The Kansas City Royals are in a bounce back mode after allowing 27 runs in their previous two games. Im betting they come through here with a concerted team effort and pull off the underdog win. 

Cardinals are 7-15 in their last 22 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. Cardinals are 4-9 in their last 13 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record

Royals are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games. Royals are 12-3 in their last 15 during game 1 of a series.

KANSAS CITY is 17-10  against the money line in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. MATHENY is 14-9   against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  62% or better ) as the manager of KANSAS CITY.

Play on KC Royals to win 

LHP Andrew Heaney (8-9, 4.71 ERA in 2021) vs. RHP Chris Archer (3-9, 5.19 in 2021)

Archer only pitched in 6 games last season because of forearm issues, and looks like he could get crushed here tonight.Archer's lifetime stats vs the Dodgers tell me a story of a hurler who get crushed by the volcanic bats of this LA crew.   Archer has allowed 23 hits 68 at-bats and has also walked 16 of batters.  Dodgers explode for runs is my call helping this combined score eclipse the offered number. On the flip side, Andrew Heaney the dodgers hurler does not matchup well here vs the Twins batting order. Yes, I know the Twinkies have struggled a bit with their batting average but still rank 3rd in slugging percentage at .484 along with 9 HRs and could easily tee off here and get us to the promised land. 

Over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings in Minnesota.

Over is 8-2-2 in the last 12 meetings.

Play OVER 

Brash the Mariners' minor league pitcher of the year after compiling a 2.31 ERA over 20 outings last season looks like. a viable pitching option. 

Meanwhile,Velasquez, just signed a contract with Chicago and was  3-9 with a 6.30 ERA in 25 games (21 starts) between the Philadelphia Phillies and the San Diego Padres last season and is a fade material hurler. 

Mariners are 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Mariners are 7-1 in their last 8 during game 1 of a series. Mariners are 21-8 in their last 29 road games.

SEATTLE is 11-4  against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 3.9 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.SEATTLE is 51-35  against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Mariners to win 

 Alex Wood, the Giants starter went 10-4 with a 3.83 ERA in 26 starts last season and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings matches up well vs the Padres. Meanwhile, Martinez, the Padres new off season acquisition went  17-30 with a 4.77 ERA in his first four years in the majors all with Texas and looks vulnerable here vs what could be another explosive offensive season vs the Giants. 

Giants are 45-18 in their last 63 games as a home favorite.

Padres are 7-23 in their last 30 vs. a team with a winning record.Padres are 2-14 in their last 16 during game 1 of a series.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN DIEGO) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 11+ losses in last 15 games against opponent first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 20+ wins in last 30 games are 8-31 L26 seasons for a go against  80% conversion rate. 

Play on the SF Giants to win 

Guardians starter Civale is coming off his first winning campaign, finishing 2021 with a 12-5 record and a 3.84 ERA. He had a WHIP of 1.118 a and according to my pitcher vs batting order power ratings matches up well here vs KC. Meanwhile, another under rated Royals pitcher goes to the hill here as Hernandez proved that he belonged with a solid 2021 campaign. when he accumulated a  6-2 record along with a viable  3.68 ERA. Im betting on both these undervalued hurlers and two quality bullpens to keep this combined score on the low side of the Total. 

Under is 6-0 in Guardians last 6 during game 4 of a series.Under is 5-2 in Guardians last 7 games as an underdog.Under is 7-3 in Guardians last 10 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Under is 5-1 in Royals last 6 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Under is 4-1-1 in Royals last 6 games as a home favorite.Under is 12-3-1 in Royals last 16 during game 4 of a series.Under is 4-1 in Royals last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.KANSAS CITY is 40-19 UNDER   in day games over the last 2 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 26-11 UNDER vs. AL teams allowing 3.9 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.

Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Kansas City.

Play UNDER 

Montgomery the Yankees starter today has had problems with  run support after the Yankees scored three runs or fewer in 15 of his starts last season.The left-hander is 1-2 with a 3.72 ERA in 11 career starts against the Red Sox and was 0-2 with a 3.29 ERA in five starts against them last season. A combination of lack of run support and his ability to be competitive on the mound give credence to an under wager especially considering  Boston starter Houck is 1-1 with a 1.86 ERA in five career appearances (three starts) against the Yankees and gets my support here. Look for both viable bullpens when called upon to help keep this game on the low side of the offered  number. Under is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings.

MONTGOMERY is 21-8 UNDER  when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) MONTGOMERY is 13-4 UNDER  in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Under is 4-0-1 in Yankees last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Under is 11-4-1 in Yankees last 16 during game 3 of a series.

Under is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Under is 7-3 in Red Sox last 10 games following a loss.

Play UNDER 

Montgomery the Yankees starter today has had problems with  run support after the Yankees scored three runs or fewer in 15 of his starts last season.The left-hander is 1-2 with a 3.72 ERA in 11 career starts against the Red Sox and was 0-2 with a 3.29 ERA in five starts against them last season. A combination of lack of run support and his ability to be competitive on the mound give credence to an under wager especially considering  Boston starter Houck is 1-1 with a 1.86 ERA in five career appearances (three starts) against the Yankees and gets my support here. Look for both viable bullpens when called upon to help keep this game on the low side of the offered  number. Under is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings.

MONTGOMERY is 21-8 UNDER  when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) MONTGOMERY is 13-4 UNDER  in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Under is 4-0-1 in Yankees last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Under is 11-4-1 in Yankees last 16 during game 3 of a series.

Under is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Under is 7-3 in Red Sox last 10 games following a loss.

Play UNDER 

PABLO LOPEZ (R) vs. CARLOS RODON (L)

The Giants averaged 4.96 runs per game last season, San Francisco ranked second in the NL in scoring; the Giants also ranked second in the league in runs allowed (3.67 per game) and Im betting on even greater uptick in offensive prowess and a sustained level of defensive issues. This kind of action was on display yesterday as we saw the Giants take a 6-5 decision. 

Today two viable pitchers with some shoulder injury issues go head to head. Im betting both wont go very long today because of this, and Im also betting on both offenses to keep chugging along as this game gets going and new pitchers come in from the bullpen. 

MLB Road teams (MIAMI) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 9+ losses in last 12 games against opponent first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 26+ wins in last 40 games are 47-16 OVER L/25 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

New  Jays pitching acquisition Gausman will face right-hander Dane Dunning, who earned the win in his Rangers debut April 6, 2021, against the Blue Jays. He allowed one run, three hits and no walks while striking out six in five innings. Im betting Gausmans opening day jitters in a new uniform make him a vulnerable  target  and Dunning positive previous matchup add to the Rangers underdog status. Alot is being said about the potency of the Blue Jays offense but the Rangers are vastly underrated offensively and that will aid them in keeping this close enough for us to get a runline ticket cashed today. 

MLB Home favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line  of +135 to -190) (TORONTO) - American League team with a good starting pitcher whose ERA was 4.20 to 4.70 last season are 19-66 L/26 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Texas Rangers to cover +1.5 

 Arizona took out the Padres in game 1 of this series and now Im betting on a rebound by the Padres.

ARIZONA is 17-38 ( against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.

NBA team (SAN DIEGO) - team who had a very good bullpen last season with a WHIP of 1.250 or better, after a game where their bullpen blew a save are 30-10 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on San Diego  ML

Reds will send starter Reiver Sanmartin (2-0, 1.54 in 2021) to the hill today vs the Braves . In two outing spanning  four innings in spring training,  the 25 year old hurler  allowed just one hit and one unearned run, earning a spot in the Cincinnati rotation. Im betting on more of the same top tier action from the young thrower again. Meanwhile, 38-year-old veteran Charlie Morton is coming off one of his best seasons, as he matched his career high with 33 starts and posted an impressive 1.045 WHIP in 2021, and a  (14-6, record and  3.34 ERA) and is a viable hurler, that has the ability to slow down the Reds offense. Both bullpens also look solid, based on early season projections giving us an edge on the under. 

Under is 7-3-2 in Reds last 12 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 9-4 in Reds last 13 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Under is 47-23-5 in Reds last 75 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Under is 5-2 in Reds last 7 games as an underdog.

