analysis soon

10* Boston (7:35 ET): Utah is a team that climbed to "unthinkable heights" in my own personal power rankings (as high as #6 two weeks ago!). But four straight losses, the last one coming against Chicago, have them now trending in the wrong direction and it's fair to wonder if they've peaked. Of course, "losing to Chicago" is not something the Jazz have exclusivity on in this particularly matchup as they face a Boston team that lost to the Bulls earlier in the week - by 23 points! But the Celtics have pretty clearly been a more consistent team than the Jazz through 30 games and not only that, they've been deadly at the pay window (20-8-2 ATS). They're off a win (over Denver) and at home, deserve to be favored by more here. Lay the number.

Prior to losing four in a row, the Jazz had won six straight while going 6-0 ATS in the process. That win streak was snapped w/ a (100-94) loss at Oklahoma City where they at least covered as 8.5-pt pups. But since then, it's been a steady decline. They lost to both Houston and Milwaukee by double digits, then to the lowly Bulls as 5.5-pt road chalk. They actually trailed by as many as 12 points against a team that has just 7 wins all season. Joe Johnson, out since October, is now listed as probable to return tonight, but I'm not sure how much that will matter given the Jazz's road woes. They are just 2-10 SU/4-8 ATS outside of Salt Lake City this year and you can point squarely to defensive decline as the main culprit for the woes. While they allow only 95.1 PPG at home, Utah allows 106.6 PPG on the road. 

Boston is of course #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and also gives up just 98.0 PPG, 2nd in the league behind San Antonio. Of course, this game was to be the first meeting of Gordon Hayward against his former team, but a horrific injury on Opening Night ruined that. But instead of sinking w/o Hayward (big FA signing), the Celtics have thrived, going 24-6 SU and posting the best ATS record in the league. Given the state of their visitor tonight, they look like a "steal" laying this short of a number. 10* Boston

8* Under Heat/Hornets (7:05 ET): In surveying the current landscape in the Eastern Conference, I would have to call these two Southeast Division rivals my two biggest disappointments. Prior to the season, I had both making the playoffs. Right now, I don't believe either will. In the case of Charlotte, it's been an ongoing series of bad luck - whether you want to talk injuries or an inability to win close games. For Miami, I'm still not entirely sure what's gone wrong here. But I did just (successfully) play against them Weds night, hosting Portland, as they lost 102-95 as small favorites. Charlotte, meanwhile, has to be happy w/ the fact it just split a pair of road games w/ OKC and Houston. I have no read on the side here, so it's the total we're going to analyze.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom third in the league in offensive efficiency. That right there should give you an initial glimpse into where I'm going here. The Heat are one of six teams in the league that has gone Under in at least 60% of their games and that includes three straight. Perhaps Wednesday's game staying Under should have come as no surprise considering Portland is the top Under team in the league right now. After scoring 60 pts in the first half, Miami was held to just 35 in the 2H. They are 6-1 Under this season when facing an opponent that has a losing record (Charlotte is 10-17 SU). Road games have seen the Heat go 9-4 Under and that's a trend that has persisted across multiple seasons as the Under is 63-38-2 in all their road games the L3 seasons.

Being that they're in the same division, these teams obviously meet regularly. They have a history of going Under against one another as that's the way 23 of the 30 all-time meetings in Charlotte have gone, including six of the last seven. One thing you can "tip your cap" to Miami for is the fact they hold opponents just under 100 PPG on the road (99.9!). Only San Antonio and Boston have been stingier away from home. Charlotte is not a great shooting team, particularly from distance as they rank 24th in three-point FG's made and percentage. They were just 5 of 20 from behind the arc against Houston. They really miss Cody Zeller, not to mention their HC Steve Clifford. Prior to losing to Portland, the Heat had held their previous two opponents both under 90 pts. That's a real possibility again here as Charlotte has shot below 41.5% from the floor in four of its last six contests. 8* Under Heat/Hornets

10* Under Santa Clara/USC (10:00 ET): It's funny. When I think of these two programs, I can always remember that one "claim to fame" Santa Clara has (a NCAA Tournament upset of Arizona back in 1992!), but never anything memorable for USC during that last 25 years. That being said, there's no debating that the Broncos would gladly trade spots w/ the Trojans' lot in the overall College Basketball landscape. Well, maybe not right now. Southern Cal has lost three in a row, falling to SMU, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. Each of those losses came w/ ample time between games. In fact, this will be just the fourth game for the Trojans in the L18 days. But I'm not about to lay the big number, particularly because they don't shoot the ball well. Take the Under. 

Both teams come into this Thurs night matchup off high-scoring affairs that double as close losses. Santa Clara suffered what could be termed a "slight upset" (were 2-pt favorites) at home to Portland State. It was the second consecutive game where the Broncos let the opponent shoot 56% from the floor. That can't happen a third straight time, right? Not likely, especially w/ USC having yet to shoot even 50% in any game this season. As for the Santa Clara offense, they've run hot and cold all season long. While they have topped 50% in four of their games, they've never done it consecutively and they've also been below 40% in four games as well. If the pattern holds, tonight should be one of the "cold ones."

USC lost by two to Oklahoma its last time out, a result that could have certainly qualified as a "bad beat" for some (were +3). The Trojans trailed by 12 at the half (and by as many as 18 in the 2H) and never led at any point in the game. The loss dropped them from the Top 25 rankings, a place I'm not sure they deserved to be in the first place. SC fell victim to an Oklahoma three-point flurry as the Sooners tied their season-high w/ 15 makes from behind the arc. Good thing they are back home tonight as they allow only 61.2 PPG in LA. Santa Clara averages only 63.7 PPG on the road. 10* Under Santa Clara/USC

10* LA Lakers (8:05 ET): Cleveland has been doing a lot of winning of late (15-1 L16 games!), but until they dramatically improve on the defensive end, it will be difficult to take them seriously as any kind of legit threat to win the Larry O'Brien trophy. They still rank only 27th in defensive efficiency, which is up from early on in the season when they were at the very bottom. As a result, they're still only outscoring foes by about 3.6 points per game on the season. Their home ATS record is a money-burning 2-12 and it's not like they've been beating the "cream of the crop" during this win streak of theirs. If fact, NONE of their last 15 wins have come against a team that is more than one game above .500! So I think the Lakers keep this one closer than expected.

Sticking w/ our defensive theme for a moment, the Lakers have improved dramatically in this area as they are all the way up to eighth in efficiency after ranking dead last a year ago. After opening this four game East Coast swing w/ a pair of wins (over Philly and Charlotte), LA dropped a tough one in New York Tuesday night, losing by only four as 2.5-pt dogs. It was an overtime game. While you'd maybe like to have seen them win that one, note they almost did despite leading scorer Brandon Ingram finishing w/ a season-low five points on 2 of 12 shooting. You have to figure he'll have a better night here. 

Cleveland has just been a terrible bet all season long, except for the select number of times they have been an underdog (5-0 ATS!). As a favorite, they're a hideous 5-17 ATS, so it should come as no shock to you to find that they are also 3-11 ATS when facing a squad that has a losing record. Five of their previous six wins have come by single digits and those were against Atlanta, Philadelphia, Memphis and Sacramento. Three of those teams (Philly the exception) are worse than the Lakers right now. When you give up 109 PPG at home for the season, it's difficult to cover large spreads such as this one. 10* LA Lakers

10* LSU (9:00 ET): Houston has just one loss on its resume (Drexel!), but I'm not convinced they should be a favorite tonight down in Baton Rouge. This is the time of year where "investigating" a team's record would suit you well. Not all won-loss records are "created equally" and in the case of Houston we have a team that just played its first "true" road game of the season back on Saturday. While the result, a 77-58 win, appears to be a positive sign, note that it came at the expense of lowly St. Louis. UH did drub Arkansas earlier this month (at home), but remember what I said earlier - they also lost to Drexel (as 14-pt chalk, on a neutral floor). Take the points here. 

LSU has played only seven games thus far and is 5-2 SU. Their losses came against Notre Dame and Marquette, two pretty good teams (especially the Irish). Those took place right before Thanksgiving and the Tigers have since bounced back w/ a pair of convincing wins, first over Tenn Martin, then over UNC Wilmington. Both were here in Baton Rouge. While Houston can certainly score "with the best of 'em" (81.7 PPG), LSU's offense has been even more prolific and at home (where they are a perfect 4-0 SU), the Bayou Bengals are averaging a whopping 96.2 points per contest! Defensively, they may have their issues, but they do rank in the top 30 in adjusted offensive efficiency in the KenPom ratings. In fact, LSU is #1 in the COUNTRY in two-point field goal percentage (63.1!) after shooting 45 of 74 from inside the arc the L2 games.

This is the best start for any Houston team since the 2007-08 squad. Because of the good start, they are a threat to win 20+ games this year. But this is one that should end up being a loss. My guess is that the Arkansas game ends up being UH's "best win" by season's end. They won't be as successful defensively here as they were Saturday at St. Louis, whom they held to 58 points on 36.4% shooting. Look for LSU big-man Duop Reath to be the difference maker in this one as he is coming off a 30-point game (in only 27 minutes of action). His size (he's 6'11") will be an issue for the guard-oriented Cougars. 10* LSU

10* Portland (7:35 ET): The Blazers have hit a bit of a rough patch as they've lost five in a row while giving up 113.4 points per game and allowing opponents to shoot above 51% from the field. This is a far cry from what we saw from this team in the early part of the season as they ranked near the top of the league in defensive efficiency (still 7th!). Now, many were predicting this "downfall," noting Portland had played arguably the league's easiest schedule over the first month. The fact that they lost four in a row at home was still surprising though; just as much as losing at Golden State (no Curry) on Monday was not. But after playing the Rockets and Warriors consecutively, it's a steep drop in class in terms of opponent for tonight and I don't agree w/ the oddsmakers that Portland should be the dog here. Take the points. 

Given some of the numbers (and the fact the Dubs were w/o Curry), you might have thought Portland should have won Monday night in Oakland. Damian Lillard led the way w/ 39 pts, the 10th time going over 30 this season. The team made 92% of its FT attempts (23 of 25) and turned it over just nine times in the game, five fewer than GSW. So what went wrong? Well, Golden State (Kevin Durant in particular) couldn't miss as they shot 55% from the floor. To be honest, the Dubs even led by 18 going into the fourth quarter. Now, you might then be concerned over the fact Portland is now facing a team that has shot the ball at better than a 56% clip in B2B victories. But don't be. The Heat are still languishing near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency (23rd) and wins over the likes of Memphis and Brooklyn should not lead to any sort of critical re-evaluation. 

Furthermore, the Heat are still w/o Hassan Whiteside (until January) and this is the first time they're coming off B2B wins in almost three weeks. Again, the wins came at the expense of the Nets and Grizzlies, two bad teams. Those two victories simply are not indicative of what we've seen from the Heat so far this season as they allowed sub-90 pts in both, but are still giving up 106.6 PPG at home this year. I thought this would be a better team coming into 2017-18, but the bottom line is they've been outscored and continue to have a negative net efficiency rating. They are only 2-7 ATS at home and were actually a dog at Memphis on Monday. This season has seen the Heat go a poor 1-4 ATS when off a SU win as a dog. 10* Portland

8* Oklahoma City (7:00 ET): The big "storyline" heading into this game will be Paul George returning to Indiana to face his former team. But, for me, the issue is when (if ever?) will the Thunder start to turn things around. This has been a team, all season long, that you would think is destined to have a better record. After all, they've been outscoring their opponents by a decent margin. But 26 games into the campaign, OKC still has a losing record (12-14) and a new nadir may have been established two nights ago when they lost to a severely short-handed Hornets team, 116-103 at home. It was the Thunder's ninth consecutive ATS loss. Even though the team is just 3-10 SU on the road, I'm "buying low" here against an Indiana team that has overachieved. 

When the deal was made to send George to OKC in exchange for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis, no one could have anticipated that the Pacers (16-11) would have the better record of the two teams more than a one-quarter of the way into the season. But they do. Oladipo himself has been a major reason for that as he's leading Indiana w/ 24.5 points per game. The Pacers have now won four straight, all here at home, including one over Cleveland where they ended the Cavs' franchise-best 13-game win streak (Cleveland's only loss in its last 16 games!).  By most objective measures (point differential, net efficiency), this is probably the 4th best team in the East right now. But will this "overachievement" continue? I'm remain a little skeptical of that as this isn't a very good defensive team (allows 107.5 PPG at home!) and they're just 2-5 ATS this season after a double-digit win. Monday, they beat Denver 126-116. 

OKC, conversely, has been one of the biggest underachievers in the league so far. There's just no way this team should have a losing record given the talent on hand. Some of it has to do w/ bad luck. They've lost four games by three points or less and are 4-10 SU in games decided by eight points or less. (Indiana is a league-best 4-0 SU in games decided by 3 pts or less). Though they are sometimes guilty of faltering down the stretch in games, OKC's defense is still #2 in efficiency, trailing only Boston. Then there's this: when these teams met earlier in the season (October 25), the Thunder were 13-pt favorites and won 114-96. Using that 1st meeting as a baseline, it would certainly appear as if there's a TON of value on OKC for the rematch. They've got to break this ATS losing streak, right? 8* Oklahoma City

8* Phoenix (10:05 ET): Even w/o Devin Booker (leading scorer), I believe the Suns can still beat the Kings in this battle of bottom three teams in the league. Just look at what happened to the Suns themselves their last time out. Facing a very depleted Spurs team, they lost 104-101. Often times, we see the marketplace overreact to an injury and that's what we have here. The Kings are very bad and probably shouldn't be favored over anyone at this point. Maybe the Bulls, if they were visiting, but w/ Chicago posting B2B wins, I now have Sacramento rated at the bottom of the league. They're being outscored by a ghastly 10.8 points per 100 possessions, which is just wretched no matter how you slice it. Getting points against the Kings is not a situation that will present itself all too often this season. In fact, this will be just their fourth game as chalk and they've gone 1-2 SU, 0-2-1 ATS in role so far. 

The Kings have not been favored by more than two points against anyone previous to tonight and two of the three instances of them as chalk came back in October. They lost both games outright, one at Phoenix. Interesting is that two of the three times they've been favored actually came on the road! The only time they've been favored since November 1st was at Chicago (12.1) and they won by exactly one point as 1-pt faves. Their lone appearance as home chalk this season came against New Orleans and they lost outright, 114-106. Though there are teams w/ worse records, no one can "match" the Kings' negative efficiency rating or YTD point differential, both of which are currently league worsts. 

Even w/o Booker, I expect Phoenix to be much more potent offensively than their adversary in this matchup. They come in averaging 107.1 PPG, which is the second highest average in the entire league right now! Sacramento is dead last in the league in points per game (96.1) and 29th in offensive efficiency (ahead of only Chicago). Marquese Chriss is one player that has picked up the slack in Booker's absence w/ 26 total pts in the L2 games. I expect the Suns to "push the pace" tonight as they rank 2nd in tempo league-wide while Sacramento is 28th. Note that they still won that first meeting despite attempting 22 fewer shots than the Kings! The Suns were far more efficient that day (54.5 FG%) and are likely to be again this evening. 8* Phoenix

8* Princeton (7:00 ET): The Ivy League contingent has yet to cover a single spread this season (0-5 ATS) and returns home not only looking to snap a three-game SU losing streak, but also w/ revenge on its mind. The Tigers have had plenty of time to stew over last week's 71-60 loss at GW, but perhaps foremost on their minds here will be a six-point loss to Monmouth (tonight's opponent) last season. Interestingly enough, that would be their final loss of the 2016-17 regular season as Princeton closed on a 17-game win streak (perfect vs. Ivy League!) before bowing out to Notre Dame in the NCAA Tournament. They come into this year's matchup w/ Monmouth having a slightly worse record (2-6 SU) and this is their second three-game losing streak this season. But I believe the Monmouth game again signals a turnaround for the Tigers and I'll be on them tonight. 

Monmouth, ironically, also has lost its last three games. Unlike Princeton, they had to play over the weekend (Saturday) and it was a marquee game against Kentucky that they lost 93-76. After playing such a high-profile opponent (at a neutral site, no less!), this game is far less likely to hold the Hawks attention than it will for Princeton. Given the game vs. UK was closer to their "backyard," needless to say it was a disappointing showing for Monmouth, who shot only 37.1% from the floor while giving up 93 points. The Hawks trailed by 23 at half and it was never close. Overall, the Hawks have dropped six of seven and while three of those defeats have come by five points or fewer, they're still being outscored by 8.8 points per game away from home (whether "true" road game or neutral site).

Princeton has played only three home games thus far and surprisingly they've lost two of them. Early in the year, they were favored here over BYU (-3.5), so that shows the respect they had from the books at one time. A loss here to Lehigh is what begat the current three-game slide and while scoring has been a bit of an issue for these Tigers, they are at least connecting at a 37.9% clip from behind the three-point arc. Monmouth is giving up almost 80 PPG for the year, so I feel this is the game where the Princeton offense finally breaks loose. In particular, keep an eye on senior PG Amir Bell, who got off to a similar slow start last year. Bell was shutout in 32 minutes vs. GW last week, a performance that certainly won't be repeated. 8* Princeton

10* Toronto (10:35 ET): As a potential NBA Finalist, no one takes the Raptors seriously, but statistically speaking they have been superior to their main rivals in the Eastern Conference, Boston and Cleveland. In fact, only Golden State and Houston can claim a better net efficiency rating league-wide. Toronto comes into tonight's game riding a six-game win streak, the last two coming out on the road, and all but one of those victories has been by at least nine points! They won easily last night, 102-87 over lowly Sacramento. The Clippers have been beseiged by injuries (most notably Blake Griffin) and as a result are only 9-15 SU. They did win their last time out - by one over Washington - but won't be as fortunate here. Lay the points. 

That Clippers' win over the Wizards took place here at home on Saturday and snapped a four-game losing streak. They were catching the Wiz in a somewhat favorable spot as it was a fourth straight game out West w/o John Wall. Here, Toronto may be playing the second night of a back to back, but they are at full strength and a better team than Washington to boot. Key here is the Raptors' offensive efficiency, which ranks 3rd in the league (trailing only GSW and Houston) going up against a Clippers' defense which ranks 28th in efficiency, ahead of only Phoenix and Sacramento. The Raptors are averaging 118 points per over their last five contests and have scored at least 100 in 12 consecutive games.

Toronto is running a more up-tempo approach offensively and as you can tell, it's been successful. "The new offense is coming along well," DeMar DeRozan said, according to the Toronto Star. "We're getting more and more comfortable, ball movement is getting much better and guys getting more comfortable handling the ball, pushing the ball in transition. Now everybody's getting a feel for the offense. That's a good thing. And we've still got a long way to go." Remember that the Clips have not posted B2B wins in over two weeks and their win Saturday came on a 30-foot three-pointer w/ one second to go in regulation. They're also 2-15 ATS the L3 seasons when coming off three or more consecutive Overs (0-4 ATS so far this season). Toronto led wire to wire last night and did so despite sub-par shooting from PG Kyle Lowry. It was a day game too; so this is NOT a "traditional" back to back. 10* Toronto

10* South Florida (7:00 ET): This in-state battle may lack appeal for the casual bettor, but situationally I love the spot for the short home favorite, who is off a bad loss while its visitor is off a surprise win. Both USF and FIU last played nine days ago. On December 2nd, the former lost badly up at Appalachian State, 84-61 (9-pt dogs). It was the Bulls' worst loss to date and their third in a row overall. As for FIU, they pulled a moderate upset over South Alabama that same day, winning by a shocking margin (29 points!) as two-point dogs. Needless to say, I don't think we'll be seeing that kind of performance from the Panthers anytime soon! Note it came at home and this will be just the second "true" road game of the year for FIU. They lost the first, by 15, at WI-Milwaukee. I'm laying the short number here.

Not much is expected from USF in 2017-18 as they've been predicted to finish near the bottom of the AAC. There's not a ton of offensive firepower here as they average only 63.8 PPG, but you have to figure they'll be at least a little sharper than they were their last time here in Tampa, which saw them shoot an abysmal 29.2% from the floor in 65-47 loss to Eastern Michigan. They've since followed that up w/ two losses in North Carolina, to Elon and Appalachian State. We already discussed the latter a bit and the former came by just a single point. Defensively, the Bulls are better than what they've shown the L2 games. They allow just 60.0 PPG at home and I'm counting on them holding FIU to a far worse shooting percentage than the 51.9% we saw from App State nine days ago. 

FIU did not shoot well in its only "true" road game to date, the aforementioned 66-51 loss to WI-Milwaukee. In that game, the Panthers shot just 35% from the floor. They've only been above 45.5% in two games all year and those happen to be the last two games. Certainly, look for them to "come back down to Earth" after the stunning showing against South Alabama, a game which saw FIU feast off turnovers and benefit from USA completely imploding down the stretch (just one FG make in final six minutes). Note FIU is just 1-5-1 ATS their L7 games off an ATS win and 2-6-1 ATS their L9 off a SU win. Meanwhile, USF is 5-1 ATS following an ATS defeat. Three of FIU's four wins this year have come against non-DI foes. No doubt that USF has played the tougher schedule to date (played at Indiana) and the key here will be their defense. Also, don't discount the fact that FIU is horrible from the FT line where they shoot just 57.5%. That matters in a game that's "supposed to be" close like this one. 10* South Florida

8* Boston (4:05 ET): Thanks to its early season 16-game win streak, the Celtics have remained comfortably in front of the pack in the Eastern Conference. However, their lead has shrunk down to three games over hard-charging Cleveland, who has won 14 of its last 15. Boston is off a loss here, in a "playoff-like" game at San Antonio. The final score was 105-102 (didn't cover as 2.5-pt dogs) as Kyrie Irving's three-point attempt at the buzzer went in and out. Tonight, the C's look to avenge one of their five losses this season in a visit to Detroit where they'll find a Pistons team that has fallen on "hard times." Since beating Boston on 11.27, the Pistons have gone just 1-5 SU and they're winless (0-5) here in December. 

As was the case w/ Boston, there was no real shame in the Pistons' last loss, although their opponent was w/o a key contributor. While Boston lost to the Kwahi Leonard-less Spurs, Detroit lost to the Steph Curry-less Warriors on Friday, 102-98 as 5.5-point home pups. The Pistons did have the halftime lead, but were outscored 31-17 in the third quarter and did not recover. That's five straight losses and counting for a team that was an early season surprise in the East. They have wins over both the Celtics and Warriors, but it will be interesting to see how they perform in yet another instance of a top team seeking revenge against them. My guess is that this game goes pretty similar to the last one. During the course of the losing streak, Detroit is shooting only 42.3% from the field and is being outscored by 6.8 points per game. 

Boston is 19-7-1 ATS in all of its games this season and continues to get it done w/ defense as they are #1 in the league in points allowed (97.5 per game) and efficiency. Simply put, I would not expect a repeat of when the Pistons scored 118 pts on better than 50% shooting in last month's meeting. Boston will be w/o some minor contributors this afternoon, but Kyrie Irving is taking off the facemask and will be at full strength. The Celtics have not dropped B2B games since starting the season 0-2 and have won by an average of 17 PPG off their last two losses. 8* Boston

8* Chattanooga (1:00 ET): UTC was not expected to be a major player in the SoCon coming into the year and has started just 4-5 straight up. But that record could be a lot better were it not for several close decisions that went the opposite way. Three times already, the Mocs have lost a game that was decided by five points or less. That includes their last time out, a 70-66 setback at Marshall where they at least covered as eight point dogs. I think it is significant that the Mocs are favored here. Yes, it is at home, but it's also illustrative of just how weak the opponent is as well. Charlotte is 0-5 ATS right now and has dropped their last three games - SU - overall. Lay the points.

