3* Big Sky Game of the Week on Southern Utah +

We are getting a lot of value on Southern Utah at home in this matchup with Northern Arizona. The Lumberjacks have covered the spread in four of their last six games, while the Thunderbirds have a 2-9 ATS record this season. I think those records have caused the oddsmakers have severely over compensate for this game.

Statistically Northern Arizona and Southern Utah are very even. The Lumberjacks are averaging 63.9 points per game on the road while surrendering an average of 72.6 points per game in those matchups. That is very comparable to Southern Utah's 61 points scored per game and 75.5 points surrendered per game when playing at home. Both teams also average similar numbers in turnovers. It is the Thunderbirds that have an advantage from the free throw line making 82 percent of their attempts at home, while the Lumberjacks average 71.9 percent from the line when playing on the road.

Northern Arizona has not performed well on the road this season. They have a 2-8 record in their 10 road games, with both of those wins coming against teams with a losing record. The only blowout win the Lumberjacks have this season came San Diego Christian College, a weak opponent from the Golden State Athletic Conference. The only reason they are coming into this matchup with more wins than the Thunderbirds is because of their incredibly soft schedule.

Southern Utah has won the last two meetings between these teams both straight up and against the spread. This will be the first time all season that the Thunderbirds have played back-to-back home games, and I think they will get a big boost in production not having to travel between games. Northern Arizona is 2-11 ATS when coming off a home game and 12-25 ATS when they faced a conference opponent in their previous matchup. This game should be close, and I expect the Thunderbirds to be in a position to win this game in the end.

5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on the Rockets -

The Celtics are in a horrible slump right now. They have lost 11 of their last 12 games. Boston is coming off a five game road trip, and I think they will have a bad letdown performance in their first game back home. This will be Boston

3* Total Annihilator on Hawks/Grizzlies UNDER

The total on this game is set far too high considering how these teams have been playing recently. In their last five games the Atlanta Hawks have averaged a mere 90 points per game. They have played well defensively during that stretch holding opponents to just 90 points per game. They are up against a Grizzlies team that is not known for putting up big numbers on the scoreboard. Memphis averages 96.2 points per game, and I expect the Grizzlies to struggle to match that number in this matchup since the Hawks are playing so well defensively right now.

The under is a perfect 8-0 in the Grizzlies last eight home games against Southeast division opponents. It is also 29-15 when Memphis is coming off a win by six points or less. The Grizzlies squeaked by Phoenix in their last game winning by just five points. They uncharacteristically gave up 99 points, and I expect to see a much stronger defensive performance in this matchup, especially since Memphis is playing with a day of rest. The Grizzlies opponents have averaged over 101 points per game on the season, and they have held those opponents to just 97.5 points per game on the year. They are poised to improve on that number in this game since the Hawks are having so many problems scoring points right now.

This matchup fits into a system to play on the under when the total is set between 190 and 199.5 points, and one of the teams (Atlanta) is coming off a game allowing 80 points or less when they are facing an opponent that has scored 100 points or more over in four or more consecutive games. This system is 46-17 (73%) in favor of the under. The fact that Memphis has been scoring so many points has created a lot of value on the under in this matchup.

4* No Brainer on Marist +

I don't think Manhattan is as good as their 11-3 record, and they should struggle to cover such a large spread against this underrated Marist team. The Red Foxes got off to a slow start to the season, but they have really turned things around recently winning five of their last six games. The Jaspers will have to cover this number without their leading scorer George Beamon who is out with a shoulder injury. Beamon averages over 20 points per game and 6.6 rebounds per game, so his production will certainly be missed.

Marist has a very underrated defense. They are allowing 70.1 points per game, but that has come against opponents whose scoring average is over 72 points per game. The Jaspers on the other hand have allowed 71 points per game against opponents whose scoring average is only 69.8 points per game. To win by a double-digit margin you have to dominate in the key statistical categories. Manhattan has proved to be a poor rebounding team, especially when playing at home. They have a -5 figure for rebounding margin in home games which is another indicator that the Jaspers are overrated.

This matchup fits into a system to play on road underdogs of 10 points or more, like Marist, when they are revenging a home loss against an opponent, and they are playing their second road game in three days. This system is 121-72 (63%) against the spread over the last five seasons. When these teams met earlier this year the Jaspers had Beamon in the lineup and won by 11 points. Without him I don't think they will even come close to that number. In their last game against Quinnipiac, Beamon played just five minutes and Manhattan ended up losing the game straight up and against the spread. Adjusting to Beamon's absence is going to take some time before the Jaspers can get things back on track. In the mean time we will take the points with Marist.

3* Oddsmakers Error on SIU-Edwardsville +

This line is quite a bit larger than it should be for two evenly matched teams. The Cougars are averaging 71.4 points per game, which is right in line with Tennessee Tech at 73.2 points per game. The Golden Eagles have definitely faced the softer schedule with their opponents surrendering an average of 74.2 points per game on the season.

It is the same story on the defensive end of the court. Tennessee Tech's opponents have only averaged 69.6 points per game, and defensively the Golden Eagles have surrendered 69.6 points per game. The Cougars on the other hand have faced a schedule where their opponents average 74.2 points per game, and I think their stronger schedule will have them well prepared for this conference road game against the Golden Eagles.

Tennessee Tech is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games when coming off a win. I think that trend continues in this game because Edwardsville is a much better team than this line is indicating. They are evenly matched in turnovers, and when you factor in strength of schedule these teams are also even in scoring and in points surrendered this season. I think both of these teams have a legitimate chance to win the game, and getting spotted this many points is simply too good to pass up.

5* C-USA Game of the Year on Florida Int. +

This is simply too many points for the Golden Panthers to be receiving in today's matchup against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs. The Panthers are averaging 73.6 points per game this season, and they should easily be able to keep pace with the Bulldogs in scoring. Defensively Louisiana Tech has been decent, but I don't think they are as good as the numbers their statistics tell thanks to a very soft schedule.

The Bulldogs offensive numbers are also artificially inflated. Their opponents have allowed an average of almost 77 points per game, which makes the Panthers one of the better defensive teams Louisiana Tech has faced this season. Florida International has played well on the road this year, and I like their chances to keep this game within single-digits against the Bulldogs.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system to play on the Golden Panthers. You should play against favorites like Louisiana Tech when they are coming off a win by 20 points or more over a conference rival, and they have won 80 percent or more of their games on the season and are playing against a team that has won 51 to 60 percent of its games like Florida International. This system is 36-11 (77%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

5* Atlantic Division Game of the Month on Knicks -

The Knicks have been on fire in the New Year, and this line is giving far too much credit to Philadelphia. New York has won four of their last five games straight up, and covered the spread in all five of those games. Philadelphia on the other hand has lost three in a row both straight up and against the spread. The 76ers are showing no signs of life, while New York does not even begin to resemble the team that lost 13 of their first 16 games this season.

The Knicks should be able to score at-will against this soft 76ers defense. Philadelphia is allowing an average of 111.2 points per game this season, and they get no benefit from home court advantage where they have surrendered 111.9 points per game. The Knicks defense on the other hand has been solid, especially recently. Over their last five games New York has held its opponents to a mere 92 points per game.

The Knicks have been a good team to back on the road recently. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games when their opponent has a losing record at home. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven games when playing with a day of rest. Philadelphia is playing in a back-to-back situation after getting blown out by a double-digit margin at home last night against Detroit.

3* No Doubt Rout on Long Beach State -

The Long Beach State 49ers have played a very tough schedule, so I won't hold their 4-11 record against them. Besides, Cal Davis is not coming into this game with a record that looks any better at 5-11 on the season. The 49ers have faced six teams that are currently ranked, or have been ranked at one point this season.

The Aggies have been horrible this year. They are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games overall, which includes a 1-6 ATS record in their last seven road games. UC-Davis is also 0-1 in conference play, and 0-4 ATS against Big West opponents dating back to last season. The 49ers on the other hand have posted a 6-2 ATS record in their last eight games against teams winning 40 percent of their games or less.

This game should end up being a blowout in favor of Long Beach State. The UC-Davis defense has surrendered 78.7 points per game overall and 83 points per game when playing on the road. The Aggies have not done a very good job of scoring points on the road to keep those games close. They are scoring 69 points per game and have a 2-7 record in road games this season. Their average margin of defeat in those matchups is over 14 points.

4* Summit League Game of the Week on S. Dakota +

This game has blowout written all over it. The Coyotes are averaging 86 points per game at home this season and they have a 4-1 record in those games. Denver on the other hand comes into this matchup averaging a mere 62.2 points per game when playing on the road. The Pioneers also have a 3-6 record in road games this season.

South Dakota is 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Summit League opponents. The Coyotes are not a small home dog very often, but when they are they have been a great team to back. South Dakota is 7-0 ATS as a home underdog of six points or less over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Denver Pioneers have a 17-34 ATS record when playing on the road after two consecutive non-conference games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system that favors South Dakota. You should play against road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Denver after allowing 60 points or less when they are playing against an opponent that has scored 75 points or more two straight games. This system is a 34-12 (74%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

4* Total Dominator on Magic/Kings OVER

There should be no shortage of scoring between the Magic and Kings tonight. Orlando has been horrible defensively when playing on the road, allowing an average of 102.1 points. Meanwhile, the Kings have scored an average of 101.4 points when playing at home. The Kings are also a soft team defensively which only adds value to the over. Sacramento has surrendered an average of 105 points per game overall this season.

Over their last five games Sacramento has averaged 108.8 points. There defense has been horrible in those games, allowing an average of 112.6 points per game. The Magic have not been scoring a lot of points recently, and I think that has forced the oddsmakers to set this total much lower than it should be. Even a team like Orlando should score a lot of points against Sacramento's non-existent defense.

The Kings have gone over the total in nine of their last 10, and the oddsmakers have still not set the bar high enough in this matchup. The over is 12-4 in Sacramento's games against teams who are called for 21 or less fouls, and 24-13 against poor pressure defense teams that are forcing 14 or less turnovers per game. The over is also 5-1 in Orlando's last six games against a team with a losing record and 5-1 in their last six head-to-head meetings between these teams.

3* No Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -

The Houston Rockets are going for seven consecutive wins over Atlanta tonight, and I still don't think the oddsmakers have realized the gap in talent between these teams. The last time they met, Atlanta was not even close to beating Houston losing by almost 30-points. That was back when the Hawks had center Al Horford, and Houston was without James Harden. Atlanta is struggling recently losing three of their last four games, and in this rematch they will be without Horford, while the Rockets will have Harden in the lineup.

Over their last five games Atlanta has averaged a mere 91.8 points per game. I expect them to struggle to keep up with this Houston team that is averaging 105.9 points per game on the road this season. Atlanta has not received a lot of benefit from home court advantage when these teams face off. The Rockets are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings when the Hawks are playing at home.

This game fits into a very profitable system to make a play on Houston. You should play on road teams like the Rockets when they are coming off a home win by 10 points or more, and they are a good team that has won 60 to 75 percent of their games on the season, and are facing a marginal team that was won 51 to 60% of their games. This system has a 47-20 (70%) record against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Main Event on Fairfield +

The Stags are a much better team than their 3-12 record indicates, and I like their chances to play a close game with Iona. The Gaels have a losing record of 6-7 this year, and they have lost five of their last six coming into this game. Fairfield may not be winning games either, but they are coming off a close matchup with St. Peters and their confidence has to be high knowing they are facing an Iona team allowing over 80 points per game on the season.

Fairfield has played well defensively this season. They are holding opponents well below their scoring average, allowing just 68.9 points per game. They have allowed those opponents to shoot just 39.8 percent from the field. The Stags are holding their own on the boards, pulling in 36 rebounds per game, and that will be a big advantage over the Gaels who are pulling in a mere 32 rebounds per game and have a -7 figure in rebounding margin.

