3* NBA Total Dominator on Timberwolves/Lakers UNDER

While these are two of the worst defensive teams in the league, I think the total here has been set too high. The Lakers are coming off a draining win at San Antonio on Friday and I just don't see them looking to push the pace at all tonight. This will also be the 2nd time that these two teams have faced off in the last month and I look for a more inspired effort defensively from the Lakers than the first meeting, which resulted in a 1-point home loss.

The other key here is that both of these team are not all that great offensively. The Lakers are only averaging 97.6 ppg over their last 5 and the Timberwolves are even worse at 96.2 ppg over their last 5. The UNDER is 5-1 in Los Angeles' last 6 and 3-0 in the Timberwolves last 3. The UNDER is also a strong 15-4 in Minnesota's last 19 home games against terrible defensive teams that are allowing opponents to shoot 48% or better from the field.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. The UNDER is 41-15 when you have a total of 200 or more points with a home team that is off a loss by 10 or more points to a division rival playing on a Sunday. That's 73% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAB No Doubt Rout on George Washington -

I cashed in on the Colonials as a 9-point home favorite Thursday against DePaul and I'm backing them again as a small road favorite against Penn State. The Nittany Lions are not as good as their 9-1 record would indicate, as they have benefited greatly from a soft schedule. Keep in mind that despite that strong record, Penn State is just 1-6 ATS.

I look for this one to be won on the defensive end and the Colonials hold a big edge on that side of the ball. George Washington is giving up just 59.2 ppg against teams that are averaging 64.8 ppg. Penn State on the other hand is allowing 68.1 ppg against teams that are averaging just 67.6 ppg.

Offensively these two teams are both scoring right around 73-74 ppg, but the Colonials are shooting 47.5% from the field while the Nittany Lions are only connecting on 43.4%. George Washington should have no problem building up a comfortable lead and covering this one without any problem.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play. Road favorites with an excellent defense that is allowing 63 or less points/game against an opponent with an average defense that is giving up 67 to 74 points/game are 195-124 ATS  since 1997 after leading in their previous game by 15 or at the half. That's a 61% long-term system in favor of the Colonials.

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Bucks +

This might seem like a small spread for the Clippers against the Bucks, but I look for Los Angeles to struggle to come out with a whole lot of intensity in this one. The Clippers had their 9-game winning streak snapped in a 96-104 loss at Washington last night. Not only will they be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, but this will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 days.

Anytime a team has a lengthy winning streak snapped like the Clippers just did, their tends to be a minor slump that follows. As for the Bucks, they are going to come out extremely motivated here and will have a big advantage coming into this contest on a full 3 days of rest. Milwaukee is just 1-5 in their last 6 games but three of those losses came on the road against the likes of the Cavs, Mavs and Thunder. The Bucks are 6-4 SU and 7-3 ATS at home this season. I look for Milwaukee to keep this one close throughout and think there's an excellent chance they win this one outright.

The Clippers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 off a SU loss and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Milwaukee is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 off a SU loss and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 against an opponent who allowed 100 or more points in their last game. These trends combine to form a 76% (45-14) system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee!

5* Big Chalk Game of the Month on Stanford -

The Cardinal should have no problem covering this number against Denver. The Pioneers were just lost at home by 10 points to UNI and each of their 3 previous losses (all on the road) have come by at least 16 points. Stanford's only two losses this season have come against Duke on a neutral site and at DePaul. They are a perfect 3-0 at home, where they are outscoring opponents by 17.3 ppg.

The big key here is that Denver is awful defensively. They allowed UNI to shoot 70% from the floor, which was the third time this season they allowed an opponent to shoot 60% or better. Stanford comes in shooting 45.4% against teams that are only allowing opponents on average to shoot 41.4%. The Cardinal have too much size and should score at will against the Pioneers inside. Defensively Stanford is only allowing opponents to shoot 37.1% at home and are allowing just 59.7 ppg. This one has blowout written all over it as the Cardinal should win here by 20+ rather easily.

Denver is 15-39-1 ATS in their last 55 road games against a team with a winning record, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 versus the Pac-12 and  3-11 ATS in their last 14 games against an opponent that is shooting 45% or better offensively and allowing 42% or less defensively. These trends combine to form a 76% (60-19) system in favor of the Cardinal. Take Stanford!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Michigan +

I know the Wolverines are coming into this game off back-to-back shocking losses at home to New Jersey Tech and Eastern Michigan, but I look for Michigan to bounce back and give Arizona all they can handle tonight. The Wolverines have wins over both Oregon (70-63) and Syracuse (68-65) and a close loss to a very good Villanova squad (55-60). Simply put those ugly loss for Michigan have created some big time value here, as they would not be catching double-digits had they won both of those games.

I know they just failed in this spot, but the Wolverines are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 off a home loss. Michigan is also 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games after playing 3 consecutive home games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 after scoring less than 50 points and 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 against the Pac-12.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points who are off an upset loss as a favorite are 226-142 ATS in the month of December since 1997. That's a 61% long-term system in favor of the Wolverines. Take Michigan!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Bowling Green -

The Falcons are showing great value here as a small home favorite against Cleveland State. Bowling Green is one of the more improved teams in the country under first year head coach Chris Jans, who was one of the top assistants at Wichita State the last seven years. Cleveland State is a quality team, but have really struggled on the road. The Vikings are just 1-3 away from home with the only win coming against a below average Marshall squad.

One of the areas where Jans has made his presence felt is on the defensive side of the floor. Opponents are shooting just 38.9% from the field against the Falcons this season. Cleveland State has shot just 38.9% from the floor on the road and I just don't see them being able to generate enough offense here.

Bowling Green is a perfect 8-0 ATS after allowing 60 points or less in each of their last 2 games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 20-6 ATS in their last 26 versus the Horizon League. These trends combine to form a 83% (33-7) system in favor of the Falcons. Take Bowling Green!

5* NBA Pre-New Years Non-Conference Game of the Year on Hornets +

Charlotte is showing big time value here as a double-digit road dog against the Grizzlies. This is largely due to the Hornets coming in just 1-8 on the road, while Memphis is a dominant 10-1 at home. While I'm not expecting Charlotte to come away with a win, I look for them to have no problem covering this spread.

Keep in mind that these two teams have already faced off once this season. The Grizzlies were fortunate to come away with a 71-69 victory at Charlotte, as they shot just 36.2% from the field. That close defeat is going to have the Hornets believing they can win this game. You also have to like the fact that Charlotte comes in off back-to-back wins over New York and Boston. This team is a lot better than their record would indicate and are finally starting to get healthy.

The other key here is that both of these teams like to play at a slow pace, which should lead to a low-scoring game. I also like how Charlotte matches up with the Grizzlies and could actually see them having the edge here in bench production. That makes the 10-points we are getting that much more valuable, as it's going to be extremely difficult for Memphis to pull away.

Adding to all of this is a strong system supporting a fade of the Grizzlies. Favorites of 10 or more points that have won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games and are playing 6 or less games in 14 days are just 20-47 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 70% system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Pacers +

The Pacers are showing some great value here as a 8.5-point underdog. Indiana is going to come out extremely motivated after losing 6 straight and are catching the Raptors in a good spot. Toronto is coming off a crushing 101-105 loss at Cleveland last time out and I look for them to struggle to match the Pacers' intensity.

It's also worth noting that Indiana has been a profitable team to back away from home. The Pacers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games and perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Toronto adds to this with a mere 3-7-1 ATS record over their last 11 home games against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games.

Another thing to note is that while they have come in losing efforts the Pacers have been connecting from long distance. Indiana has made 9 3-pointers in each of their last two games and are 9-1 ATS over the last 2 seasons when they come in having made 9 or more in back-to-back games.

Adding to all of this is a strong system in play backing a fade of the Raptors. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off a road cover where they lost outright as an underdog and are playing with 2 days rest are 35-72 (33%) ATS since 1996. That's a 67% system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Magic +

I look for the Magic to come out inspired against their division rivals after what took place in Wednesday's heartbreaking 89-91 loss at home to the Wizards. Orlando blew a 89-84 lead with less than a minute to play, while giving up the game-winning basket on an inbounds alley oop with 0.8 seconds left on the clock.

Prior to that the Magic had won back-to-back road games at Utah and Sacramento and have continued to be one of the most underrated teams in the league early this season. That's evident by the fact that Orlando is just 9-15 SU and 14-10 ATS. The Magic have been especially good at covering on the road, where they are 11-5 ATS.

The key here is that this line has been inflated due to Atlanta coming in having won 8 straight and covering the spread in each of their last 5. This is simply too many points for a division game, especially when you consider that Orlando has won 2 of the last 3 with their only loss coming by 3-points. I also think it's going to be difficult for the Hawks to get up for this game, knowing that they have a game at Orlando on deck tomorrow night. 

Adding to all of this is a strong system backing a fade of Atlanta. Home favorites off a home win by 10 or more points are just 42-80 ATS on Friday nights over the last 5 seasons. That's a 66% system in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando!

3* Thunder/Cavaliers NBA TNT Main Event on Thunder -

Oklahoma City is showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Cavaliers. While Cleveland comes in riding a 8-game winning streak, the Thunder have won 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall. Due to Oklahoma City's slow start with Durant and Westbrook sidelined and just how good the Western Conference, the Thunder find themselves in desperation mode in December.

As impressive as the Cavaliers run has been, you have to keep in mind that all 8 wins have come against the Eastern Conference, with 5 of the 8 at home. Their 3 road wins came against the Knicks, Raptors (without DeRozan) and the Nets. I think it's led to Cleveland getting a little too much respect here. Not only are the Thunder one of the elite teams in the league when healthy, they have one of the best homecourt advantages.

Oklahoma City is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games against a team that's won 60% or more of their road games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a 81% (29-7) system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

4* NCAAB No Limit Game of the Month on George Washington -

While DePaul is off to an impressive 6-1 start, I look for the Blue Demons to struggle to be competitive here against the Colonials. This will be DePaul's first real road test of the season as their only other away game came against an inferior in-state foe in Chicago State. George Washington is a perfect 3-0 at home, where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 33.4 ppg.

Offensively both of these teams come in averaging a lot of points. The Blue Demons are scoring 79.7 ppg and the Colonials are putting up 72.9 ppg. However, defensively there's a quite a difference here. George Washington is allowing just 58.0 ppg against teams averaging 62.9 ppg, while DePaul is allowing 68.4 ppg against teams averaging just 66.2 ppg. With the Blue Demons' offense figuring to not be up to par on the road, I look for the Colonials defense to be the difference and allow George Washington to win here by double-digits rather easily.

DePaul is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games against teams who are outscoring opponents by 12+ ppg and George Washington is 29-14 ATS in their last 43 home games after scoring 75+ in two straight games.

Adding to this is a strong system in play telling us to fade DePaul. Road underdogs who are an excellent offensive team (76+ ppg) against an excellent defensive teams (63 or less ppg) that come in off 3 straight wins by 10 or more are just 47-90 ATS since 1997. That's a 66% system in favor of the Colonials. Take George Washington!

