4* Heavy Hitter on Chicago Bulls -

The Bulls have a lot to play for tonight so I expect to see them put on a very strong showing. Chicago can clinch a playoff berth with a win over the Trail Blazers, and you have to like their chances to do so considering the situation Portland is playing in. The Trail Blazers will play their fifth consecutive road game, and it also happens to be the second half of a back-to-back after playing on the road against Atlanta yesterday.

The Bulls and Pacers can both make strong arguments for the best defense in the NBA. I would lean towards Chicago taking that crown when they have the luxury of playing on their home court. The Bulls have surrendered a mere 89.4 points per game at home this season while Portland comes into this matchup allowing 104.9 points per game on the road. Chicago's defense has been incredibly solid recently, allowing just 88 points per game over their last five games. They get to face a Trail Blazers team whose scoring average has dipped from 106.8 points per game down to a mere 97.2 points per game over their last five games.

You should play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Chicago when they are playing only their second game in the last five days and are up against an opponent playing their fourth game in the last five days. This system has an 82-42 (66%) record against the spread. When that team is a home favorite the system tightens up to 30-11 (73%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Midwest Heavy Hitter Play of the Day on Tennessee +

The Volunteers are the most underrated team in the remaining NCAA Tournament field. Tennessee may come into this game with 12 losses on the season, but only one of those 12 losses came by a double-digit margin and it was on the road against now No. 1 in the country Florida. Tennessee has won eight of its last nine games, with the only loss during that stretch also coming against Florida on a neutral court in the SEC Tournament. Tennessee has faced an incredibly difficult schedule this season and that will have them well prepared for the Wolverines.

Michigan is a team that has exceeded its talent level all year. Nine of the Wolverine's wins have come by five points or less. I expect them to struggle against Tennessee's underrated defense. The Volunteers have held opponents to a mere 61.4 points per game this season. When playing on the road that number barely increases, allowing just 63.2 points per game away from home. Meanwhile, the Wolverines have surrendered over 67 points per game against opponents with a scoring average that is much lower than Tennessee's.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Volunteers. You should play on teams like Tennessee when the line is three points or less and they are an excellent ball handling team that is committing less than 12 turnovers per game, after five consecutive games forcing opponents to commit 14 turnovers or less. This system identifies teams with great ball control and excellent defensive skills that the oddsmakers are undervaluing. It has resulted in a 235-181 (57%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider of the Week on Portland Trail Blazers -

The Atlanta Hawks are playing in a very tough spot today. They have lost four consecutive games, and now the Hawks are tasked with facing a hungry Portland team in the second half of a back-to-back. Meanwhile, Portland is coming into this matchup with a day of rest. The Trailblazers have played in some close games recently and have caught a few bad breaks. I think they will be the hungry team in this matchup and easily pick up a big win over Atlanta.

The Trail Blazers explosive offense gives them a big advantage over Atlanta. When playing on the road Portland averages an impressive 105.8 points per game. They are facing an Atlanta team whose offense is really struggling right now. The Hawks are 1-4 over their last five games and have scored just 97.4 points per game during that stretch.

This matchup fits into a system to play against teams like Atlanta when the line is three points or less and they are revenging a loss against their opponent and are coming off a road loss. This system is 236-144 (62%) ATS over the last five seasons. You should also play on road teams like Portland that average 102 points per game or more against a team allowing over 102 points per game after 42 or more games in the season. This system is 194-126 (61%) against the spread.

5* Sweet 16 Game of the Year on Stanford -

Dayton's Cinderella dream has run its course, and the Flyers are about to run into a nightmare when they face the Stanford Cardinal. The Flyers played an incredibly soft schedule to earn their way into the NCAA Tournament, and they were lucky enough to draw two of the most overrated teams in the tournament in the first two rounds.

Of the 10 games Dayton played against NCAA Tournament teams this season, only one of those teams remains in the tournament today. Meanwhile, Stanford played 16 games against NCAA Tournament teams, and seven of those games came against teams that are still alive in the Sweet 16. The Cardinal may look similar on the stat sheet to Dayton, but after adjusting for strength of schedule it becomes obvious there is a great disparity in talent between these two.

This matchup fits into a system that has a long history of success against the spread. You should play on teams like Stanford when the line is three points or less and they are averaging 12 or less turnovers per game, and are coming off five straight games forcing opponents to commit 14 or less turnovers. This system has a 235-181 (57%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. It is also worth noting that Stanford is 11-3 ATS versus teams averaging six or less steals per game after 15 or more games this season.

5* Vegas Insider on San Diego +

These teams split there games during the regular season, but the last matchup was won by San Diego in a game that was played at Pacific. I don't think there is any reason to expect a different outcome today. The Toreros have one of the best defenses in the West Coast Conference, holding opponents to a mere 64.9 points per game.

Pacific did not fare well against conference opponents this season. They posted a mere 6-13 record. The Tigers averaged a mediocre 70.6 points in those games, but on the defensive end of the court they surrendered an average of 75.8 points per game against the conference. These teams were also headed in opposite directions down the stretch. San Diego has won five of its last seven games while Pacific has lost five of its last eight games.

San Diego is 30-11 ATS in road games when playing a team that has won just 51 to 60 percent of its games on the season. After 15 or more games in the season that system tightens up to a 20-5 ATS record. The Toreros are the better team, and regardless of venue they should be able to pick up a win. We will take the points, but expect to see San Diego come out on top tonight.

3* Total Annihilator on Nuggets/Spurs UNDER -

The value in this matchup is clearly on the under. Over their last five games the Supers have been playing incredibly well on defense. They are holding opponents to just 94.6 points per game during that stretch. The team is already solid defensively when playing at home, allowing just 97.5 points per game on the season.

When the Spurs are covering spreads it is generally because they are playing well on defense. The under is 31-13 in home games when San Antonio has covered the spread in eight or more of their last 10 games. The under is 62-34 in Denver's road games when facing an opponent from the Southwest division.

This matchup also fits into a very profitable system to play the under. You should take the under when the total is 210 points or more, and one of the teams (Denver) is revenging a loss where their opponent scored 100 points or more, and they are off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more. This system has a 71-38 (65%) record in favor of the under.

4* No Brainer on Detroit Pistons -

The Cavaliers are still without Kyrie Irving and I think it will catch up with them tonight. Cleveland picked up a win at home last night over Toronto, but now the Cavaliers are forced to play in a back-to-back situation with this second half game coming on the road against Detroit. It is also Cleveland's fourth game in the last five days.

The Cavaliers have not fared well on the road this season. They are losing two games for every one road win. Detroit comes into this matchup having won two of its last three home games, and they are playing some pretty solid basketball against division opponents. Detroit is surrendering just 97 points per game against the division, a number that is will below their overall defensive scoring average on the season.

You should play on a team like Detroit when they are scoring 98 to 102 points per game and are facing a defense allowing that same number after 42 or more games, and when coming off a combined score of 205 points or more in two straight games. This system identifies teams who have a hot offense right now. It has led to a 60-32 (65%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

3* Total Dominator on Raptors/Cavs UNDER -

Both of these teams are playing with a day of rest so this matchup should play out to be a defensive battle. The Raptors have surrendered an average of just 97.4 points per game on the road this season. They are facing a Cavaliers team that is not known for scoring a lot of points. Cleveland comes into this matchup averaging 97.3 points per game, and against a tough defense like Toronto's I think that number will be even lower today.

While Cleveland may not score a lot of points, the Cavaliers are a much better team defensively than they get credit for. Cleveland has held opponents to 99.3 points per game when playing at home. That bodes well for the under since Toronto's offensive production takes a big hit in road games. Both teams are playing with key injuries, and I think that will also have a big impact on the total score.

You should play the under when the total is 190 to 199.5 points and one of the teams (Toronto) is off a home win by 10 points or more, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off an upset win as a road underdog. This system has a 142-93 (60%) record in favor of the under. It is also worth noting that the under is 10-1 when Cleveland is coming off a road win, and it is 16-4 when Toronto is playing a team winning 25 to 40 percent of its games in the the second half of the season.

4* Heavy Hitter on Orlando Magic +

This line screams trap game for Portland backers. The Magic are coming into this matchup with a day of rest, and they face a Trail Blazers team that is playing in a very tough back-to-back spot after losing on the road against Miami last night. After suffering a heartbreaking two-point loss like that I don't think Portland will be coming into this game with the mentality it takes to cover a six-point spread.

The Magic are not a great team, I don't think anybody would argue that, but they are pretty solid at home. It is worth noting that 15 of their 19 wins this season have come on their home court. Orlando's record at home is just a few games back from Portland's record on the road. The Magic should also score at will in this game against a soft Trail Blazers defense. Portland has surrendered 105.7 points per game on the road and 109.6 points per game over their last five games.

Portland is 13-25 ATS after two or more consecutive losses, and they are 10-22 ATS after playing two or more consecutive games as an underdog. This is a mentally weak team. The Trail Blazers have now lost seven of their last 10 games. We will take the points with Orlando, but it would not be surprising to see Portland drop its third consecutive game tonight.

5* NIT Game of the Year on Clemson -

The Clemson Tigers have flown under the radar for most of the season. It may come as a surprise to know that Clemson has the nation's fourth ranked scoring defense. The Tigers are the only team in the top five scoring defenses that are not still active in the NCAA Tournament. That is a good indication of just how important good defense is in the postseason. Clemson has held opponents to a mere 57.9 points per game. When playing at home that number drops to an even 54 points per game.

The Tigers have a dominant 15-3 record when protecting their home court. They will face a Belmont team that sees a drastic drop in production when playing on the road. The Bruins have surrendered an average of 75.3 points in road games. Belmont has also been a big disappointment when playing on the road or on a neutral court in tournament games. They have a 5-14 ATS record in that situation over the last three seasons.

This matchup fits into a system to play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Clemson when they are coming from a BCS conference and are playing against a team from a mid-major, and they are coming off two or more consecutive home wins. Clemson beat Georgia State and Illinois to start the NIT Tournament. This system has a 40-14 (74%) record against the spread. It is also worth noting the Tigers have won seven of their last 10 games coming into this matchup.

3* Bailout Blowout on LA Clippers -

This may seem like a lot of points, but when you look at the disparity in talent between these teams the value is clearly with the Clippers. Milwaukee has won a mere five games on the road this season. They are losing those matchups by a near double-digit margin and now have to face one of the leagues hottest teams with one of the highest scoring offenses. You also have to consider the fact that Milwaukee is coming off an embarrassing 17 point loss at Sacramento just last night.

The Clippers come into this matchup with a day of rest, and with an offense that is averaging 110.7 points per game. Defensively Los Angeles has been great when playing at home. They have held opponents to a mere 99.4 points per game this season. Milwaukee is sitting well below the Clipper's opponents scoring average of 101.1 points per game. The Bucks are averaging 95.2 points per game.

Milwaukee is 4-16 against the spread when facing a team that is outscoring its opponents by six or more points per game. They are also 10-22 ATS against teams that are making 46 percent or more of their shot attempts. The Clippers come into this matchup making over 48 percent of their attempts at home, and they will have no problem picking up a blowout win over the Bucks.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Utah Jazz +

The Jazz should have no problem picking up a win over Detroit tonight. The Pistons are riding a five game losing streak, and they are showing no signs of life. Things have not been going well for the Jazz either, but they are playing in a great spot to pick up a second consecutive win tonight. They picked up a big victory over Orlando in their last outing, and Utah has the luxury of playing the host role in this matchup.

Detroit is a bad team, but when playing on the road they somehow go from bad to worse. The Pistons have won a mere 10 road games all season. They are surrendering 105.1 points per game on the road, while the offense is barely able to keep up with opponents' defensive scoring averages at 100.6 points per game. The last time these teams met Utah picked up a dominating win over Detroit. The Pistons were the host team in that matchup, and ended up losing to the Jazz with a 89-110 final score.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Pistons. You should play against teams like Detroit when they are revenging a loss of 10 points or more, and are coming off two road covers where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers have overvalued, and it has resulted in a 63-29 (69%) record against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on SMU -

The SMU Mustangs will play host to the LSU Tigers in a second round NIT matchup. The Mustangs picked up a dominating 14-point win over UC-Irvine in the first round of play, due in large part to a defense that has been underrated for most of the season. SMU is allowing 62 points per game overall, but when playing at home that number drops all the way down to 58.6 points per game surrendered.

