3* NBA *BEST BET* on Blazers -7.5
Expect a letdown from the Kings as they head to Portland following a big win over the Lakers. Portland has won nine of 10 meetings with Sacramento since the start of the 2008-09 season, and I expect its dominance over the Kings to continue.

The Kings are a lousy 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing without a day of rest while the Trail Blazers are an impressive 43-21-1 ATS in their last 65 games playing on 0 days' rest. The Blazers are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

The Trail Blazers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll lay the number.

3* NCAAB Big East SMASH (ESPN2) on Pitt -1
I know Notre Dame's home court has provided one of the best advantages in the country, but with Tim Abromaitis out for season, Pitt is definitely the better team. Motivated by a bad loss to Wagner last game, expect the Panthers to prove it tonight.

Notre Dame has been overvalued all season and is 0-6-1 ATS in lined games as a result. In 3 contests against ranked foes (Mizzou, Gonzaga, Indiana), the Irish have been outscored by average of 20.0 points.

The Panthers are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite.

The Fighting Irish are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games, 0-4-2 ATS in their last 6 home games, 0-5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a win and 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Pound Pitt.

3* NBA *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Warriors +6.5
Motivated by last night's second-half collapse, I expect the Warriors to give the Bulls all they can handle tonight. Chicago used a lot of energy in coming back from 11 down with under 4 minutes remaining to defeat the Lakers 88-87 last night. That big win sets the Bulls up for a letdown here.

The Bulls have had trouble at Golden State, where they have lost 2 straight and 10 of their last 14. The Bulls lost by 17 points at Golden State in 2010 and by 11 points there last season. The home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Bulls are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings at Golden State.

The Warriors are 36-14-3 ATS in their last 52 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Take the Warriors.

3* NBA SMASH on T-Wolves +5.5
Playing in Minnesota has been no picnic for Oklahoma City, and it gets no easier for the Thunder tonight.

3 of the last 4 meetings between these two in Minnesota have been decided by 2 or fewer points. The Wolves have been able to take the Thunder down to the wire at home in recent years despite inferior guard play. Guard play should no longer be an issue for the T-Wolves with Ricky Rubio set to make his much-anticipated debut and J.J. Barea coming over from NBA champion Dallas.

Playing on the road without a day of rest is never an easy task. Plus, the Thunder are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. Take the T-Wolves.

3* NBA Christmas Gift on Warriors +6
Even if Stephen Curry isn't able to go, I still think the Warriors are showing excellent value catching this many points at home.

Chris Paul will make the Clippers a better team by season's end, but it's going to take time for him to build chemistry with his new set of teammates. The Warriors will be a more cohesive unit Sunday night, and that gives them an excellent opportunity to pull off the upset.

The Clippers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. The Warriors are 36-13-3 ATS in their last 52 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Warriors have either won or lost by 4 points or less in 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series. The Clippers are 2-5 ATS in those 7 meetings and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings at Golden State. Take the points.

3* NCAAB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on George Mason -6.5
George Mason fits into a very profitable situation this evening. Consider that plays on a favorite after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive lined games, provided it is matched up against an opponent that has successfully covered the spread in 4 or more consecutive games, are 45-16 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting these parameters have been favored by an average of 7.4 points and have won by an average of 11.8.

The fact George Mason enters off an upset loss actually bodes well for us. Consider that the Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a defeat.

George Mason has been a terrific investment at home recently, going 13-5 ATS in its last 18 lined home games and winning these contests by an average of 13.9 points. It is even 29-12 ATS in its last 41 home games when playing with one or less days' rest. It has won these contests by an average of 14.1 points. Lay the points.

5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Cal Santa Barbara +11.5
UC Santa Barbara is a better team than its 5-4 record leads you to believe. BYU, meanwhile, isn't as good as its 9-3 mark indicates. The Cougars have been getting by without Jimmer Fredette, but they'll wish they had him on the floor tonight. That's because Santa Barbara's Orlando Johnson and James Nunnally are better players than anyone BYU has.

Prior to getting blown out by 20 at Cal, UCSB's only defeats were overtime losses to SDSU and UNLV and a 7-point loss to Washington. Those are 3 quality squads. The Gauchos simply didn't play well against Cal and took it on the chin, but that will motivate them here. Consider that UCSB is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games following a blowout loss by 20 points or more. It has won by an average score of 67.5 to 62.5 in this spot. It is also 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games after being held to 55 points or less, winning by an average score of 66.6 to 57.7 in this situation.

BYU's 15-point win and cover over Buffalo also plays a part in this inflated line, but keep in mind the Cougars needed 13 3-point makes to get the job done. Teams don't go off like that from deep very often, which is backed up by the fact BYU is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after a game where it made 13 or more 3-point shots. Take the points as UCSB gives the Cougars all they want and more.

3* NCAAB SMASH on UT Arlington +6
Arlington isn't quite getting the respect it deserves from odds makers in tonight's neutral floor battle. This experienced team, which returns 4 starters, played 6th-ranked Baylor to a 10-point game on the road and did so while only shooting 35.4% from the floor.

Having played teams like Baylor and Texas, the Mavericks won't be intimidated in the least this evening.

Kent State has been overvalued all season. It has been favored in each of its last 7 games but has covered the spread just twice in those contests. The Golden Flashes aren't a high-scoring team. They only average 68.0 ppg. With this in mind, I like the high-scoring Mavs, who average 77.3 ppg, to give Kent State a game.

Plays against neutral court teams (Kent State in this case) that have gone under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team, are 39-13 ATS since 1997. Teams in this situation are only winning by an average of 3.1 points.

In addition, the Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog. Take the points.

3* NCAAB National TV SMASH on Bucknell +19.5
Syracuse is being overvalued the way one would expect a No. 1 ranked team to be, and Bucknell has the talent and experience to hang around.

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points after 9 or more consecutive wins, on Tuesday nights, are 22-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 17.1 points but have won by just 11.3 points on average.

The Orange are 93-114 ATS all-time as a home favorite under coach Boeheim and 18-30 ATS all-time in home games after 6 or more consecutive wins under Boeheim. The value clearly lies with Bucknell this evening.

5* NCAAB *TOP DOG* on Towson +13
A 10-day layoff has slowed Manhattan's momentum, giving a hungry Towson team an opportunity to pick up its first win of the season tonight. Manhattan is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games when playing with 7 or more days' rest. Towson State played a game last week so it won't be showing as much rust. It is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games when playing with 5 or 6 days' rest.

The Jaspers have been a poor investment when laying points, going 18-39-1 ATS in their last 58 games as a favorite. They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.

Also, plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after 8 or more consecutive losses, playing only their 2nd game in 8 days, are an impressive 90-47 ATS since 1997. These teams have been underdogs of 13.7 points on average but have lost by just 11.7 points on average.

This is a good spot for the Tigers. Look for them to keep this one close.

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPNU) on Davidson +13.5
This young Kansas team is getting a little too much respect here against an experienced Davidson squad because of its win over No. 2 Ohio State, which was playing without Jared Sullinger. The Jayhawks won't have the same home-court advantage with this game being playing in Kansas City, and Davidson will be hungry as it checks in off back-to-back defeats.

The Jayhawks and Wildcats have played one like opponent - Duke. Kansas lost to Duke by 7 on a neutral floor. Davidson lost to the Blue Devils by 13 in a true road game. This shows us Davidson is capable of playing with Kansas this evening.

Davidson is a team that does the little things well. One of those things is free throw shooting. The Wildcats average 24 free throw attempts per game and make 19 of those for an 80.4% average. This is significant because Self's Kansas teams are 0-6 ATS all-time when playing away from Lawrence against excellent free throw shooting teams that make them at a rate of 77% or better. Kansas has only defeated these foes by an average of 2.0 points.

It is also worth noting that the Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Big 12. Take Davidson.

3* Saturday NCAAB SMASH (ESPN2) on Notre Dame +9
This is a letdown spot for Indiana following such a big win over Kentucky. Odds makers have overreacted to that win with this line, and I believe we can take advantage in this neutral court battle.

Neutral floors have not treated the Hoosiers well as they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. They are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a favorite.

It's hard not to like the Irish catching this many points as they are 61-45 ATS as an underdog under coach Brey. It's also worth noting that the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series.

The fact Indiana is 5-0 ATS in all lined games this season actually bodes well for us considering it is just 4-12 ATS under coach Crean after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games.

Indiana allowed Kentucky to shoot 55.6% from the floor but was fortunate enough to shoot 60% from 3-point range and have Kentucky turn it over 18 times. The Hoosiers likely won't be able to get the Irish to cough it up near that many times. Notre Dame has had 13 or fewer turnovers in 10 of 11 games this season and 10 or less in 7 of its last 9 contests.

Kentucky only made 2 of 7 3-point shots against Indiana. We can expect the Irish to be good from distance a lot more than that as they average 7 3-point makes per game. We'll take the points as Notre Dame takes care of the ball and hits enough 3's to keep this one close.

