4* Magic/Rockets NBA Heavy Hitter on Magic +

This is a great spot to back Orlando as a double-digit road dog against the Rockets. The Magic will be motivated to snap a 4-game losing streak and are showing some solid value here due to their lopsided 15-point loss at home to the Cavaliers.

The big key here is Houston is in a prime letdown spot, as they pulled out a big 100-98 win on the road over the Clippers, which concluded a difficult 4-game stretch on the road. I just don't see the Rockets coming out highly motivated here, which will make it hard for them to cover a massive spread like this.

Orlando has thrived on the road this season. The Magic are an impressive 14-6 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games when playing against a team with a winning record. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100+ points in their last game and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the Western Conference. These trends combine to form a strong 80% (39-10) system in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando!

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Kings +

The Kings are showing some great value here as a 5-point home underdog against the Hawks. Atlanta comes in off a 91-86 road win over the Lakers yesterday and are expected to rest Horford, while Korver and Scott both sit with injuries. We have seen the Hawks lose recently at Philadelphia 84-92 and at Denver 102-115. With a 10-game lead over the Cavs, Atlanta can afford to not put their best foot forward in these tough scheduling spots.

Another key here is that Sacramento will be returning home from a lengthy 8-game road trip, which saw them go just 2-6 SU and 2-6 ATS. The important thing here to note is that the Kings are an impressive 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Atlanta on the other hand is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 following a SU win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games overall. These trends combine to form a strong 82% (23-5) system in favor of the Kings. Take Sacramento!

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Pacers -

These two teams are headed in completely different directions down the stretch run and I think we are seeing some solid value here due to the difference in records. Toronto is 39-27, while Indiana is 30-35. However, the Raptors are a mere 2-10 over their last 12, while the Pacers 10-2 over their last 12.

Not only is Indiana playing the better basketball of the two, they have a big advantage here in terms of scheduling. The Pacers come in off a days rest, while the Raptors will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in their last 4 days overall.

Another big key here is that Indiana won't be overlooking Toronto, as they have lost each of the previous two meetings this season. Home teams playing with double revenge against an opponent that's off a upset home loss by 15+ points as a favorite are 61-28 ATS since 1996. That's a 69% system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana!

5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Wizards -

After an ugly stretch that saw them lose 6-straight, Washington has returned to form with three straight blowout wins over the Hornets (95-69), Grizzlies (107-87) and Kings (113-97) and I look for them to carry over that momentum with a win at home against the Trail Blazers.

Portland has won 3 straight and 8 of 9 overall, but find themselves in a difficult scheduling spot. The Trail Blazers not only will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but this will be their 3rd game in the last 4 days overall. Adding to this is the fact that the Trail Blazers are just a 16-14 team on the road, compared to 28-6 at home.

Washington will also be playing with revenge here, as they lost 96-103 at Portland back on Jan. 24. The Wizards are an impressive 30-18 ATS in their last 48 when revenging a loss to an opponent where they allowed 100+ points. Washington is also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win by more than 10 points, while the Blazers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games with a total set at 195 to 199.5 points. These trends combine to form a strong 68% (43-20) system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!

5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Magic/Cavs UNDER 201.5

The books have set the mark too high for this one, which isn't a big surprise given that the Cavaliers come in off a game against the Spurs where the two teams combined for 253 points. Prior to that Cleveland had held Dallas to 94 points and the Suns to just 79 in their last two games. Orlando isn't a great defensive team, but have been playing much better on that side of the ball since making a coaching change. The Magic have held 12 of their 15 opponents under the century mark. It's also worth noting that each of the two previous meetings this season have seen 187 and 180 points. 

UNDER is 14-5 in the Cavaliers last 19 after allowing 105+ points in their last game, 8-1 in their last 9 off a win by 6 points or less and 13-4 in their last 17 games played on Sunday.  These trends combine to form a strong 78% (35-10) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Nets/76ers OVER

I'm expecting these two teams to fly over the total tonight. Brooklyn has allowed 100+ in three straight and 5 of their last 6. The only exception being a home game against a Utah team that is playing extremely well on the defensive end. The 76ers were able to snap out of their recent shooting funk with 114 points on 47% shooting in a home win over the Kings last time out and I look for that to carry over to this one. The other big key here is that the 76ers are not a strong defensive team and will gladly let this game turn into a shootout. 

OVER is 22-9 in the 76ers last 31 home games after playing two straight as a home dog, 5-0 in their last 5 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 13-4 in their last 17 home games versus teams who are called for 21 or fewer fouls per game. OVER is also 4-1 in the Nets last 5 when facing an opponent who allowed 100 or more points in their last game. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (44-14) system. Take the OVER!

4* UConn/Tulsa AAC Vegas Insider on Connecticut -

The Huskies are showing some great value here as a mere 2-point favorite against Tulsa. Connecticut is once again hitting their stride when it matters the most and I look for them to have no problem getting past the Golden Hurricane an advancing to the American Athletic title game. The Huskies lost at Tulsa 58-66 in the first meeting, but came back with a dominating 70-45 win at home in the rematch. I'm not expecting that big of a blowout, but I do think the Huskies will win here comfortably. 

Connecticut is 39-17 ATS in their last 56 neutral site games, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 following a game in which they covered the spread and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 following a SU win. These trends combine to form a strong 71% (55-23) system in favor of the Huskies. Take Connecticut!

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Raptors -

Toronto has lost 9 of their last 10, but a lot of that has had to do with it being a brutal stretch for the Raptors. During this stretch Toronto has played just two home games and they came against two of the best teams in the league in Golden State and Cleveland. Retuning home against a below average Miami team is the perfect spot for the Raptors to bounce back.

Miami has gone a respectable 8-6 over their last 14 games, but it's not as impressive as you might think. Those 8 wins have come against the likes of the Knicks (twice) 76ers, Magic, Suns, Lakers, Kings, and Nets.

The Heat won and covered last time out, but are just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 after covering the number in their last game and just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 after having won 2 of their last 3. Miami is also a mere 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. These trends combine to form a strong 75% (41-14) system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto!

5* NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Maryland -

The Terrapins are showing some exceptional value here as a 2-point home favorite against the Hoosiers. Indiana comes in off a big 71-56 win over Northwestern, but prior to that this team had really been slumping. With the Hoosiers at a disadvantage here in rest and talent, I just don't see them keeping this one close. 

Maryland closed out the regular season on a 7-game winning streak and lost just 5 times all season. While the Terrapins did lose by 19-points at Indiana and won by just 2-points at home over the Hoosiers, I think that works in their favor here, as it will have them 100% focused on the task at hand.

Indiana is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 following a game where they covered the spread, while Maryland is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 neutral court games and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 tournament games. These trends combine to form a strong 81% (25-6) system in favor of the Terrapins. Take Maryland!

4* Penn St/Purdue Big 10 Vegas Insider on Purdue -

The Nittany Lions will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days after yesterday's upset win over Iowa, where the Hawkeyes essentially gave the game away. I look for Penn State's run to come to a crashing end this afternoon against the Boilermakers, who received a double-bye and will be playing their first game in 5 days.

Adding to this is the fact that Purdue won at Penn State 84-77 in the only meeting between these two teams in the regular season. The Boilermakers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 against a team with a winning record and we have a strong system in play going against the Nittany Lions. Neutral court underdogs who are revenging a loss where the opponent scored 75+ against and opponent off a home win where they won outright as a favorite are 37-83 ATS since 1997. That's a 69% system in favor of the Boilermakers. Take Purdue!

4* Rockets/Jazz NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Rockets -

The Jazz have put together a nice run of late, winning three straight and 8 of their last 10 overall, but I look for them to struggle to keep up with a motivated Rockets that will be looking to bounce back from last night's 100-105 loss at Portland.

The big key here is that Houston has owned the Jazz of late, winning each of the last 3 meetings by double-digits, including a 15-point home win in the most recent meeting on Jan. 10. The Rockets are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games off a SU loss and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 against a team with a losing record. Utah on the other hand is 10-24 ATS in their last 34 after 2 or more straight wins and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 after going under the total in 6 or more consecutive games. These trends add up to form a strong 76% (64-20) system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston!

5* Big 10 Game of the Month on Ohio State -

The Golden Gophers come in off a 12-point win over Rutgers in the opening round of the Big 10 Tournament, but that's nothing to get excited about. Minnesota had gone just 1-5 over their previous 6 games and I just don't see them keeping pace with the Buckeyes, who they lost at home in the only meeting during conference play. Ohio State has a big edge here playing with 3 days of rest, while Minnesota will be playing on no rest.

The Gophers are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 when revenging a straight up loss to an opponent , 5-11 ATS in their last 16 against a team with a winning SU record and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 off a SU win. Ohio State on the other hand is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games off a contest where they failed to cover the number. These trends combine to form a 76% (39-12) system in favor of the Buckeyes. Take Ohio State!

4* USC/UCLA Pac-12 Tournament Vegas Insider on UCLA -

This is a perfect spot to back UCLA, who is coming into this game off a full week of rest, while Florida State had to use a ton of energy yesterday in their 67-64 win over Arizona State, erasing a 14 point lead with just 9 minutes to play. Not only are the Trojans going to be playing with tired legs, they are outmatched big time in this one. UCLA won by 17 at USC on Jan. 14 and later won by 11 at home on March 4.

The big reason we aren't seeing a larger spread here is due to the fact that the Trojans have covered three straight and 4 of 5 overall. USC is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after covering the spread in 4 of their last 5. UCLA is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 off a home win, 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after a game where they shot 50% or better from the 3-point line and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games overall. These trends combine to form a strong 80% (39-10) system in favor of the Bruins. Take UCLA!

3* C-USA No Doubt Rout on Old Dominion -

The Monarchs come into this game having won 6 straight, all of which have come by at least 9 points. That includes a 19-point win over C-USA regular season champs Louisiana Tech. The only reason Old Dominion isn't favored by more is because they lost 58-68 at Middle Tennessee in the only meeting between these two teams. The thing to keep in mind is that the Monarchs lost in overtime after the Blue Raiders hit a game-tying shot with less than 10 seconds to play in regulation.

Old Dominion certainly hasn't forgot about that loss and given their recent form I see no reason why they won't win here by at least 7 points. Keep in mind that Middle Tennessee is a bad spot here playing on no rest after a hard fought win and cover yesterday against Charlotte.

Monarchs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 off a home blowout win by 20 or more points, 12-4 in their last 16 after allowing 55 points or less and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after a SU win. Middle Tennessee is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU win, 5-14 ATS in their last 19 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 road games after winning 2 of 3. These trends combine to form a strong 84% (51-10) system in favor of the Monarchs. Take Old Dominion!

3* Cal/Arizona Pac-12 Main Event on Arizona -

This is a lot of points to be laying in a conference tournament, but Arizona is one team that I'm comfortable backing in this spot, especially when you consider how the Wildcats had their way with Cal during the regular season. Arizona went on the road and beat the Golden Bears by 23-points and followed that up with a 39-point win at home.

So much attention is being paid to Kentucky for their perfect record, but I think Arizona has been equally impressive. The Wildcats are 28-3 with their 3 losses coming by 4-points or less, all of which came on the road.