4* NCAAB Late Night Bailout Game of the Month on Cal -

The Golden Bears are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against Wyoming. Cal's only loss on the season came against a Final Four contender in Texas. The Cowboys are also off to an impressive start at 8-1, but that lone loss came in their only other true road game against SMU, which they lost convincingly 53-66. It's also worth noting that Wyoming has played a soft schedule to this point. While they have a big win over Colorado on their resume, the Buffaloes have a lot of improving to do if they are going to make the NCAA Tournament.

The big key here is that the Cowboys just aren't as good on the road as they are at home. Wyoming went 14-4 at home last year, compared to just 4-9 on the road. Cal on the other hand was 13-4 at home last year and that's that much more impressive when you consider they play in a pretty solid Pac-12 conference.

Wyoming is just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Cal on the other hand is 9-2-1 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games. These trends combine to form a 78% (28-8) system in favor of the Golden Bears. Take Cal!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Denver +

The Pioneers are showing some great value here as a home underdog against Northern Iowa. The Panthers just recently cracked the Top 25 (No. 23) and while this is a solid squad, I think we are seeing them overvalued on the road. Magness Arena is a difficult place for opposing teams to play, especially a small school like UNI that doesn't do a ton of traveling. This will be just the second true road game for the Panthers. While they won the first, they needed overtime to escape SF Austin with a 79-77 win. Denver is just 4-3 overall, but are a perfect 3-0 at home with all three wins coming by double-digits.

Couple other factors here that I think are working in our favor is that Northern Iowa has a huge game on deck at VCU this Saturday, which is going to make it difficult for the Panthers to give a 3-loss Pioneers team their full attention. The other being that both of these teams like to slow the game down and rely on their defense to win games, which makes the 3.5 points we are getting that much more valuable.

Northern Iowa is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games after playing 3 straight as a favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after scoring 30 points or less in the 1st half in each of their last two games. Denver on the other hand is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. These trends combine to form a 82% (31-7) system in favor of the Pioneers. Take Denver!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Timberwolves +

This is a great spot to back the Timberwolves at home and fade the Trail Blazers. While Portland has opened up their 5-game road trip with two wins and have won 5 straight overall, this figures to be a game where they aren't 100% motivated to play their best basketball. The Trail Blazers will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back road set and their 3rd road game in the last 4 days.

Minnesota on the other hand is going to come out desperate to get a win at home after losing 6 straight. While Portland will be playing with tired legs, the Timberwolves come in off a day of rest and will be playing just their 2nd game in 4 days. Portland is only outscoring opponents by 5.1 ppg on the road and Minnesota is only getting outscored by 7.0 ppg at home. Look for the Timberwolves to keep this one close throughout and potentially pull off the upset.

It's also worth noting that Minnesota lost by 16-points at home to Golden State last time they took the floor. The Timberwolves are a dominant 13-2 ATS over the last 3 seasons off a home loss by 10 or more points. Adding to this is a strong system in play. Underdogs of 10 or more points who have lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against an opponent that has won 8 or more of their last 10 are 205-130 ATS since 1996. That's a 61% long-term system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

5* NCAAB Non-Conference Vegas Insider Game of the Year on Purdue -

The Boilermakers should have no problem covering this spread at home against Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are just 2-2 on the season with their two wins coming against the likes of Central Arkansas and Belhaven. The real key who they lost to. They lost by 5-points at home to Lamar, whose only other win on the season is against the LSU-Alexandria Generals. Lamar also has losses by 39-points to SMU and 37 to ISU. Arkansas State also lost at home to Tennessee-Martin, who has double-digit defeats against both Marquette and Nebraska. Winning here by 20-points isn't going to be an issue for Purdue, who has a 52-point win over Grambling, 40-point win over Samford, 21-point win over Missouri and 20-points wins over IUPU and IPFW.

Adding to all of this is a strong system suggesting a fade of the Red Wolves. Road underdogs of 10 or more points who are off a home win where they scored 85 or more points and only returned 1 or 0 starters are 32-67 ATS since 1997. That's a 68% long-term system in favor of the Boilermakers. Take Purdue!

4* NBA Pacific Division Game of the Month on Lakers -

This is a great spot to back the Lakers at home as a small favorite against the Kings. Los Angeles is going to come out highly motivated after dropping 3 straight, especially after losing by 17 at home last time out against the Pelicans.

While Sacramento comes in off a 101-92 home win over the Jazz, the Kings remain without star center DeMarcus Cousins. Sacramento is just 2-4 without Cousins and he's clearly a big loss against the small frontcourt of LA. Not only are the Kings without their best player, but this is brutal scheduling scenario. Sacramento will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back and their 4th in 5 days overall.

The Lakers are 19-4 (83%) ATS in their last 23 games versus teams who average 20 or less assists/game. Adding to this is that it's no secret that LA is not a great defensive team, but it's a lot easier to play defense when the opposing team doesn't share the basketball. It's also worth noting that head coach Byron Scott has went to a more defensive lineup, replacing starters Jeremy Lin and Carlos Boozer with Ed Davis and Ronnie Price. Take the Lakers!

4* NBA Vegas Insider on Heat +

This might seem like a good spot to take the Suns as a small home favorite against the Heat, who have lost 4 straight, but I look for Phoenix to struggle in this one. The Suns are coming off a heartbreaking 120-121 overtime loss at the buzzer to the Clippers last night. Not only will Phoenix be playing on no rest, this will be their 4th game in 5 nights.

The Suns simply aren't going to have a whole lot left in the tank and I wouldn't be surprised if the Heat won this game outright. Miami is clearly going to be motivated after 4 straight double-digit losses and with Wade, Bosh and Deng all healthy I'm expecting the Heat to deliver one of the better performances of the season against the Suns.

Miami is 20-6 ATS over their last 26 road games with a total of 200 or more points and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. The Suns are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 when playing on 0 days rest.

Adding to this is a strong system telling us to fade the Suns. Home teams who have lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, who are playing their 4th game in 5 days are just 86-139 (38%) ATS since 1996. That's a 62% system in favor of the Heat. Take Miami!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Texas A&M +

The Aggies are showing great value here as a 5.5-point underdog against their former Big 12 rivals. Despite a 6-1 start that includes an impressive home win over Arizona State and their only defeat coming by 2-points at Dayton, Texas A&M is not getting the respect they deserve because of three straight seasons without a NCAA Tournament berth. However, this is the best team Texas A&M has filed since Billy Kennedy took over and a big reason for that is the addition of two key transfers. Jalen Jones came over from SMU and is leading the team with 12.4 ppg and Danuel House is 2nd at 11.8 after transferring in from Houston.

It's not just Jones and House that have sparked the Aggies strong start. Texas A&M has provided a balanced attack with 6 different players average 7 or more points/game. Baylor is a quality team, but are missing one of their key players in senior guard Kenny Cherry (10.3 ppg). His absence has put a ton of pressure on Taurean Prince and Royce O'Neal to shoulder their scoring load and I believe it has the Bears vulnerable. Look for the Aggies to keep this one close and potentially win here outright.

Home teams who have allowed 65 points or less in 2 straight games against an opponent off 2 straight wins by 6 points or less are a mere 49-90 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Aggies. Take Texas A&M!

3* NBA Over/Under Total Annihilator on Mavs/Grizzlies UNDER

With the Grizzlies having lost two of their last three, including a 101-107 home loss to the Spurs last Friday, I look for Memphis to be all business against the Mavericks tonight, especially considering Dallas took 3 of 4 against the Grizzlies last year. With the Mavs coming in leading the league in scoring at 110.6 ppg, I believe it's resulted in an inflated total here. Memphis has the leagues' best defense, allowing just 93.5 ppg. Look for the Grizzlies to slow this game way down and really make Dallas work on both sides of the ball.

It's also worth noting that this will be the Grizzlies 3rd straight home game and they are well rested. Memphis hasn't played back-to-back games since early November. Adding to this is the fact that the UNDER is 12-2 the Grizzlies last 14 games after playing two straight games as a home favorite. Average score in these games is just 184.1.

While the Mavericks have went over the total in 13 of 22 games this season, the UNDER is 5-2 in Dallas' last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record. We also find a strong system in play. UNDER is 30-8 since 1996 when you have a total of 200 or more with a road team that has gone over the total in 5 or more consecutive games who are an excellent offensive team (102+ ppg) and average defensively (92-98 ppg). That's a 79% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on Air Force -

The Falcons are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against Nebraska-Omaha. Air Force is a perfect 3-0 at home this season, where they are outscoring opponents by an average of 73 to 47 (+26 ppg), while the Mavericks are just 1-3 on the road getting outscored by 11.7 ppg. I see this one being decided on the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons are only giving up 58.7 ppg and holding opponents to just 38.7% shooting, while Nebraska-Omaha is allowing 80.0 ppg and 47.1% shooting.

Air Force is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 when they come in having won at least 4 of their last 6 and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games after being listed as an underdog in each of their last two games. These trends combine to form a dynamite 81% (35-8) system in favor of the Falcons. Take Air Force!

5* NBA No Limit Game of the Month on Pacers -

While Indiana has lost 4 straight and the Hawks have won 6 in a row, I think the value is clearly with the Pacers at basically a pick'em at home. Not only will Indiana be out for revenge after a 10-point loss in Atlanta earlier this season, they are going to be extremely motivated to get a win after getting swept on their 4-game road trip.

A couple keys here that favors the Pacers is they are a lot healthier this time around than they were in that first meeting against the Hawks. David West and C.J. Watson are both back from injuries, plus Rodney Stuckey is playing a much bigger role than he was early in the season. The other factor is that Atlanta is in a tough spot after playing Denver yesterday. Not only will the Hawks be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, this will be there 5th game in the last 7 days. Indiana on the other hand comes in off 2 full days of rest.

There's also a strong system telling us to fade Atlanta. Road underdogs who are a poor defensive team that is allowing 99+ points/game on the season after allowing 85 points or less in each of their last two are just 5-23 ATS since 1996. That's a dynamite 82% system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana!

4* NCAAB ATS Blowout Game of the Month on Cal -

The Golden Bears should have no problem cruising to an easy win at Nevada this afternoon. The Wolfpack are way down this season and the books have been slow to react, thus creating great opportunities to fade this team early on. Nevada has lost 5 straight with the last 3 coming against the likes of Weber State, Nebraska-Omaha and Long Beach State. The only loss on the season for Cal is a neutral site game against Texas, who is a legit Final 4 contender. The Bears did struggle last time out, needing double-overtime to beat Montana at home, but that should have them coming out focused against Nevada.

Wolfpack are 0-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons against teams who are outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game. Nevada is also just 1-10 ATS when off a road loss of 10 or more points. These two trends combine to form a dynamite 94% (16-1) system in favor of the Golden Bears. Take Cal!

4* Eastern Conference Total of the Month on Wizards/Celtics UNDER

The books have set the total too high in Sunday's matchup between the Wizards and Celtics. This is an early tip-off for the NBA and I think it's going to have both not playing up to their full potential. Washington has been the better of the two teams and should be able to dictate the tempo. The Wizards are only giving up 92.6 ppg over their last 5 games. The Celtics have been playing better defensively of late. They held Detroit to just 102 (88 in regulation) and the Lakers to just 96 in their last two games.

UNDER is 43-26 over the last 3 seasons when Washington takes on a up-tempo team who averages 83 or more shots. It's also 32-14 in the Celtics last 46 home games after two straight covers as a favorite.