Chattanooga led by six over Marshall going into the half, but could not hold the lead and lost a close one. Making the result all the more frustrating is the fact Marshall went just 1 for 16 from three-point range. They simply could not stop the Thundering Herd on the interior as Marshall finished the game a somewhat ridiculous 28 of 46 on two-point attempts. Don't count on Charlotte doing the same, however. Even w/ 31 free throws attempted (made 22), they still could not stay within 20 points of Wake Forest on Tuesday and that was at home. The 49ers finished that game at just 15 of 47 overall from the field, 31.9%. They missed 18 of 23 three-pointers as well. 

Typically, Chattanooga has been pretty stout at the defensive end. At least at home they are, as they've held visiting teams to an average of just 59.2 PPG on 39.4% shooting. Getting this game at home "changes everything" for the Mocs as they are 0-4 SU away from home, but 4-1 SU inside of McKenzie Arena. They are particularly sharp from behind the three-point arc here, making 43.3% of all attempts from there at home. As for Charlotte, they have issues defensively as they're giving up 79.1 points per game for the year and their two "true" road games thus far have seen them yield 83 and 87 pts. As mentioned earlier, Charlotte has not covered a single spread this season (0-5 ATS) and they're also just 6-35 SU L3 seasons when priced as the underdog. Meanwhile, Chattanooga is a strong 28-5 SU its L33 home games. 8* Chattanooga

10* Portland (10:05 ET): The Blazers come into tonight's game as losers of three straight and won't have center Jusuf Nurkic in the lineup. So that hardly makes them an ideal candidate to snap Houston's superb run, but thankfully they won't have to as the number of points we're getting from the oddsmakers here seem rather generous. Now the Rockets have been on fire since the start of November, losing only once in 15 games. They've won their last eight games - all by double digits! If any team has earned the right to be mentioned in the same breath as Golden State, it is the Rockets. But, on the road, the spread is just too high here. Take the points.

For Houston, this is the end of a three-game road trip that began Sunday. As you'd expect, they had little to no problem beating the Lakers to start the trip off on the "right foot." Then, with ample time between games, they beat Utah 112-101 Thursday night. It's tough finding any deficiencies in this team's attack right now as James Harden leads the league in scoring and Chris Paul is making everyone else better (especially Ryan Anderson). But this is a big number to lay on the road, especially against a playoff caliber opponent. The last two times the Rockets had to play a 2nd road game in 3 nights, they got to face Atlanta and Memphis. This game will be a far greater challenge.

Portland's three game losing streak has taken place entirely at home, which is very disappointing. This has always been a strong team at the Moda Center, so this year's 7-7 SU start makes little to no sense. I anticipate a "best effort possible" scenario tonight. Though it has a bit to do w/ a fairly weak early season schedule, the Blazers still rank 4th in the league in defensive efficiency. Offensively, they actually shoot better from behind the three-point line than does Houston, especially here at home (38.0%). With their backs seemingly up against a wall, I look for a strong performance out of the home dog tonight. 10* Portland

8* Over Sixers/Cavs (8:05 ET): Cleveland saw it's 13-game win streak come to an end last night in Indiana and ironically it was a fourth quarter OFFENSIVE meltdown that deserved the blame. All of a sudden, after scoring 86 pts through three quarters, LeBron and company "couldn't hit water from a boat" as they didn't make a single field goal attempt in the first six minutes of the 4Q. That was a 63-57 game at halftime mind you, that ended up "only" being a 102-106 final (stayed Under). But in addition to their usual offensive prowess, the Cavs remain a poor defensive outfit (24th in efficiency) even w/o Derrick Rose. They, like their opponent tonight, are due for an Over and that's the way I see this one going.

Philly's famed "process" has hit a bit of a speedbump recently, most notably w/ bad losses to Phoenix and the Lakers in the L2 games. I can't say that I'm surprised to see them giving at least "a little" back as LY this team benefited from generous spreads en route to finishing w/ the league's #1 ATS record. They got off to another strong start at the pay window this year, but are now just 1-5 ATS their L6 games. Their L4 games have all stayed Under, but the last two both featured very high O/U lines. The Sixers' defensive efficiency may be better than Cleveland's, but they give up more points (110.4 per game on the road!) thanks in large part to the pace they play at, which ranks as fourth fastest (in terms of number of possessions per game) in the league.

Cleveland's last three games have all stayed Under, but keep in mind that two of those were against Chicago and Sacramento, the two worst offensive teams in this league. At home this year, the Cavs are still giving up a ghastly 109.5 PPG. They have, however, scored 100+ pts in 19 consecutive games, a franchise record. They've also made at least 10 three-pointers in 15 straight games. Now Philly did not shoot well at all in the 1st meeting vs. Cleveland this year (lost 113-91) and that was w/ Joel Embiid scoring 30 pts. Embiid reportedly won't play tonight (rest), but I can't see the team shooting just 37.5% again against this Cleveland defense. Take the Over. 8* Over Sixers/Cavs

8* Valparaiso (2:00 ET): It's pretty rare to find Valpo as the underdog in this in-state battle. Each of the L2 seasons has seen them favored by about 10 pts over Ball State. Now they did lose one of those games outright (here in Muncie) and won LY's rematch by only four. But given an 8-1 SU start this year, I'm fairly shocked the Crusaders are getting points here. Well, maybe not. They did lose Thursday, at Purdue, by 30 points. But that's a result we can now use to our advantage as it has created a ton of value, in essence making Valpo a "buy low" opportunity. Meanwhile, on the flip side, Ball State is off a shocking upset of Notre Dame as 18-pt dogs in South Bend. Previous results have conspired here for an ideal situation.

Admittedly, Valpo had not really played an opponent of any real consequence before venturing into West Lafayette two nights ago. But, you still would have expected more from them. Now they were actually leading the Boilermakers early. But a 21-4 run by Purdue in the 1H all but sealed the game. Valpo shot just 33% from the floor overall and 3 of 16 from behind the 3-pt line. They attempted only 12 free throws and remain winless all-time at Mackey Arena. But it's important to realize that was just one game and this team was undefeated prior to it. They are 9-1 SU the L3 seasons after a game in which they allowed 80+ points. They are also 3-0 SU/ATS this season playing for the second time in three days. 

The mentality of it "just being one game" also certainly applies to Ball State and what they pulled off earlier in the week. No one, most notably the Fighting Irish themselves, saw the upset of Notre Dame coming. BSU opened this season 1-4 SU, including blowout losses at Oklahoma and Oregon. They had turned things around a little w/ three straight wins heading into the ND game, but an outright win in South Bend was still shocking. The Cardinals had not beaten a nationally ranked opponent in 16 years. There was a shocking edge in rebounding there for BSU, something that is not common in their games this season. Also, they won on a last second three-pointer. Note they are still giving up over 80 PPG for the year and are just 8-22 ATS in the favorite role the L3 seasons (1-6 laying three or less at home). 8* Valparaiso

10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): The Bucks came through for me in their last game (barely!) by outlasting Detroit 104-100 as 3.5-pt chalk. Now comes a lesser opponent, Dallas, who has not performed well on the road this season. Granted, it's still fair to call Milwaukee a "disappointment" at this juncture, seeing as they are "only" 13-10 SU and this was a team that came into 2017-18 w/ aspirations of finishing near the top of the Eastern Conference. But the Mavs would "kill" to be in the position Milwaukee is in right now, considering they're just 7-18 SU, a record which has them at the very bottom of the Western Conference. They have been competitive of late (6-1 ATS L7 games!), but all that's done is drive this line down too far. Lay the short number here.

Earlier I mentioned that the Mavs haven't played well on the road this year. That's actually an understatement considering a 2-8 SU record where they've been outscored by an average of 8.2 points per game. Wednesday, they lost by "only" seven up in Boston (97-90), but the offense was again very bad as the team shot below 40% from the field and managed only 33 total pts in the second half. Keep in mind that the Celtics were short-handed in that spot as well (no Jaylen Brown or Marcus Morris). The Mavs are one of the worst offensive teams in the league as they rank 26th in efficiency and points per game.

The Bucks' record since the Eric Bledsoe trade is 9-4 SU, so maybe better things are on the horizon and they can ascend up the Eastern Conference ladder. Against the Pistons, a poor third quarter virtually "un-did" a very good 1st half, but a fourth quarter run was able to seal the game. This is not a deep team, but the bench did show up against the Pistons. Of course, a deep bench is not necessarily needed when you have MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is averaging 32.7 PPG (on 54.5% shooting!) so far in December. I haven't even mentioned yet that this is a big-time revenge spot for Milwaukee as they were embarrassed down in Dallas last month, losing 111-79! They were actually six-point road favorites in that contest, making tonight's spread seem like an absolute steal by comparison. Jump on the home team! 10* Milwaukee

10* Arizona State (8:00 ET): There are only eight teams still w/o a loss this College Basketball season and one of the less heralded unbeatens is 7-0 Arizona State, who hosts St. John's tonight. While earlier in the week we successfully targeted a pair of (now former) unbeatens - Virginia and Nevada - I'm taking a different tact here. Certainly, the Sun Devils are going to lose sooner than later. But St. John's comes into Los Angeles tonight (this is a neutral site game) sans its second leading scorer, Marcus LoVett, who averaged a healthy 14.9 PPG. The Red Storm are a somewhat fraudulent 8-1 SU as they've yet to play a "true" road game and their only tough game (vs. Missouri) not coincidentally resulted in their only defeat. 

Arizona State is not only perfect straight up, they are also virtually perfect against the spread. They 'pushed' back in the season opener, which was a 20-pt win over Idaho State. Since then, it's been six consecutive wins and covers w/ all but one SU victory (Kansas State) coming by double digits. And certainly there is no shame in beating Kansas State by only a bucket as that's the Wildcats' only defeat all season and the game was played in Las Vegas. The Sun Devils were even able to overcome KSU shooting 57% from the floor in that game. And then, they went on to beat a very good Xavier team, 102-86, in the Championship Game of the Las Vegas Tournament. Is ASU really the 16th best team (current AP ranking) in America? Probably not, but they've already beaten two teams that are far better than St. John's. 

As alluded to earlier, the Red Storm being short-handed here is the other key factor as is the fact they are making a cross-country trip while it's a relatively short "jaunt" for ASU. St. John's is very good defensively, but they struggle to shoot the ball (42.4 FG%) and that will become a bigger issue if LoVett does not play. This is a major step up from the last game where Chris Mullin's team faced Grand Canyon (on Tuesday). ASU (coached by Bobby Hurley) has been off since Saturday and shoots a far higher percentage from the field (53.1%!) than does SJU. In fact, their last game was the 1st time all season that the Sun Devils failed to shoot better than 50% from the floor or score at least 90 pts. Too much offense here. 10* Arizona State 

10* Over Thunder/Nets (10:05 ET): If you're wondering why it's such a late start time between these teams, take note that the game is NOT taking place in Brooklyn, but rather Mexico City. This neutral site affair might seem like a difficult matchup to handicap, but to me the most likely scenario is that each team "forgets to pack" its defense. For the Nets, they may not even have much to pack in the way of defense. Playing at one of the fastest tempos in the entire league, they already give up an average of 112.3 points per game, an Eastern Conference high (only the Suns allow more). OKC may rank near the top of the league in defensive efficiency, but late in games, they struggle at that end of the floor. Take the Over.

We may look back at Tuesday as a "turning point" for the Thunder's season. This team's record ought to be a lot better given that they've outscored the opposition this season by roughly three points per game. But they've been undermined by a failure to close out close games. They are tied w/ Washington for the most losses in the league by three points or less (4), however, they did come from behind to defeat Utah (100-94) on Tuesday. Granted, it was still their sixth consecutive ATS loss (1-8 L9), but they were able to rally back from a 17-point 2nd half deficit. There's been much hand wringing over Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony and Paul George all seeing their individual scoring decrease, but to me, that was to be expected. I don't see them having much trouble scoring in this game, that's for sure. 

Brooklyn can take advantage of the fact that the Thunder has allowed an average of 48.7% shooting its L5 games here. Given the added number of possessions that tend to take place in their games, that means more points than usual for an OKC opponent. The Nets come in off a 20-pt win over lowly Atlanta, who they held to 90 pts on 36.6% shooting. I looked it up and at no point this season have the Nets held B2B opponents below 100 points. In fact, it was just the 4th time all year holding an opponent under triple digits. The three previous instances have all seen them come back and allow a minimum of 112 PPG the next time out. In an unfamiliar environment, I expect little defense from either side. 10* Over Thunder/Nets

10* Northern Iowa (8:00 ET): Two typically strong mid-major programs square off tonight in Cedar Falls w/ N Iowa hosting TX-Arlington. The host Panthers, despite struggling last season, figure to be one of the big beneficiaries of Wichita State leaving the Missouri Valley for greener pastures. TX-Arlington is the favorite to win the Sun Belt. Last year, the Mavericks upset both St. Mary's and Texas in non-conf play, but ultimately fell short of their goal of making the NCAA Tournament (did win conf tourney). Both programs are off to strong starts this season w/ UT-Arlington at 7-1 and Northern Iowa at 6-2. But it's the latter's defense and homecourt advantage that should prove to be the difference-makers in this one. 

UT-Arlington has lost just the one time (by a single point at Alabama!), but they've also been involved in a number of close games. They have three wins by exactly five points so far, including the last one, which came at home against North Texas as a 16-pt favorite. Of note is that in the last two games, the Mavericks have scored their fewest number of points in a game this season. That benchmark will again be tested tonight when they face a N Iowa team permitting only 58.5 PPG overall and just 50.0 here in Cedar Falls. Only North Carolina in the season opener has topped 68 against the Panthers. This game will arguably be decided by which team defends the three-point line better. I believe that will be the home team.

Northern Iowa's only two losses this year have been to North Carolina and Villanova. That's some pretty exclusive company. They're off an extended break here, having not played since last Wednesday when they downed UNLV 77-68 (in overtime) as a one-point favorite on this floor. Perhaps RPI is an outdated metric, but it's worth noting it currently has Northern Iowa at #26 in the nation! The Panthers rank fifth nationally in scoring defense. The fact they were able to still beat UNLV, despite shooting a woeful 2 of 14 from three-point range is actually a mark in their favor. Bennett Koch led the way w/ a career-high 30 points and Tywhon Pickford is #12 in the nation in rebounding. This is a good team, that's rested and playing at home. The situation favors them. 10* Northern Iowa

10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): Coming into the season, the Bucks were thought to be a much safer "bet" than the Pistons to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. However, at least so far, Detroit has been the better of the two squads. They've opened up at 14-9 SU w/ wins over both Golden State and Boston (both on the road!). Milwaukee, meanwhile, stands at a somewhat disappointing 12-10 SU following its loss to the Celtics on Monday. But, since the Eric Bledsoe trade, things have gotten significantly better w/ the Bucks winning 8 of 12 overall. They haven't gotten to play many home games lately, so this is one they need to "make count" as it comes against a team they are not too far behind in the standings. Lay the small number.

These Central Division rivals have already split a pair of early season meetings w/ each winning on its home floor. Both games took place in early November and it was a bad shooting night (35.3%) that cost the Pistons in a 99-95 loss the last time they came calling here. Interestingly enough, the Bucks were larger favorites for that game, so there's been an adjustment by the oddsmakers. While "time will tell," I still view Milwaukee as more likely to finish higher in the standings, so there's some value on them here, I suppose. I won w/ the Over in their last game (at Boston) where Giannis Antekounmpo's 40 points were not enough in a 111-100 loss. The problem was they allowed the Celtics to shoot 55% from the floor. Thankfully, the Pistons are nowhere near that prolific and average only 101.8 PPG on the road. 

Offensively, the Bucks have scored at least 100 pts in six consecutive games, averaging 107.5 PPG during that stretch. Detroit comes in off a tough 96-93 loss at San Antonio where they wilted late (scored only 40 pts in 2H). It was their third loss in a row as tonight marks the final chance to avoid a winless road trip. The last two games were both close, but note they did trail Philly big on Saturday before a late rally fell short. While the Pistons have been strong as underdogs so far this season (8-3 ATS), the number here is just too short to help them much and I don't see the Bucks losing. 10* Milwaukee

10* Harvard (7:00 ET): The Crimson were expected to be a contender in the Ivy League this season w/ LY's champ Princeton not expected to be as strong. But it's been a rocky start to the season. Granted, you can put blame on the fact they haven't played a home game since November 12th. (Tonight marks their eighth consecutive game away from home). But the Crimson have been favored three times in their last six outings and lost all of them. At least the majority of the games, save for ones at St. Mary's and Northeastern, were close. In fact, all but two Harvard games this season have been decided by single digits, four of them by six points or less. Tonight, it's "their turn" to win a close one. 

Fordham comes in w/ a 3-4 SU record despite not having played any "true" road games. They did go down to Jamaica for two games and were handled in both, including a 24-point loss to Florida State. As is the case w/ Harvard, the vast majority of the Rams' games this year have been tight ones. However, losing to East Tenn State at home was not a "great look" nor was beating Maine by only one there on Saturday. In fact, they needed OT to get by the Black Bears on what was a terrible shooting night for both teams. This is not a deep Fordham team and two players remain questionable for undisclosed reasons (Bunting, Ohams). I should also mention that Fordham has won only once in its last six tries as a home dog of three points or less.

These teams met last year w/ Harvard winning by 12 (64-52) on its home floor. Fordham fell victim to dreadful shooting again, as in a 33.3 FG% overall, which included 5 of 19 from three-point range. It should be noted that Harvard has taken on a far more challenging schedule thus far, including a game at Kentucky their last time out (only lost by 9, despite shooting 37.1%). They've yet to really have a great shooting night this season, but thankfully Fordham (40.7% overall) has been even colder. Harvard did make 12 three-pointers against Kentucky. 10* Harvard 

10* Portland (10:05 ET): The Blazers are catching the Wizards in the second night of B2B road games and that's an ideal time to strike considering just how awful the Wiz looked last night in Utah (lost 116-69!) and the fact they are still w/o John Wall. So what, on paper, could have very well been an "even" matchup is now anything but w/ Portland having had the last two days off to stew over a home loss to New Orleans. That actually made it B2B home loss for the Blazers, who also fell here to Milwaukee, 103-91, back on November 30th. I can't see them losing another; not w/ how wounded the opponent is here and given the situation. Lay the points.

Washington has not shot well recently as they are making only 41.6% of all field goal attempts the L5 games. Quite frankly, they haven't shot the ball very well away from home all year (43.4%) and that means trouble against Portland team that holds its opponents to 43.9% shooting and is #4 in defensive efficiency. There's no two ways around it; last night was a complete disaster for the Wizards as they shot just 28.7% from the field while allowing the Jazz to shoot 56.8%. That's one of the biggest FG% discrepancies I have ever seen in a single game. It was the fewest points scored by any team in a game this season and the Wiz have now lost six of their last nine overall.

This will be the 2nd time Portland has gotten to face Washington w/o Wall as they were actually the 1st opponent after the All-Star suffered his knee injury. The Blazers won by three out in D.C., which was the 2nd of B2B road games for them and near the end of a long East Coast trip. The spot is far more desirable this time around and the team will come in highly motivated after losing B2B games outright as home favorites. 10* Portland 

10* Texas Tech (8:00 ET): There are 13 remaining unbeatens in College Basketball, so now seems like as good a time as any to start "picking them off." One of the LEAST heralded from the "lucky 13" is Nevada, who not only brings a perfect 8-0 SU record to the table, but is also 7-0-1 ATS. That push came last time out in an 11-pt win at UC Irvine. Credit the Wolfpack for playing a decent number of "true" road games to this point (this will be #5), but this marks their furthest trip East to date and it's the second in four days. Nevada may be the team that's ranked in the latest AP poll (#22), but Texas Tech is higher in virtually every reasonable power rankings system and is the deserved favorite here. They hand Nevada it's first loss tonight! 

Texas Tech is off its first loss, which took place Thursday against Seton Hall, who is also ranked. That game was played in Madison Square Garden and the Red Raiders (who in the interest of full disclosure, I was ON) blew a three-point halftime lead, eventually losing by 10. What was most disconcerting was the defense. Tech came into the game ranked 5th nationally in scoring defense (55.3 PPG) and 2nd in FG% allowed (33.5%). But they allowed Seton Hall to shoot better than 50% from the floor, including 11 of 22 from three-point range. The Pirates accounted for the two highest scoring halves of basketball against the Red Raiders this season.

I don't see a repeat of that from Nevada. Yes, the Wolfpack come in averaging a healthy 85 PPG. But now it's time for their scoring average to take a tumble as this will - easily - be their toughest test to date. Texas Tech is a deep team; 10 players average 10 minutes or more and at least 4.9 points per game. They are led by Keenan Evans' 15.9 PPG. Again, I point to the defense as Nevada isn't Seton Hall and back at home, the Red Raiders should reassert their dominance at that end of the floor. In terms of the situation, it clearly favors Texas Tech, who was off this weekend, while Nevada is playing the second of B2B road games. 10* Texas Tech

8* West Virginia (7:00 ET): For the third straight year, these schools are renewing acquaintances and both come in ranked in the Top 20. Virginia, at #15, is one of the 13 remaining schools nationally w/o a loss. WVU, who checks in at #20 in the latest poll, lost it's first game by 23 to Texas A&M. But the Mountaineers haven't lost since and for the 1st time in the three-year span, get to host the Hoos. They're hoping for a repeat of LY when they pulled the upset in Charlottesville, 66-57 as eight-point dogs. They wound up making a run to the Sweet 16 before being ousted by eventual runner-up Gonzaga. Virginia, who two years ago made the Elite 8, was eliminated in the 2nd round by Florida.

Virginia has played one "true" road game thus far, but it was in-state against Va Commonwealth. They did win and cover, 76-67 as 6.5-pt chalk, but keep in mind the Rams were early on under the direction of a 1st year HC. This will clearly be the Hoos' biggest challenge to date against a fast-paced opponent that forces 22 turnovers per game. Virginia, who has held every opponent but Va Commonwealth to below 55 pts, plays at a very deliberate pace. So the outcome here will largely depend on tempo. Again, the Cavaliers handled Va Commonwealth's pressure well, but WVU is a different animal in Morgantown where they're winning by an average of basically 40 points per game! 

It was an ugly opener against A&M, but since then Bob Huggins' team hasn't looked back, scoring 83 or more in every game during a seven-game win streak. They topped 100 last time out against overmatched NJIT. Virginia has covered all but one of its games, but this is a short number they're taking against an opponent that's won 33 of its past 37 home games. I see Virginia falling for the first time here as everyone's going to lose eventually and now is the Hoos' time. 8* West Virginia

8* San Antonio (8:35 ET): Playing severely short-handed, the Spurs very nearly knocked off the Thunder last night, losing by only three and easily covering as 8.5-point dogs. They went into the game w/o Tony Parker, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay, Manu Ginobili (rest) and of course Kwahi Leonard (who has yet to play this season) and then lost Kyle Anderson to what is believed to be a MCL injury. Good thing they still have the best coach in the game. Greg Popovich is no dummy and while he essentially conceded victory on Sunday, he'll have a much stronger unit on the court Monday night at home. Note that Popovich also rested Pau Gasol for the entire second half last night. All the players, with the exceptions of Leonard and Anderson, are expected back tonight. That makes this spread, at home, seem way too low. Lay it!

Detroit is 0-2 on it current road swing w/ losses to Washington and Philadelphia. They trailed the 76ers by as many as 18 in the second half before a late rally started making Philly backers nervous. The Pistons are an impressive 7-1 SU/6-1-1 ATS vs. the Western Conference so far this season, including a win over Golden State! They've also beaten Boston. But the Spurs are a team that has given them fits through the years, especially here in San Antonio where the Pistons have won just 12 times in the last 43 years. The Spurs have swept the season series each of the last two seasons, including two double digit victories last year. Note that the Pistons lost Saturday night despite the 76ers shooting the ball at only a 40% clip. 

