10* California (8:30 ET):  Though they just snapped a three-game losing streak w/ a 75-70 win over Arizona State Thursday, this remains a critical game for Cal, who is widely considered to be a bubble team at this point of the season.  Something to consider though is that all three losses they suffered came on the road. They're 12-0 SU here in Berkeley, so despite not having senior guard Tyrone Wallace, I like the Bears chances here against #12 Arizona, who finds itself playing on the road for the second time in three days. That's the dreaded situation in this conference and note that all three of 'Zona's losses this year have come away from Tucson. Yes, the Wildcats have won the L4 meetings by double digits, but tonight will be Cal's night. Take the points.

Remember that Arizona is also w/o one of its top scorers, Allonzo Trier, a freshman that had been averaging 19.3 PPG in Pac 12 play before breaking his hand in the loss to USC.  That didn't deter me from backing this team against what I felt was an overrated Washington squad and they rewarded me by winning by 32. They've followed that up w/ two more double digit wins, but you have to imagine they'll start to feel the loss of Trier.  This spot is almost indentical to the USC game as it's a second of two road games in three nights and they're a short road favorite. It is highly unlikely that they will again benefit from an opponent shooting as woefully as Stanford did Thursday (30.6 percent). 

Cal has been an underdog only two times this season. They covered both games, losing by a combined four points to Oregon and Virginia on the road. Again, they haven't lost at home. This is a team that has two phenomenal freshman, Ivan Rabb and Jaylen Brown, who combined for 37 points in the win over Arizona State Thursday.  The Bears' average margin of victory here at home is 17 PPG, so the fact they are an underdog here seems like a steal to me.  Especially since this has been the best team in the Pac 12 on the defensive end of the floor, allowing just 66.2 points per game on 37.8 percent shooting. This one "smells" like an upset.  10* California

10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET):  The Bucks lost last night in Houston, 102-98 as two-point dogs, but come in undervalued for the second game of a back to back tonight here in the Big Easy. The only reason that I can think of as to why they are taking more points against the Pelicans than they were vs. the Rockets is that it's the second game of a back to back. But betting against this Bucks team when unrested would be a mistake as is evident by their 9-2 ATS record in that role (6-5 straight up).  New Orleans, despite four wins in its last five games, remains one of the league's biggest disappointments and is a money-burning 5-8 ATS this year when laying points. The Bucks had covered five straight before yday's loss.  Take the points.

The Bucks have now been w/o HC Jason Kidd for the last 16 games, but just to show how little that means, they've gone 8-8 SU in his absence as opposed to 11-18 with him on the bench. They'd won a season-best three in a row heading into last night and a late rally that came up just shy should carry over into tonight.  The team should also be highly motivated to end a 13-game losing streak here in New Orleans. They lost by just a single point in last year's visit (as seven-point dogs) though.  Over its last six games, the Bucks have not been beaten by more than five points. After scoring 100+ in four straight, they've been held under that threshold the last two. But they should have little difficulty scoring here against a porous New Orleans defense that is allowing 105.1 PPG this year.

The Pelicans shot 53.5% Thursday vs. Detroit, their second highest percentage in a game all season. Scoring has been way up for this team the L5 games and defensively they've been better as well. But still ranking 28th in defensive efficiency tells the story.  This is not a good price range for the Pelicans to be in as they are just 3-12 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. They've also struggled against the Eastern Conference this year, going 4-10 SU/ATS. They did handle Detroit, who was in the second game of a back to back Thursday, but the difference there was that the Pistons were off a win at Houston the night prior, thus making it more likely to be prone to a letdown. 10* Milwaukee

10* Michigan State (6:30 ET):  A Tom Izzo coached team had not lost three in a row since 2006-07. That changed Wednesday night when they lost here at home to Nebraska, 72-71, their second straight one-point defeat and third straight loss overall. It's getting to be desperation time in East Lansing and now #7 Maryland comes calling.  But I happen to think the Terps are one of the more overrated teams in the country and Sparty is now a tremendous value laying a short number. MSU still allows only 55.5 PPG here at home and if there was a silver lining in Wednesday's loss, it was a return to form for Denzel Valentine, who contributed 24 pts, 6 rebounds and 6 assists. Lay the points.

Remember, Michigan State was once ranked #1 in the country. They are actually just 1-3 SU since Valentine returned, which is pretty shocking. Having come 50 points short of the linesmakers expectations during the losing skid is even more shocking.  It's difficult to pinpoint what exactly has been the cause of this subpar play, but one could certainly point a finger at Bryn Forbes, who has scored just five points on 1 of 13 shooting in the two home losses. I would expect him to play much better this evening.  Wisconsin got to the free throw line 36 times last weekend and Nebraska shot 56.8 percent from two-point range Wednesday. I wouldn't expect to see a repeat of those numbers here either.

It's not like Maryland has set the world on fire recently. They happened to be on the right side of a close decision vs. Wisconsin, thanks to a last second shot, then lost at Michigan as three-point chalk.  They trailed the Wolverines by double digits, so don't be fooled by the final score (70-67) there.  Then, earlier in the week, the offense fell apart in the second half (just 17 points!) and they needed overtime to defeat Northwestern (whom they had beaten by 13 on the road earlier in the year).  Turnovers have been a major problem for the Terrapins, who are giving the ball away on 19.6% of all possessions (250th in the country). They are quite lucky to be the fourth best shooting team in the country, but Sparty's defense will rise up here in a "must-win" spot. 10* Michigan State

8* Duke (2:00 ET):  Somebody sound the alarm in Cameron as Duke has lost three consecutive games as a favorite. I made the mistake of taking them Monday as they dropped a second straight game at home, this one by two to Syracuse (were -11.5). All three losses have come by five points or less. While the loss of Amile Jefferson has definitely left Coach K a little shorthanded, I expect him to turn things around sooner rather than later. It starts Saturday afternoon in Raleigh where they'll face a NC State team in prime letdown mode following a big upset of Pitt (as nine-point dogs) earlier in the week. Previous to that, the Wolfpack were 0-5 SU in ACC play. Duke has owned this rivalry (30-6 SU) and I see that continuing here.

Prior to this losing streak, offense had not been an issue for the Blue Devils.  They still rank 4th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and average 85.6 points per game. But against the Syracuse zone, they scored only 62 pts (season-low) on 37.1 percent shooting.  What's most unfortunate about that is that they wasted their own strong defensive effort as they held Syracuse to just 35.2 percent for the game. They are only 123rd in adjusted defensive efficiency and if you're a team w/ size, you can give the Blue Devils some trouble. But I just can't see them dropping a fourth straight ACC game. Not against a NC State squad that is allowing opponents to shoot 41.7% from three-point range here at home.

The truth is that NC State is probably better than its conference record shows as the first four games, all losses, were decided by seven points or less. Then came a double digit loss at North Carolina. But everything broke right Tuesday at Pitt as they raced out to an unthinkable 44-19 edge at halftime and cruised to a 17-point win as nine-point underdogs. But I find it hard to believe that they can even come close to duplicating such a performance here.  Consider that the Wolfpack still turned it over 19 times in the victory, which is a little bit concerning. With the weather not good in Raleigh this weekend, I wouldn't be surprised if the crowd support isn't what it normally would be for a matchup of this magnitude. 8* Duke

8* Oklahoma (12:00 ET):  For Oklahoma, it's first time atop the polls since 1989-90 is likely to be a short one as they were "upset" Monday by Iowa State, losing 82-77. I used the term upset in quotation marks, because despite the #1 ranking, it was hardly an upset as the linesmakers had Iowa State favored in Ames. OU is favored here, Saturday afternoon in Waco, against a Baylor team coming off a double overtime win against Kansas State on Wednesday. All that extra time does the Bears no favors here as the situation already favored the Sooners (two extra days to prepare), who are 13-4 ATS L17 trips to Waco. Lay the points.

At least from a pointspread perspective, Oklahoma has struggled in Big 12 play. They are 1-5 ATS w/ all but one game decided by six points or less. So, perhaps we should have seen Monday's result coming, especially on the heels of B2B two-point victories over Oklahoma State and West Virginia. But make no mistake about it; this is one of the best teams in the country w/ one of the best players (Buddy Hield). Plus, they are the best 3-point shooting team in the country, hitting a remarkable 45.7% for the season and that percentage actually goes UP on the road. Interestingly, the team actually made a season-best 17 three-pointers Monday vs. ISU, yet lost. The problem was outside of the starting backcourt of Hield and Isaiah Cousins, everyone else was a woeful 2 of 15 from two-point range. That's highly unlikely to be repeated.

Baylor was destroyed in the Big 12 opener, 102-74 in Kansas, but since then has won five straight and is actually the only team in the league w/ just one conference loss. But the team has been a little fortunate in its last two wins, first needing a buzzer beater to get by Texas Tech (63-60) last Saturday in Lubbock and then as I mentioned earlier, they needed two overtimes to get by Kansas State on Wednesday (trailed by as many as 10 in the first half). So the Bears have been living dangerously and history does not shine on them in this spot as they have NEVER beaten a #1 ranked team (0-6) in program history. Keep in mind that they have been blown out twice (Kansas, Texas A&M). 8* Oklahoma

8* Tennessee (12:00 ET): South Carolina still only has the one loss, 73-50 at Alabama, but I'm not sure there's a single person outside of Columbia that feels Frank Martin's team is one of the nation's elite. In fact, many rating systems don't even have them in the Top 25 and I'm inclined to agree. Wins over Missouri and Ole Miss over the last week again have the Gamecocks somewhat overvalued for this trip to Knoxville where waiting for them will be an angry Tennessee team that just got whipped here at Thompson-Boling Arena by Vandy. Perhaps you recall that I went AGAINST UT there as Vandy is the opposite of South Carolina, a team that is far better than its record shows. I don't see the Vols dropping B2B home games, so look for them to hand USC its second loss of the season.

The final score from Wednesday somewhat undersells how easily Tennessee was handled by the Commodores. Normally, losing by 14 at home would be bad enough on its own, but consider that the Vols trailed by as many as 28 in the game. But going back to my analysis, I was sure to point out what a bad matchup that was for UT as the smallest team in the SEC going against the biggest. It sure didn't help that they were outscored 39-12 from behind the three-point arc either. Now having dropped three of its last four, including B2B homes games, it's desperation time for Rick Barnes' team. Barnes called his team's performance "awful," rightly so, but it should be pointed out that they didn't have the usual amount of crowd support due to inclement weather keeping many fans away.

The fact that South Carolina even pulled out a victory in its last game is a minor miracle. They actually trailed Ole Miss by 11 w/ just under four minutes to go in regulation, but were able to force OT and win the game by three as 1.5-point favorites. It's been that kind of a season for them as they're now 11-3 ATS, but make no mistake about it, I anticipate this strictly being a "play against" team down the stretch.  This will be the first time this season that they are playing B2B "true" road games inside of a week. Tennessee is 6-3 ATS as a dog this year & 18-6 ATS L24 as a home dog of 3 pts or less. 8* Tennessee

8* San Antonio (10:35 ET):  Obviously, this spread is rather high. But, in my opinion, the linesmakers can't make it high enough. Consider that my own personal power ratings would have this line above -20! Also, consider that the Spurs are off a 28-point win (I was on the Over) last night in Phoenix where they cashed as 16.5-point road favorites. Phoenix has been very bad of late, but I'm not sure they are worse than the Lakers, who come into Friday riding a four-game losing streak and every defeat has come by at least 17 points. This is a matchup of my #1 and #29 rated teams.  I would have expected a higher spread for this one.

I'm not sure there are any superlatives left to describe San Antonio's season. Really, the only debate is whether its them or the Warriors that are the league's best. I side with the Spurs, who have a ridiculous +14.6 per game point differential and are on a historic pace at the defensive end of the floor. In terms of efficiency, they allow five fewer points per 100 possessions than the second best team. Since losing as an underdog (to Oklahoma City) in the season opener, Greg Popovich's team has been favored in every game and gone a ridiculous 30-12 ATS. They are 18-4 ATS when facing a team w/ a losing record and a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing in the second game of a back to back.  Ridiculous! 

What's also ridiculous is how bad the Lakers are.They lost by 22 to the Spurs last month, in San Antonio, but a change in venue is likely to bring little in the way of change in terms of result. LA is 30th in terms of defensive efficiency in the league, allowing a stunning 14.5 more points per 100 possessions compared to the Spurs. The organization's mentality of allowing Kobe Bryant to "do his thing" might help sell tickets, but it is stunting the team's growth as they should be focusing on playing the youngsters more.  There's no other way to put it - Byron Scott has done a hideous job this season.  8* San Antonio

10* Indiana (10:35 ET): This is a lot of points for the Pacers to be taking. In fact, it's the most they've gotten in any game this season. History shines brightly on them in this role as they've gone 13-4 ATS when getting 12.5 or more from the oddsmakers, including a perfect 2-0 ATS the L2 seasons. They don't exactly come into this nationally televised matchup with the Warriors in "prime form," but did at least snap a three-game losing skid Tuesday night w/ a 97-94 win at Phoenix.  Backers, myself included, really got "backdoored" in that one as at one point Indiana led by as many as 20 in the second half. There are some ugly trends that Frank Vogel's team must combat here, namely an 0-8 ATS record when seeking revenge for a home loss & a 5-13 ATS mark vs. the West. But they are 14-4 ATS when facing a team w/ a winning record and 8-1 ATS when taking the court w/ exactly two days rest. Take the points.

Meanwhile, I also happened to back the Warriors Wednesday night and watched them roll at Chicago, winning 125-94 and covering as only seven-point favorites (I also had them Monday at Cleveland). This is their first game back at home following a three-game East Coast swing, so might there be a little bit of a letdown, particularly w/ the showdown vs. the Spurs looming Monday?   Note that Golden State is just 7-9 ATS vs. the East this year. Draymond Green is listed as probable here, but is dealing w/ a head injury. 

As alluded to above, the Warriors beat the Pacers in Indiana earlier this year, 131-123 as 5.5-point chalk. Golden State shot a ridiculous 54% from the floor in that game and made 14 three-pointers.  My feeling is that the Warriors are starting to be a little bit overrated as prior to the B2B blowout wins over Cleveland and Chicago, they had gone 0-3-1 ATS the previous four games. Yes, they haven't lost at home all season, but I think Indiana will give them a tough game here. Note that the Pacers rank third in the league in terms of defensive efficiency.  10* Indiana

8* Iona (7:00 ET): The Gaels are off an outright loss their last time out, on the road, as they fell to Rider 79-75 as four-point chalk. That actually made it B2B outright losses as Friday saw them drop a wild game to Monmouth, 110-102, and no there was not overtime there! What that loss did was snap Iona's 26-game home win streak and things got real ugly as Iona HC Tim Cluess and several of his players didn't take too kindly to the Monmouth bench's continuing in-game antics. So, Sunday's loss at Rider was at least somewhat predictable. Jordan Washington (leading scorer) was suspended for that game, and this one too, but note Iona did quickly take a 16-point first half lead against Rider. They'll persevere here against a St. Peter's team that's playing its third game in six days (second straight on the road). Lay the points.

St. Peter's arrives here on a three-game win streak after upsetting Fairfield on Tuesday, 77-71 as three-point pups. The Peacocks shot an insanely good 56 percent from the field in the upset, but what's really keyed each of the last three wins is all three opponents shooting 35.5% or worse.  I think it would amount to "wishful thinking" that Iona would shoot that poorly tonight as they come in averaging 84.6 points per game at home. St. Peter's has excelled as an underdog this season, going 7-1 against the spread w/ five outright wins, but maintaining that kind of success is going to be difficult. This is the program's best ever start in MAAC play. Eventually, Cinderella is going to turn into a pumpkin. 8* Iona

10* Gonzaga (11:00 ET): This is annually St. Mary's biggest game of the year and one that typically ends in heartbreak.  Not only is Gonzaga 40-8 straight up the last 48 meetings between these WCC rivals (30-18 ATS), but they have won and covered five straight at the expense of the Gaels, including the 2014 Conference Tournament Final. Even on the road, it's been all Zags as they have won 13 of their last 18 visits to McKeon Pavillion. Though many will point to the fact that SMU has had a full week to prepare here and that Gonzaga is having a down year, I still feel the script will remain the same tonight as the better team is getting points.

St. Mary's record looks nice, but they clearly have been one of the nation's biggest overachievers. Their only two losses both came on the road and were by a combined seven points to Cal and Pepperdine.  The latest loss came as an eight-point favorite and actually marked the first game all season where the Gaels failed to cover (opened 12-0 ATS). They did bounce back against Pacific, at home, two days later. But, again, they failed to cover, this time as big 19.5-point chalk. You had to figure that sooner or later the oddsmakers would begin to catch up and we're starting to see that.  The trend continues here as I don't think they should be favored, even though they're the home team. Some teams just have their rival's number and that's certainly been the case w/ Gonzaga vs. St. Mary's.

  Gonzaga destroyed San Diego last Saturday, winning 88-52, for their largest margin of victory since the second game of the season. But that hasn't made them overvalued in this spot at all.  Rather, this will be the first time all season that the 'Zags will come in as an underdog and just the seventh time in the last three seasons.  Interestingly, they have won all three "true" road games so far, but failed to cover the spread each time. That's because they were asked to lay double digits in all three. Despite the "down year" in Spokane, Mark Few's team is still averaging over 80 points per game and that makes them quite the live dog. 10* Gonzaga

8* Over Spurs/Suns (10:35 ET):  This one looks like a clear mismatch on paper with the well-rested (three days off) Spurs and their league leading point differential (+14.3 PPG) facing off with a Suns team that has statistically speaking been the worst in the league over its last 10 games. This is also a matchup of the league's best vs. worst defensive team (I'm sure you know "who is who"), so when it comes to the total, something is going to have to give. Both teams have gone Under in B2B games and against one another, the Under has cashed in six straight meetings. I feel that's due to turn here. Take the Over.

In its last game, Phoenix actually held an opponent under 100 points.  They still lost mind you, 97-94 to Indiana, but what really sucked there for me was having the Pacers and watching them nearly blow a 20-point lead. So the Suns got in "through the backdoor" thanks to a 33-point fourth quarter (scored only 35 pts in the entire 1st half).  The Suns' offense has largely been "hit or miss" of late, but at home at least they are averaging 104.4 PPG.  The problem, which for us here is actually more a solution, has been their woeful defense. As alluded to above, they are yielding a league-high 106.7 PPG this year with the nadir performance coming on January 2nd when they allowed Sacramento to score 142 in regulation. Since then, the Suns have allowed over 100 pts in five of seven games, including three straight of 116, 117 and 117 prior to the loss to Indiana.  San Antonio, with an efficient offense, will certainly score plenty here.

In fact, the Spurs have scored at least 100 in every game since their X-Mas night loss to Houston, save for once, a win over Cleveland where they scored "only" 99 pts. That was last Thursday and I had the Under, but this game clearly will not have the same feel.  The key here, I feel, is Phoenix scoring at least 95 points. That would be above what San Antonio gives up for the year, but also below what the Suns average themselves. This is a high total for the Spurs, but a low one for the Suns, which shouldn't come as any shock. I find it interesting that this total is higher than either of the two previous meetings this season despite those games staying Under. 8* Over Spurs/Suns

8* LA Monroe (8:00 ET):  Yet another team off an outright loss here and it's LA Monroe, who has actually suffered the ignominy of four straight losses, all on the road. The last one saw them favored by 2.5 at GA Southern, yet the final result was 66-51, not in their favor. The score was almost identical when they lost at Georgia State two days prior. The first two games of the trip, ironically against stiffer competition, were both close games as the Warhawks fell to Arkansas State and Arkansas Little Rock by a combined four points. Needless to say, they should be thrilled to be back in Monroe for the next four games and I believe they'll start to turn things around tonight at the expense of a poor Troy team. Lay the points.

Again, I'll point to the home court edge as a likely deciding factor in this one. Troy is just 2-6 SU on the road and lost by nine in last year's visit here.  Despite their own 6-11 SU record (same as LA Monroe), the Trojans' overall numbers reflect a fairly mediocre club, one that is being outscored by only two points per game for the year. But the key is Monroe's impressive home numbers.  Not only are the Warhawks a perfect 5-0 SU this year in their own gym, but they're winning by an average margin of 21.4 PPG.  You won't find many teams that have played only five of 17 games at home to this point, so I wouldn't be surprised if the next two weeks help to turn around Monroe's season. They are 25-10 SU at home the L3 seasons.

Troy had actually dropped six in a row before Saturday's 66-57 home win over Texas State. They'd given up 80+ points in four of those losses, two times 90 or more.  Meanwhile, I look at LA Monroe's defensive numbers and wonder how this team could have a losing record. Sure, the numbers at home reflect a small sample size, but consider that they're allowing opponents to shoot just 40.2% for the year.  That number decreases at home to 37.4% w/ three point defense (28.3%) being particularly exemplary. They themselves are shooting 52.8% from the field at home, including above 42% from behind the arc. This should be a blowout for the Warhawks. 8* LA Monroe

8* Old Dominion (7:00 ET): If you're a regular reader/client, then you know I've been targeting teams off an outright loss in their previous game as potential 'play on' opportunities. Such an opportunity will be presenting itself three times in this report, starting w/ Old Dominion. The Monarchs have actually lost three consecutive times as favorites, so the fact that they remain chalk here shows what kind of faith the market still has in them. Note that those three losses have all been by the slimmest of margins, six points total in fact, so I feel a bounce back is imminent. It's telling that despite the 3-11 ATS record, the Monarchs (9-9 straight up) are still favored here over a 10-8 Western Kentucky team. Lay the points here. 

Defense and home court advantage are two big edges to Old Dominion here. As far as the former is concerned, the Monarchs are allowing just 56.4 points per game here at home this season. Skeptics will point to them allowing only 38 to a non-board team (Delaware State), but the fact is ODU has allowed fewer than 75 points in all but two games this season and actually ranks 8th nationally in points allowed. Given that they only allow 56.4 PPG here at home, it should come as no surprise to find that they are 8-2 straight up here with a scoring differential of +16.3 per game. They had actually won 32 straight home games before losing here to UAB and Middle Tennessee by a total of four points last week (started 8-0 this year).

WKU, meanwhile, was only 1-7 SU on the road this season before a win over a terrible North Texas team this past weekend. The fact that the Hilltoppers were even favored in that game should tell you about the sorry state of UNT right there. Also consider that the 76 points allowed in that win was one of WKU's BETTER performances of late. They allow 77.4 PPG for the year (82.0 PPG on the road) and had given up 94, 82 and 83 in three of their previous four contests.  They were destroyed in last year's visit to Norfolk, losing 75-52 as nine-point dogs. The home court edge really is a big deal here as is ODU's defensive prowess.  8* Old Dominion

8* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): If you recall from the early part of the season, Memphis was a team that I said I was going to target as a 'play against.' So the fact that Cincinnati is in a "buy low" spot here (off two-point loss at Temple Saturday) makes the situation even sweeter. Clearly, Memphis is a program in steep decline under the watch of HC Josh Pastner following the "golden era" of John Calipari. Seven players had transferred out of the program even before this year even got underway and Pastner is nowhere near the recruiter Coach Cal was/is. The Tigers come in having won five of seven, but all the wins were against lesser competition than what awaits them here. Despite only a 13-6 SU record, Cincinnati is a dangerous team that I feel is poised to go on a nice run and land in the NCAA Tournament. Lay the points.

