MARCUS STROMAN (R) vs. BRIAN JOHNSON (L)

 The pitching matchup might seem to favour the Blue Jays, but the Jays starter JOHNSON is 7-0  against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)  The Jays flounder a lot at the plate and must not be overestimated here and have struggled against LHP like Johnson , going just 11-23  against the money line against left-handed starters this season. It must also be noted that the the Blue Jays have lost 10 straight on the moneyline with Marcus Stroman as a road dog when they won in his last start.

JOHNSON is 8-0  against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

BOSTON is 22-7 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season.BOSTON is 23-5 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in day games this season.

The Blue Jays have lost 19 straight on the moneyline  in the last game of a series as a underdog of more than 130 when they are off a defeat in which they held the lead which happened yesterday at Fenway. 

Play on the Boston Red Sox to win on the moneyline 

KYLE HENDRICKS (R) vs. LUIS PERDOMO (R)

Padres starter Perdomo's will make his  third start since he returned from Triple-A El Paso on July 4. He is 0-1 in his first two outings back, allowing eight runs on 14 hits and seven walks with three strikeouts over 12 2/3 innings and could easily get lit up by the Cubs batting order here today.PERDOMO is 10-1 OVER  in home games after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.6 rpg going on the scoreboard. 

Meanwhile, Cubs starting hurler  Hendricks is 1-2 with a 5.20 ERA during the past month and has given up 17 runs (16 earned) on 30 hits and 12 walks in 27 2/3 innings.I expect the Padres 9 will also do some damage here and will help to contribute to this total being eclipsed. 

SAN DIEGO is 10-0 OVER in home games after a one run loss over the last 2 seasons, (which happened yesterday ) with a combined average of 10.5 rpg scored. 

CHICAGO CUBS are 21-9 OVER vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 10.3 rpg scored.

MLB Home teams (SAN DIEGO) - poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less ) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or less ), with a cold starting pitcher- ERA  of 7.00 or worse over his last 3 starts are 64-35 OVER L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

The Cubs have gone OVER the Total 7 straight times as a road 160-plus favorite off a game as a favorite that was tied at the end of the sixth inning. The average final score  averaged out to 12.28 rpg.

Play OVER 

Heaney (5-6, 3.84) has been one of the rare Angels pitchers to avoid injury. He is one of three Angels starters to make at least 16 starts. He has proved resilient but has not been fortunate enough to garner more wins than losses, and I'm betting he will be on the wrong side of W/L her/his Saturday evening. Note: Heaney yielded three runs over seven innings in his last start against the Dodgers on Sunday. He is 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA in three career starts against the Dodgers. HEANEY is 1-10  against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Angels are 0-6 in Heaneys last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Meanwhile, Wood enters the rematch hoping to pick up a winning decision after not factoring in the decision vs. the Angels on Sunday. The lefty has tossed six-plus innings in each of his past four starts, a stretch during which he’s 3-0 with a 2.88 ERA. He gets my support here tonight. 

Dodgers are 17-4 in their last 21 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter.

LA ANGELS are 8-17  against the money line against left-handed starters this season.

Angels are 2-12 in their last 14 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

Angels are 2-7 in the last 9 meetings in Los Angeles.

Angels are 1-10 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Dodgers are 8-2 in their last 10 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.LA ANGELS are 10-25  against the money line after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better over the last 2 seasons.  Manager ROBERTS of LAD  is 54-18 against the money line in home games after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games . 

Play on the LA Dodgers to win on the moneyline 

ZACK GREINKE (R) vs. SEAN NEWCOMB (L)

Newcomb (8-4, 3.44 ERA)  Is struggling of late as is evident by going a  combined 6 1/3 innings and giving up 10 runs in his last two trips to the hill. I'm betting the Backs bats don't let him off easily and accumulate some runs here that will help get us over the total. Meanwhile, Zack Greinke (9-5, 3.39 ERA) comes into the start with momentum, having won six of his past seven , but has still not been his usual dominant self despite of getting all star allocation this season. I expect the Braves a team that have averaged 4.9 rpg this season do also do some damage with this total getting eclipsed. 

 ATLANTA is 10-2 OVER  revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite this season with a combined average of 10.2 rpg scored. (Arizona beat the Braves yesterday 2-1)

MLB teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (ARIZONA) - with a team batting average of .245 or worse on the season (NL) against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP 2.000 or less  over his last 3 starts are 42-20 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

The Diamondbacks have gone OVER 11 straight times  when their line is within 20 cents of pickem off a road game in which they scored 3 runs or fewer and won with a combined average of 10.28 rpg scored, with no game failing to reach the 8 point totals plateau. 

Play OVER 

The Cards looked completely asleep at the wheel yesterday losing by a 9-1 count, and that does not bode well for them here this afternoon. The Cardinals  have lost 14 of their last 23 home games and are far from solid favs as a host.  Im betting things don't get much better,  with Cards rookie right-hander Jack Flaherty (3-4, 3.34)  on the hill to face the surging Reds (42-52), who have won 20 of their last 29 games . .Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

Reds Manager RIGGLEMAN is 10-3  against the money line in road games vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities  .

 The Cardinals has lost 5 straight  as a 130-plus home favorite after a game in which they had more strikeouts than hits.The Cincinnati Reds has won 6 straight  as a moneyline dog after a game in which they scored in at least three innings and hit multiple home runs.  Every win was by 2 or more  runs. 

ST LOUIS is 15-20 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (ST LOUIS) - off a loss by 8 runs or more to a division rival, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.100 or less over his last 10 games are just 16-26 L/21 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Cincinnati Reds to win on the moneyline 

Greinke, whose road ERA is 4.31 in nine starts, looks susceptible to being lit up here today, vs a Atlanta team that has proven itself dangerous this season offensively. 

The Diamondbacks have lost  19 straight when their line is within 20 cents of pickem off a game as a dog when their opponent's starter has a strikeout-per-walk ratio less than 1.97 on the season and it is not a series opener , which NewCombe the Braves starterhas. 

Diamondbacks are 6-14 in their last 20 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Diamondbacks are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.Diamondbacks are 8-22 in their last 30 vs. a team with a winning record.Diamondbacks are 5-14 in their last 19 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.Diamondbacks are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a winDiamondbacks are 7-16 in the last 23 meetings in Atlanta.

Play on the Atlanta Braves to win on the moneyline 

The White Sox  are well prepared for their third straight win as they send Reynaldo Lopez (4-6, 3.77 ERA)  to the hill . The hurler  will be looking for his third victory in his past four outings. The 24-year-old right-hander had won back-to-back starts before he allowed three runs and six hits in just 4 2/3 innings last week against the Houston Astros. I'll forgive that effort vs a side that could easily be World Series Champs this season. Lopez is 2-0 with a 3.28 ERA in four career starts against the Royals and gets my support in this spot.

Meanwhile, the Royals starter DUFFY is 4-15  against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

KANSAS CITY is 7-25  against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

RENTERIA is 31-18 against the money line in home games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season in all games he has managed since 1997.

Play on the Chicago White Sox to win on the moneyline 

Reds RH Matt Harvey (4-5, 4.80 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Carlos Martinez (6-4, 3.05)

Martinez won his third straight start Saturday after allowing one run on six hits over seven innings in a 3-2 victory at San Francisco and enters tis game as solid option in top form. The  righty thrower owns a 1-1 record along  with a stable 2.70 ERA in three starts against Cincinnati this season,  and has over powered the Reds batting order recording 23 strikeouts (16 2/3 innings).Reds are 25-55 in their last 80 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

Cardinals are 34-16 in Martinezs last 50 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Cardinals are 8-3 in Martinezs last 11 starts vs. Reds.

Meanwhile, the Reds starter Harvey  is 8-20 L/28 against the money line in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in his career. (Team's Record) Reds are  also 1-4 in Harveys last 5 road starts and are fade material here, where Harvey has pitched his worst ball this season recording a bloated .5.21 ERA in 9 away starts and does not matchup well vs this Cards batting order according to my power rankings data.

CINCINNATI is 5-20  against the money line vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing 0.35 or less SB's/game this season.

After exploding for 14 runs in win on Wednesday the Cards followed that up with a clunker and lost a 4-0 decision, but in the recent past have proven resilient off a loss going 4-0 after a defeat  the last four times it happened. I'm betting they bounce back today. Note:

Reds are 4-17 in the last 21 meetings.Play on the St.Louis Cardinals on the moneyline to win 

COLE HAMELS (L) vs. ALEX COBB (R)

Cobb will make his scheduled start after a blister forced him to leave his previous start early. He took the loss in that outing after allowing five earned runs on seven hits and one walk in five innings and is fade material here in this spot. Cobb is 0-4 at home this season along with a bloated 5.71 ERA.  Meanwhile, Cole Hamels the Rangers hurler, despite of struggling of late, is still a decent pitcher, who has his pitched his best ball on the road garnering a steady .2.57 ERA in 9 trips to the hill. 

Rangers manager Jeff Banister is confident Hamels will bounce back.

"Very uncharacteristic," Banister said after the latest poor outing. "For me, Cole looked as strong as he's been all year long. ... Cole will be all right."

Rangers are 33-12 in Hamels' last 45 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Rangers are 20-9 in Hamels' last 29 starts during game 1 of a series.Orioles are 1-10 in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.Orioles are 3-8 in their last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter.COBB is 0-10 L/10 against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse this season. (Team's Record).HAMELS is 11-2 against the money line when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

MLB team (BALTIMORE) - bad offensive team (4.2or less runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 4.70)-AL, in July games are 26-54 L/5 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Texas Rangers to win on the moneyline 

Nationals RH Max Scherzer (11-5, 2.33 ERA) vs. Mets LH Steven Matz (4-6, 3.31)

This will be Scherzer's first start of the season against the Mets. Although he has been solid this month, he has not been his usual dominant self in his last two outings with a 4.85 ERA and 12 strikeouts in 13 innings and looks ripe to be taken advantage of by a Mets order that despite of struggling to score have on occasion mustered enough talent to light up opposing hurlers. A few added runs will be a totals breaker here, to the upper side of the number. I also know Matz the Mets starter is in top form, but the Nationals cannot be underestimated in their offensive abilities as recently they put up 14 and 18 runs in two separate tilts. 

The Nationals have gone OVER 15 of the L/16 times  in the first game of a series with no rest as a 140+ favorite off a road game in which they scored in at most two separate innings.All games have at least reached the 7 run plateau , with the average combined score of those 16 games clicking in at 10.88 rpg. 

Play OVER 

Yankees RH Luis Severino (14-2, 2.12 ERA) vs. Indians RH Corey Kluber (12-4, 2.49)

Corey Kluber the Tribes starter tonight has been a home 11 times since 2012, with his team losing 9 of the 11 games. After a fast start to his current campaign, Kluber has been average at best of late going  2-2 with a 4.39 ERA. Meanwhile, Severino (14-2, 2.12 ERA) has not lost since June 10. In five starts since then he is 5-0 with a 1.67 ERA.The Yankees lead the American League with a 2.74 bullpen ERA while Cleveland has a league-worst 5.37 ERA for its relievers.

SEVERINO is 15-1 against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season. (Team's Record) .SEVERINO is 16-1 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record) CLEVELAND is 6-10   against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities this season. 

The Yankees are 3-0 against the Indians this season after and get the nod again Severino on the hill. It must be noted that the Indians have lost 5 straight in the first game of a home series when they are seeking same season revenge for a loss.

Play on the NY Yankees to win on the money line  

WADE MILEY (L) vs. JAMESON TAILLON (R

Miley the Brewers starter will return from the 60-day DL to make his first Brewers start since May 8, when he strained his right oblique against the Indians in his second game back from a groin injury. The coaches say he is healthy and looking strong, and according to my power rankings matches up well vs the Pirates. 

MILEY is 9-1 against the money line with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL) over dating back to last season. (Team's Record) 

Pirates are 2-9 in their last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter.PITTSBURGH is 17-36  against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season. MILWAUKEE is 18-8  against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

Meanwhile, Tallion the Pirates starter has been very inconsistent this season, and according to my power rankings data does not matchup well vs the Brewers. Taillon is 1-4 with a 3.70 ERA in eight starts against the Brewers, including a loss and a no-decision this season.TAILLON is 3-9  against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Pirates are 0-4 in Taillons last 4 home starts.

Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.Brewers are 38-18 in their last 56 games following a loss.Brewers are 21-10 in their last 31 vs. a team with a losing record.MILWAUKEE is 38-16  against the money line in night games this season.

The Pirates have lost 14 straight and 12 by multiple runs in the first game of a home series with no rest after a game as a home dog in which they held a multiple-run lead.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MILWAUKEE) - average offensive team (4.0 to 4.5 runs/game) against a decent starter (ERA=3.70 to 4.20)-NL, with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season is 45-15 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Milwaukee to win on the moneyline 

KENTA MAEDA (R) vs. JOEY LUCCHESI (L)

Padres starter Luchessi a rookie left-hander has made four starts since he returned from a right hip strain, and he’s looked very good in the last three.The young hurler , who returned June 20 from a five-week stint on the disabled list with a strained glute muscle, has allowed two runs on five hits and seven walks with 14 strikeouts over 14 1/3 innings in his last three starts. Lucchesi,   has pitched 14 2/3 innings against the Dodgers, allowing one run on 11 hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts and looks like a viable underdog option in this spot.

The Dodgers have struggled  mightily vs LHP this season averaging just 3.7 rpg in production, via a lowly .225 team BA. 

Meanwhile, the Dodgers will send   right-hander Kenta Maeda (5-5, 3.24 ERA),  to the hill vs the Fathers.  Overall, Maeda is 4-3 with a slightly bloated 4.78 ERA in 11 career appearances (10 starts) against the Padres. Key here however, is that the  Padres have hit .327 against Maeda. Note: MAEDA is 3-7  against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season. (Team's Record)

I know the Padres bats have been slumping of late but they have proved resilient after offensive droughts going 13-4  against the money line after batting .225 or worse over a 5 game span this season.

A DODGERS are 5-12  against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season.

The Padres have cashed 7 straight for their backers as a 140-plus home dog after a game in which they hit multiple home runs and it is not a series opener. (Which happened last night)

Play on the Padres to win on the moneyline 

MIKE LEAKE (R) vs. GARRETT RICHARDS (R

Richards gave up three runs (two earned) over 5 1/3 innings against the Mariners on Wednesday in his first start since returning from the disabled list. He is 7-4 with a 3.06 ERA in 21 career appearances (13 starts) against Seattle.

Meanwhile, Leake has faced the Halos three times this season, including his last outing, when he lasted four innings and allowed four runs (three earned) on nine hits. He is 1-2 with a 4.11 ERA in the three games, all at Safeco Field and according to my matchup rankings is fade material in this spot.

