4* NBA Late Night Total NO BRAINER on Kings UNDER

This total might seem like it's way to low given the Suns have allowed 124 or more points in each of their first 3 games, twice allowing 130+. The most recent was a 88-130 defeat to the Clippers, which cost head coach Earl Watson his job just 3 games into the season. That's on the players and their lack of effort. I expect them to come out and given it all they got at home in this one. 

The Kings on the other hand are a team that has played in some really low-scoring games to start the year. They held the Rockets to 105 points in a game that had just 205 points with a total of 216.5. They then combined for 181 at Dallas with a total of 202 and 175 at Denver with a total of 212.5. Sacramento has held all 3 of their opponents under 44% shooting and now face a Suns team that has failed to score 90 in 2 of their 3 games. Key here is the Kings don't play at a frantic pace and aren't a great offensive team. Sacramento is averaging just 90.7 ppg.  Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets OVER

Houston has went UNDER the total in each of their last two games, both games finishing with 205 or less. I think that has the total way too low for tonight's showdown against the Grizzlies. The Rockets only shot 39.8% from the field against at Sacramento on no rest after the big win at Golden State and still managed 105 points. They finished with 107 in their next game at home against the Mavs, but it would have been a lot more if the game wasn't a blowout. Houston had 92 points thru 3 quarters. 

Memphis is a good defensive team, but I don't see them being able to keep the Rockets offense in check with this game being played in Houston. Key here is the Grizzlies are in good form offensively to start the year, averaging 107.0 ppg. I think both teams easily eclipse the century mark and this one finishes closer to 225. Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Vegas INSIDER Top Play on Bucks UNDER

This might seem like a low total given the Bucks are giving up 108.7 ppg, but that's more of who Milwaukee has played. They opened the season at Boston before hosting the Cavs and Blazers. They held both the Celtics and Blazers UNDE 43% shooting and should be able to do it here against a Hornets team that is only hitting 41.5% from the field in two games against the Pistons and Hawks. 

Charlotte is playing a much slower-paced game with the focus on defense and the offense running through big man Dwight Howard. I look for both of these teams to struggle to get in any kind of rhythm offensively and don't think either side will be able to reach the 100 point mark in this one. Take the UNDER! 

3* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT  on Pistons -

I like the value here with Detroit laying a short number against the 76ers. Philadelphia is a good young team, but are getting a little too much respect on the road. The Pistons only loss so far in 2017 is a 4-point loss at Washington. Their only home game was the opener against Charlotte, which they won by 12 as a slim 2.5-point favorite. I look for Detroit to take control of this one early and pull away late for a comfortable win. 

Pistons are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a losing road record and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games with a total of 210 to 219.5. Philadelphia is only 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in the series and only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 trips to Detroit. Take the Pistons! 

4* LATE INFO INSIDER on Lakers OVER

No Analysis on late releases

3* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER  on Hawks OVER

The fact that Atlanta scored just 91 in their last game at Charlotte has this total lower than it should be. Brooklyn has decided that defense isn't something they are all that interested in playing and I don't see it changing here. The Nets gave up 140 at Indiana in their opener and 121 last time out at home against the Magic.

Each of their first two games have had a combined score of at least 147 points. They also let both of those teams shoot better than 50% from the field, which speaks volumes to their effort on that side of the ball. The Hawks scored 117 at Dallas in their opener and I think they easily hit that mark, which should be more than enough to push this one over the number set by the books. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Clippers -

I think a lot of people wrote off the Clippers when Chris Paul decided to go to Houston, but this is still one of the top teams in the West and they are coming into this season with a chip on their shoulder. LA looked great in their opener against the Lakers, holding them to just 92 points and winning by 16 despite a bad shooting night (39.3%). 

I look for the shots to fall at a higher rate and for the Clippers to make easy work of the Suns tonight. Phoenix bounced back from a 76-124 loss to the Blazers in their home opener with a better showing, but still lost 130-132 to the Lakers last night. Their 3 best players in Booker, Bledsoe and Warren all logged 30+ minutes. I look for the Suns to come out flat and suffer another embarrassing loss.

Phoenix is a mere 4-15 ATS in their last 19 road games after scoring 115 or more in their previous game. The home team and the favorite are both 6-1 ATS last 7 in the series. Take Los Angeles! 

3* NBA Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Blazers +

For whatever reason Portland wasn't getting a ton of love coming into this season and I think they are still flying under the radar, which is hard to do when you are off back-to-back blowout road wins. The thing is they beat a couple of teams no one is expecting a lot out of, but I think we could see the Blazers be the Rockets of last year, who just covered everything to start the season as no one believed they were as good as they were playing. 

Portland is getting it down on both sides of the ball, averaging 119 ppg and allowing just 86 ppg. They held the Suns to 76 and Phoenix went out in their next game and scored 130. Indiana had just put up 140 and they held them to 96. Milwaukee's offense hasn't looked great and I think they struggle to keep pace with the Blazers in a bit of a letdown spot after hosting the Cavs on national TV last night. Take Portland! 

5* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Blazers UNDER

The books have set the bar too high on the total for Saturday's non-conference matchup between the Blazers and Bucks. Portland's defense has been exceptional to start the year. The Blazers held the Suns to just 76 points in their opener and that same Phoenix team score 130 the next night. They followed it up by holding the Pacers to just 96 and Indiana had scored 140 in their previous game.

Bucks are talented young team with a great player in Antetokounmpo, but aren't a great 3-point shooting team and are strong defensively. Exactly what you look for when you want a low-scoring game. I also think the tempo of this game won't be up to normal pace with both teams playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. For Portland it's their 3rd road game in 4 nights and Milwaukee just put it all on the line last night against the LeBron and the Cavs at home. 

Backing this play is a great long-term system. The UNDER is 58-25 (70%) over the last 5 seasons (3-0 to start 2017) when you have a total of 200 or more in a non-conference game with a team that averaged 14 or fewer turnovers/game the previous year (Blazers). Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Bulls UNDER

I just don't see these two teams playing a very high-scoring game here tonight. San Antonio is without their best offensive weapon and MVP candidate in Kawhi Leonard, as well as starting PG Tony Parker. Chicago has half their roster either hurt or suspended and even at full strength the Bulls were going to feature one of the weakest rosters in the NBA, as they are in the very early stages of a major rebuilding phase. 

San Antonio is one of the most efficient defenses in the league just about every year and were spot in their opener, holding the T-Wolves to just 99 points on 43.5% shooting. Chicago only connected on 41.6% of their attempts at Toronto and I think they are going to find it really hard to put the ball in the basket tonight. Key here is we should get enough effort out of the Bulls defensively to keep this from going over. 

Backing this play is a great long-term system. The UNDER is 58-25 (70%) over the last 5 seasons (3-0 to start 2017) when you have a total of 200 or more in a non-conference game with a team that averaged 14 or fewer turnovers/game the previous year (Spurs). Take the UNDER!

5* 76ers/Raptors VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Raptors OVER 

I look for these two teams to fly OVER the total set here by the books. Philadelphia scored just 92 in the loss at home to Boston last night and are going to be without one of their best defenders in Embiid, who isn't playing back-to-backs just yet. I think the entire 76ers team struggles on defense being on the road with no rest against a potent Toronto offense that needed just 83 shots to score 117 in their opener.

The Raptors did allow a Bulls team that was missing half their roster to score 100, so we can expect Ben Simmons and company to at least hit that mark. Keep in mind that Philadelphia had 115 in their opener at Washington. 

OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings overall and 6-2 in the last 8 times they have played in Toronto. OVER was 14-6 in 76ers last 20 games last year when playing on no rest and 7-0 in Toronto's last 7 home games when playing against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA Late Night VEGAS INSIDER  on Warriors -

Unfortunately for the Pelicans they are going to get a pissed off Warriors team, who has to be chomping at the bit to get back on the floor after blowing a 15-point lead in the 2nd half in a 121-122 home loss to the Rockets. There was some concern here with Draymond Green being able to play, but he's going to be in action. 

New Orleans has two of the best big men in the game, but that's about it. Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins both had a double-double and combined for 61 points, but only managed 91 for the game and lost by 8 to a pretty average Memphis team. I just don't see the Pelicans having enough offense, mainly 3-point shooting, to keep this competitive. Take Golden State! 