Yes, Memphis may have beaten the same Temple team that has now beaten Cincinnati twice, but let's look at those results. Memphis won by two at home over the Owls, while the Bearcats just lost by two to them. That was actually Cincy's fourth two point loss of the season, the others coming to Butler, Iowa State and SMU, all of whom are ranked. Had all three of those results gone "the other way," we'd probably see Mick Cronin's team ranked in the top 15 nationally.  Poor shooting has cost them recently (38.7% last 5 games) but I wouldn't worry too much about that as at home, they are at 47.1 percent for the year. Also, they have held their L2 opponents both under 40 percent, a threshold Memphis has been below in four of its last five games.

While looking over both teams' defensive numbers, you might figure that points will be at a premium and thus backing the dog is the way to go here.  But, again, not so fast. Memphis has played only two "true" road games so far and given up an average of 81 points per game in them. I'm far more confident in Cincinnati's ability to score tonight as they average 81.7 PPG here at home where they are outscoring foes by 18.8 points per game. The price range also shouldn't scare you as the Bearcats are a perfect 5-0 ATS the L3 seasons as home chalk of 6.5 to 9 points.  8* Cincinnati

8* Vanderbilt (9:00 ET):  Vandy, like Texas, is better than its record. I say that even though the Commodores let me down on Saturday by failing to cover an 11-point spot at home against an Alabama team that had just handed South Carolina its first loss of the year. Maybe, with the benefit of hindsight, that spread was too high. But tonight's line certainly isn't as it's a short number the Commies are laying in a visit to in-state rival Tennessee. Once again, it's another opponent fresh off an upset as the Vols beat Mississippi State 80-75 on Saturday as three-point road underdogs. As strong as they've looked in Knoxville this season (8-1 SU), they did lose their last game here, 92-88 to Texas A&M, and as is the case here they came into that game off fresh off an upset win. Lay the points.

This will actually be the fifth consecutive game where UT is an underdog, so right there you can get a feel about how the "market" judges them. Four of the team's last six games have been decided by six points or less. Predictably, the three times they've given up more than 80 points during that stretch, they have lost. Fortunately, they do average 79.6 points per game themselves, but what about a Vandy team that comes in averaging 78.4? Unlike the Vols, the Commodores are capable of playing a little defense as they are giving up just 65.4 PPG and allowing teams to shoot just 37.7% (27.5% from three-point range). That will be a big difference in this game.

It's hard to believe that Vanderbilt is just 10-7 SU this season given that they have a per game point differential of +13.0! For the sake of comparison, Tennessee is 9-8 SU, but only outscoring its opponents by 3.2 points per game! So the road favorite status is definitely justified for the Commodores here and in fact they came to Knoxville and won last year, 73-65 as one-point dogs. That's their only win in the last four meetings, however, so they won't be lacking for motivation. Throw in the fact that Tennessee will again likely be w/o forward Armani Moore (12.4 PPG), leaving them with a big size disadvantage for this matchup. Vandy has three players at 7 feet or taller on its roster, most notably Luke Kornet, and this is actually a matchup of the SEC's tallest vs. shortest team, which is great for the underrated Commies. 8* Vanderbilt

10* Minnesota (8:35 ET):  The T'wolves started the season surprisingly strong with an 8-8 SU record through 16 games. Since then, they have won just five times in their last 27 tries and lately it's been a real ugly 1-10 stretch with the only win coming at home against a similarly downtrodden Phoenix team. The misery continued last night in New Orleans where they were beaten 114-99 as 5.5-point dogs and obviously few will give them a chance here in the second game of a back to back. But, I'll continue to make the case that teams playing w/o rest are typically undervalued (particularly when on the road) and that is the case here in a visit to Dallas where the Mavs are off a SU dog win over Boston their last time out. Take the points.

Last night is an exception, but for whatever reason Minnesota has simply played better on the road this season.  They are just 7-13 straight up, but 12-8 ATS, which is a reflection of the high spreads they face on a game by game basis. Last night, the linesmakers were of little help as the team allowed the Pelicans to shoot better than 50% from the floor, but overall the T'wolves are being outscored by just 2.5 points per game away from home.  It was a six-point game when they hosted Dallas ten days ago, even though it was a poor shooting night (4 of 16 from 3-pt range).  While still winless this season in the second game of a back to back (0-7 SU), the T'wolves are 5-2 ATS as road underdogs of 6.5 to 9 points, so this is a good range for them to be in.

Dallas is 5th in the West, but realistically nowhere close to the top four in terms of talent or results. They were blown out by both Oklahoma City and San Antonio on the road last week before returning home to surprise Boston Monday night.  In retrospect, it was pretty curious that they were getting two points at home in that spot. They did lead by as many as 17 in the fourth quarter before a dramatic swing had the Celtics up six and it looked as if the linesmakers might be 'spot on."  But the Mavs were able to force OT and win 118-113. That being the third time they had to go into overtime in the last nine games, you have to wonder if it will be the home team showing signs of fatigue in this one. Dallas has actually been outscored this season (-0.2 PPG) & is just 2-6 ATS coming off a SU win as a dog. 10* Minnesota

8* Golden State (8:05 ET): There probably won't be a better value all season than the one we got on the Warriors Monday night as they were actually a 3.5 point underdog when they went into Cleveland and destroyed the Cavaliers 132-98.  Naturally, expecting that kind of performance two games in a row would be somewhat foolish, but that doesn't mean there isn't value in taking the NBA Champs yet again.  Here, they visit a Chicago team off its own outright win as a dog (111-101 at Detroit, +3), but previously the Bulls had failed to cover five in a row. I am still not sold on this team under Fred Hoiberg and remember they are now w/o Joakim Noah for the foreseeable future. Golden State is still 60 percent ATS for the year (24-16-2) and just in a different class than Chicago. Lay the points.

It was downright ridiculous what the Warriors pulled off Monday night in Cleveland and even I (who took them) could not have anticipated such a one-sided affair. They scored 132 points on 54.1% shooting including 19 made three-pointers. They outscored the Cavs 31-2 in transition and the game was never close after Golden State went up 34-21 after one quarter w/ Steph Curry leading the way w/ 16 points. At one point, they led by as many as 43! Though all four of their losses this season have come on the road, the Warriors are still 15-7 ATS in those games w/ an average margin of victory of +8.7 per game. I don't anticipate any kind of a letdown here.

Chicago may be 9-2 SU w/o Noah this season, but his 8.8 rebounds per game were a big part of the team leading the league in that category. Also, the fact that the Bulls have allowed an average of 105.8 points its last six games is somewhat of an ominous sign here going up against the most efficient offense in basketball.  I think Chicago is somewhat lucky to be where it's at in the standings (third in the East) as they are outscoring opponents by only 1.4 points per game. They are 14-8 SU in games decided by six points or less, including needing a huge comeback to beat Philadelphia last week. Derrick Rose is nowhere close to the player he once was and for whatever reason this team simply does not shoot the ball well at home (42.8%).  Look for another Warriors blowout here. 8* Golden State

8* Texas (7:00 ET):  Texas is one of those teams that's better than its record, which is now 11-6 (straight up) following B2B wins over Iowa State and Oklahoma State last week in Austin. Remember, this is just year one under HC Shaka Smart, who is w/o his best player (Cameron Ridley). Clearly, tonight's visit to Morgantown will be a challenge, but I think Smart will have his team up for it. WVU is coming off just its second loss of the season (by two at Oklahoma) and because of the nature of that loss, I wonder how they'll respond. This is also somewhat of a "flat spot" for the Mountaineers after playing the two top teams in the nation last week (Kansas, OU). I've said it before, but it bears repeating. WVU is unlikely to continue holding its opponents to such poor shooting numbers, while their own shooting is due to decline as well.  Take the points.

A case can be made that Iowa State is overrated, but beating them was a nice win for Texas last week. They followed it up by holding off Oklahoma State on Saturday in a game that really wasn't as close as the 74-69 final score indicates. At one point, the Longhorns led by as many as 23 points in the second half and were really rolling. But they missed 14 of their final 16 three-point attempts and that combined w/ poor free throw shooting let the Pokes in through the "back door." But, as an underdog, there's a lot to like about this team. They have yet to be blown out w/ their largest loss coming by 11 points against Texas A&M, which was the third game of the season and in the Bahamas. Four of the other five defeats have come by six points or less. Stylistically, they match up well against WVU as Smart is known to employ a similar kind of defensive pressure as his counterpart Bob Huggins.

The last time WVU played here in Morgantown, they "upset" then #1 Kansas, 74-63 (were only 1 pt dogs). In what was a very tough spot, they then had to go to Norman to face #2 Oklahoma and ended up losing 70-68 on a last second tip in. After two games like that, you have to wonder what the Mounties may have left in the tank here. Are opponents really going to continue shooting only 27.4% from three-point range against them? Probably not. Interestingly, Oklahoma was held to just 33.3% shooting and still won the game. WVU turned the ball over 16 times against the Sooners, which is cause for concern here. Consider that in their last three games, Texas has turned it over just 19 times - total. Those numbers are a big deal in a game that is bound to feature a lot of pressing. This spread just seems way too high.  8* Texas

10* Michigan State (6:30 ET):  Tom Izzo's team has now dropped B2B games outright, first to Iowa in what was a big revenge spot (were -9) and then Sunday at Wisconsin (were -6). But if Nebraska thinks they are going to be able to come into East Lansing and surprise the Spartans, they better think again. Each of the last two seasons, the Cornhuskers have upset Sparty, including 60-51 (as 14-pt dogs) here at the Breslin Center back in 2014. Last year's only meeting took place in Lincoln and it was another upset, this time by two as two-point dogs. Don't think for a second that Izzo won't be constantly reminding his players of that and as a result I expect an angry favorite to take care of business in this spot. Lay the points.

Revenge can often be an overrated factor in handicapping and we saw that play out the last time the Spartans were in East Lansing when Iowa came in and beat them for a second time this year, this time 76-59 and that was with Denzel Valentine back in the lineup for MSU. But remember that Iowa is a really good team (I had them in the first meeting), much better than tonight's opponent. Sparty's loss to Wisconsin over the weekend can be more easily "explained away." It was fouling, which they did too much of, leading to the Badgers owning a 36-16 edge in FT attempts. That clearly made a huge difference in a game that was decided by just a single point. Remember though; MSU had been in the top 10 defensively prior to the B2B losses. Though just 1-2 since his return, Valentine being back clearly makes this a better team.

Nebraska seems to be trending in the right direction as they have won three straight (4-0 ATS L4). Thus, they are likely to be feeling pretty good about themselves coming into tonight. But I question them being able to maintain their recent hot shooting (54.2% overall L3 games) against a team known for playing stingy defense. They are also not likely to dominate the boards here in the manner they did against their previous three opponents as MSU ranks 11th nationally in rebounding. With the Cornhuskers off a SU dog win at Illinois their last time out & MSU off B2B SU losses as a favorite, it's a clear sell high/buy low situation here. Remember that Nebraska had opened Big 10 play w/ three straight losses.  10* Michigan State

10* Indiana (9:05 ET):  Just last week, the Pacers beat the Suns 116-97 (were -12) in Indiana. Believe it or not, Phoenix had actually taken seven of the nine previous meetings before that while also going a perfect 9-0 against the spread. Certainly, you'd imagine that trend has to start "going the other way" and given the current sorry state of the Suns, I'll call for Indiana to come in here and record another blowout. Now the Pacers have dropped three in a row, including a three-point loss in Denver two nights ago where the defense, uncharacteristically, let them down. But tonight they face an opponent in far worse shape as Phoenix is just 1-13 SU its last 14 games overall. Only three times during that stretch have they covered the spread.  Lay the points here.

Defensively, Indiana rates as the fourth most efficient team in the league as they allow just 99.1 points per 100 possessions. They were second before giving up 129 in Denver as the Nuggets scored 45 in the fourth quarter alone and 75 in the second half.  Needless to say, that was very "un-Pacers" like and the defensive lapse wasted their own 66 point first half (season-high!) on 66 percent shooting. Note, however, that Frank Vogel had only 10 players suit up in the loss and it appeared as if the team ran out of gas. They should have little trouble stopping Phoenix here though as the Suns shot just 40.4% in last week's matchup and have averaged only 96.8 PPG over the last month. That includes only 87 points in Sunday's loss to Minnesota.

Scoring should not be an issue for Indiana here either. Yes, they might still be down a few players, but they are facing a Phoenix team that is allowing the highest field goal percentage of any team in the league right now (47.6%), not to mention 113.4 PPG their last seven contests. If you're looking for a trend with the Pacers, note they have not lost four in a row all season long. Three times they've dropped three in a row and they've won and covered the next time out, every time. Unlike past seasons, the Eastern Conference has made a solid account for itself against the West this year, even being responsible for half of the Warriors/Spurs total losses, not to mention eight of the Thunder's 12. Somewhat surprisingly, Indiana has not played a role in that success, but I certainly expect them to take advantage of a lesser non-conference opponent, even if it's on the road. 10* Indiana

8* Loyola (IL) (9:00 ET):  Normally, I might take a look at a team like Loyola, who is off an impressive 51-41 upset of Northern Iowa on Saturday, and call for a letdown spot the following game. But the Ramblers have had quite the unique season so far. Prior to pulling off that upset, they'd lost five in a row, but this is by no means a bad team. Three straight losses came by a combined FIVE points and there is no doubt in my mind that this team is far better than its 8-10 straight up (5-12 ATS) record shows. Tonight, motivation should not be a question as they travel to Evansville to face one of the top teams in the Missouri Valley. There will be no letdown here as Loyola is due to start covering some more games. Take the points.

Admittedly, Evansville is a hot team right now. The Purple Aces are 16-3 SU for the season and have won nine of 10, including five straight covers. The one SU loss came by three at MVC leader Wichita State and since then they've posted three consecutive double digit victories, the most recent coming at Illinois State on Friday, 66-55 as 5.5-point chalk. But, perhaps, has this team reached its "tipping point?"  They've shot a ridiculous 52.2% from the floor this season and been above 50% in four of the last five games. That's in sharp contrast to Loyola, who is shooting a wretched 40.4% in conference play so far. Eventually though, these shooting percentages will start to even out. Loyola is one of the few teams in the MVC whose scoring average is actually DOWN compared to last year (remember rule changes). Despite being off an SU dog win, it's still a "buy low" situation with the road dog here.

As they showed against Northern Iowa, Loyola can certainly play some defense and that will come in handy here. Allowing just 62.2 PPG for the year, the Ramblers held UNI to 41 points on 27.1% shooting Saturday! Evansville is similarly stingy (just 65.5 PPG allowed) and two of its last three opponents have shot worse than 31% from the field.  But those defensive numbers certainly seem to indicate that points will be at a premium all around in this one, so naturally backing the underdog seems like the way to go.  Ramblers HC Porter Moser made some changes to his starting lineup for the last game and they certainly seemed to pay off. While Evansville has taken three of the last four meetings between the two schools, Loyola won here last season as six-point dogs. 8* Loyola (IL)

10* Ohio (7:00 ET):  Ohio is off a pretty bad week as they were beaten outright here in Athens, 91-75 by Bowling Green (as 10.5 pt favorites), then fell at Kent State by a score of 89-82 (were 4.5 pt dogs). That makes it three losses in the last four games for the Bobcats (0-4 ATS), who now find themselves in a bit of a hole at the outset of MAC play. But it's not like overcoming a 1-3 SU conference record is insurmountable. Tonight they host a Western Michigan team that treated me quite well on Saturday as they rolled to an 83-69 win over Northern Illinois, but that was their 1st conference win of this campaign. OU takes the court here w/ a little bit of quadruple revenge (0-4 SU/1-3 ATS) on its mind after being swept each of the last two seasons by the Broncos. Lay the points.

Though they lost by double digits the last time they played at home, Ohio actually led the game (against Bowling Green) by five at the break. BG caught fire in the second half, scoring 58 points and the Bobcats couldn't stop fouling as they finished w/ the unusual distinction of attempting fewer free throws (21) than their visiting opponent made (22). That was bad news for the Bobcats, who are fourth in the COUNTRY in FT shooting (77.4%), yet uncharacteristically went 12 of 21 against the Falcons. Saturday at Kent State saw them go an outstanding 20 of 22 from the charity stripe, but again the opponent got more opportunities (36) and that ended up being the difference in the ball game. Simply put, it is very important that the Bobcats get to the FT line with greater regularity than Western Michigan here.

WMU was at home Saturday and pretty much rolled from the start against Northern Illinois as I'd anticipated. But outside of Kalamazoo, things have tended to not go the Broncos' way. They are just 1-7 SU in road/neutral site games this year while averaging only 64.2 points per game (40.4 FG%). That's a far cry from the offensive output we got on Saturday when the team connected on 12 of 26 three-point attempts.  OU, averaging 79.2 points per game this season, is 8-1 SU at home. The home court edge is a big deal in this one and I expect WMU's turnover issues (14.5 per game in MAC play) to haunt them here. 10* Ohio

10* Golden State (8:05 ET):  When last year's two NBA finalists rematched on X-Mas Day, I took Cleveland (as a 7-pt underdog) and the end result worked out in my favor as the final score was "only" 89-83 in favor of the Warriors. Now the Cavs get to play host, but the line has shifted too much in my opinion. I would still make the NBA Champs a favorite here, even though they are off a loss (second in three games!) and Cleveland has lost only one time at home all season. The Cavs just completed a long road trip w/ three games in four nights in Texas and having to return home to face the Warriors in the first game back is a "tough ask."  I don't see them holding Golden State to just 89 points again like they did the first time. Take the points.

After winning 36 of their first 38 games, the Warriors have now fallen behind the pace set by Jordan's Bulls exactly 20 years ago. All four losses this season have come on the road. But this will be just the second time all year that they've been an underdog. The only other time was when they were w/o Steph Curry and playing the second game of a back to back (also off a loss) at Houston. They would go on to win that game outright. Despite losing to Denver and Detroit this week, let us not forget what this team has accomplished so far this season. They've still outscored opponents by 11.1 points per game and are +7.4 on the road. I seriously doubt we'll see them shoot as poorly again as they did Saturday in Detroit (36.2 percent) and off their three previous losses the team is 3-0 SU, 2-0-1 ATS.

Cleveland did just play San Antonio on the road (lost by only four) and then concluded its road trip by holding Houston to just 77 points.  Overall, the Cavs have won nine of 10, but I still see them as a "notch below" both the Spurs and Warriors at this time.  That can certainly change as Kyrie Irving is still working his way back into shape after missing the first two months of the season. It promises to be a spirited crowd Monday night at the Quicken Loans Arena, but LeBron and company are just 13-19 ATS as a favorite this year and I simply do not believe laying points to a fully healthy Warriors squad is wise at this point. 10* Golden State

10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET):  Since firing HC Lionel Hollins and GM Billy King, the results have largely remained the same for the Nets, who are by most measures the third worst team in the league (only ahead of the Lakers and Sixers). They did beat the Knicks last Wednesday and I was on them there, but they've since dropped B2B games (both by double digits) to fall to 1-7 SU/ATS their last eight games and 11-30 SU overall for the season. However, tonight I see a little value in them taking double digits against a Toronto team that will be returning home following an extended road trip that saw them play a game in London last Thursday. The Raptors have had the last three days off, but the linesmakers have made them quite unappealing in this spot and I'll take the points.

Brooklyn last played on Saturday and things certainly did not go well in a 114-86 loss in Atlanta. Fortunately for our purposes, it's hard to see them playing any worse here. They have really struggled to defend lately and the Hawks shot better than 55 percent from the field.  But the Nets were better on that end of the floor against Toronto, at home on January 6th, even though they still lost 91-74. Usually you'll see a bit of an uptick, albeit only a temporary one, when a team makes a coaching change.  Save for that win over the Knicks, we've really yet to see that with the Nets.  Getting blown out again here, needless to say, would be a really bad "look." Surprisingly, they are 5-2 ATS (3-4 straight up!) as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points this season.

The Raptors last played at home on January 3rd when they lost outright to the Bulls.  Somewhat surprisingly, they are just 11-6 SU at home this year (8-9 against the spread). Many times, in a team's first game back home following a long trip, they struggle. Toronto has won four straight in spite of their own poor shooting, instead relying on defense and an ability to get to the free throw line. While there's no denying who the better team is here, Toronto is only 9-10 ATS when taking on a team w/ a losing record and this price range is pretty rarefied air for them. This is actually the most points they've been asked to lay in any game this season, even more than when they hosted Philadelphia. 10* Brooklyn

10* Duke (7:00 ET):  The Blue Devils are off B2B outright losses here, first to Clemson and then to Notre Dame.  Clemson has caught the ACC by surprise and the game was on the road, so Coach K and company at least have a little bit of an excuse for going down there. But I was shocked to then see them fall again, here in Durham, to Notre Dame over the weekend. Then again, maybe I shouldn't have been as the Fighting Irish have now beaten Duke four of the last five times they have played due to matching up relatively well as both teams are typically among the nation's best in terms of offensive efficiency. Tonight's opponent, Syracuse, should be far more to the Cameron Crazies' liking. The Orange, though off a shockingly dominant 83-55 win at Wake Forest over the weekend, still average only 71.1 PPG for the season.  Lay the points.

The narrative surrounding Syracuse and its back to back wins will be "Boeheim is back."  The legendary head coach (longest tenured in the country) missed nine games due to suspension and the team really did struggle w/o him, losing five times, three of those coming by double digits. What we saw offensively from the Orange on Saturday though I feel had more to do with how awful Wake Forest has been defensively, not Boeheim or something the 'Cuse is capable of on a regular basis. The Orange made 10 three-pointers plus had 32 points in the paint. But, honestly, it was a better than usual performance on the defensive end that keyed the victory and Wake really helped out by shooting a woeful 32.6 percent for the game, including 2 for 20 on three-pointers.

Duke is far more likely to find success against Syracuse's trademark zone than Wake Forest did.  The Blue Devils come in averaging 86.9 points per game (93.3 at home!) and prior to Notre Dame had not dropped a game here in Cameron Indoor all season. Their average margin of victory here at home is +24.2 PPG thanks to 50.1% overall shooting including 40.9% from three-point range.  Syracuse, which received a season-best 27 points from Trevor Cooney against Wake Forest, simply won't be able to keep pace. They are 2-8 ATS the L3 seasons after topping 80 pts in their previous game. Duke was victimized by a career-best game from an opposing player their last time out, but is 9-2 ATS after allowing 80+ points. They beat the Orange by 19 here at home last year. 10* Duke

8* Portland (2:05 ET):  The Blazers are coming off the most embarrassing loss possible, that being to Philadelphia. Playing in the second game of a back to back, they actually fell behind the Sixers (in Philly) by as many as 31 points in the fourth quarter (were 6 pt favorites!) Saturday night. Though the Sixers had just blown a big lead against Chicago their previous game, few could have predicted that result as Portland actually came in riding a three-game win streak (beat Brooklyn 116-104 the previous night) and does boast the league's highest scoring backcourt tandem in Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum (45.1 points per game). That duo combined to shoot just 10 of 36 from the floor Saturday (2 of 12 from 3-pt range) and as a team, the Blazers were just 5 of 29 from behind the arc. I expect a bounce back here. Take the points.

