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Basketball Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
02-12-12	Wisc-Milwaukee v. Wright State +2.5	Top	46-70	Win	100	8 h 27 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET on Wright State +2.5 Hungry to end a 3-game skid, and further fueled by an embarrassing 20-point loss at UW-Milwaukee last month, expect Wright State to continue its home dominance in the series Sunday afternoon. The Raiders have won 6 in a row at home against the Panthers with those 6 wins coming by an average of 12.0 points. The Raiders are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. It's also worth noting that Wright State is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games following an upset loss at home. The Panthers have lost 5 of their last 6 on the road and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. Take Wright State.
02-11-12	Los Angeles Clippers v. Charlotte Bobcats +10.5		111-86	Loss	-110	12 h 36 m	Show
4* NBA BEST BET on Bobcats +10.5 The Clippers are gassed. This will be their 2nd game in as many nights and their 7th already this month. I don't think they'll have enough left in the tank to put away a Charlotte team that has only played 4 games this month. The Bobcats were flat out embarrassed by Chicago last night, and that loss provides all the motivation they need to bounce back strong. Charlotte has either won or lost by 10 points or less in 13 of the last 14 in this series. Also, plays on underdogs of 10 or more points after scoring 80 points or less last game, provided they are facing an opponent that checks in off a game in which 160 total points or less were scored, are 22-4 ATS since 1996. Teams in this situation have been underdogs of 11.8 points on average but have only lost by an average of 4.8. Bet the Bobcats.
02-11-12	Valparaiso v. Youngstown State		53-71	Win	100	12 h 3 m	Show
4* NCAAB Letdown Game of the Week on Youngstown State pk Off a big upset win at Cleveland State, expect Valpo to fall flat on its face this evening. Youngstown State has been no pushover in the Horizon League at 8-6 and it has been strong at home at 7-3. Still, I expect the Crusaders to get caught overlooking a team they defeated by 14 last month and 14 straight times overall. In addition, Valpo is expected to be without Kevin Van Wijk, who is second on the team with 14.5 points and 5.2 rebounds. He was huge in the first meeting, leading the Crusaders with 23 points. The team will really miss his presence. Valpo is 2-10 ATS in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average score of 74.3 to 65.0 in this situation. Take Youngstown.
02-11-12	Duquesne v. St Bonaventure -5.5	Top	48-69	Win	100	9 h 38 m	Show
5* Atlantic 10 Game of the Year on St. Bonaventure -5.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road and an embarrassing 14-point defeat at Duquesne on Jan. 7, expect St. Bonaventure to roll at home this afternoon. The Bonnies have rattled off 7 straight home wins with those coming by an average of 18.9 points. It is also worth noting that each of those victories came by a minimum of 8 points. St. Bonnie has also won 3 in a row at home over the Dukes with those wins coming by an average of 8.7 points. The Bonnies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. The Dukes are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Lay the points.
02-10-12	Dallas Mavericks -2 v. Minnesota Timberwolves	Top	104-97	Win	100	11 h 40 m	Show
5* NBA Friday Night Feast on Mavs -2 The Mavs had won 18 of 19 against the T-Wolves from Jan. 2006-March 2011 while outscoring them by an average of 9.6 points before losing the first 2 meetings this season. They had also won 9 in a row at the Target Center before a 99-82 loss Jan. 1. Motivated by those 2 defeats, expect the reigning NBA champs to rise to the occasion this evening. This is a great spot for Dallas considering it is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games when out for revenge for a loss of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. It is winning by an average score of 104.4 to 95.9 in this situation. The Mavericks are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 road games while the Timberwolves are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Minnesota, and the road team is 21-5 ATS in the last 26 meetings. We'll bet Dallas in this revenge spot.
02-10-12	New Jersey Nets v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 188.5		92-109	Loss	-110	10 h 4 m	Show
4* NBA Total of the Week on Nets/Pistons Under 188.5 We saw just 191 total points scored when these two faced off Wednesday and Detroit shot a season-high 53.4 percent - just the 3rd time all season it's made 50% or more of its shots in a game. I don't see shots falling as easily for Detroit tonight as New Jersey really tightens the screws defensively, and this one should find its way under the number as a result. We also find that New Jersey made 10 3-pointers Wednesday, so you can bet the Pistons will be looking to do a better job of defending the 3-point line. The Under is 5-0 in the Nets' last 5 road games vs. all teams with a losing home record. With odds makers listing the total lower than what these teams just scored, they are clearly begging for action on the over. We won't bite. Take the Under.
02-09-12	San Diego v. Pepperdine -1.5		70-57	Loss	-105	12 h 31 m	Show
3* NCAAB CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT on Pepperdine -1.5 The San Diego Toreros have been one of the worst investments in recent years at 21-44-1 ATS in their last 66 games overall. They are even 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400 and 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that San Diego is 0-7 ATS since the beginning of last season when listed at +3 to -3, losing these contests by an average of 9.3 points. The fact Pepperdine is favored against a team it lost to by 9 points last month is a good sign. After all, the Waves are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and the home team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Also, the Toreros are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings at Pepperdine. Take the Waves.
02-09-12	Houston Rockets v. Phoenix Suns -3.5	Top	96-89	Loss	-104	11 h 6 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Suns -3.5 Phoenix is playing its best basketball of the season and has won 3 in a row as a result. It is playing with a lot of confidence right now and will be hungry to avenge Friday's embarrassing 18-point loss at Houston. This is a difficult spot for the Rockets, who just played and won in Portland last night. I don't think they'll give a team they just smoked enough focus as a result. Plus, Houston is expected to be without starting guard Kyle Lowry. Don't expect the offense to run as smoothly without the team's assist leader on the floor. The Suns are 4-0 in their last 4 at home in this series with those wins coming by an average of 6.5 points. Also, the Rockets are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog, 7-22 ATS in the last 29 meetings in this series and 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Phoenix. Take the Suns.
02-09-12	Denver v. Florida Atlantic +1		71-72	Win	100	10 h 37 m	Show
4* Sun Belt Conference Game of the Week on Florida Atlantic +1 This is a major letdown spot for Denver following Saturday's big 15-point win over Middle Tennessee. Consider that Denver is 0-8 ATS in road games after a win by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons, losing these games by an average of 6.2 points. In addition, the Pioneers are 0-8 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less or pickem over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average of 11.0 points in this situation (note: I included this trend because the Pioneers are currently a pickem at most books). Denver is also 0-6 ATS in road games in February over the last 2 seasons and 0-8 ATS in road games after having lost 2 of its last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and we'll side with the Owls at home tonight.
02-08-12	South Carolina +7 v. Tennessee		57-69	Loss	-101	10 h 18 m	Show
4* NCAAB BEST BET on South Carolina +7 Off back-to-back games against the league's best (Florida and Kentucky), South Carolina will be primed for a showdown with a Tennessee team it wants badly. The Gamecocks return 4 starters who suffered 4 and 6-point losses to the Vols last season. Those narrow defeats will be the driving force behind an inspired performance tonight. South Carolina is a little bit better than its record might lead you to believe. It's just 1-7 in conference play but 5 of those losses came to Florida, Kentucky and Vandy. The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this matchup. It is also worth noting the Gamecocks are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Tennessee. Take the points.
02-08-12	Indiana Pacers v. Atlanta Hawks -3	Top	87-97	Win	100	10 h 46 m	Show
5* NBA Game of the Week on Hawks -3 Off 3 straight losses and having already fallen to Indiana this season, Atlanta will be lacking no motivation tonight. Plus, it bodes well for us that the Pacers just played last night. The Pacers are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 games when playing without a day of rest and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. Also, Indiana is 4-14 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days since the beginning of last season. It has lost these games by an average of 10.6 points. In addition, the Hawks have won 8 in a row at home in this series by 16, 12, 14, 4, 11, 10, 14 and 15 points - an average margin of 12.0 points. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and the Pacers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Atlanta. We'll take the Hawks.
02-07-12	Phoenix Suns v. Milwaukee Bucks -7	Top	107-105	Loss	-108	11 h 47 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Bucks -7 The Bucks have lost back-to-back games since a 3-game winning streak that included wins over the Lakers and Heat. Motivated by those losses, and a 16-point defeat in Phoenix last month, expect them to bounce back strong tonight. Consider that Milwaukee is 19-8 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. The Bucks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Suns are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Bucks have had 2 full days of rest and preparation while the Suns just played last night. We'll bet the Bucks.
02-06-12	San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies -1.5		89-84	Loss	-103	11 h 38 m	Show
4* NBA BEST BET on Grizzlies -1.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road and a pair of losses to San Antonio this season, expect Memphis to bounce back strong at home tonight. The Grizzlies have been at their best at home where they have won 7 of 10 games. The Spurs, meanwhile, have struggled on the road, losing 8 of 11. It is also worth noting that they have dropped 5 of their last 6 at Memphis with those five losses coming by an average of 10.4 points. The fact the Grizzlies played yesterday is of no concern. We're talking about a team that is 21-4 ATS since the beginning of last season when playing on back-to-back days. It has won by an average score of 100.1 to 96.7 in this situation. Also, the Grizzlies are 17-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons, 25-10 ATS when out for revenge for a same season loss over the last 2 seasons, 19-8 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. an opponent - over the last 2 seasons and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Spurs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games, 2-10-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Memphis. Take the Grizzlies.