RICHARDS is 28-8 against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 in his career. (Team's Record)

LEAKE is 14-24 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

MLB  favorites with a opening money line of -150 or more (LA ANGELS) - with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.100 or less  over his last 10 games are 35-4 L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Angels to win on the moneyline 

IAN KENNEDY (R) vs. AARON SLEGERS (R)

Kansas City, has lost 10 straight and 28 of 32. The Royals have lost 11 consecutive series dating back to the end of May and have a record only a mother could love. Meanwhile, the Twins have suddenly awoken to post 5 straight victories, 

Ian Kennedy the Royals starter has gone 15 starts without a win dating back to April 7, the longest active winless streak in the majors. The righty hurler, was 0-3 along with a bloated 6.43 mark in five outings last season vs the Twins and is fade material here in this spot. 

KENNEDY is 1-12 against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record)

Meanwhile, the Twins will sendIn a spot-start on Thursday that also served as an audition for Minnesota's fifth rotation spot, Slegers picked up his first career win as he held the Orioles to one run over six innings and  in his season debut on May 30 against Kansas City,  he allowed just two runs and six hits in 5 1/3 frames of relief.

Note: KANSAS CITY is 12-47  against the money line against right-handed starters this season.

MINNESOTA is 17-3 against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than 20% since 1997. 

Royals are 0-9 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Royals are 0-7 in Kennedys last 7 road starts.Twins are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

MLB Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 on the season-AL, starting a pitcher who walked 1 or less hitters each of his last 2 outings are 29-70 L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Minnesota to win on the moneyline

AARON NOLA (R) vs. COREY OSWALT (R)

Game #2 Double Header 

In tonights  nightcap of a two game set , ace Philadelphia right-hander Aaron Nola (11-2, 2.41 ERA),   is scheduled to oppose New York rookie right-hander Corey Oswalt (0-1, 7.94 ERA).

The pitching matchup favours the Phillies vs an opponent that is  8-25 since May 31 -- including 5-21 in June, which was the third-worst month in franchise history.  NOLA is 10-1  against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. (Team's Record) NY METS are 8-21  against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season.

The Mets have lost 24 straight as a home dog of more than 135 vs a divisional opponent that is ahead of them in the standings and it is not a series opener.

MLB underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (NY METS) - below average hitting team (AVG .255 or less ) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.00 or less ) -NL, ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 10 games are 20-86 L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Yes, we are laying a little lumber here, but the odds considering the matchup is skewed in our favour and worth the extra outlay.

Play on the Philadelphia Phillies to win on the moneyline 

LUIS CASTILLO (R) vs. JON LESTER (L)

Reds RH Luis Castillo (5-8, 5.53 ERA) vs. Cubs LH Jon Lester (11-2, 2.25)

Lester has been in fine form this season, but my power rankings suggest the potent Cincinnati Reds batting lineup matches up well against him. Lester in his career is 6-1 vs the Reds but , owns a slightly bloated 4.07 ERA in those meetings. Lesters two last starts overall have been wins, but a combined 21 and 13 runs went on the board in those tilts, ( 11-10) (9-4). His team is backing him with support and I'm betting nothing changes today as the Cubs take care of business vs the up and down right hurler Luis Castillo who isles than dependable as is evident by his 5.53 overall ERA and 6.70 road ERA in 10 starts. Note: The Cubs have averaged 7.9 rpg in their L/7 trips to diamonds. 

Over is 6-2 in Cubs last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 20-7-3 in Cubs last 30 Sunday games.Under is 11-4 in Cubs last 15 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 13-5 in Cubs last 18 games following a win.Over is 10-4 in Cubs last 14 overall.Over is 10-4 in Cubs last 14 on grass.Under is 10-4 in Cubs last 14 home games.Over is 5-2 in Cubs last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Over is 7-3 in Cubs last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 7-3 in Cubs last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 6-1 in Lesters last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 8-2-1 in Lesters last 11 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 8-3 in Lesters last 11 starts during game 3 of a series.Over is 8-3-1 in Lesters last 12 starts vs. National League Central.Over is 8-3 in Lesters last 11 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 10-4 in Lesters last 14 home starts.

Over is 3-0-1 in Reds last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 during game 3 of a series.Over is 8-1 in Reds last 9 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 7-1-1 in Reds last 9 vs. National League Central.Over is 5-1-1 in Reds last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 4-1 in Reds last 5 Sunday games.Over is 8-2-1 in Reds last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 12-3-2 in Reds last 17 games vs. a left-handed starter.Over is 7-2-1 in Reds last 10 overall.Over is 7-2-1 in Reds last 10 on grass.Over is 3-1-1 in Reds last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 3-1-1 in Reds last 5 games following a loss.Over is 6-2-1 in Reds last 9 road games vs. a left-handed starter.Over is 7-1 in Castillos last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.Over is 5-1 in Castillos last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 4-1 in Castillos last 5 Sunday starts.Over is 4-1 in Castillos last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.Over is 4-1 in Castillos last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Castillos last 5 starts vs. National League Central.Over is 6-2 in Castillos last 8 road starts.Over is 7-3 in Castillos last 10 starts on grass.Over is 7-3 in Castillos last 10 starts overall.

Over is 8-1-2 in Lesters last 11 starts vs. Reds.Over is 4-1 in Lesters last 5 home starts vs. Reds.Over is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Chicago.Over is 35-13-3 in the last 51 meetings.

The Cubs have gone OVER 8 straight times with Jon Lester as a favorite when they won his last three starts. Chicago has gone over the total by an average of 5.81 runs in these 8 tilts and Im betting on more OVER action today.

Play on the OVER 

Newcomb the Braves lefty starter had a bad outing last time out, but the heat was unbearable as was a swirling wind. Prior that outing he was 7-1 with a 2.07 ERA in the 11 previous starts and I'm betting he will revert back  to that form Sunday when he faces Milwaukee. The Brewers have struggled vs southpaws this season, hitting .20 points under the Mendoza line, .230 while collecting just 138 hits in 600 AB . 

Meanwhile, The Twins couldn’t solve Guerra the Brewers starter when he hurled five shutout innings of two-hit ball. Guerra has allowed more than three runs in a start just once since May 9 and continues to be in top form for the Brewers and Im expecting more top tier work again. He is also backed with a solid bullpen that will aid in his start limiting the Braves offence.

Under is 40-19-1 in Brewers last 60 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Guerras last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.Under is 4-0 in Guerras last 4 starts vs. National League East.Under is 13-2 in Guerras last 15 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Guerras last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 5-1-1 in Guerras last 7 home starts.Under is 14-3 in Guerras last 17 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 18-4 in Guerras last 22 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 12-3 in Guerras last 15 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 7-2 in Guerras last 9 starts on grass.Under is 7-2 in Guerras last 9 starts overall.

Under is 19-6-1 in Brewers last 26 Sunday games.Under is 21-7-1 in Brewers last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Over is 8-3 in Brewers last 11 vs. National League East.Under is 8-3 in Brewers last 11 during game 4 of a series.Under is 55-22-1 in Brewers last 78 games following a loss.Under is 44-18-1 in Brewers last 63 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game

There is a good umpire on board for a low scoring game: Under is 7-1-2 in Wolcotts last 10 games behind home plate. 

GUERRA is 17-6 UNDER L/23 in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game . (Team's Record) with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in at 6.3 rpg. GUERRA is 7-0 UNDER in day games this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 4.8 rpg scored.GUERRA is 15-4 UNDER  at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6 rpg scored.

MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less, a good team (54% to 62%) playing a team with a winning record are 96-39 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

TREVOR RICHARDS (R) vs. TANNER ROARK (R)

Roark the Nationals starter has not looked all that great of late, but according to my power rankings pitcher vs offence charts matches up well vs Miami, and could have a fast reversal of fortunes in this spot. It must be noted Roark has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts against the Marlins and I'm betting he keeps that momentum alive in this rematch. Meanwhile, Trevor Richards is a pitcher that continues to gain confidence and has shown composure of late. He is not easily rattled, and I expect he will temper the Nats offence here today, as the home teams comes off an offensive explosion yesterday, and could experience a battery draining reversion to the mean that has seen them average just 3.9 rpg in day time games this season. 

Under is 6-2-1 in Roarks last 9 starts vs. Marlins.Under is 4-0 in Richards' last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Yesterday the Nationals unloaded the Marlins in a big way winning by a 13-4 count. Previous to that they won 3-2,  after winning the first game of the series by a 14-12 count. With that said, the it must be noted that the Nationals have gone UNDER in the last 9  game of a home series after a game in which they hit multiple home runs, staying under by an average of 3.72 rpg. The last 7 games have not seen more than 6 combined runs scored and none of these 9 games have eclipsed the 9 run totals plateau offered here today by the books.

Under is 7-0-2 in umpire Reynolds' last 9 games behind home plate.

MLB Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (WASHINGTON) - after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival, in July games are 88-43 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the UNDER 

WEI-YIN CHEN (L) vs. MAX SCHERZER (R)

LHP Wei-Yin Chen (2-5, 5.55) starts for the Marlins and has a 9.85 ERA in seven road starts this season and looks like cannon fodder once again, and could easily all by himself facilitate a score that eclipses this beatable number. In his last seven starts, Chen is 1-3 with a 5.85 ERA. Meanwhile, Scherzer has lost four consecutive decisions for the first time since 2009-10, with complaints about of lack of run support. Today he should finally get the help he needs, why he himself may not do all that well vs a Marlins offence that according to my own power rankings actually matches up well against him.MIAMI is 11-2 OVER in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season with a combined average of 12.7 rpg scored.MIAMI in 28 games as a road underdog of +150 or more this season have seen a combined average of 11.4 rpg scored. 

WASHINGTON is 13-2 OVER  vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season over the last few seasons with a combined average of 12.3 rpg scored.

Over is 4-0 in Chens last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Over is 7-2 in Marlins last 9 road games.Over is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 4-1-1 in Scherzers last 6 home starts vs. Marlins.

The Marlins have gone OVER 16 straight times by an average of 4.88 rpg as a road 170+ dog after they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent.

MLB Road teams where the total is 7 or less (MIAMI) - bad offensive team (3.8 runs/game or less) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.00 or less) (NL), starting a pitcher who gave up 2  roles earned runs in his last 2 outings are 46-19 OVER L/21 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the OVER 

COLE HAMELS (L) vs. MICHAEL FIERS (R)

The Tigers took out the Rangers yesterday in game 2 of this series . It must be noted however, that the Texas Rangers have won 8 straight on the moneyline in franchise history with Cole Hamels when they are a favorite and seeking immediate revenge for a loss as a favorite. With Hamels pitching his best best ball on the road this season, as is evident by garnering 3-1 record along with a stingy 2.05 ERA in 8 starts, he and is team look like a viable option to keep this streak alive.

Hamels  owns a singy 1.80 ERA in three career starts at Comerica Park.

HAMELS  team is 19-3  against the money line when he starts vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game in the second half of the season in his career. 

Fiers the Tigers starter owns an 8.10 ERA in seven career outing vs the Rangers (six starts).

DETROIT is 16-36 against the money line against AL West opponents over the last 2 seasons. DETROIT is 7-22  against the money line in home games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Texas Rangers to win on the moneyline 

The Rockies are off a a 7-1 win yesterday, where they left a lot of runners on base vs their hosts Seattle. The score could have been even more one sided if thats possible. It must be noted however, the The Rockies  have won 10 straight as a dog off a road game in which they left 18+ men on base. 

COLORADO is also 9-3  against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +200 this season and must not be underestimated.

Colorado will send left-hander Kyle Freeland (8-6, 3.25) to the hill to face the Seattle Mariners this Saturday afternoon  Freeland has made one career start against the Mariners, a 6-3 victory at Safeco Field last season. He pitched six innings in that game and allowed two runs on six hits. In five career interleague starts, Freeland is a perfect 4-0 while garenring  a 2.14 ERA and gets my support here. 

Yes, the powerful Paxton goes to the hill for the Mariners, but with Colorados bats finally starting to heat up no pitcher is safe. Note: Rockies star offensive weapon Charlie Blackmon is back in form and hit a home run last night.During the Rockies recent' four-game win streak, Blackmon is batting .471 (8-for-17) with two homers.Blackmon has a .305 career average against southpaws like Paxton. Of the left-handed batters with a minimum of 750 plate appearances, the only ones in baseball history with a better average against southpaws are Ichiro Suzuki, Tony Gwynn, Rod Carew and Larry Walker. When this guy is on fire, the Rockies offence feeds off of him. It must also be noted that the Rockies have won 9 straight on the moneyline as a road underdog after a game in which Charlie Blackmon hit a home run. 

Play on Colorado to win on the moneyline 

Two top tier starting pitchers Severino (13-2, 1.98 ERA) and Happ (10-4, 4.03) go to the hill today to face each other in a tilt I have pegged as a pitcher duel.Severino has looked good vs the  Blue Jays this season going  2-0 with a 0.71 ERA in two starts and has currently on a 13 2./3 scoreless innings streak. In 17 career starts against the Yankees, Happ is  8-3 along with a 3.53 ERA.

 Yesterday the Blue Jays started the series with a 6-2 victory , and chased the Yankees starter from the game early. Its very important to note however, that The Yankees have gone under 18 in a row  as a road favorite of more than 120 after a game in which their starter pitched less than three innings and it is not a series opener.The last 17 have only seen  three games reach the 8 run Totals plateau and non eclipsing it. The average combined score clicked in a 6.89 rpg.

NY YANKEES are 15-6 UNDER  on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season with a combined average score of 7.2 rpg scored.TORONTO is 21-9 UNDER against division opponents this season with the average score of 7.9 rpg scored.

Under is 9-1 in Yankees last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 on astroturf.Under is 24-5 in Yankees last 29 overall.Under is 14-3 in Yankees last 17 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 14-3 in Yankees last 17 road gamesUnder is 35-16-2 in Happs last 53 starts vs. American League East.Under is 36-17-3 in Happs last 56 starts following a team loss in their previous game.Under is 21-10-3 in Happs last 34 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.Play UNDER 

Play UNDER 

MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ (R) vs. FREDDY PERALTA (R)

Right-hander Mike Foltynewicz gets the nod from me here in tis spot as he starts for the Braves.  Foltynewicz owns a minuscule 0.87 ERA over his last nine starts, holding opponents to a .146 average during that stretch with 64 strikeouts in 52 innings.Needless to say , getting him on a value line looks very much like a blue chip investment option.

Opponents scored more than one run against him in one of those above mentioned trips to the hill . The top tier right hander has held opponents scoreless in five of them, including his last outing when the Cardinals managed just one hit against him in five innings.Foltynewicz has owned  the Brewers during his four seasons in the big leagues, recording a 1.48 ERA in four career starts against Milwaukee. He faced them twice last season, allowing two earned runs (five total) over 11 innings while striking out 15 and is my choice to deliver us some bankroll expanding profits in this spot vs the host Brewers. 

