3* Horizon League Game of the Week on Wisconsin Green Bay +2.5
I love Wisconsin Green Bay to knock off Butler tonight. Green Bay sits right behind Butler in the conference and played the Bulldogs to a clos 9-point game on the road January 22. I like Green Bay to have its revenge tonight. WGB is 13-4 ATS in all lined games this season, 7-0 ATS in home lined games this season, 8-0 ATS after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season, and 7-0 ATS after one or more consecutive overs this season. Take the points.

3* Monday Night NBA BEST BET on Clippers +10.5
The last 2 games in this matchup have been decided by 1 point with the Clippers coming out on top in each. A well-rested Clippers team, which has lost 5 in a row will be hungry for a win tonight. The Clippers have won 4 of the last 5 and are on a 7-2 ATS run in Miami. Miami is 4-14 ATS in home games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons, losing these games on average by a score of 93.3 to 93.6. Miami is 1-8 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season. The average score in these spots is Miami 97.1, Opponent 102.2. Take the points.

5* ESPN Big Monday MONSTER BEST BET on Louisville -2.5
Louisville took Pitt down at home and now it will take down the Huskies. is Louisville is a perfect 9-0 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. This is because the Cards do apply a great deal of pressure to their opponents and you have to beat them at their own game to be successful. Easier said than done. UConn is 0-6 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Playing back-to-back low intensity games hurts the Huskies here as Louisville should come out with more intensity following a battle with W. Virginia. L'ville is 13-2 ATS in February games over the last 3 seasons. This is clearly when the Cards play their best ball. Lay the points tonight.

4* Major Saturday Night NBA BLOWOUT on Blazers -9
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Portland has 3 days of rest while Utah must play back-to-back and on the road where it has lost 8 of 9. The Favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. And the Jazz are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Portland. The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Trail Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take Portland.

5* West Coast Conference GOTY on Portland +4
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. St. Mary's is coming off a very emotionally and physically draining game at Gonzaga and will inevitably come out flat tonight. Portland is 9-1 at home this season and it will be ready for the Gaels tonight. The Pilots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. With St. Mary's Patrick Mills expected to miss a month of action, the Gaels are down their best perimeter shooter. Take the Pilots and the points Saturday.

3* SMASH on Arkansas +11
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Arkansas got a much needed confidence-boosting win against Bama last time out and now the Razors will be ready for a Tigers team they have beaten in their last 2 head to head meetings. The Razorbacks are 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and its last win is significant as they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. The Fighting Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Take the points.

3* SMASH on Western Michigan -1
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Kent State is 2-8 SU and 1-8 ATS in lined road games this season. Kent is 0-8 ATS as an underdog this season 0-6 ATS after playing a game as a home favorite this season, and 4-13 ATS in all lined games this season. Take W. Mich at home.

4* Major NCAAB Total of the Week on Washington State/Arizona OVER 115
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. This one ends up at least 10 points over the number. 4 straight games in this matchup played at Arizona have gone OVER. Washington State and Arizona are both 4-1 Over in their last 5 games. The OVER is 12-2 in the Wildcats last 14 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game and 10-2 in the Wildcats last 12 Saturday games. This line looks more like what it should be if the game was at Washington State. Take the over.

5* Friday Night NBA Total of the Year on Clippers/Cavs UNDER 189
The books have set this number just under the 190 mark because it looks attractive to the overs-loving Joe public, but I have this one finishing 10 points under this number. Cleveland just played and emotionally and physically draining game in Orlando last night, and while it now has the incentive to bounce back, you're not going to see Cleveland get up for the Clippers. Each of the last 2 games at Cleveland has gone under the number in this matchup with scores totaling 171 and 182. Defensively, Cleveland has been sensational at home, allowing teams only 89 ppg and that is a big reason why this one stays under. The Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 vs. NBA Pacific, 10-3 in Cavaliers last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400, and 36-17-1 in Cavaliers last 54 Friday games. Bet the Under!

3* ESPN Prime Time SMASH on Celtics -5.5
As much as Detroit would love to win this game, it just isn't the same team without Chauncey Billups and won't be able to get the job done. Boston is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games while the Pistons are 3-7 SU and ATS in their last 10. Boston is deeper, more talented at nearly every spot on the floor, and it wants it more. The Celtics have already buried the Pistons by double digits twice this season and I like them to do it again tonight. The Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite period, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest, and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Pistons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning SU record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Plus, The Celtics are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Detroit. Take Boston.

3* NBA Bookmaker Trap on Wizards +10.5
Philly's recent winning spree has caught the attention of the public, giving the books a perfect opportunity to set their trap. Philly has won 9 of its last 11 games, but it has only been a favorite 4 times during the stretch with the highest number it laid being 7.5. It has failed to cover each of its last 2 games in the favorite role and the books are clearly asking bettors to lay way to many points with Philly tonight. Plays on road teams (WASHINGTON) - after 3 or more consecutive unders, terrible team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game are 39-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

4* Major Thursday Night Bailout (ESPN 2) on Saint Mary's +9
St. Mary's has beaten Gonzaga at home each of the past two seasons but it has lost by 11 and 12 points respectively on the road. This St. Mary's team is better than those while this Gonzaga team is less explosive offensively. This is the year that Mary's has an excellent opportunity to beat the Bulldogs away from home. As was the case with Wake Forest last night, St. Mary's has the luxury of getting a full week to prepare for this game. Mary's is also 10-1 SU and 9-1 ATS in lined road games this season. The Gaels are 7-0 ATS in road games after a game where they covered the spread this season, 6-0 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite this season, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Take the points.

3* NBA on TNT Late Night SMASH on Suns -1
The Suns ended their tough road trip with back-to-back wins and now they are back at home and ready to show the world that they should not be counted out yet. San Antonio has been on fire, but this will be its sixth game out of its last 8 on the road and I expect its veteran legs to be tired against a Suns team has shown a tendency to push the ball more. The key for Phoenix is momentum and confidence which was created by a pair of blowout road wins preceding this one. Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 35-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Suns.

