3* Total Dominator on Idaho St/Arizona St UNDER

This total is set far too high considering the way these teams match up. Idaho State may have scored 99-points in their first game of the season, but they surely will not repeat that feat against Arizona State. The Sun Devils have allowed just 57.5 points from their opponents in the first two games of the season.

I don't think either of these teams can continue to shoot as well as they have. Both teams are averaging over 50% from the field, and bother are over 45% from beyond the three point line. Defensively Idaho State has allowed a 37% shooting percentage from the field and 29.5% on three point attempts. The Sun Devils defense has been even better allowing 34.5% from the field and 23.3% from beyond the three point line.

The under is 7-1 in Idaho State's last eight games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. The under us also 7-2 in Arizona State's last nine games following a straight up win of more than 20 points, and 10-3 in their last 13 games following any straight up win. They are also 26-10-1 to the under in their last 37 games overall.

3* No Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -

The Cavaliers are the better team in this game and they should have no problem covering a six-point line on their home court. Charlotte is averaging a mere 89.5 points per game on the road this season, while the defense is allowing 95.2 points in those games. Cleveland on the other hand has put up an impressive 106 points per game when playing at home.

Cleveland has also dominated the boards when playing at home. They have 60 total rebounds per game, including 14 on the offensive end. The Cavaliers have yet to be defeated on their home court, and they face a Bobcats team that is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games against a team with a winning record at home.

This matchup falls into a system to play against a team like Charlotte when they are being outscored by their opponents by three or more points per game when they are facing an opponent that gave up over 120 points in their previous game. This system is 73-38 (66%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Total Dominator on Rockets/Knicks OVER

Neither of these teams plays a lot of defense. The Houston Rockets are allowing 113 points per game when playing on the road, while the Knicks are allowing 103.5 points per game at home. The Knicks have gone over the total in four of their last five games, and the Rockets have gone over in their last two consecutive games.

Offensively these teams are capable of putting up some big numbers. Houston is scoring 113.7 points per game on the road this year. They are a great shooting team, averaging 49.7% from the field in those games. The Knicks are averaging 94 points per game at home, but they have played some solid defensive teams. That won't be the case tonight since the Rockets have been horrible defensively regardless of the venue they play in.

The Knicks have gone over the total in their last four games against Western Conference opponents. They are also 5-1 to the over in their last six games following an ATS win. Houston has gone over in four of their last five games against Atlantic division teams, and are 4-1 to the over in their last five games following an ATS loss. Expect a shootout in this game because both defenses have failed to show up at the start of the season.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Indiana State +

The Belmont Bruins had a great season last year, but this year they are without Ian Clark, Kerron Johnson and Trevor Noack. Those three led the Bruins in scoring last season, and also accounted for 12 rebounds, 7.8 assists and four of the Bruins 10 steals. That lost production will be impossible to make up with the roster they feature this season.

Indiana State is led by three prolific scorers this year. Dawon Cummings had 21 points in the Sycamores first game of the season, and he will be a tough player for the Bruins to defend against. The Sycamores also received 17 points from Jake Odum and 14 points from Manny Arop. All three of these players saw substantial minutes last season, so their experience gives them a key matchup advantage in this game.

The Indiana State Sycamores are 20-8 ATS when coming off a straight up win as a favorite in which they failed to cover the spread. Their offense looked unstoppable in the season opener against Ball State, scoring an impressive 82 points. Belmont is coming off an eight point loss to Richmond, and the Bruins defense has allowed opponents to shoot 47% against them. Their defense is soft, so Indiana State should have no problem putting another big number on the scoreboard.

3* Main Event on Towson -

This Towson team is being completely undervalued by the oddsmakers. They are 2-0 to start the season, and both of those wins have come by 20 points or more. The Tigers have four players averaging double-digit scoring, and that many offensive threats makes them a very difficult team to defend.

Temple squeaked by an ivy league school in their season opener, winning against Penn by just five points. They lost by four points in their last game to a Kent State team that lost its top two scorers from last season. The Owls lack depth with just eight players seeing minutes this season. They are also without their top three scorers from last season, so the outlook on Temple is grim this year.

This matchup falls into a system to play on a favorite like Towson in the first five games of the season after a combined score of 155 points or more, when they have four starters returning from last season. This system is 71-38 against the spread. It is a great way to identify teams that are undervalued by the oddsmakers in the early portion of the season.

4* Total Dominator on Lakers/Nuggets UNDER

This total appears to be set far too high given the lack of scoring from the Lakers and Nuggets this season. Los Angeles is shooting 42.1% from the field, and I expect another poor shooting performance tonight since the Lakers just played against New Orleans yesterday. When playing on the road the Lakers shooting average drops to 40.4% and they average a mere 95.5 points per game.

The Nuggets have also struggled to put points on the board this year. They are averaging 98.7 points per game and should struggle to reach 100 points again tonight against this Lakers team that has held three of their last four opponents under 100 points. Not surprisingly, the Lakers have gone under the total in three of their last four games.

The under is 5-2 in Denver's last seven games against Western Conference opponents and 4-1 in their last five games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. This matchup also falls into a system to play the under when one of the teams is coming off a home blowout win by 20 points or more like the Lakers, and their opponent is off a road win by 10 points or more like Denver. This system is 96-47 in favor of the under.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Colorado -

Wyoming is without their top three scores from last season so I expect them to struggle against Colorado in this game. They may have beaten Tennessee-Martin in their season opener, but they are clearly outmatched tonight. The Buffaloes also played Tennessee Martin, and dominated them in a 26-point blowout.

Wyoming forced just seven turnovers in their game against the Skyhawks, while Colorado forced 13 in their game against them. The Buffaloes also had 45 rebounds and shot 60.4% from the field. Colorado should dominate the boards with Josh Scott and Wesley Gordon. This is both players second season with the Buffaloes, so experience also favors Colorado.

Colorado is 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Mountain West opponents. This matchup falls into a system to play on favorites of 10 points or more in the first 1- games of the season when they are coming off a blowout win by 20 points or more, and have four starters returning from last season. This system is 78-40 against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on New York Knicks +

The Knicks are off to a slow start this year, but they are definitely the better team in this matchup. The Knicks defense has held opponents to an average of 86.5 points per game on the road this season. Atlanta on the other hand has allowed 102.1 points per game at home.

The Hawks have also benefited from a very soft schedule to open the season. Their opponents defensive averages have allowed over 100 points per game while those opponents have averaged well under 100 points per game scoring. The Knicks on the other hand have faced opponents that allow just 95.9 points per game. New York should have a big night offensively against this Hawks team that has given up a lot of points this season.

Atlanta is 6-18 ATS in home games when coming off one or more consecutive wins. This matchup falls into a system to play against home teams like Atlanta when they have won 51% to 60% of their games on the season and are playing in the month of November. This system is 56-28 against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Total Annihilator on Pelicans/Lakers UNDER

As bad as these teams have been shooting, this total seems to be quite a bit higher than it should be. The Pelicans average 94.3 points per game on the road, and that has come against opponents that are surrendering an average of 97 points per game. They are a below average team offensively, and that won't be changing in today's road game against the Lakers. The Pelican's defense has allowed just 94.7 points per game, a number they should match against the struggling Lakers.

Los Angeles has shot 40.6% from the field this season. Their opponents are allowing 99.9 points per game, yet they average just 97.2 points per game. This is another indicator for a below average offensive team. Defensively the Lakers statistics are a bit misleading. Their opponents have averaged 104.1 points per game, and Los Angeles allows just 102.5 points per game at home which tells me they are much better defensively than they get credit for.

With two below average offenses, and two undervalued defenses, there is a lot of value on the under in this game. This matchup falls into a system to play the under when a team like New Orleans is coming off an upset loss as a favorite when they had a losing record last season. This system is 41-14 (75%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Main Event on Drexel -

The Drexel Dragons are a very talented team. They were within five points of upsetting No. 22 UCLA in their season opener on Saturday. Illinois State on the other hand was dominated by VCU in a 38 point blowout. The Redbirds scored just 58 points in that game and had 22 turnovers. Drexel had just 11 turnovers in their game against UCLA, and shot just shy of 40% from the field which is impressive against the talented Bruins defense.

Illinois State is not a good shooting team. They shot just 31.7% in the season opener against VCU, and it is going to be a very long season for Redbird's fans without Tyler Brown and Jackie Carmichael on the roster. Those two players combined for 35.5 points per game and 13.7 rebounds. Carmichael was their best defensive player, and without him on the court Illinois State allowed Virginia Commonwealth to shoot 55.4% from the field.

The Redbirds are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall, and I think that trend will continue as the team adjusts to a starting lineup that lacks leadership and talent. The Dragons on the other hand have posted a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games following a straight up loss. The way teams respond to a loss speaks volumes about its leadership and character, two things that are definitely not lacking for Drexel. The Dragons are also not lacking in the talent department either with all three of their top scorers back from last season.

3* No Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -

The Chicago Bulls are the better team in this game, and they should have no problem dominating from start to finish on their home court. The Bulls may have a 2-3 record this season, but they are coming off a confidence boosting 24-point victory over Utah last Friday. Both of the Bulls wins have come at home this season, a place they have yet to be defeated.