Washington has been quite the disappointment so far this season. With them, I keep coming back to the pledge to play at a faster tempo, a change that has not really worked for the better.  While playing at the league's fifth fastest pace, they are tied for only 14th in offensive efficiency and defensively they have been downright awful, giving up an average of 104.1 PPG for the season. Saturday saw the Wizards drop a home game to Boston, 119-117, as Bradley Beal sat out after making his return from a 16-game absence the previous night in Indiana. Beal is expected to play here, but there are other injuries the team is dealing with right now.  I also don't know how long HC Randy Wittman is for this job.

Portland goes as Lillard goes with the point guard averaging 27.9 PPG in their wins. When he shoots below 38 percent from the field, the team is winless (0-12) w/ him averaging just 18.3 PPG. Coming off the subpar effort in Philadelphia, I expect a return to form here against a poor defensive club. I really don't think that the Wizards deserve to be in this price range against most teams as they actually have a losing SU record (9-12) at home this year. Opponents are shooting nearly 40 percent from three-point range against the Wizards here at home this season. 8* Portland

8* Over Mavericks/Spurs (7:05 ET): Something is going to have to give here with San Antonio having gone Over the total in five of their last seven games, but Dallas is 9-2 Under its last 11. Considering the Spurs' historic efficiency rating on defense (allow only 93.6 points per 100 possessions, five points fewer than the #2 team), one might be inclined to expect the Mavs' trend to be the one that continues here, but even though last five matchups between them and the Spurs having stayed Under, I look for this one to sneak past the total. Dallas is coming off B2B very low scoring games where they averaged just 86 points per game. One of those saw them rest starters though. They shot 39% from the field in both games. Even against the top defensive team in the league, I see them improving here. Take the Over.

San Antonio's streak of scoring 100 or more points was halted at nine Thursday as they scored "only" 99 in a come from behind victory over Cleveland. I was on the Under in that one, which ended up being a two-point winner. However, the fact remains the Spurs had scored 100 or more points in 16 of their previous 17 games. They average 105.1 PPG here at home and have not stayed Under 100 in consecutive contests since December 2nd. So like Dallas, they too are due for a scoring increase. They got off to cold start shooting the ball against Cleveland, but remain above 50 percent overall their last five games and above 49 percent for the season. The Mavs allow 101.3 PPG on the road this season, so it has been quite uncharacteristic to see them allow just 95.6 PPG their last five overall on 42.2% shooting. Certainly look for the Spurs to "get theirs" here.

Clearly, the key here will be Dallas scoring enough to help send this one Over the total. The only previous meeting this season was an 88-83 win for the Spurs, not good news, but at least we've seen the O/U line decrease a few points, not to mention significantly from where it was for last season's four meetings. Back in November, these teams both shot right around 41 percent overall and combined to go a woeful 14 of 50 from three-point range. Those numbers certainly can be improved upon. In terms of true shooting, only Golden State has been better this year than San Antonio and both of these teams rank in the top 10 in free throw shooting. 8* Over Mavericks/Spurs

8* Drake (4:00 ET):  This line looks a little bit curious, no? Southern Illinois comes in at 15-3 SU (7-1 on the road!), but are laying just a short number to a Drake team that has lost five in a row (just 5-12 SU for the season), four of those coming by double digits. For a lot of people, I think the natural inclination would be to back the short road favorite, but as regular readers/clients will tell you, I'm not "most people."  I see some value with Drake here as SIU has been favored in only four of its last nine games and three of those times they did not cover. That includes an ugly outright loss to SIU-Edwardsville plus a non-cover last time out vs. Illinois State. Drake has not shot the ball well of late, but remains at 51.2 percent from the field at home for the year. Take the points.

Drake played its last two games on the road and was blown out both times, first by Northern Iowa and then by Evansville. They are now the only team in the Missouri Valley w/o a league win after both Bradley and Loyola pulled upsets in their last games. Despite the 0-5 start in MVC play, the Bulldogs are still only being outscored by 2.5 points per game on the season. Their scoring average has dipped to an awful 57.4 PPG in conference play, but that number is only going to go up as they had to face both Wichita State and Northern Iowa on the road and were held to only 91 points total. This is a team that stayed w/ Iowa (lost by only six) on a neutral floor last month. 

Two of Southern Illinois' losses this season were close - by five (UTEP) and two (SIU-Edwardsville). But overall, the Salukis have excelled in close games this season w/ six wins by five points or less, including five of them by three points or less. Their "luck" is eventually bound to run out and there is the fact they were blown out on their own floor, 83-58, by Wichita State just two games ago. Tuesday vs. Illinois State, they trailed by as many as 12 in the second half before rallying back and winning the game on a three-pointer w/ just 24 seconds left.  The home team won both meetings between these two last season and I see Drake possessing what is the great equalizer if you're an underdog and that's three-point shooting. The Bulldogs are 43.4 percent for the year from behind the arc at home. Look them to regain their "lost" shooting touch in this upset bid. 8* Drake

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET):  Despite an outright win here at home over Atlanta (as a 3-pt dog) earlier in the week, the Hornets remain a solid value tonight, even as a favorite. Milwaukee played last night and while they ended up with a nice win themselves over the Hawks, the game did go into overtime. The Bucks actually trailed by as many as 11, at home, so it wasn't nearly as impressive as what Charlotte did to Atlanta, which was win by 23. Now the Hornets also played last night and lost - by two - at New Orleans as Anthony Davis won the game on a dunk w/ just two seconds left. Despite it being their eighth loss in the last nine games, my personal power rankings suggest that this line should be closer to double digits. Lay the points.

The Bucks are not a good road team. They've gone 5-18 SU away from home while being outscored by 9.6 points per game. While the team has covered four of its last five overall, they dropped both road games during that span, straight up. Defense is an issue here as Milwaukee gives up 105.6 PPG on the road. However, it was a lack of offense that burned them in their previous visit to Charlotte this season. They were held to just 82 points - their second lowest total in any game this season. While the Bucks still covered (were +6.5), it was the eighth time in the last nine matchups with the Hornets that they came out on the short end of the stick. Defense is typically not a concern for Charlotte as they are allowing just 97.9 PPG here at home.

Though both teams played last night, I believe that fatigue will be more of a factor of Milwaukee. Giannis Antetokounmpo may have grabbed a career-high 16 rebounds last night, but he played a career-high 50 minutes as well. For the third straight game, Khris Middleton played more than 40 minutes. Being the road team puts the Bucks at an even greater disadvantage. Charlotte is a strong 14-7 SU at home this season and a perfect 3-0 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. With Nic Batum back in the lineup, their rotation isn't quite as strained as the Bucks is right now. The Hornets actually outscored the Pelicans in three of the four quarters last night. Only two of their players logged more than 30 minutes.  The situation definitely favors them here. 10* Charlotte

10* Western Michigan (7:00 ET):  This is yet another classic situation where we "buy low" on a team coming off an outright loss as a favorite while at the same time "sell high" on the opponent which is coming off a SU win as a dog.  Western Michigan, as a three-point home favorite, lost to Ball State on Tuesday. It was their third consecutive loss and the second in a row where they shot quite poorly. In addition to finishing the game at only 36.5% from the field, they allowed Ball State to connect on a 51.9% clip.  Meanwhile, Northern Illinois is off a somewhat notable upset of Toledo as 6.5-point dogs. They are the only team in the MAC w/o a conference loss (14-2 SU overall), but the Huskies are due to fall. Lay a very short number.

Historically speaking, this game being in Kalamazoo is a huge edge for WMU. Northern Illinois has won just ONE time here since 1997 (in 17 tries). While only 5-3 SU at home this year, WMU is averaging 82.1 points per game here. That's a little skewed due to a blowout of a non-board team (Marygrove), but note this team has suffered a number of close losses w/ most of them coming here at University Arena. The Broncos are 2-6 SU this season in games decided by six points or less w/ a trio of three-point home losses to Kent State (in overtime), IUPUI-Ft Wayne (also in OT) and Mercer.  Simply put, they are long overdue to have one "go their way." Considering they've won 10 of 11 overall against NIU, now seems like that time.

This will be NIU's second road game of the week, always a tough spot, and made tougher by the fact that WMU is playing its second straight home game. I think the line speaks volumes here considering the respective records.  Northern Illinois has benefited greatly from poor shooting by their opponents this season (just 37.6% overall) but they themselves haven't shot well outside of DeKalb (36.5% overall). They were better than that against Toledo on Tuesday, but Western Michigan is connecting at a 46.6% clip here at home this season. Again, this is a classic case of perception not being reality and I have the Broncos rolling to a much deserved win and cover. 10* Western Michigan

10* Vanderbilt (6:00 ET):  I think it's safe to say that Vandy is a team that has not performed up to expectations thus far. The Commies are just 9-7 SU with six of those losses coming in the last nine games. Yet, somewhat surprisingly, they still own a 7-3 ATS record as a favorite after a 75-57 beatdown of Auburn earlier this week. This team is absolutely better than its record shows as they have a +20.6 PPG scoring margin here at home. Having big man Luke Kornet back in the fold now makes them all the more dangerous. He delivered a triple double Tuesday (w/ 10 blocks!). I think its important to remember that this Vandy team was picked to finish second in the SEC this year. Despite what looks like a big number to lay, this is actually a "buy low" spot on the Commodores.

Alabama comes in fresh off an upset of previously undefeated South Carolina.  That of course only serves to inflate their own value. The Crimson Tide is having quite the week, but a 23-point win as four-point home underdogs usually is a clear signal that a letdown spot is on the horizon. The fact that South Carolina was one of just two unbeatens left in the country was a surprise, but the fact is that the Gamecocks came out somewhat flat on Wednesday and shot only 35.8% for the game including an awful 3 of 18 from three-point range. At the same time, the Tide opened the game by making their first seven attempts from behind the arc and finished 13 of 28. Bama has been fortunate so far this season in the sense that all five games they've played against ranked teams have come in Tuscaloosa. Note that early in the season, they were destroyed (by 32!) at Dayton. They are averaging just 59.2 PPG away from home.

Vandy had lost three in a row prior to blowing out Auburn. However, all three losses and for that matter all but one of the team's losses this year have been close. The one exception came at Purdue. Alabama is a team they beat twice last year. Again, looking at the numbers, it's hard to see how this team is only 9-7 straight up. They are shooting 47.1% from the field this season (40.2% from three-point range) and both of those numbers go up here at Memorial Gyn. At the same time, they are holding opponents to just 37% overall shooting including 27% from three-point range.  10* Vanderbilt

8* Marquette (2:00 ET):  Xavier still only has one loss, though it was an ugly one New Year's Eve when I decided to go against them and lay the points with Villanova (lost by 31!). Since the New Year, the 7th ranked Musketeers have gone 3-0 straight up, twice delivering a double digit victory at home. But the one road game was a little closer than expected and that was against lowly St. John's. In fact, one could argue that none of Xavier's performances in "true" road games since destroying Michigan early in the year have been impressive. Not only did they beat a bad St. John's team by just six points (laying 15), as mentioned earlier they were crushed by Villanova and they were also lucky to get by Wake Forest (trailed by as many as 18). I see this game at Marquette being a bigger challenge than expected. Take the points.

Now a case could be made that Marquette should feel pretty fortunate to be 12-5 SU right now. They are a perfect 6-0 straight up in games decided by six points or less since losing the season opener to Belmont, 85-83, and that includes their own narrow win over St. John's here at home. By not covering the spread in that game, the Golden Eagles are now a lousy 12-28 ATS their L40 home games, including 2-8 this season. They are off a 15-point loss at Villanova, but let us not forget this is a team that owns outright upsets on the road over Providence, LSU and Wisconsin. This will be the first time all season that they have taken points at home and I'm sure the players remember last year's ugly 64-44 home loss to Xavier as they were held to 34.6% shooting including 3 of 15 from three-point range. I'm calling for a bounce back in this spot. 

Against Villanova, Marquette actually led at the half despite trailing by as many as 16 early on in the game. They did manage to cover as big 18-point underdogs. Offensively, they should be able to hang w/ Xavier here as they average 81.3 points per game here at home.  Much will be made of the fact that the Musketeers are getting back starting PG Edmond Sumner.  But news like that often serves to inflate the number and that's what we have here.  Xavier has most likely reached its apex and I really don't see them climbing any higher than they already are. Marquette, despite what happened against 'Nova earlier in the week, seems to be getting a little better. They are 5-2 ATS as an underdog this year, taking four of those games outright. They have the kind of size up front that can give Xavier all sorts of trouble. 8* Marquette

10* Miami (9:05 ET):  A trip out West has been unkind to the Heat as they've dropped three of four, the only win coming at the expense of an awful Phoenix team. Before this trip got underway, no team had played fewer road games this season than had Miami (only 12!). But, at least as far as the last two games are concerned, it's been a high quality of opponent that they've faced (Warriors, Clippers). That will not be the case here as they continue the trek in Denver, facing a Nuggets team that will be in a clear letdown spot coming off its shocking win over Golden State the other night. Despite that win, Denver remains one of the worst teams in the league and they are 3-7 ATS coming off a SU win as an underdog. Lay the short number.

Defensively, this game shapes up as a mismatch. Prior to the start of this road trip, only San Antonio, who is on a historic pace (see yday's analysis for Cavs-Spurs - I had the Under), had been more efficient than Miami at that end of the court.  The Heat allow just 95.5 points per game, so the last two games have seen them give up far more than they typically allow, but that's predictable considering the opponents they faced.  Denver shocked everyone w/ the 112-110 win over the Warriors on Wednesday. But consider that in their three games previous, they had been averaging just 85.7 points per game! Getting back to defense, the Nuggets are bottom six in terms of efficiency and allow 104.3 PPG here at home.

Denver has won three of its last four, but every win has been by four points or fewer.  Remember when this team had one of the strongest home court edges in the league? That's not the case anymore as they are just 7-11 straight up in the Pepsi Center and 6-11 against the spread. Somehow they beat the Warriors despite shooting only 42.5 percent from the field (were 5 for 22 from three-point range!). Lately, their shooting has been poor (39.5% L4 games), so it's very surprising that they've been able to win multiple games. They have benefited from their opponents not shooting well either (39.9% L4 games) and by dominating the glass. But Miami shoots the ball pretty well (46.1% overall) and is just as strong on the glass as the Nuggets are (teams are roughly equal in rebound rate). I look for them (the Heat) to bounce back. 10* Miami

10* Minnesota (7:05 ET):  The T'wolves are in a really bad way right now as they've lost eight in a row (and 12 of their last 13!), but because this is a rare national TV appearance for them, I don't think that motivation will be any kind of issue. There are also signs of them slowly but surely turning things around. This is actually the second game of a home and home between them and the Thunder and while OKC won the first meeting (in Minnesota), it was the T'wolves leaving "with the cash" as 10.5-pt underdogs (only lost by five). Both teams then had to play the following night.  Minnesota covered again, this time as 7.5-pt dog in Houston (lost by only three) while OKC absolutely crushed Dallas, 108-89, taking advantage of the fact that the Mavs were resting starters (had lost in OT the previous night). I say take the points yet again w/ a desperate Minnesota team that has been much better on the road than at home this year.

While a disastrous 4-17-1 ATS at home, on the road the T'wolves are a very respectable 12-6 ATS, not to mention 7-11 straight up. It's a matter of taking more points obviously, something that is of great benefit to a team that's been averaging only 92.0 PPG its last five. But they did score 104 the other night in Houston and average 101.7 PPG for the year away from home. Oklahoma City isn't great defensively (allowing 100.8 PPG at home) and this is a big number they're being asked to lay here. I was on Minnesota in that first matchup three days ago and remember in the analysis I talked about how poor the Thunder have been against the spread when favored. They're now 14-21 vs. the number in that role and have the worst overall ATS record in the league. That includes 4-14 when facing a team w/ a losing record.

Minnesota did fall behind by as many as 18 on Tuesday, but a strong finish had them easily inside the number by game's end. What they need to do here is take more three-pointers. They are last in the league in attempts from behind the arc.  Oklahoma City has really benefited from some poor shooting by their opponents (41.6 percent overall) their last seven games, but the T'wolves were above that on Tuesday and then even a little sharper in Houston. The Thunder, just 4-10 ATS this year when off a double digit win, are overvalued in this spot. 10* Minnesota

8* Fairfield (7:00 ET):  I'm not sure what happened to the Stags in the second half in Monday's 86-74 home loss to Monmouth. They led going into the half - by seven - but then the Hawks couldn't miss, outscoring them 46-27 the rest of the way. It was the three point shot in particular that doomed Fairfield as Monmouth was 12 of 24 for the game from behind the arc. The Stags actually made 12 three-pointers themselves (on 29 attempts) and shot 50% overall. But curiously, they got to the FT line one LESS time than their opponent, which is odd when you're at home. Despite some recent defensive issues, I look for the Stags to bounce back tonight as they're at home again. They haven't dropped B2B games since opening the season 0-3, a stretch that included a game at North Carolina. Lay the points.

Niagara, on the other hand, is off a very different kind of result than Fairfield. They upset Manhattan on Saturday, 55-53 as 2.5-pt dogs, on a last second tip-in. Even more fortunate for the Purple Eagles there is the fact that Manhattan's final attempt - a three-pointer which went in - came after the final buzzer had sounded. That upset came on the heels of another two point win where Niagara was again the dog as they beat St. Peter's 63-61, a game in which they led almost the whole way, save for 30 seconds late in the second half. But both of those wins came at home for the Purple Eagles. On the road, they are a pretty woeful 1-9 straight up and as you can tell they don't score much, averaging just 62.8 PPG for the year.

This is a double revenge spot for Fairfield, who lost both meetings LY vs. Niagara, which were decided by a total of three points. There is no doubt that the Stags come in as the better team this year, particularly offensively as they are averaging 81.1 PPG here at home where they are 5-2 SU for the season. Prior to pulling those B2B upsets, Niagara was just 3-12 (SU) overall. While they've done well as an underdog (9-2 ATS) this year, the fact is this line is too short as Fairfield should bounce back from a tough defeat and gain a measure of revenge for last season. 8* Fairfield

8* Arizona (9:00 ET): Arizona drew somewhat of a "short straw" as they opened Pac 12 play w/ three consecutive road games, the last two of which resulted in narrow losses. Last Thursday saw them rally back from a 14-point second half deficit at UCLA, only to lose on a Bryce Alford three-pointer w/ 1.8 seconds remaining. Two days later, the dreaded second road game in three nights became even more of a challenge as the Wildcats game at USC went to four overtimes and ended up 103-101 not in their favor. Still ranked 18th in the country, I expect Sean Miller's team to bounce back tonight in their long-awaited return to Tucson. They are an incredible 44-0 straight up here at the McKale Center the L3 seasons (nation's longest home win streak), winning by an impressive average of 22.2 points per game. Lay the number.

Now you might be concerned about laying double digits to a Washington team that's 3-0 SU in Pac 12 play, especially considering Arizona is now w/o its star freshman Allonzo Trier. But, make no mistake about it, this is a case of "buying low" on Arizona and "selling high" on Washington. The latter may be unbeaten in conference play so far, but all three wins have been by four points or less and two went to overtime. The other saw them rally back from a 22-point deficit, at home, against USC.  So the Huskies could just as easily be 0-3 SU in three games where they were a slight dog each time.  Despite all the OT periods, defense still has to be a concern for this team. They have allowed at least 83 pts in five of their last six games, one of those being an outright loss to Oakland as 11-pt home favorites. 

Arizona had been allowing just 61.3 PPG prior to conference play getting underway and I expect them to "tighten the screws" now that they're back at home. Washington has been able to get away w/ some pretty lousy shooting this year (just 38.5% from the field in conference play), particularly from three-point range when they're away from home (29.4%). But that won't be the case here.  'Zona destroyed them last year, up in Seattle, winning by 24 points as 11-pt chalk. Due to recent form, the favorite comes in greatly undervalued for this one. 8* Arizona

8* Louisville (9:00 ET):  After rolling through non-conference play w/ the best scoring differential in the country, Rick Pitino's Louisville team has struggled a bit of late. It started the day after X-Mas, in the final non-conference game of the year, a two-point loss to Kentucky. The final score there somewhat undersells how poorly the Cardinals played as they trailed by double digits in the second half and it bears mentioning that UK is clearly "down" this year. L'ville rebounded w/ B2B close victories to open ACC play, but then lost again Sunday, this time at Clemson, 66-62 as seven-point favorites. But that loss no longer looks as bad after the Tigers beat Duke yday. Welcoming in a Pitt team that's off a SU win as an underdog (over Notre Dame), I feel all the value is on the Cardinals tonight. Lay the points.

In 11 home games, L'ville has outscored its opponents by a whopping 32.2 points per game. Granted, there's some pretty weak competition mixed in there. But that's still really impressive scoring differential to own and following five consecutive ATS defeats, I look for the Cards to get back to business here in a battle of ranked teams.  The team had an "off-shooting" day against Clemson on Sunday as they were just 35.3 percent from the field (3 for 23 from 3pt range!), which nullified another strong effort on the defensive end where they allowed the Tigers to shoot only 32.6% for the game. They also dominated on the glass w/ a 53-31 rebounding edge. But what ended up being the difference was a massive 44-16 edge in free throw attempts for Clemson. Talk about some "home cooking!"

Now Louisville is the home team and here they are allowing just 54.5 PPG. So, this will definitely be the stiffest test yet for a Pitt team that is averaging 85.3 PPG.  As far as "true" road games go, this will only be the Panthers' second. The first came Saturday in South Bend when they upset Notre Dame thanks to a season-high 10 three-pointers made. This is also the best free throw shooting team in the country right now. Yet, it is Louisville that owns the distinction of being the ONLY team in the country to rate in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Despite recent results, they are going to be just fine moving forward. 8* Louisville

10* Under Cavs/Spurs (8:05 ET):  San Antonio has been downright ridiculous this year. While the focus has been on Golden State, all the Spurs have done is turn in the best point differential we've ever seen through 40 games (+14.1 PPG!). They are also a perfect 22-0 SU at home, holding teams to a league low 89.3 PPG. If that's not enough, they own the league's best pointspread record (28-12 ATS) as well. But, in all due respect, Greg Popovich's team has faced a relatively "light" schedule to this point; in fact in terms of opponents' win percentage, it has been the easiest in the league. With equally red hot Cleveland (8-game win streak) coming to town, I'm laying off the side and instead playing the total. Take the Under.

I already mentioned that the Spurs are the top defensive team in the league. Per 100 possessions, they allow 4.6 PPG fewer than the #2 team and are on pace to be the most efficient defensive team in 11 seasons. Since losing on Opening Night at OKC (only time they've been a dog all season), they have allowed 100+ pts in a game only six times, never consecutively. Going back to December 7th, they've allowed fewer than 100 in 17 of their last 19 games. But they aren't the only top tier defensive team in this matchup. Cleveland also ranks in the top five in the league in terms of defensive efficiency and held Dallas to just 107 pts even w/ overtime Tues night. This season, the Cavs are a perfect 10-0 Under when coming off a non-conference game. Both of these teams rank in the bottom five in the league in terms of pace of play, so there shouldn't be an abundance of possessions.