4* Major Eastern Conference Game of the Week on Magic -4
The Magic have made great strides this season and now this is a statement game for them to prove they belong in the discussion of the NBA's elite. Orlando is 17-4 at home this season and is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in all meetings with the Cavs the last 3 seasons. The Magic are a deeper team and they have a huge advantage on the interior with Howard and the Cavs have struggled on the road recently with 8 losses this season. Here's the key: Orlando is 13-1 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season, winning these games by an average score of 107.1 to 95.6. Lay the points.

3* NCAAB Upset Special on FIU +4.5
New Orleans is not deserving of laying this many points but we'll gladly take them. New Orleans is 3-11 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons and1-8 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The slow tempo that New Orleans plays at also condones taking the points here. FIU is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game after 15+ games. Take the points as I like FIU to pull off the upset tonight.

3* SMASH on Florida State +12
UNC will have enough rust tonight after a 1 week layoff to allow the Noles to cover this number. 3 straight wins by UNC has the Heels back to being overvalued and FSU is not getting the respect it deserves here. It played Duke to an 8-point game at home and I like the Noles to keep this one close as well. UNC is 0-6 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by just 6.6 points on average. Take the points.

4* Major NBA Monster Line Mistake on Grizzlies +7.5
This is about as bad a line as I have seen all season. I know the Grizz have lost 10 in a row, but the Thunder have not proven in the least that they deserve chalk like this. Memphis has already won in OKC by 6 points this season and it will get up for this game as it sees it as a great chance to end its losing streak. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 8 or more consecutive losses, with a losing record are 25-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

3* SMASH on Illinois State +3
17-3 Illinois State gets the job done tonight against the red hot Panthers. UNI has been shooting the hell out of the rock but Illinois State's Guard quickness and ability to close out on UNI's 3 point shooters will make life difficult for the Panthers. UNI is just 5-15 ATS in home games off a road win since 1997. Take the points.

5* NBA "TOTAL" Dominator on Hawks/Knicks OVER 207
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. The books have set the bar too low here. The Knicks average 107.3 ppg at home but also allow 106.8. The Hawks are a very athletic team and will match the Knicks bucket for bucket tonight. This one is going to be a shootout. The last time we saw these teams play in NY we saw 220 points score and the Hawks have extra incentive to come quick tonight after laying an egg against Miami. Atlanta is 24-11 OVER versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Take the Over.

3* SMASH on Cincy +6
G-town is struggling as its true colors are beginning to show. The Hoyas have lost 3 straight and 5 of their last 7. Cincy has won 3 of 4 and will be happy to return home after 3 straight on the road. Cincy is an awesome 19-6 ATS after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons and 10-2 ATS on Wednesday games over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

4* Major ESPN GOTW on Wake Forest +1.5
Everything points to Wake here. It is at home in a bounce back spot against a Blue Devils team in a letdown spot, after thrashing Maryland, with a big target on their back. Wake's length and athleticism will really bother the Dukies in this one. Wake is 6-0 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons and 8-1 ATS vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 83.4 to 74.5. Bet Wake.

3* SMASH on Chattanooga +10
Chat has played Davidson tough in the last 2 meetings losing by 7 and 5 points respectively. This team does not fear Curry and company and will keep this one within the number here. Chat is 6-0 ATS in home games after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons and 6-1 at home this season. Take the points.

4* Major NBA Blowout of the Week on Lakers -11
The Bobcats are playing better ball but it really hasn't translated on the road where they are only scoring 90.3 ppg. LA averages 108.9 ppg at home. The Lakers are 15-5 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 111.6, OPPONENT 97.9. The Bobcats are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater. Lay the points.

3* ESPN Prime Time SMASH on Purdue +1
With 4 straight wins in Big Ten play, the Boilermakers are playing like the team we all thought they would be at the start of the season. With 4 straight losses in Big Ten play, Wisconsin clearly is not playing at the level we are used to seeing. Purdue already has a 13-point win over Wiscy this season and I like the Boilers to take down the Badgers again tonight. Purdue is 11-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PURDUE 70.4, OPPONENT 62.9. Purdue is also 9-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. The average score was PURDUE 70.4, OPPONENT 59.2. Take Purdue.

3* NCAAB Line Mistake of the Week on E. Michigan +14.5
Kent State is being severely overvalued here. Kent is 3-13 ATS in all lined games this season, 1-11 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season, 1-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. E. Mich scored only 45 points in its last game and will be ready to play much better this time out. E. Mich is 15-4 ATS in road games off a home loss scoring less than 60 points since 1997. The average score was E MICHIGAN 65.1, OPPONENT 73.5. E. Mich keeps this one well within the number.

3* SMASH on Thunder -1.5
I like the Thunder at home tonight laying a small number. The Thunder are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games, and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. the Eastern Conference. OKC is also 13-1 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. The Nets have lost 5 of 6 while the Thunder have won 4 of 7. They are playing better ball than the Nets right now and I like them to get the W tonight.

4* Major NBA Divisional Dagger on Hawks +4
The Hawks have already beaten Miami in Miami by 14 points earlier this season and after losing yesterday to Phoenix they will be hungry to get right back in the win column. Here's the key: Atlanta is 14-4 ATS as an underdog this season while Miami is 6-21 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. You also have to look at Miami in a letdown situation after a big win over Orlando. Miami is 3-15 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons and 0-9 ATS in home games after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. To branch out even farther, plays against home teams (MIAMI) off an upset win as a home underdog against opponent off a home loss are 40-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points!

5* ESPN Big Monday BOMB on Notre Dame -3
The Irish have played a tough schedule in the early part of the Big East season and have taken some lumps because of it but they are primed and ready to bounce back at home tonight where they are on a 45-1 run. The Irish have more balance on offense and a huge advantage on the interior in this one. Here's the key: Notre Dame is 10-1 ATS off 3 straight losses against conference rivals since 1997, winning these games by 10.2 points on average, and 11-2 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses period since 1997, winning these games by 10.0 points on average. Lay the points.