5* NCAAB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Cal Santa Barbara +8
Washington isn't the same team it was last season when it advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament. It lost three seniors from that team that accounted for nearly 50 points per game. As if those losses aren't enough of a blow, the Huskies will be without starting center Aziz N'Diaye this evening. N'Diaye, who sprained his knee last game, leads the team with 8.8 boards per contest and also chips in 7.1 points.

UC Santa Barbara is an experienced team that made a trip to the Big Dance last year as well. It returns its key nucleus of Orlando Johnson, James Nunnally and Jaime Serna, who are all averaging in double figures in scoring this season.

The Huskies haven't been a good investment at home, where they are typically overvalued, going 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. They are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. We'll take the points.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on George Washington -6.5
Motivated by 4 consecutive defeats, expect GW to take out its frustrations on a Bradley team that is 0-3 SU and ATS when playing away from home this season. The Braves lost by 17 at Wyoming in their only true road game, and I see another double-digit defeat coming for them here. The Braves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

The Colonials were crushed by 35 at Syracuse Saturday, a butt-kicking that can't be sitting well. Fortunately for us, taking GW following such a lopsided loss has been a money investment. Consider the Colonials are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of more than 20 points.

GW gets after it on defense. It has held its opponents to 33.8% shooting on the year. That doesn't bode well for Bradley, who is 2-14 ATS versus good defensive teams that hold their foes to 42% shooting or worse since the beginning of last season. Bradley has lost these games by an average of 10.9 points. Take GW.

4* NCAAB *SUPER SYSTEM SMOKER* on N. Illinois +12
Northern Illinois fits into a very profitable system tonight.

Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after 8 or more consecutive losses, provided they are playing only their 2nd game in 8 days, are 90-46 (66.2%) ATS since 1997.

It is also worth noting that the Blue Demons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points while the Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. In addition, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these teams.

As a 9.5-point dog last year, NIU played DePaul to a 2-point game on the road for an easy cover. Playing at home and looking to find the win column for the first time this season, expect the Huskies to give the Blue Demons a game again this year.

4* National TV SMASH (ESPN2) on Tennessee +3.5
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats and last year's loss to the Cougars, expect Tennessee to take care of business tonight.

Tennessee is 1-3 when playing away from home this season but 3-1 ATS in those games. Also, while Austin Peay shot the lights out last game (59.1%) to hand the Vols a loss, their other losses have come to quality foes. The Vols especially showed well in games against Duke, Memphis and Pittsburgh. College of Charleston is yet to play a team of the caliber of those three, and it is hasn't even played a team of the caliber of Tennessee (in my opinion).

The Volunteers are a solid 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog and 29-13-1 ATS in their last 43 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Look for this hungry Tennessee team to pull off the minor upset tonight.

5* 'Never Lost' NCAAB *TOP DOG* on Rider +5.5
This is Rider's last home game before playing 4 in a row on the road, and I expect it to make the most of it.

The fact Rider was kicked by Florida - one of the top teams in the country - last game actually bodes well for us here. Consider that Rider is 6-0 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half since the beginning of the 2009 season. It is winning by an average score of 75.8 to 71.2 in this situation.

It is also worth noting Rider is 7-0 ATS all-time under coach Dempsey as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. The Broncs aren't just covering the spread in these games, they're winning them outright by an average of 4.7 points.

Princeton has played 4 true road games this season and has been an underdog of at least 5.5 points in all of them. Now, it's laying 5.5 on the road. That's a big jump, one I don't believe it will be able to cover against a motivated Rider squad that's better than it's showed so far.

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Central Michigan +16.5
I believe the Golden Gophers are getting a little too much respect from odds makers here. We're talking about a team that is just 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 home games, 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games as a favorite of 13.0 points or more.

Minnesota is only winning by an average of 15.1 at home this season. It has won by 17 points or more just twice on the season. The Golden Gophers don't bury many teams because they average just 4 3-point makes per game and shoot under 70 percent from the foul line.

The Gophers played well in a 22-point win over St. Peter's last game. They were especially good defensively in the first half, holding St. Pete's to just 23 points. This actually bodes well for us tonight considering Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in home games since the beginning of last season after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game. The Gophers are only winning by an average of 7.4 points in this situation. Take the Chippewas.

3* NCAAB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Portland +4.5
Portland gets the call tonight as plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a road loss by 20 points or more, in December games, are an impressive 69-33 ATS the last 5 seasons.

Ohio is 6-1 on the season and overvalued because of it. It has especially been overvalued versus teams that shoot 42% or worse and allow their opponents to shoot 45% or better. Since coach Groce has been at the helm, fading the Bobcats against such foes has produced a perfect 6-0 ATS record.

In addition, the Bobcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. The Pilots are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 20 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the points.

5* NCAAB Game of the Week on Drexel -5.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses on the road, expect Drexel to take care of business in its first home game of the season.

The fact Drexel enters off a road loss to Delaware is significant because the Dragons are 17-8 ATS all-time under coach Flint when playing at home following a road loss to a conference rival. The Dragons have won these games by an average of 7.9 points.

Drexel is 21-11 ATS all-time under coach Flint when playing at home following any road loss, winning in this situation by an average of 9.5 points.

The Dragons are also 22-12 ATS under coach Flint in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games. This trend is 9-1 ATS since the beginning of the 2009 season and carries an average winning margin of 10.7 points. Lay the points with Drexel.

3* NCAAB *FRIDAY NIGHT FEAST* on Idaho +13
Idaho fits into a very profitable system this evening. Consider that plays on underdogs of 10 or more points off an upset loss and playing on one or less days' rest are 124-71 ATS since 1997. That's a 63.6% success rate the last 14 years. Plus, this system is already 3-1 ATS this season.

In addition, the Vandals have been a phenomenal investment on the road. They are 3-0 ATS in road games this season and 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 road games. Plus, the Vandals are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog.

Oregon State is just 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as a home favorite of 13.0 points or more. Take Idaho and the points tonight.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPNU) on Missouri State -4
Fueled by back-to-back losses on the road and further motivated by last season's loss at Oklahoma State, expect the Bears to have their revenge at home tonight.

The Cowboys have been a downright terrible road investment as they are 21-44-2 ATS in their last 67 road games. They are 15-39-2 ATS in their last 56 games as a road underdog and 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games following three or more consecutive home games.

The Cowboys are just 2-9 ATS when playing away from home since the beginning of last season, 1-8 ATS as a road underdog or pick since the start of last season and 0-7 ATS in road games after playing their last lined game as a home favorite since the beginning of last year.

The Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less, and we'll lay the points with them in this extremely motivated spot tonight.

4* NCAAB *TOP DOG* on Tulsa +3.5
Tulsa has lost 5 of its last 6 but only one of those defeats came at home and none of them came by more than 5 points. Motivated by a 3-game losing streak and further motivated by last season's 3-point loss at Wichita St., expect Tulsa to take care of business tonight.

This is Wichita State's first true road game of the season and it comes following a big win over UNLV. Riding high following that victory, I see a letdown coming for the Shockers.

Tulsa is an impressive 9-2 ATS since the beginning of last season when matched up against very good teams that outscore their opponents by an average of 8 points or more per game.

Tulsa's ability to rebound the basketball is what really gives it the edge in this one. Consider that Wichita State is 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Marshall vs. dominant rebounding teams that outrebound opponents by 7 or more per game. The Shockers have lost to these teams by an average of 7.5 points. Take Tulsa.

4* Under the Radar Blowout on George Washington -5.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats to quality K-State and Virginia Commonwealth squads on the road and on a neutral floor respectively, expect the Colonials to roll in their first true home game in nearly a month.

This is the perfect time to ride GW as it is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a loss and 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games after trailing in its previous game by 15 or more points at the half.

The Colonials are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600 and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

In addition, the Greyhounds are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog.

Loyola hasn't been tested since its season-opening double-digit loss to Wake Forest and it won't survive this test tonight.

3* NCAAB SMASH on SIU Edwardsville +15.5
This isn't a favorable spot for Ball State, which is coming off a 23-point win over Tennessee-Martin and will no doubt be looking ahead to Saturday's big showdown with national runner-up and in-state rival Butler. Butler crushed Ball State by 33 points last season, and the Cards will be out for revenge.

SIU Edwardsville will be out for revenge tonight as it looks to atone for last season's 30-point loss to Ball State. Because that was such a lopsided win for the Cards, you can bet SIU Edwardsville won't have their full attention.

Ball State destroyed Tennessee-Martin last game as it shot 51.9% from the field, but don't count on the hot shooting continue. Prior to that game, the Cards averaged 39.9% shooting and hadn't shot better than 46% in any contest.

The Cardinals have been a very poor investment in non-conference action, going 27-55-1 ATS in their last 83 non-conference games.

Also, the Cougars make 8 3's per game and shoot them at a nearly 40% clip. This doesn't bode well for Ball State, which is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game. Take the points.

3* NCAAB SMASH on Austin Peay -3.5
Austin Peay, which will have its top 3 scorers from last year's 20-win team on the floor tonight, is 0-9 out of the gate and will be hungry to record its first win of the season. It is worth mentioning that a tough schedule has been partly responsible for the slow start.

