The Reds clinched a season series vs Philly with a 7-4, come-from-behind win on Wednesday and I project them to be a solid runline winner here today in a game that is expected to closely contested. It must be noted Reds starter Martinez will be making his first career start against Philadelphia, but the  right-hander has been dominant in five career relief appearances vs. the Phillies, allowing just one run and four hits over 10 1/3 innings with no decisions.PHILADELPHIA is 13-29 against the run line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons.PHILADELPHIA is 20-42   against the run line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons.PHILADELPHIA is 19-39  against the run line with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL) over the last 2 seasons.CINCINNATI is 49-30 SU  vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on Cincinnati +1.5 runline 

The White Sox have lost 11 of their 12 games on the road this season, in what has begun as an absolutely abysmal start  to their campaign which gives me little credence to consider them as viable underdogs. 

White Sox expected starter Crochet goes to the hill in  his sixth start of the season. He is 1-3 with a 5.61 ERA and 34 strikeouts in 25 2/3 innings pitched.The southpaws most recent appearance was on Friday against the Philadelphia Phillies, when he threw three innings, surrendering seven earned runs while allowing five hits. In his current form he is fade material. Note: White Sox are averaging just 2.2 rpg scored. 

CHI WHITE SOX are 2-17  against the money line against right-handed starters this season. CHI WHITE SOX are 4-21   against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +200 over the last 2 seasons.

 MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (CHI WHITE SOX) - very bad AL offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or better ), after a loss by 2 runs or less are 38-3 L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to win

Atlanta routed the Marlins 5-0 Tuesday while cashing as a -258 home favorite and Im betting on another top tier effort from the Braves again as the weak bats of the Marlins (2.16 BA) go head to head against expected starting pitcher  Lopez  (2-0, 0.50 ERA) who makes his 4th start. He has a 0.94 WHIP, 9.0 BB/9 and 3.0 K/9 in 18 innings. The starter is backed with a solid Bullpen that has garnered a 3.38 ERA. Advantage Braves 

MIAMI is 4-16  against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season with the average rpg diff clicking in at -2. 

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (MIAMI) - bad offensive team (3.8 or less runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) (NL), with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games. are 33-1 L/5 seasons with the average ppg diff +3.6 which qualifies on this runline offering. 

ATLANTA is 2-0  against MIAMI this season with the victories coming by 5-0 and 3-0 scores.

The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+9.25 Units / 14% ROI)

Play on Atlanta to win -1.5 runline 

When these teams played last week the Nationals won 2 of 3 games, and once again look like vial-be runline underdogs here today in DC. The Dodgers were just 3-6 in their recent home stand and now traveling from west to east with very little momentum, must deal with a time zone change which could easily contribute to a down effort vs a home side that has won 3 of their L/4 trips to the diamonds . It must be noted Dodgers expected starter James Paxtion has seen his team lose his last 2 starts vs the Nats garnering. nasty 6.43 ERA , while losimng by combined 15-4 count. I know Paxton is 2-0 on the season, but could be in trouble vs a patient Washington batting order, as he owns a ugly walk-to-strikeout rate of 14-to-10 this season. 

MLB Home teams against a 1.5 run line (WASHINGTON) - starting a pitcher who was hit for 5+ runs in his last 2 outings, with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games are 45-17 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

Play on Washington +1.5 runline 

Pitching Trends:KCs expected starter SINGER is 17-6 OVER  as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with combined average of 10.6 rpg scored. Blue Jays expected starter KIKUCHI is 1-2 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 6.37 and a WHIP of 1.483. KIKUCHIin his L/11 starts  vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) have seen a combined average of 10.7 rpg scored. Jays bullpen owns a sub par 5.24 ERA so far this season. KC has averaged 5.9 rpg at home this season.

QUATRARO in his L/ 32  in home games vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season as the manager of KANSAS CITY has seen a combined average of 10 rpg scored. 

QUATRARO is 14-3 OVER  in home games after a loss by 4 runs or more as the manager of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 11.3 rpg scored. ( Lost to Baltimore 5-0 yesterday)

 MLB  teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (TORONTO) - below average hitting team (AVG .265 or less) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA 3.20 or less ) -AL, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 start are 36-10 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with an average of 11.5 rpg scored.

MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (KANSAS CITY/TORONTO) - below average hitting team (AVG .265 or less) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA 3.20 or better) -AL, starting a pitcher who gave up  2 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are 70-30 OVER for a 70% conversion rate with the average rpg diff clicking in at 10.6 rpg .

Play over

This season, the Cubs have been favored seven times and won six of those games and own a  record of 6-1 in games when oddsmakers favor them by at least -128 on the moneyline and have the edge today according to my own own projections. I know Hendricks the Cubs starter might have some nasty early season numbers attached to his pitching profile, but it must be noted he will face a Miami side that has garnered a ugly .324 slugging percentage this season so far which is the second-lowest percentage in the majors.The Marlins also rank 27th in MLB with a .215 batting average. Im betting on Hendricks righting his ship and for the Cubs to do enough damage against the Marlins starter Cabrera to get us to the promised land of victory.

MIAMI is 1-9  against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.MIAMI is 31-86 L/117 against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MIAMI) - with a team on base percentage .300 or worse on the season (NL) against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA  7.00 or more over his last 3 starts are 7-27 L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate. 

MLB Home teams (CHICAGO CUBS) - below average NL hitting team (AVG .255or less) against a team with a below avg bullpen (ERA 4.50 or more ), with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.50 or more over his last 3 starts are 48-16 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play on Chicago to win

Baltimore evened up the series with the Royals Saturday night with a 9-7 victory but Im now betting on immediate limited  offensive production here today, mostly based on the output projections expected by the Royals . Note:The Orioles will start Lugo (3-0, 1.05 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 4.6 K/9 in 25 2/3 innings and has not allowed more than 2 ERS in any start and is off a shut out performance last time out.  KCs starter IRVIN in 6 career outings  when starting against KANSAS CITY has garnered a  ERA of 2.83 and a WHIP of 1.172 with all six games staying on the low side of the totals offering. 

Kansas City went gone under the total in 4 previous games before the Baltimore series began.

MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (KC/ BALTIMORE) - in a game involving two top-level teams ( 62% or better ), playing on Sunday are 30-4 UNDER L/27 seasons with a combined average of 6.3 rpg scored.

Play under

The Phillies offense is finally starting to roll and have scored 5, 7, 7 runs in their L/3 trips to the diamonds and Im betting on more production today vs expected starting Right-hander Michael Soroka (0-2, 6.98 ERA) . Im also betting the Phillies will be primed to support right-hander Zack Wheeler (0-3, 3.00 ERA), who hasn't received much run support this season. QUOTE: "It's frustrating," Manager Thomson said. "We haven't really swung the bats in his starts. That'll change."

 PHILADELPHIA is 72-43 UNDER  in home games after scoring 7 runs or more 2 straight games with a combined average of 8.7 rpg scored.

PHILADELPHIA is 16-5 OVER   in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 10.4 rpg scored .PHILADELPHIA is 20-8 OVER in home games when playing on Saturday over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 10.6 rpg scored.

MLB  team (CHI WHITE SOX) - struggling AL offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against a good NL starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or better ), with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games are 34-8 OVER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 10.8 rpg scored. 

MLB team (CHI WHITE SOX) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season (AL), with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games are 50-17 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 11 rpg. 

Play over

The Tigers were able to get redemption for a 1-0 loss in the series opener on Monday and grabbed a  4-2 victory on Tuesday afternoon by garnering  two runs in the eighth inning and get the nod again here today.

 Note: Texas starter DUNNING is 7-20  against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)DUNNING is 3-10   against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) DUNNING is 0-9 against the money line in road games against AL Central opponents in his career. (Team's Record)  DUNNING is 4-18 against the money line in road games in the first half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record) DUNNING is 1-3 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 4.73 and a WHIP of 1.020.

Left-hander Tarik Skubal (2-0, 2.08 ERA) is expected to start the third game of the four-game set for Detroit against the Rangers. Skubal collected his second victory of the season on Friday when he held the Minnesota Twins scoreless for five innings and enters this game with momentum. SKUBAL is 7-1  against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season in his career. (Team's Record) The Tigers bullpen also hasn't allowed a run over 5 2/3 innings in the series and Im betting will give Skubal the support he needs when and if he leaves this game. 

Considering Texas has scored two runs or fewer in four of the past six games their current from suggests their host has the advantage. 

Play on the Tigers to win 

The Guardians improved their road record to 8-2 with Monday's 6-0  win at Fenway and have obvious momentum entering this game vs their hosts the BoSox.  Note: BOSTON is 8-17  against the money line in home games after scoring 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons.

BOSTON is 15-32  against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. 

BOSTON is 2-14  against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.

Cleveland starter BIBEE is 1-0 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 1.200

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BOSTON) - revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite of -150 or more, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts are just 18-41 L/27 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB  Road teams (CLEVELAND) - after 5 straight games where they had less than 10 hits, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 10 games are 60-33 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland to win 

Right-hander Cal Quantrill (0-2, 7.20 ERA),  will start Monday's game for Colorado and is fade material in his current form.  I know Philadelphia has scored more than five runs in a game just once this year, and the offense has looked inconsistent, but this is a major break out situation for the Phillies. Quote: "We have to get going offensively, which I think we will. I don't think that's a question at all," said Turner, per the Press of Atlantic City. "I feel like we're in a good spot, and we'll get rolling." EndQuote:

Phillies starter Aaron Nola (2-1, 4.50 ERA) and this will be his fourth start this season for the Phillies. The right-hander allowed two runs on three hits in six innings in the Phillies 4-3 victory  last week against the Cardinals in St. Louis and gets my backing in this spot play. 