We also see a strong system in play. The UNDER is 26-6 since 1996 with a total of 200 or more where you have a road team off 3 straight blowout wins by 15 or more points. That's a 81% system backing this one to go below the mark. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAB Member Only Play on Valparaiso -

This is a great spot to fade New Mexico. The Lobos are coming off a big game against in-state rival New Mexico State, which they won 62-47 as a 1.5-point home dog. This is not the same caliber a New Mexico team from last year. The Lobos lost Cameron Bairstow (20.4 ppg), Kendall Williams (16.0 ppg) and Alex Kirk (13.3 ppg), plus they are without this season's leading scorer Cullen Neal (17.0 ppg). I just don't see them responding well in this one. This will be the Lobos first true road game of the season and we have already seen them lose by double-digits in neutral site games against both USC and Texas A&M. Valparaiso's only loss is at Missouri back in their second game of the season. Since that loss they have won 7 straight with 6 of those wins coming by at least 13-points. Look for the Crusaders to have no problem winning here by double-digits. Take Valparaiso!

4* NBA Heavy Hitter Game of the Month on Pistons -

This may seem like a lot of points for the Pistons to be laying against any team considering Detroit has lost 10 straight. However, I believe this is a perfect spot for the Pistons to snap their skid and to do so in fashion. Detroit is going to come out highly motivated knowing that this is a game they can win and get some confidence going against the 76ers.

While Philadelphia recently won their first game of the season and have covered 4 straight, this is an awful spot for the 76ers, who will be playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 nights overall. Philadelphia is just 1-7 on the road this season, where they are getting outscored by a ridiculous 16.9 ppg. Even though the Pistons have just 2 more wins than the 76ers, they are the far more talented team in this matchup. It's also worth noting that Detroit has won 4 straight in the series at home with an average margin of victory of 15.5 ppg.

76ers are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 games when playing on 0 days rest, while the Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on 2 days rest. These trends combine to form a 69% (43-19) system in favor of the Pistons. Take Detroit!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Loyola-Chicago -

Loyola-Chicago should have no problem going on the road and taking care of business against a bad Illinois-Chicago team. Both of these teams have played on the road at Kent State. The Ramblers won 69-61, while the Flames got beat by 18-points (60-78). It's also worth noting that UIC just lost at home to Grand Canyon. The Flames only two wins this season have come against the likes of Western Illinois and St. Xavier, while the Ramblers only two losses have come against Michigan State and Tulane. I look for Loyola to take control of this game early and win here by double-digits. It's also worth noting that the Ramblers have won 2 straight and 3 of 4 in the series.

UIC is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games after a SU loss, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after playing their last game on the road and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games when listed as an underdog of 6 points or less. These trends combine to form a dynamite 96% (24-1) system in favor of the Ramblers. Take Loyola-Chicago!

3* NCAAB Member Only Play on Miami -

This is a complete mismatch and I look for the Hurricanes to add to their impressive 8-0 start with an easy win at home against Wisconsin-Green Bay. The Phoenix were just embarrassed at Georgia State by 24-points last time out and lost by 24 earlier this season at Wisconsin. Miami has shown that they are for real with impressive wins over ranked opponents in Florida and Illinois. They also knocked off a quality Charlotte team twice in 3 days and rolled over a decent Akron team by 28-points. Green Bay does have a big time talent in Keifer Sykes, but there's just not enough talent around him and I look for him to struggle against the athletic guards of Miami.

Road underdogs of 10 or more points that are a poor offensive team (63-67 ppg) against an excellent defensive team (63 or less ppg) who trailed in their previous game by 15 or more at the half are just 11-34 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 76% system in favor of the Hurricanes. Take Miami!

4* NCAAB No Brainer Game of the Month on Oklahoma State -

The books have completely missed the mark on this one. Oklahoma State may have lost star guard Marcus Smart, but the Cowboys are still have a lot more talent on the floor than that of South Carolina. Oklahoma State has opened up 7-0 with an impressive 73-58 victory over Tulsa in the MGM title game. Junior Phil Forte III (19.3 ppg) and senior Le'Bryan Nash (18.3) have carried the load offensively for the Cowboys early and are getting plenty of contributions from the rest of the team (7 other players average 4+ ppg).

I look for Oklahoma State to have no problem going on the road and knocking off a South Carolina squad that is just 4-3 on the season. Keep in mind that last year the Cowboys destroyed the Gamecocks 79-52 in Stillwater. It's not going to be near as big of a blowout this time around, but Oklahoma State should win here rather easily.

South Carolina is 9-22 ATS in their last 31 home games when listed as an underdog of 3 points or less, just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 versus the Big 12 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a 72% (31-12) system in favor of the Cowboys. Take Oklahoma State!

5* NBA Pre-New Years Western Conf Game of the Year on Timberwolves +

This is a perfect spot for the Timberwolves to bounce back from that ugly home loss to the 76ers and get a cover against the Rockets. It doesn't get much worse in the NBA right now than losing to Philadelphia, who had started the season 0-17. There's no question oddsmakers have inflated this line, especially with Houston beating the Grizzlies 105-96 in their last game. Not only do I think Minnesota will hang tough with the Rockets, I think they have a great shot at winning this game.

The Timberwolves are going to come out highly motivated after that poor showing against a quality team like the Rockets. Houston on the other hand figures to have a difficult time getting up for this game. The Rockets are not only coming off that big game against Memphis, but they have a big home game against the Suns on deck tomorrow. Adding to this is the fact that Houston is still playing short-handed, as Dwight Howard, Patrick Beverley and Terrence Jones are all sidelined with injuries.

The Timberwolves will also be playing with revenge here, as they lost to Houston 101-113 back on Nov. 12. Minnesota is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 revenging a home loss to an opponent.  Houston on the other hand is 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games after having won at least 4 of their last 6 games, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games.

Adding to all of this is a strong system suggesting a fade of the Rockets. Favorites off a home win against a division rival are just 20-50 ATS on Friday over the last 5 seasons. That's a 71% system in favor of the Timberwolves. Take Minnesota!

4* NBA No Brainer Game of the Month on Hornets -

This is a great spot to back the Hornets at home as a mere 4.5-point favorite against the Knicks. While Charlotte comes in having lost 10 straight, there's simply too much talent on this team for the Hornets to continue to play this poorly. New York looks to be the perfect opponent to get them out of their funk.

The Knicks are on a 6-game losing streak of their own and just 2-15 over their last 17 games overall. New York is also a mere 1-8 on the road this season, where they are getting outscored by 8.3 ppg. The biggest key here is that the Knicks are in horrible scheduling spot, as they will be playing the second game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days overall. Adding to this is the fact that New York is primed for a letdown after laying it all on the line at home last night against LeBron James and Cavaliers. Charlotte on the other hand is playing on a full day of rest and just their 2nd game in the last 6 days.

We also find a strong system in play on the Hornets. Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have been beaten by the spread by 48 or more combined points in their last 10 games against an opponent that has gone under the total by 48 or more combined points in their last 7 games are 61-28 ATS since 1996. That's a 69% system in favor of the Hornets. Take Charlotte!

3* NBA Blockbuster ATS Blowout on Thunder -

I believe we have a perfect spot here to lay a big number on the Thunder. Oklahoma City is finally healthy, as Kevin Durant made his season debut last time out against the Pelicans and Russell Westbrook has returned from a broken hand. The key here is that the Thunder lost in Durant's season debut and that is going to have this team highly motivated to get a win tonight.

Philadelphia was able to get their first win of the season after an 0-17 start, but it's not a sign of things to come. The 76ers are going to be the worst team in the league and they simply have no chance of keeping it close against the Thunder. One of the key matchups here is Westbrook against Philadelphia's Michael Carter-Williams. I look for Westbrook's speed and athleticism to really make life difficult on Carter-Williams and he's the one guy the 76ers need to play well to have any chance of keeping this withing single digits.

Adding to all of this is a nice system in play suggesting a fade of the 76ers. Home underdogs who have beaten the spread by 18 or more combined points in their last 3 games are just 28-58 ATS in non-conference games over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Thunder. Take Oklahoma City!

4* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Pacers +

I believe the Pacers are showing some great value here, due to the fact that they come in off back-to-back double-digit losses at Cleveland and Phoenix. Indiana is quietly starting to get healthy, as C.J. Miles, Roy Hibbert, David West and C.J. Watson have all returned to the lineup over the last 5 days.

Even with all the injuries this team has went a respectable 7-11 to start the year and have been able to remain competitive because of their effort defensively. Indiana is only giving up 96.4 ppg and with this being just their 2nd game in 5 days, I'm expecting max effort on that side of the ball.  Another key here is that this is the one matchup tonight that's not being aired as part of the TNT double-header, which I believe is going to take away some of the intensity from the Trail Blazers.

It's also worth noting that the Pacers have given Portland a lot of trouble over the last few seasons. Indiana has won 4 of the last 7 and only 1 of their 3 losses have come by more than 5 points. Indiana is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team that has won 60% or more of their home games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a ATS loss, and 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing a 100+ in their last game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system suggesting a fade of the Trail Blazers. Home teams who are horrible foul drawing teams (average 21 or fewer free throws/game) are just 89-153 ATS in the first half of the season over the last 5 years. That's a 63% system in favor of the Pacers. Take Indiana!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Iowa State -

The Cyclones have one of the best homecourt advantages in the country and have won 23-straight at Hilton Coliseum against non-conference opponents. This is going to be an electric atmosphere with Iowa State hosting a ranked opponent and I look for this team to respond with one of their best performances of the season.

While Arkansas has an impressive road win over SMU, the rest of their schedule has featured a bunch of cupcakes. I look for the Razorbacks to struggle on the road against what will be the best team they have seen so far in 2014. Keep in mind that Arkansas is historically not a good bet away from home.

The Razorbacks are just 25-55 ATS over their last 18 road games against an opponent with a winning home record. Arkansas is also a mere 7-20 ATS in their last 27 against the Big 12 and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games off a home win by 10 or more points (average loss by 12.2 ppg). Iowa State on the other hand is 43-21-3 ATS in their last 67 home games against a team with a winning road record, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs the SEC (already beat Alabama 84-74) and 8-2 in their last 10 overall against a team who has won more than than 60% of their games. All these trends add up to a massive 71% (142-59) system in favor of the Cyclones. Take Iowa State!

4* NCAAB Heavy Hitter Game of the Month on Long Beach State -

This may seem like a lot of points to be laying on a team out of the Big West, but Long Beach State should have no problem making easy work of Nevada. The Wolfpack are in a big rebuilding phase this season after losing their top 3 scorers, including the Mountain West's second-leading scorer in Deonte Burton (20.1 ppg). Nevada comes in having lost 4 straight, including a 24-point loss at Nebraska-Omaha last time out.

Long Beach State has 4 starters back from last year and a number of their top reserves. This 49ers team has played an absolutely brutal schedule to this point, having already faced the likes of BYU, Xavier, Kansas State, UCLA Washington and Xavier a second time. Long Beach is 4-4 with wins over Kansas State and Xavier, but what really stands out is how they have been competitive in most of their losses. They lost by just 5-points at BYU, 14 at UCLA and 10 on a neutral court against Washington.