Cal is just 2-8 ATS this season against teams who are making 45% or more of their shots and have lost these contests on average by 15 points/game. Arizona on the other hand is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after 15+ games against a team with a winning record and have won these by an average of 20 points/game. Wildcats are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against a team that attempts 18 or fewer free throws per game and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 after a win by 10+ points. These trends combine to form a strong 83% (33-7) system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Arizona!

4* Air Force/Boise State MWC Tournament No Brainer on Boise State -

The Broncos are actually showing some great value here as a mere 10-point favorite against the Falcons. Boise State won 67-42 at home over Air Force and 77-68 on the road. It's important to note that the Broncos were a 9.5-point favorite at home, which tells us that they should be laying at least 12.5 on a neutral floor.

Not only did Boise State win at Air Force, they were an exceptional road team all season, going 11-6 away from home. The Falcons on the other hand were a mere 3-11 on the road. I expect that to translate well into the Broncos favor here.

Air Force is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 revenging a loss of 10 or more points and just 2-9 ATS after 15+ games against a team with a winning record,  while Boise State is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after 15+ games against teams who are forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game and perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after covering 3 of their last 4. These trends combine to form a strong 85% (34-6) system in favor of the Broncos. Take Boise State!

5* No Limit NCAAB Top Play on Louisville +

The Cardinals are showing some great value here as an underdog against the Tar Heels. North Carolina is getting a lot of love here off that big 81-63 win over Boston College yesterday, but you can't overlook the fact that the Tar Heels are playing on no rest, which is a big factor in these conference tournament games. This is an even bigger concern with the uncertainty of the status of starting forward Kennedy Meeks.

On top of that, Louisville comes into the ACC Tournament off arguably their biggest win of the season, as they held on for a 59-57 win at home over then No. 2 Virginia. Montrezl Harrell was the difference in that win over the Cavaliers and when he's playing at that kind of a level, Louisville is difficult to beat.

The Cardinals are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games off a conference home win, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games when they come in having won 3 of 4 and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference tournament games. North Carolina is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after 15+ games against a team with a winning record and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after 15+ against strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. These trends add up to form a strong 83% (45-9) system in favor of the Cardinals. Take Louisville!

4* Iowa/Penn State Big Ten MoneyMaker on Iowa -

The Hawkeyes come into the Big 10 Tournament on an absolute tear, having won 6 straight. Out of those 6 wins, 5 came by at least 8 points and I look for Iowa to have no problem winning here by at least 8 over the Nittany Lions, who I look to struggle to bounce back after yesterday's hard fought 68-65 win over Nebraska.

The Hawkeyes didn't play anywhere close to their potential in their lone meeting at Penn State and still managed to come away with a 4-point win. That near upset will have Iowa ready for the task at hand. While the Nittany Lions have won two straight (both by 3-points), they are just 2-6 in their last 8 overall and are simply not a deep enough team to excel on no rest.

Iowa is 24-8 ATS in their last 32 after allowing 30-points or less in the first half of 2 straight games,  26-14 ATS in their last 40 after 15+ games against strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 overall. Penn State on the other hand is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. These trends add up to form a 73% (64-24) system in favor of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa!

3* Early Bird Conference Tournament Annihilator on Virginia -

I have no problem laying this big number on the Cavaliers in their opening game of the ACC Tournament. After losing their regular season finale at Louisville, Virginia is going to come out pissed off and extra motivated to make sure that they don't go into the NCAA Tournament off back-to-back losses.

I expect the Cavaliers to take care of business and take advantage of Florida State team that is playing on no rest after yesterday's 61-52 win against Clemson. The Seminoles had lost 3 straight prior to that victory, including a 22-point home loss to Louisville and 10-point defeat at Virginia. The Cavaliers won by double-digits over Florida State, despite going just 1-11 (9.1%) from long distance and just 14-27 (51.9%) from the free throw line.

Seminoles are just 5-17 ATS in their last 22 after 15+ games against elite teams that are outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game, while Virginia is 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 after a game where they failed to cover the spread, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a SU loss and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 after 15+ games against a team with a winning record. These trends add up to form a 77% (58-17) system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Virginia!

4* Villanova/Marquette Big East Vegas Insider on Villanova -

The Wildcats are a team on a mission and have more than just a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament to play for. Villanova has had a bad run in the Big East tourney and will be out to make a statement in New York. The Wildcats are hands down the best team in the Big East and I look for them to have no problem disposing of Marquette, who is in a difficult spot here playing on no rest after yesterday's 78-56 win over Seton Hall.

That win may look impressive, but the Golden Eagles had no answer for the Wildcats in their two regular season meetings, losing by 18 at Villanova and 11 at home. Marquette is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following a SU win by more than 20 points. Villanova on the other hand is a ridiculous 36-16 ATS in their last 42 against the Big East, 18-5 ATS in their last 23 against a team with a losing record and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a SU win by more than 20 points. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (67-21) system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Villanova!

5* ACC Game of the Month on Miami -

It might not seem like it given the double-digit spread, but we are actually getting some great value here on the Hurricanes as a 10-point favorite against the Hokies. Miami was an 11.5-point home favorite in a 76-52 blowout win over Virginia Tech in the regular season. That line indicates we should have expected to see the Hurricanes closer to a 14-15-point favorite on a neutral setting.

You also have to keep in mind that Miami followed up that big blowout win at home with a 82-61 win at Virginia Tech in their home finale/senior day. Needless to say the Hurricanes have the Hokies number and with a spot in the NCAA Tournament likely on the line, I look for Miami to answer the call and win here convincingly.

Virginia Tech is just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a SU win and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning SU record. Miami is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 80+ points in their last game and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 after a game where they hit 50% or more of their 3-point attempts. These trends combine to form a strong 73% (37-14) system in favor of the Hurricanes. Take Miami!

4* NBA Eastern Conference No Brainer on Bulls -

The perception on Chicago is not good right now, as the Bulls have dropped 3 straight and continue to play without 3 of their best players in Rose, Butler and Gibson. While they aren't a serious contender without those 3 healthy, I believe we are seeing a big overreaction here. Chicago's 3 losses have come on the road against the Pacers and Spurs and at home against the Grizzlies. Indiana and San Antonio are two of the hottest teams right now and Memphis has the 3rd best record overall.

If anything this is a prime spot for the Bulls to bounce back against a horrible 76ers team that is getting a little too much respect for their 92-84 win at home against the Hawks last time out. Atlanta rested both Millsap and Carroll, plus were in a huge letdown spot after that big win over the Cavaliers the night before. Prior to that win Philadelphia had dropped 9 of 10 and I fully expect them to go back to their losing ways tonight.

Chicago is 19-8 ATS in their last 27 road games when they come in having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, while the 76ers are just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 home games after losing 3 of their last 4 and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when playing on 3 or more days rest.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) against a poor 3PT shooting team (33% or worse), good ball handling team (14.5 TO's or less) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 TO's) are 69-34 ATS since 1996. That's a 67% system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!

3* BC/UNC ACC Tournament Main Event on UNC -

The Tar Heels are going to come out extremely motivated after losing their regular season finale at home to in-state rival Duke and have a big advantage here against the Eagles, as Boston College is going to have a difficult time bouncing back on no rest after a gut wrenching 66-65 win over Georgia Tech in the opening round of the ACC Tournament last night.

While the game is being played on a neutral court, it's going to feel like a home game for the Tar Heels and I look for them to have no problem leaving here with a double-digit win. North Carolina won 79-68 at BC in the only meeting during the regular season and have won each of the last 4 meetings by at least 11 points.

UNC is 59-27-1 ATS in their last 87 games following a SU loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral site and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a losing SU record. These trends combine to form a solid 71% (69-28) system in favor of the Tar Heels. Take North Carolina!

4* Raptors/Spurs NBA Vegas Insider on Raptors +

Toronto is showing some great value here as a 7.5-point road dog against the Spurs. The Raptors are simply being undervalued right now due to the fact that they have gone just 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games. San Antonio on the other hand has won 5 straight and are 4-1 ATS during this stretch. However, the Spurs have played a favorable schedule during this stretch and that has them slightly overvalued.

Toronto showed some positive signs in their last game, losing by a final of just 104-108 at Oklahoma City as a 7-point underdog and I'm looking for a similar type outcome in this one. Keep in mind that the Raptors won 87-82 at San Antonio back on Feb. 8. It's also worth noting that this is a bit of a look ahead spot for the Spurs, who will host LeBron James and company Thursday night in the TNT nightcap.

San Antonio is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 in the 2nd half against team who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game. Toronto on the other hand is a perfect 8-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons after a cover where they lost straight up as an underdog. These trends combine to form a strong 83% (25-5) system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto!

3* Horizon Tournament ATS Main Event on Valparaiso -

The Crusaders are showing some great value here as a mere 3-point home favorite against Wisconsin-Green Bay in the Horizon Conference Tournament Championship Game. Valparaiso ended up beating the Phoenix by just 4-points at home during the regular season, but they led in that game by as many as 13-points.

The big key here is that Green Bay relies heavily on senior guard Keifer Sykes, who is averaging a team-best 18.9 ppg. Sykes totaled just 18 points in the two games against the Crusaders, including just 7-points at Valparaiso. The Crusaders clearly have a good understanding of how to keep Sykes in check and without him playing at a high level, I just don't see the Phoenix being able to keep this one close enough to cover.

Valparaiso is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games with a line of +3 to -3, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 when playing against a team with a winning record and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 against teams who force 14 or less turnovers per game. Green Bay on the other hand is just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after 15+ games against strong defensive teams that are allowing 64 or less points/game. These trends combine to form a 78% (42-12) system in favor of the Crusaders. Take Valparaiso!

5* Wizards/Hornets Southeast Game of the Month on Wizards +

This line is begging for you to take the Hornets as a small home favorite. Charlotte is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games, while the Wizards are a mere 2-7 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9. Not to mention the Hornets have won both of the previous two meetings this season.

Charlotte is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100+ points in their last game and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. I look for the Hornets to struggle to match the Wizards intensity after having to use a lot of energy to rally late to beat the Pistons yesterday in a high-scoring affair.

We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of Washington. Favorites that are shooting 33% or worse from behind the 3-point line are 34-70 ATS in the month of March over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!

3* Summit Conference Tourn Vegas Insider on South Dakota St -

I'm backing the Jackrabbits in this one, as they have a big edge here against their in-state rivals. While South Dakota won the most recent meeting 80-64 at home, they also lost by 14-points at South Dakota State and most importantly will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set.

The Coyotes upset IUPU-Ft Wayne 82-73 as a 3-point dog, but are just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 after a game where they covered the spread. The Jackrabbits on the other hand are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 against a team with a winning record, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 off a SU win and 16-5 in their last 21 overall.

We also find a strong system backing South Dakota State. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are revenging a same season loss, playing their 2nd road game in 3 days are 87-45 ATS since 1997. That's a strong 66% system in favor of the Jackrabbits. Take South Dakota State!

5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Hornets/Pistons UNDER

These two teams combined for just 184 points in their only other meeting this season and I'm expecting a similar low-scoring affair in this one. Charlotte has scored 100+ in 3 straight games and are simply not built to sustain that kind of offensive success, but in the short term it has created some great value here. The Hornets are only averaging 95.0 ppg and are a team built on their effort defensively.