COLORADO is 4-40  against the money line as a road underdog of +200 or more over the last 2 seasons with the average rpg diff clicking in at -3.2 which easily quaflies on this run-line offering. 

MLB Road underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +110 to +155) (COLORADO) - after a game where they had at least 10 less hits than their opponent, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 10 games are 11-40 L/27 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors with the average rpg diff clicking in at +3.1. 

Play on Philadelphia to win -1.5 runline 

The series finale is expected to see two right-handers go to the hill as  the Cubs'  send Javier Assad (1-0, 1.64 ERA) against the Mariners' Luis Castillo (0-3, 6.89).Assad, has looked good in his  two starts this season winning a 12-2 event on April 2 hosting the  Colorado Rockies , while  throwing six scoreless innings. On Monday on the road vs San Diego, he left with a six-run lead after five innings  of top tier work in a game the Cubs eventually blew by a  9-8 count.Meanwhile, Seattles starter Castillo, who owns a  7-5 record along  with a 3.64 ERA in 17 career starts against the Cubs, has given up four earned runs in each of his first three starts of the season, and has looked a little shaky  as has  failed to last more than 5 2/3 innings in those starts.Note: CASTILLO is 6-11  against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Advantage Cubs.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (CHICAGO CUBS) - struggling  NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or better ), in April games are just 30-13 L/5 seasons for a  70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win 

This season, the Dodgers have won 10 out of the 16 games, for a  62.5%, conversion rate  when they have been favored. 

The oddsmakers' moneyline implies a 65.8% chance of a victory for the Dodgers. and added league wide trends support an even higher probability of victory.

Padres starter  Waldron has-seen his team loes his only start as an underdog this season.Waldron's team is 0-2 when he starts this season. and Im betting nothing changes today as my early season pitcher vs batting order projections estimate that the Dodgers matchup very well against him.

ROBERTS is 73-24  against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 as the manager of LA DODGERS.

MLB favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (LA DODGERS) - revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite of -150 or more, off a one run loss versus a division rival are 40-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (LA DODGERS) - revenging a one run loss to opponent, off a loss to a division rival as a favorite are 46-4 L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Dodgers to win 

Minnesota ended  a four-game losing streak by recording a 3-2 victory vs the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday, but their offensive inconsistencies give cause for pause when believing they may be ready to get going in a positive direction. Meanwhile, the Tigers offense has shown flashes of brilliance and according to my power rankings matches up well against the Lopez the Twins expected starter . After yesterdays cancellation and their Day off on Wednesday the Tigers are well rested and ready for a top tier effort. 

 MINNESOTA is 6-23  against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 62% or better  over the last 3 seasons.

DETROIT is 29-13   against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.

Home teams (DETROIT) - American League team who had a slugging percentage .410 or worse last season, ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 10 games are 26-8 L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MINNESOTA) - poor AL offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or better ), after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base are 4-35 L/5 seasons for a 90% go against  conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to win

New York will send left-hander Jose Quintana (0-1, 2.61 ERA) to the mound on Thursday. He allowed one run on five hits over 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision against the Cincinnati Reds last Friday and Im betting he continues his strong work vs a lineup he matches up well against according to my own early season pitcher vs offense power rankings. 

MLB Road underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-160 to -115) (NY METS) - below average NL hitting team (AVG .255 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or better ), in April games are 40-7 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the NYM +1.5  runline 

New York will send left-hander Jose Quintana (0-1, 2.61 ERA) to the mound on Thursday. He allowed one run on five hits over 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision against the Cincinnati Reds last Friday and Im betting he continues his strong work vs a lineup he matches up well against according to my own early season pitcher vs offense power rankings. 

MLB Road underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-160 to -115) (NY METS) - below average NL hitting team (AVG .255 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or better ), in April games are 40-7 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the NYM +1.5  runline 

Left-hander Cody Bradford (2-0, 2.13 ERA), who was co-Most Outstanding Player of the 2018 Big 12 Tournament with Langelier's when both played at Baylor, will be on the mound for Texas on Wednesday. He will be primed to end the Rangers 3 game losing streak which came at the hands of the Houston Astros. I know the As have won 3 straight, but Im betting their over matched in this tilt as  as they send Right-hander Ross Stripling (0-2, 3.75 ERA), who is 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA in five career appearances (two starts) against the Rangers

OAKLAND is 17-59  against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

MLB favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (TEXAS) - revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite of -150 or more, off a one run loss versus a division rival are 39-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (TEXAS) - off a one run loss versus a division rival are 61-9 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate.

Play on Rangers to win 

The Baltimore offense, smashed out 13 hits during a 7-1 win over Boston on Tuesday in the series opener and now Im betting they roll here again today vs the Red Sox starter  Crawford. Note: Red Sox starter CRAWFORD is 3-12  against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) CRAWFORD is 2-9  against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

BOSTON is 2-13  against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.

CORA is 11-23  against the money line after scoring 1 or less runs in a loss to a division rival as the manager of BOSTON

MLB  Road teams (BALTIMORE) - off a win of 6 runs or more over a division rival, a good team (54% to 62%) playing a team with a winning record are 31-9 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Baltimore to win 

Mets upset Atlanta yesterday and now Im betting on. big bounce back effort from the Braves. Mets starter HOUSER is 0-4 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.600. Lopez allowed one run over six innings on April 2, when the Braves lost 3-2 to the Chicago White Sox. He is 1-2 with a 3.77 ERA in six games (two starts) vs. the Mets and according to my early season power rankings matchs up well vs the Mets offensive lineup. 

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (ATLANTA) - off a loss to a division rival as a favorite of -150 or higher against opponent off a one run win over a division rival are 36-2 L/5 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Atlanta Braves

These are two teams playing at the opposite ends of the performance spectrum.The White Sox,  are 1-9 on the season , and  have been shut out four times already. Meanwhile,The Guardians won the series opener 4-0 on Monday vs the Pale Hose and are now  8-2 on the season and deserve respect here on a runline bet as they have won their L/4 by 2 runs or more. Note: Cleveland starter Allen (2-0, 2.31 ERA) so far this season  and he looked exremely proficient  in a  8-0 road victory over the Seattle Mariners on Wednesday,going  6 2/3 shutout innings. He;ll be a hard nut to crack here, vs a Pale Hose offense averaging just 1.8 rpg via a ugly .196 BA.

CLEVELAND is 29-9  in home games vs. AL teams scoring 3.9 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 2 runs per game. 

Play on the Cleveland Indians -1.5 runline 

The Rangers have won each of their last five games as underdogs following a loss which was the case yesterday in a 3-1 loss to the Astros. 

The Astros have lost each of their last six games as favorites against AL West opponents following a win. 

Im betting the Rangers bouncing back here today.

MLB team (HOUSTON) - poor AL hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or less), with a very bad bullpen whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season are 4-33 L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Rangers to win 

Mariners starter CASTILLO  in 6 road games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) has seen a combined average of 6.6 rpg going on the board. 

Blue Jays starter BERRIOS is 21-9 UNDER vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.4 rpg scored.BERRIOS is 11-2 UNDER in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.5 rpg scored.

MLB Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (TORONTO) - with a team slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season (AL), after allowing 8 runs or more 2 straight games are 31-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate with a combined average of 6.2 rpg going on the board.

Play on the under

The White Sox come into this game having dropped four straight games to the Royals, and in their current form are fade material. Chicago ,has lost four straight to open the season, is 1-8 overall and 0-7 against the American League Central.

MLB team (CHI WHITE SOX) - poor AL hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or less), with a very bad bullpen whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season are 4-33 L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate with the average rpg diff clicking in at +2.7 which qualifies on this runline offering. 

MLB Home teams (CLEVELAND) - very good offensive team - scoring 5.4 or more runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 1 run or less are 31-6 L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate with the average rpg diff clicking in at +2.8 which qualifies on this ATS offering.

Play on Guardians to cover -1.5

The Astros offense has looked very inconsistent to start the season, and   only managed two runs, in. a lopsided loss to the Rangers yesterday. Im betting things will not change today as the Rangers side averaging 6.5 runs while their pitching is giving up just 3.38 runs per tilt. I know the Astros Blanco had a top tier outing last time out, but Im betting on regression here against a scoring offense that is not easily shut down. 

BOCHY is 7-0  against the money line after allowing 2 runs or less 3 straight games as the manager of TEXAS. BOCHY is 17-4 against the money line after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games as the manager of TEXAS.

MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (TEXAS) - with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season against opponent with a very bad bullpen whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season are 41-7 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate.

Play on Texas to win 

Two explosive offenses go head to head here against two average looking pitchers Sale and Nelson. The first two games of this series went over the Total, and Im betting on more offensive fireworks today. Nelson current form lends credence to a a short outing which is not a good omen for the a Arizona bullpen that is currently overworked. 

ARIZONA is 28-12 OVER in road games vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 10.5 rpg scored. ARIZONA is 17-6 OVER  as a road underdog of +150 or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 10.9 rpg scored.

ATLANTA is 25-12 OVER when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 11.5 rpg scored.ATLANTA is 13-3 OVER  in home games in April games over the last 2 season with a combined average of 10.3 rpg scored. 

