4* NBA Heavy Hitter Game of the Month on Clippers -

It's been a less than impressive start for the Clippers, who come in just 3-2 after their first 5 games. They barely scraped by with wins at home against both the Thunder and Jazz and only won by 7 on the road against the Lakers. In their last game they were embarrassed at Golden State 104-121 in a nationally televised game.

I believe that combined with their lackluster start has the Clippers showing incredible value as a mere 4-point home favorite against the Trail Blazers. Portland is a quality team, but are just 3-2 with 4 of their first 5 coming at home. They lost their lone road game 94-103 at Sacramento and I'm expecting them to lose by double-digits in this spot.

The home team has won each of the last 6 meetings and all 3 of the Clippers wins at home in this stretch have come by at least 5 points. Adding to this is the fact that LA is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss by more than 10 points.

There's a big time system in favor of the Clippers based on how they have started the season. Teams who are allowing opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and are averaging 48 or less rebounds/game are a dominant 22-4 ATS since 1996. That's a 85% system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Year on Cavaliers -

I believe this is the perfect spot to jump on the Cavaliers, who are a surprising 1-3 to start the season. It's been a big wake-up call for a lot of these Cleveland players, who simply thought adding LeBron James was going to make them the best team in the league. I'm expecting these guys to come together and give their best effort of the season tonight against the Nuggets.

Denver is the perfect opponent for the Cavaliers to get back on track. The Nuggets come in having lost 3 straight, including a 11-point loss to a depleted Thunder team and back-to-back defeats against the Kings. For Denver to lose at home to Sacramento on Monday and turn around and play them again on Wednesday and get embarrassed by 22-points really says a lot about this team. That's typically a spot where a team fights back and the Nuggets laid down.

Two of the biggest problems for Cleveland has been their lack of sharing the basketball offensively and a lack of effort defensively. The Cavaliers had just 6 assists in their loss to Utah. Six! It's amazing that they were as close as they were. It just goes to show how much talent they have. Luckily both of these things can be changed. I look for Kyrie Irving to be more of a facilitator and the defensive intensity to pick up in a nationally televised game on ESPN. Take the Cavaliers!

3* Mavericks/Trail Blazers TNT Late Night Bailout on Trail Blazers -

The Trail Blazers are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Mavericks. Portland has one of the best homecourt advantages in the league and will be coming into this game extremely confident off that 19-point blowout win at home over the Cavaliers on Tuesday. Portland lost just 10 games all of last season at home, making them a must play here as a mere 2-point favorite.

Dallas has got off to an impressive start offensively, as they connected on 52.4% of their attempts through their first 4 games. Sustaining that offense won't be easy on the road, especially against a quality defensive team like Portland. The Trail Blazers are holding opponents to just 40.6% shooting through their first 4 games and come in ranked 6th in defensive efficiency.

It's also worth noting that the Mavericks are giving up 102.5 ppg and allowing opponents to shoot 47.2% from the field on the road. The Trail Blazers have one of the more explosive offenses in the league and should only get better now that Damian Lillard looks to be back to 100% after struggling in his first 3 games battling an abdominal strain. Take Portland!

3* NBA Late Night ATS Bailout on Nuggets +

Denver is showing great value here as an underdog against the Kings. The Nuggets are in a huge revenge spot, as this is a rematch of Monday's game in Denver. The Kings won that game 110-105. When two teams face off in back-to-back games, the loser of the first matchup is clearly going to be the more motivated squad in the second meeting. Sitting at 3-1 with wins over the Trail Blazers and Clippers prior to their win against the Nuggets, this is a big letdown spot for Sacramento, especially when you factor in that it's their 3rd game in 4 days.

The Kings are just 7-19 ATS over the last 3 seasons in home games off 1 or more consecutive wins and only 10-21 in their last 31 home games against a team with a losing record. Adding to this is that Denver is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 following a SU loss.

There's also a key system in play telling us to fade the Kings. Home favorites off 2 straight wins by 6 points or less against an opponent off a game where both teams scored 105 or more points are just 25-58 ATS since 1996. That's a 70% system in favor of the Nuggets. Take Denver!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Wizards +

The Knicks come into this game off back-to-back impressive wins. They went on the road and beat Cleveland 95-90 and were able to hold on for a 96-93 win at home against Charlotte. Yet they are just a 1.5-point home favorite. The books have made it pretty clear that they don't trust this team, and neither do I right now. New York lacks depth and talent and are still playing without starting point guard Jose Calderon and key reserve Andrea Bargnani.

Washington is hands down the better team and I look for them to have their way with the Knicks, similar to what we saw in New York's opening loss to Chicago, where they trailed by 30 points. It's also worth noting that the Knicks have barely won each of their last two games, while shooting over 50% from the field. That's not a good sign of things to come, as they rely on too many jump shots to continue to hit at that high of a rate.

Washington is 30-18 ATS in their last 48 games when listed as an underdog and 19-9 ATS in their last 28 road games when listed as a dog of 6 or less points.

There's a strong system in play suggesting just that. Home teams who have made 50% or more of their attempts in 2 straight games that are shooting 45.5% - 47.5% on the season against an opponent that is allowing opponents to shoot 45.5% - 47.5% are just 57-100 ATS since 1996. That's a 64% system in favor of the Wizards. Take Washington!

3* Celtics/Mavericks NBA Main Event on Celtics +

The Celtics are showing great value here getting 9.5 points against the Mavericks. While Boston lost 90-104 at Houston in their last contest, they had an awful night shooting. The Celtics were just 37.8% from the field and a mere 1-25 (4.0%) from behind the 3-point line. To only lose by 14-points with that kind of shooting is a good sign that this team is capable of keeping it within single digits against the Mavericks. Dallas has allowed each of their first 3 opponents to eclipse the 100-point mark.

A big reason the Celtics were able to keep it somewhat close against the Rockets is their defense. Boston held Houston to just 42.1% shooting. Brad Stevens has this team playing hard and we saw what they were capable of in their 121-105 win at home over the Nets in the opener. I think this Celtics team is flying under the radar and is going to be a profitable team to back early on in this spot. Dallas is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the Eastern Conference and 1-5 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Take Boston!

4* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Knicks -

The Knicks are showing great value as a small home favorite against the Bobcats, who find themselves playing on the road in a 2nd game of back-to-back set. Charlotte has not looked great in their first two games. They were fortunate to get a win at home against the Bucks in the opener and managed just 69 points in a loss last night to the Grizzlies. The Knicks got a huge win at Cleveland last Thursday and are going to come out extremely motivated after getting embarrassed by the Bulls in their home opener.

Charlotte is just 14-28 ATS in their last 42 games when playing on no rest, while the Knicks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games after an upset win as a road underdog and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games after shooting 50% on 3-point shots in their last contest. These trends combine to form a 74% (49-17) system in favor of the Knicks. Take New York!

4* Suns/Jazz NBA Western Conference Heavy Hitter on Jazz +

Utah is showing some nice value here as a home dog against the Suns. The Jazz are going to come out motivated after their 0-2 start, which has seen them lose to a couple of playoff teams from last year in Houston and Dallas.They were especially bad in their last game against Dallas, falling behind by as many as 30 points. When a team has that bad of a showing they almost always bounce back. I definitely like Utah to respond at home and get the win.

The Suns on the other hand are in a bit of a letdown spot. Phoenix has a quick turnaround after last night's big home win against the Spurs. The Suns really wanted that game last night versus San Antonio and I can't see them matching that intensity against Utah. The Jazz are 101-71 ATS in their last 172 home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games. Take Utah!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Kings +

The Kings are showing great value as a home underdog against the Trail Blazers. Sacramento ended up losing 77-95 to Golden State at home in the opener, but that was a more competitive game than the final score would indicate. The Kings actually had a lead late in the 3rd quarter. They simply committed too many turnovers and couldn't buy a basket. As a team they show just 30.8% from the field. Sacramento hasn't lost back-to-back home openers since 1997.

