5* NBA Finals Game 5 MONSTER BEST BET on Magic -3
Normally, the series would be heading back to LA for Game 5, but the unique 2-3-2 format of the finals gives the Magic a home game to fight for its playoff life and that is huge. Orlando is a very resilient team and it is not going to lay down in front of its home fans here, especially since this is the last home game of the season. Plus, teams playing with nothing to lose are very dangerous. The Lakers are feeling a little fat and happy right about now, just like they were following their narrow Game 2 victory, and while they may say they want to end it tonight, they aren't going to lose any sleep over a loss as they feel they can win it in front of their home fans in Game 6. The Lakers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win and 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 NBA Finals games. Orlando is 33-12 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 102.3 to 94.1. Orlando is also 21-8 ATS revenging a home loss vs. an opponent over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Magic tonight.

5* NBA Finals Gm 4 *MONSTER BEST BET* (ABC) on Lakers +2.5
The Magic shot an NBA Finals record 63% from the floor in Game 3 and still did not cover the spread. If Kobe was his normal self, not shooting 5 of 10 from the free throw line and living up to his title as the games best closer, the Lakers would have won Game 3 despite Orlando's shooting performance. Here are two things I know: the Magic won't shoot as well in Game 4 and Kobe will be better. The Lakers are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. The Lakers are 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season and the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. I like LA outright in Game 4 so I'll gladly take the insurance points.

5* 2009 NBA Finals Game of the Year on LA Lakers +4
I like the Lakers to deliver the knockout blow with an outright win tonight so I'll definitely take them getting 4 insurance points. They escaped with a win in Game 2 while not playing their best and that does tons for their confidence while it doesn't do anything for Orlando's. The Lakers are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 games as a road underdog. The Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. With the books knowing the public would shift to the Magic tonight, they have given the Lakers plenty of breathing room here with these points. Expect the Lakers to come out on top in a close one.

5* 2009 NBA Finals Vegas Line Mistake on Lakers -6.5
Odds makers have only raised this line a half point from what we saw in Game 1 when the Lakers crushed the Magic by 25 points and I expect them to pay for their mistake. While I don't expect the Magic to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 1, I still have the Lakers winning by double digits. The Magic live and die from the three-point line and they were not that bad from three in Game 1 (8 of 23) and were still dominated. Even if they make over their season average of 10, which is going to be difficult with as well as the Lakers are defending dating back to Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals, they still have a lot of points to make up. Kobe Bryant is as focused and as hungry as I've seen him. He knows that putting the young and inexperienced Magic in a 0-2 hole all but closes the door on this series. Bet the Lakers!

5* 2009 NBA Finals Series Opener on Lakers -6
This is where experience plays a big role. The Lakers played in the Finals a season ago and came up short. They know what to expect on the big stage and this time around they have the luxury of playing Game 1 at home. The fact that they lost in the Finals last year is also key as you won't see a team that is fat and happy. The Magic haven't been here before and I'm confident you will see their nerves in Game 1 tonight. LA also has a couple individuals that really want this title and they know how important a Game 1 win is in achieving it. Phil Jackson has a chance to earn his 10th NBA title and Kobe Bryant wants his first without Shaq and his 4th overall. The Lakers match up much better with the Magic than the Cavs did and they have a lot more weapons. Take advantage of a soft line in Game 1.

5* Game 6 BEST BET (TNT) on Magic -2
The Magic have been the better team in this series and there's no way they are going to let this thing go back to Cleveland for a Game 7. The Cavaliers are 2-14 ATS in the last 16 meetings overall and 0-5 SU and ATS in the last 5 meetings in Orlando. Cleveland is just 3-12 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) this season while Orlando is 12-3 ATS vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 9+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Orlando is an incredible 10-1 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 107.9 to 88.2 in these spots. Orlando is also 15-3 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 107.2 to 99.6. I'll back the Magic at home to close out the series tonight.

4* Major ESPN PRIME TIME SMASH on Lakers +5.5
I'll back the best road team in the NBA tonight catching 5.5 points as it tries to deliver the knockout punch to Denver. LA's role players are starting to step up and I expect another big game from Lamar Odom as his performance last game figures to really boost his confidence. The Lakers are always dangerous when catching points as they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, and 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 games as a road underdog. Plus, the Lakers are 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings with the Nuggets. The Lakers want to end this series tonight so they can catch a little extra rest before the Finals. Take the points.

5* Game 5 BEST BET (TNT) on Cavs -7
The Cavaliers will play their best game of the series tonight on their home floor where they are 44-3 this season. Cleveland will be very dangerous tonight because it will be fighting to stay alive in the postseason and also because it will be playing with nothing to lose. Now the pressure is on Orlando to close this thing out. Bottom line, Cleveland wins Game 4 on the road rather easily if the Magic don't go off for 17 three pointers and they won't make near that many on the road tonight. The Cavaliers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU loss, 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 playoff games as a favorite, and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Also, Cleveland is 13-2 ATS off a road loss this season, 14-4 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season, and 17-6 ATS after a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The public is all over the Magic tonight so the books are looking to cash in big with a Cleveland cover. We'll go against the grain for another big winner.

5* NBA Playoffs Revenge GOTM on LA Lakers -5.5
After a 19-point Game 4 loss, you can expect the Lakers to bounce back strong on their home floor tonight. In fact, the Lakers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. LA is 25-3 SU in its last 28 home games with the Nuggets and the Nuggets are only 3-11 ATS in the last 14 games in Los Angeles. Plus, the Nuggets are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Denver is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game, losing by an average score of 102.8 to 115.1 in these spots. And lastly, the Lakers are 16-5 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996. I'll lay the number here.

5* NBA Eastern Conf Finals GOTY on Cavs pk
This is a do-or-die game for the Cavs when you consider the bleak history of coming back in a series after falling Behind 1-3, and I expect the Cavs to rise to the occasion. The Cavaliers are 54-26-1 ATS in their last 81 games following a SU loss and 14-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. But here's the clincher: Cleveland is 13-1 ATS off a road loss this season, winning by an average score of 102.0 to 88.1 in these games. I'll back the league MVP and the Cavs in this must-win spot.

3* ESPN Prime Time SMASH on Nuggets -4.5
I'll back the Nuggets at home in what is basically a do-or-die game. The Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss while the Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. Denver is 12-1 ATS in these playoffs and after its first home loss of the postseason, the public is backing the Lakers. The books are looking to make money with a Nuggets win and cover and that's where I'll side here.

3* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" BLOWOUT on Lakers/Nuggets OVER 208.5
3 straight unders in this series have brought the total down 5 points since Game 1 and now the books will pay for making such a mistake. We saw these teams score 208 and 209 points respectively in Games 1 and 2 and after totaling only 200 in a poor shooting Game 3, I expect to see a shootout. Denver is averaging 108.2 ppg at home this season and the Lakers are averaging 104.6 ppg on the road. Denver is 36-9 OVER when both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. The average score in these games was DENVER 112.7, OPPONENT 107.8. And the Lakers are 37-11 OVER when both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. The average score was LA LAKERS 113.2, OPPONENT 107.6. Bet the Over.

5* Game 3 Monster BEST BET (TNT) on Cavs +1.5
LeBron's game winner in Game 2 saved the Cavs. Now I expect them to play with a greater sense of urgency to avoid falling behind in this series again. The Cavs have held huge leads in both Games 1 and 2 and have let the Magic claw their way back. I expect the Cavs to show a much greater killer instinct from here on out. The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Cavaliers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win and 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or less points. The Magic have struggled at home in the small chalk at 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. With the momentum gained in Game 2, I expect the Cavs to steal its home court back tonight.