I look for the 49ers to come out extremely motivated in their first home game since Nov. 21 and that should lead to a blowout win that has them easily covering this large spread. Long Beach State is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 versus a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games, while Nevada is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 off a road loss and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 off a road loss of 10 or more points. These trends combine to form a 83% (29-6) system in favor of the 49ers. Take Long Beach State!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Jazz +

This is a great situation to back the Jazz at home as an underdog. Utah comes in having lost 6 straight, but those losses have come against the likes of the Pelicans, Bulls, Thunder, Clippers and Nuggets. The Jazz are desperate for a win and I look for them to lay it all on the line tonight against the Raptors.

While Utah is highly motivated, Toronto finds themselves in a horrible spot. The Raptors knocked off the Kings 117-109 last night in a shootout in Sacramento and will have no rest as they turnaround and face Utah tonight. On top of this being the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, this will be the Raptors 3rd road games in the last 4 days. With Toronto missing one of their best players in DeMar DeRozan, I just don't see them playing up to their potential, especially with a huge home game on deck against the Cavaliers Friday.

Toronto is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a losing record and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 off a game where they covered the spread. Utah is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when playing on 1 day of rest. These trends combine to form a 76% (22-7) system in favor of the Jazz. Take Utah!

3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Spurs -

The Spurs don't seem to be suffering any sort of hangover after winning the title. After a shaky 2-3 start, San Antonio has gone 11-1 over their last 12 and are currently riding a 8 game winning streak.

The Spurs already knocked off Brooklyn by 12-points at home earlier this season and the Nets were fortunate that it wasn't a much bigger blowout. San Antonio shot 51.9% from the field, while Brooklyn connected on just 37.4%. The Nets are just 3-4 at home and I just don't see them being able to keep this one within single digits.

San Antonio has failed to cover in 3 of their last 4 games, which is important to note. The Spurs are a perfect 9-0 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons when they come in having failed to cover in 3 of their last 4. San Antonio is also 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games after playing each of their last 2 as a road favorite and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when they come in having won 8 or more consecutive games. These trends combine to form a 84% (36-7) system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Iowa +

I believe the Hawkeyes are showing some great value here as a 8-point underdog against the Tar Heels. Iowa's only two losses this season have come against Texas and Syracuse and keep in mind that they were just a 4-point dog to the Longhorns and a 2.5-point favorite versus Syracuse. This Iowa team didn't play anywhere close to their potential in either of those games.

There's no question that North Carolina is the more talented team, but Iowa's length inside and stingy defense should give the Tar Heels problems. North Carolina has not done a good job of protecting the basketball, committing 49 turnovers in their last 3 games. Iowa thrives on forcing mistakes and I believe those turnovers are going to keep Iowa in this game and it wouldn't come as a huge shock if they pulled off the upset. This is a much better Hawkeye team than they get credit for.

There's a nice system in play suggesting a fade of the Tar Heels. Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who allowed 25 or less in the 1st half of their last game against an opponent off 2 straight wins by 15 or more points are just 13-42 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 76% system in favor of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa!

5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month on Hornets +

This is a great spot to back Charlotte, as I look for the Hornets to snap their 9-game losing streak tonight against the Bulls. I expect Charlotte to give max effort here after an ugly 30-point loss at Atlanta last time out, which saw them trail by as many as 44-points. The Hornets have had a full 3-days off to let that loss sit in and the extra rest should pay off big against the Bulls.

Chicago comes into this game off a 129-132 double-overtime loss at home last night. Now the Bulls have to turn around and play the second game of a back-to-back set and 3rd in the last 4 days overall. What really makes this a tough situation for Chicago is they are far from healthy. Taj Gibson has missed the last 5 games and is not expected back, Joakim Noah was injured against Dallas and may not play, rookie Doug McDermott is questionable and I wouldn't be surprised if they kept Derrick Rose's minutes in check after he played a season-high 37 minutes last night.

The Bulls have lost each of their last 3 in the 2nd game of a back-to-back and are just 1-4 ATS in this spot over their last 5. Chicago is also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when the starting 5 players combined for more than 160 minutes the previous game. Charlotte is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team that's won 60% or more of their road games and 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 versus the Central division. These trends combine to form a dynamite 83% (30-6) system in favor of the Hornets. Take Chicago!

5* NCAAB Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year on William & Mary +

The Tribe are showing big time value here in this in-state rivalry showdown against Richmond. William & Mary enter on a 5-game winning streak with the only loss on the season come at Florida in the opener. The Spiders on the other hand are just 2-3 with their only two wins coming against High Point and Radford.

William & Mary lost 3 starters from last year, but got back First-Team All CAA guard Marcus Thornton and CAA Freshman of the Year Omar Prewitt. Thornton is averaging 17.0 ppg so far in 2014 and Prewitt isn't far behind at 12.2. Both of these guys can light it up from the outside and that's a big concern for Richmond, who is allowing opponents to connect on 39.1% from the 3-point line. The Spiders are down this year with the losses of seniors Cedrick Lindsay and Derrick Williams and simply should not be laying this many points. William & Mary isn't just good enough to cover, I could easily see them winning this game outright.

Richmond is a mere 3-12 ATS in their last 15 after scoring 60 points or less in their last contest and 7-18 ATS in their last 25 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. William & Marry is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 versus a team with a losing record and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games off a win by 6 points or less.

Adding to all of this is a great system. Underdogs with an average offense (67-74 ppg) against an opponent with a poor offense (63-67 ppg), after allowing 65 or less in 4 straight games are 48-20 ATS since 1997. That's a 71% system in favor of the Tribe. Take William & Mary!

5* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month on Trail Blazers -

The Trail Blazers are showing great value here as a mere 3-point road favorite against the Nuggets. Portland has already taken each of the first two games in the series this season. In a span of just 3 days they beat Denver 116-100 at home and 130-113 on the road. The Trail Blazers have now won 6 straight in the series.

Defensively the Nuggets had no answer for Portland in those first two games and it's hard to imagine they will be at their best on that side of the ball given that they will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, following yesterday's 103-101 win at Utah. Denver is just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games when playing with no rest. It's also worth noting that the Trail Blazers have won 4 straight on the road where they are 4-2 ATS this season.

Adding to all of this is a big time system telling us to fade the Nuggets. Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are revenging a loss versus an opponent and off a road win by 3 points or less are 23-5 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 82% system in favor of the Trail Blazers. Take Portland!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Indiana -

I believe we are seeing the Hoosiers undervalued at home in this one, due to their upset loss to Eastern Washington last week. Indiana bounced back with a 87-79 win over UNC Greensboro and I look for them to be all business when they take the floor against Pittsburgh. It's not like the Hoosiers haven't shown they can step up against better teams, as they knocked then No. 22 SMU at home 74-68 back on Nov. 20. Pitt has lost at Hawaii 70-74 and got beat badly in the Maui Invitational by San Diego State 57-74.

The other thing to keep in mind is that the Panthers are not at full strength. Leading returning scorer Cameron Wright is out with a foot injury, leaving Pitt with just two starters on the floor from last year. Without Wright it's going to be hard for the Panthers offensively, especially on the road in a hostile environment like Assembly Hall.

Indiana is 24-9 ATS in their last 33 home games with a line of +3 to -3, while Pittsburgh is just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 on the road and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 versus the Big 10. These trends combine to form a 77% (33-10) system in favor of the Hoosiers. Take Indiana!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Georgia -

Georgia comes into this game off back-to-back losses against No. 10 Gonzaga (76-88) and Minnesota (62-66) at the NIT Season Tip-Off. I think it has the Bulldogs laying a favorable number on the road against Chattanooga, who they annihilated last year at home by 31-points (87-56). The Mocs have already lost by 44-points at Wisconsin and 22 at Butler this season. They also come in off a 69-77 loss at Kennesaw St, who lost by 47 at Syracuase and 34 at Cal.

Not only do those two losses have Georgia undervalued, it's going to have them highly motivated when they take the floor tonight. All this adds up to the Bulldogs winning here by double-digits without any problem. Georgia is 24-11 ATS in their last 35 games after playing their last contest as an underdog and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a loss.

We also find a nice system in play, as road teams from a major 1-A conference against a team from a weak 1-A conference are 65-30 ATS since 1997. That's a 68% system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Georgia!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on 76ers +

The 76ers are showing some great value here as a 13.5-point home underdog against the Spurs tonight. San Antonio will be in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, as they played yesterday in Boston. Expect Popovich to be looking to manage minutes with another road game on deck Wednesday and I wouldn't be surprised if some of the regulars got the night off.

Philadelphia on the other hand is going to lay everything they have on the line in this one. Not only do they have some revenge on their mind after a 25-point loss at San Antonio earlier this season, the 76ers want to avoid the worst start in NBA history, which is 0-18 by the Nets in 2009-10. While I don't think even the Spurs resting their players and a max effort by Philadelphia will be enough to get them a win, I do it resulting in a much more competitive game than what this line would indicate.

Keep in mind that Philadelphia lost at Dallas earlier this season by 53-points on Nov. 13. They just played the Mavericks at home in the rematch and lost by a final of just 103-110. The 76ers have kept it within 13-points in 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. Adding to this is that Philadelphia is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against an opponent who has won more than 60% of their road games.

We also see a strong system in play. Home underdogs of 10 or more that who are revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100 or more points, who are off a cover they lost outright as an underdog are 32-8 ATS since 1996. That's a 80% system in favor of the 76ers. Take Philadelphia!

4* NBA Game of the Month on Suns -

This may seem like a lot of points to be laying on the Suns at home against a Magic team that hasn't been nearly as bad as what people anticipated, but Orlando has been awful against the West on the road. The Magic have dropped 19 straight road games against the Western Conference and are in a major slump right now. Orlando has dropped 4 straight with each of the last 3 coming by at least 15 points.

The big key here is that the Suns aren't aren't going to be overlooking this game after getting embarrassed by 25-points last time out against the Nuggets. Good teams tend to bounce back from a bad showing like that. Since 1996, teams who are averaging 103+ points/game are 156-84 (65%) ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.

Phoenix is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, 15-7 ATS in their last 22 home games against a team with a losing road record and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 versus the Eastern Conference. These trends combine to form a 72% (47-18) system in favor of the Suns. Take Phoenix!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on UNI -

UNI is showing some great value here laying less than double-digits at home against Richmond. The Panthers have opened up the season 6-0 with impressive wins of late against Virginia Tech (73-54) and Northwestern (61-42). The Spiders on the other hand are just 2-2, but it's not surprising to see this team struggle out of the gates with the departure of seniors Cedrick Lindsay and Derrick Williams. These two both were out at the end of last year and Richmond went just 2-6 down the stretch to finish 19-14. The big key here is that there's simply not a enough respect given to these Missouri Valley teams' homecourt edge. Not to mention UNI is loaded this year with all 5 starters back, plus the addition of Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four redshirt freshmen.

Richmond is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games. Northern Iowa is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games versus a team with a losing road record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the A-10. These trends combine to form a 90% (27-3) system in favor of the Panthers. Take UNI!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on 76ers +

I expect to see the 76ers come out and play as hard as they have all season tonight against the Mavericks, who handed them a 53-point loss in Dallas back on Nov. 13. While this game means a lot to Philadelphia, the Mavericks figure to have a hard time getting motivated for this one, especially considering the spot. Dallas just played a big time road game at Toronto last night, which has them in the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set. The Mavs are also playing their 3rd game in 4 days and 6th since last Friday. The 76ers on the other hand are fresh off 2 days rest.

