3* NCAAB *BEST BET* on Charleston +14
Charleston has defeated the Tar Heels in 2 of the last 3 meetings, and it has either defeated UNC or lost by just 4 points in 4 of the last 6. Carolina is young, and still hasn't figured out how to play defense.

UNC is 1-8 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 3 seasons, only defeating these teams by 9.3 ppg. Plus, the Cougars are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater. Take the points.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Heat/Mavs UNDER 189
Right away I love the fact that plays Under on any team off a road win versus a division rival, against an opponent coming off a home win, are 6-1 this season.

In addition, plays Under on road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points off a home win, extremely tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days, are 76-39 the last 5 seasons, including 2-0 already this season. We are only seeing 183 total points scored on average in this situation.

Miami is 15-3 Under in road games where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points over the last 3 seasons, and we are only seeing an average of 179.1 total points in these games. Lastly, the Under is 15-5-1 in the Mavericks' last 21 home games. Expect a hard-fought defensive battle between two of the best defensive teams in the league to result in the Under.

5* NBA Game of the Month on Nuggets -3.5
Denver has the big edge in terms of fresh legs as it hasn't played since Monday. Chicago played both Tuesday and Wednesday with Wednesday's double-OT come from behind win taking a lot out of the Bulls.

Denver also has the advantage playing on its home floor where it has won 4 in a row over Chicago by 4 or more points. The last three home wins in this series have all come by double digits.

In addition, Denver will be out to avenge a 2-point loss at Chicago earlier this month. The home team is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Denver. The Nuggets are also 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Lay the points.

3* NCAAB Wednesday Night Blowout on Utah State -10.5
Utah State is the much more experienced team (4 starters return), and it will be out to avenge last season's 1-point defeat at Utah. Plus, with just 1 starter back, I expect Utah to struggle in its first road game of the season.

Going to the numbers, this is a very good spot for the Aggies. In fact, Utah State is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games following a no-cover win, winning in this spot by an average score of 72.7 to 56.8. It is also a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last 6 home games after allowing 55 points or less in its last game, winning by an average score of 82.1 to 58.1 in this spot.

In addition, the Aggies are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite, and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points.

There is a reason why odds makers have the Aggies laying double-digits. They don't think this young Utah team will be ready for a big step up in competition, especially in its first road game. I agree. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks +4
Dallas has 4 losses this season, and 2 of those losses have come by 1 and 2 points respectively. This is a Dallas team that will be in just about every game this season because of how solid it is defensively. Dallas has a huge edge on the defensive end tonight. It is only allowing 91.6 ppg this season while OKC is giving up 102.2.

The Mavs may be playing back-to-back, but they are a tremendous 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing without rest. Dallas is also 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 road games, and 4-0 ATS in its last 4 road games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Conversely, the Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer.

The road team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the points.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Knicks/Bobcats UNDER 206.5
These 2 teams combined for 217 points in last night's meeting, but that certainly hasn't been the norm in this showdown. Prior to that game, 5 straight had easily found their way under this number. I expect Charlotte to tighten the screws defensively to keep this one under tonight.

This is a terrific unders situation. In fact, plays Under on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Charlotte in this case) after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, against an opponent that has gone over the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, are 70-33 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Under.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +10
Dallas is a very good team, but it doesn't win very many games by double-digits, especially at home. In fact, the Mavs have only posted 1 double-digit win in 7 home games this season.

Dallas has had a tough time getting up for lesser opponents, and I expect that to be the case again tonight with a big game against Oklahoma City scheduled for tomorrow night. Looking at this numerically, we find that Dallas is just 1-16 ATS in its last 17 home games when playing against a team with a losing record. It is only defeating these teams by an average score of 101.8 to 99.6. It is also worth noting that Dallas is 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points since the beginning of last season. It is only winning these games by an average score of 101.1 to 100.7.

The Pistons are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog. We'll take the Pistons and the points tonight.

3* NBA SMASH on Cavaliers +5
Riding high from last night's convincing win over Miami, expect a letdown from the Pacers tonight. Indiana has only won back-to-back games once this season. It will certainly have its work cut out for itself tonight against a rested Cleveland squad that is hungry to avenge consecutive defeats. Plus, a double-digit loss to Indiana earlier this month will add a little extra fuel to the fire.

The Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win of more than 10 points, while the Cavaliers are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss of more than 10 points. It is also worth noting that the Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Indiana, and the road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the points.

4* Monday NBA *BEST BET* on Timberwolves +9.5
Jeff Green and Kevin Durant are both listed as questionable for this game, but I like Minnesota catching nearly double digits whether those two play or not.

Off back-to-back hard-fought road wins over Boston and Milwaukee, Oklahoma City returns home. But it will be much more concerned with its next opponent (Dallas) than these T-Wolves.

Minnesota is well-rested, having not played since Friday, and one has to like the way this team has performed on the road recently. The Wolves are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games, defeating the Kings, and only losing to the Lakers, Hawks and Bobcats by 5, 6 and 3 points respectively. In addition, Minnesota has typically brought its "A" game against OKC. The Wolves have either won, or lost by 8 or fewer points, in 9 of the last 10 meetings.

The Thunder are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. They are also 4-13 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons, losing in this situation by an average score of 99.4 to 100.6. Take the points.

3* NCAAB Monday Night Blowout on Missouri State -15.5
This is a tough scheduling spot for a Pepperdine team that finished just 7-24 last season. The Waves will be asked to head east, for the first time this season, to play a game just two days after a heartbreaking loss to Cal State Bakersfield.

Missouri State has had an extra day to rest, and it will be happy to return home following back-to-back road defeats. All 5 starters return from a Missouri State team that led the Valley in scoring a year ago, and I'm expecting these boys to light up the hoop tonight. The Bears scored 78 and won by 17 in their only other home game this season, and I think tonight's margin of victory will be 20-plus.

The Waves are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Missouri Valley. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Lay the points.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +3.5
Portland has managed to win two straight without Roy, but I don't think it can pull off a third against this hungry Jazz team. Utah will be out for revenge following last night's loss to San Antonio, and it will be lacking no confidence against a team it has defeated 4 straight times.

The Jazz are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. The Trail Blazers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a S.U. win. Take the points with Utah tonight.

5* NBA Game of the Week (ESPN) on Bulls +5
Dallas is being overvalued at home tonight against a very good Chicago Bulls team. This really comes as no surprise because odds makers gave the Mavs too much respect at home all last season.

As a result, the Mavericks are 14-35-3 ATS in their last 52 home games. They are just 6-20-2 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Bulls have been outstanding in this same point spread range on the road, going 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. In also like the fact that the Bulls are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games period.

The Bulls have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 trips to Dallas. Plus, the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the Bulls and the points tonight.

3* SMASH on Bobcats +11
Miami is getting too much respect tonight. The Heat just blew out a tired Phoenix team, which isn't very good on the defensive end, but they will have a heck of a time beating Charlotte, which is great defensively, by double-digits.

This month, Charlotte has taken Orlando, San Antonio and Utah down to the wire, losing to these three teams by a combined 8 points. Plus, the Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater, while the Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater.

With 3 full days to prepare for this one, I expect Charlotte to keep the score within the number.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Nuggets +2
Playing without Brandon Roy, Portland was able to survive Memphis by 1-point in its last game, and they needed 30 points from Wesley Matthews to get that done. Roy won't be in the lineup tonight either, which means the Blazers will be looking for another big game from Matthews. Lightning won't strike twice in the same spot tonight.

The Blazers really struggled against the Nuggets last season, losing 3 of the 4 meetings. The last 2 defeats came by 12 and 17 points. From a betting perspective, the Nuggets have a long history of success against Portland, going 26-10-1 ATS in the last 37 meetings.

Look for Melo and company to get the job done against a Portland team minus its best player.

3* NCAAB SMASH (ESPN2) on Illinois -3
After playing a couple of complete patsies in Navy and Louisiana Tech, this young Texas team sees a major step up in competition tonight. Look for an experienced Illinois team (returns all 5 starters) to cover this small number.

It is also in Illinois' favor that it just played a game Saturday. It won't have quite the rust that Texas will have, having not played in over a week.

The Longhorns are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog, and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Illinois is the better team, and I expect the Fighting Illini to play like it. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +8
This is a tough spot for the Lakers playing back-to-back, especially since injuries to Andrew Bynum and Theo Ratliff have depleted their front line depth.

Detroit has covered the spread in 6 of its last 7, and it will have the advantage of fresh legs on its home floor tonight.