The Mustangs have posted an 11-2 ATS record on their home court, and a 16-1 overall record in those games. Meanwhile, the LSU Tigers have a losing record of 7-10 overall when playing on the road, and 6-9 record against the spread in those games. There is a lot of disparity in talent between these teams. SMU was able to win their last game by 14 points even though they shot just 33.9 percent from the field. The Mustangs defense is incredibly good, and they should have no problem shutting down the Tigers.

You should play on a team like SMU after going under the total by 42 points or more in their last seven games when they are playing in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences. This system is 42-18 (70%) against the spread. When they have gone under the total by 48 points or more in their last seven games the system tightens up to 34-14 (71%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Vegas Insider on Memphis Grizzlies -

Minnesota is playing in a very tough spot. The Timberwolves just lost at home against Phoenix last night, and now they have to try to avoid their third straight loss by playing on the road in the second half of a back-to-back situation where they will face the Memphis Grizzlies. Added to that is the fact that Memphis has been on fire, winning nine of its last 12 games.

The biggest problem for Minnesota this season has been its defense. Minnesota has lost three of its last five games, and four of those five games resulted in losses against the spread. During that stretch the Timberwolves have surrendered an average of 117 points per game. Meanwhile, Memphis comes into this matchup holding opponents to a mere 84.8 points per game over its last five games. These teams are headed in opposite directions down the stretch, and the Grizzlies should have no problem picking up a big win tonight.

This matchup fits into a system to play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Minnesota when they are coming off a home loss, and trying to revenge a home loss by their opponent. These teams met in Minnesota earlier this season and it was Memphis that picked up a four-point win. This system has a 119-76 (61%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

5* West Region Game of the Year Creighton -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. The Creighton Bluejays are one of the best three-point shooting teams left in the tournament. They are making 42.1 percent of their three-point attempts this season. McDermott and Co. will have the luxury of facing a Baylor defense that has been soft around the perimeter. Baylor has allowed opponents to make 39.2 percent of their attempts when playing away from home.

The Bluejays do not just have a three point shooting advantage, they also have advantages in rebounding and ball control. On the boards Creighton has allowed opponents just nine offensive rebounds per game. Without second chance shot attempts from offensive rebounds the Bears will struggle to keep pace with Creighton's high powered offensive attack. The Bluejays are also an excellent ball control team committing a mere 10 turnovers per game, so even if the Bears do decide to dial up some pressure it could likely widen Creighton's margin of victory.

Creighton is a team that gets hot and plays extremely well. The Bluejays are 13-6 against the spread when coming off a win by 10 points or more this season. The Bluejays are also 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games. The Bears do not have a player on the roster that can slow down Doug McDermott. Even if he gets double or triple teamed the Bluejays have very talented shooters around him. McDermott is coming into this game averaging 27 points, 7.1 rebounds and is shooting almost 46 percent on three point attempts.

4* Eastern Conference Game of the Week on New York Knicks -

The Knicks are one of the hottest teams in the NBA. They have won eight consecutive games and will look for a ninth straight win tonight when they host the struggling Cleveland Cavaliers. Cleveland is riding a four game losing streak, and the Cavaliers are playing in a very tough back-to-back spot after hosting Houston last night.

Over their last five games the Cavaliers have been playing right in line with their season averages in both scoring and points allowed. On the offensive side of things they have averaged 97 points per game, while defensively they have surrendered 103.2 points per game. They are 1-4 during that stretch. The Cavaliers are simply a bad team, and they will struggle to keep this game within single-digits against a red hot Knicks team that is averaging 107.8 points per game over their last five games.

This matchup fits into a system to play against the Cavaliers. You should fade teams like Cleveland when they are a road underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, and they are trying to revenging a home loss against their opponent when that loss came by 10 points or more, and they are coming into this matchup off a home loss. The last time these teams met the Knicks picked up a 107-97 win in Cleveland just a couple weeks ago, and the Cavaliers coming off a seven point loss to Houston last night. This system is 58-29 (67%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on North Carolina +

I think the oddsmakers have severely underestimated the impact Georges Niang has for Iowa State. Niang averages 16.7 points per game, 4.5 rebounds per game and 3.6 assists per game. His contributions are just as big on the defensive end of the court. While he may not receive the same kind of attention that Melvin Ejim and DeAndre Kane do, Niang's statistical contributions are just as good.

With Niang out the Tar Heels should score at will in the paint. Niang was only 6' 7" but he made his presence known down low. Now the Cyclones will have to deal with three Tar Heel forwards all listed at 6' 9" and up. Kennedy Meeks, James Michael McAdoo and Brice Johnson combined for 44 points in North Carolina's win over Providence. It would also be hard to go against a Roy Williams coached team at this point in the Tournament. North Carolina lost in the third round last season, but under Williams they have never been eliminated that early in back-to-back seasons.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing North Carolina. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have overvalued recent performances. You should play on a team like North Carolina that has failed to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games, when they are facing an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in four or more consecutive games. This system has a 139-83 (63%) record against the spread over he last five seasons.

5* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Wisconsin -

This game is being played in Milwaukee, so it is essentially a home game for the Badgers. That will be a huge advantage for them since Oregon had to travel across the country and its doubtful they will have much support from the fan base. The Ducks have to face a very smart basketball team. Wisconsin doesn't foul. Opponents who average 22 free throws per game are only getting 15 per game against them. Teams like Oregon that get to the line struggle against the Badgers as Wisconsin is 22-7 ATS against teams shooting 25 or more free throws per game in the second half of the season dating back to 1997.

Oregon shoots an impressive 38.6% from behind the arc, but Wisconsin doesn't allow teams to shoot threes. Badgers are 8th best in the nation, allowing teams that shoot 18 threes per game to only get off 14 against them. On the flip side Oregon has been good at pressuring teams, which leads to turnovers forced, but also a lot of fouls. That's bad news on both fronts as Wisconsin turns the ball over 8 times per game, they aren't going to get flustered. They also shoot 75% from the line. The Ducks give up 27 free throws per game to teams that average only 23.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Badgers. You should play on neutral court favorites like Wisconsin after two straight games committing 11 or less turnovers, when they are up against an opponent coming off a game committing eight or less turnovers. BYU has one of the worst defenses in the region, and the oddsmakers have overvalued Oregon's ball control ability coming into this matchup. Wisconsin has a tough Big Ten defense and should easily shut the Ducks down. This system has a 96-51 (65%) record against the spread.

4* No Brainer on Michigan -

Texas gets a lot of credit for being a great rebounding team, but they will be at a serious disadvantage against the Wolverines today. Michigan has held its opponents to a total of just 31 rebounds per game, allowing a mere eight of those rebounds to come on the offensive glass. Texas is used to averaging closer to double that number.

Michigan is also the better ball control team. The Wolverines average just nine turnovers per game. Texas is 2-10 ATS in road or neutral court games against teams committing 12 or less turnovers per game after 15 or more games on the season. Combine that with a near 10 percent advantage from the free throw line, as well as a shooting advantage from the field and beyond the three point line and this game quickly looks like there is serious blowout potential for Michigan.

Both teams may average close to 74 points per game, but Michigan has built up that average against teams allowing just 67 points per game while Texas has done so against teams surrendering 71 points per game. The Longhorns have been receiving too much credit from the oddsmakers down the stretch. Texas has failed to cover the spread in five of its last seven games and they are 11-24 ATS in this situation when playing on the road or a neutral court.

4* Heavy Hitter on Providence +

A strong performance in the NCAA Tournament is all about getting hot at the right time. Providence has done just that winning six of its last seven games and looking for a fourth consecutive win when they face North Carolina. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels dropped two straight to end the season getting beat by a double-digit margin against Duke and losing in the opening round of the ACC Tournament versus Pitt.

I don't think the Tar Heels are a team that is as good as their record. They have some major problems on the defensive end of the court surrendering 71.8 points per game when playing away from home. The Friars are no stranger to facing top tier competition. They faced seven ranked opponents this season. It is also worth noting that four of the Friar's 11 losses came by four points or less this season.

This matchup fits into a system to play against a neutral court favorite like North Carolina when they have failed to cover the spread in five or more consecutive games. This system is 30-11 (73%) ATS over the last five years. When that team is playing in a tournament game the system tightens up to 30-9 (77%) against the spread over the last five season.

3* Total Dominator on Bulls/Pacers UNDER -

The Chicago Bulls have played great defense all season, but it seems as though they save there best work for division opponents. Chicago has surrendered a mere 87.1 points per game against division opponents this season. If you are worried about how the defense will do on the road there is no cause for concern. First of all, its a short road trip to Indiana, but the Bulls have also held opponents to just 92.4 points per game on the road this season.

The Indiana Pacers have also played some outstanding defense. Indiana allows a mere 87.1 points per game at home this season, and they have held division opponents to a similar number at 89.7 points per game. Both of these teams are coming into this matchup with a day of rest which always seems to help on the defensive end of the court. It is also worth noting that Chicago has gone under the total in two of its last three games while Indiana has gone under in four of its last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the under. You should play the under when the total is between 180 to 189.5 points, in a game involving two good defensive teams allowing a shooting percentage of 41.5 to 43.5 percent and two good rebounding teams that are +3 to +5.5 in rebounding margin. This system has a 50-20 (71%) record in favor of the under.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Eastern Kentucky +

The Kansas Jayhawks might be the most overrated No. 2 seed in the tournament, at least without Joel Embiid in the lineup. Eastern Kentucky has an explosive offense that should have no problem competing with the Jayhawks. The Colonels come into this game averaging 78.7 points per game when playing away from home. That is two points more than the Jayhawks are scoring in road or neutral court games this season.

Kansas has been a very soft team defensively. It is surrendering 73.5 points per game on the road, and 70.5 points per game overall. That poor play has not been limited to facing Big 12 opponents. Even during the non-conference portion of play this season Kansas surrendered 83 points to Toledo and 78 points to a bad Wake Forest team.

Eastern Kentucky may be coming out of the Ohio Valley conference but they are no stranger to playing good teams. The Colonels went to overtime in a road game against VCU this season and they are riding a seven game win streak coming into this matchup. The Colonels are 39-19 ATS as an underdog of 10 points or more.

3* No Doubt Rout on Arizona -

Weber State is not worthy of their spot in the NCAA Tournament. If not for winning the Big Sky Conference Tournament the Wildcats would likely be watching the Big Dance on television this year. Arizona was the No. 1 team in the nation for seven weeks this season, and they will have no problem picking up a big win in this game.

Two of Weber State's 11 losses came by 20 points or more. They were crushed by Colorado State and UCLA. They have yet to face a team as talented as Arizona. The Arizona Wildcats have the nation's fifth ranked scoring defense allowing a mere 58.1 points per game. They have put those respectable numbers up against much stronger teams than Weber State.

Weber State is 0-8 ATS in road or neutral court games against teams that have allowed a shooting percentage of 42 percent or less. They are also 1-9 ATS in road or neutral court games when facing a team that is outscoring its opponents by an average of eight or more points per game. All signs point to a blowout win for Arizona.

3* Blowout on Duke -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. Mercer's stat sheet is very inflated thanks to a soft schedule. The Bears only faced two teams playing in the NCAA Tournament all season, both losses, and four of Mercer's eight losses came by a double-digit margin. Mercer's opponents had a defensive scoring average of 74.4 points per game, so the fact that Mercer is scoring 79.3 points per game is a bit misleading.