The Trail Blazers enter off a 106-89 home win over the Thunder. It looks like they dominated on paper, but they actually trailed Oklahoma City going into the 4th quarter and the Thunder are as unhealthy as any team in the league. Portland was better on the road last year than previous seasons, but this team is not the same away from home. It's going to be hard for them to win here going away, which is why I really like the value we are getting with the Kings, who wouldn't surprise me if they won outright.

Sacramento finished last year 9-2 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a double-digit home loss. Portland on the the other hand was just 2-6 ATS off a SU win by more than 10 points.

There's also a nice system in play suggesting a fade of the Trail Blazers. Favorites off a home win against a division rival are just 18-49 ATS on Friday nights over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Kings. Take Sacramento!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Pistons +

I love the value we are getting with Detroit as a 4.5-point dog against the Timberwolves. The Pistons should have covered last night in Denver, but managed just 16 points in the 4th quarter to lose by 10 as a 6.5-point dog. I don't see the offense struggling like that against the Timberwolves, who allowed 105 points to the Grizzlies last night. They let Memphis score at will inside as Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol combined for 57 points on 24 of 33 shooting.

Another big thing here is that I think the Pistons are a team that's going to be greatly improved in 2014-15 under Van Gundy, while the Timberwolves simply can't be as good as last year after losing a player of the caliber of Love. There's just not enough weapons offensively right now, especially with Kevin Martin sidelined with an ankle injury. I'll gladly take the points, but I'm expecting the Pistons to win this one outright.

While both teams are playing in the second game of back-to-back set, the Timberwolves really struggled in this spot last year. They were just 3-15 ATS over their last 18 when playing on 0 days of rest. It's also worth noting that Van Gundy has a history of getting his teams to respond off a double-digit loss. His teams are 60-36 ATS over their last 99 off a double-digit loss. These two trends combine to form a nice 66% (75-39) system in favor of the Pistons. Take Detroit!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Jazz +

I was wrong on the Lakers being able to keep up with the Rockets last night, but I'm not taking the bait on Houston as a mere -3.5 point road favorite against the Jazz. Utah can be a difficult place for opposing teams to play, especially early in the year when the home fans have new hope. The Jazz have a ton of young and talented players who are going to be extremely motivated to start their season against a playoff team from last year.

While the Rockets looked impressive on the road last night, they went just 21-20 on the road last year, compared to 33-8 at home. Unlike the Lakers, who had no answer inside for Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones, Utah has a more than capable frontcourt to slow them down in Derrick Favors and Enes Kantor.

What this play really comes down to is a big time system that has seen home teams who are playing their first game of the season against an opponent who is playing their second game of the season go 38-21-3 ATS. That's a 64% system in favor of the Jazz. Take Utah!

3* NBA Opening Night No Doubt ATS Rout on Lakers +

The Lakers are showing great value as a 6.5-point home dog against the Rockets. This is not the same Los Angeles team that won just 27 games last year. They might not have what it takes to make the playoffs in the loaded Western Conference, but they should be highly competitive, especially at home. Kobe Bryant has something to prove this year and all this team has heard is how they aren't going to be any good. This should have them coming out of the gate playing with a lot of energy and passion against a top team from last season.

I think a lot of people are underestimating the additions the Lakers made in the offseason. Not only do they get back Kobe, but they brought in Jeremy Lin to help at the point, drafted Julius Randle and signed underrated free agent power forward Carlos Boozer. Having Lin help this team understand the Rockets schemes should also help in this one. New head coach Bryan Scott has worked this team hard in the offseason and is making defense a priority, which I think could catch some teams off guard after last year when the Lakers finished 29th in the league in scoring defense (109.2 ppg).

Houston on the other hand was unable to improve their roster in the offseason. Most notably they weren't able to bring back Chandler Parsons, who I believe was the one player outside of Harden and Howard that they couldn't afford to lose. Parsons did it all for the Rockets, averaging 16.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.19 steals, on 47.2% shooting from the field and 37.0% from behind the arc.

I look for Los Angeles to not only keep this game close enough to cover, but I like their chances of winning outright. Take the Lakers!

4* NBA Finals Game 5 Vegas Insider on Heat +

*Analysis Will Be Posted Shortly*

4* Spurs/Heat Game 4 NBA Finals No Brainer on Miami -

The Heat didn't decide to show up to Game 3 on the defensive side of the ball until it was too late. Miami allowed San Antonio to score 41 in the 1st quarter and 71 in the first half. They would end up holding the Spurs to just 40 points in the 2nd half, but just didn't have enough gas in the tank to finish off the comeback.

That performance is not going to sit well with James and company and I look for Miami to come out and play like this is Game 7. Defensively I look for the Heat to play their best game of the series and offensively I believe this will be the game where Mario Chalmers wakes up and finally contributes meaningful minutes. Not to mention, James is going to be playing like a man possessed on both ends of the floor.

Even with their win in Game 3, San Antonio is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. That was the first home game the Heat have lost in the playoffs and Miami has done an amazing job of responding in this situation.

Miami is 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points and 7-1 (88%) ATS in their last 8 following a double-digit loss at home.Take the Heat!

4* NBA Finals Game 3 Vegas Insider on Heat -

The Heat took control of the series with a win in Game 2 and will be extremely motivated to maintain that edge with a win at home tonight. Had LeBron James not had to sit out the majority of the 4th quarter with cramps in Game 1, Miami could very well have a 2-0 advantage in this series. Just as I expected, James came out and delivered a huge performance in Game 2.

The Spurs have really struggled to keep James in check and defensively the Heat are giving San Antonio all kinds of trouble. In Game 1 Miami forced San Antonio into 22 turnovers and in Game 2 they limited the Spurs to just 44% shooting. I look for the Heat to be even stronger defensively in front of their home crowd and at the same time the role players for Miami should play better at home. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Heat won this one rather convincingly.

Miami is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record, while the Spurs are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and just 2-7 in their last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record. That's a 80% (20-5) system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami!

5* NBA Finals Vegas Insider on Heat +

The Heat were in prime position to win and cover in Game 1 before James had to exit due to cramping. The goods is that injury should be long gone by the time these two teams tip-off tonight. I look for James to come out and make a statement and for the Heat to even up the series at 1-1.

Miami ended up allowing the Spurs to score 110 points, but their defense really fell apart without James on the floor. One of the key things to notice is that the Heat forced San Antonio into 22 turnovers, which ended up in a lot of easy baskets in transition. I expect more of the same in Game, as Miami is going to do everything they can to even up the series at 1-1.

Miami is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss,  5-1 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100+ points and 23-9 in their last 34 games after a loss by 10+ points. That's a 76% (32-10) system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami!

5* NBA Finals Total of the Year on the UNDER

The books have set the total way too high for Game 1. Both teams understand the importance of each game and that's going to lead to max effort on the defensive end. Miami has the perimeter defense to make things difficult for the Spurs offensively and San Antonio is one of the better teams in the league when it comes to defending LeBron James. You also have to factor in the nerves that come with playing in the Finals and the long layoff from the conference finals will likely have both teams out of sync offensively early on.

If you look back at last year's Finals matchup between these two teams, they combined for just 180 points in Game 1. They didn't score more than 190 points in the series until Game 4. It's also worth noting that the total for Game 1 last year was just 190 points. In fact the highest total set for any game in the series was 191.5 points. The value is clearly on the under at 199.