We have already seen this veteran Lakers team start to wear down. It was blowing out its opponents early, but it has either won by 5 or less, or lost, 4 of its last 6 games.

The Pistons are an impressive 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Take the Pistons and the points.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator (ESPN) Suns/Heat UNDER 209
The Heat have played to the Over in 6 straight. Plus, they are playing the Suns, who have annually been among the highest scoring teams in the NBA since Steve Nash landed in the desert. Because of the public perception associated with the 2 aforementioned facts, odds makers have purposely set the bar too high tonight. They are looking to trap the public, but we won't bite.

Miami held each of its first 7 opponents to 97 or fewer points. It held 5 of those below 90. Since, the Heat have given up 100 or more in 3 straight. I expect to see a defensive effort resembling the first 7 tonight. Miami is well rested, having not played since the 13th. Plus, it is facing a Phoenix team that will be playing its 4th game in 6 days.

In addition, Phoenix becomes an even more perimeter oriented team with the injury to Robin Lopez. Miami should have a lot of defensive success against a Suns team that will have to settle for a lot of contested jump shots. Bet the Under tonight.

3* NCAAB National TV *CASH COW* (ESPN) on Michigan State -16
With the return of Korie Lucious, expect Michigan State to flex its muscles against an inferior opponent on the ESPN stage.

South Carolina may have scored 94 points on Elon, but it won't have the same success on the offensive end against one of the better defensive teams in the country, especially after losing the SEC's leading scorer. The Gamecocks just don't have enough returning talent to make up the 22.5 points that Devan Downey averaged last season.

Michigan State has won 48 straight non-conference games at home, and it is 39-0 at home in November under coach Izzo.

The Gamecocks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. Also, the Spartans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. the SEC. Lay the number with Michigan State.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Lakers -3
Off back-to-back losses, expect the Lakers to be ready to go tonight. LA has won 5 in a row against Milwaukee, and 4 of those wins have come by 5 or more points. Looking back, LA has won 21 of the last 26 meetings by an average score of 104 to 97.

Milwaukee may have strung together 3 straight wins, but consider that the Bucks are just 40-66 ATS in their last 106 games after 3 or more consecutive wins.

In my opinion, Atlanta is the only quality win Milwaukee has. The Bucks have lost to New Orleans by 4 and 6, Boston by 3 and Portland by 14. I'm laying this small number with the reigning two-time champs.

3* NCAAB *Crunch Time Bailout* on Stanford -13.5
Stanford lost by double digits at San Diego last November, but the shoe will be on the other foot tonight. This season Stanford owns the big edge in terms of experience, and it will be looking for some payback. San Diego is extremely young, so its first road test will be very difficult.

In addition, the Toreros were one of the worst covering teams in the country last season. In fact, they are just 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall. The Toreros are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.

We can expect a Johnny Dawkins coached team to play tenacious defense, which should lead to a lot of turnovers by this young San Diego bunch. Look for Stanford to convert those turnovers into points to cover this number.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +6.5
As if yesterday's double-digit loss to San Antonio isn't enough motivation, Oklahoma City will have an even larger appetite for revenge as it remembers a 120-99 Halloween loss to Utah.

The Thunder may be playing back-to-back, but this young team can handle it early in the season. Besides, odds makers have given us a couple extra points because of it.

In terms of the point spread, this is a matchup that has been dominated by the road team. In fact, the road squad is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. It is also worth noting that OKC is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 meetings in Utah.

The Thunder are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Jazz are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Western Conference.

Following a really tough road trip, expect Utah to come out a little flat in its first game back home. Take the points.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on T-Wolves/Hawks OVER 204.5
Minnesota has played to the Under in 4 straight while facing totals of 214.5 or higher. Now, the number has been lowered by double digits. This creates excellent line value with the Over, especially since the Hawks will be ready to take out the frustration of a 4-game skid on an inferior opponent.

We saw 216 total points scored when these teams met last week. Plus, Minnesota is allowing 112.3 points on the road this season, and Atlanta is 21-0 OVER its last 21 home games when its scores 105 or more points. We are seeing an average of 218.2 total points scored in these 21 games. Bet the Over.

3* NBA Saturday Night SMASH on Trail Blazers +4.5
Even after a tough loss to Oklahoma City last night, the Blazers will have no trouble getting up for the undefeated Hornets.

Plain and simple, I strongly believe Portland is the better team. The Blazers have won 3 of the last 4 in this series, with that lone loss coming by a single point. Going to the numbers, we find that the Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in New Orleans, and the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Portland has been one of the best bounce back bets in the league, going 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games following a S.U. loss. Plus, it is a fantastic 38-17 ATS in its last 55 games playing on 0 days rest. The Blazers match up very well with New Orleans and will have an excellent opportunity to win straight up tonight.

5* NBA Game of the Week on 76ers +9.5
Despite covering the spread in 4 of its last 5 games, Philly isn't getting the respect it deserves.

Dallas has been constantly overvalued at home. As a result, it is just 15-35-1 ATS in its last 51 home games. In addition, it is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 games as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, only winning these games by 4.4 points on average. Since the beginning of last season, the Mavs are 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points, only winning by an average score of 101.1 to 100.7 in these games.

Adding to my confidence in this play is that fact that Philly is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games as an underdog and 6-0 ATS in its last 6 versus the NBA Southwest division.

The last time these teams met, Philly won by 11 points. Philly lost the 2 prior meetings, but those losses came by just 2 points each. Take the points with Philly tonight.

4* NCAAB Vegas Line Mistake on Wofford +9.5
Minnesota is being overvalued tonight, especially when you consider that it will be without Devoe Joseph. The Gophers will really miss the 6-3 guard's offense. He scored 14 or more points in 5 of Minnesota's last 8 games.

Wofford has been an excellent underdog. In fact, the Terriers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog. They are also 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Meanwhile, the Golden Gophers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. It is also worth noting that Wofford is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 against the Big Ten.

I'm taking the points with this experienced Wofford team tonight.

4* NBA *Marquee Matchup* (ESPN) on Hawks -4
Utah has managed to overcome big deficits to win at Miami and Orlando, but it won't be as fortunate tonight. The Hawks will be out for blood following 3 straight defeats.

The Jazz have struggled against the Hawks, losing the last 3 meetings by 7, 13 and 5 points. Strictly from the standpoint of the point spread, the Jazz are only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Atlanta. It is also worth noting that the favorite is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings.

The Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points while the Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less.

With this being Utah's 3rd straight road game against a quality opponent, we should start to see fatigue set in tonight. Take the Hawks.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Heat -6.5
This is a huge bounce back spot for Miami. Sickened by a blown lead of 20+ points in a loss to the Jazz, and hungry to avenge a season-opening loss at Boston, expect the Heat to put together a complete game this evening.

This number may look a bit high at first glance, but you'll soon see that is not the case. In fact, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where they scored less than 85 points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 32-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 12.1 points.

In addition, plays against underdogs coming off a cover where they lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are an impressive 45-12 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are losing by an average of 10.7 points.

We saw the way Miami put it all together in a blowout win over Orlando, and I'm expecting another strong performance this evening.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Knicks -4.5
Motivated by last night's blowout loss to Milwaukee, I expect the Knicks to take care of business at home against the Warriors.

Playing back-to-back should be no problem for the Knicks, who are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing without rest. The Knicks are also a strong 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a loss of more than 10 points.

If Golden State's best player, Monta Ellis, is able to go, he will be playing with a painful back injury. That will really put a burden on his fearless style of play.

New York is 13-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games dating back to the beginning of last season. Take the Knicks.

3* NCAAB Non-Conference SMASH (ESPNU) on Charleston +14.5
Maryland is getting too much respect with this line simply because it blew out a far inferior Seattle squad. The reality is Maryland is very young and inexperienced. I expect that to show up against a well-coached (Bobby Cremins), more-experienced College of Charleston team.

Charleston has been one of the best ATS teams in college basketball recently. In fact, it is on an impressive 19-9 ATS run. Charleston is also an impressive 44-26 ATS in its last 70 games as a road underdog (or pick) and 45-26 ATS in its last 71 non-conference games.

Gary Williams' young team committed 29 turnovers in their opener. Charleston has the talent to make Maryland pay for its mistakes tonight. Take the points.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks -4.5
Milwaukee has done very well against the Knicks in recent years, mostly because New York struggles on the defensive end. Since the beginning of the 2008 season, Milwaukee is 6-1 SU and ATS versus New York, winning those games by an average score of 102 to 91.

