3* NBA Playoffs SMASH (TNT) on Lakers -11.5
The Lakers, which swept the season series against New Orleans, let Chris Paul get whatever he wanted in Game 1 and they paid the consequences. That loss is just the wake-up call the two-time defending champs needed.

The Lakers won't let Paul beat them again tonight. Expect them to double him off the pick-n-roll to force him to give it up. Also, don't be surprised if Kobe Bryant spends some time on the All-Star guard. He has the length to bother Paul's shot and to take away some of his passing lanes. The Lakers held Paul to just 10 points in an 18-point home win last month and they can certainly do it again.

With Gasol, Bynum and Odom, the Lakers have a huge advantage up front. With Aaron Gray listed as doubtful, the Lakers figure to enjoy an even bigger advantage inside in this one.

Expect LA to tighten the screws defensively and really take advantage of their size on their way to a comfortable win. Lay the points.

3* NBA Playoffs *Crunch Time Bailout* on Blazers +3.5
Portland gave Dallas a game in Game 1 despite 2 of 16 shooting from 3-point range and scoring only 81 points because its defense was superb. Portland's offensive struggles in Game 1 actually bode well for us tonight. Consider that the Blazers are 9-1 ATS in road games after a game where they made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse over the last 2 seasons. They are winning these games by an average score of 95.6 to 91.0. They are also 10-2 ATS this season when out to avenge a loss in which they were held to less than 85 points. They are winning these games by an average score of 99.5 to 94.9.

Despite an 8-point loss in Game 1, the Blazers have still either defeated the Mavs or lost to them by 3 points or less in 3 of the last 4 and 6 of the last 9.

Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that the Mavericks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.

Dallas took 29 free throws in Game 1 while Portland only took 13 and coach Nate McMillan wasn't happy. Expect his boys to force the issue more in this one, which will give them an excellent chance to win the game outright.

5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Week on Magic -8.5
Right away I love the fact that plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are playing with double revenge (straight losses to an opponent), provided their foe is coming off an upset win over a division rival, are 39-14 (73.6%) ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 11.7 points.

In addition, Orlando is 15-5 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more under coach Van Gundy. The Magic are winning by an average of 14.0 points in this situation.

Atlanta is just 6-20 ATS in its last 26 road games in the NBA playoffs, losing these contest by an average of 12.9 points. The Hawks are also 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 playoff games as an underdog while the Magic are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite.

It's desperation time for the Magic as they can't afford to fall behind 0-2. Meanwhile, Atlanta already feels like it has accomplished what it set out to do - steal away homecourt advantage. Orlando will want this one more. Lay the points.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on 76ers +9.5
After falling in Game 1 by 8 points, the 76ers will up their level of intensity tonight to try to steal away the homecourt advantage.

Philly is the healthier team right now as Miami's Erick Dampier, Mike Miller and Dwayne Wade are all listed as questionable for tonight's game. Wade is dealing with migraines, which will make it very difficult for him to play to his All-Star standards if he is able to go.

After Saturday's defeat, coach Doug Collins and veteran Elton Brand talked a lot about driving the ball aggressively to the basket to get to the foul line. The 76ers haven't done a very good job of that against Miami this season but I expect them to make an extra effort to do so this evening. The execution of this game plan will go a long way toward getting us the cover.

Philly improved to 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games when playing with triple revenge (3 straight losses to an opponent) with its Game 1 cover and this trend is still in play tonight. The 76ers are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog. The Heat, meanwhile, are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the 76ers.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Nuggets +6
Motivated by back-to-back April defeats to the Thunder, expect Denver to give its division rivals all they want and more tonight.

The Nuggets have been a tremendous investment recently, especially when on the road and catching points. The Nuggets are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games, 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. It is also worth noting that the Thunder are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.

This is the first time this Thunder teams has been expected to win in the postseason. With that comes pressure. The Nuggets won't be feeling nearly as much pressure and should be able to play free and easy as a result. Take the points as Denver has an excellent chance to win Game 1.

3* NBA Playoffs SMASH on Knicks +6
Motivated by losing all 4 regular season meetings to the Celtics, expect the Knicks to give the C's a game this evening.

The Knicks have played Boston very tough in recent meetings. In fact, they have played Boston to within 4 points or fewer in 5 of the last 8 matchups.

New York, which has won 7 of its last 9, enters the playoffs in better form than Boston, which has dropped 7 of its last 13. We also can't ignore the fact that this is Boston's first postseason rodeo in several years without key post defender and rebounder Kendrick Perkins.

The Knicks are 27-12-2 ATS in their last 41 games as an underdog. In addition, they are 16-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season, winning these games by an average score of 106.4 to 103.4. Take the points.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Hawks +8.5
Much has been made about Atlanta's 0-6 finish, but it didn't really have much incentive as it was locked into the #5 seed. Also, it shouldn't be ignored that the Hawks played the Spurs to a 7-point game and the Heat to an 8-point game during this skid.

Atlanta, which won 3 of 4 against Orlando this season with its lone loss coming by 4 points, has plenty of motivation in this series. You see, Orlando completely embarrassed the Hawks in a 4-game sweep in last year's playoffs.

Atlanta was abused from 3-point range in that series, allowing the Magic to make an average of 11.0 3-point shots per game. But consider that the Hawks enter the playoffs allowing opponents to shoot just 33.8 percent from deep (4th in the NBA), and they have held the Magic to 19 of 84 (22.6 percent) from three-point range this season.

In addition, the Magic are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. Take the points.

3* Early NBA Playoffs SMASH (ESPN) on Bulls -11.5
Chicago defeated Indiana by 19 and 21 points in 2 meetings at the United Center this season. It also added another 13-point victory at Conseco. However, the Bulls lost the most recent matchup in this series last month. That defeat assures us Chicago won't be looking ahead.

Consider that Chicago is an impressive 30-15 ATS when out to avenging a same season loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons.

Indiana has struggled on the road all season and is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 road games and 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as a road underdog. The Pacers are also 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings in this matchup and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Chicago.

Expect Derrick Rose and company to waste no time sending a message. Lay the points.

4* NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Mavs -9.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses to New Orleans by a combined 3 points, expect the Mavs to give the Hornets a beating. Dallas led 92-85 with a minute to play in the most recent meeting (3/9) between these teams, but New Orleans scored the final eight points to squeak out a 1-point win. You can bet that loss still isn't sitting well. Plus, Dallas still has a shot at the No. 2 seed in the West, which would give it home court through the first 2 rounds of the playoffs.

New Orleans, which is currently tied with Memphis, doesn't want the 7-seed, which would potentially match it up with the Lakers, a team they went 0-4 against. The Hornets would much rather see San Antonio in the first round, a team they split 4 meetings with.

The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Lay the points.

3* NBA Situational SMASH on Jazz -3
Denver is locked into the #5-seed in the West and has no incentive to win here. That's why the Nuggets will be resting Nene, Afflalo, Felton, Martin and possibly Gallinari.

The Jazz are at home, and they will look to win this one for the faithful fans who stuck by them throughout a tough season.

Besides, the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the Nuggets are 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Utah. Lay the points.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Lakers -6.5
Odds makers are begging for the money to come in on the Spurs with this line but we won't bite. This game means a lot more to the Lakers, and I expect that to show once the ball goes up.

After 5 consecutive losses SU and ATS, Kobe Bryant and Phil Jackson have called out the troops. Expect them to respond in a big way against a Spurs team that is much more concerned about limiting its starters minutes to go into the playoffs healthy.

The Lakers dominated the Spurs in a 16-point road rout in the most recent meeting, and they will have the motivation to do it again.

Keep in mind that the Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with 2 days of rest and the Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. the NBA Southwest division. The Lakers have a lot more to play for here as they try to hold off Dallas and OKC for the #2 seed. Lay the points.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +6
This is a tough spot for the Thunder, playing the second game of a back-to-back on the road following an emotional win over the Lakers. This situation spells letdown for OKC.

Sacramento is quietly playing some of its best ball of the season, going 7-4 SU and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games. The Kings will be lacking no motivation tonight as they look to avenge the 30-point loss they took at OKC in the most recent meeting. Fortunately, the Kings have had much better luck against the Thunder at home. Sacramento has either won or lost by 6 points or less in its last 5 home games against the Thunder. This includes a 2-point loss at home earlier this season.

The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 4.5 to 10.0 points. Take the Kings.

3* NBA *Marquee Matchup* on Hawks +7
Motivated by 4 straight defeats, including a brutally embarrassing loss to lowly Washington last game, and a blowout loss at home to Miami last month, expect the Hawks to be ready to go tonight.

Atlanta, which hasn't lost 5 in a row in over 3 years, needs this game to prove to itself that it is capable of winning a playoff series against the East's elite. Atlanta should also benefit from the day off to prepare.