02-06-12	Missouri v. Oklahoma +5	Top	71-68	Win	100	9 h 27 m	Show
5* Big 12 Game of the Month on Oklahoma +5 Motivated by back-to-back defeats and an embarrassing 38-point loss at Missouri on Jan. 3, expect Oklahoma to leave it all on the floor tonight. This is a difficult spot for Mizzou, which is coming off an emotional victory over Kansas and has a big showdown with Baylor up next. As you might recall, the Tigers came out flat and lost by 7 points at Oklahoma State following a 1-point win over Baylor last month. I expect a similar letdown here following such a big win over the Jayhawks. Mizzou has won 2 of its last 3 on the road but both of those wins came by a single point. It's typically been tough sledding on the road in terms of the point spread for the Tigers, who are 18-40-1 ATS in their last 59 road games. It is also worth noting that the road team is 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. The Sooners have won 5 of the last 7 at home in the series and neither of those 2 defeats came by more than 4 points. Take Oklahoma.
02-04-12	Buffalo v. Toledo +5	Top	72-65	Loss	-110	14 h 18 m	Show
5* MAC Game of the Year on Toledo +5 Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by 4 straight losses in the series, I like Toledo's chances of pulling off this upset. Buffalo has not been the same team on the road, where it has lost 4 of its last 6. It is worth noting that just one of those 2 wins in this stretch came by more than 2 points, and that was against a Northern Illinois squad that's 2-18. The Bulls have certainly struggled at Toledo, where they have lost 6 of the last 7 meetings by an average score of 78.0 to 63.0. The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 and 12-4 ATS in the last 16 overall meetings. It should also be noted that the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Toledo is 9-1 ATS in home games after 2 straight games of allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher since 1997. Buffalo is 1-9 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. It is also 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Witherspoon after allowing 60 points or less 3 straight games. It's losing by an average of 4.0 points in this spot. Take Toledo.
02-04-12	Middle Tenn. St. v. Denver -1.5		60-75	Win	100	10 h 7 m	Show
4* Sun Belt SMASH (ESPN2) on Denver -1.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, expect Denver to know the target off MTSU's back in its return home Saturday. Denver is a terrific 10-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons. It is also 7-0 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons when matched up against good teams that outscore their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. We also can't ignore the fact that coach Joe Scott's clubs are 7-0 ATS all-time in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%). Denver doesn't take many bad shots and shoots a high percentage because of it. This bodes well for us considering MTSU is just 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games versus very good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or more. The Blue Raiders have lost to these foes by an average score of 77.1 to 62.7. Take Denver.
02-04-12	Arkansas v. LSU -3.5		65-71	Win	100	9 h 34 m	Show
4* SEC Game of the Week on LSU -3.5 Off 3 straight losses to arguably the 3 best teams in the SEC (Florida, Mississippi St., Kentucky), expect LSU to take out its frustrations on an Arkansas squad that is 0-6 away from home on the season. The Razorbacks haven't just lost those 6 games, they've lost them by a whopping 12.4 points on average. Arkansas' road struggles extend further back than this season. The Razorbacks are 2-12 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons, 15-37 ATS in their last 52 road games and 24-53-2 ATS in their last 79 games as a road underdog. Arkansas' recent 82-point effort in a win over Vandy suggests a letdown as well. It was the first time the Razors broke the 70-point mark in 7 games, and they are 0-6 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons. It is also of the utmost importance to note that the home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll lay the points.
02-03-12	Memphis Grizzlies +9 v. Oklahoma City Thunder		94-101	Win	100	11 h 36 m	Show
4* NBA SMASH on Grizzlies +9 After narrow losses of 3 and 5 points in the season's first 2 meetings, Memphis won't be lacking any confidence as it looks to spoil Oklahoma City's 5-game home winning streak. The Grizzlies have regained their swagger with back-to-back wins over solid Denver and Atlanta squads, and I expect no letdown against a team they want badly. This will be Memphis' 5th game in 7 days, but history tells us not to be concerned. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a road win by 10 points or more, a team playing their 5th game in 7 days, are 13-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, Memphis is an incredible 20-4 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average of 3.8 points. We'll take the points.
02-03-12	Washington Wizards v. Toronto Raptors -4.5	Top	89-106	Win	100	9 h 14 m	Show
5* NBA FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST on Raptors -4.5 Motivated by back-to-back embarrassing losses to Atlanta and Boston, and further fueled by a 15-point loss at Washington last month, expect Toronto to turn in an inspired performance tonight. The home team has been the play in this series of late. It won each of the last 6 meetings. Toronto has won its 3 at home during this span by 5, 19 and 9 points. The Raptors also fit into an extremely profitable wagering situation. Consider that plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, provided they are checking in off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, are 24-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 5.8 points and have won by an average of 13.1. In addition, Washington is 0-10 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by an average of 13.7 points. Take Toronto.
02-02-12	Portland Trail Blazers v. Sacramento Kings +3.5		92-95	Win	100	13 h 45 m	Show
4* NBA BEST BET on Kings +3.5 Back home, hungry to snap a 5-game losing streak, and further fueled by a pair of losses in Portland this season, look for the Kings to take care of business tonight. The Blazers are not the same team on the road, where they are 3-8 SU and ATS this season. Dating back to last season, the Trail Blazers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Kings have played well in their last 2 games, losing at both Utah and Golden State by 3 points. Expect their strong play to continue tonight at home, where I like their chances of pulling the upset.
02-02-12	Arizona St v. Stanford -14.5	Top	44-68	Win	100	12 h 17 m	Show
5* NCAAB Blowout Game of the Week on Stanford -14.5 Motivated by 3 consecutive losses on the road, expect Stanford to roll in its return home tonight. Arizona State has really struggled on the road in Pac-12 play where it has losses of 17, 17, 15 and 21 to Arizona, UCLA, Colorado and Utah respectively. The Sun Devils are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games. In addition, ASU is 0-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive Overs this season, 0-7 ATS after playing 2 consecutive home games this season and 0-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Stanford is 11-1 on its home floor where it is winning by an average of 14.9 points. I like it to roll by 20-plus in this motivated spot against a poor road team. We'll lay the points.
02-02-12	Nebraska v. Northwestern -6.5		74-84	Win	100	10 h 31 m	Show
4* Big Ten SMASH (ESPN2) on Northwestern -6.5 Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, expect Northwestern to take care of business at home tonight. The Wildcats are 8-3 at home, where they are winning by an average of 8.4 points. They have a 7-point home win over Michigan State, who defeated Nebraska by 13 points in Lincoln. The road has not been kind to Nebraska under the watch of Doc Sadler. The Huskers are just 22-38 ATS in road lined games with him at the helm, losing them by an average of 8.2 points. While Northwestern's rebounding has been an issue at times this season, we shouldn't worry here. That's because Nebraska is 0-8 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams that are outrebounded by their opponents by 4 or more per game under Sadler. The Cornhuskers are also 8-19-2 ATS in their last 29 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less. It must also be mentioned that Northwestern is 9-2 ATS under coach Carmody in home games after a close loss by 3 points or less. We'll lay the number.
02-01-12	St. Bonaventure v. St. Louis -10.5		62-86	Win	100	9 h 15 m	Show
4* NCAAB Blowout on St. Louis -10.5 After a big win at Xavier last Wednesday, St. Louis endured a letdown Saturday at UMass and was handed a 72-59 defeat. Motivated by that loss, and back home where they have been nearly unstoppable, expect the Billikens to take care of business tonight. St. Louis is 10-1 at home this season (6-1 ATS in home lined games) where it is winning by an average of 20.6 points. And, the Billikens will draw further motivation from St. Bonaventure being ahead of them in the standings and the Bonnies winning the most recent meeting last February. The fact St. Bonaventure has a losing road record is significant because the Billikens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. St. Louis is the more talented team, and I won't hesitate to lay the points in this extremely motivated spot.
02-01-12	Toronto Raptors +9.5 v. Boston Celtics	Top	64-100	Loss	-105	9 h 3 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Raptors +9.5 Motivated by Tuesday's embarrassing 100-77 loss to Atlanta, and further motivated by a 96-73 loss in Boston on Jan. 18, expect the Raptors to give the Celtics a game this evening. The fact Boston played last night also is very important. The aging Celtics won't be able to bounce back as well physically as the more youthful Raptors. Consider that the Celtics are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games when playing without a day of rest and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Celtics are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take Toronto and the points.
01-31-12	New Jersey Nets +9.5 v. Indiana Pacers	Top	99-106	Win	100	10 h 48 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Nets +9.5 The Nets had won back-to-back games on the road over Philadelphia and Cleveland before laying an egg at home against Toronto Sunday. Motivated by that loss, and a loss to Indiana on Jan. 2, expect the Nets to give the Pacers a game tonight. Indiana won the season's first meeting by 14 points but hit 13 of 21 from 3-point range in that game. Considering the Pacers are only averaging 4 3-point makes on 12 attempts per game, I don't see them going off from deep again. New Jersey has quietly won 2 of its last 3 and 4 of its last 7. It's a better team than it was when it saw Indiana in early January, and I believe we'll see that tonight. The Nets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Pacers, meanwhile, are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Also, the road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the points.