BELL is 40-19 UNDER as a road underdog of +125 to +175 as the manager of CINCINNATI.

MLB Home teams (ATLANTA) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 17+ wins in last 25 games, team that had a good record last season (54% to 62%) playing a team that had a winning record are 56-20 L/26 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Play UNDER 

The Giants averaged 4.96 runs per game last season, San Francisco ranked second in the NL in scoring; the Giants also ranked second in the league in runs allowed (3.67 per game) and Im betting on even greater uptick in offensive prowess and a sustained level of defensive issues. Today I expect the Giants to put 5+ runs on the board based on my pitching vs offensive matchups projections, and for the Marlins to average 3+ runs, which give us an edge with a over wager. I know Alacantra the Marlins hurler is a viable pitcher, but the Giants bats matchup well against him. Giants starter Webb had a good season in 2021, but he  staggered his way to an .829 OPS allowed in April, and has a history of slow starts. 

MATTINGLY is 46-29 OVER  in road games against NL West opponents as the manager of MIAMI with a combined average of 10 rpg scored. Over is 6-1 in Marlins last 7 vs. National League West.

MLB Road teams (MIAMI) - first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 9+ losses in last 12 games against opponent first 12 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 26+ wins in last 40 games are 46-17 OVER L/26 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

In  his last two Opening Day starts, Guardians starter Bieber has combined for 26 strikeouts and has allowed just 9 hits and 3 runs in 12 innings of top tier work and deserves respect here vs the aging Zach Greinke and company.BIEBER is 4-0 in his career when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 3.65 and a WHIP of 1.288.

Guardians are 17-7 in their last 24 games as a favorite.Guardians are 7-3 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

Royals are 3-9 in their last 12 games as an underdog.Royals are 2-6 in their last 8 games as a home underdog.

Play on Cleveland on the ML 

Its do or die for the Astros and Im betting they avoid folding just yet and will find a way to win here this evening to tie their World Series  matchup vs the Braves at 3 games a piece.HOUSTON is 19-6   against the money line in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. I know the Braves starter Fried is a top tier hurler, but the Astros  are  30-11  against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season and 35-14  against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season.ATLANTA is 9-16   against the money line in an inter-league game this season. Braves are 2-7 in their last 9 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.

Astros are 59-22 in their last 81 games following an off day.Astros are 8-3 in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite.Astros are 8-3 in their last 11 interleague games as a favorite.Astros are 10-4 in their last 14 playoff games.

Play on the Astros to win 

 Right-hander Zack Greinke will be the Game 4 starter for the Astros and Im betting after seeing very little action is prepared to compete here. The  veteran  has pitched only 2 1/3 innings in two appearances (one start)  during these play offs after seeing his role diminish late in the season. Greinke made two previous World Series starts, both in 2019 for the Astros, and produced a 2.45 ERA in two no-decisions. Greinke is 11-6 with a 4.16 ERA in 29 starts and one relief appearance during the 2021 regular season and deserves respect in a key situation for the Astros. Astros are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a loss.Astros are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a loss.

Braves are 2-9 in their last 11 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.Braves are 2-11 in their last 13 interleague home games.

HOUSTON is 32-19   against the money line in road games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.

Play on Astros to cover 

Astros Garcia struggled down the stretch after a very good season, and his problems have continued into the play offs.  Considering Astros’ relievers  saw alot of action  in the    first two games it wont be hard for me to imagine the Braves doing some damage today. Meanwhile,  Anderson the Braves starter has been good but not spectacular this season, after an amazing 2020 season and my pitcher vs batting order rankings suggest he may take an early exist but before that Im betting on the Astros explosive offense to get back on track here in put enough runs on the board for us to eclipse this total. 

Atlanta used have a reputation for being a pitchers park but that has turned around a bit and must now be considered more of a hitters park. 

Over is 7-0 in Astros last 7 games as an underdog.Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 playoff games as an underdog.

 Over is 6-1-1 in Braves last 8 interleague home games.

Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 playoff games as an underdogMLB Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (HOUSTON) - AL team with a high slugging percentage (.440 or better ) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or less), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities are 43-20 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER

 Both these bullpens have been taxed and are vulnerable, Atlanta's stater today Fried  is obviously a top tier hurler  , however, the Astros have completely annihilated  left-handed pitching during their current campaign and recorded the highest wRC+vs lefties  in MLB  this season . As of today the Astros own a .305 BA vs southpaws along  with a .838 OPS against lefties while overall averaging 6.3 rpg in the post season against all hurlers. Im expecting for the Astors to bounce back from yesterdays 6-2 loss here with a big offensive output but Im also betting the Braves continue to astound the lines-makers with some offensive fireworks of their own vs  J. Urquidy. The Houston hurler throws more than 55% of his pitches for fastballs, and the Braves are one of MLB best fastball hitting sides ranking 8th in the league agains these kind of hurlers. Over is 4-1 in Braves last 5 playoff games as an underdog. Over is 5-0 in Astros last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games following a loss.Over is 6-0 in Astros last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.

Play on the Astros to win

Astros starter VALDEZ is 10-1 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)  Astros are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a favorite.

Braves starter MORTON is 8-12  against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest this season. (Team's Record)

Astros are 6-1 in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite.Astros are 6-1 in their last 7 interleague games as a favorite.stros are 6-1 in their last 7 playoff home games. Astros are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague home games.A

TLANTA is 6-14 against the money line in an inter-league game this season.ATLANTA is 3-12  against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season this season.  

Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague games as an underdog. Braves are 21-46 in their last 67 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. 

Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 playoff road games.Braves are 6-16 in their last 22 interleague games.Braves are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. American League West. Braves are 3-11 in their last 14 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter. Braves are 0-5 L/5 meetings in this series.

HOUSTON is 28-11  against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.

All the key edges here at home for Houston make this a viable wagering opportunity on the home favorite. 

Play on Houston to win 

Braves starter ANDERSON is 11-0 against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. (Team's Record) 

ANDERSON is 11-2  against the money line in home games this season. (Team's Record)

ATLANTA is 14-4 against the money line in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better this season like Scherzer. 

MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ATLANTA) - after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs, playing on Saturday are 31-17 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate.

MLB Home teams (ATLANTA) - team with a good SLG (.430 or more ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 or less ) -NL, starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest are 110-47 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. 

Play on the Atlanta Braves to win 

The Astros offense has averaged 6.9 runs per game this postseason, ranked No. 1 in the MLB play offs and  and have scored at least five runs in eight of their nine games. Here against  BoSox starter Eovaldi a rinse and repeat situation is expected. especially considering how shaky Red sox bullpen support has been Note: From the 49 runs allowed by Boston in the post season 27 have been allowed by the bullpen Meanwhile, Astros starter Luis Garcia has had issues in his first two starts this postseason, not going past the  third inning  while giving up five earned  runs in each outing and has garnered a ugly 24.55 ERA this postseason. He is not 100% with a knee injury and could easily get bounced around here from a Red Sox batting order that despite of being inconsistent can light up the best of hurlers in this league.HOUSTON is 11-1 OVER  in October games this season with an average of 12.4 rpg going on the board. 

Play OVER

The Braves up 3-1 in this series are ready to bring the hammer down today .

Braves starter FRIED is 19-3  against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)FRIED is 27-6 against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)FRIED is 24-8  against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

The Braves are 5-1 in their last six playoff games and 8-3 in their last 11 road games. 

Play on Atlanta to win

Houston exploded for seven runs in the ninth inning on their way to a 9-2 win in Game 4 of this series, leveling the best-of-seven American League Championship Series at two games apiece and Im betting on the Astros momentum to continue into this tilt behind starter Valdez who has posted a respectable 3-1 record with a 3.19 ERA in six career postseason games (five starts). In regular-season outings against Boston, the southpaw is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in four total appearances including two starts). Red Sox are 2-6 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.

Meanwhile, the flip side,the BoSox starter In nine career playoff games (six starts),  has gone just 1-2 with a 6.91 ERA. Needless to say the top tier hurler, does not perform well under the limelight of post season play and is fade material here in this spot play.Astros are 11-5 in their last 16 playoff games as an underdog.