The Cavaliers cannot continue to win games shooting as poorly as they have. They are averaging just 37.7% from the field, and scoring 85.2 points per game when playing on the road. They will struggle to match that number this week against one of the best defenses in the league. Chicago has held opponents to a mere 77 points per game when playing at home this season.

The Bulls have two days of rest coming into tonight's matchup, while the Cavaliers are playing with just a single day of rest. The Cavaliers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games when playing on one day of rest. They are also 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games against Eastern Conference opponents. In head-to-head matchups between these teams the Favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

4* Heavy Hitter on Western Michigan -

In just two games we have already learned a lot about these two teams. First of all, Tennessee State is awful. They were crushed by 30 points in their season opener against Hawaii, followed by a 15 point loss at the hands of New Mexico State. When Western Michigan played New Mexico State in this tournament they picked up a six-point win.

The Broncos will have Shayne Whittington back tonight after serving a suspension for the first two games of the season. Both of these teams have played the same schedule. The Broncos also lost to Hawaii, but there loss was by just 10-points. With Whittington back in the lineup the Broncos will not have to rely as heavily on their outside shooting. They have several key matchup advantages and should dominate this game from start to finish.

The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral court games. They face a Tigers team that is 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference matchups. I don't think the Tigers offense will be able to do a lot of scoring in this game. They rely on a lot of points in the paint thanks to shooting just 18.2% from beyond the three-point line. Whittington is a 6' 11" center that is not only a great scorer, but also a great defender.

3* Bailout Blowout on New Orleans Pelicans -

Phoenix showed us just how bad they can play in the third quarter of their last game against Denver. They blew a 17 point lead against the Nuggets, and it took a fourth quarter comeback to win the game. Against a quality team like New Orleans I don't think Phoenix can afford to play so poorly and still win the game.

The Pelicans have won three of their last four games. They are averaging 96.3 points per game, the same number of points the Suns have allowed this season. Phoenix is nowhere near as good as there 4-2 record. They have lost two of their last four games, and after battling it out with Denver on Friday I don't expect a strong performance from Phoenix in this game.

In head-to-head matchups with the Suns the Pelicans have a 4-1 ATS record. The road team is also 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between them. This matchup also falls into a system to play against a team like Phoenix after a home game where both teams scored 100 points or more, and they were a bad team that won just 25% to 40% of their games last year playing another team that had a losing record. This system is 27-6 (82%) against the spread.

3* Main Event on New Mexico State -

Yesterday the Tennessee State Tigers were blown out by a very bad Hawaii team. They were crushed by 30 points to open the season, and now have to face a talented New Mexico State team that will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after getting beat by Western Michigan by six points. The Aggies definitely have the motivation factor in their corner for this game.

New Mexico State returns two of its top four scores from last season, which includes leading scorer Daniel Mullings at guard and 7' 5" center Sim Bhullar. Bhullar is a matchup nightmare for Tennessee State and should have a very big game. The Tigers are without three of their top four scorers from last season, which includes both of their top rebounders. This is a very young, inexperienced team that will struggle down the stretch.

The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games. With the Aggies coming into this game as the more experienced team, the more motivated team, and simply the better team I don't think the Tigers have much of a chance at keeping this game close. Lay the points on New Mexico State because this game has blowout written all over it.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Atlanta Hawks -

I am calling for an Atlanta Hawks blowout in this game. Orlando may be 3-2 on the year, but they have outplayed there talent level through the first five games of the season. Reality should settle in today when facing a Hawks team that is scoring 105.2 points per game.

Orlando has been lucky to win three games this season. They are allowing 108.5 points per game, and that is a recipe for disaster against a team with the scoring potential of the Hawks. Also, both of Orlando's losses have been their two road games this season.

The Magic are 17-35 ATS against teams from the Southeast division, and they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes of game time the previous day. Last night the Magic played against Boston and now have to travel to Atlanta to face the Hawks who are coming off a day of rest.

3* Total Dominator on Jazz/Raptors OVER

There is a lot of value on the over in this matchup between the Jazz and Raptors. The total has been set very low due in large part to the lack of scoring from Utah this season. That changes today when they face a Raptors team that is giving up 95.5 points per game at home this season. In Utah's defense, they have played some surprisingly good defenses this season.

Toronto should have no problem making their contribution to the over. They are scoring 94 points per game at home this season. The potential is there for them to increase that number against Utah since the Jazz have allowed an average of 98.6 points per game.

The over has a 4-1 record in Toronto's last five home games against a team with a losing record on the road. It is also 4-1 in their last five games against teams from the Northwest division. The over is 9-3 in Utah's last 12 games against Atlantic division teams. In head-to-head meetings between the Jazz and Raptors the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

3* Late Night Bailout Blowout on Phoenix Suns

After finishing at the bottom of the Western Conference last season, the Phoenix Suns appear to have turned things around this season. Denver on the other hand narrowly avoided their worst start in franchise history. Its obvious these teams are moving in completely different directions as Phoenix sits on a 3-2 record while Denver is just 1-3.

A once stellar offense for Denver has been a major disappointment this year. In their only road game of the season they scored just 88 points against Sacramento. The team averages 97.2 points per game overall, but most of that scoring has taken place at home. The Nuggets are still bad defensively, allowing 103 points per game. They will face a Suns team that has given up just 87.5 points per game in their two home games this season.

The Nuggets are now 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games overall dating back to last season. They are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against Pacific Division teams, and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning record. The Suns on the other hand are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss, and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Utah State -

Last year USC was a major disappointment. They finished with a 14-18 overall record. Expectations will be low again this year as the Trojans try to improve while replacing their best player, Eric Wise who is not in the lineup this season. I expect the Trojans to get dominated on the boards without DeWayne Dedmon in the lineup. Dedmon averaged seven rebounds per game for the Trojans last season, but he has since moved to the NBA's D-League.

The Utah State Aggies will return three of their top four scorers from last season. The Aggies posted a 21 win season a year ago and they should easily continue to build on that success this year. Jarred Shaw will be a matchup nightmare for the Trojans without Dedmon. Last season Shaw averaged 14.2 points per game, 8.4 rebounds per game and was a defensive stud getting an average of one block per game.

The Trojans are 1-8 ATS in their last nine non-conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. They face an Aggies team that is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. With the Aggies returning virtually every key player from last season, and the Trojans without their two two players, Utah State should have no problem winning this game in blowout fashion.

5* Total No Brainer on Nets/Wizards UNDER

The total on this game has been set far too high. First of all, the Brooklyn Nets are the better team and they will control the pace of this game. Washington has done a lot of scoring this season, but it has come at an unsustainable level. Against a good team like Brooklyn I don't think they will be able to match there average of 102 points per game at home.

Brooklyn is not a fast paced offense. They average just 90 points per game on the road. They know they will need to control the pace of this game and turn it into a defensive battle rather than a shootout. The Nets have an extra day of rest over the Wizards and should be able to prevent their opponents from continuing to shoot 50% from the field.

The under is 7-3 in Brooklyn's last 10 games against a team with a losing record. It is also 35-15-1 in Washington's last 50 games following a straight up win. In the last five head to head meetings between these teams the under has a 4-1 record, and a 7-3 record in the last 10 meetings. Expect a strong defensive performance from the Nets, and with their offense struggling on the road this game should easily stay under the total.

3* Bailout Blowout on Denver Nuggets -

The Nuggets have historically had one of the better home court advantages in the NBA and they also have a history of beating up on the Atlanta Hawks when playing at home. Atlanta has lost six consecutive games in Denver, and are 11-28 all time. The last time Atlanta beat the Nuggets in Denver was back in December of 2006.

This is the third leg of a three game road trip for Atlanta. The Hawks have not looked good defensively this season, giving up an average of 107.7 points per game on the road. I don't think the Nuggets can continue to shoot as poorly as they have, and a game against a soft defense like Atlanta's is just what they need to get back to their winning ways at home.

The Atlanta Hawks are not a team that wins consistently. They are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win, and 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. The Nuggets are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games against teams from the Southeast division. I think home court advantage plays a big roll in this game and Denver wins tonight in a shootout.

4* Vegas Insider on Memphis Grizzlies -

New Orleans shot a mere 34.8% in their only road game of the year against Orlando, scoring just 90 points in that game. Their defense was incredibly soft allowing 110 points and they have given up 98.2 points per game overall this season. We know what this Memphis defense is capable of, and even though we have not seen it yet this season, I expect them to shine against a horrible Pelicans team.

Memphis is scoring a lot of points this year. They are averaging 99.7 points per game and shooting over 45% from the field. They are a strong rebounding team and have forced a lot of turnovers from their opponents. Now that we are a full week into the system and the Grizzlies have a few games under their belts I expect the defense to tighten up quite a bit. The Pelicans are bad, and this matchup will be the perfect opportunity for that to take place.

The Pelicans are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games dating back to last season. The Grizzlies have a 10-3 ATS record in their last 13 games when playing with a day of rest between games, while New Orleans is playing on back-to-back nights. The Grizzlies are also a team that gains a lot of momentum when they win at home. They are 25-12 ATS over the last two seasons when coming off a home win.