5* 2009 NBA Playoffs Game of the Year (ABC) on Lakers +4
First off, the Lakers are one of the finest road teams in the NBA at 31-15 this season. Secondly, each time LA has lost in these playoffs, it has responded with a convincing double digit win. In fact, the Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Thirdly, anytime you can get LA catching points, it is worth strong consideration, especially in a bounce back spot. The Lakers are 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 games as an underdog and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 4.5 or less points. Plus, LA is 17-6 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. There's no question the books have overvalued the Nuggets here as the public is jumping on their bandwagon. The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less. The Lakers are 41-14 SU against Denver since 1996 and 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Pound LA tonight as they win this one outright!

3* NBA on TNT Prime Time SMASH on Magic +9
You can expect a passionate effort from Cleveland tonight, but the fact of the matter is that the Cavs do not match up well with Orlando's front line. Expect a dog fight which favors grabbing the points. The Magic are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Cleveland and 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings overall. The Magic are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as a road underdog and the underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. I think Orlando learns from the way it fell flat in Game 2 of its previous series. Take the points!

5* NBA Eastern Conference Finals TOTY (TNT) on Magic/Cavs UNDER 188.5
The public is all over the over here and that is exactly where the sportsbooks want it. We saw a total score of 213 points in Game 1, and odds makers only raised the total 4.5 points? Exactly. Adjustments are going to be made by both teams on the defensive end, and you can expect to see the Cavs team which is only allowing 87.7 ppg at home tonight. Orlando is 19-6 UNDER after a close win by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons, 10-1 UNDER after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons, and Cleveland is 14-2 UNDER after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread this season. The Under is 11-4 in Magic last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 8-1 in Cavaliers last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. 7 of 11 games over the last 3 seasons have gone Under in this matchup. Bet the Under!

4* Major ESPN Prime Time SMASH on Nuggets +5.5
The Nuggets led most of the way in Game 1, despite receiving nothing from their bench and shooting poorly from the foul line. They did not get the win, but they covered from start to finish, never trailing by more than 4 points. The Nuggets are not going to go away after a defeat. In fact, they'll come back even stronger tonight to try to steal away home court before the series shifts to Denver. The Nuggets have not lost by more than 2 points in the postseason and according to closing lines, they are a perfect 11-0 ATS in the playoffs. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. The Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win. Expect Denver to play with a greater sense of urgency in Game 2, being down a game in this series, and don't be surprised if they come away with an outright win.

5* Game 1 MONSTER BEST BET on Magic +9
The Cavs have won each of their 8 playoff games by 10 or more points so odds makers are begging for action on Cleveland with this line, but we won't bite. The Magic match up very well with the Cavs as Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, and Hedo Turkoglu all pose matchup problems. This is why Orlando has had Cleveland's number. The Magic won the season series 2-1 and have won 4 of the last 5 and 8 of the last 11 overall. And when they haven't won, they have been right there to cover. The Magic are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland and 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Orlando is 15-6 ATS as an underdog this season and the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. It's also important to note that the Cavaliers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning pct. above .600. The Magic are coming off a very intense series while the Cavs have had a cake walk to this point. I expect the Magic to be ready to go here as it takes Cleveland some time to match intensity and to lose its rust after a long layoff. Bet the Magic.

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Line Mistake of the Year on LA Lakers -6.5

This line is soft. The Lakers are not going to be caught sleeping tonight after what happened in Game 1 of their last series, and they are not going to be showing any rust as they haven't had a long layoff coming into this series. Plan on LA making a statement tonight. Denver has looked great in these playoffs, but that's because it has played the majority of its games at home. Outside of a 58-point win at New Orleans, the Nuggets have looked like an ordinary team away from home in the playoffs. They are 2-2 on the road in the postseason and 6-11 in their last 17 road games overall. LA has had Denver's number. Over the last 3 seasons, LA is 11-4 SU and ATS in all meetings. The Lakers are 24-2 SU and 18-6 ATS at home against Denver since 1996 and 7-1 SU and ATS at home against the Nuggets the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets are only 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings overall and 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Los Angeles. LA is winning its games by an average of 10.6 points at home and has won each of its home games against Denver by 14 points this season. Denver is only 5-17 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons, losing to these teams by an average score of 96.7 to 107.1. Cash in with the Lakers!

4* Major NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Magic/Celtics OVER 186
Following 3 straight unders, which included a very low scoring Game 6, odds makers have lowered this line way too much, and we'll take full advantage. Boston is 17-6 OVER in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season, 10-2 OVER in home games revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent this season, and 13-4 OVER when playing with 2 days rest this season. All 3 of these situations have seen Boston and its opponent combine for over 200 points on average. On the other side, Orlando is 13-3 OVER after a combined score of 175 points or less this season and 21-8 OVER after allowing 85 points or less over the last 2 seasons. I'll bet the Over tonight.

5* NBA Playoffs Game 7 BEST BET on Lakers -12.5
After a double digit loss in Houston in Game 4, the Lakers returned home and gave the Rockets a 40-point beat down and I anticipate a similar course of events today. I don't expect this one to be that bad, but I do expect the Lakers to dominate from start to finish. Plays on home teams off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest are 54-15 ATS the last 5 seasons and the Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss period. Also, Houston is 2-10 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season and 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games in LA. Houston did steal Game 1 in LA, but the Lakers have wins of 29, 12, 13, and 40 points at home against Houston this season. That's a 23.5-point average margin of victory. I'll back the Lakers at home in this bounce back spot.

5* NBA Playoffs Blowout of the Year on Magic -6.5
I'll back the Magic at home in this do-or-die Game 6. Orlando came out with great intensity in Game 5, but ultimately couldn't get the job done down the stretch. I'm expecting even more intensity tonight with its playoff life on the line and playing in front of its home crowd. Dwight Howard has called out his coach and now I expect him to back up his words with his play tonight. I also feel great about the fact that the public is putting its money on Boston here and odds makers have moved the line the other way. This is a clear sign that the Magic are the team the books feel will cover this number. Orlando is 12-4 ATS off a road loss this season, winning by an average score of 102.6 to 89.3 in these games. The Magic are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and 49-21-1 ATS in their last 71 games following a SU loss. Expect the Magic to bounce back big tonight!

3* NBA on TNT Prime Time SMASH on Nuggets -8.5
I know the Mavs showed a lot of heart to win Game 4 at home to stay alive, but the Nuggets blew a double digit lead in that game. They won both Games 1 and 2 at home by 14 and 12 points respectively and I expect the Nuggets to take care of business by double digits to close this series out in front of its home fans tonight. Expect another huge game from Melo as the only Mavs player with half a shot at guarding him, Josh Howard, is hobbled with two bad wheels. Plus, the awesome Denver bench likely gets The Bird Man back tonight. The Nuggets feel like they really squandered an opportunity to get the job done in Game 4 and they won't squander another one tonight. Here's the clincher: Denver is 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points this season, winning these games by an average of 15.1 points. Take the Nuggets!

5* Eastern Conference Playoffs GOTY on Celtics -2
With Big Baby's 21-foot buzzer beater the Boston Celtics regained home court and take a huge amount of momentum back home with them for tonight's matchup. I can't see the Celtics giving their home court away tonight as they now know they are in position to win this series. The Boston crowd will be electric and I can't see Ray Allen's struggles continuing any further. Orlando is 8-26 ATS off a close home loss by 3 points or less since 1996 while Boston is 16-4 ATS after a win by 6 points or less this season. Plus, the Magic are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 meetings in the Garden. I'll bet Boston at home laying a small number tonight.

5* NBA Playoffs Do-or-Die GOTY (TNT) on Mavs -1.5
A blown call by the officials has put the Mavs in an 0-3 hole, but I don't see the Mavs pouting about it tonight in front of their home crowd. Instead, they will have way more motivation to win than most teams facing an 0-3 deficit. I don't expect Denver to be going for the jugular tonight either after such an emotionally and physically draining Game 3, especially when they can close this thing out back at home in Game 5. So expect a letdown from the Nugs here. Dallas has won 20 of the last 26 at home in this matchup and we've got three more big time systems backing the Mavs here: Plays On - Favorites (DALLAS) - revenging 4 or more losses vs opponent in last 2 years, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 29-9 ATS since 1996, Plays On - Home favorites (DALLAS) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 71-33 ATS since 1996, and Plays On - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 44-15 ATS since 1996. The Nuggets are the better team and will win this series, but a proud Dallas team survives at home tonight.