Play on the Houston Astros to win 

The Braves turn to veteran right-hander Charlie Morton, who went 14-6 with a 3.34 ERA in the regular season and  this season and 8-4 on the road along with a 2.96 ERA. He  was 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA vs. Los Angeles  this season and is more than capable of slowing down a suddenly struggling Dodgers offense. Note: The Dodgers are just 2-for-18 with runners in scoring position in the series. Meanwhile, the dodgers will respond with Walker Buelher who owns. a2.05 ERA at home this season, and is 3-0 when starting against Atlanta in his career along with a 3.06 ERA. Im betting on both these pitchers and two viable bullpens to help keep this game on the low side of the offered number. 

BUEHLER is 18-6 UNDER  as a home favorite of -150 to -200 in his career . (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.3 rpg scored in those 24 games. 

Under is 6-1-2 in Dodgers last 9 League Championship home games.Under is 7-3 in Dodgers last 10 playoff games. Under is 23-10-5 in Dodgers last 38 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 18-7-2 in Dodgers last 27 vs. National League East.

Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games as a road underdog.Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games following an off day.Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 playoff road games.Under is 18-6-2 in Braves last 26 games as an underdog.Under is 13-6-2 in Braves last 21 vs. National League West.

Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.

Play UNDER

Boston will start game 3 of this series  with left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez (0-1, 5.40 ERA). The hurler went winless in two playoff starts against Tampa Bay in the ALDS and is 0-1 with a 7.02 ERA in 10 career postseason games (three starts) RODRIGUEZ is 1-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 8.52 and a WHIP of 1.894. Rodriguez was smashed by the Astros in two regular-season starts going  0-1 with an 11.57 ERA in 9 1/3 innings. According to my power ranking pitcher vs batting order rankings the Astros matchup well vs Rodriguez. 

Urquidy went 8-3 with a 3.62 ERA over 20 starts in the regular season. In his postseason career, he is 1-1 with a 2.81 ERA in eight appearances (four starts).URQUIDY is 1-0 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 0.667.

Boston look the last game played in this series 9-5 but the Astros have proved resilient in the recent past off a loss winning 4 straight redemption situations. 

Astros are 9-4 in their last 13 playoff road games.

Astros are 11-5 in their last 16 playoff games as an underdog.

Play on the Houston Astros to win 

AMERICAN League Playoffs - LCS - Best Of 7 - Game 3

Astros starter URQUIDY is 13-5 OVER   vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.9 rpg scored in those 18 games. URQUIDY is 12-4 OVER  when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 11.1 rpg scored. 

BoSox Starter RODRIGUEZ  in 63 games  vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) has seen a combined average of 10.4 rpg scored. 

HOUSTON is 12-4 OVER as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season with a combined score of 11.5 rpg going on the board in those 16 games. Over is 5-0 in Astros last 5 overall.

Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as an underdog.Over is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a road underdog.Over is 5-0 in Astros last 5 playoff games.

BOSTON is 32-16 OVER at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons with an average of 11 rpg scored in this 48 games. Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 overall.

Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 playoff games.Over is 6-0 in Red Sox last 6 on grass.Over is 7-0 in Red Sox last 7 vs. American League West.Over is 10-1-1 in Red Sox last 12 League Championship home games. Over is 7-1-2 in Red Sox last 10 League Championship games.

Play OVER

Atlantas starting pitcher ANDERSON is 10-0   against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. (Team's Record) Anderson is currently in top form and on a 3-0 run along with garnering a 1.50 ERA and a 0.667 WHIP. Needless to say from my perspective at least he matches up well against Dodgers top tier hurler Scherzer. 

ATLANTA is 21-6 against the money line after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season.

Dodgers are 7-15 in their last 22 League Championship road games.

Braves are 9-2 in their last 11 games following a win.Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog.Braves are 8-2 in their last 10 playoff home games.ATLANTA is 21-6 against the money line after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season.

MLB Home teams (ATLANTA) - team with a good SLG (.430 or more ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 or less) -NL, starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest 109-47 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

Play on the Atlanta Braves to win  

The rested  Braves will go against a Dodgers team off an a hard fought emotional victory vs the SF giants in game of their play off series. Now the Dodgers are  in a classic emotional letdown situation after using a big portion of their pitching staff in that game ,  and now Im betting they are at a disadvantage in game 1 of this series vs the Braves

The Braves will go with Fried  who is 1-0 this postseason, pitching six scoreless innings in a 3-0 victory over the Brewers on Oct. 9. FRIED is 18-3 against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) FRIED is 32-10  against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Braves are 4-0 in their last 4 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Braves are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. National League West.

MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ATLANTA) - team with a good SLG (.430 or more) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 or less) -NL, starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest are 33-18 L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate.

Play on the Atlanta Braves

AMERICAN League Playoffs - LCS - Best Of 7 - Game 1

Astros starter Valdez has permitted two runs and struck out 18 batters in 14 1/3 innings en route to posting a 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA in two starts versus Boston this season. Meanwhile, Bostons starter Sale, is struggling  was beaten on  last Friday, allowing five runs on four hits in one inning of a no-decision against Tampa Bay. In his L/3 starts he owns a 10.39 ERA and on the road this season has recorded a 0-1 record in four trips to the hill along with a bloated 7.37 ERA. Needless to say Sale is fade material here today vs a potent Houston offensive attack. 

SALE is 4-8 against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)   SALE is 1-7 (-9.4 Units) against the money line with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season (AL) since 1997. (Team's Record)

BAKER is 21-6  against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season as the manager of HOUSTON. 

Play on Houston to win 

Starting pitcher WEBB is 10-0  against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game this season. (Team's Record) WEBB is 13-0  against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. (Team's Record) WEBB is 16-2 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record) WEBB is 13-0 against the money line in home games this season. (Team's Record) Dodgers pitcher Urias is a strong hurler but my pitcher vs batting order rankings suggest Webb and his bullpen when needed have the edge. 

 Giants are 22-5 in their last 27 games following an off day.  Giants are 13-4 in their last 17 playoff home games.

LA DODGERS are 19-33  L/52 against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 62% or better) in the second half of the season.

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN FRANCISCO) - team with a good SLG (.430 or more ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 or less) -NL, starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest are 43-16 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Dodgers are 3-8 in the last 11 meetings.

Play on the SF Giants to win 

AMERICAN League Playoffs - LDS - Best Of 5 - Game 4

White Sox starter RODON is 10-1 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. (Team's Record) RODON is 15-6 against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season . (Team's Record)

CHI WHITE SOX are 21-5  against the money line in home games vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season. CHI WHITE SOX are 13-4 against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

MLB Road teams (HOUSTON) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better on the season-AL are 155-282 L/24 seasons for a go against  65% conversion rate.

Play on Chicago White Sox to win 

 Two tired pitching staffs/bullpens has me taking an over stance here today behind two explosive offenses.

TAMPA BAY is 20-8 OVER  in road games vs. teams averaging 3.5 or more extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons. TAMPA BAY is 30-18 OVER on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.

BOSTON is 16-6 OVER with a tired bullpen - after 3 straight games throwing 4+ innings this season

MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (TAMPA BAY) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games, with a tired bullpen - after 3 straight games throwing 4+ innings are 110-49 OVER L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate.

Play OVER

AMERICAN League Playoffs - LDS - Best Of 5 - Game 3

White Sox starter CEASE is 1-9 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record) CEASE is 0-7  against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. (Team's Record) CEASE is 0-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 6.60 and a WHIP of 1.600. My pitcher vs batting order power rankings give the Astros a big edge here today. The Astros have the edge tp clinch the best-of-five series behind right-hander Luis Garcia, who was 11-8 with a 3.30 ERA in 30 appearances in the regular season, including 28 starts.

White Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 Divisional Playoff games.

White Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 playoff games.

Astros are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.Astros are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.Astros are 5-1 in their last 6 playoff games.Astros are 11-4 in their last 15 playoff games as an underdog.

HOUSTON is 7-2  against CHI WHITE SOX this season.

Play on the Astros to win 

AMERICAN League Playoffs - LDS - Best Of 5 - Game 3

Rays starter Rasmussen, who will make his first career postseason start, was 1-0 with a 2.30 ERA in five games (three starts) against Boston this season and gets my support here today in a bounce back game for the Rays who lost 14-6 on Friday night. 