Philadelphia hasn't won a game this season, but they have been a lot more competitive here over their last 3 games. They lost by just 8 at New York, 10 to the Trail Blazers at home and just 8 at home to the Nets.

Adding to all of this is a solid system. Underdogs of 10 or more points who have lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against an opponent that has won or more of their last 10 games are 203-128 ATS since 1996. That's a 61% long-term system in favor of the 76ers! Take Philadelphia!

5* NCAAB Heavy Hitter Game of the Month on West Virginia -

The No. 21 Mountaineers should have no problem covering this double-digit spread against Charleston. Even though we aren't far into the season, each of these teams have played both George Mason and Connecticut. The Mountaineers beat George Mason 91-65, while the Cougars barely escaped with a 61-60 victory. West Virginia knocked off UConn 78-68, while Charleston lost to the Huskies 57-65. That right there really says a lot about how much more talented the Mountaineers are and adding even more value here is that this game is at home for West Virginia.

Charleston is 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record, while West Virginia is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 off a blowout win by 30 or more points and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 after a game committing 15 less turnovers than their opponent. These trends combine to form a 78% (39-11) system in favor of the Mountaineers. Take West Virginia!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Creighton -

The Bluejays weren't expected to be this good this early after losing 4 starters from last year, including the National Player of the Year in Doug McDermott. Creighton has had 5 different players lead the team in scoring in their 5-0 start and the scary thing is they have not shot the ball anywhere close to what they are capable of, especially from the outside.

Ole Miss also lost a big time player from last year in guard Marshall Henderson (19.0 ppg). Unlike the Bluejays, the Rebels really look like they are missing their star from a year ago. Ole Miss got up set in their home opener against Charleston Southern. While they have since won 3 straight, they edged out Troy by just 10 and barely escaped with a 6-point home win over Northern Arizona, who lost by 33 to Xavier.

Creighton is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 non-conference games, 8-1 in their last 9 off 2 straight home wins by 10 or more points, 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after leading in their previous game by 15+ points at the half and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 60 points or less in each of their last games. These trends combine to form a 80% (47-12) system in favor of the Bluejays. Take Creighton!

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Hawks -

Atlanta is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Pelicans. The Hawks are 5-2 at home this season, while New Orleans is just 3-4 on the road. What I like here is Atlanta is going to be extremely motivated off a tough loss at home to the Raptors last time out and have responded well in this spot. The Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a double-digit loss at home.

It's also worth noting that this is expected to be a very high-scoring game with a total currently sitting around 206 points. These are not games that the Pelicans have fared well in. New Orleans is just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 road games with a total set at 200 or more points and have ost these contests by an average of 10.1 ppg.

There's also a great system in play suggesting a fade of the Pelicans. Underdogs off a double-digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more points, who are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) against a team with a winning record are 6-25 ATS since 1996. That's a 81% system in favor of the Hawks. Take Atlanta!

4* NCAAB No Brainer Game of the Month on Arizona -

Arizona is showing great value here against undefeated San Diego State. The Aztecs are getting all kinds of respect after back-to-back impressive wins over BYU (92-87) and Pittsburgh (74-57), which has this line a lot lower than it should be. Arizona is the far superior team and will have the best players on the floor in sophomore forward Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and freshman Stanley Johnson. It's also worth noting that these two teams played twice last year including a matchup in the Sweet 16. Arizona won both of those contests by more than 5 points. Adding to this is they no longer have the services of Xavier Thames who scored 44 points in the two games against the Wildcats.

Another big key here is that while both of these teams are extremely talented on the defensive end of the floor, Arizona has the better offense and that should allow them to create the separation needed to cover this spread. The Wildcats come in shooting 50% from the field against teams who are only allowing opponents to make 43.7% of their attempts, while San Diego State is hitting on just 42.7% vs teams allowing 40.4% shooting. Take Arizona!

3* Florida/Georgetown NCAAB Main Event on Georgetown -

This is a great spot to go against Florida, who are dealing with some serious injury problems right now. The Gators are expected to have just 6 scholarship players available against Georgetown. The injuries have clearly hampered them. In their last two games they have lost outright at home to Miami as a 8-point favorite and needed overtime to escape with a 61-56 overtime win at home against ULM as a 20.5-point favorite. The fact that the Gators are still ranked No. 18 and will be going up against an unranked opponent, has them overvalued again. While Georgetown is favored, I believe they should be an even bigger favorite. The Hoyas are a well-coached team under John Thompson III and are expected to be more like the team that started 11-4 and not the one that ended last year 7-11.

There's a strong system backing a play on Georgetown here. Favorites off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 or more points with 2 or more starters returning than their opponent are 40-12 ATS in the first 10 games of the season over the last 5 years. That's a 77% system in favor of the Hoyas. Take Georgetown!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Thunder -

The books have missed the mark in this one. Oklahoma City may come into this game having lost 6 straight, but I'm expecting a max effort tonight in a big revenge spot against the Jazz. The Thunder lost 81-98 on the road to the Jazz back on Nov. 18 and that a long with their losing streak has them undervalued at home.

One of the big reasons that I like Oklahoma City in this spot, is that this week the team has seen both Durant and Westbrook return to practice. Both could be on the floor as soon as Friday's home game against the Knicks. Just seeing these two back healthy is going to serve as a big emotional lift, it also means that a lot of these guys who have been filling know their roles are about to be diminished, which should have them playing as hard as they have all season to show they deserve to keep getting playing time going forward.

Not only do the Thunder figure to be the more motivated team, they should have a big advantage defensively in this one. Oklahoma City is allowing just 89.3 ppg and holding opponents to just 40.7% shooting at home, while the Jazz are giving up 104.0 ppg and allowing opponents to shoot 48.3% on the road.

The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series and the Jazz are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 trips to OKC. Thunder are also 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 versus a team with a winning % below 40% and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 7 against the Western Conference. These trends combine to form a dynamite 89% (25-3) system in favor of the Thunder! Take Oklahoma City!

5* NCAAB Vegas Insider Game of the Year on Georgia State -

Georgia State is one of the better kept secrets in college basketball. Last year the Panthers went 25-9 on their way to a Sun Belt regular season title. Georgia State gets back the nucleus from last year and are absolutely loaded in the backcourt with R.J. Hunter (2013 Sun Belt Player of the Year), senior point guard Ryan Harrow (1st Team All Sun Belt) and Kevin Ware (Louisville transfer). The Panthers should have their way against an Oakland team that has started out just 1-4 with their only win coming against Chicago State.

Georgia State is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs a team with a losing record and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 following a SU win. Oakland is just 5-20-2 ATS in their last 27 home games against a team with a losing road record and 3-13 in their last 16 versus a team with a winning record and 0-9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games overall.

There's also a strong system in play. Road favorites who are off a cover as a double-digit favorite are 74-39 ATS in the month of November since 1997. That's a 66% system in favor of the Panthers. Take Georgia State!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Miami (OH) +

The RedHawks are showing some great value here as a 8.5-point underdog. Both of these teams look to slow the game down and win with their defense, which makes a 8.5-point spread a lot for the likes of Northwestern to cover.

The Wildcats lost their star guard in Drew Crawford, who averaged 15.7 of their 59.5 points per game. Without Crawford to rely on offensively, Northwestern just doesn't have the fire-power to blow teams out. That's evident by their less than impressive wins to start the year against Houston Baptist, Brown, North Florida and Elon. While they won all 4, their largest win came by 7-points. Miami (OH) isn't a great team but they are the best the Wildcats have faced so far.

Northwestern is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games of a win by 6-points or less and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 off 2 or more consecutive victories. Wildcats are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on a neutral site. These trends combine to form a 86% (24-4) system in favor of the RedHawks. Take Miami (OH)!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Iowa State -

I cashed in on the Cyclones -6 last night against Alabama and I look for Iowa State to cruise to another double-digit win over Maryland. The game will once again be played at Sprint Center in Kansas City, which is the site of the Big 12 Tournament and considered by many Cyclone fans to be Hilton South. Not only does Iowa State have a minor homecourt edge, but they are the better team. Fred Hoiberg has the Cyclones loaded with talent and are poised to contend for a Big 12 title this season. Maryland is no longer a basketball powerhouse and this past offseason 5 players transferred to play elsewhere. The Terrapins have lost 24 of their last 29 games against ranked opponents and haven't beat a ranked opponent on a neutral court since 2008.

Iowa State is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played on a neutral site and 8-1 in their last 9 against a team with a winning record. These trends combine to form a 79% (27-7) system in favor of the Cyclones. Take Iowa State!

5* Non-Conference No Limit Game of the Year on Penn State -

The Nittany Lions are being undervalued by the books after failing to cover the spread in 3 straight, which included a couple of less than impressive wins over Cornell (72-71) and USC (63-61). With Akron missing their top returning scorer and rebounder in Demetrius Treadwell (15.2 ppg, 8.6 rpg), the Zips are not equipped to go on the road and keep it close enough to cover against Penn State. The Nittany Lions got back a ton of talent from last year's team, including one of the top Big Ten players in D.J. Newbill. He will easily be the best player on the floor tonight and that's a big reason why I'm siding with Penn State at home.

Akron is just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games against a team with a winning record, while Penn State is 24-11 ATS in their last 35 versus poor rebounding teams who are getting outrebounded by 4+ boards/game. Zips are also just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games. These trends combine to form a 73% (51-19) system in favor of the Nittany Lions. Take Penn State!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Seton Hall -

The Pirates are showing great value here as a mere 3-point favorite against Illinois State. While the Red Birds have won rather easily in their first two games of the Paradise Jam with victories over the likes of Weber State (73-64) and Old Dominion (64-45), but neither of those are real impressive wins. What stands out to me is that this team lost at home to Utah State in their opener. Utah State isn't anywhere close to a tournament team, as they lost all 5 starters and a couple key contributors off the bench. Seton Hall is a program on the rise aren't quite there yet and as a result are showing value against inferior competition.

Seton Hall is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams who are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game and 8-0 in their last 8 road games when listed as the favorite. Adding to this is that Illinois State is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after scoring the spread in 2 out of their last 3. These trends combine to form a dynamite 96% (24-1) system in favor of the Pirates. Take Seton Hall!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Iowa State -

While both of these teams come in undefeated, Iowa State is the much more talented team in my open. The Cyclones are talented enough to contend with Kansas and Texas for the Big 12 title, while Alabama will be a middle of the pack team in the weak SEC. One of the hidden keys here is that while this game is being played on a neutral court at the Sprint Center in Missouri, this is a short trip for Iowa State fans and I'm expecting them to heavily out-number the Razorbacks faithful. Alabama simply doesn't have the offensive playmakers to keep up with the Cyclones. While they get back 4 starters, they lose All-SEC guard Trevor Releford (18.5 ppg). Iowa State on the other hand has a great nucleus of talent coming back and are one of the deepest teams in the country.

Iowa State has had plenty of time to rest up for this one and are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games when playing just their 2nd game in 8 days. Cyclones are also 12-5 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games versus a team with a winning % above .600. Alabama is 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 off a SU win and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 versus the Big 12 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on a neutral site. These trends combine to form a 76% (55-17) system in favor of the Cyclones. Take Iowa State!

4* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Suns +

The Suns are showing excellent value here as a 5-point road dog against the Raptors. Phoenix comes in having won 4 straight on the road and have dominated when visiting arenas from the East. The Suns have won 12 of their last 13 non-conference road games, including a perfect 4-0 mark this season. Adding to this is that have have had a lot of success at the Raptors Air Canada Centre, as they are 8-1 in their last 9 visits to Toronto.

Adding even more value here is the fact that the Suns are catching the Raptors in a great spot. Toronto is coming off a huge 110-93 road win against LeBron James and the Cavs on Saturday, which saw them rally from an early 18-point deficit. I look for them to struggle to bring that same intensity to the floor against the Suns. I really like Phoenix to win this game outright, which makes it that much more sweet that we are getting 5-points.

There's also a great system in play. Underdogs who have won 60%-75% of their games are 53-36 ATS in the month of November over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Suns. Take Phoenix!

5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Michigan State -

The Spartans rebounded from that poor showing against Duke with a 87-52 win over Loyola-Illinois and I look for them to carry over that momentum with another easy home win against Santa Clara. Michigan State has a young team, which is why it wasn't surprising to see them struggle at Navy and against the Blue Devils in Indianapolis. The Broncos went just 14-19 last year and are simply not a well coached team. They are completely outmatched from a talent aspect and will have a difficult time just keeping it within 25 points. Keep in mind Santa Clara just lost 54-60 at Utah State, who lost all 5 starters from 2013-14.

Michigan State is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against bad pressure teams who force 12 or less turnovers/game and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after leading in their previous game by 15 or more at the half. Adding to this is that the Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons. These trends combine to form a 88% (23-3) system in favor of the Spartans. Take Michigan State!

3* NBA Late Night Bailout on Nuggets -

The Nuggets are showing some great value here as a slim 2-point road favorite against the Lakers. Even though Byron Scott is preaching defense, LA is not listening. The Lakers come in allowing 112.5 ppg and just allowed 140 in their last contest against the Mavericks. Denver comes in playing their best basketball of the early season. The Nuggets have won 3 straight and during this stretch are averaging 110.0 ppg. LA has had a horrible time slowing down Denver's offensive attack. The Nuggets have won six straight in the series and are averaging an impressive 123.2 ppg during this streak. Denver simply has too much offense for LA to keep it close.

Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who have gone over the total by 48 or more combined points in their last 10 games who are winning just 40% to 49% of their games are 31-9 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 78% system in favor of the Nuggets. Take Denver!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Georgia -

The Bulldogs missed out on the NCAA Tournament last year because of a poor showing early in non-conference play. Georgia knows they have to take care of business in these games and I expect them to do just that against Florida Atlantic. The Owls plummeted to 10-22 last year and while they get back 4 starters, they lose their senior captain in Pablo Bertone, who led C-USA in scoring at 19.0 ppg. FAU has already lost on the road to Elon 58-64 and Harvard 49-71.

Favorites of 10 or more points off a home blowout win by 20+ who have won 60% to 80% of their games against an opponent that has won 20% to 40% are 66-32 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Georgia!

3* NBA Blockbuster ATS Blowout on Knicks -

The only real hope for the 76ers keeping a game competitive right now is if the opposing team overlooks them. I don't see that being the case here with the Knicks. New York has dropped 9 of their last 10 after a 2-1 start to the season that included a win over the Cavaliers. As bad as the Knicks have been playing, they are still way better than what Philadelphia is putting out on the floor.

There's also a solid system in play on the Knicks. Favorites who are allowing 98-102 ppg against a horrible defensive team that is allowing 102+ ppg after a contest where they allowed 60 or more in the first half are 32-8 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 80% system in favor of the Knicks. Take New York!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Colorado -

The Buffaloes are one of the teams that I think could surprise and win the Pac-12 title over Arizona. The only player Colorado lost from last year's 23-12 team was Spencer Dinwiddie, who missed a lot of last year with an injury. The Buffaloes' have been more than impressive in their first two games, beating Drexel 65-48 as a 14-point favorite and Auburn 90-59 as a 11.5-point favorite. Now we find them laying just 1.5-points on the road against Wyoming, who hasn't looked great in home wins over Northern Colorado (78-70) and Western State (61-46). The Buffaloes simply aren't getting the respect they deserve, as this should be a team that's ranked in the Top 25.

There's a nice system in play on Colorado. Road favorites off a cover as a double-digit favorite in the month of November are 74-38 ATS since 1997. That's a 66% system in favor of the Buffaloes. Take Colorado!

3* NCAAB Underdog Shocker on Davidson +

The books are giving North Carolina a little too much respect off a couple of easy home games against NC Central and Robert Morris. Davidson gave the Tar Heels all they could handle last year in Chapel Hill before eventually losing 85-97 in overtime. This time the game will be played on a neutral court at Charlotte's Time Warner Cable Arena. I look for the Wildcats to give North Carolina another big scare and wouldn't be shocked if they pulled off the big upset against their in-state rival.

Davidson is 81-57 ATS in their last 138 games when playing against a team with a winning record, while North Carolina is 24-42 ATS in their last 66 off 2 or more consecutive home wins and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 after a combined score of 155 or more points in their last game. These trends combine to form a solid 61% (132-83) system in favor of the Wildcats. Take Davidson!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Rout on Wake Forest -

The Demon Deacons were destroyed in their last game, losing by 30-points at Arkansas on Wednesday. I believe that has created some exceptional value on the Demon Deacons in their home matchup against Iona. Prior to that loss Wake Forest had a couple of impressive wins over UNC-Asheville (80-69) and Tulane (71-49). Iona on the other hand was just lost at Wofford by 13-points in their last contest. Wake Forest has won 15 of their last 19 home games, which is a big reason why I'm not reading too much into that ugly road loss to Arkansas. I have a lot of confidence in 2nd-year head coach Danny Manning and his ability to get this program back on track. Either way, the Demon Deacons are greatly undervalued in this one and should win here comfortably.

Wake Forest is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU loss by more than 20 points, while the Gaels are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. These two trends combine to form a 76% (26-8) system in favor of the Demon Deacons. Take Wake Forest!

5* NBA Vegas Insider Game of the Year on Bucks +

Milwaukee is showing tremendous value as a 9-point dog against the Raptors this season. Despite the fact that the Bucks are 9-3 ATS this season, they are still being undervalued based on how bad they have been in years past. Milwaukee hasn't just been covering of late, they have been winning games outright. The Bucks have won 5 of their last 6, three of which had them listed as the underdog. They have just two losses all season by more than 9-points.

Not only am I big on Milwaukee right now, but this is a perfect scenario to fade the Raptors. Toronto is certainly feeling good about themselves after their 9-2 start to the season, which is going to make it easy for them to look past this contest to tomorrow's huge showdown against the Cavaliers, who everyone has circled on their calendar early. This is a similar spot to when the Raptors hosted the Magic prior to a big game against the Bulls on TNT. Toronto was fortunate to leave with a 104-100 win against Orlando, as they trailed by double-digits in the 4th quarter.

The Raptors are just 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a losing road record and we find a great system in play on the Bucks. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are a good defensive team (holding opponents to 41.5%-43.5% shooting) against a poor defensive team (45.5%-47.5%) are 39-12 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 77% system in favor of the Bucks. Take Milwaukee!

5* NCAAB No Brainer Game of the Month on Iowa -

The Hawkeyes are favored for good reason against the Orange. While both teams are coming off double-digit losses in the first round of the 2K Classic, I was a lot more impressed with the Hawkeyes. Iowa had a lead early against Texas but had one of their worst offensive showings they will likely have all season. The Hawkeyes made just 29.6%. Syracuse was dominated right from the start by Cal and this is simply not the same caliber an Orange team as previous years. They lost C.J. Fair, Tyler Ennis and Jerami Grant from last year's team and are counting on freshman Kaleb Joseph to run the all-important point guard spot in Syracuse's system. Joseph should eventually evolve into a big time player, but the Orange figure to struggle early against experienced teams like the Hawkeyes.

Teams who had a winning record the previous season who went 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games, playing in a game with two teams who have a winning record are 23-5 ATS on a neutral site in the first 5 games of the season over the last 5 years. That's a 82% system in favor of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster ATS Blowout on Seton Hall -

Seton Hall should have no problem covering this single-digit spread against the Wolf Pack. While the Pirates lost 3 starters from last year, I believe this year's team is better than the one that finished 17-17. They get back an experienced point guard in junior Sterling Gibbs and are expecting big things out of McDonald's All-American shooting guard Isaiah Whitehead. The big key here is that Nevada is in a major rebuilding phase and simply don't have the offensive fire-power to compete with a team like Seton Hall. The Wolf Pack lost their star in Deonte Burton (20.1 ppg), along with their next two top scorers in Cole Huff (12.4 ppg) and Jerry Evans Jr. (12.3 ppg). Combined that's 44.8 points they have to replace, which is over half of the 72.4 ppg they averaged in 2013-14.

Seton Hall is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games after playing their last game at home and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after playing their last game as a favorite. These trends combine to form a 83% (20-4) system in favor of the Pirates. Take Seton Hall!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Gardner-Webb +

Clemson shouldn't be laying this big of a number against a quality opponent like Gardner-Webb. While the Tigers have 4 starters back from last year, they lost their star in K.J. McDaniels, who averaged 17.1 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, while also earned ACC Defensive Player of the year. Clemson simply doesn't have anyone to replace his productivity and that was evident in their last game, which they lost 74-77 to Winthrop (wasn't even a line available on that game). Garner-Webb showed they can hang with the big boys in a competitive loss at LSU in their opener and bounced back with a 80-67 win over a College of Charleston, who just gave UConn a run last night. I look for this one to go right down to the wire and wouldn't be shocked if the Bulldogs won this one outright.

Gardner-Webb is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after covering last time out, 11-2 ATS in their last 13 off a SU win and 8-1 in their last 9 non-conference games. These trends combine to form a 82% (32-7) system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Garner-Webb!

4* Syracuse/Cal ESPN2 Heavy Hitter on Syracuse -

Syracuse is showing great value here as a mere 5-point favorite against the Golden Bears. The Orange have been nearly unbeatable when it comes to non-conference regular season games. In fact, they are 67-1 since the 2009-10 campaign. These two teams played last year in Maui and Syracuse won 92-81. I'm expecting a similar margin of victory, though I don't expect it to be quite as high-scoring. The Orange once again look to have an elite defense under jim Boeheim and I think a big reason they are showing such great value is people assume this high-flying Cal offense is going to give them trouble. Despite it being early in the season, both teams have played Kennesaw St. The Orange won 89-42 (+57), while Cal beat them 93-59 (+34). I'll take the better defense and the more talented team to win here by at least 6 points. Take Syracuse!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Maryland -

Maryland should have no problem blowing out Fordham and bringing home an easy cover. The Rams went just 10-21 last year and lost one of their best players in guard Brandon Frazier, who averaged 18.2 ppg. Fordham just lost to Penn State 54-73, which is a great sign that they are not ready to compete with the likes of the Terrapins. Maryland is a team on the rise under Mark Turgeon, who just landed one of the nations top recruiting classes (4 top 10 freshman) along with Georgia Tech transfer Robert Carter. The Terps have been more than impressive in their first two games, beating Wagner 82-48 and Central Connecticut 93-57. Take Maryland!