The UNDER is 36-13 (73.5%) for road teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MIAMI) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games.

The UNDER is also 24-6 (80%) for all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game.Take the UNDER!

3* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on OVER

These two teams have finished under the total in each of the last 4 games in the series, despite the fact that at least one team has scored 100+ in every game. I look for a much more competitive game than what we have had to this point and I believe that creates a lot of value on the over.

San Antonio is averaging 106.2 ppg in the playoffs and the Thunder aren't far behind at 102.2 ppg. The Spurs appear to have figured out Oklahoma City's defense and you can bank on the Thunder being at their best offensively at home, where they are averaging 107.5 ppg on the season.

The OVER is 20-8 in the Spurs last 28 games after 3 or more consecutive games that finished under the total. That's a solid 71% system in play. Take the OVER 206.5!

5* Pacers/Heat NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Heat -

The Pacers put everything on the line to win Game 5 at home and I just don't see them being able to deliver a similar performance on the road. Miami understands how important it is to end the series on their home floor and not have to go back to Indiana for a Game 7. Considering how the Heat dominated both games at American Airlines Arena in Game 3 (99-87) and Game 4 (102-90), I don't have a problem laying the points.

Both of these teams are great on the defensive end, but the big difference is that the Heat have players who can score no matter who is defending them. Indiana on the other hand is limited offensively and I look for them to really struggle to get anything going with Miami 100% focused on the defensive side of the ball. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we had a similar outcome to last year's Game 7 in Miami in the Conference Finals, where the Heat destroyed Indiana 99-76.

Miami is 30-17 ATS in their last 47 games revenging a loss to an opponent, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Indiana on the other hand is just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games after a win by 6-points or less. That's a solid 68% (52-24) system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami!

3* Spurs/Thunder NBA Playoffs Main Event on Spurs -

As bad as the Spurs have looked in the last two games at Oklahoma City, I look for them to respond with a big time performance at home in Game 5. San Antonio is going to treat this as if it were a Game 7, as they don't want to go to Oklahoma City for Game 6 down 3-2.

The Spurs offense played about as poorly as they could in Games 3 and 4, shooting under 40% in both contests. I'm confident they aren't going to shoot better at home. Another key thing to factor in is that Oklahoma City invested a lot of energy to win the last two games and there's a good chance they won't be able to match the Spurs intensity tonight.

San Antonio is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games and 25-11-1 in their last 37 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.

There's also a strong system in play. Explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 154-84 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% system in favor of San Antonio. Take the Spurs!

3* Heat/Pacers NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Pacers +

Indiana's chances of winning the series doesn't look good, but I don't expect the Pacers to let their season come to an end at home. I fully expect Indiana to come out and play like they did in their 107-96 home win in Game 1. While the Pacers will be laying everything on the line to stay alive, Miami could find it difficult to match their intensity from the previous three games with a comfortable lead. The Heat could also be without two key role players, as both Ray Allen and Chris Anderson are both listed as questionable for Game 5.

The Pacers are 31-18 ATS in their last 49 games off a road loss, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss, and 4-1 in their last 5 after a SU defeat by more than 10 points.

There's a strong system in play, home teams where the line is +3 to -3, who are playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent - against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite are 69-37 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% system in favor of Indiana. Take the Pacers!

3* Spurs/Thunder NBA Playoffs Main Event on Thunder -

The Thunder got new life in the series with a 106-97 win at home in Game 3 and a big reason for that was return of Serge Ibaka. Not only did Ibaka's return provide an emotional lift for the rest of the team, he had a huge impact on the game with 15 points, 7 rebounds and 4 blocks.

The Spurs no longer got easy looks in the paint and as a result their offense was completely out of whack. San Antonio shot just 39.6% from the field. With Ibaka feeling fine and expected to play in Game 4, I think the Thunder are showing unbelievable value as a small home favorite. Keep in mind that Oklahoma City won all four regular season matchups with Ibaka on the floor.

San Antonio is just 2-7 in their last 9 games after a contest where they failed to cover the spread and are a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games in the playoffs. Oklahoma City on the other hand is 15-3 in their last 18 home games versus a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 32-18 in their last 50 home games with a total set between 200 and 209.5 points. That's a 64% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Pacers +

The Pacers got out to a 15-point lead early in Game 3, but weren't able to finish the job, as Miami rallied and ended up winning by a final of 99-87. Indiana is more than capable of winning on the road and evening up the series at 2-2 and I expect a much more complete effort in a crucial Game 4. Regardless if the Pacers win this game, they should have no problem keeping it within 6-points to cover the spread. If it wasn't for Ray Allen's 4 3-pointers in the 4th quarter of Game 3, Indiana would have easily covered the number.

I really like the balance that the Pacers have displayed offensively. Four different players scored in double-figures and four more had at least 6-points. Miami relies heavily on James and Wade, who combined for 49 points. No other Heat starter reached double figures. I look for the Indiana defense to turn it up a notch and really make things difficult on the Heat in Game 4.

Indiana is 31-17 ATS in their last 48 games off a road loss, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 after a game where they failed to cover the spread and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 following a SU loss of more than 10 points. That's a 69% (42-19) system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana!

5* Spurs/Thunder NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Thunder -

It's do or die for the Thunder and I look for them to get the job done at home with or without Ibaka. Just the fact that Ibaka is trying to fight through the pain to play, should serve as a huge emotional lift for the rest of the Thunder.

The big key here is that Oklahoma City will be playing at home and should get more out of their role players on the offensive side of the ball. I would also expect to see a better defensive effort than what the Thunder displayed in the first two games. Kevin Durant is also due for a big game and I look for him to deliver when his team needs him the most.

Keep in mind that the Thunder won both regular season matchups at home without much problem. They won by 8 in November and 12 in early April. Going back over the previous 3 seasons, Oklahoma City is 8-1 in their last 9 home games against the Spurs.

The Thunder are 18-8 in their last 26 home games revenging a loss, 13-4 in their last 17 after allowing 105+ in each of their last two games and 20-7 in their last 27 games after failing to cover the spread in 3 of their last 4. That's a 73% (51-19) system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Pacers +

I believe the books have overvalued the Heat big time at home in Game 3. Indiana poses a very difficult matchup for Miami and have to feel like they should be up 2-0. I just don't see enough separation between these two teams to expect the Heat to win here by 8+ points. It wouldn't come as a surprise at all if Indiana won this game straight up. Either way, I like them to cover the spread.

The Pacers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games revenging a loss at home, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after failing to cover the spread last time out. Miami on the other hand is just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home games after playing a game as a road favorite and just 6-18 in their last 24 home games after playing two straight on the road. That's a 77% system in favor of Indiana. Take the Pacers!

3* NBA Playoffs ATS Annihilator on Thunder +

The Thunder ended up losing Game 1 by 17-points, which wasn't a huge surprise given it was their first game without Ibaka. I look for Oklahoma City to make the proper adjustments for Game 2. I don't know that it will be enough for the win, but I like the value here getting 6-points. Keep in mind that the Thunder trailed the Spurs by just 7-points going into the 4th quarter.

Durant and Westbrook both played well in Game 1, combining for 53 points on 19 of 40 shooting. I look for an even bigger performance out of these two in what most would consider a must-win for OKC. I also expect a stronger defensive performance in Game 2. The Spurs did as they pleased in Game 1, shooting 57.5% from the floor (50 of 87) and 52.9% from behind the 3-point line (9-17). As good as San Antonio is offensively, it's going to be extremely difficult to match that level of efficiency in consecutive games.

