3* NCAAB Situational Oddsmakers Error on NC State +

NC State is showing great value here as a relatively big home dog against in-state rival North Carolina. While the Wolfpack are just 4-10 inside ACC play they could be a lot better. NC State has 5 losses by 7-points or less in conference play and all but one of their defeats has come by 11 or fewer. That includes a 55-67 defeat at North Carolina back on 1/16. 

The fact that they were able to keep it respectable at North Carolina is a good sign, as the Tar Heels are only outscoring opponents by 6.4 ppg on the road. This is also a tough spot for North Carolina, who comes in off a huge 96-71 win at home against Miami and has a massive game on deck at Virginia. 

While NC State is just 1-2 in their last 3 home games against the Tar Heels, the two losses came by a combined 3-points, including a 1-point loss in overtime. North Carolina is 2-9 ATS in their last 10 off a home win by 10 or more and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a conference win by 20 or more points. Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against at team with a winning record and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 revenging a same season loss. Take the points! 

5* NBA Hardwood No Brainer on Cavs -

The Cavaliers come into this game off an ugly 88-96 home loss to the Pistons as a 9-point favorite on Tuesday. It wasn't all that surprising to see Cleveland struggle in that game, as they really invested a lot the previous day in a 115-92 win at Oklahoma City. Regardless, it now has the Cavaliers poised for a huge bounce back performance at home against the Hornets. 

Not only is Cleveland going to be motivated after what took place against Detroit last time out, but they will also be out to make a statement against Charlotte, who defeated them 106-97 earlier this month. Last time the Hornets visited Cleveland, the Cavaliers cruised to a 129-90 blowout win as a 10-point favorite. I look for a very similar type of outcome in this one, as Charlotte is just 10-17 on the road. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are outrebounding opponents by 3+ rebounds/game are 152-101 (60%) ATS in the month of February since 1996. Lay the points! 

5* Big East Game of the Month on Xavier -

The Musketeers went on the road and were embarrassed 64-95 at Villanova in the conference opener back on 12/31. Needless to say, Xavier has had this game circled on their calendar ever since that defeat. The Musketeers have gone an impressive 12-2 since that loss and come in having won 3 straight by at least 14-points. All 3 of those wins have come against stiff competition. They beat Butler by 17 on the road, Providence by 11 at home and Georgetown by 18 on the road. 

Villanova is the No. 1 ranked team in the country, which hasn't exactly been a blessing this season. The Wildcats come in having won 7 straight and are 11-2 on the road, but have had some close calls away from home against inferior teams than the Xavier. The Musketeers are 13-1 at home and will be the more motivated team in this one. 

Favorites is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 games in this series, while Xavier is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 off 3 straight wins by 10 or more points and 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less. That's a perfect 24-0 (100%) system backing the Musketeers. Lay the Points! 

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nets/Blazers UNDER

The Blazers come into this game having gone OVER the total in 4 straight games and have combined for 142 and 126 in their first two games back from the All-Star break. While the Nets went UNDER the total in their last game, the OVER has cashed in 7 of their last 9. The books have had no choice but to inflate this number, thus creating great value on the UNDER.  

This is a big letdown spot for Portland after demolishing the Warriors and holding on for a 4-point home win over a surging Utah team. I just don't see the focus being there against a Nets team they are favored against by double-digits. Brooklyn only averages 95.6 ppg on the road and have seen 15 of their 23 road games go UNDER the total. 

UNDER is 27-10-1 in the Blazers last 38 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 5-1 in their last 6 against the Eastern Conference. UNDER is also 19-8 in the Nets last 27 as a dog of 10 or more and 14-4 in their last 18 road games off a home loss. We'll take the UNDER!

4* NBA Total ANNIHILATOR on Magic/76ers UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for tonight's contest between the Magic and 76ers and it's time to take advantage. These two teams played back on 1/20 and combined for just 183 points in a 96-87 76ers win at Orlando. Overall each of the last 7 and 11 of the last 12 meetings between these two teams have gone UNDER the posted total for this matchup. 

Keep in mind that Orlando only averages 97.7 ppg on the road, while Philadelphia is scoring just 96.2 ppg at home. Neither of these teams shoot well from the field. The Magic are connecting on just 44.8% of their field goal attempts and the 76ers are at just 43.5%. 

UNDER is 9-1 in the Magic's last 10 road games off a loss by 3-points or less, 13-3 in their last 16 against a team with a losing record and 4-0 in their last 4 road games against a team with a losing home record. UNDER is also 8-2 in the 76ers last 10 against a team with a losing record and 21-8 in their last 29 after allowing 60 or more points in the 1st half of 2 straight games. We'll take the UNDER! 

4* SEC Revenge GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida -

Florida comes into this contest off a 69-73 overtime loss at South Carolina, where they failed to cover the spread as a 2.5-point dog. The Gators are now just 1-5 ATS in their last 6, which I believe has them showing some big time value here at home against Vanderbilt, who is being overvalued off a 13-point win and cover at home against Georgia. Florida is a dominant 12-2 at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by 15.1 ppg, while the Commodores are just 2-8 in their last 10 true road games. Gators also have revenge on their minds from a heartbreaking 59-60 loss at Vanderbilt, where they shot a miserable 32.9% from the field. 

Florida head coach Mike White is 9-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less and 13-4 ATS in his last 17 against strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 39% or worse from the field. Gators are also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team with a road winning % of less than 40%, while Vanderbilt is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 off a game where they covered the spread. We'll lay the number behind this 43-8 ATS system! 

5* Iowa St/W Virginia Big 12 Game of the Week on Iowa St -

Iowa State is showing some great value here as a decently priced road dog against the struggling Mountaineers. West Virginia has lost 2 straight and 3 of their last 4 overall, including an ugly 62-76 home loss to Oklahoma last time out. 

Iowa State simply isn't getting a lot of respect right now, as they have gone just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. This line is also inflated due to the fact that the Cyclones lost at home 76-81 to the Mountaineers as a 5-point favorite. Prior to that defeat, Iowa State had won each of the previous 3 meetings in the series, including a 74-72 win at West Virginia as a 4.5-point dog in their last trip to Morgantown. 

Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following a double-digit loss at home, while the Cyclones are 58-38 ATS in their last 96 games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on Monday. Take Iowa State! 

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Bucks -

This is going to seem like a big number for Milwaukee to be laying at home against the Lakers, who have covered 6 of their last 7, but this is a horrible spot for Los Angeles. The Lakers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and the previous two were at home against the Spurs and at Chicago.

Those are two teams worth getting up for and I just don't see LA coming out with any energy or motivation in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set against the Bucks. Milwaukee on the other hand is coming off a 117-109 upset win at Atlanta and I look for them to carry over that momentum at home, where they are a solid 15-9 on the season. 

Bucks are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 after scoring 100+ points in their previous game, 21-8 ATS in their last 28 after playing their last game as a road dog and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 when playing 3 games in 4 days. Bucks are also a dominant 14-3 ATS in their last 17 against a team that's won 25% or less of their games. Take Milwaukee! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Missouri St -

The Bears are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Ramblers, as we are seeing a big overreaction to both of these teams last game. Loyola-Chicago upset a red-hot Northern Iowa team 59-56 as a 4.5-point home dog, while Missouri State got embarrassed by 31-points in a 68-99 loss at Wichita State. 

The Ramblers also come in having covered 4 straight, which is definitely playing into this small number. The key here is we have Loyola in a huge letdown spot after that big home win and the Bears primed for a max effort at home off that ugly loss. Keep in mind that the Ramblers are just 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS on the road this season. 

Loyola is 5-15 ATS in their last 20 off an upset win as a home dog, while the Bears are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a conference loss by 20 or more points. Take Missouri State! 

4* NBA No Doubt Bookie Blowout on Pistons -

We are getting some great value here on the Pistons at home against the Pelicans. Detroit has been a money-making machine at home when laying points, as they are 13-4 ATS on the season when listed as a home favorite. 

We can expect a max effort here from the Pistons after an ugly 86-98 loss at Washington in their first game back from the All-Star break. That defeat was Detroit's 4th straight loss overall and for a team that is fighting to make the playoffs, this is a game they desperately need to win. 

New Orleans won 121-114 at home against the 76ers on Friday, but this is not a team that is built to do a whole lot down the stretch. The Pelicans have had a difficult time playing well against the Eastern Conference, as they are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games. 

Pistons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games after losing 4 of their last 5, winning by an average of 12.1 ppg and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games revenging a loss of 10 or more points. Take Detroit! 

5* Cavs/Thunder NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Thunder -

Oklahoma City comes into this game off a heartbreaking 98-101 home loss to the Pacers (I cashed my underdog GOM on Indiana +9 in that game). Now it has the Thunder in a prime bounce back spot at home against the surging Cavaliers, who have won 4 straight. That loss to the Pacers was only the 6th time all season OKC was defeated on their home floor, as they are 25-6. 

The Thunder are simply not getting the respect they deserve in this game, in large part due to the Cavaliers riding that 4-game winning streak and having won 9 of their last 11 overall. The key thing to keep in mind, is that all but 2 of those wins came at home, where Cleveland is 23-4. 

Cavaliers are just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 road games after playing their previous game at home and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games after scoring 105+ points in 3 straight games. Thunder are 36-19 ATS in their last 55 off a loss by 3 points or less and 27-8-1 ATS in their last 36 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Oklahoma City!

5* West Coast Conf Game of the Month on Gonzaga -

The Bulldogs are going to be out for revenge from a heartbreaking 67-70 loss at St Mary's earlier this season. Gonzaga managed to lose that game, despite shooting 59% from the field, as they blew a 8-point halftime lead. I look for the Bulldogs to have another strong showing offensively, expect this time they keep their foot on the gas and turn this into a blowout. 

Gonzaga has gone a strong 11-3 at home this season and will be taking the floor at home for the final time in the regular season. That only adds to the energy and focus for this matchup and I just don't see St Mary's being able to keep pace. 

Gaels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games, 1-9 ATS in their last 10 conference games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 following a SU win. Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a winning road record and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games when playing on 1 day of rest. Take Gonzaga! 

3* Warriors/Clippers Primetime Main Event on Warriors -

The Warriors were embarrassed last night in a 105-137 loss at Portland in their first game back from the All-Star break. The Clippers on the other hand returned from the All-Star break with a 105-86 blowout win at home over the Spurs (didn't have Leonard). I just don't see Golden State losing back-to-back games and the line is right for the picking on this one. 

Warriors are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 off a road loss by 10 or more points, while the Clippers are 33-53 ATS in their last 86 home games off a blowout win by 15 or more points.

Warriors are also 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games against at team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 after a game in which they failed to cover the spread. Los Angeles is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games against a team with a winning road record and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win. Take Golden State! 

4* NCAA Big Chalk No Doubt Blowout on Arkansas -

The Razorbacks come into this game having lost 3 straight, including an ugly 86-90 home loss to Auburn as a 16.5-point favorite last time out. This not only has Arkansas showing tremendous value at home against a bad Missouri team, but we can expect to see one of their best efforts of the season tonight. 

Arkansas is 11-3 at home on the season and it's well known that the Razorbacks have one of the strongest homecourt advantages in the SEC. That a key factor here, as Missouri has gone a miserable 0-11 away from home this season, with a 0-6 record on the road inside SEC play. The closest the Tigers have come to a road win is a 9-point loss at Georgia and 9-point defeat at Alabama. 

Missouri is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after winning 2 of their last 3, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games off a road win and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 off a win by 6 or less points. Razorbacks are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games off 3 straight conference losses. Take Arkansas! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Shocker on Texas A&M -

The Aggies are showing great value here as a pick'em at home against the Wildcats. It wasn't that long ago Texas A&M was ranked inside the Top 10, but a 4-game losing streak now has this team flying under the radar, as most are going to look to back Kentucky riding a 4-game winning streak. 

The key thing you have to keep in mind is that almost all of Texas A&M's struggles have come on the road (lost 4 straight away from home). This has been a different team at home, where they are 14-1. I still believe this Aggies team is one of the most talented teams in the country and this is a game where we can expect to see Texas A&M lay everything they have on the line against the Wildcats. 

