3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Siena +

The Saints are showing some great value here as a decently sized road dog against the Griffins. Canisius comes in not playing their best basketball. The Griffins have lost 3 of their last 4 with their only win during this stretch coming against lowly Marist, who is 0-6 in the MAAC and 1-15 overall. While Siena lost last time out at home against Fairfield, the Saints have won 3 of their last 5.

One of the things that I like here is that the Saints have played the Griffins tough in each of their last two meetings. They lost 88-92 at home in overtime and 65-71 in the MAAC Tournament. Canisius only has 1 starter back from last year, while the Siena has 3 starters back, including their star in senior guard Rob Poole, who is averaging 14.8 points and 5.1 rebounds.

Canisius is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after playing their last game as a road underdog and 9-22 ATS in their last 31 after a road game where both teams scored 75+ points. Siena is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a double-digit loss at home and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 versus a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a 80% (45-11) system in favor of the Saints. Take Siena!

4* Hawks/Raptors NBA ATS No Brainer on Raptors -

While the Hawks come in on impressive 10-0 SU and 9-0 ATS runs, I think the value here is with the Raptors as a pick'em at home. Toronto is just 2-5 over their last 7 games, but come in off an impressive 16-point home win over the 76ers, which also marked the return of All-Star shooting guard DeMar DeRozan after a 21-game absence. DeRozan wasn't rusty at all, scoring 20 points on 9 of 14 shooting with 4 rebounds and 3 assists.

The key thing you have to keep in mind here is that the Raptors were the talk of the Eastern Conference when DeRozan was healthy to start the year. Toronto opened up 13-2 prior to DeRozan getting hurt in a 102-106 loss at Dallas. That strong start included two wins over the Hawks (109-102 at home and 126-115 at Atlanta). It's also worth noting that the Raptors are now 9-1 at home with a healthy DeRozan, compared to 7-4 without him in the lineup from start to finish.

Another big key here is rest. While Toronto will be playing their 5th straight at home and haven't played on consecutive days since late December. Atlanta on the other hand is playing their 3rd straight on the road in the span of just 4 days. Take Toronto!

5* Ohio Valley Game of the Month on Belmont +

We are getting exceptional value here with the Bruins catching double-digits against the Racers. Oddsmakers have inflated this line in favor of Murray State, who comes in having won 11 straight overall and are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 lined games. Adding to the value here is the fact that Belmont has failed to cover the spread in each of their last 4 games, including a 11-point loss at Eastern Illinois as a 4-point favorite last time out.

The thing you have to keep in mind with that loss to Eastern Illinois, is the fact that the Bruins shot a miserable 37.5%, while the Panthers connected on 59.3% of their attempts. There's a good chance Belmont isn't going to be that bad from the field in back-to-back games and I expect max effort defensively after allowing a team to almost shoot 60% from the field.

It's also worth noting that Murray State's strong 3-0 start in conference play, has come against some weak competition in Morehead State, Tennessee Tech and Jacksonville State, who are a combined 3-9 in the Ohio Valley.

The other key here is the recent history between these two teams have resulted in closely contested games. Adding to this is the fact that Belmont swept the season series a year ago, winning 99-96 at home as a 8-point dog and 70-68 at Murray State as a 7.5-point dog.

We also find a strong system in play backing a fade of Murray State. Favorites at least 15 games into the season, that have held each of their last 4 opponents under 40% shooting, who are shooting 47.5% or better on the season against a team that is allowing 42.5% to 45% are just 21-51 ATS since 1997. That's a 71% system in favor of the Bruins. Take Belmont!

4* Thunder/Rockets NBA on TNT Vegas Insider on Thunder +

This may seem like a favorable line to back the Rockets at home, but I think the value here is clearly with Oklahoma City. The Thunder come into this contest off a full 5-days of rest and are clearly not getting a lot of respect right now after failing to cover the spread in each of their last 6 games.

The big key here is that while Oklahoma City is coming off a much needed extended break, the Rockets are in a tough scheduling spot. Houston just played last night at Orlando, which they surprisingly loss 113-120 as a 9-point favorite. Not only will the Rockets being playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back, but this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights.

This game clearly means more to the Thunder who at 18-19 are in desperate need of a big run to get back in the playoff picture in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City will also be out for revenge from a 4-point home loss back in November.

All of this sets up a huge system. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 that are revenging a home loss, who are playing just their 3rd game in 10 days are 39-13 ATS since 1996. That's a 75% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Wofford -

The Terriers have owned this series, winning 15 of the last 16 meetings, including a 77-56 beatdown of Citadel the last time they traveled to McAlister Field House. Wofford comes in having won 4 straight and with a win can secure their best start to a season in over 20 years.

While both of the Terriers two road wins inside conference play against Samford and Chattanooga have come by 4-points or less, I'm confident Wofford will win here by double-digits. The Bulldogs two conference wins have come against a couple off bottom feeders. They come in off a 23-points loss at Mercer and lost to Chattanooga by 19 at home in their conference opener.

Both of these teams shoot the ball extremely well. Wofford is hitting on 45.5% of their attempts and Citadel is shooting 45.7%. The key here is the Terriers defense. Wofford is only allowing opponents to make 43.1% of their attempts and are strong at defending the 3-pointer. The Terriers are allowing opponents to hit just 29.7% from long-distance, which is key here as the Bulldogs offense relies heavily on the 3-pointer (hitting 40.5%).

Wofford is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 against teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers/game, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference road games, 16-6 ATS in their last 22 off a win by 10 or more points and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing record at least 16 games into the season. These trends combine to form a 81% (46-11) system in favor of the Terriers. Take Wofford!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Creighton +

Creighton has lost 5 straight overall and 7 in a row against the spread. The public wants nothing to do with the Bluejays right now, which has forced the books to inflate this line in favor of Marquette, who has covered in each of their last two and are 10-5 ATS overall.

I think the value here is with Creighton, who at 0-4 in the Big East are going to be laying everything on the line to get their first conference win. The Bluejays showed signs of life in their 67-68 loss at home to Seton Hall last time out. Creighton shot 51.1% from the field after 4 straight games at 35.8% or worse. I look for the Bluejays to build off that performance and give Marquette all they can handle. The Golden Eagles are just 1-2 in conference play and just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 against fellow Big East opponents.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play on the Blue Jays. Road underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 6 or 7 of their last 8 games against an opponent that has covered in 8 or more of their last 10 are 30-9 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Bluejays. Take Creighton!

3* Wizards/Bulls ESPN Main Event on Bulls -

The Bulls haven't been playing up to their potential here of late and come in off an ugly 114-121 home loss to the Magic. I think that loss to Orlando combined with their recent 86-102 defeat at Washington last Friday, is going to have Chicago coming out with one of their best performances of the season.

The Wizards certainly aren't going to back down, but this is a real tough spot for them. Washington laid everything on the line against the Bulls last Friday, they then had to go to Atlanta to take on the surging Hawks Sunday and returned home to face the Spurs last night. Now they have to travel to Chicago to face a pissed off Bulls team that is working on a full day of rest. I just don't see Washington having the energy here to keep this one close.

Washington is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 after covering the spread last time out, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games played on Wednesday and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when playing on 0 days of rest.

There's also a strong system that backs the Bulls off that ugly loss to the Magic. Teams who are off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 or points, are 34-11 ATS since 1996 in a game involving two strong teams that have won 60% to 75% of their games. That's a 76% system in favor of the Bulls. Take Chicago!

5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Celtics/Hawks OVER

These two teams combined for 214 points in the Hawks 109-105 home win back on Dec. 2. I'm expecting even more offensive fireworks in the rematch. The Celtics just put up 108 points on the Pelicans at home last time out and are averaging 104.7 ppg at home on the season. Atlanta has scored 100+ in 3 straight and are averaging 104.1 ppg on the road.

One of the big keys here is that both of these teams do an excellent job of sharing the basketball offensively. Atlanta averages 26 assists per game and Boston is right behind at 25. I look for the offenses to have their way in this one, as both teams don't figure to have a whole lot of energy left to use up on defense.

Hawks are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 days overall. I just don't see them giving max effort on defense here, especially with games against the Raptors and Bulls on deck this weekend. Celtics are playing with a day off, but this is their 4th game in the last 6 days. Boston also has a lot of new faces with their recent trades and aren't going to have the chemistry defensively to slow down an offense like the Hawks.

OVER is 5-1 in Atlanta's last 6 when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 32-16 in their last 48 when they come in having successfully covered the spread in 5 or more consecutive games. OVER is also 12-4 in the Celtics last 16 when they come in having lost 2 of 3 and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 off an upset win as an underdog.

Adding to this is a strong a system. OVER is 41-15 since 1996 in games with a total of 200 to 209.5, where you have a team that covered the spread last time out (Celtics) against an opponent that has covered in 6 or more straight games (Hawks). That's a 73% system. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on George Mason +

I think we are getting some great value here with George Mason listed as a road dog against the St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies have dropped 4 of their last 5, including a 41-60 road loss at Richmond last time out.

While George Mason has also dropped two straight, they have at least been competitive with a 10-point loss at Richmond and 4-point defeat to UMass. The Patriots had also covered 5 straight prior to losing their last two. It's also worth noting that George Mason has played the tougher schedule to this point.

Backing the Patriots on the road has been a wise investment over recent seasons. George Mason is 20-9 ATS in their last 29 road games. They are also 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3 and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off a conference home loss.

There's also a strong system in play. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a loss by 6 points or less against an opponent after a combined score of 110 points or less are 68-35 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% system in favor of the Patriots. Take George Mason!

4* NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Charleston +

This may seem like a favorable line to take Elon at home. The Phoenix are a respectable 10-7 overall and 2-2 inside CAA. Charleston on the other hand is a mere 5-12 overall and 0-4 inside CAA. However, I don't think there's as big a gap in talent as these records would indicate. Elon has played the much easier schedule and I think it has them overvalued.

The fact that Charleston is still winless in the conference adds even more value here. We can expect max effort here from the Cougars and you have to like the fact that they have won 6 of the last 7 meetings with the only loss being a 98-99 overtime defeat at Elon.

It's also worth noting that Charleston has a strong history as a road underdog. The Cougars are 63-36 (64%) in their last 99 road games when listed as an underdog or pick'em. Adding to this is the fact that Elon is a mere 13-27 ATS in their last 40 games against slow-down teams who average 53 or less shots/game.

We also find a strong system in play. Road teams who have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more combined points in their last 7 games are 145-90 ATS in the month of January since 1997. That's a 62% long-term system in favor of the Cougars. Take Charleston!

5* Miami/Duke ACC Game of the Month on Miami +

The first instinct when a team like Duke gets upset, is that they are going automatically going to come out an play their best game the next time out. I know the Blue Devils haven't lost back-to-back conference games in nearly 6 seasons, but they are being way overvalue here on the spread against a Miami team that is capable of winning this game outright.

The Hurricanes are 11-4 overall and just nearly upset undefeated Virginia at home in their ACC opener, losing in double-overtime. Miami bounced back with a 60-56 win over BC and I look for them to give the Blue Devils all they can handle. It's a lot different going into a game off a loss, especially after going this far into the year undefeated.

It's also worth noting that Miami has a history of playing well at Cameron Indoor Stadium. While the Hurricanes are just 1-4 SU in their last 5 visits they have 3-losses by exactly 3-points and their largest defeat during this stretch was 11-points and they were a 19-point underdog in that contest.

Miami is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Duke. Hurricanes are 30-16 ATS in their last 46 games against a top caliber team that's outscoring opponents by 12+ points/game at least 15 games in to the season, 29-12 ATS as a road underdog of 10 or more points and 12-2 over their last 14 when listed as a road underdog or pick'em. These trends combine to form a 72% (77-30) system in favor of the Hurricanes. Take Miami!

4* Spurs/Wizards NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Wizards -

Washington is showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Spurs. The Wizards are going to be extremely motivated off that ugly 31-point loss at Atlanta on Sunday and will also be out for revenge. Washington lost 92-101 at San Antonio back on Jan. 3.

The Wizards are being undervalued due to losing 4 of their last 7, but the key thing to note is that all of those losses came on the road. Just prior to losing at Atlanta, Washington rolled the Bulls 102-86 at home. The Wizards are and impressive 16-4 at home overall, while the Spurs are a mere 10-9 on the road.

San Antonio is going to go on a run at some points, but I don't see them really taking off until Kawhi Leonard returns from injury. Spurs are also without Aaron Baynes and could be missing both Manu Ginobili and Marco Belinelli, who are both listed as questionable.

Washington is 25-11 ATS in their last 36 when revenging a loss where the opponents scored 100 or more points and a 3-0-1 in their last 4 after failing to cover the spread in their last game. Spurs on the other hand are 2-6 ATS after a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after a SU win by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a 75% (38-13) system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!