This matchup fits into a system to play on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like Fairfield when they have lost three of their last four games and have a win percentage of 20 percent or less on the season when they are playing a team with a losing record. This system is 29-7 (81%) against the spread. The Stags should be able to compete with the Gaels, and I think they will keep this game very close.

4* No Brainer on Marquette +

I don't think another team in the country has played as difficult of a schedule as the Marquette Golden Eagles. They may have six losses already, but those six opponents have a combined 80-10 record this season. Five of those six teams are currently ranked, or have been ranked at one point in the year. That hasn't stopped the Golden Eagles from playing in some very close games, and I expect the same result in this matchup with Xavier.

Marquette is holding opponents to 61.5 points per game this season. They are easily one of the best defensive teams in the Big East, and they should have no problem shutting down the Musketeers. Xavier is on a seven game win streak, and that has the oddsmakers giving them way too much credit. In the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams the Golden Eagles have a 4-1 ATS record.

This game fits into a very profitable system to make a play on Marquette. You should play against a favorite like Xavier when coming off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival when they have won 80 percent or more of their games on the season and they are facing a team that has won 51 to 60 percent of their games. This system identifies teams being overvalued by the oddsmakers, and it is resulted in a 94-55 (63%) ATS record over the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on UL-Monroe +

Texas Arlington is coming off back-to-back upset losses as a favorite. ULM on the other hand is off an upset win as an underdog, and I think the Warhawks are the better team in this matchup. They have played a tough schedule this year facing two teams ranked in the top 10, as well as very difficult road games against LSU and Ole Miss.

ULM should have no problem getting points on the board in this game since they face on of the worst defenses in the Sun Belt Conference. The Mavericks are allowing an average of 80 points per game this season against opponents whose scoring average is only 72.8 points per game. I think ULM is a much better team than they appear statistically. The Warhawks have allowed 73.4 points per game, but their opponents offensive average is 78.2 points per game.

Texas-Arlington is 1-9 ATS in home games after playing a game at home in their previous outing. They are also 4-12 ATS after playing a game as a favorite over the last two seasons. The Warhawks on the other hand are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall, and 6-2 ATS when coming off a performance scoring more than 90 points. Louisiana-Monroe is the better team, and they should play a good game against Texas-Arlington with a chance to pull off the upset in the end.

3* No Doubt Rout on Missouri State PICK

This is a very lopsided matchup, and I think this line is giving Bradley far too much credit for playing on their home court. At 11-3 on the season Missouri State is easily the better team in this game. They average 10 points per game more than the Braves, and I don

5* Eastern Conference Game of the Week on Pistons +

Toronto is coming off back-to-back losses against two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Those games put an end to their win streak, and I think it will be hard for the Raptors to recover since they are playing in a back-to-back situation. Now Toronto has to face a Pistons team that is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games against Atlantic division opponents.

Detroit is coming off a strong defensive performance last night, holding New York to just 89 points. If not for a rare poor shooting performance it is a game the Pistons would have won. They should have no problem bouncing back against this Toronto team that is surrendering 99.3 points per game at home this season. The Raptors are scoring a mere 91.4 points per game over their last five games, and their poor defensive play will cost them tonight. The Pistons come into this matchup scoring 99.3 points per game on the road.

This game fits into a very profitable system for a play on Detroit. You should take road underdogs like the Pistons after being beaten by the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, and they have won 25 to 40 percent of their games in the season. This system identifies teams the oddsmakers are undervaluing, and it has led to a 162-102 (61%) record against the spread.

4* Heavy Hitter on Providence +

The Hoyas have not lived up to the hype this season. They have three losses, and have yet to play a good game against a talented team. Their win over VCU is not that impressive since the Rams have also played a soft schedule and they have a bad loss to UNI this year. Providence on the other hand has played several close games against good teams. Their loss to Villanova was hard to swallow, but the Friars were playing in a letdown spot after dropping back-to-back games in overtime against their last two opponents.

The Friars may have five losses on the season, but those five opponents have a combined 55-16 record. They have played three ranked opponents this year, so their difficult schedule should have them well prepared to play host against the overrated Hoyas. I don

3* Oddsmakers Error on St Peter's +

This matchup has upset written all over it. Fairfield is simply put, a bad team this year. Their 3-11 record is quite embarrassing considering they have played a fairly soft schedule. The biggest problem for the Stags is a lack of scoring options. They are averaging 60.9 points per game this year, and shooting a mere 38.1 percent from the field. That is a big issue when your defense is allowing almost 70 points per game.

St Peters has several key statistical advantages in this game. The Peacocks have been a much better ball control team, averaging just 13 turnovers per game to 15 from the Stags. They are also averaging 66.5 points per game on the road with 43.1 percent shooting from the field. The biggest advantage in this game will come on the free throw line. The Stags have a very serious issue with getting into foul trouble. They average 25 personal fouls per game, and they won

4* Vegas Insider on Sacramento Kings +

Portland had an incredible run to open the season, but it seems like reality may be starting to kick in. The Blazers have lost three of their last five games straight up, and eight of their last 10 against the spread. The oddsmakers refuse to give up on Portland listing them as a five point favorite on the road against a Kings team that has shown a lot of improvement recently. Sacramento may not have a great record this year, but they have covered the spread in three of their last five games which included matchups against the Heat, Spurs and Rockets.

The Kings are a team that steps up their level of play depending on who their opponent is. A quick glance at the schedule shows that they have not only covered the spread against the three previously mentioned opponents, but also Golden State and Oklahoma City. They have been on fire recently, averaging 105.8 points per game over their last five games. That is big trouble for a Blazers team whose biggest weakness is their play on the defensive end of the court. Portland comes into this game allowing an average of 103.4 points per game over their last give games.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Kings. You should play on a team like Sacramento when they are playing in a game involving two defenses that have allowed 102 points per game or more on the season when they are coming off four or more consecutive games scoring 100 points per game or more. This system is 67-34 (66%) against the spread over the last five seasons. The Kings are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games against a team with a winning record, and that is a trend I expect to continue tonight.

4* Heavy Hitter on TCU +

I am not buying in to Kansas State's recent run. They have a win over Oklahoma State, but they had the luxury of playing host in that game. I think coming off a signature victory like that puts the Wildcats in a letdown spot tonight against a very underrated TCU team. The Horned Frogs have a respectable 9-4 overall record this year, and they have been a great team to back against the spread with a 5-2 record.

Kansas State is not a high scoring team, and I think they will struggle to cover this spread because of it. They have averaged just 64 points per game on the road this season, and they face a TCU team that is averaging over 74 points per game at home. The Horned Frogs defense has also been solid, allowing just 66.4 points per game against much better scoring teams than the Wildcats.

The Kansas State Wildcats have been a great team to fade on the road. They are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games, and 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 road games following three or more consecutive home games. I expect them to have a very poor showing tonight without the comfort and support of their fan base. Kansas State has the worst offense in the Big 12, ranking last in overall shooting percentage and on three point attempts.

3* Total Dominator on Wizards/Bobcats UNDER

The way Washington and Charlotte matchup puts a lot of value on the under. Washington is not a high scoring team, averaging just 98.3 points per game against opposing defenses that have allowed an average over 100 points per game on the year. The Bobcats are also a low scoring team averaging just 91.7 points per game at home this season.

The under is 32-18 in Washington's last 50 games when playing against a team with a losing record. Defensively the Wizards have been decent this year. They should have no problem keeping a bad team like the Bobcats from putting up any big offensive numbers. It is the same story for Charlotte's defense. The Bobcats have held opponents to a mere 93.8 points per game at home, and they should make easy work of the Wizards tonight.

The under is 32-19 over the last two seasons when the Wizards are playing as a road underdog. It is also 25-14 when Washington is coming off a game against a non-conference opponent. The under is 8-1 in Charlotte's last nine games as a home favorite this season, and 13-4 in all their home games on the year. Neither of these teams scores a lot of points, and both are better defensively than they are getting credit for, and that makes the under the play in this game.

3* Total Annihilator on Wolves/Sixers OVER

These two teams should have no problem scoring enough points to send this game over the total. Minnesota comes into this matchup averaging 106.8 points per game. They have the luxury of facing a Philadelphia defense that is allowing 110.8 points per game at home this season. It is a similar story for the 76ers. They are averaging 104 points per game at home, but will be up against a Timberwolves defense that is allowing 103.9 points per game.

For the most part, the oddsmakers have been unable to set the bar high enough on the total for these teams. Minnesota has gone over in six of their last eight games, while Philadelphia has gone over the total in seven of their last 10 games. If not for going under in three of their last four I suspect this total would be set even higher. I don't think the 76ers recent trend is an indication of anything. They played six consecutive road games, but in this matchup they are at home and playing with a day of rest.

The over is 14-6 when Philadelphia is playing against a team with a losing record this season. It is also 15-4 in home games when playing a team making 76 percent or more of their free throw attempts. This matchup also fits into a very profitable system for a play on the over. You should play the over when a team, like Minnesota, is off a home loss against a division rival, and playing against an opponent coming off a road win by three points or less. This system has a 79-42 record in favor of the over.

4* Southern Conf. Game of the Week on Appalachian State +

The Mountaineers have Jay Canty back in the lineup, and the prolific scorer adds a lot of value on Appalachian State after the team put up poor numbers without him. He was second in scoring his first game back, and with Canty in the lineup Appalachian State has four players averaging double-digits in scoring. They face an Elon team that ranks 254th in rebounding with just 33.9 per game. The Mountaineers on the other hand rank 60th in the NCAA with 38.8 rebounds per game.

Elon comes into this matchup having lost four of their last six games. They are playing with a single day of rest coming off a road game against Western Carolina in their last outing. The Phoenix are allowing 74.1 points per game this year, and their poor defense puts them at a large disadvantage as such a large double-digit favorite. I don't see a scenario where Elon is able to win this game by 15 points with their poor defense and a large rebounding disadvantage.

I don't think Elon will get much benefit from home court advantage in this game. The Mountaineers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams that have won 60 percent or more of their home games. The Phoenix come into this game with a 4-11 ATS record in their last 15 games. Elon is also 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against Southern Conference opponents. Appalachian State is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head meetings with Elon, including a 4-1 ATS record when the Phoenix are at home.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Providence +

After getting off to a fast start things have begun to cool off for Villanova. They suffered a 16 point loss against Syracuse and then had to rely on overtime to squeak past Butler by three points in their last two games. It would have been the Wildcats second consecutive loss if not for an unforced turnover from the Bulldogs. It appears the oddsmakers have continued to overvalue Villanova by listing them as a double-digit favorite against a very talented Providence team. The Friars have a 10-4 record this season, and they have played some very respectable games against good opponents.

The Friars four losses have come against Maryland, Kentucky, UMass and Seton Hall. It took overtime for the latter two to get past Providence, and all four of these teams have a combined 42-14 record this season. It is the Friars defense that has afforded them so much success this year. They are holding opponents to a mere 62.7 points per game on the road, and will easily be one of the tougher defenses the Wildcats have faced. Villanova struggled in their matchup against the stingy Orange defense, and I think getting challenged by a big physical team like the Friars will make it hard for the Wildcats to win by such a large margin in this matchup.

Villanova is 14-36 ATS after playing two consecutive games on the road. This matchup also fits into a very profitable system backing the Friars. You should play against a team like Villanova that has covered the spread in six of their last eight games when they have won over 80 percent of their games on the season and they are facing a good team that has won 60 to 80 percent of their games. This system is 121-68 (64%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Total Dominator on Wizards/Warriors OVER

Golden State is one of the hottest teams in the league right now, and a big reason for their success has been their unstoppable offensive play. In their last five games the Warriors are averaging 108.2 points per game. It has taken a big offensive number to win games since defensively Golden State leaves something to be desired. The Warriors have allowed an average of 100 points per game on the road this season.

