3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Spurs -2
The Bucks are just 4-12 their last 16 games while the Spurs have rattled off wins in 6 of their last 8. Expect a couple day's rest to do this veteran Spurs team some good here as they take care of business on the road tonight. The Spurs are the more talented and the more experienced team, and they should bring a high energy level to this one coming off a loss and with plenty of rest. The Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record and the Bucks are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. the tough NBA Southwest Division. We'll lay the number.

3* Saturday Big East SMASH (CBS) on Seton Hall +3.5
Expert a hungry Seton Hall team here as it seeks to pay the Mountaineers back for handing it a lopsided defeat last season. I'm just not ready to trust WVU laying this much road chalk against a motivated opponent, especially when you consider that the Mountaineers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less, including 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 6.5 points or less. Take Seton Hall.

5* Christmas Day NBA *BEST BET* (ABC) on Lakers -5
While the Cavs would love to make a statement with a win here, I just don't see it happening. This will be Cleveland's 4th road games in 6 days with Wednesday's overtime game with Sacramento really taking a toll. The Lakers haven't played since the 22nd so they will have the big edge in terms of fresh legs. The Lakers won both meetings last season by double digits, and I can make a strong argument that they are now better with Ron Artest, while Cleveland seems to have taken a small step back. I won't be surprised if Shaq has a good game as he will be motivated to play his former team, but at the end of the day, the Lakers just have too much fire power with Gasol, Bryant, Bynum, Odom, and Artest. Cleveland had tons of trouble matching up with LA's size defensively last season and we saw the trouble it had again in the playoffs when facing the Magic. Size and length will prevail again here. The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. This line is soft. Take LA.

3* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on BYU -6.5
BYU is really lighting up the hoop right now and I don't think Nebraska has the offensive fire power to keep pace. In fact, BYU is 8-1 ATS after a game where it made 60% of its shots or better, winning in these spots by an average score of 80.1 to 70.2. I feel this line is a little soft and we'll look to take advantage. Lay the points.

5* Wednesday NBA *BEST BET* on Heat pk
I'll back a rested Heat team at home that has had Utah's number tonight, especially since the Jazz have played a lot of games in few days. The Jazz are 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Miami. The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and I expect them to bounce back here against a Jazz team that is just 5-8 on the road. Take Miami.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Rockets/Magic UNDER 200.5
Good Unders spot here as Houston put up a lot of points last night and I don't think it can do it again against a Magic team that is very good defensively and will likely be looking ahead to a Christmas game with Boston. The last 9 times these teams have faced off, the final score has been under the 200 mark. Bet the Under.

5* NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +10
The Thunder are an incredible 10-0 ATS after a game where they did not cover the number this season, bouncing back to win by an average score of 103.7 to 93.7 in these spots. The Thunder will be lacking no motivation tonight after falling to the Lakers 85-101 exactly 1 month ago. The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and they are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 meetings in Los Angeles against the Lakers. Take the points tonight.

3* SMASH (ESPN 2) on Cal +13
Odds makers are giving a little too much respect to the No. 1 team in the land tonight, just as you would expect them to with the public all over the Jayhawks. A big reason why you have to like Cal in this spot is because it takes extremely good care of the rock. In fact, the Golden Bears are a perfect 8-0 ATS under coach Montgomery after 2 straight games with 11 or less turnovers. Cal hasn't played since Dec. 9th so it has had a lot of time to prepare for the Jayhawks. We'll take the points.

3* SMASH (ESPN 2) on Michigan State +8.5
The Spartans have had Texas' number, picking up wins against the Horns each of the last 3 seasons. While Texas could finally have its revenge tonight, I can't see this one not being extremely close with the level of experience that Michigan State has and with as well as the Spartans defense. Let's just say that the Spartans have owned the Big 12 Conference over the last few seasons, racking up a 6-0 ATS mark while winning by an average score of 77.8 to 70.2. Michigan State has been chomping at the bit for another opportunity to show the country that it is better than it showed when it lost at UNC. Expect the Spartans to do just that tonight.

3* Monday Night NBA SMASH on Suns -2
I'll grab the Suns at home laying just a deuce as they are 10-0 at home this season, winning by an average of 14.1 points in these games. They can really run and gun on their home floor and I expect them to run a tired Cavs team, which just played last night, to death here. Plus, the Suns will be out to avenge a 17-point loss in Cleveland earlier this month. We have a nice system in our favor as well: plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3, an explosive offensive team (>=102 ppg) against a good offensive team (98-102 ppg), after a blowout win by 15 points or more, are 30-7 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Favorite is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. Take the Suns.

3* Monday Night NCAAB SMASH on South Carolina St +16
Iowa is 2-8 ATS in all lined games and 1-5 ATS in all lined home games this season. It is coming off an emotional win over in-state rival Drake and I just don't see the Hawkeyes getting up for this game the same way. Iowa is not an explosive offensive team. It plays half court basketball, and as a result, is only scoring 63.1 ppg this season, which makes the 16 we are catching even more valuable. The Hawkeyes are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater. Also, plays against favorites of 10 or more points who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game, playing in the month of December, are 39-18 ATS the last 5 seasons. Iowa is not a high pressure defensive team which looks to covert turnovers into points, which is another factor making these 16 points look pretty good. Take the points.

5* Saturday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats -3
Tough spot for the Jazz playing back-to-back against a Bobcats team that is well rested and has been strong at home all season. The Cats are 9-3 SU & 8-4 ATS at home this season while Utah is just 4-7 SU & ATS on the road. Charlotte is a perfect 2-0 SU & ATS at home against the Jazz the last 2 seasons, winning those games by 7 points on average. Plus, Utah is just 8-18 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 101.2 to 107.5, and just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 back-to-backs. The Home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. Lastly, the Jazz are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Lay the number.

4* Major ESPN Game of the Week on North Carolina +7
Texas is laying too many points on a neutral floor. I know this game is still in Texas, but it won't be the same as if the Horns were playing in their home gym. UNC has the athletes and the talent to matchup well with Texas and the Heels will also find themselves more prepared for the intensity of this game having played a much tough schedule to this point. The Tar Heels are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the points.

3* NCAAB Home Court Crusher on CS Northridge -2.5
Drexel is just 1-4 on the road this season and I expect it to struggle playing a long ways away from home against a CS Northridge team that is 3-0 at home on the year. Northridge is coming off back-to-back road losses so it will be extremely pumped to get back on its home floor tonight. Northridge will draw additional motivation from a loss at Drexel last season. It lost by 8 points as a 3-point dog in that game and I expect it to return the favor here. The Dragons are just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less while the Matadors are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. Lay the number.

4* Major NCAAB Line Mistake of the Week on San Jose State +2
Believe the wrong team is favored here. The Spartans have 1 less win on the season, but they have played a much more challenging schedule. Plus, San Jose State brings back more experience with 4 returning starters. The Spartans are now 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning SU record and on a terrific 15-5 ATS run in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams making >=37% of their attempts. Take San Jose State tonight.

5* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year on Thunder -5
Detroit is really banged up with Tayshaun Prince out and Rip Hamilton and Ben Gordon listed as questionable. Even Rodney Stuckey is not at 100% percent. Even if Hamilton and Gordon are able to go, they won't be healthy enough to drop a big night on the Thunder. Detroit is just 3-10 on the road this season and it has lost back-to-back road games by 11 and 8 points. The Thunder have lost 3 in a row so they will be very hungry to get back in the win column tonight. It's not that the Thunder are playing bad, they have just come up against superior teams (Cleveland, Denver, Dallas) and they will be excited to go up against an opponent they believe they are better than tonight. The Thunder have won the last two meetings in this series by 10 and 8 points and they are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against the Pistons. It has also been a money play to take the Thunder after a game where they failed to cover the spread as they are a perfect 9-0 ATS in this role this season, winning by an average score of 103.1 to 93.2 in these games. The Thunder are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet the Thunder.

3* Thursday Night NBA SMASH on Knicks +3
The Knicks are playing better ball than the Bulls right now and I feel they are worth a shot catching 3 points here because of it. The Bulls have dropped 6 of 7 and 11 of 13 SU and they are just 1-5-1 ATS & 2-9-2 ATS during those skids. Meanwhile, the Knicks have won 4 of 5, including a pair of nice road wins at Atlanta and New Orleans during this stretch. They are 4-1 ATS in those games and 10-4 ATS their last 14 games. The Knicks beat the Hawks by 7 points on the road back on December 4th while the Bulls were destroyed at Atlanta 83-118 on December 9th. While I know the Bulls are a much better home team at 6-5 at home this season, they are just 3-6-2 ATS in those games and 6-15-2 ATS in all games this season. The Knicks are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Chicago. They are also an impressive 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bulls are a terrible 2-11-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite and 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the points.

3* Wednesday NBA SMASH on Mavs -2
Dallas has been among the best teams in the NBA on the road this season with a 9-4 SU & ATS mark. The Mavs enter this contest having won 4 straight and I expect them to keep rolling. OKC is a solid 6-6 SU & 7-5 ATS at home this season, but the teams it has lost to at home tell the story tonight. Since November 29th, OKC has lost at home to Houston, Boston, and Cleveland - all better teams, while it has defeated Philly and Golde State. I think the Mavs just have a few too many weapons for the Thunder to contend with tonight and that will be the difference. The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite while the Thunder are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Plus, the Mavericks are 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 road games in the series. Take Dallas.

3* Wednesday NCAAB SMASH on Richmond +5
Richmond is a dangerous dog at a deadly 14-4 ATS in the underdog roll over the last 2 seasons. Richmond is also a very resilient team so I expect it to be extremely focused tonight after a loss in its last game. It also comes as no surprise that it is 19-5 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Also, Richmond is 8-0 ATS versus very good teams, who are outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons, winning straight up in these spots by an average score of 70.6 to 69.9. The Gamecocks are just 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 home games and I think they are getting too much respect tonight. Take the points.

3* SMASH on Louisiana Tech -3
Louisiana Tech won at Murray State by 9 points last season in a game where it was a 9.5-point dog. Now Tech has home court on its side and I expect it to take better advantage of that than Murray State did last season. Tech has been on the road a lot in the early part of the season so it will be happy to see its home floor tonight where it is 2-0 with a pair of blowout wins. The key tonight is how well the Bulldogs have played against good competition since the beginning of last season. In fact, Tech is 16-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record during the span. Tech has a huge size advantage which should win it the battle of the boards and the game. Can't see a smaller Murray State team having an answer for the 6'11 Magnum Rolle. Lay the points.

3* NBA SMASH on Bobcats -4.5
The Knicks have rattled off 4 straight, but I look for their winning streak to end in Charlotte tonight. The Bobcats will be a hungry team off back-to-back losses and they will be very confident in this one against a team they have owned. The Bobcats are 3-1 SU & ATS their L4 and 7-3 SU & ATS their last 10 home games against the Knicks. Charlotte is 8-3 at home this season and the reason it is defending its home court so well is because it is holding its opponents to just 89.8 ppg. The Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less points, and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. It is also worth noting that the Bobcats are 18-6 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots per game over the last 2 seasons. Lay the number.

3* NBA "Total" *Crunch Time Bailout* on Wizards/Clippers OVER 193.5
The Over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams and I expect this trend to continue tonight. Washington has a very talented offensive lineup and it is starting to show as the Wiz have scored 102 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games. Defense is the issue with Washington right now, and during this same stretch it has allowed 102 or more points in 5 of 6 games. The Over is also 25-11 in the Wizards' last 36 vs. the NBA Pacific. Expect Washington's offense to stay sharp as it goes after a much needed win tonight, but also expect its defense to continue to struggle as it is allowing 101.2 ppg. We'll bet the Over.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Warriors/76ers UNDER 211.5
Odds makers have set the bar too high here as this is not the same high-scoring Warriors team of a year ago, especially on the road where they have played to the Under in 4 straight while only besting the 100-point mark 1 time during this stretch. Philly is only averaging 91.3 ppg at home on the season and has now played to the Under in 3 straight while failing to score more than 91 points during this stretch. It is worth nothing that the 76ers are 8-3 Under at home this season. Also, Philly is 17-4 Under after playing 2 consecutive home games since the beginning of last season with the average score totaling just 185.7 points. Lastly, the Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Philadelphia between these two teams. Bet the Under.

4* Major NCAAB *BEST BET* on Villanova -3
Nova is the better team. While Temple will likely hang around for a while, Nova will have too much down the stretch not to win and cover this number. While Temple is good defensively, it isn't good enough to keep Nova's much stronger offense in check all game long. This game reminds me a lot of the 2007 game when Nova was a 2.5-point favorite and won by 8 points at Temple. The Cats have covered 4 straight in this matchup and are 10-2 ATS in the last 12. Take Nova.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Suns/Nuggets OVER 225.5
We've seen these two teams combine for 232 and 233 points in each of their last two games and I expect another high scoring affair tonight. In fact, the Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings, including 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Denver. The Nuggets have been held under the 100-point mark in 3 straight games so they will really look to push the pace in their return home tonight where they are averaging 117.2 ppg. We'll take the Over.

5* Saturday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Nuggets -8.5
The public is on the Suns here and that is right where the books want them. Phoenix is in a tough spot, having just played a hard-fought game against the Magic last night. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are back home where they are 9-1 this season (winning by 13.9 ppg) and with a day's rest in their favor. Fatigue will play a major factor in this one as the Suns are only 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. This has been a matchup dominated by the home team as the home squad is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. In fact, the Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Denver. Since the beginning of last season, Denver is on a 12-1 ATS run as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, winning in these spots by 15.6 points on average. We'll take the Nuggets at home tonight.

3* Saturday Night NCAAB *BEST BET* on Northern Iowa -3
This is a revenge game for the Panthers who bring back all 5 starters from a team that lost at Siena by 6 points last season. I expect the Panthers to return the favor at home tonight where they are holding their opponents to just 47.5 ppg. Siena hasn't seen a team that gets after its opponents on the defensive end like UNI all season and this defense will be the key to a win and cover for the Panthers tonight. The Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall and an even stronger 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record. We'll lay the points on UNI at home in this revenge spot.