3* Michigan/Ohio State NCAAB Main Event on Michigan +

This is way too many points for a rivalry game like this. Michigan has won each of the last 3 meetings and only once in the last 6 meetings have the Buckeyes won by more than double-digits. Let's not forget Ohio State just won the CFB National Championship, I wouldn't be shocked if the home fans weren't quite as rowdy as normal.

I just don't think Buckeyes will have the same energy as you typically would expect playing at home in this rivalry. Michigan on the other hand isn't going to take lightly to being a big underdog against a team they haven't lost to in two years. I also don't think there's a whole lot that separates these two teams talent wise. Ohio State has the better record, but Michigan has played the tougher schedule.

It's also important to note that the Buckeyes come in off a 66-69 road loss to Indiana. Ohio State is 0-6 ATS over the last 2 years when they come into a game off a road loss. Buckeyes are also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 overall against the Big Ten and 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 versus a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a 80% (24-6) system in favor of the Wolverines. Take Michigan!

4* Pelicans/Celtics NBATV ATS No Brainer on Pelicans -

This is a great spot to back the Pelicans as a small road favorite against the Celtics. Boston just made another big trade that sent their leading scorer in Jeff Green to Memphis. The chemistry with this Celtics team can't be good right now as they continue to have players coming and going.

New Orleans isn't going to care what the situation is for Boston. The Pelicans are on a mission to start off their 5-game road trip against the Eastern Conference with a win and I look for them to have no problem covering this small spread. New Orleans just has too much talent, especially inside with Anthony Davis, for Boston to overcome.

The Pelicans are just 18-18 overall and 6-13 on the road, but this is a team that would be near the top of the standings if they were playing in the East instead of the West. The fact that New Orleans comes in having failed to cover 2 of their last 3, sets them up in a favorable spot.

The Pelicans are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games when they fail to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3. Boston on the other hand is 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games after losing 3 of their last 4 and just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games after playing their previous game as an underdog. These trends combine to form a 80% (37-9) system in favor of the Pelicans. Take New Orleans!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Lakers +

The Lakers are showing some great value here as a home underdog against the Trail Blazers. LA won 101-84 at home as a mere 2.5-point favorite last time out. While they are just 4-8 SU over their last 12 games, they are a solid 9-3 ATS during this same stretch, including 3 straight covers at home.

One of the big keys here is the Lakers catch Portland in a great spot. The Trail Blazers will be on the road in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and playing their 3rd in the last 4 days overall. Portland is not nearly as good on the road as they are at home and are simply being overvalued here due to having the much better overall record.

Lakers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 versus the Western Conference, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent comes in after scoring 100+ in their last game and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. These trends combine to form a strong 90% (18-2) system in favor of the Lakers. Take Los Angeles!

4* Florida St/Syracuse NCAAB Heavy Hitter on Florida St +

I like the value we are getting here with the Seminoles as a double-digit underdog against the Orange. Florida state opened up conference play with an impressive 86-75 home win over Virginia Tech and have won 5 of their last 6 overall.

While Syracuse comes in having won 5 straight, they are fortunate to not be sitting 0-2 inside the ACC. The Orange won 68-66 at Virginia Tech and 46-45 at Georgia Tech. Don't read into last year's 74-58 road win for Syracuse over the Seminoles. The Orange are down by their standards this season and are struggling to get going offensively. Syracuse shot just 39% from the field against the Hokies and only 34.6% versus the Yellow Jackets. I look for that poor shooting to carry over against Florida State, which is going to make it difficult for the Orange to win here by double-digits.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in favor of the Seminoles. Underdogs in a game involving 2 poor 3-point shooting teams (32% or worse) at least 15 games into the season and off a game where they made at least 50% of their 3-point shots are 45-16 ATS since 1997. That's a 74% system in favor of the Seminoles. Take Florida State!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Magic/Trail Blazers OVER

The books have completely missed the mark on this total. A big reason for the low total here is the fact that Portland comes in having gone under the total in 4 of their last 5 and the Magic have finished below the mark in each of their last two.

The key here is that Orlando is playing in the 2nd game off a back-to-back set and their 3rd straight road game overall. That's an awful situation to be in against one of Trail Blazers, who have been dominant at home. Portland has not shot the ball well at all in their last two games. They hit just 39.8% from the field against the Lakers on Monday and only 42.1% against Miami on Thursday. The Trail Blazers are going to be motivated here to get their offense going and Orlando simply isn't going to have the energy defensively to stop them.

The other key here is I'm not expecting a ton of intensity from Portland on the defensive side of the ball. It's not easy getting motivated to play a bad team like the Magic and it's even harder to give max effort on defense when you are scoring at will offensively.

It's also worth noting that both of these teams tend to find themselves in high scoring games on Saturday. The OVER is 18-7 in the Magic's last 25 games on Saturday and 23-11 in the Trail Blazers last 34 on Saturday.

The OVER is also a solid 4-1 in Orlando's last 5 games when playing on no rest, 23-12 in the Trail Blazers last 35 with a total set at 190 to 199.5 points and 31-15 in Portland's last 46 when they come in having won 8 of their last 10.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. OVER is 35-10 since 1996 in games with a total of 190 to 199.5, where you have a team that has allowed 85 points or less (Portland) against an opponent that has scored 90 or less in 3 straight games. That's a 78% system. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Situational Total Dominator on Pacers/76ers OVER

When you consider the Pacers are scoring just 95.4 ppg and giving up just 96.8 ppg, your first instinct would be to take the UNDER given the 76ers come in averaging a mere 90.5 ppg. I believe the books have over-adjusted this total, creating some big time value on the OVER.

Indiana isn't going to bring the same defensive intensity against a horrible team like the 76ers, as they would against other teams, especially with how bad the 76ers are defensively. You also have to factor in the Pacers are coming off an overtime game against the Celtics last night. Philadelphia is giving up 106.7 ppg at home. Keep in mind the Pacers have scored and allowed 100+ in each of their last 3 games.

OVER is 9-1 in the Pacers last 10 when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 8-1 in their last 9 road games after they failed to cover the spread last time out. OVER is also 29-16 in 76ers last 45 home games after playing their last game on the road.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. The OVER is 31-5 since 1996 in games with a total of 180 to 189.5 points, where you have a team off an upset win as underdog of 10 or more points, that are playing 6 or more games in 10 days. That's a 86% system. Take the OVER!

5* C-USA Game of the Month on Charlotte -

The 49ers have been a huge disappointment this season, but I think it's created some solid value here on Charlotte against an inferior Marshall team. The 49ers are just 6-8 overall, but could easily be sitting with double-digit wins. Out of the 8 losses, 6 have come by 8-points or less, including their most recent loss at Western Kentucky (66-74). 

The Thundering Herd on the other hand are every bit as bad as their 4-11 record. Marshall's four wins this season have come against the likes of Jacksonville St, Savannah St, West Virginia Tech and King University. Part of the problem for the Thundering Herd during their current 1-11 stretch is the absence of senior forward Shawn Smith, who is one of just 3 players averaging over double-figures.

Marshall is just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against a team with a losing record and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 against a marginal losing team that's won 40%-49% of their games. The Thundering Herd are also just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 when playing with 1 or less days of rest and 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games played on a Saturday. These trends combine to form a 80% (44-11) system in favor of the 49ers. Take Charlotte!

4* Texas/Oklahoma State Big 12 Game of the Week on Texas +

The Longhorns should not be an underdog here against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State is simply not as good as their 11-3 record would indicate, while Texas is without a doubt one of the elite teams in the country. While the Cowboys are a solid 7-1 at home, they got beat 73-64 at home by Maryland back on Dec. 21 and the Longhorns are even better than the Terrapins.

The key here is Texas was just embarrassed on their home floor by the Sooners 49-70 this past Monday. The Longhorns have responded well after a loss this season and I look for them to come out looking to make a statement here against the Cowboys.

Oklahoma State is just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games against teams outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game at least 15 games into the season. Adding to this is a strong system telling us to fade the Cowboys. Teams off a close conference loss by 3-points or less against an opponent off an upset loss by 15 or more points as a favorite are just 6-25 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 81% system in favor of the Longhorns. Take Texas!

3* NCAAB No Doubt Rout on Colorado State -

The Rams are showing some great value here as a mere 5-point road favorite against Air Force. Colorado State is getting zero respect right now. The Rams come in off back-to-back losses to New Mexico and Wyoming and have lost 5 straight and 9 of 10 overall against the spread. The Falcons on the other hand have covered 2 of 3 and are fresh off a 22-point home win over San Jose State.

Last year the Rams won by 12-points at Air Force as a 3-point favorite and have won six straight overall in the series. It's also worth noting that prior to losing their last two games, Colorado State had opened the season 14-0 with road wins over Colorado, Denver and New Mexico State. The Falcons are 7-1 at home, but those 7 wins have come against Colorado Christian, Western State, Grambling, Nebraska-Omaha, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Jacksonville State and San Jose State. Nothing to get worried about.

Look for the Rams to come out with one of their best performances of the season, as they do not want to fall to 1-3 in conference play. Air Force was just 6-12 in the MWC last year and lost their leading scorer in Tre' Coggins. Most experts have the Falcons picked to finish in the bottom 3 in the MWC this year.

Rams head coach Larry Eustachy has guided his teams that he's coached to a 21-8 ATS record after they scored 60 points or less in each of their last two games. That's a 72% system in favor of the Rams. Take Colorado State!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Lakers -

The Lakers are way undervalued here after getting the crap kicked out of them in Wednesday's 89-114 loss to the Clippers, which saw them trail by as many as 43 points. Any time a team gets embarrassed like that, more times than not they bounce back with one of their better efforts.

The key thing to keep in mind here is that the Lakers had been playing a lot better prior to that loss. Los Angeles lost by just 4-points at Portland, defeated Indiana 88-87, lost by just 3-points at home to Memphis and upset Denver on the road 111-103 in their previous 4 games. Even with that loss to the Clippers, the Lakers are an impressive 8-3 ATS over their last 11 games.

Orlando has struggled to play well on the road against the LA, losing 4 of their last 5 visits to the Staples Center when matched up against the Lakers. I also look for them to have a difficult time coming out with a lot of energy after playing in the thin air of Denver on Wednesday.

Magic are just 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games, while the Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after failing to cover the spread last time out, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on Friday and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 versus a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. These trends combine to form a 79% (33-9) system in favor of the Lakers. Take Los Angeles!

4* NBA ATS No Brainer on Spurs -

Rarely will you find San Antonio undervalued on their home floor, but I believe that's the case tonight. The Spurs are getting no love after a 104-105 home loss to Detroit on Tuesday, which saw San Antonio blow an 18-point lead. The Suns on the other hand are getting all kinds of respect right now, as they come in having won 4 straight and 10 of their last 12 overall.

The key thing to note with Phoenix and their recent surge, is that they have taken advantage of a soft spot in their schedule. Of those 10 wins, 7 have come against the likes of the Hornets, Knicks, Kings, Lakers, 76ers, Bucks and Timberwolves. The Suns have just 1 win in their last 10 visits to San Antonio.

Another important factor here is the Spurs should have a healthy Tony Parker available for this matchup. Parker returned from a 5-game absence in that loss to Detroit, but only played 13 minutes as Popovich wanted to ease him back in his first game.

San Antonio is also well rested here, as they come in on a full 2 days rest and will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days. Phoenix on their other hand will be playing their 3rd straight road game in a span of just 4 days.

Home teams that are a strong shooting team (45.5%-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5%-45.5%), average rebounding team (+/- 3 rpg) against a poor rebound team (-3 to -5.5 rpg) are 77-45 ATS since 1996. That's a 63% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!

5* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month on Thunder -

I have no problem laying this big number here on the Thunder at home against the Jazz. Oklahoma City is ripe for a huge bounce back performance after two ugly shooting performances on the road against the Warriors and Kings. The Thunder went just 30-98 (30.6%) from the field in a 91-117 loss at Golden State on Monday and 29-89 (32.6%) in a 83-104 defeat at Sacramento on Wednesday.

It's a similar spot to what we saw back in last November. Oklahoma City was hosting the Jazz off a 86-91 loss at Golden State, where they shot just 35.6% from the field and the Thunder rolled Utah 97-82 at home behind a sizzling 48.2% shooting. The Jazz are allowing teams to make 46.4% of their shots on the season, including 37.2% from long distance.

I look for the Thunder to come out with one of their best performances of the season, as this team simply can't afford not to take every game seriously right now. Oklahoma City is a full 4-games back the Suns/Spurs for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in their 5 home games against the Jazz over the last 3 seasons and all 5 of those wins have come by at least 12 points. This is also a perfect spot to fade Utah off that 20-point win at Chicago as an 11-point dog. Underdogs that have won 25% to 40% of their games on the season, after beating the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game are a mere 6-26 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a dynamite 81% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

4* NCAAB C-USA Game of the Week on Southern Miss +

The Golden Eagles are showing some great value here as an underdog against UTSA. Southern Miss is being undervalued here due to having a worse record and coming in on a 4-game losing streak. The Roadrunners have played the easier schedule so far and that's the only reason they appear to be the better team.