3* Sunday NBA Playoffs TOP SIDE on Lakers -5.5
With Yao Ming out, the Rockets are without their No. 1 offensive option and their best rebounder. This forces the Rockets to be a more perimeter oriented team and that will not play to their favor here. Expect LA to smell blood this afternoon so they can have the opportunity to close out this series at home in Game 5. Houston is just 2-14 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 100 or more points this season. The Lakers are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Houston. Lay the number.

5* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Lakers/Rockets OVER 194
Without Yao Ming in the lineup, I expect the pace of Game 4 to really pick up, which makes this a strong Overs opportunity. The Over is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 5-2 in Rockets last 7 playoff games as an underdog. The Over is 6-1 in Lakers last 7 games following a ATS win, 5-1 in Lakers last 6 Conference Semifinals games, and 6-2 in Lakers last 8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Over gets the call today.

5* Saturday NBA Playoffs BOMB on Mavs -4
While Denver has played exceptionally well in these playoffs, it has done the majority of its damage at home. The Mavericks are quite the home squad as well, going 34-9 this season. Dallas has won 20 of its last 25 home games against the Nuggets. Dating back to the regular season, the Mavs have won 8 in a row, 17 of their last 18, and 22 of their last 24 at home. They are an extraordinary home team and I expect them to leave it all out on the floor knowing that 0-3 is as good as done. What cannot be overshadowed when looking at the Nuggets is that they are just 1-3 their L4 and 5-10 their L15 road games. The Nuggets are only 2-7 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as an underdog. Plays on favorites (DALLAS) revenging 4 or more losses vs opponent in last 2 years, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 29-8 ATS since 1996 and plays on home favorites (DALLAS) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), and 71-32 ATS since 1996. Lay the points with the Mavs.

5* NBA Western Conference Playoffs GOTY on Lakers pk
I don't see the Lakers trailing in this series again. Game 1 was a wake up call and LA showed in Game 2 that it would not be out-muscled by the Rockets with its physical play. The Lakers won both meetings at Houston during the regular season, and I expect them to take care of business tonight. The Lakers will be without Fisher, but that gives the Rockets no real advantage as Jordan Farmar is very capable of stepping in. The LA Lakers are 8-0 ATS in road games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with LA winning these game by an average score of 111.9 to 96.4. It's hard to get quality shots without good ball movement stemming from penetration, and the Rockets don't get good penetration nearly enough. Houston is only 2-13 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 100 or more points this season. Lastly, plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) - an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after a win by 10 points or more, are 32-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. This super system makes my last point. The Lakers just have too much fire power to contend with. Take LA!

3* ESPN Prime Time SMASH on Magic -4
No Rafer Alston for the Magic tonight, but I expect them to get the job done anyway. They were able to win in Philly without Dwight Howard, who is a much bigger piece of the puzzle, in their first round series so they shouldn't have a problem at home without Alston. After getting worked in Game 2, you can expect Orlando to play with a much bigger sense of urgency tonight. Orlando has won 20 of its last 26 at home against Boston and 5 of its last 6 at home against Boston the last 3 seasons. It's important to note that the Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 14-3 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Boston defense has not been nearly as good in these playoffs without Garnett, especially on the road. Lay the points.

5* 2009 NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Hawks/Cavs OVER 177.5
The Hawks will go hard tonight to try to steal a game on the road, pushing this one over the total in the process. I don't really see the Hawks stopping the Cavs defensively. Atlanta is allowing 99.6 ppg on the road this season and Cleveland is scoring 102.1 ppg at home. But I do see the Hawks scoring way more than they did in Game 1 as Joe Johnson comes to life tonight. During the regular season, the Hawks scored 96 points in each game at Cleveland so this team is capable of scoring the basketball against the Cavs. 18 of 25 games in this series played at Cleveland have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996, but here's the clincher: Plays Over on any team in the second round of the playoffs, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 32-6 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Over tonight!

5* Game 2 BEST BET (TNT) on Lakers -9.5
The Lakers cannot afford to fall behind 0-2 in this series so I expect a very motivated effort tonight on their home floor. Expect the Lakers to do a better job of getting out in transition where they can exploit Yao Ming's foot speed and they take advantage of their superior athletes. Plays on all home teams off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, are 44-16 ATS the last 5 seasons so right away we see the profitability of this bounce back situation. Plus, the Lakers are 17-5 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by 12.9 points on average. The Rockets played a perfect Game 1, but I expect Coach Jackson and the Lakers to make the necessary adjustments to send a message to the Rockets tonight. On top of that, the Lakers here the experts talking about the Nuggets being the team to beat in the West right now, and I expect that will light a fire under their butts as well. I'll lay the number.

3* Game 2 SMASH on Nuggets -6.5
Denver is playing the best ball in the Western Conference right now and I don't see the Mavs slowing them down tonight. The only question about this Denver team in the past was its defense and the Nuggets are yet to allow an opponent over 95 points in the postseason. Denver is 9-1 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points this season, winning these games by an average score of 112.6 to 97.3. The Nuggets have now won 6 straight over Dallas and it is apparent that the Mavs don't match up very well against them. The Mavericks are 1-8 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. the NBA Southwest. Bet Denver.

5* Game 1 BEST BET on Cavs -11.5
Thanks to the Lakers not showing up last night, the Cavs will be ready here in Game 1 as they are not about to let the Hawks take them by storm. Atlanta has struggled on the road all season while the Cavs are 41-2 at home with a 14.4 point margin of victory. We saw Atlanta lose 3 games by double digit margins in its first round series against a Heat team that is far less explosive on offense and far inferior on defense than the Cavs. Cleveland is 7-0 ATS in home games off a road win by 10 points or more this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 109.0 to 85.7, 7-0 ATS after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 105.4 to 87.1, and 16-1 ATS after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half this season, winning by an average score of 103.1 to 86.7 in these spots. The Hawks are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater. Lay the points.

5* NBA Playoffs Second Rd GOTY (TNT) on Lakers -8
Expect the Lakers to send a message to Houston in Game 1. LA is 4-0 against Houston this season, winning in its 2 home games by 29 and 12 points respectively. The Lakers beat the Jazz by double digits in 4 of the five games in their first round series, including all 3 games at home, and the Jazz is a team which posed more problems for LA because of its athleticism. The Blazers had no answer for Yao Ming in round one, but the Lakers have two mobile scoring threats on the block in Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol that will give the big man trouble on both ends of the floor. The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Here's the clincher: plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more, playing with 3 or more days rest, are 73-36 ATS since 1996. Pound the Lakers.

5* Mavs/Nugs Game 1 BEST BET on Nuggets -5.5
I'll back the Nuggets in Game 1 as Dallas won't look quite as good as it did in round 1 when it faces a team with a whole lot more offensive weapons. Dallas has struggled on the road all season long and I'm not reading too much into it's first round road wins against a battered Spurs team. The Nuggets are 36-8 at home this season and 4-1 SU and ATS at home versus the Nuggets over the last 3 seasons. In fact, the Mavericks are just 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Nuggets are an incredible 24-5-1 ATS in their last 30 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Lastly, plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging 4 or more losses vs. an opponent in last 2 years, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 22-4 ATS since 1996. All Nuggets in Game 1.

3* Heat/Hawks NBA Playoffs Early Annihilator on Hawks -5
After getting hit in the mouth in Game 6, I expect the Hawks to bounce back strong at home today to take this series and cover the number in the process. I expect the Hawks to have no trouble controlling the tempo on its home floor and this is a young team which really benefits from the energy of its home crowd. Atlanta is 13-4 ATS revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more this season and 15-5 ATS revenging a loss where it scored less than 85 points over the last 2 seasons. The Hawks are also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite. Lay the points!

