3* Total Annihilator on Wizards/Knicks OVER

Getting points on the board should be an easy task to accomplish in this game since neither of these teams have played well defensively this season. Washington is allowing 99.6 points per game this year, while New York has given up 101.7 points per game when playing at home. Both of those numbers are significantly higher than their opponents scoring averages have been this season.

This will be New York's fifth game in the last seven days, and their defense is already trending in the wrong direction as the wear and tear of this brutal stretch of schedule catches up with them. They gave up 106 points on Saturday to Atlanta. The Wizards are also playing through a touch stretch of schedule. This is their third game in the last four days, and they are coming off back-to-back performances allowing over 100 points per game.

Washington is the kind of team that responds with a big offensive performance when coming off an embarrassing loss. The over is 19-7 in the Wizards last 26 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points. The over is also 15-7 in Washington's last 22 games against Eastern Conference opponents. The Knicks on the other hand have posted an 8-3 record to the over in their last 11 homes games. I expect this game to be an offensive shootout that should easily exceed the posted total.

3* No Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -

The Pacers average margin of victory in home games is a whopping 13.2 points per games. They are off to an 11-0 start at home which is their best ever. To say things are going well for the Pacers would be a huge understatement. In the last three season's Indiana has dominated the series between these teams, posting a 7-1 straight up record and a 6-2 record against the spread.

A big reason for the Pacers success is their stingy defense. They have held opponents to 89.5 points per game overall, but when playing at home that number drops to an outstanding 83.1 points allowed. Their big, physical style of play will give them matchup advantages all over the court, and facing a team that is 5-6 on the road like Detroit tells me this game should end in a blowout.

The Pistons have struggled on the road against good three point shooting teams. They are 10-23 ATS in road games against teams making over 36 percent of their three point attempts. You should play against a team like Detroit when they are revenging a same season loss against an opponent, and they are coming off a cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This system is 166-104 (62%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns +

The Warriors have not played well recently. They have lost three of their last five games, and failed to cover the spread in four of those five. They are below .500 on the road this season, and face a Suns team that is an impressive 7-3 in home games. Phoenix is scoring 105.6 points per game at home this season, while the Warriors are allowing 101 points per game on the road. I think there is a lot of value with the Suns whenever they are playing on their home court.

We also have a favorable advantage with rest profiles. Golden State is playing their sixth game in the last 10 days, while the Suns will be playing in just their fourth during that same time-frame. Phoenix has been on fire recently, picking up wins in their last four consecutive games. They have continuously been undervalued by the oddsmakers, winning two of those four games straight up from the underdog position.

The Suns are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning record, and they are 16-5 ATS against Western Conference opponents. When playing on a single day of rest they have a 15-5 ATS record while Golden State has a 1-4 ATS record when they are on just one day of rest. In the last nine head-to-head meetings between these teams the home team is 7-2 ATS.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Sacramento Kings +

The Rockets have not played well on the road this year. They are allowing 109.7 points in those games, and they will playing in their third consecutive road game in the last four days tonight. The wear and tear of the schedule should catch up with them, and I expect Sacramento to play a very close game.

I think there is a lot of value on Sacramento based on the way these teams are trending. In their last five games the Rockets have shot considerably lower than their overall average this season. They have been below 45 percent from the field in four of those five games, which is quite a bit less than their average of almost 48 percent on the year. The Kings have been shooting well, and their defense has played incredibly well. They have held two of their last four opponents under 36 percent shooting from the field.

This matchup fits into a system to play on a team like Sacramento when they have scored over 100 points per game in four or more consecutive games in a game involving two poor defensive teams allowing over 102 points per game. This system is 61-32 (66%) against the spread over the last five seasons. I like Sacramento's chances to pull off an upset tonight at home, but we will take the points.

3* No Doubt Rout on Kansas State -

The Wildcats have a significant advantage over Troy in this game, and I am surprised to see this line as low as it is. This should easily be a 15+ point victory for Kansas State when they face a Troy team that averages a mere 58.7 points per game on the road. The Wildcats defense has played extremely well this season, holding opponents to 61.2 points per game overall, and 59.2 points when playing at home.

The Wildcats are +2 in rebounding margin, while the Trojans are -4 on the boards. Those extra rebounds should result in extra shot attempts for Kansas State, and against a Troy defense that has allowed 70 points per game on the road I think it gives Kansas State a very significant advantage. With the Wildcats outstanding defense, combined with the fact that they are playing against a poor defensive team on the road, I think they should easily walk away from this game with a big win.

There is a very large talent gap between the Big 12 and Sun Belt conferences. The Trojans may be 4-3 on the year, but they have played just one team from a major conference, and they ended up losing that game by 15 points. The Wildcats are hot, having won four straight games. Troy hasn't played a game in over a week, and I think Kansas State's matchup last Tuesday keeps them looking fresh on the court.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Manhattan -

The Jaspers are off to a great start this season posting a 6-2 overall record, including a 5-0 run on the road. They have been scoring at will against virtually every opponent they face, averaging 77 points per game. They face an NC-Wilmington team that has really struggled with their shot this season. The Seahawks have two games shooting under 30 percent from the field, and they have shot well under 45 percent in over half of their games this season.

Manhattan has a knack for stepping up their level of play against winning teams. They are 14-5 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. When their opponent is only a marginal winning team (between 51% to 60%) the Jaspers tighten up to a 9-1 ATS record. The Seahawks are a poor pressure defense team, getting just six steals per game. I don't think NC-Wilmington has an answer for Manhattan's George Beamon. The senior guard/forward averages over 20 points per game for the Jaspers, and he is shooting over 90 percent from the free throw line.

The Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games, and they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. Manhattan has posted a 23-7 ATS record in road games when playing against a team with a winning record at home. The Jaspers are also 13-5 ATS overall dating back to last season. This Manhattan team has been continuously undervalued by the oddsmakers, and we will continue to ride the Jaspers until they give us a reason to do otherwise.

3* Main Event on Syracuse -

The Orange are a perfect 9-0 this year and have quickly earned a reputation as one of the best teams in the country. Their size and speed give them an advantage over any opponent on the court, and I just can't see St. Johns being able to keep this game close. The Red Storm have been horrible to back when coming off a win, posting a 1-8 ATS record.

This game is going to come down to ball control, and Syracuse will have a huge advantage. The Orange average almost double the number of steals per game than the Red Storm. They are a completely different caliber team than St. Johns which is why I think they will easily pick up a win on the road today. Syracuse is +5 in overall rebounding margin, and +7 on the offensive glass. Their ability to outrebound St. Johns should afford them more shot attempts, and with the Orange shooting 49.1 percent from the field in road games that should make covering a 4.5 point line a very simple task.

Syracuse has dominated the non-conference portion of their schedule. They are 14-2 ATS after two consecutive non-conference games. They are also 11-3 ATS after three straight games committing 14 turnovers or less. St Johns is coming off a strong defensive performance against Fordham, and I think that has earned them a little too much respect from the oddsmakers. The Red Storm are 2-12 ATS after a game allowing 60 points or less.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Utah Jazz +

The Spurs are an old team, so rest profiles are a big factor in their games. San Antonio is playing in a back-t0-back situation when they are on the road against the Utah Jazz today. They were at home last night to take on Minnesota, and without a day of rest between games I am calling for this one to be much closer than the oddsmakers expect. San Antonio also had several players get more minutes than normal in their last game.

The Jazz are also playing in a back-to-back situation, but they were on the road against Denver last night, and had the luxury of sleeping in their own bets prior to this game. It hasn

4* No Brainer on Dallas Mavericks -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. The Mavericks have been incredibly good when playing at home this year. They have a 9-2 straight up record, and face a Milwaukee team that is just 3-8 on the road. Dallas averages 106.7 points per game at home this season, while Milwaukee has scored just 89.6 points per game overall.

The rest profiles also favor the Mavericks in this game. Dallas is playing with two days off after their four game span on the road. Milwaukee played last night at home against Chicago in a losing effort and now they are forced to play on the road for the second leg of back-to-back games. The Bucks have lost three out of their last four, and I can

4* Heavy Hitter on Portland Blazers -

The Portland Blazers have been the biggest surprise team in the NBA this year, and it seems the oddsmakers have still not caught on to how talented this 19-4 team really is. Portland is 17-6 ATS, averaging 106.4 points per game. They have a great opportunity to build on that number against a 76ers team that is allowing 109.2 points per game.

The 76ers are playing on back-to-back nights after getting crushed by Toronto on the road yesterday. The Trailblazers come into this matchup with a day of rest, and the better team that is more rested should easily win this game in a blowout. The 76ers are already a bad team defensively, and without fresh legs on the court this game should get out of hand quickly.

This matchup fits into a system to play against home teams like Philadelphia when they are being outscored by three or more points per game, and they are coming off three consecutive games scoring 100 points or more. This system is 122-70 ATS over the last five seasons. You should also play on road favorites like Portland after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games. This system is 198-124 against the spread.

4* No Brainer on Illinois-Chicago +

There is a lot of value on Illinois-Chicago as a double-digit underdog in this matchup with SE Missouri State. I don

5* Vegas Insider on New Mexico State +

The Aggies have several key advantages in this game. They are an excellent rebounding team, pulling in 36 boards per game, with 11 on the offensive end of the court. Drake has struggled on the offensive glass, getting outrebound by three boards per game at home this season. Also, the Bulldogs have played several Division III schools to pad there statistics, and I think it is very unlikely they will be able to match their 51.1 percent shooting from the field against the Aggies.

New Mexico State is great at drawing fouls. They average 31 free throw attempts per game, while Drake gets to the line and average of just 19 times per game. I think the Aggies will get several of the Bulldogs players in foul trouble early, and they should easily pull away down the stretch. I don

3* No Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -

The Hawks demolished the Knicks last time they came to Madison Square Garden, and the Knicks have not done a lot to convince me the outcome will be any different this time around. These teams met back on November, 16th and the Knicks were blown out with a 90-110 final score. New York has had all kinds of shooting issues this season, averaging just 42.4 percent from the field in home games.

Both of these teams are playing in a back-to-back situation, but it is Atlanta that is the more rested team. Prior to last night

3* Main Event on Kentucky +

The Wildcats are clearly the better team, and I think they will head to North Carolina and pick up a win in their first true road game of the season. We will take the points since they are on the road, but Kentucky is clearly the more talented team. The Wildcats are young, and the first 10 games of the season were a great opportunity for a new group of players to get used to being on the same team. The Wildcats two losses are very respectable, losing by just four points against Michigan State and five points against Baylor.

North Carolina has been wildly inconsistent this year. They have a loss to Belmont in a game they were a 14-point favorite. They also have suffered a four point loss against UAB. Much like the Wildcats, North Carolina is a young team. However, the Tar Heels did not benefit from signing four McDonald

4* Heavy Hitter on Tennessee +

The Wichita State Shockers have had a bad habit of getting off to a slow start, and against a hungry team like Tennessee that will be a big problem. The Shockers have been down at the half several times this season. Tennessee is one of the most improved teams in the SEC this season, and they are certainly talented enough to hang on to an early lead. Even if the Shockers are able to get off to a better start today, I don

3* No Doubt Rout on VCU -

The VCU Rams have a great pressure defense. They force a lot of turnovers, and that will be a problem for a small school like UNI. The Panthers took in-state rival Iowa State to overtime last week, and I think that performance has bought them a little too much credit from the oddsmakers. The Panthers have always played their in-state rival in a close game, and I don

5* Heavy Hitter on Golden State Warriors -

The Golden State Warriors have an explosive offense, and against a horrible defensive team like the Rockets I think they are poised to put a big number on the scoreboard. Combine that with a defense that plays exceptionally well at home and the Warriors become a strong value play. Golden State is 7-2 straight up on home games, while the Rockets are just 5-5 on the road.