Duke comes into this matchup averaging 78.6 points per game. That is a lot more meaningful than Mercer's scoring average since Duke's opponents have surrendered an average of just 66.1 points per game on the season. The Blue Devils also faced 13 teams playing in the NCAA Tournament, and they played eight games against ranked opponents. Facing a team like Mercer is going to feel like playing a practice squad, especially since Duke is known for reserving its best basketball for when it counts the most.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Duke. You should play on neutral court teams as a favorite after two straight games committing 11 or less turnovers, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a game committing eight or less turnovers. Mercer may be a good ball control team when facing Atlantic Sun opponents, but that won't be the case against one of the ACC's top teams. This system has a 96-51 (65%) record against the spread.

3* Total Annihilator on Wizards/Blazers OVER -

The total for this contest has been set far too low for a game involving two explosive offenses and two teams that do not play a lot of defense. Over their last five games the Blazers have surrendered an average of 108.6 points per game. On the offensive end of the court Portland is averaging 106.4 points per game during that stretch.

With Portland playing soft defense lately the Wizards are in a great spot to put a big number up on the scoreboard. Washington averages over 100 points per game on the road, and they have done so against opponents with a defensive scoring average that is far less than the 103.2 points per game Portland has surrendered this season. The Wizards defense could also be in for a long night. Washington has surrendered 100.4 points per game this season against opponents with a scoring average of 100.3 points per game. Tonight they are up against a Blazers team averaging 108 points per game at home.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the over. You should play the over when any team (Portland) went over the total by 18 or more points in their previous game and they are facing an opponent that went over the total by 24 points or more in their previous game. Portland went over the total by 29 points in their last outing against Milwaukee, while Washington went over by 27 points in their last outing against Sacramento. This system is 383-260 (60%) in favor of the over.

5* Opening Round Game of the Year on Syracuse -

There is no denying the fact that Syracuse had a poor finish to the regular season, but they also played a very tough stretch of schedule to finish the year. This is still the same team that opened the season with a perfect 25-0 record. It is also worth noting that even though Syracuse lost five of its final seven games, four of those seven games were played on the road and three of the five losses came by four points or less.

Western Michigan posted a respectable 23-9 record this season, but coming out of the MAC that does not mean a lot. They faced one ranked team all season, then No. 24 Missouri, and the Tigers are not even playing in the NCAA Tournament this season. I think the Broncos are severely outmatched against a top tier team like the Orange, and Syracuse runs the zone defense better than any team in the country so expect a lot of turnovers and little scoring from Western Michigan.

Western Michigan relies heavily on its ability to get to the free throw line to win games. Syracuse is a perfect 8-0 ATS against teams attempting 25 or more three throws per game. The reason they have been so successful in these situations is because the Orange are a smart basketball team that avoids getting into foul trouble. Syracuse is also 8-2 ATS when playing only their second game in the last eight days this season.

4* Vegas Insider on Wisconsin -

The Badgers might be one of the most underrated teams in the tournament this season. This is a team that opened the season winning 16 consecutive games and ranked as high as No. 3 in the country. Wisconsin may have been a little over confident coming into Big 10 play, but they finished the year with a strong showing, and should make easy work of No. 15 seeded American.

I don't think playing in the Patriot league has the American Eagles prepared for a matchup against a tough Big Ten team like Wisconsin. The Eagles lost seven of their first 10 games during non-conference play this season. The Eagles could be in for a long day facing this Badger's defense. They average a mere 63.9 points per game this season, and Wisconsin has surrendered 64.5 points per game against teams with a scoring average over 71 points per game.

The Badgers have an outstanding perimeter defense. They have posted an 11-3 ATS record in road or neutral court games when facing teams that make 37 percent or more of their three point attempts. The fact that American relies so heavily on their ability to successfully shoot three pointers gives Wisconsin a huge matchup advantage. The Badgers are also 11-3 ATS against teams averaging 33 or less rebounds per game and American comes into this matchup pulling in a mere 30 rebounds per game with just six coming on the offensive glass.

3* No Doubt Rout on Ohio State -

Ohio State has the nation's 12th ranked scoring defense. The Buckeyes have surrendered a mere 59.8 points per game, and they should make easy work of the Flyers in this game. Dayton has been mediocre on offense averaging 73.4 points per game, but that has come against opponents allowing 10 points per game more than what Ohio State is surrendering this year. When you look at strength of schedule that disparity becomes even more obvious.

The Buckeyes opened the season with a perfect 15-0 record. In a conference as talented as the Big 10 it is not surprising to see some inconsistency throughout conference play. What we do know is Dayton is a six loss team in the inferior Atlantic 10 conference, and the Flyers add an additional four losses during non-conference play. Dayton suffered double-digit blowout losses against VCU, Rhode Island and Saint Joseph's this year, and Ohio State will be adding its name to that list.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Buckeyes. You should play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Ohio State when they are from a BCS conference and coming off a loss to a conference opponent and they are facing a team from a second tier conference like Dayton. This system is 61-29 (68%) against the spread. The Atlantic 10 is not as good as all the hype coming into the tournament so Ohio State should dominate this game.

4* Heavy Hitter on UTEP -

The Miners might be the most underrated team in the CBI tournament. They posted a 23-10 overall record, and half of those losses came by five points or less. UTEP managed to stick to within four points on a neutral court against then No. 2 in the country, Kansas, and I expect to see them make easy work of Fresno State today.

Fresno State is a very bad road team. They posted a 6-11 record in road games this season. A big reason for their complete lack of success away from home can be credited to a defense that surrendered 74.1 points per game. Meanwhile, the Miners come into this matchup with one of the best defenses in the tournament, holding opponents to a mere 63.4 points per game.

UTEP is 15-5 ATS against poor pressure defensive teams that are forcing 14 or less turnovers per game. They are also 24-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons. Over the last three seasons the Miners have posted a 21-10 ATS record in non-conference games. Coming out of C-USA has the Miners underrated, and they should make easy work of Fresno State in this game.

4* No Brainer on New Orleans Pelicans -

The Pelicans have been playing well recently, while Toronto seems to be headed in the opposite direction. Now New Orleans will play host to the Raptors after two days of rest while Toronto is playing in a back-to-back situation. The Raptors were on the road last night against Atlanta. Playing in a back-to-back situation is always tough, but back to back road games gives New Orleans a big advantage.

The Pelicans offense is on fire right now. Over their last five games they are averaging an impressive 107 points per game. They have the luxury of facing a Raptors squad that has struggled on the road this year averaging just 99 points per game. Toronto's defense is playing horribly right now. They have surrendered 119.5 points per game over the last two games and things will not get any easier tonight when they are playing without rest against this red hot Pelicans offense.

You should play against teams averaging 98 to 102 points per game like Toronto after a combined score of 215 points or more in two straight games and they are facing a team allowing 102 points per game or more. This system has a 77-40 (66%) record against the spread. It is also worth noting that New Orleans is 114-83 against the spread in home games when revenging a same season loss.

5* CBI Game of the Year on Princeton -

The Princeton Tigers are clearly the better team in this matchup. They finished the season riding a five game win streak, and posted a 20-8 overall record. Some might argue the Ivy league is soft, but even during non-conference play the Tigers put on a dominating 12-2 showing. They suffered a mere three point loss on the road against Butler, and held to within six points on the road against Harvard, a team now playing in the NCAA Tournament.

The Tulane Green Wave finished the regular season headed in the opposite direction. They lost three of their last four games, and cannot be excited about playing in the CBI. The Green Wave had a wealth of issues on the offensive end of the court this year. Their 63.9 points per game ranks them 317th in the country for scoring. They are also 237th in rebounds per game, 348th in assists per game and 309th in shooting percentage from the field.

The Princeton Tigers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games against conference USA opponents. They are 8-3 ATS in non-conference games. Tulane meanwhile is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games against teams winning 60 percent or more of their games. The Green Wave are severely outmatched in this game and the Tigers should have no problem picking up an easy win in their CBI opener.

**I'd play this as a 5* up to -9 and 4* up to -10.**

3* Bailout Blowout on Utah -

The difficult Pac-12 schedule played by Utah has made this matchup look a little more even than it is. The Utes have a 21-11 overall record, but they faced five ranked opponents this season. Saint Mary's on the other hand did not face a single ranked opponent all season.

The Utes are one of the country's best shooting teams. In fact, they ranked 12th in the nation in field goal percentage, making 48.9 percent of their attempts. Saint Mary's suffered bad losses to both BYU and Gonzaga, two teams that are very comparable to the Utes. I think the Gaels are severely outmatched from a talent perspective, and home court advantage will not be enough to swing the outcome of this game in their favor.

Utah is 15-5 ATS against poor pressure defenses that are forcing 14 or less turnovers per game. They are also 21-10 ATS against teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points per game after 15 or more games in the season. Saint Mary's is 2-11 ATS when playing a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season. All signs point to a Utah blowout tonight.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Green Bay -

After finishing first in the Ohio Valley East, Belmont had to believe they would be making a return to the NCAA Tournament. I think playing in the NIT has to be a bigger disappointment for Belmont than it is for Green Bay, and that could cause some motivation issues for this game. Green Bay actually posted a better record than Belmont on the year with just six losses. Four of those six losses came against teams playing in the NCAA Tournament.

Green Bay's defense gives them a huge advantage in this matchup. They are playing on their home court where they allow a mere 60.2 points per game. Meanwhile, Belmont has surrendered an average of 75.8 points per game on the road. On the offensive end of the court the Phoenix should be fine. They average 74.6 points per game, and with the defense shutting Belmont down they should easily score enough points to cover this spread.

Belmont has struggled in tournament games in recent years. In fact, the Bruins are 4-14 ATS in all tournament games over the last three seasons. Green Bay is 20-6 ATS when coming off an upset loss to a conference rival when they are playing as a home favorite. The Phoenix are the better team, and it will show on the court tonight.

4* Vegas Insider on Toronto Raptors -

The Raptors are an easy call in this matchup with Atlanta. The Hawks are playing in a tough spot today after picking up a road win over Charlotte last night. It was a defensive battle that had to take its toll on Atlanta, and now they are forced to play in the second half of a back-to-back situation against a hungry team like the Raptors.

Toronto is coming into this game with a day of rest. The Raptors have won 11 of their last 15 games, and they are playing like a team on a mission. Over their last five games they have averaged 104.2 points per game. They should have no problem scoring on an Atlanta defense that has surrendered 102.1 points per game on the season.

You should play against home dogs like Atlanta when they are trying to revenge a blowout loss of 20 points or more and their opponent is coming off an upset loss as a favorite. This system is 102-61 (63%) against the spread. You should also play against home teams when the line is three points or less and they are off a road win and trying to revenge a loss. This system has a 92-50 (65%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* No Brainer on Albany -

Albany has a huge advantage for this play-in game against Mount Saint Mary's. The Great Danes have been an outstanding team defensively, holding opponents to a mere 63.8 points per game. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers have surrendered an average of 78 points per game this season. When playing on the road Mount Saint Mary's is allowing an astonishing 81.6 points per game.

Albany will also have a big rebounding advantage in this game. The Great Danes average 35 rebounds per game, with a +3 figure in rebounding margin. The Mountaineers on the other hand are -4 in rebounding margin. It is also worth noting that Mount Saint Mary's averages just seven offensive rebounds per game when playing away from home. Without second chance shot attempts from a strong showing on the offensive glass the Mountaineers will be in serious trouble today.

Albany has been a spread covering machine against poor pressure defenses. They are 8-1 ATS against teams forcing less than 14 turnovers per game. The Great Danes are also 6-0 ATS against poor ball movement teams that average less than 12 assists per game. The Mountaineers have two players that do the majority of the team's scoring, and that makes them easy to defend.

3* No Doubt Rout on Denver Nuggets +

We will take the points, but I think Denver is the team that ends the Clippers recent win streak. Los Angeles was at home last night hosting Cleveland, and now they have to play on back-to-back nights by traveling to Denver to face the Nuggets in mile high altitude. The Nuggets have been playing well recently, winning two of their last three games all on the road. Now they get a day of rest and will be playing from the comfort of their home court.