3* Sunday NBA SMASH on Bulls +5.5
The Bulls have lost 4 straight and will be out for blood against a team they are confident they can hang with. The Bulls are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Timberwolves are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Expect the Bulls to bounce back Sunday. Take the points.

3* MO Valley SMASH on Missouri State -1.5
UNI is due for a letdown after winning 7 straight and it happens today on the road. Missouri State has begun to play some good basketball and is coming off 2 wins in its last 3 games including an impressive blowout win over Drake. Missouri State has won 8 of the last 11 at home in this matchup and will be out for a little revenge after losing at UNI earlier this month. Missouri State is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons, exploding to win by an average score of 72.5 to 51.8 in these spots. Lay the points.

5* NCAAB Public Massacre of the Year on WVU -1.5
West Virginia always gets lost in the discussion of the best teams in the Big East, but it is a legit top 15 team in the country and has been rock solid at home at 8-1. Pitt got its bounce back game out of the way by crushing Cuse after losing at Louisville. It won't be able to get up nearly as high for this one. WVU always plays the Panthers tough. Last season it played Pitt to a 1-point game on the road and crushed the Panthers by 14 at home. The Favorite is a strong 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the Mountaineers are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 Sunday games. WVU is also 12-2 ATS after allowing 60 points or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

3* Underdog SMASH on Seton Hall +9
Georgetown has struggled on the road this season and I like a Seton Hall team hungry for a win to get up for this one to keep it within the number. The Hoyas are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big East. Take the points!

4* Major Saturday Night NBA BEST BET on Jazz -2
(condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap) The Cavs played an emotionally and physically draining game at Golden State last night and will not be ready to bounce back against one of the best home teams in the NBA. Utah is 13-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons, 16-4 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons, and 12-1 ATS in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Take the Jazz.

3* SMASH on Wright State -4
(Condensed writeups do to the amount of games to handicap) Wright State is 8-0 ATS after allowing 55 points or less this season, winning by 6.7 ppg on average in these spots. Wright State is 10-0 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less 2 straight games this season, winning these games by an average score of 60.9 to 48.8. Lay the number.

4* Major ESPN Game of the Week on Notre Dame +2
(condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap) The Irish have won 45 straight at home and after back-to-back losses on the road, I expect the Irish to get back in the win column today. UConn is 1-8 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive home wins over the last 3 seasons and 0-6 ATS in road games after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last 2 seasons. Take the Irish.

5* NCAAB Conference GOTY on Harvard -15
(Condensed writeup do to amount of games handicapped) Harvard was in letdown mode following a big upset win over Boston College and it nearly went down at Dartmouth in its last game. The Crimson have not played since and they'll be ready to show Dartmouth that they don't belong on the same court with them. Dartmouth is 0-6 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by an average score of 54.6 to 79.4. Lay the number.

3* SMASH on Wisconsin/Illinois OVER 119.5
(Condensed writeup do to the amount of games to handicap) Wisconsin averages 63.4 ppg on the road and the Illini are scoring 73 ppg at home. Illinois' defense has been great at home and that is why this number is down but with Wisconsin hungry for a win, I see this one going over by at least 10. The Over is 5-0 in the Badgers last 5 games following an ATS loss.

5* NCAAB Total of the Year on Memphis/Tennessee UNDER 151
(Condensed writeups do the amount of games to be handicapped) These teams have gone under in each of the past two matchups with scores totaling 128 and 134 while facing totals in the 150's. The 128 total was last year when both teams were better on the offensive end. I see this one going way under as well. The Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 overall, 5-1 in Tigers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 25-10 in Tigers last 35 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Bet the Under!

4* Major NBA Anti-Public Annihilator on Warriors +6.5
The Warrior have proven time and time again to be strong in the home dog role and the books are giving them too many points tonight. All the public sees here is that Cleveland has a way better record, but the Cavs have been shaky on the road lately, winning just 2 of their last 6, with two of those losses coming to the lowly Wizards and Bulls. Cleveland's lack of depth has been its biggest culprit lately as they don't have an interior presence that can score with Big Z out and Delonte West's injury rids them of one of their best perimeter shooters. The Warriors are 21-5-2 ATS in their last 28 games as a home underdog of 5-10.5 points and 15-4 ATS in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

4* Major Friday Night NBA BLOWOUT on Hornets pk
Odds makers have figured in the Hornets' injuries too heavily into this line and we are going to make them pay. All they will need is Chris Paul tonight who has been sensational. The Wolves are only 6-13 SU and 6-12-1 ATS at home this season. New Orleans is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at Minnesota the past 3 seasons and is 12-3 ATS in all games at Minnesota since 1996. Minnesota is 1-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season, losing these games by 11.1 ppg. New Orleans is 12-1 ATS in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 109.2 to 100.8. New Orleans has cleaned Minnesota's clock in each of the past two meetings, winning by 34 and 32 points respectively. There will be no answer for Chris Paul tonight and the Hornets will roll.

3* Friday Night UNDERDOG SHOCKER on Pacers +1
The public is not giving the Pacers much of a chance tonight but with McGrady not playing for the Rockets and with Artest likely not going either, the Rockets won't have enough weapons to win against the uptempo style of ball that Indiana likes to play. The Pacers have covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games and have won 3 straight at home. They return home after back-to-back losses on the road and that proves to be significant here as Indiana is 12-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. The Rockets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing SU record, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Rockets are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the Pacers.

3* NBA REVENGER on Bobcats +4.5
The Suns are struggling, having lost 4 of their last 5. They are also a terrible 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games and 0-6-1 ATS over their last 7. You won't believe this but the public is still on them big time and that has Vegas licking its chops. Charlotte has won 4 of 5 and is a perfect 5-0 ATS during the stretch. Phoenix is 3-12 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season while Charlotte is 16-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. The Bobcats have two very vivid memories of the Suns blowing them out in each of the last two meetings and I have Charlotte exacting some revenge here. Take the points.