01-31-12	Michigan State v. Illinois +2.5		41-42	Win	100	10 h 31 m	Show
4* Big Ten SMASH (ESPN) on Illinois +2.5 Motivated by 3 straight narrow defeats, expect Illinois to come out on top tonight at home, where it is 11-1 on the season. Michigan State is a quality team but hasn't looked nearly as dominant away from home, where it has lost its last 2 to Northwestern and Michigan. Illinois' last 3 losses have come by 5 points or less and the 5-point loss (at Minnesota) came in OT. The fact Illinois played Missouri to a 4-point game and defeated Ohio State (2 of the best teams in the country) tells me it can certainly win tonight's contest. Illinois has won its last 2 SU and ATS at home in this series. It is also 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 at home against the Spartans. The Spartans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or less and 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings with Illinois. Lastly, Illinois is 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Weber when checking into a game off 3 straight losses against conference rivals. The Illini have won by an average score of 68.3 to 57.8 in this situation. Take Illinois.
01-30-12	New Orleans Hornets +13 v. Miami Heat		95-109	Loss	-110	10 h 11 m	Show
3* NBA Super System Smoker on Hornets +13 It's going to be tough for the Heat to get up for this game following such a big win over the Bulls Sunday. The Hornets, meanwhile, will have no trouble getting up for the defending Eastern Conference Champs, especially following Sunday's disappointing performance against the Hawks. History is on our side here as plays against home favorites of 10 or more points, provided they are a very good team that outscores their opponents by 6 or more points/game and are coming off a win by 6 points or less, are 40-17 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have been favored by an average of 12.0 points but are only winning by an average of 9.1 in this situation. It is also worth noting that the Heat are just 11-23 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points under coach Spoelstra. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 11.0 points or more. The Hornets are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or more points, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Hornets are also 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 in this series and 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Miami. Take the points.
01-30-12	Orlando Magic +7.5 v. Philadelphia 76ers	Top	69-74	Win	100	9 h 14 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Magic +7.5 Off 3 straight losses, including back-to-back blowout defeats, expect the Orlando Magic to take out their frustrations on a team they have owned. The Magic have won 3 in a row and 10 of the last 11 in this series. They have even won 6 straight in Philadelphia. In addition, teams coached by Stan Van Gundy are an impressive 13-3 ATS following a blowout loss by 20 points or more. His teams are winning by an average of 5.3 points in this situation. It is also worth noting that the Magic are 26-10-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. They are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series and 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia. Also, the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. We'll take the points.
01-30-12	Pittsburgh v. West Virginia -6		72-66	Loss	-110	9 h 24 m	Show
4* Big East SMASH (ESPN) on West Virginia -6 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road and further fueled by a 3-game losing Streak to Pitt, expect the Mountaineers to take care of business at home tonight. This is a good situation for WVU considering plays on a favorite off a close road loss by 3 points or less, playing their 2nd game in 3 days, are 73-34 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 5.5 points but are winning by an average of 8.5. It is also worth noting that WVU is 15-5 ATS off a road loss to a conference rival under coach Huggins. It's winning by an average of 12.8 points in this situation. The Mountaineers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games, 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. We'll lay the points.
01-29-12	Los Angeles Clippers v. Denver Nuggets -6		109-105	Loss	-108	12 h 44 m	Show
3* NBA SMASH on Nuggets -6 The Clippers have struggled away from home as one might expect considering all their new pieces. Since a season-opening win at Golden State, they've lost 4 straight on the road by an average of 16.8 points. Denver has won 6 in a row and is 7-2 at home, where it has an impressive 11-point win over the mighty Miami Heat. If it can conquer the Heat by double digits, it can certainly cover this number. The Nuggets have been a fantastic investment at 14-5 SU and ATS on the season. Looking back, they are 37-12-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall. They're 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 home games and 17-5-2 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Clippers are 21-50 ATS in their last 71 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. We'll lay the points.
01-29-12	Manhattan v. Niagara +3		87-70	Loss	-103	8 h 26 m	Show
4* Sunday NCAAB BEST BET on Niagara +3 Off back-to-back defeats, with one of those defeats being a 7-point setback at Manhattan, Niagara will be lacking no motivation this afternoon. It will be lacking no confidence either. The Purple Eagles are 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Jaspers, including 5-0 SU and ATS at home during this span where they have won by 7, 24, 19, 17 and 11 points for an average winning margin of 15.6 points. Niagara has quietly covered the spread in 7 of its last 9 games, and the fact it is coming off an ATS loss actually bodes well for us. The Purple Eagles are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Jaspers are just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Take Niagara.
01-28-12	Columbia v. Cornell -3.5		60-65	Win	100	12 h 60 m	Show
3* Saturday Night SMASH on Cornell -3.5 Cornell is better than its 6-11 record leads you to believe. It's played 9 of its first 17 games on the road and has tackled pretty challenging schedule with 3 games against teams from major conferences. Columbia has played just 7 true road games and only one school from a major conference. The Lions won the season's first meeting by 5 points at home a week ago, but I expect the Big Red to have their revenge. Cornell is 6-2 at home this season and has won 10 of its last 14 at home in this series. The Lions are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. the Ivy League, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games following three or more consecutive home games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. The Big Red are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games following an ATS loss. The favorite is also 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Lay the points.
01-28-12	San Diego St v. Colorado St +3		60-77	Win	100	9 h 31 m	Show
4* NCAAB Upset of the Day on Colorado State +3 Off back-to-back losses on the road, expect the Colorado State Rams to be upset-minded when they take the floor at home this afternoon. San Diego State has won 9 straight in the series, but the Rams have been no pushover lately, playing the Aztecs to within 1 and 2 points in 2 of the last 3 meetings. The Rams lost by just 2 points in last season's home meeting against a better San Diego State team than they'll see today. Colorado State has been money when the line is tight, going 10-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. It's also a perfect 7-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. The Rams are 9-1 at home this season, and I believe they have what it takes to end SDSU's 11-game winning streak.
01-28-12	Wofford v. College of Charleston -5	Top	68-59	Loss	-110	8 h 39 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET on Charleston -5 Motivated by 3 consecutive losses and a 17-point loss at Wofford on Jan. 5, expect an inspired effort from College of Charleston this afternoon. The Cougars have won 9 in a row at home in this series with those 9 wins coming by an average of 8.9 points. Besides home-court advantage, revenge is another key angle. Consider that Charleston is 11-3 ATS all-time under coach Cremins when out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponents. The Cougars have won these games by an average of 7.7 points. Take Charleston.
01-27-12	Toronto Raptors v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 199	Top	81-96	Win	100	10 h 19 m	Show
5* NBA Total of the Week on Raptors/Nuggets Under 199 Denver is the highest scoring team in the NBA but it won't be the same high-octane team with without point guard Ty Lawson, who is expected to miss with an ankle injury. The Nuggets won't get as much in transition without their tempo-pusher. Toronto is among the lowest scoring teams in the league, and it will especially have difficulty piling up points tonight with leading scorer Andrea Bargnani expected to miss with a calf injury. Plays Under on all teams (Denver in this case) when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points that have gone over the total by more than 6 points in four consecutive games, with a winning record on the season, are 45-19 since 1996. We have only seen an average of 189.3 total points scored in this situation. It is also worth noting that this system is 7-2 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Under is 16-7-1 in the Raptors' last 24 overall and 7-2 in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 11.0 points or more. The Under is also 5-1 in the Nuggets' last 6 games as a home favorite. Take the Under.
01-27-12	New York Knicks +11 v. Miami Heat		89-99	Win	100	9 h 56 m	Show
3* NBA SMASH on Knicks +11 The season has not started out the way the Knicks had envisioned, but a win over the Heat would go a long way toward righting the ship. I expect them to give Miami a game as they try to make a major statement with a win. Historically speaking, this is a good spot to back the Knicks. Consider that plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points - cold team failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10 and an extremely tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days - are 47-20 ATS since 1996. This system is 9-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Knicks are an incredible 26-10 ATS as a road underdog since the beginning of last season. Plus, they are a perfect 14-0 ATS when playing their 3rd road game in 4 days under coach D'Antoni. We'll take the points. *Note: Carmelo Anthony is out tonight but this is still a play. The Knicks are showing value as a double-digit dog as teams often elevate their play in the absence of a star.
01-26-12	Washington v. Arizona St +8	Top	60-54	Win	100	11 h 5 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET on Arizona State +8 Arizona State has played 10 home games this season and has either won or lost by 8 points or less in all but one of them. The exception was a 9-point loss to Oregon. Washington has played 6 games away from home. It's 1-5 in those games and its lone win came by just 4 points against a Utah team with a worse overall record than the Sun Devils. The fact ASU is coming off back-to-back double-digit losses is extremely important. Consider that the Sun Devils are 8-0 ATS all-time under coach Sendek after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more. They are winning outright by an average score of 64.4 to 62.5 in this situation. It is also important to note that the Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog while the Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. We'll take the points.
