5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* on Heat -4
The Heat have been dominant all year at home, where they are 36-7. They are 8-2 at home in the playoffs with those 8 victories coming by an average of 15.9 points. It is also worth noting that they are 3-0 in their series home openers, winning those by an average of 18.7 points.

After stealing away Oklahoma City's home court advantage, the last thing the Heat want to do is give it right back. They get 3 consecutive games at home to try to wrap the series up and would prefer not to go back to Oklahoma City.

Slow starts have become an issue for the Thunder. They were able to recover from one in Game 1 but couldn't do so in Game 2. They'll especially struggle to fight back on the road if they get behind early again.

Ultimately, I believe Miami's defense will be the difference tonight. We're talking about a team that is only allowing 89.0 points per game at home.

The Heat are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 playoff games as a favorite. Lay the points.

5* NBA Finals *BEST BET* on Heat +5.5
After blowing a 13-point lead in Game 1, and not wanting to fall into a 0-2 hole, expect Miami to be out for blood tonight.

The Heat, one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, know they must tighten the screws on the defensive end after allowing Oklahoma City to shoot over 50%. I have no doubt Miami will be better defensively tonight as it has only allowed opponents to shoot 50% or better twice in these playoffs.

We have seen the way, LeBron James has been able to take his game to another level when the Heat had their back up against the wall in each of their previous two series. I don't expect him to wait in this series. After hearing all the talk that Kevin Durant is the best player in the NBA, James will be out to prove otherwise.

The value has lied with the road team in this matchup as the road squad is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings. It also can't be ignored that the Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Miami is also 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. We'll take the points with Miami in this bounce back spot.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder -5
The Thunder are 34-7 at home on the season, including a perfect 8-0 in the playoffs. Those 8 wins have come by an average of 10.6 points. The Thunder won this year's regular-season home meeting against the Heat by 16 points as their depth proved to be too much for Miami. Their depth and fresher legs will be the difference in this one.

It is also worth noting that plays on any excellent offensive team that averages 102 points or more per game that is matched up against a good defensive squad that holds its foes to 88-92 ppg, provided the "play on" side allowed 60 points or more in the first half last game, are 31-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. This system is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season.

The Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games with each of those wins coming by at least 5 points. Looking back, they are an impressive 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games.

In addition, the Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on 3 days' rest or more, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when laying points, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a victory. The Heat are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog.

In all, we have a 45-0 angle in our favor. Take the Thunder.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +8
After getting embarrassed in Game 6, and knowing that this may be their last chance to get back to the NBA Finals, expect the nucleus of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen to leave it all on the floor tonight. Doing so should give Boston an opportunity to win.

The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games versus the Heat and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Miami. The C's have either won or lost by 8 points or less in 8 of the last 10 matchups.

Boston took it on the chin at home in Game 6 as LeBron James delivered a legendary performance, but it is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following an ATS loss and 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games following a SU loss. In other words, this is a resilient team.

It is also worth noting that the Celtics are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

I also like the edge Boston has with Doc Rivers. He has outcoached Erik Spoelstra in this series, and I expect him to continue to do so tonight. We'll take the points.

3* NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +2
The Celtics only have 1 loss at home in these playoffs and that defeat came by a single point. In other words, they have either won or lost by fewer than 2 points in all 9 of their home postseason contests. Going back to the regular season, Boston has either won or lost by fewer than 2 points at home in 23 straight. This is a 23-0 trend I'm getting behind this evening.

The Heat have lost 4 of their last 6 on the road in these playoffs, including both games in Boston.

Rajon Rondo has been the difference maker in this series. He has been able to get his team more easy looks than Miami during this series. The Heat have been too much of a one-on-one team, which makes them easier to defend. Consider that Boston is 9-1 ATS in home games in the 2nd half of the season the last 2 seasons versus poor passing teams that average 20 assists or fewer per game. The C's have defeated these foes by an average score of 93.1 to 82.3

Miami's last 2 losses in this series have come by 2 and 4 points, but recent history shows us that they haven't bounced by well from close defeats. In fact, the Heat are just 6-20 ATS since LeBron James arrived following a loss by 6 points or less. The Heat have gone down by an average score of 99.5 to 97.6 in this situation.

Lastly, the Heat are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings and 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Boston. Take the Celtics.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs +5
This experienced and accomplished San Antonio squad won't go down without a fight tonight.

Consider that road teams that have trailed their last 3 games by 5 points or more at the half and are matched up against an opponent that is coming off 2 straight games in which it and its opponent scored 100 points or more are 39-13 ATS since 1996. The "play on" side has only lost by an average 3.8 points. It is also worth noting that this system is a perfect 2-0 ATS this season.

In addition, the Spurs are 8-0 ATS since the beginning of last season in road games when out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent. They have won these games by an average score of 102.9 to 96.4.

This could be the last chance for the nucleus of Duncan, Ginobli and Parker to earn another championship ring. They won't easily hand over the torch to the Thunder. I like the Spurs chances of winning this one outright so we'll certainly take the insurance points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Heat -7.5
The Heat blew an opportunity to take complete control of the series with an overtime loss in Game 4. They now enter Game 5 with a greater sense of urgency, and I expect them to roll to comfortable win.

Boston has won 2 in a row and 2 of the last 3 games have gone to overtime and Miami is laying this many points? It's clear the books want the money on Boston tonight and they're getting it.

Whether or not Chris Bosh returns to action, I really like Miami here. Consider that the Heat have won at home versus Boston by 8 points or more in 6 of the last 8 meetings. Those 6 wins have come by an average of 12.5 points.

In addition, Miami is 12-4 ATS after having lost 2 of its last 3 games this season. It has won by an average score of 97.9 to 88.6 in this situation. It is also 15-5 ATS in home games after a game where it failed to cover the spread this season. It has won by an average score of 103.5 to 86.5 in this situation. The Heat are even 10-4 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Celtics, meanwhile, are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win.

Just when it looked like Miami might be losing its grip in the Eastern Conference semis, it kicked it in high gear versus the Pacers. I expect a similar response tonight.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs -5
Off back-to-back defeats on the road, expect the Spurs to bounce back strong at home where they are 11-0 in their last 11 with a 16.4-point average margin of victory.

The Spurs are 23-5-1 ATS in their last 29 home games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. They are even 8-1 ATS this season in home games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent that occurred this season. They have won by an average score of 106.7 to 91.4 in this situation.

The Thunder are 0-6 in their last in San Antonio, losing those games by an average of 10.3 points. We'll lay the points.

5* NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year on Heat -130
Motivated by an embarrassing double-digit defeat in Game 3, expect the Heat to come storming back tonight.

The Celtics are a poor 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. In addition, they are just 6-18 ATS in home games off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

The fact Miami is favored is significant because the favorite is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Also, the Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.

Miami shot just 10 of 20 from the foul line in Game 3. We're talking about a team that was among the best during the regular season at 77.5%. I expect the Heat to shoot much better from the charity stripe and for Dwayne Wade to be much more efficient offensively in this one. The result should be a Miami win.

I really like the Heat laying points, and expect them to win this one going away, but am taking them on the money line for insurance. Best of luck!

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs +3.5
I went against the Spurs in Game 3 as my NBA Game of the Year and it paid off big time as the Thunder ended San Antonio's 20-game win streak with a 20-point win. That, however, was the first time the Thunder had defeated the Spurs in the last 5 meetings. Expect the No. 1 seed in the West to bounce back strong tonight.

San Antonio is a perfect 8-0 ATS after a blowout loss by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons. It hasn't just won in this situation, it has won by an average score of 106.4 to 93.4.

In addition, Oklahoma City is 0-8 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season.

The Spurs were the best road team in the West this season, and they've either won or lost by 2 points or less in 6 of 8 all-time meetings in Oklahoma City. Take the Spurs showing good value in the underdog role tonight.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Heat +2
Boston's goose is cooked. The Celtics played as well as they can play in Game 2, but it wasn't enough. Boston's core of Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen combined to score 96 points, the most they've ever scored in a game together. After playing such heavy minutes in Game 2, I can't see any of these guys bouncing back to play as well in Game 3. We certainly can't expect another historic night from Rondo.

Miami is the younger, deeper team so it should be able to bounce back more easily from Wednesday's physically exhausting game.

This will be Boston's 4th game in 7 days, and it has been struggling when playing on just a days' rest at 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games in this situation. The Celtics covered the spread in Game 2 but are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a cover.

The Heat are 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) in their last 5 games, including 2-0 SU and ATS on the road during this stretch. They are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss, 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Finals games. We'll take the Heat.

5* NBA Game of the Year on Thunder -4
Down 0-2, it's do or die time for the Thunder knowing the history of teams that fall into an 0-3 hole. I expect them to "do" in impressive fashion on their home floor tonight.

The Thunder, who are 31-7 at home, have lost more than 2 consecutive games just once this season. In fact, OKC is 17-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. It has won by an average of 6.7 points in this situation.