4* NBA Over/UNDER Total DOMINATOR on Jazz UNDER

The Timberwolves should be one of the more improved defensive teams this season. They added in Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson and Jeff Teague to pair with Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is a defensive first guy and after not playing well on that side of the ball against the Spurs in the opener, I expect a strong showing at home against the Jazz. 

Utah is also the ideal teal for a team to go up against when you want to a low-scoring affair. The Jazz don't play at a frantic pace and are very strong defensively with the best rim protector in the game in Gobert. They allowed the fewest points in the league last year, giving up just 96.8 ppg and were on point in their opener, allowing just 96 to a very good Denver team that wants to get up and down the floor. 

UNDER is 21-9 in the T-Wolves last 30 games against a division opponent and 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games against the Jazz. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Eastern Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets OVER

Defense is clearly not a priority for the Nets. Brooklyn ranked 2nd to last in points allowed last year at 112.5 ppg and started out the 2017 season by giving up 140 to a Pacers team that lost their best scorer in Paul George. The big difference is that the Nets now have some offensive fire-power to stay with teams. They scored 131 against the Pacers and even with the loss of Lin, should continue to score at a high rate. 

Orlando put up 116 in their opener against the Heat, while giving up 109 and that was with Miami shooting just 43% from the field. Both these teams want to push the pace and play in the open court, which should have us flying over the mark set by the books. 

History is also on our side here. The OVER is hitting at a 61% clip since 1996 when you have a team off a combined score of 225 or more against a team off a combined score of 235 or more. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Undervalued UNDERDOG on Pistons +

I'm taking the points here with Detroit in Friday's showdown at Washington. The Wizards had their hands full in their home opener against the 76ers, where they failed to cover as a 7-point favorite.

I just feel Washington is getting a little too much love to start the season. They are down starting power forward Markieff Morris and could be without his backup in Jason Smith, leaving them very thin at the 4.

Detroit really impressed in their opener, defeating a good Charlotte team by 12 at home. They held the Hornets to just 90 points and under 40% from the field. They also took great care of the ball with just 9 turnovers. I like their chances of keeping this close and could easily see them winning this outright. Take Detroit. 

3* NBA Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Cavs -

Not to take anything away from the Bucks, who are going to be a force in the east for years to come, but this is simply too good of a price to pass up on the Cavs. Cleveland let a big lead slip away in an unfortunate non-cover against the Celtics at home on Tuesday, winning 102-99 as a 4.5-point favorite. That's helped us here with this line, plus we can count on the Cavs not taking their foot off the gas in this one. 

Losing Irving hurts, but I really like the moves Cleveland made in the offseason and really believe they are a better overall team than they were a year ago and will only get better once Isaiah Thomas returns from injury. The Cavs know the Bucks are a team on the rise and will want to make a statement against their division rivals early on. 

Whether it's a big home crowd or sold out arena on the road, Cleveland has been a great bet on Friday, going 23-8 ATS over their last 31, which includes a 13-4 ATS mark over the last 2 seasons. Take Cleveland! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Pistons OVER

Washington combined for 235 points with the 76ers in their home opener and I see another high-scoring game against Detroit at home tonight. The Wizards are down starting power forward Markieff Morris and may also be without his backup in Jason smith, who left the last game with a shoulder injury. They don't have a lot of other options outside of moving Kelly Oubre Jr. into the 4, which becomes a much more uptempo offense in their version of 'small ball' 

Detroit held the Hornets to just 90 points in their opener, but Charlotte was down 3 key players in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Nicolas Batum and Michael-Carter Williams. While that aided their defense, the Pistons offense was sharp, connecting on 43% from the field. They are more than capable of running with the Wizards. Both teams should easily get to 100 points and have this finishing closer to 220. Take the OVER! 

4* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Thunder -

I see no reason why OKC won't turn this into a blowout against the Knicks tonight, as they open the season at home in a nationally televised game on TNT. This team built around the all-star trio of Westbrook, Anthony and George aren't going to be as good right now as they will be in December, but they don't need to be great to dismantle this Knicks team. 

New York is in full on rebuilding mode and simply don't have the offensive playmakers to keep this close. Rookie point guard Frank Ntilikina will be wondering what he got himself into when he tries to guard Westbrook. At the same time, Westbrook is going to make his life miserable when he has the ball. The Knicks didn't even average 100 points/game in the preseason and I don't see them coming close to the century mark in this one. 

There's also a little extra incentive here for the Thunder players to make sure Carmelo gets a win against his former team. It might not be pretty at times, but OKC should pull away and win this by at least 15 points. Take Oklahoma City! 

5* Knicks/Thunder NO LIMIT Top Play on Thunder/Knicks UNDER

This is just too many points for this matchup. I believe we are seeing a high total here because of the fact that the Thunder now have 3 superstars in Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. As good as those 3 are, it's going to take some time for these guys to form a chemistry on offense. George and Anthony are accustomed to being "the guy," but will have to learn to take a back seat to Westbrook. 

I think it takes as much as the first 20 games before this team really gels. The other thing is the depth isn't what it use to be. The Thunder are going struggle to get a whole lot out of their bench. 

There's also a decent chance the starters don't play the entire game here, as the Knicks have the makings of one of the worst teams in the league. New York just doesn't have the offensive fire-power and in today's game where everyone is lighting up the scoreboard, they didn't even average 100 ppg in the preseason when no one is playing defense. I don't see the offense doing much here on the road in what's going to be electric atmosphere inside Chesapeake Energy Arena. Take the UNDER! 

4* NBA Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bulls +

I think we are seeing a big overreaction here with this line. It's well known the Bulls are going to be one of the worst teams in the league and they were just in the news for the wrong reasons with a couple teammates getting into it at practice. No one is giving this team a shot and while I don't see them winning this game, I think they surprise here and keep it much closer than expected. 

As good as the Raptors are it's not going to be easy to get excited about playing a team like Chicago, who has a bunch of nobody's on the roster. The one thing to keep in mind is that with the loss of Rondo, Butler and Wade, they can incorporate more of head coach Fred Hoiberg's offensive scheme, which is floor spacing and attacking with the 3-point shot. 

Toronto also has a history of not being able to cash against this team. The Bulls are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 trips to Toronto. They make it 8-0 tonight. Take Chicago! 

3* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on 76ers/Wizards OVER

I think we are going to see a ton off offense and very little defense in the first of ESPN's double-header on Wednesday. The Wizards were 5th in the league last year at 109.2 ppg and should be every bit as explosive with their core back. Washington's defense wasn't great, giving up 107.4 ppg and I look for them to have their hands full against what many believe will be one of the most improved teams in the league. 

The 76ers not only have a healthy Embiid, but they get last year's No. 1 pick Ben Simmons after he didn't play at all last season, plus add in this year's No. 1 pick in Markelle Fultz. Not to mention a sneaky good free agent signing in sharpshooter J.J. Redick from the Clippers. When healthy, this is one of the deeper teams in the league and I expect them to look to push the pace with Simmons and Fultz.

While they could develop into a decent defensive team, that's going to take some time and probably won't be for a season or two, as they are so young and don't have a lot of chemistry together. Both teams should score well over a 100 points in this one. Take the OVER! 

3* NBA Undervalued UNDERDOG on Nets +

The Nets were an NBA-worst 20-62 last year and have been one of the public's favorite teams to fade for the past few seasons. The public isn't going to hesitate laying the points here with the Pacers, as they will just go off what they remember from last year. 

The thing is, these are two drastically different teams. Indiana is in rebuilding mode after losing Paul George. The Nets on the other hand are improved, brining in the likes of D'Angelo Russell, DeMarre Carroll and Allen Crabbe, plus several others who figure to contribute. They also have a healthy Jeremy Lin at the point and when he was on the floor this team was a lot more competitive a season ago.

I'll take the points as some added insurance, but I full expect the Nets to win this game outright. Take Brooklyn! 

4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Pistons UNDER

Both the Pistons and Hornets figure to be in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race and I think both teams are going to rely heavily on the defense this season. Charlotte went out an added Dwight Howard, who needs the game to be played at a slow pace to be a serious factor. The projected starting 5 lacks scoring outside of point guard Kemba Walker. 

Detroit's not much different, as they are built around big man Andre Drummond. The Pistons also added one of the premier perimeter defenders in Avery Bradley, who I'm sure will be matched up with Walker. Detroit ranked 26th in scoring last year and I don't see any reason to expect them to be much better. Both were Top 15 in scoring defense and while today's NBA features a lot more high-scoring games, I think we see a defensive battle here in the opener, which is also the first game in Detroit's new arena. Take the UNDER! 

