5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Jazz/Hornets UNDER

I really like the value here on the total in Wednesday's matchup between the Hornets and Jazz. The strength of both of these teams is their defense. Utah comes in allowing just 94.4 ppg and Charlotte is giving up just 96.5 ppg. Both rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency, as the Hornets are 2nd and the Jazz are 10th.

The key here is that Utah is a team that wants to slow down the pace of the game. In fact, they come in dead last in the NBA in pace at 93.5 possessions per game. I expect them to look to play even slower than normal here, as this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 nights. Note that Charlotte has played just one team in their first 6 games who ranks in the bottom 10 in pace. That's Miami, who is currently 22nd. That game finished with 188 points and both teams shooting 38% or worse from the field.

It's also worth pointing out Utah has played 4 games against teams who rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency. The only one that saw more than 194 points was a game at San Antonio, where the two combined for 197. Utah shot the lights out in that game, hitting 15 3-pointers and shooting 50% from the field. I'll take my chances that doesn't happen here against the Hornets. The other 3 against Top 10 defensive teams saw 186 or fewer points. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Suns +

Phoenix is showing some great value here as a big road dog against the Blazers. Phoenix is just 2-5, but are playing much better of late, taking 2 of their last 3 and are 4-2 ATS in their last 6. Coming in off a double-digit loss to the Lakers, I look for a big bounce back performance from the Suns here. It's a spot they have dominated in under head coach Earl Watson, as they are 13-3 ATS under Watson off a loss by 10 or more.

This is also a tough spot for the Blazers. Portland just finished up a 3-game road trip and will be home for just one game before heading to Los Angeles to face the Clippers tomorrow. A game they are going to have a tough time not looking ahead to, as they haven't forgot about a ugly 12-point home loss to the Clippers earlier this season.

Phoenix has had the Blazers number of late, as they are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The Underdog in this series is also 10-4 ATS in the last 14. A big part of that is the Suns matchup well with Portland, as the Blazers are a very guard-oriented team. Phoenix has 3 really good guards of their own in Bledsoe, Knight and Boooker. Keep in mind Lillard is coming in a bit banged up, as he's dealing with nagging injuries to both his ankle and thumb. Take Phoenix!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Wolves -

Minnesota comes into this game at 1-4 SU and ATS and fresh off a 20-point loss at Oklahoma City, yet are laying points on the road against a Nets team that has gone 5-1 ATS to start the season. I think it's for good reason, as this Timberwolves team is on the verge of breaking out. They have played much better than their record would indicate. They have blown double-digit leads in 3 of their 4 losses.

One of the big reasons that Brooklyn is off to such a strong start against the number, is this team is playing extremely hard and opposing teams just aren't giving them the respect they deserve. That's not going to be the case here with Minnesota, as they have to feel like this is a must-win game.

The Timberwolves will once again be without starting point guard Ricky Rubio, but this is a good matchup here, as the Nets are minuts their top two point guards in Jeremy Lin and Greivis Vasquez. They will once again have to send out rookie Isaiah Whitehead at the point. Look for Minnesota rookie point guard Kris Dunn to have a breakout performance here in what should be a blowout win for the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

4* NBA Undervalued Underdog on 76ers +

Philadelphia is showing some great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Jazz. While the 76ers are 0-5, they have been competitive in a number of their games, especially at home. They only lost by 6 at home to OKC, by 2 at home to Orlando and most recently by just 1 to the Cavaliers. They likely are another year away from really getting things going in the right direction, but they are clearly better than they have been the last two years. I expect them to continue to play extremely hard at home, as they desperately want that first win of the season.

The key here is that this is a tough spot for the Jazz. Utah will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, as they just played in New York yesterday. It's also their 3rd game in the last 4 days and 5th in the last 7 days. Utah did just get back Gordon Hayward, but are without both Boris Diaw and Alec Burks and starting point guard George Hill is questionable with a hand injury. Hill would be a big loss, as he's really started out strong, averaging 20.4 ppg and 5.0 apg.

The 76ers have been a great bet against the Western Conference, as they are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 non-conference games. They are also 35-19 ATS in their last 54 against teams who force 12 or less turnovers/game. Take Philadelphia!

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Hawks -

The perception here is that Atlanta isn't going to have the legs to keep up with the Rockets, as the Hawks will be playing on short rest, but I don't think that's going to be the case. This game has a special meaning for the Hawks, as free agent pickup Dwight Howard goes against his old team in Houston. I expect the Hawks to dig deep here and lay it all on the line for their new teammate, much like we saw Thursday with Durant and the Warriors going up against OKC and again last night with Rose and Noah returning to Chicago.

Let's also not overlook the fact that Atlanta has won 5 straight in the series over Houston, including a 12-point win the last time they hosted the Rockets. I also think we see an edge here with the Hawks after losing 2 straight. This is a much better team than people realize. They are T-2nd in defensive efficiency and 11th in offensive efficiency. Houston isn't exactly in the best spot either, as this will be their 3rd straight on the road after two big games at Cleveland and New York. It's also their 5th road game in their first 6 overall.

Hawks are 50-28 (64%) ATS under Budenholzer when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and 35-18 (66%) ATS in their last 53 when facing an up-tempo team (83 or more shots/game). Take Atlanta!

5* NBA Situational No Limit Top Play on Lakers +

I really like the value here with the Lakers as a double-digit home dog. This is a massive letdown spot for the Warriors, who just played at home last night against the Thunder. A game they have had circled since the schedule was released, as it was Durant's first game against his old team after leaving OKC for Golden State in the offseason. You could see the emotion they invested in that game and it's going to be really hard for them to bring anywhere close to that intensity on the road against a Lakers team that isn't perceived to be any good.

The thing is, this Lakers team is better than they get credit for. They play really hard and have some nice young talent that can score the basketball. They also come in with some confidence, after closing out their 4-game road trip with a 123-116 win at Atlanta, who had previously been unbeaten.

We also find a great system in play going against the Warriors in this spot. Road favorites of 10 or more playing on back-to-back days are just 6-25 (19%) against the spread since 1996 in the 1st half the season. Keep in mind this is also Golden State's 3rd game in 4 nights. Take Los Angeles!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Pelicans -

I like the value here with New Orleans as a small home favorite against the Suns. The Pelicans are going to lay it all on the line in this one, as they search for their first win of the season after an 0-5 start. They have been painfully close the last two games, losing 113-117 at home to the Bucks and 83-89 at Memphis. I saw some great signs in their last game, with rookie Buddy Hield finally getting his shot going and Lance Stephenson contributing 21. The only thing that prevented them from winning was an off night from Anthony Davis, who shot just 3 of 13 for 10 points.

I also like the opponent here, as the Suns are just 1-4 and are coming off their first win at home against the Blazers. The Suns play fast and can put up some points, but are not very efficient. Phoenix is just 25th in offensive efficiency. They are also vulnerable on defense, as they come in allowing 112.6 ppg.

The Suns are just 3-16 ATS in their last 19 road games after going over the total in their previous game and are losing here by an average score of 97.3 to 111.5 (-14.2 ppg). Phoenix is also just 4-16 ATS in their last 20 off a win by 6 points or less. Take New Orleans!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Kings +

I like the value here with Sacramento getting points against the Magic. The Kings come into this game at just 2-3, but I've been impressed with what I have seen out of this team. They were right there with the Spurs at home in a 94-102 loss, they fell apart late (outscored by 13 in 4th) in a 95-106 loss at Atlanta and last time out they lost in OT at Miami, where DeMarcus Cousins had fouled out in regulation. I look for this team to come out extremely motivated here and they are the more talented team in this one.

Orlando avoided an 0-4 start with a 103-101 win at Philadelphia, but they were very fortunate to get that win. The Magic trailed by 14 at the half and were down by as many as 18. Considering they were 0-3 going into that game and had no reason to overlook the 76ers, that's not a good sign, because Philadelphia is the worst team in the league right now.

Great system in play backing the Kings here. Teams off a road loss (Kings) with a line of +3 to -3 against an opponent off a road win by 3 points or less (Magic) are 23-4 (85%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Take Sacramento!

4* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Suns +

I think this is the time to jump on the Suns as a home dog against the Blazers. Portland is in a brutal spot here, playing on no rest after laying it all on the line at home last night against the Warriors. Now they have to go on the road to face a Suns team that has started out 0-4 and coming in off a ugly 18-point loss to the Clippers. Given how early we are in the season, I just don't see Portland being all that interested in this one.

Phoenix on the other hand is going to lay everything they have into getting their first win of the season and I like the talent on this team. While they could be without Booker, there's also a decent chance he plays, as the injury that forced him to not play Monday isn't considered serious. Either way, I like the Suns to get the win at home in this spot.

Portland is just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a losing record. The Suns are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games off a loss by 10 ore more points. Take Phoenix!

5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Celtics -

I really like the value we are getting with Boston as a small home favorite against the Bulls. Chicago is getting a lot of love after their 3-0 start both SU and ATS, which includes a 105-99 win at home against the Celtics in their opener. The thing to keep in mind with that win over Boston, is the Celtics were playing on no rest. The Bulls blitzed them in the 1st quarter and they just were never able to recover, though they did come back and take the lead after falling behind by 15 points.

While I think Chicago is better than people thought coming in, I don't see them going on the road here and beating the Celtics, especially given they just played last week and beat them. Revenge isn't huge in the NBA, but it comes into play a lot more when teams play each other in a short period of time.

The Bulls are just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games after playing a game on the road, while the Celtics are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take Boston!

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Knicks -

I really like the value here with the Knicks at basically a pick'em at home against the Rockets. Both teams will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set off a loss last night, but I give the edge to New York. Houston just laid it all on the line against the defending champs in Cleveland and it was a draining game that saw 248 combined points scored. It's going to be difficult for the Rockets to bounce back and bring the energy needed to win on the road on no rest.

It's not just the back-to-back on the road for Houston either. This will be the Rockets 4th road game in their first 5 games to start the season. All of this coming in the span of 7 days.

The Knicks lost 89-102 at Detroit and only have themselves to blame after scoring a mere 10-points in the 4th quarter and just 34 in the 2nd half. I look for New York to come out inspired at home, where they are 1-0 on the season with a 111-104 win against the Grizzlies.

Houston is just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 after scoring 55 points or more in the 1st half in 2 straight games and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 off a cover in their last game. Take New York!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Timberwolves -

I like the value we are getting here with Minnesota as a relatively small home dog against the Grizzlies. The Timberwolves have started out 0-2, despite building early leads in both losses. One of those was against Memphis in their season opener on the road. Minnesota had a 17-point lead in a 4-point loss. It was a similar story in their second game, losing by 3 at Sacramento after leading by as many as 18.

I look for the Timberwolves to once again get out to an early lead, expect this time they maintain the edge and secure a comfortable win. Keep in mind this will be Minnesota's home opener and given what's happened in the first two games, we know we are going to get a max effort here from the Timberwolves, who are poised for big things under new head coach Tom Thibodeau.

