5* NCAAB No Limit Game of the Month on Cal - 

The Golden Bears are showing great value here at home against Arizona State. California is prime for a dominant performance on their home floor tonight. The Golden Bears come into this contest off 3 straight conference losses on the road, but it's important to note that they could have won all 3, as all 3 losses came by 6-points or less. Prior to losing 3 straight on the road, Cal was impressive in blowout home wins over Colorado (79-65) and Utah (71-58).

Needless to say given their 3-game slide, Cal is going to come out as motivated and focused as they have all season. That should be more than enough to win and cover this spread, as the Golden Bears have a great home court advantage. Cal is a perfect 11-0 at home. Arizona State has dropped 3 of their last 4 true road games and are just 1-4 to start out Pac-12 play. 

Sun Devils enter off a 85-89 home loss to Washington and that's important to note. Arizona State is just 11-27 ATS in their last 38 road games off a home loss, 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games after a home game where both teams scored 75 or more and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games after a combined score of 155 or more in their last game.

Adding to this is a strong system. Home favorites off 2 or more consecutive losses as a road favorite are 90-42 (68%) ATS since 1997 and are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season. Take California! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Kentucky -

The perception on Kentucky has taken a big hit of late, as the Wildcats are just 6-4 over their last 10 games and come into this contest off an ugly 70-75 defeat at Auburn as a 12-point favorite. While this is clearly not an elite Kentucky team like years past, this is still a very good Wildcats team. 

One thing Kentucky has been able to do extremely well is rebound off a loss. Kentucky is a perfect 3-0 after a loss this season. Their previous loss before Auburn was a 67-85 defeat at LSU. They followed that up with a 77-61 blowout win at Alabama as a mere 6.5-point favorite. 

Arkansas is quality team, but are no match for the Wildcats. The Razorbacks covered last time out in a 74-76 defeat at LSU, which snapped a 3-game winning streak. I believe Arkansas is simply getting way too much love here due to covering each of their last 4 games and will be no match for a motivated Kentucky team. 

Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record and 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 against the SEC. Take Kentucky! 

5* Hawks/Blazer ESPN ATS Vegas Insider on Blazers +

The books are begging you to take the Hawks as a small road favorite against the Blazers in a prime time matchup on ESPN, which only strengthens how much I like Portland in this spot. The Blazers come into this game playing well. They have won 4 of their last 5, which includes two impressive home wins over the Thunder (115-10) and Jazz (99-85). 

Atlanta is simply getting a lot of love here due to back-to-back blowout wins at home against the Nets (114-86) and Magic (98-81). Two teams that aren't very good and not playing well at the moment. The key thing here is the Hawks have not played well on the road of late. They lost back-to-back games at Charlotte (84-107) and Milwaukee (101-108) and have dropped 4 of their last 6 away from home with one of the wins coming against the 76ers. 

These two teams played in Atlanta back on 12/21, which the Hawks won by a final of 106-97. That may appear as positive for Atlanta, but Portland is a completely different team on the road and were without their top two scorers in Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. It's also worth noting that the Blazers went just 5 of 24 from the 3-point line and as a team rank 3rd in the league with 10.3 3-pointers made per game. 

Hawks are a mere 4-16 ATS in their last 20 road games in the 2nd half of the season against up-tempo teams that average 83 or more shots/game and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games against a marginal winning team (40% to 49%). Blazers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 off an upset win as a road dog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference. Take Portland! 

4* Bulls/Warriors ESPN Total Dominator on UNDER 

When it comes to playing elite teams at home the Bulls have been outstanding on the defensive side of the floor. Just to mention a few, Chicago has held the Cavaliers to 95, Thunder to 98, San Antonio to 89, Clippers to 80, Raptors to 97. I'm expecting that same defensive intensity against the Warriors, as they are well aware of what happened to Cleveland at home on Monday. 

These two teams played in Golden State earlier this season and combined for just 200 points with a total of 207.5. Given this is such a huge matchup and that it's a nationally televised game on ESPN, there's no doubt in mind mind this is an inflated total, especially with both teams coming off high-scoring games that went over the total. 

What gets overlooked on both of these teams is how good they are on the defensive end. Chicago ranks 6th in defensive efficiency and the Warriors are 4th. Another important factor here is that this is a bit of a letdown spot for Golden State, as there's no question that game at Cleveland meant a lot to this team. 

UNDER is 4-0 in the Bulls last 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games, 12-2 in their last 14 against the Western Conference and 8-1 in their last 9 home games when revenging a loss to an opponent where they allowed 100 or more. UNDER is also 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams in Chicago. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Celtics/Raptors UNDER 

These two teams combined for 216 points in their only previous meeting this season at Boston back on 10/30. The total in that game was just 200 points. Given that both teams have cruised past the over in each of their last 3 games, you would expect to see a much higher total in this game. That's a good sign the books are expecting a lot more defense this time around and I definitely think that's going to be the case. 

Anytime you get two division rivals going at it this late in the season, especially quality teams like we have here, the defensive intensity gets turned up a notch. Overall, both of these teams have been strong defensively against their division foes this season. Boston is only giving up 99.9 and the Raptors are allowing just 94.6 ppg. 

Toronto won that first meeting 113-103 at Boston, which is important to note, as the UNDER is 12-2 in the Celtics last 14 road games when revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. UNDER is also 13-1 in Boston's last 14 road games off a loss by 6 points or less and 9-3 in the Raptors last 12 off a SU win by more than 10 points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Texas +

The public perception is growing rapidly on West Virginia and as a result the Mountaineers are way overvalued here at home against the Longhorns. While West Virginia lost 68-70 at Oklahoma in their last game, they covered as a 4.5-point dog. That followed a 74-63 win at home over Kansas and 77-60 win at home against Oklahoma State. 

I believe we are going to see West Virginia come out bit flat here against Texas, as they laid everything they had into their last two games against Kansas and Oklahoma, two teams that were No.1 and No. 2 in the country. It's also not easy bouncing back from a heartbreaking loss like they had against the Sooners. 

Texas is a team that a lot of people wrote off early in the year, but the Longhorns come in playing extremely well. Texas followed up a huge 94-91 home win over Iowa State with a 74-69 win at home against Oklahoma State. It's also important to note that the Longhorns have lost once all season by double-digits and that was against a Texas A&M team that is one of the best in the country. 

What I really like here is the fact that Texas has consistently played West Virginia tough. The Long Horns have won 5 of the last 6 in the series and are 6-3 in the last 9. All 3 losses came by 7-points or less.

Adding to this is the fact that the Mountaineers are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games off a cover where they lost outright as an underdog and the Longhorns are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games after 2 or more consecutive wins. Take Texas! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Virginia Tech +

The Hokies are showing exceptional value here as a double-digit road dog against the Fighting Irish. These two teams come in with near identical records, as Virginia Tech is 12-6 and Notre Dame is 12-5. On top of that, the Hokies are 4-1 in league play, while the Irish are just 3-2.

The key here is Virginia Tech wasn't expected to be any good this year and the books are going to be a lot slower to adjust on a team like this. In fact, they are more likely to inflate this line on Notre Dame, given they are coming off a huge 95-91 upset win at Duke as a 8.5-point dog. As impressive as that win appears on paper, that's not the same caliber a Blue Devils team as years past and it has them prime for a letdown. 

The Hokies 4-1 start to ACC play has been no fluke. Virginia Tech has wins over NC State, Virginia, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech on the road. Confidence is everything at this point in the season and there's no question the Hokies are going to be extremely motivated for this game when they see they are expected to get blown out of the gym according to the oddsmakers. 

Notre Dame is just 17-30 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons,  3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games after wining 3 of their last 4, 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after playing their previous game as a road dog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. Take Virginia Tech! 

4* Wolves/Pelicans NBA TV ATS No Brainer on Pelicans -

As bad as the Pelicans have struggled to this point, New Orleans is still within striking distance of a playoff spot in the Western Conference. I still believe that this is a much better team than it's record would indicate and that is playing a big part in the value we are finding with New Orleans as   a relatively small home favorite against the Timberwolves. 

Minnesota comes in off a 117-87 blowout win at home against the Suns, but given the way Phoenix has been playing of late that's really nothing to get excited about. That win doesn't cover up the fact that the Timberwolves had lost 9 straight and 21 of the previous 25. Minnesota is just 3-12 over their last 15 road games and I just don't see them putting up much of a fight tonight. 

It's also important to note that New Orleans has owned the Timberwolves of late. The Pelicans have won 5 straight in the series and all 5 wins have come by at least 7 points. Last time they hosted Minnesota, they won 110-88. 

Pelicans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against the Western Conference, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a losing record and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 when playing on no rest. Minnesota is 1-13 ATS in their last 14 after covering 3 of their last 4, 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after playing a game as a favorite and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. Take New Orleans! 

5* Big Ten Game of the Month on Northwestern +

Northwestern is showing tremendous value here as a massive road dog against the Terrapins. I believe we are seeing a drastically inflated line based on the recent results of both teams. The Wildcats just got embarrassed at home 62-71 as a 9-point favorite against Penn State, while Maryland rolled Ohio State 100-65 as a 10.5-point home favorite. 

Losing to the Nittany Lions at home isn't going to help the Wildcats cause of making their first NCAA Tournament, but this is without a doubt one of the best teams Northwestern has ever had. I look for Northwestern to be the much more motivated team in this one.

Not only because of what happened in each teams' last game, but they are going to want revenge from a 59-72 loss at home to Maryland back on 1/2. Coming off that big win over the Buckeyes, having already beat Northwestern and an even bigger game on deck at Michigan State, I don't see the Terrapins coming out with the kind of intensity to turn this into a blowout. 

It's also important to note that Northwestern has played some of their best basketball on the road. The Wildcats are 5-1 away from home with a perfect 4-0 record in true road games. Their only defeat away from home is a 11-point defeat to North Carolina on a neutral court. 

Maryland is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 as a home favorite of 12.5 or more and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after a contest where they shot 55% or better from the field. Wildcats are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 when revenging a loss by 10 or more points. Take Northwestern! 

5* Oklahoma/Iowa St NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Iowa St - 

The Cyclones are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Sooners. Iowa State got off to a surprisingly poor start in conference play, losing 3 of their first 4, including a rare home loss to Baylor. They responded in a big way on Saturday in a must-win situation, going on the road and knocking off Kansas State 76-63.

I look for the Cyclones to carry over that momentum and hand the Sooners their second loss of the season. Keep in mind these two teams played in Oklahoma back on 1/2 and the Sooners barely escaped with a 87-83 win as a 6.5-point favorite. Playing with revenge and one of the best home court advantages in the country, Iowa State should be a bigger favorite than what they are. The Cyclones are 72-6 at home since February of 2011. Keep in mind they lost 83-94 at Oklahoma last year and then returned home in the rematch and defeated the Sooners 77-70 as a 6-point favorite. 

Cyclones are 24-4 ATS in their last 28 as a home favorite of 3 points or less, while Oklahoma is a mere 8-17 ATS in their last 25 when they come in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record. Take Iowa State! 

3* Bulls/Pistons NBA ATS Annihilator on Bulls +

The Bulls have been waiting for their chance at revenge against the Pistons. Chicago has lost both meetings against Detroit this season in heartbreaking fashion. They fell 94-98 at Detroit back on 10/30 and then recently suffered a 144-147 4OT thriller at Chicago on 12/18. Not only are the Bulls going to be extremely motivated playing with double-revenge, but Chicago desperately needs a win here after losing 4 of their last 5. 

Detroit isn't going to have that same sense of urgency due to already having beat the Bulls twice this year. On top of that, the Pistons are in a prime letdown spot after a 113-95 home win over the Warriors as a 7-point dog, easily their best win of the entire season. 

Bulls are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 revenging a home loss and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 2 days of rest. Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Pistons. Home teams off an upset win as a home dog against an opponent off a home loss are just 12-40 (23%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Chicago! 

4* NBA Early Bird Over/Under Total Annihilator on Jazz/Hornets UNDER

This game has a low-scoring defensive battle written all over it. Utah should be able to dictate the tempo in this one, as they will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 4 days, while the Hornets are playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days. No team plays at a slower tempo than the Jazz at 93.5.

Utah's overall defensive numbers aren't great, but that has a lot to do with center Rudy Gobert has missed a significant stretch. He's back in the lineup and the Jazz have held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 100 or less, three times holding under 85. Charlotte only managed 92 points at home against the Bucks in their last game and I don't see the offense coming to life against Utah. 