3* NCAAB Main Event on Texas -

You might think Iowa has the size and depth to match the length and athleticism of Texas, but their big guys don't have the muscle to keep the Longhorns from imposing their will inside. Texas has everyone back from last year, plus they added one of the top recruits in the country in Myles Turner. Iowa may keep this close early, but look for the Longhorns to take over in the 2nd half and win here comfortably. Take Texas!

3* NCAAB No Doubt Rout on Michigan -

Most are expecting Michigan to take a big step back after losing the likes of Nick Stauskas, Glenn Robinson III, Mitch McGary, Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford from last year's team, but head coach Jon Beilein has done a tremendous job of recruiting. There's more than enough talent here for Michigan to beat Detroit by at least 20 points tonight. The Titans are a solid team and should end up contending for the Horizon title, but are simply outmatched in this one. Take Michigan!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Penn State -

The books have made a mistake by listing the Nittany Lions as such a small favorite against Charlotte. While Penn State lost one of their top players from last year in Tim Frazier, they bring back one of the elite Big Ten players in D.J. Newbill, who averaged 17.8 ppg last year. This is now the 3rd year under head coach Patrick Chambers and I look for the Penn State to be a more competitive team than they were a year ago. Charlotte gets back 4 starters, but lot a key part of their team in point guard Denzel Ingram, who transferred. Look for Newbill and the Nittany Lions to gain control early and win here by at least 4-points easily. Take Penn State! 

3* NCAAB Early Bird Main Event on Charleston +

This is more of a play against Connecticut, as the Huskies are going to be overvalued early after winning it all last year. The big key here is that UConn lost a lot of talent from that squad, most notably Shabazz Napier. They also lost forward DeAndre Daniels (13.1 ppg, 6.0 rpg), 3-pt specialist Niels Giffey (54% 3pt FG pct) and Lasan Kromah (6.1 ppg). While they get back Ryan Boatright and Amida Brimah, they simply aren't going to be as dominant as they were last season. While the Cougars went just 14-18 last year, big improvements are expected in the 3rd season under head coach Doug Wojcik and I just don't see the Huskies giving them the type of respect needed to win here by more than 14 points. Take Charleston!

3* NBA No Doubt Rout on Nuggets -

The Nuggets come into this game riding a wave of momentum. Denver followed up a 6-game losing streak by winning 2 of 3 on the road, including Monday's impressive 106-97 victory at Cleveland. I look for them to carry over that strong play in a revenge spot against the Thunder. The Nuggets lost 92-102 at Oklahoma City back on Nov. 1. However, this time the Thunder will be missing both Perry Jones and Andre Roberson, who combined for 28 points in that earlier matchup.

This is also a difficult spot for Oklahoma City. The Thunder have been playing short-handed all season due to injuries and find themselves in the second game of a back-to-back road set, following last night's 81-98 loss at Utah. Both Denver and Utah are difficult places for opposing teams to play because of the thin air. I look for Oklahoma City to run out of gas early in this one, which should allow the Nuggets to win here by double-digits rather easily.

Oklahoma City is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games and a mere 1-3 ATS this season when listed as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Denver!

4* NCAAB Vegas Insider on Arkansas -

I look for Arkansas to have no problem making easy work of the Demon Deacons. The Razorbacks come into the 2014-15 campaign highly motivated off after feeling like they got snubbed out of a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Arkansas has 3 starters back and with some big time recruits added in the offseason, look to be even better in than last year. Wake Forest is headed in the right direction under new head coach Danny Manning, but are not built to win this season. The Demon Deacons lost their 4 best players from last year's 17-16 squad. Take Arkansas!

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Arizona -

While the Wildcats lost two of their top players from last year in Aaron Gordon and Nick Johnson, head coach Sean Miller has restocked the cupboard with another great recruiting class and most agree that this year's team is the best he's had in what will be his 6th year at Arizona. The Wildcats have cruised in each of their first two games with a 23-point win over Mt. St. Mary's and 20-point victory against CS Northridge. I'm expecting more of the same against UC Irvine. The Anteaters are a quality team but are simply no where close in terms of talent to the Wildcats. Take Arizona!

5* NCAAB Non-Conference Game of the Year on Wisconsin -

The Badgers should have no problem taking down one of their in-state foes in Wisconsin-Green Bay. While the Phoenix put a scare into Wisconsin last year on their home floor, losing by a final of just 66-69, that's a positive going into this matchup. The Badgers aren't going to look past Green Bay, especially on their home floor. Wisconsin-Green Bay still has talented guard Keifer Sykes, who put in 32 last year against the Badgers, but the Phoenix don't have much of a supporting cast around him. Look for Bo Ryan and his staff to have a much better gameplan for Sykes this time around, which should have them winning here by 20+ points rather easily. It's also worth noting Wisconsin is 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 non-conference games, which includes a 13-4 record of the last two seasons.

There's a strong system in play as well. Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points, in a matchup of a major division 1 conference team against a mid-major conference team are 137-75 ATS off a home win scoring 85 or more points since 1997. That's a 65% long-term system in favor of the Badgers. Take Wisconsin!

3* Creighton/Oklahoma NCAAB Main Event on Oklahoma -

The Blue Jays are getting way too much respect at home against the Sooners, largely due to the fact that Creighton has won 47 straight home games prior to Nov. 26. The big key here is that the Blue Jays are in a major rebuilding phase in 2014. Creighton lost 4 starters from last year, including the National Player of the Year in Doug McDermott. Oklahoma on the other hand has 4 starters back from last year's team that went 23-10 (12-6 Big 12) and have added in big talent in Houston transfer TaShawn Thomas, who averaged 16.2 points and 8.9 rebounds over 66 games the last two years with the Cougars. Simply put the Sooners are the far superior team and should have no problem winning here by at least 6 points. Take Oklahoma!

4* NBA No Limit Game of the Month on Clippers -

This is a great spot to back the Clippers as a small road favorite against the Magic. Los Angeles is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. The Clippers also come into this game of a poor showing at home in a 89-105 loss to the Bulls. LA is a perfect 3-0 off a loss this season and haven't lost back-to-back games in the regular season since last February. Adding to this is the fact that the Clippers are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games off a loss.

A big reason why the Clippers aren't a bigger favorite here is the Magic have gained the attention of the public. Orlando is a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games. I'm confident that streak will come to an end tonight. Los Angeles is the far superior team and the key here is that they won't be overlooking the Magic. Orlando has also had their troubles against the West. They are just 7-16 ATS in their last 23 versus the Western Conference and just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 against the Pacific Division.

There's also a strong system in play telling us to face the Magic. Home underdogs who have beat the spread by 18 or more combined points in their last 3 games are just 28-57 ATS in non-conference games over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!

3* Spurs/Cavaliers NBA Main Event on Cavaliers -

The Spurs may have had their way with LeBron James and the Miami Heat in last year's Finals, but James has a better supporting cast in Cleveland and I look for him to treat this game a little different than the rest. I'm also expecting the rest of the Cavaliers players to rally behind James and come out and lay it all on the line, as they look to send a message to the defending champs. San Antonio isn't going to back down, but this game isn't nearly as important to them as it is the Cavaliers.

Cleveland had a minor hiccup last time out in a 97-106 home loss to the Nuggets on Monday. I believe a lot of that to do with them looking ahead to this contest. Prior to that loss, the Cavaliers had won 4 straight where they averaged an impressive 119.3 ppg. The Spurs have scored 100 or more in just 3 games all season and I look for them to struggle to keep pace with the Cavaliers on the road.

Cleveland is 2-1 ATS following a SU loss and 3-1 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread. Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record and 0-2 ATS this season off a home win. These trends combine to form a 79% (11-3) system in favor of the Cavaliers. Take Cleveland!

3* NCAAB Oddsmakers Error on Evansville -

The Purple Aces are showing great value here as a mere 5-point favorite against Miami (OH). Evansville went just 14-19 last year, but were in the process of a major rebuilding phase, as they had the 4th youngest team in the nation. This year they get all 5 starters back, almost all their top reserves and added in Villanova transfer Mislav Brzoja. The Red Hawks finished with a similar record of 13-18, but lost All-MAC forward Will Felder and 4-year point guard Quinten Rollins. Adding to all of this is the fact that the Purple Aces beat Miami (OH) 78-65 last year at home. They should have no problem winning by at least 6 on the road. Take Evansville!

4* NCAAB Heavy Hitter Game of the Month on BYU -

The Cougars should have no problem knocking off Arkansas-Little Rock by at least 17 points. BYU has one of the best back-court duo's in the nation in junior Kyle Collinsworth and senior Tyler Haws (2013-14 WCC Player of the Year). The Cougars are also an experienced unit as a whole with 5 seniors returning from a team that made the NCAA Tournament and are excited about the addition of Wake Forest transfer Chase Fischer, who is a 3-point specialists (17 points, 4-8 3-pts in season opener). Arkansas-Little Rock went just 15-17 last year. While they get back 10 of the 12 players who averaged at least 10 minutes/game, they lose their best player in Will Neighbour, who average 16.3 ppg and 7.0 rpg. The Trojans were less than impressive in a 77-64 win over Arkansas Monticello in their opener and will simply not be able to keep pace with the Cougars in this one. Take BYU!

3* Knicks/Bucks NBA Total Annihilator on UNDER

The books have set the total too high for this one. Both the Bucks and Knicks have really struggled to get anything going offensively so far in 2014. Milwaukee comes in ranked 28th in scoring at 91.8 ppg and the Knicks aren't far behind at 25th with just 93.9 ppg.

The Knicks just haven't figured out the triangle offense and as a result they are playing slower than any team in the league. New York is dead last in pace at 91.8. New York's slow tempo and inability to get easy baskets is going to make it extremely hard for them to put up a big number against a Bucks team that is playing hard defensively. Milwaukee is 4th in the league right now, allowing just 92.6 ppg and have been even better than that at home, where they are only giving up 86.5 ppg.

It's also worth noting that the Bucks have not played well offensively at home. They comes in averaging just 89.2 ppg and are shooting just 41.0% from the field at home. I look for the Knicks to give this team a lot of trouble. New York's biggest weakness defensively has been guarding the 3-point shot. They are allowing opponents to hit 42% from long-distance this season. Milwaukee is not a team built to beat you from the outside. The Bucks are dead last in the NBA hitting just 29.6% of their 3-point shots. On the flip side of this, Milwaukee is very good at defending the 3-pointer. They are allowing opponents to hit just 26% from the outside at home.

UNDER is 14-4 in Milwaukee's last 18 games against teams who are shooting 39% or better from 3-point range and a perfect 7-0 this season versus teams who are making 6 or more 3-pointers per game. UNDER is also a perfect 7-0 in the Bucks last 7 after playing their previous game as an underdog. These trends combine to form a dynamite 88% (28-4) system. Take the UNDER!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on CS Sacramento +

Sacramento State is showing some solid value here after a blowout loss at Gonzaga (58-104) in their opener, while UC Riverside opened with a 75-52 blowout win at home over Cal San Diego. Just looking at those outcomes might lead you to believe the Highlanders are the play at home laying just 2.5-poings, but the Hornets are the more talented team. Look for Sacramento State senior guards Dylan Garrity and Mikh McKinney to be the two best players on the floor tonight.