Defeating this motivated Hawks squad will be a tough encore for Miami after such an emotional win over Boston yesterday. The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win of more than 10 points and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a day of rest. The home team is also 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the Hawks.

4* NBA *BEST BET* (ABC) on Heat -6
Motivated by 3 prior defeats to Boston this season, expect the red hot Heat to have their revenge Sunday afternoon.

Consider that plays on home favorites playing with triple revenge (3 straight losses vs. an opponent) in a game involving two good teams with winning percentages between 60% to 75% are 81-44 ATS since 1996.

Also, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out to avenge a loss to a team that held them less than 85 points in the most recent matchup, provided both teams have winning percentages of 60% to 75%, are 33-10 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 11.7 points.

We'll lay the points with the Heat.

4* NBA Saturday Night *BEST BET* on Jazz +10.5
We saw the way the Jazz got up for the Lakers in their win at LA Tuesday. Following a disappointing performance against Portland, and motivated by 2 prior losses to San Antonio this season, expect the Jazz to give the Spurs a game.

The Spurs have been a poor investment when laying points on their home floor. In fact, they are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite. San Antonio has had 2 full days of rest, but odds makers love to overvalue good team in such spots, as evidenced by the fact San Antonio is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games when playing on 2 days' rest.

Utah, meanwhile, has been a solid investment following a double-digit defeat. Consider that the Jazz are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points. We'll take the points.

3* NBA Revenge SMASH on Kings +9.5
The Kings have quietly been playing some very good basketball, winning 7 of their last 11. They did, however, get their doors blown off by San Antonio last game and they were embarrassed in their most recent visit to Memphis. These losses assure us the Kings will be out for some serious revenge.

The Kings are a much improved team with Tyreke Evans back in action and they have been very strong in revenge spots this season. In fact, Sacramento is 25-13 ATS when out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent this season. It is only losing by an average of 2.9 points in this situation. The Kings are also a tremendous 27-12 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons, losing these contests by just 4.2 points on average. Take the points.

3* NBA Letdown Special on Cleveland +9.5
Expect a letdown from Chicago after such a big win over Boston last night. The Bulls will have a tough time getting up for this game against a team they have defeated 3 times this season.

Cleveland is showing some life with back-to-back wins, and its 3 losses to Chicago assure us it will be motivated here. The Cavs, which have a recent home win over the Miami Heat, are 3-0 ATS versus Chicago this season.

The Cavaliers are an impressive 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Bulls are 5-12 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Cleveland. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Celtics +4.5
With Chicago likely to secure home court throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs, Boston will have to win at Chicago if it is to repeat as champions of the East. I expect the Celtics to show the Bulls they can do just that tonight.

The Celtics have been a tremendous investment as an underdog at 9-2 ATS in their last 11 in the role. The Bulls, meanwhile, are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.

After winning the season's first 2 meeting by 5 and 12 points respectively, Boston lost the most recent meeting by 11 points at Chicago in January. That actually bodes well for us considering Boston is 10-1 ATS in road games when looking to avenge a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. It has won in this situation by an average of 9.9 points.

Boston has wins at the Lakers, Spurs and Heat and I expect it to add Chicago to the list. Take the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on 76ers -4.5
Off back-to-back losses, including a butt-kicking at Boston last night, and a double-digit loss to New York in the most recent meeting, the 76ers will be extremely motivated when they hit their home floor this evening.

Since losing 9 of 10, the Knicks have managed to bounce back with 4 straight victories. Forgive me if I'm not impressed. They needed OT to beat the Magic in a game in which Jameer Nelson did not play. After that, wins over New Jersey, Cleveland and Toronto won't impress anyone.

The Knicks are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last 5 road games. They are also are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest.

Philly is 25-12 at home on the season with a 6.0-point average margin of victory, and it has been deadly in bounce back spots. The 76ers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Here's the clincher: Philly is 10-2 ATS when out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent this season, winning in this situation by an average of 8.7 points. Take the 76ers.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Trail Blazers -10.5
With a chance to clinch a spot in the playoffs, the Blazers won't take the Warriors lightly tonight, especially since they lost to Golden State in the most recent meeting.

The Warriors have lost 8 in a row on the road with those losses coming by an average of 13.4 points. 5 of their last 6 road defeats have all come by 11 points or more. The Blazers have won 9 straight at the Rose Garden by an average of 14.4 points. It is also worth noting that the Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Blazers have a huge advantage on the defensive end and in the paint with Warriors missing the inside presence of Andris Biedrins. Expect a big night from LaMarcus Aldridge and for Portland to dominate the glass as they get the win and cover here.

4* 32-0 ATS Championship Game *BEST BET* on Butler +3.5
Butler is a perfect 10-0 ATS in all tournament games this season, winning these contests by an average score of 69.6 to 62.1. It is also 10-0 ATS in all NCAA tournament over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 65.0 to 60.0. It is also worth noting that the Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less.

These trends complete our perfect angle, but I have also uncovered several other trends that provide further support. The Bulldogs are 22-4-2 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 23-6 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games as an underdog, 18-5 ATS in their last 23 NCAA Tournament games and 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Huskies, meanwhile, are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points.

No team has been more prepared or executed better than Butler in the NCAA tournament the last 2 years and I expect no different tonight. Take the points.

3* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Mavericks +4
Motivated by back-to-back SU and ATS defeats, as well as a 3-point loss at Portland last month, expect the Mavs to take the Blazers right down to the wire Sunday.

Dallas has won or lost by 4 points or less in 4 straight, 12 of the last 13 and 25 of the last 27 meetings in this series. It is also worth noting that Dallas is a perfect 9-0 ATS under coach Carlisle in road games off an upset loss as a road favorite. The Mavs have won by an average of 12.0 points in this situation.

The Mavericks are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games when playing without a day of rest. The Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Take the Mavs.

4* NBA "Total" Dominator on Cavs/Knicks UNDER 216
The Knicks have been well Over this number in their last 3. Also, the last 2 meetings in this series have gone well Over this number. Despite these things, odds makers have set the line at just 216. I smell something fishy.

NY has lost 11 straight games to the Cavs, including each of the season's first 3 meetings with the league's worst team. That is not sitting well and the Knicks know the only way to do something about it is to "D" up. I'm confident the "D" finally shows up against a Cavs' squad averaging just 94.1 ppg on the road. Cleveland has been held below the century mark in 12 of its last 14 games.

The Under is 9-2 in the Cavaliers' last 11 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog of 11.0 points or more. We'll bet the Under.

5* Never Lost Final Four *BEST BET* on Kentucky -2
Respect is given to this UConn team, which kicked Kentucky in November and has caught fire late in the season, but that isn't enough to pull me off the Wildcats.

Kentucky was a young team still finding its way when these schools first met. It is a much different team now, one with toughness and poise. One that has defeated No. 1 overall seed Ohio State and No. 2 seed North Carolina.

The Wildcats were able to avenge an earlier season loss to North Carolina in the Elite Eight, and that should come as no surprise. After all, Kentucky is 8-1 ATS when playing away from home in a revenge spot under coach Calipari, winning in this situation by an average of 11.7 points. If playing away from home and out to avenge an upset loss, this trend tightens up to a perfect 6-0 ATS with an average winning margin of 12.1 points.

With great size, length and athletic ability, the Wildcats held Ohio State, which ranked 2nd in the country in field goal percentage, to just 32.8 percent shooting. This is what the Wildcats are capable of and this is what I believe we'll see this evening. Take Kentucky.

4* NBA Friday Night Bailout on Trail Blazers -2.5
Motivated by 3 prior losses to OKC this season, and an upset loss at New Orleans last game, expect the Blazers to get the win and cover at home tonight.

Portland is one tough cookie at home, where it is 26-10 this season. The fact that it is coming off an upset loss on the road is also very significant considering coach McMillan's teams are an impressive 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following an upset loss as a road favorite. They are winning by an average score of 97.9 to 89.4 in this situation.

In addition, the Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Also, the favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the Thunder are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +1.5
The Grizzlies are in great form, and I love their chances tonight against a New Orleans team minus leading scorer David West. Having lost both previous meetings to New Orleans this season, the Grizzlies will be lacking no motivation here.

The Grizzlies are 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. They are also 9-1 ATS in their last 10 versus divisional foes, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win.

The Hornets are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less, 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points.

In addition, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take Memphis.

4* NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Mavericks +7
The Mavericks' 27-10 road record is the best in the NBA, and it would likely be even better had Dirk Nowitzki not missed time with an injury earlier this season. And of those 10 defeats, it is worth noting that 5 have come by 5 points or less. Also consider that Dallas is 13-4 ATS as a road underdog this season, winning these contests by an average score of 98.5 to 96.4.