Oklahoma City is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to cover the spread, 4-1 in their last 5 conference finals games and 4-1 in their last 5 road games. The Spurs on the other hand are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing 100+ points in their last game. That's a 82% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Pacers/Heat UNDER

While the Heat and Pacers combined to score 203 points and crush the total of 182 in Game 1, I'm not expecting that to keep up. It's not uncommon for the first game of a series to be high-scoring. Both teams shot better than 51% from the field in the first game, which won't hold up. Miami is only allowing 93.7 points in the playoffs and Indiana is only giving up 90.3 in the postseason.

With Miami desperately needing a win to fall behind 0-2 and Indiana looking to make sure they leave with the homecourt advantage in tact, I look for both teams to lay it all on the line defensively in this one. I wouldn't be surprised at all if both teams failed to reach 85 points.

Prior to the offensive explosion in Game 1, these two teams had scored fewer than 185 points in 7 of their 8 previous matchups, including each of the previous 3 at Indiana.

The UNDER is 30-17 in the Pacers last 47 games off a double-digit home win, 33-13 in their last 46 games with a total set between 180 and 189.5 and 45-27 in the Heat's last 72 road games when playing just their 2nd game in 5 days. That's a strong 65% system. Take the UNDER!

4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Spurs -

The Spurs may have lost all 4 meetings against Oklahoma City during the regular season, but that doesn't mean anything come the playoffs. Just look at what Miami did to Brooklyn after the Nets swept the season series. On top of that, the Thunder will be without Serge Ibaka, who is not only one of their best defensive players, but someone they really rely on offensively. There was already concern that Oklahoma City relied too much on Durant and Westbrook to win it all and now it's a major issue without Ibaka. In the 4 matchups against the Spurs during the regular season, Ibaka averaged 14 points, 11.5 rebounds, 4 blocks and 1.3 steals.

Not having him on the floor is going to make it that much easier on San Antonio defensively, as they can now focus all their attention on stopping the duo of Durant and Westbrook. At the same time, Ibaka's absence should open up things for the Spurs offense, as they should be able to get into the paint and score a lot more than they would have with him playing.

San Antonio is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs a team with a winning road record, 14-5 in their last 19 after a game where they covered the spread. We also see that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 119-72 since 1996. That's a 62% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio.

4* Heat/Pacers NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Indiana +

The Pacers had their struggles getting to this point, but none of that matters. All the chemistry concerns can be thrown out the window, Indiana hates the Heat and I look for them to do whatever it takes to win this series. I don't know if they will, but I definitely like them getting points at home in Game 1.

The Pacers are 38-10 on their home floor and when they have needed a win at home they have delivered. The home team has dominated this series when it comes to the spread. The visitor is just 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these two teams and the Heat are just 2-5 in their last 7 trips to Indiana. Another strong trend in play is that the Pacers are 31-19 ATS in their last 50 home games against 3-point shooting teams (36% or better) over the last 2 seasons. Take Indiana!

3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Thunder +

The Thunder stole back the momentum with a furious rally at home to win Game 5 and I look for them to carry that over and finish off the Clippers with a win tonight. Despite getting a split in the two previous games at Los Angeles in the series, Oklahoma City played extremely well and arguably should have won both games. The best part about this is we don't need the Thunder to win to profit. 5-points is a lot for two evenly matched teams, especially with their being a great chance Oklahoma City will win outright.

The Thunder are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team who has won more than 60% of their home games, 3-1-1 ATS following a game where they failed to cover the spread. Los Angeles is just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games against a team with a winning record, 2-6 in their last 8 home games against a team with a winning road record and 0-4 ATS after a came where they covered the spread. Add it up and that's a 79% (27-7) system in favor of Oklahoma City!

5* NBA Playoffs Game of the Year on Spurs -

The Trail Blazers may have kept the series going with a win at home in Game 4, but I strongly believe their season will come to an end tonight. As you would expect from a team with a 3-0 lead, the Spurs weren't able to match to the intensity of Portland. Knowing that there's a good chance the Clippers/Thunder series will be going to a Game 7, I look for San Antonio to be all business tonight, as their veterans could use the extra rest.

San Antonio dominated the first three games of this series, winning all three by at least 15 points and I expect a similar result tonight. The Spurs will be much more focused on the defensive end after losing Game 4 and their offensive execution should be back to what we saw in Game 1, 2 and 3.

The Spurs are 33-16 ATS off double-digit loss as a road favorite, while the Trail Blazers are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 road games off a win by double-digits. We also see that home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 118-72 ATS since 1996. That's a strong 62% long-term system in favor of the Spurs!

3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Thunder -

My money is on the Thunder to hold serve and cover the 5.5-point spread at home. If it wasn't for a meltdown in the 4th quarter of Game 4, Oklahoma City would have a commanding 3-1 lead. While I liked the Clippers coming into this series, the Thunder have clearly looked like the better team. Los Angeles had to use ever last ounce of energy they had to rally in Game 4 and I look for them to suffer a major letdown on the road tonight. Oklahoma City's defense has really made it difficult on the Clippers, they have held them to 45% or worse from the field since allowing them to shoot 55% in Game 1.

The Thunder are 23-11 ATS in their last 34 home games revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100+ points and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games off a loss by 3-points or less. We also see that underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games are just 53-86 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 62% system in favor of Oklahoma City!

4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Spurs -

The Trail Blazers have shown nothing in the first three games and I expect the Spurs to finish them off tonight in Portland. San Antonio has made it look easy to this point, as their offense is pretty much doing whatever they want against the Trail Blazers lackluster defense. At the same time, the Spurs are making both LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard work extremely hard on the offensive end. I believe the spirit of the Trail Blazers has been broken and while some teams could suffer a letdown up 3-0, San Antonio will be motivated to finish the series and get some much-needed rest before the Western Conference Finals.

Portland is just 2-12 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in 3 straight games, 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games after 3 or more consecutive losses and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games after trailing in their previous game by 15+ points at the half.

Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 48-22 ATS since 1996. That's a 69% system in favor of the Spurs.

3* NBA Playoffs Bailout Blowout on Wizards -

I like the Wizards to bounce back and even the series at home in Game 4. Washington couldn't play much worse than they did in Game 3. I still think the Wizards have a great shot at winning this series. Indiana has got back the homecourt advantage and I wouldn't be surprised if they came out flat and didn't play with that same intensity on the defensive end.

John Wall is due for a breakout game and I expect him to deliver when it matters the most. When Wall is attacking and playing well, the rest of the offense just seems to fall into place. I also expect the Wizards to play more small ball and try and spread out the Pacers defense to get their offense back in sync.

There's a strong system here telling us to fade the Pacers. Road Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have an average offense (92-98 ppg) against a poor defensive team (98-102 ppg) after allowing 90 points or less in 2 straight games are just 12-43 (22%) ATS since 1996. That's a 78% system in favor of the Wizards!

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Game of the Month on Clippers -

This is pretty much do or die for the Clippers, who can't afford to fall behind 3-1 with two of the next three being played in Oklahoma City. I'm confident Los Angeles will get the job done and cover the spread at home. This is a good spot to go against the Thunder, who have won two straight and can relax now that they got back homecourt.

This season the Clippers are 20-9 ATS following a SU loss, 16-3 ATS revenging a loss as a favorite and 12-3 ATS after two straight games where they failed to cover the spread. I just don't see the Thunder winning back-to-back games at the Staples Center and three in a row overall.

There's also a strong system in play. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more 4 straight games are 36-10 ATS since 1996. That's a 78% system in favor of the Clippers!

