4* Major Sweet 16 Bailout on UNC -8.5
UNC finally got Ty Lawson back on the floor against LSU and he was a little rusty early on, but it all started clicking and the Heels won by 14. Same deal here, Gonzaga will be able to hang around for a while, but it won

5* Sweet 16 GOTY on Michigan State -1
These two teams met earlier this season with the Spartans winning 75-62. Kansas has improved since then, but so has Michigan State. The Spartans have been the much better team when playing away from home this season so they get my call here. Also, while having won it all a year ago may give the Jayhawks some confidence, it also puts a larger target on their back and that does not play to their advantage. Michigan State has won 16 of 19 games away from home this season while the Jayhawks have won just 9 of 16. While Collins and Aldrich played key roles for the Jayhawks last season, this team is still very young so Michigan State gets the advantage in terms of experience. Michigan State is 8-1 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots this season, 11-4 ATS versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% this season, 12-4 ATS in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons, 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons, and 6-0 ATS against Big 12 conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. Pound Michigan State!

3* Sweet 16 Vegas Line Mistake on Louisville -9
It

3* NBA on TNT BEST BET on Blazers -6.5
It's been a nice little winning streak for Phoenix, but now the Suns go back on the road, where they have lost 5 of their last 6, and they do so without fresh legs after playing a game last night. To make matters worse, Portland has had 2 days to rest and prepare and will be playing with revenge after losing to Philly last game. Phoenix is 11-25 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season, 6-14 ATS as an underdog this season, and 1-8 ATS in road games after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games this season. Portland is 8-0 ATS in home games after a game where both teams scored 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons and 17-6 ATS in home games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Blazers.

5* East Region GOTY on Duke -2
Now that the Wildcats have to play outside the Wachovia Center, I expect a much more vulnerable team. Simply put, it isn

4* Major Sweet 16 Underdog Shocker on Purdue +7
The public is all over No. 1 seed UConn after dominating in the first two rounds, but they

3* NIT BAILOUT on San Diego State -3
The public has fallen in love with Patty Mills and company, but that's because they don't know enough about this SDSU team. These two teams actually faced off on a neutral floor back in December with St. Mary's edging out SDSU by 3 points, but the Aztecs are a much, much better team than they were then and I'll lay the points with them on their home floor tonight. SDSU is experience with 5 starters returning from last year. The Aztecs have won 7 of their last 8, with their only loss being a 2-point setback to Utah which kept them out of the Big Dance. They just crushed K-State by 18 and have had 5 days to prepare for this one while the Gaels just played Monday. The key is SDSU's defense. St.Mary's is 3-13 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 3 seasons and 0-6 ATS when the total is 120 to 129.5 over the last 2 seasons. SDSU is 6-0 ATS in home games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season and 7-1 ATS after allowing 60 points or less 2 straight games this season. Lay the number!

4* Major NBA Total of the Week on Celtics/Magic UNDER 191.5
This head to head result could be the deciding factor in which of these teams finishes with a better record, and therefore earns home court advantage if they are to meet in the playoffs. With the stakes that high, I expect defense to take center stage in this one. The last 2 meetings in this series have been very intense defensively and the result has been total score of 170 and 165. Boston is 13-3 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season, 10-1 UNDER in road games off a home win by 10 points or more this season, and 19-5 UNDER in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Orlando is 13-3 UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season and 9-1 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games this season. Bet the Under.

5* NIT BEST BET on Notre Dame -2.5
Notre Dame has had 5 days to prepare for this one and the Irish get home court where they are 14-3 this season with all 3 losses coming to NCAA Tournament teams. This is a matchup where you will see first hand how much better the Big East is than the SEC this year. As if playing at Notre Dame isn't difficult enough, it's not going to help the Wildcats that they are coming off a highly emotional and physically draining game at Creighton the night before last. This sets up a spectacular system which tells us to play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off 2 or more consecutive home wins. This system is 27-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, this is the last home game for several Notre Dame seniors and I expect that to up their intensity even more. Lay the points.

4* Major NIT BEST BET (ESPN) on Penn State +10.5
This line reflects the hip injury to Talor Battle, but he is expected to go and Jamelle Cornley will likely go as well. Florida was good at home this season, but the Gators did not see any teams in the SEC that played defense like the Nittany Lions. This solid defense easily keeps this one within the number. The Nittany Lions are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. Simply put, Penn State is getting too many. Take the points.

5* NBA Favorite of the Year on Spurs -9
Off back-to-back home losses to Boston and Houston, the Spurs have major incentive to blow the Warriors out tonight. The Spurs were a 12-point home favorite in the first meeting this season and crushed the Warriors 123-88. I expect Tony Parker to have a huge game against the Warriors pathetic defense. The favorite is a healthy 7-0-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the home team is 18-6-1 ATS in the last 25 meetings. Also, The Warriors are just 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings in San Antonio. The Warriors are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Lay the number!

3* NIT SMASH (ESPN) on Baylor +3.5
Auburn has played great down the stretch, but so has Baylor and its wins have come against better competition. Wins over Tennessee Martin and Tulsa aren't exactly the same as wins over Georgetown and Va Tech. Its been a disappointing season for the Bears as they peaked too late, but they are making the most of it in this NIT tournament. Auburn was sensational at home against against the numbers this season, but I feel strongly that Baylor is the superior team here with more to prove. The Bears are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog of 6.5 or less and 13-4 ATS in road tournament games over the last 3 seasons. The Bears are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. We'll bet the Bears tonight.

3* NIT Bailout on St Marys -4
St. Mary's is the better team laying a small number on its home floor. The Gaels have a huge advantage on the interior, and Patty Mills, who missed so much time with that hand injury, is back and ready to show the college basketball world just how good he is. The Gaels are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or less, and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games. The Wildcats are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Lay the number.

4* Major NBA Public Massacre of the Week on Nuggets +3.5
I know the Nuggets have struggled on the road of late, but I like them to win in Phoenix tonight against a Suns team playing without Amare Stoudemire and Leandro Barbosa. Both of those players are so critical to the Suns run and gun style and without Barbosa the second unit really drags. Phoenix is 0-10 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 103.3 to 109.8. Phoenix is also 3-15 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 102.9 to 110.6. Denver gets the nod.

5* NIT Game of the Week on Creighton -1.5
Both of these teams wanted to be playing in the Big Dance and Creighton probably has the bigger beef about not getting in. The Jays' apathy showed in their first round win over Bowling Green by just 2 points as a 12-point favorite. Now that the fire of not getting in has settled a little bit, the Jays can focus on winning this tournament and you can bet that they will be jacked up here with Kentucky and Jodie Meeks stepping into the building. Kentucky has lost its last 3 true road games and has not been solid on the road all season. I'll go with a Creighton team that is 16-2 at home on the season. Kentucky is 0-8 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games this season. The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The deciding factor here will be how solid Creighton is from the 3-point line as Kentucky is 1-8 ATS in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average score of 63.8 to 77.3 in these spots. Take Creighton at home.