The Spurs still play outstanding defense and rebound no matter who is on the court, so they are a team that must be respected. They have actually inched slightly ahead of Boston for fewest points per game allowed in the league, though they remain slightly behind them in defensive efficiency. Based on how he coached last night, Popovich clearly was more concerned about this game and I'll put faith in that plan. With the top players returning, we should see a dramatic increase in production at the offensive end tonight as there's no way they'll shoot 40% for a second straight game. 8* San Antonio

10* Indiana (8:00 ET): Is it really time for conference play to begin? The Big 10 got an early jump with conference games starting over the weekend and has three more games on tonight's schedule, including this one in Bloomington where mediocre Indiana hosts mediocre Iowa. Both squads enter at 4-4 SU having dropped their respective Big 10 openers. For Indiana, they were in a terrible spot (coming off the Duke game) and lost at Michigan 69-55 (as 7.5-point dogs). Iowa lost at home, by four, to Penn State. Overall, the Hawkeyes have now dropped four of five including losses as favorites to LA Lafayette and South Dakota State. That makes it pretty tough to like their chances tonight in Assembly Hall where the Hoosiers are looking to snap their own two-game losing streak. Lay the short number.

Indiana drew the "short straw" in the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge having to play #1 Duke. Sharp action might have been on them, but IU failed to cover the closing number (+9), losing 91-81. The Hoosiers played the Blue Devils tough as there were 11 ties and 10 lead changes in the first half alone. But a 17-4 Duke run in the 2H sealed the game. It certainly didn't help that the Hoosiers shot only 16 of 26 from the FT line and 5 of 21 from three-point range. But then, Archie Miller's team saw its streak of three consecutive games w/ 80+ points end Saturday in Ann Arbor as they shot just 40% from the field and fell into an early hold too deep to climb out of. Oddly, IU attempted only ONE three-pointer in the entire 1H. Bottom line is that I expect them to shoot much better at home.

Iowa is in far more "dire straits" than Indiana right now though. For the first time since '01, they lost at Carver-Hawkeye to Penn State, 77-73 on Saturday. Maybe, we shouldn't be all that surprised, however. The Hawkeyes were four-point underdogs in the game and as noted above, lost to both LA Lafayette and South Dakota State already. Their first "true" road game was a complete disaster as they were blown out by 24 at Virginia Tech. Still though, Iowa never led against Penn State and turned the ball over 18 times. Not good signs for this game. Nor is the fact they made only four three-pointers in their loss to the Nittany Lions. I think the three-point line will be the difference again in this one and w/ Iowa giving up over 80 PPG its last five contests, Indiana's offense gets back on track. 10* Indiana

10* Over Bucks/Celtics (7:35 ET): These two teams were both expected to be near the top of the Eastern Conference this season, but while the Celtics have exceeded expectations thus far, the Bucks have clearly fallen below them. That being said, Milwaukee does come into this game riding a three-game win streak. However, be aware that two of those victories came at Sacramento's expense. Boston, who has the distinction of owning both the league's top SU and ATS mark (at 20-4, 18-5-1 respectively) has won its last two games and punched a ticket for me (Over) in their last game, a 116-111 win over Phoenix. That's the way I'm going here as well. Take the Over. 

Though they continue to lead the league in defense (both points allowed and efficiency), the Celtics have seen their offense come alive in recent weeks. They've averaged an impressive 111.6 points over their last five games, scoring at least 108 in every game. For that Phoenix game, I spoke of how the Suns' fast tempo was likely to create an environment conducive for an Over. That's exactly how things played out w/ the Suns attempting roughly 17 more shots than the Celtics' typically face per game. Milwaukee's pace is far more deliberate, but it also helps that Boston is shooting the ball lights out recently w/ four straight games above 50% from the field. Bottom line is I expect a much more high scoring affair than we saw the last time these teams met, where the result was a 96-89 Boston win last month in Milwaukee. 

Interestingly, Bucks' road games are typically far more high scoring than their home games. We see an average of 212.3 points total scored in their road games, compared to just 201.4 at home. Like Boston, they've seen a fairly substantial increase in scoring recently as they've averaged 109 pts over the L5 games while shooting the ball at a 50.1% clip. Four of those last five games have gone Over the total. Meanwhile, seven of the Celtics' last eight games have gone Over. The Bucks are 8-3 SU since acquiring PG Eric Bledsoe, making them a much different team now than they were last month when they faced Boston twice. I already mentioned that the last meeting was low-scoring, but the first matchup (here in Boston) was a 108-100 final, actually won by the Bucks, as they drew the C's one-night removed from the Gordon Hayward injury and a tough loss in Cleveland. (Boston is 20-2 SU since that game!). This is a low total for a game between two teams that have both been shooting the ball well recently. 10* Over Bucks/Celtics

10* Over Clippers/T'wolves (7:05 ET): The immediate future of these two franchises are very different. The Clippers, perennial playoff participants the last several years, are sinking fast thanks to a multitude of injuries, not to mention Chris Paul's departure in the offseason. One would hope that Saturday represents "rock bottom" as the team fell - by 26 points - to the lowly Mavericks. Were it not for a 4-0 SU start, things would be even bleaker as the Clips have dropped 13 of 17 overall. Tonight, they face a Minnesota team that's on an upward trajectory in the front end of a "home and home." The T'wolves' numbers aren't all that impressive, but the key is they've been far "luckier" in close games, which is the reason for the improvement in the won-loss record. I'm looking for a high-scoring game on Sunday between these two.

It should be noted that the Clippers have just three wins (came in all in a row) in their last 14 games overall and they came at the expense of the Hawks, Kings and Lakers and two of those were by three points or less. Since then, they've been blowout twice, first by Utah (by 19 at home) and then yday in Dallas. Saturday saw them shoot a woeful 34.7% overall from the field, a percentage which almost HAS to increase tonight. Note that, for the most part, this team has shot well recently as they're still at 48.1% overall the L5 games, even including yday. The only other time they were held below 85 pts this year, they came back to score 116 the following game. The Over is also 4-0 the L3 seasons when the Clips are a road underdog of 12.5 points or more. 

Minnesota is off a loss too; though theirs was far more excusable as it came at OKC, 111-107 as five-point underdogs. That was after they dropped 120 in an impressive road win over the Pelicans. So it's been back to back Overs for the T'wolves, who are also getting healthier w/ PG Jeff Teague now back in the lineup. If there is one issue w/ Minnesota, and this is uncharactertistic of a Tom Thibodeau coached team, it's that they're still not very good defensively. They give up over 107 points per game and rank 23rd in efficiency. Fortunately for them though, they're facing an opponent that's giving up 109.4 PPG its last five. Like I said, expect a good old fashioned shootout in this one. 10* Over Clippers/T'wolves

10* Central Florida (2:00 ET): Saturday marked a bit of a bittersweet day on the campus of UCF. While the football team completed an unbeaten regular season (will go to Peach Bowl) w/ a thrilling, double OT win over Memphis, at the same time it was announced that HC Scott Frost will be departing for Nebraska (not a shock). The basketball program has far less fanfare in Orlando, but Sunday will do something that the football program would love to do and that's play Alabama. You have to wonder what the pointspread would be on the football field (my guess is it would be a little higher) if these two schools met. I'm not sure what I'd do in that hypothetical matchup, but here on the basketball court Sunday, I'll be taking the points. 

Now the Golden Knights arrive in Tuscaloosa (first "true" road game) on a three-game losing streak and in two of the losses they were held below 50 points. But at the same time, two of the losses were by three points and the competition was pretty fierce. They played West Virginia, St. John's and Missouri, all of whom rank in my top 50. The one blowout was at the hands of West Virginia, part of the Advocare Invitational (in Lake Buena Vista), the best of the lost and in that game UCF simply could not make a shot as they finished at 24.5% overall including just 1 of 12 from three-point range. Suffice to say, they probably won't have another shooting night that bad the rest of the season. Now, defensively, there are no issues here as the Golden Knights are holding their opponents to just 37.8% shooting for the year. Taking this many points, that's huge. 

Alabama has just the one loss, the now-infamous game vs. Minnesota where they were down to three players and still only lost by five. They bounced back Wednesday w/ a win over Louisiana Tech, but only by three as 11.5-pt favorites.  The big key here is that the Crimson Tide, a guard-oriented team, is going to have trouble stopping UCF's 7'6" monster Tacko Fall, who so far is averaging 11 points and 7 rebounds per game. Purportedly, the Tide will counter w/ Daniel Giddens, who normally does not see much playing time (only averages 2.4 pts, 2.0 rebounds in 11 minutes per game). Note that the Tide had to overcome a double digit deficit in the 2nd half just to beat La Tech earlier this week as they trailed by 11 w/ 14 minutes left. UCF is a desperate team w/ size and will be a very "tough out" Sunday afternoon. 10* Central Florida

10* Kansas (5:30 ET): It's still (very) early in the season, but for my money, Kansas is the #1 team in the country. Currently, they are ranked #2, so the pollsters aren't too far off. However, I can't say the same for the oddsmakers in the spot as they have the Jayhawks favored by NOT nearly enough in a matchup w/ Syracuse down in Miami, a battle of 6-0 teams. However, as we know, "not all unbeatens are created equal" and in this instance we have an underdog that hasn't really played anybody or even had to leave the Carrier Dome (this early season philosophy has long been a hallmark under Jim Boeheim). I do NOT anticipate a repeat of the '03 NCAA Championship Game when a Carmello Anthony-led Syracuse team beat Kansas. Lay the points in this spot. 

Kansas' schedule hasn't exactly been a "murderer's row," but they did leave Lawrence once to beat Kentucky (Champions Classic) in the second game of the year. There were some struggles offensively in that game (only scored 65 pts) and perhaps there is some concern here going against Syracuse's trademark zone defense. But the Jayhawks are simply too talented. Thanks to averaging 94.5 PPG overall, they own the nation's top scoring differential at +33.0 PPG. All five starters are currently averaging at least 13.5 PPG. Last time out, they blitzed Toledo w/ a 30-2 run in the first half, shooting 75% from the floor en route to a 96-58 win and cover. Other than Kentucky, no opponent has even come within 34 points of the Jayhawks this season. Yes, those opponents haven't been great, but destroying them in the fashion they have is a mark in Kansas' favor.

A key in this game will be three-point shooting. KU is making an astounding 45.2% of its shots from behind the arc while Syracuse is at a paltry 29.1%. Compounding this issue is the way each team defends the arc. Kansas' opponents are making just 30.3% of their 3-pt attempts while Syracuse opponents are making 34% of theirs. While Jayhawks' HC Bill Self is on the record as saying "any" of his five starters are capable of scoring 20+ (pts) on a given night, Boeheim has lamented his offense by saying "we need to start making some shots." What's been key for the Orange thus far is a massive edge in second-chance points, but that likely will not exist here against a bigger, longer opponent and given the disparity in three-point shooting, I just don't see any way Syracuse keeps this game close. 10* Kansas

8* Over Suns/Celtics (1:05 ET): We know that Boston is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and allows a league-low 96.8 PPG. But they should certainly "get theirs" here in a matchup w/ a team that allows the MOST points per game in the league (115.8), Phoenix. With the Suns also playing at the fastest tempo in the league, there should be no shortage of possessions in this game, lending itself to an Over. The Celtics have scored at least 108 pts in six of their last seven games and a six-game Over streak was snapped their last time out. Meanwhile, Phoenix is an incredible 20-3 Over the L3 seasons when playing w/ exactly two days rest, which they are here. That includes a perfect 4-0 mark this season. Take the Over.

The Suns are 6-2 Over their last eight games overall and just gave up 131 pts in their last game, to Detroit. They let the Pistons shoot a blistering 57.3% from the floor and trailed by as many as 36. The Pistons shot better than 62% in the 1H and had a 36-point 1st quarter. Again, none of this should come as much of a surprise as no team in the league is giving up more points per game or possession. This is their fourth road game in six nights and only twice in the last eight games have they given up fewer than 113 points. The two they did not both came against Chicago, the worst offensive team in the league. Games against the Eastern Conference are averaging over 225 PPG and that average would be even higher if you exclude the Bulls.

The Celtics are shooting at only 43.9% from the floor at home, a percentage that almost HAS to go up. Sure enough, over the last five games, the team is at 49.1% overall. They've been at 50% or better three straight games, the last two at home, scoring exactly 108 pts on all three occasions. Kyrie Irving has gone for 30+ points four times in the last five games, including a game-high 36 in a win over the 76ers Wednesday. More often that not, the Suns do top 100 points, largely due to the pace at which they play. This will be a higher scoring game than usual for Boston. 8* Over Suns/Celtics

10* Toronto (7:35 ET): The Raptors may never make a NBA Finals, but as per usual, they're being undervalued in the regular season. Right now, it is they (not Boston) that can claim to have the top net efficiency rating at +7.7 per 100 possessions (Boston +6.4) in the Eastern Conference. They can also claim a better traditional (read: actual) scoring differential than the Celtics YTD. They may not have the win streaks of the Celtics (or Cavs), but this remains a top tier team in the East. Tonight, they host an Indiana team that has surprised in the early going by posting a winning record (12-10 SU) and hanging around in the top eight of the Conference. But I don't buy the Pacers as being able to even maintain their current level of production and will fade them here.

Sure enough, the Pacers are off a 21-point loss in Houston Wednesday night. This is a fairly odd two-game road trip of Houston & Toronto. Now before getting blown out by the Rockets, Indiana was on a 5-1 SU/ATS run w/ the lone loss coming to Boston. They are also 5-1 ATS coming off a double-digit loss this season. But the fact they've been blown out so many times already (seven double-digit losses) doesn't really bode well for their future. Nor does the number of points they're allowing per game, which is currently 107.8. Over the L4 games, that number has grown to almost 110 PPG. Traditionally, the Pacers have NOT played well "North of the Border" as they are just 14-28 ATS their L42 visits to Toronto. The fact they attempted only SIX free throws in the game against Houston demonstrates an inability/unwillingness to get to the basket. 

This is a revenge game for the Raptors as well. Exactly one week ago, they blew a double-digit lead in the second half and lost 107-104. That was in Indiana though. Considering the Raptors were two-point favorites in that game, it certainly would appear there's some value on them here in this rematch. The third quarter has been an issue lately as they've blown double digit leads in three of the last four games. But Wednesday against Charlotte, they were able to bounce back in the 4Q for a comfortable 126-113 win. The good news is that this game is at home where the Raptors average an impressive 114.0 PPG. If Indiana could simply "outscore" Toronto in this situation, I'd give them more of a chance, but the bottom line is the Raptors are third in offensive efficiency while the Pacers are sixth. Plus, the Pacers were just 7 of 28 from three-point range on Wednesday. 10* Toronto

8* Manhattan (11:30 AM ET): It's a very early start time over in Belfast, Northern Ireland (!) and neither of these two teams are playing well. Holy Cross has lost three straight, all by double digits, while Manhattan has done the Crusaders "one worse" by losing its last four. However, two of those defeats came by four points or less and in Sunday's loss to Fordham, they turned the ball over 25 times, which doesn't seem "repeatable."  Defensively, HC is a mess as they've allowed three straight opponents to shoot better than 53% from the floor and in their last game, the opponent (Albany) had 10 more FG attempts, which is how the final score got so lopsided. I look for Manhattan to have its best offensive game of the season (to date) and get the win/cover. 

Holy Cross shot the ball pretty well last Saturday against Albany (home game), finishing at 50%. They also had three double digits scorers. However, as I mentioned above, the problem was not only that they allowed the Great Danes to shoot 53.4%, but they also had 10 more attempts. Not surprisingly then, we find that HC was dominated on boards, getting outrebounded 32-23. The three-point line was another factor as Albany shot 47.6% from behind the arc and HC was at only 27.8%. Defense has been an issue for the Crusaders as they are giving up an average of 77.2 points per game.  They have also been outrebounded in EVERY game so far.

Ironically, both of these teams started their respective seasons 2-0, which included wins over Harvard by an identical final score of 73-69! Both beat the Crimson on their home floors. In both cases, our two teams here jumped out to a double digit lead and had to hold on. As I said earlier, in their last game, Manhattan turned the ball over 25 times and as a result fell to Fordham by a final score of 70-57 as 4.5-pt underdogs. If the Jaspers turn the ball over that many times again, clearly, they're going to lose. But, fortunately, TO's really hadn't been a problem in any of the first five games. Again, HC has been blown out in three straight games. This is their first lined affair, but I reckon that had the oddsmakers hung a number on any of their previous three games, they'd been 0-3 ATS.  The travel isn't an advantage for either side, but I simply believe Manhattan to be the better team. 8* Manhattan

10* Under Bulls/Nuggets (9:05 ET): Denver is off a horrific showing Tuesday night Utah where they managed only 77 points in a 30-point loss to the short-handed Jazz. Speaking of "horrific showings," I present to you the 2017-18 Chicago Bulls. This team is atrocious and should be considered to be the worst in the league right now. Now, we knew the Bulls would be bad coming into the season, but they are currently "exceeding expectations" as they're being outscored by a mind-numbing 14 points per 100 possessions. They are the worst offensive team in the league (94.6 PPG) and I see little reason to "believe in them" here as they've shot only 37.7% from the field in the last two games while averaging 92.0 PPG. Take the Under. 

Coming off a terrible loss, the Nuggets should bounce back tonight, but to what degree? It's true that their scoring average does rise to 112.1 PPG here at home. But they'll be the ones doing all the "heavy lifting" here for Over bettors. If this game gets out of hand, which it very well may do, then I can see a low-scoring fourth quarter. Sure enough, Denver has a 7-3 Under record this season when facing a team w/ a losing record. Three times in the last five games, they've shot below 43% from the field, "bottoming out" w/ Tuesday's performance when they were at just 35.9%. 

Perhaps is that they are w/o Paul Milsap. I still think the Nuggets have the depth to overcome that injury, but the bottom line is that they haven't topped 104 pts in any of their last three games. Against Utah, they scored only 28 points after halftime! Chicago, however, has only topped 94 twice in its past 10 games! Additionally, they've been below 42% in six consecutive contests. Maybe Denver gets a slight offensive "bump" from returning home, but it won't be enough to help this one get Over the total as the Bulls are simply too offensively inept. In their three games vs. Northwest Division teams so far, Chicago has averaged a miserable 76.0 PPG. 10* Under Bulls/Nuggets

8* South Carolina (9:00 ET): Save for a loss to Illinois State in the relocated Puerto Rico Classic, Frank Martin's Gamecocks have played pretty well this season (5-1 SU), carrying over from LY's surprise Final Four run. Not many players returned from that group, but one that did - Chris Silva - led the way Monday night w/ a career-best 26 points and 10 rebounds in a 78-61 win over FIU, the team's first "true" roadie of this campaign. All four South Carolina victories this season have been by double-digits. That's what I'm looking for tonight as they play a neutral site game vs Temple tonight in Madison Square Garden, as part of the Under Armor Reunion Doubleheader. (First game is Seton Hall vs. Texas Tech).

Temple hasn't played as many games as USC (only 4) and comes in at 3-1 SU, impressive because they have yet to play an actual home game! They are, however, off their first loss, which came at LaSalle on Sunday. It was a particularly brutal setback for the Owls considering they led most of the way and even by double digits in the second half. But, over the final 10 minutes, they allowed LaSalle to score 29 points after allowing just 58 in the first 30. The key was a three-minute scoreless stretch, which allowed the Explorers to catch up. The Owls figure to struggle to score here against a South Carolina defense which is allowing only 39.5% shooting for the year, a hallmark under HC Martin.

It wasn't just Silva getting the job done for South Carolina against FIU; four players scored in double figures, including Frank Booker, who has been a solid addition via transfer. Booker (came from Florida Atlantic) leads the team in three-pointers made (17) and is shooting 40.5% from the arc. He is a senior. Both of these teams have fared remarkably well in neutral site affairs recently w/ USC at 11-3 ATS L14 and Temple doing them "one better" at 12-3 L15. So there's no real edge there. But how about the fact that MSG is where South Carolina won its Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Games in LY's stunning NCAA Tourney run? Perhaps that's an edge? The Gamecocks have not allowed more than 69 pts to any opponent this season. FIU shot just 4 of 17 from three-point range against them and USC had a major edge in rebounding while forcing 17 turnovers. They are the better team here. 8* South Carolina

10* Miami FL (9:15 ET): The Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge continues on Wednesday w/ the latter currently holding a commanding 6-1 advantage. (I cashed Florida St last night, albeit barely!). The Big 10's only win thus far came in perhaps the most marquee game to date, Purdue over Louisville, last night. It's also important to remember that Michigan State did just clobber North Carolina in a non-Challenge game on Sunday. That said, I'm sticking with the ACC today. It is interesting to note that in four of the six games scheduled for tonight, the Big 10 team is favored. One of those is Miami @ Minnesota, a matchup of two unbeaten teams ranked in the top 12. For Miami, this will be the first "real" test and their first "true" road game as well. Minnesota has won at Providence, but other than that, their schedule has been pretty soft too. I'm taking the points.

Given the level of competition, the "U's" scoring differential is probably what you'd expect. It's currently sitting at +25.8 points per game w/ all five wins coming by at least 11 points. Their latest, 86-65 over North Florida, came Saturday. Despite making only three three-pointers (on 15 attempts), the Hurricanes still manage to score 86 points, which is a pretty good sign. It was the the third time in four games scoring that many. I don't have much of an explanation for why they only scored 57 against LaSalle last week, but it should be noted that they did hold the Explorers w/o a single three-point FG in that game. Sophomore Bruce Brown may have "turned a corner" in the game vs. North Florida as he went for a team-high 14 pts. This is a very balanced team for HC Jim Larranaga and they have seven outright wins (in 16 overall tries) as an underdog the L3 seasons. 

There's only one Pitino left in the head coaching ranks and he is at Minnesota w/ Richard (Rick's son) leading the charge. The Golden Gophers are 7-0 SU and coming off wins over UMass and Alabama in the Barclays Center Classic over the weekend. While some may cite the stronger level of competition as a positive for Minnesota here, I think it could work against them as Miami has had less to deal with coming into tonight. Also, while they did dominate from start to finish against a ranked foe (Bama) on Saturday, note the Gophers only had to play against three players for a portion of the second half! Therefore, all of a sudden, a five-point win there doesn't look so impressive, does it? Minnesota has allowed 74 or more points four times already this season, which is a concern when laying points to an opponent as talented as Miami. 10* Miami FL

10* Over Thunder/Magic (7:05 ET): By most "traditional" measures (like won-loss record), OKC is having a very disappointing season. Despite adding a couple of All-Stars (Carmello Anthony, Paul George) to the roster in the offseason, the Thunder are just 8-11 straight up and outside the top eight in the Western Conference (currently 9th). However, this is still a good team that has played significantly better than its record. Don't believe me? Take, for instance, the fact that they've actually outscored the opposition or that they rank second in the league in defensive efficiency. It's been an inability to perform in the clutch that has cost them thus far. As a result, I'll shy away from them laying points on the road here. To the total we go though and I like the Over here.

Orlando got off to a surprisingly strong start this season, winning six of their first eight games. This is a franchise that has not made the playoff since Dwight Howard left town in 2012. So things were trending in a positive direction for the 1st time in a LONG time. But that hasn't lasted. The Magic have now dropped nine in a row and 11 of the last 13 games. Defense, rather lack of it, has been a major concern w/ the team allowing over 123 points per its last four games. In all but two games during the nine-game losing streak, they've allowed at least 110 pts to the opponent. So they're at the opposite end of the defensive spectrum compared to OKC. They rank 23rd in efficiency coming into tonight. 

