5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Lakers +3.5
The Thunder were dumbfounded after game 2 because, as head coach Scott Brooks put it, they played as well as they have played all season and still came away with a loss. What's even harder to swallow is the fact that the Lakers didn't even play close to their best. Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol had big nights, but Lamar Odom, Ron Artest, Derek Fisher and Andrew Bynum didn't show up. The supporting cast will play much better tonight. Plus, expect Artest to play much better defense against Durant after letting him go off for 32 points. The Thunder had nothing to lose when playing in L.A. as not many expected them to steal a game anyway. But now they are back home, down 0-2, and you can bet they'll be pressing tonight knowing they need this one to give themselves a chance. The Lakers don't want this series to drag out. They would really like to get the sweep so Kobe and some of the other banged up guys can get some extra rest and treatment before their second round series. With this in mind, the Lakers will be very hungry and focused on the task at hand. Plus, the last time the Lakers visited Oklahoma City, they were embarrassed. The Thunder held them to only 75 points in a 16-point defeat. That loss will only serve as extra motivation for L.A. to show up tonight. It's not often you can get the Lakers catching points, but they have been a solid bet when you can. The Lakers are 33-18 ATS as an underdog over the last 3 seasons and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog. Take the Lakers and the points.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Spurs +3.5
The Spurs aren't going to go down without a fight. Dallas has won a lot of games at home this season, but it has not won them by much. In fact, Dallas is just 11-29 ATS in home games this season, only winning by 2.3 points on average. Dallas is also just 3-11 ATS in a home game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season, only winning these games by 1.4 points on average. The Mavericks are only 7-27-1 ATS in their last 35 games as a home favorite and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. Lastly, the Spurs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Expect the Spurs to tighten the screws defensively and steal game 2. Take the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Bobcats +9
Because the Bobcats play such strong defense, we can expect them to be in this one right down to the wire. The Bobcats have played 3 games in Orlando this season, and all 3 have been decided by single digits with the Cats winning one of them. There are a lot of trends that support our side tonight. The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss, 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Orlando and the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Plus, the Magic are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite. These two teams know each other well and we can expect another tight contest because of it. Take the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Thunder +7
The Thunder played the Lakers to an 8-point game in Game 1 despite a very tough shooting night from Kevin Durant. Durant is far too talented to be held in check the same way in Game 2. Plus, the Lakers don't have an answer for Russell Westbrook. He has too much size and quickness for the aged Derek Fisher to handle. In Game 1, the Lakers jumped out big early as the young Thunder were feeling some first game jitters. But the Thunder won the last 3 quarters by 6 points. With the first game jitters now out of their system, and with Durant expected to play much better tonight, I expect the Thunder to take the Lakers right down to the wire. As usual, LA is a huge public play because of its extensive fan base. Odds makers know this and use it to their advantage. The Lakers are overvalued often, especially after a win. In fact, the Lakers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win. The Lakers are also just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite while the Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Thunder.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* on Celtics -1
No Kevin Garnett tonight, no problem. Boston won Game 1 despite Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen combining to go just 10 of 32 from the field. You can bet they won't shoot as poorly tonight, giving the Celtics more than enough offensive fire power to win without KG. Boston has had Miami's number, having won 6 in a row by 4 or more points. In fact, it is 11-1 against Miami the last 3 seasons, including a perfect 6-0 at home. Revenge has not been enough motivation for Miami to get the job done either. The Heat are just 6-19 ATS in road games when revenging 4 losses vs. an opponent in the last 2 years, losing in these spots by an average score of 85.6 to 95.7. The Heat are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog. The Celtics are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games. The favorite is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Look for the rest of the Celtics to rally in KG's absence to go up 2-0 tonight.

5* NBA Playoffs 1st Round Game of the Year on Jazz +7
I'll gladly take the generous amount of points here as I expect Game 2 to go right down to the wire with the Jazz having an excellent opportunity to win this one outright. I know Utah is now without Mehmet Okur in addition to Andrei Kirilenko, but Okur isn't a big loss on the defensive end, and that's where you'll see huge improvement from Utah tonight. The numbers don't lie: Utah is 16-4 ATS off a road loss this season, holding its opponents to just 99.3 points in these spots, 13-1 ATS after a road game where both teams scored 100 or more points this season, holding its opponents to just 94.8 points in these situations, 8-1 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more this season, only allowing 99.2 points in these spots and 17-5 ATS after allowing 105 points or more this season, clamping down to only give up 98.5 points in these spots. The Jazz are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points and 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. loss period. Utah is one of the very best bounce back teams in the NBA because of the way they up their intensity on defense following a loss, and I'll pound them in this bounce back spot tonight.

3* Game 2 SMASH (TNT) on Bulls +10.5
The Bulls were beaten in Game 1, but they gained a lot of confidence by clawing their way back from a 22-point deficit to cut the lead to just 7 points. A big key to keeping this one within the number tonight is keeping Cleveland off the offensive boards. The Cavs came up with 13 offensive boards, which led to easy baskets, in Saturday's win. Don't expect there to be such a large rebounding discrepancy tonight. The Bulls are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Cavaliers are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Bet the Bulls.

3* NBA Playoffs *Crunch Time Bailout* (ESPN) on Trail Blazers +8
The Blazers are without Brandon Roy, but I expect them to be in this game because of how solid they are on the defensive end. The fact that the total is only set at 204 tells me that odds makers feel the Blazers' defense will have an impact on this game as well. The Trail Blazers are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog. The Blazers are also 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. The Blazers are only allowing 96 ppg on the road this season. I look for this suffocating "D" to help the Blazers keep this one within the number.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* Blowout on Lakers -7.5
Look for the Lakers to send a message to the Thunder with a blowout win in Game 1. These two teams last faced off March 26th and the Lakers were crushed 75-91. That loss will serve as a motivator today. In fact, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a loss where they scored less than 85 points, off an upset loss of 10 points or more as a road favorite, are 22-4 ATS since 1996, including 9-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. And teams in this situation are winning by 13.1 points on average. The playoffs are a different animal, something the experienced Lakers will be ready for and the youthful Thunder will not. Lay the points.

5* NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* Blowout on Hawks -8.5
Atlanta has gained some nice playoff experience the last couple years, and now it's ready to make a serious run at the Eastern Conference title. Last year's exit, an ugly 4-game sweep at the hand of Cleveland, will be the driving force this time around. Milwaukee is at a big disadvantage in the talent and depth department with starting center Andrew Bogut going down. The Hawks certainly have the athletes to really take advantage of his absence. The youth of Brandon Jennings will show in this series as well. The youngster is no doubt talented, but he still has a lot to learn about shot selection and running a team. The favorite is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Bucks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog. The Hawks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Lay the points.

3* SMASH on Cavs -11
The Bulls did well to make the playoffs, but this is a team primed for an early exit. Chicago is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA, and that will make them very easy to guard. The Cavs can really pack it in to stop penetration because the Bulls really don't have anybody that can stretch the floor consistently. We saw the Cavs dominate in the early rounds against lesser opponents in last year's playoffs and I expect no different this time around. The Cavaliers are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite of 11.0 or more points. The Cavaliers are also 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 playoff games as a favorite. The Bulls are just 3-10 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Cleveland. Take the Cavs.

3* NBA Regular Season Finale *BEST BET* on Wizards +2
Indiana has played well down the stretch, but motivation will likely be a big issue tonight. The Pacers have been eliminated from the playoffs, and they have already defeated the Wizards 3 times this season. Washington, meanwhile, should be motivated as it looks to avoid the season sweep. We'll gladly take the points here when you consider that the Wizards lost by just 1 in this season's only other home meeting with the Pacers. It is certainly worth noting that the home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. It is also worth noting that Washington is on a 17-5 ATS run in home games after having lost 20 or more of their last 25 games, winning in these spots by an average score of 99.3 to 95.7. Indiana is a terrible 9-31 on the road this season, and I expect their road struggles to continue in this season finale.

3* NBA on TNT *Crunch Time Bailout* on Nuggets +6.5
A win clinches the Northwest Division title and ties a franchise high in wins for Denver. It also secures the Nuggets at least the No. 3 spot so there is plenty to play for in their season finale. Phoenix has won the last 2 in this series by double digits so the Nuggets would love to pay the Suns back here as well. The Nuggets are 5-1-3 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Denver is also is 16-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by an average score of 103.9 to 100.9. Take Denver and the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Bulls -5.5
If the Bulls win out, they are in the playoffs. Boston's playoff fate has already been sealed as Atlanta's win over the Bucks Monday night inked the team into the No. 4 seed. So there's really nothing for the Celtics to play for tonight while the Bulls have everything to play for. I expect Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce both to play limited minutes, if at all, as Boston gears up for the postseason. The Bulls are an impressive 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a win of more than 10 points and 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games following an ATS win. Meanwhile, the Celtics are just 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a win of more than 10 points, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following am ATS win. Bet the Bulls.