The Washington Wizards have been a great team to follow with an over play. They have exceeded the oddsmaker

4* Pac-12 Game of the Week on USC +

It seems very unlikely the Bruins will be able to cover a double-digit line like this one against a conference rival like USC. The Trojans are not a bad team, and they come into this game with a 9-4 overall record. They have impressive victories over Boston College and Xavier this season, and their four losses have come against teams with a combined 37-17 record. The Bruins on the other hand have a win over Alabama in their last game, a team with a losing record on the year, and losses against every other good team they have faced from a major conference.

Keeping pace with UCLA should be a relatively easy task for the Trojans to accomplish. The Bruins are allowing a tenth of a point under 70 points per game this year. The Trojans should finish this game with more shot attempts thanks to advantages in rebounding and their ability to draw fouls. USC is +5 in rebounding margin, and they have done a great job pulling in rebounds on the offensive glass. They also average 27 free throw attempts per game, and getting the Bruins in foul trouble is a huge advantage since UCLA lacks talented depth this season. The Bruins have two players on the bench that have seen a significant number of minutes, and neither have been a big scoring threat.

The Trojans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games, and I think the oddsmakers have undervalued this team for a sixth consecutive game. The Bruins are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against a team winning over 60 percent of their games, and they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against any team with a winning record. The Bruins have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four games, and I like that trend to continue in this matchup against a very underrated Trojans team.

4* Double Digit Bloodbath on Boise State -

The Broncos should have no problem picking up a big double-digit victory against their conference rival. Fresno State has been horrible defensively this season, allowing an average of 80.2 points per game when playing on the road. That is not a good sign for the Bulldogs since they are facing a Boise State team that is averaging 87.3 points per game at home this season.

Boise State has three very respectable losses this season. They were on the road against Kentucky, lost a close game to St Mary

5* Non-Conference Game of the Week on Northeastern +

These teams are basically identical statistically, with a few key advantages for the Huskies. Northeastern has been a better rebounding team on the offensive glass, with a +2 rebounding margin on that end of the court. The Commodores on the other hand come into this game with a -2 figure in offensive rebounding margin when playing at home. The Huskies have also been a better ball control team averaging 14 turnovers per game.

The statistical advantages are actually much better than they appear on paper. Northeastern has played a much stronger strength of schedule, so the fact that they are putting up such comparable numbers to Vanderbilt tells me the Huskies are actually the better team. Northeastern has close losses against some very good opponents, while the Commodores have been blown out by good teams and they have played in some very close games against bad teams.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing the Huskies. You should play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Northeastern when they are coming off a loss by six points or less, and playing against an opponent that is coming off a game with a combined score of 110 points or less. This system is 65-32 (67%) against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* No Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -

I like San Antonio's chances to cover a single digit line at home since Los Angeles is playing in the second half of a back-to-back. The Clippers will be without Chris Paul for this matchup, and Paul was a big impact player when these teams met last month. San Antonio has a chance for revenge after being handed one of their most lopsided losses of the season in that game.

The Spurs depth will give them a huge advantage over the Clippers. San Antonio leads the NBA with 46.3 points per game from from the bench. They are averaging 104.2 points per game at home this season, and the Spurs defense is allowing a mere 96.7 points per game overall. The Clippers have a 9-9 record on the road this season, and San Antonio will easily be one of the best home teams they have faced.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system that backs San Antonio. You should play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like the Spurs when they are an excellent offensive team averaging 102 points per game or more, against a poor defensive team allowing 98-102 points per game, after a combined score of 205 points or more in four straight games. This system is 45-18 (71%) against the spread.

4* Heavy Hitter on Chicago Bulls -

The Atlanta Hawks have lost five consecutive games in the second leg of a back-to-back situation. They are coming off a heartbreaking single-point loss last night against Golden State, and now have to travel to Chicago to take on a Bulls team that has quietly won four of their last six games. Unlike Atlanta, the Bulls come into this game well rested, getting a break after beating Boston on Thursday.

A big reason for Chicago's recent success is their defensive play. Over the last five games they have held opponents to a mere 88.2 points per game. Chicago may not be a high scoring team, but they have a big opportunity to get some points on the board tonight when they face an Atlanta defense that is allowing 105.6 points per game on the road.

The Hawks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against Eastern Conference opponents. They face a Bulls team that has a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games. In the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams the Bulls have a 4-1 ATS record when playing in Chicago. Chicago is an easy call in this matchup since Atlanta has continuously proven they can't play in the second half of a back-to-back situation.

4* Big 12 No Brainer on Texas -

In a battle of 11-2 teams I think it is the home team that has the biggest advantage. Texas has played a much stronger strength of schedule, and their 8-2 record at home cannot be ignored. The Longhorns are averaging 78.3 points per game this year, but it is their defense that gives them the advantage over the Sooners. They have held opponents to a mere 66.1 points per game at home this season, while Oklahoma is allowing 77.8 points per game overall.

Texas also has a huge advantage on the boards. They are +8 in rebounding margin, led by Cameron Ridley with 7.2 rebounds per game. Ridley is also a defensive force averaging 2.4 blocks per game which also leads his team. He is a very athletic player that will be a matchup nightmare for the Sooners. Oklahoma lacks a physical presence in the paint and it has shown against the few talented teams they have faced. They have also had serious turnover problems in those games.

The Texas Longhorns are 19-8 ATS in home games when coming off a blowout win of 20 points or more at home. The Longhorns are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning record on the road. The Sooners have a history of struggling against Texas. They are 2-8 in the last 10 head-to-head games against the Longhorns when playing in Texas.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Manhattan -

This game should be a lot more lopsided than the oddsmakers expect. The Jaspers are a very good team, indicated by their 10-2 record this season. Fairfield on the other hand has a 3-10 record, and they have struggled to cover several double-digit lines this season. The Stags have lost by double-digits in three of their last five games.

Manhattan is averaging 77.5 points per game this season. That gives them just over a 16 point advantage over a Stags team that is averaging 61.2 points per game. Fairfield has been a horrible shooting team, averaging 37.2 percent from the field on the road. They also have a negative figure in rebounding margin, and have been turnover prone at times. Manhattan on the other hand is +2 in rebounding margin and averaging just 13 turnovers per game when playing at home.

Fairfield is 3-12 ATS when coming off a road loss, and they are 0-6 ATS when coming off a road loss against a conference opponent. Manhattan comes into this game with a 17-5 ATS record after covering the spread in two of their last three games. The Jaspers are also 35-19 ATS after four or more consecutive wins. The Stags are a very bad team, and I do not give them much chance to keep this game even remotely close against the Jaspers.

4* ACC Game of the Week on Virginia +

The Cavaliers are one of the best defensive teams in basketball, and I think that gives them a big advantage over Florida State in this game. Virginia has held opponents to 56.7 points per game this year, and I do not see a matchup on the court that indicates Florida State has any chance at matching their 77 point per game average. Virginia is a very good team, and after a few games of failing to cover the spread while Florida State has been easily covering the spread I think the oddsmakers have over corrected.

Florida State does not do a lot of scoring from the outside. They average just 13 three point attempts per game, and I like the matchup advantages for the Cavaliers big men in this game. The Cavaliers also have the depth that Florida State is lacking. They have eight players averaging over 15 minutes per game, and I think the constantly fresh legs on the court will be another big advantage in Virginia

4* Hidden Gem on North Texas -

North Texas comes into this matchup against UC-Riverside with a 6-2 record at home. The Highlanders on the other hand have struggled on the road with a 1-5 record. I think there is a big talent gap between Conference USA and the Big West, so the fact that the Mean Green are laying a single-digit number in this game tells me there is a lot of value on the home team.

North Texas has a huge scoring advantage over Riverside in this game. The Mean Green are averaging 74.4 points per game at home, while the Highlanders have averaged a mere 60.3 points per game on the road. When you look at the schedules for both of these teams it is easy to see that UC-Riverside is a very bad team. They have yet to play a decent opponent, and they still come into this game with a 5-8 overall record.

This matchup fits into a very profitable system backing North Texas. You should play against an underdog like UC-Riverside when they are coming off a home win by 10 points or more, and are playing against an opponent off an upset win as a road underdog of 12 points or more. This system is 24-4 (86%) against the spread.

3* No Doubt Rout on St. Josephs -

I think home court advantage plays a big factor in this matchup since Denver is traveling over 1,700 miles to get to this game. The Pioneers have struggled on the road this year posting a 3-5 record. They are scoring a mere 63.5 points in those games. That is not a good sign since they have played a soft schedule and are surrendering 65.9 points per game when playing on the road.

St. Josephs may not have an outstanding record at 8-4, but they have played a very tough schedule. Their losses have come against Creighton, LSU, Temple and Villanova, four teams that have a combined 37-11 record. They have won four consecutive games coming into this matchup so I expect their confidence to be high for this matchup with the Pioneers.

Denver has a 5-13 ATS record in their last 18 non-conference games. They are also 4-14 ATS in road games after two straight games getting called for five or more fouls than their opponents. St Josephs is 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games against a team with a losing record on the road, and they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games overall. I think the Hawks come to play in this one, and easily pick up a win over the Pioneers.

3* Sun Belt Oddsmakers Error on Western Kentucky -

This is a very small line for a good team like Western Kentucky to cover. The Hilltoppers have played a very strong schedule, and they come into this game with a 9-5 record. They have faced two ranked opponents this season, and are no stranger to playing on the road since this will be the seventh road game of the season for Western Kentucky.

Four of the Trojans eight losses have come by a double-digit margin. They average just 66.5 points per game this season, and have a -2 figure in rebounding margin. That puts them at a big disadvantage against the Hilltoppers who are +4 in rebounding margin, and they are pulling in an average of 13 offensive rebounds per game when playing on the road.

I think Western Kentucky

5* Big East Game of the Month on St. Johns +

Georgetown might be one of the most overrated teams in the Big East this season. They come into this matchup against St. Johns with a 9-3 record, suffering losses at the hands of Oregon, Northeastern and Kansas. That may not seem all that bad at first glance, but those games were not even close. Their most recent loss to Kansas came by 22 points. Even their wins have been less than impressive. They won at home against Colgate by a mere six points, and they are coming off a home win by seven points against a very bad DePaul team.

I think St. Johns will be the hungry team in this game after suffering a road loss earlier this week at the hands of Xavier. The Red Storm have played two ranked teams, staying within five points of No. 2 ranked Syracuse last month. Their four losses have come against teams with a combined record of 47-8. Their difficult schedule should have them well prepared to take on this overrated Hoyas team. The Red Storm have two key statistical advantages. They are a better rebounding team averaging 38 boards per game, with 10 of those coming on the offensive glass, and they are a better ball control team with just 10 turnovers per game this year.

St Johns is 8-0 ATS when coming off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival. They are also 25-12 ATS in road games when coming off a road loss. Georgetown on the other hand has posted a 15-32 ATS record in home games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite. The Hoyas have failed to meet oddsmaker

3* No Doubt Rout on Hawaii -

Home court advantage will be big for Hawaii since this is such a dramatic time change for Nebraska-Omaha. Combine that with the fact that the Warriors are an underrated team this season and we have the makings for a blowout in this game. Hawaii comes into this matchup with a 10-3 overall record, and they are 8-1 against the spread. The oddsmakers have not been able to set the bar high enough for this team that is averaging 82.4 points per game.