Charlotte is giving up 100.4 ppg on the season, but they play much better defensively at home, where they are allowing 98.2 ppg. I look for the Hornets defense to be able to keep the Jazz in check, as Utah is far from an explosive offensive team and are without 2nd leading scorer Derrick Favors (16.8 ppg). 

Under is 31-13 in the Hornets last 44 home games as a favorite of 6 or less, 23-11 in Utah's last 34 as a road dog of 6 or less, 8-1 in the Jazz's last 9 after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 and 20-5 in their last 25 after allowing 85 or less in their last game. Take the UNDER! 

4* Oregon/Colorado NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Colorado +

The Buffaloes are showing some great value here as a home dog against the Ducks. Colorado is 9-1 on their home floor this season and have own the Ducks of late with 3 straight wins at home in the series. Oregon is simply overvalued here due to coming in off 3 straight wins and having won 7 of their last 8. 

Colorado has cone and impressive 29-18 ATS in their last 47 in games with a line of +3 to -3 and are 24-13 ATS in their last 37 home games against teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field. Note that Oregon is only shooting 43.7% on the road compared to 46.1% overall. Ducks won 77-59 at Utah in their last game, but prior to that they lost 57-70 at Oregon State and 72-74 at Boise State. It's hard enough winning on the road in conference play and I just don't see Oregon pulling off back-to-back big road wins in this spot. Take Colorado! 

3* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Timberwolves -

This is a great spot to back Minnesota as a small home favorite against the Suns. While the Timberwolves come in having lost 9 straight, this is a young team that is still playing hard right now. It also says a lot about what the books are expecting here from the Suns with the Timberwolves listed as a favorite. Phoenix has been equally bad of late, as they are just 1-12 in their last 13 games. 

Minnesota's not a great home team, but the Suns are straight up awful on the road. Phoenix is 4-17 away from home, losing by an average of 9.8 ppg. The Suns are playing little to no defense right now and the injury to Eric Bledsoe has really taken away from their ability to score on the offensive end. Phoenix has allowed 100+ points in 12 of their last 13 games and are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after allowing 100 or more in 3 straight games. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Suns. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 that are playing just their 2nd game in 5 days are 10-29 (26%) ATS on Sunday over the last 5 seasons. It's also worth noting that the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in the series. Take Minnesota!

4* Arkansas/LSU NCAAB ATS Vegas Insider on LSU - 

I really like the value we are getting with LSU in this game. The Tigers are a well known commodity with freshman sensation Ben Simmons leading the way, but the public is starting to lose interest as they are just 5-9 ATS and have failed to cover each of their last 2. Arkansas on the other hand is a much more attractive option with this line, as they have won 3 straight and are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games. I believe it's resulted in a very favorable line here for LSU at home. 

The Razorbacks have won 3 straight conference games, but two of those have come against two of the worst teams in the league in Mississippi State and Missouri, while the other came at home against Vanderbilt. Arkansas' only real road test in the SEC came in their opener at Texas A&M and they got destroyed 69-92 as an 11-point dog. The Razorbacks overall are just 1-6 away from home this season, while LSU is a dominant 9-1 at home. 

The Tigers come in off a 90-81 win at home against Ole Miss, who I would classify as a similar caliber team to Arkansas and they did so without Ben Simmons playing well. Simmons had just 15 points, well below his season average of 20.3. LSU also overcame a 33-point effort from Ole Miss' Stefan Moody and 11 3-pointers made by the Rebels. 

It's also important to note that this is a bit of a lookahead spot for the Razorbacks with a huge home game against Kentucky on deck. It will be a lot easier to lookahead to that game with the recent success they have endured and I believe it adds up to a blowout loss on the road against a LSU team that is getting better and better as the season moves along. 

Arkansas is 4-15 ATS in their last 19 after 2 straight games where they shot 50% or better from the field, 5-17 ATS in their last 22 road games after covering 4 of their last 5 and 28-60 ATS in their last 88 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take LSU! 

4* Bucks/Hornets NBA ATS No Brainer on Hornets -

This may seem like a big number for Charlotte to be laying at home against the Bucks, given the Hornets come in off a 107-109 loss at home last night to the Pelicans, while Milwaukee pulled off an impressive upset last night in a 108-101 overtime win at home against the Hawks. This is also looks like a lot of points given Charlotte is a mere 1-8 in their last 9 overall. 

The key thing to keep in mind with the Hornets lackluster play of late, is 6 of their last 9 have come on the road, where they are just 4-14 on the season. They did lose twice at home during this stretch, but that was against two of the best teams in the west in the Thunder and Clippers. The lone win was a dominant 107-84 win at home against the Hawks on Wednesday. 

Not only is Charlotte going to be the more motivated team in this one, given they are coming off a loss and the Bucks are off a win, but this is an absolutely awful spot for Milwaukee.

It would be hard enough for the Bucks to bounce back on no rest on the road after an overtime win at home against a top level team, but it becomes even harder when factor in this will be their 4th game in 5 nights, arguably the worst scheduling spot you can find yourself in the NBA, especially when that 5th game comes on the road. Adding to this is the fact that Milwaukee is just 5-18 on the road this season, losing by an average of 9.6 ppg. 

It's also worth noting that the Hornets won 87-82 at home in the last meeting in the series, as underdogs revenging a road loss to an opponent who are playing their 4th game in 5 days are just 28-59 (32%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Charlotte! 

3* NCAAB Situational No Doubt ATS Blowout on Vanderbilt - 

Vanderbilt has got off to a disappointing 1-3 start to conference play, but were able to right the ship last time out with a 75-57 blowout win at home over Auburn. This might seem like a big number for them to be laying given their struggles to start SEC play, but the fact of the matter is this is a game the Commodores can't afford to lose, especially considering their next two are on the road. I look for Vanderbilt to treat this as a must-win situation. 

That should be more than enough to win here and cover the spread against Alabama. The fact that the Crimson Tide are a double-digit dog after just destroying previously undefeated South Carolina 73-50 at home as a 4-point dog, really says a lot about what the oddsmakers think of this team.

Keep in mind this is a team that lost by 8 on the road against an average Ole Miss team and 16 at home to Kentucky in their first two conference games. Alabama is also historically not a great road team and we have seen them lose badly away from home on multiple occasions this year, including a 32-point loss at Dayton and 19-point defeat to Xavier on a neutral setting.

Crimson Tide have been a great team to fade off a home win, as they are just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 off a victory on their home floor. They are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win by more than 20-points. Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games and a dominant 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games as a favorite of 10 or more points. Take Vanderbilt! 

5* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgetown +

I believe we are getting exceptional value here on the Hoyas as a decently priced home dog against No. 6 Villanova. The Wildcats are certainly overvalued here being ranked inside the Top 10 and riding a 6 game winning streak that just saw them knock off Marquette at home 83-68. 

The key thing to keep in mind with Villanova's latest run, is they have only played 2 games on the road during this stretch. While they beat Creighton 85-71, that's not a great Bluejays team. The other road game was much closer, as they barely edged out a 60-55 win at Butler. If Villanova is vulnerable, it's definitely on the road. 

Georgetown enters this game having won 5 of their last 6, with 4 of the 5 wins coming inside conference play. The Hoyas lone loss came at Creighton, but that's not a big surprise. This team has consistently played up or down to their competition. Georgetown has wins over the likes of Wisconsin and Syracuse and lost by just 4-points on the road at Maryland and 2-points on a neutral court against Duke. 

Villanova has won 20 straight against conference opponents, but keep in mind the last time they lost came on this same floor nearly a year ago, as the Hoyas demolished Villanova 78-58 on Jan. 19 of last year. Given how big of a rivalry this is and how well Georgetown has played against elite competition this year, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Hoyas won this game outright. 

Hoyas are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games in excellent teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field on offense and holding opponents to 42% or worse. Take Georgetown! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Heat/Nuggets UNDER

This game has a defensive battle written all over it. Miami is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, allowing just 95.5 ppg. Their effort on that side of the ball doesn't lapse on the road. In fact, they actually allow only 95.1 ppg away from home, which has resulted in 12 of their 16 road games this season going under the total. 

The Heat are going to have to rely on their defense over the next few games with starting point guard Goran Dragic out with an injured calf. This will be the 2nd straight game he's missed and in his first game out the Heat managed just 90 points against the Clippers. Miami ranks 29th of 30 teams in pace at 94.5 and that isn't going to get better with Dragic out. 

Denver comes into this game off a high-scoring affair in their 112-110 upset win at home against the Warriors. Any game involving the Warriors is going to be high-scoring given their offensive weapons and how fast they like to play (rank 2nd in pace).

The key thing to keep in mind is that prior to that game against Golden State, Denver previous 3 games were all very low-scoring. They combined for just 187 in a 95-92 win at home against the Hornets, 175 in 84-91 loss at Memphis and 152 in 78-74 win at Minnesota. 

UNDER is 13-2 in Miami's 15 games over the last 2 seasons after allowing 100 or more in their previous 2 games (haven't allowed 100+ in 3 straight all season). UNDER is also 11-1 in their last 12 as a road favorite of 3 points or less and 12-3 in their last 15 against the Western Conference. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Pelicans -

The Hornets come into this game off an impressive 107-84 blowout win at home over the Hawks, which I believe has Charlotte getting way too much respect here as a small road dog against the Pelicans. What can't get overlooked is just how bad Charlotte has been on the road. The Hornets are 4-13 away from home overall and just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games. 

New Orleans has been a major disappointment this season so far, but the Pelicans were able to finish up their 3-game road trip with a 109-97 win at Sacramento as a 6.5-point underdog. I'm aware the Pelicans will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, but this has actually been a profitable spot to back New Orleans. They are 13-4 ATS over the last 2 seasons in home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. 

It's also important to note that the Hornets have struggled to cover in games that are expected to be high-scoring, which is definitely the case here with the Pelicans averaging 105.1 ppg and allowing 106.5 ppg at home. Charlotte is a mere 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games with a total of 200 to 209.5.

The Hornets are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a losing home record and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game. Take New Orleans! 

5* Hawks/Bucks NBA ATS Vegas Insider on Hawks -

Atlanta comes into this game off an embarrassing 84-107 loss at Charlotte on Wednesday, which followed one of their best efforts of the season in a 120-105 win against the Bulls last Saturday. With home games against the Nets and Magic on deck, we should get a max effort here from the Hawks as they will be extremely motivated to make a statement after how poorly they played against the Hornets. 

I look for them to have no problem getting a win here against the Bucks, who are just 6-10 in their last 16 games. While Milwaukee had yesterday off, this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights, as well as their 4th in the last 6 days. Atlanta on the other hand is well-rested, as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days. 

It's also important to note that the Hawks have owned the Bucks of late. Atlanta is 13-2 against Milwaukee over the last 15 meetings and have won 6 straight at the Bradley Center, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in the process. 

The Hawks are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 road games with a total 200 to 209.5 and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 off an upset loss as a favorite. WE also find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Bucks. Teams off a road cover where they lost outright as an underdog against an opponent off a loss by 10 or more as a road favorite are 14-44 (24%) ATS since 1996. Take Atlanta! 

4* Oregon/Utah Pac-12 ATS Vegas Insider on Utah - 

The Utes are showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite against the Ducks. Utah is a perfect 8-0 at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by more than 25 ppg. A big reason the Utes are showing value here is they are just 1-2 to start out conference play, but all 3 of those games have come on the road.

Oregon on the other hand is off to a strong 2-1 start to league play and come in off an impressive 71-58 win at home over Stanford, which followed a 68-65 home victory against Cal. However, the Ducks were embarrassed in their only conference road game, losing 57-70 as a 2-point favorite at in-state rival Oregon State. Overall, Oregon's only other true road game came at Boise State, which they also lost. 

The Ducks are a mere 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after playing 2 straight games at home and 5-15 ATS in the month of January over the last 3 seasons. Oregon is also 0-6 ATS in the last 2 seasons against dominant rebounding teams, who are outrebounding opponents by 7+ boards/game. The Utes are 32-13 ATS in their last 45 home games after losing 2 of their last 3, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after allowing less than 60 points and a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games in the month of January. Take Utah! 

5* Cavs/Spurs NBA No Limit Top Play on UNDER

Two of the NBA's best will square off tonight in a prime time showdown on TNT. Cleveland comes into this game having won 8 straight and 14 of their last 16 overall. San Antonio has won 9 straight and 16 of their last 17 overall. This is a statement game for both teams and I expect to see near playoff intensity in this one. I believe it's going to lead to a defensive battle and a much lower-scoring game than most would expect. 

