Left-hander Danny Duffy  goes for Kansas City vs the Tigers. Duffy (3-5, 4.28 ERA) has not been credited with a victory since May 19, though he's delivered four quality outings in his last five starts. He held Cleveland to two runs on five hits in 6 2/3 innings in his last start on July 3  and gets my support here tonight at home.

Royals are 12-3 in Duffys last 15 starts with 8 or more days of rest.

Tigers are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Tigers are 1-9 in their last 10 vs. American League Central.Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.Tigers are 0-5 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.Tigers are 0-6 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.Tigers are 0-7 in Turnbulls last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.Tigers are 0-4 in Turnbulls last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Tigers are 0-5 in Turnbulls last 5 starts.

KANSAS CITY is 14-4  against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with an slugging percentage .400 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. KANSAS CITY is 16-6 against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons

MLB Road teams (DETROIT) - below average hitting team (AVG .265) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 4.70) -AL, starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest are 9-34 L/5 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the KC Royals to win on the ML

Yu Darvish (2-4, 5.01 ERA, 111 SO) will open the Cubs' second half against the Pirates, whom he faced on July 3. In that no-decision, the righty gave up four runs with six strikeouts and no walks in 6 2/3 innings and according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup all that well vs the Pirates. . Darvish is 0-6 with a 5.91 ERA in 13 career starts at Wrigley Field and is fade material according to my projections this afternoon. DARVISH is 3-9  against the money line in home games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) DARVISH is 5-16  against the money line in July games in his career. (Team's Record) 

Pirates are 4-0 in their starters Archers last 4 starts vs. National League Central.Pirates are 4-0 in Archers last 4 starts.Cubs are 3-13 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

Cubs have lost 16 of their L/26 overall. 

PITTSBURGH is 28-13  against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season.

MLB Road teams (PITTSBURGH) - with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games, starting a over rested pitcher who is working on 7 or more days rest are 51-17 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Pittsburgh Pirates to win on the ML

Lance Lynn ,11-4, 3.91 ERA, 123 SOLynn is 9-2 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in his last 13 starts. He is averaging 4.73 strikeouts per walk, which ranks eighth best in the American League. He lost his only start against the Astros this season, but he is 4-2 with a 2.20 ERA in seven career starts against them and Im betting will limit the Astros offensive output here tonight. LYNN is 26-6 UNDER in July games in his career. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.9 rpg scored. 

Under is 4-0 in Lynns last 4 starts during game 1 of a series.Under is 4-1 in Lynns last 5 starts vs. American League West.Under is 7-2 in Lynns last 9 starts overall.Under is 6-2 in Lynns last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Under is 6-2 in Lynns last 8 starts on grass.Under is 5-2 in Lynns last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Meanwhile, Framber Valdez goes to the hill for the Astros. He has been less than effecient this season, but Texas has had issues with LHP as is evident by their .226 BA vs southpaws, and could easily find the sledding tough , which Im also betting limits their output vs projection estimates. 

HOUSTON is 9-0 UNDER  in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.9 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.1 rpg scored.

MLB Home teams where the total is 10 or higher (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start are 65-30 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER  

The public is all over the over here , which is not a surprise, considering last years all star game saw 14 runs go on the board. However, my projections estimate a much lower score than many might anticipate as these top tier hurlers from both the AL/NL matchup up very well vs each other star batting orders. The so called juiced ball myth goes down in flames here this Tuesday night.(At least for now)

Nine of the last 11 MLB all star games have gone under 8.5 runs. The L/11 all star games have seen an average of 6.8 rpg scored.

Pitchers:

AL: Astros' Justin Verlander (10-3, 2.86 ERA) and Gerrit Cole (AL No.1- 161 strikeouts), Chicago's Lucas Giolito (11-2, 2.72 ERA)  Rangers' Mike Minor (8-4, 2.40 ERA).

NL:major-league ERA leader Hyun-Jin Ryu (9-2, 1.83), .  Clayton Kershaw (eighth All-Star appearance), Walker Buehler (8-1, 104 strikeouts) and 2018 Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom most probably coming  out of the bullpen.

Play on the UNDER 

Colorado starter German Marquez (8-3, 4.38 ERA, 120 SO) Away from Coors Field, Marquez is 4-2 with a 3.06 ERA in nine starts. Home or away hes a reliable hurler (4-1, 5.73 at the launching pad known as Coors Field). Even with the elevated ERA, the contact against him has not been solid and he gives us a solid opportunity to cash a ticket today with the visitors. 

ARIZONA is 17-29 against the money line against division opponents this season. LOVULLO is 10-18 against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season as the manager of ARIZONA. 

MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (COLORADO) - with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season (NL), with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games are 61-15 L/22 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Colorado Rockies to win on the ML

In the series finale, Milwaukee right-hander Chase Anderson (4-2, 4.31 ERA) is scheduled to face righty Joe Musgrove (6-7, 4.13). It's a rematch of a game May 30, also at PNC Park, when Anderson got the better of Musgrove in an 11-5 Brewers win. Im betting on Anderson getting the edge here today again. I know Milwaukee has been slumping offensively of late but it must be noted that MILWAUKEE is 7-0 against the money line after batting .200 or worse over a 5 game span over the last 2 seasons.

Milwaukee was blasted 12-2 yesterday by the underdog Pirates but the Brewers have proven resilient in this spot in the past as is evident by the following trend. Note: MILWAUKEE is 21-4 against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Brewers are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.Brewers are 8-2 in Andersons last 10 starts vs. Pirates.Brewers are 4-1 in Andersons last 5 road starts vs. Pirates.

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win on the ML

Nola the Phillies starter has been on a roll as of late. He has allowed just one earned run in 23 innings in his last three starts, striking out 28 and walking five and Im betting on the more of the same here today vs the NY Mets. Meanwhile, Wheeler the Mets starter has been his  team’s most significant hurler of late as he owns a 1.86 ERA his last three starts. Im betting on both these throwers going long and strong and for this tilt to stay on the low side of the total.

(Wheeler owns a 2.95 ERA in 13 career starts against the Phillies. Nola has garnered a  3.48 ERA in 11 starts against the Mets.)

Under is 4-0-1 in Wheelers last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.

NOLA is 21-9 UNDER vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record with a combined average of 7.4 rpg scored. )NOLA is 16-5 UNDER  when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) since 1997. (Team's Record)  with a combined average of 6.7 rpg scored.NOLA is 13-3 UNDER  vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 5.7 rpg scored.

NY METS are 31-14 UNDER  in home games after 4 or more consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.9 rpg scored.

Under is 4-0 in umpire Gucciones last 4 games behind home plate.

Play UNDER

Maeda the Dodgers starter showed his abilities when he opened his last start with four scoreless innings at Coors Field, which is never easy and deserves respect here at home as favorite. He is 6-3 in his career against San Diego and gets the nod in this spot play. Maeda's 94 strikeouts against the Padres are his most against any team. 

Maeda had a 4.21 ERA over five June starts, but he gave up two earned runs or less in four of those outings and on the season has garnered a very stingy 2.04 ERA at home.

 LA DODGERS are 27-5 against the money line in home games against right-handed starters like the Padres Paddock this season.

Last night the Padres found a way to be the dodgers ace Kershaw by a 3-2 count but tonight Im betting on the Dodgers bouncing back. In the past the Dodgers have proven extremely resilient under these circumstances as the following trend would indicate. Note: The Dodgers are 14-0 on the ML as a favorite off a loss as a favorite in which they never led. LA has won each of their last seven games  under these perimeters by multiple run counts. 

 LA DODGERS are 19-3  against the money line in home games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. LA DODGERS are 25-6 against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse this season. 

MLB team (LA DODGERS) - very good offensive team - scoring 5.0  or more runs/game on the season (NL), after scoring and allowing 5 runs or less last 4 games are 34-12 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate.

Play on the LA Dodgers to win on the ML

Atlanta is 9-1 on the ML against the Marlins this season, including three shutout victories. Miami has scored more than two runs in only three of the 10 games against the Braves and are fade material on the runline here this afternoon.

Note: Atlanta Braves left-hander Max Fried will be making his first start Saturday since the death of his close friend, Los Angeles Angels left-hander Tyler Skaggs.

The Braves have had their way with lower tier teams:ATLANTA is 13-1  against the money line when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 38% or less) this season with the average run differential clicking in a +3 per game.

Play on the Atlanta Braves to win on the RL -1.5

If  Orioles Cashner veteran righty hander is in top form. He's enjoying a bounceback season at age 32, going 8-3 with a 4.03 ERA in 16 starts. Cashner pitched to a 1.44 ERA in June and gets my support here this afternoon in Toronto. Cashner pitched six scoreless innings in earning the win against Toronto on April 2. He is 2-2 with a 2.68 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Blue Jays.

TORONTO is 1-12 against the money line with a tired bullpen - after 3 straight games throwing 4+ innings this season. MONTOYO is 8-30  against the money line after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more as the manager of TORONTO.

Orioles are 5-0 in Cashners last 5 Saturday starts.Orioles are 6-1 in Cashners last 7 starts during game 2 of a series.Orioles are 5-1 in Cashners last 6 starts.Orioles are 4-1 in Cashners last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.Orioles are 7-2 in Cashners last 9 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

MLB team (BALTIMORE) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%, poor fielding team - averaging 0.75+ errors/game on the season are 35-17 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rare for bettors. 

Play on the Baltimore Orioles to win on the ML

 The DBacks are on a 3 game losing streak but with their stopper Greinke on the hill Im betting they end their mini slump today.  It must be noted that  the Diamondbacks are 8-0  on at least a three-game losing streak, beating their opponents by 2.6 runs per game when Greinke goes to the hill.  

ARIZONA is 25-11 SU revenging 2 straight home losses vs opponent over the last 3 seasons winning by an average of 2,2 rpg. GREINKE is 45-12  against the money line as a home favorite of -175 to -250 since 1997. (Team's Record) with a run diff of 2.1 rpg. 

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -150 or more (ARIZONA) - very good offensive team (5.0 runs/game or more) against an average starter (ERA 4.20 to 5.20)-NL, on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors are 102-25 SU L/22 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Arizona DBacks to win on the ML

The NY Yankees explosive offence is averaging 6.3 rpg on the road this season, with a combined average of 11.5 rpg scored in those 40 games and Im betting on them unloading here vs a rookie hurler in McKay. Meanwhile, Yankees hurler Tanaka lasted just two-thirds of an inning in his start in London, allowing six runs and has not been consistent this season, and Im betting he looks vulnerable entering game and susceptible to being lit up. Note: The Yankees are 9-0 L/9 OVER when Masahiro Tanaka starts as a road favorite when they scored first in his last start in a Yankees victory, going over by an average of 6.05 runs per game.

NY YANKEES are 22-5 OVER in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse this season with a combined average of 11.5 rpg scored. NY YANKEES are 13-2 OVER  in road games against division opponents this season with a combined average of 13.4 rpg scored.NY YANKEES are 11-3 OVER on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season with a combined average of 10.7 rpg scored. 

TAMPA BAY is 9-1 OVER  in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season with a combined average of 10.3 rpg scored. 

All 3 games in TB have gone over this season, and thats what Im betting on here tonight.

Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 vs. American League East.Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 vs. a team with a winning recordOver is 3-0-2 in Rays last 5 home games.Over is 4-0-1 in Rays last 5 vs. American League East.Over is 8-1-2 in Rays last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Over is 5-1-1 in umpire Lentzs last 7 games behind home plate.

Play on the OVER 

Canning the Halos starter is making his 12th career start after beating Oakland in his most recent outing last Thursday. He threw six innings and allowed two earned runs, while striking out six and is a viable underdog in this spot play vs a Texas side slumping in on a 4 game losing streak. Note: Rangers are 4-9 in their last 13 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

Angels are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.TEXAS is 6-18 (against the money line in home games in July games over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on the LA Angels to win on the ML

In 11 starts this season, the Rays starter today Chirinos is 4-4 with a 2.79 ERA. The right-hander has made three appearances against the Yankees this season, going 1-1 with a 3.07 ERA and is a viable pitcher to back here tonight on a value home dog line. Meanwhile, JA Happ Happ the Yanks starter   looks vulnerable in his current form as was evident when he allowed eight runs in four innings against the Astros last time out. 