The biggest advantage Hawaii has in this matchup is their outstanding defensive play. Nebraska-Omaha has played a soft schedule this year with the exception of their road game against Minnesota. I think their offensive numbers are very inflated, and they will struggle to put up points against this Warriors team that has held opponents to 67.5 points per game at home. The Nebraska-Omaha defense has been soft on the road, allowing opponents to score 79.6 points per game.

The Mavericks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record. The Warriors on the other hand are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games and 5-1 in their last six non-conference games. The Warriors have dominated the rebounding margin this season while Nebraska-Omaha is -2 in that category when playing on the road. I expect to see Hawaii get a lot of second chance shot attempts and pick up a double-digit win over the Mavericks.

5* NBA Game of the Week on New Orleans Pelicans -

The Pelicans are an easy call in this game. The Celtics lack the offensive firepower it will take to keep pace with this New Orleans team, and Boston has struggled to keep up with oddsmaker

3* No Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz -

The home team is the play in this matchup. The Jazz are a better team defensively than Milwaukee, and I think that gives them a big edge in this matchup. Utah has held opponents to 99.5 points per game at home this year, while Milwaukee is allowing 101.6 points per game on the road. Both teams average 92.7 points on offense, but with the Jazz playing at home against such a soft defense I think they have a good opportunity to improve on that number.

The Jazz also have an extra day of rest prior to facing the Bucks. Milwaukee played on New Year's eve, and they with this being their fourth game this week, and third on the road, I expect to see them look run down. The Bucks are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 games against Northwest division opponents. They are also 2-10 following a straight up win. Milwaukee is coming off and upset win as an underdog over the Lakers, and I don't think they can put together back-to-back wins on the road.

This matchup fits into a system to play against road underdogs like Milwaukee when they are a terrible team being outscored by six or more points per game, and facing an opponent that is coming off a win by six points or less. This system is 106-61 against the spread. The Jazz are also 5-2 in their last seven games when playing with two days of rest, and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games against Central division opponents.

4* Heavy Hitter on Missouri State -

Missouri State is clearly the better team in this game, and I don't think Illinois State has the scoring ability to keep this matchup within five points. Missouri State averages 79.7 points per game at home this season, and they have a perfect 7-0 record. Illinois State has struggled on the road with a 3-3 record, and their defense has been horrible in those games allowing 78.5 points per game.

Defensively Missouri State is a very solid team. They are holding opponents to 65.9 points per game at home, and keeping Illinois State in check should be an easy task to accomplish. The Redbirds are averaging just 40 percent from the field this season. Illinois State has also been a very poor rebounding team, and they have major issues with getting into foul trouble.

The Redbirds are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win. They face a Missouri State Bears team that is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games against Missouri Valley Conference opponents. The Bears are also 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. The Bears are far too talented to allow Illinois State to keep this game close, and I think Missouri State picks up a big win in this game.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Eastern Illinois +

I think the home team has a big advantage in this game, especially as such a large underdog. The Panthers are a much better team than their 4-8 record indicates. They have played well at home this year posting a 3-2 record against a decent strength of schedule. The Panthers are a strong team defensively, holding opponents to just 66.6 points per game at home.

Eastern Kentucky has been a horrible rebounding team. They are -6 in rebounding margin, and I think they have benefited from a very soft schedule this year. The Colonels have played some very close games against weak opponents, and they should struggle with the Panthers in this matchup. Eastern Kentucky is allowing over 70 points per game on the road this year, and all four of their losses have come in road games.

The Colonels are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a win, and 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last four games when coming off a win by more than 20 points. Eastern Kentucky just played one of the worst teams in college basketball, and I think they will struggle against a much stronger team like Eastern Illinois.

4* Total No Brainer on Warriors/Heat OVER

Golden State is one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now, and a big reason for their recent success has come from an offense that is scoring a lot of points. Golden State comes into this matchup averaging 102.2 points per game over their last five games. Three of those five games have been played on the road, so there is no reason to expect the offense to cool down in this matchup with Miami.

The Heat are one of the best teams in the league, and I don't think they will have any problems keeping pace with Golden State in this game. Miami averages 108.1 points per game at home, and they are allowing an average of 99.7 defensively. The oddsmakers have continuously set the total too low in Miami's home games, and that as resulted in an 11-5 record for the over.

This matchup fits into a system to play the over when one of the teams, in this case Miami, is coming off a road no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite, and they are a well rested team playing only their second game in five days. This system is 25-5 to the over for the last five seasons. The over is also 4-1 in Golden State's last five games against Eastern Conference opponents, and 7-2 in Miami's last nine games overall.

3* No Doubt Rout on Akron -

Akron should have no problem picking up a double-digit win in this game against Marshall. The Thundering Herd have been terrible defensively, allowing an average of 85.8 points per game. Marshall is yet to win a game on the road this season at 0-6, and they have a 1-4 record against the spread in those games.

Akron comes into this came averaging 77.2 points per game at home. They are a perfect 5-0 ATS in those games, and have played phenomenal defense. The Zips are holding opponents to a mere 61.8 points per game at home this year. They have also been a solid rebounding team, and I don't see how Marshall will be able to keep this game close when they lose the battle on the boards.

Akron is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games against teams winning less than 40 percent of their games on the road. The Thundering Herd come into this game with a 3-12 ATS record in their last 15 games played as a road underdog. With Akron's high powered offensive attack, and their outstanding defensive play there is no way a 5-8 team like Marshall should be able to keep this game close on the road.

3* Total Annihilator on Wolves/Pelicans OVER

This total seems a bit low considering the complete lack of defense these teams have shown this season, as well as their outstanding scoring potential. New Orleans comes into this game averaging 103 points per game, and I expect them to score at-will against a Minnesota defense that has surrendered 102.2 points per game this season. It should be an easy night to make baskets for the Wolves too. They are averaging 107.4 points per game at home this season, and face a New Orleans defense that has allowed 106.5 points per game on the road.

Minnesota is one game below .500 this season, and that bodes well for the over in this game. New Orleans is 11-0 to the over when playing against a team with a losing record this season. They are also 22-7 to the over against teams shooting under 43 percent from the field with a defense that allows over 46 percent shooting from opponents. Minnesota may not shoot at a high percentage, but their up-tempo pace of play has certainly offset that fact. Not only do the Wolves average 107.4 points per game at home, but they are at 106.2 points per game overall this season.

The Over is 10-4 in the Pelican

3* Oddsmakers Error on Old Dominion +

William and Mary may score a lot of points, but they have yet to face a team with as strong of a defense as Old Dominion. The Monarchs have held opponents to 65.8 points per game this season, and they have done so against opponents whose offensive scoring average is over 71 points per game. The Tribe have averaged 72.6 points per game which is slightly more than the Monarchs, but their opponents have surrendered 72.7 points per game this year.

Another big advantage for the Monarchs is their outstanding rebounding ability. They are +3 in rebounding margin while the Tribe are -1 on the boards. William and Mary has been a very soft team defensively, allowing over 71 points per game. Their soft defense is just what Old Dominion needs to see in order to boost their scoring average over 64.8 points per game. The Monarchs may not score a lot of points, but that has not stopped them from posting a 4-2 ATS record on the road this season.

William and Mary is 1-4 ATS in their last five games against C-USA opponents. They are also 10-25 ATS in their last 36 home games against a team with a losing record. Old Dominion comes into this game with a 4-1 ATS record in their last five road games against a team with a winning record at home. This is a non-conference game, so I don

4* Heavy Hitter on College of Charleston +

The Charleston Cougars are a much better team than their 6-7 record indicates. They are a strong rebounding team, and that will give them a big advantage over Davidson in this matchup. The Davidson Wildcats are -5 in rebounding margin, while the Cougars are have a +4 figure in that area. The advantages for Charleston do not end on the boards. They are also very good at staying out of foul trouble, which means Davidson will not be able to get their typical 16 points per game from the free throw line.

Davidson is a very weak team defensively. They have allowed an average of 81.7 points per game, and even with the added benefit of playing at home they are giving up over 72 points per game. Meanwhile, Charleston comes into this game holding opponents to just 62.8 points per game overall, and 60.3 points per game when playing on the road. Davidson has a 4-9 record this season, and they are 1-2 in home games. That only home victory came against a team that is not even in NCAA division one basketball.

Charleston has been a great team to back on the road. They are 59-29 ATS as a road underdog since 1997. They are also 57-33 ATS after two consecutive non-conference games. Charleston is also 27-12 ATS in road games against teams that average 33 or less rebounds per game. Davidson comes into this matchup with a 1-4 ATS record in their last five home games. I think Charleston has a very good chance to pull off the upset in this game, but since they are on the road we will take the points.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Marquette +

The oddsmakers are giving way too much respect to Creighton in this game. Marquette may have five losses on the season, but all of them have come against very respectable opponents, and only one of those five losses came by a double-digit margin. I don

4* Vegas Insider on North Texas +

The Texas A&M Aggies are nowhere near as good as their 8-3 record would indicate. They have played an incredibly soft schedule, and now that they are facing more division one opponents, they have lost three of their last five games. They are coming off a 12 point neutral court loss to an Oklahoma team that is one of the most overrated squads in college basketball. The Aggies have yet to pick up a quality win this season, and I expect them to struggle with North Texas in this game.

The Mean Green are an outstanding rebounding team, and that gives them a huge advantage over the Aggies. North Texas averages 42 rebounds per game, with 11 coming on the offensive glass. They have also been a great ball control team with a mere 13 turnovers per game. The extra rebounds and their ability to avoid turnovers has resulted in an average of over 60 shot attempts per game. Those extra attempts over the Aggies should ensure that this game stays well within the point range we are being spotted in this matchup.

The Mean Green are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team winning 60 percent of their games or more. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games when coming off three or more consecutive games at home. The Aggies on the other hand have a 3-7 ATS record in their last 10 games against C-USA opponents, and they are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games against a team with a winning record.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Boston Celtics -

The Celtics should be a much larger favorite on their home court against Atlanta. The Hawks are 5-10 on the road this season, and their defense has been nothing short of horrible in those games. Atlanta is allowing 106.5 points per game on the road against opponents whose typical offensive average is only 99.4 points per game. The Hawks have failed to cover the spread in three straight games, and they are 3-12 ATS in road games after missing the cover in two or more consecutive games.

Boston may not have a great record, but they have played well defensively this season and that gives them a big matchup advantage in this game. They also come into this game with an extra day of rest over the Hawks. This is Atlanta

4* Total Dominator on Bobcats/Jazz UNDER

The total on this game has been set far too high considering how poorly both of these teams are offensively this season. The Bobcats come into this game averaging just 92.9 points per game. They are shooting a mere 42.2 percent from the field, and 32 percent on three point attempts. They have been saved be decent defensive play, allowing 94.2 points per game, and they should easily improve on that number against this Jazz team that averages just 93 points per game on offense.

Utah may not have the same strong defensive numbers that the Bobcats do, but these teams met just over a week ago and the Jazz held Charlotte to a mere 85 points. The total in that game was very similar, set at 189 points yet the combined score for these teams was just 173 points. I don't think a change in venue is enough to expect an extra 16 points scoring from these teams.

The under is 4-0 in Charlotte's last four games against a Western Conference opponent, and it is 7-1 in their last eight games against a team winning 40 percent of their games or less. The under is 10-4 in the Bobcats last 14 games played on a single day of rest. The Jazz are also trending towards the under with a 12-4 record following an ATS win, and a 5-2 record in their last seven games against Southeast division teams.

4* No Brainer on Utah Jazz -

This is a very small number for the Jazz to be laying against a bad team like Charlotte. The Bobcats are entering their second game of a five game road trip, and they have lost three of their last four coming into this stretch. The first loss to start their recent skid came at the hands of the Utah Jazz. Charlotte played host in the last matchup between these teams, but this time it will be the Jazz with home court advantage.