5* Big East MONSTER BEST BET on St. John's pk
After playing Pitt, UConn, and Villanova, the Red Storm get a team at home that they can compete with. St. John's will be hungry for a win tonight and they'll get it against a Cincy team which has really struggled away from home (2-4 SU & ATS this season)! St. John's is a strong 9-3 SU at home and are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. The Bearcats are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. the Big East, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. The Red Storm are better than their record indicates and showed as much with a big win over Notre Dame this season. Cincy is 9-21 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) after 15 or more games since 1997 while St. John's is 13-4 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. Take the Johnnies!

4* Major NBA Total of the Week on Celtics/Magic UNDER 192.5
Expect a defensive battle tonight as these teams battle it out for Eastern Conference supremacy. In the first meeting this season, we saw 195 points scored, but that was with Boston busting out for 107 and I don't see that here. Boston just played last night and that should slow it down some, but not enough to be competitive in what the Celtics hope will be a statement game for them. Boston is 11-4 UNDER in its last 15. Boston is 15-6 UNDER in road games this season, 8-0 UNDER after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half this season, and 11-3 UNDER in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Orlando is 15-5 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Plays under on home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ORLANDO) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a road win by 10 points or more are 79-39 since 1996. Take the Under!

4* Major NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake of the Month on Seton Hall +2
The odds makers have favored the wrong team here and I'll gladly pound the Pirates with an insurance bucket in my back pocket. Providence has not done enough on the road to deserve the credit it is receiving. The Friars are only 2-4 on the road this season. Seton Hall has lost 5 straight, but it has played decent basketball. It has just come up against the best teams in the Big East during that stretch. It has covered the number in 3 straight, playing Nova, Notre Dame, and UConn tougher than odds makers expected. Now that it is at home and playing a team it can compete with, I expect a great game from the Pirates here. The Friars are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this matchup and the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Take Seton Hall!

5* NBA Home Dog of the Year on Blazers +1.5
The public is all over the Cavs in this one which makes me feel even better about my side. The Cavs has been sensational at home, but the road has not been nearly as kind. In fact, the Cavs have lost 4 of their last 5 road games. With Big Z out, Ben Wallace banged up, and also without Delonte West, the Cavs are short handed. This was evident in their last defeat against the Lakers and it will be again tonight against a Blazers team that is 15-4 at home. Portland is 8-3 SU and ATS in its last 11 home meetings in this matchup. Portland is 32-15 ATS as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons and 10-1 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Take the points!

3* MAC Monster on Buffalo -3
Kent is 3-11 ATS in all lined games this season, 0-6 ATS as an underdog this season, and 1-9 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Kent is just 2-6 SU and 1-6 ATS on the road this season. Kent has had Buffalo's number in this matchup, but with all 5 starters returning from last year's team, this is where the Bulls get some much needed revenge.

4* Major NCAAB Monster Mismatch of the Month on James Madison -10
Towson State has done well in this matchup the past 3 seasons and that's what is holding this line down. The reality is that JM is the much, much better squad this season. JM has covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 games while Towson has lost 8 of its last 10 against the number. Towson is only 3-10 ATS in all lined games this season and is just 3-8 SU and 2-6 ATS in road lined games. JM is 4-1 SU and 3-1 ATS in home lined contests. Towson State is only 4-14 ATS in road lined games over the last 2 seasons. Take James Madison.

5* Southern Conference Game of the Year on Charleston -10
With all 5 starters returning from a team that won 16 games a season ago, College of Charleston is off to an impressive 14-3 start. Charleston is on the level of Davidson. It only lost to the Wildcats by 4 points. It lost to a very good Temple team by 5 and its other loss was North Carolina. After winning back-to-back games on the road in conference play, I like Charleston to really bust out for a big game tonight at home against an inferior Appalachian State. As a marker, Davidson beat App. St. by 18 on the road and this one will likely wind up at least 20. Charleston is 14-5 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 20% to 40%) over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 75.1 to 62.8 in these spots. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games while the Mountaineers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games. Pound Charleston!

3* Big Ten BOMB on Michigan State -12
NW has played very well in each of its last two games, nearly getting Purdue and then knocking off Minnesota. But those games were at home and this Wildcat team has not been nearly as tough on the road. In fact, NW is just 1-4 SU and ATS on the road and was blown by 29 at Wisconsin in its last road contest. The Badgers only allowed 45 points in that game and you can expect the Spartans to hold the Cats down as well. Michigan State is perennially one of the best defensive teams in the country but this Michigan State squad is also a little more explosive than some we have seen recently, averaging 80.0 ppg at home. Michigan State has won 19 of the last 20 in this matchup since 1997 and 8 straight at home during that span. Michigan State is 15-4 ATS in home games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread since 1997 and 26-9 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games since 1997. Lay the points.

5* NCAAB BLOWOUT of the Month on Penn State -2.5
Michigan's true colors are starting to show as the Wolverines have now lost 2 in a row. They rely on the three-point shot way too much and that will continue to cost them in Big Ten play, especially on the road. Penn State is 9-3 ATS in all lined games this season and is a strong 10-3 SU at home on the year. Michigan is 3-11 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons, losing in these spots by 13.0 ppg. Michigan is also 3-11 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons and 2-10 ATS versus teams that can hit them with a dose of their own medicine (in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons). Penn State wins this one by double digits.

3* NBA Underdog Dagger on Pacers +7.5
It will be much tougher for this veteran Spurs team to play back-to-back than this young Pacers team tonight. The Pacers have been playing very good basketball, covering the spread in 4 straight games and 6 of their last 7 while the Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5. San Antonio is 15-7 at home but only 8-13 ATS in those games. Conversely, the Pacers are just 6-17 on the road, but 13-10 ATS in those games. Indiana is 13-3 ATS off a road loss this season, winning by an average score of 106.1 to 105.3 in these spots. SA is just 7-20 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. Pound the Pacers.

3* MAC SMASH of the Week on Ohio -3.5
Ohio is 40-18 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997, 22-9 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games since 1997, and 31-13 ATS in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game since 1997. Ohio is also 13-4 ATS in home lined games over the last 2 seasons. The Bobcats have covered the spread in 4 straight lined games and are a perfect 6-0 SU and 3-0 ATS at home this season. Take Ohio.