The Thunder aren't exactly playing well now either as they have just one win in the last five games, ironically over Golden State. They just lost, outright, to Dallas as six-point favorites (97-81!) on Saturday. That followed another outright loss, this time to the Pistons, on Friday. I have to imagine this team will start to shoot better than its current clip of 43.9% moving forward. They shot just 36.2% from the floor against Dallas and that number almost certainly will be improved upon tonight, given the opponent they are facing. As for the Magic, they do shoot better than 38% from three-point range and have seen their last four games all go Over the total. They allowed both Philadelphia and Indiana (last 2 opponents) to both shoot better than 50% overall. OKC may be a perfect 7-0 Under vs. the Eastern Conference so far, but that trend comes to an end tonight! 10* Over Thunder/Magic

8* Denver (10:05 ET): These are two teams that figure to be fighting for the last couple of playoff spots in the Western Conference all season long. Right now, both are in the top eight w/ Denver slightly ahead at 11-8 SU (Utah 9-11). On the surface, this does NOT appear to be a great spot for the Nuggets, who are only 3-6 SU on the road (8-2 at home) and off a double-digit win (0-6 ATS in that role this season). But they are the better team here, in my opinion, and Utah is more likely to struggle moving forward w/o a key player (Rudy Gobert). The Jazz just aren't as strong (or deep) as they were last year, meaning injuries will be more difficult to overcome. Unlike Denver, who has the necessary depth to overcome Paul Milsap being out the next three months.

The Nuggets beat Memphis a lot worse than the final score of 104-92 showed on Friday night as they shot better than 50% from the floor and had a 2:1 edge in rebounds. Again, that tells me that they'll be just fine w/o Milsap. Part of that has to do w/ having Nikola Jokic on the roster. In the three games since Milsap went down, Jokic has averaged 20.3 points, 11.0 rebounds and 4.7 assists. He topped all of those averages against Memphis. Now, we know the Grizz are a downtrodden team right now, playing w/o its best player (PG Mike Conley). But guess what? Utah is not only now w/o Gobert, they're still trying to figure out how to replace the lost production from Gordon Hayward skipping town! 

I've been really impressed w/ how the Nuggets have dropped B2B games only one time all season. They've also been off since Friday, so they're well-rested. Utah is off a 121-108 win over Milwaukee on Saturday, their second straight w/o Gobert. But prior to that, they'd dropped 8 of 10. The Jazz's last four wins have all come at the expense of Eastern Conference foes and three of them were: Orlando, Brooklyn and Chicago. Defensively, the Jazz's numbers remain impressive (allow only 96.3 PPG), but that will be tested here by a Nuggets offense that comes in averaging 107.8 PPG. The gap here in offensive efficiency (in Denver's favor) exceeds the gap on the defensive end of the floor. The Nuggets are the better team here. 8* Denver

8* Florida State (7:00 ET): Of all the matchups in this year's Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge, this one probably ranks near the bottom for most in terms of interest. However, it should be pointed out that both of these teams are undefeated, Florida State at 5-0 and Rutgers at 6-0. However, in the case of both (particularly the latter), that's a byproduct of a weak schedule. Rutgers has not even yet had to leave campus (nor are they tonight) and their opposition thus far has been every bit as poor as it reads (NY City Tech, C Conn St, Cleveland St, Coppin St, Bryant and East Carolina). FSU at least "dared" to leave Tallahassee for a short bit, playing Fordham and Colorado State in Jamaica. The Seminoles have yet to win a game by fewer than 19 pts and thus I'll lay a short number w/ them here. 

The 'Noles last game was an easy 113-78 win over The Citadel on Friday. Now, we shouldn't get too excited about that point total as those familiar w/ the sport will tell you that many teams score 100+ against The Citadel. However, FSU did hold the Bulldogs to a season-low 33.3% shooting. That's notable b/c LY, The Citadel led the nation in scoring. So, it was actually the effort on the defensive end that was the greater achievement there. FSU is a deep team w/ plenty of length and size. Rutgers, like The Citadel, will struggle to score in this game. Mark my words.

Four of Rutgers' six games have not been lined, which should tell you about the level of competition right there. They've yet to play a team ranked higher than #245 in my own power rankings! Florida State comes in at #40 for me, so this will be quite the major step up in class for the Scarlet Knights. Yes, I'm conceding that the Seminoles haven't really played "anyone" either, but is there anyone willing to make the claim that Rutgers is the better team here? I certainly hope not. Even w/ the homecourt advantage, Rutgers won't be able to keep this one close as they're likely to be crushed on the interior by an opponent that is shooting almost 53% from the field, for the year. 8* Florida State

8* Brooklyn (8:05 ET): The Nets got me yday, taking advantage of a Mike Conley-less Grizzlies team that is REALLY struggling right now, and won outright 99-88 as 5.5-point pups. It was their fifth consecutive cover (2-3 straight up). But they're certainly not getting any respect here tonight as they are huge underdogs at red-hot Houston. For my money, the Rockets are the best team in the league not named "Golden State" as they even have a better WL record than the Dubs (one fewer loss) and are outscoring opponents by an average of 10 PPG. But this spread is too high. Take the points. 

The Nets used a 32-18 third quarter to take the advantage for good last night in what was pretty easily their finest defensive effort of the season to date. Now, they'll clearly be tested tonight and it's not a good sign that they are allowing the second most points in the league. However, the Nets are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season against teams averaging 106 or more points per game and 7-1 ATS vs. teams w/ a winning record. Last week, they covered against both Golden State and Cleveland (LY's two NBA Finalists), losing by 10 pts or less to both. They also played a very good Portland team tough on Saturday afternoon, losing by only two (127-125). The fast pace at which Brooklyn plays at might cost them tonight, but not to the degree the oddsmakers are calling for. 

For Houston, this will be the second game in a row that they are monster favorites. They couldn't cover a 19-point spread against the Knicks on Saturday, winning by "only" 15. Now they have won four straight by an average of 23.3 PPG. But eventually, those kind of margins can't be sustained. Case in point; the Rockets actually trailed the Knicks by as many as 22 points Saturday night! There was a 45-point swing that resulted in them leading by as many as 23 (crazy game!), but still, it's a dangerous way to play when you're "turning it on and off." Note the Knicks were w/o their two best players, Kristaps Porzingis and Enes Kanter, also. The Nets are 2-0 ATS this season when coming off a double digit win. 8* Brooklyn

8* Alabama State (7:00 ET): Normally, "best practice" when selecting an underdog, in any sport, is to have a belief that there's a chance they could take the game straight up. Clearly though, that is NOT the case here. But look at this pointspread for a minute. All we are asking for is a team NOT to lose by FORTY points! I think that's doable. And I say that as someone who has tremendous respect for the Cincinnati basketball team and thinks they should be ranked even higher than they currently are (#12/#13 in AP/Coaches). But coming off an impressive showing in the Cayman Islands, I look for the Bearcats to "look right past" this game as they have a huge date w/ city rival Xavier looming this weekend. Take the points. 

While Cincy is 6-0 SU (3-1 ATS), Alabama State finds itself on the opposite end of the spectrum at 0-6 SU (0-1 ATS). Yes, their one lined game saw them getting 35.5 pts and they failed to cover, losing 114-56 at Oregon. But, let's give the Hornets some credit for trying, shall we? With the exception of their last game, the Hornets have done nothing but play "true" road games. They were hardly competitive in any of them, but other than Oregon, they didn't lose any by more than 34 points. It's certainly a "low bar" we're setting for ASU here, but that's where the oddsmakers come in. Now, the Hornets did just lose last week (101-97) to a Savannah State team that Cincy beat by 30 points. But a 61-point second half there (!) should at least give them some hope for tonight. That was a neutral site affair, by the way, played in Chattanooga, TN. 

Not only does Cincy have Xavier looming, but they also have dates w/ Florida, Mississippi State and UCLA coming up as well. Simply put, this game is unlikely to hold the players' interest, even though they can easily win it w/o much effort. Only twice in the L20 seasons have the Bearcats been favored in a game by more than 30 points. Also, it should be mentioned that they are playing "home games" this season off-campus, at Northern Kentucky due to their own arena undergoing renovations. Maybe that matters some? Regardless, Alabama State should be way more up for this game than Cincinnati and should keep it within 40 points. 8* Alabama State

8* Texas A&M (10:00 ET): We've got a pair of unbeatens meeting Sunday night in Los Angeles w/ USC hosting Texas A&M. The visitors will have revenge on their mind for LY's 65-63 loss in College Station where they were six-point favorites. Both teams are ranked (USC #10 and A&M #16) in the latest AP Poll while the Aggies are a few spots lower (#19) according to the Coach's (who also have USC #10). However, I have A&M rated as the better team. Tip your cap to the job Andy Enfield is doing at Southern Cal, but I'm not sure we're not "putting the cart before the horse" when it comes to this season's presumed Pac 12 favorite (along w/ Arizona). I expect payback this year from the Aggies.

This will be Texas A&M's first "true" road game, but they have won at neutral sites over West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Penn State. Every win so far (5-0) has come by double digits, including two nights ago at home over lowly Pepperdine (81-65). That margin was actually not close to what the oddsmakers were calling for (-28), but I think that can be chalked up to looking ahead to this game."I thought our energy wasn't very good at times, but when we needed it we were able to raise it up a level at the end," Texas A&M coach Billy Kennedy said. "Winning two big games (in New York) and then coming home, we didn't play like a veteran team." It should be noted that A&M still played very good defense against the Waves, as they held them to just 38.7% shooting from the floor, including 4 of 19 from three-point range.

They'll need to bring that same defense here as USC comes in shooting at a torrid 46% from three-point range in the last two contests, wins over Vanderbilt and Lehigh. Needless to say, I think A&M is going to hold them in check as shooting at that kind of rate from distance is hard to sustain anyway. Last year, the Aggies held the Trojans to just 5 of 26 shooting from three-point range. The level of competition USC has faced thus far has not been all that challenging. The win over Vandy was a "true" road game, but came by only four points. Both times the Trojans have been a home fave of three points or less under Enfield, they've lost outright. A&M has already pulled one upset this year, beating West Virginia by 23 when they were seven-point dogs. In four of the five games so far, A&M has allowed 65 or fewer points. They are #9 in defensive efficiency according to the KenPom rankings. That will be the difference in this one. 8* Texas A&M

10* Memphis (6:05 ET): Things have unravelled in a hurry for the Grizzlies as they've lost seven straight, largely a result of losing PG Mike Conley to an achilles injury. Conley will be out for an indefinite period of time and that definitely makes it a rather "gloomy" outlook for the Grizz, who have not been able to top 94 pts in any of their last four games. This losing streak actually began when Conley was still in the lineup, but the decline in scoring came once he was injured. Help comes this evening though in the form of the Brooklyn Nets and their atrocious defense. The Nets are determined to play at a fast pace and the result of that has been them allowing an average of 114.9 points per game, second most in the league. It's telling that Memphis is still favored here.

Brooklyn has lost three straight and five of their last six. In each of the L3 games, they've given up at least 118 points and all of those games ended in regulation. Now, the competition has been fierce w/ them facing the Warriors, Cavs and Blazers. But the road has been unkind to this team as their record away from the Barclays Center is 2-7 straight up as they're shooting only 43.9% from the field in those games. The line here is notable due to the fact that - usually - you'll find the Nets as a much larger underdog. They're being outscored by seven points per game away from home, so this line looks like a bargain. 

I had the Under in Memphis' last game as they fell at Denver, 104-92. Prior to that, they'd lost four in a row here at home. They've actually lost six straight here at the FedEx Forum, their last win coming all the way back in late October over Houston! Because they haven't covered a single spread during their seven-game skid, there's going to be value on them in the short term. Again, it is telling that they'd still be favored here. Brooklyn has been covering in defeat (4-0 ATS L4), but twice was a double-digit dog in that span. 10* Memphis

10* Boston (7:05 ET): After having their 16-game win streak snapped Wednesday in Miami, the Celtics wasted little time in getting back into the win column as they routed Orlando last night by a score of 118-103, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. The game was a much bigger blowout than even that final indicates as Boston enjoyed a 30-point lead entering the 4th quarter. Tonight, they play another Eastern Conference foe off to a surprisingly good start, that being Indiana. The Pacers have found plenty of success at the betting window as well, covering five straight games and all of those have been SU wins as well. But, unlike in Beantown, I don't expect the winning to continue in the Hoosier State and once again the oddsmakers are undervaluing the Celtics. Lay the short number.

Under Brad Stevens, Boston has typically been a great ATS team when playing on the second night of a back to back. Ironically, despite all their success vs. the number, the team is 0-2 ATS in this spot this season. However, note the situations. The first time, they were caught having to go to Milwaukee, the game after losing Gordon Hayward for the season and losing a close one to rival Cleveland on Opening Night. The second time was a trip to Atlanta where they were laying a big number. It seems as if bettors are "wanting" to bet against Boston right now, something I get (they can't go on covering like this forever), but because of this mindset, I feel oddsmakers are offering some real "soft" lines that we can take advantage of. The Celtics remain #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and are allowing just 95.7 points per game. 

Indiana also played last night, here at home, and upset the Toronto Raptors as two-point home underdogs. Now don't you think the Celtics should be bigger favorites than the Raptors? Last night's Raptors-Pacers game certainly could have gone either way (Toronto actually led by 10 at halftime) and Indiana would not have won if not for the effort from Victor Oladipo, who had a team-high 21 points. Sadly, Oladipo left in the 4th quarter w/ a knee injury and is listed as questionable to play tonight. His absence would certainly make the Pacers job a lot tougher tonight. I just can't see Indiana beating Toronto and Boston on consecutive nights and note they are allowing 107.2 PPG this year, which is tied for fifth most in the Eastern Conference. This will already be the SIXTH time the Pacers have had to play on back to back nights this season! 10* Boston

10* Georgetown (6:00 ET): Little was expected from Patrick Ewing, perhaps the school's most famous alumnus, and Georgetown this year. But his Hoyas have started 3-0 SU w/ every win comig by at least 26 points! Now, the competition has hardly been "fierce," nor have they had to leave home. The latter changes this evening w/ a visit to Richmond, however, just like the Hoyas' previous three opponents, the Spiders should provide little resistance. They're 1-4 SU w/ three of those losses coming by double digits, two of them when favored. Consider they've already lost a game - by 33 (!) - Jacksonville State this year! Not to mention Delaware came here and won by 13. That's a pretty ominous sign for the season and I look for Ewing's chargers to remain unbeaten here. 

While Richmond is off a trip to the Cayman Islands (lost twice), Georgetown has been off for the last week. Last Saturday, the Hoyas beat MD-Eastern Shore 83-57. It was their third straight non-lined affair to start the season. Both Jessie Govan and Marcus Derrickson turned in double-doubles and Kaleb Johnson scored a career-high 24 points. The game was over by halftime as the Hoyas led 40-19 and they actually started the game w/ a 35-8 run! Now, we all figure that once Big East play gets underway, the Hoyas are going to struggle. But that's still a month away. Ewing is going to enjoy a grace period here no matter what (has never coached at any level), but he'd sure like to continue racking up the wins to earn further good will among the fan base. A (very) soft non-conference schedule should allow him to do so. 

Richmond did not do well in the Cayman Islands, meaning their backers won't be able to stash any money there. They first lost to to Cincinnati (no shame there) 75-48 as 16.5-pt dogs. Then came a loss to La Lafayette, 82-76 as seven-point dogs. That one was particularly painful as they actually led by as many as seven in the second half and by six w/ just seven minutes to go. Similar to G'town in the Big East, not much is expected from Richmond this year in the Atlantic 10. It's pretty telling that the Spiders are listed as underdogs here. They've covered only 9 of their previous 27 home games and outright losses to the likes of Delaware and Jacksonville State may mean things will get worse before they get any better. The Hoyas have covered 14 of teir last 18 when listed as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. 10* Georgetown

10* Under Grizzlies/Nuggets (9:05 ET): Memphis is in a really bad way right now as they're 0 for 6 - both SU and ATS - their last six games overall, the last four all coming w/o the services of PG Mike Conley, who is going to be out for an indefinite period of time. Denver, meanwhile, was blown out (by 30) in its last game (by Houston). So we have a pair of Western Conference teams "trying to pick up the pieces" here and the Nuggets have their own injury (Paul Milsap) that they're currently dealing with. (Although, they have the depth at the PF position to potentially overcome it). The Nuggets do average 113 points per game here at home, but that alone will NOT be enough to get this game Over the total. I'm on the Under here as the Grizzlies have not topped 94 pts in any of their three previous games.

In fact, I played against the Grizz Wednesday night, when they hosted lowly Dallas. I took the points and it turned out I didn't even need them as the Mavs won outright, 95-94 as six-point pups. It was a brutal loss as Harrison Barnes' banked in a 30-footer at the buzzer for the Dallas win. Initially, Memphis had led by as many as 18 in the 1H before getting outscored 35-16 in the third quarter. Turning the ball over 17 times certainly didn't help and that number can be directly attributed to Conley's absence. This is Memphis' first six-game losing streak since April of 2016. They scored just 38 pts in the second half vs. Dallas. Shooting 45.7% for the game was actually a drastic improvement from the previous two games when they were below 38%. 

I mentioned earlier that Denver has the depth to fight through the Milsap injury, but losing a player averaging 15.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.1 assists will definitely have a negative effect. Of course, Milsap alone couldn't have made up the difference in Wednesday's 125-95 beatdown at the hands of Houston either. The team shot only 40.2% from the field in that defeat. That leads me to bring up something that may be in the Grizzlies' favor here and that's the fact they've held their previous two opponents to 39.8% and 42.9% shooting respectively. The Under is 7-1 for them when facing winning teams and 6-2 when they're listed as the underdog. Each of the L3 games have gone Under. With both teams adjusting to life w/o a key player, I see the likelihood of some pretty ugly offensive efforts being likely here. 10* Under Grizzlies/Nuggets

10* Youngstown State (9:00 ET): With all the Holiday Tournaments going on around the country, this game is certainly likely to be off most bettors' radar, but I think it offers some solid value on the dog. Youngstown State may be only 2-2 SU, but they've scored at least 78 pts in every game, so getting some help from the oddsmakers is a nice luxury to have. Now, the Penguins have played two lined game thus far, neither working out, even though they were the dog in both. That's because they allowed over 100 pts to both Kent and Canisius. Their two wins came at the expense of Franciscan University and Westminster (PA). But it's not as if Northern Colorado is any "great shakes" as they've twice lost by double digits, only to come back and win games at Pepperdine (by two) and over non-board team Northern New Mexico. This is a neutral site game, played in Sioux Falls as part of the Sanford Pentagon Showcase. I'll take the points.

Not much is being expected from YSU this season. They finished 8th in the 10-team Horizon League last season and that's where they are being pegged again this season. They have a 1st year HC in Jerrod Calhoun, who found success at D-II Fairmont State, who he led to the title game last season. Calhoun replaces Jerry Slocum, who retired after 12 seasons on the job. There is some talent here, notably senior Cameron Morse, a two-time All-Horizon League selection. Sophomore Braun Hartfield, a Cleveland-area native, scored a career-high 31 pts in the loss to Canisius last week. Freshman Garrett Covington is off to a nice start as he scored 18 pts (career-high) in the last game and is shooting 72% from the field. He also had seven steals in the team's first win of the year. 

Northern Colorado is off a 39-point win, which I guess is why they are favored here, but I'm not sure they deserve to be. The Big Sky rep is just 4-10 ATS when laying points the previous three seasons. The Bears finished towards the bottom of the Big Sky last season. They don't shoot the ball particularly well (40.3 FG%), including 26.9% from three-point range. They easily could be 1-3 SU entering this game. 10* Youngstown State

8* Portland (12:05 ET): Coming into the season, I considered seven teams to be "locks" for the postseason in the Western Conference: Golden St, Houston, San Antonio, OKC, Minnesota, Denver and the Clippers. Thus far, Portland has certainly done an admirable job of making me re-think their exclusion from the list. The Blazers come into Friday w/ a per game point differential (+4.2) that exceeds all but five teams in the league right now and that quintet consists mostly of the heavyweights you'd think it would (Warriors, Rockets, Celtics). However, all is not necessarily well in the Pacific Northwest as the team is looking to bounce back from an ugly 20-point loss in Philadelphia the other night. A visit to Brooklyn should theoretically get them back on track. Lay the short number. 

Brooklyn isn't horrible this season, which for them is an improvement. They just got done playing the two NBA Finalists from each of the L3 seasons (Warriors, Cavs) and more than held their own, covering each game. They're actually riding a 3-game ATS win streak coming into today. They engaged in a shootout w/ Cleveland, losing 119-109, but the game was much closer than that most of the way. It wasn't until LeBron James "went off" in the 4Q that the Cavs finally pulled away. Something to note about this Nets team is that they are playing at the fastest pace in the entire league right now. Aside from Golden State, most of the teams at the top of that list aren't very good as the fast pace has a negative effect on the defensive end. Sure enough, the Nets rank 27th in defensive efficiency.

It can't be overstated how massive an edge Portland has defensively in this matchup. They join Boston and Oklahoma City as the only three teams in the league that are currently allowing fewer than one point per possession (#2 in def efficiency). In more "traditional terms," they allow just 97.4 points per game (only Boston allowing less). For the sake of comparison, Brooklyn is allowing 114.2 PPG, second MOST in the league. That 17-point difference in points allowed per game looms large here. With Portland looking to bounce back from an ugly defeat, I look for them to put the clamps down this afternoon. They haven't allowed more than 101 points in a game since November 2nd. Opponents have shot 43.3% or worse from the floor in six of the last seven games. 8* Portland

8* Over Warriors/Thunder (8:05 ET): What a matchup we have here, the night before Thanksgiving, as the Warriors head to OKC to take on the Thunder. The game will be on ESPN. After a slow start to the season (by their lofty standard), Golden State has ascended to its usual spot atop the league. Boston may have a better record, but no one is outscoring its opponents by a larger margin than the Dubs (at +10.4 PPG) or has a better net efficiency rating. Not surprising is that the two-time NBA Champs lead the league in scoring (117.9 PPG) at the top efficiency playing at a top five pace. OKC has underachieved thus far as they have a losing record (7-9 SU) despite outscoring their foes by a healthy 4.6 points per game. Their defensive efficiency has been very good, but will be tested (severely) here. I like the Over.

Golden State has failed to cover its last four games. They opened this four-game road trip w/ a loss in Boston last Thursday, getting held to only 88 pts in a heavily-hyped matchup. They've since followed w/ wins over Philadelphia and Brooklyn, averaging 121 PPG. Both games easily went Over as they allowed 116 and 111 points. They're allowing 107.5 PPG, which obviously makes it hard to cover, another reason I'm not interested in laying the points here. The Dubs' defense will most certainly be tested tonight as OKC's own scoring average jumps to 107.1 PPG here at home (103.2 overall). Of course, GSW has more than enough firepower to counter whether or not Kevin Durant (sprained ankle) plays or not. Incredibly, they are operating at a higher efficiency than last season by about two points per 100 possessions. They lead the league in fast break scoring - by more than nine points per game over the next best team!