The Clippers recent run can be credited to tough defensive play. Even good defensive teams struggle when playing in the mile high altitude of Denver, so I think the Nuggets are poised to put a big number on the scoreboard. The team averages 104.5 points per game at home this season. The Nuggets met the Clippers in early February and picked up a win on their home court. I expect another close game between the teams today, with Denver having a chance to win outright in the end.

You should play on home teams like Denver when they average 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers and they are facing an average pressure defense forcing 14.5 to 16.5 turnovers after 42 or more games on the season. This system is 119-82 (59%) against the spread over the last five seasons. You should also play on teams averaging 103 points per game or more after training in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers have undervalued and it has resulted in a 143-78 (65%) record against the spread.

4* NBA Heavy Hitter of the Week on Brooklyn Nets -

The Suns have won two straight, but they won't make it a third when they face the Brooklyn Nets tonight. Brooklyn has won seven of its last nine games and they are trying to close the gap on Washington and maintain a lead over Charlotte in the Eastern Conference standings. The Nets have a 20-11 home record to protect, and that includes a very profitable 18-13 record against the spread in those games.

The Phoenix Suns are playing in a back-to-back situation after facing Toronto on the road last night. The Suns will be playing in their third consecutive road game, and their fifth road game in their last six contests tonight. This is a brutal stretch of schedule that will catch up with the Suns against an underrated Nets team.

You should play against underdogs like Phoenix when they are revenging a home loss against their opponent, and that opponent is coming off a road loss. This system is 197-133 (60%) over the last five seasons. When that underdog is a road underdog the system tightens up to 167-108 (61%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Atlanta Hawks +

The Atlanta Hawks suffered a poor stretch of games in February and early March, but they have bounced back strong winning three consecutive games coming into this matchup. Charlotte has a 2.5 game lead on Atlanta in the Eastern Conference standings, so I like the Hawks to play with plenty of motivation tonight.

Charlotte is playing in a very tough spot. They were on the road yesterday against Milwaukee, and now the Bobcats have to play a very talented Atlanta team in the second half of a back-to-back. The Hawks have been on fire recently, averaging 103.2 points per game over their last five games. Against division opponents they are averaging 104.8 points per game. Meanwhile, the Bobcats are averaging a mere 96.7 points per game against the division while surrendering 102 points per game.

You should play against home teams like Charlotte when they are trying to revenge a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points and they are playing on back-to-back days. This system has a 101-51 (66%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. You should also play against home teams with a line of three points or less when they are off a road win and revenging a loss to their opponent. This system is 91-50 (65%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Total Annihilator on Rockets/Heat UNDER

The total for this game is set far too high. This game is being played at Miami, so I like the Heat to control the pace of this game. Miami's defense has surrendered just 98.8 points per game at home this season while their opponents have an offensive scoring average over 100 points per game.

Both of these teams are struggling on the offensive end of the court over their last five games, at least when compared to their season averages. Houston has scored 103.2 points per game over their last five games which is three points per game below their overall scoring average. They should struggle to match that number today against an underrated defense like Miami's. The Heat are also having trouble scoring points, averaging just 95.2 points per game over their last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play the under. You should take the under when the total is 200 to 209.5 points and one team (Houston) is off an upset loss as a road favorite, and they have a winning record on the season and are facing another team with a winning record. This matchup has a 104-61 (63%) record in favor of the under.

5* Eastern Conference No Doubt Rout of the Month on Bobcats -

The Bobcats are up against one of the league's worst teams tonight, and they should have no problem covering a single-digit number against them. Charlotte has won three straight coming into this matchup, and five of their last six. Meanwhile, the Bucks have lost six of their last seven games, and they are showing no signs of life as the regular season unwinds.

Not only are the Bucks on a bad losing streak, they are also playing in a very tough back-to-back situation. Milwaukee was just on the road yesterday against New York, and now they have to immediately travel home to play host to the Bobcats. Playing in a back-to-back situation is tough on any team, but I expect it to really take its toll on this Bucks team that looks like they have thrown in the towel on their season.

You should play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Milwaukee when they are playing in a double revenge situation having lost their last two games against their opponent, and they are coming into the matchup off of two or more consecutive road losses. This system identifies favorites that are being undervalued. It has resulted in a 117-67 (64%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Main Event on Virginia +

When these teams met during the regular season the Cavaliers did not play a great game and still managed to stick to within four points against the Blue Devils. Duke may have been lucky to squeak by with a win in that game on their home court, but I do not expect that to be the case today. In this matchup the Cavaliers will face Duke on a neutral court, and they are coming into this game as one of the hottest teams in college basketball.

Virginia has the nation's No. 1 ranked scoring defense. They have held opponents to a mere 55.1 points per game this season, and they showed us during the regular season that slowing the Blue Devils down will not be something they have a problem with. Virginia is going to need a strong offensive performance to win this game, and I think there is a good chance they get it. The Blue Devils have given up 68.6 points per game when playing away from home this season and if Virginia even comes close to that number they will win this game.

The Cavaliers are 9-0 against the spread when facing a team that is outscoring opponents by four or more points per game after 15 or more games on the season. They are also 8-1 against the spread when facing a team that averages less than 12 turnovers after 15 or more games. While Duke may have a storied history, the Blue Devils have actually been a good team to fade late in the year. Since 1997 the Blue Devils have posted a 47-74 ATS record in March games. I think the oddsmakers have favored the wrong team today and Virginia picks up a win in the ACC Championship.

4* Vegas Insider on Brooklyn Nets -

After picking up a road win over Miami in their last outing, the Brooklyn Nets are the hottest team in the NBA right now. They have won seven of their last eight games, and have a matching 7-1 ATS record during that stretch. The Nets will face a Wizards team that is starting to cool off after having lost two of their last three games.

The Wizards are not a team that gets a lot of benefit from home court advantage. Statistically they they do not improve on either end of the court, and they have a 16-16 record at home this season. They are playing in a very touch spot after facing the Magic on the road last night, while Brooklyn is coming into this matchup with two full days of rest.

The Nets are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games against Southeast Division opponents. The Wizards on the other hand are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams from the Eastern Conference. Washington is also 2-10 ATS at home against a team that has a losing record on the road. I think the fact that Brooklyn struggled on the road early in the season has only created value on them today, and the Nets pick up a dominating win over the Wizards in this matchup.

5* MAC Tournament Game of the Year on Toledo -

The Toledo Rockets are clearly the better team, and this line does not do them justice. Toledo averages 79.9 points per game this season, and when playing on the road or a neutral court their offensive production has barely slowed down still averaging 77.6 points per game. They are up against a Western Michigan team that is averaging a mere 67.4 points per game on the road.

These teams split there regular season games, but it is Toledo that won in the most recent meeting. The Rockets picked up an 11 point win just over two weeks ago, and a change to a neutral court will not be enough for the Broncos to narrow their margin of loss by enough points to cover this spread. Western Michigan is also coming off an overtime time in their last outing. Playing in a back-to-back is hard enough for college teams, but when the first half of that back-to-back went to overtime I just don't see how the Broncos will be able to physically keep pace with the Rockets.

Toledo is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven neutral court games. They are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams that have won 60 percent or more of their games on the season. Toledo has been the better ball control team this season averaging just 10 turnovers per game to 14 turnovers per game from the Broncos. Toledo has covered three of their lat four games against the spread, and I like that trend to continue today.

3* No Doubt Rout on San Diego State -

These teams met twice during the regular season and split their games. It is San Diego State that won the most recent matchup just one week ago today. I don't see a lot of reason to expect a different outcome in today's game. The Aztecs are the better team, and it will show on the court today.

While they do not get a lot of attention or credit, it is worth noting that San Diego State has the second ranked scoring defense in the country. The Aztecs have surrendered a mere 56.6 points per game this season. That has come against a schedule that has been anything but easy. San Diego State has faced five teams that were ranked at the time of play, and they have a 4-1 record in those games.

This matchup fits into a system to play against teams like New Mexico that average 74 to 78 points per game when they are facing an excellent defense allowing 63 points per game or less on a neutral court and they lead their last three games by five or more points at the half. This matchup identifies teams that are overvalued because of their ability to get off to a quick start. This system has a 64-30 (68%) ATS record. The better team will prevail in the second half, and that team is San Diego State.

4* No Brainer on VCU -

The Rams quickly fell out of the top 25 ranking early in the season, but have since earned their way back. I think a lot of people gave up on VCU a little prematurely, and it seems as though the oddsmakers have still not not caught on to just how talented the Rams are this season. VCU has now won five consecutive games coming into this matchup with George Washington, and they were able to get key players a little extra rest time thanks to a dominating win over Richmond in their A-10 Tournament opener.

George Washington picked up a win at home against the Rams back in January, but VCU responded by picking up a 17 point win when the teams met again in February. On a neutral court the advantage has to be with VCU. The team forces an average of 19 turnovers per game, and it is that defense that makes them a dangerous team against anyone in the country. I think George Washington's win early in the season was an anomaly. The Rams are 4-1 both straight up and against the spread in head-to-head history with the Colonials.

VCU is 8-2 ATS when coming off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival this season. They are also 11-3 ATS after three consecutive conference games. That is a very telling statistic about the disparity in talent between the Rams and the remainder of the Atlantic 10 conference. VCU should pick up an easy win in this semifinal matchup over Georgia Washington.

4* Sun Belt Tournament Game of the Year on Georgia State -

Arkansas State has to be exhausted after their four overtime matchup with Arkansas-Little Rock last night. Now they are tasked with playing a well rested Georgia State team. The Panthers are playing with six days of rest coming into this game. Georgia State is also the hottest team in the conference. They have posted a 17-1 record in conference play this season.

The first thing to go for a tired team is usually its defense. Effort on the defensive end of the court has been an issue for the Red Wolves even when they are not coming off a quadruple overtime game. Arkansas State has surrendered an average of 78.6 points per game when playing away from home this season, and now they are up against a Georgia State offense that has averaged 78.1 points per game on the season.

Arkansas State is a good team to fade when facing a good ball handling team. They are 27-45 ATS against teams committing 14 or less turnovers after 15 or more games in the season. Georgia State is 8-0 ATS in road or neutral court games when playing a team with a winning record after 15 or more games on the season. The Red Wolves will not be able to keep this game close after their grueling game last night so I have Georgia State winning this game in a blowout.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Virginia -

When these teams met during the regular season the Cavaliers held Pitt to a mere 45 points. That game was played on Pittsburgh's home court, so I can only imagine what Virginia will be able to accomplish in this neutral court rematch. Virginia is the hottest team in college basketball right now, and I expect the Panthers to struggle against the nation's No. 1 ranked scoring defense.

The Cavaliers have surrendered a mere 55.4 points per game this season. While they have been spectacular on defense, the team is also playing well offensively. Their 66.2 points per game may not rank among the best in basketball, but the schedule has been anything but easy with opponents averaging just 66.7 points surrendered. This will be Pittsburgh's third game in three days and I think the wear and tear of consecutive back-to-back games will be too much for the Panthers to handle against a top tier team like Virginia.

The oddsmakers have undervalued Virginia for most of the season. The Cavaliers have a respectable 18-10 record against the spread. They are 9-0 ATS against teams outscoring opponents by four or more points per game after 15 or more games, and they are 8-0 ATS against teams making over 45 percent of their shot attempts after 15 or more games. Pitt has not performed well in games that are expected to be defensive battles. The Panthers are 6-15 ATS when the total opens between 120 to 129.5 points over the last two seasons.

5* Conference Tournament Game of the Year on Georgia -

Ole Miss had to use a lot of energy rallying from an early 13-point deficit to beat in-state rival Mississippi State. I don't see the Rebels and those tired legs being able to hang with a talented and underrated Georgia team tonight. The Bulldogs are fresh off a full 5 days rest and will be out to make a statement. Georgia tied for 2nd in the SEC with a 12-6 record, yet are not even being talked about as an NCAA Tournament team.

While Ole Miss comes in off back-to-back wins, they have not been playing all that great of late. They are just 5-7 since the start of February and four of those five losses came against teams who finished the year with a losing record. Georgia on the other hand is playing some of their best basketball. The Bulldogs are 8-2 over their last 10 games with the only two losses coming on the road against Tennessee and Arkansas.