The Thunder are 59-29-1 ATS in their last 89 games following a loss, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite and 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.

The Spurs are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 playoff games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less.

The Thunder are 5-0 at home in these playoffs where they have won by an average of 10.2 points. Lay the number.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics +8
Boston took it on the chin in Game 1, but I'm not hesitating to take the resilient Celtics in Game 2.

Boston hasn't lost back-to-back games in nearly two months. It is 9-0 in its last 9 games following a loss, winning those games by an average of 10.4 points.

The Heat rolled in Game 1, but we can't forget that the Celtics have still won 3 of the last 4 meetings. We also can't forget that Miami lost Game 2 of its previous series with the Pacers.

Rondo is the key tonight. I expect him to be very aggressive after a subpar effort by his standards in Game 1.

The Celtics are old, but they have the heart of a champion. We'll take the points as they take the Heat down to the wire.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +4.5
We have a strong NBA playoff system in our favor this evening as plays against favorites that are leading in a playoff series, provided they have a winning percentage of .750 or higher and are matched up against a team with a winning percentage of .600 to .750, are 33-11 ATS since 1996. The favorite has only won by an average of 0.7 points in this situation. It is also worth noting that this system has produced a 7-1 ATS record the last 5 seasons. With this in mind, the Thunder are showing some nice value catching 4.5 points.

In addition, OKC is a perfect 10-0 ATS the last 2 seasons in road games when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent. It has won by an average score of 104.1 to 98.6 in this situation.

The Thunder are 6-0 in their last 6 games following a loss, winning those games by an average of 11.0 points. Take the Thunder and the points tonight.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Heat -8
Boston has won 3 in a row versus Miami by 8 points or more and the Heat are laying 8? It's clear odds makers want the public on the Celtics here as they believe Boston won't be as fresh as Miami in Game 1 of this series.

The C's are coming off a grueling 7-game series and have only had 1 day of rest since closing out the 76ers. This is significant because Boston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The Heat, who have had 3 days' rest since closing out the Pacers, are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 3 or more days' rest.

In addition, the Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, 15-5 ATS in their last 20 playoff games as a favorite, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Conference Finals games.

Also, the home team is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings and the favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs -5.5
The Spurs, who have won 18 in a row, are in a groove. They have won their last two versus OKC (by 11 and 9 points), and they have won their last 4 at home versus OKC by an average of 12.5 points. The Thunder are just 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings and 4-11-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings in San Antonio.

The Spurs are 22-4-1 ATS in their last 27 home games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Thunder are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.

The Thunder rely on one-on-one play far too much for their scoring as they average just 18 assists per game, a number that drops to 17 on the road. The Spurs, meanwhile, average 23 assists per game, a number that rises to 24 at home. This is significant because San Antonio is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the 2nd half of this season versus poor passing teams averaging 20 or fewer assists per game. The Spurs have defeated these teams by an average score of 116.9 to 101.3. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Celtics -5.5
The Celtics haven't lost consecutive games since Apr. 4 and 5, and I don't expect them to start now. They are 8-0 in their last 8 games following a loss with an impressive 10.5-point margin of victory.

Boston has been nearly unbeatable on its home floor, winning 10 of its last 11 in the garden. It's 3-1 versus the 76ers during this stretch, winning those 3 contests by an average of 13.7 points.

This current core group of Celtics has a lot more experience in this type of situation than this young Philly squad. This group is 3-1 in Game 7's at home with those 3 victories coming by an average of 16.3 points.

Having had 2 days' rest in between games is also very beneficial to this veteran Celtics teams. The Celtics have had 2 days' rest twice in these playoffs and are 2-0 in the games following. After 2 day's rest following Game 4, Boston returned home to crush the 76ers by 16 points. We'll lay the number.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Pacers +3.5
After getting beat up and embarrassed in Game 5 and getting called out by NBA legend Larry Bird, expect the Pacers to respond in a big way at home tonight.

The Heat have been overmatched on the interior without Chris Bosh in the lineup and are even more so now with Udonis Haslem receiving a one-game suspension. I expect the Pacers to really pound it inside, taking advantage of their superior size.

History is in our favor here as good teams that outscore their foes by 3 points or more per game are 143-88 ATS the last 5 seasons following a blowout loss of 15 points or more.

Also, home teams that are out for revenge for a road defeats of 10 points or more, provided they and their opponent both have winning percentages of .600 to .750, are 167-111 since 1996.

It is also worth noting that Indiana is on an 81-50 ATS run when out for revenge for a loss in which it was held to less than 85 points. It has won by an average score of 93.3 to 91.6 in this situation.

The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Pacers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. And, the underdog is 26-12-1 ATS in the last 39 meetings between these teams. Take the points.

4* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on 76ers -1
Let's cut right to the chase. The 76ers are a 100 percent perfect 4-0 in these playoffs following a defeat, winning these games by an average of 7.0 points. I fully expect this trend to continue here.

The 76ers are 4-1 at home in these playoffs. Plus, the home team has won 9 of the last 11 in this series. Also, the Celtics are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 in Philadelphia.

Boston pulled away in the 2nd half for a 16-point win in Game 5. However, it is only 8-20 ATS after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Plus, Philly is 30-18 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons.

No team has won back-to-back games in this series, and I don't expect it to start now. Take Philly.

5* NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Total of the Year on Pacers/Heat Under 181
Three of the first four games in this series have finished under the number, and I expect this trend to continue tonight.

With both teams looking to take control of the series, I expect the effort and intensity on the defensive end to be at its highest level of the series.

Miami is an elite defensive team, especially at home where it has played to the under in 26 of 38 games this season. At the end of regulation, these two teams have totaled just 181 points or less in each of their last 3 games in Miami. We saw just 170 and 153 total points scored at the end of regulation in 2 of those games.

The Under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 4-0 in its last 4 games following an ATS win and 9-0 in its last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Also, the Under is 5-0 in Indiana's last 5 games when it has had a day to rest and prepare.

In addition, plays "Under" on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a playoff series that is tied are 42-10 the last 5 seasons, 22-6 the last 3 seasons and a perfect 6-0 this season. We'll take the Under.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Lakers +8
Since Game 1, this series has been extremely competitive. Games 2, 3 and 4 were decided by 3 points or less. Expect another close contest tonight as the Lakers fight hard in an attempt to fend off elimination.

Other than a 29-point win in Game 1 and a 16-point win in Game 3 of their first round series with Dallas, the Thunder's other 5 playoff wins have all come by 6 points or less.

The numbers suggest the Thunder are being overvalued here. After all, they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. It also can't be ignored that the Lakers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss. Take the points.

5* Eastern Conference Semifinals Game of the Year on Heat -125
This is a "must win" game for the Heat, and I fully expect them to take care of business.

Miami is capable of playing lock-down defense, as we saw in the first two games of this series and the first half of Game 3. The issue has been its offense.

Miami's offensive struggles won't continue. These guys are too good. Dwayne Wade is coming off a forgettable performance and will be very focused here because of it. We can't forget that LeBron James and Wade have a lot more big game experience than this Indiana squad.

The Heat have been a team of response at 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Also, plays on any team that is out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, provided it was upset by 15 points or more in its last game, are 29-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. We have seen the "play on" side win by an average of 3.3 points in this situation. Take Miami.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Clippers +5.5
The Clippers didn't put up much of a fight in San Antonio, but I fully expect them to be a different team at home this afternoon.

Consider that LA is 13-4 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent - this season. It has won by an average score of 95.7 to 91.1 in this situation.

In addition, the Clipps are a strong 15-5 ATS in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 3 seasons. They have actually won these contests by an average score of 97.4 to 95.6.

It is also worth noting that LA is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games as a home underdog and 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Spurs only defeated the Clippers by 3 points in their only meeting in LA this season. The Clippers also won the previous home game against San Antonio. We'll take the points as the Clipps give the Spurs all they can handle.

5* NBA "Total" Dominator on Celtics/76ers Under 174
After allowing Boston to shoot 51.9% from the field in Game 3, we can count on the 76ers to turn up the heat on the defensive end tonight.

Boston always seems to bring it's "D". It should have continued success on the defensive end against a 76ers squad that struggles to score in the half court.

There are more than a few trends in our favor here. Philly is 11-3 Under in home games after one or more consecutive overs this season. It is also 12-3 Under in home games when out for revenge for a loss to an opponent this season and 10-1 Under in home games after a game in which it forced 8 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. The Under is 4-1 in the 76ers' last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home, 26-10 in their last 36 games as a home favorite and 18-6 in their last 24 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.

The Under is 4-1 in the Celtics' last 5 games following a win of more than 10 points and 8-2 in their last 10 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less.

198 total points were scored in Game 3 and odds makers have come back with a line over 20 points lower. They clearly want the money on the Over as they are clearly expecting a defensive battle. We'll bet the Under.

5* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator on Heat/Pacers Over 181.5
After going under the number in a pair of defensive battles to start the series, expect the Heat and Pacers to have more success on the offensive end tonight.