A key perfect trend also indicates the The Braves are 5-0 on the moneymen with Mike Foltynewicz as a underdog when they won his last three starts , which has just happened.

I know the Braves have struggled a little bit of late, but they have proven resilient, and show good fight going forward as is evident by ATLANTA going  10-1  against the money line after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. I also know that the Braves face a good young pitcher in Peralleta but they have proven themselves vs strong pitching opponents, going 10-3 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.050 or better this season.

MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (MILWAUKEE) - on a streak where they have hit a home run in 10 consecutive games, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 0.800 or less over his last 3 starts are just 15-27 L/21 seasons for a long term go against 64% for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Atlanta Braves to win on the moneyline 

RYAN STANEK (R) vs. JACOB DEGROM (R)

Stanek the Mets starter today vs the struggling offence of the NY Mets has been in top form   in spot starts as an "opener" for the Rays. he recently had a  streak of 12 consecutive scoreless trips to the hill  halted in a  relief loss at Miami this past Monday . But the confident hurler  bounced back quickly with two shut out innings of relief the next day against the Marlins, striking out three in the process.  Note: Stanek is the only pitcher in history with seven straight scoreless starts, something I have taken into consideration as have the lines makers. Meanwhile, his Mets pitching opponent Jacob DeGrom, despite of owning the best ERA in the National League, continues to be frustrated, thanks to a lack of run support and clutch hitting by a offence that is averaging just 3.2 rpg on the season at home via a ugly .215 BA. He has made eight starts at home, posting a 2-2 record despite a 1.90 ERA and .199 batting average against. I expect he will be in top form again, vs a TB side that has averaged just 3.2 rpg in interleage action this season. Im expecting both pitchers and their bullpens to highlight what I'm betting will be a lower scoring fair that fails to eclipse the total. 

Note:The Mets  have gone 14 straight times in the first game of a series with rest as a home favorite off a game as a dog when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost ( That happened to Degrom last time out). The L/13 have not seen more than 7 runs scored, with the average combined score clicking in at 4.3 rpg.  The L/8 have seen 4 shutouts, and a combined average score of 3.5 rpg scored. 

The Rays had a day off yesterday:

Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 games following an off day.

Under is 3-0-1 in Rays last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15Under is 12-4 in Rays last 16 road games vs. a right-handed starterUnder is 5-0 in Mets last 5 interleague home games.Under is 6-1 in Mets last 7 interleague games vs. a right-handed starterUnder is 6-1 in Mets last 7 interleague games.

Play UNDER 

PAUL BLACKBURN (R) vs. CARLOS CARRASCO (R)

A's will send Paul Blackburn (2-2, 6.46 ERA) to face the Tribe tonight. I know is stats don't look like their of the top tier variety , but what is important here is not his overall numbers, but the facts that in his last start on June 29 in Oakland, Blackburn owned the  Indians, pitching 6 1/3 scoreless innings and giving up just three hits in a 3-1 victory. . In two career starts against the Indians, Blackburn is 1-0 with a 2.19 ERA.

BLACKBURN is 9-3  against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

Meanwhile, Cleveland will fire back  with the rusty Carlos Carrasco (8-5, 4.24), who will make his first start since June 16, a 9-3 loss to Minnesota. It will take him some time to get things going in the right direction, something he wasn't doing before being sidelined. 

There is a lot of value sitting on the table here, and even though there is never great value with consistently taking dogs on the blind in MLB (myth) , there are obviously consistent spots where underdogs can pay big dividends. This one has the  potential to pay out, according to my investment chart parameters. 

CARRASCO is 3-10  against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

OAKLAND is 13-4  against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.OAKLAND is 9-4  against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season.

The Indians have lost 9 straight in the first game of a series with rest after a win as a road favorite in which they never trailed.

MLBRoad underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (OAKLAND) - revenging a home loss vs opponent of 6 runs or more, starting a pitcher who walked 1 hitters or less each of his last 2 outings are 35-22 L/21 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Oakland As to win on the moneyline 

JAIME BARRIA (R) vs. MARCO GONZALES (L)

The Angels will send rookie right-hander Jaime Barria (5-4, 3.40 ERA) to the mound Thursday in place of left-hander Tyler Skaggs, who was placed on the disabled list Wednesday with a right adductor strain. Barria suffered a 6-3 loss on June 12 at Seattle, allowing three runs (two earned) on eight hits in five innings and is my go against starter in this spot. 
(Team's Record)Angels are 0-4 in Barrias last 4 starts.

The Mariners are scheduled to start left-hander Marco Gonzales (8-5, 3.77 ERA). He is off a very good effort last time out , and is 9-0 against the money line after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing in his career.. 
Mariners are 4-0 in Gonzales' last 4 home starts.Mariners are 6-0 in Gonzales' last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Mariners are 4-0 in Gonzales' last 4 starts vs. American League West.
LA ANGELS are 10-24 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season.
Angels are 1-10 in their last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter.

Angels are 0-6 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series.LA ANGELS are 4-16 against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 62% or better ) this season and are 4-16 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better this season.

SEATTLE is 26-9 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season and is 18-4 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher this season. SEATTLE is 39-16 against the money line in night games this season. 

Play on Seattle to win on the money line

ERIC LAUER (L) vs. SHELBY MILLER (R)

Miller the DBacks starter today looks very vulnerable in his current form as is evident by his 0-2 record along with an 11.42 ERA in two starts this season after returning from a 14-month absence following Tommy John surgery in last May, 2017. He has given up 15 hits and 11 runs in 8 2/3 innings. I know the Padres are in a slump, but could easily get something going here today in this spot. Note: MILLER is 4-15 against the money line vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in the second half of the season in his career (Team's Record) MILLER is 8-15 in his career against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175. (Team's Record) Diamondbacks are 2-10 in Millers last 12 home starts.Diamondbacks are 2-11 in Millers last 13 starts vs. National League West.Diamondbacks are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

SAN DIEGO is 16-9 against the money line after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. ( The Fathers are currently on a 3 game losing streak)

The Padres have won 6 straight on the moneyline with no rest as a road underdog in the first game of a series vs a divisional opponent that is ahead of them in the standings and they are off a road series.

Play on the San Diego Padres to win on the moneyline

DYLAN COVEY (R) vs. SAL ROMANO (R)

Covey the Pale Hose starter today is fade material in this spot  in his current form which has produced a   0-2  record along with a ugly  12.71 ERA in his last three starts  .He is also off allowing nine runs on eight hits in 2 1/3 innings of an 11-3 setback at Texas.

White Sox are 1-11 in Coveys last 12 road starts.

White Sox are 0-6 in Coveys last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 3 of a series.

Yesterday Chicago showed rare offensive explosion in a 12-8 win vs the host Reds.  But a long term historical trend favours the Reds to bounce back here.

The Reds are 27-0  L/27 as a home 135-plus favorite off a game as a favorite in which they allowed six-plus runs which happened yesterday.

CHI WHITE SOX are 3-21  against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last couple of seasons. 

Cincinnati is 7-2 in interleave play this season, and have averaged close to a .300 team BA, and scored an average of more than 7 rpg. 

I am not a big proponent of laying heavy lumber, in money line situations, but this extra out lay , is worth it, according to my investment chart perimeters . 

Play on the Cincinnati Reds to win on the money line 

Garrett Cole . (R) vs. MIKE MINOR (L)

Cole the Astros starter today , had a 7 game win streak end lat time out, but will be more than prepared to bounce back in this spot . The righty hurler has allowed just eight hits while going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 33 strikeouts over 20 innings in three very strong starts against the Rangers this season and is 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA in four career outings.Cole gets the nod vs an inconsistent Texas attack that averages just 4.3 rpg vs righties via a lowly .230 BA.
Meanwhile, Minor his Texas pitching opponent is also in top form, but my own power rankings suggest that he does matchup well vs this top tier Houston offence. Minor is 0-1 with a 5.74 ERA in three starts against Houston this season and 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA in nine career appearances (six starts) vs the Astros. Note: The Astros have been their most dangerous on the road this season, averaging 5.7 rpg.

Astros are 14-3 in Coles last 17 startsAstros are 5-0 in Coles last 5 starts vs. American League West.Rangers are 0-4 in Minors last 4 starts vs. American League WestRangers are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Rangers are 8-21 in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600Astros are 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Texas and have won 7 straight overall in this series.HOUSTON is 13-0 against the money line in road games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.HOUSTON is 19-4  against the money line in road games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season.

The Rangers are 1-16 L/17 on the money line as a home dog when they are off two losses in which they never led with 15 of those loses coming by multiple runs.

MLB Road teams like (HOUSTON) - allowing 3.9 or less runs/game on the season (AL), in July games are a solid long term investment option going 159-105 L/21 seasons for a 60%+ conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Houston Astros to win on the money line 

EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ (L) vs. ERICK FEDDE (R)

Rodriguez has struggled a bit of late, but is still a solid option here in this spot play vs a struggling Washington Nationals team that is averaging just 3.4 rpg vs lefty throwers via a lowly .213 BA. Overall, Rodriguez is having a top tier season, holding opponents to a .249 Batting average.
Red Sox are 7-0 in Rodriguezs last 7 interleague starts. Red Sox are 5-0 in Rodriguezs last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.
RODRIGUEZ is 23-6 against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) WASHINGTON is 8-16 against the money line against left-handed starters this season.Nationals are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.

Nationals are 0-5 in their starters Feddes last 5 home starts. 

WASHINGTON has lost 16 of 24 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season this season. BOSTON is 22-7 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season and is is 17-5 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 this season. BOSTON is 21-5 against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 2 seasons.

MLB Road teams like (BOSTON) - allowing 3.9 or less runs/game on the season (AL), in July games are solid long term sides to back, going 159-105 L/21 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Boston Red Sox to win on the money line

IVAN NOVA (R) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)

The Dodgers smashed the Pirates yesterday by a 17-1 count and now I'm expecting a natural letdown situation to occur offensively for the Dodgers here , which I'm betting helps facilitate a lower scoring affair.Note:  The Pirates have gone under 10 straight times  on the road after they allowed 12+ hits which happened in their last game. No score eclipsed the 7 run plateau, and the 10 games went under by an average of 3.8 rpg. The Pirates are 2-16-1 O/U as a road dog off a road game in which they lost by 5+ runs with no game over the 19 game span eclipsing the 7 run plateau. 

Two pitchers who have recently come of the DL go head to head tonight in LA as Clayton Kershaw of LA takes on Ivan Nova of the Pirates. In four starts since coming off the DL because of a sprained right finger, Nova is 2-0 with a 1.75 ERA.Nova  ince coming off the DL and has given up one or no runs in three of those outings. Note:Under is 15-2 in Novas last 17 starts during game 2 of a series.

Meanwhile,  Kershaw will be making his third start since coming off the disabled list for his most recent back injury  and is showing upward momentum and strength and owns a 2.77 ERA since his return, and I'm betting this will be his strongest start to date as the rust will now completely worn off. .KERSHAW is 17-5 UNDER in his career in home games in July . (Team's Record) with a combined average score of 5.3 rpg scored.

Under is 4-0 in Kershaws last 4 home starts vs. Pirates.

Under is 24-9-4 in Pirates last 37 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

MLB Road teams where the total is 7 or less (PITTSBURGH) - average offensive team (4.0 to 4.5 runs/game) against a very good starter (ERA 3.00 or less) (NL), in the second half of the season are 73-33 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. ( The que numbers are even better at 7.5)

Play UNDER 

Right hander Eflin  the Phillies starter is in top form and owns a  5-0 record along  with a stingy 1.76 ERA in his L/5 starts and once again looks like a viable option on the money line in this spot.Orioles are 3-11 in Cobbs last 14 starts. I know Eflin is backed by a exhausted bullpen, but I'm betting on him going long and strong . Note:BALTIMORE is just  17-42 against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season and is 4-20  against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season.Orioles are also just 3-12 in their last 15 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.Meanwhile.Cobb the Os starter is  winless  in his last four starts, and this past  Wednesday allowed five runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 innings of a no-decision versus Seattle.

Orioles are 3-11 in Cobbs last 14 starts.He owns a ugly 6.75 ERA on the season along with a 2-9 record and has registered an even uglier .6.90 ERA on the road .1730 WHIP allowing 67 hits in just 45 innings of substandard work.   PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 against the money line in home games with a tired bullpen - after 3 straight games throwing 4+ innings over the last 2 seasons.  BALTIMORE is 12-43  against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season and s 6-24 against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season.BALTIMORE is 2-18 against the money line revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less this season.Phillies are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

The Orioles have lost 14 straight on the money line  in the first game of a series with rest on the road after they scored in at most two separate innings.

MLB team (PHILADELPHIA) - off 2 consecutive one run wins over a division rival, starting a pitcher who gave up 2 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are 31-11 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (PHILADELPHIA) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season (NL), after a game where the bullpen threw 8 or more innings are 127-43 L/21 seasons for 74% conversion rate on the blind for bettors.

Play on Philadelphia to win on the money line 

Roark the Nationals hurler has been in a funk for a while now   He went 1-4 with a 6.08 ERA in five starts and one relief appearance in June, surrendering 18 earned runs in 26 2/3 innings of sub par work. He looked decent in his last outing but still looked erratic at times in is in unstable form at the moment and fade material vs a Boston Red Sox side that matches up well against him according to my power rankings . Meanwhile his pitching opponent from the BoSox Johnson  a southpaw allowed a run in four innings for the Red Sox Thursday night against the Angels in place of Steven Wright, who went on the disabled list with a knee injury earlier last week. With this being  Johnson's last chance to show his stuff as a starter  in the rotation with Drew Pomeranz close to returning, I'm betting he will be primed to perform.Red Sox are 7-0 in Johnsons last 7 starts.

WASHINGTON is 8-16  against the money line against left-handed starters this season.

ROARK is 1-7  against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. (Team's Record)ROARK is 5-11 against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)

BOSTON is 45-19  against the money line against right-handed starters this season.

Red Sox are 10-1 in their last 11 interleague road games.

Play on the Boston Red Sox to win on the money line

In his first 14 starts this year, Kluber the Tribes starter tonight vs the Royals was 10-2 with a 1.99 ERA. But in his last three starts, Kluber is 1-2 with a 6.59 ERA and struggling mightily. Meanwhile,Junis  the Royals starter has lost his L/6 starts along with a bloated 6.30 ERA and was beaten around for five runs on seven hits , including three homers - and three walks over five innings of sub standard work vs the Brewers last time out.Junis' last start against Cleveland came May 13. In a 6-2 loss to the Indians, he pitched 5 2/3 innings, allowing four runs and six hits with seven strikeouts and two walks.In three career appearances against Cleveland, Junis is 0-1 with a 5.93 ERA and could easily get beaten around again vs a side that my power rankings suggest does not matchup well against. I won't be surprised if the sometimes explosive Indians offence puts enough runs on the board to eclipse this total all by themselves.