It reminds me a lot of the Christmas Day matchup between the the Cavs and Warriors. Cleveland lost that game at Golden State 83-89 for a combined total of 172 points. Well below the posted total for the game of 207.5. San Antonio is even a better defensive team than than the Warriors. The Spurs are allowing 93.5 points per 100 possessions which is the best mark in more than a decade. Cleveland ranks 5th in defensive efficiency, allowing just 99.4 points per 100 possessions. 

UNDER is 31-17 in the Cavaliers last 48 games against high-scoring teams averaging 103+ points/game 19-9 in their last 28 as a dog and 5-1 in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take the UNDER! 

5* PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Colorado -

Colorado comes in this game having lost 3 of their last 4, including 2 of their first 3 conference games. Oregon State on the other hand has won 5 of their last 6 and are 2-1 in the Pac-12 with wins over Oregon and Cal. The key thing to keep in mind with the Beavers and their strong start to conference play, is they have played all 3 conference games at home. 

Oregon State hasn't played a true road games since the middle of November and their two road games haven't exactly been challenging against Rice and UC-Santa Barbara. Either way it's created some exceptional value here on Colorado who is 8-1 at home with the only loss being a 2-point defeat to Utah in their last game. Needless to say the Buffaloes are going to come out extremely motivated to avoid a 1-3 start to league play. 

Last year the Buffaloes won 64-58 at home against Oregon State and are 4-1 at home in the last 5 meetings against the Beavers. Oregon State is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. It's also worth noting that they were just 1-9 ATS in conference road games last year, losing by an average of 13.1 ppg. Take Colorado! 

4* S Carolina/Alabama NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Alabama +

We are seeing some great value here on Alabama as a home dog against South Carolina. The Gamecocks have opened up the season 15-0 with a ridiculous 10-1 record ATS. Needless to say it has South Carolina way overvalued here against the Crimson Tide.

Alabama has a big time home court advantage and are 5-1 at home this season with the only loss coming to Kentucky. The Crimson Tide are a proven commodity with non-conference wins over Wichita State, Notre Dame and Clemson. They are also going to come out extremely motivated after opening up conference play with back-to-back losses. It's also worth noting that Alabama is 8-1 SU at home in their last 9 meetings against South Carolina. 

Crimson Tide are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 off a conference loss and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when coming off a conference home loss. South Carolina on the other hand is a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a win by 6 points or less, as they were fortunate to escape with a 69-65 win at home against Vanderbilt in their last contest. Take Alabama! 

3* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Ole Miss +

It's well known that LSU has one of the best individual players in college basketball in Ben Simmons and that has had the Tigers consistently overvalued by the books. LSU gets treated like an elite team, but the Tigers are just 9-6 overall. They followed up their big win against Kentucky with a loss at Florida and have struggled against similar teams to what they will face tonight in Ole Miss. 

The Rebels are quietly playing really good basketball. Ole Miss has opened up 2-1 in conference play with solid wins at home over Alabama and Georgia in their last two and are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall. The Rebels are 5-3 on the road this season and have a history of covering the number when away from home. Ole Miss is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games when they come in having won 4 or 5 of their last 6. 

The Rebels also have performed well against similar type teams to LSU. They are 21-7 ATS after 15+ games against teams who average 77+ points/game and 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games against teams who take good care of the basketball (14 or less turnovers/game). Take Ole Miss! 

4* Pacers/Celtics NBA ATS Vegas Insider on Celtics -

The Celtics suffered yet another crushing loss last night, losing 114-120 at New York. Boston has now lost 4 straight and 6 of their last 7 overall. This recent poor stretch has created some exceptional value here on the Celtics as a small home favorite against the Pacers. Indiana has a strong 22-16 record overall, but are just 9-11 on the road. 

Not only is Boston going to be extremely motivated to put an end to their losing streak, but the Celtics will be playing with double-revenge from two earlier losses this season to the Pacers. The last loss in the series came at home and that sets up a favorable spot to back Boston, as they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when revenging a loss as a home favorite. 

Boston is also a team you can feel confident backing when playing on limited rest. The Celtics are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 27-10 ATS in their last 37 when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. 

Indiana also played last night, but they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when playing on no rest, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 off a SU win by more than 10 points and 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games after 5 straight games holding opponents to 42% or worse shooting from the field. Take Boston! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Knicks/Nets UNDER

These two teams combined for 199 points in a 108-91 win by the Knicks at at home back on 12/4. The total for that game was just 192.5. You would expect to see a bigger total in the rematch, but it's actually lower and for good reason. Brooklyn is not the same offensive team as they were back in early December, as they have lost starting point guard Jarrett Jack. His loss has been evident of late, as the Nets are averaging just 82.6 ppg over their last 5. 

New York is coming off a high-scoring game last night in a 120-114 win at home against the Celtics. That actually favors the under, with the Knicks playing on the road with no rest. You also have to keep in mind Boston plays at one of the fastest paces of any team in the NBA. Add in the possibility that Carmelo Anthony won't play or will be hobbled if he does, and neither offense figures to do a lot in this game. This is also a big rivalry, which is going to have both teams playing hard defensively. 

UNDER is 11-2 in the Nets last 13 when they come in having failed to cover in 3 or more consecutive games and 13-3 in their last 16 after a game where they made 20% or less of their 3-point shots. UNDER is also 23-11 in the Knicks last 34 against a team with a losing record and 11-5 in their last 16 after scoring 100+ in their last game. Take the UNDER! 

4* Cavs/Mavs NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Mavs +

The Mavericks are showing huge value here as a decently priced home underdog. Dallas comes into this game having won 7 of their last 10 and are a solid 11-6 on their home floor this season. Cleveland is simply getting way too much respect here due to having won 7 straight. While the Mavericks aren't viewed as a push over, it's going to be hard for the Cavaliers to not look ahead to Thursday's big showdown at San Antonio on TNT, where they will take their crack at snapping the Spurs perfect 22-0 home record. 

One of the reasons Dallas has been playing well of late, is Dirk Nowitzki is playing at a high level. The 37-year-old put up 29 in their last game against the Timberwolves and has made 12 of 29 from long distance over his last 4. It's also worth nothing that Dallas has won 8 of the last 10 in the series. 

Cleveland is just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points, while the Mavericks are 8-1 ATS this season when listed as a 3.5 to 9.5 point underdog. Take Dallas! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Kansas State -

Kansas State is being way undervalued at home due to the fact that they come into this game off 3 straight losses, all of which have come inside conference play. Needless to say the Wildcats are going to be extremely motivated to get their first conference win. While Kansas State is going to lay everything they have into this game, Texas Tech could find it hard to get up for this matchup. The Red Raiders just played their hearts out in back-to-back games against Iowa State and Kansas with the 10-point home loss to the Jayhawks coming just 3 days ago. 

The thing to keep in mind with Kansas State's poor start to conference play, two of their defeats came on the road to Texas and Oklahoma. The other a 4-point home loss to currently No. 10 ranked West Virginia. Adding to this is the fact that the Wildcats two non-conference losses both came against elite teams, losing on a neutral court to North Carolina and at Texas A&M. Add it up and 4 of their 5 defeats have come against teams currently ranked inside the Top 15. 

Wildcats are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games after playing a road game where both teams scored 75 or more points, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 at home. Texas Tech on the other hand is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a double-digit loss at home. Take Kansas State! 

5* ACC Game of the Month on Virginia -

The Cavaliers are showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite. Virginia is a perfect 7-0 at home this season, extending their home winning streak to 13. They have also won 33 of their last 34 at John Paul Jones Arena. While the Hurricanes enter having won 8 straight and are 13-1 overall, their only true road game this season was against Nebraska, which they only won by 5 points. Keep in mind Nebraska is a bottom feeder in the Big 10. 

Adding even more incentive to this game for Virginia is the fact that they come in off back-to-back losses at Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. The Cavaliers were favored in both of those games and are a dominant 17-6 ATS in their last 23 home games off an upset loss as a favorite, winning by an average of 13.9 ppg. 

We also find a strong system backing the Cavaliers based on their resent road defeats. Home favorites off 2 or more upset losses as a road favorite are 87-42 (67%) ATS since 1997. Take Virginia! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Heat/Warriors UNDER

I believe the books have set this total too high for tonight's matchup between the Heat and Warriors. Only the Jazz play at a slower pace than Miami and the Heat know they have no chance of winning this game if it turns into a shootout. Miami is going to try and slow this game way down and try and grind out a win with their defense, which is giving up just 93.4 ppg on the road and ranks 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

What gets lost in all the attention that surrounds the Warriors and their ability to light up the scoreboard, is the fact that they are a very good defensive team. Golden State only allows 96.9 ppg at home and are 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. I look for that defense to make life miserable for a Miami offense that only averages 93.0 ppg on the road. 

UNDER is 11-1 in the Warriors last 12 home games after playing 2 consecutive games as a road favorite and 12-3 in their last 15 home games off a road win by 10 or more points. UNDER is also 14-4 in Miami's last 18 after a game where they failed to cover, 11-3 in their 14 road games this season and 8-0 in in their last 8 road games with a total of 200 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Knicks UNDER 

The books have set the total way too high for Sunday's showdown between the Bucks and Knicks. Neither of these teams are great offensively. Milwaukee comes in averaging just 97.9 ppg (only 96.1 ppg on the road) and New York is only marginally better at 98.2 ppg. Both teams also rank in the bottom 10 of the league in pace, so the tempo here will greatly favor the UNDER. 

These two teams are also very familiar with one another, as this will be the 4th meeting between them this season. Each of the last 2 in the series finished below the total set for this matchup and 5 of the last 6 have stayed under the mark overall. 

UNDER is 21-10 in Milwaukee's last 31 games with a total of 200 to 209.5 and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games played on Sunday. UNDER is also 3-1-1 in the Knicks last 5 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the UNDER! 

3* Ohio St/Indiana NCAAB ATS Annihilator on Ohio St +

Ohio State is showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Hoosiers. While Indiana comes in with an impressive 13-3 record and 3-0 mark in conference play, this is not the same caliber a team compared to just a week ago. That's because the Hoosiers recently lost second leading scorer James Blackmon Jr. You could see the impact of his loss in the near defeat at home against Wisconsin (59-58). 

Ohio State is flying under the radar right now, largely due to a poor start to the year, which saw them open 2-4 with 4 straight losses. That included defeats to the likes of Texas-Arlington and Louisiana Tech. They have since gone 9-1 with their only loss at UConn and they are currently riding a 7-game winning streak and fresh off an impressive 65-56 win at Northwestern, which is better win than people think. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Ohio State won this game outright.

Buckeyes are 34-19 ATS in their last 54 off an upset win as an underdog and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Adding to this is a strong system. Home favorites in a game involving 2 strong teams that are outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game are just 52-96 (35%) ATS after scoring 60 or less over the last 5 seasons. Take Ohio State!  

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Florida St +

The Seminoles are showing some great value here as a near double-digit dog against the Hurricanes. That value is a result of Florida State having lost their last two games at Clemson and at home to North Carolina. This is a very young and talented team that is not only capable of covering this big spread, but beating Miami outright. 

The Hurricanes are an impressive 12-1 on the season, which is also playing into this inflated line. The thing that you have to keep in mind with Miami's strong start, is the schedule hasn't been all that challenging. Their lone loss came at home to Northeastern as a 16-point favorite, which is a good indicator that this is not an elite team. Last year Miami only won 81-77 as a 8.5-point home favorite and this is a far superior Florida State team than the one they fielded a year ago. 

Seminoles are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 off a conference home loss and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 with a total set at 150 to 159.5 points. Miami is 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games off a conference win by 10 or more points and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after scoring 30 points or less in the 1st half of 2 straight games. Take Florida State!

4* Hornets/Clippers NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Clippers -

The Clippers are quietly going about their business in impressive fashion, despite not having the services of star forward Blake Griffin. LA has won 7 straight and covered the spread in each of their last 6. What really stands out is that 6 of the 7 during their winning streak have come on the road. The lone home game was a 31-point rout of the 76ers.

I don't see the Clippers slowing down at home against a struggling Hornets team that has lost 5 straight and are just 3-10 in their last 13 games overall. Charlotte has also lost 6 straight on the road with all 6 coming by at least 7 points (5 by 9 or more). Another huge factor here is the success that the Clippers have had in this series. LA has won 3 straight and 9 of 10 overall with the only loss coming in Charlotte. 

Hornets are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 with a total set at 200 to 209.5 points, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game. Clippers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100+ points. Take Los Angeles! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Blowout on Iowa St - 

The Cyclones come into this game off a 76-69 win at home against Texas Tech, but failed to cover as an 11-point favorite. Baylor on the other hand enters off a 79-62 blowout win at home over Oklahoma State as a 9-point favorite. I believe this has created some exceptional value on Iowa State in a huge revenge spot. 