New York is at its best in transition, but it has struggled to get easy transition buckets against one of the better defensive teams in the league. With this in mind, the total of tonight's matchup is very significant. A line of 196 tells us that odds makers expect the Bucks to have success in slowing down New York's offense. Keep in mind that the Bucks are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games when the total is between 195 and 199.5 points, winning these games by an average score of 102.9 to 96.2.

In addition, Milwaukee is an impressive 31-8 ATS in its last 39 games against poor defensive teams allowing 99 or more points per game, defeating these squads by an average score of 101.1 to 94.9. The Bucks are a strong 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points, and I'll back them in this range tonight.

5* Monday NBA *BEST BET* on Mavs -3.5
This is an extremely tough scheduling spot for Boston. Not only are the veteran Celtics playing back-to-back, but they are playing their 5th game in 7 days. As if this situation isn't tough enough, they are playing on the road against one of the best teams in the West.

This will be just Dallas' 3rd game in 6 days, and it will be hungry following a loss to Denver. In fact, plays on home favorites off an upset loss, in the first 6 games of the season, if they were a playoff team last season that lost 4 or more of their last 5 games, are 31-10 ATS since 1996, winning by an average of 11.5 points in this spot.

The Mavericks are also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the Mavs.

3* NCAAB Season Opener (ESPNU) on Pitt -12
Pitt has won 13 straight season openers, and last season's season-opening scare to Wofford ensures that the Panthers will be ready to go tonight.

Pitt has been nothing short of dominant at Petersen Events Center, where it is 132-11 all-time, including 75-1 against non-conference foes. Also in our favor is the fact that Rhode Island has dropped 22 in a row to ranked teams.

This Pitt team, which returns seven of its top eight scorers, has the advantage at nearly every spot on the floor tonight. Look for the Panthers to take care of business by 15-17. Lay the points.

4* Sunday NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons +1.5
The Warriors have won 4 of their first 5 games, but all 4 of those wins have come at home, and they are yet to leave the West Coast. They'll find life a lot more difficult in Detroit Sunday.

The Pistons picked up a nice confidence boost when they broke into the win column against Charlotte in their last game. They'll be lacking no confidence today against a team they have defeated 12 times in their last 13 home meetings.

The Warriors are a lousy 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Pistons are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Pound the Pistons.

4* Saturday NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +7.5
Gerald Wallace only scored 13 points in last night's loss to the Pistons. I'm expecting that poor performance to light a fire under him this evening. Charlotte is 4-1 against Orlando, including 3-0 at home, when Wallace scores at least 20 points. I like Wallace's chances of getting there this evening.

The Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and the Magic are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win of more than 10 points. It's like clockwork for the books to overvalue a team coming off a double digit win, and that's precisely what they have done here.

Charlotte is yet to play up to its potential, but it will most certainly show up against Orlando. Expect a big game from Wallace and a solid defensive effort to lead to a Charlotte cover this evening.

5* Friday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz -1
After a pair of poor performances to start the season, the Jazz have it going. They have scored 120 and 125 points respectively in their last 2 games, and I like them to run up the score on one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA tonight.

Deron Williams gives Utah the huge edge at the all-important point guard spot. Golden State's Stephen Curry is listed as questionable with a bum ankle, and he would lose this matchup even if he was healthy.

Utah has won 3 straight against Golden State, and those 3 wins have all come by 9 or more points. Plus, this is a great spot to back the Jazz when you consider that they are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more, winning by an average of 5.6 points in this spot. Take Utah.

3* NBA *Marquee Matchup* on Hornets +7
The Heat have rattled off 4 straight double-digit wins, but 3 of those came against some of the weaker teams in the league (Philly, New Jersey, Minnesota). With this is mind, a 4-0 New Orleans squad, which has wins over 3 teams that made playoff trips last season, is not getting the respect it deserves on its home floor.

This may be a new-look Miami team, but it is still worth noting that the Hornets are 20-5 SU & ATS in their last 25 home games against the Heat.

These points are also looking good when you consider how solid New Orleans is defensively. They rank 5th in scoring defense (93.8 ppg) and 6th in field goal percentage defense, holding opponents to just 42.8% shooting. Behind a strong defensive effort, I fully expect New Orleans to keep this one within the number.

3* NBA on TNT *Crunch Time Bailout* on Thunder +5.5
Off back-to-back double digit defeats, you can bet the Thunder will show up in Portland tonight. I know the Thunder just played in LA last night, but it's early in the season and fatigue will not be an issue. In fact, we just saw Portland rebound from a blowout loss at Chicago to crush the Bucks the very next night. OKC is way too talented to get blown off the court in three straight games.

Considering we haven't see a spread of more than 3.5 points over the last 4 meetings in this series, the Thunder are showing some solid valued catching 5.5. In addition, this is a great spot for OKC. The Thunder are 17-4 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons, and this trend tightens up to 9-1 ATS if they are coming off a road loss.

The Thunder are also an impressive 32-14 ATS in their last 46 games after 2 or more consecutive losses and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Thunder.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Knicks +7
Off back-to-back close losses of 4 and 5 points, the well rested Knicks should be able to take the Bulls down to the wire this evening.

With the additions of guys like Amare Stoudemire and Raymond Felton, the Knicks are a better team than they have been the past few seasons. However, odds makers are still treating this team the same way. With this in mind, I'll gladly take the points. In fact, New York is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%), only losing to these squads by 3.8 points on average.

In addition, Chicago is just 5-15 ATS in its last 20 home games after 2 or more consecutive wins, losing in this spot by an average score of 98.4 to 99.9. Take the Knicks and the points.

3* Western Conference Power Play on Rockets -4.5
I'll back Houston at home as it goes after its first win of the season hard tonight. New Orleans may be 3-0, but it will have a hard time keeping pace with Houston here. Consider that the Hornets are just 12-32 ATS versus explosive offensive teams scoring 103 or more points per game since the beginning of the 2008 season, losing to these teams by an average of 7.3 points.

In addition, New Orleans is a lousy 23-44 ATS in its last 67 games as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points, losing these contests by 6.7 points on average.

Besides the fact that it is 0-3, we can count on Houston being extra motivated after its double digit loss to Denver. In fact, Houston is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games after a loss by 10 points or more, winning in these spots by 7.5 points on average. Lay the points.

5* Eastern Conference Game of the Month (ESPN) on Bucks +8
With both teams playing back-to-back, the more youthful Bucks will have the fresher legs tonight. Milwaukee has been as good as it gets when playing on consecutive nights. In fact, it is 18-4 ATS in its last 22 when playing on back-to-back days, winning by an average score of 100.0 to 95.0.

For Boston, returning home after playing a game as a road favorite has been a tough spot. In fact, the Celtics are just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games in this situation, only winning them by 3.4 points on average. Conversely, Milwaukee is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 road games after playing a game as a home favorite, winning by 2.0 points on average in this situation.

The Bucks are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, including 3-0 ATS in Boston during this span. We'll bet the Bucks plus the points tonight.

3* Tuesday Night NBA SMASH on Heat -15.5
This looks like a lot of points to be laying at first glance, but that's what the books want us to think. Minnesota lost by 20 points at Memphis in its last game, and now it faces a better defensive teams with a lot more talent.

Miami followed up its 26-point home win over Orlando with a 23-point win at New Jersey. Now, the Heat return home for their second home game of the season and the place will be rocking. With no game until November 5th, Miami won't spare the overmatched T-Wolves here tonight.

The Timberwolves are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. This is one game they wish they could skip. Lat the points.

3* Monday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Clippers +8
Because the Clippers just played yesterday, are 0-3 to start the season, and have lost 16 in a row to the Spurs, odds makers have undervalued them today.

It's hard to make a case for laying this many points with the Spurs when you consider that they are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Clippers are a very talented team, and they'll fight hard to avoid an 0-4 start tonight, keeping this one within the number in the process. Take the points.

4* Sunday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +6
Off back-to-back losses to start the season, the Jazz will be out for blood in OKC this evening. Right away things look good for us, considering plays on any team off an upset loss by 10 points, playing with 2 days rest, are 73-35 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by 4.0 points on average. The Jazz are 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 2 days' rest and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points.

We also can't overlook the fact that the underdog is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. I really like this OKC team, but they aren't 6 points better than a hungry Jazz club tonight. Take the points.