3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Trail Blazers +

I like the Trail Blazers getting points at home in a must win situation. Portland is going to lay everything on line to avoid going down 0-3 and with the way this team plays at home I believe they will get the job done. The Trail Blazers were are a dominant 33-11 at home over the regular season and playoffs and that includes a double-digit win over the Spurs. San Antonio did beat the Blazers on the road in the second meeting in Portland, but it was by a mere 2-points. Given what this game means to the Trail Blazers, the value is with the home team.

There's a couple of strong systems in play favoring Portland. Explosive offensive teams who average 103+ ppg are 153-83 (65%) ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half since 1996. We also see that home underdogs who average 103+ ppg on the season are 56-28 (67%) after allowing 55+ points in the first half in each of their last two games since 1996.

4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Nets +

It hasn't been as competitive a series as most expected to this point, but I don't think the Nets are going to go down without a fight. Brooklyn went into the 4th quarter with a great chance to win Game 2 in Miami, but went ice-cold from the field and ended up scoring just 15 points over the final 12 minutes. I know the Heat have won six straight in the playoffs, but if there was a game where they were going to relax and suffer a letdown, this would be it. I strongly believe the value is with Brooklyn as a home dog.

Brooklyn is 10-1 in their last 11 home games when playing with double revenge and a perfect 9-0 in their last 9 games after two straight losses by 10 or more points. That's a 95% system in favor of the Nets!

4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Clippers -4

This will be the seventh time these two teams will have faced off this season. No team has been able to win or cover in consecutive games and I expect that trend to continue. I know the the Thunder had the better record in the regular season and have the league's MVP in Kevin Durant, but I think the Clippers are the better team and will be the ones advancing to the Western Conference Finals.

Durant is coming off a monster performance in Game 2, where he just missed out on a triple-double with 32 points, 12 rebounds and 9 assists. While he's going to get his in this series, I think there's a good chance he won't have as big as impact in Game 3. Even if Durant goes off again, I don't see the Thunder getting a similar performance out of Westbrook, who scored 31 points on 13 of 22 shooting. Westbrook is only shooting 42.3% in the playoffs and I look for the Clippers to do a better job of not letting him get as many easy looks.

Keep in mind that while Durant and Westbrook combined for 63 points, Chris Paul and Blake Griffin combined for just 32. I look for both Paul and Griffin to have a much bigger impact and I also like the Clippers supporting cast to have a big game.

Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a road loss of 10 or more points in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75% win pct.) are 118-71 ATS since 1996. That's a 62% system in favor of the Clippers!

3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Trail Blazers +

As good as the Spurs looked in their 24-point win in Game 1, I like the Trail Blazers to come back with a much stronger performance in Game 2. Portland is a better team than what they showed on Tuesday and 7-points is simply too many for the Trail Blazers to be catching in this spot. It's not out of the question that Portland won't win this game outright.

The Trail Blazers are too good of an offensive team to repeat their poor shooting from Game 1. Portland shot just 37.8% from the field and were a dismal 4-16 (25%) from long distance. They also had an uncharacteristic 20 turnovers and failed to bring the intensity on the defensive end. These are all areas that they can improve on in Game 2 and I believe they will.

There's a key system in play suggesting a play on Portland. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are an explosive offensive team, scoring 103+ ppg, after trailing in their previous game by 20 or more points at the half are 39-12 ATS since 1996. That's a 77% system in favor of the Trail Blazers!

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Nets +

I wasn't surprised at all to see the Heat dominate Game 1, as Miami had a huge rest advantage and the Nets were coming off that huge Game 7 road win over the Raptors. After a day to regroup and really focus in on the Heat, I expect Brooklyn to look like a completely different team in Game 2. Not only do I think the Nets will keep it close enough to cover, but they have a great shot at winning this game outright.

One of the reasons the Nets were able to have success against the Heat during the regular season, is they slowed the game down and really made Miami work for their offense. That wasn't the case in Game 1, but I'm confident they will execute their game plan better tonight.

Brooklyn is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games off a blowout loss by 15 or more points and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team that has won 60% or more of their home games, while the Heat are a mere 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 home games against a team that has won less than 40% of their road games. Combined that's a 76.5% (39-12) system in favor of the Nets!

5* NBA Playoffs Western Conference Game of the Year on Thunder -

Forget what happened in Game 1. The Clippers, mainly Chris Paul, caught fire in the opener and Oklahoma City was ice-cold and turned the ball over 17 times. Los Angeles shot 54.9% from the field and a staggering 51.7% from behind the 3-point line. Paul was 12 of 14 (8-9 3pts) for 32 points. One of the key things that got overlooked is the Thunder kept Blake Griffin in check for the most part, as he was just 7 of 16 from the field.

The home team has dominated the second round of the NBA playoffs over the years and tonight's matchup also falls into the zig-zag theory. Another thing to keep in mind is that all four regular season games were decided by 6 or more points. This is a big letdown spot for the Clippers and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Oklahoma City returned the favor and won here by double-digits.

The Thunder are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games after a combined score of 215 or more, 50-29 ATS in their last 79 off a home loss and 17-7 in their last 24 home games revenging a straight up loss as a favorite.

Explosive offensive teams scoring 103+ points/game on the season, after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 152-82 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% long-term system in favor of the Thunder!

4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Pacers -

The Pacers haven't looked like the same team that dominated early on in the regular season, but they have shown the ability to rally together and win when they need to. Indiana is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss and desperately needs a victory in Game 2 to avoid going down 0-2 with the next two games in Washington. I expect the Pacers to respond and there's a lot of value here with them laying just 4.5-points. Keep in mind that during the two regular season matchups at Indiana, the Pacers were an 11 and 9 point favorite.

The Wizards are surprisingly 4-0 on the road in the playoffs, with each of their last two wins coming away from home. However, Washington is just 11-26 ATS in their last 37 games after 2 or more consecutive road victories.

There's a solid system in play for Indiana. Favorites who are a good defensive team (41.5-43.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 42% or less are 70-41 ATS since 1996. That's a 63% system in favor of the Pacers!

4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Heat -

Forget about the fact that the Nets swept the regular season series. Miami is a different monster in the postseason and they have a huge advantage going into this series. The Heat were the only team in the first round to sweep their opponent, while the Nets were one of several teams who had to go the distance and on top of that they had to go Toronto for Game 7 on Sunday.

Miami has had a full week off and I look for the extra practice time to pay off big. The Heat are going to have new plays installed and give the Nets a different look than what they saw during the regular season. One of the reasons Brooklyn was able to have success against Miami was because they were able to slow down the game. That's not going to happen tonight. The Heat and their fresh legs will dictate the tempo and I look for them to dominate right from the opening tip.

Adding to the huge rest advantage, teams who have had 5 or more days of rest against an opponent on just 1 day of rest are 9-3 ATS in Game 1 of a series since 2004. This system is even stronger if you look at games only dating back 2009, as it's gone 5-1 during this stretch. Overall it's a 75% system in favor of the Heat!

4* NBA Playoffs Heavy Hitter on Pacers -

I was really impressed with the way the Pacers stepped up and delivered two huge performances to avoid an unthinkable upset to the Hawks in the first round. I believe that was exactly what this team needed to get out of their funk and I look for them to carry over that momentum into a win over the Wizards in Game 1.

I still think a lot of people are questioning the Pacers right now and as a result I think Indiana is showing some great value at home. In the two regular season matchups between these two teams at the Fieldhouse, Indiana won and won easily. Both victories came by at least 20-points and the Wizards scored just 139 points in the two games combined.