5* Monday NBA *BEST BET* on Thunder +2
If the Thunder have any hope of avoiding the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs, they need to win tonight. As if this isn't enough motivation, the Thunder lost to the lowly Warriors Sunday. Besides motivation, OKC catches a big break with Brandon Roy not expected to play tonight. This also has the look of a letdown spot for Portland after such an emotional win over the Lakers Sunday. OKC is a tremendous 25-7 ATS after a game where it failed to cover the spread this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 104.4 to 97.7. The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog period. The Trail Blazers are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the Thunder.

3* SMASH on Raptors +1
Plain and simple, the Raptors must win or they will be eliminated from the playoffs. I know they have struggled without Bosh, but playing to keep their playoff hopes alive against the lowly Pistons should be enough to will them to victory here. The Pistons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 4.5 or fewer points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Toronto has had Detroit's number with 3 wins against the Pistons already this season, and I look for the Raptors to make it a clean sweep. Take the Raptors.

5* Sunday NBA *BEST BET* (ABC) on Blazers +4 (line of -2 in system was an error) With home court in the Western Conference already wrapped up, the Lakers can afford to continue to rest Kobe Bryant. If he does play, it won't be big minutes. This game means a lot more to the Blazers as they want to keep winning to avoid the No. 8 spot and the Lakers in the first round of the playoffs. The Lakers would like to avoid Portland in the playoffs too as they have lost 9 of their last 10 at the Rose Garden. The Lakers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win. Pound Portland.

5* 2010 NBA Game of the Year on Celtics +2
I went against the Celtics last night with the 11.5-point underdog Wizards, who handed Bean Town a 10 point loss. The Celtics trailed by as many as 28 points. This is a veteran team with 3 Hall of Famers, and it was incredibly embarrassed last night. Look for the Celtics to save face by responding in a big way in Milwaukee. Boston should be further motivated by a 2-point defeat it suffered in Milwaukee last month. Motivation is a big part of this play, but the other big part has to do with the interior matchups. The Bucks are without arguably their best player, Andrew Bogut, and that opens things up for Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins to both have their way down low. I just can't see the Bucks overcoming the loss of Bogut in this game when you consider that he is averaging 25.0 points and 15.5 rebounds against the Celtics this season. He had 25 points and 17 rebounds in Milwaukee's 86-84 victory March 9. That's a lot of points and rebounds to make up for and I just don't see it getting done. While Boston is a veteran team, it has actually been quite successful when playing without any rest. In fact, the Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on zero days rest. This team has been a cash cow in the road dog role too. The Celtics are 52-25-2 ATS in their last 79 games as a road underdog and 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Look for Boston to make a statement with a big win tonight.

5* Friday NBA *BEST BET* on Mavericks +4
Portland is playing well, but I give the edge to the Mavs in this highly motivated spot tonight. With a win, and a Spurs loss, the Mavs can clinch the Southwest Division. Plus, they are still battling for the No. 2 seed in the West. In addition, the Mavs have lost all 3 prior meetings to the Blazers this season so they will be very hungry to pay Portland back. The underdog has dominated this matchup. In fact, the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Trail Blazers are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. We'll take the Mavs and the points.

3* Friday Night NBA SMASH on Wizards +11.5
After getting embarrassed by Orlando Wednesday, look for the Wizards to bounce back strong and take Boston down to the wire tonight. The last 4 meetings in this series have been decided by 11 or fewer points with 2 of those being decided by 3 or less. Plus, Boston is only winning by an average of 4.1 points at home this season. The Celtics are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater. I'll go one step further. Boston is 4-17 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season, only winning in these spots by 7.9 points on average. The total odds makers have set tells us they are expecting a rather low scoring game. This bodes well for us also as Boston is just 6-16 ATS in home games where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season. The Wizards are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the points.

5* NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Lakers +2
This is a tough spot for Denver playing back-to-back against a well-rested Lakers team that will be hungry after getting absolutely embarrassed by the Spurs Sunday. Any time you catch the Lakers in the underdog role, they are worth a look. In fact, they are 29-14-2 ATS in their last 45 games as a road underdog. Furthermore, the Lakers are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 10 points. In other words, this is a team that typically responds well. The Nuggets have been a fool's gold favorite as they are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Plus, they are only 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games playing on zero day's rest. With the Nuggets being a team the Lakers could end up seeing in the playoffs again, look for LA to send a message that it is clearly the best in the West tonight.

5* ESPN Game of the Year on Suns -6.5
The Spurs were lucky to come away with a win in Sacramento last night, but they will have no such luck on their side tonight. Tony Parker was cleared to play a bit sooner than expected, but he is not expected to play big minutes. This proves crucial here since George Hill is out injured. Without an experienced point guard to help the Spurs control the flow of the game, there will be nothing standing in the way of a rested Suns team making this one a track meet. This veteran Spurs team has struggled in back-to-backs to begin with and will certainly have its work cut out for itself against the most potent offensive team in the NBA. You have to love the fact that history is strongly on our side. Here's what I mean: plays against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points playing on back-to-back days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are an impressive 71-32 ATS the last 5 seasons. The Spurs have played a lot of games in few days while the Suns haven't played since Saturday and this should catch up with San Antonio here. Plus, Phoenix is 15-3 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game, in the 2nd half of the season this season, winning in these spots by 10.1 points on average. The Suns are also an unbeaten 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Pound the Suns.

3* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Nets +8
Odds makers have made the mistake of overvaluing the Bucks tonight. I expect the Bucks to come out flat after clinching a playoff spot with a win over the Bulls last night. New Jersey is playing its best basketball of the season, having won 4 of its last 7 games, and it will have a big advantage on the interior tonight. The Bulls aren't a team that gets much interior scoring so Milwaukee did not miss Andrew Bogut as much in last night's game. They will tonight. Nets center Brook Lopez leads the team in scoring and he should be poised for a big game without Bogut inside for Milwaukee. The Nets haven't played since Sunday so they will be fresh. Plus, they should be very hungry to pay back a team that has embarrassed them 3 times this season. Odds makers have made a habit out of overvaluing opponents that the Nets have played lately. As a result, the Nets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Plus, the Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the points with the Nets here.

5* Never Lost Tuesday NBA *BEST BET* on Kings +6.5
The San Antonio Spurs were already playing without All-Star point guard Tony Parker. Now, they'll be playing without his replacement tonight. George Hill is expected to miss at least two games. He has averaged 15.8 points in 41 games as a starter this season. Now Manu Ginobli is really the only guy San Antonio has that can create for himself and others, and this has coach Popovich worried. "I'm a little worried about everything that's coming up now without George," coach Popovich said. "It's going to be difficult to ... have Manu (Ginobili) play the point in all these games coming up. We'll have to figure something out." It's likely they won't have that "something" figured out tonight. Plus, after a huge win over the Lakers to secure a playoff spot, this one has letdown written all over it. Kings Rookie of the Year candidate Tyreke Evans is coming off one of his worst performances, shooting just 2 of 12 and finishing with six points. Expect a big bounce back game from him tonight. San Antonio is 0-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 88.5 to 96.8. The Kings have either won, or lost by 3 or fewer points in their last 5 home games against the Spurs. We'll take the points tonight.

4* Major NBA Motivational Mismatch on Jazz -5.5
I'll back the Jazz in an extremely motivated spot tonight. Utah is well rested, and it will be out for blood after enduring an embarrassing loss to the Lakers Friday night. Furthermore, the Jazz are 0-3 against the Thunder this season so they are going to want this one badly. Here's the key: Plays on home favorites in a triple revenge situation - 3 straight losses vs. an opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 75-36 ATS since 1996, including a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. The team out for revenge is winning by 7.6 points on average in these spots so I think we are getting some decent value with this line. The Jazz are the best bounce back team in the NBA at 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games following a S.U. loss. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss of more than 10 points. Bet Utah tonight.

3* SMASH on Raptors +7
The Cavs have nothing to play for at this point with home court already locked up throughout the playoffs. Now, it's time to decrease the minutes of the starters to make sure they enter the playoffs fresh. This bodes well for the Raptors tonight as they will be extremely motivated to win with the Bulls right on their tail for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East. The Raptors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the points.