Arkansas State, which lost its top 4 scorers from last season's 17-win squad, enters with the better record (3-4) and yet it is catching points. The Red Wolves have played a relatively soft schedule, winning the two games they were supposed to win before upsetting St. Bonaventure.

Odds makers believe the Governors will pick up their first win of the season here and I have to agree.

An evaluation of last year's matchups against like opponents indicates Austin Peay is the better side. These two both faced Memphis and SE Missouri State last season. Austin Peay played SE Missouri State 3 times and defeated it by at least 16 points in each. Arkansas State won its matchup with SEMS by just 6 points. Also, the Governors played Memphis to a 2-point game on the road while the Red Wolves lost at Memphis by 7 points.

The Red Wolves are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Governors are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with an overall losing record.

Lastly, plays on a home team that averages 63-67 ppg and allowed 85 points or more in its last game, provided it is matched up against a team that allows 63 or fewer ppg, are 26-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.

3* Saturday NCAAB *BEST BET* on William & Mary +14
Due to a combination of William & Mary's 31-point loss to Richmond and Georgia State's 26-point win over Florida International, the Tribe are being undervalued here.

William & Mary returns 4 starters from last year's team, which defeated the Panthers by 4 points. In fact, the Tribe have either won or lost by no more than 9 points in any of the last 10 meetings in this series.

Georgia State has been playing good defense during its winning streak, but keep in mind William & Mary is 33-12 ATS in its last 45 road games versus good defensive teams allowing 64 points or fewer per game. The Tribe are only losing by an average of 7.7 points in this situation.

The Tribe are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home, and the Panthers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Also, the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll take the points.

3* NCAAB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Nevada +4.5
Nevada returns all 5 starters from last year's team, which was embarrassed with a 30-point loss at Washington last year. That loss is all the motivation the Wolf Pack need tonight.

Washington only returns two starters from last year's squad and will really miss leading scorer Isaiah Thomas in this one. That's because Nevada's Malik Story is one of the best guards in the country no one is talking about.

The Huskies are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. We'll take the points as this experienced Nevada team has an excellent chance to pull off the upset.

5* NCAAB Game of the Week on Canisius +13.5
Motivated by back-to-back losses and playing at home for the first time this season, expect Canisius to give an Iona team playing its first true road contest a game.

Canisius upset the Gaels at home last season with a 2-point win. It has won 3 of the last 5 at home in this series and the 2 losses during this span have come by just 1 and 5 points.

The Gaels are 19-42-5 ATS in their last 66 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. They are also 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 13.0 points or more and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 13.0 or more.

The Golden Griffins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 13.0 points or more.

The underdog is 7-1-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two. The Gaels are 1-8-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings at Canisius. We'll take the points.

3* NCAAB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on UC Santa Barbara +3.5
This is a major letdown spot for UNLV after knocking off No. 1 ranked North Carolina. That win also increased the size of the target on UNLV's back.

UCSB will be lacking no confidence here as it has defeated the Runnin' Rebels 3 straight times. It won by 6 on the road last season.

The Runnin' Rebels are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win. The Gauchos are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

This is UNLV's first true road game of the season, and it happens to come against a team that has had its number. We'll take the home dog.

3* NCAAB Soft Line Slaughter on UAB -3
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect the Blazers to take their frustrations out on a S. Alabama squad they have defeated 6 straight times by an average of 13.7 points. It's worth noting that none of those 6 wins came by fewer than 5 points.

The Blazers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or less.

The Jaguars are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 home games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Conference USA.

S. Alabama is also 0-6 ATS since the start of the 2009 season versus very good defensive teams that hold their opponents to 39% shooting or worse. It's losing to these foes by an average of 20.5 points. Lay the number.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Florida State +6
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, expect the Seminoles to give Michigan State all it wants and more tonight.

The Spartans are coming off a 32-point win at Eastern Michigan but are 0-8 ATS after a blowout win by 30 points or more since the start of the 2009 season.

The Spartans have been a poor investment when laying points, especially at home, where they are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.

The Seminoles are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss.

FSU was one of the best defensive teams in the country last season and nothing has changed. The Noles rank 8th nationally in field goal percentage defense, allowing their foes to shoot just 33.7%.

Michigan State has struggled offensively early on. It ranks 221st in the country in field goal percentage. We'll take the points.

3* NCAAB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Loyola Marymount +9
St. Louis' fast start has put it in the top 25 for the first time since the 1993-94 season. Now, it heads to Loyola Marymount overvalued and with a big target on its back.

St. Louis is an experienced team, but its early season success is getting a bit overblown. The Billikens have been outrebounded in each of their last 5 games, but have been bailed out by shooting over 50% as a team for the season.

The shots didn't fall as well for St. Louis in its only other true road game this season. It shot 42.3% at Southern Illinois and was fortunate the Salukis couldn't throw it in the ocean, shooting just 20.5% from the field. The Billikens likely won't be able to count on poor shooting from Loyola this evening as the Lions have shot nearly 48% in back-to-back wins.

Loyola Marymount showed how well it can play when it knocked off then-No. 17 UCLA 69-58 in its season opener Nov. 1. UCLA has been up and down early, but the Bruins have every bit as much talent as St. Louis.

The Billikens have been a poor investment on the road in non-conference action under coach Majerus at just 6-18 ATS in this situation with an average losing margin of 4.3 points. We'll take the home dog.

3* Big Ten/ACC Challenge SMASH (ESPN) on Maryland +4.5
The Illini are young and inexperienced - two things that won't bode well for them in their first true road game of the season.

The Terrapins played Illinois to a 4-point game on a neutral floor last season, and I like their chances of pulling off the upset at home tonight. Illinois needed to shoot 10 of 19 from three-point range in last year's meeting to get the win. I don't see an Illini team making just 6 threes a game at a 35.9% clip going off again.

Last year's Illinois squad was very experienced with Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale making the majority of the plays. These three fixtures have all moved on.

Maryland lost Jordan Williams, but fortunately brings back Terrell Stoglin, who can score points in bunches. He had 17 against Illinois last year.

It's been best to fade the Illini when they're laying points on the road. After all, they're 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games as a favorite.

Also, Illinois is 0-7 ATS since the beginning of the 2009 season when checking into a game off a home win in which it scored 85 points or more. The Illini have won in this situation but only by an average of 2.5 points.

Illinois is also 0-7 ATS since the start of 2009 in road games after leading in its previous game by 15 points or more at the half. It's lost by an average of 3.6 points in this situation. We'll take the Terps.

3* NCAAB *Marquee Matchup* (ESPN2) on Vandy -3
This Vandy team is talented, deep and experienced, and it has been a force to be reckoned with at home in non-conference play. In fact, the Commodores have won 38 of 41 home games against non-conference opponents since 2007.

Xavier is a solid team, but start guard Tu Holloway isn't 100%. He took only 4 shots against Georgia due to a finger injury. The Musketeers didn't need his offense against the Dawgs, but they will tonight.

Xavier has lost its last four road games against ranked opponents. Also, the Musketeers are 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Mack in road games when matched up against an opponent carrying a win percentage better than 80%. They have lost these games by an average of 9.1 points. Take Vandy.

3* NCAAB *TOP DOG* on W. Michigan +17
The Broncos are a much better team than they have showed thus far. They bring back all 5 starters from a team that won the MAC West last year and are picked to win it again.

I expect to see this team play harder than it has all season after getting embarrassed with a 43-point loss at Purdue. The Broncos shot an unheard of 17.8% from the field (8 of 45) in that game. Rest assured, the shots will fall much easier this afternoon.

Robert Sacre has been a beast for the Zags, but he won't get whatever he wants in this one. Western Michigan big man Matt Stainbrook will be motivated following the worst performance of his career and further motivated by the challenge of matching up with Sacre. Stainbrook averaged 19.5 points and 8.5 boards in the opening four games before being held scoreless with one rebound in 16 foul-plagued minutes of Wednesday's 80-37 loss.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, provided they have won 20% or less of their games on the season, are 32-10 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have been underdogs of 14.5 points on average but have only lost by an average of 10.8. We'll take the points.

3* NCAAB *CRUNCH TIME BAILOUT* on Hawaii -10
Off back-to-back defeats, including an upset loss to E. Washington last game, expect this experienced Hawaii team to take out their frustrations on a Pacific squad that doesn't return a single starter.

The Tigers have played Hawaii twice in the last 12 years. They lost to the Warriors by 11 points on a neutral floor in the most recent meeting, and they were blown out by 30 in their most recent trip to the island.

The Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Big West Conference.

The Tigers fell to 0-7 ATS in their last 7 lined games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 lined road games with a 24-point loss at Nevada on Nov. 17. We faded the Tigers as a 14-point dog for an easy cover that night and we'll fade them again here.

3* NCAAB *TOP DOG* on Youngstown State +9.5
I like Youngstown State catching close to double digits here because of the edge it has in terms of experience.

The Peguins return 5 of their top 7 scorers and four of those players are averaging better than 11 ppg this season.