Last year the Cyclones lost both meetings against the Bears, falling 73-74 at Baylor and 70-79 at home. Iowa State brought back most of the core players from last year and you can be assured this is a game they have had circled on the calendar. Baylor has played well at home, but have really struggled on the road losing by 7 at Oregon, 19 at Texas A&M and 28 at Kansas (only 3 true road games). Iowa State has one of the best homecourt advantages in college basketball and I fully expect them to win this game going away. 

Cyclones are 11-4-1 ATS in last 16 vs team that's won more than 60% of their games, 5-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games off a home win, while Baylor is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and a mere 0-6 ATS off a home win by 10 or more points. Take Iowa State! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Virginia -

Virginia comes into this game off a 68-70 upset loss at in-state rival Virginia Tech as a 12.5-point favorite. Needless to say the Cavaliers are going to be pissed off from that performance and will be out to make a statement in a huge rebound spot against Georgia Tech, a team they destroyed in recent years. Virginia won 64-45 at Georgia Tech in 2014 and last year crushed the Yellow Jackets 57-28 at home. 

Any time you get an elite team like the Cavaliers off an upset loss, chances are they are going to come back with one of their best efforts in their next game. In an earlier upset loss at George Washington, Virginia followed it up with a 82-57 win on a neutral site against Bradley. Georgia Tech is a quality team, but not on the same level as the Cavaliers. Keep in mind this is a team that has lost badly to the likes of Villanova (52-69) and Georgia (61-75). They are 8-1 at home, but that's due to an easy schedule. 

The Cavaliers are 14-4 ATS in the month of January over the last 3 seasons, 14-5 ATS in their last 19 road games after failing to cover the spread in their last game and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a road loss. Take Virginia! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Heat/Suns UNDER

I look for both teams to bring the defensive intensity in this one. Miami is going to be extremely motivated off an ugly 90-98 loss at home to the Knicks as a 7.5-point favorite. The Heat thought they could just show up and get a win an it backed fired. Look for them to really focus in on the defensive end, where they have been dominant this season, allowing just 94.7 ppg. Adding to that, is the fact that Miami only gives up 92.8 ppg on the road. 

Phoenix isn't a great defensive team and a lot of that has to do with effort. Given their bad blood with Miami point guard Goran Dragic, who didn't exactly leave Phoenix on good terms and this will be his first game back. While effort can only get you so far, Miami is not a good offensive team and like to slow down the pace, so I'm not expecting a huge night offensively from them. 

UNDER is 14-3 in the Heat's last 17 after a game they failed to cover the spread and 10-2 in their last 12 road games. UNDER is also 7-1-1 in the Suns last 8 against a team with a winning record and 20-6 in their last 26 off a SU win. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational ATS Blowout on Cavaliers -

This might seem like a big number to lay on the Cavaliers on the road, but I look for Cleveland to make easy work of the Timberwolves in tonight's showdown on ESPN. Whenever LeBron James is involved in a nationally televised game, more times than not he brings his best regardless of the opponent. That's a big problem for Minnesota, as they simply don't have the talent to keep this competitive over 48 minutes. 

With Kyrie Irving getting more and more comfortable and starting to play up to his potential, Cleveland has the looks of a team that is ready to go on a serious run to start out 2016. The Cavaliers are 7-4-1 ATS in their last 12 games and were a bad beat away from being 8-3-1, as they should have covered last time out against the Wizards. 

Minnesota is a mere 1-8 in their last 9 games and 6 of those 8 losses have come by double-digits. The Timberwolves also lost badly in both meetings against the Cavs last year, losing 104-125 at Cleveland and 90-106 at home. Minnesota is just 3-15 ATS in their 18 home games this season and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after playing a game as a favorite. Take Cleveland! 

5* Mavs/Bucks NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bucks +

I really like the value we are getting with the Bucks at basically a pick'em at home against the Mavericks. Dallas will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and second straight on the road. I look for them to come out sluggish against Milwaukee. The Mavericks followed up a double-overtime game against the Kings on Tuesday with a hard fought 100-91 win at New Orleans and I just don't see the energy being there in this one. 

Milwaukee on the other hand is going to come out motivated to get a win after a couple of ugly losses to the Spurs (98-123) and Bulls (106-117) in their last 2 games. The Bucks will also be out for revenge from a 93-103 loss at Dallas on 12/28. 

Bucks are 35-19 ATS in their last 54 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after 2 or more consecutive losses. Dallas on the other hand is just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games against a team with a winning home record and 6-13 ATS in their last 19 against the Eastern Conference. Take Milwaukee! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Jazz/Rockets OVER

While the Rockets were held to just 93 points at Utah in their last game, it marked only the 3rd time in their last 21 games where they failed to score at least 100 points. I look for Houston to bounce back in a big way on the offensive end against the Jazz tonight, as Utah simply won't have the energy defensively to slow them down. 

Utah is playing short-handed with Derrick Favors, Alec Burks, Rudy Gobert and Dante Exum all out with injuries and that really makes it tough on them, as they will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set after giving up 123 to the Spurs last night. Utah will have no choice but to play an up-tempo game with the Rockets in this one and while their limited offensively, Houston comes in allowing 105.8 ppg. 

OVER is 10-4 in the Rockets last 14 home games against a team with a losing road record, 8-2 in their last 10 off a win by 6 points or less, 3-0 this season when playing with 2 days of rest and 3-0 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Take the OVER!  

5* Cincinnati/SMU NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Cincinnati +

The Mustangs come into this game with a perfect 13-0 record and are overvalued because of it. SMU recently lost a key piece of their team, as guard Keith Frazier left the team prior to Saturday's game against South Florida. While the Mustangs won the game 72-58, they came no where close to covering the spread as a 25-point favorite. 

I think Frazier's departure is not only going to hurt them on the floor, but also have a negative impact mentally on this team. Even if he was still with the team, this is a lot of points to be giving a talented Cincinnati team. The Bearcats come in at 11-4, but have 3 losses by 7 points or less, including 2 by just 2-points to the likes of Butler and Iowa State. 

Cincinnati has all 5 starters back from last year's team that won both meetings against the Mustangs. The Bearcats won 56-50 at home as a 1-point dog and 62-54 at SMU as a 6.5-point dog.  Needless to say, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Cincinnati won this game outright. 

SMU is just 12-28 ATS in their last 40 home games against strong offensive teams that are scoring 77+ points/game and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. Bearcats are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games after playing 3 straight at home and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games overall. Take Cincinnati!  

3* Ohio St/Northwestern ATS Main Event on Northwestern -

The simple fact that Northwestern is favored in this game really says a lot about how the oddsmakers feel about these two teams. The Wildcats have opened up 13-2 with their only 2 losses coming against elite teams in North Carolina and Maryland. This Northwestern team is the real deal and I look for them to take down the Buckeyes on their home floor tonight. The Wildcats are 9-1 at home this season. 

Keep in mind that Northwestern has played Ohio State tough at home in recent meetings, despite losing each of the last 4 meetings. All 4 of those defeats were by 10 points or less with 3 coming by 2-points or fewer. This is the best Wildcats team during this stretch and arguably the worst team the Buckeyes have fielded over the 5 year period. Ohio State has a big win over Kentucky, but lost by 20 in their only true road game against Connecticut and struggled to put away Illinois at home in their last contest, escaping with a 75-73 win. 

Buckeyes are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 road games win they come in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 when listed with a line of +3 to -3. Wildcats on the other hand are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 after playing their previous game at home and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a double-digit home loss. Take Northwestern! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Nuggets/Wolves OVER 

I'm expecting a shootout in Minnesota tonight between the Nuggets and Timberwolves. These two teams have played twice in the last month. They combined for 219 points at Denver on 12/11 and then 212 at Minnesota on 12/15. Given how these two teams like to get up and down the floor and the little effort they give defensively, I see no reason why this game won't finish with 210+ points. 

Denver is scoring 103.2 ppg and giving up 109.6 ppg over their last 5, while Minnesota is scoring 99.7 ppg and allowing 102.9 ppg on the season. OVER is 13-4 in the Nuggets last 17 with a total of 200 to 209.5 points and 16-6 in their last 22 against bad defensive teams that are allowing 99+ points/game. OVER is also 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams in Minnesota. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Southwest Division GAME OF THE MONTH on Pelicans -

The perception here is that the Mavericks will be out for revenge from a 98-105 home loss to the Pelicans on Saturday, but the reality is that Dallas likely won't have anything left in the tank for this matchup.

The Mavericks just played a grueling double-overtime game against the Kings last night, which saw the two teams combined for 233 points. Not only is Dallas in a horrible back-to-back spot on the road, but this is also their 4th game in the last 6 days. 

New Orleans on the other hand is playing on 3 days rest and this will be just their 2nd game in the last 6 days. Having just beat the Mavericks isn't going to have the Pelicans coming into this game over-confident, which is normally where the revenge angle comes into play. New Orleans can't afford to take any games off, as they have the 3rd worst record in the Western Conference. 

Dallas is just 23-35 ATS in their last 58 after playing a game where both teams combined for 205 or more points, while the Pelicans are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference. Take New Orleans!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Vegas Insider on Pacers -

While Orlando has been one of the big surprises early on this season, the Magic come into this game in a major slump. Orlando has lost 3 straight and haven't been competitive in any of the defeats, losing by 12 at Washington, 25 at Cleveland and 26 at Detroit. A big reason for that is the absence of starting point guard Elfrid Payton, who won't be in action again tonight. Keep in mind that top backup C.J. Watson is also out with an injury, leaving Orlando without a true point guard. It has a lot to do with their offense only scoring 91, 79 and 89 points in their last 3 games. 

While the Pacers have dropped 3 of their last 4, they could easily be riding a lengthy winning streak. All 3 losses come by 4-points or less and two of those were on the road against two of the top Eastern Conference teams in the Bulls and Heat. With Paul George back to playing at an elite level (31.7 ppg over last 3), I just don't see Orlando being able to keep pace offensively with the Pacers, who are going to come out inspired. 

Indiana has 5 straight and 9 of the last 10 meetings in the series, which alone is enough reason to back the Pacers at basically a pick'em. We also see the Pacers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 against a team with a winning record and 15-4 ATS in their last 19 when coming in having lost 3 of their last 4. Take Indiana! 

4* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Seton Hall +

Villanova comes into this contest off 4 straight blowout wins, defeating Delaware by 30, Penn by 20, Xavier by 31 and Creighton by 14, which has resulted in a drastically inflated line against a talented Seton Hall team that has won 7 straight, which includes a win over Wichita State and 20-point victory at Marquette. 

With a huge road game on deck against Butler and having just played to big games against Xavier and Creighton, I look for Villanova to come out a bit flat against Seton Hall. I still expect the Wildcats to win this game, but I look for it to be much closer than the spread would indicate.

Keep in mind that Seton Hall has been playing lockdown defense of late, allowing just 61.7 ppg and Villanova has had some problems offensively early on. 

Wildcats are just 9-18 ATS in their last 27 after two straight games where they made 50% or more of their shot attempts, while the Pirates are 29-16 ATS in their last 45 road games after playing their last game at home and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus a team with a winning record. Take Seton Hall! 

4* Kings/Mavs NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Mavs -

The Mavericks are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Kings. Dallas is going to be extremely motivated to get back in the win column after losing back-to-back games at Miami (82-106) and at home to the Pelicans (98-105).

Those two losses are a big part in why we are getting a favorable number to back the Mavericks, as well as the fact that the Kings are coming in off two blowout wins over the Suns (142-119) and Thunder (116-104). Beating Phoenix at home isn't nothing to get excited about and their win over Oklahoma City came with Durant sidelined. Big key here is the Kings are just 5-11 on the road this season and are a mere 3-21 in their last 24 meetings with Dallas. 

Sacramento is 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games following a SU win, 8-20 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 60+ points in the first half of their last game and 4-16 ATS in their last 20 off an upset win as an underdog. Mavericks are 11-4 ATS in last 15 off a SU loss, 11-4 ATS last 15 versus Western Conference and 5-1 ATS last 6 home games. Take Dallas! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS No Brainer on Syracuse -

I really like the value we are getting with the Orange as a mere 5-point home favorite against Clemson. Syracuse is being undervalued here due to coming into this game off back-to-back ugly losses on the road to Pittsburgh and Miami, plus the fact that they haven't covered in 3 straight games. 

Clemson was able to pull off a big upset at home in their last game, defeating Florida State 84-75 as a 2-point dog, which followed a cover as a 15.5-point dog at North Carolina. Prior to that they got destroyed by 23 at Georgia. This is also a team that has lost at Minnesota, who is way down this year. With 3 straight huge home games on deck against Louisville, Duke and Miami, this is simply a horrible spot for the Tigers against a highly motivated Orange team. 