5* NCAA Tournament Sunday BLOWOUT on Pitt -8
Great spot to back Pitt today. This team got the wake up call of a lifetime in round one with 16 seed ETSU giving them all they wanted and more. Oklahoma State won a very emotionally draining round one game which will make it very tough to bounce back so quickly. Each time the Panthers have lost this season, they have won by at least 10 points in their very next game. Friday's game was not a loss, but I'm sure it felt similar. The Cowboys are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog while the Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. This experienced Pitt team went home in the second round a season ago and it isn't about to let that happen here. Offensive explosion from Pitt!

3* SMASH on Arizona -2.5
After a huge win over Wake Forest, this one has letdown written all over it for Cleveland State. Arizona is 11-2 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall, and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games as a favorite. This Arizona team is better than its getting credit for with this line. I'll lay the points.

4* Major Early Annihilator on Syracuse -2
The Orange are getting no respect with this line and we'll take advantage. Syracuse is 6-0 ATS versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 82.2 to 71.0. Cuse is also 6-0 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. A focused and determined Syracuse team get it done to start the day.

3* SMASH on Oklahoma -6.5
Michigan is a young team and that spells letdown in round 2 following a first round outright win as an underdog. The Sooners are the more balanced team with a huge edge on the interior. Oklahoma had a great season, but it didn't win the Big 12 regular season or tournament titles so in its mind, it hasn't won anything yet. I expect a big time performance from OU to send the Wolverines packing today. OU is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season. Michigan is 6-17 ATS when playing away from home versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. We'll lay the points.

5* 2009 NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Purdue +1.5
Purdue is rolling, having won 4 straight. This team is finally healthy and you will see a team which is much better than its No. 5 seed indicates here. Getting a mild scare in its first round game only gets Purdue more focused for this one. Washington has the home court, so to speak, with the game in Portland, but that won?t be enough of a factor for the Huskies to beat the better team. Purdue returns all 5 starters from a team that went home in the 2nd round a season ago. The experience they gained last year, and the disappointment of going home early, gets the Boilermakers into the Sweet 16. Washington is a young team, especially at the guard spots, and that is not to your benefit this time of year. I feel strongly that the odds makers are purposefully favoring the wrong team here because they know the public will back the higher seed playing close to home and coming off a more impressive win. Purdue is 15-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 68.6 to 60.6. The Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as an underdog, and 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog. On top of that, defensively, there is no comparison between these two teams as Purdue allows 10.3 less points per game than the Huskies. I?m going big on Purdue here.

4* Major Afternoon Delight on Memphis -9
The Tigers really struggled in round one, but I don't expect those struggles to continue. We'll call Northridge a wake up call for Memphis and I'm expecting a blowout here today. Maryland has had some good moments this season, but they lack the size up front to compete on the boards and I look for Memphis' pressure to really make life tough on Vazquez. The Tigers are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games overall, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. I'll back Memphis here as its performance in round one creates line value in this matchup.

4* Major NCAA Tournament BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Florida State -2.5
FSU is the hands down better team with the best player on the floor in Toney Douglas. After a sour championship game performance in the ACC Tourney, expect the Noles to be out for blood in round one. Wisconsin is 1-9 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games this season and just 1-9 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games this season. On the other side, FSU is 7-1 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. I'll lay the points here.

3* Fri Night NBA BEST BET on T-Wolves +11.5
With Houston looking ahead to its meeting with San Antonio, I expect the T-Wolves to keep this one close. Minnesota has lost to the Rockets three times this season and only one of those losses was by more than this number. The Wolves will be out for revenge. Minnesota is 8-0 ATS in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season. Houston is 0-7 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season. We'll take the points tonight.

5* NCAA TOURNAMENT 1ST RD BOMB on USC -2.5
It's not always about who you beat during the regular season, it is mostly about what have you done for me lately this time of year, and lately, USC has been one of the most dangerous teams in the country. The Eagles lost 5 of their last 9 games while a finally healthy USC squad comes in having won 5 in a row SU and ATS. I'll take the team with way more momentum on its side in this one. First off, BC is 2-10 ATS when playing away from home versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 63.5 to 77.2. Secondly, USC is 9-1 ATS after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 71.1 to 61.3. Lastly, coach Floyd is 22-5 ATS after a win by 6 points or less as the coach of USC. USC is the No. 10 seed while BC is the 7 but odds makers have accurately favored the better team here playing its best ball of the season. We'll lay the points as I look for USC to crush this number.

3* SMASH on Arizona +1.5
The Wildcats have the look of a very dangerous team in this tournament because they can play with nothing to lose. They probably didn't even think they would get in with the way they finished the season, but now that they are I have them making the most of it. The Wildcats have played their best ball this season against the best teams as they are 10-2 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 80.3 to 76.2. Take the Cats.

3* SMASH on Missouri -12.5
This line is a joke. We all know how bad Indiana was this season and Cornell lost to the Hoosiers by 15 points. Mizzou is rolling and we will take the Tigers to beat this soft line. The only way Cornell has a chance to come close to this line is if Missouri has a ton of turnovers and I don't see that happening. Missouri is 6-0 ATS after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 83.3 to 62.0. Lay the points.

3* SMASH on Dayton +9
Odds makers are giving a very good Dayton team too many points here. The Flyers defeated a Xavier team which went to the Elite Eight last season and they knocked off Marquette when it was at full strength. On a neutral floor, I expect this one to go right down to the wire so I'm taking the points. The Mountaineers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as a favorite, 5-11 ATS in their last 16 vs. Atlantic 10, and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. The Flyers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big East. Take the points.

3* Crunch Time Bailout on Western Kentucky +5
I really like the Hilltoppers to move on here against an Illinois team that has struggled outside Champagne. The Hilltoppers took down 5 seed Drake in last year's Tourney and I expect them to be dangerous once again. WKU is 16-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons and 7-0 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. WKU is 14-1 ATS in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons and 11-0 ATS in March games over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

4* Major Dog of the Day on Michigan +5.5
Clemson really struggled down the stretch, losing 4 of its last 5 games, including a very sour loss to lowly Georgia Tech in the ACC Tourney. John Beilein showed us what he can do in the Tournament when he was at WVU and now I like him to work a little first round magic here. Michigan has proven just how deadly it can be with wins over Duke and UCLA and Purdue. Outside of a one big win over Duke, the Tigers have crumbled in most big games. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite while the Wolverines are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the points.