4* Total Annihilator on Jazz/Celtics OVER

This total is not taking into account just how bad the Jazz have played this season. Utah has given up over 100 points in three of their four games. They face a Celtics team that is averaging 98 points per game at home this season. The Jazz are also playing in back-to-back road games after getting crushed by the Nets last night, so I expect to see the defense come out a little flat footed.

The Celtics poor defense will also make a big contribution to this game going over the total. In their only home game of the season the defense gave up 105 points to Milwaukee. The Jazz are averaging 90.7 points per game this season, and I don't think they will continue to shoot as poorly as they have against this soft Celtics defense.

The over is 7-3 in Utah's last 10 games when they allowed 100 points or more in their previous game. It is also 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these teams. In Boston's last six games against a team with a losing record the over has a perfect 6-0 record.

3* Total Dominator on Pacers/Pistons UNDER

The Pacers defense ranks among the best in the league. They have held opponents to 83.7 points per game this season, on a 37.9% shooting rate from the field. Even when playing on the road they have been dangerous, allowing 90 points per game on 40% shooting.

Surprisingly, the Detroit Piston's defense has also looked solid this season. They did give up over 100 points in their home opener, but that is to be expected in the first game of the season. They tightened things up in their last home game against Boston, holding the Celtics to a mere 77 points. A better indicator of how talented this defense is than points allowed is shooting percentage allowed and Detroit has given up just 42.8% in home games.

In the last seven head-to-head meetings between these teams the under has a 5-2 record. Given the history between these teams I expect to see a hard fought defensive battle. This matchup falls into a system to play the under when one of the teams, in this case Detroit, had a losing record last season and they are facing a division opponent. This system is 72-33 in favor of the under.

3* Main Event on New York Knicks -

The talent gap between these teams is significant. New York is one point away from a 2-0 start to the season. They have played extremely well defensively, and that is what gives them the edge in this matchup against Minnesota.

The Knicks have held opponents to 82.5 points per game this season. Minnesota is not as potent on offense as they may appear, and I expect them to struggle against the Knicks today. It took overtime in the first game of the season against Orlando to put up such a big offensive number. The Knicks have done a great job of avoiding turnovers, and forcing them on defense.

The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against Western Conference opponents. They also own a 13-5 ATS record in their last 18 home games. When coming off a loss they have responded with a 7-3 ATS record. Minnesota has posted a 5-12-1 ATS record in their last 18 road games against a team with a winning record at home.

3* No Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -

Through the first two games of the season we have already learned a lot about the Memphis Grizzlies, and what we know is not good. The once dominating defense appears to have taken a major step backwards. The Grizzlies are allowing an average of 104.5 points per game this season, and things will not get any easier tonight when they take on a Mavericks team that has scored an average of 111.5 points through their first two games.

Both of these teams are playing in back-to-back game night situations, and that has to favor the home team Mavericks. Dallas is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games when playing without a day of rest. Through the first two games of the season these teams have been relatively even in regards to rebounds and turnovers committed. However, the Mavericks get the edge in two other key areas. They shot 57.1% from the field in their home opener, while the Grizzlies shot an abysmal 41.9% in their opened on the road.

The Dallas Mavericks are 27-13 ATS when coming off 1 or more losses over the last two seasons. They are also 28-14 ATS when coming off a game in which they were listed as an underdog. They have done a great job in games the oddsmakers expect to be close, posting a 15-5 ATS record when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.

3* Total No Brainer on Bucks/Celtics UNDER

This matchup features two teams that seriously lack scoring potential. The Celtics lost their leading scorer in the offseason, and it is going to take time for these new players to come together. That means some low scoring games for the Celtics. In their season opener they put up just 87 points on a mediocre Toronto defense.

It is a similar story for the Milwaukee Bucks. I can't see this team scoring many points this season after getting rid of a great point guard for a mediocre one with the Jennings for Knight trade, and losing Dunleavy as an unrestricted free agent. This Bucks have been mediocre for years, and if anything they took a step backwards offensively with their offseason moves.

The under is 40-16 in Milwaukee's last 56 games when coming off a performance in which they earned five of less offensive rebounds. This matchup also falls into a system to play on the under when a team that won 40% to 49% of their games last season like Boston, is facing another team that had a losing record. This system is 64-29 to the under over the last five seasons.

5* Total Dominator on 76ers/Wizards OVER

We learned two things in Philadelphia's season opener. First of all their offensive scoring potential is much improved after the overhaul this team went through in the offseason. They put up 114 points in that home opener against Miami. They also showed us that there is going to be a learning curve while these players learn how to play together. The defense allowed 110 points, and the team had 18 turnovers.

It is a very similar story for the Wizards. The managed to score 102 points in their season opener, which was played on the road. With this matchup against Philadelphia being their first home game of the year, I expect the crowed to be fired up and the Wizards to put on an offensive show.

Dating back to last season the over is 7-1 in Washington's last eight games against Eastern Conference opponents. It is also 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss. It is 15-5 in home games when Washington is coming off a road loss over the last two seasons. The 76ers are also trending towards the over, posting a 51-31 record to the over against Southeast division opponents.

3* No Doubt Rout on LA Clippers -

The Clippers are loaded with talent this season. Their starting lineup is comprised of potential All-Stars, centered on Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. They were also able to lure in a great head coach with Doc Rivers, one of only four active head coaches with an NBA championship ring. This is the home opener for Los Angeles and I expect Rivers to have his team ready to play against their Western Conference rivals.

The Warriors are playing on back-to-back nights, and at this point in the season I expect conditioning to be a major issue. The Clippers have a big advantage playing with a night of rest. I think Los Angeles will come to play in this game after a disappointing season opener on the road against the Lakers on Tuesday. The Clippers are the team to beat in the Western Conference this year, and they will show critics why that is the case tonight against Golden State.

This matchup falls into a system to play on favorites like the Clippers when they are coming off an upset loss as a road favorite in the first six games of the season and they were a playoff team from last season that has lost four or more of their last five games. This system identifies teams that are undervalued by the oddsmakers, and it has resulted in a 28-7 ATS record. Expect the Clippers to make a statement tonight.

3* Bailout Blowout on Sacramento Kings -

The Kings have a potential superstar in the making with DeMarcus Cousins at Center. He is an aggressive and physical center that will prove to be a matchup nightmare for the Denver Nuggets in this game. The Nuggets lack depth at the center position and the team has a whole looks completely different than the unit that posted a 24-4 run after the All-Star break last year. It is Denvers strong finish last season that has them overvalued in this game.

The Nuggets are without Andre Iguodala, and he has been replaced with Randy Foye. The shooting guards defensive capabilities are non-existent so that is another position that the Kings should have a great matchup advantage. Sacramento made some great moves in the offseason that make them a much stronger team defensively so they should be able to keep the Nuggets scoring in check.

Last season the Nuggets defense was horrible on the road, while the Kings did a remarkable job scoring at home. Denver allowed over 104 points per game while the Kings put up over 104 points. Those two factors combined indicate a potential blowout win for the Kings. The Nuggets finished 0-6 ATS in their last six games against Western Conference opponents last season, and 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. The Kings had a 5-1 ATS rally against Western Conference opponents and the favorite is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between these teams.

5* No Brainer on New Orleans Pelicans +

It is early in the season so there is very little chance that the conditioning levels are where head coaches want them to be. That spells trouble for the Pacers because they are playing on back-to-back nights. The Pelicans will be the fresh and rested team with home court advantage so getting two points is a gift from the oddsmakers.

The Pelicans made some quality moves in the offseason so they should be a much better team this year. Jrue Holiday is an All-Star player and a matchup nightmare for the Pacers. Combine that with the fact that they will have a healthy Eric Gordon and the Pacers should be on upset alert. Gordon is an undervalued talent that has played in just 51 games over the last two seasons. Gordon averaged 22.3 points per games with the Clippers in the 2010-11 seasons.

The Pacers have been given too much credit based on last year's postseason performance. They looked soft when closing out the game against Orlando last night and are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win. The Pelicans are a great team to back based on their rest profile. When they have time to rest and prepare for an opponent (three or more days) they have posted a 13-4 ATS record in their last 17 games.

4* Heavy Hitter on Chicago Bulls +

The Chicago Bulls have a legitimate chance to finish the season with one of the best records in the NBA. As we saw in the playoffs last year, Dwayne Wade is aging, and the Heat cannot rely on Chris Bosh to step up his performance when wide is getting rest minutes. The Bulls play very stingy defense, similar to the style of Indiana. We saw last year how that can cause the Heat problems on offense.

Derrick Rose averaged 20.7 points while the Bulls went 8-0 during the preseason. The Bulls have played some great games against the Heat, including a game one win at Miami in the playoffs last year. They accomplished that feat without Rose, who has played in just one of the last 12 meetings between these teams. Rose is the differentiating factor that give the Bulls the edge in this game.

In head-to-head matchups between these teams the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The Bulls clearly have a defensive edge in this game, and with Derrick Rose back the offense is bound to give the Heat a run for their money. These teams don't like each other and I expect this matchup to come down to the last possession.

4* Total Annihilator on Spurs/Heat UNDER

I expect to see the Heat concentrate on a better defensive performance in game 7 tonight. With the shooting from the Spurs role players leveling off and San Antonio using everything left in the tank in game 6 that should be an easy task to accomplish. Miami still has some offensive problems of their own which makes the under a strong value play in today's matchup.