4* Major 42-0 ATS Game 7 MONSTER BEST BET (TNT) on Bulls +6.5
With as tight as this series has been, I have to take the points in Game 7. 5 of the 6 games in this series have been decided by 3 points or less, and I give the edge to the younger Bulls in this one as they will be the fresher team on the floor after playing that Triple OT thriller on Thursday night. For Ray Allen to go off like he did in Game 6 and for the Celtics to still lose that game says something about this Bulls team. All the pressure is on Boston tonight playing at home, who wasn't supposed to have this much trouble in round one. Boston is 0-9 ATS in home games revenging a loss where its opponent scored 100 or more points this season and 0-7 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 110 or more points this season. The Underdog is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the Road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog. Lastly, the Celtics are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 while the Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Take the points!

3* ESPN Prime Time SMASH on Heat -5
After getting hit in the mouth in back-to-back games with double digit losses, expect the Heat to come storming back at home in Game 6. Miami is 23-4 in its last 27 home games against the Hawks so the Heat will not be lacking any confidence tonight. Here's the clincher though: Miami is 8-1 ATS after a blowout loss by 15 points or more this season, winning by an average score of 101.0 to 92.3 in these spots. The Heat are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Hawks are only 4-13 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Miami. Dwayne Wade will be the best player on the floor tonight and he will lead the Heat to a Game 6 win and cover.

3* NBA on TNT Prime Time Total on Blazers/Rockets UNDER 179.5
The public is all over the over here, but it is going to get them burnt. The last 3 games in this series have all gone under with point totals of 169, 177, and 165. Both teams play slow-down defensive minded basketball and the defensive intensity will be at it's highest tonight with Portland fighting to stay alive and Houston looking to close out the Blazers. Portland is 9-1 UNDER in road games in April games over the last 2 seasons and Houston is 10-1 UNDER in home games in April games over the last 2 seasons. Plays Under on all teams where the total is 179.5 or less (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 53-21 since 1996.

3* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Celtics/Bulls UNDER 196
Without overtime, we would have seen 4 of 5 games in this series play to the under. The odds makers are facing us with the smallest total of this series and that means they are begging for action on the over, but we won't bite. As this series has gone one, we have seen far less fast breaking and far more defense being played. With Chicago's playoff life on the line, and with Boston looking to close this thing out, I expect a defensive struggle resulting in the under. Boston is 8-1 UNDER in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs this season, 15-2 UNDER in road games off a home win this season, and 22-6 UNDER in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Chicago is 20-6 UNDER in home games versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots since 1996. Lastly, plays UNDER on All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in April games are 75-30 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Under!

4* Major NBA Playoffs BEST BET on Hornets +11
Odds makers and the betting public have overreacted to Denver's 58-point win in Game 4. Denver was just a 6.5-point home favorite in the first two games of this series and we now see the number set 4.5 points higher. Denver head coach George Karl said that his team played a perfect game last time out and they had the motivation to do so following a Game 3 loss. New Orleans has extreme motivation to bounce back tonight after being brutally embarrassed and to stay alive in the postseason. An interesting thing to note is that New Orleans' 58-point loss tied the 1957 St. Louis Hawks for the worst loss in NBA Playoff history. The thing to consider is that the Hawks bounced back and won the next game. The Hornets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game. Plays against favorites of 10 or more points after allowing 80 points or less against an opponent after allowing 110 points or more are 40-13 ATS since 1996. Take the points.

5* NBA Playoffs 1st Rd Total of the Year on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 189.5
We have seen 3 of 4 games go over in this series, but 2 of those games made it over by just 1 point. It's going to take an exceptional defensive effort for the Spurs to stay alive tonight, and I have no doubt that you'll see it from this well rested team. San Antonio is 15-4 UNDER in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons - average score totaling 180.8 points. Popovich is 21-9 UNDER when trailing in a playoff series as the coach of San Antonio - average score totaling 182.4 points in these games. And plays under on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in April games are 71-28 the last 5 seasons. Lastly, the UNDER is 12-4 in the Mavericks last 16 games as an underdog. With Dallas fighting to put the Spurs away and the Spurs fighting to stay alive, I expect a very high intensity defensive battle. Bet the Under.

4* Major 14-0 ATS NBA Playoffs Perfect Play on Nuggets +2.5
Denver is the much better team in this series. It has more offensive weapons and a much deeper bench. The Nuggets did not play well at all in Game 3 and they only lost by 2 points. Look for Denver to bounce back tonight to steal one on the road. Denver is 11-1 ATS when playing against a team with a Win Pct. of 51% to 60% in 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 110.0 to 96.5. New Orleans is 4-13 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season, losing by an average score of 96.1 to 101.2 in these spots. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series. The Hornets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. the NBA Northwest. Bet the Nuggets.

5* NBA Playoffs Underdog of the Year on Hawks +5
After cruising to a 90-64 victory in Game 1, the Hawks have suffered back-to-back double digit defeats. I believe strongly that the Hawks are the better team in this series and they will bounce back strong tonight to regain home court. Atlanta is 12-4 ATS revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more this season. Miami is 3-13 ATS in home games after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 3 seasons. There's no way Miami can continue to shoot at such a high percentage from beyond the arc. When the shots don't fall as easily tonight, Atlanta's athleticism will take over this game. Bet the Hawks!

4* Major on Bulls -3
After being brutally embarrassed at home in Game 3, expect the Bulls to have their revenge and even this series today. The Celtics are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points while the Bulls are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU loss and 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Also, Chicago is 14-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season and lastly, plays on home teams off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest are 54-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. Bet the Bulls!

5* Saturday NBA Playoffs BEST BET on Spurs +4.5
You can count on the Spurs bouncing back strong in Game 4 after their horrible Game 3 performance. San Antonio is 8-1 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs. an opponent this season, winning these games by an average score of 97.7 to 93.8. Plays on any team (SAN ANTONIO) after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half after a combined score of 160 points or less are 25-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Spurs starters were shut down by Popovich in the third quarter of last game so they'll be fresh and hungry tonight. Plus, this is a huge rivalry and San Antonio won't take too kindly to that kind of beatdown. Got to grab the Spurs and the points here.

4* Major Saturday NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Nuggets/Hornets UNDER 198
The Hornets would like to run and gun a little more but they know they can't do so and be competitive with the Nuggets. I expect them to take the air out of the ball at home today and really up their level of play on defense after getting hit in the mouth in the first two games of the series. New Orleans is a much better home team, especially on defense where it holds its opponents to only 91.7 ppg. Denver is 8-1 UNDER in road games after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season. New Orleans is 8-1 UNDER in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season and 18-4 UNDER revenging a road loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons with the average total score being 182.8 in this spot. Bet the Under.

4* NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Blazers/Rockets UNDER 184.5
After watching each of the first two games in this series go over, I love the Under tonight. The Rockets are only allowing 91 ppg at home this season and they have held each of their last 3 home opponents to 88, 83, and 66 points respectively. The Rockets have been able to control the tempo at home in this matchup and the result has played to the under in 15 of the last 24 home meetings against the Blazers. First off, Houston is 14-4 UNDER in home games after one or more consecutive overs this season and 12-2 UNDER in a home game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points over the last 2 seasons. Secondly, Portland is 17-5 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons. Lastly, we'll plays on the Under on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points off a home no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 29-9 the last 5 seasons. This one has Under written all over it.

