10* Sacramento (9:10 ET): These teams are meeting for the second time in three days. While Denver ended up “running away” with a 128-110 victory on Thursday, its second double digit win over Sacramento this season, the game was actually much closer most of the way. The Kings’ deficit was only five points entering the 4Q and that’s despite poor shooting from three-point range (ended up 9 of 29). I anticipate the Kings will shoot better tonight and thus taking the points is the move here. 

Now is also probably a great time to fade the Nuggets as they are a season-best nine games above .500. The goal for them is obviously to finish in the top six of the Western Conference, which they probably will, but this is a lot of points to lay for a team that has twice won by a single point during its current four-game win streak. The Nuggets also shot 55.8% from the floor on Thursday, which I cannot seem them duplicating tonight. They are just 15-20 ATS as a favorite in 2021-22. 

The Kings radically changed their roster at the trade deadline as they are desperate to end the league’s longest playoff drought (2006). Entering Saturday, they are 3.5 games out of the final play-in spot as they’ve dropped three in a row going back to before the All-Star Break. It feels like this five-game road trip is going to be a “tipping point” either way for their season. I just don’t seem them losing big again, and honestly an outright win seems more likely in this situation. They are 5-1 ATS the L6 times they’ve been off a double digit loss at home. 10* Sacramento

8* Creighton (8:30 ET): You know the drill with this Providence team. The Friars’ incredible run of luck is bordering on being downright preposterous at this point. After coming back from a 19-point deficit (in the second half!) to beat Butler last Sunday, Providence won in triple overtime against Xavier on Wednesday. Three of their last four wins have required OT and they are also 10-1 SU this season in games decided by five points or less. KenPom, appropriately, has the Friars rated as the “luckiest” team in America and my own power rankings have them as just the SIXTH best team in the Big East. I will continue fading! 

Providence obviously deserves to be ranked (they are 23-3 SU), but if you think this is one of the Top 11 teams in America, then I’ve got a “bridge in Topeka” you might be interested in buying! They are not even in the Top 40 of my power rankings. Five of their last seven wins have been by four points or less and that DOESN’T even include the 3OT game! I simply refuse to believe this run of good fortune can continue. 

Creighton comes in looking to play “spoiler” here. The Bluejays have won six in a row, three of them by three points or less, so they know “a thing or two” about close wins as well. Somewhat appropriately, the two Creighton-Providence meetings last year were decided by a total of six points (road team went 2-0). I am aware that PG Nembhard fractured his wrist against St. John’s and his season is done. But another freshman has returned (Kaluma). Creighton is a hot team and, again, this is all about fading Providence. Take the points. 8* Creighton

8* Atlanta (7:40 ET): This is a TERRIBLE spot for Toronto, who just got wiped out last night in Charlotte. It was a 32-point loss at Charlotte in the Raptors’ first game after the All-Star Break. While they were a hot team prior to the Break, winning 9 of 11, we saw none of that last night as the Raptors trailed by as many as 41 points in the 3Q! Pascal Siakam played, despite flu-like symptoms, and shot just 3 of 13 from the field. The Raptors were outrebounded badly and let the Hornets shoot 55% overall. 

Atlanta lost a close on Thursday, 112-108 in Chicago. They fell victim to DeMar DeRozan as a lot of teams have this month. The Bulls scored the game’s final seven points. The Hawks ended up being a bit short-handed as De’Andre Hunter missed the 2H because of illness, Lou Williams played just 12 minutes and John Collins and Gorgui Deng were both out. Yet the Hawks were right there at the end and that’s despite shooting just 8 of 28 from three-point range and 18 of 27 at the free throw line. 

Both of these teams obviously feel they will play better on Saturday. But the Hawks are better rested and at home. Trae Young is certainly going to have a bounce back effort here after going just 3 of 17 and scoring 14 points on Thursday. Atlanta also needs the win more as they are 10th in the East, only one game ahead of Washington. This is a double revenge spot for the Hawks, who have twice lost to the Raptors over the last month. I like them to get the job done. 8* Atlanta

8* Rutgers (6:00 ET): This is the second time in less than two weeks that Wisconsin, who is ranked #14, is a short underdog to an unranked conference foe. They eked out a 74-69 win at Indiana back on 2/15, but I don’t think the Badgers pull the same trick again here. This is an overrated team, according to my power rankings. I faded them earlier in the week when they escaped Minnesota with a one-point win (Minnesota covered as five-point dogs). The Badgers’ record in close games has been insanely good. I think they’re due to drop one. Oh by the way, Saturday’s opponent (Rutgers) won in Madison earlier this month!

After Wednesday, Wisconsin is now 13-1 SU in games decided by six points or less. They have clearly been one of the luckiest teams in the entire country this season. Clearly, unless you are from Madison, you can’t possibly believe that the Badgers are the 14th best team in the country. I think that they are only the SEVENTH best team in the Big 10! My power ratings have them at #30.

Rutgers has played an insanely hard schedule of late, but they’ve (mostly) been up to the challenge. They had four straight wins over Top 25 teams (including Wisconsin) before losing at Purdue and Michigan. This is a different team at the RAC as the Scarlet Knights are 13-2 SU at home and holding teams to just 59.7 PPG. Look for them to sweep the season series and cover the spread here. 8* Rutgers

10* Under Mavs/Jazz (9:10 ET): Dallas was the top Under team in the league over the first half (of the season) with a 36-21-2 mark. Now, the Under has been hitting a lot more regularly in their HOME games (22-8-1), but what is interesting about that is the average total number of points per game scored in Dallas home games (207.8) is not all that different from what we see on the road (212.3). Facing a Utah team that has gone Under in six of seven games in February, I expect a low-scoring first game post-All Star Break Friday night. 

The way things stand right now in the Western Conference, this would be a first round playoff matchup. Utah is 4th, though I believe there’s a good chance they will catch and pass Memphis for 3rd by the end of the regular season. The Jazz are one of the NBA’s highest scoring teams (113.7 PPG), however their defense has been outstanding this month with 106 being the most points allowed in any game. Dallas is a solid 5th in the West, also having won six of its last seven games. 

These teams have met just one time so far this season and it was on X-Mas with Utah winning a high-scoring game, 120-116 here in Salt Lake City. The Mavs played that game short-handed. Tonight, look for them to control the tempo (they place at the slowest pace in the league) in order to limit the damage Utah can do offensively. Again, this is the first game back after a long All-Star Break and shooters could be rusty on both sides. 10* Under Mavs/Jazz

8* New Orleans (9:10 ET): The Suns played last night and won 124-104 in OKC. Thus they picked up right where they left off before the All-Star Break and have now won eight in a row (and 19 of 20!) and continue to pace the Western Conference with a remarkable 49-10 overall record. This is the best team in the NBA right now, there’s no denying that. But laying this many points, in the second night of a back to back, immediately following a long break seems like as good a time as any to fade them. 

New Orleans is looking to get that last play-in spot. They are 12th in the West, but only 1.5 games back of Portland. Before the Break, they dropped four of five (all at home). But, unlike the Suns, the Pelicans are rested coming into Friday’s tilt. Also, while the overall record may not sound all that impressive, consider the fact the Pelicans started the year 3-16. Since that time, they’ve played .500 ball and been competitive. They now have CJ McCollum, who they acquired from Portland in a trade at the deadline. 

Lost in the Suns’ margin of victory last night is the fact they don’t have Chris Paul (injured) right now. They didn’t need their floor leader against a hapless side like the Thunder, but here it should matter more. I know the Suns have beaten the Pelicans twice so far this season, both times by double digits. But the situation really favors the underdog tonight and they didn’t shoot well in either of those first two head to head matchups. They’re a better team now than they were in January (when they last faced PHX). Take the points. 8* New Orleans

8* Richmond (7:00 ET): Two teams in the upper tier of the Atlantic 10 meet in this Friday night battle on ESPN2. I had Richmond on Tuesday, laying the points with them at GW and they came through with a 84-71 win and cover. Looking back, the Spiders have really only had one bad game (more like one bad half) since losing the first meeting with St. Louis, 76-69 back on Jan 2. Since that time, three of their four losses have been by three points or less. The exception was last Friday at VCU (lost by 20), but that was a tie game at halftime. 

Saint Louis, who is a game up on Richmond for fifth place in the A-10, hasn’t really beaten anyone in the A-10’s upper tier with the exception of a 72-61 win over Dayton three weeks ago. The Billikens dropped two games to St. Bonaventure and were also recently blown out at Davidson. They did rebound from that 21-point loss by defeating St. Joe’s on Tuesday, but that was at home. The Billikens are just 3-4 SU on the conference road this season compared to 7-1 SU at home. 

Saint Louis is the highest scoring team in the A-10, but they struggle defensively out on the road, giving up 76.1 PPG. Look for Richmond to take advantage. I also find it hard to believe that teams will continue hitting 38% of their 3PA against the Spiders here in Richmond. In the first meeting, Richmond held St. Louis to 5 of 19 from three-point range. This is a major revenge spot for the home team as they’ve lost three in a row to SLU, who is just 1-10 ATS its L11 road games vs. teams that have winning home records. 8* Richmond

8* Oregon State (11:00 ET): USC was very lucky to escape with a 62-60 win Sunday night against Washington State. Thankfully, I had Wazzu plus the points, so it was a winning bet for me. USC won the game on a last second shot after trailing most of the way. They were down six with just over five minutes to go and scored the game’s final five points. Curiously, Washington State was 5 of 32 from TWO-point range in the game and could not take full advantage of 16 offensive rebounds. It was a very odd box score and again, USC was lucky to walk away the victor. 

At 23-4, this is USC’s best start to a season since 1974. I maintain that the Trojans are slightly overrated and just barely a Top 25 team. They have been rather fortunate to go 7-1 SU in games decided by five points or less. Laying double digits here, on the road, seems like a good time to fade. The Trojans have covered just two of their last eight games. One was as a 10.5 point dog at Arizona (they lost the game straight up) while the other was as a two-point dog (beat UCLA by three). The last time this team covered as a favorite was January 24th. 

Meanwhile, it has been an incredible free fall for Oregon State, who was in the Elite Eight last year and now is 3-22 straight up. I recall playing against them (successfully) in the very first game of the season. The Beavers have not won since 12/31 and have one of the worst ATS records in the country at 6-18-1. However, I think this is a good value on them in Corvallis. Every SU win this year has come at home and earlier in the year, they stayed within 10 of USC on the road (despite being -12 in FT attempts). Hold your nose and take the points here. USC is overrated. 8* Oregon State

10* Belmont (9:00 ET): Well, here we go. It’s second-place Belmont (14-2 in OVC, 24-5 overall) taking on first place Murray State (16-0, 26-2) in perhaps the marquee “mid-major” game of this College Basketball season. As you can see from the spread, oddsmakers believe these teams are pretty evenly ranked, much more so than the pollsters, who have Murray State as the #19 team in America and Belmont barely drawing any votes. My view is that Murray State has been a great story this year, but they are NOT one of the Top 20 teams in America. In fact, my own power ratings don’t even have them in the top 50! 

So it’s probably time for the Racers to be knocked down a peg. They’ve had two “close calls” recently, needing to come from behind in the second half against both Morehead State and UT Martin. Now both those games were on the road. At home, just like in conference play, Murray State is undefeated this season. But it’s probably worth mentioning that they were six-point underdogs in the first meeting with Belmont. The fact they won 82-60 and have gone on such a tear has obviously caused a dramatic shift in the market for this rematch. But, now being ranked, it feels that the Racers are overvalued. 

Belmont shot horribly in that first meeting, particularly from behind the arc where they finished 5 of 23. They had beaten Murray State four straight times before that loss, however. The Bruins enter tonight’s rematch on a 10-game win streak and four of those wins have been by 20 or more. Tonight is just the fourth time all season that Belmont has been an underdog. They very much have been overshadowed by Murray State’s success this year, but really they are pretty even with the Racers and a legit threat not just to win tonight, but to also “steal” the OVC’s automatic bid in the conference tournament. Take the points. 10* Belmont

10* Atlanta (8:10 ET): Chicago entered the All-Star Break tied with Miami for the best record in the Eastern Conference. However, there are certain metrics (point differential, net efficiency) that suggest the Bulls are a little lucky to be in the position they currently find themselves in. I’ve got them rated fifth among the Eastern Conference contenders, which obviously suggests a drop here in the second half of the season. Thus, I’ll be fading them coming out the break tonight as they are laying points. 

Atlanta got off to a VERY slow start this season, but has clawed its way into 10th place in the East and that would give them a shot in the play-in round. I don’t think the Hawks can necessarily finish any better than 8th, but they should have a better second half to the season than they did the first half. The team averaged 127 points in a pair of wins before the break and I think they should put up some points here as Chicago has not been the same defensively since losing Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso to injury. 

The Bulls are on a five-game win streak coming out of the break, but the Hawks have won 11 of their last 16. All eyes are on DeMar DeRozan, who is the first Chicago player to score 30+ points in eight straight games since Michael Jordan. But Atlanta’s Trae Young is averaging 29.2 PPG his last nine games as well. Remember that the Hawks were in the Eastern Conference finals last season. They remember losing a pair of games to Chicago right after X-Mas and I think will be out for revenge. Take the points. 10* Atlanta

9* St. Thomas MN (8:00 ET): This would be my first ever play on St. Thomas, a D-I newbie for the 2021-22 season that is competing in the Summit League. The Tommies are simply looking to avoid the basement of the conference standings and with two games to go, I like their chances. They have two favorable matchups, both at home, and are now up a game on last place North Dakota, whom they just defeated 84-74 (as a 1-point road dog) 48 hours ago. Now the Tommies look to avenge a one-point loss they suffered back in December. 

They are facing Denver, who historically struggles on the road and this season has been no different in that regard. The Pioneers are 2-12 SU in “true” road games, last winning one against aforementioned North Dakota back on ⅔. That’s Denver’s only win over its L7 games as they’ve dropped four in a row, most recently a three-point decision at Omaha seven days ago. That game saw them blow an eight-point lead in the final two minutes and lose at the buzzer. 

The first meeting between these teams saw Denver shoot the ball ridiculously well at 58.7% overall. But of course that was at home where they play much better. St. Thomas had a 15-point halftime advantage in that first meeting, something that I’m sure the players remember and they’ll be looking to avenge that memory. Also, the Tommies haven’t won at home since New Year’s Day, something they’ll be looking to change. After failing to cover 11 in a row, they’ve covered back to back games. Lay the short number. 9* St. Thomas MN

8* Western Illinois (7:00 ET): It may seem a bit strange to see a team like Western Illinois laying double digits, but you have to consider just how BAD Omaha has been all season long. The fact that the visitors come into this Thursday night Summit League clash off a rare win makes them an even stronger fade, at least in my estimation. Then there’s the matter of this being a revenge game for Western Illinois, who dropped the first meeting (as 13-point road favorites) back in December. You’re going to want to lay the points here. 

Omaha is 5-22 SU this season, but like I said, they did win their last game. It was a 72-69 win - as 2-point home underdogs - over Denver exactly one week ago. Incredibly, the Mavericks were able to come back from an eight-point deficit in the final two minutes with Frankie Fidler scoring all 11 points, including the game-winning three at the buzzer. Do not expect that kind of magic to repeat itself on the road where Omaha has yet to win this season (0-13) and is being outscored by 24.2 PPG. 

Western Illinois is on a five-game ATS losing streak, so we’re getting a great value on them here. The Leathernecks were actually 13-point favorites ON THE ROAD in the first meeting with Omaha, a game where they shot horribly (32.4%), especially from three-point range (7 of 37). I really love the revenge angle here, plus the fact we’re getting to play against Omaha off a win. Western Illinois is a high-scoring team (78.8 PPG) and plays much better defense at home. They’ll shoot a lot better tonight than they did in that first matchup with the Mavericks. 8* Western Illinois

8* LSU (9:00 ET): The Tigers have fallen out of both polls, but are still considered top 18 by both KenPom and my ratings. There are six SEC teams that I feel belong amongst the Top 20 in the country (it’s a very strong league this year) and this is definitely one of them. LSU is #3 in the country in defensive efficiency, which will serve them well come March and in this critical matchup Wednesday night at Kentucky. Already this season, the Tigers have beaten the Wildcats, 65-60 as a two-point FAVORITE down in Baton Rouge. 