Texas A&M is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after a contest where they made 78% or more of their free throws and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games against at team with a losing road record. Kentucky is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 off 3 straight wins by 10 or more points and 2-12 ATS in their last 14 after covering the spread in 3 of their last 4. Take Texas A&M! 

4* Early Bird NCAAB ATS No Brainer on South Carolina -

South Carolina is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Gators. The Gamecocks come into this game off back to back losses, losing by 27-points at home to Kentucky and then a shocking 67-72 loss at Missouri. That sets up South Carolina in a prime bounce back spot at home against a Florida team that is just 5-7 away from home and 1-4 ATS in their last 5. 

Prior to getting embarrassed at home by Kentucky, the Gamecocks had opened up a perfect 13-0 at home. This line is simply not giving South Carolina the respect they deserve. The Gators are just 2-4 on the road in SEC play and the two wins have come against Ole Miss and Georgia, nothing to get excited about. 

Florida is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after 2 straight games with 12 or less assists and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 after a game with a combined score of 115 or less. South Carolina is 2-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 or less and 1-0 ATS this season after 2 straight games where they shot 37% or worse from the field. All this adds up to a perfect 18-0 system in favor of the Gamecocks. Take South Carolina! 

3* Spurs/Lakers NBA Over/Under No Brainer on OVER

San Antonio managed just 86 points in last night's ugly 19-point road loss to the Clippers. Regardless of who suits up for the Spurs tonight, I'm confident they are going to have zero problem exploiting the Lakers defense. LA is allowing 106.1 ppg on the season and have allowed 106+ in each of their last 3 meetings against the Spurs. 

The key here is that with the Spurs playing on no rest and the Lakers going to be highly motivated for this matchup at home, I expect LA to provide more than enough offensively to push this over the mark. The Lakers went into the break averaging 103.6 ppg over their last 5 and the Spurs are giving up an average of 99.5 ppg in their last 26 road games when they were listed as a road favorite in their previous contest. 

OVER is 18-4 in the Lakers last 22 when playing 6 or less games in 14 days and 4-1 in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. OVER is also 3-0-1 in the Spurs last 4 against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 18-8 in their last 26 off a SU loss by more than 10 points.

Adding to this is a great system. The OVER is 20-6 (77%) when you have a teams playing on no rest against an opponent off 4 or more days rest (post All-Star break) with a total of 200 or more. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Vegas Insider Total of the Week on Nuggets/Kings UNDER

I believe the books have set the total too high for tonight's showdown between the Nuggets and Kings. While Sacramento comes in allowing a staggering 109.1 ppg on the season, they are better on that side of the ball at home (106.6 ppg). The Kings also have made it clear that they need to get better defensively and with how much this game means to their playoff chances, I expect all out effort on that side of the ball tonight. 

On the flip side of this, Denver is also perceived to be a bad defensive team, as they are giving up 103.4 ppg. However, the Nuggets went into the All-Star break really playing well on that side of the ball, as they allowed just 97.6 ppg over their last 5. This game has a little extra meaning for Denver, as head coach Michael Malone goes up against his former team. Keep in mind, Malone's a defensive guy and knows the strengths and weakness of a lot of the Kings players. 

UNDER is 13-4 in the Kings last 17 home games against teams who average 99+ ppg and 9-1 in their last 10 when playing 6 or less games in 14 days. UNDER is also 10-3 in the Nuggets last 13 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. 

Adding to this is a great system. The UNDER is 26-6 (81%) when you have a total of 210 or more with a road team off a win by 10 or more points against an opponent off 2 straight games with 215 or more combined points. Take the UNDER! 

3* Bulls/Raptors NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on OVER 

The Bulls come into this contest off a 95-106 loss at Cleveland last night. It was the 8th straight game in which Chicago has allowed 100 or more points. With Jimmy Butler sidelined, I just don't see the Bulls defense being able to contain the Raptors in this one, especially after playing such a big game last night against division rival Cleveland. 

Toronto was averaging 104.4 ppg over their last 5 prior to the break and have scored 100+ points in 13 of their last 14 overall. I look for a very similar type of scoring output to what we saw when these two teams last met on 1/3, as they combined for 228 points. Keep in mind it was the 5th straight meeting between these two teams where they combined for 200 or more points. 

OVER is 15-6 in Toronto's 21 games this season against a team with a winning record and 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record. OVER is also 21-5 in the Bulls las t26 against the Atlantic division and 5-2 in their last 7 when playing on 0 days of rest.

Adding to this is a great system. The OVER is 20-6 (77%) when you have a teams playing on no rest against an opponent off 4 or more days rest (post All-Star break) with a total of 200 or more. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Underdog of the Month on Pacers +

The Pacers are showing exceptional value here as a near double-digit road dog against the Thunder. Indiana went into the All-Star break off an embarrassing 22-point loss at home to the Hornets and I look for them to come out extremely motivated in their first game back. Prior to that loss the Pacers had won 5 of 7. 

Oklahoma City has gone 14-2 in their last 16 games and I believe that has them way overvalued here. The Thunder could also have a hard time getting up for this contest, being it's the first game after the break and they have a much bigger home game on deck agains the Cavaliers Sunday. 

Indiana is a dominant 13-4 ATS in their last 17 when playing 4 or less games in 10 days, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 following a double-digit loss at home and 18-8 ATS in their last 27 against a team with a winning record. Thunder are just 10-24 ATS in their last 34 against teams who average 99+ points/game and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 overall. Take Indiana! 

3* Pistons/Wizards NBA Total Dominator on OVER

I'm expecting an offensive explosion tonight in Washington. The Wizards were able to hold the Jazz to just 89 points last night, but Utah is one of the worst offensive teams in the league. Detroit comes in averaging 101.8 ppg and will have a much easier time putting up points on Washington. Keep in mind the Wizards are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and are allowing 105.1 ppg on the season. 

Detroit isn't a great defensive team either, especially on the road, where they are giving up 102.6 ppg. I don't expect the Pistons defense to be in great form tonight, as they will be working in newly acquired Tobias Harris and dealing with the losses of some key contributors. It takes time playing together to build chemistry on defense and I just don't see them having much success on that side of the ball here. 

OVER is 13-4 in the Wizards last 17 after playing their previous game against a team from the Western Conference, 6-1 i their last 7 when playing on 0 days rest and 7-2 in Detroit's last 9 against the Eastern Conference. 

Adding to this is a great system. The OVER is 20-6 (77%) when you have a teams playing on no rest against an opponent off 4 or more days rest (post All-Star break) with a total of 200 or more. Take the OVER! 

4* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on Washington + 

The Huskies are showing great value here as a home dog against the Golden Bears. Washington is going to be highly motivated in this spot, as they have lost 3 straight. Nothing to be ashamed about those defeats, as they lost at home to Arizona by 5-points, at Utah by 8 and at Colorado by 1. 

While Washington is being undervalued due to their recent slide, Cal is being overvalued after winning 3 straight. The key thing to keep in mind with the Golden Bears surge is all 3 wins came at home. Cal is just 1-8 on the road this season with a 0-5 record away from home in league play. Washington on the other hand has a strong home court edge, as they are 10-4 at home. 

Huskies are 34-19 ATS in their last 53 after 3 or more consecutive losses, 14-6 ATS in their last 20 against a team with a winning record and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss. Cal is 1-7 ATS this season in road games against a team that's won between 60% and 80% of their games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after 3 straight games forcing an opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers. Take Washington! 

3* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Washington State +

The Cougars come into this game having lost 11 straight games, while Stanford just pulled off a huge 76-72 upset win over Oregon as a 6.5-point dog. Most will be looking to jump on the Cardinal in this spot, but I think it's a perfect time to jump on Washington State. While the Cougars have lost 5 straight at home, they have been competitive in a lot of those losses, including a  4-point defeat to Washington and 5-point loss against Colorado. Keep in mind this is the same Washington State team that knocked off UCLA at home 85-78. 

This is arguably the Cougars last legit shot at getting a win, as they host Cal next and then play their last 3 on the road. I'm expecting max effort here from Washington State. At the same time, this is a tough spot for the Cardinal. They are in a huge letdown spot after that big win over Oregon and have really struggled on the road, where they are just 2-6 on the season. 

Stanford is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning record and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after going over the total in their previous game. All this adds up to a perfect 16-0 system favoring the Cougars. Take Washington State! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Total Top Play on Jazz/Wizards UNDER

Both the Wizards and Jazz are fighting to make the playoffs in their respective conferences and I look for both teams to come out with a lot of energy on the defensive side of the ball after the long layoff with the All-Star break. At the same time, the long layoff will have both offenses struggling to find their rhythm in the first game back. 

Utah is the key for this one going under the total. The Jazz went into the All-Star break having won 7 of their last 8 and a big reason for that was their defense. Utah has held 8 of their last 10 opponents to 96 or fewer points and no team plays at a slower pace than the Jazz. Washington does allow 105.4 ppg, but are more than capable of slowing down a below-average Utah offense on their home floor. 

Both meetings last year between these two teams saw fewer than 180 points and 5 of the last 6 in the series have gone below the total posted for this game. Under is 26-12 in Utah's last 38 against terrible defensive teams that allow 103+ ppg and 21-9 in their last 30 against the Eastern Conference. Under is also 7-1 in the Wizards last 8 home games against a team with a losing record. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system. UNDER is 25-6 (81%) in games with a total of 190 to 199.5 where you have a team that's won 8 or more their last 10 games, who has played 3 or fewer games in the last 10 days. Take the UNDER! 

4* Colorado/USC Late Night Vegas Insider on USC -

I really like the Trojans to make easy work of the Buffaloes at home tonight. USC is going to come out extremely focused after dropping back-to-back road games against Arizona and Arizona State and will be out for some serious revenge against Colorado, who they have lost 7 straight to in the series. 

Colorado comes in off back-to-back wins over Washington State and Washington, but both wins came at home, where the Buffaloes are now 14-1 on the season. Colorado is just 5-6 away from home and 2-4 on the road inside the Pac-12. That includes a 14-point loss at Cal and 20-point defeat at Oregon.

Buffaloes also could be without their best player in Josh Scott, who is questionable with an ankle injury. Scott leads the team in both scoring (16.7 ppg) and rebounding (9.1 rpg). Even if he plays, I look for him to be limited. 

It's also important to note that USC has a huge homecourt advantage, as they are 14-0 at home this season, where they are winning by an average of 17.7 ppg. Their only conference home game in which they haven't won by 10 or more points was against Arizona. 

Colorado is just 2-9 ATS over their last 11 road games after 2 or more consecutive wins and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after 15+ games against a team that's averaging 77 or more ppg. Trojans are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team with a winning record and 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 home games overall. Take USC! 

5* NCAAB AAC Game of the Month on Houston -

The Cougars are showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Green Wave. Houston comes into this contest playing their best basketball of the season, as they have won 5 of their last 6 with the only loss coming on the road against a very good Tulsa team. 

The reason we are catching a good number with Houston here is due to the fact that Tulane comes in off a huge 94-87 overtime win at home against Memphis as a 7-point dog. As impressive as that win is, the Green Wave are still just 3-10 inside the American and the other two wins have come against the likes of South Florida and East Carolina, who are a combined 5-22 in league play. 

Houston won 63-45 at home over Tulane earlier this season and didn't play close to their best game, as they shot just 41% from the field and 14.3% from behind the 3-point line. We can expect better shooting this time around and a similar edge on the boards (+18 previous meeting), which should lead to an easy win here.

It's also important to note that the fact that Tulane just pulled off the upset helps us here. Not only does it put the Green Wave in a big letdown spot, but it adds some focus that might not have been their for Houston. 

Tulane is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 conference home games and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. Cougars are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after playing 2 straight at home and 21-9 ATS in their last 30 off 2 or more home wins. Take Houston! 