Of late, Cleveland has been far exceeding their YTD scoring average on offense. They topped 120 pts in three consecutive games last week, but the opponents were Washington, Minnesota & Philadelphia. Needless to say, this is a step up in class. Again, remember their last game went to overtime, so the final number of total points there is a bit misleading. San Antonio has also been rather prolific offensively of late, averaging 112.2 PPG their last five, a number which is due to come down as it will be difficult to continue shooting over 50% on a nightly basis (something they've done in six of their last eight games!). With both teams exceeding offensive/defensive averages their L5 games, I'd say we are due for a "correction." Cleveland has stayed Under in all four games this year in which it has been an underdog. 10* Under Cavs/Spurs

10* Notre Dame (9:00 ET):  Remember when the Fighting Irish used to be unbeatable here in South Bend under HC Mike Brey?  Here, they are coming off an 86-82 home loss to Pittsburgh over the weekend and while it was their first loss of the season at Purcell Pavillion, Notre Dame is now just 10-23 ATS its L33 home games. I look for them to get back on track tonight though against a Georgia Tech team that's probably feeling a little too good about itself following a 68-64 upset of Virginia (were 6-pt dogs) on Saturday. The Yellow Jackets are 3-0 ATS in ACC play, but lost at both North Carolina and Pittsburgh. In fact, the final score vs. Pittsburgh was nearly identical to Notre Dame's result against the Panthers. Lay the points.

Overall, the Fighting Irish are just 3-3 straight up and 1-5 against the spread their last six games. In addition to losing to Pitt, they've also fallen to Indiana (neutral court) and at Virginia. But there's really no shame in any of the three SU losses and the team is still averaging 83.1 PPG at home this season. They shot the ball well against Pitt (54.2 FG%) and in fact are one of the better shooting teams in the entire country at 50.6 percent (5th). They shot 62.3 percent in a road win over Boston College last week and I think that the Fighting Irish will find much success offensively against a Yellow Jackets team that's permitting an average of 76.7 points in six games outside of Atlanta this year.

Defensively then, Notre Dame obviously has issues. The primary one is that visiting teams have been able to come in and connect on 41.3 percent of their three-point attempts.  That can't continue. The offensive vs. defensive dichotomy under Brey has always been quite striking, but I'm not sure it's ever been as pronounced this year as KenPom has the Irish rate 3rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, but 214th in adjusted defensive efficiency.  That's pretty insane. Nevertheless, Georgia Tech is off perhaps its biggest ACC win in five seasons under HC Brian Gregory and will be in full letdown mode here. This is a much cheaper price than what ND was asked to lay last year when the Yellow Jackets visited.  10* Notre Dame

10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET):  Despite losing Carmelo Anthony to a sprained ankle early in the second half, the Knicks somehow pulled out a fifth victory in six games (6-0 ATS) last night, beating Boston 120-114. I'm not ashamed to admit that I was on the Celtics there and making things all the more head-scratching is that rookie Kristaps Porzingis battled foul trouble for much of the game. Though I was on New York earlier in the year when they blew out Brooklyn, I'm going "the other way" here as the Knicks are now being asked to lay more points on the road than they were at home in that 108-91 victory last month. Plus, the potential loss of Anthony will be difficult to overcome. Take the points.

While the Knicks have been trending in a positive direction, it's a much different feel a borough away as Brooklyn has hit rock bottom. With their future looking rather bleak, the Nets decided to fire HC Lionel Hollins and GM Billy King earlier this week. Who can blame them? The team has lost five straight - both SU and ATS - and were double digit dogs in the last two. They were unfortunate to draw San Antonio in the first game after the changes were made as typically you'll see a temporary spike in play when a team makes a coaching change. The Nets certainly weren't going to beat the Spurs, but I feel they can beat the Knicks as they are catching them at an opportune time. There may be no Anthony and it's the second game of a back to back. Thus, I don't think anyone would fault New York if they didn't have their 'A game.'  Brooklyn, on the other hand, needs to show a little fire in the wake of the organizational changes.

The Knicks haven't been particularly good when playing w/o rest, going 3-5 straight up in that situation this year and the one time they went from home to away, they lost by 15 points. If Anthony can't go here (and I suspect he will not), that's 21.6 points per game (highest average on team) gone from the lineup. This will only be the third time all season that the Knicks will be a road favorite. The Nets have somehow managed to lose 10 in a row at home, so again, they should be motivated in this spot.  10* Brooklyn

8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Early in the season, the Hornets had been one of the real surprises in the league. As recently as three weeks ago, only four teams in the league were outscoring their opponents by larger margin per 100 possessions. However, 2016 has been somewhat of a disaster. They've lost every game in the new year while at the same time going 1-5 against the spread. Overall, they are just 2-10 SU/ATS their L12 games. The biggest issue during the slide has been defense, or rather a lack of it, as five straight teams topped 100 points against them before losses to the Clippers and Nuggets at the end of a four-game West Coast swing. But, with them having two days off and back at home, I'm going to call for a bounce back here as Nic Batum (second leading scorer) has returned. Charlotte's home record is still 13-7 straight up. Take the points.

Atlanta has beaten Charlotte twice this year, but both games were decided by three points or less. The Hornets did not shoot the ball well either time. It was a home & home very early in the season and in Atlanta, they were at 40.9 percent from the field. Two days later, here at home, they were at 37.2 percent. Interestingly, they shot well from three-point range (26 of 67) so that means they were a somewhat unfathomable 42 of 107 on two-point attempts. Now with Batum back in the fold, I'd expect a much higher percentage tonight. For the season, the team averages 103.1 PPG here at home. They've had an adequate time to recover from the West Coast trip as well and are 4-2 ATS this season when playing w/ exactly two days rest.

The Hawks were lights out from the field in recent victories over the Sixers and Bulls.  Both games were decided by double digits and saw the Hawks shoot better than 52 percent while averaging 123 PPG.  It's only natural for them to come back down to Earth. At the same time, Charlotte has been below 37 percent shooting its last two games, so that's another case that they're due to turn it around offensively. But defense may be the deciding factor here. The Hornets are still only allowing 98.6 PPG at home. Over the L5 games, the Hawks are giving up 107.2! 8* Charlotte

8* UNLV (10:00 ET):  So, UNLV has fired Dave Rice. I suppose given how much the Rebels are underachieving this year, the news shouldn't be too big of a shock. Taking over a team that has lost three in a row, interim HC Todd Simon has a tall - and perhaps unenviable - task ahead of him, but I feel that tonight is an excellent "buy low" opportunity on the team at home. Consider that all three recent Rebels' losses were by three points or less, the last two coming on the road. They are seven points away from being 3-0 instead of 0-3 SU in Mountain West play and obviously we'd be having a much different conversation as Rice would still be employed. Look for the Rebels to come out and play inspired ball tonight in Vegas. Lay the points.

The home court edge has not meant much in recent UNLV-New Mexico matchups w/ the road team winning outright all four times the past two seasons. But to me, that's all the more reason to believe that the home team will turn it around here. New Mexico is just 2-1 on the road and while they won their last away game, 77-62 as five-point dogs at Fresno State, they did lose at both Purdue and USC while surrendering an average of 80 PPG. The Lobos are likely feeling pretty good about themselves right about now as they rolled to a 77-59 win over Utah State in Albuquerque Saturday. But not only did they shoot the ball well in that game, their opponents were a pretty woeful 34.3% from the field including 6 for 29 from three-point range.  That was a 43-18 game at halftime as USU went 10 minutes w/o a field goal in the first half. Impressive as it sounds, I just don't believe that performance is indicative of what you should be expecting from this Lobos team.

UNLV has talent; there's no denying that. Rice brought in B2B strong recruiting classes, including NBA prospect Stephen Zimmerman. But the freshman has struggled a bit and for some reason is only sixth on the team in FG attempts. One issue Rice had was managing his rotation. Look for that to be a point of emphasis for Simon and I expect Zimmerman to shoot more moving forward. Though they've already lost outright four times as a favorite, UNLV can absolutely salvage this season and it starts tonight. 8* UNLV

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  What's that Albert Einstein quote regarding insanity? I feel I'm approaching that point here w/ the T'wolves, who are an unfathomable 3-17-1 ATS at home this year. I've been on the wrong end of a number of those losses of late, though they were close on Sunday as they lost here to Dallas by only six points, getting four. Still though, I'm not sure if I've ever seen any NBA team perform so poorly against the pointspread on its home floor. As I've written about previously, the "worm is likely to turn" as the oddsmakers become more generous, like they are here w/ Oklahoma City coming to town. The Thunder have their own pointspread woes to be concerned over as like Minnesota they're only 14-23-1 ATS for the year (tied for league worst) and that includes a 13-20 mark when favored. Take the points here as Minnesota is well overdue to cover.

The Thunder are off a bad 115-100 loss in Portland their last time out as they blew an eight-point lead w/ just over three minutes remaining. Part of that was the Blazers connecting on 19 three-pointers, which wouldn't seem to be a concern here as Minnesota is attempting the fewest number of 3PA in the league. But the fact remains that since X-Mas, OKC has covered just two of nine games. This is their third road game in five night and they have a home game vs. Dallas tomorrow. Defensively, they have issues as they are allowing 103.1 PPG on the road, including 114 PPG on the current trip. Those games, against the Lakers & Blazers, are ones where you'd think the Thunder would win convincingly, but alas they did not. OKC is 1-7 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite this year + 4-13 ATS when facing a team w/ a losing record.

Minnesota clearly needs to start taking more threes as overall they are averaging a pretty woeful 88.8 PPG their last five. They've gone 0-6 straight up and against the spread their last six and dropped 10 of 11 overall SU (2-9 ATS).  As bad as things have been, two of their last three losses did come by six points or less and they did cover a game at San Antonio late last month. You have to imagine that they'll start to play better at home (can't be any worse) and I say it starts tonight where they'll stay inside the number.  8* Minnesota

10* Boston (7:35 ET):  I won't hesitate to say that the Celtics are better than their record. Despite currently being in ninth place in the East, they have the Conference's fourth best point differential. What has hurt them is a league-worst 0-5 SU mark in games decided by three points or less, the latest loss coming Sunday in Memphis where they blew a 21-point third quarter lead in Brad Stevens' return to the bench. The final score was 101-98 and it was Boston's fifth loss in the last six games overall. Perception has started to swing against them, but I feel that makes this is an excellent "buy low" spot as they are an underdog at the Knicks, a distinction that my own power rankings would disagree with. Take the points.

New York has covered five in a row (4-1 SU) and their only SU loss during that time came by a single point at San Antonio. They are much improved this year, but keep in mind they'd lost five of six themselves before this current streak got underway. Boston took three of the four meetings last season as well as the first this season, 100-91 as 8.5-point favorites. That number right there, as well as the result, indicate that there is indeed a value we're getting w/ the Celtics on the road here.  The Knicks did win three in a row as underdogs here in 2016 and then bounced back from the loss to San Antonio by downing Milwaukee, 100-88.  They've averaged 103.0 PPG on 48 percent shooting these last five games, which is noticeably above their season averages, so I'd expect them to start coming back down to Earth.

Defensively, the Knicks have allowed just 95.2 PPG over their last five, which is also significantly better than their season average. But Boston is due for a turnaround offensively as this marks the first time all season that they have failed to score 100+ points in three consecutive games. It's also the third time the C's have been on a three-game losing streak. They are 2-0 SU/ATS in this spot previously, having beaten Washington and Minnesota by an average of 17 PPG. Again, they led the Grizzlies by 21, in Memphis, on Sunday. Avery Bradley is back in the lineup and this is a team likely to turn things around. 10* Boston

10* Virginia (7:00 ET):  The 13th ranked Cavaliers have dropped two in a row, both as favorites, on the road. First it was at Virginia Tech, 70-68, as 12.5-pt chalk. Then, 68-64 at Georgia Tech as a six-point choice. This is the first time since 2013-14 that Tony Bennett's team has lost consecutive games. Between then and now, they had been a perfect 8-0 straight up coming off a loss w/ every victory coming by a double digit margin. I was surprised to find that it was UVA's defense that really let them down against Va and Ga Tech. They allowed 66 points per game, which doesn't sound like much, but that's six PPG more than their season average. Tonight, the Hoos return home (where they are 7-0 SU) to host Miami in a crucial ACC battle and I think they'll be up for the challenge. Lay the points.

Miami hasn't lost since the end of November when they shockingly fell at the buzzer to Northeastern as 16-pt home faves. That's their only loss. They've won eight in a row including B2B 13-point victories (at home) over Syracuse and Florida State to open ACC play. They've averaged a whopping 90 PPG on the road, which is unsustainable, particularly considering tonight marks just their second "true" road game of the season (that scoring average includes four neutral site games as well). The Canes did not fare well in their last visit to Charlottesville (lost by 25) and then last year fell to the Hoos by nine at home. Over the L3 seasons, the U is actually just 8-12 SU/8-11-1 ATS off an ACC win.

This Virginia team has many impressive wins on its resume. Remember that they beat both Villanova and West Virginia by double digits. They haven't rebounded well in the B2B losses and I feel will be a desperate team coming into tonight's game. They remain in the top 10 in the country in scoring defense (60.9 PPG) and assist to turnover ratio. Offensively, the team also shoots the ball quite well; 49% overall including 39% from three-point range. It was a combination of an off-shooting night and Georgia Tech going 8 for 15 from 3-pt range themselves Saturday. Facing what would be their first three-game losing streak in five years, Virginia will come out strong here. 10* Virginia

8* Miami (10:35 ET): I do not anticipate the Heat getting "blown out" here. By the rankings, they will be one of the toughest opponents that Golden State will have faced all season. I currently have Miami rated sixth in my own personal power rankings and aside from a visit to San Antonio, they won't be getting even close to this many points in a game all season. While that's obviously true for any team visiting the Warriors, the difference here is the Heat can actually do something about it. They are top six in the league in terms of defensive efficiency and give up just 93.4 points per game on the road. While 9-0 straight up, Golden State is only 5-4 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points and this is the best opponent they have faced when laying that many all season. Take the points.

Coming off an ugly 98-83 loss at Utah (no rest) Saturday night, I anticipate Miami being highly motivated. While it's true that they've played the fewest number of road games in the league thus far - just 14 - it's also true that they've been an underdog just seven times previously and are a respectable 3-4 straight up in those games. They are also 7-7 SU on the road and basically dead even in pts scored vs. allowed. They'll clearly have to be better offensively than they were at Utah, which is likely as Dwyane Wade was just 3 for 17 from the field in that game. As a team, they have alternated good and bad offensive showings over the L7 games and haven't gone B2B games w/o scoring 100+ points since before Christmas. The Heat have fared well vs. the West this year (11-3 SU/8-5-1 ATS) and are 7-3 straight up following a SU loss as a favorite (6-4 ATS).

Golden State is rolling again as they've won six in a row; the last three coming on the road by a combined 53 points. But the competition there was weak as the Lakers, Portland and Sacramento are all below .500. In fact, this will be the Warriors first game against a team currently sporting a better than .500 record since the loss to Dallas on December 30th. They haven't lost at home this year and have an impressive scoring margin here, but are only 5-7 ATS vs. the Eastern Conference. This will be a tough game for the defending champs. 8* Miami

10* Chattanooga (6:00 ET): This shapes up as a big game in the Southern Conference as the preseason favorite (Chattanooga) is off a loss and in danger of falling two games back in the standings of tonight's opponent, Wofford. The Mocs are still favored though, and for good reason, as before being upset at Furman Saturday, they'd won eight in a row and were 13-2 SU overall for the season. They hold wins over Illinois, Georgia and Dayton. As fired up as Wofford might be for this game, they come in off a very fortunate win and simply aren't getting enough "help" from the linesmakers to entice me here as their 5-20 straight up record as an underdog (0-7 SU/1-6 ATS this season) speaks volumes. Lay the points.

Chattanooga is 11-0 SU this season when scoring 70+ points. They were held to only 55 in Saturday's loss to Furman as they shot just 42.6 percent from the field and were outrebounded. They also turned the ball over 20 times and were just 9 for 19 from the free throw line (71% FT shooting team). Something to keep in mind here is that the Mocs are 6-2 straight up the previous two seasons coming off a conference loss. The road team has actually won three straight in this SoCon rivalry w/ UTC winning each of the last two years here in Spartanburg. In fact, UTC has led Wofford for a total of 127:11 (out of a possible 160 minutes) of game time the four meetings overall, so they've had their number.

Wofford was lucky to win its last time out. They trailed Samford by nine w/ just over two minutes remaining, but closed the game on a stunning 14-0 run to not only win the game, but leave w/ the cash (as 4.5-pt favorites) as well.  The Terriers still have a losing record (6-9 SU), however, and had lost four in a row prior to the start of conference play. That's in stark contrast to the way UTC largely dominated it's non-conference slate of games.  One might point to the continued absence of reigning SoCon Player of the Year Casey Jones as the reason the Mocs lost to Furman, but they were w/o him when they went into Dayton and won outright as 12.5-pt pups. Simply put, this is the best team in their league and they should bounce back from a rare defeat.  10* Chattanooga

10* Minnesota (5:05 ET): Here we go again. "Chasing" is never good, but the bottom line is that the T'wolves HAVE to begin to improve upon this woeful 3-16-1 ATS home record of theirs and this is yet another instance where my own personal power rankings indicate they are a strong value. The team has lost 9 of 10 overall (2-8 ATS) as they ran into a buzzsaw known as Cleveland Friday night and the Cavs couldn't miss, hitting 53.1 percent of their shots in a 125-99 romp. The game prior, it was Minnesota's offense that let them down as they held Denver to 35.8% percent shooting, yet lost 78-74 due to a nine-point fourth quarter. This evening, I'll call for them to "put it all together," finally.  Take the points.

Dallas also comes in off a loss, one that came in rather heartbreaking fashion, as they lost at the buzzer in Milwaukee Friday night. After a strong finish to December, that marked the fourth time in the last five games where the Mavs failed to cover as they barely led after an 18-point first quarter.  They certainly weren't afraid to hoist three-point shots (NBA season-high 44 attempts!) in their last game, so it's pretty disappointing that they still only scored 95 points.  At just 10-10 straight up, this team is pretty mediocre on the road, and overall they are outscoring foes by less than one point per game this season. Defensively, the Mavs are allowing 102.9 points per game on the road.

As they figure to face a three-point barrage, Minnesota must tighten up defensively in this one. Opponents are making 37.3 percent of their three-point attempts the L10 games against this team w/ Cleveland going 13 of 27 Friday. But a lot of those were well defended shots made by good shooters (JR Smith made seven). As rough as things have been of late, the T'wolves are still only being outscored by less than four points per 100 possessions and you have to think that they're at least due to start covering some of these home games. No other team in the league is even close to as bad at the betting window at home as the T'wolves are.  But they'd actually been favored in a surprising number of games recently and I believe getting points, they are a solid value. 10* Minnesota

8* Louisville (12:00 ET):  Clemson has opened ACC play in a quite profitable way. The Tigers have covered all three league games so far, including B2B outright upsets of Florida State and Syracuse (were also 15.5 pt dogs against UNC). It'll be a big day on campus tomorrow night as the school's football team plays for the National Title, so as a result, I wouldn't be too shocked if the student body wasn't all that fired up for this one.  But Louisville should be as they're coming off a couple of close calls against Wake Forest and North Carolina State over the past week. Save for the game against Kentucky (day after X-Mas), Rick Pitino's Cardinals hardly played a daunting non-conf slate, but tip your cap to a +24.9 per game scoring margin for the season (best in the country!). I'll lay the points here.

Against NC State on Thursday, L'ville shot the ball very well and actually led by as many as 16 pts in the second half. But the final margin ended up being much closer (five points) as they let the Wolfpack in through "the back door."  The fact that it ended up being a non-cover (were seven-point favorites), I think helped create a little value tonight. The Cards have actually now failed to cover four straight, so I feel this is a good opportunity to "buy low" on a team that hasn't played up to par defensively the last few games. They still are #1 among ACC schools defensively, allowing just 58.3 PPG, while offensively they have shot the ball well all season (50.8 FG%). Thursday was the 10th time in 13 games that they shot better than 50 percent this season.

Clemson is also relatively strong defensively, but the concern tonight in Death Valley has to be an offense which ranks 14th (out of 15) in the ACC w/ just 69.8 PPG on 43.8 percent. The Tigers exceeded that average against both Florida State and Syracuse, but this is a step up in class and my guess is they'll struggle with the same L'ville defense that at one point caused NC State to miss 14 of 15 shots at one point in the first half. Clemson's win over Syracuse came in overtime Tuesday, so that result certainly could have gone either way. This team had lost three in a row to end December and isn't likely to replicate Tuesday's 53.8% percent shooting here. 8* Louisville

10* Texas Tech (9:00 ET):  Even though they've had four days to recoup, this is obviously still a tough spot for #1 Kansas, who outlasted #2 Oklahoma in triple overtime thriller Monday night.  The Jayhawks, who had better depth than the Sooners, seemed to simply outlast them at Allen Fieldhouse after trailing by as many as 10 in the second half. But four players still ended up logging 43 or more minutes and both Perry Ellis and Frank Mason III played 53. Even coming close to duplicating the kind of emotion they had Monday is a near impossibility, which could mean big trouble against an 11-2 Texas Tech team that allows just 63.3 PPG at home (where they are unbeaten) for HC Tubby Smith.  Take the points.

Though they had an impressive 10-game win streak snapped their last time out (at Iowa State), the Red Raiders still managed to cover (were 11-pt dogs) in the 76-69 loss Wednesday night.  They've now covered the spread in each of their last eight lined games.  As mentioned before, Smith has this team playing tremendous defense as they allow just 38.9 percent shooting for the year and Iowa State was one of the top shooting teams in the entire country and made only 39.7 percent (a season low for them) against TT.  Kansas will obviously be the toughest test to date, but this is a team whose only losses came against Utah and Iowa State and were by a combined 17 points.  It was actually just a three-point game w/ just over three minutes to go at ISU.

Though they've typically been near the bottom of the conference the last couple of seasons, Texas Tech has always been a "tough out" here in Lubbock. Not only are they 9-0 SU here this season (6-0 ATS), but also 33-12 SU the L3 seasons and 23-11 ATS. They've prevailed by an average margin of 15 points per game so far in 2015-16.  Kansas has played only two "true" road games so far, one of them against Chaminade, a D-II school that hosts the Maui Invitational. Look for the Red Raiders' defense to keep them in this one until the end. 10* Texas Tech

8* Under Raptors/Sixers (7:35 ET):  Toronto just held Washington, a team that plays at one of the fastest paces in the entire league, to only 88 points last night, so it stands to reason that they should have little difficulty keeping Philadelphia, the least efficient offensive team in the league, in check tonight. In fact, despite not having DeMarre Carroll, the Raptors have turned in B2B dominant defensive performances as they held Brooklyn to just 74 points Wednesday. They'll look to continue the surge here against an opponent that averages just 93.0 points per game. Curiously, the total for this game is significantly higher than it was for the first meeting when they final score was 96-76.  Take the Under.