5* NBA Total of the Week on Blazers/Cavs UNDER 187.5
The public is all over the over, driving this line up from its opening mark of 184. Right away, you have to like the Under here when you consider that plays Under on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in December games, are 24-4 the last 5 seasons (85.7%). You also have to like the fact that Portland is 14-3 Under in road games on Friday nights over the last 3 seasons. The Under is also 7-1 in the Trail Blazers' last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. I expect a very physical, defensive battle resulting in the Under coming through for us tonight.

3* NCAAB "Total" Dominator on Iowa/Iowa State UNDER 129
Iowa is anemic offensively, scoring only 55.7 ppg on the road, as they rely too heavily on 3-point shooting and they are only hitting 29.6% of their 3-point shots away from home. Iowa State is 8-1 Under when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons, holding these opponents to just 57.4 ppg. The last time these two teams met in Ames we saw a 56-47 ball game and this one has all the making of a similar result. Bet the Under.

5* NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Magic -2
The Jazz have historically been a good home team, and they are 9-3 at home this season, but this is a really tough spot for them tonight. The Jazz played the Lakers tough for 3 quarters last night and then they were absolutely crushed in the 4th. While they would like to bounce back tonight, I don't think they'll have the legs to get it done against a Magic team that is rested and that has been one of the best road teams in the league the past couple seasons. In fact, the Magic are 10-2 on the road this season. Plus, the Jazz get the Lakers again in two nights so I expect them to be much more concerned with having their revenge in that game than this one. Utah is just 7-18 ATS when playing on back-to-back days since the beginning of last season, losing in these spots by 7 points on average. The Jazz are also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. With their banged up roster, I just don't see Utah having the depth to get it done tonight. The Magic are 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Utah and 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings overall. Take the Magic.

4* NBA Total Dominator on Warriors/Nets UNDER 219

Way too many points tonight for a New Jersey team that is only scoring 88.2 ppg at home on less than 40% shooting and 26.5% shooting from behind the arc. I know the Warriors like to get out and run as evidenced by their 114 ppg against on the year, but the Nets don't have the fire power to keep up with a high-scoring game, and they have now won two out of their last three. I think this means they want to keep up their hot streak to get out of the cellar as the laughing stock of the NBA. I think they slow the pace down to keep this one close so go with the UNDER.

3* CBB Revenge Blowout on Boston College -11.5

Harvard went into Boston last year and gave the Eagles a 82-70 beatdown that you can bet they won't forget. Harvard is coming off a hard fought game against UConn in which they battled tough to a six-point loss, but the Huskies most likely were looking past them to their showdown with Kentucky tonight. The Eagles have played a decent schedule up to this point, beating times like Miami, Michigan and Providence in their last three. This is a lot of points to be laying tonight, but when a team has revenge on their minds you know they are not going to be content with winning a close one. Take BC to win big.

5* Motivational Mismatch Game of the Year on K-State -5
The last time these two teams faced off, Xavier handed K-State an embarrassing 103-77 loss, a loss the players and their head coach are calling one of the worst they've ever endured. Now K-State is the more experienced side and it won't be short on motivation to return the favor to Xavier tonight. This is also an extremely difficult spot for Xavier as they play their first true road game against a Wildcat team that has not lost at home this season. We also have a strong system play in support of our side that tells us to play on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after leading their last 3 games by 5 or more points at the half, with four starters returning from last year's team in the first 10 games of the season. This system is a terrific 29-8 ATS since 1997 and it has seen teams favored by an average of 6.4 points win by an average of 12.1 points. It is also worth noting that this system is 10-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points.

4* Major NBA "Total" Revenger on Bucks/Celtics UNDER 195.5
This line opened at 191 and has been bet all the way up to where we see it now as the public is pounding the Over. I already like the Under at its opening line and this line move has created additional value. Boston is only allowing 90.6 ppg and I can't see a Bucks team that has struggled to score the rock on the road all season (just 93.6 ppg) getting loose for a big night here. Boston went through a little 3-game spell where it forgot how to play defense but since the Celtics have held their last 4 opponents to 90 or fewer points and all 4 of those games were played on the road. Milwaukee is 15-4 Under in road games against Atlantic Division opponents since the beginning of the 2007 season. The average total score in these games has been just 188.2 points. Pound the Under.

3* SMASH on T-Wolves/Raptors UNDER 208
With Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani both listed as questionable for tonight's game, points will be tough to come by for the Raptors. Bosh is suffering from the flu and Bargnani is dealing with a bad ankle. Even if 1 or both are able to go, their effectiveness will be extremely limited due to their conditions. Here's the clincher: Toronto is 8-0 Under in home games versus terrible defensive teams allowing 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with the average score totaling just 199.4 points. And this trend is a perfect 3-0 this season. Bet the Under.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Blazers/Knicks OVER 200
This line opened at 204 and it has been bet all the way down to where we see it now creating solid value on the Over. We've seen the Knicks play 7 straight games where the final score would have come in over this number and I believe that trend continues tonight. Portland is a pretty good defensive team, but it certainly takes a hit on the defensive end after losing Greg Oden. In fact, the Blazers have allowed 106 or more points in 3 of their last 4 games. The Knicks love to push the pace at home where they are scoring 103.9 ppg and allowing 109.1 ppg. NY is 14-3 Over in home games off a home win since the beginning of the 2007 season, with the combined score totaling 215.6 points in these games. Also, NY is 22-6 Over in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins during the same span, with the combined score totaling 215.3 points in these games. We'll take the Over.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Hawks/Mavs UNDER 204.5
Expect Atlanta to really buckle down on the defensive end tonight after a pair of subpar performances to keep this one Under. In fact, Atlanta is 15-5 Under after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons and 20-6 Under in road games after a game where they allowed a shooting pct. of 55% or higher since 1996. Plus, with both teams having played last night I don't expect a lot of running and gunning here. Bet the Under.

3* Saturday NCAAB Line Mistake on Penn St +7.5
I think the odds makers are spotting the Nittany Lions too many points today and we'll look to take advantage. The Underdog is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings and Penn State has been outstanding when catching points. In fact, the Nittany Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Penn State was upset by 6 points by Temple last season and it will have a great opportunity to return the favor here. Take the points as this one goes right down to the wire.

5* NBA Central Division Game of the Year (ESPN) on Cavs -12
The Bulls have lost 5 straight games on the road with 4 of those losses coming by 15 or more points. The Cavs are rolling, having won 13 of their last 16 games. In their last 2 games, they crushed Dallas by 16 and Phoenix by 17 points. Plus, they'll be very hungry tonight after going down to Chicago by 1 point at home in the season's first meeting back on Nov. 5. Before that loss, the Cavs had won their two previous home games against the Bulls by scores of 14 and 25 points and I expected another lopsided win here. The Bulls are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Cleveland and the Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. the NBA Central. Plus, the Bulls are short on quality depth right now with Tyrus Thomas expected to be out until mid-December and with Kirk Hinrich also listed as doubtful for tonight. Lay the number.

