their last 16 games, the Pacers have been in triple digits and three of the four times they were not came on the road.  They certainly should have little difficulty scoring here against the defensively inept Kings. I was surprised to learn that Indiana is just 2-9 ATS vs. the Western Conference this year, given how we're seeing a shift in the NBA power structure (10 of top 16 teams in the league are from the East).  But it's also explainable by the fact the Pacers have already played Golden State, San Antonio and the Clippers. Paul George was an awful 1 for 14 from the floor Monday in San Antonio, which won't happen again here. 10* Indiana

10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET):  Rarely do my personal power ratings suggest the 76ers are a good value play, but they do here as a Memphis team that has simply underperformed all year comes to town. The Grizzlies have a disappointing record to begin with, just 15-14 straight up, but their YTD point differential suggests that they should actually feel fortunate to even be above .500.  They've been outscored by 4.3 points per game this season, ending up on the wrong side of routs far too often. While it's highly unlikely that they'll get routed here, or even lose for that matter, the fact remains that no team in the league has a larger discrepancy when it comes to actual vs. expected wins. They have no business laying double digits on the road, even to the Sixers.  Take the points.

Memphis is off a minor upset as they beat Indiana 96-84 as a one-point dog Friday. That win came on the heels of them dropping four of their previous five contests.  The news Grizzlies fans don't want to hear is that their favorite team is 0-3 ATS this season coming off a SU win as a dog. Also, that win against Indiana came at home.  On the road, the Grizz are averaging just 94.6 PPG, proof that they don't belong in this price range, and in fact they have only one double digit road win to their credit. That came at Sacramento in the fifth game of the season. Since then, they are just 4-8 SU away from home.  Making this line all the more curious is the fact they only beat Philly by eight last month at home, failing to cover as 13.5-point chalk. 

At 1-28 straight up, the Sixers are obviously a disaster.  Perhaps even more embarrassing is the fact they haven't covered a single spread since picking up their only SU win of the season, 103-91 over the Lakers back on December 1st (0-9-1 ATS since)!  But they did lead the Grizzlies late in the game back on November 29th, which was the game right before they beat the Lakers.  While Memphis has dominated them head to head, most of the matchups have been close, including four of the last five here in the City of Brotherly Love being decided by five points or less.  Look for the Sixers to play the Grizzlies tough for a second time this season. 10* Philadelphia

8* Texas Tech (3:00 ET):  We're down to six unbeatens left in College Hoops (for those "keeping score at home") and certainly the "least known" of the bunch resides in Arkansas Little-Rock where the 10-0 Trojans are also a perfect 6-0 against the spread. They've made me look foolish a couple of times recently, first by thrashing DePaul on the road (66-44 as 4-pt dogs) and then blowing out overmatched Northern Arizona (84-57 as 16.5-pt dogs) Sunday. If you're a regular reader/client of mine, however, then you know I've had a great deal of success targeting the dwindling list of unbeatens this month as sooner rather than later, everybody's going to drop a game. For Arkansas Little-Rock, I do believe today is finally "the day" as they visit Lubbock to play their toughest game to date, against 8-1 Texas Tech. Lay the points.

This is a "true" road game, something that certainly hasn't bothered ALR to date as they've won five such contests, including at San Diego State & Tulsa as double-digit dogs. Clearly, they were not priced properly in either of those instances, but now things have swung too far "in the other direction."  Curiously, the Trojans have found all this success despite averaging just 62.3 points per game away from home.  They are shooting just 40.8 percent from the floor in those games (30% from three-point range).  That just won't cut it here against a Red Raiders offense that's averaging 78.5 PPG here at home, outscoring opponents by 16.3 points per game. ALR did shoot 50% (tied for season-best) against Northern Arizona Sunday w/ four reserves scoring in double figures, something I do not anticipating happening here.

Texas Tech is 6-0 SU at home this season and the Red Raiders only loss this year came on a neutral floor to Utah (who just beat Duke). They are off a 40-point win over another Arkansas school, albeit a much weaker one (non-board Ark Pine-Bluff).  Now Arkansas Little Rock is the top defensive team in the country, in terms of points allowed, so this one likely hinges on how well Texas Tech shoots the ball here. But the good news is that they play a similar defensive style to ALR and should know what they're up against. The Red Raiders aren't too shabby at the defensive end either; they're holding opponents under 38 percent for the year.  8* Texas Tech

8* San Francisco (11:00 ET):  Conference play in the WCC gets underway tonight w/ a full slate of games and here's one where I think the line is far too high.  Of course, this spread has everything to do with favored St. Mary's being unbeaten (for most) at the betting window (I did cash going against them at Cal - bet early) and the fact they are coming off a 92-36 beatdown of Southern Utah in their last game. They commence conference play with a home game against San Francisco, whom they defeated both times last year, further inflating this number. The underdog Dons come into tonight off B2B wins, however, and scored 96 points their last time out. So I'll gladly grab the number here.

With St. Mary's success, the pointspreads will only continue to rise and I think we have a "tipping point" of sorts here as this will be the second highest spread of the season, trailing only the last game against that horrible Southern Utah team. That game saw the Gaels shoot 62.5 percent from the field, including 14 of 26 from three-point range. Curiously, they shot just 57.1 percent from the free throw line.  For the year, they are just 67% from the FT line and those kind of woes will eventually cost you some covers, if not games, trust me.  Even more eye-opening, however, is the fact that Gaels' opponents are shooting just 60% from the charity stripe this season! That's an insane amount of good fortune, especially since those same opponents are getting to the FT line more than the Gaels are.

USF was also "lights out" from the field in their last game (55.0 percent) as they beat Coppin State 96-93 in overtime.  I realize that Coppin State is not a very impressive opponent, but the Dons will take a win any way they can get it. It should be pointed out that of their four losses, three have been by seven points or less. An ugly showing at Montana stands out as an outlier as they shot just 30.9 percent from the field. Remember that St. Mary's did lose all five starters from last season, so this hot start of theirs has come as a bit of a surprise. Look for this game to be closer than expected.  8* San Francisco

10* Over Hornets/Rockets (8:05 ET):  Houston has gone Under in each of its last three games.  This seems odd given how inept they are defensively (looking at you James Harden!), but tonight we can take advantage of a relatively low total (by Rockets standards). Now, recent matchups with Charlotte have mostly resulted in the Under cashing, including both last season, but it is highly unlikely that the Hornets, struggling as they may be, will shoot as poorly here as they did in the two 2014-15 meetings.  Also, for Charlotte, their last three games have all gone Over the total.  The two on the road have seen them yield an average of 111 PPG.  Go with the Over here.

In the two games vs. Houston last season, the Hornets went a combined 12 of 53 from three-point range.  Unless it's you and I out there, it stands to reason that there will be an improvement from behind the arc this evening. Offensively, Charlotte has been much better than you think this season as they rank in the top five in offensive efficiency and come in averaging an impressive 102.7 PPG.  On the other hand, this team's defensive numbers are really starting to slip, especially on the road where they're allowing 102.3 points per game. A big problem for the Hornets right now is the suspension of Al Jefferson (drug policy violation). Washington shot better than 50 percent against them in Saturday's 109-101 final. 

Houston is a horrible defensive team, but somehow has allowed just 92 PPG in B2B victories. Of course, one of those was against the Lakers, who are dismal and then the Clippers had an "off-night" Saturday (just 39.5% from the field).  This is the first time all season that the Rockets have held B2B opponents below 100 points! In fact, only five times this season have they allowed fewer than 100 pts and only once (Lakers) have they allowed fewer than 96.  On the offensive end, James Harden didn't particularly shoot well in the two wins over the LA teams, so it's reasonable to assume he'll improve here. It's also a positive sign that Dwight Howard is beginning to come around.  The bottom line is that this is a team that averages 104.3 PPG and allows 106.0.  10* Over Hornets/Rockets

10* St. Louis (8:00 ET): What has happened to the once proud Billikens? Losers of five of their last six, the team's lone win during that span came at the expense of non-board team Alabama A&M.  They're off B2B losses since, both here at home. Even worse is that they were favored to win both, against Tennessee-Martin and Indiana State, and wound up coming up 27 points short of the oddsmakers projections in those two games. The good news here, of course, is that those results have created a ton of value as SLU now comes in as a slight home dog to a Southern Illinois team they beat here last season (but didn't cover) as 6.5-pt chalk. I foresee the Billikens snapping their losing streak tonight.

These two programs are no strangers to one another as they play virtually every year. Predictably, most of the games have gone the home team's way, especially here in Saint Louis where the Billikens have won seven of eight matchups.  Neither team shot well last year, but the difference was St. Louis made twice as many three-pointers.  Three-point shooting has been basically even heading into this year's matchup.  However, overall, Southern Illinois has been red hot from the floor, averaging 83.0 points per game on the road on 51.8% shooting. They were at 53.8% in Friday's upset (2.5 pt dogs) at Murray State and I just don't think those kind of numbers are sustainable, especially away from home.

Though they enter tonight's game w/ a 10-2 SU record, it should be mentioned that the Salukis do have one ugly loss on their resume, that coming two games ago against SIU-Edwardsville (were 14.5-pt favorites at home in that one).  It also should be pointed out that St. Louis beat SIU Edwardsville earlier in the season, here at home, by 10 points.  While "Team A beat Team B" and "Team B beat Team C" does not necessarily mean "Team A will beat Team C," the value being afforded the home team here is rather curious. Note that St. Louis was victimized by a 22-2 Indiana State run in the second half on Saturday (led at the half).  This is a team w/ four players averaging double figures in scoring. Honestly, I'm pretty shocked at Southern Illinois' start given they were projected to finish ninth in the 10-team Missouri Valley Conference and coming off a 12-21 SU season. 10* St. Louis

8* UC Santa Barbara (3:00 ET): UCSB is known for putting together a daunting early season schedule, year in & year out, in the hopes that it will serve them well once Big West play commences. This year, however, the Gauchos seem to really have their work cut out for them as they've opened 2-6 SU following B2B road losses to South Dakota State and Vermont. They'll now spend some time in Vegas before Christmas as part of the South Point Holiday Hoops Classic. Up first is a game w/ Akron, winners of four straight games, but all against less than stellar competition. I look for the Gauchos to start their annual turnaround here as they are a solid value in the underdog role. Take the points.

The big story for this Monday afternoon matchup is that Akron's leading scorer, Pat Forsythe, is questionable due to an ankle injury suffered in the team's 81-60 win over Bethune-Cookman last Saturday. The fact that the Zips have had so much time off and Forsythe is still being listed as questionable is not a good sign. Forsythe is both the team's leading scorer and rebounder, so it would be a huge loss if he could not go here.  Note that this is play stands regardless of Forsythe's status as his game would obviously be impacted by the ankle injury even if he is able to play. As a team, Akron has not shot the ball very well of late. They've actually been below 42% from the field in each of their last six contests.

UCSB was victimized by the hot shooting of South Dakota State, who is great at home, last week. Three days later in Vermont, it may simply have been a case of too many "true" road games in a short span of time. Out of their eight games played so far, the Gauchos have been the visitors six times and I find it interesting that not one time all year have they been favored. Free throw shooting played a major role in the loss to Vermont as the host Catamounts went to the line 36 times, while the Gauchos were just 11 for 19.  I believe that this team is overdue for a turnaround and it starts today in Vegas as hopefully Forsythe can't go.  8* UC Santa Barbara

8* New Orleans (8:05 ET):  I have to start out by saying that I'm going against my own power ratings here as the Pelicans actually rate WORSE than the Nuggets currently and by being the road team, that means they shouldn't be favored. But "looking at the broader picture," I'd say only one of these two is due to improve and that would indeed be the Pelicans. Denver is in the midst of a massive rebuild and likely will not be relevant for some time. New Orleans, with Anthony Davis drawing MVP consideration that is no longer there, was expected to be a playoff team this year. The fact that they're not, even in the weakened West, has been a real disappointment. But, nevertheless, I see them responding well to what's a huge revenge spot.

This will be the Pelicans' fifth straight road game and so far they are just 1-3 SU/ATS on the trip, which ends here. They are coming off a very embarrassing result, a 104-88 loss in Phoenix (as only three-point dogs), which should have them "fired up" and ready to go here. Note that they had actually swept the Suns in a home and home last month, so the proverbial "revenge shoe" was on the other foot in that one. Here, the Pelicans have revenge for an ugly 115-98 early season loss at home. They shot just 36.6 percent from the field Friday night, one of their worst efforts of the entire season, so I'd expect some improvement there. Additionally, they committed 21 turnovers and were 4 of 22 from three-point range in Phoenix. HC Alvin Gentry ripped them "a new one" after the loss, so again, this is the usual bounce back spot for a struggling NBA squad. 

Denver, like New Orleans, isn't very good on the defensive end. They allow 102.4 PPG. However, it was the offense that was the problem in Friday's 97-88 loss at Utah.  For what it's worth, the Jazz are the one team the Pelicans beat on this current road trip.  The Nuggets had actually won five of six before that, so I'd say they are due to regress.  For evidence of this, look no further than the fact they had previously dropped eight in a row. When these teams last played, Davis had to exit after just six minutes due to injury. It will be a different Pelicans team tonight.  8* New Orleans

10* Northern Arizona (2:00 ET): We're down to only six unbeaten teams left in the entire country after Purdue and Iowa State went down Saturday. I was on the other side of both (Butler, Northern Iowa) yday and while we may not be getting the same exact result (i.e. SU dog win) here, I do think the points are plentiful as Northern Arizona hits the road to take on the least known/likely of the remaining unbeatens, that being Arkansas Little-Rock.  The Trojans, now 9-0 SU and 5-0 ATS on the season, sure did make me look foolish last Saturday by going to DePaul and destroying the Blue Demons by a score of 66-44 as four-point dogs. Wednesday saw them make it five "true" road wins already this year w/ another rout, this time beating Central Arkansas (non-board team that they were playing for a second time) 77-54. But, they've got to fall sooner or later, or in this case simply fail to cover.  Take the points. 

The role Arkansas Little-Rock finds itself in this afternoon is unfamiliar.  That would be the role of prohibitive favorite, something they have not been in any lined game all season. Three of their five lined games so far have seen them come as the dog, two of those (San Diego St, Tulsa) they were actually catching double digits! I already referenced another outright win, last Saturday vs. DePaul, and there have been two games in which they were slight favorites. They were laying 3.5 to East Carolina in a 54-46 win and five to Idaho in a 64-54 win. Five of their nine wins this year have come by 10 pts or less. I don't think teams will continue to shoot as poorly as they have thus far against the Trojans (36.5%!), who may get caught looking ahead here to a road game w/ Texas Tech on Tuesday.

As for Northern Arizona, all I can say is that there's no way they can be any worse than they were their last time out when they were simply bludgeoned by Arizona, 92-37 as 27.5-pt dogs. That result obviously has a massive bearing on the line here. Granted, it was also the Lumberjacks' fourth straight loss (2-8 SU overall) and they have failed to cover all four lined games this season. But they've also played two Pac 12 teams as well as Gonzaga on the road. Having shot a dismal 28 of 112 from the field the L2 games, there's only one way for NAU to go here and it's up. 10* Northern Arizona

8* LA Clippers (8:05 ET):  What a brutal loss (and non-cover) last night for the Clippers.  Of course, it was a GREAT win for me as I had San Antonio -7.5 and the Spurs, who trailed entering the fourth quarter, made two free throws w/ only two seconds left on the clock to "grab the money."  While I may not have liked the Clips last night, that had just as much, if not more, to do with their opponent. It's a significant drop in class for Saturday as they head to Houston to play a Rockets team that's been a massive disappointment on the court and at the betting window all season. As you know (I've been harping on this), teams playing in the second of B2B games are typically undervalued and that's the case here as my own personal power ratings indicate that LA should not be an underdog in this matchup.

Not only will there be motivation from last night's loss, but the revenge angle is present here as well.  Los Angeles likely still hasn't forgotten being ousted in the second round of LY's playoffs, a series that they likely should have won (led big at home in Game 6).  They failed at their first attempt at gaining a measure of revenge, losing outright (109-105) as 5.5-point favorites at the Staples Center back on November 7th.  But that result simply is not indicative of the kind of season Houston is having. They are below .500 in the standings and are just 10-17 ATS, one year removed from being the most profitable team in the league to bet on. Things have turned around somewhat for the Rockets in December, but I put little stock in Thursday's 20-point victory as it came at the expense of the lowly Lakers. They are still just 6-12 ATS as favorites.

Dwight Howard is being shopped around as trade bait and James Harden is dating Khloe Kardashian. I'm not sure either is to blame for the Rockets' poor start to the season, but neither situation is a positive.  Meanwhile, even though they lost last night, I think there were some positive takeaways for the Clippers. Namely, they scored 88 points in three quarters against a team that came in allowing just 88.2 points per game. The intentional fouling of DeAndre Jordan clearly disrupted the flow of the game and negatively affected the Clips. Here, that can work both ways (Howard).  Houston is also w/o backup point guard Ty Lawson (suspended) here.  Both teams here have experienced disappointing starts, but the Clippers have been more consistent and generally played better. 8* LA Clippers

8* Northern Iowa (7:00 ET):  The underdog Panthers have already pulled one major upset this season, knocking off then #1 North Carolina in Cedar Falls, so they certainly won't be intimidated here in a neutral setting against another Top 5 foe, that being in-state rival Iowa State, who is unbeaten (one of eight left) and ranked #5 in the country. If you're a client/regular reader, then you already know that I've been targeting the dwindling list of unbeaten teams left as sooner rather than later, everyone is going to lose.  You may recall that I played against the unbeaten Cyclones as recently as nine days ago when they likely "should have" lost to another in-state foe, Iowa. But, in addition to not covering the spread there, they also suffered another loss, that being an injury to star guard Naz Mitrou-Long. I'll take the points here.

In that 83-82 win over Iowa, ISU actually trailed by as many as 20 in the second half.  So chalk that result up to some good fortune. Turnovers have been a problem for the Cyclones this season, particularly in the first halves of games. They gave it away 10 times in the first 16 minutes alone vs. the Hawkeyes, whose size also gave them problems.  This will also be ISU's first test w/o Long. His replacement scored 17 pts in an easy win over Arkansas Pine-Bluff (non-board team) last Saturday, but that clearly was an overmatched opponent. Of the six unbeatens left in the Top 25, I'd say that Iowa State is the most vulnerable right now. I'll reiterate the fact that they have a first year head coach as well, who is replacing the high-profile Fred Hoiberg.

I'm going to chalk up Northern Iowa's 76-57 loss at New Mexico last Saturday as a case of "looking ahead." It was also the Panthers' third straight road game in an eight-day span and they shot a season-worst 6 of 25 from three-point range.  Having had a full week off and returning to the Hawkeye state should be a big boost.  They are 10-3 ATS L13 neutral site games and have revenge for a 91-82 loss to Iowa State in the last meeting (did cover as 10-pt dogs). That was just UNI's second loss in the last seven meetings vs. ISU.  This spread is just too high.  8* Northern Iowa

10* Butler (5:00 ET):  Right now, it seems as if Purdue (not Maryland!) has emerged as the top contender to Michigan State in the Big 10.  The Boilermakers are 11-0 straight up (one of eight remaining unbeatens left) with every win coming by at least 12 points. But the schedule has been rather soft to this point and if you're a client/regular reader, then you already know that I've been targeting the dwindling list of unbeaten teams left as sooner rather than later, everyone is going to lose. This evening, Matt Painter's team faces its toughest test to date in the form of Butler, who is 8-1 SU w/ a "true" road win at Cincinnati. The Bulldogs have routinely topped 90 points (four times) this season including each of the L2 games. They can absolutely win this neutral site matchup of in-state rivals.  Take the points.

This will be a case of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object.  Butler comes in averaging 91.7 points per game (4th in terms of off. efficiency) while Purdue is allowing just 57.5 (1st in terms of def. efficiency).  In each case, it will be the toughest opponent faced all season. Teams are shooting just 33.3 percent for the year against the Boilermakers, which seems unsustainable.  Likewise, Butler's offensive numbers are due to drop but a team that's made 20 three-pointers its last two games, getting this many points, is dangerous in the underdog role.  They are also 10-5 ATS in a neutral court setting the L3 seasons (64-32 ATS L96!).

Purdue has simply not had much success in this all-Indiana event. They've lost four straight times to Butler, including the last meeting (in 2013), 76-70 as 2.5-pt pups. I readily concede that this is the best Boilermakers squad that the Bulldogs will have faced during that time. But, once again I'll reiterate that Butler is the best team Purdue has faced so far. Not only do we have a sharp-shooting underdog on our hands, but underrated may be the facts that the Bulldogs are 13th nationally in fewest turnovers per game (just 10.1) and 27th in free throw percentage (74.9%).  The fewest points Butler has scored in a game all season is 74 and taking this number, I think there's a very good chance they stay within the money. 10* Butler

8* San Antonio (8:05 ET):  Don't tell the Spurs that Golden State is "lapping" the rest of the league as they have a nearly identical per game point differential (+13.4 vs. +13.5) and come into tonight at 22-5 SU, which includes a perfect 14-0 at home.  That makes them a bargain as a single-digit favorite, at least in my opinion, against just about any opponent. That includes the Clippers, who have turned it around somewhat, but are still only +2.1 in per game point differential and a 6-1 SU stretch has come mostly at the expense of inferior opponents (favored in every game). As the underdog, it's been a different story for Doc Rivers' bunch as they are 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in that role and really there's no question who the better defensive team is here. Lay the points.

San Antonio is destroying teams at home this year, outscoring opponents by 16.8 points per game.  The main reason for that is a defense that is allowing just 86.1 PPG.  This is the #1 team in the league - by a mile - in terms of defensive efficiency. Per 100 possessions, they are allowing 4.2 points less than the #2 team (Chicago), which is a wider gap than the difference between #2 and #12!  On the other hand, the Clippers are allowing 103.2 PPG on the road. They've been fortunate in that their last few opponents have all shot relatively poorly from the floor. Unfortunately for the Clips, San Antonio is shooting better than 48% overall this season, including 37% from three-point range.  They are also 14-5 ATS this season vs. opponents allowing 99+ PPG. 