5* NCAA Tournament 1st Round GOTY on Washington -5
Mississippi State has made a great run down the stretch to get into the tournament but this team is no Cinderella. Washington is the best team in the Pac-10 and it gets to play this game in its own backyard in Portland. While winning the SEC Tournament gives the Bulldogs a feeling of accomplishment, falling out of the Pac-10 tourney prematurely has the Huskies feeling like they haven't yet accomplished anything. That loss to Arizona State sets up a system that has been very good to backers. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 1 or more consecutive losses, when seeded 4 or higher in the NCAA tournament are 25-5 ATS since 1997. I'm laying the points!

3* NCAA Tournament Total of the Week on Radford/UNC OVER 162
With or without Ty Lawson, I expect UNC to put a lot of points on the board. The Heels still scored 79 and 70 points respectively in the ACC Tournament against much better teams than Radford without their star guard so I really feel like the Tar Heels approach the century mark in this one. By the same token Radford has proven that it can score the rock, scoring 82 or more in each of its last 4 games. The Heels really aren't too concerned about defense. They just try to outscore teams and that makes a good overs situation. In the first round of the NCAA Tourney a year ago, the Heels won 113-74 over Mount St. Mary's with the total set at 152. Odds makers have got the action they want on the under from public bettors with what seems like a big number and that only gives me an extra vote of confidence. With UNC coming in off a loss, don't expect the Heels to hold anything back. The Over is 4-0 in Tar Heels last 4 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater, 5-1 in Tar Heels last 6 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater, and 10-4 in Tar Heels last 14 overall. Bet the Over.

3* NCAA Tourney First Blood on LSU -2
Butler had a fantastic season which went far better than anyone could have expected, but the reality is that the Bulldogs are young and experience counts this time of year. I'll take a LSU team which returns 4 starters and continues to fly under the radar to crush the Bulldogs here. LSU has a big edge in terms of athletic ability and I expect the Tigers to win the turnover battle. Butler's defense doesn't force many turnover and it is 0-6 ATS after a game forcing an opponent to commit 8 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The turnover battle decides this one and LSU has the edge.

4* Major NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Oregon State +1
There's no way that Houston should be favored over Oregon State here. Oregon State has a losing record, but it plays in a stronger league. The biggest things to lack at here are how Houston will fare against Oregon State's Princeton Style offense and it's extended 1-3-1 defense and the answer is not good. The only decent team Houston has beaten on the road is UTEP. It about beat Arizona before the Wildcats started kicking things in gear but close only counts in horse shoes and hand grenades. Oregon State's frustrating style of play has produced wins over Cal, USC, Washington State, and Stanford. Houston doesn't have a resume like that. Plus, the public is backing a team that is 1-8 in its last 9 games ATS. Odds makers are laughing about that one. We'll take the Beavers.

5* Wednesday Night NBA BEST BET BLOWOUT on Oklahoma City -2
We'll take the Thunder in a great spot tonight at home and with fresh legs against a Bulls team coming off an emotional come from behind win against the Celtics last night. If you beat Boston on St. Paddy's Day, Karma will hunt you down and that's what happens to the Bulls tonight. The Thunder are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games. OKC has been one of the best covering teams in the NBA this season, especially at home. The Thunder are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 home games and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Bulls only have 10 wins against 26 losses on the road this season. The Thunder have won 6 of their last 9 games SU including their last 4 at home. OKC takes care of business.

3* NIT SMASH on Tennessee Martin +12
Auburn has covered the number in 10 of the last 11 and comes from a power conference so naturally the public is all over the Tigers. But not so fast. Martin won the Ohio Valley regular season title and has now had 12 days off to fine tune its game on both sides of the ball. You can say that Martin was crushed by Tennessee early in the season and that Auburn beat Tennessee this season, but you can also say that Auburn lost to Mercer early in the season. You have to look at how these teams are playing now and right now Tennessee Martin is not 12 points worse than an Auburn team playing in a weak major conference league. Especially when the little guy in this matchup will be far more motivated. Tennessee Martin is 16-6 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last 2 seasons and it will keep this one within single digits.

3* Public Massacre on Celtics -4.5
I liked the C's when this one opened and I'm really liking them now that is has dropped a couple points. I'm well aware of the injury problems to Boston, but the key here is that Miami really struggles on the road and that the Celtics will be hungry to get back in the win column and to avenge a loss to Miami last week. Boston is 27-6 at home this season and plays on Home teams (BOSTON) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a loss by 6 points or less are 27-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. The public has jumped ship from the Celtics bandwagon to provide exceptional value in backing the world champs. Lay the points.

4* Major NIT 1st Round BLOWOUT on Virginia Tech -7
VA Tech has shown that it can play with anyone in the country at home so a Duquesne team which was slaughtered by 20+ at Duke and at Pitt this season won't stand a chance tonight. Duquesne is 0-7 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. VA Tech is 6-0 ATS in home games when playing its 3rd game in a week over the last 3 seasons. This is significant as the Hokies are winning by an average score of 76.9 to 57.7 in these spots. We'll lay the points.

3* Magic/Cavs "TOTAL" BLOWOUT on Magic/Cavs UNDER 194
The Cavs defense has been something to behold this season, allowing only 88.4 ppg at home. With this being a revenge spot for Cleveland, which lost in Orlando back in late January, I expect that defense to really get turned up here. First off, Cleveland is 17-8 UNDER when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season. Cleveland is 10-1 UNDER in March home games over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Cavaliers last 5 home games, 12-4 in Cavaliers last 16 vs. Eastern Conference, 7-1 in Magic last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. Bet the Under!

4* Major NIT Underdog Shocker on Rhode Island +4.5
The Rams have been outstanding ATS in non-conference action at 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games. The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Top to bottom the A-10 was a better league this season and you will see that on display here. Another big key is that Rhode Island head coach Jim Baron is 12-1 against the Purple eagles in his career. Now that's having a team's number. Rhode Island has a great shot to win this one outright so we'll take the points.

5* NIT GOTY on S. Carolina -3.5
The Gamecocks have won 2 of the last 4 NIT championships. While this team had high hopes of playing in the NCAA Tourney, this tells us that we don't expect a letdown from this team because it didn't go dancing. While Curry has been a fine player again this season, the Davidson supporting cast is not as good as it was a season ago. That means all the Gamecocks will have to do is keep Curry from shooting a high percentage and this one will be in the books. SC is 16-2 at home this season with their only two losses coming to Tennessee and Clemson, which are both in the Big Dance. SC ended the season on a disappointing note with a double digit loss to eventual SEC Tourney Champ Mississippi State, but the Gamecocks are is 8-1 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Davidson is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. A more athletic South Carolina squad get the job done at home tonight. Lay the points.