4* Saturday NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards +9.5
After a hard-fought win at Philadelphia last night, the Hawks will struggle to bring the necessary intensity into this one, especially since they are playing a team that was blown out by Orlando in its opener. But for that reason, the Wizards will prove to be a worthy opponent tonight.

No. 1 overall pick John Wall had some first game jitters against Orlando, missing 13 of 19 shots, but I'm expecting a much better performance from him this evening.

Considering Atlanta is just 16-33 ATS in its last 49 home games when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%), which is very well where Washington could end up this year, I'll take the points with the Wiz. It is also worth noting that Atlanta is only defeating these teams by 5.3 points on average. With this in mind, I think we are getting some pretty good line value.

3* Marquee Matchup (ESPN) on Heat -3
Miami already has 2 games under its belt. It is playing at home, and it is playing with a day to rest and prepare. These 3 things stack the odds against Orlando tonight.

The Magic rolled in their first game of the season last night, but playing on the road in the second game of a back-to-back is no easy task, especially when up against a team with King James, D-Wade and Bosh.

While people think of the Miami Big 3 in terms of what this unit can do offensively, I think of it more in terms of defense. Miami has held each of its first 2 opponents to 88 of fewer points. Don't be surprised if the Heat end up as the best defensive team in the league. We saw what Boston's defense was able to do to Orland in last season's playoffs, and Miami's defense should be able to hold the Magic in check as well.

Plus, you have to love backing a team with, not 1, but 2 guys who want the ball down the stretch. Orlando doesn't really have 1 go-to guy to trust with the game on the line. The Magic wanted that guy to be Vince Carter, but he hasn't gotten it done to this point. The Magic are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. I'm laying the points with Miami.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Hornets +1.5
New Orleans is not getting the credit it deserves on its home floor tonight. The Hornets were 24-17 at home last season despite playing without star point guard Chris Paul for a big chunk of the season. New Orleans was 28-13 at home the season before with a healthy Paul, and this is what I expect in 2010. Meanwhile, Denver was just 19-22 on the road a season ago.

From the perspective of the point spread, I just can't justify taking Denver here. The Nuggets are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. I know they are coming off a big home win, but consider that they are 2-12-3 ATS in their last 17 games following a victory of more than 10 points. The Nuggets are also a lousy 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as a road favorite of 4.5 or fewer points.

When the books projected a close game for Denver last season, it came out on the losing end a lot. In fact, Denver was just 3-12 ATS when the line was +3 to -3 a season ago, losing by an average of 6.2 points in these games.

The Nuggets are also currently without 2 big pieces of the puzzle in Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen. Take the Hornets at home tonight.

4* NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Jazz -6.5
After laying an egg at Denver last night, I expect the Jazz to bounce back strong on their home floor.

This is a strong money-making situation for Utah, considering it is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing without a day of rest. The Jazz are also 26-11 ATS in their last 37 games following a S.U. loss and 26-11-2 ATS in their last 39 home games. It is also worth nothing that they are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

Utah got its tail kicked last night, but it is good to know that it is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points. The Jazz have also proven to be one of the best Thursday night TNT bets, going 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games.

Steve Nash is another year older, which really shows up on the defensive side of the ball. He has no chance against Deron Williams tonight. Lay the points with Utah.

3* SMASH on Pacers +9
I'm expecting Indiana to be an improved team this season, and I don't believe odds makers are giving the Pacers the respect they deserve tonight. The last 3 meetings between these teams have been decided by 5 or fewer points and I expect this trend to continue.

The Pacers got a lot better at the point guard position, where they needed the most improvement, with the addition of Darren Collison. He took the league by storm a season ago at New Orleans when Chris Paul went down with an injury. Collison proved to be an explosive scorer and a strong defender.

The Pacers are an impressive 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog, and I'll back them in that role tonight.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +8.5
The Heat have some of the best talent in the league with LeBron James and Chris Bosh joining forces with Dwayne Wade, but it was very apparent last night that it will take these guys some time to mesh. I believe odds makers will be overvaluing the Heat early on, knowing the public fascination with the aforementioned superstars. This could lead to some strong plays, and that is the case tonight.

The 76ers made a great hire in Doug Collins, and I fully expect him to have his boys ready to go. The Heat are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Philadelphia. Look for Philly to take the Heat right down to the wire at home tonight. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Rockets +7.5
The odds makers love to overvalue defending champions in their first game of the season, and that is certainly the case here.

While the Lakers are raising another championship banner to the rafters, the Rockets will be bound and determined to rain on the parade.

Kobe Bryant's minutes are expected to be limited early in the season, and the Lakers will be without Andrew Bynum for another month. Yao Ming's minutes will be limited for Houston, but I do expect him to provide a big lift for the Rockets in his return.

These two teams played 4 times last season and they split the two early season meetings. In those games, Houston posted a 10-point win at LA and a 1-point loss at home. With this in mind, I have no doubt that odds maker are giving LA too much respect out of the gate. Take the points as Houston gives the Lakers all they want tonight.

5* NBA Finals Game 7 Monster *BEST BET* on Celtics +7
This looks like it could be the last chance for Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett to win a championship as they are nearing the end of their careers. That will be enough motivation for the Big 3 right there. "It's all-out," Garnett said. "It's for the marbles, it's for everything, all-out. You save nothing. You leave nothing." Kendrick Perkins is out, but Glenn "Big Baby" Davis has shown that he can be very productive, and Rasheed Wallace has the potential for a strong game as well. He got great looks in Game 6. They just didn't go down. My money is on Wallace making the majority of those same shots tonight. Even in an embarrassing Game 6 loss, Boston's defense was still good, holding the Lakers to just 41.8% shooting. We can count on another superb defensive effort from the Celtics, and we can also count on a much better offensive performance. A major key will be Rajon Rondo and his ability to push the pace. If the Celtics can get stops, rebound and outlet the basketball like they did in Game 2, Rondo will have the opportunity to make a lot of plays in the open floor for himself and his teammates. The numbers are in our favor here when you consider that Boston is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games when revenging a road loss vs. an opponent over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 12.3 points in these spots. It is also worth noting that the Celtics are 15-5 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or less under coach Rivers, bouncing back to score 101.1 points in these spots while winning by 1.1 points on average. The Celtics are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS win. I expect a great game that should go right down to the wire tonight. Take the Celtics and the points.

5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Week on Lakers -6.5
In Game 5, Kobe Bryant was the only player that showed up for the Lakers. The other guys have been called out, and I fully expect them to respond. The Lakers have been unbelievable at home all season, going 43-8 and winning by an average of 8.6 points. They are 9-1 at home in the 2010 playoffs, winning those 9 games by an average of 10.7 points. With this being a do-or-die game, I expect the defending champs to rise to the occasion. Guys like Odom, Artest and Fisher are far too talented to lay an egg for a third straight game. They will definitely benefit from the energy of the home crowd. Plus, history is on our side when you consider that plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 1 or more consecutive losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 95-50 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation are winning by an average of 9.1 points per game. Expect the Lakers to make a major statement that they can still win this series with a dominant performance tonight.

5* NBA Finals Game 5 *BEST BET* Lakers +2.5
With the extra day giving Andrew Bynum an opportunity to get extra treatment, I expect him to be much more effective than he was in Game 4. But if for some reason he isn't, I still really like the Lakers' chances here. Odom, Artest, Fisher and Bynum all know they must step up to help Bryant and Gasol, and I expect the help to be provided tonight, especially from Odom. Kobe Bryant is the best player on the floor, and I just don't see him letting LA fall behind in this series. If the role players can do their part, Bryant will take care of the rest. The key thing to note here is that the Lakers are 19-6 ATS when tied in a playoff series since 1996, winning these games by an average score of 99.8 to 93.0. And it is also worth noting that the Lakers are a perfect 9-0 straight up in this situation over the last 3 seasons. Remember that it took a tremendous effort from Boston's bench for the Celtics to win Game 4, and I just don't see those guys being able to provide that same spark tonight. Pound the Lakers!

3* NBA Finals SMASH on Celtics -3.5
It's do-or-die time for Boston, and I like the Celtics to rise to the occasion. Right away, I love the fact that the Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss. Plus, we still can't overlook the fact that the Lakers are only 4-10-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings in this matchup. Rondo wasn't nearly as aggressive offensively in Game 3 as he was in Game 2. Boston just kept running sets to get Ray Allen shots, and Allen kept missing them. I expect Rondo to be a much more aggressive offensively tonight, and that will be the key to Boston's success. In addition, expect the Celtics to take things up another notch on the defensive end. Boston knows it's right back in this series if it can win this game, and it also knows it will be an up hill battle if it doesn't. Expect Boston to leave it all out on the floor to come away with the "W" and the cover.