UTSA is 1-1 in conference play, but their victory came against a bad North Texas Team. Their loss was a 15-point defeat to Rice, who many have pegged right alongside UTSA and North Texas at the bottom of C-USA.

Southern Miss did lose at home to Louisiana Tech in their conference opener 70-83, but keep in mind that the Bulldogs are 10-4, with three of their losses coming on the road against Temple (75-82), Syracuse (69-71) and NC State (65-73). This is a statement game for the Golden Eagles and I look for them to win this one outright. In the lone meeting last year between these two teams, Southern Miss won 85-56.

UTSA has not fared well against teams like the Golden Eagles, as they are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 versus slow-down teams who average 53 or less shots/game. The Roadrunners are also just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after playing their last game as a road underdog and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after covering the spread last time out. These trends combine to form a 82% (36-8) system in favor of the Golden Eagles. Take Southern Miss!

5* NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Charlotte +

The 49ers are showing big time value here as an underdog against Western Kentucky. While Charlotte is just 6-7 and the Hilltoppers are 8-5, the 49ers are the better team. Charlotte has simply played a much more difficult schedule. The 49ers 7 losses have come against Miami (10-4, twice), Davidson (10-3), George Washington (12-3), @Georgetown (10-4), @Georgia Tech (9-5) and Old Dominion (12-1). Adding to this is the fact that 5 of those 7 losses came by 8-points or less.

The key here is that we are getting Charlotte at a great price, due to the 49ers coming in having lost 3 straight, while Western Kentucky has won 3 in a row and 5 of 6. The Hilltoppers are also being overvalued here due to having gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 lined games.

Charlotte has thrived in the role of the underdog this season, going 7-1 ATS when they are catching points. 49ers are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Western Kentucky on the other hand is a mere 3-10 ATS in their last 13 following a SU win, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 off a home win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off 3 or more consecutive victories. These trends combine to form a 82% (40-9) system in favor of the 49ers. Take Charlotte!

3* NBA Blockbuster ATS Blowout on Raptors -

The Raptors should have no problem covering this massive spread at home against the Hornets. Toronto will be all business when they take the floor tonight, as they come in looking to snap a season-high 3-game losing streak. All 3 of those losses came on the tail end of their 6-game road trip. The Raptors have won 5 straight at home, with each of the last 4 coming by double-digits.

Toronto is also well rested here, as they have a full 3 days off since last playing on Sunday. Charlotte has played twice since the Raptors last game, including last night at home against the Pelicans. The Hornets will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and their 3rd in 4 days overall. Keep in mind they are still without their best play in Al Jefferson. I just don't see Charlotte being able to keep up here against a motivated Toronto team that is going to look to push the pace, knowing the Hornets are dealing with some tired legs.

Charlotte is a mere 19-33 ATS in their last 52 games when playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and just 15-29 ATS in their last 44 when listed as an underdog of 10 or more points.

Toronto is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 off a road loss and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games after 2 straight blowout losses by 15 or more points. Raptors are also 20-7 ATS in their last 27 when playing against a bad team that's won between 25% and 40% of their games. These trends here combine to form a 77% (53-16) system in favor of the Raptors. Take Toronto!

4* Thunder/Kings NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Thunder -

This is a great spot to back the Thunder, who are going to be extremely motivated after Monday's embarrassing 91-117 loss at Golden State. Oklahoma City simply can't afford to look past a team like the Kings, as they are sitting at just 17-18 overall, which has them 3-games back of 8th place in the West.

The Thunder have won 12 straight against the Kings and are catching Sacramento in a slump. The Kings are just 5-15 SU and 1-17-2 ATS in their last 20 games. Their 5 wins during this stretch have come against the likes of the Pacers, Jazz, Lakers, Knicks and Timberwolves. Oklahoma City has won by double-digits in each of their previous two trips to Sacramento, including a 104-92 road win back on Dec. 16.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are strong offensive teams, averaging 99+ ppg, after allowing 55 or more in the 1st half of their last two games are 62-28 ATS since 1996. That's a 69% long-term system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Maryland -

Maryland is showing some great value here as a small road favorite against Illinois. One of the reasons that I think we are getting some solid value here with the Terrapins, is the assumption that Fighting Illini will be motivated in their conference home opener and out to avoid an 0-3 start in Big Ten Play.

While Illinois may be motivated, they will also be without their best player in senior guard Rayvonte Rice, who fractured his hand in practice. Rice leads the team in scoring (17.2 ppg), rebounding (6.9 rpg) and steals (1.8 spg). He also was shooting 51.5% from the field and a team-high 48.3% from long distance. Malcolm Hill is the only other player who is averaging double figures.

Without Rice, Illinois simply has no chance of keeping this one close. Maryland comes in averaging 74.1 ppg on 46.2% shooting, but it's their defense that will be the difference here. The Terrapins are allowing just 61.3 ppg and holding opponents to just 36.9% shooting. In their conference opener, they went on the road and held Michigan State to just 32.3% shooting.

Illinois is 3-12 (20%) ATS in their last 15 home games after playing two straight conference matchups, 4-17 (19%) ATS in their last 21 home games when listed as an underdog of 3-points or less and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a conference road loss. Illini are also just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game at least 15 game into the season. These trends combine to form at 84% (43-8) system in favor of the Terrapins. Take Maryland!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Pistons/Mavs OVER

These two teams should have no problem eclipsing the total set for this matchup. Dallas comes into this game allowing a league-best 109.5 ppg and have been even better at home, putting up 111.8 ppg. With the Pistons having just played last night in a closely contested game at San Antonio and this being their 3rd game in the last 4 days, Detroit isn't going to have the energy to slow down this Dallas offensive attack.

The Pistons are going to have rely on their offense to keep them in this one and I expect them to have no problem providing enough here to push this game well over the mark. The Pistons are averaging 107.8 ppg over their 6-game winning streak and Dallas is giving up an average of 102.6 ppg at home.

It's also worth noting that these two teams played recently in Detroit and combined for 223 points in a 117-106 Mavs win back on Dec. 17. It was the third straight meeting in this series that saw at least 215 points.

OVER is 13-4 in Pistons last 17 games against a team that's won 70% or more of their games, 12-1 in their last 13 against the Western Conference's Southwest division, 28-9 in their last 37 when playing their 3rd game in 4 days and 23-8 in the Mavs last 31 after playing 3 straight on the road. These trends combine to form a 78% (76-22) system. Take the OVER!

4* Temple/Tulane AAC Vegas Insider on Temple -

The Owls have been one of the most improved teams in the country. Temple has opened up 11-4 after going a mere 9-22 all of last season. The Owls come into this game having won 5 straight, which includes an impressive 77-52 home win over then No. 10 Kansas and a 57-53 overtime win at Connecticut in their AAC opener. Temple backed up that big win over the Huskies with a 84-78 home win over UCF.

While Tulane comes in with a slightly better overall record at 11-3 and are also 2-0 inside conference play, I have not been as impressed with the Green Wave as I have the Owls. Tulane has played the easier schedule of the two, which I think is what has Temple showing some great value here as a small road favorite.

Tulane is just 19-43 (31%) ATS in their last 62 home games in the month of January and 4-13 (24%) ATS in their last 17 home games off a conference road win. Temple on the other hand is a perfect 7-0 (100%) ATS over the last 3 seasons in road games when they come in having won at least 5 of their last 7 games. These trends combine to form a 73% (63-23) system in favor of the Owls. Take Temple!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Fordham +

Fordham is showing some solid value here as a huge underdog against Rhode Island. Fordham has won two of the last three in the series and lost by 12-points last year at Rhode Island, despite shooting just 33.8% from the field.

This spread is clearly inflated due to the oddsmakers knowing the public wants nothing to do with Fordham, who is 0-4 on the road, and will be quick to back Rhode Island, who is 6-0 at home and coming in off 3 straight covers.

Rhode Island is just 25-44 (36%) ATS in their last 69 games when they come in having covered 3 of their last 4, 12-29 (29%) ATS in their last 41 as a home favorite of 10 or more points and are just 3-12 (20%) ATS in their last 15 home games after 4 or more consecutive SU wins. These trends combine to form a 68% (85-40) system. Take Fordham.

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Minnesota -

The Golden Gophers are being extremely undervalued here at home due to opening up Big Ten play with back-to-back losses, including an ugly 12-point loss last time out against Maryland. Ohio State on the other hand comes in ranked No. 22 in the country and are fresh off a 16-point home win over Illinois, but this is not the same caliber a Buckeyes team that we have seen in years past.

Ohio State has a strong record, but they have played a soft schedule and not played that great against the better teams they have faced. This will also be just the second true road game for the Buckeyes this season.

Minnesota has opened up a perfect 9-0 at home and there's no question that we are going to get the Golden Gophers' best effort here as they look to avoid an 0-3 start inside conference play. Keep in mind that last year, Minnesota knocked off Ohio State 63-53 at home as a 3-point dog and I'm expecting a similar result in this one.

Ohio State is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games when they come in having won 5/6 of their last 7 games, just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after covering the number last time out and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Minnesota is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after failing to cover 2 out of their last 3 and 33-17 ATS in their last 50 home games off a conference loss by 10 or more points.

Adding to this is a strong system backing a fade of Ohio State. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who have beat the spread by 18 or more combined points in their last 3 games against an opponent that has gone under the total by 18 or more combined points in their last 3 games are just 16-43 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Gophers. Take Minnesota!

3* Suns/Bucks NBATV ATS Main Event on Bucks +

The Milwaukee Bucks have been one of the surprise teams of 2014 and I think we are getting some great value here with the Bucks getting 4-points at home against the Suns. Milwaukee has already went on the road and beat Phoenix 96-94 earlier this season.

The Suns were a 5.5-point favorite in that game. If you factor in home court on that earlier spread, the Bucks should actually be a small home favorite here. This line is simply inflated due to the fact that the Suns have gone 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS over their last 10 games.

The key here is that this is a difficult spot for Phoenix, who laid everything on the line in their 125-109 win at home over the Raptors on Sunday. I look for them to suffer a big letdown here, having to travel to Milwaukee after a short two game homestand that followed a 4-game road trip. The Bucks on the other hand are going to come out motivated getting a rare chance to play in nationally televised game on NBATV.

Phoenix has historically struggled of 2 big wins, going just 46-76 ATS after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points. The Bucks on the other hand have thrived in games that are expected to be high-scoring. Milwaukee is 11-2 ATS this season when the total is set to 200 or more points. Bucks are also an impressive 17-7 ATS when listed as an underdog.

Adding to this is a strong system. Teams who have lead by 5 or more points at the half in each of their last 3 games against an opponent that scored 60+ in the first half of their last game are 39-14 ATS over the last 5 seasons (3-1 this season). That's a 74% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee!

4* Thunder/Warriors NBATV ATS No Brainer on Thunder +

The Thunder will be all business when they take the floor against the Warriors tonight. Oklahoma City has already dropped two games against Golden State this season, losing 86-91 at home and 109-114 on the road. Durant didn't play in the home loss and had to leave their loss at Golden State with an ankle injury after scoring 30 points in 19 minutes. The Thunder are 9-2 this season when Durant and Westbrook are both healthy and the last time Durant played a full game against the Warriors he put up a career-high 54 points.

Not only is Oklahoma City out for revenge, but this game means a lot more to the Thunder than it does the Warriors. Oklahoma City currently sits 10th in the Western Conference standings, 2 games back of Phoenix for the 8th spot. Golden State on the other hand has the best record in the league at 26-5.

Oklahoma City is 127-91 (58%) ATS since 1996 when revenging a loss to an opponent. The Thunder are also 30-15 ATS in their last 45 road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after failing to cover 3 of their last 4.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road teams who are a strong offensive team (98-102 ppg) against a poor defensive team (98-102 ppg), after allowing 100 or more in 3 straight games are 48-23 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 68% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

3* NBA Situational ATS Blowout on Trail Blazers -

I have no problem laying a big number on Portland at home against the Lakers tonight. Los Angeles will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and will also be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 nights. The key here is the Lakers will be without the services of both Kobe Bryant and Wesley Johnson. Bryant will be taking the night off to rest up for Wednesday's showdown against the Clippers, while Johnson is out after suffering a hip flexor in last night's game against the Pacers. Bryant leads the team with 35.1 min/game and Johnson is second at 29.3 min/game.

You also have to take into consideration that the Lakers are coming off a hard fought 88-87 win at home over the Pacers last night, which puts them in a huge letdown spot with that huge game against the Clippers on deck.