5* National Championship Game *BEST BET* on Duke -7.5
There is no question that Butler is a very, very good basketball team. I wouldn't have taken them against Michigan State in the Final Four if I didn't think so. But that game pointed out Butler's biggest weakness, it's offense. The Bulldogs have endured some lengthy scoring droughts and I foresee more of those tonight against a very good defensive team. Gordon Hayward started out very aggressive against Michigan State in the first half, but then he wasn't looking for his shot much in the second. He is a phenomenal talent, but he is not a selfish player. He lacks that killer instinct that the best scorers have. Because Butler is getting nothing from their inside game with Matt Howard, they will rely on Hayward more than ever tonight, and I just don't think he'll be enough. Duke has a lot more offensive fire power with its big 3 of Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith. Defensively Duke has been superb as well, and it has dominated the glass. This is another huge area of concern for the Bulldogs. They aren't a great rebounding team. We can count on Duke cleaning up the glass, and that means that the Bulldogs won't get a lot of second chance points. In other words, Butler is going to have to shoot a very high percentage to cover this number, and I just don't see it happening. Consider that Duke is a strong 12-5 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 64 or less points per game this season, beating these teams by an average score of 71.8 to 59.7. Duke is also 9-1 ATS after a game committing 8 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The Blue Devils are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and I'll take them in that role tonight.

5* Sunday NBA *BEST BET* on T-Wolves +12
This is a big letdown spot for OKC after such a big win over the Mavs last night to clinch a playoff spot. Plus, the T-Wolves will be extremely motivated after getting crushed by OKC by 17 points the last time these two teams faced off. That lopsided affair was certainly out of the ordinary as Minnesota had either won or lost by 7 or fewer points in the 8 previous meetings. Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points revenging a road loss vs. an opponent, with a losing record, are 104-56 ATS the last 5 seasons, including 7-3 ATS this season. Plus, Minnesota is 20-8 ATS in road games when revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, only losing in these spots by 7.3 points on average. Lastly, the Timberwolves are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. We

3* NBA Marquee Matchup (ABC) on Spurs +6
The Lakers just defeated the Spurs in San Antonio by 9 points on March 24th so the Spurs will be out for revenge here. San Antonio has been playing really good basketball and will not be lacking any confidence after crushing the Magic by double digits. The Spurs seem to feed off of strong performances. In fact, they are 14-5 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 103.4 to 94.8. In addition, the Lakers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win, 0-2-2 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, 8-0 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. The Spurs are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog while the Lakers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite. We

5* Final Four *BEST BET* on Duke -2
If West Virginia, a team that normally shoots only 33.6% from three-point range, doesn't go off from deep against Kentucky, finishing 10 of 23 from beyond the arc, and if Kentucky doesn't shoot just 4 of 32 from deep, there's a good chance the Mountaineers aren't in the Final Four. The thing to note is that Kentucky had a lot of wide open looks it just missed. What was even more unlikely was that Joe Mazzula was the best player on the floor for much of that game. Duke beat Baylor by 7 points despite only shooting 36.1% from the field so it has proven that it can win without shooting the ball well, something that couldn't be said about last year's Blue Devils. I'm willing to bet WVU won't shoot the lights out from 3 again, that Duke won't go 4 of 32 like Kentucky did and that Mazzula won't have the kind of game he did in the Elite 8. WVU also benefited from 16 Kentucky turnovers. Duke just doesn't turn the ball over. That means bad news for the Mountaineers as they are just 1-7 ATS versus excellent ball handling teams committing 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season. Plus, Coach K has been here and done this 11 times now. Huggins only 1 other time. I'll go large with Duke Saturday. Best of Luck.

3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Mavs -3
The Mavericks have won nine straight in the series at home by an average of 11.7 points, and I look for this domination to continue tonight. The Mavs are coming off an embarrassing home blowout loss to the Magic, and the Thunder beat them convincingly by 13 points the last time these teams faced off. Those two losses should serve as plenty of motivation tonight. In fact, the Mavericks are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Mavericks are also a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. I'll lay the points with the Mavs here.

3* Final Four SMASH on Butler -1
If Butler can beat Syracuse and Kansas State, it can certainly take care of a Michigan State team playing without its best player. Butler is very experienced and very disciplined on both ends of the floor. Defensively, the Bulldogs have held each of their 4 NCAA tourney opponents under 60 points. Offensively, the Bulldogs take good care of the basketball and they rarely take a bad shot. Playing smart, disciplined basketball has gotten the Bulldogs here, and I believe it will take them into the championship game. With this game taking place so close to Butler's campus, the Bulldogs will have the crowd on their side, and that can be huge in a game like this, which figures to be a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair. Butler has won 24 straight games, proving how successful its brand of basketball can be. Izzo is a great motivator, but I just can't see him sneaking past yet another opponent without Kalin Lucas. He's going to miss his most clutch performer in this game. Brad Stevens has made his boys believe. The Bulldogs are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Big Ten and I look for this trend to continue.

3* NBA *Crunch Time Bailout* on Lakers -4
This game reminds me a lot of last night's situation with the Nuggets and the Blazers. We played on the Nuggets -5 at home against the red hot Blazers even though the Nuggets had been struggling on the road, and it paid off. Enough was enough. The Nuggets fed off the energy of their home crowd and made a statement with a blowout win. I look for LA to do the same tonight against a Jazz team they have defeated 13 straight times at home. Kobe is fed up with how the team has been playing and I expect him to put them on his back this evening. The Jazz are just 3-10 ATS in the last 13 road meetings with the Lakers. The Lakers are 32-5 at home where they are winning by 9.4 ppg. Off an embarrassing loss to the Hawks, look for them to respond here.

5* NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year on Hawks +5.5
The Hawks are extremely confident heading into this one after a convincing win over the Lakers. After getting punished in the playoffs by Cleveland last season, the Hawks have played the Cavs tough in two meetings this season but they have come up short in each. Look for the third time to be the charm for the Hawks tonight. The Cavs have struggled without Anderson Varejao, who won't be at full strength if he does go tonight. He is their energy guy and they have looked lethargic at times in each of their last two games without him in the lineup. Atlanta has played up to the level of its competition this season. In fact, it is 11-2 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) this season, defeating these teams by an average score of 96.7 to 91.2. The Hawks are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Cavaliers are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the Hawks and the points tonight.

5* Wiseguy NBA on TNT Game of the Month on Nuggets -5
It's gut check time for the Nuggets tonight. They return home after a 5-game road trip where they were brutal and I fully expect them to make a statement. The Nuggets are 30-6 at home on the season where they are winning by 9.4 points on average. The home team has dominated this matchup to the tune of 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Plus, the Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Denver and 10-25-1 ATS in the last 36 meetings overall. The Nuggets are 52-25-3 ATS in their last 80 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points, 38-15-2 ATS in their last 55 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Lay the points.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Magic -1
I'll take the rested Magic in this revenge spot against a Mavs team feeling the effects of a tough overtime game in Memphis last night. After losing to the Mavs at home in the last meeting, the Magic will be ready to return the favor here. The Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Mavericks are an atrocious 5-23 ATS in their last 28 Thursday games and a pathetic 5-26-1 ATS in their last 32 home games. The road team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the Magic are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Dallas. Take Orlando.

3* NIT Championship SMASH (ESPN) on Dayton -2.5
The Flyers are the more experienced team and that is huge this time of year. They are also the better defensive team, and playing solid defense is another must if you're going to win any type of championship. It is certainly worth noting that UNC is only 1-7 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing 64 or less points per game after, 15+ games this season, losing to these teams by an average score of 62 to 72.9. When odds makers have put Carolina in the underdog role, it's usually for a reason as the Heels command so much betting attention. In fact, the Tar Heels are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog and only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. In addition, the Flyers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. Dayton has taken this tournament very seriously and I look for its experience and defense to be the difference.

4* Major CBI Cash Cow on Saint Louis +1.5
Saint Louis has been incredible on its home floor this season. The Billikens are 18-3 SU and 11-4 ATS in home line games. The defense has been absolutely dominant as the Billikens are holding their opponents to just 57.5 points per game on their home floor. After losing Game 1 of the CBI Championship Series, I look for Saint Louis to bounce back strong on its home floor tonight. Saint Louis is a near-perfect 7-1 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season, winning these games by an average score of 66.8 to 59.8. Over the last 3 seasons, the Billikens are an outstanding 14-4 ATS in home games versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 4 or more points per game over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 64.1 to 60.3. There's no way that Saint Louis should be the underdog on its home floor tonight. Bet the Billikens.