The Nittany Lions have lost 4 of last year's top 5 scorers, including Taylor Battle, who averaged over 20 ppg. Tim Frazier, the lone returning starter, has stepped up, but the team has been far too reliant on him to score the points early on. He averages 20 ppg but no one else gets more than 7.4. Penn State's lack of offensive balance will be its Achilles' heel as more teams scheme to slow down Frazier.

The Penguins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the points.

3* NCAAB *TOP DOG* on UNC-Wilmington +7.5
Following a solid showing at Maryland in its opener, UNC Wilmington laid an egg in Dayton, shooting 34.5% from the field and committing 20 turnovers in a 25-point loss. Motivated by that poor showing, expect the Seahawks to take Marshall right down to the wire tonight in their first home game of the season.

Marshall has taken care of three straight inferior opponents on its home floor but things get much tougher tonight as it hits the road for the first time.

The Seahawks have been a phenomenal investment in non-conference play, going 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 non-conference contests. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points while the Thundering Herd are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. The Herd are also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.

In addition, Buzz Peterson's teams are 12-3 ATS all-time when coming off an embarrassing road loss in which they were held to less than 60 points. His teams have actually responded to win by an average of 9.8 points in this situation. We'll take the points.

3* NCAAB *TOP DOG* on UL Monroe +20
This is a big letdown spot for Mississippi State following back-to-back upset wins over Texas A&M and Arizona.

The Bulldogs have been a terrible investment as a favorite, going just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games when laying points. They are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 13.0 points or more. It's also worth noting that they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Sun Belt.

There are also a couple strong systems in play that stack the odds heavily against Mississippi State.

Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a team with a losing record, are 71-36 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation have been favored by an average of 19.8 points but have only won by an average of 17.2.

In addition, plays against home favorites of 20 or more points after going under the total by 18 or more points in their last three games, top level team winning 80% or more of their games on the season, are 21-2 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take the points.

3* Soft Line Slaughter on UMass -3.5
This game is all about revenge for the Minutemen, who lost at B.C. by 5 points last season. With 5 of last season's top scorers back, UMass should have its revenge.

The Eagles don't return a single starter and lost their 5 top scorers from last year's squad. To make matters worse, Patrick Heckmann, who scored 19 points in a win over New Hampshire, is still expected to be out with an ankle injury.

The Minutemen are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the ACC while the Eagles are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Atlantic 10. The Minutemen are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.

The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Minutemen are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings and 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Boston College. Lay the points.

3* Saturday NCAAB *BEST BET* on Cal State Northridge +13
Motivated by back-to-back defeats to start the season, look for Cal State Northridge to give the Broncos a game this afternoon.

Boise State is being overvalued here following its big win over Utah. We can't forget the Broncos lost the top 4 scorers from last year's team. That's 4 players who averaged 9.9 points or more.

After a quality showing at USC, the Matadors were beat up at Hawaii. That wasn't unexpected considering the island advantage the Warriors have. The dors haven't played since Monday, so they'll be itching to get on the floor and bounce back from a disappointing performance against Hawaii.

The Broncos are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a win of more than 20 points. They are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games and 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite. They're also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 13.0 points or more. Take the points.

5* NCAAB Game of the Week on Winthrop +18
Marquette rolled in its first two games, but it was helped out by opponents that don't do a very good job of taking card of the basketball. Mount St. Mary's turned it over 29 times and Norfolk State turned it over 25 times. Marquette faces a tougher challenge tonight against a Winthrop team that takes good care of the basketball and does a good job of controlling the tempo. Winthrop only has 23 turnovers through its first two games and committed only 10 giveaways versus Virginia Tuesday.

Winthrop lost that game by 21 points, but the game was much closer than the final score indicates. The score was tied at 44 with 9:37 remaining in the second half. Winthrop has retraced its steps and knows the mistakes it made down the stretch to allow the Cavs to pull away. It will be better prepared for tonight's matchup because of that game.

Plays on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after a loss by 15 points or more and matched up against an opponent that scored 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 115-66 ATS since 1997. Teams fitting into this situation have only lost by an average of 12.7 points.

Also, plays on neutral court teams underdogs after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more and matched up against an opponent that scored 80 points or more last game are 82-43 ATS since 1997. Teams fitting into this situation have only lost by an average of 7.5 points. Take Winthrop.

3* Thursday Night NCAAB Blowout on Nevada -14
Motivated by back-to-back losses to start the season, and further motivated by 4 straight losses to Pacific, expect the Wolf Pack to roll tonight.

Nevada returns all 5 starters from last year's team while Pacific doesn't return a single starter. In fact, it lost 7 players who averaged 5.5 points or more. The 2 players it brings back averaged 1.4 points or less.

After laying an egg against Missouri State in their opener, the Wolf Pack put forth a good performance against a quality UNLV team to get a cover. Now, they'll be ready to take out their frustrations over an 0-2 start versus an inferior foe this evening.

The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 overall and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.

Pacific is also 0-6 ATS all-time under coach Thomason when listed as a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points. It's lost these games by an average of 17.7 points. Lay the number.

5* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Princeton +9.5
Princeton showed some first-game jitters against Wagner, committing a ridiculous 28 turnovers. That performance was a blessing in disguise for the Tigers, who will no doubt be sharper tonight because of it.

Princeton has been one of the better investments in recent years, especially in the underdog role, because its ability to control the tempo with its half court style of play keeps it in games. In fact, the Tigers are 34-19 ATS in all lines games since the beginning of the 2009 season.

Getting more specific to tonight's unique situation, we find the Tigers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the ACC.

The Tigers are also 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points.

In addition, NC State is not at full strength. Top returning scorer C.J. Leslie doesn't return until Saturday. Take the points.

3* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on UCLA -9.5
Motivated by Friday's loss to Loyola Marymount, the Bruins will be out for blood this evening. There's no way they'll get caught overlooking MTSU because the Blue Raiders defeated Loyola Marymount Sunday.

I expect UCLA's season-opening wake-up call to serve it well. The suspension of Reeves Nelson is a further statement made by Ben Howland, and I expect his team to respond.

UCLA is 24-13 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points under Howland, whose teams are 11-2 ATS in home games following an upset loss since 1997.

Howland's teams are also 35-18 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more in all games he has coached since 1997.

The message has been received from their coach. The Bruins will no doubt be geared up for this one. We'll lay the points.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Southern Illinois +7
Motivated by a disappointing loss to Ohio Dominican in its season opener, expect Southern Illinois to bounce back strong tonight.

The Salukis will have an excellent opportunity to do so against a St. Louis team that has struggled on the road under Rick Majerus.

The Billikens are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 non-conference road games. They have dropped these 11 non-conference road games by an average of 9.7 points.

The dominance of the home team in this series also can't be ignored. Consider that the home team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We'll take the points as the Salukis take the Billikens right down to the wire.

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* on NC Greensboro +20.5
Look for this experienced NC Greensboro team, which returns 4 starters and 6 players who averaged at least 6.0 points, to bounce back from Friday's embarrassing loss to Tennessee.

The Spartans lost to the Vols by 29 points, but keep in mind that Tennessee went off from deep in that game, connecting on 15 of 24 three-point shots. That is a flukish total, and one that will inspire the Spartans to get after it a whole lot harder at the defensive end in this one.

Georgetown lost its top 2 scorers from last year's team and returns just 2 starters. After handling Savannah State and watching Tennessee crush NC Greensboro, I don't expect the Hoyas to give the Spartans their full attention. The Georgetown players are already thinking about their next game against Kansas.

Consider that plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points that are coming off a road loss, with 2 more starters returning from last year than their opponent, are 52-22 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation are losing by 11.5 points on average. It's also worth noting that this system is 30-8 ATS (79%) the last 3 seasons.

The Hoyas are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Spartans are 10-4-3 ATS in their last 17 games overall, 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 13.0 points or more. Take the points.

3* Sunday NCAAB *BEST BET* on UC Davis +20.5
The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games versus teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600. Look for this trend to continue here.

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points off an upset loss and playing with one or less days' rest are 121-70 ATS since 1997. That's a 63.4% cover rate the last 14 years. Teams fitting into this situation are only losing by an average of 12.4 points.

Motivated by back-to-back defeats to start the season, I'm expecting a great effort from the Aggies here. Plus, it will be tough for an inexperienced SDSU team to give UC Davis the attention it deserves. The Aztecs just beat Southern Utah 70-37. That Southern Utah team just upset Davis Friday. With this in mind, you can bet the Aztecs will be looking right past the Aggies and ahead to a matchup at Baylor Tuesday. We'll take the points.

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Evansville +3
Expect Butler to struggle early on as it tries to adjust to life without Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack. You might recall the Bulldogs struggling a little early last season as they were trying to adjust to life without NBA lottery pick Gordon Hayward.

As you know, Butler has made consecutive trips to the NCAA championship game. Evansville played Butler in each of those seasons. In 2009, the Purple Aces lost by just 4 points. Last year, they won on the road. Expect them to make it 2 in a row over the Bulldogs this afternoon.

Butler lost 53-50 in an exhibition game to Northern State, an NCAA Division II school from South Dakota. The Bulldogs clearly aren't at the level they were last season.