There is a lot of value on Utah as a small favorite with the Bobcats coming off an overtime loss in their last game. The wear and tear from playing back-to-back games on the road is hard enough when you only have a single day of rest in-between, but the fact that they also had to play through overtime tells me the Bobcats will be even more worn out than normal. The Bobcats are 19-33 ATS when coming off two or more consecutive losses.

This matchup fits into a system to play against underdogs like Charlotte when they are revenging a straight up loss as a favorite against their opponent. This system is 138-86 (62%) against the spread when that team is coming off a road loss where they covered the spread. Charlotte has a 9-28 ATS record in non-conference matchups over the last two seasons, and I expect that trend to continue tonight against the Jazz.

4* Heavy Hitter on San Francisco +

With Dower and Bell both out for Gonzaga, there is a lot of value on San Francisco as such a large underdog in this game. The Dons have a very respectable 8-5 record this season, and their offense should have no problem keeping pace with the Bulldogs. San Francisco is averaging 81.9 points per game this season, shooting over 51 percent from the field. They are also a great ball control team committing just 13 turnovers per game.

This biggest weakness for San Francisco has been their defense. They catch a huge break since Dower and Bell will not be in the lineup. The two combined for 26.5 points per game for the Bulldogs, and are second and third on the team in scoring. The biggest hit may not be a loss of points for Gonzaga, but their advantage on the boards instead. Dower is second on the team in rebounds with 6.8 per game, and against a physical team like the Dons I have to believe the rebounding margin swings heavily in San Francisco's favor.

The Dons are 46-17 against the spread against West Coast Conference opponents, and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games against a team with a winning record at home. Gonzaga comes into this game having lost four of their last five against the spread. The Bulldogs are also 0-6 ATS in home games when coming off two straight games with nine or less offensive rebounds. With the key injuries suffered by Gonzaga there is simply too much value on San Francisco to pass up.

4* Vegas Insider on Western Kentucky +

The Ole Miss Rebels have been struggling recently dropping three of their last five games. I expect them to struggle once again today against a Western Kentucky team that has won four of their last five games. The Hilltoppers are coming off a 100+ point performance, so confidence should be high for tonight's matchup with the Rebels.

The greatest strength for this Western Kentucky team is a defense that has held opponents to a mere 59.9 points per game. The biggest reason for their success this season has been the Hilltoppers ability to out rebound their opponents. Western Kentucky is +4 in rebounding margin in home games this year, and they are not allowing many second chance opportunities on the offensive glass from their opponents.

The Ole Miss Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record. The Hilltoppers come into this matchup with a 5-1 ATS record in their last six games against a team winning 60 percent or more of their games on the season. They are also 19-9 ATS in their last 28 home games. I think the physical play in the paint from Western Kentucky gets them the win at home in this matchup.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Portland -

The Portland Pilots have been a great team to back against the spread this year, and I think the oddsmakers have once again undervalued them in today's matchup with Santa Clara. The Broncos have not fared well against the spread this season, posting a 2-6 record in comparison to a 10-3 ATS record from the Pilots. Santa Clara has averaged a mere 64.6 points per game when playing on the road, and with numbers like that I expect them to struggle keeping pace with this Portland team that has averaged 81.4 points per game at home this season.

Santa Clara has played a very soft schedule this season, yet they are still being dominated on the boards. The Broncos have a negative number in rebounding margin, and when playing on the road they have been outrebound by six per game. They also have a poor pressure defense, forcing just 12 turnovers per game on the road. The Pilots on the other hand, come into this game with a positive figure in rebounding margin, and they average seven steals and five blocks per game at home. They are a solid unit defensively, and should have no problem covering a single digit spread against the Broncos.

This matchup fits into a system to play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Portland when they are an excellent offensive team averaging 76 points per game or more, and they are facing an average defensive team that has allowed 67-74 points per game, when coming off a matchup with a combined score of 165 points or more. This system is 53-18 (75%) against the spread over the last five seasons. If that is not enough, the Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against West Coast Conference opponents, while the Pilots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.

3* No Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets +

There is a lot of value on Houston as an underdog in this matchup. This game could go either way, but it will almost certainly be very close. I don

3* Oddsmakers Error on Missouri State -

SE Missouri State has been very inconsistent this year, and I don

4* No Brainer on College of Charleston -

The College of Charleston may not have a great overall record, but that is because they have played an extremely difficult schedule this season. The Cougars have faced the likes of Louisville, Miami, San Diego State, and Arizona State this year, while the Citadel have played just two mediocre opponents in Tennessee and Nebraska with both games resulting in 20+ point losses. The Cougars difficult schedule will make the Citadel look like a practice squad in this game.

The Citadel Bulldogs have been a very soft team defensively. They are allowing 75.7 points per game against opponents whose offensive scoring average is only at 70.7 points per game. The Cougars on the other hand are allowing a mere 64.1 points per game and have actually played better on the road allowing just 62.8 points. Charleston

4* Heavy Hitter on UTEP -

The Miners are playing host in the Sun Bowl Invitational, and I don

3* Main Event on Philadelphia 76ers +

The Phoenix Suns might be the most overrated team in the NBA right now. They opened the season with an impressive run, and there is certainly no denying that. However, I don

3* Oddsmakers Error on Tulane +

This is a lot of points for Tulane to be receiving on a neutral court. The Green Wave come into this game with a 7-6 overall record and they have won three of their last four games. Tulane has a very significant scoring advantage over Kansas State. They average 70.8 points per game to just 66.5 points from the Wildcats. The Green Wave are also averaging one turnover per game less than the Wildcats, and shooting eight percent better from the free throw line. The better shooting does not end at the free throw line. They have also made six percent more of their attempts from beyond the three point line.

The Green Wave are the better scoring team, and I just don

3* No Doubt Rout on Golden State -

The last time these teams met the game was playing in Phoenix and the Suns walked away with a four point win. This is a chance for revenge for the Warriors who will play host to their division rival. Golden State is hot right not having won four of their last five games. They are playing with a day of rest, and I think that gives them an advantage over a Suns team that will be shaking off a little rust since they have not played a game since before the holiday.

A big reason for Golden State's recent success has been their outstanding defensive play. The Warriors have held two of their last three opponents under 85 points. They average 104.9 points per game at home this season. They should continue to score at will against a Phoenix defense allowing 104.5 points per game against division opponents, and I like their chances for the defense to shine against the rusty Phoenix Suns.

The Suns have struggled when playing good teams. They are 16-30 against the spread when playing a team that is outscoring their opponents by three or more points per game. You should play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Phoenix when they are coming off a win by 20 points or more over a division opponent, and facing a team that is coming off a home win like Golden State. This system is 29-8 (78%) against the spread.

5* CBB Game of the Month on Seton Hall -

The Seton Hall Pirates are clearly the better team in this game. The Pirates average 79 points per game at home, and I think there is a big opportunity to score even more tonight against a Lafayette defense that has allowed an average of 76 points per game on the road. The Pirates are also a great foul drawing team, and averaging over 74 percent from the free throw line will give them another key advantage.

The Pirates should dominate the boards in this matchup. They are +2 in rebounding margin, while the Lafayette Leopards are -1. Things will not get any easier for the Leopards tonight because they will be up against Seton Hall's Gene Teague. This season Teague has five double-doubles. He averages 10.2 points per game and 9.3 rebounds. The Leopards do not have a player on the court that will be able to compete with Teague on the offensive glass, and those second chance shot attempts will be a big difference maker in this game.

This matchup fits into a system to play on home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points from a major division one conference when they are coming off a home win scoring 85 points or more and they are playing against a team from a mid-major conference. This system is 147-87 (62.8%) against the spread. Lafayette will be without their best player Seth Hinrichs who is out indefinitely with a knee injury. With Seton Hall already having a big statistical advantage over the Leopards, I can't see how Lafayette will be able to stick withing 11 points on the road against the Pirates.

4* No Brainer on Memphis +

This is a lot of points for the Grizzlies to be receiving considering Houston is coming off a big emotional win last night. Playing in a back-to-back situation at this point in the season is a hard enough task on its own, but after crushing the San Antonio Spurs yesterday I am not sure the Rockets will be coming into this game with the mentality it takes to pull off a near double-digit win. The Grizzlies have been solid on the road this season, posting a 6-5 record, and scoring should not be a problem against this Rockets defense allowing 102.3 points per game.

The Grizzlies have played well recently, picking up wins in their last two games. I think there is a lot of value on a team coming into this game with two days to prepare. It has taken some time, but it seems like the Grizzlies are finally starting to adjust to the loss of Marc Gasol. In their last five games Memphis has held opponents to 96.6 points per game, and their stingy defense should give them a great chance to pull off an upset in Houston.

The Grizzlies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games when playing on two days of rest. They are also 73-44 ATS in road games when playing just their second game in a five day stretch. Houston on the other hand has posted a 0-6 ATS record in their last six games following a straight up win, and they are 8-28 ATS in home games when playing their fifth game in seven days.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Hawaii -

Hawaii is a very undervalued team laying just 4.5-points against the Beavers. They come into this matchup with an 8-3 overall record, and a 7-1 record against the spread. The Warriors have been dominant on the boards, at +6 in rebounding margin to -6 from the Beavers when playing on the road. That gives them a very significant matchup advantage over Oregon State. They also have the benefit of playing at home where they have five wins by a double-digit margin this season.

Not only are the Beavers at a disadvantage in rebounding, but they are a horrible team defensively. They have allowed 78.2 points per game on the road this season, and that is big trouble when facing a Hawaii team that has averaged over 83 points per game. The Beavers are not good at forcing turnovers, and they have a horrible perimeter defense. Hawaii is shooting just shy of 50 percent from the field at home, and they are averaging almost 37 percent from beyond the three-point line.

The Warriors have been a great team to back when playing with a single day of rest. Over the last three seasons they have a 15-6 ATS record when playing with one or less days of rest, while the Beavers come into this game with a 4-12 ATS record when coming off one or more consecutive wins. Oregon State has barely matched oddsmakers expectations this year, with their last two ATS wins coming by a margin of just 1.5 points combined. Hawaii, on the other hand, has four double-digit wins out of five games as a single-digit favorite.

3* Total Dominator on Bulls/Nets UNDER

What was projected to be a Christmas Day shootout between two of the top teams in the league has quickly become a game between two of the worst teams in basketball. The Nets and Bulls are bad, and bad teams don't typically score a lot of points. Chicago comes into this game averaging just 90.9 points per game on the road. The Bulls have a solid defense, but they are not winning games because of a major lack of scoring. They have held opponents to just 93.3 points per game, and that has come against a schedule that features teams with a combined average of 99 points per game scored. They catch a small break in this matchup against Brooklyn since the Nets are averaging a slightly lower 97.6 points per game.

Brooklyn has been soft defensively, but they are no worse than any other team Chicago has faced. The Bulls opponents are giving up 99.6 points per game and even a soft schedule like that has not helped Chicago score points. I think that creates significant value on the under in this game. The Nets won't be able to score on the Bulls defense, and Chicago can't score against anyone. The under is 12-2 when Chicago is playing against a team with a losing record this season, and it is 14-3 in Bull's games when the total is set between 180 to 189.5 points.

This matchup fits into two very profitable systems to make a play on the under. First, you should play the under when any team has lost four of their last six games, in a matchup involving two bad teams that are winning 25 to 40 percent of their games on the season. This system is 189-128 in favor of the under for the last five seasons. The second system is to play the under after one of the teams (Brooklyn) has failed to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games, also in a matchup involving two bad teams. This system is 48-23 to the under for the last five seasons.