The most important aspect here is that Portland won't be overlooking the Lakers after losing 107-115 at home to the Hawks on Saturday. That was just third home loss the Trail Blazers have suffered all season. Most recently they followed up a 99-112 home loss to Memphis with a 14-point home win over the Timberwolves. Portland will be all business and I wouldn't be surprised if they won here by 20+ points.

Trail Blazers are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games against horrible teams that are getting outscored by 6+ points/game, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after covering 3 of their last 4 and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss. These trends combine to form a 79% (27-7) system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland!

5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Wizards +

The Wizards come into this contest off 3 straight road losses, while the Pelicans enter off a 28-point home win over the Rockets, which has created some big time value on Washington as a 3-point road dog tonight.

The Wizards 3-game road losing streak have come against the likes of the Mavericks, Thunder and Spurs. Prior to their skid, Washington had lost a total of 3 games over their previous 16 contests. I look for the Wizards to clamp down defensively and come away with a win in the final game of their 5-game west coast road trip.

As impressive as New Orleans' win over Houston was, the Pelicans have struggled to put together consecutive victories. New Orleans has followed up each of their previous 4 wins with a loss. The Pelicans are clearly one of the more improved teams this season, but they aren't quite there yet.

Wizards are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games after playing their previous game as an underdog, 17-6 ATS in their last 23 road games after allowing 100 or more points in each of their last two contests and a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 road games after scoring 55 points or more in the 1st half of their last game.

It's also worth noting that the Wizards held the Pelicans to just 80 points in a 83-80 home win back on Nov. 29. Favorites off a home win that are revenging a loss where they scored 85 points or less are just 30-60 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.

Adding to this is an even stronger system on Washington. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are a strong offensive team (98-102 ppg) against a poor defensive team (98-102 ppg) after allowing 100 or more in each of their last two games are 25-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 89% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!

4* NCAAB ATS Vegas Insider on Arkansas St +

The Red Wolves should not be an underdog here against the Warhawks. ULM's 6 wins this season have come against the likes of Champion Baptist, Louisiana Coll, Northwestern St, Central Baptist and LSU-Alexandria. In their last two games they lost at Samford 50-64 as a 5-point favorite and at Georgia State 45-65 as a 16.5-point dog.

The Red Wolves come in off a heartbreaking 73-74 home loss to Appalachian State as a 8-point favorite, which I believe has them undervalued here. Prior to that loss, Arkansas State had won 4 straight and covered each of their previous 5. The Red Wolves have covered 4 in a row on the road, including a 69-55 win at Mississippi State as a 12-point underdog.

ULM is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games with a line of +3 to -3, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 after back-to-back road losses by 10 or more points and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 home games after scoring 55 points or less in their last contest. These trends combine to form a 83% (33-7) system in favor of the Red Wolves. Take Arkansas State!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on Wofford -

Wofford is showing some great value here as a mere 1.5-point road favorite against Chattanooga. The Terriers are simply being undervalued due to having lost 3 straight against the spread. Wofford not only has the better record at 10-4, compared to Chattanooga at 9-6, but they have played a more difficult schedule up to this point.

The Mocs 9 wins have come against the likes of Robert Morris, Coastal Carolina, Montreat-Ander, Citadel, Northern Kentucky, UAB, Lipscomb and Furman, while 3 of Woffords 4 losses have come on the road against Stanford, West Virgina and Duke. What stands out here is the Terriers have an impressive 55-54 win at NC State, who is 11-4 overall and off to a 2-0 start in the ACC.

Wofford is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games against conference opponents, winning by an average of 8.4 ppg and are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after playing their last game as a favorite. The Terriers are also 11-3 ATS in their last 14 versus poor passing teams that are averaging 12 or fewer assists/game at least 15 games into the season. These trends combine to form a 79% (33-9) system in favor of the Terriers. Take Wofford!

3* NBA Situational ATS Blowout on Heat +

I was on the wrong side of Miami's embarrassing loss last night at Houston, but I'm coming right back with another play on the Heat as a home underdog. This line is a huge overreaction. If anything that blowout loss should light a fire under Miami and have them coming out extremely motivated tonight.

One of the reasons we see the Heat undervalued here at home is due to the fact that they will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set. However, all 5 of Miami's starters played less than 30 minutes last night, which is going to make it easy for them to bounce back with a strong effort against the Nets.

Another big key here is that the Heat have shown they matchup well with the Nets. Miami has went on the road and defeated Brooklyn twice already this season, winning 95-83 on Nov. 17 and 95-91 on Dec. 16.

Miami is 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following a SU loss by more than 10 points and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 versus the Atlantic. These trends combine to form a 81% (25-6) system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on UCLA +

The Bruins are showing some great value here as a double-digit underdog against the Utes. While UCLA is a mere 8-6 on the season, they have played a brutal schedule up to this point. Their 6 losses have come against the likes of Oklahoma, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Alabama and Colorado. Only 2 of those came by more than 10 points (UNC & Kentucky).

Utah is off to a strong 11-2 start but have not went up against the same caliber a schedule as the Bruins. The Utes do have a couple of solid wins. They knocked off Wichita State at home 69-68 and won at BYU 65-61, but they also lost at San Diego State 49-53 and at a neutral site versus Kansas 60-63. The rest of their scheduled has been soft and I just don't see Utah turning this into a blowout like this line would suggest. UCLA is more than capable of winning this game outright, which is why they are showing such great value here as a 12-point dog.

Adding to this is a strong system backing a fade of the Utes. Home favorites of 10 or more points who are a strong 3pt shooting team (36.5% or better) against an average 3pt shooting team (32%-36.5%), after two straight games where they made at least 55% of their shots, are just 15-42 ATS since 1997. That's a 74% system in favor of the Bruins. Take UCLA!

4* NBA Situational Vegas Insider on Heat +

The Heat are showing some great value here as a 7.5-point underdog against the Rockets. Miami is simply not getting the respect they deserve due to going 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games. With Chris Bosh back in the lineup, I look for the Heat to go on a run here to start the new year.

The big key here is that they are catching the Rockets in a great spot. Houston will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set after playing last night in New Orleans and this will be their 5th game in the last 7 days. Adding to this is the fact that the Rockets are in a bit of a slump, as they are just 3-5 SU and 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games. It's also worth noting that Miami comes in off a full two days of rest and will without a doubt be the fresher and more energized team in this one.

Miami is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, while Houston is 10-31 ATS in their last 41 home games when playing their 5th game in 7 days and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after playing their last game against a division opponent.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have shot 47% or better from the field in each of their last 3 games are 77-42 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Jazz +

Even though the Jazz are in a difficult spot here, playing their 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road, I think we are getting some great value with Utah at basically a pick'em against the Timberwolves. Minnesota is one of the worst teams in the league and come in having lost 10 straight and are 1-16 in their last 17 overall.

Utah gave the Hawks all they could handle in a 92-98 home loss last night, continuing their recent strong play. Even with that defeat, the Jazz are 5-3 in their last 8 games, which includes road wins over the Heat, Magic and Grizzlies. They also just recently beat Minnesota at home 100-94 back on Dec. 30 and that was with the Timberwolves shooting 46.3% from the field and 47.1% from long distance. Minnesota is only hitting on 43.7% of their attempts on the season and are shooting just 30.0% from behind the 3-point line at home.

Utah is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games when they come in having lost 2 out of their last 3 games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a SU loss. Minnesota is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a losing road record. These trends combine to form a 79% (38-10) system in favor of the Jazz. Take Utah!

5* Richmond/Davidson A-10 Game of the Month on Richmond +

Davidson comes in having covered 4 straight, while Richmond has lost 7 straight against the spread and enter off back-to-back losses at home to Wake Forest and Northeastern. This has forced oddsmakers to inflate the line here on the Wildcats, creating some big time value on the Spiders.

Richmond's only loss all season by more than 6-points came on the road against NC State, who has opened up the season 10-4. The Spiders lost at Old Dominion by just 6-points, at UNI by just 5-points and their last two losses to Wake Forest and Northeastern at home came by a combined 3-points.

While Davidson's only two losses have come against ranked opponents in North Carolina and Virginia, the rest of their schedule has been far from challenging and I wouldn't be shocked at all if Richmond won this game outright. The Wildcats are just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 home games after covering 4 of their last 5, while the Spiders are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games against explosive offensive teams that are averaging 84+ points/game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of Davidson. Home favorites that have won 80% or more of their games that are coming in off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog are just 18-43 ATS since 1997. That's a 71% system in favor of the Spiders. Take Richmond!

4* Georgia Tech/Notre Dame ACC Game of the Week on Georgia Tech +

We are getting some great value here with Georgia Tech, as Notre Dame is being overvalued here due to being 13-1 and ranked No. 14 in the country. What a lot of people overlook with the Fighting Irish is that they have played a cupcake schedule and shouldn't be laying this many points against a quality Yellow Jackets squad.

Georgia Tech is 9-3 with their three losses all coming by 6-points or less. The Yellow Jackets should have no problem keeping this one within double-digits. Last year they lost by just 3-points at Notre Dame (62-65) and knocked off the Irish at home 74-69. Another big key here is that it's going to be difficult for Notre Dame to give Georgia Tech their full attention, as they have a huge road game on deck against North Carolina Monday on ESPN.

Notre Dame is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games when playing against a team with a winning record, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games when listed as a favorite of 6.5 to 12 points and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games when they come in having covered 3 out of their last 4. These trends combine to form a dynamite 89% (24-3) system in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Take Georgia Tech!

3* NCAAB Early Bird Undervalued Underdog on Kansas State +

The Wildcats are showing some great value here against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State is not nearly as good as their 10-2 record would indicate, as they have benefited from an early non-conference schedule. We are starting to see evidence of that by their last two games, which saw them lose at home to Maryland 64-73 as a 9-point favorite and barely escape with a 74-72 win over Missouri on a neutral court as a 10-point favorite.

Another big reason for the value here is that Kansas State comes in off a 46-50 home loss to Georgia as a 3.5-point favorite, which followed a shocking 56-58 home loss to Texas Southern. The Wildcats have now lost 4 games by 6-points or less, including a 68-72 defeat to Arizona and 64-65 loss at Tennessee. Kansas State could very easily be sitting at 11-1 instead of 7-5.

One other thing I like here is that main reason the Wildcats fell at home to Detroit is they shot just 31.9% from the field. It was the 4th time this season that Kansas State shot 35% or worse. The key here is that the Wildcats have followed up each of their previous 3 poor shooting performances by hitting at least 53% from the field.

Oklahoma State is just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off two or more consecutive games that went OVER the total, 9-18 ATS in their last 27 versus teams that are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game and 8-17 ATS teams who are shooting 45% or better from the field on the season. Kansas State is a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games against a team that's won 80% or more of their games. These trends combine to form a 75% (54-18) system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Kansas State!

5* NBA No Limit ATS Game of the Month on Grizzlies -

Memphis is showing some great value here as a mere 4.5-point road favorite against the Lakers. The Grizzlies have answered their 4-game losing streak with a 103-95 win at Miami and a 95-87 home victory against the Spurs and I look for them to come out motivated off a 2-day break.

While they will likely be without Zach Randolph once again, his absence isn't going to hurt them against a Lakers team that doesn't play defense and is giving up 55 rebounds/game. I also like the fact that we are catching the Lakers off back-to-back games where they shot better than 50% from the field and will be facing one of the top defensive teams in the league. Prior to that the Lakers had gone 14 straight games without a single game where they 50% or better.

Lakers are just 4-11 at home this year and Memphis is 10-4 SU on the road and 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team that's won less than 40% of their home games.  The Grizzlies have also thrived on the road when they come in well rested. Memphis is 22-8 ATS over the last 3 seasons in road games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Lakers. Home underdogs who are a terrible defensive team that is allowing 103+ points/game, after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are just 8-28 ATS since 1996. That's a 78% system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Jazz +

I think the is a great spot to fade the Hawks on the road against a Utah team that is playing some of their best basketball of the season. The Jazz come in having won 5 of their last 7 and are a strong 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games.

The public has caught on to the Hawks and I believe we getting some great value here on Utah. Atlanta is going to have a tough time giving the Jazz their full attention. The Hawks are coming off a big home win against the Cavaliers and have two huge road games on deck against the Trail Blazers (Sat.) and Clippers (Mon.).

The fact that Atlanta comes in off 2 days rest and are playing just their 4th game in the last 10 days, might seem like a good reason to back the Hawks, but this team has not performed well in this spot. Atlanta is just 8-28 ATS in their last 35 games when playing with 2 days rest and are a mere 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games when playing just their 4th or less game in the last 10 days. Adding to this is the fact that the Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 versus the Eastern Conference. These trends combine to form a 79% (52-14) system in favor of the Jazz. Take Utah!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +

We are getting some great value here with Wisconsin-Milwaukee catching double-digits. While the Panthers have yet to win on the road, this is too many points for a Cleveland State team that is just 6-8 on the season to be laying.