BOSTON is 8-20  against the money line in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 2 seasons.

TAMPA BAY is 24-10  against the money line after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings this season.

MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (BOSTON) - off an upset win vs. a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher against opponent off a loss by 8 runs or more to a division rival are 12-27 L/24 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Road teams (TAMPA BAY) - good offensive team (5.1 or more  runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less) (AL), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts are 33-17 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate.

Play on the TB Rays to win 

NATIONAL League Playoffs - LDS - Best Of 5 - Game 2

SF starter GAUSMAN is 12-3  against the money line against division opponents this season. (Team's Record)

LA DODGERS are 6-14 against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.


SAN FRANCISCO is 41-14  against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season this season.



MLB Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - team with an excellent SLG (.440 or better ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 or less) -NL, starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest are 71-24 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play on San Francisco to win 

NATIONAL League Playoffs - LDS - Best Of 5 - Game 2

Brewers starter WOODRUFF is 4-9 (against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record) WOODRUFF is 4-10  against the money line in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)

Braves starter FRIED is 25-6 against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

ATLANTA is 23-8  against the money line revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less over the last 2 seasons which was the case in a 2-1 loss in game 1 of this series.

MLB  team (ATLANTA) - team with a good SLG (.430 or better ) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 or less) -NL, cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games are 103-59 L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate.

Play on the Atlanta Braves to win 

NATIONAL League Playoffs - LDS - Best Of 5 - Game 1

Logan Webb is  7-0 in 16 starts with a 2.71 ERA and just 5 home runs allowed in  just under 97  innings of top tier work  and deserves respect here even against Buehler and the dodgers who are in an emotional letdown spot after that big game against the Cards that got them here last time out. 

LA DODGERS are 9-16  against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start this season. 

Giants are 12-3 in their last 15 playoff home games.

Dodgers are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings.

MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season (NL), after scoring 10 runs or more are 23-9 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. 

Play on San Francisco to win 

AMERICAN League Playoffs - LDS - Best Of 5 - Game 1

Both these starting pitchers have alot of postseason experience, with Lynn having pitched in 26 times (seven starts), with a 5-4 record and 4.80 ERA, while McCullers has gone 1-2 with a 3.28 ERA in 14 playoff games (seven starts). They go against two explosive offenses and my pitcher vs batting orders rankings suggest a score of 8+ runs giving us value with an over wager according to my projections.

HOUSTON is 14-4 OVER  vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better this season.HOUSTON is 30-17 OVER   at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. Over is 11-3-1 in Astros last 15 Divisional Playoff home games.

Over is 11-3 in Astros last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Over is 4-1 in White Sox last 5 playoff games as an underdog.

Play OVER 

The Cards got here by winning 17 -in  a row in September including victories in 11 straight road games and no matter who their opponent is seem to find ways to win and Im betting that continues here this evening in LA vs the Dodgers. We have two top tier hurlers on the hill for both sides with Scherzer going to the hill for LA and the veteran Wainwright stepping up for the Cards. But what is interesting to note, is that Scherzer was smacked around in his final two starts of the 2021 season at Coors Field against Colorado and than vs the  San Diego Padres. He allowed 10 runs in those two starts and his ERA took a direct hit because of it. So he comes in here maybe not feeling as confident as he was prior to those tilts vs a side that seemingly finds way to win on a very consistent basis no matter what the venue and the opponent is. Chemistry and confidence are great attributes to bet into especially on a value line.WAINWRIGHT is 11-1  against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .245 or worse in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)

Cardinals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road underdog.Cardinals are 8-0 in their last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

Play on St.Louis to win 

The Yankees played an emotionally draining game yesterday and garnering a 1-0 win. Now in a huge letdown situation Im betting the Red sox have the edge behind their starter Eovaldi who has a   career year and emerged as the ace of the Boston rotation. 

Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 playoff games as an underdog.

CORA is 14-3 against the money line in October games in all games he has managed since 1997. 

BOSTON is 90-64  against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. BOSTON is 60-39 against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.

NY YANKEES are 10-17  against the money line after a 5 game span with an OBP of .285 or worse this season.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - poor offensive team - scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season (AL), after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games are 18-51 L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY YANKEES) - team with a poor SLG (.410 or less) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or less) -AL, cold hitting team - batting .215 or worse over their last 5 games are 12-36 L/5 seasons for a 75% go against conversion rate. 

Play on the Boston Red Sox to win

Tampa Bay (100-61) is 7-2 this year in New York and must not be underestimated here even though the Yankees need a win, for various play off implications to take fold. The Rays are also 51-24 against AL East teams this year, including a 26-6 clip since July 29 and wont have any problems trying to make the Yankees lives miserable. The Rays play a merciless hell bent brand of baseball and get the nod here today as value line underdogs.  Yankees are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Play on Tampa Bay to win 

The Rays continue their postseason practice and will now attempt to prevent the Yankees from clinching Saturday afternoon when the American League East rivals meet. 

Rookie Shane Baz (2-0, 1.69 ERA), the sixth pitcher in team history to win his first two starts, takes the hill for Tampa Bay. He last pitched Sunday against the Miami Marlins when he retired the first nine hitters, allowed three hits and struck out nine in 5 2/3 scoreless innings. He went 3-0 with a 1.76 ERA in 10 starts for Triple-A Durham before joining the Rays and is ranked by Baseball America as the 11th-best overall prospect and gets my support here today against the Yankees.

TAMPA BAY is 8-3 against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season.TAMPA BAY is 40-19  against the money line in day games this season.

Rays are 23-11 in the last 34 meetings. Rays are 12-4 in the last 16 meetings in New York.

Play on Rays to win 

 Twins starter Gant has lost seven of his last eight decisions and Im betting against him here today. Lets ride Royals super star Salvador Perez, who leads the majors in home runs (48) and RBIs (121) to be the key contributor. MINNESOTA is 21-41 against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season.

Both these teams lost last time out but KC has proven resilient  after a loss lately going 5-0 after a defeat. 

Play on the KC Royals to win 

Astros starter MCCULLERS JR. is 10-20  against the money line vs. an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season in his career( Team Record) MCCULLERS JR. is 13-27  against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season in his career. (Team's Record) MCCULLERS JR. is 4-12  against the money line in September games . (Team's Record)

TB starter MCHUGH is 40-18 against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 in his career. (Team's Record)

Note: Left-hander Ryan Yarbrough (9-6, 5.09 ERA) will be the bulk pitcher for the Rays in the series finale on Thursday. He is expected to follow starter Collin McHugh (6-1, 1.60). Im betting TBS pitching will do just fine vs a Astros side thats suddenly finds itself in a funk having scored  just 12 runs in six games. 

TAMPA BAY is 8-2  against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season.  

TAMPA BAY is 19-3  against the money line vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing 0.35 or less  SB's/game in the second half of the season this season.

MLB team (TAMPA BAY) - good offensive team ( 5.1 or more  runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.50 or less) (AL), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts are 45-16 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on TB Rays to win 

Fried (13-7, 3.12 ERA) will face Philadelphia's Aaron Nola (9-8, 4.64) on Wednesday.

Atlantas starter FRIED is 28-8  against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)FRIED is 37-13   against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)FRIED is 16-4 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)FRIED is 24-6   against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) FRIED is 14-2   against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Phillies righty  starter NOLA is 11-21 against the money line in September games in his career. (Team's Record) 

Phillies are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog.Phillies are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.

Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Braves are 8-0 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Phillies are 3-8 in the last 11 meetings in Atlanta.

MLB team (PHILADELPHIA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (NL), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.100 or better  over his last 10 games are 18-41 L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Atlanta to win 

Halos starter Naughton (0-3, 5.23 ERA), a lefty, is not in good form and fade material here vs the Rangers tonight. Meanwhile, Rangers starter Alexy (2-1, 5.00 ERA) has shown flashes of brilliance as he  began his career by becoming the first pitcher in modern MLB history to pitch at least five shutout innings as a starter. Hes got the stuff needed to go long and strong today and help us garner a win.