Play on the over

The Rays will send out Tyler Alexander in the starter role on Saturday He is just  11-23 in his career with a 4.44 ERA over 121 games (43 starts) Feltner the Rockies starter also does not give credence to a stellar Rockies pitching performance. However, Im betting home field advantage here will be the difference maker at least from a competitive perspective, which makes taking the runline an advantageous situation. The Rockies took a walk off 10-7 win yesterday and a rinse and repeat situation is not out of the question. Its early into my wagering campaign, and at this point in the season, insurance via the runline is always a key option until teams get into a more predictable groove.

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (TAMPA BAY) - good team from last season, outscored opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game, after allowing 10 runs or more are just 8-24 L/27 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line (COLORADO) - below average NL hitting team (AVG .255 or worse) against a team with a below avg bullpen (ERA  4.50 or worse), with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is 5.50 or worse on the season are 53-14 L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Colorado +1.5 

The Cubs have won 5 straight including yesterdays 9-7 win vs the Dodgers at home in Wrigley and must not be underestimated in this abilities to pull off the underdog win here today. Considering Chicago has scored 35 runs over its first four home games its not a stretch to believe they can make short work of Yamamoto (0-1, 7.50 ERA) the Dodgers starter. Note: This Dodgers squad faces Chicago left-hander Jordan Wicks (0-0, 4.50 ERA), who will make his first career start against Los Angeles . Dating back to last season his team has won his last 3 starts. 

CHICAGO CUBS are 12-4   against the money line as a home underdog of +150 to +200 over the last 3 seasons.

MLB Road teams (LA DODGERS) - stranding 7.5 or more runners on base per game on the season, after allowing 8 runs or more are 9-29 L/5 seasons for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (LA DODGERS) - good team from last season, outscored opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game, after a combined score of 15 runs or more are 19-35 L/27 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago Cubs

As starter Blackburn is a quality pitcher, but the Tigers offense according to my early season power rankings matches up well against him and even better vs the Motown pedestrian bullpen.What Im betting here is that the Tigers get serviceable innings out of Maeda their expected starter and quality bull pen group , and also  thanks to a sometimes explosive offense find a way to the promised land. 

OAKLAND is 3-33  against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better over the last 2 seasons. OAKLAND is 18-44  against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (OAKLAND) - struggling AL offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or better ), after a loss by 2 runs or less are 3-37 L/5 seasons for a go against 93% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to win 

Rockies starter GOMBER is 15-9  against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 in his career. (Team's Record) along with a +0.5 rpg diff in those 24 tilts which qualifies in this RL offering. Note:Gomber got the start in the Rockies' only win this season. Meanwhile TBs starter LITTELL is 0-1 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 1.50. Colorado has struggled out of the gate, but now get to come home and play in the friendly confines of Coors Field for the first time this season. Im betting they are competitive today and cover the runline.

COLORADO is 9-1  in home games after allowing 7 runs or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons

MLB Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line (COLORADO) - poor NL offensive team (3.8 or less runs/game) against a team with a below avg. bullpen (ERA 4.50 or worse), after allowing 9 runs or more are 33-5 L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

MLB Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line (COLORADO) - below average NL hitting team (AVG .255 or less ) against a team with a below avg bullpen (ERA 4.50 or worse), with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is 5.50 or worse on the season are 52-14 L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Colorado +1.5 

Red Sox expected starter Pivetta  owns a 1.50 ERA and 15.0 strikeouts per nine innings, while opponents are batting .143 against him this season so far. 

He will go to the hill against an Athletics offense that is batting .195 as a unit (27th in MLB). It is also slugging a collective .323 (24th in MLB).

Meanwhile, the As expected starter Stripling owns a  7.20 ERA and 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings while opponents are hitting .318 against him. The opposing Red Sox offense has a .244 batting average, and is eighth in the league with 53 total hits and 12th in MLB play with 28 runs scored. 

Advantage Red Sox 

 The implied probability of a win from the Red Sox, based on the moneyline, is 62% so we have an edge their according to projections. The A's have come away with one win in the six contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season and Im betting this will be their 6th failure.

The Oakland Athletics have only hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 157 games (-31.10 Units / -20% ROI)

MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (BOSTON) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 14+ losses in last 20 games, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 34-6 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boston to win 

The BoSox look to be in a groove and have won their last two games by a 14-1 combined count including yesterday 9-0 shellacking of Oakland. Im betting on a rinse and repeat W going on the board today. Note:  BOSTON is 16-4 against the money line after scoring 9 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Also MLB  favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (BOSTON) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 14+ losses in last 20 games, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 34-6 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

OAKLAND is 10-30  against the money line as a home underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Boston to win

 BoSox starter Houck had great control in the spring, issuing just three walks in 15 innings. He went 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA in five appearances, striking out 16 and gets the nod today according to my matchup projections vs the Oakland As. 

Oakland had started their season  losing 3 straight games to the Cleveland Guardians by a total score of 26-7 , but bounced back last time out with a walk of walk to grab a win. Im now betting on immediate regression vs what is a superior side.

MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (BOSTON) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 14+ losses in last 20 games, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 33-6 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Boston to win

. The Astros stranded 34 baserunners and finished 8-for-41 with runners in scoring position in their season opening four game sweep at the hands of the Yankees and Im betting based on my projections  they continue to have issues today vs the Jays pitching staff. HOUSTON is 23-9 UNDER  in home games after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 7.4 rpg scored. TORONTO is 27-13 UNDER  vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined averag of 7.7 rpg scored. 

MLB  teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (TORONTO/HOUSTON) - in a game involving two teams who had good records (54% to 62%) from last season are 29-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the under

After winning the first two games of this series by 2 runs or more  , the Dodgers flunked out last night as the  Cardinals beat Dodgers 6-5 in 10 innings after Betts homered in the ninth. That was nice dramatic win for the Cards, but now in a emotional let down state vs a redemption minded side playing at home on national TV, Im betting for the Dodgers to make a statement in a bounce back situation. Note: Dating back to last season The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 82 of their last 144 games (+22.85 Units / 13% ROI)

LA DODGERS are 47-19 SU after a loss over the last 2 seasons with the average rpg diff clicking in at +1.9  which qualifies on this runline offering. 

Play on the LA Dodgers to win -1.5 runline 

The Royals' offense is not visible yet  scoring just one run in each of their first two games. Kansas City has just 10 total hits so far this season and  im betting their struggles continue today vs the Twins who matchup well vs the Royals starter Singer who in two starts against the Twins last season, allowed 10 runs in 7 2/3 innings. KANSAS CITY is 9-23   against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 3-18  against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Twins to win

Stroman/Brown probable pitching matchup projects a strong pitcher advantage vs  opposing offensive production . Same holds true with active  bullpen probables  Edge to the under

NY YANKEES are 20-8 UNDER in road games when playing on Saturday over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 7.1 rpg scored. NY YANKEE L/8 games   as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 3 seasons has seen a combined average of 7.6 rpg scored. 

NY YANKEES L/102 night games over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined aerage of 8 rpg scored. .

MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (NYY/HOUSTON) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 63-24 UNDER with a combined average of 7.6 rpg scored. 

Play to the under

The first two games of this series saw 10 runs per games scored (both tilts) and Im projecting on the magic of 3 to hit for us today, based on the pitcher/bullpen/batting lineup projections. 

TAMPA BAY is 16-5 OVER at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 10.5 rpg scored. TAMPA BAY is 21-7 OVER (+13.0 Units) in home games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 9.8 rpg scored. 

MLB team (TORONTO) - off a loss by 6 runs or more to a division rival, first 12 games of the season, playoff team from prior season who lost their last 3 games are 41-13 L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 11.1 rpg scored. 

Play over

Los Angeles, their first three pitchers gave up a combined nine earned runs in the Thursday game but my projections estimate a   much better all around effort here today from the pitching staff (starter/bullpen). Meanwhile, on offense the  Angels could only squeeze out couple of hits and three walks, and my early season projections estimate more production problems against the Orioles starters/bullpen. Edge to the under.

BALTIMORE is 31-18 UNDER  at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.6 rpg scored. 

MLB eam (BALTIMORE) - good team from last season, outscored opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game, after scoring 9 runs or more are 33-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversin rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in 7.5 rpg. 

Play under

Rodon/Javier expected starters- my projections estimate we have value with an under wager between two stop tier sides.  NY YANKEES are 49-30 UNDER  as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 7.6 rpg scored. 

HOUSTON is 24-8 UNDER when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 7.7 rpg scored.  BOONE is 36-22 UNDER ( as a road underdog of +125 to +175 as the manager of NY YANKEES with a combined average of 7.9 rpg scored. 

MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (/HOUSTON/NY YANKEES) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 61-24 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate with a combined average of 7.5 rpg scored.

Play under

Im betting we have some runline value with this game based on my projections. Note:BELLO is 2-0 when starting against SEATTLE in his career with an ERA of 4.09 and a WHIP of 1.636.

SERVAIS is 55-58  against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 as the manager of SEATTLE with a just a 0.2 rpg diff advantage. 

MLB team against a 1.5 run line (BOSTON) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 14+ losses in last 20 games, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games are 35-13 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on boston +1.5 runline 

Dodgers took part in a high scoring affair last time out ( week ago) where 26 combined runs were scored and now Im betting on immediate regression. This Cards first game of the regular season, and facing a top tier pitcher in Glasnow projects to be average at best production event. 

Dodgers starter GLASNOW iin his last 18 appearances  as a favorite of -175 to -250 . (Team's Record) has seen a combined score of 6.1 rpg scored. 