TAMPA BAY is 10-4  against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 62% or better) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. TAMPA BAY is 24-14  against the money line as a home underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. 

Rays are 16-5 in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

MLB team (NY YANKEES) - average hitting team (AVG .265 to .279) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or better) -AL, with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games are 13-43 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the TB Rays to win on the ML

Quintana threw more secondary pitches (51) than fastballs (50) on Saturday in Cincinnati and as result threw six shutout innings. He had struggled . a bit prior to that , but his veteran composure is now guiding him making him a viable pitcher to back against a Pittsburgh team that struggles against southpaw pitching averaging 4.2 rpg on a batting average barely above the Mendoza line of .250. 

Pirates are 0-4 in their starters Lyles' last 4 starts vs. National League Central and are 0-4 in Lyles' last 4 starts.

LYLES is 0-14  against the money line in July games in his career. (Team's Record) 

MLB team (PITTSBURGH) - average hitting team (AVG .255 to .269) against an average starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20) -NL, red hot hitting team - batting .300 or better over their last 20 games are 18-38 L/22 seasons for go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the ML

Castillo the Reds Starter has not fared well against the Brewers in 2019. The last time against them, on June 22, he threw 96 pitches in only 3 2/3 innings and gave up six runs (four earned) while walking five. Over three starts vs. MIL, he is 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA. 

Reds are 1-9 in their last 10 during game 4 of a series.

Meanwhile Brewers fireballer Brandon Woodruff (10-2, 3.79 ERA, 120 SO) will be facing the Reds for the second time in three starts. At Miller Park on June 23, he set a career high with 12 strikeouts while allowing three runs in seven innings and gets mu support here again today.  WOODRUFF is 16-3 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)  

Brewers are 8-0 in Woodruffs last 8 starts vs. National League Central.

Reds are 1-4 in Castillos last 5 starts vs. National League Central.Reds are 1-9 in their last 10 during game 4 of a series.

Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MILWAUKEE) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%. are 43-18 L/22 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win on the ML

Tigers have been a bad road team for a while as their  record  28-60 in their last 88 road games suggests . They also have not faired well against right handed pitchers like Lopez recording a  19-48 mark in their last 67 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Add to that the Tigers are 8-21 in their last 29 vs. American League Central and  8-21 in their last 29 vs. a team with a losing record puts them in my fade material power rankings column. Considering the Tigers starter Boyd has seen his team lose his L/7 starts vs the Pale Hose it will not be a hard decision to go against this Motown crew this afternoon. Note:Lopez is 2-2 with a 2.86 ERA in nine career starts against Detroit. He has pitched effectively against the Tigers in two starts this season, going 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA while striking out 22 batters in 12 innings. is a viable hurler to back in this spot play. 

MLB Road teams (DETROIT) - ice cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs are 12-40 L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago White Sox to win on the ML

SHAUN ANDERSON (R) vs. CAL QUANTRILL (R)

SF has suddenly gone form zeros to heros of late , as their usually light hitting offense has exploded for 33 runs in their L/3 games and in their current form value based underdogs tonight in San Diego against the Fathers. With up trending starter Anderson, on the hill   the Giants' are a must play team. He has been the most consistent starter in the their rotation, and  delivered another strong performance Friday, holding the D-backs to two runs over 5 2/3 innings. He faced the Padres on June 12 and gave up two runs over six innings and gets the nod again here tonight. Note:SAN DIEGO is 0-7  against the money line revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite of -150 or more this season. 

Play on the SF Giants 

Kyle Gibson RHP8-4, 4.21 ERA, 88 SOGibson was scheduled to start Sunday's series finale against the White Sox but was pushed back because he was needed for an inning of relief in Thursday's 18-inning game against the Rays. He allowed four runs in seven frames in his last start and does not matchup well vs this AS batting order according to my advanced data power ranking listings. Oakland has scored 7 or more runs in 3 of their L/4 and look to be heating up offensively and could do some series damage today. Meanwhile, Minnesota remains a dangerous offensive team averaging 6.3 rpg and no matter who goes to the hill today will be able to rspond in game with some fireworks of their own .With that said Im recommending we take the over. 

GIBSON is 40-19 OVER vs. an AL team with a batting average of .260 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record) 

OAKLAND is 21-10 OVER  vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.OAKLAND is 10-1 OVER  after scoring 8 runs or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. 

Play OVER 

MIKE CLEVINGER (R) vs. DANNY DUFFY (L)

Clevinger the Tribes starter  knows he has to play catch-up after missing two months of the season with an upper back strain. In his last start (his first since being reactivated off the IL from a left ankle sprain), he allowed a career-high seven runs in 1 2/3 innings and im betting he is still not 100% and susceptible to being lit up.Over is 6-0 in Clevingers last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.

Meanwhile, Danny Duffy gave up three runs over 6 2/3 innings in a loss to the Blue Jays on Friday. He allowed a game-tying two-run shot to Lourdes Gurriel in the sixth before Eric Sogard slugged a go-ahead solo blast in the seventh. It was obviously a disappointing way to end it. Duffy fanned eight and walked just one in taking the loss. He remains winless since way back on May 19 and does matchup well vs the Tribe according to my pitcher vs batting order power rnakings.

Over is 11-3 in Duffys last 14 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Over is 7-2-1 in Duffys last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 6-2 in Duffys last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 11-4 in Duffys last 15 Wednesday starts.Over is 10-4-1 in Duffys last 15 starts during game 2 of a series.Over is 7-3-1 in Duffys last 11 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 9-4 in Duffys last 13 home starts.

. CLEVELAND is 25-12 OVER after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 7.00 or worse over the last 2 seasons.KANSAS CITY is 21-11 OVER  with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent this season.

Play OVER 

Brewers RH Jhoulys Chacin (3-8, 5.60 ERA) vs. Reds RH Sonny Gray (4-5, 3.94)

Gray the Reds starter  continued to uptrend  by improving to 4-1 in his last seven starts after yielding two runs on four hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 6-3 win versus the Chicago Cubs last time out.  The Cinncy tighty owns a 1-0 record along with a very stable 2.76 ERA in three career starts against Milwaukee. Meanwhile, Chacin the Brewer starter is also pitching better, and getting more out of his slider,  and poses a matchup issue for the Reds batting oder. 

CHACIN is 16-6 UNDER  as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 8.6 rpg going on the board. 

CINCINNATI is 12-2 UNDER  vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start this season with a combined average of 6.4 rpg scored.CINCINNATI is 33-13 UNDER)vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 errors/game or less this season with a combined average of 7.7 rpg scored.

Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 overall.Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 on grass.Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 Wednesday games.Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 vs. National League Central. Under is 3-1-1 in Brewers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 22-8-1 in Brewers last 31 during game 3 of a series.Under is 21-9-1 in Brewers last 31 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 5-1 in Chacins last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.Under is 13-3 in Chacins last 16 road starts.Under is 8-2 in Chacins last 10 starts following a team loss in their previous game.Under is 6-2 in Chacins last 8 starts with 4 days of rest.Under is 5-2 in Chacins last 7 Wednesday starts.Under is 20-8 in Chacins last 28 starts on grass.Under is 20-8 in Chacins last 28 starts overall.

Under is 12-3-1 in Reds last 16 Wednesday games.Under is 10-3 in Reds last 13 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 10-3 in Reds last 13 games following a win.Under is 10-3 in Reds last 13 home games.Under is 6-2 in Reds last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 6-2 in Reds last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 14-5 in Reds last 19 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 12-5-1 in Reds last 18 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Under is 7-3 in Reds last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 42-19-3 in Reds last 64 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 66-31-3 in Reds last 100 overall.Under is 66-31-3 in Reds last 100 on grass.Under is 5-1 in Grays last 6 starts during game 3 of a series. Under is 5-2-1 in Grays last 8 starts vs. National League Central.

Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Cincinnati.

Under is 6-0-1 in Estabrooks last 7 games behind home plate vs. Cincinnati.Under is 7-1 in Estabrooks last 8 games behind home plate vs. Milwaukee.Under is 43-21-4 in Estabrooks last 68 games behind home plate.

Play UNDER

The Giants had their biggest offensive output in 9 games yesterday putting 10 runs on the board, but today I expect the light hitting Giants revert back to their usual ways, and come closer to their 3.4 rpg game out vs LHP which the Fathers starter Strahm just so happens to be. Meanwhile, the Padres despite of playing decently this season are still only averaging 3.9 rpg at home , with their saving grace being that they also only allow 4 runs per game which makes for a 7.9 rpg average here at Petco. Im betting on more of the same low scoring action today. 

Four of the 5 meetings in this series  here in Petco have all stayed under the total. 

MLB Home teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (SAN DIEGO) - poor hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against a terrible starting pitcher (ERA 6.20 or more ) -NL, with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game are 36-12 UNDER  L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Colorados starter Marquez has a positive home W/L record at Coors but  has a 5.70 ERA in nine home starts , and is vulnerable vs a Houston team that can be explosive and that matches up well against him according to my projections and power ranking conversion charts.

HOUSTON is 13-2 against the money line in road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 70-20 against the money line vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons.HOUSTON is 14-1  against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons. HINCH is 17-6 against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season as the manager of HOUSTON. 

Astros are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Colorado.Astros are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.

 MLB team (COLORADO) - hot hitting team - batting .290 or better over their last 15 games, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.50 the last 5 games are 61-91 L/5 seasons for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Houston Astros to win on the ML

For the second straight start, Price will be on six days of rest. It worked for Price last time, as he held the White Sox to two earned runs in six innings in a win. Lifetime against the Blue Jays, Price has dazzled, going 22-3 with a 2.37 ERA. I know the Blue Jays have been hammering these juice balls around of late, but today Im betting their offensive output will be curtailed against a top tier hurler who has a recent record of success against them. Meanwhile,Thornton the Jay starter will open Toronto’s three-game series against the Red Sox after holding Boston to two runs over 6 1/3 innings when he last faced the reigning World Series champions on June 21 and should also help limit the Red sox in what I project is a favorable lineup for him to face. With that said Im betting on a total score that fails to eclipse this slightly bloated total that is based on recency bias. 

TORONTO is 30-13 UNDER in home games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 8.5 rpg scored.

PRICE is 12-3 UNDER  as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.9 rpg scored.

Play UNDER 

Giants RH Jeff Samardzija (4-7, 4.52 ERA) vs. Padres LH Logan Allen (2-0, 1.38)

Samardzija has struggled of late but owns  a 2.44 ERA in nine career games (eight starts) at Petco Park . Meanwhile, Padres starter Allen threw seven scoreless innings while allowing just  three hits in his debut in the majors June 18 against Milwaukee and followed that up with six innings of two-run ball in a win  at Baltimore on Tuesday vs the Orioles and is a strong conadidate again to limit the light hitting Giants here tonight. 

 SAN FRANCISCO is 21-9 UNDER vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7 rpg scored. 

SAN DIEGO is 11-3 UNDER  in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season with a combined average of 6.5 rpg scored. 

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in San Diego.Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

Play UNDER 

In 23 opener starts this season, Stanek is 0-1 with a 2.25 ERA. The Rays are 15-8 in games started by the right-hander this season. Ryan Yarbrough is likely to get the bulk of the innings on Monday. This combination of pitchers Im betting trumps the Orioles pitching options. 

BALTIMORE is 3-22 SU vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season with the average run per game diff clicking in at -2.2 rpg. BALTIMORE is 1-18 SU after allowing 3 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with the average run diff clicking in at -3.6 rpg. HYDE is 3-23 SU vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) as the manager of BALTIMORE with a average rpg diff of -3.0 rpg. 

TAMPA BAY is 20-4 SU when playing on Monday over the last 2 seasons with a average run per game differential of +2.7 rpg. 

Orioles are 2-7 in the last 9 meetings.Orioles are 3-14 in the last 17 meetings in Tampa Bay.

MLB Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (TAMPA BAY) - AL team with a low on-base percentage (.320) against a team with a bad bullpen (WHIP 1.550 or better ), cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games are 42-16 L/22 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors and a perfect 4-0 100% this season.