3* SMASH on Illinois Chicago +9.5
Odds makers are giving Wisconsin Milwaukee far too much respect here simply because they knew the public would bite hard on the team with the better record. Truth is, non-conference records don't always tell the truth. Illinois Chicago has hung tight with a couple solid teams from the MVC while Wisconsin Milwaukee has beat up on a bunch of cream puffs. This matchup has been a tight one in recent years with the last 3 meetings being decided by 8 points or less and I expect no different here. Plus, it's nice to know we're backing a team that covered 7 of its last 8 and 5 straight in Horizon league play. Take the points.

3* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Kings pk
The Kings are 7-2 SU & ATS at home this season and they are rolling with 3 straight blowout wins. Meanwhile, the Pacers are just 2-4 SU & ATS on the road and have lost 6 of their last 7, including their last 2 by double digits. The Kings will be up for this one big time as they look to avenge 4 straight losses to the Pacers. We also have to take into consideration that the Kings have had the extra day of rest and they are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games playing on 2 days rest. Lastly, plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3, an explosive offensive team (102 or more ppg) against a good offensive team (98-102 ppg), after a blowout win by 15 points or more, are 28-7 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Kings.

4* Major Wednesday Night NCAAB *BEST BET* on Tulsa -2
It's no surprise the public is siding with the unbeaten Cowboys here, but I am confident in saying Tulsa is the better team, especially at home where it is 5-0 this season and 38-4 the last 3 seasons. The Golden Hurricane are the most talented team in C-USA, returning 4 starters from a team that won 25 games last season. They bring back more experience than the Cowboys and a slower style of play that will give an Oky State team preferring to play in transition fits tonight. The Golden Hurricane are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or less points while the Cowboys are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or less points. Take Tulsa.

3* SMASH on Hawks -9
After a poor showing at Detroit in their last game, expect to see the Hawks, who are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS at home this season, crush the Raptors, who are 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS on the road this season and just played last night. Toronto is 0-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons, losing in these spots by 10.7 points on average. Take the Hawks.

5* NBA "Total" Dominator on Raptors/Hawks OVER 211
The Raptors are giving up 112.1 ppg on the road this season and their poor defense gives us a solid Overs opportunity tonight. The Hawks are 6-2 Over at home this season and they'll be hungry to run up the score after being held to just 88 points last game. The last time these two teams faced off, they combined for 228 points and I believe they are good for at least 215 tonight. Plays Over on Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - cold team failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, are 25-6 the last 5 season. Bet the Over.

4* Major Tuesday NCAAB *BEST BET* (ESPN) on Michigan State +2.5
Expect Sparty to have its revenge tonight after falling to the Heels in last year's National Title Game. Michigan State brings back the much more experienced team and the much better defensive team. While UNC is off to a 6-1 start, it has not been burying its opponents the way we are used to seeing early in the season as this young group of Heels still has plenty to learn about the defensive end of the floor. Losing to Florida was the early season wake up call the Spartans needed. They bounced back from that loss with an impressive 106-68 win over UMass and they will not be lacking motivation here. One big key here is that Michigan State should win the battle of the boards and UNC is on a 6-17 ATS slide in home games vs. dominant rebounding teams, outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game. Also, Michigan State 6-0 ATS after 2 straight games where they made 50% of their shots or better since the beginning of the 2007 season and UNC is 0-8 ATS in home games after 2 consecutive non-conference games since the beginning of last season. Take Michigan State.

4* Major NBA "Total" Dominator on Suns/Knicks UNDER 227
This matchup has gone Over the total in 8 straight meetings in New York. Both the odds makers and the betting public are very conscious of that. That's why the books have set this number 7.5 points higher than the previously posted high in New York of 219.5 to catch the public as they pound the over tonight. This has created outstanding value in taking the Under, especially since the Suns will be more worried about Cleveland tomorrow night and they will be without spark plug Leandro Barbosa. Plus, Mike D'Antoni knows his former team well. In fact, he knows them well enough to know better than to think he can beat them in a foot race when Phoenix is the superior run and gun team. I don't expect the Knicks to completely take the air out of the ball, but I do look for them to be more selective about when they run, likely doing so when Steve Nash is on the bench so the Suns can't counter as quickly. Of those 8 straight Overs in New York, it is worth noting that, only two have gone over the number we have here, and one of those games was an overtime affair. Bet the Under.

4* Major Sunday NBA "Total" Dominator on Magic/Knicks OVER 205.5
New York plays absolutely no defense at home, allowing 111.2 ppg. With New York controlling the tempo, making this an up and down game, I look for a lot of points to be scored. First off, plays Over on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Orlando) playing on back-to-back days, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season, are 55-25 since 1996. The Over is also 6-1 in the Knicks' last 7 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 and 5-1 in their last 6 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. With Orlando playing back-to-back, its defense will suffer as well. Bet the Over.

3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Cavs -6.5
Both the Mavs and the Cavs played last night, but Cleveland was upset at Charlotte and that is the key. Expect the Cavs to respond in a big way at home tonight. Cleveland is 16-2 ATS off a road loss since the beginning of last season, exploding to win in these spot by an average score of 103.5 to 90.8. It is also 9-1 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite during this span, winning by an average score of 102.7 to 89.9 in these spots. Lay the number.

3* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on Illinois -8
I like Illinois to flex its muscles against a young Utah team tonight. Utah is 2-2 on the season and could easily be 1-3. After losing its three best players off last year's team, I expect the Utes to really struggle this season. The Fighting Illini are an impressive 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a favorite and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS loss. Odds makers are yet to adjust their line to the current state of each team, an Illinois team that is improved and a Utah team that is mediocre at best. Lay the number.

3* SMASH on Cavs/Bobcats UNDER 186
Only 169 total points scored in the first meeting this season and I'm expecting low scoring affair here as plays Under on any team (Bobcats) after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against an opponent after leading in its previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 29-6 since 1996. This system shows how the line can be inflated based on a teams previous game and that is certainly the case here. We'll take the Under.

5* NBA Total of the Week on 76ers/Celtics UNDER 189
I really think this is a strong Unders opportunity tonight. Philly just played last night in an up and down game and now it must take on a Boston team that hasn't played since Sunday. Boston is one of the premier defensive teams in the league, especially at the Garden where it is only allowing 88.4 ppg. The Celtics should be especially concerned with the defensive end tonight after giving up 105 points to the Knicks last game. These teams have already met once this season and only 179 total points were scored. It is also highly in our favor that the Under is 6-0 in the 76ers' last 6 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game and 6-0 in the Celtics' last 6 game after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Also, consider that the Under is 15-3 in the 76ers' last 18 games as an underdog of 11.0 or more points. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA Top Side on Bobcats -2
The Bobcats are 14-4 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less the past 2 seasons and 12-2 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more since the beginning of last season. The Raptors have struggled on the road at just 2-6 on the season as they are allowing 111.1 ppg away from home. Bet the Bobcats.