The only concern that I have here is the fact that Philadelphia is allowing 107.1 points per game at home and just got torched here by Atlanta, giving up 126. They also allowed 130 last Saturday against the Clippers (on the road).  That explains the total being so much higher than it was for the first meeting w/ Toronto (last month), but w/ this being the second game of a back to back, I don't see the Raptors' offense being on full display tonight. They've failed to top 100 pts in B2B games anyway and haven't shot 50% in seven straight games now. The Under is 13-5 when they take on a team w/ a losing record and 5-1 on the road when the number falls into the 200 to 204.5 point range.

Meanwhile, the Sixers offensive numbers are downright pathetic as they average just 93 points per 100 possessions, which is 4.5 points less than the next worst team.  Now the defense has arguably been even worse - at least lately - as their last three opponents have all shot better than 53% from the floor. But that's due to regress.  Again, the total for the first meeting this season was 191.5, which is way down from what it is here and the teams stayed way Under that number (just 172 total points).  I see a ton of value on the Under here as the Raptors are 13-8 Under on the road due to their offensive numbers going down and their defensive numbers actually going up. There's an average of only 194.8 PPG scored in their away games this season. 8* Under Raptors/Sixers

10* Orlando (7:05 ET):  Both of these teams played last night. Orlando won, Washington lost. I expect the results to be similar here again tonight. This is a big one for the Magic, who have lost an unfathomable 11 straight times to the division rival Wizards.  Already this season, they are 0-3 SU against them, including a one-point loss here at home back in October. The most recent meeting took place on New Year's Day, in the Nation's Capital, and there it was the Wiz prevailing 103-91 as two-point chalk.  But, I think there's significant value on Scott Skiles' team as a short home favorite here as they are 67 percent ATS in all other games this year not against Washington. The Wizards have lost their last three games, all at home, and continue to be a major disappointment w/ a negative scoring margin due to their awful defense. Lay the points.

Last night, however, it was the offense that failed Washington as they scored only 88 points in a loss to the Raptors.  Making the final result even more depressing is the fact Toronto turned the ball over a season-high 23 times. They (Washington) shot just 39.3% for the game, the second time in the last three that they were below 40 percent. If this team is not scoring, then they have little chance given that they also allow 104.1 points per game. Consider that earlier this week against Cleveland they shot better than 55 percent from the field and STILL lost. As a road underdog of three points or less, they are 0-3 against the spread this season. Remember that they still don't have Bradley Beal (leg).

In the three previous meetings w/ Orlando, Washington has been fortunate in that the Magic have been just awful from three-point range.  I mean, really awful. We're talking 13 of 64, which is just over 20 percent. Considering Orlando is at 35 percent for the year from behind the arc, I think it's accurate to deem the Wizards "lucky," especially given how poor they typically are defensively.  The Magic, meanwhile, held Brooklyn to 77 points in an easy road win Friday that snapped a four-game losing streak. They are now a somewhat surprising 12-2 SU when favored this year, 9-5 ATS.  10* Orlando

10* Florida (1:30 ET):  Had you "bought low" on LSU over the last seven days, the reward would have been a pair of outright victories to open SEC play as the Tigers first went to Vanderbilt (as 10-pt dogs) and won 90-82 and then followed it up w/ an even more impressive "bell to bell" beatdown of Kentucky (85-67) at home. I was on Ben Simmons and company last Saturday at Vandy, but after watching them cover the spread by almost 40 points in the last two games, I'd say it's probably time to "sell high" on this team. This afternoon, they visit Florida, who is off a loss (at Tennessee) and thus won't be lacking motivation. The Tigers still have defensive issues, particularly on the road, and the Gators are a much different animal here in Gainesville.  Lay the points.

It probably goes w/o saying that Tuesday's win over Kentucky stands out as LSU's "best" performance of the season. It's also clear that John Calipari probably has his worst team in awhile in Lexington. Nevertheless, we won't take anything away from the Tigers for what they did, but it was at home and Tim Quarterman's 21 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists were certainly all unexpected. It also helped that the Wildcats shot only 32.1 percent in the first half, turned it over 14 times in the game (led to 22 LSU points) and missed 11 of 23 free throws. Those elements certainly won't be present every game for the Tigers and I submit to you the fact that they are still just 1-4 SU away from Baton Rouge, allowing 84.2 points per game.

Defensively, it is obvious who the better team is going to be Saturday. Florida allows just 63.5 points per game on 38.2 percent shooting and considering LSU shoots only 40.5% on the road (including neutral site games), expect Simmons and the rest of his teammates to struggle here. Also, when Florida gets its own three-point shooting going, look out. So far, they are at a very low 28.9 percent from behind the arc, but w/ LSU allowing its opposition to make 38.2 percent on the road, today could be the day for the turnaround. What happened Wednesday in Knoxville (Tennessee scoring 53 pts in the 1st half!) was an outlier and I'll call for the Gators to bounce back here. 10* Florida

8* Duke (12:00 ET):  Can Va Tech make it back to back upsets in one week? Highly unlikely. After besting #4 Virginia on Monday, 70-68 as 12.5-pt dogs, the Hokies now visit Cameron Indoor to play Duke. That upset of Virginia came at home, which is obviously significant, not only because Va Tech has played just one "true" road game to this point (at Radford!), but also due to the fact Duke is so good on their own floor. Coach K's team is 9-0 SU this year here, averaging a whopping 94.8 PPG, and today marks the ACC home opener. The Blue Devils are coming off B2B lopsided road wins over Boston College and Wake Forest to start conference play and their last nine wins have all come by at least 16 points. Lay the number here.

Go ahead and "tip your cap" to the job Buzz Williams is doing in Blacksburg, but while Duke has been dominant so far in ACC play, Williams' Hokies are a little fortunate to be 2-0 SU. They opened w/ a 73-68 overtime win against NC State, a game where they erased a 16-point second half deficit. Then somehow they managed to defeat Virginia despite the Hoos shooting 49 percent from the field (NC State shot only 32.3 percent). A major key to those two victories was the fact the Hokies turned the ball over a total of only 12 times. That's after turning it over 22 times in a loss New Year's Eve to West Virginia. Also, if they thought Virginia was tough to defend, Duke is even more lethal. The Blue Devils have shot better than 50 percent in four straight games and in seven of their last eight wins.

Consider that Va Tech had only two wins all of last year in ACC play, so this start is definitely surprising (dog both games). What Duke is doing is not that surprising though, even w/o Amile Jefferson, which has left Coach K with a somewhat short rotation. At some point, that may catch up w/ the Blue Devils, but not here.  In four of the last six games, they have topped 90 points. Va Tech simply doesn't have the kind of firepower needed to "keep up." After scoring 80+ pts in the previous game, Duke is an impressive 28-14 against the spread the L3 seasons. If ranking #1 in the country in offensive efficiency wasn't enough, they have also made more free throws than their opponents have attempted this season. 8* Duke

10* Phoenix (9:35 ET):  Things had been going quite horribly for the Suns before they beat Charlotte, 111-102 here at home Wednesday night. The nadir for them was most certainly an awful 97-77 loss to the Lakers the game prior, but as the win over the Hornets demonstrated, this is probably a good time to "buy low" on Phoenix after they'd lost nine in a row at one point. Here at home, Jeff Hornacek's team has been far more respectable, going 9-10 straight up (as opposed to 4-15 SU away).  Tonight's opponent, Miami, hasn't played many road games this season (league-low 12!) and they're only 6-6 SU so far. While the majority of the betting public will look at this line and likely only see a short number w/ the better team, don't make that same mistake. There's some really good value on Phoenix here and I'm taking the points.

I actually just played against the Heat in their last game when they were beaten at home by the Knicks (on ESPN), 98-90 as eight-point favorites. That loss came on the heels of three straight wins, but as I went on in my analysis for Knicks-Heat, Miami was fortunate to beat Indiana on Monday as they rallied back from an 18-point deficit at home and won in overtime. Somehow they got away w/ playing only five road games in the month of December and while their first of January went quite well (97-75 win over Washington, fact is that they average just 93.0 points per game away from home. While the Heat have been solid on the defensive end of the floor much of the season, they should have some difficulty containing a Phoenix side that averages 105.4 PPG here at home.

Somewhat incredibly, the Suns have lost to Miami ten straight times. This will be the first meeting this year after going 0-4 ATS the previous two seasons. Phoenix connected on 19 three-pointers in their win over Charlotte two nights ago while Miami allowed the Knicks to shoot better than 55 percent overall from the field. Again, I look for the hosts to score more than enough to stay within this number. My own personal power rankings say this line is about right, but again, the Suns seem to be at their "lowest point" and that's often the best time to take a team. 10* Phoenix

8* Utah (9:00 ET): What has happened to the Utes? After starting the season strong (11-2 SU first 13 games), they've dropped their first two in conference play, both on the road. Clients/regular readers may recall that exactly one week ago I went against them as they lost the first of those two games, 70-68 (as five-point favorites) at Stanford.  Two days later, in a tough spot, they fell 71-58 at California. The Pac 12 schedule-makers certainly did Utah no favors by giving them three straight road games to open league play, but with several days to prepare, I feel they'll be ready for Colorado here.  The Buffaloes had dropped B2B games themselves (including one at Cal) before winning at Stanford Sunday, 56-55. I think the better team is getting points here.

Three of Utah's losses this season have been by double digits, but keep in mind this is a team that's also beaten Duke, San Diego State, Texas Tech and BYU (who they won't be playing again anytime soon, apparently). They have center Jakob Poeltl, a potential NBA lottery pick, who is averaging 17.7 points, 9.3 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game. He'll be the best player on the floor tonight. Being that they are coming off B2B losses, look for the Utes to be highly motivated from the start. They destroyed Colorado not once, but twice, last season as they prevailed by margins of 25 and 28 points. While they are third in the conference in scoring (81.9 PPG), the Utes issue has been defending the three-point line. Opponents are making 39.7 percent of 3-pt attempts against them, which is a very high number that I'd say is due to start coming down. 

Colorado may be unbeaten at home (8-0 SU), but they have turnover issues w/ the second worst margin in the conference. Though they've played the same conference slate Utah has, the Buffs were not tested as much earlier in the year during the non-conference portion of the schedule.  They live and die w/ the three-point shot, which is nice when they're going in, but tonight (despite Utah's issues guarding said shot) I wouldn't be surprised if they are line for an "off-night." CU nearly blew a 16-pt lead at Stanford Sunday night and won't enjoy the same rebounding edge they had there in this game. 8* Utah

10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Well, I'm coming back with the T'Wolves again. That's somewhat scary given just how bad they've been at the Target Center this season (3-15-1 ATS!), but if you'll recall my analysis from the other night, I did say that the inevitable progression to the mean will likely come when the team starts getting big points here at home. Well, they are tonight as LeBron James and Cleveland come calling and Minnesota should be fired up for this one as the game will be on ESPN. The T'Wolves were favored Wednesday vs. Denver and came up short (losing 78-74), but that was one of five home losses this year by six points or less. Surprisingly, they've actually been favored in half of their home games this season. The market has now shifted against them and it's time to take advantage by grabbing the points.

Clearly, on paper, this looks like a mismatch. The Cavs come in having won five straight and 11 of their last 13. Fully healthy now (Kyrie Irving back), they have established themselves as the team to beat in the East (what we all expected). But their defense, which had been much improved over the L3 weeks, has fallen off the past two games. Both Washington & Toronto were able to score 100+ against them and they allowed the Wizards to shoot better than 55% for the game Weds night including 14 of 24 from three-point range (the last one resulting in a "backdoor" cover). Cleveland has played a lot of close games so far this year as over half (17 of 33) have been decided by six points or less. With a couple of weak opponents on the horizon (T'wolves & Sixers), it would be only natural to see the Cavs "let up" a bit on what will be a six-game road trip.

Minnesota, meanwhile, cannot possibly be any worse offensively than they were in the fourth quarter Weds vs. Denver. There, they scored only 9 points (2 for 20 from the field!) in the 78-74 setback. The YTD trends may not like them here, but again, what's surprising is that they've actually been favored in four of their past five games. Another surprise is that there has been only a handful of games this year where the T'wolves have been getting big points like they are here. Eight of Cleveland's nine losses this year have come on the road where they are just 9-8 SU overall. 10* Minnesota

8* Loyola Marymount (10:00 ET): St. Mary's is an incredible 11-0 against the spread this season and while I might be guilty of "chasing," suffice to say we all know that the Gaels won't be covering every game this seaosn. They have opened WCC play w/ four dominant, double-digit wins, the latest coming Saturday at home as they rolled over San Diego by a score of 79-46.  But now they're being asked to hit the road for only the third time all season and I think a battle-tested Loyola Marymount team (only five home games) is going to give them all they can handle. The Gaels only loss this year did come on the road, at Cal, and that was one where if you took the opening number (as I did), you actually would have covered going against them. I like the home dog in this one. Take the points.

Loyola Marymount was done no favors by the WCC schedule-makers as they had to open conference play with three consecutive road games. They dropped all three, but did at least cover their last time out, losing by only three at Pepperdine as eight-point dogs. As mentioned earlier, the Lions haven't gotten many chances to play at home this season, but when they do they're undefeated at 5-0 SU. The teams that have come here are a real "rogue's gallery," but the good news is that LMU has averaged over 80.0 PPG in those victories. Now the Lions have come up empty the last few seasons against St. Mary's, but this team is "due" having come up just short in OT vs. Pepperdine on Saturday. I figure that they are certainly due to improve upon their woeful 37.6 percent shooting from their first three conference games.

St. Mary's was not expected to be this good this season. They rolled in their last game, 79-46 over San Diego, their third 20+ pt victory in four WCC games. But their insanely hot shooting this year (54.3%!) is due to regress. They've been even more ridiculous in conference play (56.7% from the field!) and even less "fair" is that their opponents have shot just 38.4% for the season. I realize that this is the hallmark of a good team, but that kind of discrepancy is also totally unsustainable. Consider that three of their last six opponents have been below 30 percent shooting!  I look for LMU to shoot well enough to stay inside the number in this one. 8* Loyola Marymount

10* Utah (8:05 ET): On paper, the Jazz would seem to be in some trouble here. This is the second game of a home and home w/ Houston, but in between they had to play a game in San Antonio (last night) where they predictably lost big, 123-98. The team has really struggled ever since losing Rudy Gobert to injury. Even worse is that Derrick Favors is now hurt (missed yday's game) as well. But as rough as things may look here, Houston has been a disaster at the betting window this year (league worst 13-23-3 ATS) including five straight non-covers. Utah covered Monday's game, losing by only two, and should have likely won outright as they held a 15-point lead in the second half. The oddsmakers are being quite generous here. Take the points.

Win or lose, Utah has typically been strong on the defensive end of the floor this season (97.6 PPG allowed). This was not the case last night, however, as the league-best Spurs torched them for 123 points on better than 60 percent shooting. That was a season-worst effort on the defensive end for the Jazz. Houston might be strong offensively, but Utah held them to only 93 points Monday and outside of James Harden (30 points) no other player contributed much of anything. Of course, we know that the Rockets are not sound defensively and them holding the Jazz to 91 points (on 40% shooting) was an atypical performance. For the season, Houston is allowing a ghastly 105.8 PPG and the four opponents before Utah all topped that average.

While the Jazz haven't found much success against the Rockets, particularly here in Houston, they are 10-3 ATS this season playing w/ revenge including 6-1 if said loss occurred at home.  As mentioned previously, Houston has been awful at the betting window this year after being the league's best ATS team last year. Laying this many points while being so bad defensively is not a sound combination.  As a home favorite, they are a lousy 4-11 against the spread and actually have a losing straight up record in those games (7-8). Incredibly, they have not covered a spread higher than -4 all year w/ the exception of two games against the lousy Lakers. 10* Utah

10* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): SMU is one of two unbeatens left in College Hoops (South Carolina), but despite that distinction, I'm actually pretty shocked they are favored in this spot here, despite being at home. ICYMI, the Mustangs lost a key contributor mid-week, Keith Frazier, who decided to quit the team. Frazier was part of the academic cheating scandal that landed the program on probation (ineligible for NCAA Tournament) and was one of five double digit scorers (11.9 PPG). Maybe that doesn't sound like a significant loss, but it is. This is a team whose regular rotation only runs eight deep. Tonight sees SMU taking on its toughest test to date, that being Cincinnati, who I give a great shot at pulling the outright upset. Take the points.

Cincy is 11-4 straight up and coming off dominant home win (76-57) over Tulsa that was much needed. Previously, the Bearcats had actually dropped B2B games, both at home. The first was to Iowa State, somewhat understandable, but a 77-70 defeat at the hands of 11.5-pt dog Temple was clearly their worst loss of the season. Their only other losses this year have come at the hands of Butler (at the buzzer) and Xavier (unbeaten at the time). Interestingly, three of those four losses came at home. They are 4-1 SU in road/neutral site games, holding teams to just 59 points per game. Note that they are one of just three visiting teams to win here at Moody Coliseum the L3 years, having beaten the Mustangs 62-54 (as 6.5-pt dogs) last season.

The Bearcats' defense will be the key to this game. Last year, they held SMU to just 36.5% shooting overall, including 3 for 14 from three-point range in the upset here in Dallas. They actually swept the Mustangs, also winning 56-50 at home and SMU wasn't much better from three-point range in that one, making just 3 of 11. Playing w/o Frazier for the first time, SMU struggled shooting the ball against South Florida on Saturday (season-low 41.1 percent), again particularly from three-point range (6 of 23). After HC Mick Cronin somewhat ripped his team for the B2B losses, the Bearcats responded by holding Tulsa to 33.3 percent shooting (4 of 21 from 3-pt range). I "smell" a potential upset here. 10* Cincinnati

8* California (9:00 ET): Normally, when a team is off a SU loss as a favorite (such as Oregon is here), I might look to play ON them. But this isn't the first time I've gone against Oregon, nor is it likely to be the last. The Ducks are coming off a 70-57 loss, as 2.5-pt chalk, to rival Oregon State over the weekend and return home to face a Cal team that is just plain better than they are right now. The Ducks are only being "propped up" by the fact that they have won 16 straight here in Eugene, but all good streaks must come to an end and in the case of this one, I wouldn't be surprised if "tonight's the night." Take the points w/ a Cal team whose only loss over its L9 games came by a single point (in overtime) at Virginia.

The visiting Bears are off an impressive win on Sunday as they beat ranked Utah, 71-58, in Berkeley. It was their fifth consecutive game covering the spread and they now have the best overall record among Pac 12 teams at 12-3 SU. Cuonzo Martin's team will absolutely be tested on this three-game road trip, but I see them as being up to the challenge. Remember that this team came into the season ranked 14th in the country. That was probably a case of putting "the cart before the horse," but w/ a veteran team back, plus the additions of two top 10 freshman in the country - Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb - this is going to be a dangerous team come March. The two freshman have gotten their respective offensive games going and I think Oregon is going to be in big trouble tonight.

Even w/ multiple players in foul trouble on Sunday, Cal was never really in danger of losing to Utah, whom they led by double digits for a good portion of the game. Defensively, this team has really turned a corner as they're allowing only 60.0 PPG their last seven contests and Utah scored only 22 first half points against them. Coming off a 57-point effort (on just 35.8% shooting) against Oregon State, I expect Oregon to have similar difficulties here.  Even though OSU's leading scorer Gary Payton, Jr didn't score in the 1st half Sunday, the Ducks found themselves trailing 34-19 going into the break (not a good sign!) and they couldn't come back despite the Beavers attempting only TWO three-pointers the entire 2H!  The better team is getting points in this one. 8* California

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  Well, I'm going back to well w/ Minnesota, at home, again and at this point it's definitely fair to say that I'm "chasing."  The T'wolves are an abysmal 3-14-1 against the spread on their own floor this year, most recently suffering a 10-point setback here to Milwaukee.  Even more embarrassing though was another outright loss, this one on the road, to Philadelphia Monday night. They became just the second team to lose by double digits to the now 4-33 Sixers and overall it was Minny's seventh loss in its last eight games. I know they've let us down before here at the Target Center, but tonight they get a chance to host a team that is in even worse shape than they are, that being Denver, losers of six straight (and 9 of 10). Lay the points.

These teams met not that long ago, here in Minneapolis, and the Nuggets came out on top 112-100 as 6.5-pt dogs. So you can see right away that there's a little bit of value in the shorter line this evening. Since that win, the bottom has dropped out for Denver (has a lot to due w/ injuries) as they've won just the one time in their L10 games. They've given up 110+ points in three straight games and while one of those was an OT loss at Golden State, they were also swept in a home and home by Portland. PG Emmnauel Mudiay is expected back here after missing the L12 games, but I don't think his presence will be enough to lift a Denver team that is allowing 104.2 points per game on the road this season.

Minnesota's awful home record is obviously due to regress back to the mean and while normally that might come about as a result of larger spreads in the underdog role, I anticipate perhaps their biggest margin of victory at home all season tonight. They too should be getting back a key contributor, Nikola Pekovic, who hasn't played at all this season following offseason surgeries. The T'wolves have lost to Denver twice this season, but I feel that the third time will be the charm as they are 7-4 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss, plus the Nuggets are only 4-10 ATS coming off a game where they scored 105 or more points. 8* Minnesota

10* New York (7:05 ET): The Knicks won last night, 107-101 in Atlanta, but by being in the second game of a back to back come in undervalued for tonight's nationally televised showdown in Miami. By sweeping a home and home w/ the Hawks, New York has already exceeded LY's win total, which is pretty impressive, although it also illustrates just how bad they were in 2014-15. While I don't think this is a playoff team yet, they have gone 9-4 against the spread dating back to December 10th and in what likely should be a fairly low-scoring affair tonight, getting all these points from the linesmakers is a nice luxury to have. Over the L3 seasons, the Knicks are just 1-8 SU/ATS vs. the Heat, including 0-4 SU/ATS here in Miami, but I'll call for them to at least cover here. Take the points. 

The Knicks played very well in the two games against Atlanta, averaging 109 points. Last night, on the road, they led by as many as 16 in the second half before things got tight late. But never surrendering that lead is definitely a positive sign. So is Aaron Afflalo having scored a combined 61 pts the L2 games as it's not only Carmelo Anthony and rookie Kristaps Porzingis carrying the scoring burden. The team did control the paint and outrebounded Atlanta as well. Getting points has served the Knicks well this season (14-9 ATS) and they haven't been too bothered by playing w/o rest, going 4-3 vs. the number in the second game of a B2B. 

Now things are likely to be tougher here against a Miami team that is surrendering only 94.6 PPG for the season. But the Heat are actually slightly WORSE defensively here at home and were fortunate to record a 103-100 overtime win against Indiana on Monday as Dwyane Wade made a driving layup to tie the game at the end of regulation. They trailed the Pacers by as many as 18 in that game and while it was their third straight win and cover, the team hasn't fared nearly as well when laying a bigger number. In fact, they are just 1-5 ATS as favorites of eight points or more w/ three outright losses. They are also 0-3 SU/ATS this season following three consecutive victories. This all makes sense as the Heat typically don't score a ton (97.4 PPG), so points are likely to be at a premium here. 10* New York

10* Seton Hall (7:00 ET):  Villanova, not surprisingly, has established itself as one of the premier teams in the country. I took them on New Year's Eve as they absolutely destroyed Xavier, 95-64, handing the Musketeers their first loss of the entire season. 'Nova followed that up w/ another easy win, 85-71 at Creighton (were 8 pt favorites) and their three-year ATS record now stands at a remarkable 55-24, including 29-8 here at home. Early in the year, I was playing against them (to mixed results), noting this phenomenal run against the pointspread had to start regressing sooner or later. Well, it hasn't yet, but tonight I'll call for the Wildcats to struggle a bit more than expected as they host another 12-2 team, Seton Hall. Take the points.