3* NBA Motivational Mismatch on Celtics -3
Even though Paul Pierce is questionable tonight, I still think the Celtics will be motivated enough to get the job done in this spot regardless if he plays. The good news is that Boston will get Kendrick Perkins back. Boston just endured one of its worst defeats of the season at the hands of San Antonio Sunday. The Spurs held the Celtics to a season low 73 points in that contest. If that doesn't get Boston motivated, nothing will. I firmly believe the Celtics will show up ready to put a hurtin' on the Thunder tonight. OKC just played last night so Boston will certainly have the advantage in terms of fresh legs. It is worth noting that the Thunder are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on 0 days rest. The Thunder have dropped 4 in a row ATS in this series and are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 trips to Boston. Also, plays on home teams off an upset loss by 15 points or more, playing with 2 days rest, are 27-6 ATS the last 5 seasons, including 18-3 ATS the last 3 seasons. Teams in this situation are winning by 9.6 points on average. Take Boston.

4* Major NBA Blowout of the Week on Raptors -9.5
The Clippers are ready to call it a season. They have reduced the minutes of All-Star Chris Kaman to open up playing time for some of the younger guys. Plus, Baron Davis is expected to miss the next two games with back spasms. Once Camby was traded away, it sent a message to the team that management was already planning ahead for next season. As a result, the Clippers have lost 12 of their last 14 games, and 10 of those losses have come by 10 or more points. The Raptors will be the more motivated team this evening as they look to distance themselves from the Bulls in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Even at full strength, the Raptors are a team that the Clippers have really struggled against. Toronto has won the last 3 meetings by scores of 97-75, 100-76 and 104-89. The Clippers are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest. The Clippers are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings and 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Toronto. Take the Raptors.

3* Tuesday Night NBA SMASH on Bulls +3.5
The Bulls have had Phoenix's number. Why? Because the young athletic Derrick Rose has been a nightmare matchup for Steve Nash. In 3 straight double digits wins over the Suns, with 2 of those even coming in Phoenix, Rose has held Nash to just 9.7 points and 7.3 assists while forcing him into an average of 5.0 turnovers. The Bulls will be extremely motivated tonight as they are battling the Raptors for the final playoff spot in the East. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. They are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. With Nash facing a tough matchup, and not at 100 percent, I look for the Bulls, who are fighting for the playoffs, to get the job done tonight.

5* NIT Game of the Year on Ole Miss +1.5
Dayton is a good ball club, but I really believe Ole Miss is the better team from the better conference. I give the Rebels a big edge here because this game is being played on a neutral court. Ole Miss has been the better team when playing away from home this season. Dayton is 7-10 SU and 7-9-1 ATS when playing away from home this season. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is 8-6 SU and 10-4 ATS when playing away from home this season. Dayton has struggled with teams that can really score the basketball, losing 2 of 3 to Xavier this season because it lacked that little extra offensive punch. Well, Ole Miss can certainly score it. The Rebels average 8.7 more ppg than the Flyers do. We find ourselves in a unique, highly profitable situation tonight as the Rebels are an impressive 14-4 ATS after allowing 75 or more points in consecutive games under coach Kennedy, winning these games by an average score of 77.1 to 69.5. The Rebs are also on a 31-15 ATS run after scoring 80 points or more in a game under coach Kennedy, winning these games by an average score of 79.4 to 72.0. We also can't overlook the fact that Dayton is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 neutral site games and just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 neutral site contests as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Rebels are an impressive 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog. I feel strongly enough that Ole Miss will win this one outright that I have made it my strongest play in the NIT this season. Best of Luck.

3* Monday NBA *Underdog Shocker* on Nets +8.5
This is a huge letdown spot for the Spurs after a pair of big time wins over Cleveland and Boston. In fact, San Antonio is 0-7 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season, actually losing in these spots by an average score of 89.1 to 97.7. The Spurs are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. The Nets need one victory in their final nine games to avoid matching the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers for the worst record in NBA history so I expect them to really play hard tonight, especially after such a poor performance Saturday. I would not be surprised if New Jersey wins this one outright so we'll take the points.

3* CBI Tourney SMASH on Saint Louis +9
The knock on Saint Louis earlier this season was that it wasn't a very good away from home. This certainly changed as the season went on as the Billikens won their last 4 true road games. Because Saint Louis plays such solid defense, it has lost by 9 or fewer points in 9 of 10 true road games this season. Saint Louis is all about defense and slowing down the tempo on offense. As a result, St. Louis is a perfect 10-0 ATS after 3 straight games where it and its opponent have scored 70 points or less this season, actually winning in these spots by an average score of 67.6 to 62.1. The Billikens are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. VCU is a good home team, but it will see a defense unlike it has seen in a long time tonight. Take the points.

3* NBA Crunch Time Bailout on LA Clippers -5
It was already going to be difficult for the Warriors to play this back-to-back against a rested Clippers squad, but it will likely be even more difficult as Monte Ellis is listed as doubtful. Plus, this one is personal for the Clippers, who were embarrassed by 30 points the last time these teams faced off last month. The Warriors haven't had a lot of luck in the southern part of California. In fact, they are only 2-7-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Los Angeles against the Clippers. And the Clippers have proven that they are worthy to lay points at home as they are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. Golden State is 4-30 on the road this season where it is losing by 9.3 points on average. Plus, plays on any team revenging a road blowout loss of 30 points or more, well rested team playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, are 29-13 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Clippers.

5* Elite 8 *BEST BET* on Baylor +5
We saw Baylor feed off of the crowd in Friday's impressive win over Saint Mary's as many Baylor fans made the trip to Houston. I expect the crowd to play a big factor in this one as well. Duke was able to get past Purdue because it dominated the boards, but it won't have the same success against a Baylor squad that is very long and very athletic up front. Duke has proven to be fade material in the tournament when in the small chalk. In fact, the Blue Devils are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. In addition, Baylor is 8-2 ATS when playing top caliber teams who outscore their opponents by 12 or more points per game this season. Baylor is actually defeating these teams 7.5 points on average. Baylor matches up with Duke very well. In fact, Duke is going to have a tougher time matching up with Baylor. We saw Duke struggle a couple times this season against a big Georgia Tech team. It is also worth noting that Baylor shoots the 3 a lot better than Duke. The Bears have shot it as a 40.9% clip outside their home gym while Duke has only shot it at 34.3%. Take Baylor and the points.

4* Major Elite 8 Early Annihilator on Tennessee -1.5
The Spartans were able to survive Northern Iowa without Kalin Lucas because the Panthers are a defensive team that packs it in. The absence of Lucas will be felt much more strongly in this one as Tennessee likes to pressure its opponents all over the floor. If Tennessee can beat Evan Turner and Ohio State, it can take care of a Michigan State squad minus its best player. The Vols are long and athletic and very active on the offensive glass. I just can't see Tennessee going down here unless it shoots an absurdly low field goal percentage. The Volunteers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Big Ten, 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Right now, Tennessee is the better team, and I'll take that team laying a small number this afternoon.

3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Hornets +3
There is usually plenty of energy in the arena on Saturday nights and the Hornets are a team that feeds off that energy. In fact, New Orleans is on a 29-14 ATS tear in Saturday home games. It is also worth noting that the Hornets are 55-27-3 ATS in their last 85 Saturday games period. New Orleans is perennially a good home team. It is usually rare to find the Hornets catching points on their home floor, but they have been money in the bank when they do. They are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The Hornets are also an outstanding 25-8 ATS in their last 33 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. We'll take the Hornets in the home dog role tonight.

3* Elite 8 Perfect Angle Power Play on West Virginia +4.5
Kentucky has looked unstoppable in this tournament, but it hasn't faced a defense like West Virginia's yet. The Mountaineers have held 6 straight opponents under 60 points, and they have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to under 40% shooting. This defensive run is rather significant when you consider that WVU is a perfect 6-0 ATS after allowing 60 points or less 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Kentucky just held Cornell to 45 points, but it is on a 0-8 ATS after slide allowing 50 points or less. WVU is on a 21-4 ATS run in post-season tournament games and on a 15-2 ATS run in NCAA tournament games, including 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. With as good as West Virginia is defensively, they have what it takes to pull off the upset. I'll take the points in a game that should go right down to the wire.