Memphis is 2-1, but both wins have come at home. In their lone road contest they fell 104-111 at New York as a 3-point dog. That's now 7 straight losses against the spread away from home for the Grizzlies dating back to last season. It's also worth pointing out that Memphis is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings on the road against the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors - 

I like the value here with Toronto in a big bounce back spot after losing last time out at home against the Cavaliers. Prior to that they beat up on the Pistons at home, winning by 18 as a 6-point home favorite. This will now be the Raptors 3rd straight at home to start the season, while Denver hits the road for the second time in their first three.

The Nuggets were able to win and cover on the road at New Orleans in their opener, but that's not a win to get excited about. The Pelicans are a one man show with Anthony Davis. Denver followed that up by losing at home to Blazers and now get their biggest test to date against a Raptors team that is one of the elite forces in the Eastern Conference. 

The big key here is that Toronto has a huge home court edge the Raptors went 32-9 at home last year and are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning road record. Denver hasn't been sharing the ball all that well. The Nuggets are 25th with 18.5 assists/game and are a mere 3-12 ATS over the last 3 seasons after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists. Take Toronto! 

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Bucks -

The Nets have come out strong covering as a 11.5-point dog at Boston on Wednesday and then winning outright as a 6-point dog at home against the Pacers last night. I believe it has Brooklyn getting a little too much respect in what should be a tough spot. I know it's early in the season, but playing 3 out of 4 nights on a back-to-back is not easy for a bad team like the Nets. 

Brooklyn also took advantage of the Celtics and Pacers not giving them the respect they deserve. Milwaukee's not going to be so kind, as the Bucks will come out with a chip on their shoulder after losing their home opener to Charlotte, who has looked impressive in their 2-0 start. It's also worth pointing out that Milwaukee has owned this series, going 6-1 in the last 7 meetings with a 3-0 ATS mark at home during this stretch. Take Milwaukee! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Suns + 

We are getting some exceptional value here with Phoenix catching almost double-digits against the Thunder. Russell Westbrook is going to put up ridiculous numbers this season, but I'm not buying OKC being a real threat in the Western Conference. The Thunder were far from impressive in their opener against a bad 76ers team. They won the game 103-97, but just as easily could have lost. They had to outscore Philadelphia 34-22 in the 4th just to secure the win. 

One of things that made a number of these OKC role players so good last year is because opposing teams had to pay so much attention to Westbrook and Durant that they often got left wide open. That's not going to be the case this year and we saw the new addition of Oladipo struggle in his Thunder debut, going just 4 of 16 from the field. The Thunder also don't have a real 3-point threat on this team and that makes it that much easier to defend them. 

We are getting great value here on Phoenix because of their lackluster performance at home against the Kings in the opener. The Suns lost 94-113 as a 3-point home favorite. For whatever reason Phoenix's starters didn't bring a lot of energy to that game. I look for a big bounce back effort here, as this team is a lot more talented than people think. Also, Sacramento is better than people think. They just gave the Spurs all they could handle at home last night. Take Phoenix! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Wizards/Hawks UNDER

I like the value here with the UNDER on the total in tonight's NBA clash between the Hawks and Wizards. Neither of these teams were in action the last two nights, so this is there season opener and it comes in a key division matchup, as both of these teams figure to be fighting for the top spot in the Southeast. I look for both sides to come out with a ton of energy on the defensive side of the ball and lead to a much lower scoring game than what this line would suggest. 

Atlanta had some big chances over the offseason. They parted ways with two of their best players in Al Horford and Jeff Teague. The only real significant move they made to improve the roster in free agency was Dwight Howard, who will start in place of Horford. Taking over for Teague will be Dennis Schroder. I think both of these guys are upgrades defensively and I look for the Hawks to play at a slower pace this year. 

Washington returns their core starters from last year with the focus centered around the backcourt duo of John Wall and Bradley Beal. The Wizards aren't a great defensive team, but they should be able to keep the Hawks new look lineup in check here. At the same time, I think Atlanta's going to make things difficult for Washington, as the Wizards won't get a ton of easy looks inside with Howard patrolling the paint. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Week on Wolves +

I'm big on Minnesota this season and while their young nucleus is a part of it, I think the biggest thing that makes them dangerous is the addition of head coach Tom Thibodeau. In his time with Chicago, the Bulls consistently overachieved during the regular season. A big part of that is he doesn't let teams take nights off defensively and that's clearly an area where the Timberwolves needed to improve. Last year Minnesota ranked 23rd, giving up 106.0 ppg. 

It didn't take long for him to get them playing harder on that side of the ball. In the Timberwolves 7 preseason games, they only allowed more than 100 points once. If they are getting after it defensively when games don't matter, hard to think they aren't going to do the same once they start to count for real. 

That defense should be able to dominate the Grizzlies depleted lineup in the season opener. Memphis is without their prized free agent signing Chandler Parsons and backup center Brandon Wright. Tony Allen is also questionable with a knee injury. Keep in mind they also lost some key pieces from last year in Matt Barnes, Lance Stephenson and Mario Chalmers. This is also a team that was horrible down the stretch, going 3-14 over their final 17 games. Take Minnesota! 

4* NBA No Doubt ATS Blowout on Pacers - 

Indiana is a team that I think is flying way under the radar going into this season. All you hear about is the Celtics being the only real threat to Cleveland in the east, but I think this Pacers team is right up there with those two teams and the Raptors. 

Indiana really came on strong late last season and a big part of that was the emergence of rookie center Myles Turner and Paul George getting further away from the injury that cost him most of the previous season. While they lost starting point guard George Hill, they did an excellent job replacing him with Jeff Teague from Atlanta. They also added in Thaddeus Young, Al Jefferson and Aaron Brooks, all of which who are improvements over what they had. It also gives them great depth across the board and their 2nd unit is going to cause a lot of problems for teams. 

Dallas also made some moves in the offseason, bringing in two castoffs from the Warriors in Harrison Barnes and Andrew Bogut. While they could have done worse, I don't think either is going to have a huge impact with this team. I'm also not sold on Deron Williams being the answer at point guard and Nowitzki is not near the factor he use to be. Dallas' second unit also leaves a lot to be desired. The Pacers have the better starters and reserves, which has all the makings of a blowout win at home. Take Indiana! 

5* NBA Opening Night No Limit Top Play on Blazers - 

The Jazz are getting a ton of love from oddsmakers going into this season and I believe we are seeing some of that hype reflected in this line, as it's going to be hard for Utah to go into Portland and get a win given the injuries they are dealing with. Utah is minus their best player in Gordon Hayward and top reserve from last year in Alec Burks. They could also be missing arguably their next play player in Derrick Favors, who is questionable with a knee injury. They also have Rodney Hood playing at less than 100%. 

Another big factor here is how much better these two teams play at home compared to on the road. Last season the Blazers went 28-13 at home and just 16-25 on the road. It was a similar story for the Jazz, who were 24-17 at home compared to 16-25 on the road. 

I know the preseason doesn't mean a lot, but it is worth noting that these two teams played twice and the Blazers won both games. Portland's starters were the more impressive unit when on the floor and MVP darkhorse Damian Lillard did as he pleased in both games, scoring 43 points on 17-28 shooting in 51 minutes. I just don't think Utah is going to be able to keep pace offensively in this one. Take Portland! 

5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Warriors - 

As bad as the Warriors have looked in the last two games, my money is on Golden State to take care of business at home in Game 7 tonight. The home team has gone an impressive 15-3 in Game 7 of the NBA Finals and lets not forget there has never been a team that has come back from a 3-1 deficit. 

The last time a road team won Game 7 was 1978 and the last time the Warriors lost 3 straight was back in November of 2013. Playing at home will be the difference and I look for Curry and Thompson to be the difference in this one. There's no denying that James is playing out of his mind right now, but he's going to need some help. Cleveland needed every bit of Irving's 41 points in Game 5 and that was with the Warriors playing without Green. 

Cavaliers are a mere 3-13 ATS in their last 16 after 2 straight wins by 10 or more points, while the Warriors are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 when revenging a road loss. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Warriors + 

It took the greatest NBA Finals performance from 2 teammates to extend this series, as LeBron James and Kyrie Irving both put up 41 points. The two simply couldn't miss, as they combined to shoot 33 of 54 (61%) from the field. James had a rare game where he caught fire from the outside, something I'm confident won't carry over. 

The thing you have to keep in mind, is those performances game with Draymond Green sidelined, arguably the Warriors most important player, especially when it comes to their versatility on the defense end. He's also a big part of the offense. I believe his return is going to be the difference. Let's not forget the Cavaliers two wins so far in the series have come with the Warriors not showing up to play in Game 3 and with Green sidelined. 

The Warriors don't lose often and have showed a great resilience off a bad game the previous time out. They closed out the Cavaliers in Cleveland last year and I fully expect them to do the same tonight. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Warriors - 

Even with Green sideline for Game 5, I'm still riding the Warriors to not only clinch the series, but to do by more than the number listed here. In fact, I think we are actually getting some value because of Green's absence, as the line has dropped by 2.5 points since it opened at 8. 

The Warriors are going to rally around the fact that Green was suspended, as many feel it was James who instigated the Flagrant foul. Green's absence will be felt on the defensive end, but the Warriors are a deep team and are going to have no problem scoring offensively.

Cleveland on the other hand, is not the same team on the road. They aren't near as efficient offensively and don't play with the same intensity on the defensive end. That's evident by the two blowouts in games 1 & 2, where the Cavaliers shot just 38.1% and 35.4% from the field, while letting the Warriors connect on 49.4% and 54.3%. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Warriors + 

As expected Golden State came out flat in Game 3 and while I didn't see a 30-point loss coming, the margin really doesn't matter. The Warriors simply didn't come to play and their star players didn't come close to performing to their potential. It's amazing what one loss can do, as the public is now on the Cavaliers in Game 4 after wanting nothing to do with them after those two losses in Golden State. 

As good as Cleveland has played at home, they should not be favorite against the Warriors in this spot. We are going to see a pissed off and highly motivated Golden State team take the floor tonight and I just don't believe the Cavs have the offensive firepower to hang with the Warriors when they are at their best. I expect this to be a close game throughout, but I look for Golden State to pull away in the 4th quarter. Keep in mind that the Warriors have struggled in Game 3's in every round. They lost Game 3 last year at Cleveland and came back and won Game 4 by 21 points. 

Warriors are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 when revenging a loss and 22-8 in their last 30 when revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Finals Vegas Insider Top Play on Cavs + 

I was on the wrong end with the Cavaliers in both Game 1 and Game 2, but I'm sticking with Cleveland as the series shifts to their house for Game 3. The Cavaliers aren't going to win this series, but they are a better team than what we have seen so far. James isn't going to let this team fall behind 0-3 in the series and the Warriors are going to struggle to match the intensity that Cleveland is going to bring to this game. 

Offense has been the big problem for the Cavaliers so far in the series. The role players have not contributed near the level needed. Golden State on the other hand has got tremendous play from their role players. Role players always seem to play better at home and I believe that's going to be the difference in Game 3. 

Cavs are 20-9 ATS in their last 29 home games revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 100+ points in 2 straight games and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games at home. Take Cleveland! 