3* Rockets/Warriors Opening Night TOTAL DESTROYER on Warriors UNDER

I like the value here with the massive total for Tuesday's opener between the Warriors and Rockets. These two teams were offensive juggernauts last year, but I just don't see this being a shootout. While the Warriors have basically the same team back from last year, Houston has added a huge new piece to the puzzle in point guard Chris Paul. 

The addition of Paul should make the Rockets a better team, but I think it's going to take some time for this team to find their chemistry. Last year James Harden dominated the ball and the offense ran completely through him. Paul is a similar type of player, who is at his best when the ball is in his hands. It's going to take some time for them to figure it out. 

Golden State's offense will be tough to stop, but this Houston team is as talented and deep as you will find and we can bank on the Rockets giving everything they have here against the defending champs and favorites to win it all this year. As for the Warriors, I think there's enough distractions here with the ring ceremony that we see a them come out less than 100% focused. Houston also added a couple of defensive minded players in P.J. Tucker and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, who give them a better shot at slowing down Durant, plus you now have Paul guarding Curry. Take the UNDER! 

5* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Warriors -

There's no question the refs were doing their part to extend the series at least one more game with how they officiated that 1st quarter of Game 5, which Cleveland managed to score a ridiculous 49 points in the 1st quarter and 86 in the 1st half. The Cavs were shooting free throws left and right early. That played a huge role in the game. More than anything them getting off to that strong start gave them confidence, which led to a great shooting night. It also got the Warriors in foul trouble and didn't let them play with the same intensity on defense. It's not that Golden State wasn't committing any fouls, it's just they weren't calling the same fouls on Cleveland on the other side of the ball. With the series back in Golden State, I look for the Warriors to get a more favorable whistle and that should be all they need to not only win, but to win in blowout fashion. Take Golden State!

5* NBA Finals VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Warriors -

I'll be the first to admit that I was fortunate to cover with the Warriors in Game 3, but I'm not jumping off them, even with a bigger number in Game 4. Cleveland played as well as they could and had to feel like they had the game won before that epic collapse in the final 3 minutes. I just don't see the Cavs emotionally and physically having what it takes to keep Game 4 competitive. Yes, it's the NBA Finals, but going out with a fight isn't as big a deal for a team that just won the title last year. On the flip side of this, I see no letdown for the Warriors, who are not only chasing a perfect 16-0 record in the postseason, but I believe they want to return the favor and celebrate the title on Cleveland's floor after losing Game 7 at home last year. You have to be 100% locked in to beat this Warriors team and I just don't see being the case for Cleveland, who I think will be quick to throw in the towel once Golden State gets anywhere close to a double-digit lead. Take Golden State!

5* NBA Finals NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors -

As much as everyone wants Cleveland to make this a series and win Game 3 at home, I just don't think it's going to happen. It would be one thing if Golden State finished off the Cavs last year after taking a 3-1 lead, but because they failed to do so, I don't see them taking any game for grantit. I look for them to come out 100% locked in on taking a 3-0 lead and I just don't know what Cleveland is going to do to stop them. LeBron is averaging a triple-double and they are getting beat by 20+ points/game. Even if the Cavs' role players step up and play better, I still think it takes a near perferct performance just for them to win this game. I also hear alot about how the first two games last year in Golden State were blowouts. That team didn't have Durant and he's the MVP of the finals right now. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Finals NO LIMIT Top Play on OVER

After a relatlvely low-scoring Game 1, I think we are seeing some decent value here on the total and it going over the mark in Game 2. Keep in mind the total was as high as 227 in Game 1. Golden State scored 113 and it could have been a lot more had they not missed so many easy shots around the rim. The real killer to the total in Game 1 was the Cavs inability to get their offense going, as well as they just shot the ball bad. Cleveland shot just 34.9% from the field. What people overlook is the Warriors also didn't have a great shooting performance, as they hit only 42.5%. Their worst mark from the field since a regular season meeting against the 76ers back on March 14. The lopsided score also aided a lower scoring Game 1, though I think we could see another blowout and this game still fly over the mark. Take the OVER!

5* NBA Finals NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors -

These two teams are clearly in a class above the rest of the league, I just feel that the Warriors are the more complete team. James is the best player in the game, but he's going up against 4 of the best players in the game in Durant, Curry, Thompson and Green, plus I feel that Golden State has the deeper roster. You also can't discount the revenge here with the Warriors after blowing a 3-1 lead in last year's Finals.

It's also worth pointing out that the home team has dominated the spread in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, going 11-1 ATS in the last 12. On top of that, James' teams are 1-6 ATS in Game 1 of the Finals. Take Golden State! 

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Celtics +

Not a big surprise that Boston is a bigger home dog here in Game 5 than they were in Games 1 and 2 with the loss of star point guard Isaiah Thomas, but I'm not so sure the loss of Thomas is as bad as people think. The Celtics won their first game without him in Cleveland and followed that up with another strong showing in a loss in Game 4, where Irving went off and the Cavs didn't miss in the 2nd half (shot 65% from the field).

How are they better? As good of a scorer as Thomas is, he's a major liability on defense, especially when he's got to guard Irving and get put in pick-n-rolls with LeBron. At the same time, Boston's offense is more of a system than anything, much like the Spurs, which can give teams problem. I actually think the loss of Thomas has helped them move the ball better. I don't see this team going down without a fight and wouldn't be shocked if they won this game outright. Take BOSTON!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Cavaliers -

I know this is a huge number and the Celtics just won outright as an even bigger dog in Game 3, but I just don't see this game being competitive. Cleveland did whatever they wanted in the first two games of the series, including that epic beatdown in Game 2, where they were up by 50. If they were going to suffer a letdown, it was going to be Game 3 and while it happened, they still had a 20+ point lead in the 2nd half.

A 100% locked in Cleveland team will take the floor tonight and no one is going to be more motivated than LeBron James, who has been hearing nothing but how poorly he played in Game 3. I think we could see another massive blowout here and I'm confident that the Cavaliers wins here by 20+ points. Take Cleveland!

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Warriors -

I'll take my chances with the Warriors closing this series out in fashion, much like they did in the first two rounds on the road. Up 3-0 on the Blazers in Round 1, Golden State defeated Portland 128-103. In the next round, up 3-0 on the Jazz, they crushed Utah on the road 121-95. I expect a similar outcome here and wouldn't be shocked if got ugly. San Antonino gave it all they had in Game 3 without Khawi and lost by 12 and with him still sidelined and David Lee also now out, I just don't see the Spurs truly believing they can come back and make this a series.

As for Golden State, they got a great reminder of what can happen when you take your foot off the gas with the Celtics improbable win yesterday. They also now have a chance to get some extra rest on Cleveland before the finals, who still has to play at least two more games. Take Golden State!

4* Celtics/Cavs Game 3 Annihilator on OVER

Each of the first two games have flirted right on the number with Game 1 just squeaking OVER and Game 2 staying UNDER. Both games we got next to nothing from Boston's offense and still almost hit our mark. I know this series is all but over, but I don't expect the Celtics to go down without a fight here. I also think that we could see the Cavs relax a bit defensively given how easy it's been so far in the series and that Boston will be without their best player in Thomas. As for Cleveland's offense, I don't see them taking their foot off the gas and I don't see the Celtics doing anything here to stop them from lighting up the scoreboard, especially now that the series has shifted to Cleveland Take the OVER! 

5* NBA Conference Finals Game of the Year on UNDER

Each of the first two games in this series have gone well over the total and yet we are seeing the books stick close to their original number of 212 that they opened with for Game 1. With the series shifting to San Antonio and the Warriors off a 36-point blowout win in Game 2, I think Game 3 is poised to be a much lower-scoring game. For one, Golden State is primed for some kind of letdown here after how easy it was in Game 2 and don't figure to shoot as well on the road. San Antonio on the other hand is playing to keep their season alive. While the series isn't over with a loss, the Spurs know their chances of advancing down 3-0 are slim to none against this Warriors team. We are going to get everything San Antonio has and they know their only way of even keeping it close so they have a chance to win is to lock down defensively and slow the pace of play down. My money is on Popovich and his staff to make the proper adjustments and keep the Warriors high-powered attack in check. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Cavs -

I was all over Cleveland in Game 1 and I just can't go against them after what I saw in the opener. As I mentioned in my analysis for Game 1, the Cavs are taking note of everything the Warriors are doing and want to match their perfect 10-0 start to the postseason.The last thing they want is to have this series drag out before taking on Golden State.