5* Elite 8 Game of the Year on K-State -4
Butler is a really good team, but their tournament run comes to an end this afternoon. After getting a major scare from Xavier, and knowing that Butler knocked out Syracuse, expect the more talented Wildcats to show up that much more focused today. This time of year, a couple things really matter, experience and good guard play. Both teams have experience on their side, but K-State has the overwhelming advantage at the guard positions. No one has had an answer for Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen in this tournament, and I don't think Butler will be the team to break the mold. The Wildcats are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games, 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as a favorite and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Horizon League. Lay the points with K-State.

3* Friday Night NBA Blowout on Suns -10.5
The Suns have plenty of motivation to run up the score on the Knicks tonight. First off, they are fighting for the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference so they can get home court in the first round of the playoffs. Secondly, they will be out for blood here after getting crushed by a score of 99-126 at New York the last time these two teams met. Having not played since Monday, I expect the Suns to be very fresh and energetic this evening. Plus, plays on favorites of 10 or more points, after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, against an opponent that has gone under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games, are 25-5 ATS since 1996 and 13-2 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams in these spots have been favored by 12.2 points on average and are winning by an average of 17.9. Take the Suns.

5* Friday Sweet 16 *BEST BET* on Michigan State pk
I know Michigan State is without Kalin Lucas, and Chris Allen and Delvon Roe are banged up, but this is still a big, physical, squad that has been here and done that before. And this squad is playing for a coach that has been here and done that a lot. Northern Iowa is a good basketball team, but the fact that it relies so heavily on perimeter scoring will finally catch up with the Panthers tonight. Expect the Spartans to kill the Panthers on the boards. Michigan State is 10-1 ATS when playing away from home after a game where it outrebounding an opponent by 15 or more over the last 3 seasons. I've grabbed the Spartans at a pick, but they opened as a 1.5-point favorite and are still a 1-point fave at many books. The fact that they opened as a fave could prove to be quite crucial as they are 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 6.5 or less points and 21-6-2 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite of 6.5 or less period. The Panthers started to really pee down their legs when Kansas started pressuring them late in the game. Expect coach Izzo to take note of that and apply the pressure much sooner. Also, expect the Spartans to really look to hammer the ball inside to take advantage of their physical bodies. We'll pound Michigan State.

4* Major Sweet 16 Perfect Angle Power Play on Baylor -4.5
Look for the length and athleticism of Baylor to be too much for Saint Mary's tonight. The key to beating Saint Mary's is keeping Omar Samhan in check, and I believe Baylor's long and athletic front line guys will be able to do just that. Saint Mary's is a team that can hurt its opponents with the 3-point shot, but Baylor has really excelled against these type of teams. In fact, Baylor is on a 7-0 ATS run vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams making 41% or more of their attempts over the last 3 seasons. The Bears are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. The Gaels, meanwhile, are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as an underdog. With this one being played in Houston, Texas, the Bears will have the support of the crowd as well. We'll lay the points with Baylor.

3* NBA on TNT SMASH on Mavericks +3
This is a revenge game for Dallas, who has lost both previous meetings with the Blazers this season. From a point spread perspective, the Mavs have been at their best on the road, especially here recently. The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. Dallas is also 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games as an underdog of 4.5 or less points. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Trail Blazers have struggled to cover the spread against the NBA's elite. In fact, they are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning rate above 60%. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a winning road record and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. Bet the Mavs.

3* Sweet 16 SMASH on Cornell +9
The experienced Cornell squad has the advantage of playing with nothing to lose, and that makes this team very dangerous. This young Kentucky team will be feeling all the pressure. Plus, the Big Red won't be lacking any confidence heading in as they have already battled both Syracuse and Kansas this season. I feel Cornell is catching plenty of points tonight when you consider how well it takes care of the basketball and how well it shoots the ball from 3-point range. We're talking a team that shot a ridiculous 45.1% from 3 on the road this season. I know Kentucky travels well, but I expect the Carrier Dome crowd to be rallying behind nearby Cornell in this one. Kentucky's blowout wins in the first two rounds are the reason why it is this heavily favored at this stage of the game, but history tells us this is the best time to fade the Wildcats as they are on a 2-17 ATS slide after 2 straight blowout wins by 20 points. Take Cornell and the points.

5* Sweet 16 Game of the Year on Xavier +5
When these two teams met earlier this season, K-State won on its home floor by 15 points over Xavier. That was a payback game. The Wildcats were hungry to avenge a 26-point defeat to Xavier in the previous meeting. Now it's time for Xavier to have it revenge on a neutral floor. Playing teams like N. Texas and BYU in the early rounds isn't the same preparation as playing teams like Minnesota and Pitt. I look for Xavier to be the more intense, physical team tonight. I love the way the Musketeers compete no matter who they are playing. That's a big reason why they are 17-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons. You also have to like the fact that Xavier is 8-1 ATS in NCAA tournament games over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average of 4.7 points. The Musketeers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 neutral site games as an underdog and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. I still don't feel this Xavier team is getting the respect it deserves. Take the points.

3* Sweet 16 Public Massacre on Butler +7
Odds makers know that everyone and their brother is going to be on Syracuse here after watching the Orange crush Gonzaga and Butler struggle with Murray State. With that in mind, they have given Butler plenty of cushion to cover this number as they feel it will be a close game. And I agree entirely. Experience is crucial this time of year and Butler has more of it with all 5 starters back from last year's team. This Butler team plays smart, and because of that, it just doesn't get blown out. Right away, I love the fact that plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after playing a game where both teams scored 65 points or less, with all five starters returning from last season, are 108-57 ATS the last 5 seasons and 76-34 ATS the last 3 seasons. Teams in this situation are only losing by 2.9 points on average. This system shows a direct correlation between experience and a slow style of play as a successful formula for winning when catching points. The Bulldogs are also an impressive 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog. We'll go against the grain and take the points with the Bulldogs tonight.

3* Wednesday NCAAB Top Side on Princeton +4.5
Princeton has what it takes to win this game straight up so I will take the points with the Tigers tonight. Both teams play halfcourt hoops so we can expect this to be a close game, and I'll take the points in this situation every time. Plus, based on the low total set for this game, odds makers feel points will be at a premium. So once again, I like our side where we are catching a couple field goals. Princeton is 18-6 ATS in all lined games this season so it is one of the very best covering teams in the country. It is also a perfect 8-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%), after 15 or more games, over the last 3 seasons. The Tigers are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 road games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. We'll take the points.

3* Wednesday Night NBA SMASH on Rockets +8
The Thunder are struggling a little bit, having lost 3 of their last 4, and I expect them to get a test from a very resilient Houston Rockets squad tonight. The Rockets are coming off a loss in Chicago, but they have proven to be a good bounce back team from a point spread perspective. In fact, the Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Thunder are much improved this season, but they haven't proven they can be trusted laying this many points. In fact, they are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. They also haven't proven they can beat the Rockets. Houston has won 13 in a row against the OKC franchise. It is also worth noting that Houston is 15-5 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons, actually exploding to win in these spots by 10.6 points on average. Take the points.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Magic/Hawks UNDER 196
We've seen the last 4 meetings between these two teams finish Under the number with the average combined score in these games totaling just 180.8 points. This matchup will feel like a playoff game as the defensive intensity should increase. The fact that Orlando crushed the Hawks by 18 the last time these two teams met will have Atlanta out for blood tonight. Revenge plays in our favor here as Atlanta is 19-6 Under when revenging a road loss of 10 points or more versus an opponent over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing 184.8 total points scored in these spots on average. Plus, Atlanta is 23-12 Under vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing an average of 182.3 points scored in these games. Yes, Orlando has been scoring the rock lately, but it is 16-4 Under after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons, and we are only seeing an average of 191.3 points scored in these spots. We'll take the Under tonight.

4* Major NIT Total of the Year (ESPN 2) on Rhode Island/VA Tech UNDER 143
Odds makers have set the bar too high this evening. The Under is 16-5-1 in the Rams' last 22 road games. They just don't score the basketball as well on the road. Plus, Rhode Island is up against a VA Tech squad only allowing 60.1 points in home games this season. When we get a little bit more specific, we find that the Under is 13-3-1 in the Rams' last 17 games as an underdog and 5-0-1 in their last 6 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. The Under is also 7-3 in the Hokies' last 10 home games and 7-1 in their last 8 vs. the Atlantic 10. Here's the clincher: Rhode Island is 11-0 Under versus good defensive teams with a shooting percentage defense of 42% or better, after 15+ games, this season, and we are only seeing an average total of 128.4 points scored in these spots. Bet the Under.

3* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Clippers +10
Dallas will be motivated in this spot following back-to-back defeats, but odds makers are asking too much of the Mavs to win by an 11-point margin, especially without fresh legs, having just played last night. The Clippers will be motivated, too, after a very poor showing against a lowly Kings team that was playing without Tyreke Evans. The performance prompted Baron Davis to call out his team. "There is no explanation for our performance. It was just a lack of effort," said Davis. I expect the Clippers to respond tonight. It likely won't mean a win, but it should mean a cover. Consider this: Dallas is 1-10 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season and 0-8 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points this season. Dallas is also 0-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season this season and 0-7 ATS in home games versus poor teams that are outscored by their opponents by 3 or more points per game in the 2nd half of the season this season. We'll take the points.

5* Tuesday NBA *BEST BET* on Pistons -3
The Pistons just fell in Indiana by 4 points on Friday so they will be hungry to return the favor at home tonight. That hunger should have grown after the Pistons turned in one of their worst performances of the season against the Cavs Sunday. In fact, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (line opened at -3.5) revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent, off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, are 37-14 ATS the last 5 seasons. Plus, plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. a division opponent, off a blowout loss by 20 points or more to a division rival, are 32-11 ATS since 1996, including 11-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. Indiana comes in having lost 9 straight road games with all of those losses coming by at least 4 points. In fact, the Pacers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. We'll lay the points with the Pistons.

3* NIT SMASH (ESPN) on Ole Miss -9
Ole Miss is a really good team, one that was certainly worthy of playing in the NCAA Tournament in my book. We're talking about a team that owns a 12-point win over Kansas State this season. That same K-State squad beat Texas Tech convincingly by 19 points. Home court is huge tonight as Texas Tech is just 4-9 in true road games this season. This number may appear steep at first glance, but consider that the Rebels are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Also, the Red Raiders are only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. We'll lay the points.

3* Monday NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Grizzlies -2
With Tyreke Evans not at 100 percent (listed as questionable), I just don't see the Kings getting the job done tonight against a more talented Memphis squad that is still hanging on to its playoff hopes. Memphis has really played well on the road of late, winning 7 of its last 8 SU & ATS. The Grizzlies are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 10 points, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite and 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. The Kings are just 9-25 ATS in their last 34 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or less. We'll lay the number.

3* 34-0 ATS CBI SMASH on St. Louis -7
St. Louis is on a perfect 8-0 ATS run in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games into the season since 1997. It is also 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. In addition, St. Louis is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) under coach Majerus. The staple of Majerus led teams has been defense and that is certainly the case with this team. So it comes as no surprise that Majerus is 11-0 ATS in home games after game where his team allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less in all games he has coached since 1997. The Billikens are also 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Meanwhile, the Phoenix are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Lay the number.

3* NIT SMASH (ESPN) on Dayton +3.5
Cincy may be 13-4 at home this season, but it is only 2-9 ATS in its home lined games. In fact, the Bearcats are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games dating back to last season. The Bearcats are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. In addition, Cincy is only 1-7 ATS in home games versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 4 or more points per game this season, only winning in these spots by 0.3 points on average. Cincy is also 0-7 ATS in home games after playing a game as favorite over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.

3* Sunday Night NBA SMASH (ESPN) on Suns -6
Phoenix will be out for blood this evening as it tries to avenge 4 straight losses to the Blazers. I love the fact that plays against road teams, extremely well rested team playing only their 2nd game in 7 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 23-5 ATS the last 5 seasons. The road team has lost by 10.4 points on average in these spots. Also, Phoenix is 12-1 ATS versus teams allowing their opponents to shoot 46% or better from the floor in the 2nd half of the season this season, winning these games by an average score of 113.2 to 99.8. The Suns are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Trail Blazers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Look for the Suns to have their revenge this evening.

3* NCAA Tourney Public Massacre on Purdue +2
Everyone is on Texas A&M here, but I'll take an experienced Purdue team that marched on to the Sweet 16 a season ago in this spot. Purdue is the superior defensive team, only allowing 61 ppg this season, and it has proved to be deadly as a dog in this tournament. The Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. The Boilermakers are also 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog overall and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as an underdog. Purdue played with a real chip on its shoulder in its first round game against Siena. The Boilermakers know that no one expects them to do anything without Robbie Hummel, and they are out to prove everyone wrong. I'll take Purdue.

3* SMASH on Xavier +1
Pitt knocked Xavier out of last year's NCAA Tournament with a 5-point win. I look for Xavier to return the favor here against a Pitt squad that isn't nearly as good this season. Xavier has made a living out of being competitive in the NCAA Tournament. In fact, the Musketeers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 NCAA Tournament games. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big East. Xavier is also 16-6 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 74.6 to 66.4, and 18-6 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game over the last 2 seasons, defeating these teams by an average score of 75.5 to 63.6. Plus, Xavier has the best player on the floor in Jordan Crawford, and that never hurts. Take Xavier.

5* Sunday NCAA Tourney *BEST BET* on Michigan State +1
The experience of Kalin Lucas and company in these big games should keep the defending national runner-up marching on. Michigan State has proven to be a strong team on neutral courts. The Spartans are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 neutral site games as an underdog and 17-6 ATS in their last 23 as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less. Meanwhile, Maryland is just 10-22 ATS its last 32 as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less. Defense wins championships this time of year and Michigan State is the better defensive team, only allowing 63.8 ppg. Michigan State is also the best rebounding team in the nation in terms of rebounding margin. It outrebounds its opponents by 9.4 per game. I'll take the team with more tournament experience, the better defensive team and the better rebounding team today.

3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Celtics +4
The Celtics just played last night, but I don't expect freshness to be an issue as they look to make a statement with a win over one of the best teams in the West tonight. In fact, Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing without any rest. Dallas has proven to be an awful chalk team this season, especially at home where it is only winning by 1.8 ppg this season. It's just hard to justify laying points here when you consider that the Mavericks are only 2-25-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite and the Celtics are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or less points. Prior to a January loss to the Mavs, Boston had won 4 straight in this series. That defeat will have the C's even more motivated this evening. Plus, the Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings at Dallas. Take the Celtics and the points.

4* Major NCAA Tourney Dog of the Day on Wake Forest +9.5
Kentucky's good, but not good enough in my estimation to defeat a talented Wake Forest squad by 10 points on a neutral floor. Wake is 12-4 ATS as an underdog over the last 2 seasons, only losing in these spots by 1.0 ppg on average. Wake showed that it could deal with the size of Texas so I don't see Kentucky's size overpowering the Deacs in this one. Plus, playing a highly competitive first round game with a lot more intensity should be to the benefit of Wake as well. Wake has proven time and time against under coach Gaudio that it's going to play its best ball against the best competition. In fact, Wake is 17-4 ATS versus very good teams, outscoring their opponents by 8 or more points per game, after 15+ games under Gaudio, winning in these spots by an average score of 73.3 to 72.4. Look for Wake to give Kentucky a scare tonight!

5* 2010 NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Tennessee -8
Beating a school like Georgetown is like winning the whole thing for a school like Ohio. Tennessee, on the other hand, has much bigger goals. Unfortunately for Ohio, their Cinderella run ends here. While it's not uncommon for some of these higher seeds to sneak up on a first round opponent, the cat is usually out of the bag come the second round. Expect Tennessee, which is a much better defensive team than Georgetown, to be ready. Ohio was able to score 97 points in its win over Georgetown while shooting a ridiculous 58.2% from the field. It would take a similar effort to beat the Vols today and I just don't see it happening. Defensively, the Vols are long and they are relentless. They only allow 64.9 ppg on 39.4% shooting. And after a lackluster offensive effort against San Diego State, I expect Tennessee to really kick things into high gear against a team that allowed Georgetown to shoot over 50% from the field. Expect a big letdown from Ohio today as the Vols march on with a double digit win. Best of Luck.

3* Early SMASH on Villanova -4.5
After getting a major scare from Robert Morris, expect Nova to roll in round 2. This is where the experience gained during last year's Final Four run takes over. The Gaels are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as an underdog. Villanova is 15-6 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 83.1 to 76.5. I also like the fact that Nova is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing their 2nd game in 3 days over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by 7.9 points on average. I can't see Scottie Reynolds struggling again today after such a poor shooting performance in round one. Look for the Wildcats to move on with a win and cover.