Because of the revenge angle, this number is inflated. It should be pointed out that Kentucky has struggled in B2B games, first losing by 13 at Tennessee and then falling behind by that same margin against Alabama, before rallying for a win on Saturday. There is no denying the fact that John Calipari has himself a team that can cut down the nets this year. But given the recent form, I can’t see the Wildcats covering this spread tonight. LSU, who is off a loss, is going to be the more motivated side even though they won the first head to head matchup. 

It was a 77-75 loss at South Carolina on Saturday for LSU. That dropped them to 7-7 SU in SEC play, very much in the middle of the pack, which is not at all indicative of how they stack up against the rest of the league. The Tigers led South Carolina by as many as 11 in the second half before wilting late. This will be just the fifth time getting points all season. Kentucky is short-handed right now and all five starters played 35+ minutes on Saturday. Grab the points. 8* LSU

10* Minnesota (9:00 ET): #13 Wisconsin has been extremely lucky in close games this season as they are 12-1 SU in games decided by six points or less. They have the #7 luck rating at KenPom, who has them at #25 overall. My own power ratings have them a bit lower (#31). Clearly, unless you’re from Madison, you can’t possibly think that the Badgers are the 13th best team in the country. I think that they are only the SEVENTH best team in the Big 10 and consider they were recently a short dog at Indiana, who is NOT one of the six Big 10 teams I have ahead of Wisconsin in my power ratings.

Nor is Minnesota one of the top six. But the Golden Gophers are coming off a win, 77-60 over Northwestern as 4.5-point home dogs. It speaks volumes that Wisconsin is basically getting the same amount of respect here than N’western did. Minnesota has won its last two home games, also defeating Penn State 76-70 (as a one-point favorite) back on 2/12. Earlier in the season, the Gophers covered the number at Madison, losing only 66-60 as an 11.5-point dog. The game was tied with 2:23 remaining 

Remember that this is Wisconsin’s first game after the fracas against Michigan on Sunday. HC Greg Gard was not suspended, but fined and the aftermath could very well be a distraction for the Badgers heading into this one. The Badgers only shoot 31% from behind the three-point line, which is second to last in the Big 10. They instead live at the free throw line and rely on not turning the ball over. Given how their season has played out, I don’t think it’s a sustainable blueprint. Take the points here as I believe an outright upset is likely. 10* Minnesota

8* Loyola Chicago (8:00 ET): I “smell” blowout in this one as the best and worst teams in the Missouri Valley match up on Wednesday. Loyola Chicago has stumbled a bit recently, going just 5-3 SU in its last eight games, but that may be a byproduct of having gotten off to such a strong start in conference play. Now the Ramblers find themselves in a first place tie with Northern Iowa, who they’ll face in the regular season finale on Saturday. I don’t see any “fooling around” tonight as Loyola can clinch at least a share of the MVC regular season crown with a win here. 

Evansville is at the opposite end of the spectrum, in last place in the conference. The Purple Aces are just 6-21 SU overall and 2-14 in conference play. It is a virtual guarantee at this point that they will be seeded last in the conference tourney. Five straight losses, including 74-69 at Valpo on Monday, have really dampened spirits and I just can’t see how the Evansville players come into this one with any sense of motivation, knowing that a blowout loss is quite likely. 

Meanwhile, it’s the final home game for the Loyola seniors, so they’ll be even more fired up. This is a team that shoots 37.8% from three-point range with Williamson and Norris both over 41%. When they faced Evansville last month, it turned into a bloodbath with the Ramblers making 62.8% of their FG attempts and going 10 of 17 from behind the arc. The final score was 77-48. Following an atypical poor shooting effort Monday at Illinois State (still won 59-50), I expect Loyola to get hot here and never let up. 8* Loyola Chicago

8* Xavier (7:00 ET): Providence’s incredible run of luck is bordering on being downright preposterous at this point. They just came back from 19 down (in the second half!) to stun Butler in overtime this past weekend. That was the Friars’ second OT win in the last three games (sandwiched around a loss to Villanova) and five of their last six wins have been by four points or less. For the season, they are 10-1 SU in games decided by five or less. At 22-3 SU and leading the Big East Conference, Providence obviously deserves to be ranked. But to think that they are a Top 10 team is insanity. My own power ratings have them at #45 in the country and say they are just the sixth best team in the Big East! That’s right in line with what KenPom says. 

Xavier will try and knock off the Friars here. This is a revenge game for the Musketeers as they lost the season’s first meeting 65-62 on a last second three-pointer. Xavier was ranked, but has dropped four of its last five coming into tonight. Two of those losses were by four points or less. Saturday saw them lose at UConn, who is the second best team in the Big East.

Xavier did not shoot the ball well at UConn, making only 38.3% overall and 29.4% from three-point range. Yet HC Travis Steele seemed to think it was a case of his team simply missing open looks. I look for the shots to fall tonight for the Musketeers. Providence has failed to cover three in a row and due to drop a game before the end of the regular season. No team in America has been luckier this year than the Friars. Xavier actually has the better YTD point differential! Take the points. 8* Xavier

8* North Alabama (7:00 ET): Here’s a matchup most normally wouldn’t think of playing, but my power rankings say there’s tremendous value on the home side, who “should” be laying double digits! North Alabama’s ATS record of 8-14-1 obviously leaves a lot to be desired, but Central Arkansas is not a good team at all and has just two road wins all season. It would seem as if we’re getting a really solid value here as North Alabama was a 3.5-point road favorite the first time these teams played. 

Now the Lions lost that first meeting 89-88 after blowing a 10-point halftime lead. They led by seven with under a minute to go in regulation! But somehow they let Central Arkansas make four baskets in the final 50 seconds to force overtime. It’s been “that kind of year” for North Alabama, who now finds itself in last place in the ASun West Division with a 2-12 SU record in conference play. They’ve lost six in a row, however four of those losses were by six points or less and the last two were by a total of seven points. 

It still may feel “risky” to lay points with a team like that, but I assure you that Central Arkansas is very bad. They are my lowest rated team in the entire Atlantic Sun, so it’s a bit shocking to see them with a 6-8 SU conference record. The oddsmakers have not had them favored in a single game this season! It was a 19-point loss that the Bears suffered on Monday (to Liberty). Meanwhile, North Alabama hasn’t played since Saturday, so the schedule sets up nicely for the home team in this one. 8* North Alabama

10* Alabama (9:00 ET): I’m not ready to “give up” on the Crimson Tide just yet, who definitely deserved to stay ranked following Saturday’s tough 90-81 loss at Kentucky. The Tide led that game by 13 in the 1st half, so they were incredibly unfortunate to leave Lexington without at least an ATS win. The loss dropped them into a four-way tie for fifth in the SEC and three full games back of the top four. I believe Bama is a lot closer to those top four teams than they are the rest of the conference pack. Laying just a short number at Vandy on Tuesday, this is a spot where you’ll want to be on Nate Oats’ team. 

Like I mentioned earlier, Bama is still ranked, albeit barely at #25. Both my own personal power ratings and the KenPom ratings have them at #20. I will readily admit that the Crimson Tide have NOT been a good bet in conference play as they are just 2-11 ATS vs. the rest of the SEC this season. But this is an opportunity for them to go on the road and make a statement against a Vandy team that just isn’t anywhere near the same class as Bama, despite being only a game behind in the standings. Among SEC teams, I have the Commodores rated 10th and outside the top 80 in the country. 

The Commies did pick up a win on Saturday, beating Texas A&M 72-67. That was a game where both teams shot very poorly from three-point range, but where Vandy got really lucky was that A&M starters combined for just EIGHT total points in the 1H. I’ve mentioned this with Bama before, but despite very poor three-point shooting this season, they are still averaging more than 80 PPG. Defensively, the game vs. Kentucky exposed some of the issues, but Vanderbilt is not Kentucky. I look for Oats’ team to make a statement tonight that they belong in the Top 25. 10* Alabama

8* Richmond (7:00 ET): Richmond flat out got embarrassed on Friday, losing by 20 at VCU. That was a damaging loss for the Spiders, who are now sixth in the Atlantic 10 standings and four games off the pace of first place Davidson. Coming off a result like that, many are likely to be a bit “gun-shy” about laying the points on the road here, but I’ll note that Richmond was actually even at the half with VCU and this number really speaks volumes about the gap between the top six in the A-10 and everyone else. 

George Washington is actually the seventh place team in the A-10 right now with a 7-6 SU conference record. The Colonials have had themselves a profitable last month or so, going 8-1 ATS their last nine games. But they’ve mainly been beating up on the bottom of the conference, defeating teams such as Fordham, LaSalle, Duquesne and Rhode Island (twice). It’s interesting that all three SU losses in those L9 games came against teams in the top six of the A-10, two of them by double digits (13 at St. Louis and 26 at Dayton).

Prior to things going awry in the 2H at VCU, Richmond had finally been feeling pretty good about itself. They went into Friday having won seven of nine, the two losses coming by a total of five points. I think the Spiders are better than their record and should hit “paydirt” here. The goal down the stretch is getting a top four seed (double bye) for the conference tournament and that is still very attainable. GW was picked to finish 13th this year in the A-10, so they’ve overachieved as of late. Lay the points. 8* Richmond

10* Seattle U (10:00 ET): With the benefit of hindsight, I’m going to look back and realize I faded New Mexico State “a game too soon.” Saturday did not go well for me when I took Grand Canyon as my *10* WAC Game of the Month as they were beaten soundly at home by NMSU, 82-66 (line was GCU -2.5). I thought my reasoning was sound (obviously) as Grand Canyon came into that game at 12-1 SU at home. But it was “not to be” as NMSU came in and outclassed them from the jump, 

But the beauty of this is being able to learn from your mistakes and taking advantage of another opportunity. Such is the case here as I just don’t think NMSU is going to be able to win a second straight difficult road game. This time the opponent is Seattle, whom the Aggies are tied with for first place in the conference (both 12-2 SU). Seattle comes in riding a four-game win streak and is looking to avenge one of its two conference losses as they fell 79-64 as eight-point pups in Las Cruces back on February 5th. That was the last time that the Redhawks lost a game. 

It was a rough shooting night for Seattle back on the 5th as they connected on only 31.9% of their total FG attempts and were 6 of 32 from three-point range. Saturday saw more poor shooting as Seattle sunk just 31.4% of its FG attempts, but this time they were able to still win, 67-64 over Cal Baptist here at home. Fortunately, they were able to dominate in second chance points and took 23 more FG attempts. Should be noted the game before saw Seattle score 102. They average 78.1 PPG for the season at home, where they are 12-1 SU. 10* Seattle U

8* The Citadel (8:00 ET): Samford has been one of the luckiest teams in the country this season, posting the #4 luck rating over at KenPom and posting nine wins by six points or less. Much of that good fortune has come recently as the last four wins have all been by six or less and the Bulldogs have won seven of eight overall. It should also be noted that two of their last four wins have required overtime. The one loss in the last eight games came against the team that they face on Monday and I believe the line for the rematch is inflated. Take the points here. 

It was on February 5th that The Citadel defeated Samford 107-93 as 1-point home underdogs. No, there was no overtime in that game, a battle of “Bulldogs” if you will. Samford scored a season high 53 points in the first half, but that wasn’t enough as The Citadel scored 100+ points in a game for the fourth time this season and got season-highs in points from both Hayden Brown (35) and Jason Roche (29). 

Samford played much better defense on Saturday, holding UNC Greensboro to 49 points on 28.3% shooting. The expectation here will be for revenge, but like I said earlier, the line looks inflated. Plus, you have to factor in just how fortunate Samford has been all season, especially as of late. The Citadel have been held well below their season average of 78.0 points in B2B games and you have to figure another offensive explosion is forthcoming. Prior to winning seven of their last eight, Samford had lost six of seven, so they are inconsistent. It’s not often they are asked to lay this many points, so take advantage. 8* The Citadel

10* Washington State (7:30 ET): Back on Thursday, I faded USC. It was a little bit of a lucky cover by Washington, who trailed by 17 at halftime and was down by as many as 23 in the second half. But I’ll take it. The reason I faded the Trojans in that spot was two-fold. One, they were coming off an upset win over rival UCLA. Two, I happen to think they’re overrated. While no longer off a big win, Southern Cal being overrated (at #17 in the country) still rings true, so I’m gonna grab the points for the second straight time and go against them. 

With apologies to Bill Walton, the Pac 12 is not a particularly deep league this season. Right now, I don’t see more than three teams making the Big Dance. USC is on the right side of the bubble. But the fourth best team in the league, according to my power ratings, is Washington State and the gap between them and the Trojans is not that large. The Cougars have been one of the unluckier teams in the country this season, at least per KenPom, and that’s backed up by their 1-8 SU record in games decided by five points or less. 

I think it’s time for Wazzu to show that it’s better than its record (14-11 SU). Yes, they’ve dropped four in a row. But two of those losses were by a total of six points and the other two were against Arizona and UCLA, who are the class of the conference. The Cougs shot a season-low 28.3% against UCLA on Thursday and will be a lot better offensively tonight. It was a two-point loss when they faced USC back in December. I believe there’s a very good chance of an outright upset here. 10* Washington State

8* San Jose State (4:00 ET): San Jose State has not won a game since January 8th and that was against Bethesda (CA), a non-DI team. So why would I be taking them? Well, I believe they are catching New Mexico in a flat spot. Over the last six days, the Lobos have faced Wyoming and Colorado State, two of the top teams in the Mountain West. Both games were at home. They pulled the upset over Wyoming, but were not nearly as fortunate against Colorado State. The Lobos’ road resume leaves a lot to be desired as they are just 2-8 SU this season outside of Albuquerque and giving up 82.6 PPG. 

Furthermore, New Mexico has not played a road game since Feb 5 when it downed Air Force 91-77.  That is their only win outside the state of New Mexico all season. The other road win came on 11/30, against New Mexico State, 101-94. The Lobos are just 1-5  ATS their last six trips here to San Jose. This will be just the second time all year they’ve been a road favorite and first time laying more than one point. 

In the season’s first meeting, New Mexico won 86-70, but it’s difficult for me to see them holding the Spartans to 22.2% shooting from three-point range again. Defense has been a major issue for the Lobos. They just gave up 40+ points in both halves vs. Colorado State. Them laying this many points away from home just seems like a bad idea. San Jose State is not going to want to go winless in conference play for an entire regular season. This is their best shot at a win the rest of the way. Take the points. 8* San Jose State

8* Michigan (1:00 ET): I’ve been “suspicious” about Wisconsin for some time now, not believing they are one of the top 25 teams in America. Give the Badgers credit though for going into Indiana earlier this week and picking up a 74-69 win. They were actually underdogs in that game, despite being the #14 team in the country facing a ranked opponent. Here, they are only a short home favorite and that’s for good reason as Michigan (who is also off a five-point road win) is rated higher in my power ratings. Take the points. 

The Wolverines are looking to make it back to back road wins here as they won at Iowa on Thursday, 84-79 as a five-point dog. That’s an impressive win as Iowa is a top 20 team in my power ratings and better than Wisconsin. But Juwan Howard’s team still enters Sunday firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble as they are among the “last four in.” At just 14-10 SU on the year, the Maize and Blue can’t afford too many more losses. They have matched up well with Wisconsin in the past, taking six of the previous eight meetings and sweeping the season series last year. 

The Badgers are among the luckiest teams in the country this season as they are now 12-1 SU in games decided by six points or less. The other key to their success has been committing the fewest number of turnovers per game in the entire country. But they are still just the EIGHTH highest rated Big 10 team in my power ratings, which speaks volumes. Michigan, who I believe is a fringe Top 25 team despite its record, has played a top four schedule and is top 20 in the country in offensive efficiency. 8* Michigan

8* Butler (1:00 ET): I just played against Butler, on Friday, and that went very well as the Bulldogs lost 91-57 at St. John’s. They shot only 34.5% from the field while letting the Red Storm hit a blistering 61.4%. But that was a road game and an atypical final margin when looking through recent Butler results. Prior to that ugly loss, six straight Butler games had been decided by six points or less with five decided by three or less. Last time they were at home, the Bulldogs upset Marquette. I believe they can do the same to what I believe is the most overrated team in America, Providence. 

The Friars got a “taste of their own medicine” back on Tuesday, losing a close one at home to Villanova 89-84. I say “taste of their own medicine” because this team had gone a ridiculous 9-0 SU in games decided by five points or less. Just to give you an idea on my outlook on the Friars, they are not even in the top 40 of my power rankings, despite a 21-3 overall SU record and leading the Big East. I think that after suffering a high-profile loss, they are ripe to be upset here. 