From a motivational standpoint- Texas first baseman Nathaniel Lowe said he'd like to end the season on a high note.quote:

"We've got a week left, and we can't quit for one inning, regardless of who we're playing, whether it's a 100-win Giants team or a 100-loss Baltimore team," he said. End Quote

TEXAS is 20-14 against the money line in home games against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

LA ANGELS are 26-44  against the money line against division opponents this season.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA ANGELS) - revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less, a marginal losing team (46% to 49%) playing a losing team are 9-30 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - very bad AL offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against a team with a below avg. bullpen (ERA 4.50 or more ), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities are 35-15 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.

Play on Texas to win 

Seattle starter LEXEN is 14-3 against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season. (Team's Record)FLEXEN is 15-3 against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season. (Team's Record)FLEXEN is 9-1 against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record) FLEXEN is 10-1 against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. (Team's Record)

Meanwhile, As starter IRVIN is 0-4 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 7.56 and a WHIP of 2.160 and is fade material here vs a Mariners team that has beaten the As in 9 of their L/10 meetings and overall are running hot having won 7 of their L/8 overall.

 Play on the Mariners to win 

Motowns starter PERALTA is 13-2   against the money line in home games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season in his career. (Team's Record)

Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series.Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter. like KCs starter Bubic. Tigers are 6-1 in their last 7 home games.

DETROIT is 49-46 against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. DETROIT is 10-3 against the money line after a 3 game span with an OBP of .393 or better over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less, a bad team (38% to 46%) playing a team with a losing record are 32-72 L/5 seasons for a 69%  go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to win 

White Sox right-hander Lance Lynn (10-5, 2.47 ERA) will look for his first win in two months on Saturday so Im betting he will stretch out and be ready to perform.

CLEVELAND is 2-12  against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season.

MLB Road teams (CHI WHITE SOX) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than 30% are 36-5 L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on White Sox to win 

 Dodgers starter T. Gonsolin 0-2 with a 4.63 ERA in six appearances and five starts at Chase Field. Meanwhile, Dbacks starter HUMBERTO CASTELLANOS has seen his L/3 starts feature a combined 10 runs or more all of which went over, while garnering a 7.07 ERA. 

LA DODGERS are 15-4 OVER  in road games when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 38%) or less in the second half of the season.

ARIZONA is 14-4 OVER  in September games this season.

MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (ARIZONA) - poor hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA 2.70) -NL, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA  7.00 or worse over his last 3 starts are 42-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate.

Play OVER

Padres starter VELASQUEZ is 6-0  against the money line vs. an NL team with an slugging percentage of .430 or better in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) He may not be considered a top tier hurler but he is obviously motivated when going agains strong opponent. 

SAN DIEGO is 19-3  against the money line in home games revenging a one run loss to opponent over the last 3 seasons.SAN DIEGO is 20-6 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - below average hitting team (AVG .255 or less ) against a poor starting pitcher (ERA 5.70 or more ) -NL, in September games are 52-84 L/24 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the San Diego Padres to win 

Boston has won five straight after sweeping the Baltimore Orioles over the past  weekend and bring [positive momentum into this tilt vs the Mets. 

Red Sox starter RODRIGUEZ is 17-3  against the money line in an inter-league game in his career. (Team's Record) NY METS are 9-21 against the money line after 7 or more consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons.

CORA is 18-4  against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better in all games he has managed since 1997. ( Stroman of the Mets qualifies)

MLB team (BOSTON) - after sweeping a 3 game series against a division rival, in an inter-league game are 43-17 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Red Sox to win 

Pirates starter Peters (1-2, 2.66 ERA) was in top form against the Reds on Tuesday, throwing five shutout innings for his first MLB win since Sept. 24, 2019, when he played for the Los Angeles Angels. Im betting he and the Reds Guiterrez matchup well against both batting orders and that their bullpens should do enough to keep the combined score here on the low side of the total. 

PITTSBURGH is 15-5 UNDER in road games revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less this season. Under is 6-1-2 in Pirates last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 3-1-2 in Pirates last 6 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Under is 10-4-3 in Pirates last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.

Under is 7-2-1 in Reds last 10 games as a favorite. Under is 9-3-1 in Reds last 13 overall.Under is 9-3-1 in Reds last 13 on grass.Under is 6-2-1 in Reds last 9 vs. National League Central.

MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (PITTSBURGH) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season-NL are 46-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Right-hander Kyle Gibson (10-7, 3.49 ERA) is slated to take the mound for the Phillies against left-hander Rich Hill (6-7, 3.88).

The Mets have lost 5 straight games and are trying to avoid being swept by the visiting Phillies. But Im betting they wont be successful in stopping the Phillies momentum. NY METS are 1-9  against the money line revenging 2 straight home losses vs opponent this season. 

The Phillies are in hot pursuit for a play off spot and will have plenty of motivation to be merciless here in NY. 

Phillies are 6-0 in the last 6 meetings.

Play on Phillies to win

Charlie Morton will go to the hill for the  Braves on Saturday. He has been in top tier  form, and has garnered a  13-5 record this season along  with an ERA of 3.49, a WHIP of 1.05  including 192 Ks. He brings enough quality form into this tilt to give credence to me backing him as an underdog. Meanwhile, Alex Wood goes for the Giants, and despite of being a viable hurler, will be in deep here vs a Atlanta side that has feasted on lefty hurlers this season, as is evident by averaging 5.8 rpg of output. 

The Braves lost yesterday in the first game of this series by a 6-5 count, but they have proven resilient in the past after a defeat  going 24-9 in their last 33 games following a loss.

Braves are 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.Braves are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in San Francisco.

ATLANTA is 21-8  against the money line in road games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season this season.

Play on the Atlanta Braves to win 

Red Sox starter PIVETTA is 8-1 UNDER    vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record)PIVETTA is 12-2 UNDER  vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Pivetta is 6-0 with a 2.95 ERA in six career starts against the Orioles and Im betting his ability to limit the Orioles offensive output today will have a direct effect on keeping the combined score on the low side of the offered total. I know Orioles rookie starter Lowther may not inspire under bettors, but his numbers are a bit tainted thanks to facing the Red Sox in his first career start and then taking on the explosive Blue Jays in his 2nd start. After those firestorms I expect this talented hurler to show some more poise and keep the Red sox under at least minimal control. 

BOSTON is 22-11 UNDER  vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing 0.35 or less SB's/game this season.

Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 overall.Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 games as an underdog.Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 on grass.Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 vs. American League East.

Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Play UNDER

Seattle's starter FLEXEN is 8-0  against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season. (Team's Record) FLEXEN is 13-3 against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season. (Team's Record) FLEXEN is 12-3 against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season. (Team's Record) FLEXEN is 16-4 against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. (Team's Record) FLEXEN is 8-1 against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season. (Team's Record)

MLB Home teams (KANSAS CITY) - team with a poor OBP (.320 or less) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or less) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than 30% are 10-44 L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Seattle to win 

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (LA ANGELS) - cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent starting a pitcher who was hit for 5+ runs in his last 2 outings are 6-33 L/5 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Pale Hose starter Keuchel has been dominant against the Angels in his career, going 12-2 with a 3.55 ERA in 19 appearances, including 18 starts and Im betting that continues here tonight. Meanwhile, Angels will answer with Rookie right-hander Janson Junk (0-1, 2.45 ERA) . 

Under is 5-1-3 in White Sox last 9 vs. American League West.Under is 5-1-1 in White Sox last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Under is 10-4 in Angels last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 17-7 in Angels last 24 games as a road underdog.

MLB Home teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (CHI WHITE SOX) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (AL), with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games are 34-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. 

Under is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings in Chicago.

Play UNDER

Colorado has won five of its past six road games, improving to 13-17 away from home since the All-Star break and have won 9 of their L/10 games here in Atlanta. Tonight behind starter Senzatela,  who has quality starts in each of his last six trips to the hill,  along with garnering a solid  has a 2.54 ERA  in 39 innings during that span, the Rockies look to be the right side on a value line. Senzatela has made four career appearances and three starts against the Braves, going 2-0 with a 3.66 ERA and gets my support here. Braves are 0-6 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series.