5* NBA Finals Total of the Year on Lakers/Celtics UNDER 190.5
In the last two games of this series, neither team has shot better than 44.7 percent. I expect the defensive intensity to remain high in Game 4 with the Celtics especially taking things up another notch as this is a must-win game for them. As a result, I expect to see Game 4 come in well Under the number as well. The Lakers are 9-1 Under after allowing 85 points or less this season. Boston is 12-4 Under when revenging a home loss vs. an opponent this season. In addition, the Under is a perfect 4-0 in the Celtics' last 4 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Also, we can't overlook how good of a job the Lakers are doing of getting back on defense to slow down Boston's transition game. Defense wins championships and both of these teams know that. Defense should also keep us Under this number. Best of Luck!

5* NBA Finals Game 3 *BEST BET* (ABC) on Celtics -2.5
Boston returns home with the momentum and added confidence after their Game 2 win in LA. The Lakers are now just 3-10-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings with the Celtics, and they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Boston. The Lakers lost Games 3 and 4 in Oklahoma City and Phoenix in these playoffs against teams that aren't nearly as good defensively so it is no stretch to think Boston can take care of business on its home floor tonight. Having just 1 day of rest in between can be tough, especially when traveling across the country, and the Celtics have handled these situations much better than LA. In fact, the Lakers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 1 day of rest while the Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 day of rest. It is also worth noting that Boston has been money in the small chalk as it is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 or less. The Celtics are also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 NBA Finals games and I look for this impressive trend to continue tonight. Bet Boston!

5* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Celtics +6
Boston is a team of response, and there are plenty of trends that support this claim. In fact, Boston is 9-1 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 103.7 to 92.8. The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points. The fact that this proud Celtics defense allowed more than 100 points for just the second time in their last 10 games will motivate them also. In fact, the Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Plus, the extra rest gives the veteran Celtics plenty of time to recuperate and to refocus, and it is also certainly worth noting that the Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days rest. We also can't ignore the fact that the Celtics are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings and that 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two teams have been decided by a single points. Look for Boston to bounce back strong tonight.

3* NBA Finals Game 1 SMASH (ABC) on Celtics +5.5
Each of the last 3 meetings between these two teams have been decided by a single point, and I expect to see another very tight game tonight. Over the last 3 seasons, Boston has had the slight edge over the Lakers, winning 7 of the 12 games. From a point spread standpoint, Boston has been dominant. The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Los Angeles and 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings overall. It is also worth noting that the road team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 NBA Championship games. I'll take the points with the Celtics in Game 1.

5* Game 6 *BEST BET* (TNT) on Lakers +1.5
I know the Suns are back at home, but it will be very tough for them to recover from the blow that Ron Artest delivered to them with his buzzer beater. After watching Boston move on the Finals last night, the Lakers will be that much more focused to get the job done here so Boston won't have a huge edge in the rest department. The Lakers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win. The Lakers are 37-15 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams allowing 99+ points/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 108.8 to 101.8. Take the Lakers.

5* NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year (ESPN) on Celtics -3
Boston has a very sour taste in its mouth after Game 5. Kendrick Perkins wrongfully ejected w/ 2 bogus technical foul calls, Glen Davis and Marquis Daniels enduring concussions and Rasheed Wallace twisting his back. Perkins will be back on the court tonight as one of his techs was rescinded, but Davis and Wallace are both game time decisions and Daniels is likely out. Boston was the more physical team through the first three games of this series, then it was severely outdone in the physicality department in Game 5. Look for Boston to respond at home tonight. Right away, I love the fact that favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, who are outscoring their opponents by 3 or more points per game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are an incredible 84-36 ATS the last 5 seasons. In addition, favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, are 40-16 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in these situations are winning by an average of 10 and 10.3 points respectfully. Boston is also 23-11 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. an opponent over the last 3 seasons, winning by 8.6 points on average in these spots. The Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and the Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Look for Boston to bounce back strong and win this series tonight while covering the number in the process.

4* Major Game 5 *BEST BET* (TNT) on Lakers -7
After the Lakers lost both Games 3 and 4 in Oklahoma City in round one, they responded with a 111-87 win in Game 5. I expect a similar response tonight. Right away I love the fact that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off 2 straight losses to an opponent, if that opponent is off an upset win over a division rival, are 39-13 (75%) ATS since 1996, winning by an average of 11.9 points in these games. The Lakers have proven to be a team of response as they are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games when tied in a playoff series. The Lakers are 41-7 at home this season, winning those games by an average of 9 points. They are also 7-1 at home against Phoenix over the last 3 seasons, winning those games by an average of 12 points. All signs point to the Lakers bouncing back strong tonight. Lay the points.

3* NBA Playoffs SMASH (ESPN) on Magic -4
If the Magic were going to just pack it in, they would have done so in Boston in Game 4. Instead, they showed a lot of heart and extended the series. Now they're back home, where they are 38-9 on the season, with some momentum on their side. I know Boston stole the first two games of this series on the road, but I can't see it winning three in a row in Orlando. The Magic's Game 4 win will give them some much needed confidence. As a result, expect the three-point shots to start falling. The Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Plus, they are a perfect 13-0 ATS after a win by 6 points or less this season, winning in this situation by an average score of 106.5 to 90.5. I'll play by the numbers tonight. Take the Magic.

5* Game 4 *BEST BET* on Lakers -1
We cashed in with the Suns in Game 4 in their return home as I expected them to play better defense and to feed off the energy of their home crowd. That's exactly what happened, but there were some aberrations in Game 3 that lead me to believe that the Lakers will win tonight. First off, Robin Lopez scored 20 points, nearly 12 above his average. Secondly Amare Stoudemire scored 42 points, nearly 19 over his average. Lastly, the Lakers committed 17 turnovers and the Suns only committed 7. I don't expect Lopez and Stoudemire to have the same kind of nights in Game 4 and I don't expect the Suns to win the turnover battle so convincingly. With these numbers returning closer to normalcy tonight, I think the Lakers will prevail. Remember, LA has had the Suns' number, winning 11 of 15 meetings over the last 3 seasons and covering the spread in 10 of those games. I addition, Nash played a few more minutes that he is accustomed to playing and he was further banged up in Game 3, suffering a broken nose. I don't see him being quite as fresh and effective tonight either. The favorite has covered the number in the last 4 meetings and I look for this trend to continue.

3* Monday Night NBA SMASH on Magic +7
Boston would like to close this series out tonight so it can get some extra rest before the Finals, but it won't be easy against a proud Orlando team. Boston may get the job done tonight, but I'm willing to bet that it won't by more than 6 points. The Magic have been completely taken out of their game in this series, but they will be dangerous tonight as they can now play with nothing to lose. I expect the Magic to play much looser and that will greatly benefit the offense. Plus, the game 3 loss was embarrassing and that will leave the defending Eastern Conference champs very motivated. Some teams pack it in down 0-3, but I don't see the Magic doing that. If they can win tonight and then find a way to win again at home, all of the sudden we're back in Boston for a Game 6. It is still worth noting that the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the Magic are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Meanwhile, the Celtics are 9-21-1 ATS in their last 31 games following a SU win of more than 10 points and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Magic and the points as they take Boston right down to the wire in Game 4.

3* Sunday Night SMASH (TNT) on Suns -2
Plays on home teams in a triple revenge spot - 3 straight losses vs. an opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 95-55 ATS since 1996. In addition, plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a home win, playing with 3 or more days rest, are 55-28 ATS the last 5 seasons. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. The Suns are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. I can't see the Lakers shooting 58% from the field in Phoenix tonight as they're only shooting 45.6% on the road this season. Plus, look for Phoenix to finally play some "D" as it feeds off the energy of its home crowd. Take the Suns.

5* Game 3 *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Magic +4
Down 0-2, it's do-or-die time for the Magic and I expect them to do tonight. This series has been all about the underdog and the road team from a point spread standpoint. In fact, the underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the road team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We also can't overlook how good Orlando has been on the road - 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. From a point spread standpoint, the long layoff in between games does not bode well for Boston either as the Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Orlando has either won or lost by 4 or fewer points in each of the last 4 meetings so I will jump all over the Magic as they bounce back in Boston tonight.