Things fell apart for Butler late in the first half against St. John’s. I expect the team to play much better here after being embarrassed. Bryce Nze did  return to the lineup Friday and played 25 minutes. So that’s a positive. The lingering question now is if Bo Hodges can return here. He’s listed as questionable. With or without him, I expect the upset to be pulled as the Bulldogs were able to stay within seven of Providence (on the road) back on 1/22 despite going 5 of 20 from three-point range and 1 of 4 at the FT line. Take the points. 8* Butler

10* UCSB (10:00 ET): This line should tell you “all you need to know.” Long Beach State, who is in first place in the Big West and on an 11-0 SU/ATS run, is an underdog to UCSB, who is buried in the middle of the conference pack. What gives? Long Beach State has been among the luckiest teams in the country this season while UCSB has been THE unluckiest. This per the KenPom ratings. The Gauchos are my second highest rated team in the Big West (behind UC Irvine, NOT LBSU) and deserved favorites here. 

Long Beach State will be playing its third straight road game and second in three nights here. So they are ripe to be blown out. It’s an incredible run that the Beach has been on when you consider they’ve been the underdog in six of the 11 straight games that they have won, including five of the last eight. They were 4.5-point underdogs when they hosted UCSB earlier in the season. That wound up being a 65-58 final as UCSB played a terrible second half, scoring only 24 points. They finished that game 3 of 15 from three-point range. Expect better tonight. 

UCSB actually led that first meeting by eight at halftime. Another difference was while LBSU was 17 of 17 from the FT line, UCSB was only 9 of 15. These teams have pretty similar FT shooting numbers for the season, so that disparity won’t repeat itself. The Gauchos are holding visiting teams to just 38.1% shooting when here at home (allow only 59.6 PPG). This team is simply much better than its record and tonight is the time they’ll prove that. 10* UCSB

9* Grand Canyon (8:00 ET): It’s a pretty tight race atop the WAC, which is a better league than you may think. I’ve got New Mexico State and Grand Canyon rated as the top two teams, but for the latter, this game is far more important as they are actually tied for fourth in the standings with a 9-4 SU conference record. Tonight is a revenge spot as the Antelopes lost to NMSU 71-61 late last month. But laying just a small number at home, where GCU is 12-1 SU and 7-4 ATS this season, is a great value. 

For starters, Grand Canyon shot very poorly in that first meeting with New Mexico State. Not only did they finish at just 29.5% overall for the game, but they were a horrendous 5 of 32 from three-point range. Expect an obvious improvement in shooting here at home where their three-point percentage for the season is hovering near 40%. It’s actually a pretty raucous crowd that GCU plays in front of at home and they’ve rewarded fans by outscoring opponents by 19.3 PPG here this season. Also, don’t discount the defense, which limits teams to 38.4% shooting (that’s all games). 

New Mexico State is typically the standard-bearer in this conference and sure enough they are currently in first with an 11-2 record. But I think the Aggies have been a bit lucky this season as they are 5-1 SU in games decided by six or less. I’ll definitely be looking to fade them down the stretch. Their last time on the road resulted in a loss to Utah Valley State as a three-point favorite. This game is absolutely crucial to Grand Canyon’s chances of getting a top two seed in the WAC Tournament (and a double bye). I love this spot for them. 9* Grand Canyon

8* Florida State (6:00 ET): Duke, who is the only ranked team in the ACC right now (#9), probably feels pretty good about its chances of being alone in first place by the end of Saturday. Notre Dame, who they are tied with, is a six-point underdog at Wake Forest earlier in the day. Here, the Blue Devils are big double digit favorites, at home. But I think it’s a good time to step in and fade as Florida State is certainly about due to cover the spread. The Seminoles are a shocking 0-7 ATS their L7 games entering tonight. 

At least FSU was able to get back into the win column earlier this week, albeit by the slimmest of possible margins. They beat Clemson 81-80, which snapped a six-game SU skid. Unfortunately for ‘Noles backers, they were laying 1.5. The big issue for this team right now is injuries as three starters have gone down since FSU upset Duke 79-78 as five-point underdogs in Tallahassee back on January 18th. But the Noles are still competing. Only the loss to North Carolina last Saturday exceeds tonight’s spread. 

Duke is also off a last second win, 76-74 over Wake Forest, where they played without Coach K on the bench for the second half. The Hall of Famer had to leave due to illness and his status (for coaching today’s game) remains up in the air. That makes it difficult to prepare and with a three-game road trip upcoming (starting with another revenge spot, against Virginia), I’m not sure “all eyes” are on this game from the Duke perspective. FSU won the first meeting despite shooting only 35.6% overall and 7 of 25 from 3-point range. They won’t be blown out here. 8* Florida State

8* Mississippi State (7:00 ET): Earlier in the week, I faded Miss State. That proved to be a mistake as the Bulldogs just barely stayed within the number at Alabama, losing by only five. But they probably don’t care too much about that down in Starkville as the team is still on a four-game SU losing streak. All four of those losses came to teams that are currently ranked in the top 25 of my power ratings (Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU & Bama). The SEC is tough! But tonight’s opponent, Missouri, is anything but. This is a “get well” game for the home team.

Mizzou just got thrashed by Arkansas on Tuesday, losing by 19 points.That was the deficit at halftime, so the game was never really close. The big problem for the Tigers is that they lack a true point guard and opponents are taking advantage by forcing a lot of turnovers. They are 239th in the country in assist to turnover ratio and that’s played a big role in them sitting near the bottom of the SEC standings. Only Ole Miss and Georgia currently sit below. Two of the Tigers’ SEC wins have come against Ole Miss.

This will be the first of two meetings in three days between these teams. As hosts for the first one, I expect Miss State to come out “smelling blood in the water.” They led Alabama in the second half on Wednesday. That was after a second half rally fell short at LSU. The Bulldogs played Arkansas and Tennessee tough as well. Like I said earlier, this is a “get well” game and it’s against a Missouri team they’ve beaten four straight. 8* Mississippi State

10* Marist (7:00 ET): Marist is the better team here. Siena has been incredibly lucky this season with the second highest “luck rating” over at KenPom (trailing only Providence). The Saints’ good fortune has continued recently with three consecutive upset victories - over Fairfield, Iona (MAAC leader) and Rider. This run has them squarely in second in the conference (with a 9-4 SU record), but my own power ratings indicate this is anything but the second best team in the MAAC. It’s time for them to suffer a loss. 

Marist is also coming into Friday riding a three-game win streak. The Red Foxes have beaten Monmouth (83-58 on the road!), Canisius (71-70) and Niagara (77-70). The last two wins were at home, but Marist has more than held its own on the road this season. That includes a 5-0 ATS record when the total is 130 to 134.5. Tonight is also a revenge game for the Red Foxes, who lost at home to Siena, 67-60 as four-point favorites back on January 14th. They will be highly motivated for this one. 

Siena needed OT to get by Rider on Sunday in what was a revenge spot for them. The Saints scored 40 first-half points in that one, a season-high. I would not expect a repeat of that; after all this is a team that is averaging less than THIRTY points in the first half over the course of the season. They rank outside the top 300 in the country in offensive efficiency! Meanwhile, Marist has been one of the unluckiest teams in the country per KenPom (343rd in luck rating) and has gone 3-7 SU in games decided by six pts or less. It’s time for the luck to turn for these two teams! 10* Marist

8* St. John’s (5:00 ET): Butler has played nothing but close games recently with each of their six contests decided by six points or less. Five of them were decided by three points or less! The Bulldogs ended up going 3-3 SU in those six games as they are off B2B upset wins over Marquette and DePaul. But it’s tough for me to forecast a third consecutive upset win here as you’ve got to question what the team has “left in the tank” after such a rash of close contests. Also, Butler may still be without starters Hodges and Nze. 

St. John’s is off one of its most impressive wins of the season, beating Xavier 86-73 on the road as a 7.5-point dog. The Red Storm seem to have turned it around a bit after a rocky first half of the season. They’ve won three of five, the only losses coming to Villanova and UConn, who I have rated as the two best teams in the Big East. Leading scorer Julian Champagnie had 27 points in the win over Marquette on Wednesday and the team shot better than 50% for the seventh time this season. 

This is the second time Butler and St. John’s are meeting this month. The Johnnies won the first meeting, on the road, 75-72 despite shooting just 2 of 16 from three-point range. You’ve got to imagine they’ll shoot better than that here. Meanwhile, I don’t see Butler matching its 51.8% shooting from that game as they are averaging only 60.1 PPG on the road while shooting 40.1% overall and 29% from three-point range. This should be a double digit win for the home team. 8* St. John’s

8* Washington (11:30 ET): This is a good spot to fade USC, who I don’t think is the 17th best team in the country anyway. The Trojans are coming off a huge win last week, 67-64 over rival USC, and even with a few days off won’t be able to match the intensity from that game. As I already mentioned, the Trojans are a bit overrated as they aren’t in the top 25 of my own power ratings or at KenPom. 

The fact USC was able to beat UCLA, despite not having leading scorer (and rebounder) Isaiah Mobley was a minor miracle. Also, their second leading scorer Boogie Ellis did not have a single point! Mobley is expected back for this game, but may struggle in recovering from a concussion. I certainly can’t see Drew Peterson matching his career day that happened against the Bruins. It should be noted that USC has failed to cover each of the last four times its has been favored.

The final score (92-68) says Washington got rocked in its last game (by Arizona), but they actually led by 14 early in the game and that was without starting guard Daejon Davis. Davis, like Mobley for USC, is expected back tonight. Arizona is one of the best teams in the country, so there’s no shame in losing to them. Believe it or not, the Huskies are just a game behind UCLA in the conference standings entering tonight. Take the points. 8* Washington

8* Philadelphia (8:30 ET): The 76ers were absolutely housed Tuesday night in Boston, losing 135-87 as a two-point underdog. You can bet they will be eager to wash away that embarrassment as they play their final game before the All-Star Break. Now it’s a tough one, in Milwaukee, on TNT. But the Bucks have failed to cover three in a row, losing two of the games straight up. They were blown out in Phoenix, then lost as 12-point favorites here at home to Portland, a real shocker. 

 The Bucks needed 50 from Giannis Antetokounmpo to down Indiana on Tuesday 128-119. While Giannis has seven 40+ point games already this season (already a career-high), the team cannot count on such a performance every night. The Bucks are just 7-15 ATS this season when facing a team that has a winning record. They are also 0-5 ATS when off three consecutive Overs. Both situations apply here.

As you’d expect, that loss to the Celtics saw Philly’s Joel Embiid turn in his lowest point total in quite some time. Embiid has been a beast this season and I expect a big game from him tonight. Yes, the Sixers are still without James Harden, but it’s still the same team that’s been in the top five of the East for most of the season. I think this is a great “buy low” spot on the Sixers as Tuesday was the sixth worst loss in franchise history. They are not that bad and will show up here to compete. 8* Philadelphia

10* Charlotte (7:10 ET): The Hornets could really use a win going into the All-Star Break. They’ve lost eight of their last nine games overall including six straight at home. Few setbacks were more painful than what happened Tuesday night in Minnesota. Charlotte led that game the majority of the way, but allowed the T’wolves to tie it and force overtime. It ended up being a 126-120 loss for the Hornets. I don’t even want to get into what that did for my Under play (on 244). Anyway, I do expect the Hornets to come out pretty fired up tonight and cover the spread. Take the points. 

Charlotte is the highest scoring team in the NBA currently, averaging 113.8 points per game. So they’ve got that going for them. The problem is that they haven’t been scoring a ton recently. Only twice in the last six home games have they topped 101. But they did have 108 in regulation vs. Minnesota and before that scored 118 vs. Memphis and 141 vs, Detroit. Having just blown a 13-point 4Q lead in their last game, the Hornets should come out motivated tonight and I’m expecting them to hit their season average. 

Miami is off a 107-99 loss to Dallas on Tuesday, at home. Jimmy Butler, who led the team with 29 points in that game, may not be suiting up this evening. He’s questionable with a shoulder injury. Tyler Herro has already been ruled out again (knee). So this is a great opportunity for Charlotte and adding “fuel to the fire” is that they have double revenge for a pair of losses to the Heat earlier this season. 10* Charlotte

8* Austin Peay (7:00 ET): Murray State has worked its way into the rankings (#21) with a 21-2 SU overall record and 14-game win streak. The Racers are one of three teams in the country (South Dakota State and Gonzaga are the others) with zero conference losses. They are the top ranked mid-major obviously. Do I think Murray State is the 21st best team in the country? In a word, no. My own power ratings have them just outside the top 50. So now is probably as good a time as any to fade them, especially since we are getting such a big number here. 

Austin Peay is the opponent Thursday night. The Governors are not having the best season (10-14 SU overall) but do come into this game on a three-game win streak. They are 6-8 in conference play, but five of those losses have been to the top three teams (Murray St, Belmont, Morehead State) and two of the other three were by four points or less. The first game vs. Murray State, which was exactly two weeks ago, ended up as a 12-point loss at home but Austin Peay only trailed by four at the half. 

What I like about the situation here for AP is that Murray State is coming off a close call, a 57-53 win at Morehead State last Saturday, which saw them trail most of the way and shoot very poorly. The Racers didn’t take the lead until the final two minutes of that game. Again, with the number (ranking) attached to their name, they become overvalued by the public/oddsmakers alike. Austin Peay can play good defense and keep this one close. 8* Austin Peay

10* Towson (6:00 ET): OK, so this is probably the biggest game in the CAA so far this season. UNC Wilmington, who no one pegged to win this thing, has been in first place almost the entire way. I’ve gone through the Seahawks’ remarkable overachievement previously and will double back to it in a moment. Towson, who lost at home to UNCW earlier in the season, is just one back in the loss column (two in the win) entering tonight’s contest. The result is huge for the Tigers and I believe they are deserved favorites in this one. 

Incredibly, UNCW has won seven games this year in which they faced a double digit deficit. Not only that, four of those DD deficits were overcome in the second half! On Monday, when I successfully faded them (as DD favorites), the Seahawks needed overtime to outlast William & Mary, who is probably the worst team in the conference. UNCW has ZERO double digit wins in conference play. Not only are they 3-0 in overtime games this season, they are 9-2 SU when the final margin is six points or less. This has been one of the “luckiest” teams in the country thus far. 

Towson is one of FIVE teams in the CAA that are rated ahead of UNCW in my own power ratings. In fact, Towson is the top CAA team in those same ratings. They’ve won 10 of 12 (both losses by 5 pts or less) and are coming off a 36-point smashing of Elon last Saturday. While UNCW was in action Monday, Towson has been off for four days. The spot favors them, they are the better team and have revenge. What’s not to like? The Tigers are also 21-8 ATS L29 road games (10-2 this year). 10* Towson

10* Portland (8:10 ET): While I don’t think that the Blazers are going to be able to match their most recent performance, which was an excellent 122-107 win (as 12-point underdogs!) at Milwaukee, the chances of them being blown out here in Memphis tonight also seem remote. This is the second game of a back to back from the Grizzlies, who were 121-109 winners last night in New Orleans thanks to holding the Pelicans to a paltry 15.4% shooting from three-point range. You’ve got to think Portland shoots better than that. Right? 

The Blazers have won three in a row, not only upsetting Milwaukee, but the Lakers and Knicks as well. HC Chauncey Billups called the win over Milwaukee “probably our best game.” Portland outrebounded Milwaukee 58-43 and got the lead up to 21 in the third quarter. That was a really impressive win for the Blazers, who reshaped the roster at the trade deadline as they look to hold on to the last play-in spot, which they currently occupy (holding a one-game lead over New Orleans). 

Memphis has an incredible first half to the season as they are 41-18 SU, the third best record in the league. I actually have them rated as the fourth best team in the conference (behind Utah), although still better than everyone from the East. I just think that this spot is not ideal, laying double digits without rest and returning home after a three-game road trip. Ja Morant is on the injury report (questionable) with an ankle. The Grizzlies have actually lost twice to the Blazers this season, once by five here at home. Take the points. 10* Portland

8* Gardner Webb (7:00 ET): I’ve got Gardner Webb rated as the best team in the Big South this year, better than either of the two division leaders: Longwood and Winthrop. Tonight’s game presents an opportunity for the “Runnin’ Bulldogs” to even up the score with Winthrop, for a two-point loss they suffered last month (they led that game by seven at halftime). A win here would also pull Gardner-Webb into a first place tie in the Big South’s South Division. So it’s a really important game and I expect the home team to deliver. 