This is also a major revenge spot for the Spurs.  It's the first time they've faced off w/ LA since being ousted in seven games in LY's first round playoff series. That series saw the Clips win twice in San Antonio, something that I'm sure Greg Popovich will remind his team of, plus there's the fact that the Clippers also won by 20 here in the Alamo during LY's regular season.  Following a double-digit win (beat the Bucks 103-90 on Tuesday), the Clippers are 0-5 against the spread this season. Meanwhile, the Spurs have posted four consecutive victories, all by 19 points or more and 14 of their 22 wins this season have come by a double digit margin. 8* San Antonio

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  Yes, I'm doing "this" again, this being taking the T'wolves at home despite a woeful 3-10 SU/1-12 ATS record here.  Not surprisingly, that is easily a league-worst and it includes a recent 0-4 homestand + a double-digit loss to Denver earlier in the week. A quick visit to New York failed to yield any better results as the team fell to the Knicks, 107-102 on Wednesday, but in this spot they are simply being way undervalued. I know I've said this before, but tonight marks the strongest case yet as Sacramento comes in as a road favorite (!), a role you just don't find them in very often. In fact, the Kings haven't been road chalk even one time this season and are 1-6 ATS laying three or less away from home the L3 seasons.  They lost, at home, to Minnesota (as three-point favorites) last month, so take the points.

That last meeting took place on November 27th and saw the T'wolves not just prevail, but win by double digits, 101-91.  Kings fans will point to the fact they were w/o their best player, DeMarcus Cousins, and that Rudy Gay played his worst game of the season (1 for 13 FG attempts). They are also likely to point to the team's current three-game win streak that's seen them also cover as favorites every time.  But all of those games came at home. This has been a terrible road team for years and so far this season has been no different as they've gone 2-8 SU while allowing a horrifying 112.5 points per game! My own personal power ratings indicate that Sacramento should not even be favored in this game and instead should be around a five-point dog. 

Minnesota is hardly "sound" defensively itself as they've given up 107 or more points in seven straight contests, none of which have seen them cover the spread. But this shapes up as a good matchup and not just because they've already beaten the Kings once this season. They've averaged 106.1 PPG those last seven contests as well, so I'd look for them to win a high-scoring affair here. Also of note is the fact that Sacramento turned the ball over a mind-numbing 29 times their last game (granted, no Rondo). The bottom line is that the Timberwolves HAVE to turn things around at home. 10* Minnesota

10* Clemson (7:00 ET):  South Carolina is one of the eight remaining unbeatens left in College Hoops. They've covered all but one lined game this season, an 81-63 win over South Florida where they were 19-point home favorites. I successfully went against the Gamecocks there and will do so again here, this time the result will likely end up being their first SU loss of the season.  Yes, they looked as dominant as ever earlier this week in a 79-54 beatdown of Drexel. But this will be South Carolina's first "true" road game of the season and it comes against a hungry in-state rival seeking revenge for an embarrassing 23-point loss in Columbia last year. Clemson comes into Friday having won three of four, the lone loss coming by a single point.

If a team shoots worse than 30 percent, chances are they won't win the game.  Clemson found that out the hard way, losing 68-45 last season at South Carolina as seven-point dogs.  In the loss, the Tigers shot a woeful 29.8% overall (17 of 57!) including 4 of 18 from three-point range. That was one of their worst losses of last season w/ only losses to Virginia and North Carolina meeting or exceeding that final margin. Eight of their 15 losses in 2014-15 were by six points or less, so you could make a case the team should have finished w/ a better record than 16-15 SU. This year, they've opened 7-3 SU following a 69-41 rout of Presbyterian on Tuesday. That was their fourth straight game holding an opponent to 56 pts or less (and 7th time in 10 games) as opponents are shooting just 37.9% against them for the year.

Even better is that Clemson comes in averaging a solid 71.3 points per game itself.  They'll need to bring their offense here as South Carolina averages 83.2 PPG. But that's come at the expense of a fairly light schedule. You'll note that the Gamecocks aren't even ranked in the AP Poll (#25 in Coach's), so they're not really impressing the pollsters either.  Also note that while this game isn't actually being played on Clemson's campus (it's taking place in nearby Greenville), it is still a road game for USC, who the L2 seasons have gone 4-18 straight up as the visitor. Rebounding likely decides this game as the Gamecocks are +10.3 per game in that department, but Clemson has won the battle of the boards in all seven of its victories.  10* Clemson

10* Over Thunder/Cavaliers (8:05 ET):  This shapes up as a battle to see just who the third best team in the NBA is right now.  (Obviously, Golden State and San Antonio are 1-2). Kyrie Irving will NOT make his season debut for Cleveland here, but the Cavs are still favored as they are at home and coming off back to back impressive wins over the Magic and Celtics (allowed just 76.5 PPG!).  However, this is a big step up from those two opponents and quite obviously OKC is a much better offensive team than what Cleveland has been facing recently. In fact, both of these teams rate in the top four in the league in terms of offensive efficiency (OKC #2, CLE #4), so I anticipate there will be plenty of scoring tonight in this high-profile TNT matchup. Take the Over.

You can't get any more dominant than Cleveland was defensively in its last two games as they held Orlando to just 76 and Boston 77 points.  Of course, they had a lot of help from the opponents themselves, who combined to shoot a woeful 56 of 159 from the floor (35.2 percent!). You'll note that in their two games prior to that, Cleveland's two opponents (Miami & Portland) both shot 50% or better, so I'm not too convinced that the L2 games are part of some long-term trend. In fact, the Over had been 12-6 in the games in which they were favored this season. Oklahoma City also got a break from an opponent shooting the ball poorly last night as Portland connected on only 34.8% percent of its shot attempts in a 106-90 win and cover for the Thunder. That makes it an incredible 10-1 Under streak for OKC, a trend certainly due to "reverse itself" given the team's usual offensive output.

With bad shooting opponents out of the way, I feel these teams are likely to engage in a shootout here. Both are on the fringes of the top 10 in terms of defensive efficiency, but again recent opponents have not been strong on the offensive end of the floor.  Both of these teams are. Oklahoma City comes in averaging a whopping 110.6 points per game on the road! At the same time, they give up 104.3 PPG.  Cleveland is averaging 104.2 PPG at home. Provided each team gets close to 100 possessions, this one should fly Over the number.  10* Over Thunder/Cavs

10* Over Sixers/Hawks (8:05 ET):  It's a "tipping point" situation of sorts here as Atlanta has gone Under in seven consecutive games. They also went Under in all four matchups vs. Philadelphia last season.  However, coming off games against San Antonio & Miami (#1 and #2 teams in defensive efficiency), the Hawks offense is bound to be better for this matchup, which I have going Over the total.  They averaged just 83 PPG in losses to the Spurs and Heat, but this is a team that is top five in the league in "true" shooting percentage and averages 99.7 PPG.  We'll need Philadelphia to pull its own weight for the Over to cash here as well, but fortunately the Hawks have allowed 100+ in three consecutive contests.

As ugly as Atlanta's offensive numbers have been recently, the Sixers have been even worse at that end of the floor.  They come in averaging just 85.2 PPG their last five, but that number is skewed by a horrid 68-point effort against San Antonio. Yes, the Sixers are the worst offensive team in the league by just about any measure. But, every once in a while, a team is at least "due" to break out and with Philly below 45% shooting in each of those L5 games (under 40% three times!), tonight is their night. It's really hard to continuously shoot that poorly.  Also, defensively, they have allowed 100+ pts in five of their last six games.

A decline in three-point shooting has really hurt the Hawks this year.  Only Golden State was better from beyond the arc last season, but this season has seen Atlanta drop to 18th (34.1 percent).  They were just 8 for 33 vs. Miami and 39.3 percent overall. Again though, tonight sees them in a favorable matchup that they should take advantage of.  Kyle Korver is due to get going while Jeff Teague is a virtual lock to improve upon his woeful 2 of 17 shooting the L2 games.  Again, the key here is can Philadelphia approaching 100 points? They scored 96 their last time out, including a 37-point second quarter (most in any quarter all season!), so they are capable.  Look for this one to sneak Over the total.  10* Over Sixers/Hawks

10* Texas Tech (8:00 ET): The Jackrabbits of South Dakota State are not a team to be taken lightly. They are 9-1 straight up (lost to Missouri-KC, a non-board team) and covered all seven lined games.  This includes B2B impressive performances. First they went to Minnesota and came away w/ a 14-point victory as 2.5 dogs. Then, I made the mistake of doubting their ability to cover a fairly large spread Sunday vs. UC Santa Barbara as they prevailed 86-68.  It was their third consecutive game scoring 80+, in fact.  However, I'm going to go against them again here as this time they have to hit the road to play a team that hasn't played in a week. Clearly, the oddsmakers have taken notice of SDSU and this line is simply way too short.

Texas Tech has lost only one time themselves, back in the second game of the year, which was on a neutral court against Utah.  Since then, they've won five in a row, including 68-49 over Tennessee Martin last Wednesday.  Having a full week off should have them ready to go for this one, their toughest test since their own win over Minnesota back on November 22nd. The Red Raiders average 73.7 points per game and attempted only 12 free throws in their last game. So, I expect a strong showing at the offensive end here. Against UT Martin, they jumped out to a 39-16 halftime advantage as a number of players turned in strong performances. With the time off, there's no reason to project any decline here. Playing w/ five or six days rest, the Red Raiders have gone 6-1 against the spread the L3 seasons. 

Remember Tubby Smith? He's the coach here in Lubbock.  He has never lost to South Dakota State in eight career matchups.  His team is playing solid defense (63 PPG allowed here at home).  I look for the Red Raiders to hold the Jackrabbits in relative check tonight. Certainly, it will be very difficult for South Dakota State to come close to matching its scorching 58.3 percent shooting from the UCSB game. The Jackrabbits have now won 21 straight home games. But they have a losing record on the road the L3 seasons (despite a 3-1 mark this year), including their one loss so far, again, to a non-board team. 10* Texas Tech

8* Under Celtics/Pistons (7:35 ET):  Things did not go well for the Celtics last night as they dropped a home game to Cleveland, 89-77 as two-point dogs. Still a top 10 team in the league, Boston shot a woeful 32.2 percent overall (9 for 32 from 3-pt range) yday. Naturally, you'd expect some improvement for tonight's visit to Detroit, but we also have a "tipping point" situation of sorts here as six of the last seven meetings with the Pistons have gone Over the total (including all three last season), plus the last three Detroit games have all gone Over as well.  That, combined w/ the fact that the Pistons are one of the worst shooting teams in the entire league, have me on the Under in this one.

The Pistons have topped 100 points in six of their last eight contests.  However, as I already mentioned, this team typically does not shoot the basketball well. Their "true" shooting percentage, which takes free throw attempts into account, is just 50.1, ahead of only Philadelphia. They are bottom 10 in terms of pace of play as well, so if they aren't making shots, that's trouble because they typically don't have a lot of opportunities. The team shoots just 42.3 percent from the field and has been at 50 percent or better in only three games all season. Surprisingly, the Over has cashed at a fairly high rate in their home games the L3 seasons, but that's due to change here as you should take note their last game (a 105-103 loss to the Clippers) went to overtime, so that final score is a little misleading. It was a 94-94 game at the end of regulation.

Defensively, Detroit is much improved this year, ranking in the top 10 in points allowed. They allow only 96.8 PPG at home.  Boston could manage only 31 second points yday and keep in mind that was at home. They did not score more than 25 pts in any quarter vs. the Cavaliers.  All-around, shooting has typically not been very good in Celtics' games this season. They are bottom six in the league themselves at 43.0 percent overall while opponents shoot only 43.3 percent, which is top 10.  Look for a low-scoring game in the Motor City tonight.  8* Under Celtics/Pistons

8* Houston (10:05 ET):  The Rockets are experiencing a very different season this year compared to last as they've gone from the best ATS team in the league to one of the worst. Kevin McHale was the early season scapegoat and while the team recently was able to win five of six, they lost again last night, 114-108 in Denver.  The team is now 9-16 at the betting window this season, but the good news for tonight is that they find themselves undervalued in Sacramento.  Though I got burned last night, twice, teams playing the second of B2B road games typically are undervalued as Houston is here. The Rockets are at least a respectable 4-4 SU/ATS as dogs this year and Sacramento typically isn't a team you want to lay points with.

If anything, the Kings probably "deserve" to lose here. They will be w/o Rajon Rondo due to some shameful remarks he made to a referee.  Rondo was actually having a resurgence this year, after LY's "lost" season in Dallas.  This is not a deep team and they were already w/o rookie Willie Cauley-Stein to begin with.  Rondo's absence places a huge burden on Boogie Cousins to carry the team. Rondo total 33 points, 25 rebounds and 16 assists in Sacramento's wins over Utah and the Knicks the L2 games and I don't know where HC George Karl turns to fill that lost production.  Shooting has dictated their last two results as the Kings shot 55% from the field themselves against the Jazz and then held the Knicks to 39%. A repeat of either performance is unlikely here. 

Meanwhile, this is a good matchup for Houston and not just because they've gone 16-4 SU the L20 meetings w/ Sacramento, including eight straight wins.  Like the Rockets, the Kings struggle defensively and they are one of the few teams in the league to allow more points per game than Houston does.  That means this one likely comes down to the respective offenses and right now the Rockets simply have more firepower.  It appears as if Dwight Howard is actually going to play in this second game of a back to back, which is rare.   8* Houston

10* Stanford (10:00 ET):  DePaul was a major letdown for me Saturday night as they got blown out (at home!) by unbeaten Arkansas Little-Rock 66-44.  The Blue Demons were actually favored in that contest, so in retrospect that looks like a case of "bad read" by me (does happen from time to time!). Coming off a SU loss as a favorite, one might be inclined to call for some sort of bounce back, but the underdog role has not served this team very well as they are 0-3 ATS in it, including double digit losses to South Carolina and Florida State. Tonight, they take on a Stanford team that's better than its 4-3 SU record, which includes games against SMU, St. Mary's and Villanova, all of whom were unbeaten going into last week. I'll lay the points in this one.

Since losing to three in a row, Stanford has responded w/ back to back wins over Arkansas and Dartmouth.  The latter came after a two-week break for finals and the Cardinal responded as you might expect; by quickly opening up a double-digit lead and never trailing.  That was actually just the second time they were favored this year; the first being the season opener when they failed to cover an eight-point spot here at home against WI-Green Bay.  But they've gotten much stronger defensively since that time, allowing an average of just 58.3 points per game during a 3-0 ATS streak, which includes a game vs. Villanova (neutral site). Facing an opponent that just scored only 44 points on its home floor seems like an ideal matchup to me.

This is also a massive revenge spot for Stanford, who lost outright as eight-point favorites LY in Chicago, 87-72.  DePaul shot the ball very well in that game (54.4 percent overall) while Stanford did not, at least from three-point range where they went a dismal 4 for 19.  They also attempted 13 less free throws.  Going back to Saturday, consider that the Blue Demons' opponent shot just 40.7% from the field and still was able to win on the road by 22 points. Not a good sign at all. Stanford just doesn't lose at home very often (31-8 SU L39 games at Maples Pavillion), so I have little issue with the pointspread in this one. 10* Stanford

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): I'm going back to this well again as the T'wolves' awful 3-9 SU/1-11 ATS home record is now REALLY "due" to improve, right?  As previously discussed, Minnesota has one of the most unusual home-road dichotomies going on in recent memory. While the young team has struggled to win at home, they are 6-5 SU/9-2 ATS on the road. My theory is that dichotomy is likely to start evening out over the long-term, and sure enough over the weekend we saw the T'wolves drop B2B road games in Denver & Phoenix. Tonight marks a chance to avenge one of those defeats, as the Nuggets come to town, and because of the past struggles it does appear that the home side is undervalued in this one. Lay the points. 

Denver had to play last night. They won for a second consecutive time, despite giving up 108 points. While it was a 111-108 final score against Minnesota on Friday, they won 114-108 over Houston on Monday.  A fast start (shot 68.2 percent in the 1st quarter and scored 36 points) was the key last night as the Nuggets were able to absorb the Rockets "answering the bell" w/ a 36-18 edge in the second quarter. Also key for Denver was the way they dominated the interior.  I don't see that happening here against a Minnesota team that more often than not wins the rebounding battle.  The offense has been way above average for the Nuggets of late, so I project a decline starting tonight. The team is just 2-7 ATS after scoring 105+ points its previous game. 

Though they've been scoring more than usual of late, Denver still only ranks 26th in the league in terms of offensive efficiency. They also rank 22nd in defensive efficiency, so this clearly is still a team that's a work in progress.  So too is Minnesota, but I believe the T'wolves will come in as the more "desperate" side here as they look to snap an ugly 1-6 SU slide.  Denver is just 1-4 ATS coming off a SU win as a dog and is 1-4 SU playing in the second game of a back to back. It looks as if Nuggets PG Emmanuel Mudiay is going to be out again, which hurts in the second night of a B2B.  Minnesota blew a 15-point halftime lead when these teams met Friday and won by 17 in Denver earlier this year, so they know this is an opponent they can dominate. For the 1st time this year, the T'wolves will cover as a favorite. 10* Minnesota

8* Utah (8:35 ET):  The Jazz are off a brutal loss on Sunday, falling 104-98 to the Thunder in overtime. They blew a double-digit halftime lead and despite scoring only two points in OT, OKC did enough for me to just barely send the game Over the total (I do realize that the number closed higher for some). There's no time for Utah to "cry over spilled milk," however, as tonight they are in San Antonio to play a Spurs team that has stayed under the radar due to Golden State's historic start.  That's just the way Greg Popovich likes it though as his team is 20-5 straight up (12-0 here at home) and outscoring opponents by 12.2 points per game. That being said, this is a really big number to lay in a game where so few points are expected (O/U line is 185.5!). I'm on the dog here.

Take nothing away from San Antonio, but to this point they have played the easiest schedule in the entire league, at least according to opponents' current win percentage.   Helping to inflate this line is the fact that the Spurs just destroyed the Hawks, in Atlanta, Saturday night. The final score there was 103-78 in a game they were only 2.5-point favorites.  Again, take your hat off for them, but it is highly unlikely that the Jazz will shoot as poorly here as the Hawks did in that game (just 37.5% overall).  Of course, we are also getting a good value here due to the fact Utah had to play on the road last night. Regular readers/clients of mine know I highly value this spot as the line is often shaded too high in favor of the rested home team (why I'm playing Philadelphia as well tonight). I've been making a veritable killing playing said spot this season.

Utah may only be 12-27 ATS its L39 trips to San Antonio, but this is a much better Jazz team than those past editions. The Spurs are #1 (by a mile) in the league right now in terms of defensive efficiency (allow just 91.9 points per 100 possessions, which is nearly five points fewer than the #2 team!). But the Jazz also rank near the top of the league in fewest points allowed, giving up just 96.5 PPG on the season.  They are also 8-2 ATS as underdogs this season, so expect this one to go down to the wire, despite the fact that the Jazz are playing w/o rest. They are 3-1 SU/ATS playing in the second night of a back to back this season.  8* Utah

8* Philadelphia (8:05 ET): We have a team playing the second of back to back road games here and while "it's the Sixers," there's still value to be had in this spot. I've written before about how I don't think this Chicago team is living up to its vaunted reputation as they are outscoring opponents by only a meager 0.4 points per 100 possessions, so they are hardly an outstanding candidate to be laying double digits to anyone at this juncture, even the lowly 76ers.  Philly is a solid 4-2 ATS when taking 12.5 or more points this year and this will likely be the most weight Chicago lays in a game all season.  Take the points.

Overall, the Bulls have gone just 1-5 at the betting window here in December and while they've won B2B games SU, those victories have come by a collective seven points. Both were here at home. You'd have to go back quite a long way to find this team's last double-digit victory. It did come in Philadelphia, back on November 9th, 111-88 as 10.5-pt chalk. But that win also represents their ONLY win by 10 or more points all season!  A 10-4 SU record in games decided by six points or less is what's kept them afloat. Sometimes, it is better to be "lucky than good" and make no mistake about it, a record such as that one represents good "luck."  It's no surprise to me to find Chicago at just 4-11 ATS when favored considering they are 28th in the league in offensive efficiency.  Only the Lakers and 76ers are worse.

Philadelphia lost by 20 last night in Toronto as they fell to a horrid 1-24 straight up this season.  However, for much of the game, it was a lot closer. It was actually a six-point game midway through the fourth quarter! Had they shot better (33 percent overall!) or scored more than 32 points in the second half, the margin wouldn't have been as great.  Really, it's that simple. Also, turning the ball over 22 times did the Sixers no favors.  Points off turnovers have just killed them all season as no team in the league has allowed more.  But in what shapes up as a low-scoring affair, taking the points is the way to go.  8* Philadelphia

10* Over Heat/Hawks (8:05 ET):  Though last night's game, a 100-97 come from behind win over Memphis, managed to go Over the total, the fact remains that Miami has been an Under bettor's "best friend" in the early part of the season.  The Under is now 17-5 in all of their games this season, including a perfect 7-0 on the road.  But don't think for a second that the oddsmakers are unaware of this little trend as tonight we have a really low total for the Heat's matchup with the Hawks.  Now, similarly, Atlanta has gone Under the total in six straight games.  But all this talk of Unders leads me to believe that we've reached a "tipping point" of sorts and it's time to go Over the total instead.  Yes, take the Over here.

Miami certainly hasn't had much luck against their Southeast Division rival the L3 seasons, going just 1-7 SU/ATS against them, including 0-4 SU/ATS here in Atlanta.  Earlier this year, it was a 98-92 Hawks' win on South Beach as the Heat shot a woeful 5 for 28 from three-point range, just 17.8%.  Needless to say, I would expect a higher shooting percentage this evening. Of particular interest to me here is the fact that tonight's total is nearly seven full points lower than what it was for that first matchup. So, clearly the oddsmakers have taken notice of what the Heat have been doing.  It's times like this that I like to take advantage of such a "market shift."  The Hawks are 12-4 Over their L16 home games when the O/U line falls into the 190 to 194.5 point range.