3* NBA Playoffs REVENGER on Orlando Magic -3.5
After losing home court, the Magic know they need to steal a game back to win this series. They have been one of the strongest road teams in the NBA over the last two seasons and I like them to get the job done tonight. Orlando is 27-14 ATS in road games this season and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this matchup. One of the reasons the Magic are so good on the road is because of how well they shoot the 3 pointer. This advantage becomes striking when they face a team that does not shoot the 3 well. In fact, Orlando is 8-0 ATS in road games versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making <=33% of their attempts this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 110.8 to 97.5. Philly is only 9-22 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons, losing to these teams by an average score of 89.5 to 98.2. The Magic don't want to trail in this series and I don't see them blowing any more big leads. Bet the Magic.

5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round GOTY on Lakers -1.5
I know the Jazz came back and won both of their home games after falling behind 0-2 in last year's playoff series with the Lakers, but this Lakers team, with Andrew Bynum, is better and this Jazz team is not playing as well as it did a season ago. The Lakers don't want to mess around and give the Jazz any inkling of hope or confidence. They want to put them in an 0-3 hole tonight so that this one is all but over. Utah has lost 9 of its last 11 games while the Lakers have won 9 of their last 10 so it's easy to see which team is playing better ball right now. The Lakers are the best road team in the NBA and Utah is not playing good enough defense right now to beat them. In fact, LA is 15-3 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 112.8 to 102.1. Utah is 4-12 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season, losing these games by 4 points on average. Lastly, plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after 3 or more consecutive losses, in April games are 30-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. Utah hangs around for a while, but in the end it's a win and cover for the Lakers.

3* SMASH on Bulls -2
Boston is without Kevin Garnett and Leon Powe and that deals a big blow to the front line. Rajon Rondo is also banged up a little bit with an ankle injury, which limited his effectiveness at times in the second half of Game 2. Boston does not look like the world champs right now and I expect the Bulls to take Game 3 at home tonight. The Bulls are 28-13 at home this season and even more impressive is the fact that they've won 14 of their last 16 home games. The Bulls are 14-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season this season and plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110 or more points but did not cover the number as a favorite are 41-16 ATS since 1996. Bet the Bulls at home tonight.

3* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Celtics/Bulls OVER 200.5
Each of the first two games of this series have conquered this number and I expect the pace to stay fast and furious with the series shifting to Chicago. Kevin Garnett and Leon Powe are a big part of Boston's defense and without these guys in the lineup, the Celtics have struggled on that end of the floor. We have seen the over in each of the last 4 matchups in this series with each team scoring at least 103 points in those games. Think about this; Boston is 38-1 OVER in road games where both teams score 98 or more points in a game over the last 3 seasons. The average total score in these games is 217.5 points. Also, Chicago is 16-4 OVER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. The average total score in these games is 211.3. Bet the Over tonight.

5* NBA Playoffs Underdog Shocker on Hornets +6
The Hornets are a much better team than they showed in Game 1 and I expect them to bounce back strong tonight. The blowout loss had more to do with the Hornets playing badly than the Nuggets playing well. Chris Paul is one of the best players on the planet and I expect a huge game out of him in this revenge spot. Here's the facts: New Orleans is a perfect 8-0 ATS off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 106.3 to 96.3. The Hornets are also 16-4 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 98.5 to 96.9. Take the points!

3* NBA Playoffs System SMASH on Heat +5.5
It's bounce back time after an absolutely dreadful Game 1 performance. Expect Dwayne Wade to come out hitting on all cylinders after a very mediocre performance by his standards. Here's the facts: Plays on any team after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 160 points or less are 24-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Miami is also 10-1 ATS in road games after a blowout loss by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Cash in with the Heat.

4* Major NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Rockets/Blazers OVER 183.5
We saw Game 1 go over without much of a contribution from the home team. I like this one to go over as well as Portland plays much better offensively in Game 2. Here's the key: Portland is a perfect 7-0 OVER as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points this season with the average score totaling 206.7 points in these games. Portland is 15-5 OVER period when playing against a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of the season this season with the average score in these games totaling 198.3 points. Lastly, Portland is 15-6 OVER when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. an opponent this season with the average score totaling 199.3 in these games. Bet the Over!

4* Major NBA Playoffs Line Mistake on Pistons +11.5
The Pistons are a veteran team full of pride. They were hit in the mouth in game 1 and I don't expect them to go down so easily tonight. The public is all over the Cavs here which is right where the odds makers want them. We'll go against the grain to pick up the easy cover. Right off the bat, history is in our favor as plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points with a losing record revenging a road loss are 88-48 ATS the last 5 seasons. Cleveland is 0-9 ATS after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games since 1996 and is 13-3 ATS in a road game where the total is between 170 and 179.5 points over the last 2 seasons. In other words, when the odds makers are expecting a low scoring, defensive game, the Pistons are covering the number more times than not. After allowing the Cavs to break the century mark for the first time in 14 playoff games against them, expect the Pistons to really tighten the screws defensively to keep this one close. Take the points.

5* Monday Night NBA Playoffs BEST BET on Mavs +6
The Mavs won Game 1 outright by 8 points as a 4-point underdog, and it would have been even worse if the Spurs hadn't shot out of their mind from three. It doesn't make sense that the Mavs are now an even larger underdog in my opinion as the books have overvalued the Spurs' ability to bounce back. The Mavs are extremely confident and they are the better team with Manu Ginobli unable to go for San Antonio. San Antonio is 2-10 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs. an opponent this season, losing by an average score of 97.8 to 98.7 points in these games. The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 playoff games as an underdog period. The Spurs are now 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Mavericks are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings in San Antonio. Pound the Mavs!

3* Game 2 SMASH on Celtics -8
The Bulls won game 1, but Ray Allen didn't play well for Boston and Derrick Rose had a career day for the Bulls. I don't expect Ray Allen to struggle again tonight and I certainly don't expect Rose to get to the basket at will tonight either. With all this talk floating around about how the C's are finished without Garnett, expect the defending champs to play with plenty of pride tonight, shutting down Rose and the Bulls to even this series with a double digit win. Plays on home favorites; a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a loss by 6 points or less are 28-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. Chicago is 7-21 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. Saturday's loss marked the second straight time the Bulls have beat the Celtics and Boston is 17-6 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average of 12.2 points. Lay the points.

4* Major NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Heat/Hawks UNDER 186
We've seen the Heat and the Hawks play to the Under in all 4 meetings this season, with the highest total score being just 174 points. Atlanta's defense has been exceptional at home this season and I expect to see that continue in the playoffs. In fact, Atlanta is 10-2 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season and 11-1 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season. The Under is 5-0 in the Heat's last 5 vs. a team with a winning SU record and 4-0 in the Hawks last 4 vs. a team with a winning SU record. Bet the Under.

3* NBA Playoffs Top Side on Lakers -11.5
The Lakers have a pair of 13-point wins over the Jazz at home this season. Their latest came just 5 days ago when they had nothing else to play for but to send a message to Utah. LA has too many weapons for a Jazz team that has been awful on the road against elite competition this season. Utah is 0-7 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season, losing by an average score of 101.6 to 116.1 in these spots. We've also seen how dangerous a rested Lakers team can be as they are 16-4 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 111.2 to 98.1. Lay the number.

5* NBA Playoffs Western Conference 1st Round GOTY on Blazers -4
I'll take the Blazers in game 1 at home where they are 34-7 this season. Portland enters the playoffs red hot having won 6 in a row and 10 of its last 11. The Rockets enter the postseason with some disappointment as they lost their final regular season game and home court in their first round with it. The Blazers pick up a revenge angle as well, having lost two in a row to Houston (both were on the road). In fact, Portland is 10-2 ATS in home games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 104.6 to 93.7. Additionally, Portland's blowout win over Denver in its season final proves important as it is 8-0 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more this season and 9-0 ATS in home games after allowing 80 points or less over the last 2 seasons. The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Trail Blazers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet the Blazers!

3* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" BLOWOUT on Pistons/Cavs OVER 175
These are two defensive minded teams, but the books have set the bar too low for game one. Both of these teams have been playing to the over lately with Cleveland going over the total in 6 of its last 8 and Detroit going over in 12 of its last 17. The Over is 11-4-1 in the Pistons last 16 vs. the Eastern Conference, 7-3-1 in the Pistons last 11 road games, and 14-6-1 in the Pistons last 21 overall. The intensity picks up as a playoff series goes on so I don't expect these teams to be at their best defensively in game 1. I'll bet the over.