Georgia has been a covering machine. The Bulldogs are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 conference games and 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games overall. Ole Miss is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 following a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning record.

5* Big Ten Game of the Year on Michigan State -

Northwestern is coming off a surprising win over Iowa in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament, but the magic stops here. The Wildcats put everything they had on the line in that game and I just don't see them having enough left in the tank to keep it close against a Michigan State team that is back to full strength and ready to prove they are the best team in the Big 10. Northwestern basically played just six players last night against the Hawkeyes, as Nikola Cerina played just 2 minutes.

Even without their full lineup, Michigan State was able to beat the Wildcats rather easily in both regular season meetings. The Spartans won by 14-points at Northwestern and 15-points at home. With a healthy lineup and tired legs for the Wildcats, I could see this turning into a 20+ point blowout rather quickly.

While Michigan State lost their final game of the regular season 67-69 at Ohio State, that sets up a very favorable system for the Spartans. Favorites of 10 to 19.5 points who have a winning record, are off a road cover where they lost outright and playing a team with a losing record are 65-29 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% system in favor of a Spartan cover!

3* Oddsmakers Error on Washington Wizards -

The Wizards are playing in a great spot to snap their two game losing streak and pick up a big win over the Magic. Orlando has lost four consecutive games, and even with Washington's losses in their last two games the Wizards have still won eight of their last 11 games. Orlando has been horrible against the division this season posting a 3-9 record and allowing 105 points per game. They are -6.4 points per game in scoring differential when facing a division opponent.

Washington's explosive offense should have no problem scoring on Orlando today. The Magic have surrendered 102.2 points per game overall, and 105.6 points per game over their last five games. Orlando has had a lot of trouble scoring points this season. They average 97 points per game overall, but I think they will struggle to match that number tonight. Washington has held division opponents to 96.5 points per game this season and Orlando is one of the worst teams in the division.

You should play against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Orlando when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 points or more and they are coming off a home loss. This system is 90-47 (66%) against the spread over the last five seasons. You should also play on road favorites like Washington against a division opponent when they are coming off an upset loss as a favorite against another division opponent. This system is 72-38 (66%) against the spread.

4* SEC No Doubt Rout on Kentucky -

The Wildcats are the better team and they should have no problem picking up a win over LSU today. The Tigers are playing in a very tough spot after playing against Alabama yesterday in the opening round of the SEC Tournament. Playing in a back-to-back situation is hard enough on its own, but to have to face a top tier team like the Wildcats in the second half of that back-to-back will prove to be too much for LSU.

These teams split their games during the regular season, but Kentucky picked up a win in the most recent meeting. Kentucky is one of the top rebounding teams in the country, and I think this tired LSU team will be at a big disadvantage against the nation's fifth ranked team in rebounds per game. LSU finished the regular season losing five of its final eight games. They benefited from an easy matchup with Alabama in the opening round of the tournament, but they won't be as lucky today against the Wildcats.

3* Bailout on Arkansas State -

This line is not an accurate reflection of the disparity in talent between these teams. Arkansas State posted an 18-12 overall record, while Arkansas-Little Rock comes into this game with a losing record of 15-16 overall. The Red Wolves also finished higher in Sun Belt standings. When these teams met in January the Red Wolves picked up a 28 points win. They may have lost on the road against the Trojans, but that was a close game and on a neutral court Arkansas State should have no problem picking up another dominating win.

The Red Wolves offense averages 75.7 points per game. When playing away from home that number only dips slightly down to 74.4 points per game. Arkansas-Little Rock on the other hand averages just 70.1 points per game overall. The Trojans see their offensive production take a big hit on the road dropping down to 67.5 points per game. Arkansas State also has a defensive advantage holding opponents to 70.4 points per game to 72.7 points allowed by the Trojans.

4* ACC ATS Bloodbath on Syracuse -

Syracuse struggled down the final stretch of the regular season, but they have had plenty of time to regroup coming into the conference tournament. I think they are at a huge advantage playing with four full days of rest, while NC State is playing in a back-to-back situation after squeaking by Miami in the opening round yesterday. The Orange may have lost four of their last six games, but it is important to remember those are the only four losses the team suffered all season.

The biggest advantage Syracuse has in this matchup is its outstanding zone defense. The Orange have held opponents to a mere 59.3 points per game this season, a feat that gives them the country's ninth ranked scoring defense. These teams met once this season and it was Syracuse that walked away with a win. That win may have been by a slim margin, but a big reason for that can be credited to the fact that the Orange were coming off a close road win over longtime rival Pitt in the game just three days prior.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Syracuse. You should play on neutral court favorites like the Orange when they are coming off two or more consecutive overs and they are facing an opponent coming off three or more consecutive overs. This system identifies favorites that the oddsmakers have undervalued, and it has resulted in a 65-34 (66%) ATS system.

3* Big Ten Main Event on Wisconsin -

Wisconsin is clearly the better team and laying such a small number clearly puts the value on the Badgers. Wisconsin finished the regular season by winning eight of its nine final games. They have had four days to rest and prepare for tournament play, and that will be a big advantage going up against a Minnesota team that is playing in a back-to-back situation. College teams do not play on back-to-back nights very often, and I don't think the Gophers will be conditioned well enough to compete with a top tier team like Wisconsin when playing in this situation.

These teams met twice during the regular season and Wisconsin picked up a win in the most recent meeting. The biggest advantage the Badgers have is a scoring defense that has surrendered just 64.2 points per game this season. The offense is averaging 73.1 points per game and the Badgers are poised to easily match that number against the Gophers soft defense. Minnesota has surrendered 71.9 points per game when playing away from home.

3* No Doubt Rout on Western Michigan +

The oddsmakers have favored the wrong team in this matchup. Western Michigan comes into this game with two less losses than Akron, and they have a statistically significant advantage on both ends of the court. They also have a better conference record at 14-4 to 13-6 from the Zips.

Offensively Western Michigan averages 71.9 points per game. They are up against an Akron defense that has surrendered 72.5 points per game when playing away from home this season. On the defensive side of things Western Michigan is surrendering a mere 67.4 points per game overall, and it should be easy to match that number since Akron is not a high scoring team with 68.1 points scored per game.

Western Michigan has won 10 of its last 11 games coming into this game. They are averaging 77.4 points per game over their last five games, and it is their explosive offense that makes them an easy call over Akron. We will take the points, but I expect Western Michigan to win this game outright.

5* Atlantic 10 Tournament Game of the Year on VCU -

This is a perfect spot to jump on VCU. Richmond is playing undermanned right now with the injury to leading scorer Cedrick Lindsay. While the Spiders were able to come away with an impressive 76-64 win over Duquesne in their A-10 tournament opener, that didn't come as a huge surprise. Richmond beat Duquesne by 17-points on the road without Linsay back on Feb. 12. While the Spiders only lost by 6-points at home to VCU recently (March 6), the Rams didn't show up until the second half of that game.

I look for the score to be a lot more lopsided this time around. VCU isn't going to take Richmond likely after almost losing to them. Another big key here is the Spiders are playing on no rest, while VCU is fresh off a 5-day layoff. That pressure defense that the Rams rely so much on should be at its finest and I expect it to lead to an easy double-digit win.

Richmond is just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 following a game where they covered the spread and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs a team that has won 60% or more of their games. VCU is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 overall and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record.

4* Atlantic 10 No Brainer on St Joseph's -

The Hawks are one of the most underrated teams in the Atlantic 10 and I think they easily get past the Flyers today. Dayton has not performed well on the road this season. They are scoring 73.6 points per game, but the defense has surrendered 72 points per game. St Joseph's on the other hand comes into this matchup holding opponents to 69.9 points per game on the road and 67.8 points per game overall. In a game with a single point line that is a very statistically significant difference in scoring defense.

Another key factor for today's game will be free throws. The Hawks are a very smart team averaging just 16 personal fouls per game, and sending opponents to the free throw line for an average of 18 attempts per game. Dayton on the other hand has a lot of problems getting into foul trouble. They average 23 personal fouls per game when playing on the road, and their opponents have averaged 28 free throw attempts in those games. Those extra attempts from the line will prove to be a big factor in a game that is projected to be close, and it gives the Hawks a significant advantage.

The Dayton Flyers have not performed well against slow-down teams like the Hawks. They are 14-28 against the spread against teams averaging 53 or less shot attempts per game after 15 or more games on the season. St Josephs secured a first round bye and they are well rested coming into this matchup. The Hawks are coming off a loss to La Salle to end the regular season and they are 6-0 ATS off a home loss to a conference opponent.

5* No Doubt Rout of the Year on Virginia -

I don't think Florida State is worthy of playing in this quarterfinals matchup against Virginia, and the Cavaliers should have no problem picking up a double-digit win. These teams met twice during the regular season and the Cavaliers picked up a 12-point win in both of those games. Playing on a neutral court does not help the Seminoles since they could not even keep the game within single digits when playing at home.

The Virginia Cavaliers have the No. 1 ranked scoring defense in the country. They have held opponents to a mere 55.4 points per game. Florida State is not a high scoring team to begin with averaging just 68 points per game when playing away from home. Virginia also enters this game as one of the hottest teams in the country having won 13 of its last 14 games.

Florida State is a team that buckles under the pressure of playing a quality opponent. The Seminoles are 2-13 ATS versus teams that are outscoring opponents by eight or more points per game after 15 or more games in the season. The Cavaliers are outscoring opponents by an average of 10.9 points per game this year. Virginia is also well rested since they secured a first round bye in the tournament. They are 13-3 ATS when playing only their second game in a week this season.

4* C-USA Tournament Vegas Insider on Louisiana Tech -

The Bulldogs should have no problem covering this large spread against Charlotte. Louisiana Tech destroyed the 49ers 80-60 in the only regular season meeting. Keep in mind that Charlotte had a full 4 days to prepare for that game. This time around they must face the Bulldogs on no rest, as they had to play UAB yesterday.

Louisiana Tech is 8-1 ATS when playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons, while the 49ers are a dreadful 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games at least 15 games into the season versus an opponent who is outscoring the opposition by 8+ points/game. The Bulldogs are also 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games against poor pressure defenses that forced 14 or fewer turnovers/game and have have won these contest by an average of 16.4 ppg.

3* No Doubt Rout on Texas -

The Longhorns are an easy call in this matchup with West Virginia. Texas has been underrated all season long, and playing on a neutral court takes away any advantage West Virginia would have had over the Longhorns. The Mountaineers struggled on the road this season with a 6-9 record, and only three of those road wins came during conference play, and they happened to come against three of the worst teams in the Big 12.

Texas has a huge rebounding matchup over the Mountaineers. The Longhorns rank fourth in the country in rebounds per game with 41.8, and those extra rebounds will translate to extra shot attempts. Both of these teams have put up similar shooting percentages from the field, so I think those extra rebounds and shot attempts will be a huge factor in this game. Texas has also been a very good ball control team this season committing just 12 turnovers per game on average.

These teams met twice this season and Texas picked up a 2-0 sweep over West Virginia. When playing on the Mountaineers home court the Longhorns won by 11 points. Playing at home Texas picked up a dominating 17 point win. This is a neutral court matchup, but I expect the end result to easily land somewhere between those two prior games. Texas has a 22-9 record this season and they have faced a total of nine ranked teams. The Longhorns might be the biggest sleeper in the Big 12, and they will have no problem getting past the Mountaineers today.

3* AAC Tournament Main Event on Cincinnati -

The Bearcats earned the No. 1 seed in the American Athletic Tournament, but aren't getting a whole lot of respect. Oddsmakers listed Louisville as the overwhelming favorite and even Memphis had better odds to win the tournament. This can't be sitting well with Cincinnati and I look for them to come out with a chip on their shoulder and make a big time statement with a blowout win over a pretty bad UCF team.

The Knights won a dogfight yesterday against Temple 94-90 and I just don't see them being able to match the Bearcat's energy in this one. Cincinnati is one of the best defensive teams in the country and should be playing with a lot of energy on that side of the ball with a full 4 days of rest.