Charlotte has held 5 of their last 7 opponents to 94 points or less, while the Pistons have scored 95 or fewer in 4 of their last 5. While Detroit hasn't been playing great defensively of late, they hold New Orleans to just 88 points two games ago and figure to be highly motivated to snap a 5-game losing streak.

UNDER is 14-4 in the Hornets last 18 after scoring 100+ in 2 or more consecutive games, 7-2 in their last 9 road games and 8-1 in their last 9 when coming in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7. UNDER is also 12-3 in the Pistons last 15 games after allowing 100+, 6-1 in their last 7 following a SU loss and 4-0 in their last 4 at home after a road trip of 7 or more days. These trends combine to form a 82% (51-11) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Bulls/Spurs NBA Total Annihilator on UNDER

Great situation here to back the under, as we have a nationally televised game with an early start time between two fundamentally sound defensive teams. With the injuries the Bulls are dealing with, their only hope of staying competitive is to give max effort defensively. While the Spurs are averaging 110 over their last 4, it's come against some bad defensive teams in the Kings (twice), Suns and Nuggets.

The Bulls have held the Spurs to fewer than 90 points twice in the last 3 meetings and it would come as a surprise if Chicago was able to top 90 points given their current form. San Antonio is only allowing 95.4 ppg over their last 5.

UNDER is 20-9 in the Bulls 29 road games this season and 12-3 when listed as a road dog. UNDER is also 14-6 in the Spurs last 20 non-conference games, 23-8 in their last 31 home games after scoring 120 or more in their last contest, 7-2 in their last 9 on Sunday and 12-3 in their last 15 following an ATS loss. These trends combine to form a 74% (88-31) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Penn St/Minn Big 10 Vegas Insider on Minn-

This game doesn't mean anything to Penn State, who will likely have their attention turned to the Big 10 Tournament. While Minnesota also needs to run the table in the tournament to get to the Big Dance, I look for them to come out extremely motivated on senior day, as they have five seniors playing their last regular season home game.

Penn State has lost 6 straight and haven't exactly been all that competitive of late on the road, losing by 21-points at Northwestern and 20-points at Ohio State. It's also worth noting that the Golden Gophers hosted the Nittany Lions in their home finale last year and cruised to a 81-63 win.

The Nittany Lions are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against a marginal winning team that's won 51% to 60% of their games and just 2-14 ATS in their last 16 after a game where they made 20% or worse from behind the 3-point line. These two trends combine to form a dynamite 88% (23-3) system in favor of the Golden Gophers. Take Minnesota!

4* Duke/UNC ACC ATS No Brainer on UNC -

The Tar Heels will be out for revenge from a crushing 90-92 loss at Duke earlier this season and I expect them to get it. North Carolina comes in all business, as they followed up a 73-64 win at Miami with a 81-49 blowout win at Georgia Tech.

Duke secured the No. 2 spot in the ACC Tournament with their 94-51 win over Wake Forest on Wednesday and as big as a game as this is, I could see a young Blue Devils team not being 100% invested. Jahlil Okafor, Quinn Cook, Amile Jefferson, Justise Winslow and Grayson Allen are all dealing with ankle injuries and their focus could be more on staying healthy for a run in the ACC and NCAA Tournament. It also helps that they won that first meeting.

Duke is just 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 off a game where they covered the spread and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win by 20+ points.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 that are fresh off a 30+ point win against an opponent that scored 80 or more in their last game are 92-48 ATS since 1997. That's a 66% long-term system backing a play on the Tar Heels. Take North Carolina!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on 76ers +

This is the perfect spot to go against the Hawks, as they are primed for a letdown after last night's huge home win over the Cavaliers. The books are begging for you take Atlanta at the line and the public is taking the bait. I just don't see the Hawks being all that interested here, as they have the Eastern Conference locked up.

You also have to take into consideration that the Hawks may rest some key players here in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, which head coach Mike Budenholzer has done recently. Either way I look for the 76ers to keep this one surprisingly close. Philadelphia is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games against teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games when revenging a road loss to an opponent. These two trends combine to form a strong 77% (24-7) system in favor of the 76ers. Take Philadelphia!

4* Kansas/Oklahoma Big 12 Vegas Insider on Oklahoma -

Kansas already has the Big 12 regular season title locked up, but that's not the only thing working against the Jayhawks in this one. Kansas has recently loss Cliff Alexander (eligibility), will also be without the services of Perry Ellis (knee) and Wayne Seldon Jr is playing at less than 100% (ankle). Even at full strength and a Big 12 title on the line, the Jayhawks would have had a difficult time winning on the road against the Sooners.

As for the Sooners, they aren't going to care who takes the floor for Kansas, as I look for them to come out with a chip on their shoulder after blowing a 20+ point lead in a loss at Iowa State in their most recent game. Adding even more value here is that this will be the final home game of the season and the Sooners are a dominant 13-1 on their home floor this year.

Jayhawks are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games off a conference win and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 on the road after 15+ games against a team with a winning record. Oklahoma is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games off a SU loss and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games when revenging a loss where they scored 75+ points. These trends combine to form a strong 80% (53-13) system in favor of the Sooners. Take Oklahoma!

3* LSU/Arkansas SEC Situational ATS Smash on LSU +

While Arkansas will be motivated in their home finale, LSU is going to be the more desperate team given how much they need a big road win to strengthen their NCAA Tournament resume. I know the Razorbacks are a strong 16-1 at home, but I believe that has them overvalued in a game that I look to go down to the wire. LSU is a respectable 8-5 on the road and while they just lost by 15-points at home to Tennessee, that was their only defeat all season by more than 7-points.

Arkansas has made easy work of the bottom half of the league at home, but they have struggled to pull away against some of the better teams. The Razorbacks only beat Texas A&M at home by 6, Tennessee by 5, Alabama by 2 and lost outright to Ole Miss.

LSU is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after 15+ games against a team with a winning record, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 following a SU loss and 4-0 in their last 4 games played on Saturday. Arkansas on the other hand is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a team that's won 60% or more of their games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following a SU win. These trends combine to form a strong 89% (31-4) system in favor of the Tigers. Take LSU!

5* Alabama/Texas A&M SEC Game of the Month on Texas A&M -

I have no problem laying this number on the Aggies at home against an Alabama team that is no where close to as good as their 17-13 record would indicate. The Crimson Tide are just 5-9 in their last 14 games and have not beat a conference opponent who currently has more than 5-wins inside SEC play since opening up with back-to-back wins over Texas A&M and Tenn way back in early January.

Alabama has been especially bad on the road against some of the better teams of late, losing most recently at Vanderbilt by 7, LSU by 11 and at Kentucky by 15. Texas &M will not only be out for revenge, but will be playing their home finale. The Aggies are 13-2 at home and will be looking to send out seniors Kourtney Roberson and Jordan Green with a win.

Texas A&M is 28-13 ATS in their last 41 home games when listed as a favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, 44-27 ATS in their last 71 when revenging a road loss of 10+ points and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after playing their previous game as a road dog. Alabama is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after 15+ games against a team with a winning record and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games played on Saturday. Take Texas A&M!

3* Michigan St/Indiana Early Bird Big 10 Annihilator on Indiana +

With Indiana coming off an ugly 7-point road loss at Northwestern and 14-point home loss to Iowa in their last two games, along with the fact that they lost by 20-points at Michigan State earlier this season, this line is begging for you take the Spartans as a small road favorite. I'm not taking the bait, as I think the value here is with the Hoosiers, who are going to come out with one of their best efforts of the season given their two-game losing streak and this being their home finale.

The Spartans were able to hold on to beat Purdue 72-66 at home in their last contest, but failed to cover the 6.5-point spread, setting up a profitable spot to fade them. Michigan State is just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 road games off a SU win as a favorite where they didn't cover the number. We also see that Indiana is 27-10 ATS in their last 37 home games with a line of +3 to -3 and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against teams who are outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game. These trends combine to form a strong 79% (48-13) system in favor of the Hoosiers. Take Indiana!

4* NCAAB Ohio Valley Oddsmakers Error on E Kentucky -

Belmont comes in off a 97-64 blowout win over Eastern Illinois last night in their first game of the Ohio Valley Tournament. The Bruins took advantage of an Eastern Illinois team that was playing on rest and I look for Eastern Kentucky to do the same against the Bruins, as the Colonels received a double-bye.

Eastern Kentucky closed out the regular season 8-1 over their final 9 games, while their only loss during this stretch was a 61-66 loss at Belmont, that revenge is a key factor into taking the Colonels this time around. Not to mention Eastern Kentucky cruised past the Bruins 81-69 at home.

Favorites of 14.5 or more points in the 3rd meeting of a season, who are playing on extended rest against an opponent on no rest and off a cover in their last game are 10-1 ATS since 2012. That's a 91% system in favor of the Colonels. Take Eastern Kentucky!

5* Cavs/Hawks NBA Eastern Conf Game of the Year on Cavs -

This game means a lot more to the Cavaliers than it does the Hawks. Atlanta has a comfortable 10-game lead in the east and are all but a shoe-in to take home the No. 1 seed. Cleveland on the other hand is fighting for position and will be out for double-revenge after losing each of the last two meetings.

The key here is that this is a different Cavaliers team than the one the Hawks beat up on earlier in the season. Cleveland has gone 20-4 over their last 24 games and three of those losses came in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. The Cavs come in with a full day of rest and I look for them to come out an make a statement.

The Hawks won 104-96 as a 8.5-point home favorite against the Rockets on Wednesday, which sets them up in a good spot to fade. Atlanta is just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 when playing with 2 days of rest and 2-13 ATS in their last 15 home games off a win where they failed to cover the spread. Adding to this is the fact that Cleveland is a dominant 10-2 ATS in their 12 games in the 2nd half against opponents who are scoring 99+ points/game and winning these contests by an average of 11.4 ppg. These trends add up to form a strong 78% (42-12) system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Bulls/Pacers UNDER

Both of these teams come into this contest off a strong offensive performance. The Bulls scored 108 last night against the Thunder, while the Pacers put up 105 against the Knicks. That's going to have to public looking to back the over with this low total, but the real value here is with the under.

These two division rivals have a history of playing low-scoring games. Each of the last 4 meetings have seen a combined score of 189 or less. With the Bulls playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and without the services of Rose, Butler or Gibson, it's highly unlikely Chicago will flirt with 100 points in back-to-back nights. The important thing here is the Bulls will bring the intensity defensively and Indiana is far from a strong offensive team and are averaging just 90.2 ppg in their last 5 against Chicago.

UNDER is 15-4 in the Bulls last 19 road games after two or more consecutive wins, 8-1 in their last 9 road games after winning at least 4 of their last 7 and 11-3 on the season when listed as a road underdog. UNDER is also 20-9 in the Pacers last 29 off 3 or more consecutive wins and a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 home games after winning 3 of their previous 4. These trends combine to form a 78% (62-17) system. Take the UNDER!