Cards expected starter MIKOLAS is 9-1 UNDER   on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.5 rpg scored. 

MLB team (LA DODGERS) - good team from last season, outscored opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game, after scoring 9 runs or more are 33-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

Texas Starter Eovaldi allowed five runs on six hits in 4 2/3 innings in Game 1, which Texas won 6-5 in 11 innings. He fanned eight and walked one. In eight career regular-season appearances (five starts) against the Diamondbacks, Eovaldi is 3-0 with a 2.78 ERA. EOVALDI is 12-1 against the money line vs. good base-running teams - averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game in his carrer. (Team's Record) EOVALDI is 11-2   against the money line in playoff games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Texas,  owns a  record 10-0 on the road in the postseason and matchup well here vs Dbacks starter  Zac Gallen who owns a 6.75 ERA in his L/3 play off starts.

ARIZONA is 4-18 against the money line in home games against AL West opponents over the last 3 seasons.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base, with a tired bullpen - throwing 13+ innings over the last 3 games are 57-28 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Advantage Texas 

Max Scherzer  is still not 100% after returning from a shoulder injury. He pitched 4 innings in his return, allowing  five earned runs in an 8-5 loss to the Astros. In his  second trip to the hill there was no improvement as he only lasted 2.2 innings while giving uo  four hits and two runs.Scherzer's 9.45 postseason ERA does not give me much hope for improvement vs a Texas team that has been explosive on the road in the play offs averaging 6.5 rpg in offense. Meanwhile, despite of Dbacks starter  B. Pfaadt having a good post season, it still must be recognized that has a 5.23 regular season ERA overall t and a 5.29 ERA at home. Five of the 6 games between these sides went over this season and Im betting on this one eclipsing the total as well. 

Texas has allowed  an average of 6.1 rpg in their L/7 play off games.

SCHERZER is 8-1 OVER (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.9 rpg scored. 

Play over

In a series like this Im betting pitching trumps offense , and entering this game the Dbacks pitching has been out standing during the post season  as was the case against the explosive offense of the Phillies . Here against another top tier offense, Im betting the Dbacks once again have the edge. Aslo considering the struggles of the Rangers at home in the play offs it will not be a hard decision to take the underdog on a value moneyline offering in this spot play. ARIZONA is 9-3 against the money line in playoff games this season

TEXAS is 7-15 against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse this season.

TEXAS is 9-24  against the money line in home games after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Home teams (TEXAS) - very good offensive team - scoring 5.4  or more runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent good offensive team - scoring 4.5 or more  runs/game on the season (NL) are just 20-38 L/5 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Arizona Dbacks to win 

Houstons starter Javier (2-0, 1.69 ERA this postseason). The righty  allowed two runs on three hits and one walk with three strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings in the Astros' 8-5 victory in Game 3. Javier had not allowed a run in his three previous postseason starts and improved to 4-0 with a 0.82 ERA as a starter in the postseason. Meanwhile, Scherzer the Rangers starter who had been sidelined with a muscle strain in his shoulder did not look good upon his return and is fade material here as I believe he is not 100%. Im betting the Rangers undefeated record on the road in the play offs comes to end tonight. 

In the history of best-of-7 MLB playoff series, teams such as the Texas Rangers trailing 3-games-2 but winning Game 6 on the road by 7+ runs had a Game 7 record of 2-4; the two victories were by the St. Louis Cardinals over the New York Yankees in the 1926 World Series, and by the Detroit Tigers over the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1968 World Series.

 MLBRoad teams (TEXAS) - AL team with a high slugging percentage (.440 or better ) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or better), struggling hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 20 games are 19-45 L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Astros to win 

Astros starter VALDEZ is 10-0 OVER   vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 11.6 rpg scored. The Astros left-hander Framber Valdez (0-2, 11.57 ERA this postseason) and here against a desperate group of Rangers who can light things up when under pressure Im betting he continues his futility. Meanwhile, The Rangers will respond with right-hander Nathan Eovaldi (3-0, 2.29), who limited the Astros to three runs on five hits and one walk with nine strikeouts over six innings in Game 2. He did pitch well against them in that tilt, but this is a resilient Astros offense that adjusts well and must not be discounted in their abilities to put runs on the board in a tilt that Im betting will be a higher scoring event that eclipses this total. 

TEXAS is 11-1 OVER  after a 5 game span with an OBP of .285 or worse this season with a combined average of 12.5 rpg scored. 

BAKER is 23-9 OVER  vs. an AL team with an slugging percentage of .440 or better in the second half of the season as the manager of HOUSTON with a combined 12.2 rpg scored. 

MLB Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (TEXAS) - after being swept in a 3 game series by a division rival, good team, winning 54-62% or more of their games on the season are 38-10 OVER L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play over

The Diamondbacks' Zac Gallen (17-9, 3.47 ERA regular season; 2-1, 4.96 postseason) will go against the Phillies' Zack Wheeler (13-6, 3.61 regular season; 2-0, 2.37) .

The Dbacks have momentum entering game 5 of this series as they won yesterday 6-5 to tie this series. The energy surrounding the Dbacks right now is very positive and Im willing to ride that wave here on a value line.

In the postseason, Gallen defeated the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers before losing at Philadelphia. He is 3-1 with a 2.22 in five career regular-season starts against the Phillies. Dbacks starter GALLEN is 11-1  against the money line in home games in night games this season. (Team's Record) GALLEN is 23-8 against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)GALLEN is 23-8  against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

ARIZONA is 19-11 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better this season like Wheeler. WHEELER is 8-12  against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)

PHILADELPHIA is 9-20  against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse this season.

ARIZONA is 15-3  against the money line after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings this season.

MLB  Road teams (PHILADELPHIA) - with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 5 games, in October games are 10-38 L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.100 or less over his last 10 games are 11-29 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Diamondbacks to win 

Justin Verlander (13-8, 3.22) takes on Rangers' lefty Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.20).

Houston offense, has been extremely productive Globe Life Field. The Astros are 8-1 when visiting Texas in 2023 and are averaging nine runs in the nine meetings. Houston has scored 69 runs in its past six games in Arlington and Im betting nothing changes here today.I know Texas left-hander Jordan Montgomery shut out the Astros in game 1 of this series, but the Astros offense has shown great resilience in the past, and have made adjustments on the run, and Im betting thats what they do here as they finally get to Montgomery.  Note: The Astros are undefeated on the road in the playoffs and had the best road record in baseball this season and should roll here once again in a ball park that they thrive in. 

Play on Houston to win 

Astros starter URQUIDY is 13-3  against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) URQUIDY is 5-0  in his career when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 2.82 and a WHIP of 0.761. and gets my support here again. 

The Astros have scored 59 runs in their last five road games against the Texas Rangers after yesterdays 8 run and output and Im betting more explosive is on the way. 

TEXAS is 9-22 against the money line in home games after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival over the last 2 seasons

HOUSTON is 7-1  against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 5.4 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season.  HOUSTON is 16-3  against the money line in road games vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game in the second half of the season this season.HOUSTON is 30-14 against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - very good offensive team (5.4 or more runs/game) against an average starter (ERA  4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after allowing 8 runs or more are 10-33 L/26 seasons for a go against for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Houston to win 

Texas  right-hander Max Scherzer (13-7, 3.77 ERA regular season), who is making his first start since Sept. 12 after sustaining a major muscle strain in his pitching shoulder. Im sure Scherzer velocity will be down and rust could easily see him beaten around by a Rangers offense that could at any time explode for a boatload full of runs. Meanwhile, Astros starter Javier hasn't allowed a run in three career postseason starts. The right-hander has allowed two hits in 16 1/3 innings in those starts, including a top tier  six innings  no-hitter against the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 4 of last year's World Series.Javier, will be making his second start of this postseason. He defeated the Minnesota Twins in Game 3 of the AL Division Series, when he allowed one hit in five scoreless innings. Javier, who is 5-1 with a 1.91 ERA in 15 postseason appearances and get my support here today. JAVIER is 10-1  against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) JAVIER is 10-1 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. (Team's Record) AVIER is 8-0  against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season. (Team's Record)

HOUSTON is 9-0  against the money line in road games revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite this season. 

HOUSTON is 8-1 against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season. HOUSTON is 8-1  against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road teams (HOUSTON) - ice cold hitting team - batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 15 games are 40-16 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate.

Play on the Houston Astros to win 

Arizona lost game 1 of this series by a 5-3 count and Im betting they will lose this game as well vs what my power rankings suggest is the superior side. Phillies have won 17 of their L/24 overall play off games, and have now won 3 straight post season games by 2 or more runs. I know Dbacks Kely is a quality hurler, but the Phillies sometimes explosive batting order can make the best of pitchers look ordinary as was the case in game one of this series vs Zac Gallen. Also it must be noted that the Phillies pitching staff is also in top form and have not allowed more than 3 runs and 6 of their L/7 tilts.  With that said, Phillies starter Nola won Game 3 of the NLDS last Wednesday, when he allowed two runs over 5 2/3 innings in the Phillies' 10-2 victory. He is 4-2 with a 3.76 ERA in seven career postseason starts. Momementum resides in the City of Brotherly Love. 

MLB Home favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +115 to +160) (PHILADELPHIA) - good offensive team (4.7 or more  runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or more ) (NL), with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games and 49-30 L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. 