The Warriors are averaging 104.8 points per game at home this season. They should score at-will on a Houston defense that has allowed 109.5 points per game on the road. This is also a revenge game for the Warriors. They were crushed when playing at Houston last week, and this time they have the benefit of playing host. I think they get their revenge with a strong first half, which is something that was missing the last time these teams met.

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these teams the favorite has a 9-4 ATS record. The Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against Pacific division teams, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Golden State had yesterday off, so they should be well prepared for Houston. The Rockets on the other hand played last night in a losing effort against Portland. With the rest profiles favoring Golden State I think they get a big win in this game.

3* Bailout Blowout on Phoenix Suns -

Phoenix has played well at home this season. They are 6-2 straight up, while the Kings are just 2-4 on the road. The Suns biggest advantage in this game is their defense. Sacramento has not done a lot of scoring in road games, and Phoenix is allowing just 99.9 points per game.

The Suns also have the benefit of playing on two days of rest coming into this game, while Sacramento is playing their fifth game in the last eight days. The oddsmakers have undervalued the Suns all season and that has led to a 15-5 ATS record. On their home court with the better rest profile I think Phoenix picks up a big win in this game.

This matchup fits into a system to play on home teams like Phoenix when they are playing in a double revenge situation having two straight losses against their opponent, when that opponent is coming off a loss of 15 points or more as a home favorite in their previous game. This system is 57-26 (69%) against the spread.

5* Pacific Division Total of the Month on Suns/Kings UNDER

The total on this game has been set far too high. The Kings only average 98.8 points per game, and they should struggle against a Suns defense that is playing with two days of rest. Sacramento is also playing with a day off, and with both teams being rested I think both defenses will play well tonight. Phoenix has allowed just 99.9 points per game this year.

Nothing about this game indicates that either team is going to be able to exceed their scoring average, or end up allowing more than their defensive average for points against. The total on this game reflects a potential shootout, but the numbers say this game will be a defensive battle. The under is a perfect 9-0 when Sacramento is on the road and coming off a blowout loss by 20 points or more. It is also 15-5 when Phoenix is coming off an upset win as a road underdog.

This matchup fits into a system to play the under when a team like Phoenix is facing a division opponent and they are coming off a road win against a division rival. This system is 66-30 to the under for the last five seasons. You should also play the under when the total is 200 points or more and there is a well rested team like Phoenix that is playing four or less games in the last 10 days, and have won between 51% to 60% of their games on the season. This system is 96-52 (65%) in favor of the under for the last five seasons.

4* No Brainer on Colorado -

Colorado picked up a huge win over Kansas in their last game and they now find themselves ranked in the top 25. The Buffaloes have a 9-1 record this season, and they are a perfect 7-0 on home games. Colorado has averaged 80.3 points per game at home this season, and Elon lacks the offensive talent to match that number today.

The Buffaloes defense is allowing just 65.6 points per game. They are an outstanding rebounding team on both ends of the court. They average 11 offensive rebounds per game, and combining those second chance attempts with their 48.2 percent shooting from the field at home and this game should be a blowout. Elon is -8 in rebounding margin on the road, while the Buffaloes have a +11 rebounding margin in home games.

Colorado is 11-3 ATS when playing only their second game in the last eight days. They are also 15-6 ATS after three or more consecutive wins. Elon on the other hand has posted a 1-11 ATS record in road games when they are coming off two straight games with nine or less offensive rebounds. Colorado is a very good team, and with home court advantage in the mile high altitude they should have no problem winning this game in a blowout.

4* Vegas Insider on Toronto Raptors -

The Raptors have several key advantages in this matchup with Philadelphia. Toronto has four new additions available for this game after making a blockbuster trade. They traded Gay, Gray and Acy to Sacramento in exchange for forwards Patrick Patterson, John Salmons and Chuck Hays, as well as getting guard Greivis Vasques. That will make them a very difficult team to defend against with the added depth.

The 76ers defense has been absolutely abysmal on the road this season. They are allowing 111.1 points per game, which is a big reason they have a 1-9 record in those games. Toronto should score at-will in this game, and with the added depth from their new additions I think they get an immediate boost defensively. The Raptors should also be able to force a lot of turnovers in this game. The last time these teams met the 76ers had 20 turnovers. Their average of 18 per game ranks them among the worst in the league.

This matchup fits into a system to play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Philadelphia when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 100 points or more, and they are coming off a game where they covered the spread but lost straight up as an underdog. This system is 96-53 (64%) over the last five seasons. The 76ers are also 4-14 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last two seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets +

The Nets have several key advantages in tonight's game against the Clippers. Los Angeles is playing their sixth consecutive road game tonight, and they are playing in a back-to-back situation. Last night the Clippers were on the road against Boston. Six games in nine days with all the travel is a difficult obstacle to overcome. Brooklyn on the other hand is playing their second straight game from the comfort of their home court, and they have benefited from a night of rest between games.

After a rough stretch to open the season, the Nets are finally playing as a team. They have quietly won three of their last five games, including two straight coming into this game. I think the Nets will put up some big offensive numbers against the Clippers. The first thing to go when players tire is their defense. Los Angeles is already allowing an average of 99.1 points per game, and playing on the road against several of Doc Rivers former all-stars will simply be too much to handle.

The Brooklyn Nets are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 games against Pacific division teams. In head-to-head meetings the Clippers have a 1-12 ATS record their last 13 games when playing in Brooklyn. The Clippers are playing in a letdown spot on the road today. They are 46-70 ATS in road games when coming off two or more consecutive wins. I think the Nets have a good chance to win this game straight up, but we will take the points against the Clippers.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Maryland -

When you look at performances against common opponents the Terrapins have performed much better than Boston College. Maryland has a four-point win on a neutral court over Providence, while Boston College has a four-point loss against the Friars. Boston College comes into this game with three wins, but all three of those wins have been close games, and they were against very soft opponents.

The biggest difference maker in this game will be defense. Boston College is allowing over 80 points per game at home this year. The Terrapins on the other hand have held opponents to just 65.3 points per game on the road. That 15-point difference is more than enough to make up for the extra three points the Eagles average offensively. I don't expect home court advantage to provide much of a boost. The Eagles have wins over Florida Atlantic and Sacred Heart at home, but both by slim margins. They also have a loss to Toledo in a game they were favored by 8.5 points.

The Eagles are a very poor rebounding team. They are -5 in the rebounding margin, while the Terrapins are +7 in that category. The Terrapins are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games, and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against ACC opponents. The Eagles seem like they have already thrown the towel in on the season. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall, and 1-4 ATS when coming off a straight-up loss. In head-to-head meetings between these teams the road team is 7-3 ATS.

4* No Brainer on Memphis Grizzlies +

We are getting a lot of value on Memphis as a six point dog on their home court. The Thunder couldn't keep up with the Grizzlies in last season's Western Conference semifinals, and in these teams first meeting since the playoffs it is Memphis that once again gets the nod. The Grizzlies have been solid defensively this year, and I don't see a scenario where Oklahoma City will be able to score enough points to cover this spread.

The Thunder have played poorly on defense, especially when on the road. They are allowing 100.7 points per game. The Grizzlies are coming off a confidence boosting win over Orlando, followed by a day off yesterday. For Oklahoma City this will be their fourth game in the last six days. The wear and tear of so many games in a short time span will catch up with the Thunder today.

The Grizzlies are 33-19 ATS against teams that are scoring 99 points per game or more. They are also 28-16 ATS against teams making 46% or more of their shots. The reason for their success against these strong offensive teams is because their physical style of play on defense. That is something the Thunder are not used to facing, and it creates a significant matchup advantage for the Grizzlies.

3* Oddsmakers Error on San Antonio -

This matchup has blowout written all over it, and I don't think the oddsmakers have given San Antonio enough credit. They are 16-4 this season, and facing a team that is 5-16. Milwaukee gets no home court advantage. They are 2-8 straight up and ATS in home games this year.

San Antonio is scoring 103.3 points per game on the road while Milwaukee has averaged 87.9 points per game at home. The Spurs hit a bit of a losing streak recently, dropping three of their last six games. I blame that on a rigorous schedule. After facing Indiana the Spurs received a couple days of rest, and they got right back to their winning ways against Toronto last night.

The Milwaukee Bucks are 13-34 ATS when coming off an upset win as an underdog over a division rival. They are also 15-28 ATS when coming off a game where they covered the spread. There is little-to-no consistency from the Bucks this year, and San Antonio should have no problem picking up a big double-digit win in this game.

3* Oddsmakers Error on LA Clippers -

This is an opportunity for Doc Rivers to get some revenge against his former team. This will be the first visit to TD Garden since Rivers coached his last game with the Celtics on May 3rd. He comes into this matchup with a team that is loaded with talent, and I expect the Clippers to be very well prepared for this game.

The Clippers are averaging 104.1 points per game. They will play against a Celtics defense that has been somewhat soft on their home court. Boston is allowing 96.1 points per game overall, but when playing at home they allow slightly more points at 97.6 per game. The Clippers on the other hand step up their level of defensive play in road games. They have held opponents to 97.6 points per game, but should easily keep Boston under that number since the Celtics are a below average team offensively.

The Clippers are also coming into this game with a day of rest, while Boston is playing on back-to-back nights. Boston has struggled against good teams, posting a 1-4 ATS record in their last five games against teams winning 60% or more of their games. The Clippers are 27-12 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, and that is a trend that should continue today.

3* No Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats -

The Magic have been horrible on the road. They have a 1-10 record, and the defense is giving up 106.5 points per game. Charlotte should have no problem putting up a big number against their soft defense. Charlotte averages just 92.2 points per game, but they dominate the boards and avoid turnovers so they should easily exceed that number in this game.

Defensively the Bobcats have played well this year. They are holding opponents to 92.4 points per game. A big reason for their defensive success is because they are +4 in the rebounding margin. In road games the Magic are -8 in rebounding margin. Those rebounds and less turnovers will translate into more shots per game, and thus the Bobcats should score more points than normal against the Magic.

This matchup fits into a system to play on a team like Charlotte when they have covered the spread in five of their last six games, and they have won 40% to 49% of their games on the season when facing a bad team that has won only 25% to 40% of their games. This system is 72-35 (67%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider on Duquesne +

This looks like a trap game for Penn State backers. The Duquesne Dukes have a lot of scoring potential this year, and they should easily keep pace with the Nittany Lions on a neutral court. The Dukes are scoring an impressive 81.5 points per game, and with Penn State giving up 77.5 points per game on the road I think there is a lot of value on Duquesne plus the points.

Another key factor swinging in Duquesne's photos is efficiency. The Dukes are a team that stays out of foul trouble, and they don't turn the ball over very often. Penn State is not a very turnover prone team, but they have had their issues with foul trouble. The Dukes have four players averaging double-digit scoring, with two of them put up a lot of points in the paint. I think they will challenge the Nittany Lion's big men, and get to the line early and often.