Oklahoma City's big issue this year has been close games. They are 0-8 SU in contests decided by three points or less. They may rank third overall in defensive efficiency, but they tend to fall apart on that end of the floor late in games. Their defensive efficiency in the 4Q ranks 24th and in the "clutch," they are allowing 1.47 points per possession, which would rank dead last in the league over the last 20 seasons. So again, whether or not they have Durant, Golden State should have no issues scoring here (they still have Curry, Thompson and Green). The Thunder have their own "Big 3" - Westbrook, George and Anthony - all of whom average more than 20 PPG. Golden State is 5-1 Over this season in road games if the O/U line is 220 pts or higher. 8* Over Warriors/Thunder

10* Dallas (8:05 ET): At 3-15, the Mavs currently have the worst straight up record in the league. But I don't think that they're the worst team as there's a handful of teams w/ worse scoring differentials and efficiency numbers. While I by no means expect this team to make any kind of surge into contention, I do think we're now at a point where there will be some value in grabbing them plus the points. Tonight, they face a Memphis team that not only has a losing straight up record at home (4-5), but also a 2-6 ATS mark when favored. So now seems like an ideal time to test the strategy, especially w/ the Grizzlies having lost their last five in a row - SU and ATS! 

The reason for Memphis' slide is pretty simple. It directly coincides w/ the loss of PG Mike Conley to an Achilles injury, which figures to keep him out of the lineup for an indefinite period of time. The losing streak actually began before Conley got hurt, but in the three games (so far) w/o him, the team has averaged just 96 PPG and every loss has been at home. The shooting numbers were pretty ugly against both Houston and Portland as they went just 37.2% from the field overall, including 15 for 57 from three-point range. They were also dominated on the glass by Portland two nights ago, a game in which the Grizz fell apart late. Clearly, they really miss Conley. 

Dallas has experienced some hard-luck losses of late, but none moreso than what happened on Monday as they blew a 13-pt fourth quarter lead to Boston and lost in OT. Remember that Celtics team has now won 16 straight games. The Mavs have also suffered close losses to Cleveland and San Antonio. They've beaten teams such as Washington and Milwaukee this year, the latter by 32 on Saturday. They've also split two games against Memphis and that was when the Grizzlies still had Conley in the lineup. Here in Memphis, they lost by only five and that was w/ a -10 difference in FT attempts and shooting only 34.0% from the field. Led by rookie Dennis Smith Jr (14.1 PPG), I look for the Mavs to possibly pull the outright upset tonight. Take the points. 10* Dallas

8* Providence (7:00 ET): Fresh off taking the 2K Classic in Madison Square Garden, Providence returns home to host mid-major "power" Belmont Wednesday night. The Friars aren't in the Top 25 currently, but are in the "Others Receiving Votes" category as their only loss so far was to #15 Minnesota. In MSG, they beat Washington and St. Louis, the latter by 27 on Friday (90-63) thanks to an incredible shooting display of 62.0% overall, including 9 of 10 from three-point range! And that Washington win is notable b/c the Huskies are the only team to have beaten tonight's opponent this season. Belmont has won four straight since losing their season opener, but the last two were far from impressive, and I don't think this line is nearly high enough. 

Providence was picked to finish fourth in the Big East this season and so far they've shown why they can be a player in that tough league. This is an excellent shooting team (52.3% overall) that even knocked down 79.2% of its FT's against St. Louis. That last game saw the Friars lead by as many as 31 as they assisted on 21 of their 31 made field goals. Consider they did that against a defense that had been allowing just 55.7 PPG previously. A big difference between this team and previous editions under HC Ed Cooley is the depth. Ten players played at least 15 minutes against SLU and only two are averaging more than 30 per game for the season.The Friars have won 29 of their last 37 home games.

Belmont is again favored to take the Ohio Valley Conference this season, but tonight's game is a big step up in class for them after facing patsies Houston Baptist and Seattle the L2 games. Despite scoring 90+ both games, the Bruins went 0-2 ATS and even barely escaped Houston Baptist, winning by just five. It was also a close game into the 2H vs. Seattle. Now previously, they did beat a pair of NCAA Tournament teams from LY (Vanderbilt and Middle Tennessee), so they've shown they are capable of stepping up. But they did lose to Washington (as two-point road favorites), who lost handily to Providence. The fact the Bruins were favored in Seattle does say something about the respect this team carries, but losing on the road was also telling. As an underdog, Belmont has dropped 12 of 17 the L3 seasons. 8* Providence

8* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): Nobody (save for Lakers' diehards) is expecting much from either of these two sides this season, but at least the Lakers are giving us something this year. And what's most surprising of all is that what they are giving us - is defense! Last year, Luke Walton's team ranked dead last in the league in defensive efficiency, but this year they've risen to a shocking fourth (were as high as third), trailing only Boston, Portland and Oklahoma City! As a result, they're a somewhat respectable 7-10 SU after Sunday's surprise win in Denver. But as you can tell from the 127-109 final, that victory was keyed by the offense, specifically Lonzo Ball, who actually shot well (shocking!) and turned in his second-career triple double. I'm going to lay the points here.

Many believe Chicago is going to be the worst team in the league this year. They're deliberately tanking, but I personally think that there are a few teams that will end up w/ worse records. Currently, there are three teams w/ worse records than the Bulls - Atlanta, Sacramento and Dallas - but no team in the Eastern Conference is even close to their -9.4 per game point differential. Last time out, they lost by eight at Phoenix, a significantly worse team than the Lakers. I actually played against the Bulls in that spot, noting their already hideous road play, which is seeing them get outscored by 9.1 PPG. The loss Sunday dropped them to 1-7 SU outside the Windy City. 

This could be a somewhat low-scoring game as it's a matchup of the 28th (Lakers) and 30th (Bulls) ranked teams in offensive efficiency. That aforementioned Lakers defense likely comes in handy here against the second worst offensive team (in terms of points per game) in all of basketball. Also, the Lakers play at a significantly faster pace than the Bulls, who are bottom six in defensive efficiency. So there's a significant edge on one end of the court for the home team as Chicago is giving up 109.1 PPG on the road. Homecourt and a big defensive edge are the keys here for LA and I think that - moving forward - Ball will start to shoot the ball much better. 8* LA Lakers

10* Davidson (10:00 ET): This is a non-Holiday Tournament matchup on the Tuesday slate, which is the exception and not the rule. It features a Nevada team that has been a covering machine the last several seasons (47-25 ATS L72) including a perfect 4-0 to start 2017. But tonight they'll host a Davidson team that is better rested and also topped 100 pts in both of its games thus far. That has me thinking now would be an appropriate time to fade the Wolfpack. In what figures to be a high-scoring game, taking the points is the way to go here. 

Expect plenty of fireworks in this game. Davidson doesn't just lead the country in three-point field goals made per game (19.5), they average FOUR more makes per game than the second-best team! They have four shooters who are a threat from behind the arc. One of them, Peyton Aldridge, was called the "Larry Bird of the Atlantic 10" by Nevada HC Eric Musselman. Another, Kellan Grady, Musslman called the "best freshman in the entire country." Those two have combined to average more than 50 pts for the Wildcats. The team won its season opener, 110-62 over Charleston Southern, thanks to a school record 26 made three-pointers (on 53 attempts). Grady made seven of those in his debut. The Wildcats turned the ball over only once the entire game and led 24-0 at one point. That was followed w/ a 108-81 win over UNC Wilmington. Aldridge scored a career-high 37 pts in that one. Simply put, this team is playing too well right now to be getting this many points. 

While Davidson has been off for a full week, Nevada has had to play twice in the previous six days, both times on the road. They did win each, over Pacific and Santa Clara (two WCC teams), by double digits. Santa Clara, they routed by 30, 93-63. Pacific was a closer game, 89-74, though the Wolfpack led comfortably throughout. Ironically, they achieved a school record in three-pointers in that game w/ 17. These teams seem pretty similar to me, but Davidson is better at making three's and turns the ball over less. Those could very well be the keys here to an outright win, or staying within the number at the very least. Then there is the rest factor. Davidson has won each of the last three times it has played w/ five or six days' rest. 10* Davidson

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): Both of these Eastern Conference teams qualify as "pleasant surprises" early this season, although the "pleasantness" for Orlando is certainly starting to "wear off." They've lost four in a row, the most recent defeat being the worst of the season as they were blown out by FORTY here at home by the Jazz. The previous three losses all took place out on the West Coast and two of them came against Golden State and Portland. When the Magic returned home Saturday night, they were actually six-point favorites against the Jazz in a battle of teams whose nicknames do NOT end in "s." Tonight, I will go against the grain and "buy low" on Orlando as they should be highly motivated to erase the ugly memory of what happened two nights ago.

Indiana is in a much different position coming into tonight. They are off an outright win over Miami, as six-point road dogs, by 25 points. That was their third straight victory, two of them upsets (they also won at Memphis). In between, I managed to cash them as a 10* at home over Detroit Friday night. But despite the respective play recently, these teams still grade out rather evenly, which is why I lean towards Orlando at home. They are much better than what they've shown of late while the Pacers are not quite as good. Indiana shot a scorching 60% from the floor against Miami while holding them to 42.2%, a discrepancy they may not get to enjoy the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Orlando is a lock to improve upon their 38.3% shooting from the last game. 

Indiana swept the season series from Orlando last year, going 4-0 SU and ATS, and is 7-1 SU and ATS against them the last two years. But, on paper, the Pacers are not as strong in 2017 as they have been the last couple seasons. Magic HC Frank Vogel called Saturday "our worst game of the season" and it was in fact the franchise's worst home loss ever. So they shouldn't be lacking for motivation tonight. Guard Elfrid Payton has called tonight a "must win for this group." This, to me, is a classic "buy low/sell high" situation as the Pacers aren't as good as they've looked recently while the Magic aren't nearly as bad as what they showed against Utah. 10* Orlando

8* Marquette (2:30 ET): Two "under the radar" programs that have long since stopped being under the radar clash Monday afternoon in Maui. Both VCU and Marquette enter in off home losses, but those were expected considering the competition. VCU fell to to Virginia, 76-67 as 6.5-pt dogs. The "Havoc Defense" we are accustomed seeing from the Rams just wasn't there against their bigger in-state rival as it was them that turned it over a dozen times (only forced five) and they never got closer than three in the second half. Note Virginia is not currently ranked, by the way. The team that Marquette lost to, Purdue, is however. A size disadvantage was too much to overcome for the Golden Eagles as they were crushed in the paint and lost 86-71 (only trailed by 2 at half).

Marquette is patiently waiting for the 6'11" Harry Froiling, a SMU transfer, to become eligible next month. Until then, look for HC Steve Wojciechowski's team to play small ball. Sam Hauser and Markus Howard form an excellent starting backcourt. This team is more than capable of really lighting it up from three-point range w/ the addition of Andrew Rowsey, a UNC Asheville transfer that has 48 pts in two games. Off their first NCAA Tourney appearance in four years last season, the Golden Eagles likely finish as a middle of the pack team in the Big East this year. But that does not necessarily mean they are not a good team. 

VCU is one of only eight programs to make the NCAA Tournament each of the last seven seasons. But they have a new HC this year as Will Wade departed for LSU. Mike Rhoades was an assistant back in the Shaka Smart days, so he knows the program well. Still, the inability to force turnovers against Virginia was certainly disconcerting. Rhoades felt his team was "well prepared" for that UVA game, but if so, that's not a good thing considering the result. This is one of the weaker VCU teams in recent memory and they have lost 13 of the last 15 times (straight up) that they have been an underdog. 8* Marquette

10* Clemson (9:30 ET): Perhaps taking a cue from the school's football team, Clemson basketball is already 4-0 this year w/ three of the wins coming by double digits. The one exception was an 81-76 win over Ohio on Thursday, but they led that game by as many as 15 pts before letting the Bobcats in through the "back door." The Tigers are averaging 82.7 PPG thus far, an impressive number. Tonight finds them as a slight favorite against a Temple team that has played only twice (both wins) and off a minor upset of Auburn on Friday. The Owls' season didn't even begin until Thursday when Clemson had already played twice by that point. I think the additional games played for the Tigers is a big edge here and I'll take them here in Charleston at a great price.

This is the third time that Clemson has reached the Final Game of the Charleston Classic. It's their first time participating in the event since 2013-14, which - not coincidentally marked the last time they started a season at 4-0 SU better. This particular edition of the Tigers is not shy about hoisting three-pointers (45 attempts last two games) and was 10 of 28 from behind the arc in Friday's 78-59 win against overmatched Hofstra. While they have only two starters back from LY, the starting five accounted for 68 of the team's 78 points. Defensively, it was a strong effort as they held the Pride to only 44% shooting from the floor. This event taking place in Charleston is obviously a huge edge for Clemson. 

Temple has now covered 12 of its last 13 November games following a 2-0 ATS start this year. It was a "tale of two halves" against Auburn on Friday as they shot only 33.3% in the first  (led by one at the break), but then 67.9% in the second and pulled away for the 88-74 win as a 2.5-pt dog. The team's first game was against Old Dominion and they won there 76-65 as a short favorite. Interestingly, it was the complete opposite of the Auburn game as they shot 51% in the first half, but only 25% in the second. So they've yet to really play a good game for 40 minutes. This will be the Owls' toughest test to date and it comes at an event where Clemson is 7-1 SU all-time, including a win over Temple in the 2008 Final! The Tigers have held three of their four opponents under 70 pts and that's huge because Temple is just 1-14 SU the L15 times it has not gone over 70 pts. 10* Clemson

10* Phoenix (8:05 ET): For the Suns to be favored, you have to know that the opponent is weak and sure enough, in comes Chicago on Sunday. This is not exactly the "marquee matchup" on the NBA slate for Sunday as Phoenix comes in at 6-11 SU (but are being outscored by 9.0 PPG) while Chicago is 3-10 SU (-9.5 PPG). Surprisingly, both are off wins here. The Bulls upset Charlotte on Friday, 123-120 as 6.5-point underdogs, snapping a five-game losing skid. Meanwhile, that same night saw the Suns gain a measure of revenge against the Lakers (who beat them earlier in the week) as they prevailed 122-113 as 7.5-pt road dogs. You could make a case that Phoenix is lucky to have six wins, but the bottom line is this is one of the rare times they come in as the better team. Lay the short number at home.

It was a 40-point fourth quarter for Chicago against Charlotte on Friday that enabled them to get the victory. To call that kind of scoring outburst "rare" from this team would be putting it mildly. The previous game saw them score only 79 points total, including just SEVEN in the first quarter. This is one of only three teams in the league NOT to be averaging 100 PPG as they are at 94.9 PPG, which ranks 29th (only ahead of Sacramento). They are also 29th in efficiency as well, joining the Mavs, Lakers and Kings as the only teams not to be averaging one point per possession. It's not like they're very good defensively either as they rank 20th in efficiency there. On the road this season, they are 1-6 straight up and being outscored by 9.3 points per game. They have not scored 100+ pts in B2B games at any point this season.

Phoenix has actually scored 112 or more points in four of its last five games! Now, defensively, this team leaves a lot to be desired. But as discussed earlier, they don't have a lot to worry about here checking the Bulls. One thing that will be interesting to note during the course of this game is the pace. Phoenix is tied for the fastest pace in the league while Chicago plays at the fourth slowest. If the Suns can "speed the game up," then it's advantage them. The Bulls have lost all five games against the Western Conference this year, by an average of 20 points per game. It's pretty rare that you'll get to go against them laying this few points. Do it! 10* Phoenix

8* Boston (7:35 ET): A road favorite, tempting as they may be, that's this hot is typically something I might shy away from. But I'll make an exception here as the Celtics, who have won 13 straight (while going 12-1 ATS!), play the lowly Hawks. Not only did Atlanta hand Boston it's lone ATS defeat during the 13-game SU win streak, but they are also coming off a rather shocking 46-point victory (franchise record!). It was only their third SU win of the entire season and to put it in perspective, they did play the Kings. Meanwhile, just to show where Boston is at right now, they were able to beat the Warriors on Thursday despite shooting less than 40% from the floor. This is a massive drop in class for them, as they go from facing the best team in the league to one of its worst. It's just the opposite for the Hawks. Lay the points. 

Atlanta was actually off a win the last time they faced Boston, albeit of a much different variety. They had just stunned Cleveland the day before, 117-115, as 11-point road dogs. Here, they've had some time off (two days) since pulling off the most lopsided win in franchise history. Just to show how much different the market now views Boston, they were only 7.5-pt favorites at HOME for the first meeting w/ the Hawks. While there were 24 lead changes in the game, note the Celtics did lead by as many as 10 in the 4Q. Note the Hawks shot 50% from three-point range in that game, something I seriously doubt they'll repeat tonight. After all, Boston is the #1 team in the league in terms of defensive efficiency and holds opponents to only 42.8% shooting overall. They just held the WARRIORS to 88 points on 40% shooting. 

The fact that Boston won Thursday night, despite shooting only 32.9% from the field (7 of 32 from 3-pt range!) is remarkable. It also reinforces that they are the best defensive team in the league right now. It's become cliche to say, but what a remarkable coaching job Brad Stevens is doing here. Yes, you can point to the massive edge the Celtics enjoyed in FT's as a reason for them beating Golden State. But no such edge will need to be present to beat this lowly opponent. Over the L3 seasons, Atlanta is just 5-15 ATS when facing an opponent that is giving up less than 98 points per game. Boston gives up 94.1 PPG. This is a much bigger mismatch than the oddsmakers are accounting for. 8* Boston

10* Princeton (7:00 ET): The Ivy League contingent has opened a disappointing 0-2 SU/ATS, having faced both Butler and BYU. They were favored over the latter, at home, Wednesday night but shot only 37.7% from the floor and scored 56 points. That was a major disappointing considering how well they shot (55.6%) against Butler (road game) in the opener. I'll call for something close to that here as Princeton faces a St. Joe's squad, which has given up an average of 90 points through its first two games. The Hawks would be 0-2 themselves if not for an overtime win at UIC Monday. They trailed by as many as 11 late in the second half there. That was after giving up 98 in regulation at Toledo in the season opener. Though less rested and on the road, I like the underdog here.

This game will come down to how well Princeton can shoot the ball. Considering they shot at a 55.6% clip already this year, we know what they're capable of doing. They even shot 60% from three-point range in that first game. The issue there was they fell behind early (trailed by 10 at half) and were dominated on the boards by Butler (outrebounded 31-18). I do not expect either situation to present itself again tonight. Against BYU, the Tigers actually enjoyed a 36-23 edge on the boards, but in a cruel twist of fate could not make baskets. It was a two-point game w/ just three minutes to go, but Princeton could get no closer.

As I stated earlier, St. Joe's should feel pretty fortunate that they too are not entering this contest at 0-2 SU. Trailing UIC by double digits is not a "good look," even if the Hawks were slight underdogs on the road. Nor was getting blitzed by Toledo a good look either. St. Joe's fell behind in that game, 18-4, and trailed the whole way. They also allowed the Rockets to make 14 of 25 from three-point range! Considering Princeton has shot at a 47.1% clip from behind the arc these first two games, look for that to be an effective option tonight. Take the points. 10* Princeton

10* Over Blazers/Kings (10:05 ET): We've got two teams at opposite ends of the Western Conference spectrum here. Portland may only be 8-6 SU, but it has a scoring differential of +5.7 PPG, which is tied for the fifth best in all the league. Sacramento has the worst point differential in the entire league as they are getting outscored by 13.6 PPG, which is obviously just an awful number. That makes this a total mismatch on paper, especially w/ the Blazers playing surprisingly good defense (only allowing 98.2 PPG) while the Kings are by far and away the lowest scoring team in all of basketball at 93.6 PPG. But speaking of "total," that's where the play is here as Portland's string of five straight Unders is bound to end soon, especially w/ them averaging 112.7 PPG on the road and up against a bad defensive team. Take the Over. 

The Under is 10-4 for Portland this year, including 9-2 in games in which they are favored. That's largely owed to the defense, which is only giving up an average of 94.8 PPG during the 5-game Under streak. But, despite those defensive efforts, the team is only 3-2 SU in that stretch. They had lackluster offensive nights in home losses to Brooklyn and Memphis. Even in a victory over Orlando Wednesday, they managed to only shoot 43.7% from the field. I feel this is correctable and the shooting numbers are due to go up. Facing an awful defense team should help. The Kings currently rank 29th in defensive efficiency and have allowed their last three opponents all to shoot 51.8% or better. In their last game, they gave up 126 points to Atlanta on 63.3% shooting! 

Sacramento is back home now after an ugly 0-3 SU road trip that saw them get outscored by 91 points. This is probably the worst team in basketball right now and it's going to be a long season. But you have to think that the offensive numbers can only go up from their current putrid state. How, in today's NBA, a team could only clear 100 pts once in nine games is almost unfathomable. Thankfully, the Kings do at least average 98.4 PPG at home, which is about five points per game over their overall season average. They've only played five times at home, yet predictably are far more competitive here than on the road where they're being blown out on a routine basis. These teams haven't met in 11 months (surprising) but will become quite familiar with one another as this is the front end of a home and home. Look for Portland to be prolific from three-point range tonight as opponents - on average - are making 13 three-pointers per game against the Kings, the highest such number in the league. 10* Over Blazers/Kings

10* Indiana (7:05 ET): I said to fade Detroit in their last game and sure enough they ended up losing, 99-95 (as 3.5-pt dogs) at Milwaukee. Now, for some, that closing line may have actually ended up a little higher, thereby affecting the ATS result. But my view of the Pistons has not changed here as I believe they've overachieved due in large part to a home-heavy schedule (no one going to games though!) in the early part of this season. They'd played only five road games prior to visiting Milwaukee on Wednesday and were coming off a perfect 5-0 home stand. But they've failed to top 95 points in either of their last two roadies, which includes a 20-pt loss to the Lakers. Tonight they'll be facing a revenge-minded Indiana squad that lost by 17 up in the Motor City earlier this month. 

Prior to that loss, the Pacers had won and covered seven of the previous eight meetings w/ this particular Central Division rival. That included a 4-0 SU/ATS sweep last season and a 4-0 SU/ATS mark here at home the L2 seasons. Indiana is not expected to be a playoff team this year, but at 7-8 SU, they've at least been competitive. They are coming off a 116-113 win at Memphis Wednesday night, which saw them score 67 first-half points (most allowed by the Grizzlies this season) and build a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter. Darren Collison had himself a remarkable game, scoring 30 points (12 for 12 from FT line) w/ eight assists (no turnovers). 

Unlike Detroit, the Pacers have played a majority of their games on the road. This will be just their third home game in November. They've lost the previous two, to New Orleans and Houston. So I suspect motivation will not be lacking here, especially when you add in the revenge factor. Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five revenge spots, by the way. Meanwhile, despite losing by only four at Milwaukee Wednesday, the Pistons trailed by 13 entering the fourth quarter. So we have a couple of misleading final scores to deal with here and as a result we have a home side that's being undervalued. 10* Indiana

8* Quinnipiac (6:00 ET): This is a neutral site affair, part of the Paradise Jam, which takes place in Lynchburg, Virginia. The winner will play either Drake or Wake Forest in Saturday's semifinals. Colorado is 2-0 SU, having beaten in-state foes Northern Colorado and Denver by double digits. But despite also going 2-0 ATS in those games, it really tells us very little about where the Buffaloes are actually at entering 2017. This is a much different team than the one that went 19-15 SU a year ago, personnel wise. Four players were lost to graduation, leaving a rotation that is a "work in progress" according to HC Tad Boyle. There are eight newcomers that have seen action thus far. One of them is NOT freshman Evan Battey, who was expected to be a starter in the frontcourt, but instead must sit out this entire year due to academics.

Quinnipiac is 1-1 SU so far, having played two close games against Ivy League schools. They opened w/ a one-point win over Dartmouth and then followed that up by losing by seven to Brown. Both were home games for a school known more for its polling institute than its athletic programs. From 2009 to 2014, the Bobcats produced three 20+ win seasons. However, they are just 34-57 SU the L3 seasons under HC Tom Moore. One positive here though is that they have covered four of their last five neutral court games. They also have one of the top players in the MAAC, that being Chaise Daniels, a senior who has 39 pts, 11 rebounds and six blocks in the first two games. Freshman Rich Kelly looks to be an impactful newcomer as he's scored in double figures in both games.