5* 2010 NBA Playoffs Game of the Year (TNT) on Suns +7
The Suns have not lost back-to-back games in these playoffs. I expect them to show up extremely motivated to even this series tonight. In LA's first round Game 2, they barely survived the Thunder, lucky to get a 3-point win. In their second round Game 2, they defeated the Jazz by just 8 points. Phoenix is a better team than both the Thunder and the Jazz. It is explosive enough to hand the Lakers their first home loss of the playoffs tonight. Phoenix must do a better job defensively and they will. But let's face it. The Lakers just shot out of their minds in Game 1. They shot 58% from the field, including 47% from 3-point range. Meanwhile, Phoenix (a good 3-point shooting team), was only 5 of 22 from 3-point land. I expect the Suns to win this 3-point shooting battle tonight as LA cools off considerably. Right away I love our chances when you consider that plays on any team with a shooting percentage of 48% or better on the season, after a game where that team allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher, are 35-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. They are also are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. It is also important to note that the Lakers are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games playing on 1 days rest. Take the Suns and the points.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Celtics +7.5
Game 1 was no fluke. Ever since Boston was blown out at home in Game 3 of its Eastern Conference semifinal series with Cleveland, it has been brilliant. We're talking 4-0 straight up and against the spread with 3 outright wins as an underdog, and two of those came as a dog of 7 or more points. Boston's defense has been terrific, holding its opponents to 88 or fewer points in its last 4 games and 6 of its last 8. And Boston has shown that it can defend the Magic better than just about any other team in the league when you consider that it has held the Magic to 96 or fewer points in 9 of the last 10 meetings. Orlando had rolled to 8 straight wins in the playoffs and 14 straight overall before losing to Boston in Game 1. Now, Boston's confidence continues to soar while the Magic's takes a hit for the first time in a long time. The Celtics are 57-28-2 ATS in their last 87 games as a road underdog, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog. Plus, the underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Bet Boston.

4* Major NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* (TNT) on Lakers -6
The Lakers have had the Suns' number. Over the last 3 seasons, they have won 9 of 12 meetings, including 5 of 6 at home. During this 3-year span, the Lakers are winning by an average of 8 ppg. When playing at home, their average margin of victory raises to 12 ppg. In the Lakers' 2 home games with Phoenix this season, they won by scores of 121-102 and 108-88. They will also benefit from what Boston did to the Magic yesterday. Boston's upset win on the road gives the Lakers that little reminder to make sure they show up and set the tone in Game 1. The last time these two teams met in Phoenix, the Lakers handed the Suns a 102-96 loss to set up a strong system tonight. In fact plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where their opponent scored 100 or more points, playing with 3 or more days rest, are 84-37 ATS since 1996, including 4-1 ATS this season. The underdog is losing by an average of 9.2 points in these games. Take the Lakers.

5* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator on Celtics/Magic UNDER 189.5
This matchup has been an Unders machine as the Celtics are one of the few teams in the NBA that have proven they can defend the Magic consistently. In fact, we have seen 7 of the last 8 meetings play to the Under and 9 of the last 12 meetings in Orlando finish Under. And I also love the fact that road teams with a total of 180 to 189.5 points revenging a same season loss versus an opponent, if that opponent is off 2 or more consecutive road wins, are 72-36 to the Under since 1996, including 18-5 over the last 3 seasons and a perfect 1-0 this season. We are only seeing 181.1 total points scored on average in these games. The Under is 7-1 in the Celtics' last 8 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record and also 7-1 in the Magic's last 8 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Pound the Under.

4* Major Game 6 Winner (ESPN) on Cavs +1.5
Cleveland won't go down without a fight, and they will be extremely motivated this evening after such an embarrassing home loss the other night. In fact, the Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home and 24-7 ATS in their last 31 games following a loss of more than 10 points period. Conversely, the Celtics are only 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a win of more than 10 points and just 2-10 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more this season. They are losing by an average of 1.6 points in these games. The Celtics are also just 11-25 ATS in their last 36 games as a home favorite. We saw the way Cleveland jumped all over the Celtics in Boston in Game 3 after getting embarrassed at home in Game 2, and I expect the Cavs to respond in a similar manner tonight to stay alive.

5* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator (ESPN) on Cavs/Celtics UNDER 196.5
Boston doesn't want to go back to Cleveland for a Game 7, and Cleveland is fighting for its playoff life. In other words, we can expect a very physical, defensive minded Game 6 in Boston tonight. Cleveland just gave up 120 points on its home floor so you can bet it will be tightening the screws defensively. And we can't ignore the fact that the Under is 28-13 in the Celtics' last 41 games following a win of more than 10 points. In addition, Boston is on a 17-4 Unders run after a huge blowout win by 30 or more, and we are only seeing 182.7 total points scored on average in these spots. Also, the Under is 7-1 in the Cavaliers' last 8 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 26-12 in their last 38 games following a double-digit loss at home. Pound the Under.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* (TNT) on Cavaliers -7.5
Over the last 3 seasons, Cleveland is 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in home games against the Celtics, winning those games by 8 points on average. In Cleveland's last 7 home wins against Boston, we have seen winning margins of 8, 11, 31, 15, 5, 11 and 24 points for a 15-point average margin of victory. So right away, if we think Cleveland will win this game, recent history tells us that there is a very good chance it will win it by 8 or more points. Plus, plays on any team revenging a road loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, are 74-38 ATS the last 5 seasons. Cleveland especially has been great when coming off a road defeat. In fact, Cleveland 13-4 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 10.9 points in these games. It is also 23-9 ATS off a road loss over the last 2 seasons period, winning by an average of 10.3 points in these games. In addition, the Cave are 16-6 ATS when listed as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 12.7 points in these games. Both of these teams have made adjustments following defeats in this series, resulting in big wins the following game, and I expect this trend to continue.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Lakers/Jazz UNDER 207
We missed with the Under 203 in Game 3 as the Lakers and the Jazz combined to make 23 3-point shots. To put this in further perspective, these 2 teams only average a total of 12 makes on the season. In other words, the Lakers and Jazz put 33 more points on the board from behind the 3-point line than they normally get. So if they had just hit their averages, we only would have seen 188 points scored in Game 3. With the total having been raised to 207, and with it being highly unlikely that both teams will find so much success behind the 3-point line in Game 4, I love our chances with the Under. I mean, there's no way Kyle Korver is going 9 of 10 from the field and 5 of 5 from beyond the arc in this game. I don't think there's any way Ron Artest even goes 4 of 7 from deep in this game. We've seen 4 of the last 5 in this series go Under in Utah. We also can't overlook the fact that Utah is on a 17-4 Unders run in the 4th game of a playoff series, and we are only seeing 184.1 total points scored on average in these game. Bet the Under.

3* NBA Playoffs SMASH on Hawks +7
Atlanta is showing good value in the home dog role tonight. We saw Atlanta fight hard after getting crushed in its first 3 games against the Cavaliers in last year's Eastern Conference semis, and I expect to see it fight hard again here. The Hawks felt like they might be able to contend for an Eastern Conference title this season. Instead, they have been brutally embarrassed in this series. I just don't see a team that has fought hard in the playoffs each of the last three years going out without a fight. Because of Orlando's lopsided wins in Game 1-3, the betting public is all over the Magic. Sports books were well aware of the type of betting attention the Magic would receive in this game, and that's why their odds makers have set a steep line for Magic backers. There are many things to consider here. First, the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Second, the Hawks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a double digit home defeat. Third, the Hawks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The fourth thing to consider is the one that really stands out. The Magic are just 4-12 ATS after a double digit road win this season, losing by an average of 1.1 points per game in these spots. After getting embarrassed in Game 1, the Hawks fought hard in a Game 2 that was much closer than the final score would lead you to believe. I don't see the Hawks going ice cold in the 4th at home the same way they did in that game. Take the Hawks and the points as they fight hard in the face of elimination.

3* NBA Playoffs SMASH on Celtics +1
After getting brutally embarrassed in Game 3, I expect the Celtics to be very motivated to get the job done this afternoon. This veteran Celtics team is proud group, and I believe it throws a counter punch at LeBron James and company today. It is worth noting that plays on any team (Boston in this case), very good shooting team shooting 48% or better on the season, after a game where that team allowed a shooting percentage of 55% or higher, are 34-10 ATS the last 5 seasons, winning by an average of 7.1 points in this situation. It is also worth noting that plays on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 off an upset loss, a good team, winning 60% to 75% of its games, playing a team with a winning record are 66-30 ATS since 1996, including 6-1 ATS this season. In addition to these strong situations, we find that the Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. We also find that the Cavaliers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Over the last 3 seasons, Boston has won 9 of 11 at home versus the Cavs. I expect Boston to be very physical in this one, playing its best defense of the series, and the result should be a "W".