5* NBA BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK on Hornets -3.5
There's been plenty of talk about the Rockets and the Jazz in the West lately, but the Hornets have quietly won 9 of their last 11. With a win tonight, New Orleans can move into second place in the NBA Southwest and that's precisely what is going to happen. Home court has dominated this series and that comes as no surprise since both teams are much better at home than they are on the road. New Orleans is 23-9 at home this season and 7-1 over its last 8 home games with that lone loss coming to Boston. During this stretch the Hornets have blowout wins over Dallas and Orlando and Orlando has proven to be one of the best road teams in the NBA. New Orleans returns home off a 4-game road trip and will be looking to erase the sour taste an 18-point defeat to the Bulls has left. New Orleans is 19-6 ATS after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons and 16-4 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Hornets are also 14-4 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons and 24-11 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. It has been like clockwork with the home team covering the last 4 in this matchup and this trend will continue tonight. Take the Hornets in a blowout.

3* Sunday NBA BEST BET on Mavs/Lakers OVER 211
Dallas is 9-1 OVER in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score in these spots totals 218.1 points. The Over is also 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. The Over gets the call here.

3* Big Ten Championship Game BEST BET on Purdue -6
There's no question about the talent of the Buckeyes, but they are young and I expect a big letdown after an emotional win over No. 1 seed Michigan State. It is clear how badly Purdue wants this Big Ten Tourney title and nothing will stand in its way. Purdue was a 9.5-point favorite at home in the last meeting this season and crushed the Buckeyes by 25. This game will have a home court feel for the Boilers playing in front of a lot of their faithful. Purdue is now 15-4 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

5* ACC Tournament GOTY on FSU +6
FSU is hitting on all cylinders right now and will look to finish the job against Duke. The Seminoles lost by just 3 points at Duke 12 days ago and will be out to avenge that loss here. Duke hasn't blown anyone out in over a month so this line is definitely inflated. Knocking off UNC and Duke to win the highest rated RPI conference will do wonders for FSU's tourney seed so that is a huge motivator here. The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog, 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 6.5 or less, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as an underdog. Also, the Seminoles are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 vs. Atlantic Coast. The Blue Devils are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 10-22 ATS in their last 32 neutral site games as a favorite, and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Bet FSU!

3* SWAC Championship Game on Alabama State -2.5
Condensed Writeup to get these out to you ASAP. There will be lots of Bama State fans in Birmingham for this one and the home court fan base will give the Hornets a nice edge. In addition, Jackson State defeated the Hornets by 3 points in the last meeting this season so this will be a revenge spot for Bama State. We're looking at a Jackson State team that is just 9-14 when playing away from home this season and this one will feel like a true road game with all the Hornets in the house.. I'm laying the points.

3* Big East Conf. Tourney Championship Game (ESPN) on Louisville -6
Condensed writeup to get these out to you ASAP. This is where tired legs finally catch up with the Orange. This will be their 4th game in 4 days and they have played 7 OT periods in their last 2 games. I took Cuse yesterday as they were still getting a good adrenaline rush but this is where the crash comes against a Louisville team that will pressure the heck out of the the Orange full court. Jonny Flynn has particularly logged big minutes the last 2 games and I expect him to experience some turnover trouble today. Lay the points.

3* Saturday Night NBA BEST BET on Spurs/Rockets UNDER 184
In 2 meetings this season, we've seen these 2 teams put up totals of 152 and 187. In the game where 187 points were scored, the Spurs allowed the Rockets to score over 100 points and there's no way that happens here. This matchup is always a physical defensive game so it comes as no surprise that 8 of the L10 games have gone under the number the last 3 seasons. Looking back even further, the Under is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings. The odds makers have designated a point total range here that usually always gets the public on the over, but the numbers indicate that that is the wrong call. The Spurs are 15-5 UNDER in road games where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points over the last 2 seasons and the Rockets are 10-1 UNDER in home game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points over the last 2 seasons. What will really magnify the intensity of this matchup is the fact that Houston pulled even with the Spurs in the win column with last night's win over Charlotte. The last thing to keep in mind is that both of these teams are similar in that they step up their defense more than anything else in big games and the result has been an unders machine. The UNDER is 20-6 in the Rockets last 26 vs. a team with a winning SU record and 17-5 in the Spurs last 22 vs. a team with a winning SU record. Bet the Under.

4* MAC Championship Game BEST BET (ESPN 2) on Buffalo +2.5
Condensed writeup to get these out to you ASAP. Odds makers have the wrong team favored here. The Bulls did not play well down the home stretch but they have shown in this tournament that they truly are the best team in the league. Buffalo lost at home by 5 points back on Feb. 26 in the last regular season matchup and that brings the revenge factor into this one. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games and we'll take the points here.

5* Big Ten Conference Tournament GOTY on Purdue -3.5
Condensed Writeup to get these out to you ASAP. The Boilermakers want this Big Ten Tourney championship bad after they had a disappointing regular season by their standards. This is a team which expected to contend more closely for the Big Ten regular season title but was slowed by injuries. The key here is that Purdue lost both regular season games to Illinois and the last one was an 18-point embarrassment. The Boilermakers will be out for blood in front a home court fan base here. Lay the points.

3* Friday Night BAILOUT on Golden State +1
The Warriors are a team which has Dallas' number at home because the Mavs cannot match Golden State's pace for an entire game. In fact, Golden State is 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS at home against Dallas the last 3 seasons. In all, the Warriors have won 10 of the last 14 meetings the last 3 seasons. What will really have Golden State head hunting here is that fact that Dallas put a 117-93 whooping on the Warriors last time they faced off. Golden State is 13-4 ATS in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. Take the Warriors!

4* Major Big East Tourney BOMB on Syracuse +6.5
The Cuse just played a 6 OT thriller last night, and while the public will likely be looking for a letdown after such a game, I just can't see in happening. While a game like that has to produce some fatigue, these are 18-22 year old kids who have only played a 30-some game season with usually just 2 games a week. Young kids can bounce back the next day much better than NBA players do when they play back to back. I know this is the third game in 3 days for the Orange, but heart and a home court fan base will get them through. Cuse won by 13 in this matchup at home during the regular season and bring a 6-0 SU and ATS winning streak into this one. Cuse is now 21-9 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick since 1997 and 15-5 ATS in road games off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1997. Take the points!

3* SMASH (ESPN 2) on Duke -10
Duke is coming off a loss against UNC to end the season and gets a team that beat them by 6 points during the regular season. The Blue Devils will be out for blood in this one. The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Another key factor here is that is line has earned public support on Boston College, which was the intent of the odds makers. We'll go against the grain and take the hungry Blue Devils.