5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Cavs + 

Cleveland is worth a look here in Game 2. Despite losing Game 1 by 15-points, there were a lot of positives to take away for the Cavaliers. Cleveland didn't shoot the ball well at all. They were 38% from the field overall and just 33% from long distance. They also got nothing from their role players, as James, Love and Irving combined for 66 of the teams 89 points. 

Defensively the Cavaliers allowed the Warriors to shoot 49.4% from the field, but were able to hold both Thompson and Curry in check, as the two combined for just 20 points on 8 of 27 shooting. The role players for Golden State all played well. Cleveland is clearly going to make the others beat them and I have a hard time seeing those not named Curry and Thompson combining for 84 points in consecutive games. 

As bad as things went for Cleveland, they actually had a lead in the 3rd quarter. James isn't going to let his team lose by double-digits in back-to-back games. Keep in mind the Warriors won Game 1 last year, only to lose Game 2 as a 7.5-point favorite. Take Cleveland! 

5* NBA Finals No Limit Top Play on Cavs + 

Golden State needed a lot of breaks to go their way to escape the Western Conference Finals against the Thunder. I don't know that they are going to be so fortunate in the NBA Finals against the Cavaliers. Either way, I have to give the edge to Cleveland in Game 1.

The Cavaliers had the much easier path to the Finals and are the more rested team. Cleveland also has serious revenge on their minds after losing to Golden State in last year's Finals. At the same time, it's going to be tough for Golden State to match the intensity of the Cavaliers after that grueling 7-game series against the Thunder. 

This year LeBron has a legit supporting cast around him. Unlike OKC, which turned to hero ball with Durant and Westbrook, Cleveland is going to share the basketball and make the Warriors defense work on every possession. They are also going to be able to close out games when they have the lead in the 4th quarter. I just feel this is too many points for Cleveland to be catching in a game they have a great shot at winning. Take the Cavaliers!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Warriors -

The Warriors have all the momentum and I look for them come out and lay it on the Thunder in Game 7 at home. Deep down OKC knows they blew their chance at winning this series with the late 4th quarter collapse at home in Game 6. The home team has such an advantage in Game 7 and even more so when you factor how good the Warriors are at Oracle. 

Golden State has made a great adjustment that couple of games, going big to keep the Thunder from dominating the board. They are also doing a great job defensively on Durant and Westbrook. The two are scoring a decent amount, but are taking a lot of shots. The pressure of Game 7 is only going to make these two force up more shots, as they just don't trust their role players enough in big situations. 

Warriors are 21-9 in their last 30 home games when playing 6 or less games in 14 days and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games overall. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Warriors + 

I know the Thunder owned Golden State at home in both Game 3 and 4, but like we saw in the Cavs/Raptors series, that doesn't mean OKC is going to dominate Game 6 at home. The Warriors answered with their backs against the wall in Game 5 on their home floor and I look for them to carry over that momentum to Game 6. 

All of the pressure is on the Thunder to win this game. They know if they lose this one, their chances of winning Game 7 on the road are slim. At the same time, the Warriors are going to be better prepared mentally this time around for the atmosphere they will face in OKC. I still think the Thunder are too dependent on Westbrook and Durant and when things get tough like they will be in Game 6, they tend to worry more about each other and the rest of the players get left out of the offense. 

It's also worth noting we are getting some value here with this line. Golden State was favored in both of the previous road games in this series and are now catching 2.5-points. This team won at OKC earlier this season and will do so again tonight. Take the Warriors! 

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Cavaliers - 

As expected, the Cleveland returned home and laid an absolute beating on the Raptors in Game 5. While it won't be as easy on the road in Game 6, I'm confident the Cavaliers will go into Toronto and finish off the series. 

Cleveland didn't give the Raptors the respect they deserved in Games 3 and 4 in Toronto, but they aren't going to make that same mistake here. All the confidence that the Raptors got in those two wins is completely gone after what happened in Game 5. The Cavaliers are simply the better team and as long as they come out with that killer instinct, Toronto has no chance of winning or keeping it close. 

Raptors are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 85 points or less in their previous game and home dogs revenging a loss where they scored 85 or less against an opponent off a home win by 20+ points are just 46-83 ATS since 1996. Take Cleveland! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Warriors -

It's hard to believe that the series is headed back to Golden State with the Warriors trailing 3-1, but  I'm not about to give up on the Warriors just yet. After losing Game 1 at home and facing a must win in Game 2, Golden State laid a 27-point beating on the Thunder.

With their season on the line, and the Thunder knowing they get Game 6 at home, I look for the Warriors to dominate Game 5. It's just going to be near impossible for OKC to come out and match the intensity of Golden State in this one. The Warriors should also be able to get their offense going at home. 

Warriors are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 when revenging an upset loss as favorite and 31-15 ATS in their last 46 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Golden State! 

4* Cavs/Raptors NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Cavs - 

I'm backing the Cavaliers to cover the big spread at home in Game 5. Sure Toronto surprised everyone by winning both games at home, but let's not forget what took place in the first two games at Cleveland. The Cavs won by 31 in Game 1 and 19 in Game 2. Not only did Cleveland fail to match the intensity of the Raptors in Toronto, but the Raptors shot extremely well in both games. 

Toronto now has the Cavaliers full attention and that's bad news for the Raptors. You also have to keep in mind just how much Lowry struggled in Cleveland over the first two games. If he's not playing at an elite level, Toronto has zero chance of keeping this game close. Even if he does play well, it still likely won't be enough to keep pace with a pissed off and highly motivated Cleveland team. 

It's also important to note that Cleveland seemed to figure out the Raptors in the 2nd half of Game 4. The Cavs came back from a 16-point halftime deficit to take the lead in the 4th quarter. Look for Cleveland to start off much better at home and be the ones up double-digits at the half. Take the Cavaliers! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Warriors -

As good as OKC looked in Game 3 at home, I think the value here is with the Warriors as a small road favorite in Game 4. Down 1-2, Golden State really can't afford to lose this game and I believe this team will come out looking more like the team that dominated Game 2. 

The Warriors simply didn't bring the defensive intensity in Game 3 and were just unable to recover from the haymaker the Thunder landed in the 2nd quarter. Oklahoma City also caught fire on the offensive end, shooting 50% from the field. I look for Golden State's defense to be the difference in this one, as Curry, Thompson and Green will deliver enough offensively to secure the win. 

Thunder are just 9-18 in their last 27 after scoring 60+ points at the half of their previous game, while the Warriors are 19-6 in their last 25 off loss by 10 or more as a road favorite. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Cavs - 

The Cavaliers got embarrassed in Game 3 at Toronto, losing 84-99 for their first loss of the postseason. Not a huge surprise, as Cleveland was due for a letdown and that was a must-win game for the Raptors. Unfortunately for Toronto I don't see that carrying over to Game 4.

Cleveland is going to come out with a chip on their shoulder after how they played on Saturday and should have no problem winning here by more than 6-points. The Cavaliers won the first two games in the series by a combined 50 points. There's simply too big a gap between these two teams, as the Cavs are clearly the best the East has to offer. 

Raptors are just 1-6 in their last 7 after a SU win and 0-4 in their last 4 off a cover. Cleveland is 4-1 in their last 5 after failing to cover their previous game and have not failed to cover in back-to-back games in the playoffs this season. Take the Cavaliers! 

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Thunder +

Golden State bounced back in a big way to take Game 2 after blowing a double-digit halftime lead in Game 1. The public is going to be on the Warriors at this line, but I think the value here is with OKC.

The Thunder are a dominant home team and have proven they can not only hang with Golden State but are capable of beating them. I look for an all out effort here from the Thunder in Game 3, as they know they have to keep home court if they want any chance of winning this series. 

Oklahoma City is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 when revenging a loss and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss by more than 10 points. Thunder are also 31-10-2 ATS in their last 43 home games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take OKC! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors +

It's been about as bad as it could be for Toronto in the first 2 games of this series. While everyone knows this series is all but a formality, I still expect the Raptors to come out and play extremely hard on their home court. I believe this is the one game that Toronto has a better than normal chance of winning. Cleveland is on cruise control and do not feel threatened at all by this team. If there's a game the Cavaliers are going to let their guard down, it's this one. 

The good news is we don't need Toronto to win the game to cash our ticket. The Raptors just have to keep it respectable, something they are definitely capable of. They have hung with Cleveland early in both games, but Lowry being a non-factor has been too much to overcome. I look for him to at least show up and provide something in Game 3. 

Let's also not forget the oddsmakers know the betting public wants absolutely nothing to do with Toronto right now. I'm confident they set this line where they like the Raptors chances of covering. Keep in mind after the Cavs won both games at home against the Hawks by double-digits, they were only a 2-point favorite in game 3. 

Cleveland is just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 off 2 straight wins by 10 or more points and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7. Take Toronto!  

5* NBA Eastern Conf Game of the Month on Raptors + 

Toronto was no match for Cleveland in Game 1 and I was all over the Cavaliers laying the big number in the series opener. Now I'm banking not he Raptors to bounce back in a big way and make a game of it in Game 2. Toronto basically took Game 1 off, as they just didn't have the energy to keep up with the Cavaliers. The Raptors just got done playing a grueling 7-game series agains the Heat, while Cleveland hadn't played in 8 days. 

Toronto simply can't be as bad offensively as they were in Game 1. The Raptors had just 3 players finish in double-figures with DeRozan leading the way with just 18. Lowry was a complete non factor, scoring just 8 points on 4 of 14 shooting, while Carrol only had 2 points. I expect this trio to have a much better showing in Game 2. I also don't expect the Cavaliers to repeat their 55% effort from the field in Game 1. As well as Cleveland has been playing, that's only the second time this postseason they have shot 50% or better. It's also the first time Toronto has allowed an opponent to eclipse that mark in the playoffs. 

Cleveland has now covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 games and are simply overvalued because of it. Keep in mind the Cavaliers are a mere 1-9 ATS in their last 10 when they come into a game having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7. Toronto is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 off a SU loss and even with the loss in Game 1 are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take the Raptors! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Thunder/Warriors OVER

Game 1 saw a combined score of just 210 points, easily finishing UNDER the total posted of 225. The books have adjusted for Game 2 by dropping the total down 3-points and I think it's a big mistake. Neither team shot the ball well, as both finished under 45% from the field. Keep in mind in the two previous meetings both teams shot at least 47%. 

Curry and Thompson combined for 51 points, but Curry was just 9 for 22 from the field. A mark he can easily better in Game 2. As for the Thunder, Westbrook had a monster 3rd quarter, but was just 7 for 21. Durant was even worse at 10 for 30. I'm also confident we aren't going to see another 14 point quarter from the Warriors like we did in the final period of Game 1. Golden State had scored at least 116 points in all 3 of the regular season meetings and would have eclipsed that if it wasn't for the awful showing in the 4th. 

OVER is 11-2 in the Thunder's last 13 after covering at least 5 of their last 7 and 13-4 in their last 17 after winning 8 or more of their previous 10. Take the OVER!  