3* Bradley/UNI Missouri Valley ATS No Brainer on UNI -

UNI and Wichita State are a class above the rest of the Missouri Valley Conference and I look for the Panthers to open up tournament play with an easy win over the Braves. Not only is Bradley greatly outmatched in terms of talent, but they are at a big disadvantage here playing on no rest after opening up the tournament last night with a hard fought 52-50 win over Drake.

UNI is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against strong defensive teams that are allowing 64 or fewer points/game and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games away from home against a slow-tempo team that averages 53 or fewer shots per game.

Adding to this is that favorites of 14.5 or more points in the 3rd meeting of a season, who are playing on extended rest against an opponent on no rest and off a cover in their last game are 10-1 ATS since 2012. That's a 91% system in favor of the Panthers. Take UNI!

4* NCAAB Early Bird ATS Dominator on Wichita State -

UNI and Wichita State are a class above the rest of the Missouri Valley Conference and I look for the Shockers to open up tournament play with an easy win and cover over the Salukis. Not only is Southern Illinois greatly outmatched in terms of talent, but they are at a big disadvantage here playing on no rest after opening up the tournament last night with a hard fought 55-48 win over Drake. This is an even bigger edge for the Shockers given that this is an early start time.

Southern Illinois is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 when listed as an underdog. Wichita State is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 away from home against a team with a losing record.

Adding to this is that favorites of 14.5 or more points in the 3rd meeting of a season, who are playing on extended rest against an opponent on no rest and off a cover in their last game are 10-1 ATS since 2012. That's a 91% system in favor of the Shockers. Take Wichita State!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on Belmont -

Belmont comes into the Ohio Valley Tournament with a lot of confidence, as the Bruins closed out the regular season on a 4-game winning streak. While Eastern Illinois was able to knock off SIU-Edwardsville 78-66 in the opening round, they were just 4-7 over their last 11 games down the stretch and I look for them to struggle to keep pace with Belmont.

The fact that the Bruins are favored by 5.5-points after losing on the road to the Panthers 73-84 back on Jan. 10, says a lot about what the books think of this Belmont team. The big key here is that SIU is built on their defense and I look for them to struggle to bring the intensity on that side of the ball playing with no rest.

The Panthers are just 9-25-1 ATS in their last 35 games against a team with a winning record and neutral court teams that are revenging a SU loss as a favorite after 3 or more consecutive covers as a favorite are a ridiculous 24-4 ATS since 1997. That's a dynamite 86% system in favor of the Bruins. Take Belmont!

4* Thunder/Bulls TNT Total Annihilator on UNDER

The Thunder are averaging 112.2 ppg over their last 5 and seen each of their last 4 finish over the total. Their recent offensive surge along with this being a nationally televised game on TNT, has the total inflated. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Chicago and 5-1 in the last 6 overall.

Chicago is without three of their better offensive players in Rose, Butler and Gibson and have no choice but to turn their focus to the defensive end of the floor to remain competitive. The Bulls are only averaging 90.4 ppg and allowing 89.2 ppg over their last 5. Big key here is the Thunder won't be looking to push the tempo after playing a grueling overtime game at Philadelphia last night. Adding to that is the fact that this will be Oklahoma City's 3rd game in 4 days and 5th in the last 8 days overall. Plus, Chicago comes in off 2-days rest, so we can expect max energy defensively here.

UNDER is 31-14 in the Bulls last 45 off a home win, 14-4 in their 18 after playing two straight games as an underdog, 7-1 in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 6-1 in their last 7 against the Western Conference. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Thunder's last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 15-4 in their last 19 after a combined score of 205+ in 4 or more straight games. These trends combine to form a 75% (77-25) system. Take the UNDER!

5* Ohio Valley Game of the Year on Tenn-Martin +

While the Skyhawks narrowly escaped with a 75-72 overtime win at home against Morehead State in the only regular season meeting, they should not be an underdog against the Eagles in the Ohio Valley Tournament. Tennessee-Martin has a huge advantage here with rest, as they haven't played since Feb. 28, where Morehead State will be playing on no rest after yesterday's 79-74 win against SE Missouri State.

The Eagles are simply being overvalued due to the fact that they come in having won 4 straight and covered each of their last 5. The key thing to keep in mind is that 4 of those wins came against bottom feeders, who finished with a losing record inside Ohio Valley action.

Morehead St is a mere 10-26-1 ATS in their last 37 games following a SU win, 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Skyhawks lost their finale against conference champ Murray State and are a strong 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 77% (41-12) system in favor of the Skyhawks. Take Tennessee-Martin!

4* Oregon St/Oregon Pac-12 Late Night Bailout on Oregon St +

I believe we are getting some big time value here with the Beavers as a home dog. This line has been inflated in favor of the Ducks, due to the fact that Oregon has gone 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 games, while Oregon State is just 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last 6.

The important thing to keep in mind is that 4 of the Beavers 5 losses have come on the road and the other was their only home loss of the season against Utah. Oregon State is 15-1 at home and I don't see them losing their home finale on senior night.

Oregon is just 8-19 ATS in their last 27 games when they come in having won 8 or more of their last 10, while Oregon State is a dominant 23-8-2 ATS in their last 33 home games, 13-4 ATS off two or more consecutive losses and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games with a line of +3 to -3. These trends add up to form a 75% (61-20) system in favor of the Beavers. Take Oregon State!

5* MWC Game of the Month on San Diego State -

The Aztecs come into this game off an ugly 46-56 home loss to Boise State as a 7.5-point favorite and I believe it has them showing some great value here as a mere 4.5-point favorite against the Rebels.

As you would expect with a well coached team like the Aztecs, San Diego State has responded very well coming off a loss. The Aztecs have not lost consecutive games once all season and are a strong 5-2 ATS in their last 7 off a double-digit loss at home. UNLV comes in off an impressive 69-57 win at Wyoming, but are just 3-4 over their last 7 overall and a mere 6-16 ATS in their last 22 home games after playing their last most recent contest as a home favorite.

San Diego State is 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games with a total of 120 to 129.5 points and are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games after 5 straight games where they committed 14 or less turnovers. Most importantly here, UNLV is a mere 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games against strong defensive teams who are holding opponents to 39% or worse from the field. These trends combine to form a 77% (44-13) system in favor of the Aztecs. Take San Diego State!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Mississippi St +

The Bulldogs are showing some great value here as a double-digit road dog against the Commodores. Mississippi State is simply being undervalued due to the fact they come in off a 18-points loss at home to Kentucky and 13-points loss at South Carolina in their last two games. Losing by nearly 20-points at Kentucky shouldn't come as a surprise and neither should a poor showing after playing the No. 1 team in the country.

Prior to their two most recent losses, Mississippi State had just 1 loss in their previous 12 games by more than 6-points, which included a 57-54 win at home over Vanderbilt as a 4-point underdog. During that 12-game stretch the Bulldogs went an impressive 8-4 ATS, including a perfect 2-0 when listed as a dog of 10+ points.

Vanderbilt is also be overvalued due to the fact that they have gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games. That actually sets up a great spot to fade the Commodores, as they are just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 when having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after failing to cover last time out and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. These trends combine to form a 76% (28-9) system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Mississippi State!

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Timberwolves -

The Nuggets snapped a 6-game losing streak in their first game after firing head coach Brian Shaw, but I'm not expecting that to carry over on the road. Denver is a mere 8-21 on the road and find themselves playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days overall.

I just don't see them having the energy to keep pace with the Timberwolves, who have looked like a completely different team of late. While Minnesota has lost 3 straight and are just 2-4 since the All-Star break, two of those losses came on the road to the Rockets and Bulls and the other two at home against the Clippers and Grizzlies by a combined 9-points. Kevin Garnett is changing the mentality of this team and brought some excitement back to Minnesota.

Denver is just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 0 days rest, while the Timberwolves are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a SU loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when playing on a full days rest and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against the Western Conference. These trends combine to form a 88% (29-4) system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Nets -

This is a great spot to back the Nets as a relatively small home favorite against the Hornets. Charlotte has won two straight and 3 of their last 4, but are just 3-6 in their last 9 overall.

Most importantly their three wins have been less than impressive. They went on the road and beat the Bulls in Chicago's first game after finding out they had lost Rose to another knee injury and the other two came against bottom feeders in the Magic and Lakers. On top of that 5 of their 6 losses during this stretch have come by 7 or more points.

Brooklyn on the other hand is in the midst of one of their best stretches of the season. The Nets have won 4 of 6, including a 104-94 road win at Dallas and 110-108 home win over the Warriors in their last 2 games. They haven't lost at home since late January and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 overall.

Charlotte is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing 100+ points in their previous game and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against an opponent who scored 100+ points in their last contest. Hornets are also just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after a combined score of 205+ in their last game, while Brooklyn is a dominant 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games in the month of March. These trends combine to form a 89% (32-4) system in favor of the Nets. Take Brooklyn!

4* Clemson/NC State ACC Game of the Week on NC State Pick'em

NC State has been one of the more difficult teams to figure out, as they can look like one of the top teams in the ACC one game and then look like a bottom feeder the next. The Wolfpack followed up a 3-game winning streak which included road wins at Louisville and North Carolina and a 16-point win at home versus Virginia Tech with an ugly 63-79 loss at Boston College this past Saturday.

I believe that loss has NC State in a prime spot to bounce back and take advantage of a Clemson team that is just 2-4 in their last 6 with the two wins coming against bottom feeders in Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. It's also worth noting that the Wolfpack will be playing with revenge from a 57-68 loss at home to the Tigers back on Jan. 28.

NC State is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games off an upset conference loss, a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 off a SU loss to a conference opponent by 10 or more points and 8-0 ATS in their last 8 when revenging a same season loss. These trends combine to form a dynamite 88% (30-4) system in favor of the Wolfpack. Take NC State!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Rockets/Hawks UNDER

These two teams combined for just 203 points in the Hawks 104-97 win at Houston in their previous meeting this season. That contest had a total of just 197 points and now we find the total sitting even higher with the Rockets playing without potential MVP James Harden, who had 18 points and 14 assists in that earlier defeat.

This will be Houston's first game this season without Harden and not having him on the floor is going to have their offense struggling to get going. It also wouldn't come as a big surprise with Harden suspended for just 1-game if the rest of the Rockets players didn't take this game all that seriously.

A lot is made of the Hawks efficiency offensively, which covers up the fact that this is a very good defensive team that is only allowing 95.1 ppg at home. It's also worth noting that Atlanta has scored 100+ just once in their last 6 games and have not had a game finish with a combined score of 200 or more since Feb. 9.

UNDER is 24-15 in the Rockets last 39 games with a total set at 200 or more points and 39-19 in their last 58 road games when they come in having scored 100+ in 4 straight games. UNDER is also 15-4 in Houston's last 19 in the 2nd half against teams who are outscoring opponents by 6+ points/game and 20-8 in the Hawks last 28 home games in the 2nd half against teams with a winning record.

Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 70-28 since 1996 in games where you have a team off a road win against a division rival (Hawks) against an opponent off a close home win by 3 points or less (Rockets). That's a 71% system in play tonight. Take the UNDER!

3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Hornets -

I'm backing the Hornets at home against the Lakers, who are poised for a letdown on the road after playing 4 of their previous 5 at home. Los Angeles had their 3-game winning streak snapped in a 101-108 home loss to the Thunder, who were playing without Durant and Westbrook.