Miami has gone under the total in 5 of their last 9 games in the playoffs and it not for overtime in the last game that record would easily be 6-3. The Heat defense has been great in the playoffs allowing an average of just 90.8 points per game. The Spurs defense has also been solid holding their playoff opponents to 93.2 points per game.

The under is 7-2 in the Spurs last 9 road games against a team with a winning record and 17-5 in their last 22 road games overall. These teams have a history of staying under the total when playing in Miami. In head to head matchups the under is 12-4 in the last 16 games when the Heat are at home.

3* Main Event on Miami Heat

The Miami Heat delivered a big blow to the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday night. San Antonio thought they had the game locked up before Lebron James stepped in to send the game to overtime. That kind of disappointment will linger with a team which is way I expect the Spurs to have a major let down performance tonight.

There are no more games left in this series so the Heat are playing in another game that is a must win situation. They seem to thrive in this role which is why their last two series have gone back and forth. Miami has one of the most potent offenses in the league averaging 104.6 points per game on their home court. They are shooting over 50% at home and it was obvious in game 6 that the Spurs are getting worn out.

Even when San Antonio wins the battle on the boards they are losing to the Heat. In game 2 the Spurs were +7 on the boards and lost in an 84-103 blowout. The game 6 rebounding advantage when to the Spurs at +13 which further shows how worn down this San Antonio team is after a long season. The Heat know they can't allow the Spurs to keep this game close and I expect them to pick up this win in a blowout. They are 5-1 in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The shooting from the Spurs role players has leveled off and Miami is 42-28 ATS against teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots per game this season.

3* Main Event on San Antonio Spurs +

This is too many points for the Spurs to be receiving considering how well they are playing in the post season. The Spurs average 100.8 points per game on the road and they have covered the number in 9 of their last 13 playoff games. San Antonio is shooting 47% against the Heat and Miami does not look like they have what it takes to cover such a large number.

Defensively the Spurs have held Miami to an average of 96.2 points per game. The Miami heat have allowed San Antonio an average of 99.2 points per game in the first five games of this championship series. With the role players for the Spurs making big shots it is very unlikely that the Heat can continue to play well in every other game and cover a 7 point line.

The Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games while Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games coming off a performance scoring 100 points or more. The Heat are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. All signs point to a very close battle between these teams.

3* Total Annihilator on Spurs/Heat UNDER

The Miami defense has been respectable this season, especially when playing at home. They have held opponents to 94 points per game while scoring just 96.2 points per game against the Spurs. The first two games of this series played in Miami stayed well under the posted total of 190 points and 189.5 points so there is a lot of value on the under as we come back to Miami with an even higher total set on this game.

When playing on the road the Spurs have taken a defensive oriented approach rather than a shoot quickly and score approach like they use at home. This is exactly why San Antonio held Miami to just 88 points in the series opener of this game. While both of these teams have been shooting well in San Antonio I expect that to level out as we head back to Miami.

The under is 13-3 in the Spurs last 16 road games against a team winning 60% or more of their games at home and it is 17-4 in their last 21 road games overall. The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 home games and 12-3 in the last 15 head to head meetings between these teams when the game is being played in Miami.

3* Main Event on San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are playing on an extra day of rest coming into tonight

5* Finals Game of the Year on Miami Heat

The Miami Heat are a team that plays better when their backs are up against the wall. We have seen it throughout the playoffs in the series against Indiana and now against San Antonio. They have not lost back to back games since the beginning of the season. The Spurs may struggle without Tony Parker if he is unable to play due to a nagging leg injury.

The Heat have now seen San Antonio

3* Main Event on San Antonio Spurs

The Miami Heat may have won game 2 in a blowout but do not expect that to slow San Antonio down today. The Spurs are a veteran team and should have no problems responding to that loss on their home court. San Antonio averages 104.4 points per game at home and I do not expect the Heat to have solid back to back defensive performances.

You have to like San Antonio's chances of picking up a win on their home court. They managed to beat Miami in game 1 of this series even though the Heat had a pretty solid overall performance. The Spurs have performed well defensively at home allowing just 94.2 points per game giving them an average scoring margin of victory at 10.1 points per game.

Miami is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. They have not shown us that they can perform well in back to back games during the post season. They are playing in a very unfamiliar role coming into this game as an underdog. San Antonio has done a great job of responding after a poor performance going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Spurs are also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 NBA Championship games. Expect this veteran team to come out strong for tonight's game.

4* Vegas Insider on Miami Heat

Miami has done a great job of responding to losses this season and I fully expect them to do the same thing for game 2 of this Championship Series. Miami has not lost 2 games back to back since January so the possibility of back to back losses seems very unlikely. Miami actually outplayed the Spurs in game 1 of this series and assuming they stick to the same game plan I do not expect the anomaly of the better team losing to repeat itself.

The Heat offense at home averages 104.7 points per game and the San Antonio defense is not good enough to hold them so far below their statistical average in back to back games. The Spurs are allowing 97.2 points per game on the road this season. Miami may play small ball but they are also a better rebounding team than San Antonio. In game 1 they had a total of 54 boards compared to 47 from the Spurs.

The reality is that Miami is the better team. After losing as a favorite I expect to see this Miami team respond just like they did in the series against Chicago as well as the series against Indiana. The Heat never lost back to back games and they always followed a losing performance with a good game. The Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 2 days of rest and they are 9-2 ATS following a straight up loss. I don

3* Main Event on San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs come into this game being the well-rested team. They are a veteran team so that rest will be crucial when facing the Heat. Miami is coming off a mentally and physically draining series against the Pacers and two of the Big Three are struggling right now. Dwayne Wade is playing through a knee injury and Chris Bosh is coming off a poor shooting performance in the series against Indiana.

The Spurs offense has actually scored more points on average than the Heat. San Antonio is averaging 102.8 points per game compared to 101.9 per game from the Heat. The Pacers gave San Antonio a blue print for how to beat Miami. Pounding the ball inside will be the reason San Antonio keeps this game close and possibly pulls off the win in this game.

The Spurs have played great basketball on the road against winning teams. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a home winning percentage of 60% or more. They are 4-1 ATS in NBA Championship games and their experience should lead them to a solid opening game performance against a Heat team that has been known to start slow. Miami is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win and I expect them to struggle with the talented bigs on this Spurs team.

3* Main Event on Miami Heat

The Indiana Pacers are in for some big trouble tonight when they face the Miami Heat. This matchup falls into a system to play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Miami when they are revenging a loss where the team scored less than 85 points and they are off an upset loss of 10 points or more when playing as a road favorite. This system is 24-4 (86%) ATS.

The Heat have one of the best offenses in the league averaging 105.1 points per game. They certainly have blowout potential against Indiana if you look back at games 3 and 5 of this series. The Pacers have not been able to hold Miami

3* Total Annihilator on Heat/Pacers UNDER

Even though the Pacers lost game 5 of this series they can

3* Main Event on Miami Heat -

Miami received their first real wake-up call of the season when they lost a close battle with the Pacers on Tuesday. The Heat were into foul trouble early in that game and that is a mistake they will not repeat today. They are also playing on their home court where they are 42-6 on the season and it will be a big advantage for today

3* No Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers +3

The Pacers have shown us they can compete with the Heat and after Miami shot 54.5% in the last game between these teams I expect Indiana to have no problems making the necessary defensive adjustments. On the offensive side of the ball Indiana did nothing to exploit their size advantage like they did in the first two games of the series. This is also something I expect Indiana to get back to doing tonight.

The Pacers will have the benefit of playing in front of their home crowd again which can be a huge momentum swing, especially in a playoff game. Indiana has held teams to 90.1 points per game at home on 41.4% shooting. They have the second best defense in the league statistically, and many would argue they are actually better than Memphis due to a more difficult schedule and playing through injuries.

The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss and they are 4-0 in their last 4 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. They have posted a 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games at home. They should have no problems improving on that number with a much better defensive performance during tonight

5* Total Playoff Game of the Year on Heat/Pacers UNDER

Indiana made the mistake of letting the Heat control the pace of the last game and it cost them. I don

4* Vegas Insider on Memphis Grizzlies

This matchup falls into a system to play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 and they are coming off an upset loss as a favorite in a game involving two teams winning 60% to 75% of their games this season. This system is 53-20 (73%) ATS. The Grizzlies are also 15-6 ATS against teams winning over 70% of their games this season.

Memphis is playing in a must win situation to keep their playoff hopes alive. I expect the defense to step up and perform well against the Spurs tonight. The Grizzlies have the best defense in the league and have held opponents to 87.6 points per game when playing at home.

San Antonio shot over 50% in the last game against Memphis. That anomaly is unlikely to occur again playing on the Grizzlies

5* Total Dominator on Pacers/Heat UNDER

The Indiana Pacers have the second best defense in the NBA. They are playing on their home court for today

4* No Brainer on Memphis -

Memphis is playing in a must win situation today. They cannot afford to fall three games behind against the Spurs and they know it. The venue for this game has moved to the Grizzlies home court so I expect them to have a very strong performance in this game.