Just in the last month we have seen the Vikings lose at home to a couple of average teams in Toledo and Eastern Illinois, plus they needed overtime to get by a San Francisco team that isn't very good. Cleveland State is also in a big letdown spot here coming off a big road game against VCU and going up against a team they have had no trouble getting past in recent meetings.

One of the big reasons we are getting such great value here with the Panthers is due to how they come into this game. WI-Milwaukee has lost 3 straight with their last two coming by 30-points at Arkansas and 24 at South Dakota. The Panthers have shot a miserable 32.8% from the field during this 3-game stretch and that kind of poor shooting doesn't tend to last long. Look for the Panthers to come out extremely motivated and while they likely won't win this one outright, they should be able to keep it close enough to cover.

WI-Milwaukee is 46-24 ATS in their last 70 off a SU loss by 15 points or more and 32-17 ATS in their last 49 after 3 or more consecutive losses. Panthers are also 68-46 ATS in their last 114 road games against teams that are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road underdogs of 10 or more points who have failed to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, that have won just 20% to 40% of their games and are going up against a team with a losing record are 91-49 ATS since 1997. That's a 65% system in favor of the Panthers. Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee!

3* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on San Diego +

We are getting some great value here backing the Toreros as a underdog against the Dons. While both teams come in with identical records, San Diego has played the much tougher schedule and is getting undervalued here after opening conference play with back-to-back home losses to Portland and No. 7 Gonzaga. That's going to have the Toreros coming out extremely motivated and I look for them to come away with the outright win.

Another thing that I like with San Diego is that they are coming off two dreadful shooting performances. The Toreros shot just 37.1% from the field against Portland and a mere 26.8% against Gonzaga, yet they only loss by 3-points to Portland and 12-points to Gonzaga. Look for San Diego to get a big boost offensively in this one, as San Francisco has allowed 48.1% shooting to Pacific and 51.9% shooting to St. Mary's in their two conference games.

San Diego is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games after 1 or more consecutive losses, 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games after playing their last contest as an underdog and a perfect 7-0 ATS after shooting 28% or worse in their last game. These trends combine to form a 79% (34-9) system in favor of the Toreros. Take San Diego!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Northern Iowa -

This might seem like an evenly matched game based on these two teams records going into the conference opener, but UNI has played the much tougher schedule and I look for the Panther to have no problem covering this 3.5-point spread.

Northern Iowa's only loss on the season is a 87-93 double-overtime defeat at VCU. The Panthers have a 19-point win over Northwestern and 12-point win over and Iowa team that has upset UNC and Ohio State. Evansville's only two wins against teams that currently have a winning record are Wright State (8-6) and Belmont (8-5).

One of the big things that I like here is that we can expect to get Northern Iowa's best effort here in their conference opener, which should lead to an easy win. In the two matchups between these two teams last year, the Panthers won 80-53 at Evansville and 95-81 at home. UNI is a better team in 2014 and I look for them to win here by double-digits rather easily.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Purple Aces. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off 3 or more consecutive home wins are just 7-28 ATS since 1997 in the month of January. That's a 80% system in favor of the Panthers. Take UNI!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Wyoming -

Wyoming has one of the best homecourt advantages in the nation and we are getting some great value here with the Cowboys laying just 6-points at home against the Rebels. Wyoming is 11-2 on the season with a perfect 10-0 record at home. Their only two losses have come on the road against quality opponents in SMU and California. In the Cowboys 10 home wins, 8 have come by at least 9 points, including a 56-33 blowout win over Colorado as a 2-point underdog.

The Rebels have played just one true road game up to this point in the season and they got embarrassed 55-77 at Arizona State as a mere 7-point underdog. I still think we are seeing UNLV overvalued from that big win at home over Arizona, which they followed up with a cover against an awful Southern Utah team. With a huge game at Kansas on deck this weekend, this is the perfect letdown spot for the Rebels.

UNLV is just 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games after covering 2 of their last 3, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 versus a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs the MWC. Wyoming is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against team that are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game and 41-21 in their last 62 home games off a win by 10 or more points. These trends combine to form a 72% (80-31) system in favor of the Cowboys. Take Wyoming!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Bucks +

The Cavaliers are a complete mess right now and I look for their struggles to continue tonight against the Bucks. I think there's a lot to all the rumors surrounding the players not on the same page as head coach David Blatt and I look for things to get worse before they get better. 

Cleveland has lost 3 of their last 4 and could be without two of their best players in LeBron James and Kevin Love (both questionable). The Cavaliers are also in a difficult spot, as they just played last night in a big game against the Hawks. Not only will they be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 3rd game in the last 4 days and 5th in the last 7.

The Bucks have been one of the big surprises early, as Jason Kidd has his new team playing better than anyone anticipated. Milwaukee comes in off a 104-94 win at Charlotte and are 5-4 over their last 9 with their largest defeat during this stretch coming by 7-points. This will be just the 2nd game in the last 4 days for the Bucks and I look for them to control the tempo and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright.

We also have a strong system backing a play on the Bucks. Road teams who have gone under the total by 36 or more combined points in their last 5 games, with a winning percentage of 45% to 55% are 94-48 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee!

4* NBA Heavy Hitter on Spurs -

I think this is a great spot to back the Spurs at home against the Pelicans. While Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard are both listed as questionable, you never know what Popovich has up his sleeve. I wouldn't be shocked if both played tonight, especially with the way this line has jumped, but even if they don't I like San Antonio to win this game. The Spurs will be playing with double-revenge against the Pelicans, who they just recently lost to in New Orleans 90-97 on Dec. 26.

Keep in mind that prior to losing the last two against the Pelicans, San Antonio had won 18 of 21 over New Orleans and 22 of 25 at home. While the Spurs lost last night in Memphis, they won their previous home game against Houston 110-106.

What a lot of people are overlooking with the Spurs struggles is that they have gone through an absolute brutal stretch of games that has seen them face the Grizzlies, Blazers, Mavericks, Clippers, Thunder, Pelicans, Rockets and Grizzlies in that exact order. While they lost to New Orleans on the road, the Pelicans are just 6-11 away from home and are in a tough spot on the road here with this being the 2nd game of a back-to-back set.

The Spurs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team that's won 40% or less of their road games. Take the San Antonio!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Southern Illinois -

We are getting some great value here with the Salukis laying just 3-points in their conference home opener against Missouri State. Southern Illinois had won 7 of 8 before losing their last two at home leading up to their Christmas break. Head coach Barry Hinson has had his players full attention during their 8 day layoff and I look for them to take it to the Bears, who are just 2-5 away from home.

Southern Illinois is only giving up 59.3 ppg at home and I look for their defense to be the difference in this one. Missouri State doesn't exactly come in shooting with confidence. The Bears have connected on just 33.6% of their attempts over their last two games at home and are shooting just 41.6% from the field on the road this season. 

Missouri State is just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after scoring 30 points or less in the 1st half of each of their last two games and are just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games after committing 8 or less turnovers in their last contest. These two trends combine to form a strong 76% (32-10) system in favor of the Salukis. Take Southern Illinois!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Pelicans -

New Orleans is showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Suns. The Pelicans are a solid 9-4 at home and will be extremely motivated coming off a loss to the Bulls. New Orleans hasn't lost consecutive games since early December.

Phoenix is simply being overvalued here after due their 6-game winning streak that has saw them go a perfect 6-0 ATS. The key is that this is a tough spot for the Suns, who will be playing their 3rd straight road game and their 6th road game in their last 7 games overall. With the Pelicans coming into this game off a full 2-days of rest, they should have no problem coming away with a win against what has to be a tired Suns roster.

New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a winning record and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs a team with a winning road record.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of Phoenix. Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 that are averaging 102+ ppg and have gone over the total in 2 or more consecutive games are just 12-34 ATS over the last 5 seasons when facing a poor defensive team that is giving up 98-102 ppg. That's a 74% system in favor of the Pelicans. Take New Orleans!

5* NBA Situational Game of the Month on Pistons -

The Pistons are a perfect 2-0 since getting rid of Josh Smith and have arguably put together their two best performances in these victories. Detroit won 119-109 at home against the Pacers last Friday and followed it up with a shocking 103-80 blowout win on the road against the Cavaliers. The Pistons are now just 6 games out of playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and I look for them carry over that momentum with another easy win tonight against the Magic.

While Orlando comes in off two straight wins as well, this is a horrible spot for the Magic. Orlando played last night in Miami. Not only will they been in a difficult back-to-back spot, but they find themselves playing their 4th game in the last 5 days. I just don't see the Magic being able to keep pace with Detroit in this one, who will be out for revenge after losing 93-107 at home to Orlando back on Nov. 17.

Detroit is 27-12 ATS in their last 39 road games when they come in having lost at least 15 of their last 20 games overall and 38-19 ATS in their last 57 road games off 2 straight wins by 10 or more points.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing the Pistons. Road teams that are revenging a loss to an opponent where they were listed as the favorite and are coming off a win by 10 or more over a division rival are 27-8 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Pistons. Take Detroit!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Ohio -

This is a complete mismatch in talent and I look for Ohio to have to no problem winning at home by double-digits over the Seahawks. Keep in mind the last time these two teams met back in 2012, the Bobcats cruised to a 85-47 home win. UNC-Wilmington has gone just 2-5 on the road this year and just recently lost at Campbell 63-69 and Minnesota 82-108.

Ohio is simply being undervalued here based on the fact that they have gone just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games with a spread listed. The Seahawks are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games when listed as an underdog of 6.5 to 9 points, 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 off a SU loss and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a losing record. It's also worth noting that Ohio is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 versus the CAA. These trends combine to form a 76% (38-12) system in favor of the Bobcats. Take Ohio!

4* Maryland/Michigan St Big Ten Game of the Month on Michigan St -

While it hasn't been a typical start to the year for the Spartans, this is still one of the top teams in the Big Ten and I look for them to come out and make a statement against what I feel is a slightly overrated Maryland squad. The Terrapins do have a nice win over Iowa State and their only loss was against undefeated Virginia, but most of their scheduled hasn't been challenging.

It's not very often you will get the Spartans laying this small a number on their home floor and it's usually a good idea to jump on the opportunity when it presents itself. Michigan State is 6-1 ATS at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by 22.9 ppg.

One of the reasons we are getting value here with the Spartans is they just recently lost at home to Texas Southern 64-71 as a 24.5-point favorite. The thing you have to keep in mind is they were without one of their best players in Branden Dawson, who will be back in the lineup tonight. I also think that game served as a wake-up call for this team more than anything.

Michigan State was able to bounce back from that ugly loss with a 82-56 home win over the Citadel. The Spartans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 off a home win by 10 or more points, 16-6 ATS in their last 22 vs a strong 3-pt shooting team that is making 37% or more of their attempts and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a win by 20+ points. Maryland is just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 when they come in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 65 or less in each of their last 2 games. These trends combine to form a 78% (57-16)  system in favor of the Spartans. Take Michigan State!

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Wizards +

This is a great spot to back Washington as a 4-point dog against the Rockets. Houston is still learning to adjust to the addition of Josh Smith and it's going to take some time before they get it figured out.

This is also a tough scheduling spot for the Rockets. Houston is coming off two huge road games against Memphis and San Antonio and that game against the Spurs was last night, putting them in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and 3rd in 4 days. Washington on the other hand will be playing on a full days rest and just their 2nd game in the last 4 days, which should give them enough of an advantage to win this game outright. It's also worth noting that Houston has actually been better on the road than they have at home. The Rockets are 11-3 on the road, compared to just 10-5 at home.

Washington comes in off two blowout wins over the Knicks (102-91) and Celtics (101-88) and are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last 9 road games after scoring 55+ points in the 1st half of their last two games. Wizards are also 22-9 ATS in their last 31 road games after playing their last game at home and 13-3 in their last 16 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. These trends combine to form a 79% (44-12) system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Toledo +

I think we are catching some great value here with Toledo. The Rockets are clearly going to be motivated for a game against Duke, while the Blue Devils could struggle to play up to their potential in what will be their first game following an 11-day break and just their third game since Dec. 3.

In Duke's last two home games they only beat Army by 20 as a 27.5-point favorite and Elon by just 13 as a 32.5-point favorite. The books are clearly inflating the Blue Devils' lines, knowing the public is going to back this team regardless of the spread.

Toledo has shown they can hang against some quality opponents. The Rockets lost by just 10-points on the road against then No. 15 VCU and three days later only lost by 12-points at Oregon. Toledo will come in playing with a lot of confidence, as they have won 5 straight since a couple of heartbreaking losses to Detroit (79-82) and Oakland (79-81).