The Purple Aces are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. We'll take the points.

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPNU) on Columbia +24.5
Connecticut is almost always overvalued, and it is most certainly overvalued when coming off a national championship. Plenty of talent remains on Jim Calhoun's squad, but I believe it's going to take this team some time to adjust to life without Kemba Walker. We're talking about an experienced player who took every big shot all season long for this team.

Columbia returns four starters, including the Ivy League

3* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN2) on Lehigh +13
St. John's covered the spread in its first game because of a plus-17 turnover margin. Other than that, the Johnnies weren't all that impressive. They allowed William & Mary to shoot nearly 46% from the field and were outrebounded. If Lehigh can take care of the basketball, it can give St. John's a game tonight.

Lehigh is an experienced team with 4 starters returning, including Patriot League Preseason Player of the Year C.J. McCollum, who is the leading returning scorer in the nation after putting up 21.8 ppg last season. He is a pure scorer who can get his own shot almost any time. That's a huge asset when the shot clock is winding down.

There is some talent on St. John's, but this team is very young and inexperienced. It's going to go through ups and downs throughout the season, and I'm expecting it to struggle tonight against an experienced team.

Last season, these two played two like opponents (Wagner and Fordham), going 1-1 against them respectively. St, John's defeated Wagner by 8 points and Lehigh defeated it by 16 points. The Red Storm lost to Fordham by 3 points and the Hawks lost to it by 7 points. This just goes to show you Lehigh had the ability to play with St. John's last year when the Red Storm were a lot more experienced.

Lehigh is 6-0 ATS all-time in all lined games under coach Reed. Look for this trend to continue tonight.

4* NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPNU) on William & Mary +8.5
Expect St. John's to struggle this season, especially early on, after losing 10 seniors from last season's NCAA Tournament team. In fact, the Red Storm lost all but 3.7 percent of the scoring from last year's team. We're talking about a very inexperienced squad that will have to learn on the job. The fact coach Steve Lavin has been away recovering from prostate surgery hasn't done this young group any favors either.

W&M brings back a lot more experience and chemistry with four starters returning. Don't be fooled by the Tribe's 10-22 record last season. This is a competitive team that lost 10 games by 5 points or fewer.

The Tribe are an impressive 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games as an underdog, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing away from home as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus the Big East. The Red Storm are a poor 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Take the Tribe and the points.

5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* (Gm 6, ABC) on Heat -4.5
I can't see Dallas winning three in a row in this series. The Heat are just too good. Plus, they'll have the home crowd behind them and they'll be playing with a sense of desperation in this do-or-die Game 6. Teams tend to play their best when desperate.

Miami played well enough to win Game 5 and led by 4 in the fourth down the stretch. The Heat likely would have held on to win that game had Dallas not continued its flukish 3-point shooting performance. The Mavs average 8 3-point makes on 37% shooting for the season but shot a ridiculous 13 of 19 (68.4%) from deep in Game 5. With Miami stepping up the defensive intensity and with a change of venue for Dallas, I can't see the three balls falling the same way here. That gives Miami the edge.

The Heat are 9-1 at home in these playoffs. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Expect Miami to take care of business tonight to extend the series. Lay the points.

5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* (Gm 5, ABC) on Heat +1.5
Despite outplaying Dallas for the majority of each game, the series is tied 2-2. After feeling like they gave away Game 4, you can bet Miami will show up tonight.

Miami hasn't dropped consecutive games since early March, winning after all seven of their most recent losses by an average of 9.7 points. Miami has been exceptional in bounce back spots and I have no doubts we will see a much better performance from LeBron James tonight.

James scored only eight points on 11 shots in Game 4. It was the first time in 90 career playoff games that he failed to reach double-digits in points. Despite scoring nearly 19 points below his average, the Heat were right in the game until the end. That shows you how good this team really is. The two-time MVP will bounce back tonight and I expect him to be the difference.

The Mavericks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games while the Heat are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Heat are also 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 games in Dallas. Take Miami.

5* NBA Finals Game of the Year (ABC) on Mavericks pk
The Mavs are 7-2 at home in these playoffs and haven't lost back-to-back home games, provided there weren't any road games in between, since early January when Dirk Nowitzki was out with injury.

Miami, meanwhile, has not won back-to-back road games, provided there were no home games in between, in these playoffs. The Heat split the first pair of back-to-back road games in Philadelphia, Boston and Chicago and I fully expect this trend to continue.

This is a must-win game for the Mavs and they won't be lacking any confidence at home knowing they only lost by 2 points in Game 2 despite a lackluster performance.

The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss, Mavericks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.

In addition, plays on home teams when the line is +3 to -3, provided they are off an upset loss and both they and their opponent carry winning percentages between 60% and 75%, are 51-19 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 4.6 points.

I'm confident Dallas will be able to dig down deep just like they did in Game 2 and the result should be even more convincing on its home floor. I like the Mavs at -3 but really love them to win this game, so we'll take them on the money line tonight.

5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* (Gm 3, ABC) on Heat +2.5
Completely disgusted by the way they collapsed down the stretch in Game 2, expect the Heat to come storming back tonight.

Consider that Miami hasn't dropped consecutive games since early March, winning after all six of their most recent losses by an average of 11.7 points. In other words, this is a team that responds.

The Heat have been very good on the road down the stretch, going 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games as a result. It is also worth noting that the road team is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings in this matchup and the Heat are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Dallas.

With the exception of the last 7 minutes of Game 2, Miami's defense has stifled the Mavs. Expect the Heat to really bring the "D" tonight as they take Game 3 outright.

5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* on Mavericks +5
Dallas still hasn't gotten over its loss to Miami in the NBA Finals 5 years ago. Its Game 1 defeat was a reminder of that pain and those haunting memories will serve as the fuel for a Game 2 victory.

Right away, I like the fact that Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a loss. I also like that the road team is 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings and Dallas is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 meetings in Miami.

In addition, Dallas is 13-3 ATS in all playoff games this season, 20-7 ATS as a road underdog this season and 17-5 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season.

I went against the Mavs in Game 1 because I didn't think they'd be ready for Miami's defensive intensity, but now they've seen it. Look for Dallas to really push the ball tonight to get easy looks in transition and to take advantage of their depth while keeping Miami from digging in with its half-court defense. Take the Mavs and the points.

3* NBA Finals SMASH (ABC) on Heat -4.5
Home teams are 15-5 SU (12-8 ATS) in the last 20 Game 1s of the NBA Finals and I expect this trend to continue tonight.

Miami has been perfect at home in these playoffs, going 8-0 with wins of 8, 21, 6, 9, 11, 10, 11 and 8.

Dallas won both regular season meetings, but Miami has proven in these playoffs that we can throw regular season results out the window. Boston won 3 of 4 regular season meetings against Miami but the Heat won 4 of 5 against the Celtics in the East semis to take the series. Chicago won all 3 regular season meetings against Miami but the Heat won 4 of 5 against the Bulls in the East Finals.

The Mavs have not seen this good of a defensive team in these playoffs. Miami, meanwhile, should find easier scoring opportunities as Dallas is not as good defensively as Boston or Chicago. Lay the points with Miami in Game 1.

3* NBA Playoffs SMASH (TNT, Game 5) on Bulls -3
The Bulls are 42-7 in all home games this season, including 3-1 in home matchups with the Heat. Expect Chicago to rise to the occasion on its home floor to stave off elimination tonight.

History is on our side when you consider that plays on home favorites playing with triple revenge (3 straight losses to an opponent) in a game involving two good teams (win percentages of 60% to 75%) are 83-44 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 7.1 points. It is also worth noting that this system is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season.

In addition, Chicago is 16-4 ATS off 2 or more consecutive road losses over the last 3 seasons. The Bulls are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600, 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less and 13-3-2 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Heat, on the other hand, are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points.

Lastly, the home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this matchup. Take the Bulls at home tonight.

5* NBA Western Conference Playoffs Game of the Year on Mavericks -6.5
After blowing a 15-point lead with under 5 minutes remaining in Game 4 that would have tied the series, it will be extremely difficult for the Thunder to get back up, especially on the road. Expect the focused, experienced Mavs to close out the series in impressive fashion tonight.

Last series, the Mavs came from behind late to win Game 3 to put the Lakers on the brink of elimination. They wasted no time ending that series, completely crushing LA 122-86 in Game 4.

Dallas is 13-1 ATS in all playoff games this season and 8-1 ATS when leading in a playoff series this season. The Mavericks are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. It will be too much Dirk Nowitzki for the Thunder to handle yet again tonight. Lay the points.

4* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* (TNT) on Bulls +5
Chicago was right in Games 2 and 3 until the final minutes despite allowing Miami to shoot 47.1% and 50.7% respectively from the field. That kind of shooting has been unheard of against Chicago. The Bulls led the NBA in field goal percentage defense, only allowing opponents to shoot 43.0%. After back-to-back disappointing defensive efforts, expect the Bulls to really tighten the screws on their way to a Game 4 victory.

Chicago has now lost back-to-back games, something that has happened just 4 other times this season. In each of those 4 prior instances, the Bulls responded to snap their losing streak with wins of 5.3 points on average.