Right away I love the fact that plays Over on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (Indiana in this case) that have scored 90 points or less in 2 straight games and are matched up against an opponent that checks in off a game with combined score of 175 points or less are 52-30 the last 5 seasons. We've seen an average of 187.3 total points scored in this situation.

In addition, the Over is 5-1-1 in the Heat's last 7 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less, 18-8-1 in the Pacers' last 27 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less, 7-2 in the Pacers' last 9 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 9-4 in the Pacers' last 13 games as a home underdog.

The Heat are 1-for-22 from 3-point range in this series and the Pacers are 7-for-32. We're talking about a pair of teams that average 6 3-point makes a game and shoot them at better than a 35% clip. Expect the shots to start falling tonight and for this one to find its way over the number as a result.

5* NBA Playoffs 2nd Round Game of the Year on Lakers +8
An embarrassing 29-point loss in Game 1 has certainly gotten LA's attention. Motivated by that defeat and hungry to steal away OKC's home-court advantage, expect the Lakers to show up in a big way tonight.

First off, the Lakers are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. When they were blown out by 15 at Denver in Game 3 of their first round series, they responded with a 4-point win. And when they were blown out by 17 in Game 6, they responded with a 9-point victory.

The Thunder, meanwhile, are 0-7 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more this season. They have only won by an average of 3.7 points in this situation. After exploding to win Game 3 of their first round series by 16, they only defeated Dallas by 6 points in Game 4.

It is also worth noting that the Thunder are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Heat -6.5
The Heat did not play well in Game 1 and still won by 9. Rest assured, they'll play much better tonight. We are getting a nice number here because Chris Bosh is out. We'll gladly take it because I don't expect his absence to be detrimental. Miami is at its best when it is getting out in transition, and it'll look to run more without Bosh on the block.

The Heat are an awesome 32-5 at home on the season. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games winning those contests by an average of 14.6 points. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

The Heat are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 Conference Semifinal games while the Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Conference Semifinal games. The Pacers are also 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a loss and 9-27 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points over the last 3 seasons. Take the Heat.

5* NBA Playoffs "Total" Dominator on 76ers/Celtics Under 174
These 2 combined for 183 points in Game 1 but neither played as well as they are capable of defensively. Philly had shot worse than 40% from the field in 7 of its previous 8 games before Boston allowed it to shoot 43.9%. Also, Philly has held the Bulls below 41.5% shooting in its previous 4 games before it allowed Boston to shoot 43.9%.

Boston ranked No. 2 in the NBA in points allowed per game and No. 1 in field goal percentage defense. Philly ranks 3rd in the NBA in both of those categories. We're talking about a pair of teams that can really tighten the screws on the defensive end. With Philly hungry to steal away Boston's home-court advantage, and with Boston hungry to make quick work of the 76ers in this series, I'm expecting electric defensive efforts from both sides in Game 2.

The Under is 9-3 in the Celtics' last 12 playoff games as a favorite and 20-8 in their last 28 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Under is 4-1 in the 76ers' last 5 overall and 26-10 after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Take the Under.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -7.5
Memphis has all the momentum on its side following wins in Games 5 and 6, and I fully expect it to roll at home in Game 7 tonight.

The Grizzlies are more battle tested having played in a pair of tough playoff series last season. They are also the healthier side.

Memphis has won 6 of its last 8 at home versus the Clippers with one of those losses coming in Game 1 when it blew a 27-point lead. Keep in mind that those 6 wins have come by an average of 11.3 points.

According to a closing line of +2.5 at some books, the Clippers actually covered the spread in Friday's 2-point loss. That bodes extremely well for us as plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a home loss to an opponent, provided they enter off an ATS victory in a game they lost SU, are 84-39 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have lost by an average of 9.9 points in this situation.

It's also important to note that the Clippers are only 1-11 ATS off a cover in a game they lost SU over the last 2 seasons. They have lost by an average of 9.0 points in this situation.

The home team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Also, the Clippers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Lay the points.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Lakers -5.5
The odds are in our favor here considering only 8 teams have ever come back from a 3-1 deficit. Plus, Kobe Bryant is 4-1 all-time in Game 7's. He'll be ready to go, and I expect his teammates will as well after he called them out following Thursday's loss. The Lakers should also get a lift on the defensive end from Metta World Peace, who has served his suspension.

The Lakers are 28-8 at home on the season and have won 31 of their last 37 at home versus Denver.

Historically speaking, LA's double-digit loss in Game 6 bodes well for us here for a number of reasons. First off, the Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points.

Also, plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponents, provided they are a good team (60-75% winning percentage) and matched up against a team with a winning record, are 62-32 ATS the last 5 seasons.

In addition, plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a road loss by 10 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 45-19 ATS the last 5 season.

Lastly, the Lakers are 21-8 ATS in their last 28 games when tied in a playoff series since 1996. They've won these games by an average of 6.9 points. Take the Lakers.

5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Game of the Year on Grizzlies -117
I still love the Grizzlies laying small change but am taking them on the money line for insurance on my investment.

I felt Memphis was the better team heading into this series, and I still believe that to be the case. The Grizzlies could have just as easily punched their ticket to the 2nd round by now as opposed to facing a 3-2 deficit. They blew a 27-point lead in Game 1 and they lost Games 3 and 4 in L.A. by narrow margins. They led Game 3 71-64 heading into the 4th and ended up losing by a single point. They lost Game 4 in OT.

L.A. made another late run on the Grizzlies in Game 5, but they were able to hold on for a 12-point victory. That win has them believing they can close out games.

All the pressure is on L.A. to close the series out tonight because it doesn't want to go back to Memphis. Teams usually don't perform well under pressure, and unfortunately for the Clippers, top players Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are banged up. I expect both of them to be bothered by their injuries tonight but fully expect Memphis to win this game even if both play well.

It is significant that odds makers have favored the Grizzlies here because they are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 points or fewer. The favorite is also 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these two. The Clippers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.

The experience gained by playing a couple tough playoff series' last year will also greatly benefit the Grizzlies tonight. Take Memphis.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Hawks +6.5
All the pressure is on Boston to close out the series at home tonight. Otherwise it faces a tough Game 7 in Atlanta where the Hawks have won 2 of 3 in the series. The Hawks have the luxury of playing with nothing to lose. They're on the road and not expected to win. They can roll the dice and that makes them dangerous catching 6.5 big ones.

Boston could very well take care of business here, but doing so by 7 points or more isn't very likely. After all, the Hawks have either won or lost by 6 points or less in 7 of their last 9 and 14 of their last 19 versus the Celtics.

These two teams play a lot of close games, which is a big reason why the underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. It is also worth noting that the road team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

In addition, the Hawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Celtics are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points as I expect this one to go right down to the wire.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -6
Back home off back-to-back losses in L.A. and needing a win to stay alive in the series, I expect the Grizzlies to rise to the occasion.

Memphis is 27-8 in home games this season, winning them by an average of 6.3 points. They won Game 2 at home by 7 and blew a 27-point lead in Game 1 so they are more than capable of covering this number.

There are a number of trends in our favor as well. Under coach Hollins, the Grizzlies are 53-34 ATS when out for revenge for two straight losses to an opponent. They are also 58-33 ATS under Hollins when out for revenge for a loss in which it allowed its foe to score 100 points or more.

Memphis is 17-6 ATS when it checks into a contest following loses in 3 of its last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. It is also an impressive 36-16-2 ATS in its last 54 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.

Recent history suggests this is the time to fade the Clippers as they are a poor 35-57 ATS in their last 92 road games after 2 or more consecutive wins. They are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. Lay the points with Memphis.

4* NBA SMASH on Bulls -4.5
The fact odds makers have made the Bulls this large of a favorite following 3 straight losses to the 76ers is significant. That's because home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a loss to a team that held them to less than 85 points, provided the home side has a winning percentage of 60-75% and is matched up against a foe with a winning record, are 40-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting these situation parameters have won by an average of 11.1 points.

In addition, Chicago is a potent 14-4 ATS when out for revenge for 3 straight losses to an opponents over the last 3 seasons.

The Bulls are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Also, the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

The Bulls are without 2 key pieces, but they still have enough talent to get the job done tonight. We'll lay the points as home court makes all the difference in this do-or-die spot.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks -1
Back home, where they are 24-11 on the season, and extremely motivated following an embarrassing Game 4 loss, expect the Hawks to fend off elimination tonight.

The Hawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 first round playoff games and 18-6 ATS in their last 24 home games in the first round of the playoffs. They are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.

The Hawks are also 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite, 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite.

The Celtics, on the other hand, are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as an underdog. Boston is also 18-34 ATS since the beginning of last season following a win by 10 points or more and 7-19 ATS during the same time frame after a blowout win by 15 points or more. Take the Hawks.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +8.5
The Jazz have been handed 3 consecutive double-digit defeats in this series but they won't go down without a fight tonight, not in front of the home fans.