It's also worth noting that Toledo's last win game came on the road against McNeese St. The Rockets are a strong 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games off a road win. Duke on the other hand is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a losing road record. These trends combine to form a 80% (28-7) system in favor of the Rockets. Take Toledo!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on Monmouth -

The fact that Monmouth is favored here is a strong indicator that the Hawks are the better team, as the public is going to be all over the more well-known team in Rutgers, especially considering the Scarlet Knights are 7-5 on the season and Monmouth is just 5-6. The Hawks are also coming in off a 25-point home loss to St Francis-NY, while the Scarlet Knights are off a 25-point win over Sacred Heart.

One of the big keys here is that this is a tough spot for Rutgers, who are going to struggle to give Monmouth their full attention with their inaugural Big Ten opener at home against Northwestern on deck Wednesday. The Scarlet Knights are also a miserable 8-24 ATS in their last 32 off a game where they covered the spread, while Monmouth is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at home, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Favorites that returned all 5 starters from the previous season, who are coming off a game where they scored 60 or less points, are 161-97 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 62% system in favor of the Hawks. Take Monmouth!

5* NBA Southeast Division Total of the Year on Magic/Hornets OVER

We are getting some exceptional value here due to both these teams coming off low-scoring games last night. Charlotte connected on a franchise worst 28.7% of their field goal attempts in a 77-98 loss at Oklahoma City, while the Magic managed just 89 points in a 89-98 defeat at home to the Cavaliers.

Keep in mind that these two teams played recently in Charlotte back on Nov. 21. The total for that game was just 191 points and they combined to score 205. It was the 3rd time in the last 4 meetings these teams combined for at least 205 points. I look for this trend to continue when these two division rivals square off tonight.

Another big key here is that both of teams are playing on little rest, which I believe will lead to little to no intensity on the defensive end. Orlando will be playing in their 3rd game in 4 nights and 5th in 9 nights, while the Hornets will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 6th in 9 days.

OVER is 6-1 in Magic's last 7 games against a team with a losing record and 8-3 in the Hornets last 11 games against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 8-3 in Charlotte's last 11 at home and 14-5 in their last 19 off a loss by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a 75% (36-12) system backing this one to go above the mark. Take the OVER!

3* Kentucky/Louisville NCAAB Main Event on Louisville +

Kentucky is being overvalued here in a game that I think they are going to struggle to win. This will be the Wildcats first true road game of the season and only their third game away from home overall. This may not seem for a big deal with the way Kentucky has been rolling this year, but I'll gladly take 6-points with this Louisville team at home.

One of the big reasons that Kentucky has been so dominant to open the season is largely due to the fact that they have been bigger and better than their opponents. Few teams can match up with their 5 plays who are all 6'9 or taller, but the Cardinals are one team that can. Louisville's 4 players at 6'8 or taller and a special talent in junior forward Montrezl Harrell. Another big key here is Harell and the Cardinals won't be intimidated by the Wildcats.

Kentucky is just 6-16 ATS in their 22 road games over the last 3 seasons and have actually lost these games by an average score of 68.8 to 70.7. Wildcats are also just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games off a blowout win by 20 or more points and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games following 3 or more straight home games. These trends combine to form a 74% (34-12) system in favor of the Cardinals. Take Louisville!

3* Rockets/Grizzlies NBA ATS Main Event on Grizzlies -

The Grizzlies are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Rockets. Memphis is going to come out extremely motivated after losing 3 straight, which included an ugly 91-97 home loss to the Jazz as an 8-point favorite on Monday. The Grizzlies have been off since that game, giving them a full 3 days of rest going into this matchup. I think that break is exactly what this team needed to get back on track.

Houston just signed Josh Smith, who was released by the Pistons on Monday. That move is perceived to make the Rockets a lot better and I think it has them overvalued here. It's not likely Smith will be available tonight and anytime a team adds a player this late into the season it's going to have a negative impact before a positive one. Not only does it mess with the chemistry of a team, but some players don't handle the fact that they will be getting reduced minutes.

Either way, I look for the Rockets to have a difficult time coming away with a win against the Grizzlies. Even with their recent struggles, Memphis is a dominant 12-3 at home. They already defeated Houston at home 119-93 back on Nov. 17, which was their second straight home win over the Rockets by at least 17 points.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 off an upset loss as a favorite in a game involving two strong teams (60% to 75%) are 56-22 ATS since 1996. That's a 72% system in favor of the Grizzlies. Take Memphis!

5* NBA Game of the Month on Hornets +

This is a great spot to fade the Thunder at home against the surging Hornets. Oklahoma City is in a huge letdown spot after laying it all on the line in yesterday's 114-106 win at San Antonio. I just don't see the Thunder having enough left in the tank to blowout Charlotte at home. Oklahoma City isn't just playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 6th game in the last 9 days. The Thunder are also still without last year's MVP Durant.

The Hornets have came to life with Lance Stephenson sidelined, going 4-0 without the prized free agent signing. I look for the Hornets to continue their strong play on the road against Oklahoma City, as they come in off a full 2 days of rest. Dating back to last season, Charlotte is an impressive 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games games in the month of December. Th Hornets are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on 2 days rest and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Western Conference.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of the Thunder. Home favorites that have allowed 100 or more points in each of their last 4 games, against an opponent that has scored 100 or more in their last 4 games are just 19-49 ATS since 1996. That's a 72% system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte!

4* Lakers/Bulls Over/Under Total No Brainer on UNDER

These Christmas Day games have a strong history of going UNDER the total and I think we are getting some great value here in tonight's showdown between the Bulls/Lakers. Chicago has turned up the defensive intensity of late. They have allowed 5 of their last 6 opponents under 100-points and I look for them to have no problem keeping this Lakers team in check.

The key here is that with this being such a big game, I look for the Lakers to also come out with their best defensive efforts of the season. Each of the last 9 meetings in this series have finished with fewer points than the total set and over the last 3 seasons these two teams have averaged a combined score of just 190 points. 

UNDER is 50-30 (63%) in Chicago's last 80 games against horrible teams that are getting outscored by 6+ points/game. UNDER is also 6-1 in Lakers last 7 against a team with a winning record. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. UNDER is 100-54 since 1996 when you have a total set at 200 or more points where the road team comes in having covered 4 of their last 5 games and are only winning 25% to 40% of their games. That's a 65% long-term system. Take the UNDER!

3* Wizards/Knicks Early Bird Total Annihilator on UNDER

These two teams combined for just 181 points in their earlier matchup this season back on Nov. 4. I'm expecting another low-scoring battle between these two in the Christmas Day opener. NBA players are use to playing this early in the morning and I look for it to lead to poor shooting and a slower pace than what we would typically see. Last year the Bulls/Nets combined for 173 points in the opener on Christmas Day. In 2012, the Celtics and Nets only managed to combine for 169. 

The other key here is that I'm expecting both teams to come out with some energy defensively. The Wizards are going to be motivated here to get a win after losing each of their last two at home. The Knicks on the other hand will be trying to avoid losing a franchise worst 8th straight game at home in what will be their 50th appearance on Christmas. 

UNDER is 12-4 in Washington's last 16 games against poor defensive teams that are allowing 99+ points/game and 8-1 in their last 9 against strong 3-point shooting teams that are making 36% or more from the outside. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Knicks last 9 home games when listed as an underdog. These trends combine to form a 82% (28-6) system. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month on Suns/Mavs OVER

I believe we are catching some great value here on the OVER due to the Mavericks struggles offensively in their first two games since acquiring Rajon Rondo. Dallas was able to overcome a slow start last night against the Hawks with a 64 point second half and I look for them to carry over that momentum offensively to tonight's matchup against the Suns. Phoenix is also going to be playing with a lot of confidence offensively, as they just swept a 3-game road trip, where they averaged 104.7 ppg.

The big key here is that both of these teams aren't very strong defensively. The Mavericks come in allowing 102.5 ppg and the Suns are even worse at 103.1 ppg. Both of these offenses like to push the pace and I believe it's going to result in this one flying over the total of 213.5.

OVER is 10-1 in Mavericks last 11 games when their starters combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day, 8-2 in their last 10 after scoring 100 or more points in their last game and 4-0 in their last 4 when playing with no rest. OVER is also 4-1 in Suns last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 9-3 in their last 12 versus the Western Conference.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The OVER is 34-9 since 1996 when you have a total of 210 or more points with the home team coming off a win by 10 or more points against an opponent that is off a close loss by 3-points or less. That's a 79% system backing this one to go over the mark. Take the OVER!

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Bucks -

While the Hornets seem to have found new life following the injury to Lance Stephenson, as they come in having won 3 straight by an average 21.4 ppg, this is not a good spot for Charlotte. Not only will the Hornets be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days. I just don't see Charlotte having the injury on the road to keep this one competitive against a vastly improved Milwaukee team.

With a win over the Hornets, the Bucks can match last year's win total of 15. The big key here is that while Charlotte is in a brutal scheduling spot, Milwaukee comes in off a full 2 days of rest and will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 5 days. It's also worth noting that the Bucks could be getting a boost here with the return of power forward Ersan Ilyasova, who has missed the last 9 games. Getting back Ilyasova is huge for a Bucks team that lost rookie Jabari Parker for the rest of the season and is also without reserve power forward John Henson.

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Hornets. Underdogs who have beat the spread by more than 24 points in their last game, who have won just 25% to 40% of their games on the season are a mere 4-26 ATS over the last 5 years. That's a 87% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Georgia Tech +

The Yellow Jackets are showing some decent value here as a 4-point underdog against the Flyers. Dayton just recently suspended both starting center Devon Scott and backup center Jalen Robinson. Those losses leave the Flyers without any size down low. In fact, Dayton's tallest active player now is just 6'6. Three of Georgia Tech's top four scorers are all 6'8 or taller and I look for the Yellow Jackets to take advantage of their big size advantage with a lot of easy baskets in the paint and a huge edge on the boards. Even prior to the losses of Scott and Robinson, this Dayton team was overvalued and I think it's going to take a couple games before the oddsmakers adjust accordingly.

Yellow Jackets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games when listed as an underdog of 6 points or less, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win.

Underdogs who are an average offensive team (67-74 ppg) against a poor offensive team (63-67 ppg) that have allowed 65 points or less in 4 straight games are 50-21 ATS since 1997. That's a 70% system in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Take Georgia Tech!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Marshall +

This may seem like an evenly matched game and one that Nevada could win with it being on their home floor, but the Wolf Pack should not be favored against Marshall, especially not by this many points. Nevada has lost 8 straight games with their only two wins coming against Cal Poly and Adams State. The Wolf Pack just recently lost at home to Cal State-Fullerton 55-65 as a 5-points favorite.

While Marshall is just 1-7 in their last 8 games, they have played a much more difficult schedule and nearly pulled off a huge upset last week. The Thundering Herd lost 66-69 as a 18-point underdog to West Virginia on a neutral site. Marshall also lost by just 4-points to Penn State as a 6.5-point dog. I just don't see Nevada being able to score enough to get the win, as the Wolf Pack are only averaging 58.7 ppg, while Marshall is putting up 69.4 ppg.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of Nevada. Home favorites that have failed to cover the spread in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, who have won 20% or less of their games and are playing an opponent with a losing record are just 3-26 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a dynamite 90% system in favor of the Thundering Herd. Take Marshall!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Cal +

Cal should not be getting this many points at home against the Badgers. As good as Wisconsin is, this will be their first true road game outside of their home state, as their two true road games to this point have come against Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Marquette.

This is also a difficult spot for the Badgers to be 100% focused, as they haven't played in 8 days. Too much rest can be a bad thing and I look for the Badgers to come out flat here in a hostile environment. Keep in mind that each of the last 2 top 10 teams to visit Haas Pavilion have left with a loss. The most recent being No. 1 Arizona back in February last year.

The other big key here is that the Golden Bears are a talented team. Cal has an identical 10-1 record as the Badgers with their only loss coming against Texas, who I would rank ahead of Wisconsin. The Longhorns only defeat is a 8-point loss at Kentucky. The Golden Bears also have an impressive 14-point win over Syracuse on their resume.

Cal is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games, 5-1-2 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a winning % above .600, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a road winning % above .600. These trends combine to form a 79% (19-5) system in favor of the Golden Bears. Take Cal!

4* NBA ATS No Brainer on Rockets -

Houston has had this game circled since the schedule was released. Portland stunned the Rockets in Game 6 of last years first-round playoff matchup, as Damian Lillard hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer. I believe it's a big reason why they have struggled in their two games leading up to this contest, as they have had their eyes set on this matchup.

The Rockets are catching the Trail Blazers in a great spot as well. This will be Portland's third straight road game in a span of just four days. Houston on the other hand will be playing their third straight home game and just their second game in the last 4 days.