5* Conference Tournament Blowout of the Year on Purdue -7
Off back-to-back losses to end the season, expect Purdue to steamroll the Nittany Lions in front of a basically home crowd. It was a disappointing season for the Boilers as injuries played a part in not achieving a conference title, but they can make up for it by winning this tournament. Purdue believes it is a Final Four caliber team and winning the Big Ten Tournament could have it looking at a No. 3 seed, which would only help it get there. Purdue lost by 11 points in its last game of the season against Michigan State and is 9-0 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 16.7 ppg in these spots. The Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Lay the number as Purdue earns a double digit victory!

4* Major Friday Night NBA BEST BET on Bobcats +1.5
Houston has really struggled on the road this season, especially of late, losing 5 of their last 7. With a big game against the Spurs up next, I expect the red hot Bobcats, winners of 6 of their last 7, to catch the Rockets looking past them tonight. The Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take Charlotte!

4* Major NBA on TNT Total of the Year on Cavs/Suns UNDER 219
The Suns have been scoring tons of points under their new coach and that has taken this number way too high. Cleveland is one of the premier defensive teams in the NBA, allowing just 92.3 ppg on the road this season. When these teams met last month, the Cavs held the Suns to just 92 points. Good defenses have been able to slow down Phoenix as just recently the Magic and Spurs have held it under the century mark. One major thing to consider is that the Under is 6-0 in the Suns last 6 games as a home underdog. Lastly, plays under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 35-12 since 1996. Bet the Under!

3* SMASH on USC +1.5
I like the Trojans in their own backyard against the Bears tonight. USC opened as a 2-point favorite and the public has now bet the Bears into the favorite role. I feel the odds makers initial line favoring the Trojans was the right call and I will back them here. The key is USC's defense as Cal is just 1-7 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 66.6 to 73.0. USC beat Cal at home as a 5-point favorite earlier this season and with a largely home crowd at Staples Center, I like the Trojans to do it again. The Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as an underdog and we'll take the points.

5* MWC Tournament GOTY on UNLV -4
The Rebels just lost at SDSU last game to end the regular season and I like them to bounce back strong here with home court on their side in the quarterfinal round of the MWC Tourney. What makes this play even stronger is that the Rebels lost at home by 2 points in the first meeting with SDSU this season to set up an double revenge situation. UNLV is 17-6 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent since 1997, 11-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons, and 13-4 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 73.3 to 62.9. Lay the points.

4* Major Conf. Tourney Afternoon Delight on Buffalo +1.5
Buffalo is the most talented team in this conference and I like the Bulls to win this one outright. The Bulls hit a little rough patch late in the season but with an NCAA Tourney berth on the line, they will be focused and ready to go. Kent is 1-7 ATS versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 69.6 to 76.0. Kent is also 2-8 ATS when playing away from home against a team with a winning record this season, losing in these spots by average of 10.0 ppg. This is a Buffalo team which nearly beat UConn. We'll take the most talented team in the MAC here. Buffalo outright.

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Knicks/Pistons UNDER 206.5
Plain and simple. The Under is a perfect 10-0 for Detroit when revenging a straight up loss as a favorite this season. The average total score in these contests is 176.5 points. The Knicks defeated the Pistons 104-92 in the last meeting and Detroit will take that very personally here. With NY having just played last night, the Knicks won't have enough legs to take this one over against one of the best defensive teams in the NBA in a revenge spot.

4* Major NBA Public Massacre of the Month on Hawks -2
I cashed in with the Jazz last night with my Public Opinion Game of the Week, but now it's time to fade away with the Jazz playing back-to-back against an athletic Hawks team which will be out to avenge a blowout loss at Utah a couple weeks back. With 12 straight in the win column, the target on Utah's back is huge and I fully expect the Hawks to knock it off. The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. The Hawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. The Favorite is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Lay the number.

5* 2009 Conference Tournament GOTY on Duquesne -2
Duquesne won at UMass 94-77 during the regular season and will blow this line out of the water tonight. UMass won its last 2 games, with its last one being an upset win over Rhode Island or this line would easily be 5 points. Duquesne is a team capable of making a run to the finals as it is one of the few conference teams which defeated Xavier and played the likes of Rhode Island and Temple very tough. The Rhode Island Rams beat the Dukes by 2 points late in conference play and they are waiting for Duquesne in the second round. The Dukes would like nothing more than to pay the Rams back and they won't let a disappointing UMass team stand in their way. With Duquesne ending the season on a sour note, with a poor performance against Dayton, I look for that loss to get the Dukes playing with an even larger sense of urgency and focus tonight. UMass is 1-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season, losing by an average of 10.7 ppg in these spots. The Dukes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. This one is a major mismatch. Lay the points!

4* Major Blowout of the Tournament on Seton Hall -5
Seton Hall covered the number in 8 of its last 10 games and 12 of its last 16. You'll be hard pressed to find a team better against the number down the stretch. This is a confident team and one that believes it can pull off a couple upsets in this tournament. The Pirates certainly won't let USF stand in the way of round 2. Seton Hall is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in all matchups with the Bulls over the last 3 seasons, which includes a 15-point blowout win this year. The Bulls are a terrible 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less and 0-5 ATS in all in the last 5 meetings in this matchup. Lay the points!

5* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on Knicks +3.5
This is a great spot for the Knicks tonight as they have endured 3 straight setbacks to the Bucks this season and will be out for revenge. All of those wins for Milwaukee came before Christmas. The Bucks have since endured some critical injuries that have slowed their early winning ways considerably. The Bucks are just 3-7 SU and ATS in their last 10 games. While the Knicks are just 7-22 on the road SU, they are 16-12 ATS and I really like them to win this one outright in this triple revenge spot. NY is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season, winning by 3.0 ppg in these spots, so I'm not worried about fatigue. NY is also 18-6 ATS revenging a home blowout loss vs. an opponent of 20 points or more since 1996, winning these games outright by 1.5 points on average. Lastly, Milwaukee is 8-25 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 6.1 points in these spots. Fade the Bucks!

3* NBA Public Opinion Game of the Week on Utah -3
We've seen what good health can do for the Jazz as they have rattled off 11 straight and 14 of their last 15. While Utah's road record is just 12-17 on the season, I don't think it's too far of a stretch to say it would be better than .500 if the Jazz had been healthy all year long. The Jazz have won 4 of the last 5 in this series and with Mike Dunleavy out for sure and with leading scorer Danny Granger expected to miss as well, the Pacers won't have enough fire power to compete in this one. The Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Take Utah!

5* WCC Tournament Championship Game BEST BET (ESPN)on St. Mary's +7
Plain and simple, the Gaels are getting too many points. St. Mary's lost by 7 points at Gonzaga in a game where Patty Mills did not play the second half. Then, it lost by just 2 points at home in a game where star guard Mills didn't play at all. Mills got his feet wet against a good Portland team last night. After making some first half mistakes, he looked pretty much like his old self in the second half and I expect him to be even better tonight. This one is on a neutral floor and with St. Mary's maybe needing this win to ensure that they will be dancing (plenty still have them on the bubble), I like the Gaels to give the Zags all they want and more. This is a better St. Mary's team now because of Mills' injury as it has forced other guys to step up in his absence. The Gaels are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings, including 2-0 this season. The Gaels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. Bet St. Mary's!