The Dukes are 15-5 ATS in road games when coming off a home win where they scored 85 points or more. I don't think Duquesne will be intimidated by facing a Big Ten opponent. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Big Ten. In fact, playing a major school like Penn State should only add motivation for the Dukes.

3* Main Event on Dartmouth +

Illinois has not had a lot of success covering these over-inflated double-digit lines this year. They have lost three of their last four games against the spread. Tonight they face a very underrated Dartmouth team. The Big Green are averaging 77 points per game this season, and they should have no problem staying within the 17 points they are being spotted.

Dartmouth is an outstanding shooting team. They are averaging 47.6% from the field, and even the Illini defense will struggle to slow them down. The Big Green will also have a rebounding advantage in this game. Dartmouth is averaging seven rebounds per game more than their opponents and Gabas Maldunas has been dominant on the boards, pulling in 9.7 rebounds per game.

Illinois is 4-13 ATS in home games when coming off a game where they covered the spread. The Illini are also 9-19 ATS when coming off one or more consecutive overs. The Illini have played nine games this season, while Dartmouth comes into this matchup with fresher legs having played just six games. Three of Illinois last four games have been decided by a single-digit margin, and I don't think they will shoot over 61% like they did against Auburn. Take the points on Dartmouth because this one should be much closer than the oddsmakers expect.

4* Heavy Hitter on Timberwolves +

The Detroit Pistons are a very poor free throw shooting team, and in a game that should be close game I like the Timberwolves to pick up the win. Minnesota is shooting 80% from the free throw line, while the Pistons are averaging just 67.7% from the line. The Timberwolves are the better scoring team in general, averaging 104.7 points per game. Meanwhile, the Pistons have been scoring 98.7 points per game on their home court.

Neither of these teams has played well defensively, but again I have to give the edge to Minnesota. The Timberwolves are playing with two days of rest while Detroit is playing on a single day. Minnesota is a great rebounding team, pulling in an average of 55 boards per game. Winning the rebounding margin and shooting better from the free throw line will be the key to Minnesota picking up a win in the game the oddsmakers expect to be very close.

This matchup fits into a system to play on a road team like Minnesota when the line is +3 to -3, they are coming off a home loss, and they are a well rested team playing just their third game or less in the last 10 days. This system is 34-10 (77%) against the spread. Also, the Pistons are 0-7-1 in their last eight games against Northwest division teams, and 6-20-1 in their last 27 games against Western Conference opponents.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Sacramento Kings +

The Kings got off to a slow start this season, but they have been playing a lot better recently. They have been within six points or less in five of their last six games, and I think covering a five point number against the Mavericks will be a task they can easily accomplish. Ben McLemore has been improving quickly, and with that improvement he has seen a rise in playing time. He hit a three-pointer that took the Kin=gs to overtime Saturday on the road against Utah. McLemore is a matchup nightmare for the Mavericks.

Dallas is coming off a hard fought battle with Portland on Saturday, and that has them playing in a letdown spot today. The defense has not been good this season, especially when playing on the road. The Mavericks are allowing 102.2 points per game on the road, which is a big reason they are just 4-6 straight up in those games.

The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous games. That angle matches up nicely with the fact that Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in their last six games when their opponent allowed 100 points or more in their previous game. The Mavericks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games, and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games played on a single day of rest.

4* Total Dominator on Warriors/Bobcats UNDER

Golden State is coming off a very strong defensive performance, holding the Memphis Grizzlies to just 82 points. The Warriors have struggled on the road this year with a 6-7 record, and a big reason for that is because of the offensive production hit they take when playing away from home. Against a team with a losing record like Charlotte you would think Golden State could score at-will, but the numbers indicate a different story.

The Bobcats have held opponents to a mere 91.5 points per game. They have a very underrated defense. The Bobcats have not done a lot of scoring this year, which only adds value to the under. They are scoring just 89.6 points per game overall, and only get a small boost in production to 90.1 points per game when playing at home. Both of these teams have strong under records. The under is 9-4 in Golden State's 13 road games, and 14-5 overall for the Bobcats.

This matchup fits into a system to play on the under when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points, and one of the teams is coming off a home win by 10 points or more and playing against an opponent off a road win by 10 points or more. This system has a 111-67 record towards the under. When playing with a day of rest the under is 14-5 in Golden State's last 19 games.

3* No Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats +

Golden State has not played well on the road this year, and there is a lot of value on Charlotte as an underdog in this game. The Bobcats are 5-6 at home, while the Warriors are 6-7 on the road. The Bobcats are playing on two days of rest after putting a 105-88 beat down on the 76ers last Friday. That was a confidence boosting win for a team that is just two games below .500 on the season.

The Bobcats defense gives them a big advantage over Golden State. The Warriors have been a streaky shooting team, and against a stingy defense like Charlotte's I think they will struggle to get points on the board. The Bobcats are holding opponents to a mere 91.5 points per game this season, and that has come against opponents whose offensive average is 97.7 points per game.

The Warriors have lacked consistency this year. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. They face a Bobcats team that is 4-0 ATS in their last four games. With Charlotte having an extra day of rest over their opponent, home court advantage, and the better defense they should be able to cover this six-point line.

3* Main Event on OKC Thunder -

Oklahoma City is a tough team to beat when they are playing on their home court. The Thunder are a perfect 9-0 at home, and there is a lot of value here since they are such a small favorite against the Pacers. Oklahoma City is averaging 105.7 points per game at home, while the defense is allowing a mere 97.1 points per game.

This is Indiana's fifth consecutive road game, and it will be the second time they have played on back-to-back nights during that stretch. The last time the Pacers played on back-to-back nights on the road they were handed a loss by the Portland Trailblazers. The Thunder on the other hand are coming into this game with a full day of rest which gives them even more value.

The Thunder are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams winning over 60% of their games on the road. In head-to-head meetings between these teams Oklahoma City has a very clear edge. In the last five games the Pacers have a 1-4 ATS record against the Thunder. Indiana's tough five-game road stretch will catch up with them today, so lay the points on the Thunder.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Orlando +

The Rockets are getting too much respect from the oddsmakers tonight. Orlando has had no problem scoring points on the road. They are averaging 99.7 points per game in their nine road games this season, and they face a Rockets defense that has allowed an average of 101.8 points per game. Houston has lost two of their last three games both straight up and against the spread, so they are not coming into this game with a lot of momentum.

Jameer Nelson is back in the lineup for Orlando. In his first game back from being out with a foot injury Nelson added 13 points and nine assists. Against the Rockets soft defense Nelson should have no problems finding an open man. Arron Affalo is coming off a 20 point performance. The Rockets are playing through several injuries tonight. Harden has an undisclosed injury, and while he is expected to play, I don't expect him to be at 100 percent.

This matchup fits into a system to play against favorites of 10 points or more like Houston after allowing 85 points or less in their previous game. This system has been very profitable over the long term, posting a 406-294 (58%) ATS record. I think the Magic play with a little extra motivation tonight since they will be up against Dwight Howard. Howard has bashed the Magic since leaving the team for the Lakers. Orlando has taken five of the last seven meetings between these teams, so this should be a close game.

4* No Brainer on Rhode Island +

Rhode Island is the better team, and I am not buying into any home court advantage for a small school like Detroit. The Titans are a poor team defensively, allowing an average of 74.7 points per game. They have played a fairly weak schedule, so it says a lot that they are allowing more points than their opponents offensive average. Detroit's scoring average is also very misleading thanks to some cupcake games at home where they were able to run up the score.

The Rams have a definite size advantage in this game. They are an excellent rebounding team, and they do a great job of avoiding turnovers. Rhode Island is outrebounding opponents by five boards per game on average. They have played a much stronger schedule than the Titans, facing the likes of Arizona and Providence. The Rams are not getting enough respect from the oddsmakers in this game, and their is a lot of value on them as an underdog against a much weaker team.

Detroit is 7-16 ATS in their last 23 home games, so clearly home court has not been an advantage for the Titans in a long time. The Titans are coming off an embarrassing road loss against Toledo. They are 5-15 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog. The Rams on the other hand are 10-2 ATS after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games.

3* Oddsmakers Error on George Mason +

Oklahoma might be the most overrated team in the country right now. They have a 7-1 record, but their most impressive win came by a single point in a neutral court battle with Seton Hall. They lost to Michigan State, and have yet to play another team worth mentioning. The Sooners defense has been horrible when they are playing away from home. They have allowed an average of 81.7 points in those games.

George Mason is playing in a great spot to pull off an upset against the Sooners. We will take the points, but it is hard not to like the Patriots chances with their outstanding defense. They have held opponents to just 64 points per game this season. The Patriots have out rebound opponents by four per game, while the Sooners are being out rebound by one board per game against a very soft schedule.

George Mason is 19-7 ATS when coming off a straight up loss. The Patriots are also 35-18 ATS in road games after two straight games giving up nine or less offensive rebounds. Oklahoma on the other hand is 7-18 ATS in road games after three straight wins by 10 points or more. Oklahoma's recent win streak over Little Rock, Texas A&M CC and Mercer has earned them too much respect from the oddsmakers. Take the points because this should be a very close game.

5* Total No Brainer on Jazz/Kings OVER

The total for this game is set much lower than it should be. Neither of these teams has played well defensively this season, and they are both capable of putting up big numbers on the offensive end of the court. The Sacramento Kings are allowing 102.2 points per game on the road this season. The Jazz get a big boost in offensive production on their home court, and against a soft Kings defense I think they will more than account for their half of the points needed to send this game over the total.

The Kings lack of success this year has not come from a lack of scoring. They are averaging 97.1 points per game, and they have a great opportunity to build on that number against a Jazz defense that is allowing 101.5 points per game. Utah's defense has been soft regardless of venue, so the fact that Sacramento is on the road should not slow them down in this matchup.

This matchup fits into a system to play the over when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points, when a team like Utah has won less than 25% of their games, they are coming off a road loss against a division rival, and they are playing a team with a losing record. This system is 38-11 (78%) in favor of the over. Expect a shootout between two bad teams because neither have played well on the defensive end of the court.

4* Heavy Hitter on Brooklyn Nets -

There is no denying the amount of talent on this Brooklyn Nets team. They are off to a slow start this season, but should get a much needed win tonight over one of the NBA's worst teams. Milwaukee is 4-15 on the season, and they have a mere two wins on their home court.

Brooklyn may not be lighting up the scoreboard on a nightly basis, but they should have no problem outpacing a Bucks team that averages just 88.6 points per game at home. The Nets are scoring 94.8 points per game on the road, and they have the benefit of facing a soft Bucks defense that is allowing 99.9 points per game this year. Brooklyn is also playing with a day of rest while Milwaukee is playing on back-to-back nights.

The Nets have responded well to a bad loss. They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Milwaukee is 16-35 ATS dating back to last season against Eastern Conference opponents. They are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight games when playing without a day of rest.

3* Total Dominator on Nets/Bucks OVER

With Milwaukee playing on back-to-back nights I expect their defense to be even worse than it normally is. They are facing a Brooklyn team playing with a much needed day of rest, so the Nets should be able to put a big number on the scoreboard. Milwaukee is allowing 99.9 points per game this season.