Syracuse is 7-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by over 13.0 ppg, while Clemson is 1-4 on the road, getting outscored by nearly 8.0 ppg. Tigers are also 2-13 ATS in their last 15 off an upset win over a conference rival, 3-9 ATS last 12 vs team with a winning record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games on Tuesday nights. Take Syracuse! 

5* SEC Game of the Month on South Carolina -

South Carolina has quietly put together a perfect 13-0 start to the 2015-16 season and I look for them to be extremely motivated when they take the floor for their SEC opener tonight against Auburn. Keep in mind that the Gamecocks went 9-3 in non-conference play last year and ended up starting out just 1-6 in SEC play, so there's no concern here for me with South Carolina coming in too confident. 

Another huge factor here, is Auburn is missing some key players with injuries. The Tigers will be without 3rd leading scorer T.J. Dunans and could also be without the services of T.J. Lang, who is questionable with a concussion. Dunans is a big loss, as he's one of Auburn's best all-around players, as he averages 12.4 ppg to go with 1.5 steals and 1.3 blocks. It's also worth nothing the Tigers have struggled against quality teams this year. All 5 losses have come by 7 or more, including recent defeats by 18 to Harvard and 12 to Hawaii. 

Gamecocks are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 road games after playing 2 straight games as a home favorite and 6-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons off 3 straight wins by 10 or more points, winning these by an average of 17.4 ppg. Gamecocks are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers/game and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 versus teams who average 77+ points/game. Take South Carolina! 

4* Oklahoma/Kansas NCAAB ATS Vegas Insider on Oklahoma +

Both of these teams come in riding 12-game winning streaks. Oklahoma is 12-0, while the Jayhawks are 12-1 with the only loss coming in the opener against Michigan State. While Kansas has the advantage of playing at home, this is a lot of points to be laying against a Sooners team that is more than capable of going into Lawrence and pulling off the upset. 

You could actually argue that Oklahoma has played the tougher schedule to this point and they have really been impressive against elite teams. The Sooners have a beat Wisconsin by 17, Villanova by 23, Creighton by 13, Washington State by 26 and most recently held on for a 87-83 win at home against a very good Iowa State team. 

Each of the last 5 meetings in the series have been decided by 8-points or less, so you can really see the value we are getting here with the Sooners. Kansas is also a team that is consistently overvalued in conference play, as they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Big 12 games. We also see that the Sooners are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 against elite teams that are shooting 45% or better from the field and holding opponents to 42% or worse. Take Oklahoma! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Magic/Pistons UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring affair tonight between the Pistons and Magic. Both of these teams are going to be hungry for a win after a poor stretch. Detroit has lost 4 of 5, while the Magic have dropped 2 straight. Both of these teams can get after it defensively when they want. Orlando only allows 98.7 ppg and the Pistons are giving up just 97.7 ppg. 

A huge key here is that both teams will either be without their starting point guard or have them at less than 100%. Orlando's Elfrid Payton is questionable with an ankle injury that kept him from practicing Sunday and keep in mind that backup C.J. Watson is out indefinitely with a calf injury. Detroit's Reggie Jackson is also questionable with an ankle injury and he's the one guy this offense can't afford to lost. Jackson leads the team with 19.9 ppg and 6.4 apg. 

UNDER is 20-8 in Orlando's last 28 road games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 and 21-9 in their last 30 road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days. UNDER is also 5-2 in the Pistons last 7 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 4-1 in their last 5 against the Southeast. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month on Celtics -

The Celtics will be out for revenge against the Nets, as they just lost at home to Brooklyn 97-100 in their last game. This came on the heels of an ugly 104-112 home loss to the Lakers. Needless to say we can expect a max effort here from Boston in this spot. The same can't be said for the Nets, who also find themselves in a tough spot playing their first game without starting point guard Jarrett Jack, who was lost for the season with a torn ACL in the win over Boston. 

Brooklyn hasn't won consecutive games in almost a month (12/8 and 12/10) and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Boston on the other hand is a team that has thrived on the road. The Celtics are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games. They are also 16-4 ATS in their last 20 road games when playing with double-revenge and 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games after allowing 100 or more points in 2 straight games. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are outscoring opponents on average by 3+ points/game are 48-19 (72%) ATS since 1996 after allowing 55 or more points in the 1st half of 2 straight games. Take Boston! 

4* Utah/Cal NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Cal -

The Golden Bears are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Utes. While Utah is the only team that's currently ranked in this matchup, Cal is every bit as talented as the Utes and won't be long before they are mainstays in the Top 25.

The Golden Bears are a perfect 10-0 on their home floor this season and just made easy work of a very good Colorado team by 14-points in their Pac-12 opener. Utah on the other hand lost at Stanford as a 5-point road favorite. This will now be the Utes second straight road game in a span of just 3 days. That's not an easy task to overcome, especially against a really good team like Cal. 

Golden Bears are 26-13 ATS in their last 39 home games when playing on their 3rd game in a week and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after allowing 65 points or less in 3 straight games. Utah on the other hand is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Cal! 

3* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Raptors -

These two teams recently played in Chicago, which the Bulls won 104-97. That's set up some great value here on the Raptors in a big revenge spot on their home floor. These two teams have pretty significant home/away splits. Toronto is 11-5 at home compared to 10-8 on the road. Chicago is 14-5 at home compared to just 5-7 on the road. Raptors rebounded with back-to-back home wins over the Wizards and Hornets after their loss to Chicago and will be extremely motivated to finish off their homestand with another victory, as they get ready to play 5 straight on the road. 

Bulls are a mere 1-10 ATS in their last 11 after covering the spread in their previous game, 4-13 ATS in their last 17 off a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Raptors are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of Chicago. Teams who average 83 or more shots/game that have held their opponent to 39% or less from the field in 2 straight games are just 20-51 (28%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Toronto! 

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Pacers -

This is a great spot to back the Pacers, as they are going to come out extremely motivated off back-to-back losses, including a 116-120 loss at home to the Bucks in their last contest. That was just the 5th home loss for Indiana on the season, as they are 11-5 at home.

Detroit comes in off an easy wi at home against the Timberwolves, but that's not say much given how poorly Minnesota has been playing. Prior to that the Pistons had dropped 3 straight and I think they are still adjusting to life with Brandon Jennings back from injury. Detroit is just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. 

Pacers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 against a team with a winning record, 18-6 ATS in their last 24 against the Eastern Conference and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against division opponents. Pacers are also 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games against teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents. Take Indiana! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Heavy Hitter on Marquette +

The Golden Eagles are showing some great value here as a decently priced road dog against Georgetown. Marquette was embarrassed on their home floor 63-83 by Seton Hall in their last contest, snapping a 9-game winning streak. The Hoyas on the other hand won rather convincingly in a 70-58 victory at DePaul as a 4-point favorite.

I believe we are seeing a big overreaction here with this line due to the last time these two teams took the floor. Keep in mind that the Golden Eagles had a similar poor performance at home in a 61-89 loss to Iowa earlier this season and they responded with wins over LSU and Arizona State on a neutral court in their next two games. 

Georgetown was undervalued against a DePaul team that wasn't as good as their record, so I wouldn't read too much into that easy win and cover. Keep in mind this team had failed to cover each of their previous 4. They also lost back-to-back home games against the likes of Monmouth and UNC-Asheville. 

Hoyas are a mere 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games when coming off a cover and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after playing 4 straight games as a favorite. The Golden Eagles are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 when they come in having won 2 of their last 3. Take Marquette! 

4* Clippers/Pelicans NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Pelicans -

New Orleans is showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Clippers. While Los Angels comes in having won 4 straight and covered each of their last 3, this is a horrible scheduling spot for the Clippers. Los Angeles will not only be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road after playing last night in Charlotte, but this will be the Clippers 5th road game in the last 7 days. With it being New Year's Eve and LA scheduled to return home after this game, I don't see the Clippers being interested at all in playing this contest. 

Pelicans on the other hand are a team that's desperate to turn their season around and simply can't afford to drop any games like this at home, especially when they have such a big advantage in rest. New Orleans has had 2 days off leading up to this game and will be just their 2nd game in 5 days overall. Keep in mind the Clippers are also playing without All-Star Blake Griffin. 

The Clippers and Hornets combined for 239 points last night and it was the 3rd straight game in which LA has scored at least 100 points. The Clippers are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 off a game where 225 or more combined points were scored and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 or more in 3 straight games. Take New Orleans! 

3* Xavier/Villanova Early Bird NCAAB ATS Annihilator on Villanova - 

Villanova has owned the Big East the past two seasons and they aren't about to just hand it over to the likes of Xavier or Butler. I look for the Wildcats to come out and make a statement on their home floor against the undefeated Musketeers. 

Villanova is 10-2 with their only two losses coming against Oklahoma on a neutral floor and at Virginia. Those are two of the elite teams in college basketball right now. Xavier has some quality wins, but most of their damage has come at home. They were very fortunate to win 78-70 at Wake Forest in their last game, as they trailed by as 18 points. 

Villanova is worthy of being a Top 10 team right alongside Xavier and I believe they will be by seasons end. The Wildcats have won and covered 5 straight in this series and are a perfect 7-0 on their home floor this season. Each of the last 3 times they have hosted the Musketeers they have been at least a 8-point favorite. I just think there's too much value here Villanova. 

Wildcats are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 when playing against a team with a winning record, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games against a strong defensive team that is holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field and 31-13 ATS in their last 44 when listed as the favorite. Take Villanova! 

3* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Blazers -

This may seem like a lot of points for the Blazers to be laying at home against the Nuggets, but it's for good reason. Denver is in an absolutely horrible scheduling spot. The Nuggets were going to have a hard enough time bouncing back from last night's home game against the Cavaliers, which they really came out and played hard against the reigning Eastern Conference champs.

Not only do they have to take on Portland on no rest, but they find themselves in the dreaded spot of playing their 6th game in 9 days. On top of that, they have a game against the Warriors on deck, which is a team everyone is looking ahead to on the schedule. I'm not expecting the Nuggets to show any interest at all in playing this game. 

Portland on the other hand is coming in off back-to-back wins, including a 105-76 win at home against the Cavs as a 7.5-point dog and 98-94 win at Sacramento as a 9-point dog. Both wins came without Damian Lillard and there's a good chance he returns tonight, as he almost played in each of the last two. Denver on the other hand doesn't figure to have leading scorer Danilo Gallinari or point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, making it that much harder on them giving the scheduling spot. 

Blazers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a losing road record and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 versus a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. It's also worth noting that they are 10-1 in their last 11 home games against the Nuggets. Take Portland! 

5* Big East Game of the Month on Georgetown - 

We are getting some great value here with the Hoyas as a mere 3-point road favorite against DePaul, as Georgetown is 13-1 against the Blue Demons in the last 14 meetings. The big reason for the low spread here, is this matchup comes on the heels of the Hoyas failing to cover 4 straight games, while DePaul enters off an impressive 82-61 win over George Washington as a 6-point dog. 

The thing to keep in mind with the Blue Demons most recent win, is this is a team that had previously lost 3 straight, including home losses to Arkansas-Little Rock by 22 points and Northwestern by 8 points. DePaul simply caught fire against George Washington, shooting 55.4% from the field. That sets them up in a great spot to fade, as the Blue Demons are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after a game where they shot 55% or better from the field. 

Georgetown has had some problems with inconsistency this season, but their struggles have come against lesser teams. The Hoyas went on the road and only lost by 4-points to Maryland and lost a heartbreaker by 2-points against Duke on a neutral court. They also have a 71-61 win over Wisconsin and 79-72 victory against Syracuse. I have little doubt the Hoyas will come to play in this one and they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning home record. Take Georgetown! 

5* NBA Game of the Month on Rockets -

The Rockets are showing exceptional value here as basically a pick'em at home against the Hawks. Houston has won 7 straight at home, including an impressive 88-84 win over the Spurs in their last home game. The Rockets did lose their last game at New Orleans 108-110, but that was a tough spot on the road with no rest after laying it all on the line against San Antonio on Christmas Day. 

The key here is that loss has created some value with Houston, who comes in well rested with 2 days off before this matchup. Atlanta on the other hand is in a horrible scheduling spot. The Hawks played last night in a hard fought 87-93 loss at Indiana and will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back road set and 6th game overall in the last 10 days. 

Rockets are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 when playing with 2 days of rest, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a game where they failed to cover and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after playing their last game as a road favorite. Hawks are 0-4 ATS in last 4 when playing on no rest. Take Houston! 

3* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Richmond +

The Spiders are showing some great value here as a road dog against the Red Raiders. Texas Tech is 9-1 on the season, but haven't really beat anyone and have greatly benefited from playing 7 of their first 10 games at home (yet to play a true road game). The Red Raiders have been feasting on bad teams, as their last 5 games have come against the likes of Sam Houston State, Tennessee-Martin, South Dakota State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Arkansas-Little Rock. 

It's going to be difficult for the Red Raiders to adjust to the huge upgrade in competition and Richmond is more than capable of winning this game going away. The Spiders have already won outright on the road against Wake Forest 91-82 and have impressive wins over California (94-90) and Northern Iowa (82-67). 

Texas Tech is just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 when they come in off 3 straight easy wins by 10 or more points, while the Spiders are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Richmond! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on 76ers/Jazz UNDER

The books have set the total way too high for this matchup. These two teams played in Philadelphia back on 10/30 and combined for just 170 points in a 18-point win for the Jazz. With the 76ers expected to be without leading scorer Jahlil Okafor and the Raptors playing without 3rd leading scorer Alec Burks and potentially 2nd leading scorer Derrick Favors (questionable), offense is going to be hard to come by for these two teams. 

Adding to this is the fact that Utah plays at the slowest pace of any team in the league, while the 76ers have the least efficient offense in the league. There's also a great chance this game turns into a blowout, which is a good sign for a game to under the total. 

UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in the series (each of the last 3 have seen 172 or less points). UNDER is also 20-7-1 in the 76ers last 28 following a SU win, 20-8 in Utah's last 28 vs the Eastern Conference, 18-8 in their last 26 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 38-17 in the Jazz's last 55 when facing an opponent who scored 100+ points in their last game. Take the UNDER! 

3* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on California -

This may seem like a lot of points for the Golden Bears to be laying at home against Davidson, but I look for California to have no problem covering this number. The Wildcats come in with an impressive 8-2 record, but that's because they have played a very soft schedule in non-conference play. Davidson has faced 2 legit opponents and haven't been able to keep them respectable. The Wildcats lost by 33-points at North Carolina and by 25 on a neutral site against Pittsburgh. I look for a similar type of domination for the Golden Bears at home in this one.

Keep in mind that Davidson is having to travel completely across the country for this matchup, which is only going to make it that much harder on them to keep this close. Cal may not be ranked, but this is a team that's loaded with NBA talent and one that nearly upset Virginia on the road in their last contest. The Golden Bears are a perfect 8-0 at home, outscoring opponents by 18.4 ppg. 

Davidson is 0-6 ATS this season when playing against a team with a winning record and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take California! 

4* Raptors/Bulls NBA TV ATS No Brainer on Bulls -

The Bulls are showing great value here at basically a pick'em at home against the Raptors. Chicago comes into this game off a 111-118 loss at Dallas, a game they let get away late. The Bulls however, have been money when playing at home against top level teams and I look for them to have no problem taking down the Raptors at the United Center tonight. 

Chicago has won 6 of the last 8 meetings in the series, including all 4 meetings last year. A big reason for that is Jimmy Butler, who can cause problems for Toronto leading scorer DeMar DeRozan, who is averaging 26.6 ppg since 12/9. Butler also causes major problems defensively for the Raptors, as he's averaging 23.7 ppg on 62% shooting in his last 3 against Toronto. 

Bulls are 11-5 at home this season and have already racked up wins at home against the likes of Cavaliers, Thunder, Pacers, Spurs, and Clippers. Many of those games were prime time matchups and that's what we have here, as this game will be televised on NBA TV. Take Chicago! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Lakers/Grizzlies UNDER

Memphis will be returning home looking to bounce back from back-to-back road losses against the Wizards and Hornets. The Grizzlies scored just 91 and 92 points in those two games and are averaging just 94.2 ppg over their last 5. Memphis isn't a team that likes to play fast and rarely puts up a lot of points. In fact, they have eclipsed the 100-point mark just 2 times in their last 13 games. 

The Lakers aren't a great defensive team by any means, but are certainly capable of keeping the Grizzlies from scoring enough here to push this over the mark. Offensively, we don't have to worry too much about LA, as they are scoring just 89.0 ppg over their last 5 and Memphis is only giving up 93.8 ppg over their last 5. 

UNDERis 12-4 in the Lakers last 16 when they come in having lost 3 of their last 4 and 13-4 in their last 17 when off a home loss by 10 or more points. UNDER is also 21-4-1 in the Grizzlies last 26 against the Pacific, 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on no rest, 11-3-1 in their last 15 on Sunday and 6-2 in their last 8 off a SU loss. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Situational Over/Under Total No Brainer on Cavs/Blazers UNDER

The Cavaliers have allowed 90 or fewer points in 3 straight games, including a dominant defensive effort in yesterday's 83-89 loss at Golden State, which marked the first time since 2013 that the Warriors failed to score at least 90-points at home. Losing that game is only going to have the Cavaliers that much more motivated to come out and get a win against Portland. 

The Blazers aren't a great defensive team by any means, but we can expect a max effort here from Portland on that side of the ball given they are playing against James and the Cavs. UNDER is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Portland. Under is also 4-0 in the Cavaliers last 4 road games and 40-16 in their last 56 when facing an opponent that allowed 100 or more points in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Dominator on Bulls/Mavs UNDER

The Bulls put an end to their 3-game losing streak with a dominant performance in yesterday's 105-96 win at Oklahoma City as a 10-point underdog. Chicago limited the Thunder to just 38.5% shooting and I look for that defensive intensity to carry over against the Mavericks, who are playing with starting point guard Deron Williams. 

At the same time, I look for Dallas to match the intensity of the Bulls on the defensive side of the floor. Dallas is only giving up 97.2 ppg and holding opponents to just 43.8% shooting against them at home. UNDER is 20-8 in the Bulls last 28 against the Western Conference, 8-1 in their last 9 off a cover and 20-8-1 in their last 29 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game. UNDER is also 7-1 in Mavs last 8 home games and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER! 

5* Cavs/Warriors NBA Christmas Day Vegas Insider on UNDER

These Christmas Day games have become quite the tradition and the NBA does their best to schedule quality games between some of the better teams in the league. With all other sports taking a back seat on Christmas, these games get a lot of public attention and thus the oddsmakers almost always inflate the totals knowing how much the public loves to back the over. 

At the same time, the players know these are some of the most watched games of the regular season and going up against a quality opponent in the spotlight of a nationally televised game almost always brings out their best performance. Whenever a team is motivated that leads to a lot of intensity on the defensive side of the floor. I think it's about as close as we get to a playoff type atmosphere during the regular season. 

All of this points heavily in the direction of the UNDER and this theory has been well proven over the years. Dating back to 2005, games played on Christmas Day have gone UNDER the total at a 67.5% clip (27-13-1). Taking this a step further, if you just look at non-conference games, the UNDER in these matchups has gone 13-3 (81%). As you have probably guessed by now, this is the main reasoning behind taking the UNDER in this game. 

It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 8-3-1 in the Cavs last 12 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also 6-1 in Cleveland's last 7 off a SU, 11-4 in the Warriors last 15 against the Central Division, and 15-7-2 in their last 24 home games. Take the UNDER! 

4* Bulls/Thunder NBA Situational Total Annihilator on UNDER

These Christmas Day games have become quite the tradition and the NBA does their best to schedule quality games between some of the better teams in the league. With all other sports taking a back seat on Christmas, these games get a lot of public attention and thus the oddsmakers almost always inflate the totals knowing how much the public loves to back the over. 

At the same time, the players know these are some of the most watched games of the regular season and going up against a quality opponent in the spotlight of a nationally televised game almost always brings out their best performance. Whenever a team is motivated that leads to a lot of intensity on the defensive side of the floor. I think it's about as close as we get to a playoff type atmosphere during the regular season. 

All of this points heavily in the direction of the UNDER and this theory has been well proven over the years. Dating back to 2005, games played on Christmas Day have gone UNDER the total at a 67.5% clip (27-13-1). Taking this a step further, if you just look at non-conference games, the UNDER in these matchups has gone 13-3 (81%). As you have probably guessed by now, this is the main reasoning behind taking the UNDER in this game. 

It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 10-1 in the Bulls last 11 against the Western Conference, 15-4-2 in their last 21 when playing with 3 or more days of rest and 23-9 in their last 32 road games against a team with a winning home record. UNDER is also also 7-0 in the Thunder's last 7 home games, 8-1 in their last 9 against the Eastern Conference and 20-7-1 in their last 28 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Early Bird Christmas Day Total No Brainer on Pelicans/Heat UNDER

These Christmas Day games have become quite the tradition and the NBA does their best to schedule quality games between some of the better teams in the league. With all other sports taking a back seat on Christmas, these games get a lot of public attention and thus the oddsmakers almost always inflate the totals knowing how much the public loves to back the over.

At the same time, the players know these are some of the most watched games of the regular season and going up against a quality opponent in the spotlight of a nationally televised game almost always brings out their best performance. Whenever a team is motivated that leads to a lot of intensity on the defensive side of the floor. I think it's about as close as we get to a playoff type atmosphere during the regular season.

All of this points heavily in the direction of the UNDER and this theory has been well proven over the years. Dating back to 2005, games played on Christmas Day have gone UNDER the total at a 67.5% clip (27-13-1). Taking this a step further, if you just look at non-conference games, the UNDER in these matchups has gone 13-3 (81%). As you have probably guessed by now, this is the main reasoning behind taking the UNDER in this game. 

It's also worth noting that the UNDER is 9-3 in Miami's last 12 against the Western Conference, 15-5 in their last 20 when playing with 2 days rest and 7-3 in their last 10 games following a SU loss. UDNER is also 35-16-1 in the Pelicans last 52 road games (6-2-1 in last 8 against team with a winning home record) and 5-2 in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on Northern Iowa -

Both of these teams find themselves in a tough spot playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set off a blowout loss last night in Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii. Washington State got throttled by Oklahoma 88-60 and UNI lost 68-52 to Hawaii. I believe the Panthers are the much more equipped team to bounce back on no rest and are also the more battle-tested and talented team in this matchup. 

The Cougars come in with an overall record of 7-3, but they haven't really played anyone outside of Gonzaga at home and Oklahoma last night. They lost both of those games rather convincingly and it's also worth noting they lost at Idaho. This is a team that clearly struggles away from home. Northern Iowa has TWO wins over teams ranked in the Top 5 in the country. They beat No. 1 North Carolina 76-67 and recently knocked off No. 5 Iowa State 81-79. Another thing I like about the Panthers is they respond well off loss. Northern Iowa is 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS off a defeat this season and that includes their win over Iowa State off a 21-point defeat at New Mexico. 

Washington State is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games off a loss and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 neutral court games with a total of 140 to 149.5. The Panthers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral court games and 6-0 in their last 6 road games off a loss by 10 more points. Take Northern Iowa! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Pelicans/Blazers UNDER

These two teams recently played in Portland on 12/14 and combined for 206 points, which I believe has created some exceptional value here on the UNDER in the rematch. Not only are the two teams more familiar with one another having just recently played, but the Blazers have no choice but to try and slow this game down with Damian Lillard out and C.J. McCollum doubtful. 

Not having these two leave Portland without a go-to scorer. Lillard averages a team-high 24.6 ppg and McCollum is right behind at 20.1 ppg. The next best scorer on the Blazers is Al-Farouq Aminu at a mere 10.9 ppg. Making matters even worse, Portland will be playing their 5th straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 days. 

The Pelicans are coming off a 130-point effort in their win at Denver on Sunday, but only averaged 98.8 ppg over their previous 5. With New Orleans coming off a 5-game road trip and Portland in the shape they are in with the injuries to their two best players, I could see the Pelicans struggling to get up for this game, especially considering they have a huge showdown with the Heat on deck Christmas Day. 

Either way New Orleans figures to win here comfortably and that should have this game finishing well below the mark. UNDER is 8-2 in the Blazers last 10 off a cover and 5-1 in their last 6 when playing a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 4-0 in the Pelicans last 4  off a win  and 15-5-1 in their last 21 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Total of the Month on Mavs/Nets UNDER

I'm expecting a very low-scoring game here between the Mavericks and Nets tonight. Dallas won't be looking to push the pace offensively playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, especially after using up a ton energy last night at Toronto trying to rally from a 13-point halftime deficit. The Mavericks also haven't been playing great offensively of late, as they have scored 99 or less in 3 straight. 