Now, Atlanta is coming off an ugly performance its last time out, a 103-78 loss to the Spurs.  That was here at home and it ended up being the Hawks' lowest scoring game of the season to date.  But considering the O/U line was 200 points or higher four of their previous five games, I'd say there's some pretty significant value to be had here.  As is the case w/ Miami from the last meeting, Atlanta should see its own shooting improve from the game against San Antonio where they finished just 37.5 percent from the field, including an awful 5 of 24 from three-point range.  They certainly should do better than 25 points in the first half, which is what they had vs. the Spurs, here. That's for certain. 10* Over Heat/Hawks

10* Over Jazz/Thunder (7:05 ET):  This is the second game of a home and home between these two Northwest Division rivals. Friday, it was Oklahoma City winning by four (as four-point favorites) in Utah. But, for our purposes here, the focus is on that it was such a low-scoring game (94-90), staying WAY under the total.  Dating back to right before Thanksgiving, the Thunder have been an Under team. They are 8-1 Under their L9 games; this despite being second in the league (behind Golden State obviously) in terms of offensive efficiency. High totals are responsible for the Under streak, though that really hasn't been the determining factor that the Under is a perfect 6-0 the L6 meetings with the Jazz. That being said, I like the Over here.

Neither of these teams shot the ball particularly well Friday. Oklahoma City was at 46.8 percent, Utah was at 42.3 percent. The Jazz really struggled from three-point range, going 8 for 28, and I'd expect them to improve in that department Sunday. I say that because they remain one of the top three-point shooting teams in the league this season at 36.6 percent.  At the same time, Utah has begun to slip a bit defensively, allowing 100+ points in four of the last six games. Not having Rudy Gobert in the middle hurts. Note that the first time these teams played this season, OKC scored 111 points.  The Thunder's YTD offensive numbers would look even better had Kevin Durant not missed several games.

The key for this Over bet is Utah also improving on the offensive end. I already spoke about the three-point shooting and that's going to be huge as in five of the last six meetings w/ OKC, they've been below 29 percent from behind the arc. They have not won here in OKC in eight tries, never scoring more than 96 points. I'd say they are due to break through that benchmark. The Thunder have been surprisingly good on the defensive end recently, allowing fewer than 100 pts in nine of the last 11 games, including an average of 89.5 in the two wins over the Jazz.  But the Over is on a 10-4 run in Thunder home games when the total falls into the 200 to 204.5 point range. 10* Over Jazz/Thunder

8* UC Santa Barbara (3:00 ET): Looking at UCSB's non-conference slate thus far, one takeaway I have is that it's a good thing the Gauchos aren't in the Pac 12.  Some VERY aggressive early  season scheduling has had them play FOUR Pac 12 team thus far, all resulting in losses. So, I don't put a ton of stock into this 2-4 SU record of theirs considering that they've actually been an underdog in every game. That role doesn't change Sunday afternoon as they play ANOTHER "true" road game (5th already!) at South Dakota State, who is 8-1 straight up and a perfect 6-0 against the spread.  The Jackrabbits have taken their own act out on the road several times as well and are off a surprising win at Minnesota Tuesday. But, to me, the key here is that UCSB has had plenty of time to prepare as their last game took place all the way back on December 3rd.  Take the points.

In addition to winning at Minnesota earlier this week, SDSU has also gone to both Illinois State and TCU and pulled off outright upsets (each time as a very small dog) on the road.  Interestingly enough, their one loss came at the hands of the one non-board team they faced on the road, Missouri-KC.  That game saw them shoot a season-worst 39.7 percent from the field.  But the Jackrabbits were impressive before and ever since, particularly against Minnesota, whom they led from start to finish (including a 23-pt advantage at the half!). This is the favorite in the Summit League this season (made the NCAA Tournament in 2012, 2013, then won 24 games LY). However, I think that the fast start has them overvalued here against an opponent that will be rested and ready.

SDSU hasn't lost a home game since January, but UCSB is no stranger to the road.  The Gauchos are 17-12 ATS out on the road the L3 seasons, including a 3-1 mark this year. Having already gone into a variety of hostile environments this season, they won't be intimidated in the least by today's venue. Note that two of their losses have been by a combined three points.  Ten days ago against USC, they trailed by only three at the half and it was a two point game inside of six minutes to go. Late free throws were responsible for the final margin.  I just think that South Dakota State's stock is a little too high right now.  8* UC Santa Barbara

10* DePaul (10:00 ET):  If you're a regular reader/subscriber, then you already know that I've been strategically targeting the dwindling list of remaining unbeatens in College Basketball, which is now down to 10 teams. Three of them are underdogs Saturday, one of them being possibly the least known of the lot, Arkansas Little-Rock.  The Trojans come in at 7-0 SU and 4-0 ATS, but let's face the fact that we still know very little about this team despite a pair of upsets (on the road!) over San Diego State and Tulsa. They just got done playing the slowest game of the week (credit KenPom), a 64-54 win over Idaho, their second opponent this year that rates outside the top 250. They've also played three non-lined (meaning non D-I) opponents.  I look for Depaul to hand them their first loss of the season. Lay the points.

The Blue Demons seem to be over an early season three-game slide as they've won four straight, three of those coming by double digits. They too are off a road win, 74-71 at Drake on Wednesday, a game where their early season shooting success continued. They finished at 57.1% from the field for the game, the third time in the last four games they were at 54 percent or better.  Facing an opponent that is allowing just 54.6 PPG on 35.7% shooting will undoubtedly be a challenge, but one the Blue Demons should be up for.  Four players finished in double figures against Drake and there have been three times this season the team has scored 80+.  Depaul is 4-0 SU as a favorite this season and 14-5 SU in that role the past three seasons.

As for ALR, they are off an extended break and history says that will not be kind to them.  The Trojans are just 1-7 ATS the L3 seasons when playing w/ 5 or 6 days rest and that amount of time off can really break a team's "momentum" (granted, I hate that word), especially one that is off to the best start in program history.  Tip your cap to the Trojans for being tied for the most "true" road wins in the country (3), but their unbeaten run ends tonight in what is an unusually late start time (favors the home side) on national TV.  I just don't think the Trojans have the horses to keep pace in what likely ends up as their highest scoring game to date.  10* DePaul

10* LA Lakers (8:05 ET):  Subscribers/regular readers might find this selection a tad bit "unusual" considering just last night I went AGAINST these sorry Lakers and came away w/ a relatively easy win and cover on the Spurs, who were laying double digits and without Tony Parker (rest). However, as ridiculously low as that line may have been (in my analysis, I talked about how my own ratings said the number should have been at least -20!), tonight's number seems equally as unfair, only this time to the Lakers' opponent! You're telling me that Houston should only be laying three points less than San Antonio to the same opponent? Have you seen the Rockets play this year? My theory that teams playing in the second of B2B road games are often undervalued has treated me extremely well all season and I'll go back to it again here tonight. Take the points.

The Lakers are now a horrible 3-20 straight up this season and have just one win in their last 13 games. But that one win did come early in this road trip, when playing w/o rest, at Washington. I also took them when they traveled to Toronto, the night after losing by 20 in Detroit.  So, despite this being the finale of an eight-game, 12-day trip, the situation is not as bad for LA as it may look.   Thankfully, Kobe Bryant has ceded some control of the offense to #2 overall DC D'Angelo Russell, who has led the team in scoring each of the L2 games.  Though the final score ended up being one-sided last night, it was only an eight-point game heading into the fourth quarter.  The Lakers are 4-1 ATS playing the second game of a back to back this season.

Houston has been one of the league's biggest disappointments this season.  They made Kevin McHale the early season scapegoat, but even after his firing, the team has continued to struggle. Yes, they have seemingly turned things around recently w/ SU wins in six of their last eight, but they've played a lot of bad teams during that stretch and there hasn't been a single double-digit victory to speak of. In fact, their largest margin of victory ALL SEASON has been seven points! They had the best ATS record in the league a year ago, but now find themselves near the bottom of those standings this year (funny how that works out!), including a 3-10 ATS mark at home.  10* LA Lakers

8* Cincinnati (5:30 ET):  This annual cross-town rivalry is being brought to you by Skyline Chilli this year and I'd like to take just a moment to "put over" how much I like Skyline Chilli.  Also appetizing are the points underdog Cincinnati is receiving on Saturday as they look to snap a two-year losing streak to Xavier. The favored Musketeers come in as just one of 10 unbeaten teams left in the country and as you know, I've been targeting that dwindling list for the last week or so. Xavier is getting plenty of "run" lately, due to the impressive 9-0 SU start and is 6-3 ATS at the betting window as well. But Cincy is a formidable challenger given that their lone loss this season came on a buzzer-beater. Last year's meeting was also decided by a margin of two, so take the points. 

Both teams come into this game ranked for the first time in 22 years.  I admit that to this point Xavier has been very impressive.  They went to Ann Arbor and destroyed Michigan by 16, their one "true" road game thus far. A 35-point beatdown of Wright State on Tuesday marked the Musketeers fifth consecutive win while covering the spread (were -23.5).  There's been just one time all season that they've won by a single digit margin and it wasn't against Alabama, USC or Dayton (it was the opener vs. Miami (OH)).  But you have to wonder what happens when Xavier gets "hit in the mouth" for the first time. This easily projects to be their toughest game of the season to date and while the advanced stats love the Musketeers, I actually believe Cincinnati is the better team here.

The key today will be the Bearcats' defense. The last two years have seen them allow their highest shooting percentage of the season to Xavier. Last year, three-point shooting was the difference.  The Musketeers were 58.8 percent from behind the arc; Cincy was just 4 for 16 (25%). I don't see that discrepancy taking place again today as the Bearcats are better offensively this year w/ eight players averaging at least 7.3 points per game. Also, they allow the third-lowest field goal percentage in the country on two-point attempts (36.5%) while blocking a lot of shots and not fouling. The revenge factor is huge as well. Don't discount that Cincy beat George Washington, the team that beat Virginia, either. 8* Cincinnati

10* California (3:30 ET):  What a difference a week makes. Last Saturday, I went AGAINST Cal, as they played their first "true" road game of the season in Laramie, Wyoming. As you saw, that is no easy place to play and the Bears needed overtime to get by the underdog Cowboys, 78-72, but they failed to cover as 7.5-pt chalk. After following up that close call w/ a "ho-hum" win over Incarnate Word, Cal now is set to take on its strongest foe of the season to date, that being unbeaten St. Mary's.  The Gaels come into this one a perfect 6-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread, but are the underdogs and for good reason. This is their first "true" road game of the campaign and thus I'll back the Bears, who are 6-0 SU in Berkeley, as a slight fave.

St. Mary's, out of the WCC, already has one win over a Pac 12 team this season, that being Stanford back on November 22nd (78-61, -3.5).  But honestly, the Cardinal fall outside the top 100 in most rating systems (Vegas, KenPom, etc) while Cal is formerly ranked in the Top 25.  The other competition the Gaels have taken on thus far leaves a lot to be desired and note that despite red-hot 61.5% shooting in the first half of their last game (vs. UC Irvine), they couldn't really shake their opponents, leading by only three at halftime. The likelihood of a similar shooting performance this afternoon is pretty low, I'd say.  Not only is this SMC's 1st true road game, but it is the first time they've been an underdog this season. That's a role that has not treated them well the past two seasons as they're just 3-9 SU/4-8 ATS when taking points.

This is a 12:30 PM local start for the two teams, which is pretty early. I'd say that greatly favors the home side. Yes, Cal was a big "sluggish" on Wednesday and seemed to struggle against a zone defense.   But this is a team that's really had only one poor offensive showing all season, that coming against San Diego State.  St. Mary's is due to have its own shooting decline and speaking of "due," a five-game ATS losing skid for the home team is due to turn around as well.   Remember that SMC lost all five starters from LY and that Cal was projected to contend for a Pac 12 Conference Title. The Bears have too much talent, most notably potential lottery pick Jaylen Brown, to lose here. 10* California

8* San Antonio (9:35 ET):  This is a case of "wrong place, wrong time" for the Lakers, who are sorry enough to begin with, but a trip to San Antonio when the Spurs are off a rare defeat  should not go well at all. Wednesday night saw Greg Popovich's team lose for just the fifth time all season (all on the road), 97-94 as six-point favorites in Toronto. It's how they've responded to those previous four defeats that has caught my eye, however, as they've outscored opponents by an impressive 20.5 points per game (all double digit wins) while going a perfect 4-0 against the spread. At home, the Spurs are a perfect 11-0 SU, holding teams to an average of just 85.6 PPG, so I'm not joking when I say this line should be higher than -20.  Lay the big number here.

This isn't the first time I've laid a big number against the Lakers this season.  Perhaps you'll recall the night the Warriors set a NBA record for most consecutive wins to start a season, they were 17.5-point chalk against the Lakers. I laid the number and the result was a 111-77 massacre. The Spurs have the capability to do the same thing tonight.  I talked about the outstanding defensive numbers already and the result of that is they outscore teams, on average, by about 14.3 PPG here at home. Factoring in the fact the Lakers (who allow 106.3 PPG) are getting outscored by double digits on the road, you can see how I come to the conclusion that this line should certainly exceed -20.

Do you think Kobe Bryant might struggle shooting the ball against this Spurs' defense? Bryant, easily the league's worst jump shooter right now, goes up against a team that's held its previous opponents to a collective 42.1 field goal percentage this season. Kobe finds himself well below that threshold as he's at 30.9% for the season and an even worse 28.6% the L10 games. Yet, he'll continue to shoot far too much and that's just fine by me.   The Spurs lead the league in terms of defensive efficiency, are clearly the second best team in the league and taking on a foe that is a horrific 3-19 SU overall (just one win in L12 games). Were in not for Golden State and Philadelphia, these teams would be at complete opposite ends of the NBA spectrum. 8* San Antonio

10* Charlotte (8:05 ET):  This is one of those games where my own personal power ratings are in significant disagreement w/ the oddsmakers. While Memphis comes in as the favorite, my rankings say they shouldn't be. This team has been too prone to getting blown out, here at home in particular, as Tuesday's 125-88 loss to the Thunder marked the fourth time this season that the Grizzlies lost to a top 10 team by at least 20 points. They followed that up with a miraculous 93-92 win in Detroit Wednesday (Matt Barnes' half-court heave), but you might be shocked to learn that Charlotte is another top 10 foe that the Grizz should struggle against. The fact the Hornets are an impressive 18-5 ATS (3-0 ATS this year!) as a road underdog of +3.5 to +6 may not even matter as they outscore teams by 5.2 points per 100 possessions, a rate which trails only the "big 3" in the West (Golden State, San Antonio, Oklahoma City)! Take the points.

Over its L10 games, the Hornets have lost only two times - to Cleveland and Golden State.  They come into tonight on an impressive three-game win streak as they've won at Chicago, then blown out both Detroit & Miami (by a combined 38 pts) at home. A big reason for their success is that they've gotten back to playing that great defense they were known for two seasons ago (when they made the playoffs), holding four of their last seven opponents under 88 points. But they also join the Warriors and Spurs as the only three teams in the league to currently rate in the top seven in both offensive and defensive efficiency. No team in the league turns it over fewer times per game than do the Hornets (just 11.3).

Memphis, meanwhile, has issues. They are averaging only 95.8 PPG for the year and while they've gone nearly a month w/o dropping B2B games straight up, they're only 3-9 ATS at home. Again, it was a fortunate win on Wednesday as not only did they trail by seven entering the fourth quarter, but Barnes' half-court shot was ill-conceived as it came w/ 1.1 seconds still on the clock. In terms of actual vs. expected wins (based on YTD point differential), no team is more "off" than the Grizzlies, who according to their -4.5 per game point differential should have a losing record. 10* Charlotte

8* Boston (7:35 ET):  Well, here it is.  If Golden State (now 23-0 SU) is to drop a game on this seven-game trip, this is the more likely spot (finale at Milwaukee tomorrow). As a reminder, no team in NBA history has EVER swept a road trip of seven or more games.  So far, they are 3-2 ATS on this trip w/ Utah and Toronto coming close to upsetting them (both three point games). I took the points w/ the Raptors last Saturday, a winner, then actually laid the big number w/ the Warriors the following day as they blew out Brooklyn. However, my "luck" ran out on Tuesday as six points wasn't quite enough for Indiana in a wild 131-123 game. However, the big story coming out of that contest was the ankle injury to Klay Thompson, the first sign that the Warriors may not be infallible after all. Thompson is currently listed as questionable for tonight, but either way, I'll take the points.

Boston will be the best team that Golden State has played this season. You read that correctly.  A pretty compelling case can be made that the Celtics have been the East's best team to this point as they currently lead the Conference in per game point differential (+5.4) and have the second most double digit victories (trailing only Golden St) in the league.  In fact, only two of their 13 victories this season have come by LESS than a 13-pt margin! One of those was their last time out, 105-100 over Chicago. But they still covered there (were only -3.5), improving to 5-0 ATS L5. A real key here is that Boston actually ranks above Golden State in terms of defensive efficiency. Prior to tonight, the Warriors have not faced any of the four teams ahead of them in that particular category.

Though their defensive efficiency is good (98.2 points allowed per 100 possessions), the Warriors are allowing 105.8 PPG on the road. Some of that is owed to the pace at which they play (league's third fastest), but the fact they've gotten away with allowing 116+ points four times this season (all on the road) and still covered every time seems pretty preposterous.  I'm not sure that the Celtics win here, but I love them plus the points as they are 5-2 ATS already as underdogs and come in averaging 108.0 points their L5 games. 8* Boston

10* New York (10:35 ET):  Needless to say, we may want to "pump the brakes" a little bit on this Knicks' "resurgence" as last night saw them get absolutely humiliated in Utah. The 105-86 final score doesn't even begin to tell the "whole story" as the Jazz quickly jumped out to a 29-11 lead after one quarter and the advantage grew to as many as 33 points (70-37!) midway through the third quarter.  As bad of a game as that was for New York, I feel that it offers us an excellent opportunity to "buy low" here as my own personal power ratings suggest that Sacramento shouldn't be favored by more than a basket here. Also, as I mentioned in the other two game analysis in this report, teams playing in the second of B2B road games are generally undervalued to begin with. Take the points here.

When Boogie Cousins is happy and in the lineup, the Kings are a much better team. Here at home, they beat Utah Tuesday night, 114-106 and they actually closed as a three-point favorite for that contest.  They got out to a sizable early lead that they would never relinquish thanks to red-hot 55.6 percent shooting, not their best for the season, but pretty close.  On the defensive end, where typically this team is not very good at all (29th in points allowed), they somehow got away w/ allowing the Jazz to connect on 15 of 36 three-point attempts. In a weird twist, Utah was only 23 of 56 (41 percent) from two-point range. That's simply not indicative of the poor defense we generally see from the Kings on a game by game basis. Cousins continues to battle through back and ankle injuries and that could very well limit his usage here, which would be a huge hit to Sacramento's chances of winning, let alone covering.

The Knicks are just 2-7 SU/ATS their L9 games with the two wins coming over Brooklyn and Philadelphia. That's played a significant role in this line being inflated.  But I like them very much in this price range due to the fact the team is a solid 8-2 against the spread taking 4.5 or more points from the oddsmakers this season. I'm willing to write off last night as simply being "one of those nights" as it's highly unlikely that Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis combine to shoot 5 of 19 from the field (like they did last night) again.  Sacramento has been favored by this many points only one other time all season and the result ended up being a two-point win over Brooklyn here at home.  10* New York

8* LA Clippers (8:05 ET):  I've written before that the early returns on Fred Hoiberg's Bulls haven't been all that impressive despite a somewhat successful WL record. However, now the team is just 11-8 SU and in eighth place in a much improved East and you might be surprised to learn that a number of key metrics say that position is pretty much indicative of where they "are at" right now. Following a loss in a Boston last night, 105-100 as 3.5-point pups, Chicago finds itself essentially dead even in points allowed vs. scored per 100 possessions and their record would be a lot worse if not for an 8-4 SU record in games decided by six points or less. Only Brooklyn and Philadelphia have been worse in terms of offensive efficiency this season and the Bulls are only 2-8 ATS at home.

The Clippers also played Wednesday night, however, their result was far more to their liking as they went to Milwaukee and easily handled the Bucks.  The 109-95 win and cover gives Doc Rivers' team a three-game win streak and overall they've won six of seven. Quite simply, these are two teams trending in opposite directions right now.  Chicago has dropped three in a row (four straight ATS) and while they've all been close games, the results have been somewhat predictable given their "lucky" 8-1 (SU) start to the season in games decided by six points or less.  Hoiberg replacing a proven commodity in Tom Thibodeau was supposed to make the Bulls a better offensive team this year, but somehow they've managed to actually regress at that end of the floor. Hoiberg is already tinkering (unsuccessfully) w/ lineups and appears to be somewhat "in over his head" at this point.

If you're a regular client of mine, then you know I've been making a veritable "killing" taking teams playing the second of back to back road games this season. That's the situation the Clips find themselves in here and will be the underlying theme of this entire three-game report.  Being on the road shouldn't bother LA much tonight as they are a fantastic 12-4 ATS their past 16 visits to the Windy City. The bottom line here is that the Bulls are just an average team right now. 8* LA Clippers

8* Atlanta (8:05 ET):  Here we go again w/ another team playing the second of back to back road games. This time it's the Hawks, who last night went into Dallas and pulled out an impressive 98-95 win as slight two-point favorites. One might think that result makes them prone for a letdown here, but I'll disagree and given how generous the oddsmakers are being, it's an appropriate time to take advantage. The Hawks beat Oklahoma City, in Atlanta, 106-100 as a three-point dog just ten days ago, so this line definitely looks inflated. The Thunder have covered just three of their last 12 games overall.  Take the points.

At this point in the season, it's difficult to make "heads or tails" with the Hawks.  It's a much improved Eastern Conference and coming into the season, I think everybody (myself included) felt regression was somewhat inevitable following LY's stunning 60-win campaign. But I don't see any reason this team can't still finish second in the Conference behind Cleveland.  Defense was the key last night as they held the Mavericks to just 36% shooting, the lowest percentage all season by an opponent. That being said, in each of their last three victories, the opposition has been below 40 percent overall.  You don't find this Atlanta team as an underdog all that often, especially in this price range, so I say let's take advantage.