The Hornets come in off an impressive 15-point win at Orlando (98-83) and will be highly motivated here as they take their home court for the first time in over a week. Charlotte also will be out to snap a 3-game home skid.

The Lakers have been scoring well at home, but I don't expect that to carry over to the road, where they are averaging just 97.7 ppg, especially given that they will be facing a Hornets team that is only allowing 96.5 ppg on their home floor.

Los Angeles is a mere 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 road games and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 versus a team with a losing record. Charlotte is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 in the 2nd half against up-tempo teams who are averaging 83+ shots/game, 15-4 in their last 19 at home in the 2nd half against teams who are averaging 14 or less turnovers/game, 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 off a SU win by more than 10 points and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home against a team with a road winning percent less than 40%. These trends combine to form a 75% (66-22) system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte!

4* NBA Total No Brainer on Raptors/76ers UNDER

The books have completely missed the mark in this one. Each of the last two meetings between these two teams have seen a combined score of 184 or less, including a mere 177 points in the most recent meeting at Philadelphia.

I'm expecting a similar low-scoring affair tonight, as we have a highly motivated Toronto team that is looking to snap a 5-game losing streak and a Philadelphia team that is averaging just 86.9 ppg in division matchups and will be without their leading scorer Robert Covington.

UNDER is 10-0 in the 76ers last 10 off a blowout loss by 20+ points, 21-9 in Philadelphia's last 30 after playing their last previous game as a road underdog, 20-6 in their last 26 when revenging a same season loss and 8-3 in the Raptors last 11 off a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 77% (59-18) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAB Total Annihilator on Syracuse/Virginia UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle tonight between the Cavaliers and Orange. Both of these teams have a lot to play for, which should only add to the intensity of this nationally televised matchup on ESPN. Virginia needs a win to secure the outright ACC regular season title, while Syracuse will be playing their final home game of the season.

This should lead to a lot of energy defensively, which is an area that both of these teams have excelled at. The Cavaliers lead the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 50.1 ppg. Syracuse on the other hand is giving up just 59.2 ppg at home.

UNDER is 10-4-1 in Virginia's last 15 games overall and 4-1-1 in their last 6 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of 60% or better. UNDER is also a perfect 4-0 in the Orange's last 4 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 4-0 in their last 4 overall and 15-5-2 in their last 22 at home against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. These trends combine to form a 80% (37-9) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Pelicans/Nuggets NBA Total Annihilator on UNDER

This is way to many points for this matchup. The Pelicans are still without Davis and Anderson and are averaging just 96.5 ppg on the road for the season. The Nuggets on the other hand are a complete mess offensively right now. Denver hasn't scored 100 points in 5 straight and have failed to surpass 82 points in 3 of their last 5. Adding to this is the fact that the last time these two teams met, they combined for a mere 178 points.

UNDER is 12-3 in the Nuggets last 15 off a blowout loss by 20+ points, 21-6 in their last 27 against teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game and 10-1 in their last 11 in the 2nd half of the season versus teams who average 7 or less steals per game. UNDER is also 6-2 in the Pelicans last 8 road games, 7-2 in their last 9 against at team that's won less than 40% of their games and 7-1 in their last 8 against an opponent who allowed 100+ points in their last contest. These trends add up to form a 81% (63-15) system. Take the UNDER!

5* Pitt/Wake Forest No Limit Top Play on Wake Forest +

The Demon Deacons come in riding a 3-game losing streak and are just 3-8 over their last 11 games. Their recent 3-game slide shouldn't be all that surprising, two came against Virginia and the other was on the road at Notre Dame. Their only other home loss during the 3-8 stretch was against North Carolina. Wake Forest should not be a home dog to the Panthers, but are simply being undervalued here after losing by 36-points at home to Virginia.

An ugly loss like the Demon Deacons just suffered against the Cavaliers, typically leads to a big bounce back performance, especially at home. Wake Forest is 48-30 ATS in their last 78 off a loss by 15+ points. Pittsburgh is only 5-8 on the road and just 3-8 ATS, which shows that the Panthers have consistently been overvalued away from home.

The Panthers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a home win, 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 30 points or less in 2 straight games, 1-11 ATS off a win where they failed to cover the spread and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less. These trends combine to form a dynamite 94% (34-2) system in favor of the Demon Deacons. Take Wake Forest!

3* Hornets/Magic NBA Total Dominator on UNDER

This game has a defensive battle written all over it, as neither of these teams are capable of a whole lot offensively. The Hornets come in averaging a mere 91.6 ppg over their last 5, while the Magic are scoring just 93.0 ppg over their last 5. These two division rivals are very familiar with one another and this will be their 4th meeting this season, which adds to the value here.

UNDER is 13-4 in the Hornets last 17 games overall, 6-1 in their last 7 road games and 5-1 in their last 6 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. UNDER is 7-1 in the Magic's last 8 overall, 6-1 in their last 7 home games and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 84% (41-8) system. Take the UNDER!

4* Spurs/Suns NBA Total Annihilator on UNDER

I'm expecting a much lower scoring game than the total that's been set for this matchup. Each of the previous two meetings between these two teams this season have seen 195 or less combined points and the last time they played in Phoenix they combined for just 183.

The big key here is that both of these teams are coming in on little rest. The Spurs will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days. The Suns also are playing 3 in 4 and 6 in the last 9 days. Neither team is going to be looking to push the pace in this one and both teams are going to be highly motivated defensively with just 4.5-games separating the two in the standings.

UNDER is 11-2 in the Spurs last 13 road games after going over the total in their last contest, 21-9 in the Suns last 30 games in the 2nd half against teams that are called for 21 or fewer fouls, 4-0 in San Antonio's last 4 when playing on 0 days rest and 6-2 in Phoenix's last 8 games against a team that's won 60% or more of their games. These trends combine to form a 75% (38-13) system. Take the UNDER!

5* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Utah -

The Utes are showing exceptional value here as a mere 1.5-point home favorite against the Wildcats. The value here is largely due to the fact that Arizona is the higher ranked team and that they won convincingly at home against the Utes 69-51. The big key here is that Utah has been a completely different team at home than on the road. The Utes are a perfect 16-0 SU and 11-4 ATS at home, where they are outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 26.1 ppg.

Utah is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games played on Saturday, 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after a game where they shot 57% or better from the field and held their opponent to 43% or worst. 13-4 ATS in their last 17 when playing a top level team that's won 80% or more of their games and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games after 15+ games against teams that are outscoring opponents by 4+ points game. These trends combine to form a dynamite 88% (37-5) system in favor of the Utes. Take Utah!

3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Hawks -

I have no problem backing the Hawks here as a mere 5-point road favorite against the Heat. Both teams will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, which I actually think favors the Hawks, who are a lot deeper than the Heat. Miami is also not nearly as good at home as they are on the road. The Heat are 10-16 at home compared to 15-16 on the road.

Miami is 9-23 ATS in their last 32 home games after playing 2 or more consecutive road games, 3-13 ATS in their last 16 after having won 2 of their last 3 and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams who average 6 or more made 3-pointers a game. Atlanta on the other hand is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 21-8 ATS in their last 29 off 3 or more SU wins and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. These trends add up to form a 73% (104-38) system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta!

4* North Carolina/Miami ACC Vegas Insider on Miami +

The Hurricanes should not be a home dog to the Tar Heels. North Carolina was embarrassed at home 46-58 last time out and are just 2-5 over their last 7 games. Miami on the other hand has won 3 of 4 and are starting to play more like the team that got off that great start. Angel Rodriguez is the spark that gets the Hurricanes going and he's coming off one of his best shooting performances in a while. Rodriguez connected on 8 of 14 attempts for 25 points in Miami's most recent victory against Florida State. Another key factor here is that Miami has won 4 straight over the Tar Heels. which adds to value we are getting with them as a home dog.

The Tar Heels are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after 15+ games against teams who have won 60% to 80% of their games, while Miami is 18-8 ATS in their last 26 when listed as an underdog, 18-8 ATS in their last 26 off a home win and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after scoring 80+ points in their last contest. These trends combine to form a strong 74% (52-18) system in favor of the Hurricanes. Take Miami!

3* Michigan/Maryland Early Bird Main Event on Michigan +

While both of these teams are coming off big wins at home over some tough competition, Maryland's win over Wisconsin is considered a much bigger feat than the Wolverines upset of Ohio State at home. That's created some solid value here with the Wolverines catching near double-digits against the Terrapins, who are in a major letdown spot after laying everything on the line in that game against the Badgers.

Michigan is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off an upset win over a conference rival as a underdog of 6 or more points and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games after playing their last contest as an underdog. Maryland is just 3-11 ATS this season when listed as a favorite and just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. These trends combine to form a 80% (40-10) system in favor of the Wolverines. Take Michigan!

4* Thunder/Blazers NBA Total Annihilator on Thunder/Blazers UNDER

I believe we are getting some great value here on the UNDER, as the books have inflated the total in this one due both teams coming off high-scoring games and due to the fact that this will be a nationally televised game on ESPN.

The key here is that these two teams have a history of finishing below the mark. In fact, the UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings overall and 4-1 in the last 5 played in Portland. Another key factor is that we have the Thunder playing without Durant and coming in off an overtime game last night against the Suns. This will also be Oklahoma City's 5th game in the last 7 days overall. The Thunder simply aren't going to be able to play at a fast pace. It's also worth noting that the Blazers have held each of their last 5 opponents to 98 or fewer points and are only averaging 93.0 ppg over their last 3.

UNDER is 14-2 in the Trail Blazers last 16 home games with a total greater than 200, 12-4 in their last 16 home games after playing two straight games as a favorite and 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 100+ in their last game. UNDER is also 22-8-2 in Oklahoma City's last 32 against a team with a winning record, 4-0 in their last 4 versus a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-1 in their last 5 following a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 79% (64-17) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year on Bulls -

With the recent news of the Bulls losing Rose to another knee injury and Chicago losing their first game without him 86-98 at home to the Hornets, the public has quickly backed off this team. Minnesota on the other hand comes in off an impressive 99-77 win at home over the Wizards. I believe we are seeing a huge overreaction not only to the Rose injury, but based on the last game.

It shouldn't have come as a big surprise to see Chicago stumble in their first game without Rose, as his injury really came out of nowhere and the focus just wasn't there. Minnesota is actually the team poised for a letdown, after laying everything they had on the line in Garnett's first game back.

The Timberwolves are also not nearly as good on the road, where they have gone a miserable 5-23 this season. Minnesota is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win and 5-12 ATS in their last 17 against the Eastern Conference, while the Bulls are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after a SU loss by 10+ points. These trends combine to form a 74% (23-8) system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!

3* NBA Total No Brainer on Cavaliers/Pacers UNDER

These two teams met earlier this month in Indiana and the Pacers came away with a surprising 103-99 home win, which is one of just two losses the Cavaliers have suffered over their last 20 games. While that last meeting finished above the mark set for this one, I look for a much lower scoring game in the rematch.