01-26-12	Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic -8		91-83	Loss	-110	10 h 21 m	Show
4* NBA on TNT SMASH on Magic -8 This game is all about revenge for the Magic, who were embarrassed with a 31-point loss in Boston Monday. The Magic showed their disgust with that performance Tuesday when they crushed Indiana 102-83. Now, they get a chance to pay back the Celtics, and I don't expect them to squander the opportunity. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out to avenge a road loss to an opponent, provided that foe is coming off a home win or 20 points or more, are 35-12 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 10.9 points. It is also worth noting that Boston is just 1-10 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Plus, the home team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 in this series. We'll lay the points.
01-25-12	Portland Trail Blazers v. Golden State Warriors -3.5	Top	93-101	Win	100	13 h 30 m	Show
5* NBA Game of the Week on Warriors -3.5 The Warriors will be lacking no motivation here following 3 straight defeats, including back-to-back heartbreaking losses at home by 3 points and 1 point respectively. A motivated effort should translate into a comfortable win versus a Portland squad that has lost 5 of its last 7 on the road and is playing its 3rd game in as many days. The Trail Blazers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. The Trail Blazers are also 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series and 1-11 ATS in the last 12 meetings at Golden State. We'll lay the points.
01-25-12	Dayton v. St. Joseph's -4		63-77	Win	100	9 h 13 m	Show
4* Atlantic 10 Annihilator on St. Joseph's -4 St. Joe's finally returns home after 3 straight on the road, and it will be extremely hungry after going winless in those games. The Hawks will also be fueled by consecutive losses in this series. St. Joe's has been one tough cookie at home, where it is 8-1 with an average winning margin of 12.9 points. And these wins haven't just come against slouches. The Hawks have an impressive 9-point win against 15th-ranked Creighton and a 16-point victory over a Villanova team with Big East talent. The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. Take St. Joseph's.
01-25-12	Delaware v. Northeastern -5.5	Top	61-62	Loss	-110	9 h 20 m	Show
5* Colonial Athletic Association Game of the Year on Northeastern -5.5 This is a game Northeastern has had circled since last season when it lost both regular season meetings with Delaware as well as a heart-breaking 2-point loss in the conference tournament. 4 starters return from last year's squad so you can bet the Huskies will be hungry. Delaware has struggled away from home to the tune of 2-7. It has also struggled at Northeastern, where it has lost 5 of the last 6 meetings. In addition, history suggests this is not the time to get behind Delaware. Consider that the Hens are 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Ross when checking in off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. Delaware is losing by an average of 13.7 points in this situation. Lay the points.
01-24-12	Orlando Magic +3.5 v. Indiana Pacers		102-83	Win	100	9 h 48 m	Show
4* NBA SMASH on Magic +3.5 Orlando will relish the opportunity to get right back on the court tonight after setting franchise lows for points, field goals (16) and field goal percentage (24.6) in an 87-56 loss at Boston Monday. It hasn't been wise to doubt Stan Van Gundy's teams after a blowout loss of 20 points or more as they are 12-2 ATS all-time in these spots with an average winning margin of 6.2 points. Plus, the Pacers have had no answer for Dwight Howard and company. Orlando has won 5 in a row against Indiana by an average of 13.6 points. The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss, 25-9-1 ATS in their last 35 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Take the points.
01-24-12	Tennessee v. Vanderbilt -8.5	Top	47-65	Win	100	9 h 18 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET on Vanderbilt -8.5 Vandy saw its 8-game winning streak come to an end over the weekend with a 1-point loss to Mississippi State. Motivated by that defeat, and further fueled by consecutive losses to Tennessee, expect the Commodores to bounce back in a big way. Prior to Saturday's loss, Vandy had won its first 4 conference contests over Auburn, S. Carolina, Georgia and Alabama by 30, 10, 11 and 10 points respectively. If you were wondering how odds makers could possibly be giving Tennessee this many points, now you know. Plus, the Vols are 0-5 in true road games this season. The Volunteers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Commodores are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. We'll lay the number.
01-23-12	Memphis Grizzlies v. Golden State Warriors -1.5	Top	91-90	Loss	-105	13 h 13 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Warriors -1.5 Off back-to-back losses, the Warriors will leave it all on the floor to get back in the win column tonight. Memphis hasn't had much luck at Golden State, where it has dropped 3 in a row and 7 of its last 9. Its last 3 road defeats in this series have come by an average of 10.7 points. The road hasn't treated the Grizzlies well. They are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Plus, the road team is just 1-6 ATS in the last 7 matchups between these two. The fact the Warriors have had a couple days to rest is also important considering they are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Take Golden State.
01-23-12	Iona v. Siena +9.5		62-65	Win	100	9 h 29 m	Show
4* NCAAB SMASH on Siena +9.5 Back home, motivated by consecutive losses on the road and out to avenge an embarrassing 36-point defeat to Iona earlier this month, expect an inspired effort from Siena to lead to a cover tonight. Home court has been kind to the Saints in this series. In fact, they've won 5 straight and 10 of their last 11 at home against the Gaels. The Gaels are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win, 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after a win by 15 points or more. Also, the Saints are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games. We'll take the points.
01-21-12	Air Force +14.5 v. San Diego St	Top	44-57	Win	100	15 h 50 m	Show
5* NCAAB BEST BET on Air Force +14.5 This is a major letdown spot for San Diego State following a big win at New Mexico. Air Force has played the Aztecs to 13 and 12-point games in the last 2 meetings, and I believe it keeps this one even closer. The Falcons are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 13.0 points or more, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games as a dog of 13.0 or more points and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games. The Falcons have proven themselves to be an outstanding wager against elite competition, going 10-1 ATS in road games when matched up against top-level teams (Win Pct. > 80%) under coach Reynolds. We'll take the points.
01-21-12	Syracuse v. Notre Dame +9		58-67	Win	100	11 h 13 m	Show
4* Big East SMASH (ESPN) on Notre Dame +9 The Irish have one of the best home courts in the country. They have won 29 of their last 30 at home with that loss coming last Saturday to UConn. You can bet the Irish will be jacked up to face the No. 1 team in the land, and to do so at home, where they haven
01-21-12	Alabama +11 v. Kentucky		71-77	Win	100	4 h 26 m	Show
4* SEC SMASH (CBS) on Alabama +11 Kentucky has been overvalued all season, as evidenced by its 5-13 ATS mark in lined games, and that remains the case here. The Wildcats have especially been overvalued following a big win, checking in at just 2-8 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season. They have also been extremely overvalued on Saturday's, when they receive the most betting attention. They are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games. They are also 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Bama defeated Kentucky in last year's regular-season meeting, and I like it to give the Wildcats all they want and more here.
01-20-12	Atlanta Hawks v. Philadelphia 76ers -5.5	Top	76-90	Win	100	10 h 44 m	Show
5* NBA Friday Night Feast on 76ers -5.5 Not having Al Horford in the lineup is a big deal tonight as he was the key to Atlanta's 2 wins over the 76ers last season. He combined for 35 points and 25 rebounds in those victories. The Hawks lost the game he sat out last season by 34 points. They also lost the game in which he only scored eight points on 4-of-12 shooting. Without Horford down low, the Hawks won't have an answer for Elton Brand. The 76ers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Philly is also 8-0 ATS when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season, winning by an average score of 101.3 to 85.3 in this situation. Lay the points.
01-20-12	Wisc-Milwaukee v. Youngstown State +3.5		66-68	Win	100	9 h 29 m	Show
4* NCAAB Friday Night SMASH on Youngstown State +3.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, and further fueled by a 4-game losing streak against Wisconsin-Milwaukee, expect Youngstown State to play inspired basketball at home tonight. Wisconsin-Milwaukee's numbers drop off on the road as it is averaging 5.0 less points and allowing 4.3 more points away from home. This doesn't bode well for the Panthers, considering Youngstown State is a strong 5-1 at home this season. The Panthers have lost 4 of their last 5 on the road and the lone win during this stretch came by just 2 points. The Panthers are 2-5-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Penguins are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Also, Wisconsin-Milwaukee is 0-6 ATS in a road game when the total is 129.5 or less over the last 2 seasons. It's losing these contests by an average score of 63.4 to 51.4. Take the points.
01-19-12	Dallas Mavericks +2.5 v. Utah Jazz		94-91	Win	100	11 h 6 m	Show
4* NBA BEST BET (TNT) on Mavericks +2.5 Motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect the reigning NBA champs to get back in the win column tonight against a team they have dominated. The Mavs went 4-0 SU and ATS versus Utah last season with wins of 12, 6, 19 and 17 points. The Mavericks have been a terrific investment at 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall. They are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 as a road underdog, including 22-6 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less during this span. They have won these games outright on average by a score of 95.6 to 94.5. It is also worth noting that Dallas is 20-6 ATS in road games following an upset loss under coach Carlisle. It has responded to win by an average score of 102 to 95.5 in this situation. Take the Mavs.