KLUBER is 8-0 OVER  vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record)with a combined average score of 11.5 rpg scored.KLUBER is 39-22 OVER when the total is 8 to 8.5 since 1997. (Team's Record) with an average of 10 rpg scored.

Im betting a struggling KC offence does just enough damage here to help us eclipse the total. 

.

KANSAS CITY is 54-32 OVER L/86 as a home underdog of +175 or more with a combined average of 11.3 rpg scored. 

MLBRoad teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (CLEVELAND) - poor AL hitting team (AVG .260 or less ) against a team with a below average bullpen (ERA 4.50 or worse), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games are 53-21 OVER L/21 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER

KYLE GIBSON (R) vs. BRENT SUTER (L)

Gibson the Twins starter despite of decent overall numbers this season is beginning to go into a tailspin as is evident when he lost his second straight start and fell to 1-5 in his last eight trips to the hill this past  Wednesday after allowing five runs on   11 hits in a 6-1 loss at the Chicago White Sox.With Gibson in a down turn, and the Twins struggling away from home losing 25 of 40 games, this season, they are fade material, especially considering how tired their over used bullpen is. 

SUTER the Brewers starter is 11-2 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)Brewers are 4-0 in Suters last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.Brewers are 5-1 in Suters last 6 home starts.

MINNESOTA is 1-9  against the money line after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings this season.MINNESOTA is 3-14 against the money line after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more this season. ( Note: The Twins pitching staff has  just allowed 35 runs in a 3 game set vs the Cubs )

MILWAUKEE is 7-0  against the money line after allowing 7 runs or more 2 straight games dating back to last season.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (MILWAUKEE) - starting a pitcher who walked 1 or less hitters each of his last 2 outings, with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 2.000 the last 5 games are 40-6 L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Home teams (MILWAUKEE) - allowing 4 or less runs/game on the season (NL), after 2 straight losses by 4 runs or more are 34-7 L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win on the money line 

MICHAEL FIERS (R) vs. RYAN BORUCKI (L)

Fiers the Tigers starter has struggled on the road this season with a 5.15 ERA, nearly two full runs differential than his total at Comerica Park (3.19) and is fade material here in this spot. At the Rogers Centre   Fiers,  is 0-2 mark and 5.91 ERA in two career starts. Meanwhile, Borucki in his major league debut, allowed just 2 runs vs the explosive Houston Astros in 6 quality innings of work, and should be very well prepared for a far less cohesive offence in this spot. I know the Tigers won yesterday to end a 11 game losing streak, but I'm betting on them reverting back to usual selves this afternoon.

The Tigers have lost 18 straight as a 140+ dog after a game as a road dog in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base.The Tigers have lost 18 straight  as a 140+ dog after a game as a road dog in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent,The Tigers have lost 18 straight games as a road 140+ dog after a game as a road dog in which they had fewer than five team-left-on-base.The Blue Jays have won 6 straight if not playing the first game of a series as a 140+ favorite after they scored first.Tigers are 4-17 in their last 21 during game 4 of a series.

Tigers are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Blue Jays are 39-18 in their last 57 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Blue Jays are 7-2 in their last 9 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Blue Jays are 10-2 in their last 12 home games.Tigers are 3-12 in the last 15 meetings in Toronto.

Play on the Toronto Blue Jays to win on the money line 

The Dodgers have looked asleep at the proverbial wheel in the first two games of this series vs the Colorado Rockies losing both times as hefty favs. I natural reaction by bettors would no be that the Dodgers will be now primed for a bounce back effort as they look to avoid the embarrassing sweep at home. Unfortunately though its not always easy to just push the start button, and reboot when your crashing, and that is what my contrarian position is in this spot. 

Chad Bettis the Rockies starter has been his best on the road this season garnering a 5-1 record along with a solid 2.72 ERA in 9 starts and according to my power rankings matches up well vs the Dodgers.

Dodgers are 1-7 in Striplings last 8 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

BETTIS the Rockies starter today vs LA is 16-6 against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

COLORADO is 8-3 against the money line as an underdog of +150 or more this season.

The Dodgers have lost 10 straight at home when they lost the last two games their starter started, with at least one of those losses by 2+ runs. The Dodgers have also suffered 7 straight multiple run losses on the money line in the last game of a home series when the opponent is not on a 3+ losing streak and the opponent's starter has a 4.00 or worse ERA.

LA DODGERS have played crap ball against perceived less superior sides this season going 3-11 against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 5 or more runs/game on the season this season COLORADO is 12-4 against the money line in road games vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 or less errors/game this season.

Rockies are 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Los Angeles.

Play on the Colorado Rockies to win on the moneyline

Atlantas starter Foltynewicz despite of pitching well of late has faced St. Louis three times in his career, going 1-2 with a 9.95 ERA and yielding a whopping 22 hits over 12 2/3 innings which coincides with me fading him as my power rankings suggest the Cards matchup well against him. Meanwhile, John Gant (2-2, 3.48). Gant, replacing the disabled Michael Wacha in the rotation, pitched the best game of his career Monday night, limiting Cleveland to an infield single by Yan Gomes over seven innings in a 5-0 victory. Now with confidence on board, the former Atlanta prospect will be out to show the Braves what they missed out on. 

The Braves are 0-6 L/6 in not the first game of a series vs a team that has lost at least their last three games like the Cards have.The Braves are 8-20 L/28 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after a game as a road dog in which they won by 5+ runs.

ST LOUIS is 11-0 against the money line after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games this season. ATLANTA is 0-7 against the money line vs. an NL team with an slugging percentage .400 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. 

MLB Road teams (ATLANTA) - with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games, after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs are 30-70 L/5 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ATLANTA) - with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games, after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs are 18-46 L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the St.Louis Cardinals to win on the money line

CHRIS SALE (L) vs. SONNY GRAY (R)

The ace of the BoSox pitching staff goes against the  Yankees after striking out nine or more batters in each of his past four outings. He tallied eight strikeouts, allowed eight hits, walked none and surrendered one run over six innings against the Yankees on April 10 and matches up very well against the Yankees batting order. Note: Sale is getting stronger as the season has progressed ,his average fastball was 92.5 in April, 95.6 in May and 97.0 this month.

Meanwhile, the Yanks starter  Gray  is off a loss in his last start, when he surrendered four runs and six hits in 6 2/3 innings to the Rays at Tropicana Field. He faced Boston on April 12, permitting six runs over three innings in a loss and my own power rankings suggest he will struggle against the Red Sox batting order again. Since joining the Yankees, he is 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox. For his career, Gray is 1-5 with a 5.97 ERA in seven games against Boston.

GRAY is 6-16   against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) GRAY is 5-12 (-12.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

  BOSTON is 47-19   against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. The Red Sox are 18-1 L/19  as a 130-plus favorite off a game as a dog in which their bullpen allowed multiple runs.

Play on the Boston Red Sox to win on the moneyline

ADAM PLUTKO (R) vs. EDWIN JACKSON (R)

Plutko the Tribes starter today vs Oakland  limited Detroit to two runs on six hits over six innings on Sunday, ending with four strikeouts and no walks. The right-hander has held righty batters to a .186 average with a .620 OPS in six outings this season. I'm expecting he does just fine vs Oakland offense that has struggled offensively at home this season generating just 3.6 rpg via a lowly .223 BA. Meanwhile, the Athletics will respond  with Jackson who  gave the A’s six innings in his 2018 debut, holding the Tigers to one run on Monday. He allowed just six hits and didn’t walk a batter, while striking out seven in the 80-pitch outing. I expect he gets even stronger today, and continues his past top tier efforts vs the Tribe, as is evident by 9-1 W/L career record along with a solid 2.81 ERA. The Indians have been a Dr.Jekyll and Mr.Hyde offense home and away this season. On the road Cleveland has averaged just 3.8 rpg behind a lackluster .224 BA and I'm betting on Jackson and a stable As bullpen 2.66 ERA at home to keep the Tribe for erupting, thus helping see this game score finish on the low side of the Total.

JACKSON the As starter  is 11-1 UNDER  when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.9 rpg scored.

The Indians are 0-12-2 UNDER  as a road favorite when their opponents starter has an ERA of less than 2.5 on the season , going under by an average  2.2 rpg. Only one game saw more than 8 runs scored.

MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (CLEVELAND) - revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less, a good team (54% to 62%) playing a team with a winning record are 48-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

TYLER SKAGGS (L) vs. ANDREW CASHNER (R)

Skaggs the Angles starter this afternoon  took the loss in his last start on Monday despite holding the Royals to one run over seven innings. He has posted a 0.67 ERA over 27 innings in four June starts and I'm betting will make life difficult for the Os offense. Meanwhile, Baltimore's starter Cashner took a no-decision in his last start, against the Mariners, despite going six innings for the third time in four outings. The righty has a 3.68 ERA in June but is winless in four starts, thanks to a lack of clutch hitting and run support by the Os struggling batting order that has produced more than 3 runs only twice in their L/9 games.

LA ANGELS are 9-1 UNDER  after a win by 6 runs or more this season with the average combined score clicking at 6.4 rpg.BALTIMORE is 14-4 UNDER   in home games after a loss by 6 runs or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 8.1 rpg scored. BALTIMORE is 20-7 UNDER  as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season with a combined average of 7.2 rpg scored and  is 16-3 UNDER as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season with a combined average of 6.2 rpg  going on the board. CASHNER is 9-2 UNDER  as an underdog of +100 or higher this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average scoring ringing in at 6.5 rpg. CASHNER is 12-2 UNDER  at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.7 rpg scored. CASHNER is 15-4 UNDER (+10.8 Units) with a team slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season (AL) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

BALTIMORE is 17-3 UNDER   vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing 0.35 or less SB's/game in the second half of the season over the last few seasons with a combined average of 7.7 rpg scored.

Play UNDER

German Marquez the Rockies hurler has a below average won loss record of 5-8 and a  bloated 5.64 ERA, but a lot of that damage has come at Coors field. On the road Marquez is 3-3 along with a stable 3.29 ERA , and is under rated on the line in this spot thus giving us value backing him and his teammates in this spot. It must also be noted that the Dodgers are 0-6  against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.40 or worse this season

LA DODGERS are  also just 3-10   against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 5 or more runs/game on the season this season.

COLORADO is 6-0 against the money line revenging a 3 game sweep, beaten by 3+ runs in each game over the last 3 seasons. Which happened the last time these teams met in early June.

 LA DODGERS has also not been stable favorites as is evident by a  20-24 record  against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more this season.

The Rockies have won 8 straight  as a 150-plus underdog on the opening line  off a road game in which they led by multiple runs, which was the case last time out.

Play on the Colorado Rockies to win on the moneyline

JULIO TEHERAN (R) vs. MILES MIKOLAS (R)

The Braves starter today Teheran  vs the Cards is coming off his worst start of the season after giving up 7 runs, including a grand slam in the first, to the O's last Saturday. Since starting the season 4-1, Teheran is 1-4 in his last six outings along  with a  bloated 6.06 ERA and seven homers allowed in 32 2/3 innings. He will be backed by a  Braves bullpen, that has  garnered a 5.46 ERA with 14 walks in 29 2/3 innings on the recent homestand. 

   Meanwhile, Mikalos .the Cards starter has been one of major league baseballs pitching surprises this season, and is highly under rated and gives the Cards a strong chance foe victory tonight.  The righty thrower has walked just 12 hitters in 97 innings while ranking second in the National League in WHIP (0.97) and sixth in ERA. He should do well vs a mix match banged up Atlanta batting order that is slumping of late, as was evident when they lost 4 of 6 in their recent home stand.

TEHERAN is 18-35  against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

The Cardinals are 41-9 L/50 since Sep 15, 2015 as a 140+ favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games, which the Braves have.

MLB Teams are 19-4 since Jun 18, 2018 League as a home 140+ favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games.

MATHENY is 94-60 against the money line in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) as the manager of ST LOUIS.

Play on the St.Louis Cardinals to win on the moneyline

EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ (L) vs. C.C. SABATHIA (L)

Sabathia the Yankee starter tonight has lost his last two starts, both to the Rays, despite limiting them to five runs (four earned) with 14 strikeouts over 13 innings. I'm betting he keeps his team in this game as well and limits the Beantown offense to limited run producing opportunities. Meanwhile, Rodriguez the BoSox starter ,  despite of a rare substandard effort Mariners, when he allowed 5 runs in 4 innings, the southpaw has been solid, with a 2.97 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in the past seven games. Against the Yankees on May 10, he struck out eight over five scoreless innings.  Both hurlers are backed by quality bullpens, and I'm betting on these hurlers providing up with quality work, which will help contribute to us cashing a under ticket here.

Under is 9-0 in Sabathias last 9 home starts vs. Red Sox.Under is 5-1 in Rodriguezs last 6 road starts vs. Yankees.

Under is 13-3-1 in Yankees last 17 games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 8-0-1 in Yankees last 9 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 23-9-2 in Rodriguezs last 34 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

SABATHIA is 26-10 UNDER  against division opponents over the last few seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average score of 7.6 rpg scored.

NY YANKEES are 17-7 UNDER   vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season with a combined average score of 7.5 rpg scored.

RODRIGUEZ is 22-8 UNDER vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in his career. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.8 rpg scored. RODRIGUEZ is 11-1 UNDER  as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined 5.5 rpg scored.

BOONE is 22-4 UNDER  L/26 in June games as the manager of NY YANKEES with a combined average of 6.6 rpg scored. BOONE is 27-9 UNDER after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better as the manager of NY YANKEES with a combined average of 7.5 rpg scored.

The Red Sox are 3-17-2 OU L/22  by an average of 1.73 rpg in the first game of a series with no rest when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after they used 5+ pitchers. The Red Sox are 9-27 OU  since Jun 15, 2004 on the road off a game as a favorite vs a lefty when they won the last three times they faced a lefty with a combed average of 8.3 rpg scored.

 RODRIGUEZ is 12-2 UNDER  as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)  with a combined average of 7 rpg going on the board.

NY YANKEES are 20-8 UNDER vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season with a combined average score of 7.5 rpg scored.

MLB Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (NY YANKEES) - revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are a long term good bet for under bettors and are  138-64 to the UNDER L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate on the blind.