I also took Seton Hall in its Big East opener. Once again, I was rewarded as the Pirates went into Marquette and dominated, winning 83-63 as 3-pt dogs. Two days later, they hosted DePaul and while they did win for a seventh consecutive time, they failed to cover the 10-point spread (won 78-74). Perhaps they were looking forward to this game as they haven't beaten Villanova in Philly in their L14 tries. However, they have taken two of the last three meetings overall, including a five-point win at home last season (were +7). They are also 2-1 SU in "true" road games so far and their only two losses have both been by single digits. This looks to be a classic over-inflated number due to Villanova's recent form.

Five of the seven wins during Seton Hall's current win streak have come by double digits. They also hold victories over Ole Miss (neutral floor) and Wichita State. The last team they lost to was George Washington, who beat Virginia. As I wrote about in the Marquette analysis, the Pirates are led by Isaiah Whitehead, who is now up to 15.1 points and 4.6 assists per game. Angel Delgado continues to pace the Big East w/ an average of 10.3 rebounds per game as he and Khadeen Carrington are the reason why this team does so well in points in the paint, especially second chance opportunities. The Pirates get to the free throw line often as well (73.6% from the charity stripe), but most important here is the fact they allow only 63.9 PPG. I see this being a tight, relatively low-scoring game throughout, which means grabbing the points is the way to go here. 10* Seton Hall

10* Nebraska (9:00 ET): Coming off a tremendous week that saw them "upset" both Michigan State (were actually favored against the Spartans) and Purdue, it's probably a good idea to "sell high" right now on Iowa as they are laying a big number against a Nebraska team that will arrive in Iowa City likely to give the Hawkeyes its best shot.  The Cornhuskers also remember LY's matchup w/ the Hawkeyes as they got drubbed 74-46 in Lincoln as only a one-point home dog. They could not "hit water from a boat" in that one as they trailed 42-16 at half and for the game made only 32.7% of their shots, including 2 of 18 three-point attempts. Things haven't gone particularly well recently for Nebraska either, but I expect a close game nonetheless. Take the points.

The effort Iowa turned in exactly seven days ago vs. Michigan State may have been their finest to date under HC Fran McCaffery (I was on them!). But remember that MSU was w/o Denzel Valentine there and HC Tom Izzo was dealing with his father having passed away 24 hours earlier.  So, needless to say, I was an advantageous spot for the Hawkeyes there. Then, four days later they went to West Lafayette and upset Purdue, 70-63 as nine-point pups. But as impressive as that seems, be aware that they actually trailed the Boilermakers by as many as 19 points before scoring 50 in the second half. But it was the defense, which held the Boilermakers to just eight second half field goals that won them that game.  Tip your cap to that 2H performance, but it will be extremely hard to duplicate moving forward. 

This isn't a great spot for Iowa by any means. They have an eight-day break following this game, followed by the rematch w/ Michigan State. So there could be a bit of a "look ahead" factor in play tonight.  Also, while in retrospect, it seems pretty ridiculous that the Hawkeyes weren't ranked, now they seem a little overvalued. Remember that this has been quite the inconsistent bunch under McCaffery.  While they made the huge rally against Purdue, they also blew a big lead and lost at Iowa State. Nebraska is not on that level, but since losing at Villanova on November 17th, they've lost only two times by more than 10 points. 10* Nebraska

10* Over Kings/Mavericks (8:35 ET):  I caught a bit of a bad break last night as Kevin Durant's injured toe kept him out of his team's game vs. Sacramento and thus laying points ended up being a bad idea as the Kings upset the Thunder 116-104, continuing their recent resurgence (8-5 SU L13 games). However, beware that this team is 0-6 ATS this season when coming off a SU win as a dog as well as 9-26 ATS their L35 times in this spot. But rather than get caught laying points again (there is no denying that George Karl has his team playing better), I'm instead turning to the total. Even not having to face Durant, I was stunned to see Sacramento hold OKC to only 104 pts last night as for the season they are giving up over 110 PPG on the road.  We know Dallas can score.  Take the Over.

We know the Mavs can score, but they have struggled offensively the L2 games, first scoring only 82 @ Miami and then 96 vs. New Orleans, both losses. But a date with the Kings might be just what the doctor ordered. I say this despite the fact they scored only 98 points against the Kings in a loss earlier this year. But that game took place in Sacramento and as we know the Kings are typically much worse defensively when they take their act out on the road where they are now just 5-11 straight up.  Dallas had previously topped 100 pts every time during a four-game win streak, including a huge win over the Warriors w/o Steph Curry. They are 12-4 Over when favored this season (interesting b/c the Under is 12-4 in all home games) and a perfect 3-0 Over when they are off a SU loss as a favorite.

It was of course only two games ago that Sacramento dropped 142 points on lowly Phoenix, shooting better than 60 percent for the game.  So they'll likely "get theirs" as well tonight.  On the defensive end, Dallas is allowing 101.1 PPG and while they're significantly better at home, they did allow the Pelicans to score 105 here on Saturday and the day after X-Mas, Chicago (not an efficient offensive team) came to town and scored 111 in a high-scoring affair (Mavs won). On the other end of the floor, after making only 17 of 56 three-point attempts the L2 games, I expect the Mavs to be better tonight. 10* Over Kings/Mavericks

8* Auburn (7:00 ET): With Oklahoma losing last night (what a game!), there are only two unbeaten teams left in all of College Basketball. Interestingly, I don't think that anyone would consider either to be among the nation's true elite. One, SMU, is actually ineligible for the postseason due to sanctions. The other is South Carolina, who I'll be playing against here. The Gamecocks are 13-0 SU (8-1-1 ATS) and coming off an 86-76 win over Memphis this past weekend. HC Frank Martin has done a tremendous job in building up this program, but as they get set to open SEC play tonight, I feel they are ripe to be upset. This is just their second "true" road game of the year and the first outside of the state of South Carolina. Take the points.

Tonight's opponent, Auburn, has already begun conference play w/ an 83-77 win here at home over Tennessee. The Tigers have their own high-profile coach, Bruce Pearl, and  on Saturday they beat his former school thanks to some red-hot second half shooting (59 percent!). The team had previously dropped three of four, including two straight, before that win. They can absolutely score here at home (88.5 PPG!) and have won the L3 regular season meetings vs. South Carolina.  That includes a 71-68 win (+2.5) last season despite shooting only 36.5% from the field. While Pearl is dealing w/ some injuries this season, Marshall transfer Kareem Canty has picked up the slack, leading the team in scoring w/ 19.3 PPG.

South Carolina had a lot of help from the opposition on Saturday as Memphis sent them to the free throw line an astounding 63 times, a school record. That was what aided them the most in pulling away late as the game was actually tied w/ nine minutes to go. Not to accuse the referees of anything, but it would seem highly unlikely that the Gamecocks will benefit from such an abundance of FT attempts here.  A total of five Memphis players fouled out. South Carolina is being asked to lay more points here than they were at Clemson when they ended up prevailing by only six points. They were 3-0 at the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Islands, but beating DePaul, Hofstra and Tulsa isn't that impressive. This will be their toughest test to date. 8* Auburn

8* Charlotte (10:35 ET): I haven't been afraid to "step out" against Golden State recently, first doing so X-Mas Day when they hosted Cleveland and then again at Dallas (w/o Steph Currey) when they were crushed 114-91.  Curry may not play again tonight and I'll take the chance that he won't (though this play IS still valid even if he does) as the Warriors host the MVP's hometown team, Charlotte. Truth be told, if my new power rankings came out today, the defending champs would no longer be #1 (San Antonio would). I now rate the Spurs as being a full-point better on a neutral floor. Regression was somewhat inevitable for the Warriors after that ridiculous start and after watching them struggle to get by lowly Denver the other night (needed OT), I'm going to grab the points here.

Charlotte is a team in desperate need of a win, or at least a strong performance. Banged up, the team has lost three in a row and six of its last eight to fall out of the top eight in the Eastern Conference. They've been a little fortunate in the sense that they've played 20 of their 33 games so far at home. But the home court edge certainly didn't help them on Saturday when they were held to only 90 points (on 34.5% shooting) in a 19-point loss to Oklahoma City. Still, the Hornets are 5-1 ATS this season when coming off a double-digit loss and stand to shoot better here than they did the other night. With Curry mostly on the sidelines, the Warriors have struggled a bit defensively, giving up 114, 110 and 108 points their last three games.

After missing two games, the loss to Dallas and a win over Houston, Curry returned to the lineup Saturday vs. Denver, but reinjured his calf after just 14 minutes of play and thus is listed as questionable for tonight.  I know that this being his hometown team, he'll want to play (his dad, Dell, will be in the building as he is a Hornets color commentator). But I wouldn't risk it, especially w/ a three-game road trip beginning tomorrow night. Again, even if Curry does play, go against the Warriors here as the line will certainly be bet up (so you may want to wait a little before placing your actual bet here). The Hornets have revenge here for a 17-point home loss last month.  8* Charlotte

8* Oklahoma (9:00 ET):  This could actually end up being a battle of #1 vs. #1 as Oklahoma is #2 in the Coaches Poll and Kansas #2 in the AP. With Michigan State losing last week, it stands to reason that both would ascend to the top spot in respective polls when they come out later today.  Regardless, this is an outstanding matchup. While Kansas is currently perceived to be the top team in the country, Oklahoma is still unbeaten and all things considered, I believe this line to be too high. Yes, the game takes place in Lawrence where OU has not won in over a decade. Also, as you know, I've been playing AGAINST those few remaining unbeatens over the last month w/ great success (like the aforementioned Mich State against Iowa LW). But the bottom line is this game rates as a toss-up to me, so taking the points is the way to go.

Recent results, on the both sides, have helped to drive this number up.  Oklahoma is off a close call on Saturday where they beat Iowa State 87-83 as a 6.5-point choice themselves. But I think playing a tough opponent like that will actually serve them well here. The Sooners did trail for much of the second half, but then won the game despite ISU shooting the ball at a ridiculous 56.2% clip over the final 20 minutes.  That's pretty impressive. Yet the market has turned on them, likely due to three consecutive ATS defeats, including another close call at Hawaii right before X-Mas.  But considering the Sooners' experience and the fact they are averaging 87.0 points per game getting points seems like a nice luxury to have.

Kansas, meanwhile, destroyed Baylor 102-74 on Saturday for their fifth consecutive ATS win. So, their stock is really high in the public's eyes right now. However, since losing to Michigan State on November 17th (by six), the Jayhawks haven't really been tested. They are 8-2 ATS when favored this season and averaging slightly more points per game than OU. But I can't help but think this is an overlay.  The Jayhawks' last four opponents have all shot 39.0 percent or worse from the field, which I don't envision the Sooners doing here. OU will have the best player on the floor Monday night (Buddy Hield) and remember they destroyed Villanova on a neutral court earlier this year. 8* Oklahoma

8* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): I like this matchup a lot for the Thunder. Sure, it's a big number and they're up against a team that just scored 142 points in its last game. But after witnessing what happened to Phoenix last night, any result involving them should certainly be taken w/ a "grain of salt" at this point. Thus, expect a sharp decline from Sacramento on the offensive end here after shooting a preposterous 60.9 percent from the field Saturday against the Suns. This is also a road game for the Kings and that means trouble as they are an awful 4-11 SU away from home while giving up a whopping 110.6 points per game. Defense figures to be an issue for them in this one as OKC is second in the league in terms of offensive efficiency. Lay the points.

Over its L5 games, the Thunder are averaging 113.1 PPG and here they should have no trouble scoring against a Sacramento side that has allowed 110+ in three consecutive contests.  Only Golden State tops OKC's average of 1.10 points per possession.  This is a big number and I understand that the Thunder have failed to deliver each of the last four times they've been double digit chalk. But they did just come through w/ an impressive road win over a pretty good Charlotte team on Saturday.  There, they proved they could play some defense as well, limiting the Hornets to only 90 points on 34.5 percent shooting, including 6 of 22 from three-point range.  They are 16-4 SU at home this season and Sacramento hasn't won here in their last 14 tries. 

Now these two teams did play a close game earlier this season here in OKC w/ the Thunder escaping w/ a 98-95 win as 11.5-pt chalk. But, as you can probably ascertain, the Thunder shot the ball unusually poorly in that one at just 40.7 percent overall including 6 for 22 from three-point range.  The Kings are unlikely to "get away" with that again, given what we are accustomed to seeing from them defensively. Note that during the 14-game losing streak here, the average margin of defeat has been by 12.3 points per game and last time they did trail by as many as 17 before rallying to make it close. The Thunder, unlike the Kings, can play some defense and they will help here in what should be a blowout victory. 8* Oklahoma City

10* TCU (7:00 ET):  TCU obviously treated me very well over the weekend w/ the football team providing a thrilling, *10* Game of the Year winner over Oregon in the Alamo Bowl. Now, let's see what the basketball program can do. The Horned Frogs are catching West Virginia playing a third consecutive road game (in less than a week) and I feel the 19th ranked (will move up when new rankings come out later today) Mountaineers are ripe to be upset in this spot. They were lucky to escape Manhattan with a win Saturday, needing double overtime to beat Kansas State, 87-83.  WVU still only has the one loss (neutral court vs. Virginia), but as I've written about previously I'm concerned over their field goal defense as their opponents' shooting percentages are unsustainable. Take the points.

TCU is off a pretty ugly loss to Oklahoma State (on the road) by 21 points. For the second straight road game, the Horned Frogs shot the ball terribly. They finished the game vs. OSU at only 30 percent overall, including a horrible 1 for 17 from three-point range. That sounds a lot like previous West Virginia opponents as the Mounties still sport the top 3-pt FG% defense in the country (23.7%!) and overall teams are shooting just 41.5% against them. This sounds like a "perfect storm" for the favorite, but I go back to the concept of "unsustainability."  TCU is highly unlikely to shoot the ball as poorly here (back at home) while moving forward I'm sure we're going to see teams make more shots against WVU, particularly from three-point range.

Note that TCU actually only trailed by two at halftime against Oklahoma State. Their starting five combined to score only 20 points, so again, improvement is "in the cards" tonight. The Horned Frogs play much better defense at home (63.9 PPG allowed) and were able to stay within five points of (still) unbeaten SMU here in Ft. Worth.  Meanwhile, WVU didn't do its usual good job on the boards or forcing turnovers Saturday at Kansas State, a game they trailed much of the way. Their own three-point shooting has been pretty atrocious (22.1% outside of Morgantown) and this will probably end up as a fairly low-scoring affair where points are at a premium. That makes taking the 'dog the way to go. 10* TCU

10* Phoenix (9:35 ET):  The Suns have become somewhat of an embarrassment, losing eight straight, including 142-119 yday in Sacramento. HC Jeff Hornacek's job appears to be in major jeopardy right now at a time the team isn't necessarily healthy (PG Eric Bledsoe out for season). But most embarrassing of all is the fact they check in as a virtual "Pick em" against the lousy Lakers Sunday night. Going by my own power ratings, there's only one team in the league that the Lakers should be favored against and that's the one they played their last time out, Philadelphia.  I feel that the line for this game is a massive overreaction to recent events and that the embattled Suns are actually a solid value in this spot.  Take them. 

After beating the Sixers 93-84 Friday night, the Lakers have now won consecutive games for the first time all season (beat Boston as 14-pt dogs on NYE). What are the chances they make it three in a row? Not good, in my opinion. Kobe Bryant is listed as questionable (shoulder) here after missing the Sixers game. Without Kobe, the Lakers turned in arguably their finest effort on the defensive end of the floor all season against Philly, holding them to just 36.9 percent shooting. But take that number w/ a grain of salt as we know that the Sixers are dead last in the league in terms of offensive efficiency. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS L3 seasons after allowing 85 pts or less.   Phoenix, for all their issues, can still score as they average a solid 102.1 PPG. They whipped LA, 120-101, in the season's first meeting, improving them to 8-1 SU (6-2-1 ATS) their last nine games vs. the Lakers.

Now, it is obvious that the Suns need to start showing some pride on the defensive end of the floor. Yesterday was a disaster in every sense of the word as they allowed the most points in a non-overtime game since 1990. Sacramento shot better than 60 percent (!) for the game. But Tyson Chandler (best defensive player) getting ejected in the third quarter had something to do w/ that as the Kings would go on to score an astounding 83 points in the second half. After suffering such an embarrassing loss, I believe that Phoenix will show a little bit of pride here and they are undervalued being that they are in the second night of a B2B (played early yday though).  10* Phoenix

8* Louisville (8:00 ET):  There's a couple of reasons why this number has been bet down ever so slightly. One is that Louisville's Trey Lewis (transfer from Cleveland State) is expected to miss tonight's game. Lewis, the team's second leading scorer, will be missed but it is not as if his absence cannot be overcome.  The other factor that has some leaning towards the dog here is that Wake Forest is coming off an outright upset of Ben Simmons and LSU, 77-71 as seven-point dogs. They also played Xavier (at the time still unbeaten) very tough the game before that. But despite all that, I'm still expecting the Cardinals and their embattled head coach Rick Pitino to pull out a double-digit win in this spot. Lay the points.

We haven't seen Louisville since the day after Christmas when they played rival Kentucky. That final score of 75-73 really burned me as I was on UK laying 2.5 points.  The Cardinals trailed by as many as 16 points in the second half before making a furious rally. While I was critical of Louisville's early season schedule in my analysis of that game, the fact is their only two losses this season have come against Michigan State and Kentucky and were by a combined six points. They have had a ton of time to get over the loss to Kentucky here (full week off!). This team ranks #1 in the country in scoring differential (+27.7 points per game) thanks to a defense that is allowing just 57.4 PPG (2nd best in the country). They are also #1 in rebounding differential (+14.5 per game) and have already shot better than 50 percent in nine different games, which is one more time than they did all of last season.

Wake Forest, while much improved last year, is simply not in the same class as the teams that beat Louisville.  Danny Manning's Demon Deacons have also been a little fortunate in that they are 7-0 SU in games decided by six points or less. Last year saw them lose by 11 (as 12.5-pt dogs) at home to Louisville. Even factoring in Wake's improvement, this line should be several points higher given the change in venue. The Deacons are allowing a pretty woeful 78.1 PPG and haven't given up fewer than 70 in any game all season. I look for them to struggle offensively here and that will allow the home favorite to pull away late. 8* Louisville

8* San Diego (10:00 ET):  Needless to say, St. Mary's has been a major surprise so far this year. Not just because the Gaels are a perfect 10-0 against the spread (NCAA best), but that they've been winning so comfortably despite losing LY's best player, Brad Waldow, who was thought to be somewhat irreplaceable. Still though, I am expecting this run of theirs to "flatline" a little bit and after picking up a big home win over BYU on New Year's Eve (got me), I see SMC struggling to cover what is a huge number against San Diego. The underdog Toreros are off loss (by two at Pacific), which dropped them to 5-7 SU on the season, but typically play the Gaels tough and I expect this to be another hard-fought WCC matchup.  Take the points.

The Gaels are the only team in the country to have played more than four lined games and not suffer a single ATS defeat. The only teams close to them in the overall ATS standings are IUPUI-Ft Wayne (9-1) and Purdue (8-2).  History and common sense are both against St. Mary's now as there is simply no way they will continue to cover every game. The spreads will only continue to increase and in fact what we have here is the largest opening spread for any SMC game all season.  New Year's Eve against BYU saw the Gaels catch a break, at least early, as the Cougars opened the game a woeful 2 for 14 from the field. At halftime, they were at only 28 percent. Yet, it took St. Mary's own 56.4% shooting and a late run to cover the spread.

The Gaels have also been fortunate that most of their recent opponents have shot the ball exceedingly bad.  Even before BYU, three of the last four teams they faced were below 29 percent for the game! At the same time, they themselves have been at 56 percent or better in four of the last six games.  This insane discrepancy has to stop! Of course, San Diego only shot 34.4% from the field in its last game, while allowing Pacific to shoot 54.9 percent, but again they lost by only two (scored 50 pts in the second half!). Overall, the Toreros have covered the spread in four of their last five games, including an outright upset of San Diego State as 16.5-pt dogs on December 6th. Their head coach, Lamont Smith, is a former assistant here at SMC, so you know that this game will mean a lot to him and thus his players as well. 8* San Diego

10* LSU (9:00 ET):  One of College Basketball's biggest disappointments thus far has to reside in Baton Rouge where despite having the most "pro-ready" talent in the country, LSU is only 3-7 against the spread and an even more perplexing 7-5 straight up. Ben Simmons' (aka the "next LeBron") talents are being wasted right now as the team is off an outright loss at home (as 7-pt favorites) to Wake Forest earlier in the week and right now it is far from guaranteed that the Tigers would even make the NCAA Tournament. What a shame that would be. However, what "catches my eye" here is that tonight marks the first real time the Bayou Bengals are clearly the underdogs going into a game this season. I think that that also means for the first time, they are a good value. I'm taking the points in this SEC opener.

Vanderbilt had dropped four of six games prior to an easy win over Western Michigan here at home on Tuesday.  Those losses were all against good teams, including Kansas and Purdue, and for the most part were close. But still, I don't think the Commies deserve to be laying this many points.  They did lose outright as nine-point home favorites to Dayton last month and while they're 6-0 SU/ATS otherwise in the chalk role, many of the other teams that have come calling to Nashville were clearly overmatched. LSU won't be and in fact the Tigers have beaten Vandy three straight times, the last two coming here at Memorial Gym.  Those wins were both close and now w/ Simmons in the fold, another close game is what I expect in this spot. 

Simmons took only eight shots in the loss to Wake Forest, which is ridiculous. He still scored 21 points mind you and is averaging 19.3 points as well as 13 rebounds per game. I'd actually like to see him start to become a little more "selfish" moving forward while still maintaining his current average of 5.5 assists per game. Leading his team in virtually every offensive category, it's obvious who will be the best player on the court Saturday night.  The key here will be LSU getting their defense (allowing 76.2 PPG) on track. But at the same time, Vandy has enjoyed far too good of fortune when it comes to three-point shooting this year as they are making 40.2 percent of their attempts while opponents are at only 27.1 percent. That large discrepancy is due to start regressing to the mean. 10* LSU

8* Over Pelicans/Mavericks (8:35 ET):  Obviously, I've had a pretty good "pulse" on this Dallas team of late. I jumped all over them when they got to host Golden State (who was w/o Steph Curry) and the end result there was a very impressive 114-91 win and cover. But last night saw them make the trip down to South Beach and I was all over the Heat, who prevailed 106-82 as a short-favorite. I anticipate everyone will be calling for the Mavs to bounce back tonight as they host lowly New Orleans, but I believe the better play is on the total. Surprisingly, these have been two Under teams, at least when the Pelicans are on the road and the Mavs at home. But considering the way the last matchup went (120-105 final score...in favor of New Orleans!), the elements are present here for another Over to cash. 