It doesn't figure to get any better against the Nets, as Dallas lost starting point guard Deron Williams to a hamstring injury against the Raptors. They also aren't expected to have backup point guard Devin Harris, leaving them thin at the point and thus must play at a slower pace. The Nets are coming off a 105-102 win at Chicago, but this is a team that is not great offensively. Brooklyn had scored 97 or less in each of their previous 4 and have only cracked the century mark 4 time sin their last 14 games. 

UNDER is 36-17 in the Mavericks last 53 games against a bad team like the Nets, who have won fewer than 40% of their games. UNDER is also 10-4 in Dallas' last 14 against an opponent coming off a 100-point game and 4-0 in the Nets last 4 games after scoring 100 or more. UNDER is also 10-3 in Brooklyn's last 13 against the Western Conference and 4-1 in their last 5 at home. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Grizzlies +

While Memphis is playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, I actually think it will be the Wizards who are the more tired team in this matchup. Washington has been decimated with injuries of late and had just 8 players available in their game Monday against the Kings. All 5 starters played at least 33 minutes with Dudley and Temple both going over 40 minutes. Even Sessions played 31 minutes off the bench. I just don't think the Wizards are going to have much left in the tank for this game. 

These two teams played back on 12/14 in Memphis and the Grizzlies won convincingly 112-95. What really stands out is Memphis shot 56.4% from the field, so clearly there's a matchup problem defensively for Washington against the Grizzlies. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a similar type of score, even with the Wizards getting this one on their home court. 

The Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a losing home record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when playing on no rest. Washington is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 against a team with a winning record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a SU win. Take Memphis! 

3* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Cal +

The Golden Bears are showing exceptional value here as a double-digit underdog against Virginia. Not a big surprise here to see the Cavaliers overvalued after back-to-back blowout wins over No. 14 West Virginia (70-54) and No. 12 Villanova (86-75). Even though Virginia knows Cal is a dangerous team, it's going to be tough for them to get up for this game after laying it all on the line in their last two. 

California had a couple of bad performances against San Diego State and Richmond, but those are the only two hiccups on their resume this season. The Golden Bears also come in playing with a ton of confidence, riding a 5-game winning streak. This is there first chance going up against a Top 25 team and I'm expecting their best effort of the season tonight. 

It's also worth noting that Cal plays with the same defensive intensity as Virginia. The Golden Bears are only giving up 65.4 ppg and opposing teams are shooting just 37.7% against them. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing the Golden Bears. Home favorites of 10 or more points who are shooting 36.5% or better from 3-point range and coming off 2 straight games where they made 55% or more of their field goal attempts are just 17-43 (28%) ATS against teams who shoot 32-36.5% from long-distance. Take California! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf Total of the Month on UNDER

The books have set the total too high for tonight's showdown between the Pistons and Heat, which isn't a big surprise given Detroit has played in 3 straight games where 200+ points were scored, including a 4-overtime thriller at Chicago in their last game where 191 combined points were scored. Miami also comes in off a high-scoring game, as they defeated the Blazers 116-109 at home. 

The key here is that this game is being played in Miami and the Heat should be able to dictate the tempo. Miami is only scoring 96.8 ppg on the season and allowing just 94.9 ppg. Detroit only averages 99.0 ppg on the road and should come out with a lot of energy on defense after a 3-day break. These two teams played earlier this season in Detroit and combined for just 185 points and that was with the Pistons exploding for 60 points in the 1st half. 

It's also worth noting that Detroit won that first meeting 104-81, as the UNDER is 9-1 in the Heat's last 10 when revenging a road loss and 7-0 in Miami's last 7 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. UNDER is also 11-0 in Miami's last 11 after allowing 105 or more points in 2 straight games, 16-4 in Detroit's last 20 road games after playing their last game as a road dog and 9-1 in their last 10 road games when playing 4 or less gams in 10 days. Take the UNDER! 

4* Hornets/Rockets NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Rockets -

The Rockets come into this game off a 107-97 win at home against the Clippers as a 2.5-point dog and have now won 9 of their last 13, which includes 5 straight wins at home. Even with Houston's strong play of late, the Rockets are still aren't getting much respect from the books given their disappointing start to the season.

Charlotte has been one of the surprises early, but the Hornets are struggling of late. Charlotte lost 101-109 at Washington against a depleted Wizards team that is missing several key players with injuries. It was the Hornets 3rd loss in their last 4 games and they are now just 4-7 on the road, compared to 11-4 at home. Houston has been a difficult team for Charlotte to figure out, as they have lost 9 straight in the series, including 5 straight by at least 10-points. It's also worth noting that they have won 5 straight at home in the series by at least 13 points.

Simply too much value here on Houston, as we basically need them to just win the game to cover this spread. Rockets are 26-12 ATS in their last 36 after a win by 10 or more points, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when playing with a day of rest. Take Houston!

3* NCAAB Situational No Doubt ATS Blowout on Notre Dame -

The Fighting Irish shouldn't have any problem covering this big spread against Youngstown State on Monday. Notre Dame is going to be motivated off a 73-80 loss to Indiana on Saturday and are 2-0 ATS this season when coming off a loss. 

Youngstown State is simply an awful team. They lost 46-105 at Michigan on Saturday, which was their 3rd loss this season by 22 or more points. They also recently lost by 31 at Purdue. Big key here is Youngstown State will be playing their 2nd straight on the road in a span of just 3 days, which is going to make it that much harder for them to keep this game respectable. 

Youngstown State is just 10-26 ATS in their last 36 when playing their 2nd road game in 3 days and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after playing their previous game as a road dog. Fighting Irish are 5-1 ATS last 6 off a game where they failed to cover and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record. Take Notre Dame! 

3* NBA Early Bird ATS Annihilator on Heat -

Miami comes into this game with a 11-5 record at home compared to just 4-5 on the road. Needless to say the Heat play their best basketball in front of the home crowd. This is important to note, as Miami should be extremely motivated off a 94-108 home loss to the Raptors in their last contest, which they gave up a double-digit lead in the 3rd quarter. 

Portland is definitely a team they should be able to beat rather easily. The Blazers are struggling right now, as they are just 2-5 over their last 7 and will be playing their 7th road game in their last 9 games overall. Portland is just 5-11 away from home and this is a bad matchup for the perimeter oriented Blazers. Portland relies heavily on the outside shot and will be facing a Heat team that leads the league in 3-point defense, holding teams to just 31.4% from long distance. It's also worth noting the Blazers are just 1-7 in their last 8 against the Eastern Conference, while Miami is 7-1 in their last 8 against the Western Conference, including a 11-2 record in their last 13 at home. 

Portland is 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than 60%. The Heat are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against a team who has won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Miami! 

3* Davidson/Pitt NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Pitt -

The Panther are showing some exceptional value here as a relatively small favorite against Davidson. The value here comes from the fact that this will be a neutral site game and that the Wildcats are 7-1 overall. The perception here is that we have two equally matched teams, as Pittsburgh is 8-1. 

However, a closer look at the schedule shows the Panthers are the far more impressive team. Davidson has feasted on an easy schedule, which is evident by the fact that they have been a double-digit favorite in 6 games and no line was posted in another due to inferior competition. The only time this team faced a legit opponent was North Carolina and they lost by 33 points. 

We can also see the gap in these two teams by looking at their common opponent in Eastern Washington, who they both played at home. Pittsburgh beat Eastern Washington by 33-points (84-51), while Davidson only won by 10 (96-86), despite shooting a ridiculous 60% from the field. 

Great system in play backing the Panthers, as neutral court favorites who are coming in off a home win where the team failed to cover as a favorite and are playing with 5 or 6 days of rest are 107-56 (66%) ATS since 1997! Take Pittsburgh!

3* NBA Situational ATS Line Mistake on Rockets -

Houston is showing great value here at basically a pick'em at home against the Clippers. The Rockets come in off a 107-87 win over the Lakers on Thursday and will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 4 days. The Clippers on the other hand are not only playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but their 3rd in the last 4 days.

LA also finds themselves coming off a huge game at San Antonio last night, which they invested a lot of energy, as their core 4 of Griffin, Jordan, Paul and Redddick all played at least 33 minutes. Clippers aren't a deep team and I look for them to struggle with the pace that the Rockets play with, especially with this game being playing in Houston. 

Another key factor here is the Rockets have had their fair share of success in this series and many will recall they eliminated LA from the playoffs last year. Houston also won 109-105 at Los Angeles back on 11/7. The Rockets have had their struggles early, but are playing much better of late. Houston is 8-4 over their last 12 and have won 4 straight at home. 

Clippers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 100 or more points in 3 straight games, while the Rockets are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games off a road win and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 off a road win by 10 or more points. Take Houston! 

5* NCAAB No Limit Game of the Month on Drake + 

I really like the value we are getting with the Bulldogs in a in-state matchup that will be played on a neutral court. While Drake is just 4-6 overall, they have been competitive in almost every game. Out of their 6 defeats, 4 have come by 8-points or less and they haven't lost one by more than the number listed here. 

Iowa is a good team, but I think this is a tough spot for the Hawkeyes. This will be their first game since losing 82-83 at Iowa State on 12/10, a game where they blew a 20-point lead and had a major collapse in the final minutes. Those kind of losses are difficult to come back from and adding to this is there figures to be some rust with the long lay off off. Keep in mind that while Iowa is 13-3 SU in the last 16 meetings against Drake, the Bulldogs have gone 10-5-1 ATS in these matchups. 

Iowa is also a team that typically underperforms in neutral site games, as they are just 3-11 in their last 14 on a neutral site. Hawkeyes are also just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 away from home after making 10 or more 3-pointers in 2 straight games. The Bulldogs on the other hand are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog and 33-14 ATS in their last 47 off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog. Take Drake! 

4* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Santa Clara +

My money will be on the Broncos as a decently priced road dog when they travel to take on Nevada tonight. Santa Clara got off to a miserable start, as they opened the season 0-7. However, they have bounced back nicely and won 4 straight, which includes a 62-45 win over Boston College as a 6-point dog.

You also have to keep in mind the Broncos played a tough schedule early and are actually the more battle-tested team in this matchup. You might also remember they took a very good Arizona team to the wire, losing 73-75 as a 24-point dog. 

Nevada is 7-3, but their wins have not been impressive to this point and the Wolf Pack were dealt a big blow leading up to this game, as talented big man A.J. West left the team. West was averaging 9.6 ppg, but his biggest impact game on the defensive end, where he was leading the team with 7.7 rpg and nearly 2 blocks a game. His loss is going to throw off the chemistry they had going with their rotation and leave them thin inside. 

The Wolf Pack come into this game off a 79-71 win at home against Drake, but are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win. Nevada is also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games and 5-21 ATS in their last 26 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Santa Clara! 

5* Hawks/Celtics NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Celtics -

I think we are seeing some great value here on Boston as a relatively small home favorite against the Hawks. The Celtics come into this game having lost back-to-back games, but haven't dropped 3 straight since the opening week of the season. Keep in mind Boston's two losses came at home against the red-hot Cavaliers and then at Detroit on no rest. Expect to see a highly motivated Celtics team take the floor tonight. 

Atlanta comes into this game off a 21-pont blowout win at home against the 76ers, which is definitely playing into this small line. However, the Hawks are a team that has not been playing well and shouldn't get any credit for beating a horrible Philadelphia team. Even with the win Atlanta is just 7-10 in their last 17 games. 

The home team has had a decisive edge in this series. Boston won at home 106-93 on 11/13 and Atlanta returned the favor with a 121-97 win at home on 11/24. The home team has now won 6 of the last 7 overall. 

The Celtics are 40-27 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons and are a perfect 2-0 ATS off a road loss by 3-points or less. Atlanta is just 1-3 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 off a S& win, 0-2 ATS off a home win where they scored 110 or more points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team with a winning record. Take Boston! 

3* NBA Situational No Doubt ATS Blowout on Knicks -

The Knicks come into this game having won 2 straight after a miserable 2-8 stretch and I look for them to come out extremely motivated to get a win against the 76ers. New York already defeated Philadelphia 99-87 at home earlier this season and that was a more lopsided game than the final would suggest, as the Knicks went into the 4th quarter leading by 23 points. New York is now 4-1 against the 76ers over the last 2 seasons and all 4 wins have come by at least 7 points. 

The key here is Philadelphia is getting some love from the books for playing at home, but the 76ers have little to no home court advantage. In fact, Philadelphia is 1-10 SU and 3-7 ATS at home this season. A big reason why I like the fade of the 76ers tonight, is we find Philadelphia in a brutal scheduling spot, as this will be their 6th game in the last 9 days and could have their eyes looking ahead to Sunday's showdown against LeBron James and the Cavaliers. 