Play UNDER

JUNIOR GUERRA (R) vs. ANTHONY DESCLAFANI (R)

The Reds hurler is currently in good form and off a quality start but it must be noted that the Reds are just 1-6 in DeSclafanis last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Meanwhile the Brewer starter Guerra despite of substandard win loss record, has not allowed more than 3 runs in any of his L/8 starts, and almost always gives his side a chance for victory. 

GUERRA is 21-10  against the money line with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

CINCINNATI is 1-10  against the money line in home games revenging 4 or more straight losses vs opponent in last 2 years this season.Brewers are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

The Reds are 0-13 SU after a game as a road dog in which they scored first, trailed and won.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MILWAUKEE) - average offensive team (4.0 to 4.5 runs/game) against a decent starter (ERA 3.70 to 4.20)-NL, with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season are 40-13 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Milwaukee Brewer to win on the money line 

MIKE LEAKE (R) vs. JIMMY YACABONIS (R)

Mike Leake (8-4, 4.11 ERA) will start for the Mariners against Jimmy Yacabonis (0-0, 15.43). Leake has the advantage according to my pitcher vs offense power rankings system. LEAKE is 12-4 against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Seattle has won the first three games of this series, after yesterdays 8-7 victory in 11 innings over the slumping and injury-riddled Orioles and look like viable investment option  to sweep this series.SEATTLE is 31-18  against the money line after a one run win over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-1 against the money line after 6 or more consecutive road games this season.

 
The Mariners are 10-0  L/10 in the last game of a series after a game as a road favorite in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent .The Mariners are 12-0 L/12 and its  not the first game of a series as a road 140+ favorite after playing as a road favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games .The Mariners are 16-0 as a road favorite of more than 130 off a road game in which they allowed 1 or fewer walks.

The Orioles are 0-13 L/13  at home after playing as a home dog when playing a team that has a better record.

BALTIMORE is 4-18  against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season and is  2-14  against the money line in home games vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season. BALTIMORE is 2-15  against the money line as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season.BALTIMORE is 0-12  against the money line against AL West opponents this season. BALTIMORE is 6-22 (against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses this season.

Play on Seattle Mariners to win

KYLE HENDRICKS (R) vs. ALEX WOOD (L)

Wood has struggled from time to time through the first half, but he contained the Mets until a sixth-inning home run by Jose Bautista last time out. More importantly, Wood’s postgame comments finally turned positive and his confidence could be returning, which makes him a dangerous opponent for a very inconsistent Cubs offence.Wood has won each of his last two starts. Meanwhile, Hendricks and Cubbies pitching opponent, has given up three home runs in four June starts and 14 already this season and the Cubs have lost four of his last five starts. On Thursday at Cincinnati, he lasted just 5 2/3 innings and the Cubs lost the first of four consecutive games against the Reds. Needless to say he is fade material in his current form.HENDRICKS is 2-10 ( against the money line after a win this season. (Team's Record) 
I know the Dodgers got clobbered yesterday, but it must be noted that The Dodgers are 15-1 L/16 if its not the first game of a series after a game as a home favorite in which they lost by 5+ runs. Also MLB Teams are 12-0 l/12 dating back to June 19 this season as a opening line home 140+ favorite off a home game in which they did not hit a home runThe Dodgers are 7-0 L/7 as a favorite after they allowed 6+ runs this seasonThe Cubs are 0-8 L/8 in not the first game of a series as a dog off a game as a dog in which they struck out their opponent at least ten times.

Cubs are 3-12 in their last 15 road games vs. a left-handed starter.Cubs are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles.

MLB teams (CHICAGO CUBS) - average hitting team (AVG .255 to .269) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 to 4.20) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL)are 14-34 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the LA Dodgers to win on the money line

SHANE BIEBER (R) vs. JACK FLAHERTY (R)

In a win over the Tigers on Friday, Bieber struck out nine, walked one and logged seven shutout innings with four hits allowed. He became first Indians pitcher since 1964 to strike out at least six in each of his first three career starts and he gets my support tonight in St.Louis. Meanwhile, Jack Flaherty the Cards starter has also looked go , but according to my power rankings the Tribe matchup well against him.

The Cards took the first two games of this series, but the Time have proved resilient in this situations is evident by the trends below.

Indians are 9-3 in their last 12 games after losing the first 2 games of a series and are 23-8 in their last 31 during game 3 of a series.

ST LOUIS is 3-10 against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season over the last few seasons. 

The Indians are 7-0 L/7 on the money line when their line is within 20 cents of pickem off a game as a favorite vs a team that has won at least their last four games.The Cardinals have lost 6 straight on the moneyline  if its not the first game of a series when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after they had 12+ hits

Play on the Cleveland Indians to win on the money line

The White Sox will go to right-hander James Shields (2-9, 4.59 ERA) to make his 17th start of the season, but are at a disadvantage as the Twins return fire with the confident  Kyle Gibson who has limited opponents to two earned runs or fewer in each of his past five starts. Gibson owns a solid  6-2 record with a 2.42 ERA vs the Twins in his career.GIBSON is 11-3  against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) GIBSON is 13-4  against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) GIBSON is 25-9 ( against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season in his career.

 (Team's Record)GIBSON is 12-2  against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) 

The White Sox are 4-18 since Apr 27, 2013 in not the first game of a series as a dog off a home game when their opponents starter has a strike-per-ball ratio less than 1.6 on the season including their L/11 in a row under these perimeters. 

The White Sox are 0-6 L/6 this season and its not the first game of a series as a home dog after a game as a home dog in which they scored 6+ runs.The White Sox are 0-10 L/10 this season and its not the first game of a series as a dog after playing as a home dog when their opponents starter has a strike-per-ball ratio less than 1.6 on the season.

Play on the Minnesota Twins to win on the money line 

MARCO ESTRADA (R) vs. DALLAS KEUCHEL (L)

There is a key long term trend that applies to afternoons game between the Jays and the Astros.
The Blue Jays have lost 20 straight in the last game of a series as a road dog of more than 130 after they lost by three-plus runs , with the last 7 coming by 2 or more runs. ( Toronto lost yesterday by a 7-0 count) Note:Blue Jays are 0-4 in Estradas last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.

Keuchel the Astros starter took a no-decision against Kansas City in his last trip to the hill, when he scattered six hits over six scoreless innings. The hurler hasn't allowed an earned run in his last 12 innings of work in his last two turns. Keuchel is 3-0 with a 3.62 ERA in four career starts against the Blue Jays and gets the nod today over Estrada a thrower that has been in top form, but does not matchup well vs the Astros offence. TORONTO is 9-20 against the money line against left-handed starters this season with their offence generating 3.9 rpg on a lowly .227 BA. Meanwhile, the Astros have done their best offensive work vs right handers like Estrada averaging 5.4 rpg on a .266 BA.
Astros are 53-19 in their last 72 games vs. a right-handed starter.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (HOUSTON) - starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts are 50-8 L/21 seasons with the combined average win deficit coming by 2.2 rag, which qualifies this investment option on the run-ine.

Play on the Astros on the run-line -1.5

DANNY DUFFY (L) vs. BRENT SUTER (L)

Brent Suter (8-4, 4.15 ERA) will start for Milwaukee, looking for his fourth consecutive victory. The left-hander has been amazing during his winning streak, recording a 2.84 ERA while holding batters to a .185 average and a .551 OPS.  He is in great form and gets my support to help his team cover on the run-in this afternoon vs a  Royals that are 4-19 since June 1 and have lost 12 of their last 14 games -- six by four or more runs.  It must be noted that the Brewers are 7-0 on the money line in franchise history with Brent Suter as a home favorite when they scored three-plus runs and won in his last start with the victories coming by an average of 5.71 rpg.  

 KANSAS CITY is 7-31  SU vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season losing by an average of 2.3 rpg. 

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers on the run line -1.5 ( Late update)

JAMES PAXTON (L) vs. KEVIN GAUSMAN (R)

James Paxton (6-2, 3.72 ERA) of Seattle goes Tuesday against Baltimore's Kevin Gausman (3-6, 4.38).Gausman is on a four-game losing streak. The right-hander has not won in his last seven starts .He's been wildly inconsistent but even when he pitches well his team have not given him a lot of offensive support making him fade material against a offense that my power rankings suggest matchup well against him.


GAUSMAN is 4-18 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last few seasons. (Team's Record)

SEATTLE is 10-1 against the money line after 6 or more consecutive road games this season.SEATTLE is 22-8 against the money line after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs this season and is 22-8 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season.

The Mariners have won 25 straight on the moneyline as a road favorite of more than 130 when their opponents starter has an ERA of higher than 3.00 on the campaign, it is not a series opener, and they did not use more than five pitchers in their previous game.

BALTIMORE is 0-10 against the money line against AL West opponents this season. BALTIMORE is 1-12 against the money line after batting .200 or worse over a 3 game span this season. Baltimore has lost 14 of their L/16 at home as a underdog. Seattle has been a good long term bet as road favorite going 128-69 for a 65% conversion rate for a 15.09% ROI.

MLB team (SEATTLE) - after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs against opponent with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 2.000 the last 5 games are 117-62 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Seattle Mariners to win on the moneyline

MIKE CLEVINGER (R) vs. JOHN GANT (R)

Cleveland and their bats have come to life of late, scoring 50 runs in their L/6 games and could put enough runs on the board vs the Cards starters in bullpen today to eclipse this weak total all by themselves.Over is 3-0-1 in Indians last 4 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.

Over is 8-1 in Cardinals last 9 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.

CLEVELAND is 17-4 OVER  after 4 or more consecutive home games this season.( The Tribe just played 9 straight as hosts)

The Cardinals have gone 7 straight times  in the first game of a series with no rest as a underdog after a game as a road pup  in which they used 5+ pitchers going over the total by an average of 8 runs per game.

Play on the OVER 

JOEY LUCCHESI (L) vs. COLE HAMELS (L)

Hamels is 3-3 with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in his past 10 starts. Opponents are hitting .206 off him in that stretch. He is 9-2 with a 2.25 ERA in 17 career starts against the Padres.Hamels has gone six-plus innings in his past eight starts, his second-longest streak with the Rangers, and has allowed just one earned run in 13 innings in his last two starts. Note: HAMELS is 19-4  against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

SAN DIEGO is 2-16  against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start dating back to last season.

MLB team (SAN DIEGO) - after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less against opponent after getting shut out are 30-62 L/21 seasons for a 68% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

MLB TEXAS) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less ) against a decent NL starting pitcher (ERA=3.70 to 4.20), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start are 36-17 for a 68% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Texas Rangers to win on the moneyline

FELIX HERNANDEZ (R) vs. ANDREW CASHNER (R)

Andrew Cashner (2-8, 4.72 ERA) starts for the Orioles Monday against Felix Hernandez (6-6, 5.14

Despite a career-high ERA of 5.14, the veteran right-hander has pitched better of late, allowing two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts. He’s 4-1 with a 3.09 ERA in seven career starts at Camden Yards. He gives his team an edge, vs a hurler in Cashner that has been both inconsistent and the unlucky recipient of a lack of run support making him and struggling team fade material in this spot.

HERNANDEZ team when he starts  is 14-3 against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record .SEATTLE is 37-21 against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season.SEATTLE is 9-1   against the money line after 6 or more consecutive road games this season.

BALTIMORE is 9-30  against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.BALTIMORE is 6-23   against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season this season. BALTIMORE is 9-23   against the money line after a 5 game span with an OBP of .285 or worse this season.

Play on Seattle Mariners to win on the moneyline

 JONATHAN LOAISIGA (R) vs. VINCENT VELASQUEZ (R)

New York was unceremoniously  swept in a three-game weekend series on the road by the Tampa Bay Rays. It's the first time in 2018 the Yankees have lost three consecutive games -- something the team had not done since Aug. 28-30, 2017 and will now very primed to bounce back vs a Philadelphia team that blew a 3 run lead yesterday late in the game to lose by a 8-6 count and will now be in an emotional letdown situation and vulnerable .

Yankees starter Loaisiga (1-0, 3.12 ERA) will make just the third start of his major league career.
The 23-year-old from Nicaragua was sharp in his debut, throwing five scoreless innings against the Rays on June 15, but struggled in his second game, even though still exhibited some electric stuff. Now I expect the third time to be a charm, as the kid becomes more level headed in his mlb ambitions.

Note: Phillies starter VELASQUEZ is 0-9  against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season dating back to last season.

NY YANKEES are 24-9  against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.NY YANKEES are 14-3  against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season

MLB Home teams (PHILADELPHIA) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 to 1.350 on the season-NL, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs are a LONG term negative bet as they are 62-105 L/21 seasons for a 62% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the NY Yankees to win on the moneyline

NICK PIVETTA (R) vs. JEFRY RODRIGUEZ (R)

The Nationals will send the inexperienced  Jerry Rodriguez  to the hill to make his second career Major League start.  The kid like so many young pitchers that get the call-up to the majors have some good stuff, but putting it to proper use is a constant issue as was the case was for Rodrigues  ,  as is evident by  allowing  five runs on four hits in five innings in his first start. I'm betting he will once again get schooled by a Phillies team that  are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Meanwhile, Monday against the Cardinals, Pivetta  looked rejuvenated after a couple down efforts and generated 11 of 21 strikeouts with his nasty curveball and struck out a career-high 13 in 7 1/3 innings. When the curve is working well he is hard to beat and gets my backing here tonight. Nationals are 2-7 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.

The Phillies have won the first two games of this series by a 17-5 count and are more than capable of completing the sweep with a win tonight in DC vs a struggling Nats team that has lost 7 of their L/9. Note: Philadelphia is 4-0 L/4 in games 3 of a series.

PHILADELPHIA is 23-9 against the money line after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.WASHINGTON is 9-15  against the money line after having lost 2 of their last 3 games this season. 

MLB team (WASHINGTON) - average offensive team (4.0 to 4.5 runs/game) against a decent starter (ERA 3.70 to 4.20)-NL, after 10 straight games where they failed to hit more than one HR are 57-102 L/21 seasons for a go against 63% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on the Philadelphia Phillies to win on the money line 

CALEB SMITH (L) vs. GERMAN MARQUEZ (R)

German Marquez (5-7, 5.20) will start for the Rockies.  He been consistently hit hard this season and is 0-2 with along with the bloated 5.23 ERA in two starts against the Marlins, including April 28 when he gave up three runs (one earned) in six innings in Colorado's 4-1 loss.The Rockies are 7-8 in starts by Marquez, who is 2-4 with a 7.45 ERA in eight starts at Coors Field this season and is fade material in his current lower tier form. Meanwhile, the Marlins are   5-1 in their starters Smiths last 6 starts.

Rockies are 1-6 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.Rockies are 3-7 in Marquezs last 10 home starts.