Play on TB on the -1.5 runline 

The Mets expect their starter Syndergaard, who has been on the injured list since June 16, to return Sunday night at Citi Field. Syndergaard most recently pitched on a rehab assignment Tuesday for Class A Brooklyn allowing 3 runs in a rusty effort as he rehabbed a strained right hamstring. I know the Mets righty is healthy but rust Im betting hampers him here tonight as will his beleaguered and imploding bull pen support. Fried (9-3, 3.96 ERA) his pitching opponent from the Braves  is 1-1 with a 1.77 ERA in seven career games (three starts) against the Mets. Syndergaard is 0-2 with a 3.49 ERA in seven starts against the Braves.

 .Note: New York has blown a lead in the sixth inning or later five times during its losing streak.

Braves are 5-0 in Frieds last 5 road starts and are 6-0 in Frieds last 6 starts during game 3 of a series are also 5-0 in Frieds last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Braves are 7-0 in Frieds last 7 starts with 4 days of rest and are 5-0 in Frieds last 5 starts..Braves are 5-0 in Frieds last 5 Sunday starts.Braves are 5-0 in Frieds last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.

ATLANTA is 20-7  against the money line in June games this season. 

Mets are 0-7 in their last 7 vs. National League East.Mets are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a loss.Mets are 0-6 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Mets are 0-7 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.Mets are 0-7 in their last 7 overall.

Braves are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.Braves are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in New York.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ATLANTA) - team with a good SLG (.430 or better) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 or better) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL) are 56-26 L/22 seasons for a for 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Braves to win on the ML

We have a situation here today to bet into that shows us two teams that are operating at the polar opposite end of the performance spectrum. The Padres have hit 16 homers during their four-game winning streak. The Cardinals have scored a total of 10 runs during their five-game losing streak. With the Cards starter Mikolas mimicking his teams performance levels, the Cards are fade material here today. Note: The cards former all start pitcher  has worked 89 1/3 innings in 16 starts, giving up 44 runs (43 earned).

The under rated Padres are 12-0 L/12 on the ML as a favorite coming off a game as a favorite in which they scored 6+ runs which was the case yesterday.

ST LOUIS is 3-13  against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. 

SAN DIEGO is 16-4  against the money line vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing 0.35 or less SB's/game this season. 

Play on the San Diego Padres to win on the ML

Lester the Cubs starter  garnered  a victory on Monday after holding the Braves to two unearned runs in six innings (seven strikeouts, no walks). The veteran lefty has gone 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA in seven career starts (45 K, nine BB, 45 1/3 IP) in Cincinnati and gets my support here today . Meanwhile,  after  opening June with three one-run starts, DeSclafani struggled against the Brewers, getting smacked around for six runs in 4 1/3 innings on Sunday. On May 24 at Wrigley Field, DeSclafani allowed four runs to the Cubs in 3 2/3 innings and is fade material here.

LESTER is 21-6  against the money line vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)LESTER is 11-1 against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)LESTER is 9-1  against the money line in June games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The Cubs are 18-0 on the ML as chalk with Jon Lester when he has less than seven days rest and did not walk a batter in his last start.

CHICAGO CUBS are 17-2 against the money line on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5 over the last 3 seasons

CINCINNATI is 11-24 against the money line in day games this season.

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the ML

Chavez the Rangers starter is in top form and has allowed one earned run over 14 1/3 innings in his past three appearances. During that stretch, he's struck out 14 batters without a walk.He's 0-1 with a 2.79 ERA in nine career appearances (one start) against the Rays and is more than capable of slowing the Rays struggling offence here today. Meanwhile, Snell the Rays starter despite of being a quality hurler, has slumped of late, but going against the Rangers may help Snell regain his form. He's 2-0 with a 0.79 ERA in two career starts versus Texas, both coming last year. With that said, Im betting on this combined score staying on the low side of the total.

 SNELL is 17-3 UNDER vs. an AL team with a batting average of .265 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) 

TEXAS is 15-3 UNDER in road games after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 6.8 rpg scored.

TAMPA BAY is 7-0 UNDER after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base this season.CASH is 26-13 UNDER  after batting .200 or worse over a 5 game span as the manager of TAMPA BAY.

MLB Road teams (TEXAS) - good offensive team (5.1 or more runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ER  4.70 to 5.70)-AL, with a slugging percentage of .330 or worse over their last 3 games are 76-37 UNDER L/22 seasons for 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Diamondbacks RH Zack Greinke (8-3, 3.08 ERA) vs. Giants LH Drew Pomeranz (2-8, 6.79)

Greinke, the Dbacks starter will be facing the Giants for the first time this season. Right now the veteran righty is in top form as is evident by a career-best 6.2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The right-hander has allowed nine runs over his last two starts (13 innings), and  5-0 with a 1.37 ERA in five career Oracle Park starts. Meanwhile, his pitching opponent Pomeranz is 0-4 with an 8.53 ERA in 10 career appearances (seven starts) versus Arizona , including 0-1 with an 8.59 mark in two starts this season and is fade material in this spot.

GREINKE is 16-3  against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 
 GREINKE is 31-6  against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4 or less runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record) 

The Diamondbacks are 7-0 on the ML when Zack Greinke starts as a road favorite in June when they won in his last start.

The Diamondbacks are 11-0 on the ML as a road favorite when 500 on the season.

Play on the Arizona DBacks to win on the ML

Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (7-1, 3.07 ERA) vs. Rockies RH Jon Gray (8-5, 3.92)

There is a very high total attached to this game here in launching pad known as Coors Field. But its interesting to note that  Kershaw’s starts with an over/under of 10 or higher  have been in away games , and in those tilts the  Dodgers are just 1-4 , losing by 2.6 runs per game. His last two such event back in 2008 and 2009 here at Coors Field saw him get beaten around  losing 10-1 and 10-4 and Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here, as Kershaw enters this game a little wobbly after getting roughed up in Chase Field last time out . Meanwhile, the Rockies starting ace Jon Gray has steadily has been performing more and more like the staff ace they believe he can be. He's already two-thirds of the way (8) toward matching his personal standard for victories, which he established last year by winning 12 games and gets my support here today on a value home MLine. 

Dodgers are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

Rockies are 4-0 in Grays last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.Rockies are 4-0 in Grays last 4 starts vs. National League West.Rockies are 8-0 in Grays last 8 starts with 4 days of rest.

Rockies are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Rockies are 7-2 in their last 9 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Rockies are 13-4 in their last 17 home games.

Colorado snapped a 7 game losing streak vs the Dodgers last night with a 13-9 win and now have confidence and momentum on they're sides.

COLORADO is 9-0 against the money line after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs this season.  Colorado is 23-7 money line after a game with a combined score of 17 runs or more over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Colorado Rockies to win on the ML

The market has moved enough on this total to make it a value under situation. 

The Orioles believe their starter today Cashner is over the blister problems he dealt with during the middle weeks of June, after the right-hander completed six innings last time out without issue. Meanwhile, Tribe starter Plesac will look to win his third consecutive start on Saturday in Baltimore and has momentum on his side . Th right-hander got off to a slow start Sunday vs. the Tigers, but settled in to toss seven solid frames, allowing one run (a solo HR) on just  five hits. Today Im expecting and betting  both these hurlers to go long and strong and to help keep this score on the low side of the total. 

Under is 4-1-1 in Indians last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 21-8-1 in Indians last 30 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Under is 5-1 in Cashners last 6 starts with 6 days of rest.Under is 6-1 in Orioles last 7 vs. American League Central.Under is 9-2-1 in Orioles last 12 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 4-1-1 in Orioles last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

CLEVELAND in 39 games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season have seen a combined average score of 8.2 rpg go on the board.CLEVELAND is 21-10 UNDER  as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season of 7.6 rpg scored.

BALTIMORE in their L/187 games when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score 9.4 rpg scored.

Under is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings in Baltimore.

Play UNDER

The Pirates will send right-hander Chris Archer (3-6, 5.56 ERA) to the mound Friday to take on Brewers right-hander Jhoulys Chacin (3-8, 5.88).

The two pitchers faced off May 31 in Pittsburgh, a game the Pirates won 9-4.

Brewers starter Chacin hasn't cleared the fifth inning in either of his starts since a stint on the injured list for back tightness, continuing what has been a excruciatingly disappointing season and is fade material here vs what is currently a hot hitting Pirates team off a 10-0 win vs the Houston Astros last time out and winners of 7 of their L/8 overall. Note: The Brewers are 1-5 in Chacins last 6 starts vs. Pirates. 

PITTSBURGH is 7-1  against the money line after a game they hit 4 or more home runs over the last 3 seasons. 

MLB Road teams (PITTSBURGH) - average hitting team (AVG  .255 to .269) against a poor starting pitcher (ERA 5.70 or worse) -NL, with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 5 games are 125-62 L/22 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Pittsburgh Pirates to win on the ML

I know the Detroit Tigers have been tanking and their in a horrendous slump, so forgive me for my never ending and insidious search for value lines with bad teams. Norris the Tigers hurler has been pitching well of late, 25ks in his L/29 innings of work and offers up very good contrarian value here as a AL home team in interleague action. Note: Detroit is 7-1 L/8 vs the Nationals in Comerica  Park.

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (WASHINGTON) - after 3 straight games where they committed no errors, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 8.00 the last 5 games are 25-42 L/22 seasons for a 63% go against conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Detroit Tigers to win on the ML

Elieser Hernandez  of the Marlins  is making his fourth start since joining the rotation,   He's pitched better than the results show, striking out 19 and walking four with a 1.18 WHIP in 18 2/3 innings this season. Meanwhile,Vince Velasquez the Phillies starter allowed one run and one hit in five innings Saturday against the Marlins, and his performance secured another shot to remain in the rotation. Velasquez is 4-2 with 2.90 ERA in 12 career starts against the Marlins. This year he is 0-0 with a 1.64 ERA in two starts against Miami. Current Marlins are just 19-for-125 (.164) with three homers and 34 strikeouts against Velasquez.

VELASQUEZ is 11-2 UNDER vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

.Im betting on both these starting pitchers going long and strong tonight in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the total. 

Under is 12-2 in Phillies last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400

Under is 12-2 in Phillies last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400Under is 5-2 in Marlins last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 3-0-1 in Hernandezs last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-0 in Hernandezs last 4 starts vs. National League East.

Play UNDER

DANNY DUFFY (L) vs. SEAN REID-FOLEY (R)

This young Jays offence has really been generating alot of offence of late (6.3 rpg on a .298 BA in 7 games) and have looked good overall as is evident by winning two of three from the Boston Red Sox before dropping three close games in New York, including an 8-7 loss Wednesday. Im betting the Jays have an edge here today vs a KC team that iss ending Danny Duffy to the hill.Duffy is 2-3 with a 4.86 ERA in seven career appearances against the Blue Jays.  TORONTO is also 10-5  against the money line vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season. 

Blue

KANSAS CITY is 11-24  against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TORONTO) - with a team slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season (AL), after 2 straight one run losses are 71-39 L/22 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Toronto Blue Jays to win on the ML

The Giants are 5-1 in Beedes L/5 starts and they  have won each of his last three outings and he gets my support here again. Meanwhile, the Dbacks starter Young was the D-backs’ second-round pick in the 2015 MLB Draft, and he will be making his Major League debut. The lefty went 2-3 with a 5.79 ERA in his eight starts for Triple-A Reno. Im betting hes not quite ready for the bigs, but the DBacks management figured the light hitting Giants would be a good opportunity to show his stuff at the MLB level. With that said, I still expect SFs batting order to do some damage here and get the win.

RIZONA is 14-25  against the money line against division opponents this season.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ARIZONA) - good offensive team (4.7 or more  runs/game) against a poor starting pitcher (ERA 5.70 or better) (NL), with a slugging percentage of .350 or worse over their last 5 games are 12-40 L/22 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on SF Giants to win on the ML

Rangers RH Ariel Jurado (4-3, 4.44 ERA) vs. Tigers RH Spencer Turnbull (3-7, 3.29)

Jurado the Rangers hurler today owns a a  7.29 ERA in 4 June starts  and in 21 innings during that span opponents are hitting .280 on the season. In his career he owns a 5.61 ERA in 15 starts. Even though the Tigers are struggling I like their chances here today vs a hurler that is downtrending. 