I know this team struggled some with Indiana, but they were in the process of turning on that playoff switch after not playing well to close out the regular season. They made easy work of a very good Toronto team in the next round and did whatever they wanted to the Celtics on Wednesday. I truly believe Boston has to play their best just to keep this game close and could do so and still not cover this spread.

LeBron James is playing out of his mind and when he's locked in like this, there's no stopping this team, at least in the Eastern Conference. Keep in mind this is a Cavs team that is fresh right now, having played a mere 9 games in over a month (played first playoff game on 4/15). Take Cleveland!

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Cavs -

Don't think for a second that Cleveland isn't taking notice of the Warriors and their perfect 10-0 start. The Cavs also went a perfect 8-0 in the first two rounds and I'm not buying this team coming out flat. Not after watching how Golden State struggled after their long layoff in Game 1 against the Spurs. Cleveland also has a little extra motivation, as they are trying to take control of home court in the series.

The Cavs won 3 of the 4 meetings in the regular season and I think the most telling of those games was the most recent one on April 5th. At that time these two were neck and neck for the No. 1 seed in the east. Cleveland didn't just go into Boston and beat the Celtics, they dominated them 114-91, easily covering at a near identical line to what we are getting here in Game 1. It's also worth noting the only game the Cavs lost in the regular season series was a 99-103 defeat at Boston, where they shot a miserable 40% from the field.

All of this and we haven't got to the fact that this is a difficult spot for Boston. The Celtics just finished up a grueling 7-game series against the Wizards on Monday. The Cavs haven't played since 5/7. They had a similar layoff between the 1st and 2nd round and won Game 1 over the Raptors rather easily. Take Cleveland!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors -

It's unfortunate what happened with Kawhi Leonard in Game 1, but it was clear that his absence changed everything. It's not so much his scoring that San Antonio missed, but his defense. Sure the rest of the Spurs are going to come out motivated, but this is the Western Conference Finals. Golden State is too talented and respects the game too much to take this one for granted. They haven't forgot what San Antonio did to the Rockets on the road without Leonard to close out their previous series and how this team jumped all over them to start Game 1. I expect a much different Warriors team from the tip and let's face it, this is the most talented team in the league and I just feel it's going to be too much for the Spurs without Leonard to keep this one competitive. Take Golden State!

5* Wizards/Celtics Game 7 Top Play on UNDER

The OVER had gone 4-1 in the series before a grueling 92-91 win by the Wizards in Game 6. It wasn't just one quarter where both teams were off. The highest combined point total of any quarter was 52. That's a 110 pace if they would have reached that mark in every quarter. This is just how the playoffs work. The deeper you get into a series the more intense it gets. That combined with the familiarity with each other usually results in much lower scoring games than what we might have seen earlier in the series.

This is really magnified in Game 7, where it's win or go home. Not only are teams giving 100% on defense every single play, but the pressure of the game often leads to some poorer shooting percentages. For most of the players on both of these teams, this will be the biggest game of their career. I would side with Boston given the advantage the home team has in Game 7 historically, but feel the best value is with the total. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Spurs +

As good as the Warriors have looked in the first two rounds, I think they are going to have a much more difficult time getting past the Spurs. San Antonio just eliminated the Rockets on the road without their best player and did so in blowout fashion. That's a direct credit to Popovich and the system the Spurs have in place. Not that the Spurs are talented, but they aren't on the same level as these Warriors. However, coaching and execution on both sides of the ball will give them a shot. More than anything their defense and ability to keep the Warriors from just unloading 3-pointers. I'm not saying the Spurs win Game 1 on the road, but I do think it's a close game and they cover the near double-digit spread. Take San Antonio!

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Wizards -

As stated in previous writeups for this series, there's such a big home court edge. Both teams rely a lot on their role players and those guys just play better at home. A big part of that is also because both of these teams also take a lot of jump shots and shooting percentages are almost always going to be better at home than on the road. Boston shot 51.1% in both Game 1 and Game 2, then shot 35.1% and 44.3% in games 3 & 4 in Washington, only to return to form an hit 52.9% at home in Game 5. Washington had one of it's worst shooting performances of the season in Game 5, hitting just 38.5% of their shots. Yet they still managed to score 101 points. Prior to that they had scored 111 or more in each of the previous 4. I look for their offense to return to form at home and the Celtics to struggle. Take Washington!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Spurs/Rockets UNDER

These two teams combined for 217 points, just eclipsing the total of 216, but needed OT to get there, as the two combined for only 202 at the end of regulation. The Rockets only played 7 players in that game and all 7 logged at least 26 minutes and 6 of the 7 played 34 or more with 4 players eclipsing 40 minutes. Houston clearly ran out of gas in that game. Playing at home will help those tired legs, but I just don't see the Rockets playing at the ridiculous tempo here and for this one to finish well below the numbers the books have posted. I believe we will see a similar style of game to Game 3, where the two combined for 195 points. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Celtics -

I look for the Celtics to take back control of the series tonight. Washington won the last two, but both of those came at home. They lost each of the first two in Boston and I think with the shift back to Boston the Celtics will be the sharper team. Both of these teams rely a lot on role players and those guys just perform better at home. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Celtics won this series 4-3 with the road team losing all 7. With that said, I also expect a big game here from Boston's Isaiah Thomas, who totaled just 32 points in the two games in Washington after scoring 86 in the first two in Boston. I also like that the media is hyping up how much the Wizards starters are outplaying the Celtics. Adds even more of edge here for them. Take Boston!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Spurs -

Each of the first 4 games in this series have been decided by 10 or more points and I wouldn't be surprised if that trend continued here with San Antonio taking Game 5 at home in convincing fashion. After getting embarrassed in Game 1 on their home floor, the Spurs responded by taking games 2 and 3 by locking down defensively. They got away from that in Game 4, plus the Rockets were the much more desperate team, trying to avoid falling behind 3-1 in the series. I look for Popovich and the Spurs to make the proper defensive adjustments from Game 4 and win here by more than the number. It's also worth throwing out there that the Spurs are 81-28 (74%) in home playoff games since they moved to the AT&T Center back in 2002. Take San Antonio!

4* Warriors/Jazz NBA Over/Under No Brainer on UNDER

The public loves to back the OVER in Warriors games, which has created some great value when they go up against some of the better teams. In fact, the UNDER is 20-5-1 in the Warriors last 26 games against a team that simply has a winning record (not just the elite teams). It's 2-1 in the series with Game 3 in Utah finishing with 193 points on a total of 209. That was with Durant and Curry combining for 61 and Hayward and Gobert teaming up for 50. Utah's known for their defense and the Warriors aren't too far behind them, the media just focuses on the offense. I don't see the Jazz going out without a fight and I also think Golden State is motivated here to match the Cavs with back-to-back sweeps to start the playoffs. I wouldn't be shocked if this game fails to reach 190 points. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Rockets -

It's amazing how much this series has shifted since the Rockets blowout win on the road in Game 1. As good as the Spurs have looked in the last two games, my money is on Houston to regain some of that form from the opener and tie this series up at 2-2. San Antonio has done a tremendous job holding the Rockets offense in check the last two games, but I don't see it happening three times in a row, especially on the road. A big part of Houston's struggles in Game 3, was they simply didn't make shots, as they were a mere 36.4% from the field. I also like that the Rockets are now the more desperate team in the series, as I think they got a bit to comfortable with how easy it was in Game 1. Take Houston!

4* NBA Playoffs ATS Annihilator on Wizards -

The Wizards could easily be up 3-0 in this series, as they have built massive leads in all 3 games. They blew both on the road in the first two games of the series before answering with a 27-point win at home in Game 3. Washington can't afford to let their foot off the gas here, as they don't want to go back to Boston down 3-1. As expected, the Celtics offense didn't perform at the same level on the road as they did at home and that's going to happen when you have a team primarily made up of role players. I wouldn't be shocked if Washington won again in a blowout, but I like their chances of taking this one by more than the number. Take Washington!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Jazz +

I like the value here with the Jazz as a pretty decent sized home dog against the Warriors. Utah has shown some flashes against Golden State in this series and should get a big lift from this series shifting to their home floor. This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Warriors, who have yet to lose in the playoffs, still without their head coach and playing on the road in one of the more difficult places for opposing teams to play. I think there's a decent chance the Jazz wins this game outright, but I'll take the points for some extra insurance. Take Utah!