This game is important for both teams in terms of Western Conference playoff seeding, so I'm expecting a battle in which the points will come in handy. Dallas has either won or lost by 7 points or less to the Lakers in 4 straight and 17 of the last 18.

The Mavs played last night, but they were in L.A. so travel was not an issue. Besides, the Mavericks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing without a day of rest.

The Lakers have had a few days off, which is one reason why this line is elevated. However, it is worth noting that LA is 4-12 ATS in home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season. It is only winning by an average of 5.7 points in this situation.

The road team is 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings and the Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Lakers at Staples. Take the points.

3* NIT Championship SMASH (ESPN2) on Alabama +2
Alabama's defense will be the difference tonight. The Tide rank 7th in the country with only 59.2 ppg allowed while holding the opposition to 38.3% shooting (4th nationally). They also force a lot of turnovers. They got Miami to Cough it up 19 times in the quarterfinals and Colorado 16 times in the semifinals.

The Shockers have benefited at times from playing teams that live and die by the 3-point shot. Bama is not one of those teams. It likes to get in the paint, putting a lot of pressure on opposing defenses. With this in mind, it is worth noting that the Shockers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games (after 15-plus games into the season) versus teams who attempt 14 or less 3 point shots per game.

While Wichita State is also a good defensive team, it doesn't put as much pressure on its foes as Alabama. As a result, it doesn't force as many turnovers. This is significant because Bama is 14-5 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season. The Tide are defeating these teams by an average score of 68.7 to 60.6. Take the Tide.

5* NBA "Total" Game of the Week on Warriors/Grizzlies UNDER 211.5
The Warriors and Grizzlies have combined for at least 213 points in each of their last 8 meetings and yet the books opened with an over/under line of 210. In addition, Golden State has been Over this number in each of its last 4 games and Memphis was Over it in its last game. I smell a rat.

Naturally, the public is all over the Over, which is precisely where the books want it. I won't hesitate to go against the grain, avoiding what is certainly a bookmaker trap.

Golden State has the perception of a high-scoring team, but it hasn't been nearly as good offensively on the road. As a result, the Warriors are 24-14 Under in road games this season. They are also 37-23 Under in a road game when the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 2 seasons.

It is also to our benefit that the Warriors are coming off a tiring overtime game last night. That's because the Under is 5-1 in the Warriors' last 6 games when playing without a day of rest. Also, the Under is 16-3 when the Warriors are playing their 2nd road game in 2 days over the last 2 seasons.

Also, Memphis has held 4 of its last 5 foes under the century mark. It has also held its opponents to an average of 87.3 points in its last 4 home games. With 2 full days of rest to gear up for this one, I expect the Grizzlies to be very successful on the defensive end against a tired Warriors squad. We'll pound the Under tonight.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Suns pk
Off back-to-back SU and ATS defeats, and further motivated by consecutive defeats to Sacramento, expect the Suns to rise to the occasion tonight.

The Kings have won 3 in a row SU and ATS, but that's not enough to pull me off the Suns in this highly motivated spot. Plus, Phoenix has taken 12 of the last 15 meetings in this series.

The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a losing SU record and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Phoenix is also 7-0 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams (scoring 99+ points/game) in the 2nd half of the season this season. It is defeating these foes by an average score of 109.6 to 104.4.

The Kings are 18-40-1 ATS in their last 59 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. Also, they are only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. We'll take the Suns.

3* NIT SMASH (ESPN2) on Wichita State -3
I'm confident Washington State wouldn't be playing in the NIT semifinals if it had to play a game on the road to get here. We're talking about a team that is just 3-8 in its last 11 road/neutral floor games.

Wichita State, meanwhile, has gone on the road during the NIT and it upset top seed Virginia Tech. Overall, the Shockers are 13-4 in road/neutral court games this season.

The Shockers are the superior defensive team, allowing nearly 5.0 points less per game. They also have experience in playing teams with legit go-to guys. Wichita State played against Charleston's Andrew Goudelock last round and allowed him to get his while locking up everyone else. And Goudelock had to work extremely hard for his points. He made a couple 3-pointers from 30-plus feet. I expect a similar strategy to work against Washington State and Klay Thompson this evening.

The Shockers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as a favorite and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

Also, the Cougars are 14-30-2 ATS in their last 46 games as an underdog and 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Take the Shockers.

4* NBA "Total" Dominator on Celtics/Pacers OVER 188
The Indiana Pacers will have an excellent chance to win this game because they should be able to dictate the tempo, which should result in this one going over the number.

Motivated by back-to-back poor offensive performances, and a trio of poor offensive showings against Boston this season, expect Indiana to really look to push the pace early in this one. Plus, Boston just played yesterday, so it will have a much more difficult time staying in front of the fresher Pacers.

Going to the numbers we find that Boston is 13-2 Over off a road no-cover where it won straight up as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. We are seeing an average of 200.8 total points scored in this situation. Bean Town is also 17-5 Over in its last 22 road games after allowing 85 points or less in 2 straight games. We are seeing an average of 196.6 total points scored in these spots.

It is also worth noting that the Over is 5-0 in the Pacers' last 5 games as a home underdog, 6-1 in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 9-3 in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Take the Over tonight.

3* Sunday NBA *Underdog Shocker* on Cavs +6
Without Joe Johnson on the floor, and after clinching a playoff berth Saturday, I expect a major lapse in concentration from the Hawks here, which will leave them very susceptible.

Cleveland enters this contest with some much needed momentum and it will be hungry after losing each of the season's first two to the Hawks. Because Atlanta has already defeated the Cavs twice, it will be much more concerned with upcoming matchups against Orlando and Boston.

Atlanta is a disastrous 5-14 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season, losing by an average score of 98.1 to 96.8 in these spots. The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win. Take the points.

4* Sunday Elite 8 *BEST BET* on Kentucky pk
Kentucky is every bit as talented as UNC, and it is a much stronger defensive team. The Wildcats were able to control the tempo and beat up the No. 1 overall seed Ohio State and I expect them to continue their run against the Tar Heels.

Kentucky lost by 2 points at Chapel Hill in December, but teams coached by Calipari have been extremely profitable in revenge spots. In fact, Coach Cal's clubs are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when out to avenge a close loss of 3 points or less to an opponent. His teams are bouncing back to win by an average of 9.1 points in this spot.

Also, the Wildcats are 11-1 ATS following a win by 6 points or less since Calipari took over the reins. This trend tightens up to a perfect 6-0 ATS if his team if off a close win by 3 points or less.

In addition, UNC is 0-7 ATS when playing away from home with one or less days' rest over the last 2 seasons. It is losing these contests by an average of 7.5 points. Kentucky's defense, which held Ohio State to just 32.8% shooting, will be the difference in this one. Take Kentucky.

3* Elite 8 SMASH on Kansas -11
Since getting upset by #9 seed Northern Iowa last year, Kansas has been on a mission. The Jayhawks have destroyed each of their opponents in the Big Dance by a minimum of 14 points.

VCU looked very human against FSU. Kansas is nearly as strong defensively as the Noles, holding foes to just 39.4% shooting on the season, and it is much stronger offensively.

It's been a great run for VCU but Kansas is on another level right now, and I fully expect it to flex its muscles in this matchup. The Jayhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. They are also 22-8 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons, defeating these foes by an average of 13.1 points. Lay the points.

3* Never Lost NBA SMASH on Knicks -4
The Bobcats managed to erase a 13-point 4th quarter deficit to upset the Celtics last night. That defeat sets them up for a major letdown against a Knicks team in need of a win in the worst way.

It took the Miami Heat 5 straight defeats before they regained their form and I believe 5 losses will be the magic number for New York as well. Consider that the Knicks are a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games after 5 or more consecutive losses under coach D'Antoni.

The Knicks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Knicks are the much more talented team, and they need a win in the worst way. I think they finally play with a sense of urgency and desperation to get the job done tonight.

4* Elite 8 *Power Play* on UConn -2.5
If UConn was able to get past the long, athletic defensive-minded Aztecs of San Diego State, it can certainly get by an Arizona squad that is much weaker defensively.

The Wildcats are a great story, and they have some talent, but they don't have Kemba Walker. No player remaining in the dance has more ice water in their veins. Plus, stud frosh Jeremy Lamb is playing with extreme confidence right now and that has taken the Huskies to another level.

We also can't ignore that UConn has been the best tournament team in the nation this season. Why? Walker has consistently played big in the biggest games whether it has been the Maui Invitational, Big East Tourney or Big Dance. In fact, UConn is an awesome 11-0 ATS in all tournament games this season, winning them by an average of 11.3 points. The Huskies are also a sick 8-0 ATS against non-conference foes this season and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against Arizona.

Arizona is riding high off an improbable blowout of Duke, and I don't think it can match that performance against the unflappable Huskies. Lay the points.