We can't forget that the Jazz are an impressive 25-9 on their home floor this season. Plus, they have either won or lost to the Spurs by 7 points or less in 11 of their last 14 at home in the series.

The Spurs are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Jazz are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Lakers +2.5
Motivated by Friday's 15-point loss, expect the Lakers to come storming back in Game 4.

The Lakers, who are 4-1 in their last 5 games versus the Nuggets, are showing a lot of value here considering they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or fewer and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.

The Nuggets are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win.

LA doesn't want this series to go the distance. It will leave it all on the floor tonight in hopes of taking complete control of the series. We'll take the points as LA bounces back with a win.

4* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Jazz +6
At home following back-to-back blowout losses, expect Utah to save face with a strong performance tonight. The Jazz were one of the best home teams in the NBA this season at 25-8. Plus, they have either won or lost to the Spurs by 6 points or less in 10 of their last 13 at home in the series.

Recent history suggests the Spurs have been overvalued here as they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. It also can't be overlooked that the Jazz are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. We'll take the points.

5* NBA "Total" Dominator on Grizzlies/Clippers Under 187
Right away I like the under here considering plays under on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a playoff series that is tied, provided we have a team with a winning record playing another winning team, are 32-8 (80%) the last 5 seasons. We've seen an average posted total of 185.1 points in these games and an average combined score of only 180.8.

After a pair of uncharacteristic defensive efforts from a Memphis squad that is among the best defensive teams in the league, I'm expecting the screws to be tightened here. The Clippers are 11-0 under in home games the last 3 seasons versus good pressure defensive teams that force 16 turnovers per game or more.

The under is 8-1 in the Grizzlies' last 9 road games and 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less. The under is also 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two in L.A.

It is also worth noting that the Clippers are a much better defensive team at home. With each of these teams looking for the upper hand in the series, I'm expecting a very intense defensive battle today. We'll bet the under.

4* NBA SMASH on Magic +5
Off back-to-back double-digit losses to the Pacers, including an embarrassing 23-point loss at home last time out, expect the Magic to play with a sense of desperation in Game 4.

The Magic are an impressive 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. We can count on Stan Van Gundy having his troops ready to go here as his teams are 16-5 ATS all-time following a blowout loss by 20 points or more. His squads have actually won by an average of 5.3 points in this situation.

The Pacers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as a favorite. The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the points.

4* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Nuggets -3.5
At home following losses in the first two games of this series, the Nuggets will bounce back strong tonight.

Denver has done a good job of pushing the pace in this series, but it hasn't shot the ball well. Rest assured, the shots will fall easier at home where the Nuggets are shooting 47.9% on the season.

The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss while the Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win. It is also worth noting that the Lakers have been a fool's gold underdog in the postseason at 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog. The Nuggets are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 playoff games as a favorite.

It's already do-or-die time for the Nugs considering the daunting history of teams facing 0-3 deficits. They'll show up in a big way tonight.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Bulls +1.5
Motivated by an embarrassing loss in Game 2, expect the Bulls to make a statement that they can win this series without Rose tonight.

Chicago doesn't take losses lightly. In fact, it is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when out for revenge for a same-season loss. It has won these games by an average score of 93.7 to 81.3. The 81.3 points the Bulls have held their foes to in this spot tells us they have tightened the screws defensively in the rematch.

The Bulls are 38-14-2 ATS in their last 54 games following a loss, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less.

The 76ers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. Bet the Bulls.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Knicks +6
The Knicks may be without Amare Stoudemire tonight but they can't be counted out at home. New York went 9-4 in the 13 games Stoudemire missed down the stretch. The Knicks are actually a better defensive team without him on the floor.

The Knicks have lost each of the first two games of this series by double digits but are on an impressive 20-6 ATS run following consecutive road losses of 10 points or more. They have won by an average score of 98.1 to 95.0 in this situation.

New York's recent home court dominance also can't be ignored. Since Mike Woodson took over as interim coach on Mar. 14, the Knicks have gone 11-1 SU and ATS at home.

Miami has won all 5 meetings with the Knicks this season by at least 8 points. By installing Miami as less than an 8-point favorite, they are begging for the money to roll in on the Heat. They're looking for a big payday with a New York cover, but they won't have my money. We'll take the points as the Knicks take the Heat down to the wire.

5* NBA Playoffs Total of the Week on Clippers/Grizzlies Under 185.5
After blowing a 27-point lead by giving up 35 fourth-quarter points in Game 1, I expect an inspired defensive effort from one of the best defensive teams in the league tonight. The score should come in under this number as a result.

The under is 14-6 in the Grizzlies' last 20 overall, 21-8 in their last 29 games following a loss and 8-2 in Grizzlies last 10 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Also, Memphis is 19-7 under when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season and 9-1 under off an upset loss this season. As you can see by these trends, Memphis responds following losses by tightening the screws on the defensive end. Plus, it will be very fresh having not played since Sunday.

In addition, plays under on road teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a game involving two teams that allow 92-98 ppg and following a win by 3 points or less are 31-12 the last 5 seasons. We've only seen an average of 181.1 total points scored in this situation. Bet the Under.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Nuggets +6
Denver's 103-88 Game 1 loss places it in a strong historical situation tonight. Consider that plays on road teams - explosive offensive team scoring 103+ points/game on the season - after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 103-58 ATS since 1996. This system is an awesome 73-32 ATS the last 5 seasons.

In addition, the Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss, 36-15 ATS in their last 51 road games, 30-12 ATS in their last 42 games as an underdog, 28-10 ATS in their last 38 games as a road underdog and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Lakers are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a win, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Pacers -8.5
The Magic are not the same team without Dwight Howard. They took Game 1 but only managed 81 points. The Pacers have matchup advantages all over the court, especially inside, and I expect them to do a much better job of exploiting the mismatches in Game 2.

The Pacers only shot 34.5 percent from the field in Game 1, but don't expect them to shoot that poorly again versus an Orlando squad that has allowed its foes to shoot around 45 percent.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are out for revenge for a loss in which they were held to 85 points or less, a good team (.600-.750 winning percentage ) playing a team with a winning record, are 39-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 11.0 points. Lay the number with the Pacers.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -5.5
Memphis has the edge at home, where it is 26-7 with a 6.4-point average margin of victory. The Grizzlies were almost unbeatable at home in last year's playoffs, going 5-1 with those 5 wins coming by an average of 9.8 points.

The Grizzlies enter the playoffs having won 11 in a row at home with those wins coming by an average of 7.5 points. This run is significant because plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off 3 or more consecutive home wins, in April games, are 44-14 ATS since 1996, including a perfect 7-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 6.6 points but have won by an average of 10.6.

The Clippers are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. They aren't nearly as good on the road and lost their lone regular season meeting in Memphis by 9 points. Take the Grizzlies.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks +7.5
The defending NBA champs won't go down without a fight. The Thunder won 3 of 4 meetings during the regular season, but their wins only came by an average of 5.0 points. In other words, the Mavs are showing some nice value with this line.

In addition, the Mavericks are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinal games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record.

The road team is 24-8-2 ATS in the last 34 meetings between these teams and the underdog is 17-4-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings. Also, the Mavs are 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 road meetings in this series. We'll take the points.

4* NBA SMASH on Magic +9.5
The Magic may be without Dwight Howard but shouldn't be catching this many points. They are still very dangerous because of their ability to knock down 3-point shots. Orlando led the league in 3-pointers made and attempted and was third in percentage (.375).

The Magic are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Pacers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite. The Magic are also 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Indiana.

I think the players on this Orlando team will be looking to send a message to Howard that they are better than he gives them credit for, that they can win without him. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Clippers +3.5
This is a game the Clippers must have. They can earn home-court in the first round of the playoffs with a win or a Memphis loss to Orlando Thursday. With Dwight Howard out, they know they can't count on the Magic to pull off that upset.

NY can still move up to the sixth seed if it wins its final two games and the Magic lose their last two, but I don't see Orlando losing at home to Charlotte tonight. The Knicks don't either. That's why they seriously have to think about losing this game. If I'm the Knicks, I want the Bulls in the first round, not the Heat. New York has played Chicago much tougher than Miami this season. With that said, I like the Clippers here even if the Knicks go after this game.

The road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. We'll take the Clippers and the points.

5* NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Jazz -4
Motivated by an opportunity to punch their postseason ticket, and further fueled by 7 consecutive losses to the Suns, expect the Jazz to take care of business tonight.

Utah has been very strong at home all season with a 23-8 SU and 18-12-1 ATS record. It enters tonight's contest having won 4 straight and 13 of its last 16 at home with wins over the Lakers, Heat, Thunder, Nuggets, Spurs and Mavs during this stretch. In other words, Utah is fully capable of ending its skid against Phoenix in impressive fashion at home tonight.

The Jazz are a dominant 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. The fact that Utah has been shooting the ball well from deep also bodes well for us.