The important thing to note is that Cincinnati won both meetings during the regular season by more than the spread listed. They won 69-51 at home and 77-49 at UCF. This is clearly not a good matchup for the Knights and I expect this to get ugly rather quickly.

UCF is just 2-8 ATS versus good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field this season and have lost these contests by an average of 14.5 ppg. The Knights are also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against a team that has won more than 60% of their games. Cincinnati is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 road games after winning at least 4 of their last 5 and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played on a neutral site. Combined this adds up to a 76% system in favor of the Bearcats.

4* Vegas Insider on Long Beach State -

The Long Beach State 49ers have been a great team to back when playing away from home this season. They have posted a 10-6 ATS record in road games. CS-Fullerton on the other hand has been a great team to fade away from home, posting a 4-10 ATS record.

The value in this matchup is on Long Beach State laying the points. They are going up against a Fullerton defense that has surrendered 73.8 points per game on the road this season. The 49ers also have a big advantage on the boards. They average 37 rebounds per game, with 12 coming on the offensive glass. Fullerton on the other hand averages only 34 rebounds per game (-1 rebounding margin) with a mere nine boards coming on the offensive glass.

Long Beach State is 65-39 ATS in road or neutral court games when playing against a team with a losing record. CS-Fullerton has an 8-16 ATS record against good ball handling teams that are committing 14 or less turnovers per game. The 49ers come into this matchup averaging a mere 12 turnovers per game. Long Beach State is also the hot team coming into this matchup. They have won four of their last six games, while CS-Fullerton has lost two consecutive coming into tournament play.

5* Mountain West Tournament Game of the Year on UNLV -

This may be the Mountain West Tournament, but it is a home game for UNLV. There is not a lot of travel for the Rebels, while the Cowboys make the trek to Las Vegas as heavy underdogs. Wyoming is one of the most overrated teams in the conference. They average a mere 57.5 points per game when playing on the road or in a neutral court game, and they are facing a UNLV team that is averaging 72 points per game on the season.

The Rebels are an outstanding team defensively. They have held opponents to just 65.1 points per game at home this season. Against this Cowboys team that struggles on the road they should easily improve on that number. The Cowboys will also be without Larry Nance who happens to be the team's leading scorer. The Cowboys would struggle against the Rebels with Nance, but without him this matchup will be a double-digit blowout.

Wyoming is struggling coming into the conference tournament. They have lost four of their last five games straight up, and they have lost five of their last six games against the spread. I don't think the oddsmakers can set the bar high enough without Nance in the lineup for the Cowboys, so that is a trend that should continue today. Lay the points with the Rebels because they should win this game in a blowout.

3* American Athletic Afternoon Annihilator on Louisville -

Louisville comes into today's showdown with Rutgers on a full 4 days of rest, while the Scarlet Knights have a quick turnaround from victory yesterday against South Florida. The Cardinals closed out the regular season 9-1 over their final 10 games and finished with a 33-point statement win over Connecticut. This is a lot of points to be laying, but there's a big enough gap in talent that Louisville should win here by 20+ rather easily. While the Cardinals won just 83-76 at Rutgers in the first meeting, they destroyed the Scarlet Knights 102-54 in the second meeting at home.

When Louisville is rolling is typically a good idea to jump on the bandwagon. The Cardinals 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games off a conference win, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games with a 4-1 record over their last 5 and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games off a home win. This is also the time of the season where Louisville shines. The Cardinals are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played in the month of March. It's also worth noting that the Cardinals are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games played on a neural site.

5* Conference Tournament No Brainer on San Diego State -

The Aztecs closed out the regular season on a 4-game winning streak, including a thrilling 51-48 come from behind win over New Mexico in the finale to give them the outright Mountain West title. I look for No. 8 ranked San Diego State to carry over that momentum with a convincing win over Utah State. While this will be the Aztecs first game of the Mountain West Tournament, the Aggies had to play Colorado State yesterday. No rest is bad news for Utah State against a top notch team like San Diego State.

The Aztecs won both meetings during the regular season, winning 74-69 on the road and 60-45 at home. San Diego State should have no trouble winning here by double-digits, so don't worry about the 8-point spread.

While the Aggies come in having won three straight, they are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games off 3 or more consecutive wins against conference opponents. Utah State is also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games versus good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 39% or worse from the field.

San Diego State is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games when playing only their 2nd game in a week, 16-7 ATS in their last 23 after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games after 5 straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers.

5* ACC Tournament Game of the Year on Pitt -

The Pitt Panthers might be the biggest sleeper in the ACC and I don't think they will have any problem getting past Wake Forest today. This is a neutral court matchup which plays heavily in the Panthers favor since the Demon Deacons are 3-11 when playing away from home this season. Against conference opponents Wake Forest has averaged a mere 66.4 points per game, and when playing on the road or a neutral court that average dips down to 65.9 points per game.

Pittsburgh has one of the best defenses in the conference. They have held opponents to a mere 62.5 points per game this season. The team ranks 23rd in the country in scoring defense. On the offensive end of the court Pitt should have no problem putting up a big number. The Demon Deacons have surrendered 76.5 points per game on the road this season.

This matchup fits into a system to play on neutral court favorites like Pitt after one or more consecutive overs and their opponent has gone over the total three or more consecutive times. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have undervalued the favorite. It has resulted in a 121-68 (64%) record against the spread. When the favorite is coming off two or more consecutive overs the system tightens up to 64-31 (67%) against the spread.

3* A-10 Tournament Play of the Day on Dayton -

The Flyers have been a team on a mission down the stretch. Dayton is 9-1 since Feb. 1 and are an impressive 7-3 ATS during this run. Don't be fooled by Fordham's 70-67 upset win over George Mason in the opening round of the A-10 Tournament. The Rams had lost 8 straight prior to that victory and six of those losses came by double-digits. In the lone meeting between these two teams this season, Dayton won 80-68 at Fordham, which leaves plenty of reason to believe they can win on a neutral setting by 11+. Keep in mind that the Flyers have a big advantage here playing on a full 4 days of rest, while the Rams are forced to play their second game in two days.

Even with yesterday's win over George Mason, Fordham is 3-12 on the road this season. One of the keys to playing to Dayton is that the Rams are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games off a win and have lost these contests by an average of 21.3 ppg.

Dayton is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs a team with a losing record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus a team that has won fewer than 40% of their games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a neutral site.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Tulsa -

These teams met once earlier this season and it was the same kind of blowout I think we can expect today in the C-USA Tournament. Tulsa picked up a 97-71 win in that first meeting. Tulane is a very soft team defensively. They have allowed just shy of 73 points per game when playing on the road, while their opponents scoring average is only 69.9 points per game. Today they run into a Tulsa team averaging 73.2 points per game.

Tulsa is the hot team coming into this matchup. Tulane has lost two of their last three, and they did not deserve to win the game against North Texas in their last outing. Tulsa on the other hand has won eight consecutive games straight up, and 10 consecutive against the spread. The Golden Hurricane's opponents have a scoring average of almost 71 points per game, yet they have held those opponents to 68.2 points per game. That tells me this is a very talented team defensively, and they are facing a Tulane team that averages just 61.3 points per game on the road.

Tulsa is 8-1 against the spread when facing a poor ball movement teams that average less than 12 assists per game. Tulane averages just nine assists per game while committing 13 turnovers which is a good indication of just how bad the Green Wave are. If you think revenge is going to be a factor you can think again. The first matchup was played back in January, so I doubt the Green Wave will draw much motivation from that loss. It is also worth noting that Tulane is 11-22 ATS when revenging a same season loss over the last three seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -

The Clippers are riding an eight game win streak, and I see no reason why they won't be able to continue to keep that record intact on their home court today. Over their last five games the Clippers are averaging an impressive 115 points per game, while the defense has surrendered a mere 95.8 points per game. They are facing a Golden State team that has surrendered 101 points per game to division opponents this season.

Rest profiles are also in favor of the Clippers. They come into this game with a day to prepare, while Golden State is coming off a game last night where they hosted Dallas. Golden State's up-tempo style of play plays into the Clippers favor. They are 47-29 against the spread versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shot attempts per game.

You should play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Clippers when they are revenging a road loss of 10 points or more and the game involves two good teams having won 60 to 75% of their games on the season. The last time these teams met the game was played at Golden State and the Warriors won big, so I expect the Clippers to play with a chip on their shoulder tonight. This system is 116-70 (62%) against the spread.

5* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year on Knicks -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. The New York Knicks are playing for a season best fifth consecutive win. Almost surprisingly, the Knicks are just 3.5 games back on Atlanta for the eighth and final seed in the playoffs. With the season winding down this is a motivated team that will be hungry for a win against a Boston team that is not far behind them in the conference standings.

Boston is playing in a tough spot after losing on the road just last night to Indiana. Now they have to play in a tough back-to-back situation against a red hot and well rested Knicks team. A bad team like the Celtics usually does not fare well in these situations. Add in the fact that New York is averaging 108.2 points per game over its last five games while Boston is allowing 99.8 points per game during that stretch and we have a blowout in the making.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against the Celtics. You should fade home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Boston when they are revenging a loss against their opponent, and they are coming off a road cover where the team lost straight up as an underdog. This system finds home underdogs the oddsmakers have overvalued. It has resulted in a 64-27 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Toronto Raptors -

The Detroit Pistons are really struggling right now. They have lost 10 of their last 13 games, and although they picked up a win over Sacramento in their last outing, they have done very little to show any signs of life. Now the Pistons are tasked with facing one of the best teams in the Atlantic division.

If the losing streak and a tough opponent were not enough, their unfavorable rest profile should be. Detroit is playing in a back to pack situation after hosting the Kings last night. They have to face a Toronto team that is playing with a day of rest, and the Raptors should be playing with plenty of motivation after dropping a close game on the road with their division rival.

You should play against teams like Detroit when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 points or more, and that opponent is coming off a loss against a division rival. The last time these teams met Toronto handed the Pistons a 112-91 beat down. This system has a very favorable 84-38 (69%) record against the spread over the last five seasons. When the team is an underdog revenging a loss that system tightens up to 57-24 (70%) against the spread.

3* ACC Play of the Day on Boston College +

The wrong team appears to be favored in this matchup. Boston College should have no problem winning this game against Georgia Tech. The Eagles may have finished towards the bottom of the ACC standings, but the Yellow Jackets were right there with them. Statistically Boston College is a much better team than Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are averaging 65 points per game away from home while allowing 69.1 points in those games. Meanwhile, Boston College comes into this matchup averaging 68.6 points per game on the season.

I think the Eagles defensive stats are a bit misleading. When you look at their strength of schedule, Boston College's opponents have a scoring average over 70 points per game. Facing a lowly team like Georgia Tech provides a great opportunity for Boston College to showcase its defensive talents.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Eagles. You should play on an underdog like Boston College when they are revenging a close loss by three points or less, and they are coming off a road loss by 10 points or more. In this situation the oddsmakers have a tendency to severely undervalue underdogs, and it has resulted in a 130-77 (63%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Washington +

The Utah Utes have not been a very good team on the road, and although this is not a traditional road game, I still think they will struggle on a neutral court against an underrated team like Washington. These teams met twice this season and split their games in some very close battles. At this price I think the value is on the underdog since this is a matchup that will be close, but could certainly be won by either team.

The Utes take a big hit in offensive production when playing on the road. Their scoring average drops from 77 points per game down to 64 points per game. Washington on the other hand may have a slightly lower overall scoring average at 74.9 points per game, but their 70.5 points per game away from home will give them a big advantage over the Utes today.

The Huskies had a strong finish to the season winning three of their final four games. They closed the season with a win over USC, but failed to cover the spread in their last two matchups. Washington is 25-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games. Utah comes into this matchup playing some of its worst defense of the season. The Utes are 21-49 ATS in road games after two straight games where they had five seals or less.