The Nets should score a lot of points against Milwaukee, but they will definitely allow a lot of points too. Brooklyn is giving up over 103 points per game on the road this season. Seven of the Nets last eight games have had the total set higher than the line we are getting today, and I think that is an overly aggressive move by the oddsmakers which creates value on the over.

The over is 11-1 in Brooklyn's last 12 games against a team winning less than 40% of their games. It is also 16-5-1 when when Nets are playing on one day of rest. The Bucks are also trending towards the over. They have gone over the total in five of their last seven games.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Memphis Grizzlies

The Golden State Warriors have not played well on the road this season. They have a 5-6 record in their 11 road games, with the defense allowing an average of 101.1 points per game. They have been plagued by turnover issues, and that gives the Memphis Grizzlies a significant matchup advantage on their home court.

The Grizzlies defense has been stingy this year. They are holding opponents to just 95.9 points per game. What makes that number so impressive is the fact that their opponents scoring average has been 100.7 points per game on the season. The Grizzlies are also a very good ball control team. They average just 14 turnovers per game.

Golden State is playing in a back-to-back situation. Last night they were on the road against Houston, and then had to catch a red-eye to get to Memphis for today's game. The Warriors are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games against Western Conference opponents. The Grizzlies on the other hand have posted a 10-1-1 ATS record in their last 12 games against the Pacific division.

3* No Doubt Rout on Colorado

The Jayhawks have played one of the most difficult schedules in college basketball to open the season, and it won't get any easier today when they are in the high altitude in Boulder, Colorado. The Buffaloes are off to an impressive 8-1 start this season. They have yet to lose a game at home, and there should be plenty of motivation from the home crowd with a ranked opponent in town.

Colorado is averaging 81.2 points per game at home, but the strength of this Buffaloes team has been their defense. They are holding opponents to a mere 64.9 points. Expect Kansas to struggle today since they area very young team that has not been playing well recently. They lost to Villanova, and almost blew their last game against UTEP. They have failed to cover the spread in three straight games, and they are facing a Buffaloes team that has covered the spread in three of their last four games.

Kansas lives and dies by their ability to out rebound their opponents. That is a battle they will lose today against Colorado. The Buffaloes are pulling in 40 rebounds per game, and when playing at home their opponents have averaged just 27 rebounds against them. Colorado is 11-1 ATS against teams that are outrebounding opponents by four or more per game. They are also 5-2 ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these teams.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Arkansas -

The Arkansas Razorbacks are off to a phenomenal 5-2 start this season. They have a big win over Minnesota on a neutral court, and they have won in blowout fashion in their four home games this season. Clemson is coming into this game overrated thanks to a 7-1 record. The only good team the Tigers have faced was also their only loss of the season. Clemson lost by six-points on a neutral court against UMass.

I think home court advantage at a big school like Arkansas will give them a very significant advantage in this game. The Razorbacks are averaging 93.7 points per game. They have earned that average by playing a very strong schedule to start the season. Along with their game against Minnesota, the Razorbacks have faced a very good Cal Bears team, and the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Clemson's soft schedule has made there defense look better than it is, and I don't see a scenario where they can continue to allow under 60 points to their opponent in this game.

The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record. When coming off three of more consecutive home games, the Tigers have a 2-6 ATS record on the road. The Razorbacks on the other hand have posted a 10-4 ATS record in their last 14 home games against a team with a winning record, and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.

3* Oddsmakers Error on UMass -

The UMass Minutemen are a very underrated team this season. They are off to a perfect 7-0 start, and they have big wins over quality opponents like Boston College, New Mexico and Clemson. This may be a neutral court game, but expect UMass to have the bigger fan base. This game is being played in Springfield, Massachusetts, just a 25 minute drive from Amherst.

The Minutemen should score at-will against this soft Cougars defense. BYU is allowing 83.2 points per game on the road. They have to face a Massachusetts team that has put up an average of 81.6 points per game. The Minutemen defense is solid, allowing just 68.2 points per game when playing away from their home court.

The Minutemen are not a team that gets intimidated by a winning team. They are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against a team winning 60% or more of their games. They are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games. BYU is playing in a bad letdown spot after picking up a 30-point win over North Texas. The Cougars are 7-20 ATS following a straight-up win of more than 20 points.

5* Vegas Insider on Utah Jazz +

The Portland Trailblazers have been playing at an unsustainable level. They are a team that is nowhere near as good as their 16-3 record. There is a lot of value on Utah as a double-digit underdog in this game. The Trailblazers have not been a strong defensive team, allowing an average of 99.9 points per game. They have posted a 3-7 ATS record in their last 10 home games against a team with a losing record.

The Jazz have covered the spread in eight of their last 12 games. They are playing a lot better recently, winning three of their last five games straight up. Utah has shot over 50 percent from the field in two of their last three games, and I like their chances to keep this game close considering how well the team is playing right now.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system. You should play against favorites of 10 points or more when they have three consecutive wins, and a winning overall record on the season. This system identifies teams that oddsmakers overvalue, and it has resulted in a 125-84 (62%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on South Carolina +

This is simply too many points for the Cowboys to cover against a respectable basketball program like South Carolina. The Gamecocks may be coming into this game with a 2-2 record, but they have played a tough schedule facing the likes for Baylor and Clemson. Both of those losses came by a much smaller margin than the 17 points they are getting spotted against Oklahoma State today.

The Cowboys are coming off a loss to Memphis, and they have failed to cover the spread in their last three consecutive games. There has been a lot of hype surrounding Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart, but that has only created value on the Gamecocks. South Carolina has three players averaging double-digits in scoring, and they are averaging an impressive 39 rebounds per game. They are not a team that has a lot of turnovers with just 12 per game, so I don't see the Cowboys winning this game in a blowout.

Oklahoma State is 11-26 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss, and they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. South Carolina has covered the spread in two of their last three games. They are well rested having played just four games since their season started on November 9th, while the Cowboys have played seven games in that same time frame.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Memphis Grizzlies -

The Grizzlies are an easy call at home against the Clippers tonight. Los Angeles has struggled on the road this season, posting a 4-5 record in their nine road games. The Clippers have lost two straight games, and they have already failed in their first attempt to get revenge against the team that handed them a first-round playoff loss last season. Los Angeles looked horrible on Wednesday night, getting crushing in a 107-97 loss at Atlanta.

The biggest problem for the Clippers this season is their complete lack of defense. They are allowing 102.1 points per game, which is a big issue when your team only averages 100.1 points per game on the road. I think Los Angeles will struggle to reach their typical scoring average in this game because the Grizzlies have one of the most underrated defenses in basketball this season. They have held opponents to 95.6 points per game, and they are coming off a day of rest after a confidence boosting win over Phoenix on Tuesday.

The oddsmakers have a bad habit of undervaluing the Grizzlies against high scoring teams. Memphis is 19-8 ATS against teams scoring 103 points per game or more. The Grizzlies have been doing a great job of taking care of the basketball. They are 27-14 ATS after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers. With a day of rest coming into this game, and the Clippers playing in a back-to-back situation, there is a lot of value on Memphis tonight.

4* Total Annihilator on W. Virginia/Missouri UNDER

The Mountaineers defense is playing extremely well this season. They are coming off a performance in which they allowed just 47 points to Loyola-MD. The under is 6-1 in West Virginia's last seven games when they allowed less than 50 points in their previous game. Missouri averages 77.7 points per game at home, but they have played a very soft schedule through the first seven games of the season. Tonight's game will be the Tigers first matchup against a decent defense, so I don't think they will be able to match their scoring average.

West Virginia's offensive production takes a big hit when playing on the road. The team averages 85.1 points per game, but that dips down to 74.3 points in road games. The Mountaineers have played a much stronger schedule than the Tigers, but they have also gone under the total in two of the three games with a line posted. I think the Mountaineers will play a game very similar to the one against Wisconsin in which they scored just 63 points. Missouri is allowing 59.7 points per game at home, and they have one of the best defenses the Mountaineers have faced.

The total on this game seems to be set quite a bit higher than it should be when you consider how talented these teams are defensively. I think we are getting a lot of value on the under based on the amount of scoring these teams have done against some pretty soft non-conference opponents. Take the under in this game.

3* Main Event on New Orleans Pelicans -

The oddsmakers seem to have overreacted to the loss of Anthony Davis. Even without Davis in the lineup they are coming off their third consecutive win. The Pelicans three wins all came on the road, and now they are playing for the home crowd and coming off a day of rest. That gives them a significant advantage over the Mavericks in this game.

Dallas has played poorly on the road. They have a 2-6 record, and the defense is allowing 102.4 points per game. They also take a big dip in scoring, going from 103.7 points per game overall, to just 99.5 points in road games. New Orleans on the other hand should be able to score at-will in this game. They are averaging 104.2 points per game at home this season.

The Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against Western Conference opponents, and they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning record. In head-to-head meetings between these teams the Mavericks are 4-11 when playing as the road team. With Dallas playing on back-to-back nights, the Pelicans should have no problem picking up a big win in this game.

5* Total Dominator on Mavericks/Pelicans OVER

The total on this game is much lower than it should be given the way these teams have been playing recently. In their last five games, the Pelicans are averaging 109.8 points per game. They should have no problem putting up another big number tonight against a Mavericks defense that is allowing 102.4 points per game on the road.

The Mavericks should also score a lot of points in this game. New Orleans is allowing 101.9 points per game this season, and they have done so against opponents whose offensive average is just 97.7 points per game. The Dallas Mavericks come into this game scoring 103.7 points per game, and with the Pelican's complete lack of defense they have a very good chance to improve on that number today.

This matchup fits into a system to play the over when a team like New Orleans is coming off two consecutive road wins by five points or less, and they are playing in the first half of the season. The over has a 40-11 (78%) record in the last 51 games fitting into this scenario. In the last nine head-to-head meetings between these teams being played in New Orleans the over has a 7-2 record. I expect tonight's matchup to be another offensive showcase sending this game over the total.

4* Vegas Insider on Rutgers +

This is simply way too many points for Rutgers to be receiving considering the brutal stretch of schedule George Washington has played through recently. The Colonials are coming off games against Miami, Marquette and Creighton which makes this their fourth game in the last six days. Rutgers on the other hand is a very well rested team. Their last game was over a week ago, and I think the extra preparation time gives them a significant advantage over the Colonials.

The Scarlet Knights should have no problem keeping pace with George Washington on the offensive end of the court. They are averaging 76.9 points per game this season while the Colonials have averaged only slightly better at 78.4 points per game. The Colonials have also played a very soft schedule at home. In fact, they have not even had a line posted in their three home games this season.

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 5-1 in their last six road games against teams winning more than 60 percent of their games at home. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five road games overall. The Colonials on the other hand have struggled against non-conference opponents. They are 18-40 ATS in their last 58 non-conference games. There is no reason for the Scarlet Knights to be a double-digit underdog so we will take the points.

4* No Brainer on Toledo -

Detroit comes into this game with a 4-4 record, but the schedule has been very soft to this point in the season. That ends today when they take on the undefeated Toledo Rockets. The Titans have just one starters returning from last season, so they are a very young and inexperienced team. The Rockets on the other hand have four starters returning to a team that finished in second plays in the MAC West standings last year.