Knicks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 off a cover, 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 road games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 on the road against a team with a losing home record and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 against division opponents. Philadelphia on the other hand is 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a losing home record, 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 division games. Take New York! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Raptors/Hornets UNDER

The Raptors and Hornets both come into this game off a lopsided loss in their last contest and their poor play defensively is to blame. Toronto gave up 106 points in a 16-point defeat at Indiana on Monday and Charlotte allowed 113 last night in a 15-point defeat at Orlando. 

The big key here is that these were uncharacteristic defensive performances for both teams. The Raptors had held each of their previous 4 opponents to 94 or less points, while the Hornets had allowed a team to eclipse the century mark just once in their previous 9 games and that was the Warriors.

Adding to this is the fact that Toronto is only giving up 95.9 ppg on the road and Charlotte is allowing just 96.4 ppg at home. It's also worth noting that these two teams have combined for less than 200 points in 6 of their last 7 meetings and the lone exception came in overtime where they totaled 206. 

UNDER is 6-0 in the Raptors last 6 road games, 5-0 in their last 5 against the Eastern Conference, 8-3 in their last 11 off 2 days of rest and 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss. UNDER is also 6-1 in the Hornets last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record, 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest, 32-18 in their last 50 home games after playing their previous on the road and 29-12 in their last 41 as a home favorite of 6 points or less. Take the UNDER! 

4* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Texas Tech -

South Dakota State comes into this game with an impressive 9-1 SU record and perfect 7-0 ATS mark (not all games played had lines), which includes a recent 84-70 win at Minnesota as a 2.5-point dog. I believe it has the Jackrabbits way overvalued here in what is going to be there biggest test of the season.

Keep in mind that Texas Tech is also off to a strong start, as they come in 6-1 with their only loss being against a very good Utah team on a neutral court. The Red Raiders also made easy work of Minnesota, beating the Gophers 81-68 on a neutral court. 

A big key to this matchup will be defense and I look for Texas Tech to have a big advantage on that side of the ball, especially playing at home. The Red Raiders come in allowing 66.4 ppg against opponents that on average have scored 77.2 ppg. While South Dakota State is only giving up 64.3 ppg, their opponents are only scoring 66.4 ppg on average. 

The Red Raiders are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 non-conference home games and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest. We also find strong system in play, as home teams with a line of +3 to -3, who are coming off a win by 15 or more points against an opponent that has scored 75 or more in 3 straight games are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. BET TEXAS TECH! 

3* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Nets +

We are seeing a big overreaction here with the Heat coming into this game off a 100-88 blowout win at Atlanta, while the Nets enter off a 82-105 blowout loss at home to the Magic. Brooklyn has lost 2 straight overall, but haven't dropped 3 in a row since they opened the season 0-7. Miami on the other hand has not won back-to-back road games all season. 

The Nets are clearly going to be motivated playing at home off that embarrassing home loss. Keep in mind they recently followed up a 98-114 defeat at home to the Warriors with a 110-105 win over the Rockets as a 5-point home dog. As for the Heat, they could find it difficult to get up for this game. Miami will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 5th in the last 8 days overall. Heat also could be looking forward to a 4-game home-stand. 

Miami is just 2-14 ATS in their last 16 off a road win and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 off an upset win as a road underdog. The Nets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 after losing 2 out of their last 3, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games and 4-1 ATS in last 5 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Take Brooklyn! 

5* NBA Southeast Total of the Month on Hornets/Magic UNDER 

The books have set this total too high for this division matchup. Both of these teams come into this game playing extremely well on the defensive end. Charlotte is allowing just 91.6 ppg over their last 5 and Orlando is giving up just 95.4 ppg in their last 5. 

Just 1.5 games separate these two teams in the Southeast and that should have both playing with a lot of energy on the defensive side of the ball. We have seen several low-scoring games when these two face off against division opponents. Charlotte has seen an average combined score of 188.6 in their 5 division games and the Magic average a combined score of just 191 in division matchups. It's also worth noting that each of the last 3 meetings between these two teams last year saw a combined score of 196 or less with both games in Orlando finishing with 188 or less. 

UNDER is 12-2-2 in the Hornets last 16 against an opponent who scored 100+ points in their previous games, 11-4 in their last 15 following a SU loss and 6-1 in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference. UNDER is also 4-1 in Orlando's last 5 home games, 5-1-1 in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 7-1 in their last 8 division games. Take the UNDER! 

5* VCU/Georgia Tech NCAAB Vegas Insider on Georgia Tech -

The Yellow Jackets are showing some great value here at basically a pick'em at home against VCU. The Rams come into this contest off a 71-76 loss to Florida State and are now just 1-3 on the road compared to 4-0 at home. Georgia Tech has played their best basketball at home, as the Yellow Jackets are 4-1 and outscoring opponents on their home floor by 16.4 ppg. 

The Yellow Jackets have really been impressive on the offensive end at home, as they come in averaging 87.4 ppg and are shooting 49.2% from the field at home. VCU only averages 69.2 ppg on the road and are shooting a mere 40.8% away from home. Defensively these two teams are pretty equal, but I would give the slight edge to the Yellow Jackets, as they are holding opponents to 41.9% shooting against them at home, where the Rams are allowing 45.5% on the road. Georgia Tech should also control the glass, as they are outrebounding opponents by 12 rpg, while VCU is only outrebounding opponents by 2 rpg. 

The Rams are just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 off a SU loss and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. The Yellow Jackets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Take Georgia Tech! 

4* Cavs/Celtics NBATV ATS Annihilator on Cavs - 

The Cavaliers come into their showdown against the Celtics off their most impressive performance of the season, as they went into Orlando last Friday and destroyed the Magic 111-76. However, Cleveland is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games and I don't see them being overvalued here, as Boston is getting a lot of love right now. The Celtics have gone 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games and gained a lot of respect with their double-overtime loss against the Warriors and win the very next night on the road against a red-hot Charlotte team. 

With Iman Shumpert playing for the first time this season in the win over the Magic and Kyrie Irving expected back during their upcoming 3-game home stand, I get the feeling the Cavaliers are on the verge of going on a big run and want to be playing their best basketball when they go on the road next week to face the Warriors on Christmas Day. 

I look for LeBron James and the Cavaliers to treat this as a statement game against the Celtics and we can expect to see the best out of Cleveland with them coming off 3-days of rest and this being a televised game on NBATV. 

Boston is just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games after playing 2 straight games as an underdog, while the Cavaliers are 41-21 ATS in their last 62 when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 when playing with 3 or more days of rest. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system, as Teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are coming off an upset win as a road dog are just 103-160 (39%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Cleveland! 

5* Western Conference Game of the Month on Rockets -

It might not seem like much, but with a win Houston can move above .500 for the first time this season. I believe it's a big deal for the Rockets, who have put their ugly struggles behind them and started playing up to their potential. Houston is 7-2 over their last 9 games a very profitable 5-1 ATS in their last 6. 

One of the reasons we are seeing a small line here is the fact that the Denver has already beat the Rockets twice this season. They won 107-98 as a 6.5-point home dog on 11/13 and 105-85 as a 10.5-point road dog on 10/28. That double-revenge works more in the favor of the Rockets than the Nuggets and it's important to note that both of those victories came prior to Houston's recent surge. 

Denver has historically been a good home team, but that's not the case this season. The Nuggets are just 4-7 at home and were fortunate to win their last home game in a 111-108 overtime win against Minnesota (trailed by 15 at half). Denver is just 3-9 in their last 12 and all 3 wins came by 3-points or less (easily could be riding 12-game losing streak). 

While the Nuggets haven't played since Friday, they are just 3-14 ATS over the last 2 seasons when playing with 2 days of rest. Denver is also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games and 8-18 in their last 26 as a home dog. Adding to this, we see that favorites revenging 2 losses as a favorite are 133-81 (70%) ATS when coming off a home win since 1996. Take Houston! 

3* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Grizzlies -

This Grizzlies are showing some great value here as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against the Wizards. Memphis is being way undervalued coming into this game off back-to-back losses, while Washington is being overvalued due to covering 2 straight, including a 114-111 win at Dallas as a 6.5-point dog on Saturday. 

While Washington was able to beat the Mavericks on the road, this is a team that's poised to take a step back with the recent injury to Bradley Beal, who has missed the last two. Beal is a major part of the offense, averaging 19.8 ppg and one of their biggest 3-point threats at 38.9% and a team best 2.2 made 3-pointers per game. Keep in mind the Wizards are also without Drew Gooden, Alan Anderson and Nene right now. Tough spot for Washington's depleted roster, as this will be their 3rd straight on the road and 6th game overall in the last 9 days. 

Memphis is a team that has had some ugly losses, but they continue to bounce back. The Grizzlies back-to-back losses is their only losing streak in the last month. Grizzlies are playing in the 2nd of a back-to-back set, but are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 when playing on no rest. Wizards are 0-4 ATS last 4 off a SU win and 3-18 ATS in their last 21 off a win by 6-points or less. Take Memphis! 

4* NBA Situational Over/Under Total Annihilator on UNDER

These two teams just played on Friday and I cashed in on the UNDER 204 with ease in a 94-90 win by Oklahoma City. While the books have adjusted the total for the rematch, there's still a ton of value on the UNDER in this one. 

Oklahoma City has gone UNDER the total in 8 of their last 9 games, including each of their last 4 at home. The Jazz have gone UNDER in each of their last 2 and 7 of 11 overall. These two teams also have a history of low-scoring games, as each of the last 6 in the series have finished below the mark. Having just played 2 days ago against each other only adds to the likelihood of another low-scoring game, as both teams are very familiar with what the other wants to do offensively.

UNDER is 11-3 in Utah's last 14 against a team with a winning record and 7-2 in their last 9 against the Western Conference. UNDER is also 6-0 in the Thunder's last 6 against a team with a losing record and 9-1 in their last 10 off a SU win. Take the UNDER!  

3* NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Nebraska 

The Cornhuskers have one of the best homecourt advantages that not a lot people know about and we are finding Nebraska showing great value here as a pick'em at home against Rhode Island. The Cornhuskers are simply being way undervalued off an ugly 16-point road loss at Creighton.

Keep in mind that Nebraska's 4 losses this season have all come against quality opponents in Villanova, Cincinnati, Miami and Creighton. The only loss at home is to the Hurricanes by 5-points as a 5.5-point underdog. Rhode Island is 6-3 but have yet to play a true road game and have already lost at home twice as a favorite to Valparaiso and Providence. They also have a 23-point loss on a neutral site against Maryland. 

Rhode Island is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 in a game with a low total set at 130 to 139.5 points, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games (1-4 L5 vs team w/ winning home record) and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a SU win. Cornhuskers are 27-13-1 ATS in their last 41 home games, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 at home after playing a game as a road dog and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a home favorite or pick'em of 3 points or less. Take Nebraska! 

5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of the Month on Colorado -

Colorado is showing great value here as a 5-point favorite against BYU. The Buffaloes come into this game 7-1 with their only loss come against a very good Iowa State team, which they only lost by 6-points on a neutral site. Colorado is 5-0 at home and are winning at home by an average score of 86.0 to 67.6. 

BYU comes in with a respectable 6-2 record, but their strong start has been aided by an easy schedule to this point. Their only real test was at Utah and they lost that game 75-83 and it wasn't that close, as they trailed by 23 points at the half. The Cougars also lost their only other true road game at Long Beach State. 

The Buffaloes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 off 5 or more consecutive wins, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a losing road record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the WCC. BYU on the other hand is just 9-23 ATS in their last 32 road games when they come in having covered 4 of their last 5 games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after leading by 15+ points at the half of their last contest. Take Colorado! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Pacers/Pistons UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive showdown tonight between these two Central Division rivals, as both of these teams can really get after it on the defensive side of the ball. After giving up 120+ points during a 3-game losing streak, the Pacers responded by allowing just 83 in a 13-point win over the Heat last night. I look for Indiana to carry over that effort on the defensive side of the ball against a Pistons team that only averages 98.4 ppg. 

Detroit has held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 95 or less and are giving up just 96.2 ppg at home on the season. The Pistons will be especially motivated in this one, after losing at home to the Pacers by 12 earlier this season. Keep in mind that earlier meeting saw a combined 176 points in a 94-82 Indiana win. 

UNDER is 41-26 in the Pacers last 67 games off a home win, 24-9 in their last 33 against a team with a winning record and 4-1 in their last 5 road games against a team that's won 60% or more of their home games. UNDER is also 6-0 in the Pistons last 6 against at team that's won more than 60% of their games and 5-1 in their last 6 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take the UNDER 201!