5* NBA Playoffs VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Rockets -

This has been an interesting series to start. Houston did whatever they wanted in a blowout win in Game 1 on the road, only to turn around and get beat badly on the road in Game 2. I still like what I saw from the Rockets in the opener to back them at this price in Game 3 at home. Houston simply didn't shoot the ball well in Game 2 and failed to match the intensity of the Spurs. I expect a much more focused Rockets team tonight and those outside shots tend to fall at a higher rate at home. I'm confident the Spurs aren't going to hold them under 100 points for a second straight game. Another huge factor here is the loss of Tony Parker for San Antonio. While he's a far cry from his prime, it's never easy replacing minutes lost at the point guard position. Take Houston!

5* Celtics/Wizards NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Wizards -

I really like the Wizards to not only beat Boston in Game 3 at home, but I think they put away the Celtics in convincing fashion. Washington let two golden opportunities to steal one in Boston get away, as they had control of both of those games early and just couldn't finish off the Celtics in the 4th quarter. That was on the road, where the Wizards aren't the same team as they are at home. I look for Washington to once again get up early and this time finish the job. Keep in mind that all the motivation is with the Wizards down 0-2. As for Boston, this is a huge let down spot for them. They have won 6 straight overall and just stole two in a row at home. Keep in mind the Wizards were a perfect 3-0 at home against the Hawks in round 1. Take Washington!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors +

Toronto came up short in Game 1, but that proved to be a great spot for the Cavs off the long lay off. The Raptors lackluster defense and poor shooting night didn't help matters. Toronto is primed for a much better effort in Game 2 and I look for the Raptors to make the proper adjustments here to play a more competitive game from start to finish. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Raptors won this game or at least had a chance to take control late in the 4th quarter. DeRozan and Lowry only combined for 39 points and the Raptors lost by 11. I think those two are closer to 50 tonight. Take Toronto!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Warriors -

I got no problem laying the big number with Golden State in this one. I don't think the Jazz are going to make this much of a series. The Warriors are simply too talented. The Warriors have had over a week to rest up, practice and get back some of that chemistry with Durant. As good as Utah is defensively, I just don't think they are going to be able to much to slow down Golden State in this one. Keep in mind we are talking about a Jazz team that just laid it all on the line Sunday in LA to close out the Clippers on the road in Game 7. Getting only 1 day to rest and get focused on the Warriors isn't enough time. I think this gets ugly in a hurry. Take Golden State!

4* Raptors/Cavs Over/Under Total No Brainer on OVER

I just don't trust the Cavaliers defense right now. They allowed 108.8 ppg in their opening series against the Pacers and face an even more potent offense here in Toronto. The Raptors didn't put up big numbers offensively in their first series against the Bucks, but that was because of how long and talented Milwaukee is on the defensive side of the ball. Cleveland has a lot more holes defensively, plus they like to play at a much faster tempo and shoot a ton of 3's. While the Cavs defense struggled, the offense was on point and I look for a high-scoring game here with both teams being well-rested. These two combined for only 181 point sin their last meeting, but that was the regular season finale where several starters didn't play. The previous two games between these two teams saw them combine for 138 and 128 points. Take the OVER!

5* Raptors/Cavs Vegas Insider Top Play on Raptors +

I know Cleveland has had over a week off since they swept the Pacers, but I think that rest actually hurts them. While the Cavs swept Indiana, they were far from dominant in the series. In fact, Cleveland's largest win in the series was 6-points. Keep in mind that this is a team that really struggled down the stretch. I still think there's major concerns with their defense, which allowed the Pacers to score 100+ in all 4 games. Toronto didn't look great early on against a talented young Bucks team, but they closed out Milwaukee with 3 straight wins and I think they matchup really well with Cleveland. While the Cavs went 3-1 in the regular season and rested their stars in the only loss, all 3 of Cleveland's wins came by 4-poitns or less. I wouldn't be shocked if the Raptors won this game outright. Take Toronto!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Clippers -

It's been well documented that the home team has the advantage in Game 7 and going back to the 2002-03 season, the home team has gone 28-16 (64%) against the spread when the series reaches the winner take all stage. I know the Clippers are without one of their stars in Blake Griffin, but as long as they have a healthy Chris Paul they are going to be a top level team. LA avoided elimination on the road in Game 6 and did so by shooting an impressive 49% from the field. Everyone loves to talk about Utah's defense, but the Clippers have held the Jazz to 42% or worse from the field in each of the last two games. Take Los Angeles!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Hawks - 

The home team has won all 5 games in this series and I don't see that trend coming to an end tonight. Atlanta won both Game 3 and Game 4 by double-digits at home and could have easily won all 3 games in Washington. I just think the Wizards are getting way to much respect here with the Hawks basically at a pick'em with the line less than 3 points. Atlanta did cover in a loss in Game 5 and that's worth noting, as Washington is a mere 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games after failing to cover the number in their last game. Hawks are 5-0 ATS last 5 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 off a SU win. Take Atlanta!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Bucks -

I like the value here with Milwaukee as a short home favorite against the Raptors. The Bucks are facing elimination here and while they struggled to keep in close in Game 5 at Toronto, Milwaukee has proven they can hold their own against these Raptors and I look for them to not only win here but to do so in blowout fashion. Toronto simply shot lights out in Game 5, as they finished the game 57.7% from the field. I look for those shooting numbers to go way down on the road against a good Bucks defense that is going to feed off the energy of the home fans. Bucks are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 home games after losing 2 of their last 3 and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points. Take Milwaukee!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Bulls +

I know Chicago just dropped both games at home without Rondo, but I still think the value is with the Bulls in Game 5. While Rondo won't return, I think Chicago found something that worked without him in game 4 with Isaiah Canaan and letting Butler take over more responsibility at the point. The Bulls also shot the ball poorly from long distance in both games at home and I look for them to connect on a few more with an offense that works. I also think Boston relies too much on Thomas to carry the load and I believe he's got to play exceptional for the Celtics to win here in a blowout. Bulls are 11-3 ATS this season as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points, while Boston is a mere 5-14 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Chicago!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Top Play on Clippers -

I really like the value here with Los Angeles as a short home favorite. Note that I cashed in on the Jazz in Game 4. Even without Blake Griffin, I still think Los Angeles has enough talent to win at home over a team like Utah. As long as the Clippers have a healthy Chris Paul, they will be a difficult out. Utah just isn't the same team on the road and let's also not forget Gordon Hayward is likely playing here at less than 100%. He's the one guy Utah needs to play well to win on the road. Los Angeles is 34-19 ATS in their last 53 when revenging a loss where they allowed 100 or more points and the Jazz are 3-11 ATS this season when listed as a road dog of 6 points or less. Take Los Angeles!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Hawks -

I really like the value here with Atlanta at basically a pick'em at home. This is one of those series where I wouldn't be surprised if it went the distance with the home team winning every game. Washington just isn't the same team on the road as they are at home and Atlanta isn't getting near enough respect here. The Hawks won Game 3 116-98 and dominated from the start with a 38-20 first quarter. Let's not forget Atlanta played extremely well in both losses in Washington and could have easily won both of those games. I also like the adjustments the Hawks have put in play as the series has progressed. Wizards are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a loss and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after they failed to cover. Take Atlanta!

5* NBA Western Conference Play of the Month on Jazz -

I really like the value here with Utah at basically a pick'em at home with what feels like their season on the line. The Jazz have lost the last two after stealing Game 1 on the road. They shouldn't have lost Game 3 at home, as they led by 13 after the 1st quarter and still had the lead going into the 4th. As most of you know, that win came at a cost for the Clippers. Blake Griffin suffered what they originally thought to be a minor injury, but he's out for the playoffs.

It's not so much that I don't think the Clippers feel they can't win this series without Griffin, but the undeniable feeling that they have to have when it comes to their chances of getting past the Warriors in the next round. With the win in Game 3 LA got back home court advantage and that only adds to this being such a big letdown spot for the Clippers and such a massive game for the Jazz. Take Utah!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors/Bucks UNDER

I was all over the UNDER in Game 3 (1st Rd Total of the Month) and I'm sticking with it for Game 4. I expected a much slower paced game when the series shifted to Milwaukee in Game 3 and see no reason to think Game 4 is all the sudden going to be a shootout. The Bucks have shown they matchup well with the Raptors, who just can't get comfortable with the size of Milwaukee.