5* Never Lost Elite 8 *BEST BET* on Florida -4
The Gators were clearly better than BYU, but they allowed the Cougars to hang around by shooting just 45% (10 of 22) from the free throw line. That's a large departure from their season average of 66.4%. Fortunately, history tells us that terrible performance from the foul line will have the Gators very focused today. Consider that the Gators have never lost under coach Donovan when playing away from home following a game in which shot 53 percent or worse from the charity stripe. Florida is a perfect 8-0 ATS in this situation with an average winning margin of 13.0 points.

In addition, the Gators are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Butler is gritty and tough, but that won't be enough against this superior Florida squad. The Bulldogs have overachieved to this point and Florida has the right combination of size and athleticism to take them out. Lay the number.

5* Sweet 16 Game of the Year on Florida State -4
FSU is big, long, athletic and deep, and these things help make it a tenacious defensive team. FSU's defense is currently hitting on all cylinders, having held its first 2 NCAA tournament opponents to 31.4% and 31.7% shooting respectively. On the season, the Seminoles rank No. 1 in the country in field goal percentage defense, holding their foes to just 36.0% shooting. The defense should be even better tonight as Chris Singleton, voted the ACC defensive player of the year by league coaches, is coming off his two best practices since breaking his right foot. He has gotten his feet wet and his confidence back in FSU's first 2 games. Now, he's ready to make even more of an impact this evening.

Going along with playing great defense, FSU is an outstanding rebounding team, averaging 5.0 more boards per game than its opponent. This bodes well for us considering VCU is just 2-9 ATS versus good rebounding teams (outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game) this season. VCU is also 1-8 ATS after 2 straight wins by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

The Seminoles are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

Defense is something we can count on out of Florida State. The Noles bring it every night, and I expect it to be the difference here. Lay the points.

4* NCAA Tournament Total of the Week on Kentucky/Ohio State UNDER 141
Ohio State gets plenty of credit for its defense and rightfully so. The Buckeyes are only allowing 59.6 ppg (10th nationally). But it is what Kentucky brings to the table defensively that makes me like the Under here.

The Wildcats have really been dialed in at the defensive end, having held each of their last 8 opponents to 68 points or less. They've held their last 4 to 63 points or less. And Kentucky hasn't just done it against weak opponents. Consider that it is 7-0 Under when playing away from home against very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots - over the last 3 seasons. The Wildcats have held these teams to just 54.6 ppg.

Also, Kentucky is 8-0 Under versus good passing teams averaging 16 or more assists/game under coach Calipari. It is holding these foes to just 59.3 ppg.

In addition, plays Under on all teams when the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (Kentucky in this case) - after allowing 65 points or less 4 straight games and up against an opponent off 3 straight wins by 10 points or more - are 43-17 since 1997. This system tightens up to 13-4 Under over the last 3 seasons. It is also worth noting that teams fitting into this situation have combined with their opponent to average only 137.0 total points. We'll bet the Under.

3* NBA Friday Night Blowout on Celtics -13
Charlotte has lost 10 of its last 12 and those 10 losses have come by an average of 17.5 points. This team just hasn't been the same since moving Gerald Wallace to the Blazers. Playing at home Wednesday in a game against Indiana that could really help its playoff chances, Charlotte was kicked 111-88. I just don't see this Bobcats team staying with the highly motivated Celtics this evening.

Boston wants the No. 1 seed in the East to secure homecourt, but it is now looking up at the Bulls after losing to Memphis last game. That defeat has left the Celtics very hungry. Plus, Boston will show no mercy to a team that upset them last month. Prior to that defeat, the C's had won 6 in a row against Charlotte by an average of 18.8 points.

In addition, the Bobcats aren't expected to have Stephen Jackson in the lineup, which means they will be hurting for offense. We'll lay the points here.

5* Sweet 16 *BEST BET* on Wisconsin -4.5
Butler used up the last of its 9 lives against Pitt. After back-to-back miraculous victories, the defending national runner-ups are primed for a major letdown.

It will be extremely difficult for the Bulldogs to pull off another upset here. Butler has been able to take advantage of teams beating themselves by taking bad shots, turning the ball over, missing free throws, etc, but Wisconsin doesn

4* Sweet 16 CA$H COW (TBS) on Florida -3
This game is all about revenge for the Gators, who return all the key guys from a team that took BYU to overtime before losing in last year's Big Dance. That loss is all the motivation the Gators need to move on to the Elite Eight.

Jimmer Fredette has been sensational, but I'm confident Billy Donovan will be able to slow him down this time around. I absolutely love Donovan's experience in this matchup, having been here and won it all twice before.

The Gators are led by SEC Player of the Year Chandler Parsons. The 6-foot-10 forward is one of the most versatile threats in the country. The matchup problems he will be able to cause against a smaller BYU lineup will be a major key to Florida's success this evening.

The Gators are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. The Cougars are 30-62-2 ATS in their last 94 games as an underdog, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

Jimmer and the Cougars shot lights out against Gonzaga, but recent history tells us the chances of that happening again aren't very good. In fact, BYU is 0-6 ATS after a game in which it made 13 or more 3 point shots over the last 2 seasons. Take the Gators.

3* Sweet 16 SMASH (CBS) on San Diego State +1.5
It's been the Kemba Walker show to this point, but the Aztecs have the length and athleticism to make life extremely difficult on him this evening.

San Diego State has been all over the glass, which bodes very well for us this evening. Consider that SDSU is 11-0 ATS after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds this season. The Aztecs are also an impressive 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less while the Huskies are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

SDSU has experience playing against a team with a big time scorer. It allowed Jimmer Fredette to score 30 points in an 18-point win in the MWC tournament title game, but it held everyone else in check. I think this strategy will work again tonight. Walker may get his, but it won be enough. Take the Aztecs.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Nuggets -4
The fact that Tim Duncan is out is beside the point. The Nuggets have lost each of the season's first 3 meetings with the San Antonio, which means they will be extremely hungry tonight.

Trading Carmelo Anthony has lifted a big weight off Denver's shoulders. The team was clearly distracted early on when his future with the team was still up in the air. Now that he's gone Denver is playing free and easy, especially at home. The Nuggets are a perfect 6-0 at home since the All-Star break with those 6 wins coming by an average of 23.3 points.

Ty Lawson is really looking to push the ball now that he is running the show, and Denver's defense has picked up. The Nuggets are only allowing 94.7 points per game since the Melo trade - 8.4 below their season mark.

The Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning SU record and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.

With a big cushion in the West, the Spurs can afford to be very cautious down the stretch. Denver, meanwhile, would like to jump up and steal the #4 seed from Oklahoma City. "They (OKC) probably have too much of a gap on us," coach George Karl said. "But let's try to scare them. You never know in basketball." Lay the points.

4* NIT *BEST BET* on Wichita State -7.5
Wichita State enters tonight's NIT quarterfinal with a ton of confidence after knocking off top seed VA Tech on the road Sunday. Now, the Shockers are back at home where they have been taking opponents to school all season.

Wichita State is 13-4 in its own gym, where it is winning by 13.7 points per game. Nebraska came to Charles Koch Arena in the NIT first round and it left with a 27-point defeat.

After defeating Dayton at home, Charleston was able to pull off an upset at Cleveland State. That win, however, isn't enough to sell me on the Cougars away from home. Just a few weeks back, the Cougars were handled by 15 and 8 points respectively by Appalachian State and Western Carolina - two teams inferior to tonight's opponent.

Home court has been huge for Wichita State all season, and I expect nothing to change tonight. Lay the number as the much deeper Shockers wear the Cougars down to earn the win and cover.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Santa Clara +2.5
This is a game the Broncos want badly. They lost both regular season meetings with the Dons, but I fully expect the third time to be a charm. Santa Clara was favored in both of those matchups, which is an indication the books felt it was the better team. I believe the Broncos are the better team, and I expect them to prove it in this highly motivated spot.

San Francisco is just 17-35 ATS in its last 52 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less or pick. In addition, the Broncos are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings at San Francisco and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings overall. It is also worth noting that the Broncos are 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less.

Kevin Foster was 4 of 18, including 0 of 10 from 3-point range, when the Broncos fell by just 6 points at San Francisco last month. Motivated by that poor outing and beaming with confidence following a 36-point effort against Air Force, expect Foster to be the difference-maker in this one. Take the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Hawks +4.5
Atlanta has had Chicago's number, going 7-2 SU and ATS in this series the last 3 seasons, including a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at home during this span. After winning the season's first 3 meetings, Atlanta was crushed by 18 points at the United Center earlier this month. That defeat assures us that the Hawks will not be lacking any motivation tonight.

Overall, Atlanta has won its last 6 home games in this series, and those wins have come by an average of 14.0 points.