Winthrop has a poor ATS record this season (6-15 overall), but has also managed to be one of the luckier teams in the country. The Eagles are 15-8 straight up, but have only outscored opponents by 1.5 points per game. Including the aforementioned win over Gardner-Webb, Winthrop is an extremely 8-2 SU in games decided by five points or less this season. They are 9-0 SU at home, but only 6-8 SU (3-10 ATS) when on the road or at a neutral site. 

Given all the luck in close games and the poor ATS record, you would be correct in guessing Winthrop has a pretty terrible ATS record when favored. You would be correct as the Eagles are 3-12-1 ATS in the chalk role. They are NOT favored tonight, nor should they be, as Gardner-Webb comes in hot with six consecutive victories - all by six points or greater - and they ran away with an 82-65 win over Charleston Southern on Saturday. Meanwhile, Winthrop is off another close win (65-61 over Presbyterian) and ripe to be “shown the door.” 8* Gardner Webb

8* Alabama (7:00 ET): Alabama blew the cover for me on Saturday, but at least the fans in Tuscaloosa left happy as the Crimson Tide hung on for a key 68-67 win over Arkansas. That win got the Tide back in the Top 25. For a while now, I’ve been pretty adamant that this team is better than its record and absolutely deserves not just to be ranked, but ranked higher. They have beaten three of last year’s Final Four teams (Houston, Gonzaga, Baylor) and faced the #1 strength of schedule in the entire country! 

Tonight, on ESPN2, the Tide hosts Mississippi State. This is a big revenge game as Bama lost 78-76 in Starkville last month. Alabama led that game by four at the break, held Miss St to 2 of 16 shooting from three-point range and yet still somehow lost. One thing seems to be certain though; Alabama definitely knows how to defend the three-point line when facing the Bulldogs. In the previous three head to head matchups, they’ve held them to 4 of 47 (8.5%!) from behind the arc! That’s insane. 

At the same time, as I’ve said before, Alabama’s own three-point shooting should start to improve. Somehow they are hitting just 27.1% from three at home this season. They were right around that number at Starkville last month. I just feel that Nate Oats’ team is set to go on a major run here at the end of the regular season and with Kentucky (on the road) looming, the Tide can’t afford a letdown here. They led Arkansas by as many as 13 in the second half Saturday. Look for the win and cover this time. 8* Alabama

8* UMass (7:00 ET): I think that this is a great spot to fade St. Bonaventure, who is coming off B2B big wins over St. Louis. I had the Bonnies on Friday when they went to St. Louis and recorded a 68-61 win as an underdog. Then they beat the Billikens 83-79 at home on Monday (as two-point favorites). A third game in six days, laying double digits, seems like a pretty rough spot for the Bonnies, so I’ll play accordingly and take the points. 

UMass was able to pull out a two-point victory over St. Joe’s on Saturday. Unfortunately, they just missed out on the covering as they were three-point favorites. Two late free throws sealed the game. Honestly, the Minutemen should just be thrilled that they won considering second leading scorer Rich Kelly was held to only three points. It was also a nice bounce back after losing outright, as eight-point chalk, to GW the previous game. 

There’s a gap between the top six and everyone else in the A-10 and these teams are on opposite sides. But UMass has the scheduling edge coming into this game having not played since Saturday. The Minutemen have actually won their last two road games, beating LaSalle and Rhode Island.I can’t see the Bonnies matching their shooting from the last two games vs. St. Louis (they were close to 52% overall) and it’s worrisome they just allowed the Billikens to make 56.8% from the field on Monday. 8* UMass

8* Over Clippers/Suns (10:00 ET): So the Clippers sure proved me wrong last night, defeating the Warriors as six-point underdogs (at home), 119-104. They shot an incredible 56.5% from the floor against the league’s most efficient defense. While they probably aren’t reaching those heights tonight, in a tough spot vs. Phoenix, any offensive regression should be “canceled out” by some defensive regression, this being the second night of a back to back. Stopping the Suns, who have topped 130 points in each of the last two games, will be tough. 

Steph Curry had his way with this Clippers defense in the first half last night, scoring 26 points. Curry and his teammates then cooled off considerably in the second half. The rest of the team shot just 41.2%. I don’t think the Clippers will be able to do that to the Suns. While their defense has improved somewhat, LA still allowed both Milwaukee and Memphis to score more than 130 recently. Phoenix has the second most efficient offense in all of basketball.

In each of these teams’ last seven games, the Over is 6-1. Again, with tired legs, defending the Suns is likely going to be a problem tonight for the Clippers. Keep in mind that right before beating the Warriors, they allowed Luka Doncic to score nearly 100 points by himself in two games against them. On the flip side, with the All-Star Break approaching, we may not see the same defensive intensity here from the Suns. The Clippers have scored at least 109 points in 10 of their last 11 games. That would be more than enough for another Over here. 8* Over Clippers/Suns

10* Indiana (9:00 ET): I successfully faded Wisconsin over the weekend and will look to do the same again tonight. As I said before Saturday’s game vs. Rutgers, I don’t think the Badgers are quite Top 25 worthy, let alone Top 15. Despite being off to their best start in five years (19-5 SU overall) and just one game off the lead in the Big 10 title race, my power ratings have them as the EIGHTH best team in the conference. One of the seven above them is tonight’s opponent and - given the line - it looks like the oddsmakers agree. 

Indiana is three games back of Wisconsin, both in terms of overall and conference record. But, even at home, it speaks volumes that they are favorites over the #15 ranked team in the country. That’s even on a three-game losing streak. Saturday saw the Hoosiers lose up at Michigan State, 76-61 as four-point dogs. They did not shoot the basketball well (33.9% overall from the field). But this is a much different team at home where they are 13-2 SU and shooting 47.1% 

Also key here is that IU is holding the opposition to a 36.3 FG% when playing here in Bloomington. Honestly, that’s not far off from their overall season average as this is a top 20 team in adjusted defensive efficiency. Wisconsin is a top 10 team in the “luck” rating over at KenPom as they are an incredibly fortunate 11-1 SU in games decided by six points or less. I believe the Badgers’ luck will “run out” down the stretch. At home and on a three-game losing streak, you KNOW that Indiana is going to be highly motivated tonight. 10* Indiana

10* Under Hornets/T’wolves (8:10 ET): I realize that “all signs” point to the Over in this matchup, but it’s the highest O/U line of the season in the NBA and I’m going Under. Minnesota has been on a simply incredible run of Overs lately with that particular bet hitting in 16 of their last 19 contests. Eventually though, that run must subside. Why not at home where their games “only” average 214.4 PPG, which is well down from their overall season average of 225.0 PPG? 

While Minnesota has been surging as of late, Charlotte is heading in the opposite direction. They have dropped seven of eight and in the last game trailed 74-43 at the half. That was at home. The Hornets did defeat the T’wolves back in November, 133-115, but they shot a blistering 55.7% from the floor in that game, including 23 of 40 from three-point range. Those numbers will not be repeated tonight. Before their last two games both went Over, Charlotte was on a run of six straight Unders. The Under is also 6-0 this year when they are on exactly two days’ rest (as they are here). 

As I mentioned, Charlotte has lost seven of eight. In the one win, which was against the moribund Pistons, they scored 141 and shot 55.7%. But in the seven losses, they have shot no better than 42.6% from the floor. I get why this total is so high, but again, it’s the highest O/U line for any NBA game this season and very reactionary towards recent results. Even giving up the most PPG in the Eastern Conference, Hornets’ games “only” average 228.4 PPG. There’s value here on the Under. 10* Under Hornets/T’wolves

10* Golden State (10:40 ET): The Warriors appeared to be headed for a third straight defeat on Saturday. They trailed the Lakers by six with 3:47 to play, but then Klay Thompson took over and ended up with a season-high 33 points. It was a 117-115 win for the Dubs, but they have still failed to cover five in a row, a streak that includes outright losses to the Jazz and Knicks. I expect a strong effort tonight against a Clippers team that just isn’t very good. Lay the points. 

The Clippers also won by two points on Saturday, outlasting Dallas 99-97, despite 45 points from Luka Doncic. Doncic had 51 when the teams played on Thursday. That game was won by the Mavericks 112-105. The two games prior saw the Clips surrender 135+ points. They currently sit eighth in the West and I don’t see any upward mobility for them. Not as long as Paul George and Kawhi Leonard both remain out. 

These teams have not met since November. Golden State has won both meetings this year, by two at home and by 15 on the road. I’m not all concerned about the five-game ATS losing streak as the Warriors had won nine in a row before that. They are #2 overall in my power rankings (only trailing Phoenix) and continue to play great defense (#1 in efficiency). The Clippers just don’t have enough answers offensively to keep pace. 10* Golden State

8* Oklahoma State (9:00 ET): Kansas figures to move up a spot or two in the polls when they are released later today. Currently ranked #8 in the country, that sounds about right for Bill Self’s team. It was a narrow escape vs. Oklahoma on Saturday, a two point win as 10.5-point favorites. The Jayhawks trailed for much of the game before a 15-2 second half run gave them the lead for good. Still, this team is only 2-6 ATS its last eight games and was a SU loser last Monday (at Texas). I’m taking the points here. 

Oklahoma State rolled to an impressive win on Saturday by blowing out West Virginia 81-58. While that was just the second win over the last seven games for the Cowboys, four of the five losses were by five points or less. It’s been a tough season in Stillwater, with a self-imposed NCAA Tournament ban. But playing on national television tonight should lead to an inspired effort, especially off the big win. 

The last time these teams played (Jan 4) Kansas won 74-63 despite missing 19 consecutive shots at one point. It was a tie game going into halftime. With OSU holding teams to just 40% shooting for the year, I think they still in this one from start to finish. Kansas is 0-4 ATS this season when playing with just one day of rest in between games. 8* Oklahoma State

10* Alabama State (9:00 ET): I’ve won by going against Mississippi Valley State before and now seems like a good time to do it again. The Delta Devils, just 1-21 SU on the season, have surprisingly covered three in a row. That’s their longest ATS win streak of the season. They didn’t win any of the games, mind you, but lost to Jackson State by four, Alcorn State by eight and Alabama A&M by two. Their chances of staying close for a fourth straight game seem remote, given how the season has gone for them. 

Alabama State is coming off back to back losses and will be looking to rebound from getting upset 75-70 (as eight-point favorites) Saturday by Arkansas Pine-Bluff. The big difference in that game was Alabama State’s inability to take advantage of the fact they had eight more free throw attempts. Despite the B2B losses, the Hornets remain tied for second place in the SWAC’s Eastern Division. A strong close to the regular season means improved seeding for the conference tournament and this is a must win.

Alabama State won the first meeting, 84-75, thanks to shooting 53.7% from the floor. MVSU is just a disaster defensively as they give up almost 90 PPG on the road while averaging just 63.4 themselves. I have them rated as the worst team in the country. Their last game went to FOUR overtimes and that was on Saturday, so there has to be a sense of fatigue here. Lay the points. 10* Alabama State

8* William & Mary (2:00 ET): Save for Providence, I’m not sure there’s been a “luckier” team in College Basketball this season than UNC Wilmington. The current CAA leaders have been an underdog more times than they have been favored and are 9-2-1 ATS when getting points with eight outright upsets. It’s been the Seahawks’ record in close games that has really been the key, however. When the final margin is six points or less, UNCW is 9-2. That includes Saturday’s 85-79 win over Charleston. 

So the Seahawks aren’t blowing many teams out. That’s fine when you’re the underdog 50% of the time, but here they are double digit favorites for the first time in conference play. William & Mary is second to last in the Colonial, so perhaps this makes sense, but consider that it was just a few weeks ago that UNCW was actually an underdog (on the road) to the last place team (Northeastern). Things may not have gone well for W&M the first time they faced UNCW (lost by 22), but in this early start time I think they can stay within the generous number rather easily. 

Other than the win over William & Mary, UNCW has ZERO double digit wins in conference play. As I’ve stated before, there are FIVE teams in the CAA rated ahead of the Seahawks in my power ratings. Obviously, they’ve cleaned up at the betting window to this point, but this is a team to fade down the stretch. UNCW has won seven games this year where they trailed by double digits. Four of those DD deficits were overcome in the second half. I’m just not a believer. Take the points. 8* William & Mary

8* Iowa (2:00 ET): I think Iowa is better than its overall record (16-7) and certainly what they’ve done so far in the Big 10 (6-6). In fact, along with the KenPom ratings, I consider the Hawkeyes a top 20 team in the country. Out of the Big 10, only Purdue and Illinois rate higher in my own personal power ratings. This afternoon, before the Super Bowl, they’ve got a chance to shine in a spot they typically perform well in (16-4 ATS as home favorites of -12.5 or higher) and it comes against the conference’s worst team. 

Nebraska is the opponent in question here. As I just said, the Cornhuskers are off a win, their first this year in Big 10 play. The win came Wednesday, in Lincoln, 78-65 over Minnesota. That ended a 14-game regular season losing streak in conference play. But the ‘Huskers have still lost 11 in a row on the road. Yes, they have been covering spreads more often than not this year. But Iowa has just two home losses all season (Purdue, Illinois) and is outscoring visitors by 19.4 points per game. 

It was on the road that the Hawkeyes turned in their highest scoring game in Big 10 play since 1995. The game took place on Thursday when they went to Maryland and waxed the Terrapins 110-87. Iowa is a top five team in the country in offensive efficiency and averages 83.4 PPG for the year. I really sense that this game will quickly turn into a blowout. 8* Iowa

10* Tulsa (8:00 ET): It has been about as unfortunate a season as it can be for Tulsa, who carries the unfortunate distinction of having a bottom five luck rating over at KenPom. They’ve been much more competitive than their 7-15 SU record would suggest. In games decided by five points or less, they are somehow 1-9. This after losing, as seven-point favorites, to East Carolina here at home earlier in the week. The final score there was 73-71, really unfortunate as the Golden Hurricane had the halftime lead. 

But I think today is the day for Tulsa to break through. They are hosting a Cincinnati team that just isn’t as good as its been in recent years. That was evident when the Bearcats went down 80-58 at the hands of Houston last Sunday and that was at home. They did bounce back against South Florida, winning 70-59 on the road Wednesday. But Tulsa actually beat that same USF team by an even larger margin, 76-45, albeit it was at home. The Bearcats really benefited from some lousy USF three-point shooting (1 for 9) while sinking 10 of their own 21 attempts. 

This is also a revenge spot for Tulsa, who was blown out at Cincy, 90-69 back on Jan 20th. That was the Bearcats’ highest scoring game all season as they sank 55% of their 3PA. That won’t be repeated on the road where they are just 4-3 SU this season and shooting a paltry 38% overall. Meanwhile, Tulsa has covered seven consecutive times as a home dog of three points or less. Take the points here. 10* Tulsa

8* Cleveland (7:40 ET): Two teams that won last night are back in action on Saturday with Cleveland traveling to Philadelphia. The Cavs continue to be one of the most pleasant surprises in the league as they are second in the East (!) with a 35-21 record after coming back to defeat Indiana 120-113 last night. They actually trailed by 21 points early on (in the first quarter) but outscored the Pacers 32-17 in the fourth. It was the second time in three games that the Cavs erased a 20+ point deficit to beat the Pacers. 

The Sixers are 1.5 games back of the Cavs, in fifth place in the East. They beat Oklahoma City 100-87 on Friday as Joel Embiid had his 22nd consecutive game with 25+ points. A dominant third quarter was the difference against the Thunder, whom Philly held to 38.9% from the field, including 6 of 35 from three-point range. That was a much needed defensive effort as the Sixers only shot 38.7% overall themselves and were 7 of 26 from beyond the arc.

The key here is that Philly continues to be short-handed as James Harden and Paul Milsap, both acquired at the trade deadline, have not yet been cleared to play. Cleveland could be without Darius Garland (questionable), but remember they just went out and got Caris LeVert from Indiana. It had to be painful for Pacers’ fans seeing LeVert go for 22 last night. This Cavs team is pretty deep as seven players were in double figures last night. They are also #1 in the league in scoring defense. Take the points. 8* Cleveland

9* Eastern Kentucky (5:00 ET): Eastern Kentucky has been one of the unluckiest teams in the country so far this season, mainly due to a 1-6 SU record in games decided by five points or less. The one win in that scenario took triple overtime and that was a little over a week ago against Kennesaw State. Since that 3OT victory, the Colonels have lost to Liberty and Jacksonville, leaving them fourth in the Atlantic Sun’s West Division. But today they’ve got a wonderful opportunity to get on track against a team they are tied with in the standings. 