The Jazz haven't been reliant on the 3-point shot this season, but they have made 26 of 53 3-point attempts during their current 3-game winning streak. It is significant that they made 50% of their attempts from long range last game because they are a perfect 10-0 ATS in home games after a game where they made 50% of their 3 point shots or better over the last 3 seasons. They haven't just won these games, they've won them by an average score of 111.3 to 94.9.

Both teams have had 2 days to gear up for this one but the Suns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 2 days' rest while the Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on 2 days' rest. Take Utah.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +10.5
The Bobcats are the worst team in the NBA and quite possibly the worst team ever. They need a win in one of their final three games to avoid the NBA's all-time worst winning percentage. With Orlando and New York up next, this is their best chance to avoid falling into the history books for all the wrong reasons. I expect Charlotte to go after this game hard.

Fading Washington as a favorite has been a very strong play this season. According to the closing line, the Wizards have been favored 10 times this season going 3-7 ATS in those games, including 0-6 ATS in their last 6. In other words, this is not a team that can be trusted laying points, especially this many.

The Wizards have won 3 in a row with 2 of those wins coming against the Bulls and Heat but it should be noted that Deng and Rose weren't in the lineup for the Bulls and Bosh and James didn't suit up for the Heat (Wade only played 2 minutes before leaving with an injury).

We'll take the points.

5* NBA Total of the Week on Magic/Nuggets Under 203.5
A much better defensive effort from the Magic will keep this one under the number.

After giving up triple-digits for a third straight game, coach Van Gundy has called out his team. "We just cannot guard," Van Gundy said. "I don't think it is that our guys are not trying, I don't know what it is, but we cannot guard anyone. We can't guard anyone ... Our defense is disturbing to say the least."

Orlando is a perfect 9-0 under dating back to the start of last season after allowing 110 points or more in its last game. We have seen just 185.5 total points scored in this situation.

In addition, the under is 8-3 in the Magic's last 11 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 7-2 in the Nuggets' last 9 games as a favorite. The under is also 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +5
Having already locked up the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs, the Pacers can sit back and relax. The 76ers, meanwhile, should play with a greater sense of urgency as they try to avoid a potentially crucial matchup in Milwaukee on Wednesday. With a win and a Milwaukee loss to New Jersey, Philly would clinch the final playoff spot in the East.

Indiana is receiving plenty of recognition for its play this month, which bodes well for us as the books know which team the public will be backing. The Pacers have covered the spread in 5 of their last 6 games, which is significant because they are only 1-12 ATS this season following covers in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. They have lost by an average score of 96.4 to 92.2 in this situation.

The 76ers have either won or played Indiana to within 5 points in 4 of the last 6 meetings. I expect the 76ers to be the more desperate team. Take the points.

4* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Mavericks -12
The defending NBA champs need just one win to clinch a playoff spot. With this being their last home game and with dates against playoff teams Chicago and Atlanta on deck, you can bet they'll go after this game hard.

The Warriors are depleted by injuries and have lost 6 straight and 13 of their last 15 as a result. Their last 6 defeats have come by an average of 16.2 points.

The Mavs are 9-1 in their last 10 home games versus the Warriors with 6 of those wins coming by 13 points or more and 5 coming by 20 points or more. We'll lay the points.

4* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* (TNT) on Suns -2
Sitting a half game behind Utah for the eighth and final playoff spot, the Suns will leave it all on the floor tonight.

Phoenix lost to Oklahoma City last night, but is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a SU loss, 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following an ATS loss and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing without a day of rest.

It is also worth noting that the Suns are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.

The Suns have won 4 of the last 5 in the series overall and 9 in a row at home. We'll bet the Suns.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks +5.5
Two-and-a-half games out of the 8th spot, the Bucks can't afford another loss. We'll get behind this desperate team catching points tonight.

The Bucks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games, and the road team is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Bucks are also 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Indiana. It's also worth noting that the underdog is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Milwaukee has won 3 of its last 4 trips to Indiana with the lone loss in this stretch coming by a single point.

The Pacers have been playing well, but recent history tells us this is the time to fade them. After all, they are 0-12 ATS this season after covering the spread in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. They have lost by an average score of 95.3 to 90.1 in this situation. We'll bet the Bucks.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets -3
The Clippers have won 4 in a row and 12 of 14, have a pair of wins over the Thunder in their last 4 games, have won 2 of 3 versus Denver this season and they're getting 3 points? The books clearly want the money on the Clipps. We won't give in.

The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.

It is also worth noting that the Nuggets are 64-45 ATS under coach Karl in home games when out for revenge for a same season loss to an opponent. The Nugs have won by an average of 7.4 points in this situation.

The Clippers blew out OKC 92-77 in their last game but are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 10 points. Expect this trend to continue. Lay the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on 76ers -3
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by a 111-94 loss to Indiana last month, expect the 76ers to take care of business at home tonight.

This is Philly's last home game of the season, a game it desperately needs as it's fading fast in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

The 76ers opened as a 3.5-point favorite at most books, which is significant because favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent, provided that foe checks in off a home blowout win of 20 points or more, are 38-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have won by an average of 10.1 points.

It is also worth noting that Philly is 26-15 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent over the last 2 seasons.

The Pacers have covered the spread in 3 straight but are only 8-21 ATS after successfully covering the number in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. They've lost by an average of 5.1 points in this spot.

Lastly, the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. We'll lay the points with the home team tonight.

4* NBA SMASH on Rockets -4.5
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, including an embarrassing 15-point loss to Denver Sunday, expect the Rockets to bounce back strong here.

The Rockets know they can't afford another defeat as they try to hold on to the last playoff slot in the West.

Houston has been very strong at home this season. In fact, it is 8-1 ATS in home games following a road loss this season. In addition, it is 8-0 ATS all-time under coach McHale when playing the second game of a back-to-back at home. It has won these games by an average of 8.1 points.

The Nuggets are a lousy 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a win and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games when playing without a day of rest. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Nets +8.5
Motivated by Saturday's loss to Boston and further fueled by losses to Miami in each of the season's first two meetings, including an embarrassing 30-point loss last month, expect the Nets to save face with a strong performance tonight.

Saturday we won with the T-Wolves as we expected them to treat their matchup with the Thunder like Game 7 of the NBA Finals. The same strategy paid off Sunday as the Pistons left it all on the floor against the Bulls. We'll stick with this strategy here.

The Nets may not get up for another game this season, but they'll get up for this one. The Heat, meanwhile, will have a difficult time putting the Nets away by double digits after playing a game Sunday. The Heat are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

The Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.

This is the biggest game remaining on New Jersey's schedule, and I expect them to go after it hard. We'll take the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Pistons +9.5
Motivated by an embarrassing 113-97 home loss to Milwaukee last game, and further fueled by losses in each of the season's first 3 meetings with Chicago, expect the Pistons to show up in a big way here.

This is the biggest game remaining on Detroit's schedule, and similar to Minnesota (who got up for OKC Saturday) it will treat it like Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

Friday's loss to Milwaukee is significant because the Pistons are a near-perfect 9-1 ATS in home games off a home loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. They have actually won by an average score of 104.6 to 99.2 in this situation. Also, the Pistons are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog.

The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and I expect this trend to continue Sunday. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Timberwolves +11
Motivated by 8 straight defeats and 11 consecutive losses to the Thunder, expect the Timberwolves to play some inspired basketball at home tonight.

An injury to Ricky Rubio derailed Minnesota's playoff hopes and now it is dealing with an injury to Kevin Love. Still, the T-Wolves have enough fire power with guys like Derrick Williams, Wesley Johnson, Jose Barea, Michael Beasley and Anthony Randolph to cover this number. With the postseason out of the question, this game will be Minnesota's Super Bowl (so to speak).

The Thunder, meanwhile, will be much more concerned about their next opponent, the Clippers, who defeated them Wednesday.

As I already mentioned, OKC has won 11 straight in the series. However, only 1 of those wins has come by more than 11 points. In addition, Minnesota has either won or lost to the Sonics/Thunder by fewer than 11 points in 8 straight home meetings. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Bucks -4.5
The Bucks need a win tonight for any hope of staying in the playoff hunt. Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by a loss to Detroit in the most recent meeting, expect Milwaukee to take care of business here.

Right away I love the fact that road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that check in off a home defeat and are out for revenge for an upset loss to an opponent are 56-26 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this system have been favored by an average of 5.5 points and have won by an average of 7.2.

In addition, Milwaukee is 30-16 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. It is also 7-1 ATS in its last 8 road games and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record.

The Pistons recorded a 24-point win at Charlotte last night to conclude a 7-day road trip. This is significant because they are 7-22 ATS in their last 29 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. We'll bet the Bucks.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Spurs -5.5
The Spurs basically conceded defeat Monday against the Jazz with coach Pop thinking it was more important for Duncan, Parker and Ginobli to get rest. The trio was back in action last night but clearly didn't take the Bryant-less Lakers as seriously as they should have. Following that embarrassing loss, expect the Spurs to bounce back strong against a team they have owned this season.