Meanwhile, I think it's become quite clear where the Thunder fit in the Western Conference pecking order.  Clearly, they are not as good as the Warriors or Spurs, but it's a weakened West this year and I'd be stunned if the Thunder didn't finish in third place overall. Still though, the jury is still out on the Billy Donovan hire as many of the same issues exist (offensively) that were there under Scott Brooks. The Thunder did roll into Memphis and destroy the Grizzlies Tuesday night, 125-88, but that particular opponent has been strangely prone to getting blown out all season. It's unlikely that OKC will duplicate it's 56 percent (season-high!) shooting from that game here and defensively this is a squad that still gives up 101.6 points per game. They are just 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS vs. teams w/ a winning record this season. 8* Atlanta

8* Iowa (7:30 ET):  While the Hawkeyes' football team just had its hope of an unbeaten season wrecked by Michigan State in the Big 10 Championship Game, the school's basketball team can now play the role of "spoiler" itself as they get set to face unbeaten in-state rival Iowa State.  Iowa isn't too shabby itself, however, coming in at 7-2 SU w/ the only two losses coming in Florida to Notre Dame and Dayton and both were close. This will not be their first "true" road game of the season as already Fran McCaffery's team has gone to Marquette and won by 28 (as just four-point favorites).  This will obviously be a much tougher challenge, but note I went against ISU earlier in the week, taking Buffalo +22, and came away w/ the ATS win.   Take the points again here.

Iowa has not won in Ames in six years and last year lost to the Cyclones at home, 90-75, as 5.5-point favorites.  That loss snapped a 31-game home win streak for the Hawkeyes over non-conference competition, so this is a big revenge spot for them.  They shot the ball very poorly in LY's meeting, just 39.4 percent overall from the floor, while ISU was at 53.1 percent (including 12-27 from 3-pt range). Even factoring in the change of venue, I wouldn't expect the respective shooting percentages to be that far apart tonight. Iowa has averaged 86.9 PPG during its four-game win streak, admittedly against lesser competition, but there's been only one game all season that they didn't top 75 points (loss to Notre Dame), so they do have the firepower to stick w/ the favored Cyclones here.

This will also certainly be the toughest test of the season so far for Iowa State, a team that had to replace a high-profile HC in the offseason (Fred Hoiberg) that went to the NBA (Bulls).  Two games ago, against North Dakota State, they led by only two w/ 12 minutes remaining. So, a 20-point final margin of victory was a tad bit misleading.  So too was the 84-63 win over Buffalo Monday as the Cyclones led by just one w/ just over 13 minutes remaining. They will not be able to be so "casual" w/ tonight's opponent, who is 3-0 ATS the L3 times it has been a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points.  As mentioned in Monday's analysis, ISU doesn't get to the FT line enough and I'm projecting Iowa to have a big advantage in rebounding here. Also, the fact the Hawkeyes are allowing just 28.9 % shooting from 3-pt range should serve them well. 8* Iowa

8* Orlando (9:05 ET): Again, it's back to the well w/ a team playing in the second of B2B road games. This time, it's the Magic, who are coming off an impressive 85-74 win in Denver last night. No team has been better than Orlando at the betting window this season, not even Golden State. The Magic are now 14-6-1 ATS overall and that includes a sterling 10-3 mark as an underdog w/ six outright wins. Getting points here makes them a great value in my estimation as the struggling Suns return home having dropped eight of their L10 games. They won both the first and last game of a six-game swing out East, the latter coming at the buzzer in Chicago, 103-101 as six-point pups. I don't see them being as lucky here as teams returning home after such a long trip typically struggle their first game back at home. Take the points.

Orlando, meanwhile, is trending in the opposite direction as they have won six of seven (6-0-1 ATS!) and their only loss during that time came by two points Saturday against the Clippers (pushed as two-point dogs).  Whether folks simply aren't paying attention or it's simply the stink of the post-Dwight Howard years, this is a very good under the radar team right now.  Sure, it will be difficult to duplicate last night's season best effort on the defensive end as they held the Nuggets to just 74 points on 33.3% shooting. But, at the same time, you can expect improvement offensively as the Magic were just 1 of 16 from three-point range vs. the Nuggets.  The discrepancy from last night in terms of offensive production (compared to YTD averages) was far greater than any discrepancy in defensive numbers as opponents are shooting just 41.8 percent for the season against Orlando.  The Magic are also unlikely to turn the ball over 20 times again like they did last night as well.

Phoenix, meanwhile, has major issues on the defensive end as they give up 105.2 PPG, one of the worst averages in the entire league (only four teams worse).  They've played nothing but close games of late, in fact, each of their last six contests have been decided by five points or fewer.  So, there's no real reason to want to lay points w/ this bunch right now, especially w/ the defensive issues. The Magic are simply the better team right now. 8* Orlando

10* Wichita State (9:00 ET):  Do not make the mistake of judging Wichita State by its disappointing record. Instead, remember that this was a Final Four team three years ago and and one that has gone 62-4 SU in the regular season the last two years. Injuries have played a significant role in this season's disappointing start.  Most notably, senior Fred VanVleet missed all three games of the Advocare Invitational (in Florida) and the result was the team dropping all three games. But VanVleet returned to the lineup Saturday as WSU picked up a big-time road win over an always gritty St. Louis team, 68-53 as 6.5-pt chalk.  With VanVleet back, I think this team is ready to roll, starting w/ a visit from UNLV Wednesday. Lay the points.

This will be UNLV's first "true" road game of the season, although technically they did play D-II Chaminade in the Maui Invitational. The Rebels cashed for me last Friday as they handed Oregon its first loss of the season, in Vegas.  That was an impressive win as they led the Ducks by double digits most of the way (biggest lead = 20 points) and were actually a slight dog. They shot 43.5 percent from three-point range, which was huge. It also helped that Oregon shot just 32.4% themselves and didn't score a single point over the game's final 3:30.  While it was the Rebels' second upset victory over a ranked opponent in the L3 games, this shapes up as their toughest test to date. Over the L3 seasons, Dave Rice's team is just 7-23 SU as a dog, by the way.

Sure, I was pretty complimentary of Rice's Rebels when I took them against Oregon, plus they cashed for me in Maui, taking points, against UCLA.  But, when healthy, I like this Wichita State team a lot more than all previous UNLV opponents.  Yes, transfer Anton Grady is still out with a concussion.  But, at the risk of beating a dead horse, VanVleet is the key cog here.  Also, there is a rumor that Connor Frankamp, who has been ineligible due to grades, surprisingly could make his season debut here.  That would be a huge plus.  This is a team that was preseason Top 10, has only played two home games and had to battle through injuries.  They are undervalued in this spot.  10* Wichita State

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Tonight, HAS to be the night, right? The T'wolves are now an unfathomably bad 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS at home following another close loss on Monday, 110-106 to the Clippers.  They are now in danger of a winless homestand (tonight is fourth game) and the previous three were all decided by six points or less.  They've blown back to back second half leads, the first coming against Portland (led by 17 in the third quarter) and then a three point lead in the final minute to the Clippers (gave up 39 pts in the fourth quarter). All things considered, you might be surprised to find the T'wolves favored and even more surprised that I'm willing to lay the number here, but the Lakers are the "gift that keeps on giving," and, in fact, the T'wolves have already beaten them once this season.

My strategy of taking teams playing the second of B2B road games has been fairly "foolproof" this season, so much so that even the Lakers cashed in the role Monday night in Toronto. Catching a generous 13.5 points, they lost 103-92, but that's where the positivism ends with this awful team. They are 3-17 SU for the year and have dropped 10 of 11 overall. All but one of those L10 losses have come by double digits! Kobe Bryant's shooting has descended into the abyss, to the point where it's absolutely fair to call him the worst shooter in the entire NBA.  He's shooting just 31 percent overall the L5 games, almost identical to his overall season average (30.6%!), which is beyond atrocious. Speaking of atrocious, there's the Lakers on the defensive end as they've allowed 100+ points in 11 straight games.

These two faced off in the season opener and it was Minnesota coming away with a 112-111 win as three-point dogs.  However, close games generally haven't gone the T'wolves way this season as they have only two other wins by five points or less all season (both at home).  Their last four losses have come by a total of 21 points.  But we shouldn't have to worry about any of that here as the Lakers are being outscored by 11 PPG on the road this season. Lay the points. 8* Minnesota

8* Houston (7:05 ET):  We're going back to the well this evening w/ two more teams playing in the second of B2B road games that are being undervalued. (Portland was the latest winner in this role last night).  First up, we have the Rockets, who just last year had the top ATS mark (59.2%) in the league. That certainly isn't the case this year as they are down to 31.8% (worst in the league!) after a SU/ATS loss last night in Brooklyn. They had won and covered three straight prior, but that was also after closing November in disastrous fashion (1-10 ATS). Tonight, they find themselves in the Nation's Capital to face off w/ another disappointing team, the Wizards, who are equally awful defensively. This is a good matchup for Houston.  Take the points.

The Rockets clearly entered this season overvalued based on last year's run to the Western Conference Finals.  More often than not, they've been favored and the result there has been a 4-11 mark at the betting window in that role.  But, in the more uncommon role of underdog, they are 3-4 - both SU and ATS, which isn't terrible.  The last time we found them taking points was last Friday in Dallas and they pulled the outright upset there, 100-96 as five-point pups. They followed that up w/ a 120-113 win (-3) over Sacramento.  But last night, many of their "old" problems resurfaced, namely James Harden turning the ball over too much (while scoring a season-low 10 pts) and just plain bad defense. As a team, Houston gave it away 24 times and they allowed the Nets to shoot 55.6% from the floor. That simply should not happen and I'll look for improvement across the board tonight.

This game has the chance to be one of the highest scoring NBA games of the year.  Just like the Rockets, the Wizards have been terrible defensively, giving up 106.3 PPG here at home. Interestingly, despite the faster pace of play, Washington ranks in the bottom 10 in the league in terms of offensive efficiency as well.  Two nights ago, the team did go into Miami and pull off a surprising 114-103 upset (despite allowing 59% shooting). That was just the third time all year that the Wiz shot 50% (or better) in a game, however, and they are 0-3 ATS this season off a SU win as a dog (no B2B wins in three weeks!). Houston is 0-7 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite themselves, so something has to give. I say it's the Rockets that cover here. 8* Houston

8* Indiana (7:05 ET):  As I've mentioned in previous writeups, no team in NBA history has ever swept a road trip of at least seven games. But for 22-0 Golden State, it's "four down, three more to go" as they continue this incredible, record-setting start to the season. You'll recall that I went against them Saturday when they were laying seven points in Toronto and the margin was never greater than three (either way) over the final nine minutes of the fourth quarter there.  The following day (Sunday) I was correct in calling the Warriors "undervalued" (in the second game of a B2B) at Brooklyn and after a slow start, they ended up blowing the Nets out, 114-98 as 10-pt chalk.  I think tonight's game at Indiana shapes up a lot like the one in Toronto and I'm taking the points.

The pressure is starting to mount for Golden State and I expect a lot of people to wisely start fading them until they finally lose a game (which obviously will happen). Going back to November 19th, they are 8-2 against the spread and their YTD +14.9 per game point differential is the best in league history through 22 games. While there's been only one stretch all season where they played three straight "close games" (meaning decided by single digits), over the L4, they've alternated close and blowout wins. Two of those last four (Utah, Toronto) were decided by just three points each. If there's one hole to poke in the Warriors' impressive resume, it's that they are allowing 104.4 PPG on the road.

Indiana will be the best team Golden State has faced so far this season. Remember that the Western Conference has taken a collective step back this year, in spite of the Warriors (and Spurs) dominance. I have the Pacers rated ahead of Toronto (from a power ratings perspective), who gave the Warriors two of their toughest games of the season. Indiana has been covering spreads too; they went 11-1 ATS in November. But after opening December w/ an impressive road win over the Clippers, they've now dropped B2B games (SU/ATS) at Portland/Utah.  So there's plenty of motivation here, not just to knock off the unbeaten Warriors, but to bounce back as well.  Indiana is 6-0 ATS this season when playing on exactly two days rest and 7-0 ATS when taking on teams w/ a wining SU record. They are one of the few teams that can keep pace w/ the Warriors' scoring as they've averaged 112.8 points their L8 games.  8* Indiana

10* Portland (7:05 ET):  This is a classic spot where I feel the majority of bettors will be going one way and I'll be going in the opposite direction.  Cleveland is back at home after losing three straight (two on the road), the latest defeat coming Saturday in Miami when LeBron James decided to rest (was the 2nd game of a B2B). This is their longest losing streak of the year and in comes a Portland team that lost last night in Milwaukee. Most will call for the bounce back here, but I think the number is inflated due to the fact the visitors are w/o rest. If you've been a regular client of mine, then you I've really been "raking in the dough" with this strategy all season long, even cashing the Lakers last night.  Take the points.

Remember that Cleveland is short-handed.  It's not as bad as LY's NBA Finals when they were w/o BOTH Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, but the latter still hasn't played a game this season, nor has fellow backcourt mate Iman Shumpert.  The lack of depth is starting to show as LeBron is having to carry the team to no avail. He bailed them out w/ a game winner vs. Brooklyn, here at home, back on November 28th and then almost single-handedly led a rally last Friday against a bad New Orleans team. Overall, the Cavs have lost four in a row ATS and are just 7-13 at the betting window for the season (5-12 when favored). Their early season schedule was REALLY weak as they played teams like Philadelphia, New York and Milwaukee multiple times. At one point, they failed to cover eight straight games. I realize they're 9-1 SU at home, but even so, their scoring average is just +6.5 PPG here. They are 0-5 ATS when playing w/ exactly two days rest. 

Portland lost by only two at Milwaukee last night as they fell apart late. The loss dropped them to 0-7 SU this season when failing to score 100 points, so we clearly know the threshold that we'll need tonight. Cleveland has actually been pretty solid of late defensively, but is tied for 12th in terms of efficiency and had real problems w/ the pace of Washington last week.  I'm actually going to be at this game and while it's never fun having to root for the road team, I see the Blazers staying within the number. 10* Portland

8* Virginia (7:00 ET):  We continue to target the dwindling list of remaining unbeatens in the country (now down to 12 after Villanova lost yday) w/ a play here on the first game of the Jimmy V Classic (takes place at Madison Square Garden). If you haven't been paying attention much this season, then you might be surprised to learn that it is West Virginia, not their counterparts to the East, who comes in w/ the unblemished mark. WVU is both unbeaten straight up (7-0) and against the pointspread (4-0), but tonight marks - by far - their toughest test to date as #10 Virginia has been on a roll ever since suffering their lone defeat, 73-68 at George Washington back on November 16th.  Lay the points in this one.

This shapes up as a fascinating matchup, but it's a bad one for the unbeaten Mountaineers, who feast off turnovers. No team forces more per game (23.4) than WVU, but the problem here is that no team in the country turns it over less than does Virginia (7.4).  I look for the methodical pace at which Tony Bennett's Cavaliers play at to give the Mounties fits all game long.  WVU will not like the pace at which this game is likely to be played.   Note that Virginia is also outstanding at forcing turnovers (21% of opponents' possessions!) and because of the slower pace they operate at, that number might be more impressive than WVU's 31% turnover rate. Bob Huggins' crew has not played a ranked opponent yet, nor have they played a "true" road game.

One thing that present and future Virginia opponents will not want to hear is that the Cavs appear to be much improved on the offensive end of the floor this year. They are averaging 77.1 points per game so far.  Four players are shooting better than 40 percent from three-point range and that may determine the outcome of this game as WVU is allowing just 22 percent shooting from behind the arc so far. Meanwhile, WVU shoots only 28.5% from three-point range itself and that's going to be a major issue here because few, if any, teams in the country defend on the interior quite like Virginia does.  Against teams averaging 77+ PPG, the Cavs are 12-3 SU, 10-4-1 ATS the L3 seasons.  8* Virginia

10* Rhode Island (7:00 ET):  The Rhodies are off a tough, two-point loss to in-state rival Providence their last time out, which was actually one of the better College Basketball games of the season. The game was decided at the buzzer and while the Rams lost, I was still impressed at how they performed in light of the fact that this is a team that lost its best player (E.C. Matthews) for the remainder of the season. Both of the Rams' losses this season have come to ranked opponents (also Maryland). Tonight, they play their third straight home game against a team that comes in unbeaten, but is nowhere close to even being ranked, that being Houston. My strategy of late has been to target this dwindling list of remaining unbeatens (just 12 left after Villanova lost yday) in College Hoops, so lay the points here.

Don't be too impressed by Houston's 5-0 record. They've yet to even leave campus and only two of the opponents were of the lined variety. Six days ago, they beat Murray State by 15 (were -7.5 at the betting window).  It was a pretty ridiculous shooting display from the Cougars as they connected on 64% of their overall attempts (10 for 15 from 3-pt range) en route to 93 points (had 51 by halftime).  Needless to say, I would expect a dropoff tonight.  Again, this is a team that's yet to leave campus this season.  The previous two seasons have seen them go a pathetic 5-18 SU in road/neutral site games.  Besides Murray State, the only other lined opponent the Cougars have faced is Louisiana Monroe.

Meanwhile, Rhode Island has definitely stepped up in class a few times this season and while some of those haven't worked out, I've been impressed nonetheless.  They are allowing just 59.7 PPG and two of their three losses have been by three points or less (both of those at home).  They are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS as a home favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range, so I like the way they've been priced here.  All but one of the Rams' victories this season has been by double digits. With a home game on deck vs. Ben Simmons and LSU, the road team may actually be looking past tonight's opponent, which obviously would be a huge mistake. 10* Rhode Island

10* Buffalo (9:00 ET):  Only 13 unbeaten teams are left in the country (I'm proud to say that I went against Davidson yday and came away w/ an easy win & cover!) and that list is guaranteed to drop by at least one tonight because Oklahoma plays Villanova. I'm staying away from that one, but will continue to target the remaining list as Iowa State is laying a big number to a battle-tested Buffalo team here. While an outright win here is extremely unlikely (Cyclones are 33-2 SU L35 home games), I feel the number is inflated due to ISU's unblemished mark. Note that Buffalo just went into Duke two days ago and (just barely) grabbed the cash as 24.5-pt underdogs. There's been virtually no adjustment by the oddsmakers here, so go ahead and take the points yet again!

Iowa State really hasn't been tested this year.  They've played a few neutral site affairs, but never against an opponent you'd think would give them any kind of real trouble.  They had to scrape by Colorado in the opener, winning only 68-62 as 10.5-pt chalk, but since then have covered all four lined games.  They are off a 20-point win over North Dakota State here in Ames last Tuesday, meaning they've had a lot of time off between games and with a big game on deck (vs. Iowa) three days from now, tonight's game sets up as a proverbial "look ahead." Remember that this is a team that lost it's very good head coach (Fred Hoiberg) to the NBA in the offseason.  There are issues both getting to the free throw line (averaging only 15 attempts per game) and in rebounding (only 8 offensive RPG). Also, the team's best player (Georges Niang) suffered a thigh injury in the last game and won't be 100% tonight.

Something else to keep in mind here is that the final result (83-63) over North Dakota State (NCAA Tournament team LY) was not as lopsided as it may appear. It was only a two-point game w/ 12 minutes to go in the game.  So, while, this isn't the friendliest spot for the underdog by any means, they certainly have great chance at keeping this one close. They too had to replace a high-profile HC in the offseason (Bobby Hurley) after going to the NCAA Tournament. But while they've lost all three road games by double digits, they are 3-0 ATS L3 times taking 12.5 or more points from the oddsmakers and are 5-1 ATS L6 when playing on exactly one day's rest.  10* Buffalo

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  The T'wolves atypical home-road dichotomy continued with Saturday's painful 109-103 loss to Portland. I say "painful" because this young team blew a 17-pt third quarter lead and quite frankly it was a game they "should" have had. (In the interest of full disclosure, I was on them.) But the fourth quarter was "all Blazers" as they shot 67 percent compared to just 32 percent for Minnesota.  While still a perfect 9-0 ATS on the road this season, the T'wolves are a horrible 1-9 ATS at home (2-8 straight up!) and that discrepancy is about to start rectifying itself. Right? Here, we find the team essentially as a Pick 'Em against a Clippers team that is w/o Chris Paul (maybe JJ Redick too) and I'm going to back them. 

These teams already faced off once this year and because the game took place in Los Angeles, we know that Minnesota covered. They lost 107-99, but were getting 10 points from the oddsmakers in that one.  That was the start of the current three-game losing streak for the T'wolves (every loss by single digits).  Not only did Blake Griffin score 26 points for the Clippers in the win, but Paul contributed an additional 20 and Redick had 18. If the latter two don't play, the Clips need to find a way to replace that lost production and I'm not sure how they do that. Nor do I feel that we'll see a repeat of their 52% overall shooting from that game. Meanwhile, Minnesota played that first meeting w/o the services of PG Ricky Rubio. "Any time a starter is out, it's difficult to win," said T'wolves HC Sam Mitchell. Agreed. Starting in Rubio's place was Zach LaVine and he promptly missed his first six shots. 

Incredibly, the Clippers have now beaten the Timberwolves 14 straight times. That's the longest current head to head win streak in the league, save for Atlanta's 15-game run at the expense of Sacramento. Eventually, all streaks must end and in the case of the T'wolves, they have a chance to put that AND their poor record at home "to bed."  Note that the Clippers have played only six road games this season (fewest among Western Conference teams) and won only two of them. They're giving up 108 PPG away from home thus far. 10* Minnesota

8* LA Lakers (7:35 ET):  Kobe Bryant and the Lakers are just terrible. I watched PTI the other day and following Bryant's 31-point effort in Washington (a rare LA win!), they had an honest-to-god debate on whether or not he should actually reconsider his decision to retire. What? This Lakers team is 3-17 straight up and headed "nowhere fast" w/ Bryant shooting a horrific 2 for 15 in last night's blowout (111-91) loss to the Pistons.  Now that I've got that rant out of the way, I'm actually still going to make an argument to take the points w/ the Lakers tonight. First off, it's a big number and a common theme for me is that teams playing the second of B2B road games are typically being undervalued (like Golden State yday!). Secondly, it's unlikely that the Lakers will play THAT poorly again. Thirdly, Toronto is in a letdown spot after coming up short at home against the Warriors Saturday. Take the points.