The Hawks will also benefit from having a day to gear up for this one. The Bulls have the difficult task of playing this one without a day of rest and preparation.

The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and I fully expect this trend to continue. Take Atlanta and the points.

4* NIT *BEST BET* on Washington State -5
When playing away from home, Oklahoma State has been one of the worst investments in college basketball in recent years. The Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in road lined games this season and 1-7 ATS as a road underdog or pick this season. It is also worth noting that OK State is just 4-12 ATS in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game - after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons, losing to these foes by an average score of 72.9 to 61.8.

In addition, the Cowboys are an awful 5-18 ATS as a road underdog or pick under coach Ford, losing these contests by an average score of 77.7 to 65.9. Looking back further, they are 15-37-2 ATS in their last 54 games as a road underdog. The Cougars, meanwhile, are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite. They get the call tonight.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets -12.5
Off a highly emotional upset win against the Thunder Sunday, expect the Raptors to fall flat on their face against a hungry Nuggets team looking to bounce back from a pair of close losses to Orlando and Miami.

Denver is a perfect 5-0 at home since the All-Star break, winning those games by an average of 21.4 points. Denver has also won 7 in a row against the Raptors with those wins coming by an average of 16.1 points. The Nuggets have also won their last 6 home games against the Raptors. The last 3 home wins have come by 18, 39 and 32 points.

The Raptors are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Lay the points.

3* NBA *Undervalued Underdog* on Jazz +8
I have had a lot of success in recent years playing teams in the second game of a back-to-back that are coming off a loss against a rested opponent off a win. That's because odds makers tend to overvalue the rested team, and that's precisely what they have done here.

Memphis is one of the teams Utah is chasing for the final playoff spot in the West, so we can expect the Jazz to leave it all on the floor tonight.

Utah has had a ton of success against the Grizzlies. It has won 40 of 55 meetings (since 1996), including 8 of the last 10. The Jazz, in fact, are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings and 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Memphis.

It is also certainly worth noting that Memphis is 4-13 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the 2nd half of the season since last season. It is also worth noting that Utah is a perfect 11-0 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games since 1996. In other words, the Jazz have been an extremely successful ATS team when scoring a lot of points. We'll take the points as Utah takes Memphis down to the wire tonight.

5* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Purdue -9
VCU has strung together back-to-back impressive performances against USC and Georgetown, but its Cinderella run comes to an end here.

The Rams have reached the round of 32 because of the great equalizer - the 3-point short. They were +24 points from beyond the arc against USC and +21 against Georgetown.

Purdue is one of the elite defensive teams in the country. It held its 1st round opponent (St. Peter's) to 23.8% (5 of 21) from three-point range, and I expect it to force the Rams into much more difficult looks as well.

Double-digit wins are nothing out of the ordinary for the Boilermakers. Of their 26 victories, 22 have come by at least 10 points.

This is a quality VCU team, but it isn't as good as some of the teams we've seen in the dance in recent years. Purdue, meanwhile, boasts a very experienced and talented squad. Expect the Boilermakers to do an excellent job of defending the three and for JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore to be too much for the Rams to handle. Lay the points.

3* Sunday NBA SMASH on Hawks -7
Motivated by back-to-back blowout losses to Denver and Miami, expect the Hawks to bounce back strong here against a Pistons squad they have owned at home.

The Hawks have won 5 in a row at home in this series with those wins coming by an average score of 94 to 86. Plus, Detroit is just 7-27 this season away from home, entering this contest with 6 straight road defeats. Those 6 losses have come by an average of 11.0 points.

Atlanta defeated Detroit by 15 on the road last month, but the Pistons haven't exactly been a strong revenge team. In fact, Detroit is just 14-25 ATS when out to avenge a home loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Pistons are losing these contests by an average of 8.5 points. Take the Hawks.

5* Big Dance *BEST BET* on Wisconsin -3
K-State had its fun a year ago when it made a deep run in the dance. Now it's Wisconsin's turn. Motivated by last year's poor performance in the second round, I expect Wisconsin to cruise into the Sweet 16.

K-State isn't as good as it was a season ago when Jacob Pullen benefited from partner in crime Denis Clemente. The Badgers, meanwhile, are better due to the emergence of Jordan Taylor.

Wisconsin has more offensive balance and it is the superior defensive team. The Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Big 12, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.

The Wildcats are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a win, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less and 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as an underdog. Lay the points.

3* NBA Saturday Night Blowout on Grizzlies -9
Indiana is due for a major letdown following last night's emotionally and physically draining overtime win over the Bulls. Memphis, meanwhile, finds itself in major bounce back mode following an embarrassing loss to the Knicks.

Indiana has really struggled against the Grizz, going 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings. It is also worth noting that Memphis has won the last 3 in the series by 11 points or more.

The Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win and 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games when playing without a day of rest.

The Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing with 1 day of rest and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. This is a good spot for the Grizz against a team they have owned. Lay the points.

3* NCAA Tourney *Afternoon Delight* on UCLA +5.5
Getting a scare from Michigan State late, in a game the Bruins controlled throughout, should have them very focused when they hit the floor against Florida this afternoon. The Gators, meanwhile, won't have the same focus, likely riding a little too high following their extreme blowout win over UCSB.

Besides the situational parameters described above, I don't think UCLA is getting the credit it deserves here. We're talking about a team that played Kansas to a 1-point game on the road and defeated BYU and St. John's when they were at full strength. Florida was blown out at home by Ohio State by 18 points and many of its good wins have come by narrow margins.

The Bruins are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. UCLA has been at its best against the best this season, and I expect no different here.

3* NBA SMASH on Warriors +5.5
With 3 prior losses to the Suns this season, including a 24-point pounding in the last matchup, you can bet the Warriors will be hungry tonight.

As if those 3 defeats aren't enough motivation, blowing an 18-point lead in a loss to Dallas last game should do the trick.

The Suns have lost 4 in a row, and I expect their struggles to continue with Steve Nash at less than 100 percent. Nash has been severely slowed down by a pelvis injury. "He tried [referring to Wednesday's game at New Orleans], but he's not the same guy," coach Alvin Gentry said. "I didn't expect him to be...He's not going to be at 100 percent, and with him that's important that he has the zip."

While Nash should still be decent on the offensive end, he will be a big liability on defense against Golden State's quicker and more athletic guards.

The Suns are a poor 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. In addition, the underdog is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings. Take the points.

3* NCAA Tournament *Undervalued Underdog* on Georgia +5.5
Washington was able to win the Pac-10 tourney, but only by the skin of its teeth. Two of its wins came by just 2 points and one of those was in overtime. Washington failed to cover the number in both of those games and is just 1-5 ATS in its last 6.

The Huskies are not the same team that made a nice little run in last year's big dance. I've seen one example after another this season of how badly they miss Quincy Pondexter.

Georgia is coming off a loss to Alabama in the SEC tourney, but that actually bodes well for us here. Consider that the Dawgs are 18-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. They are winning by an average score of 69.4 to 64.6 in these spots. Also, the Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss, 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU loss and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog.

The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.

The Huskies barely made it out of round 1 last year, sneaking past Marquette by just 2 points. I'll take this generous number in another matchup that should go right down to the wire.

5* NCAA Tournament *BEST BET* on Georgetown -5.5
Motivated by 4 straight losses to close out the season, expect this experienced Georgetown team to bounce back strong in round 1 of the dance.

The Hoyas will also draw motivation from last year's shocking loss to Ohio in the round of 64.

Georgetown should also get a boost from the return of Chris Wright. They've been without his 13.1 ppg since Feb. 23.

Georgetown has proven that it is a force to be reckoned with on a neutral floor. The Hoyas, in fact, are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as a favorite.

VCU is coming off a big win over USC in Wednesday's play-in game and that bodes extremely well for us here. Consider that the Rams are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Lay the points.

4* Big Dance Early Money on Texas -10
Oakland has played some top notch competition this season, but it has really struggled in these games. The Grizzlies lost to West Virginia by 24, Purdue by 15, Illinois by 11, Michigan by 18 and Ohio State by 29. In other words, Texas should have no problem taking care of business here.

Texas will not be lacking any motivation following a disappointing performance against Kansas in the Big 12 tourney title game. Plus, the Longhorns will draw added motivation from a 1-point overtime loss to Wake Forest in the first round of the 2010 big dance.

The fact that Oakland enters the tourney on a hot streak actually bodes well for us. Consider that plays against an underdog - hot team having won 8 or more of its last 10 games, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA tournament, are 38-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are losing by an average of 16.7 points.

Texas is an impressive 20-9 ATS in all lined games this season. The Longhorns are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Take Texas.

4* NCAA Tournament Round 1 Steal on Bucknell +10
Riding high emotionally and still physically drained from winning 5 games in 5 days to take the Big East tournament, UConn is primed for a letdown. While I think Kemba Walker and company will find a way to win this one, I think the Bison are a steal catching double digits.