Indiana is going to be motivated against James, while Cleveland will be motivated with revenge. That's not the only key factor favoring a low-scoring game. The Cavaliers will be without starting point guard Kyrie Irving and aren't going to be looking to push the pace in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. Keep in mind that the Pacers are allowing just 96.4 ppg at home and Cleveland is giving up a mere 94.2 ppg over their last 5.

UNDER is 9-2 in the Cavaliers last 11 road games against a team with a losing home record, 21-5 in their last 26 against an opponent who allowed 100 or more in their last game and 10-3 in their last 13 following a SU win. UNDER is also 7-3 in the Pacers last 10 home games against a team with a winning road record and 12-3 in their last 15 home games against teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers/game. These trends combine to form a 79% (59-16) system. Take the UNDER!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Rutgers +

We are seeing a huge overreaction here with this spread, due to the fact that the Boilermakers have gone an impressive 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games. The key thing to note about this stretch is that only 3 times during this stretch was Purdue favored by more than 3 points and the most they were favored was by 7.5 at home against Nebraska.

Rutgers is without a doubt the worst team in the Big Ten and come in having lost 11 straight since that unthinkable home upset win against Wisconsin. They are also just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games, which adds to the inflated line in this matchup. While Rutgers has had some ugly losses of late, they only lost by 10-points at home to Purdue back on Feb. 12, despite scoring just 16 points in the 1st half and shooting a mere 33.3% on the game.

The big key here is this is not a game the Boilermakers are going to be all that motivated for. They come in off a huge 67-63 win over in-state rival Indiana and have two big road games on deck against Ohio State and Michigan State.

Rutgers is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games after two straight contests with 12 or less assists, plus we find a huge system in play. Road underdogs who have failed to cover the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games against an opponent that has covered the number in 8 or more of their last 10 are 32-11 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 74% system in favor of the Scarlet Knights. Take Rutgers!

3* Arizona/Colorado Pac-12 Main Event on Colorado +

The Buffaloes have a history of playing elite teams tough at home and I will gladly take my chances on Colorado as a double-digit dog at home against Arizona. Colorado is just 1-5 both SU and ATS in their last 6 games, which is aiding in this inflated line on the Wildcats.

The big key here is the situation heavily favors the Buffaloes. Arizona is going to have a difficult time getting up for this game. The Wildcats already beat Colorado by 14-points at home earlier this season and are in a huge letdown spot following a big home game against UCLA and an even bigger game at Utah on deck Saturday. Arizona has just a 1-game lead over the Utes in the Pac-12 standings.

Colorado is 60-39 ATS in their last 99 games against teams who are making 48% or more of their shots, 32-17 ATS in their last 49 after 15+ games versus teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after failing to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. These trends combine to form a strong 64% (102-58) system in favor of the Buffaloes. Take Colorado!

5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Cavaliers -

The Cavaliers are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Warriors. Cleveland has turned the corner and are arguably playing the best basketball of any team in the league right now. The Cavaliers have won 16 of 19 overall and 10 straight at home by an impressive 15.2 ppg.

The Warriors did hand Cleveland a 112-94 defeat on their home floor back on Jan. 9, but the Cavaliers had yet to hit their stride and were playing without LeBron James. That loss only adds fuel to the fire for this matchup for Cleveland.

That earlier loss and the Warriors amazing start to the season is a big reason why the Cavaliers are showing such great value at home. The key here is that Golden State has been extremely overvalued of late due to their strong start. The Warriors are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.

Cavaliers are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games revenging a loss of 10 or more points, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 following a SU win, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games overall and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 against the Western Conference. These trends combine to form a 79% (49-13) system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland!

3* Illinois/Iowa Big Ten Main Event on Illinois +

This is a great spot to fade the Hawkeyes, who are being overvalued here due to the fact that they come in off back-to-back blowout wins over Rutgers (81-47) and Nebraska (74-46). It's a similar scenario to what we saw earlier this month. The Hawkeyes cruised to wins over Michigan (72-54) and Maryland (71-55), only to lose at home to Minnesota 59-64 as a 6.5-point favorite next time out.

Adding to the inflated line here is that Illinois comes in off back-to-back losses to Wisconsin (49-68) and Michigan State (53-60). Prior to these two defeats, the Fighting Illini had won 4 straight. I don't know that they will be able to pull off the outright upset, but I look for them to have no problem covering the spread in what figures to be a closely contested game that comes down to the wire.

Illinois is 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games off 2 or more consecutive losses, plus we find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Hawkeyes. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 15+ games, who are an average shooting team (42.5% to 45%) against a poor shooting team (40% to 42.5%) after a game where they held their opponent to 33% or worse from the field are just 11-36 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Fighting Illini. Take Illinois!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Florida St +

The Seminoles are showing big time value here as a 7.5-point dog against the struggling Hurricanes. Miami has dropped 5 of their last 8 games, which includes a 20-point home loss to Georgia Tech. This team has lost its confidence and I look for them to struggle to play up to their potential off a heartbreaking 53-55 loss at Louisville last time out.

Florida State on the other hand, has been gaining momentum down the stretch. The Seminoles did lose their last game, but there's nothing to be ashamed about a 10-point loss on the road against Virginia. Overall the Seminoles have won 6 of 10 and that loss the Cavaliers is their only defeat during this stretch by more than 6-points.

Miami went into Florida State earlier this season and built up a 36-25 halftime lead, only to lose 54-55. That sets up the Hurricanes in favorable system to fade. Home teams with just two returning starters who are revenging a loss where they scored 60 points or less are just 223-339 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a massive 60% system in favor of the Seminoles. Take Florida State!

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Timberwolves -

The Timberwolves are showing some solid value here as small home favorite against the Wizards. Washington has been in a complete free fall of late, as they come in having lost 4 straight and 9 of 11 overall. This may seem like a good spot for them to bounce back against a Minnesota team that has been one of the worst in the league, but the Timberwolves are playing much better basketball of late and will be extremely motivated to get revenge from an ugly 14-point loss at Washington earlier this season.

The big key here is this is a horrible spot for the Wizards. Washington comes in off a huge home game against the Warriors last night and are going to find it difficult to find the energy needed to play on the road with no rest. It's not just the back-to-back that's going to limit the Wizards. This will be their 4th game in the last 6 days.

Washington is just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after playing a game with a combined score of 205 or more points and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 against up-tempo teams that are averaging 83 or more shots per game. Wizards are also 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams with losing records, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games on no rest and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 following a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 81% (43-10) system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

4* Nets/Pelicans ATS No Brainer on Nets -

The Nets come in to this one off back-to-back road wins over the Lakers (114-105) and Nuggets (110-82) and I look for them to carry over that momentum with a road win over the short-handed Pelicans. New Orleans has won two straight, but aren't going to be able to maintain this success with the likes of Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson both sidelined with injuries.

The Nets quietly got better at the trade deadline by dealing away aging veteran Kevin Garnett and adding in Thaddeus Young, who gives them some a big contributor off the bench to go with Lopez. It's also worth noting that Brooklyn had been playing well even before the trade, as they have now covered 7 of their last 10.

The Nets are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 off a road blowout win by 20+ points. We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of the Pelicans. Teams off two or more upset wins as an underdog against an opponent off 2 or more straight covers as a favorite are 19-46 ATS since 1996. That's a 71% System in favor of the Nets. Take Brooklyn!

5* Big East Game of the Month on Marquette +

The Golden Eagles are showing some great value here as a 9.5-point underdog against the Bulldogs. Marquette went on the road and gave Villanova a run for their money in a 76-87 loss, despite playing without two of their best players in Matt Carlino and Juan Anderson. Both were close to returning for that game, which is a good sign that they will be back for this contest.

Even if Carlino and Anderson are both sidelined, I still like the Golden Eagles to keep this one close enough to cover the big spread. Butler was fortunate to escape with a 72-68 overtime win at Marquette earlier this season. The Bulldogs rallied from a double-digit deficit in the final 5 minutes. Andrew Chrabascz played a big role in that win, scoring a career-high 30 points, but he won't be available for this one, as he's out 2-4 weeks. In their first two games without Chrabascz, Butler barely won 58-56 at Creighton and got rolled at Xavier 56-73.

Marquette is just 3-8 SU on the road, but are a strong 8-3 ATS. Not only is this a great spot for them to cover, but I like their chances of winning this game outright. The Golden Eagles are 38-14 ATS in their last 52 road games when listed as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points and 33-17 ATS in their last 50 games when revenging a home loss.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are coming off a home game where both teams scored 75+ points against an opponent off a road loss by 10+ points are 59-26 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% system in favor of the Golden Eagles. Take Marquette!

4* Kentucky/Miss St ATS Heavy Hitter on Miss St +

Oddsmakers have drastically inflated this line in favor of the Wildcats, creating huge value here on the Bulldogs as a massive home dog. Kentucky is one of the biggest public bets out there and are simply being overvalued here due to covering three straight.

Mississippi State has been playing much better of late, despite the fact that they are just 1-4 in their last 5 games. During this stretch the Bulldogs have had heartbreaking losses at home to Alabama (51-55), Ole Miss (65-71) and Arkansas (61-65). Their lone win was a 77-74 victory at Missouri, who was only a 17.5-point underdog at home to the Wildcats

Mississippi State is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 when they come in having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6, 34-19 ATS in their last 53 home games off 2 or more consecutive losses, a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games off a loss by 6-points or less and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games against teams outscoring opponents by 8+ ppg. These trends add up to form a 71% (62-25) system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Mississippi State!

4* Indiana/Northwestern Vegas Insider on Indiana -

The Hoosiers are showing some great value here as a slim road favorite against the Wildcats. Indiana is still trying to secure their ticket to the big dance and simply can't afford a loss here to Northwestern. Very similar scenario to their last game, which saw them go on the road and annihilate Rutgers 84-54.

The big reason we are getting such great value here with the Hoosiers, is the fact that Northwestern has came out of nowhere to win 3 straight. Prior to this stretch the Wildcats had lost their previous 10 conference games. Northwestern followed up four straight covers earlier this season with a 23-point home loss to Wisconsin and recently followed up 3 straight covers with a 8-point home loss to Purdue.

Last time out the Wildcats rolled to a 60-39 home win over Penn State, but that sets them up in a bad spot. Northwestern is a mere 2-14 ATS in their last 16 home games off a conference home win. They are also a mere 0-6 ATS over the last 3 seasons in home games against teams who average 8 or more made 3-pointers per game. These two trends combine to form a 91% (20-2) system in favor of the Hoosiers. Take Indiana!

3* Boise St/New Mexico Late Night Bailout on New Mexico +

This may seem like a favorable spot to back Boise State at home, given how they have dominated on their home floor and the fact that they won by 10-points at New Mexico (69-59) earlier this season, but I think the value here is with the Lobos.

The Broncos come in off a blowout win at home against Nevada (78-46) and have a huge game on deck at San Diego State, which could end up deciding who wins the Mountain West regular season title. Perfect scenario for Boise State to suffer a bit of a letdown at home against an opponent they can't be all that concerned about.

Boise State is just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 after playing their previous game as a home favorite, while New Mexico is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams who average 12 or fewer turnovers and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road underdogs who have failed to cover the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games against an opponent that has covered the spread in 8 or more of their last 10 are 32-10 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 76% system in favor of the Lobos. Take New Mexico!