Play on the Colorado Rockies to win 

St.Louis is running hot right now having won 6 of their L/7 games, and setting their sites on post season, ball will have them ready to compete tonight in NY where Im betting they will complete a 3 game sweep of the up and down Mets. Cards starter Lester is 8-1 with a 3.18 ERA in 11 regular season starts against the Mets and  while pitching for Washington on June 19, he threw six-plus innings of two-run ball agains them. Rinse and repeat.LESTER is 63-31 against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)NY METS are 17-29  against the money line against left-handed starters this season.

Play on St.Louis to win 

Rockies starter GRAY  in 6 career starts is 3-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 2.63 and a WHIP of 1.221. He made his return from a stint on the 10-day injured list with right forearm tightness against San Francisco last Wednesday and allowed three runs and struck out eight. Im betting he is much stronger in this spot play. Meanwhile, Atlanta's  Toussaint's last two starts, has seen him allowed seven runs, five earned, in six combined innings of sub par work, an is fade material in his current form. 

Rockies are 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Atlanta.

Play on the Colorado Rockies to win

Peralta vs Peralta The Tigers have won three of their last four games and are viable underdogs here today vs their National league opponents the Milwaukee Brewers behind  right-hander Wily Peralta (3-3, 3.60 ERA) who gave up a run on six hits in four innings at Pittsburgh last Tuesday in his most recent start. Meanwhile, Brewers starter Freddy Peralta (9-4, 2.69 ERA) will start on Tuesday. Peralta has been on an innings limit  and has not exceeded more than 3 2/3 innings in any of his last three starts . This tells me they are saving him for post season play or he is  showing signs of fatigue or both an is vulnerable to getting blasted by a sometimes explosive Detroit offense.  

Tigers are 6-1 in their last 7 games following an off day.

Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Tigers are 6-2 in their last 8 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. 

DETROIT is 8-4  against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season.

MILWAUKEE is 49-100 L/149 against the money line in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs .MILWAUKEE is 10-17 against the money line after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Detroit Tigers to win 

MLB Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (SAN DIEGO) - cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games against opponent hot hitting team - batting .305 or better over their last 5 games are 53-21 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. 

Play UNDER

Alcantara is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA this season vs the Nationals. The Marlins starter allowed  five runs (four earned)  including 2 HRs. In seven career starts versus the Nats, Alcantara is 1-6 with a 6.50 ERA and according to my power rankings and Im betting he gets lit up again. Meanwhile, the Nationals fire back with struggling starter Espino who is 1-1 with a 6.08 ERA in his L/ 23 ⅔ innings of sub par work where he , surrendered  16 earned runs   including six home runs. Im also betting on him giving up enough runs to help this combined score easily eclipse this total offering.

Over is 6-1 in Marlins last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 6-1 in Marlins last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.

WASHINGTON is 38-24 OVER  in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 11.1 rpg scored. 

MARTINEZ is 52-24 OVER  in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse in the second half of the season as the manager of WASHINGTON.

Play OVER 

Sunday's series finale is scheduled to feature a matchup of left-handers in Arizona's Tyler Gilbert (1-2, 3.12 ERA) against Seattle's Yusei Kikuchi (7-8, 4.32). My power rankings give the edge to the Mariners in a bounce back situation after yesterdays flat loss. 

ARIZONA is 2-14 against the money line against AL West opponents this season.

SERVAIS is 9-16 against the money line in home games vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game on the season as the manager of SEATTLE.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -150 or more (SEATTLE) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL), with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (AL) are 61-20 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play on the Seattle to win 

Cards starter  HAPP is 20-9  against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season. (Team's Record)

Reds starter GRAY is 2-4 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 6.37 and a WHIP of 1.471.

MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (ST LOUIS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.20 or worse on the season (NL), in September games are 27-12 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Road teams (CINCINNATI) - below average hitting team (AVG .255 or less) against a poor starting pitcher (ERA 5.70 or more ) -NL, in September games are  50-81 L/24 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate.

Cardinals are 6-2 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series.

Play on the Cardinals to win 

Mariners starter FLEXEN is 7-0  against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record) FLEXEN is 16-3  against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. (Team's Record)

Mariners are 9-0 in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

ARIZONA is 1-13  against the money line against AL West opponents this season.ARIZONA is 33-82 against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.

Diamondbacks are 1-8 in their last 9 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.Diamondbacks are 0-8 in their last 8 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. Diamondbacks are 8-45 in their last 53 road games.

Play on Seattle to win 

Cleveland's Zach Plesac (10-4, 4.53 ERA) goes to the hill Saturday vs the Milwaukee Brewers. Plesac, is 4-0 in his past five outings on Sunday after yielding three runs in five innings of an 11-5 victory over the Boston Red Sox. Meanwhile, right-hander Corbin Burnes (9-4, 2.38 ERA), takes the ball for the Brewers. He is also in good form going  7-0 with a 2.40 ERA in his past 16 trips to the mound . With two strong hurlers on the hill, the advantage according to my power rankings goes to the home side, on a value moneyline offering. I know Cleveland is struggling to score, but they matchup well vs /Burnes according to my pitcher vs batter power rankings. 

FRANCONA is 102-60 against the money line after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games as the manager of CLEVELAND

MLB Road teams (MILWAUKEE) - NL team with a low slugging percentage (.400 or less) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or better ), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.100 or less over his last 10 games are 41-68 L/5 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indians to win 

Twins right handed starter Jax has lost two of his last three starts and when he  faced the Royals in his first major league start, on July 3 in Kansas City,  he  took the loss while allowing six runs on eight hits over five innings and is once again fade material here on a value money-line offering. 

MINNESOTA is 15-31   against the money line against left-handed starters this season and Lynch currently in decent form has an edge here. Twins are 5-12 in their last 17 vs. a team with a losing record.

Royals are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.

Play on the KC Royals to win 

The Red Sox (80-62) seized the pole position Wednesday with a win over the Tampa Bay Rays coupled with a New York Yankees loss. The Yankees dropped their sixth straight Thursday to up idle Boston's lead for the top spot to one game and now we have a BoSox side with confidence and a big chance at a play off spot. Motivation is key at this juncture in the season, and we have that in spades backing this underdog today. I know the White Sox are a stud team, but they have had problems scoring lately with consistency, making them vulnerable. Meanwhile, Red sox hurler Houck was nearly flawless over five scoreless innings against the Cleveland Indians last time out, allowing just three hits and striking out seven and also has momentum. Ride the wave here with Boston. 

RODON is 0-3 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 3.96 and a WHIP of 1.240 and his team has lost all 4 of his starts vs the BoSox. BOSTON is 29-22 (+10.2 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season like Rodon. 

BOSTON is 17-4  against the money line when playing on Friday this season. Red Sox are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. American League Central. Red Sox are 15-7 in their last 22 during game 1 of a series

Play on Boston Red Sox to win 

Indians rookie right-hander Eli Morgan is off a strong effort last time out as is Houser of Milwaukee. But according to my projections and power rankings the Indians have an edge, at home and must be respected as underdogs in this spot play. (Milwaukee is up big in their race for a secured play off spot and its never easy keeping an edge in a long season when you are at such lofty heights. 

Indians are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.

Indians are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague home games.

COUNSELL is 47-59  against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season as the manager of MILWAUKEE. Brewers are 2-8 in their last 10 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.

Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 interleague road games. Brewers are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.MILWAUKEE is 2-7  against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season. MILWAUKEE is 5-10  against the money line against AL Central opponents this season.

MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (MILWAUKEE) - NL team with a low slugging percentage (.400 or less ) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or less), starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing are just 64-64  and spilling a boatload full of juice. 

Brewers are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Cleveland.

Brewers are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings.

Play on Cleveland to win 

Royals starter HERNANDEZ is 11-5  against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher in his career. (Team's Record) note: BALTIMORE is 4-17  against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start this season like Hernandez.  .... Hernandez (5-1, 3.57 ERA) has been one of the majors' surprise starters. He joined the Royals' rotation in mid-July and is 4-0 with a 2.21 ERA in his past six starts.In two road starts this season, Hernandez is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA, having beaten the Chicago White Sox and the Chicago Cubs last month. 