Bucknell is not a school to be taken lightly in this tournament. The Bison have actually won their last two first round games in the big dance, upsetting Kansas in 2005 and Arkansas in 2006. Some of you might recall that Kansas was a #3 seed in the 2005 dance.

It most certainly can't be ignored that UConn is just 4-12 ATS in all first round tournament games under coach Calhoun. Also under Calhoun, the Huskies are 69-84 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points and 26-39 ATS in road games after 5 or more consecutive wins. Take the points.

5* NCAA Tournament Round 1 Game of the Year on Wofford +8.5
BYU clearly isn't the same team without Brandon Davies, going just 2-3 ATS with a pair or blowout losses since his suspension. I believe the Cougars would have their hands full with Wofford even if Davies was in the lineup.

Wofford brings back 4 starters from a team that played Wisconsin to a 4-point game in the first round of last year's NCAA tournament. That loss is all the motivation the Terriers need to give the Cougars a run for the money.

BYU has been a terrible investment in tournament play. In fact, it is just 4-13 ATS in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons. The Cougars are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 NCAA Tournament games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games.

The Terriers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points, 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning SU record. Take the points.

4* NCAA Tournament Big Chalk Blowout on Florida -13
Florida enters the big dance off an embarrassing loss to Kentucky in the SEC tournament championship game. You might also recall that the Gators were defeated in OT in the first round of the NCAA tourney a year ago. Both of these defeats should serve as more than enough motivation for the Gators to run up the score on UC Santa Barbara.

The Gauchos are just happy to be here after upsetting a Long Beach State squad in the Big West tourney title game that has defeated them by 16 and 18 points during the regular season. Already feeling great about what they've accomplished, the Gauchos won't be ready for a Florida squad that is a legit Final Four contender.

Florida also has the good fortune of playing this one close to home in Tampa while Santa Barbara has had to make the long cross-country trip.

The Gators are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games overall. The Gauchos are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 13.0 points or more. Having won two national titles, Billy Donovan knows how to prepare his kids. They'll be ready to go in this spot. Lay the points.

3* NBA SMASH on Celtics -10
Boston is coming off one of its worst performances of the season, a 79-88 loss at New Jersey. With that defeat, it gave Chicago an opportunity to take over the top spot in the East last night. Motivated by that ugly defeat, and looking to reclaim a share of the East lead, expect Boston to take care of business on its home floor this evening.

The Celtics already own 11 and 12-point wins over the Pacers this season. Plus, they are 6-0 at home against Indiana since Garnett and Allen arrived in Boston, winning these games by an average of 12.8 points.

Indiana is coming off a huge home-and-home sweep of the Knicks, earning last night's win on a buzzer-beater by Danny Granger. It will be very difficult for the Pacers to bounce back from such an emotionally and physically draining victory. The Pacers are a lousy 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games when playing without a day of rest.

The Celtics are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games following a SU loss. Expect Boston to put the clamps on defensively on its way to a win and cover. Lay the number.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Wichita State -4
Nebraska has struggled on the road all season, going 2-10 in all away games and 1-7 in true road contests. Nebraska's road struggles extend much further back than this and those struggles have also been reflected against the point spread. Consider that the Cornhuskers are 20-41-1 ATS in their last 62 road games and 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less.

Wichita State is a rock solid 12-4 at home this season with an average winning margin of 12.8 points. It is worth noting that the Shockers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and the Huskers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus the Missouri Valley.

The Shockers are deep and talented, and they play at both ends of the floor. With the home court advantage on their side, expect them to stretch this one out late.

3* Never Lost NCAAB *Undervalued Underdog* on Miami Ohio +8.5
Miami Ohio is a better team than its record might lead you to believe. The Redhawks went out and scheduled Duke, San Diego State, Ohio State, Xavier, Cincinnati and Kansas. Playing this top notch competition helped Miami during its conference schedule and should help it during this tournament.

The Redhawks actually defeated Xavier by 11 points, a team Rhode Island lost to by 27 on its home floor. What this proves is that Miami Ohio can certainly hang with the Rams this evening.

The over/under line often tells us a lot about what odds makers expect the outcome to be against the spread, and I believe that is the case tonight. Fading the Rams at home when they are facing a total between 130 to 134.5 has never lost under coach Baron. This trend is a perfect 9-0 ATS all-time.

It is also worth noting that the Rams are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games as a home favorite and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. The Red Hawks are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. Take the points.

3* Tuesday NBA SMASH on Knicks -4
Motivated by back-to-back embarrassing losses, including one to Indiana Sunday, expect the Knicks to have their revenge tonight.

Right away I like the fact that plays on road favorites out to avenge an upset loss to an opponent, provided they are coming off an upset loss at home, are an impressive 81-40 ATS since 1996.

In addition, NY has been strong on the road. In fact, it is 23-9 ATS in road games this season. It is also worth noting that the road team is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in this series.

The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less while the Pacers are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Also, the Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. Expect the Knicks to get their revenge.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN2) on Charleston -5
Tough break for higher seed Dayton having to go on the road because the Opening Round NCAA Tournament games are taking place in its gym. I believe that break will cost the Flyers. In addition, it will be difficult for Dayton to bounce back so quickly after losing to Richmond Sunday with a big dance berth on the line. This is not where the Flyers want to be playing.

Charleston has had a week to prepare for a game, and it should benefit from playing at home, where it is 12-1 this season with an average victory margin of 16.0 points. The Cougars are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.

Lastly, it will be to Dayton's demise that Charleston takes extremely good care of the rock. Consider that Dayton is 0-6 ATS versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game this season, losing to these foes by an average of 8.2 points. Lay the points.

4* Monday NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -5.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses, included a brutally embarrassing 33-point loss at Miami last game, expect Memphis to bounce back strong at home against one of the worst road teams in the NBA this evening.

The Clippers are just 8-26 on the road this season. They are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 road games, 18-42 ATS in their last 60 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog.

Memphis won the season's first meeting in LA by 1 point and the numbers suggest the Clippers won't have their revenge. In fact, they are on a 12-29 ATS slide in road games when looking to avenge a close loss of 3 points or less, losing these contests by an average score of 101.6 to 91.7.

The Clippers are coming off a strong offensive performance (especially in the first half) against Washington in their last game, but that doesn't figure to do them any favors tonight. Consider that LA is 0-9 ATS in road games after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. It is losing by an average score of 105.2 to 94.3 in this situation.

The Grizzlies are 32-15 ATS in their last 47 games overall, 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU loss, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 23-6 ATS in their last 29 versus the Western Conference. Lay the points.

3* Sunday NBA SMASH on Warriors -6.5
Minnesota is just 5-27 on the road this season, where it is losing by an average of 9.2 points. Golden State will not be showing the T-Wolves any mercy this evening after losing in Minnesota on Feb. 27. Prior to that defeat, the Warriors had won 5 straight in the series by an average of 15.0 points.

The numbers suggest this is a terrific spot to fade the T-Wolves. In fact, plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points coming off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival and up against an opponent off a home win, are 32-9 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are losing by an average of 9.0 points. It is also worth noting that this system is a near-perfect 10-1 ATS the last 3 seasons.

The Warriors have never lost at home following a game in which they scored at least 110 points under coach Smart. They are a perfect 8-0 ATS under this parameter with an average margin of victory of 11.3 points. Take the Warriors.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Duke -3.5
This game is all about payback for Duke. The Blue Devils have been on a mission in the ACC tournament following a loss to UNC in the regular season finale that cost them a league title. They have looked impressive in wins over Maryland and VA Tech while UNC has been lucky to survive Miami and Clemson. Expect Duke, which has won 9 of the last 12 ACC tournament titles, to complete its mission today.

Going to the numbers, we find that plays on favorites looking to avenge a road loss to an opponent, provided the chalk team is playing its 2nd game away from home in 3 days, are 64-29 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 7.6 points.

In addition, UNC is just 2-10 ATS in all conference tournament games under Roy Williams. It is also worth noting that the Tar Heels are a lousy 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Duke, meanwhile, is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or fewer. Take Duke.

3* NBA Saturday Night SMASH on Bucks -2
This is a letdown spot for the 76ers following Friday

5* MWC Game of the Year on San Diego State -2
BYU is not the same team without Brandon Davies, which has me confident that San Diego State can avenge its 2 previous defeats to the Cougars this season.

The Aztecs are an impressive 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Cougars are a dismal 30-61-2 ATS in their last 93 games as an underdog and 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win.

Fredette had to go off big time for the Cougars to make the title game, and I don't see SDSU letting that happen here, especially since the Aztecs allowed him to score 40-plus during the season. Motivated by those two prior defeats, expect the third time to be a charm for SDSU.