3* NCAA Tourney *Crunch Time Bailout* on Louisville pk
If the Cards show up they should win this game, and one has to think they will after watching other Big East schools struggle Thursday. Plus, Cal has been dealt a tough hand with starter Omondi Amoke out serving a suspension. It's been an up and down season for the Cards, but they are certainly capable of making a run when you consider that they have defeated Syracuse twice this season. You also have to like the fact that the Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Pac-10. The Golden Bears are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big East. Louisville has made a Final Four and two Elite 8

4* Major NCAA Tourney Friday Blowout on Michigan State -13
This is the time of year when Michigan State is at its best, and with all the upsets and close games on day one, you can bet Tom Izzo will have his team

3* Friday Night NBA SMASH on Thunder -1
The Thunder will not be lacking any motivation tonight after seeing their five-game winning streak come to an end after blowing a 19-point lead against the Bobcats Wednesday. I expect a very big game from Kevin Durant tonight. After missing 17 of his 26 shots against the Bobcats, including all 7 of his 3-point attempts, he will enter tonight's contest with extreme focus. Plus, the Raptors are the worst defensive team in the East, allowing 105.9 ppg. The Raptors haven't won back-to-back games in a month so they will fight hard tonight. But when it's all said and done, I think it will be just too much Kevin Durant. Plus, Plays against home underdogs looking to avenge a blowout loss of 20 points or more to an opponent, off a close home win by 3 points or less, are 22-4 ATS since 1996, including a perfect 6-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points.

5* Friday NCAA Tourney *BEST BET* on Purdue -4
Purdue has heard a lot of analysts putting it on upset alert now that Robbie Hummel has been lost for the season, but I expect the Boilermakers to be motivated enough to shut all the doubters up in this one. Purdue will be further motivated by laying an egg against Minnesota in its last game. Siena has played well in the NCAA Tourney in recent years, but I'm not sold on this year's team. Siena was crushed by N. Iowa by 17 points and by Butler by 17 points as well, and I can assure you that this Purdue team is every bit as good as those two teams even without Hummel. It doesn't happen often so there isn't much data here, but it is still worth noting that the Boilermakers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss of more than 20 points. They are also 12-4 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more under coach Painter. But here's the clincher: plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who have failed to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, in a game involving two top-level teams (>= 80%) are 19-2 ATS the last 3 seasons, including a perfect 1-0 ATS this season. Lay the points.

5* NCAA Tournament 1st Round Game of the Year on Tennessee -3
In Tennessee, we have a team that has wins over both Kansas and Kentucky so we certainly know what it is capable of when at the top of its game. After getting completely embarrassed by Kentucky in the SEC tourney, I expect to see an extremely hungry and focused team. Right away, I love the fact that plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (line opened at -4), a team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off a loss to a conference rival, are 50-21 ATS since 1997, including 22-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. I also like that the Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. poor free throw shooting teams making 63% of their attempts or worse over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 83.9 to 70.4. I'll take a motivated Tennessee squad laying a small number in round one.

3* 1st Round Upset Alert on Washington +2
Look for No. 11 seed Washington to knock off No. 6 seed Marquette here. Washington enters the Tourney with tons of momentum, having won 7 straight. The impressive thing is that each of its last 6 wins came away from home. Marquette is not a team that is going to blow out many teams. It played a lot of close games this season. With that in mind, it's hard to justify laying points with the Golden Eagles. In fact, they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 or fewer points. The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games. Expect Quincy Pondexter to be the best player on the floor and for Washington to get the "W".

4* Major NBA on TNT *BEST BET* on Magic -2
I know the Magic are playing back-to-back, but last night's breezer against the Spurs hasn't exactly left them gasping for air. Orlando is the much deeper squad with a lot more fire power, and I expect it to take care of business tonight. After Miami won the season's first two meetings, the Magic responded with a 16-point blowout win late last month and I fully expect them to even the season series tonight. Plus, wins by the Heat in this series have been very rare in recent years as Orlando is 8-3 against Miami the last 3 seasons. I really think Miami is being overvalued at this price, especially when you consider that it is 0-8 ATS after covering the spread in 5 or 6 of its last 7 games this season, 5-16 ATS after having won 5 or 6 of its last 7 games straight up over the last 2 seasons and 6-19 ATS in home games off an upset loss by 10 points or more since 1996. It's also nice to know that Orlando is 24-11 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. We'll take the Magic.

4* Major Early Annihilator on Florida +5
Florida is excited to be back in the Big Dance and I expect the Gators to make the most of it. I know Florida had some pretty good players when it won back-to-back titles, but coach Billy Donovan deserves plenty of credit as well. He knows the type of preparation it takes to win Tourney games. He is a big reason why the Gators are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 NCAA Tournament games, including 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games. As a matter of fact, BYU is on a 0-7 ATS slide in all post-season tournament games played away from home, losing these games by an average score of 64.4 to 74.2. Look for Florida to have an excellent opportunity to pull off the upset in this one.

4* Major Wednesday NBA *BEST BET* on Clippers +5
The Bucks are playing good basketball, but we can't forget that they are 7 games below .500 on the road and the Clippers are still 3 games above .500 at home. Plus, the Bucks are 2-9-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings overall and just 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this matchup in Los Angeles. You also have to love the fact that plays on home underdogs, cold team failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, against an opponent that has covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, are 59-25 ATS since 1996, 20-7 ATS the last 5 seasons and a perfect 4-0 ATS this season. We have seen 5.3-point underdog on average with this system and they are only losing by an average of 1.1 points. I also like that the Clippers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. We'll take the home dog.

3* NCAAB Crunch Time Bailout on Boston +7.5
Oregon State is a great against the spread team, and we've cashed in on the Beavers plenty this season, but now is the time to go against them. Oregon State really slows down the pace of the game. As a result, it is only averaging 59.7 ppg on the season. In other words, it's difficult to win by large margins when playing this way. So it should come as no surprise that the Beavers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. We saw Boston play K-State to a 10-point game earlier this season, and it has defeated a very good Northeastern team, so there is some talent on this squad. The Terriers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. We'll take the points tonight.

3* NIT Annihilator (ESPNU) on Stony Brook +7
Illinois saw its bubble burst when it lost to Ohio State in double-OT in the Big Ten tourney. This Illinois team looked like a lock for the Big Dance until it lost 6 of its last 8 games. No matter how hard Bruce Weber might try, it's going to be hard for him to get his team motivated to play this basketball game. In addition, I'm always leery of Illinois laying points since it is just 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games as a favorite. I'm especially leery when we're talking this many points as the Fighting Illini are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Plus, Illinois is only 2-8 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season. Stony Brook had its sights set on the NCAA Tourney as well, but it will have no trouble getting up for a home game against a major conference team. We'll take the points.

3* NBA "Total" Dominator on Lakers/Kings UNDER 206
Plays Under on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA), tired team playing its 3rd road game in 5 days, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, are 130-82 since 1996, including 63-33 the last 3 seasons. The Lakers just played a fast-paced game in Golden State last night so they aren't going to have the energy to run and gun again here. Expect the Lakers to slow the pace as much as possible, operating in the half court offensively. The Lakers are also 24-11 Under when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons, and we are only seeing 199.8 points scored in the games on average. The Under is also 5-0 in the Lakers' last 5 games following an ATS loss and 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. We'll bet the Under.

3* NIT Opening Round SMASH (ESPN) on UNC -8.5
William & Mary has had some very good wins this season, but I don't like its chances tonight. The Tar Heels are way more athletic with a lot more size. They should dominate the boards and really hurt the Tribe in the paint as well as in transition. It's been an embarrassing season for UNC, and the last thing they want is to take an embarrassing loss to school like W&M on national TV. It's been a struggle for Roy Williams this season, but he should have his boys ready to play tonight. The fact that W&M has some quality wins will only make it easier for Williams to get his boys to take this one seriously. W&M is a team that really depends on the 3-point shot, but I don't anticipate the Tribe shooting a high percentage. UNC's quickness in closeouts and their length won't allow W&M to get as many clean looks as they will need. The Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Lay the number.