3* Providence/Xavier Big East ATS Annihilator on Providence +

The Friars are showing big time value here on the road against the Musketeers. Providence will be out for revenge from a 68-75 home loss to Xavier back on 1/26. The key thing to keep in mind with that defeat for the Friars, is they were in a horrible spot off a huge 82-76 win at Villanova as a 12.5-point underdog. 

Upsetting teams on the road has been a theme for Providence this season. Not only did they win at Villanova, but they knocked off Georgetown 73-69 as a 3-point road dog, won at Creighton 50-48 as a 2.5-point dog and won at Butler 81-73 as a 7.5-point dog. 

The reason we are seeing Providence catch such a big number here, is the fact that the Friars come in having lost 3 of their last 4 and have failed to cover the spread in all 4 of those games. We also find Xavier off a 74-57 blowout win at Butler as a 3.5-point dog. Pulling off the outright upset won't be easy, but it's definitely not out of the question. Either way I'm expecting a close game down to the wire. 

Friars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games off a home win, 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after scoring 75+ in two straight games and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Providence! 

3* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on TCU +

The Horned Frogs come into this game with a mere 2-10 record in Big 12 play and are fresh off an ugly 49-73 loss at West Virginia. TCU is a team that the betting public wants nothing to do with and it's why they are showing great value at home against a Kansas State team that is just 3-9 in the Big 12 and a miserable 3-8 away from home. 

This is also a tough spot for the Wildcats, who have zero chance at an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament. That makes it really hard for Kansas State to emotionally get up for a game against a team like TCU, especially off a heartbreaking overtime loss at Oklahoma State and a huge home game on deck against in-state rival Kansas on Saturday. 

The Horned Frogs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a losing road record, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss by more than 20 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game. Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5. Take TCU! 

4* W Virginia/Texas NCAAB No Doubt Rout on West Virginia +

This is going to seem like a great spot to back the Longhorns at home off back-to-back losses on the road against Big 12 heavy weights Oklahoma and Iowa State, especially considering Texas won 49-56 at West Virginia earlier this season. 

I don't see it playing out that way. West Virginia will be out for revenge against the Longhorns and that first loss wasn't a good spot for the Mountaineers. West Virginia was coming off two huge games against Kansas (won 74-63) and Oklahoma (68-70) and simply didn't have anything left in the tank for Texas and likely didn't give the Longhorns the respect they deserved. The Mountaineers shot just 31.1% from the field and forced a season-low 8 turnovers, two huge signs of a team that wasn't motivated and lacking energy. 

While Texas is 12-1 at home, West Virginia is 9-4 on the road with a 5-2 record away from home in Big 12 play. The only two losses coming against Oklahoma and Kansas, arguably the two best teams outside of the Mountaineers in the conference. 

West Virginia defeated TCU 73-42 in their last game and are a dominant 21-8 ATS in their last 29 off a blowout win by 30 or more points. The Mountaineers are also 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, while Texas is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take West Virginia! 

5* NCAAB Big East Game of the Month on Butler -

We have already seen this line jump from 4.5 to 6.5, despite the majority of the public action coming in on Creighton. While I would have loved to have the Bulldogs at -4.5, I still like them a lot  at the current line. 

Butler had won 3 straight prior to an embarrassing 57-74 home loss to Xavier in their last game as a 3.5-point favorite. That loss isn't going to sit well with the Bulldogs, but that's not the only motivation angle here, as Butler will be out to revenge a 64-72 loss on the road to the Bluejays. 

Creighton has won 3 straight, including a 65-62 win at Marquette in their last game, but the Bluejays have been widely inconsistent in Big East play and have had their struggles on the road. While this game is important for both teams, it means a lot more to Butler, who is on the NCAA Tournament bubble. 

Bulldogs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games after failing to cover their last contest and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 off an embarrassing home loss where they scored 60 or fewer points. Take Butler! 

5* Oklahoma State/Kansas ESPN Vegas Insider on Oklahoma St +

Even with this being a revenge game for Kansas, who lost 67-86 at Oklahoma State, I just don't see them being able to bring that same kind of energy an intensity against a Cowboys team that is sitting one-game ahead of last place TCU at 3-9 in conference play.

On the flip side of this, I expect Oklahoma State to come out extremely motivated to show that the first win was no fluke. The Cowboys may be just 3-9 in Big 12 play, but things could be a lot different if they could have closed out some games. Oklahoma State has 5 defeats in conference play by 7-points or less. 

Given the fact that Kansas is 13-0 at home, riding a 5-game winning streak and playing with revenge, I believe oddsmakers had no choice here but to inflate this line, especially given the small card on Monday. Keep in mind that in the last 10 meetings, only once has Kansas won by more than 12-points and that was by 15 back in 2012 as a 17.5-point favorite. 

Favorites of 10 to 19.5 points who averaging 76+ ppg and are off 3 or more consecutive unders are just 17-49 (26%) ATS since 1997 against an average offensive team (67-75 ppg) after 15+ games. It's also worth noting that teams in this spot are just 2-8 ATS this season. Take Oklahoma State! 

5* Miami/Florida St ACC Vegas Insider on Florida State Pick'em

This is a game the Seminoles desperately need to win at home if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. Florida State is currently projected as a No. 12 seed, which means they are one of the last at-large teams expected to make the field. A signature win over No. 12 Miami would definitely help their cause. 

The fact that the Seminoles aren't in the Top 25 and are the favorite at some books, is a great sign that the oddsmakers believe Florida State has the edge. I couldn't agree more. The Seminoles are a strong 8-2 at home and most importantly are a young team that is getting better and better as the season progresses. 

Miami is a quality team, but they have had some struggles on the road inside conference play. They lost by 11 at Clemson and 16 at NC State, two teams that I think are very comparable to the Seminoles. Hurricanes are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against s team with a wining home record.

Seminoles allowed Syracuse to shoot a ridiculous 62% in their last game, but are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 after a game where they allowed a shooting percentage of 55% or higher. They are also a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 on Sunday. Take Florida State! 

3* NCAAB Late Night Bookie Destroyer on UNLV -

The Rebels are going to be out for revenge from a 65-66 loss at Colorado State back on 1/6. That was an uncharacteristic performance for the UNLV offense, which comes into today's game averaging 77.0 ppg.

I don't see the Rams being able to have that same kind of success on the defensive end in this one. UNLV averages 80.9 ppg at home, while Colorado State comes in giving up 78.4 ppg on 46% shooting on the road. 

The other thing you have to keep in mind with the previous result, is UNLV is a completely different team on their home floor. The Rebels are 10-3 at home, compared to a miserable 4-8 on the road.

The books are also tipping their hand in this one. Colorado State has covered 3 straight and won each of their last 2, while UNLV is just 1-3 in their last 4 and failed to cover all 4. Not to mention the Rams won the previous matchup. The fact that this line is 7, is a great indicator that the books are expecting a much different outcome in the rematch. 

Colorado State is just 9-20 ATS in their last 29 off 2 or more consecutive wins, while the Rebels are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games after losing 3 of their last 4 and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after a game where they made 20% or worse of their 3-point attempts. Take UNLV! 

5* NCAAB Big 12 Game of the Year on Iowa State - 

The Cyclones have dropped 3 of their last 4, including a heartbreaking 82-85 overtime loss at Texas Tech last time out. It's the second time they have lost 3 of 4 in conference play and the previous time they responded with a 10-point road win at Kansas State. I expect a similar type of an outcome here against the Longhorns. 

Texas has quietly got a lot better as the season has progressed and it's why they come in having covered 7 straight games. However, this is not a great spot for the Longhorns, as they suffered a crushing defeat at Oklahoma last time out and now have to go into one of the most hostile environments in all of college basketball. 

Iowa State will also be out for revenge from a 91-94 overtime loss at Texas, plus are going to get a huge boost from the return of Jameel McKay, who missed the last two games due to a suspension. I look for the Cyclones to feed off of McKay's energy and cruise to an easy home win. 

Cyclones are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games off a conference loss by 3-points or less and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when revenging a straight up loss as a road favorite. Take Iowa State! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS No Brainer on Notre Dame - 

I believe this line is based off what Louisville has accomplished to this point in the season and not factoring in how difficult it is for the Cardinals to get emotionally invested into playing out the season. Louisville had to feel like they were a legit Final 4 contender before they found out they weren't going to be eligible for postseason play. That's a difficult thing to overcome and head coach Rick Pitino said it best. "This just takes a lot out of you, it really does," when referring to the impact of the postseason ban. 

It's created some exceptional value here with Notre Dame at basically a pick'em at home. The Fighting Irish come into this game off one of their best games of the season in a 89-83 win at Clemson, which followed their 80-76 home win over North Carolina last Saturday. Notre Dame is 12-1 at home and given their recent form, I look for them to have no problem coming away with a win against the Cardinals, who are just 4-4 on the road. 

Louisville is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games when they come in having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Notre Dame! 

5* Dayton/Rhode Island A-10 Game of the Week on Dayton - 

I have no problem backing the Flyers at basically a pick'em on the road against Rhode Island. The fact that the Rams come into this game off back-to-back wins and have a respectable 9-3 record at home, is creating the value with Dayton.

While Rhode Island is 5-1 at home in conference play, all 5 wins have come against teams who have a losing record inside conference play. Their lone loss at home came against St. Joseph's, who is tied for 2nd in the A-10 with VCU at 9-2, 1-game back of Dayton at 10-1. Not only has their home wins in the conference been weak, but the Rams 4 non-conference home wins came against the likes of American, Holy Cross, Houston and Iona. 

Dayton is a legit NCAA Tournament team and right now are looking at being a No. 4 seed. You could argue that this is a look-ahead spot for the Flyers with a road game against St Joseph's on deck, but that just makes this game more important. If Dayton were to lose here, they could potentially go from 1st to 3rd in the A-10 standings. 

Rhode Island is 0-7 ATS this season in games with a line of +3 to -3 and are just 17-33 ATS in their last 50 home games after 15+ games against teams who are outscoring opponents by 4+ ppg. The Flyers on the other hand are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games against strong defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Dayton! 

4* NCAAB Missouri Valley Game of the Week on Evansville - 

Illinois State has won 5 of their last 6 and last time out they upset Wichita State at home 58-53 as a 13-point underdog. The books are begging you take the RedBirds as a big road dog against the Purple Aces, who has failed to cover 4 of their last 6. 

The key here is that this is a huge letdown spot for Illinois State and a closer look shows their win over the Shockers wasn't all that impressive. The Redbirds shot just 27.3% (15-55) from the field in the victory, but managed to go 22 of 26 from the foul line. That's not a recipe for success, especially on the road against a hungry Evansville team that will be looking to build off a dominant 83-64 win at home against Missouri State. 

The Purple Aces won 66-55 at Illinois State earlier this season and it you;d have been a lot worse. Evansville shot 50% from the field, while the Redbirds made just 30.7%. The only thing that kept Illinois State in the game was a ridiculous 19 offensive rebounds, which I'm confident they won't repeat. 

The Redbirds are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games after 2 or more consecutive wins and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers. The Purple Aces are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days and an identical 11-3 ATS in their last 14 when they come in having failed to cover 4 of their last 6. Take Evansville! 

5* Wizards/Bucks NBA Vegas Insider on Bucks -

Milwaukee comes into the final game before the All-Star break having gone just 2-7 in their last 9 games, but that has a lot to do with the schedule. Of the 7 losses, 6 came on the road, where the Bucks are just 7-24 on the season. 

Milwaukee defeated the Celtics 112-111 at home in their last game as a 4-point dog and are 5-1 in their last 6 home games overall with wins over Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta, Orlando and Boston. The Wizards come in off a 111-108 win at New York, but are just 4-8 in their last 12. Washington has been especially bad on the defensive side of things of late, as they are allowing 111.6 ppg over their last 5. I don't see the defensive intensity getting turned up for a road game against the Bucks with the long layoff for the All-Star break on deck. 

Washington is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 off a win by 3 points or less and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 off a road win scoring 110 or more points. The Bucks on the other hand are a dominant 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games after losing at least 4 of their last 6 and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against the Eastern Conference. Take Milwaukee! 