The Titans have struggled to score points on the road, averaging just 62.2 points per game. Toledo on the other hand has been hard to stop on the offensive end of the court. They are averaging 92.2 points per game, with a defense that is allowing a mere 62 points per game at home this season. The Rockets should dominate the Titans on the boards, and that should yield them a few extra offensive possessions. With Toledo averaging 52.4 percent from the field, and the Titans averaging a mere 39.7 percent shooting, the margin of victory for Toledo should be a big one this week.

This matchup fits into a system to play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9,5 points like Toledo when they are an excellent shooting team that is making over 52% from the field, and they are a good rebounding team that is outrebounding opponents by four or more per game. This system is 67-27 (71%) against the spread. I don't think the Titans will be able to stop the many scoring threats on this Rockets team, and Toledo should take this game by a double-digit margin.

4* Heavy Hitter on Sacramento Kings +

The Kings are not getting enough credit on their home court tonight. Oklahoma City has played three games in the last five days. The Kings on the other hand did not have to play last Wednesday, and I think their favorable rest profile is a big factor in this game. Sacramento managed to stay within six points against the Clippers last Friday, and they were within two points against Golden State on Sunday so they are playing well since the small break around Thanksgiving.

Oklahoma City has played some horrible defense on the road this season. They are allowing 102.3 points per game, and the Thunder are just 3-3 in road games this year. Sacramento is playing a lot better now than they did to start the season. They may not be winning more games, but they are definitely playing in some close games and covering the spread more often. The Kings are averaging 102.4 points per game over their last give games, and they have a 3-2 ATS record. They have played a very tough schedule during that stretch, and I think that has them well prepared for today's game against the Thunder.

The Kings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against a team winning 60% or more of their games on the season. They are up against a Thunder team that is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on a single day of rest. Oklahoma City evidently does not spend a lot of time preparing for opponents with a losing record. They have a 2-5 ATS record in their last seven games against teams winning less than 40% of their games. I think the Thunder will come out flat against Sacramento, and this game will end up being very close.

3* Bailout Blowout on Colorado -

Colorado is clearly the better team, and they have faced a much stronger schedule this season than their in-state rival. Colorado averages 78.5 points per game and they are shooting 46.6 percent from the field. They have dominated their opponents on the boards, pulling in 40 rebounds per game while allowing opponents just 29 rebounds per game. They have also done a great job of avoiding turnovers.

With the new rules changes in college basketball the Buffaloes have a big advantage. They have adjusted quickly, and they have managed to stay out of foul trouble. They are also a team that uses their big men to score a lot of points in the paint, and that has made them a good foul drawing team. Colorado is shooting 74 percent from the free throw line this season. I expect the Rams to give up a lot of free points from the line due to the fact that they are a much smaller team that will have mismatch problems with the big men in the lane.

The Rams do not get a much of a boost from home court advantage, posting a 2-7 ATS record in their last nine home games. They have also struggled against non-conference opponents with a 1-5 ATS record. Colorado on the other hand is 5-2 ATS against the Mountain West. The Buffaloes are also 7-0 ATS in road games when coming off a performance in which they allowed 60 points or less. Colorado has dominated the head-to-head series with the Rams, and I expect them to continue that success this year.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Utah Jazz +

The Jazz are not getting enough respect from the oddsmakers on their home court tonight. This is Houston's fourth game in the last six days, while Utah has played just two games during that span. I expect to see Houston beginning to wear down, especially after battling it out with the Spurs in their last game. The Rockets defense is already bad, but it should be even worse than normal today.

The Jazz may not have a great overall record, but two of their three wins have come on their home court, and they are a respectable 4-4 ATS in home games this season. The defense has been solid, allowing 99.2 points per game at home when their opponents are averaging over 100 points per game on the season. I think Utah has a great opportunity to boost their own scoring average today against a Rockets defense that is allowing 109.4 points in road games this season.

Houston is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games against a team with a losing record at home. This trend indicates the oddsmakers are giving the high scoring Rockets far too much credit against bad teams. The Jazz are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record, and they are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games against Southwest division opponents. I like Utah to keep this game close, and they should have no problem covering such a large number today.

3* No Doubt Rout on Western Kentucky -

There is a much larger mismatch between these teams than this 1.5 point line indicates. The WKU Hilltoppers have been a strong rebounding team, pulling in an average of 42 boards per game on the road while allowing opponents just 36 rebounds in those games. They are a respectable 4-2 overall this season, while Bowling Green has struggled to reach a 2-4 record.

The Hilltoppers will also have a defensive advantage in this game. They have held opponents to just 60.9 points per game. They are a smart team that stays out of foul trouble, but they are also aggressive enough on the defensive end of the court to hold their opponents to under 30 percent from beyond the three point line, and 41 percent from the field.

This matchup fits into a system to play on a road team like Western Kentucky when they have shot below 40 percent, but are facing a team allowing 42.5 to 45 percent, and they are an average ball handling team with 14.5 to 17.5 turnovers when they are facing a poor pressure defense that forces less than 14.5 turnovers per game. This system is 105-58 (64%) against the spread.

3* Bailout Blowout on Marquette PICK

The Golden Eagles may have more losses on the year than their opponent, but they are very respectable losses. Marquette was just two points away from pilling off a road upset against Arizona State, and they should have no problem picking up a win over the Aztecs in this game. San Diego State is nowhere near as good on a neutral court as they are at home. They are allowing almost 10 points per game more in road games than they have in their overall average on the season.

The Golden Eagles are the better scoring team in this matchup. Marquette averages 79.7 points per game on the road this year. They should dominate the boards in this game, which will give them more shot attempts than the Aztecs. Their 46.8% shooting percentage from the field tells me they will have no problem taking advantage of those extra attempts. The Golden Eagles are also a very good ball control team. They average just nine turnovers per game on the road this season.

Marquette is a team that always steps up their level of play against good teams. They are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against teams that are outscoring their opponents by 12 or more points per game. This matchup also fits into a system to play against a neutral court opponent like San Diego State when they average 74-78 points per game and they are facing an excellent defensive team like Marquette that allows 63 points per game or less, after leading their last three games by five or more points at halftime. This system is 64-29 (69%) against the spread.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Sacramento Kings +

Golden State has struggled on the road this year. They have a 4-6 record, so it is a bit shocking to see them as a favorite in this game. Their defense is soft, allowing 99.9 points in road games this season, and they are having a lot of issues with turning the ball over. The Warriors average 18 turnovers per game on the road, while the Kings have just 12 turnovers per game overall.

Sacramento's biggest advantage is their defense. They have held opponents to 98.6 points per game at home, and are allowing opponents to shoot a mere 35% from beyond the three-point line. That will be a major issue for the Warriors as they average 24 three-point attempts per game on the road, and are used to converting over 40% of those attempts. I think the Warriors will have a bad shooting night against this underrated Kings defense.

In the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams the Warriors are 0-4-1 ATS. Both of these teams are coming off back-to-back losses, and with home court advantage I think he Kings have a very good chance to end their current losing streak. Over their last five games Sacramento has averaged 101.2 points per game, and they are pulling in over 55 rebounds per game in that stretch.

3* No Doubt Rout on Philadelphia 76ers +

The Philadelphia 76ers are receiving way too many points against this 6-10 Detroit Pistons team. Detroit has been horrible defensively, allowing opponents to score 100.3 points per game against them. They are 4-15 against the spread when facing a team that averages 53 or more rebounds per game.

Philadelphia will be one of the best scoring teams the Pistons have faced this year. The 76ers are averaging 103.2 points per game overall this season. They have barely been slowed down when playing on the road, still averaging an even 103 points in this game. They are an outstanding rebounding team that has pulled in 56 boards per game, and if the dominate the boards in this game they will not even need the 8.5 points to cover the spread.

The 76ers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against opponents from the central division. They are a team that responds well to a bad loss, posting an 8-2 ATS record when coming off a double-digit loss at home. The Pistons on the other hand are a mere 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games. Take the points with Philadelphia in this game, because it will be a lot closer than the oddsmakers expect.

4* Total Annihilator on Rocket/Spurs UNDER

The Spurs should be able to control the pace of this game on their home court, and that means these teams will not be getting into an offensive shootout. San Antonio has held opponents to 89.3 points per game at home this season. The Spurs are scoring 101.4 points per game at home, and I doubt they will exceed that number today against a very underrated Rockets defense.

Houston may allow a lot of points per game, but that is because they also score a lot of points. Against the Spurs defense that scoring will be slowed down dramatically, and I think the talent of this defense will show in this game. The Rockets have actually held opponents to a lower shooting percentage from the field than the Spurs have this season. They are allowing those opponents to shoot 41.8% while San Antonio is allowing 42.6% from the field.

The under is 14-4 in San Antonio's games against teams that are scoring 103 or more points per game. The under is also 17-6 in San Antonio's last 23 games against teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game. The Rockets are also trending towards the under. They have gone under the total in nine of their last 13 games following an ATS win, and are 29-14 to the under against a team with a winning record.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Memphis Grizzlies -

The Brooklyn Nets are really having problems this year. They are off to a 4-12 start this season, and they are showing no signs of improvement in the near future. The defense has been horrible, giving up 105.2 points per game on the road this season. They are 2-8 straight up on the road and 3-7 ATS in those games.

Memphis may not be a high scoring team, but that should change today against the Nets non-existent defense. The Grizzlies have been solid on the defensive end of the court. They are holding opponents to 95.9 points per game, and they should improve on that number today. Brooklyn has struggled to get points on the board, averaging just 94.6 points per game on the road this year.

The Grizzlies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when they are coming off a performance in which they scored 100 points or more. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on two days of rest. The Nets are playing on back-to-back nights, so the Grizzlies also have the rest factor in their favor. I think Memphis dominates this game from the start, and they should pick up a double-digit win.

3* No Doubt Rout on Colorado -

This game is going to be more lopsided than the oddsmakers expect. Colorado is a very good team this year, with their only loss coming in the season opener against a ranked Baylor team. They will face an Air Force team that is just 3-3 to open the season, and the Falcons have earned that record facing a very soft schedule.

Air Force is not a strong team defensively. They are allowing more points than their opponents have averaged this season at 70.5 points per game, and they are in big trouble today against a Colorado team that is scoring 78.1 points per game. The Buffaloes defense has been solid, holding opponents to 66.4 points per game when those opponents offensive average has been over 72 points per game.

The Falcons are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. Air Forced was crushed by Richmond in their last outing. They have had two days of rest since their last game, while Colorado is coming off five days of rest. With conditioning being a major issue early in the reason, rest profiles are a very valuable factor. You should also play on road favorites like Colorado when they are coming off three or more consecutive wins and playing in November. This system is 39-14 (74%) against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors +

The Toronto Raptors are a better team than they get credit for, and I like their chances to play a close game with Miami today. The Raptors have won two of their last three games, and came close to picking up a win in their last game over Brooklyn. They come into this matchup with two days of rest and preparation time while the Heat have just one day off and are coming from a road game against Cleveland.

Toronto has held its opponents to 96.9 points per game this year. Their opponents offensive average is over 97 points per game, so the Raptors are a strong team defensively. They should have no problem putting up points in this game since they are averaging 98.4 per game when playing at home. These teams met in Toronto earlier this season with the Raptors losing by nine points. That game was much closer than the final score, and I think Toronto plays for revenge today.

The Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. This matchup fits a system to play on home underdogs like Toronto when they are an extremely well rested team playing five or less games in 14 days when they have a losing record on the season. This system is 41-15 ATS over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Arizona -

Arizona outmatches Duke in size, and their physical style of play should wear the Blue Devils down quickly. The Wildcats are dominating opponents on the boards, pulling in 43 rebounds per game while opponents are averaging just 28 against them. Duke is not a strong rebounding team, averaging 33 boards per game and allowing opponents to pull in 33 rebounds as well. Those numbers have come against a soft schedule for the Blue Devils, so I expect a team like Arizona to really put it on them today.

The Wildcats are shooting over 51% from the field which puts them right in line with Duke from a scoring standpoint. They have an outstanding defense and should control the pace of this game. They have held opponents to just 58.3 points, while Duke is allowing 74 points per game. Duke's opponents are averaging almost 45% shooting from the field, while Arizona has held its opponents to just 34% shooting. With advantages on both ends of the court there is no reason the Wildcats can't win this game by a much larger margin than the oddsmakers expect.

Arizona's outstanding defense has suited them well against teams that rely heavily on three point shots to win games. They are 16-5 ATS in road games against teams shooting over 41% from beyond the three point line. The Wildcats have also posted a 14-5 ATS record in non-conference games over the last two seasons. The Blue Devils are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against teams winning 60% or more of their games, and they are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win. The oddsmakers have given the Blue Devils a little too much credit against a top tier team like Arizona.

3* Main Event on Butler -

This game is going to be a lot more lopsided than the oddsmakers expect. Butler is a very good team this year. They are 4-0 and averaging 75.7 points per game, but the strength of this team is actually their defense. They have held opponents to a mere 65 points per game. The Bulldogs defensive success comes from their outstanding ability to force turnovers and get blocks in the paint. They are also a solid rebounding team that does not allow their opponent many opportunities for second chance points.

Washington State has been a big disappointment through the first four games this season. They have a 2-2 record with some pretty embarrassing losses in their last two games. They suffered a 16 point loss at the hands of Gonzaga, and lost to TCU by two-points when they are a 14 point favorite. The Cougars have been a very poor shooting team, averaging just 40.3 percent from the field.

The Bulldogs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS loss. They have also been a dominating team when playing on a neutral court posting a 37-15 ATS record. The Cougars on the other hand have struggled on a neutral court. They are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral court games, and I expect that trend to continue today against the Bulldogs.

3* No Doubt Rout on Syracuse -

The talent gap between these teams is a lot more significant than the three point line indicates. Baylor barely squeaked by Dayton in their last game. The Bears shot 50% from the field in that game and still won by just a single point. I don't think they can continue to shoot as well as they have, especially against a stingy defense like the Orange have.

Syracuse averages 83.5 points per game on the road this season. Their defense has held opponents to just 63.7 points per game. They run a zone defense that is very difficult to score on, and they have perfected it. They Orange are averaging 10 steals per game, which is over double the amount of steals from Baylor. They have also done a better job of avoiding turnovers, committing 10 per game while the Bears are committing an average of 14 turnovers per game.

Syracuse is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. They have a history of dominating the Big 12, posting a 10-4 ATS record in their last 14 games against Big 12 opponents. Baylor on the other hand has struggled against the ACC. They have a 1-4 ATS record in their last five games against Atlantic Coast opponents. I think the Orange's zone defense will be too much for the Bears to handle, and they win this game in a blowout.

3* No Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -

There are few teams in basketball scoring as many points as the Houston Rockets this season. The Rockets average 108.7 points per game, and they have the luxury of facing a soft Hawks defense in this game. Atlanta is allowing an average of 101.1 points in road games. Offensively the Hawks have scored a lot of points this year, but they are still 8.5 points per game behind the Rockets.

Houston has yesterday off to rest and prepare for this game against Atlanta. The Hawks on the other hand are coming off a beat down last night at the hands of the Orlando Magic. Getting clubbed by 17 points on your home court would take a lot out of any team, and I think they will struggle to keep pace with this high-powered Rockets team today.

This game falls into a very profitable system. You should play against road teams like Atlanta when they are coming off a double-digit loss as a favorite of six points or more, and they are a team that has won 51% to 60% of their games on the season, and they are playing a team with a winning record. This system is 26-6 (81%) against the spread.

3* Total Dominator on Wizards/Bucks OVER

It is a little surprising to see such a low total in this game given how poorly these defenses have played this season. The Wizards are allowing 102 points per game, while the Bucks are not far behind at 100.2 points allowed. Both teams are allowing opponents to shoot over 47 percent from the field.

The Washington Wizards are averaging 100.3 points per game this year. They should have no problem exceeding that number against Milwaukee today. Washington has been on fire on three-point attempts, making 41.2 percent in the road this season. Milwaukee is also a team that shoots well on three-point attempts. They average 41 percent from beyond the arch in home games.

I have these teams playing in a shootout, and I expect to see a lot of three-point shots falling. The over is 11-5 in Washington's last 16 games against Eastern Conference opponents. This matchup falls into a system to play the over when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points and one of the teams is off a road loss against a division opponent like Milwaukee, and they are a terrible team winning 25% of their games or less and facing another team with a losing record. This system is 37-11 (77%) in favor of the over.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Cal +

The Cal Golden Bears are a very good basketball team this year. They are averaging 77.5 points per game and have been dominating the boards pulling in 41 rebounds per game to just 30 from their opponents. Cal is also a very efficient team. They have averaged just 11 turnovers per game this season, again giving them an edge over Dayton.

Defensively Dayton has been soft this year. Their opponents have shot 47.8% against them in road games, and they are not forcing many turnovers. That gives Cal a big matchup advantage since they are holding opponents to a mere 65 points per game this year, and allowing a 38.1% shooting percentage from opponents. The Bears outmatch Dayton from all of the key angles. They are scoring more points, getting more rebounds and committing less turnovers.

The Golden Bears are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against a team winning 60% of their games or more. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven neutral court games. I think Cal is talented enough to win this game. They have the better defense, a very talented offense and their rebounding advantage should get them a lot of second chance points against the Flyers.

4* No Brainer on Wisconsin -

I don't think St Louis is as good as their 5-0 record this season. Their opponents have been soft, and winning five games doesn't mean much when they have been double-digit favorites in each of those games. Wisconsin on the other hand has played a tough schedule, facing teams like St Johns and Florida. Their stronger schedule will have them more prepared for this game.

The Badgers are averaging 80.2 points per game this season. They have done a great job of avoiding turnovers, and they are shooting lights out from the field. Wisconsin averages 49.4 percent shooting, and they are shooting 45.2 percent from beyond the three-point line. They have too many scoring threats for St Louis to slow them down.

The Badgers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against Atlantic 10 opponents. The talent gap between these conference will show in this matchup today. The Billikens are 9-29 ATS in road games after two consecutive non-conference games. St Louis has a history of playing a soft non-conference schedule, but they received a difficult draw in the opening round of this Cancun Challenge.

3* Oddsmakers Error on LA Lakers +

The wrong team is favored in this game, and the Lakers should have no problem covering the spread against the Wizards tonight. Defensively Washington has been horrible this year. They are allowing opponents to score 101.8 points per game on their home court. The Wizards are getting crushed on the boards, pulling in just 49 per game while their opponents average 56 rebounds per game.

The Lakers defense is a lot better than it gets credit for. They have faced a tough schedule, where their opponents are averaging 102 points per game. The defense has held those opponents slightly under that average. Offensively Los Angeles is having no problem getting points on the board. They are scoring 99.6 points per game, and against Washington's soft defense they should easily exceed that number today.

This matchup falls into a system to play on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Lakers when they are coming off two or more consecutive home wins in the first half of the season. This system has a 48-20 (71%) ATS record over the last five seasons. The Lakers should win this game, but we will take the points since they are on the road.

3* No Doubt Rout on Monmouth +

The Penn State Nittany Lions have played five games this season, and they are already overrated this season. They have played a weak schedule to open the season, and suffered a 10 point loss to Bucknell in their second game. They have never been more than a three point favorite, so it is surprising to see them listed as a double-digit favorite in this game against Monmouth today.

The Monmouth Hawks are scoring 70.2 points per game. They should have no problem exceeding that number against a Penn State defense that is allowing 72.4 points per game. The Nittany Lions have one win that was by a large enough margin to cover today's spread over Longwood. They shot 57.1% from the field in that game, and that is a feat they will not be able to repeat today.

The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. Penn State is 1-4 ATS in their last five games when coming off a performance in which they scored 90 points or more. You should play on road underdogs of 10 or more points like Monmouth in the first 10 games of the season, after scoring 60 points or less in their last game when they have two starters returning from last year. This system is 74-40 ATS over the last five seasons.

3* Bailout Blowout on New Orleans Pelicans +

The Pelicans have played extremely well this season, so it is a bit surprising to see them getting double-digit points against the Spurs in this game. New Orleans averages 101.3 points per game this year. They have been very efficient, committing just 13 turnovers per game, and averaging 10 steals. They have held opponents to 98.8 points per game.

The Pelicans are the more rested team, and that gives them a big advantage over the aging Spurs. San Antonio is playing their fourth game in the last six days. New Orleans played their last game on Friday, which was their third consecutive win. They had all weekend to rest and prepare for the Spurs.

This matchup falls into a system to play against home favorites of 10 points or more like San Antonio when they are coming off three or more consecutive wins. This system is 127-76 (62%) against the spread over the last five seasons. There is too much upside on the Pelicans in this game, and the double-digit line makes them a very strong value play.

5* Vegas Insider on Memphis Grizzlies +

After a slow start this season the Grizzlies have really turned things on recently. They have won three of their last four games coming into today's matchup with Houston. They have an extra day of rest over the Rockets, and that gives them a big advantage in this game. Defensively, Houston has struggled on the road this year, allowing 113.8 points per game.

The Memphis defense has been tough, allowing just 96.3 points per game against opponents whose offensive average is over 100 points per game. The Grizzlies should also dominate the turnover margin in this game. They have just 14 turnovers per game compared to 18 from the Rockets. With the better defense, and more efficient offense I think the Grizzlies take this game at home.

The Houston Rockets are 3-13 ATS over the last three seasons when playing in a road game against a division opponents. They face a Memphis team that is 27-13 ATS after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers. In head-to-head matchups between these teams, the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Rockets are 0-5 the last five games played in Memphis and 3-7 in the last 10 meetings overall.

3* No Doubt Rout on Syracuse -

Syracuse is the better team, and they should dominate the Golden Gophers in this Maui Invitational opening round showdown. The Orange are 4-0 coming into this game, and they have dominated opponents by an average of almost 16 points per game. The Syracuse defense has proved difficult to score on. The Orange have allowed opponents an average of just 58.5 points per game.

Minnesota's shooting percentage drops dramatically when they are playing away from home. The Gophers average just 37.3% from the field, and 28% from beyond the three point line. Even their free throw shooting takes a hit, making just 60.7% of their attempts. Syracuse is averaging 12 steals per game, and they should force a lot of turnovers from Minnesota today.

This matchup falls into a system to play on neutral court favorites like Syracuse when they are coming off two straight games committing 11 or less turnovers, and facing an opponent that just had eight or less turnovers in their previous game. This system is 80-41 (66%) against the spread. I think Minnesota will have a lot of problems bringing the ball down court against a top tier team like Syracuse.