4* Major NBA Vegas Line Mistake of the Week on Magic/Pistons UNDER 187
Detroit knows it can't get in a shootout with the Magic. The Pistons will rely on solid halfcourt defense and a slower tempo at home tonight and that game plan is very conducive of an unders situation here. In the first two meetings this season, we've seen these teams score 170 and 178 total points respectively. One thing we have come to count on is Detroit playing its best defense against the best teams and the result has been an unders machine. Detroit is 18-6 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 2 seasons. The average combined score in these games totaled just 181. 2 points. Detroit is 9-1 UNDER in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score totaling just 175.7 points in these spots. Bet the Under.

3* SMASH on Pistons +2
Great spot for the Pistons with the Magic coming off a big road win over the Celtics yesterday. That puts the Magic in an inevitable letdown spot against a team which has had its number. Detroit is 16-3 against the Magic over the last 3 seasons and 9-1 at home during that span as Detroit's tough defense has gotten the best of the Magic. Detroit has a 6-point win at home and an 8-point win on the road this season over Orlando and it will be ready to strike again after going down to the Hawks last game. The public is on the Magic, right where odds makers want them to be, but Mr. Joe Public is failing to take into account how well the Pistons are playing right now. Allen Iverson has been out of the lineup for Detroit and the Pistons have regained their chemistry. Plays on home teams after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 55-25 ATS since 1996. Bet Detroit.

4* Major Sunday Night NBA BEST BET BAILOUT on Denver Nuggets -7
The Nuggets are in a tight race in the Northwest Division, just a half game in front of Utah and Portland. The Nuggets have struggled on the road recently, but I don't see those struggles taking place today against a team they have dominated. Denver has won 118-85 at Sacramento and 118-99 at home in this season's meetings, making it quite clear that the Kings don't have the offensive fire power to keep up. Off a loss to division rival Utah, the Nuggets have heavy motivation to win here to keep the top spot in the division. Sacramento is 5-14 ATS as a home underdog this season,losing by an average score of 98.1 to 109.6 in these spots. The road team is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5, 27-7-1 ATS in their last 35 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Lay the points.

5* Sun Belt Conf. Tournament GOTY on Denver +7.5
Denver played Little Rock to a 9-point game during the regular season, but that LR team still had leading scorer Steven Moore still in the lineup. Moore has been booted of the team and you can expect an even better effort today from a Pioneers team vying for an automatic bid to the big dance. Denver has been one of the very best dogs in the country at 11-4 ATS as an underdog this season and even better on a neutral floor - 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as an underdog. Denver is also 11-3 ATS revenging a loss vs. an opponent this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 61.9 to 58.1. The Trojans are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Denver covers this one easily with a great shot at winning outright.

3* NBA Total of the Week on Suns/Spurs UNDER 219.5
Odds makers have been forced to post a high number here by the Suns recent totals, but this game is at San Antonio and the Spurs will look to enforce their half court, slow down style of play. With Steve Nash and Grany Hill both banged up for Phoenix, the Suns' transition game will not be running at full strength today. Plays under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 35-9 since 1996.

4* Major Saturday Night NBA BEST BET BLOWOUT on Cavs -9.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. The Cavs won't feel sorry for themselves after losing to Boston, they'll get right back on the horse and take it to the Heat tonight. Expect a huge game from LeBron, who struggled last night against the Celtics. Here's the nuts: Cleveland is 11-0 ATS off a road loss this season, winning by an average score of 103.7 to 86.2 in these spots. Lay the number.

3* SMASH on UCF -10
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. This is a big revenge spot for UCF who lost at E. Carolina 75-89 a month ago. That was UCF's first loss against the Pirates in 10 games dating back to 1997. I'll take UCF to bounce back strong against the Pirates today. ECU is 2-11 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons, getting crushed by an average score of 60.8 to 75.8. Lay the number.

4* Major NCAAB Underdog Shocker on Wyoming +4.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Wyoming was crushed 57-86 at New Mexico a month ago and yet the Cowboys are just 4.5 point dogs? Exactly, New Mexico is way better on its home floor than it is on the road and Wyoming will be out for major revenge after taking a beating like that. Wyoming has won 9 of the last 10 at home in this matchup and 13 of 15 at home this season. The Home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Every line tells a story and this one tells us to take Wyoming.

5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Iowa State -3.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. I absolutely love the Cyclones in this last home game spot as they are 12-6 at home on the season and teams tend to play at another level in their last home game. We certainly saw this with Texas Tech in its last home game when it crushed Kansas by 19. That win sets the Red Raiders up for a huge letdown here against a hungry ISU team that will have revenge on its mind after losing by 12 at Texas Tech a couple weeks back. Texas Tech is 0-10 in true road games this season. The Favorite is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Cyclones are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or less. The Red Raiders are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or less. Pound the Cyclones!

3* SMASH on Tulane +25
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. First off, I don't think Tulane deserves to be catching this many points today no matter what, but especially not against a Memphis team with no reason to run up the score. Tulane comes in having won 3 in a row and will give the Tigers their best shot as every team in the conference attempts to do. Plays against favorites of 10 or more points after 8 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) are 42-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. Tulane keeps this one within the number.

5* WCC Tournament GOTY on Pepperdine +5.5
I love Pepperdine catching this many points tonight. Pepperdine did lose its last 4 games, but 3 of those losses came to the league's 3 best teams (Portland, Gonzaga, St. Mary's). Its last loss of the season came to San Francisco by 8 points. That was a revenge game for the Dons which were defeated at home by Pepperdine earlier this season. With Pepperdine losing its last game against the Dons, now it holds the revenge angle again. First off, the Underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Dons are a poor 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. The Waves are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog and 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games following an ATS loss. The Waves are being undervalued here and we'll look to take advantage just like we did in a similar situation that saw Indiana State win outright as a dog last night.

4* Major Friday Night NBA BEST BET on Timberwolves +15.5
The Lakers have already defeated the Wolves 3 times this season. The most they have won by is 13 points with the latest win coming by just 3 points in a game where the Lakers just coasted back on February 22nd. Blowing out Minnesota is not high on the Lakers list tonight as they head into a big 3-game road trip with Portland, Houston, and San Antonio next. The biggest thing for the Lakers at this point is to keep Kobe Bryant and the starters fresh so I anticipate seeing a lot of the bench in this one. The Wolves were embarrassed brutally at Golden State last time out and they know they will need to step up their play so they aren't embarrassed like that tonight. While Minnesota is just 10-19 on the road this season, it is 18-11 ATS in those games as it has been continually undervalued. The Timberwolves are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Lakers are 19-40 ATS in their last 59 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Timberwolves are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles. Take Minnesota.