4* Major NBA "Total" Annihilator on Nets/Nuggets UNDER 203
The Nets are awful. They are 0-13 on the season and scoring only 84.9 ppg. The Nets have broke the century mark only once this season and have scored 94 or fewer in the rest of their games, including 85 or fewer in 8 games. The Nets could actually score a few more points, but they know that they don't have the bodies to run and gun with most teams so they have taken the air out of the ball to stay as competitive as possible. That's why the Nets are only giving up 95.1 ppg. Plus, I don't expect Denver to try to really run up the score here when it plays on the road tomorrow night. New Jersey is 8-0 UNDER after 5 or more consecutive losses this season and Denver is 7-0 UNDER after a combined score of 205 points or more this season. The UNDER is also 5-0 in the Nets' last 5 road games. Bet the Under.

5* NCAAB Game of the Month on Cornell +14
This is a huge letdown spot for Syracuse tonight after big wins over Cal and UNC. The Orange aren't as talented or as experienced as they were a season ago, making this an even tougher spot for them. Cornell returns all 5 starters from a team that has made the NCAA tourney back-to-back years now and presents problems for the Orange because of how dangerous it is from beyond the arc. Boeheim sticks with his patented zone through thick and thin but Cornell is shooting 46.2% from 3 in two road games this season. The Big Red actually had the Orange down 16 points in the Carrier Dome last season. A better Syracuse team was able to come back to win by 10 points but Cornell still easily covered the 16-point number. In fact, the Big Red are a Perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games at Syracuse. I must also mention that this is a very motivated spot for Cornell after being upset by Seton Hall and it is on a perfect 7-0 ATS run in road games off an upset loss by 10 points or more. Also, the Big Red are 13-1-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home and 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a road underdog of 13.0 or more points. The Big Red are also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. the Big East while the Orange are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. the Ivy League. The public is all over the Orange as they are off to a 4-0 SU & ATS start. The books knew what side the money would be going down on here and they have given themselves a cushion with the Big Red. The odds makers expect to make bank with Cornell tonight, but we make sure they make a little less. Take the points.

3* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on Texas -14.5
Iowa's point guard and best player, Jake Kelly transferred following last season and that has left the Hawkeyes in bad shape. They are giving up a ton in size, talent, and athletic ability in this one; so much that I don't think they can keep this one under a 20-point loss. Iowa lives and dies by the three, but Texas is long and athletic and has shown a willingness to defense early one, limiting its opponents to 17.2% from the 3-point line. Texas will treat this one like its first challenge of the season since it is playing a major conference team for the first time and that doesn't look good for Iowa. Lay the number.

3* SMASH on Bucks +9
San Antonio's half court style of play is not conducive to many blowouts, especially when it is not defending well, which it has not. The Spurs are allowing 97.5 ppg and that's bad for them. Milwaukee is on fire, having won 7 of 8 as rookie Brandon Jennings continues to take the league by storm. They have also covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 and are an impressive 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings with the Spurs. The Bucks are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog while the Spurs are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Think San Antonio is being overvalued tonight. Take the points.

4* Major NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on Vandy +5
Last Friday, I took St. Mary's for an easy late night winner as they took on an inferior New Mexico State team missing some key players. Saint Mary's 2 blowout wins to start the year are the reason why we are seeing it laying so many points here. Today, I'm going to fade the Gaels as they get their first test of the season against a more experienced Vandy team with all 5 starters returning. Right away history is on our side when you consider that plays on any team after a blowout win by 20 points or more, with 3 or more starters returning than their opponent, in the first ten games of the season, are 66-36 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, the Commodores are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games following a SU win of more than 20 points while St. Mary's is on a 2-10 ATS run after 2 straight games where they made 10 or more 3 point shots. The Gaels won't get as many good looks tonight and with the 3's not falling with regularity, I look for Vandy to win this one outright.

5* ESPN Game of the Month on Celtics -6
Without Jameer Nelson, I don't give the Magic a chance at Boston tonight against a highly motivated Celtics team ready to make a statement after getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Magic last season. Expect a big game from Kevin Garnett, who was forced to miss last year's playoff series with an injury, and expect Rajon Rondo to dominate the point guard battle. The home team is 25-12 ATS in the last 37 meetings and the Magic are just 5-14 ATS in the last 19 meetings in Boston. Expect the Celtics to send a message tonight.

3* SMASH on Grizzlies/76ers OVER 194
I think the odds makers have undershot this number when you consider how poorly the Grizzlies have played on the defensive end on the road, allowing 117.3 points per game in 6 road contests. Memphis would prefer to get out and run with its young and talented lineup and an uptempo game is sure to bring out the best in the 76ers offensively. In games against uptempo teams Phoenix and New York, the 76ers scored 115 and 141 points respectively. The Over is 7-1 in the 76ers last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the Over.

5* NBA Western Conf Total of the Month on Jazz/Spurs UNDER 199.5
We'll look to take advantage of another solid Unders situation tonight. Both of these veteran teams just played last night so they won't have the legs to make this one a fastbreak affair. Besides, this one is in San Antonio where the Spurs prefer the halfcourt game. Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli are both listed as doubtful for this game which forces coach Popovich to take the air out of the basketball even more than usual to give his team the best chance to win. Parker and Ginobli are the Spurs' best open court players and without them they won't get much of anything in transition tonight. The Under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 games playing without rest, but here's the clincher: San Antonio is 12-1 Under after a game where they had 2 or less steals over the last 3 seasons, with the average score in these spots totaling just 183.1 points. Without Parker and Ginobli (for much of the night) last night, the Spurs weren't able to come up with many thefts. Same case tonight and that limits transition buckets. Bet the Under.

5* Wednesday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Nets/Bucks UNDER 189
The Nets are really hurting for offense right now with all their injuries. They have scored 83 or fewer points in each of their last 5 games and find themselves in a really tough spot tonight having just played last night. Milwaukee has put up some big offensive numbers recently but consider the opponents (New York, Denver, Golden State, Dallas), all teams that like to run and gun. We certainly won't see the Nets push the tempo tonight as they just played last night and they know they can't win that way. We've seen this matchup play to the Under in 3 straight, 10 of the last 14 overall, and 8 of the last 11 in Milwaukee. The Nets have gone Under in 6 straight now I'll ride the Under with them again here.

4* Major NBA Underdog Shocker on Washington Wizards +5
This is a very tough spot for the shorthanded Cavs, which just played an uptempo basketball game last night against the Warriors. Washington has lost 6 straight so it couldn't be hungrier, and it has had 3 days to rest and prepare. No matter how much better Cleveland may be, Washington always seems to play the Cavs tough. In fact, the Wizards are 5-2 in their last 7 home games against the Cavs. In terms of the number, the Cavs are just 1-4 ATS in the last 5 overall meetings and the Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 overall meetings. With Shaquille O'Neal, Anderson Varejao, and Jamario Moon likely sidelined tonight, and with Antawn Jamison likely to see his first action of the season for the Wiz, I can't see the Cavs escaping with a win. Take the points.