MLB Road teams (TEXAS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (AL), good power team - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game on the season are 33-72 L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Detroit Tigers to win on the ML

The Rays won 10 of Morton's first 14 starts, during which he went 8-0 with a 2.10 ERA. But Tampa Bay has lost each of his last two starts, butIm betting on a bounce bak effort from a very under rated hurler.Morton, the American League ERA leader at 2.31, is throwing his curve more than any other pitch and holding opponents to a .118 batting average with it. Minnesota is an explosive team that can hit top tier fire ballers, but they have shown some struggles  against hurlers like Morton. I know the Rays have struggled of late, and that they will go against a tough pitcher in Odoirizzi but according to my power rankings matchup well here from a value perspective on this line. 

Rays are 5-0 in Mortons last 5 starts vs. American League Central.Rays are 7-2 in Mortons last 9 road starts.

MLB Home teams (MINNESOTA) - with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.000 the last 5 games are 164-222 L/5 seasons for a go against 58% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the TB Rays to win on the ML

Nationals LH Patrick Corbin (6-5, 3.90 ERA) vs. Marlins RH Zac Gallen (0-0, 1.80)

Gallen allowed one run over five innings with six strikeouts in his Major League debut Thursday in St. Louis. The 23-year-old settled for a no-decision, and will now have the momentum and confidence to get his first win here vs the Washington Nationals. Note"  Gallen at Triple-A New Orleans, garnered a powerful 9-1 record and 1.77 ERA in 14 starts before he was promoted .Meanwhile, Corbin had a strong effort last time out, but previous to that has  been beaten up on in his previous three trips to hilll, giving up 20 runs and 22 hits over 12 2/3 innings of sub par work, and could easily return to those negative output vs a up trending Miami team that is very under valued on this this line.Nationals are 0-4 in Corbins last 4 road starts. CORBIN is 2-11  against the money line in road games vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)  CORBIN is 6-14 against the money line as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Home team is 13-3 in Dreckmans last 16 games behind home plate.

WASHINGTON is 11-22 against the money line in road games after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 6.50 or worse over the last 2 seasons and is 7-18  against the money line after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs this season.  

MLB Home teams (MIAMI) - very bad NL offensive team (3.5 or less runs/game) against a team with a below avg. bullpen (ERA 4.50 or more ), with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season are 83-41 for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Miami Marlins to win on the ML

 Blue Jays RH Trent Thornton (2-5, 4.25 ERA) vs. Yankees LH James Paxton (5-3, 3.75)

James Paxton the Yankees stater  has won back-to-back starts, combining to permit three runs and 13 hits over 11 innings (2.45 ERA). He has walked four against 14 strikeouts in those outings. His current form and the fact they he is backed by one of baseballs most explosive offences averaging 5.7 rpg vs righties like the Jays starter Thornton makes this a viable runline option this afternoon favoring the Yankees.

Note: The Jays offence has struggled in day games this season averaging just 3.1 rpg, while the Yankees offence has averaged 6.5 rpg in day tilts.

MLB Road underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line +110 to +155) (TORONTO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL), terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season are 13-35 L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Yankees on the RL -1.5

Rays LH Blake Snell (4-6, 4.40 ERA) vs. Twins RH Kyle Gibson (7-4, 4.18)

Snell  the Rays starter tonight vs Minnesota is coming off the shortest start of his career. He lasted one-third of an inning Wednesday against the Yankees and allowed six runs. He has allowed at least six runs in three of his last 10 starts and is fade material here in this spot vs a Minnesota team that owns the most prolific offence in MLB at 5.7 runs per tilt  which includes a major league leading  147 home runs. Note: 

Twins are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.Rays are 2-5 in Snells last 7 road starts.Rays are 0-4 in Snells last 4 starts vs. American League Central.

Rays are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.

Tampa Bay is winless in four straight series (0-2-2) and are not playing consistent baseball at the moment despite of a fast start and overall are 4-9 L/13 overall. 

Play on the Minnesota Twins to win on the ML

 Pomeranz the giants starter despite of some recent down efforts is still a viable hurler and is  2-0 along  with a 1.89 ERA in five career games (three starts) vs. the Rockies and according to my power rankings still matches up well vs the Rockies batting order. POMERANZ is 9-3  against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record)

Meanwhile, Gray the Rockies starter ,  started six games in his career in San Francisco, going 0-3 with a 4.55 ERA  and is 0-3 with a 5.18 ERA in seven lifetime starts against the Giants. GRAY is 5-19 against the money line in road games with a team slugging percentage .390 or worse on the season (NL) in his career. (Team's Record) 

Giants are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Giants are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Rockies are 3-8 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing recordRockies are 2-5 in Grays last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Play on the SF Giants to win on the ML

Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (7-1, 2.85 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks RH Zack Greinke (8-3, 2.91)

 Greinke the DBacks starter has revenge on board for being smacked around for seven runs - four homers - over 3 2/3 innings versus the Dodgers in his season debut and now today here in the rematch we see him at his best. Meanwhile, Kershaw the Dodgers ace remains in good form, but has had some difficulties as a visitor here , as is evident by garnering a sub par  6-8 record along with a 3.70 ERA in 15 starts at Chase Field.

There is substantial value here with the home underdog in a game that is closer to a coin flip than the moneyline might suggest.

Diamondbacks are 6-1 in Greinkes last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

MLB Home teams (ARIZONA) - very good offensive team (5.0 or more runs/game) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA 3.00 or better ) (NL), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 3.00 over his last 10 games are 35-10 L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Arizona DBacks to win on the ML

Matz struggled against the Braves in his last outing, allowing five or more runs for the third time this season. He failed to reach the sixth inning for the first time in his last six outings and my projections today suggest the the Phillies will score 6+ runs which makes this total vulnerable based on the Phillies output alone. Matz is 1-3 with a 5.02 ERA in seven starts against the Phillies. Meanwhile, Eflin the Phillies starter is 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA in eight career starts against the Mets, and I look for the Mets to enough damage to help us breach this number to the upside . 

Mets are 10-2-1 OVER L/13. 

Over is 4-0-1 in Mets last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 6-0-2 in Mets last 8 games following a loss.Over is 3-0-1 in Mets last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 5-1 in Mets last 6 vs. National League East.Over is 5-1-2 in Mets last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 9-3-1 in Mets last 13 overall.Over is 9-3-1 in Mets last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 6-2-1 in Mets last 9 road games.Over is 9-3-1 in Mets last 13 on grass.Over is 9-3-1 in Mets last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 8-3-1 in Mets last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 18-7-4 in Mets last 29 during game 1 of a series.

Play OVER 

Astros RH Justin Verlander (9-3, 2.59 ERA) vs. Yankees LH J.A. Happ (7-3, 4.59)

Verlander the Astros starter is a stopper and  is 4-0 with a 1.25 ERA in his last six starts against New York. Im betting on him putting the current Astros losing streak to and end here today in NY. 

HOUSTON is 34-11 against the money line in road games against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons ( Happ the Yanks starter is a southpaw)

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (HOUSTON) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  0.800 or less over his last 3 starts are 65-34 L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Houston Astros to win on the ML

Mike Soroka...RHP.....(8-1, 2.12 ERA, 62 SO)
Soroka th Braves starter may have allowed more than one earned run in both of his last two starts, but he’s only done that a total of three times this season and is a strong All-Star candidate and my choice to back here this afternoon vs the Washington Nationals. Braves are 10-0 in Sorokas last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record and are 6-0 in Sorokas last 6 starts vs. National League East and are 5-0 in his last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.

Meanwhile, the The Nationals starter today Voth is up from Triple-A Fresno to make his 2019 major-league season debut, where he went 3-5 with a 4.40 ERA with 68 strikeouts in 61 1/3 innings in 12 starts. Im betting he will have has hands full here vs the Braves batting order and is fade material. 

ATLANTA is 27-19 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Atlanta Braves to win on the ML

These teams took part in a low scoring 2-0 affair yesterday, but Im betting on a much higher scoring game here this afternoon with Plesac and Norris on the hill for the Tribe and Tigers respectively. Both of these hurlers according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings does not matchup well , which Im betting results in a higher scoring affair.

Over is 8-2 in Norris' last 10 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Over is 3-1-2 in Tigers last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Over is 3-1-1 in Tigers last 5 road games.Over is 6-2-1 in Tigers last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter. 

Over is 11-3-1 in Norris' last 15 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Over is 20-9-4 in Indians last 33 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Over is 4-0 in Johnsons last 4 Sunday games behind home plate vs. Cleveland.Over is 4-0 in Norris' last 4 starts with Johnson behind home plate. Over is 13-3 in Johnsons last 16 games behind home plate vs. Cleveland.

The Tigers are 8-0 OVER in franchise history as a road dog with Daniel Norris when he went six-plus innings in his last start, going over by an average of 5.45 runs per game.

Play on the OVER 

Miley the Astros start has allowed three or fewer runs in 14 of his 15 starts this year and must not be underestimated in his ability to give the Astros a quality start here vs the Yankees tonight. I know Tanaka the Yankees starter is off a brilliant effort, but in the past this has not been a recipe for success as his team is just is 1-6  against the money line after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing this season. (Team's Record) Tanaka is also just 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in six career starts against Houston.

I know both these teams are operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum, with the Astros on a 6 game losing streak and the Yanks on 7 game win streak. However, it must be noted that despite of recent woes the Astros are still hitting well, just not getting runners home that are in scoring position, something that wont last. 

MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (NY YANKEES) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less ) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA 3.75 or less), with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.000 or better over his last 3 starts are just  78-96 L/5 seasons.

Play on the Houston Astros to win on the ML

Chacin came off the injured list Monday and allowed two runs in 4 2/3 innings in a loss at San Diego. He was a bit wild early and threw 102 pitches, but he found the feel of his out pitch and recorded seven strikeouts on sliders and now looks to have momentum and strength to go deeper here and produce a quality start for the Brewers. Meanwhile, Red Starter Castillo's worst start of the season happened at  Miller Park on May 22 and the lasting impression on that could be still riding in the back of his mind entering this tilt. In that game he  only 2 2/3 innings during an 11-9 Reds loss where he earned a no-decison, the ace gave up four runs on five hits (including two homers) with three walks.Castillo is 0-1 with a 4.66 ERA in two starts this season against the division rivals and 2-2 with a 3.50 ERA in six career starts against them overall. 

I know these teams are operating at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum at the moment with the Reds on a 6 game winning streak and the Brewers on a 5 game losing streak, but all good and bad runs must eventually come to end, and now today Im betting on those recent biases being busted in this spot play.

 COUNSELL is 16-0  against the money line revenging 2 straight losses vs opponent as a home favorite as the manager of MILWAUKEE.

 MILWAUKEE is 15-1 against the money line after allowing 7 runs or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons and is 19-3 against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (MILWAUKEE) - allowing 5.0 or more runs/game on the season (NL) against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts are 40-17 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win on the ML

Angels RH Griffin Canning (2-3, 3.93 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Michael Wacha (4-3, 6.00)

I not always a big proponent of backing rookie hurlers like Canning, but there are occasions where I see enough value on the line to get down on an inexperienced hurler. Note: Canning has owned left-handed hitters and held them to a  .163 average and did well in his only career interleague start, holding the Los Angeles Dodgers to three runs over six innings in a no-decision on June 10.

Cards pitcher Wacha has made two starts since returning from a bullpen , and the results were quite contrasting. After throwing six shutout innings against Miami, Wacha was knocked for six runs (five earned) in a four-inning start versus the Mets last week and against a hard hitting Halos team very much looks like fade material. After all Wacha went to the bullpen for a reason that is not positive in the first place, and just does not seem right at the moment. The right hander has garnered a 8.23 ERA in 4 home starts. WACHA is 2-8 against the money line in home games in an inter-league game in his career. (Team's Record)

Angels are 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a right-handed starterCardinals are 2-5 in Wachas last 7 interleague starts.

Play on the LA Angels to win on the ML

The NYM send left-handed Vargas (3-3, 3.74 ERA) to the hill against the right-handed Cubs pitcher  Darvish (2-3, 4.65 ERA)  in the second game of a four-game series. Both these pitchers have been inconsistent, but what makes this total vulnerable, is the Mets bullpen and the Cubs sometimes explosive offence. Note: Entering Thursday the Mets owned  the 11th-worst ERA in the majors (4.67) and the third-worst bullpen ERA (5.38).

 6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons here in Chicago. 

Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 games following a loss.Over is 3-0-1 in Mets last 4 during game 2 of a series.Over is 8-1-1 in Mets last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 7-1-1 in Mets last 9 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 7-1 in Mets last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 5-1 in Mets last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 5-1 in Mets last 6 road games.Over is 5-1-1 in Mets last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 8-2 in Mets last 10 overall.Over is 8-2 in Mets last 10 on grass.Over is 4-1-1 in Mets last 6 Friday games.Over is 4-1 in Mets last 5 vs. National League Central.Over is 7-2 in Mets last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.

Play OVER 

Montas  the As starter tonight vs TB continues to strengthen his case for a spot on the AL All-Star team with each start. The A's are 10-4 in games he's taken the mound, and he has allowed 3 ER or fewer in 13 of his 14 starts and gets my support here tonight. MONTAS is 12-3 (+9.6 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

Meanwhile, Charlie Morton despite of a good record, is fade material here vs a batting order my power rankings suggest he does matchup well against.

OAKLAND is 7-0  against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season. TAMPA BAY is 4-10  against the money line vs. excellent power teams - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game this season. TAMPA BAY is 6-14  against the money line after a game where the bullpen threw 7 or more innings this season. 

Home teams (OAKLAND) - excellent power team - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game on the season against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  0.800 or better over his last 3 starts are 43-19 L/22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Oakland to win on the ML

Mets RH Walker Lockett (2018: 0-3, 9.60 ERA) vs. Cubs RH Tyler Chatwood (3-1, 3.60)

With Kyle Hendricks (right shoulder) out, Chatwood will get the call against the Mets. Chatwood made a spot start on April 21 and delivered six shutout innings against the D-backs. He has a 2.87 ERA in his past 15 games.NY METS are 1-11  against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season. Meanwhile, the Mets starter, Lockett will be called up to make his Mets debut Thursday against the Cubs and is fade material. He was beaten around in San Diego last season for 16 runs and 22 hits in just 15 innings.

Cubs are 5-0 in Chatwoods last 5 home starts.Cubs are 6-1 in Chatwoods last 7 starts.Mets are 1-9 in the last 10 meetings.Mets are 5-16 in their last 21 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Mets are 4-13 in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Mets are 6-20 in their last 26 road games.Mets are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. National League Central.Mets are 0-5 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season (NL), with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games are 43-9 L/22 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the ML

Astros LH Framber Valdez (3-2, 2.77 ERA) vs Yankees RH Chad Green (1-2, 7.54)

The Yankees are expected to use Chad Green (1-2, 7.54 ERA) as the opener for the sixth time and  owns a 3.52 ERA in five starts on the season, compared to a 9.60 mark in 17 games out of the bullpen. The RH goes against a Houston side ,that , has scored just seven runs during a four-game losing streak. Meanwhile, the Yankees are playing at the proverbial opposite end of the performance spectrum having won 5 straight games and are my choice here tonight.

Astros are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Yankees are 6-0 in Greens last 6 home starts.Astros are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in New York.

NY YANKEES are 27-9 against the money line in home games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game over the last 2 seasons.NY YANKEES are 41-17  against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season.NY YANKEES are 20-6 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. 

Play on the NY Yankees to win on the ML

   Rockies RH Jon Gray (6-5, 4.38 ERA) vs. Diamondbacks RH Zack Greinke (8-2, 2.65)

The Colorado Rockies were part of the highest-scoring four-game series in modern history over the weekend, but because of this we have a total that is inflated considering the pitching matchup. 

DBacks ace Zack Greinke (8-2, 2.65 ERA)  had a no-hitter through six innings in his last start against the Nats. He ended up allowing two hits in 7 2/3 innings. Greinke was only removed because of a one-hour, three-minute rain delay.Note: 

For his career, Greinke is 12-6 with a 3.71 ERA in 32 appearances (31 starts) against Colorado and Im betting is in top form here again today.  Meanwhile, Jon Gray according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings matches up well s the DBacks offence, and should limit their offence in this tilt, helping us stay on the low side of the total.

Under is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 on grass.Under is 4-1 in Rockies last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 8-2 in Rockies last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-0-1 in Rockies last 5 road games.Under is 5-0 in Diamondbacks last 5 home games.Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 vs. National League West.Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 4-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 games following a loss.Under is 3-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 6-2 in Diamondbacks last 8 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 6-2 in Diamondbacks last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.

 MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (ARIZONA) - revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 96-39 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Left-hander Matt Strahm (2-6, 4.66 ERA) will start for the Padres against Milwaukee right-hander Zach Davies (7-1, 2.60).Davies has allowed 28 runs (23 earned) on 78 hits and 22 walks with 50 strikeouts in 79 2/3 innings this year. He has a 1.26 WHIP and a .262 opponents' batting average. Under is 4-0 in Davies' last 4 starts vs. Padres.

Meanwhile, the Fathers starter after a fast start has struggled with sore ribs, but is now close to 100% and has a high probability of returning to quality work, which Im helping keep this score on the low side of the total.

DAVIES is 10-1 UNDER vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. (Team's Record)  with a combined average of 6.7 rpg scored.DAVIES is 10-1 UNDER  when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.9 rpg. 

Under is 15-5-1 in Brewers last 21 games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 16-7-3 in Brewers last 26 vs. National League West.Under is 3-0-1 in Davies' last 4 starts vs. National League West.Under is 8-1-1 in Davies' last 10 starts during game 3 of a series.Under is 5-1 in Davies' last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.Under is 5-1-1 in Davies' last 7 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Davies' last 5 Wednesday starts.Under is 16-5-1 in Davies' last 22 road starts.Under is 15-5-1 in Davies' last 21 starts with 4 days of rest.Under is 8-3 in Davies' last 11 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 34-15-3 in Davies' last 52 starts overall.Under is 33-15-3 in Davies' last 51 starts on grass.Under is 20-6-1 in Brewers last 27 during game 3 of a series.Under is 8-2-1 in Brewers last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter. 

 Under is 3-0-1 in Padres last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 4-0-1 in Padres last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-0-1 in Padres last 5 home games. Under is 3-1-1 in Padres last 5 games following a win.Under is 20-7 in Padres last 27 Wednesday games.Under is 8-3 in Padres last 11 vs. National League Central. Under is 6-1 in Strahms last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 5-1 in Strahms last 6 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.Under is 5-1-1 in Strahms last 7 starts during game 3 of a series.Under is 3-1-2 in Strahms last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 3-1-1 in Strahms last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 11-4-2 in Strahms last 17 starts on grass.Under is 11-4-2 in Strahms last 17 starts overall.Under is 5-2-1 in Strahms last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.Under is 7-3 in Strahms last 10 starts following a team loss in their previous game.

Play UNDER 

Rays LH Blake Snell (4-5, 3.70 ERA) vs. Yankees LH CC Sabathia (3-4, 4.42)

Snell TBs starter is not in the same form he was last season and  already has five losses, matching his total from his 2018 AL Cy Young Award season. He is 1-2 with a 3.79 ERA in his past seven starts, even though he has allowed two runs or fewer five times in that span. He is not getting run support, and or timely hitting from his offence which is a unexplained trend that has hampered many pitchers in the past, and must be considered pertinent in this spot play. Note: Snell is 3-5 with a 3.97 ERA in 13 career starts against the Yankees. He is 1-4 with a 4.97 ERA in nine starts in the Bronx. Meanwhile,CC Sabathia (3-4, 4.42 ERA) will make his fourth attempt at getting his 250th win for the Yankees. He has struggled a bit of late, but the veteran is more than capable of righting his ship. 

Yankees are 5-1 in Sabathias last 6 home starts vs. Rays.Rays are 7-21 in the last 28 meetings in New York.Rays are 2-7 in Snells last 9 road starts vs. Yankees.Rays are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings.The Rays are struggling of late losing 6 of their L/8 while the Yankees have now won 4 straight and have momentum on their sides, making them my play on team in this matchup.

NY YANKEES are 19-7  against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season.NY YANKEES are 13-3  against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.NY YANKEES are 40-17  against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game this season. BOONE is 37-15  against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record as the manager of NY YANKEES. 

TAMPA BAY is 9-14  against the money line after a game where the bullpen threw 6 or more innings this season.

Rays are 27-57 in their last 84 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Play on the NY Yankees to win on the ML

Brewers RH Brandon Woodruff (8-1, 3.87 ERA) vs. Padres LH Logan Allen (NR)

Brandon Woodruff the Brewers starter owns a 8-1 record along with a stable, 3.87 ERA, 96 SO. The up trending righty has quality starts in six of his last seven outings, including a duel with Astros ace Justin Verlander last time out in Houston. Woodruff has a 2.95 ERA over his last nine starts. Im betting he once again shows his metal by holding the Padres offence to limited production and helps us keep this total on the low side of the number. His pitching opponent, LHP Allen struggled a bit at the beginning of his minor league outing has improved of late, and gives the Brewers a look they have not seen which will equate to them getting limited offensive production as well. Note:

Under is 14-3-1 in Brewers last 18 games vs. a left-handed starter.

Play UNDER

BRANDON WOODRUFF (R) vs. LOGAN ALLEN (L)

(Brandon Woodruff-RHP-8-1, 3.87 ERA, 96 SO) The up trending pitcher Woodruff has quality starts in six of his last seven outings, including a duel with Astros ace Justin Verlander last time out in Houston. Woodruff has a 2.95 ERA over his last nine starts and gets my support to win on the ML tonight vs the Fathers. WOODRUFF is 10-1 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record)  WOODRUFF is 10-1 against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

MLB Home teams (SAN DIEGO) - with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (NL), with an on base percentage of .375 or better over their last 5 games are 19-42 L/5 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers to win on the ML

Yamamoto pitched seven scoreless innings in his Major League debut against the Cardinals on Wednesday. After being called up from Double-A Jacksonville, the 23-year-old scattered three hits and struck out five in the 9-0 win. Im betting this kid is on his game again and holds the Cardinals to limited offensive production in this spot. MeanwhileYamamoto (1-0, 0.00 ERA) will be opposed by Cardinals right-hander Jack Flaherty (4-3, 4.28 ERA) who finished 5th in national league rookie of the year voting last season. The kid has not been in top form, but according to my pitching vs batting order power rankings does matchup well vs this Marlins batting order. ( Miami has averaged just 3.3 rpg vs RHP this season)

Under is 5-1 in Flahertys last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 7-3 in Cardinals last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Under is 10-4 in Marlins last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings.

Cardinals are 11-1 in their last 12 games with umpire Tichenor behind home plate.Under is 7-2 in Tichenors last 9 games behind home plate.

Play UNDER 

Orioles RH Andrew Cashner (6-2, 4.73 ERA) vs. Athletics RH Mike Fiers (6-3, 4.63)

Fiers has garnered a  3.02 ERA over his past nine starts. He's 3-1 with a 2.08 ERA in four career starts against Baltimore. Meanwhile, , the Orioles are confident Cashner can pitch through a blister on his right middle finger that has bothered him for more than a week and forced the right-hander to miss his scheduled start on Thursday. Cashner is 6-2 with a 4.73 ERA this season. Im betting on both these under rated hurlers going long and strong and helping this combined score stay on the low side of the total. 

Oakland is averaging 4.1 rpg at home this season, while Baltimore is averaging 4 rpg home and away overall this season. The average score of Oakland games at home this season click in at 8.2 rpg. 

BALTIMORE is 25-9 UNDER with a tired bullpen - after 3 straight games throwing 4+ innings over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 8.3 rpg scored.

MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (BALTIMORE) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season (AL), with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games 74-34 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

RICK PORCELLO (R) vs. JOSE BERRIOS (R)

Off 6 2/3 innings of two-run ball against the Rangers, Red Sox starter Porcello takes a 3.83 ERA in 31 career starts against the Twins to Minnesota on Monday. He's looking for season win No. 5 and to continue improving after a rough start to the year. Meanwhile, Twins starter Berrios has never defeated the Red Sox. He is 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA in three career outings vs the Beantown crew.Berrios has never defeated the Red Sox. Berrios has experienced issues with J.D. Martinez (4-for-11), Andrew Benintendi (3-for-7) and Mookie Betts (3-for-9) and despite his top tier record is fade material here tonight. 

BOSTON is 14-7  against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons.