01-19-12	UCLA v. Oregon State -2		84-87	Win	100	11 h 48 m	Show
3* Pac-12 Bailout on Oregon State -2 Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats and a 13-game losing streak to UCLA, expect Oregon State to leave it all on the floor tonight. This is a good spot for the Beavers, considering they are 13-5 ATS all-time under coach Robinson after 3 or more consecutive losses. In addition, they are 8-1 ATS in home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 3 seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 77.5 to 64. The Beavers are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games vs. a team with a winning record and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Bruins are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less. We'll take Oregon State.
01-19-12	California +1 v. Washington		69-66	Win	100	9 h 49 m	Show
4* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Cal +1 This is a game Cal had circled entering the season as Washington won both of last year's meetings by 21 and 32 points respectively. The Golden Bears return 4 starters who remember those beatings well, and I expect them to do something about it tonight. The total paints a picture of how odds makers expect a game to go. Tonight, the over-under line indicates they expect Cal's 20th-ranked defense, which is holding foes to 59.1 points per game, to have success in slowing down the Huskies. We saw 163 and 186 total points scored in last year's meetings and yet we see a total of 144.5 for this game. This is significant because Cal is 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Montgomery in a road game when the total is 140 to 144.5. It's winning these games by an average score of 74.2 to 66.8. Washington isn't the same team it was last season. Cal will make that known here. Bet the Bears.
01-18-12	San Diego St v. New Mexico -9	Top	75-70	Loss	-105	12 h 13 m	Show
5* Mountain West Conference Game of the Year on New Mexico -9 I believe 16th-ranked San Diego State is overrated, and this line certainly supports that claim. The Aztecs return just one starter from last year's team while the Lobos return 4. Those 4 starters remember last season's 2 losses to SDSU well, and those 2 defeats will be the driving force behind an inspired performance tonight. New Mexico has been a tremendous investment, going 11-3 ATS in all lined games this season and winning those games by an average of 17.4 points. The fact New Mexico enters this contest off 3 consecutive wins of 10 points or more also bodes well for us considering it is 16-2 ATS in its last 18 after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more. It is winning by an average of 13.5 points in this situation. The defensive end has been the biggest reason why the Lobos have ripped off 13 straight wins. They rank 15th in the nation with just 58.0 points allowed per game. I expect the New Mexico to really dig in defensively tonight on their way to a double-digit victory. The Lobos are 10-0 ATS all-time under coach Alford after holding 4 straight opponents to 65 points or less. They are winning by an average of 16.3 points in this situation. Lay the number.
01-18-12	Memphis Grizzlies v. New Orleans Hornets +4.5		93-87	Loss	-105	9 h 12 m	Show
3* NBA Upset of the Night on Hornets +4.5 This is a letdown spot for Memphis following a blowout win over the Bulls. This is also a revenge spot for New Orleans, which lost by 9 to the Grizzlies Saturday. The Grizzlies are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a win of more than 10 points and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Hornets have either won or lost by 4 points or less in 11 of their last 12 at home in this series. Hungry to end a 6-game home skid and to avenge Saturday's loss to the Grizzlies, look for New Orleans to pull off the upset this evening.
01-18-12	Golden State Warriors v. New Jersey Nets -2.5		100-107	Win	100	8 h 25 m	Show
4* NBA BEST BET on Nets -2.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road and with a day of rest on their side, expect the Nets to take care of business at home against a Golden State team that just played yesterday. The Nets have won 11 of the last 13 at home in this series. In fact, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Warriors are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 meetings in New Jersey. It's also worth noting that the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Warriors are a weak 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a losing record and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. We'll lay the points.
01-17-12	Maryland Terrapins +12 v. Florida State	Top	70-84	Loss	-110	11 h 15 m	Show
5* ACC Game of the Week (ESPNU) on Maryland +12 This is a sandwich game for Florida State, which is coming off a 90-57 upset win over North Carolina and has a matchup at Duke Saturday. Still riding high following Saturday's win and looking ahead to this Saturday's test, don't expect the Seminoles to give Maryland the respect it deserves here. Maryland has long dominated this series winning 21 of the last 26 meetings. The Terrapins are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. It is also worth noting that the Noles have been a terrible investment when laying points at home, going just 14-31-3 ATS in their last 48 games as a home favorite. It's also worth noting that Maryland head man Mark Turgeon is 17-6 ATS as an underdog of 10 points or more in all games he has coached. We'll take the points.
01-17-12	Iowa v. Purdue -10		68-75	Loss	-114	11 h 43 m	Show
4* Big Ten BEST BET Purdue -10 Iowa has given Purdue all it has wanted and more the last two times these teams have faced off. Both of those meetings were in Iowa City. Rest assured, things will be different in West Lafayette. The Boilermakers have won 4 in a row at home in the series and the last 3 home wins have come by 22, 23 and 23 points. While Iowa is improved, it certainly isn't immune to beatings. The Hawkeyes lost to Ohio State by 29 points and to Michigan State by 34 points before Saturday's win over Michigan. The home team is on a 7-0 ATS run in this series and Purdue is 15-4 ATS in lined home games since the beginning of last season. Purdue is also 6-0 ATS after scoring 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons, 10-0 ATS in home games after playing a game as favorite over the last 2 seasons, 6-0 ATS after a game where it failed to cover the spread this season, 7-0 ATS in home games after a game committing 8 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS in home games after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Iowa is just 1-9 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons and 0-6 ATS in road games on Tuesday nights over the last 3 seasons. Lay the number.
01-17-12	Charlotte Bobcats +12.5 v. Orlando Magic	Top	89-96	Win	100	10 h 31 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on Bobcats +12.5 Motivated by yesterday's loss to Cleveland, and further fueled by a 21-point loss to Orlando on Dec. 30, expect the Bobcats to give the Magic a game tonight. Because Orlando has already handled Charlotte, it will be much more concerned with Wednesday's matchup with San Antonio and Friday's matchup with the Lakers. The Magic have won 9 straight in the series but only 3 of those wins have come by more than 12 points. History says we're on the right side tonight as well. Consider that plays on underdogs of 10 or more points - cold team having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against a hot team having won 8 or more of their last 10 games - are 170-110 ATS since 1996. This system is 30-14 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 11.0 points or more. The Magic are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite. Take the points.
01-16-12	Baylor v. Kansas -6		74-92	Win	100	12 h 3 m	Show
4* ESPN Big Monday SMASH on Kansas -6 Some teams don't do as well playing on Monday following a Saturday contest. Baylor, for one, is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 Monday games while Kansas is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 Monday games The fact Kansas is coming off an ATS loss actually bodes well for us. The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss and 7-0 ATS off a home win in which they didn't cover the spread over the last 2 seasons. Kansas is also 7-0 ATS versus good defensive teams holding their opponents to 42% shooting or worse this season. The fact Baylor mauled Oklahoma State last game isn't the best scenario considering it is 0-6 ATS following a cover as a double-digit favorite under coach Drew. The Jayhawks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. Baylor is 0-9 all-time in Lawrence and the last 7 losses have come by an average of 17.6 points. Lay the points.
01-16-12	Oklahoma City Thunder v. Boston Celtics +3.5	Top	97-88	Loss	-110	11 h 35 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET (TNT) on Celtics +3.5 The Celtics, who have lost 4 in a row, are hearing all kinds of talk about how their age is catching up with them. I expect them to put that talk to rest momentarily as they prove that can still compete at an elite level tonight. This is a statement game for the Celtics, who need a confidence-boosting win in the worst possible way. I really like their chances of getting that win against an Oklahoma City team that hasn't been dominant on the road. The Thunder are 5-1 away from home, but 4 of those wins have come by 5 points or less. The Celtics are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Celtics have won 7 of the last 9 in this series. The Thunder are just 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Boston. Bet Boston.
01-15-12	Loyola (Md.) v. Iona -11.5		63-74	Loss	-101	5 h 58 m	Show
4* NCAAB Blowout on Iona -11.5 Motivated by an upset loss to Manhattan, expect Iona to take out its frustration all over Loyola Maryland this afternoon. Iona has had an extra day to prepare for this contest and should have much fresher legs than a Loyola squad that used a lot of energy to erase a 15-point second-half deficit in Friday's upset of Fairfield. Iona is one of the most explosive offensive teams in the country, currently ranking 2nd in the nation at 85.1 ppg. The Gaels haven't just scorched weak foes either. They put up 90 points on a Purdue team that is normally very sound defensively. In fact, the Boilermakers are only allowing 61.6 ppg on the season. Iona has dominated this series winning 24 of the last 31 meetings, including 13 of 15 at home during this span. Those 13 wins have come by 18, 8, 24,18, 9, 17, 12, 14, 12, 18, 21, 12 and 10 points for an average winning margin of 14.8 points. The Gaels won last year's home meeting by 18 points, and I expect another decisive victory today.