3* Primetime SMASH (ABC) on Jazz -4.5
Right away, history is on our side here when you consider that plays on home teams revenging 4 or more losses vs. an opponent in the last 2 years, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 39-15 ATS since 1996, and winning by 6.8 points on average. Playing in Utah, where the Jazz are 35-9 S.U. & 29-13-2 ATS, is no picnic. In fact, the Jazz are a ridiculous 24-5-2 ATS in their last 31 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or fewer points and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 or less points. This team is 18-6-2 ATS in its last 26 home games overall and a tremendous 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games following a S.U. loss. The Lakers are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. We saw the struggles the Lakers had on the road in their first round series, and I expect those struggles to continue against an even better home team. Take the Jazz.

3* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator on Lakers/Jazz UNDER 203
The first two games of this series have gone over the number, the under is still 7-2 in the last 9 meetings. It is also a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Utah. This is the first game this series where the total has been listed at over 200 points and that is significant because the Lakers are 14-6 Under when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season, and we are only seeing 195.2 total points scored on average in these games. In addition, Utah is 22-11 Under in home games where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons, and we are seeing an average total score of just 201.8 points in these games. It is also worth noting that the Lakers are 12-4 Under as a road underdog this season, and we are only seeing 188.6 total points scored in this situation on average. With both teams extremely fresh after several days of rest, I expect them both to really get after it on the defensive end tonight. Bet the Under.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Spurs -6.5
This may seem like a lot of points to be laying on a team that is down 0-2 in a series, but that's exactly what the books want Joe Public to think here. They have set a line that has the public piling on Phoenix and they'll look to score big when the Spurs cover this number. San Antonio is a different team at home where they are winning their games by an average of 8.2 points this season. Plus, it's not like this is the first time the Spurs have ever faced a two-game deficit in the playoffs. They will show no panic and they will be ready to answer the call. In addition, I have spotted a system that applies to home favorites who have lost 3 straight games to an opponent, provided both teams have winning percentages between 60 and 75%, which these two teams do. This system is an impressive 77-37 ATS since 1996, producing a winning margin of 7.7 points on average. I also love that the Spurs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite and 21-6-3 ATS in their last 30 playoff games as a favorite. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. This is a must-win game for San Antonio and I fully expect this veteran team to rise to the occasion. Lay the number.

3* SMASH on Cavs -1
Cleveland didn't look very good in its first two games of this series, but I anticipate that its Game 2 embarrassment was just the wake up call LeBron and company needed. In fact, plays on road favorites revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a favorite, off a home loss, are 98-47 ATS since 1996, including 7-1 ATS this season. Teams in this situation are winning by 5.4 points on average. The Cavaliers have proven that they will respond following a blowout loss more times than not as they are an impressive 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Cavaliers are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. We also must keep in mind that the Celtics are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win and just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Lastly, the Cavaliers are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings in this matchup and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Boston. I expect an MVP performance from James tonight as he gets the Cavs the win they need in Boston.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Hawks +10
Expect the Hawks to show up in a big way tonight after being brutally embarrassed in Game 1. After a huge blowout loss like that, we can expect the public to continue to pile on the Magic in Game 2, but the numbers say we should do otherwise. In fact, plays on road teams revenging a road blowout loss of 30 points or more are 29-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in this situation have consistently been undervalued and are covering the number because they are only losing by 4.4 points on average. Plus, Atlanta is 12-3 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. greater than 70%) this season and is 8-1 ATS after being held to 85 points or less this season. The Hawks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Look for the Hawks to take the Magic down to the wire tonight.

4* Major NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Spurs +3
Despite allowing Phoenix to shoot nearly 52% from the field in Game 1, the Spurs found themselves down just 1 with just over 4 minutes to go in the game. Steve Nash went off in Game 1, looking very fresh after getting several days to rest his strained right hip. Expect the Spurs to tighten the screws defensively tonight, and don't expect Nash to be nearly as good without as much time in between games to recover. San Antonio's big 3 were as advertised in Game 1, but they didn't get much help. Coach Popovich has called out the other guys and I expect them to respond. After losing a close Game 1 in Dallas, we saw the Spurs respond to steal Game 2 with an impressive 102-88 win. After allowing the Mavs to shoot over 47% from the field in Game 1, they held them to just 36.5% shooting in Game 2. This is clear evidence of the adjustments that were made and the heightened level of focus and intensity that the Spurs came with after falling behind a game. I expect the same tonight. The Spurs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss and we'll take them in this bounce back spot here.

5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Month on Jazz/Lakers UNDER 199
7 of the last 8 meetings between these two teams have finished Under the number with Game 1 of this series finally breaking the Unders streak. Game 1 only finished a few points over the number despite the Jazz allowing the Lakers to shoot over 53 percent from the field. I don't see that happening again tonight. Plus, the Lakers are well-known for playing a slower pace in the postseason than they do in the regular season. As a result, the Under is 20-8 in the Lakers' last 28 playoff games as a favorite and 16-5 in their last 21 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Under is also 12-5 in the Lakers' last 17 home games. The fact that odds makers have come back with basically the same line that was set for Game 1, despite that game going over, tells me that they are looking for action on the over. And they are getting it. We'll gladly go against the grain as both of these teams really buckle down defensively in what should be a very intense Game 2. Bet the Under.

5* NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Game of the Year on Celtics +6.5
The Celtics led by 11 points in the third quarter of Game 1, and they had their chances down the stretch, but did not cash in on their opportunities. They'll come back in Game 2 more focused and hungrier. Why am I so confident of this you ask? Boston is 15-3 straight up following their last 18 losses in the playoffs. And as we enter Game 2, we see that Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following a S.U. defeat and 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games following an ATS defeat. Conversely, Cleveland is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games following a S.U. win. This Cleveland team has been consistently overvalued at home and it is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 home games as a result. It is also just 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Celtics are an impressive 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as an underdog and I'll take them in that role here tonight.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Lakers -7
The Jazz made relatively easy work of Denver in round one, but they are now up against a team that has had their number.  The Lakers are 3-1 against the Jazz this season with all 3 of those wins coming by double digits.  In the Lakers' 2 home meetings in this matchup, they won by scores of 101-77 and 106-92.  The Lakers play way better defense than the Nuggets and they are a much more disciplined offensive team.  We can't ignore the fact that the Jazz are just 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog overall.  It is also worth noting that the Jazz are 3-11 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Los Angeles against the Lakers.  Take LA in Game 1.

3* SMASH (TNT) on Cavs -7
Home court has been huge when these two teams have gotten together.  Over the last 3 seasons, Cleveland is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS at home against Boston, winning by an average of 11.0 ppg.  The Celtics knocked LeBron James and company out of the postseason in a tough 7-game series two years ago, and the Cavs have not forgotten.  Now, James will be out for revenge, looking to make a statement in Game 1, with a much better supporting cast.  Cleveland has been a beast in this round of the postseason, going 17-5-1 ATS in its last 23 Conference Semifinals games.  The Cavaliers are also a strong 17-7-1 ATS in their last 25 playoff games as a favorite.  Meanwhile, the Celtics are just 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and only 4-13 ATS in their last 17 Conference Semifinals games.  Plus, the long layoff between games figures to disrupt the rhythm the Celtics found in round 1.  In fact, they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days rest.  The Cavs have thrived when getting lengthy rest.  They are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 3 or more days rest.  Take the Cavs in Game 1 as they look to send a message right out of the gate.

3* SMASH on Lakers +1
The Lakers don't want this series to go any further.  It's been a great showing by this young Thunder team, but I expect the Lakers to flex their muscles and end this series tonight.  In fact, plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3, after allowing 35 points or less in the first half last game, against an opponent that scored 35 points or less in the first half last game (same team in this case since it is a series), are 26-6 ATS the last 14 seasons, 10-3 ATS the last 5 seasons and 1-0 ATS this season.  Under Phil Jackson, dominant play has been contagious.  In fact, the Lakers are 12-2 ATS in road games after leading in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half under coach Jackson, winning by an average of 5 ppg in this situation.  No Laker played more than 32 minutes in Game 5 so they should be fresh and hungry tonight.  Kobe and the boys no this game is a big test in determining if they are ready to win another title.  I just don't see them not showing up tonight.