The Spurs have clearly been motivated against the Grizzlies, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year. They have won each of this season's three meetings by an average of 9.3 points, winning the lone home meeting by 13.

History is on our side here when you consider that plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points - a good offensive team (scoring 98-102 PPG) against an average offensive team (scoring 92-98 PPG), after scoring 85 points or less - are 40-12 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by 6.3 points on average and have won by 11.6 on average. This system is 20-3 ATS the last 3 seasons.

The Spurs are 24-9-3 ATS in their last 36 games overall, 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 home games, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss, 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS loss.

The Grizzlies are just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. We'll lay the points.

4* NBA SMASH on Grizzlies -5.5
After losing the season's first 2 meetings in Phoenix, expect the Grizzlies to have their revenge at home tonight. They have won 3 of their last 4 at home against the Suns with those wins coming by 17, 7 and 10 points.

Memphis is 23-12 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent - over the last 2 seasons and 52-31 ATS when playing with double revenge under coach Hollins.

I like Memphis tonight because it is the superior defensive squad. It has held 10 straight opponents under the century mark and it has held its last 3 under 90 points. It only gave up 85 to the Clippers last game and that's significant because it is 8-1 ATS after allowing 85 points or less this season. It has won by an average of 8.6 points in this situation. Lay the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Hawks +3.5
This is a letdown spot for the Celtics following last night's big win in Miami. This is also a revenge spot for the Hawks, who lost by 3 at home to the C's last month.

History tells us that Boston's offensive outburst last night sets it up for failure here as it is just 1-11 ATS in home games after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. It has only won these games by an average of 1.8 points.

It's also worth noting that the C's are 11-25 ATS in the 2nd game of a back-to-back over the last 2 seasons. It's losing by an average of 0.4 points in these games.

The Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The Hawks have won 5 of the last 8 meetings in this series, and I like their chances of winning another against Boston tonight.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers -5
Motivated by 4 consecutive defeats and a 7-point loss to New Jersey in the season's first meeting, expect the 76ers to bounce back strong tonight.

Right away I love the fact that plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points - good team outscoring its opponents by 3 points per game or more, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more - are 62-31 ATS since 1996. Team fitting into this system, which is 31-10 ATS the last 5 seasons and 16-5 ATS the last 3 seasons, have been favored by an average of 6.0 points and have won by an average of 8.3.

Philly has lost 4 in a row, but 3 of those losses have come to Miami, Orlando and Boston. Consider that it is 17-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record this season, defeating these foes by an average of 11.9 points. It is also 13-4 ATS versus poor teams that are getting outscored by their opponents by 3 points per game or more this season. It has defeated these foes by an average of 12.9 points.

The 76ers are 18-6 ATS in road games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus the Nets. Those 5 wins have come by an average of 14.2 points.

The Nets are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 home games, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 1-8 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. We'll lay the points.

4* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Trail Blazers -3.5
Off an embarrassing loss at Milwaukee and out to avenge a pair of defeats to Houston, expect the Blazers to bounce back strong at home tonight.

Portland is 30-14 ATS in its last 44 games when out for revenge for 2 consecutive upset losses to an opponent. It has won by an average score of 98.0 to 90.8 in this situation.

The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. Also, they are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing without a day of rest. Lay the number.

4* NBA Super System Smoker on Nuggets -8
Saturday's 112-97 loss at Golden State puts the Nuggets in an extremely profitable situation tonight. Consider that plays on any team out for revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more to an opponent, and checking in off an upset loss by 15 points or more, are 28-9 (76%) ATS the last 5 seasons.

It is also worth noting that the Warriors are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a win of more than 10 points.

The Nuggets have won 6 of their last 7 at home in this series with those 6 wins coming by an average of 15.0 points. We'll lay the number.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies -4
The Grizzlies have won 7 of their last 9 games with wins over the Lakers, Thunder and Heat during this stretch. Keep in mind that these 3 keys wins came by 6, 6 and 15 points respectively. Also, keep in mind that these 3 wins came on the road.

At home, where the Grizzlies are 19-7 on the season, I expect them to continue their strong play against the Clippers.

The Clippers have won the season's first 2 meetings, but both of those came in LA. Rest assured, things will go much differently tonight. The Grizzlies are 51-31 ATS in their last 82 games when playing with double revenge. They are also 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less and 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. We'll lay the number.

4* NBA *BEST BET* on 76ers +4
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats and eager to stay in the Atlantic division race, expect the 76ers to bounce back strong against a team they have dominated this season.

Philly has won each of this season's meetings with Boston by 32 and 13 points respectively. It is also worth noting that it has either won or lost by 4 points or less in 5 of the last 6 and 7 of the last 9 meetings.

Both teams played yesterday, but Philly should be the fresher team as it had 2 days off prior to last night's contest. Boston, meanwhile, will be playing its 4th game in 5 days. The Celtics are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 games when playing without a day of rest and 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.

The fact Boston enters off a double-digit win is also significant because it is just 24-49-2 ATS in its last 75 games following a win of more than 10 points.

The 76ers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and we'll grab the points with them here.

5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year on Celtics +2
This is a major letdown spot for Indiana, which is playing its second game in as many nights following a big win over the Thunder. This is a major bounce back spot for Boston, however, following back-to-back losses and getting called out by coach Doc Rivers following Thursday's loss to Chicago.

"I had to use two timeouts ... to remind us that we are actually having an NBA game tonight," Rivers said. "I thought this was the worst loss for us this year the way we approached the game."

I fully expect this veteran squad to respond.

The fact Boston has had a day to gear up is huge considering it is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on 1 days' rest. The Pacers, meanwhile, are 11-27 ATS in their last 38 games when playing without a day of rest.

It is also worth noting that the Celtics are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less while the Pacers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less.

Also, Indiana is 0-9 ATS this season after covering the number in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. It is losing by an average score of 95.8 to 89.1 in this situation.

Boston will have fresher legs and it will be the hungrier side tonight. Take the Celtics.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Thunder -155
Motivated by losing consecutive games for just the 2nd time all season, expect the Thunder to bounce back strong tonight.

Following back-to-back defeats on Jan. 2-3, the Thunder rebounded with a 15-point win over Houston. I expect them to take care of business again versus an Indiana squad they have defeated by 24 and 4 in the last 2 meetings.

I like the Thunder on the point spread but love them on the money line at this price. OKC is 24-11 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 104.8 to 99.4 in this situation. It is also 16-5 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, winning by an average score of 102.3 to 95.4 in this situation.

Indiana is 11-22 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons, 6-20 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons and 1-8 ATS after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season.

The Thunder are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less and 39-17-1 ATS in their last 57 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or fewer. We'll take the Thunder.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards +7.5
Fueled by 3 consecutive defeats and a 2-point home loss to Detroit on Mar. 26, expect the Wizards to give the Pistons a game tonight.

Washington blew a 13-point lead in the Mar. 26 meeting and was defeated on a Rodney Stuckey 20-foot jumper with 0.2 seconds remaining. That can't be sitting well with the Wizards, who won 98-77 in Detroit in the season's first meeting. In fact, Washington has either won or lost by fewer than tonight's posted spread in 3 straight and 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Washington's defense hasn't been very good in its last 2 games, but recent history says it will do something about that tonight. The Wiz are 13-3 ATS after 2 straight games allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher over the last 3 seasons. The Wizards are only losing these games by an average of 0.1 points.

It is also important to note that the Pistons are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the points.

4* NBA SMASH on Mavericks -6
Motivated by Monday's ugly 19-point home loss to the Clippers, expect the defending NBA champs to bounce back strong versus a fatigued Memphis squad playing its 3rd game in as many days.

The fact Dallas is coming off an embarrassing loss and lost in Memphis by 11 on Feb. 29 sets up a strong system. Consider that plays on any team out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent of 10 points or more, provided the "play on" team is also coming off an upset loss by 15 points or more, are 27-8 ATS the last 5 seasons.

The Grizzlies are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The Mavericks are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take the Mavs.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Wizards +6
Motivated by back-to-back losses and further fueled by defeats in each of the season's first 2 meetings with Indiana, expect the Wizards to give the Pacers all they want and more here.

Indiana just played last night and used a lot of energy while mounting a late comeback. Riding high from than win, and with OKC on deck, I expect a bit of a letdown from the Pacers.

The Pacers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, 10-27 ATS in their last 37 games when playing without a day of rest, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record.

The Wizards, meanwhile, are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

It is also worth noting that the home team is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings, and the Pacers are 3-7 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Washington. Take the points.

5* NBA Game of the Week on Warriors +7.5
Hungry to end a 5-game skid and to avoid being swept by Memphis, expect the Warriors to play some inspired ball tonight.

Off last night's upset win over the West-best Thunder, and with games against defending champion Dallas and reigning Eastern Conference champion Miami up next, I'm expecting a letdown from the Grizzlies here.