3* SMASH on Jazz -9
The Jazz are on fire and will be ready to destroy the Nuggets tonight. The Utah is playing the best ball of any team in the division right now as it is now healthy and this will be a statement game for the Jazz. What fuels Utah's fire even more is that they were defeated at Denver 117-97 in the last meeting. With revenge on the mind against a Nuggets team which just played last night, I look for the Jazz to roll. Utah has won 22 of the last 25 in this series at home and it takes on a Nuggets team which is 0-4 SU and ATS its last 4 on the road. Melo busted out with a big 38-point effort as to show George Karl and everyone else that he needs to be in the lineup but all that performance did was drain him emotionally and I see him having a very mediocre game tonight. Denver is just 6-18 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Utah is 15-5 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Jazz are winning by double digits on average in both of these spots. Can't see Utah winning by less than 14 in this statement game.

3* SMASH on Nets +9
The Nets are playing good basketball, having won 3 of their last 5 SU and all 5 ATS. They took Boston right down to the wire 2 nights ago and I like them to be even more competitive against the Magic tonight. This is a look ahead spot for the Magic as they go to Boston next while this is a revenge spot for the Nets who were defeated 101-84 here as a 13-point underdog a month ago. The public is on the Magic and that is the wrong place to be in this spot. While NJ is just 14-15 on the road this season, it is 18-11 ATS. The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Off a big win over the Suns and with Boston up next, the Magic won't bring their A-game tonight.

3* NBA Northwest Division GOTW (TNT) on Nuggets -5
The Blazers have struggled on the road all season long and are just 1-5 in their last 6 road contests. Denver returns home after back-to-back road losses and will be very motivated to bury the Blazers here as Portland is now just a half game back in the standings. Denver is 22-7 at home this season and a strong 7-2 in division play. Portland just played last night and had to use a lot of energy to come back from a double digit deficit against Indiana. The Trail Blazers are 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Denver and 9-23-1 ATS in the last 33 meetings overall. The Trail Blazers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 road games, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog. The Nuggets are 26-7-1 ATS in their last 34 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the Nuggets.

4* Major Big West GOTM on CS Northridge +1.5
Too much is at stake for Northridge to lose this game as a loss could end up costing the Matadors a conference title and top seed in the conference tourney. Davis gave Northridge a scare at Northridge earlier this season so I don't expect the Matadors to be overlooking Davis here. It appears the public has gotten wind of Northridge missing a couple players, but this is a deep team and it won't matter tonight because of the interior advantage it has with Tremaine Townsend. The Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Matadors are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Northridge wins this one outright.

5* Atlantic 10 GOTY on Xavier -10
This is a revenge game for Xavier, which lost to Dayton by 13 points on the road earlier this season. What makes this revenge spot even better is that it is Xavier's last home game and teams tend to really up their level of play in these spots. In addition, Xavier will be motivated by needing this one to keep their conference lead as Rhode Island is a half game back and Dayton is just a game back in the standings. Xavier is a perfect 11-0 at home versus Dayton since 1997 and embarrassed the Flyers by 26 as an 11-point favorite a season ago. Dayton has struggled on the road, losing its last 3. The Favorite is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings and the Flyers are 3-8 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Xavier. The Musketeers are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall and we'll take them in this highly motivated spot tonight.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Hornets -6
This is Dallas' 4th game in 5 nights and it just won a highly emotional game against the Spurs last night. The Mavs aren't going to have enough left in the tank here. Plus, Dallas is 0-4 SU and ATS in its last 4 road games. New Orleans is red hot having won 5 in a row and I think this team is really clicking right now. Don't be surprised if the Hornets make a nice run to end the season. The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win, and 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 Thursday games. The favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Lay the points.

3* Conference Tourney Line Mistake on Indiana State +3
The entire world is on Drake tonight and that's just where the books want it. Drake beat ISU earlier in the season, but ISU won the final meeting by 12 points as it won 6 of its last 7 games. Drake has really crumbled down the stretch losing 10 of its final 14 games. Drake is 0-6 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 20% to 40%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons and 0-9 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons. The Sycamores were not healthy for a good portion of the season and are just now hitting their stride. I think the books have the wrong team favored tonight.

5* NBA Blowout of the Year on Jazz -8.5
You don't want to take on the Jazz on their home floor without fresh legs and that's exactly what the Rockets will have to do tonight. Also, each of the first 2 meetings this season were Rockets wins in Houston so I expect the now healthy Jazz to really be out to send a message tonight. Houston has lost 4 of its last 5 road games SU and ATS to the likes of the Knicks, Grizzlies, Bucks, and Bulls so playing the red hot Jazz on the road does not figure to treat them well. The Jazz are an incredible 57-25-2 ATS in their last 84 games as a home favorite. They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. This is the type of game where the Rockets will miss Tracy McGrady as the Jazz have too much star power going against the Rockets tonight. The rout is on!

4* Major NCAAB Public Massacre of the Week on Houston +7.5
The public is all over Memphis today and that is going to get them burned. UAB was catching just 4.5 points at home against Memphis and this Houston team crushed the Blazers by 19 this season. Plain and simple, the Cougars are catching too many. This is like the Super Bowl for Houston and I expect the Cougars to leave it all out on the floor. The Tigers are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5. Another key here is that Houston's recent lack of success ATS has elevated this line. Houston is 20-6 ATS after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread since 1997, losing by just .5 ppg in these spots on average. Take the points in a close one!

4* Major NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Knicks pk
The Knicks have posed major problems for the Hawks this season and are 2-0 ATS as a result with an 8-point win here in late January. Atlanta's offense has really struggled of late and that does not bode well for the Hawks either as the Knicks have been scoring at will. You might be thinking revenge, but Atlanta is just 11-24 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average score of 88.0 to 99.1 in these spots. The biggest thing that will kill the Hawks tonight is NY's ability to knock down threes. Atlanta is 4-16 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, losing these contests by an average score of 93.1 to 105.9. This line is a gift and we'll take it.

3* NCAAB Public Opinion Game of the Week on Wake Forest -1.5
The public likes Wake here and I have to agree. Maryland has been playing strong ball down the stretch but Wake is proposes lots of mismatch problems because of its length against an undersized Maryland squad. The Deacs have struggled away from home in ACC play, but they will not take the Terps lightly tonight after seeing them knock off UNC. Another thing to Wake's benefit is that it has had an extra day to prepare for this one while the Terps just played Sunday. Maryland is 0-6 ATS when playing their 2nd game in 3 days over the last 3 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 61.7 to 75.0. The Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings and the Terrapins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 6.5 or less. Take Wake!