COLORADO is 7-15 L/22 against the money line in home games vs. terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.MIAMI is 6-2 against the money line after 7 or more consecutive road games this season.COLORADO is 9-20  against the money line in home games after 5 or more consecutive home games over the last couple of seasons.COLORADO is 4-15 against the money line after batting .333 or better over a 5 game span over the last couple of seasons.

 Marlins are 16-7 in the last 23 meetings.

Play on the Miami Marlins to win on the money line 

LUKE WEAVER (R) vs. JHOULYS CHACIN (R)

The Cardinals beat the Brewers yesterday, but the 
Cardinals are just 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win. Today the Cardinals who have lost 8 of their L/11 overall will have their work out for them vs a hurler Chacin who has been very effective at home this season where he's posted a 2.31 ERA in six starts at Miller Park.Overall, the righty has made a team-leading 16 starts this season and is 6-2 with a 3.18 ERA. He is holding opponents to a .231 BA average and a 1.24 WHIP while striking out 66 in 87 2/3 innings and must be respected here in his abilities to make his team very competitive in this spot.  
CHACIN is 8-1 against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season. (Team's Record).CHACIN is also 10-3 against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Meanwhile, WEAVER the Cards starter is 1-8 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) .


MLB Road teams (ST LOUIS) - ice cold hitting team - batting .165 or worse over their last 3 games, in June games are 18-48 L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

MLBRoad teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ST LOUIS) - after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games against opponent after a one run loss are 24-60 L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. 

Brewers are 21-9 in their last 30 home games.
Play on Milwaukee to win on the money line 

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to in on the money line

MATT BOYD (L) vs. ADAM PLUTKO (R)

The pitching matchup Sunday will be Detroit left-hander Matthew Boyd (4-5, 3.63 ERA) vs. Cleveland right-hander Adam Plutko (3-1, 5.04). Boyd will make his second start against the Indians this year. His first one was a good one. On April 10, the Tigers lost to Cleveland 2-1. Boyd worked seven innings, giving up one run and three hits . Meanwhile, Plutko's last start was a 5-1 loss to the White Sox on June 12 in which he pitched 4 2/3 innings, giving up five runs and eight hits with five strikeouts and three walks and is fade material in his current form according to my power rankings. 

I know the Tigers have not been playing well recently vs the Tribe, but today Im betting they have an edge , and give us very good value on the money line.
Tigers are 4-0 in Boyds last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

CLEVELAND is 10-14 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season.DETROIT is 17-11 against the money line after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.Tigers are 6-2 in their last 8 during game 3 of a series.

MLB Favourites with a money line of -110 or higher (CLEVELAND) - poor hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL and were 38-67 L/5 seasons for a 63% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Detroit to win on the money line

IAN KENNEDY (R) vs. LANCE MCCULLERS JR. (R)

The lines-makers know well the odds of the Royals winning this game and have the same trends and data that I have on this tilt which I include here below.

The Astros are 32-0 SU as a 200+ favorite after they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent and it is not a series opener.Since the start of 2017 campaign, the Astros have won 14 in a row with Lance McCullers as a 125-plus favorite when he went six-plus innings in his last start.As pertains to the run-in it must be noted that Houston has won 7 straight on the money line in this spot this season with every win by multiple runs. 

Houston Right-hander Lance McCullers (8-3, 3.77 ERA) gets the nod in the middle game of the series for Houston. He is 1-0 with a 2.33 ERA over four career starts against the Royals. Meanwhile,the Royals will answer back right-hander Ian Kennedy (1-7, 5.31 ERA) on Saturday. Kennedy is winless over his last 13 starts, one behind Athletics right-hander Chris Bassitt for the longest active streak in the majors. He is 0-7 with a 6.12 ERA since his only win on April and is fade material inches current form.KENNEDY is 1-10  against the money line in night games this season. (Team's Record) losing SU by an average of 4 rpg. 

Play on the Houston Astros on the run-line -1.5

CLAYTON KERSHAW (L) vs. JACOB DEGROM (R)

Two star pitchers go to the hill today, but I'm betting the Dodgers behind Kershaw have the edge, because of the more consistent offence, and better clutch hitting I know DeGrom the Mets hurler has been lights out this season, but the Mets have lost  8 of his L/11 starts despite of him garnering a minsucle 0.90 ERA. 

DeGrom is also 0-3 with a 3.26 ERA in six career regular-season starts against the Dodgers. He has beaten every other team he has faced more than once.

Kershaw is 8-0 with a 1.84 ERA in 12 regular-season starts against the Mets and I'm betting he remains perfect after today.

NY METS are 9-22 ( against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.

MLBHome teams (NY METS) - with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (NL), with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 5 games are 14-40 L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA dodgers to win on the money line 

Cubs RH Luke Farrell (2-2, 3.63 ERA) vs. Reds RH Anthony DeSclafani (2-1, 4.60)

The Cubs have lost the first two games of this series, and will primed to bounce back here with a big effort this afternoon.

Luke Farrell will make his first start of 2018 for the Cubs. The right-hander, who was named the starter following Friday's game, has made 12 relief appearances this year, allowing allowing seven earned runs over 17 1/3 innings for a 3.63 ERA and according to my power rankings matches up very well vs the Reds.Reds are 8-21 in their last 29 vs. National League Central.

The Reds hurler , Anthony DeSclafani , according to my own rankings does not matchup well vs the Cubbies. It must be noted that the  Cubs are 43-19 in their last 62 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

Reds are 11-23 in their last 34 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win 

Nola the Phillies ace looks like a lock to make the NL All-Star team,  and is in rebound mode after a rare forgettable start. He allowed four runs in 4 1/3 innings Sunday against the Brewers, just the second time this season he has allowed more than three runs. Phillies are 9-2 in Nolas last 11 starts.Nationals are 2-6 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Meanwhile, the Nationals starter Fedde has given up 10 runs on 19 hits in three starts this season.Phillies are 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.Nationals are 0-4 in Feddes last 4 home starts.

Nola is a special pitcher and gives his team a chance at victory every time he goes to the hill. Considering the pitching matchup and the Nationals recent struggles , as is evident by losing 6 of their L/8 the Phillies have an edge. 

Washington has lost 12 of 18 home games vs teams whose hitters strike out more than 7 times a game this season.

Play on the Philadelphia Phillies 

 Rangers RH Yovani Gallardo (0-0, 15.95 ERA) vs. Twins RH Jake Odorizzi (3-4, 4.38)

Gallardo will make his second start since being recalled from Triple-A. He allowed five runs on six hits while striking out four in a no-decision vs. the Rockies on Sunday. He is a very hittable pitcher in this current form, and my own power projections estimate that the Twins matchup well against him. Meanwhile, Odorizzi struggled through five innings and surrendered four runs his last time out vs. Cleveland on Sunday, and has struggled mightily vs. the Indians this year, but interestingly has held all other opponents to three earned runs or fewer in 11 out of 12 starts. Odorizzi has pitched extremely well in six career starts against Texas, going 4-0 with a 2.02 ERA and get my support here again today.

The Rangers won yesterday and are running hot but I'm betting they get cooled off here this afternoon.

Twins are 4-1 in Odorizzis last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.Rangers are 5-11 in their last 16 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Play on the Minnesota Twins to win on the moneyline

CLAYTON RICHARD (L) vs. CHRIS STRATTON (R)

Padres left-hander Clayton Richard (6-6, 4.31),  enters this game in top form and has allowed just six earned runs in his  L/ 20 innings of top tier work. Meanwhile, Stratton the Giants starter  threw seven shutout innings, allowing just one hit, in a 7-0 victory over the Padres in April and in his career owns a solid 2-1 record along  with a stable 3.21 ERA against them in three games, including two starts. Under is 4-1 in Strattons last 5 starts overall.

Both pitchers are backed by solid bullpens with SF relievers garnering a 2.87 home ERA and the Padres relievers recording a 2.79 overall ERA.

The Giants have struggled against LHP this season like Richards averaging 4 rpg, via a lowly below the Mendoza line .241 team BA. The Fathers, 3.4 rpg on he road, while hitting just .225.

SAN DIEGO is 20-9 UNDER   on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season with the combined average score clicking in at 6.6 rpg. Under is 8-2 in Padres last 10 overall.Under is 6-1 in Padres last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

Everything points to this being a low scoring sleeper that fails to eclipse this total.

Play UNDER

MICHAEL FIERS (R) vs. SHANE BIEBER (R)

In two starts against the Indians this year, Fiers is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA, having allowed two runs and eight hits in 13 innings with 13 strikeouts and two walks. In six career starts against Cleveland, Fiers is 3-1 with a 2.04 ERA and must not be underestimated in his ability to help his team pull off a nice upset here tonight in Cleveland against the Tribe. FIERS team when he starts  is 5-0  against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game this season. FIERS team when he starts is also 6-1 against the money line against division opponents this season.  Tigers are 5-0 in Fiers' last 5 starts.

MLB team (CLEVELAND) - team with a poor OBP (.320 or less) against a good starting pitcher (WHIP of 1.300 to 1.350) -AL, with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 5 games are 10-30 L/21 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Detroit Tigers to win on the moneyline

JOSE QUINTANA (L) vs. LUIS CASTILLO (R)

The Cubs lost last night to Cincinnati blowing a 2-0 lead going into the 6th, eventually running out of gas and losing 6-2. However, the Cubs have proven resilient in the past off a loss vs an opponent, and are also   25-7 against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite dating back last season.

Quintana (6-5) was nearly flawless his last time out against the Reds, limiting them to a Scott Schebler single over seven innings while striking out seven and walking four during a 10-0 victory in the second game of a May 19 doubleheader and is my choice to get us the promised land here again tonight. Quintana has pitched extremely well vs  Reds, going 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA while striking out 16 in 16 2-3 innings over three career starts.Note:The Cubs are 6-0 on the moneyline  when Jose Quintana starts as a favorite when they lost in his last start. Chicago has won these six games by an average of 8.33 rpg.
CINCINNATI is 18-40 against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

Cubs are 4-0 in Quintanas last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.Reds are 0-4 in Castillos last 4 starts.

CINCINNATI is 14-31 against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start and is 5-17  against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better this season and is 17-42  against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

Cubs are 20-9 in the last 29 meetings in Cincinnati.

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the moneyline

WADE LEBLANC (L) vs. STEVEN WRIGHT (R)

The Red Sox will play their first home game after an extended road trip and will now be in a bit of jet lagged let down state that puts them at a disadvantage vs a quality opponent. note: Red Sox are 0-4 in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.

 Mariners starter tonight left-hander Wade LeBlanc pitched  a top tier game  when he out dueled Steven Wright and handing the Boston Red Sox a 1-0 defeat last time they faced each other last week. LeBlanc, who has been pitching well of late , is 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA and has allowed only 11 earned runs in nine starts. LeBlanc is 1-0 with a 3.24 ERA in three career starts against Boston and gets my support in this tilt vs the Red Sox.

LEBLANC is 13-3  against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) BOSTON is 10-18 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better this season.
Mariners are 5-0 in LeBlancs last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearances and are 5-0 in LeBlancs last 5 starts during game 1 of a series. Overall the Mariners have won 14 of LeBlancs L/17 starts.

Red Sox are 0-5 in Wrights last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

SEATTLE is 11-1 against the money line after a loss by 2 runs or less this season.SEATTLE is 10-4  against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season.SEATTLE is 21-7  against the money line after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs this season.

Play on Seattle to win on the moneyline

PAT CORBIN (L) vs. IVAN NOVA (R)

The Pirates have shown a lot of inconsistencies this season, and are 10-21 in their L/31 games, 8 of their L/11 vs a winning team like todays visitor Arizona. The Pirates are also just 2-8 in their last 10 vs. National League West and 1-5 in their starters Nova L/6 starts vs NLW sides. Meanwhile, the Dbacks are 5-1 in their L/6 road games, and have won 9 of their L/13 overall, and qualify to get us the cash on the moneyline tonight.

Diamondbacks are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Pirates are 1-5 in Novas last 6 starts vs. National League West.
Pirates are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.

NOVA teams when he starts in his career is 7-17 against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season .

ARIZONA is 9-3 against the money line in road games vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse this season.ARIZONA is 30-19 against the money line in night games this season.

Play on the Arizona DBacks to win on the moneyline

KYLE HENDRICKS (R) vs. MATT HARVEY (R)

The Cubs just took 2 of 3 from the LA Dodgers and enter this game with momentum and confidence as they send starter Hendricks  to the ill. The righty hurler  is 4-1 with a 3.57 ERA in 11 career starts against the Reds.Cubs are 6-1 in Hendricks' last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.

Meanwhile, the Reds will send still-inconsistent right-hander Matt Harvey (1-5, 5.92 ERA) to hill. He is 0-3 in his L/4 starts, and is fade material in his current form. HARVEYs team when he starts in his career is 16-32 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record .

Cubs are 11-4 in their last 15 road games. Cubs are 43-17 in their last 60 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Cubs are 20-8 in the last 28 meetings in Cincinnati. Cubs are 46-19 in the last 65 meetings.     

CINCINNATI is 4-17   against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better this season and is 4-17   against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs/game on the season this season.Cincinnati is 8-23 L/30 against NL Central sides.Reds are 9-20 in their last 29 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

MLB favorites with a money line of -150 or more (CHICAGO CUBS) - allowing 4 or less runs/game on the season (NL), after scoring and allowing 5 runs or less last 4 games are 85-22 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the moneyline

STEVEN MATZ (L) vs. KYLE FREELAND (L)

Freeland Colorado's starter today is a pitcher that enjoys pitching at the launching pad known as Coors Field, as is evident by allowing just 10 ERS in 30 plus innings of work while garnering a solid 2.94 ERA. Freeland is also in good form as he is  coming off a seven-inning performance against the Rangers on Saturday, when he allowed two runs on eight hits in a no-decision. Meanwhile, Steven Matz the Mets starter is also in good form, but has not enjoyed much success vs the Rockies in his career posting a ugly 0-3 record in 4 starts along with a 6.50 ERA , all 4 outings also resulted in Met losses. Note: Steve Matz team  is 0-5 in his L/game 4 appearances.

FREELAND team  is 7-0 when he starts against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game this season.

NY METS are 4-13   against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

Play on the Colorado Rockies.

AUSTIN BIBENS-DIRKX (R) vs. JAKE JUNIS (R)

There are two very average pitchers on the hill today, but two below average offenses will face them. Texas has averaged 3.9 rpg on the road via a lowly .229 BA while KC has averaged 3.4 rpg on a .234 BA.   The Royals have scored more than 3 runs just once in their L/11 games, and struggle with their bats at the best of times and even against the worst of pitchers. My projections once again suggest that topping 3 runs for the this futile KC offense will be hard to achieve, while, Texas will not be far behind or ahead  in production , which makes for a viable under wager in this spot.