I was on the Raptors two days ago as they gave the Warriors arguably their biggest scare of the entire season.  After Toronto took the outright lead w/ just over nine minutes to go, the "diff" was never more than three points the rest of the way in an excellent game. Kyle Lowry scored his career-high (41 points) there, but it was not enough.  In my analysis for that game, I mentioned just how prolific the Raptors have been as underdogs this season (now 7-1 ATS), but guess what? That also means they're just 6-6 ATS when favored (7-5 straight up!) and tonight is their "biggest ask" from the oddsmakers, meaning the most points they've had to lay in a game all season. Shockingly, the Raptors are just 4-4 SU at home this season.

As for the Lakers, obviously they're not good. But pride has to kick in at some point and I just don't see them getting blown out in B2B games. These teams did meet earlier this season, in LA, and Toronto won by 11.  So, on the surface, it doesn't look like the Lakers are being tremendously undervalued here, but they are 3-1 ATS playing in the second of B2B's, including an outright win in Washington last Wednesday.  Earlier in the year, they almost beat Orlando (lost by 2) in the exact same situation. 8* LA Lakers

10* Golden State (6:05 ET):  The Warriors improved to 21-0 SU w/ yday's 112-109 win in Toronto, tied for their "closest call" of the season, a game I went against them and easily covered the +7.5 point spread. But while history says they are likely to lose on this seven-game road trip (no team in NBA history has ever swept a road trip of 7+ games), it won't be here. If you're a regular client of mine, then you already know I believe teams playing the second of B2B road games are typically underrated by the oddsmakers and that's what we have here as my own personal power ratings say Golden State should be about a 19.5-pt favorite, despite being on the road, so I'm laying the number here.

Now, Brooklyn did give Golden State a bit of a scare back on November 14th, exactly three weeks ago.  They took them to overtime (only time Warriors have been taken past regulation) and that was in Oakland.  That, along w/ this being the second of B2B road games, has conspired to keep this line much lower than it should be, IMO.  I just went against the Nets Friday night and that was an easy winner as they were blown out by the Knicks, 108-91 as 3.5-point dogs.  They trailed 42-21 after just one quarter, so it was never even really a game. Despite Brooklyn coming in at 10-1 ATS their previous 11, that was what I expected as they are still one of the league's worst teams.  Their -6.8 per game point differential is tied for the third worst in all of basketball (only 76ers and Lakers worse) and quite simply I can't see them playing Golden State tough for a second time.

Of the Warriors' 21 victories, 14 have come by a double digit margin.  Their average per game point differential is a whopping +14.8 and there have been only two instances all year where they won consecutive games by single digits.  Toronto is a very good team (why I took them!). Unlike that spot, where there was a ton of value on the Raptors (were +7.5 vs. +9.5 in Oakland), such value simply does not exist here as Brooklyn was +16.5 for the first matchup.  Golden State is 4-1 ATS playing in the second of back to backs this year & it should be "business as usual" this evening. 10* Golden State

8* North Carolina (6:00 ET):  We're down to only 14 remaining unbeatens in College Basketball and we'll continue to target this dwindling list of teams moving forward. One of the two in action Sunday is Davidson (other is St. Mary's), but Steph Curry's alma mater is a huge underdog as they travel to Chapel Hill to take on a North Carolina team that is now at full strength and that means trouble for the opposition. The Tar Heels treated me well earlier this week in a big-time win over another foe that came in unbeaten, Maryland, winning 89-81. That game marked the return of Marcus Paige, who wound up leading them w/ 20 points. Davidson has not performed well in the past vs. Top 25 opponents, losing 22 of 24 such situations.  Lay the points.

Paige, the co-preseason Player of the Year in the ACC, clearly makes UNC significantly better.  That's a scary thought for the rest of the nation as the Tar Heels opened 5-1 SU w/o him, every win coming by double digits.  Remember that this was the preseason #1 team in the country.  Speaking of double-digit victories, that's the margin Roy Williams' team has won by over Davidson each of the L2 years.  It was an 18-point victory at a neutral site last year and a 12-point win here in Chapel Hill back in 2013. This is the best Tar Heels team the Wildcats will have faced over that span. UNC has topped 80 pts in five of its seven games and their average margin of victory here at home is +18.3 points per game. 

Davidson is coming off a 100+ pt effort against Charlotte in its last game, so they certainly are going to catch a lot of respect from the oddsmakers and bettors alike. However, today represents a huge step up in class from previous opponents.  I understand that the Wildcats are a preposterously good 22-5 ATS their L27 road games, but they are also 3-32 straight up their L35 vs. ACC opponents, including 0-6 the L3 seasons.  While coming in at 5-0 SU, Davidson's first three wins all came by six points or less over the likes of UCF, College of Charleston and Mercer.  Bob McKillop's team isn't very good defensively (174th in efficiency) and Steph Curry will not be walking through that door.  8* North Carolina

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): How interesting that the one favorite I'm going w/ in this 3-game report is Minnesota and it qualifies as the highest rated play of the trio! You want to talk interesting dichotomies?  Well, so far this season, the T'wolves are a perfect 9-0 ATS on the road (6-3 straight up), but only 1-8 ATS (2-7 SU) at home. That's due to even out.  Remember that they finished w/ the worst record in the entire league last year, so it's surprising that tonight will mark the fourth time they've been favored to win this season. The previous three have all been here at home and they've failed to cover all three, but they're undervalued tonight in a rematch of one of the teams that got them, Portland.  Lay the small number.

When Portland came to the Twin Cities back on November 2nd, the T'wolves were actually 2-0 SU/ATS having opened the season w/ B2B road wins over the lowly Lakers and Nuggets. So they were a little bit vulnerable laying points for the first time all season.  It was a close game, 106-101 in favor of the Blazers, and in fact Minnesota actually led the game 34-21 after the first quarter! What you may have forgotten is that was a very emotional game for the T'wolves players as they honored the late Flip Saunders prior to the game. That emotion eventually wore off and Portland took control.  But given the way that game started, Minnesota certainly is capable of beating Portland, who is just 2-7 SU on the road otherwise.

The next time Minnesota was favored to win here at home came against (at the time) winless Philadelphia and a seven-point spot proved to be a little too much in a 100-95 victory. From there, the T'wolves weren't favored again until their last time out when they lost here to Orlando, 96-93 as small 1.5-pt chalk.  There they turned in their worst shooting percentage of the season against an opponent that wasn't Miami (37.7 percent). I'll call for a bounce back here (have had three days off!) and at the same time Portland is due to regress after a surprising 123-111 win over Indiana Thursday night.  They shot 51.8 percent in that game, which was the first time in nearly a month they were over 50%.  It's time for the T'wolves to start winning at home. 10* Minnesota

8* Cleveland (8:05 ET):  When evaluating the Cavaliers, it's important to remember that they remain short-handed w/o Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert.  Yet they are still only percentage points out of first place in the Eastern Conference, a spot they had actually held for much of this season before last night's disappointing overtime loss in New Orleans. After falling behind the Pelicans by as many as 13 in the fourth quarter, Cleveland went on a furious rally. Actually, scratch that. LeBron James went on a furious rally, scoring 21 of his team's 24 points to give them a three-point lead before New Orleans was able to force OT on a last second three-pointer. While "conventional wisdom" will say its tough for the Cavs to "get off the mat" after such a defeat, teams playing in the second of B2B road games are often undervalued and that's what we have here. Take the points.

The Cavs already beat the Heat once this season, in Cleveland, 102-92 as 4.5-pt chalk. At the time, LeBron and company were 3-0 ATS. Now they stand at just 7-12 at the betting window. However, scoring 100+ points against Miami is no small feat. Defensively, the Heat are one of the top teams in the league and only four times since has an opponent topped the century mark against them. Not surprisingly, they've lost three of those, including 105-95 to Boston here at home Monday. They responded by pulling a minor upset of Oklahoma City on national TV Thursday, which I believe has only further served to inflate this line.  Cleveland is right behind OKC in terms of offensive efficiency and I don't think is prone to the same kind of late game breakdowns we saw from the Thunder on Thursday.

Miami, meanwhile, has offensive issues as they've topped 100 pts only two times since doing so twice in the first three games. Those two instances came against the Lakers and Kings, two of the worst defensive teams in the entire league.  Following the high-profile win over the Thunder, I feel a letdown is inevitable for the Heat in this spot as not only are they 3-15 ATS following a SU win as a dog the L3 seasons, but also 0-6 ATS this year following a game vs. a non-conference opponents. The Cavs are 2-0 ATS as underdogs, a role they simply aren't in very often.  Take advantage. 8* Cleveland

8* Toronto (5:05 ET):  Yep, I'm going to do it. "It" being step in front of the Golden State train. As you undoubtedly know, the Warriors come into Saturday a perfect 20-0 straight up (14-6 ATS) and they've made it look easy by outscoring foes by more than 17 points per 100 possessions!  But looking at this seven-game road trip of theirs, you have to look for a potential slip-up as no team in NBA history has ever swept a trip of this length.  Toronto isn't far behind Golden State at 12-7-1 against the spread and despite my personal power ratings saying that GSW should essentially be a double digit favorite in virtually every game, this spot looks to have the most potential for a slip up as it's an unusual 2:05 start time locally for the NBA champs.  Take the points.

Something you may not have noticed is there's a shift taking place in the NBA. No longer is the Western Conference vastly superior to the East. Maybe that's because of what the Warriors are doing to the rest of their brethren, but currently I would rate only three teams from the West in the top ten in the league. Toronto, who stayed within five points in the first meeting back on November 17th, is one of the best opponents GSW has faced all season and curiously the number here is almost as high as it was in Oakland when the Raptors covered (+9.5) in the 115-110 loss. Including that ATS win, the Raptors are a money-making 6-1 vs. the number in the underdog role this season and even more impressive is their perfect 6-0 ATS mark when taking on a team w/ a winning record.  

Now there is the matter of the Raptors being off an ugly outright loss here at home to Denver Thursday night. Perhaps they were looking ahead to this matchup, but the Nuggets (who were +10) came in and pulled a 106-105 upset. As embarrassing as it might have been to lose to a team that came in riding an eight-game losing streak, the key was Denver getting off to a fast start (made 7 of first 9 shots) en route to a 15-4 advantage they'd never relinquish (Toronto did make a furious 4Q rally) and them going a perfect 18 for 18 from the free throw line. I'm not going to even bother running through the Warriors' exploits, because we all know they're impressive, but eventually they have to slip up and I think the likelihood of them doing so here is greater than at any other time so far this season. 8* Toronto

8* South Florida (4:00 ET):  There's somewhat of an interesting coaching connection here as South Florida's Orlando Antigua and South Carolina's Frank Martin are both of Hispanic origin and it was reported that only one time previous in the history of College Basketball has there been an instance of two such coaches matching wits.  Clearly, as of right now, it is Martin who has his team in better shape.  The Gamecocks come into Saturday's home game perfect, both straight up and against the spread.  Meanwhile, USF is a disappointing 2-6 SU (2-2 ATS), but that's where the pointspread comes in and it is generous Saturday afternoon w/ the Bulls taking a ton of points. While Antigua's team has some bad losses on its resume already, the only team to beat them by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here is Kentucky. So they are battle-tested and won't be intimidated by having to play in an SEC gym. Take the points.

Antigua should be very familiar w/ the South Carolina program as he previously served as an assistant under Coach Cal at Kentucky.  So far, it's been a bit of a rocky start in Tampa and the team is off a road loss Thursday to Delaware.  Poor shooting hurt them there, but on the bright side they did show some defensive prowess in holding the Blue Hens to just 30.9 percent from the floor. That was actually the third time in the last four games (UK being the exception) where they held their opponent below 37% for the game. Doing so again here, against what is admittedly a superior opponent, will be critical. Consider that against Kentucky, the Bulls were 22-pt dogs (covered!), so by comparison this number looks inflated.

South Carolina has won every game by double digits so far while typically dominating the boards and playing good defense, which is what you expect from a Frank Martin coached outfit.  But the competition hasn't exactly been stiff.  One could make a pretty compelling argument that the Gamecocks were pretty severely undervalued coming into the Paradise Jam Tournament, which they won, with three consecutive wins as single-digit chalk over Depaul, Hofstra and Tulsa. As a result, the market has now swung too far in the other direction as Monday, they were asked to lay only 18 to Western Carolina. Again, by comparison, this number looks to be inflated. 8* South Florida

10* Wyoming (3:00 ET):  This is a dangerous spot on the road for Cal, as they head to the high elevation of Laramie for what amounts to a Noon PT start time. It's also the Bears' first "true" road game of the season and keep in mind that both of their losses came in the only two games they had to leave campus.  They were favored in each instance as well, just is the case here, losing as 4.5-point chalk to San Diego State and laying six to Richmond in Vegas. Meanwhile, the host Pokes have won all four home games so far (lost twice on the road) and are off their first road victory, beating Denver 68-52 as five-point dogs Wednesday. This is a revenge spot for them as LY they dropped an ugly 45-42 decision (were +4!) in Berkeley. Take the points.

Including this season's results, Wyoming is 47-27 SU since the start of the 2013-14 season. They are 13-21 SU on the road, but an awesome 34-6 SU here at home, which is a pretty strong dichotomy.  Interesting is that never during that time have they been in the +6.5 to +9 range here at the Arena-Auditorium. So either they've fallen off from LY's 25-10 campaign (made the NCAA Tournament) further than I think (not likely) or Cal is being drastically overrated by the oddsmakers here. I'm banking on the latter being true as Cal was ranked as high as 14th before they dropped B2B games. Wyoming dropped only two home games all of last season, both by single digits margins. They are 25-7 SU in the month of December under HC Larry Shyatt.

Cal had defensive issues when they took their act to Vegas and that could be a major problem here today. I say that because Wyoming is averaging  83.5 PPG here in Laramie and has shot better than 50 percent from the floor in four of their first seven games.  The Bears defense was a lot better Tuesday vs. Seattle, but still they failed to cover (as hefty 22.5-pt chalk) in a 66-52 win.  Speaking of low-scoring victories, there was last year's meeting between these two where neither was able to even shoot 37% from the floor (was 16-15 at half!). The Cowboys' defense hasn't been quite as good so far this season, but it should be good enough here. That and the big-time home court edge keep them in this one to the finish.  10* Wyoming

8* UNLV (11:00 ET):  Oregon is the unbeaten team here, but as you know that means it's only a "matter of time" before they get handed their first loss as the number of teams w/o a blemish on their resume continues to dwindle (down to 18 after Kentucky lost last night). The Ducks have yet to leave the friendly confines of Eugene, but that all changes tonight w/ a visit to Vegas to play a UNLV team that finds itself in a number of favorable situations. The Rebels have lost just one time themselves, by two to UCLA in Maui, so it's been an impressive start for them as well, most notably an upset of Indiana (as eight-point dogs) before they left the Island.  While this game doesn't take place in their home arena, that doesn't really take away any value of them still being on The Strip.  Take the points.

I thought that Dave Rice might have his best team in a while this season.  That's why I took UNLV in its season opener and while that didn't pan out (won by only two over Cal Poly), they've looked extremely good ever since. They did cash for me (as 4-pt dogs) in the loss to UCLA and after the upset of Indiana, returned home to blow out Prarie View A&M by a score of 80-62. Four Rebels are scoring in double figures so far and while there were some injury concerns this week, having almost a full week to prepare for this game and get healthy is huge. Ben Carter (Oregon transfer) and Stephen Zimmerman Jr (NBA prospect) now both appear to be fine and even better is the fact that the team is a perfect 6-0 ATS when taking the floor on five or six days' rest the past two seasons. They are also an impressive 13-1 ATS after scoring 80+ points their last game!

Oregon, while unbeaten, has its issues. Namely they turn the ball over roughly 17 times per game, which is one of the highest averages in the entire country. They've also been outrebounded each of the last two games.  Twice in the last three games they've won close as a favorite, home games against Valparaiso and Fresno State. I would argue that tonight is their toughest test of the season, even more so than Baylor, as that game took place in Eugene.  UNLV has topped 80 pts in four games this season as their offense has become far more efficient compared to 2014-15.  They are also more efficient defensively and are forcing turnovers at a very high rate, which is huge here given Oregon's own TO problems. 8* UNLV

10* Missouri (8:00 ET): We're down to 18 teams w/o a loss in College Hoops and undoubtedly one of the weakest is this Northern Illinois team that arrives in Columbia Friday night to take on Mizzou.  With the school's football team competing for a conference championship tonight, NIU hoops figures to have little support here, at the venue or at the betting window. They have played a really weak schedule to this point, including three non-lined opponents in its last four games. So, I would be careful about putting any stock into their numbers so far, particularly a scoring differential of +19.1 points per game. Honestly, I'm surprised the Huskies have even able to navigate such a weak schedule as they are still w/o starting PG Darrell Bowie.  Missouri is more "battle-tested" and I look for them to hand NIU its first loss of the season. Lay the points.

Mizzou is only 3-3 straight up, but has had to step up in competition several times already and that's responsible for those losses (dog in all three). A return home earlier this week led to a much needed 88-78 win over Arkansas State as Kim Anderson's team remained perfect on the season here in Columbia.  The Tigers led the Red Wolves by as many as 24 early in the second half, so that 10-point final margin is even a little bit misleading as it really was a dominant performance from start to finish (13-0 run to open the game). Yes, its a young Tigers team (freshmen responsible for roughly 50% of scoring!), but that's the case w/ the Huskies as well who aren't far behind that number (41.8 percent).

Despite being so young, Missouri is actually improved offensively compared to last season when they didn't even top 80 points once (already done it twice this year). That improvement will come in handy here against a Northern Illinois squad w/ misleading defensive numbers thanks to the aforementioned weak slate of previous opponents. The idea that teams will continue to shoot at only a 36.6 percent clip against NIU seems pretty far fetched to me. Mizzou has shot 49.4% in three home games so far, including 42.6% from three-point range (they also do a good job at getting to the FT line), so I look for them to run the visitors out of the gym here. 10* Missouri

10* New York (7:05 ET):  In this battle for "city supremacy," I feel that one side is being drastically undervalued & that would be the Knicks, who are at home and laying only the standard three. One can only surmise that the reason for that is the Nets' recent surge at the betting window (10-1 ATS L11!), but what's not being taken into account (in my opinion) is their awful road play (1-10 SU).  The Knicks might not be the playoff team that Charles Barkley claimed they'll be, but they are certainly an improved bunch from last year (how could they not be?) and own a far better YTD scoring margin than their counterparts from Brooklyn. This is also a massive revenge spot as they dropped all four meetings LY to the Nets. Lay the points.

The Knicks cashed for me Wednesday night by blowing out a Sixers team that was coming off its first win of the season the night prior. Granted, Philly was w/o the suspended Jahlil Okafor there, but I don't think that mattered much as New York never trailed in the game and entered the fourth quarter w/ a massive 23-point advantage (which is what I expected). It was arguably the Knicks' finest effort since a 122-97 win over Milwaukee in the season opener (another time I was on them!) and also much needed as the team had previously dropped four in a row, SU and ATS.  This Kristaps Porzingis (#4 overall DC) continues to impress as he just turned in his ninth double-double of the season Weds night. Arguably, he's already usurped Carmelo Anthony as the Knicks best player.

As stated before, Brooklyn is just awful out on the road. They are 1-10 SU (but 7-4 ATS) away from the Barclays Center w/ an average scoring differential of -9.5 points per game. The oddsmakers had gotten appropriately generous w/ them following a dreadful 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS start, however, that's clearly not the case here. It would be somewhat unfair to compare the Nets to the Sixers, but Brooklyn still has a bottom five scoring differential in the league and has been favored only one time all season (lost to the Lakers).  They've lost six in a row away from home while allowing 109 PPG, so any past Knicks' offensive issues here at MSG should be rectified. 10* New York

10* Indiana (10:05 ET):  Currently, I have the Pacers rated as the top team in the Eastern Conference (don't think that will last though) as they are coming off a phenomenal November. December got off to a pretty nice start as well as they went into LA and beat the Clippers (who were admittedly w/o Chris Paul) 103-91 as two-point favorites. That puts Indiana at 12-2 SU/ATS since the start of last month and shockingly tonight's opponent (Portland) is getting the same amount of respect a better Clippers team did last night. The only two times Indiana has failed to cover during this streak came when laying big numbers, the two biggest lines they've faced all season in fact. That's not a concern here. 

While Indiana has been surging, Portland has been fading. The Blazers have dropped 10 of 13 overall and I went against them Tuesday night as they blew a second half lead and lost in overtime (here at home) to Dallas as a small favorite. I've previously spoken at length regarding the amount of talent this team lost from last year (four starters!), most notably LaMarcus Aldridge. That puts an undue burden on lone returning starter Damian Lillard as well as the reserves to contribute. Well, Lillard scored 25 points to go along w/ 10 assists and eight rebounds against the Mavs while the bench contributed a season-high 73 points and that still wasn't enough. What now? The pressure placed on Lillard has been felt most at "crunch time" as he is shooting a woeful 26 percent from the floor in the fourth quarter this season. 

After missing the playoffs entirely last season, the Pacers came into 2015-16 w/ high hopes and Paul George (missed almost all of LY due to injury) back in the fold. Things got off to a rocky 0-3 SU/ATS start, but since that time they have posted a per game scoring differential of +10.6, which is second in the league only to (obviously) Golden State. If you're a regular client of mine, then you know I believe teams playing in the second of B2B road games are often undervalued and that is the case here as there can be no doubt as to who the better team is in this particular matchup. Lay the short number. 10* Indiana

8* Over Thunder/Heat (7:05 ET):  This is a bit of an interesting call for me as it's certainly not based on recent or YTD results.  Miami has actually been the top Under team in the league to this point (3-13-1), though they did actually go Over their last time out (in a 105-95 home loss to Boston). With so few Overs on their resume, however, there hasn't been a single time that the Heat have gone Over in B2B games. This is somewhat of a "high" total for them, although the last time we saw a 200+ pt total for them (vs. Sacramento), the game did fly Over. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has gone Under in each of its last four games. Both meetings between these two last season stayed Under as well, but I'll call for a different result tonight. Take the Over.