4* NBA Total Dominator on Raptors/Mavericks UNDER

The books have set the mark too high in this one, as I don't see this game reaching 200 points. While these are two of the highest scoring teams in the NBA on the season, Toronto is averaging just 92.0 ppg over their last 5 and the Mavericks are putting up just 95.4 ppg over their last 5. It's also important to note that both teams have also been limiting opponents on the defensive end. The Raptors are allowing just 90.6 ppg over their last 5 and Dallas is giving up just 96.4.

Dallas is still trying to get use to playing with Rondo and are also adjusting to a new rotation with the addition of Amar'e Stoudemire. It's going to take some time before they get going offensively. This will be the Mavericks 4th game in the last 6 days and the Raptors 4th in the last 5. Neither team figures to be playing at a fast pace due to the lack of rest, which also adds some great value to this one going below the mark.

UNDER is 8-1 in the Mavericks last 9 home games after going under the total in 2 or more consecutive games, 7-0 in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference and 5-0-1 in their last 6 at home against a team that's won 60% or more of their road games. UNDER is also 9-1 in the Raptors last 10 after a close loss by 3 points or less and 13-4 in their last 17 against teams outscoring opponents by 3+ points/game. These trends combine to form a 88% (42-6) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Maryland +

The Terrapins are showing some great value here as a home underdog against the Badgers. Wisconsin essentially has the Big Ten regular season title wrapped up, as they have a 3-game lead with just 4 games left to play. This game means a lot more to Maryland, who would be in prime position to finish 2nd in the conference with a win.

Wisconsin isn't going to lay down for the Terrapins, but there's certainly reason to believe the Badgers could struggle to leave College Park with a win. Maryland is a dominant 16-1 at home with their only loss coming to Virginia way back on Dec. 3.

One of things that gets overlooked with the Badgers impressive 25-2 record is that they have played a soft schedule in true road games. Inside conference play their 6 road games have come against the likes of Northwestern, Rutgers, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska and Penn State, who are all in the bottom 8 of the standings. I don't think there's any question that this is the toughest road game the Badgers will have played all season and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they lost outright.

Maryland is 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games against teams outscoring opponents by 12+ points/game after 15+ games and are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games off 3 straight conference wins. We also see that teams who have won 18 or more of their last 20 games that are playing their 3rd game in a week span are just 44-75 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 63% system in favor of the Terrapins. Take Maryland!

4* Kansas/Kansas St Big 12 ESPN No Brainer on Kansas St +

The Wildcats are showing some great value here as a decently priced home dog against their in-state rivals. Kansas State is being way undervalued here due to the fact that they have lost 7 of their last 8. Keep in mind that 5 of those 8 came on the road.

Kansas' only two road wins inside conference play by more than the number listed here have come against Texas Tech and Texas. The Jayhawks barely escaped with wins at Baylor (56-55) and TCU (64-61), while losing on the road to Iowa State, Oklahoma State and West Virginia.

This isn't the first time Kansas has been overvalued on the road and those that have faded the Jayhawks away from home in a similar spot have enjoyed some nice profits. Kansas is a mere 6-15 ATS over the last 3 seasons when listed as a road favorite and just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 road games after winning 12 or more of their last 15 games. Adding to this is the fact that Kansas State is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 after failing to cover the number in 2 of their last 3 games and 14-2 ATS in their last 16 against teams who have won 80% or more of their games. These trends combine to form a strong 76% (60-19) system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Kansas State!

3* NBA Eastern Conference Total Annihilator on Bulls/Bucks UNDER

I'm expecting a low scoring affair tonight between these two Central Division rivals. Both teams come in playing well and there's just 3.5-game separating the two. Chicago has won 5 of 6, while the Bucks have taken 9 of their last 11.

Not only am I expecting both teams to bring the defensive intensity, but the Bucks current form adds some value here to this one. Milwaukee was active at the trade deadline, trading away Brandon Knight, while acquiring Michael Carter-Williams, Tyler Ennis and Miles Plumlee. Carter-Williams hasn't played in either of the Bucks first two games since the break and is doubtful tonight. Milwaukee also hasn't any time to practice and form some chemistry, as they get ready to play the second of a back-to-back set and 3rd in 4 overall.

Each of the Bucks first two games since the break have been extremely low-scoring largely due to this. They combined for just 170 points in a 89-81 win over the Nuggets on Friday and just 183 in yesterday's 86-97 loss to Atlanta. Adding to this is the fact that each of the first two meetings this season have combined for 182 or less.

UNDER is 15-5 in the Bucks last 20 off 2 or more consecutive games that finished under the total, 9-1 in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 or more in their last game, 8-1 in their last 9 against at team that's won 60% or more of their games and 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on no rest. UNDER is also 21-12 in the Bulls last 33 with a total of 190 to 199.5 and 32-16 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. These trends combine to form a 71% (89-36) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Game of the Month on Timberwolves +

The Timberwolves are showing some great value here as a near double-digit underdog to the Rockets. Minnesota has quietly started playing much better basketball of late and the books are slow to adjust based on their 12-42 overall record. The Timberwolves returned from the All-Star break with a win at home over the Suns, giving them 4 wins in their last 6 games.

The Rockets bounced back from a 110-111 loss at Dallas with a 98-76 blowout win at home over the Raptors, which is also playing into this inflated line. The key thing here is that Houston was all business against Toronto after losing to the Mavericks. I don't see that same intensity here in what will be their 3rd game in 4 days and a much bigger home game against the Clippers on deck, who they recently lost to by 15-points back on Feb. 11.

The Rockets won the most recent meeting 114-112 at Minnesota, which sets up the Timberwolves in a profitable spot. Minnesota is 12-4 ATS this season revenging a home loss. The Timberwolves are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when playing on 2 days rest. It's also worth noting that Houston is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. These trends combine to form a dynamite 84% (27-5) system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

5* Western Conference Total of the Month on Grizzlies/Blazers UNDER

The books have set the mark too high in this one. Memphis will be playing their first game since the All-Star break and will be looking to start off strong after going into the break with an embarrassing 89-105 loss at Oklahoma City. The Trail Blazers are also going to be motivated here after an ugly 76-92 loss at Utah in their first game back from the break.

Portland is a strong offensive team, but will take some time to adjust to the additions of Alonzo Gee and Arron Afflalo. I look for the Trail Blazers to struggle to get going offensively here against one of the best defensive teams in the league. Portland is better defensively than people give them credit for, especially at home where they are allowing just 93.1 ppg.

UNDER is 19-9 in Portland's 28 home games this season, 22-10 in their last 32 home games after failing to cover the spread last time out and 27-12 in their last 39 off an upset loss by 10+ points.

Adding to this is a strong system. UNDER is 63-23 over the last 5 seasons on Sunday when you have a total of 190 to 199.5, with a team playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. That's a 73% long-term system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

4* Indiana/Rutgers Big Ten Game of the Week on Rutgers +

Rutgers is showing some great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Hoosiers. Indiana is a completely different team on the road than they are at home, as they are just 3-7 away from home on the season. They are just 1-5 on the road inside Big Ten play and I just don't see them turning this into a blowout.

Rutgers has had a difficult time in their first go of things in the Big Ten, but they have been competitive at home. A big key here is the Scarlet Knights lost by just 8-points at Indiana earlier in the season. Not only is that a good sign that they can keep it close enough to cover, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if they won this game outright and put an end to their 10-game losing streak.

Indiana is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs a team with a losing home record. Take Rutgers!

3* NBA Early Bird Over/Under Total Annihilator on Cavs/Knicks UNDER

The books have set the mark too high for this early matchup on Sunday between the Knicks and Cavaliers. Cleveland returned from the All-Star break with a blowout 127-89 win at Washington on ESPN and I just don't see them being 100% invested in this one. New York is one of the worst teams in the league and the Cavaliers know they can show up for half this game and come away with a win.

While Cleveland is just going through the motions, I expect the Knicks to come out with a lot of energy at home against LeBron James and company. New York not only is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA (92.4 ppg), they are 28th in the league in pace (92.9). The Knicks know they have know chance if this turns into a shootout, which will have them trying to limit the number of possessions in this game.

UNDER is 12-3 in the Cavaliers last 15 games played on Sunday, 22-3 in their last 25 after 5 or more consecutive games that finished over the total and 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. UNDER is also 15-6 in the Knicks last 21 home games and 5-1 in their last 6 off a SU loss by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a dynamite 81% (61-14) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on Weber State +

The Wildcats are showing some great value here as a decently priced road underdog against Montana. Weber State was able to snap a short two-game losing streak with a 74-71 win at Montana State and won't have to travel far to take on the Grizzlies, who they already beat at home earlier this season 68-60.

While Montana is a strong 10-3 SU at home, they are typically overvalued at home where they are just 5-5-1 ATS. That's especially been the case of late, as the Grizzlies are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 at home. Weber State on the other hand is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.

Montana shot a ridiculous 59.2% from the field in their last game, yet only managed to beat a bad Idaho State team at home by 10-points. Adding to this is the fact that the Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after a contest where they shot 55% or better from the field. That's a perfect 100% system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Weber State!

4* Raptors/Rockets NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Rockets -

The Rockets are showing some great value here at basically a pick'em at home against the Raptors. Toronto is simply being overvalued here after last night's 25-point road win over the Hawks as a 5.5-point underdog. Houston on the other hand lost 100-111 at Dallas in their first game back from the break.

The thing to keep in mind is that the Rockets were short handed last night after making a couple of last minutes trades. They will be welcoming their new additions of Pablo Prigioni and K.J. McDaniels to the lineup tonight and I look for Houston to respond here with a big win at home.

The Rockets are a dominant 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after a SU loss and 23-12 ATS in their last 35 home games against a team with a winning record. We also find a strong system in play. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 in a game involving 2 poor defensive teams (98-102 ppg) after a combined score of 205 or more points in 2 straight games are 41-15 ATS since 1996. That's a 73% system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston!

4* Atlantic 10 ATS Vegas Insider on George Washington +

The Colonials are going to come out extremely motivated after suffering a heartbreaking 63-65 home loss to Davidson last time out. George Washington is also being way undervalued here due to having lost 6 straight against the spread, while Richmond comes in off a 15-point road win over St Bonaventure as a 1-point underdog.

The key here is that George Washington beat Richmond at home earlier this season 73-70, plus they won 73-65 in their last road game against the Spiders. Prior to their big win over St Bonaventure, Richmond had gone just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games, which included a mere 2-point home win Fordham and a 5-point home loss to Rhode Island.

The Spiders are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record, a mere 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing 60 points or less in their last contest and are just 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games against a strong defensive team that is holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field. These trends combine to form a 74% (37-13) system in favor of the Colonials. Take George Washington!

5* Big 12 Game of the Year on West Virginia +

The Mountaineers snapped out of their recent funk with a huge 62-61 home win over Kansas and I look for them to carry over that momentum on the road against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State isn't exactly coming in with a lot of confidence, as they followed up a 15-point road loss at TCU with a 65-70 home defeat to ISU.