4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Cavs - 

I have no problem laying double-digits on Cleveland at home in Game 1 against the Raptors. Toronto is still without starting center Jonas Valanciunas and were fortunate that Miami lost their starting center in Whiteside in the previous series.

The Raptors are also going to find it hard to get up and match the intensity of the Cavaliers in this game. Toronto just laid it all on the line in Game 7  against the Heat on Sunday and 1-day just isn't enough to recover from a series like that.

Cleveland on the other hand has been off since 5/15 and that kind of rest has proven to be a big advantage in the postseason. Teams coming off a sweep who have had 5 or more days of rest against an opponent that is playing on 1 day of rest are 18-5-1 ATS the last 24 times this scenario has come up. Take the Cavaliers! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Warriors - 

This might seem like a lot of points for the Warriors to be laying against a Thunder team that just closed out their series against the Spurs with 3 straight wins, including a 113-99 blowout win to clinch a spot in the Western Conference Finals. At the same time, Golden State didn't dominate the Blazers like many expected, especially once Curry returned to action, as they trailed by double-digits in the majority of the games at the half. 

The key thing to keep in mind is that Portland had the ability to play small and matchup with the Warriors, something I don't think Oklahoma City is capable of doing. At the same time, the Thunder really took advantage of a aging Spurs team, who really struggled when forced to play on more than 1-day of rest. The Thunder aren't going to be able to use that up-tempo in their favor here against the Warriors, who thrive in a fast pace. 

Let's also not forget Golden State swept the season series 3-0 and won both home games in the season series by at least 8 points. Warriors are 21-9 in their last 30 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points and 11-4 in their last 15 ATS when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors -

I've cashed in on each of the last 4 games in this series after successfully backing Miami in Game 6 at home. This time it's the Raptors who are showing the value, as they have the big advantage playing Game 7 at home. If you have followed the NBA Playoffs over the years, you know that the home team has dominated Game 7. 

I was actually surprised that the Heat were able to win Game 6 with DeRozan and Lowry combining for 59 points. The exact same amount the duo put up in Toronto's 99-91 win at home in Game 5. The good news is, these two are finally starting to play up to their potential and now the Raptors should get more out of their role players on their home floor. Toronto should also perform better on the defense side of the floor, as they will feed off the energy of the home crowd. 

The Heat are just 3-13 ATS in their last 19 when they come into a game having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat -

I have successfully cashed each of my last 3 picks in this series and I'm confident we will make it 4 for 4 with the Heat tonight. Miami nearly erased an early double-digit deficit in Game 5 and I just don't trust the Raptors in a close out situation. It's a spot that Toronto has not fared well in the past. On the other side, Miami has one of the best closers in the game in Wade and will be playing at home in a do or die situation. 

The other big positive here is the Raptors finally got a solid performance from both Lowry and DeRozan in the same game. The two combined for 59 points on 20 of 47 shooting. That almost wasn't enough on their home floor and I'm willing to bet the duo doesn't play as well on the road in Game 5. 

The Heat are 21-12 ATS in their last 33 after playing their previous game as a dog, 10-2 ATS in their last  12 at home and the Raptors are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a SU win. Take Miami! 

4* NBA Playoffs ATS No Brainer on Spurs - 

The Thunder surprised just about everyone but themselves when they went on the road and beat the Spurs for a second time in the series on their home floor. Oklahoma City now has a 3-2 lead and a chance to close out the series on their home floor tonight. I don't think that's going to happen. San Antonio is not a team that's going to panic facing elimination. 

The Spurs could have very easily won this series already. Those two losses at home came by a combined 5 points. The Thunder have won the last two in the series behind a couple of dominant performances from Durant and Westbrook and neither one was easy. I look for the Spurs to come up with a gameplan to not only slow OKC's two stars, but get their own offense going. San Antonio shot just 39.8% from the field in the last game and only lost by 4. 

Spurs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 revenging a straight up loss as a favorite of 7 or more and the Thunder are just 10-21 in their last 31 with a line of +3 to -3. Take San Antonio! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors - 

I really like the Raptors here in Game 5 at home. Toronto shot just 39.3% from the field in Game 4 and took Miami to overtime. Miami on the other hand shot 45% and needed 30 points from Wade to secure the win. I know the Raptors didn't take full advantage of Whiteside's absence in Game 4, but I look for that to change at home. 

The fact that Lowry and DeRozan were a combined 6 of 28 from the field on the road and the Raptors still almost won the game, tells me that Toronto is the far better team when these two play close to their potential. The loss of Whiteside makes it hard for Miami to get easy looks inside and they aren't a great 3-point shooting team, forcing them to take a lot of contested 2-point jump shots. His absence will be felt even more on the road, as I look for Toronto to win here comfortably. Take the Raptors! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs - 

This might seem like a big number to lay on the Spurs in Game 5, but my money is on San Antonio not only winning the game but doing so in impressive fashion. The Spurs didn't play great in either game at OKC, but still managed to get a split. They now return home, where they have lost twice all season. I know one of those was against the Thunder in Game 2, but I believe that makes even less likely they lose in Game 5. 

You also have to keep in mind that the Thunder are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. This is also a bit of a letdown spot for OKC, as they were basically in a do or die situation needing to win Game 4 to keep any hope of winning the series alive. 

Spurs are 30-12 ATS in their last 42 when tied in a playoff series and 19-9 in their last 28 when revenging a home loss. We also see that home teams favored by 7 or more with a series tied 2-2 are 11-4 ATS dating back to 2015. Take San Antonio! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat - 

Miami is showing great value here at home in a must-win Game 4. The Heat opened the series with a  win in Toronto, but lost in overtime in Game 2 and then dropped the first matchup on their home floor in Game 3. 

The big news going into Game 4 is both teams will be without their big men inside. Toronto's Jonas Valanciunas is done for the series and Miami's Hassan Whiteside is doubtful with a knee injury. I believe Miami is more equipped to play well without their big men, especially on their home floor. Valanciunas has arguably been the Raptors most consistent player in the postseason and he's certainly played a big role in Toronto's 2-1 series lead. The Raptors were +41 with him on the floor in the first 3 games and -39 when he was on the bench. 

Motivation is also heavily in Miami's favor here. The Heat absolutely have to win this game, while the Raptors are poised for a letdown after regaining home court. I see a very similar scenario to Game 4 in Toronto's opening series against the Pacers. After losing Game 1 at home, the Raptors won both Game 2 and Game 3 before getting embarrassed by 17 in Game 4 at Indiana. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs/Thunder UNDER

I really like the value we are getting here with the UNDER in Game 4 between the Spurs and Thunder. Both teams are going to come out and lay everything on the line to bring home a victory. San Antonio understands what going up 3-1 means and OKC knows they have to win here and tie it up at 2-2 if they want any chance of advancing to the next round. 

Each of the last two games in the series have finished below the mark set for this matchup and I believe we are going to see the lowest scoring game of the series tonight. Greg Popovic has now had 3 games to get a feel for what OKC wants to do offensively and I look for the Spurs to make life miserable for the Thunder offensively. At the same time, OKC is more than capable of keeping the Spurs offense in check, which they have shown the last 2 games, holding San Antonio under 43% shooting from the field. 

UNDER is a perfect 8-0 in the Thunder's last 8 home games when playing only their 4th game in 10 days and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. UNDER is also 14-2 in the Spurs last 16 road games against a team with a winning home record and 5-1 in their last 6 off a cover. It's also worth noting the UNDER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings overall between these two teams in OKC. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA No Limit Top Play on Raptors + 

*Analysis Will Be Posted Shortly* 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Spurs - 

My money is one the Spurs as a small road favorite in Game 3. San Antonio shockingly lost Game 2 at home after embarrassing the Thunder by 32 points in Game 1. Winning on the road at OKC is no easy task for most teams, but I'm confident the Spurs will rebound with one of their best performances after how poorly they played in Game 2. 

Keep in mind that the Thunder shot 48% from the field, while the Spurs connected on just 42.6% of their attempts and San Antonio still nearly won the game. The Spurs missed a lot of easy shots around the basket early in that game and that's simply not going to happen again. At the same time, the Thunder rely too much on Durant and Westbrook. If either of those two have an off game, this one will get ugly in a hurry. The two combined for 57 in Game 2 and still almost lost. 

The Spurs are 29-12 ATS in their last 41 when tied in a playoff series, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 off a loss by 3 points or less and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when revenging a loss as a favorite of 7 o more points. Take San Antonio! 

5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Month on Raptors -

Just like they did in their opening series against the Pacers, I look for Toronto to bounce back from a Game 1 loss at home with a convincing win in Game 2. The Raptors lost 90-100 in Game 1 against Indiana, only to respond with a 98-87 win in Game 2. Toronto has not lost consecutive games in the postseason to this point and I don't expect that to change. 

This is also a big letdown game for Miami. The Heat pulled off a overtime win in Game 1, getting the split in Toronto that they desperately wanted. Prior to that they laid it all on the line in a Game 7 against the Hornets. We have seen the Heat lay a couple eggs on the road against Charlotte and I'm expecting far from their best effort tonight. 

Miami is just 10-21 ATS in their last 31 after covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games and 11-24 in their last 35 off a road win. The Heat are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games overall. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hawks +

The Hawks are showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Cavaliers in Game 2 of this Eastern Conference Semifinals matchup. Atlanta fell behind big early in Game 1, but were able to rally to take the lead in the 4th quarter before Cleveland pulled away for a 11-point win. 

I believe the Hawks figured something out in the 2nd half and will be able to carry that over to Game 2 tonight. We also can count on a max effort here from Atlanta, as they try to avoid going down 0-2 in the series. Cleveland is due for a letdown in the postseason, as they have now won 5 straight after sweeping the Pistons. 

Hawks are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 when revenging 2 straight losses where they allowed 100+ points, while the Cavaliers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 after a win by 10+ points and 10-19 ATS in their last 29 after 3 or more consecutive wins. Take Atlanta! 

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Blazers +

I like the value we are getting with Portland as a double-digit road dog against the Warriors in Game 2. The Blazers failed to cover as a 9.5-point dog in Game 1, losing by 12. Portland looked shell-shocked in the 1st quarter of that game, getting outscored by 20 points (17-37). After the opening quarter the Blazers actually outscored the Warriors by 8 points. 

With their backs against the wall and Golden State potentially poised for a letdown with the potential return of Steph Curry for Game 3, I look for Portland to give the Warriors all they can handle in Game 2. While it's unlikely the Blazers can pull off the upset, it's not out of the question. Just look at the turnaround the Thunder had in Game 2 at San Antonio after getting embarrassed by 30-points in Game 1. 

Portland is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after a SU loss by more than 10 points and we have a big time system in play favoring a fade of the Warriors in this spot. Home favorites who have won more than 75% of their games are just 15-41 (27%) ATS when leading in a playoff series against a team with a winning record. Take the Blazers!

5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Month on Hawks/Cavs UNDER

The books have set the bar too high for tonight's total for Game 1 of Eastern Conference semifinals between the Hawks and Cavaliers. Atlanta held the Celtics to just 93.8 ppg in their opening series, while the Cavaliers limited the Pistons to just 95.0 ppg. 