KANSAS CITY is 17-6 UNDER  vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season with a combined average of 8.4 rpg scored. KANSAS CITY is 18-9 UNDER  at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.

Under is 5-0 in Rangers last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 vs. American League Central. Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Under is 7-1 in Rangers last 8 road games. Under is 5-1-1 in Rangers last 7 games following a win.

Under is 4-0 in Royals last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 7-0 in Royals last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

Under is 6-2 in umpire Fairchilds last 8 games behind home plate.

MLB Home teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (KANSAS CITY) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL), excellent defensive catchers - allowing 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season are 72-36 UNDER  L/21 seasons for 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER

FELIX HERNANDEZ (R) vs. JONATHAN LOAISIGA (R)

The Mariners are off a loss to the Yanks yesterday, but are a solid bounce back proposition, as they are 7-0 L/7 off a road loss on the road.

Seattle starter Hernandez looked like he had gone back to a time when he dominated AL batters as he is coming off seven innings of two-run ball against Boston and has a history of pitching well vs. the Yankees -- 10-7, 3.04 ERA in 21 starts and 6-1, 1.41 in nine tilts at new Yankee Stadium.Since Aug. 4, 2012, he is 3-0 with a 1.36 ERA in five starts at Yankee Stadium.


SEATTLE is 32-16 against the money line against right-handed starters this season . I'm betting they matchup well vs the inexperienced Yankee hurler Loaisiga who earned another start after throwing five scoreless innings against the Rays in his Major League debut on Friday. ( The Rays are not exactly a offensive juggernaut so Ill take that with a grain of salt) Mariners are 10-3 in their last 13 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

Play on the Seattle Mariners to win on the moneyline

JASON VARGAS (L) vs. GERMAN MARQUEZ (R)

Laying a little lumber here tonight, but feel we have a big enough edge to make it a viable wagering opportunity.

Jason Vargas the NY Mets starter  has pitched decently of late but on the season has garnered a ugly 9.14 ERA on the road this  and according to my projections another non quality start here in the launching pad known as Coors Field will find him in a front of a proverbial firing squad here again today. .Vargas, who is 2-2 with an inflated 9.00 ERA in five career starts versus Colorado, including 1-2 with an super bloated 11.40 ERA in three outings at Coors Field.

Mets are 2-7 in Vargas' last 9 starts.Mets are 1-5 in Vargas' last 6 road starts.

Meanwhile, Colorado's starter Marquez may not also inspire bettors,   but the  Rockies are 6-1 in Marquezs last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Vargas owns a  1-0 record along with a 3.75 ERA in two career starts against the Mets, including six quality innings in a victory at Citi Field on May 4. My power rankings suggest he matches up well against this light hitting Mets offense.

MLB team (NY METS) - poor NL offensive team (3.8 or less runs/game) against a team with a below avg. bullpen (ERA 4.50 or worse), with a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) are 34-62 L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 65% for bettors.

MLB favorites with a money line of -150 or more (COLORADO) - with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season-NL are 41-12 L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Colorado to win on the moneyline

FREDDY PERALTA (R) vs. JAMESON TAILLON (R)

Milwaukee will recall right-hander Freddy Peralta (1-0, 3.72 ERA) from Triple-A Colorado Springs and give him his third career start Tuesday, against Pittsburgh righty Jameson Taillon (4-5, 3.94 ERA). In his earlier recall, Peralta,  , made his major league debut on Mother's Day, recording 5 2/3 scoreless innings against Colorado, while allowing just one hit and setting a Brewers record for a debut with 13 strikeouts. The kid looks good and should have the confidence for a good start here .Meanwhile, Taillon the Pirates starter pitched on Wednesday when he allowed two runs on six hits in seven innings of a 5-4 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks. I'm expecting both hurlers to do their part in what I'm betting will be another low scoring game in this series. Yesterday the Pirates took a 1-0 victory.  Note: MILWAUKEE is 12-2 UNDER   off a loss to a division rival as a favorite dating back to last season with the combined average score clicking in at 6.9 rpg.MILWAUKEE is 21-8 UNDER   after a loss this season with a combined average of 7.1 rpg scored.   These teams have stayed under in 13 of their L/19 games here in Pittsburgh.

MILWAUKEE is 11-3 UNDER    in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season with a combined average of 6.8 rpg scored. MILWAUKEE is 16-4 UNDER   in road games vs. terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.1 rpg scored.

Taillon has stayed under in his L/4 meetings vs the Brewers and his L/4 here at home.

Under is 6-0 in Brewers last 6 Tuesday games.Under is 7-1 in Brewers last 8 during game 2 of a series.Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 46-15-1 in Brewers last 62 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 6-2 in Brewers last 8 road games.Under is 53-18-1 in Brewers last 72 games following a loss/. Under is 30-12 in Brewers last 42 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 79-34-4 in Brewers last 117 games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 35-16-1 in Brewers last 52 vs. National League Central.Under is 36-17-1 in Brewers last 54 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Under is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 6-2-1 in Pirates last 9 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 5-2 in Pirates last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 5-2-2 in Pirates last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 7-3 in Pirates last 10 during game 2 of a series. Under is 7-3 in Pirates last 10 vs. a team with a winning recordUnder is 33-15-3 in Pirates last 51 vs. National League Central. Under is 5-0 in Taillons last 5 starts during game 2 of a series. Under is 7-1 in Taillons last 8 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Under is 6-1 in Taillons last 7 starts vs. National League Central.

Play UNDER

KENTA MAEDA (R) vs. TYLER CHATWOOD (R)

The Dodgers enter this game starting to heat up, having won 7 of their L/9 games and have 21 of their L/28  overall. The Dodgers have done some of their best offensive work on the road this season, averaging 5.7 rpg, and have won 10 straight as visitors vs above .500 teams like the Cubs. The Dodgers did lose yesterday at home, but have been resilient in a bounce back situation this season, going   7-0 in their last 7 games following a loss.

Tonight I'm betting Kenta Maeda a Japanese hurler who , has registered 69 strikeouts in 57 1/3 innings this year while limiting right-handed hitters to a .196 average will have the edge vs a Cubs batting order that has shown a lot of inconsistencies this season. Meanwhile, the Cubs starter Chatwood, is winless in his last six trips to the hill, and has  recorded a bloated 5.19 ERA over the last two months of sub par work, and is fade material in this spot according to my own power rankings.

LA DODGERS are 84-28   against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games dating back to last season.

CHATWOOD when he starts has seen his team  go 1-10 L/11  against the money line in home games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season. CHATWOOD is 6-14   against the money line in home games in night games over the last few seasons.

Dodgers are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA DODGERS) - poor hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=3.70 to 4.20) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start are 48-22 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Dodgers to win on the moneyline

BARTOLO COLON (R) vs. IAN KENNEDY (R)

I know that old timer Bartolo Colon the Rangers starting pitcher may not inspire bettors, but the veteran is resilient, as is evident by him being the most profitable starter in the league this season when his team lost his last start, cashing 5 straight times on the moneyline.The Rangers are also 6-0  L/6on the moneyline  off a walk-off win as a dog, which happened yesterday. COLON in his career when he starts  is 56-31 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game . Meanwhile, his Royals pitching opponent KENNEDYs team when he starts  is 3-14 against the money line in home games in night games  dating back to last season. Kennedy  is also winless in his last 12 starts overall, and never seems t catch a break no matter what, because of lack of run support and crap clutch hitting. Both these teams are less than impressive but the Rangers enter this game with some momentum after wiining 2 straight in Colorado, and look to be the better of two teams with sub par records.

KANSAS CITY is 6-24   against the money line vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season.KANSAS CITY is 4-15  against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 this season

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - poor AL hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA 5.00 or worse), starting a pitcher who was rocked for 7 or more runs last outing are 39-12 L/21 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Texas Rangers to win on the moneyline

 DYLAN COVEY (R) vs. TREVOR BAUER (R)

The Tribe has lost 4 of their L/6 overall and have looked a little wobbly of late. In last weeks series vs the White Sox they lost 2 of 4 games, and had lost five straight to the Minnesota Twins - including the first two in their weekend set - before picking up ad desperation  4-1 win in the finale Sunday afternoon.  The Indians have scored a total of just 18 runs in their L/6 games ( 3rpg) and could find themselves struggling to move runners again vs the Pale Hose starter Covey who is 3-0 with a 1.84 ERA since being recalled from the minors May 19. He was on the hill when the White Sox beat the  Indians in south side Chicago last week by a 3-2 score.

Meanwhile, Indians hurler BAUER in his career starts has seen his team go  just 13-19   against the money line in home games against division opponents. Indians are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.White Sox are 4-1 in Coveys last 5 starts.

CLEVELAND have lost 14 of their L/21  against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season.

Play on the Chicago White Sox to win on the +1.5 runline

JHOULYS CHACIN (R) vs. TREVOR WILLIAMS (R)

Brewers starter Chacin Three  of his  last five outings  have seen him not allow a run, including a six-inning effort in a win over the Chicago Cubs on Wednesday. He has won his last six decisions  with opposition batters  hitting just  .227 overall against him. Chacin limited the Pirates to one run in six innings in  his only meeting against them this season and matches up very well vs the Bucks.  CHACIN team when he starts is 8-0   against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season. The Pirates have also  lost 14 straight on the moneyline in the first game of a series with no rest when their line is within 20 cents of pickem off a home game and they are seeking same-season revenge vs their opponent's starting pitcher. Meanwhile, Williams the Pirates starter has  lasted just three innings in each of his last two starts, giving up a total 12 runs .Williams has not had a quality start in 5 straight and has garnered a  0-2 record along with an ugly  8.57 ERA during that nasty run. Needless to say, unless he suddenly comes to life, that Pirates chances look bleak here vs a winning team and pitcher.

CHACIN is 9-2  against the money line in night games this season.Brewers are 10-1 in Chacins last 11 starts.Brewers are 5-0 in Chacins last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record

Pirates are 1-5 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.Pirates are 9-19 in their last 28 overall.

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win on the moneyline

SONNY GRAY (R) vs. ERICK FEDDE (R)
This is the 2nd game of the night between these two teams. ( The first will be a resumption of a suspened tilt)

ZACK WHEELER (R) vs. CLAY BUCHHOLZ (R)

Buchholz faced the Mets in his first start for Arizona, giving up one run on two hits in five innings in a 4-1 Mets victory at Citi Field on May 20. He is good form this season, as is evident by garnering 2.25 ERA in 5 starts. According to my power rankings he matches up well vs the Mets light hitting and inconsistent offensive lineup that has scored a total of 20 runs in their L/11 games.  Meanwhile, the Mets Wheeler is 2-1 with a 2.13 ERA in four career games against Arizona, giving up 25 hits but only six earned runs while striking out 20 and walking five in 25 1/3 innings. Thanks to the Mets inability to score consistently and Wheelers ability to limit damage, I'm betting this tilt stays on the low side of the total.

NY METS  in their L/19 games after a 5 game span with an OBP of .285 or worse this season have seen a combined average of 6.7 rpg scored.

Under is 4-1 in Mets last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600

Under is 4-0-2 in umpire Reynolds' last 6 games behind home plate.Under is 4-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 during game 4 of a series.

MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (ARIZONA) - revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less, good team, winning 54-62% or more of their games on the season are 71-30 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play UNDER

EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ (L) vs. MIKE LEAKE (R)

Rodriguez the Bosox starter has won five in a row, the most recent being a 6-4 victory over the Orioles on Tuesday. He went 5 2/3 innings and allowed two runs and gets my support here today in the finale of this 4 game series vs the Seattle Mariners . Note: RODRIGUEZ team when he starts   is 12-1   against the money line in all games this season  Meanwhile, Mike Leake has  also done well of late  with his team winning his  last seven starts . However, according to my power rankings he does not matchup well vs the Red Sox batting order  .In his career vs Boston he  (0-2, 6.56 ERA in four career meetings). Key Trend: LEAKE team when he starts is  1-12   against the money line in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  62% or better in his career) 

Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 4 of a series.Red Sox are 6-0 in Rodriguezs last 6 road starts.

BOSTON is 40-15 against the money line against right-handed starters this season.

BOSTON is 13-3   against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 this season.

Play on the Boston Red sox to win on the moneyline

LANCE MCCULLERS JR. (R) vs. BRAD KELLER (R)

Houston is merciless and the Royals are just plain bad.

McCullers the Astros starter set a career high in wins (eight) by beating the A’s on Tuesday night in Oakland. He has thrown at least six innings in nine of his 14 starts. Of the 35 earned runs he has allowed, 15 have come in two rough starts and  now he gets the nod today. Meanwhile, this is not a good spot vs Brad Keller who is making just his 4th career start. Houston is a mean offensive machine, averaging 6 rpg on the road and could easily beat up on this kid today.

HOUSTON is 21-4 SU  in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season with the average combined margin of victory clicking in at 4.1 rpg. KANSAS CITY is 6-30   against the money line as an underdog of +175 to +250 over the last few seasons with the average margin defeat coming by 3.4 rpg.

The Royals  have lost 15 straight 140+ dog off a home game in which they struck out at least ten times which happened yesterday in a 10-2 loss to the Astros. Actually the L/5 times when this trend is in play the Royals were smashed and lost  by an average of 7.5 rpg.

Play on the Houston Astros to win on the runline -1.5

MADISON BUMGARNER (L) vs. ALEX WOOD (L)

Alex Wood the Dodgers starter tonight, is a mess right now,   and has allowed a total of 13 earned runs in his last three starts covering just 12 innings. He  is 2-3 with a 4.53 ERA in 11 career games (seven starts) versus the Giants and is fade material in his current sub par form. Meanwhile, the Giants starter Bumgarner after missing the first  part of this season    struggled in his second start last Monday against Miami Marlins , giving up four runs in 5 1/3 innings.  But I'm betting he will get better. QUOTE:“He’s only going to get better,” manager Bruce Bochy told reporters. “He needs to pitch. He'll get to where he needs to be.” The four-time All-Star is 15-9 with a 2.53 ERA in 29 career games (28 starts) against the Dodgers and get the nod tonight on a value line.

Dodgers are 2-6 in Woods last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game.

Dodgers are 1-6 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

LA DODGERS are just 12-16   against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. LA DODGERS are 4-9  against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less this season.Giants are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.

Play on the SF Giants to win on the moneyline

JORDAN LYLES (R) vs. SEAN NEWCOMB (L)

The Padres ended an eight-game drought in Atlanta on Friday night, beating the National League East-leading Braves 9-3 for their 12th victory in the past 17 games. Those 5 losses, however, have all come by multiple runs.The Braves bullpen blew a lead last night  , but it must be noted that  ATLANTA is 6-0 against the money line after a game where their bullpen blew a save this season.