Though they've previously covered twice as double-digit favorites, this is the biggest spread to date for Colorado and I wouldn't trust them just yet, especially at a neutral setting. Furthermore, they've actually lost 6 of their previous 10 neutral site games. Not saying they'll lose this one outright, but winning by this kind of margin seems unlikely. The 27-point win over Denver on Tuesday can be explained by the fact that the Buffs had four days off before the game. They still allowed the Pioneers to shoot 55.6% from the floor in the 1H though before the underdog admittedly ran out of gas. I'm also not sure CU will get to enjoy a 2:1 rebounding edge, like they had vs. Denver, again tonight. Quinnipiac actually shot well in the loss to Brown (48%) and if they can do that again, they should easily cover here. 8* Quinnipiac

10* Over Warriors/Celtics (8:05 ET): This will be promoted as a potential "NBA Finals Preview" and I really can't argue w/ that as, right now, these are the top teams in their respective conferences. Golden State, of course, is the league's best team - by a significant margin. However, I'm not sure they are deserving of this level of favoritism, especially w/ the game being in Boston and the Celtics on an incredible run right now (13 consecutive victories!) that has seen them cover the spread 11 times (11-1-1 ATS). In fact, the Celtics' overall ATS record of 12-2-1 qualifies as the BEST EVER start at the betting window I've ever tracked! Quite frankly, I don't have a good read on the side here, but the total I do like and I see this matchup going Over the total.

The Dubs have won seven in a row themselves and had covered the spread six straight times before "slipping by" Orlando Monday night, 110-100 as 12.5-pt home favorites. As per usual, we find them leading the league in offensive efficiency and points per game. A little surprising is that they're scoring more on the road w/ an average of 123.7 PPG, which is of course unreal. Save for a 97-80 win over Miami, this team has scored at least 110 pts in every game during the current win streak. Keep in mind Steph Curry didn't play against Orlando, yet the team still shot 50% from the floor overall. But where Curry's absence did hurt was three-point shooting as the team went just 8 for 23 from behind the arc, and 5 for 18 excluding Klay Thompson. Normally, the Warriors make 13 three-pointers per game (15 on the road!). Also, with the game vs. Orlando in hand, they only scored 22 pts total in the 4Q.

What makes this such a fascinating matchup is that it's a battle of the #1 team in offensive efficiency vs. the #1 team in defensive efficiency. Boston is allowing a league-low 94.5 points per game, which is four fewer than the next best team. At home, they allow just 93.4 PPG. So something will have to give here. From Boston's perspective, this O/U is high, while for Golden State it's obviously a little low. The Celtics have gone Under in all five games they've been a dog this year and are shooting only 43.3% from the field, for the season. But this figures to be a high-possession game, which lends itself to the Over. 10* Over Warriors/Celtics

10* Utah (8:00 ET): Here's an interesting, early-season non-conference battle. Both Missouri and Utah are 2-0, but that was expected by the oddmakers. The Utes have played a couple of cupcakes - Prairie View A&M and Mississippi Valley State - and blew them out by a combined 59 points. Missouri actually opened w/ Iowa State (in Columbia) and won by 15 as six-point chalk. The Tigers' last opponent, Wagner, was totally overmatched in a 99-55 final. So who comes out on top here? Well, the answer to that question likely depends a lot on who will or won't play here. Mizzou could be w/o at least one key contributor and that could be the difference. Regardless if they are shorthanded or not here, I'm fading them in their first road trip of this young season.

Utah outscored MVSU by 20 pts in each half on Tuesday, resulting in a 91-51 win. What it was clearly an overmatched opponent, I was nevertheless impressed w/ how the Utes dominated despite being w/o one of their top players Sedrick Barefield (sick). They also didn't have Jayce Johnson for a second straight game. Those are expected to be two key contributors for a team that lost four of its top six scorers from a year ago, so it's pretty impressive that they haven't "skipped a beat." Barefield is reportedly feeling better and thus is probable to play tonight. As I'll get to more in a moment, this game taking place in Salt Lake City is huge and not just because the Utes are 32-5 SU their last 37 games here. 

Missouri has lost an unconscionable 35 consecutive "true" road games dating back to a win at Arkansas in 2014! I'd say that's a "pretty big" deal in handicapping this matchup, don't you? Also there's a good chance they will be w/o their projected NBA lottery pick Michael Porter Jr, who is battling a hip injury. He's currently listed as questionable for tonight. Also, another player - guard Blake Harris - left the last game w/ a leg injury. Not only has Mizzou been an atrocious road team that last four seasons, they predictably haven't been good as an underdog either, losing 39 of 44 straight up in that role, most of those coming away from Columbia. More of the same here. 10* Utah

10* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): The infamous "process" is starting to pay dividends in Philly as the Sixers have started 7-6 SU. They're also 9-4 ATS, a continuation of last year's success at the betting window when they were the best bet in the league. They just beat the Clippers here in L.A., 109-105 Monday (as 1.5-pt dogs) and will now play their second straight game at Staples Center, this one coming against the Lakers. "Showtime" is also off a win, theirs coming at Phoenix, which snapped an ugly three-game SU/ATS losing skid. The Lakers are playing remarkably well at the defensive end this season (4th in efficiency!) and with this being the finale of a five-game trek out West for the 76ers, you have to wonder what they may have left in the tank. Love the home dog here. 

Yes, the Lakers are one of four teams currently allowing fewer than one point per possession. The other three are: Boston, Oklahoma City and Portland. This is quite the remarkable achievement considering that it was just last season that the Lakers ranked dead last in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 1.11 points per possession. They held Phoenix to just 93 points Monday night, thus avoiding what could have been a winless four-game trip. In addition to the defensive improvement that has already taken place here, we should expect the Lakers to be better on the offensive end in this game as well. I say that because they are averaging 106.0 PPG at home this season as opposed to just 100.6 PPG on the road.

Philadelphia is a bit of a question mark defensively as they are giving up 109.5 PPG. That number jumps to 110.8 on the road. Admittedly, that's a bit skewed due to giving up 135 at Golden State over the weekend. However, let us not forget that this group also lost outright (as a favorite) in Sacramento late last week as well. I'm not yet convinced that this team has earned the right to be consistently favored away from home. They've only been favored four times all year and lost two of those games outright. The two they covered were at home against lowly Atlanta and Indiana. To me, this is more of a "pick 'em" type affair. Consider that over the last three seasons, this will be just the TENTH time that Philadelphia has been favored! Cart before the horse? 10* LA Lakers

10* Northwestern (9:00 ET): We find a Big 10 team laying a pretty short number here to a team from the Big East, even though the game takes place in the former's gym. Northwestern has started its season w/ a couple of closer than expected victories over Loyola MD and St. Peter's, both coming by just single digits. I believe that's played an instrumental role in driving down this number far more than it ought to be. Creighton, on the other hand, has scored 92 and 109 points in its two victories, so it's easy to see why they'd look so attractive as an underdog. But I won't be taking the bait; in fact, this marks a great opportunity to take an undervalued favorite that is ranked #20 in the country. 

Michigan State is obviously the heavy favorite this year in the Big 10, but don't be surprised if Chris Collins has this N'western team not too far behind. I've seen the Wildcats pegged as high as a third-place finish! Again, they are ranked (currently #20), so they won't be sneaking up on anybody. The close win over St. Peter's comes w/ a caveat in that the Wildcats led by 18 w/ 12 minutes to go. It was clearly a case of letting the underdog back in through the back door. It was a similar story in the first game against Loyola, who they allowed to score 51 points in the second half. I suspect such lapses will not be taking place in this game. At least they better not or the Wildcats will taste defeat for the 1st time this season. Remember that Collins got N'western to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history last season. Four starters are back from that team. 

Creighton always seems to rank near the top of the country in offensive efficiency for HC McDermott. They've already made 24 three-pointers this season, shooting at a 41.1% clip from behind the arc. But that was also against much lesser competition than what they'll be facing here. Two players - Marcus Foster and Khyri Thomas - have accounted for 40% of all Blue Jays' scoring this year, which is quite a bit when you consider the team has scored 201 points in the two games. Those two are the only two starters back from LY, so they're less experienced compared to their opponent tonight. That matters this time of year as does the fact Creighton is just 8-13 ATS the L21 times it has been an underdog, winning only five of those games straight up. Northwestern has covered three straight against Big East opponents, plus is 14-5 ATS their last 19 against that conference. 10* Northwestern

8* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): Somebody break up the Pistons! In their return to downtown Detroit, the team has started 10-3 SU. Only Boston, Golden State and Houston can claim more victories right now. If only people would start going to the games! Tonight though, they're in Milwaukee for what sets up as an interesting Central Division battle. The Bucks are only 7-6 SU, but have won three straight (all against Western Conference teams) since acquiring Eric Bledsoe in a trade w/ Phoenix. Pairing Bledsoe w/ everyone's favorite dark horse MVP candidate - Giannis Antetokounmpo - makes Milwaukee a significantly better team than the one who lost 105-96 in Detroit two weeks ago. I'll take them minus the short number in this revenge spot. 

Detroit has won five in a row, but all of those victories were achieved at home, in front of all of those empty seats. While the team is now 7-1 SU in the Motor City, they're only 3-2 SU on the road. Their last road game also happened to be their last loss and it was an ugly one, 113-93 to the Lakers. They did win at Golden State two nights before that, but still, I question if this team can play consistently well away from home. They are just 34-55 SU in road games under HC Stan Van Gundy. A big reason for them beating Milwaukee the first time around (besides no Bledsoe for the Bucks) was a +19 edge in FT attempts. That's not likely to exist here in this rematch being the game is in the Bradley Center. 

Antetokounmpo leads the league in scoring (31.3 PPG), but clearly needed help as the Bucks were lacking in depth. Help has arrived in the form of Bledsoe, who may not be shooting the ball that well yet, but that was to expected given he had yet to play this season. In his first game w/ the team, the Bucks won at San Antonio. They've since won and covered here at home against the Lakers and Grizzlies. A strong defensive effort was the reason they beat the Grizz, whom they held to just 12 pts in the third quarter Monday. The two games before that, they held the opposition to 42.5% and 41.9% shooting respectively. I like those defensive numbers and w/ the Pistons still relatively unproven on the road, I think this is a great spot to fade them. 8* Milwaukee

8* San Antonio (8:35 ET): We've got a mismatch as big as Texas itself on the Tuesday NBA card and not even home court advantage can help the lowly Mavs against the Spurs. Dallas enters tonight's tilt tied w/ Atlanta for the worst record in the league (2-12 SU), though admittedly there are worse teams. But don't let that minor detail fool you into thinking the Mavs have a chance tonight. They failed to cash as home dogs Saturday vs. Cleveland, so a superior opponent in the same price range seems like a solid value to me. The Mavs also failed to cover on Saturday, losing 112-99 as 10-point dogs at Oklahoma City. Meanwhile, San Antonio had zero difficulty against another bottom feeder in its last game as they routed Chicago 133-94 on Saturday. Lay the points. 

It seems as if the oddsmakers have been slow to catch onto the Mavericks' decline as they stand at 3-11 ATS overall, including 1-6 at home. They're being outscored by 8.2 PPG overall and that's against opposition that is mostly inferior to the team they'll face tonight. Offensively, there are big issues in 'Big D' w/ the team ranking 26th in efficiency. They are one of five teams currently not averaging at least one point per possession. But defensively, they are actually worse as they come into this game ranked 29th in efficiency. It's a struggle to even get the 39-year Dirk Nowitzki on the court these days as Rick Carlisle now has to lean on the likes of Harrison Barnes and rookie Dennis Smith, Jr. Expect this team to have a high draft pick next summer. 

As for the Spurs, they've managed to go 8-5 SU despite being w/o Kwahi Leonard and Tony Parker. Their offense has really picked up of late w/ the third best efficiency rating in the league over the L5 games, so I expect them to slice and dice that porous Mavs defense. The Spurs defense, as per usual, ranks near the top of the league at #6 in efficiency. There was a four-game losing streak earlier in the year (included Boston and Golden State), but other than that, San Antonio has been as good as usual. Consider they were w/o roughly one-third of the roster and still beat Chicago by 39 points on Saturday. That's actually important to note as the Mavs are pretty comparable to the Bulls these days. 8* San Antonio

8* Duke (7:00 ET): Unlike football, we don't have to wait for a playoff for #1 vs. #2 in College Hoops as we're getting it here in just the second game of the season! It's Duke vs. Michigan State tonight as part of the "Champion's Classic" in Chicago The top ranked Blue Devils have actually played twice and as you'd expect, they had no difficulty in dispatching of both Utah Valley State and Elon. Michigan State has just one game under its belt and similarly had no problem, even covering a 31-point spread (barely) against North Florida (won 98-66). Sparty does have revenge here for a nine-point loss in Cameron LY (were 13-pt dogs), but the Blue Devils will be too tough yet again.

Everyone likes to say how Coach K "does things the right way," but all the young talent he's "renting" for the time being would make even Coach Cal blush. Only one Duke player - Grayson Allen - even played in LY's Michigan State game. The freshman class, led by the superb Marvin Bagley III, will carry this year's team. Thus far, Bagley has been as good as advertised, posting a double-double in each of his first two games. Bagley went for 24-10 Saturday against Utah Valley State (99-69 final), helping Coach K become the first in his profession to 1,000 career wins. Three other freshman also scored in double figures. Incredibly, Duke's first 40 points were all scored by freshman. Four start and expect there to be times when five are on the court together here. By the way, none of this should be viewed as a negative. This team is supremely talented. 

Michigan State has some key freshman as well and they'll be charged w/ helping Sparty's six-game losing skid to the Blue Devils. That includes a 2015 Final Four loss. One concern I have here for Coach Izzo's team is that they shot only 25% from three-point range in the season opener. They will NOT be able to impose their will here on the inside against a much stronger opponent. Were the spread a bit larger, I'd at least consider the underdog here, but it's basically nil and all we basically need is a straight up win from the favorite. Duke is the better team on paper and I do expect them to win. Consider that Izzo is just 5-14 SU his L19 game when listed as the dog. Look for #1 to beat #2 in this early season showdown. 8* Duke

10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): This is hardly a marquee battle in the Western Conference as two teams at the bottom face off. The Lakers, playing their fourth road game in seven days, come in on a three-game losing streak. To avoid a winless trip, they'll have to beat Phoenix, which may actually be easier said than done. That's because Saturday saw the Suns pull a nice upset here at home, 118-110 over Minnesota. Widely projected to be one of the worst teams in the entire league this year, Phoenix started 0-3 and promptly fired HC Earl Watson. They are a far more respectable 5-6 SU under interim Jay Triano and the situation clearly favors them tonight as they're playing a fourth consecutive home game. Thus, I wasn't surprised to see early betting change who's favored here. 

Both Devin Booker and TJ Warren scored 35 points for the Suns Saturday night as the team shot a blistering 52.5% from the field. Minnesota is a bad defensive team, mind you, but I expect the Lakers' own defensive numbers to start plummeting as well. They come into tonight ranked 6th in defensive efficiency, which downright shocked me. When these teams played back in the second game of the season, it was a 132-130 final w/o overtime. But the Lakers' offense has been a problem recently, failing to even score 100 pts in any of the L3 games, so I seriously doubt they'll match that kind of production. They are near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency coming into tonight as #2 overall DC Lonzo Ball continues to struggle w/ his shot. 

Ball almost had a triple double in that first meeting (one assist shy), but finally became the youngest player in league history to record one as he finished w/ 19-13-12 in Saturday's 98-90 loss at Milwaukee. But, as alluded to earlier, his shooting has been way off in the early part of his pro career.  The expectation here will be this is a much "easier" game for the Lakers following three in a row against top tier teams from the Eastern Conference. But I still don't like their chances as they're just 1-5 SU on the road overall and getting outscored by 8.5 PPG overall in those contests. Keep in mind Milwaukee was playing in the second night of back to back Saturday and should have been ripe for a letdown, considering they'd just upset San Antonio. The Lakers still failed to take advantage. Meanwhile, the Suns won their last game, despite being in the 2nd game of a B2B themselves (Minnesota had been off for two days). Considering those respective results, you have to like the Suns here in what is a far more favorable situation. 10* Phoenix

8* Under Cavs/Knicks (7:35 ET): When talking early season-disappointments, Cleveland certainly needs to be near the top of that last. The three-time defending Eastern Conference Champs have started 6-7 SU w/ losses to Atlanta, Brooklyn and these Knicks. They've been outscored by an average of 3.2 PPG so far and that's after beating lowly Dallas on Saturday, 111-104, as six-point road favorites. That was actually the team's first cover as chalk in NINE tries this season! So I definitely want no part of the spread here. With the total, Cleveland's #3 offensive efficiency rating coupled with being #30 (last!) on defense certainly seems conducive to an Over play, which is the way each of the L6 Cavs' games have gone! But I'm going "unconventional" here and calling for an Under. 

The Knicks got off to an ugly 0-3 start to the season, but since then have won seven of nine, bringing a sense of optimism to MSG for the first time in a LONG time. This is Kristaps Porizingis' team now as just about the only correct thing GM Phil Jackson has ever done is run Carmelo Anthony out of the Big Apple. While the split isn't quite as dramatic as Cleveland's, the Knicks are a top 10 team in offense efficiency and bottom 10 in defensive efficiency. Again, that sounds like an Over play might be in the cards, but I seriously doubt New York will come close to matching it's 52.2% shooting from the last game, a 118-91 win over the odious Kings. Porzingis led the way again w/ 34 pts there as NY improved to 6-2 SU at home. 

These teams' first meeting of 2017-18 was also the last time Cleveland went Under the total. They lost 114-95 at home (as 10.5-pt favorites) in what - still - is their second lowest scoring game of the season. Interestingly, the total is significantly higher here than it was for that first meeting. The Cavs couldn't hit water from a boat in that game, making only 38.3% of their shots overall and 10 of 33 from three-point range. While they're likely to improve here, the Knicks should see a decrease in their shooting, which was at 47.2% overall and 13 of 28 from three-point range. New York has a 47-29 Under record the L3 seasons when facing a team that has a losing record. 8* Under Cavs/Knicks

8* LaSalle (7:00 ET): Last year, LaSalle and Penn played the final of the Big 5 (Philly schools) matchups. This year, they face one another almost right out of the gate. Both squads have a game under their belt w/ LaSalle winning and Penn losing. LaSalle beat St. Peter's, handily, 61-40 as 9.5-pt home chalk on Saturday. Penn, on the other hand, got off to a disappointing start by losing 80-72 at Fairfield (also on Saturday). As much as the Quakers will be looking to bounce back here, there's another factor at play that I deem more significant and that's the fact the underdog (LaSalle) comes in w/ double revenge. Penn beat them each of the last two seasons, including an upset LY in their own gym. I'll call for the Explorers to turn the table here tough and pull off their own outright victory. Take the points.

Since making the NCAA Tournament back in 2013, La Salle has experienced some lean years. Things bottomed out two years ago w/ a 9-22 (SU) campaign, but HC John Giannini got them back to respectability last season w/ a .500 finish that was actually a bit on the disappointing side as they were 11-5 SU at one point before losing 10 of their final 14 games. They were even 5-1 SU in A-10 play at one point. This year's team is being pegged for middle of the road in the conference standings, but who knows as both Dayton and VCU should be "down" in 2017-18, thus leaving the door open. I was impressed by the team's defense in the season opener as they held St. Peter's to 15 of 49 shooting (30.6%!). I'm hoping for something similar here as LY, they allowed Penn to shoot 47.5% in a game the Explorers probably should have won. 

The Ivy League contingent shot only 36.1% in its opener, including 9 of 39 from three-point range. That number of attempts marked a school record, so we know what the philosophy seems to be here. The Quakers were outscored in the paint 36-26 by the Stags, not really a good sign when you think about it as they get set to face a bigger opponent. LaSalle clearly needs to exploit the interior in this game. It's not as if Penn is some powerhouse out of the Ivy League; they're expected to finish below Princeton, Harvard and Yale. Last year, they were fortunate to hold off LaSalle, winning by just three thanks to a career-best 35 pts from AJ Brodeur. This is a pretty young roster, especially for an Ivy League team. With two games coming against ranked teams next week, it's pretty imperative that LaSalle wins this one. I think they will. 8* LaSalle

8* Houston (6:05 ET): Indiana has been able to outperform its - admittedly small - expectations in the early part of the season, going 6-7 straight up. But that should change here as they play one of the league's best teams in Houston. It should be pointed out that prior to beating lowly Chicago (105-87) on Friday, the Pacers had lost four in a row - failing to cover the spread all four times. Houston comes in having won five in a row after last night's double revenge spot where they finally beat Memphis, 111-96, as seven-point favorites. Hitting the road w/o rest should not be a problem for the Rockets, who are far more talented that their counterparts this evening. Lay the short number. 

Houston is now 10-3 SU overall, which has them tied w/ Golden State for the best record in the Western Conference. Of course, they opened the season by upsetting the Warriors, rallying back from a big second half deficit in the process. They're 9-1 SU against everyone besides Memphis thus far w/ the only loss coming at home to Philadelphia, a game in which the Sixers couldn't miss (55.0 FG%). Last night, it was James Harden leading the way w/ 38 points and the game was even more of a rout than what's let on by the final score as Houston led by 23 entering the fourth quarter. They made 16 three-pointers, the fifth straight game w/ at least that many, tying their own NBA record set just last season. This team is not known for defense, but they had 14 steals and forced 20 turnovers last night. 

Indiana actually swept Houston last season, so there is a revenge angle in play here tonight for the road faves. Houston shot shockingly poor in both games against the Pacers last season (36.4%, 41.0%) and went just 21 of 84 (25%) from three-point range. They should easily top those numbers tonight. Indiana allowed every opponent to shoot 50% or better during the four-game losing streak, before getting the benefit of facing the Bulls, who shot a woeful 39.8% from the floor. Save for games against the Bulls and Kings (league's two worst teams?), every Indiana opponent has scored at least 101 pts, save for one. Here they face a team that ranks #2 in offensive efficiency, trailing only (of course) Golden State. The only way to beat Houston is to play good defense, but the Rockets actually come into this game w/ a better defensive efficiency rating than the Pacers. 8* Houston

10* Louisville (2:00 ET): To say it was a tumultuous offseason for Louisville just might be the understatement of the decade. Rick Pitino was forced to resign in disgrace amidst scandal that had engulfed the program. So too were multiple assistants. But while the coaching staff may have changed, there is still plenty of talent remaining on the court. New HC David Padgett (just the third L'ville HC since 1971!) inherits a Top 20 team with numerous returning starters back and I have no reason to believe that the Cardinals won't be very good this season. Early on, I think we'll be able to take advantage of some soft lines as the expectation is L'ville might "fall on its face." That's not going to happen though and my read for this opener is that they're severely undervalued. 

This is a deeper L'ville team compared to last year. Just how much they'll miss Pitino's coaching remains to be seen, but my guess is that it's something that's being overstated. Padgett can lean on preseason award winners Deng Adel and Quentin Snyder, both of whom averaged more than 12 PPG last season, not to mention a trio of returning starters - Ray Spalding, V.J. King and Anas Mahmoud. Furthermore, there is a trio of freshman and one key incoming transfer (Dwayne Sutton) that should bolster the depth. Again, this is a very talented team. As long as Padgett can block out the distractions, the Cardinals are going to win plenty of games this year and possibly nap second place (behind Duke) in a loaded ACC.