5* Conference USA Tournament Game of the Year on UTSA +

The Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners did not have a great season overall, but I still think they are a n easy call in this matchup with one of the conference's worst teams, East Carolina. The Roadrunners biggest problem this season was a defense that struggled to slow opponents down. During the final stretch of the regular season they seemed to have things back on track defensively. The team allowed over 76 points per game on the season, but over their last five games they held opponents to a mere 71.4 points per game.

East Carolina averages just 70.3 points per game when playing away from home. The defense has surrendered 72.8 points per game in those games. The Pirates only faced the Roadrunners once this season and that game was played at East Carolina. On a neutral court UTSA should have no problem narrowing the margin of defeat, and I even expect the Roadrunners to have a good chance at winning this game in the final seconds.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the UTSA Roadrunners. You should play against teams like East Carolina on a neutral court when they have gone under the total by 42 points or more in their last seven games and they have a winning record on the season and are playing a team with a losing record. This system has a 50-15 (77%) record against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. Milwaukee is one of the worst teams in the league, and the Bucks have done very little to show they are capable of keeping this game close against an excellent offensive team like Minnesota. The Timberwolves are averaging 106.6 points per game at home, while Milwaukee has surrendered an average of 104 points per game on the road this season.

What makes things even worse for the Bucks is the fact that they are forced to play in a back-to-back situation after hosting Orlando last night. Now they face this Minnesota team that is playing with a day of rest. The Bucks are 1-11 ATS when playing their fourth game in five days, and that is a trend that should continue tonight against Minnesota.

You should play on teams like Minnesota in a game involving two teams allowing 102 points per game or more, after they have scored 100 points or more in four straight games. This system is 77-42 (65%) against the spread over the last five seasons. The worst team in the league will not be able to stop Minnesota tonight and the W'Wolves win this game in a blowout.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Memphis Grizzlies -

At one point in the season the Portland Trailblazers looked nearly unstoppable. That day is long gone, and now they enter tonight's matchup with Memphis having lost three of their last four games. The Grizzlies on the other hand have won four of their last five games, as their season begins to turn the corner.

Over their last five games the Grizzlies offense has really turned things up. They are averaging 102 points per game, while the defense is surrendering a mere 93.8 points per game. That tough Grizzlies defense should give the Trailblazers fits tonight, and Portland's poor defensive play on the road (105.6 points per game allowed) should allow Memphis to easily pull away with a win.

This matchup fits into a system to fade Portland. You should play against teams like the Grizzlies when they are revenging a straight up loss against an opponent as a home favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog. This system has a very profitable record of 127-74 (63%) against the spread.

3* Bailout Blowout on South Dakota State -

Winning during a conference tournament has a lot to do with which teams get hot at the right time. There is no team in the Summit League hotter than the Jackrabbits. They have won nine of their last 10 games, and after putting a 21 point beat down on Western Illinois I like there chances to pick up a big win on a neutral court against IPFW.

These teams split their games this season. When IPFW played host the squeaked by with a seven point win in a game that was much closer than the final score. When the Jackrabbits played host they dominated with a 28 point victory. The neutral court is going to favor the better team, and that better team is without a doubt South Dakota State.

Not only has South Dakota State been winning games straight up, they have also covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games. They have done so by playing outstanding defense. IPFW has played a soft schedule down the stretch and that has afforded the Mastodons with a 54.5 percent shooting percentage from the field over their last five games. They won't have that luxury today against this Jackrabbits team that has allowed a mere 39.9 percent shooting percentage over their last five games.

3* Total Dominator on Raptors/Nets UNDER

With the playoffs drawing near I expect two of the best teams in the Atlantic Division to play to their strengths. Both of these teams are soft on offensive production, but both have played some outstanding defense this year. The total on this game is far too high for a matchup that should prove to be a defensive battle.

The Raptors come into this game holding opponents to a mere 96.5 points per game on the road. They have put up that stellar number against teams with a much more potent offense than what the Nets bring to this game. Toronto's opponents have a scoring average over 100 points per game, but Brooklyn is averaging just 97.4 points per game this season. It is a similar story for Brooklyn. The Nets have held opponents averaging 100.1 points per game to just 97.2 points when playing at home. They will host a Raptors team averaging 98.6 points per game on the road this season.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the under. You should play the under when the total is 190 to 199.5 points and one of the teams (Brooklyn) is off a home win by 10 points or more, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off an upset win as a road underdog. In this situation the under has a 142-91 (61%) record.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Charlotte Bobcats -

The Charlotte Bobcats have won six consecutive home games, and they should have no problem making it a seventh straight when they host the Denver Nuggets tonight. Denver has been horrible on the road this season posting an 11-19 record. The biggest problem for the Nuggets has been their defense. They are allowing 107.1 points per game on the road.

Charlotte may not be known for an explosive offensive attack since the team averages 95.4 points per game, but that should change in this matchup with Denver. The Bobcats are averaging 101 points per game over their last five games, and they are facing a Nuggets team that has surrendered 116 points per game over their last five games. Charlotte has the benefit of home court advantage, and the Bobcats are also getting Denver in a back-to-back situation after playing New Orleans on the road yesterday.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Bobcats. You should play against road underdogs like Denver when they are revenging a home loss and their opponent is coming off a loss on the road. This system is 164-103 (61%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Main Event on Miami Ohio -

The records for these teams are a bit misleading. Miami Ohio played a very tough non-conference schedule so they are coming into the first round of the MAC Tournament with a 12-17 overall record. Their 8-10 record in MAC play is one game better than opponent Kent State. The RedHawks have a recent win over the Golden Flashes, beating Kent State on its home court 73-61 just under a week ago.

The Golden Flashes finished the regular season by losing four of their last five games. They are averaging a mere 65 points per game during that stretch, while allowing 68.6 points per game on the defensive end of the court. Kent State has not fared well on the road this season, and with home court advantage there is no reason the RedHawks cannot pick up another double-digit win against the Golden Flashes tonight.

Fading Kent State come tournament time has proved to be a very lucrative move over the last few seasons. They Golden Flashes are 2-11 ATS in all tournament games over the last three seasons. These teams may have split games this season with Kent State winning the first meeting, but that victory was a statistical anomaly. The Golden Flashes made 58 percent of their 26 three-point attempts in that game, and that is a feat that is very unlikely to take place again since the team has made just 34.6 percent of their attempts on the season. The matchup from last week is a more telling indicator of what we can expect to see tonight.

5* Southeast Division Game of the Month on Wizards +

The Miami Heat are playing in a very tough spot tonight. First of all, the Heat have lost three consecutive games coming into this matchup. The Heat just played yesterday in Chicago in a losing effort against the Bulls. Now they are tasked with returning home to host the Wizards in a back-to-back situation when Washington is coming into this game with a day of rest.

Washington is one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now. The Wizards have won eight of their last night games, including five consecutive on the road. Washington is averaging 115.6 points per game over their last five games, and they are averaging 104.7 points per game against division opponents. The defense has really stepped up in those division games, allowing a mere 96 points per game.

You should play against home teams like Miami when they are revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points and they are playing on back-to-back days. This system is 99-50 (66%) against the spread over the last five seasons. You should also play on road teams like Washington when they are averaging 98 to 102 points per game and are facing a defense allowing the same number of points aver 42 or more games, and that road team has scored 100 points or more in two straight games. This system is 48-17 (74%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -

The Pacers may be on a three game skid, but they are still clearly the best team in the league. Their recent losing streak has only created value as Indiana looks to get some revenge against Dallas from a loss last month. The Mavericks are not playing much better than Indiana, so it is surprising to see the Pacers listed as such a small favorite. Dallas has lost three of its last four games coming into this matchup.

The Indiana Pacers have the best defense in the league in terms of points allowed. They have held opponents to a mere 92 points per game this season. The last time they faced the Mavericks the Pacers gave up just 81 points. They suffered from a poor shooting performance in that game, but that was an anomaly that should not be credited to good defensive play from Dallas. The Mavericks have allowed 102.5 points per game at home this season and opponents are making 47 percent of their shot attempts in those games.

You should play against home underdogs like Dallas when they are averaging less than 14.5 turnovers per game and are facing a team that forces less than 14.5 turnovers per game after 42 or more games. This system is 233-157 (60%) against the spread over the last five seasons. Indiana is the better team, and winning by two points should be an easy task for the best team in the East.

3* Oddsmakers Error on La Salle +

The Explorers are an easy call in this matchup against Saint Joseph's. La Salle will have several key advantages today. They are the better rebounding team pulling in 36 boards per game which ranks 114th in the nation. The Hawks on the other hand rank 151st in the nation in rebounds per game. Defensively La Salle has played incredibly well this season, especially when on the road. They are holding opponents to just 66.2 points per game.

The Hawks do not have a lot to play for in this game. They cannot move ahead of Saint Louis in the A-10 standings, so at this point they are just trying to prepare for the conference tournament. La Salle comes into this matchup having won two of its last three games. They are playing to end the season on a positive note after a bad stretch in February.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play against favorites like St Josephs when they have gone over the total by more than six points in four consecutive games, and they are playing against an opponent that has gone under the total by 36 points or more combined in their last five games. This system is 40-20 (67%) against the spread.

4* Total Annihilator of the Week on Heat/Bulls UNDER

This matchup features two very talented defenses. The Heat have held opponents to 98.5 points per game on the road this season. Those opponents have a scoring average of 100 points per game so they should easily improve on that number against this Bulls team that is averaging only 93 points per game.

Chicago has arguably the best defense in the league. They have held opponents to 89.6 points per game when playing at home. Over their last five games they have surrendered just 91.2 points per game. The Bulls have put these numbers up against teams with an offensive scoring average of 100.2 points per game which is a comparable number to Miami's offensive scoring average this season.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on the under. You should take the under when the road team has a +3 to +7 point scoring differential and is coming off a game allowing 110 points or more, and they are facing an average team that has a +/- 3 point scoring differential and the total has been set between 180 to 189.5 points. This system has an impressive 24-4 (86%) record in favor of the under.

5* Eastern Conference Game of the Year on Wizards -

Milwaukee is the worst team in the league. They have allowed opponents 102.3 points per game this season, while the offense has averaged a mere 92.8 points per game when playing at home. Washington is a very good team with an explosive offense, and the Wizards have no business being a single-digit favorite. Washington has averaged 115.8 points per game over their last five games and they will have no problem picking up a double-digit win today.

The Bucks come into this matchup with a 7-25 straight up record at home, and a 12-20 ATS record in those games. Washington on the other hand has been a great team to back on the road this season with a 22-8 ATS record. Washington is also the hot team coming into this matchup. The Wizards have won seven of their last eight games, posting a 6-2 record against the spread.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to fade the Bucks. You should play against home underdogs like Milwaukee when they have lost 15 or more of their last 20 games and they have won 25 percent of their games or less on the season, and they are facing a team with a winning record. This system has an 80-38 (68%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

4* False Favorite Game of the Week on Colorado State +

The wrong team is favored in this matchup. Wyoming is a very overrated team. The last time these teams met the Rams picked up a 15 point win. The change in venue may allow the Cowboys to decrease that margin of loss, but it will not be enough for them to win this game.

Colorado State is averaging 73.4 points per game this season. The Cowboys come into this matchup averaging a mere 64.6 points per game. The reason Wyoming was blown out by the Rams in the first meeting of the season is because they are a poor rebounding team. Colorado State pulls in 38 rebounds per game, with 11 of them coming on the offensive glass. The Cowboys on the other hand are averaging 29 rebounds per game with just four coming on the offensive glass.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on Colorado State. You should take a team like the Rams when the line is three points or less and they are an excellent ball handling team that averages less than 12 turnovers per game, and they are coming off five straight games forcing opponents to commit 14 turnovers or less. This system has a 212-158 (57%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

5* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Stanford -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. Utah has been horrible on the road this season posting a 2-7 record. They are facing a very underrated Stanford team that averages 78 points per game at home. The Cardinal are 11-4 in home games, which includes a 10-3 record against the spread.

Stanford also has a very underrated defense. The Cardinal have held opponents to a mere 66.2 points per game at home this season. Stanford is also 8-2 ATS in home games against poor pressure defensive teams that are forcing less than 14 turnovers per game. Utah has forced an average of 12 turnovers per game on the road this season.