01-14-12	Philadelphia 76ers v. Washington Wizards +8	Top	103-90	Loss	-110	10 h 3 m	Show
5* NBA Game of the Week on Wizards +8 Motivated by last night's 120-89 loss in Philly, expect the Wizards to bounce back strong in the back half of their home-and-home with the 76ers. Philly cruised last night but it also made 12 of 18 3-point attempts. It is only averaging 6 makes in 17 attempts from beyond the arc this season. Don't expect the 3 balls to fall as easily on the road tonight. Washington has won its last 4 home games in this series. Plus, the 76ers are a lousy 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Philly won't come out with the same intensity it had last night. The Wizards, meanwhile, will leave it all on the floor in hopes of saving face following such an embarrassing loss. We'll take the points.
01-14-12	Oral Roberts v. IUPU-Indianapolis +8	Top	81-71	Loss	-102	9 h 8 m	Show
5* Summit League Game of the Year on IUPU-Indianapolis +8 This is a tough spot for Oral Roberts playing its second road games in 3 days, especially since it is coming off a 1-point double OT win over W. Illinois. I expect the Golden Eagles to be a little hungover from that game. They have typically shown the effects of hotly contest wins, going just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a win by 6 points or less. IUPUI will be lacking no motivation here following 3 straight defeats. Plus, the Jags have made a habit of rising to the occasion against top foes. Consider that IUPUI is 9-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. It's defeating these teams by an average score of 76.3 to 72.7. IUPUI has either won or lost by 6 points or less in 5 of the last 6 meetings in this series. We'll take the points.
01-13-12	Loyola Md v. Fairfield -4.5	Top	66-63	Loss	-110	11 h 12 m	Show
5* NCAAB FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST on Fairfield -4.5 The Stags are better than their 8-8 record might lead you to believe. They have challenged themselves with the schedule, taking on many quality opponents and playing only 4 home games to this point. Since losing to Providence in their home opener, the Stags have won 3 straight on their home floor by an average of 15.0 points. Home court has certainly treated Fairfield well in this series. It has won 11 of its last 15 at home against the Greyhounds by an average score of 72-64. The Stags have won their last 3 at home in this series by 14, 5 and 10 points for an average winning margin of 9.7 points. The Stags are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. We'll take Fairfield in this point-spread range tonight.
01-13-12	Chicago Bulls v. Boston Celtics +2		88-79	Loss	-105	9 h 6 m	Show
3* NBA SMASH (ESPN) on Celtics +2 With or without Derrick Rose, who is currently listed as doubtful with a toe injury, the Bulls will have a tough time coming away with a win tonight in Boston, where they have lost 10 of their last 12. Off back-to-back losses, at home no less, the Celtics will be out to show they are still an elite team by defeating a team tied for the best record in the NBA. The Celtics have been an exceptional home dog, going 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games in the role. Plus, they are an awesome 16-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games since the beginning of last season. They are winning by an average of 12.0 points in this situation. Bet Boston.
01-13-12	Indiana Pacers v. Toronto Raptors +5.5		95-90	Win	100	8 h 5 m	Show
4* NBA BEST BET on Raptors +5.5 Andrea Bargnani is likely out tonight, but I still really like Toronto catching 5.5 points. Motivated by back-to-back losses and a 5-point loss to the Pacers on Dec. 28, and knowing they'll need to step up without their leading scorer, I expect an inspired effort from the Raptors here. Indiana has been inconsistent on the road this season, and likely won't give Toronto its full attention here, especially with a big matchup against Boston scheduled for tomorrow night. Home court has meant everything in this series. In fact, the home team is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. We also find the Pacers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 meetings in Toronto. It is also worth noting that the Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points while the Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take Toronto.
01-12-12	Montana v. Northern Arizona +7.5		78-53	Loss	-111	10 h 29 m	Show
3* Under the Radar Underdog on Northern Arizona +7.5 With Northern Arizona failing to cover the spread in three straight games and Montana having covered the number in each of its last 4 lined games, the value clearly lies with the Lumberjacks. Consider that plays on any team after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games against an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in 4 or more consecutive games are 103-60 ATS the last 5 seasons. This is also a bad situational spot for Montana, which will no doubt be looking ahead to Saturday's showdown with Big Sky leader Weber State. The Grizzlies are just 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Lumberjacks. We'll take the points.
01-12-12	New York Knicks v. Memphis Grizzlies -4.5		83-94	Win	100	10 h 18 m	Show
3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Grizzlies -4.5 Motivated by 3 straight losses and further fueled by a 120-99 beating the last time it saw the Knicks, expect Memphis to play inspired basketball tonight. Memphis is 15-4 ATS since the beginning of last season when checking into a game off 2 or more consecutive losses. It is also 12-0 ATS since the start of last season when checking in off 3 losses in its last 4 games. It has won by an average score of 99 to 90.7 in this situation. The Grizzlies are also an impressive 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Knicks are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when playing without a day of rest. The Knicks' road wins have come against some of the weakest teams in the league (Kings, Pistons, Wizards). They were blown out at Golden State and the LA Lakers, and I can't see them keeping this one within the number against a young, athletic and hungry Grizzlies squad.
01-12-12	Eastern Kentucky v. Austin Peay St -5.5	Top	65-80	Win	100	10 h 3 m	Show
5* Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year on Austin Peay -5.5 Motivated by 4 consecutive defeats, including a 2-point loss at E. Kentucky on Dec. 29, expect Austin Peay to roll at home tonight. The Governors have had no problem in this series at home, where they've won 15 of the last 16 and 7 in a row by an average of 13.1 points. The road has given the Colonels problems all season. They have lost 5 of their last 6 away from home with those 5 losses coming by an average of 13.8 points. Austin Peay has underachieved to this point, but we should see one of its best performances of the season tonight in what is an extremely motivated spot.
01-11-12	New Jersey Nets v. Denver Nuggets -12.5		115-123	Loss	-103	10 h 14 m	Show
4* NBA BEST BET Blowout on Nuggets -12.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses, including an embarrassing 13-point home loss to New Orleans last game, expect the Nuggets to roll tonight. The Nuggets have been one of the best investments in the NBA at 38-15-2 ATS in their last 55 games. They are 24-8-2 ATS in their last 34 games as a favorite, 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a losing record and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 vs. the Eastern Conference. In addition, the Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 11.0 points or more. That's a 12-1 ATS angle I'll get behind any day of the week. The Nets lost in Orlando by 16, in Cleveland by 16 and in Boston by 19. Denver plays great basketball at home, and I expect it to cover the number in this highly motivated spot.
01-11-12	UTEP v. Tulsa -6	Top	48-59	Win	100	10 h 54 m	Show
5* C-USA Game of the Year on Tulsa -6 Motivated by consecutive defeats that came by a combined 3 points, expect Tulsa to bust out of its shell in a big way at home tonight. The home team has had the edge in this series lately, going 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4. Also, UTEP is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 at Tulsa. The Miners lost 4 of those 5 straight up by 1, 11, 23 and 7 points. Looking back further, Tulsa has won 10 of its last 13 at home in the series by an average score of 74 to 63. Under coach Wojcik, Tulsa has been a great investment in this point spread range. In fact, it is 13-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points during his watch, winning these games by an average of 8.3 points. Take Tulsa.
01-11-12	St. Johns v. Marquette -13.5		64-83	Win	100	9 h 31 m	Show
3* Big East Blowout on Marquette -13.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road to Georgetown and Syracuse, expect Marquette to take out its frustrations on an inferior St. John's team at home tonight. The Golden Eagles are 7-1 at home on the season where they have won by an average of 19.6 points. They have the type of explosiveness to really bury the Johnnies in this motivated spot. Marquette blew a 17-point lead against Georgetown and came back from 18 down to pull within two late against Syracuse. The Golden Eagles know they need to put together two halves in this one, and I fully expect them to do so. As if its two most recent losses aren't enough motivation, Marquette will also be fueled by a 12-point home loss the last time it faced St. John's. The Golden Eagles had won eight in a row against the Red Storm prior to that defeat. The Red Storm are coming off a big upset win at Cincinnati but are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. We'll lay the points.
01-10-12	Vanderbilt v. South Carolina +4		67-57	Loss	-109	10 h 39 m	Show
3* NCAAB SMASH (ESPNU) on South Carolina +4 The time to fade Vanderbilt is now. The fact the Commodores enter this contest riding high off a 30-point win over Auburn bodes extremely well for us. Consider that Vandy is just 14-34 ATS in its last 48 games following a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival. The Dores have lost by an average of 3.8 points in these games. South Carolina has won 2 of the last 3 in this series, including an 8-point home win last season. It is worth noting that Vanderbilt was a 5.5-point favorite in that game. The Gamecocks are experienced (return 4 starters) and battle tested (already played N. Carolina, Ohio St., Kentucky). They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 lines games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. Also, the underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this series. Take the points.
01-10-12	Chicago Bulls v. Minnesota Timberwolves +7	Top	111-100	Loss	-110	9 h 12 m	Show
5* NBA BEST BET on T-Wolves +7 Minnesota is better than its 3-6 record leads you to believe, and this line is inflated because of Chicago's 24-point win last night. The T-Wolves have already defeated the reigning NBA champion Dallas Mavericks and the San Antonio Spurs, who had the best record in the West following the 2010-11 regular season. In addition, they have played the OKC Thunder to a 4-point game and the Miami Heat to a 2-point game. The Bulls are 8-2 but have shown some susceptibility on the road, where both of their losses have happened. One of those defeats came to a Golden State team that isn't playing as well as Minnesota. The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points tonight.