4* Vegas Insider in New Orleans Pelicans +

The Kings are one of the worst teams in the league this year, and there is a lot of value on the Pelicans in today's matchup. New Orleans is coming into this game playing with a day of rest after playing a close game with Portland in their last outing. They will surely be trying to end their five game road trip on a positive note. The Kings come into this game having lost five of their last seven games.

The Pelicans will have a significant matchup advantage against this soft Sacramento defense. The Kings are allowing 103.3 points per game this year, and they will have their hands full against a Pelicans team that has had no problem putting up big offensive numbers. New Orleans comes into this matchup averaging 102.4 points, and they have the luxury of facing a Sacramento team that is just 5-10 straight up and against the spread at home this season.

This will be Sacramento's fifth game in the last seven days, and they are 29-61 ATS when playing in this scenario. They are also 5-15 as a home favorite of six points or less over the last two seasons. The Pelicans on the other hand are 31-14 ATS in road games when coming off four or more consecutive losses. The Kings have a 4-13 ATS record in their last 17 home games against a team with a losing record and it seems the oddsmakers have once again given them too much credit in today's matchup.

3* No Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -

San Antonio has been dangerously good at home this year. They are 9-3 in home games, while Toronto is just 6-6 on the road. The Spurs are scoring 102.9 points per game at home, and they should have no problem exceeding that number against a soft defense like Toronto's that has allowed opponents an average of 99 points per game this year. The Spurs have played extremely well defensively, and they get a day of rest while the Raptors are playing on back-to-back nights.

With Toronto coming into this game having won three of their last four games, and the Spurs losing two of their last four I think we are getting a lot of value on San Antonio. The Spurs clearly outmatch the Raptors, and I don't think recent results are relevant in this game considering the opponents these teams have faced recently. The Spurs recent losses have come against the Clippers and Thunder, two teams that are considerably better than the Raptors.

San Antonio is 31-16 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons. The Raptors come into this matchup with a 16-34 ATS record against good shooting teams that are making over 48 percent of their attempts from the field. The Spurs have posted an 18-7 ATS record when playing against a losing team that has won just 40 to 49 percent of their games on the season. With San Antonio coming into this game with a day of rest and the Raptors playing last night on the road I think the Spurs are poised to win this game in a blowout.

4* No Brainer on IUPU-Indianapolis +

The Redhawks come into this matchup having lost their last two consecutive games. I think the loss to Memphis puts them in a letdown spot against the IUPU Jaguars today. These two teams are lot more evenly matched than their records indicate. The Jaguars have played a few bad games that make them look much worse statistically than they actually are. Their 29.5 percent shooting from the field against Marquette was an anomaly, and I expect a much stronger performance in what will be their second game of the season against SE Missouri State.

The Jaguars are a very good ball control team, and I don't think SE Missouri State can win this game by a double-digit margin without a very lopsided figure in the turnover margin. IUPU averages just 11 turnovers per game, and they have also done a great job of avoiding foul trouble. In games that end in a blowout there is almost always a clear advantage in turnovers or points from the free throw line, and the Redhawks simply won't be able to win those battles in this game.

SE Missouri State is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games when coming off a loss. The last time these teams met the game was decided by just eight points back in November. This matchup falls into a system to play on road underdogs of 10 points or more when they are revenging a home loss against their opponent, and they are playing their second road game in three days. This system is 120-72 against the spread over the last five seasons.

3* Total Dominator on Hawks/Heat UNDER

I don't expect defense to be an issue for either team in this game since they are both coming in well rested. Atlanta has been known to be a little soft defensively, but they are coming off a performance in which they held Utah to just 85 points, and two days to prepare should help the Hawks slow down Miami's offensive attack. The Heat are also coming into this game with two days rest, so I expect their already stingy defense to have another strong performance.

Both of these teams are below their overall scoring average when playing against division opponents. There is a lot of value on the under with when you have two well rested teams from the same division facing off. The under is 24-11 in Miami's last 35 games against division opponents, and the under is 17-6 in Atlanta's last 23 games when playing a team that has won over 70 percent of their games on the season.

When two teams have been trending towards the over the oddsmakers have a tendency to set totals much higher than they should. This matchup fits into a system to play the under when one team is coming off three or more consecutive overs, and their opponent is coming off four or more consecutive overs. The Hawks are coming off five straight overs, and its been four straight for the Heat. This system has a 59-24 (71%) record in favor of the under for the last five seasons.

4* Total Annihilator on Knicks/Magic UNDER

There is a lot of value on the under in this matchup between the Knicks and Magic. These are two very bad teams, and I don't see a scenario where either team is able to do enough scoring to sent this game over the total. The Knicks have been horrible on the road averaging just 93.2 points per game. They under is 4-8 in New York's 12 road games this season.

The Magic have also had problems scoring points, and I expect them to struggle against New York's underrated defense. New York has certainly been horrible this year, but defensively they have played extremely well. The Knicks have held opponents to just 94.1 points per game on the road this year. The Magic are scoring just 96.6 points per game this year, and they have put that number up against opponents who are surrendering a lot more points than New York at 99.6 points allowed per game.

The under is 8-1 in New York's nine games as a road underdog this season, and they are 22-10 to the under when playing just their second game in the last five gays. The under is also 14-3 when Orlando is revenging a blowout loss of 20 points or more against their opponents. This matchup also fits into a system to play the under when one of the teams (Orlando) has lost four of their last six games, in a matchup involving two bad teams that have won 25 to 40 percent of their games on the season. This system is 189-127 to the under for the last five seasons.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Milwaukee Bucks +

There is a lot of value on Milwaukee as such a large underdog with Caron Butler back in the lineup. In his first game back from a knee injury Butler came up big with 22 points and 11 rebounds. It was one of the best offensive performances of the season for the Bucks who ended up winning 116-106 against Philadelphia. The Bucks are a team that will rapidly improve as they get healthy players back on the roster, and tonight is a perfect opportunity to jump on them before the oddsmakers catch on.

This will be Charlotte's fifth game in the last seven days, and if their last performance against Utah is any indication it appears the brutal stretch of schedule is starting to catch up with them. The Bobcats lost outright as a home favorite against Utah even though they had one of their best defensive performances of the season. They managed to score just 85 points on the offensive end of the court, and that won't be enough to keep pace with this Bucks team that has gone over 100 points in each of their last three games.

The Bobcats have not received a lot of benefit from playing at home posting a mere 7-9 record. They have a matching record against the spread in those games. In their last five games Milwaukee has averaged 102.2 points per game. The Bucks offense is hot right now, and they should have no problem keeping this game close against a Charlotte team that is averaging 90.9 points per game at home this season.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Fordham -

This game has blowout written all over it. Loyola has been a great team to fade this year, and it seems the oddsmakers have still not caught on to just how bad the Ramblers are this year. They have posted a 1-8 record against the spread, and they are just 1-5 straight up and against the spread when playing on the road this season. Fordham comes into this game with a 4-1 record at home, and I like them to play another outstanding game defensively against Loyola.

The Rams have a knack for stepping up their level of play in home games. They average 79.6 points per game, and on the defensive end of the court they have surrendered just 66.5 points when playing at home. Meanwhile, the Ramblers come into this game averaging just 64.8 points per game on the road. Loyola has played a very soft schedule this year, and they still cannot meet oddsmakers expectations. Fordham should be well prepared for this game after facing the likes of Syracuse and St John's already this season.

The Fordham Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a losing record, and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. They are up against a Ramblers team that is coming off a 49 point performance against Northern Illinois in their last game. Loyola is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 50 points or less in their previous game. The Rams have consistently outperformed the oddsmakers expectations in non-conference play, posting an 11-4 ATS record dating back to last season and we will ride them to victory again today.

3* No Doubt Rout on UNLV -

This game has blowout written all over it. The Runnin' Rebels have been a great team to back in non-conference play posting a 6-0 ATS record in their last six games. UNLV comes into this game with one of the best defenses in college basketball, holding opponents to a mere 57 points per game on the road. They have played a tough schedule in the process, facing the likes of Illinois and Arizona.

Santa Clara is not a good team. They are scoring just 63.7 points per game on the road, and have a 1-3 record in those games. This is technically a tournament game for the Rebels, but they will be playing host in this Continental Tire Las Vegas Classic. With the backing of their home crowd I expect to see the Rebels easily pick up a double-digit win. They are an outstanding rebounding team, averaging 44 rebounds per game while allowing opponents just 39 boards per game.

Santa Clara has been a great team to fade the past few years. They have a 25-40 ATS record in all games, and they are keeping on that pace this year with a 0-5 ATS record to open the season. UNLV comes into this game with a 48-30 ATS record when playing with one or less days of rest, and they are a hot team having won four of their last five games. That lone loss was a close game on the road against Arizona, losing by just five points to arguably one of the best teams in the country. The talent gap between Santa Clara and UNLV is a big one, and it will show in this matchup.

3* Main Event on Toronto Raptors +

Toronto is a much better team than they are getting credit for in this matchup. They have the benefit of getting the Thunder who are playing in a back-to-back situation after facing the San Antonio Spurs last night. That was a big win for the Oklahoma City, and I don't see them coming into this game with the mentality it takes to win by a double-digit margin.

Toronto has played well recently winning four of their last six games both straight up and against the spread. They are playing with a day of rest which gives them a big advantage over the Thunder. The Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games overall, and 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games against a team with a winning record at home.

You should play against a home favorite of 10 points or more like Oklahoma City when they have won eight or more of their last 10 games and have a winning record on the season when they are facing a team with a losing record. This system is 105-59 (64%) against the spread over the last five seasons. With a day of rest, and after winning three of their last four I like the Raptors chances to play a close game with the Thunder today.

5* Vegas Insider on DePaul +

Illinois State is clearly outmatched in this game. The Redbirds have serious rebounding issues this season, and they have also been getting into a lot of foul trouble. Those extra rebounds, as well as the extra points from the free throw line give DePaul a significant matchup advantage. The Blue Demons come into this game with a +3 figure in rebounding margin, while the Redbirds are -5 in that category. Illinois State has averaged 24 fouls per game, so expect the Blue Demons to be playing from the bonus early on.

Another factor favoring the Blue Demons is their overall strength of schedule in comparison to Illinois State. DePaul has a better record, and they have been winning games against better teams than the Redbirds. The Blue Demons have won four of their last five games coming into this matchup. Illinois State is coming off a game where they squeaked by a weak Tennessee State team, and prior to that they were crushed in a matchup with Oakland. The Redbirds have not shot above 38 percent from the field in their last two outings.

Illinois State is 10-26 in their last 36 home games against a team with a winning record. DePaul is coming off a blowout win over Houston Baptist and they are 13-4 ATS on the road when coming off a home win by 20 points or more. The Blue Demons are also 27-13 ATS in road games when playing against a marginal team that has won 51% to 60% of their games on the season. DePaul is clearly the better team, and they should have no problem picking up a win over Illinois State in this matchup.

3* No Doubt Rout on LA Clippers -

The Clippers are loaded with talent, and they should have no problem picking up a blowout win over the Nuggets in this game. They have a beast with DeAndre Jordan, and the combination of Blake Griffin and Chris Paul simply make them too much to handle for this struggling Nuggets team that has lost three of their last four games. Jordan is tied for second in the NBA with an average of 13 rebounds, and tied for fourth with 2.2 blocks per game.

The Clippers come into this matchup having won five of their last six games. They are playing at home with two nights of rest, and that gives them a huge advantage over a Nuggets team that is coming off a four point loss just last night against Phoenix. The Clippers are 10-2 in home games, and they are scoring 111.2 points per in each of those games. Against a soft Nuggets defense that is playing without rest I think they should have no problem putting up another huge offensive number tonight.