3* Main Event on Utah Jazz +

The Utah Jazz are getting way too many points against an Oklahoma City team who has struggled defensively this season. The Thunder are allowing 101.1 points per game, and they face a Jazz team that is playing much better than the oddsmakers have anticipated right now. Utah has covered the spread in five of their last six games.

The Utah Jazz are 15-5 ATS after having lost six of their last seven games straight up. They are also 18-8 ATS when playing eight or more games in a 14 day span. The last two head-to-head games between these teams have been decided by an average of just 6.5 points. I think Utah is certainly talented enough to keep this game within single digits against the Thunder.

This matchup falls into a system to play on road underdogs of 10 or more points when they have a losing record on the season and are coming off a road loss by 10 or more points. The system has a 99-57 (64%) ATS record. It is a great way to identify teams that the oddsmakers undervalue based on a poor straight up record.

3* No Doubt Rout on Maryland -

Don't let the Terrapins 2-2 record fool you, this is a team that is every it as good as last year's team that finished with a 25-13 overall record. Maryland has played a touch schedule this year, opening the season against a ranked UConn team, a game they lost by a single point. They also played a very close game against an underrated Oregon State team.

The Terrapins are led in scoring by Jake Layman. He is averaging 15.8 points per game, and has been a dangerous shooting from beyond the three point line. They also have a big scoring threat in Dez Wells. Through the first four games of the season Wells has show 95% from the free throw line, pulled in 4.8 rebounds per game, is second in the team in assists and is scoring 12.3 points per game. Maryland simple has too much talent for Northern Iowa to compete.

UNI is 3-11 in their last 14 games when coming off a performance in which they had five or less offensive rebounds. They face a Maryland team that is 15-5 ATS after three straight games outrebounding opponents by six or more boards per game. The Panthers should once again get dominated on the boards today, and Maryland wins this game in a blowout.

3* Bailout Blowout on Pacific -

The better team in this game is clearly the Pacific Tigers. They are averaging 76.7 points per game, and their defense has held opponents to a mere 65.5 points per game when playing at home. The strength of the team is definitely the defense. Their opponents have averaged 75.8 points per game, so the Tigers are allowing a full 10 points less than their opponents typical scoring average.

Fresno State has been a mediocre scoring team, and a horrible team defensively. The Bulldogs are allowing 86 points per game on the road this year, and with the exception of their game against Pittsburgh, the schedule has been extremely soft. Pacific is a perfect 2-0 at home, and 3-0 overall this season. They have yet to lose a game against the spread, and that won't change today.

Pacific plays well against decent opponents. They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning straight-up record. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. When the Tigers are coming off a win and playing at home they have a 14-3 ATS record. Last year the Tigers had an 8-3 record against common opponents, and with the team shooting over 42% from beyond the three point line, they should win this game in a blowout.

4* Vegas Insider on Denver Nuggets -

The Denver Nuggets are a very good team offensively this year, and they should be able to score at-will against Dallas. The Nuggets are scoring 104.3 points per game at home, and they are shooting an impressive 41.1% from beyond the three point line. They are a great rebounding team pulling in 57 boards per game overall, while the Mavericks have averaged just 48 total rebounds per game.

Defensively Dallas is a mess. They are allowing 104.8 points per game on the road, which is right in line with their overall points against average of 104.2 per game. They are getting out rebounded, and have had a lot of turnover problems when playing on the road. The Nuggets on the other hand have been the model of efficiency at home, with just 13 turnovers and posting a 4-2 record.

When the oddsmakers are expecting a shootout, the Nuggets have fared well against the spread. They are 20-9 ATS when the total is 210 points or more over the last two seasons. The Nuggets are also a team that steps up their level of play against other good teams. They are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against a team winning 60% or more of their games. Denver has dominated against Western Conference opponents posting a 4-1 ATS record in their last five games,.

3* No Doubt Rout on Sacramento Kings +

While the Clippers have a winning record at 8-5 on the season, they have not been the dominating team many expected. Their defense has been flat out horrible, which will make it hard to cover a double-digit line like this one against Sacramento. Los Angeles is allowing 108.7 points per game at home this season.

Sacramento is one of the few teams in the league that seems to be playing better offensively on the road than they do at home. They average 97 points per game, which is a respectable number given the talented defenses they have faced throughout the first 11 games of the season. The Kings are a very efficient offense, averaging just 12 turnovers per game. The Clippers live and die by their ability to force turnovers, and they won't have that luxury in this game.

The Clippers have a tendency to quickly get too much respect from the oddsmakers, especially when playing a losing team. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a losing straight-up record. The Kings on the other hand are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine road games. They are also 5-1-1 in their last seven road games against a team with a winning record at home. There is a lot of value on Sacramento on a double-digit line today.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Toronto Raptors -

The Wizards defense has been horrible this year. They are allowing 102.9 points per game, and opponents have shot 47.3% from the field against them. Even with a bad defense the Wizards could still win games, but the offense is not scoring enough to cover their poor defensive play. Washington is scoring 98.3 points per game on the road, and they will struggle to match that number against this tough Raptors defense.

Toronto is scoring 98.6 points per game this year, but they should exceed that number today. They have several favorable matchup advantages over the Wizards, and should score at-will against Washington's horrible defense. Toronto has held opponents to 97.2 points per game, allowing slightly less than their opponents offensive scoring average. The Wizards on the other hand are scoring less than their opponents have allowed on average (100.2 scored to 101.3 surrendered), and the defense is giving up more points than those opponents typically score (102.9 points allowed to 101 points scored).

This matchup falls into a system to play on a team like Toronto when they have covered the spread in four of their last six games and they are winning 40% to 49% of their games straight up, and playing against a bad team that is winning between 25-40% of their games. This system is 68-34 ATS over the last five seasons. Lay the points with the home team because Toronto should dominate this game.

3* Main Event on Northern Iowa -

This is a neutral court game, and one that Northern Iowa should have no problem winning. Don't let their 1-2 record fool you, this Panthers team is very talented. Their two losses have been on the road, and much closer than the final score indicates. The Panthers are a good rebounding team, and they are very dangerous from beyond the three point line. The defense is solid, allowing just 67.7 points per game.

Loyola-Marymount has played a very soft schedule this year. Their 4-0 record is very misleading. They have two games decided by three points or less, showing their struggles against teams that are not very good. Their biggest problem has been a defense that is allowing 79 points per game. they are having trouble adjusting to the new foul rules, averaging 26 personal fouls per game when playing away from home.

Loyola-Marymount is 16-30 ATS in road games when coming off a home win. They are also 64-92 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record. The Panthers on the other hand have posted a 43-26 ATS record when playing against a team winning 80% or more of their games. UNI should have no problem picking up a big win in this game against a Loyola-Marymount team that has been horrible defensively this year.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Denver Nuggets +

The Chicago Bulls will be without Jimmy Butler in this game. Butler is a defensive star, and his absence on the court gives Denver a very strong matchup advantage. The fact that Derrick Rose is posting career lows this season will become even more obvious with Butler gone. He is averaging just 15 points per game, shooting 34.4 percent from the field. Rose is coming off a 12 point performance against the Bobcats, and the Bulls are really struggling to keep there current win streak alive.

The Denver Nuggets have a great opportunity to snap Chicago's win steak today. The Nuggets score a lot of points, especially when playing at home. I don't think Chicago can keep pace with Denver, and since Butler is gone the Bulls won't be slowing the Nuggets down. Denver averages 105.8 points per game at home this season.

The Nuggets always step of their level of play at home when facing a good team. They are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams that are outscoring their opponents by three or more points per game. Denver also owns a 17-6 ATS record in their last 23 games against Central division opponents.

3* No Doubt Rout on UMass -

Nebraska is in for a long day today when they travel to the east coast to take on the Massachusetts Minutemen. This is a neutral court game being played in Charleston South Carolina, so the Cornhuskers will not have the benefit of home court advantage like they did in their first three games of the season. The Huskers have played an extremely soft schedule to open the season, and that will have them unprepared for a UMass team that is scoring 97.7 points per game this season.

The Minutemen have played three very good teams. They beat Boston College in a neutral court game to open the season, and they also picked up wins against LSU and Youngstown State. Their offense has been hard to stop, shooting 50.5% from the field this year, and a very impressive 42.1% from beyond the three point line. The Cornhuskers have yet to play a game on the road this year, and that is another factor that will favor UMass today. I expect a sloppy and turnover prone game from the Cornhuskers.

Nebraska is 3-13 ATS against teams shooting over 45% from the field, with a defense that is allowing less than 42% shooting. This matchup also falls into a system to play on a neutral court team like UMass when they are scoring over 76 points per game on the season, and coming off two straight performances of 80 points or more when they are playing a team scoring between 74 to 76 points. This system is 29-5 against the spread.

3* Total Dominator on Grizzlies/Warriors OVER

The Grizzlies have looked soft on defense this season, and that could be big trouble tonight when they are on the road against Golden State. The Warriors are averaging 110.8 points per game at home this season. They are beating their opponents defensive average for points allowed by a double-digit margin. The Grizzlies have allowed 97.2 points per game this year.

Memphis may not be playing great defense, but the offense is performing well. The Grizzlies average 46.8% shooting from the field this season, and should have no problem putting points on the board against a Golden State defense that is surrendering 96.3 points per game. The over is 5-2 in the Grizzlies last seven games against teams from the Pacific division.

In head-to-head meetings between these teams the over is 5-2 in the last seven. Memphis has gone over the total in four of their last five road games against teams winning 60% or more of their games at home. The over is also 9-4 in the Grizzlies last 13 games when coming off a performance in which they allowed 100 points or more.

3* No Doubt Rout on Cal Poly +

The Cal Poly Mustangs have a great opportunity to pick up their first win of the season tonight. Fresno State may have a 2-1 record, but they have yet to beat a quality team. Cal Poly played a close game on the road against Arizona, and lost by just two points to Nevada. They have quickly become an underrated team that is more than capable of beating the Bulldogs.

Fresno State is allowing an average of 78.7 points per game this season. Their offense is only scoring 77.3 points per game, which is a sign that Fresno State is not as good as their 2-1 record to start the season. Cal Poly is a solid team defensively. They have held opponents to just 66.5 points per game. I expect to see the Mustangs dominate the boards in this matchup since Fresno State has been out-rebound by eight boards per game.

The Mustangs are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record, and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss. The face a Bulldogs team that is 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games against a team with a losing record on the road. In head-to-head matchups between these teams the underdog has a 4-0 ATS record and the road team has a 4-0 ATS record in the last four meetings. Take the points since Cal Poly is on the road, but I expect the Mustangs to win this game in a close one.

4* Vegas Insider on Cleveland Cavaliers -

The Washington Wizards are a bad team. They have lost five of their six games played on the road. The Wizards defense is allowing 104.1 points per game this season, which will be a welcome sign for this Cavaliers team that has averaged 99.5 points per game when playing at home.

Cleveland has had three days of rest prior to tonight's game against the Wizards. That should have them well prepared to take on the Wizards. Washington played last night at home against Minnesota and has to travel to Cleveland for tonight's game. I expect the wear and tear of playing in a back-t0-back situation to have the Wizards look a little flat footed tonight.