On the flip side of this, Toronto's back is against the wall, as they certainly don't want to fall behind 3-1 in the series. Look for an all out effort here from the Raptors on the defensive side of the ball. At the same time, we can expect some regression from Milwaukee's offense, which shot a ridiculous 53% from the field and 52% behind the 3-point line. As for the Bucks, I don't see them not bringing it as well, as they know all their hard work is for nothing if they let Toronto win here and take back the home court advantage. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs NO LIMIT Top Play on Celtics

I was leaning towards taking Boston prior to the news that Rondo was going to be out for the Bulls, but that only strengthens this selection. Rondo might not be considered an elite player anymore, but he was playing like one in this series and is someone who is known for taking his game to another level in the postseason. Not having him on the floor is going to make it difficult for Chicago to get into a flow offensively. It will be a lot more of Butler and Wade playing 1-on-1.

At the same time, we are going to get everything the Celtics have to offer, as they know they can't afford to go down 3-0, especially with Chicago missing such a key player. Boston just wasn't themselves in the first two games and a lot of that was the unfortunate timing passing of Thomas' sister. I expect a much more focused Celtics team to take the floor and for them to win this one comfortably. Take Boston!

5* NBA Playoffs (1st Rd) TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Raptors/Bucks UNDER

I really like the value here with the UNDER in Game 3 between the Raptors and Bucks. These two combined for just 180 points in Milwaukee's 97-83 win. They would go for 206 in Toronto's 106-100 victory in Game 2. With the series shifting to Milwaukee and the Bucks clearly better off with a slower pace, I look for them to dictate the tempo. This is also a huge game in the series, as both teams will be desperate for that 2-1 series lead. UNDER is 6-1 in the Raptors last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record and 16-5 in their last 21 road games overall. UNDER is 16-4 in the Bucks last 20 when facing an opponent that scored 100+ in their last game, 5-1-1 in their last 7 overall and 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Thunder +

I really like the value here with OKC as a big dog in Game 2 of this series. The Thunder lost Game 1 by a final of 87-118, despite only trailing by 5-points at the half. Just about everything that could go wrong in the 2nd half did. Not to mention Westbrook had an off night. I look for Westbrook to bounce back in a big way and for the Thunder as a team to make the proper adjustments to not only allow them to keep this game close, but potentially win outright. Take Oklahoma City!

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Wizards -

I just don't think the Wizards are getting the respect they deserve at home against a team like Atlanta. Washington had one of the best home court advantages in the league this season, as they finished 30-11 at home during the regular season. Only the Spurs, Cavs and Warriors had fewer losses on their home floor. Washington won and covered in Game 1 and that was with them playing an awful 1st half. They figured out the Hawks defense in the 2nd half, scoring 69 points after intermission. I look for more of the same in Game 2 and wouldn't be surprised if the Wizards won this one going away. Take Washington!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Celtics -

I have all the confidence in the Celtics evening up the series at 1-1 on their home floor and doing so in convincing fashion. I was all over the Bulls in Game 1, as I just thought it was a tough spot for Boston and their star Isaiah Thomas. I also don't think the Celtics gave Chicago the respect they deserved. I expect to see a completely different Boston team, as they simply can't afford to go down 2-0 with the series shifting to Chicago for Game 3.

Thomas actually played better than I expected given the circumstances in Game 1, but the rest of the Celtics didn't show up. On the flip side, the Bulls got a career game out of Bobby Portis, who scored 19 points off the bench on 8 of 10 shooting. I look for the Celtics bench to be the deciding factor here as this one could get ugly in a hurry if the Bulls struggle to find their outside shot. Take Boston!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Raptors UNDER

These two teams combined for just 180 points in Game 1 with a total of 198. The books have adjusted big time for Game 2, but I don't think it's going to matter. These are two really good defensive teams that matchup well against the other. Toronto's defense improved big time when they added in Ibaka and Tucker, while the length of the Bucks really makes it hard for the opposition to get into any kind of rhythm.  I don't see either team getting 100 points and wouldn't be shocked to see a very similar combined score to Game 1. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Playoffs (1st Rd) GAME OF THE MONTH on Pacers +

I was on the Pacers in their near win in Game 1 and will gladly back them at basically the same price in Game 2. I think Cleveland is good enough to win the east, but I don't think they are going to just flip a switch and dominate like a lot of people are expecting. Indiana believes they can win this series after their near victory in the opener and I believe will be the more desperate team here. Keep in mind that James was sensational in Game 1, scoring 32 points with 13 assists and 6 rebounds, yet they almost lost. As I've said multiple times now, the addition of Lance Stephenson was huge for the Pacers. They have been a different team since he joined the roster. I'll take the points to play it safe, but I wouldn't be shocked to see this series at 1-1. Take Indiana!

5* Thunder/Rockets NBA Vegas Insider Top Play on Thunder +

This is the series everyone is talking about, as we have the two MVP front-runners facing off with Russell Westbrook and James Harden. Houston has the better overall record, but I think they are getting way too much respect here. OKC isn't good enough to win it all, but this is definitely a series they could pull off. As we saw last year, the physical play of the postseason fits a lot of the Thunder's players and these two teams played 3 games that were decided by 3-points or less. I also think we are going to see a better OKC team in the playoffs, as they no longer have to worry about Westbrook and getting triple-doubles. They can just go out and play. My big concern with Houston is their defense and that they rely so much on the outside shot. Not saying you can't win being a jump shooting team, you just don't get near as many good looks in the playoffs. Take Oklahoma City!

4* Bulls/Celtics NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Bulls +

I like the value here with Chicago as a decently priced road dog in the series opener. We saw 3 of the 4 road teams cover yesterday, with two winning outright. The Bulls caught a big break with the Cavs blowing the No. 1 seed and I don't think it's out of the question they can win this series. Chicago really played well down the stretch and have been in playoff mode for weeks now trying to get to and hold on to that final playoff spot in the east. This is also a team that played it's best against the elite teams. Jimmy Butler of the Bulls has already made it clear he wants to guard Isaiah Thomas and I believe he's capable of slowing him down. Outside of Thomas the Celtics have a bunch of quality role players and I believe he's got to play great for them to make it far. I also think we are going to see a different Wade and Rondo for the Bulls, as the two veterans know how to take their game to the next level in the playoffs. Take Chicago!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Clippers -

A lot of people forget how good the Clippers were playing early in the year before they had to deal with some big time injuries to their star players. Los Angeles got healthy when it matters the most and started to look more and more like that team we saw in October and November down the stretch. Note they won their final 7 games to overtake the Jazz for the No. 4 spot. As much as I love this Utah team, I think the playoffs could prove to be a problem for them. More than anything, I see this as one of those series where the home team has the big edge and I also think the Clippers are the more talented team. Take Los Angeles!

4* NBA Playoffs Over/Under Total Annihilator on Grizzlies/Spurs UNDER

The playoffs bring a whole different intensity and while we don't see the UNDER cashing regularly right out of the gate, I think this series is one that is going to be an offensive struggle for both sides. Memphis isn't as good defensively as they have been in the past, but they were 6th overall in defensive efficiency this season. The Spurs on the other hand were the best in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Factor in that both of these teams value possession of the ball and rank in the bottom 5 in pace, I think both teams will struggle to reach 90 points. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors -

Cleveland has made it pretty clear that they have no interest in playing out the regular season with their starters, even though the No. 1 seed is technically still in play. The Cavs will not have the services of LeBron James and expect some of other stars to sit out or have their minutes greatly restricted. Toronto doesn't have anything to play for, but they at least have the majority of their starts in play. Raptors have been a money maker against the top level teams like Cleveland, as they are 9-1 ATS this season when facing a team that's won between 60%-70% of their games. Take Toronto!

4* NBA Situational ATS No Brainer on Mavs +

I know the Mavericks come into this game having lost 4 straight and 8 of 9 overall. Most will just assume they are tanking, but the schedule hasn't been great. With this being their final home game of the season and a big crowed expected with their honoring of Tony Romo, I expect Dallas to show up here and try to give their fans a victory. That's all it should take to not only win this game but to do so in blowout fashion. This is an awful spot for the Nuggets, who were just eliminated from playoff contention in their last game, which was the ridiculous game by Westbrook, where he hit the game-winner in the final seconds. Keep in mind this is a team that spent a good chunk of the season in the No. 8 spot and thought they were headed to the postseason. I don't see them being excited to play either of their final two games on the schedule, but if they were it would be tomorrow's rematch against OKC. Take Dallas!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Bucks -

I really like the value here with the Bucks at home in this spot. Milwaukee has clinched a playoff spot, but are still fighting for seeding. On the flip side of this, the Hornets attempt for a late season push to make the playoffs has come up short. They were just officially eliminated with their most recent loss at home to the Celtics. It's one thing to close out the season strong when you have been out of the playoff race for quite some time. It's extremely difficult for a team like Charlotte to get up for the final two games when they just had to come to terms with their season ending tomorrow in Atlanta. Their focus isn't on playing well, but the offseason. This could get ugly in a hurry. Take Milwaukee!