3* NBA Regular Season Finale on Pacers -8
The Bucks got up for their final home game of the season and buried a shorthanded Magic team. Now we can expect a big letdown from the Bucks out on the road tonight against a Pacers team which will be looking to close out the season on a winning note in front of its home fans. Plus, Indy will be remembering a 122-110 loss it was handed at Milwaukee in the last meeting between these two teams. With the current lineups, the Pacers are the much better team and I expect their uptempo game to run the Bucks off the court tonight. Milwaukee is 0-9 ATS after playing 4 consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 91.7 to 104.9. Indiana is 15-4 ATS revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more this season. The Bucks are 1-7-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Indiana and the Favorite is 14-3-2 ATS in the last 19 meetings. The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Central and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss. All Pacers tonight!

5* Tuesday Night NBA BEST BET BLOWOUT on Hawks -9
Miami has clinched the No. 5 seed in the postseason so it has nothing to play for tonight in terms of playoff seeding and will sacrifice a loss to gain some health. Udonis Haslem is out for the remainder of the regular season with a thumb injury. Jamario Moon missed last game and is questionable tonight with a groin injury. Jermaine O'Neal is expected to miss tonight with a calf injury and Dwayne Wade is expected to sit this one out for rest. This is the Hawks' regular season home finale so I expect them to put on a show for their fans tonight as well as send a message to the Heat, which they will face in the first round of the playoffs. The Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Hawks are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. Bet the Hawks!

5* NBA Game of the Week on Bucks -3.5
The Magic are locked into the No. 3 seed in the East so it's about staying healthy the rest of the way out. Without Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis, and with Dwight Howard's minutes cut down, the Magic won't stand a chance tonight. The Magic haven't been playing very well lately on top of it. You can expect a Bucks team which hasn't quit to lay it all on the line in their final home game of the season tonight. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points and the Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Magic are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing SU record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Odds makers have favored the Bucks for a reason tonight. Lay the number.

3* Eastern Conference Finals Preview on Cavs -6
The Celtics would love to send a message to the Cavs that they can win on the road if they are to face off with Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Cavs will be interested in sending a message as well and I like them to get that accomplished without Kevin Garnett in the lineup for Boston. Cleveland is 38-1 at home this season and has won 7 straight at home against the Celtics the last 3 seasons. The Celtics are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Cleveland. The Cavaliers are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 vs. NBA Atlantic and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Also, Cleveland is 9-1 ATS after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half this season, winning by an average score of 104.4 to 86.6 in these spots. Take the Cavs.

5* NBA Blowout of the Month on Orlando Magic -5.5
After thumping Cleveland, the Magic have gone through a 4-game stretch where they have not played very well. I took advantage of this recent decline in play by grabbing the Knicks last night against them. The Magic were called out after last night's terrible loss by head coach Stan Van Gundy and I expect them to respond in a big way tonight. The Magic have had no problem winning on the road this year as they are 27-12 SU and ATS away from home. New Jersey has no advantage in terms of fresh legs as it played last night in Detroit. Orlando has won 4 straight against the Nets with 3 of those wins coming by double digits. The Favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the Magic are an incredible 47-16-1 ATS in their last 64 games following a SU loss. Orlando is also 17-6 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% over the last 2 seasons. Take the Magic tonight!

5* Friday Night NBA Game of the Year on Knicks +10.5
The Knicks have played the Magic very tough this season because they are on of the few teams which can match Orlando's transition game. In three meetings this season, the Knicks have lost by just 5, 7, and 4 points respectively. It is very hard to beat any team 4 straight times in the same season and the Knicks will have even greater motivation tonight because they were pounded 86-113 by the Pistons last game. While the Knicks are just 11-28 on the road, they are 25-13-1 ATS in those games and the Knicks have played their best ball against the best teams in the league. In fact, NY is 14-3 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season. NY is 12-3 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points this season, 19-5 ATS after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog this season, and 18-5 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season. Lastly, plays on any team (NEW YORK) after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against an opponent after a combined score of 160 points or less are 23-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points!

3* NBA Total of the Week on Pacers/Hawks UNDER 212
Atlanta's defense has been exceptional at home this season, allowing only 92.7 ppg. The last time the Pacers visited Atlanta on March 13th, the Hawks held them to just 87 points in a games which totaled just 188. Indiana is 21-4 UNDER when they score 93 to 98 points in a game over the last 2 seasons and this is the range my game estimator has placed them in tonight. The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta, 10-4 in Hawks last 14 home games, and 5-1 in Hawks last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Bet the Under.

5* NBA on TNT MONSTER BEST BET on 76ers +6
After back-to-back defeats, I expect the 76ers to give the Bulls all they want and more tonight. The Bulls are improved but not deserving of this kind of respect against a team with a better record. One major key is that Philly is 25-10 ATS in road games off a road loss over the last 3 seasons while the Bulls are just 13-31 ATS off a home win over the last 2 seasons. The Road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, the Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the 76ers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Chicago. Also, the 76ers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Take the points!

5* ESPN Prime Time Game of the Month on Mavs -3
The Mavs are going to make the playoffs, but their mission right now is to get out of the No. 8 spot so they won't have to face the Lakers in round one. Dallas is just 1 game behind Utah in the Western Conference standings so I like the Mavs to go after this game hard tonight. Utah is 1-9 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season, getting kicked by an average score of 104.3 to 114.3 in these spots. The Jazz are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog and the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Also, Utah absolutely clobbered Dallas 115-87 last time these teams met so the Mavs will extract a little added motivation from that game as well. Lay the points tonight!

3* NBA SMASH on Magic +1
Orlando is playing perhaps the best basketball in the NBA right now, having won 8 of its last 9 and 15 of its last 18, which includes big wins over Boston, Cleveland, Atlanta, and Utah. Houston is really struggling on the offensive end and that gives a balanced Magic attack the edge tonight. At 27-11 SU and ATS, the Magic are the elite road covering team in the NBA and they have plenty of motivation as they go after the No. 2 seed in the East. Orlando is 17-5 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season, winning these games by an average score of 98.2 to 91.5. Orlando is also 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season. Bet the Magic!

5* NBA Vegas Line Mistake of the Year on Hawks -1
The Hawks have lost 3 in a row and 5 of their last 6, but 2 of those losses came to Boston, 1 to Orlando, 1 to San Antonio, and 1 at playoff bound Philly in a letdown spot after a win over the Lakers. The Hawks know they can't continue their losing ways if they are going to hold on to the No. 4 spot in the East to ensure themselves home court in the first round. After winning 6 in a row, the Raptors were defeated by the Knicks and I believe that loss cools them off as they are now officially eliminated from the postseason. Toronto is 2-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season, losing by an average score of 95.7 to 105.5 in these spots. The Hawks are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite while the Raptors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 4.5 or less and 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Take the Hawks!

5* 2009 NCAA Championship Game MONSTER BEST BET on Michigan State +8
We cashed in our 5* Sweet 16 GOTY on the Spartans over Kansas. Then, we cashed in our 5* Elite 8 BEST BET on Michigan State over Louisville. We cashed in on Michigan State yet again with our 3* Final Four First Blood play as it defeated UConn. I think it's time everyone started believing in the Spartans. If you thought Ford Field was electric for Michigan State's Final Four matchup with UConn, wait until you hear the crowd roar tonight. This is going to be very much like a home game with Spartans and underdog fans cheering against the Tar Heels. Another key factor in this one is that UNC smoked a tired Michigan State team that was playing without Goran Suton in this same building early in the season. That is ammo for Tom Izzo to get his boys ready to go if I've ever seen it. Defense wins championships and the Spartans have the better defense. They were able to take both Louisville and UConn completely out of what they like to do and I expect the Spartans to make life difficult on the Tar Heels as well. Offensively, North Carolina is not the best defensive team in the country so Michigan State is going to be able to score the basketball. The Heels aren't as big and strong on the interior as UConn and Michigan State was able to dominate at times on the glass. I expect the Spartans to win the boards tonight. It's been pretty much a breeze for the Heels to this point, but the picnic ends tonight as they will be in for a battle with a strong defensive opponent. Michigan State has shown that it won't back down from anyone and I'll grab the points tonight as the Spartans can win this thing. The Spartans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games, 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 NCAA Tournament games. Michigan State is 15-4 ATS in all neutral court lined games over the last 2 seasons and 14-4 ATS versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% this season. Bet the Spartans!