Memphis is 37-9 at home this season and their defense has held opponents to 87.2 points per game which leads all teams in the NBA. The Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss and they are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Spurs definitely do not play great on the road as 19 of their 26 losses on the season have come away from home.

Defensively San Antonio has struggled on the road allowing opponents 97.8 points per game. That spells big trouble for the Spurs today, especially when you consider the fact that Memphis is 15-5 ATS when playing against a top tier team winning 70% or more of their games this season. The Grizzlies defense should prove to be too much for the Spurs today as Memphis picks up a big home court win.

3* Main Event on Miami Heat

After the scare the Pacers gave the Heat in game 1 of this series I expect them to respond the same way they did against Chicago, with a blowout win. The Heat are 6-1 in their last 7 games following an ATS loss and they are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games when playing with a day of rest.

The Heat have a statistical advantage from almost every angle. They are scoring more points per game, which goes hand in hand with their better shooting percentages, and they average less turnovers and have a stronger bench. While Indiana may have an edge defensively, the Heat have more scoring threats than any other team they have faced this season.

The achilles heel for Indiana is their inability to score points. They rank 23rd in the league averaging just 94.7 points per game. I expect Miami to have no problems breaking down the Indiana defense now that they have a full game worth of film to analyze. Add in the fact that Miami is playing on their home court and we have a blowout in the making.

5* No Brainer on Indiana Pacers +

The oddsmakers are not giving much respect to arguably one of the best defenses in the league this season. Indiana has not allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or more from the field in over a month coming into this game. Miami did not look good in their opener against Chicago and with the Heat not having played in a week I expect them to come out a little sluggish in this matchup too.

The Pacers defense has held opponents to an average of 89.4 points per game in the playoffs on 41.6% shooting from the field. This is a defense that plays just as good on the road as they do at home holding opponents to a mere 91.6 points per game. While the Pacers may not have a high scoring offensive unit, they should certainly not have any problems staying within 8 points against a Miami defense allowing almost 95 points per game at home.

Indiana is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. They are also 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games when they are playing on 3 or more days of rest. The extra rest afforded to the Pacers will prove to be very beneficial to an already stout defense. Expect the Pacers to come out strong and the defense to keep this game close until the end.

3* Main Event on Memphis +

There is a reason this line is only a point off the line from game 1 of this matchup. The San Antonio Spurs shot 52.6% from the field against the best defense in the post season and that anomaly is not going to take place again. The Grizzlies typically hold opponents to 43.6% shooting and 89.8 points per game.

This matchup falls into a system to play against home teams coming off two straight wins by 10 points or more when they are playing against an opponent that scored 85 points or less in the previous game. This system is 40-17 (70%) ATS over the last five seasons.

In head to head history between these teams the games have been very close. Back in April the Grizzlies won straight up by two points. Excluding the game 1 matchup between these teams three of the last four games have been decided by 5 points or less and there is no reason tonight

3* Main Event on San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio has been dangerously good at home this season. The Spurs posted a 39-7 straight up record. The offense has averaged 104.6 points per game at home while allowing only 94.7 points. They are an extremely well rounded team and when playing at home they should have no problems pulling away from the Grizzlies.

Memphis comes into this game barely scoring more than what they allow when playing on the road. The Grizzlies averaged 93.6 points per game while holding opponents to 92 points per game. While the Grizzlies defense has been great, the Spurs present a matchup nightmare.

San Antonio is 14-4 ATS when playing on 2 days of rest. When coming off a straight up win by 10 points or more they are 4-1 ATS in the following game. In head to head matchups the Spurs have a history of dominating the Grizzlies. Memphis is 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games played at San Antonio and 2-6 ATS in the last 8 overall.

4* No Brainer on Indiana Pacers -

The Knicks have not responded well to a win and their inability to gain any momentum will haunt them today against the Pacers. New York is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win and they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. They are facing a Pacers team that is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games played at home and against a Pacers defense that has shut them down for most of this series.

The Pacers own a 35-11 record at home because their defense plays so well. Their defense ranks 1st in the league in shooting percentage allowed from the field as well as from beyond the three point line. They are 2nd in points allowed per game and 1st in rebounds per game on offense. Throughout the playoffs Indiana has run their defense seamlessly and all those bodies in the paint makes rebounding an easy task.

While the Knick

3* No Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -

Indiana is by far one of the worst road teams left in the playoffs. The Pacers have a 21-24 straight up record on the road. They are scoring only 91 points per game away from home which is nowhere near the level they need to keep pace with this Knicks team scoring 101.5 points per game at home.

The Knicks are playing to keep their postseason hopes alive and that should serve as plenty of motivation for today

3* Oddsmakers Error on Chicago Bulls +

It may come as a surprise to hear that Miami is 0-9 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. Things will not get much better for Miami when they face a Chicago team that still has a lot of fight left in them. The Bulls responded well to the first blowout by Miami and coming off a 65-88 loss is more than enough motivation to play well today. The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit home loss.

With the exception of game 2 in this series the Bulls defense has played pretty well. The spark they need is on offense, especially after a 25.7% shooting performance in the last game of this series. The Miami defense is not that good so I don

4* Heavy Hitter on San Antonio Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs are a veteran team and they have no problem responding to a loss, even in the postseason. San Antonio is 19-8 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors have certainly played better than what they deserve credit for. The have allowed an average of 103.5 points per game on the road while scoring 101.7 offensively.

The Spurs have to have a sour taste in their mouth after Golden State picked up a win on the Spurs home court so they will certainly be playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight. One thing that should not be forgotten is this the fact that this San Antonio team is the same one that has won six of their last eight games and is a Championship contender every year.

The Spurs have one of the best home records in the league and while their ATS record at home is right around .500 that seems to be the norm for most NBA teams. I really like the Spurs to cover this number tonight because of their home court advantage. They average 104.5 points per game at home and playing against a soft Warriors defense should make it easy for San Antonio to pull away.

4* Total Dominator on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER

The oddsmakers are still not giving any love to the Grizzlies defense this season. This line is especially high considering Oklahoma City

3* No Doubt Rout on Golden State Warriors

Golden State is coming off a 10 point home loss against the Spurs and that will serve as motivation for today

4* Total Annihilator on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER

The oddsmakers continue to underestimate the talent of this Memphis defense. The Grizzlies have held opponents to 87.2 points per game at home this season. Offensively they do not do much to be concerned about going over the total as they are scoring a mere 93.9 points per game.

The Thunder are 17-3 to the UNDER when coming off 2 consecutive games as a home favorite this season. The Grizzlies are also trending towards the under at 14-5 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. The Grizzlies defense is dangerous enough when they are playing almost every day, but given some rest and they should be performing at their best against the Thunder.

When the series is tied both teams feel like they are playing in a must win situation. In these scenarios teams will often make defensive adjustments rather than finding additional ways to score. This is why you should always play the under when the total is 180 to 189.5 points when both teams have a winning record on the season and they are playing in a playoffs series that is tied. This system is 34-16 (68%) over the last five seasons.

3* Total Dominator on Golden State/Spurs UNDER

With the series tied at 1-1 I expect both of these teams to step up their play defensively. This matchup falls into a system to play on the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 points and the home team is well rested, playing 4 games or less in the last 10 days, and they are winning 51% to 60% of their games on the season, and playing against a team with a winning record. This system is 35-10 (78%) to the UNDER for the last five seasons.

The Spurs are holding opponents to 96.5 points per game this year while Golden State is holding opponents to 97.7 points per game at home. Four of the last six games between these teams have gone under the total. In game 2 of this series the Warriors held San Antonio to 39.3% shooting from the field and in game 1 the Spurs were held to 43.8% shooting. If not for a double overtime in the first game of this series this total would be set several points lower than it is today.

The Spurs are 18-7 to the under after playing two consecutive home games this season while Golden State is 13-4 to the under when playing as a home favorite of 3 points or less over the past two seasons. The fact that this series is tied means that both teams feel like they are playing in a must win situation. Nobody wants to be down in the series with the championship dreams on the line. Golden State is playing well defensively right now and the Spurs have to be making defensive adjustments to keep the Warriors from getting points on the board. All signs point to a defensive battle tonight with this game staying under the total.

5* LATE INFO INSIDER on Spurs +2.5

There is no way San Antonio should be an underdog coming into this game. You should always play on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 like San Antonio when they are coming off an upset loss as a home favorite, and they are a well-rested team playing 3 or less games in the last 10 days. This system is 24-6 (80%) ATS.

The Spurs have no problem winning games on the road. They posted a 25-18 straight up record and average 101.9 points per game away from home. Defensively San Antonio is holding opponents to 96.5 points per game and it is that defense that will be the difference maker in today

4* Total Dominator on Heat/Bulls UNDER

The total on this game is set far too high considering how well both of these defenses are playing right now. Miami has gone under the total in four of the last five playoffs games. They have done so while shooting a spectacular 48% from the field. The Bulls are also shooting well, but they are not scoring a lot of points. This is because the style of play for both of these teams requires taking time off the clock to setup each possession.

It is not just game one of this series that went under the total. In head to head matchups the under is 4-1 in the last 5 games played at Miami. The Heat are 6-0 to the under in their last 6 games against NBA central teams. The Bulls are also trending towards the under at 5-2 in the last 7 against teams with a winning record.