5* NCAAB Big 12 Game of the Month on Iowa State -

Due to the fact that Iowa State won't have suspended center Jameel McKay, I believe we are seeing exceptional value on the Cyclones as a small road favorite against the Red Raiders. Iowa State went on the road and beat Oklahoma State 64-59 without McKay and Stillwater is no easy place to win. 

If the Cyclones want to keep their hopes of a Big 12 regular season title alive, this is a game they simply can't afford to lose. Texas Tech is definitely a team they can beat without McKay, as the Red Raiders are just 2-8 over their last 10 with the only wins during this stretch coming against TCU and at home against Oklahoma State by a mere 2-points. 

Cyclones are 8-1 ATS over the last 2 seasons in games with a line of +3 to -3 and 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games against a team with a winning home record. Texas Tech is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a SU loss, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a dog and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Iowa State! 

4* Baylor/K-State NCAAB ATS Heavy Hitter on Baylor +

The books are begging for you take Kansas State as a small home favorite, but I think the real value here is on Baylor. The Bears are still in the hunt for the Big 12 title and simply can't afford to lose this game after dropping their last 2. Baylor is 6-4 in league play and their 4 losses have all come against other top teams in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and West Virginia. The Wildcats aren't in that class, as they are just 3-7 in the Big 12. 

Kansas State does come into this game off a huge 80-69 win at home against Oklahoma, but that is a big reason why I like the Bears in this matchup. It's going to be extremely hard for the Wildcats to bounce back from that big win. Keep in mind they have not won consecutive games since late December and that includes a 13-point loss at home to Iowa State off a 13-point home win against Texas Tech. 

Baylor has won 4 of the last 5 games in the series, including a 79-72 win at home earlier this season. The Bears are a perfect 3-0 ATS this season after playing their previous game as a road dog and 2-0 ATS off a road loss by 10 or more points. Take Baylor! 

4* NBA Sharp Money Vegas Insider on Grizzlies -

Memphis is showing some great value here as the books have adjusted this line with the recent news that the Grizzlies will be without center Marc Gasol. Memphis is also showing value here due to the fact that they come in having lost 2 straight, while the Nets have won 2 of 3. 

The thing to keep in mind is that both of the losses the Grizzlies have suffered in their last 2 games have come in overtime. Prior to that this team had won 11 of 13. Their two-game skid is also the first time 6 weeks they dropped consecutive games. With this being the final game for Memphis prior to the All-Star break, I look for the Grizzlies to come out extremely motivated to get a win. 

While Memphis will want to finish strong going into the break, the Nets' players likely can't wait for the long layoff. I just don't see Brooklyn being able to match the intensity of the Grizzlies in this game and wouldn't be surprised if they threw in the towel early. 

Nets are just 13-26 ATS in their last 39 when they come in having won 2 of their last 3 games and are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 against a team with a winning record. The Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 against the Eastern Conference. Take Memphis! 

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Kings - 

There's been plenty of negative talk surrounding the Kings with the news that head coach George Karl was going to be fired, only to come out a few days later and say they are sticking with him. Sacramento is desperate for a win, as they have lost 4 straight and 8 of 9 overall. I look for an inspired effort here from the Kings against the 76ers, who beat them on their home floor back in late December. 

The 76ers have been playing better of late, but this is not a good spot for Philadelphia with the All-Star break on deck after this game. Not to mention the 76ers are coming off an emotional loss at home to the Clippers, where they blew a 19-point lead in a 92-98 overtime defeat. It's a similar spot to when they lost on a last second shot at home against the Warriors on 1/30 and came out in their next game and got destroyed by the Hawks 124-86. 

Road teams who are averaging 102+ ppg against an opponent that only averages between 92-98 ppg are 46-19 (71%) ATS after 42+ games and off a loss by 15 or more points. Take Sacramento! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Providence -

The Friars are showing great value here as a small road favorite against Marquette. Both teams come into this game having lost 2 straight, but we are seeing a lower line than we should due to the fact that Providence lost by 12 as a 4.5-point dog at home to Villanova last time out, while the Golden Eagles covered in a 8-point loss as a 12.5-point dog at Xavier. 

Providence comes into this game having gone 8-2 SU and ATS on the road this season and are going to be highly motivated for this matchup, as they will be out for revenge from a 64-65 home loss to Marquette earlier this season. Keep in mind that the Golden Eagles were 10-point road dogs in that matchup, which means they should be around a 6-7 points dog at home. 

Marquette is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 after 2 straight conference losses, 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games, 1-8 ATS at home as a dog of 6 or less and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 home games after playing their previous game as a road underdog. The Friars are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 revenging a loss and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after playing their previous game at home. Take Providence! 

3* NCAAB Late Night ATS Bailout on New Mexico -

The Lobos are showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Aggies. New Mexico is going to come out extremely motivated after letting one slip away in Saturday's 71-78 loss at San Diego State. Prior to that the Lobos had won 4 straight and it's also worth noting that they dominated Utah State at home 77-59 (led 43-18 at half) earlier this season. 

The Aggies haven't exactly been playing well of late. Utah State has lost 5 straight and are just 3-8 inside league play. In their last two home games the Aggies lost 84-89 as a 5.5-point favorite against Nevada and 68-80 to UNLV as a 3-point dog. 

Utah State is just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 off a road loss, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record. Lobos are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 after playing their previous game on the road and 13-4 in their last 17 after playing a game as a road dog. They are also a dominant 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games with a line of +3 to -3. Take New Mexico! 

5* NBA No Limit TNT Total Top Play on Spurs/Heat UNDER 

The books have set the mark too high for this TNT showdown between the Heat and Spurs. These are two of the top defensive teams in the NBA. Miami comes in allowing just 95.3 ppg and rank 6th in defensive efficiency. The Spurs are giving up just 92.8 ppg and lead the league in defensive efficiency. 

San Antonio has held 3 of their last 4 opponents to 97 or less points, while the Heat have score 98 or fewer in each of their last 3. The fact that this game is being played in Miami is key, as that should allow the Heat to control the tempo and only the Jazz play at a slower pace than the Heat. Both meetings last year saw fewer than 184 points and each of the last 4 in the series have finished with 193 or less. 

UNDER is 21-9 in the Spurs last 30 road games after going over the total in their previous game and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 off a home win where they failed to cover as a favorite. UNDER is also 14-4 in Miami's 18 games this season when listed as an underdog and 7-0 in their last 7 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take the UNDER! 

4* W Virginia/Kansas NCAAB Vegas Insider on Kansas -

This is going to seem like a big number for the Jayhawks to be laying at home against the Mountaineers, but I really like Kansas to win and win big in this spot. The Jayhawks come into this game having won 3 straight and will be all business given how much this game means to the Big 12 regular season title and the fact that they want revenge from a 11-point loss at West Virginia earlier this season. 

The Mountaineers come in this game off back-to-back huge wins at Iowa State (81-76) and at home against Baylor (69-80), but we also saw them recently lose at Florida by 17 points. West Virginia isn't nearly as strong on the road as they are at home and Kansas has one of the best home court advantages in the country. 

West Virginia is just 14-31 ATS in their last 45 road games off 2 straight conference wins and 19-35 ATS in their last 54 road games off a conference win by 10 or more. Jayhawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 75+ in two straight games and 14-5 ATS in their last 19 off a win by 15 or more points. Take Kansas! 

4* Notre Dame/Clemson Late Night ATS Bailout on Clemson - 

The Tigers are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Fighting Irish. Clemson is being undervalued here off a 57-60 road loss at Virginia Tech as a 2.5-point favorite, while Notre Dame is getting a lot of respect here off a 80-76 upset win at home against No. 2 North Carolina as a 2.5-point dog. 

Clemson is a perfect 5-0 at home inside ACC play and it's not like they have played a soft schedule on their home floor. The Tigers 5 conference home wins have come against the likes of Florida State, Louisville, Duke, Miami and Pittsburgh. The Irish are a dominant 12-1 at home, but just 4-6 on the road and have not fared well away from home of late. Notre Dame lost 70-79 at Miami in a game that wasn't that close and prior to that lost 66-81 at Syracuse. 

Irish are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 after playing 2 straight games as an underdog. Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU loss, 8-1 ATS in their last 9 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Take Clemson! 

5* Bulls/Hornets NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bulls +

Chicago comes into this game having lost 2 straight and 4 of their last 5 overall, plus are not expected to have the services of All-Star Jimmy Butler. I believe oddsmakers have drastically inflated this line because of this and thus the Bulls are showing some great value here against the Hornets. Keep in mind that Chicago was a 3.5-point favorite earlier this season at Charlotte. As good as Butler is, he's not worth 9.5-points. 

Whenever a team is missing a key player like the Bulls will be tonight, that takes away from the focus and intensity of the other team. I just don't see the Hornets being as focused for this game as you would expect and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Chicago won this game outright. 

Road teams that have allowed 100+ points in 4 straight games against an opponent off a win by 6 or less are 49-30 (62%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. At the same time, Favorites off a win by 6 or less against an opponent off 3 straight games with a combined score of 205 or more points are just 22-50 (31%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Chicago! 

3* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Magic +

The Magic and Hawks will play a home-and-home set starting with today's game in Orlando, followed by tomorrow's game in Atlanta. Knowing that they are going to get the Magic at home in their next game and this being Super Bowl Sunday, I just don't see the Hawks being all that interested in this game. Orlando on the other hand is desperate for a win right now. 

The Magic have been playing better of late, but simply were outmatched against three of the top four teams in the west in the Spurs, Thunder and Clippers. Last time out  Orlando lost 93-107 at home to the Clippers as a 3.5-point dog, while the Hawks won 102-96 as a 5-point home favorite against the Pacers. The fact that the Magic are now an even smaller home dog, says a lot about what the books are expecting here, as the public will be all over the Hawks. 

Magic are a dominant 9-1 ATS this season after playing their previous game as a home underdog, while the Hawks are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 road games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who average 83 or more shots per game and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Orlando! 

4* Miami/Georgia Tech NCAAB Vegas Insider on Georgia Tech +

The Yellow Jackets are one of the most underrated teams in the ACC. While Georgia Tech is just 2-7 in conference play, all 7 losses have come by 9-points or less, with 5 of those coming by 5 points or fewer. Both conference wins have come at home, including a 68-64 win against Virginia as a 6-point dog. 

Miami comes into this game off an impressive 79-70 win at home against Notre Dame and are 6-3 in the ACC, but just 1-3 on the road with the only road win coming against Boston College. Last time they played on the road they were embarrassed by NC State 85-69. 

Hurricanes are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 as a road favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record. Yellow Jackets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 off a SU loss, 14-5 ATS in their last 19 off 2 straight conference losses and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when they come in having lost 4 of their last 5. Take Georgia Tech! 

4* Thunder/Warriors NBA Vegas Insider on Thunder +

I like the value we are getting with the Thunder as near double-digit road dogs against the Warriors. While Golden State and San Antonio have been getting all the attention for their amazing starts to the season and rightfully so, the Thunder have quietly put together a great season. Oklahoma City is 38-13 and come in having won 12 of their last 13. 

I'm not saying the Thunder are going to pull off the outright upset and end the Warriors 40-game home winning streak, but I don't think it's out of the question. Oklahoma City has two of the best players in the game in Durant and Westbrook and a supporting cast that can matchup with whatever the Warriors throw at them. If there's one player that can give Curry some trouble, Westbrook is the guy and most importantly he's going to make Curry work on the defensive end. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing the Thunder. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who average 99 or more points/game against an opponent that has scored 105 or more in 5 straight games are 44-15 (75%) ATS since 1996 with a perfect 4-0 ATS record so far in the 2015-16 season. Take Oklahoma City! 

4* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Colorado +

I really like the situation here with the Buffaloes catching points on the road against the Beavers. Oregon State comes into this game off a huge 71-69 home win over Utah, while Colorado enters off an embarrassing 20-point loss at Oregon. This is a huge letdown spot for the Beavers and an even bigger bounce back spot for the Buffaloes. 