The Utes have some artificially inflated shooting statistics thanks to a very soft schedule. That should not slow the Cardinal down since they have a 63-42 ATS record when facing teams that are making 48% or more of their shot attempts. Utah may average 49.6 percent from the field overall this season, but when playing on the road that number dips down to 41.7 percent shooting. The Utes also go from averaging 77.8 points per game to 64.9 points per game on the road.

3* American Athletic Game of the Week on UConn +

This is a lot of points for a game that could easily be won by UConn. The Huskies have one of the best defenses in the country surrendering 62.8 points per game. In the last game against Louisville the Huskies suffered from an uncharacteristically poor shooting performance. They were held to 35 percent shooting from the field, and that is unlikely to take place again today.

UConn is also the hot team coming into this matchup. They have won three straight games, including a victory over then No. 11 ranked Cincinnati. I don't think Louisville will get a big benefit from home court advantage since UConn has dominated on the road with a 10-3 record.

The Huskies are a team that plays incredibly well against good teams. They are 52-31 ATS in road games against teams that are outscoring opponents by eight or more points per game after 15 or more games in the season. Louisville on the other hand has not performed well as a home favorite. The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.

4* Total Annihilator on Pacers/Rockets UNDER

The Indiana Pacers are a very good team defensively. They are trying to secure the top overall seed in the East, and following a two game losing streak I expect the Pacers to come out with a strong defensive performance tonight against the Rockets. Indiana has held opponents to a mere 91.6 points per game this season.

Houston is a much better team defensively than it gets credit for. The Rockets opponents have an offensive scoring average of 101.2 points per game, yet Houston has surrendered just 99 points per game when playing at home. They will catch a break tonight against a Pacers team that averages a mere 97.4 points per game on the road. It is also worth nothing that over their last five games the Pacers scoring average has dipped down to 96 points per game.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on the under. You should take the under in a matchup that features an average three point shooting team making 33 to 36.5 percent of their attempts like the Rockets, against an average three point shooting defense allowing the same percentage like Indiana, in a game involving two teams that are +3 to +5.5 in rebounding margin per game after 42 or more games. This system has a record of 100-57 (64%) in favor of the under.

4* Heavy Hitter on Denver Nuggets -

This matchup has blowout written all over it. The Lakers are playing in a tough spot tonight. They are in the second half of a back-to-back after hosting the Clippers last night, and now they have to play on the road against Denver. In last night's game the Lakers were blown out by 48 points so the team's confidence has to be at a season low.

The Nuggets have an explosive offense. They are averaging 103.6 points per game at home this season. They should have no problem putting up an even bigger number tonight since the Lakers have allowed 108.2 points per game on the road. It is also worth noting that over their last five games the Lakers have surrendered an average of 122 points per game.

You should play against road underdogs like the Lakers when they are revenging a home loss to their opponent, and they are coming off two or more consecutive home losses. The last time these teams met the Nuggets picked up a 22 point win in Los Angeles. This system has a 66-31 (68%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Total Dominator on Blazers/Mavericks OVER

Both of these teams are soft defensively. The Trailblazers are coming into this matchup allowing 105.3 points per game when playing on the road. They are scoring 108 points per game in road games so there is very little doubt about Portland making a big contribution towards the over. In fact, the over has an 18-11 record when Portland is on the road this season.

The Mavericks should also do their part towards sending this game over the total. The team averages 106.9 points per game at home, but against a soft defense like Portland's they should be able to exceed that number. Defensively the Mavericks are giving up 102.6 points per game, but that number will probably be a lot higher tonight against Portland's outstanding offense. The Mavericks have also surrendered 104.8 points per game over their last five games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on the over. You should take the over when the total is 200 points or more and the road team is coming off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, and they are facing an opponent that is coming off a road game where both teams scored 100 points or more. This system has a 44-14 (76%) record in favor of the over.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Oakland +

The last time these teams met Wright State squeaked by with a single point win. The Golden Grizzlies will be playing with a lot more motivation in this matchup, and I like there chances to play another great game against the Raiders. Oakland is coming off a confidence boosting win over Youngstown State, and now they get the Raiders on a neutral court with a chance to keep their postseason dreams alive.

Statistically the Grizzlies matchup well with the Raiders. Wright State is not a strong rebounding team. They average a mere 29 rebounds per game, with only seven of those coming on the offensive glass. That ranks them 344th in the country in rebounds per game. The Raiders are also ranked 270th in points per game with 67.4, while the Grizzlies average 74.9 points per game and rank 78th in the country.

Oakland is 33-15 against the spread when playing on the road or a neutral court against a conference opponent. They are also 17-7 ATS in March games with Greg Kampe as the head coach. Kampe is the third longest-tenured Division 1 head coach in the country. That kind of experience makes Oakland a dangerous team in the postseason. In this matchup the Grizzlies are both more talented and experienced than Wright State.

3* No Doubt Rout on North Dakota -

Southern Utah has been unable to win a game since their first game of the season. They are one of the worst teams in college basketball, and I don't think the Thunderbirds can play a close game against North Dakota and its 85th ranked offense.

Southern Utah ranks 350th in the country in points per game with 58.6. North Dakota on the other hand is averaging 74.3 points per game, and should have no problem exceeding that number against this Thunderbirds defense that has surrendered 75 points per game. North Dakota is 1.5 games back on Weber State in the Big Sky standings, and they have a half game lead over third place Montana. There is still a lot to play for, and that means this will be another blowout loss for Southern Utah.

This matchup fits into a system to play against the Thunderbirds. You should fade teams like Southern Utah when they are revenging a same season loss, and they are off two straight losses against conference rivals. This system has a 172-103 (63%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider on Oklahoma City Thunder -

The Thunder are on fire right now having won three straight games coming into this matchup against the Suns. Phoenix is coming off a tough loss to the Clippers in its last outing, and I expect a similar result tonight against Oklahoma City. Over their last five games the Thunder are averaging 115 points per game, and they should have no problem putting up another huge number against the Suns' soft defense.

The Suns are struggling at the point guard position, and that will make it incredibly difficult to play a close game against a top tier team like the Thunder. Eric Bledsoe has been out since December with a knee injury, and in their last game against the Clippers the Suns lost their backup Leandro Barbosa. Barbosa will miss up to six weeks with a fractured hand. The Suns are now 2-4 in their last six games and allowing more than 110 points per game during that stretch.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Thunder. You should play on road favorites like Oklahoma City when they are coming off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more. This system identifies teams that the oddsmakers have undervalued, and it has resulted in a 56-29 (66%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Atlantic Sun Game of the Year on USC Upstate +

In the Spartans two games against Mercer they lost 60-62 in overtime on the road, and embarrassed the Bears 80-61 at home. Upstate might be the most underrated team in the Atlantic Sun Conference, and their is simply no reason they should be such a large underdog in this matchup. Six of the Spartans seven conference losses came by six-points or less.

USC Upstate is averaging 73.7 points per game. The Spartans have already shown us they can score on Mercer since they put up 80 points the last time these teams met. Mercer on the other hand has put up just 60 and 62 points against the Spartans underrated defense.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Spartans. You should play on road teams like USC Upstate when they are coming off two straight wins by six points or less, and they are facing an opponent that scored 85 points or more in their previous game. This system identifies matchups where the road team has been undervalued, and it has resulted in a 55-26 (68%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

4* Heavy Hitter on Old Dominion -

When these teams met back in January it was Old Dominion picking up a double-digit win on the road. In the final game of the regular season I see no reason why the Monarchs cannot pick up another impressive win over the Pirates, this time on their home court. The Pirates have not fared well on the road this season posting a 7-6 record.

These teams may have similar overall records, but the most telling number about the disparity in talent between them are their conference records. Old Dominion is 8-7 in conference games while the Pirates are 5-10. The Monarchs should have no problem improving on that number from their home court where they have allowed a mere 63.8 points per game this season.

East Carolina is 10-27 ATS when they are revenging a loss as a favorite. The Pirates are also 24-43 ATS when revenging any same season loss. Old Dominion is coming off very poor performance against Charlotte in its last outing, and that has created value on today's line. The Monarchs should dominate this game from start to finish.

4* Mountain West Game of the Week on Air Force +

The Lobos are playing in the perfect situation to look past Air Force as they prepare to take on the Mountain West co-leader in their regular season finale. Air Force is coming into this matchup under the radar with an 11-16 record, and they are in a good spot to play a great game against the unsuspecting Lobos. New Mexico will be on the road against San Diego State to determine the regular season champion of the Mountain West assuming both teams get past tonight's opponent with a win, and with such a big game on deck I think they come up short of covering the spread against the Falcons tonight.

The Falcons are unlikely to pull off an upset, but they are definitely capable of keeping this game within the 18 points they are being spotted. Only three of Air Force's 11 conference losses have come by a margin large enough to cover this line. The Falcons were on the road against San Diego State just a few weeks ago and manged to stick to within a single digit margin, and I expect them to deliver a similar result tonight.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing Air Force. You should play on road underdogs like the Falcons when they have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more points in their last 10 games, and they are facing an opponent that has gone under the total by 24 points or more in their last three games. This system identifies matchups where the oddsmakers have overvalued the home team and it has resulted in a 38-13 (75%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Texas Tech +

The Kansas Jayhawks do not have a lot to play for tonight. They are already the regular season conference champions, and with a lack of motivation I think they will have a lot of trouble covering a double-digit spread against this hungry Red Raiders team. Texas Tech's season has been a disaster, but they have played some great basketball down the stretch. Four of their last five games have been decided by 10 points or less, which includes matchups against a ranked Iowa State team, and a game against the Jayhawks.

Kansas will rest Joel Embiid for this game in preparation for the postseason. When these teams met just over two weeks ago Embiid accounted for 18 of the Jayhawks 64 points. Kansas ended up winning that game by a single point. The lack of motivation showed on the road against Oklahoma State in the Jayhawks' last outing, and I think we can expect a similar performance tonight against Texas Tech.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Red Raiders. You should play on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Texas Tech when they are revenging a loss of three points or less and they are coming off a road loss by 10 points or more. In this situation the oddsmakers have a tendency to undervalue the underdog and it has resulted in a 41-13 (76%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics +

The Warriors are playing in a letdown spot today after winning a close game on the road against Indiana last night. Playing in a back-to-back situation is always tough, but doing so when coming off a big win like Golden State is will prove to be incredibly difficult tonight against this Celtics team that is starting to get hot on offence. Over their last five games Boston has averaged 100 points per game.

Boston has covered the spread in three of their last four games. They are coming into this matchup with plenty of rest having three days off since hosting the Pacers the first of March. These teams met back in January and the Celtics managed to stick to within two points playing at Golden State. This time they have the luxury of playing host, so I like their chances to play another close game with the Warriors.

The Warriors have been a soft team defensively when playing on the road. They are surrendering 99.9 points per game, and that puts them at a serious disadvantage against this well rested Celtics team. Boston has held opponents to 97.3 points per game at home this season, and they should have no problem improving on that number against Golden State tonight.

3* Total Dominator on Bulls/Pistons UNDER

This total is far too high considering the way these teams match up tonight. Detroit may not be known for playing great defense, but they have performed well defensively when facing a division opponent. The Pistons are surrendering a mere 94.4 points per game against the division, and the under looks really attractive when you consider their offensive production also takes a hit down to 98.4 points scored in those games.

Chicago is holding division opponents to 86.5 points per game. The Bulls have one of the best defenses in the league, and I think they should easily keep the Pistons in check tonight. On the offensive end of the court the Bulls are nothing to be worried about. When playing on the road this season Chicago is averaging a mere 91.7 points per game, and against division opponents they are averaging just 90.6 points per game.

You should play the under when one of the teams has beaten the spread by 36 or more points in their last five games (Chicago), and they have won 51 to 60 percent of their games on the season and are facing a team with a losing record. This system is 55-37 (60%) in favor of the under for the last five seasons.