MLB team (MINNESOTA) - excellent offensive team - scoring 5.9 or more runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP  1.100 or less over his last 10 games are 15-35 L/22 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.  

Play on the Boston Red Sox to win on the ML

"Ryu the Dodgers starter would have been the first MLB pitcher to 10 wins if the bullpen did blow it  for him up in Anaheim Monday night. He wasn’t happy with his change-up that night and allowed a homer to Kole Calhoun, but he still isn’t walking anybody and looks the most consistent that he has in his career and deserves our respect and backing here tonight on a value based run line. Meanwhile, the The Cubs will fire back in the series finale with their own left-hander  Jose Quintana (4-6, 3.89). the southpaw gave up four runs in just 4 2/3 innings in a  loss at Colorado on Tuesday, and is 0-3 over his last four starts with a 5.48 ERA and fade material in his current form. The playoffs  Quintana started against Los Angeles twice in the 2018 NLCS, posting a 10.29 ERA as Chicago lost both games.

Note:The Dodgers have won 5 straight in the last game of a home series when they are off a contest in which they led and left fewer than ten men on base, outscoring their opponent shutting their opponent out all 5 times, with the average margin of victory coming 7.2 rpg game.

LA DODGERS are 22-4 SU line in home games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game this season winning by an average 2.2 rpg.ROBERTS is 38-8  against the money line in home games when playing on Sunday as the manager of LA DODGERS winning by an average of 2.3 rpg.

MLB team (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs are 93-142 L/5 seasons for a go against  61% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Dodgers on the ML

Atlantas starter Foltynewicz (1-5, 6.02 ERA)  goes to hill in the midst of his inconsistent season.Over his last three starts, Foltynewicz has given up 12 runs in 16 innings, along with five home runs. He has been touched for 15 homers this season, only two fewer than he gave up in 31 starts in 2018 and is fade material here today no matter who starts for the Phillies. Note:The Braves are 0-7 on the ML with Mike Foltynewicz when their starter went fewer than six innings in each of their last two games.

Braves are 8-22 in Foltynewiczs last 30 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Braves are 5-16 in Foltynewiczs last 21 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Braves are 3-11 in Foltynewiczs last 14 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Braves are 2-9 in Foltynewiczs last 11 starts.Braves are 2-9 in Foltynewiczs last 11 starts on grass.Braves are 1-5 in Foltynewiczs last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.Braves are 1-5 in Foltynewiczs last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Braves are 1-6 in Foltynewiczs last 7 home starts.

Phillies are 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Phillies are 7-2 in their last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Phillies are 26-8 in their last 34 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Phillies are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. National League East.Phillies are 8-3 in their last 11 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Phillies are 32-72 in their last 104 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Phillies are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.

Play on the Philadelphia Phillies to win on the ML

Trevor Bauer is a top tier hurler but he has struggled for most of this season, and despite of a decent effort last time out, he still threw 119 pitches, which will effect his freshness here today against what can sometimes be a under rated  Motown offence.Bauer had an 0-5 record and 5.52 ERA during a seven-start stretch.Bauers strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up and he is being over rated on this moneyline. Detroit beat Bauer on April 10 this season, handing him a loss while collecting four runs and 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings. Meanwhile,Spencer Turnbull has been very effective for the Tigers this season, and is off throwing six scoreless innings on Tuesday in Kansas City, and received a no-decision.

CLEVELAND is 3-19  against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.90 or better over the last 2 seasons

MLB Road favorites with a money line of -125 or more (CLEVELAND) - team with a poor OBP (.320 or less) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.300 or less) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start are 19-38 L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Detroit Tigers to win on the ML

Phillies RH Aaron Nola (6-1, 4.58 ERA) vs. Braves LH Sean Newcomb (1-0, 2.59)

Nola the Phillies starter is 4-0 with a 2.73 ERA in his last six starts while averaging 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings and giving up 31 hits in 33 innings  of top tier work.Nola is 8-3 with a 2.05 ERA in 13 career starts against Atlanta. He has more wins against the Braves than any other club and gets my support in this spot. 

Braves are 5-11 in their starters Newcombs last 16 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Braves are 1-4 in Newcombs last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.Braves are 1-5 in Newcombs last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Braves are 0-4 in Newcombs last 4 starts during game 2 of a series. 

PHILADELPHIA is 12-1  against the money line after scoring and allowing 8 runs or more in a game over the last 3 seasons which was the case yesterday in a 9-8 loss to the Braves. 

Play on Philadelphia to win on the ML

After earning back his spot in the starting rotation, Wacha threw six scoreless innings against the Marlins on Monday in the Cardinals' 4-1 win. He gave up five hits while walking two and striking out four and is now getting his confidence back and has momentum entering this tilt vs the NY Mets. I know Mets starter Syndergaard  had a top tier start last time out, but in his his three previous starts, he produced a 6.00 ERA , with inconsistency being his key problem. 

Wacha is 5-2 with a 2.53 ERA in seven career starts against the Mets. Syndergaard is 1-3 with a 3.73 ERA in five starts against the Cardinals. 

NY METS are 4-11  against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with poor control (more than 2.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons. 

ST LOUIS is 10-2  against the money line vs. a team with a terrible bullpen whose ERA is 5.20 or worse this season. 

Mets are 2-5 in Syndergaards last 7 starts vs. National League Central.Mets are 2-7 in Syndergaards last 9 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Mets are 1-4 in Syndergaards last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.Mets are 1-4 in Syndergaards last 5 starts.Mets are 1-4 in Syndergaards last 5 starts on grass.Mets are 1-8 in Syndergaards last 9 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Cardinals are 20-6 in Wachas last 26 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.Cardinals are 11-4 in Wachas last 15 starts vs. National League East.Cardinals are 35-16 in Wachas last 51 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Cardinals are 4-1 in Wachas last 5 starts vs. Mets.Mets are 1-4 in Syndergaards last 5 starts vs. Cardinals.

Play on the St.Louis Cardinals to win on ML

Astros will send  left-hander Framber Valdez (2-2, 2.73 ERA) to the hill. He hd a quality outing last time  in his previous start, allowing one run on five hits with seven strikeouts over seven innings Valdez, who made his big-league debut Aug. 21, 2018, went 4-1 as a rookie and is 6-1 with a 2.30 ERA over six career starts for Houston. Meanwhile,Left-hander Clayton Richard (0-2, 7.04 ERA) will start for the Blue Jays in the middle game of the series. 

HOUSTON is 20-6 SU vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season with the average margin of victory coming by 2.4 rpg. TORONTO is 7-20 against the money line after a 3 game span where the bullpen threw 13 total innings or more this season with the average run differential clicking in at 2.7 rpg. 

MLB Road teams (TORONTO) - ice cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games, after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs are 12-37 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Houston Astros to win on the RL

.

 Cubs RH Kyle Hendricks (7-4, 3.00 ERA) vs. Dodgers LH Rich Hill (3-1, 2.50)

Hendricks the Cubs starter has been very good over his last three starts, posting a 2.05 ERA with 20 strikeouts and only two walks over that span and gets my support here tonight. 

CHICAGO CUBS are 15-6  against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season. 

CubsMADDON is 91-64  against the money line when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  62% or better) in all games he has managed .

Cubs are 10-1 in Hendricks' last 11 starts with 4 days of rest.Cubs are 14-2 in Hendricks' last 16 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Cubs are 4-1 in Hendricks' last 5 starts vs. National League West.Cubs are 4-1 in Hendricks' last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Cubs are 4-1 in Hendricks' last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Cubs are 6-2 in Hendricks' last 8 Friday starts.Cubs are 20-8 in Hendricks' last 28 starts.Cubs are 20-8 in Hendricks' last 28 starts on grass.Cubs are 7-3 in Hendricks' last 10 road starts.

MLB Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) - with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season (NL) are 38-13 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Cubs to win on the ML

Mariners LH Marco Gonzalez (6-6, 4.77 ERA) vs. Athletics RH Chris Bassitt (3-2, 3.57)

Gonzales snapped a personal six-game losing streak his last time out with a strong start vs. the Angels, allowing 2 hits and 2 runs in 5 2/3 innings. He last faced the A's on March 20, Opening Day in Tokyo, earning the win with 6 effective innings and gets my support here with momentum on his side.Gonzales is 2-1 with a 3.91 ERA in five career appearances against Oakland, including four starts; Bassitt his As pitching opponent  is 0-2 with a 3.33 ERA against Seattle in five games with four starts.

Mariners are 4-0 in Gonzales' last 4 starts during game 1 of a series. 

Mariners are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.

MLB Home favorites with a money line of -150 or more (OAKLAND) - excellent power team - averaging 1.5 or more HR's/game on the season are 59-86 L/5 seasons for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Seattle Mariners to win on the ML

Mahle the Reds starter was doing well during much of Friday's 4-2 loss to the Phillies. But he threw a curveball that Jay Bruce slugged for a critical two-run homer.  He has been stable for a while, and could easily give us a quality start here. He has pitched is best at home at Great American Ball Park, garnering a 2-0 record and 2.25 ERA in three starts. .Mahle is also 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA in five Interleague starts in his career. Texas will go to their bullpen, but because of a lack of turns against this AL pitching staff could have problems generating offence. 

CINCINNATI is 11-3 UNDER  vs. a team with a bad bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worse this season with a combined average of 6.5 rpg. CINCINNATI is 21-7 UNDER  vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse this season with a combined average of 6.9 rpg. CINCINNATI is 25-8 UNDER  vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 or less errors/game this season with a combined score of 7 rpg scored. 

Play UNDER 

Yankees LH J.A. Happ (6-3, 4.48 ERA) vs. White Sox RH Ivan Nova (3-5, 6.28)

Through two June starts,Ivan Nova the Pale Hose veteran right-hander has allowed seven earned runs on 12 hits in 12 1/3 innings. Nova is allowing opponents to hit .333 and is 0-3 with a 9.39 ERA in five home starts this season. Meanwhile,  AJ Happ despite of being a solid workhorse, according to my matchup power rankings does matchup well vs the White Sox lineup. Note: When Happ faced the Southsiders on April 12,  he was beaten around  for six runs on nine hits - one homer - in four innings to suffer the loss.Overall Happ is 4-3 with a 4.79 ERA in seven career starts against the White Sox. Im betting both these offences do some damage vs these starters and for this combined score to be eclipsed.

HAPP is 8-0 OVER against AL Central opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 12.3 rpg . HAPP is 9-1 OVER  after giving up 2 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)  with a combined average of 10.2 rpg. 

NY YANKEES are 18-4 OVER in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season with a combined average of 12.1 rpg scored.NY YANKEES are 9-0 OVER  in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.9 or more runs/game on the season this season . with a combined average of 13.6 rpg going on the board.NY YANKEES are 13-2 OVER  as a road favorite of -125 or more this season with a combined average of 12.6 rpg scored.

Play OVER

Cardinals RH Jack Flaherty (4-3, 4.08 ERA) vs. Mets RH Jacob deGrom (3-6, 3.45)

Cards starter Flaherty garnered a stable  3.45 ERA in five May starts, including a six-inning scoreless outing vs. Atlanta to end the month. He is off a down effort last time out, but is a solid bounce back candidate in this spot vs the NYM. Meanwhile,Mets starter  DeGrom despite of being a top tier hurler , has received two runs or fewer of support in five starts this season, and his team has not one any of his L/5 starts and is fade material here in this spot. . 

Mets are 2-5 in their last 7 games following a win.Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.Mets are 8-19 in deGroms last 27 home starts.Mets are 2-5 in deGroms last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Mets are 2-5 in deGroms last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Mets are 7-19 in deGroms last 26 starts following a team loss in their previous game.Mets are 2-9 in deGroms last 11 starts.Mets are 2-9 in deGroms last 11 starts on grass.Mets are 1-5 in deGroms last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.Mets are 1-5 in deGroms last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Mets are 1-5 in deGroms last 6 starts vs. National League Central.Mets are 0-6 in deGroms last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.

ST LOUIS is 28-12 against the money line after a 5 game span with an OBP of .285 or worse over the last 2 seasons. 