Lipscomb has lost three in a row and 8 of its last 10. Earlier in the week, they fell at Liberty 78-69, but did cover as 14-point underdogs. The Bisons really never had a shot at winning outright though. They were down 15 at the half and never seriously threatened, even though Liberty’s second leading scorer was just 2 of 11 from the field. Something else to consider with Lipscomb is that they only have seven wins over D-I teams and four of them have been by five points or less. 

So, in what’s projected to be yet another close game, I’m calling for a reversal of fortune for the road team. Both these teams do struggle to defend, but Lipscomb is worse when it comes to three-point percentage, allowing its opponents to hit 37.6%. The Bisons are just 2-8 ATS this season vs. teams that have losing records. While EKY is just 11-14 SU overall, they are the better team here and already beat Lipscomb by 14 points (86-72) last month. Look for them to make it a season sweep here. 9* Eastern Kentucky

8* Rutgers (2:00 ET): Rutgers will be looking to pull its third consecutive upset here, having previously beaten Ohio State and Michigan State. They face a Wisconsin team that I believe is overrated at #14 in the country and the Badgers are coming off a big revenge game (that they won) over Michigan State. While this game does not take place at the RAC, the Scarlet Knights should be more than “up” for a trip to Madison, a place where they’ve never won since joining the Big 10. Take the points.

Against Ohio State on Wednesday, Rutgers scored the game’s final 10 points to pull off a seemingly improbable 66-64 win. But they were dominant against Michigan State, winning that one 84-63 as a 2.5-point dog. Six of the Scarlet Knights’ last seven games have been decided by eight points or fewer, the exception being that win over Michigan State. So they don’t get blown out very often. In fact, five of Rutgers’ nine losses this season have come by three points or fewer. 

My own personal power ratings have been much lower on Wisconsin this season than the pollsters are. At 19-4, it’s the best start for the program in five years. But my power rankings still say they are a fringe Top 25 team at best. They have a very high “luck rating” (3rd in the country) over at KenPom. Though tied for the Big 10 lead, the Badgers are only the SEVENTH best team in the conference according to my power rankings! They have gone an incredibly fortunate 11-1 SU this season in games decided by six points or less. This is a potential outright upset. 8* Rutgers

8* Alabama (12:00 ET): The Crimson Tide handled their business Wednesday in Oxford, beating Ole Miss by a score of 97-83 and easily covering the 5.5-point spread. Make no mistake about it, despite the Tide having a losing record in conference play, I believe this is a Top 25 team. Joe Lunardi has them as a 5-seed in his latest edition of “Bracketology.” The reason that Bama is just 15-9 SU overall - and 5-6 vs. the SEC - is they have played the toughest schedule in the country. Note that before the win over Ole Miss, the Tide had faced Baylor, Auburn and Kentucky, all top five teams at the time. That’s also after facing (and defeating) both Houston and Gonzaga earlier in the year. 

Holding wins over three of last year’s Final Four is very impressive. But now the Tide must defeat a team that’s won nine in a row and just beat #1 Auburn, 80-76. That would be Arkansas, a team that also ought to be ranked. The Razorbacks hadn’t defeated a top ranked team since 1984 and needed overtime to do it on Tuesday. The game was in Fayetteville as well. As hot as the Hogs have been, this looks like a classic “letdown” spot for them. Four of their five losses, including the last two, have come on the road. 

Arkansas did lose to Hofstra earlier this year, remember. They’ve shot poorly in B2B games, making less than 38% overall and 25% from three-point range. I just trust Alabama to make more shots here, even though they’ve struggled from behind the arc themselves. But they shot a blistering 60% overall against Ole Miss, including 12 of 28 on threes. Other than a visit to Kentucky, I can see Nate Oats’ team running the table from now until the end of the regular season. Like I said, this is a very good team (they are #20 in my power ratings) and I think they show it on Saturday. 8* Alabama

10* Fresno State (9:30 ET): This is a huge game for Fresno State, who I believe to be better than Colorado State, but the Bulldogs currently sit 1.5 games back of the Rams in the Mountain West standings. FSU is also three games off the conference lead (currently shared by Boise State and Wyoming). At this point, it’s highly unlikely that they can make a run at finishing first, but all that matters is getting into the NCAA Tournament. Right now, FSU is considered on the “outside looking in” in that department, so a win tonight would do wonders for their resume. 

Colorado State comes in at 18-3 SU on the season. Their first loss didn’t occur until January 8th, but it was by 30 to San Diego State (I had the Aztecs there). The Rams entered last Friday’s rematch with SDSU off B2B losses, but took a huge lead only to see it wither away. In the end, they prevailed 58-57. That was followed by a commanding 82-72 win over Nevada on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Fresno State has been idle since Saturday’s narrow home defeat (61-59) to Wyoming. I’d say the situation/schedule favors the underdog tonight.

FSU has the best player in the Mountain West, Orlando Robinson, a seven-footer that averages 19 points and eight rebounds per game. But I think the real key for the Bulldogs in this matchup is on the defensive end as they rank just inside the top 25 (24th) nationally in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Colorado State is only 122nd, easily the lowest ranking of the top six MWC teams. The added rest leading into this game, plus the revenge factor (FSU is 0-6 SU/ATS L6 meetings) have me taking the points here. 10* Fresno State

8* St. Bonaventure (9:00 ET): The A-10 does not have a dominant team this season. For a brief time (one week), Davidson was ranked in the Top 25. But with six consecutive wins, Saint Louis is certainly staking its claim as the conference’s best. The Billikens have covered the number in each of the last four wins, the most recent being a 75-57 beatdown of LaSalle on Tuesday. But tonight shapes up as a much tougher game than that as St. Bonaventure comes calling, desperate to get back in the race for one of the top spots in next month’s conference tournament. 

The Bonnies have certainly underperformed for much of 2021-22. Coming into the season, they were expected to contend for the A-10 title. Currently, they are just 5-4 SU in conference play and stuck in the middle of the pack. But a 76-51 blowout win over lowly Fordham on Tuesday was a step in the right direction. The team shot very well (50% from three-point range) and also got a season-high 21 points from Dominick Webb (to go along with 10 rebounds).

I think this is a buy low spot on the Bonnies and conversely a good time to sell high on Saint Louis. While the Billikens have been racking up wins lately, most of them have come at the expense of the bottom tier of the Atlantic 10. St. Bonaventure is probably the fourth best team in the conference, at least that’s what my own power ratings say. I expect a tight battle throughout and believe an outright upset is more likely than a blowout loss for the underdog. Take the points. 8* St. Bonaventure

10* Chicago (8:10 ET): This game has the highest O/U line of the NBA season. Points are to be expected with the Timberwolves having gone Over in 11 of the last 12 games and the Bulls doing the same in seven of their last eight. But the key for me here is that the T’wolves are dealing with multiple injuries to their starting lineup, putting them at a distinct disadvantage. When they don’t have their full starting five intact, this is a much different team. 

Now obviously Chicago knows a thing or two about injuries as well. Missing Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso has really hurt the team defense, but the Bulls just turned in their best game in a while, beating Charlotte on the road, 121-109 as 1.5-point favorites. They’ve fallen out of first place in the Eastern Conference, but the Bulls still have won four of seven despite the recent defensive issues. It helps that they are fourth in the league in offensive efficiency and DeMar DeRozan has gone for 30+ points in four consecutive games. The team has shot better than 51% from the floor in six of its last nine contests. 

Minnesota is coming off a 132-119 loss at Sacramento. Six players are currently listed as questionable for tonight, including Anthony Edwards, D’Angelo Russell and Patrick Beverley. This is the Timberwolves’ third road game in four nights and it comes after playing two (both in Sacramento) on the West Coast. The T’wolves’ offense hasn’t been nearly as efficient as the Bulls and defensively they are giving up 116.5 PPG on the road this season. This looks like a spot where the home team will roll. 10* Chicago

8* Pacific (9:00 ET): For the second time in three nights, Pacific takes on a Top 25 team. They covered against USC on Tuesday, only losing by six as 19-point road underdogs. The Tigers won’t have a more challenging matchup than this one tonight as they travel up to Spokane to face Gonzaga, who is probably the best team in the country. But fortunately, Pacific doesn’t need to win here for us to cash, or really even come close to winning. All they need to do is stay within 30(ish) points.

Now it’s been a bad season at the betting window for Pacific as their 5-16 ATS mark is the third worst cover rate in the country (ahead of only Morgan State and Marshall). But, as I just said, they covered the last game against a Top 25 opponent. They’ve actually now covered three of the last five games, including a shocking outright victory over BYU. This is an insane amount of points for a team that’s losing by less than 10 PPG this season.

Now Gonzaga is obviously great and should have no problem winning here. But with a game against St. Mary’s on deck, will the Zags’ full attention really be on Pacific? Probably not. On Saturday, the Bulldogs did turn in an incredible performance, destroying BYU 90-57 in Provo. But off that game and with the #2 WCC team coming in this weekend, tonight has all the makings of a classic “letdown” spot. Gonzaga’s average margin of victory this season is around 25 PPG, but Pacific is far from the worst team they have faced. Too many points to pass up here as Gonzaga is 2-5 ATS this season laying more than 30. 8* Pacific

10* Houston (8:10 ET): These two teams certainly couldn’t be trending in more opposite directions as Toronto has won and covered seven straight while Houston is 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS its last eight games. But they don’t call the pointspread “the great equalizer” for no reason. Tonight’s game not only marks the second game of a back to back for the Raptors, it is also their third road game in four nights. Eventually this team is going to run out of “steam” and not be able to win by a significant margin. Look for that to be the case here. 

Last night saw the Raptors win in OKC, 117-98. They scored a few more than I thought they would (I played the Under), thanks to shooting 51.1% from the floor. Shooting 68.4% in the 1Q essentially handed them the game right off the bat. But I don’t think that kind of shooting can/will continue. The current win streak, and last few games in particular, have seen the Raptors shoot far above their season average. It’s also worth noting that four of the seven wins have been by six points or less, or in overtime. 

Houston just got swept in a home and home by New Orleans. Incredibly, the last seven games have all seen Rockets’ opponents shoot better than 51% from the floor. You just don’t see that very often, even from teams as low in the standings as this one. Turnovers have been a massive issue for the Rockets, but I’m going to call for a “cleaner game” here tonight and coupled with inevitable defensive improvement, taking the points in this spot seems prudent. Toronto is 8-2 ATS playing with no rest, but only winning by four points per game and while this is their third game in a row being road favorites, it’s just the fourth time ALL YEAR (the first was an outright loss in Detroit). 10* Houston

10* Georgia State (7:00 ET): The preseason favorite to win the Sun Belt, Georgia State has really languished this season. They are just 3-5 SU in conference play, which has them third from the bottom in a league with no real clear-cut favorite at this point. Those who follow the SBC may recall that it was around this time last year the Panthers had a similar conference record, then went on an eight-game win streak, taking them to the Tournament Final. Do not rule out history repeating itself here in 2022! 

The Panthers are off a win, 69-62 over South Alabama, last weekend. That was their third win in the last four games. What needs to be noted with GSU is how unlucky they have been for much of this season. They’ve lost a couple overtime games and also a one-point game to Appalachian State, the team currently in first place. One of those two OT losses was to Coastal Carolina, who the Panthers face again tonight. I smell a big win in this revenge spot as Georgia State was an atrocious 3 of 28 from three-point range in that first meeting, a performance that will certainly be improved upon here. Second leading scorer Kane Williams was 1 of 13 overall from the field in that first meeting. 

Georgia State’s shooting has been a bit of an issue all season, but like I said, you get the sense it will improve. Also, opponents cannot continue making almost 40% from three-point range against them. In this particular situation, look for a massive turnaround from the first game when Coastal Carolina shot 45.5% from behind the arc. By the way, the Chanticleers have dropped two straight coming into tonight, 69-64 at Texas State on Saturday and 73-66 to Arkansas State here at home. 10* Georgia State

10* Under Raptors/Thunder (8:10 ET): For the sixth straight time, Toronto came out ahead a winner on Monday. I had them as they won 116-101 in Charlotte. It was the second time in three games I threw my money behind the Raptors, having previously done so when they beat Chicago last Thursday. Turns out I could have backed them in any of these six games, as not only are they 6-0 straight up, but also 6-0 ATS. They’ve got to like their chances of extending the win streak to seven games as they face OKC tonight. 

This spread is a little “rich for my blood,” however there’s also no chance I back the Thunder without their leading scorer (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) against a red hot team like the Raptors. Oklahoma City is last in the league in scoring (101.0 PPG) and 29th in offensive efficiency. In three of the last five games and 6 of the last 10, they have not broken 100 points. Keep in mind that two of those games went to overtime, so only once in that 10-game stretch have they topped 103 in regulation. 

I don’t see OKC doing much offensively in this game either. The one positive for them though is that they have held their last five opponents to an average of 102.2 PPG. Toronto’s offensive numbers have gone “through the roof” during the win streak, but two of the wins required overtime. A 124-120 win in Miami went to triple overtime. The last two games have been vs. Atlanta and Charlotte, two of the worst defensive teams in the league. I sense we’re in for a fairly low-scoring battle here. 10* Under Raptors/Thunder

8* Louisville (7:00 ET): The Cardinals were a real “dud” play for me on Saturday as they got waxed up in Syracuse 92-69. They never really were in it, as the game was 43-26 at halftime and Syracuse shot the lights out, including making 9 of its first 10 field goal attempts. What was so disappointing about that (lack of) effort from the Louisville side is that the two previous games had seen them “hang tough” with Duke and North Carolina. I know it’s been “tough times” for this program of late, with a coaching change and five straight losses. But leading scorer Malik Williams is set to return (from suspension) tonight. 

Meanwhile, Notre Dame cannot possibly play any better than it did Saturday at NC State. The Fighting Irish not only shot 53% from the floor themselves, but also held the Wolfpack under 30%. It wound up being a 12-point win in Raleigh, which was ND’s second straight road win after also upsetting Miami in Coral Gables earlier last week. But this team can certainly “run hot and cold.” In their last home game, the Irish only made 27.9% from the field and lost 57-43 to Duke. That’s their only loss in the past seven games, but also make note that three of the wins were by four points or less (one of them against Howard!). 

Williams being back is huge for L’ville as not only is he the team’s leading scorer, but he is also the leading rebounder. Even without him, the Cardinals took North Carolina to overtime last week. The game vs. Duke was even with seven minutes to go. Looking at each team’s most recent game, in my view, there’s no way Louisville’s defensive numbers won’t improve while at the same time ND’s will certainly regress. Take the points here. 8* Louisville

10* Richmond (7:00 ET): The Atlantic 10 is an interesting league as there’s no dominant team and I think as many as six teams could win the Conference Tournament next month. One of those six is Richmond, who until recently was looking pretty “dead in the water.” But the Spiders have rattled off six wins in their last seven games. If not for a buzzer beater by Davidson and a couple of last minute shots by VCU, then Richmond would be entering tonight’s game vs. George Mason on a nine-game win streak. 

These teams just met Monday with Richmond prevailing 62-59 at home. They did so despite shooting below 40% for the game. I’m a little surprised how subpar the Spiders’ shooting has been for much of this season, particularly from three-point range, but there were certainly signs of “heating up” in previous wins over St. Bonaventure and Duquesne. Opponents have also shot much better than expected for much of the A-10 campaign. My view is that we’re going to see these numbers start to move in Richmond’s favor down the stretch. 

The Spiders did not cover the spread on Monday as 7.5-point favorites, but led most of the second half (were up by 10 at one point). It was a deserved win after losing five of its previous seven games decided by six points. All we need is a win here over a George Mason team that may be “mentally beaten” after three straight losses by five points or less (one in double overtime). GMU didn’t have its leading scorer (Josh Oduro) Monday because of a concussion and he is questionable here. Regardless, I like Richmond to get the cash. 10* Richmond

8* UNC Asheville (6:30 ET): I took UNC Asheville last Wednesday, in a big spot, as they were a short home dog facing the #1 team in the Big South. Unfortunately, that play didn’t go as planned as the Bulldogs lost 56-48 to Longwood. Then they lost again Saturday, this time in a high-scoring game, 91-83 to High Point. That went to overtime. Most of this team’s decisions have come down to the wire in conference play. They’ve played three overtime games and lost two of them, plus there have been two other losses by a combined three points. The eight-point defeat to Longwood last week actually represents Asheville’s worst margin of defeat in conference play, for a game ending in regulation. 