5* NBA Northwest Game of the Month on Nuggets -

I really like the value here with Denver at home against the Thunder. While Oklahoma City is locked into the No.6 seed and just playing for Westbrook to get one more triple-double, this is basically a playoff game for the Nuggets. Denver is currently 1.5-games back of the Blazers for the 8th and final spot and need to win this game to stay alive. It's also worth noting that Denver is not an easy place to play with tired legs and the Thunder figure to be a bit fatigued playing their 3rd straight away from home. Last time out OKC allowed the Suns to shoot 51.8% in a 21-point loss and the Nuggets come in having shot 50% or better from the field in 4 of their last 5 games. Take Denver!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Bucks -

I really like this spot for Milwaukee. The Bucks have hit a bit of a bump in the road and are still trying to clinch a playoff spot, though they are currently 6th in the standings. This is a game they simply can't afford to lose and with the way the 76ers have been playing, they should be able to not only win, but win comfortably. Philadelphia has raised the white flag on the season after an impressive turnaround this year. The 76ers have basically all of their key players out for the season and simply don't have the talent left to be competitive. Philly has lost their last 5 games with the last 4 all by 8 or more, including an ugly 118-141 loss at home to the Nets. Take Milwaukee!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Hawks +

I think we are getting some great value here with Atlanta as a double-digit dog against the Cavaliers. I believe we are seeing an inflated line here with Cleveland having covered 3 of their last 4 and fresh off a dominant showing a 114-91 win at Boston on Wednesday. The Cavs played it off as if it was another game, but they clearly got up for that contest. I'm expecting a bit of a letdown here, as they are sitting pretty good with the No. 1 seed.

The Hawks are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but don't have the luxury of taking a night off right now. While Atlanta is currently 5th in the east standings, they are just 2-games ahead of 9th place Miami with 4 to play. It's also worth noting that the Hawks have played Cleveland well this season. They are 1-1 with a win at Cleveland and their loss coming by just 5-points at home. Take Atlanta!

5* NBA Central Division Game of the Month on Pacers -

The addition of Lance Stephenson might not seem like much for the Pacers, but I think it's just what they needed to secure one of the final spots in the east playoff race. Stephenson gives this team a physical edge and constant energy that they were lacking. Indiana comes in off a comfortable 108-90 home win over the Raptors and I look for a similar outcome here against the Bucks. Milwaukee just lost 79-110 at OKC and are now just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. I believe a big part of their struggles is the absence of rookie point guard Malcolm Brogdon. The other big thing here is that the Pacers play like an elite team at home, where they are 27-12 on the season. Pacers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games with a total of 200 to 209.5 and 25-13 in their last 38 home games when revenging a road loss. Take Indiana!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Nuggets +

I really like the value here with Denver as a near double-digit dog against the Rockets. The Nuggets can move into a tie with the Blazers for the 8th and final playoff spot in the west and they have to believe they can overtake Portland after they lost a big piece in Jusuf Nurkic. Houston is simply coasting into the postseason, as they are locked into the No. 3 seed in the west. While I expect the starters to play for the Rockets, there's just nothing to get motivated for in this one and I think there's going to be a minutes restriction on all the key rotation players. Take Denver! 

5* NBA Eastern Conference Vegas Insider Top Play on Magic +

I like the value here with Orlando as a near double-digit dog against the Cavaliers. Cleveland comes in off a thrilling 135-130 double-overtime win at home against the Pacers on Sunday. LeBron played 52 minutes and the other 4 starters all had 37 or more with 3 eclipsing 40 minutes. I believe this game against the Magic becomes a massive letdown spot for the Cavs with a massive road game on deck tomorrow night in Boston. I'm not saying the Magic win this game, but I don't see the kind of effort here from Cleveland to make this a blowout. It's also worth noting that Orlando has continued to play hard down the stretch. I would expect them to show up against the defending champs. Cavs are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 after playing their last 2 at home and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 off a game where they won but failed to cover as a favorite. Take Orlando!

5* N Carolina/Gonzaga National Title NO LIMIT Top Play on North Carolina -

The Tar Heels have burned me in each of their last two games, where they were in prime position to cover and failed to do so. I'm not jumping off the bandwagon now. I pick North Carolina to win it all when the bracket came out, as I believed they were the most talented team in the field of 68. That's still the case and while Gonzaga has proved me wrong, let's not overlook the path for the Bulldogs to the title game. The best team they faced in terms of seeding was No. 4 West Virginia and they arguably should have lost that game. Gonzaga has great size down low and there bigs do a really good job of passing out of double-teams. North Carolina has elite size and won't have to help on the bigs, which I believe is going to make things really difficult for Gonzaga's offense. Take North Carolina!

4* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Wizards +

I really like the value here with Washington as a big road dog against the Warriors. Golden State has all but clinched the No. 1 seed in the west (3.5 games up on Spurs with 6 to play). There's just not a lot incentive for the Warriors to lay it all on the line in these final games to close out the season. I just don't see them blowing out a Wizards team that is fighting for position in the east. Washington is currently tied with Toronto for the No. 3 seed, 2.5 games back of Boston at No. 2 and 3-games back of Cleveland at No. 1. I wouldn't be shocked if the Wizards won this game outright. Warriors are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against the Eastern Conference. Take Washington!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Mavs/Bucks UNDER

Milwaukee should have no problem keeping the Mavericks offense in check and keeping this well below the mark set by the books. Dallas has been eliminated from playoff contention and aren't going to be look to push the tempo here and just won't have that same edge to their play. That's a problem for a team that has scored fewer than 98 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Milwaukee still hasn't clinched a playoff spot and are going to bring the defensive intensity in this one and the Bucks have been playing much better defensively during their big late season run. As for Milwaukee's offense, they aren't overly explosive and will likely be without point guard Malcolm Brogdon, who isn't getting near enough talk about being Rookie of the Year. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Late Night Total No Brainer on Suns/Blazers OVER

I really like the value here with the total in Saturday's NBA matchup between the Suns and Blazers. Portland averages 110.3 ppg at home and Phoenix gives up 113.7 ppg on the road. On the flip side of this, the Blazers allow 109 ppg and the Suns average 107.1 ppg. Both these teams like to get up and down the floor and play at a fast pace. Last time out the Suns combined for 242 points in a 118-124 loss to the Clippers. Portland combined for 224 in a win over the Rockets and the game before combined for 235 with the Nuggets. It's also worth noting that Phoenix has allowed 120 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games. Take the OVER!

5* Final Four Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on North Carolina -

I really like the value here with the Tar Heels, as I think they should be a much bigger favorite against the Ducks. North Carolina was just in the title game last year and the ability to fall back on that experience of the Final Four is going to pay off in a big way this time around. Not to mention the Tar Heels are the most talented team left in the field. Oregon was impressive in wins over Michigan and Kansas last weekend, but both of those teams were great matchups for the Ducks. The Wolverines and Jayhawks are both guard oriented. North Carolina has great guards, but their strength is their size and talent inside. I believe it's going to be too much for the Ducks to overcome in this one. Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 against the Pac-12 and 21-7-3 ATS in their last 31 neutral site games as a favorite. Take North Carolina!