The losses have started to pile up for the Warriors, but only one defeat during their current losing streak has come by more than 8 points. It is also worth noting that Golden State is 9-0 ATS all-time under coach Jackson in road games following 2 or more consecutive losses. The Warriors have actually won by an average score of 102.3 to 100.6 in this situation.

In addition, the Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. We'll take Golden State.

4* NCAA Championship SMASH on Kansas +6.5
Kentucky has won each of its NCAA Tournament games by at least 8 points and defeated the Jayhawks by 10 points as a 6.5-point favorite earlier this season. Yet, the Wildcats are just laying 6.5 points here. The books clearly want the Kentucky-loving public laying those points because they believe Kansas can take the Wildcats right down to the wire. I agree entirely.

First of all, the Jayhawks shot just 33.9% from the field in the first meeting. They won't shoot that poorly here. They aren't supposed to win. All the pressure is on Kentucky, and that allows Kansas to play free and easy.

The Kansas defense has been unbelievable in this tournament. It has held its five foes to 59.2 points on just 35.5% shooting. Kentucky's "D" hasn't been nearly that good. Its foes have scored 71.6 points on 41.5% shooting in the dance.

Kentucky has been explosive offensively, averaging 84.2 points in the tourney. So the fact odds makers have set a total of 138, 9.5 points less than the number set for the first meeting, tells us they are expecting Kansas' defense to slow down the Wildcats.

The total is significant because Kansas is 11-4 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season. Kentucky is 6-13 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.

It is also significant that Kansas is coming off an upset win because coach Self's teams are 14-4 ATS off an upset win since 1997. His teams have won by an average score of 77.9 to 65.4 in this situation.

It is also worth noting that the Wildcats are only 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +8
This is a sandwich game for the Thunder, who are coming off a big win over Chicago and have a big game in Miami up next. Meanwhile, this is a highly motivated spot for the Grizzlies, who have lost each of the season's first three meetings with OKC.

Memphis is a phenomenal 27-12 ATS in its last 39 games when out for revenge for 2 straight losses to an opponent in which it allowed its foe to score 100 points or more. Memphis has only lost by an average of 1.1 points in this situation.

The Grizzlies are also on a 52-34 ATS run as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 32-13-1 ATS in their last 46 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 11-1 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Grizzlies have won by an average score of 98.6 to 95.6 in this situation.

It is also worth noting that plays against home favorites in the second game of a back-to-back in April are 165-105 (61.1%) since 1996. These teams have been favored by 6.7 points on average but have only won by an average of 3.7. This system is 21-10 (67.7% the last 3 seasons.

The Thunder are also 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win of more than 10 points and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NBA Southwest division. Take the points.

5* NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on Magic -5.5
Checking in off back-to-back defeats, the Magic will be hungry to run up the score on the Nuggets this evening.

The Magic are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a loss and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. Prior to Friday's home loss to Dallas, Orlando had won 6 of its last 7 at home with those 6 wins coming by an average of 12.3 points. Its home dominance of Denver also can't be ignored.

The Magic have won 13 of their last 14 at home in the series with those 13 wins coming by an average of 11.2 points.

It also doesn't bode well for Denver that it checks in off a SU win and cover. The Nuggets are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win of more than 10 points, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. Those 7 defeats have come by an average of 10.0 points.

We'll lay the points with the Magic as all signs point to a double-digit win.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Jazz +6
Motivated by back-to-back defeats and further fueled by a 2-point loss to the Clippers last month, expect the Jazz to give L.A. all it wants and more tonight.

Both of these teams played last night and recent history favors the Jazz in this back-to-back spot. In fact, they Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games when playing without a day of rest while the Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing without a days' rest.

The Clippers have not proven they can be trusted laying points. They are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Clippers are also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win while the Jazz are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss.

Utah has played better ball than the Clippers this month and shouldn't be catching this many points. Take the Jazz.

5* Final Four *BEST BET* on Ohio State -2.5
The Buckeyes lost to Kansas in Lawrence by 11 points back in December, but Jared Sullinger didn't play in that contest. On a neutral floor and with Sullinger in the lineup, I fully expect the Buckeyes to have their revenge.

Consider that Ohio State is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 road/neutral court games when out for revenge for a same season loss. The Buckeyes are also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as a favorite and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. The Jayhawks, meanwhile, are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. the Big Ten.

The fact Kansas enters off a cover actually bodes well for the Buckeyes. That's because KU is 5-12 ATS after a game in which it covered the spread this season, including 0-4 ATS in its last 4 in this situation.

Kansas has a few nice weapons (Thomas Robinson, Tyshawn Taylor, Elijah Johnson) but Ohio State has more guys (Jared Sullinger, Deshaun Thomas, William Buford and Aaron Craft) that are capable of putting the team on their back. I expect Craft's defense on Taylor to be the key to a Buckeyes win and cover.

3* Final Four SMASH on Louisville +9
Louisville played Kentucky to a 7-point game Dec. 31 while holding the Wildcats to a season-low 29.8 percent shooting. Kentucky is a better team than it was then, but so is Louisville.

In that contest, the Cards hounded the Kentucky guards and forced them into 21 turnovers. I expect Louisville's pressure defense to once again give the Wildcats problems.

Kentucky was dominant on the glass in the first meeting but the Cards still managed to cover the spread. In fact, they are 6-0 ATS in road/neutral court games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game - this season.

Louisville is also 6-0 ATS in road/neutral floor games against non-conference foes this season and 8-0 ATS in all tournament games this season.

It is also worth noting that Louisville is 34-15 ATS all-time under coach Pitino when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent.

All the pressure is on Kentucky here, and the Cards will draw plenty of confidence from having played the Wildcats tough earlier this season. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Hawks -3
Motivated by back-to-back defeats, and further fueled by an embarrassing 17-point loss in New York last month, expect the Hawks to bounce back strong this evening.

The road hasn't been too kind to the Knicks. They are 9-15 when playing away from Madison Square Garden this season and enter tonight's contest with 7 losses in their last 9 road contests. Those 7 road defeats have come by an average of 9.7 points and all of them have come by at least 4 points.

The Hawks are a rock solid 16-8 at home on the season and check in with 6 wins in their last 8 home contests. Those 6 wins, one of which was a 7-point victory against the Thunder, have come by an average of 7.0 points.

The banged-up Knicks caught Orlando napping last game, but they won't take the Hawks by surprise here. The Knicks are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games, and I expect their road struggles to continue.

5* NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Heat -8
Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats and with 2 days' rest on their side, expect the Heat to show no mercy when they take on the team that beat them in last year's NBA Finals.

Miami won by 11 in Dallas on Christmas and it will be poised to send another message here.

Right away you have to like the fact that plays on home favorites off a road loss by 10 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record, are 55-23 (70.5%) ATS the last 5 seasons. I also like the fact the Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

The Mavs have struggled winning just 2 of their last 10 away from home and going 3-7 ATS in those games. They are also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing with only 1 day of rest. Expect Dallas' road struggles to continue against a Miami squad that is 20-2 at home and has won those games by an average of 11.9 points.

It is also worth noting that the Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games while the Mavericks are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 Thursday games.

With these 6 ATS trends and a strong system on our side, I'll grab the Heat in this highly motivated spot.

5* NBA Game of the Month on Raptors +4
Motivated by back-to-back losses to Chicago and Orlando and further fueled by a 9-game losing streak to the Nuggets, expect the Raptors to take care of business at home tonight.

Toronto has quietly been playing some very good basketball. Prior to a disappointing performance against Orlando last game, it had defeated the Knicks by 17 and played the Bulls to a 1-point game on the road.

Denver is coming off a big win over the Bulls, which spells letdown for it tonight. Plus, the Nuggets really haven't been playing that well. They haven't won consecutive games since early this month, and, prior to beating Chicago, lost by 19 and 17 points at Utah and Minnesota. The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 1 day of rest.

The Raptors, meanwhile, are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on 1 day of rest, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Western Conference, 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. Also, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

The Nuggets are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 and I'm not hesitating to fade them tonight. Take Toronto and best of luck.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks -1.5
Motivated by back-to-back defeats to Indiana and New York as well as a pair of losses to Atlanta in the season's first two meetings, expect the Bucks to bounce back strong tonight.

Milwaukee, which trails NY by 2.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East, knows it must take care of business at home the rest of the way out. The Bucks get 7 of their next 9 at home.

This is also a look ahead spot for Atlanta, which has a big home game against the Bulls tomorrow night.

The Bucks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. It is also worth noting that the favorite is 17-8-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings.

The Hawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points.

Under coach Drew, Atlanta is just 14-28 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins. It is losing by an average of 3.0 points in this situation. The Bucks, meanwhile, are 30-15 ATS in home games under coach Skiles after 2 or more consecutive losses. Milwaukee has won by an average of 5.6 points in this situation. Bet the Bucks.

4* NIT SMASH on Massachusetts +2.5
UMass is being undervalued here. The Minutemen have been underdogs in 5 straight games and are 4-1 in those contests with the only defeat being a half-point ATS loss to St. Bonaventure.