Lyles the Padres starter today allowed 11 hits in consecutive starts, and in his outing Monday vs. St. Louis he recorded only three swings and misses on 102 pitches.Lyles has a 6.35 ERA in four games (three starts) against the Braves, with the loss in San Diego last week his only decision, allowing 8 runs in just 4.1 innings of work. LYLES when he starts has seen his team go 10-37 in his career against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 with the average margin of defeat coming by 2 rpg.

Meanwhile Sean Newcombe is off a rare bad start last time out and ready to rebound. the southpaw has had a tremendous season overall recording a 2.92 ERA and has been solid at home vs sub par opponents going 5-0 in L/5 starts . Newcombe  has not  allowed a run in his 12 career innings against San Diego. I'm betting the Braves have the edge with Newcombe here again.

ATLANTA is 21-7  against the money line after a loss this season with the average  win coming by more than 2 rpg.  Atlantas last 8 wins have all come by 2 runs or more and they once again have the edge here on the -1.5 value runline.

Play on Atlanta -1.5 on the runline

MAX SCHERZER (R) vs. MARCO ESTRADA (R)

Scherzer the Nationals starter has made eight career starts against the Blue Jays, posting a stingy 2.15 ERA and averaging 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He has thrown at least seven innings and struck out at least nine in three consecutive starts. Needless to say hes owned them and I'm betting nothing will change today. Note: The Nationals have won 15 straight on the money-line by an average of 3.3 rpg with Scherzer as a favorite of more than 135 when they lost his last start.Meanwhile, the Jays starting hurler  Estrada (3-6, 5.09 ERA) is coming off  a quality start   but  that was against a weak, Baltimore offense .Blue Jays are 0-5 in Estradas last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. 

WASHINGTON is 41-9 lL50  against the money line as a road favorite of -175 or more with the average win coming by 2.2 rpg, which qualifies on the runline option.SCHERZER is 23-5   against the money line in road games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game  with the average margin of victory coming by 3 rpg.

MLB Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TORONTO) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265  or less) against a very good NL starting pitcher (ERA 3.00 or better), with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game are 44-10 with the average  with the average scores coming by more than -1.5 runline offer.

Play on the Washington Nationals -1.5 on the runline

WEI-YIN CHEN (L) vs. ALEX COBB (R)

Chen of Miami and Cobb of Baltimore are two hurlers that have struggled recently. But going against respective offenses that must be looked at  as lower tier attacks, these two sometimes very capable hurlers could easily look like Cy Young award candidates.

COBB team when he starts is 15-4 UNDER  in home games in day games  in his career, with a combined average score of 5.6 rpg scored.BALTIMORE in 22 games     vs. a starting pitcher that gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season have seen a combined average of just 7.5 rpg scored. CHEN is 44-23 UNDER  vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season in his career with a combined average score 7.7 rgg going on the board.

BALTIMORE is 21-7 UNDER  L/28  in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.40 or worse with a combined average of 8.2 rpg scored.

MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (MIAMI) - poor power team (0.9 or less  HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 1or more HR's/start against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 6.50 or worse over his last 10 starts are 49-20 UNDER  L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the UNDER

WEI-YIN CHEN (L) vs. ALEX COBB (R)

Both pitchers are nothing to brag about, but from a home filed advantage situation in an interleague game, my own power rankings suggest that Cobb and his team have a big enough edge to get us a win here between two bottom feeders. Orioles are 10-3 in their last 13 interleague home games vs. a left-handed starter

MIAMI is 11-31   against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons..Orioles are 37-17 in their last 54 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record

MLB team (BALTIMORE) - poor AL offensive team (4.2  or less runs/game) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA 5.00 or more), starting a pitcher who was rocked for 7 or more runs last outing 44-17 L/22 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB Home teams (BALTIMORE) - poor AL offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA 5.00 or more ), starting a pitcher who was rocked for 7 or more runs last outing are 31- 10 L/21 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Baltimore Orioles to win on the moneyline

RICK PORCELLO (R) vs. JAMES PAXTON (L)

The BoSox pulled off a 2-1 win in the first game of this series between two contenders last night, but it must be noted that Seattle has proved resilient off a close  loss as is evident by the following trends. SEATTLE is 10-0  against the money line after a loss by 2 runs or less this season and is 8-0    against the money line after a one run loss this season. SEATTLE is also 19-6  against the money line after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs this season

The Mariners will send left-hander James Paxton (6-1, 3.02) to the mound. Paxton,  a hurler that has not lost since his first start of the season, is 2-0 with a 0.39 ERA in three career starts against the Red Sox and gets my backing here tonight.BOSTON is 9-15   against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better this season.

The Red Sox  have also lost 16 straight on the money-line as an  underdog vs a southpaw when they are off a game as a favorite and they faced righties in each of their last three games.

I know Rick Porcello the BoSox starting thrower is currently in top form , but my pitcher vs offense power rankings suggest Seattle matches up well against him.

Red Sox are 0-4 in Porcellos last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.Mariners are 10-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

Play on the Seattle Mariners to win on the moneyline

KYLE GIBSON (R) vs. COREY KLUBER (R)

Two pitchers Gibson( Min) and Kluber ( Indians) with strong ERAs are on the mound, but according to my projections 8 or more runs could easily go on the board here today based on my offensive estimates relating to the Tribes out put. According to my pitcher vs offense power rankings the Indians matchup very well vs Gibson and could come close to eclipsing this Totals number all by themselves. In 14 career starts against Cleveland, Gibson is 2-6 with a 5.60 ERA. He goes against a home team that has averaged 5.8 rpg at home this season. Note: Whether this is anomaly or not  it is still interesting to note- GIBSON is 10-1 OVER  when playing on Friday over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 10.9 rpg scored.

Kluber is a stud, but his bullpen has been a little tainted, and when and if he comes out, things could roll out of hand . MINNESOTA is 31-13 OVER  vs. a team with a bad bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worse over the last 2couple of seasons.

The Indians have gone OVER 10 straight times at home after they had a higher team-left-on-base % than their opponent, going over by an average of 7.1 rpg

Cleveland  s 15-4 OVER   in home games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season with a combined average offensive output of 11.8 rpg going on the board.

Play on the OVER

DAVID PRICE (L) vs. FELIX HERNANDEZ (R)

Seattle starter tonight King Felix is 6-5 this season with a career-worst 5.70 ERA. He has given up four or more runs in five of his past seven starts and now goes against a BoSox team that has averaged 5.3 rpg vs RHP this season. Meanwhile, the Red Sox will return fire with David Price a hurler in top form at the moment. but it must be noted that PRICE in 16 career games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 62% or better ) has seen his team back him with an average of 6.3 rpg and while the opposition has scored an average of 3.9 rpg , for average combined score of 10.2 rpg going on the board. Also Seattle's offense has revved up recently and  has scored an average of 5.33 rpg  in their L/9 trips to the field and is 17-8 OVER   vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season . My own projections estimate  the Mariners will at least score 4 runs while, the Red Sox should also put that many runs on the board, which will I'm betting result in score that eclipsed this beatable total. Note: Seattle has gone over in 5 straight games and have gone over  12 Straight times by 3+ runs off a game as a dog in which they had more than one multiple-run innings.

Over is 5-1 in Prices last 6 starts vs. American League West.Over is 5-1 in Red Sox last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 8-3 in Prices last 11 starts during game 1 of a series.Over is 8-2 in Hernandezs last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 5-1 in Hernandezs last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 6-1 in Hernandezs last 7 starts vs. Red Sox.

Play OVER

BLAKE SNELL (L) vs. DOMINGO GERMAN (R)

My power rankings suggest that the Yankees are the superior team here on their own home turf and overall, and rank as strong play off contenders while the Rays do not. I know the Rays will send Snell to the hill today a hurler who is currently in top form, but the Yanks have a offense with a lot of pop, and have averaged 5.7 rpg game at home, and must be respected as dangerous vs any AL hurler.  Considering Snell is just and 0-3 along  with a bloated 6.55 in Yankee Stadium in his career  it wont be hard for me to go with the hosts in this spot, even though they will post a thrower in Domingo German with average at best numbers. The Yankee starter did look good last time out, in  Saturday's 4-3 victory at the New York Mets when he allowed three runs on five hits in six innings and only two hits after the first inning.

It must be noted that the Rays found a way to win yesterday vs Toronto despite of scoring just one run in a 1-0 win vs a strong hurler in AJ Happ. But in the past this has not been a strong omen for them in the follow up as is TAMPA BAY is just  3-21   against the money line in road games off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog and  are  also 0-24 on the moneyline on the road after a game as a home dog in which they had more strikeouts than hits, getting pounded by an average of 3.5 rpg in the follow up.

NY YANKEES are 22-8 against the money line vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season this season. NY YANKEES are 37-12 against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 dating back to last season.

MLB  favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (NY YANKEES) - good offensive team ( 5.1 or more runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.50 or less ) (AL), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL are 38-9 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on NY Yankees to win on the moneyline

JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. FRANKIE MONTAS (R)

The Astros have owned the first two games of the series between American League West rivals,  winning by  6-3 and 13-5 deficits . More of the same one sided action I'm betting is on todays card, as star hurler Justin Verlander goes to the hill for the Astros.  Verlander  (8-2, 1.45 ERA),  has been particularly dominating on the road where he has garnered a 6-1 record and miniscule 0.96 ERA this season.  Yes, I know he is going against a As pitcher Montas  getting a lot of accolades for a 3-0 start to his career, but two of those wins came against light hitting KC and one against a Arizona team that was struggling offensively when he faced them. This is a whole different kind of offense he will face today, as he goes against a Astros team that has averaged 6 rpg on the road this season and merciless in their domination of their opposition, putting the pedal to the metal from1 through 9.   It must be noted that Astros  have won 18 straight  SU as a 125-plus regular season road favorite when they are off a five-plus run win and it is not a series opener, winning by an average of whopping 6.22 rpg, while the Athletics  in their L/9  at home off a home game in which they struck out at least ten times, which happened in yesterdays 13-5 loss  have scored an average of  just 1.89 rpg in the follow up. 

HOUSTON is 18-4  against the money line in road games after batting .333 or better over a 3 game span dating back to last season winning by an average of 4 rpg.

HOUSTON is 19-4  SU  in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season with the average margin of victory coming by 4.2 rpg. OAKLAND is 9-24  SU  in home games vs. a team with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last few seasons losing by an average of 2.2 rpg.

OAKLAND is 2-12 L/14  SU  in home games revenging 4 or more straight losses vs opponent  with the average loss coming by 2.8 rpg.

MLB favorites against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+115 to +160) (HOUSTON) - good offensive team (5.1 or more runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.50 or less) (AL), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL are 33-14 L/5 seasons winning by an average of 2.8 rpg.

Play on the Houston Astros -1.5 Runline

ANDREW SUAREZ (L) vs. CALEB SMITH (L)

Miami has had the Giants number for a while now, and even when they look like they have an advantage they fall flat on their faces .  The giants have now lost 6 of their L/7 games vs the Marlins and have lost 4 of their L/5 here in South Florida.

Today we have two young pitchers on the hill, that throw consistently in the low 90s.  The Marlins Smith holds the advantage over a Suarez as the later, has not looked comfortable in his  five road starts this year,  going just 1-2 along with a bloated 6.75 ERA. Meanwhile, the Marlins Smith   leads National League rookies with 79 strikeouts. In his 13 starts this season, he is averaging 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings, which is a steady improvement from his 8.7 stat line of 2017. His walk rate of 4.1 is high but yet improved from his 4.8 figure of last year. This kids gaining confidence and deserves my backing in this spot play. Giants have lost 7 of their L/10 vs a LHP.

Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Giants are 22-46 in their last 68 road games.

MLB Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - ice cold hitting team - batting .175 or worse over their last 3 games, in June games are 22-62 L/5 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Miami Marlins to win on the moneyline

The Rockies enter this game in a funk and  are on a five-game losing streak. Everything was going their way earlier this season despite of inconsistent offensive results, but now their pitching is failing them as well, and their not playing clutch ball. For example yesterday they out hit the Phillies but still lost, because of their inability to score with runners in scoring position. The Rockies have been outscored 41-24 during their last five games and look to be down-trending in a big way, and very much look fade material here again tonight in Philly. Tonight I expect Phillies starter  Nick Pivetta who owns a solid 2.20 ERA at home this season in 7 starts to help his team score the W.Rockies are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.Phillies are 9-2 in Pivettas last 11 home starts.Nick Pivetta is 7-0 L/7 on the money-line when facing a team on a multi-game losing streak.

Note that  Anderson the Rockies starter is off a quality start last time out his best of the season, but that is not a good omen for his team as he has seen his side go just 3-13 after a quality start

Phillies are 25-12 in their last 37 home games.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (PHILADELPHIA) - with a team slugging percentage .390 or worse on the season (NL), after a one run win are a bankroll expanding 98-38 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Philadelphia Phillies to win on the moneyline

I've picked the Pirates in two straight games in Arizona, and have come up short both times. I know Einstein said, that doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is a sign of insanity , but here I go again. Call me crazy if you like, but I'm recommending we take the Pirates on the value line, as my power rankings suggest they the Bucks actually matchup well vs the Dbacks despite of both teams currently being on different trajectories.

Greinke the DBacks starter came away with the win at Colorado on Friday despite yielding four runs and eight hits - two homers - in 5 2/3 innings and just didn't look right with his delivery. Meanwhile, Taillon owns a 2.79 ERA in his L/3 starts and is  11-4 last 15 starts during game 3 of a series and his team 6-2 in his last 8 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game ( Arizona won 13-8 yesterday). Pirates are 7-3 in Taillons last 10 starts with 5 days of rest and provides the Pirates an opportunity to stay in this game and pull off the upset.

Diamondbacks are 2-7 in their last 9 during game 3 of a series. Whether this is an anomaly or not its still interesting to note that the DBacks have lost 8 straight Wednesday games. Hump day algorithm in play here.

MLB Home teams (ARIZONA) - with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (NL), with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 5 games are 14-38 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pittsburgh Pirates to win on the moneyline

This selection is based on the dominance of DeGrom vs the Braves this season. they just can't figure him out. With that said, Mets starter DeGrom (4-1, 1.57 ERA) will be making his fourth start against the Braves this season and has yet to have a decision despite a 0.50 ERA,.DeGrom is 5-3 with a 1.84 ERA in 14 career starts against the Braves, striking out 98 in 88 innings. DeGrom's ERA is the best in the National League by nearly a half run and he is second best with 106 strikeouts in 80 1/3 innings and he gets my backing here this afternoon vs the Atlanta Braves. Mets are 20-8 in DeGroms last 28 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. It must be noted that the Braves won yesterday but have not won back to back games since June 1 and I'm betting on that trend continuing here this Wednesday afternoon.

Play on the NY Mets to win on the moneyline