Indiana's defense really stepped in those last two games against the Hawks and that strong play on the defensive side of the ball sets up the Pacers in a favorable spot. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 42+ games into the season, with an average offense (92-98 ppg) against a poor defensive team (98-102 ppg) after allowing 85 points or less in their last game are 80-41 ATS since 1996. That's a 61% long-term system in favor of the Pacers!

4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Spurs -6.5

My money is on the Spurs to take care of business and cover the spread at home in Game 7. San Antonio is the better team and I believe they are going to turn what most are expecting to be a close game into a blowout.

The fact that San Antonio is favored by 6.5-points says a lot. The Spurs haven't covered a single game in this series and there's little doubt the public will take the points in this spot. Anytime it feels like the books have set a bad line, it's usually a good idea to go against the obvious choice.

There's no denying the Maverick's ability to score the basketball, but in a Game 7 in the playoffs it's about which team can dominant on the defensive end of the floor. I don't think there's any question that San Antonio is the stronger team on that side of the ball, which is a big reason why I like the Spurs to win and cover at home.

There's also a strong system in play. Favorites who are shooting 47.5% or better from the field against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, average rebounding team (+/-3 Reb/G) against a poor rebounding team (-3 to -5.5 Reb/G) - 42+ have won 62% of the time since 1996!

3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Thunder -

The Grizzlies have no chance of keeping this one close. Memphis will be without leading scorer Zach Randolph, who is suspended after throwing a punch at Oklahoma City's Steven Adams in Game 6. On top of that, starting point guard Mike Conley will be playing at less than 100% with a bum hamstring.

It's hard enough for road teams to win Game 7, but I just don't see anyway the Grizzlies keep this close without Randolph and a healthy Conley running the point. I look for Oklahoma City to jump all over Memphis early and as we saw in the Grizzlies' 20-point home loss in Game 6, they are not equipped to rally from a huge deficit.

Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a home loss and revenging a defeat of 10 or more points are just 31-58 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Thunder!

5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Trail Blazers -

I look for the Trail Blazers to close out the series at home tonight, making them an easy play as a 3.5-point favorite. I wasn't surprised to see the Rockets avoid elimination at home, but I just don't see Houston being able to play at the level in Portland.

The Trail Blazers only lost that game by 10-points, which is pretty shocking considering they only got 8-points out of their All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge. The same guy that came into that contest averaging 35.3 ppg in the series. I look for Aldridge to bounce back in style and for the rest of the players to continue to play well.

Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are revenging a road loss to an opponent of 10 or more points in a matchup of two good teams are 118-70 ATS since 1996. That's a 63% system in favor of the Trail Blazers! Adding to this is the fact that Houston is just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games after a win by 10 or more points and just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 more consecutive games!

3* Hawks/Pacers NBA Playoffs Main Event on Hawks +

Atlanta is not only a difficult matchup for the Pacers, but this Indiana team has completely fallen apart down the stretch. What made the Pacers such a great team was their effort and chemistry, but that was lost when Roy Hibbert opened his big mouth and called his teammates selfish. After watching this team fall behind by 30-points at home in crucial Game 5, I just don't think there's any recovering.

Oddsmakers are all but begging for action on the Pacers with this line, which only strengthens my thought that the Hawks are going to finish the job and close out this series at home. Atlanta should have won both matchups at home, but the Pacers were able to steal a victory in Game 4. Indiana's not going to be so fortunate this time around and I wouldn't be surprised if the Hawks won in convincing fashion.

The hot shooting of Atlanta is a big positive going into Game 6, as the Hawks are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games after making 50% or more of their 3-point attempts. Atlanta is also a dominant 12-4 ATS this season after a win by 10 or more points. Indiana on the other hand is just 9-19 ATS in the 2nd half of the season against teams who are averaging 99+ points/game. These three trends combine to form a massive 72% (48-19) system in favor of the Hawks!

5* NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Hawks/Pacers UNDER

The fate of the Pacers season rest on this game and I expect their defense to show up after allowing the Hawks to shoot 50% from the field in Game 5. Keep in mind that Indiana had held Atlanta under 40% shooting in each of the previous three games and all three of those contests finished under the total.

In the two games in this series played at Atlanta, the most these two teams have combined to score is just 183 points. In fact, each of the last 5 meetings, including the regular season, have all been extremely low scoring (184 or less) when these two teams play at Philips Arena.

It doesn't come as a huge surprise, as the UNDER is 21-9 in the Hawks last 30 home games against good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 43% or less shooting. The UNDER is also 16-5 in Atlanta's last 21 home games in the 2nd half of the season against teams with a winning record. These two massive trends combine to form a huge 73% (37-14) system in favor of the UNDER!

3* Rockets/Trail Blazers NBA Playoffs Late Night Bailout on Rockets -

While the Trail Blazers have a commanding 3-1 series lead, I fully expect the Rockets to stay alive with a relatively easy win at home in Game 5.

Despite the fact that Harden is averaging 27.5 ppg in the series, he's shooting just 35% from the field and is a horrific 26.8% from behind the 3-point line. He's simply too good of a player to keep playing at this level and I'll take my chances he delivers a huge performance when it matters the most.

The other thing to keep in mind is that this series could just as easily be tied at 2-2 or even a 3-1 Houston edge, as two of the Trail Blazers three wins have come in overtime. I'm not convinced that Portland will be able to win three straight at the Toyota Center, which is a big reason why I'm fine laying the 5.5-points. Keep in mind that Houston had lost just 8-times all season at home during the regular season. Even with the two losses in this series, they are still winning on average at home by 8.4 ppg.

History also suggests that Portland will struggle in this matchup. The Trail Blazers are just 5-15 ATS after two straight games with a combined score of 215 or more points and 8-20 after two straight games where both teams scored 100+. The Rockets on the other hand are 32-18 ATS at home after their last game went over the total and 16-7 ATS in their last 23 after allowing 100+ in 3 straight games. Combined that's a massive 69% (83-38) system in favor of the Rockets!

4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Bulls -

Chicago is one team that won't quit no matter the circumstances. They still believe they can win this series. I don't know if the Bulls can win three straight, but a definitely like them to win and cover at home in Game 5. The Wizards have some veteran players on their roster, but a lot of these guys don't have experience closing out a series, which is even a harder to do on the road. There's also some concern with Washington coming in a little over-confident after that easy win in Game 4.

Chicago is one of the better teams in the league when it comes to rebounding from a loss. The Bulls are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU loss and 26-16 ATS this season when revenging a loss to the same opponent. It's also worth noting that Washington head coach Randy Wittman is just 17-33 ATS on the road when his team has covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 games. These three trends combine to form a 65% (74-39-1) system in favor of the Bulls!

3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Pacers -

The Pacers were able to rally late in Game 3 to tie the series at 2-2 and now return home with a chance to take back control of this series. While Indiana lost at home in Game 1, they dominated Game 2 101-85. I expect a similar type performance tonight. The Pacers have to win this game to avoid facing elimination in Atlanta in Game 6. Given how well the Hawks have played at home, I expect Indiana to lay it all on the line to make sure they come away with a win. 

The Pacers have really turned it up defensively after that opening loss. Indiana has held the Hawks under 40% shooting in each of the last three games and that defense should only continue to get better as the series progresses. This sets up a profitable situation to back Indiana. Favorites who are good defensive teams, allowing 41.5% to 43.5% against a poor defensive team (45.5% to 47.5%) after three straight games of allowing a shooting percentage of 42% or less are 70-40 ATS since 1996. That's a 64% system in favor of the Pacers!

3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Heat -

Without a 100% healthy Al Jefferson, Charlotte has no hope of coming back from a 3-0 deficit. The Bobcats showed some fight early in Game 3, but things quickly got out of hand. Without Jefferson dominating down low, Charlotte's offense is pretty easy for Miami to defend. I also think the Heat understand the importance of closing out this series and not letting it drag on.