While this total might be considered "high" for Miami, it's actually pretty low for OKC.  In fact, it's currently the second lowest total for any Thunder game all season. Yes, they have gone Under in four straight games, but they have scored 100+ all four times and only a blowout victory over Detroit (103-87) would have stayed Under this number. Over the L5 games, the Thunder have averaged 108.2 PPG.  They average a whopping 113.1 PPG on the road and remember that this is the second most efficient offense in the league right now (behind Golden State, obviously) averaging 107.3 points per 100 possessions. There have been just two games all season where the Thunder haven't scored at least 98 points. That's even including all the time Kevin Durant missed. 

Miami is obviously one of the top defensive teams in the league. They have topped 100 pts just twice since the 1st of November, not a good sign here, but relief comes in the form of the fact the Thunder are allowing 109.7 PPG on the road this season!  Thus far, the Heat haven't taken on many teams like OKC, who are prolific offensively, but struggle defensively.  The most efficient offense they've faced this season was Cleveland (#3) and they gave up 102 points in that game. Also, the team's defense has been slipping of late w/ 100+ pts allowed in two of the last three games as well as four of the last seven. Incredibly, the Thunder attempted only 23 free throws TOTAL in the two games vs. Miami last season.  That number will go up here as should bench scoring (season-low 19 pts Monday).  8* Over Thunder/Heat

10* James Madison (7:00 ET):  Western Michigan is the underdog here and all things considered they've been doing a pretty decent job of competing throughout the early part of the schedule. The Broncos lost projected leading scorer Connar Tava, a senior, to a broken foot right before the season began. Not only did Tava lead the team in scoring last year, he led in rebounding and assists.  So, he's a critical loss.  The Broncos have managed to "tread water," going 3-4 SU overall by alternating wins and losses (or rather, losses & wins). They are off a three-point loss Sunday (to Mercer) in a neutral site affair where they allowed 52.2 percent shooting. While WMU has yet to drop B2B games this season, I believe that comes to an end tonight as they visit a James Madison squad that's overdue for a big night at home.

The favored Dukes come in off B2B road wins over Marshall and Radford.  They are now a perfect 3-0 SU in "true" road games, having opened the season w/ an 87-75 outright win (as 9-pt pups) at Richmond.  However, "life on the homefront" hasn't gone nearly as well. All three lined home games have resulted in non-covers, dropping them to 5-18 ATS the L3 seasons here at the Convocation Center. Two of those non-covers this season have actually been outright losses, to Oral Roberts and Tenn Martin, as seven and 11 pt favorites respectively. However, they have a great opportunity to rectify that poor record as their next seven games are all at home.  While it ended up being a close call Monday vs. Radford, note that JMU actually led by as many as 21 points in the second half.  That followed a similarly dominant performance on the road as the Dukes dominated Marshall, leading by 23 at halftime.

Can that level of play continue here at home? Of course, it can. The Dukes have had no problem scoring this year (78.5 PPG), but the key moving forward lies on the defensive end of the floor, particularly guarding the three-point line. In four home games, opponents have shot 43.5% from behind the arc against JMU, which seems like an unsustainable percentage. Just about every Western Michigan game has been close this year, but they are 0-2 SU in "true" road games and I believe "due" to get blown out.  The loss of Tava will eventually catch up w/ the Broncos, who have a negative assist to turnover ratio this season and trailed the entire way vs. Mercer after falling into an early 24-9 hole.  10* James Madison

8* Gonzaga (11:00 ET):  You'll have to stay up late to watch this one, but I'm confident that tonight will see Washington State lose for the first time. Only 24 teams in the country are still w/o a loss as Wazzu is likely one of the weakest as the Cougars have played just four games, none of which have come against any team of consequence. Now, in comes #13 Gonzaga, who is coming off B2B tough games against ranked opponents. They split the pair, losing to Texas A&M (by one point) and then beating UConn (by three) in the Bahamas. This is a drop in class for the Bulldogs, who are surprisingly just 4-13 ATS in head to head meetings w/ Wash St, including 1-7 here in Pullman. But that's because they've previously faced spreads much larger than this one.  With the SU result a mere formality in my book, I'll lay the points.

As is always the case, many are calling this one of Mark Few's "best teams ever" in Spokane. I'm not sure about that, but the Zags did hold an impressive 16-point lead at halftime against UConn (led by as many as 21 in the second half) before foul trouble took Domantas Sabonis out of the game and allowed UConn to stage a late rally. Foul trouble was again an issue for Sabonis (eventually fouled out) in the loss to A&M, a game Gonzaga still led much of the way. That game was largely determined at the free throw line w/ the Aggies making 11 of 14 and the 'Zags only 4 of 11.  Even w/ this being the first "true" road game of the season, I expect the foul issue to be less of a factor tonight.

To this point, Washington State has taken on: Northern Arizona, Idaho State, CS-Los Angeles and Texas Southern.  So, yes, I'd say this is a large step up in class for them. CS-Los Angeles is a Division II team while the other three are a combined 5-12 straight up this year. Taking on Top 25 opponents did not go well for the Cougs last season as they lost all four games by an average of nearly 18 points per game. That includes a loss to Gonzaga, 81-66 in Spokane as lofty 22.5 pt dogs.   Though 2-0 ATS against Few's team the L2 seasons, Wazzu has actually lost those games by a combined 31 points!  It should be more of the same this year.  8* Gonzaga

8* San Antonio (8:35 ET):  Like the Sixers in another game in this report, the Spurs find themselves in a somewhat unique situation. Only in their case, it's off a loss as they surprisingly fell at Chicago on Monday, 92-89 as four-point favorites. It was the first time all season that Greg Popovich's team lost a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 points. The problem was that they shot only 41.1 percent from the field themselves, one of their lowest percentages in a game all season.  Fortunately, however, tonight they welcome in a Milwaukee team that is one of the worst in the league defensively. The Bucks are 28th in defensive efficiency and allow 105.7 PPG. That simply won't cut it against the best defensive team in the league. Lay the big number.

Here at home, San Antonio is allowing just 85.2 points per game, which is just tremendous. Again, only three teams have scored more than 100 against them this year and all of those games resulted in losses and came on the road.  The 92 points allowed in Chicago Monday night was actually the most they've given up over the L6 games!  Losses have been few and far between for the Spurs this season, but when they're off one, you want to back them the next time out. I say that because they've gone 3-0 SU/ATS in that role w/ every single victory coming by double digits. I was on them the last time when they beat Memphis 92-82.  Their average margin of victory here at home is 14.4 PPG, quite impressive, and they haven't lost a regular season game here since falling to Cleveland last March. Milwaukee has not won a visit to the Alamo since 2008.

While the Spurs are off a rare loss, the Bucks are actually off a win, but the L3 times they've found themselves in this role, they've gotten destroyed. They've lost SU/ATS all three times, all by double digits and by an average of nearly 19 PPG!  While off - easily - their best defensive effort of the year, a 92-74 home win over Denver, the Bucks simply aren't too likely to match that performance on that end of the floor tonight. Over the L3 seasons, the team is 4-17 ATS after allowing 85 pts or less in its previous game.  8* San Antonio

8* New York (7:35 ET):  Philadelphia finds itself in an unusual spot this evening as they are actually coming off a SU win! Last night, at home, saw them defeat the Lakers 103-91 as two-point favorites for their first win of the season. That's right, an 0-18 SU team was actually favored to win, which should tell you all you need to know about the sorry state of the Lakers right now.  Believe it or not, but the Sixers have actually been quite competitive of late, holding a fourth quarter lead in five of the last six games while going a perfect 6-0 against the spread. They are on the road, without rest, which usually signals some value but tonight I do not believe they'll be able to sustain success against a rested and improved Knicks squad.

New York is trending in the wrong direction right now w/ four consecutive SU and ATS losses. Their last came Sunday, here at home vs. Houston, 116-111 in overtime as four-point dogs. Note that Carmelo Anthony missed that game due to a strep throat and is listed as questionable for tonight.  I'm taking a flier here that he will play (pick still stands even if he doesn't!), which would be awesome as he leads the team in scoring w/ a 22.1 PPG average. (Latest reports are that Anthony IS expected to play). But of course, there is the league's top rookie, Kristaps Porzingis, who has eight double-doubles already this season and comes in averaging 17 points and 11.6 rebounds his L5 games. It's surprising to me that the Knicks are only 3-6 SU/ATS at home this season as they are definitely much improved from last year's disastrous campaign. 

Even off a win and factoring in recent "competitiveness," the Sixers should still be a double digit dog here in my estimation.  Need I remind you that this team is still last in the league in offensive efficiency (by 5 PPG per 100 possessions!) and overall scoring differential (-10.8 points per game). On a recently completed six-game road swing, they were a DD dog five times. I just think that for a young team such as this, there's going to be an inevitable letdown following a win. The team went just 7-11 ATS last season off a SU win and won B2B games just four times. Lay the points.  8* New York

10* Phoenix (7:35 ET):  This is a situation we've been cleaning up in all season, that being a team getting points in the second of B2B road games. Monday, it was Boston cashing for us and last night saw Dallas do the same. Tonight, it's Phoenix, off a narrow (three-point) loss in Brooklyn last night and taking points in Detroit.  The Suns have been setting lately w/ a 1-5 SU/ATS record their L6 games, including some losses on the road to bad teams. But they did win at Toronto Sunday and I think a bounce back is in the cards tonight. Detroit, off just its second win in its last six games, isn't a great candidate to be laying points as they're only 3-5 SU/ATS in that role this season and 29-40 ATS as chalk the L3 seasons. Take the points.

Phoenix, meanwhile, has been a GREAT road team through the years. They are 55-32 ATS away from home the L3 seasons despite last night's loss. Note that after trailing the Nets by double digits in the first half, the Suns actually rallied back to take the lead themselves in the fourth quarter, holding a nine-point advantage at one time!  This is actually a revenge spot for them as they lost outright to the Pistons as four-point chalk back on November 6th, but at the time Detroit was playing much better. In fact, after following that win up w/ another (over Portland) in their next game, the Pistons have gone just 4-8 SU/ATS. In that first meeting, the Suns shot only 40.2 percent from the field, a number which they almost certainly will improve upon this evening. 

Detroit, meanwhile, ranks near the bottom of the league in shooting percentage (41.5%) and offensive efficiency. So, I wouldn't put a ton of stock into the fact they just scored 116 points on a season-best 52.9 percent shooting Sunday against the Rockets, who are one of the worst defensive teams in the league.  In three of its previous four games, Detroit failed to score even 90 points. Those offensive woes have obviously contributed to their issues when favored and I think it's more of the same here against an undervalued opponent.  10* Phoenix

10* Butler (7:00 ET):  It's time to start targeting some of these remaining unbeatens in College Basketball as there's only 24 left after three teams that entered last night w/o a blemish on their respective resumes went down. Tonight, I'm looking at Cincinnati, who I think finds itself in a less favorable spot compared to visiting Butler despite this being the latter's first "true" road game this season. I say that because the Bulldogs have had to play only once (Saturday) since suffering their first & only loss (to Miami) on November 22nd. Meanwhile, the Bearcats are coming off three games in four days (last one Saturday) as they won the Barclays Center Classic. I have these teams rated basically even, so even after factoring in home court, the value is still on the dog.  Take the points.

Cincinnati is 7-0 SU, but each of its last two wins, over Nebraska and George Washington, were close. Saturday saw them rally back from a halftime deficit to defeat GW.  Incredibly, the Colonials attempted only FOUR free throws for the entire game! Granted, hot three-point shooting (in the first half) was what kept them in the game. But it was similarly close win for Cincy the previous day against Nebraska (65-61 as 12.5-pt chalk).  Defensively, the Bearcats are 4th nationally in PPG allowed (54.6), but I worry about their offense, which has failed to top 65 pts in three consecutive games, especially w/ Octavius Ellis battling back issues.  That makes taking the points all the more attractive here in what shapes up as the Bearcats' toughest test to date.

Butler has not had many offensive issues this year as they come in ranked 4th nationally in points per game at 95.0. Granted, that has a lot to do w/ a monster 144-point effort against The Citadel in the season opener.  But they shot 56.6 percent from the floor in Saturday's win over SIU-Edwardsville and the fewest points they've scored in any game this season is 74. A real key for the Bulldogs is that they take great care of the basketball, averaging just 9.8 turnovers per game.  Keep an eye on Kellen Dunham, who projects to be one of the best players in the Big East this season. Butler is 7-3 ATS its L10 road games vs. a team w/ a winning record. 10* Butler

8* Dallas (10:05 ET): We're likely to get a change of favorite here despite the fact that the Mavericks lost last night in Sacramento (really let me down!). Perhaps bettors are catching on to "my" strategy of teams playing the second of B2B road games consistently being undervalued (won w/ Boston in that spot last night).  Despite last night's loss, that appears to be the case again tonight as Portland just isn't very good (had to replace FOUR starters from LY's team, including LaMarcus Aldridge). The Blazers also played last night, and lost, 102-87 at the Clippers as seven-point dogs. While the home team captured all four meetings between these two last season, this is a much different Portland team and I'm on the visitors here.

Prior to last night's 15-point loss, Portland had won three of five straight up while going 4-1 ATS.  But two of the wins and covers came the expense of the sorry Lakers. Before that "mini-streak," the team had dropped seven in a row.  Like I said earlier, it's going to be a clear step back for this team this season due to the large turnover in personnel. Tonight, things go from "bad to worse" as their lone returning starter from LY (Damian Lillard) is likely to miss this game due to an undisclosed illness. He left last night's game w/ an upset stomach relatively early (played just 17 minutes) and from that point it was all Clippers, who outscored the Blazers by 15 in the second half - identical to the final margin. Things could have been even worse for Portland last night had DeAndre Jordan not missed 22 of 34 free throws!

Dallas was actually up at the half last night in Sacramento (58-54).  But when they returned from the break, things began to fall apart, especially in the third quarter when they were held to just 13 points. That was a far cry from the third quarter in their previous game when they held Denver to just five points! Giving up 36 pts in the fourth quarter to the Kings certainly didn't help matters either.  The team was just 9 for 37 from three-point range last night w/ Dirk Nowitzki going 0 for 4 and Wes Matthews going 2 for 8.  So far, Dallas is 3-1 straight up in the second night of back to backs while Portland is 1-3 SU/ATS.  8* Dallas

8* North Carolina (9:30 ET):  There's only 27 remaining unbeatens in College Hoops following Fresno State's loss last night.  One of them is Maryland, who embarks on - by far - its toughest test to date tonight at North Carolina as a part of the annual Big 10/ACC Challenge. These two programs are obviously no strangers to one another as they are former conference rivals (Maryland in the ACC).  Believe it or not, but the Big 10 has owned this event recently as the ACC has not won it since 2008 after previously never losing one! Because they are undefeated, I feel the underdog Terps come in overvalued as I don't see the Tar Heels losing in Chapel Hill.  This is Maryland's first "true" road game of the season. Lay the points.

UNC already has played a "true" road game and that accounted for the team's only loss, 71-67 at Northern Iowa where they were 6.5-point favorites.  Overall, the Tar Heels have failed to cover four straight, which has clearly contributed to them being undervalued tonight. They are off B2B double digit wins (by 11 and 10 pts), however, over Northwestern and Kansas State in Kansas City as part of the CBE Hall of Fame Classic. Remember that this was the preseason #1 team in the country as they returned nine of their top 10 scorers from a year ago. One of those is senior guard Marcus Paige, projected to be the team's leading scorer. Due to a broken hand, Paige has yet to play this season, but good news Tar Heels fans (and readers here!) - Paige is making his season debut tonight & will start.

Maryland has experienced a great deal of good fortune since making the jump to the Big 10 last season. Most notably, they have gone 13-1 SU in games decided by five points or less.  That includes a 75-71 win over Georgetown earlier this season. Like UNC, the Terrapins have had their issues covering the spread (1-4 ATS L5), including their last time out as they failed as 22-point chalk against a bad Cleveland State team, winning only 80-63. The Terps led by only four at the break in that one. They have not won in Chapel Hill since 2008, including a 12-pt loss here their last year in the ACC, which dropped them to 4-11 SU, 5-10 ATS their previous 15 visits. This is one of the cheapest prices we will get on UNC at home all year. 8* North Carolina

10* Cleveland (7:05 ET):  Home teams cleaned up last night in NBA, going 6-1 against the spread and here we have the Cavs, who are unbeaten this season at Quicken Loans Arena (9-0 SU w/ avg MOV by 8.5 PPG).  LeBron and company will have to top that average margin of victory tonight as they welcome in Washington, but fortunately for both their & our cause here, the Wizards have routinely been getting blown out when leaving D.C.  The Wiz have dropped four of their previous five road games w/ every loss coming by double digits. Overall, they've lost four in a row. Cleveland has lost only four times this season and while it was a bit of a rough November at the betting window, they should have no problem winning by double digits here.  Lay the points. 

As I've stated previously, Washington came into the season promising to push the pace. They have, but the change in strategy has not let to better results.  The team is currently two games below .500 and being outscored by nearly six points per game, one of the worst scoring differentials in the entire league. They'd lost three in a row by an average of 21 PPG, all against lesser competition than what they'll face here, before dropping a game to Toronto by a deuce on Saturday. Defensively, they've been a disaster, giving up an Eastern Conference high 105.1 PPG. Offensively, things have been no better as the team has shot below 36% in three consecutive games (< 33% L2 games!). Right now, I'm not sure this is even a playoff team in an improved East.

Meanwhile, to no one's surprise, Cleveland is pacing the Eastern Conference w/ a 13-4 SU record. They did have more trouble than expected here at home vs. Brooklyn Saturday night, winning only 90-88 as LeBron won the game on a hook shot in the final seconds, but it was their second straight strong performance on the defensive end and offensively they are top three in the league in terms of efficiency. Washington has been held to an average of 82.3 PPG its last three contests and is unlikely to keep pace w/ a Cavaliers squad averaging 106.2 PPG here at home.  10* Cleveland

10* St. Joseph's (7:00 ET): With Fresno State losing last night, that leaves only 27 teams w/o a loss this season.  One of them is Villanova, who as previously noted I've targeted as a 'play against' team this season. Not that I don't have respect for Jay Wright's Wildcats, who went 33-3 straight up a year ago and really dominated the Big East.  But, my "issue" with them is an ATS record that has reached an unsustainable level (51-21 L2 seasons!). I've lost a couple of times going against them this season as they were able to rattle off runs of 22-0 and 24-0 in the first halves. But on Thanksgiving, I notched a nice cover at their expense, taking the points w/ Stanford. Now we're getting 'Nova playing their first "true" road game of the season & I'll take the points here w/ cross-town rival St. Joe's.

After failing to cover on Turkey Day vs. Stanford, Villanova (who won the game 59-45) went on to win the NIT Championship by blowing out Georgia Tech, 69-52 as 11-point chalk. The Wildcats have now won every game by double digits, the closest margin being 14 points. But during the course of the NIT, we did see their scoring average dip down to 64 points per game (in the two neutral site games), which will make it more difficult to consistently cover spreads such as this one. A major key for them so far has been their opponents shooting very poorly from three-point range. Stanford and Georgia Tech combined to shoot only 17.4 percent from behind the arc, which is obviously just awful. Yes, we need to credit the Nova defense, but at the same time, teams should be shooting better than that even against a good defense.

St. Joe's should be rested and ready for this all-Philly matchup as they haven't taken the court in over a week (November 22nd). They won their last game, 66-64 over Old Dominion, as a 1-point dog in a Holiday Tournament of their own (Naismith Classic). That was a nice bounce back from their first loss of the year, 74-63 to Florida the previous day. The underdog Hawks match up nicely here as they too have been outstanding at guarding the three-point line and have some nice size as well (10 blocks last game!). After losing to Villanova the L2 years (by an average of 29 PPG!), this is a massive revenge spot. 10* St. Josephs

8* Dallas (10:05 ET): The Mavericks got back on track Saturday night w/ a 92-81 win in Denver and given that they've now covered eight of their last 10 games overall, this seems like a really low number to be laying against a bad Sacramento team that very well could be w/o its best player (DeMarcus Cousins) yet again tonight. The Mavs took all three matchups with the Kings last season, two of them here in California's capital city. Surprisingly, Sacramento had been 5-0-1 ATS since the start of the 2013-14 season vs. Dallas, but that was before they got hammered here at Sleep Train Arena, 101-78 as three-point dogs, back in February. Off B2B double digit losses, I don't see the Kings getting back on track here.

Defensively, Sacramento has major issues (why I also like the Over here!). They've allowed 118+ points in three of their last four games and while the last one came against unbeaten Golden State, the other two were games vs. Charlotte and Milwaukee.  They also lost by 10 to Minnesota (as three-point chalk) here at home on Friday. Despite the reasonable amount of ATS success vs. the Mavs the previous two seasons, that has not translated into wins for the Kings as they have lost six straight times to them as well as 21 of the last 23 meetings. With the line so low for tonight, you have to assume that SU winner = ATS winner. 

As I said at the open, the Mavs snapped a three-game losing streak (played Memphis, OKC and San Antonio) w/ a 92-81 win over Denver on Saturday.  It was the defense stepping up there (will talk more about that in the analysis for the Over), but tonight I feel its the offense "due to break out" as this is the first time all season that they've gone three straight games w/o scoring 100 points.  It's been established just how poor Sacramento is defensively (allow a league-high 109.1 PPG!), so I look for that little streak to come to an end here. Pertinent is the fact that Dallas is 9-2-1 against the spread the L3 seasons as a road favorite of three points or less, winning all but one of those games outright. Again, it's highly unlikely that the pointspread comes into play here, so all we need is a SU win. 8* Dallas

8* Over Mavericks/Kings (10:05 ET): Given that I've already talked about this matchup rather extensively, I'll keep this portion of the analysis relatively "short and sweet" as I also like this game to go Over the total.  Dallas' last two games were very low-scoring, so you might be surprised to see an O/U line this high. Don't be.  Those last two games saw them play San Antonio (top defensive team in the league) and then Denver, who scored only five (!) points in a decisive third quarter Saturday night. Sacramento has been the worst defensive team in the league this year (allow 109.1 PPG), so this number isn't very high for them at all as their average O/U line is 210 points anyway.  Note that Dallas did allow more than 50+ points in the first half to the Nuggets before the record-setting third quarter.  While the status of Boogie Cousins (27.9 points per game) is irrelevant to my play on the side (Kings are 1-7 SU w/o him this year), it would help the Over's cause if he were to be on the floor tonight. Regardless, Sacramento won't be as bad offensively as Denver was Saturday in Dallas and they are due to improve upon their lousy 39.0% overall shooting from the Golden State game Saturday night. 8* Over Mavericks/Kings

10* San Antonio (8:05 ET):  Even though they're the road team here, I don't think that the Spurs are getting nearly enough respect tonight in Chicago. This is a squad that's lost just three times all season, all on the road, but otherwise they've allowed 100+ in just one other game. The results is that Greg Popovich's team is the best defensively in the entire league, giving up just 89.7 points per game, and that should serve them well here against a Bulls team that ranks near the bottom of the barrel in terms of offensive efficiency. The change at head coach from Tom Thibodeau to Fred Hoiberg was supposed to lead to an "uptick" in offense in the Windy City, but they average only 97.3 points per 100 possessions and it's an ugly list looking at those below them.  Lay the points here.