The Nuggets come into this game with a 2-8 ATS record in their last 10 games against Pacific division teams. The Clippers on the other hand are 4-0 ATS in their last four against Western Conference opponents. The Nuggets have struggled on the road against teams with a winning home record, posting a 4-9 ATS record in those games. Denver is also 1-5 ATS in their last six games when playing without a day of rest.

4* Total No Brainer on 76ers/Bucks OVER

This total is set far too low considering how easily both of these teams should score in this game. The 76ers have had no problem getting points on the board all season, averaging 102.3 points per game. They should continue to score at-will against a Bucks defense that has allowing over a point per game more than their opponents scoring average.

Milwaukee has had trouble scoring this year, but that will change in this matchup. The 76ers have one of the worse defenses in the league, allowing an average of 112.4 points per game on the road this season. Philadelphia has allowed 120 points or more in each of their last three games, and they have gone over the total in four consecutive.

This matchup fits a system to play the over when the total is 200 points or more, and one team (Milwaukee) has gone over the total by 18 points or more in their previous game, and their opponent went over the total by 24 points or more in their previous game. This system is 156-94 (62%) in favor of the over. With both defenses playing so poorly, it is safe to expect a shootout tonight.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Utah Jazz +

The Jazz have won eight consecutive games over the Bobcats, and with Utah playing better recently I have to believe they will make it nine straight. Both teams are playing in a black-to-back situation, and both have won three of their last six games. It is Utah's scoring ability that gives them a significant advantage in this game. The Jazz are averaging 93.1 points per game, but are more than capable of scoring in the triple digits. They are also a much better shooting team than the Bobcats, especially from the three throw line.

The Jazz are coming off a bad loss last night, but they are a team that has responded well to a poor performance in the past. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a loss by more than 10 points. Playing in a back-to-back situation has not had as big of an impact on Utah as it has Charlotte. The Bobcats are 14-31 ATS when playing without a day of rest. They are also 14-36 ATS against teams from the Northwest division.

I don't think home court advantage will do much for the Bobcats in this game. Charlotte is 32-55 ATS in home games over the last three seasons. They are also 8-27 ATS when playing in a non-conference game. In the Bobcats recent win streak they have benefited from poor shooting performances from their opponents. It has certainly not been the Bobcats defense winning games because their points surrendered in their last give games is above their overall season average. I expect Utah to win this game straight up, but we will still take the points.

3* Main Event on North Carolina -

The Tar Heels are clearly the better team, and they are playing like one of the best teams in the country right now. They are coming off a tough three point loss to Texas, and I think they will respond with a big performance against Davidson in this game. North Carolina is averaging 78.7 points per game at home, but they should be able to put up an even bigger number than that against this soft Davidson defense.

The Wildcats have given up an average of 83.5 points per game on the road this season. They allowed 111 points against Duke, and against a prolific scoring team like North Carolina things could get out of hand very quickly. The Tar Heels are a great rebounding team with 41 boards per game including 13 on the offensive glass. Davidson has struggled to pull in rebounds, so I expect North Carolina to get a lot of second and third chance shot attempts.

The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against ACC opponents, and 8-20 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games. They have struggled on the road with a 19-40 ATS record, and are 5-11 ATS against teams winning over 60% of their games. The Tar Heels on the other hand have posted an 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 games following an ATS loss, and they are 22-8 ATS in home games against a team with a losing record. I expect North Carolina to pull away early and never look back.

4* Heavy Hitter on Cincinnati -

The Bearcats should easily be a double-digit favorite in this game, but we will happily take advantage of this oddsmakers oversight. Cincinnati has two very respectable losses this season, and they did a great job of responding to those back-to-back losses by winning straight up as an underdog earlier this week against Pittsburgh. Now they have the benefit of playing a traditional home game, a place where they are 7-0 straight up and 2-0 ATS this season.

Middle Tennessee is nowhere near as good as their 8-3 record indicates. They have played an extremely soft schedule and two of their three losses came by a double-digit margin. The only loss that didn't come by more than 10 points was a nine-point loss last week against Ole Miss in a game that was never as close as the final score. The Blue Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record, and they are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games.

You should play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points like Middle Tennessee when they average 74-78 points per game and are coming off a win by 15 points or more, and they are playing against a team that is averaging 67-74 points per game. This system identifies teams that are being overvalued by the oddsmakers. It has led to a 111-60 (65%) record against the spread.

3* Oddsmakers Error on Western Kentucky -

The Hilltoppers should have no problem winning this game in a blowout. They are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against Ohio Valley opponents, and they are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games against a team with a losing record on the road. Murray State is not a good team this year. They are 0-4 in road games, and a mere 5-5 overall this season. Western Kentucky has dominated at home with a perfect 5-0 record.

It is Western Kentucky's defense that gives them the biggest advantage in this game. They have held opponents to a mere 58 points per game at home this season. The Hilltoppers offense has struggled at times, but they will have no problem getting points on the board against a Racers defense that is allowing 77.7 points per game on the road.

The Racers have played an easy schedule in the month of December, and I think that has earned them a little too much credibility with the oddsmakers. They are 0-8 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games. They also have a long history of under performing on the road against non-conference opponents with a 31-51 ATS record. I like the Hilltoppers to pick up a double-digit victory in this game with a strong defensive performance.

3* No Doubt Rout on Kentucky -

This game has blowout written all over it. The Wildcats are coming off a tough loss to North Carolina, and they will want to respond with a big win over Belmont in this game. The Bruins are in a slump right now having lost their last two straight games. They were blown out in their last outing on the road against Denver, and there is no reason to expect a different result in this game as they face one of the best teams in the country.

It will be hard for Belmont to keep pace with this Kentucky team that averages 84.7 points per game at home this season, especially since the Wildcats defense has been very stingy by holding opponents to 60.6 points in those games. Belmont is a poor rebounding team, and that puts them at a huge disadvantage in this matchup. Kentucky averages 48 rebounds per game with 16 on the offensive glass in home games. Meanwhile, the Bruins have averaged just 30 rebounds per game on the road, with just eight of those coming as offensive rebounds.

I expect Kentucky to get a lot of second and third chance shot attempts in this game. They should pull away early and never look back in this matchup. The Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games, and 4-1 in their last five home games against a team with a winning record on the road. Belmont on the other hand is 2-10 ATS in road games against teams shooting over 45 percent on the season. Lay the points on the Wildcats because this game will be a blowout.

3* Total Annihilator on Minnesota/LA Lakers UNDER

The total in this game is far too high given the way these teams matchup. The Lakers defense has played well at home when you consider the fact that their opponents are averaging over 101 points per game. The Timberwolves are not a strong shooting team averaging just 42.6 percent from the field. I don

3* No Doubt Rout on Minnesota -

Nebraska-Omaha has been on a five game run, but they have benefited from a soft schedule. Four of those five games have come against teams that do not even play division one basketball. They also benefited from an unsustainable shooting percentage, and I think that ends tonight against the Golden Gophers. Minnesota has held opponents to a mere 62 points per game at home, while scoring an average of 78.9 points in those games.

The Mavericks have struggled against good opponents. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against a team with a winning record. Their defense has been soft this year, allowing an average of 76.2 points per game on the road. They are at a big disadvantage on the boards in this matchup. The Gophers are +5 in rebounding margin at home, while Nebraska-Omaha is -3 when playing on the road. Minnesota has played a much stronger schedule than the Mavericks, and the talent gap between these teams will show on the scoreboard.

Minnesota is 9-2 ATS at home when coming off a home win. They are also 15-6 ATS when coming off a win regardless of venue. The Gophers are undefeated straight up and against the spread at home this season. Minnesota is a great ball control team averaging just 10 turnovers per game at home, while the Mavericks have averaged 14 turnovers per game on the road. Nebraska-Omaha has yet to face a defense as talented as Minnesota, and I expect turnovers to be a major issue for them in this game.

4* Total Dominator on Utah/Atlanta UNDER

The Jazz are playing some pretty solid defense recently, and they have gone under the total in three of their last four games. I don

3* Oddsmakers Error on Texas State +

This line seems to be overvaluing the Utes. There have not been many games on the schedule that look very challenging for Utah, aside from their last game against a BYU team that we now know was overrated coming into the season. That was a big win over a rivalry opponent, and I have the Utes playing in a letdown situation tonight. Its likely Utah is still going to win this game, but Texas State should give them a scare, and 15 points is simply too many to pass up.

The Bobcats are a great ball control team. They average just 13 turnovers per game. They run a slow paced game, so statistically they may not immediately look like a strong team offensively, but the talent is certainly there. Texas State has a positive number in rebounding margin, averaging 33 boards per game while opponents average just 31 per game. The Bobcats are shooting over 44 percent from the field on the road this year, and have been lethal from beyond the three point line.

Texas State is 13-3 against the spread in road games when coming off a double-digit loss. They are also 12-3 ATS when playing a second consecutive road game or more. You should play against home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like Utah when they are shooting 32 to 36.5 percent on three point attempts and playing against a defense that has allowed over 36.5 percent on three point attempts. This system is 166-102 (62%) against the spread. This angle is extremely significant because the Bobcats vulnerability has been their perimeter defense, but the Utes are not a big scoring team from the outside.

3* Main Event on Oklahoma City -

Since Derrick Rose went out the Bulls have lost 10 of their 13 games. They are not just losing, they are getting crushed. They have covered the spread two times in that 13 game span. Now we catch them up against one of the hottest teams in the league when they face the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder are averaging 107.7 points per game at home and they should have no problem outscoring a Bulls team that averages just 90.5 points per game.

The Thunder also have the advantage from a rest profile perspective. They had the night off yesterday and will face a Bulls team that is coming off a demoralizing loss to Houston last night. Chicago was on the road again last night, and at this point they have to be throwing in the towel until they can get some rest, and regroup playing at home. Their game against Houston was not even close, getting beat by 15-points last night.

Oklahoma City has covered the spread in six of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Bulls have posted a 7-17 ATS record this season. In the month of December Chicago is 1-8 against the spread. Don't let the Bulls defense trick you into thinking they have a chance in this game. The Thunder are 16-5 ATS against good defensive teams that have allowed a shooting percentage on defense of less than 43 percent over the last three seasons. The bleeding won't stop in Oklahoma City for the Bulls, so lay the points on the Thunder.

4* Vegas Insider on Morehead St -

The advantages for Morehead State in this game are big. First, they have dominated opponents in rebounding margin, especially when playing at home. The Eagles are 3-1 in home games, averaging 45 rebounds per game with 16 coming on the offensive end of the court. Meanwhile, South Dakota has been losing the rebounding margin.

Another problem for the Coyotes is their lack of pressure defense. South Dakota is averaging just five steals per game, and without any kind of pressure defense this game will get out of hand early. Morehead State averages 86 points per game at home. With their significant rebounding advantage, and their ability to draw fouls they are going to get extra shot attempts and score more points against South Dakota. The Eagles average 68 shot attempts per game at home while South Dakota is averaging just 55 attempts from the field.

The Eagles are coming off a pair of tough losses, but I expect them to bounce back with a strong performance tonight. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss. South Dakota has lost four consecutive games coming into this matchup, and they are showing no signs of improvement. Expect Morehead State to have a lot more shot attempts from the field and free throw line in this game, making the single digit spread an easy number to cover.

4* Total Annihilator on Bulls/Rockets UNDER

Both Houston and Chicago are coming off close losses, and I think they will show up with a defensive mentality in this game because of it. Chicago lost by a single point against Orlando, while Houston was crushed in their last game by Sacramento. The Rockets are coming off a three game road stretch, where they allowed an average of 109.7 points, and that has created a lot of value on the under in this game because their defense plays substantially better in home games.

Houston is allowing 95.5 points per game at home this season, and they have the luxury of facing a Bulls team that averages just 90.2 points per game on the road. I don't expect the Rockets offense to have a big night against the stingy Bulls defense, and that puts even more value on the under. Chicago has held opponents to just 92.4 points per game this season.