4* NCAAB Underdog of the Week on Evansville +2
Creighton has struggled on the road this season, while the Aces have been lights out at home with an 11-1 record. Evansville beat Creighton at home by 4 points a season ago and is a much better squad than it was then. Evansville is 7-0 ATS in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 3 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 69.9 to 59.1. Evansville is also 6-0 ATS after game - where its allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less over the last 3 seasons, going on to win by 10.3 ppg in these spots. Take the Aces!

3* ESPN Prime Time Punisher on Illinois -7.5
Just as was the case with Pitt last night, I expect the Illini to also blow out there opponent returning home off a road loss. The Illini are 10-5 ATS in all lined games this season and 10-1 SU on their home court. THe Home team is a strong 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. The Fighting Illini are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. The books are giving the Illini this much respect for a reason. Lay the points.

4* Major Non-Conference Game of the Week on LA Lakers -4.5
There is no player in the NBA more competitive than Kobe Bryant and he will not let his team go down for a third straight time tonight. The Cavs have struggled on the road recently, losing 3 of their last 4 road games and they will run into a buzzsaw here. LA is the more talented team and it is playing at home where it is 20-3 this season. The Cavs have played the Lakers tough in recent years and that gives Kobe an even bigger incentive to go out tonight and show the world that he is still the best player in basketball, not LeBron. Cleveland is just 10-27 ATS in road games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half since 1996. This is a tough spot for the Cavs who are short-handed. Lay the number.

3* Big Monday Late Game Winner on Kansas -10
The Jayhawks are rolling off back-to-back blowout wins in conference play and they have another blowout win in them tonight at home. A&M left it all on the floor at home last game in a 6-point loss to Oklahoma and it is going to be very difficult for the Aggies to turn right around and compete in Lawrence tonight. KU is 11-3 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 86.7 to 63.9 in these spots. This one could get out of hand in a hurry tonight. Lay the points.

4* Major NBA Blowout of the Week on Boston Celtics -8
Boston has quietly won 4 in a row and is now ready to take it to a tired Suns team which was given all they wanted and more in Toronto Sunday. Boston is 20-2 at home and a respectable 13-9 ATS in those games. Both Stoudemire and Nash played arguably their best games of the season yesterday and will have a very difficult time playing at that same level here. Phoenix is 5-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Boston is 11-2 ATS in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 109.6 to 95.6. Pound the C's!

5* Big Monday GOTY on Pitt -8
I love Pitt in this spot tonight. The Panthers will be out for blood following their first defeat of the season and this is an inevitable letdown spot for Syracuse which played flawless against Notre Dame last time out. The Panthers have a huge advantage on the interior and I have no doubts that they take this one by double digits as they get more easy baskets inside and dominate the boards. Pitt has played its best ball against its toughest opponents, going 10-2 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) over the last 2 seasons. The Orange are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this matchup and just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. Pitt is 7-0 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots over the last 2 seasons, winning by 13.6 ppg in these spots. Lay the wood!

3* NBA Early Bird BEST BET on Bobcats +5
No one thinks the Bobcats have a chance tonight and that's just the way I like it. With 80% of the public on the Spurs, odds makers are looking to get paid with Charlotte and I'm not about to let the books collect on me. The Spurs are always overvalued against the East so it comes as no surprise that they are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. the Eastern Conference. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday games, and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, period. Bet the Bobcats!

3* Sunday NBA Smash of the Week on Thunder +1.5
The Heat just played last night and this game marks the end of a grueling 7-game road trip for them. Miami won't have enough legs to win against a hot OKC team that has won back-to-back games and 3 of its last 4. The Thunder are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games overall and therefore 22-6 ATS in their last 28 as an underdog. With the way the Thunder have played recently, they should not be the underdog in this matchup but we'll gladly take the points. The Thunder are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games, 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games playing with 1 day's rest, and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games. They are also a healthy 11-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. the Eastern Conference. The Heat have been fool's gold as a favorite at 14-37-1 ATS in their last 52 games as a favorite. Bet the Thunder at home Sunday.

4* Major Sunday NCAAB Triple System Stunner on Marist +5.5
Loyola-MD is 0-6 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons and just 2-10 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. Marist is 15-4 ATS in road games after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread since 1997. Marist takes this one outright in my opinion but we'll take the points for some insurance!

4* Major Big East Bailout (ESPN 2) on Providence +1
Providence is a better team than it is getting credit for and you'll see that in Prime Time action Saturday night. The Friars are 9-1 at home this season and off to a 3-1 start in Big East play. History supports a letdown for Marquette here and I'll have to agree. Marquette is 0-6 ATS in road games after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last 3 seasons and 1-9 ATS in road games after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games over the last 3 seasons. It's tough to win in the Big East on the road and Marquette finds that out the hard way here.

3* Big Ten BOMB on Michigan -3
Off a blowout loss at Illinois, the Wolverines strike back at home where they are 10-1 SU and 5-1 ATS this season. The Buckeyes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Wolverines are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Lay the number.

4* Major Saturday Night NBA BEST BET on Bobcats +2.5
For as talented as Portland is, it has not been a reliable road bet. The Blazers are only 10-11 SU and 8-13 ATS away from home. The Bobcats have had four days to rest and prepare for this one and I'll take them here against a road-weary Blazers squad. THe Trail Blazers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest. The Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Also, the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the points!

5* ESPN Game of the Year on Louisville -2
Pitt gets its first loss of the season Saturday in Louisville. The Cardinals will be well prepared for this one following back to back wins over ranked opponents Villanova and Notre Dame. Pitt is coming off a pair of wins over Big East bottom feeders and that's going to make it hard for the Panthers to match the intensity Louisville will be playing with from the start. Louisville's fullcourt pressure defense takes the Panthers away from pounding the ball inside to Blair as much as they would like and that gives the advantage to the Cards. The Cardinals have won four consecutive conference home games against Top 25 teams while the Panthers are just 1-7 in their last 8 conference road games against ranked opponents. The Cardinals are 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 vs. the Big East, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Saturday games, and 25-12-1 ATS in their last 38 games overall. Pound the Cards!