Not a huge surprise as these were two of the top defensive teams during the regular season. Cleveland finished 4th in points allowed at 98.3 and the Hawks were 6th at 99.2. Both also rank in the Top 10 in defensive efficiency with Atlanta 2nd and Cleveland 10th. It's also important to note that the Cavs are a team that are capable of playing much better defense than what they showed over an 82-game regular season and the Hawks improved greatly on defense in the 2nd half. 

These two teams are also very familiar with one another, as they played in last year's Eastern Conference Finals. Cleveland ended up sweeping that series, but the first two games of the series featured 185 and 176 combined points.

UNDER is 9-1 in Cavs last 10 when playing 5 or less games in 14 days and 7-0 in the Hawks last 7 road games after covering 2 straight as a favorite. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors - 

Indiana was able to avoid elimination with a 101-83 win at home in Game 5, but I don't think there fortunes will carry over to Game 7. Home court in Game 7 has proven to be a huge advantage over the years, especially when that team is coming off a loss.

Going back to the 2002-03 season, the home team is 15-8 (65.2%) ATS in Game 7 after losing the previous game. It's also worth noting that each time Indiana has managed to pull out a win the Raptors have answered with a victory in the next game. 

Indiana on the other hand is a mere 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win by more than 10 points. The Pacers are also 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games after 5 straight games where they held their opponent to 42% or worse from the field. Toronto is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100+ points. Take the Raptors! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Spurs - 

San Antonio and Oklahoma City both made easy work of their opponents in the first round. The Spurs swept the Grizzlies while the Thunder needed just 5 games to send Dallas packing. I believe that has kept this spread low enough that it's worth laying the points with San Antonio at home. 

The Spurs finished a dominant 40-1 on their home floor during the regular season and added two more victories against Memphis. Both coming via huge blowouts. San Antonio beat the Grizzlies by 32 in Game 1 and 26 in Game 2. The Spurs understand the importance of getting a series started off with a win and protecting their home court advantage and I look for them to do just that against the Thunder. 

Oklahoma City was able to get away with their style of play against the Mavericks, relying almost exclusively on Durant and Westbrook to carry the load offensively. That's not going to work against the Spurs, who are playing exceptional on the defensive side of the ball. San Antonio also has the weapons to pick apart the Thunder's defense. I believe it will take a near perfect performance from OKC's two stars just to keep this game close. 

Thunder are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games after playing 5 straight games as a favorite and are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games in Game 1 of a playoff series as a dog. Spurs are 14-5 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points and 19-5 ATS in their last 24 during Game 1 of a playoff series after closing out their previous series with 2 or more consecutive wins. Take San Antonio! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors/Pacers UNDER

These two teams will be facing off for the sixth time in the last 14 days and needless to say they are very familiar with what each other at this point. Each of the first 4 games finished UNDER the total, including both games in Indiana, but the two did go over the mark in Game 5 at Toronto. I believe that has created some value here on the UNDER. 

This is a crucial game for both teams. Indiana is facing elimination on their home floor, while Toronto wants to avoid another playoff collapse. Keep in mind two years ago they had a 3-2 lead against the Nets and proceeded to lose Game 6 in Brooklyn and Game 7 at home. Even with a game to play with, Toronto is going to come out like they are facing elimination as well. Both teams are going to lay everything they have on the defensive side of the ball. 

UNDER is 13-4 in the Pacers last 17 home games after covering the spread in their last contest and 10-1 in their last 11 after scoring 60 or more points in the 1st half of their previous game. UNDER is also 5-0 in the Raptors last 5 after scoring 100+ in their previous game and 7-1 in their last 8 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Hawks - 

The home team has won all 5 games to this point, but I expect that trend to come to an end in Game 6 at Boston. Atlanta laid it on the Celtics in a 110-83 home win in Game 5 and the Hawks can smell blood with a 3-2 series lead. 

Atlanta has clearly been the more impressive team to this point. They have had at least a 15 point lead in 4 of the 5 games, including a 16-point lead in Game 4 at Boston, which they ended up losing in overtime. The key here is the health of the Celtics, who are without Avery Bradley, arguably their best two-way player. Now they have to lay with a less than 100% Isaiah Thomas, who re-aggravated a sprained left ankle in the 4th quarter of Game 4. 

Home underdogs that are revenging a loss where they scored less than 85 points against an opponent off a win by 20 or more are just 46-82 (36%) ATS since 1996. Hawks as a team are 33-19 ATS in their last 52 off a home win by 10 or more points and the Celtics are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games after playing 2 straight as a dog. Take Atlanta! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat - 

The Heat and Hornets head to Game 5 in Miami with the series tied 2-2. The Hornets made this a series by taking both Games 3 and 4 at home, but are now headed back to Miami where they got destroyed in the first two games of the series. The Heat won 123-91 in Game 1 and 115-103 in Game 2. 

Just watching this series you can see just how much better both of these teams play on their home floor. The fact that Miami is a bigger favorite in Game 5 than they were in either Game 1 or Game 2 after losing the last two really speaks volumes to that. This is also a big letdown spot for Hornets, as they put everything they had on the line at home to even up the series. I see this is a very similar scenario to last night's Game 5 between the Hawks and Celtics. 

Miami is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games after a loss by 6 points or less, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games overall and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take the Heat! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf Playoffs Game of the Month on Hawks - 

The home team has won all 4 meetings in the series to this point and I don't expect that trend to come to an end in Game 5 in Atlanta on Tuesday. While the series is tied 2-2, I've been much more impressed with the Hawks to this point. In both games in Atlanta, the Hawks jumped out early leads. After letting Boston back in Game 1, they kept their foot on the gas in Game 2 with a 17-point victory. 

Another key factor to keep in mind is that the Celtics used up a lot of energy in winning both of those games at home and are now primed for a letdown in Game 5. Let's also not forget that Boston is still without a huge piece to the puzzle in Avery Bradley. 

It's also important to note that while Atlanta lost both games on the road, they could have easily won either of those games. The big problem for them was their 3-point shooting. They were just 25% from long distance in Game 3 and 28% in Game 4. I look for the outside shot to fall at a much higher frequency at home. 

Boston is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after 5 straight games holding their opponents to 42% or worse from the field and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Atlanta on the other hand is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6. Take the Hawks! 

4* NBA Playoffs Situational ATS Annihilator on Raptors - 

Indiana has surprised a lot of people by making this a series, but I'm still confident the Raptors are going to take care of business and advance to the next round. It starts tonight with a must-win in Game 5 at home with the series tied 2-2. 

Toronto lost by 17 at Indiana in Game 4, but that wasn't a huge surprise given they used up a lot of energy to take both Game 2 and Game 3. Both of those wins came by at least 11 points and I look for another blowout win in Game 5. The Raptors simply didn't shoot well in Game 4, as they shot just 36.5% from the field and were a miserable 8 for 30 (27%) from long distance. I expect a much better shooting performance at home tonight. 

Pacers are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 off a SU win by more than 10 points and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Toronto is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home. Take the Raptors! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Mavericks + 

Dallas is showing great value here as a near 15-point underdog in Game 5 against the Thunder. While it's unlikely the Mavericks will pull off another huge upset in OKC (won 85-84 as 14-point dog in Game 2), I expect them to keep this game much closer than the number listed. 

Oklahoma City just won both games in Dallas to take a commanding 3-1 series lead and could let their guard down here. At the same time, we can expect an all out effort from the Mavericks, as they try to fight off elimination. Getting 2-days off prior to this game is huge for Dallas, who lacks depth with all their injuries and it also gives head coach Rick Carlisle time to make some adjustments, something he's well known for in the postseason. 

Mavericks are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games after playing 2 straight as a home dog, 13-5 ATS in their last 18 off a SU loss by more than 10 points and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Dallas!

5* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Hawks/Celtics UNDER 

I really like the value here with the total in Game 4 between the Hawks and Celtics. These two teams combined for 214 points in Game 3, easily eclipsing the total of 203.5. There's a couple of factors that led to the high-scoring affair. Boston switched up their style of play and went with a smaller lineup, which I believe caught the Hawks off guard. Atlanta was also in a prime letdown spot in terms of defensive intensity with a 2-0 series lead. 

I look for the Hawks to make the adjustments to the Celtics new look and to come out with a lot more motivated than what we saw in Game 3. Atlanta isn't going to let Isaiah Thomas go off for 40+ points in back-to-back games. Let's not forget that the Hawks held Boston to just 72 points in the previous game and held them under 40% shooting in both Game 1 and Game 2. 

UNDER is 19-6 in the Hawks last 25 when leading in a playoff series, 11-4 in their last 15 games in the first round of the playoffs and 5-0 in their last 5 after failing to cover the spread last time out. UNDER is also 10-1 in the Celtics last 11 after covering their previous game and 10-3 in their last 13 after scoring 100+ points. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Hornets - 

The Hornets season is on the line when they take on the Heat in Game 3 at home. Charlotte lost both games in Miami and simply can't afford to fall behind 0-3 in the series.

The Heat couldn't have played any better than they did in the first two games of the series at home, but were not nearly as strong on the road during the regular season. Charlotte on the other hand went a very respectable 30-11 at home.

Miami is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 after winning 4 of their previous 5 games and 9-20 in their last 29 after covering the spread in 2 straight. The Hornets are 18-9 ATS in their last 27 revenging a road loss, and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 following a SU loss by more than 10 points. Take Charlotte -2! 

4* NBA Playoffs Situational ATS Annihilator on Pistons + 

With the series shifting to Detroit and the Cavaliers holding a 2-0 series lead, I really like the value here with the Pistons catching 5-points at home in Game 3.

Detroit was right there with an excellent shot to win Game 1, but came up short. In Game 2 the Cavaliers caught fire and connected on 20 3-pointers. With Cleveland in line for a bit of a letdown and the Pistons season on the line, I look for Detroit to keep this game close and wouldn't be shocked if they won it outright. 

The Cavaliers are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 road games after scoring 100+ points in 5 straight games, while the Pistons are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games after losing 3 of their last 4 and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. Take Detroit! 

4* NBA Playoffs Late Night ATS No Brainer on Rockets + 

Houston returns home down 0-2 and will be fighting for their playoff lives in game 3 at home. The key here is that Golden State doesn't feel threatened by the Rockets and will likely make the call to rest Curry another game to ensure he's 100% for the upcoming series against likely the Clippers and Spurs. 

Houston knows that this is their chance to make this a series and that a loss here all but ends their season. The Rockets were much more competitive in Game 2 with Curry sidelined. After losing by 26 in the series opener, they lost by just 9. Returning home should be enough for Houston to keep this game close and potentially pull off the upset. Keep in mind this is also a bit of a letdown spot for Golden State with a comfortable 2-0 series lead. Take Houston! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors - 

The Raptors are showing great value here as at basically a pick'em on the road in Game 3 of their series against the Pacers. Indiana is getting a lot of respect for winning Game 1 on the road by 10-points, but I just don't see the Pacers making this a series going forward. Toronto is going to come out with a huge sense of urgency to get back home court advantage. 