3* SMASH on Houston Rockets -4
Portland has blown out 4 straight opponents but its run comes to an end tonight against a determined Rockets team that returns home off back-to-back losses. Houston has won 4 of the last 5 at home and 7 of the last 10 overall in this matchup and I like Houston's success against the Blazers to continue because of how strong it is defensively. The Rockets are 30-8 at home this season with an outstanding differential of 8.1 points per game. The Trail Blazers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Lay the points.

5* NBA Underdog Shocker of the Year on Utah Jazz +3
The Jazz have really struggled on the road this season, but they have all the motivation in the world to get up for this one. Utah has lost 3 in a row and it's last loss was as bad as it gets, falling at home as a 13-point favorite to a lowly and shorthanded Timberwolves team. The Jazz will be out for blood tonight and they will not be lacking any confidence against a team they have owned. Utah has won 3 straight over the Hornets by a minimum of 11 points and it has taken 7 of the last 9 overall. In fact, the Jazz are 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Deron Williams has gotten the better of his rivalry with Chris Paul as his size and strength gives the smaller Paul problems on both ends of the floor. Without Tyson Chandler on the defensive side of the ball to go against the size and length of Utah, the Hornets are going to struggle to stop the Jazz on the interior. You can bet Jerry Sloan has ripped into his team about their recent defensive effort and history says the Jazz will put the clamps on tonight as they are a perfect 9-0 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The Jazz have won in these spots by an average score of 18 points. Also, the Hornets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less points. We'll pound Utah tonight!

5* Final Four Game of the Year on North Carolina -7
Villanova has made an amazing run, but this is where it ends. The Tar Heels were crushed in last year's Final Four matchup with Kansas but they won't be denied this time around. Every one talks about Villanova's defense, but it is used to defending the half court offenses of the Big East. Just like all of UNC's other opponents in the dance, Villanova will eventually run out of gas against the Carolina run and gun attack. Jay Wright can try it all, but I really believe that there will be no answer for Ty Lawson and that will be the difference. The Tar Heels are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games period. The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. UNC is 8-1 ATS in NCAA tournament games over the last 2 seasons and 19-6 ATS versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons. Lay the points.

4* Major NBA Eastern Conference GOTM on Atlanta Hawks +2
I love the Hawks tonight as this one has letdown written all over it for the Magic after murdering Cleveland last night. Atlanta has now lost 2 in a row and is also playing with double revenge against the Magic so expect the Hawks to be ready to go tonight. Atlanta was drilled by the Magic the last time these teams faced off and that sets up a very favorable system here. Plays on underdogs revenging a blowout loss vs. an opponent of 30 points or more, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 27-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. Bet the Hawks!

3* Final Four First Blood on Michigan State +4.5
Michigan State is not getting nearly enough credit. This is a team which took out defending champion Kansas and then completely dominated Big East champ Louisville. The Spartans will be up for the challenge this evening and it doesn't hurt that they will be playing close to home at Ford Field. Michigan State is a big, physical, defensive team which can make life very difficult for the Huskies on the offensive end, just like they did against Louisville. Michigan State is 15-6 ATS when playing away from home versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 69.1 to 68.4. The Spartans are 13-4 ATS versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% this season, 14-4 ATS in all neutral court lined games over the last 2 seasons, and 16-6 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. Take the points.

5* CBI Tournament GOTY on UTEP -8.5
We had UTEP in game two and endured a 2-point ATS loss that should have never happened. The Miners missed 15 free throws and shot just 2 of 12 from three-point range in that game. Oregon State has had a good run, but with the CBI Title on the line, I don't see the better team in this matchup playing as poorly again. After a terrible first half, the Miners outscored Oregon State 40-28 in the second and I expect UTEP to pick up right where it left off. Oregon State is 0-6 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders this season, losing by an average score of 53.0 to 69.3 in these spots. UTEP is 7-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite this season. The books were hit hard with Oregon State's surprising cover in game 2, but they'll get it all back and then some tonight as the Miners take care of business with a double digit win. Lay the points.

3* ESPN Game of the Week on Magic -3
It appears both teams got caught looking ahead to this one as each team fell to inferior opponents in their last game. But I give the edge to the Magic with fresher legs and home court against a team they have owned. Orlando is 3-1 SU and ATS versus Cleveland at home the last 3 seasons and 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS in all games against the Cavs the past 3 years. The Cavaliers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Southeast, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference. The Magic are a ridiculous 40-13 ATS in their last 53 games following a SU loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Central. The Cavaliers are also 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Cleveland won by 4 at home when these teams faced off on March 17th to set up the clincher - Orlando is 27-6 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 104.5 to 95.8 points in these games. Bet the Magic!

4* Major NBA Public Opinion GOTM on Spurs -4
The Spurs are in a heated race in the West for the No. 2 seed in the playoffs and after back to back defeats, including a bad one as a 13-point favorite against the OKC Thunder, expect the Spurs to bounce back strong tonight. The Spurs have not lost 3 in a row since starting the season 0-3 so I'm confident they get things turned around here. The Spurs have owned the Pacers winning five of the last six meetings by an average of 15.2 points. It's also going to be hard for Indiana to match intensity tonight off a big come from behind win against division rival Chicago in its last game. Looks like a letdown spot for the Pacers and the numbers support it. Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in non-conference games, off a close home win by 3 points or less are 29-6 ATS since 1996. Bet the Spurs.

5* NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Nuggets -4
Denver has found its way into the No. 2 spot in the West and that's where this team wants to end up. The Nuggets are rolling, having won 4 in a row and 9 of their last 10. With a game against the Clippers next, we won't have to worry about Denver overlooking a Jazz team that is nipping at its heels, especially since the Jazz beat Denver 97-91 in the last meeting on March 6th. With home court, revenge, and playoff seeding motivation all in their favor, I like the Nuggets here. Utah is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 road games when playing against a team with a winning record, losing by an average score of 103.9 to 116.9 in these spots. Denver is 7-0 ATS off a home no-cover where they won straight up as a favorite this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 112.4 to 104.6. Bet the Nuggets!

4* Major NIT Championship Game MONSTER BEST BET (ESPN) on Penn State +4
This should be a pick 'em game in my opinion so I'll definitely grab the points here. Both of these teams have great guards who are good play makers and can really score the basketball, but the edge goes to Penn State because of its defense. Penn State allows just 62.6 ppg on the season while Baylor gives up 70.1. The Nittany Lions have especially turned up the heat in their last 2 games, holding Florida and Notre Dame to 62 and 59 points respectively. Baylor definitely has the look of a false favorite when you consider that it is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. The Nittany Lions are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games. I believe Penn State is the tougher, grittier team and that gets the Nittany Lions the NIT championship tonight!

5* 2009 NBA GOTY on Suns -1
The Suns return home after 3 straight road games and 3 straight losses, including a terrible loss to the lowly Kings last time out. The Suns won't quit on this season no matter what and since they are still alive in the playoff race, I expect one of their most motivated efforts of the season tonight. I expect Houston to be much more concerned about its revenge game with the Lakers coming up next as well. Phoenix is 15-4 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 107.3 to 99.3 and 8-1 ATS after allowing 120 points or more this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 116.1 to 106.3. Pound the Suns!