CALLAWAY is 17-29  against the money line against NL Central opponents as the manager of NY METS. 

 team (NY METS) - after 5 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games are 72-135 L/5 seasons for a go against 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the St.Louis Cards to win on the ML

Price the Red Sox starter, the 2012 Cy Young Award winner, is 4-1 with a 1.88 ERA over his last nine starts, and should be a stopper again tonight vs Texas. Meanwhile, Texas starter Sampson is 5-0 with a 1.99 ERA in his last five outings after tossing a complete game versus Oakland on Saturday. Im betting on both these starters going long and strong here tonight and to help keep this combined score on the low side of the total.

 PRICE is 32-13 UNDER as a home favorite of -200 or more since 1997. (Team's Record) with a combined average score of 7.9 rpg scored. 

 BOSTON is 10-2 UNDER in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season with a combined average of 7.5 rpg scored.TEXAS is 20-7 UNDER in road games in June games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 8.6 rpg scored. 

Under is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 vs. American League East.Under is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.Over is 8-3-1 in Rangers last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 10-4 in Rangers last 14 overall.Under is 10-4 in Rangers last 14 on a natural surface. 

Under is 8-1 in Red Sox last 9 vs. American League West.Under is 10-2 in Red Sox last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 7-1 in Prices last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 10-2-2 in Prices last 14 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1-1 in Prices last 6 starts during game 4 of a series.Under is 4-1 in Prices last 5 home starts.Under is 8-3-1 in Prices last 12 starts on a natural surface.Under is 14-6-2 in Prices last 22 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Under is 9-4-1 in Prices last 14 starts overall. 

Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Boston.Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

Play UNDER 

JOEY LUCCHESI (L) vs. SHAUN ANDERSON (R)

Anderson allowed three runs over six innings in his last start Thursday against the Mets. He has delivered a quality start in each of his last two outings for the Giants. He has garnered a 16-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his first five starts. Meanwhile, the Padres starting hurler Lucchesi finished the month of May with a 2.97 ERA and 28-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30 1/3 innings. He did allow 4 runs last time out, early , but shut the door after that and helped his team garner a win. Im expecting these two quality hurlers to help this combined score stay on the low side of the total. 

Under is 11-4-2 in Giants last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing record

Under is 4-1 in Padres last 5 vs. National League West.

Road teams (SAN DIEGO) - with an on base percentage of .260 or worse over their last 3 games, after a game where their bullpen blew a save are 97-51 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

COLE HAMELS (L) vs. ANTONIO SENZATELA (R)

Rockies starter today Senzatela out duelled the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner, Jacob deGrom last time out and has momentum and confidence entering this tilt vs the Chicago Cubs and gets my support in this spot play. SENZATELA is 17-9  against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)

Meanwhile, Cubs starter HAMELS is 3-11  against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Cubs are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Cubs are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Cubs are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Cubs are 1-6 in their last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Cubs are 0-5 in their last 5 road games.Cubs are 0-7 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter. 

Cubs are 10-21 in the last 31 meetings in Colorado.Cubs are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings

Rockies are 21-8 in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Rockies are 7-3 in their last 10 vs. National League Central.Rockies are 52-25 in their last 77 home games.Rockies are 5-1 in Senzatelas last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.Rockies are 6-2 in Senzatelas last 8 starts during game 3 of a series.Rockies are 5-2 in Senzatelas last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Rockies are 13-6 in Senzatelas last 19 home starts.

BLACK is 91-57  against the money line in home games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game as the manager of COLORADO. 

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (COLORADO) - good offensive team (4.7 or more  runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or better ) (NL), starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are 111-68 L/22 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Colorado to win on the ML

Reds RH Anthony DeSclafani (2-3, 4.70 ERA) vs. Indians RH Zach Plesac (1-1, 1.86)

Indians starter Plesac will Im betting continue his hot start to the year against the Reds. In three starts, the 24-year-old has garnrered a 1.86 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP. Last time out, he allowed two runs on six hits through seven frames, throwing a career-high 111 pitches. Meanwhile,Cincinnati has scored just 16 runs supporting DeSclafani and this trend is being factored into  my under wager here today. 

CINCINNATI is 13-4 UNDER in road games vs. a team with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities this season with a combined average of 6.6 rpg scored. 

CLEVELAND is 16-5 UNDER  vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season with a combined average of 7.1  rpg scored.

Under is 5-0 in Reds last 5 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-0 in Reds last 4 vs. American League Central.Under is 6-1 in Reds last 7 interleague games. Under is 21-6 in Reds last 27 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 23-7 in Reds last 30 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 21-7-1 in Reds last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 9-3-1 in Reds last 13 Wednesday games.Under is 20-7-1 in Reds last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 40-15-1 in Reds last 56 road games.Under is 21-8-1 in Reds last 30 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 18-7-1 in Reds last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Under is 18-7-2 in Reds last 27 during game 2 of a series. Under is 33-15-3 in Reds last 51 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 54-25-3 in Reds last 82 on grass.Under is 54-25-3 in Reds last 82 overall.Under is 34-16-1 in Reds last 51 games following a loss.Under is 3-0-1 in DeSclafanis last 4 Wednesday starts.

Under is 6-1 in Indians last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 6-1 in Indians last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 5-1 in Indians last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 interleague games.Under is 19-7 in Indians last 26 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 16-6 in Indians last 22 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 36-14-2 in Indians last 52 Wednesday games.Under is 7-3 in Indians last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 9-4 in Indians last 13 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 25-12-4 in Indians last 41 during game 2 of a series.

MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (CINCINNATI) - poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or less), in June games are 35-11 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (CINCINNATI) - ice cold hitting team - batting .200 or worse over their last 5 games against opponent with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games are 39-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

 JON DUPLANTIER (R) vs. JAKE ARRIETA (R)

Arrieta the Phillies starter is slumping as is evident by garnering a 1-3 record along  with a 5.45 ERA in his last six. He has allowed nine homers in 34 2/3 innings of sub par work. Thats not a good omen for the Phillies chances here, as the Dbacks have  28 homers in its last 11 games at Citizens Bank Park. 

 Meanwhile, the DBacks  starter Duplantier is making his third start of the season after pitching five innings in each of his first two outings. Last time out against the Dodgers, he struck out a career-high seven batters and is looking much more comfortable at the MLB level and showing important upward trajectory on a performance chart. 

Phillies are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

The Diamondbacks have won five in a row overall and 10 of their last 11 here in Philadelphia, and have huge momentum entering this tilt and deserve our backing on a value line.

ARIZONA is 10-1 against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) this season.

Diamondbacks are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Phillies are 0-4 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Play on the Arizona DBacks to win on the ML

Mets RH Zack Wheeler (5-3, 4.61 ERA) vs. Yankees RH Masahiro Tanaka (3-5, 3.42)

Tanaka will return from a brief paternity leave to make the start against the Mets. He's given up eight earned runs in his last 12 innings and looks vulnerable in his current form. Meanwhile, Mets starter Wheeler has yet to rediscover his second-half form from 2018. He’s  allowed three or four runs allowed in each of his last four starts, garnering a  4.13 ERA over that stretch. My own projections estimate he will give up at least 4 to 6+ runs today and for this total to be eclipsed.( NYY have averaged 5.6 rpg vs RHP)

Over is 9-4-1 in Yankees last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Over is 3-0-2 in Wheelers last 5 starts during game 1 of a series. Over is 6-2-3 in Wheelers last 11 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. 

Over is 5-1-1 in Mets last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New York.

Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.

 NY METS are 32-12 OVER  as a road underdog of +150 or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 11.1 rpg scored.

NY YANKEES are 11-3 OVER  after 4 or more consecutive road games this season with a combined average of 10.6 rpg.

Play OVER 

Charlie Morton the Rays starter owns a 7-0 record along with a , 2.30 ERA, and  91 SO this season.  Morton is a prime candidate to remain undefeated in his 14th start of the season. He has thrown 7.0 innings in each of his last two starts, including a scoreless outing against the Tigers on Wednesday in which he had eight strikeouts and zero walks. Meanwhile, the Rays, get to bat against a hurler that has spent most of his time on the minors .Anderson  in his 11 games for the Triple-A club garnered a  6.26 ERA and could easily get lit up today by a sometimes explosive and more importantly consistent offence. 

Play on Tampa Bay to win on the RL -1.5

WALKER BUEHLER (R) vs. MADISON BUMGARNER (L)

The Dodgers will send right-hander Walker Buehler (6-1, 3.69 ERA) to face San Francisco lefty Madison Bumgarner (3-5, 4.05).

Buehler is coming off an top tier quality performance Monday against Arizona, allowing just one run and two hits while striking out 11 in eight innings of a victory. He is 2-0 with a 4.38 ERA in four appearances (two starts) in his career against San Francisco. With momentum behind him I look for him to help his team to a victory this Sunday afternoon.

The Dodgers are 34-0 L/34 on the ML as a 145-plus favorite when their starter went at least eight innings in his last start, had a WHIP of less than one and stuck out more than five batters and it is not a series opener. (Walker Buehler qualifies)

MLB underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SAN FRANCISCO) - team with a poor OBP (.310 or less) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP 1.250 or less) -NL, with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities are 77-188 for go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Dodgers to win on the ML

 Orioles RH Dylan Bundy (3-6, 4.64 ERA) vs. Astros LH Wade Miley (5-3, 3.39)

Right-hander Dylan Bundy (3-6, 4.64 ERA) takes to the hill for Baltimore on Sunday. Bundy is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA over four career appearances (three starts) against the Astros. Meanwhile,Left-hander Wade Miley (5-3, 3.39 ERA) is the scheduled starter for the Astros in their series finale with Baltimore. Miley is 1-2 with a 6.98 ERA over four career starts against a team  he previously pitched for. Im betting on both teams do some damage offensively here this afternoon and for this total to be eclipsed. 

MLB Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (HOUSTON) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better on the season-AL, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 8.00 the last 5 games are 31-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

Milwaukee enters Sunday with eight wins in its last 12 games to improve to 37-28. Five of those wins are against the Pirates, whom they have scored 46 runs and hit 16 of their 112 homers against. In the  6 games the Pirates have played  vs Milwaukee  this season the pitching staff has garnered 7.23 ERA and once again suceptiable to being beat up on again with starter Brault on the hill. The southpaw is  1-0 with a 4.76 ERA as a starting pitcher this season and 3-4 with a 4.76 ERA in 20 career starts and does matchup well vs Brewers team averaging 4.8 rpg vs LHP this season. 

Anderson the Brewers starter today  is 8-4 with a 3.61 ERA in 15 career starts against the Pirates. He held Pittsburgh to two runs on six hits in five innings in Milwaukee's 11-5 win on May 30 and gets my support in this spot play on the runline.

PITTSBURGH is 1-11  against the money line revenging 4 or more straight losses vs opponent in last 2 years this season with the average loss coming by 4 rpg game.

Play on the Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 runline 

Rockies RH Jeff Hoffman (1-2, 7.29 ERA) vs. Mets RH Noah Syndergaard (3-4, 4.83)

Syndergaard (3-4, 4.83)  continues to give the Mets quality starts since the start of May but it has not translated into the win column for him and Im betting that trend continues here today vs the Colorado Rockies.SYNDERGAARD is 4-13 ( against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) 

Mets are 0-4 in Syndergaards last 4 starts.

COLORADO is 11-6  against the money line as an underdog of +175 to +250 over the last 2 seasons.CALLAWAY is 8-25  against the money line in June games as the manager of NY METS.

Rockies are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Rockies are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in New York.Rockies are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.

Play on the Colorado Rockies to win on the ML

Yankees RH Chad Green (1-2, 9.16 ERA) vs. Indians RH Shane Bieber (5-2, 3.57)

Bieber has surrendered five homers in his last two outings and 15 in 13 appearances this season and looks vulnerable entering this matchup vs the Yankees. I know Yankees starter Green many not inspire bettors with recent performances but the Yankees are 5-0 in Greens last 5 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance and are 4-0 in Greens last 4 starts. 

NY YANKEES are 10-0  against the money line after batting .225 or worse over a 5 game span this season. 

Play on the NY Yankees to win on the ML

CHRIS BASSITT (R) vs. ADRIAN SAMPSON (R) Game #2 Double Header

Sampson the Rangers starter has won four straight games, three of them in relief behind an opener, and has a 2.38 ERA in that stretch. He allowed one run in seven innings against the Royals on Sunday, allowing eight hits, no walks and striking out a career-high 11 SOs. Meanwhile, Bassitt  the As starter will go in  the second game of todays doubleheader. He has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of eight starts this season. Under is 7-2 in Bassitts last 9 starts during game 3 of a series.