The Pelicans' 15-3 Under record really surprises me. By any metric, this has been one of the worst defensive teams in the league all season. They give up 106.6 points per game (tied for 29th) and are also 29th in efficiency (only Lakers are worse). They'll likely struggle here to slow down a Dallas offense that averages 102.1 PPG at home and is due to improve from last night's dismal showing in Miami where they shot just 36.4 percent. In two previous meetings this season, the Mavs have averaged 106 PPG against the Pelicans. Of particular interest to me is that tonight's total is several points lower than what it was for those first two matchups, despite the last one seeing 235 combined points.

New Orleans has been held under 90 points in three of its last four games.  That might sound bad when you consider Dallas is allowing only 91.7 PPG here at home where the Under is 11-4, but the Pelicans did put up 120 points the last time these two met. That's actually been "par for the course" for them as they average 106.2 PPG in division games (give up 105.2). Somehow they lost to the Clippers their last time out (I did go against them!) despite allowing just 38.9 percent shooting. They probably aren't going to be that fortunate again here. At the same time, Dallas allowed 56.1 percent shooting to Miami last night, so I see some all around improvement offensively in this one. 8* Over Pelicans/Mavericks

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET):  The T'wolves have been just horrible at home this season, winning only 5 of 17 games and the results at the betting window have been even worse w/ a 3-13-1 ATS mark. But they did win their last time here, 94-80 over a pretty decent Utah squad (as four-point chalk) and curiously the asking price isn't nearly as high tonight as they welcome in a Milwaukee team that's been bad all season away from home (4-15 SU), even though they did win at Indiana (as six-point pups) New Year's Eve. Now Minnesota did lose on NYE (115-90 at Detroit), but that doesn't justify this line IMO as the T'wolves look like an excellent value going up against a team that allows 106.3 points per game away from home. Lay the number.

The Bucks couldn't miss two nights ago in Indiana, finishing the game w/ a 58.4% overall shooting percentage. The last time they shot that well actually wasn't that long ago as on December 23rd, they shot 60%, albeit against Philadelphia. But of note here is the fact the following game saw Milwaukee shoot only 42 percent in a blowout (111-90) loss to Toronto. The team would go on to lose its next two games as well, both on the road, before beating the Pacers. That win over Indiana was rare not just because it was on the road, but because it was the first time in nine games this season that they won despite allowing a shooting percentage of 50% or better. They caught the Pacers off an overtime loss the night prior and 20 turnovers turned into 35 Bucks' points. All five Milwaukee starters scored in double figures and totaled 95 points. I would not expect a repeat performance here.

Despite winning their last game, the Bucks are still one of the worst teams in the league. Only three teams (Brooklyn, Lakers, Philadelphia) have a worse scoring differential and the team ranks 28th in terms of defensive efficiency. They still allowed 116 points to the Pacers and that was just their third win in 20 games this season when allowing 100+ points. Minnesota does average triple digits (100.1 PPG) even though they have failed to top 100 in six consecutive games. With double revenge from LY and a disappointing home record thus far, it's "just due" time tonight for the T'wolves, who should be favored by more here. 8* Minnesota

10* Orlando (7:35 ET):  I often state that teams playing in the second of back to back games are undervalued, especially when playing on the road. Such is the case here w/ Orlando, who is coming off a disappointing 103-91 loss yday in Washington. But the Magic remain the most profitable team to bet on in the Eastern Conference (at 65.6%, 21-11-1 ATS for the year) and are a good value tonight getting this many points against a Cleveland team still trying to integrate Kyrie Irving back into the lineup. The Cavs have not been a good team to bet on this year as they are only 12-17-1 at the betting window. When these teams first met this season, Orlando was in a bad spot as they had just returned home after a five-game West Coast swing. Now, the proverbial shoe is "on the other foot."  Take the points.

I haven't played on or against Cleveland since X-Mas Day when they opened a tough four-game in five-day stretch w/ a 89-83 loss (+7) at Golden State. Had they not shot the ball so poorly (31.6% overall!), they could have won the NBA Finals rematch. After getting routed in a bad spot (the next night) in Portland, the Cavs concluded their road trip w/ B2B wins over Denver and Phoenix, but neither win was particular impressive (both by 6 pts or less) as those are two bad teams. Defense is bailing out LeBron and company right now as they are actually one of the bottom two teams in the league in points scored per game since December 13th! That's played a significant role in the team going just 9-16 ATS when favored this season, including 1-4 at home when laying between 6.5 and 9 points. Returning home after a long trip, particularly one that coincided w/ the holidays, is always a tough spot and I expect Cleveland to struggle here.

Incredibly, the Cavs are 9-0 SU and ATS the L9 meetings with Orlando (2-0 this year). In both meetings this season, Cleveland has shot the ball remarkably well. In fact the last time saw them shoot a season-best 56.9 percent from the floor in a 111-76 rout. The Magic's two worst defensive performances of the season (in terms of field goal percentage allowed) have come against the Cavs, but despite that and that they failed to snap a long losing streak (10 games) to another foe last night (Washington), I expect them to break through w/ at least a cover tonight. It was a tie game w/ the Wizards last night entering the 4th quarter, so the fact they ended up losing by 12 points is a tad bit misleading. The Magic are 4-1 ATS playing in the second of B2B games and only once this season have they gone three or more consecutive games w/o covering (off B2B ATS losses here). 10* Orlando

8* Stanford (9:00 ET): We're into conference play now in College Hoops and in the Pac 12 we have just two teams ranked in both Top 25 polls. One is obviously conference favorite Arizona, who is in the top 10, and the other is Utah. But despite having a win over Duke (on a neutral floor), I'm not entirely sold on the Runnin' Utes ranking in the polls (21st AP, 22nd Coaches). That win over the Blue Devils was the first game Coach K's team played w/o Amile Jefferson and the game still went to overtime despite Duke shooting only 29.9 percent from the field. The Utes have been blown out twice this year, first by Miami and then by Wichita State and tonight marks their first "true" road game of the season. Take the points.

Stanford is only 7-4 SU coming into tonight, but the teams they've lost to are all very good. An early season three-game losing streak came at the hands of SMU, St. Mary's and Villanova. They also lost by only two to Texas here in Palo Alto on December 19th. Since that time, they've bounced back w/ B2B lopsided wins against overmatched foes.  While perhaps not even considered a "second-tier" Pac 12 team entering conference play, I anticipate the Cardinal giving the Utes plenty of problems in tonight's matchup. They average 78.1 PPG at home and are led by sophomore Dorian Pickens, who is averaging 19.5 PPG the L4 games thanks to a 15 of 28 mark from behind the arc. This is also a double revenge spot for Stanford, who didn't get to host Utah LY, losing to them on the road and at a neutral setting (Pac 12 Tournament) by a combined 40 points. 

Recent history shows that Utah typically struggles on the road. They did go 5-4 SU away from home last season in conference play, which is by far their best effort in four seasons as the previous three saw them go a combined 3-24! Again, this is the team's first "true" road game of the year, though they did play Wichita State in the Shockers' own holiday tournament and the result there was a 17-point loss. The Utes also struggled their last time out, despite facing a NAIA opponent (College of Idaho), as they actually trailed 16-2 right out of the gate. They have NEVER won here in Palo Alto since joining the conference.  8* Stanford

10* Miami (7:30 ET): The Heat ended 2015 on a bit of a downer as they lost B2B games, outright, to Brooklyn and Memphis.  The latter came in overtime and saw the team still only score 90 points for the game, despite a 30-point 1st quarter! It was also just their second loss to a Western Conference foe this season (9-2 SU) as I'll once again mention the shift in the balance of power that's going on between the NBA's two conferences, at least in terms of depth. Back at home on New Year's Day, I look for Miami to bounce back and I like them laying only a short number against a Dallas club that's probably feeling pretty good about itself after routing Golden State (no Steph Curry) two nights ago. I'm on the favorite here.

The Mavs arrive in South Beach having won four straight, but the last three have all come at home. I was on them Wednesday as they took advantage of the Curry-less Warriors, winning 114-91.  It all went right for Dallas there and needless to say I think that Golden State was a little "shell-shocked" over not having the MVP.  The Mavs are one of just five Western Conference teams to have a positive point differential this season, but on the road they struggle, giving up 103.9 points per game. Their last three road games have resulted in two losses to Eastern Conference teams comparable to Miami, those being Indiana & Toronto, plus only a one-point win (OT) over lowly Brooklyn.  This shapes us as a proverbial letdown spot.

One clear advantage that Miami has coming into this matchup is on the defensive end of the floor. They allow only 95.5 PPG, which is the third best average in the league, trailing only San Antonio and Cleveland.  Therefore, I expect an across the board decline for the Mavericks here from their last game when they shot better than 51% overall, including 14 for 27 from three-point range.  Dallas has been scoring well above their season average the L4 games, so they are due for a little "market correction" regardless.  Lost during this win streak of theirs is the fact PG Deron Williams remains out.  JJ Barea cannot possibly continue shooting the ball as well as he has (63% from 3-pt range) these L4 games. The Heat have lost three straight games only one time all season. 10* Miami

8* BYU (11:00 ET): St. Mary's (9-0 ATS) remains unbeaten at the betting window, though in their lone SU loss of the season (at Cal), the final score did end up falling close to the number. Regardless, I'm targeting the Gaels for an ATS setback, and potential outright loss, as they host BYU here. This is the conference opener for underdog BYU, who has not played since a Holiday Tournament in Hawaii that concluded on X-Mas Day. After opening w/ a tough, three-point loss to Harvard out on the Island, the Cougars responded w/ strong B2B wins and covers over New Mexico and Northern Iowa. While 0-3 SU in "true" road games to this point, none of BYU's losses this season have been blowouts and I see them as being poised for an upset here. Take the points. 

St. Mary's has already played two WCC games and blew out both San Francisco and Santa Clara.  However, an out of conference matchup w/ Utah Valley State (non-board team) I don't think did them any favors coming into tonight's showdown.  That game took place just three days ago and the Gaels won by only 15, so had it been lined, the result would have been an ATS loss. The team shot only 42.4 percent from the field, which actually matched a season-low (tying their percentage from the loss to Cal), but they were bailed out yet again by another opponent shooting horrifically as in this case Utah Valley State was just 27.4 percent from the floor. That was actually the third time in the last four games that SMC's opponent was below 29 percent shooting overall!  BYU comes in shooting 47.7% for the season (50%+ each of the L4 games), so I'd say the Gaels are in for a rude awakening tonight. 

BYU's shooting isn't likely to go down as long as the ball finds its way into the hands of Chase Fischer, who scored 41 points in the win over New Mexico and then 26 more the following night vs. Northern Iowa.  While St. Mary's does appear to have a pretty significant edge defensively tonight, you do have to adjust for the quality of opposition each team has faced.  The Gaels ridiculous 53.8% shooting is unlikely to continue moving forward and note that there have been only two games all season where BYU failed to scored 75 points. That makes the Cougars a great underdog play IMO and note they beat Utah Valley State by significantly more (31 points) in their season opener. 8* BYU

10* LA Clippers (8:05 ET): The Clippers look to complete a perfect 5-0 road trip tonight w/ a visit to the Big Easy and given that they were able to dispatch of a good Hornets team last night, I don't see them struggling against a significantly worse Pelicans squad. Again, we can take advantage of some pretty significant line value here due to a team playing in the second game of a back to back. It's pretty ridiculous that we are able to even get points in this matchup considering how awful New Orleans has been this season. They are arguably the worst defensive team in the league to this point (inexcusable w/ Anthony Davis on the roster) and are being outscored by roughly five points per game. Take the points.

The Clippers did not cover the first game on this road trip, but that was due to laying a big number (on X-Mas night) against the Lakers (still won by 10). Since then, it's been three straight wins and covers. Last night, and this is w/o Blake Griffin mind you, they were able to put up 122 points against a Charlotte team that is no slouch defensively. LA never trailed and got 26 points from Austin Rivers of all people. They shouldn't expect that kind of contribution here, but nevertheless scoring shouldn't be a concern against a Pelicans side that is giving up an average of 109 points per game here at home. Earlier this season, the Clips torched the Pelicans for 111 pts in a 21-point victory at home. It probably won't be that easy this time around, but then again it doesn't need to be.

New Orleans would seem to have an advantage considering they haven't played in two days, but when you take their season into account, it becomes rather obvious that it would be foolish to lay points in this spot.  They lost 104-89 in Orlando their last time out and are just 2-7 ATS following a double digit loss. The Pelicans have been more respectable at home (7-6 SU), at least on the offensive end, but w/ Davis getting so little help this season, it's difficult to like this team.  Especially considering a 4-10 SU record vs. winning teams. 10* LA Clippers

8* Indiana (6:05 ET): When it comes to home vs. road, these teams have experienced very different results in this price range and it certainly applies here. Milwaukee has gone just 1-5 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points while Indiana is 6-1 ATS at home in the same range. The Bucks are in fact just 3-15 SU overall on the road, so this line definitely looks low to me even though the Pacers are coming off a tough overtime loss last night, 102-100 to Chicago.  But they did cover in the Windy City, improving their ATS record to 6-1 vs. division opponents. That includes a 123-86 whitewashing of Milwaukee last month here in the Hoosier State. Defensively, the Pacers are better at home and the Bucks worse on the road. Lay the points.

December hasn't gone nearly as well as November did for Indiana, but then again the team went 11-2 SU/ATS last month and that record was going to be very hard to duplicate. They have covered the spread each of their last three times out, including a 93-87 win over what has been a pretty hot Atlanta team here at home. Last night, the team did not shoot well (38.1 FG%) and fell into a 10-pt halftime hole. Yet, they were still able to rally and force OT, only losing due to a last-second Jimmy Butler tip-in. I often make the case that teams playing in the second game of a back to back are undervalued due to the perceived disadvantage and that is the case here. 

Milwaukee is really bad on the road and really bad defensively.  That makes tonight a tough spot for them. This is a team that is allowing 105.8 PPG on the road and is dead last (among Eastern Conference teams) in terms of efficiency on that end of the floor. If that's not bad enough, the Bucks are awful at guarding the three-point line w/ opponents hitting better than 40 percent against them from distance. In the previous meeting between these two, the Pacers made 15 three-pointers and that's no surprise as they are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league this year. Overall, their shooting numbers have been down in recent games (Paul George in particular), so a visit from the Bucks seems to be just what "the doctor ordered."  8* Indiana

8* Villanova (12:00 ET):  While College Football obviously is in the headlines New Year's Eve, this is an outstanding matchup on the hardcourt with the (perceived) two top teams from the Big East matched up. Both Xavier (currently) and Villanova have also been ranked in the top ten nationally. I know that early in the season I was playing against Jay Wright's Wildcats with some regularity (as their 53-24 three-year ATS record is certainly due to regress). But after Nova dropped a couple of games, I'm off that bandwagon and instead focused on the fact this is a team that's due to start shooting better from three-point range. At home, in a big game, I look for the Wildcats to come alive from three-point range this afternoon. Lay the points.

Xavier is on fire right now as they are one of just four remaining unbeaten teams in the country. They have covered eight straight games, most recently beating Wake Forest on the road, 78-70 as seven-point chalk. However, that score is a little bit misleading. Note that the Musketeers actually trailed by as many as 18 points in the first half in that one (by 15 at the half) before ridiculously hot-shooting in the second half (59 percent!) propelled them to victory. While some in the Xavier camp might write that off as a "wake up call," I feel it's more "warning sign."  Plus, Villanova is an opponent they have historically struggled against. Xavier is 0-5 SU/ATS the L2 seasons vs. them, losing all three meetings last year by double digits.  

You might question me raising an eyebrow over Villanova's shooting as they are actually hitting 60% percent on two-point field goal attempts, which would seem to indicate regression, not improvement, is forthcoming.  But at the same time, the Wildcats are connecting on only 31% from three-point range and infamously went 4 for 32 in their first loss of the season (vs. Oklahoma). The good news though is that their opponents are shooting below 30 percent from three-point range against them here at home, where they are 7-0 straight up.  Over the last three seasons, 'Nova is a sterling 28-8 ATS on their home floor. As long as they don't killed on the boards, they'll end Xavier's unbeaten run. 8* Villanova

10* Dallas (8:35 ET): Right now, we don't know if Steph Curry is playing or not.  But regardless, I'm going against Golden State here as they are going to be asked to lay a fairly big number here in Dallas. Obviously, if Curry doesn't play, it would be a huge plus.  He is still being bothered by a calf injury which limited him X-Mas Day against Cleveland, a game the Warriors probably should have lost.  The fact that interim HC Luke Walton has come out and stated that Curry may not play tomorrow either (team is in Houston) has me thinking that things don't look too good here. Curry made five of his team's 20 (!) three-pointers and had a triple double in Monday's 19-point home victory over Sacramento. I shouldn't have to tell you that potentially not having the reigning MVP would be a major loss. Again though, I'm taking the points either way.

With or without Curry, the Mavericks can be a challenging matchup for the Warriors. Dallas is actually averaging more three point attempts per game this month than is Golden State and they're making them to boot. In fact, their average of 12.1 makes per game (since December 6th) leads the league during that time and they are shooting at a near 40 percent clip as well. The Mavs are averaging a healthy 113.3 PPG during a three-game win streak and this will be just the second time this season that the oddsmakers will be affording them more than five points at home.  The first came last month (against the Clippers) and they won that game outright, 118-108. As an underdog this year, Dallas is 9-7 ATS w/ six outright victories.

Though you may not be able to tell from the final score, Golden State really struggled defensively against Sacramento.  They allowed 61 points in the first half as the Kings were 13 of 31 from three-point range (for the game) and don't think for a second that the Mavs won't be using a similar "blueprint" here.  Eventually, this team (meaning the Warriors) is going to start slipping up.  It just seems unreasonable that they can continue to cover at around a 65% ATS clip given the pointspreads they consistently face on a nightly basis.  In fact, they are just 3-2 ATS this year as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. They are allowing 106.9 PPG on the road this season. 10* Dallas

8* Toronto (7:35 ET): After letting one "get away" from them two nights ago in Chicago, I expect a strong effort out of the Raptors tonight at home. Once again, they'll be facing a team that had their number last season. As you know, Washington surprisingly swept Toronto right out of the playoffs last season. The Raptors did gain a small measure of revenge w/ an 84-82 win in D.C. last month, but failed to cover as 3.5-point favorites. However, using that line as a barometer, it is a bit surprising to see Toronto favored by so little here at home. The Wizards have clearly regressed this season, particularly on the defensive end of the floor (where they give up 104.8 points per game).  Lay the points.

Washington also lost its last home, 108-91 at home to the Clippers. That loss may not sound that bad until you realize the Clippers were w/o Blake Griffin. Yes, the Wiz are dealing w/ injuries of their own right now, most notably SG Bradley Beal's leg. But you shouldn't be losing by 17 points at home, depleted or not.  Beal's absence will certainly be felt in this game as he averaged 20.8 PPG in LY's playoff series. The team is also w/o reserves Nene, Drew Gooden and Gary Neal. But the main problem is still defense and the faster pace the team has played at this year has failed to produce positive results. Currently, the Wizards are being outscored by 5.1 PPG on the road despite actually being 7-7 straight up. But this is a team that's lost ten times by double digits already this season.

Toronto had been sound defensively until giving up 104 points to the Bulls Monday night. That was a game where they wasted a 32-23 lead after one quarter, allowing Chicago to score 55 points after halftime. But, they are still allowing only 96.6 PPG for the season, giving them a big edge on that end of the floor over Washington.  Offensively, the Raptors are tied for fourth in the league in offensive efficiency.  Most important of all though is that the team is now fully healthy w/ Jonas Valanciunas back in the lineup. Both Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan have played very well of late and I feel that this line simply isn't high enough given the respective health of the two teams coming into tonight.  8* Toronto

8* Seton Hall (7:00 ET):  Big East play gets underway here as we have two, under-the-radar teams squaring off in the conference opener. Both Seton Hall and Marquette check in w/ 10-2 SU records and neither is phony as the former has wins over Ole Miss (neutral site) and Wichita State while the latter won at Wisconsin earlier this month. In fact, after starting 1-2 SU, Marquette has now won nine in a row, though save for that road win over Wisconsin, the competition hasn't been all that stellar. The Golden Eagles did leave their home state one time, going to New York, where they picked up wins over LSU and Arizona State. But that was just prior to Thanksgiving and since then, they haven't played anyone of substance. I look for them to be dealt a rude awakening here.  Take the points.

Seton Hall's last loss came on December 2nd at George Washington (who beat Virginia remember) by eight points. Since then, they've won five straight, four of those victories coming by double digits. The Pirates are led by Isaiah Whitehead, who is tops on the team in both scoring (14.8 PPG) and assists (4.1 APG). He had 10 assists in the team's 66-49 win over South Florida last Tuesday, a game in which they never trailed. There is also Angel Delgado, who leads all Big East players w/ 10.1 rebounds per game. He and Khadeen Carrington are the big reasons why this team gets so many points in the paint (36.8 per game) and SH also has posted double-digit second chance points in 10 consecutive games. Speaking of high percentage, the Pirates do an excellent job at getting to the free throw line as they've made nearly the same number of FT's that their opponents have attempted! Defensively, this team is solid as well (63.1 PPG allowed). 

Marquette has generally owned this Big East rivalry through the years (15-2 SU L17 meetings), but this is clearly one of the better Seton Hall teams that they will have faced during that time. The Pirates did come in and pick up a road win last year (w/o Whitehead), 80-70 as 3.5-pt dogs, but then lost to the Golden Eagles at home and then again in the Big East tournament. So, there's still a bit of revenge in play here for the underdog and note Marquette is just 12-26 ATS its last 38 lined home games. Seton Hall is 21-14 ATS the L3 seasons as an underdog.  8* Seton Hall

10* Virginia Tech (12:00 ET):  West Virginia is drawing a lot of attention w/ a 10-1 (SU) start that has them ranked 19th in the country.  Their only loss is to another 10-1 team, that being #5 Virginia, back on December 8th (70-54 as 5.5-pt dogs). However, as impressive as Bob Huggins' team has been, particularly on the defensive end, I see some regression in the cards. This is their first "true" road game of the season and the Mountaineers will also be opening Big 12 play w/ B2B roadies. Also, with the defense, they cannot possibly continue to sustain their current percentages.  Opponents are making only 40.7% of all field goal attempts against WVU this season, including 22.4% from three-point range (lowest percentage in nation). I'll look for Virginia Tech to shoot well enough Wednesday afternoon to stay within the number. Take the points.

Va Tech, like WVU, has not played in over a week. But the Hokies are off a loss here, 79-62 as a 3.5-pt dog on a neutral floor to St. Joe's.  That was just their fourth loss, however, and two of the previous three were by three points or less.  While they've yet to beat any opponent of substance, I anticipate they'll be "dialed in" for this one. I say that because it's a revenge spot for a 31-point loss last season in Morgantown. That was a game that really got away from the Hokies in the second half as it was only a 33-30 game at halftime.  Making only four three-pointers and seven free throws simply wasn't going to get it done for the Hokies there. But sophomore guard Justin Bibbs could be the answer this year. He's among the nation's best from behind the arc at 61.5 percent, including a 7 of 10 effort in the team's last home game. 