01-10-12	Dallas Mavericks v. Detroit Pistons +7		100-86	Loss	-110	9 h 41 m	Show
3* Fool's Gold Favorite on Pistons +7 The reigning NBA champs look to be fool's gold laying this many points on the road, where they are 0-3 this season. The Pistons are struggling but will be extremely motivated following last night's embarrassing 92-68 loss to the Bulls. While the Mavs are clearly the more talented side, I don't believe this is the right time to take the plunge with them. Jason Kidd is out with a back injury and last year's backup point guard J.J. Barea is now in Minnesota. No one currently on the roster runs the offense as smoothly as those two. Plus, Dirk Nowitzki is yet to find his game. He's averaging just 12.0 points and shooting 30.8 percent over his last three games. The Pistons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The underdog is also 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Pistons have either won or lost by 5 points or less in each of the last 5 matchups with the Mavs. We'll fade Dallas.
01-09-12	Idaho State +16.5 v. Wyoming		49-73	Loss	-105	10 h 53 m	Show
4* Monday NCAAB BEST BET on Idaho State +16.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses and further fueled by a 24-point loss to Wyoming the last time these schools met, expect Idaho State to take the floor with a purpose tonight. The fact the Bengals were held to 44 points in a 24-point loss to Montana last time out actually bodes extremely well for us. That's because the Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after being held to less than 50 points in their previous game. They are also 6-0 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 3.7 points in this situation. In addition, plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points that have gone under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, provided they have won 20% of their games or fewer and are playing a team with a winning record, are 37-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. Bet the Bengals.
01-09-12	Minnesota Timberwolves v. Toronto Raptors -3.5		87-97	Win	100	8 h 18 m	Show
4* Monday NBA BEST BET on Raptors -3.5 Motivated by back-to-back losses, including an embarrassing 35-point loss in Philly last game, look for the Raptors to take out their frustrations on a team they have owned. The Raptors have won 13 of the last 14 in this series, including 7 in a row at home by an average of 10.9 points. The Timberwolves are 2-12 ATS in those 14 meetings and 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Toronto. The favorite is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. In addition, the Timberwolves are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. We'll side with the Raptors tonight.
01-09-12	West Virginia v. Connecticut -5.5		57-64	Win	100	8 h 58 m	Show
3* ESPN2 Big Monday SMASH on UConn -5.5 West Virginia is 0-8 all-time at Connecticut, losing by an average of 15.0 points. Plus, the Huskies, who will be motivated by back-to-back upset defeats on the road, are 9-0 at home this season where they are winning by 16.4 points. The fact WVU enters off back-to-back SU and ATS wins actually bodes well for us. The Mountaineers are just 1-8 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons and 1-8 ATS in road games after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. In addition, they are 0-6 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons, losing these contests by an average of 7.8 points. We'll lay the points.
01-07-12	Milwaukee Bucks +10.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers		86-92	Win	100	13 h 11 m	Show
3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Bucks +10.5 The Bucks get the call as a double-digit dog because they are good enough defensively to keep this one close. The Bucks are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Clippers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Eastern Conference and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NBA Central division. The Clippers are improved with Chris Paul, but I'm not sold on them yet. They've won 2 straight thanks to some good shooting, but the shots won't fall as easily against a Milwaukee team ranked 3rd in field goal percentage defense (41.2%) and 3rd in 3-point field goal percentage defense (26.9%). Take the points.
01-07-12	Murray State v. Austin Peay St +6.5		87-75	Loss	-102	10 h 8 m	Show
3* Saturday Night NCAAB SMASH on Austin Peay +6.5 Now is the time to fade the undefeated Murray State Racers. Austin Peay has had an entire week to focus on this game. It will be fresh and it will be hungry to hand the Racers their first defeat. The Governors are a better team than their record might lead you to believe. They upset the Racers on the road last year and have won 9 of the last 13 at home in the series. The Racers are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 in the series and 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings at Austin Peay. Also, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Winning on the road isn't easy, especially with a big target on your back and in an environment where you haven't had much success. Look for Austin Peay to give Murray State all it wants and more tonight.
01-06-12	Portland Trail Blazers v. Phoenix Suns +2.5	Top	77-102	Win	100	12 h 13 m	Show
5* NBA FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST on Suns +2.5 This is a letdown spot for the Blazers, who hit the road with no rest following a big win over the Lakers. The Blazers have been a solid home team for quite some time but consistency has been an issue on the road. They enter tonight's contest at 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that the home team has had the upper hand in this series, covering the number in 5 of the last 7 meetings. Looking back further, we find the Blazers are only 7-15-2 ATS in the last 24 games in Phoenix. There's something about Friday nights for the Suns, who are an amazing 28-14 ATS when playing on the Friday night stage under coach Gentry. The Suns haven't just won these games, they've won them by an average of 7.4 points. Take Phoenix.
01-06-12	Denver Nuggets v. New Orleans Hornets +4.5		96-88	Loss	-101	10 h 45 m	Show
3* NBA SMASH on Hornets +4.5 Prior to winning 3 in a row at home, the Nuggets dropped back-to-back games on the road. They aren't the same team away from home, and that simple fact gives the Hornets a good opportunity to get the "W" tonight. New Orleans will be lacking no motivation following 4 straight defeats. It is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, ranking 4th with 91.0 ppg allowed, and I believe it will really tighten the screws in hopes of ending its skid. While laying the points with Denver at home has been lucrative, it has not been wise to lay the number with the Nuggets on the road, especially a small number. The Nuggets are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Nuggets are just 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series, and the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 matchups. Take the points.
01-05-12	Los Angeles Lakers v. Portland Trail Blazers -3.5		96-107	Win	100	11 h 32 m	Show
3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Blazers -3.5 The Rose Garden has been LA's kryptonite for years. The Lakers are just 6-23 in their last 29 in Portland and 2-10 in their last 12. They are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road this season, and I fully expect their road struggles to continue in a place where they have had virtually no success. Going back to last season, the Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. They have also been a poor underdog investment at 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. The Trail Blazers, meanwhile are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 home games and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 NBA on TNT Thursday games. The Lakers are just 10-26 ATS in the last 36 meetings overall in this series and 5-17 ATS in the last 22 meetings in Portland. We'll lay the points.
01-05-12	Cal State Fullerton v. Cal Santa Barbara -9.5	Top	64-77	Win	100	10 h 7 m	Show
5* NCAAB Bailout Blowout on Cal Santa Barbara -9.5 UCSB is much better than its 6-5 record indicates. It has taken on a tough non-conference schedule that will benefit it in Big West play. The Gauchos have been a phenomenal wager in conference action ate 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big West. The Titans, meanwhile, are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. conference foes. Fullerton hasn't been on the road in a month, which doesn't bode well for it this evening. Consider that the Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games following three or more consecutive home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following 3 or more consecutive wins. UCSB won by 15 in last season's home meeting, and the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Lay the number.
01-05-12	South Dakota State v. Southern Utah +7.5	Top	75-68	Win	100	9 h 56 m	Show
5* NCAAB Underdog Game of the Week on Southern Utah +7.5 Motivated by a blowout loss to IUPU-Ft. Wayne last game, and further fueled by a 5-game losing streak in this series, expect Southern Utah to give South Dakota State all it wants and more this evening. The Jackrabbits haven't played a road game since Dec. 18 and now they're up against a hungry S. Utah squad that is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 vs. the Summit league and 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 home games. Because of SDSU's success in this matchup, it will be much more concerned with Saturday's game at Oral Roberts. With the Jackrabbits looking ahead, and the Thunderbirds out for revenge, this is a good spot to grab the points with the home team.
01-04-12	Chicago Bulls v. Detroit Pistons +6.5		99-83	Loss	-107	7 h 28 m	Show
3* NBA SMASH on Pistons +6.5 I believe it is asking too much of the Bulls to cover this number on the road after spending a lot of energy to erase a 19-point deficit to beat Atlanta 76-74 last night. Chicago won the game on Derrick Rose's layup with 3.7 seconds left. Such an emotionally and physically draining win sets the Bulls up for a letdown this evening. Plus, Detroit likely isn't going to get Chicago's full attention, considering the Bulls have won 11 in a row in this series. While the Bulls have certainly had the upperhand in this series of late, it shouldn't go unmentioned that they have failed to win by more than 5 points in their last 2 in Detroit. The Bulls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Eastern Conference. The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games overall, and the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take Detroit.
01-04-12	Auburn v. Florida State -11.5	Top	56-85	Win	100	6 h 46 m	Show
5* NCAAB Blowout Game of the Week on Florida State -11.5 Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and last year's upset loss at Auburn, expect Florida State to take care of business in a big way this evening. Some might find it interesting that FSU is laying double digits with 2 less wins than Auburn. There is a good reason for this. The Seminoles are a better team than their record shows as they have taken on the likes of Harvard, UConn, Michigan State and Florida. The Tigers aren't as battle-tested. Seton Hall and Long Beach State are really the only two quality teams Auburn has faced and it was crushed by 20-plus in both of those contests. Auburn is just 1-3 SU and ATS when playing away from home this season with these 3 defeats coming by an average of 16.7 points. FSU, meanwhile, is 7-1 SU (4-2 ATS) at home where it has won by an average of 17.9 points. Lay the points.