The Washington Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five games when playing without a day of rest between games. They are also 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team winning 60% or more of their home games. The Cavaliers on the other hand are 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing with three or more days of rest, and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team winning 40% or less of their road games.

3* No Doubt Rout on DePaul -

The DePaul Blue Demons are 201 this season. Their only loss was a very respectable one, coming by just seven points against Southern Miss. The Blue Demons offense has been on fire, shooting 47.9% from the field and averaging 81.7 points per game. They are a very experienced team with four of their five starters returning from last season.

Wisconsin-Milwaukee has played a soft schedule this year. They have just two starters returning and figure to be outmatched in several key categories of this game. The Blue Demons are the better shooting team, and are also a much better rebounding team, and they have forced more steals than the Panthers. The Panthers have struggled against Big East opponents, posting a 2-6 ATS record in their last eight games.

The Blue Demons are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 non-conference games. Against good rebounding teams like DePaul, Wisconsin Milwaukee has a 2-10 ATS record. The Blue Demons average over four rebounds per game more than their opponent. The Panthers are also 13-26 ATS in their last 39 home games against non-conference opponents. DePaul should dominate the boards and win big today.

3* Total Dominator on Heat/Hawks UNDER

The Miami Heat are playing good defense right now. They have held opponents to 98.6 points per game, and they should be able to improve on that number today against an Atlanta team that is very overrated. The Hawks have played a lot of teams that don't bother trying on the defensive end of the court, which has inflated their offensive numbers. The Miami Hear are not one of those teams.

Both teams are playing on two days of rest, so they should come out looking sharp on the defensive end of the court. Tired teams usually give up on defense first, so the fact that both teams are well rested puts a lot of value on the under. The Heat are have gone under 22 of their last 31 games against division opponents.

This matchup falls into a system to play the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 points, and their is a good team like Atlanta winning 60% to 75% of their games, playing another team with a winning record in the first half of the season. The under has a 48-21 record in this situation. There is also another system to play the under when one of those teams is off a road win against a division opponent, like Miami is, when they are facing another division rival. The under has a 62-28 record over the last five seasons in this situation.

3* No Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz +

The Golden State Warriors have struggled on the road this season. They have a 2-3 record in their five road games, and they scoring average drops by almost five points per game. The defense also performs much worse when on the road allowing 98.6 points per game.

The Jazz may not have a great record straight up, but they should have no problem keeping this game close against the Warriors. Utah averages 93 points per game at home. They are a solid rebounding team, and do a decent job forcing turnovers. The Jazz are the more motivated team in this game. This is a home-and-home situation for these teams, and they will be seeking revenge after getting beat by Golden State on the road Saturday night.

The Golden State Warriors play so well at home that often times the oddsmakers will overvalue them when they are on the road. They are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games when coming off two or more consecutive home wins. The Jazz are player better recently, and I look for them to put on a very strong performance tonight. They are 9-1 ATS in home games after having lost three of their last four games.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Southern Methodist +

The wrong team appears to be favored in this matchup between SMU and Arkansas. The Mustangs are scoring 79 points per game this season, and their outstanding defense has held opponents to just 59.5 points per game. They have big wins over both TCU and Rhode Island this season.

Arkansas has played a very soft schedule through the first two games of the season, and I think that prevents them from being prepared to face SMU in this matchup. The Razorbacks statistics are a bit misleading because of the huge gap in talent between these teams opponents. Defensively the Mustangs have a big edge, and I think they hold Arkansas well below their 51.3% shooting rate from the field.

Arkansas is a team that has been known for quickly getting too much respect from the oddsmakers. They are 16-35 ATS when coming off two straight wins by 10 points or more. They are also 6-16 ATS over the last three seasons when coming off a game they covered the spread. The Mustangs have a 26-12 ATS record in road games when coming off a performance in which they scored 80 points or more, and I expect that trend to continue in this matchup.

3* Total Dominator on Oakland/Gonzaga UNDER

The total on this game is set far too high considering how poorly Oakland has played on offense this season. They average a mere 60.3 points per game, and against a top tier team like Gonzaga I expect them to struggle to meet that average. The Golden Grizzlies have shot just 35.6% from the field this season.

Gonzaga may end up scoring a lot of points in this game just as they have in the past two games, but the Golden Grizzlies will easily be the toughest competition they have faced this season. The Bulldogs soft schedule has allowed them to shoot an an unsustainable level, and I don't think they will continue to average 55.6% in this game. Oakland was on the road against Cal in their last game, and they held the Golden Bears to 38.8% from the field.

The under is 6-1 in Gonzaga's last seven games following a win of more than 20 points. It is also 10-1 in their last 11 games against a team winning less than 40% of their games on the season. In the Bulldogs last 59 home games the under has a 43-16 record. This total is simply counting on Gonzaga to score more points than they are capable of.

3* Main Event on Sacramento Kings +

The Kings should not be underdogs on their home court against Memphis. The Grizzlies are scoring a mere 90.2 points per game on the road, and have a 1-3 record in those four games. Memphis has also posted a 0-3-1 ATS record in those games. They face a Kings team that has earned both of their wins playing on their home court.

Sacramento is averaging 95.5 points per game at home this year. They should have no problem exceeding that number against the Grizzlies today since Memphis is allowing 98.2 points per game when playing on the road. Defensively Sacramento is a fairly even matchup with Memphis, and with home court advantage they should be win this game in a close one.

The Memphis Grizzlies are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing one one day of rest. They are also 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games against Western Conference opponents. In head-to-head matchups between these teams, the home team has a 5-2 ATS record.

3* No Doubt Rout on Golden State Warriors -

The Jazz make a strong argument for worst team in the NBA this season. The defense has given up over 100 points per game, while the offense averages a mere 88.8 points per game. It has been especially bad on the road where they are 0-5 straight up and 0-4-1 against the spread. In those road games Utah is scoring a mere 84.6 points per game.

The Golden State Warriors have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA. They are scoring 113 points per game at home and have a 4-0 record this season. They have held opponents to 97.7 points per game, but should improve on that number tonight against a Jazz team that is playing on back-to-back nights. Golden State is playing with a day of rest and with home court advantage over Utah this game should be a blowout.

Utah is 6-16 ATS in road games in the first part of the season dating back the last two seasons. They are also 29-49 ATS against excellent shooting teams that make over 46% of their attempts and allow less than 43% shooting defensively. All signs point to Golden State dominating this game from start to finish so lay the points with the home team.

3* Oddsmakers Error on CS-Northridge +

Fresno State is a bad team, and the oddsmakers are giving them too much credit considering they have yet to pick up a quality win this season. It took overtime for the Bulldogs to squeak by UC-Irvine, and they were absolutely crushed by Pittsburgh in their last game. Today they face a Cal State Northridge team that has a 12 point season opening win under their belts, and a respectable loss to the USC Trojans.

Stephen Maxwell has been the scoring leader for the Matadors through the first two games of the season. He is averaging 20 points per game, 12 rebounds and is shooting 44% from the field. Cal State has four players averaging double-digit scoring. Their top three scorers from last season are all back which makes them a veteran team with a lot of talent.

Fresno State is 7-19 ATS at home when coming off a performance with five or less offensive rebounds. The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games against a team with a losing record on the road. Cal State has more talent, more experience, and they are the all-around better team. Take the points, but don

4* Vegas Insider on Houston Rockets -

The Denver Nuggets have struggled on the road. They are 1-2 straight up, but have averaged just 97 points per game. That may not seem all that bad until you consider the fact that the Nuggets have allowed opponents to score 102.4 points per game this season. Denver is giving up a lot of rebounds, a lot of points and they are not forcing many turnovers.

Houston has had no problem scoring points this year. They average 107.5 points per game, shooting 46.5% from the field. They have held opponents to 99.6 points per game at home this season. The Rockets can afford to give up more points than Denver has because their offense has the capability to score quickly and easily. With the Nuggets playing last night against Minnesota I expect their defense to look even worse than normal today.

This matchup falls into a system to play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Denver when they are a poor defensive team that is allowing over 99 points per game against an opponent after allowing 100 points or more in four straight games. This system is 60-29 against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Total No Brainer on Pacers/Bulls UNDER

With or without Derrick Rose, this total is set far too high. The Indiana Pacers have a great defense. They have held opponents to just 83.7 points per game this season. They are allowing 38.6% from the field, and have played just as good on the road as they do at home. Indiana has gone under the total in eight of their nine games this season.

The Chicago Bulls are also solid defensively. They have allowed 78.3 points per game at home, and 89.4 points per game overall this season. The Bulls have given up a 35.4% shooting percentage from the field. What makes this under even more likely is the fact that neither of these teams has been great offensively. The Pacers score 95.9 points per game this season, while the Bulls average 91.7 points per game at home.

This matchup falls into a system to play on the under when a team like Indiana is off a home blowout win by 20 points or more and playing an opponent off a road win by 10 points or more. This system is 96-48 in favor of the under. The Bulls have also gone under the total in five of their last six games.

3* No Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -

The New York Knicks have a great chance to pick up their second home win of the season in blowout fashion tonight. They face an Atlanta Hawks team that has given up 105.2 points per game on the road. Atlanta has allowed its opponents to shoot 46.5% from the field this season.

The Knicks are coming off a day of rest, while the Hawks played last night against Philadelphia. Many times it is hard for teams to string together two solid performances when they are playing on back-to-back nights and have to teal with traveling to a new venue. That bodes well for the Knicks, and I expect them to put up a big number against an Atlanta team that should look even worse than normal defensively.

The New York Knicks re 12-2 ATS in home games when playing their third game in four days. Atlanta is 14-25 ATS against good free throw shooting teams that are making over 76% of their attempts. The Knicks are shooting 80.7% from the free throw line in home games. Lay the points on New York because this game should be a blowout.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Washington Wizards -

Washington should have no problem putting up a big offensive number against the Cavaliers. Cleveland is allowing 100.3 points per game on the road, while their offense has put up a mere 86.2 points in those games. The Cavaliers have six of their seven losses on the road, and they have covered the spread just twice.

Washington is averaging 107 points per game at home. They have shot well from the three point line this year, hitting a 40.9% clip. The Wizards will also benefit from a couple of nights rest, while the Cavaliers have to overcome playing in a back-to-back situation after getting beat by Charlotte last night.

Cleveland is 5-18 ATS when playing eight or more games in the last 14 days. They are also 0-8 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Washington on the other hand is 13-2 ATS in home games after having lost four of their last six games.

3* Total Dominator on Idaho St/Arizona St UNDER

This total is set far too high considering the way these teams match up. Idaho State may have scored 99-points in their first game of the season, but they surely will not repeat that feat against Arizona State. The Sun Devils have allowed just 57.5 points from their opponents in the first two games of the season.

I don't think either of these teams can continue to shoot as well as they have. Both teams are averaging over 50% from the field, and bother are over 45% from beyond the three point line. Defensively Idaho State has allowed a 37% shooting percentage from the field and 29.5% on three point attempts. The Sun Devils defense has been even better allowing 34.5% from the field and 23.3% from beyond the three point line.

The under is 7-1 in Idaho State's last eight games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. The under us also 7-2 in Arizona State's last nine games following a straight up win of more than 20 points, and 10-3 in their last 13 games following any straight up win. They are also 26-10-1 to the under in their last 37 games overall.