Miami has really shot the ball well from the outside against the Bobcats, They went 9 of 18 (50%) in Game 3 and are hitting 45.3% from behind the arc in the series. This sets up a favorable trend. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are making 36% or more of their 3-point attempts are 59-30 ATS in the month of April over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% system in favor of the Heat!

4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Trail Blazers -

The Rockets were fortunate to avoid falling behind 3-0 in the series, as Troy Daniels saved their season. Portland has looked like the better team so far, yet we find them laying just 2.5-points at home. The Trail Blazers lost just 10 games at home during the entire regular season. You have to think there's a better chance they win Game 4 than drop two straight at home.

Portland is 21-9 ATS in their last 30 games revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100 or more points, while Houston is just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 road games after allowing 105 points or more in 2 straight games.  We also see that home teams who have won 60% to 75% of their games, with a line of +3 to -3 off an upset loss as a favorite are 79-39 ATS since 1996 when playing a team with a winning record. That's a 67% system in favor of the Trail Blazers!

3* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on Mavericks/Spurs UNDER

The books have set the mark too high in Game 3 between the Spurs and Mavericks. While these two teams combined for 205 points in Game 2, that was with both teams shooting extremely well from the field. Dallas shot 48.9%, while the Spurs connected on exactly 50% of their attempts. The thing to keep in mind is that these two teams are now very familiar with one another by this point and let's not forget the combined for a mere 175 points in Game 1.

The UNDER is 90-58 in the Spurs last 148 games when they are revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a favorite and the average total in these games is just 187.2 points. The UNDER is also 6-1 in San Antonio's last 7 games after allowing 100 or more points and 5-1 in the Mavericks' last 6 after they scored 100 or points last time out.

The UNDER is 68-30 in Game 3 of a playoff series with a total set at 200 or more points and 42-14 since 1996 when this takes place in the first round. That's a 75% system in favor of the UNDER!

4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Nets -

The Nets could have easily won both games in Toronto. They had a 8-point lead going into the 4th quarter of Game 2, before completely falling apart defensively. Brooklyn allowed Toronto to put up 36-points in the final 12 minutes. While it was a disappointing loss, I look that poor finish to light a fire under the Nets at home.

Brooklyn finished the regular season a solid 28-13 at home, but were even stronger than that down the stretch. The Nets went 15-2 over their final 17 games at the Barclays Center. Not only have they been winning, but most importantly they have been covering the spread. Brooklyn is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning record. The Raptors don't exactly have a history of playing well on the road in the playoffs. Toronto has lost 12 straight away from home in the postseason.

The Nets have also responded well from a loss on the road against the same opponent. Brooklyn is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games revenging a road loss. Toronto on the other hand is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team who has won more than 60% of their games at home. If you add up all the trends mentioned, it combines to form a rock solid 81% (39-9-1) system in favor of the Nets!

3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Warriors +

While the Clippers come in off a 40-point blowout win in Game 2, Golden State is more than happy about heading home with the series tied 1-1. Not surprising at all to see the Warriors suffer a bit of a letdown after that huge win in Game 1. They know if they can simply hold serve at home, they have an excellent shot at advancing to the semifinals.

It's no secret that Oracle Arena is one of the more difficult places to play and I believe that homecourt edge will be the difference in Game 3. It's a big reason why the Warriors are a dominant 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games in the first round of the playoffs.

Golden State has also done a great job of bouncing back from an ugly performance, as they are 19-9 ATS over the last two seasons after a blowout loss by 10 or more points. There's also a strong system in play supporting the home team. Underdogs who average 103+ ppg are 65-30 ATS since 1996 after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half. That's a 68% system in favor of the Warriors!

4* NBA Playoffs Vegas Insider on Hawks +

I've really been impressed with how the Hawks have matched up with the Pacers and I look for them to take back control with a win at home tonight. I wasn't surprised at all that Atlanta lost Game 2, as they had already secured the split in Indiana.

A lot of people are quickly jumping back on the Indiana bandwagon after that dominating 2nd half, but I still have a lot of concerns with this team. Even when the Pacers were playing well, they had their struggles on the road. Indiana finished the regular season a mere 21-20 on the road. Atlanta on the other hand is a much stronger team at home, which is important to note after how well they played at Indiana.

The Pacers have really struggled of late against strong offense teams, as they are a mere 8-17 ATS in the second half of the season against team who average 99+ points/game. They are also just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games versus a team with a winning home record and are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win by more than 10 points. Combined that forms a solid 76% (35-11) system in favor of the Hawks!

3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Rockets -

I look for the home town Rockets to bounce back from a disappointing overtime loss in Game 1 with a convincing victory in Game 2. Similar to what we saw with the Clippers and Pacers the last couple of nights. Houston shot just 41% from the field, 22.9% on 3-pointers and 65% from the free throw line, which were all well below their season averages.

That was just the 9th loss suffered by the Rockets at home all season. Even with the loss they are still winning by an average of 8.8 ppg at the Toyota Center. The Trail Blazers are not a great road team and I believe they will be content going back to Portland with the series tied at 1-1.

The fact that the Trail Blazers needed over-time to defeat the Rockets with LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard combining for 77 points, has to be a huge concern for Portland going forward. That kind of production is not sustainable over a 7-game series. Keep in mind James Harden (27), Dwight Howard (24) and Chandler Parsons (24) each scored 20+ and only outscored Aldridge and Lillard by 1-point (78-77). I'm confident both Aldridge and Lillard could play well tonight and Houston will still win by double-digits.

There's a solid system in play favoring Houston. Teams who have scored 100 points or more in 4 straight games (Rockets) in a contest involving two horrible defense teams (102+ ppg) are 83-54 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 61% system in favor of Houston!

5* NBA Playoffs No Limit Top Play on Bulls -

The Bulls let Game 1 get away from them, as they managed to blow a 13-point second half lead. Even with the loss, I still feel like Chicago is the better team and I fully expect them to bounce back with a dominating performance in Game 2. The Wizards will be content with going back to Washington tied 1-1, which will make it difficult for them to match the intensity of the Bulls in this one.

I'm also confident the Bulls won't allow the Wizards to top 100 points and shoot 48.6% from the field like they did in Game 1. No team is better on the defensive end than Chicago. Tom Thibodeau and his staff will make the proper adjustments. Keep in mind that in the final regular season meeting the Bulls held Washington to just 78 points on 39.5% shooting.

Few teams are as good as the Bulls at bouncing back from a loss. Chicago is 25-15 ATS revenging a loss to an opponent this season and 27-13 ATS in their last 40 games off a home loss. The Bulls are also a dominant 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing 100 or more points in their last contest!

3* NBA Playoffs Main Event on Raptors -

Toronto found themselves down 8-points after the 1st quarter and while they were able to fight back that early hole proved to be too much in the end. Keep in mind that the Raptors were making their first playoff appearance in six years. It's not a huge surprise to see them come out sluggish in Game 1. With a better understanding of what to expect, I look for a completely different Toronto team to take the floor in Game 2.

The fact that the Raptors were able to keep it close in Game 1 with the performance they got from leading-scorer DeMar DeRozan is a big positive going into tonight's matchup. DeRozan was just 3-13 from the field and finished with 14 points. Well below his regular season average of 22.7. Toronto also got little to nothing out of starters Amir Johnson and Terrence Ross. The two combined for just 5 points, which isn't where close to the 22.2 ppg they combined to average after the All-Star break.