Chicago has held opponents to 93.3 points per game on average this season. The Heat had also had impressive defensive numbers holding opponents to 94.5 points per game. Considering the fact that both of these teams run a slowdown offense they are the perfect matchup scenario to stay under the total.

4* Vegas Insider on New York Knicks -

Chalk up the first game of this series as an anomaly because the Knicks should take this one big tonight. This matchup falls into a system to play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Indiana after having covered three of their last four games against the spread, when they are playing in a game involving two teams winning 60-75% on the season. This system is 49-26 (65%) over the last five seasons.

This matchup falls into another system to play on favorites like New York when they are a hot team that has won 20 or more of their last 25 games and they are winning 60-75% or more of their games this season. This system is 63-39 (62%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Knicks offense shot 43.2% from the field in the first game of this series and they allowed the Pacers to shoot 48.7%. Both of those numbers are well of season averages and should not take place again tonight.

The Pacers managed to outscore their season average on the road by double digits in game one of this series. Let

5* No Brainer on San Antonio Spurs -

The Spurs may not have the flash and pizzazz that that NBA fans want to see, but the bottom line is they know how to win ball games. The Spurs have a 37-6 record at home and they average 104.2 points per game, enough to keep up with any team left in the postseason. The Spurs are facing one of the most overrated teams still in the playoffs which means this game is going to be a blowout.

Golden State may average 101.1 points per game on the road, but their defense allows 103.2 points per game. They have one of the worst road records for any playoff team at 20-24 straight up. The San Antonio defense has held opponents to 93.9 points per game and their average margin of victory at home is over 10 points.

San Antonio is 32-15 ATS over the past two seasons when playing against a team winning 51% to 60% of their games. In the second half of the season that number improves to 21-9 ATS. Golden State on the other hand is 15-28 ATS in the second half of the season against teams making 36% or more of their 3 point attempts over the last 3 seasons. These trends combined for a record of 81-39 (68%) ATS.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Miami Heat -

The Chicago Bulls are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. They pulled off a surprise upset over Brooklyn just two days ago and now they will face a well-rested Miami Heat team. The Heat locked up their opening series back on April 28th and that extra rest will make a big difference in today

3* Main Event on New York Knicks

Indiana is 0-7 ATS this season when they are revenging a loss where the team scored less than 85 points. The Pacers have been horrible on the road earning a 20-23 straight up record. Offensively they average a mere 91 points per game while the defense is allowing 91.3 points on the road. They face a Knicks team that has seen no shortage of offense on their home court averaging 101.5 points per game. Obviously as we enter the second round of the NBA playoffs the teams are facing better competition. New York will be one of the toughest teams the Pacers have faced on the road. The Knicks record at home is an impressive 33-11 straight up and 26-18 against the spread.

New York struggled with Boston because after going up 3-0 they began to look past their opponent. That will not happen with the Pacers as the Knicks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games on the season. With the style of offense run by New York is is really no surprise that Woodson is 17-6 ATS in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams that are forcing 14 or less turnovers per game as the coach of New York. I expect this game to get ugly early for the Pacers as the Knicks pick up a big win to open this series.

5* Total No Brainer on Nets/Bulls UNDER

With the series between these teams being tied at 3-3 I expect both coaches to be making defensive adjustments coming into game 7. You should always play the under when the total is between 180 to 189.5 points when the playoff series is tied and both teams have a winning record. This system is 34-14 (71%) to the under throughout the last 5 seasons.

Both of these teams are solid defensively with the Bulls holding opponents to 93.4 points per game and the Nets holding opponents to 94.6 points per game on their home court. The fact that one of these teams will be eliminated after tonight

3* Bailout Blowout on Houston Rockets -

The injury to Russell Westbrook has proved to be fatal for the Thunder. Houston has picked up wins in the last two games and they should have no problem evening the series to 3-3 on their home court tonight. Houston is 30-13 straight up at home averaging 108.1 points per game.

The Thunder like to turn games into a shootout which plays perfectly to Houston

4* No Brainer on Los Angeles Clippers +

The Clippers should not need any more motivation than they already have after dropping three straight games to Memphis. They are 18-7 ATS over the last two seasons when playing with double revenge, having 2 or more consecutive losses against their opponent. They have been embarrassed in three straight games and I expect to see them come out and make a statement in today

4* Total Annihilator on Nets/Bulls UNDER

Brooklyn is 19-7 to the UNDER when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days while Chicago is 13-5 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. The fact that this game is being played in Chicago should also help the total. The Bulls have allowed a mere 91.5 points per game at home this season.

The first game played in Chicago ended with a 76-79 final score staying well under the total of 182 points. The second game played at Chicago went way over the total due to the game extending out into triple overtime. The total on that game was set at 176.5 points and it seems like a much more appropriate total for this game over the 184 it is set at today.

Neither team has been spectacular on offense with the Nets averaging 96.6 points per game on the road and the Bulls averaging just 93.7 points at home. After Chicago was blown out to the tune of 110-91 in the last game I expect to see them make a conscious effort to play better defense. They should have a much easier time controlling the pace of this game playing on their home court which makes the under the value play.

3* Main Event on Indiana Pacers -

The Indiana Pacers are one of the most dangerous teams in the playoffs when playing at home. They have a 32-11 straight up record and the Pacers are 24-19 ATS. They swept Atlanta with a pair of blowouts during the first two games of the series. That trend should continue today considering how bad Atlanta has looked on the road this year.

Indiana has held opponents to 90.1 points per game at home while the offense scores and average of 98.2 points per game. They face an Atlanta offense that is average at best when on the road, scoring 96.4 points per game while the defense is allowing 97.4 per game. The Hawks have not found a way to stop Paul George and George Hill as both players led the Pacers in scoring in the first two games of the series.

The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 day of rest. The Pacers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and their defense plays so well at home it

3* Oddsmakers Error on Denver Nuggets -

Denver is 17-6 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. This matchup falls into a system to play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Denver when they are scoring 102 points per game or more against a poor defensive team allowing 98-102 points per game after allowing 105 points or more in 2 straight games. This system is 63-32 (66%) ATS since 1996.

The Nuggets are playing in a must win situation tonight so there is no way they will take their foot off the gas. They average 108.4 points per game at home and pull in 54 rebounds per game. They also have one of the best home court records in the league at 39-4 straight up and 28-15 ATS.

With Denver playing to keep their postseason dreams alive I think they come out and play aggressive with the Warriors in front of their home crowd tonight. The Warriors have a losing record on the road this season at 20-23 and their win over Denver on April 23rd was due to shooting almost 65% from the field. That is unlikely to occur again so the Nuggets should take this one by a large margin.

3* Total Annihilator on Bulls/Nets UNDER

If not for triple overtime in the last game, the series between the Bulls and Nets has seen very little offensive production. The under is 6-2 in Chicago's last 8 road games and 31-14 in their last 45 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. In the last two games played at Brooklyn the Bulls were held to 90 points or less. The series is back in Brooklyn for today's game and should play out very similar to those first two games.

The extra rest that comes in the post season can be a big help when it comes to playing defense. This matchup calls into a system to play on the under when one of the teams is a well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, and they have won 51% to 60% of their games on the season and playing against another team with a winning record. This system is 226-159 (59%) to the under for the last 5 seasons.

Nets Head Coach P.J. Carlesimo is 37-17 to the UNDER in home games off a road loss in all games he has coached since 1996. Tom Thibodeau is 20-6 to the UNDER after allowing 105 points or more as the coach of Chicago. With the day off coming into this game I expect both teams to step up their defensive efforts and that will keep this game under the total.

3* Main Event on Denver Nuggets -

The Nuggets style of playing small and running has worked well all season. They know they are in a must win situation tonight because they cannot afford to fall behind 3-1 in the series. The Warriors have several key injuries that will catch up with them today. David Lee is out with a season ending hip injury. Stephen Curry has stepped up his offensive production, but he is playing with a bad ankle that was sprained late in the second game of the series.

After the two point thriller in the third game of the series there is a favorable situation for the road team. You should play on road teams when the line is +3 to -3 after a road game where both teams scored 100 points or more and they are a well rested team playing 6 or less games in the last 14 days. This system is 34-10 (77%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.

The Warriors have averaged 58.5% shooting in the last two games. Even the best shooting teams in the league can not continue at that pace for long. The Nuggets are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games when playing with 1 day of rest. They are playing in a must win situation and should pick up a win today.

3* No Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks

The Atlanta Hawks are getting a lot of respect being favored in this game after starting out 0-2 to the Pacers. They have certainly earned that respect with a 25-16 record at home. The Pacers on the other hand have had their challenges on the road ending the regular season with a losing record of 19-21.

Most of the Pacers struggles on the road this season have come because of poor offensive play. There defense has been respectable holding opponents to 91.5 points per game but the offense has scored an average of just 91.8 points per game. Those numbers are a recipe for disaster considering the Hawks are naturally one of the better teams the Pacers have faced this season.

Indiana is 5-13 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. In head to head matchups between these teams the favorite is 21-6 ATS in the last 27 meetings and when playing at Atlanta the Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. The Hawks should have no problem picking up their first win in the series on their home court today.