Play on Philadelphia -1.5 runline 

Previous to yesterdays 2-0 loss to the Rangers Houston smashed  out  30 home runs against Texas  in the 13 reg season  games they played against  them this season  including 25 in the last seven  regular season matchups in this series. Im betting they  bounce back here today and continue that trend  against upstart Texas bullpen  that ranked 24th this season in MLB. . Previous to yesterdays muted offensive effort from the Astros they crushed  the ball in the post season and  accumulated 10 home runs in the four-game series with Minnesota. HOUSTON is 33-18 OVER  vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season with a combined 10  rpg scored.    BAKER is 20-89OVER   vs. an AL team with a slugging percentage of .440 or better in the second half of the season as the manager of HOUSTON. TEXAS is 11-2 OVER  after shutting out their opponent this season with a combined average of 13 rpg scored. 

Astros starter VALDEZ is 9-0 OVER   vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 11.9 rpg scored. 

BOCHY is 34-17 OVER (+16.4 Units) in road games after allowing 1 run or less 2 straight games in all games with a combined average of 9.6 rpg scored. 

Play on the over

MLB  teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (TEXAS) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games, in October games are 48-21 OVER L/ 5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the over 

 Houston smashed  out  30 home runs against the Rangers in the 13 games they played against this season  including 25 in the last seven matchups in this series. Im betting they continue that trend today against Montgomery and the banged up and  exhausted Rangers bullpen that ranked 24th this season in MLB. . The Astros'  continue to pound the ball in the post season and  have accumulated 10 home runs in the four-game series with Minnesota. HOUSTON is 33-17 OVER  vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season with a combined 10.5 rpg scored. HOUSTON is 37-26 OVER  at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season with a combined average of 9.2 rpg.  BAKER is 20-8 OVER   vs. an AL team with an slugging percentage of .440 or better in the second half of the season as the manager of HOUSTON.

On the flips side, Texas ha averaged 5.3 rpg vs right handed pitchers like Verlander adn their offense has come to life recently scoring 18 runs in their L/2 games entering this tilt and must not be discounted in their ability to respond to the Astros today . TEXAS is 43-26 OVER  when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.

Play on the over

Philadelphia starter SUAREZ is 7-0  against the money line in playoff games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)SUAREZ is 24-8  against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

Strider the Braves starter is 0-2 record in two playoff starts against the Phillies, along with an ERA of 5.79.

THOMSON is 18-7  against the money line in October games as the manager of PHILADELPHIA.

MLB Road teams (ATLANTA) - very good NL offensive team (5.0 or more runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or less), in October games are 12-37 L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Phillies

I know these two starting pitchers LAs Lynn and Arizonas Pfaadt  have some hefty ERAs, but both are still viable pitchers and have strong support from their respective bullpens. PFAADT is 12-3 UNDER  when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.9. rpg scored. Lynn is 6-1 lifetime against the Diamondbacks with a 2.96 ERA in 14 appearances (12 starts).

LA DODGERS are 11-2 UNDER  vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.40 or worse this season with a combined average of 8.6 rpg going on the board.

ARIZONA is 14-5 UNDER   when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 7.2 rpg scored. ARIZONA is 22-9 UNDER   in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 8.1 rpg. 

Arizona is 2-7-1 UNDER L/10 games.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 65 of their last 121 games (+12.35 Units / 9% ROI)

MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (LA DODGERS) - excellent power team (1.5 or more  HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 1or more HR's/start against opponent starting a pitcher who walked 1 or less hitters each of his last 2 outings are 33-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the under

Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 1.35 ERA) will start Game 3 for the Rangers

Rangers starter EOVALDI is 19-5  against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) EOVALDI is 11-2   against the money line in playoff games since 1997. (Team's Record)

Os Right-hander Dean Kremer (13-5, 4.12 ERA regular season) gets the ball for the Orioles. Im sure he has butterflies as he prepares for his biggest start of his life.Kremer, lost to Texas on May 27 when he gave up three runs and five hits over 6 1/3 innings. Overall, he's 0-1 with a 5.17 ERA in three career starts versus the Rangers and according to my power rankings does matchup well vs this explosive Rangers offense. 

TEXAS is 20-6 against the money line after scoring 10 runs or more this season.

TEXAS is 24-12  against the money line against AL East opponents this season.

MLB  underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (BALTIMORE) - starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest, after a game where the bullpen threw 7 or more innings. are 8-37 L/5 seasons for a go against  82% conversion rate. 

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BALTIMORE) - poor hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less) -AL, ice cold hitting team - batting .200 or worse over their last 5 games. are 11-30 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Texas to win 

 The Diamondbacks used a six-run first inning against Dodgers legend Clayton Kershaw in Game 1, scoring five of those runs before making their first out of the evening, to earn an 11-2 victory on Saturday and its now bounce back time for a now wide awake Dodgers team.

Dbacks starter Gallen gave up five earned runs in a start seven times this season and two were against the Dodgers, including Aug. 28 at Los Angeles where he allowed   career-worst four homers whike serving up  six runs in a 7-4 loss. That came during a three-game sweep by the Dodgers when the D-backs were outscored 23-5. My power rankings suggest Gallen does not matchup well here vs a explosive Dodgers batting order.

Dodgers starter Miller faced the D-backs twice this season and went 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in 12 innings.

LA DODGERS are 15-3  against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher  like Gallen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better this season with the average rpg diff clicking in at +4.3 which qualifies on this runline offering. LA DODGERS are 17-3  against the money line after allowing 9 runs or more this season with the average rpg diff clicking in at +3.5 which easily qualifies on this runline offering. 

ARIZONA is 2-15  against the money line in road games off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with the average rpg diff registering in at -3.2 which qualifies on this run line offering. 

MLB. Home favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +115 to +160) (LA DODGERS) - very good offensive team (5.0 or more runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or better ) (NL), with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season are 35-15 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate with the average rpg diff clicking in at +3. 

Play on LA Dodgers to win -1.5 

Left-hander Max Fried (8-1, 2.55 ERA regular season) will start for the Braves against Philadelphia right-hander Zack Wheeler (1-0, 1.35 this postseason). Fried started once against Philadelphia this season and allowed one run in five innings during a no-decision. Wheeler has pitched well against the Braves this season, but are an explosive offensive side that will eventually figure opposing pitchers out, and that is what Im betting on tonight. ATLANTA is 20-3  against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher  like Wheeler whose WHIP is 1.150 or better this season.

FRIED is 24-9 ( against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) FRIED is 22-7  against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 in his career (Team's Record)

MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (ATLANTA) - good offensive team (4.7 or more  runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70) or less  (NL), with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games are 91-31 L/5 seams for a 75% conversion rate!

MLB- Road teams (PHILADELPHIA) - cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 15 games, in October games are 17-51 L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Atlanta to win 

Texas won the opener of the best-of-five series 3-2 over top-seeded Baltimore on Saturday for their third straight post season road win. But Im betting the run ends today. 

Rangers starter MONTGOMERY is 10-21  against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record) MONTGOMERY is 3-10  against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) MONTGOMERY is 0-7  against the money line after giving up no earned runs last outing this season. (Team's Record) BALTIMORE is 37-18  against the money line against left-handed starters this season.

Note: Orioles starter Rodriguez since returning from the minors in July was  5-2 along  with a very respectable  2.58 ERA in 13 starts . According to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings matches up well here vs Montgomery and company. 

BALTIMORE is 17-6  against the money line after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.

MLB Home teams (BALTIMORE) - with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games, in October games are 76-29 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - very good offensive team (5.4 or more  runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 4.70)-AL, after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less are just 12-31 L/26 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Baltimore to win 

Phillies starter SUAREZ is 6-0  against the money line in playoff games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)Suarez, has previously faced this Atlanta batting order  in the postseason, having allowed one run on three hits in 3 1/3 innings of a no-decision in Game 1 of the 2022 NLDS. He posted a 2-0 record with a 1.23 ERA and a save in five appearances (three starts) during the postseason and I m backing him today. Note:Suarez allowed just one run on four hits and struck out seven over six innings in a no-decision against Atlanta on June 20. On the flipside I know  Atlantas starter Strider was 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA in four starts this season against  the Phillies , but all good and bad runs must come to an end. 

ATLANTA is 5-12 against the money line in home games when playing in the 1rst game of a playoff series since 1997. 

PHILADELPHIA is 7-0  against the money line in road games when playing in the 1rst game of a playoff series since 1997.PHILADELPHIA is 16-6   against the money line in October games over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Philadelphia 

AMERICAN League Playoffs - LDS - Best Of 5 - Game 1

Justin Verlander (13-8) is the starter  in game 1 of this series for  the Houston Astros. The Minnesota Twins have yet to name a starting pitcher for this tilt. 

Houston,  is rested but rusty after getting a bye in the first round  as they smash and grabbed  the AL West from the Rangers on the final day of the regular season. Before sweeping their last three tilts, the Astros  were in a funk  recording a sub par 13-14 record over their final 27 games any may.not be the perennial favorite vs the Twins. I know the the Astros are the defending World Series champions , so they get alot of respect, but here in game 1 they look vulnerable considering their late season form. It must also be noted that the Twins have a deep starting five -quality starters (Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Kenta Maeda) that can definitely keep them in this series. Also from. a offensive perspective Minnesota had the league’s highest OPS over the month of September and  are capable of keeping up with the Astros vaunted attack. We have to remember that Minny took 4 of 6 from the astros this season and are viable underdogs here in game 1. 

The Twins are not favored for the first time in a while, as they have not been listed as underdogs in their last 10 trips to the diamonds. 

This year, Minnesota has won four of 10 games when listed as at least +132 or worse on the moneyline.