Chicago is 19-9 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 96.9 to 95.5. The Bulls are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Bulls and the points.

4* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Thunder -3.5
Clawing their way back from a 23-point deficit to make a game of it late in Game 3 does a lot for the confidence of the Thunder tonight. I expect this resilient team, which hasn't lost 2 in a row in nearly 2 months, to bounce back strong here.

History is certainly on OKC's side when you consider that plays on any team that is explosive offensively (scoring 103+ points/game on the season) after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 114-61 (65.1%) ATS since 1996. If the "play on" team is favored, this system tightens up to an impressive 51-23 (69%) ATS over the last 5 seasons with an average winning margin of 9.3 points.

Thunder are 44-21-1 ATS in their last 66 games following a SU loss, 24-14 ATS when out to avenge a loss to an opponent this season, 19-9 ATS off an upset loss the last 2 seasons and 18-7 ATS off a home loss over the last 2 seasons.

Durant did not play well in Game 3 and shot 0-of-8 from 3-point range. Rarely does he string together back-to-back poor performances. Look for the Thunder to bounce back in Game 4 behind a big night from Durant.

5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Bulls +5
The No. 1 seed in the East, which is 4-1 against Miami this season, is showing excellent value in the underdog role. The Bulls fell in Game 2 but haven't lost back-to-back games since Feb. 5 and 7.

The Bulls are an impressive 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog, 27-11 ATS in their last 38 games as a road underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Bulls are also 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a SU loss and 29-10 ATS in their last 39 games following an ATS loss.

In addition, Chicago is a strong 13-3 ATS when coming off an upset loss this season. It is winning by an average score of 100.1 to 89.4 in this situation.

I went large on Miami in Game 2, and it paid off, but the Bulls showed me something. For as poorly as they played, they were right in the game until LeBron James took over late. We can expect the Bulls to play much better in this bounce back spot, which means they should have an excellent chance to pull off the upset. Take the points.

4* Game 3 *Power Play* (ESPN) on Thunder -2.5
I don't read anything negative into the benching of Russell Westbrook in Game 2 because it worked. That move gives more confidence to the OKC bench and it also charges Westbrook to make better decisions late in the game. Westbrook is a competitor and I fully expect him to show why he should never come off the floor tonight.

Also, the Thunder have figured out the best way to play Dirk Nowitzki. They did a better job of not fouling him in Game 2 and forced him to be a passer a lot more often.

Dallas has not performed all that well on the road in these playoffs. It lost Games 3 and 4 at Portland in the first round and it was extremely fortunate to win Game 1 in LA in the semis.

The Mavericks are 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings in this series. Also, the Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Thunder are 6-1 at home in these playoffs. Lay the number.

5* Game 3 "Total" Dominator (ESPN) on Mavericks/Thunder UNDER 201
Neither team played particularly well on the defensive end in Games 1 and 2, but I expect that to change tonight. With each team looking to take control of the series, we should see more intensity and more heart on the defensive end this evening.

Consider that plays Under when the total is 200 to 209.5 on all teams looking to avenge a home loss to an opponent, good team winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, are 70-32 the last 5 seasons.

In addition, the Under is 4-1 in the Mavericks' last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 5-1 in the Thunder's last 6 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Under is also 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams in Oklahoma City. Take the Under.

4* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Thunder +5.5
Dallas could not have played better in Game 1 and it only won by 9 points. I'm confident the Thunder will make the proper adjustments to keep Game 2 even tighter.

OKC opted not to double-team Dirk Nowitzki in Game 1. That strategy may have turned out okay, but OKC fouled him way too much and he made them pay at the free throw line. Expect more double-teams on Dirk and less fouls on him in this one. These defensive adjustments will give the Thunder an excellent opportunity to take Game 2.

Going to the numbers, we find that this is an ideal spot to back the Thunder. Consider that OKC is 7-0 ATS this in road games when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent. The Thunder are winning these contests by an average score of 105.3 to 100.0.

The Thunder haven't lost back-to-back games in nearly 2 months, and I don't expect this trend to come to an end tonight. Take the points.

5* 2011 NBA Game of the Year (TNT) on Heat +2.5
Motivated by an embarrassing 21-point defeat in Game 1, expect the Heat to even the series tonight.

Consider that plays on any team off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, a good team (60% to 75% winning percentage) playing a team with a winning record, are 46-23 (67%) ATS the last 5 seasons. It is also worth noting that Miami is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games following a road blowout loss of 20 points or more.

In addition, plays against favorites that are leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75% winning percentage) playing a team with a winning record, are 51-23 (69%) ATS since 1996.

LeBron James managed just 15 points in Game 1. Expect a much more aggressive game from him on the offensive end and for Miami to reap the reward. Heat win this one outright.

5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Thunder +6
Expect Dallas to show some rust this evening having had 8 full days off. Don't be surprised if that rust costs them a Game 1 victory against a youthful Thunder squad that is playing a lot better than the Lakers did last round.

The Thunder are showing terrific value catching this many points considering they are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Thunder are also 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 road games.

The Thunder also have the edge in terms of head-to-head action. Oklahoma City is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings and 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings at Dallas.

Dallas easily won the battle of benches against the Lakers but won't have it as easy against an OKC club that brings in Harden, Collison, Mohammed and Maynor. Plus, starters Durant and Westbrook pose major matchup problems for the Dallas defense.

Having just wrapped up their series Sunday, expect the Thunder to be in a better rhythm this evening. Take the points.

5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Thunder -6.5
After blowing a double-digit lead in Game 6, expect the Thunder to bounce back strong at home in Game 7 to take the series. I especially expect a big game from Kevin Durant after one of his worst performances of the season.

Right away, you have to like the fact that home teams are 21-7 in Game 7s over the past decade. Also, OKC has been incredibly resilient. It is 42-22 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. It is also worth noting that the Thunder are 46-31 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons and 42-24 ATS in their last 66 games when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent.

The Grizzlies are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Thunder are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games against the Grizzlies. Also, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Pound the Thunder.

5* NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Game of the Year on Grizzlies -1.5
Off back-to-back defeats, including a brutally embarrassing loss at Oklahoma City Wednesday, and staring elimination square in the face, expect the Grizzlies to rise to the occasion this evening.

The Grizzlies are an impressive 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss and an unbeaten 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after being held to less than 75 points in their previous game. In addition, Memphis is 10-0 ATS after having lost 3 of its last 4 games this season. It is winning by an average of 7.2 points in this situation.

That's not all. Memphis is 13-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses this season, 14-5 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent - this season and 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less.

These trends point to one thing - Memphis is incredibly resilient. Expect the Grizzlies to extend this series with a big home win tonight. Lay the points.

4* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Hawks +4
Right away, you have to like the fact that plays against favorites that are leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 51-22 ATS since 1996 and 17-5 ATS the last 5 seasons.

Atlanta is 5-2 SU and ATS in its last 7 home games against the Bulls. It is also 4-1 SU and ATS at home in these playoffs.

The Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss while the Bulls are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 of fewer points and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU win.

The Hawks were right there in the 4th quarter in Game 5 despite subpar games from Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford. I expect much better from Atlanta's two best pure scorers tonight. Look for the Hawks to take the Bulls right down to the wire with an excellent opportunity to pull this one out to force a Game 7. Take the points.

5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* (TNT) on Celtics +7.5
The Celtics will not go down without a fight. It's just not in their personality. Game 4 went right down to the wire and I fully expect this one to as well.

I don't believe odds makers are showing the defending East champs the respect they deserve with this line. Under coach Rivers, Boston is a tremendous 40-20 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. The Celtics are only losing these contests by an average of 5.2 points. Also under Rivers, Boston is an outstanding 50-31 ATS in road games when out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent. It is only losing these games by an average of 2.8 points.

Over the last 3 seasons, Boston is 25-12 ATS in road games when out to avenge a loss to an opponent. It is actually winning these games by an average of 3.2 points.

Boston had an excellent opportunity to win Game 4 without its big 4 playing up to its potential. You can also say that Miami needed overtime to win that game despite its big 3 playing as well as it can possibly play. Boston's stars will play better tonight while it will be a tough encore for LeBron James and company.

We'll take the points as Boston shows the heart that has made it a champion.

5* NBA Playoff "Total" Dominator on Hawks/Bulls Under 181
After giving up 100 points on nearly 50% shooting in Game 4, expect the best defensive team in the league to tighten the screws in Game 5. The total score should easily find its way Under the number as a result.

After giving up 103 points in Game 1, the Bulls dug in and only allowed Atlanta to score 73 points on 33.8% shooting in Game 2. We saw just 159 total points scored in that contest and I'm expecting another low-scoring one here.

Consider that Chicago is a perfect 7-0 Under this season when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent of 10 points or more.

In addition, the Under is 5-0 in the Hawks' last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points and 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the Under.

4* NBA Playoff Bailout on Thunder +2.5
Motivated by a terrible collapse in Game 3, expect the Thunder to come storming back to even this series.