George Mason (forgot to mention them!) is the first opponent for Padgett and Louisville. The Patriots have already played a game, winning Friday by just two (67-65) over Lafayette. The game was won on a pair of free throws w/ just six seconds left. GMU has some quickness, but will be severely overmatched inside as L'ville has a massive size advantage w/ four players checking in at 6'6" or taller. George Mason's tallest player in the starting lineup is 6'7" (Goanar Mar) and there really isn't any other bigs to speak of beyond him. The Patriots won on Friday in large part to Lafayette shooting only 42.2% from the field. Louisville will shoot much better than that thanks to the advantage down low and that will eventually wear the underdog down. 10* Louisville

10* New Orleans (7:05 ET): The Clippers really let me down last night, failing to even cover in Oklahoma City. They lost 120-111, dropping to 1-6 SU and ATS their last seven games, following a 4-0 SU/ATS start. They are also now 2-14 ATS the L3 seasons following three consecutive games in which they went Over the total. Last night's game went Over, so that trend is still in play tonight as they visit New Orleans. The Pelicans just concluded a 4-0 ATS road trip (against mostly bad teams), going 3-1 SU as well. They did lose the last game, by four at Toronto, but should be able to take advantage here of the Clips playing in the second night of a back to back. It may seem strange to see the Pelicans favored over LA, but I believe the line is justified. 

The Clippers defense has been very poor each of the L2 games and it doesn't appear as if that is something that can be fixed quickly. They allowed both the Spurs and Thunder to shoot better than 51% from the floor. More troubling for them is that the Pelicans have shot better than 50% each of its last two games. Paul George, who hadn't done much of anything for OKC, went off for 42 pts last night vs. LA and it was the Thunder's highest scoring game of the year. Really, it was a pretty misleading final considering the Clips trailed by as many as 20 pts in the second. This is their third road game in five nights and they're short-handed to boot. Patrick Beverly (knee), Danilo Gallinari (glute) and Milos Teodosic (plantar fascia) have all been ruled out tonight.

It's been a bit of a strange season for the Pelicans thus far as they are 5-3 SU on the road, yet only 1-3 SU on the road. They are 2-0 ATS against LY's NBA Finalists here, however, having beaten Cleveland and covered against Golden State. This team has two of the best players in the league, Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, who can dominate the interior. Guard Jrue Holliday also had 32 pts and 11 assists Thursday against Toronto. I don't think New Orleans will have any issue scoring in this game. After all, despite the home record, they are averaging 110 PPG here. Assuming they can slow down and unrested and short-handed foe, it should not be an issue covering tonight. 10* New Orleans

8* DePaul (4:00 ET): While virtually all of the South Bend faithful will be paying attention to the football team's huge Top 10 showdown w/ Miami tonight, Notre Dame's basketball team comes into the season ranked #14 in the land. It's a solid starting point, but probably a bit too high in my estimation and it's not like the Fighting Irish have ever been a particularly great road team under HC Mike Brey. Therefore, I'm making the call to take underdog DePaul and the points in this season opener. This will be one of the bigger games of the year for the Blue Demons, who are unveiling their brand new arena in Chicago. For Notre Dame, it's simply "just another game" and not one they'll have much interest in winning by any kind of significant margin. 

DePaul is off a 9-23 SU season, but they have four starters back, at least giving them some much-needed experience. They should be extremely motivated here. "We want to play well and win the game. We want to show that the change of DePaul's culture is real," said Blue Demons' junior guard Eli Cain. He added "It's not just talked about. It's not just something we can go around saying in interviews and put on social media. We want to show that that's the real deal." Furthermore, the Blue Demons haven't beaten Notre Dame in some time. They've lost nine straight times to the Irish, their longest losing skid EVER in the 105 all-time meetings and are just 1-8 ATS in those games. But it will be a stronger DePaul team than per usual taking the court Saturday, one that not only has four returning starters, but also three key transfers. 

Led by senior Bonzie Colson, Notre Dame is thinking Final Four this season. Last year's team only made it to the Round of 32 (eliminated by West Virginia), but the two years before that, they made it all the way to the Elite 8. Again, my view is the Irish are slightly overrated coming into this season. The team was picked to finish third in the rugged ACC (by the media), behind Duke and UNC, but I think it's a VERY thin line between third and seventh in the league and the Irish could finish anywhere in between. They are only 3-8 ATS the L11 times they have been a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, losing five of those games outright. They've also failed to cover in any of their last three games vs. Big East opponents. Take the points here in what should be a close game. 8* DePaul

8* Vanderbilt (9:30 ET): Vandy typically owns one of the more unique homecourt advantages in all of College Basketball and we should see that on display in the season opener against overmatched Austin Peay. The Commodores were a NCAA Tournament team a year ago, their first under HC Bryce Drew, and once again figure to be a factor in the SEC. Don't let the pointspread scare you here as Vandy is 6-1 ATS the last seven times it has had to lay at least 12.5 points at home while Austin Peay is 1-6 ATS the last seven times they've gotten that many. The Commies are also 25-7 SU, 18-10 ATS the L2 years here in Nashville. Austin Peay has a brand new HC (1st time since 1990) and a pretty young roster to boot. They're really "up against it" tonight.

Last year ended in heartbreak for Vandy when Matthew Fisher-Davis inexplicably fouled Northwestern's Bryant McIntosh in a tie game when there were just 14.6 seconds remaining in a 1st round NCAA Tournament matchup. Fisher-Davis was arguably the team's best player LY and he's back for 2017-18, ready to build on a 13.9 PPG scoring average. The All-SEC guard should also have some help up front w/ the triumvirate of Clevon Brown, Djery Baptiste and Ejike Obinna. If even one of those players steps up, it should be a good year for the Commies. Also, there is Jeff Roberson, who is in-arguably the team's best two-way player. 

It's a new era for Austin Peay as Dave Loos is done patrolling the sideline, which he occupied since 1990! Former South Carolina assistant Matt Figger replaces him and has a lot of work to do considering all the newcomers on the roster. Figger also will likely be implementing the defensive system learned under Frank Martin at South Carolina and that's going to take time and there will be growing pains. Especially here as Vandy has a number of holdovers that can shoot the ball, plus two impressive newcomers in Saben Lee and Max Evans. This should turn into a blowout rather quickly. 8* Vanderbilt

10* LA Clippers (9:35 ET): Oklahoma City's woes against the Western Conference continued last night w/ a 102-94 loss in Denver. Now, it's REALLY getting hard for me to justify them being close to the top of my personal power rankings as that loss drops them to 4-7 SU on the year, even though they have outscored opponents by a decent margin. But it's now four straight losses (and counting?) and their record vs. conference foes is now an ugly 0-6 SU and ATS. Tonight, they host a fellow contender (Clippers) and I want no part of laying points w/ the Thunder right now. Certainly not w/ LA on its own losing skid right now (three games), making them just as desperate. This is a matchup where you almost HAVE to take the points. I will. 

The Clippers started the year looking great. They were 4-0 SU and ATS, leaving many to ask "Who needs Chris Paul, anyway?" Well, turns out that question is as silly as it reads as ever since the Clips are just 1-5 SU/ATS, leaving them at .500 overall. The three straight losses came to Memphis, Miami and at San Antonio. I played against them in the last one, but it's interesting to note they've opened as bigger dogs here than what they closed at for that Spurs game. That doesn't make a ton of sense to me, quite frankly. Like the Thunder, LA has outscored its opponents by a decent margin this year, which means they are better than their overall record. While it was just one bad quarter vs. the Spurs that doomed them, shouting could reportedly be heard afterward in the Clippers locker room, leading me to to believe they will be an angry and motivated bunch tonight.

The Clippers fell victim to some red hot Spurs' shooting the other night (15 of 28 from three-point range), but they should count on that NOT being the case here as OKC came into last night's game shooting a dismal 42.5% from the field its L5 games. They shot right around that percentage Thursday and managed only 19 pts in the fourth quarter to lose 102-94. They've now failed to score even 100 pts in four consecutive games. This situation clearly favors the road team as OKC is playing w/o rest after dealing with the high altitude of Denver. The Clippers last played Tuesday. Both teams are a bit banged up, but the bottom line is that I expect a close game here and am not sure how the oddsmakers could favor the Thunder this significantly, given the situation. I'd take the points here no matter which team was the underdog. 10* LA Clippers

8* North Carolina (7:00 ET): Defending Nat'l Champion UNC has to start the season w/o the services of PG Joel Berry II, but still shouldn't have much difficulty here w/ Northern Iowa. Berry is certainly a key loss; he was named Most Outstanding Player in LY's Final Four and it's a completely silly reason why he is out (broke his hand punching a door after reportedly losing a video game!), but nevertheless there's still plenty of talent on hand for the ninth ranked team in the country. It was another strong recruiting class, which will be counted on to replace the top four rebounders from a year ago. Seventh Woods and Jalek Felton will be the ones charged w/ filling Berry's lost production and, if anything, because of that injury the Tar Heels are undervalued for their opener.

Now Northern Iowa is no stranger to pulling upsets. Two years ago, they even beat UNC, but that was at home. Last year was an ugly 85-42 loss in Chapel Hill and while it may not get that bad again this year, clearly the Panthers are outclassed here. Ben Jacobson's team was a disappointing 14-16 SU overall last season and thus they enter 2017-18 w/ reduced expectations compared to previous seasons. Last year's team was also a very poor 10-19-1 ATS at the betting window. While that usually results in a better mark the following year, the fact is the Panthers were just terrible as underdogs a season ago, going 3-10 SU and getting outscored by 17 pts per game. You may want to wait until MVC play begins to start betting this team. 

UNI is picked for second this season in the Missouri Valley as they have four returning starters plus an impressive freshman in Tywhon Pickford. But, still, they should be outclassed here as they'll struggled to keep pace and find success on the boards against what is certainly a taller and more athletic team. Typically, the Panthers are not very good away from Cedar Falls (9-17 SU, 10-16 ATS L2 seasons) and they really struggled to score on the road last year (59.1 PPG). Obviously, that's quite problematic when facing a foe that averaged 84.4 PPG last year, which was among the highest averages in the entire country. Last year's meeting saw UNI shoot only 33.3% from the floor and get to the FT line just eight times. 8* North Carolina

8* Over Thunder/Nuggets (10:35 ET): OKC comes into this game off a horrific loss, 94-86 at Sacramento. It was their third consecutive loss and fifth consecutive Under. Yet, I still have this team 4th in my own power rankings despite a 4-6 SU overall record. They've got the 4th best point differential in the sport and have played much better than the record shows. It's downright stunning that after taking a 25-10 lead over the Kings after 1Q, they lost going away. They'd go on to score only 64 points over the final three quarters, unfathomable considering the talent on hand here. It's a much different opponent tonight as Denver was the top Over team in the league LY and comes in averaging 107.3 PPG at home. The string of OKC Unders ends here. Take the Over. 

The Thunder are #2 in the league in defensive efficiency (1 of 3 teams allowing less than one point per possession) and allow only 96.8 PPG. Combine that with the unexpected offensive struggles and you have a team that has been a boon for Under bettors. You have to think that the their FG% from the past five games is going to go up. The rate of 42.5% is really bad and in fact there's been only one game all year where they shot 50.0% and that was almost two weeks ago. They were just 33.7% from the field against Sacramento, so improvement tonight is all but assured. They certainly can't go just 10 of 37 from three-point range again, right? Denver has been playing better defense this year compared to last, but still gives up 106.1 PPG. 

These teams are in the same division (Northwest), so they are quite familiar w/ one another, even though the names on the back of the jerseys may change from year to year. Tonight's O/U line seems very low when you put it up against ones we saw LY when oddsmakers were projecting 225 or more total points being scored. One interesting thing about the Thunder's defense is that it seems to wilt late. When the game is close (five point margin or less), they actually own the league's worst defensive rating. Denver has scored at least 108 pts in five of its last six games, so they're certainly a team that can put the ball in the bucket. Nikola Jokic had a career-high 41 pts Tuesday against Brooklyn and that's a game where the Nuggets didn't even shoot the ball well from three-point range (9 of 34), yet still got to 112 as a team. I look for a high-scoring affair tonight. 8* Over Thunder/Nuggets

10* LA Lakers (7:05 ET): I've written before that teams playing the second game of a back to back are often undervalued, especially if they're playing on the road. That looks to be the case here w/ the Lakers, who lost last night in Boston. Lonzo Ball and company fell behind big early (33-16 after 1Q) last night, but was able to make a game of it due to holding the Celtics to just 38.8% shooting. They got as close as two points. Yes, the Celtics lost TWO key players to injury (Horford, Tatum), but I was nevertheless impressed by the Lakers not giving up. Here, they're facing a Wizards team that is not only 0-5 ATS at home, but also 1-6 ATS when favored at any site w/ four outright losses. I'll grab the big number as Washington appears to be overvalued. 

The Wiz are off an incredibly embarrassing defeat, here at home, Tuesday night. They lost - as 9.5 pt chalk - to the Mavs. Not only did they lose, they lost by double digits. They allowed the Mavs, who came as losers of six in a row, to shoot 52% in the first half and score 64 points. That's pretty unforgiveable. Keep in mind the Mavs came into that game ranked 28th in the league in points per game (97.9) and wound up scoring a season-high. Defense continues to be an issue for this Wizards team as they're giving up 118.2 PPG at home. Again, they have yet to cover a game at home and are just 1-6 ATS laying points. 

By the way, this is the second time these teams have met this season. The Lakers won the first meeting, outright as a home dog, back on 10.25. It was 102-99 as 5.5-pt dogs, a game which went to OT after the Wiz were outscored by 10 in the fourth quarter. It was also one of the Lakers' best defensive efforts of the season. What Luke Walton needs right now though is #2 overall DC Lonzo Ball to start shooting the ball better. He's at only 29.5% this season, which would be the second lowest FG% over a player's first 11 games (w/ a min of 100 FG attempts) - EVER! You have to expect Ball to start shooting better moving forward. Considering the Wizards allowed 122 and 130 in home losses previous to Washington, there's no doubt in my mind that the Lakers will be able to put up enough points to cover here. They showed they can play defense against the Wiz in that first meetings, thus look for another close game. 10* LA Lakers

8* Under Heat/Suns (9:05 ET): While the respective nicknames here may reference warmth, on the court, both Miami and Phoenix are ice cold. Miami has been a bad bet from the start of the season, going only 2-6-2 ATS its first 10 games. They're off an ugly 97-80 loss to the Warriors where they were held to just 36.1% shooting. I certainly want no part of them here, considering an 0-3 ATS record as chalk. But Phoenix isn't exactly begging for an endorsement either as they've dropped three in a row and shot even worse than Miami (34.9%) in their last game, which was a 98-92 home loss to Brooklyn. Certainly, you have to expect some improvement in shooting from one or both sides tonight, but this O/U line still seems too high, thus I'm on the Under. 

The Suns became the 1st team to fire their head coach this year, 86'ing Earl Watson after an 0-3 SU/ATS start. They'd go on to cover their first five games under interim Jay Triano, even going 4-1 SU in the process. But they've since reverted back to the team we all thought they'd be w/ the three consecutive defeats. There's a lot going on here right now as the team finally found a trade partner (Milwaukee) for PG Eric Bledsoe, who infamously tweeted "I don't want to be here" after the Watson firing. On the positive side, Devin Booker became the fourth youngest player in league history to score 3,000 pts Monday against Brooklyn. (Only LeBron, Durant and Carmello did it faster). But as we saw in that game, Booker alone is not enough to carry this team offensively. Twice in the last three games, the Suns have shot 35% from the field! 

Miami has some of its own personnel issues right now, namely Hassan Whiteside's reaction to being benched Monday. They were already w/o Dion Waiters, who is out due to the birth of his child. That leaves them quite limited offensively and the result was ugly against Golden State w/ only 80 pts scored. Interesting to note here though are each team's recent defensive showings. The Heat have held three of its last four opponents to 40% or worse from the field (including B2B games). The Suns also kept Brooklyn right around 40% as well. Low scoring games are not uncommon for Miami this time of year as they are 24-8 Under in November the L3 seasons, including 3-0 this season. 8* Under Heat/Suns

10* Orlando (7:05 ET): On the short list of pleasant, early-season surprises, I present the Magic. They're 6-4, which is tied for the third best record in the Eastern Conference right now. That WL record was even better before they dropped B2B games (at home), to Chicago and Boston. The latter loss is certainly excusable, considering the run the Celtics are on right now, but beating the Bulls would seem to be a prerequisite for being truly taken seriously. Another surprising 6-4 team in the East is the Knicks, who invade Orlando tonight off B2B wins, the latest coming last night against Charlotte. Interestingly, the Knicks trailed by double digits entering the 4th quarter in each of their last two wins, making it quite the improbable win streak for them. I hate the situation they're in tonight and will fade accordingly.

Just to illustrate how rare an achievement the Knicks have pulled off here, this is the first time they have EVER won B2B games when trailing by DD entering the 4Q in the shot-clock era (1954-)! It's the first time they've won B2B games when trailing by 15+ (at any point) in both since '06. Last night saw them rally back from 15 down to beat Charlotte at home, led by Kristaps Porizingis' 28 pts, which has his scoring average at exactly 30.0 PPG through 10 games. No Knick has ever averaged that many through the first 10 games - ever! Three nights ago, the team rallied from 19 back to beat Indiana, also at MSG. The first of three wins, again at MSG, came at the expense of lowly Phoenix. I know Knicks fans are DYING to cheer about anything right now and it's impressive that the team has won 6 of its last 7 (started 0-3). But, I'm just not ready to buy in yet. They are still have a negative efficiency rate. 

As I said earlier, I hate the situation tonight from the Knicks' perspective. Yes, teams are often undervalued playing in the second game of a B2B. But that's not the case here. If anything, it's Orlando that's being undervalued here. Despite B2B sub-90 pt efforts, they are still averaging 109 PPG. On the defensive end, they're holding opponents to just 41.9% shooting here at home and that's a problem for a Knicks team that comes in averaging only 95.7 PPG on the road. (Again, the entirety of this Knicks' win streak has been at MSG). The Magic have also been off since Sunday. The Knicks will also not come anywhere near the 60.0 FG% we saw last night while Orlando should drastically improve upon its own 36.3 FG% from its last game. 10* Orlando

10* Over Thunder/Kings (10:05 ET): Oklahoma City is only 4-5 SU coming into this game, but that's highly misleading as they own the league's third best scoring differential at +7.2 per game. (Only Golden State and Boston are higher). Three of their losses have been by four points or less, including the most recent one, which was 103-99 at Portland on Sunday. That also marked their fourth consecutive Under. Now some of these early season numbers for the Thunder remain skewed due to their 101-69 beatdown of the Bulls back on 10.28. But, I expect their scoring to start going up as well as their points allowed. Tonight, they face a dreadful Sacramento team which ranks 28th in the league in defensive efficiency. Sounds like an Over to me!

The Kings have just one win to their credit thus far and it came all the way back in the second game of the season. This is, for my money, the worst team in the league right now. They are being outscored by 12.0 PPG and their net efficiency is also a league worst. It's seven straight losses and counting and just to further illustrate how bad things have gotten here, they haven't covered the spread in any of those SU losses. They did push Saturday in Detroit, losing 108-99 as nine-point pups, but that had to still be considered quite the disappointing result as they shot a season-best 52.6% from the floor and still lost by a wide margin (trailed by 11 entering the fourth quarter). I see them offering little resistance here to an OKC team that will likely be "out for blood." 

The Kings have failed to top 100 points in four consecutive games, which is downright embarrassing in today's NBA. They at least came close Saturday after failing to score more than 86 in their previous three losses. It doesn't seem to promising for them facing a Thunder team that is 2nd in defensive efficiency, not to mention holding its opponents to a 42.9 FG%. But I believe that number is due to increase substantially for OKC as there's just no way its opponents can continue to shoot that horrendously. Remember, that Chicago game (28.2 FG% allowed) still skews things heavily w/ only nine games played. I see this as being a high-scoring game, just as OKC's last four visits to California's capital city have been. All four games went Over the total including games w/ 217 and 240 total pts scored LY. 10* Over Thunder/Kings

10* San Antonio (8:35 ET): Early on, it appeared as if the Clippers wouldn't miss Chris Paul at all. They opened 4-0 SU, but reality has since set it w/ them losing four of five. The most recent defeat came at home Sunday afternoon, 104-101 to Miami, a game in which they trailed by as many as 25. Things get no easier for the Clips tonight as they must travel to San Antonio. The Spurs' season has followed a similar pattern to their counterparts here as they started 4-0, only to then drop four in a row. But they've bounced back w/ B2B wins over Charlotte and Phoenix here at home. They may have actually trailed the Suns at halftime (by four), but the second half was a complete rout w/ Greg Popovich's team building a lead that got as high as 27 pts. I'll lay a short number here w/ them at home.

San Antonio is uncharacteristically not near the top of the league in defensive efficiency. That has a lot to do w/ the fact Kwahi Leonard has yet to suit up this season. He's been ruled out for tonight, as has PG Tony Parker, but there is enough holdover talent here to keep winning. Remember that last Thursday, they led Golden State by 19 before letting the game slip away (lost 112-92). Despite the lack of efficiency, the Spurs are still #5 in the league in points allowed (100.0 per game). The defense was on full display Sunday vs. Phoenix when they allowed just 13 points in a critical third quarter. LaMarcus Aldridge is having a fine year here, averaging 22.4 PPG (team-high) on 48.3% shooting (also a team-high). 

The entirety of the Clippers' 1-4 stretch was at home, which is not a good sign. The lone win was against league-worst Dallas as well. In fact, the Clips have played only two road games all year and one was against the Lakers, which really shouldn't count (teams share the Staples Center). So that leaves them having played only one "true" road game and it was a one-point win over Portland. San Antonio is notoriously one of the toughest places to play in the league and all things considered this is a really short number. Note LA is 2-12 ATS after going Over in three straight games, something they have done coming into tonight. 10* San Antonio

10* Over Heat/Warriors (10:35 ET): Three losses in 10 games is enough to proclaim "the sky is falling" for Golden State, but that speaks to how high they've "set the bar" these L3 seasons. Needless to say, any reports of this team's "demise" have been greatly exaggerated as they return home Monday, fresh off a 3-0 SU/ATS road trip where every win came by at least 19 points. That was after starting just 4-3 SU (1-6 ATS), so it's safe to say the Dubs are back on track. Tonight, they are massive favorites in what I believe is the biggest pointspread to date this NBA season. While Miami is playing the second game of a B2B, not to mention a third road game in four nights, I'm not sure this large of a spread is justified. Therefore, I was far more interested in the total for this late night matchup.

Coming into this current trip, the Heat were 0-5-2 ATS their first seven games, leaving them as the league's lone winless team ATS. That's a far cry from last year when they were one of the best bets at the window. Of course, they did get off to a pretty horrendous start last year (11-30 SU first 41 games) before turning things around rather dramatically in the second half (went 30-11!). Here, they are off B2B close games, having lost to Denver by one on Friday (covered) and then beating the Clippers by three Sunday afternoon. One could make the arguement that the Heat should have taken both games as they led Denver most of the way and they led by as many as 25 yday, before successfully holding off a late LA rally. 

Golden State may not have the league's top record (just yet), but they are the top scoring team (by a mile) at 120.7 PPG. (Brooklyn is actually #2 at 114.3 PPG!). As a result, the Over has gone 7-3 for them so far. They've shot the ball lights out the L4 games, making over 54% of their field goal attempts. They, in fact, lead the league in FG% currently at 52.6% for the year. They were also an amazing 46 of 97 from three-point range in sweeping their three-game road trip. Now this figures to be the highest O/U line Miami sees all season, but they're a disappointing 17th in defensive efficiency thus far, so Golden State should have its way. At the same time, the Warriors have been just as disappointing at the defensive end, ranking 20th in efficiency. 10* Over Heat/Warriors

8* Over Thunder/Blazers (9:05 ET): Not that divisions really matter anymore in today's NBA, but the Northwest looks to be pretty loaded this year w/ all five teams currently sporting a .500 record or better. In my opinion, these are the two best teams right now in the NW, regardless if the standings say otherwise. Oklahoma City is 4-4 SU, but has outscored its eight opponents by an average of 8.6 PPG. Granted, that scoring differential is owed in large part to a 101-69 beatdown of lowly Chicago last weekend. The team is coming off a very disappointing result Friday as they lost at home to Boston after blowing an 18-pt lead. Portland has actually failed to cover the spread five straight times (though four of those ATS losses have come as favorites), so something will have to give here. 