 HOUSTON is 4-9  against the money line in home games revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite of -150 or more this season. HOUSTON is 13-22 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MINNESOTA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 52-27 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Minnesota to win 

The Phillies Im betting get the  series sweep when they host the Miami Marlins in Game 2 of a wild-card series on Wednesday. Philadelphia took the opener of the best-of-three set 4-1 on Tuesday and my projections make them strong favs for a convincing victory tonight. My power rankings suggest Braxton Garrett, a f hurler who has never pitched in the playoffs and went 9-7 with a 3.66 ERA in 31 games (30 starts) this season does not matchup well here vs this explosive Phillies batting order. In yesterdays win every Philadelphia player in the starting lineup had at least one hit of the team's 11 total hits. Rinse and repeat here today.

MLB Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (PHILADELPHIA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (NL), in October games are 30-10 L/26 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Philadelphia to win -1.5 runline 

Blue Jays right-hander Jose Berrios will take the mound in Game 2. He went 11-12 with a 3.65 ERA in 32 starts this season and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not match up favorably vs Minnesotas batting order. Meanwhile, Gray the Twins starter  finished strong down the stretch, recording  a stingy 1.54 ERA in his final seven starts of the regular season. He walked five and struck out 36 in 41 innings and gets my support here. TORONTO is 6-14  against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.40 or better this season.

MLB  underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TORONTO) - with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 5 games, in October games are 5-31 L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Minnesota to win 

Minnesota has a record of 67-44, a 60.4% win rate, when favored by -113 or more by bookmakers this season and once again according to my own projections have the edge in this tilt vs the Blue Jays. It must be noted despite of the talent the Jays have in their batting order they have for the most part failed to live up to expectations and are lucky to be in this position as their offense has a collective .256 batting average (just barely above the Mendoza line), and rank seventh in the league with 1422 total hits and 14th in MLB with 746 runs scored. It has the 13th-ranked slugging percentage (.416) and ranks 16th in home runs (188) in all of MLB.

Torontos starter GAUSMAN is 15-22  against the money line against AL Central opponents in his career. (Team's Record) GAUSMAN is 1-4 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 6.35 and a WHIP of 1.500.

 MINNESOTA is 23-5  against the money line in home games after a game where their bullpen blew a save over the last 2 seasons which was the case last time out. 

MINNESOTA is 44-22  against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road teams (TORONTO) - with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 5 games, in October games are 8-34 L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to win 

The Rays have entered the game as favorites 130 times this season and won 86, or 66.2%, of those games and my projections estimate they deserve their fav status here today vs a Rangers side, that has been highly inconsistent since the all star break.

Note: Glasnow the Rays right-hander starter today is off  five scoreless innings  while surrendering just  two hits.In 21 games this season,  he has put up an ERA of 3.60, with 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .209 against him and he once again looks to help his team find the W column in the opening game of this post season tilt. I know the Rangers can light up the scoreboard when in form, but it must be noted that the Rays are among the highest-scoring teams in the majors, ranking fourth with 860 total runs this season.

MLB Home teams (TAMPA BAY) - with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games, in October games are 75-28 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

MLB Road teams (TEXAS) - ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games, in October games are 11-43 L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the TB Rays to win 

The Orioles (100-60) had won five in a row before losing 3-0 on Friday, a night after they clinched the American League East title with a 2-0 victory over the Red Sox. They were obviously in a emotional letdown situation in that game , and will be primed to get the win here as they do not want to enter the play offs in a losing mode.QUOTE: "It was a big night for us (Thursday) night, and we just didn't play our best baseball (on Friday), and those things happen," Hyde said. "Hopefully, we'll rebound and play a better game." END QUOTE

Baltimores starter GIBSON is 15-6  against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season. (Team's Record) GIBSON is 22-11  against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

MLB Home teams (BALTIMORE) - with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season (AL), after a combined score of 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 29-9 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Road teams (BOSTON) - after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games against opponent after a combined score of 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 16-43 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Orioles to win

The Toronto Blue Jays can clinch a wild-card spot and win their three-game series versus the visiting Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday afternoon.

Tampa Bay already has a wild card spot in the play offs and now just want to make sure their lineup is healthy entering the post season. Meanwhile, the Jays still need to guarantee their post season appearance with a victory and will be ready to play all out baseball to get there.

The Blue Jays are scheduled to start left-hander Hyun Jin Ryu (3-3, 3.31 ERA) on Saturday.

The Rays are scheduled to open with right-handed reliever Shawn Armstrong (1-0, 1.41 ERA). In 18 career relief outings against Toronto, he is 0-0 with an 8.31 ERA. The Blue Jays got to him for two runs on four hits in just one-third of an inning on Sept. 23 and according to my pitcher vs batting order match up well against him. This will be a bullpen game for the Rays, and players will be rested so the advantage goes to the more motivated side.

Play on Toronto to win 

Cleveland starter QUANTRILL is 11-1  against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) QUANTRILL is 18-8   against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Quantrill threw six shutout innings at Detroit in a vwin on April 19. He is 3-2 with a 2.82 ERA in nine career outings against the Tigers, including six starts

Meanwhile, Left-hander Joey Wentz (3-12, 6.45 ERA) will start the series opener for Detroit. He pitched well against the Guardians this season in two starts, but Im betting the Guardians will have him figured out in the third starts a charm scenario. 

This baseball group from Motown has been playing better of late, but that has not been a recipe for success this season as DETROIT is 4-13  against the money line in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.

DETROIT is 13-25 against the money line in home games in night games this season.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CLEVELAND) - after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base, playing on Friday are 57-18 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Home teams (DETROIT) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season (AL), playing on Friday are 14-36 L/5 seasons for a for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cleveland Guardians to win 

The Rockies when playing at home, area dangerous underdog opponent. Coors Field is a wild card environment, and that was evident when Colorado took game one of this series as close +200 underdogs. Im once again betting on the spoilers giving the Dodgers all they can handle today making the runline a viable investment option. 

MLB Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (LA DODGERS) - very good offensive team (5.0 or more  runs/game) against a poor starting pitcher (ERA 5.70 or more ) (NL), starting a pitcher who gave up 2 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are 11-39 L/26 seasons for a go against  78% conversion rate.

Play on Colorado +1.5 runline 

Astros starter JAVIER is 11-2  against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) JAVIER is 9-0  against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season. (Team's Record)

George Kirby the Mariners starter has slowed considerably of late, after a decent campaign, as is evident by a 5.16 ERA in his L/3 starts. With Houston averaging 5.8 rpg on the road this season, the Astros look like viable bets here today behind Javier going against Kirby. 

Both bullpens are viable, so the staring p[itching and offensive production considerations are what have me on the Astros. 

HOUSTON is 33-14 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. HOUSTON is 8-2 against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season.

SEATTLE is 8-14  against the money line in September games this season.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (HOUSTON) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 51-26 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Houston to win 

 The Diamondbacks will give the ball to right-hander Zach Davies (2-5, 6.81 ERA).  Davies has not pitched more than four innings in any of his past three starts. His ERA was 7.11 on June 18, and it has not gone below 6.37 since then. He is fade material in his current form, and is being over rated here on this RL line offering. In two career starts against the White Sox, Davies is 0-1 with a 10.57 ERA. He gave up nine runs on 13 hits in 7 2/3 innings during those tilts. I know the White Sox Urena has not pitched much better, but it must be noted that the Dbacks  are  0-6   against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.90 or worse over the last 3 seasons.

ARIZONA is 1-11 ) against the money line vs. poor defensive catchers - allowing 0.85 + SB's/game in the second half of the season this season.

MLB Home underdogs against a 1.5 run line (CHI WHITE SOX) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA  6.50 or more  over his last 10 starts are 63-17 L/26 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago White Sox on the +1.5 runline 

The pitching matchup in the series opener features Atlanta right-hander Bryce Elder (12-4, 3.63) against Chicago lefty Justin Steele (16-5, 3.00). Steele has been beaten around   in his last two outings, giving up six runs in each start. He lasted only three innings and allowed six runs on eight hits in his most recent start last Wednesday against the  Pittsburgh Pirates  and is fade material here in his current form.   

ATLANTA is 24-8  against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season like Steele. 

CHICAGO CUBS are 3-10 against the money line in road games against NL East opponents this season

MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (ATLANTA) - good offensive team ( 4.7 or more  runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70) (NL), with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games are 93-31 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to win

After yesterdays 13-12 slugfest Im betting on immediate offensive regression here in a game with huge post season implications for the Reds. CINCINNATI is 15-4 UNDER  after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs over the last 2 seasons. CINCINNATI is 21-8 UNDER  as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season.

MLB Road teams where the total is 10 or higher (PITTSBURGH) - after having won 4 of their last 5 games, a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) playing a winning team are 55-19 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate.

Play under

Pittsburgh (74-81) rallied from a 9-0 deficit on Saturday, putting up 13 consecutive runs from the fourth into the eighth inning in a wild, 13-12 final and have momentum coming into this tilt in the spoilers role. Note:  Reds starter Brandon Williamson (4-5, 4.56 ERA) will start Sunday . The rookie left-hander has not posted a win since striking out nine over 6 2/3 innings against Miami on Aug. 7 and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here today.

CINCINNATI is 0-8  against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season this season. 

CINCINNATI is 0-6  against the money line in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season.

 is 1-8  against the money line in home games after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 6.50 or worse this season.

CINCINNATI is 1-10 against the money line after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 7.00 or worse this season. 