"We're good on bounce-back games, and hopefully tomorrow is another case of that," Kevin Durant said. "Going through adversity is part of the playoffs, and we just have to push through it."

Durant probably doesn't even know exactly how good his team has been at bouncing back. Consider that the Thunder are a perfect 11-0 ATS in road games when out to avenge a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. We'll back the Thunder in this revenge spot tonight.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Heat pk
A heroic performance by Rajon Rondo helped Boston take Game 3, but that performance will be a tough encore.

The Celtics, which are extremely banged up, had 3 days to rest up and get treatment before Game 3. Tackling Game 4 with just a day of rest will be a much tougher task. Rondo is the engine of the Boston Celtics and unfortunately for them won't be close to full strength if he is able to go.

The Celtics have been a terrible investment following a win. In fact, they are 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 games following a victory and 17-44-1 ATS in their last 62 games following a win of more than 10 points. Boston is just 5-13 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season.

In addition, plays on road teams - good team outscoring their opponents by 3-plus points/game - after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 88-49 ATS the last 5 seasons.

The youthful Rondo really had to carry the veteran Celtics in Game 2, which was played on 1 days' rest like this one. Boston will need him to carry them in Game 4 but his injury won't allow it. Expect Miami's younger Big 3 to have big games tonight. Take Miami.

4* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Bulls -3.5
Dating back to the regular season, the Bulls have completely dominated the Hawks in 4 of the last 5 matchups, posting wins of 18, 33, 13 and 17 points. Expect Chicago's dominance to continue here.

The Bulls improved to 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games with Friday's blowout win and the Hawks fell to 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600. Atlanta also fell to 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 Conference Semifinals games.

It is also worth noting that plays against home teams out to avenge 2 straight losses in which they were held to less than 85 points are 81-44 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, Atlanta is 0-8 ATS in home games when looking to avenge a home loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons. It is losing these contests by an average of 6.5 points. Bet the Bulls.

3* NBA SMASH on Lakers +2.5
This series has been much closer than the 3-0 score leads you to believe. In fact, the Lakers could easily be up 2-1 in this series.

98 NBA teams have fallen into a 0-3 hole, and all were eventually eliminated, but 39 of those teams won Game 4, which is what I expect the Lakers to do Sunday afternoon.

The two-time defending champs won't go down without a fight and Dallas hasn't exactly shown a killer instinct in the past. Dallas blew a 2-0 lead in the 2006 NBA finals, and came as close as anyone to blowing a 3-0 lead, needing seven games to get past Portland in 2003. Dallas even let Portland claw its way back from a 0-2 hole in the first round.

Knowing the daunting history of teams down 0-3, the Lakers have nothing to lose here. I expect them to play a much looser game, especially down the stretch. Take the Lakers.

5* 2011 NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Thunder/Grizzlies UNDER 200.5
After back-to-back high-scoring games in this series, expect both teams to make the proper adjustments at the defensive end to ensure a lower scoring affair.

It bodes extremely well for us that plays Under on home teams when the total is 200 to 209.5 - after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season, are 42-14 the last 5 seasons.

Despite a slower pace in Game 2, we saw the total score go over the number because of Oklahoma City's hot shooting. The Thunder were 8 of 14 from 3-point range. This is significant because OKC is 10-1 Under in road games after a game where it made 50% of it 3 point shots or better over the last 2 seasons. We are only seeing an average of 184.1 total points scored in this situation.

The Under is 7-3-1 in the Thunder's last 11 road games and 4-1-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Under is also 9-3 in the Grizzlies' last 12 games as a favorite.

This game will be a lot more intense than the 2 we saw in OKC as each team tries to take control of the series. That intensity will especially show up on the defensive end. Take the Under.

5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Lakers +2.5
Three teams have come back to win a 7-game series after losing the first two at home, but no team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit. Knowing the daunting history, I expect the two-time defending champs to leave it all on the floor tonight.

Dallas isn't out of the woods yet. The last time the Lakers lost the first two games of a playoff series in the 2008 Finals, they rebounded to win Game 3. Also, the Mavericks famously blew a 2-0 lead to the Miami Heat in the 2006 NBA Finals.

The Lakers will be without Ron Artest, who was suspended for his hard foul on J.J. Barea in Game 2, but they are better off giving big minutes to Lamar Odom because of the matchup problems he poses on the offensive end.

It is worth noting that plays on road teams facing a point spread of +3 to -3 that are out to avenge a loss to an opponent of 10 points or more, provided they check in off an upset loss, are 38-15 (71.7%) against the number the last five seasons.

In addition, the Lakers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. Also, under coach Jackson, LA is 27-14 ATS in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) in the 2nd half of the season.

Expect Kobe Bryant to will his team to victory tonight.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Hawks/Bulls UNDER 180
Chicago ranked No. 1 in the NBA in field goal percentage defense and 3-point field goal percentage defense during the regular season. It also ranked No. 2 in points allowed. After allowing Atlanta to score 103 points on 51.3% shooting in Game 1 (53.8% from 3-point range), expect the Bulls to really tighten the screws on the defensive end tonight.

Prior to Game 1, Atlanta had played to the Under in 5 straight games, 8 of its last 9 and 13 of its last 16. Not more than 177 total points were scored in those 5 consecutive Unders and I expect this trend to continue here.

It is also worth noting that the Bulls have played to the Under in 8 of their last 12.

Getting more in depth, we find that plays Under on all teams (Chicago in this case) when the total is between 170 and 179.5 points (where this one is at most books) - hot team having won 6 or 7 of its last 8 games, good team winning 60-75% or more of its games on the season, are 44-19 the last 5 seasons. We are only seeing an average of 171.7 total points scored in this situation. Bet the Under.

5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Bulls -8.5
Down 0-1 at home, we saw the sense of urgency Oklahoma City played with last night. I expect Chicago to play with a similar level of desperation on its way to a win and cover in Game 2.

The Bulls have been a resilient bunch all season. They are 27-10 ATS in their last 37 games following an ATS loss and 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 games following a SU defeat. Chicago is also 11-3 ATS following an upset loss this season, responding to win by 10.4 points on average in these spots.

Atlanta is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 playoff road games, losing these contests by an average of 12.4 points. It is also 3-14 ATS in its last 17 second round playoff games, losing these by an average of 13.6 points.

Prior to a Game 1, Chicago had defeated Atlanta by 18 and 31 points in consecutive games. Chicago's defense was suffocating in those contests and I expect another superb defensive effort to get the job done tonight.

4* NBA Playoffs Top Side on Thunder -6.5
It's already must-win time for the Thunder after dropping Game 1 at home and I expect them to rise to the occasion.

Gasol and Randolph were impressive in Game 1 but the Thunder did a better job of defending them than the numbers might lead you to believe. Gasol went 4 for 4 on jumpers from at least 14 feet and Randolph hit eight jumpers from at least 10 feet out, including a 3-pointer. OKC wants both players shooting jump shots, not layups. Don't expect the jumpers to fall as easily as OKC ups the intensity this evening.

Also, OKC committed 18 turnovers in Game 1 so you can bet they'll do a much better job of taking care of the rock tonight.

The Thunder are a resilient team. Consider that they are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of 10 points or more at home. I fully expect them to respond with a win and cover tonight.

5* NBA Playoff Total of the Week on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 197.5

Zach Randolph was 12 of 22 in Game 1 and 8 of his makes were from at least 10 feet away from the basket. Marc Gasol was 9 of 11 from the field and was 4 of 4 on jumpers from at least 14 feet. I just don't see either player shooting as well tonight, especially with OKC clamping down on the defensive end.

The Grizzlies also got 23 points off of 18 Thunder turnovers in Game 1. And they scored 22 second-chance points off 17 offensive boards. Taking care of the basketball and doing a better job of blocking out will easily shave points off the total score this evening.

Since coach Brooks has been at the controls, OKC is 19-8 Under in home games when out to avenge a double-digit defeat to an opponent. We have seen just 195.2 total points scored on average in this situation. In other words, Brooks has done a great job of making defensive adjustments.

With better effort and a few minor adjustments, this one should finish well under the number tonight.

3* NBA Playoff "Total" Dominator on Celtics/Heat UNDER 182.5
3 of the season's 5 meetings between these teams have come in under this number and I expect another low-scoring affair tonight.

Boston allowed Miami to shoot over 47% from the field in Game 1 and knows it must tighten the screws in order to get Game 2. Plus, Boston and Miami combined to make 21 3-point shots in Game 1 and we only saw a total of 189 points scored. With the pace still slow and both defenses defending the 3-point line better, we should see this one come in under the number.

The Under is 14-2 in the Celtics' last 16 games playing on 1 day of rest, 11-4-1 in their last 16 road games and 7-1-1 in the Heat's last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the Under.

4* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Bulls -8.5
These teams met three times in a three-week span in March and Chicago should have won all three meetings. The Bulls opened up a 14-0 lead on the Hawks in the season

5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Thunder -6.5
This is a very tough spot for the Grizzlies as they are being asked to start a new series on the road on 1 days' rest and preparation time following the biggest moment in franchise history. In other words, get ready for a letdown.