3* MAC MONSTER on Buffalo -4.5
Buffalo returns all 5 starters from last year's team and it shows as the Bulls are much improved. Buffalo picked up some great momentum off an upset win over Akron on the road and now it returns home where it is 3-1 ATS on the year. Buffalo is 12-3 ATS in home games off an upset win as an underdog since 1997, exploding to win in these spots by an average score of 77.1 to 68.6. Ohio is only 1-9 ATS in road games after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Ohio offense has struggled the past couple games out of the gates and that doesn't look good against a Buffalo team which has been very sound defensively at home. Remember that this Bulls team played UConn to a 4-point game. We'll lay the number.

3* Battle of Unbeatens(ABC) on Clemson -2
Clemson will stay undefeated on its home floor Saturday. It's tough to win on the road in conference play and after blowing out a good Boston College team on the road, the Demon Deacs find themselves in a letdown spot. Wake is 4-16 ATS in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) after 15 or more games since 1997, losing in these spots by an average score of 70.9 to 85.2. Wake is 6-18 ATS in road games versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots after 15+ games since 1997 while Clemson is 14-4 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. Take Clemson.

4* Major Non-Conference Game of the Week on Cavs -4.5
I know Cleveland played an overtime game last night in Chicago, but playing back-to-back has not been tough on this team as they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing with no days rest and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU loss. The loss to the Bulls, in a game where Lebron was not as his best is the key motivator here, along with the fact that the Cavs were beaten in New Orleans earlier this season. Cleveland is a perfect 19-0 at home this season and 15-4 ATS in those games. The Hornets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win, 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Eastern Conference. The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Friday games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less, and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. the Western Conference. Bet the Cavs!

5* NBA Surprise BLOWOUT on Wizards -2.5
This is the second of a home and home and I like the Wizards to return the favor to the Knicks tonight. NY has beaten the Wiz 3 times this season, by 6,5,6 points and yet the NY is still the underdog? In other words, the books don't trust a 6-14 road team laying points and neither do I. The Wizards are due in this matchup and the fact that the public is one New York makes me like this one even more. Washington is 13-2 ATS in home games after having lost 20 or more of their last 25 games since 1996 and 24-10 ATS after 6 or more consecutive losses since 1996. NY is 9-24 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons, losing these games by 9.3 ppg. The revenge factor in this one is huge tonight and I believe it produces a double digit win for the Wizards!

5* Ivy League Game of the Year on Brown -3.5
Home court is huge in the Ivy League and Brown has absolutely dominated Yale at home in this series. Yale is only 2-8 on the road this season and is just 3-8 SU and ATS at Brown since 1997. Brown is an outstanding 17-5 ATS in all games in this series since 1997. Brown is also 5-1 at home this season. The Yale Bulldogs are 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this matchup and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings at Brown. The Bulldogs are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Ivy League. The Bears are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Take Brown!

3* Pac-10 SMASH (FSN) on UCLA -11
Arizona has been blown out at Cal and at Stanford and now the Bruins will have their turn. UCLA survived a tough 3-game road trip in the Pac-10 without a loss and now it will return home even more confident tonight where it is 9-0 this season. The Bruins are 4-0 against Zona over the last 3 seasons, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record, and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 Thursday games. The Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. Lay the points.

4* Major NBA on TNT GOTM on Suns +2
The Nuggets will really miss Melo in this one and they will also miss Marcus Camby in the paint, who was dealt away in the offseason, because Shaq is playing at an extremely high level once again and that has been the difference for Phoenix recently. The Nuggets won't be able to replace Melo's 25 points tonight against a Suns team which has started to push the tempo again. Plays against favorites (DENVER) after a win by 6 points or less against an opponent after scoring 100 points or more 4 straight games are 40-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. Denver is also just 6-19 ATS versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots since 1996, losing by an average score of 105.2 to 113.5 in these spots. The Suns have no reason to look ahead to Minnesota so maximum effort will get them the win on the road tonight.

4* Major Pac-10 BAILOUT on USC +1
USC has been a much better team at home this season where it is 8-1 and I'll gladly take the Trojans at home tonight. USC has won 9 of the last 11 at home in this series. The key to USC winning tonight is Tim Floyd's defense, which is only allowing 59.8 ppg. USC is 8-0 ATS off a home loss over the last 3 seasons and 7-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons, exploding to win in each spot by double digits. This late play will get you out of any earlier jams.

5* Pac-10 Punisher of the Month on Oregon State +6.5
A big win over Stanford creates a big letdown spot for Washington State tonight. Conversely, the Beavers will be ready to get back in the win column at home following back-to-back road losses. While Washington State is still playing its patented defense, it is not doing enough offensively to win many games on the road this season. Plays against a favorite (WASHINGTON ST) - good defensive team - allowing <=64 points/game on the season, after scoring 55 points or less 4 straight games are 26-5 ATS since 1997. Washington State is 0-9 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less 2 straight games this season, losing by an average of 4.5ppg in these spots, and 0-8 ATS after playing a game where both teams score 65 points or less this season, losing by an average of 4.1 ppg in these spots. Take the Beavers!

3* NBA on TNT Prime Time TOTAL on Cavs/Bulls OVER 194.5
With Chicago playing back-to-back and Cleveland well rested, there's no way the Bulls will be able to slow down the Cavs here. The Bulls are allowing 102.9 ppg this season and 105.1 ppg when playing back-to-back this season. These teams have already played three times this season with each game going over this number. The Bulls are getting healthier and they will be up for this national TV challenge against the best in the East so I expect to see Chicago filling up the basket as well. 8 of 11 games in this matchup over the last 3 seasons have gone over the number and 4 of 5 have gone over in Chicago. The Over is 10-1 in the Bulls last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 6-1 in the Bulls last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game, and 4-0 in the Bulls last 4 games as an underdog. Bet the Over.