5* NBA Line Mistake of the Week on Bulls/Kings UNDER 198
Chicago's defense is very strong this season and the books are not taking that into account enough with this line. In fact, the Bulls have held 6 of their 9 opponents to 90 or fewer points and the Under is 7-2 on the Bulls this season as a result. The Kings aren't as strong as the Bulls defensively, but Chicago has struggled on the road this season, scoring only 88 points per in 4 road games. In fact, Chicago is 19-6 Under versus poor defensive teams allowing a shooting percentage of 46% or better over the last 2 seasons. Also, the Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in this head-to-head. Bet the Under.

4* Major Tuesday Night NCAAB Blowout on Illinois -21
NIU lost by 22 in its first game to Northwestern and it is clearly out of its league against the Illini tonight. In fact, plays on home favorites of 20 or more points off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, in November games, are 71-32 ATS since 1997. Also, NIU is just 2-10 ATS as a road underdog or pick since the beginning of last season while Illinois in on a 10-1 ATS run in home games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game, winning in these spots by an average score of 81.8 to 59.7. Lay the points.

3* SMASH on Bucks -1
Without Josh Howard, Tim Thomas, and likely Eric Dampier, the Mavs are in a tough spot being shorthanded playing the 2nd game of a back-to-back. Besides that, the Mavs will be much more interested in their next opponent as they look ahead to a revenge matchup with San Antonio after falling to the Spurs on 11/11. The Bucks have won 4 in a row as teams have not had an answer for rookie sensation Brandon Jennings. Also, the Mavs have found Milwaukee an extremely difficult place to play in recent years, losing 9 of the last 12 games there. In fact, the Mavericks are 0-9 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Milwaukee. Bet the Bucks tonight.

3* SMASH on Indiana State +11
Indiana State came on strong at the end of last season and it returns 4 starters from that team. It also inherits the best player off the Big Ten's Iowa Hawkeyes, Jake Kelly, who transferred to be closer to home concerning personal family matters. He averaged 11.6 ppg for Iowa last season and he scored 16 points in ISU's opener. He is a tall guard, who handles the ball extremely well. He can shoot off the dribble and is a solid playmaker. He's a player I believe will take the MVC by storm. Expect a down season from LSU and some early struggles as it adjusts to a lot of new faces getting a lot of playing time. Consider that LSU is on a 2-11 slide as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points, winning in these spot by just 3.3 point on average. Lastly, the Sycamores are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. I'll take the points.

3* NCAAB Season Opener on St. Mary's CA -7
New Mexico St is 2-10 ATS in road games in non-conference play over the last 2 seasons, losing in these spots by an average of 12.3 ppg. Plus, New Mexico State will be without of a pair of players who averaged double digits for them last season as both Wendell McKines and Troy Gillenwater sit for academic purposes. That's just too many points missing for the rest of the guys to make up here. Lay the number.

3* NBA Crunch Time Bailout on Raptors/Clippers UNDER 206
Can't see this one going over with the amount of players out and the amount of players playing banged up in this one. No Eric Gordon (LA's 2nd leading scorer), Chris Kaman is questionable with a virus and will be lacking energy if he does go. On the Toronto side Turkoglu and Bosh are both banged up among others. Basically, recent results have forced odds makers to set an unrealistic line here. Plays Under on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Raptors) after going over the total by 30 or more points in their last three games, playing on Friday nights, are 76-39 since 1996.

5* Friday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +5
The Kings, who only have one less win on the season than Houston, are not getting nearly enough respect tonight, especially when you consider that they are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. It is also crucial that Sacramento is well rested here as it is 18-7 ATS when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 103 to 101.8. The Rockets got out of the gate fast but are since coming back down to earth. Sac is improved and I like it outright tonight.

3* SMASH on Nets +15.5
The Magic are being way overvalued against the winless Nets tonight, especially when you consider that the Magic are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Nets played the Magic to a 10-point game in the first meeting and I like them to keep this one within the number tonight.

3* NBA "Total" Revenger on Cavs/Heat UNDER 180.5
Miami has played to the Under in 6 straight games and the Cavs have come in Under the total in 6 of their last 7. The Under is the play again here. Cleveland just played last night so tired legs will be an issue. Also, it is going to be very tough for the Cavs to get up for this one after such an emotional win last night over a Magic team that knocked them out of the playoffs. Miami and Cleveland both prefer to play half court hoops and both teams are playing exceptionally well on the defensive end, especially the Heat. Miami has held 5 of its 7 opponents to 89 or fewer points, allowing only 88.6 ppg this season. Meanwhile the Cavs are only allowing 90.2 ppg this season. This matchup has long been an Under machine with the Under going 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Miami and 13-6 in the last 19 meetings overall. The Under is 6-0 in the Heat's last 6 games playing on 1 days rest and 14-2 in their last 16 games following a S.U. win. Bet the Under.

3* SMASH on Nuggets/Bucks UNDER 197
We've seen the Under in all 5 of Milwaukee's games this season and I believe we'll see it again here. Denver is coming off an emotionally and physically draining win in Chicago last night and will find it very difficult to get up for this one, especially with the Lakers on deck. The Bucks are averaging only 90.4 ppg and giving up just 85.2. Denver is 14-4 Under when playing its 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Under.

3* SMASH on Blazers/T-Wolves UNDER 190
System Play: Plays Under on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (Blazer); excellent free throw shooting team (79% or better) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), good ball handling team (14.5 or less turnovers per game) against an average pressure defensive team (14.5-16.5 turnovers forced per game) are 35-12 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Under.

5* NBA Total of the Month on Jazz/Celtics UNDER 189
Deron Williams is questionable for tonight's game and even if he can go, I don't expect his normal points considering he only scored 5 points against the Knicks weak defense when playing with the back injury a couple nights ago. Boston is only allowing 84.4 ppg this season and it hasn't played since the 7th so I'm expecting continued strong defensive play. Plus, Utah is going through its normal road struggles, scoring only 95.0 ppg on the road. The Under is 13-3-1 in the Celtics' last 17 vs. the NBA Northwest and I look for this trend to continue here. Bet the Under.

4* Major on Warriors/Pacers OVER 221.5
Expect the Warriors and the Pacers to shatter the total tonight. The last 3 times these two teams have gotten together, we've seen at least 237 points put up on the scoreboard. The Warriors are getting torched for 121.5 ppg on the road this season and I expect a Pacers team that has not played since the 6th to be able to run and gun with them tonight. The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Indiana and 6-1 in the last 7 meetings overall. Plus, it is 10-1 in the Pacers last 11 vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Over.

3* SMASH on Rockets/Mavs OVER 199
Both of these teams prefer to run and gun and with Josh Howard back in the lineup for Dallas I expect the Mavs to be getting out in transition a whole lot more. In Howard's first game back, the Mavs exploded for 129 points. Houston has to run and gun to compete without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady. The Rockets have gone over the number in 5 straight games. The Over is 6-0 in Mavericks last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game and 8-1 in Rockets last 9 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. We'll take the Over.