Oklahoma City will not be taking the Grizzlies lightly either after losing 3 of 4 to them in the season series. But we shouldn't read too much into the regular season meetings as Kendrick Perkins didn't play in any of those games.

He has the strength and experience to defend both Gasol and Randolph. Expect him to start on Gasol, which allows Serge Ibaka, the NBA

4* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Spurs +3
San Antonio enters Game 6 with a ton of momentum after Wednesday's overtime victory.

5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Game of the Year on Mavericks +4.5
Portland is lucky to still be playing. Dallas had the Blazers down 67-44 in the third quarter in Game 4 and let them off the hook. With a chance to close out the series, you can bet Dallas won't let that happen again. "We know what we gotta do. We're a veteran team. If we don't have to play a Game 7, then we don't want to play a Game 7," forward Shawn Marion said.

The Mavericks are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games while the Blazers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6. Plus, Dallas is the best road team in the NBA this season and has been deadly in the road underdog role. In fact, it is 15-6 ATS as a road underdog this season and 13-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season. It is winning these games by an average score of 97.5 to 95.9. The Trail Blazers, meanwhile, are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 13-32 ATS in their last 45 home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.

Dallas has also thrived following a double-digit win. Consider that the Mavs are 16-6 ATS after a win by 10 points or more this season, winning in this situation by an average score of 99.2 to 93.0.

Dallas is the more talented and deeper team, and it will be driven tonight by the haunting memories of recent first round exits. Take the Mavs.

4* Game 6 *BEST BET* on Hawks +2
Motivated by an embarrassing loss in Game 5 and with an opportunity to win the series at home tonight, expect the Atlanta Hawks to continue their dominance over the Magic.

The Hawks have won 6 of their last 8 against the Magic, including all 4 home meetings during this span. The Magic are just 1-8 ATS in the last 9 meetings overall and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Atlanta. The Magic are also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Hawks, meanwhile, are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points.

The Hawks' embarrassing Game 5 defeat should remind them of how bad it felt when the Magic swept them in convincing fashion in last year's playoffs. That reminder will be the driving force behind a win tonight. Take the Hawks.

4* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Spurs -6.5
Off back-to-back losses to Memphis, including an embarrassing defeat in Game 4, expect the #1 seed in the West to bounce back strong at home to avoid elimination tonight.

The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points. They are also an impressive 33-12 ATS in their last 45 home games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more. They are winning these games by an average score of 98.1 to 89.1.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points playing with double revenge (2 straight losses to an opponent), if that opponent is coming off an upset win over a division rival, are 40-16 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 11.7 points.

In addition, plays on favorites, good team outscoring opponents by 3+ points/game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 114-67 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 9.0 points. Take the Spurs.

4* NBA Playoff "Total" Dominator on Pacers/Bulls OVER 186
Following 3 straight defensive battles which have catered to the Under, expect the offenses to take center stage to push this one Over the total.

The Over is actually 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these teams in Chicago. In fact, we have seen an average of 197.5 total points scored in the 8 games played between these teams in Chicago the last 3 seasons.

Going further inside the numbers, we find that plays Over on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (Chicago) - well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, and a top-level team with a winning percentage of 75% or better, playing a team with a losing record - are 51-21 since 1996. This system is 12-4 the last 3 seasons and a perfect 2-0 this season. Teams fitting into this situation have faced an average total of 185.7 but have combined with their opponents to score a total of 192.2 points on average. Take the Over.

3* NBA Playoff "Total" SMASH on Hawks/Magic OVER 177.5
We saw 173 total points scored in Game 4 despite Orlando shooting 39.2% from the field. This figure included a 2 of 23 (8.7%) performance from the 3-point line. It is also worth noting that Atlanta only made 60% of its free throw attempts in Game 4 (12 of 20). Expect a few more 3's to fall for Orlando at home and a few more free throws to go down for Atlanta to push this one Over the number.

Going to the numbers we find that plays Over on all teams (Atlanta) when the total is 179.5 or less in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG allowed) after 42+ games, and after allowing 85 points or less, are 35-8 (81.4%) since 1996. We have seen an average posted total of 177 in these games and teams have combined to score an average of 187.2 total points. Bet the Over.

4* NBA Playoff "Total" Dominator on Thunder/Nuggets OVER 204.5
Down 0-3, the Nuggets have nothing to lose and that makes them a potentially dangerous team tonight. Playing at home and looking to save a little face, I expect a great effort from Denver. I also expect the Nuggets to play a little looser, which bodes well for the Over.

Both teams shot under 38% from the field in Game 3 and the Nuggets were just 30 of 45 from the free throw line. Rest assured, both teams will shoot better tonight.

On the season, Denver is 15-4 Over in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots per game. We have seen an average of 224.4 total points scored in these contests.

It also can't be overlooked that Denver is 10-1 to the Over under coach Karl after 2 straight games in which its opponent grabbed 60 or more rebounds. We are seeing an average of 216.0 points scored in these contests. There's something about getting dominated on the boards that makes teams play harder and better.

It is also significant that Denver has been made the favorite, considering the Over is 5-1 in its last 6 playoff games as a favorite. Pound the Over.

3* NBA Playoff Over/Under Winner on Spurs/Grizzlies OVER 188
Back-to-back Unders in this series have dropped the number down and now the Over is showing solid value.

The Spurs will look to push the ball more tonight and they will also look to take the ball to the basket. Memphis has been guarding the 3-point line, as you might expect when matched up against the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA, and the Spurs need to adjust. More drives means more free throws and free throws mean points with the clocked stopped, which is very conducive to the Over.

5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Magic pk
Expect the Magic to bounce back strong in Game 4 to even the series.

The Magic's Richardson and the Hawks' Pachulia will both miss Sunday's game with suspensions stemming from an altercation late in Game 3. I believe the Hawks will actually miss Pachulia more. The 6-11, 275-pound center has done the best job of defending Dwight Howard. I just don't see the combination of Jason Collins and little-used Etan Thomas being able to contain Howard, which means the Hawks may have to double him more. That also means Orlando will get more open 3-point looks.

Going to the numbers, we find that plays on all teams when the line is +3 to -3 off an upset loss, provided that team has a winning percentage between 60% and 75% and is playing a team with a winning record, are 174-113 ATS since 1996. The Magic are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less while the Hawks are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 playoff games as an underdog. Take the Magic.

5* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Mavs +4
Dallas is the hands down better team. Its starting lineup is more talented and it's bench is far better. This is not the same Dallas team that has bowed out early in recent NBA playoffs. Expect the Mavs to flex their muscles with a Game 4 victory here.

Dallas is 14-6 ATS as a road underdog this season, including 12-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season, winning these games by an average score of 98.4 to 96.6. The Mavs are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points.

The Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite.

What a luxury Dallas has to bring Jason Terry, Peja Stojakovic, Brendan Haywood and Jose Barea off the bench. Expect them to be the difference in Game 4.

4* NBA Playoff Total of the Week on Bulls/Pacers OVER 187.5
We saw 172 total points scored in Game 3, but the Bulls and Pacers shot 38.9% and 37.9% respectively. We'll see much better shooting in this one.

Indiana knows it must play fast to have a shot, and down 0-3, it can play free and loose. The Pacers know they're not going to win this series but they want to steal a game very badly.

Also, the Bulls fit into a very lucrative "over the total" system. Consider that plays Over on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points, coming off a road win against a division rival and well rested team (playing only their 2nd game in 5 days) are 85-34 since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have faced an average total of 185.1 and have combined with their opponent to score an average of 193.4 points. This system is 6-1 this season.

The Over is 6-1 in the Pacers' last 7 games as a home underdog and 15-5-1 in their last 21 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. Bet the Over.

3* NBA Playoff SMASH (ESPN) on Knicks -3
Expect the Knicks to bounce back strong at home tonight. Boston has really struggled on the road down the stretch, having lost 4 straight SU and ATS. Also, Boston has been pure fade material any time it is coming off a victory. That's because the Celtics are a poor 9-26-1 ATS in their last 36 games following a win.

The Knicks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 overall, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points.

Amare Stoudemire will be back tonight and Billups could be as well. Regardless if Billups is back, I believe the Knicks have enough to get the win and cover. Expect a huge game from Stoudemire as he takes advantage of Boston's weakened interior defense in the absence of Kendrick Perkins.

The Garden will be rocking as it hosts its first playoff game in 7 years. Expect the home crowd to will the Knicks to victory.

4* NBA Playoff *BEST BET* on Blazers -5.5
Portland enjoys one of the best homecourt advantages in the NBA. Motivated by losses in Games 1 and 2, expect the Blazers to bounce back strong with a little help from the raucous home crowd.

Portland is 30-11 this season at the Rose Garden, winning 10 of their last 11. Against Dallas, the Blazers have a 46-18 advantage at home in the regular season and a 6-1 edge in playoff games.

The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. The Trail Blazers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Mavericks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog.

When going back home following a road game, Portland is an impressive 12-4 ATS this season, winning in this situation by an average of 9.6 points. Portland really is a different team at home and I believe we'll see that tonight.