They have upset wins on the road over Mississippi State, Seton Hall and Drexel in this tournament. That resume is more impressive than the one Stanford enters with - home wins over Cleveland State, Illinois State and Nevada.

Stanford has almost been a dead fade when odds makers have projected them to be in a close game. Consider that the Cardinal are only 4-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. They have lost these contests by an average of 3.4 points. The Cardinal are also 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a win of more than 20 points and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS victory.

The Minutemen are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. We'll take UMass.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +7
The Bobcats will be lacking no motivation here following 3 consecutive defeats. Plus, this is a bad spot for Boston, which will be playing the second game of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.

The Celtics are just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games when playing without a day of rest. They are also 1-8 ATS in road games when playing the second game of a back-to-back this season. They have lost these games by an average score of 93.7 to 81.1.

The Celtics have also been a poor investment on the road at 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games. They are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

The Bobcats likely won't have to come up with a bunch of turnovers to cover this number either. Consider that Boston is 0-10 ATS in road games in the second half of the season the last 2 seasons versus teams who average 7 or less steals per game. The Celtics have lost to these teams by an average score of 93.7 to 84.1.

The underdog is 17-4 ATS in the last 21 meetings, and the Celtics are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Charlotte won 2 of those 4 straight up. We'll bet the Bobcats.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Grizzlies +7
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, and losses in both of this season's prior matchups with the Lakers, expect Memphis to show well tonight.

The Grizzlies played Saturday while the Lakers rested, but the Grizzlies are 22-4 ATS in their last 26 games when playing without a day of rest and the Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing with 1 day of rest.

The Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points.

The Grizzlies lost 116-111 at home to the Lakers in double OT on March 13 without stars Zach Randolph and Rudy Gay. With these two back in the lineup, Memphis should, at the very least, be able to take LA down to the wire again.

4* Elite 8 SMASH on Baylor +8
Baylor has been a tremendous investment in the underdog role under coach Drew at 70-51 ATS. Look for the Baylor Bears to keep this one within the number Sunday.

The value clearly lies with Baylor here as it enters off a hard-fought win over Xavier in which it didn't cover the spread. Kentucky, meanwhile, has rolled in back-to-back wins and covers over Iowa State and Indiana. Those performances are sure to get the attention of the public and odds makers are well aware of that fact.

One thing you haven't wanted to do is go against Baylor following an ATS loss. That's because the Bears are on a 5-0 ATS run in this situation and have won these contests by an average 14.8 points. The Bears are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and 11-5 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games as an underdog.

The Wildcats, meanwhile, are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite and just 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.

Baylor has the size and athleticism to match up with Kentucky. Plus, it has been unfazed when playing in neutral court/road games this season, posting a 16-4 record. Bet Baylor.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks +3.5
Motivated by back-to-back double-digit defeats to the Lakers and Spurs, expect the defending NBA champs to take their frustrations out on a team they have owned. The Mavs have won 4 in a row and 7 of their last 9 against Houston.

Dallas just played last night, but it is an impressive 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when its starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Mavericks are also 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games as a road underdog, 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 games as an underdog and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less. The Rockets are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.

The Mavericks are 16-7 ATS in the last 23 meetings and 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Houston. We'll take the points.

3* Elite 8 SMASH on Syracuse +3
The value clearly lies with Syracuse here. The Orange barely escaped Wisconsin while the Buckeyes won rather easily against Cincinnati. Naturally, the public is jumping on the Buckeyes following that performance. We won't do the same.

First of all, Ohio State split with Wisconsin this season, losing by 3 points and winning by 6. With this in mind, we can make the claim that the Buckeyes aren't much better than the Badgers.

Secondly, Wisconsin needed 14 3-point makes to stick with the Orange. I don't see Ohio State making half that many. The Buckeyes only average 6 per game on 34.8% shooting. The Orange will make sure Ohio State's front line doesn't beat them, and I don't think the Buckeyes can make enough 3's to get the job done.

Syracuse is 25-11 ATS all-time under coach Boeheim as a neutral court underdog or pickem. It has won these games by an average score of 73.4 to 72.5.

The Orange are also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less while the Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Lastly, the Buckeyes are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. We'll take the points.

4* Elite 8 *BEST BET* on Florida -1
One thing you don't want to make a habit of is going against the Gators when odds makers anticipate a close game. That's because they are 9-2 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons, winning these contests by an average score of 71.9 to 66.2.

Louisville plays good defense, but it won't be able to keep Florida from getting open 3-point looks in transition. Florida's guards are just too good. The Gators are among the best 3-point shooting teams in the country, averaging 10 makes per game while shooting them at a 38% clip. I expect Florida's edge from beyond the arc to be the difference here.

The Gators are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Take Florida.

5* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Kansas -8
Odds makers clearly want the money on NC State by installing the red-hot Wolfpack as nearly a double-digit dog. We won't take the bait. Kansas is the more talented team, and it will be very focused here after getting a scare by Purdue. The Jayhawks will draw further motivation from recent shortcomings. It was knocked out of last year's Big Dance by VCU and it hasn't forgotten. I expect that loss to be the driving force before a decisive victory by the Jayhawks tonight.

Taking Kansas following a game in which it failed to cover the spread has produced an 11-4 ATS mark this season. The Jayhawks, who have won by an average score of 72.8 to 60.7 in this situation, are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.

Kansas is also an impressive 18-7 ATS in its last 25 road/neutral floor games after a close win by 3 points or less. It has won by an average score of 78.1 to 64.2 in this situation.

NC State is solid defensively, but KU is 13-6 ATS versus good defensive teams that hold their opponents to 42% shooting or worse this season. The Jayhawks have defeated these clubs by an average score of 74.6 to 57.6.

NC State, meanwhile, is just 4-12 ATS versus very good defensive teams that hold their foes to 39% shooting or worse over the last two seasons. It has lost these contests by an average score of 76.1 to 66.4. Take Kansas and best of luck.

4* Sweet 16 SMASH (TBS) on Ohio +10.5
UNC is likely Kendall Marshall, and he won't be himself even if he does try to play. Without Marshall, the Tar Heels find themselves at a disadvantage against an Ohio squad that is forcing more than 17 turnovers a game and ranks fourth in the country in steals (9.3). Without Marshall, I expect UNC to have some turnover issues tonight.

Ohio has been taking excellent care of the rock and is a perfect 6-0 ATS in road/neutral court contests after 3 straight games of committing 11 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.

It is also worth noting that the Bobcats are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games, 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.

The Tar Heels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Mid-American Conference.

Ohio played Louisville to a 5-point on the road earlier this season and has upset a pair of power conference teams in the first two rounds of this tournament.

UNC has the superior front court, but I expect those players won't have as many good looks without Marshall at full strength. We'll take the points.

5* NBA *Friday Night Feast* on Raptors +5.5
Motivated by 3 consecutive defeats, including an embarrassing 19-point loss at New York Mar. 20, expect the Raptors to give the Knicks all they want and more tonight.

Prior to that loss, Toronto had defeated the Knicks by 5 points in the season's first meeting and only lost by 3 points in the second meeting. In other words, the Raptors clearly have what it takes to get the "W" in this highly motivated spot.

The Knicks have not shown that they can be trusted in the road chalk at 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite. Plus, the Raptors are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with 1 day of rest.

Lastly, the underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. We'll take the points.

5* Sweet 16 *BEST BET* (TBS) on Marquette -2
After back-to-back blowout wins over double-digit seeds, I expect Florida to be in for a rude awakening as it takes a major step up in competition tonight. The Golden Eagles were tested by Murray State last time out, so I fully expect them to be on their game.

With the total currently at 146.5, odds makers are expecting some points to be scored in this contest. History suggests this high number indicates the odds are in Marquette's favor. Consider that Marquette is 8-0 ATS in neutral court games when the total is 145 to 149.5 since 1997. It has won these games by an average score of 78.9 to 64.1.

In addition, the Golden Eagles are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less.

Florida isn't the same team without Chandler Parsons, and that has been apparent all season. I'm not going to let what they've done against two inferior teams in the Big Dance change my opinion.

The Golden Eagles are on a mission to get to the Elite 8 after losing in the Sweet 16 last year. We'll lay the points.

4* Sweet 16 SMASH (CBS) on Cincinnati +7.5
It's hard not to like the Bearcats catching this many points considering they are 11-6 SU and 13-4 ATS when playing away from home this season. Ohio State is just 11-5 SU and 8-8 ATS in road/neutral court games on the year.

The Bearcats have been a terrific investment down the stretch at 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 9-1 ATS in road/neutral floor games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Cats have won these contests by an average score of 66.4 to 64.2.

It is also worth noting that the Buckeyes are only 6-13 ATS in their last 19 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.

Ohio State was pushed to the limit by Gonzaga, and now it is up against an even more physical team. These points should come in handy in what is expected to be a defensive-minded game.