01-03-12	Charlotte Bobcats +4.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers		101-115	Loss	-110	9 h 15 m	Show
3* NBA BEST BET on Bobcats +4.5 Motivated by 3 straight defeats, including back-to-back blowout losses in which they failed to beat the spread, expect the Bobcats to give the Cavs all they want and more tonight. Cleveland is 2-2 but has played Toronto, Detroit, Indiana and New Jersey and has earned its wins against the Pistons and Nets. None of these teams are considered among the league's elite. The Bobcats, meanwhile, have played Miami twice and Orlando in their last 3 games. They played Miami to a 1-point game last Wednesday, showing they are capable of playing with arguably the best team in the NBA. Charlotte is 14-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. The Bobcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Cavaliers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Also, the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these teams. Take the points.
01-03-12	Michigan State v. Wisconsin -5.5		63-60	Loss	-106	9 h 56 m	Show
3* NCAAB BEST BET (ESPN2) on Wisconsin -5.5 Motivated by Saturday's upset loss to Iowa, expect the Badgers to bounce back strong tonight. Wisconsin is 78-7 at home in conference play under coach Ryan. It is also 13-6 in all games against Michigan State under Ryan and has won 8 in a row over the Spartans at the Kohl Center with six of those wins coming by double digits. Wisconsin is 23-7 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pickem under Ryan, including 6-0 ATS in this situation since the start of the 2009 season with an average winning margin of 11.7 points. The Badgers are also 9-1 ATS in home games when playing against a top-level team (Winning Pct. above 80%) over the last 3 seasons and 8-1 ATS in home games vs. top caliber teams outscoring their opponents by 12-plus points/game over the last 3 seasons. Wisconsin has won these games by an average of 9.8 points. Bet the Badgers.
01-02-12	Milwaukee Bucks +4.5 v. Denver Nuggets		86-91	Loss	-105	10 h 36 m	Show
3* NBA BEST BET on Bucks +4.5 This is a tough spot for the Nuggets who are up against a fresh Milwaukee team following a taxing home-and-home with the Lakers. This is just Milwaukee's 4th game of the season and it's had 2 full days to rest up and prepare for this contest. The Nuggets, meanwhile, will be playing their sixth game of the season and third in 3 days. Milwaukee has been a good defensive team since Skiles took over, and so far it has been able to generate more offense this season. Going along with this, we find that plays on any good defensive team (allowing 88-92 ppg) that is matched up against an average defensive team (allowing 92-98 ppg) after leading their last 3 games by 5 points or more at the half are 27-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. The fact Denver has struggled on the boards early on plays in our favor as well. Consider that Milwaukee is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games vs. teams that are outrebounded by 5 or more per game under Skiles. The Bucks have defeated these foes by an average of 8.2 points. Bet the Bucks.
01-01-12	Toronto Raptors +11.5 v. Orlando Magic		96-102	Win	100	8 h 3 m	Show
3* NBA BEST BET on Raptors +11.5 Motivated by back-to-back defeats, look for the Raptors to give Orlando a game tonight. Despite facing lines of +7.5, +14.5, +12.5 and +10, the Raptors have won 3 of the last 4 in this series, and 2 of those wins came in Orlando. The Magic, who are coming off a blowout win at Charlotte, are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points. It is also significant that the Bobcats are a divisional foe because Orlando is just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games following a win against a division rival. The Magic have actually lost in this situation by an average score of 95.8 to 92.5. The Raptors are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games, and we'll grab them on the road here.
12-31-11	Indiana Pacers v. Detroit Pistons +2.5		88-96	Win	100	8 h 27 m	Show
3* NBA BEST BET on Pistons +2.5 Because of the uptempo style Indiana likes to play, it has been a poor investment when playing on consecutive nights. It will really struggle to find its legs in this one after getting pushed to OT last night. The Pacers are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games when playing on back-to-back days,losing these games by an average score of 101.2 to 93.7. They are also 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, losing these contests by an average score of 103.5 to 90.7. The Pistons want their first win of the season and would love to get it against an Indiana team that defeated them Monday. That games was at Indiana, and I'm expecting a different story in Detroit, where the Pistons have won the last 2 in the series by 12 and 6 points respectively.
12-31-11	Michigan State v. Nebraska +7.5		68-55	Loss	-110	5 h 0 m	Show
3* NCAAB BEST BET on Nebraska +7.5 This is a sandwich game for Michigan State, which is coming off its biggest win of the season (over previously undefeated Indiana) and has Wisconsin on the road next. Nebraska, which was embarrassed by Wisconsin in its last game, won't be lacking motivation here. We cashed in with Michigan State as a favorite Wednesday, but they were clearly showing the value at home against an Indiana team the public had fallen in love with. With that said, fading Michigan State when it is laying points has been the play more times than not in recent years. In fact, the Spartans are just 22-36 ATS in their last 58 games as a favorite. Sparty is almost always overvalued on Saturday when we see the largest volume of college hoops betting. As a result, it is just 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 Saturday games. Take Nebraska and the points.
12-30-11	New Jersey Nets +12.5 v. Atlanta Hawks		98-105	Win	100	10 h 33 m	Show
3* NBA FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST on Nets +12.5 Atlanta, which has won its first two games handily and defeated the Nets by 36 Tuesday, won't give the Nets the respect they deserve tonight. You can bet New Jersey, which has been crushed in its last 2 games, will give everything it has to make sure it isn't embarrassed by the Hawks again. This isn't a good spot for the Hawks, who are 0-12 ATS under in home games after playing a game as a home favorite under coach Drew. The Hawks have lost these 12 games by an average of 9.3 points. The Nets aren't happy with the way they've played in their last 2 games. Rest assured, those poor performances will be all the motivation they need to keep this one within the number tonight.
12-29-11	San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets +3		85-105	Win	100	8 h 8 m	Show
3* NBA SMASH on Rockets +3 Off back-to-back blowout wins at home, expect the Spurs to come up short in their first road game of the season. This old Spurs team, which is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing without a day of rest, won't have enough legs to get it done against a younger Houston squad that is playing on 2 day's rest. The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 2 days' rest. It also bodes well for us that Houston enters this contest off a loss against the spread. That's because the Rockets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS defeat. It is also worth noting that the underdog has covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 in this series. The Spurs are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. divisional foes and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. We'll take the Rockets.
12-29-11	Virginia Commonwealth v. Akron +1		76-75	Push	0	6 h 56 m	Show
3* NCAAB Line Mistake on Akron +1 Odds makers have the wrong team favored here. This VCU team is not the same team that made a run to the Final Four last season. Only 2 starters return from that squad. Akron is one of the best teams in the MAC and should definitely be the side laying points. Akron is 6-0 at home this season and has won 14 in a row at home dating back to last season. From the perspective of the point-spread, the Zips are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games overall and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. This is Akron's last home game before a stretch of 3 in a row on the road so I expect the Zips to be ready to take care of business.
12-28-11	Utah Jazz +12 v. Denver Nuggets		100-117	Loss	-107	12 h 36 m	Show
3* Western Conference BEST BET on Jazz +12 The Jazz are being undervalued here because they are coming off a 25-point loss and are matched up against an opponent checking in off a 22-point win. Utah, which was held to 32.2% shooting by a motivated Lakers squad last night, should fare better here against a Denver team not known for its defense. This is a solid spot to back the Jazz considering they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Utah has won 2 of the last 3 in this series with the lone loss coming by just 2 points. Take the Jazz.
12-28-11	Washington Wizards +9.5 v. Atlanta Hawks		83-101	Loss	-105	10 h 52 m	Show
3* NBA Eastern Conference BEST BET on Wizards +9.5 The Hawks are being overvalued here because they defeated a New Jersey team by 36 points that the Wizards lost to by 6. Keep in mind that Washington blew a 21-point lead in that loss. That defeat has no doubt left a sour taste in its mouth which should fuel a strong effort this evening. Taking the Wizards following an ATS loss has been a good move as they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS defeat. Also, Washington has either won or played the Hawks to within 7 points or less in 3 of the last 4 meetings. We'll take the points tonight.
12-28-11	Indiana v. Michigan State -5.5		65-80	Win	100	10 h 10 m	Show
3* Big Ten SMASH on Michigan State -5.5 Indiana has dropped 16 in a row in East Lansing, and will have a difficult time ending this skid without starting guard Verdell Jones III, who is expected to miss with a hip injury. Odds makers clearly want the money coming in on the undefeated Hoosiers with this line, but we won't oblige them. Consider that plays against an underdog that has successfully covered the spread in 6 or more consecutive games, playing with 5 or 6 days rest, are 29-8 ATS since 1997. Teams fitting into this situation have lost by an average of 8.6 points. It's also worth noting that this situation is 5-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Hoosiers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Big Ten. The home team is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings, and the Hoosiers are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings at Michigan St. Take Sparty.