4* Total No Brainer on Bulls/Nets UNDER

After Thursday's game between these teams it is obvious that both the Bulls and the Nets are struggling to put points on the board this postseason. This series has now fallen into a system to play on the UNDER when the total is between 170 and 179.5 points and the road team scored 35 points or less in the first half of their last game, and the home team is coming off a combined score of 160 points or less. This system is 25-6 (81%) to the UNDER.

The Nets have an average defense, holding opponents to 94.8 points per game. However, their defense performs much better when they are well-rested which is why the Bulls have not been able to do a lot of scoring in this series. Brooklyn is 19-6 to the UNDER when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season. It is a similar story for Chicago as they are 11-3 to the UNDER in that same scenario.

The Brooklyn Nets are not shooting well, averaging just 35% in the past two games of this series. The Bulls have not been shooting well either, but that is to be expected from a team that averages 92.9 points per game and is up against a solid defense. The Bulls have been phenomenal on the defensive end of the court when they are playing at home. Chicago has held opponents to 90.5 points per game and with Brooklyn being an average scoring team, at best, this game should stay well under the total.

3* No Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets +1

Golden State is getting too much credit coming into this game as a favorite. The Warriors may score 101.5 points per game at home. but their defense has also given up 100.4 points per game this season. Now they face a Denver Nuggets team that has no problem lighting up a scoreboard as they average 106.2 points per game.

The Nuggets gave up 64.6% shooting in the last game against Golden State and there is no way the Warriors will be able to duplicate that performance. That phenomenal shooting performance has forced the oddsmakers to tighten this line more than they should have. You should always play on road teams like Denver when they are shooting 33-36.5% on 3 point attempts playing against an average 3 point defense when they are coming off a game they allowed a shooting percentage of 55% or more. This system is 62-34 (65%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.

Another anomaly that should correct itself tonight is the fact that Golden State has managed to outrebound the Nuggets. Denver averages 55 rebounds per game on the road with 13 coming on the offensive end of the court. The Warriors are averaging 52 overall and 11 offensive rebounds. I expect the Nuggets to come out with a solid shooting performance and win the battle of the boards as they pick up a road win against the Warriors tonight.

4* Vegas Insider on Boston Celtics -

The Knicks are a team that has a bad habit of becoming overly confident. That explains they why are 3-15 ATS in road games after having won 6 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. Boston has done a great job of responding to losses against division opponents and that mentality is what landed the Celtics in the playoffs. Boston is 13-3 ATS off a road loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

The Knicks have struggled to get points on the board against Boston even though they own a 2-0 advantage to start the series. They are shooting 41.3% in the playoffs which has them trending in the wrong direction. They may not shoot as poorly as they have tonight, but playing on the road should make it near impossible for them to keep pace with a Celtics team that has such a strong home court advantage.

The Celtics are shooting 47.7% at home this season where they own a 27-13 straight up record. They have held the Knicks to an average of 86 points per game in the playoffs. The added energy from playing on their home court should be more than enough to give Boston the edge tonight.

5* Total Dominator on New York/Boston OVER

The first two games between these teams have been a bit of a statistical anomaly. It is unlikely that Boston will continue to shoot 39.25% like they have so far. New York has shot well below their 44.7% average going 64-155 shooting 41.29% in the playoffs. With the Celtics averaging 47.7% at home they should have no problem putting more points on the board for today's game.

You should always play on the over when one team is coming off a blowout win by 15 points or more against an opponent that scored 80 points or less in two straight games. This system is 46-20 (70%) to the OVER. The reason this particular situation results in such a high percentage of games going over the total is because teams will make offensive adjustments when they are struggling to score while the oddsmakers are forced to lower lines to match scoring trends.

Defensively neither team has been great this season. The Knicks are allowing 97.4 points per game when playing on the road while Boston has allowed 96.5 per game. The change in venue is just the spark these teams need to start putting points on the board and because of their poor shooting to start this series the oddsmakers have been forced to set this total much lower than it should be.

4* No Limit on Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies received a much needed break after starting their series against the Clippers at 0-2. They have performed much batter at home than on the road this season going 32-9 when playing in Memphis. The Grizzlies style of play is playing tough defense and beating teams up in the pain which is something they were unable to do on the road against Los Angeles. I expect to see a rejuvenated team show up tonight with the Zach Randolph staying out of foul trouble and making a larger contribution than he has been able to in the previous two games.

Memphis has held opponents to 87 points per game on their home court on 42.7% shooting from the field. It is extremely unlikely that the Clippers will be able to continue shooting over 51% in game three of this series. It may come as a surprise to many but the Clippers are not a great team on the road. They have a 24-17 straight up record and they are below .500 ATS.

With game two being decided by just two points in Los Angeles the Grizzlies have shown they can compete with the Clippers. Memphis is 8-0 ATS in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. A little rest and a change in venue is more than enough the swing the outcome of this game in favor of the Grizzlies.

5* Total No Brainer on Memphis UNDER

The Grizzlies are known for their defense and physical play in the pain. Playing at home with rest should help their defense step up the level of play in the post season. Memphis is 12-1 (92%) to the under when playing 4 or less games in a 10 day span this season.

This matchup also falls into a system to play on the under when the total is 179.5-189.5 points in a game involving two teams holding opponents to 43.5-45.5% shooting and the road team is a good ball handling team averaging 14.5 or less turnovers per game against an average pressure defense that forces 14.5-16.5 turnovers. This system is 41-22 (65%) over the last 5 seasons.

The last two games have gone over the total because the Clippers have been able to shoot an average above 50% from the field. A change in venue is more than enough to slow the Clippers down and the Grizzlies are not a team that lights up the scoreboard at home averaging just 93.2 points per game. The under is the value play in a game that should end up being a defensive battle.

3* Total Dominator on Brooklyn/Chicago UNDER

After the Bulls let the Nets score 106 points in the series opener we saw a defense oriented game plan in the second game of this series. The series is now tied at 1-1 which places this game in a system to play on the UNDER. Over the past 5 seasons you would have an 80-42 (66%) record if playing the under in a playoff series that is tied.

The venue has now moved to Chicago where the Bulls have held opponents to 90.9 points per game. The Bulls are 25-16 to the under in home games on the season. Defensively the Nets are not far behind Chicago holding opponents to 95 points per game. In the playoffs they held Chicago to 89 points in game 1 of the series and 90 points in game 2.

The under is 19-9 in the Nets last 28 games being played on 2 or more days of rest. In head to head meetings being played at Chicago the under is 5-2 and the Bulls are 5-1 to the under in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals game. The oddsmakers have set the total far too high for a matchup that features two strong defensive units and a pair of offenses that rarely light up the scoreboard with points.

5* NBA Total Dominator on Lakers/Spurs OVER

The first game in this series stayed easily UNDER the 191 total that was set and in the second to last regular season game the teams played well UNDER the posted total of 193. However, dropping this total down to 186.5 is an over-adjustment by the odds makers as I think you will see both teams play better offensively here tonight.

The Lakers are giving up 46.3% from the floor on the road and 38.3% from 3-point range while San Antonio shoots 49.4% from the floor and 38.3% from deep at home. The Lakers shoot 45.8% from the floor while the Spurs allow 44.2%. The fact that both teams shot 41.1% or worse the last two times these two teams met and have hit less than a third of their 3-point attempts means it's time for some regression back to the mean.

The Lakers are 10-2 for the OVER this year when taking to the road to face a team that outscores their opponents by 3+ ppg. This one goes OVER the low total here tonight.

3* Vegas Insider on Atlanta Hawks +7

I think Atlanta comes to play here tonight after getting it handed to them in Game 1. The Hawks actually shot well, making 50% from the floor and 41.2% from 3-point range in the first matchup. The problem was Atlanta allowed Indiana to shoot 34 free throws and out rebound them by 12, including nine on the offensive end.

Atlanta doesn't usually have a problem with fouling, and Indiana isn't particularly good at drawing fouls, so I expect the free throw disparity to be much closer tonight. The Hawks aren't as good of a rebounding team as the Pacers, but they can make up for a small disadvantage due to their excellent shooting.

Atlanta is 18-7 ATS on the road revenging a double digit loss to an opponent the last three years while Indiana is 31-49 ATS off a home with the last three seasons. I think Atlanta rebounds tonight so I'll take the points.

5* NO BRAINER on Denver Nuggets -

Denver is one of the hottest teams in the league right now, having won 24 of their last 27 games. That puts them in a favorable situation as you want to play on favorites that have won at least 20 of their last 25 games who are winning between 60-75% of their games on the season. These teams have gone 63-35 ATS (64.3%) over the last five seasons. The Nuggets are 15-6 ATS when playing a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season.

This is a good matchup for Denver as they are 17-6 ATS against teams who make 36% or more of their 3-point attempts the second half of the last two seasons (Golden State hits 40.3%) and 19-9 ATS against teams who score 99+ points per game this year (the Warriors put up 101.1 ppg).

When you look at how each team has done at the pay window recently you'll notice the Warriors have been cashing tickets while the Nuggets have been costing their backers money. Don't worry as both teams are quick to buck the trends. Golden State is just 2-10 ATS on the road after covering two or more straight games this year while Denver is 11-2 ATS after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread this year.