 These hurlers Im betting go long enough here for this tilt to stay on the low side of the total.

Under is 5-1 in Athletics last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1 in Athletics last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

Under is 7-1 in Rangers last 8 overall.Under is 7-1 in Rangers last 8 on grass.Under is 12-2 in Rangers last 14 home games.Under is 5-1 in Rangers last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-1 in Rangers last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 19-7 in Rangers last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 11-5 in Rangers last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

TEXAS is 11-2 UNDER  in home games vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse this season.

OAKLAND is 20-9 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 2 seasons. 

MLB teams where the total is 10 or higher (TEXAS) - with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, playing on Saturday are 46-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Doubleheader Game #2

The BoSox lost the first game of Saturdays Doubelheader and I now look for them to bounce back behind David Price in the nightcap. 

The Red Sox are 18-0 L/18 on the ML with David Price at home and he went six-plus innings gave up three or fewer runs and fewer than three walks in his last start.

Play on the Boston Red Sox to win on the ML

JULIO TEHERAN (R) vs. TREVOR RICHARDS (R)

Miami's starting hurler Trevor Richards (3-5, 3.53 ERA)in his past three starts is 2-0 with a 1.02 ERA, striking out 19 and walking just four in 17 2/3 innings. Richards,  is holding opposing batters to a .216 average, and locked down the Braves by allowing just two hits in 4 1/3 scoreless innings in a no-decision May 4.

Meanwhile, Atlanta is getting alot respect here today because Teheran their starter has really has garnered a strong ERA of late, but if you really dig more deeply you can see he has not be necessarily been efficient as he's lasted just five innings in three of his past four starts.TEHERAN is 10-26 against the money line after giving up no earned runs last outing since 1997. (Team's Record) 

Miami had averaged 5.7 runs per game in their past 19 contests, and despite a couple consecutive droughts are poised to get back on track.

MLB Home teams (MIAMI) - excellent defensive catchers - allowing 0.35  or less SB's/game on the season, after two straight games where they had 5 or less hits are 47-20 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Miami Marlins to win on the ML

 Nationals RH Erick Fedde (1-0, 2.55 ERA) vs. Padres LH Nick Margevicius (2-6, 5.40)

Margevicius  the Fathers stater owns a 9.17 ERA in his last four outings, and despite of needing to get back on track, just does not have the weapons needed to so at this time. Im betting he gets banged around vs the Nationals, which will help this combined score over the total. WASHINGTON is 12-4 OVER  vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season with a combined average of 10.1 rpg.

Fedde the Nationals starter has seen the Over go 5-1 in his last 6 starts on a natural surface.Over is 5-1 in Feddes last 6 starts overall.

Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 6-0-1 in Padres last 7 overall.Over is 6-0-1 in Padres last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 7-0-1 in Padres last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 6-0-1 in Padres last 7 on grass.Over is 3-0-1 in Padres last 4 Friday games.Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 3-0-1 in Padres last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 6-0-1 in Padres last 7 home games.Over is 6-0-1 in Padres last 7 vs. National League East.Over is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 3-0-1 in Padres last 4 during game 2 of a series.Over is 5-1 in Padres last 6 games following a win.Over is 4-0 in Margevicius' last 4 starts on grass.Over is 4-0 in Margevicius' last 4 starts overall.Over is 5-0 in Margevicius' last 5 home starts.Over is 4-1 in Margevicius' last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.

SAN DIEGO is 11-1 OVER  when playing against a team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season with a combined average of 11.8 rpg. SAN DIEGO is 13-3 OVER  in home games in June games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 10.6 rpg.

The L/3 meetings in this series have gone over this season, with 11,9, and 13 combined runs scored.

Play on the OVER 

Margevicius  the Fathers stater owns a 9.17 ERA in his last four outings, and despite of needing to get back on track, just does not have the weapons needed to so at this time. Im betting he gets banged around vs the Nationals and is fade material here tonight on a value line. Note: Margevicius is 1-4 with a 7.09 ERA in six home starts this season . 

SAN DIEGO is 9-15  against the money line in home games in night games this season.

Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

Play on the Washington Nationals to win on the ML

BRETT ANDERSON (L) vs. LANCE LYNN (R)

Lynn is 5-2 with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in his last seven starts.He is 4-0 with a 3.96 ERA in his last four starts at Globe Life Park and had revenge on board for getting beat around by the As earlier this season. Im betting on him being in top form here tonight.

Athletics are 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Meanwhile, Anderson the AS starting pitcher, has battled some injuries recently and has a 3-4 record with a 4.82 ERA in 11 starts against the Rangers and is fade material in current less 100% healthy form. Note:  

Athletics are 1-5 in Andersons last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Athletics are 2-5 in Andersons last 7 starts vs. American League West.Athletics are 3-9 in Andersons last 12 road starts.

TEXAS is 9-2 against the money line in home games vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game this season.  TEXAS is 7-1  against the money line revenging a one run loss to opponent this season. (Oakland beat Texas 6-5 back in the Bay area in April of this season the last time these teams played)

MLB Road teams (OAKLAND) - poor hitting team (AVG .260 or less) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 4.70) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start are 62-92 L/5 seasons for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Texas Rangers to win on the ML

Senzatela  goes for the NY Mets, my cross reference power rankings suggest he does not matchup well agains them.Left-handed hitters are batting  .340  vs the Rockies righty.

Meanwhile, the Mets starter deGrom was limited to 89 pitches Saturday due to a hip issue, and is not 100% entering this game which could easily put a dent in his effectiveness, which is never a good thing vs a sometimes explosive Colorado side.

Note:The Mets have homered in 13 straight games at Citi Field, the most since it opened in 2009.

Over is 7-1 in Rockies last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Over is 8-2 in Rockies last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 4-0 in deGroms last 4 starts overall.

NY METS are 24-13 OVER in night games this season with an average of 10.1 rpg. NY METS are 21-11 OVER vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season with a combined average of 10.2 rpg. 

COLORADO is 17-8 OVER vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start this season with a combined average of 12.3 rpg.

Play on the OVER

Cardinals RH Miles Mikolas (4-5, 4.41 ERA) vs. Cubs LH Cole Hamels (4-2, 3.62)

Mikolas threw seven innings and allowed six hits and one run Friday vs. the Cubs in a no-decision after the Cardinals walked off in the 10th inning. Pitching his way out of several jams, he completed his seventh quality start of the year. Mikolas has pitched well in seven career games against Chicago , five of them starts  and has garnered a  3-0 record along with a 1.31 ERA.

Cubs are 3-7 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.Cubs are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.

HAMELS the Cubs starter is 2-11  against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

 MIKOLAS is 10-1  against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) MIKOLAS is 13-2 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

Cardinals are 11-2 in Mikolas' last 13 starts vs. a team with a winning record.Cardinals are 5-1 in Mikolas' last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.Cardinals are 16-5 in Mikolas' last 21 road starts.Cardinals are 12-4 in Mikolas' last 16 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.Cardinals are 21-7 in Mikolas' last 28 starts.

ST LOUIS is 11-0 against the money line after scoring 3 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.ST LOUIS is 21-4  against the money line after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on the St.Louis Cards to win on the ML

PAT CORBIN (L) vs. JOEY LUCCHESI (L)

This series opens Thursday night with a matchup of left-handers and the Nationals' Patrick Corbin (5-3, 3.46) against the Padres' Joey Lucchesi (4-3, 3.96). 

The Fathers starter hurler according to my cross reference power rankings dies not matchup well vs the Nationals batting order. Luchessi has given up six runs (five earned) on 15 hits  in nine innings for a 5.00 ERA, a 1.889 WHIP and a .366 opponents' batting average in two career starts. Meanwhile,Corbin the Nationals starter  is 3-2 with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.165 WHIP in his last five starts, including a complete-game shutout and gets my support here today. Note: SAN DIEGO is 15-32 against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last 2 seasons. 

Washington is rolling right now winning 9 of their L/11 and have a great deal of momentum on this sides. WASHINGTON is 31-14 against the money line in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN DIEGO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs are 36-72 L/22 seasons for a 67% go against  conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Washington Nationals on the ML

PAT CORBIN (L) vs. JOEY LUCCHESI (L)

This series opens Thursday night with a matchup of left-handers and the Nationals' Patrick Corbin (5-3, 3.46) against the Padres' Joey Lucchesi (4-3, 3.96). 

These are two pretty good hurlers, but my projections estimate a total closer to 8 to 8.5 which makes this a recommended over play.

Over is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 during game 1 of a series.Over is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Over is 3-1-1 in Nationals last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.Over is 5-2-1 in Nationals last 8 road games.

Over is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 overall.Over is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 6-0-1 in Padres last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 on grass.Over is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 home games.Over is 3-0-2 in Padres last 5 games following a loss.Over is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 vs. National League East.

SAN DIEGO is 10-1 OVER  when playing against a team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season with a combined average of 12.1 rpg scored.SAN DIEGO is 31-18 OVER  when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 8.8 rpg scored.

MLB Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (SAN DIEGO) - with a team on base percentage .300 or worse on the season (NL), in June games are 87-41 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Braves RH Kevin Gausman (2-4, 5.56 ERA) vs. Pirates RH Joe Musgrove (3-6, 4.57)

Braves starter Gausman is off a down effort but he matches up well vs the Pirates as last season he allowed one earned run in 14 innings vs. the Bucks last year. With that said, Im backing him to have a solid bounce back effort here today in Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, Pirates starter Musgrobe is off a nasty May as he allowed 30 runs in 30 innings over six starts and until he rights his ship is fade material. 

ATLANTA is 12-2 against the money line in road games vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons. 

PITTSBURGH is 2-11  against the money line in home games vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.PITTSBURGH is 7-20  against the money line with a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season (NL) this season. MUSGROVE is 3-13  against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) 

Play on the Atlanta Braves to win on the ML

Reds RH Luis Castillo (5-1, 2.45 ERA) vs. Cardinals LH Genesis Cabrera (0-1, 7.36)

This kid Genesis Cabrera looked timid in his first start but he established a  99 miles per hour fastball that helped him strike out the side in the second inning of a ugly outing. Cabrera went 32-27 with a 3.87 ERA in 103 minor league games (81 starts), allowing 423 hits with 439 strikeouts in 476 2/3 innings. Lots of promise here by this fireballer who Im betting will fair much better here today, vs a Reds team my power rankings suggest he matches up well against. Meanwhile, Castillo the Reds starter , after a fast start has garnered a 5.40 ERA in his L/3 starts and is fade material in his current form.

The Cards have won 4 straight and bring momentum into this tilt, making them a play on investment option vs a side they matchup well against overall.

Reds are 43-88 in the last 131 meetings in St. Louis.Reds are 10-22 in the last 32 meetings.

 Reds are 6-14 in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Reds are 7-23 in their last 30 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

Cardinals are 10-4 in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

ST LOUIS is 10-1 against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.T LOUIS is 11-2 against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.ST LOUIS is 25-6  against the money line after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners on base over the last 3 seasons. 

Play on the St.Louis Cards to win on the ML

 Marlins RH Pablo Lopez (3-5, 4.99 ERA) vs. Brewers RH Chase Anderson (3-0, 3.31)

Lopez faced the Brewers once in 2018, giving up five runs in six innings at Miami on July 10.  He pitched well at home this season, but on the road he has garnered a bloated 8.26 ERA with opposing batters hitting .303 along with 7 HRS. Im betting on the Brewers doing some damage today, and a for a up trending Miami offence to do enough damage vs Anderson the Brewers starter to get us over the total here today. Note: Miami has won 11 of its last 16 games after posting back-to-back 9-3 victories over San Diego.  

Over is 4-1 in Andersons last 5 starts vs. National League East.

MIAMI is 15-4 OVER in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better over the last 2 seasons.

Over is 36-17-2 in Marlins last 55 during game 1 of a series.Over is 7-2 in Brewers last 9 games following an off day.Over is 6-2-1 in Brewers last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Over is 8-3-1 in Brewers last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

 Over is 9-3-1 in the last 13 meetings in Milwaukee.Over is 33-15-3 in the last 51 meetings.

Play on the OVER