Portland is just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 110 or more in each of their last 2 games and 4-10 in their last 14 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Houston is 19-9 ATS in their last 28 home games against a team with a winning record and 10-4 in their last 14 versus a team that's won more than 60% of their games. These trends combine to form a 71% (54-22) system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Illinois-Chicago +

Northwestern is getting way too much respect at home against UIC this afternoon. The Wildcats are still without last year's leading scorer JerShon Cobb and are just 2-4 over their last 6 games following a perfect 5-0 start. The Flames are definitely capable of keeping this one within single-digits. UIC has actually won 4 of the last 5 in the series, including a 50-44 victory in their last visit to Northwestern back in 2012, a game in which they were listed as a 11-point underdog.

One of the key things here is that this is a much bigger game to UIC than it is Northwestern, plus with this game being played right around Christmas, there doesn't figure to be the same kind of energy inside Welsh-Ryan Arena than you would normally expect to see for a Wildcats home game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play telling us to fade Northwestern. Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points who are off a win by 6-points or less against an opponent that is off a loss by 15 or more points are just 74-121 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 62% system in favor of the Flames. Take UIC!

4* NBA Total Dominator on Heat/Celtics UNDER

I think the Celtics are going to struggle on offense without Rajon Rondo so this total is a little too high. The Celtics are also coming off back to back performances of shooting over 55% from the floor, and that’s a trend that isn’t going to hold but probably helped bump this total up a little bit.  Plus Boston fits a great system where road teams with a total above 200 coming off 3 straight blowout wins of 15+ points are 27-6 (82%) for the UNDER since 1996.  

Miami has not played with too many totals above 200 this year and they have still trended pretty hard towards the UNDER, going below the number in six of their last 9 despite frequently seeing over/unders 10 points lower than this one.  Miami fits a system that says to take the UNDER when a team has allowed 105 or more in two straight games and they are playing a team off a 15+ point blowout win.  The UNDER is 93-57 (62%) in those situations the last five years.

No Bosh for Miami and no Rando for the Celtics means less offense for both teams.  

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Miami Heat -

I’ll fade the Boston Celtics today as they play their second game without Rajon Rondo. Normally teams step up the first game a star goes down or is traded away and that was the case with Boston on Friday night as they put up 114 points and beat the lowly Wolves by 16 points.  They have been covering machines, beating the number 8 times in their last 10 games and one of those losses was by a half point.

Now they have to travel to Miami to take on a hungry Heat team.  I know Miami will be without Chris Bosh, but this will be his fifth game in a row that he’s missed so they are starting to get used to being without their big man.  Last time out they took the Wizards to the wire.

I think we are getting some value here due to Miami’s problems at home, but five of their last six losses in Miami have come against teams like the Clippers, Warriors, Hawks, Bulls, and Wizards, which are teams above the Celtics class.  

Boston is just 2-11 ATS on the road after a double digit win the last three seasons and 16-32 ATS after covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread since 1996. These trends combine to form a 70% (43-18) system favoring the Heat. Take Miami!

5* NBA Over/Under Total of the Month on Sixers/Magic UNDER

Teams tend to not shoot quite as well on Sundays as they do the rest of the week.  This normally means less scoring for good shooting teams and bad offensive rebounding teams (since they won’t get many second chance points.)  Today we have both teams fitting the bill which really has me liking the UNDER here.

The Magic are a good 3-point shooting team that hits 37.7% of their 3 point attempts on the year.  However, when the total is between 190-199.5 on Sundays a team is making 36% or more of their 3-point attempts, the UNDER is 119-68 (63.6%) the last five seasons.

Neither team hits the glass very well.  Orlando is averaging only 9 offensive rebounds per game against teams that normally give up 11.  Philadelphia is getting out-rebounded by five boards per game.  Both of these stats fit up favorable situations for our under.

On Sundays when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points and a team is averaging less than 11 rebounds per game, the UNDER is 348-230 (60.2%) since 1996.  In the same situation of games on Sundays and totals in the 190s with teams getting out rebounded by 5+ boards per game, the UNDER is 33-10 (76.7%) since 1996.  Take the UNDER here today.

4* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Bucks +

Milwaukee has been playing better basketball as of late, covering four straight and winning three of their last four. They also beat the Clippers 111-106 on their home floor a week ago so you know they have the confidence they can hang with LA.

The Clippers on the other hand are coming off a tough loss in Denver last night, their third in five games. They are in a tough spot since they are flying back home after a late game last night in which Paul played 39 minutes, Griffin 41, and Jordan 42.5. I don’t think they are going to have their ‘A’ game for this one which means take the double digits.

Adding to this is a strong system backing the Bucks. Home teams playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set that are revenging a loss where the opponent scored 110 or more points are just 47-84 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 64% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee!

4* NBA Situational ATS Dominator on Pacers +

Denver has had a tough run lately with 7 losses in their last 9 games, but they are coming off a big win against a conference rival in the Clippers last night.  That got the monkey off of their back and I think they might be due for a letdown with the Pacers coming into town.  

Lawson Affalo and Chandler all logged over 32 minutes in the win and they were giving max effort the entire time as the second half and especially the fourth quarter was back and forth before the Nuggets pulled off the three point win.  

We are getting some value here with Indiana for a couple of reasons. The first is they haven’t been playing very well. They ran through a very difficult part of the schedule and lost 9 of their last 10. These were losses against teams like Cleveland, Phoenix, Portland, Atlanta, the Clippers, and Toronto though so they were only favored one time and it was by a single point over the Hawks. Now they know they have to take advantage of a soft slate coming up so they can get back on track.

The other reason there is some value here is that Denver went into Indiana the second week of the season and beat the Pacers by 20.  This actually sets up a nice situation as Indiana is 15-5 ATS on the road when revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a favorite the last 3 years.

The Pacers offense has also been clicking and that sets up a nice situation where Indiana is 77-52 ATS on the road after scoring 100 or more in two straight games since 1996. We also find a strong system in play. Road teams that are revenging a home blowout loss of 20 or more points against an opponent that is coming in off a home win are 41-12 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana!

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Year on Hornets/Jazz OVER

Both of these teams played last night and their key players logged a lot of minutes.  When NBA players get tired their defensive effort is the first to go so I think we’ll see this one easily go over the total tonight.

The Jazz have now gone over in 5 of their last six, having shot over 50% and scoring more than 100 points in their last three games.  Last night they played in Orlando and all five starters logged over 30 minutes.  

Charlotte last night got the opportunity to get their offense fine tuned against the Sixers and scored 109 points.  Walker played 38 minutes and Jefferson 36 while Kidd-Gilchrist and Henderson both played over 30.  The Bobcats have now gone over the total in 4 of their last 5, 6 of their last 8, and 11 of their last 14.  I think you’ll see them get past this total once again here tonight.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The OVER is 32-11 over the last 5 seasons in games played on Saturday with a total of 190 to 199.5 with a road team off an upset win as an underdog. That's a 74% system in favor of this one to go above the mark. Take the OVER!

4* NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Xavier -

Xavier is a good team and I’ll gladly lay this small number on them today.  Auburn likes to bring the full court pressure but Xavier has some solid, veteran guards that won’t be rattled.

On the flip side Aubun’s interior defense is a real weakness and Xavier is shooting 59% from inside the 3-point line this year so I think they will mop up down low.  Auburn is struggled on the offensive glass while giving up too many second chances, while Xavier has been rebounding well all year long, so advantage there with the second chances.

Xavier’s two losses came against two under-rated teams in Long Beach State and UTEP.  They have impressive wins over Alabama and Missouri already.  Auburn hasn’t come close to beating a team in Xavier’s class yet.  They lost by 20 against Tulsa and 30 against Colorado.  I think Xavier rolls here today.

The Musketeers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 60 points or less, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a win by 15 or more points and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after 3 or more consecutive wins.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off a road win and playing with 5 or 6 days of rest are 71-35 ATS since 1997. That's 67% system in favor of the Musketeers. Take Xavier!

5* NCAAB In-State Rivalry Game of the Month on Notre Dame -

This is a neutral site game but I’ll lay the small number with the better team. Notre Dame’s sole loss this year was to Providence when their defense let them down, but Purdue hasn’t played well on offense against any decent team in nearly a month.

Notre Dame hasn’t played a great schedule, but they are coming off a 20 point win over Florida State and have a W over a very good Michigan State Spartan team. The Boilermakers on the other had has some losses to Vanderbilt and North Florida.  

Purdue has struggled against good defenses the last two years, going just 3-12 ATS against teams who hold opponents to 39% or less from the floor. Notre Dame just fits that criteria as they have held opponents to 38.8%.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play on the Fighting Irish. Neutral site favorites that have an explosive offense (76+ ppg) that have scored 75+ in each of their last two games and are going up against an opponent that averages (74-76 ppg) are 37-14 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Fighting Irish. Take Notre Dame!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Florida -

This will the Gators final game before a 9-day break leading up to their in-state showdown against rival Florida State. I look for Florida to come out strong and add their 4th straight win after dropping 4 of their first 7 and lay a beating on the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest is just 5-5 on the season with three ugly losses at Arkansas by 30-points, at home to Minnesota by 15-points and at NC State by 13-points. They also were beat at home by both Iona (81-85) and Delaware State (65-72).

I think we are getting some great value here on Florida due to their less than impressive start to the season. However, the Gators have responded with three straight wins by at least 25-points and there's nothing to be ashamed about having 4 losses to Miami, Georgetown, North Carolina and Kansas. Florida will likely continue to struggle against top notch teams until fully healthy, should continue to beat up on bad teams like Wake Forest.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Favorites in games played on a neutral site that are averaging 67-74 ppg against an opponent that is allowing 67-74 ppg after 3 straight wins by 10 or more points are 51-15 ATS since 1997. That's a 77% system in favor of the Gators. Take Florida!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Western Michigan +

Western Michigan is showing big time value here as an underdog. Northwestern has lost their top returning scorer from last year in senior guard JerShon Cobb this week and in their first game without him were upset at home by Central Michigan 67-80 as a 6-point favorite. Not only did the offense struggle, but they allowed the Chippewas to shoot 58% from the field.

Western Michigan comes in off solid win on the road at Pacific 80-72 and are a respectable 4-3 away from home. The Broncos will be motivated to take advantage of the Wildcats without Cobb and get some revenge from last year's 16-point loss at Northwestern. I'll take the 3.5-points as insurance, but I fully expect Western Michigan to win this game outright.

The Broncos are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU win, while Northwestern is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after being listed as a favorite in each of their previous two games. These trends combine to form a 84% (26-5) system in favor of the Broncos. Take Western Michigan!

4* Ohio State/North Carolina NCAAB Vegas Insider on North Carolina +

Ohio State has played a joke of a schedule so far and in their only real game they got beat by 9 points against Louisville.  North Carolina on the other hand has played a decent schedule and I think that will have them more prepared for this game than the Buckeyes.

It’s tough to compare stats since the strength of schedules are so different for these two squads, but North Carolina is holding opponents to 25.2% from the 3-point line this year while Ohio State has been shooting nearly 42%.  I think this is a stat the Buckeyes have inflated by the inferior competition and they aren’t going to be getting the easy points they are used to with how the Tar Heels play defense.  Louisville was able to completely shut down their offense, and North Carolina should be able to do the same.

A couple of long term trends support our position here.  Since 1997 the Tar Heels are 73-45 ATS after allowing 60 points or less and they are 142-112 ATS in non-conference games.

Adding to this is the fact that Ohio State is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall, 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 neutral site contests and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win by more than 20 points. These trends combine to form a 86% (30-5) system in favor of the Tar Heels. Take North Carolina!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Colorado State -

Colorado State is showing exceptional value here as a mere 3-point road favorite against in-state rival Denver. The Pioneers are just 5-5 on the season and have yet to beat a quality team. Their 5 wins have come against Idaho State, Coppin State, New Orleans and Texas A&M-CC (twice). This is not the same caliber a Denver team as year's past and they are not the same dominant home team.

Colorado State on the other hand are a perfect 10-0 and one of the most underrated teams out of the Mountain West. The Rams recently went on the road and beat Colorado 62-60 as a 5.5-point underdog and are simply not getting the respect they deserve.

Colorado State will also be out for revenge after losing at home 70-80 as a 9.5-point favorite last year. While returning guard Brett Olson was the leading scoring in last year's win, the real difference maker was departed forward Chris Udofia, who had 15 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 blocks. Adding to this is the fact that the Rams had won and covered each of the previous 4 meetings in the series, including a 60-53 road win in 2012 as a 3-point underdog.

Denver is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win. These trends combine to form a dynamite 86% (19-3) system in favor of the Rams. Take Colorado State!

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Magic -

The Magic are showing big time value as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Jazz. This favorable line has a lot to with how these two teams come into this matchup. Orlando lost at Boston by 17 in their most contest, while Jazz won by 18 as a 3.5-point dog at Miami. The key thing to keep in mind is that Utah is just 3-10 on the road and haven't won consecutive games all season. The Jazz are also a mere 2-12 in their last 14 overall.