MLB team (CINCINNATI) - after allowing 10 runs or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 2 runs or less are 17-36 L/5 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate.

Play on Pirates to win

Woodruff  in limited action has been brilliant  this season -- 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA. In  his past five starts, Woodruff is 3-0 with a 1.06 ERA and in three career starts against the Marlins, he is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA. Rinse and repeat here vs a Marlins side that is slumping as is evident by three losses in their past four games. They also have lost four of five matchups with the Brewers over the past two weeks and Im betting on them adding to those negative numbers today.

MILWAUKEE is 22-15  against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. MILWAUKEE is 38-18  against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season.

MIAMI is 16-37 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Home teams (MIAMI) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs are 53-109 L/26 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to win

 Rookie right-hander Bryce Miller (8-5, 3.88 ERA) will start the opener for Seattle.Miller is winless over his past five starts and has looked fatigued on occasion. Meanwhile, Right-hander Dane Dunning (10-6, 3.78) will go to the hill  for Texas. He gave up six hits in five shutout innings during a no-decision against the Cleveland Guardians on Saturday and enters this tilt in good form. Dunning won vs the the Mariners on May 10 when he gave up two runs and six hits over six innings and gets my support here tonight. 

TEXAS is 19-6 against the money line after scoring 10 runs or more this season.(Beat Boston 15-5 last time out)

SEATTLE is 8-20  against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season this season

MLB Home teams (TEXAS) - good power team - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game on the season, after a combined score of 20 runs or more are 89-40 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

 MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SEATTLE) - after 2 straight games where they committed no errors against opponent after a game they hit 4 or more home runs are 32-85 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Texas to win 

Baltimore took out Houston yesterday by a 9-5 count and are viable options to do the same again today. The Astros dropped to 38-39 at home with four games left on the home schedule.

Orioles starter BRADISH is 10-0  against the money line against AL West opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) BRADISH is 15-4  against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. (Team's Record)  BRADISH is 11-4 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Bradish is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA over two career starts against the Astros. The righty went  eight scoreless innings against Houston on Aug. 26, 2022, then he garnered another 8 2/3 shutout frames vs. the Astros on Sept. 22, 2022. Bradish has allowed just four hits and two walks while striking out 16 in those outings.

The flipside, Houstons starter Javier went 2-0 in five starts in August despite  of garnering  6.17 ERA and .922 opponents' OPS with 16 walks and 16 strikeouts in 23 1/3 innings. In his current form he is fade material agains this type of sometimes explosive offense.

HOUSTON is 3-8  against the money line in home games in September games this season.

BALTIMORE is 12-2  against the money line in road games against AL West opponents this season.BALTIMORE is 9-4  against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season this season.

Play on Baltimore to win 

Colorado has allowed 22 runs in their L/2 games, and with their bullpen showing exhaustion Im betting they get pummeled again vs a Padres offense that come to life of late as is evident by average 7.6 rpg in their L/7 trips to the diamonds. Considering the Rockies bats have also looked alert in recent games averaging 7 rpg in their L/7 games Im betting we see a fairly high scoring affair. 

COLORADO is 7-0 OVER  in road games vs. an NL team with a batting average of .245 or worse in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 13.1 rpg scored. COLORADO is 24-12 OVER  after allowing 7 runs or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 11.4 rpg scorecd. 

SAN DIEGO is 37-21 OVER   after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 9.4 rpg scored. 

Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (COLORADO) - allowing 5.5 or more runs/game on the season (NL), after allowing 9 runs or more 2 straight games are 33-7 OVER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the over

Los Angeles (68-82)  without their injured star Shohei Ohtani are fade material in their current form. 

Halos starter SANDOVAL is 1-11  against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)

LA ANGELS are 14-31 SU when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season with the average rpg diff clicking in -2.3 . 

LA ANGELS are 9-20 SU after a 5 game span with an OBP of .285 or worse this season with the average rpg diff reregistering in at -2.9. 

TAMPA BAY is 18-3  SU vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season with the 3.6 rpg diff .TAMPA BAY is 37-11  against the money line as a home favorite of -150 or more this season with the average rpg diff clicking in at +2.3 which easily qualifies on this runline offering from the books.

MLB underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +110 to +155) (LA ANGELS) - poor hitting team (AVG .260 or less ) against an average starting pitcher (ERA 4.70 to 5.70) -AL, with a slugging percentage of .350 or worse over their last 5 games are 38-8 L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with the a rpg diff of +3.1. 

Play on the Tampa Bay Rays to win -1.5 runline 

Milwaukees starter PERALTA is 16-2 OVER  in road games after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing in his career. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 12 rpg scored.  (Peralta allowed one run on two hits in 6 1/3 innings in a 3-1 victory over the Miami Marlins last Tuesday)

PERALTA is 1-5 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 6.80 and a WHIP of 1.580.

Cards starter Wainwright (4-11, 7.95 ERA) picked up victory in his last out in the Cardinals' 5-2 victory over the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday. However, prior to that he went 0-10 with a 10.72 ERA.MILWAUKEE is 12-1 OVER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.40 or worse over the last 2 seasons like Wainwright with 12.5 rpg going on the board. Wainwright owns a bloated 7.95 ERA on the season, and looks to be worn out entering this game, giving credence to what Im betting will be a fairly high scoring game right out of the gate. 

Play over

OAKLAND is 13-0 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.750 or worse since 1997 like San Diegos starter Martinez who currently owns a 1.935 WHIP on the season overall. 

SAN DIEGO is 31-42  against the money line in road games this season.

Oakland is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games and Im betting they keep it close today or pull of the ML underdog upset. The safest high probability bet at the most viable price is to take the run-line. 

Play on the As to cover +1.5 on the runline 

After yesterdays 3-0 loss to the Blue Jays the BoSox have now lost 8 of their L/10 games and are fade material in their current form. Yesterday the Jays snapped a 4 games losing streak and now have some momentum on their sides and with Bassit who owns a 2.55 ERA in his L/3 starts  on the hill have an edge over Boston starter Sale and a bullpen that is sub par as is evident by a 4.34 ERA on the season.

Note: Bassitt is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA vs the BoSox and his career. He beat the Red Sox on Aug. 6 after throwing seven innings of one-run ball.

SALE is 17-24  against the money line in September games since 1997. (Team's Record)

BOSTON is 12-40 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. BOSTON is 3-17   against the money line in road games after 9 consecutive games versus division rivals over the last 3 seasons.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BOSTON) - revenging a same season 3 game sweep at the hands of their opponents, a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a winning team are 6-29 L/26 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Toronto to win 

Left-hander David Peterson (3-8, 5.34 ERA) is slated to start for the Mets against right-hander Hunter Greene (4-6, 4.43). Greene returned from the COVID-19 injured list on Sunday, and he earned the win after allowing just an unearned run on one hit over six innings in the Reds' 7-1 victory over the visiting St. Louis Cardinals and has momentum entering this tilt as gives the Reds the advantage here today.

CINCINNATI is 11-2  against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.

NY METS are 4-11  against the money line in home games after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games this season

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CINCINNATI) - after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base, playing on Friday are 56-18 L/5 seasons for a76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cincinnati Reds to win 

In the opener, New York right-hander Gerrit Cole (13-4, 2.79 ERA) is scheduled to oppose Pittsburgh right-hander Johan Oviedo (8-14, 4.34). My projections estimate that the Yankees will score 5 plus runs and the Pirates 3 plus runs which gives us an edge on an over ticket cashing here today. 

PITTSBURGH is 11-3 OVER  in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season with a combined average of 9.8 rpg scored. PITTSBURGH is 16-4 OVER   after a game with a combined score of 4 runs or less this season with a combined average of 10.4 rpg scored.

BOONE is 20-8 OVER  vs. an NL team with an slugging percentage .400 or worse in the second half of the season as the manager of NY YANKEES with a combined average of 9.3 rpg scorec.

MLB road teams (NY YANKEES) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less) against an average NL starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.100 or better over his last 10 games are 44-9 OVER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. 

Play on the over

Padres starter SNELL is 10-18  against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) SNELL is 14-25  against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Snell has had a strong season, but the Dodgers can make the best of pitcher look average. Im betting that will be the situation today. Snell has lost 2 of 3 starts vs the dodgers this season. 

LA DODGERS are 26-9  against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season. LA DODGERS are 21-8  against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA DODGERS) - good offensive team (4.7 or more runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.00 or better ) (NL), starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are 70-38 L/26 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Dodgers to win 

After taking it on the chin yesterday by a 11-8 count Im betting the Dodgers come back with a big time bounce back effort today vs the Padres. 

LA DODGERS are 40-17  against the money line after a loss this season. LA DODGERS are 15-3  against the money line after allowing 9 runs or more this season.

LA DODGERS are 34-12 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better over the last 2 seasons like the Padres starter Wacha. 

MLB  favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (LA DODGERS) - good offensive team (4.7 or more  runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or better ) (NL), with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games are 88-30 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LAD to win

Padres Pedro Avila goes to the hill. The righty is  1-2 with a 2.19 ERA and 38 strikeouts this season. Avila is 0-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 10 strikeouts in his career against the Dodgers and matches up well here. Avila just pitched 6.2 scoreless innings against the PadresThe Padres pitching staff is 4th in ERA (3.86), 16th in WHIP (1.29) and 4th in quality starts (66).

On the flip side, G.Stone despite of not pitching well goes against, a Padres offense that is highly inconsistent, as is evident , by a  offense that  is ranked in  17th in runs per game (4.55), 22nd in batting average (.242).