5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Week on Hawks -2
I think you'll all agree with me that Atlanta is the more talented team.  Milwaukee has played harder and smarter the last 3 games and it has won them all as a result, but I can't see the more talented side losing 4 straight times.  This is one of the most motivated spots I've seen the Hawks in all season.  They are playing with triple revenge and facing elimination after completely blowing Game 5 in the closing minutes.  If the Hawks have any heart at all, and I think they do, they'll win this game comfortably tonight.  Road favorites that are out to revenge an upset loss as a home favorite are 77-37 ATS the last 14 seasons, including 4-1 ATS this season.  The favorite is 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings between these two teams.  The Bucks are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 playoff games as an underdog.  The Hawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a small favorite of 4.5 or less points.  The Hawks have the better players and the motivation, and this should result in a big win tonight.

3* Thursday Night NBA Playoffs SMASH (TNT) on Blazers -1
The Blazers have won 4 of their last 5 home games against the Suns, and I believe they continue to have the Suns number at home tonight. The home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, which shows you how important home court has been in terms of the point spread. The Blazers will be extremely motivated tonight as this is a must-win game and because they were just embarrassed in Game 5. Brandon Roy especially has something to prove. In his first game back he played well in limited action, scoring 10 points, but he did not perform well in Game 5. That poor performance will have him very motivated tonight. Plus, Roy says all restrictions are off. I expect him to play a lot and I expect him to play like the All-Star he is. The Blazers are a team that takes pride in their defense and they were not at all pleased with their performance on the defensive end last game. With this in mind, it is worth noting that Portland is 14-6 ATS after allowing 105 points or more this season, winning by an average score of 99.5 to 93.5 in these spots this season. In fact, the Blazers are an impressive 14-3 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Expect the defense to be turned up tonight. Lastly, it is worth noting that the Trail Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss. We'll bet the Blazers in this bounce back spot.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Nuggets -7
The Lakers returned home after back-to-back defeats to the Thunder and took care of business last night. The Mavs also returned home after 3 straight defeats to the Spurs and gave San Antonio a beating last night. I expect the Nuggets to follow suit here in this do-or-die Game 5. First off, I love the fact that plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after 1 or more consecutive losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 70-32 ATS the last 3 seasons, including 20-9 ATS this season. Denver has been sensational at home all season long, carrying a 35-8 record and an average winning margin of 8.8 points. In fact, Denver is an awesome 16-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 113.7 to 98.3 in these spots. When Utah has been catching big points on the road, it has been for good reason. The Jazz are only 2-7 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Jazz are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Denver. Pound the Nuggets.

3* Crunch Time Bailout (TNT) on Lakers -6
The Lakers know they can't afford to go back to OKC trailing in this series because that could mean lights out. All the pressure is on the Lakers here, but after getting completely embarrassed in Game 4, I look for LA to rise to the occasion tonight. LA is a perfect 7-0 at home against the Thunder over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average of 10.0 points in these games. The Lakers are on a 17-5 ATS run when tied in a playoff series and 13-3 ATS after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Plus, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, are 38-16 ATS the last 5 seasons. And teams in this situation are winning by an average of 10 points. The Lakers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take the Lakers.

3* SMASH (TNT) on Bulls +12
This line has been inflated because of Cleveland's dominant 23-point win in Game 4 with books knowing that the public will be hungry to jump on the Cavs here. But blowouts like these just haven't happened in this matchup. In fact, 6 of the last 9 meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or less. Two that weren't were just 14 and 13-point margins. Chicago will be very motivated in this spot after such an embarrassing defeat, and because it is facing elimination. The Cavs are commonly overvalued, and they are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win as a result. Meanwhile, the Bulls have commonly been undervalued, and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss as a result. They have also won their last 4 games ATS following a loss of more than 10 points. We'll take the Bulls here.

4* Major NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Hawks -1.5
After comfortable double-digit wins in Games 1 and 2, the Hawks relaxed in Game 3 and were blown out by 18 points. That embarrassing loss should be enough to refocus the Hawks and get them back in the win column tonight. Atlanta has responded well in these situations all season. In fact, it is 8-1 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more this season, winning by an average score of 107.3 to 96.0 in these spots. The favorite is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings. The Hawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite. The Bucks are just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 playoff games as an underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or less points. Take the Hawks.

4* Major NBA Playoffs Super System Slaughter on Nuggets +2
Off back-to-back defeats, look for the Nuggets to come storming back tonight. This is a team that was oh so close to the NBA Finals a season ago and I can't see it going out in the first round to a short-handed Jazz team. The Nuggets are an impressive 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of more than 10 points. This tells me that they don't take kindly to being embarrassed. The Nuggets have also played very well against the Jazz. They are 7-2-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings and 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Utah. In other words, a third straight loss to Utah is highly unlikely. Expect a much better defensive effort tonight as Denver is 13-4 ATS after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 111.1 to 102 in these spots. Take the Nuggets.

5* NBA Playoffs Revenge Game of the Year on Mavs +2.5
Off back-to-back defeats, look for the Mavs to finally have their revenge today. Dallas is the best road team in the NBA, and it has had San Antonio's number. It is the deeper team as well. It let game 3 slip away, blowing a 68-59 second half lead, and I can't see it letting game 4 slip away as well. Right away you have to like the fact that the Mavericks are 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings in San Antonio and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. In addition, the Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 or less points. Dallas is 20-9 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 6.3 points in these spots, and 13-4 ATS in road games off a road loss over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average of 8.6 in these spots. Bet the Mavs.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Lakers +2
All the talk is about how the youngest team in the NBA has hung with the defending NBA champs. Expect the Lakers to hush up that talk tonight with an outright win. The Lakers had Game 3 in the bag had Kobe not gone ice cold in the 4th, and I don't see him staying cold tonight. The Lakers want this one badly so they can go back to LA with a chance to close out the series. The Lakers have won 12 of their last 14 games against the Thunder so we shouldn't be ready to write the Lakers off after one loss. Plain and simple, this is a statement game for LA, and I expect it to make the statement that it is still the team to beat. The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog and we'll take the points.

3* Early Annihilator on Suns -1.5
The Blazers will play better defense than they have the last two games, but it still likely won't be enough to come away with a win. The injury-riddle Blazers are now expected to be without Nicolas Batum and his double-digit scoring average. In addition, he is Portland's best perimeter defender. You'll see a great effort from the Blazers here, but at the end of the day, they just don't have enough fire power to pull this one out. The Suns are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite and the Trail Blazers are only 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home. Take the Suns.

5* Friday NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Mavericks +3.5
The Mavericks are the better team in this series, and I expect them to flex their muscles tonight. The Mavs are coming off an upset loss in Game 2, but that's not a bad situation for them to be in when you consider that they are 14-3 ATS in road games off an upset loss over the last 2 seasons, winning by an average score of 103 to 94.8 in these games. Meanwhile, San Antonio is just 6-15 ATS off a road win this season. Dallas is 27-14 on the road this season, which is good for the best road mark in the NBA. In other words, the Mavs can win on the road. They are an impressive 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Mavericks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home. They are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings in San Antonio. It is also worth noting that the Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Look for the Mavs to bounce back strong in Game 3.

3* NBA SMASH (ESPN) on Heat -4
Miami was brutally embarrassed in Game 2, and I expect it to respond with a win and cover tonight. The numbers are definitely on our side here as plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, are 38-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. It is also worth noting that the Celtics are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU win of more than 10 points, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. The key for Miami is for Dwayne Wade to get some help, and I believe it is coming tonight. Jermaine O'Neal was missing point blank shots in Game 2 that I just can't see him missing in Miami. Look for a motivated Miami team to get back in this series with a win and cover this evening.

3* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator on Suns/Blazers UNDER 204.5
Each of the first two games in this series have gone Over, and yet the total for Game 3 is right around where it has been in each of the first two games. This tells me that odds makers are looking for action to come in on the Over, and they are getting it. Portland, a team that takes pride in its defense, was absolutely embarrassed in Game 2, giving up 119 points to the Suns and allowing them to shoot 52.3% from the field. Expect the Blazers to be extremely motivated to get after it on the defensive end after such a poor performance. In fact, Portland is 16-5 Under after allowing 110 points or more over the last 3 seasons, and it is only allowing 89.7 points on average in these spots. Also, Phoenix is 8-1 Under in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season, and we are only seeing a total of 201.6 points scored on average in these spots. Bet the Under.