Now they’ve also won a few close ones too. Their last win, which was on 1/29, came by a single point over Presbyterian. So all but ONE of the Bulldogs’ 10 conference games have been decided by eight points or less. The exception was an 82-59 win over Charleston Southern, back on Jan 8th. I expect tonight’s game, against a weak Hampton team, to go like that one did. Hampton, who has yet to be favored in a single Big South game this year, is off an upset win over Presbyterian on Monday. 

That win over Presbyterian came at home. Now on the road, playing for the second time in three days, it’s tough to see Hampton competing tonight. The Pirates are 1-4 SU/ATS with just one day of rest between games this season, while being outscored by double digits. They also haven’t won B2B games since early December and have just two road wins all year. Averaging only 58.4 PPG away from home this year isn’t an encouraging sign either. Hampton is a horrible three-point shooting team (28% for the year!) and UNC Asheville holds teams to 27.6% (for the year!) from behind the arc. This is a classic “get well game” for the home team. 8* UNC Asheville

8* UNLV (10:00 ET): The Runnin’ Rebels are off an ugly 90-75 road loss where they let Utah State shoot 64% from the field. But this is a MUCH different team at home where they are 11-4 SU on the season. Their only two home losses in conference play came to a couple of the Mountain West’s “big boys” - San Diego State and Fresno State. It’s a much weaker opponent coming to the Thomas & Mack Center on Tuesday and the Rebels actually have revenge for a 69-62 loss in Colorado Springs earlier this year. 

Air Force is coming off TWO straight games where they didn't play any defense. They too let Utah State shoot north of 60% and then on Saturday, at home, they let New Mexico score 91 points on 58.9% shooting. Such a lack of defense is a real problem when you only average 60 PPG like the Flyboys do. The first game vs. UNLV, where they finished with 69 points, was the AFA’s highest scoring game of the conference slate. They shot 50% at home and it also helped that the Rebels were only 4 of 15 from three-point range. 

I don’t see those kinds of percentages existing again in tonight’s rematch, so expect a big UNLV win. Defensively, the Rebels are only allowing 62.5 PPG at home. This is a team that recently went to Colorado State and won 88-74 as a 15-point dog. Leading scorer Bryce Hamilton has been on a real roll of late, scoring 30+ points in four of the last six games. Air Force simply lacks the firepower to come into Vegas and compete. They’ve lost 28 of the L30 games here. Lay the points. 8* UNLV

analysis soon

10* Ohio (7:00 ET): This is the biggest regular season game in the MAC for 2021-22. Ohio is 10-1 in conference play while Toledo is 10-2. The conference leading Bobcats’ only loss to a MAC team this season came on January 21st, at home, and it was 87-69 to Toledo. The Rockets shot a blistering 59% that day in Athens. It is Ohio’s only home loss of the season and only loss period since Dec 1. Now they get a chance at revenge and can hand Toledo’s its first home loss. I’m taking the points in this one. 

Other than Toledo, the only other teams to defeat Ohio this season are LSU and Kentucky. So this is a very talented team. Since the loss to Toledo, the Bobcats have won five in a row, all by double digits. I love the idea of the better team, playing with revenge, getting points. A win here obviously gives the Bobcats a two-game cushion, but a loss would all but hand Toledo the regular season championship. So, like I said, this is a huge game for both teams. Ohio is 6-2 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss.

While Ohio is coming off three home wins in a five-day span, Toledo was upset on Friday, losing 93-83 at Ball State as nine-point favorites. That ended the Rockets’ nine-game SU and ATS win streak. They trailed by as many as 20 in the 1H. For this game, not only do I NOT think Toledo will be able to match its torrid shooting from the previous meeting, but you should look for Ohio to shoot a lot better from three-point range. In that first meeting, the Bobcats were just 8 of 29 (27.6%) on threes and for the season teams are shooting just 30.3% from behind the arc against Toledo. That’s pretty preposterous. 10* Ohio

8* Miami OH (7:00 ET): While the MAC will see its top two teams (Ohio and Toledo) battle on Tuesday, we’ve also got this matchup of the two bottom teams in the conference standings. There’s really no sugarcoating how miserable this season has been for both Western Michigan and Miami Ohio. The former is 4-19 straight up and has not won a game since 12/17 against Aquinas (non-board team). That’s 13 straight losses for the Broncos, who have only two wins against D-I opponents all season.

Meanwhile, despite losing five a row, Miami has been a bit better than WMU. They have three MAC wins. But the RedHawks’ problem has been the betting window where they have not covered a single game since the conference opener, 12/29 vs. Buffalo! It’s a 10-game ATS losing streak entering Tuesday. I can’t remember the last time I saw a drought longer than that. You might be wondering, given Miami’s ATS skid, how I could possibly consider laying this many points. Well, Western Michigan is just that bad. 

Miami won the first meeting 70-62, but (obviously) did not cover. They were 10-point favorites on the road. But we’re actually getting a GREAT number with them here at home as the line is basically unchanged (from the first meeting) despite the change in venue. Western Michigan has not won a single road game all season, losing all 11 by an average of 20.6 PPG. Miami was only 5 of 21 from three-point range in the first meeting. After B2B rough shooting games vs. Akron, the RedHawks will find their touch here against a downtrodden opponent whose L5 losses have all been by double digits. 8* Miami OH

10* Toronto (7:10 ET): Teams trending in different directions meet Monday in Charlotte. The Raptors are 5-0 SU/ATS their last five games while the Hornets are 1-4 SU/ATS. After four straight close wins, one when I took them against Chicago, the Raptors beat Atlanta 125-114 on Friday. That was their second win over a Hawks team that is 8-3 SU its last 11 games. Toronto shot 56.8% from the floor, including 17 of 27 from three-point range. They’ve climbed into the top six in the Eastern Conference standings.

Charlotte’s last two losses, to Cleveland and Miami, both occurred here at home. The Hornets held second half leads in both games, but really wilted Saturday vs. the Heat, eventually losing 104-86. Gordon Hayward was scoreless, on 0 for 7 shooting, in his second game back from an ankle injury. Let’s also not forget that Charlotte is dead last in the East in scoring defense, giving up 114.2 PPG. Thus, it’s a major concern that they are averaging just 96 PPG themselves over the last four contests.

These teams met two weeks ago, north of the border, and the Raptors won 125-113. It was another efficient offensive game as the Raptors shot 52.4% and made 16 threes. Look for them to continue to roll tonight. 10* Toronto

10* Navy (7:00 ET): I think that we’re getting a pretty good value here on the Midshipmen, who defeated Lafayette earlier this season, 69-55 as an eight-point road favorite. Having to lay an only slightly larger number with them at home, against the same opponent, seems like a steal. Now the Middies are just 2-6 ATS since beating Lafayette with four games decided by two points or less. But this is where they start to “set sail” again. They have the most conference wins (8) of any team in the Patriot League currently. 

Last week saw Lafayette win twice, but both games were at home. The Leopards were just 5-14 SU overall and 2-6 in conference play before picking up those two wins. Saturday’s victory over Bucknell went to OT and was decided on a layup with two seconds to go. Should be noted that Bucknell, who is in last place in the Patriot League, went just 8 of 19 from the free throw line in that game. Since November, Lafayette has just one road win and it came against American U, who is 6-16 SU this season. 

After suffering a shocking one-point loss to Lehigh last Wednesday, Navy bounced back with a one-point win over Loyola MD on Saturday. The team’s last three games have all been decided in the final 15 seconds and come down to the final possession. But I’m laying the points here because I expect a strong effort at the defensive end, as per usual from Navy, who allows just 60.3 PPG. Lafayette is shooting below 40% away from home this year and averaging just 61.8 points. 10* Navy

8* Virginia (7:00 ET): Duke is coming off a huge win, 87-67 over North Carolina, which was Coach K’s final trip to Chapel Hill. We know the Blue Devils are good, but by the time this game tips off (and the new rankings are out), I suspect they’ll be ranked a little higher than where I have them. The ACC is not particularly strong this year, as no other team in the conference is even ranked. But look out for Virginia in this spot as the Hoos have posted B2B wins and held three of their last four opponents under 60 points. 

This is clearly a “flat” spot for Duke, who just waxed its rival by 20 points on national television. Something to take note of with the Blue Devils is how poorly teams have shot against them. Opponents are hitting just 30% from three-point range and while some of the credit has to go to their length on the perimeter, a lot of these missed shots have been open looks. On the flip side, Duke just shot almost 58% against UNC. I just think these ridiculous shooting numbers are due for a “correction.” 

Virginia just shot 60% in an impressive double digit victory over Miami on Saturday. They won 71-58 despite allowing the ‘Canes to shoot 54%. As per usual, Tony Bennett’s team is playing very slow. They are dead last in the country in adjusted tempo, which is a great way to keep favored Duke in check here and limit the offensive damage. Five of the last seven Virginia-Duke games have been decided by two points or less. The underdog is on a 23-8-1 ATS run in this ACC rivalry. 8* Virginia

8* Hofstra (5:00 ET): UNC Wilmington has been one of the most surprising - and luckiest - teams in all of College Basketball this season. The Seahawks, despite recently taking their first conference loss, still lead the CAA with a 10-1 record. But they’ve gotten to the summit with a lot of “smoke and mirrors.” Prior to shooting almost 62% from the field against hapless William & Mary on Saturday, the Seahawks’ previous 12 wins over D-I competition had all been by eight points or fewer. Two of the wins required overtime while two others were by a combined three points. 

It’s not like UNC Wilmington is racing out to big leads and holding on either. Incredibly, they have trailed by double digits in NINE of their 14 wins over D-I opponents this year! That is preposterous. One of those nine occasions came against tonight’s opponent, Hofstra, who built a 15-point first half lead (on the road!) back on 1/29, only to lose 78-72 as a four-point favorite. The Pride only made 3 of 18 three-point attempts that day while UNCW was 10 of 27.

Hofstra is one of FIVE CAA teams rated higher than UNCW over at KenPom. Incredibly, neither the KenPom ratings nor my own consider the Seahawks a top 200 team in the country right now! The performance they turned in Saturday vs. W&M was NOT the norm. Last Thursday, they were beaten by 13 at Elon. Another area where UNCW has been extremely fortunate is free throws. Opponents are shooting just 68.8% from the charity stripe this season! Well, Hofstra is 80.7% there. The home team has had this one circled for two weeks. Lay the points. 8* Hofstra

10* Fresno State (7:00 ET): The Mountain West is a fairly strong league this season as you’ve got six quality teams, four of which are currently projected to be in the NCAA Tournament. Fresno State is currently on the WRONG side of the “bubble,” despite having the fourth best record in the conference. The Bulldogs are playing well right now as they’re off B2B blowout victories (by 30 and 17) and getting this key matchup vs. second place Wyoming at home is pretty huge. I’m laying the short number. 

When analyzing the top six in the MWC, what separates some from the herd is defense. Three of these teams are 24th or better in adjusted defensive efficiency and FSU is one of those three. (San Diego State and Boise State are actually both in the top seven with SDSU #1!). The Bulldogs are giving up only 57.5 PPG on the season and 54.5 at home (where they are 11-1 SU). In terms of scoring defense, FSU is top five NATIONALLY. They just don’t give up many points and I think that trend will continue tonight. 

Wyoming is only 108th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Right now, the Cowboys are running neck and neck with Boise State for first place (two back in the win column), but KenPom actually has Fresno State rated higher. The Pokes are coming off two huge wins, both at home, over Colorado State and Boise State. This feels like a letdown spot for them and the “glacial” pace at which Fresno plays at (third slowest in the country!) will give the road team problems in this one. Wyoming could easily be 0-4 in conference road games as both SU wins were by two points each. 10* Fresno State

10* Under Celtics/Magic (6:10 ET): Orlando, who has the worst record in the league, has seen a recent surge in scoring, both at the offensive and defensive ends of the floor. The team’s last five games have all gone Over the total. They’ve allowed an average of 118 PPG during this stretch, including 135 yesterday to Memphis, but it’s also been five straight games of them scoring 110+ points, which is rather abnormal for a team that’s 28th in the league at 103.3 PPG for the season. 

So what I’m saying is you should expect the Magic to start scoring less. Let’s start here, the second game of a back to back, a situation that sees them average only 100 PPG. They are facing a Boston team that’s won four in a row and six of its last seven. In five of those six wins, the Celtics have held their opponent below the century mark. In a previous visit to Orlando, which was pretty early in the season, the Celtics came here and won 92-79, holding the Magic to 32.1% shooting, including 9 of 43 from three-point range.

Boston’s four-game win streak is a season-high as they are now in 8th place in the Eastern Conference. They are actually tied for the fourth best point differential, so I’d expect them to continue climbing. This is a bit of a “tricky” spot though, as it’s an easy game to overlook with Brooklyn on deck. The Under is 4-0 in the Celtics’ last four road games as well as 6-1 their L7 games overall. It’s 7-0 when they are on the road and facing an opponent with a home winning percentage of less than .400. 10* Under Celtics/Magic

8* Philadelphia (3:40 ET): The 76ers have lost two in a row. These losses leave them fifth in the East, but only two games out of first. Tied for first (with Miami) is Chicago, but I’m not banking on the Bulls finishing atop the heap. Five teams, the Sixers among them, have better point differentials over the course of the season. You may recall that just recently (Thursday), I played against the Bulls when they went to Toronto. They lost there, 127-120 in overtime, as a 4.5-point dog. It was impressive that they were able to bounce back the following night and beat the Pacers 122-115 on the road. But I see a downturn coming. 

Five of the last six games have seen Chicago shoot better than 51% from the floor. That’s quite the stretch of hot shooting and in my view, it’s likely to subside. Something to take note of is the Bulls are tied for 19th in defensive efficiency and give up 109.7 points per game. So it’s been imperative that they shoot as well as they have. But if the hot shooting starts to curtail, then the lack of defense probably means trouble. Case in point; they’ve shot poorly in two losses to Philly this season. 

The last time these teams met was back in November, but the Bulls made only 40.2% of their FG attempts and lost 114-105 here at home. They also lost 103-98 in Philly two days prior. In the two losses, they’ve gone just 13 of 50 from three-point range. The Sixers got off to a hot start in Dallas Friday night, but scored only 35 points in the 2H, mostly facing a zone. I just think the Sixers are better (notable they’re favored!), especially seeing as the Bulls will probably be short-handed. Philly has beaten Chicago nine straight times. 8* Philadelphia

8* Maryland (1:00 ET): There was a time, earlier this season, that the Terrapins found themselves in the Top 25. I didn’t necessarily agree with that, so it’s not shocking (to me) that they’ve been a bit of a “middling” team. But they should be better than 3-8 SU in the Big 10. The Terps have lost a few close ones, most recently 65-63 to Michigan State on Tuesday, that have cost them. I like this spot for them as they are getting a lot of points and Ohio State could be rusty after a week-long layoff. Take the points. 

Ohio State hasn’t played since last Sunday when they lost 81-78 at Purdue. The reason for this latest layoff was actually inclement weather, not COVID, as Thursday’s scheduled game vs. Iowa had to be postponed. Don’t be fooled by the fact the Buckeyes only lost by three at Purdue last week as they actually trailed by as many as 20 points in that one. The team is a perfect 9-0 SU here in Columbus, but their last two conference games here were both decided by single digits. I expect a slow start from OSU this afternoon. 

More often than not, Maryland is competitive. Their two losses to ranked teams have been by a total of three points. They also beat Illinois (by 16!) a couple weeks ago. I like the fact that the Terrapins lead the conference in free throws made and are second in attempts. The team has actually been better on the road than at home, at least in Big 10 play, so far. "I'm excited. We've been playing well on the road," Terrapins guard Eric Ayala said. "I'm looking forward to going out there and competing at a high level."  8* Maryland

10* Washington (7:05 ET): For the Suns and Wizards, the last month or so has gone quite differently. Phoenix has raced to the best record in the NBA at 41-10 SU while Washington has fallen off and is now three games below .500, outside the top 10 in the East. But this is a lot of points that the Wizards are getting at home tonight. They just won for us, upsetting Philadelphia on the road Wednesday, 106-103 as a 10.5-point underdog. The Suns are off their first loss in more than three weeks. This is a good spot to take the points. 