5* NBA Total of the Month on Lakers/Spurs UNDER 199.5
9 of the last 11 meetings in this matchup have gone under the number over the last 3 seasons. These teams have not exceeded 199 total points in any of their last 11 meetings. The Spurs play a slower paced brand of basketball with a huge emphasis on the defensive end and they always up their level of play of defense against the best competition and that's exactly what you'll see tonight. SA is 24-8 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 3 seasons, the average total in these games is 185.2 points. SA is 25-12 UNDER versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score against these teams has totaled 192.4. Take the Under.

4* Major ACC Monster BEST BET on Wake Forest -4
Since BC beat UNC, it has come back down to earth with consecutive losses. The Demon Deacs are riding high off a win against UNC but I don't see them falling into the same letdown trap here as Boston College more than fired a warning shot be beating the Heels. WF is 9-2 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. BC is 0-6 ATS after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 64.7 to 75.5. If the Eagles couldn't stop Harvard or Miami, they certainly won't be able to hold Teague and company down tonight. Lay the number.

3* Big Ten SMASH on Michigan +7.5
Illinois is being overvalued here and we're going to take advantage. Illinois is 0-7 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 10 points in these spots. Illinois is also 0-6 ATS in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) over the last 3 seasons, losing outright in these spots. Lastly, Illinois is 0-6 ATS in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 2 seasons,losing by an average score of 63.8 to 71.8. We'll take this 19-0 ATS Angle to the bank.

3* ESPN Game of the Week on Georgia Tech +11.5
The Yellow Jackets will be ready for the Dukies tonight and odds makers have given us more than enough points to cover this number as I expect to see a defensive battle. GT allows only 64.4 ppg at home and holds its opponents to only 38% shooting. Here's the key: Tech is 28-12 ATS as a home underdog or pick since 1997, losing by only 3.3 ppg on average in these spots. Take the points.

4* Major MAC Game of the Month on Kent State -6.5
Bowling Green has really struggled on the road this season and Kent State returns home after 3 straight games on the road and in a revenge spot following back-to-back losses. Kent State has won 8 of the last 11 in this series at home and is 17-6 against BG since 1997. The Falcons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games, 20-41 ATS in their last 61 vs. the Mid-American, and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Golden Flashes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. the Mid-American and 8-1 ATS after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Also, BG is 4-13 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons,losing by an average score of 58.4 to 71.8. Lay the number.

3* Big Chalk Blowout on BYU -14
The Horned Frogs will not be able to keep up with BYU's uptempo style of hoops tonight. The Cougars average 83.1 ppg at home this season while the Horned Frogs average only 67.1 ppg on the road. BYU is 6-0 ATS versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons, 9-0 ATS versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons, and 21-6 ATS in home games after having won 8 or more of their last 10 games since 1997. TCU is 0-6 ATS in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points tonight.

4* Major NBA Fade of the Week on Bobcats +7
I'm fading the Pistons here. The Bobcats are only 4-12 on the road, but they are 10-6 ATS in those games. In fact, they have only lost by more than 7 points on the road 4 times this season with 2 of those coming to a Cleveland team that is yet to lose on its home floor. While Detroit is 12-5 at home, it is only 6-11 ATS in those contests. Charlotte has already lost to the Pistons twice this season by 8 and 4 points respectively at home. It's awfully hard to beat a team 3 straight times in a season and I don't think the Pistons will get it done tonight. Charlotte is 7-0 ATS in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The Bobcats are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 while the Pistons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite period. Take the Bobcats.

5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Indiana State +2
Harry Marshall will likely be out for ISU, but that won't matter here. The Sycamores are improving quickly and are getting additional value here because of Bradley's fast start. ISU is certainly one of the toughest places to play in the Valley and it has been a nightmare for Bradley, who is 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS there since 1997. ISU returns 4 starters from a team that defeated Bradley by 10 points at home a season ago. The Home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Also, plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BRADLEY) - poor three point shooting team (<=32%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%) after 15+ games are 42-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. This is pertinent because ISU has been hurt with 3's at times this season but we won't have to worry about that tonight. With almost all of the public on the Braves, odds makers are setting Bradley backers up for a terrible blood bath tonight. Take the points.

5* Big 12 GOTM on Oklahoma -4
This is a huge revenge game for the Sooners who I think have the better team this season. Texas has won all 5 meetings over the last 3 seasons and the Sooners will be out for blood on their home floor tonight. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Longhorns are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Big 12. The Sooners are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. OU is a strong 9-0 at home this season while the Longhorns are 4-3 on the road with losses to Michigan State, Arkansas, and Notre Dame. Against good team, the Longhorns have come up short. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA) - an excellent offensive team (>=76 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after a combined score of 125 points or less are 47-20 ATS since 1997. Take the Sooners!

4* Major NBA Line Mistake of the Week on Bulls +2
The public will be all over the Blazers in this game but I like the Bulls to win outright. While the perception is that Portland is the better team, as it has the better record, the Blazers are only 8-10 SU and just 6-12 ATS on the road. The Bulls are 12-6 at home this season and have two big motivational factors in their favor tonight. First, they are coming off a double digits home loss to the worst team in the NBA, Oklahoma City. Secondly, they were crushed 116-74 in Portland back in mid-November. The Blazers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games and are only 4-17 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. Take Chicago!

3* NBA SMASH on Thunder +7.5
We have had several nice cashes on the Thunder lately and we will ride them again here. OKC is playing its best basketball of the season and while it is not showing up in the win column, it is the in ATS win column. The Thunder has covered the spread in 12 of their last 15 games and 19 of their last 25. The public has jumped on the Nets early but they are just 8-12 SU and ATS at home this season. While the Thunder are just 2-16 SU on the road, they are 13-5 ATS. OKC is 12-1 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season and 11-1 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. Take the points!

3* NBA Smash of the Week on Magic +3
Here's the major key: the Spurs are -34 against teams with winning records this season while the Magic are +43. This is because of how dominant the Magic have been on the road, compiling a 13-5 SU and ATS mark. Also, at 25-12 ATS overall, the Magic are the best covering team in the NBA. Tim Duncan still has game but the younger more athletic Dwight Howard poses major problems for him on both sides of the ball. Orlando is 11-2 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons, winning outright by an average score of 104.1 to 98.6 in these spots. Take the points.