Oregon State's win over the Utes wasn't their first big home win in conference play. The Beavers have also knocked off Oregon, Cal and USC at home. While that could be taken as a sign to go against the Buffaloes, the Beavers have followed up each of those big home wins with a loss. Colorado on the other hand has not lost back-to-back games in the Pac-12 and followed each of their previous 2 defeats in conference play with a win on the road the next time out. 

Buffaloes are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after a game where they failed to cover the spread, while Oregon State is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a cover and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off an upset win as a home dog. Take Colorado! 

4* NCAAB Prime Time ATS Annihilator on Baylor +

The Bears are showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Mountaineers. West Virginia is getting a lot of respect here after their impressive 81-76 win at Iowa State, but I look for them to struggle to put away Baylor by more than the number listed here. The Bears have owned the Mountaineers of late. They have won 4 straight and 7 of the last 8 in the series. The only loss being a 2-point loss at home back in 2014. 

This is also a tough spot for West Virginia. They invested a lot into beating the Cyclones and will have a hard time not looking ahead to Tuesday's huge showdown at Kansas, which could be the game that decides the Big 12 regular season title.

At the same time, Baylor is in a prime bounce back spot, as they lost 59-67 at home to Texas last time out. The Bears shot just 35.2% from the field in that game, which is uncharacteristic, as they are shooting 46.7% from the field on the season. It's also worth noting the Bears have won 3 straight on the road, with impressive wins at both Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Take Baylor! 

5* NCAAB SEC Game of the Month on Vanderbilt -

The Commodores come into this game off their best game in quite some time, as they rolled No. 8 Texas A&M 77-60 at home on Thursday. That's the kind of win that can really light a fire under a team and I look for Vanderbilt to ride that momentum with another big time performance on the road against Ole Miss. 

The key here is that even with the win, the Commodores are still showing value due to their poor play against the spread prior to the victory. Even with the cover against the Aggies, Vanderbilt is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10. Ole Miss comes in off a road win over Missouri and have covered 3 of their last 4, which is also helping this line. 

While the Commodores are just 3-7 on the road this season, that's more of a result of the talent they have had to play away from home. Vanderbilt's 7 road losses have come against Kansas, Baylor, Purdue, Arkansas, South Carolina, Kentucky and Texas. The Rebels are simply not in that class of talent and while they are 8-2 at home, they haven't beat anyone at home as good as Vanderbilt and have lost 2 of their last 3 with defeats to Florida and South Carolina. 

Commodores are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games after winning 2 of their last 3 games, while the Rebels are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games off a win and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games off a win by 6 points or less. Take Vanderbilt! 

4* NBA Situational Vegas Insider on Rockets - 

I really like the value we are getting here with the Rockets as a relatively small home favorite against the Trail Blazers. While Portland lost 103-110 at home in their last game against the Raptors, that's not considered a bad loss given how Toronto has played. The Trail Blazers are still being overvalued due to previously having won 5 straight and 9 of their last 11. 

The big key here is that Portland just took advantage of a 7-game homestand and now hit the road for the first time since Jan. 18. I just don't see the Trail Blazers bringing the intensity needed to keep this game close, especially when they know in the back of their minds that they get the Rockets at home on Wednesday. 

Portland is also not a great road team, especially when going up against a above average team. The Trail Blazers are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Rockets on the other hand are are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games off a road win, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games against at team with a losing road record and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Houston! 

5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Cavs - 

This may seem like a big number for Cleveland to be laying against a Celtics team that has won 7 of their last 8, but I don't see Boston being able to contain the Cavaliers in this one. The Celtics recent surge has primarily come against bad teams, as 6 of the 7 wins came against the 76ers, Wizards, Nuggets, Magic, Knicks and Pistons. 

Cleveland isn't going to take this game lightly after an embarrassing 97-106 loss at Charlotte with the Hornets playing without Kemba Walker. Returning home should do the trick for the Cavs, where they are a dominant 19-3 at home this season and off a 14-point win against the Spurs in their last home game. Cleveland also won by 12 at Boston earlier this season. 

Celtics are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Cavaliers are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 against team with a winning record and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games after a contest where they were out rebounded by 20 or more. Take Cleveland! 

3* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Clippers -

This is a big bounce back game for Los Angeles after a lackluster performance at home in a 102-108 loss to the Timberwolves as a 10.5-point favorite. That defeat didn't sit well with leader Chris Paul and you can be assured the Clippers will come out with a different mentality against the Magic tonight. 

Orlando on the other hand is coming into this game off a crushing 114-117 loss at Oklahoma City, where they failed to score over the final 2 minutes and 31 seconds. Those kind of defeats are not easy to bounce back from and the Magic haven't exactly been playing well of late. Orlando is just 1-10 in their last 11 and 2-15 in their last 17. 

Clippers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games as a favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, winning on average by 8.4 ppg. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss, 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 against the Eastern Conference and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after a game they failed to cover the spread. Magic are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after scoring 100+ and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 following a SU loss. Take Los Angeles! 

4* NBA Big Money Revenge Game of the Week on Hawks - 

I really like the value we are getting Atlanta in this spot. The Hawks are going to come into this game with a chip on their shoulder after dropping each of the first two meetings against the Pacers this season, including a 19-point defeat in the most recent matchup on 1/28. Key thing to keep in mind is both of those games were on the road in Indiana. Atlanta is a much stronger team at home, where they are 16-8 and they swept their two home games against the Pacers last year, winning by an average of 14.5 ppg. 

Indiana comes into this game off a 14-point win at Brooklyn, but that's nothing to get excited about. The Pacers have been struggling for about a month now, as they are just 4-7 in their last 11 games. With Paul George struggling to find his shot and the Hawks having shot 52% or better in each of their last two, I just don't see Indiana putting up much of a fight in this one. 

Pacers are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win by more than 10-points and 11-24 in their last 35 road games in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 years. Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against at team with a losing road record and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games when revenging a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. Take Atlanta! 

5* UCLA/USC Pac-12 Vegas Insider Top Play on USC -

The Trojans went on the road and dominated UCLA 89-75 back on 1/13 and I look for USC to have no problem winning and covering at home in the rematch. One win over the Bruins isn't going to satisfy the Trojans in this rivalry, as UCLA had won each of the 6 previous meetings. This time around it's USC that's the better team. 

Just playing at home is enough to back the Trojans in this spot. USC is a perfect 13-0 at home, outscoring opponents by 17.6 ppg. They have only played 4 conference home games to this point and 3 of those have come by double-digits. The only exception being an overtime win against a really good Arizona team. UCLA on the other hand is just 4-6 on the road with a 1-3 record away from home in the Pac-12. The only win coming against Oregon State, who is just 3-6 in league play. 

UCLA is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games against a team that's won between 60% and 80% of their games over the last 2 seasons. The Bruins are also 0-8 ATS in their last 8 against up-tempo teams averaging 62 or more shots/game and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 against teams averaging 84 or more points/game. Trojans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning record, 11-1 ATS in their last 12 after playing a game at home and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a home win by 10 or more. Take USC! 

4* Raptors/Blazers NBA ATS No Brainer on Raptors + 

I believe we are seeing great value here with Toronto at basically a pick'em on the road against the Trail Blazers. Portland is getting a lot of respect from the books due to having won 5 straight, but it's not as impressive as it looks. All 5 wins came at home against teams with a winning record. When actually facing a quality opponent, the Blazers have struggled, going just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games.

Toronto suffered an ugly loss at Denver on Monday, but came back the next night with a 104-97 win at Phoenix and are now 12-1 over their last 13 games. It's not secret that the Raptors are led by their backcourt duo of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan and I look for these two to take this matchup personal with all the talk about how good the Blazers backcourt of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum is.

Portland is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 when they come in having covered 4 of their last 5 games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off 5 or more consecutive wins and 1-3 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less. Take Toronto!

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Creighton +

The Bluejays are showing great value here as a big time dog on the road against Villanova. Creighton is going to come into this game with a chip on their shoulder off back-to-back losses at Georgetown and at home against Seton Hall. The Bluejays gave away a big lead late against the Hoyas and that loss clearly had an effect on their energy level against the Pirates. 

Villanova is a great team, but they aren't exactly playing their best basketball at the movement. The Wildcats followed up a shocking 76-82 home loss to Providence with a 68-53 win at St Johns. Winning by 15-points looks good on paper, but that wasn't a great showing by Villanova.

With Daniel Ochefu still out with a concussion, I don't see the Wildcats turning this one into a blowout. Ochefu played a huge role in Villanova's 14-point win earlier this season, scoring 19 points on 9 of 10 shooting and grabbing 7 rebounds. it also helps negate the likely absence of Creighton center Geoffrey Groselle. 

Bluejays are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games after playing 3 or more conference games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6. Villanova is 6-16 ATS in their last 22 after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against at team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Creighton! 

4* Pistons/Celtics NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Pistons + 

This is going to seem like a small number for the Pistons to be laying at home against the Celtics, who have won 6 of their last 7, but Detroit is catching Boston in a great spot. The Celtics will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 6th game overall in their last 10. Boston is also in a huge lookahead spot with a showdown at Cleveland on deck. 

Detroit is a team that when they come to play are more than capable of winning on the road against a team like Boston. In fact, they already have a road win over the Celtics, defeating them 99-94 back on 1/6. Detroit has taken 2 of 3 in the series overall this season. 

Pistons are 28-14 ATS in their last 42 when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3 and a dominant 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after playing their previous game as a road favorite. Boston on the other hand is a miserable 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games against strong rebounding teams who are outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game. Take Detroit! 

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on 76ers +

The public will be all over Atlanta in this one, as the Hawks have destroyed the 76ers in their two previous meetings this series, winning 127-106 at home on 12/16 and 126-98 at Philadelphia on 1/7. However, I don't think it's going to be as easy this time around. Atlanta is not playing great basketball at the moment, as they are just 2-5 in their last 7 and just 1-4 in their last 5 on the road. 

Philadelphia is a miserable 7-41 overall, but have been playing much better of late. The 76ers are a much more respectable 6-11 over their last 17 and will be playing with a ton of confidence after a near upset at home of the Warriors last time out (lost 105-108 on last second shot). Philadelphia will also have fresh legs off a 2-day break, while Atlanta will be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 nights. 

Hawks are just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 after playing their previous game against the Western Conference and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a losing home record. The 76ers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a losing road record and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 off a cover where the team lost outright as an underdog. Take Philadelphia! 

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Arkansas +

The Razorbacks are showing big time value here against the Gators. Florida is simply getting way to much respect due to their 17-point blowout win at home against West Virginia last time out. This is a huge letdown spot for the Gators, who will have a hard time not looking ahead to Saturday's huge showdown at Kentucky. 

Arkansas on the other hand comes into this game off back-to-back wins over Texas A&M and Texas Tech at home. I believe that victory over the Aggies last week was the kind of win that can spark a big run for the Razorbacks. Arkansas is playing with tremendous confidence and I look for them to be the more motivated team in this one. Would not surprise me at all if the pulled the outright upset. 

The Gators are just 7-16 ATS in their last 23 off a win and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of 2 straight games. Razorbacks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 against a team with a winning record. It's also worth noting the underdog has cashed in each of the last 4 meetings in the series. Take Arkansas! 

5* ACC Game of the Month on Miami - 

We are seeing great value here on the Hurricanes off an ugly 69-85 loss at NC State last time out. Not only is that loss playing into this favorable line, but the fact that Notre Dame is off a 23-point win over Wake Forest and have won 5 of their last 6 is creating value. 

I wasn't all that surprised to see the Hurricanes struggle on the road against the Wolfpack, as they were coming off a huge 80-69 win at home against Duke in the previous game. That loss will have Miami re-focused for a big showdown against the Fighting Irish at home, where they are 10-1 on the season and a perfect 4-0 inside ACC play. It's also worth noting that all 4 home wins in conference play have come by double-digits. Notre Dame won at Duke not that long ago, but they have also lost by 11 at Virginia and 15 at Syracuse and are just 4-5 away from home overall. 