Now Washington’s only two wins since Jan 12 have both come against the Sixers. They also beat them 117-98 on Jan 17. That’s still the last time the Wizards won a home game. Let it be known though that four of their five straight losses in the Nation’s capital have been by five points or less. Bradley Beal may be out, but Kyle Kuzma stepped up with 24 points on Weds, leading five players in double figures. This team averages just over 110 PPG at home, so I’m not worried about the offense here. 

Phoenix just gave up 124 points in its loss to Atlanta Thursday. That ended an 11-game win streak. Everyone is going to be expecting the Suns to get back in the win column here, but this feels like a total “letdown” spot as they’ve got “bigger games” (at Chicago and Philadelphia) on deck. When these teams met earlier this year, Phoenix was favored by only nine at home. I believe the home dog will play surprisingly well in this spot. 10* Washington.

10* McNeese (5:00 ET): Gonna try again with McNeese (State), who let me down Thursday when they lost 83-78 to SE Louisiana. That was the Cowboys’ third straight loss, all of them coming at home, leaving them with a 8-15 SU record and way off the pace in the Southland. But this afternoon they’ll face a Northwestern State team that is due for a “nosedive” after winning its last three games, including a shocking performance Thursday where they shot 61.1% on the road. Lay the points in this one. 

There’s usually a lot of points when Northwestern State takes the floor. The Demons are off B2B 90+ point efforts, but what was so shocking about the last one wasn’t just the ridiculous shooting, it’s that they were previously 1-14 SU away from home. Therefore, it’s very difficult for me to envision them winning two road games in a three-day span. Defensively, the Demons are a disaster as they give up 80.7 PPG for the year and 85.9 when playing away from home. Thursday was actually their first “true” road win of the year; previously their only SU win away from home was a neutral site game vs. Incarnate Word.

McNeese has allowed 80+ points in each of the L3 games, but I expect them to score a lot tonight against this soft Northwestern State defense that is 347th nationally (out of 358 teams) in efficiency. Northwestern State made a season-high 17 three-pointers in their last game, so look for regression there, especially with McNeese likely to defend the arc better than they did vs. SE Louisiana. With the next four games all on the road, this is a MUST win for McNeese. 10* McNeese

8* Michigan (2:30 ET): The Wolverines, who were once ranked as high as #4 in the country, are in dire need of a big win to bolster their resume. Juwan Howard’s team is currently 11-8 SU and 7th in the Big 10. The Big 10 is a loaded conference mind you, and I still consider the Maize and Blue among the top 30 in the country. Beating Purdue, the current #4 ranked team in the country, is precisely the win that Michigan needs right now. Not sure they can pull off the outright upset Saturday, but I’m definitely taking the points.

Purdue has won four in a row and will be facing Illinois (probably the Big 10’s second best team) on Tuesday. So they may not be taking their opponents all that seriously. If there is a “hole” in the Boilermakers’ resume, it is the fact they rank 91st in the country in defensive efficiency. Among teams in the KenPom Top 25, that’s easily the worst, with the exception of Iowa, who you’ll note is not in the “actual” Top 25 (AP/Coaches). I’m also not convinced the Boilermakers can continue their recent hot shooting. They made 55.6% against Minnesota and 61.2% at Iowa. 

Michigan has a top 20 offense in terms of efficiency and has some proverbial “momentum” after scoring the last six points of the game to defeat Nebraska 85-79 on Tuesday. That was a game where the Wolverines were down seven points at halftime and their season was very much “on the brink.” Note they have won in West Lafayette each of the last two seasons and are 8-0-1 ATS the L9 meetings overall. Purdue has not beaten Michigan since 2018! This is just the fourth time this season that Michigan has been a dog. 8* Michigan

8* Louisville (2:00 ET): It’s obviously been a very frustrating season for Louisville, who has already made a coaching change (fired Chris Mack) and continues to come up short in heart-breaking fashion. The last two games have seen the Cardinals go 0-2 ATS, despite being tied with Duke with seven minutes left in regulation and going to overtime against North Carolina. That leaves them an awful 1-10-1 ATS their L12 games, but the improved effort we’ve seen (since the coaching change) should continue here. 

Syracuse has put together a couple of high-scoring wins over the last week, beating Wake Forest and NC State. But it is highly unlikely that the Orange can continue shooting as well as they did in those two victories. They made 57.1% from the field against Wake Forest, then topped that with 59.3% against NC State. In the two games prior, the Orange averaged just 55 points in losses to Duke and Pitt. Now those losses were both on the road, but even at the Carrier Dome, the ‘Cuse won’t be able to match the three-point shooting of the last two games. 

Jim Boeheim’s team has made 21 of its last 38 3PA, which is pretty insane and simply not sustainable. Factoring in the likely offensive regression, and the fact the Orange simply aren’t that good defensively, this is a great spot to take the points. Syracuse ranks 237th in defensive efficiency (per KenPom), which is just horrible, and they give up 75.5 PPG. Look for the shots to start falling for L’ville, who has three players that shoot 36% or better from three-point range. 8* Louisville

8* Tulsa (2:00 ET): It’s been a tough season for Frank Haith and Tulsa, who are just 7-13 SU overall and 1-8 in conference play, leaving them last in the American. But the Golden Hurricane have been really unlucky, losing eight of their nine games that were decided by five points or less and opponents seemingly can’t miss from three-point range against them (37.7%!) But I like them here, getting points in a revenge spot, against a Temple team that’s had a lot of luck go its way. Time for a reversal of fortune. 

Temple has won five of six coming into Saturday, however four of those wins were by five points or less. The largest margin of victory during this run came last time out when the Owls beat East Carolina 71-63. This is a rare time that the Owls are favored; the last time they were chalk was against ECU on Jan 8 and they failed to cover the four point spread (won by three). Tulsa went off as a 3.5-point favorite in the first meeting, a game where Temple got a career-high 24 points from Nick Jourdain. My feeling is that this is a rare opportunity to fade a lucky team laying points. 

Since losing to Temple, Tulsa has lost by two to Houston (a very good team) and by two to Memphis (blew a 15-point lead). The Golden Hurricane are certainly better than their record and should shoot better here than they did at. Wichita State on Tuesday. There, they scored a season-low 18 points in the second half. They made only 6 of 23 from behind the arc in the first meeting with Temple, yet led by five in the second half. This team is due! Take the points. 8* Tulsa

8* Over Mercer/Chattanooga (12:00 ET): Chattanooga’s 80-72 loss to Samford earlier in the week (as 7-point favorites) dropped the Mocs out of first place in the SoCon, leaving them a half game back of Furman. They look to bounce back Saturday, at home, against third place Mercer. We’ve seen six straight games from Chattanooga with 71-78 points. That’s very consistent. They also come into Saturday averaging 80.0 PPG at home for the year. Leading scorer Malachi Smith struggled in the last game, but should bounce back here. 

Mercer has been far less consistent this year, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. The Bears are third worst in the SoCon in terms of defensive efficiency, ranking 276th nationally. That’s not good. I expect the Bears to really struggle to defend here against a team that’s making 39% of its three-point attempts at home. I realize that the last seven Mercer games have all stayed Under the total, but 12 of the previous 14 meetings with Chattanooga have gone Over. 

Smith is averaging 20.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game this season. Off a loss, he averages 26.5 points and 8.5 rebounds. In the loss to Samford, Smith only attempted ONE free throw and was 4 of 12 from the field. So, as I said earlier, look for a bounce back game from him this afternoon. Mercer has size issues and going against a Mocs team that has an excellent offensive rebounding percentage likely means trouble. I do think Mercer will put up a surprising number of points here as well. 8* Over Mercer/Chattanooga

8* Oklahoma City (10:10 ET): The Thunder obviously aren’t a very good team, but they are pesky. An underdog in all but two games this season, they have a 32-17 ATS record. That’s the top cover rate in the league. Despite not having leading scorer Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, the team has won its last two games - upsetting Portland and Dallas. It’s another matchup with Portland tonight, and don’t fall for the revenge angle. The Blazers are also not a very good team and are missing their top scorer (Damian Lillard).

It was a 98-81 OKC victory when these teams met Monday. Portland was playing the second night of a back to back after losing 130-118 in Chicago Sunday afternoon. They scored just 50 points over the final three quarters in the loss to the Thunder. Offense was again an issue on Wednesday (another time I played against them) when they fell 99-94 to the LeBron-less Lakers. Once again, in three of the four quarters, the Blazers were held to 22 points or less. This isn’t a good defensive team either; they rank bottom five in the league in points allowed. 

The loss to the Lakers also dropped Portland to 2-8 ATS this season following a game where they allowed fewer than 100 points. They’re back in that same situation again here. This spread is just too high for a team that’s being outscored by four points per game this season. Oklahoma City is 16-9 ATS on the road and 9-4 ATS when coming off a SU win as a dog. Luguentz Dort has averaged 25 points over the L3 games, filling in nicely for Alexander. 8* Oklahoma City

10* Under Bulls/Pacers (7:10 ET): So the Bulls have now gone Over in four straight games. The Pacers have gone Over in six straight games. Looking at these recent results, for both teams, there’s a clear surge in the number of points being scored & allowed vs. season averages. For a frame of reference, Bulls’ games have averaged 221.1 total points this season. That number has jumped to 240.6 over the L5 games! For Indiana, the season average is 220 pts on the nose, but 243.8 over the L5 games. 

Now I played against Chicago last night and that proved to be a winning move. They lost 127-120 up in Toronto, in OT, a brutal result as the Raptors tied the game with 0.7 seconds remaining in regulation. The Bulls did trail most of the game (by as many as 11). Obviously, the game going to overtime skews the final point total. The previous four games all saw Chicago shoot 51% or better from the floor. Can’t see that continuing. They were down to 47.8% last night. Zach LaVine, the team’s second leading scorer (24.7 PPG) could be rested tonight. The team is already without Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. 

The Pacers also have a number of players out, including Sabonis, Brogden, Turner, Bitadze and Brissett. So I’m not sure where the points will come from tonight. As of this writing, this is the highest O/U line for any Indiana game this season. They are 3-0 Under against the Bulls so far in 2021-22 and none of the three games saw more than 218 total points scored. This number is an overreaction to the abnormal amount of scoring we’ve seen from both teams recently. 10* Under Bulls/Pacers

10* Over Fairfield/Monmouth (7:00 ET): These teams met two weeks ago and it was a low-scoring game. Monmouth won 61-58, just barely covering the 2.5-point spread. Examining the Hawks’ results this season, one thing that jumps out to me is they score a lot more at home. They are averaging 76.6 PPG in their own gym, as opposed to just 67.3 elsewhere. The disparity became even more pronounced in January when they failed to top 62 (points) in any of their three road games. But they scored 85, 78, 72 and 69 in the four at home. 

With this being a home game, I expect Monmouth to put up a lot more points than they did the first time against Fairfield. The team’s last three games, all here at home, have been remarkably consistent with 140, 139 and 139 total points scored. This is among the lowest O/U lines set for one of their games all season. Only the last one, a 70-69 loss to Niagara (as 8-point chalk) was lower. That game went Over despite the Hawks only shooting 30% from the field. They’ll certainly shoot better than that tonight. 

Fairfield’s home vs. road splits are pretty consistent. Their games average almost 140 PPG, no matter where they’re at. The Stags’ two games since the loss to Monmouth both went Over as they beat Marist 69-66 and Rider 76-65 on the road. Of their last five games, the only one that would NOT have gone Over the current O/U line for this game was the one against Monmouth. The total for that game closed at 139.5, so I see value here. 10* Over Fairfield/Monmouth

10* Sacramento (10:10 ET): Though it’s the second game of a back to back and they’re facing the Warriors, I’m taking the Kings plus the points here. Last night, they defeated Brooklyn, at home, by a score of 112-101. While the Nets didn’t have Kevin Durant, both Kyrie Irving and James Harden suited up for them. The Kings didn’t have their leading scorer (De’Aaron Fox) or Marvin Bagley III in the lineup. So I’d say that was a pretty impressive win for them!

Golden State was very lucky to beat San Antonio on Tuesday. They sat virtually half the roster and were down 17 in the third quarter. Somehow, they pulled off an improbable rally to win 124-120. It was the seventh straight win for the Warriors, however note that four of those have been by four points or fewer. Though Curry, Thompson and Wiggins are all expected to play tonight, several other contributors (including Draymond Green) remain out. Knowing they have the next three days off, the Dubs may not give this one their full attention. 

Sacramento is desperate to make the playoffs this year, even if it’s simply a play-in game. They have the longest active postseason drought in the league. Before beating the Nets last night, the Kings had lost seven in a row and 12 of 14. They can’t afford another bad performance. Do I think they win this game outright? Probably not. But I do see them keeping it close as the Warriors are 1-4 ATS coming off a win where they were the underdog. 10* Sacramento

10* McNeese (8:30 ET): So McNeese is in dire need of a win here after two straight losses, both here at home. The Cowboys had the halftime advantage Saturday against New Orleans, the team that leads the Southland Conference. But they couldn’t hold on, surrendering 46 points in the second half. That was a tough loss as McNeese allowed UNO to hit three three-pointers the entire game. But the Privateers were 25 of 28 from the free throw line. I can’t see McNeese dropping a third straight game at home. 

Especially not with the revenge angle in play here. The Cowboys lost to SE Louisiana 83-78, back on January 7th. That was a unique situation as both teams were in the midst of playing three days in a row and it was a neutral site game. SE Louisiana shot 50% overall and 13 of 23 from three-point range, a performance I can’t see them duplicating tonight as the Lions are just 2-8 SU in “true” road games. Then there is the matter that they are allowing nearly 80 PPG away from home this season. 

SE Louisiana enters this rematch off a 78-68 home win over Incarnate Word. That’s the worst team in the conference. They were down a point at halftime and needed a career-day (29 points) from Keon Clergeot to pull out the victory. Also, playing at home, the Lions enjoyed a massive edge in free throw attempts (+24). I really like how the situation sets up here for McNeese, who should be extremely motivated tonight. 10* McNeese

8* Toronto (7:40 ET): The Raptors have some scores to settle tonight. They’ve lost to the Bulls twice this season, 111-108 (here at home) back in October and 111-105 last week in Chicago. But since that second loss to the Bulls, Toronto has rattled off three straight impressive victories, including 110-106 over Miami on Tuesday. Yes, the Raptors certainly appeared to take advantage of the fact Miami was playing for a fourth time in five nights. But Gary Trent Jr has been a “man on a mission,” scoring 30+ points in each of the last five games (had 33 vs. the Heat). 

Toronto is now eighth in the Eastern Conference. Like the six teams ahead of them, they are chasing the Bulls, who lead the conference with a 32-18 overall record. But I don’t see Chicago holding onto that top spot for much longer. They are actually sixth in the East in point differential. The Bulls have shot incredibly well each of the L4 games (54.8%, 52.3%, 55.6% and 51.1%). But I’m not sure they can count on that hot shooting to continue. The Raptors are pretty solid defensively, at least at home where they allow just 104.5 PPG. 

The last time these teams met, Toronto was in the second night of a back to back. This time, they have rest and are at home. The Bulls have given up more points than they’ve allowed on the road this year and the last time they played on the road, they gave up 130 to the Spurs. Going back to the start of December, they have just ONE road win by more than four points. The Raptors are 8-2 ATS their L10 games as a home favorite. 8* Toronto

8* Under Heat/Spurs (8:40 ET): Miami has now gone Over in six consecutive contests following Tuesday’s 110-106 loss up in Toronto. This feels like a streak that’s “due” to end and I also can’t see San Antonio shooting as well as it did (55%) two nights ago vs. Golden State. Therefore, it certainly seems as if we’ve got the “perfect recipe” for an Under tonight in the Alamo. 

The Spurs must be kicking themselves after letting ANOTHER lead slip away against the Warriors. Few teams have been less “clutch” than SA this season and what was especially painful about blowing the 17-point lead and losing Tuesday was that the Warriors were without all their star players (No Curry, Thompson, Green or Wiggins). And they (SA) shot 55% from the floor and made 16 threes! The problem was letting the Dubs sink 20 threes. I just see things being much more low-scoring here tonight. 