3* Opening Round SMASH (ESPN) on Ark Pine Bluff +4.5
I really can't justify laying the points here when you consider how awful Winthrop is offensively. The Eagles only shoot 38.3% from the floor, and just 25.5% from beyond the arc. Ark Pine Bluff started the season 0-11 as it played 11 straight road games against schools such as UTEP, Arizona State, Michigan, Oklahoma State, Georgia Tech, Missouri and Kansas State. These early season losses paid dividends down the stretch when Golden Lions won their conference tournament, and I expect them to pay off in this play-in game as well. Plays against neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (Winthrop), poor offensive team scoring 64 or fewer points per game on the season, after allowing 60 points or less 2 straight games, are 40-17 ATS since 1997, 24-9 ATS the last 5 seasons and 17-6 ATS the last 3 seasons. The favorite has been favored by 5.3 points on average in these games but is only winning by an average of 0.7 points. Also, plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (APB), after playing a game where both it and its opponents scored 65 points or less, with all five starters returning from last season, are 73-33 ATS the last 3 seasons. We'll take the points with the Golden Lions here.

3* NBA Crunch Time Bailout (ESPN) on Warriors +8
The Warriors have quietly covered the spread in 3 straight, 6 of their last 8 and 10 of their last 15. Playing Portland to a 5-point game and defeating Toronto by double digits in their last 2 comes as no surprise as the Warriors are healthier than they've been in a long time with Corey Maggette and Monta Ellis back in the lineup. With this being a division game, and with it being against the best team in the West, you can bet the Warriors will be pumped up. In fact, they are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. the NBA Pacific Division. They are 8-1 ATS versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 6 or more points per game this season, only losing to these teams by 4.7 points on average. They are also 17-5 ATS versus other up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots per game this season, only losing to these teams by .3 points on average. The Lakers are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The Lakers have struggled to put teams away on the road and we anticipate that being the case again this evening.

4* Major Monday Night NBA *BEST BET* Blowout on 76ers -3.5
After a completely dominant performance against the Mavs Saturday, this is a natural letdown spot for the Knicks. Meanwhile, the 76ers will be hungry to avenge yesterday's loss to Miami and a 1-point home heartbreaker to the Knicks earlier this year. The Knicks are only 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings and just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Philadelphia. The Knicks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win and 15-31 ATS in their last 46 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. The 76ers have won 8 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams, with all 8 of those wins coming by 5 points or more, and with 6 of them coming by double figures. Lay the number.

3* Sunday Night NBA SMASH on Jazz +1.5
The Jazz have not lost back-to-back games in more than two months and I don't expect that streak to end today. They will be especially motivated this evening against a team that defeated them in both previous meetings this season, including a 1-point heartbreaker the last time they met. Besides being a good bounce back team from a straight up standpoint, the Jazz are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games following a S.U. loss. They are are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Plus, Utah is 12-2 ATS off a road loss this season, winning these games by an average score of 107.2 to 97.3. It is also 17-5 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season, winning in these spot by an average score of 104.7 to 95.5. Take the Jazz.

3* NBA Early Annihilator on Pacers +9.5
After an embarrassing loss to the Celtics, and after 3 prior defeats to the Bucks this season, expect the Pacers to be very hungry here. The Pacers have played the Bucks to 3 and 2 point games in two of their 3 defeats so I think we are getting a really good line here. Right away, I love the fact that plays against favorites, an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after 3 straight games where it and its opponents scored 95 points or less, are 23-3 ATS the last 5 seasons. The underdog is only losing by an average of .3 points in these games while being faced with an average pointspread of 7.6. It is also worth noting that Indiana is 8-1 ATS after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 105.6 to 98.8. The Bucks are rolling right now and they are being overvalued because of it. Expect the Pacers to keep this one close.

4* Major Sunday Conference Tourney *BEST BET* (ABC) on Mississippi State +8
According to ESPN Bracketologist Joe Lunardi, Mississippi State is still on the first five out list in terms of the NCAA Tourney. While I think the Bulldogs are deserving of a bid, and they certainly feel they have done enough, now is not the time to leave any doubt in the mind of the committee by getting blown out here. Expect Mississippi State, which took Kentucky to OT during the regular season, to give the Wildcats all they want and more again to solidify their spot in the Big Dance. I really like the Bulldogs catching this many points as they are an impressive 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5 points. Plus, they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as an underdog. The public is all over Kentucky here after its dominant win Saturday, but now is actually the time to go against the Wildcats as they are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 20 points and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Mississippi State is also 14-3 ATS versus good offensive teams scoring 77+ points per game over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 74.8 to 67.8. I like the experience of the Bulldogs in this big game as well. Take the points.

3* Saturday Night NBA SMASH on Wizards +12.5
This might be Washington's 3rd game in 3 nights, but that actually plays in our favor here as it is causing odds makers to severely undervalue this team. Washington may only be 12-21 at home, but it is only losing those games by an average of 2.6 points. Orlando is 19-14 on the road, but it is only winning those games by 2.2 points on average. So I'd say we are getting some pretty good value with the Wizards here. Plus, Washington has proven that it shows up against the Magic and should be even more motivated to do so after a poor performance against Detroit. The Wizards have won both meetings this season and haven't lost by more than 9 points in the last 4. It also plays to our favor that Orlando has a game tomorrow against a better Bobcats team. A win will suffice for the Magic here while staying fresh for tomorrow's contest. So there

5* Big 12 Tourney Game of the Year (ESPN) on Kansas State +5.5
Kansas State wants this one bad! The Wildcats gave the Jayhawks all they wanted and more in the season's first meeting, losing by just 2 points in overtime. The second meeting, at Kansas, saw the Jayhawks shoot out of their minds in a convincing win. That win actually plays in our favor here though. Not only does a loss like that really motivate the losing team, especially one as good as K-State, but it also forces odds makers to increase the point spread. I just don't think Kansas is 6 points better on a neutral floor, not with the motivation that K-State has after two prior defeats. Kansas has been overvalued all season because of the betting attention that the No. 1 team in the country receives. It's an easy way for the books to make money. Jack up the line on Kansas and collect when they don't cover the spread. In fact, the Jayhawks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. win and just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS win. The Wildcats have been the better teams to back. They are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 games overall, 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. We'll take the points.

3* Atlantic 10 Annihilator on Richmond +4
This is a big time revenge spot for Richmond, which lost by 2 points in double-OT to Xavier earlier this season. We successfully played on Xavier for our Conference Tournament Game of the Year yesterday as the Musketeers were looking to exact revenge on Dayton. Today, we'll go against Xavier as Richmond should be the more motivated team. Right away, I love the fact that the Spiders are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Plus, the Spiders are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall and an unbeaten 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Richmond should most definitely show up today. We'll take the points.

4* Major Conference Tourney Late Night Blowout on Vandy -7.5
I'll back the Commodores in an extremely motivated spot tonight. Georgia gave Vandy all it wanted and more during the regular season. The Dawgs won at home 72-58 and they only lost by 2 points on OT at Vandy. But what these scores don't tell you is that the first meeting was a sandwich game for the Dores. Vandy had just won a tough one against Mississippi State and then got caught looking ahead to Tennessee. The second one was a letdown spot. Vandy had just lost a heartbreaker to Kentucky the game before and clearly wasn't yet over that defeat. Because of how tough Georgia played Vandy during the regular season, and because it enters off a loss to S. Carolina on senior day, expect to see Vandy extremely motivated tonight. The Commodores want this SEC tourney badly. They want another shot at Kentucky. They also carry the big edge in terms of fresh legs and prep time having not played since last Saturday. We'll lay the points with the more talented side.

4* Major NBA Dog of the Week on Clippers +10
After 5 straight losses, the Clippers will be a very hungry team tonight. On top of that, they will draw confidence from a 98-94 win over the Bobcats last month. The Bobcats are rolling, having won 4 in a row SU & ATS, but it's going to be difficult for them to give the Clippers their full attention with Orlando up next. Just last month, the Bobcats lost to the Nets at home when they were caught looking ahead to Cleveland. Plus, plays against home favorites of 10 or more points, after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season, are 21-6 ATS the last 5 seasons, 8-2 ATS the last 3 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. The road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Clippers.

5* Conference Tournament Game of the Year on Xavier -3
Ever since Xavier was absolutely embarrassed by Dayton, losing 65-90, the Musketeers have been on an absolute tear, winning 7 in a row with 5 of those wins coming by double digits. You can bet Xavier was hoping it would get a chance to face Dayton again. Well, it gets that chance this evening and I expect the Musketeers to get their revenge. Right away, I love the fact that plays on any team revenging a blowout loss of 20 points or more, after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, are 32-9 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Flyers enter at 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Xavier is 17-6 ATS as a favorite this season, 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games following a S.U. win of more than 20 points and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game. Look for Xavier to roll tonight.