4* Pac-10 Tourney *Power Play* on Washington -2
Washington looked to be the better team in its matchups with Arizona during the regular season. The Huskies defeated the Wildcats by 17 at home and lost by a single point on the road. Defending tournament champion Washington, which is looking to atone for a disappointing regular season, should prove to be the better side on a neutral floor today.

Plays on neutral court teams - an explosive offensive team (>=76 PPG) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG) after 15+ games and after a win by 10 points or more, are an impressive 29-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 10.1 points.

Also, the Huskies are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Take the Huskies.

5* Pac-10 Game of the Year on Washington -9
Oregon has strung together a couple wins in the Pac-10 tourney, but I believe the Ducks will run out of gas tonight. Riding high off a blowout win over UCLA, Oregon is primed for a major letdown.

The Huskies got a big monkey off their back by finally defeating rival Washington State. Now, I expect them to have their revenge against Oregon. Washington defeated the Ducks by 18 points in the season's first meeting and then got beat overlooking them in the next matchup. That loss will serve as the driving force behind a comfortable win tonight.

Going to the numbers, we find that plays on favorites out to avenge a road loss to an opponent, playing their 2nd away game in 3 days, are 40-15 ATS the last 3 seasons.

In addition, Oregon is 4-12 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as an underdog. Lay the points.

3* SEC SMASH on Tennessee +3.5
After losing to Florida in OT and by 1 point in 2 meetings this season, expect the Vols to break through against the Gators this evening.

Tennessee has been one of the most impressive underdogs in the country in recent years. In fact, the Volunteers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and 28-11-1 ATS in their last 40 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that Florida is just 5-13 ATS as a favorite this season.

Also, Tennessee has either defeated the Gators or lost by fewer than 3 points in 11 of the last 15 meetings. Take Tennessee.

3* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +4.5
The Bobcats, which have lost 6 in a row and were embarrassed at Portland last week, will be out for revenge tonight. Leading scorer Stephen Jackson missed the Bobcats' game at Portland. He'll be back on the floor tonight, and I expect him to make all the difference in the world.

It can be good time to jump on a team when that team hasn't been covering the spread. That's because odds makers continue to adjust their lines in favor of the slumping side. With this in mind, consider that Charlotte is 9-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. It is winning by an average score of 100.2 to 95.0 in this situation. We'll take the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Mavericks -5.5
This is a letdown spot for the Knicks and a bounce back spot for the Mavs. It will be difficult for the Knicks to bring as much energy needed tonight following such an emotional victory on Melo's buzzer-beater last night. Dallas, meanwhile, will have no trouble getting up for this one after blowing a late 7-point lead and the game to New Orleans.

For the books to favor the Mavs by this many points following 4 ATS defeats in a row, knowing the amount of backers New York has, I have to believe odds makers are confident in Dallas tonight. And why shouldn't they be?

Dallas has won 16 of 18 meetings in this series, and it holds a big edge in the backcourt with Chauncey Billups still likely out.

Dallas is 20-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Lay the points.

3* Big 12 Tourney *BEST BET* on Missouri -3
After taking the Aggies to OT on the road during the regular season, I expect the Tigers to have their revenge in front of a home atmosphere in Kansas City, MO.

Plays on a favorite looking to avenge a road loss to an opponent, provided they are playing their 2nd game away from home in 3 days, are an impressive 61-25 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 7.9 points.

In addition, the Tigers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

Texas A&M won the regular season meeting and is ranked. Yet, Mizzou is the team laying points. Odds makers know what a big difference having the crowd support can mean in these games. Expect the Tigers to feed off the energy of the crowd on their way to a win and cover.

3* Big Ten Tourney *BEST BET* on Indiana +4.5
Indiana has lost 8 in a row, but with thousands of Hoosiers packed inside Conseco, coach Crean's club will feed off the fan support to cover this number.

Going to the numbers, we find that plays on neutral court teams looking to avenge a home loss to an opponent and off at least 2 straight losses against conference rivals, are a dominant 40-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have only lost by an average of 1.6 points.

The Nittany Lions have been terrific when playing the role of the underdog, but they haven't fared nearly as well when the shoe's on the other foot. In fact, the Nittany Lions are 2-5-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. We'll take the points.

3* Conference Tourney Super System Power Play on Oregon pk
The Ducks struggled down the stretch, losing their last 4, and they were also swept in the regular-season series with ASU. Motivated by a poor finish, and those 2 losses to the Sun Devils, expect the third time to be a charm for Oregon.

Oregon proved what it is capable of this season with wins over USC, Washington State and Washington, and I expect it to play up to its potential in this same-season double revenge spot.

History is certainly on our side here, considering plays on neutral court teams out to avenge a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, if that foe is coming off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, are an impressive 32-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is 16-4 ATS the last 3 seasons and 1-0 ATS this season.

It is also worth noting that ASU has lost its last 7 games away from home. Expect the Ducks to break through against the Sun Devils tonight.

4* Humpday NBA Blowout on Magic -8.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and an embarrassing home loss to Sacramento last month, expect the Magic to show no mercy in California's capitol city tonight.

Star center Dwight Howard was forced to miss Monday's game against Portland, serving a mandatory one-game suspension for picking up his 16th technical foul. I especially expect Howard to deliver in this one.

Plays on road favorites out to avenging an upset loss to an opponent, provided they are coming off an upset loss at home, are an impressive 81-39 ATS since 1996.

In addition, the Magic are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Kings, meanwhile, are 14-29-1 ATS in their last 44 games as a home underdog, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog period and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. Lay the points with the Magic tonight.

4* Double Never Lost Conference Tourney Blowout on Baylor -7
Motivated by back-to-back losses to close out the regular season, and an upset loss at Oklahoma on Feb. 2, Baylor will be ready to roll tonight.

In fact, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are looking to avenge an upset loss on the road to an opponent - a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record - are 32-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 13.3 points.

I have also uncovered 2 play against trends that have never lost. Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Capel as a neutral court underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. The Sooners have lost these contests by an average of 16.2 points. Also, Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Capel in conference tournament games, losing these contests by an average of 8.3 points.

We'll lay the points with Baylor in this motivated spot.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks +5.5
Motivated by back-to-back home losses to Oklahoma City and New York, and further motivated by a 24-point loss to the Lakers last month, expect Atlanta to give LA all it wants and more tonight.

Because LA crushed the Hawks 2 weeks back, it will be much more interested in upcoming games against Miami, Dallas and Orlando.

Atlanta has won 3 straight at home against the Lakers with the last 2 wins coming by double digits. In fact, the home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

In addition, plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 4 or more consecutive unders, are 55-26 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are only winning by an average of 2.9 points. Also, the Lakers are 2-14 ATS after 4 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by an average score of 96.8 to 95.4. Pound the Hawks.

4* NCAAB Conference Tournament Blowout on Akron -12.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses to close out the regular season, and further motivated by an upset loss at Eastern Michigan last month, expect Akron to run up the score tonight.

Home court will prove to be huge for the Zips tonight. They have won 7 straight on their home floor. Eastern Mich, meanwhile, has dropped its last 7 on the road.

The Zips are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. The home team is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Akron.

The Zips have won their last 3 home games against the Eagles by an average of 18.0 points. We'll lay the number in this highly motivated spot.

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Hornets +10.5
Odds makers have overreacted to Chris Paul's expected absence with this line, especially considering the Bulls enter off an emotionally and physically exhausting win over Miami.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points - tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days against an opponent playing 6 or more games in 10 days - are 76-39 ATS the last 5 seasons.

Also, plays against favorites of 10 or more points - tired team playing 6 or more games in 10 days and with a winning record on the season - are 167-102 ATS the last 5 seasons.

The Hornets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take them catching 10-plus this evening.

4* Monday NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +3
The Thunder were pushed to OT by the Suns Sunday, but I believe the Grizzlies used more energy in their win over the Mavs yesterday. Memphis left it all on the floor to erase an 18-point deficit and won on Zack Randolph's 17-footer with 0.3 left. It will be extremely difficult for the Grizzlies to get back up for this one after such an emotional win, especially against a Thunder team with payback in mind.

OKC will be motivated by a 4-point loss at home to the Grizzlies last month. The Thunder are one of the premier revenge teams in the NBA. In fact, they are 17-8 ATS when out to avenge a loss to an opponent this season. In addition, they are 8-1 ATS in road games when looking for revenge, provided they allowed their opponent to score 100 points or more on them in the previous loss.

The Thunder are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. They are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings at Memphis. Also, the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take the Thunder and the points.

3* CAA Championship SMASH (ESPN) on VCU +5
VCU enters tonight's CAA championship game with tons of momentum on its side after taking down top seed George Mason by 16 points Sunday. Plus, it has a bone to pick with Old Dominion.