5* ACC GOTY on Wake Forest +5
Wake is being undervalued at home against the Heels here. The Demon Deacs will be jacked up for this one and UNC won't have the same edge in terms of intimidation with a loss on their schedule. Like BC, Wake matched up very well with the Heels. Wake is unbeaten on the season at 13-0, having won all 7 of its home games. The Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Atlantic Coast Conf., 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win, and 1-8 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive games as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons. The Demon Deacons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Wake is in this one to the end with an excellent opportunity to win so I'll take the points.

4* Major MVC Game of the Month on Evansville +4
The Aces are still not getting the respect they deserve. With all 5 starters returning, they are off to an 11-3 start and should not be this big of a dog against 6-9 SIU. SIU is 2-10 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons, 4-15 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons, and 3-14 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons. SIU is also just 3-11 ATS on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons. We'll take the points.

4* Major NCAAB Letdown Game of the Week on Dartmouth +8
Off a big upset win over Boston College as a 19-point dog, the Crimson are in a major letdown spot here. Dartmouth will be jacked up for this Ivy League opener at home against a team they are 2-0 SU and ATS against at home the last 2 seasons. Home court in the Ivy League can produce huge swings. For example, Harvard won 82-56 on its home floor in this matchup last year and Dartmouth won 73-56 on its home floor. Harvard is 0-7 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons, 0-6 ATS after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons, and 0-6 ATS in road games after playing a game as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

3* ACC SMASH on FSU +9.5
The Blue Devils are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5, and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. the ACC. The Seminoles are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the ACC, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog, 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 games as a home underdog, and 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall. Odds makers have overvalued Duke again on a Saturday. What's new? Take the points.

3* Big East SMASH on Marquette -2.5
Marquette is a perfect 11-0 at home this season and I'll take the Eagles laying a small number on their home floor here. Marquette has the better team this season with 4 starters returning to WVU's two. Its great guard play gives it a big edge in this matchup. WVU lost to UConn last time out and the Mountaineers have not been very good in bounce back spots. WVU is 11-33 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less since 1997, losing by an average score of 64.8 to 69.8. The Golden Eagles are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less, and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs. the Big East. All Marquette in this one.

4* Major 23-0 ATS High Noon Annihilator on Louisville +2.5
The records don't reflect it yet, but Louisville is the better team and that will be reflected in the final Big East standings. L'ville is 6-0 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons, 27-10 ATS against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons, 10-2 ATS in road lined games over the last 2 seasons, and 12-3 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pick since 1997. Nova is 1-9 ATS in January games over the last 2 seasons, 0-9 ATS after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons, and 0-8 ATS after a combined score of 155 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

3* Friday Night NCAAB Bailout on San Francisco +1.5
San Fran would have a better record, but it has played a ton of road games in the early part of the season. This is a team which beat a Boise State team on the road that San Diego could not defeat at home. The Dons are a perfect 5-0 at home this season and are coming off a 40-point home win over Cal Hayward. That shapes up nicely for the system that we will employ here. Plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN FRANCISCO) - after a blowout win by 30 points or more against an opponent after scoring 80 points or more are 63-29 ATS since 1997. In addition, the Dons are very good defensively, allowing just 54.4 ppg at home. They have only been hurt by teams who hoist a lot of threes and they shouldn't have to worry about that tonight. SF is 9-1 ATS versus teams who attempt 14 or less 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games since 1997, winning these games by an average score of 69.5 to 61.7. Take the points.

4* Major NBA Dog of the Week on Thunder +7
Odds makers have done it again, not because they are stupid, but because the public continues to fade one of the hottest covering teams in the league. I'm referring to the fact that the Thunder have been continually overvalued recently and the result has been 8 covers in their last 10 games and 17 covers in their last 23. This one also shapes up nicely because the Rockets are coming off an emotional win over Boston and will be prone to packing it in a little early in the last game of their road trip. On the other side of things, the Thunder are coming off a terrible loss at Minnesota and we'll be playing to avenge it here. OKC is 13-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. We'll take the points.

5* ESPN Game of the Month on Cavs -4
The Cavs have had this one circled on their calendar since losing by 5 at Boston back on October 28. There is no better home team in the NBA than Cleveland, which has a 18-0 SU and 14-4 ATS record. The Cavs have also won 6 straight at home against the C's over the last 3 seasons. Including playoff games, Cleveland was a perfect 5-0 at home against Boston last season, winning by an average of 13.3 ppg in those three playoff contests. This game is all about revenge from last year's playoff defeat and all about sending a message that they are now the team to beat in the East. Cleveland will show no mercy for Boston's 2-6 skid. Cleveland is 7-0 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season, winning by an average score of 111.1 to 90.3 in these spots. Take the Cavs!

3* SMASH on Magic -5
The Magic have been dominant at home and they have been dominant as a favorite. The Magic are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Magic have also played their best ball against their toughest opponents so it comes as no surprise that they are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. While the Hawks have made major strides in recent years, they aren't ready to win on the road against elite teams and the numbers support that as they are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. I'll follow the numbers here. Lay the points.

3* SMASH on Oregon State +21
ASU is off a lost at Cal, but with Oregon on deck, the Sun Devils will get caught looking past the Beavers tonight. OSU broke a 21-game Pac-10 losing streak last time out with a big win over USC and that will give the Beavers added confidence. ASU has not had a win over OSU by 21 points or more since 1999. OSU comes in having won 5 of 6 and that is significant as Plays on Underdogs of 20 or more points after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 28-9 ATS since 1997. Take the points.

3* SMASH on UC Davis -3.5
The key here is how poorly Riverside has played on the road, with just a 2-4 SU and 1-4 ATS record. This has stemmed from an offense which averages only 50 ppg on the road. Davis averages 80 ppg at home and its more uptempo style of play will be trouble for Riverside tonight. The Aggies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Also, Riverside's coach Wooldridge is just 2-10 ATS in road games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 20% to 40%) in all games he has coached since 1997, losing by 9.4 ppg on average in these spots. Lay the number.