4* Major CBI Tournament Championship Series BEST BET on UTEP -9
The odds makers have gotten the public on Oregon State with this line which is right where they want them as this one is going to be a rout for UTEP. The Miners are at home and it's a do-or-die game. Oregon State has had the benefit of playing all of its tournament games at home but I expect disaster for the Beavers when it steps out of its routine for the first time since March 11. Oregon State is just 4-10 when playing away from home this season. The Beavers are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. The Miners are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5. Lay the points.

4* Major NBA Public Massacre of the Week on Nets -1.5
Detroit just played a tough one at Cleveland yesterday and it is going to be very tough for the Pistons to bounce back on the road against a Nets team that is coming off its most embarrassing loss of the year. This one is all about pride and I expect the Nets to play with a lot of it tonight to snap a 5-game losing streak. The Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the Nets are 18-6 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Take New Jersey.

5* NIT FINAL FOUR BEST BET (ESPN 2) on Notre Dame -4
Penn State is a small team and that does not bode well for them tonight against first team All-Big East stud Luke Harangody and company. The Irish have a big advantage with their front line and should dominate the painted area because of it. Penn State won't have the luxury of doubling down on Harangody either, because Kyle McAlarney and company can torch you from the perimeter. This Notre Dame team went 25-8 last season so this season has been a big disappointment. But the Irish are making the best of it and I expect them to continue their winning ways in the Garden. Penn State took out Florida on its home court to get here and that sets up a nice system in our favor. Penn State is just 1-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average score of 59.2 to 72.9 in these spots. Lay the points!

4* Major NBA Letdown Game of the Week on 76ers -3
I love the 76ers in this spot tonight. Atlanta finds itself in a big letdown spot following a big win over the Lakers and also in a look ahead spot with Boston up next. The 76ers have lost back-to-back games and will be very hungry to get back in the win column tonight. Atlanta has really struggled on the road this season and has lost 6 of its last 7 away from home. Philly won the last meeting 109-94 on the road and should have no trouble taking the Hawks down again at home in this spot, especially since Atlanta is 12-25 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average score of 88.7 to 99.4 in these spots. Take Philly.

3* NIT FINAL FOUR SMASH (ESPN 2) on Baylor -1
Baylor has been the more inconsistent team this season, but this time of year it's all about what have you done for me lately and Baylor has won 6 of its last 7 with big wins over Kansas, Texas, Georgetown, Virginia Tech, and Auburn. This will be SDSU's first game stepping away from home in the NIT and that gives the advantage to Baylor, which has won its last two in true road games to get to the Garden. San Diego State typically does a good job of taking care of the basketball, but up against a quick Baylor team and playing a long ways from home, I expect turnovers to tell the story. Plus, SDSU is 0-8 ATS in road games after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers since 1997, losing in these spots by an average score of 76.4 to 82.1. Take Baylor.

3* CBI Tournament Championship Series Game 1 BEST BET on UTEP -1
The Beavers don't have the horses to stick with a very good UTEP squad tonight. The Beavers have escaped by the skin of their teeth thus far in this tourney but now they come up against a more athletic, better shooting team, that has been unphased on the road. UTEP is 10-3 ATS in road lined games this season and 11-3 ATS in non-conference games this season. Automatically you know the Beavers are in trouble when you see odds makers put their over/under numbers in the 130's as they are just is 1-9 ATS in a home game where the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average score of 56.3 to 71.9 in these spots. Bet UTEP.

5* NBA Southeast Division GOTY on Heat +3.5
Miami has had this one circled ever since it was crushed 99-122 at Orlando just over a month ago. Miami defeated the Magic 103-97 in its only home game against them this season and I like the Heat to take them down again in this revenge spot tonight. Miami is 26-11 at home this season, having won 6 straight at home, including wins over Boston and Utah. There are a few things to take into account for this matchup and the first is that the home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. And the Magic are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Monday games. Orlando is a fine road team, but it will have no answer for Dwayne Wade and the Heat tonight in this severe revenge spot. Take the points.

4* Major NBA Public Massacre on Kings +5
Phoenix is watching its playoff hopes slip away with an OT loss in Utah last night. The Suns have now lost 7 of 8 on the road and we'll fade them here playing back-to-back against a Kings team that will be out for serious revenge after getting clobbered 129-81 the last time these teams faced off. The public is all over the Suns here and that means there is great strength in siding with the house. Here's the key: plays on underdogs revenging a blowout loss of 30 points or more, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 26-6 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the points.

3* SMASH on Atlanta Hawks +4
Off back-to-back losses to the Spurs and Celtics, I expect Atlanta to breakthrough Sunday, especially since Kobe has an injured ankle and will not unnecessarily be pushing it. Atlanta is 13-4 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, 10-1 ATS after playing 3 consecutive home games this season, and 13-4 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. Take the points.

5* Elite Eight BEST BET Michigan State +7.5
The Spartans have an excellent chance to win this game outright so I won't hesitate to grab the points. The big key is that Michigan State is solid enough defensively to limit Louisville's scoring runs and offensively it has good enough guard play, led by Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas, to beat the Louisville pressure consistently. Michigan State is 13-4 ATS in all neutral court lined games over the last 2 seasons and 18-5 ATS versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season after 15+ games since 1997. Also, Michigan State is 17-3 when playing away from home this season and you're not going to fin better than that. Louisville has had a soft road to this point with Morehead State, Siena, and Arizona while the Spartans have had tough games with USC and Kansas to reach this point. A tough tournament schedule will have the Spartans ready to go today. Bet Michigan State.

3* NBA Saturday Night BEST BET BLOWOUT on Jazz -8.5
Utah lost by 4 in Phoenix 3 nights ago in its last game and will be out for revenge here. That loss actually marked the second straight time this season that the Suns have defeated the Jazz so Utah will be even more focused to get the job done tonight. The Suns have lost 6 of their last 7 on the road as they continue their season-long struggles away from home. Phoenix is 0-11 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season. Utah is 11-2 ATS in home games after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 106.1 to 93.3. The Jazz have their revenge tonight.

5* Elite Eight GOTY on Pittsburgh -1.5
Pitt shows excellent value here as failing to cover a game in the NCAA tournament, while Nova has covered 2 straight in impressive wins, has brought this line down. Consider that Pitt was a 3.5-point favorite on the road when these teams met earlier this season. That meeting, which saw Nova win, is crucial here. While getting to the Final Four is motivation enough for any team to lay it all on the line, that only adds to Pitt's motivation here. Particularly for DeJuan Blair, who will want to have a much better game this time around. You also have to consider that Nova has played as well as it can play in back-to-back games and is due for a letdown while Pitt has just gotten by and is primed for a breakout performance. Here's the key: Pitt is 8-1 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) this season, winning by an average score of 69.8 to 57.8. Nova won't get the Panthers twice. Lay the points.

4* Major NCAA Tournament Total of the Year on Missouri/UConn UNDER 150.5
This line is set 18 points higher than it was in UConn's last game and 9 points higher than it was in Memphis' last game. While Mizzou's pressing style seeks to speed up the tempo, the Huskies have been very disciplined against like teams, playing Louisville to a 68-51 game on the road during the season. The Huskies won't let the pressure get them out of sync and the result sees this one come in under the number. Here's something to chew on: the Under is 5-0 in the Tigers last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Why is that? Because that kind of scoring output raises the bar in the following game as we see here. The Under is 5-1 in the Huskies last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. UConn takes on the challenge of shutting down the Tigers defensively here and gets the job done. Bet the Under.

4* Major Sweet 16 Bailout on UNC -8.5
UNC finally got Ty Lawson back on the floor against LSU and he was a little rusty early on, but it all started clicking and the Heels won by 14. Same deal here, Gonzaga will be able to hang around for a while, but it won