The Irish are just 5-18 ATS in their last 23 off a conference win by 20 or more points and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. The Hurricanes are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 2 seasons why they come in having failed to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7. Take Miami! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Duke -

The Blue Devils have lost 4 of 5 and fallen out of the Top 25, which in turn has created exceptional value here with Duke laying a small number on the road against the Yellow Jackets. While things haven't gone the Blue Devils way of late, this is still an elite team in my eyes and you can't overlook the fact that 3 of their 4 losses during this current stretch have come by 5 points or less. 

Georgia Tech is a quality team, but are also struggling to find ways to win. The Yellow Jackets are an identical 1-4 in their last 5 games and just 2-6 in ACC play overall. A key advantage here for Duke is they haven't played since last Monday and with how bad they have been playing, there's no question that it's been a hard week of practice. This is a statement game for Duke, who has a chance to get things back on track with 3 straight at home after this contest. 

Duke is 60-40 (60%) ATS in their last 100 after failing to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 after failing to cover in their last game and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers.  Take Duke -3.5! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Top Play on Michigan - 

The Wolverines are showing exceptional value here as a small home favorite against the Hoosiers. Indiana comes into this game tied with Iowa a top the Big 10 standings at 8-1, but a lot of that has to do with a soft schedule to start out conference play. Indiana just recently lost at Wisconsin and were nearly upset at home against Minnesota in their last game. 

The Hoosiers are simply overvalued right now and should be a bigger dog than we see here against a Michigan team that is playing some of it's best basketball of the season. The Wolverines have won 4 straight and are a quiet 7-2 in league play with their only 2 losses coming on the road against Iowa and Purdue. This is a team that beat Maryland at home and comes into this game 11-1 on their home floor this season. This is a statement game for the Wolverines and I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up running away with this game. 

Indiana is just 0-6 ATS on the road over the last 2 seasons after playing 4 straight games as a favorite, while the Wolverines are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games after 15+ games against a top caliber team, who is outscoring opponents by 12+ ppg. Take Michigan! 

4* Celtics/Knicks NBA ATS No Brainer on Celtics -

The Celtics are showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Knicks. Boston had their 5-game winning streak snapped in Sunday's 114-119 loss at Orlando, but that was a tough spot for the Celtics. Boston had just defeated the Magic in their previous game at home by 19-points and simply weren't able to match the intensity of Orlando in the rematch. I look for that loss to serve as a wake-up call and for the Celtics to return back to the form that saw them win 5 straight. 

New York on the other hand hasn't been playing well. The Knicks have lost 4 of 5 and are coming off a ugly 95-116 loss at home to the Warriors last time out. New York did beat Boston at home 120-114 in the most recent matchup back on 1/12, but that's actually a positive. 

The Celtics are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games revenging a loss to an opponent, where they allowed 100 or more points and 14-2 ATS in their last 16 road games revenging a road loss to an opponent. 

We also find a strong system in play, as Road favorites revenging a straight up loss as a road favorite and off a loss as a favorite in their last game are 77-40 (66%) ATS since 1996. Take Boston! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Raptors/Nuggets OVER

I look for the Nuggets and Raptors to cruise past the total set for this matchup. These two teams have a history of high-scoring games, as 6 of the last 7 in the series have eclipsed the mark set by the oddsmakers. That includes a 106-105 game earlier this season that had a total of just 189.5. 

The Raptors come into this game clicking on all cylinders offensively. Toronto has scored 100+ points in 9 straight games and should have no problem extending that streak to 10 against a Nuggets team that has allowed 100+ points in 8 straight games. It's also important to note that Denver is playing very well on the offensive end right now as well, the Nuggets have scored 100+ in 8 straight. Toronto has a good defense, but just allowed 107 in their last game against the Pistons and I don't see the defensive intensity being there with this being their first road game after a lengthy 7-game homestand. 

OVER is 10-3 in the Raptors last 13 against an opponent that scored 100 or more in their last game, 23-8 in their last 31 road games after a combined score of 205+ in their last game and 7-1 in their last 8 against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 6-1 in the Nuggets last 7 home games, 10-1 in their last 11 home games with a total of 200 to 209.5 and 4-0 in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the OVER! 

5* Mavs/Hawks NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on UNDER 

I'm expecting a very slow pace and strong defensive intensity from both teams in this one. Dallas isn't going to be looking to run, as they will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 5th in the last 7 days overall. However, the Mavericks do figure to come to play, as they will be out for revenge from a 95-98 loss at home earlier this season. 

Atlanta will also be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set after playing yesterday in Miami. This will also be the Hawks 4th game in 6 days. Atlanta has lost 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall, so we have every reason to expect them to show up with a lot of intensity defensively to get a win. Note that during this 6-game stretch only 1 of those came at home and that was an extremely low-scoring game against the Clippers (83-85). 

It's also important to note that both offenses come in struggling right now. The Mavericks have scored 92 or fewer in 3 of their last 4, while the Hawks have scored 95 or fewer in 5 of their last 6. Dallas has held each of their last 2 opponents under 80 points and Atlanta has allowed 86 or less in each of their last 3 home games. 

UNDER is 25-14 in the Mavericks last 29 after 2 or more consecutive games that finished under the total, 5-1 in their last 6 when their starters combine for 160 or more minutes the previous day and 8-2 in their last 10 road games. UNDER is also 4-1 in the Hawks last 5 against the Western Conference, 8-3 in their last 11 against a team with a winning record and 23-9 in their last 32 home games off 2 straight road losses by 10 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

4* UNC/Louisville NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Louisville -

The fact that the Cardinals are favored after getting embarrassed at home by highly ranked Virginia (47-63) on Saturday, really says a lot about what the oddsmakers are expecting from Louisville in a huge bounce back spot tonight. The public is going to be all over North Carolina, who has won 12 straight and yet to lose in conference play (8-0). 

The Cardinals simply couldn't have played any worse against Virginia. They shot just 32.7% from the field, while allowing the Cavaliers to shoot 57.8%. I fully expect them to rebound with one of their best performances of the season in what is a huge statement game for the Cardinals. While North Carolina is also a highly ranked opponent, they aren't near as good defensively as Virginia. The Tar Heels come in allowing 74.4 ppg on the road. 

Another big factor here is that North Carolina's 12-game winning streak and perfect 8-0 record in the ACC is largely due to them not being challenged. The Tar Heels haven't faced the likes of Duke, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Notre Dame or Miami in conference play. As a result they haven't been in a lot of close games and I look for them to struggle in their first real test in over a month. 

Tar Heels are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after winning 12 or more of their last 15 and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after winning 15 or more of their last 20. The Cardinals are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 off a loss by 15 or more points and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after failing to cover 8 or more of their last 10. Take Louisville! 

5* Oregon/Arizona St NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Arizona St +

The Sun Devils are showing some great value here as a home dog against the Ducks. Arizona State is a far better team than their 2-6 record inside the Pac-12 would indicate. The Suns Devils all 6 losses have come by 12-points or less and 4 of those by 7 or fewer. Arizona State snapped a 3-game losing streak with a 86-68 win at home over Oregon State on Thursday and I look for them to carry over that momentum with a big win at home against Oregon. 

The Ducks come in having won 3-straight, but are in prime position for a letdown after a huge 83-75 win at Arizona as a 7-point dog. Prior to that Oregon knocked off two other top Pac-12 teams in USC and UCLA at home. Even with the win over the Wildcats, the Ducks are just 4-4 on the road, while Arizona State is a strong 9-3 at home. 

Last time here the Ducks needed overtime to escape with a 68-67 win which was only their 2nd road win in the series since 2010. It's also worth noting the Sun Devils have a history of playing Oregon tough, as each of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 7 or less with the only game decided by more than 3 coming at Oregon.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 off a win by 15 or more against an opponent that has scored 75 or more in 3 straight games are 26-9 (74%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Arizona State! 

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Warriors -

Golden State nearly suffered an unthinkable loss yesterday against the 76ers, as they blew a 24-point lead and needed a last second 3-pointer to secure the win an avoid overtime. That near collapse will certainly get the attention of the Warriors and I look for them to come out an put a beating on the Knicks. 

Regardless of how good the Knicks are or aren't playing, opposing teams really get excited about the opportunity to play in Madison Square Garden. That's especially the case for Western Conference teams, who only get to play here once a season. Anytime there's been reason for Golden State to get excited about playing, they have dominated the opposition. Last year the Warriors won by 14 at New York and the previous year they won by 23. 

While this could be considered a bad spot with the Warriors playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, I don't see it being a problem, as they had 2 days off before their game against the 76ers and will have more 2 days off after this contest. 

Warriors are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 after a game in which they failed to cover the spread, 23-8-1 ATS in their last 32 when playing on no rest and 13-5 in their last 18 road games with a total set at 210 or more. Take Golden State! 

4* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Magic +

This is a great situational spot to back Orlando at home as an underdog. These two teams just played 2 days ago in Boston with the Celtics winning going away 113-94. It's going to be hard for Boston to get excited about playing a team they just beat by 19-points, while Orlando is going to treat this like a must-win situation. 

While Orlando has struggled of late, they have played their best basketball at home, where they are 12-10 on the season, compared to 8-15 on the road. The Celtics have had their struggles of late playing up to their potential against teams who play well at home, as they are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record 

The Magic on the other hand are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs a team with a winning road record and despite the loss to Boston on Friday are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against the Atlantic. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Celtics. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have covered 4 or 5 of their last 6 , who are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) against a marginal losing team are just 9-31 (22%) ATS since 1996. Take Boston!

3* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Pacers - 

This may seem like a big number for Indiana to be laying at home against the Nuggets, but I'm expecting to see the Pacers dominate this one from start to finish. Indiana was just 1-6 over their last 7 before coming out with a dominant performance in a 111-92 win at home against the Hawks on Thursday. I don't see Indiana letting their foot off the gas, especially against a Denver team they recently lost to on the road 126-129. 

This is also a bad spot for Denver, who is not a good road team (9-14). The Nuggets will be playing their 3rd straight away from home in the last 4 days. Denver has also been awful defensively of late, allowing 111.7 ppg over their last 7. Another huge incentive here for the Pacers is they haven't won back-to-back games since early January. I just don't see Indiana overlooking the Nuggets and at the same time this is a game I think Denver isn't going to be all that interested in coming off a win and having just beat the Pacers recently. 

Adding to this is a strong system. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are allowing 103+ ppg against an opponent that just scored 110 or more are just 43-78 (35%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Pacers are also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games against teams who attempt 18 or more 3-pointers/game and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 when they come in having lost 3 of their last 4. Take Indiana! 

4* ISU/Texas A&M NCAAB ATS No Brainer on Texas A&M - 

I think we are getting some exceptional value here on the Aggies as a small home favorite, due to Texas A&M coming into this game off a 71-74 loss at Arkansas, while Iowa State comes in off a 85-72 blowout win against Kansas. What you have to keep in mind is the Cyclones have a huge homecourt advantage and Arkansas is arguably the toughest place to play in the SEC for opposing teams. 

I look for a completely different Texas A&M team at home, where they are a perfect 12-0 this season winning by an average of 20+ ppg. Iowa State is 6-3 on the road, but have lost their two toughest road games against both Oklahoma and Texas. This game simply means more to the Aggies and I believe they are every bit as talented as the Cyclones. 

Iowa State is just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 road games when they come in having covered the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, while the Aggies are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 against teams who shoot 45% or better from the field and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games against teams who average 12 or fewer turnovers/game. Take Texas A&M! 

5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of the Month on Kansas St - 

I really like the value here with the Wildcats at home in a game they desperately need to have. Kansas State has got off to a disappointing 2-6 start in Big 12 play, but this is a much better team than their record would indicate. They are going to be extremely motivated off an ugly 55-70 loss at West Virginia, which they shot just 35% from the field, including a dreadful 5.6% (1 for 18) from long-distance. Prior that loss the Wildcats destroyed Oklahoma State at home 89-73 and I'm expecting a similar type of outcome here. 