To me, the total is the better play here on this matchup, more specifically the Over. Now I say that knowing full well how stingy OKC has been this season. They're #2 in defensive efficiency and are giving up only 93.7 PPG on the road. Again though, those numbers are somewhat skewed due to a small sample size that includes the aforementioned blowout of Chicago. Opponents have shot a very low percentage against them this season (39.3% L5 games!) and that undoubtedly will start to go up. (Again, Chicago shooting only 28.2% from the field in that game skews everything). Throw in the fact that Portland is due for a little "market correction" in its own right and I see the Thunder's defensive numbers taking a hit in this matchup. 

Portland is averaging an impressive 107.7 PPG this season, which becomes more impressive when you consider that they are shooting only 42.9% from the floor. This number will start to increase as they have been shockingly poor on two-point attempts. They're actually hitting almost 40% of their three-point attempts and are also an 82% team from the FT line. So when they start hitting the "easier shots" and get inside the paint, that will counteract any likely regression from behind the arc. Defensively, the Blazers have given up 112 and 110 points the L2 games and just allowed the Lakers to shoot almost 55% for the game. Given what both teams are capable of offensively (Thunder has scored 110+ in four of five before Boston loss), this O/U line seems too low. 8* Over Thunder/Blazers

10* Charlotte (8:05 ET): Second week in a row that I'm using the Hornets as my top play of the week. Last Sunday, it was a 120-113 win at the expense of overachieving Orlando, which begat a three-game win streak for them. That came to an end Friday w/ a close loss in San Antonio where they just missed out on covering as 4.5-pt pups (lost 108-101). Speaking of "just missing out on covering," the T'wolves got "backdoored" last night by Dallas as they were outscored 30-19 in the fourth quarter, resulting in "only" a 112-99 win. That was significant for me as I had the Mavericks +13.5! As good as Minnesota may have looked (for three quarters) last night, I'm willing to bank on that not being the case tonight against a better opponent. Take the points. 

I've said this many times before, but Charlotte was my pick for "Most Improved Team" coming into the year. Now, they didn't make any particularly splashy moves in the offseason, save for bringing in Dwight Howard. But the key here is they were quite unlucky last season, most notably going 0-9 SU in games decided by three points or less, not to mention 0-6 in overtime games. That's just not going to repeat itself this year. They've yet to play a game decided by three points or less this year, but this game certainly profiles as being a potentially tight affair where taking the points would seem prudent. Minnesota, who is 4-0 SU in games decided by three points or less so far, dropped to 0-4 ATS in the favorite role w/ last night's non-cover.

In fact, the T'wolves have actually been outscored in spite of their 6-3 SU record. They're giving up a woeful 111.6 points per game and rank 27th in defensive efficiency, which helps explain the poor ATS record as chalk. Prior to last night, they'd yet to win a single game by more than six points this year. Charlotte ranks 6th in defensive efficiency and is a much better team when Cody Zeller is healthy (check the record!), which he is now. Also keep an eye on Jeremy Lamb, who has scored 15+ points in nine consecutive contests. One final note is that this is Minnesota's first win streak of more than three games dating back to 2012. Laying points, they're an excellent "fade" team right now. 10* Charlotte

10* Dallas (8:05 ET): The "glory days" are most certainly over for the Mavs as what was once a playoff mainstay has declined severely and should be considered one of the worst teams in the Western Conference. Actually, in terms of WL record, there's nobody worse than the Mavericks (in either conference) as their 1-9 SU start is a league-worst. Perhaps just as embarrassing is the team's 2-8 ATS record and both covers came at the expense of Memphis in a home and home last week. They lost last night, albeit close, 99-94 to New Orleans at home as 4.5-pt dogs. Them being in the 2nd of a B2B here adds value as early in the season we often find teams in this situation getting way too many points from the oddsmakers.

Minnesota is a team that I would hesitate to lay this many points with, at least until further notice. Case in point, they've already lost outright this season - as 10-pt chalk - to Indiana here at home (gave up 130 pts). This will be an improved team this year, maybe not to the degree originially expected (48 wins seemed a bit too much in my view), but all five wins so far have been by six points or less. Five of those have been by three points or less. So when the T'wolves win, they've been winning close. They achieved their largest MOV of the season on Wednesday, beating New Orleans 104-98 as 2-pt road dogs. I'd like to point out that Minnesota is 0-3 ATS so far in the favorite role. 

Dallas has been shooting the ball horrifically to this point as they are at only 41.5% from the floor, for the entire year. But facing the T'wolves should remedy that as they are allowing better than 50% shooting for the year, including over 55% here at home! This team has been VERY slow to pick up on Tom Thibodeau's defensive philosophy. In fact, they rank 29th in the league in defensive efficiency. This is as many points as Dallas was getting for a road game against Houston a couple weeks back. Minnesota is certainly not on Houston's level currently and they haven't won four straight games since 2012. Take the points. 10* Dallas

10* Miami (9:05 ET): It's always interesting, at least early in the season, when you have two non-playoff teams from a year ago facing off and both think have postseason aspirations for the current year. That's what we have in this matchup w/ Denver hosting Miami. The Nuggets know they probably don't have a chance to crack the top four in the Western Conference, but beyond the Warriors, Spurs, Rockets and Thunder, they have as good a shot as any team out West (of making the playoffs). Over in the East, Miami actually finished with the fifth best point differential (+1.1 per game), but ended up at only .500 due to digging themselves to big of a first half hole (went 11-30 SU first 41 games). This year, it's the pointspread giving the Heat problems as they are the ONLY team in the league yet to cover a single time (0-5-2). But I'm calling for that to change here. Take the points.

Ironically, the Heat were one of the best ATS teams in the league last season (funny how that works out!). I faded them in the season opener, which ended up being a 116-109 outright loss to Orlando. Since then, they've gone 3-3 SU, but the wins were over Indiana, Atlanta and Chicago, who you can expect to find near the bottom of the Conference by season's end. Also, all three wins were at home. In fact, the Heat haven't played a road game since the season opener in Orlando. They're set to embark on a six-game road trip, most of them out West, but one of the (literally!) big reasons I like them here is that Hassan Whiteside is back in the lineup. Making his 2017-18 season debut Wednesday, the big man had 13 pts and 14 rebounds in just 26 minutes as Miami beat Chicago 97-91. 

Denver is off an impressive win, 129-111 over Toronto, to start this season-long six-game homestand. Anything that could go right for the Nuggets there, did, and they led by 32 pts going into the fourth quarter. But I wouldn't look for such a performance to be duplicated anytime soon. I'm a little miffed at how much respect the Nuggets are commanding in the marketplace as they've been favored in every game since the season opener. They're just 3-4 ATS during the stretch w/ two of the wins coming against Sacramento and Brooklyn. The road team won both matchups between these two last season. 10* Miami

8* New York (7:35 ET): The Knicks are not good, but fortunately for them, neither are the Suns and that's who they're hosting Friday night at MSG. It was exactly a week ago when I took the Knickerbockers in an almost identical situation, that being laying a short number at home against a bad team. The result was a 107-86 beatdown of the Nets, which was NY's 1st ATS win of the season (started 0-3). They quickly followed that w/ upsets of the Cavs and Nuggets, but saw the three-game win streak come to an end Wednesday when Houston showed up and blew them out. I like this spot as a bounce back as the Suns have overachieved since making an early season coaching change. They're 5-0 ATS (4-1 SU) for interim HC Jay Triano. But I don't think anyone thinks this is the start of something big and thus I'll fade them here. Lay the points.

Under Triano, Phoenix has averaged 113 PPG. But they've faced some bad defensive teams during this stretch and scored 122 in B2B games. One of those was against Brooklyn. The other, which took place Wednesday, saw them battle back from a 20-point deficit to defeat Washington. That comeback was led by TJ Warren, who finished w/ a career-best 40 points. Again, not to "beat a dead horse," but I expect regression to start taking hold here. This is not a good team and it's either them or Sacramento that will finish in the basement of the Western Conference. This was a team that posted only ONE three-game win streak last season and all three games were at home. 

The Knicks are off a horrific defensive effort as they allowed Houston to sink 19 three-pointers in the 119-97 loss. The good news is that NY is 16-12 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 115+ points their previous game. Kristaps Porzingis was unable to finish the game Wednesday due to being sick and while he's currently not a lock to play, he is listed as probable. So I expect far more from him than the 19 points he scored against the Rockets. This is also a bit of a revenge spot for the Knicks, who twice lost to Phoenix last season, both times by just two points. The Knicks won't get my endorsement too often, but for the second Friday in a row, they're being undervalued (against a bad team) at home. 8* New York

10* Over Warriors/Spurs (8:05 ET): Last season saw the Warriors and Spurs combine for only 36 losses the entire regular season. This season may have started earlier than normal, but it is nevertheless downright shocking that the two have already combined for six losses and we just turned the calendar to November. However, after a 4-3 SU/1-6 ATS start, Golden State definitely appeared motivated Halloween Night in a 141-113 beatdown of the rival Clippers. San Antonio, meanwhile, has lost three straight. All of those losses occurred out on the road, against Eastern Conference teams. The Spurs failed to score 100 pts in any of the three losses, but this is the Warriors they're playing here and thus I see plenty more scoring taking place. I'm on the Over.

It may be a disappointing start to the season for the Dubs, yet they remain the league's highest scoring team at 121.0 PPG. Six of their eight games have gone Over the total, including three straight, all of which had O/U lines of 221 or higher. While this will be the highest O/U line for any Spurs game this season, it ranks on the lower end of the spectrum for Golden State. In fact, it's just the third time for them that the O/U line is lower than 221 pts. They couldn't miss Tuesday in LA, connecting at a 58.4% clip overall, including 14 of 29 from three-point range. Steph Curry led the way w/ 31 and the team scored at least 33 pts in every quarter. The Warriors have now scored at least 117 pts in all but two games and have shot 55% or better from the field four times in the last five games.. But if there is an issue worth monitoring right now, it is on the defensive end of the floor as they're giving up 114.1 PPG.

San Antonio has been w/o Kwahi Leonard from the start, which certainly helps explain their rough beginning to the season. Leonard is obviously one of the best two-way players in this league and his absence is being felt at both ends of the floor. The Spurs are w/o Tony Parker as well, so they're not even close to operating at "full strength" right now. Being that they are one of only two teams (Utah is the other) that is neither scoring nor allowing 100 PPG, I recognize that it is a bit risky to side w/ the Over here. However, consider the opponent and the Spurs HAVE to start shooting better as they've finished at 41% from the field or lower in all three games during the current losing streak. The Spurs are 17-6 Over as an underdog the L3 seasons. Also, all four games in LY's Western Conference Finals went Over the total. 10* Over Warriors/Spurs

10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Milwaukee let me down last night, big time, so I'm going after them here. Actually, that's not the sole reason as even had they beaten the Thunder at home Tuesday night, they'd still find themselves playing the 2nd game of a B2B here, on the road, against a team I feel is set to be among the most improved in the league this year. The Hornets are in off B2B wins here, first cashing as my *10* Game of the Week on Sunday (over Orlando), then upsetting Memphis (on the road) the following night. As I've written about previously, Charlotte is a much better team when Cody Zeller is in the lineup and it's no coincidence that the team has won both games since he returned from his knee injury. Now they're back at home and I'll lay the short number.

As alluded to at the top, the Bucks did not play well last night. They were soundly beaten at home, 110-91 by Oklahoma City, as 2.5-pt dogs. "The Greek Freak," Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to put up MVP-like numbers (28-8-3 last night), but the problem is that the Bucks are not a deep team. That became obvious last night when he had to go to the bench early due to foul trouble. The Bucks were just 1 of 14 from three-point range at one point and never really did get back in the game after falling behind by double digits in the 1st quarter. They trailed by 18 at the half, at home, mind you. It's not as if OKC had been overtly impressive prior to last night's game either. Milwaukee is also going to miss Greg Monroe, who is out for at least 12 days. Him not making his usual presence felt in the paint last night really hurt the Bucks - at both ends. 

This is also an early season revenge spot for the Hornets, who lost 103-94 (as 6.5-pt dogs) in Milwaukee back on 10.23. They did not have Zeller for that contest and shot just 42.3% from the field. It wasn't exactly a banner shooting night yday either, but Charlotte was able to overcome a double digits deficit and going just 41.6% from the floor to beat Memphis 104-99 Monday night. Keep in mind that the Grizzlies had not lost a home game before Monday. Kemba Walker led the way w/ 27 points after going for 34 Sunday vs. Orlando. Believe it or not, but Dwight Howard also looks revitalized here. I say that even though he's off - easily - his worst game in a Hornets' uniform. I expect him to play much better tonight, especially because he won't have to deal w/ Monroe. Charlotte is also playing excellent defense so far as opponents are shooting just 40.9% against them for the year! They are top six in defensive efficiency, which is far ahead of Milwaukee, who ranks just 19th. 10* Charlotte

8* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): Two teams w/ lofty 2017-18 expectations meet in Milwaukee Tuesday as the Bucks host the Thunder. OKC is coming off a whitewashing of Chicago, 101-69 on the road, but let's keep in mind the opponent there and the fact that the Thunder are still only 3-3 SU on the young season w/ their three wins coming against three very bad Eastern Conference teams (Knicks, Pacers, Thunder). As for Milwaukee, they've lost to Cleveland and Boston, a sign that they may not be ready to leap into the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference just yet. But I like the value here on them at home as this will be the 1st time since the season opener (won 108-100 over Boston) that they are NOT favored. OKC has its version of a "Big 3" this year (Westbrook, Anthony, George), but Milwaukee has the NBA's leading scorer in Giannis Antetokounmpo (34.7 PPG) and he just may be the best player on the court tonight, which is saying something. 

Coming off a lopsided result like Saturday may not bode well here for the Thunder. They are just 3-8 ATS the L3 seasons after a game where they held the opponent to 85 points or less. They may not have an opponent shoot as poorly as the Bulls (28.2%) did Saturday, the rest of the season. It's interesting that in all three wins this year, OKC's opponent has shot the ball horrendously, including a 33.7% effort from Indiana last week. Opponents will certainly not go on shooting under 42% for the year against the Thunder, so take those defensive numbers w/ a "grain of salt." Facing the league's leading scorer is bound to affect those defensive numbers. Antetokounmpo has scored 30 or more pts in five of the first six games and additionally is averaging 10.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game. No player in league history had ever previously averaged 34-10-5 over his team's first six games!

Now OKC has Russell Westbrook, who already has three triple doubles in the first six games, also a first in league history. But lost in the fact that the Thunder have benefited from some truly horrific shooting performances from their opponents is the fact they haven't shot the ball all that well themselves. Only once this year have they shot 50.0% in a game. Every other game has seen them at 48% or below. Tonight, they face a team that is third in the league in both effective FG% and true shooting percentage. I'm not ready to buy into OKC as any kind of defensive stalwart yet and w/ this being their third road game in five nights, I see them struggling to stop the "Greek Freak" and company. 8* Milwaukee

10* Minnesota (7:35 ET): The T'wolves came into the season w/ a lot of hype and a projection befitting a top five team in the Western Conference. Personally, I thought those expectations were pretty lofty. Early returns haven't exactly been what management had hoped for, as the team currently sits at 3-3 SU w/ every win close (by three points or less). Two of those were at Oklahoma City's expense, including one on Friday at home. I should point out something about the team's previous two games, however, both of which were losses. Jimmy Butler missed both games and though he's new to this team, the absence was certainly felt. Against OKC, Butler played a team-high 38 minutes and scored 13 of his 25 pts in the 4Q. He was clearly the best player for the T'wolves, which is saying something considering Karl-Anthony Towns also went for 33 points and 19 rebounds.

Miami is just 2-3 SU despite playing all but one game at home. Their lone road game was the season opener, where I played against them, and they lost outright at Orlando. They quickly bounced back w/ a two-game win streak, but those wins happened to come at the expense of Indiana and Atlanta, two of the very worst teams the Eastern Conference has to offer. They've since lost to both the Spurs (by 17) and Celtics (by 6). Against the spread, the Heat are 0-4-1 ATS so far, a far cry from last year when they finished as one of the league's top teams at the betting window.

With Butler in the lineup, Minny is clearly a better team. The fact the team is 3-1 SU in the lineup definitely means something. Meanwhile, Miami is going to be w/out one of its top players Monday, that being Hassan Whiteside, who has been out since the opener. The Heat trailed by 11 going into the fourth quarter against Boston and were held below 100 pts the first time this season. Perhaps its reasonable to expect a bounce back on the offensive end here, but I see a team that lacks the firepower to compete w/ the T'wolves right now and Whiteside's absence will continue to loom large on the defensive end. Minnesota isn't even shooting the ball that well yet, and still is averaging 106.8 PPG. 10* Minnesota

10* Charlotte (6:05 ET): Are the Orlando Magic the best team in the Eastern Conference? Well, according to record and point differential they are, but it's obviously way too early to start drawing any real conclusions from that. Still, tip your cap to a franchise that has done nothing since Dwight Howard left town back in 2012. The Magic have opened 4-1 SU and are outscoring opponents by a shocking 10.8 point per game margin. That margin drastically improved w/ a somewhat shocking result Friday night, a 114-87 win over the Spurs (as 5.5-pt home dogs). They've also beaten Cleveland, by 21 point, also at home. But they've also lost a game at Brooklyn. To me, it's time to "sell high" on Magic stock as here they're facing a team I've proclaimed as one of the most likely to improve in 2017-18. 

Charlotte was an unlucky 36-46 SU last year. I say unlucky b/c they actually outscored their opponents over the course of the season, despite finishing 10 games below .500. The issue was that they were 0-9 SU in games decided by three points or less and 0-6 SU in overtime games. It's interesting to note that in their 48-34 season two years ago, they went 5-0 SU in OT games. This year, largely due to multiple injuries, has gotten off to a disappointing start. Minus Nicolas Batum (out 6-8 wks), Cody Zeller, Michael Carter-Williams (also out indefinitely), Treveon Graham and Julyan Stone, the team lost Friday at home to Houston by a score of 109-93 (were 2.5-pt dogs). The Hornets that did play did not shoot well (37.5% overall) particularly in the second quarter when they missed 18 of 22 shots. Note, however, that it was still a four-point game entering the 4Q. 

Thankfully, it appears as if Zeller will return here. That's huge as the Hornets were a completely different (i.e. better) team w/ him in the lineup LY. He's missed the L4 games due to a bone bruise on his right knee. Prior to the loss Friday, the Hornets were 2-0 at home, winning both games by double digits. They are also 21-15 ATS coming off a DD loss the L3 seasons. Orlando was a stunning 57.1% from the floor against San Antonio, including 11 of 23 on three-point attempts. Meanwhile, the Spurs shot just 33.7% overall and were 4 of 24 from beind the arc. There may not be a game the rest of the season where the Magic enjoy such a decided edge in shooting percentage. They are a virtual lock to decline tonight and that's a big reason while I'll lay a short number w/ the home team here. 10* Charlotte

8* Houston (8:05 ET): I'm a little bit surprised that the Rockets are off a win here as I though last night's matchup (in Charlotte) would be conducive to defeat. But they won going away, 109-93 as three-point favorites to improve to 5-1 SU on the young season. They are w/o Chris Paul for an indefinite period of time, but remember they didn't have him last year and won 55 games. They've pulled out two come from behind victories in the early going, the first in the season opener at Golden State and then earlier this week at Philly. Early in the season, I don't think back to backs matter as much and in fact, the Rockets look to be underrated in this spot against a Memphis team that just struggled in a home and home w/ lowly Dallas (went 0-2 ATS). I think the wrong team is favored here.

The Rockets shot an ungodly 22 of 57 from three-point range in last night's win w/ James Harden going for a triple double as well (27-11-10). They beat a Charlotte team that I have a ton of respect for, even though the Hornets are dealing with multiple unfortunate injuries right now. Now will the Rockets be as prolific from behind the arc this evening? Probably not, but I'm envisioning they won't have to be. Memphis is notoriously one of the weaker three-point shooting teams in the league, even as they move towards the kind of faster pace that has engulfed the modern NBA. In two wins over the Grizzlies last year, the Rockets "doubled up" on points from behind the three-point line, outscoring them 102-51 in that department, Defensively, Houston was strong last night as well, holding Charlotte to 31.3% shooting in the first half, including 4 for 22 from the floor in quarter number two. 

Memphis, like Houston, has a win over Golden State. But they also just lost at Dallas and then failed to cover against the Mavs in the second game of a home and home Thursday (I had the Mavs plus the points Thurs). They've now failed to break 100 pts in three consecutive games (trouble when playing Houston). This is also a rematch from a 98-90 Memphis' win in Houston from earlier in the week. I cashed Memphis there, but it's important to realize they ended the game on a 20-2 run (won 98-90) after trailing by as many as 10 in the fourth quarter. They were also eight-point underdogs in the contest, so needless to say there's been a dramatic swing in price for the rematch, one that can not be simply explained away by change in venue. The Rockets are the better team here and getting points, I'm on them. 8* Houston

10* New York (7:05 ET): The sorry Knicks are only winless team left in the league as they've lost their first three games by an average of 15.3 points per game. They're dead last in scoring (93.3 PPG) and speculation has already begun that HC Jeff Hornacek might be fired if they lose this game. So, needless to say, there's a little bit of motivation here. Brooklyn will be welcomed into MSG tonight, fresh off a stunning upset of Cleveland Wednesday night. That marked the Nets' fourth consecutive cover, a streak the likes of which we rarely saw in last season's moribund 20-62 (SU) campaign. In fact, there were only two times all of last year that the Nets covered four consecutive times. Not once did they cover five in a row. So, now seems like a good time to fade them and coincidentally, at the same time, it's a great spot to "buy low" on the Knicks. 

These area rivals have split the eight H2H meetings the L2 seasons, including a 2-2 mark in 2016-17. The Knicks won the first two last year with the Nets then squaring things away w/ a pair of wins in March. Note that for LY's first meeting, the Nets came in riding a 3-game ATS win streak, were off an upset win (vs. Minnesota) and promptly lost by 14 here at the Garden. It's certainly a bit of a surprise to see them w/ more wins than losses currently, given they lost PG Jeremy Lin on Opening Night. This is a better team compared to LY's version (how could it not be?), but I assure you that the "L's" will begin to pile up. They are just 4-10 ATS the previous two seasons when facing a team averaging less than 98 PPG. 

The Knicks are still trying to figure things out in this post-Carmelo Anthony era. At least, there's no debate now as to whom their best player is, as Kristaps Porzingis is averaging 25.3 PPG, which is second most in the league! I expect the Knicks' offense to get going tonight as the Nets are not a good defensive team. Despite the surprising 3-2 SU/4-1 ATS start, Brooklyn has allowed at least 107 pts in all five game so far. The Knicks did manage to score exactly 107 in their only home game thus far and I'm not going to put a ton of stock into the two 21-pt road losses seeing as they came against Boston and OKC, who both project as Top 10 teams this year. Brooklyn remains a bottom 10 team and staring at an 0-4 start that would likely get their coach canned, I believe the Knicks come up big here. 10* New York