3* SMASH on Nuggets/Bulls UNDER 205
Plays under on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200, an excellent offensive team scoring 102 or more ppg against an average defensive team allowing 92-98 ppg, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 26-5 the last 5 seasons for an 83.9% win rate. When the road team is off a blowout loss of 20 points or more, the system is 23-4 under since 1996 for an 85.2% win rate. Bet the Under.

4* Major NBA "Total" Annihilator on Wizards/Heat UNDER 186
Washington and Miami just played back on November 4th and we only saw 182 points scored in that game. I expect another low scoring affair tonight. Together, these teams are 11-2 to the under this season and this matchup has been an unders machine with 7 of 9 meetings going under the last 3 seasons, including all 4 meetings in Miami. The Heat have held 4 of their 6 opponents under 90 points and one has to expect another stingy defensive effort having not played a game since the 6th. That's a lot of time to rest and prepare. Washington has scored 90 or fewer points in 5 of 7 games this season as its offense continues to struggle without Jamison. Mike Miller is out tonight (taking away 3-point shooting) and Gilbert Arenas is not at 100%. The Under is 5-0 in Wizards last 5 games as an underdog, 4-0 in Wizards last 4 overall, and 4-0 in Wizards last 4 road games. The Under is 7-0 in Heat last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game, 4-0 in Heat last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 5-0 in Heat last 5 overall. Take the Under.

3* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Clippers +2
The Clippers are ready for this one. They have won 3 in a row and they will be hungry to end a 9-game skid against a struggling Hornets team that just got worked by the Lakers last night. The key here is that New Orleans' defense has stunk this season while the Clippers have scored the ball well. This plays right into our hands as New Orleans is on a 13-32 ATS slide versus good offensive teams scoring 99+ points/game since the beginning of last season. The Hornets are also just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games. Take the Clippers.

3* SMASH on Jazz -5.5
Utah is clearly the better team, and while it has had its road woes in recent years, I look for the Jazz to get it done convincingly tonight. NY has lost by 9 or more points in 3 straight games. The Knicks don't match up well with the Jazz and they are lacking star power big time. Utah's effort was called into question last game by head coach Jerry Sloan when it lost to lowly Sacramento. Expect an inspired effort by the Jazz to result in a win and cover tonight. Plays against home teams after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games against an opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games, are 24-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take Utah.

5* Friday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Bucks/T-Wolves UNDER 189
We've had good success with totals line movers the past two nights and I expect that success to continue here. This line opened at 185 but has been bet up to where we see it now, creating excellent value on the Under, especially since I already liked the Under at the opening number. Milwaukee is having all kinds of trouble with offensive chemistry right now with star shooting guard Michael Redd out. In 2 road games this season, the Bucks haven't topped 86 points. Minnesota has struggled to score the rock as well as it tries to adjust to life in the Triangle Offense. It has not exceeded 95 points at home this season and has scored 90 or fewer points in 3 of 5 games. Together these teams are 7-1 to the Under this season, Minnesota is 13-3 Under in its last 16 home games and 7-0 in its 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. Take the Under.

3* SMASH on Nuggets/Heat UNDER 201.5
The Nuggets have been posting high point totals but I expect that to end tonight as they find themselves in Miami where the Heat have played to the Under in 4 straight. Miami prefers to play in the half court and I look for it to control the tempo on its home floor tonight. Defensively, both of these teams have been solid with Miami allowing only 94.7 ppg at home and Denver giving up only 93.7 ppg on the road. Miami just plays solid, fundamental defense, not creating a lot of turnovers. And that is crucial here as we don't expect many points off of turnover to send this one over as a result. In fact, MIAMI is 18-4 Under after 4 straight games forcing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The average total score in these games is 180.2 points. Plus, the Under is 20-6 in the Nuggets last 26 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the Under.

3* SMASH on Wizards +1.5
Look for Washington to bounce back from back-to-back losses against a short-handed Pacers squad tonight. The Pacers will be without Mike Dunleavy and Jeff Foster, and leading rebounder Troy Murphy and reserve guard Travis Diener is expected to miss as well. The Pacers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. Look for Agent 0, Gilbert Arenas, to will the Wiz to victory tonight.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Spurs +1
The Jazz are off to a slow 1-3 start. While that may be a surprise to some, consider that two key players are out, Kyle Korver and Matt Harpring. Few players in the entire league shoot the 3 like Korver and they are missing his ability to knock down big shots right now. Harpring is a key guy in Utah's second group, especially on the defensive end. The big key here is that San Antonio is healthy with even more depth than it has had in the past with the main addition of Richard Jefferson. The Spurs have also not played since Halloween so Pop will have them very prepared and they will be very fresh for this one. The Spurs have had Utah's number, winning four straight and 29 of the 35 against. San Antonio has also covered the number in all 4 of those consecutive wins. Lastly, the Jazz are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games. I'll grab the Spurs tonight.

3* Bulls/Cavs NBA on TNT "Total" Dominator on Bulls/Cavs UNDER 191.5
The Bulls have played to the Under in 2 straight and the Cavs have played to the Under in 4 straight. The fact that both of these teams have been Unders clubs early on correlates to Chicago being without key scorer Ben Gordan and the Cavs adjusting to a slower pace with Shaq. This line opened at 186.5 and has been bet up to where we see it now. This movement has created value on the Under. This is a similar scenario to what happened last night in the Suns/Magic game. The total opened at 224 and was been bet down all the way to 217.5 and we cashed in on the Over as the teams combined for 222 points. Since being embarrassed at Toronto, Cleveland

3* SMASH on Lakers -1.5
I played against the Lakers for a win last night but I'll back them this evening. Yes, the Lakers are yet cover the spread this season, but they'll be ready to go here. They were nearly caught looking ahead to this game last night. They got the win and now they will be ready for the game they've been anticipating. Without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady, and with Ron Artest now on the Lakers, I just don't think Houston has the fire power to get the job done against an experienced Lakers team. The Lakers are an impressive 15-4 ATS when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 105.8 to 98.1. Plus, the Lakers are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings with Houston. Lay the points.

4* Major on Celtics/T-Wolves UNDER 186
With as good as Boston is defensively and with as anemic as Minnesota has been offensively, I can't see this one making its way over the total. Boston is on a 16-4 UNDER run after a huge blowout win by 30 or more with the average point total coming in at 182.7. 3 of 4 have gone UNDER in this matchup the last 2 seasons, including both at Minnesota. With Boston having just played last night, I expect Doc to play his key guys as conservatively as he can and still win as the Celtics have a track meet with Phoenix up next. Take the Under.

5* Wednesday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Suns/Magic OVER 217.5
This total opened at 224 and has been bet down all the way to 217.5. We'll gladly get in on the OVER now as it is showing good value with the line move. The fact that the books set such a high number after seeing the Magic and the Suns both post their lowest point totals of the season tells me the books are expecting a shootout. Orlando will be hungry after last night's embarrassing effort and the Suns will be hungry all season to pay teams back after a rough 2008-09 season. This is the first time each team has played back to back this season so I don't see tired legs as an issue, especially this early in the year. Also, when teams do play back to back, it's usually the defensive end that suffers more and that plays right into our hands. The OVER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in this series and we'll pound it here.