Since their last loss (in New Orleans on November 20th), the Spurs have won five in a row (granted, four at home) and allowed a minuscule average of just 83.4 PPG in the process!  The consistency has been remarkable as no opponent during that time has topped 90 points!  Points should again be at a premium here w/ the Under being a perfect 6 for 6 this season in Bulls' home games.  Typically, you'd think that would favor the team getting points, but Chicago is just 1-5 ATS at the United Center and I wonder where their points will even come from. This is the first game back following a four-game road trip that ended w/ a 104-92 loss in Indiana on Friday as the Bulls shot below 40 percent for a third consecutive contest. Normally, I might call for some "good ol'" progression to the mean, but this is not the opponent for that. 

San Antonio has held six of its last nine opponents to 84 pts or less, which is downright incredible.  That makes them a tough matchup for anyone (even Golden State!), but particularly the Bulls, who were an atrocious 21 of 66 on two-point field goal attempts Friday.  Keep mind that that the Spurs just held Atlanta, a team that came in averaging 106.4 points its previous five games, to only 88.  That improved them to 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS vs. the Eastern Conference this season and the bottom line is that the Bulls are a pretty mediocre bunch right now.  10* San Antonio

8* North Texas (8:00 ET): One of the worst football seasons in school history was just completed at North Texas, but for the Denton faithful, at least there's hoops. Monday sees the Mean Green traveling to Cedar Falls to take on a Northern Iowa team that IMO is going to be overvalued for a while due to an upset of then #1 North Carolina back on November 21st as 6.5 pt home pups (won 71-67). Since that time, the Panthers have won twice, 83-63 over Dubuque (who?) and 97-51 (7th largest margin of victory in program history) at North Dakota. But the UNT team they welcome in Monday will be one in a surly mood considering it just suffered three painful home losses in three days last week.  Take the points in this one.

Yes, you read that correctly. In a three-day span, North Texas lost three times on its home floor, in an event that was dubbed "The Mean Green Challenge."  While it ended up being not much of a "challenge" for opponents, note that two of the losses suffered came by exactly two points and the third saw Troy get ridiculously hot from the field in the second half as in 55 points while making 17 of their final 25 shots.  Even w/ the step up in class here, North Texas should not expect to be victimized by such red-hot shooting. They actually led that game at the half Wednesday and in the previous two games they had a potential GW three-pointer waved off (too late) and another go against them.  I fully expect we'll get this team's best shot on the road Monday and they are 16-8 ATS L24 away games, including 6-2 ATS when taking 12.5 or more points.

Northern Iowa played over the weekend while North Texas did not, so that's an edge for the underdog right there.  While the Panthers need to get their "just due" for what they did against North Carolina, the two games before that are more pertinent than the last two, IMO.  Those first two contests of the season saw them lose outright (as 7.5-pt chalk) to Colorado State and then beat Stephen F. Austin by only 10.  The Panthers shot the ball at over a 58% clip their last two games and that number almost certainly comes down tonight. I also can't see UNT shooting only 29.7 percent from the floor like North Dakota did on Saturday. Laying this many points while playing for a second time in three days catches up with the big favorite.  8* North Texas

8* Boston (7:35 ET):  I like to make the case that NBA teams playing the second of back to back games are often undervalued, especially when out on the road. That's the case here and w/ Boston we're getting a few extra points "thanks" to the fact that they lost yday in Orlando, 110-91.  Keep in mind though that when this team wins, it usually does so in blowout fashion as all but one of the Celtics' nine victories this season have been by 13 or more points! (Ironically, the exception came against winless Philadelphia!) While I'm not going so far as to call for an outright victory here, the points do seem generous in a matchup of two teams I have rated as essentially even.  Take the points.

Points are likely to be at a premium in this one as Miami has gone Under in 13 of its last 14 games. In two of the last three games, they've given up only 78 points, but take note that both of those were against the Knicks. The Heat's own offense has had its issues this season as they come in averaging just 96.3 points per game, so they're hardly a great candidate to be laying points right now. As chalk, they're only 6-6 ATS this season w/ three outright losses. They've shot just 42.6% from the field the L5 games and Boston will be the best offensive foe they've taken on in some time. Over the last eight games, the Heat have played just one opponent ranked in the top half of the league in offensive efficiency and that game was against Sacramento, the lone Over for them since the season opener. 

There was some surliness and general discontent from Celtics' players (Jae Crowder in particular) following yday's loss to Orlando.  Look for this bit of news to drive the line up even further.  The key for Boston here is to hold Miami under 100 points as they have yet to win a single game (0-7 SU) when allowing triple digits.  That shouldn't be too much a problem here as the Heat come in averaging just 96.3 PPG. Also, the Celtics should see a reasonable improvement in their overall shooting from Sunday, particularly from distance as they were just 5 for 27 versus the Magic. Also, when you talk defense, be sure to take note that the C's force 19.5 turnovers per game, most in the league. 8* Boston

10* UT Arlington (6:00 ET):  What do the Mavericks have to do to get some respect around here?  After beating BOTH Ohio State and Memphis outright, on the road, they destroyed Grambling 73-40 on Wednesday. For those "keeping score at home," that's a 33-point win (no line) after covering the spread by a combined 39 points the previous two games.  The opponent here, Rice, is stronger than Grambling (few aren't!), but a definite huge drop in class from Memphis and Ohio State.  This isn't the first time I've stepped out against Rice; I did so back on November 16th when they got blown out 80-54 at San Francisco. They've won B2B games after an 0-4 start, but still give up 83.5 PPG and are w/o projected leading scorer Marcus Jackson.

Neither upset from UT Arlington was fluky in the least.  Against Ohio State, they took the lead for good early in the second half and went up by as many as nine. They were even more impressive at Memphis, jumping out to a double-digit lead at halftime. While they did relinquish the lead momentarily in the 2H, it was impressive that they were able to go up by that much despite shooting just 33.3% for the game. In fact, the Mavericks have been below 38 percent from the field for four straight games. The fact that they have been so successful during that time, while shooting that poorly, is pretty impressive. The key, as you might expect, has been their defense. Neither Memphis nor Grambling has been able to shoot better than 30 percent against them.  

Rice has not been nearly as stout defensively.  In fact, their first four opponents all shot better than 50 percent from the field. The fewest points they've allowed in a game this season is 77 and keep in mind that the Owls have played a schedule far weaker to date than has UT Arlington. Injuries have taken an early season toll as two projected starters were not in the lineup at the start of the season. The most notable was the one to Jackson, a junior that started all but one game last season.  UT-Arlington is 19-13 ATS on the road the L3 seasons and giving up almost 20 PPG fewer.  10* UT Arlington

10* Arizona (5:00 ET):  I realize that the 11th ranked Wildcats are off a loss here (to Providence), but this looks like a very short number for them to lay here against a team they've already beaten this year. Granted, the first meeting vs. Boise State came in Tucson and they may be w/o Kaleb Tarczewski here in Anaheim, but they should still have enough horses to get by the Broncos yet again.  They were in position to beat Providence on Friday, but allowed the Friars to go on a 10-2 run to close the game, resulting in a 69-65 final. Because they were playing on B2B days, Tarczewski could not play on an ankle he injured in Thursday's OT win over Santa Clara. Having had Saturday off, there's a greater chance he'll play here, but with or without him, they are the play here.

It's a little rare to see two teams play each other twice this early in the campaign, but not unprecedented. While Boise State did cover back on November 19th, it was by just one-half point as 12.5-pt dogs. The linesmakers aren't being nearly as generous here, obviously, on a neutral court.  That first meting saw Arizona shoot 54.2 percent from the field, a number they have been unable to match in any of the L3 games. It was a close game for much of the second half, until 'Zona went on a run late. It also helped that BSU only shot 35.7% from the field after halftime. Neither team's leading scorer shot well and I expect the Wildcats' Ryan Anderson to bounce back Sunday as he's coming off a game where he had 27 points and 12 rebounds. 

Even w/o Tarczweski, the Wildcats still had the rebouding edge Friday, by a wide margin (43-22), but w/ the exception of second chance points, they struggled to score in the paint.  The team has failed to cover four in a row, so that's played a major role in this line being smaller than what it should be. Meanwhile, Boise State has covered its last four games, but is off a loss as well as Michigan State beat them 77-67 on Friday.  Again, that was a half-point cover for the Broncos, who struggled to rebound in the contest.  Arizona has won 36 of its last 40 non-conference games, so the bounce back is likely here. 10* Arizona

8* Charlotte (2:05 ET): There isn't too much turnover on a year-to-year basis when it comes to NBA playoff teams, but it certainly appears as if we may be "swapping out" Milwaukee for Charlotte in the Eastern Conference this season. These teams appear to be trending in very different directions so far as the Bucks have been one of the league's real disappointments at 6-10 SU while being outscored by a ghastly 8.2 points per game. Only two teams in the league have a worse YTD point differential on a per game basis and Bucks' fans will be unhappy to learn that those two are the Lakers & 76ers. This is a clear, but somewhat predictable, step back for a team that improved its win total by 26 games the year prior and covered over 55% of its games.

Meanwhile, Charlotte seems to be trending in the other direction. Though off a hard-fought loss to Cleveland, the Hornets had won four in a row prior to that and this will be their sixth straight time playing at home, so the schedule sets up well for them. (That is, until they have to host Golden State this week).  But what really makes this a bad matchup for Milwaukee is the fact the Hornets are the fifth most efficient offense in the league right now, averaging 104.5 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks, defensively, are the least efficient team in the league as they allow 109.5 points per 100 possessions. That's a full point per 100 possessions more than the next worst team and what's really frightening is that it's nearly six points more than what winless Philadelphia allows. 

Charlotte can still hold its head high even after a 95-90 loss to Cleveland Friday where they faltered down the stretch. The team scored 14 points in the fourth quarter (fewest in any 4Q this season) and shot just 5 for 25 from three-point range for the game, also a season worst. They should bounce back offensively here against a Bucks team that in its last four road games has allowed 119.2 PPG on 54 percent shooting overall, including 47.6 percent from three-point range. The Bucks have been blown out w/ tremendous regularity this season; their last five losses have all come by double digits, including a 24-pt loss at Orlando on Friday.  8* Charlotte

10* New Orleans (9:05 ET): Frequently, I mention how teams that find themselves playing in the second night of a back to back can be undervalued, particularly when they're the road team. We have an instance of that tonight in Utah as New Orleans, who was blown out last night by the Clippers, comes to town. Of interest to me is that this line opened at -6, but due to the Pelicans' Anthony Davis suffering an injury, it has moved nearly a full three points as of this morning.  While the loss of Davis is potentially huge for the Pelicans moving forward, I feel that the oddmakers have overreacted in this instance as the Jazz are a low-scoring team that probably shouldn't be laying this big of a number.  Take the points.

This has been a very disappointing season to say the least for New Orleans.  Last night's loss dropped them to 4-12 SU on the year and even w/ the Western Conference as a whole not being as strong this year, it's going to take one hell of a run for them to get back into playoff contention.  Defensively is where they've really struggled, giving up an average of 109.4 points per game, most in the league. Last night marked the third straight game giving up more than that average, something they were able to get away with when they had Davis and were able to sweep a home and home vs. Phoenix. But possibly playing w/o their superstar, defense will need to become a priority. Note that New Orleans had covered four in a row prior to last night's loss.

Utah got off to a pretty solid start this season, but their issue lies on the offensive end where they average only 95.1 PPG, which has them ahead of only winless Philadelphia league-wide. Therefore, they are not a good candidate to lay this many points with, even though defensively they allow just 93.6 PPG, good for third in the league.  They've scored 100+ pts in only two games all season.  There are injuries on the Jazz front as well as neither Rodney Hood nor Trey Burke are 100 percent. Before beating the Clippers on Wednesday, the Jazz had dropped five of seven.  I expect the Pelicans to hang around here, even w/o Davis, and to cover the number. 10* New Orleans

8* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET):  The Thunder came up just a bucket shy of covering the number for me Wednesday night against the Nets (won by 11, laying -12.5), dropping to 1-6 ATS overall the L7 games.  But, for tonight, the number is more manageable and I'll call for them to blow out Detroit.  As you know, Kevin Durant is back in the fold and that makes OKC one of the very best teams in the league. Offensively, only the Warriors can claim to be better than the Thunder, who come into tonight averaging a whopping 109.8 points per game and they are 2nd in the league in efficiency. Detroit, off a rare 100+ point outburst in its last game, simply cannot match that kind of production w/ its roster, so I'll lay the points here.

The Pistons had dropped six of eight overall before pulling off a surprise upset of Miami Wednesday night. I know that the oddsmakers had them favored, but to me that was a surprise, especially the margin they won by.  Two nights after being blown out in Milwaukee, Detroit responded by beating the Heat 104-81, just the second time since November 8th that they topped 100 pts in a game.  However, I'm anticipating a massive dropoff in offensive production tonight.  The Pistons were 16 of 31 from three-point range against the Heat, a real shocker considering Miami is one of the best defensive teams in the league, but for the season they are just 31.1 percent from behind the arc.  Stan Van Gundy also gets the fewest points per game in the league from his bench. Wednesday also marked a season-best effort on the defensive end in terms of points allowed. Here, they are facing a far more offensively prolific foe.

Oklahoma City has scored 110+ points ten times this season. They are 7-3 SU w/ Durant in the lineup (3-3 w/o him) and despite them having struggled against the Eastern Conference (0-4 ATS) thus far, I see this shaping up to be an easy win.  They have won B2B games by double digits, including a blowout of a pretty good Utah team (111-89), on the road. That was Durant's return and in the two games since he's been back, he's averaged 28.5 PPG. My own power ratings say the spread here should be double digits. 8* Oklahoma City

8* Ohio State (7:30 ET):  Perhaps, before the game, these two coaching staffs can exchange thoughts on what it was like to be upset by TX-Arlington. The Mavericks first got Ohio State, in Columbus, exactly one week ago in 73-68 victory as 18.5-point dogs. Then, on Monday, they went to Memphis and beat the Tigers outright, 68-64 as 12.5-pt dogs (I was on that one!). Now, as we move to a neutral site (Miami, FL) both teams are desperate for a win in this Hall of Fame Challenge. Both squads check in at a disappointing 2-2 SU as Ohio State lost again Tuesday at home to Louisiana Tech. Memphis had lost earlier in the year, at home, to Oklahoma.  As I discussed in my analysis of TX-Arlington-Memphis, however, I'm really down on the Tigers under HC Josh Pastner and the immediate future is not looking good. Take OSU.

It hasn't been the best week in Columbus as both the football and basketball programs likely envisioned themselves being undefeated on Thanksgiving Day. In the case of Thad Matta's troops, they are young (seven freshmen!). But that still doesn't excuse B2B non-conference home losses, especially considering the Buckeyes had previously won 151 straight non-conference home games!  They actually never even led Louisiana Tech on Tuesday. The issue was guarding the three-point line as the Bulldogs went 10 of 25 from behind the arc. But the good news here is that Ohio State probably doesn't have to worry about a performance like that from Memphis, who so far is shooting a woeful 21.4% from three-point range.

Free-throw shooting, of all things, played a decisive role in OSU's loss to UT-Arlington. The Buckeyes were an awful 48 percent (13 for 27) from the charity stripe in that game while the Mavericks were an uncharacteristic 19 of 22 (68 percent first two games). As for Memphis, they were just flat out beaten up by the Mavs, who only shot 33% from the floor, yet still led comfortably the entire game (by 10 at half)! That's not a good sign for the Tigers and in my previous analysis I'd mentioned how Pastner has already had seven players transfer out of the program during his watch. I believe the Buckeyes are better suited to bounce back in this spot. Lay the short number. 8* Ohio State

8* Stanford (4:30 ET):  Well, I'm stepping out against Villanova yet again. Jay Wright's Wildcats are now an astounding 50-20 ATS since the start of the 2013-14 season and my feeling is that astounding record of success at the betting window HAS to start regressing sooner rather than later, right?  Twice previously I've stepped out against this team and paid for it. One was w/ Nebraska (+18), who lost 87-63. The next time was w/ a high-scoring East Tennessee State squad, who was getting 24.5 from the oddsmakers, but even that wasn't enough as they fell 86-51. In both instances, 'Nova was able to go on a massive first half run, 22-0 and 24-0, that essentially put the game out of reach before halftime.  But here, we're getting the Wildcats outside of Philly for the first time and that makes taking the points attractive.

Underdog Stanford is 2-2 SU, but 0-3 ATS and off B2B SU losses.  After B2B 93-pt efforts to open the season (against WI-Green Bay & Charleston Southern), the Cardinal fell at home to SMU (ranked team) by 15 (as 5.5-pt dogs).  Last time out wasn't any better as they lost by 17 at St. Mary's as a 3.5-pt dog.  This is a program that has won the NIT twice in the L4 years, plus made a run to the Sweet 16 in 2014, but they did lose three starters from LY that combined to average nearly 50 points per game. Defense, or rather lack of it, has been the issue during the two-game losing streak as their last two opponents have combined to shoot a ridiculous 56 percent from the field against them.  HC Johnny Dawkins called Sunday's loss to St. Mary's (where the team was outscored 45-24 after halftime) "as bad as I've ever seen us defensively." Improvement HAS to be expected. Note this game is at MSG, where Stanford has captured its two NIT Championships.

While Stanford's defense can only get better, Villanova probably can't get any better - on either end of the court! So far, they've outscored their four opponents by an average of 28.7 PPG, holding them to just 33.1 percent shooting overall! Stanford, for as much trouble as they've had the L2 games on the defensive end, is shooting above 50% for the year. Villanova too endured heavy losses from LY's team (three starters) and again, no team can continue to cover games at the rate they've been. I could keep going on, but really this is all about one team's ATS record being due to regress to the mean.  8* Stanford

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  Monday saw the T'wolves avoid the embarrassment of becoming the first team to lose to Philadelphia this season as a late fourth quarter rally gave them a 100-95 win here at home.  Unfortunately for myself and anyone else who might have had Minny, they didn't cover and that dropped them to 0-7 against the spread so far this season at the Target Center.  But it's "high time" that this team, who is much improved from last year, punches a winning ticket in the Twin Cities and I say tonight against unrested Atlanta is the spot. Normally, a team might be slightly undervalued playing in the 2nd night of a back to back, but not the Hawks here as they are off a 121-97 beatdown of Boston last night.  Take the points.

Minnesota actually hadn't even won a game straight up on its home floor this season until it beat the 76ers Monday. But they are a relatively surprising 6-8 SU for the year (16-66 SU last year) due to strong play on the road. It's quite odd to see a team w/ the kind of home-road dichotomy, especially one this young. A quick check of the stats reveals that defense has been the primary issue at home as the T'wolves are giving up an average of 105.7 points per game here. They could probably use an improvement in three-point shooting (30.7% overall) as well.  The good news is that when on a one-game winning streak, the team is a perfect 3-0 ATS this year! That includes an outright win at Atlanta (where they led by as many as 30 points!), so the underdog should not be intimidated here.

Atlanta comes into this game banged up as Kent Bazemore is still out and center Tiago Splitter may not play either.  Of course, PG Jeff Teague has been in and out of the lineup recently as well. Prior to last night's big win at home, the Hawks had failed to cover six of their previous seven contests. Duplicating Tuesday's ridiculously hot shooting (56.2% overall) is highly unlikely here, out on the road.  Minnesota's defense has gotten better its last two games (95.5 PPG allowed) and my own personal power ratings have this game as a pick 'em, indicating that taking any points is a luxury.  10* Minnesota

8* Oklahoma City (8:35 ET):  Kevin Durant is back and so too are the Thunder, who blew out a good Utah team on the road in KD's return Monday night, 111-89 as 2.5-pt dogs. Things should be considerably easier for OKC this evening as they welcome in a terrible Brooklyn team that rates as the third worst in the entire league despite a recent stretch where they've covered six of seven games. The Nets might be 3-1 ATS as double digit dogs so far this season, including taking Golden State to overtime, but they've also been beaten by double digits five different times this season and four of those have been out on the road.  Oklahoma City had failed to cover five in a row before Durant's return, but should cover easily here w/ him back tonight.

What made Monday's offensive output all the more impressive for OKC is that it came against a foe that was among the league-leaders, allowing only 92.3 PPG.  Brooklyn is not noted for any kind of defensive prowess; in fact they allow 105.6 PPG on the road and are 25th in terms of efficiency. It took their best shooting performance of the season (50.6 percent) to upend Boston (second game of a home & home) Sunday and in the two games prior, the Nets allowed an average of 118 PPG.  The Celtics shot 58.6% against them in the first game of the home and home.  Considering that the Thunder average an impressive 109.8 PPG (2nd most in the league, trailing only Golden State), I see them having no trouble scoring tonight.