Orioles lefty starter MEANS is 0-6 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. (Team's Record)MEANS is 0-10   against the money line at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)Royals are 7-3 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter.Royals are 9-4 in their last 13 road games.Royals are 15-7 in their last 22 games vs. a left-handed starter. 

Orioles are 2-8 in their last 10 games as a home favorite.

Orioles are 0-5 in their last 5 during game 4 of a series.

Play on the Royals to win 

MLB Road teams (NY METS) - below average hitting team (AVG .255 or less) against a poor starting pitcher (ERA 5.70 or more ) -NL, in September games are 50-80 L/24 seasons for a go against 61% conversion rate for bettors.

White Sox starter  Reynaldo Lopez (3-1, 2.08 ERA). has been in top form in four career starts against the A's, going 2-1 along with a minuscule   0.77 ERA.One of those starts was Aug. 17 at home against the Athletics , when  he went  five innings in a  9-0 shutout win. I know Manaea is a top strong hurler, but the Pale Hose have been hard on left handed pitching producing an average of 5.3 rpg and  are 19-7 in their last 26 road games vs. a left-handed starter.

Washington left-hander Sean Nolin (0-2, 5.71) on Wednesday. The Braves will counter with right-hander Touki Toussaint (3-2, 4.19). 

Nationals are 7-19 in their last 26 games as a road underdog.Nationals are 8-22 in their last 30 vs. a team with a winning record.Nationals are 7-19 in their last 26 games as a road underdog.Nationals are 8-22 in their last 30 vs. a team with a winning record. Nationals are 0-5 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.  Nationals are 6-21 in their last 27 road games. Nationals are 5-24 in their last 29 vs. National League East.

WASHINGTON is 6-23  against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season this season.WASHINGTON is 12-26  against the money line with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent this season.

MLB Road teams (WASHINGTON) - average hitting team (AVG  .255 to .269) against an average starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20) -NL, starting a pitcher who walked 1 or less hitters each of his last 2 outings are 4-29 L/5 seasons for a  go against 88% conversion rate.

Nationals are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Atlanta.

Nationals are 10-26 in the last 36 meetings.

Play on the Atlanta Braves to win 

 In the series finale, Detroit right-hander Matt Manning (3-6, 6.29 ERA) is scheduled to oppose Pittsburgh right-hander Mitch Keller (4-10, 6.23). Edge goes to Manning and the Tigers. 

Tigers are 6-2 in their last 8 interleague games as an underdog.

Tigers are 5-2 in their last 7 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.

Tigers are 10-4 in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

MLB team (DETROIT) - AL team with a terrible OBP (.310 or less ) against a terrible NL starting pitcher (WHIP 1.650 or more ), starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest are 30-7 L/24 seasons for a 81% conversion rate.

Play on the Tigers to win 

Tyler Anderson goes to the mound for the Mariners . He has been a viable hurler for the Mariners as is evident by having won four of his last five starts, including a 6-3 victory at Houston.After pitching to a 4.35 ERA in Pittsburgh, Anderson has a 3.38 ERA in his seven starts since joining the Mariners.He has completed at least five innings in each of his starts this season and 27 straight starts dating back to last season and gets the nod here on a a value line. 

ANDERSON is 7-2 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Play on the Seattle Mariners to win 

DBcks starter GALLEN is 1-11 against the money line at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record

Diamondbacks are 0-8 in their last 8 inter-league home games. ARIZONA is 1-11  against the money line against AL West opponents this season. ARIZONA is 8-31  against the money line after a 5 game span with an OBP of .285 or worse this season. 

MLB Road teams (TEXAS) - revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite, off 2 straight upset wins over division rivals as a road underdog are 31-10 L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate.

Play on the Texas Rangers 

 TB is running hot and yesterday they came back from a 6 run deficit at. one point to win a 11-10 battle. BOSTON is 10-17against the money line in home games after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. TB looked a like a team possessed yesterday and Im betting they continue their aggression into todays tilt against a shell shocked Red Sox team that is reeling at the worst time of the year. 

TAMPA BAY is 23-9  against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. TAMPA BAY is 21-9  against the money line off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY) - with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL), after scoring and allowing 8 runs or more in a game are 34-16 L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. 

Play on the TB Rays to win 

NYY starter Cole and  Blue Jays expected starter today Matz have both been in top form during the  last month of this campaign. Since the start of August, these stud hurlers have  combined for a 1.57 ERA  in 57 1/3 innings of top tier work with a total of 8 runs crossing the plate . Cole has  garnered a minuscule 0.73 ERA in his L/4 trips to the hill, Meanwhile, Matz has garnered  1.65 ERA and allowed  just two runs or less in his L/6 starts. I know both these sides can realy rev up their offences but today Im betting on the a pitchers duel and enough bullpen support to keep this tilt on the low side of the total. 

NY YANKEES are 9-1 UNDER  vs. an AL team with an slugging percentage of .440 or better in the second half of the season this season.

TORONTO is 24-11 UNDER  in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasonsTORONTO is 19-9 UNDER in road games against division opponents this season.TORONTO is 26-16 UNDER  as an underdog of +100 or higher this season. Under is 10-2 in Blue Jays last 12 games as an underdog.

Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in New York.

Play on the UNDER 

The blue Jays blew out the Yanks yesterday by a 8-0 count and now the Yankees will be primed for a bounce back  and redemption. 

NYY starter COLE is 5-0 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 2.64 and a WHIP of 0.880.

MLB favorites with a money line of -200 or more (NY YANKEES) - after a game without an extra base hit are 57-6 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors. 

MLB favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (NY YANKEES) - with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games are 58-10 L/24 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Yankees to win 

Civale (10-2, 3.32 ERA) went 3-0 over four June starts and threw 4 2/3 innings of scoreless ball against the Chicago Cubs on June 21. However, three days later he was placed on the injured list due to a sprained right middle finger. He's not been active since, but following a third rehab start last week, hes proclaimed himself 100% healthy and ready to hit the hill with confidence. Meanwhile, his Minnesota pitching opponent John Gant (4-9, 3.98 ERA) has lost 3 straight starts and six  consecutive decisions and is fade material in his current form. 

Indians starter CIVALE is 12-3 against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)

CLEVELAND is 26-8  against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less this season. Twins are 9-21 in their last 30 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.CLEVELAND is 40-13 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.

FRANCONA is 111-45  against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.9 or more runs/game in the second half of the season as the manager of CLEVELAND.

Play on Cleveland to win 

Giants starter GAUSMAN is 0-5 against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Rockies starter FREELAND is 9-1  against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) FREELAND is 9-0 against the money line in home games in day games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

MLB Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset win vs. a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 16-53 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Rockies to win 

Colorado starter FREELAND is 9-1 UNDER   when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 62% or better) over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) FREELAND is 12-1 UNDER  vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) FREELAND is 11-1 UNDER   vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. (Team's Record)

SF starter GAUSMAN is 56-33 UNDER against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)

COLORADO is 31-16 UNDER  at home when the total is 11 or higher this season. Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Under is 8-1 in Rockies last 9 games as a home underdog.Under is 14-3 in Rockies last 17 games as an underdog.Under is 9-2 in Rockies last 11 vs. National League West.

SAN FRANCISCO is 17-5 UNDER  in road games after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more over the last 2 seasons. Under is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 5-0 in Giants last 5 games as a favorite.Under is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Under is 5-0 in Giants last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 3-0-2 in Giants last 5 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

MLB Road teams where the total is 10 or higher (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season (NL), with a team batting average of .245 or worse on the season (NL) are 44-12 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 The Red Sox currently have 11 players on the covid list and Im betting that has them in a uneasy situation as far as team chemistry and energy goes.At 39-17, the Tampa Bay Rays have the best record in baseball since July 1 and must be respected in the underdog role. I know  Red Sox starter Chris Sale is 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA since returning from injury, but the Rays are seeing the ball well, and their starter today Yarbrough is a viable pitching option, and is backed the best bullpen in the league. Note: This season TB is a perfect 7-0 on the road as an underdog of +130 or more on the opening line . Im betting that mark stays perfect after todays tilt ends.