Part of that is Miami not being at full-strength either. The Heat have lost three in a row and averaged only 99 PPG in the last two. Kyle Lowry is expected to miss his 10th straight game tonight and Jimmy Butler is questionable as well. For the Spurs, Dejounte Murray (best player) is listed as questionable. So some key contributors MAY be sitting this one out. Regardless, look for the Heat to get back to playing defense and their parade of Overs to end. 8* Under Heat/Spurs

8* LA Lakers (10:40 ET): Just as Anthony Davis returned, the Lakers lost LeBron James. It’s been “that kind of season” in Tinseltown as the Lakers are three games below .500 and in ninth place in the Western Conference. They’d gotten back to the Mendoza line (.500) a week ago when they beat Brooklyn 106-96. But after that it’s been three straight losses where every opponent has shot better than 50%. The Hawks shot 58.3% against LA in a game that ended up being 129-121 on Sunday. 

But tonight the Lakers are back at home and I think this one should go well. The team they are facing, Portland, is a pretty horrid 7-17 SU on the road and just got beat in OKC, 98-81 as a four-point favorite. The Blazers are 2-7 straight up and 1-8 against the spread when coming off an outright loss as a favorite this season. They too are dealing with injuries. Damian Lillard is out as are Cody Zeller and Larry Nance Jr. 

The Lakers have covered each of the last four times they’ve been off an ATS loss. They did not cover against the Hawks, just missing out as 7.5-point dogs. I think Davis should have his way here against a Portland team that gives up 113.7 PPG on the road. Defensively, the Lakers should start to improve as well. It can’t get any worse than it did vs. Atlanta. The Blazers scored just 50 points over the final three quarters vs.  the Thunder, who were playing without their leading scorer. Lay the points. 8* LA Lakers

8* Under Magic/Pacers (7:10 ET): This is the second game of a back to back for Orlando, who were 126-115 losers in Chicago Tuesday night. They shot well, particularly in the first half where they made 56% of their field goal attempts. The problem is the Magic couldn’t play any defense; they allowed the Bulls to score 103 points in the first three quarters, so even a late fourth quarter rally proved futile. 

Defending Indiana should be a bit easier. As many as seven Pacers could sit this one out. Five definitely will, including leading scorer and rebounder Domantas Sabonis, who entered health and safety protocol on Monday. In addition to Sabonis, Indiana is without Brogdon, McConnell, Turner and Warren. They did score 122 pts in a win over the Clippers on Monday, but I just can’t see that happening again with all these notable absences. Monday saw the Pacers shoot 52.6% from the floor, their highest percentage in any game in over three weeks. They were also 14 of 29 from three-point range, also unlikely to be repeated here. 

Indiana, like Orlando, would like to see its defensive numbers start to improve. That should happen tonight. Over their last five games, all of which have gone Over, the Pacers have given up 126.6 PPG. This is well above their season average of 110.8 PPG. Tonight, they face a Magic team that has been scoring at a 112.6 PPG clip its last five contests, but that is well above their own season average of 102.8 PPG. For the year, Orlando is 28th in the league in scoring. The Under is 6-1 the last seven times they’ve played without rest and they average just 98.1 PPG in that situation. 8* Under Magic/Pacers

10* Washington (7:10 ET): The Wizards have been in a real “rut” of late, losing six in a row. Things have been even more disastrous at the betting window with them not only failing to cover in each of those six straight losses, but also 12 of the last 13 games overall. Perhaps we all should have seen this downfall coming; the Wizards had been winning a lot of close games early on. They actually have the third worst point differential in the Eastern Conference, ahead of only lowly Orlando and Detroit. 

But tonight the Wiz are finally getting plenty of “help” (points) from the oddsmakers and I think it’s a good time to take them. Yes, they are currently without leading scorer Bradley Beal. But for 3+ quarters, they hung with the Bucks last night, even taking the lead with just under nine minutes to go. It was a one-point game with only five minutes left, but the Wizards scored only four points after that. It was a pretty brutal ATS loss. Of course, nothing like the previous Tuesday when they blew a 35-point lead and lost to the Clippers. 

I just think it’s time for Washington to punch a winning ticket. Philadelphia may be on a five-game win streak, but only one of those wins have been by greater than 10 points and the last two have been by a combined five points. The Wizards last win came against the Sixers, by 19 points. Philly is coming off a 122-119 win over Memphis, and Joel Embiid did not play, but they are 2-7 ATS this season off a SU win as a dog. The last time in that situation was when they faced Washington! Take the points here. 10* Washington

8* UNC Asheville (6:30 ET): The Big South currently belongs to Longwood, who are 7-0 SU in conference play. The Lancers just beat the other division leader, Winthrop, on Saturday by a score of 92-88. They got a career-high 29 points from leading scorer Justin Hill, but still only covered the spread by half a point. There aren’t too many teams left with unbeaten conference records, in all of College Basketball, and this is one I expect to lose sooner rather than later. Longwood’s unbeaten run likely ends here. 

UNC Asheville looks to be the team to knock Longwood off its perch. The Bulldogs are coming off a one-point win over Presbyterian on Saturday, which got them back to .500 (4-4 SU) in conference play. It’s been a series of close calls for UNC Asheville, whose last six games have all been decided by six points or less. They are just 2-4 SU in those games. But getting the Big South’s top team, at home, should lead to some massive motivation, especially with the Bulldogs having lost three straight at home - all as favorites. 

With the exception of a blowout win over Hampton, all of Longwood’s conference wins have been close. They allowed 61 points in the second half against Winthrop, a scary sign. Also, the Lancers have a losing road record this year. Scoring drops to 71.7 PPG (on 42.7% shooting) away from home. UNC Asheville is putting up 81.9 PPG at home and we should be getting their best effort here. Defensively, they are holding teams below 40% shooting at home this year. Take the points as the Bulldogs are already 6-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. 8* UNC Asheville

10* Abilene Christian (6:00 ET): Abilene Christian is “middle of the pack” in the WAC this year with a 5-5 conference record. But while they have won each of their last three games straight up, the Wildcats continue to struggle at the betting window as they are just 1-7 ATS their last eight games. Prior to the current three-game win streak, the team had dropped five a row. But the wins have come against the bottom three teams in the WAC and now they face Chicago State, who also is very bad. It seems like a big number, but I’m laying it. 

While Chicago State may be ahead of two teams (UTRGV and Lamar) in the WAC standings and tied with Cal Baptist, I've got them rated as the worst team in the conference. The Cougars did beat Cal Baptist by two at home and then upset Lamar on the road a couple weeks ago. But that’s it for wins in conference play. The fact they were 7.5-point underdogs to Lamar should tell you what the oddsmakers think of them. Each of the Cougars’ last two games were 14-point losses and they surrendered 101 points to Utah Valley State. 

Abilene Christian has been putting up some nice point totals of late. They’ve averaged 83 PPG during the win streak and 80.9 PPG at home for the season. They only give up 59.5 PPG at home. Now some of that is skewed due to facing non-DI teams, but Chicago State is close to the bottom of the barrel when it comes to D-I.  The Wildcats have been favored in most of their WAC games and when you analyze the numbers, all signs point to a big blowout here. 10* Abilene Christian

10* St. John’s (9:00 ET): This line speaks volumes. Providence is the #15 ranked team in the country right now, but getting points from an 11-8 St. John’s team that has a losing record in Big East play. But, as has been well-documented in the past, the Friars are vastly overrated. Yes, they have an 18-2 SU record. But KenPom calls them the luckiest team in America this season (7-0 SU in games decided by five points or less) and my own power ratings don’t even consider them a top 45 team in the country!

St. John’s has already faced Providence once this year. It was when Providence was on the heels of an 88-56 loss to Marquette. The Johnnies started strong, taking a three-point lead into the break. But it was not to be as Providence rallied in the 2H for an 83-73 win and cover. A big difference in that game was that St. John’s was just 8 of 17 from the free throw line while Providence was 26 of 30. Don’t expect that discrepancy to repeat itself now that the Johnnies are the home team.

Providence’s last two wins have been by a total of five points, over Xavier and Marquette, the latter being a big revenge spot for them. It was a buzzer-beater that lifted them over Xavier and against Marquette they rallied from a six-point halftime deficit. Now it’s St. John’s that’s playing with revenge and the Red Storm are a much different team at home where they’ve gone 10-2 SU this season and averaged 83.1 PPG. Expect a much better effort at the offensive end here, than what we saw Saturday at Villanova where the Red Storm went just 4 of 21 from three-point range. Leading scorer Julian Champagne is the key and will play better here, compared to the first meeting with Providence when he finished with only 11 points on 5 of 19 shooting. 10* St. John’s

10* Under Nuggets/T’Wolves (8:10 ET): Both of these teams have been scoring a lot more than usual of late. The result of that has been plenty of Overs. Denver is 9-1 Over in its last 10 games, the lone Under taking place in a matchup with the offensively inept Pistons. Minnesota has seen the Over hit in seven of its last eight games. But I can’t see the Nuggets shooting 60% from the field again, as they did in Sunday’s 136-100 beatdown of Milwaukee. Nor can I see the T’wolves shooting 55% again, as they did in their own blowout victory on Sunday (126-106 over Utah). Time for an Under here. 

When these teams met in Denver back in December, the final score ended up being a 124-107 road win for the Timberwolves. They shot 51.1% from the floor and made 23 three-pointers. Don’t see that being duplicated tonight. Interesting to note that the O/U line is several points higher than it was for the last meeting (224.5). This despite Nikola Jokic and Minnesota’s third leading scorer, D’Angelo Russell, both being listed as questionable for tonight’s game. 

The key for the T’wolves tonight could be their defense. They are simply much more stingy at home where they allow only 104.8 PPG as opposed to 116.0 on the road. That’s a massive difference. With some key players questionable and both teams likely to cool off from behind the arc, look for this one to stay Under the total. The Under is also 8-3 in Denver’s last 11 road games. 10* Under Nuggets/T’Wolves

8* Kansas (7:00 ET): I have not been a believer in Iowa State this season. The Cyclones started the year a perfect 12-0, which was a remarkable turnaround from a 2020-21 season that saw them finish 2-22 SU. But after opening the year with 12 straight wins, ISU has since dropped five of their last nine games. Big 12 play continues to be a “bugaboo.” They’ve lost 23 of their last 26 conference games, even though two of the three wins have come in the last two games. It’s time to fade them on Tuesday. 

Kansas is the benchmark in the Big 12. But stepping outside of conference play resulted in the Jayhawks getting “smacked in the mouth” Saturday as they were beaten soundly, 80-62 by Kentucky, at Allen Fieldhouse. KU had been “living dangerously” prior to that with four of their last five wins coming by three points or less. One of those close calls was against Iowa State, 62-61. Interestingly, the Jayhawks were 13-point favorites for that game. I know this one is in Ames, but it looks like we’re getting some decent value on the chalk. 

Kentucky is simply a much better team than Iowa State, so I’m not overly concerned about what happened on Saturday. Yes, the Jayhawks have just one win by more than three points going back to January 4th. But I still consider them a Top 10 team in the country. Iowa State is not even in my Top 25, or even Top 40, so consider them overrated by the pollsters. One of the Cyclones’ Big 12 wins was in OT and another by just four over Texas Tech. They simply aren’t in Kansas’ class. 8* Kansas

8* Connecticut (6:30 ET): This looks to be a good spot to lay the points with UConn, who is on a five-game win streak and up to #17 in the latest polls. This “resurgence” by the Huskies really isn’t all that surprising; I’ve had them in the Top 20 of my own power rankings for a while now, plus it’s St. John’s, Georgetown, Butler (twice) and DePaul that they’ve beaten during this win streak. Creighton isn’t very good either though and this should be yet another UConn blowout. 

It’s a triple revenge spot for UConn here as they lost three times to the Bluejays last season, the final meeting coming in the Big East Tournament. But they’re catching “the birds” wounded here as Creighton just blew a 17-point halftime lead and lost to Xavier over the weekend. The Bluejays ended up losing by 10, so that was a 27-point swing in the second half - at home. Not good. The previous game saw them lose by 17 at Butler, also a less than inspiring result. Over its L3 games, Creighton has averaged just under 60 PPG.

That’s not good when facing a UConn team that is putting up 83.9 PPG at home this season. The Huskies have been a dominant home team, outscoring their visitors by an average of 24.5 PPG this season. My own power rankings say they should be a much larger favorite here and an early line move seems to concur with that assessment. Connecticut is on a 19-8 ATS run when off a conference win and a Creighton team that shoots just 30% from three-point range isn’t going to be able to keep up here. 8* Connecticut

8* Portland State (10:30 ET): Portland State, a five-win team out of the Big Sky, is probably NOT an outfit you’ve had your eye on lately. But I think the Vikings have been somewhat undervalued. They went 2-0 ATS last week, covering the spread in a three-point loss to Southern Utah and then going to Northern Arizona and winning 97-76 as a two-point dog. That win snapped a five-game losing streak and was probably PSU’s most impressive performance to date. Let it also be known that three of the four games the Vikings had lost before that were by five points or less. 

It’s been more than two months since Portland State last won a home game, which is truly incredible when you think about it. Back in early November, at the start of the year, they picked up a pair of wins over non-board teams. Since then, they’ve lost seven in a row at the Peter W. Stott Center. I think they’ve got a GREAT chance at breaking that streak here tonight. The Vikings are hosting a Northern Colorado team that’s been a bit more “lucky” than “good” this season and is coming off an 86-75 loss to Weber State. 

While Northern Colorado last played on Thursday and Portland State’s win over Northern Arizona was Saturday, I’m still taking the points here as the visitors are giving up 78.8 PPG away from home this year, which is just not good when laying points. I was a little surprised to see that the Bears have been road favorites four times previous to this, but they lost one of the four outright and two of the three SU wins were by a combined seven points. Take the points. 8* Portland State

10* San Diego State (10:00 ET): The last time I went with San Diego State, things turned out rather well. Not only did the Aztecs (-2) hand Colorado State its first defeat of the season, they did so in emphatic fashion, winning 79-49 here at home. Since that time, however, the Aztecs have stumbled. They turned in a woeful 37-point performance against Boise State (but still only lost by five). Then, last week, they went out to Utah State and lost 71-57 as a 1-point favorite. The Aztecs are now fourth in the Mountain West and really lagging behind the top three teams (Boise, Wyoming, Colorado State). 

But it should be an easy win Monday as SDSU hosts New Mexico. Other than the 28% shooting night against Boise, the Aztecs have not lost at home all season. They are a perfect 4-0 straight up this year following a game where they were held to 60 points or less. Defensively, SDSU remains one of the top teams in the country (4th in defensive efficiency per KenPom). As long as they can get the shots to fall tonight, it will be a blowout.

The fact that New Mexico gives up 84.6 PPG away from home is a positive sign. The Lobos were 86-70 winners Friday night, but that was at home against San Jose State, the last place team in the conference. Prior to that win, the Lobos had lost seven in a row. San Diego State has had more time to prepare for this game as they last played on Wednesday. The last time the Aztecs were at home, they won by 25 over UNLV. Look for this to be a rout. 10* San Diego State

10* Golden State (8:10 ET): The Warriors seem to have hit their stride again, winning their last five games. Those five victories have come by an average of 11 PPG, which is basically what the oddsmakers are calling for tonight. While that average margin of victory is somewhat skewed because of a 130-92 blowout of Dallas last week, the Dubs should have little difficulty blowing out a downtrodden Houston team that is playing without starting PG Kevin Porter Jr. The Rockets have lost 10 in a row at home, the last two coming by a combined 45 points. 

Golden State was able to down Brooklyn 110-106 Saturday night in a marquee matchup. Now the Nets did not have either Kevin Durant or James Harden, which made the task a lot easier for the Warriors. But the Warriors’ cold shooting and having only 10 players suit up kept that game close. I really think we’re due for a “big” Steph Curry game as he’s failed to hit his season average of 25.7 PPG in four of the last five games. He’s shooting 36.9% in January, which is odd. 

The Warriors can always seem to rely on their defense, which leads the league in scoring, giving up only 102.0 PPG. The Rockets are at the opposite end of the spectrum, giving up a league-high 116.8 PPG. This happens to be a matchup of my #1 ranked vs. #29 ranked team in the power ratings. So it’s about as big of a mismatch as you can have. I know that it ended up being just a two-point game when these teams met ten days ago in San Francisco. But Curry didn’t make a single shot until 48 seconds were left in the first half and Klay Thompson sat that game out. Lay the points tonight. 10* Golden State