4* Major NBA BEST BET BLOWOUT on Houston Rockets -8
The Raptors would like to bounce back tonight after back-to-back double digit defeats in the first 2 games of this 3-game road trip, but I just don't see it happening against a Rockets team which has won 9 in a row at home. The Rockets are 24-6 at home on the season, winning those games by an average of 8.7 ppg. They'll easily beat their average against one of the coldest teams in the NBA tonight as the Rockets have outscored opponents by an average of 14.5 points during the nine-game winning streak at home. Toronto crushed Houston 94-73 back in January and the Rockets will be out to avenge that loss. The Raptors are 6-22-1 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Lay the number!

4* Major NCAAB Total of the Week on Georgetown/St. John's UNDER 131
Neither of these teams put high powered offenses on the floor. I expect this one to go well under the number in a bloody battle. 4 straight games in this series have gone under with no more than 120 points being scored in any of those matchups. St. John's is 7-1 UNDER in home games against conference opponents this season and Georgetown is 10-2 UNDER as a road favorite or pick over the last 2 seasons. Georgetown is also 8-1 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. Take the Under!

5* NCAAB Big Chalk BLOWOUT OF THE MONTH on Clemson -14.5
I absolutely love the Tigers in this spot tonight. This is the final home game for the Tigers and you can bet they will be jacked up, especially after dropping back-to-back games. In addition, the Tigers lost to lowly Virginia on the road back in January so they will be out for revenge here. Clemson is an even better team than it was a season ago when it crushed Virginia 82-51 on the road, and the Cavs are far worse. Clemson is winning its home games by an average of 17.6 ppg this season and this one will be far worse than that. Lay the number!

3* NBA BEST BET on Thunder +5
We'll take the Thunder in a great spot tonight. First off, the Thunder just took the Mavs to OT last Friday before losing by 2. So that gives OKC some extra incentive to win here. Secondly, the Mavs will be far more worried about their next game against a Spurs team that just crushed them 93-76 last week. And to prove that the last meeting between these teams was no fluke, OKC played the Mavs to a 4-point game in Dallas back in December as well. The Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Thunder are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games, 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog, and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest. The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. Bet the Thunder!

4* Major NCAAB Public Massacre on Elon +14.5
This is the last regular season game for Elon and with Davidson in town, you can expect these boys to treat it like the Super Bowl. Elon lost by just 15 at Davidson in mid-January and I like it to feed off of the crowd to give the Wildcats a scare tonight. The Wildcats are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 13.0 or greater and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Phoenix are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (ELON) - off an upset loss as a favorite, playing their 2nd game in 3 days are 88-35 ATS since 1997. Take the points!

5* ESPN Big Monday Game of the Month on Notre Dame -3
Notre Dame is 7-9 in Big East play this season and has 2 remaining games in conference play to get to .500. This is the one the Irish really need though as it fits into the category of a quality win. A loss here ensures Notre Dame a losing mark in the Big East and likely kisses its Big Dance hopes goodbye outside winning the conference tourney. The Irish are 11-2 at home this season and 47-2 in their last 49 home games. Notre Dame has won 4 of its last 6 with one of those losses coming at UConn in a game where the Irish went right down to the wire with the Big East front runner. The tournament takes notice of teams playing their best ball down the stretch, so again this is a huge game for ND. Nova has not played well of late, barely escaping lowly DePaul and losing to Georgetown. The Wildcats are now just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this matchup. The Fighting Irish are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of 6.5 or less. Bet ND at home in this desperation spot.

3* Sunday Night Bailout on Oregon -1.5
It's been a terribly disappointing season for the Ducks, but they come into this one with momentum for the first time all season in the Pac-10 as they picked up their first Pac-10 win last time out. This is the final home game for the Ducks and the only things that would sweeten up this season is a big win over rival Oregon State. Oregon played the Beavers to a 3-point game on the road and will now look to have its revenge. Oregon has won 11 straight at home in this series dating back to 1997 and I don't see the Ducks laying down even more a minute here against a team they have dominated. Oregon State is 0-6 ATS in March games over the last 3 seasons, 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games vs. a team with a losing SU record, and 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Ducks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games. Take Oregon at home.

4* Major Sunday NBA BEST BET on Nets +4
The Hornets have lost 4 straight ATS and 7 of their last 9, yet the public is still all over them here and that has the books licking their chops. It's been a struggle for the Hornets on the road of late and it will be a struggle for them today as Chris Paul will not be able to have his way with the very quick Devin Harris guarding him and going at him. The Hornets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing SU record, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Nets are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog of 4.5 or less points, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or less, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games. Take the points.

5* National TV BOMB (CBS) on Michigan State +1
With Illinois breathing down Michigan State's neck in the Big Ten standings, expect the Spartans to send the Illini and the Boilermakers, who are tied with the Illini in 2nd place, a message with a big win this afternoon. Michigan State is the hands down better team and coming off a very lackluster performance against Iowa so it will be charged up for the Illini today. Michigan State has been at its best on the road at 8-1 in true road games. It is 6-0 ATS in road games versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% this season while Illinois is 0-7 ATS in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last 2 seasons. The Fighting Illini are also just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 while the Spartans are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Izzo has his boys ready to roll today. Take MSU!

3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Jazz -16
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. This looks like a lot of points to lay at first glance and that's exactly what the books want the public to think. When you look closer, you see a red hot Jazz team, which has won 6 in a row SU and ATS, playing the lowly Kings on 3 days rest. The Kings just played last night and they will not have nearly enough left in the tank to compete here. The last time the Kings won and then played the next night happened a week ago. They beat Memphis and then lost by 21 at Dallas. Jazz win this one by 20 easily. Lay the number!

3* SMASH on Cal +2.5
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Cal is 16-1 at home this season and it is looking for revenge against a UCLA team that clubbed the Bears 81-66 a month ago. I like Cal to win this one as UCLA has dropped 3 of its last 4 road games. Cal is 7-0 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Bet the Bears.

5* 2009 NCAAB GAME OF THE YEAR on Vandy -1
Condensed writeup due to amount of games to handicap. Off back to back road losses, the dores return home to get back in the win column against an SC team they'll also be looking to gain revenge against. Vandy has won 2 straight at home in this series the last 3 seasons and 4 of the last 5 meetings overall. A big emotional blowout win over Kentucky puts the Gamecocks in a letdown spot. Vandy is 12-4 at home this season while SC has really struggled away from home, just 2-4 L6 SEC road games. The Gamecocks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 6.5 or less. The Commodores are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. I'll back Vandy all the way to the bank with my largest wager of the year.