The under is 20-7 when Houston is playing six or less games in the last 14 days. It is also 35-18 when the Rockets are at home and coming off three straight games allowing 100 points or more. The Bulls are also trending towards the under. They have gone under the total in five of their last six games, and the under is 4-1 in Chicago's last five games when coming off an ATS loss. With both teams playing with at least a day of rest, this game should turn out to be a defensive battle.

3* No Doubt Rout on DePaul -

The Blue Demons have several significant matchup advantages in this game. It starts on the defensive end of the court. Houston Baptist has allowed an average of 77.7 points per game this year, and that number bumps up to 80.7 points surrendered when they are playing on the road. The Huskies are 1-6 in road games this season, and defending a DePaul team that averages 78.6 points per game will be no easy task to accomplish.

Houston Baptist has struggled to get points on the board in road games, averaging a mere 61.3 points per game. The Huskies are negative in rebounding margin this season, while the Blue Demons sit with a +4 figure in that area. DePaul is a great ball control team averaging 14 turnovers per game. They face a Huskies team that has a poor pressure defense, getting just four steals per game.

Against common opponents this season Houston Baptist is 0-3. They have committed an average of 18.3 turnovers in those games, and have been getting crushed on the boards. The Huskies are a poor three point shooting team, averaging just 30.8 percent on their attempts. DePaul on the other hand, has shot 37 percent from beyond the three point line. Getting open shots should not be an issue in this game since the Huskies have a poor perimeter defense. Houston Baptist has allowed opponents to shoot 37.3 percent on three point attempts in road games this year.

4* Heavy Hitter on Western Michigan +

The Drake Bulldogs are not as good as their 6-3 record, and they have not received a lot of benefit when playing at home this year. The Bulldogs are 2-2 at home straight-up, and 1-2 against the spread in those games. They have lost two straight, and are shooting below 40 percent from the field in their last two outings.

Western Michigan has been solid defensively this year. They are holding opponents to just 62.2 points per game. They have played a tough schedule, and and have one common opponent with the Bulldogs. The Broncos have a six point win, while Drake suffered a 12 point loss against New Mexico State. The Bronco's stingy perimeter defense will be difficult for the Bulldogs to overcome since they rely heavily on their three-point shooting ability to win games.

Drake is 0-6 ATS when coming off a home loss by 10 points or more. The Bulldogs are also 4-15 ATS in home games when coming off a performance shooting 20 percent or worse on three point attempts. The Broncos on the other hand are 4-0 ATS when coming off a loss, and I think they will put on a strong showing at the Knapp Center tonight.

3* Oddsmakers Error on UAB -

Chattanooga has four wins this season, only one of which has come against a division one school, and it was against the 4-8 IUPUI Jaguars. The Mocs have been blown out by a double-digit margin in five of their seven losses this season. Chattanooga is a very bad team, and they are up against a Blazers team that is 8-2 on the year and coming off four consecutive wins.

This game has blowout written all over it. The Blazers should score at will against a Chattanooga team that has allowed an average of 88 points per game on the road. The Mocs are 1-6 in road games, while the Blazers are a perfect 6-0 at home. UAB has averaged 78.9 points per game against opponents who have surrendered an average of just 72.4 points so they should be able to put up huge offensive numbers against Chattanooga tonight.

The Blazers are 28-13 ATS in home games when coming off a performance in which they scored 80 points or more. UAB has dominated the boards this year averaging 50 rebounds per game, 16 on the offensive glass, while allowing opponents just 33 rebounds in those games. That +17 figure in rebounding margin gives them a big advantage against any opponent they face. The Blazers have also been great at avoiding turnovers, and they should score at-will in this matchup against the Mocs.

4* Vegas Insider on Toronto Raptors -

I think we are getting a lot of value on Toronto after Charlotte's uncharacteristic shooting performance on Tuesday. They made 8 of 17 attempts from beyond the three point line, but Charlotte is actually last in the league in that department shooting just 29.7 percent on the season. I don't expect that to be a performance they can repeat, especially against a Raptors team that has won three of their last four games.

The Bobcats are not a big scoring threat. They average just 89.5 points per game on the road, and they should struggle mightily against Toronto. The Bobcats are playing in a back-to-back situation after facing off with Sacramento last night. Toronto on the other hand is playing on three days of rest, so they will be the fresh team on the court tonight.

The Bobcats are 22-46 ATS when playing six or more games in the last 10 games, and they are 14-29 ATS when coming off a game they covered the spread. This is a revenge game for the Raptors after losing by just two points earlier this season. Toronto is 72-48 ATS when revenging a loss of three points or less.

3* Total Dominator on Jazz/Magic OVER

Both of these teams have played poorly on the defensive end of the court. The Jazz are allowing over 103 points per game on the road this year, and Orlando has allowed over 101 points per game overall. Their lack of defense puts a lot of value on the over. The over is 20-8 in Orlando's last 28 home games against non-conference opponents.

In their first five games at Amway Center the Magic were allowing 89.6 points per game. They have since given up 107.3 points per per game in their last six games there. The Jazz are also trending heavily to the over after losing back-to-back games where they gave up 100 points to San Antonio and 117 points against Miami. Since both defenses have been playing so poorly I expect to see big offensive numbers from both of these teams.

The over is 7-2 in Orlando's last nine games against Northwest division opponents. In the last seven head-to-head meetings between these teams the over has a 6-1 record. After failing to cover the spread in six of their last eight games, Utah has an 83-56 record towards the over, and given the way these teams matchup there is no reason to believe these trends won't continue.

4* No Brainer on UMass -

UMass might be one of the most underrated teams in the country right now. They have yet to garner any respect from the oddsmakers, and that has led to an 8-1 ATS record this season. The Minutemen are a perfect 9-0 straight up, with impressive wins over Boston College, New Mexico, Clemson and BYU. They have played a tough schedule and have been winning in dominating fashion all year.

Ohio has played a soft schedule through the first nine games of the season. Their 10 point loss against Ohio State seems to be earning the Bobcats a little too much credibility, but I don't put a lot of stock in that game. It was against an in-state opponent, and came early in the season when teams are still working out their early season issues. The Bobcats were crushed by 17 points against a very mediocre Oakland team, so I can only imagine how bad things will be against a tough opponent like UMass.

UMass has dominated the offensive glass, and they have done a great job of drawing fouls. Those extra shot attempts from winning the rebounding margin, and points from the free throw line are more than enough of an advantage to cover such a small line. UMass is no stranger to playing on the road this year, so I don't expect Ohio to draw much benefit from home court advantage. The Minutemen are a perfect 6-0 on the road, and it will take a better team than the Bobcats to end their undefeated record.

This matchup fits into a system to play on a team like UMass that has beaten the spread by 30 or more points combined in their last five games when they are a team from a second tier division 1 conference and playing against an opponent from a mid-major conference. This system is 57-26 (69%) against the spread.

5* Non-Conference Game of the Month on Tennessee -

The Volunteers have three losses coming into this game, but all three of those games have been played against very good opponents, and their margin of loss has been in the single digits. Those losses have also come either on the road or a neutral court games. Tonight they get to play host to an NC State team that is nowhere near as good as their 7-2 record would indicated. The Wolfpack have yet to win a game over decent opponent. Their last three wins have come against teams that are a combined 12-20 on the season.

The Wolfpack have a double-digit loss on the road against Cincinnati, and they were beat in overtime against North Carolina Central. The Volunteers will easily be one of the best opponents they have faced, and I expect them to struggle mightily on the road in this game. Tennessee has been dominant at home this year scoring 83 points per game, while their defense has held opponents to a mere 63.7 points per game. That has led to a 4-0 record in home games. The Volunteers respond well when coming off a loss. After losing to UTEP they had a chance for revenge against Xavier, and they took full advantage by putting a 15-point beat down on the Musketeers.

The Wolfpack are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games, while the Volunteers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games played at home. Tennessee is also 13-5 ATS when coming off a straight-up loss. Mark Gottfried is 3-14 ATS as a head coach when coming off a close home win by three points or less. NC State was lucky to squeak by (5-6) Detroit, and I don't think that luck will continue today against this undervalued Volunteers team.

3* Bailout Blowout on Denver Nuggets +

The Thunder's win streak should come to an end today against the Denver Nuggets. This is Oklahoma City's fifth game since last Tuesday, while the Nuggets are playing in just third third game during that same time span. The Nuggets have been dangerously good at home this season posting a 7-3 record, and they have been on fire winning 10 of their last 13 games overall.

Denver is not an easy place to play. Whether it be the altitude, or the home fan base. winning at the Pepsi Center is no easy task to accomplish. Denver averages 102 points per game, and they should score at-will against a Thunder defense that is allowing 100.6 points per game on the road. Denver is +6 in rebounding margin at home this season, and in a game between two very good teams winning the battle of the boards will go a long way towards winning this game.

This matchup fits into a system to play against road favorites like Oklahoma City when they have won over 75% of their games on the season and have covered the spread in four of their last five five games, when they are playing in a matchup against a team with a winning record. This system is 60-24 (71%) against the spread. It is a great way to identify teams that have been overvalued by the oddsmakers.

3* Oddsmakers Error on New Mexico State +

There is a lot of value on the Aggies in this rivalry game against the Lobos. New Mexico has already been a big letdown this season, dropping games against UMass and Kansas, both by 16 points or more. Defense has been the issue for the Lobos, allowing 72 points per game. They will struggle to slow down their in-state rival in this matchup because the Aggies are averaging 75.2 points per game this season.

The Lobos have seriously under-performed against the oddsmakers expectations this year. They are just 2-4 against the spread, yet they still find themselves laying a big margin in this matchup that has historically gone either way as far as the ATS winner is concerned. This is a rematch game for the Aggies, who lost by just nine points earlier this season in a game that was much closer than the final score. I expect New Mexico State to play another close game against the Lobos, and it is very unlikely they will have another 38.7 percent shooting performance in round two between these teams.

The Aggies are a hot team right now, posting a 4-1 ATS record in their last five games. The Lobos on the other hand are 2-6 in their last eight games against non-conference opponents. New Mexico is also 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. The Lobos have played a soft schedule, and they are a serial under-performer against good teams. They have a 1-5 ATS record in their last six games against teams winning 60% of their games or more.

3* No Doubt Rout on Charlotte +

The Florida State Seminoles are getting far too much respect from the oddsmakers. Charlotte is a very good team. They are 7-2 overall this season, and 6-1 against the spread. The 49ers are averaging an impressive 77.1 points per game, and they will easily be one of the best offensive teams Florida State has seen this season.

The 49ers are a great rebounding team. They are +7 in rebounding margin, while the Seminoles are just +3 against an inferior schedule. Charlotte is also a great foul drawing team, and extra rebounds, combined with extra attempts from the free throw line gives them a very significant advantage in this game.

If that wasn't enough, Charlotte has also done a better job of controlling the ball this season. They average 14 turnovers per game and are only improving in that area as the season progresses. They have had 14 or less turnovers in each of their last three games. The Seminoles on the other hand average 17 turnovers per game and they have forced less than 10 turnovers from their opponents in three of their last five games.

The 49ers are 12-4 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons, and they are up against a Seminoles team that is just 2-10 ATS when playing their first game in the last seven days or more. You should play against favorites like Florida State when they are holding opponents to under 40 percent shooting and they are committing 14.5 to 17.5 turnovers per game when they are facing an opponent that is a good defensive team allowing just 40 percent to 42.5 percent from opponents, and they are a good ball handling team committing less than 14.5 turnovers per game. This system is 117-63 (65%) against the spread over the last five seasons.