While the Cowboys have been strong at home this season, West Virginia is a respectable 10-3 on the road and I look for them to come out extremely motivated given their recent bad losses on the road to ISU (59-79) and Oklahoma (52-71).

Oklahoma State is just 12-26 ATS over the last 3 seasons when facing a team with a winning record after 15+ games and just 8-19 ATS when their opponent in this spot is outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game. Cowboys are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on Saturday and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 after 2 straight games with 9 or fewer offensive rebounds. These trends combine to form a 66% (64-27) system in favor of the Mountaineers. Take West Virginia!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Elon +

The Phoenix are showing some great value here as a decently priced road underdog against Delaware. Elon is simply being undervalued here due to the fact that they are 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS over their last 7 games.

The Blue Hens are just 8-18 overall and are fortunate to even have 8 wins. Delaware's 11-point home win over UNC Wilmington in their last contest was their first win all season by more than 6-points. Adding even more value here is the fact that Elon won convincingly at home over the Blue Hens 94-82 back on Jan. 24. I'll gladly take my chances on the Phoenix keeping this one close enough to cover and wouldn't be surprised at all if they won this game outright.

There's also a strong system in play. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have went over the total by 54 or more combined points in their last 10 games, who have won just 20% to 40% of their games on the season are 76-32 ATS since 1997. That's a 70% system in favor of the Phoenix. Take Elon!

4* Early Bird NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Seton Hall +

This may seem like a good spot to fade Seton Hall with leading scorer Sterling Gibbs expected to sit this one out because of a suspension, but I actually think it has the Pirates showing some great value here.

When a team loses their best player, it can be difficult for their opponent to take them as seriously as they should and I expect the Red Storm to do just that, especially given the fact that Seton Hall enters having lost 5 straight. St John's also isn't coming into this one all that confident after an ugly 22-point loss at Georgetown.

The Pirates are 32-17 ATS in their last 49 road games of 2 straight conference losses, 17-6 ATS in their last 23 off a blowout loss by 20 or more points and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games after a loss by 15+ points. St John on the other hand is just 5-17 ATS in their last 22 home games after a game where they shot 33% or worse from the field.

Adding to this is a strong system. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a road loss by 10+ points, who are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) against a team with a winning record are 104-60 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 63% system in favor of the Pirates. Take Seton Hall!

4* Celtics/Kings NBA Vegas Insider on Kings -

The Kings were expecting a lot better than the 18-34 mark they took into the All-Star break, but there's reason to get excited about the future in Sacramento. The Kings have brought in George Karl to take over at head coach and I look for an inspired effort in his debut tonight.

While the Kings will be highly motivated to win their first game under Karl, the Celtics find themselves in a difficult spot. Boston made a trade for Suns point guard Isaiah Thomas in exchange for Marcus Thorton, but Thomas isn't expected to be available for this contest. That's a problem considering both Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk are both out indefinitely. The Celtics only player who is expected to suit up tonight that is averaging double-figures on the season is Avery Bradley at 13.4 ppg.

Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more combined points in their last 10 games against an opponent that has gone under the total by 48 or more combined points in their last 7 games are 65-31 ATS since 1996. That's a 68% system in favor of the Kings. Take Sacramento!

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Timberwolves -

The Suns were extremely active at the trade deadline and as a result are going to be short-handed tonight. Phoenix traded away both Isaiah Thomas and Goran Dragic. While they did acquire Brandon Knight from Milwaukee, he's not expected to be available for this contest.

It's going to take some time for Phoenix to adjust to life without Thomas and Dragic. Simply put, this is a great spot for the Timberwolves to get a win at home. Minnesota started to get healthy going into the break and had won three straight before losing their last two against two of the best teams in the league in Atlanta and Golden State.

Minnesota has lost each of the first two meetings this season, but were extremely competitive in a 111-113 home loss back on Jan. 6. The Timberwolves are 29-15 ATS in their last 44 games when playing with double-revenge, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 when playing on 3 or more days rest and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against the Western Conference. Suns are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 overall and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.

Adding to this is a strong system. teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are coming off a home loss (Timberwolves), playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 69-32 ATS since 1996. That's a 68% system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Cavaliers -

The Cavaliers went into the All-Star break with an ugly 98-113 loss to the Bulls in a nationally televised game on TNT. Even with that defeat, Cleveland went into the break having won 14 of 16 and I look for them to come out with a statement win against the Wizards on ESPN.

Washington made a trade for Ramon Sessions, but he's not expected to be available. The Wizards are still without the services of Bradley Beal and they went into the break having lost 6 of their last 8. Washington is just 17-40 ATS in their last 57 home games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who have won 60% to 70% of their games and just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Wizards. Home teams revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points against an opponent that is off an upset loss as a favorite to a division rival are just 11-42 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 79% system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland!

5* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Oregon State +

The Beavers are showing some tremendous value here as a decently sized home dog against the Utes. While Utah has the stronger overall and conference marks, Oregon State is a perfect 14-0 at home, which includes wins over the likes of Arizona St, Arizona and UCLA. This could very well be where their home winning streak comes to an end, but I don't see them losing here by more the spread.

It's not just this season where the Beavers have played well at home. They are 22-7-2 ATS in their last 31 home games overall. Oregon State is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against excellent teams that are shooting 45% or better from the field and holding opponents to 42% or worse. The Beavers do come into this game off back-to-back road losses at UCLA and USC, but are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following two or more consecutive defeats. These trends combine to form a 80% (43-11) system in favor of the Beavers. Take Oregon State!

4* Spurs/Clippers NBA Vegas Insider on Spurs -

The Clippers finished up with back-to-back blowout wins at Dallas (115-98) and at home against the Rockets (110-95) prior to the All-Star break, despite the fact that they were without All-Star power forward Blake Griffin. I just don't see them maintaining that level of success without Griffin and I look for them to struggle coming out of the break against the Spurs.

San Antonio will be all business in this one, as they haven't forgot about that 20-point loss the Clippers handed them on their home floor back on Jan. 31. The Spurs are finally healthy and are poised to go on big run down the stretch. Keep in mind that San Antonio had won each of the previous 4 meetings in the series, including a 113-103 road win in their last visit to LA, which just so happened to be the first game both teams after last year's All-Star break.

Clippers are just 11-21 ATS in their last 32 games against teams that are averaging 99+ points/game, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off 3 or more days of rest and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games against teams with a winning road record.

Teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite, who are playing just their 3rd or less game in 10 days are 36-12 ATS since 1996. That's a 75% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!

3* Small Conference Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas St +

This may seem like a favorable spot to back Arkansas-Little Rock at home, considering they won 75-65 on the road at Arkansas State back on Jan. 29, but I think the value here is with the Red Wolves. Arkansas State actually had a 13-point lead early in that game, but were done in by the hot shooting of Josh Hagins, who had a career-high 28 points on 10 of 13 shooting.

Couple other things from that first meeting that favor the Red Wolves being more competitive the second time around, is the fact that Arkansas State had a 39-28 edge on the boards and committed a season-high 19 turnovers. The Red Wolves should be able to maintain their advantage on the glass and take much better care of the basketball with a better understanding of how Little Rock is going to attack them defensively.

It's also worth noting that Arkansas State has actually played better on the road than at home. The Red Wolves are 6-7 SU and 7-5 ATS on the road, compared to 3-7 SU and 2-6 ATS at home. Arkansas State is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games after playing their previous game on the road, while the Trojans are just 2-10 ATS when they come in having covered 2 or more consecutive games.

Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, revenging a loss of 10 or more points, who have won 20% to 40% of their games, playing a team with a losing record are 156-98 ATS since 1997. That's a 61% system in favor of the Red Wolves. Take Arkansas State!

3* Colorado/Oregon Late Night ATS Bailout on Colorado +

The Buffaloes are showing some great value here as a 6-point dog against the Ducks. Colorado snapped a 3-game losing streak with an impressive 64-58 home win over Stanford on Sunday, while Oregon lost 63-72 at UCLA on Saturday.

The Ducks are just 5-8 ATS inside conference play and I think this is too many points for them to be laying at home against a Colorado team that has had their number of late. The Buffaloes have won and covered in each of the last 4 meetings in the series, which includes a 48-47 win as a 7-point dog in their last trip to Eugene.

Colorado is 20-9 ATS in their last 29 games after a combined score of 125 or less points in their last contest, while Oregon is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 when they come in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 and are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. These trends combine to form a strong 71% (35-14) system in favor of the Buffaloes. Take Colorado!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Missouri +

Arkansas comes into this game having won 7 of their last 8 and have covered the spread in each of their last 5. Missouri on the other is riding an 11-game losing streak and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5. All this adds up to the books drastically inflating this line in favor of the Razorbacks. Keep in mind that Arkansas was just a 6.5-point favorite at Missouri and were fortunate to win that game 61-60, as the Tigers missed two free throws with just 3.3 seconds left.

There's no question that Missouri feels like they should have won that game and will use that loss as a huge motivator for this matchup. While I don't think the Tigers will have what it takes to keep it close enough to have a chance to pull off the upset, they should have no problem covering this massive spread.

Home favorites of 10 or more points who have covered the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, who have won 80% or more of their games against a team that's won just 20% to 40% of their games are a mere 9-30 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Tigers. Take Missouri!

5* UNC/Duke In-State Rivalry Game of the Month on UNC +8.5

I know the Tar Heels aren't coming into this game playing their best basketball, but this is too many points for a team as talented as North Carolina to be catching in arguably the biggest rivalry in college basketball. The Tar Heels have dropped 3 of their last 4, but a couple of those can be credited to poor effort. They blew a 18-point lead in a loss at Louisville that snapped a 6-game winning streak and last time out they allowed Pittsburgh to shoot 65% from the field.

A lack of effort won't be an issue against the Blue Devils and most importantly I think North Carolina matches up extremely well with Duke. They have a talented front line to throw at Okafor and the athleticism on the outside to keep up with the Blue Devils guards.

History is also on the Tar Heels side, as North Carolina has gone an impressive 13-4 ATS in their last 17 trips to Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Tar Heels are also 17-3 ATS in their last 20 off an upset loss as a road favorite and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games played in the month of February. These trends combine to form a 79% (44-12) system in favor of the Tar Heels. Take North Carolina!

5* NCAAB SEC Game of the Year on South Carolina +

South Carolina is being undervalued here off an ugly 34-point road loss to Kentucky. The Gamecocks will not only be motivated to bounce back, but they will have plenty of confidence against the Bulldogs. South Carolina defeated Georgia 67-50 at home back on Jan. 31 and in that win they held the Bulldogs to a mere 22.0% shooting.

Georgia isn't exactly coming into this game playing their best basketball. The Bulldogs have lost 3 of their last 5 after winning 5 straight, including a surprising 68-69 loss at home to Auburn as a 11-point favorite on Saturday. Georgia could be without a couple of key players in their rotation, as J.J. Frazier is expected to sit this one out and Juwan Parker is listed as questionable with an Achilles injury. While Parker didn't play in the first meeting against South Carolina, Frazier had a team-high 16 points.

Those that are wanting to play the revenge angle here, may want to reconsider. Home teams revenging a road loss to an opponent of 10 or more points, off a home loss by 3 points or less are 30-68 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 69% System in favor of the Gamecocks. Take South Carolina!