4* Final Four Over/Under Total Annihilator on S Carolina/Gonzaga UNDER

I'm expecting both offenses to struggle to find a rhythm in this one and for this game to finish well below mark the books have set. There's been plenty of talk about South Carolina's defense and rightfully so, but Gonzaga is every bit as good on the defensive side of the ball as the Gamecocks. The Bulldogs have been especially strong on the defensive side of the ball in the tournament. They held South Dakota State to 31%, Northwestern to 41%, West Virginia to 27% and Xavier to 36%. The last two opponents Gonzaga has held under 60 points and I look for them to do the same against South Carolina. UNDER is 18-8 in Gonzaga's last 26 non-conference games and 19-6 in the Gamecocks last 25 neutral court games with a total of 130 to 139.5. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Spurs/Thunder UNDER

I think the books have set the total way too high for tonight's big matchup between the Spurs and Thunder on ESPN. Oklahoma City has went UNDER the total in 5 of their last 6, while the Spurs have gone UNDER in 3 of their last 5. These two teams have played twice this season and both times have finished with 202 or fewer points. I believe we could see an even lower-scoring game than normal, as both of these teams are in a bit of a flat spot. Spurs are coming off back-to-back games against the Cavs and Warriors, while the Thunder are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights off a couple of grueling road games at Dallas and Orlando where they had to make big comebacks in the 4th quarter. UNDER is 32-17 in the Spurs last 49 as a road favorite of 6 or less and 31-17 in Thunder's last 48 as an underdog.

4* NBA Situational Undervalued Underdog on Nuggets +

Denver is showing some great value here as a short road dog against the Hornets. The Nuggets have lost their last two games, but I still trust this team a lot more than I do Charlotte, who I'm not sure truly believes they are still in the mix for a playoff spot. While they are only 3-games back, they have just 7 games left and have to jump two teams just to get to the 8th spot. Prior to the 2-game skid Denver had been playing their best basketball and I just think they are clearly the more talented team in this one. It's also important to note that Charlotte is a tired team right now and they have struggled in this spot. The Hornets are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Nuggets on the other hand are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 off a SU loss, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs the east and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Take Denver!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Raptors -

I really like the value here with Toronto at home against the Pacers. The Raptors laid an egg last time out in a 106-110 home loss to the Hornets and I believe it has some people doubting them going into this game against Indiana. Prior to that loss Toronto had won 6 straight and were playing their best basketball since losing Lowry. I look for the Raptors to bounce back in a big way here, as they fight for the No. 3 spot in the east. I know the Pacers have a lot to play for as well, but they are a horrible road team and dealing with some injuries right now. Keep in mind these two teams played in Toronto recently on 3/19 and Toronto won 116-91. Indiana is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record and Raptors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a SU loss. Take Toronto!

5* NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Blazers +

I really like the value here with Portland as a home dog against the Rockets in a nationally televised game on TNT. Houston comes into this game off a 106-113 loss at home to the Warriors, which was a game they definitely wanted to win. With a rematch on deck at Golden State tomorrow, I just don't see Houston being all that interested in this game. Keep in mind the Rockets are all but locked into the No. 3 seed in the west. There's a chance that Houston could rest some players or limit their minutes. Portland on the other hand is in a battle for the No. 8 spot in the west, which they currently hold a 1-game lead over the Nuggets. Most importantly the Trail Blazers are playing their best basketball of the season. They have won 4 straight and 12-3 in their last 15 overall. Take Portland!

4* NIT Championship Game Vegas Insider on UNDER

It's hard to predict what teams are going to show up early in the NIT, but once you get the semifinals at Madison Square Garden, teams are going to show up and lay everything they have on the line. I look for defense to dominate in the championship game between the Yellow Jackets and Horned Frogs. Georgia Tech is an elite defensive team, who is extremely limited offensively, which is exactly what you want when backing the UNDER. TCU is no defensive slouch either and should have no problem keep the Yellow Jackets offense in check. I also think both offenses under perform given the stakes of this being the title game. Both teams played their semifinal game on Tuesday and the UNDER is 11-2 in the Yellow Jackets last 13 when playing with 1 or less days of rest. UNDER is also 8-1 in the Horned Frogs last 9 road games after 3 or more consecutive wins. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Clippers -

Washington just clinched their first division title in almost 40 years with last night's 119-108 win over the Lakers. I look for a bit of a letdown here against the Clippers in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road. While the Wizards are primed for a flat performance, Los Angeles can't afford to be losing at home if they want to jump past the Jazz for the No. 4 spot in the west. Plenty of motivation here for the Clippers, who suffered an embarrassing home loss to the Kings last time out and will be out for revenge from a 7-point loss at Washington earlier this season. While the loss to Sacramento says otherwise, I believe the Clippers are close to returning to the form that we saw them open the season. Take Los Angeles!

4* Warriors/Spurs NBA ATS Heavy Hitter on Spurs -

I really like the value here with San Antonio laying a relatively short number at home against the Warriors. Golden State has been playing better of late without Durant, but are coming off a huge game last night at Houston and I just don't think they are going to have what it takes to win on the road against a Spurs team that wants to send a message to the Warriors that they aren't just going to take the west without a fight. San Antonio is a dominant 29-7 at home this season and have gone 36-4 over the last 40 meetings at home against the Warriors. Golden State is just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 when playing on 0 days of rest and 6-16 ATS in their last 22 when playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take San Antonio!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Hawks -

I really like the value here with the Hawks at basically a pick'em on the road against the 76ers. Atlanta snapped a 7-game losing streak with a win at home over the Suns last night and I look for them to carry over that momentum against Philadelphia. The 76ers also won last night at Brooklyn, but are playing short-handed right now and I look for them to struggle to bring the intensity needed to win here on no rest. Note that these two teams have played 3 times this season and all 3 have been blowout wins for the Hawks. Atlanta won 104-72 at Philadelphia on 10/29, 117-96 at home on 11/12 and 110-93 at home on 1/21. Hawks are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games after losing 2 of their last 3 games and 13-5 in their last 18 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take Atlanta!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Rockets -

I believe the books are tipping their hand here with listing Houston as the favorite and I couldn't agree more. The Rockets are a legit threat to Golden State in the west, at least until the Warriors get back Durant and he starts playing at the same level as he was before his injury. Keep in mind that Houston already won at Golden State earlier this year 132-127 in 2OT and the Warriors had all their pieces in play for that one. As much as Golden State would like to win this one, I think they are going to have a difficult time not looking ahead to tomorrow's huge showdown at San Antonio. A game they need to win to make sure they get the No. 1 seed in the west. Warriors are also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. Take Houston!

4* NBA Over/Under Total No Brainer on Bucks/Hornets UNDER

I really like the value here with the total, as the books have set the bar too high for this one. This is a huge game for both of these teams and I believe it's going to be a lot like a playoff atmosphere. Milwaukee is tied for 5th in the east, but are just 2.5-games from missing the postseason completely. One of the teams trying to sneak into the mix is the Hornets, who are 2-games back of 8th place Miami. Not to mention that Milwaukee has really been playing well defensively over the last month and Charlotte is a team that can lock down defensively at home when they need to. UNDER is 8-1 in the Hornets last 9 home games in the 2nd half of the season against a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER!

5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Pacers -

I really like the value here with Indiana as a relatively short home favorite against the Timberwolves. The Pacers are simply a different team at home than they are on the road. Indiana is 26-11 at home compared to 11-25 on the road. They simply aren't getting enough respect here at home against a struggling Minnesota team that has lost 6 straight and are just 10-25 on the road this season. Part of the problem for the Timberwolves is reality is setting in that they are going to miss out on the playoffs, which is a big disappointment. Indiana is currently 7th in the east, but are just 2.5 games from 9th. The Pacers can't afford to lose here and I look for a big time effort from them in this one. Take Indiana!

5* NBA Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Mavs +

Dallas is showing some great value here as a short home dog against the Thunder. Most are going to just expect Oklahoma City to bounce back after yesterday's loss to the Rockets, but I don't think that's going to be the case. The Thunder have to be a bit gassed here after yesterday's up-tempo matchup with Houston, which saw a combined 262 points scored. Dallas is the much more rested team, as they are in the midst of a 4-game homestand and haven't played back-to-back games since playing on 3/10 and 3/11. Dallas is also a much better team at home and the Thunder are not nearly as good on the road, where they are just 14-21 this season. Mavs are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 after losing 2 of their last 3 games and 13-4 in their last 17 at home with a total of 200 to 209.5. Take Dallas!

4* NBA Situational ATS Annihilator on Nuggets -

Denver is showing great value here as a short favorite at home against the Pelicans. The Nuggets have really been playing well of late and because they aren't a huge public team, the books are being slow to adjust their lines. Until the public gets on board with Denver, they should continue to be a great bet on team down the stretch. The Nuggets come in having won 6 of their last 8 with the only two losses coming to the Rockets by a combined 5 points. New Orleans is starting to figure out how to play with Cousins, but it's still a work in progress and I just don't trust them on the road right now. Take Denver!