Everything points to a lower scoring affair. 

SAN DIEGO is 7-0 UNDER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better this season with a combined average of 6.7 rpg. SAN DIEGO is 33-17 UNDER  vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season with a combined average of 8.1 rpg going on the board. SAN DIEGO is 12-2 UNDER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better this season with a combined average of 6.9 rpg. 

ROBERTS is 48-30 UNDER  at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 as the manager of LA DODGERS with a combined average of 8.4 rpg.

MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (SAN DIEGO) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season-NL, excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game on the season are 43-10 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 7.9 rpg scored.

Play on the under

Philadelphia is currently four games up in the first NL Wild Card spot and will be playing hard against a team that already has their post season destiny in hand. Advantage Phillies. 

Atlantas starter MORTON is 17-32  against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season in his career. (Team's Record) MORTON is 5-8 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 4.92 and a WHIP of 1.575.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ATLANTA) - NL team with a high slugging percentage (.430 or more ) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or less), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts are 49-104 L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Philadelphia to win

Baltimore has won 7 straight games and has big time momentum going into this tilt. I know The Red Sox are desperate and Bello their starter is a consistent go to pitcher, but considering how explosive the Os batting order is right now very few pitchers in this league could handle them in their current form. BALTIMORE is 9-0   against the money line after 4 or more consecutive overs this season.

BOSTON is 2-9   against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season.BOSTON is 4-12 against the money line in home games after allowing 10 runs or more 2 straight games since 1997.

MLB Home teams (BOSTON) - off 3 straight losses vs. division rivals, winning between 51% and 54% of their games on the season are 10-33 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Baltimore to win

The Os smashed the Bosox 11-2 yesterday and have momentum entering this tilt after 6 straight wins.

Baltimores starter FLAHERTY is 18-7 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Y is 10-1  against the money line in road games in day games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Meanwhile, Boston sends  lefty Chris Sale (6-3, 4.46). Sale's velocity has been down since he returned from a stress reaction in his left shoulder blade  , and against this type of offense could easily have problems. 

BOSTON is 6-16 against the money line in home games after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

 Home teams (BOSTON) - off 3 straight losses vs. division rivals, winning between 51% and 54% of their games on the season are 10-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Baltimore to win

Padres starter SNELL is 3-14   against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)SNELL is 8-15  against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

HOUSTON is 17-0  against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start) like the Fathers starter Snell over the last 3 seasons. Snell has pitched well overall this season, but the Astros have a recent history of taking advantage of hurlers with sub par control.  the Padres southpaw has recorded the most walks (89) and wild pitches (12) in the majors this season.

SAN DIEGO is 4-11  against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. SAN DIEGO is 8-21  against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.

MLB  team (HOUSTON) - after sweeping a 3 game series against a division rival, in an inter-league game are 47-11 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Houston to win 

FRIED is 4-0 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 0.35 and a WHIP of 0.857 and Im projecting another top tier effort from a quality pitcher in good form as is evident by a current 2.52 ERA on the season.The Braves pitching has imploded in their L/2 games, and they will be primed to right that ship today. Meanwhile, Cards starter Wainwright has gone 10-4 with a 3.42 ERA against the Braves in 21 games (16 starts) since the 2003 season and despite of some inconsistencies during  this campaign is still  capable of slowing . down the Braves explosive offense. 

ST LOUIS is 51-36 UNDER  vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 8.4 rpg scored. 

MLB teams where the total is 10 or higher (ATLANTA) - very good offensive team ( 5.0 or more  runs/game) against a terrible starting pitcher (ERA 6.20 or worse) (NL), with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 35-8 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

MLB Road teams (ST LOUIS) - after 3 straight games where they committed no errors, with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP  1.900 or more  over his last 10 starts are 40-15 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under

The Diamondbacks (71-68) after a loss yesterday are in what you might call as deseration mode even. they are currently one game behind the Cincinnati Reds in the battle for the National League's third wild-card spot. The Miami Marlins are a half-game ahead of Arizona. They need to win and will be very motivated. 

Rockies starter Flexen owns a ugly 1-6 record along with a bloated 7,83 ERA on the season and is fade material here according to my power rankings. Flexen is 1-2 with a 5.94 ERA in seven starts since joining the Rockies. Flexen is 1-1 with a 5.48 ERA in four career starts against Arizona. Advantage Arizona on the runline. 

Arizonas starter Davies limited the Baltimore Orioles to one run and four hits over six innings in a 4-2 win on Friday and has momentum entering this tilt. 

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (ARIZONA) - after a loss by 2 runs or less against opponent after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games are 56-9 L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average rpg diff clicking in at +2.8  which qualifies on this run-line offering. 

Play on Arizona to win -1.5 runline

Dodgers starter  Kershaw (12-4, 2.48 ERA) had a six-week absence earlier this season with a wore shoulder  and since his return, and recently he has  recorded a stingy 2.12 ERA over his last 17 innings and looks to have shaken off the shoulder issues. Meanwhile his pitching opponent from the Marlins Luzardo  has pitched better of late had a  a three-start malfunction at the beginning of August when he went 0-3 with an 11.68 ERA. He can be a viable pitcher but here against this explosive Dodgers offense Im betting he relapses again. 

LA DODGERS are 83-37  against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.

MIAMI is 11-31  against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. MIAMI is 3-15  against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season.

MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (LA DODGERS) - team with a good SLG (.430 or better ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 or less) -NL, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games are 39-7 L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Dodgers

Twins starter GRAY is 1-7  against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)

My pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest  Guardians rookie right-hander Tanner Bibee (10-3, 3.03), matches up well here vs Gray and the Twins offense. Advantage Cleveland on a value line.

CLEVELAND is 23-9 against the money line in September games over the last 2 seasons.

MINNESOTA is 2-8  against the money line when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) this season. 

MINNESOTA is 1-7  against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season.

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CLEVELAND) - team with a sub par SLG (.400 or less) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or better ) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%. are 29-9 L/26 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CLEVELAND) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%, with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (AL) are 36-13 L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Cleveland 

The Rockies have lost  11 of their last 14 games and look completely asleep at the proverbial wheel. The Rockies have lost each of their last eight games against National League opponents that held a winning record. Meanwhile,  Diamondbacks are battling with the Marlins, Giants, and Reds for the last wild card spot and need wins badly and  Im betting will play like it here today. Merrill Kelly gets the ball, and he is 10-6 with a 3.31 ERA and 147 strikeouts this season and gives the Dbacks the edge on the hill. KELLY is 10-1  against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record) with the average rpg diff clicking in at +2.4. 

COLORADO is 3-34  against the money line as an underdog of +200 or more this season with a average rpg diff of +3.6 which easily qualifies on this run-line offering.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (COLORADO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL), starting a pitcher who walked 1 or more hitters each of his last 2 outings are 76-13 L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate with the average rpg diff  of +2.5 going on the board.

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (COLORADO) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season-NL, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 45-4 L/26 seasons for a 92% conversion rate with the average run per game diff clicking in at +2.1 which qualifies on this runline offering.

Play on Dbacks -1.5 to cover on the runline 

Bostons starter BELLO is 0-2 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 7.71 and a WHIP of 1.857 and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup all that well here vs the Rays. 

TAMPA BAY is 21-5 against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BOSTON) - revenging a same season 3 game sweep at the hands of their opponents, a marginal winning team (51% to 54%) playing a winning team are 5-29 L/26 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (TAMPA BAY) - with a tired bullpen - throwing 9+ innings over the last 2 games against opponent with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 1.750 the last 10 games are 96-25 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to win 

Twins are playing much better ball than the Rangers recently winning 4 of their L/6 overall including the first two games of this series . The Rangers have been particularly inconsistent at home where they are  0-6 L/6  (-9.70 Units / -100% ROI). Advantage once again resides with the Twins as road dogs here in game 3 of this series.

Twins starter MAEDA is 2-0 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 2.30 and a WHIP of 1.149 and his team has won all 3 career starts vs the Rangers. 

 Texas starter Gray   is 3-11   against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season in his career. (Team's Record)

MLB Road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (MINNESOTA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 51-25 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Minnesota to win 

Clevinger (6-6, 3.32 ERA) grabbed a victory vs Oakland Athletics on Sunday behind seven innings of one-run ball with two walks and a season-high 10 strikeouts. He has been dominant against Detroit in his career, going 8-2 with a 1.63 ERA in 14 appearances, including 13 starts and Im betting his gives his team an edge here today. 

MLB  Home teams (CHI WHITE SOX) - bad offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or worse ) (AL), starting a pitcher who walked 4+ hitters each of his last 2 outings are 33-16 L/26 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago White Sox 

ATLANTA is 16-2   against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better this season like Dodgers starter  Urias. Note:Urias (11-7, 4.41 ERA) was the NL ERA champion a season ago, but he has been unable to  back in top form and he also has suffered injury issues missing six weeks in the first half with a hamstring injury. He has been  inconsistent since returning, registering  four starts in which he allowed one run or none, three in which he gave up two or three runs, and three in which he allowed five plus runs.

Braves starter FRIED is 16-6  against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season in his career. (Team's Record) FRIED is 35-12 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 since 1997. (Team's Record

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (LA DODGERS) - excellent power team (1.5 or more  HR's/game) vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.000 or less  over his last 3 starts are 6-34 L/26 seasons for a 85% conversion rate.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ATLANTA) - after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base, playing on Friday are 55-18 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play on the Atlanta Braves to win