The Monarchs defeated the Rams last month and they also knocked them out of the CAA tourney a season ago. Those two defeats assure us that VCU will be very hungry and focused tonight.

VCU has either defeated Old Dominion or lost by 4 points or less in 9 of the last 10 and 12 of the last 14 meetings.

The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. The Monarchs, meanwhile, are juts 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games as a favorite. Take the points.

3* NBA National TV SMASH (ABC) on Heat -5
Motivated by 3 straight defeats, including a brutally embarrassing loss at San Antonio, expect LeBron James and company to come storming back at home today.

As if its recent slide isn't enough motivation, 2 losses to Chicago already this season will add fuel to the fire.

Right away, I love the fact that plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a road loss by 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are an impressive 74-38 ATS since 1996. Facing an average point spread of 5.6 points, teams fitting into this situation have won by 8.8 points on average.

It is certainly worth noting that both of Miami's losses to the Bulls this season have come at Chicago. The Heat have been a different team at home, where they are 22-7 with a 9.5-point average margin of victory. It is also worth noting that the home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

4* Never Lost Big Ten *BEST BET* on Minnesota -4.5
It's been a disappointing season for the Gophers, but I fully expect them to put all that behind them on senior day. Motivated by 4 straight defeats and a 3-point loss at Penn State last month, expect Minnesota to take out its frustrations on a Nittany Lions squad that is just 2-8 when playing away from home this season.

Minnesota enters off an extremely disappointing performance at Northwestern, but that actually bodes well for us today. Consider that Minnesota is a perfect 6-0 ATS under coach Smith in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more. The Golden Gophers are winning in this situation by an average score of 71.7 to 50.2.

The Nittany Lions are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less and 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings at Minnesota. We'll take the Gophers in this one.

4* Big 12 Game of the Week on Colorado -4.5
Motivated by a loss to the league-worst Iowa State in its last game, and a loss at Nebraska earlier this season, expect Colorado to bury the Huskers Saturday evening.

Taking Colorado off a defeat has been pure gold. In fact, the Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. We also can't overlook the dominance of the home team in this series. The home squad is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the Cornhuskers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Colorado.

Colorado has been tough as nails at home where it is 14-2 this season. It has won its last two home games over two of the best teams in the league (Kansas State, Texas). Nebraska, meanwhile, has struggled on the road. The Huskers are just 1-6 in true road games. Lay the points.

5* WAC Game of the Year on New Mexico State -5.5
The Aggies are a much better team than their record might lead you to believe. They are especially tough at home, where they are 6-1 in league play. That lone loss came by a narrow margin to league champ Utah State Wednesday. That was New Mexico State's 4th straight defeat, and it will have the Aggies extremely motivated here on senior night.

New Mexico State will be further motivated by an embarrassing 19-point loss at Nevada earlier this season.

All 6 of the Aggies' WAC home wins have come by at least 8 points. They should have no trouble covering this number against a Nevada squad that is just 3-12 away from home this season. The Aggies are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Wolf Pack are just 6-21 ATS in their last 27 games versus a team with a losing SU record. Lay the points.

4* In-state Rivalry Showdown on Oklahoma +1
I fully expect Oklahoma to bring its 8-game losing streak to an end today. While the Cowboys have been solid at home, they have been atrocious on the road. In fact, Oklahoma State has lost it last 8 road contests, and 6 of those defeats have come by double digits. The Cowboys are a dismal 19-41-2 ATS in their last 62 road games. Also, they are only 4-13 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons, losing these contests by an average score of 75.0 to 65.4.

The Sooners are 11-4 at home this season, and they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Look for the Sooners to leave it all on the floor to come away with a win on senior day.

4* SEC Game of the Month on Alabama -4.5
If Bama wants any chance of making the Big Dance, it better win today. Motivated by back-to-back defeats, including an embarrassing loss at Florida, I expect the Tide to do just that.

Alabama is a perfect 15-0 at home this season with an average winning margin of 19.2 points. The Crimson Tide are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. They are also 14-5 ATS in their last 19 vs. the SEC.

In addition, Bama has never lost under coach Grant when facing a poor pressure defensive team (forcing 14 or less turnovers/game) 15-plus games into the season. The Tide are a perfect 6-0 ATS versus these foes, taking them down by an average score of 67.7 to 55.3. Bet Bama.

4* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Warriors +9.5
The Warriors will be extremely motivated when they step on the court tonight as they look to avenge last week's 115-93 loss to Boston. In addition to this being a highly motivated spot for the Warriors, they should also benefit from catching the Celtics at a good time. The veteran Celtics' starters have been forced to play significant minutes lately due to a short and ineffective bench. Key reserve Glen "Big Baby" Davis will not be in action this evening, and the new Celtics are yet to find a rhythm. Plus, Ray Allen will be playing with a banged up leg that forced him to miss Thursday's practice.

The Warriors are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 vs. the NBA Atlantic division. They are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings at Boston. Also, the underdog is 16-4 ATS in the last 20 meetings.

Boston is a lousy 9-23 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 3 seasons. It is also just 5-16 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season, only winning by an average score of 93.7 to 91.2 in this situation. Take the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week (ESPN) on Bulls +2
After such an emotionally and physically draining comeback victory over the Miami Heat last night, the Magic won't have enough left in the tank to conquer this hungry Bulls squad.

Chicago knows how Miami feels, having blown a 17-point halftime lead against Atlanta Wednesday. That loss will have the Bulls extremely motivated this evening.

This is an ideal spot to go against Orlando since its starters logged so many minutes last night. In fact, the Magic are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

It hasn't been good practice to fade Chicago following a defeat. That's because the Bulls are an impressive 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss. The Bulls are also 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog and 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. It is also worth noting that Chicago is a perfect 7-0-1 ATS in its last 8 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Great spot for Chicago.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Jazz -3.5
Working off a strong performance against the East-leading Boston Celtics, and with 2 days to gear up, expect the Jazz to get back in the win column at home tonight.

Denver has been rolling since the Carmelo Anthony trade, but this is a tough spot for the Nuggets. This will be their second game in as many nights and their third game in 4 days. We should see some fatigue start to set in here, which accentuates the loss of Danilo Gallinari. Plus, both Raymond Felton and Ty Lawson have been dealing with the flu. With all this in mind, it is worth noting that Denver is 12-23 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back over the last 2 seasons. It is also 15-28 ATS when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons. More recently, the Nuggets are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games when playing without a day of rest.

Utah has been dominant at home in this series, winning 27 of its last 31 home games against Denver. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the Nuggets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Utah.

Lastly, the Nuggets are 8-19-4 ATS in their last 31 games following a win of more than 10 points and 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. Take the Jazz.

4* MVC Tourney *BEST BET* on Drake +1
Extremely motivated by a 90-64 loss at Bradley in their regular season finale, expect the Bulldogs to pay the Braves back in the first round of the MVC tourney.

Right away I love the fact that plays on neutral court underdogs coming off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival, and going up against an opponent off a home win, are 74-36 ATS since 1997. This system is already a perfect 3-0 ATS this season.

One thing you don't want to do is play against Drake when it is coming off a defeat. That's because the Bulldogs are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points, 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a losing SU record and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Take Drake tonight.

3* Pac-10 Power Play on Arizona -15
The Wildcats will be hungry tonight. Motivated by back-to-back losses, including an embarrassing 71-49 loss at UCLA last game, and out to avenge a 1-point loss at Oregon State earlier this season, expect Arizona to roll at home this evening. The Cats will be further motivated by the fact that a win guarantees them at least a share of the Pac-10 title.

Arizona is a perfect 15-0 at home, where it is winning by an average of 16.6 points. Oregon State is just 1-10 when playing away from home this season, including 0-7 in Pac-10 play. Those 7 defeats have come by an average of 17.7 points.

In addition, Arizona is 9-1 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The Wildcats are also 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. The Beavers, meanwhile, are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Lay the points with Arizona in this highly motivated spot.

4* NCAAB *Underdog Shocker* on New Mexico State +7
Utah State doesn't have anything left to play for. It has already locked up a school-record fourth consecutive Western Athletic Conference regular-season title. New Mexico State, meanwhile, has plenty on the line. It can grab the No. 2 seed to earn a double-bye in the WAC tourney by winning its final 2 regular-season games.

New Mexico State is undefeated at home (6-0) in conference play, and it will no doubt be jacked up to take on the best team in the league. The fact that New Mexico State enters off three straight defeats means it will play with an even greater sense of desperation here.

New Mexico State defeated the Utah State Aggies in the WAC tourney last year, and it hasn't had much trouble with Utah State at home in recent years. In fact, New Mexico State has won 7 of the last 9 at home in this series.

New Mexico State is 9-2 ATS when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. It is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 home games and the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Take the points.