Winning on the road wasn't a problem for the Raptors during the regular season. Toronto went 24-17 away from home, which was nearly as good as the Pacers home record of 26-15. In the first two games Indiana has got a near flawless performance from Paul George, while the Raptors haven't got near the production they expect from their backcourt duo of DeRozan and Lowry. I look for those two to breakout of their slump and Toronto to continue to their dominance inside. The Raptors have outscored the Pacers 88-56 in the paint and out rebounded them 96-71. Take Toronto! 

4* NBA Late Night ATS No Brainer on Blazers +

Things couldn't have gone much worse for Portland in their 95-115 loss in Game 1. The Trail Blazers shot a mere 39.8% from the field and just 10 of 30 from behind the 3-point line. The Clippers on the other hand shot 53.8% from the field. I look for things to even out and Portland to put up a much better fight in Game 2. 

Portland is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games after failing to cover the spread in their last game and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 after a blowout loss by 20 or more points. Clippers on the other hand are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 when playing on 2 days of rest and 7-17 ATS in their last 24 after scoring 100+ points in 3 straight games. Take Portland! 

4* NBA Playoffs Over/Under Total Annihilator on Celtics/Hawks OVER

The Hawks and Celtics went UNDER the total in Game 1, as they combined for 203 points with a total posted at 206.5. The books have adjusted slight for Game 2, but I think that's a mistake. These two teams combined for 203 points with neither team shooting well from the field. 

Boston only hit 36.3% (37-102) from the field, while the Hawks weren't much better at 40.7% (35-86). Atlanta was also a miserable 18.5% (5-27) from behind the 3-point line, well below their season average of 35.2% at home. I look for both teams to come out and shoot the ball much better and with the tempo they are playing at, this game should fly over the total. 

Keep in mind that Boston lost one of their best defensive players in Avery Bradley, which is a bigger loss than people think. It's also worth noting that in the previous 3 meetings during the regular season these two teams combined for at least 210 points. A mark I see them eclipsing tonight. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Raptors -

The key in the NBA playoffs is to not overreact to what happened in the previous game. Toronto lost at home in Game 1 by double-digits (90-100) as a 7-point favorite, which is going to have a lot of people looking to take Indiana in Game 2. I'm looking the other direction here, as the Raptors are going lay it all on the line to avoid falling behind 0-2 in the series. 

It's also important to note that this play falls in a profitable NBA playoffs zig-zag system, which has us backing home teams off a home loss, who won more than 60% of their games and lost by more than 3-points in the previous matchups. Teams in this spot who are favored by 6 to 9 points are 47-26-2 (64.4%) ATS in the playoffs dating back to 2002. 

We also see that the Pacers are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 off a upset win as a road dog, while the Raptors are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games when playing against a team with a winning record. Take Toronto! 

5* NBA Playoffs ATS No Brainer on Pistons + 

Detroit is showing great value here as a double-digit dog against the Cavaliers in their series opener. The Pistons played Cleveland tough during the regular season. They won 3 of the 4 meetings and the lone loss came by just 8 points. I'm not expecting Detroit to win this game, but I do think they are going to be able to keep it well within the number posted. 

The Pistons are simply built well to take on a team like the Cleveland, as they have the inside presence with Drummond to keep James from repeatedly attacking the rim for easy baskets. The Pistons also have the balance offensively to give the Cavaliers trouble on the defensive side of the ball. 

Cleveland went just 4-12 ATS against division opponents this season, winning by an average of just 2.2 ppg. Detroit on the other hand is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 4-1 in their last 5 against a division opponent. Take the Pistons! 

5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Vegas Insider on Hawks -

I really like the value here with the Hawks laying a very reasonable number at home against the Celtics. Atlanta really came on strong at the end of the year and I look for that momentum to carry over into the postseason. Boston is a quality team, but are not a great road team and playing away from home in the playoffs is no easy task. 

Another big key here for me is playoff experience and Atlanta clearly has the edge in that department after advancing to the conference finals a year ago. The Hawks are also playing exceptional on the defensive side of the ball, especially after the All-Star break. You here a lot about the Spurs and how good they are on defense. The Hawks had the best defense efficiency rating after the break in the league at 96.8 with San Antonio second at 99.3. 

Atlanta is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games against a team with a losing road record. It's also important to note that the Hawks were just 2-6 ATS in their final 8 games, which is helping the number here. The key is that they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6. Take Atlanta! 

4* NBA Playoffs Early Bird Total Annihilator on Pacers/Hawks UNDER

I'm expecting a low-scoring game in tomorrow's series opener between the Raptors and Pacers. The fact that both of these teams average right around 102.0 ppg, will have the public backing the over with this low total, but you can't overreact to regular season numbers. 

The playoffs are a completely different than the regular season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The intensity is simply taken to a whole new level and while both teams are good offensively, these are also two teams that no how to get after it on the defensive side of the ball. 

UNDER is 12-4 in the Pacers last 16 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 9-1 in their last 10 after scoring 60+ points in the 1st half of their last game and 6-2 in their last 8 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. UNDER is also 9-3 in the Raptors last 12 against the Eastern Conference and 24-15 in their last 39 after scoring 100+ in two straight games. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Blazers/Nuggets OVER

The books have simply set the mark too low on tonight's total between the Blazers and Nuggets. While Portland is still fighting for playoff position, they are ensured that they won't finish worth than 6th. That's huge, as it means they will avoid having to face the Spurs and Warriors in the first round. 

The key here is the Blazers haven't been playing a whole lot of defense of late, even with them fighting for position. Portland has allowed at least 106 points in 4 straight games and 100+ in 11 of their last 14 overall.

I look for there woes to continue here against the Nuggets. While Denver only managed 84 in their last game, it came against one of the best defensive teams in the Jazz. Prior to that the Nuggets had scored 100+ in 3 straight. Defensively the Nuggets have allowed 100+ in 13 of their 14 and are giving up 105 ppg on the season. 

OVER is 10-2 in the Blazers last 12 after failing to cover the spread in 2 straight games and 4-0 in their last 4 against a team with a losing record. OVER is also 7-3 in the Nuggets last 10 road games and 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. OVER is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month on Grizzlies +

The Grizzlies are showing great value here as a decently priced road dog against the Clippers. Memphis is still fighting for playoff position, while Los Angeles is locked into the No. 4 seed. The Grizzlies currently sit in sixth, 1/2-game back of Portland, but are also just 1/2-game ahead of seventh place Dallas. Avoiding the bottom two spots would keep them from having to play the Spurs in the first round. 

The Clippers aren't going to come out and say it, but you have to believe LA would rather face Memphis in the first round than the Trail Blazers. The Grizzlies don't figure to be much of a threat in the postseason, as they have lost both Conley and Gasol for the rest of the season. The Clippers also have no reason to be motivated for this game and their focus now is on getting as healthy as possible for the playoffs. 

Grizzlies are 23-13 ATS off a SU loss this season, while the Clippers are just 14-27 ATS in their last 41 home games off 3 or more consecutive wins and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after making 50% or more of their 3-point shots in their previous game. Take Memphis! 

5* NBA Vegas ATS No Brainer on Jazz - 

The Jazz are showing great value here as a relatively small home favorite against the Mavericks tonight. While both teams are still fighting to secure one of the final two playoff spots in the west. Dallas currently sits in 7th place, 1-game ahead of the Jazz in 8th and 2-games in front of the Rockets in 9th. 

I look for the Jazz to be the more motivated team at home in this one, as the Mavericks have some breathing room and get to host the Spurs in their finale, which will likely have San Antonio resting most of their star players. You also have to factor in that Dallas could be without both Barea and Williams, as they are both listed as questionable. 

Utah is also the fresher team here. This will be just the 3rd game in the last 6 days for the Jazz, while the Mavericks will be playing their 3rd in the last 4 days and 2nd of a back-to-back road set. Jazz are 16-6 ATS this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and it's worth noting they won the previous meeting 121-119 in Dallas, as the Mavericks are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 revenging a close loss of 3-points or less. Take the Jazz! 

5* No Limit NBA Top Play on Suns - 

Phoenix is showing great value here as a small road favorite against the Pelicans. The public will be inclined to back the Pelicans at home, as the Suns aren't exactly a team most feel comfortable laying points with on the road. However, the situation here heavily favors Phoenix, which is why the books have them listed as the favorite.

New Orleans has basically lost everyone who they expected to play a major role this year to some kind of injury. The reserves and free agent signings have continued to play hard down the stretch, but this is one spot where I don't see the Pelicans being interested at all. New Orleans will be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 4th in the last 5 days overall. They won last night in LA 110-102, which adds to the likelihood of a letdown here against a bad team like Phoenix. Take the Suns! 

5* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Grizzlies + 

Memphis is showing great value here in what's an important game for both teams. While the Grizzlies have secured a playoff spot, they are still fighting for positioning. Right now Memphis is tied with Portland for 5th, which would have them playing the Clippers in the first round. If they end up 6-8 they will have to play either the Thunder, Spurs or Warriors. 

Dallas has won 5 straight to put them in a great position to make the playoffs, as they are 1-game ahead of 8th place Utah and 2.5 ahead of 9th place Houston. The recent run has been impressive, but I believe it has them overvalued here. Dallas has had to play at a much slower pace since losing Parsons and Williams, which I think plays into the strength of the Grizzlies. It also makes the 6.5-points that much more valuable, as this doesn't figure to be a high-scoring game. 

Memphis is 27-7 ATS in their last 34 off a win by 15 points or more as an underdog and are 30-13 ATS in their last 43 road games off an upset win as a home dog. Take Memphis +6.5! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider *BEST BET* on Kings - 

Sacramento is actually showing great value here as a 4.5-point home favorite against the Timberwolves. This is the ultimate letdown spot for Minnesota, as they pulled off a huge upset in Tuesday's 124-117 overtime win at Golden State, where they overcame a 17-point deficit. There's just no way the Timberwolves are able to come close in bringing that same kind of energy here on the road against the Kings. 

Sacramento has been hit or miss of late but I look for them to come out motivated here off a loss at home last time out. The Kings also should have plenty of motivation to avoid getting swept by Minnesota in the season series. If the Timberwolves come out flat, this game could get way out of hand early. Lay the Points! 

5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Week on Mavs +

Dallas is showing great value here as a home dog against the Rockets. In fact, my numbers suggest that the Mavericks should be the ones playing points. Dallas comes into this game having won 4 straight, but just aren't getting the respect they deserve due to the fact that they are dealing with injuries. Clearly the books are overreacting, as the Mavericks have gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games. 

Houston has been inconsistent all season and that's been the case of late. The Rockets are just 3-5 over their last 8, but are getting some love here after beating the Thunder 118-110 as a 3.5-point road dog. Key thing to keep in mind is OKC has nothing to play for right now (all but locked into the No.3 seed). 

This is basically a playoff game for these two teams and with that I give a big edge to the home team. Dallas currently sits 1/2-game ahead of 8th place Utah, but are just 1-game ahead of 9th place Houston. A win here could push the Mavericks 2-games up on the Rockets with just 4 to play.  Take Dallas! 

5* NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month on Suns/Hawks UNDER

I believe the books have set the bar way too high for tonight's total between the Suns and Hawks. Phoenix comes into his game really struggling to get anything going offensively. The Suns have failed to score 100 points in 3 straight and 8 of their last 10 overall. 

Their offensive woes figure to continue against the Hawks, who are going to come out extremely motivated off back-to-back losses to the Raptors and Cavaliers. Atlanta is currently sitting tied with Boston for the No. 3 seed in the east, but are just a 1/2 game ahead of both Miami and Charlotte. Homecourt is something the Hawks desperately want in the first round and getting the No. 3 seed ensures they won't see the Cavaliers until the conference finals. 

UNDER is 7-3 in the Hawks last 10 home games and 6-2 in their last 8 at home against a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 21-8 in the Suns last 29 after allowing 100 or more in 5 straight games and 10-2 in their last 12 road games in the 2nd half of the season against teams who are called for 21 or less fouls per game. UNDER is also a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings of this series. Take the UNDER! 

5* NCAA Championship Game No Limit Top Play on Villanova + 

Both teams are coming off impressive wins in the Final 4 on Saturday. North Carolina defeated ACC rival Syracuse 83-66, while Villanova laid it on Oklahoma 95-51. I cashed in a huge ticket on the Wildcats against the Sooners (Game of Year) and I'm back on the Villanova bandwagon in the title game. 

Not to take anything away from the Tar Heels, but Syracuse was a favorable matchup for them, as unlike the other teams the Orange had beat up that point, North Carolina had a great understanding of how to attack their zone. The key to beating the Tar Heels is to force them into taking outside shots and limit easy looks in transition, two things Villanova does extremely well. I also look for the Wildcats to take away Marcus Paige to disrupt the flow of the Tar Heels offense. 

On the flip side of things, North Carolina defense isn't overwhelming and I look for them to struggle against the Wildcats, who can beat you both with the outside shot and their ability to drive  inside and get easy looks with their passing. If the outside shots continue to fall at the rate they have been so far in the tournament, Villanova has a chance to take control of this game and cruise to an easy win and cover. Take the Wildcats! 

5* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Pacers -

The Pacers are showing great value here as a mere 4-point favorite against the Knicks. Indiana comes into this game off an easy 115-102 win at Philadelphia yesterday and I look for them to carry over that momentum with another easy win today. The Pacers can't afford to lose to a team like New York right now, as they are sitting in the 8th and final playoff spot in the east, just two games up on the Bulls. 

New York comes into this game off an impressive 105-91 win at home against the Nets without Porzingis, which is definitely keeping this line low. What gets overlooked is the big advantage the Knicks had in that game with the Nets playing their 4th game in 5 days and fresh off a game the night before against the Cavaliers. Brooklyn simply didn't show up to play. 

There's simply not enough talent on the roster for the Knicks to compete with a motivated Pacers team without Porzingis. They also are without point guard Jose Calderon. New York is a mere 5-16 ATS in their last 21 as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points and just 10-23 ATS in their last 33 home games after playing their previous game at home. Lay the points! 

5* Final Four Game of the Year on Villanova -

I'm not the least bit concerned about the fact that Oklahoma beat Villanova 78-55 earlier this season. While it's worth noting, these are two completely different teams right now. That game also saw Oklahoma shoot lights out, hitting 47% from the field and 54% from behind the 3-point line (14 of 26). Villanova on the other hand played one of their worst games of the season. The Wildcats shot just 31.7% from the field and were a miserable 4-32 (12.5%) from behind the 3-point line. 

Oklahoma is simply not that good of a defensive team and I'm confident we are going to see a much better showing from the Wildcats offense in this one. Let's not forget they just knocked off the best team in the Big 12 in Kansas, so taking down Oklahoma shouldn't be a problem. 

The big key here for me is the Villanova defense and how I believe it will give the Sooners problems. The Wildcats have been sensational on the defensive end in the NCAA Tournament holding all 4 opponents under 70 points. They made a talented Iowa offense look awful and held Kansas to just 59 points. 

One thing that gets lost in that first meeting with the Sooners, is the success that Villanova had against Buddy Hield. They held him to just 18 points on 6 of 17 shooting (zero assists). They made him work for everything he got and that's a staple for this team. Jay Wright isn't going to let your best player dominate the game. He's going to make the other guys step up. Without Hield playing at an elite level, I just don't trust the Sooners. 

If Villanova continues to shoot the ball as well as they have so far in the tournament, I think this game could actually get out of hand and the Wildcats could end up cruising to an easy win. Oklahoma is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after 15+ games against teams who average 12 or fewer turnovers per game and 5-13 ATS in their last 18 after 15+ games against a team with a winning record. Lay the points! 

4* NBA Late-Night ATS Heavy Hitter on Suns + 

Phoenix is showing great value here as a home dog against the slumping Wizards. We are seeing a big line here due to Washington being the team that desperately needs a win to stay in the playoff race, as they are 3-games back of the 8th and final playoff spot in the east. The Wizards failed in a similar spot last time out, losing 111-120 at Sacramento and have dropped 4 of 5 overall. 

Phoenix is one of the worst teams in the league, but they have been playing much better of late. They have covered 6 of their last 10 and were right there with a chance to win their last game at Milwaukee, but ended up losing and failing to cover in a 94-105 loss as a 8-point dog. 

I look for the Suns to come out motivated in this one at home, as they go up against former teammate Markieff Morris, who wanted nothing to do with them and demanded a trade. You also have to factor in the Wizards playing with tired legs, as this will be their 4th straight on the road and 3rd game overall in the last 4 days. 

Phoenix is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games off a loss by 10 or more points, while the Wizards are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 off a SU loss and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 against a team with a losing record. Take the points! 

5* No Limit NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies + 

Memphis is showing great value here as a decently priced home dog against the Raptors. The Grizzlies are simply being undervalued due to having lost 4 straight and 8 of 10 overall, but injuries have played a big part in that. Toronto also comes in off a big 105-97 home win and are perceived to be the much better team. 

While the Raptors are the better team, I don't see them being all that interested in this matchup. Toronto has made it clear that they aren't concerned about catching Cleveland for the No. 1 seed in the east and in the back of their minds, I believe they know their chances of Cleveland slipping are slim. That doesn't leave a whole lot to play for, as they are 6-games up on 3rd place Atlanta. Having just secured their 50th win of the season at home and a huge game against the Spurs on deck tomorrow, I wouldn't be surprised if rest was the primary focus in this one. Either key players sitting or playing limited minutes. 

With Memphis they just got back Randolph and Tony Allen is healthy, giving them a formidable lineup, even with Gasol and Conley out. This game also means a lot more to the Grizzlies, who have made it clear they want the No. 5 seed. Right now they are just 1.5-games up on 6th place Portland. I expect a max effort here at home for Memphis. 

Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, 11-2 ATS in their last 13 against the Eastern Conference and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 after a game where both teams scored 105 or more points. Take the points! 

4* NBA Situational Total No Brainer on Nets/Knicks UNDER

These two teams don't exactly like each other, which is a good sign that both will come out with some energy on the defensive side of the ball. With the way their offenses are playing, I believe we are getting some great value here with a total over 200 points. 

Brooklyn managed just 87 points on 37% shooting in their last game and aren't in a good spot to bounce back. The Nets will not only be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 4th game in the last 5 days. Brooklyn will have no choice but to slow the tempo down and they already rank 21st in the league in pace. 

New York won't mind the slower tempo, as they rank 25th in pace. The Knicks also will be missing a huge piece of their offense, as Porzingis is doubtful with a shoulder injury and point guard Jose Calderon is questionable with a quad injury. Keep in mind that New York is coming into this game struggling offensively. They have scored 93 or less in each of their last 3 and 94 or fewer in 8 of their last 10. 

UNDER is 8-0 in the Knicks last 8 when playing on 1 day of rest, 5-0 in their last 5 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games, 5-1 in their last 6 off a SU loss, 13-3 in their last 16 home games overall and 7-1 in their last 8 against the Eastern Conference. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Celtics + 

This might seem like a small number for the Blazers to be laying at home, where they are a respectable 24-12 on the season, but I really like the Celtics in this spot. Boston is going to come out extremely motivated off an ugly 24-point loss at the Clippers in their last game. They have had a full 2 days to let that defeat sink in and keep in mind they had won 4 straight prior to that loss. 

Portland comes in having won 2 straight, but those wins came against the 76ers and Kings and neither was all that impressive. They only beat Philadelphia at home by 3 and Sacramento by just 12 with the Kings resting Cousins, Rondo and Gay. Overall the Blazers are not playing well. They are just 6-8 in their last 14 and all 6 wins have come against below average teams. One of their losses during this stretch was a 23-point defeat at Boston. The Celtics had some big advantages in that game that I'm confident will carry over to this game. 

Portland is just 14-31 ATS in their last 45 home games when revenging a road blowout loss by 20 or more points, while Boston is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 off a SU loss by more than 10 points, 32-19 ATS in their last 51 as a road dog and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games with a total of 210 or more points. Take the points! 

5* NIT Championship Game ATS No Brainer on George Washington +

The Colonials are showing great value here as a dog against the Crusaders in the NIT Championship Game. George Washington played in the much stronger A-10 conference, while the Valparaiso built up their resume against bad teams in the Horizon. I was also much more impressed with the Colonials performance against San Diego St in the semifinals. George Washington made a very good Aztecs team look like they didn't belong on the same court. 

Offensively both of these teams have star players that they rely on. Alec Peters averages 18.4 ppg and 8.4 rpg for the Crusaders, while Tyler Cavanaugh averages 16.9 ppg and 7.6 rpg. The key here in my opinion is the supporting casts, which I give a strong edge to George Washington. The Colonials also get big contributions from Patricio Garino (14.1) and Kevin Larsen (12.1 ppg), while the only player for Valparaiso averaging double-figures is Keith Carter (10.4). 

Valparaiso is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a winning record and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a SU win. George Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 33-18 ATS in their last 51 against strong rebounding teams, who average 40 or more per game. Take the points! 

4* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Timberwolves +

I really like the value here with the Timberwolves as a decently priced home dog against the Clippers. Minnesota may be out of playoff contention, but are a young team fighting to get better down the stretch. That's evident by the fact that the Timberwolves  have won 3 of their last 4 and are 8-4 ATS in their last 12. 

I just don't see Los Angeles being motivated at all for this game against a bad team like Minnesota. Los Angeles is basically locked into the No.4 seed in the west. They are 5-games back of No. 3 Oklahoma City and 5.5-games ahead of No. 5 Memphis. LA also comes in off a big home game against the Celtics and have an even bigger game on deck tomorrow at Oklahoma City, which is a nationally televised game on TNT. 

Clippers are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Minnesota on the other hand is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when playing on 1 day of rest, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning road record and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 against a team with a winning record. Take the points! 