Another key here is that Virginia Tech can defend as well w/ opponents shooting only 39.8 percent against them this season (better FG% defense than WVU!) and 30.3 percent from three-point range here in Blacksburg. Yes, I said that WVU's percentages are due to regress and while the same may hold true for the Hokies, my point here is that with points likely at a premium, taking the dog is the right thing to do in this instance. West Virginia has lost each of its last two visits to Blacksburg. 10* Virginia Tech

10* Iowa (9:00 ET):  This is a tough spot for Michigan State as HC Tom Izzo is dealing with the passing of his father (happened yesterday) and the team is without its best player Denzel Valentine.  Still the top ranked team and one of only five remaining unbeatens left in the country, Sparty definitely showed some cracks its last time out (1st game w/o Valentine), a 99-93 win over Oakland that required overtime and saw the team down 13 at halftime. Tonight is their toughest test to date. Iowa can certainly be maddening at times (see blown lead vs. Iowa State), but I look for the Hawkeyes to make good on the fact they are favored in this spot as they are 6-0 SU so far in Iowa City w/ an average margin of victory of 21.8 points per game.

As alluded to above, this is not the first time that Iowa has been matched up against a high-profile unbeaten foe. On December 6th, in Ames, they led Iowa State by 14 in the second half. But then the wheels came off and they ended up losing 83-82. Fortunately, they and I were still able to cover as 7.5-point underdogs.  The oddsmakers are not affording that kind of cushion here, but then again this is at home. I am well aware of Michigan State's past success here and against the Hawkeyes overall (nine straight wins), plus the fact Izzo is 18-4 ATS his L22 road games.  But this year's Iowa team, the Iowa State result aside, has a "different feel" and they are experienced (start four seniors and a junior). They looked very good in last week's 85-63 win over outmanned Tennessee Tech.

Michigan State was lucky to beat Oakland last week. They needed every bit of Bryn Forbes' career high 32 points and Eron Harris scored a season-high 27, which was more than double his previous high.  Asking either to duplicate those respective performances would be asking too much.  This is only MSU's second "true" road game of the season, the first was against a slightly overrated Northeastern squad, who they did beat by 20.  But that was w/ Valentine. As an underdog, Izzo's teams are a surprising 4-9 straight up the last three seasons and this is obviously their first time in that role this season. There's no more excuses for Iowa; it's time for them to win a big game. 10* Iowa

10* Atlanta (8:05 ET):  The Hawks are off a 93-87 loss last night in Indiana, but if you're a regular reader/client, then you know I often feel that teams (particularly road teams) are undervalued in the second game of a back to back.  Such is the case here. Atlanta had won six in a row going into yday and had covered the spread in all but one of those victories. The exception came when they were laying double digits to Portland and got "backdoored" (led by as many as 21 in the fourth quarter). Tonight marks the first time they've been an underdog in B2B games since playing both Oklahoma City and San Antonio in a three-day span. After shooting the ball poorly last night, the team should regain its touch here against a disappointing Rockets squad that remains inept defensively.  Take the points.

Houston actually led the NBA in the ATS standings last season (over 59%), but this year has been a different story as they are just 13-19 ATS overall. They too come in off a loss, theirs coming at New Orleans by a score of 110-108, a game in which they were favored by 1.5 points.  Rockets' fans will want to point out that was a tough spot, coming a day after upsetting an X-Mas upset of San Antonio and that the team had gone 4-1 SU/ATS in its last five games. But there's simply been too many poor efforts from this team all season, particularly on the defensive end. They allow 105.0 points per game, which is bottom five in the league.  Their record off a SU loss as a favorite is not good (1-8 ATS) and as I've talked about before, there's been somewhat of a shift in the balance of power between the NBA's two conferences. The Rockets have certainly felt it as they're 3-9 ATS vs. the East so far this year.

Everyone had Atlanta regressing from last year's shocking 60-win campaign. Yet, even after yday's loss, they are still above .600 and second in the Eastern Conference.  They are one of just five teams to have won 20 games to this point. Before getting held to only 87 points last night in Indiana (where they shot only 41.3 percent and committed 22 turnovers), the Hawks had topped 100 every time out during their six-game win streak (averaged 111.5 PPG on 51.2 percent shooting) and that's something that they should certainly be able to do here. Against teams that allow 99+ PPG, the Hawks are 13-3 SU/11-5 ATS this year. They swept the Rockets last season, including a seven-point win here in Houston. 10* Atlanta

8* Tulsa (5:00 ET): We're down to only five unbeatens left in College Basketball and certainly the least motivated of the bunch has to be SMU, a team that is ineligible for the postseason due to NCAA sanctions. Really, it's pretty impressive that the Mustangs have been able to keep it together like this, especially with their head coach (Larry Brown) suspended until the L2 games. Then again, the schedule hasn't been particularly daunting w/ only a pair of "true" road games and four non-board opponents. Their "best" win came at Michigan, who we've come to find out is a disappointment. This shapes up as SMU's toughest test to date as host Tulsa has double revenge from a season sweep last year. Take the points.

Tulsa may have four losses on its resume, but three of those were by five points or less. They rebounded from a 76-71 loss to Oregon State (where they led the entire first half) by blowing out Northern Arizona 90-55 last Tuesday. Six Golden Hurricane players ended up scoring in double figures in that easy win as the team jumped out to an early 19-0 lead and never looked back.  In fact, the didn't allow a point for the first 7:30 of the game! Unlike many of SMU's previous opponents, the Golden Hurricane can definitely score.  They average 80.5 PPG here at home and are 7-1 ATS after topping 80 pts in their previous game (3-0 ATS this season). This is a team that's beaten Wichita State and won at Oklahoma State. They've scored exactly 90 points in B2B home games.

Tulsa didn't shoot the ball well in either meeting with SMU last season (31.6% from the floor). Considering they are at 48.8% at home this season, I would expect a dramatic improvement tonight.  Both games LY were decided by single digits. SMU is also off a close call last week (Brown's 2nd game back) against Colorado where they won 70-66 as 6.5-point chalk. They've enjoyed hot shooting for the most part this season, but didn't make a single three-pointer against the Buffaloes in Las Vegas.  They also lost the rebounding battle.  In lined games, the Mustangs are only 3-4 ATS and three of their (SU) wins have been by five points or less. Tulsa has covered two of the three games in which they've been an underdog, both times taking the game outright. 8* Tulsa

10* Toronto (8:05 ET):  I'm just not sold on the Bulls under Fred Hoiberg. They picked a convenient time (X-Mas Day) to be "at their best" as they never trailed at Oklahoma City and won the game 105-96 as 10-point underdogs. But the following night in Dallas, they quickly reverted back to their mediocre ways w/ a 118-111 loss (were 2.5-pt dogs). That dropped them to 1-4 SU/ATS their last five games overall.  They are barely outscoring their opponents this season, so I do not believe they are even owed the courtesy of being favored in this spot against a Toronto team that comes in at a lethal 9-2 ATS when taking points. The Raptors were a nice winner for me Saturday night (111-90 at Milwaukee) and I'll back them again here.

Though 11-5 SU at home, Chicago is just 5-11 ATS.  Thus, it shouldn't be too surprising to find this underachieving bunch at a money-burning 6-13 vs. the number when favored this season.  Only the Lakers, who are 11-20 ATS overall, have been worse at the betting window.  Defensively, this team is just not very good right now and the loss of Joakim Noah (out for at least another week) will continue to be felt on that end of the floor. Four of their last five opponents have topped 100 points and it's not even as if Dallas shot the ball lights out on Saturday (46.0 percent from the field).  The Bulls got lucky X-Mas Day in that Oklahoma City had its worst offensive showing of the season. Speaking of offense, the Bulls wasted a 53.8% shooting night against Dallas. Considering that matched a season-best (only third time above 50%!), I expect a decline in production there tonight.  After all, the Bulls rank 27th in the league in terms of offensive efficiency, one of only four teams to average under one point per possession. (The others are Brooklyn, the Lakers and Philadelphia. Not good company).

Toronto had been short-handed for awhile, but tonight looks like the first time we'll see them at full strength in quite some time as Jonas Valanciunas (having a career year) appears likely to return to the lineup. A broken hand kept him out for over a month and during that time both DeMarre Carroll and James Johnson also missed time. In addition to the outstanding record as an underdog, this is a revenge game for the Raptors, who were swept 4-0 in LY's season series with the Bulls. It seems odd that one side would dominate like that when you have two fairly evenly matched teams, so I look for tonight to be Toronto's night.  10* Toronto

10* Duke (8:00 ET):  You'd probably have to be a regular reader/client to remember this, but I did play this matchup last season, only that time I took a much bigger number with underdog Elon (+32.5) and covered easily as the final score was only 75-62. It was the third straight time that the Phoenix had covered here at Cameron Indoor, but the circumstances are a little different this year as Duke has had a lot of time off and promises to be in a surly mood after losing in their previous game, 77-75 to Utah (in overtime) as seven-point favorites. Elon has played a good number of "true" road games thus far, but nothing to prepare them for this giant step up in class.  I say lay the big number.

Duke was also coming off a long break when they faced Elon last year (12 days), but the circumstances were different as they were still unbeaten and coming off an impressive upset of Wisconsin, in Madison.  This time around, there's no threat of a letdown.  I do understand that being w/o Amile Jefferson is cause for concern, however, I don't think his absence was solely to blame for the loss to Utah. The team shot a woeful 29.9 percent from the field, easily their worst game of the season, and still nearly won on a neutral floor. I really think that result should be taken as somewhat of a positive, all things considered.  This is not a deep Blue Devils team, but that's less of an issue here having had more than a full week off. Also, at home, Duke is a perfect 7-0 SU and outscoring opponents by 26.5 points per game.

Elon shoots a lot of three-pointers, but doesn't necessarily make them (31.0 percent on the road).  They were blown out by Michigan earlier in the season (lost by 22) and this is clearly a much tougher opponent, even w/o Jefferson. Last week, the Phoenix pulled out a win at UNC-Asheville, 86-81, but the bad news there is that they are just 2-12 ATS after giving up 80+ points their previous game.  Coach K shouldn't have to worry about foul trouble from Marshall Plumlee (missed most of second half vs. Utah) here and leading scorer Grayson Allen is certainly likely to improve upon his 3 for 18 shooting performance against the Utes. With Elon allowing 77.5 PPG on the road this season, the Blue Devils' offense should have a nice bounce-back performance and the team should win handily.  10* Duke

10* Over Nuggets/Thunder (7:05 ET): The Oklahoma City "Under train" continued X-Mas Day as for the first time all season they failed to hold a lead at any point in the game, losing 105=96 at home to Chicago. They shot just 38.5% in the loss, one of their worst efforts on the offensive end of the floor all year. It was the first time in two weeks that they failed to break triple digits (100 points), a span of seven games.  Tonight, I expect improvement as they take on a downtrodden Denver team that likely will provide little resistance at the defensive end. The Nuggets played last night, scoring only 86 points themselves, but that was against the best defensive team in the league (San Antonio). This should be a high scoring game. Take the Over.

When these teams met earlier this year, the end result was a 117-93 win and cover (-12.5) for the Thunder. The game stayed Under the total, but that's a bit misleading here as the O/U line was all the way up at 113.5, significantly higher than where the number opened up for tonight's rematch.  OKC shot 52.3 percent overall in that first game, including 13 of 25 from three-point range and they didn't miss any free throws either. I should point out that Friday's game vs. Chicago was seemingly on pace to go Over the entire time. That was until the final five minutes when the scoring came to a screeching halt. Non Westbrook/Durant starters were a woeful 5 of 22 from the field. Take Enes Kanter (only other player in double figures) out of the equation and the rest of the team was a horrific 11 of 40 from the field.  The supporting cast is likely to improve tonight. 

Offensive improvement from the Thunder is likely here because the Nuggets are awful defensively.  They allow 103.3 points per game.  OKC is second in the league in terms of offensive efficiency, averaging 108 points per 100 possessions. Denver is 27th in defensive efficiency.  The last four meetings between these two Northwest Division rivals have all seen at least 207 total points scored.  The key here will be short-handed Denver scoring enough to "help" send this one Over. Short-handed as they may be, they should shoot better than the last time they faced OKC (38.5 percent).  10* Over Nuggets/Thunder

8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): After recording a rare (and do I mean RARE) win eight days ago here at home and then winning at Brooklyn, the T'wolves resumed their losing ways, falling to Boston and San Antonio by double digits. The loss to the Spurs dropped them to a miserable 2-13 ATS at home this season and they've won just four times straight up!  This is a team that's gone just 2-10 ATS at the betting window in the month of December, but they've remained competitive (well until the L2 games) as five of those losses have come by six points or fewer. A surprisingly decent start to the season had them somewhat overvalued in the early part of the month, but now more adequately priced, I believe them to be a great value tonight vs. Indiana.  Take the points.

Last month, these teams played and it ended up being a four-point game in Indiana.  That's notable because it was one of the few times Indiana failed to cover in November (went 11-2 ATS) and the line there was -7.5, meaning the number here definitely looks to be inflated. That's somewhat due to Minnesota's struggles here at home. But, for the Pacers, December has not gone as well as November did. They're just 4-8 ATS this month, including four consecutive non-covers and they've lost three in a row in straight up fashion. Though there's certainly been a significant shift in the balance of power between East and West, it's interesting to note that the Pacers are just 2-10 ATS in non-conference games this year (4-8 SU). 

Another fortunate thing for Minnesota here is that Indiana has dropped five in a row on the road. Four of those have come against Western Conference teams and all but one was decided by double digits. They've also allowed a lot of points in those games, giving up 106+ four times. That's more good news for the T'wolves, who are coming off one of their worst offensive showings of the season (scored season-low 83 points), but that is somewhat excusable as it came against the best defensive team in the league, San Antonio.  For Indiana, Paul George has not been feeling well and his game has suffered w/ a 31.6 shooting percentage the L7 games. 8* Minnesota

10* Toronto (5:05 ET): Neither of these teams had to play on X-Mas, so in that regard it's somewhat of a "fair fight." However, there can be no denying as to who has had the better season to this point between the Raptors & Bucks and thus I'll gladly lay the short number, even on the road. Toronto has already beaten Milwaukee twice this season, both times at home, by scores of 106-87 and 90-83. Since then, the Bucks' offensive numbers have gone up, particularly during a three-game ATS win streak. But consider their wins have come at the expense of Philadelphia and Phoenix, neither of whom is very good (particularly the former). The Raptors also last played on Tuesday, giving them a full extra day to prepare here.

After suffering a surprise loss at home to Sacramento on Sunday (were 5.5-pt chalk), Toronto rebounded w/ a win over Dallas, but again failed to cover the spread, this time by just half a point. While the final margin ended up being rather close, take note that the Raptors led that one by as many as 16 at the end of the first quarter.  After shooting 37 percent or worse from the field three times in the previous four games, the offensive production they got against the Mavs was certainly a welcome sight. I expect we'll continue to see an uptick in their overall shooting moving forward. DeMar DeRozan has averaged 27.1 PPG his last eight games and it looks like the team will be healthier than it's been in awhile here after only nine players dressed for the Dallas game thanks to this being the most rest they've had between games all season.

Milwaukee has been arguably the biggest disappointment in the Eastern Conference to this point as they are six games below .500 and being outscored by over five points per game. They were a playoff team last year, but in "name only" as they still finished w/ a sub-.500 record. Therefore, the fact that so many teams in the Eastern Conference are improved this season has really hurt them. So too has a lack of defense as they're giving up 102 PPG. They are also one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. Not only are the Bucks 1-8 SU their L9 vs. the Raptors, but they have dropped three in a row to them here at home. 10* Toronto

8* Kentucky (12:00 ET):  Ever since John Calipari came to Lexington, UK has owned this high-profile, often-intense, in-state rivalry. Coach Cal's Wildcats are 7-1 SU vs. Louisville, including two wins in the NCAA Tournament. They also won LY's meeting 58-50, on the road, as five-point favorites. Yet, coming into this year, it is UK that desperately needs this game. By their own lofty standards, this has been a "down year" in Lexington as Kentucky has opened 9-2 SU w/ losses in two of the last four games. That includes a seven-point loss to Ohio State (as 10-pt favorites) exactly one week ago. But they haven't lost at Rupp Arena and that's where this game is taking place, so I'll gladly lay the short number in a game UK "has to have."

L'ville has played just one "true" road game to this point and it resulted in a loss to #1 Michigan State (71-67 as 5.5-pt dogs). No shame there. However, the rest of the Cardinals' schedule to this point has been somewhat shameful, so take their +22.0 point per game scoring differential w/ a grain of salt. Since losing to Sparty, Rick Pitino's team has hosted the following opponents: Grand Canyon, Eastern Michigan, Kennesaw State, Western Kentucky, Missouri-KC and Utah Valley State. Kentucky has at least played Duke, UCLA and Ohio State. I feel they're more battle-tested to this point and also fresher as L'ville last played on Wednesday.

Getting Kentucky in this price range, at home, has been rare to say the least. They are 10-3 ATS as home favorites of three points or less, but only one of those instances occurred in the L3 seasons. Still, you get an idea for the kind of value we're getting here. Consider that under Coach Cal, the Wildcats are 61-1 SU at home against non-conference competition! They've also covered all three times they've played Louisville the L3 years. These teams have experienced very different results at the betting window thus far in 2015 (L'ville 6-2 ATS, UK 3-8), but those respective records are certainly due to start evening out. Though "down" from last season, Kentucky's offensive rebounding and defensive numbers remain strong. Opponents are shooting just 43.2% on two-point attempts against them. At the same time, their own 24.3 shooting percentage on three-pointers at home is due to increase. 8* Kentucky

10* Over Spurs/Rockets (8:05 ET):  While Golden State continues to "hog" all the national headlines, San Antonio has impressively been able to keep up a historic pace itself. They now own the best per game point differential through 30 games in league history (+13.6). That's after winning their last seven games, six of those victories coming by at least 14 points. There's a lot of reasons for their success, but one of the primary ones has to do w/ the defensive end of the floor, where they are - by far - the best team in the league. Incredibly, they are allowing just 88.8 points per game this year, which is 6 PPG fewer than the second best team. But X-Mas Day brings an excellent opportunity to play the Over as they hit the road to play defensively inept Houston.

The Rockets have been one of the league's bigger disappointments through 30 games. They've fought their way back to .500, but clearly that's not the record most expected coming on the heels of LY's run to the Western Conference Finals. Kevin McHale was made the early season scapegoat and things have turned around since his firing as the team is now 10-5 SU since November 27th. But they did lose Wednesday night in Orlando, 104-101, a result that means they've now gone Under in five straight games. That's obviously surprising because their games are, on average, among the highest scoring in the league (avg of 209.7 PPG).  But tonight's O/U line is way below what they're used to. Back at the end of November, right after the coaching change was made, there was a six-game stretch where every total was 202 pts or lower. Houston went 4-2 Over in those games.

This will be the first matchup of these Southwest Division rivals this season, but note that the last three of the 2014-15 season all went Over the total.  As stated earlier, Houston is among the worst defensive teams in the league, giving up 105.6 PPG. San Antonio scored 110, 110 and 104 in its last three games vs. Houston, so what we'll need from the Rockets is for them to come close to their YTD scoring average of 104.1 PPG.  They did in two of those last three matchups with the Spurs, who are shooting 52.3% from the floor their L5 games. 8* Over Spurs/Rockets

10* Cleveland (5:00 ET): This will be the first meeting between these two since last year's NBA Finals, which were of course won by Golden State in six games (after trailing 2-1 in the series). But the Cavaliers team the Warriors will see here is going to be demonstrably different than the one they faced in June. For starters, both Kyrie Irving AND Kevin Love will be on the court. Irving was lost in Game 1 of the NBA Finals and Love didn't play at all. No matter how invincible the Warriors are perceived to be, that's a big deal when examining the previous meeting. Also, in addition to being much better defensively this season, you get the feeling that the Cavs have been pointing to this game all season long. Meanwhile, Golden State has had to deal w/ basically taking every team's best shot, night in and night out. Take the points.

Cleveland comes into this game having won six straight. Wednesday's win over the Knicks was less than enthralling, but ended up being the latest in a string of strong defensive efforts. They've held four of the last five opponents below 90 points, certainly an unfair benchmark to expect here, but this simply reinforces my earlier statement that the Cavs are a much improved team defensively this season. Last year, they entered the playoffs ranked 18th in terms of defensive efficiency, essentially disqualifying them from the profile of a typical NBA Champion. So far this year, they rank a far more impressive sixth. While you do have to adjust for pace of play, it is worth noting that Cleveland is giving up 6.8 points per game fewer than Golden State. 

Being an underdog of this magnitude is almost unprecedented for a LeBron James team. Taking points this year, the Cavs are 2-1 ATS this year, but the one non-cover came w/ LeBron out of the lineup (at Miami). Note that this is a larger spread than all but one of the games from the Finals and that's w/ Irving and Love back in the lineup. That one game was Game 2, the first after the Irving injury, and Cleveland of course won that game outright. This shapes up as Golden State's toughest test of the season so far and eventually their 67 percent ATS record is due to regress. 10* Cleveland

10* Over Bulls/Thunder (2:30 ET): Oklahoma City's string of Unders continues to astound me (14-1 Under L15 games). This is a team that ranks second in the league in terms of offensive efficiency (trailing obviously Golden State). They average 108.5 points per 100 possessions and lately that number has actually gone up, not down. They, in fact, have averaged 108.8 points per game their L5 after a 120-point effort against the Lakers Tuesday night. However, the real key when it comes to the O/U results of late is that their opponents haven't been holding up their "end of the bargain." Obviously, give some credit to the Thunder defense, but there's been some bad teams in the mix there, most notably the Lakers twice as they've scored just 78 and 85 points in those two games. Chicago will be a different challenge defensively. Take the Over.

The Bulls have gone Over in three straight games. The numbers are clearly going to be skewed because of the quadruple overtime game vs. Detroit. But even that was a 105-105 game at the end of regulation, which would have meant the Over had already cashed before extra time.  They followed that up w/ only a 91-point effort against the Knicks (allowed 107), but then two days later scored 102 (but still lost by three points to Brooklyn). While Chicago's offensive efficiency numbers may not be ideal, they still come in averaging over 100 PPG. However, the real difference between this team under Fred Hoiberg and previous editions under Tom Thibodeau is on the defensive end. On the road, they are allowing 102.3 PPG. That number does not include the Detroit game as it was at home.

These teams already played once this year (November 5th) and it went down as a 104-98 final in favor of the Bulls. That was an Under, but the total was several points higher than it is here. Both teams shot the ball relatively well from three-point range and especially from the free throw line.  It was a 57-50 game (again, in favor of Chicago) at halftime. So, it was odd that the game stayed Under by double digits. The "issue" ended up being the third quarter, particularly the last three minutes which saw only seven total points scored. From the time that there was three minutes left in the quarter to the one minute mark, just a single point was scored. This will be a different story as it's a great value on both sides - but particularly with OKC who has been involved in only one game w/ a closing total below 200 points and just five under 204.  10* Over Bulls/Thunder