The offensive numbers get even more impressive w/ Durant in the lineup as the team is averaging 114.3 PPG, which is right on par w/ the Warriors. They are #2 in offensive efficiency (again GSW #1) league-wide. Durant is shooting a career best 52.4 percent from the floor this season en route to a 28.0 PPG scoring average. With both he and Russell Westbrook on the floor, the team averages a phenomenal 117.5 points per 100 possessions.  Brooklyn had not won a game when allowing 100+ prior to Sunday and considering what they're likely to give up here, I see this one ending in a massive blowout for the home team. My own power ratings indicate that this number should be closer to -18! 8* Oklahoma City

10* Duke (7:00 ET): Coach K & the Blue Devils return to Cameron Indoor tonight w/ little money in their pockets. Well, Coach K's wallet is probably "fat enough," but this isn't intended to be a critique of the NCAA. Rather, my intention is to point out how Duke has yet to cover a single spread this season. They did just win the 2K Classic in Madison Square Garden, beating VCU and Georgetown, but those victories came by a combined 10 points and they faced a five-point deficit at halftime vs. the Hoyas on Sunday. Still though, the B2B wins were a nice way to bounce back from last Tuesday's loss to Kentucky and now the Devils return home where they consistently win in blowout fashion. It's shocking to me that Yale is getting this much respect from the oddsmakers.  Lay the points.

Duke won its first two games of the season here at home by a total of 56 points over Siena and Bryant.  Obviously, the level of competition can be called into question there, but what can't is the program's 25-1 SU record as a home favorite of 12.5+ points the L3 seasons. In the -12.5 to -15 point range, they are on a 40-2 SU run here at home, going 25-16-1 ATS in those games (4-1 ATS L5). In all due respect to Yale, this is a pretty extreme drop in class from last week's slate of opponents as well. The win over G'town was actually more impressive than the final score shows as the Hoyas shot nearly 55 percent from the field and dominated in points in the paint. I wouldn't count on Yale owning such edges here. Duke has won 118 straight non-conference games at home, by the way.

Now, Yale did just take SMU (a ranked team) down to the wire, losing only 71-69 as 13.5-pt dogs. But as noted before, this is still a step up in class and thus despite the ATS win, the Bulldogs should not be getting the same amount of respect from the oddsmakers here. They are now just 4-45 SU as a road dog of 12.5 pts or more and playing their third consecutive road game in less than a week has to be taxing, even this early in the season. I imagine Duke scoring early and often in this one as SMU was able to shoot 50 percent against Yale on Sunday. The Blue Devils are 7-2 ATS after allowing 80+ points the previous game. 10* Duke

8* Golden State (10:35 ET):  This sets up to be the blowout of the year so far in NBA as you have the #1 ranked team in offensive efficiency against the team ranked 28th in defensive efficiency. I should not have to clarify "which is which." The Warriors, going for a NBA record 16-0 start to the season, should obviously be highly motivated tonight. They are already outscoring foes by 14.4 points per game this year and tonight face an opponent that is being outscored by 7.2 PPG (Western Conference worst). Not only are the Lakers awful defensively, but because of Kobe Bryant's woeful shooting, they are just as awful offensively. As a team, they are shooting 41.6 percent from the floor. I don't recommend laying a number this big very often (if ever!), but this should be a huge blowout.

Though that per game point differential is quite impressive for the Warriors (was +10.1 PPG last year), I was kind of shocked to learn that they have just TWO wins by 20 or more points all year. One was against Houston in the second game, the other was a 50-point blowout of Memphis that can obviously severely skew numbers w/ the sample size still being relatively small. However, as alluded to earlier, this will arguably their weakest opponent to date. They did host Brooklyn  10 days ago and were taken into overtime, but that was a Sunday evening affair that likely did not have their attention. With the national spotlight on here (TNT game) and a record at stake, we should be getting Golden State at its collective best and that's a level that no other team in the league can come close to matching right now. 

At the other end of the spectrum is the 2-11 Lakers.  They are 1-21 SU "all-time" (meaning as far as my database goes back!) as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points, so let's concede the straight up result here right off the bat. LA has been a double-digit dog twice this year, to Miami and Phoenix, and failed to cover both times. They've lost three in a row, all by double digits, the last coming by 14 at home to a subpar Portland team that is dealing w/ replacing four starters from LY's squad.  This team is going nowhere fast as long as Kobe and his 33.3 shooting percentage continue to dominate the basketball.  8* Golden State

10* Under Pacers/Wizards (7:05 ET):  Owed in large part to playing at a much faster pace, Washington is the top Over team in the league this season at 7-2-1. However, their last game (97-95 at Detroit) stayed Under the total and the good news here is that their defense, which was nothing short of atrocious in the early going, has improved somewhat dramatically the L3 games. They held only one opponent below 99 points in their first seven games (Orlando to 87 in the season opener), but have now done so in B2B games including a season-best effort last Wednesday vs. Milwaukee (86 pts allowed). Now, in comes Indiana, who has allowed 85.5 PPG in its last two contests including their own blowout of the Bucks. The total seems too high here, particularly from the Pacers' perspective. Take the Under.

While Washington plays at the fastest pace among all Eastern Conference teams (101.9 possessions per game), Indiana is somewhat middle of the road. Their key to success lies on the defensive end as they currently rank third (only Miami and San Antonio better) in the entire league in terms of efficiency, holding opponents to just 95.7 points per 100 possessions. After opening the year a disappointing 0-3 straight up, the Pacers have allowed 100+ pts in a game only twice and the most they've given up is 103. The end result has been a 9-1 ATS run (8-2 SU) where in half the games, the opponent has been held under 90 points. The O/U line for tonight looks like it will close as the 2nd highest for any Indiana game this season, the highest being a matchup w/ Boston (207.0) on November 4th that ended up staying Under rather easily (100-98 final).

At the same time, Indiana has exploded for 235 combined pts its last two games. Look for that kind of production to curtail rather dramatically moving forward. The two teams the Pacers just blew out - Philadelphia & Milwaukee - rank 24th and 29th in defensive efficiency, respectively.  Washington may not be dramatically better (19th), but as mentioned above, there has been tremendous improvement on that end of the floor recently.  Both teams' benches have also been contributing a lot of late and I would expect that production to decrease in the short-term as well. While all four matchups between these two last year went Over, the highest O/U for any of those matchups was 193 pts. 10* Under Pacers/Wizards

8* Rhode Island (6:00 ET): The season got off to a somewhat inauspicious start for URI when projected leading scorer E.C. Matthews suffered a season-ending knee injury in the first half of the season opener. Playing w/o him for the first time, the Rams lost by three at home (as 1.5 pt favorites) to a pretty good Valparaiso team. It's not as if they played poorly though; they led at the half and it was a one-point game in the final 20 seconds. Missed free throws (correctable!) were actually the story as the Rams were 13 of 24 from the line while the Crusaders were 11 of 13. There was also an uncharacteristically poor defense effort from Rhode Island in the second half as they allowed Valpo to score 40 pts. That's almost the number they've allowed in their other two games!

The good news here is that URI bounced back Saturday w/ a dominating effort as they trounced Cleveland State 73-45 as 13-point chalk.  Now, the team moves on to Cancun to play TCU, a team coming off a 76-67 loss to South Dakota State - at home! As just referenced above, the Rams' defense has been mostly incredible this season.  They held Cleveland State (admittedly not a very good team) to just 27.3% shooting for the game (while shooting 63.4% themselves!). It was a wire to wire win w/ a 20-point halftime lead. In three of six halves this season, the Rams have given up fewer than 20 points. Opponents are shooting just 34.2 percent against them through three games, including 19.6% from three-point range. Turning up the defense is a great way to nullify the loss of your leading scorer. 

As for TCU, they did score 90 pts in B2B wins to open the season, but both games were against grossly overmatched foes. Saturday vs. South Dakota State (first D-I opponent), they shot only 33.3 percent from the floor and trailed by as many as 22 on their home floor. After falling behind 12-11 roughly seven minutes into the game, the Horned Frogs would never taste the lead again. Yes, they'd previously won 20 straight non-conference games, but the list of opponents there is not strong. Also, TCU is also down a couple of key players, including projected leading rebounder Kenrich Williams (for the season). Forward Chris Washburn is also out 2-4 wks w/ a finger injury.  I look for the favorite to roll in this one, thanks to its tremendous defense. 8* Rhode Island

8* UNLV (11:30 ET):  The Runnin' Rebels are unbeaten (3-0) and taking points Monday vs. UCLA (neutral site game), which is curious as I have them rated as the better team. The favored Bruins' season got off to quite the ominous start w/ an 84-81 home loss to Monmouth (as 15-point chalk).  This game takes place out on the Island, as part of the annual Maui Invitational and I expect the dog to be the far more inspired side as its a chance from the team from the Mountain West to knock off a team from the more heralded Pac 12. After surviving a scare from Cal Poly in the season opener (won 74-72 after leading by as many as 13), UNLV blew out B2B overmatched opponents in Vegas and should be ready to roll here. Take the points.

After scoring 80 points or more in their previous game, the Rebels are 11-1 against the spread the previous three seasons. That record improved w/ an 84-64 win over Southern Utah last week, which followed a 107-45 cakewalk over New Mexico Highlands (who?!) two days prior. After making 13 three-pointers against that cupcake, the Rebs were just 5 of 20 from distance against SUU, but better than 50 percent on two-point field goals. Patrick McCaw continues to carry the offensive load w/ 50 points in three games (24 vs. Southern Utah) and just wait until this Stephen Zimmerman, Jr (NBA prospect!) comes around.  The 7' freshman was a Top 50 recruit and now a projected lottery pick. He too has scored in double figures every game and more importantly is averaging 9.7 rebounds per game.

Meanwhile, the UCLA program is trending down. They too barely got by Cal Poly (despite shooting 50 percent from the field) and then turned in their best effort of the season, Thursday vs. Pepperdine, in a 81-67 win and cover. But that loss to Monmouth is indicative of where this team is at right now. Yes, the Bruins have held double digit leads in the second half of every game. But they don't play very good defense and you really don't hear about Steve Alford's team being a contender in the Pac 12 Conference. 8* UNLV

10* Phoenix (8:35 ET): I often argue that teams playing in the second night of a back to back, on the road, are typically undervalued.  Such is the case here w/ a Suns team that will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing performance last night in New Orleans where they lost 122-116 to the now 3-11 Pelicans. They'll certainly need a better defensive performance than that tonight as the visit a San Antonio team that leads the entire NBA in terms of defensive efficiency.  I was on the Spurs Saturday night in their 10-point victory over struggling Memphis, but I have the Suns currently rated higher than the Grizzlies and think this is an excellent opportunity to take the points. 

Lost in all the talk of Golden State's near record setting start is the fact that only five Western Conference teams currently find themselves above .500!  One is obviously San Antonio, but another is Phoenix, who is outscoring opponents by nearly four points per game this season, good for the fourth best per game differential in the Conference, trailing only the three "heavyweights" (Warriors, Spurs, Thunder). Since I successfully played against the Suns in their season opener (lost 111-95 at home to Dallas), they've been blown out only one time the rest of the season and that was in Oklahoma City back on November 8th.  That loss also marked the only time this season that the Suns have dropped B2B games.  

San Antonio also lost to New Orleans recently (Friday), but I came back w/ them the following night here at home and they took care of business against Memphis. While the Spurs' defensive numbers are very impressive (just 85.3 PPG allowed at home!), those will be put to the test tonight by a Phoenix offense that has now scored 230 points its last two games and plays at league's fastest pace (yes, even faster than Golden State).  LaMarcus Aldridge is currently listed as questionable for tonight's game (keep an eye on status) and despite being unbeaten at home, the best team that the Spurs have beaten here, by record, is 7-6 Charlotte. Phoenix has consistently been undervalued as an underdog (46-32 ATS) and on the road (54-30 ATS) the L3 seasons.  10* Phoenix

10* UT-Arlington (8:30 ET): The underdog Mavericks certainly won't be intimidated tonight at the FedEx Forum in Memphis considering they are coming off a 73-68 upset of Ohio State (what an awful week in Columbus!). This team is a lethal 37-19 ATS as an underdog, including 20-11 ATS the L3 seasons. It wasn't exactly a "lucky" win Friday in Columbus either; UT-Arlington took the lead early in the second half and never gave it back, going up by as many as nine points.  While some might want to point toward the inevitable "letdown" spot here, I'm not buying it as this is a national TV game as well. I also place a tremendous importance on that Ohio State result as I have the Buckeyes rated as a significantly better squad compared to tonight's opponent, Memphis.  Take the points.

Both of Memphis' lined games thus far have seen the ATS result come down to the wire. They missed out on the cover by a single point in the opener, a 67-49 victory over Southern Miss.  Then, the Tigers failed as four-point home dogs to Oklahoma, losing 84-78. Two days later, they bounced back w/ an easy 83-65 win over Grambling (no line), but I think there are clear signs that this program is regressing under Josh Pastner, who had the unenviable task of following the legendary John Calipari here. Pastner has been unable to reel in the kind of talent that Coach Cal could with ease and the most damning number for him is "7" as is the number of players that have transferred out under his watch. 

Note that Memphis led Grambling by only four points at the half on Thursday.  The Tigers ended up shooting 48.1 percent for the game, easily their season-high, but that was to be expected against such a weak opponent. In their first two games, they were below 40 percent and that's troubling when being asked to lay this kind of weight.  They are a disastrous 22.2 percent from three-point range through three games. UT-Arlington has also struggled to shoot the ball this year (37.4 percent overall), but it didn't cost them in one hostile environment and any kind of improvement tonight should lead them to easily stay within the generous number.  10* TX-Arlington

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Laying this many points w/ the young T'wolves might seem a bit "dicey," not to mention "pricey," especially considering a poor 0-6 ATS home record to this point (7-0 ATS on the road!). But, the opponent is Philadelphia, who is now 0-14 SU and coming off a crushing loss Saturday in Miami where they blew a double digit lead. Any time you can get away w/ laying single digits against the Sixers, you ought to probably go for it as they are being outscored by a whopping 14.1 points per game.  Minnesota has slowed down dramatically (lost 6 of 7) after a surprisingly strong start, but should get back on track here.

Philadelphia won only 18 games last season. Two of them were at the expense of the Timberwolves and that ended up being the difference between these two in the standings as it was Minnesota finishing w/ the league's worst record (16-66 SU).  However, with B2B #1 overall draft picks on their roster (Andrew Wiggins, Karl Anthony-Towns), there is no denying that the T'wolves are improved this year. Yes, it's just the second time they've been favored this season and likely the most points they'll be asked to lay in a game all season. But this is a team that has managed to beat Chicago, Atlanta and Miami, all on the road, by nine or more points. After scoring only 86 points in a loss to Detroit on Friday, I anticipate a bounce back offensively for the T'wolves tonight. 

That bounce back starts w/ Kevin Martin now in the starting lineup.  A more natural boost should be expected here as well considering the team missed 10 of 13 three-point attempts vs. Detroit and was only 17 of 25 from the free throw line. Defensive improvement should also be expected as Philly is - by far - the worst offensive team in the league, averaging only 90.1 points per game on 41 percent shooting. Saturday's 91-point effort was actually the Sixers' highest output in the L6 games and it came on just 37.5% shooting.  I don't see them responding well to blowing what was, easily, their best opportunity to pick up a win all season and consider that there have been only three times this season that they have finished the game inside a 7-pt margin! Lay the points. 8* Minnesota

8* Miami (7:35 ET):  The Knicks are a surprising 8-6 SU and have covered 7 in a row (!) after Saturday's road win at Houston, 107-102.  Though the Rockets are probably the biggest disappointment in the league thus far, it was an impressive win nonetheless considering the fact the Knicks were playing the second game of a back to back, on the road. They are now a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games this season, including an outright win at Oklahoma City (no Durant) to start the current trip. But this is now their third road game in four nights and the toughest test to date as the Heat are playing for the seventh consecutive time at home and should be more than ready. Miami is 6-1 ATS the L7 meetings w/ New York. Lay the points.

I anticipate the Heat to come out strong here as we saw them fall behind winless Philadelphia their last time out and it took a huge finish to the game to avoid what would have been a very embarrassing loss.  They actually trailed Philly by as many 17 in the first half, which would be the Sixers' biggest lead in any game all season, and were still down by double digits midway through the fourth quarter. Then, their Eastern Conference leading defense (92.9 PPG allowed) kicked in and allowed just four points over the games' final seven minutes.  Defensively, it was a nice return to form after allowing 100+ pts in B2B games, something they'd previously done just one time all season. I see Miami limiting New York's three-point shooting, something that has been preposterously good (55.3 percent!), tonight. 

The Knicks' surprising amount of success in the early part of the season has obviously influenced this line and the result is an undervalued favorite.  My own personal power ratings suggest this line should be closer to -7. Again, the Knicks have covered seven straight overall and are 7-0 ATS on the road, streaks that are "due" to be broken.  With Miami 0-4 ATS its L4 overall, it does appear that we have reached the proverbial "tipping point" with these two teams. I keep coming back to the Heat's defense because it is #2 in the league in terms of efficiency (94.8 points per 100 possessions), about six points per game fewer than the Knicks. 8* Miami

10* Butler (7:30 ET): This is the Championship Game in the Puerto Rico tip-off. One thing these teams have in common is an ability to score.  Since opening their season by "doubling up" The Citadel, 144-71, Butler has beaten both Missouri State (93-59) and Temple (74-69) to get here.  Miami FL has gone over 90 points in three consecutive contests, including wins over Mississippi State (105-79) and Utah (90-66) here in Puerto Rico.  The Hurricanes were only a 1.5-pt favorite in their blowout win Frday (24 point margin!), so the market is high on them right now while at the same time possibly underrating the underdog Bulldogs, who failed to cover the number in the win over Temple. That makes this an excellent situation to take the points, in my opinion, and that's what I'm doing.

Butler actually trailed Temple by as many as 10 points Friday and shot a season-worst 36.4 percent from the field, including 5 of 21 from three-point range.  But four players still scored in double figures, including both members of the starting backcourt, and the team's defense ended up being the story. They held the Owls to just 38 percent and Chris Holtmann's team turned the ball over just five times. I fully anticipate the shooting to improve here, not just because of the fact the Bulldogs shot 62.2 percent from the field in their first two games, but also due to the fact Miami actually allowed Utah to shoot 50 percent its last time out.  Due in large part to those two great NCAA Tournament runs, Butler is 64-31 ATS at a neutral court setting.

Defense will also be a major story in determining the victor here and in that department, I give a big edge to Butler. Yes, Miami has been impressive offensively these first four games, but Butler is holding teams to just 32.8% overall shooting (22.8 percent from three-point range). I'm surprised that for a second straight game "The U" is a slight favorite to defeat a ranked opponent.  Through 3-0 ATS laying points this season, the Canes are just 16-22 ATS in that role the last two-plus seasons.  Butler has the third best assist to turnover ratio in the entire country. The better team is the one getting points here. 10* Butler

8* Boston (6:05 ET):  The Celtics are tied w/ Cleveland for the best point differential in the Eastern Conference right now at +7.2 per game, but unlike LeBron and the Cavaliers, Boston is typically not asked to lay a big number at the betting window. That consistently makes them a pretty solid value and sure enough they've covered six of their last eight, including a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road. All seven of the Celtics' wins this season have been by 13 points or greater, including Friday's beatdown of Brooklyn (120-95), which I was on, and now for the second game of the home and home set, the favorite again comes in being underrated. Six of the Nets losses this season have come by double digits.  Lay the points.

Friday's win by Boston saw them outscore Brooklyn 43-23 in the second quarter and for all intents and purposes, the game was over at that point. The Celtics shot a blistering 58.6 percent from the field, obviously a season-high for a game this season, compared to just 39.3 percent for the Nets. Anyone banking on the "revenge angle" needs to know that Boston has been a fantastic team on the road the L3 seasons (53-35 ATS) including an average margin of victory of 13.2 PPG this year.  This team has scored 100+ in each of its last five games. Brooklyn, meanwhile, has hit triple digits only four times all season.  There won't be any Marcus Smart tonight for the Celtics (bruised right knee), but Boston is deep enough and Brooklyn a weak enough opponent, for that not to really matter.  

So much of what I said in Friday's analysis still applies here.  The fast pace at which the Celtics play should continue to give the Nets all sorts of trouble. Boston forced 20 turnovers Friday and scored 20 points in transition. They continue to be near the top of the league in both categories. In terms of defensive efficiency, the Celtics are third in the league, giving up exactly 11 points fewer per 100 possessions compared to Brooklyn, who ranks 27th. This isn't nearly enough points for the underdog Nets, who have just two wins to their credit and they came at the expense of Houston (already fired its coach) and Atlanta (by two points). The Celtics have taken four of five meetings from the Nets since the start of last season, three of those wins coming by double digits. 8* Boston

8* San Antonio (8:35 ET): Both the Spurs and Grizzlies played last night. San Antonio lost, 104-90 in a real shocker to New Orleans. Memphis won, in blowout fashion, over Houston. What those results have done for tonight, however, is cause the line to be significantly lower than it should be. Prior to last night, the Spurs had lost just one time since Opening Night and that came at the buzzer in Washington. Off their previous two losses this year, they have won by an average margin of 23.5 points per game (27 and 20 pts). The Grizzlies, while they have won four straight, still have a bad point differential (-5.0 PPG) despite now having a winning overall record. They've been blown out numerous times already (five double digit losses). Lay the points.

In all three of its losses this year, San Antonio has allowed 100+ points. They've allowed 100+ in only one of their wins. So, that's probably the key right there. Fortunately, Memphis comes in averaging just 95.8 PPG. They've been better of late (103.4 L5 games), but don't expect that here against a Spurs' defense which is permitting just 86 PPG here at home. All of San Antonio's losses this year have also come out on the road. Here at home, they are outscoring opponents, on average, by 16 points per game. It is a little concerning that LaMarcus Aldridge may not play here, but then again Memphis could be w/o Zach Randolph, so that would be a wash.  The Grizz are just 8-36 SU all-time here in the Alamo, including 1-3 both SU/ATS their last four visits.

Breaking down Memphis' current four-game win streak, they've found themselves in some pretty advantageous spots.  Last night's opponent, Houston, is a total mess. They also beat Oklahoma City w/o Kevin Durant. Portland and Minnesota aren't exactly contenders right now. As I've said before this year, it's a bit concerning that in three games this year against Cleveland and Golden State, the Grizz have lost by a combined 96 points. Mario Chalmers' arrival has coincided w/ the Grizzlies turnaround, but I don't see that lasting. Not only is San Antonio 24-14 ATS when coming off a SU loss as a favorite, but they are 25-15 ATS in the second of back to backs. 8* San Antonio