Orlando comes in at just 10-18 overall, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that the Magic have played an absolutely brutal schedule to this point. Orlando will be playing their 29th game of the season and this will be just their 10th contest at home. Most of the Magic's struggles have come against the top teams, as they are 7-4 SU versus the bottom 14 teams in the league, which includes a 98-93 win at Utah back on Dec. 5.

Not only do I expect the Magic to be the more motivated team here, this is a bad spot for the Jazz. Utah will be playing their 4th consecutive road game in a span of just 6 days. The Jazz are also just 16-29 ATS in their last 45 games after they covered the spread last time out and a mere 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games off a road win.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play going against Utah. Teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are revenging a home loss to an opponent that is off a road loss by 10 or more points are just 15-41 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando!

4* Bucks/Kings NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Kings -

The Kings are expected to get back center DeMarcus Cousins tonight and I look for his return to this team a huge emotional lift. Sacramento had opened the season 9-5 before Cousins' injury and without him on the floor they have lost 8 of their last 10. While the Kings are getting healthy, Milwaukee is dealing with the loss of star rookie Jabari Parker and could potentially be without starting forward Giannis Antetokounmpo after he suffered an ankle sprain in last night's game against Portland.

Not only am I expecting the Kings to come out extremely motivated in Cousins' return, but Sacramento has a big edge here in rest. The Kings will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 5 days, while the Bucks will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and playing their 3rd in the last 4 days overall.

Sacramento is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games when they come in having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 following a SU loss by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a 80% (24-6) system in favor of the Kings. Take Sacramento!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster ATS Blowout on Duke -

The Blue Devils smallest margin of victory during their perfect 9-0 start is 10-points against both Michigan State and Wisconsin. I look for Duke to be all business against the defending champs, who are down a few notches. Connecticut comes in off a 40-point win over Coppin State, but prior to that they had lost 3 in a row to West Virginia, Texas and Yale.

The Huskies rely heavily on Ryan Boatright and Amida Brimah and that's just not enough to go up against this deep and talented Blue Devils squad. I look for freshman Jahlil Okafor to make Brimah a non-factor offensively, while coach K centers the rest of his defense around keeping Boatright in check and forcing someone else to beat them. This is a statement game for the Blue Devils and I wouldn't be shocked if they won here by 20+ points. Take Duke!

3* Grizzlies/Spurs NBA Main Event on Spurs -

Even with Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard sidelines with injuries, I think the Spurs are showing some great value here as a mere 3-point home favorite. San Antonio has won 9 straight over the Grizzlies, including 107-101 win at Memphis just 12 days ago, which is the only home loss the Grizzlies have suffered all season.

The big key here is that this is a horrible spot for Memphis. The Grizzlies just hosted the Warriors in a nationally televised game on ESPN last night and laid it all on the line against Golden State, who still holds the NBA's best record at 21-3. Not only will this be the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but Memphis will be playing their 4th game in a span of just 6 days.

Another factor here is that we are catching the Spurs off a loss (95-108 at Portland). San Antonio has dropped consecutive games just once this season and that was back at the beginning of the year. The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games versus a team with a winning road record.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of Memphis. Teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are revenging a home loss to an opponent that is off a road loss by 10 or more points are just 14-41 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 75% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio.

4* NCAAB Mid-Major Game of the Month on Old Dominion -

The Monarchs are showing some nice value here as a slim 3.5-point home favorite against Georgia State. Old Dominion will be out for revenge from last years 73-79 loss at Georgia State, which saw them lose despite shooting 51% from the field. The difference in the game being 32 made free throws for the Panthers compared to just 13 for the Monarchs. 

Old Dominion should have the calls go more in their favor on their home floor and I look for them to once again shoot at a very high percentage. The Monarchs should also control the glass and I wouldn't be shocked if Georgia State had an off night shooting, as they have been off since Dec. 4 (12 days). Old Dominion had been on a similar break before getting back on the floor in a 85-48 win over North Carolina A&T on Sunday.

It's also worth noting that the Monarchs have dominated so far this season on their home floor, which includes a 73-67 win over then No. 14 VCU and a 63-57 victory over Richmond. Georgia State on the other hand has struggled on the road. While they are 2-2, their two wins came against a couple of below average teams in Oakland (83-78) and IUPU (66-63). Look for the long layoff to be too much for the Panthers to overcome.

Old Dominion is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games when listed as a favorite, 15-6 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 60 points or less in their last contest. Monarchs are also a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games, while Georgia State is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 81% (54-13) system in favor of the Monarchs. Take Old Dominion!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Timberwolves +

There's no question the books are overvaluing the Wizards at home against the Timberwolves tonight. Minnesota's just 2-9 on the road, while Washington is 12-2 at home. However, the Wizards are only 6-7 ATS at the Verizon Center and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 overall. Washington has won 4 straight and 8 of 9 overall, which I believe is going to have them struggling to give a bad team like the Timberwolves the respect they deserve.

Getting up for Minnesota becomes an even bigger challenge when you factor in that this will be Washington's 6th game in the last 9 days. The Wizards are ready for a break and could find themselves looking ahead to the two days off following this contest. Look for the Timberwolves to be the more aggressive team, especially early on, which should allow them to keep this close enough to cover the large spread.

There's a nice system in play backing Minnesota as well. Road underdogs of 10 or more points who have lost at least 4 of their last 6 games against an opponent that has won at least 8 of their last 10 are 73-41 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 64% system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

4* NCAAB ATS Blowout Game of the Month on Oklahoma -

The Sooners are actually showing some great value here against Oral Roberts as a 17.5-point favorite, as this is a horrible scheduling spot for the Golden Eagles. Oral Roberts just played last night at home against Missouri State in a makeup game from Dec. 7. Not only will the Golden Eagles be playing in rare back-to-back set, but this will be their 3rd game in 4 days, as they faced New Mexico on Saturday.

Oklahoma on the other hand will be playing just their 2nd game in the last 11 days. This will also be just the 2nd true home game for the Sooners since Nov. 23, which should have plenty motivated to take the floor in front of their home fans. Oklahoma three home games this season have all resulted in blowout wins. They beat SE Louisiana 78-53, Northwestern St 90-68 and Missouri 82-63. Oral Roberts adds even more value here, as they are 0-3 on the road, including a 14-point loss at Missouri.

Oklahoma is 16-7 ATS in their last 23 when playing only their 2nd game in a week, 13-5 in their last 18 when they come in having won 2 of their last 3 and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games against a bad offensive team that is shooting 42% or worse from the field. Oral Roberts is 7-24 ATS in their last 31 when they have won 3 or their last 4 and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. These trends combine to form a 75% (72-24) system in favor of the Sooners. Take Oklahoma!

4* NBA Non-Conference Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Clippers OVER

The books have set mark the too low for tonight's showdown between the Clippers and Pistons. Los Angeles is going to be extra motivated here after dropping each of their last two on the road to the Wizards and Bucks. The Clippers didn't shoot well in either of those games, hitting below 43% in both contests. I look for the offense to get back on track at the Staples Center, where LA is averaging 106.7 ppg and shooting an impressive 47.4% from the field.

Another big key here to the Clippers offense having their way in this one, is the Pistons aren't going to have the energy defensively in this one. Detroit will be playing their 3rd road game in a span of 4 days. The Pistons have also struggled against LA, allowing at least 104 points in each of the last 4 meetings. In the last two at the Staple Center, these two teams have combined for 115 and 126 points, which just goes to show the value we are getting here with a total of just 204.

OVER is 28-12 in the Pistons last 40 games against a team with a winning record and 8-1 in the Clippers 9 games this season against a team that is allowing 99+ points/game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. OVER is 45-12 since 1996 in games where you have a team off 2 consecutive road wins by 5 points or less in the first half of the season. That's a 79% system in favor of this one finishing above the mark. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Game of the Month on Magic +

The Raptors continue to be overvalued after their strong start to the season, which has them sitting with the best record in the Eastern Conference at 18-6. The key here is that after starting 13-2, Toronto has gone just 5-4 over their last 9 games. To no surprise this stretch has come following the injury to All-Star DeMar DeRozan.

With DeRozan still sidelined I look for Orlando to cover here and potentially win this game outright. Keep in mind that the Magic nearly upset the Raptors in Toronto earlier this season, losing 100-104 after leading by as many as 11 in the 4th quarter. Orlando has quietly been one of the better teams to back this season, as they are 16-10 ATS, including a 12-5 ATS record on the road and 7-1 ATS record over their last 8.

The big key here is that we are catching the Raptors in a bad spot. Toronto will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in last 4 days overall. Adding to that is the fact that they needed overtime to beat the Knicks yesterday. Look for Orlando to be the more aggressive team in this one as they come in off a full days rest.

There's also a big time system in play on the Magic based off their win at home against the Hawks last time out. Road teams off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog that has won 25% to 4% of their games on the season are 22-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 88% system in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando!

3* NBA Total Annihilator on Celtics/76ers OVER 206

While these two teams combined for just 191 points at Philadelphia back on Nov. 19, that was the first time in the last 4 meetings where they failed to combine for at last 213 points. I believe it's created some great value here, as we have two of the worst defensive teams in the league going at it. The Celtics are allowing 108.5 ppg on the road and the 76ers are giving up 108.7 ppg at home.

Not only do we have two teams here that don't play any defense, but we have two teams that love to push the pace. The Celtics are tied with the Warriors with the fastest pace in the league at 100.4 (number of possessions/game). The next best team in terms of pace behind Boston and Golden State is the 76ers at 99.2. With the Celtics coming off a full two days of rest and the 76ers off yesterday, we should see more than enough possessions and easy baskets to push this game well over the mark of 206.

OVER is 21-7 in the Celtics last 28 against the Eastern Conference, 6-2 in their last 8 road games versus a team with a losing home record and 12-4 in their last 16 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. The OVER is also 5-2 in the 76ers last 7 home games and 33-19 in their last 52 home games after two or more consecutive losses. These trends combine to form a 69% (77-34) system. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Spurs -

The Spurs are showing tremendous value here as a small road favorite against the Nuggets. Not only is San Antonio going to be extremely motivated after Friday's overtime loss at home to the lowly Lakers, but they catch the Nuggets in a tough spot. Denver just played last night in Houston and will be in the 2nd game of back-to-back set.

San Antonio has won 3 straight in the series and in their last visit to Denver they rolled the Nuggets 133-102. Going back since 1996 the Spurs are 25-11 ATS versus Denver.

The Nuggets failed to cover against the Rockets, losing 96-108 as a 7-point underdog and are now just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games against the Western Conference. Denver is also 0-7 ATS this season when listed as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. San Antonio on the other hand is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a SU loss and 16-5 ATS over the last 3 seasons off an upset loss as a home favorite of 10 or more points. These trends combine to form a 81% (38-9) system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!

4* Knicks/Raptors NBA Total No Brainer on UNDER

The books have set the total too high in today's matchup between the Knicks and Raptors. These two Atlantic Division rivals have a history of playing low scoring games at New York. In their two meetings at the Garden last year they combined for 178 points and 187. You have to go back to 2011 to find the last time that these two teams combined for more than 194 points in New York.

The Knicks are going to be playing with a lot of confidence here after finally snapping their skid with a 101-95 win at Boston on Friday. New York has really slowed the pace down this year. Only Miami (91.5) plays at a slower pace than the Knicks. The key here is that while they are just 3-9 SU at home, they have been able to dictate the tempo at home. New York is averaging just 91.4 ppg and allowing only 94.8 ppg at MSG this season.

UNDER is 5-1 in the Knicks last 6 home games and 4-1 in their last 5 against a division opponent. The UNDER is also 5-2 in Toronto's last 7 after a game where they covered the spread and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 games following a SU win by more than 10 points. These trends combine to form a 83% (19-4) system backing this one to go below the mark! Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Total Dominator on Timberwolves/Lakers UNDER

While these are two of the worst defensive teams in the league, I think the total here has been set too high. The Lakers are coming off a draining win at San Antonio on Friday and I just don't see them looking to push the pace at all tonight. This will also be the 2nd time that these two teams have faced off in the last month and I look for a more inspired effort defensively from the Lakers than the first meeting, which resulted in a 1-point home loss.

The other key here is that both of these team are not all that great offensively. The Lakers are only averaging 97.6 ppg over their last 5 and the Timberwolves are even worse at 96.2 ppg over their last 5. The UNDER is 5-1 in Los Angeles' last 6 and 3-0 in the Timberwolves last 3. The UNDER is also a strong 15-4 in Minnesota's last 19 home games against terrible defensive teams that are allowing opponents to shoot 48% or better from the field.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The UNDER is 41-15 when you have a total of 200 or more points with a home team that is off a loss by 10 or more points to a division rival playing on a Sunday. That's 73% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!