Toronto is 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU loss, while the Nets are a mere 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. The Raptors are also a dominant 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games after forcing 8 or fewer turnovers in their last game. Combined that's a 82.5% (32-7-1) system in favor of the Raptors!

3* NBA Playoffs No Doubt Rout on Pacers -

Everyone wants to talk about how bad Indiana has played down the stretch, but it's not like Atlanta has been playing great basketball. In fact, the Hawks are a miserable 14-23 in their last 37 games (including their Game 1 victory). I'll take my chances of the Pacers rebounding with a dominant performance at home against a below-average team. Even with the loss in Game 1, Indiana is 35-7 at home and are still beating opponents on average at the Fieldhouse by 10 ppg. In my opinion, this game has blowout written all over it.

Atlanta is just 3-11 ATS when playing with 2 days of rest and will find it difficult to not relax in Game 2. They came into Indiana hoping for a split and with that already in the bag, I see a huge letdown coming tonight. You also have to keep in mind that the Pacers are the better team and if they respond like they should, there's no reason they won't win this game by double-digits. Indiana is 23-11 ATS over the last two seasons at home off a loss in their last game and have won these contests by an average of 10.2 ppg!

5* NBA Playoffs First Round Game of the Year on Clippers -

The Warriors stunned the Clippers in Game 1 of the series, as they came away with a 109-105 road win. However, I'm not convinced Golden State will be able to match that performance in Game 2.

Blake Griffin played just 19 minutes because of foul trouble. Griffin is the most important player for Los Angeles and not having him on the floor completely changed the dynamics of that game. One of the big advantages the Clippers have in this series with the Warriors missing Andrew Bogut is their size. The fact that Griffin was able to score 16 points with 3 rebounds and 3 assists in such a limited amount of time, really says a lot about the impact he can have on the game. Not only can we expect Griffin to dominate in Game 2, but Jamal Crawford figures to play a bigger role after going just 2-11 from the field in 22 minutes off the bench.

The other big key here is motivation. Golden State's primary goal was to head back home for Game 3 tied at 1-1. This is a clear letdown spot for the Warriors. Los Angeles on the other hand has to have this game. Teams who lost at home in the NBA playoffs by more than 3-points that won at least 60% of their games during the regular season and are listed as a favorite of 6 to 9 points have covered the spread at a 62% clip since 2002!

3* NBA Playoffs Total Dominator on Rockets/Blazers OVER -

I know the playoffs are suppose to bring out the best in teams defensively, but there's simply too much offensive fire-power between the Rockets and Trail Blazers. Houston finished 2nd in scoring at 107.7 ppg, while Portland was 4th at 106.7 ppg.

The big key here is that both teams love to play at a fast pace, which should have both teams flying over their season averages. Oddsmakers simply didn't set the bar high enough with this number. In the season series the fewest these two combined to score was 215 points and that was with the two combining to go 13 for 47 (27.7%) from the 3-point line.

The OVER is 10-1 in the Trail Blazers last 11 games against a team with a winning percentage between 60% to 70% and 8-1 in the Rockets last 9 in the same situation. It's also 12-3 in Portland's 15 games this season versus teams who attempt 27 or more free throws per game and 14-4 in the Rockets last 18 games in the 2nd half against teams who average 83 or more shots/game. Total that's a 44-9 (83%) system in favor of the OVER!

4* NBA Playoffs No Brainer on Bulls -

The Bulls are a team nobody wants to face in the playoffs and I like how they matchup with the Wizards. Keep in mind that the only reason Washington is the No. 5 seed, is because the Nets purposely fell back to No. 6. Chicago lost the first two games of the season series, but in the most recent matchup they embarrassed the Wizards 96-78 on their home floor. Washington shot just 39.5% from the field and were sitting on just 26-points at the half. That's what Chicago's defense can do to teams and I look for the Bulls' defense to really make life miserable for the Wizards in this series.

Energy is everything for the Bulls and they will have plenty of at home in the first game of the series. Chicago is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with 3 or more days rest. Joakim Noah, who has carried this team down the stretch with his play, will be playing even harder than normal after the recent death of his mentor Tyrone Green. Not only do I expect a big effort out of Noah, but I look for the rest of the Bulls players to rally around the potential Defensive Player of the Year.

4* NBA Playoffs Total Annihilator on Clippers/Warriors OVER

I know playoff games have a strong tendency to go UNDER the total, but I don't think the books have set the bar high enough for the Clippers and Warriors. Los Angeles led the NBA in scoring at 107.9 ppg and the Warriors were 10th at 104.3 ppg. If the two teams were to simply put up their average, we would be over the total by 1-point.

That might not seem like a lot of value, but you have to remember the Warriors are without Andrew Bogut, who is one of the top rim protectors in the league and a huge reason why Golden State finished 10th in scoring defense (99.5 ppg). Without Bogut the Warriors are going to have to play a smaller lineup, which I believe is going to force them to rely even more on the outside shot and play at a faster pace to try and get some easy baskets in transition. The Clippers love to play up-tempo and I look for them to score at will against the Warriors at home.

The OVER is 14-4 in the Clippers last 18 home games in the month of April, 5-1 in their last 6 first round playoff games, 19-7 in their last 26 home games versus a team with a winning record and 12-4 when they are playing a team who won more than 60% of their games. It's also 4-1 in the Warriors last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. That's a 76% (54-17) Massive System in favor of the OVER!

5* NBA Playoffs First Round Vegas Insider on Raptors -

The Raptors are showing great value as a small home favorite against the Nets. Brooklyn is getting a little too much love right now. The Nets were not a great team away from home. They finished just 16-25 straight up on the road and were a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7. Toronto has won 8 of their last 10 home games and are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 home games versus a team that has won less than 40% of their games on the road.

Toronto lost at home in the first meeting 100-102, but they came back and crushed the Nets at the Air Canada Centre 96-80 back in early January. Brooklyn won the final matchup between these two teams during the regular season by a score of just 101-97 at home. Toronto is 45-29 ATS over the last 3 seasons revenging a road loss.

The Raptors were stronger both offensively and defensively during the regular season. Brooklyn ranked just 21st in scoring (98.5 ppg) and were 11th in points allowed (99.5 ppg). Toronto on the other hand ranked 13th in scoring (101.3 ppg) and 7th in points allowed (98.0).

One of the reasons I think we are getting such great value on the Raptors is they went just 1-5 ATS over their last 6 games, including back-to-back non-covers to close out the regular season. Toronto is a dominant 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games.

3* NBA No Doubt Rout on 76ers +

5* Non-Conference Game of the Month on Bulls -

The Bulls have matched a season-high with 5 straight wins and I expect them to have no trouble making it six in row. Each of Chicago's last four wins have come by double-digits, including a 18-point win at Washington last time out. The Bulls have won four straight in Minnesota, each by at least 6-points.

Chicago is currently tied with the Raptors for the No. 3 spot in the Eastern Conference. While they won't admit it, securing 3rd is important. If they were to finish 3rd, they would get either Washington or Charlotte in the first round. A 4th place finish would have them likely going up against red-hot Brooklyn.

Minnesota on the other hand has nothing to play for at this point and I could see them coming out flat after a win over the Spurs last night. Chicago isn't exactly a fun team to play against and the Bulls figure to bring the defensive intensity playing with a full 3 days of rest. There's also less incentive here with Minnesota already beating the Bulls 95-86 earlier this season.

The Timberwolves are just 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games after winning 3 of 4 and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on no rest. Combined that's a 79% (27-7) system favoring a Chicago cover. It's also worth mentioning that the Bulls are 40-23 ATS over the last 3 seasons in road games after winning at least 4 of the previous 5 games and 24-15 ATS revenging a loss to an opponent this season.