Ole Miss comes into this game off a 80-63 blowout win at home against Auburn, but that's nothing to get excited about. The Rebels had lost their previous 4 games, including a 9-point loss at LSU and 6-point defeat at Mississippi State. Ole Miss opened up 10-2 in non-conference play but didn't play anyone. Their best win was against UMass at home and they lost to both George Mason and Seton Hall. 

A huge factor here and why I'm confident laying this number is the Rebels will be missing a huge piece in junior forward sebastian Saiz, who is the only player outside of Stefan Moody that's averaging double figures (12.8 ppg) and is by far the team's leading rebounder (9.8 rpg). Not only his absence big offensively, but it hurts them defensively. 

Kansas State is 23-12 ATS at home over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of nearly 10.0 ppg. The Wildcats are also 9-2 ATS in their last 11 when playing on their 2nd game in a 7-day stretch, 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss. Take Kansas State! 

5* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Rockets/Thunder UNDER 

Due to this matchup featuring two of the more explosive offensive teams and this game being televised on NBATV, I believe we are seeing a drastically inflated total. Oklahoma City is coming off two high-scoring games against the Knicks (128-122) and Timberwolves (126-123), both of which came on the road.

Not a huge surprise to see the Thunder not bring the defensive intensity against below average opponents. They won't have any problem getting motivated against the Rockets on their home floor, as they have lost each of the last 5 meetings in the series. One thing to keep in mind with Oklahoma City is they play much better defensively at home, where they are only giving up 98.0 ppg. 

I'm also expecting a strong defensive effort here from the Rockets, as they are going to be motivated coming off an embarrassing 99-130 loss at San Antonio. The UNDER is 7-3 in the Rockets last 10 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 9-3 in their last 12 against a team with a winning record. 

UNDER is also 15-3 in the Thunder's last 18 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, 9-1 in their last 10 home games after playing their last game as a road favorite and 9-1 in their last 10 home games off a road win where they scored 110 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Magic +

Orlando is showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Celtics. The Magic have really struggled of late and are just 1-11 in the month of January, but could easily have a much better record, as they have struggled to hold on to leads and close out games late. Each of their last 3 losses have come by 7-points or less and they had a 16-point lead last time out against the Bucks. 

Boston comes in having won 4 straight, which is certainly playing into this inflated line. Last time out they failed to cover as a 9.5-point dog against the Nuggets, winning just 111-103. The big key here is the Magic figure to be the more motivated team in this one. Orlando is desperate for a win and comes in on 2 days of rest. Boston on the other hand will be playing their 4th game in the last 6 days and could find it hard to get up for the Magic, knowing they get them again on the road Sunday. 

It's also worth noting that Orland has won 3 of the last 4 in the series and the lone loss came by just 7-points in a game they led by 10-points at the half. Magic are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games after playing 2 straight games as an underdog, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 against the Atlantic and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 on Friday. Boston is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with road winning percentage of 40% or less. Take Orlando! 

4* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Arizona St - 

The Sun Devils are arguably the most underrated team in the Pac-12 right now. Arizona State is just 1-6 in conference games, but could very easily have a winning record. They have lost 4 games by 5-points or less, including 3 straight by 5 or less. This is the definition of a must-win game and I look for the Sun Devils to respond in a big way against the Beavers. 

Oregon State is 3-4 in league play and that's with playing 5 of their first 7 conference games at home. The Beavers lost both of their road games in the Pac-12, including a ugly 54-71 loss at Colorado, which followed a huge 77-71 home win over Cal. We find Oregon State in a very similar spot here, as they come in off a huge 85-70 win at home against USC. On top of that, the Beavers could find themselves overlooking the Sun Devils with an even bigger road game on deck against Arizona on Saturday. 

Beavers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 conference road games, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games off a home win and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games after playing 2 or more consecutive games at home (average loss by 16.3 ppg). Sun Devils on the other hand are a strong 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 following a SU loss. Take Arizona State! 

5* Hawks/Pacers NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Pacers - 

While the Pacers come into this game having lost 3 straight and 6 of their last 7 overall, this team showed signs of turning the corner with Tuesday's heartbreaking 89-91 home loss to the Clippers. I believe we are seeing Indiana greatly undervalued here because of their recent poor stretch. 

Atlanta is also coming off a crushing loss at home to the Clippers, as they lost 83-85 last night to LA. Having to play on no rest is going to be a tall task for the Hawks to overcome against a highly motivated Pacers team. Keep in mind that Atlanta only had 1-day off prior to their game against the Clippers, which followed a 4-game west coast road trip.

It's also important to note that the Pacers already won 93-87 at home against Atlanta this season and despite losing their last 2 at home are a strong 13-7 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Indiana also seems to play their best against the best, as the Pacers are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games against a team with a winning record. They are also 19-9 ATS in their last 28 as a home favorite of 6 or less and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 when playing only their 2nd game in a span of 5 days. Take Indiana! 

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Jazz -  

This might seem like a big number for the Hornets to be catching against the Jazz, as Charlotte comes in having won 3 straight, while Utah has lost 3 of 4, including a 92-95 home loss to Detroit as a 3-point favorite last time out. There's good reason for the Jazz to be favored here by this number and the books are making it clear they think Utah has the advantage in this one.

One of the key factors that the Jazz have in their favor is revenge, as they have not forgot about a 119-124 double-overtime loss at Charlotte last week (1/18). Utah is also going to be motivated off that loss to the Pistons at home, as this is a team that plays it's best basketball on their home floor.

Another big factor here is the Hornets have not had much luck in Salt Lake City. They are 5-20 all-time and have lost 8 straight at Utah in the series. Making matters even worse for Charlotte is this a prime letdown spot after Monday's double-overtime win against the Kings. This will be their 4th road game in a 5-game stretch over an 8-day stretch. I just don't see the Hornets being able to match the intensity of the Jazz in this one.

Jazz are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points and 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 at home against the Hornets. Charlotte is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs a team with a losing record and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 after scoring more than 100 points. Take Utah!

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Hawks - 

Atlanta is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Clippers. The Hawks closed out their 4-game road trip with a convincing 119-105 win at Denver and could easily be riding a 6-game winning streak, as they are 4-2 in their last 6 with 2 losses by a combined 6 points. 

The Hawks are a strong 15-7 at home and this will be taken as an opportunity to make a statement against the surging the Clippers. The big key here is that this is an awful spot for Los Angeles. The Clippers will not only be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but this will be their 5th straight game on the road in the last 7 days. 

Another key factor is I think emotionally the Clippers are going to be drained, as they had to deal with a lot of outside drama with the Blake Griffin deal and came out playing inspired last night against the Pacers. Simply put, Atlanta is going to be the much more motivated team in this one. 

Hawks are 30-14 ATS in their last 44 when they come in having failed to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Clippers on the other hand are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. Take Atlanta! 

5* NCAAB No Limit Top Play on Georgia Tech +

The Yellow Jackets come into this game with a mere 1-5 record inside league play, but could very easily be sitting near the top of the standings. All 5 of Georgia Tech's conference losses have come by 8-points or less and that includes road games at North Carolina, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame. They also come in off a heartbreaking 71-75 home loss to Louisville. This team has proven itself against the top teams and I look for them to take advantage of a soft spot in their schedule here against NC State. 

The Wolfpack have also suffered some close losses, but they have come against weaker competition. The big key here is that we are catching NC State in a prime letdown spot off a huge home showdown against Duke and potentially without their best player in Anthony Barber, who averages 22.1 ppg. Barber is questionable with a knee injury and even if he does play I don't expect him to be his normal self. That's a big problem for the Wolfpack, as they desperately need him to be a major factor offensively to have any chance. If he doesn't end up playing, this game could turn into a blowout quickly. 

Yellow Jackets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss, 14-5 ATS in their last 19 off 2 or more consecutive losses, 12-2 ATS in their last 14 when they have lost 4 of their last 5 and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers. NC State on the other hand is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. Take Georgia Tech! 

4* Kings/Blazers NBA ATS No Brainer on Blazers - 

This may seem like a big number for the Blazers to be laying against the Kings, but it's for good reason. Sacramento is in an awful scheduling spot here. Not only are the Kings playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road after a double-overtime game last night, but this will be their 5th game overall in the last 7 days. 

I just don't see the Kings having the energy here to keep up with the Blazers. Rudy Gay, who scored 20 points last night, isn't expected to play tonight, while both DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rando both logged over 40 minutes against the Hornets. It's also worth noting that in back-to-back games this season the Kings are just 2-9. 

Portland on the other hand comes in off 2 days of rest and will be looking to push the pace to wear down Sacramento and take them out of this game early. The Trail Blazers are also playing some of their best basketball of the season right now. Portland comes in off a 121-103 home win over the Lakers and have won 5 of their last 7. 

Kings are 20-40 ATS in their last 60 road games off a loss by 3-points or less and 15-30 revenging a same season loss to an opponent (lost 94-98 at home to Blazers on 12/27). Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when playing with 2 days of rest. Take Portland! 

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Annihilator on Alabama -

The Crimson Tide are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Volunteers. Alabama has got off to a miserable 1-5 start in SEC play, but their lone win was an impressive 73-50 victory at home against South Carolina. The Crimson Tide did lose their other two road games, but one was against Kentucky and the other was a mere 2-point defeat at home to LSU in their last game. 

Given how things have gone and riding a 3-game losing streak, I look for Alabama to come out and play inspired basketball in front of the home fans against the Volunteers. Tennessee on the other hand is primed for a letdown coming off a huge 78-69 win at home against South Carolina. It's also worth noting that the Volunteers are just 1-7 away from home this season. 

The Crimson Tide are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 when coming in having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off 2 or more consecutive conference losses and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a conference home loss. Take Alabama! 

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Wisconsin +

The Badgers are showing great value here as a home dog against the Hoosiers. Indiana comes into this game riding a 12-game winning streak, which includes a perfect 7-0 start in Big Ten play. What gets overlooked with the Hoosiers strong start is they have played a very favorable conference schedule to this point. They have not played a single game against Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue or Michigan.

They did face Wisconsin earlier this season, but only won 59-58 as a 7.5-point home favorite. I believe the winning streak comes to an end tonight. The Badgers come in off back-to-back impressive wins, defeating Michigan State at home and Penn State on the road. They are just 3-4 in league play, but all 4 losses have come by 6-points or less. 

Wisconsin is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 when revenging a loss of 3-points or less and 31-13 ATS in their last 44 home games against teams shooting 48% or better from the field. Indiana on the other hand is 2-15 ATS in their last 17 road games off a blowout win by 30 or more points and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a conference win by more than 10 points. Take Wisconsin! 

5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Hawks - 

This is a great spot to jump on Atlanta and fade the Nuggets. Denver is getting a lot of love from the books due to covering the spread in each of their last 4 games and 6 of their last 7 overall, but will be outclassed against the Hawks. Atlanta will be all business after an embarrassing 95-98 loss at Phoenix as a 10-point favorite, which followed a 88-91 defeat at Sacramento. The Hawks haven't lost 3 straight since the middle of December and I don't see that streak coming to an end here. 

The Nuggets come into this game off a 104-101 win at home against the Pistons, which they were fortunate to win after trailing by 9 at the half. Fading teams in this spot has been a profitable move over the years, as home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a close home win by 3 or less are just 12-37 (24%) ATS in non-conference games since 1996. 

The Hawks have also been a strong team to back when coming off a game where they lost outright as a favorite. They are 19-9 ATS in this spot over the last 2 seasons and have won these games by an average of 7.4 ppg. It's also worth noting that the Nuggets are just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 home games after allowing 100 or more points in 2 straight games. Take Atlanta! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Magic/Grizzlies UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive battle tonight between the Magic and the Grizzlies. Both of these teams are going to be highly motivated for a win. Memphis comes in off a 101-106 upset loss at Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite, snapping a 4-game winning streak. Orlando lost 116-120 in overtime at home against the Hornets in their last game, where they gave up a 15-point lead with 7:15 left in the 4th quarter. 

Not only will the defensive intensity be there for both teams, but we have two of the slower paced and least efficient offensive teams in the NBA. Memphis ranks 27th in pace and 25th in offensive efficiency, while Orlando is 22nd in pace and 26th in offensive efficiency. I just don't see there being enough offensive possessions for this one to eclipse the mark set. 