5* NBA No Limit Game of the Month on Bucks -

This might seem like a big number for Milwaukee to be laying at home, as the Bucks come into this game having lost 5 straight. However, those 5 losses have all come against quality opponents in the Jazz, Pistons, Cavaliers, Hawks and Hornets (3 of the 5 on the road).

I look for Milwaukee to come out extremely motivated and make easy work of the Suns. Keep in mind that despite their poor overall record, the Bucks are a respectable 21-15 at home this season. Phoenix on the other hand is just 7-30 on the road, where they are getting outscored on average by nearly 12.0 ppg. 

The Suns are also a team that's more interested in tanking for a better chance at the top pick than finishing the season strong. I just don't see the effort being there on the road tonight. Phoenix just played on the road in Minnesota in their last game and are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after a road game where both teams scored 100+ points. They are also just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 road games overall and 8-24 ATS in their last 32 against a team with a losing record. 

Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after losing 4 or 5 of their last 6 and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points. Lay the points! 

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Raptors -

We find the Raptors in a very similar spot to the Pistons, which we cashed on last night as a 3-point dog in a 88-82 outright win. Toronto is playing at home off an ugly 19-point home loss to the Thunder against a Hawks team that comes in having won 4 straight and 14 of their last 17 overall. 

As a result we are getting big time value on the Raptors at home, where they are a dominant 28-9 SU on the season. We can expect a max effort here from Toronto not only due to them coming off that ugly home loss, but this being a chance to secure the No. 2 seed in the east over the Hawks. 

One thing to keep in mind about Atlanta's recent run, is it's come against a soft schedule. Over their last 14 wins, only three have come against a team sitting in the top 5 in either conference and one of those was a home victory against the injury-depleted Grizzlies. One of their losses during this stretch was a 8-point defeat at Toronto, their third straight loss in the series. 

Raptors are 8-1 ATS in their 9 home games this season against teams who are outscoring opponents by 3+ points/game and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take Toronto! 

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Pistons +

I was on the wrong end of Oklahoma City's 119-100 win at Toronto last night as a 3-point favorite, but that's not stopping me from going against the Thunder again tonight. The fact that Oklahoma City is almost an identical favorite at Detroit, who isn't considered to be as good as the Raptors is a good sign the books believe Detroit is the sharp play in this one. 

This is a bit of a letdown spot for OKC, as they really came out with a lot of energy against Toronto and have a huge home game on deck against the Clippers Thursday, which will be nationally televised on TNT. You also have to keep in mind that the Thunder were out for revenge last night against the Raptors, who had beat them on their home floor earlier this season. 

I just don't see Oklahoma City coming out with that same energy in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road against a Detroit team they beat by 16 in the previous matchup. The Pistons on the other hand are going to come out extremely motivated following an embarrassing 95-112 home loss to the Hawks. 

Detroit is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 off an upset loss as a favorite and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games revenging a loss of 10 or more points. Thunder on the other hand are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games after playing a game as a road favorite and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after a road game where both teams scored 100 or more points. Take the points! 

5* NIT No Limit NCAAB *BEST BET* on Valparaiso - 

I really like the value we are getting with Valparaiso as a small favorite in tonight's NIT Semifinal matchup against BYU. The Crusaders have really been impressive in the NIT with double-digit wins over Texas Southern (84-73), Florida State (81-69) and St Mary's (60-44). This is a team that was expected to make the NCAA Tournament and are out to prove something in the NIT. 

BYU is a quality team and have also won 3 straight to reach the semifinals. However, they were fortunate to get by Virginia Tech (80-77) and had to hold on for a 88-82 win over Creighton. The Cougars were just 10-8 on the road and will be playing a long way from home in this one. 

Offensively, BYU comes in averaging an impressive 84.0 ppg. A big part of that is their 3-point shooting, as they average 9 makes a game and are shooting 38.4% from long-distance. Valparaiso is a defensive juggernaut, as they only give up 62.2 ppg. They do an excellent job of limiting opponents from the outside. They only give up an average of 6 made 3-pointers per game and are holding opponents to just 32.7% shooting from behind the 3-point line. 

On the flip side of this, the Crusaders average 75.7 ppg and will be taking on a BYU defense that gives up 75.4 ppg on the road. I'll take my chances on the team that will have the much easier time offensively and defense is one thing that always travels well. BYU is also just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games in post-season tournament play, while Valpo is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 with a line of +3 to -3. Lay the points! 

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Grizzlies +

The Grizzlies are currently sitting 5th in the west standings, but injuries have them flying under the radar to close out the season. Memphis desperately needs to secure a playoff spot, so they can turn their focus to getting healthy for the postseason. 

This is definitely a game the Grizzlies can win, even though the books have them listed as a big home dog. San Antonio will be resting Duncan, Parker and Ginobili, plus there figures to be a good chance that Kawhi Leonard sits this one out. Either way, it should allow Memphis to keep this game close. Keep in mind they just lost at San Antonio by just 6-points as a 13-point road dog in their last contest and that was with Parker, Ginobili and Duncan all playing. 

Memphis is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 off a SU loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game. San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 on the road against a team with a winning home record. Take the points! 

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Bulls + 

The Bulls are being way undervalued here due to their recent performances. Chicago followed up consecutive losses to the Knicks in a home-and-home set with an ugly 89-111 loss at Orlando on Saturday. Chicago is now a full 2 games back of the 8th and final playoff spot in the east and simply can't afford to lose this game.

Atlanta has been playing extremely well of late, as they have gone 13-3 over their last 16 games, but I just don't see the Hawks matching the intensity of the Bulls in this one. Atlanta will be playing their 2nd straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 days. As poorly as Chicago has been playing, they are still a respectable 24-13 at home. 

Chicago did lose the most recent matchup in Atlanta 88-103, but are 34-19 ATS in their last 53 when revenging a loss of 10 or more points. The Bulls also seem to step up against the better teams. Chicago is 30-17 ATS in their last 47 against teams who are outscoring opponents by 3+ points/game. Take the points! 

5* Thunder/Raptors NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors +

The Raptors are showing exceptional value here as a home dog against the Thunder. Toronto is a dominant 28-8 at home this season and simply put should not be getting points on their home floor. Oklahoma City has won 7 straight, but really don't have anything to gain in the standings, as they are all but locked into the No. 3 seed in the west.

Toronto on the other hand is just 2.5-games back of Cleveland for the top spot in the east. Either way I expect a max effort here from the Raptors against a top level opponent, especially knowing that they are underdogs on their home floor. I expect Toronto's defense to be the difference in this one. The Raptors are giving up just 98.1 ppg at home, while OKC is allowing a staggering 106.2 ppg on the road. 

Thunder are just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games after winning 6 or 7 of their last 8 and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 road games off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Raptors on the other hand are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a winning record. Take the points! 

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Wizards - 

Washington is 3-games back of the final playoff spot in the east with just 10 games left on the schedule. To say this is a must-win game against the Lakers is an understatement, as Washington can't like their chances in their next game at Golden State. I look for the Wizards to treat this like a playoff game and that should be more than enough to take down the Lakers and cover this spread. 

We are getting some value here due to the Wizards coming in off an ugly home loss to the Timberwolves as a 9-point favorite, which followed a 21-point home loss to the Hawks. Los Angeles is just playing out the season at this point and haven't shown much signs of life. Last time out they got beat by the Nuggets at home by 11. The Lakers are just 7-30 in their last 37 overall. 

Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record. They are also just 1-3 ATS as a home dog of 6.5 to 9 points this season and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 after 2 straight games where both teams scored 100+ points. Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after 2 straight games allowing their opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off 2 or more consecutive home losses. Lay the points! 

5* No Limit NCAA Tournament *BEST BET* on Notre Dame + 

These two teams met twice already. Notre Dame won at home 80-76 back on Feb. 6, but were destroyed 47-78 in the ACC Tournament. That ugly loss in the most recent matchup combined with the Tar Heels recent rout of Indiana has created some decent value here on the Irish. Keep in mind that Notre Dame went on a ridiculous 24-0 run and the Irish shot a miserable 30% from the field. 

You can overreact to one game and I don't think it's out of the question that Notre Dame pulls off the upset. Either way I like them to keep it within double-digits. Keep in mind it's a lot harder to blowout a team from the same conference in the Big Dance, as each team knows what the opponent wants to do on both sides of the ball. 

Underdogs this deep in the tournament are typically a wise investment and Notre Dame is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a neutral court underdog over the last 3 seasons. Irish are also 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games against teams who shoot 45% or better from the field and hold opponents to 42% or worse. Take the points! 

5* NCAA Tournament Total of the Year on Kansas/Villanova UNDER

This is going to seem like a low total based on what these two teams have done offensively in their first three games of the tournament. Villanova has scored 86, 87 and 92 points, while Kansas has put up 105, 73 and 79. The key is what these two teams have done defensively. 

The Wildcats are only giving up an average of 64.3 ppg in the tournament and Kansas is allowing just 67.7 ppg. I look for the defenses to outperform the offenses in this one, especially with the magnitude of this game and the winner going to the Final 4. Opponents are shooting just 39.7% against the Jayhawks on the season and that's saying something given the talent they face in the Big 12. Offensively Kansas shoots 42.2% from the 3-point line, but that plays into the strength of the Villanova defense, which has held opponents to just 33.9% shooting from long distance. 

UNDER is 17-4 in Kansas' last 21 games after after 15+ games against teams who shoot 45% or better from the field and 11-4 on the season against teams outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game. UNDER is also 10-2 in the Jayhawks last 12 games with a line of +3 to -3 and 8-2 in their last 10 off 2 straight wins by 10 or more points. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA No-Doubt ATS Blowout on Jazz -

This might seem like a big number for Utah to be laying on the road, but the situation heavily favors the Jazz to not to turn this into a blowout. Utah is currently sitting tied with the Mavericks for the 8th and final playoff spot in the west, while Minnesota is just playing out the season. That's a big advantage for the Jazz with the Timberwolves in a huge letdown spot. 

Minnesota went on the road and pulled off a big upset last night, defeating the Wizards 132-129 as a 9-point underdog. The key is the game went into double-overtime. All 5 starters for the Timberwolves logged 40+ minutes. Coming out with any kind of motivation will be difficult to say the least, especially against a team like the Jazz who get after you defensively. 

Minnesota is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 when playing on 0 days of rest, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 125 or more and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after their starting 5 combined for 160 or more minutes (combined for 220). Utah is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a losing record. Lay the points!

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Pistons - 

The Pistons are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Hawks. Both teams are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, which gives Detroit a big advantage playing at home. The Pistons are also coming into this game red-hot with 5 straight wins and are a solid 24-12 at home. 

It's important to note how both of these teams have responded in this spot. Atlanta has lost both times this season when playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road after playing the first at home. Detroit on the other hand has been money on no rest at home, going 7-1 ATS in their last 8. 

Another key factor here is motivation. Detroit is fighting for their playoff lives and have revenge on their mind from a heartbreaking 114-118 home loss to Detroit back on 3/16. Pistons are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games after 2 or more consecutive games that have gone over the total, 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games after playing a game as a favorite and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take the Pistons!