3* SMASH on Mavs -5.5
I'll take the well-rested Mavs at home against a Jazz team that just played last night. Utah is 5-16 ATS when playing on back-to-back over the last 2 seasons while the Mavericks are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. The Jazz are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog and an awful 0-11 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Lastly, the home team is on a 21-5-1 ATS run in the last 27 meetings. Lay the points.

3* SMASH on Bulls -9
I can't see the Bucks keeping this one within the number on the road tonight against a hungry Bulls team without go-to guy Michael Redd, who is expected to be out at least two weeks with a strained left knee tendon. Chicago has dropped 2 straight on the road since opening with a home win over San Antonio and I expect the Bulls to get back in the win column in a big way tonight. The last 2 times the Bucks have visited the Windy City, the Bulls have posted wins of 13 and 15 points and I expect a similar result tonight. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Lay the points.

3* SMASH on Oklahoma City Thunder +8
Pau Gasol still isn't back for the Lakers and they still haven't covered a spread this season. LA as public a team as there is in the NBA and the books are looking to take advantage of that in the early going. Don't expect the Lakers to be hitting on all cylinders tonight as they hit the road for the first time this season. Plus, one has to think LA will be more interested in tomorrow night's game against a Rockets team that gave them so much trouble in last year's playoffs. The Thunder fell flat against Portland after starting the season 2-0 and I expect much better from them tonight, especially with the champs in town as everyone wants to give the champs their best shot. The Thunder are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5 points while the Lakers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the points.

3* NBA "Total" Blowout on Nets/Bobcats OVER 175
Plays over on any team (Nets) off a road loss, against an opponent off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points, are 80-38 the last 5 seasons. Basically, this system tells us that odds makers overreact with the line in these situations and I believe that's exactly what they have done here. New Jersey is also 13-3 OVER after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons, with the average combined total score coming in at 206.5 in these games. Take the over.

3* Sunday Night NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Hawks +7
We faded the Lakers for a big win with our last NBA bailout and we'll do it again here. The Lakers are struggling offensively in the early going without Pau Gasol while the Hawks are off to a 2-0 start and ready to add their name to the contender map by knocking off the defending champs. The Lakers are a huge public play in a bounce back spot, just as the books knew they would be, and that is why odds makers have inflated this line, giving themselves a cushion. The Lakers are on a 4-16 ATS slide off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more and Atlanta is 11-2 ATS off 2 or more consecutive home wins since the beginning of last season. Take the points.

3* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* (ESPN) on Mavs +9
The public is on the defending NBA champion Lakers tonight after watching Dallas lay an egg in its opener. The Lakers won their first game by 7 points over the Clippers but they did not cover the 11.5-point spread. The books love to take advantage of the public early in the season by overvaluing teams that the public perceives to be good. But we must keep in mind that Dallas has played LA as tough as anyone at Staples Center over the last few seasons, going 5-0 ATS in their last 5, never losing by more than 7 points. In all, the underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the road team is 7-0-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Plus, the Mavericks are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 2 days rest and 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a double digit loss at home. Take the points.

3* Friday Night Blowout on Jazz -8.5
Utah has been the Bermuda Triangle for a lot of teams (they just get lost there) so it comes as no surprise that the Clippers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Utah. Utah is perennially one of the best home teams in basketball and after opening the season with a road loss, I expect the Jazz to bounce back strong tonight. The Clippers are off back-to-back covers but that streak ends here as they are just 2-25 in Utah since 1996, losing by an average of 13 points in those games. Utah is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at home against the Clippers the last 4 seasons, winning by an average of 20 points. Lay the points.

4* Major Thursday NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Spurs -2.5
I'll take the hands down better team laying a small number against a young Bulls team tonight. The Spurs dominated the Chris Paul and the Hornets last night without the starters logging many minutes so I don't see tired legs being an issue for San Antonio here. I know Tony Parker took a hard fall last night but it appears that he is going to be okay. So all in all the Spurs are healthy and we saw what a healthy Spurs team is capable of last night. Now, they add more depth and talent with notable players Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess. These additions make the Spurs a title contender while I fear the Bulls could take a step back without go-to guy Ben Gordon. Where would they have been in the playoffs without him last season? Plus, star point guard Derrick Rose has an ankle injury that the Bulls are monitoring closely. The injury is expected to cut his playing time way down. Over the last 2 seasons, the Spurs are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS against the Bulls, winning all 4 games by at least 5 points with 3 of the wins coming by 10 points or more. Also, the Spurs are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Chicago. I'll lay the points.

3* SMASH on Knicks/Heat UNDER 207
Coach Mike D'Antoni quickly figured out that it's tough to win in the East without playing solid defense and that's why he has placed an emphasis on it this season. The result, only 193.5 total points per game in New York's preseason contests. Expect to see a better defensive effort from the Knicks tonight, one that this line does not reflect. Also, the under is 16-5 in the Knicks last 21 overall, 8-2 in the Knicks last 10 road games, and 7-3 in their last 10 meetings in Miami. Bet the Under.

3* SMASH on Pistons/Grizzlies OVER 190
I feel this line is representative of last year's Pistons and not the current team under new head coach John Kuester, who has installed a more uptempo philosophy. Veteran half-court, spot-up shooters like Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess are gone and young guys capable of playing in transition like Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva have arrived. With that said, losing the aforementioned vets does hurt the defense and that's why this is an attractive play tonight. Take the Over.

5* Wednesday Night NBA *BEST BET* on Bobcats +10.5
Big win for the Celtics last night has the public all over them, but after big wins often come letdowns and that's precisely what I think you'll see from Boston here. The Bobcats have played the Celtics tough as nails and the result has been lucrative. In fact, the Cats are 12-2 ATS in the last 14 meetings in this matchup and a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Boston. Plus, the Bobcats are an impressive 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 while the Celtics are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Doc Rivers played his starters longer than he wanted to last night, especially KG. Don't expect Boston to be up for the Bobcats the way they were for Lebron James and Shaq and expect Doc to give his vets a little more rest tonight, playing back-to-back early in the season as it is a long season. Take the points.

3* NBA Season Opening SMASH (TNT) on Celtics/Cavs UNDER 185
Expect a low-scoring defensive battle in Cleveland tonight as a healthy Celtics team once again figures to be among the finest defensive units in the league. Cleveland was an exceptional defensive team at home last season, allowing only 88.2 ppg so the Cavs know how to play defense as well. On top of the fact that we have two solid defensive teams here. The Cavs offense figures to struggle in the early going as they adjust to life with Shaquille O'Neal. Also, his presence in the lineup calls for a slower paced game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Cleveland. The under is also 9-3 in the Celtics' last 12 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Lastly, the Cavs are 33-13 under as a home fave of 3.5 to 6 points under coach Brown. Let's start off the season with a nice unders winner.