The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after a game where they failed to cover the spread. UC Riverside on the other hand is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 after a SU win by more than 20 points. These trends combine to form a dynamite 86% (18-3) system in favor of the Hornets. Take Sacramento State!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on Hornets +

The Mavericks are coming into this contest overvalued due to their two blowout wins at home over the 76ers (123-70) and Timberwolves (131-117). Dallas is the not same offensive juggernaut on the road as they are at home and I look for them to struggle against what should be a highly motivated Charlotte team that is coming off an ugly 87-112 loss at Golden State.

The Bobcats went just 1-3 on their recent 4-game West Coast trip, which is also playing into this inflated line. Charlotte is 3-1 at home this season with the only loss coming 69-71 to Memphis. Defensively, the Bobcats have been a completely different team at home. Charlotte is only giving up 96.2 ppg on 42.7% shooting at Time Warner Cable Arena. The Bobcats have won each of the last two in the series at home, including a 114-89 victory in the most recent meeting, which just so happened to see Charlotte listed as a 4-point underdog.

The Bobcats have been a great team to back off a loss. Charlotte is 31-15 ATS over the last 2 seasons following a defeat. They are also a strong 6-1 ATS in their last 7 off a SU loss of more than 10 points and 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 home games. These trends combine to form a solid 69% (52-23) system in favor of the Bobcats. Take Charlotte!

3* Rockets/Thunder NBA Main Event on Rockets - 

This is a great spot to back the Rockets as a small road favorite against the Thunder. Houston was nearly upset last time out by the 76ers as a 16.5-point favorite, which I believe is a big reason they are showing value today against Oklahoma City. The Thunder have continued to play hard even with all the injuries, but they are no match for a motivated Houston squad.  

Houston is 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games after playing their previous game against the Eastern Conference and 25-13 ATS in their last 38 games when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. There's also a strong system in play. Road favorites who attempt 18 or more 3-point shots per game are 187-119 ATS since 1996. That's a 61% system in favor of the Rockets. Take Houston!

3* on Kentucky -30.5

I expect this Kentucky freight train to keep rolling against an under-sized and over-matched Buffalo team.  While this is an exceptional amount of points to cover, the Wildcats are still a young team and Calipari is not going to call off the dogs early - he's going to get his guys as many reps as possible.  He did just that in Friday night's game against Grand Canyon, which had an almost identical spread, with Kentucky rolling to a 40-point victory.  This really might be an even better matchup for this crew.  Take the Wildcats in a romp.

4* NBA Pacific Division Game of the Month on Clippers -

This is a great spot to back the Clippers at home, who is going to be highly motivated to come out strong after losing 85-89 at home to the Spurs last time out. LA has had a full 4-days of rest to regroup and get this thing turned around after their less than impressive 4-3 start. While the Clippers are as rested as they will be all season, Phoenix finds themselves in a tough scheduling spot. The Suns will be on the road in the second game of a back-to-back set and will also be playing their 3rd game in the last 4 days.

Los Angeles is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 off an upset loss as a favorite. There's also a nice system in play on the Clippers. Teams who have failed to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, who are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) against a winning team are 71-38 ATS since 1996. That's a 65% system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!

3* NCAAB Situational ATS Smash on Bowling Green +

The Falcons are showing a lot of value here as a 3.5-point underdog. Drake lost 3 starters from last year and are extremely thin up front. Not to mention they will be without the services of junior guard Gary Ricks Jr, who is their top returning scorer, and backup guard Karl Madison, as both are suspended for the first 3 games. Bowling Green on the other hand has 4 starters coming back and a new sense of energy and excitement around the program with the addition of head coach Chris Jans, who was a top assistant under Gregg Marshall at Wichita State. I'll gladly take the points, but I'm expecting the Falcons to win this one outright. Take Bowling Green!

4* NBA Big Chalk Game of the Month on Spurs -

The Spurs have returned to form after a sluggish start. San Antonio comes in off back-to-back impressive road wins over the Clippers (89-85) and Warriors (113-100) and should have no problem disposing of the Lakers to make it 3 in row. It's no secret that the Spurs have been one of the most efficient offensive teams in the league under Poppovich and I look for them to exploit a Lakers defense that is giving up 111.5 ppg and allowing opponents to shoot 49.8% from the field and 40.2% from long distance. In the Spurs last 167 games played against bad teams who are being outscored by 6+ points/game, they have won by an average of 11.1 ppg.

The Lakers have shown some life of late, which has resulted in them covering the spread in three straight games. I believe that has this line lower than what it should be. Keep in mind LA is just 5-17 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they come in having covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 games. San Antonio on the other hand is 23-11 ATS in their last 34 off a road win by 10 or more points.

There's also a strong system in play telling us to fade the Lakers. Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off a road game where they covered the spread as an underdog but lost outright are 38-71 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Spurs. Take San Antonio!

5* NCAAB Opening Night Game of the Year on Rice +

This is a big time fade of Oregon State. The Beavers went a respectable 16-16 (8-10 Pac-12), but with all five starters gone, including their star Roberto Nelson (20.7 ppg) this team is going to struggle. Their leading returning scorer is sophomore Langston-Morris Walker, who averaged a mere 4.0 ppg. Rice went a miserable 7-23 last year, but I'm expecting a big turnaround for the Owls under new head coach Mike Rhoades, who was one of Shaka Smart's top assistants at VCU. Rice at least has some experience to fall back on with 3 starters and a lot is expected out of freshman Bishop Mercy, who is a perfect fit for Rhoades system. I believe there's a good chance the Owls win this game outright. Take Rice!

3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS Blowout on Valparaiso -

Valparaiso will be out for revenge against East Tennessee State tonight, as the Crusaders lost 62-73 on the road to the Bucs. Valparaiso was in a major rebuilding phase last year, as they had three freshmen starters. One of those was All-Horizon forward Alec Peters, who led all Horizon freshmen in every category expect steals and assists. Peters is one of 4 starters back on a Crusaders team that should take a big step forward in the 4th year under head coach Bryce Drew. As for East Tennessee State, they return three starters, but lost their two big men inside. Having to rely on the outside shot on the road is bad recipe for success. Look for the Crusaders to win here by double-digits easily. Take Valparaiso!

3* NCAAB Undervalued Underdog on Citadel +

The Citadel is showing great value here in the opening round of the All Military Classic at Christl Arena in West Point. These two military schools are very familiar with one another, having played early in the season each of the last 3 years. VMI won last year's meeting 82-71 on their home floor, but the Citadel won 84-76 at home in 2012. This time the game will be played on a neutral setting and I like the Bulldogs chances of revenge. VMI lost two of their best players from last year in starting center D.J. Covington (20.1 ppg, 9.3 rpg) and guard Rodney Glasgow (18.9 ppg, 5.8 apg), while the Bulldogs return 4 of their 5 starters. Take the Citadel!

3* NBA Oddsmakers Error on 76ers +

This is a great spot to jump on the 76ers as a big dog against the Mavericks. Philadelphia is clearly getting no respect after their 0-7 start, but they haven't been at full strength. Starting point guard and reigning Rookie of the Year, Michael Carter-Williams, is set to make his season debut and they also will be getting back Nerlens Noel after he missed the last two. These are arguably the 76ers two best players. Carter-Williams is a difference maker for this team and I believe his return is going to install some confidence in the rest of the players.

With that said, Dallas is clearly the better team here. However, the Mavericks have lacked focus at times and I just don't see them being all that excited about playing the worst team in the league. Keep in mind that the Mavericks are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 home games when they come in having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games.

Dallas also hasn't been a great defensive team early on, which I believe will allow the 76ers to hang around and get the cover. The Mavericks are giving up 101.6 ppg and allowing opposing teams to shoot 46.9% from the field and 39.9% from long-distance.

We also see a nice system in play on the 76ers. Underdogs of 10 or more points who have lost 5 or more straight games that are well rested (4 or less games in 10 days) are 59-28 ATS since 1996. That's a 68% system in favor of the 76ers. Take Philadelphia!

3* NBA No Doubt ATS Rout on Knicks -

This is a great spot to back the Knicks at home, who are showing big time value due to their 5-game losing streak. We can expect to see max effort tonight from New York and that should be more than enough to win here by at least 7 points against a bad Orlando squad that is still without one of their top players in Victor Oladipo.

The Magic also find themselves in a bad scheduling spot. Orlando played in a high-scoring game last night in Toronto and also played on the road Sunday at Brooklyn. That puts them in a brutal scenario where they are not only playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back road set, but their 3rd road game in 4 days overall. The effort simply won't be there tonight. It's also worth noting that 5 of the Magic's 6 losses this season have come by at least 7-points.

I also think we are catching a favorable line here due to the Magic only losing by 4-points on the road against a quality Raptors team last night. However, this is the time you want to fade Orlando. The Magic are just 9-27 (25%) ATS over the last 3 seasons off a loss by 6-points or less. Orlando is also just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games with a total set between 190 and 194.5 points and 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games after their starters combined to play more than 160 minutes the previous day. These trends combine to form a 76% (59-19) system in favor of the Knicks. Take New York!

3* NBA Undervalued Underdog on Magic +

There's no question that the Raptors are playing like one of the top teams in the East to start the season, but I think the line here has been inflated due to their recent blowouts against the Wizards and 76eres. While Toronto has already went on the road and beat the Magic 108-95, that should serve as motivation for Orlando and make it difficult for the Raptors to take this game as seriously as they should. Toronto also has a huge home game on deck against the Bulls Thursday, which is part of the TNT double-header. Knowing that Chicago is considered one of the elite teams in the East, it's going to be difficult for the Raptors to not look ahead to that contest.

There's a nice system backing a play on the Magic as well. Underdogs of 10 or more points off back-to-back games that finished OVER the total, who are an average offensive team (92-98 ppg) against a average defensive team (92-98 ppg) are 41-15 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 73% system in favor of the Magic. Take Orlando!

5* Western Conference Game of Month on Clippers -

The Clippers are showing great value here as a small home favorite. Los Angeles comes into this season expecting to contend for a title and will be out to make a statement against the defending champs. The Spurs have struggled out of the gate and are clearly being overvalued by the books. San Antonio is just 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS. They have especially struggled in their two road games, losing at Phoenix 89-94 and at Houston 81-98.

Part of the problem for the Spurs is they are not 100%. They are missing a key piece of their offense in Patty Mills along with starting center Tiago Spiltter. Key reserve, Marco Belinelli is also questionable. It's also worth noting that the offense just isn't clicking right now for San Antonio. They come in ranked in the bottom 3rd in scoring (92.8 ppg), field goal percentage (43.2%), 3-point percentage (32.5%) and turnovers (18.2).

While the Spurs are struggling, Los Angeles comes in off their best showing of the season in a 106-102 home win over the Trail Blazers. The Clippers have scored at least 100 points in three straight and have shot no worse than 46.3% from the field during this stretch. With the advantage of playing at home, I look for LA to dictate the tempo and have no problem winning here by at least 3 points.

There's a nice system in play favoring the Clippers. Teams with a line of +3 to -3 who have +/- 3 points/game differential against an opponent that is -3 to -7 points/game differential, after 2 straight games where both teams score 100 or more points are 23-3 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 89% system in favor of the Clippers. Take Los Angeles!