SALE is 14-21 against the money line in September games in his career. (Team's Record)

Play on the TB Rays to win 

Veteran right-hander Zach Davies (6-10, 4.91 ERA)goes to the hill for the Cubs today vs the Pirates. Davies is winless in his past seven starts, going 0-4 along  with a bloated 6.82 ERA during that span and Im betting his lopsided ERA stays the same or continues to inflate.In 17 career starts against the Pirates, Davies owns a  4.64 ERA. He has faced Pittsburgh three times this season, and garnered a 5.65 ERA.

Meanwhile, the Pirates  will  fire back with right-hander Wil Crowe (3-7, 5.46). Crowe has gone five starts without a victory and is seeking his first win since July 30 against Philadelphia. My projections and pitcher vs batting order rankings suggest that he will get lit up by the Cubs in this spot and help this score eclipse the total. 

Over is 5-0 in Pirates last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.

Over is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 games as a home favorite.

Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Chicago.

Play OVER

White Sox starter CEASE is 15-2  against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. (Team's Record) CEASE is 3-1 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 2.68 and a WHIP of 1.168 and 3-0 in his L/3 vs the Royals. 

MLB Home teams (KANSAS CITY) - team with a poor SLG (.410 or less) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or better) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than 30% are 6-39 L/5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the White Sox to win 

The Phillies' two biggest offensive weapons  ... Bryce Harper and  r Marlin J.T. Realmuto  have suddenly gone silent after a explosive run  . Harper is just 1-for-8 with a single. Realmuto is 2-for-8 with two singles, and neither player has scored a run or recorded and RBI. Today vs a solid right-hander Elieser Hernandez (1-1, 3.62 ERA) more offensive ineptness will be on todays agenda.  Note:Hernandez is 3-0 with a 3.93 ERA in five career appearances (three starts) versus the Phillies and gets my support in the underdog role here in this spot play.

Lefty Daniel Lynch (4-3, 4.47 ERA), one of the most promising of Kansas City's youthful starters, will get the ball against right-hander Reynaldo Lopez (3-1, 1.54).

Royals starter LYNCH is 6-1 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record) LYNCH is 6-1 against the money line in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record) Since returning from the minors July 25, LYNCH has been exceptional: going 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA in seven starts. The Royals won six of those games.

KANSAS CITY is 14-7 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season this season.Royals are 6-1 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.

White Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. American League Central.White Sox are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.

White Sox manager  La Russa has the advantage of a 9 1/2-game cushion in the AL Central standings and is not playing his team hard right now, as they all but have this thing wrapped up and staying healthy and strong, is more important right now, which gives the Royals who won the first game of this series, an edge in my humble opinion on a value line.

Play on KC Royals to win 

 The Astros (78-55) are coming off back-to-back shutout losses against the Seattle Mariners while seeing their division lead fall to 4 1/2 games over the Oakland Athletics and they will now be primed and hungry for a bounce back effort.

Padres starter ARRIETA is 1-10  against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season. (Team's Record)

Padres are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

MLB Road teams (HOUSTON) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than 30% are 35-5 L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Astros to win 

Brewers are off a big series with the Giants winning 3 of 4 and could now easily be in a letdown jet lagged spot as they travel back home off their West coast road trip . 

Cards starter WAINWRIGHT is 21-8 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) WAINWRIGHT is 12-2 against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) which was the case last time out. 

MLB home teams (MILWAUKEE) - team with a poor OBP (.310 or less) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 or better) -NL, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.100 or less over his last 10 games are 16-36 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on St.Louis to win 

The Giants will put , right-hander Logan Webb (8-3, 2.65 ERA), on the hill  to face Brewers lefty Eric Lauer (4-5, 3.61).Webb  owns a  1.47 ERA in his L/13 starts. Brewers starter Lauer formerly with the Padres knows the Giants well and has never lost to them going 3-0 with a viable 4.08 ERA in seven games, including six starts and is capable of slowing down a suddenly struggling SF offence that is averaging just 2.6 rpg in their L/7 trips to the diamonds. 

WEBB is 9-1 UNDER  vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season. (Team's Record) WEBB is 8-0 UNDER  in home games this season. (Team's Record)

MILWAUKEE is 13-3 UNDER as an underdog of +150 or more over the last 3 seasons.

MLB Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (MILWAUKEE) - with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts, after a game where their bullpen blew a save are 55-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 Since being acquired from the Washington Nationals at the trade deadline, Dodgers starter tonight  Scherzer is 4-0 with the Dodgers along with garnering a 1.55 ERA. SCHERZER is 14-4 UNDER  vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. (Team's Record) ATLANTA is 31-19 UNDER  in road games against right-handed starters this season. The Braves starting left hander  Max Fried (11-7, 3.54), is  4-0   along with a  1.36 ERA in five August starts. In two outings  against the Dodgers in last year's National League Championship Series, Fried was 0-1 in two starts with a 2.84 ERA in 12 2/3 innings of top tier work. I am betting on more of the same here this evening.

Under is 5-0 in Braves last 5 road games. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles.

MLB  Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (ATLANTA) - with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts, after a game where their bullpen blew a save are 54-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER 

Brett Anderson has seen his L/4  four consecutive trips to the hill end in  Milwaukee defeats and tonight Im betting that streak continues. Meanwhile, Giants starter  Gausman (12-5, 2.49 ERA),  has gone unbeaten in August, running up a 3-0 record and 3.16 ERA in five starts and looks to be the right side of this bet tonight as he he is backed by one on MLBs top bullpens. GAUSMAN is 10-3  against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)

SAN FRANCISCO is 21-4   against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 over the last 2 seasons

 MILWAUKEE is 9-15 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start this season.

MLB team (MILWAUKEE) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (NL), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.100 or better  over his last 10 games are 14-37 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the SF Giants to win 

OAKLAND is 40-17  against the money line vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse this season.OAKLAND is 44-16 against the money line against AL Central opponents over the last 3 seasons. Athletics are 7-2 in their last 9 vs. a team with a losing record. Athletics are 74-24 in their last 98 vs. American League Central.

DETROIT is 10-29  against the money line in home games after a 3 game span with an OBP of .260 or worse over the last 3 seasons.

Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog.Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series. Tigers are 37-82 in their last 119 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Tigers are 26-59 in their last 85 vs. American League West.Tigers are 64-148 in their last 212 vs. a team with a winning record.Tigers are 24-64 in their last 88 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

OAKLAND is 11-1 against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons.

Play on Oakland to win 

The Brewers send right-hander Brandon Woodruff (8-7, 2.38 ERA). The veteran hurler is coming off  one of his best outings of the season. He struck out 10 and scattered four hits in six shutout innings in a 4-1 win over the Cincinnati Reds in a 4-1 win and has momentum on his side.He has never pitched in San Francisco and is 0-0 with a 1.42 ERA in his two lifetime appearances against the Giants.  WOODRUFF is 21-6 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

MILWAUKEE is 11-1  against the money line in road games after allowing 1 run or less this season which was the case yesterday in a 3-1 win in game 1 of this series.

MILWAUKEE is 18-3  against the money line in road games vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6  or less errors/game in the second half of the season this season.

 MLB Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - poor hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA 2.70 or less) -NL, with an on base percentage of .285 or worse over their last 5 games are 29-60 L/5 seasons for a go against  68% conversion rate. 

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win 

The Marlins are 0-9 L/9  Elieser Hernandez starts when they won in his last start.

Brewers starter Burnes (8-4, 2.30 ERA) will start in the  series opener. He will be opposed by veteran right-hander Johnny Cueto (7-6, 3.73), who started the finale of the previous series. Burnes was in top form in his previous start against the Giants, allowing just one run in seven innings. He didn't get a decision in the win, but he did extend his unbeaten streak, which stands at 14 games. Rinse and repeat. MILWAUKEE is 16-4  against the money line in road games after a win by 4 runs or more this seasons which was the case last time out. 

The Giants won the last two meetings in this series back in Milwaukee in August. Note"  COUNSELL is 22-3 against the money line revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent as a home favorite as the manager of MILWAUKEE.

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SAN FRANCISCO) - NL team with a high slugging percentage (.430 or better ) against a team with a good bullpen (WHIP 1.350 or less ), cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 10 games are 30-12 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win