UNDER is a perfect 9-0 in the Grizzlies last 9 home games in the 2nd half of the season against a team with a losing record. It's also 9-3 in the Magic's last 12 against a team with a winning record, 23-8 in their last 31 road games after allowing 105 or more points in their last game and 17-4 in their last 21 road games when playing just their 2nd game in the last 5 days. Take the UNDER! 

4* Duke/Miami NCAAB ATS Vegas Insider on Miami - 

Miami is showing some exceptional value here as a small home favorite against the Blue Devils. Duke was able to snap their 3-game skid with a 88-78 win at NC State, covering as a 5-point favorite, but that's nothing to get excited about, as the Wolfpack are just 1-6 inside ACC play. I still think there are major problems with this Duke team, especially as long as Amile Jefferson is sidelined. 

Miami comes in having won 2 straight and are 4-2 inside ACC play. Both losses came on the road against quality opponents in Virginia and Clemson. Most importantly the Hurricanes are a dominant 9-1 at home this season with impressive wins over Florida (66-55), Syracuse (64-51) and Florida State (72-59). Factor in the atmosphere with the opponent being Duke and this game being televised on ESPN and the homecourt advantage should be more than enough to propel Miami to victory. 

The Hurricanes are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 off a home win by 10 or more, 20-8 in their last 28 off a SU win and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Duke is just 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 games on Monday, which are almost always high-profile games. Take Miami! 

4* Clippers/Raptors NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Raptors -

The Raptors are showing some great value here as a mere 2-point home favorite. Toronto isn't a team that gets a whole lot of publicity and have quietly climbed their way near the top of the Eastern Conference, trailing the Cavaliers by just 2.5-games. Their actually tied with the Clippers for the 5th best record in the league and simply should be a bigger favorite at home than what we are seeing here. 

Toronto is 14-6 at home this season and come in having won 7 straight games. The reason this line isn't bigger, is the Clippers have won 12 of their last 14 and are fresh off a 28-point win at New York. The key here is that this will be Los Angeles' third straight game on the road in the last 4 days and that's a tall task to overcome for a west coast team playing all of these road games against Eastern Conference teams. 

Toronto is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against at team that's won more than 60% of their games, while Clippers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 off a SU win by more than 10 points. It's also worth noting the Raptors have won 3 straight in the series, including a 11-point win at Los Angeles back on 11/22. Take Toronto! 

3* NCAAB Situational Undervalued Underdog on Virginia Tech +

The Hokies are showing exceptional value here as a double-digit home dog against the Tar Heels. No question that North Carolina is one of the top teams in the country, but they are way overvalued on the road because of it. While the Tar Heels are 17-2 overall, they are only outscoring opponents by 12.1 ppg in conference play. 

The key here is that Virginia Tech isn't a team that's going to garner North Carolina's full attention, though they should. The Hokies are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are 4-2 in their last 6 games with wins over NC State, Virginia and Georgia Tech. They also just nearly upset Notre Dame on the road as a 13-point underdog (lost 81-83). This is a team playing with a ton of confidence and I fully expect them to be the more motivated team in this one. 

Tar Heels are a mere 2-11 ATS in their last 13 after winning 12 or more of their last 15 games and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after back-to-back wins by 10 or more points. Hokies are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after giving up 80 or more points in their last game, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Virginia Tech! 

4* Pacers/Kings NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Kings - 

Sacramento has quietly moved into the 8th spot in the Western Conference and are simply showing too much value to pass up at home against the Pacers. The Kings come into this game having won 4 straight, including a big home win over the Hawks last time out. 

They catch Indiana in a great spot, as the Pacers are going to have a hard time matching the intensity of the Kings after last night's huge road game against the Warriors. Not only is Indiana playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but this is their 4th road game in a row. You also have to factor in the Pacers aren't playing all that great at the moment. Indiana has lost 4 of their last 5 and are just 7-11 in their last 18 overall. 

It's also important to note that the Kings went into Indiana and beat the Pacers 108-106 earlier this season. Indiana is just 1-8 ATS this season when revenging a home loss, losing by an average of 6.1 ppg. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of the Pacers. Underdogs revenging a loss as a home favorite, who are off a cover where the team lost as an underdog are just 85-133 ATS since 1996. That's a 61% system in favor of the Kings. Take Sacramento! 

4* Maryland/Michigan St NCAAB ATS Vegas Insider on Michigan St - 

The Spartans come into this game having lost 3 straight and as a result are showing exceptional value here as a mere 3.5-point home favorite against Maryland. Michigan State's only bad loss during this stretch came against Iowa, as they had a 1-point loss at Wisconsin (76-77) and 1-point loss at home to Nebraska (71-72). This is is simply too good a team to lose 4 straight, especially playing at home and I fully expect to see the Spartans lay everything on the line in this game. 

Maryland is a talented team and one of the best in the country, but playing on the road in the Big Ten is no easy task no matter how good you are. The Terrapins have struggled in both of their last two road games, barely escaping with a 63-60 win at Wisconsin and then losing at Michigan. Keep in mind last year the Spartans were a mere 1.5-point home favorite against Maryland and absolutely dominated them in a 75-59 win. 

Spartans are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 home games after failing to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4 games, 10-1 ATS in their last 11 off a loss by 6 points or less and 20-9 ATS in their last 29 against teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game. Take Michigan State! 

5* NCAAB Big 12 Game of the Year on Kansas St - 

The Wildcats are showing some great value here even as a 6-point home favorite. After going 10-2 in non-conference play, Kansas State has opened a disappointing 1-5 inside the Big 12, but the big key here is they could just as easily have a winning conference record. They lost in overtime at home to West Virginia and on the road in their last game against Baylor. They also lost by just 3-points at Texas. The other two defeats came against Iowa State and Oklahoma, so there's plenty of reason to expect the Wildcats to bounce back in a big way at home against the Cowboys. 

Oklahoma State is a huge letdown spot after their shocking home win against Kansas last time out and it's important to note that their only other win inside conference play is a home game against TCU. They played Oklahoma tough at home, but have not looked good in their 3 road games, which include blowout losses to both Baylor (62-79) and West Virginia (60-77). Two teams Kansas State easily could have beat. 

Last year the Wildcats won 63-53 at home and took control early with a 31-21 halftime lead. I think it's going to be an even bigger blowout this time around. Wildcats are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 as a home favorite of 6 or less, while Oklahoma State is just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 conference road games and 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games at least 15 games into the season when facing a team with a winning record. Take Kansas State!

4* NBA Situational ATS Heavy Hitter on Rockets -

The Rockets have won 4 straight against the Bucks and are showing some tremendous value here as a mere 3-point home favorite tonight. We are seeing a low line here due to Houston being without Dwight Howard, but it's not like they aren't use to playing without him.

Milwaukee is also getting way too much respect due to coming in having won 3 straight, including back-to-back road games against the Hornets and Heat. Their last win against Miami was a blowout (91-79), but keep in mind the Heat are decimated with injuries right now. Even with those two wins away from home in their last two games, Milwaukee is just 7-18 on the road this season. 

Houston had been playing extremely well prior to dropping 3 of their last 4, as they had won 5 straight. Two of those losses came against two of the top 5 teams in the league in the Cavaliers and Clippers and they simply came out flat last time out against the Bucks. That won't be the case tonight, as I look for the Rockets to bring max effort in this one, as this is a game they know they can't afford to lose. 

Bucks are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 after allowing 85 or less in their last game and a mere 2-14 ATS in their last 16 after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Rockets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games against at team with a losing road record and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Houston! 

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Jazz -

This is a great spot to back Utah as a relatively small road favorite against the Nets. Brooklyn is arguably the worst team in the league and they have shown little to no signs of snapping out of their recent funk since losing starting point guard Jarrett Jack to a season-ending injury. The Nets have lost 9 of their last 10 and are just 4-18 in their last 22 overall. 

Utah is just 18-24 overall, but are a much better team than their record would indicate. If it wasn't for injuries, I strongly believe this team would be at .500 or better. The Jazz have been extremely unfortunate of late, losing 111-118 in overtime last time out at New York, which followed a double-overtime loss at Charlotte. Their loss prior to that was a heartbreaking 2-point defeat to the Kings at home. This team could very easily be 6-1 over their last 7. Regardless, we can expect a pissed off and highly motivated Utah team taking the floor tonight against the Nets and that should be more than enough for them to win here and cover this spread. 

Brooklyn hasn't just been losing games, they have been getting destroyed. Their average loss during their 1-9 recent run has come by 15.3 ppg. Brooklyn is only scoring 94.7 ppg at home and Utah is one of the better defensive teams in the league, especially when Gobert is healthy and controlling the paint. 

Jazz are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 games and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games after a combined score of 205 or more last time out. Nets are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take Utah! 

5* Bulls/Celtics NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Bulls +

Chicago is coming off one of their most embarrassing losses of the season, as they lost 94-125 at home to the Warriors in Wednesday's nationally televised game on ESPN. That loss isn't going to sit well with the Bulls and I look for them to come out inspired against the Celtics tonight. Chicago has responded well in this spot of late, as they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 following a double-digit loss at home. 

Hard to not like their chances given how poorly the Celtics have been playing. Boston is just 4-8 in their last 12 games and two of those wins have come against two of the worst teams in the league right now in the Nets and Suns. Boston did win at home earlier this season, but are just 2-7 in their last 9 games in the series against the Bulls. 

A big reason Boston is struggling right now is there defense, as they come in allowing a staggering 109.4 ppg over their last 5 contests. Last time out they gave up 115 to the Raptors.  That's important to note, as the Celtics are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games after allowing 110 or more points in their previous game. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system in favor of the Bulls. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who trailed in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games are 25-6 (81%) ATS since 1996. Take Chicago! 

4* Grizzlies/Nuggets NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Grizzlies - 

Memphis is finally starting to play up to their potential. The Grizzlies have won 3 straight and 8 of their last 11 overall. Memphis knows that now is their time to make a move in the standings and what I really like about their play of late is they are getting back to being dominant on the defensive end. Since Dec. 14 the Grizzlies are allowing a mere 95.2 ppg. 

Their defense should be more than enough to get a win on the road against the Nuggets, who are just 8-13 at home this season, allowing 105.3 ppg. Denver is getting a lot of love right now due to their recent win at home over the Warriors, but that was simply Golden State overlooking them. That won't be the case with Memphis. It's also worth noting that the Grizzlies have won 6 of the last 8 meetings in the series with 3 straight wins by 7 or more points. 

Memphis does have a losing road record this year, but Denver is just 16-38-3 ATS in their last 57 home games against a team with a losing home record. Nuggets are also just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games after playing 2 straight games where 205 or more combined points were scored. Grizzlies are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 on 2 days of rest, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after failing to cover the spread in their last game. Take Memphis! 

5* NCAAB No Limit Game of the Month on Cal - 

The Golden Bears are showing great value here at home against Arizona State. California is prime for a dominant performance on their home floor tonight. The Golden Bears come into this contest off 3 straight conference losses on the road, but it's important to note that they could have won all 3, as all 3 losses came by 6-points or less. Prior to losing 3 straight on the road, Cal was impressive in blowout home wins over Colorado (79-65) and Utah (71-58).

Needless to say given their 3-game slide, Cal is going to come out as motivated and focused as they have all season. That should be more than enough to win and cover this spread, as the Golden Bears have a great home court advantage. Cal is a perfect 11-0 at home. Arizona State has dropped 3 of their last 4 true road games and are just 1-4 to start out Pac-12 play. 

Sun Devils enter off a 85-89 home loss to Washington and that's important to note. Arizona State is just 11-27 ATS in their last 38 road games off a home loss, 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games after a home game where both teams scored 75 or more and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 road games after a combined score of 155 or more in their last game.

Adding to this is a strong system. Home favorites off 2 or more consecutive losses as a road favorite are 90-42 (68%) ATS since 1997 and are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season. Take California!