I'll take Denver.

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Chicago Bulls +

The Brooklyn Nets had their way with the Chicago Bulls in Game 1 of this series, and now with the number basically unchanged the public is all over the Nets in Game 2. However, I think Chicago is going to pull out the cover tonight by keeping this game close.

The Bulls won three of the four regular season games and their sole loss was by four points, so one game isn't enough to make me think Chicago suddenly forgot how to play these Nets. Brooklyn is a hot time right now, I'll give them that but they are not a great offensive team so the 106 points they just put up is a bit of an outlier. Chicago will use that embarrassment as motivation to bring their A games tonight.

The Bulls are 23-12 ATS after an over this year and 22-10 ATS when failing to cover in two straight games the last two seasons. The Nets are just 25-41 ATS after covering the last two years and 11-23 ATS at home after a win. This is a perfect rebound situation for Chicago and I think they can easily pull off the upset.

4* Total Dominator on Lakers/Spurs UNDER

These two teams met just a week ago in LA and the final score was 86-91. I know Steve Nash will be playing tonight and he normally ups the tempo and creates on offense, but the Lakers are not as good offensively without Kobe Bryant on the floor. Against the Rockets in their final regular season game they went well under the total as well.

San Antonio is an under-rated defensive team that only allows 94.3 ppg at home. They are coming off a high scoring first half in their last game, but the Spurs are 11-3 UNDER this season after putting up 60 or more in the first half of their previous game.

The Lakers are 17-7 UNDER the last two years against teams that score 103+ ppg while the Sprus are 23-13 UNDER this year against teams above .500. This one will be low scoring so take the UNDER.

5* NBA No Brainer on San Antonio Spurs -

The Spurs are one of the best teams in the league, even if they have had some injury problems the second half of the season, and that has spelled trouble for the Lakers. LA is just 9-20 ATS the last two years against teams with a winning percentage of above 70% and they are 24-43 ATS against teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ ppg.

San Antonio on the other hand takes care of business against teams they should beat, going 10-1 ATS at home the last two years against teams winning between 50% & 60% of their games. You also want to take favorites of between 3.5 to 9.5 points who score 102+ points per game against a defense that gives up between 98-102 ppg after allowing 105 or more in two straight. These teams are 62-32 (66%) since 1996.

The Spurs coasted into the playoffs, losing their last three games and seven of their last 10. That has just given us a couple of points of value as expectations are lower. The Lakers spent a lot of energy just to get into the playoffs and I think that will spell a letdown tonight.

4* NBA HEAVY HITTER on Indiana Pacers -

Indiana is showing some value here today after losing their last six at the pay window to close out the season and five of their last six straight up. They were really in kind of a no-man's land after the Knicks came on strong so didn't have much to play for.

It's tough to pass up this low of a number when you see how Indiana has played a home. The Pacers are outscoring opponents by eight points per game, while the Hawks have a losing record on the road. These teams know just how important it is to protect the home court advantage and how important it is to win Game 1. I think the better team will come out focused, ready to play, and take care of business this afternoon.

4* "Never Lost" Total on Grizzlies/Clippers OVER

These two teams have gone UNDER the last three times they have faced off, but that has created some value in tonight's number. The total back on 3/13 when these two last met in LA was 185 and only went UNDER by four points, which would have put us OVER tonight's number.

The Clippers are an offensive force, especially at home where they are putting up 104.1 ppg on 49.3% shooting and 37.2% accuracy from behind the 3-point line. Memphis is a solid defensive team, but they are giving up 4 more points per game on the road than they do at home.

The line sitting at -4.5 puts us in a perfect situation here tonight as the Clippers are 7-0 OVER as a home favorite of six points or less this season, with those games averaging 207.2 ppg.

3* Bailout on LA Clippers -

I like the home teams in this series. The Clippers are a strong offensive team at home while the Memphis defense slips a little bit when taking to the road. This series depended on the pace of the game this year, the one time things slowed down the Grizzlies came out on top. The three games that were played with a fast tempo all went to the Clippers.

Last year LA went to Memphis and won Game 1 to help them steal the series in seven games. That knowledge has to be on the forefront of their minds as they know this Game 1 is going to be important if they want to protect their home court and advance.

I like the home team laying the small number here tonight so take the Clippers.

3* HIGH ROLLER on Boston Celtics +


If you look at the last two games between these two teams over the past 30 days you would think New York has Boston's number. The Knicks won 108-89 at home on 3/31 and 100-85 in Boston on 3/26. Those two victories were towards the beginning of an impressive 13 game win streak to close out the year and help New York land the No. 2 seed in the East. That has lead the Knicks to be a little over-valued heading into the first round of the playoffs.

Boston on the other hand is under-valued. The Celtics are a team that has risen to the occasion under Doc Rivers and I expect them to do so again here today. While Boston has had playoff success as of late, Carmelo and the Knicks have not. Anthony has a 17-37 record in the playoffs during his career and New York hasn't won a playoff series since the 1999-2000 season.

The Celtics finished their season with a loss at Toronto that sets up an interesting situation here. Boston is 12-2 ATS off a road loss to a division rival the last three seasons while Rivers is 33-16 ATS off a loss against a division rival since taking over as coach of the Celtics.

I'll take the Celtics in Game 1.

5* Total No Brainer on Celtics/Knicks UNDER 189.5

I don't expect a lot of points in this game tonight, largely due to how both teams will ratchet up the defensive intensity. Last year Boston scored 89.5 while holding opponents to 88.5 in their 20 playoff games.

Neither team is a slouch on defense to begin with as the Knicks are giving up just 94 points per game at home and the Celtics allow just 96.7 ppg overall. The last three times these two teams have squared off the game has gone UNDER the total.

The other thing I like about the UNDER here is that New York is getting Tyson Chandler and Marcus Camby back for this one. Those two guys will only solidify the Knick defense and make it more difficult for Boston to score.

The last five games for Boston have gone over the total which has given us inflated this number for us a little bit and it's too good of value to pass up on. New York is 8-0 for the UNDER at home against teams making 46% of more of their shots in the second half of the last two seasons.

4* No Brainer on Philadelphia 76ers +

The Indiana Pacers have sealed their postseason fate. There is no way they are going to be giving 100% in today

3* Oddsmakers Error on New Orleans Hornets +

The Dallas Mavericks may have thrown in the towel on their season. They are coming off a six point loss to Memphis on their home court and they missed the playoffs by four games. This matchup falls into a system to play against a home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Dallas when they are coming off a loss against a division rival and they have won 40-49% of their games on the season, playing against a team with a losing record. This system is 25-11 (69%) over the last five seasons.

New Orleans is 15-5 ATS in road games when playing against a team winning 40% to 49% of their games over the last 3 seasons. They will be playing for a bit of revenge in this game as the Mavericks handed them an 18 point loss just a few nights ago. New Orleans may not have a great record this season, but they certainly know how to respond after a poor performance. The Hornets are 11-3 ATS when coming off a loss by 15 points or more this season.

3* No Doubt Rout on Hawks -

The Atlanta Hawk

4* Vegas Insider on Memphis -

These teams met back in February with Memphis picking up a 90-84 victory over Dallas. The Mavericks are 1-10 ATS over the last two seasons when they are revenging a loss where the team scored less than 85 points. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record.

Defensively the Grizzlies are one of the best teams in the league. They have held opponents to an average of 89.4 points per game this season. In their last five games they have held opponents to an outstanding 83.4 points per game so it is safe to say the Grizzlies defense is playing extremely well right now.

The Mavericks defense has been horrible this season. They are allowing 103.6 points per game in division matchups. It is tough for any team to win when they are allowing that many points. The Mavericks are not playing for anything in this game and the Grizzlies have won six of the eight head to head meetings between these teams. After missing the playoffs for the first time since 2000 the Mavericks should underwhelm for this matchup against Memphis.

3* No Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets

The Milwaukee Bucks have lost four straight games and three of those four losses came by double digits. Ever since the Bucks secured the 8th spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs it seems they decided to give up on the remainder of the regular season. You should always play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Milwaukee when they are coming off three or more consecutive losses when playing in an April game. This system is 36-13 (74%) ATS.

The Nuggets are averaging 103.6 points per game on the road while the Bucks are allowing 100.9 points per game at home. This matchup falls into another system to play on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Denver when they are scoring 102 points per game or more and playing against a poor defensive team that is allowing 98-102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 52-19 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Washington Wizards +

The Washington Wizards are 33-16-2 in their last 51 games against teams with a winning record. They are facing a Nets team that is playing on back to back nights traveling from Toronto after an 87-93 loss to the Raptors. Brooklyn

4* Heavy Hitter on Orlando Magic +

The Chicago Bulls have been playing down to their level of competition all season and they are getting far too much credit from the oddsmakers. Chicago is 10-19 against teams with a losing record this season and when that team is winning only 25% to 40% of their games that number tightens up to 4-13 ATS. When the Bulls have been a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points they are 6-22 ATS this season.

Chicago has secured their spot in the playoffs and they do not have much to play for at this point in the season. The Magic may not be making the playoffs this season, but they are still playing for pride and their home fan base. The magic are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing against teams from the Eastern Conference and they are 3-1-1 when those games have come against the Central division.